WEBVTT - Lost in Space 0:00:01.880 --> 0:00:05.520 Hey, they're folks, say, real life Gilligan's Island is playing 0:00:05.559 --> 0:00:09.719 out in space right now. Two astronauts were supposed to 0:00:09.720 --> 0:00:13.600 be in orbit eight days. As we speak, it's been 0:00:13.760 --> 0:00:18.160 two months and still unclear on when they might come home. Folks, 0:00:18.160 --> 0:00:20.880 welcome to this episode of Amy and TJ. Rhodes. I'm 0:00:20.880 --> 0:00:25.120 always and we're always fascinated by space stuff. We're always 0:00:25.160 --> 0:00:27.040 in awe of it. But this time we were kind 0:00:27.040 --> 0:00:29.280 of all scratching our heads and trying to figure out 0:00:29.320 --> 0:00:31.319 what went wrong and when can they come home. 0:00:31.400 --> 0:00:35.400 I'm still laughing at your Gilligan's Island reference three hour tour. 0:00:35.640 --> 0:00:37.840 There's supposed to be an eight day tour. 0:00:37.720 --> 0:00:39.839 But it turns possibly into an eight month too. 0:00:40.000 --> 0:00:44.240 Yeah, whoa, it seems indefinite and a lot of people 0:00:44.280 --> 0:00:47.360 familiar with this story. But two astronauts went up in June, 0:00:47.560 --> 0:00:49.760 supposed to be eight days orbiting. Something's wrong with the 0:00:49.840 --> 0:00:53.480 orbiter that they're in, the craft they're in, so they're 0:00:53.560 --> 0:00:54.440 kind of stranded. 0:00:54.560 --> 0:00:57.440 Yeah, what I got was some thrusters weren't working, some 0:00:57.600 --> 0:01:00.600 helium was leaking. I don't know what any of that means, 0:01:00.600 --> 0:01:03.800 but none of it sounds good. And there's a question 0:01:03.840 --> 0:01:07.440 as to whether or not that vehicle that they arrived 0:01:07.440 --> 0:01:10.440 at the International Space Station in can actually take them 0:01:10.560 --> 0:01:13.960 back to Earth safely. And so because there is a 0:01:14.040 --> 0:01:19.680 question mark, and I'm sure the astronauts appreciate that scientists, astrophysicists, 0:01:19.720 --> 0:01:22.560 folks at NASA, folks at Boeing are all making sure 0:01:23.600 --> 0:01:26.240 that their safety is at the top of the list. 0:01:26.319 --> 0:01:30.360 So how do they get back home in one piece? No, 0:01:30.440 --> 0:01:31.920 you can't, there's not yet, and. 0:01:31.880 --> 0:01:32.679 There's a long wait. 0:01:33.360 --> 0:01:35.040 There is right now. 0:01:34.920 --> 0:01:36.800 And it's cramped quarters, we should point out. 0:01:36.840 --> 0:01:39.600 So the International Space Station, upon my big research that 0:01:39.640 --> 0:01:43.199 I've done this morning, is usually there to accommodate about 0:01:43.200 --> 0:01:45.920 six people, six to seven at the most. Now there 0:01:45.959 --> 0:01:49.920 are I believe nine people there. Wow, so there's some 0:01:49.960 --> 0:01:55.320 sleeping quarter issues. They just got a supply truck, which 0:01:55.320 --> 0:01:55.840 made me laugh. 0:01:55.880 --> 0:01:59.200 It's not a truck, but they actually I was amazed. 0:01:58.880 --> 0:02:02.920 They actually sense apply missions up to them. So they 0:02:02.960 --> 0:02:04.720 needed some new clothes. I mean, this is all new 0:02:04.760 --> 0:02:06.840 to me, but it's it sounds like a movie, but 0:02:06.920 --> 0:02:08.680 it's happening in real time, in real life. 0:02:08.720 --> 0:02:10.520 I didn't see that part about it. We've all been 0:02:10.560 --> 0:02:14.680 there before on vacation or somebody's house. It's it's sleep 0:02:14.800 --> 0:02:17.639 it's a four bedroom house. But seven people are we 0:02:17.720 --> 0:02:18.400 going to figure this out? 0:02:18.480 --> 0:02:20.320 Or how many times have you been on vacation and 0:02:20.360 --> 0:02:22.280 you get called to go to work to like a 0:02:22.360 --> 0:02:25.600 work event, and you don't have enough clothes, you. 0:02:25.560 --> 0:02:27.359 Don't have enough underwear, you don't have enough socks. 0:02:27.840 --> 0:02:30.120 That's happened. We're talking like a few days. This is 0:02:30.200 --> 0:02:31.119 like months and months. 0:02:31.280 --> 0:02:33.239 They have a couch, there's so many crash on the 0:02:33.280 --> 0:02:33.920 no and they. 0:02:33.800 --> 0:02:37.200 Don't have a washer or a dryer, so there's no laundry. 0:02:37.280 --> 0:02:38.799 There's a lot of things going on. 0:02:39.560 --> 0:02:42.320 I'm thinking a damn about their laundry right now. 0:02:43.080 --> 0:02:45.520 They might care more than you think. I mean, it's 0:02:45.560 --> 0:02:46.080 an issue. 0:02:46.520 --> 0:02:49.400 Well, that's bringing into somebody. Clearly we need help understanding 0:02:49.400 --> 0:02:51.160 what the hell is going on. So let's bring in 0:02:51.240 --> 0:02:54.799 somebody who knows it. He's actually an astrophysicist. He's an astronomer, 0:02:55.360 --> 0:02:58.880 a Smithsonian astronomer, Johnathan McDowell is with us now. So 0:02:59.080 --> 0:03:02.639 we appreciate you helping us out with what's We tried 0:03:02.680 --> 0:03:04.520 to go through the story a little bit, and a 0:03:04.520 --> 0:03:06.320 lot of people are familiar with it, but can you 0:03:06.440 --> 0:03:12.480 tell us, first of all, they plan for contingencies like 0:03:12.560 --> 0:03:16.440 this or is this something that nobody necessarily had a 0:03:16.520 --> 0:03:18.600 plan for in a scenario for well, I. 0:03:18.520 --> 0:03:20.280 Think it's a bit of a surprise, but it's within 0:03:20.440 --> 0:03:22.840 the scope of what you know. That's that's it is 0:03:22.880 --> 0:03:25.640 all about what happens if this failure, what happens if 0:03:25.680 --> 0:03:28.200 the next failure? And so so they're they're they're pretty 0:03:28.320 --> 0:03:31.000 they go pretty deep into what do we do if 0:03:32.160 --> 0:03:33.720 By the way, I just say, I I do love 0:03:33.760 --> 0:03:36.120 the Gilligans Island comparison. I had not thought of that. 0:03:36.200 --> 0:03:37.040 And it's perfect. 0:03:37.880 --> 0:03:38.960 You can have it, you can use it. 0:03:40.200 --> 0:03:45.520 Yea, yeah, so so uh so yeah, so so they 0:03:45.520 --> 0:03:48.000 have this space ship, the Starliner, and you know, it's 0:03:48.000 --> 0:03:50.920 had a bit of a rocky history. The the test 0:03:50.960 --> 0:03:53.840 flights without a crew didn't go that brilliantly, and so 0:03:53.920 --> 0:03:56.480 they were really hoping that this one would just be flawless. 0:03:56.960 --> 0:03:59.280 But no, well, Jonathan, wait a second, you can't just 0:03:59.320 --> 0:04:01.640 hope when we're talking talk about sending people up. You're 0:04:01.640 --> 0:04:07.200 telling me this thing had enough issues, then maybe we 0:04:07.200 --> 0:04:08.560 shouldn't have sent them up in that thing in the 0:04:08.560 --> 0:04:09.040 first place. 0:04:09.200 --> 0:04:10.640 No, No, I don't think so, I mean, I think 0:04:10.680 --> 0:04:13.600 they thought they had solved the issues right and they 0:04:13.600 --> 0:04:16.520 were wrong. But you know, they had done tests on 0:04:16.560 --> 0:04:20.440 the ground. They had not, it turns out, fully understood 0:04:20.839 --> 0:04:24.039 the issues with these thrusters. So let's talk about these thrusters, right, 0:04:24.440 --> 0:04:27.279 is what they are. They're little rocket engines. They're not 0:04:27.320 --> 0:04:29.440 the big rocket engines that the spaceship is going to 0:04:29.520 --> 0:04:32.520 use to push itself out of orbit and land in 0:04:32.560 --> 0:04:36.279 New Mexico. They're kind of like the steering wheel, right, 0:04:36.760 --> 0:04:39.800 and so they helped turn the spacecraft in a particular direction. 0:04:40.360 --> 0:04:42.680 And that's got to work right when you're coming home 0:04:42.720 --> 0:04:45.159 because you can have the big thrusters. The big rocket 0:04:45.160 --> 0:04:47.520 engines work fine, but if you're not pointed in the 0:04:47.560 --> 0:04:49.440 right direction, that's not going to go well for you. 0:04:50.279 --> 0:04:54.080 And so so these steering thrusters are really important. They're 0:04:54.080 --> 0:04:56.640 also really important when you separate from the space station 0:04:57.440 --> 0:05:00.320 and you're backing away. You don't want to bump in 0:05:00.320 --> 0:05:03.440 to your friend's lab module or something like that. So 0:05:04.440 --> 0:05:07.560 you really want these things to be working right. And 0:05:07.880 --> 0:05:10.280 you know they have some what we call redundancy. They 0:05:10.320 --> 0:05:12.680 have spares, right, and so you know they have I 0:05:12.720 --> 0:05:14.520 don't know what, I can't remember. It's like twenty or 0:05:14.560 --> 0:05:16.560 something frusters, and if you know, three or four of 0:05:16.560 --> 0:05:20.680 them fail, okay, they can use other ones. But they're 0:05:20.839 --> 0:05:25.320 just worried because they don't understand quite why the thrusters 0:05:25.320 --> 0:05:27.000 have been behaving the way they have. So on the 0:05:27.000 --> 0:05:30.440 way up, they were approaching the space station and everything 0:05:30.560 --> 0:05:32.839 was going fine. And then as they started firing the 0:05:32.839 --> 0:05:35.840 thrusts a lot, as they were steering their way in 0:05:36.440 --> 0:05:39.640 to the docking port to the arrival place at the 0:05:39.640 --> 0:05:43.520 space station, a couple of the thrusters stopped working and 0:05:44.040 --> 0:05:46.040 things started going wrong, and so they had to do 0:05:46.080 --> 0:05:49.880 some sort of fancy last minute adjustments to get in safely. 0:05:50.400 --> 0:05:54.040 And and so you know, fine, so you look at 0:05:54.120 --> 0:05:56.440 you do lots of tests, and so they've done tests 0:05:56.440 --> 0:06:01.080 on the ground to fire these thrusters, and they're studying 0:06:01.080 --> 0:06:03.159 a bit more detail what happens when you fire them 0:06:03.360 --> 0:06:06.840 more than usual. It turns out that in the particular 0:06:06.880 --> 0:06:09.680 configuration it's in. Yeah, if you fire them too much 0:06:09.760 --> 0:06:12.680 too often, it overheats and bad things happen. And so 0:06:12.680 --> 0:06:15.600 they got some kind of understanding, but they still don't 0:06:15.680 --> 0:06:20.120 quite understand why it is that they're behaving exactly the 0:06:20.160 --> 0:06:22.239 way they see. They did some more tests on orbit. 0:06:22.279 --> 0:06:24.479 They said, got okay, stay docked to the space station, 0:06:24.839 --> 0:06:27.479 but give a little sprints on the thrusters. Check. Let's 0:06:27.560 --> 0:06:31.160 check how they're behaving. They seem to be behaving just fine. Now, 0:06:31.600 --> 0:06:33.880 even the ones, most of the ones that were broken before, 0:06:34.040 --> 0:06:38.040 seem to be okay. And so the Boeing folks who 0:06:38.040 --> 0:06:40.640 built the spaceship is safety as we think it's fine, 0:06:40.760 --> 0:06:44.520 bring them home. Uh. And then some of the nast 0:06:44.600 --> 0:06:49.360 engineers are going, yeah, but you know, we don't understand 0:06:49.520 --> 0:06:52.920 why these these thrusters are acting up the way they are, 0:06:53.360 --> 0:06:56.520 and so what if when we fire them, they, you know, 0:06:56.680 --> 0:07:00.400 something else happens that that that hasn't happen before, and 0:07:00.400 --> 0:07:02.760 we lose a whole bunch of them. That would be 0:07:02.800 --> 0:07:07.520 really bad. It seems unlikely. But because you don't understand 0:07:07.520 --> 0:07:10.240 what's going wrong. And here's the thing, if they didn't 0:07:10.240 --> 0:07:13.880 have another way to come home, right, they would go like, yeah, fine, 0:07:13.920 --> 0:07:16.640 well we don't quite understand what's going on, but it's 0:07:16.680 --> 0:07:19.000 probably okay, so let's just bring them home. It should 0:07:19.000 --> 0:07:21.480 be fine. But because they have this other. 0:07:21.360 --> 0:07:23.160 Choice, better safe than sorry. 0:07:23.200 --> 0:07:26.880 Basically, that's right, but sometimes it's like worse to have 0:07:26.920 --> 0:07:29.960 a choice, right, because now you go, yeah, all right, well, 0:07:30.040 --> 0:07:33.600 so we could do this other convoluted thing of bringing 0:07:33.640 --> 0:07:38.960 them home on the SpaceX uber and you know call 0:07:39.000 --> 0:07:43.000 an uber. Well, they've already got a SpaceX ship docked there, 0:07:43.040 --> 0:07:46.040 but you know that has a crew who don't want 0:07:46.040 --> 0:07:49.800 to give up their seats. So there's another crew waiting 0:07:49.840 --> 0:07:54.000 to come up in September. And so the idea is, well, okay, 0:07:54.240 --> 0:07:58.320 so bump to people from that crew and have it 0:07:58.360 --> 0:08:01.560 come up and arrive at the space station in September, 0:08:03.320 --> 0:08:05.480 and you could you could then go all right and 0:08:05.520 --> 0:08:08.240 then bring the guys home right away on that. But 0:08:08.320 --> 0:08:11.840 they've said, well, you know, but it's expensive. So let's 0:08:11.880 --> 0:08:15.920 make poor Butcher and Sonny take the places of those 0:08:16.000 --> 0:08:19.200 bumped to crew members and do their jobs for another 0:08:19.240 --> 0:08:22.040 few months and not bring them home until the original 0:08:22.080 --> 0:08:27.120 planned Crew nine landing time of February. And so, congratulations, guys, 0:08:27.120 --> 0:08:29.200 you've just got to pointed to a new crew and 0:08:30.040 --> 0:08:31.800 you've got a few more months on the space. 0:08:31.760 --> 0:08:32.559 A lot more months. 0:08:32.720 --> 0:08:36.280 I'm curious do the astronauts themselves have any say in 0:08:36.360 --> 0:08:38.160 this or is this all Are they at the mercy 0:08:38.200 --> 0:08:40.920 of NASA, Are at the mercy of Boeing? Or do 0:08:41.559 --> 0:08:44.080 they get to say, hey, we'll take our chances and 0:08:44.120 --> 0:08:45.120 try and come home early. 0:08:45.920 --> 0:08:50.559 Yeah. Typically, right, well, it's it's NASA's call. They work 0:08:50.640 --> 0:08:55.040 for NASA. But they, you know, the NASA what they 0:08:55.080 --> 0:08:59.400 call the control board or the decision board, consults with 0:08:59.480 --> 0:09:01.320 the actional Hey what do you think of this? Do 0:09:01.360 --> 0:09:06.439 you have concerns whatever, So they'll take they'll take the astronauts' concerns, 0:09:07.400 --> 0:09:10.960 you know, into hand. But but yeah, you're an astronaut, 0:09:11.000 --> 0:09:13.040 you want another flight, you know, you don't want to 0:09:13.040 --> 0:09:17.000 be labeled as the whip and so it's gonna be 0:09:17.040 --> 0:09:21.720 a high bar before you say no, can you bring 0:09:21.760 --> 0:09:24.240 me home in the safeway place? So now their their 0:09:24.280 --> 0:09:28.240 their their instinctive response is gonna be, oh, well, we're 0:09:28.360 --> 0:09:31.200 ready to you know, to do this. I'm sure you 0:09:31.200 --> 0:09:33.480 guys know what you're doing, So just make the right 0:09:33.520 --> 0:09:34.160 engineering call. 0:09:34.240 --> 0:09:36.000 But Jonathan, how does that work? Can you help us 0:09:36.040 --> 0:09:37.880 with the astronauts. I know they go through all kinds 0:09:37.920 --> 0:09:40.120 of extensive training, but if you're telling me I'm on 0:09:40.120 --> 0:09:41.680 an eight day trip and then I'm up here for 0:09:41.720 --> 0:09:44.240 eight or nine months. I mean, how are they do 0:09:44.320 --> 0:09:47.920 they get prepped mentally psychologically for this type of thing. 0:09:48.000 --> 0:09:50.200 I mean, that's a that's not just a couple of 0:09:50.360 --> 0:09:53.480 weeks delay or days delay. That's that's almost a year 0:09:53.520 --> 0:09:54.840 of your life when you thought you're going to be 0:09:54.840 --> 0:09:55.320 back in a week. 0:09:55.360 --> 0:09:57.520 Miss anniversary, is miss Christmas? All of that. 0:09:58.480 --> 0:10:01.960 That's right, I mean, I I it is hard. They 0:10:02.040 --> 0:10:04.920 have you know, they knew that the contingencies that could 0:10:05.040 --> 0:10:07.920 let them be on the station longer than eight days, 0:10:07.960 --> 0:10:10.760 So I think the idea that they might stay a 0:10:10.760 --> 0:10:13.920 few weeks would have been in their minds. Anyway, I 0:10:14.080 --> 0:10:16.240 don't think they were expecting it to be this long 0:10:16.720 --> 0:10:19.720 and so and so you're right, it is, you know, 0:10:20.000 --> 0:10:22.000 missing missing holidays with your family and so on. It 0:10:22.360 --> 0:10:25.200 is tough. Now, these are experienced astronauts. They have done 0:10:25.559 --> 0:10:29.040 you know, longery Sonny Williams was commander the ISS for 0:10:29.040 --> 0:10:31.760 a while and so on. So so they you know, 0:10:32.240 --> 0:10:37.680 this is not new to them. It's unexpected. But yeah, 0:10:37.760 --> 0:10:40.760 they're they're tough, they're they they can they can handle it. 0:10:40.800 --> 0:10:43.040 So I think, and you know, for National you're getting 0:10:43.080 --> 0:10:47.160 more flight time, breaking certain records. I think it's gonna 0:10:48.200 --> 0:10:50.280 you know, you're like, you know, you get to take 0:10:50.320 --> 0:10:52.959 off a few extra things of like, yeah, I'm the 0:10:53.000 --> 0:10:56.600 American nationronaut who spent you know, longest in this and 0:10:56.720 --> 0:11:00.920 so yeah, they're actually you know, there are pol them 0:11:01.000 --> 0:11:02.760 for this and career wise, and. 0:11:02.720 --> 0:11:06.319 So I'm curious is there anything dangerous about what they're doing? 0:11:06.360 --> 0:11:10.280 I saw somewhere someone saying something about radiation exposure. I mean, 0:11:10.320 --> 0:11:12.920 is there any danger to being in space that long 0:11:13.000 --> 0:11:14.480 or being at the station that long? 0:11:15.480 --> 0:11:19.120 Really not. I mean that there's some accumulated radiation exposure, 0:11:19.160 --> 0:11:21.000 but that's true even if you go on like a 0:11:21.040 --> 0:11:25.200 transatlantic plane flight, right, And so you know, we've had 0:11:25.240 --> 0:11:29.280 astronauts stay up for years at a time, right, Scott 0:11:29.360 --> 0:11:31.520 Kelly did. This is a year and a half mission 0:11:31.520 --> 0:11:34.360 on the Space station. So it's not like they're doing 0:11:34.360 --> 0:11:37.360 anything that other people haven't done before in that respect, 0:11:38.080 --> 0:11:40.200 And so I'm not concerned about that. I mean, having 0:11:40.280 --> 0:11:44.160 said that being in space is not the safest place 0:11:44.200 --> 0:11:46.600 to be in general, right, there's always something that can 0:11:46.600 --> 0:11:49.120 go wrong, But if you're in space, being on the 0:11:49.160 --> 0:11:52.120 Space station with all its resources and all the monitoring 0:11:52.200 --> 0:11:54.280 so on, that that's that's about as safe as you're 0:11:54.320 --> 0:11:58.000 going to be while you're in space. And so it's 0:11:58.040 --> 0:12:03.679 the launch and the landing that are always the scary bits. 0:12:09.000 --> 0:12:10.720 We're talking about the thrusters here, but there is a 0:12:10.760 --> 0:12:13.240 helium link that they were aware of. Is that right 0:12:13.320 --> 0:12:16.360 before they even launch? Can you help us understand how 0:12:16.360 --> 0:12:18.719 important of a matter that is and why if you 0:12:18.800 --> 0:12:21.280 knew about this problem, why you still would go ahead 0:12:21.520 --> 0:12:22.000 and launch? 0:12:22.960 --> 0:12:25.960 Right, I'm not too concerned about it. So the helium 0:12:26.080 --> 0:12:28.840 is used. They have high pressure helium tanks and what 0:12:28.880 --> 0:12:32.600 they do is they use that to push the fuel 0:12:32.800 --> 0:12:36.960 into the rocket engine. Because you know, on Earth, right, 0:12:37.000 --> 0:12:40.280 we use gravity to like, you know, push things into 0:12:40.280 --> 0:12:41.880 where we want to go. But they don't have the gravity, 0:12:41.920 --> 0:12:45.400 so they use another gas and high pressure to push 0:12:45.520 --> 0:12:48.079 the fuel into where it's going to ignite in the 0:12:48.160 --> 0:12:51.719 rocket engine. And the trouble with helium is helium is 0:12:51.760 --> 0:12:55.200 a tiny atom. It loves to leak out of things, 0:12:56.080 --> 0:12:59.920 and so helium leaks are like if you work with heal, 0:13:00.240 --> 0:13:02.440 helium leaks are part of your life. There's always going 0:13:02.520 --> 0:13:04.160 to be helium leak. The question is how big is 0:13:04.200 --> 0:13:07.439 it going to be? And so this was a bit 0:13:07.520 --> 0:13:12.280 bigger leak than they designed for, but it's still pretty small, okay, 0:13:12.360 --> 0:13:15.280 and they still got plenty of helium, and so it 0:13:15.360 --> 0:13:18.240 doesn't you know. The worry is is that leak a 0:13:18.360 --> 0:13:20.720 sign of something that's about to give that then would 0:13:20.760 --> 0:13:22.360 give you a huge helium leak, and the all the 0:13:22.440 --> 0:13:23.920 helium would leak out, you wouldn't be able to use 0:13:23.920 --> 0:13:25.160 the rocket engines. That would be bad. 0:13:25.240 --> 0:13:28.080 But Jonathan, how can they figure this out from the 0:13:28.320 --> 0:13:30.600 like all these problems. I know they have diagnostics and 0:13:30.640 --> 0:13:32.480 things they can run, But can you ever get to 0:13:32.520 --> 0:13:36.240 a point where you're comfortable enough this from on Earth 0:13:36.800 --> 0:13:38.439 saying yeah, go ahead and hop in that thing and 0:13:38.480 --> 0:13:40.000 come on back. It's good to go. I mean, how 0:13:40.040 --> 0:13:42.960 can you ever reach that bar? It seems like a 0:13:43.040 --> 0:13:43.439 high bar. 0:13:44.200 --> 0:13:47.200 It is a high bar. Yeah, but it's doable. I mean, 0:13:47.280 --> 0:13:48.880 I think you know what you do, right, is you 0:13:48.960 --> 0:13:51.040 have all of like you said, have all these diagnostics. Right. 0:13:51.080 --> 0:13:53.199 You know the pressure in the tank, you know how 0:13:53.200 --> 0:13:55.800 it behaves it when you do certain things, and then 0:13:55.840 --> 0:13:59.120 you replicate that on the ground. And if you can 0:13:59.240 --> 0:14:03.120 make a setup on the ground that misbehaves exactly the 0:14:03.160 --> 0:14:06.160 same way that the thing in space is misbehaving, right, 0:14:06.280 --> 0:14:09.680 then you go, ah, right, we understand why this is 0:14:09.720 --> 0:14:12.319 happening now, and then and then you go and then 0:14:12.360 --> 0:14:15.080 you can go once you understand it, then you can go, 0:14:15.080 --> 0:14:16.640 all right, what's the worst that could happen? 0:14:16.800 --> 0:14:19.200 And so right now they don't understand it, and they've 0:14:19.280 --> 0:14:21.720 said in the next week or two they're going to 0:14:21.760 --> 0:14:23.720 make a final call by the end of this month. 0:14:23.840 --> 0:14:25.960 So what are they That's what they're doing right now 0:14:25.960 --> 0:14:28.920 on the ground, they're replicating what the potential problem is 0:14:28.960 --> 0:14:31.600 to try and understand it. And only if they understand 0:14:31.680 --> 0:14:33.960 it then will they send those astronauts back in that 0:14:34.040 --> 0:14:35.720 same craft. 0:14:36.280 --> 0:14:38.400 That's right, Well, I think only if they have enough 0:14:38.440 --> 0:14:41.800 confidence that they understand it well enough to rule out 0:14:41.960 --> 0:14:45.000 some horrible thing happening. And it's a bit it's a 0:14:45.000 --> 0:14:47.960 hard bar, right, because it's it's not like we're not 0:14:48.000 --> 0:14:50.640 in the situation where we go, okay, this part is 0:14:50.680 --> 0:14:54.240 going to do this horrible thing if so, if X happens, right, 0:14:54.280 --> 0:14:57.080 it's like, we don't understand why it's behaving, so we 0:14:57.120 --> 0:14:59.560 can't rule out that there might be some horrible thing 0:14:59.560 --> 0:15:01.880 that would have and that we haven't thought of. And 0:15:01.920 --> 0:15:07.000 that's harder wow, right, and so and probably be fine. 0:15:07.080 --> 0:15:11.240 Let me be very clear. Probably probably if if they 0:15:11.360 --> 0:15:13.640 undocked and came home in the star Liner, it's probably 0:15:13.880 --> 0:15:16.160 just fine. And everyone and all the media will go, 0:15:16.600 --> 0:15:20.440 what are they worrying about? You know, so and and 0:15:20.440 --> 0:15:25.200 and But there's that leggling little worry. And what's really great, right, 0:15:25.480 --> 0:15:28.000 is that that's the thing open about the fact that 0:15:28.240 --> 0:15:30.200 you know, Okay, we have disagreement on the team. Some 0:15:30.240 --> 0:15:32.320 of us think it's fine, some of us don't think 0:15:32.360 --> 0:15:35.440 it's fine. And that's a big change from the days 0:15:35.520 --> 0:15:38.760 of the Challenger explosion and the Columbia explosion, where there 0:15:38.760 --> 0:15:41.120 it's a big management we need this to look good. 0:15:41.520 --> 0:15:45.080 Shut up, don't don't, don't raise this horrible possibility, right, 0:15:45.160 --> 0:15:48.200 and then we lost astronauts. So they're doing the prudent thing. 0:15:48.320 --> 0:15:51.480 They're doing it appropriately. They're having open discussion and argument, 0:15:51.520 --> 0:15:55.160 and I love to see that. And and my guess 0:15:55.200 --> 0:15:57.400 at this point is that the odds are in favor 0:15:57.440 --> 0:16:03.640 of them going it probably fine, but let's just be careful. 0:16:04.040 --> 0:16:06.360 Let's keep them up and bring him home on the Dragon. 0:16:06.440 --> 0:16:08.560 Okay, but Javan, nobody in that room that's making a 0:16:08.600 --> 0:16:11.360 decision is using the word they probably will be fine, 0:16:11.600 --> 0:16:13.880 probably can't be good enough in this scenario, I'll. 0:16:13.720 --> 0:16:15.800 Get it, right, they got there, they're gonna use They're 0:16:15.840 --> 0:16:18.280 gonna use words that are that that that hide that. 0:16:18.400 --> 0:16:25.640 But that's why. And so yeah, well no, it's always probabilities, right, 0:16:25.640 --> 0:16:29.400 there's always a risk, right, there's a risk to bring 0:16:29.440 --> 0:16:33.480 them home on the dragon, right with with you know, 0:16:33.640 --> 0:16:37.560 maybe the new sort of seats that they added for 0:16:37.600 --> 0:16:39.960 them are gonna be you know, not quite right, or 0:16:40.000 --> 0:16:44.200 maybe maybe there's something that is very unlike I think 0:16:44.240 --> 0:16:45.800 it's pretty safe to bring home the dragon, but the 0:16:45.840 --> 0:16:49.040 Dragon is not entirely risk free. And so it's you're 0:16:49.080 --> 0:16:54.560 always balancing risks, right, You're if you wait until you 0:16:54.600 --> 0:16:57.280 can say we're not going to launch this rocket until 0:16:57.280 --> 0:17:00.160 it's safe, well I got use for you. You're on like, 0:17:00.240 --> 0:17:04.080 you know, thousands of tons of highly explosive propellant, it's 0:17:04.119 --> 0:17:08.360 never going to be safe. And so so it's always 0:17:08.440 --> 0:17:11.359 which is the less risky? Which is what is the 0:17:11.440 --> 0:17:15.240 acceptable level of risk? And that's what these guys are 0:17:15.320 --> 0:17:19.000 paid to take, right, the acceptable level of risk? And 0:17:19.080 --> 0:17:20.600 so you do your best, you get it to be 0:17:20.600 --> 0:17:24.400 as safe as you can. But no, safer. It's you're 0:17:24.440 --> 0:17:27.600 always taking a risk and so so so I think 0:17:27.640 --> 0:17:30.359 that's that's that's the reality of space fight. Actually, it's 0:17:30.359 --> 0:17:33.000 the reality of life, right though, if you want to 0:17:33.040 --> 0:17:36.520 be safe, you know, don't go stay on your couch 0:17:36.800 --> 0:17:38.480 even then, right, you're gonna have medical problems. 0:17:40.600 --> 0:17:43.479 You make very excellent points, Jonathan. I'm curious with the 0:17:43.520 --> 0:17:46.960 world watching now and so much scrutiny on whether or 0:17:47.040 --> 0:17:49.919 not these two astronauts come home now or in a 0:17:49.960 --> 0:17:54.280 few months, and with the possible risk involved, wouldn't you, 0:17:54.640 --> 0:17:57.479 I mean, it sounded like you believed that probably what 0:17:57.520 --> 0:17:58.920 we're going to hear in two weeks is that they're 0:17:58.960 --> 0:18:00.639 staying up until February. 0:18:01.960 --> 0:18:03.680 That's my guess. But I would let's put it this way, 0:18:03.680 --> 0:18:06.400 I wouldn't be astonished if they make the other call 0:18:06.760 --> 0:18:10.080 and they go, you know, we've done our due diligence. Yeah, 0:18:10.160 --> 0:18:13.359 there's some issues, but we think that the risk of 0:18:13.400 --> 0:18:16.520 something bad is pretty small. So let's bring them home 0:18:16.640 --> 0:18:19.800 and and and and not mess up our schedule so 0:18:19.840 --> 0:18:22.919 that that that's still very much on the table. Uh 0:18:23.000 --> 0:18:26.000 and and so yeah, I'm I'm on tender hooks waiting 0:18:26.040 --> 0:18:28.240 to see what they picked I would if I had 0:18:28.240 --> 0:18:31.800 to bet, I think, you know, uh, three weeks ago, 0:18:31.800 --> 0:18:33.879 I would have bet they'd bring them home on Starliner. 0:18:34.400 --> 0:18:36.720 Now I'm starting to lean towards Yeah, they're probably going 0:18:36.760 --> 0:18:40.240 to pick the Dragon route. But but it it it, 0:18:40.520 --> 0:18:42.400 you know, it could go either way. Either way would 0:18:42.400 --> 0:18:45.720 be a valid engineering decision. And it's really it's really 0:18:45.760 --> 0:18:47.360 on a knife edge, I think, And that's why they're 0:18:47.400 --> 0:18:48.159 taking so long over it. 0:18:48.240 --> 0:18:49.960 Okay, and you keep talking about the Dragon here, we're 0:18:49.960 --> 0:18:53.720 talking about SpaceX, SpaceX and and Boeing are have been 0:18:53.760 --> 0:18:58.320 competitors in the space race, if you will, does it, 0:18:58.359 --> 0:19:02.359 in your opinion factor into or Look, we're human beings. 0:19:02.560 --> 0:19:06.720 But the idea that your competitor sent the astronauts up 0:19:07.520 --> 0:19:12.800 and the competitors vehicle can't bring them back. Haha, SpaceX, 0:19:12.960 --> 0:19:15.879 we got to give your people a ride back because 0:19:15.920 --> 0:19:19.760 your vehicle broke down. Does that factor into Boeing's head 0:19:19.800 --> 0:19:21.960 or anybody else's here. That's a bad look. 0:19:22.560 --> 0:19:25.200 Yeah, it really is a bad look for moving you know, 0:19:25.320 --> 0:19:27.520 it's not let me say this, They've got to try 0:19:27.520 --> 0:19:33.280 and certify the star Liner for for operational flights. They 0:19:33.280 --> 0:19:35.879 can still do that even if they bring it home empty, 0:19:35.920 --> 0:19:37.920 as long as they get the thrusters back and can 0:19:38.000 --> 0:19:41.040 disassemble them in the lab and finally figure out what's 0:19:41.080 --> 0:19:44.200 going wrong. I could see a scenario where the astronauts 0:19:44.240 --> 0:19:46.080 come home and the Dragon that they bring the star 0:19:46.160 --> 0:19:50.000 Liner home without a crew. They analyze it, and they go, Okay, 0:19:50.040 --> 0:19:53.200 now we understand what's going on. We have complete confidence 0:19:53.240 --> 0:19:56.720 that the next flight will be flawless. Right, And so 0:19:56.800 --> 0:19:59.120 it's not necessarily the end of the line for Starliner 0:19:59.119 --> 0:20:01.400 if they do this, but it's a really bad look 0:20:01.840 --> 0:20:07.720 and so yeah, and that's why it's not Boeing's call, right, 0:20:08.280 --> 0:20:12.920 It's it's it's NASA's call. And I think also within NASA, right, 0:20:12.920 --> 0:20:16.639 there's a real interesting going. You know, this whole fiasco 0:20:17.920 --> 0:20:21.560 shows why we want two ships, right, because next time 0:20:21.600 --> 0:20:24.440