Speaker 1: What is up, Dolphans And welcome to the Draft Time Podcast.
Speaker 1: I am your host, Travis Wingfield and on today's shore show,
Speaker 1: let's do it one more time for the regular season.
Speaker 1: Hopefully we have one more of these next week. Will
Speaker 1: preve you the biggest game of the season against the
Speaker 1: New York Jets, tell you the difference and what to
Speaker 1: expect depending on which quarterback plays, the big matchups, the
Speaker 1: keys to victory, and much much more, including plenty of
Speaker 1: Jets hate from the Baptist heillth Studios inside the Baptist
Speaker 1: Health Training Complex.
Speaker 2: This is the Draft Time Podcast.
Speaker 3: Guess the goddamn Jets.
Speaker 1: The Jets killed Carl and I think if Carl were
Speaker 1: still kicking this season definitely would have killed Carl for
Speaker 1: the New York Jets. What an absolute tire fire it's
Speaker 1: been for the Jets who all off season, all summer
Speaker 1: long for the last two years. We finally got our
Speaker 1: elite quarterback and just wait until he plays a full
Speaker 1: season and we're gonna be the best team in the world.
Speaker 1: And I'm Joey Jets and it's gonna be awesome. And
Speaker 1: they're four and twelve, and they're four and twelve and
Speaker 1: the Dolphins will go up there and try to make
Speaker 1: it four and thirteen from Metli Stadium, Week number eighteen
Speaker 1: to four to twenty five kickoff on Fox. It's supposed
Speaker 1: to be thirty four degrees at kickoff into the twenties
Speaker 1: at nightfall, thirteen mile prior wins, but gust up to
Speaker 1: twenty five miles prior no precipitation. And just to you know,
Speaker 1: I'm I'm kind of ready for off season mode, recording
Speaker 1: this podcast before all the playoff games kickoff today here
Speaker 1: on Wednesday. Happy New Year everybody out there in Dolphins Land.
Speaker 1: And like watching Penn State last night and seeing Tyler
Speaker 1: Warren do his thing, Like what a fun first round
Speaker 1: pick he would be. We're gonna get a look at
Speaker 1: you know, Tesz Johnson today in this game, and for
Speaker 1: the the Organ wide receiver. We're gonna get a look
Speaker 1: at Xavier watch the Notre Dame safety. We're gonna get
Speaker 1: a look at Malachi Starks, the Georgia's safety. We're gonna
Speaker 1: get a look at Josh Connery, the Oregon tackle. Like
Speaker 1: there is gonna be a lot of fun scouting to watch,
Speaker 1: and part of me is like already into that world.
Speaker 1: And just saying like, let's go ahead and get to
Speaker 1: twenty twenty five, because I think this team with a
Speaker 1: soft reboot, hopefully with better health. Even though we say
Speaker 1: that every single year and it has to they have
Speaker 1: to find a way to address that. I feel like
Speaker 1: twenty twenty five, especially off the heels of yesterday's podcast
Speaker 1: where I very optimistically painted a picture of how this
Speaker 1: team could be thirteen and three. I again, I know
Speaker 1: that's not a realistic situation because you could point to
Speaker 1: the Jets game as a game they should have lost.
Speaker 1: If Vante Adams does not go out of bounds before
Speaker 1: that fourth quarter field goal at the end, the Dolphins
Speaker 1: lose that game. So I understand that perspective. But I
Speaker 1: just think that next year, with the schedule the way
Speaker 1: it plays out, like, I think Miami's gonna be in
Speaker 1: a good spot next year, even if they get into
Speaker 1: the playoffs with the win here today.
Speaker 2: But that's or on Sunday.
Speaker 1: But that's why I'm kind of in this mode because
Speaker 1: isn't it just so fitting for the way this year
Speaker 1: has gone with all of the trials and tribulations of
Speaker 1: your injuries, of your quarterback availability, of the big games
Speaker 1: of the cold weather when he was down back in September.
Speaker 1: All the games that you've been watching around the league,
Speaker 1: hoping for the teams that you're competing with to lose games,
Speaker 1: and they find ways to win those games. With four
Speaker 1: interceptions in those games and missfield goals from the opposition
Speaker 1: in those games, it just feels so fitting that your
Speaker 1: playoff hopes are going to likely come down to I
Speaker 1: don't even know how to say.
Speaker 2: Is it Chris like Ola con or ola something? I
Speaker 2: don't know.
Speaker 1: He's going to probably play snap for the Chiefs on
Speaker 1: Sunday in place of Carson Wentz, who probably plays the
Speaker 1: first half of that game or so, and the Broncos
Speaker 1: are ten point favorites, and those are just games that
Speaker 1: you don't typically lose in the NFL. However, the Colts
Speaker 1: did lose to the Giants as double digit favorites in
Speaker 1: that game, so we'll see. I think it was like
Speaker 1: seven and a half, but either way, you get the
Speaker 1: whole point. Let's go ahead and break this game down.
Speaker 1: I'm just kind of experiencing a bit of an existential
Speaker 1: crisis on what's going to happen on Sundays. I think
Speaker 1: mine's going to take care of business, as we'll predict
Speaker 1: here in a second, and I don't think they'll get
Speaker 1: the help they need.
Speaker 2: We shall see.
Speaker 1: So this has to be no check that this is
Speaker 1: definitely the most disappointing team in the NFL this year,
Speaker 1: right Super Bowl. Picked by so many at least at minimum,
Speaker 1: battling for the AFC East title with the Dolphins and
Speaker 1: the Bills.
Speaker 2: They have their quarterback start every game.
Speaker 1: Yet here they are at four and twelve, coming off
Speaker 1: the lowest QBR game in a game this season, one
Speaker 1: point two for Rogers. He exits the game at forty
Speaker 1: to nothing. They score fourteen points with Tyrod Taylor. DJ
Speaker 1: Reid said last week he's excited to get to free agency.
Speaker 1: You're not going to see sauce Gardner in this game.
Speaker 1: I imagine who had his hamstring flare up and pulled
Speaker 1: himself out of the game for the second consecutive game.
Speaker 1: In fact, somebody on a social media platform, I think
Speaker 1: it was Instagram, had commented on how or T Higgins
Speaker 1: like posted? Rather sauce Gardner posted a T Higgins graphic
Speaker 1: and said pay that man, and somebody responded to him
Speaker 1: and said tell him to come to the Jets, and
Speaker 1: Sauce replied and said, I will not be doing that.
Speaker 1: So things are peachy for the New York Jets. Do
Speaker 1: they play DJ Reid after saying he basically wants out
Speaker 1: after this last game.
Speaker 2: I don't know.
Speaker 1: I don't know how you can after that comment, but
Speaker 1: you guys know the story. They bought him out in
Speaker 1: twenty twenty, won a couple of games down the stretch
Speaker 1: that year with Adam Gase. That pushes them off the
Speaker 1: Trevor Lawrence sweepstakes and they wind up with not that
Speaker 1: particular looking bust at the moment, but a bust in
Speaker 1: Zach Wilson, who's one of the biggest bus in the
Speaker 1: history of the league. But he produced a bunch of
Speaker 1: seven and eight win teams playing one of the lowest
Speaker 1: EPA passing marks in the NFL every single year when
Speaker 1: he started. They get their elite quarterback back and it
Speaker 1: crashes and burns in ways they could not have imagined.
Speaker 2: You know how this team was built. It's like doing
Speaker 2: the Bills.
Speaker 1: You just don't need a refresher catching up on this
Speaker 1: team until next year. We'll do a deep dive on
Speaker 1: this squad like we did the Patriots when they change
Speaker 1: their head coach and GM and probably a quarterback as well,
Speaker 1: their offense. I don't think that it's kind of what
Speaker 1: we thought it was going to be. I think a
Speaker 1: major contributing factor to the Jets struggles has been the
Speaker 1: inability to run the football, paired with an offense that
Speaker 1: takes a lot of time and reps to really perfect.
Speaker 2: I mean, let's call it what it is. It's the
Speaker 2: Aaron Rodgers offense.
Speaker 1: A series of high level site adjustments that is communicated
Speaker 1: through hand signals and familiarity. Hence why I think the
Speaker 1: belief was that DeVante Adams would come in and make
Speaker 1: a major impact. And Adams beat us like a drum
Speaker 1: in that game back in Week fourteen, And now they
Speaker 1: will have to go into that game without Kendall Fuller
Speaker 1: and hope to stop those receivers again. But I think
Speaker 1: that you've seen the lack of chemistry, even as recently
Speaker 1: as last week. There was a third down play where
Speaker 1: Rogers threw the ball at the feet of Tyler Conklin
Speaker 1: and then did that quarterback thing where you put your
Speaker 1: palm out in your motion, like you know, cut this way,
Speaker 1: and it's like, even if he was in the wrong spot,
Speaker 1: like having those issues persist in Week seventeen is emblematic
Speaker 1: of the bigger issue. They have a lot of options
Speaker 1: and the aforementioned side adjustments. I just don't think that
Speaker 1: ever clicked, especially with the play caller change. But in honesty,
Speaker 1: it's always been Aaron Rodgers pulling the strings. So you
Speaker 1: get a lot of routes back to the quarterback, you know, stationary,
Speaker 1: stagnant routes. I think a lot of the belief is
Speaker 1: that Aaron will see it and play on time, and
Speaker 1: then if it's not there, there's just not a lot
Speaker 1: of ability to create because well, they have to keep
Speaker 1: him healthy. He's off an Achilles injury, he's forty years old.
Speaker 1: But also just the design of the offense now that
Speaker 1: was highly effective against US back in Week fourteen, right
Speaker 1: his best game of the season. I tend to think
Speaker 1: the Dolphins defense will have a bit of a bone
Speaker 1: to pick with that, especially Coach Weaver wanting to revert
Speaker 1: the results of that day in terms of the Jets
Speaker 1: offensive success, and I really feel confident they'll find a
Speaker 1: way to do that By structure, it's seventy percent eleven personnel,
Speaker 1: twenty percent twelve personnel. They do some thirteen, some twenty one,
Speaker 1: but it's a pretty common NFL deployment. They've been substantially
Speaker 1: better versus zone than man coverage, and I think that
Speaker 1: goes back to the side adjustment comments we talked about,
Speaker 1: where it's easier to spot throw than it is to
Speaker 1: throw guys open when you're playing against own coverage, especially
Speaker 1: with or rather, I should say, that kind of flies
Speaker 1: in the face of the skills toucher receivers have and
Speaker 1: all those back shoulder balls. But it's just a mess.
Speaker 1: To be perfectly frank with you, guys, how do you
Speaker 1: attack it? The first key is going to be a
Speaker 1: stop their early down running game, and frankly, that's what
Speaker 1: most teams have done against them. And they'll mix it
Speaker 1: up with gap and zone and different variations of zone,
Speaker 1: but man, they just struggle with to the point of attack,
Speaker 1: particularly off the edge. They got a couple of backup
Speaker 1: tackles playing right now. I think you can accomplish this
Speaker 1: by playing a lot of bass but also getting your
Speaker 1: dogs Sealer and Campbell on the edge. They've done that
Speaker 1: so many times this year, playing five techniques and defensive
Speaker 1: end positions.
Speaker 2: I think this is a game where they could replicate that.
Speaker 1: I also would call on a mix of man coverage
Speaker 1: with Ramsey and Storm, who I thought had his best
Speaker 1: game of the year against the Browns, and of course
Speaker 1: the classic Weaver blitz and sim pressure looks and fire zones.
Speaker 1: They've struggled to communicate upfront from what I've seen, especially
Speaker 1: with Olufashanu down. I do think that their interior offensive
Speaker 1: line is very good. But if you can create trouble
Speaker 1: in the communication and use your speed off the edge,
Speaker 1: I think you can get some double clutches and then
Speaker 1: once you collapse the pocket.
Speaker 2: Rogers is not going to run around and create.
Speaker 1: If you win enough on the early downs, you'll get
Speaker 1: your third down opportunities in plenty of sacks in those positions.
Speaker 1: The Big Three versus the Jets offense again Number one,
Speaker 1: shut down, early down running game. So the Jets running
Speaker 1: offense that's not super dissimilar to ours in terms of
Speaker 1: how they want to start and then unfold things from there.
Speaker 1: Lots of the outside zone stresses. You're conditioning your ability
Speaker 1: to set edges off the corners and then unfurl the
Speaker 1: passing game from there with misdirection, play action boot legs
Speaker 1: all that stuff, but they have struggled with that for
Speaker 1: a handful of reasons. First, they'll have Breeze Hall back
Speaker 1: in this game after he didn't play in Week fourteen.
Speaker 1: But there's not many players that I think are substantially
Speaker 1: worse than their perception, and maybe this is not the
Speaker 1: case for Jets fans than Breeze Hall. Like he's slow,
Speaker 1: he doesn't really create that much, and they just can't
Speaker 1: run the ball off the edge. I think it's because
Speaker 1: they don't have enough speed at running back and their
Speaker 1: why position is an absolute tire fire there. I mentioned
Speaker 1: this on the podcast back in week fourteen. Joe Blewett,
Speaker 1: who I used to do podcasts with before I even
Speaker 1: got any popularity on social media, does film breakdowns, and
Speaker 1: he had a breakdown about I forget the tight end's name,
Speaker 1: but there was multiple tight ends that consistently just lose
Speaker 1: their leverage in the blocking game and they can't run
Speaker 1: the ball off the edge. What's cut down the entire
Speaker 1: origin of this Rogers led offense. And then you have
Speaker 1: an offensive line that I think has play better than
Speaker 1: they have in the past, but with injuries off the
Speaker 1: corner and those aforementioned issues that they haven't had a
Speaker 1: chance to really settle and gel in together, aside from
Speaker 1: the interior three who've played most of the year together.
Speaker 1: But it's just so important upfront to have that continuity,
Speaker 1: and I think I might say it's as important, maybe
Speaker 1: more important than the collection of individual talent. They've had
Speaker 1: to rotate guys through. You know, starting lineup on Sunday
Speaker 1: and Buffalo was Max Mitchell, John Simpson, Joe Tipman, Elijah
Speaker 1: Vera Tucker and Morgan Moses. The final part of the
Speaker 1: run game struggle is the consequence of having again a
Speaker 1: forty one year old quarterback off major surgery. That's he's
Speaker 1: just not going to move around a lot back there,
Speaker 1: and the ability to bootleg off those outside zones and
Speaker 1: your need to contain backside it's just not as as
Speaker 1: strong as it used to be against this quarterback. So
Speaker 1: when I look at the Fins, I think about getting
Speaker 1: Seeler and Campbell on the edge to beat up their
Speaker 1: why and left tackle right tackle combination put pressure on Rogers' backside,
Speaker 1: and then the speed of Chop off their right tackle
Speaker 1: Morgan Moses, who is a good player, but chop is
Speaker 1: his strength is Morgan Mogus's weakness is the speed and
Speaker 1: the ability to.
Speaker 2: Get out to the corner. So I think that he's
Speaker 2: gonna have a big game.
Speaker 1: I think that impacts the way they help on him,
Speaker 1: which creates big chances for Zach Seedler as well. And
Speaker 1: even off the other edge, they could slide protection away
Speaker 1: from that and you get Max Mitchell on even an
Speaker 1: Emmanuel Ogba or you know whoever they want to put
Speaker 1: out there, Quentin Bell, like, I think you can beat
Speaker 1: that guy. So big Chop, big Sealer game key number
Speaker 1: two Garrett Wilson and DeVante Adams, that's just the key.
Speaker 1: I mean, I know their offense has been up and
Speaker 1: down and struggled, but you can pull up individual reps
Speaker 1: and see, oh yeah, there's the thinking there. Those are
Speaker 1: really good receivers at in flight adjustments. Garrett Wilson's a
Speaker 1: very good release package and knows how to cross face
Speaker 1: and put guys in the blind spot in the blender,
Speaker 1: so to speak. And Rogers has no problems throwing those
Speaker 1: guys open. They both went off in that game back
Speaker 1: in Week fourteen, but their best play has been the go,
Speaker 1: the comeback and the back shoulder conversion. Option, which is
Speaker 1: all the same route that you can change on the fly,
Speaker 1: but you can, you know, you play them without safety
Speaker 1: help and they'll take advantage of that. We saw it
Speaker 1: back in the in the Week fourteen game. They will
Speaker 1: go after that matchup usually the boundary and they'll show
Speaker 1: the article and then once the cornerback gets out of phase,
Speaker 1: Rogers is gonna rip that thing right to the back shoulder.
Speaker 1: So it's imperative for Ramsey to play physically up the
Speaker 1: stem and try to disrupt that for Storm to get
Speaker 1: in position to be able to make plays. I imagine
Speaker 1: you'll get some help for Storm Duck. And then the
Speaker 1: interior with cater co who who kind of I thought
Speaker 1: had his worst game communication wise against the Jets.
Speaker 2: They had really all year.
Speaker 1: I have to imagine the Jets are looking at our
Speaker 1: lineup and trying to find ways to get their vets
Speaker 1: on the rookie. Right.
Speaker 2: That's how this league goes.
Speaker 1: You're gonna see Jalen Ramsey, You're gonna see cater coo
Speaker 1: who You're gonna see Storm Duck. Where's the ball going?
Speaker 1: It's going to Storm Duck most of the time. To
Speaker 1: you know, put together a good tape for us here
Speaker 1: for storm Duck to give you some helpe going into
Speaker 1: the off season about his long term future, but also, hey,
Speaker 1: help let's get to nine and eight and possibly a
Speaker 1: playoff Berth. So, I think it's important to play with
Speaker 1: the mindset of disruption at the line of scrimmage and
Speaker 1: remain physical without getting grabby down the stem. You cannot
Speaker 1: give these guys free access. They have struggle with timing
Speaker 1: all year long. Don't let them find it by playing
Speaker 1: passive and letting them dictate the terms offensively. If you
Speaker 1: do that with what I discussed in these earlier points,
Speaker 1: I think you free up my ability to create some
Speaker 1: splash plays, to get some takeaways, give that offense some
Speaker 1: short fields, and take control of this game. Now what
Speaker 1: you definitely need because the cornerbacks have done their job
Speaker 1: for the most part this year, but you need better
Speaker 1: safety play. It's been bad all year, like the whole
Speaker 1: season has been bad, and they're gonna have to find
Speaker 1: a way to better communicate on the back end against
Speaker 1: the Jets, because that's where the communication or the breakdowns
Speaker 1: happened through communication in that game, and that was you know,
Speaker 1: Javon was I think nursing an injury at that point,
Speaker 1: and Jordan Poyer was going through something and they weren't
Speaker 1: practicing together, and they had different cornerbacks, and Kendall Fuller
Speaker 1: was up and then was down them back up, and yeah,
Speaker 1: I just think that you have to have much much
Speaker 1: better safety play than what Miami has gotten to stop
Speaker 1: an offense that has receivers like these two guys. Let's
Speaker 1: go ahead and take our first break rate there, come
Speaker 1: back and do the third key against the Jets offense.
Speaker 1: We'll do all the keys against the Dolphins or the
Speaker 1: Jets defense. Rather, we'll pick the game all that stuff.
Speaker 1: Draft Time Podcast, your host Travis Wingfield, brought to you
Speaker 1: by Auto Nation. Two keys against the Jets offense. In
Speaker 1: the books, the third key is a key against any
Speaker 1: quarterback you'll ever face, especially a forty one year old
Speaker 1: old man.
Speaker 2: Come after the quarterback.
Speaker 1: So this can be tricky because on one hand, Rogers
Speaker 1: has been blitzed thirty percent of his dropbacks, but he's
Speaker 1: throwing nine picks or rather nine touchdowns I should say,
Speaker 1: and two picks against it. But it does come with
Speaker 1: a one point six yard drop in pertempt or average
Speaker 1: per attempt seven point one to five and a half,
Speaker 1: and when not blitzed, he's throwing eight picks, which means
Speaker 1: more guys than coverage. Right, But here's why I think
Speaker 1: that's the case. And when I watch the tape, it
Speaker 1: backs this up for me. When you hit Rogers and
Speaker 1: make him feel you early, the ball starts coming out
Speaker 1: faster and faster, and I just don't think he wants
Speaker 1: to get punishment in an NFL game anymore, especially for
Speaker 1: a four and twelve team. Granted the ability to get
Speaker 1: the ball out hot as a strength of his versus
Speaker 1: the blitz. He has a two point twenty nine second
Speaker 1: time to throw not blitzed, it's two point seven to eight.
Speaker 1: And if you look around the league and here are
Speaker 1: the top original starters in terms of top time to throw,
Speaker 1: it's tu It's Mayfield, it's Jayden Daniels, It's Joe Burrow,
Speaker 1: four of the best processors in the entire league. Aaron
Speaker 1: Rodgers is in that category for the most part as well.
Speaker 1: But what made Rogers was that elite processing skill, right,
Speaker 1: but also being one of the great play extenders in
Speaker 1: the history of the league and one of the guys
Speaker 1: that can burn you out of the pocket more than
Speaker 1: anybody else ever has.
Speaker 2: That's not him anymore.
Speaker 1: So when I watch that tape, I see him play
Speaker 1: pretty comfortable and confident. But man, the moment you start
Speaker 1: putting him on the ground, the ball starts coming out
Speaker 1: even faster. And in this game, probably his last with
Speaker 1: the Jets, where I think his only motivation to play
Speaker 1: in this game is to get five hundred touchdowns. I
Speaker 1: think if he had thrown a touchdown against the Bills,
Speaker 1: I don't think you would have seen him this week.
Speaker 1: In fact, maybe they pull him out after he gets
Speaker 1: one touchdown pass if he does, but hey, let's not
Speaker 1: let him do that, because that would be hilarious. And
Speaker 1: I think that he's gonna, you know, he wants to
Speaker 1: play in twenty twenty five, he says, probably not for
Speaker 1: the Jets. I don't think whatdy Johnson wants him back,
Speaker 1: So I don't think that he'll be all that excited,
Speaker 1: especially because that touchdown pass out of the way early.
Speaker 1: To stand in there and take punishment for sixty minutes,
Speaker 1: I think this means another week of and Dotson walking
Speaker 1: up frequently, plenty of sim pressures and fire zones where
Speaker 1: they just constantly bring an extra player, but mixing it
Speaker 1: up enough to hopefully bait Rodgers into the wrong decision.
Speaker 1: He's thrown picks on those little fire zone peel back
Speaker 1: hook drops from like Benito Jones, from Zach Seeler. He'll
Speaker 1: throw those into those guys if you do it enough.
Speaker 1: But here is where I take another step. Without Fashanu,
Speaker 1: they're down to ot three and four. I think Morgan
Speaker 1: Moses is a good player, but as we mentioned, speed
Speaker 1: is his kryptonite. That's chops calling card. And then with
Speaker 1: Max Mitchell, you know he struggled last year as a
Speaker 1: rookie and he has a ninety six point one pass
Speaker 1: block efficiency score this year, which is below the threshold
Speaker 1: we talk about all the time on the show. Here,
Speaker 1: I think if you look at your rush matchup, you're
Speaker 1: probably not going to confuse them or just consistently beat
Speaker 1: them inside because of that continuity with Simpson, Tipman and
Speaker 1: Avt inside and it's very good, a very good combination,
Speaker 1: but without the fleet of foot ability you need to
Speaker 1: beat perimeter pressure. I think you can get after the
Speaker 1: quarterback with your natural edges, but also blitzer from the
Speaker 1: linebackers from Holland and and Ramsey, and then also just
Speaker 1: the way that lends itself to playing good run defense
Speaker 1: as well.
Speaker 2: Let's go ahead and pivot here.
Speaker 1: Let's just a sound job for that, actually, and that's
Speaker 1: really what the Dolphins have been doing to the New
Speaker 1: York Jets. They've been slapping him on the back of
Speaker 1: the head, knocking his glasses off of his head as
Speaker 1: he tries to set an example for the rest of
Speaker 1: the class in Rex Kwon do the Dolphins have? Could
Speaker 1: make this thirteen of the last fifteen games over the Jets.
Speaker 1: How fun is that? I love beating the crap out
Speaker 1: of this crappy franchise. We could make it back to
Speaker 1: back sweeps against the Jets and Patriots. The last time
Speaker 1: the Dolphins did that was when Don Shula hoisted back
Speaker 1: to back Lombardi Trophies in seventy two and seventy three,
Speaker 1: four consecutive wins over the Jets and Patriots inside of
Speaker 1: two seasons. This could be the first time you've done
Speaker 1: that since the seventies, and you have to do it
Speaker 1: by beating a Jets defense that is not very good
Speaker 1: anymore either. Even with the coaching changes, the principles are
Speaker 1: the same. They want to play one gap penetration play
Speaker 1: on the other side of the line of scrimmage. But
Speaker 1: it doesn't really work anymore because they sent all their
Speaker 1: good pass rushers out of town. They have athletic, physical linebackers.
Speaker 1: We talked about Jamie and Sherwood last time, a top
Speaker 1: free agent target of mine this offseason if he hits
Speaker 1: that market. They want to dictate the terms outside and
Speaker 1: does a lot of They do a lot of that
Speaker 1: with press Cover one with those lengthy good man corners
Speaker 1: that I don't think are playing like that right now.
Speaker 2: Either.
Speaker 1: They run the second most Cover one in football, behind
Speaker 1: only Detroit. That's basically their only man coverage. Look, they
Speaker 1: do not play two man. In fact, they play it
Speaker 1: for tide for the lowest rate in the NFL. So
Speaker 1: I don't expect them to run the one coverage that
Speaker 1: has actually, you know, given two of fits over the
Speaker 1: last several years. If if to a players in the
Speaker 1: game now, they do have a good mix of zone
Speaker 1: when it's an even blend of three in quarters, which
Speaker 1: is you know, Cover three or Cover four, which is
Speaker 1: all that means is Cover three is each deep defender
Speaker 1: has a deep third in terms of the coverage shell.
Speaker 1: When it's quarters, they all have a deep fourth, but
Speaker 1: you can run through quarters more easily.
Speaker 2: Because they tend to not.
Speaker 1: They kind of press up a little bit in quarters
Speaker 1: unless you get a deeper drop. Then they have a
Speaker 1: Cover six package, which is it's quarter quarter half, which
Speaker 1: means it's three deep coverage, but it's not a third each.
Speaker 1: It's a quarter of the field, quarter of the field,
Speaker 1: half the field. You get an opposite side cornerback that
Speaker 1: comes down and plays the curl flat, and it just
Speaker 1: creates a little bit confusion in terms of what the
Speaker 1: quarterback might see for how they get to those different
Speaker 1: structure shells. And they're also one of ten teams that's
Speaker 1: double digits and Cover six, So they try to confuse
Speaker 1: you by making the stuff by making different coverages look
Speaker 1: the exact same. I would expect it to look like
Speaker 1: it has the past few years. Zone early downs, you know,
Speaker 1: man on third and on media, third and well, it's
Speaker 1: hard to say.
Speaker 2: I don't about Huntley.
Speaker 1: I guess with Huntley third and medium and long, but
Speaker 1: against him, maybe you play zone on third and short too,
Speaker 1: because Huntley's ability to.
Speaker 2: Run the football exists.
Speaker 1: So for two or Snoop and the boys, they have
Speaker 1: to be very adept at filtering between take what's there
Speaker 1: and attack mode. That's the challenge this week, the calibration,
Speaker 1: if you will. We saw them do an outstanding job
Speaker 1: of this back in Week fourteen. Tua's heat map was
Speaker 1: a bunch of outs in the five to twelve yard range.
Speaker 1: He absolutely eight in that part of the field. Do
Speaker 1: blitz at a twenty five percent clip, But I think
Speaker 1: that will drastically decrease if it's Tua, but I could
Speaker 1: see him trying it out more if it is Snoop.
Speaker 1: I think you see more zone versus or you see
Speaker 1: more man rather more zone versus Snoop than you would
Speaker 1: against Tua. How do you attack this defense? I think
Speaker 1: we kind of told you there, but I'll go ahead
Speaker 1: and just confirm it. Further, run the ball, get it
Speaker 1: on the edge further cornerbacks to play both the man
Speaker 1: and the football on the edge. Force him to do that,
Speaker 1: I should say, stretch that front that wants to play
Speaker 1: Downhill out to the perimeter. But also it changes if
Speaker 1: they don't have Sauce or even dj Reeve for that matter.
Speaker 1: And then, of course, with your own uncertainty of quarterback,
Speaker 1: Week eighteam kind of sucks, huh, Like you never know
Speaker 1: what's gonna happen, Like I can't. Picking the games this
Speaker 1: week is gonna be hard to because who the hell's
Speaker 1: playing like? It's tough. It's always a fun matchup. I
Speaker 1: think it certainly changes drastically depending on who we start.
Speaker 1: The Big Three versus the Jets defense, run the ball wide.
Speaker 1: That never changes, going back to the first matchup in
Speaker 1: October of twenty twenty two, since McDaniel got here against
Speaker 1: Robert Sala. That will change next year because it won't
Speaker 1: be the same defense, but you get it. You'll recall
Speaker 1: that as the game where Teddy was removed after getting
Speaker 1: sacked and tagged with intentional grounding on a play that
Speaker 1: was not intentional grounding, and we were in scoring range,
Speaker 1: down by a point in the fourth quarter with Scalar
Speaker 1: Thompson in the game, but we dropped a Tanner Conor
Speaker 1: pass and then missed a field goal and the game
Speaker 1: got totally off the rails. We did go for over
Speaker 1: one hundred and fifty yards on the ground in that game.
Speaker 1: Prior to the game this year, we were averaging one
Speaker 1: hundred and thirty seven yards on the ground in the
Speaker 1: four meetings against these guys and two of those games
Speaker 1: where the backup quarterbacks could be a third here two
Speaker 1: was only played five games against the Jets. That kind
Speaker 1: of crazy, like that's kind of an indictment of his
Speaker 1: injury history. But you know, something else to talk about
Speaker 1: for different day. We only had forty four on the
Speaker 1: ground in the game back in week fourteen, But the
Speaker 1: fact remains the same. You set up your entire offense
Speaker 1: with that initial outside zone concept right Hell, in the
Speaker 1: Browns game, we go outside zone, wide screen, outside zone
Speaker 1: to start the game, and you saw it influence the
Speaker 1: Browns linebackers on first downs for literally the next four
Speaker 1: or five drives of that game. Tyreek got single coverage
Speaker 1: and caught all nine of his targets because of that space,
Speaker 1: because of how they opted to defend us and defend
Speaker 1: Snoop Huntley. It's a stylistic you hear sometimes from analyst.
Speaker 1: You know, Team AS actually a good matchup for Team B,
Speaker 1: even if Team AS the superior team. It's because of
Speaker 1: things like this. Their scheme plays one gap upfield. They
Speaker 1: stress your gaps and our ability to get the ball
Speaker 1: around the corner. It just bodes well when we can
Speaker 1: pin them in on those on those immediate penetration attempts.
Speaker 1: It doesn't hurt again that they have two cornerbacks who
Speaker 1: I think, in this game more than any game of
Speaker 1: their career, will have no interest in making tackles off
Speaker 1: the edge, and safeties who don't really come from depth
Speaker 1: all that well, I think you could see I wrote
Speaker 1: this for a week fourteen. I think you could see
Speaker 1: a lot of business decisions getting made up there for
Speaker 1: the New York Jets on Sunday. And it's not just
Speaker 1: the Dolphins. The Jets' two highest rushing totals allowed this year.
Speaker 1: They've allowed more than one fifty on the ground twice
Speaker 1: this year was the Niners on Opening Night for one
Speaker 1: eighty and the Texans for a buck eighty seven back
Speaker 1: on Halloween. Any idea who those play cars are? Kyle
Speaker 1: Shanahan and Bobby Slowick. Now, this is a good test
Speaker 1: of where I feel like we are sorely lacking and
Speaker 1: where the run game has kind of gone away this year.
Speaker 1: You know, Austin jaff was a big difference maker right tackle.
Speaker 1: We haven't really had a true why that was a
Speaker 1: plus blocker aside from some Julian Hill glimpses here and there.
Speaker 1: So I think there's something to be said about getting
Speaker 1: that production without having that Still near the top of
Speaker 1: my offseason shopping list. By the way, and watching Tyler
Speaker 1: Warren makes me think that we should pick him, but
Speaker 1: I digress. I think runs off the left side, whether
Speaker 1: it's Paul or Testead, those Aaron Brewer poles into space,
Speaker 1: Julian Hill on those rap blocks, and our wideouts in
Speaker 1: the blocking game, I think we go four deep at
Speaker 1: running back to hit those runs, to get our yards
Speaker 1: and influence the defense. And I think we saw last
Speaker 1: week Devon a Chan kind of got his role decrease
Speaker 1: in the second and third quarter of that game. I
Speaker 1: think that you're starting to kind of get some internal
Speaker 1: scouting about lack of vision and the fact that he's
Speaker 1: leaving yards on the field by not banging it in
Speaker 1: there and as opposed to trying to hit home runs
Speaker 1: every single rep. I think you might see more of
Speaker 1: that on Sunday, a deeper rotation with more raheem Moster
Speaker 1: and please give twenty five to the ball. I want
Speaker 1: to see Dylan Wright touch the football. He's a very
Speaker 1: special player. It's no coincidence to me that are one
Speaker 1: hundred and ninety three season leading rushing day came on
Speaker 1: a day where a Chan got knocked out in the
Speaker 1: first drive of the game and right played his biggest role.
Speaker 1: And then our second biggest rushing day was the following
Speaker 1: game when Jalen Wright had his second biggest rushing role
Speaker 1: against the Indianapolis Colts.
Speaker 2: Key number two exploit the space wherever it is.
Speaker 1: Back in Week fourteen, I expected one thing and got
Speaker 1: something entirely different. Now this presents even another conundrum with
Speaker 1: the uncertainty at quarterback. Do you change what you do
Speaker 1: against Huntley because of how different he is from Tua
Speaker 1: more zone, which is not your bread and butter, or
Speaker 1: do you stick with man coverage and risk the runs
Speaker 1: from the quarterback because their pass rush has really struggled
Speaker 1: this year, and we saw what Snoop can do when
Speaker 1: you don't get to him and you're in man coverage,
Speaker 1: he can run for a big explosive plays. Then if
Speaker 1: it's Tua, more of the same baby. If they want
Speaker 1: to play off and he has no issues going after
Speaker 1: that space, then do it. But if they creep up,
Speaker 1: it sounds like, you know, we should be getting waddled
Speaker 1: back for this game. You know, we saw in twenty
Speaker 1: twenty three. How both he and Riek got vertical on
Speaker 1: this team multiple times. So take what they present tail
Speaker 1: as old as time right attrition. Unlike any other typically speaking,
Speaker 1: they want to disrupt and challenge you with their cornerbacks.
Speaker 1: With Sauce if he plays, I don't think he will.
Speaker 1: But even if it's Brandon Eckles, they like playing the
Speaker 1: same style of football when he's out there too, So
Speaker 1: those things you know, Sauce probably out at the hamstring
Speaker 1: even if he plays with it. I mean, I cannot
Speaker 1: think of a worse injury to play when you have
Speaker 1: to face Tyreek Hill than a hamstring injury. But it's
Speaker 1: their play style, so I think they will do that.
Speaker 1: You remember the Black Friday game, like those two third
Speaker 1: and shorts to start the game and one starts the
Speaker 1: second half, and then of course Wattle in the second
Speaker 1: half or the second game against the Jets sixty yards
Speaker 1: over DJ Reid, Like, if they.
Speaker 2: Want to play that way, we have the weapons to
Speaker 2: go after him.
Speaker 1: They'll also condense those guys inside and play the slot
Speaker 1: one on one and I think two was best throws
Speaker 1: the slot fade again that big play to Wattle against
Speaker 1: the Patriots earlier this year, the ones against the Lions.
Speaker 1: A couple of years ago, he hit it against the
Speaker 1: Jets to Wattle a couple or last year. They'll kick
Speaker 1: Michael Carter to the perimeter and have those guys run
Speaker 1: with us. If it's third and four, they'll tilt. They'll
Speaker 1: tilt help to one side, so you can throw that
Speaker 1: X fade or the slot fade against one on one coverage.
Speaker 1: So I think you'll see that a few times and
Speaker 1: hopefully we can hit one or two of those to
Speaker 1: top all this off. I think this is a game
Speaker 1: where they have to focus on our backs and tight
Speaker 1: ends to trust and trust their cornerbacks to beat us.
Speaker 1: Regardless of who it is. Both safeties are more box players.
Speaker 1: Mills a converted cornerback who loves to play the slot
Speaker 1: and head hunt as the robber. And then Chuck Clark
Speaker 1: was kind of an enforcer for a few weeks that
Speaker 1: he was healthy, but he's back on ir and Ashton
Speaker 1: Davis doesn't really seem to know where he's going in coverage.
Speaker 1: So that's a guy to go after in this game
Speaker 1: as well. Let's go ahead and take our last break
Speaker 1: right there. Come back on the other side do key three,
Speaker 1: we'll do the key to the game in general, we'll
Speaker 1: pick the game and get the heck out of here.
Speaker 1: Draft Time Podcast your host Travis Wingfield, brought to you
Speaker 1: by Auto Nation. The third key for the Dolphins offense
Speaker 1: against the Jets defense be it to be it Snoop
Speaker 1: Huntley is just Quinn Williams, Hassan Reddick, and Will McDonald.
Speaker 1: Their rush used to be comprised of a super deep rotation.
Speaker 1: It would filter guys in, keep them fresh, and just
Speaker 1: kept coming wave after wave until they broke you down
Speaker 1: late in games. See the twenty twenty two game. Hassan
Speaker 1: Reddick was their big ticket free agent and they swapped
Speaker 1: him out for Bryce Huff, but Reddick held out half
Speaker 1: the year and then their owner or was it their coach,
Speaker 1: Their owner said he's one of the least selfish players
Speaker 1: he's ever been around. That's an interesting dichotomy. But he
Speaker 1: hasn't done anything this year. Quentin Jefferson and John Frankly
Speaker 1: Meyers are both gone, but they still have impact players.
Speaker 1: It's just not as deep as it once was. In fact,
Speaker 1: Will McDonald is a good player, but he got blanked
Speaker 1: in the last game by was a tea Saer. Patrick
Speaker 1: Paul can't remember this point, but he rushes almost exclusively
Speaker 1: off the offense has left. I think it's a matchup
Speaker 1: that Pat Paul can win, quite frankly. I mean, he
Speaker 1: did not a great job on Miles Garrett, but he
Speaker 1: had some good reps. And then I think that allows
Speaker 1: you to help inside with chips and doubles on Quinn
Speaker 1: Williams because after a slow start, he has kind of
Speaker 1: come on, although he's kind of fallen back off again.
Speaker 1: We'll see what you get on from him on Sunday.
Speaker 2: Again.
Speaker 1: I think this Jets team kind of lays down for you,
Speaker 1: to be quite frank but this also tracks back to
Speaker 1: the first key. I think both of their play styles
Speaker 1: are part of what invites the run game in this matchup,
Speaker 1: but when they get to obvious pass downs, you have
Speaker 1: to have an answer for guys like this. Right Luckily,
Speaker 1: I think Brewer has stabilized things and he can essentially
Speaker 1: pick out which side Q goes to and help on
Speaker 1: that side or whichever guard that he rushes over, and
Speaker 1: then on runs with wham action where you can basically
Speaker 1: invite him upfield and take him out of the play
Speaker 1: by just having him outrun it or you know, split
Speaker 1: flow all the stuff where you get wide and leave
Speaker 1: upfield penetrators unaccounted for. I think you can scheme him
Speaker 1: out of some of the stuff that you do that way,
Speaker 1: as the Dolphins have kind of done in these Jets matchups.
Speaker 1: So big day for our two best upfront going up
Speaker 1: against their two best. Whether it's whether you know it's
Speaker 1: Tea Stead, I guess he's part of the best. But
Speaker 1: whether it's Pat or Teestead or Brewer against Quinn Williams,
Speaker 1: like that's that's.
Speaker 2: The key matchup here.
Speaker 1: I just want to mention Jamie and Sherwood one more
Speaker 1: time because he has been CJ. Moseley's replacement and he
Speaker 1: has very got that dog in him. Like he flies
Speaker 1: all over the field. He's fast as hell. He hits,
Speaker 1: he covers, he rushes, does a little bit of everything.
Speaker 1: Just keep an eye on Jamie and sure would what's
Speaker 1: at stake. There is absolutely no point in doing what's
Speaker 1: at stake this week. You know, win the game, get
Speaker 1: a Chiefs win, and you're in the playoffs. Anything else,
Speaker 1: you're not in the playoffs range of outcomes. Even without Tua,
Speaker 1: I don't think there's a scenario where Miami loses this game.
Speaker 1: This is a team that's on Cabo mode with Tua.
Speaker 1: I think it's thirty one to fourteen without Tua. I
Speaker 1: think it is probably like it was last week, a
Speaker 1: little bit closer to the vest. They probably can score
Speaker 1: once or twice. That makes it a bit of a
Speaker 1: nail bier down the stretch, But I think they can
Speaker 1: find a way to grind out a victory. Seventeen to fourteen.
Speaker 1: If it is snoop in this game. Keys to victory.
Speaker 1: Get playmakers on the perimeter. Go after those cornerbacks that
Speaker 1: are not interested in playing, whether it's your running backs,
Speaker 1: your receivers, or tight ends. Get the ball on the perimeter.
Speaker 1: Number two put pressure constantly on Aaron Rodgers. Make the
Speaker 1: old man quit the game like he has multiple times
Speaker 1: this year. And Number three slowed down Garrett Wilson and
Speaker 1: Devonte Adams. They ate your lunch last time. Hey, don't
Speaker 1: let that happen again. Let's go ahead and get the
Speaker 1: heck out of here. You all, please be sure dribe
Speaker 1: to the show, leave us a rating, and leave us
Speaker 1: a review. Follow me on social at Wingfield NFL. The
Speaker 1: team at Miami Dolphins check out the Fish Tank Podcast
Speaker 1: with my guys, Sethan Juice, the YouTube channel for a
Speaker 1: brand new episode of Dolphins HQ, extra media availabilities, and
Speaker 1: much much more up there as well, and last but
Speaker 1: not least, Miami Dolphins dot com. Until next time, fins Up,
Speaker 1: Come on, Cameron, Daddy just come home.