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Speaker 1: And everybody. Welcome back to another episode of the Betting

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Speaker 1: Pros NFL podcast. I'm your host, Dan Harris. With me,

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Speaker 1: of course, is Matt Parul. Find us on Twitter at

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Speaker 1: Dan Harris Ady and at Sports Talk Matt Matt. Week sixteen.

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Speaker 1: We dodged a bullet last week.

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Speaker 2: It was our week for everyone, Week fifteen.

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Speaker 1: Week fifteen, we dodged a bullet last week. Oh this

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Speaker 1: is week What?

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Speaker 2: This is Week sixteen?

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Speaker 1: Yes, welcome to the Week sixteen. We dodged the bullet

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Speaker 1: last week. What did I say?

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Speaker 2: You just kind of ran things together, like my.

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Speaker 1: Eight podcast of the day already. Man, I don't want

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Speaker 1: to hear this go ahead?

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Speaker 2: Why do I need the gospel bullet? We dodged a bullet.

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Speaker 2: Come up, it's week sixteen. But yes, yes, we did dodge.

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Speaker 2: I mean it was one of those things where I

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Speaker 2: got up in the morning and you were like, how

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Speaker 2: do you feel about the picks? And I said, I

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Speaker 2: hate them, yes, And it was just a gut feeling

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Speaker 2: that it was going to be a really bad weekend

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Speaker 2: for a lot of people. And it was a bloodbath

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Speaker 2: in a lot of ways. I mean, it was just

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Speaker 2: horrific for so many teams and so many people. I

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Speaker 2: mean for me in the Westgate and for me in

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Speaker 2: the circa contests that I'm in in the other I

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Speaker 2: got eviscerated all four and one in the West Gate.

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Speaker 1: Oh it is bad.

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Speaker 2: I got annihilated in the West Gate. It was just

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Speaker 2: one of those weeks where everything kind of screwy happened,

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Speaker 2: and it just my goodness, gracious, I am glad we

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Speaker 2: did not take this week and we used our last lifeline.

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Speaker 1: Well, so it's interesting we would have gone two and three.

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Speaker 1: I looked back on what we had, so, I mean,

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Speaker 1: it would have knocked us out of any sort of conspidration,

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Speaker 1: but that would probably that would have been the best

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Speaker 1: that you would have done in any of your contests,

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Speaker 1: because we would have lost on the Pats getting two

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Speaker 1: and a half from the Dolphins, the Vikings laying three

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Speaker 1: and a half to the Bears, and the Rams slightly

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Speaker 1: didn't cover the laying sixteen and a half to the Jets.

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Speaker 2: How did I feel about that? By the way, you,

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Speaker 2: being a Jet fan.

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Speaker 1: I think that it surprises me that every year they

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Speaker 1: find a new way to make you hate being a jetsman,

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Speaker 1: And this was one of the worst I mean, I'm

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Speaker 1: literally like none of that. Again, you know, obviously I'm

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Speaker 1: a fantasy guy, but in a very important fantasy matchup,

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Speaker 1: I had the Rams defense, which is something where you're like,

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Speaker 1: this is guaranteed we're gonna go It was terrible. All

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Speaker 1: It's terrible. That is what they do. And again, at

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Speaker 1: the beginning of the season, when I realized that they

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Speaker 1: were an historically terrible team, I was like, they'll still

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Speaker 1: find a way to go four and twelve and get

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Speaker 1: like the sixth pick and nobody will care because that's

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Speaker 1: what they do. But then I really bought in. I

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Speaker 1: really bought into the A and sixteen. How are they

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Speaker 1: gonna win a game, especially against the Rams. So yeah,

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Speaker 1: I feel terrible about it, But we'll talk about it, Matt,

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Speaker 1: and you mentioned it on the Daily Juice. But what

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Speaker 1: we're gonna see this weekend from the Jaguars, we'll.

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Speaker 2: Talk about that. It's the Doug Moron for revenge game.

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Speaker 1: What I'm saying. But let's hope, let's hope that we

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Speaker 1: get there. We would have hit on the Browns laying

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Speaker 1: four and a half to the Giants and the Cowboys.

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Speaker 1: Kudos to you, by the way, because I did not

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Speaker 1: love that game whatsoever. The Cowboys laying three and a

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Speaker 1: half to the forty nine ers, so we would have

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Speaker 1: gone two and three. But to the extent we're still

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Speaker 1: in contention, which we are all get in a second,

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Speaker 1: we would have lost that one. So we not a

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Speaker 1: good week for anybody though. And the thing about the contest, Matt,

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Speaker 1: So we are thirty six and twenty nine. That's fifty

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Speaker 1: five point four percent. That's that's good. And I think

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Speaker 1: we're in like one hundred and fiftieth place out of

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Speaker 1: seven hundred whatever people, So that's pretty good. Now, if

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Speaker 1: we went five and oh this week, it would be

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Speaker 1: fifty eight point six percent. That is right on the

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Speaker 1: border right now of cashing. I'm not one hundred percent

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Speaker 1: positive it would make. It would really depend on how

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Speaker 1: the people in front of us did. But that might

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Speaker 1: actually cash, which is pretty huge in this tournament, which

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Speaker 1: is a fifteen hundred dollars buy in, So people aren't

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Speaker 1: going in being like all right, whatver, I'm just good.

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Speaker 1: You know, they know what they're doing in this one.

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Speaker 1: So we got a shot, but we pretty much have

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Speaker 1: to go five and oh. Now the lines just came

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Speaker 1: out for the tournament. I checked last night. They weren't out.

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Speaker 1: I just sent them to you, so I'd kind of

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Speaker 1: looked at the lines based on where the consensus was

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Speaker 1: in the market without knowing these. So my feelings on

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Speaker 1: some of them might change a little bit, but we'll

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Speaker 1: have to see. So, Matt, early just impressions, How do

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Speaker 1: you feel about the lines generally?

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Speaker 2: Well, let me ask you this question is into this.

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Speaker 2: Do you believe in game theory or are we picking

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Speaker 2: games based upon who wins as if we were betting money.

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Speaker 1: This is a fantastic question, Matt, A fantastic question because

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Speaker 1: I thought about this a lot. Are we trying to

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Speaker 1: be contrarian in this to try to win money?

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Speaker 2: For me?

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Speaker 1: Matt, I really think that the bottom line is we

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Speaker 1: need to go five and oh. So, if there is

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Speaker 1: a something where it's like we've got two games that

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Speaker 1: we feel equally pretty good about, one of them is

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Speaker 1: probably one that's going to be a little bit contrarian,

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Speaker 1: I will opt for that one. But I'm not looking

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Speaker 1: to be like, well, let's go with this because they'll

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Speaker 1: never see this one coming, Like, we gotta make our

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Speaker 1: best picks. We gotta go five and oh So, whichever

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Speaker 1: way it comes out is fine. What about you, what

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Speaker 1: do you think you would do?

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Speaker 2: I think being contrarian as much as possible is important

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Speaker 2: yes here, And because it is our last week, and

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Speaker 2: because we have a shot at it, I do think

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Speaker 2: we need to be a little bit on the game

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Speaker 2: theory side versus the pick theory side, just because it

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Speaker 2: could lead us if we go five and oh, and

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Speaker 2: I mean we can hold serve and there's nothing wrong

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Speaker 2: with holding serve. Yeah, but we're not trying to hold

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Speaker 2: serve right now. We're outside the money at one p fifty,

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Speaker 2: so we're trying to get in. So let's be a

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Speaker 2: little bit more on the aggressive side when it comes

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Speaker 2: to fading, you know, where what we think may actually

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Speaker 2: happen here because I think it could lead us to

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Speaker 2: you know, if we do go five and oh, we

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Speaker 2: could find ourselves right in a good spot.

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Speaker 1: So the biggest thing that I will say, well, there

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Speaker 1: are two things really. Number one that's Wednesday. Okay, we

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Speaker 1: usually record this on Thursday. We have a little bit

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Speaker 1: more information, we have a little bit more time to digest.

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Speaker 1: So this is an important week for us, of course.

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Speaker 1: So Matt, as you always do, you talk to people

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Speaker 1: who are in the know. You get convinced one way

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Speaker 1: or another, so you can follow up. So this week, more

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Speaker 1: than any other week, it's going to be our like

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Speaker 1: proposed picks, but we definitely may change often. But number two,

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Speaker 1: of course, as much as people who listen to this podcast,

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Speaker 1: and we love them all, I'm sure are very interested

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Speaker 1: in how we are pursuing the Draft Kings Championship. Of

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Speaker 1: course they also want betting. It's like guard let's for them.

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Speaker 1: So we will of course not just be like, well,

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Speaker 1: this might be the play, but we're going contraria to

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Speaker 1: go here, like we'll make it clear which way our

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Speaker 1: leans are. So all right, Matt, you've got the Lions

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Speaker 1: now and again you can look at wherever you at it.

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Speaker 1: There are certain things where the Draftking lines. There are

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Speaker 1: some that are better than the consensus, some that are worse.

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Speaker 1: So what do you think you can start us off?

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Speaker 1: What's your number one play this week?

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Speaker 2: Now, let me just say I we've just now had

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Speaker 2: a chance to go through it, so like my order

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Speaker 2: of favorite plays are probably going to change here. Yeah,

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Speaker 2: we've got games on Friday, Saturday and Sunday, right, yes, sir, Okay,

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Speaker 2: So this is a little bit of a weird week.

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Speaker 2: Do we know the rules on the DraftKings? If we

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Speaker 2: play Friday, can we play Saturday and Sunday without having

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Speaker 2: to give them all in? Yes, so the Friday rules

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Speaker 2: and Saturday rules apply like it's a Thursday game, correct. Okay,

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Speaker 2: So I like that, so we actually can kind of go,

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Speaker 2: you know, day by day.

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Speaker 1: So just so you know, Matt, here are the rules. Okay,

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Speaker 1: when you make a pick, you have to put in

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Speaker 1: all five of your picks to enter any pick, but

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Speaker 1: you can edit your picks up until Sunday morning at

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Speaker 1: ten am. Perfect. If you make all your picks, you

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Speaker 1: want a Saturday game, you put them in now. If

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Speaker 1: you change your mind before the Saturday game, you just

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Speaker 1: change it like before the kickoffs, so you can do

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Speaker 1: whatever they want.

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Speaker 2: I love that. That's great in terms of right now

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Speaker 2: where I sit. Okay, I personally think the La Rams

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Speaker 2: catching one and a half points yea in the bounce

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Speaker 2: back of bounce back spots. I got them catching points

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Speaker 2: in a game that they have to win against Seattle,

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Speaker 2: and I don't think Seattle's all that good in particular defensively,

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Speaker 2: you could say that the Rams are looking ahead to

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Speaker 2: this game because this is for the division. This is

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Speaker 2: a divisional game. They had the lead by a game,

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Speaker 2: so they guess they had a game in hand. They

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Speaker 2: could technically lose it and still win the division if

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Speaker 2: they beat Seattle. They have to win this game. I

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Speaker 2: think the Rams win the game outright.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I'll put in pencil for now, But I'm almost

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Speaker 1: sure that's going to be one of our picks because

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Speaker 1: I have it as well. I have a little trepidation

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Speaker 1: with it match just because I do think golf. Well,

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Speaker 1: it's Jared, this is exactly correct, right, Like, didn't we

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Speaker 1: kind of think like we got to be past this

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Speaker 1: type of effort that we saw from the Jets. But

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Speaker 1: if you can go that route and lose that game,

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Speaker 1: I don't care about how much of a letdown spot,

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Speaker 1: how much you're looking past it whatever. That was one

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Speaker 1: of the worst played games I have ever seen in

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Speaker 1: my life. The Jets didn't play well in that whatever

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Speaker 1: that was the Rams. Man, it was really remarkable to

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Speaker 1: see that. So it's a little worrisome. At the same time,

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Speaker 1: if we're thinking about this game, it's the best thing

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Speaker 1: that could happen to the Rams, because you know, this right,

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Speaker 1: This is a And I also, what do you think

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Speaker 1: this is going to? Do you think the public's gonna

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Speaker 1: come in down the Seahawks here? Do you think they're

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Speaker 1: going to see what happened last week and be a

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Speaker 1: very public play for the Seahawks?

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Speaker 2: And I think there's a good chance of it. I

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Speaker 2: think you'll see some public sharper, smarter people maybe come

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Speaker 2: back on the rams.

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Speaker 1: Yep.

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Speaker 2: But I do think you're going to see this line

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Speaker 2: climb at least approaching kickoff with public people coming in

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Speaker 2: saying Seattle's the best team in the division. The here

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Speaker 2: comes ste came Metcalf, yep. I just I watched Aaron

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Speaker 2: Donald leave the field and how mad he was when

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Speaker 2: he left the field. I was like, oh, I am

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Speaker 2: feeling bad for Russ next week because that guy's gonna

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Speaker 2: be on the ship.

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Speaker 1: And the thing is they're not playing that well, the

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Speaker 1: Seahawks right now. They haven't played well in a long time.

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Speaker 1: You know. Russ's is not, you know, playing as well.

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Speaker 1: He's getting his butt kicked a little bit, he's holding

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Speaker 1: the ball a little bit too long, and yeah, DK

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Speaker 1: Metcalf always has the chance to make giant plays, but

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Speaker 1: Tyler Lockett hasn't been involved really at all. The Rams

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Speaker 1: are gonna be so pissed after this game. Now cam

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Speaker 1: Makers is out. That does hurt because A is an

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Speaker 1: upgrade over Daryl Hunterson and Malcolm Brown. I just don't

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Speaker 1: think it's enough so divisional game. You know, it's one

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Speaker 1: and a half points, but I do like it. I

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Speaker 1: think the Rams are going to win this game out

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Speaker 1: Like I have sprinkled some of the money line already,

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Speaker 1: so I do think that they're gonna get it. So yep,

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Speaker 1: I'm good with it. Let's put it there, all right, Matt.

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Speaker 1: We're gonna get ugly this week. And I mentioned it

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Speaker 1: a little bit before, but I realize that the Bears are,

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Speaker 1: you know, in the hunt and playing well, and the

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Speaker 1: Jaguars are terrible, and they may be down James Robinson

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Speaker 1: right now, but I think that Gardner Minshew is going

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Speaker 1: to be able to keep this game at roughly a

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Speaker 1: touchdown or closer. And this just strikes me as a

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Speaker 1: way to fade the Bears. And again you mentioned on

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Speaker 1: The Juice, which I loved. It was maybe my favorite

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Speaker 1: moment on The Daily Juice where you aptly pointed out

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Speaker 1: Doug Marron don't care. Okay, no, he's gone. He's not

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Speaker 1: coaching this team next year, does he really is? He like, man,

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Speaker 1: we got a tank so we can get Trevor Lawrence.

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Speaker 1: I mean, think about Adam Gase. Adam Gase isn't tanking.

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Speaker 1: Adam Gase isn't here next year. They don't care. He's

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Speaker 1: not going to tank. The team plays hard. They don't

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Speaker 1: have the horses, but they play hard. Gardner Minshew again,

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Speaker 1: I mean, Baltimore was completely out of their league. I

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Speaker 1: don't think the Bears necessarily are. I think you know

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Speaker 1: that the defense is good, but it's mainly the run defense.

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Speaker 1: I think Mitchell will be able to move the ball,

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Speaker 1: passing it and keep it close enough where it'll be

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Speaker 1: within a touchdown at seven and a half at home.

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Speaker 1: It's ugly, but I actually like the Jaguars here.

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Speaker 2: I think they moved. They might win the game out right.

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Speaker 1: Yes, I kind of think that too.

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Speaker 2: This is what I really after listening to the clip

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Speaker 2: of Doug Maron when he was asked about tanking after

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Speaker 2: the game, saying, you know, the Jets they've lost here.

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Speaker 2: You know, what is your philosophy? What do you do?

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Speaker 2: Over his last two games, and he was angry when

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Speaker 2: he answered it. It wasn't like a, well, you know,

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Speaker 2: we're gonna go out there and do our best. And

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Speaker 2: you know, he was like, we're not tanking. What are

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Speaker 2: you talking about. We're not losing, We're not doing that.

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Speaker 2: And I went, oh my gosh, this guy knows he's fired.

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Speaker 2: And Trevor Lawrence going to Jacksonville guarantees he's fired. There's

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Speaker 2: no way they let that guy go anywhere near Trevor Lawrence.

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Speaker 2: So why in the world would he want to lose?

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Speaker 2: Why would he want to tank for a kid, a

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Speaker 2: quarterback he'll never coach, and he's angry he's losing his job.

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Speaker 2: It's human nature, right, you know you're fired, you're a

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Speaker 2: dead man walking. What's the best way to just stick

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Speaker 2: it to your employer? Win? I think they could win

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Speaker 2: the game out right.

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Speaker 1: I I'm not gonna lie. I also have just a

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Speaker 1: tiny bit a time because's like plus three hundred or

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Speaker 1: whatever for the Jags on the money line, because I

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Speaker 1: do think that there's a chance I can win. But again, realistically,

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Speaker 1: the Jaguars, they've covered several times where you've been like,

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Speaker 1: what are you talking about? Like they managed to keep

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Speaker 1: a game close, and again, as many points as the

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Speaker 1: Bears have put up lately is as much as you know,

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Speaker 1: Dave Montgomery is really playing well and Mischal Trubisky is

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Speaker 1: you know, passable at this moment. I just think that

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Speaker 1: you're gonna see Gardner Minshew be able to put up

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Speaker 1: some points enough to keep close with them, and again

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Speaker 1: talk about tanking Matt like, I realistically think no team

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Speaker 1: actually says we we are. Like, if you're out on

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Speaker 1: the football field, for the most part, you're I don't

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Speaker 1: think teams go out there and are like, I'm just

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Speaker 1: gonna kind of olay this guy. Not you see teams

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Speaker 1: maybe being like I'm not gonna put my health at

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Speaker 1: risk by tackling this guy, or maybe not like that,

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Speaker 1: but they try, you play to win the game, and

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Speaker 1: especially a code who is coaching, Like no coach wants

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Speaker 1: to be like I'm tanking on purpose to do this,

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Speaker 1: so they're gonna play to win. So yeah, I like

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Speaker 1: it over touch. And I wanted to see what the

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Speaker 1: spread was in the DraftKings contest because it was seven

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Speaker 1: and a half generally speaking, once to see in the contest,

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Speaker 1: it's also seven and a half. So if you're good

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Speaker 1: with that, I'm good with it.

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Speaker 2: All right. So we got favorite we go dog with

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Speaker 2: the Rams, dog with the Jags. I got one more dog,

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Speaker 2: dogg I want to talk about, okay, and I think

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Speaker 2: this is you want to talk ugly? All right? This

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Speaker 2: is ugly.

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Speaker 1: Oh okay, it's not what I'm thinking I've got. I've

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Speaker 1: got a dog that I'm I'm hope I was hoping

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Speaker 1: that you'd get to but it's not gonna go.

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Speaker 2: This is this is ugly because I'm gonna ride a

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Speaker 2: backup quarterback to do something here, and I'm gonna take

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Speaker 2: Vegas at plus three and a half against the against

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Speaker 2: the Dolphins. The Patriots should have won that game, all right.

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Speaker 2: It was right there. There were so many chances for them.

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Speaker 2: And just Cam Newton can't do anything. Okay, he just

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Speaker 2: can't throw, he can't run. I don't think that Dolphins

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Speaker 2: defense is playing very well, and I know that Dolphins

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Speaker 2: offense is not playing very well. I think the Raiders,

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Speaker 2: they're healthy. They've got to win the game to stay

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Speaker 2: in the playoff chase. This is it. They lose the game,

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Speaker 2: they're done. Their entire seasons on the line. I think

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Speaker 2: jobs are on the line. I think coaches jobs are

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Speaker 2: on the line. We've already seen the DC get fired

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Speaker 2: in Vegas. I think you could see more coaches getting

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Speaker 2: fired because Gruden is gonna get really angry, and he

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Speaker 2: likes Mariota. He thinks Marcus Mariota is Something's White gave

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Speaker 2: him a two year, seventeen million dollar contract to play

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Speaker 2: quarterback for this spot. Mariota's playing for a job. He

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Speaker 2: could wind up. Look what Cam Cam got a starting job?

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Speaker 2: Why couldn't Marcus Mariota get a starting job next year?

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Speaker 2: I think at plus three and a half, I'm getting

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Speaker 2: more than a field goal. That hook matters to me.

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Speaker 2: I don't think that Dolphins offense is that great. I

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Speaker 2: know the defense for the Raiders gets no pressure. I

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Speaker 2: understand that, but I think that this is a game

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Speaker 2: where the offense can put points up. I'll take the

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Speaker 2: three and a half in the Raiders.

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Speaker 1: So all right, So a couple ugly?

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Speaker 2: It is ugly.

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Speaker 1: Oh, it's likely there are a couple. I have a

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Speaker 1: couple questions. First of all, I've been assuming based on

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Speaker 1: the injury sound pretty bad. That cars up. But he's

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Speaker 1: splitting reps here in practice with Marios.

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Speaker 2: There's no way this dude's playing. I mean I could play,

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Speaker 2: I guess, but like I am banking on a backup quarterback.

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Speaker 2: He tours coin. Yeah, I mean it was not It

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Speaker 2: was not pretty. I mean, yes, as a quarterback you

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Speaker 2: don't have to run. You can kind of stand back

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Speaker 2: there if you can move around a little bit, right,

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Speaker 2: But given how fluid Mariota was, and yes, he threw

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Speaker 2: behind his receivers like crazy, but he did have that

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Speaker 2: drop in the bucket throw to Waller which was pretty

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Speaker 2: nice for a touchdown.

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Speaker 1: So he played very well. He played very well in

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Speaker 1: that game overall, like completely coming off the.

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Speaker 2: Bench cold, he definitely played well.

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Speaker 1: Yes, yeah, So so it's interesting when I originally did

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Speaker 1: my notes on it, I didn't really think about this

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Speaker 1: game because it was three three and a half makes

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Speaker 1: it far more indicing when I'm looking at it. And again,

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Speaker 1: the what I like about this is that, I mean

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Speaker 1: the split on the public in this The public's going

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Speaker 1: to be all over the Dolphins, yes one right, because

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Speaker 1: the Raiders, you know, they they looked, you know, well,

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Speaker 1: a competent on national TV. But I got the backup quarterback.

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Speaker 1: Everybody's starting to love the Dolphins At this point, I

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Speaker 1: worry a little bit about what we're going to I mean,

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Speaker 1: I get that the Raiders have to win. I just

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Speaker 1: don't know whether or not the Raiders have the horses

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Speaker 1: to win this game. I mean, Jacob's banged up. It's

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Speaker 1: really Waller, like, it's really Waller at this point, the

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Speaker 1: Dolphins the event.

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Speaker 2: Was open though maryo to have missed agial He was

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Speaker 2: always open and they always had on a prop bet

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Speaker 2: I need nine more yards. He tried to be four,

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Speaker 2: actually trying to be five more yards for Agalar, but

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Speaker 2: he was open. He was opening a lot and Marrillar

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Speaker 2: just missed him. So if he can get on the

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Speaker 2: same page as him, it's not just Waller. I mean,

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Speaker 2: I know you. I think Ruggs is going to be

385
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Speaker 2: a really interesting case.

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Speaker 1: And it cooks back, by the way, from the COVID

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Speaker 1: nineteen list because he was on it.

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Speaker 2: I don't know it was contact tracing, right, he he

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Speaker 2: didn't have COVID right.

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Speaker 1: He was, I don't think so.

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Speaker 2: Right.

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Speaker 1: Has he been activated though yet?

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Speaker 2: I haven't seen it, But it just he hasn't been

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Speaker 2: the weapon that we thought he was going to be

395
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Speaker 2: in this offense. No, it's all Waller and it's all Jacobs,

396
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Speaker 2: and the offensive line has gotten healthy er and it

397
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Speaker 2: has been playing better or they're still not without I mean,

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Speaker 2: the last incognito for the year and whatnot. But I

399
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Speaker 2: just think this is like, this is the season, this

400
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Speaker 2: is everything. And to lose by a field goal, yeah,

401
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Speaker 2: I can see that, lose by three, but that hook

402
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Speaker 2: matters to me? About the three and a half in

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Speaker 2: the contest.

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Speaker 1: Okay, well, I'm gonna put on the maybe list because

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Speaker 1: I'm not in love with it. I worry a little

406
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Speaker 1: bit about the Raiders, and again I also for the Raiders,

407
00:17:22,680 --> 00:17:25,520
Speaker 1: and the health of the Dolphins matters to me as well.

408
00:17:25,800 --> 00:17:28,520
Speaker 1: Is Gasking coming back or any pass is any pass

409
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Speaker 1: catcher coming back for Dolphins? Is the Balthley Parker or

410
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Speaker 1: Mica Sicky or Jaquim Grant or anybody who's out there

411
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Speaker 1: coming back? So I'll put it on the babe list

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Speaker 1: because I do like the hook. Oh at three, I

413
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Speaker 1: kind of discounted either side because I didn't like it

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Speaker 1: on either side. Three and a half feel a little

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Speaker 1: bit different now. The dog that I thought you might

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Speaker 1: be going with, Matt that I kind of like this week.

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Speaker 1: Are the Falcons getting ten and a half from the

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Speaker 1: Chiefs in case c Now, the Chiefs are gonna win

419
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Speaker 1: this game without question. But the Falcons are not a

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Speaker 1: terrible football team. I mean, even without Julio Jones. You know,

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Speaker 1: Raey Morris is a good coach. He has them coached up.

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Speaker 1: The defense is playing. Okay, they were way ahead in

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Speaker 1: that Bucks game, but they falconed it as they always do.

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Speaker 1: So the Chiefs, as we know, they're a great team,

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Speaker 1: but they are not interested in winning by twenty five points, right,

426
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Speaker 1: Like they're just not. They let teams sort of hang around.

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Speaker 1: You're getting more than ten in this game. It strikes

428
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Speaker 1: me as this is you know, a seven point win,

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Speaker 1: maybe a ten point win. I don't think I see

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Speaker 1: it as like a twenty point win in this game

431
00:18:29,800 --> 00:18:32,400
Speaker 1: or something like that. So getting double digits more than

432
00:18:32,440 --> 00:18:35,000
Speaker 1: ten in this game, I kind of like the Falcons.

433
00:18:35,040 --> 00:18:36,600
Speaker 1: What do you I mean, it's in it's a narrowhead.

434
00:18:36,680 --> 00:18:40,760
Speaker 2: So yeah, you know, paying what is that? It's Julio playing.

435
00:18:41,119 --> 00:18:43,760
Speaker 1: I'm gonna assume that Julio's not playing. He might he's

436
00:18:43,840 --> 00:18:45,880
Speaker 1: trying desperately to play. My guess is going to play

437
00:18:45,880 --> 00:18:49,560
Speaker 1: week seventeen, not this game. If he played play this week.

438
00:18:49,760 --> 00:18:51,920
Speaker 2: Yeah, if he played, I would feel a little bit better.

439
00:18:52,000 --> 00:18:53,359
Speaker 2: But really had a monster game.

440
00:18:53,560 --> 00:18:55,479
Speaker 1: Yeah, and Gauge played well as well.

441
00:18:55,560 --> 00:18:58,080
Speaker 2: Yeah, Gates played very well. And and and and look,

442
00:18:58,119 --> 00:19:00,080
Speaker 2: Matt Ryan's playing well, he's he I mean, there's a

443
00:19:00,080 --> 00:19:02,320
Speaker 2: big you know, there's all that talk about Matt Ryan

444
00:19:02,400 --> 00:19:07,520
Speaker 2: potentially going to San Francisco and going back with Kyle Shanahan,

445
00:19:07,680 --> 00:19:09,960
Speaker 2: and that's been you know, so he's he wants to

446
00:19:09,960 --> 00:19:11,800
Speaker 2: put up numbers and he wants to prove he can

447
00:19:11,800 --> 00:19:14,240
Speaker 2: still be a starting quarterback in the NFL. So there's

448
00:19:14,280 --> 00:19:16,840
Speaker 2: a lot to play for here. Oh, five and one,

449
00:19:17,200 --> 00:19:19,040
Speaker 2: depending on the number that you got. If you got

450
00:19:19,040 --> 00:19:21,320
Speaker 2: two and a half late, you covered that game with

451
00:19:21,400 --> 00:19:23,240
Speaker 2: the Saints. But if you got it at three, which

452
00:19:23,280 --> 00:19:25,399
Speaker 2: was pretty much where it was forever, right, you know,

453
00:19:25,440 --> 00:19:27,879
Speaker 2: they're five and one over the last six games against

454
00:19:27,920 --> 00:19:31,160
Speaker 2: the spread, and they've been backdoored for four consecutive weeks. Yeah,

455
00:19:31,200 --> 00:19:34,720
Speaker 2: it's really weird. And so they go up and they

456
00:19:34,800 --> 00:19:37,280
Speaker 2: just stop. And I've been telling people who you know,

457
00:19:37,359 --> 00:19:39,000
Speaker 2: I got friends of mine who are chief fans, and

458
00:19:39,000 --> 00:19:41,440
Speaker 2: I'm like, you guys, better stop doing that because at

459
00:19:41,440 --> 00:19:43,959
Speaker 2: some point in the playoffs you're gonna get burned. If

460
00:19:44,000 --> 00:19:46,200
Speaker 2: you're not playing fourth quarter games, you're not playing all

461
00:19:46,240 --> 00:19:48,760
Speaker 2: four quarters. You're gonna get yourself into a fourth quarter

462
00:19:48,800 --> 00:19:50,640
Speaker 2: game and it's gonna be like the Titans game last year,

463
00:19:50,680 --> 00:19:53,119
Speaker 2: but in reverse, where you're gonna be up big and

464
00:19:53,119 --> 00:19:55,119
Speaker 2: then you're gonna lose because you're just not gonna be

465
00:19:55,119 --> 00:19:57,080
Speaker 2: able to hold on to a lead. So I don't

466
00:19:57,080 --> 00:19:58,879
Speaker 2: hate it. Ten and a half's a big number and

467
00:19:59,080 --> 00:20:01,199
Speaker 2: big number, and I think it will come down by

468
00:20:01,200 --> 00:20:04,000
Speaker 2: the time kickoff happens. I think you'll see professionals come

469
00:20:04,040 --> 00:20:08,080
Speaker 2: in and take the points. I'm I'm okay with going

470
00:20:08,119 --> 00:20:11,000
Speaker 2: heavy on dogs this weekend, right, I really am. In

471
00:20:11,040 --> 00:20:14,359
Speaker 2: Week sixteen and seventeen, I'm comfortable even road you know,

472
00:20:14,440 --> 00:20:17,119
Speaker 2: double digit road favorite road dogs. I'm comfortable. If I'm

473
00:20:17,119 --> 00:20:19,479
Speaker 2: getting points, I feel good. So I'd be comfortable at

474
00:20:19,480 --> 00:20:20,040
Speaker 2: ten and a half.

475
00:20:20,280 --> 00:20:22,280
Speaker 1: Yeah. So the thing, you know, to the extent I

476
00:20:22,280 --> 00:20:24,600
Speaker 1: want to make the case against it, which worries me

477
00:20:24,640 --> 00:20:27,200
Speaker 1: a little bit, is that the Chiefs have a very

478
00:20:27,240 --> 00:20:30,840
Speaker 1: strong pass defense, their run defense is a little susceptible,

479
00:20:30,840 --> 00:20:32,680
Speaker 1: and the Falcons can't run the ball. They just can't.

480
00:20:32,760 --> 00:20:36,119
Speaker 1: They're just passing, and you know that's where the strength is.

481
00:20:36,160 --> 00:20:39,240
Speaker 1: But again, this is just what it is. Ten and

482
00:20:39,280 --> 00:20:42,359
Speaker 1: a half man. They don't cover the line. They just don't.

483
00:20:42,440 --> 00:20:44,600
Speaker 1: They they're not interested in it, they don't care. And

484
00:20:44,640 --> 00:20:46,879
Speaker 1: again you get you know, you're telling me, you know

485
00:20:47,119 --> 00:20:50,479
Speaker 1: what at thirty to twenty, you know you're fine with

486
00:20:50,520 --> 00:20:53,120
Speaker 1: the Falcons. You're good there. So I kind of like it.

487
00:20:53,240 --> 00:20:54,920
Speaker 1: I'd like it a lot more if the Falcons are home,

488
00:20:54,960 --> 00:20:57,240
Speaker 1: of course. Yeah, but yeah, all right, we'll put on

489
00:20:57,320 --> 00:20:58,720
Speaker 1: the maybe lest what else? A goat?

490
00:20:59,720 --> 00:21:02,640
Speaker 2: So I've got favorites here, yep, And so those are

491
00:21:02,680 --> 00:21:05,240
Speaker 2: my three. So really we have five picks, five dogs

492
00:21:05,320 --> 00:21:05,800
Speaker 2: right now?

493
00:21:06,720 --> 00:21:09,440
Speaker 1: So if what's our fifth on? What did I mean?

494
00:21:10,359 --> 00:21:15,239
Speaker 2: Raiders, Jags, Rams? Oh? And so we have four now okay? Four?

495
00:21:15,480 --> 00:21:16,959
Speaker 1: Sorry full yeah and the Falcons.

496
00:21:17,040 --> 00:21:17,520
Speaker 2: Yeah.

497
00:21:17,640 --> 00:21:20,639
Speaker 1: So but by the way, I also my only remaining

498
00:21:20,680 --> 00:21:22,879
Speaker 1: picks where I have actual like leans for them, are

499
00:21:22,920 --> 00:21:24,359
Speaker 1: all favorites as well, just so you know.

500
00:21:24,600 --> 00:21:29,280
Speaker 2: Okay, so I I want to go back to the

501
00:21:29,280 --> 00:21:33,680
Speaker 2: well against your Jets, Yes, and I feel like, go ahead,

502
00:21:33,680 --> 00:21:35,720
Speaker 2: there's okay, So I just think nine and a half

503
00:21:35,920 --> 00:21:40,240
Speaker 2: blow ten for Cleveland. This is where actually Cleveland gets

504
00:21:40,280 --> 00:21:42,720
Speaker 2: to get all their fans into a lather for the

505
00:21:42,760 --> 00:21:45,760
Speaker 2: Super Bowl and they'll blow the Jets out by thirty

506
00:21:46,200 --> 00:21:48,880
Speaker 2: and the Jets will just you know, they played their

507
00:21:48,920 --> 00:21:51,040
Speaker 2: super Bowl, if you will, they won their one game,

508
00:21:51,400 --> 00:21:53,120
Speaker 2: and to turn around and fade them the next week

509
00:21:53,119 --> 00:21:54,639
Speaker 2: against the team that's gonna run the ball down the

510
00:21:54,680 --> 00:21:56,520
Speaker 2: throats and just win the game twenty to three and

511
00:21:56,560 --> 00:21:57,080
Speaker 2: walk away.

512
00:21:57,320 --> 00:21:57,560
Speaker 1: Yep.

513
00:21:58,440 --> 00:22:00,000
Speaker 2: I can lay the nine and a half with Cleveland.

514
00:22:00,200 --> 00:22:03,200
Speaker 1: Yep. This was definitely on my list, and I what's

515
00:22:03,200 --> 00:22:05,160
Speaker 1: funny matter is, I was like, I think this one's

516
00:22:05,200 --> 00:22:07,240
Speaker 1: gonna be a winner with Matt, So I'm not gonna

517
00:22:07,240 --> 00:22:09,800
Speaker 1: waste it yet. I'm gonna hold it for now just

518
00:22:09,840 --> 00:22:11,560
Speaker 1: in case it gets support where like, oh man, I'm

519
00:22:11,560 --> 00:22:14,960
Speaker 1: gonna be like boom the one like if you want

520
00:22:15,080 --> 00:22:17,840
Speaker 1: a worry about it, because I I realistically I had

521
00:22:17,840 --> 00:22:19,199
Speaker 1: in my notes it was nine and a half in

522
00:22:19,240 --> 00:22:22,080
Speaker 1: the consensus lines. I had my notes if it gets

523
00:22:22,119 --> 00:22:23,960
Speaker 1: to ten, I really hope it doesn't get to ten

524
00:22:24,000 --> 00:22:25,600
Speaker 1: in the contest. If it's days at nine and a half,

525
00:22:25,720 --> 00:22:27,720
Speaker 1: which it did, I felt good about it because again,

526
00:22:28,240 --> 00:22:32,439
Speaker 1: kudos to the Browns, who are absolutely legitimate. They are

527
00:22:32,480 --> 00:22:35,960
Speaker 1: playing great. Baker is playing great. You know, Richard Higgins

528
00:22:36,040 --> 00:22:38,120
Speaker 1: is playing great. The run game is good, the defense

529
00:22:38,200 --> 00:22:41,680
Speaker 1: is solid. You know, they're getting healthier there. The Jets, absolutely,

530
00:22:41,960 --> 00:22:45,960
Speaker 1: they played a good game against a good team. But again,

531
00:22:46,040 --> 00:22:48,040
Speaker 1: for me, that game was more about the Rems. You

532
00:22:48,080 --> 00:22:52,040
Speaker 1: want something to basically be like, oh man, maybe they

533
00:22:52,080 --> 00:22:54,720
Speaker 1: don't completely destroy the Jets. Is the fact that they

534
00:22:54,760 --> 00:22:58,880
Speaker 1: could be looking ahead right too week seventeen against the Steelers, which.

535
00:22:58,760 --> 00:23:01,159
Speaker 2: Right now because they have to win the game to

536
00:23:01,280 --> 00:23:02,040
Speaker 2: keep pace.

537
00:23:02,320 --> 00:23:04,679
Speaker 1: It's true, but it could be something where they you know,

538
00:23:04,720 --> 00:23:06,239
Speaker 1: you go in and you say, well, we're gonna win

539
00:23:06,280 --> 00:23:09,359
Speaker 1: this game. We know that, like what you know, focus

540
00:23:09,400 --> 00:23:11,200
Speaker 1: on Pittsburgh are like, what will be the Jets?

541
00:23:12,040 --> 00:23:13,880
Speaker 2: So we start doing that, that's dangerous.

542
00:23:14,200 --> 00:23:16,800
Speaker 1: I agree the brown that's what happens. I'm sure the

543
00:23:16,880 --> 00:23:19,119
Speaker 1: Rams probably did that a little bit, right. The Rams

544
00:23:19,160 --> 00:23:21,119
Speaker 1: probably looked ahead to the Seahawks a little bit and

545
00:23:21,160 --> 00:23:22,920
Speaker 1: came out against the Jet. We're going to destroy the Jets.

546
00:23:22,960 --> 00:23:25,600
Speaker 1: Who cares? It doesn't matter though, Man, I'm completely with you.

547
00:23:25,680 --> 00:23:28,160
Speaker 1: The Jets. No, they've won the game. They're not gonna

548
00:23:28,160 --> 00:23:31,320
Speaker 1: win another one, and Cleveland is too good anyway. Cleveland

549
00:23:31,359 --> 00:23:34,199
Speaker 1: is just a much much better team, and I have

550
00:23:34,240 --> 00:23:36,280
Speaker 1: faith if you're getting it under ten. Yeah, it was

551
00:23:36,320 --> 00:23:37,680
Speaker 1: one of my favorite picks on the week. I just

552
00:23:37,720 --> 00:23:39,880
Speaker 1: didn't lead with it because I figured that it would

553
00:23:39,920 --> 00:23:41,919
Speaker 1: be a safe pick that I could have later on.

554
00:23:42,040 --> 00:23:44,399
Speaker 1: So absolutely that one's in forget it. We don't even

555
00:23:44,440 --> 00:23:45,000
Speaker 1: need to debate it.

556
00:23:45,080 --> 00:23:48,359
Speaker 2: So okay, all right, And but that's the game theory.

557
00:23:48,119 --> 00:23:50,600
Speaker 1: By the way, you think that the Jets are going

558
00:23:50,680 --> 00:23:51,040
Speaker 1: to be the.

559
00:23:51,520 --> 00:23:54,680
Speaker 2: No, everyone's going to be on the Browns.

560
00:23:55,560 --> 00:23:57,159
Speaker 1: Oh, everyone is going to be on the Browns.

561
00:23:57,280 --> 00:23:59,240
Speaker 2: Yes, I think I think one of the most popular

562
00:23:59,280 --> 00:24:01,919
Speaker 2: picks is going to be Browns over the Jets. So

563
00:24:02,000 --> 00:24:04,280
Speaker 2: that's just if I'm with you on the play. But

564
00:24:04,320 --> 00:24:06,960
Speaker 2: if we're playing game theory, okay, the idea is either

565
00:24:06,960 --> 00:24:08,960
Speaker 2: do we want to run with the masses or do

566
00:24:09,040 --> 00:24:10,840
Speaker 2: we want to be contrary. I'm not saying we take

567
00:24:10,880 --> 00:24:13,159
Speaker 2: the Jets. I'm just saying we look for games that

568
00:24:13,200 --> 00:24:16,479
Speaker 2: people aren't going to play because you know, everyone's going

569
00:24:16,560 --> 00:24:18,680
Speaker 2: to be on the Browns. It's just going to be there.

570
00:24:18,880 --> 00:24:21,480
Speaker 1: You know. It's very interesting though, Matt. There are a

571
00:24:21,480 --> 00:24:23,200
Speaker 1: couple of things. Okay, let's talk about a couple things.

572
00:24:23,240 --> 00:24:26,880
Speaker 1: Number One, game theory works both ways, right, Like, other

573
00:24:26,920 --> 00:24:29,320
Speaker 1: people can also be having the game theory discussion that

574
00:24:29,359 --> 00:24:31,320
Speaker 1: you are having, right, and they could be like, let's

575
00:24:31,359 --> 00:24:33,639
Speaker 1: get smart and stuff like that. So it could definitely be.

576
00:24:33,840 --> 00:24:36,359
Speaker 1: But I do think that all year long that people

577
00:24:36,440 --> 00:24:39,879
Speaker 1: who have models and people who sort of look at

578
00:24:40,080 --> 00:24:43,160
Speaker 1: to find the value in the lines have consistently said,

579
00:24:43,320 --> 00:24:45,439
Speaker 1: I feel like there's value in the Jets lines, but

580
00:24:45,480 --> 00:24:48,080
Speaker 1: I can't take the Jets. I can't take the Jets

581
00:24:48,119 --> 00:24:50,960
Speaker 1: because even though my model says that the spread should

582
00:24:50,960 --> 00:24:53,840
Speaker 1: be three points closer, I can't take the Jets on this.

583
00:24:54,240 --> 00:24:57,359
Speaker 1: But maybe now you feel a little more comfortable taking

584
00:24:57,359 --> 00:24:59,159
Speaker 1: the Jets because they showed up the other thing. By

585
00:24:59,200 --> 00:25:02,240
Speaker 1: the ways, Quldn'tlliams like their best pass. He's out. He's

586
00:25:02,280 --> 00:25:04,440
Speaker 1: just been placed on IR as of twenty minutes ago,

587
00:25:04,640 --> 00:25:08,200
Speaker 1: so he's out for this game. They can't win, man, Like.

588
00:25:08,240 --> 00:25:10,040
Speaker 2: No, I'm with you here. The one thing that I'm

589
00:25:10,080 --> 00:25:12,760
Speaker 2: curious about because the way the DraftKings does it, so

590
00:25:12,840 --> 00:25:16,000
Speaker 2: we're talking about percentage, not wins.

591
00:25:16,200 --> 00:25:17,919
Speaker 1: Correct. Now, It's going to be the same thing though,

592
00:25:17,960 --> 00:25:20,119
Speaker 1: because everybody's going to have the same number of picks

593
00:25:20,359 --> 00:25:23,560
Speaker 1: at this point. Right now, the percentage matters a little

594
00:25:23,640 --> 00:25:26,800
Speaker 1: more because not everybody has picked the same number of games.

595
00:25:27,119 --> 00:25:30,000
Speaker 1: Oh right, okay, so some people have already have already

596
00:25:30,480 --> 00:25:32,400
Speaker 1: used picked all their games and they have to take

597
00:25:32,400 --> 00:25:33,320
Speaker 1: the bye week in.

598
00:25:33,280 --> 00:25:35,840
Speaker 2: This sixteen seventeen, so they're done exactly.

599
00:25:35,880 --> 00:25:38,159
Speaker 1: So that's why it's percentage at this point as opposed

600
00:25:38,200 --> 00:25:40,240
Speaker 1: to win. So in the end it's going to be wins.

601
00:25:40,280 --> 00:25:42,159
Speaker 1: And my guess is, so we are I believe I

602
00:25:42,200 --> 00:25:46,359
Speaker 1: said we were thirty six and twenty nine or whatever

603
00:25:46,359 --> 00:25:49,040
Speaker 1: it was, and so at best we would get forty

604
00:25:49,080 --> 00:25:50,880
Speaker 1: one out of sixty, which would be fifty eight point

605
00:25:50,960 --> 00:25:55,040
Speaker 1: six percent. And right now that I believe is cash.

606
00:25:55,080 --> 00:25:57,160
Speaker 1: So I don't know whether or not that's where it's

607
00:25:57,160 --> 00:25:58,960
Speaker 1: going to be, or or that might be one game

608
00:25:59,000 --> 00:26:00,800
Speaker 1: short or something. Forty one one out of sixty, but

609
00:26:00,840 --> 00:26:03,320
Speaker 1: that's gonna be right on the borderline of what we

610
00:26:03,359 --> 00:26:06,040
Speaker 1: need to be doing. So it's cool it's a percent

611
00:26:06,119 --> 00:26:07,720
Speaker 1: but it's really picks at that point.

612
00:26:07,880 --> 00:26:11,240
Speaker 2: Okay, So so it's still game theory. I mean, I

613
00:26:11,240 --> 00:26:12,280
Speaker 2: I think.

614
00:26:12,400 --> 00:26:14,080
Speaker 1: Although you could be by the way, if it's if

615
00:26:14,119 --> 00:26:16,879
Speaker 1: there's a push on a game obviously, right, so that

616
00:26:17,119 --> 00:26:19,800
Speaker 1: although every line is at half point, like, there's no

617
00:26:19,840 --> 00:26:20,320
Speaker 1: pushing this.

618
00:26:20,440 --> 00:26:22,920
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm guessing a Vello Johnny Vello and company made

619
00:26:22,920 --> 00:26:25,080
Speaker 2: sure that. So, I think, so you wouldn't have the

620
00:26:25,680 --> 00:26:27,760
Speaker 2: You're you're either gonna go five and oh or zero

621
00:26:27,760 --> 00:26:30,080
Speaker 2: and five. There's no you know, there's no three to

622
00:26:30,160 --> 00:26:32,440
Speaker 2: one and one going on here. You know. It's it's

623
00:26:32,520 --> 00:26:34,560
Speaker 2: it's trying to make sure you're either winning or losing

624
00:26:34,760 --> 00:26:39,240
Speaker 2: in week sixteen. I mean, I I think, you know,

625
00:26:39,280 --> 00:26:40,879
Speaker 2: the more that I think about it, the more that

626
00:26:40,920 --> 00:26:42,960
Speaker 2: I realized, like, if we have to go five and oh,

627
00:26:43,000 --> 00:26:45,160
Speaker 2: we kind of just have to pick five games we

628
00:26:45,160 --> 00:26:46,120
Speaker 2: were build the best.

629
00:26:46,080 --> 00:26:47,040
Speaker 1: That's where I'm at, Matt.

630
00:26:47,400 --> 00:26:48,520
Speaker 2: If I'm with you on that.

631
00:26:48,520 --> 00:26:51,640
Speaker 1: Now, if there's a high breaker, if there's a tigh breaker, right,

632
00:26:51,640 --> 00:26:53,959
Speaker 1: if we're like we like these four games, we've got

633
00:26:54,000 --> 00:26:56,119
Speaker 1: these two other games that we feel kind of equally

634
00:26:56,160 --> 00:26:58,080
Speaker 1: strong about, and one is kind of more of the

635
00:26:58,119 --> 00:27:01,000
Speaker 1: game theory contrarian play. I'm fine to that, But for

636
00:27:01,040 --> 00:27:02,639
Speaker 1: the most part, I'm not like you and I like

637
00:27:02,680 --> 00:27:04,920
Speaker 1: the Browns at nine and a half. I don't really

638
00:27:04,960 --> 00:27:06,439
Speaker 1: want to get off it, because I think it's going

639
00:27:06,520 --> 00:27:07,800
Speaker 1: to be like a play like we gotta go five

640
00:27:07,800 --> 00:27:09,320
Speaker 1: and zero one point by hook or by crunk.

641
00:27:09,520 --> 00:27:12,200
Speaker 2: So so yeah, all right, all right, I like it.

642
00:27:12,320 --> 00:27:15,000
Speaker 1: All right, So that was yours. So let me get

643
00:27:15,000 --> 00:27:18,160
Speaker 1: to mine. I've got how many more? I really only

644
00:27:18,160 --> 00:27:20,200
Speaker 1: have one or two more. I guess maybe this one's

645
00:27:20,600 --> 00:27:22,679
Speaker 1: what worries me about this one though, Matt is it's

646
00:27:22,720 --> 00:27:26,399
Speaker 1: an incredibly public play, Like the public is probably going

647
00:27:26,480 --> 00:27:28,439
Speaker 1: to be all over this because they have seen the

648
00:27:28,520 --> 00:27:33,040
Speaker 1: Steelers look like hot garbage for three weeks now. They

649
00:27:33,119 --> 00:27:36,840
Speaker 1: just got absolutely embarrassed on national TV. It's a spot

650
00:27:36,880 --> 00:27:40,000
Speaker 1: where ordinarily I would buy the Steelers, and I would

651
00:27:40,040 --> 00:27:42,560
Speaker 1: say this is Tomlin spot, right, I mean, this is

652
00:27:42,560 --> 00:27:45,080
Speaker 1: the Rara nobody believes in us whatever. I just don't

653
00:27:45,080 --> 00:27:47,000
Speaker 1: think they got the horses at this point. And I

654
00:27:47,000 --> 00:27:51,680
Speaker 1: think Indianapolis maybe not a dominant team, you know, maybe

655
00:27:51,680 --> 00:27:54,400
Speaker 1: not quite as strong as I thought, but their defense,

656
00:27:54,440 --> 00:27:58,240
Speaker 1: when healthy is absolutely legitimate. The Steelers have no running

657
00:27:58,240 --> 00:28:01,959
Speaker 1: game whatsoever. Everybody knows that Ben Is, whether he's actually

658
00:28:02,040 --> 00:28:04,720
Speaker 1: hurt or whatever, can't push the ball downfield. So they

659
00:28:04,720 --> 00:28:07,000
Speaker 1: are just crowding the line, saying you want to get

660
00:28:07,040 --> 00:28:09,919
Speaker 1: a seven yard completion. We are not like I'm not

661
00:28:10,000 --> 00:28:12,280
Speaker 1: backing off as a corner, not backing off anymore. I'm

662
00:28:12,280 --> 00:28:14,080
Speaker 1: not worried about being be deep because I know you

663
00:28:14,119 --> 00:28:16,680
Speaker 1: got to get the ball out in one point five seconds.

664
00:28:16,840 --> 00:28:19,000
Speaker 1: Indianapolis is a legit team. They need to keep winning here.

665
00:28:19,040 --> 00:28:20,879
Speaker 1: They've got a shot of the division, especially with the

666
00:28:20,920 --> 00:28:23,440
Speaker 1: Titans playing the Packers. So lay under a field goal.

667
00:28:23,440 --> 00:28:25,159
Speaker 1: I think they win the game. I'd be willing to

668
00:28:25,200 --> 00:28:27,240
Speaker 1: go with Indianapolis two and a half. It's just such

669
00:28:27,240 --> 00:28:29,359
Speaker 1: a public play, which is why I have trepidation about him.

670
00:28:29,359 --> 00:28:31,720
Speaker 2: What do you think it has a big black line

671
00:28:31,760 --> 00:28:32,080
Speaker 2: through it?

672
00:28:32,600 --> 00:28:34,919
Speaker 1: Oh? No way, because it's so public or what?

673
00:28:35,359 --> 00:28:38,640
Speaker 2: Just you can't touch the game? Okay, you just can't here.

674
00:28:38,680 --> 00:28:41,040
Speaker 2: There's a bunch of reasons why won I think James

675
00:28:41,080 --> 00:28:43,800
Speaker 2: Connor's playing. Okay, So I think we're going to have

676
00:28:43,840 --> 00:28:45,480
Speaker 2: a running game resurgency, Okay.

677
00:28:45,600 --> 00:28:47,240
Speaker 1: I want to make it clear. I think their running

678
00:28:47,280 --> 00:28:49,400
Speaker 1: game is worse with James Connor than with Benny Stump.

679
00:28:49,600 --> 00:28:52,320
Speaker 1: That's where I am legitimately on James Connor at this point.

680
00:28:52,400 --> 00:28:54,200
Speaker 1: Not that it matters, but go That's how I got

681
00:28:54,280 --> 00:28:55,680
Speaker 1: James Connor is irrelevant.

682
00:28:55,280 --> 00:28:56,840
Speaker 2: To me, but go okay, So I think Connor coming

683
00:28:56,880 --> 00:29:01,480
Speaker 2: back to Big, I think you have the you mentioned

684
00:29:01,520 --> 00:29:04,600
Speaker 2: the Tomlins spot. I mean this is it. I mean

685
00:29:04,640 --> 00:29:06,840
Speaker 2: they can if they win this game, they win the

686
00:29:06,880 --> 00:29:10,440
Speaker 2: division in Week seventeen, doesn't matter, they have a playoff

687
00:29:10,480 --> 00:29:14,360
Speaker 2: home game. I think you're gonna get every trick. I

688
00:29:14,400 --> 00:29:18,880
Speaker 2: think you're gonna get everything possible, and you're going I'm

689
00:29:18,880 --> 00:29:21,840
Speaker 2: banking on Philip Rivers in a Week sixteen spot, in

690
00:29:21,920 --> 00:29:24,960
Speaker 2: a super Bowl spot. I can't do it. I think

691
00:29:24,960 --> 00:29:27,240
Speaker 2: you're right. I think the right sides the Colts, but

692
00:29:27,320 --> 00:29:29,440
Speaker 2: I don't think we can risk it, knowing how much

693
00:29:29,480 --> 00:29:32,240
Speaker 2: we need five picks. We can't risk being wrong and

694
00:29:32,320 --> 00:29:35,360
Speaker 2: the Steelers getting right in winning a football game and

695
00:29:35,640 --> 00:29:38,000
Speaker 2: you know, winning it out right, and then we're laying

696
00:29:38,000 --> 00:29:39,560
Speaker 2: two and a half points here. If you were to

697
00:29:39,600 --> 00:29:42,800
Speaker 2: take the Steelers out go all right, maybe, but it

698
00:29:42,800 --> 00:29:46,360
Speaker 2: would feel you'd feel nervous about it. But I think

699
00:29:46,400 --> 00:29:49,360
Speaker 2: there's a legitimate chance that they saved their season in

700
00:29:49,480 --> 00:29:52,480
Speaker 2: this spot. I think big. I think Ben's arm, I

701
00:29:52,480 --> 00:29:55,680
Speaker 2: think his elbow is screwed up, and I think there's

702
00:29:55,720 --> 00:29:58,200
Speaker 2: no velocity two weeks ago against Buffalo was the first

703
00:29:58,240 --> 00:30:00,760
Speaker 2: time I started asking people in Vegas, like, what is

704
00:30:00,880 --> 00:30:03,480
Speaker 2: up with the arm? Yeah, and everybody said, there's nothing there.

705
00:30:03,600 --> 00:30:08,120
Speaker 2: It's there's just no punch. However, even with that said,

706
00:30:08,560 --> 00:30:11,200
Speaker 2: I think they know they're not going anywhere. They're gonna

707
00:30:11,240 --> 00:30:12,959
Speaker 2: lose in the first round of the playoffs. Yeah, mean,

708
00:30:13,040 --> 00:30:15,880
Speaker 2: they're just they're not a good football team. I can't

709
00:30:15,920 --> 00:30:18,160
Speaker 2: see them going eleven and oh and oh and five.

710
00:30:18,920 --> 00:30:22,320
Speaker 2: I just can't see it. They gotta beat somebody, and

711
00:30:22,320 --> 00:30:23,480
Speaker 2: this is the game they gotta have.

712
00:30:24,040 --> 00:30:26,880
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think all of that is right. And again,

713
00:30:27,240 --> 00:30:29,560
Speaker 1: I like everything when you look at sort of like

714
00:30:29,680 --> 00:30:33,280
Speaker 1: ah trends or what's the narrative everything, it's Steelers, right,

715
00:30:33,360 --> 00:30:35,960
Speaker 1: this is the spot for the Steelers. But again, this

716
00:30:36,000 --> 00:30:39,720
Speaker 1: is something where I now cannot back the Steelers, like

717
00:30:39,840 --> 00:30:42,320
Speaker 1: under any circumstances right now. But I'm fine. Again, it's

718
00:30:42,320 --> 00:30:43,560
Speaker 1: a game that I'm uncomfortable with.

719
00:30:43,600 --> 00:30:45,200
Speaker 2: I think you're on the right side. I got that.

720
00:30:45,280 --> 00:30:47,000
Speaker 2: I think the cults. I think cults on the right side.

721
00:30:47,040 --> 00:30:49,320
Speaker 2: I think it's it's the right bet, is the right pick.

722
00:30:50,040 --> 00:30:52,400
Speaker 2: It's just in this spot for us.

723
00:30:52,840 --> 00:30:53,360
Speaker 1: That's fine.

724
00:30:53,680 --> 00:30:56,720
Speaker 2: If we're wrong it's like, oh, man, did we just

725
00:30:56,800 --> 00:30:59,720
Speaker 2: lose money because we went against winning the spot that.

726
00:30:59,720 --> 00:31:02,120
Speaker 1: We act Philip Rivers And it's just you know, I

727
00:31:02,440 --> 00:31:04,920
Speaker 1: completely agree. It's it's just one that I'm like, ah,

728
00:31:05,080 --> 00:31:07,520
Speaker 1: this feels like the right side, but I still feel

729
00:31:07,560 --> 00:31:10,400
Speaker 1: uncomfortable with it. But again, I you're right at this

730
00:31:10,440 --> 00:31:13,120
Speaker 1: point because if the steel got the Steelers, could you

731
00:31:13,200 --> 00:31:19,200
Speaker 1: imagine going in having to beat the Browns next week

732
00:31:19,560 --> 00:31:20,760
Speaker 1: in Cleveland?

733
00:31:20,960 --> 00:31:21,160
Speaker 2: Yep?

734
00:31:21,400 --> 00:31:27,200
Speaker 1: To for that division like that? No, terrible. They can't

735
00:31:27,240 --> 00:31:28,760
Speaker 1: want to do that at this point on a four

736
00:31:28,800 --> 00:31:32,160
Speaker 1: game losing streak, So yeah, I know it. Just man,

737
00:31:32,440 --> 00:31:36,800
Speaker 1: that team with all the defensive injuries, with Bend, There's

738
00:31:36,800 --> 00:31:38,360
Speaker 1: no way I'm taking the Steelers. I would say that,

739
00:31:38,400 --> 00:31:40,120
Speaker 1: Like if you came in said Steelers, I would say,

740
00:31:40,120 --> 00:31:40,640
Speaker 1: absolutely not.

741
00:31:40,720 --> 00:31:43,320
Speaker 2: But I'm fine, No, I think the discuss is no play,

742
00:31:43,360 --> 00:31:44,840
Speaker 2: This is no place, time of the week.

743
00:31:44,960 --> 00:31:47,200
Speaker 1: I just don't think you can touch it all right,

744
00:31:47,440 --> 00:31:48,120
Speaker 1: anybody else?

745
00:31:48,440 --> 00:31:50,840
Speaker 2: Yeah, there's just one more play that I think. It's

746
00:31:50,880 --> 00:31:53,080
Speaker 2: a big number. So I understand if you don't want

747
00:31:53,080 --> 00:31:55,800
Speaker 2: to touch it. But I think the Giants offense is

748
00:31:55,840 --> 00:31:59,920
Speaker 2: done and I think the Ravens are getting into form here,

749
00:32:00,800 --> 00:32:03,120
Speaker 2: and I think they're gonna destroy New York. I think

750
00:32:03,160 --> 00:32:05,640
Speaker 2: it's the line's big, it's ten and a half, but

751
00:32:05,720 --> 00:32:07,880
Speaker 2: I think it's gonna be a complete and total. I

752
00:32:07,880 --> 00:32:09,560
Speaker 2: think the Ravens are gonna kill the Giants.

753
00:32:09,880 --> 00:32:12,160
Speaker 1: I don't care. I don't I don't hate it, So

754
00:32:12,280 --> 00:32:13,280
Speaker 1: keep going. I'm sorry, keep going.

755
00:32:13,360 --> 00:32:14,880
Speaker 2: Yeah, no, it is. I just in Baltimore ten and

756
00:32:14,920 --> 00:32:18,560
Speaker 2: a half. I think there's quarterback questions. Don't McCoy or

757
00:32:18,600 --> 00:32:21,280
Speaker 2: it's Jones, doesn't matter. I think the defense has been

758
00:32:21,280 --> 00:32:24,600
Speaker 2: figured out, and I think the Ravens are starting to

759
00:32:25,240 --> 00:32:28,800
Speaker 2: kind of do what good teams do. In December and okay,

760
00:32:28,840 --> 00:32:30,920
Speaker 2: we had our hiccup, we had our kind of our

761
00:32:30,960 --> 00:32:33,240
Speaker 2: our COVID problems and our issues, and we played in

762
00:32:33,280 --> 00:32:36,320
Speaker 2: weird times and weird days and everything got thrown off.

763
00:32:36,960 --> 00:32:39,480
Speaker 2: But I think Lamar Jackson is starting to come into

764
00:32:39,640 --> 00:32:42,280
Speaker 2: shape here, and I think these next two weeks are

765
00:32:42,280 --> 00:32:44,680
Speaker 2: gonna be the chance for the Ravens to kind of say, yeah,

766
00:32:44,800 --> 00:32:47,400
Speaker 2: you know, we're still in the conversation here for potentially

767
00:32:47,480 --> 00:32:49,240
Speaker 2: going to the super Bowl. You guys have slept on

768
00:32:49,320 --> 00:32:51,920
Speaker 2: us long enough, but here's what we just did to

769
00:32:52,040 --> 00:32:52,640
Speaker 2: the Giants.

770
00:32:53,120 --> 00:32:55,320
Speaker 1: Yeah, I really don't hate this at all. It was

771
00:32:55,360 --> 00:32:57,040
Speaker 1: on my list, but it was sort of like it's

772
00:32:57,120 --> 00:32:59,120
Speaker 1: just a weird number, you know, like it's a big

773
00:32:59,200 --> 00:33:02,320
Speaker 1: numbers as we were talking about. But I don't really

774
00:33:02,400 --> 00:33:05,080
Speaker 1: hate it because A I do think that the Ravens

775
00:33:05,080 --> 00:33:07,040
Speaker 1: have kind of been like, Okay, what are we doing?

776
00:33:07,240 --> 00:33:10,080
Speaker 1: Like what were we doing coming into this year? Like

777
00:33:10,160 --> 00:33:12,760
Speaker 1: I felt like we got too fancy almost a little

778
00:33:12,760 --> 00:33:15,720
Speaker 1: bit right, Like we didn't just want to do exactly

779
00:33:15,800 --> 00:33:18,920
Speaker 1: what we know we can do. Now they are, they're

780
00:33:18,960 --> 00:33:21,280
Speaker 1: playing well, they need to keep winning. They need to

781
00:33:21,320 --> 00:33:24,000
Speaker 1: basically went out. They've had the soft schedule here with

782
00:33:24,160 --> 00:33:26,680
Speaker 1: Jacksonville and then the Giants, then they've get Cincinnati, so

783
00:33:27,400 --> 00:33:30,600
Speaker 1: and again, what I love about Harbaugh is if he's

784
00:33:30,600 --> 00:33:33,600
Speaker 1: going to win a game, he doesn't care about it,

785
00:33:33,640 --> 00:33:37,320
Speaker 1: like he'll he'll you know, he's like the anti Chiefs

786
00:33:37,520 --> 00:33:40,000
Speaker 1: this year, right, he will. He will put his foot

787
00:33:40,080 --> 00:33:42,840
Speaker 1: on the neck and just say you're done. And I'm

788
00:33:42,840 --> 00:33:45,200
Speaker 1: putting up as many points as possible. So, yeah, I

789
00:33:45,200 --> 00:33:46,800
Speaker 1: don't hate it. I'll put it on. Let's put on

790
00:33:46,800 --> 00:33:48,240
Speaker 1: the maybe list. But it's like the head of the

791
00:33:48,280 --> 00:33:51,800
Speaker 1: maybe list for me for sure. Okay, very good. How

792
00:33:51,920 --> 00:33:54,760
Speaker 1: about So this is interesting, Matt, and it's your team,

793
00:33:54,840 --> 00:33:57,120
Speaker 1: so I want to ask you about it. At seven,

794
00:33:58,160 --> 00:34:01,520
Speaker 1: I was like, maybe the Bills, because I think the

795
00:34:01,600 --> 00:34:03,800
Speaker 1: I think the Bills at this point, Matt, are we

796
00:34:03,840 --> 00:34:07,160
Speaker 1: done fading the Bills at this point? They look they

797
00:34:07,160 --> 00:34:11,760
Speaker 1: look amazing, like they look really really incredible, especially offensive.

798
00:34:11,800 --> 00:34:12,600
Speaker 2: I'll give you that. Yeah.

799
00:34:12,680 --> 00:34:15,480
Speaker 1: The no Gilmore that it's seven and a half. I

800
00:34:15,520 --> 00:34:17,400
Speaker 1: don't you know when it's seven and a half, I

801
00:34:17,440 --> 00:34:18,919
Speaker 1: don't love well.

802
00:34:19,120 --> 00:34:21,439
Speaker 2: Yeah. The thing that bothers me is that Belichick tends

803
00:34:21,520 --> 00:34:25,360
Speaker 2: to take these games really personally now and he doesn't

804
00:34:25,480 --> 00:34:29,319
Speaker 2: he plays long term like some coaches are, like, I

805
00:34:29,360 --> 00:34:32,919
Speaker 2: need to win right now. Yeah, he doesn't care about

806
00:34:32,920 --> 00:34:34,800
Speaker 2: about that. But the fact that he held his press

807
00:34:34,800 --> 00:34:38,319
Speaker 2: conference this morning he wouldn't declare a starter. Yeah, and

808
00:34:38,840 --> 00:34:41,880
Speaker 2: is maybe gonna run out Stinham And maybe it is

809
00:34:41,920 --> 00:34:46,279
Speaker 2: Stinham playing and Cam not playing. I think they're a

810
00:34:46,280 --> 00:34:49,319
Speaker 2: better team with Jared Stinham at the quarterback spot. So

811
00:34:50,280 --> 00:34:53,959
Speaker 2: I don't know. I mean, I'm concerned that Belichick wants

812
00:34:53,960 --> 00:34:56,160
Speaker 2: to go eight and eight and he wants to have

813
00:34:56,160 --> 00:34:58,200
Speaker 2: have a you know, a five hundred record in the

814
00:34:58,200 --> 00:35:01,319
Speaker 2: middle of COVID and then you know, let history play

815
00:35:01,360 --> 00:35:04,440
Speaker 2: it out versus seven and nine and Brady winds up

816
00:35:04,440 --> 00:35:07,400
Speaker 2: going you know, ten and six or whatever. Yeah, I

817
00:35:07,920 --> 00:35:11,400
Speaker 2: don't know. It scares me. The hook matters. I couldn't

818
00:35:11,400 --> 00:35:14,479
Speaker 2: back the Patriots, but I think the Bills are gonna

819
00:35:14,480 --> 00:35:17,760
Speaker 2: win the game. But I could easily see my favorite quarterback,

820
00:35:17,840 --> 00:35:19,120
Speaker 2: Josh Allen have a rough day.

821
00:35:19,360 --> 00:35:24,920
Speaker 1: Yeah, I I I realistically think that the Bills are

822
00:35:24,920 --> 00:35:26,200
Speaker 1: going to destroy the pass.

823
00:35:26,080 --> 00:35:28,120
Speaker 2: And they want to. They're going in there.

824
00:35:28,840 --> 00:35:30,600
Speaker 1: I'm not gonna here's the thing. I mean, I'll put

825
00:35:30,640 --> 00:35:32,880
Speaker 1: on the maybe list, Matt, but unless you talk to

826
00:35:32,880 --> 00:35:35,360
Speaker 1: your people and they're like this line should be twelve

827
00:35:35,480 --> 00:35:37,759
Speaker 1: or whatever, I'm not gonna put it in because I'm

828
00:35:37,760 --> 00:35:41,440
Speaker 1: not gonna have us back the Bills against the Patriots

829
00:35:41,640 --> 00:35:44,880
Speaker 1: in our contest because I know your fade the Bills.

830
00:35:44,960 --> 00:35:49,480
Speaker 2: You know, well, it's just it's over seven and it's

831
00:35:49,520 --> 00:35:52,520
Speaker 2: a spot where the Patriots don't need to worry if

832
00:35:52,640 --> 00:35:54,359
Speaker 2: they can do whatever they want. I mean, they can

833
00:35:54,400 --> 00:35:58,280
Speaker 2: throw every trick defense, every trick play. I mean they can.

834
00:35:58,640 --> 00:36:00,760
Speaker 2: You know, there's nothing on the line for the Patriots.

835
00:36:00,800 --> 00:36:02,839
Speaker 2: It's just go out there and beat the Bills because

836
00:36:02,880 --> 00:36:05,480
Speaker 2: you don't want to lose two games to Buffalo, and

837
00:36:05,640 --> 00:36:08,560
Speaker 2: you know you've already lost the division to them, so

838
00:36:08,680 --> 00:36:10,640
Speaker 2: you know there's anger in that building already when it

839
00:36:10,640 --> 00:36:13,880
Speaker 2: comes to Buffalo. So if you win and you go

840
00:36:13,960 --> 00:36:15,879
Speaker 2: one and one, at least you beat them, at least

841
00:36:15,920 --> 00:36:17,560
Speaker 2: the team that won the division you beat them.

842
00:36:17,840 --> 00:36:20,920
Speaker 1: Yeah, you know all of this stuff, Like I get

843
00:36:21,040 --> 00:36:23,200
Speaker 1: all of that. I just think in the end, it

844
00:36:23,200 --> 00:36:25,200
Speaker 1: doesn't matter because he does not have the horses. The

845
00:36:25,239 --> 00:36:27,239
Speaker 1: same thing as the same thing as Pittsburgh right now.

846
00:36:27,440 --> 00:36:29,239
Speaker 1: The same thing is like he has never allowed the

847
00:36:29,320 --> 00:36:32,680
Speaker 1: rookie quarterbacks against Belichick. And maybe they they should have

848
00:36:32,760 --> 00:36:34,400
Speaker 1: covered or maybe they could have won that game, but

849
00:36:34,440 --> 00:36:37,479
Speaker 1: they didn't. And I think that especially without gilmore Man,

850
00:36:38,080 --> 00:36:40,680
Speaker 1: like you're gonna have double digs. I guess I don't

851
00:36:40,680 --> 00:36:42,839
Speaker 1: think it's necessarily gonna matter. And if it does, then

852
00:36:42,840 --> 00:36:45,360
Speaker 1: you're gonna have Cole Beasley have the big game, and

853
00:36:45,400 --> 00:36:47,120
Speaker 1: if not, then Josh Allen is gonna run all over.

854
00:36:47,160 --> 00:36:50,440
Speaker 2: Remember though J C. Jackson's mad he had eight picks

855
00:36:50,440 --> 00:36:51,439
Speaker 2: and did make the Pro Bowl.

856
00:36:51,560 --> 00:36:55,080
Speaker 1: All right, All that the narrative stuff though, for me

857
00:36:55,200 --> 00:36:57,239
Speaker 1: with this team doesn't matter because the narrative stuff has

858
00:36:57,280 --> 00:36:59,680
Speaker 1: kind of been blown out of the water. Like Belichick is,

859
00:37:00,080 --> 00:37:02,279
Speaker 1: if not the greatest coach of all time, then with

860
00:37:02,320 --> 00:37:04,279
Speaker 1: the top two or whatever like that. But if he

861
00:37:04,320 --> 00:37:05,880
Speaker 1: doesn't have the horses, he doesn't have the horses, and

862
00:37:05,920 --> 00:37:08,799
Speaker 1: you lost your best defensive player. Whoever, It's not like

863
00:37:09,080 --> 00:37:11,560
Speaker 1: maybe Jared Sidham is an upgrade over Cam Newton probably is.

864
00:37:12,160 --> 00:37:15,040
Speaker 1: What does that matter? You know, at this point, who cares?

865
00:37:15,120 --> 00:37:16,920
Speaker 1: It's not like that's not saying much. You might be

866
00:37:16,920 --> 00:37:18,279
Speaker 1: an upgrade over Cam Newton at this point.

867
00:37:18,480 --> 00:37:19,839
Speaker 2: I mean, Damien Harris maybe back.

868
00:37:20,040 --> 00:37:21,839
Speaker 1: I mean, it's fine. I don't I don't mind. I mean,

869
00:37:21,880 --> 00:37:25,160
Speaker 1: I'm I've sprinkled on it when at seven, which is

870
00:37:25,160 --> 00:37:26,840
Speaker 1: what it is, because I really think that it is

871
00:37:26,840 --> 00:37:28,880
Speaker 1: a game that Bills are gonna win by double digits

872
00:37:28,920 --> 00:37:31,000
Speaker 1: at this point. But I'm not I'm not pushing for

873
00:37:31,080 --> 00:37:33,239
Speaker 1: it in the contest because I do know a you've

874
00:37:33,239 --> 00:37:36,080
Speaker 1: been you know, kind of generally speaking, fading the Bills

875
00:37:36,160 --> 00:37:38,640
Speaker 1: all year, and number two, it's your team, so I

876
00:37:38,719 --> 00:37:41,960
Speaker 1: trust you know your insight into the team more than

877
00:37:42,040 --> 00:37:44,800
Speaker 1: my own. So I'm fine to put that on the maybe,

878
00:37:44,920 --> 00:37:46,640
Speaker 1: but it's much more of a if you talk to

879
00:37:46,680 --> 00:37:48,520
Speaker 1: your guys. And again, that's what I love about doing

880
00:37:48,560 --> 00:37:50,759
Speaker 1: this with you is that you will come in and

881
00:37:50,800 --> 00:37:53,000
Speaker 1: have a side while we do this, and then you'll

882
00:37:53,040 --> 00:37:54,759
Speaker 1: you'll talk to other people. You'll talk, you'll get as

883
00:37:54,800 --> 00:37:57,239
Speaker 1: much information as possible, and sometimes you'll switch. So if

884
00:37:57,280 --> 00:37:58,759
Speaker 1: you switch, i'd you want to put it in. But

885
00:37:58,800 --> 00:38:01,479
Speaker 1: for now, let's let's put it this. Any other team

886
00:38:01,560 --> 00:38:03,640
Speaker 1: that you're looking at this week that you like or

887
00:38:03,680 --> 00:38:05,160
Speaker 1: have a lean on. If not, we'll just go through

888
00:38:05,200 --> 00:38:06,480
Speaker 1: the rest of the game. Seat there. I mean.

889
00:38:06,520 --> 00:38:09,200
Speaker 2: The only other game that I've been kind of kicking

890
00:38:09,239 --> 00:38:11,480
Speaker 2: around in my head and I've kind of been like,

891
00:38:12,000 --> 00:38:14,919
Speaker 2: do I really want to go ahead and back them?

892
00:38:15,040 --> 00:38:18,160
Speaker 2: And I'm not entirely comfortable even, you know, coming out

893
00:38:18,200 --> 00:38:21,200
Speaker 2: and saying it is that I think the Titans might

894
00:38:21,200 --> 00:38:26,160
Speaker 2: beat the Packers. And I just I think because the Titans.

895
00:38:26,400 --> 00:38:29,120
Speaker 2: You mentioned the race, right, the Titans need this game.

896
00:38:29,520 --> 00:38:31,759
Speaker 2: They've got to keep pace, they've got to keep their lead.

897
00:38:31,840 --> 00:38:35,359
Speaker 2: I mean, I just I do the Packers really need

898
00:38:35,360 --> 00:38:35,920
Speaker 2: this game?

899
00:38:36,080 --> 00:38:39,359
Speaker 1: I mean, like, well that yeah, they need to buy right,

900
00:38:39,400 --> 00:38:40,080
Speaker 1: I mean they're.

901
00:38:40,040 --> 00:38:42,120
Speaker 2: Okay if yeah, if they want to buy. Okay, but

902
00:38:42,280 --> 00:38:44,279
Speaker 2: and I don't know how much teams really want. I mean, yes,

903
00:38:44,320 --> 00:38:47,360
Speaker 2: the buye would be nice, man, you need that buy Yeah, okay,

904
00:38:47,400 --> 00:38:50,040
Speaker 2: but I don't know. I just as I said, I'm

905
00:38:50,080 --> 00:38:51,759
Speaker 2: kind of like going back and forth, but like it

906
00:38:51,840 --> 00:38:53,600
Speaker 2: did jump when I was going through. It did kind

907
00:38:53,600 --> 00:38:56,919
Speaker 2: of jump off the table, off off the screen going. Man,

908
00:38:57,160 --> 00:38:59,480
Speaker 2: it's it's an interesting number. I'm getting three and a

909
00:38:59,520 --> 00:39:03,160
Speaker 2: half on the Titans against the Packers. Can. I mean

910
00:39:03,160 --> 00:39:06,080
Speaker 2: they play cold weather football. That's what they do, right,

911
00:39:06,120 --> 00:39:08,480
Speaker 2: I mean they ultimately in the NFL, they are the

912
00:39:08,520 --> 00:39:10,239
Speaker 2: cold weather team in a lot of ways, where they

913
00:39:10,280 --> 00:39:11,920
Speaker 2: can just line up and run the ball at you

914
00:39:12,280 --> 00:39:15,720
Speaker 2: and I and the Packers have such a horrific run defense.

915
00:39:15,760 --> 00:39:18,960
Speaker 2: Look what happened against the Vikings. Yeah, I mean it

916
00:39:19,000 --> 00:39:22,399
Speaker 2: was I mean all Dalvin Cook all day. So do

917
00:39:22,440 --> 00:39:24,640
Speaker 2: they make the mistake of playing six D b's again,

918
00:39:24,719 --> 00:39:28,120
Speaker 2: Probably not, But you do have good receivers that they

919
00:39:28,160 --> 00:39:29,880
Speaker 2: could be worried about in the same way they were

920
00:39:29,920 --> 00:39:32,840
Speaker 2: worried about stopping feeling for the Vikings, you know, stopping

921
00:39:32,880 --> 00:39:35,399
Speaker 2: AJ Browns Corey Davis on a monster game last week.

922
00:39:35,440 --> 00:39:38,239
Speaker 2: As you had in your projections when one of your

923
00:39:38,239 --> 00:39:40,799
Speaker 2: props was Corey Davis. I just think that hook at

924
00:39:40,800 --> 00:39:42,240
Speaker 2: three and a half looks interesting.

925
00:39:42,600 --> 00:39:45,279
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's an interesting one. I think the Titans are

926
00:39:45,320 --> 00:39:49,439
Speaker 1: probably the right side because I don't see this as

927
00:39:49,480 --> 00:39:51,960
Speaker 1: a game that the Packers. It's gonna be cold, you know,

928
00:39:52,000 --> 00:39:53,640
Speaker 1: it's gonna be really cold. I don't see this as

929
00:39:53,640 --> 00:39:58,160
Speaker 1: a monstrous, explosive offensive day necessarily for the Packers. And

930
00:39:58,440 --> 00:40:01,600
Speaker 1: the Packers are as vulnerable against the run as you

931
00:40:01,600 --> 00:40:03,760
Speaker 1: know pretty much any other team, and in a cold

932
00:40:04,000 --> 00:40:06,480
Speaker 1: sort of scenario, you can give Derrick Henry the ball

933
00:40:06,560 --> 00:40:08,719
Speaker 1: thirty five times and you're gonna be able to put

934
00:40:08,760 --> 00:40:12,040
Speaker 1: up points and keep the game close and everything like that.

935
00:40:12,160 --> 00:40:14,560
Speaker 1: I don't hate it. I you know, I don't love

936
00:40:14,560 --> 00:40:16,960
Speaker 1: it because I just I don't have a great feel

937
00:40:17,000 --> 00:40:19,000
Speaker 1: for this game. And I think I'm still scarred a

938
00:40:19,000 --> 00:40:22,040
Speaker 1: little bit by the game that you had so perfectly nailed,

939
00:40:22,040 --> 00:40:26,120
Speaker 1: which was that Browns game where the Browns destroyed the Titans,

940
00:40:26,200 --> 00:40:29,600
Speaker 1: absolutely destroyed them. Makes me a little nervous here as

941
00:40:29,640 --> 00:40:31,600
Speaker 1: to what are we going to see when the Titans

942
00:40:31,800 --> 00:40:34,960
Speaker 1: face a real team with that, like a real offense

943
00:40:35,120 --> 00:40:37,920
Speaker 1: like the Packers. But I'll put it on the maybe list.

944
00:40:37,360 --> 00:40:39,239
Speaker 1: I don't hate it. I don't hate it, and I

945
00:40:39,239 --> 00:40:41,359
Speaker 1: do think that's the right side with the hook, So

946
00:40:42,040 --> 00:40:44,719
Speaker 1: I'll do that all right. Let's go through the rest

947
00:40:44,719 --> 00:40:46,840
Speaker 1: of the games here. I mean, I have a couple

948
00:40:46,840 --> 00:40:50,200
Speaker 1: of couple of mynor thoughts. Let's start with the Let

949
00:40:50,200 --> 00:40:52,560
Speaker 1: me just make sure I haven't missed any Nope, I've

950
00:40:52,560 --> 00:40:56,920
Speaker 1: gone through all those. How about the Bucks slaying nine

951
00:40:56,960 --> 00:40:59,280
Speaker 1: and a half to the Lions in Detroit?

952
00:41:00,480 --> 00:41:03,279
Speaker 2: What do you make of that team in Tampa? Like,

953
00:41:03,360 --> 00:41:05,760
Speaker 2: what do you make of these guys? I just don't

954
00:41:06,080 --> 00:41:10,279
Speaker 2: like their offense. I just I mean, I teased them

955
00:41:10,320 --> 00:41:13,279
Speaker 2: down last week, so I got it right. But they

956
00:41:13,280 --> 00:41:16,120
Speaker 2: were down big to the Falcons. I mean, they had

957
00:41:16,120 --> 00:41:18,239
Speaker 2: to come all the way back on the road. Their

958
00:41:18,239 --> 00:41:21,560
Speaker 2: second half was totally different than their first half, and

959
00:41:23,040 --> 00:41:25,759
Speaker 2: they I thought that they would go into the buy,

960
00:41:26,600 --> 00:41:29,560
Speaker 2: change things up, have a new offense, come out of

961
00:41:29,560 --> 00:41:31,360
Speaker 2: the bye week and be you know, a dink and

962
00:41:31,480 --> 00:41:33,839
Speaker 2: dunk team like Brady wants to be. Now, they did

963
00:41:34,080 --> 00:41:36,440
Speaker 2: make Scotty Miller a bigger part of the offense, so

964
00:41:36,560 --> 00:41:39,520
Speaker 2: that's important. So I'm glad to see that. But they've

965
00:41:39,520 --> 00:41:43,239
Speaker 2: got him running fly patterns. He's not running slants, he's

966
00:41:43,320 --> 00:41:46,160
Speaker 2: running go routes. So, like, I don't know what to

967
00:41:46,200 --> 00:41:48,239
Speaker 2: make of this Bucks team. I need them to win

968
00:41:48,280 --> 00:41:51,399
Speaker 2: it because I've got them to win ten games, so

969
00:41:51,560 --> 00:41:53,359
Speaker 2: I have a bet on them to win ten games.

970
00:41:53,360 --> 00:41:57,120
Speaker 2: So I needed to win this game year today. But man,

971
00:41:57,239 --> 00:42:00,320
Speaker 2: I just yikes, it's tough to get behind them.

972
00:42:00,600 --> 00:42:04,799
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think, you know, probably you know, not to

973
00:42:04,880 --> 00:42:07,280
Speaker 1: make any excuses for them, because that was a pretty

974
00:42:08,080 --> 00:42:11,720
Speaker 1: pretty dismal effort. But I think, you know, Ronald Jones,

975
00:42:11,719 --> 00:42:13,640
Speaker 1: to me, especially in the passing game, is just an

976
00:42:13,760 --> 00:42:16,759
Speaker 1: upgrade over Leonard Fournette. So I think probably the you know,

977
00:42:16,800 --> 00:42:19,000
Speaker 1: the running back out of the backfield made a difference.

978
00:42:19,120 --> 00:42:21,120
Speaker 1: I don't think Ronald Jones is supposed to play in

979
00:42:21,160 --> 00:42:23,640
Speaker 1: this game. I think there's right, there's doubt, so you've

980
00:42:23,680 --> 00:42:25,919
Speaker 1: got that. It's just a first of all, I don't

981
00:42:25,960 --> 00:42:28,120
Speaker 1: know for sure that Stafford is playing in this game, right,

982
00:42:28,239 --> 00:42:30,759
Speaker 1: Stafford is basically good, you know, kudos to the guy

983
00:42:30,800 --> 00:42:32,960
Speaker 1: who's as tough as they come playing through it. But

984
00:42:33,200 --> 00:42:34,959
Speaker 1: you know, Gallave is still going to be out. Of course,

985
00:42:34,960 --> 00:42:38,600
Speaker 1: if it's Chase Daniel, everything to me says like if

986
00:42:38,600 --> 00:42:40,000
Speaker 1: I have to pick a side. I'm going with the

987
00:42:40,000 --> 00:42:42,640
Speaker 1: Bucks under double digits, Like, I will take that because again,

988
00:42:43,160 --> 00:42:45,840
Speaker 1: you can do whatever you want against Detroit, you know,

989
00:42:45,920 --> 00:42:49,120
Speaker 1: from an offensive standpoint. I mean, you've got the three receivers,

990
00:42:49,160 --> 00:42:50,840
Speaker 1: You've still got goronk, you can run the ball. They

991
00:42:50,880 --> 00:42:52,680
Speaker 1: should be able to do whatever they want. So I

992
00:42:52,719 --> 00:42:54,560
Speaker 1: do think that the Bucks are probably the right side.

993
00:42:54,560 --> 00:42:57,200
Speaker 1: But yeah, you watch them and the way they came

994
00:42:57,200 --> 00:43:00,480
Speaker 1: out against Atlanta. That was just an abysmal game. So

995
00:43:00,640 --> 00:43:01,200
Speaker 1: I think that's not.

996
00:43:01,160 --> 00:43:02,759
Speaker 2: How much you know what's funny. I don't know how

997
00:43:02,840 --> 00:43:07,239
Speaker 2: much fun Brady's having. Yeah, watching him on the sidelines,

998
00:43:07,320 --> 00:43:10,000
Speaker 2: this is when Brady normally gets to be Brady. Right

999
00:43:10,040 --> 00:43:12,840
Speaker 2: in December is when he starts to really like to

1000
00:43:13,239 --> 00:43:15,560
Speaker 2: you start to feel it. You watch him and you're like, man,

1001
00:43:15,600 --> 00:43:18,280
Speaker 2: you watch the confidence, and you watch him he cares himself.

1002
00:43:18,520 --> 00:43:21,359
Speaker 2: You watch the swag come out of Brady. It never

1003
00:43:21,400 --> 00:43:24,719
Speaker 2: really happens until December and the postseason, right, and I

1004
00:43:24,719 --> 00:43:26,640
Speaker 2: don't see it out of him. I see a lot

1005
00:43:26,680 --> 00:43:29,520
Speaker 2: of frustration. I see a lot of concern. I see

1006
00:43:29,520 --> 00:43:33,160
Speaker 2: a lot of distrepidation in almost you know, being annoyed

1007
00:43:33,520 --> 00:43:35,920
Speaker 2: at what's happening, and I think he knows they're not

1008
00:43:36,040 --> 00:43:37,200
Speaker 2: that good of a football team.

1009
00:43:37,360 --> 00:43:39,520
Speaker 1: Yeah, they're not that good of a football team.

1010
00:43:39,520 --> 00:43:39,640
Speaker 2: Now.

1011
00:43:39,640 --> 00:43:42,440
Speaker 1: I'm not even saying that they don't have a chance

1012
00:43:43,000 --> 00:43:45,600
Speaker 1: to get to the super Bowl because they could get

1013
00:43:45,600 --> 00:43:48,120
Speaker 1: on a run. They have horses, they have a strong defense.

1014
00:43:48,120 --> 00:43:49,920
Speaker 1: They're just not playing very well at the moment, and

1015
00:43:50,000 --> 00:43:52,359
Speaker 1: I think it is frustrating. Brady is not playing very

1016
00:43:52,360 --> 00:43:54,640
Speaker 1: well at the moment either, so it's frustrating for them.

1017
00:43:54,640 --> 00:43:56,640
Speaker 1: But yeah, I think they're the right side at nine

1018
00:43:56,640 --> 00:43:59,680
Speaker 1: and a half. But I'm not really I'm not. I'm

1019
00:43:59,719 --> 00:44:02,240
Speaker 1: not to put it in the contest by anyway, Eagles

1020
00:44:02,320 --> 00:44:04,440
Speaker 1: laying two and a half to the Cowboys in Dallas.

1021
00:44:05,080 --> 00:44:06,680
Speaker 2: If I was going to bet it, it's the Eagles

1022
00:44:06,680 --> 00:44:08,640
Speaker 2: because I was on Jalen Hurts last week at plus

1023
00:44:08,719 --> 00:44:10,120
Speaker 2: six and it was a brutal loss.

1024
00:44:10,200 --> 00:44:12,920
Speaker 1: Oh, I know, just a brutal I was there too.

1025
00:44:13,120 --> 00:44:17,520
Speaker 2: That was that was just horrid. But I think Jalen

1026
00:44:17,600 --> 00:44:19,759
Speaker 2: Hurts is something I really do and I just did

1027
00:44:19,880 --> 00:44:21,799
Speaker 2: the only reason why I'm not backing it is I

1028
00:44:21,800 --> 00:44:23,759
Speaker 2: don't think the Eagles is a football team or that good.

1029
00:44:24,000 --> 00:44:25,600
Speaker 1: I think they're going to be such a public play

1030
00:44:25,719 --> 00:44:27,799
Speaker 1: I think right, because Hurts is like the type of

1031
00:44:27,800 --> 00:44:29,920
Speaker 1: play that you're like, oh my gosh, I got to

1032
00:44:29,960 --> 00:44:32,359
Speaker 1: back this guy under a field goal. The Cowboys are

1033
00:44:32,400 --> 00:44:34,640
Speaker 1: not as bad as I think people make them out

1034
00:44:34,800 --> 00:44:36,920
Speaker 1: to be. Their defense playing a little bit better. So

1035
00:44:37,600 --> 00:44:39,560
Speaker 1: I do like the Eagles as well, but I think

1036
00:44:39,600 --> 00:44:41,799
Speaker 1: that the public nature of it and the team just

1037
00:44:41,880 --> 00:44:44,680
Speaker 1: generally speaking pushes me off it a little bit. So

1038
00:44:45,120 --> 00:44:46,440
Speaker 1: it's a game that I do think that if I

1039
00:44:46,440 --> 00:44:48,160
Speaker 1: had to bet, it would be the Eagles, but not there.

1040
00:44:48,320 --> 00:44:50,279
Speaker 1: So this is interesting. What do you think? This is

1041
00:44:50,320 --> 00:44:53,360
Speaker 1: the Christmas Game? I believe the Saints lank seven and

1042
00:44:53,360 --> 00:44:55,560
Speaker 1: a half to the Vikings in New Orleans.

1043
00:44:55,680 --> 00:44:58,000
Speaker 2: Hate the hook, Yeah, looked at it. Hate the seven

1044
00:44:58,040 --> 00:45:00,000
Speaker 2: and a half. Six and a half would be all

1045
00:45:00,040 --> 00:45:03,560
Speaker 2: over New Orleans. Yeah, seven and a half. Yeah, that's

1046
00:45:03,640 --> 00:45:05,240
Speaker 2: that's my concern. Back door.

1047
00:45:06,040 --> 00:45:07,919
Speaker 1: Oh if I if I had to go somewhere, I'd

1048
00:45:08,000 --> 00:45:10,759
Speaker 1: go with the Vikings at seven a half. I don't

1049
00:45:10,760 --> 00:45:11,120
Speaker 1: want it.

1050
00:45:11,320 --> 00:45:13,719
Speaker 2: I like, yeah, the Vikings have the Vikings have now

1051
00:45:13,840 --> 00:45:17,200
Speaker 2: entered the put the black line through them of betting.

1052
00:45:17,200 --> 00:45:19,080
Speaker 2: For me, I am not backing the Vikings after what

1053
00:45:19,120 --> 00:45:20,759
Speaker 2: happened last week. I was not to play of the week.

1054
00:45:21,800 --> 00:45:23,840
Speaker 2: I was all in that. I thought I had that

1055
00:45:23,920 --> 00:45:28,520
Speaker 2: game perfectly correct, and they made they made Trubitsky look

1056
00:45:28,560 --> 00:45:32,279
Speaker 2: good again. And I just don't understand Dalvin Cook didn't

1057
00:45:32,320 --> 00:45:33,640
Speaker 2: run as hard as I thought he was going to,

1058
00:45:34,040 --> 00:45:36,600
Speaker 2: and that team when they get down, they don't know

1059
00:45:36,600 --> 00:45:39,120
Speaker 2: how to come from behind. Like you go up seven, nothing,

1060
00:45:39,160 --> 00:45:41,520
Speaker 2: you go up ten, nothing, it's almost over. Like it's

1061
00:45:41,560 --> 00:45:43,520
Speaker 2: just they just don't come back on anybody.

1062
00:45:43,719 --> 00:45:47,440
Speaker 1: Yep. Yeah, I think having a black line through them

1063
00:45:47,560 --> 00:45:49,839
Speaker 1: is the perfect way to put them, because, yeah, I

1064
00:45:49,840 --> 00:45:51,520
Speaker 1: think there's probably value on them at seven and a half.

1065
00:45:51,520 --> 00:45:52,880
Speaker 1: There's no way I'm backing them, But I don't know

1066
00:45:52,880 --> 00:45:54,719
Speaker 1: what I'm going to see from them week to week

1067
00:45:54,960 --> 00:45:57,640
Speaker 1: at all. So yeah, I agree, let's stay away wonderful

1068
00:45:57,760 --> 00:46:00,239
Speaker 1: Cardinals laying your favorite number five and a half the

1069
00:46:00,280 --> 00:46:01,919
Speaker 1: forty nine ers in Arizona.

1070
00:46:02,040 --> 00:46:04,839
Speaker 2: If I had to back it, I would take San Francisco. Yeah,

1071
00:46:04,920 --> 00:46:07,800
Speaker 2: but I don't like it because I don't like backing

1072
00:46:07,880 --> 00:46:08,640
Speaker 2: Nick Mullins.

1073
00:46:08,680 --> 00:46:10,320
Speaker 1: And it's not Nick Mullins.

1074
00:46:10,560 --> 00:46:12,239
Speaker 2: Oh, it's it's even worse. C J.

1075
00:46:12,360 --> 00:46:16,240
Speaker 1: Bether Now, Yeah, yeah, Mullins Mullins needs Tommy John surgery.

1076
00:46:16,239 --> 00:46:17,680
Speaker 1: I think actually, yeah, it's even worse.

1077
00:46:17,800 --> 00:46:20,200
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's right CD. But third yeah, yeah, because he

1078
00:46:20,320 --> 00:46:22,279
Speaker 2: came out of that game and his elbow was funk.

1079
00:46:23,000 --> 00:46:25,279
Speaker 2: It was funky, and he was like, it's really bad. Yeah,

1080
00:46:25,360 --> 00:46:26,480
Speaker 2: yeah it was. It didn't look good.

1081
00:46:28,160 --> 00:46:30,040
Speaker 1: That's the possibility.

1082
00:46:30,440 --> 00:46:32,720
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, I just think running the football against

1083
00:46:32,760 --> 00:46:35,000
Speaker 2: the Cardinals is how you beat them. Yeah, and I

1084
00:46:35,040 --> 00:46:36,560
Speaker 2: think most of it should play right.

1085
00:46:36,680 --> 00:46:39,400
Speaker 1: No, he's out, he's on. I R now my friend

1086
00:46:39,880 --> 00:46:42,520
Speaker 1: is done. You've got Jeff Wilson and uh, you know,

1087
00:46:42,680 --> 00:46:45,799
Speaker 1: I guess Jerick McKinnon, maybe Tevin Coleman, who's also banged up.

1088
00:46:46,120 --> 00:46:49,160
Speaker 1: You've got Jeff Wilson, and you've got maybe George Kittle,

1089
00:46:49,239 --> 00:46:51,759
Speaker 1: and you've got Brandon Ayuk and that's it.

1090
00:46:54,560 --> 00:46:56,160
Speaker 2: Yeah. Maybe he just sucked me into the Cardinals.

1091
00:46:56,960 --> 00:46:58,160
Speaker 1: It can't be. It's five and a half.

1092
00:46:58,120 --> 00:47:00,480
Speaker 2: It's no. I wouldn't touch it. I'm not this game,

1093
00:47:00,920 --> 00:47:03,400
Speaker 2: absolutely not. I I don't like. I mean, the Cardinals

1094
00:47:03,400 --> 00:47:06,919
Speaker 2: aren't are a team. In terms of coaching, I think

1095
00:47:06,960 --> 00:47:10,759
Speaker 2: Cliff Kingsbury hasn't adapted nearly enough as he should have.

1096
00:47:11,760 --> 00:47:13,880
Speaker 2: He's had his system in place. And they run the

1097
00:47:13,920 --> 00:47:16,160
Speaker 2: same thing every week. Yeah, and like some weeks it works,

1098
00:47:16,280 --> 00:47:18,640
Speaker 2: in some weeks it doesn't. And it's it's if I

1099
00:47:18,680 --> 00:47:21,080
Speaker 2: was a Cardinal fan, I'd be concerned about that. That

1100
00:47:21,160 --> 00:47:22,960
Speaker 2: he seems like he's a one trick pony. And if

1101
00:47:23,040 --> 00:47:27,080
Speaker 2: Murray's not doing magic with his feet, they can't win. Yeah,

1102
00:47:27,080 --> 00:47:28,799
Speaker 2: Like they need him to run the football and pick

1103
00:47:28,880 --> 00:47:32,400
Speaker 2: up first downs. And then Hopkins last week was incredible.

1104
00:47:32,719 --> 00:47:36,440
Speaker 2: He was just amazed, absolutely incredible against the Eagles. So

1105
00:47:36,640 --> 00:47:38,680
Speaker 2: I mean, you have a guy like that making incredible

1106
00:47:38,680 --> 00:47:41,160
Speaker 2: catches and plays and touchdown catches that shouldn't be made,

1107
00:47:41,160 --> 00:47:45,360
Speaker 2: and okay, fine, that's how you win games. But I yeah,

1108
00:47:45,400 --> 00:47:47,440
Speaker 2: it's too it's too many unknowns for me.

1109
00:47:47,760 --> 00:47:50,120
Speaker 1: I don't like it. I just don't. I really don't.

1110
00:47:50,160 --> 00:47:52,960
Speaker 1: I don't have faith in the Cardinals yet. And the

1111
00:47:53,000 --> 00:47:55,120
Speaker 1: forty nine ers has beat up as they are, their

1112
00:47:55,120 --> 00:47:58,840
Speaker 1: defense is you know still you know, as healthy essentially

1113
00:47:58,880 --> 00:48:00,920
Speaker 1: as it's been, you know, and there they'll put up

1114
00:48:00,920 --> 00:48:03,480
Speaker 1: a fight, and I just I don't want to touch it.

1115
00:48:03,520 --> 00:48:06,480
Speaker 1: I'm with you. So how about the growth? I mean,

1116
00:48:06,520 --> 00:48:08,680
Speaker 1: you can't want this game either side. Texans laying eight

1117
00:48:08,680 --> 00:48:09,839
Speaker 1: and a half to the Bengals, and.

1118
00:48:10,239 --> 00:48:12,680
Speaker 2: There's no way. It's just I won't watch it. It's

1119
00:48:12,719 --> 00:48:13,600
Speaker 2: no we're talking.

1120
00:48:13,400 --> 00:48:17,520
Speaker 1: About the completely away. If you're betting that game, stop

1121
00:48:17,560 --> 00:48:19,640
Speaker 1: listening that. I'm just kidding to listen to the podcast.

1122
00:48:19,640 --> 00:48:21,719
Speaker 1: But yeah, neither. I don't want any part of it,

1123
00:48:21,760 --> 00:48:24,080
Speaker 1: no matter what, Chargers laying three and a half to

1124
00:48:24,120 --> 00:48:26,200
Speaker 1: the Broncos in Los Angeles.

1125
00:48:26,400 --> 00:48:28,160
Speaker 2: Look, look that this is this is one of those

1126
00:48:28,200 --> 00:48:31,640
Speaker 2: games where if we were gonna play game theory, Okay,

1127
00:48:32,040 --> 00:48:34,160
Speaker 2: no one's gonna pick this game. This game will be

1128
00:48:34,200 --> 00:48:37,399
Speaker 2: on like five percent of the picks. No one's gonna

1129
00:48:37,400 --> 00:48:39,840
Speaker 2: go near it. You take the Chargers at home against

1130
00:48:39,880 --> 00:48:43,440
Speaker 2: the Broncos, and you hope that they they play hard,

1131
00:48:43,719 --> 00:48:46,040
Speaker 2: and you hope that Herbert goes back to where he

1132
00:48:46,200 --> 00:48:48,080
Speaker 2: was because he wants to win the Offensive Rookie of

1133
00:48:48,080 --> 00:48:50,360
Speaker 2: the Year award, so he wants to put up big numbers.

1134
00:48:50,960 --> 00:48:52,960
Speaker 2: If we played game theory, it would be Chargers.

1135
00:48:52,960 --> 00:48:56,000
Speaker 1: In my mind, Yeah, I think that that's right. I

1136
00:48:56,040 --> 00:48:58,439
Speaker 1: don't want to play it though, there's no way, there's

1137
00:48:58,440 --> 00:48:59,840
Speaker 1: no way, get out of my get out of my

1138
00:49:00,200 --> 00:49:03,320
Speaker 1: I don't want that. Yeah, it's gross, it is gross.

1139
00:49:03,360 --> 00:49:05,480
Speaker 1: I don't I just don't want to touch it. It's

1140
00:49:05,520 --> 00:49:07,560
Speaker 1: not a I don't feel comfortable back in the Chargers.

1141
00:49:07,600 --> 00:49:09,440
Speaker 1: I don't feel comfortable back in the Broncos. I don't

1142
00:49:09,480 --> 00:49:11,520
Speaker 1: feel comfortable at all. Washington laying two and a half

1143
00:49:11,560 --> 00:49:12,880
Speaker 1: to the Panthers in Washington.

1144
00:49:14,040 --> 00:49:17,000
Speaker 2: So this is the revenge game, right, And if you

1145
00:49:17,040 --> 00:49:20,800
Speaker 2: believe in revenge games, you would take Washington here. It's

1146
00:49:21,480 --> 00:49:24,760
Speaker 2: it's hard to do so, just given where their offense

1147
00:49:24,840 --> 00:49:28,080
Speaker 2: is right now. And I mean you.

1148
00:49:28,000 --> 00:49:29,480
Speaker 1: Don't even know who's gonna be playing, correct.

1149
00:49:29,600 --> 00:49:32,240
Speaker 2: The Dwayne Haskins going to do a strip club story

1150
00:49:32,320 --> 00:49:35,640
Speaker 2: is pretty significant, yeah, And I mean Gibson's not gonna play.

1151
00:49:36,160 --> 00:49:36,680
Speaker 1: I doubt it.

1152
00:49:37,160 --> 00:49:39,960
Speaker 2: So, I mean, I don't know how you back Washington,

1153
00:49:40,000 --> 00:49:42,200
Speaker 2: but you would I would back Washington if I was

1154
00:49:42,200 --> 00:49:43,120
Speaker 2: going to back anybody.

1155
00:49:43,320 --> 00:49:45,879
Speaker 1: Yeah, I agree with that, like Washington would be. This one,

1156
00:49:45,920 --> 00:49:49,719
Speaker 1: by the way, is a legitimately, so you know the

1157
00:49:49,760 --> 00:49:51,080
Speaker 1: bet on the lines or I look and you can

1158
00:49:51,120 --> 00:49:54,160
Speaker 1: see generally speaking, you know the percentage of people who

1159
00:49:54,160 --> 00:49:56,160
Speaker 1: put in picks where they are on a side. Not

1160
00:49:56,280 --> 00:49:58,880
Speaker 1: a single person has put in a pick yet for

1161
00:49:59,000 --> 00:50:00,759
Speaker 1: this game. And I guess that's probably because of the

1162
00:50:00,960 --> 00:50:04,160
Speaker 1: quarterback situation, right, But it's just not a game that

1163
00:50:04,360 --> 00:50:07,560
Speaker 1: i'd want to go near because either way, I just don't.

1164
00:50:07,960 --> 00:50:11,319
Speaker 1: It's just Washington has a legitimate defense. If I knew

1165
00:50:11,320 --> 00:50:15,239
Speaker 1: Alex Smith was starting, maybe maybe I'd feel comfortable with them.

1166
00:50:15,239 --> 00:50:17,759
Speaker 1: But for now, let's stay away.

1167
00:50:17,520 --> 00:50:19,080
Speaker 2: Because this comes on Sunday, right.

1168
00:50:19,520 --> 00:50:20,680
Speaker 1: Yes, this game's on Sunday.

1169
00:50:20,840 --> 00:50:22,600
Speaker 2: So I mean like this could be one of those

1170
00:50:22,600 --> 00:50:25,919
Speaker 2: games by the time we get to the Sunday morning, yep,

1171
00:50:26,440 --> 00:50:28,360
Speaker 2: that the number has shifted so much that there's like

1172
00:50:28,360 --> 00:50:31,200
Speaker 2: an incredible value on Washington because this thing popped up.

1173
00:50:31,280 --> 00:50:32,560
Speaker 2: You know, we had to put these lines out on

1174
00:50:32,600 --> 00:50:34,160
Speaker 2: Wednesday before we knew.

1175
00:50:34,520 --> 00:50:37,359
Speaker 1: So if haskins, I'd be a game theory one though, Matt, Like,

1176
00:50:37,520 --> 00:50:39,640
Speaker 1: that's where I could see game theory going, like the

1177
00:50:39,719 --> 00:50:42,759
Speaker 1: Steelers this weekend. Right that line came out, I think

1178
00:50:42,840 --> 00:50:45,400
Speaker 1: before you knew that Ryan Finley was going to be

1179
00:50:45,440 --> 00:50:48,560
Speaker 1: the starter. Right on the line. I think ballooned after

1180
00:50:48,600 --> 00:50:50,920
Speaker 1: that for Ryan Finley to be the starter. And there

1181
00:50:50,960 --> 00:50:52,560
Speaker 1: was a time That's why I told you when we

1182
00:50:52,560 --> 00:50:54,319
Speaker 1: were talking and I looked at that how many people

1183
00:50:54,400 --> 00:50:57,200
Speaker 1: had picked Pittsburgh, and I said, rude for Cincinnati to

1184
00:50:57,200 --> 00:50:58,840
Speaker 1: cover the twelve and a half points spread, because I

1185
00:50:58,840 --> 00:51:01,160
Speaker 1: think when it closed might have been at like fifteen

1186
00:51:01,280 --> 00:51:03,719
Speaker 1: or something like that. Right, yep. So that's where you

1187
00:51:03,719 --> 00:51:06,440
Speaker 1: would say, here's a line that's locked in in the

1188
00:51:06,480 --> 00:51:10,160
Speaker 1: contest that then shifts. I think that is where game

1189
00:51:10,160 --> 00:51:13,080
Speaker 1: theory could play, where you'd be like, everybody's then going

1190
00:51:13,160 --> 00:51:15,719
Speaker 1: to be in non Washington. Let's just avoid it and

1191
00:51:15,719 --> 00:51:17,680
Speaker 1: hope for that upset if we have other games we like,

1192
00:51:17,840 --> 00:51:18,480
Speaker 1: you know what I'm saying.

1193
00:51:18,640 --> 00:51:18,879
Speaker 2: Yep?

1194
00:51:19,080 --> 00:51:21,160
Speaker 1: All right, So here's what we've gotten at We both

1195
00:51:21,200 --> 00:51:24,200
Speaker 1: like the Rams plus one and a half from the Seahawks,

1196
00:51:24,239 --> 00:51:26,480
Speaker 1: so that is in the Jaguars plus seven and a

1197
00:51:26,520 --> 00:51:30,239
Speaker 1: half from the Browns from the Bears, I'm sorry, and

1198
00:51:30,320 --> 00:51:33,400
Speaker 1: the Browns minus nine and a half to the Jets.

1199
00:51:33,400 --> 00:51:35,640
Speaker 1: So those are three that were definitely and we got

1200
00:51:35,640 --> 00:51:39,080
Speaker 1: a bunch of other possibles. I like the Ravens minus

1201
00:51:39,120 --> 00:51:41,239
Speaker 1: ten and a half to the Giants. Are you good

1202
00:51:41,239 --> 00:51:41,440
Speaker 1: with that?

1203
00:51:41,719 --> 00:51:41,879
Speaker 2: Yep?

1204
00:51:42,520 --> 00:51:44,800
Speaker 1: All right, So we've got that one, and then we've

1205
00:51:44,920 --> 00:51:51,080
Speaker 1: got four others that are under consideration, and that is

1206
00:51:51,120 --> 00:51:53,520
Speaker 1: the Raiders getting three and a half from the Dolphins,

1207
00:51:53,840 --> 00:51:56,640
Speaker 1: the Falcons getting ten and a half, from the Chiefs,

1208
00:51:57,040 --> 00:51:59,360
Speaker 1: the Bills laying seven and a half to the Patriots,

1209
00:51:59,360 --> 00:52:01,439
Speaker 1: but that one's not there, and the Titans getting three

1210
00:52:01,440 --> 00:52:03,440
Speaker 1: and a half from the Packers. I think if I

1211
00:52:03,480 --> 00:52:05,680
Speaker 1: would choose and I mentioned it, it would be the

1212
00:52:05,680 --> 00:52:08,080
Speaker 1: Falcons getting the ten and a half. And I like

1213
00:52:08,480 --> 00:52:12,360
Speaker 1: sort of the mix of heavy favorites and heavy dogs

1214
00:52:12,440 --> 00:52:15,120
Speaker 1: in this one, Like there's a lot of more than

1215
00:52:15,120 --> 00:52:17,279
Speaker 1: a touchdown. But I'd leave it to you to what

1216
00:52:17,320 --> 00:52:17,920
Speaker 1: you want.

1217
00:52:17,719 --> 00:52:21,480
Speaker 2: All right, So what is the current line for Falcons Chiefs?

1218
00:52:21,719 --> 00:52:22,960
Speaker 2: You don't have it in fun of me, do you? Yeah?

1219
00:52:23,000 --> 00:52:27,279
Speaker 1: Let me pull it up. I think it's a even

1220
00:52:28,440 --> 00:52:34,600
Speaker 1: it is way where is it? Where is sorry? Hold on, everybody,

1221
00:52:34,680 --> 00:52:36,680
Speaker 1: this is great. It's ten and a half still, that's

1222
00:52:36,680 --> 00:52:37,160
Speaker 1: where it is.

1223
00:52:38,280 --> 00:52:40,480
Speaker 2: It's ten and a half still, all right, So.

1224
00:52:40,440 --> 00:52:41,680
Speaker 1: It hasn't moved one way or another.

1225
00:52:42,280 --> 00:52:47,880
Speaker 2: So this number opened in Vegas. Opening number was twelve

1226
00:52:47,880 --> 00:52:52,279
Speaker 2: and a half. So the money, yes, the money's coming in.

1227
00:52:52,480 --> 00:52:54,359
Speaker 2: It's now ten and a half. So the money came

1228
00:52:54,400 --> 00:52:55,200
Speaker 2: in on the Falcons.

1229
00:52:55,239 --> 00:52:56,800
Speaker 1: So there's no way the Falcons are going to be

1230
00:52:56,800 --> 00:52:58,640
Speaker 1: a public play though, right, No.

1231
00:52:58,760 --> 00:53:00,600
Speaker 2: But what I'm what I mean by looking at that

1232
00:53:00,840 --> 00:53:04,239
Speaker 2: is that first line movement is professional. Yeah, so the

1233
00:53:04,239 --> 00:53:07,320
Speaker 2: money comes in first line move professional. Then there's closing

1234
00:53:07,360 --> 00:53:09,680
Speaker 2: line value, which is professionals at the end as to

1235
00:53:09,719 --> 00:53:12,080
Speaker 2: where the number actually closes, so opening line value and

1236
00:53:12,080 --> 00:53:15,600
Speaker 2: closing line value. So opening line value would say the

1237
00:53:15,680 --> 00:53:18,399
Speaker 2: right side is the Falcons, but we're getting a worse

1238
00:53:18,520 --> 00:53:22,520
Speaker 2: number than the opening line value. So there's money coming

1239
00:53:22,560 --> 00:53:25,840
Speaker 2: in on Atlanta and over ten and a half, it

1240
00:53:25,920 --> 00:53:28,319
Speaker 2: feels like Atlanta is the side. My only question would

1241
00:53:28,360 --> 00:53:31,400
Speaker 2: be why has this number stopped? So it's a Wednesday,

1242
00:53:31,520 --> 00:53:33,279
Speaker 2: so maybe the number comes in and we see over

1243
00:53:33,280 --> 00:53:35,360
Speaker 2: ten and a half. The number comes in, but in

1244
00:53:35,440 --> 00:53:39,040
Speaker 2: terms of the four games that we've listed, getting over

1245
00:53:39,640 --> 00:53:41,960
Speaker 2: ten and a half, getting over ten, going to ten

1246
00:53:42,000 --> 00:53:45,919
Speaker 2: and a half is the most attractive. Let me say

1247
00:53:45,920 --> 00:53:46,800
Speaker 2: that of a number.

1248
00:53:47,040 --> 00:53:49,359
Speaker 1: All right, So look, here's the deal. It's Wednesday. As

1249
00:53:49,400 --> 00:53:51,239
Speaker 1: we've said, we've got a lot more work to do

1250
00:53:51,400 --> 00:53:53,279
Speaker 1: to sort of get as much information as possible. And

1251
00:53:53,320 --> 00:53:56,320
Speaker 1: again you've got especially with COVID, where you've got random

1252
00:53:56,400 --> 00:53:59,960
Speaker 1: players suddenly sitting out and stuff like that. You's definitely change,

1253
00:54:00,239 --> 00:54:02,319
Speaker 1: but let's pencil them in. Then let's pencil it in here.

1254
00:54:02,400 --> 00:54:04,279
Speaker 1: Let's get we got a lot of we got Oh

1255
00:54:04,280 --> 00:54:08,360
Speaker 1: my god, we got three three numbers that are bordering

1256
00:54:08,400 --> 00:54:11,359
Speaker 1: around ten. We've got one over seven. Four of our

1257
00:54:11,400 --> 00:54:13,680
Speaker 1: five picks have lines over seven and a half. So

1258
00:54:13,880 --> 00:54:16,200
Speaker 1: I like that, all right. So here's what are pencil

1259
00:54:16,280 --> 00:54:18,760
Speaker 1: it rams getting one and a half from the Seahawks,

1260
00:54:18,800 --> 00:54:22,160
Speaker 1: Jaguars getting seven and a half from the Bears, Brown's

1261
00:54:22,239 --> 00:54:24,640
Speaker 1: laying nine and a half to the Jets, Ravens laying

1262
00:54:24,680 --> 00:54:26,440
Speaker 1: ten and a half to the Giants, and the Falcons

1263
00:54:26,480 --> 00:54:28,640
Speaker 1: getting ten and a half from the Chiefs. I kind

1264
00:54:28,680 --> 00:54:30,520
Speaker 1: of like those, Matt, and I also think that we

1265
00:54:30,600 --> 00:54:32,600
Speaker 1: have a few other games that I'd be willing to

1266
00:54:32,640 --> 00:54:35,160
Speaker 1: go with. Like I could see going with the Titans, Okay,

1267
00:54:35,280 --> 00:54:37,160
Speaker 1: we really went to I could see you talking me

1268
00:54:37,239 --> 00:54:39,240
Speaker 1: to the Raiders. I didn't think so at the time,

1269
00:54:39,600 --> 00:54:41,279
Speaker 1: but I could see about it. And if maybe people

1270
00:54:41,280 --> 00:54:43,080
Speaker 1: will talk you into the Bills laying seven and a half.

1271
00:54:43,160 --> 00:54:46,160
Speaker 1: But I don't know, you feel alright with this, Okay?

1272
00:54:46,239 --> 00:54:49,440
Speaker 2: I like your theory of big dogs and big favorites. Again,

1273
00:54:50,280 --> 00:54:52,480
Speaker 2: if we were going to I would rather have three

1274
00:54:52,520 --> 00:54:55,560
Speaker 2: to two dogs to favorites, which we do. So I

1275
00:54:55,719 --> 00:54:58,040
Speaker 2: like the fact that we're going more with underdogs here

1276
00:54:58,040 --> 00:55:01,520
Speaker 2: in week sixteen. It's just early speaking. The public has

1277
00:55:01,560 --> 00:55:04,040
Speaker 2: watched enough. The public starts laying favorites even heavier in

1278
00:55:04,120 --> 00:55:06,960
Speaker 2: seventeen and eighteen. Yeah, and in week sixteen seventeen rather yep,

1279
00:55:07,080 --> 00:55:11,840
Speaker 2: So I'm going I liked I liked these picks right now.

1280
00:55:11,880 --> 00:55:14,400
Speaker 1: Yeah, me too, me too, all right, very good, all right.

1281
00:55:14,440 --> 00:55:15,800
Speaker 1: So that's so. Just to be clear, this is the

1282
00:55:15,920 --> 00:55:18,359
Speaker 1: last week of the DraftKings contest. It only runs through

1283
00:55:18,400 --> 00:55:21,080
Speaker 1: week sixteen, Matt, your other two contests continue right through

1284
00:55:21,080 --> 00:55:24,160
Speaker 1: week seventeen. Now, regardless of the contest, we're still gonna

1285
00:55:24,160 --> 00:55:25,560
Speaker 1: be here. We'll just be talking the game and not

1286
00:55:25,560 --> 00:55:27,799
Speaker 1: putting them into contests, or we can maybe we'll come

1287
00:55:27,880 --> 00:55:29,719
Speaker 1: up with some fun game that we can have a

1288
00:55:29,760 --> 00:55:32,120
Speaker 1: little competition or something to do our best bets or

1289
00:55:32,160 --> 00:55:34,160
Speaker 1: something like that. But we will be here every week

1290
00:55:34,160 --> 00:55:36,239
Speaker 1: for this, we'll do the postseason. We'll have all the

1291
00:55:36,239 --> 00:55:38,520
Speaker 1: good things going. Maybe we'll get creative with some teasers

1292
00:55:38,600 --> 00:55:40,799
Speaker 1: and some two team teasers, which is the paral two

1293
00:55:40,840 --> 00:55:44,279
Speaker 1: team teasers. My favorite teasers eleven and six on the year. Yeah,

1294
00:55:44,320 --> 00:55:46,200
Speaker 1: you got a good one for this weekend. Get up

1295
00:55:46,239 --> 00:55:47,280
Speaker 1: you'll give it on the juice.

1296
00:55:47,560 --> 00:55:49,680
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm gonna. I'm gonna have to do well. I'm

1297
00:55:50,120 --> 00:55:52,279
Speaker 2: My theory is when there's more than one game on

1298
00:55:52,360 --> 00:55:53,440
Speaker 2: a day, I do it.

1299
00:55:53,680 --> 00:55:54,000
Speaker 1: Okay.

1300
00:55:54,040 --> 00:55:57,239
Speaker 2: So like I've got Christmas, I've got Saturday, I've got Friday,

1301
00:55:57,280 --> 00:56:00,440
Speaker 2: Saturday and Sunday. Okay, I'll have tea. There's an all

1302
00:56:00,480 --> 00:56:01,560
Speaker 2: three days on the juice.

1303
00:56:01,719 --> 00:56:03,680
Speaker 1: Well, Friday, there's only one game though.

1304
00:56:03,560 --> 00:56:05,680
Speaker 2: Right, I thought there was more than one on Friday,

1305
00:56:05,719 --> 00:56:06,040
Speaker 2: only one.

1306
00:56:06,040 --> 00:56:08,000
Speaker 1: I think Friday is just the Saints and the Vikings

1307
00:56:08,000 --> 00:56:10,880
Speaker 1: and then I'll three three on Saturday and then the

1308
00:56:10,920 --> 00:56:12,319
Speaker 1: rest on some So the NFL.

1309
00:56:12,120 --> 00:56:14,000
Speaker 2: Isn't going to go head to head with the NBA. Huh,

1310
00:56:14,000 --> 00:56:18,800
Speaker 2: that's smart, I guess whatever. Whatever, So then Saturday Sunday

1311
00:56:18,800 --> 00:56:21,160
Speaker 2: will be there'll be one each one one Saturday.

1312
00:56:20,840 --> 00:56:23,919
Speaker 1: Well, well, nothing will beat your two team Bills down

1313
00:56:23,960 --> 00:56:26,439
Speaker 1: to basically a pick and the Packers down to two

1314
00:56:26,520 --> 00:56:27,200
Speaker 1: or whatever it was.

1315
00:56:28,000 --> 00:56:29,759
Speaker 2: I was talking to a book maker friend of mine.

1316
00:56:29,800 --> 00:56:32,000
Speaker 2: He was like, how much money did you put on that?

1317
00:56:32,440 --> 00:56:34,799
Speaker 2: It's like why, He's like, whatever you did, you should

1318
00:56:34,840 --> 00:56:37,200
Speaker 2: have put four times on it. Yeah, He's like, that.

1319
00:56:37,600 --> 00:56:39,640
Speaker 1: Was the I've been looking al ready for this week.

1320
00:56:39,840 --> 00:56:42,000
Speaker 1: The lines are sharp. I mean, at this point in

1321
00:56:42,000 --> 00:56:45,120
Speaker 1: the season, the lines are really good. So I haven't

1322
00:56:45,160 --> 00:56:46,759
Speaker 1: found one that I really liked, but that one I

1323
00:56:46,800 --> 00:56:49,240
Speaker 1: remember when you recommended it. I was like, oh.

1324
00:56:49,120 --> 00:56:53,640
Speaker 2: Yeah, everybody, every like, literally everyone I knew, had that

1325
00:56:53,680 --> 00:56:55,680
Speaker 2: teaser that was like the auto play teaser.

1326
00:56:55,840 --> 00:56:58,000
Speaker 1: Well, we'll get creative here as we go in. But again,

1327
00:56:58,160 --> 00:56:59,840
Speaker 1: thanks for listening. Check out the Daily Juice if you

1328
00:56:59,880 --> 00:57:02,359
Speaker 1: want more of Matt's picks. He's you know, everybody. I'm

1329
00:57:02,360 --> 00:57:03,759
Speaker 1: sure if you listen to this podcast, you listen to

1330
00:57:03,800 --> 00:57:07,200
Speaker 1: Daily Juice because you're a smart gambler. Anyway, we'll be

1331
00:57:07,280 --> 00:57:10,120
Speaker 1: back as always next week, probably on Thursday again doing

1332
00:57:10,120 --> 00:57:12,239
Speaker 1: it normally, But until then, good luck with all your

1333
00:57:12,280 --> 00:57:13,040
Speaker 1: wagers this weekend.