WEBVTT - Week 16 NFL Best Bets (Ep. 70) 0:00:13.720 --> 0:00:16.200 And everybody. Welcome back to another episode of the Betting 0:00:16.200 --> 0:00:18.959 Pros NFL podcast. I'm your host, Dan Harris. With me, 0:00:19.000 --> 0:00:21.320 of course, is Matt Parul. Find us on Twitter at 0:00:21.360 --> 0:00:24.480 Dan Harris Ady and at Sports Talk Matt Matt. Week sixteen. 0:00:24.640 --> 0:00:27.720 We dodged a bullet last week. 0:00:27.760 --> 0:00:30.200 It was our week for everyone, Week fifteen. 0:00:30.680 --> 0:00:32.960 Week fifteen, we dodged a bullet last week. Oh this 0:00:33.120 --> 0:00:34.120 is week What? 0:00:34.320 --> 0:00:35.120 This is Week sixteen? 0:00:35.320 --> 0:00:37.600 Yes, welcome to the Week sixteen. We dodged the bullet 0:00:37.640 --> 0:00:39.440 last week. What did I say? 0:00:39.520 --> 0:00:41.559 You just kind of ran things together, like my. 0:00:41.520 --> 0:00:43.519 Eight podcast of the day already. Man, I don't want 0:00:43.520 --> 0:00:44.400 to hear this go ahead? 0:00:44.400 --> 0:00:46.920 Why do I need the gospel bullet? We dodged a bullet. 0:00:47.080 --> 0:00:51.080 Come up, it's week sixteen. But yes, yes, we did dodge. 0:00:51.240 --> 0:00:52.440 I mean it was one of those things where I 0:00:52.479 --> 0:00:53.880 got up in the morning and you were like, how 0:00:53.880 --> 0:00:55.120 do you feel about the picks? And I said, I 0:00:55.160 --> 0:00:58.000 hate them, yes, And it was just a gut feeling 0:00:58.200 --> 0:01:00.000 that it was going to be a really bad weekend 0:01:00.120 --> 0:01:03.360 for a lot of people. And it was a bloodbath 0:01:03.360 --> 0:01:04.680 in a lot of ways. I mean, it was just 0:01:04.920 --> 0:01:07.400 horrific for so many teams and so many people. I 0:01:07.440 --> 0:01:09.360 mean for me in the Westgate and for me in 0:01:09.600 --> 0:01:11.560 the circa contests that I'm in in the other I 0:01:11.600 --> 0:01:14.119 got eviscerated all four and one in the West Gate. 0:01:14.400 --> 0:01:15.119 Oh it is bad. 0:01:15.160 --> 0:01:17.720 I got annihilated in the West Gate. It was just 0:01:17.760 --> 0:01:21.680 one of those weeks where everything kind of screwy happened, 0:01:22.160 --> 0:01:25.600 and it just my goodness, gracious, I am glad we 0:01:25.640 --> 0:01:29.160 did not take this week and we used our last lifeline. 0:01:29.240 --> 0:01:32.280 Well, so it's interesting we would have gone two and three. 0:01:32.319 --> 0:01:34.240 I looked back on what we had, so, I mean, 0:01:34.280 --> 0:01:36.520 it would have knocked us out of any sort of conspidration, 0:01:36.600 --> 0:01:38.320 but that would probably that would have been the best 0:01:38.360 --> 0:01:40.160 that you would have done in any of your contests, 0:01:40.160 --> 0:01:42.360 because we would have lost on the Pats getting two 0:01:42.400 --> 0:01:44.360 and a half from the Dolphins, the Vikings laying three 0:01:44.360 --> 0:01:47.520 and a half to the Bears, and the Rams slightly 0:01:47.560 --> 0:01:50.400 didn't cover the laying sixteen and a half to the Jets. 0:01:50.640 --> 0:01:52.120 How did I feel about that? By the way, you, 0:01:52.160 --> 0:01:53.040 being a Jet fan. 0:01:54.000 --> 0:01:57.560 I think that it surprises me that every year they 0:01:57.600 --> 0:02:01.000 find a new way to make you hate being a jetsman, 0:02:01.280 --> 0:02:03.800 And this was one of the worst I mean, I'm 0:02:03.920 --> 0:02:07.280 literally like none of that. Again, you know, obviously I'm 0:02:07.280 --> 0:02:09.840 a fantasy guy, but in a very important fantasy matchup, 0:02:09.960 --> 0:02:12.560 I had the Rams defense, which is something where you're like, 0:02:12.560 --> 0:02:15.120 this is guaranteed we're gonna go It was terrible. All 0:02:15.280 --> 0:02:17.360 It's terrible. That is what they do. And again, at 0:02:17.360 --> 0:02:18.960 the beginning of the season, when I realized that they 0:02:18.960 --> 0:02:22.000 were an historically terrible team, I was like, they'll still 0:02:22.000 --> 0:02:24.120 find a way to go four and twelve and get 0:02:24.160 --> 0:02:26.600 like the sixth pick and nobody will care because that's 0:02:26.600 --> 0:02:28.880 what they do. But then I really bought in. I 0:02:28.960 --> 0:02:30.920 really bought into the A and sixteen. How are they 0:02:30.919 --> 0:02:33.640 gonna win a game, especially against the Rams. So yeah, 0:02:33.720 --> 0:02:36.079 I feel terrible about it, But we'll talk about it, Matt, 0:02:36.120 --> 0:02:38.760 and you mentioned it on the Daily Juice. But what 0:02:38.800 --> 0:02:41.080 we're gonna see this weekend from the Jaguars, we'll. 0:02:40.880 --> 0:02:43.959 Talk about that. It's the Doug Moron for revenge game. 0:02:43.800 --> 0:02:46.480 What I'm saying. But let's hope, let's hope that we 0:02:46.520 --> 0:02:49.160 get there. We would have hit on the Browns laying 0:02:49.160 --> 0:02:51.040 four and a half to the Giants and the Cowboys. 0:02:51.080 --> 0:02:52.480 Kudos to you, by the way, because I did not 0:02:52.520 --> 0:02:54.919 love that game whatsoever. The Cowboys laying three and a 0:02:54.960 --> 0:02:56.760 half to the forty nine ers, so we would have 0:02:56.800 --> 0:02:58.760 gone two and three. But to the extent we're still 0:02:58.800 --> 0:03:00.639 in contention, which we are all get in a second, 0:03:00.919 --> 0:03:03.400 we would have lost that one. So we not a 0:03:03.400 --> 0:03:06.200 good week for anybody though. And the thing about the contest, Matt, 0:03:06.240 --> 0:03:08.680 So we are thirty six and twenty nine. That's fifty 0:03:08.680 --> 0:03:11.000 five point four percent. That's that's good. And I think 0:03:11.000 --> 0:03:13.239 we're in like one hundred and fiftieth place out of 0:03:13.360 --> 0:03:16.040 seven hundred whatever people, So that's pretty good. Now, if 0:03:16.040 --> 0:03:17.600 we went five and oh this week, it would be 0:03:17.680 --> 0:03:21.000 fifty eight point six percent. That is right on the 0:03:21.080 --> 0:03:23.880 border right now of cashing. I'm not one hundred percent 0:03:23.880 --> 0:03:25.880 positive it would make. It would really depend on how 0:03:25.919 --> 0:03:28.239 the people in front of us did. But that might 0:03:28.360 --> 0:03:32.040 actually cash, which is pretty huge in this tournament, which 0:03:32.040 --> 0:03:34.440 is a fifteen hundred dollars buy in, So people aren't 0:03:34.480 --> 0:03:36.480 going in being like all right, whatver, I'm just good. 0:03:36.520 --> 0:03:38.480 You know, they know what they're doing in this one. 0:03:38.560 --> 0:03:40.600 So we got a shot, but we pretty much have 0:03:40.720 --> 0:03:43.080 to go five and oh. Now the lines just came 0:03:43.080 --> 0:03:45.200 out for the tournament. I checked last night. They weren't out. 0:03:45.200 --> 0:03:47.200 I just sent them to you, so I'd kind of 0:03:47.200 --> 0:03:49.280 looked at the lines based on where the consensus was 0:03:49.320 --> 0:03:51.880 in the market without knowing these. So my feelings on 0:03:51.960 --> 0:03:54.160 some of them might change a little bit, but we'll 0:03:54.200 --> 0:03:57.000 have to see. So, Matt, early just impressions, How do 0:03:57.040 --> 0:03:58.240 you feel about the lines generally? 0:03:58.440 --> 0:04:00.480 Well, let me ask you this question is into this. 0:04:00.800 --> 0:04:03.400 Do you believe in game theory or are we picking 0:04:03.440 --> 0:04:06.040 games based upon who wins as if we were betting money. 0:04:06.240 --> 0:04:09.520 This is a fantastic question, Matt, A fantastic question because 0:04:09.520 --> 0:04:11.440 I thought about this a lot. Are we trying to 0:04:11.480 --> 0:04:13.640 be contrarian in this to try to win money? 0:04:14.640 --> 0:04:14.920 For me? 0:04:15.120 --> 0:04:17.600 Matt, I really think that the bottom line is we 0:04:17.680 --> 0:04:20.480 need to go five and oh. So, if there is 0:04:20.680 --> 0:04:22.800 a something where it's like we've got two games that 0:04:22.839 --> 0:04:25.880 we feel equally pretty good about, one of them is 0:04:26.080 --> 0:04:28.320 probably one that's going to be a little bit contrarian, 0:04:28.480 --> 0:04:30.840 I will opt for that one. But I'm not looking 0:04:31.160 --> 0:04:34.000 to be like, well, let's go with this because they'll 0:04:34.040 --> 0:04:36.520 never see this one coming, Like, we gotta make our 0:04:36.560 --> 0:04:38.600 best picks. We gotta go five and oh So, whichever 0:04:38.640 --> 0:04:40.240 way it comes out is fine. What about you, what 0:04:40.279 --> 0:04:41.039 do you think you would do? 0:04:41.640 --> 0:04:45.640 I think being contrarian as much as possible is important 0:04:45.960 --> 0:04:50.280 yes here, And because it is our last week, and 0:04:50.320 --> 0:04:53.600 because we have a shot at it, I do think 0:04:53.680 --> 0:04:55.679 we need to be a little bit on the game 0:04:55.720 --> 0:04:59.280 theory side versus the pick theory side, just because it 0:04:59.320 --> 0:05:02.479 could lead us if we go five and oh, and 0:05:02.880 --> 0:05:05.240 I mean we can hold serve and there's nothing wrong 0:05:05.279 --> 0:05:07.680 with holding serve. Yeah, but we're not trying to hold 0:05:07.720 --> 0:05:09.880 serve right now. We're outside the money at one p fifty, 0:05:10.279 --> 0:05:12.680 so we're trying to get in. So let's be a 0:05:12.680 --> 0:05:14.880 little bit more on the aggressive side when it comes 0:05:14.920 --> 0:05:17.919 to fading, you know, where what we think may actually 0:05:18.040 --> 0:05:20.479 happen here because I think it could lead us to 0:05:20.600 --> 0:05:22.159 you know, if we do go five and oh, we 0:05:22.160 --> 0:05:23.719 could find ourselves right in a good spot. 0:05:24.040 --> 0:05:26.360 So the biggest thing that I will say, well, there 0:05:26.360 --> 0:05:28.400 are two things really. Number one that's Wednesday. Okay, we 0:05:28.480 --> 0:05:30.680 usually record this on Thursday. We have a little bit 0:05:30.680 --> 0:05:33.560 more information, we have a little bit more time to digest. 0:05:33.839 --> 0:05:36.799 So this is an important week for us, of course. 0:05:36.839 --> 0:05:39.080 So Matt, as you always do, you talk to people 0:05:39.240 --> 0:05:41.200 who are in the know. You get convinced one way 0:05:41.240 --> 0:05:43.480 or another, so you can follow up. So this week, more 0:05:43.520 --> 0:05:46.359 than any other week, it's going to be our like 0:05:46.640 --> 0:05:51.120 proposed picks, but we definitely may change often. But number two, 0:05:51.160 --> 0:05:54.120 of course, as much as people who listen to this podcast, 0:05:54.160 --> 0:05:56.520 and we love them all, I'm sure are very interested 0:05:56.640 --> 0:05:58.800 in how we are pursuing the Draft Kings Championship. Of 0:05:58.839 --> 0:06:01.640 course they also want betting. It's like guard let's for them. 0:06:01.920 --> 0:06:04.040 So we will of course not just be like, well, 0:06:04.080 --> 0:06:06.039 this might be the play, but we're going contraria to 0:06:06.040 --> 0:06:07.719 go here, like we'll make it clear which way our 0:06:07.839 --> 0:06:11.160 leans are. So all right, Matt, you've got the Lions 0:06:11.200 --> 0:06:13.400 now and again you can look at wherever you at it. 0:06:13.440 --> 0:06:16.080 There are certain things where the Draftking lines. There are 0:06:16.080 --> 0:06:18.320 some that are better than the consensus, some that are worse. 0:06:18.680 --> 0:06:20.080 So what do you think you can start us off? 0:06:20.120 --> 0:06:21.719 What's your number one play this week? 0:06:21.960 --> 0:06:24.920 Now, let me just say I we've just now had 0:06:24.960 --> 0:06:27.240 a chance to go through it, so like my order 0:06:27.320 --> 0:06:30.120 of favorite plays are probably going to change here. Yeah, 0:06:30.360 --> 0:06:34.200 we've got games on Friday, Saturday and Sunday, right, yes, sir, Okay, 0:06:34.279 --> 0:06:36.040 So this is a little bit of a weird week. 0:06:36.400 --> 0:06:38.880 Do we know the rules on the DraftKings? If we 0:06:38.920 --> 0:06:41.960 play Friday, can we play Saturday and Sunday without having 0:06:42.000 --> 0:06:44.840 to give them all in? Yes, so the Friday rules 0:06:44.839 --> 0:06:48.160 and Saturday rules apply like it's a Thursday game, correct. Okay, 0:06:48.240 --> 0:06:50.160 So I like that, so we actually can kind of go, 0:06:50.480 --> 0:06:51.440 you know, day by day. 0:06:51.520 --> 0:06:53.520 So just so you know, Matt, here are the rules. Okay, 0:06:53.520 --> 0:06:55.880 when you make a pick, you have to put in 0:06:55.920 --> 0:06:58.320 all five of your picks to enter any pick, but 0:06:58.480 --> 0:07:02.760 you can edit your picks up until Sunday morning at 0:07:02.800 --> 0:07:05.400 ten am. Perfect. If you make all your picks, you 0:07:05.440 --> 0:07:07.040 want a Saturday game, you put them in now. If 0:07:07.040 --> 0:07:08.600 you change your mind before the Saturday game, you just 0:07:08.680 --> 0:07:10.480 change it like before the kickoffs, so you can do 0:07:10.520 --> 0:07:11.200 whatever they want. 0:07:11.520 --> 0:07:15.880 I love that. That's great in terms of right now 0:07:15.920 --> 0:07:20.880 where I sit. Okay, I personally think the La Rams 0:07:20.920 --> 0:07:23.160 catching one and a half points yea in the bounce 0:07:23.240 --> 0:07:27.640 back of bounce back spots. I got them catching points 0:07:27.680 --> 0:07:30.160 in a game that they have to win against Seattle, 0:07:30.240 --> 0:07:34.080 and I don't think Seattle's all that good in particular defensively, 0:07:34.480 --> 0:07:36.480 you could say that the Rams are looking ahead to 0:07:36.520 --> 0:07:38.240 this game because this is for the division. This is 0:07:38.280 --> 0:07:41.120 a divisional game. They had the lead by a game, 0:07:41.480 --> 0:07:43.120 so they guess they had a game in hand. They 0:07:43.120 --> 0:07:45.840 could technically lose it and still win the division if 0:07:45.840 --> 0:07:48.640 they beat Seattle. They have to win this game. I 0:07:48.680 --> 0:07:50.160 think the Rams win the game outright. 0:07:50.480 --> 0:07:54.119 Yeah, I'll put in pencil for now, But I'm almost 0:07:54.120 --> 0:07:55.520 sure that's going to be one of our picks because 0:07:55.560 --> 0:07:58.520 I have it as well. I have a little trepidation 0:07:58.640 --> 0:08:01.720 with it match just because I do think golf. Well, 0:08:01.760 --> 0:08:04.800 it's Jared, this is exactly correct, right, Like, didn't we 0:08:04.920 --> 0:08:07.880 kind of think like we got to be past this 0:08:07.960 --> 0:08:09.840 type of effort that we saw from the Jets. But 0:08:10.120 --> 0:08:13.440 if you can go that route and lose that game, 0:08:13.520 --> 0:08:15.520 I don't care about how much of a letdown spot, 0:08:15.520 --> 0:08:18.000 how much you're looking past it whatever. That was one 0:08:18.080 --> 0:08:21.160 of the worst played games I have ever seen in 0:08:21.200 --> 0:08:24.080 my life. The Jets didn't play well in that whatever 0:08:24.280 --> 0:08:27.480 that was the Rams. Man, it was really remarkable to 0:08:27.520 --> 0:08:30.640 see that. So it's a little worrisome. At the same time, 0:08:31.200 --> 0:08:33.199 if we're thinking about this game, it's the best thing 0:08:33.200 --> 0:08:35.920 that could happen to the Rams, because you know, this right, 0:08:35.960 --> 0:08:38.280 This is a And I also, what do you think 0:08:38.640 --> 0:08:40.440 this is going to? Do you think the public's gonna 0:08:40.440 --> 0:08:41.760 come in down the Seahawks here? Do you think they're 0:08:41.760 --> 0:08:43.120 going to see what happened last week and be a 0:08:43.200 --> 0:08:44.760 very public play for the Seahawks? 0:08:44.760 --> 0:08:46.720 And I think there's a good chance of it. I 0:08:46.760 --> 0:08:50.040 think you'll see some public sharper, smarter people maybe come 0:08:50.080 --> 0:08:51.080 back on the rams. 0:08:51.200 --> 0:08:51.400 Yep. 0:08:51.440 --> 0:08:53.440 But I do think you're going to see this line 0:08:53.480 --> 0:08:56.920 climb at least approaching kickoff with public people coming in 0:08:57.000 --> 0:08:59.400 saying Seattle's the best team in the division. The here 0:08:59.440 --> 0:09:02.520 comes ste came Metcalf, yep. I just I watched Aaron 0:09:02.600 --> 0:09:05.839 Donald leave the field and how mad he was when 0:09:05.880 --> 0:09:08.559 he left the field. I was like, oh, I am 0:09:08.640 --> 0:09:11.320 feeling bad for Russ next week because that guy's gonna 0:09:11.320 --> 0:09:12.120 be on the ship. 0:09:12.240 --> 0:09:14.280 And the thing is they're not playing that well, the 0:09:14.320 --> 0:09:16.520 Seahawks right now. They haven't played well in a long time. 0:09:16.600 --> 0:09:19.079 You know. Russ's is not, you know, playing as well. 0:09:19.120 --> 0:09:21.320 He's getting his butt kicked a little bit, he's holding 0:09:21.360 --> 0:09:23.520 the ball a little bit too long, and yeah, DK 0:09:23.640 --> 0:09:26.960 Metcalf always has the chance to make giant plays, but 0:09:27.080 --> 0:09:30.160 Tyler Lockett hasn't been involved really at all. The Rams 0:09:30.160 --> 0:09:32.240 are gonna be so pissed after this game. Now cam 0:09:32.240 --> 0:09:34.600 Makers is out. That does hurt because A is an 0:09:34.679 --> 0:09:37.040 upgrade over Daryl Hunterson and Malcolm Brown. I just don't 0:09:37.040 --> 0:09:40.720 think it's enough so divisional game. You know, it's one 0:09:40.760 --> 0:09:42.679 and a half points, but I do like it. I 0:09:42.720 --> 0:09:44.040 think the Rams are going to win this game out 0:09:44.080 --> 0:09:46.040 Like I have sprinkled some of the money line already, 0:09:46.080 --> 0:09:48.000 so I do think that they're gonna get it. So yep, 0:09:48.040 --> 0:09:50.320 I'm good with it. Let's put it there, all right, Matt. 0:09:50.440 --> 0:09:53.280 We're gonna get ugly this week. And I mentioned it 0:09:53.400 --> 0:09:58.800 a little bit before, but I realize that the Bears are, 0:09:59.640 --> 0:10:02.280 you know, in the hunt and playing well, and the 0:10:02.360 --> 0:10:05.319 Jaguars are terrible, and they may be down James Robinson 0:10:05.400 --> 0:10:09.480 right now, but I think that Gardner Minshew is going 0:10:09.520 --> 0:10:12.160 to be able to keep this game at roughly a 0:10:12.200 --> 0:10:15.520 touchdown or closer. And this just strikes me as a 0:10:15.520 --> 0:10:17.920 way to fade the Bears. And again you mentioned on 0:10:18.000 --> 0:10:20.440 The Juice, which I loved. It was maybe my favorite 0:10:20.440 --> 0:10:23.960 moment on The Daily Juice where you aptly pointed out 0:10:24.200 --> 0:10:27.040 Doug Marron don't care. Okay, no, he's gone. He's not 0:10:27.160 --> 0:10:31.160 coaching this team next year, does he really is? He like, man, 0:10:31.200 --> 0:10:33.720 we got a tank so we can get Trevor Lawrence. 0:10:33.720 --> 0:10:35.840 I mean, think about Adam Gase. Adam Gase isn't tanking. 0:10:35.880 --> 0:10:38.040 Adam Gase isn't here next year. They don't care. He's 0:10:38.080 --> 0:10:40.520 not going to tank. The team plays hard. They don't 0:10:40.520 --> 0:10:43.600 have the horses, but they play hard. Gardner Minshew again, 0:10:43.640 --> 0:10:45.960 I mean, Baltimore was completely out of their league. I 0:10:45.960 --> 0:10:48.400 don't think the Bears necessarily are. I think you know 0:10:48.440 --> 0:10:51.040 that the defense is good, but it's mainly the run defense. 0:10:51.080 --> 0:10:53.160 I think Mitchell will be able to move the ball, 0:10:53.480 --> 0:10:56.400 passing it and keep it close enough where it'll be 0:10:56.440 --> 0:10:59.559 within a touchdown at seven and a half at home. 0:11:00.080 --> 0:11:02.440 It's ugly, but I actually like the Jaguars here. 0:11:02.800 --> 0:11:04.720 I think they moved. They might win the game out right. 0:11:04.880 --> 0:11:06.720 Yes, I kind of think that too. 0:11:08.400 --> 0:11:11.760 This is what I really after listening to the clip 0:11:12.480 --> 0:11:14.839 of Doug Maron when he was asked about tanking after 0:11:14.880 --> 0:11:17.680 the game, saying, you know, the Jets they've lost here. 0:11:18.160 --> 0:11:20.360 You know, what is your philosophy? What do you do? 0:11:20.440 --> 0:11:23.880 Over his last two games, and he was angry when 0:11:23.920 --> 0:11:26.840 he answered it. It wasn't like a, well, you know, 0:11:27.320 --> 0:11:28.800 we're gonna go out there and do our best. And 0:11:28.960 --> 0:11:31.280 you know, he was like, we're not tanking. What are 0:11:31.320 --> 0:11:34.240 you talking about. We're not losing, We're not doing that. 0:11:34.320 --> 0:11:37.120 And I went, oh my gosh, this guy knows he's fired. 0:11:37.440 --> 0:11:42.400 And Trevor Lawrence going to Jacksonville guarantees he's fired. There's 0:11:42.440 --> 0:11:45.319 no way they let that guy go anywhere near Trevor Lawrence. 0:11:45.679 --> 0:11:48.199 So why in the world would he want to lose? 0:11:48.520 --> 0:11:51.320 Why would he want to tank for a kid, a 0:11:51.400 --> 0:11:54.839 quarterback he'll never coach, and he's angry he's losing his job. 0:11:54.880 --> 0:11:56.840 It's human nature, right, you know you're fired, you're a 0:11:56.840 --> 0:12:00.640 dead man walking. What's the best way to just stick 0:12:00.679 --> 0:12:04.160 it to your employer? Win? I think they could win 0:12:04.200 --> 0:12:04.880 the game out right. 0:12:05.240 --> 0:12:08.560 I I'm not gonna lie. I also have just a 0:12:08.679 --> 0:12:10.959 tiny bit a time because's like plus three hundred or 0:12:10.960 --> 0:12:12.880 whatever for the Jags on the money line, because I 0:12:12.880 --> 0:12:15.800 do think that there's a chance I can win. But again, realistically, 0:12:15.840 --> 0:12:19.560 the Jaguars, they've covered several times where you've been like, 0:12:19.559 --> 0:12:21.800 what are you talking about? Like they managed to keep 0:12:21.800 --> 0:12:23.880 a game close, and again, as many points as the 0:12:23.880 --> 0:12:26.200 Bears have put up lately is as much as you know, 0:12:26.280 --> 0:12:30.120 Dave Montgomery is really playing well and Mischal Trubisky is 0:12:30.400 --> 0:12:32.800 you know, passable at this moment. I just think that 0:12:33.080 --> 0:12:35.560 you're gonna see Gardner Minshew be able to put up 0:12:35.600 --> 0:12:38.320 some points enough to keep close with them, and again 0:12:39.000 --> 0:12:42.640 talk about tanking Matt like, I realistically think no team 0:12:42.920 --> 0:12:46.000 actually says we we are. Like, if you're out on 0:12:46.040 --> 0:12:48.520 the football field, for the most part, you're I don't 0:12:48.559 --> 0:12:50.000 think teams go out there and are like, I'm just 0:12:50.040 --> 0:12:52.280 gonna kind of olay this guy. Not you see teams 0:12:52.280 --> 0:12:54.040 maybe being like I'm not gonna put my health at 0:12:54.120 --> 0:12:57.040 risk by tackling this guy, or maybe not like that, 0:12:57.080 --> 0:12:59.120 but they try, you play to win the game, and 0:12:59.200 --> 0:13:01.880 especially a code who is coaching, Like no coach wants 0:13:01.880 --> 0:13:03.560 to be like I'm tanking on purpose to do this, 0:13:03.640 --> 0:13:06.160 so they're gonna play to win. So yeah, I like 0:13:06.200 --> 0:13:07.719 it over touch. And I wanted to see what the 0:13:07.720 --> 0:13:09.800 spread was in the DraftKings contest because it was seven 0:13:09.840 --> 0:13:12.440 and a half generally speaking, once to see in the contest, 0:13:12.520 --> 0:13:14.360 it's also seven and a half. So if you're good 0:13:14.360 --> 0:13:15.160 with that, I'm good with it. 0:13:15.640 --> 0:13:18.040 All right. So we got favorite we go dog with 0:13:18.080 --> 0:13:20.520 the Rams, dog with the Jags. I got one more dog, 0:13:20.559 --> 0:13:24.040 dogg I want to talk about, okay, and I think 0:13:24.080 --> 0:13:26.520 this is you want to talk ugly? All right? This 0:13:26.600 --> 0:13:27.040 is ugly. 0:13:27.400 --> 0:13:29.480 Oh okay, it's not what I'm thinking I've got. I've 0:13:29.480 --> 0:13:31.559 got a dog that I'm I'm hope I was hoping 0:13:31.559 --> 0:13:32.839 that you'd get to but it's not gonna go. 0:13:33.080 --> 0:13:35.000 This is this is ugly because I'm gonna ride a 0:13:35.040 --> 0:13:38.959 backup quarterback to do something here, and I'm gonna take 0:13:39.040 --> 0:13:42.480 Vegas at plus three and a half against the against 0:13:42.520 --> 0:13:46.160 the Dolphins. The Patriots should have won that game, all right. 0:13:46.240 --> 0:13:49.080 It was right there. There were so many chances for them. 0:13:49.160 --> 0:13:52.520 And just Cam Newton can't do anything. Okay, he just 0:13:52.640 --> 0:13:55.600 can't throw, he can't run. I don't think that Dolphins 0:13:55.679 --> 0:13:58.280 defense is playing very well, and I know that Dolphins 0:13:58.360 --> 0:14:01.480 offense is not playing very well. I think the Raiders, 0:14:01.520 --> 0:14:04.480 they're healthy. They've got to win the game to stay 0:14:04.480 --> 0:14:07.160 in the playoff chase. This is it. They lose the game, 0:14:07.200 --> 0:14:10.439 they're done. Their entire seasons on the line. I think 0:14:10.559 --> 0:14:13.079 jobs are on the line. I think coaches jobs are 0:14:13.080 --> 0:14:15.280 on the line. We've already seen the DC get fired 0:14:15.320 --> 0:14:17.640 in Vegas. I think you could see more coaches getting 0:14:17.640 --> 0:14:20.440 fired because Gruden is gonna get really angry, and he 0:14:20.600 --> 0:14:23.720 likes Mariota. He thinks Marcus Mariota is Something's White gave 0:14:23.800 --> 0:14:26.640 him a two year, seventeen million dollar contract to play 0:14:26.720 --> 0:14:29.520 quarterback for this spot. Mariota's playing for a job. He 0:14:29.520 --> 0:14:32.200 could wind up. Look what Cam Cam got a starting job? 0:14:32.320 --> 0:14:34.760 Why couldn't Marcus Mariota get a starting job next year? 0:14:35.440 --> 0:14:37.880 I think at plus three and a half, I'm getting 0:14:37.880 --> 0:14:39.680 more than a field goal. That hook matters to me. 0:14:40.280 --> 0:14:42.080 I don't think that Dolphins offense is that great. I 0:14:42.080 --> 0:14:44.080 know the defense for the Raiders gets no pressure. I 0:14:44.160 --> 0:14:46.960 understand that, but I think that this is a game 0:14:47.000 --> 0:14:49.000 where the offense can put points up. I'll take the 0:14:49.040 --> 0:14:50.280 three and a half in the Raiders. 0:14:51.160 --> 0:14:53.320 So all right, So a couple ugly? 0:14:53.840 --> 0:14:54.440 It is ugly. 0:14:54.520 --> 0:14:56.160 Oh, it's likely there are a couple. I have a 0:14:56.160 --> 0:14:58.920 couple questions. First of all, I've been assuming based on 0:14:59.000 --> 0:15:02.440 the injury sound pretty bad. That cars up. But he's 0:15:02.480 --> 0:15:04.800 splitting reps here in practice with Marios. 0:15:04.840 --> 0:15:07.720 There's no way this dude's playing. I mean I could play, 0:15:07.800 --> 0:15:11.040 I guess, but like I am banking on a backup quarterback. 0:15:11.080 --> 0:15:14.080 He tours coin. Yeah, I mean it was not It 0:15:14.120 --> 0:15:16.000 was not pretty. I mean, yes, as a quarterback you 0:15:16.000 --> 0:15:18.360 don't have to run. You can kind of stand back 0:15:18.360 --> 0:15:20.200 there if you can move around a little bit, right, 0:15:20.280 --> 0:15:23.680 But given how fluid Mariota was, and yes, he threw 0:15:23.720 --> 0:15:26.360 behind his receivers like crazy, but he did have that 0:15:26.440 --> 0:15:28.920 drop in the bucket throw to Waller which was pretty 0:15:28.960 --> 0:15:29.880 nice for a touchdown. 0:15:30.280 --> 0:15:32.880 So he played very well. He played very well in 0:15:32.920 --> 0:15:35.040 that game overall, like completely coming off the. 0:15:35.040 --> 0:15:36.320 Bench cold, he definitely played well. 0:15:36.400 --> 0:15:39.840 Yes, yeah, So so it's interesting when I originally did 0:15:39.920 --> 0:15:42.000 my notes on it, I didn't really think about this 0:15:42.040 --> 0:15:44.600 game because it was three three and a half makes 0:15:44.640 --> 0:15:47.680 it far more indicing when I'm looking at it. And again, 0:15:48.080 --> 0:15:50.560 the what I like about this is that, I mean 0:15:51.160 --> 0:15:53.560 the split on the public in this The public's going 0:15:53.640 --> 0:15:55.920 to be all over the Dolphins, yes one right, because 0:15:55.960 --> 0:15:58.200 the Raiders, you know, they they looked, you know, well, 0:15:58.600 --> 0:16:01.000 a competent on national TV. But I got the backup quarterback. 0:16:01.240 --> 0:16:04.280 Everybody's starting to love the Dolphins At this point, I 0:16:04.360 --> 0:16:06.280 worry a little bit about what we're going to I mean, 0:16:06.320 --> 0:16:07.720 I get that the Raiders have to win. I just 0:16:07.760 --> 0:16:10.680 don't know whether or not the Raiders have the horses 0:16:11.160 --> 0:16:13.120 to win this game. I mean, Jacob's banged up. It's 0:16:13.160 --> 0:16:15.880 really Waller, like, it's really Waller at this point, the 0:16:15.920 --> 0:16:16.880 Dolphins the event. 0:16:17.400 --> 0:16:19.560 Was open though maryo to have missed agial He was 0:16:19.600 --> 0:16:22.200 always open and they always had on a prop bet 0:16:22.240 --> 0:16:24.360 I need nine more yards. He tried to be four, 0:16:24.400 --> 0:16:27.520 actually trying to be five more yards for Agalar, but 0:16:27.640 --> 0:16:29.600 he was open. He was opening a lot and Marrillar 0:16:29.720 --> 0:16:31.760 just missed him. So if he can get on the 0:16:31.760 --> 0:16:34.040 same page as him, it's not just Waller. I mean, 0:16:34.080 --> 0:16:36.680 I know you. I think Ruggs is going to be 0:16:36.680 --> 0:16:38.000 a really interesting case. 0:16:38.000 --> 0:16:39.840 And it cooks back, by the way, from the COVID 0:16:39.920 --> 0:16:41.280 nineteen list because he was on it. 0:16:41.480 --> 0:16:44.480 I don't know it was contact tracing, right, he he 0:16:44.600 --> 0:16:45.800 didn't have COVID right. 0:16:45.720 --> 0:16:46.680 He was, I don't think so. 0:16:46.840 --> 0:16:46.960 Right. 0:16:47.000 --> 0:16:48.520 Has he been activated though yet? 0:16:48.560 --> 0:16:50.680 I haven't seen it, But it just he hasn't been 0:16:50.920 --> 0:16:52.840 the weapon that we thought he was going to be 0:16:52.920 --> 0:16:56.560 in this offense. No, it's all Waller and it's all Jacobs, 0:16:56.600 --> 0:16:58.960 and the offensive line has gotten healthy er and it 0:16:58.960 --> 0:17:01.440 has been playing better or they're still not without I mean, 0:17:01.560 --> 0:17:04.280 the last incognito for the year and whatnot. But I 0:17:05.040 --> 0:17:07.359 just think this is like, this is the season, this 0:17:07.480 --> 0:17:10.760 is everything. And to lose by a field goal, yeah, 0:17:10.800 --> 0:17:12.760