Speaker 1: And everybody. Welcome back to another episode of the Betting
Speaker 1: Pros NFL podcast. I'm your host, Dan Harris. With me,
Speaker 1: of course, is Matt Parul. Find us on Twitter at
Speaker 1: Dan Harris Ady and at Sports Talk Matt Matt. Week sixteen.
Speaker 1: We dodged a bullet last week.
Speaker 2: It was our week for everyone, Week fifteen.
Speaker 1: Week fifteen, we dodged a bullet last week. Oh this
Speaker 1: is week What?
Speaker 2: This is Week sixteen?
Speaker 1: Yes, welcome to the Week sixteen. We dodged the bullet
Speaker 1: last week. What did I say?
Speaker 2: You just kind of ran things together, like my.
Speaker 1: Eight podcast of the day already. Man, I don't want
Speaker 1: to hear this go ahead?
Speaker 2: Why do I need the gospel bullet? We dodged a bullet.
Speaker 2: Come up, it's week sixteen. But yes, yes, we did dodge.
Speaker 2: I mean it was one of those things where I
Speaker 2: got up in the morning and you were like, how
Speaker 2: do you feel about the picks? And I said, I
Speaker 2: hate them, yes, And it was just a gut feeling
Speaker 2: that it was going to be a really bad weekend
Speaker 2: for a lot of people. And it was a bloodbath
Speaker 2: in a lot of ways. I mean, it was just
Speaker 2: horrific for so many teams and so many people. I
Speaker 2: mean for me in the Westgate and for me in
Speaker 2: the circa contests that I'm in in the other I
Speaker 2: got eviscerated all four and one in the West Gate.
Speaker 1: Oh it is bad.
Speaker 2: I got annihilated in the West Gate. It was just
Speaker 2: one of those weeks where everything kind of screwy happened,
Speaker 2: and it just my goodness, gracious, I am glad we
Speaker 2: did not take this week and we used our last lifeline.
Speaker 1: Well, so it's interesting we would have gone two and three.
Speaker 1: I looked back on what we had, so, I mean,
Speaker 1: it would have knocked us out of any sort of conspidration,
Speaker 1: but that would probably that would have been the best
Speaker 1: that you would have done in any of your contests,
Speaker 1: because we would have lost on the Pats getting two
Speaker 1: and a half from the Dolphins, the Vikings laying three
Speaker 1: and a half to the Bears, and the Rams slightly
Speaker 1: didn't cover the laying sixteen and a half to the Jets.
Speaker 2: How did I feel about that? By the way, you,
Speaker 2: being a Jet fan.
Speaker 1: I think that it surprises me that every year they
Speaker 1: find a new way to make you hate being a jetsman,
Speaker 1: And this was one of the worst I mean, I'm
Speaker 1: literally like none of that. Again, you know, obviously I'm
Speaker 1: a fantasy guy, but in a very important fantasy matchup,
Speaker 1: I had the Rams defense, which is something where you're like,
Speaker 1: this is guaranteed we're gonna go It was terrible. All
Speaker 1: It's terrible. That is what they do. And again, at
Speaker 1: the beginning of the season, when I realized that they
Speaker 1: were an historically terrible team, I was like, they'll still
Speaker 1: find a way to go four and twelve and get
Speaker 1: like the sixth pick and nobody will care because that's
Speaker 1: what they do. But then I really bought in. I
Speaker 1: really bought into the A and sixteen. How are they
Speaker 1: gonna win a game, especially against the Rams. So yeah,
Speaker 1: I feel terrible about it, But we'll talk about it, Matt,
Speaker 1: and you mentioned it on the Daily Juice. But what
Speaker 1: we're gonna see this weekend from the Jaguars, we'll.
Speaker 2: Talk about that. It's the Doug Moron for revenge game.
Speaker 1: What I'm saying. But let's hope, let's hope that we
Speaker 1: get there. We would have hit on the Browns laying
Speaker 1: four and a half to the Giants and the Cowboys.
Speaker 1: Kudos to you, by the way, because I did not
Speaker 1: love that game whatsoever. The Cowboys laying three and a
Speaker 1: half to the forty nine ers, so we would have
Speaker 1: gone two and three. But to the extent we're still
Speaker 1: in contention, which we are all get in a second,
Speaker 1: we would have lost that one. So we not a
Speaker 1: good week for anybody though. And the thing about the contest, Matt,
Speaker 1: So we are thirty six and twenty nine. That's fifty
Speaker 1: five point four percent. That's that's good. And I think
Speaker 1: we're in like one hundred and fiftieth place out of
Speaker 1: seven hundred whatever people, So that's pretty good. Now, if
Speaker 1: we went five and oh this week, it would be
Speaker 1: fifty eight point six percent. That is right on the
Speaker 1: border right now of cashing. I'm not one hundred percent
Speaker 1: positive it would make. It would really depend on how
Speaker 1: the people in front of us did. But that might
Speaker 1: actually cash, which is pretty huge in this tournament, which
Speaker 1: is a fifteen hundred dollars buy in, So people aren't
Speaker 1: going in being like all right, whatver, I'm just good.
Speaker 1: You know, they know what they're doing in this one.
Speaker 1: So we got a shot, but we pretty much have
Speaker 1: to go five and oh. Now the lines just came
Speaker 1: out for the tournament. I checked last night. They weren't out.
Speaker 1: I just sent them to you, so I'd kind of
Speaker 1: looked at the lines based on where the consensus was
Speaker 1: in the market without knowing these. So my feelings on
Speaker 1: some of them might change a little bit, but we'll
Speaker 1: have to see. So, Matt, early just impressions, How do
Speaker 1: you feel about the lines generally?
Speaker 2: Well, let me ask you this question is into this.
Speaker 2: Do you believe in game theory or are we picking
Speaker 2: games based upon who wins as if we were betting money.
Speaker 1: This is a fantastic question, Matt, A fantastic question because
Speaker 1: I thought about this a lot. Are we trying to
Speaker 1: be contrarian in this to try to win money?
Speaker 2: For me?
Speaker 1: Matt, I really think that the bottom line is we
Speaker 1: need to go five and oh. So, if there is
Speaker 1: a something where it's like we've got two games that
Speaker 1: we feel equally pretty good about, one of them is
Speaker 1: probably one that's going to be a little bit contrarian,
Speaker 1: I will opt for that one. But I'm not looking
Speaker 1: to be like, well, let's go with this because they'll
Speaker 1: never see this one coming, Like, we gotta make our
Speaker 1: best picks. We gotta go five and oh So, whichever
Speaker 1: way it comes out is fine. What about you, what
Speaker 1: do you think you would do?
Speaker 2: I think being contrarian as much as possible is important
Speaker 2: yes here, And because it is our last week, and
Speaker 2: because we have a shot at it, I do think
Speaker 2: we need to be a little bit on the game
Speaker 2: theory side versus the pick theory side, just because it
Speaker 2: could lead us if we go five and oh, and
Speaker 2: I mean we can hold serve and there's nothing wrong
Speaker 2: with holding serve. Yeah, but we're not trying to hold
Speaker 2: serve right now. We're outside the money at one p fifty,
Speaker 2: so we're trying to get in. So let's be a
Speaker 2: little bit more on the aggressive side when it comes
Speaker 2: to fading, you know, where what we think may actually
Speaker 2: happen here because I think it could lead us to
Speaker 2: you know, if we do go five and oh, we
Speaker 2: could find ourselves right in a good spot.
Speaker 1: So the biggest thing that I will say, well, there
Speaker 1: are two things really. Number one that's Wednesday. Okay, we
Speaker 1: usually record this on Thursday. We have a little bit
Speaker 1: more information, we have a little bit more time to digest.
Speaker 1: So this is an important week for us, of course.
Speaker 1: So Matt, as you always do, you talk to people
Speaker 1: who are in the know. You get convinced one way
Speaker 1: or another, so you can follow up. So this week, more
Speaker 1: than any other week, it's going to be our like
Speaker 1: proposed picks, but we definitely may change often. But number two,
Speaker 1: of course, as much as people who listen to this podcast,
Speaker 1: and we love them all, I'm sure are very interested
Speaker 1: in how we are pursuing the Draft Kings Championship. Of
Speaker 1: course they also want betting. It's like guard let's for them.
Speaker 1: So we will of course not just be like, well,
Speaker 1: this might be the play, but we're going contraria to
Speaker 1: go here, like we'll make it clear which way our
Speaker 1: leans are. So all right, Matt, you've got the Lions
Speaker 1: now and again you can look at wherever you at it.
Speaker 1: There are certain things where the Draftking lines. There are
Speaker 1: some that are better than the consensus, some that are worse.
Speaker 1: So what do you think you can start us off?
Speaker 1: What's your number one play this week?
Speaker 2: Now, let me just say I we've just now had
Speaker 2: a chance to go through it, so like my order
Speaker 2: of favorite plays are probably going to change here. Yeah,
Speaker 2: we've got games on Friday, Saturday and Sunday, right, yes, sir, Okay,
Speaker 2: So this is a little bit of a weird week.
Speaker 2: Do we know the rules on the DraftKings? If we
Speaker 2: play Friday, can we play Saturday and Sunday without having
Speaker 2: to give them all in? Yes, so the Friday rules
Speaker 2: and Saturday rules apply like it's a Thursday game, correct. Okay,
Speaker 2: So I like that, so we actually can kind of go,
Speaker 2: you know, day by day.
Speaker 1: So just so you know, Matt, here are the rules. Okay,
Speaker 1: when you make a pick, you have to put in
Speaker 1: all five of your picks to enter any pick, but
Speaker 1: you can edit your picks up until Sunday morning at
Speaker 1: ten am. Perfect. If you make all your picks, you
Speaker 1: want a Saturday game, you put them in now. If
Speaker 1: you change your mind before the Saturday game, you just
Speaker 1: change it like before the kickoffs, so you can do
Speaker 1: whatever they want.
Speaker 2: I love that. That's great in terms of right now
Speaker 2: where I sit. Okay, I personally think the La Rams
Speaker 2: catching one and a half points yea in the bounce
Speaker 2: back of bounce back spots. I got them catching points
Speaker 2: in a game that they have to win against Seattle,
Speaker 2: and I don't think Seattle's all that good in particular defensively,
Speaker 2: you could say that the Rams are looking ahead to
Speaker 2: this game because this is for the division. This is
Speaker 2: a divisional game. They had the lead by a game,
Speaker 2: so they guess they had a game in hand. They
Speaker 2: could technically lose it and still win the division if
Speaker 2: they beat Seattle. They have to win this game. I
Speaker 2: think the Rams win the game outright.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'll put in pencil for now, But I'm almost
Speaker 1: sure that's going to be one of our picks because
Speaker 1: I have it as well. I have a little trepidation
Speaker 1: with it match just because I do think golf. Well,
Speaker 1: it's Jared, this is exactly correct, right, Like, didn't we
Speaker 1: kind of think like we got to be past this
Speaker 1: type of effort that we saw from the Jets. But
Speaker 1: if you can go that route and lose that game,
Speaker 1: I don't care about how much of a letdown spot,
Speaker 1: how much you're looking past it whatever. That was one
Speaker 1: of the worst played games I have ever seen in
Speaker 1: my life. The Jets didn't play well in that whatever
Speaker 1: that was the Rams. Man, it was really remarkable to
Speaker 1: see that. So it's a little worrisome. At the same time,
Speaker 1: if we're thinking about this game, it's the best thing
Speaker 1: that could happen to the Rams, because you know, this right,
Speaker 1: This is a And I also, what do you think
Speaker 1: this is going to? Do you think the public's gonna
Speaker 1: come in down the Seahawks here? Do you think they're
Speaker 1: going to see what happened last week and be a
Speaker 1: very public play for the Seahawks?
Speaker 2: And I think there's a good chance of it. I
Speaker 2: think you'll see some public sharper, smarter people maybe come
Speaker 2: back on the rams.
Speaker 1: Yep.
Speaker 2: But I do think you're going to see this line
Speaker 2: climb at least approaching kickoff with public people coming in
Speaker 2: saying Seattle's the best team in the division. The here
Speaker 2: comes ste came Metcalf, yep. I just I watched Aaron
Speaker 2: Donald leave the field and how mad he was when
Speaker 2: he left the field. I was like, oh, I am
Speaker 2: feeling bad for Russ next week because that guy's gonna
Speaker 2: be on the ship.
Speaker 1: And the thing is they're not playing that well, the
Speaker 1: Seahawks right now. They haven't played well in a long time.
Speaker 1: You know. Russ's is not, you know, playing as well.
Speaker 1: He's getting his butt kicked a little bit, he's holding
Speaker 1: the ball a little bit too long, and yeah, DK
Speaker 1: Metcalf always has the chance to make giant plays, but
Speaker 1: Tyler Lockett hasn't been involved really at all. The Rams
Speaker 1: are gonna be so pissed after this game. Now cam
Speaker 1: Makers is out. That does hurt because A is an
Speaker 1: upgrade over Daryl Hunterson and Malcolm Brown. I just don't
Speaker 1: think it's enough so divisional game. You know, it's one
Speaker 1: and a half points, but I do like it. I
Speaker 1: think the Rams are going to win this game out
Speaker 1: Like I have sprinkled some of the money line already,
Speaker 1: so I do think that they're gonna get it. So yep,
Speaker 1: I'm good with it. Let's put it there, all right, Matt.
Speaker 1: We're gonna get ugly this week. And I mentioned it
Speaker 1: a little bit before, but I realize that the Bears are,
Speaker 1: you know, in the hunt and playing well, and the
Speaker 1: Jaguars are terrible, and they may be down James Robinson
Speaker 1: right now, but I think that Gardner Minshew is going
Speaker 1: to be able to keep this game at roughly a
Speaker 1: touchdown or closer. And this just strikes me as a
Speaker 1: way to fade the Bears. And again you mentioned on
Speaker 1: The Juice, which I loved. It was maybe my favorite
Speaker 1: moment on The Daily Juice where you aptly pointed out
Speaker 1: Doug Marron don't care. Okay, no, he's gone. He's not
Speaker 1: coaching this team next year, does he really is? He like, man,
Speaker 1: we got a tank so we can get Trevor Lawrence.
Speaker 1: I mean, think about Adam Gase. Adam Gase isn't tanking.
Speaker 1: Adam Gase isn't here next year. They don't care. He's
Speaker 1: not going to tank. The team plays hard. They don't
Speaker 1: have the horses, but they play hard. Gardner Minshew again,
Speaker 1: I mean, Baltimore was completely out of their league. I
Speaker 1: don't think the Bears necessarily are. I think you know
Speaker 1: that the defense is good, but it's mainly the run defense.
Speaker 1: I think Mitchell will be able to move the ball,
Speaker 1: passing it and keep it close enough where it'll be
Speaker 1: within a touchdown at seven and a half at home.
Speaker 1: It's ugly, but I actually like the Jaguars here.
Speaker 2: I think they moved. They might win the game out right.
Speaker 1: Yes, I kind of think that too.
Speaker 2: This is what I really after listening to the clip
Speaker 2: of Doug Maron when he was asked about tanking after
Speaker 2: the game, saying, you know, the Jets they've lost here.
Speaker 2: You know, what is your philosophy? What do you do?
Speaker 2: Over his last two games, and he was angry when
Speaker 2: he answered it. It wasn't like a, well, you know,
Speaker 2: we're gonna go out there and do our best. And
Speaker 2: you know, he was like, we're not tanking. What are
Speaker 2: you talking about. We're not losing, We're not doing that.
Speaker 2: And I went, oh my gosh, this guy knows he's fired.
Speaker 2: And Trevor Lawrence going to Jacksonville guarantees he's fired. There's
Speaker 2: no way they let that guy go anywhere near Trevor Lawrence.
Speaker 2: So why in the world would he want to lose?
Speaker 2: Why would he want to tank for a kid, a
Speaker 2: quarterback he'll never coach, and he's angry he's losing his job.
Speaker 2: It's human nature, right, you know you're fired, you're a
Speaker 2: dead man walking. What's the best way to just stick
Speaker 2: it to your employer? Win? I think they could win
Speaker 2: the game out right.
Speaker 1: I I'm not gonna lie. I also have just a
Speaker 1: tiny bit a time because's like plus three hundred or
Speaker 1: whatever for the Jags on the money line, because I
Speaker 1: do think that there's a chance I can win. But again, realistically,
Speaker 1: the Jaguars, they've covered several times where you've been like,
Speaker 1: what are you talking about? Like they managed to keep
Speaker 1: a game close, and again, as many points as the
Speaker 1: Bears have put up lately is as much as you know,
Speaker 1: Dave Montgomery is really playing well and Mischal Trubisky is
Speaker 1: you know, passable at this moment. I just think that
Speaker 1: you're gonna see Gardner Minshew be able to put up
Speaker 1: some points enough to keep close with them, and again
Speaker 1: talk about tanking Matt like, I realistically think no team
Speaker 1: actually says we we are. Like, if you're out on
Speaker 1: the football field, for the most part, you're I don't
Speaker 1: think teams go out there and are like, I'm just
Speaker 1: gonna kind of olay this guy. Not you see teams
Speaker 1: maybe being like I'm not gonna put my health at
Speaker 1: risk by tackling this guy, or maybe not like that,
Speaker 1: but they try, you play to win the game, and
Speaker 1: especially a code who is coaching, Like no coach wants
Speaker 1: to be like I'm tanking on purpose to do this,
Speaker 1: so they're gonna play to win. So yeah, I like
Speaker 1: it over touch. And I wanted to see what the
Speaker 1: spread was in the DraftKings contest because it was seven
Speaker 1: and a half generally speaking, once to see in the contest,
Speaker 1: it's also seven and a half. So if you're good
Speaker 1: with that, I'm good with it.
Speaker 2: All right. So we got favorite we go dog with
Speaker 2: the Rams, dog with the Jags. I got one more dog,
Speaker 2: dogg I want to talk about, okay, and I think
Speaker 2: this is you want to talk ugly? All right? This
Speaker 2: is ugly.
Speaker 1: Oh okay, it's not what I'm thinking I've got. I've
Speaker 1: got a dog that I'm I'm hope I was hoping
Speaker 1: that you'd get to but it's not gonna go.
Speaker 2: This is this is ugly because I'm gonna ride a
Speaker 2: backup quarterback to do something here, and I'm gonna take
Speaker 2: Vegas at plus three and a half against the against
Speaker 2: the Dolphins. The Patriots should have won that game, all right.
Speaker 2: It was right there. There were so many chances for them.
Speaker 2: And just Cam Newton can't do anything. Okay, he just
Speaker 2: can't throw, he can't run. I don't think that Dolphins
Speaker 2: defense is playing very well, and I know that Dolphins
Speaker 2: offense is not playing very well. I think the Raiders,
Speaker 2: they're healthy. They've got to win the game to stay
Speaker 2: in the playoff chase. This is it. They lose the game,
Speaker 2: they're done. Their entire seasons on the line. I think
Speaker 2: jobs are on the line. I think coaches jobs are
Speaker 2: on the line. We've already seen the DC get fired
Speaker 2: in Vegas. I think you could see more coaches getting
Speaker 2: fired because Gruden is gonna get really angry, and he
Speaker 2: likes Mariota. He thinks Marcus Mariota is Something's White gave
Speaker 2: him a two year, seventeen million dollar contract to play
Speaker 2: quarterback for this spot. Mariota's playing for a job. He
Speaker 2: could wind up. Look what Cam Cam got a starting job?
Speaker 2: Why couldn't Marcus Mariota get a starting job next year?
Speaker 2: I think at plus three and a half, I'm getting
Speaker 2: more than a field goal. That hook matters to me.
Speaker 2: I don't think that Dolphins offense is that great. I
Speaker 2: know the defense for the Raiders gets no pressure. I
Speaker 2: understand that, but I think that this is a game
Speaker 2: where the offense can put points up. I'll take the
Speaker 2: three and a half in the Raiders.
Speaker 1: So all right, So a couple ugly?
Speaker 2: It is ugly.
Speaker 1: Oh, it's likely there are a couple. I have a
Speaker 1: couple questions. First of all, I've been assuming based on
Speaker 1: the injury sound pretty bad. That cars up. But he's
Speaker 1: splitting reps here in practice with Marios.
Speaker 2: There's no way this dude's playing. I mean I could play,
Speaker 2: I guess, but like I am banking on a backup quarterback.
Speaker 2: He tours coin. Yeah, I mean it was not It
Speaker 2: was not pretty. I mean, yes, as a quarterback you
Speaker 2: don't have to run. You can kind of stand back
Speaker 2: there if you can move around a little bit, right,
Speaker 2: But given how fluid Mariota was, and yes, he threw
Speaker 2: behind his receivers like crazy, but he did have that
Speaker 2: drop in the bucket throw to Waller which was pretty
Speaker 2: nice for a touchdown.
Speaker 1: So he played very well. He played very well in
Speaker 1: that game overall, like completely coming off the.
Speaker 2: Bench cold, he definitely played well.
Speaker 1: Yes, yeah, So so it's interesting when I originally did
Speaker 1: my notes on it, I didn't really think about this
Speaker 1: game because it was three three and a half makes
Speaker 1: it far more indicing when I'm looking at it. And again,
Speaker 1: the what I like about this is that, I mean
Speaker 1: the split on the public in this The public's going
Speaker 1: to be all over the Dolphins, yes one right, because
Speaker 1: the Raiders, you know, they they looked, you know, well,
Speaker 1: a competent on national TV. But I got the backup quarterback.
Speaker 1: Everybody's starting to love the Dolphins At this point, I
Speaker 1: worry a little bit about what we're going to I mean,
Speaker 1: I get that the Raiders have to win. I just
Speaker 1: don't know whether or not the Raiders have the horses
Speaker 1: to win this game. I mean, Jacob's banged up. It's
Speaker 1: really Waller, like, it's really Waller at this point, the
Speaker 1: Dolphins the event.
Speaker 2: Was open though maryo to have missed agial He was
Speaker 2: always open and they always had on a prop bet
Speaker 2: I need nine more yards. He tried to be four,
Speaker 2: actually trying to be five more yards for Agalar, but
Speaker 2: he was open. He was opening a lot and Marrillar
Speaker 2: just missed him. So if he can get on the
Speaker 2: same page as him, it's not just Waller. I mean,
Speaker 2: I know you. I think Ruggs is going to be
Speaker 2: a really interesting case.
Speaker 1: And it cooks back, by the way, from the COVID
Speaker 1: nineteen list because he was on it.
Speaker 2: I don't know it was contact tracing, right, he he
Speaker 2: didn't have COVID right.
Speaker 1: He was, I don't think so.
Speaker 2: Right.
Speaker 1: Has he been activated though yet?
Speaker 2: I haven't seen it, But it just he hasn't been
Speaker 2: the weapon that we thought he was going to be
Speaker 2: in this offense. No, it's all Waller and it's all Jacobs,
Speaker 2: and the offensive line has gotten healthy er and it
Speaker 2: has been playing better or they're still not without I mean,
Speaker 2: the last incognito for the year and whatnot. But I
Speaker 2: just think this is like, this is the season, this
Speaker 2: is everything. And to lose by a field goal, yeah,
Speaker 2: I can see that, lose by three, but that hook
Speaker 2: matters to me? About the three and a half in
Speaker 2: the contest.
Speaker 1: Okay, well, I'm gonna put on the maybe list because
Speaker 1: I'm not in love with it. I worry a little
Speaker 1: bit about the Raiders, and again I also for the Raiders,
Speaker 1: and the health of the Dolphins matters to me as well.
Speaker 1: Is Gasking coming back or any pass is any pass
Speaker 1: catcher coming back for Dolphins? Is the Balthley Parker or
Speaker 1: Mica Sicky or Jaquim Grant or anybody who's out there
Speaker 1: coming back? So I'll put it on the babe list
Speaker 1: because I do like the hook. Oh at three, I
Speaker 1: kind of discounted either side because I didn't like it
Speaker 1: on either side. Three and a half feel a little
Speaker 1: bit different now. The dog that I thought you might
Speaker 1: be going with, Matt that I kind of like this week.
Speaker 1: Are the Falcons getting ten and a half from the
Speaker 1: Chiefs in case c Now, the Chiefs are gonna win
Speaker 1: this game without question. But the Falcons are not a
Speaker 1: terrible football team. I mean, even without Julio Jones. You know,
Speaker 1: Raey Morris is a good coach. He has them coached up.
Speaker 1: The defense is playing. Okay, they were way ahead in
Speaker 1: that Bucks game, but they falconed it as they always do.
Speaker 1: So the Chiefs, as we know, they're a great team,
Speaker 1: but they are not interested in winning by twenty five points, right,
Speaker 1: Like they're just not. They let teams sort of hang around.
Speaker 1: You're getting more than ten in this game. It strikes
Speaker 1: me as this is you know, a seven point win,
Speaker 1: maybe a ten point win. I don't think I see
Speaker 1: it as like a twenty point win in this game
Speaker 1: or something like that. So getting double digits more than
Speaker 1: ten in this game, I kind of like the Falcons.
Speaker 1: What do you I mean, it's in it's a narrowhead.
Speaker 2: So yeah, you know, paying what is that? It's Julio playing.
Speaker 1: I'm gonna assume that Julio's not playing. He might he's
Speaker 1: trying desperately to play. My guess is going to play
Speaker 1: week seventeen, not this game. If he played play this week.
Speaker 2: Yeah, if he played, I would feel a little bit better.
Speaker 2: But really had a monster game.
Speaker 1: Yeah, and Gauge played well as well.
Speaker 2: Yeah, Gates played very well. And and and and look,
Speaker 2: Matt Ryan's playing well, he's he I mean, there's a
Speaker 2: big you know, there's all that talk about Matt Ryan
Speaker 2: potentially going to San Francisco and going back with Kyle Shanahan,
Speaker 2: and that's been you know, so he's he wants to
Speaker 2: put up numbers and he wants to prove he can
Speaker 2: still be a starting quarterback in the NFL. So there's
Speaker 2: a lot to play for here. Oh, five and one,
Speaker 2: depending on the number that you got. If you got
Speaker 2: two and a half late, you covered that game with
Speaker 2: the Saints. But if you got it at three, which
Speaker 2: was pretty much where it was forever, right, you know,
Speaker 2: they're five and one over the last six games against
Speaker 2: the spread, and they've been backdoored for four consecutive weeks. Yeah,
Speaker 2: it's really weird. And so they go up and they
Speaker 2: just stop. And I've been telling people who you know,
Speaker 2: I got friends of mine who are chief fans, and
Speaker 2: I'm like, you guys, better stop doing that because at
Speaker 2: some point in the playoffs you're gonna get burned. If
Speaker 2: you're not playing fourth quarter games, you're not playing all
Speaker 2: four quarters. You're gonna get yourself into a fourth quarter
Speaker 2: game and it's gonna be like the Titans game last year,
Speaker 2: but in reverse, where you're gonna be up big and
Speaker 2: then you're gonna lose because you're just not gonna be
Speaker 2: able to hold on to a lead. So I don't
Speaker 2: hate it. Ten and a half's a big number and
Speaker 2: big number, and I think it will come down by
Speaker 2: the time kickoff happens. I think you'll see professionals come
Speaker 2: in and take the points. I'm I'm okay with going
Speaker 2: heavy on dogs this weekend, right, I really am. In
Speaker 2: Week sixteen and seventeen, I'm comfortable even road you know,
Speaker 2: double digit road favorite road dogs. I'm comfortable. If I'm
Speaker 2: getting points, I feel good. So I'd be comfortable at
Speaker 2: ten and a half.
Speaker 1: Yeah. So the thing, you know, to the extent I
Speaker 1: want to make the case against it, which worries me
Speaker 1: a little bit, is that the Chiefs have a very
Speaker 1: strong pass defense, their run defense is a little susceptible,
Speaker 1: and the Falcons can't run the ball. They just can't.
Speaker 1: They're just passing, and you know that's where the strength is.
Speaker 1: But again, this is just what it is. Ten and
Speaker 1: a half man. They don't cover the line. They just don't.
Speaker 1: They they're not interested in it, they don't care. And
Speaker 1: again you get you know, you're telling me, you know
Speaker 1: what at thirty to twenty, you know you're fine with
Speaker 1: the Falcons. You're good there. So I kind of like it.
Speaker 1: I'd like it a lot more if the Falcons are home,
Speaker 1: of course. Yeah, but yeah, all right, we'll put on
Speaker 1: the maybe lest what else? A goat?
Speaker 2: So I've got favorites here, yep, And so those are
Speaker 2: my three. So really we have five picks, five dogs
Speaker 2: right now?
Speaker 1: So if what's our fifth on? What did I mean?
Speaker 2: Raiders, Jags, Rams? Oh? And so we have four now okay? Four?
Speaker 1: Sorry full yeah and the Falcons.
Speaker 2: Yeah.
Speaker 1: So but by the way, I also my only remaining
Speaker 1: picks where I have actual like leans for them, are
Speaker 1: all favorites as well, just so you know.
Speaker 2: Okay, so I I want to go back to the
Speaker 2: well against your Jets, Yes, and I feel like, go ahead,
Speaker 2: there's okay, So I just think nine and a half
Speaker 2: blow ten for Cleveland. This is where actually Cleveland gets
Speaker 2: to get all their fans into a lather for the
Speaker 2: Super Bowl and they'll blow the Jets out by thirty
Speaker 2: and the Jets will just you know, they played their
Speaker 2: super Bowl, if you will, they won their one game,
Speaker 2: and to turn around and fade them the next week
Speaker 2: against the team that's gonna run the ball down the
Speaker 2: throats and just win the game twenty to three and
Speaker 2: walk away.
Speaker 1: Yep.
Speaker 2: I can lay the nine and a half with Cleveland.
Speaker 1: Yep. This was definitely on my list, and I what's
Speaker 1: funny matter is, I was like, I think this one's
Speaker 1: gonna be a winner with Matt, So I'm not gonna
Speaker 1: waste it yet. I'm gonna hold it for now just
Speaker 1: in case it gets support where like, oh man, I'm
Speaker 1: gonna be like boom the one like if you want
Speaker 1: a worry about it, because I I realistically I had
Speaker 1: in my notes it was nine and a half in
Speaker 1: the consensus lines. I had my notes if it gets
Speaker 1: to ten, I really hope it doesn't get to ten
Speaker 1: in the contest. If it's days at nine and a half,
Speaker 1: which it did, I felt good about it because again,
Speaker 1: kudos to the Browns, who are absolutely legitimate. They are
Speaker 1: playing great. Baker is playing great. You know, Richard Higgins
Speaker 1: is playing great. The run game is good, the defense
Speaker 1: is solid. You know, they're getting healthier there. The Jets, absolutely,
Speaker 1: they played a good game against a good team. But again,
Speaker 1: for me, that game was more about the Rems. You
Speaker 1: want something to basically be like, oh man, maybe they
Speaker 1: don't completely destroy the Jets. Is the fact that they
Speaker 1: could be looking ahead right too week seventeen against the Steelers, which.
Speaker 2: Right now because they have to win the game to
Speaker 2: keep pace.
Speaker 1: It's true, but it could be something where they you know,
Speaker 1: you go in and you say, well, we're gonna win
Speaker 1: this game. We know that, like what you know, focus
Speaker 1: on Pittsburgh are like, what will be the Jets?
Speaker 2: So we start doing that, that's dangerous.
Speaker 1: I agree the brown that's what happens. I'm sure the
Speaker 1: Rams probably did that a little bit, right. The Rams
Speaker 1: probably looked ahead to the Seahawks a little bit and
Speaker 1: came out against the Jet. We're going to destroy the Jets.
Speaker 1: Who cares? It doesn't matter though, Man, I'm completely with you.
Speaker 1: The Jets. No, they've won the game. They're not gonna
Speaker 1: win another one, and Cleveland is too good anyway. Cleveland
Speaker 1: is just a much much better team, and I have
Speaker 1: faith if you're getting it under ten. Yeah, it was
Speaker 1: one of my favorite picks on the week. I just
Speaker 1: didn't lead with it because I figured that it would
Speaker 1: be a safe pick that I could have later on.
Speaker 1: So absolutely that one's in forget it. We don't even
Speaker 1: need to debate it.
Speaker 2: So okay, all right, And but that's the game theory.
Speaker 1: By the way, you think that the Jets are going
Speaker 1: to be the.
Speaker 2: No, everyone's going to be on the Browns.
Speaker 1: Oh, everyone is going to be on the Browns.
Speaker 2: Yes, I think I think one of the most popular
Speaker 2: picks is going to be Browns over the Jets. So
Speaker 2: that's just if I'm with you on the play. But
Speaker 2: if we're playing game theory, okay, the idea is either
Speaker 2: do we want to run with the masses or do
Speaker 2: we want to be contrary. I'm not saying we take
Speaker 2: the Jets. I'm just saying we look for games that
Speaker 2: people aren't going to play because you know, everyone's going
Speaker 2: to be on the Browns. It's just going to be there.
Speaker 1: You know. It's very interesting though, Matt. There are a
Speaker 1: couple of things. Okay, let's talk about a couple things.
Speaker 1: Number One, game theory works both ways, right, Like, other
Speaker 1: people can also be having the game theory discussion that
Speaker 1: you are having, right, and they could be like, let's
Speaker 1: get smart and stuff like that. So it could definitely be.
Speaker 1: But I do think that all year long that people
Speaker 1: who have models and people who sort of look at
Speaker 1: to find the value in the lines have consistently said,
Speaker 1: I feel like there's value in the Jets lines, but
Speaker 1: I can't take the Jets. I can't take the Jets
Speaker 1: because even though my model says that the spread should
Speaker 1: be three points closer, I can't take the Jets on this.
Speaker 1: But maybe now you feel a little more comfortable taking
Speaker 1: the Jets because they showed up the other thing. By
Speaker 1: the ways, Quldn'tlliams like their best pass. He's out. He's
Speaker 1: just been placed on IR as of twenty minutes ago,
Speaker 1: so he's out for this game. They can't win, man, Like.
Speaker 2: No, I'm with you here. The one thing that I'm
Speaker 2: curious about because the way the DraftKings does it, so
Speaker 2: we're talking about percentage, not wins.
Speaker 1: Correct. Now, It's going to be the same thing though,
Speaker 1: because everybody's going to have the same number of picks
Speaker 1: at this point. Right now, the percentage matters a little
Speaker 1: more because not everybody has picked the same number of games.
Speaker 1: Oh right, okay, so some people have already have already
Speaker 1: used picked all their games and they have to take
Speaker 1: the bye week in.
Speaker 2: This sixteen seventeen, so they're done exactly.
Speaker 1: So that's why it's percentage at this point as opposed
Speaker 1: to win. So in the end it's going to be wins.
Speaker 1: And my guess is, so we are I believe I
Speaker 1: said we were thirty six and twenty nine or whatever
Speaker 1: it was, and so at best we would get forty
Speaker 1: one out of sixty, which would be fifty eight point
Speaker 1: six percent. And right now that I believe is cash.
Speaker 1: So I don't know whether or not that's where it's
Speaker 1: going to be, or or that might be one game
Speaker 1: short or something. Forty one one out of sixty, but
Speaker 1: that's gonna be right on the borderline of what we
Speaker 1: need to be doing. So it's cool it's a percent
Speaker 1: but it's really picks at that point.
Speaker 2: Okay, So so it's still game theory. I mean, I
Speaker 2: I think.
Speaker 1: Although you could be by the way, if it's if
Speaker 1: there's a push on a game obviously, right, so that
Speaker 1: although every line is at half point, like, there's no
Speaker 1: pushing this.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm guessing a Vello Johnny Vello and company made
Speaker 2: sure that. So, I think, so you wouldn't have the
Speaker 2: You're you're either gonna go five and oh or zero
Speaker 2: and five. There's no you know, there's no three to
Speaker 2: one and one going on here. You know. It's it's
Speaker 2: it's trying to make sure you're either winning or losing
Speaker 2: in week sixteen. I mean, I I think, you know,
Speaker 2: the more that I think about it, the more that
Speaker 2: I realized, like, if we have to go five and oh,
Speaker 2: we kind of just have to pick five games we
Speaker 2: were build the best.
Speaker 1: That's where I'm at, Matt.
Speaker 2: If I'm with you on that.
Speaker 1: Now, if there's a high breaker, if there's a tigh breaker, right,
Speaker 1: if we're like we like these four games, we've got
Speaker 1: these two other games that we feel kind of equally
Speaker 1: strong about, and one is kind of more of the
Speaker 1: game theory contrarian play. I'm fine to that, But for
Speaker 1: the most part, I'm not like you and I like
Speaker 1: the Browns at nine and a half. I don't really
Speaker 1: want to get off it, because I think it's going
Speaker 1: to be like a play like we gotta go five
Speaker 1: and zero one point by hook or by crunk.
Speaker 2: So so yeah, all right, all right, I like it.
Speaker 1: All right, So that was yours. So let me get
Speaker 1: to mine. I've got how many more? I really only
Speaker 1: have one or two more. I guess maybe this one's
Speaker 1: what worries me about this one though, Matt is it's
Speaker 1: an incredibly public play, Like the public is probably going
Speaker 1: to be all over this because they have seen the
Speaker 1: Steelers look like hot garbage for three weeks now. They
Speaker 1: just got absolutely embarrassed on national TV. It's a spot
Speaker 1: where ordinarily I would buy the Steelers, and I would
Speaker 1: say this is Tomlin spot, right, I mean, this is
Speaker 1: the Rara nobody believes in us whatever. I just don't
Speaker 1: think they got the horses at this point. And I
Speaker 1: think Indianapolis maybe not a dominant team, you know, maybe
Speaker 1: not quite as strong as I thought, but their defense,
Speaker 1: when healthy is absolutely legitimate. The Steelers have no running
Speaker 1: game whatsoever. Everybody knows that Ben Is, whether he's actually
Speaker 1: hurt or whatever, can't push the ball downfield. So they
Speaker 1: are just crowding the line, saying you want to get
Speaker 1: a seven yard completion. We are not like I'm not
Speaker 1: backing off as a corner, not backing off anymore. I'm
Speaker 1: not worried about being be deep because I know you
Speaker 1: got to get the ball out in one point five seconds.
Speaker 1: Indianapolis is a legit team. They need to keep winning here.
Speaker 1: They've got a shot of the division, especially with the
Speaker 1: Titans playing the Packers. So lay under a field goal.
Speaker 1: I think they win the game. I'd be willing to
Speaker 1: go with Indianapolis two and a half. It's just such
Speaker 1: a public play, which is why I have trepidation about him.
Speaker 2: What do you think it has a big black line
Speaker 2: through it?
Speaker 1: Oh? No way, because it's so public or what?
Speaker 2: Just you can't touch the game? Okay, you just can't here.
Speaker 2: There's a bunch of reasons why won I think James
Speaker 2: Connor's playing. Okay, So I think we're going to have
Speaker 2: a running game resurgency, Okay.
Speaker 1: I want to make it clear. I think their running
Speaker 1: game is worse with James Connor than with Benny Stump.
Speaker 1: That's where I am legitimately on James Connor at this point.
Speaker 1: Not that it matters, but go That's how I got
Speaker 1: James Connor is irrelevant.
Speaker 2: To me, but go okay, So I think Connor coming
Speaker 2: back to Big, I think you have the you mentioned
Speaker 2: the Tomlins spot. I mean this is it. I mean
Speaker 2: they can if they win this game, they win the
Speaker 2: division in Week seventeen, doesn't matter, they have a playoff
Speaker 2: home game. I think you're gonna get every trick. I
Speaker 2: think you're gonna get everything possible, and you're going I'm
Speaker 2: banking on Philip Rivers in a Week sixteen spot, in
Speaker 2: a super Bowl spot. I can't do it. I think
Speaker 2: you're right. I think the right sides the Colts, but
Speaker 2: I don't think we can risk it, knowing how much
Speaker 2: we need five picks. We can't risk being wrong and
Speaker 2: the Steelers getting right in winning a football game and
Speaker 2: you know, winning it out right, and then we're laying
Speaker 2: two and a half points here. If you were to
Speaker 2: take the Steelers out go all right, maybe, but it
Speaker 2: would feel you'd feel nervous about it. But I think
Speaker 2: there's a legitimate chance that they saved their season in
Speaker 2: this spot. I think big. I think Ben's arm, I
Speaker 2: think his elbow is screwed up, and I think there's
Speaker 2: no velocity two weeks ago against Buffalo was the first
Speaker 2: time I started asking people in Vegas, like, what is
Speaker 2: up with the arm? Yeah, and everybody said, there's nothing there.
Speaker 2: It's there's just no punch. However, even with that said,
Speaker 2: I think they know they're not going anywhere. They're gonna
Speaker 2: lose in the first round of the playoffs. Yeah, mean,
Speaker 2: they're just they're not a good football team. I can't
Speaker 2: see them going eleven and oh and oh and five.
Speaker 2: I just can't see it. They gotta beat somebody, and
Speaker 2: this is the game they gotta have.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think all of that is right. And again,
Speaker 1: I like everything when you look at sort of like
Speaker 1: ah trends or what's the narrative everything, it's Steelers, right,
Speaker 1: this is the spot for the Steelers. But again, this
Speaker 1: is something where I now cannot back the Steelers, like
Speaker 1: under any circumstances right now. But I'm fine. Again, it's
Speaker 1: a game that I'm uncomfortable with.
Speaker 2: I think you're on the right side. I got that.
Speaker 2: I think the cults. I think cults on the right side.
Speaker 2: I think it's it's the right bet, is the right pick.
Speaker 2: It's just in this spot for us.
Speaker 1: That's fine.
Speaker 2: If we're wrong it's like, oh, man, did we just
Speaker 2: lose money because we went against winning the spot that.
Speaker 1: We act Philip Rivers And it's just you know, I
Speaker 1: completely agree. It's it's just one that I'm like, ah,
Speaker 1: this feels like the right side, but I still feel
Speaker 1: uncomfortable with it. But again, I you're right at this
Speaker 1: point because if the steel got the Steelers, could you
Speaker 1: imagine going in having to beat the Browns next week
Speaker 1: in Cleveland?
Speaker 2: Yep?
Speaker 1: To for that division like that? No, terrible. They can't
Speaker 1: want to do that at this point on a four
Speaker 1: game losing streak, So yeah, I know it. Just man,
Speaker 1: that team with all the defensive injuries, with Bend, There's
Speaker 1: no way I'm taking the Steelers. I would say that,
Speaker 1: Like if you came in said Steelers, I would say,
Speaker 1: absolutely not.
Speaker 2: But I'm fine, No, I think the discuss is no play,
Speaker 2: This is no place, time of the week.
Speaker 1: I just don't think you can touch it all right,
Speaker 1: anybody else?
Speaker 2: Yeah, there's just one more play that I think. It's
Speaker 2: a big number. So I understand if you don't want
Speaker 2: to touch it. But I think the Giants offense is
Speaker 2: done and I think the Ravens are getting into form here,
Speaker 2: and I think they're gonna destroy New York. I think
Speaker 2: it's the line's big, it's ten and a half, but
Speaker 2: I think it's gonna be a complete and total. I
Speaker 2: think the Ravens are gonna kill the Giants.
Speaker 1: I don't care. I don't I don't hate it, So
Speaker 1: keep going. I'm sorry, keep going.
Speaker 2: Yeah, no, it is. I just in Baltimore ten and
Speaker 2: a half. I think there's quarterback questions. Don't McCoy or
Speaker 2: it's Jones, doesn't matter. I think the defense has been
Speaker 2: figured out, and I think the Ravens are starting to
Speaker 2: kind of do what good teams do. In December and okay,
Speaker 2: we had our hiccup, we had our kind of our
Speaker 2: our COVID problems and our issues, and we played in
Speaker 2: weird times and weird days and everything got thrown off.
Speaker 2: But I think Lamar Jackson is starting to come into
Speaker 2: shape here, and I think these next two weeks are
Speaker 2: gonna be the chance for the Ravens to kind of say, yeah,
Speaker 2: you know, we're still in the conversation here for potentially
Speaker 2: going to the super Bowl. You guys have slept on
Speaker 2: us long enough, but here's what we just did to
Speaker 2: the Giants.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I really don't hate this at all. It was
Speaker 1: on my list, but it was sort of like it's
Speaker 1: just a weird number, you know, like it's a big
Speaker 1: numbers as we were talking about. But I don't really
Speaker 1: hate it because A I do think that the Ravens
Speaker 1: have kind of been like, Okay, what are we doing?
Speaker 1: Like what were we doing coming into this year? Like
Speaker 1: I felt like we got too fancy almost a little
Speaker 1: bit right, Like we didn't just want to do exactly
Speaker 1: what we know we can do. Now they are, they're
Speaker 1: playing well, they need to keep winning. They need to
Speaker 1: basically went out. They've had the soft schedule here with
Speaker 1: Jacksonville and then the Giants, then they've get Cincinnati, so
Speaker 1: and again, what I love about Harbaugh is if he's
Speaker 1: going to win a game, he doesn't care about it,
Speaker 1: like he'll he'll you know, he's like the anti Chiefs
Speaker 1: this year, right, he will. He will put his foot
Speaker 1: on the neck and just say you're done. And I'm
Speaker 1: putting up as many points as possible. So, yeah, I
Speaker 1: don't hate it. I'll put it on. Let's put on
Speaker 1: the maybe list. But it's like the head of the
Speaker 1: maybe list for me for sure. Okay, very good. How
Speaker 1: about So this is interesting, Matt, and it's your team,
Speaker 1: so I want to ask you about it. At seven,
Speaker 1: I was like, maybe the Bills, because I think the
Speaker 1: I think the Bills at this point, Matt, are we
Speaker 1: done fading the Bills at this point? They look they
Speaker 1: look amazing, like they look really really incredible, especially offensive.
Speaker 2: I'll give you that. Yeah.
Speaker 1: The no Gilmore that it's seven and a half. I
Speaker 1: don't you know when it's seven and a half, I
Speaker 1: don't love well.
Speaker 2: Yeah. The thing that bothers me is that Belichick tends
Speaker 2: to take these games really personally now and he doesn't
Speaker 2: he plays long term like some coaches are, like, I
Speaker 2: need to win right now. Yeah, he doesn't care about
Speaker 2: about that. But the fact that he held his press
Speaker 2: conference this morning he wouldn't declare a starter. Yeah, and
Speaker 2: is maybe gonna run out Stinham And maybe it is
Speaker 2: Stinham playing and Cam not playing. I think they're a
Speaker 2: better team with Jared Stinham at the quarterback spot. So
Speaker 2: I don't know. I mean, I'm concerned that Belichick wants
Speaker 2: to go eight and eight and he wants to have
Speaker 2: have a you know, a five hundred record in the
Speaker 2: middle of COVID and then you know, let history play
Speaker 2: it out versus seven and nine and Brady winds up
Speaker 2: going you know, ten and six or whatever. Yeah, I
Speaker 2: don't know. It scares me. The hook matters. I couldn't
Speaker 2: back the Patriots, but I think the Bills are gonna
Speaker 2: win the game. But I could easily see my favorite quarterback,
Speaker 2: Josh Allen have a rough day.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I I I realistically think that the Bills are
Speaker 1: going to destroy the pass.
Speaker 2: And they want to. They're going in there.
Speaker 1: I'm not gonna here's the thing. I mean, I'll put
Speaker 1: on the maybe list, Matt, but unless you talk to
Speaker 1: your people and they're like this line should be twelve
Speaker 1: or whatever, I'm not gonna put it in because I'm
Speaker 1: not gonna have us back the Bills against the Patriots
Speaker 1: in our contest because I know your fade the Bills.
Speaker 2: You know, well, it's just it's over seven and it's
Speaker 2: a spot where the Patriots don't need to worry if
Speaker 2: they can do whatever they want. I mean, they can
Speaker 2: throw every trick defense, every trick play. I mean they can.
Speaker 2: You know, there's nothing on the line for the Patriots.
Speaker 2: It's just go out there and beat the Bills because
Speaker 2: you don't want to lose two games to Buffalo, and
Speaker 2: you know you've already lost the division to them, so
Speaker 2: you know there's anger in that building already when it
Speaker 2: comes to Buffalo. So if you win and you go
Speaker 2: one and one, at least you beat them, at least
Speaker 2: the team that won the division you beat them.
Speaker 1: Yeah, you know all of this stuff, Like I get
Speaker 1: all of that. I just think in the end, it
Speaker 1: doesn't matter because he does not have the horses. The
Speaker 1: same thing as the same thing as Pittsburgh right now.
Speaker 1: The same thing is like he has never allowed the
Speaker 1: rookie quarterbacks against Belichick. And maybe they they should have
Speaker 1: covered or maybe they could have won that game, but
Speaker 1: they didn't. And I think that especially without gilmore Man,
Speaker 1: like you're gonna have double digs. I guess I don't
Speaker 1: think it's necessarily gonna matter. And if it does, then
Speaker 1: you're gonna have Cole Beasley have the big game, and
Speaker 1: if not, then Josh Allen is gonna run all over.
Speaker 2: Remember though J C. Jackson's mad he had eight picks
Speaker 2: and did make the Pro Bowl.
Speaker 1: All right, All that the narrative stuff though, for me
Speaker 1: with this team doesn't matter because the narrative stuff has
Speaker 1: kind of been blown out of the water. Like Belichick is,
Speaker 1: if not the greatest coach of all time, then with
Speaker 1: the top two or whatever like that. But if he
Speaker 1: doesn't have the horses, he doesn't have the horses, and
Speaker 1: you lost your best defensive player. Whoever, It's not like
Speaker 1: maybe Jared Sidham is an upgrade over Cam Newton probably is.
Speaker 1: What does that matter? You know, at this point, who cares?
Speaker 1: It's not like that's not saying much. You might be
Speaker 1: an upgrade over Cam Newton at this point.
Speaker 2: I mean, Damien Harris maybe back.
Speaker 1: I mean, it's fine. I don't I don't mind. I mean,
Speaker 1: I'm I've sprinkled on it when at seven, which is
Speaker 1: what it is, because I really think that it is
Speaker 1: a game that Bills are gonna win by double digits
Speaker 1: at this point. But I'm not I'm not pushing for
Speaker 1: it in the contest because I do know a you've
Speaker 1: been you know, kind of generally speaking, fading the Bills
Speaker 1: all year, and number two, it's your team, so I
Speaker 1: trust you know your insight into the team more than
Speaker 1: my own. So I'm fine to put that on the maybe,
Speaker 1: but it's much more of a if you talk to
Speaker 1: your guys. And again, that's what I love about doing
Speaker 1: this with you is that you will come in and
Speaker 1: have a side while we do this, and then you'll
Speaker 1: you'll talk to other people. You'll talk, you'll get as
Speaker 1: much information as possible, and sometimes you'll switch. So if
Speaker 1: you switch, i'd you want to put it in. But
Speaker 1: for now, let's let's put it this. Any other team
Speaker 1: that you're looking at this week that you like or
Speaker 1: have a lean on. If not, we'll just go through
Speaker 1: the rest of the game. Seat there. I mean.
Speaker 2: The only other game that I've been kind of kicking
Speaker 2: around in my head and I've kind of been like,
Speaker 2: do I really want to go ahead and back them?
Speaker 2: And I'm not entirely comfortable even, you know, coming out
Speaker 2: and saying it is that I think the Titans might
Speaker 2: beat the Packers. And I just I think because the Titans.
Speaker 2: You mentioned the race, right, the Titans need this game.
Speaker 2: They've got to keep pace, they've got to keep their lead.
Speaker 2: I mean, I just I do the Packers really need
Speaker 2: this game?
Speaker 1: I mean, like, well that yeah, they need to buy right,
Speaker 1: I mean they're.
Speaker 2: Okay if yeah, if they want to buy. Okay, but
Speaker 2: and I don't know how much teams really want. I mean, yes,
Speaker 2: the buye would be nice, man, you need that buy Yeah, okay,
Speaker 2: but I don't know. I just as I said, I'm
Speaker 2: kind of like going back and forth, but like it
Speaker 2: did jump when I was going through. It did kind
Speaker 2: of jump off the table, off off the screen going. Man,
Speaker 2: it's it's an interesting number. I'm getting three and a
Speaker 2: half on the Titans against the Packers. Can. I mean
Speaker 2: they play cold weather football. That's what they do, right,
Speaker 2: I mean they ultimately in the NFL, they are the
Speaker 2: cold weather team in a lot of ways, where they
Speaker 2: can just line up and run the ball at you
Speaker 2: and I and the Packers have such a horrific run defense.
Speaker 2: Look what happened against the Vikings. Yeah, I mean it
Speaker 2: was I mean all Dalvin Cook all day. So do
Speaker 2: they make the mistake of playing six D b's again,
Speaker 2: Probably not, But you do have good receivers that they
Speaker 2: could be worried about in the same way they were
Speaker 2: worried about stopping feeling for the Vikings, you know, stopping
Speaker 2: AJ Browns Corey Davis on a monster game last week.
Speaker 2: As you had in your projections when one of your
Speaker 2: props was Corey Davis. I just think that hook at
Speaker 2: three and a half looks interesting.
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's an interesting one. I think the Titans are
Speaker 1: probably the right side because I don't see this as
Speaker 1: a game that the Packers. It's gonna be cold, you know,
Speaker 1: it's gonna be really cold. I don't see this as
Speaker 1: a monstrous, explosive offensive day necessarily for the Packers. And
Speaker 1: the Packers are as vulnerable against the run as you
Speaker 1: know pretty much any other team, and in a cold
Speaker 1: sort of scenario, you can give Derrick Henry the ball
Speaker 1: thirty five times and you're gonna be able to put
Speaker 1: up points and keep the game close and everything like that.
Speaker 1: I don't hate it. I you know, I don't love
Speaker 1: it because I just I don't have a great feel
Speaker 1: for this game. And I think I'm still scarred a
Speaker 1: little bit by the game that you had so perfectly nailed,
Speaker 1: which was that Browns game where the Browns destroyed the Titans,
Speaker 1: absolutely destroyed them. Makes me a little nervous here as
Speaker 1: to what are we going to see when the Titans
Speaker 1: face a real team with that, like a real offense
Speaker 1: like the Packers. But I'll put it on the maybe list.
Speaker 1: I don't hate it. I don't hate it, and I
Speaker 1: do think that's the right side with the hook, So
Speaker 1: I'll do that all right. Let's go through the rest
Speaker 1: of the games here. I mean, I have a couple
Speaker 1: of couple of mynor thoughts. Let's start with the Let
Speaker 1: me just make sure I haven't missed any Nope, I've
Speaker 1: gone through all those. How about the Bucks slaying nine
Speaker 1: and a half to the Lions in Detroit?
Speaker 2: What do you make of that team in Tampa? Like,
Speaker 2: what do you make of these guys? I just don't
Speaker 2: like their offense. I just I mean, I teased them
Speaker 2: down last week, so I got it right. But they
Speaker 2: were down big to the Falcons. I mean, they had
Speaker 2: to come all the way back on the road. Their
Speaker 2: second half was totally different than their first half, and
Speaker 2: they I thought that they would go into the buy,
Speaker 2: change things up, have a new offense, come out of
Speaker 2: the bye week and be you know, a dink and
Speaker 2: dunk team like Brady wants to be. Now, they did
Speaker 2: make Scotty Miller a bigger part of the offense, so
Speaker 2: that's important. So I'm glad to see that. But they've
Speaker 2: got him running fly patterns. He's not running slants, he's
Speaker 2: running go routes. So, like, I don't know what to
Speaker 2: make of this Bucks team. I need them to win
Speaker 2: it because I've got them to win ten games, so
Speaker 2: I have a bet on them to win ten games.
Speaker 2: So I needed to win this game year today. But man,
Speaker 2: I just yikes, it's tough to get behind them.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think, you know, probably you know, not to
Speaker 1: make any excuses for them, because that was a pretty
Speaker 1: pretty dismal effort. But I think, you know, Ronald Jones,
Speaker 1: to me, especially in the passing game, is just an
Speaker 1: upgrade over Leonard Fournette. So I think probably the you know,
Speaker 1: the running back out of the backfield made a difference.
Speaker 1: I don't think Ronald Jones is supposed to play in
Speaker 1: this game. I think there's right, there's doubt, so you've
Speaker 1: got that. It's just a first of all, I don't
Speaker 1: know for sure that Stafford is playing in this game, right,
Speaker 1: Stafford is basically good, you know, kudos to the guy
Speaker 1: who's as tough as they come playing through it. But
Speaker 1: you know, Gallave is still going to be out. Of course,
Speaker 1: if it's Chase Daniel, everything to me says like if
Speaker 1: I have to pick a side. I'm going with the
Speaker 1: Bucks under double digits, Like, I will take that because again,
Speaker 1: you can do whatever you want against Detroit, you know,
Speaker 1: from an offensive standpoint. I mean, you've got the three receivers,
Speaker 1: You've still got goronk, you can run the ball. They
Speaker 1: should be able to do whatever they want. So I
Speaker 1: do think that the Bucks are probably the right side.
Speaker 1: But yeah, you watch them and the way they came
Speaker 1: out against Atlanta. That was just an abysmal game. So
Speaker 1: I think that's not.
Speaker 2: How much you know what's funny. I don't know how
Speaker 2: much fun Brady's having. Yeah, watching him on the sidelines,
Speaker 2: this is when Brady normally gets to be Brady. Right
Speaker 2: in December is when he starts to really like to
Speaker 2: you start to feel it. You watch him and you're like, man,
Speaker 2: you watch the confidence, and you watch him he cares himself.
Speaker 2: You watch the swag come out of Brady. It never
Speaker 2: really happens until December and the postseason, right, and I
Speaker 2: don't see it out of him. I see a lot
Speaker 2: of frustration. I see a lot of concern. I see
Speaker 2: a lot of distrepidation in almost you know, being annoyed
Speaker 2: at what's happening, and I think he knows they're not
Speaker 2: that good of a football team.
Speaker 1: Yeah, they're not that good of a football team.
Speaker 2: Now.
Speaker 1: I'm not even saying that they don't have a chance
Speaker 1: to get to the super Bowl because they could get
Speaker 1: on a run. They have horses, they have a strong defense.
Speaker 1: They're just not playing very well at the moment, and
Speaker 1: I think it is frustrating. Brady is not playing very
Speaker 1: well at the moment either, so it's frustrating for them.
Speaker 1: But yeah, I think they're the right side at nine
Speaker 1: and a half. But I'm not really I'm not. I'm
Speaker 1: not to put it in the contest by anyway, Eagles
Speaker 1: laying two and a half to the Cowboys in Dallas.
Speaker 2: If I was going to bet it, it's the Eagles
Speaker 2: because I was on Jalen Hurts last week at plus
Speaker 2: six and it was a brutal loss.
Speaker 1: Oh, I know, just a brutal I was there too.
Speaker 2: That was that was just horrid. But I think Jalen
Speaker 2: Hurts is something I really do and I just did
Speaker 2: the only reason why I'm not backing it is I
Speaker 2: don't think the Eagles is a football team or that good.
Speaker 1: I think they're going to be such a public play
Speaker 1: I think right, because Hurts is like the type of
Speaker 1: play that you're like, oh my gosh, I got to
Speaker 1: back this guy under a field goal. The Cowboys are
Speaker 1: not as bad as I think people make them out
Speaker 1: to be. Their defense playing a little bit better. So
Speaker 1: I do like the Eagles as well, but I think
Speaker 1: that the public nature of it and the team just
Speaker 1: generally speaking pushes me off it a little bit. So
Speaker 1: it's a game that I do think that if I
Speaker 1: had to bet, it would be the Eagles, but not there.
Speaker 1: So this is interesting. What do you think? This is
Speaker 1: the Christmas Game? I believe the Saints lank seven and
Speaker 1: a half to the Vikings in New Orleans.
Speaker 2: Hate the hook, Yeah, looked at it. Hate the seven
Speaker 2: and a half. Six and a half would be all
Speaker 2: over New Orleans. Yeah, seven and a half. Yeah, that's
Speaker 2: that's my concern. Back door.
Speaker 1: Oh if I if I had to go somewhere, I'd
Speaker 1: go with the Vikings at seven a half. I don't
Speaker 1: want it.
Speaker 2: I like, yeah, the Vikings have the Vikings have now
Speaker 2: entered the put the black line through them of betting.
Speaker 2: For me, I am not backing the Vikings after what
Speaker 2: happened last week. I was not to play of the week.
Speaker 2: I was all in that. I thought I had that
Speaker 2: game perfectly correct, and they made they made Trubitsky look
Speaker 2: good again. And I just don't understand Dalvin Cook didn't
Speaker 2: run as hard as I thought he was going to,
Speaker 2: and that team when they get down, they don't know
Speaker 2: how to come from behind. Like you go up seven, nothing,
Speaker 2: you go up ten, nothing, it's almost over. Like it's
Speaker 2: just they just don't come back on anybody.
Speaker 1: Yep. Yeah, I think having a black line through them
Speaker 1: is the perfect way to put them, because, yeah, I
Speaker 1: think there's probably value on them at seven and a half.
Speaker 1: There's no way I'm backing them, But I don't know
Speaker 1: what I'm going to see from them week to week
Speaker 1: at all. So yeah, I agree, let's stay away wonderful
Speaker 1: Cardinals laying your favorite number five and a half the
Speaker 1: forty nine ers in Arizona.
Speaker 2: If I had to back it, I would take San Francisco. Yeah,
Speaker 2: but I don't like it because I don't like backing
Speaker 2: Nick Mullins.
Speaker 1: And it's not Nick Mullins.
Speaker 2: Oh, it's it's even worse. C J.
Speaker 1: Bether Now, Yeah, yeah, Mullins Mullins needs Tommy John surgery.
Speaker 1: I think actually, yeah, it's even worse.
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's right CD. But third yeah, yeah, because he
Speaker 2: came out of that game and his elbow was funk.
Speaker 2: It was funky, and he was like, it's really bad. Yeah,
Speaker 2: yeah it was. It didn't look good.
Speaker 1: That's the possibility.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, I just think running the football against
Speaker 2: the Cardinals is how you beat them. Yeah, and I
Speaker 2: think most of it should play right.
Speaker 1: No, he's out, he's on. I R now my friend
Speaker 1: is done. You've got Jeff Wilson and uh, you know,
Speaker 1: I guess Jerick McKinnon, maybe Tevin Coleman, who's also banged up.
Speaker 1: You've got Jeff Wilson, and you've got maybe George Kittle,
Speaker 1: and you've got Brandon Ayuk and that's it.
Speaker 2: Yeah. Maybe he just sucked me into the Cardinals.
Speaker 1: It can't be. It's five and a half.
Speaker 2: It's no. I wouldn't touch it. I'm not this game,
Speaker 2: absolutely not. I I don't like. I mean, the Cardinals
Speaker 2: aren't are a team. In terms of coaching, I think
Speaker 2: Cliff Kingsbury hasn't adapted nearly enough as he should have.
Speaker 2: He's had his system in place. And they run the
Speaker 2: same thing every week. Yeah, and like some weeks it works,
Speaker 2: in some weeks it doesn't. And it's it's if I
Speaker 2: was a Cardinal fan, I'd be concerned about that. That
Speaker 2: he seems like he's a one trick pony. And if
Speaker 2: Murray's not doing magic with his feet, they can't win. Yeah,
Speaker 2: Like they need him to run the football and pick
Speaker 2: up first downs. And then Hopkins last week was incredible.
Speaker 2: He was just amazed, absolutely incredible against the Eagles. So
Speaker 2: I mean, you have a guy like that making incredible
Speaker 2: catches and plays and touchdown catches that shouldn't be made,
Speaker 2: and okay, fine, that's how you win games. But I yeah,
Speaker 2: it's too it's too many unknowns for me.
Speaker 1: I don't like it. I just don't. I really don't.
Speaker 1: I don't have faith in the Cardinals yet. And the
Speaker 1: forty nine ers has beat up as they are, their
Speaker 1: defense is you know still you know, as healthy essentially
Speaker 1: as it's been, you know, and there they'll put up
Speaker 1: a fight, and I just I don't want to touch it.
Speaker 1: I'm with you. So how about the growth? I mean,
Speaker 1: you can't want this game either side. Texans laying eight
Speaker 1: and a half to the Bengals, and.
Speaker 2: There's no way. It's just I won't watch it. It's
Speaker 2: no we're talking.
Speaker 1: About the completely away. If you're betting that game, stop
Speaker 1: listening that. I'm just kidding to listen to the podcast.
Speaker 1: But yeah, neither. I don't want any part of it,
Speaker 1: no matter what, Chargers laying three and a half to
Speaker 1: the Broncos in Los Angeles.
Speaker 2: Look, look that this is this is one of those
Speaker 2: games where if we were gonna play game theory, Okay,
Speaker 2: no one's gonna pick this game. This game will be
Speaker 2: on like five percent of the picks. No one's gonna
Speaker 2: go near it. You take the Chargers at home against
Speaker 2: the Broncos, and you hope that they they play hard,
Speaker 2: and you hope that Herbert goes back to where he
Speaker 2: was because he wants to win the Offensive Rookie of
Speaker 2: the Year award, so he wants to put up big numbers.
Speaker 2: If we played game theory, it would be Chargers.
Speaker 1: In my mind, Yeah, I think that that's right. I
Speaker 1: don't want to play it though, there's no way, there's
Speaker 1: no way, get out of my get out of my
Speaker 1: I don't want that. Yeah, it's gross, it is gross.
Speaker 1: I don't I just don't want to touch it. It's
Speaker 1: not a I don't feel comfortable back in the Chargers.
Speaker 1: I don't feel comfortable back in the Broncos. I don't
Speaker 1: feel comfortable at all. Washington laying two and a half
Speaker 1: to the Panthers in Washington.
Speaker 2: So this is the revenge game, right, And if you
Speaker 2: believe in revenge games, you would take Washington here. It's
Speaker 2: it's hard to do so, just given where their offense
Speaker 2: is right now. And I mean you.
Speaker 1: Don't even know who's gonna be playing, correct.
Speaker 2: The Dwayne Haskins going to do a strip club story
Speaker 2: is pretty significant, yeah, And I mean Gibson's not gonna play.
Speaker 1: I doubt it.
Speaker 2: So, I mean, I don't know how you back Washington,
Speaker 2: but you would I would back Washington if I was
Speaker 2: going to back anybody.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I agree with that, like Washington would be. This one,
Speaker 1: by the way, is a legitimately, so you know the
Speaker 1: bet on the lines or I look and you can
Speaker 1: see generally speaking, you know the percentage of people who
Speaker 1: put in picks where they are on a side. Not
Speaker 1: a single person has put in a pick yet for
Speaker 1: this game. And I guess that's probably because of the
Speaker 1: quarterback situation, right, But it's just not a game that
Speaker 1: i'd want to go near because either way, I just don't.
Speaker 1: It's just Washington has a legitimate defense. If I knew
Speaker 1: Alex Smith was starting, maybe maybe I'd feel comfortable with them.
Speaker 1: But for now, let's stay away.
Speaker 2: Because this comes on Sunday, right.
Speaker 1: Yes, this game's on Sunday.
Speaker 2: So I mean like this could be one of those
Speaker 2: games by the time we get to the Sunday morning, yep,
Speaker 2: that the number has shifted so much that there's like
Speaker 2: an incredible value on Washington because this thing popped up.
Speaker 2: You know, we had to put these lines out on
Speaker 2: Wednesday before we knew.
Speaker 1: So if haskins, I'd be a game theory one though, Matt, Like,
Speaker 1: that's where I could see game theory going, like the
Speaker 1: Steelers this weekend. Right that line came out, I think
Speaker 1: before you knew that Ryan Finley was going to be
Speaker 1: the starter. Right on the line. I think ballooned after
Speaker 1: that for Ryan Finley to be the starter. And there
Speaker 1: was a time That's why I told you when we
Speaker 1: were talking and I looked at that how many people
Speaker 1: had picked Pittsburgh, and I said, rude for Cincinnati to
Speaker 1: cover the twelve and a half points spread, because I
Speaker 1: think when it closed might have been at like fifteen
Speaker 1: or something like that. Right, yep. So that's where you
Speaker 1: would say, here's a line that's locked in in the
Speaker 1: contest that then shifts. I think that is where game
Speaker 1: theory could play, where you'd be like, everybody's then going
Speaker 1: to be in non Washington. Let's just avoid it and
Speaker 1: hope for that upset if we have other games we like,
Speaker 1: you know what I'm saying.
Speaker 2: Yep?
Speaker 1: All right, So here's what we've gotten at We both
Speaker 1: like the Rams plus one and a half from the Seahawks,
Speaker 1: so that is in the Jaguars plus seven and a
Speaker 1: half from the Browns from the Bears, I'm sorry, and
Speaker 1: the Browns minus nine and a half to the Jets.
Speaker 1: So those are three that were definitely and we got
Speaker 1: a bunch of other possibles. I like the Ravens minus
Speaker 1: ten and a half to the Giants. Are you good
Speaker 1: with that?
Speaker 2: Yep?
Speaker 1: All right, So we've got that one, and then we've
Speaker 1: got four others that are under consideration, and that is
Speaker 1: the Raiders getting three and a half from the Dolphins,
Speaker 1: the Falcons getting ten and a half, from the Chiefs,
Speaker 1: the Bills laying seven and a half to the Patriots,
Speaker 1: but that one's not there, and the Titans getting three
Speaker 1: and a half from the Packers. I think if I
Speaker 1: would choose and I mentioned it, it would be the
Speaker 1: Falcons getting the ten and a half. And I like
Speaker 1: sort of the mix of heavy favorites and heavy dogs
Speaker 1: in this one, Like there's a lot of more than
Speaker 1: a touchdown. But I'd leave it to you to what
Speaker 1: you want.
Speaker 2: All right, So what is the current line for Falcons Chiefs?
Speaker 2: You don't have it in fun of me, do you? Yeah?
Speaker 1: Let me pull it up. I think it's a even
Speaker 1: it is way where is it? Where is sorry? Hold on, everybody,
Speaker 1: this is great. It's ten and a half still, that's
Speaker 1: where it is.
Speaker 2: It's ten and a half still, all right, So.
Speaker 1: It hasn't moved one way or another.
Speaker 2: So this number opened in Vegas. Opening number was twelve
Speaker 2: and a half. So the money, yes, the money's coming in.
Speaker 2: It's now ten and a half. So the money came
Speaker 2: in on the Falcons.
Speaker 1: So there's no way the Falcons are going to be
Speaker 1: a public play though, right, No.
Speaker 2: But what I'm what I mean by looking at that
Speaker 2: is that first line movement is professional. Yeah, so the
Speaker 2: money comes in first line move professional. Then there's closing
Speaker 2: line value, which is professionals at the end as to
Speaker 2: where the number actually closes, so opening line value and
Speaker 2: closing line value. So opening line value would say the
Speaker 2: right side is the Falcons, but we're getting a worse
Speaker 2: number than the opening line value. So there's money coming
Speaker 2: in on Atlanta and over ten and a half, it
Speaker 2: feels like Atlanta is the side. My only question would
Speaker 2: be why has this number stopped? So it's a Wednesday,
Speaker 2: so maybe the number comes in and we see over
Speaker 2: ten and a half. The number comes in, but in
Speaker 2: terms of the four games that we've listed, getting over
Speaker 2: ten and a half, getting over ten, going to ten
Speaker 2: and a half is the most attractive. Let me say
Speaker 2: that of a number.
Speaker 1: All right, So look, here's the deal. It's Wednesday. As
Speaker 1: we've said, we've got a lot more work to do
Speaker 1: to sort of get as much information as possible. And
Speaker 1: again you've got especially with COVID, where you've got random
Speaker 1: players suddenly sitting out and stuff like that. You's definitely change,
Speaker 1: but let's pencil them in. Then let's pencil it in here.
Speaker 1: Let's get we got a lot of we got Oh
Speaker 1: my god, we got three three numbers that are bordering
Speaker 1: around ten. We've got one over seven. Four of our
Speaker 1: five picks have lines over seven and a half. So
Speaker 1: I like that, all right. So here's what are pencil
Speaker 1: it rams getting one and a half from the Seahawks,
Speaker 1: Jaguars getting seven and a half from the Bears, Brown's
Speaker 1: laying nine and a half to the Jets, Ravens laying
Speaker 1: ten and a half to the Giants, and the Falcons
Speaker 1: getting ten and a half from the Chiefs. I kind
Speaker 1: of like those, Matt, and I also think that we
Speaker 1: have a few other games that I'd be willing to
Speaker 1: go with. Like I could see going with the Titans, Okay,
Speaker 1: we really went to I could see you talking me
Speaker 1: to the Raiders. I didn't think so at the time,
Speaker 1: but I could see about it. And if maybe people
Speaker 1: will talk you into the Bills laying seven and a half.
Speaker 1: But I don't know, you feel alright with this, Okay?
Speaker 2: I like your theory of big dogs and big favorites. Again,
Speaker 2: if we were going to I would rather have three
Speaker 2: to two dogs to favorites, which we do. So I
Speaker 2: like the fact that we're going more with underdogs here
Speaker 2: in week sixteen. It's just early speaking. The public has
Speaker 2: watched enough. The public starts laying favorites even heavier in
Speaker 2: seventeen and eighteen. Yeah, and in week sixteen seventeen rather yep,
Speaker 2: So I'm going I liked I liked these picks right now.
Speaker 1: Yeah, me too, me too, all right, very good, all right.
Speaker 1: So that's so. Just to be clear, this is the
Speaker 1: last week of the DraftKings contest. It only runs through
Speaker 1: week sixteen, Matt, your other two contests continue right through
Speaker 1: week seventeen. Now, regardless of the contest, we're still gonna
Speaker 1: be here. We'll just be talking the game and not
Speaker 1: putting them into contests, or we can maybe we'll come
Speaker 1: up with some fun game that we can have a
Speaker 1: little competition or something to do our best bets or
Speaker 1: something like that. But we will be here every week
Speaker 1: for this, we'll do the postseason. We'll have all the
Speaker 1: good things going. Maybe we'll get creative with some teasers
Speaker 1: and some two team teasers, which is the paral two
Speaker 1: team teasers. My favorite teasers eleven and six on the year. Yeah,
Speaker 1: you got a good one for this weekend. Get up
Speaker 1: you'll give it on the juice.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm gonna. I'm gonna have to do well. I'm
Speaker 2: My theory is when there's more than one game on
Speaker 2: a day, I do it.
Speaker 1: Okay.
Speaker 2: So like I've got Christmas, I've got Saturday, I've got Friday,
Speaker 2: Saturday and Sunday. Okay, I'll have tea. There's an all
Speaker 2: three days on the juice.
Speaker 1: Well, Friday, there's only one game though.
Speaker 2: Right, I thought there was more than one on Friday,
Speaker 2: only one.
Speaker 1: I think Friday is just the Saints and the Vikings
Speaker 1: and then I'll three three on Saturday and then the
Speaker 1: rest on some So the NFL.
Speaker 2: Isn't going to go head to head with the NBA. Huh,
Speaker 2: that's smart, I guess whatever. Whatever, So then Saturday Sunday
Speaker 2: will be there'll be one each one one Saturday.
Speaker 1: Well, well, nothing will beat your two team Bills down
Speaker 1: to basically a pick and the Packers down to two
Speaker 1: or whatever it was.
Speaker 2: I was talking to a book maker friend of mine.
Speaker 2: He was like, how much money did you put on that?
Speaker 2: It's like why, He's like, whatever you did, you should
Speaker 2: have put four times on it. Yeah, He's like, that.
Speaker 1: Was the I've been looking al ready for this week.
Speaker 1: The lines are sharp. I mean, at this point in
Speaker 1: the season, the lines are really good. So I haven't
Speaker 1: found one that I really liked, but that one I
Speaker 1: remember when you recommended it. I was like, oh.
Speaker 2: Yeah, everybody, every like, literally everyone I knew, had that
Speaker 2: teaser that was like the auto play teaser.
Speaker 1: Well, we'll get creative here as we go in. But again,
Speaker 1: thanks for listening. Check out the Daily Juice if you
Speaker 1: want more of Matt's picks. He's you know, everybody. I'm
Speaker 1: sure if you listen to this podcast, you listen to
Speaker 1: Daily Juice because you're a smart gambler. Anyway, we'll be
Speaker 1: back as always next week, probably on Thursday again doing
Speaker 1: it normally, But until then, good luck with all your
Speaker 1: wagers this weekend.