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Speaker 1: This is Masters in Business with very Ridholts on Bloomberg Radio.

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Speaker 1: This week on the podcast, my special guest is Katie Stockton.

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Speaker 1: She is the chief technical strategist at bat I G,

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Speaker 1: a New York based brokerage firm, the institutional brokerage firm.

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Speaker 1: If you are at all interested in really some of

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Speaker 1: the details of a practitioner in the field of technicals

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Speaker 1: who are using it as part of their process to

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Speaker 1: advise UH substantial hedge funds, pension funds, mutual funds, really

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Speaker 1: large pools of institutional money, UH, then this is the

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Speaker 1: sort of conversation that you're gonna enjoy. We very much

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Speaker 1: go into the weeds and we talked a lot about

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Speaker 1: very very specific technicals and processes and how she approaches

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Speaker 1: the market. She she's an award winning UH technician who

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Speaker 1: is highly respected on the street. And really it's it's

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Speaker 1: a um, quite a change in the world to look

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Speaker 1: at technicals today as is accepted and part of the

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Speaker 1: firmament of finance, compared to ten or twenty years ago

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Speaker 1: when they were kind of looked looked at askance. And

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Speaker 1: I think the between the rise of quantitative analysis and

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Speaker 1: the computing power that really lets us see, Hey, are

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Speaker 1: these technicals genuinely providing value or not that that's helped

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Speaker 1: them gain broad acceptance. So if you're at all interested

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Speaker 1: in trading, charting, anything technical, you're gonna really enjoy this

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Speaker 1: conversation with no further ado, my interview with Katie Stockton.

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Speaker 1: My guest today is Katie Stockton. She is the chief

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Speaker 1: Technical Strategist for bt I G in New York City. Previously,

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Speaker 1: she was chief market technician at m CAM Partners. She

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Speaker 1: has also been a trader for Ulysses Management fairly substantial

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Speaker 1: New York hedge fund. She also was a publishing analyst

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Speaker 1: for the Technical Strategy Group at Morgan Stanley. She is

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Speaker 1: a CMT and she received her designation in two thousand one.

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Speaker 1: This year, she was named Best Institutional Brokerage for Equity

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Speaker 1: Research at the Technical Analysts Award for the technical research

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Speaker 1: she provides. Katie Stockton, Welcome to Bloomberg. Thank you Berry.

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Speaker 1: It's good to be here. It's good to have you.

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Speaker 1: Let's let's start with a little bit about your background.

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Speaker 1: How did you find your way to Wall Street? What

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Speaker 1: attracted you to stocks, bonds and charts. Well, I think

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Speaker 1: it was really meant to be early on, I had

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Speaker 1: an interest in mathematics and and that took me into

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Speaker 1: a finance major in college. And fortunately, you know, that

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Speaker 1: finance major obviously bosed me to you know, all things

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Speaker 1: Wall Street, of course, but also exposed me to technical analysis,

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Speaker 1: which is of course what I do today in college.

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Speaker 1: In college, believe it or not, really so, so, what

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Speaker 1: sort of classes were you taking where they talked about

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Speaker 1: charge Because it seems that at the academic level, other

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Speaker 1: than people like Professor Andrew lo O and m. I.

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Speaker 1: T who writes about technicals and the heretics of finance,

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Speaker 1: academics look askance at technicals. Well, you know, I think

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Speaker 1: there's a good trend there quite frankly, but still early stages,

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Speaker 1: right right, I'm broken out yet. Um. But when I

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Speaker 1: went to University of Richmond in Virginia, a smaller school,

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Speaker 1: and it just happened to have coursework in technical analysis.

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Speaker 1: Believe it or not, it was one of at the time,

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Speaker 1: it was one of twelve universities that offered this, and

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Speaker 1: now there's far more. But even still, I just got

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Speaker 1: lucky in a way that they offered that coursework. At

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Speaker 1: the I believe it was a four hundred level of

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Speaker 1: Finance class and at the time it was offered to

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Speaker 1: graduate students, so I audited it and that gave me

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Speaker 1: the exposure to some of the tools that I now use.

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Speaker 1: So you had the bug pretty early in your career,

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Speaker 1: did Yeah? And I had an internship while I was

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Speaker 1: at college for a firm called Dorsey right An Associates.

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Speaker 1: If you've heard of them, Not only have I heard

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Speaker 1: of them, but Tom Dorsey was a previous guest on

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Speaker 1: the show Is That Right? And Tom is great? And

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Speaker 1: I'm guessing you'll eventually ask me who my mentors are,

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Speaker 1: and Tom Dorrissey will come up again in our conversation.

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Speaker 1: He's obviously a great person and a great technician and

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Speaker 1: really helped inspire me to do it for a living

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Speaker 1: point and so we'll get into point and figure on

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Speaker 1: versus other types of charting later. Um. So, I've spoken

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Speaker 1: to various technicians who began their career either as fundamental

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Speaker 1: analysts or strategists and said, you know, I'm really more

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Speaker 1: interested in the supply and demands of stock transactions than

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Speaker 1: the broad I don't want to call it guesswork, but

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Speaker 1: the broader, less tech the cool things you apparently never

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Speaker 1: had that sort of bug. You went straight into the

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Speaker 1: straight into it, and like I said, it just seemed

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Speaker 1: like it his fate for me to to do what

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Speaker 1: I do now because it's it's such a great mesh

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Speaker 1: of the mathematical side of things, and it really resonates

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Speaker 1: with me in terms of analyzing a stock as a stock,

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Speaker 1: not just as representative of a company, because as we

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Speaker 1: all know, you'll see a market move effect various stocks

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Speaker 1: in a way that makes no sense from a fundamental perspective.

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Speaker 1: So to be able to understand how that's happening, why

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Speaker 1: it's happening, and really what's happening, and I think that's

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Speaker 1: very valuable. So when I took the course, the Technical

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Speaker 1: Analysis course with Ralph Alkimpora, one of the things that

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Speaker 1: have stayed with me was a quote of his and

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Speaker 1: Ralph said, fundamentals tell you what to buy, Technicals tell

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Speaker 1: you when what do you think? Well, there's undeniably a

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Speaker 1: great market timing element that you can derive from the charts.

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Speaker 1: And I would also argue though, that you can use

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Speaker 1: them for idea generation and it becomes a matter of preference.

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Speaker 1: So I think of technical analysis as really a complementary discipline,

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Speaker 1: So it's not a stand alone in the same way

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Speaker 1: that I don't think macro you know, economics or fundamentals

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Speaker 1: should also be a stand alone. I think together you

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Speaker 1: can get a great sort of rounded view of a

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Speaker 1: market or a security. And you know, if the fundamentals

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Speaker 1: help you decide what to buy, and then you use

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Speaker 1: technicals or charts to understand your best entries and exits,

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Speaker 1: that's definitely one use. So there's a lot of risk

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Speaker 1: management involved in using completely. Yeah, that they can be

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Speaker 1: very valuable, especially for a cell discipline, which I think

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Speaker 1: a lot of people are lacking for sure. So so

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Speaker 1: what is technical analysis actually measure? When you're looking at

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Speaker 1: a chart of a stock, what are you really looking at?

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Speaker 1: You know, it's it's prices, right, So the market really

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Speaker 1: lends us one data point and it's price, and I

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Speaker 1: would argue that volume is another one. But yet has

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Speaker 1: really lost some of its value in terms of having

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Speaker 1: in any predictive information. Why is that? Why is volume that?

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Speaker 1: As a trader and it was always volume proceeds price,

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Speaker 1: you heard that constantly. Is that no longer it used

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Speaker 1: to be? Yeah, you need to see volume expanding into

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Speaker 1: sustainable up trends, and that that was the stuff of

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Speaker 1: the textbooks way back when. Now, of course we've seen

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Speaker 1: volume on on the decline since about two thousand and seven,

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Speaker 1: so about ten years now. Is that of the financial

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Speaker 1: crisis or the rise of indexing or I think many

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Speaker 1: different A little it's many different things. I mean, there's

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Speaker 1: obviously derivatives. We have so many different influences on volume

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Speaker 1: these days, and I would argue some of them are

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Speaker 1: not um real volume. I mean, there's always a buyer

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Speaker 1: and seller, right, but are these committed buyers? Are they

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Speaker 1: you know, real sellers so or are they passive you

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Speaker 1: know indexers, or or are they high frequency traders? So

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Speaker 1: you just you can't really understand if the volume is

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Speaker 1: real these days. And then it's also been on the decline,

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Speaker 1: so you have these influences that make it just that

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Speaker 1: much less helpful in my opinion. So to me, I'm

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Speaker 1: I'm very much just looking at prices, and prices can

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Speaker 1: be incredibly informational and and of course those prices are

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Speaker 1: measuring supply and demand, and it's just that simple. Let's

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Speaker 1: talk a little bit about what the chief technical strategist does.

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Speaker 1: What does your process look like, where do you begin. Well,

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Speaker 1: I am a cell side research analyst, so I work

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Speaker 1: for a broker dealer b T i G here in Manhattan.

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Speaker 1: Your clients are mostly large institutions, all institutional clients, and

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Speaker 1: it runs a gamut in terms of hedge funds, mutual funds,

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Speaker 1: really anyone who can benefit from this kind of analysis,

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Speaker 1: which I would describe as top down in nature. But

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Speaker 1: I also do a lot of bottom up work to

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Speaker 1: support that, or my version of bottom up work is

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Speaker 1: probably quite different than what we all know. So that's

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Speaker 1: what I was gonna ask. When you say top down,

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Speaker 1: you're really looking at markets, different types of asset classes,

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Speaker 1: different sectors, and bottoms up our specific companies. Is that's

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Speaker 1: exact right? I do tend to be equity centric, and

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Speaker 1: at BT I G we are global financial services firms,

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Speaker 1: so I've branched out and looked at more than just

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Speaker 1: US and to really global equity markets. And I do

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Speaker 1: start with the major indussease, the equity indsease. I look

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Speaker 1: at sector benchmarks, things like that, and then of course

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Speaker 1: anything that really influences equities, whether it's commodities, f X,

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Speaker 1: things like that. So that's where I start and I

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Speaker 1: think it's an important place to start in a UM

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Speaker 1: an environment that is so sort of top down driven,

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Speaker 1: right where where the macro influences are so important and

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Speaker 1: really are the drivers of some of the trends. And

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Speaker 1: to understand that's very important. I mean, if you're if

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Speaker 1: you're you know, right on the market, generally, you're probably

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Speaker 1: going to have a much better you know time at

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Speaker 1: being right on any individual company. And then I do

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Speaker 1: also look at the market, um, you know, just based

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Speaker 1: on the stocks that comprise the major indicry. So every week,

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Speaker 1: every other week, in fact, I'll do either international or

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Speaker 1: US and and take a list of five hundred stocks

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Speaker 1: and look at those one by one. And it's a

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Speaker 1: bit tedious, but that process to me helps me in

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Speaker 1: my my market views, but also can help us understand

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Speaker 1: where there is opportunity UM whether it's breakouts or breakdowns

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Speaker 1: or a theme based opportunity. So we're just looking for

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Speaker 1: developments on the charts and themes. So when you're looking

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Speaker 1: at charts, are you looking specifically for either extensions of

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Speaker 1: trends or breaks of trends? Are you looking at specific patterns?

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Speaker 1: What is it that catches your main focus? Well, I

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Speaker 1: really do believe as you could imagine in trend following,

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Speaker 1: and I think that you generally want to have your

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Speaker 1: core long exposure in you know, securities that are in

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Speaker 1: long term up trend set. And there's a lot of

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Speaker 1: academic support for for that. Certainly. Yeah, you know, a

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Speaker 1: trend in motion tends to stay in motion. And yet

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Speaker 1: where I can also add value to our clients as

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Speaker 1: an understanding where there might be an inflection point or

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Speaker 1: you know, deteriorating momentum that type of things. So we

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Speaker 1: do spend a lot of time looking for signs of

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Speaker 1: trend exhaustion it how would you how would you look

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Speaker 1: for trend exhaustion and how would you define that? There?

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Speaker 1: There's I'd say there's three classes of indicators that I use.

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Speaker 1: The first would be momentum or trend following, the second

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Speaker 1: would be overbought oversold, and the third would be relative strength.

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Speaker 1: So to arrive at that trend exhaustion signal, I'm typically

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Speaker 1: looking at the overbought oversold measures. So for me, that

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Speaker 1: would be a stochastic oscillator or Tom Demark's suite of

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Speaker 1: indicators tend to help with that as well. And what

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Speaker 1: what don't you look at what are the sort of

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Speaker 1: things that you just don't find of a lot of

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Speaker 1: value at least to your process, right, and it's very

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Speaker 1: specific to the individual. Of course, what you have success

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Speaker 1: with and what I always recommend to people is to

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Speaker 1: to have a process and whatever that process, maybe to

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Speaker 1: be consistent and somewhat systematic in the way you approach it,

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Speaker 1: because what you learn is that these indicators, while they

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Speaker 1: fail you, often you learn where they tend to fail you.

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Speaker 1: And it's all in really how you combine the indicat

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Speaker 1: heaters that you arrive at a market view, and so

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Speaker 1: it's fairly probabilistic. You're no one indicator is a sure thing,

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Speaker 1: but a collection of indicators give you a better chance.

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Speaker 1: That's exactly right, And it helps to take out some

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Speaker 1: of the gray area of the market. So I really

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Speaker 1: welcome those kinds of tools that are a bit more

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Speaker 1: mathematically derived and less visual, but to really just enhance

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Speaker 1: what you're seeing more visually, because you can't take that

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Speaker 1: element away, of course. But what I don't use would

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Speaker 1: be UM. I don't use many UM you know, wave analysis,

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Speaker 1: no wave for me, I don't use anyone. Still a

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Speaker 1: lot of people do in fact, and my experiences is

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Speaker 1: that they tend to be more bearish than not. Has

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Speaker 1: that worked out the well, and so I think, you know,

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Speaker 1: maybe that could be more successful when overlaid with some

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Speaker 1: of the momentum tools and what else don't you use.

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Speaker 1: What do you think of fibinaci as a trading tool, Well,

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Speaker 1: it's not really a trading tool, but it's a way

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Speaker 1: to identify support and resist stance, right, so that can

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Speaker 1: be very valuable. In fact, I think, if if any

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Speaker 1: takeaway that you have from the charts, support and resistance

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Speaker 1: should be where you start, because that's your gauge of

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Speaker 1: risk and reward. So fibonacis can be very very helpful

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Speaker 1: in that regard. They're a little difficult to explain to clients,

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Speaker 1: as you could imagine, because why do they work? Yeah? Why? Yeah?

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Speaker 1: Why do they work? It's a ratio throughout nature. I

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Speaker 1: don't want to man explain fibonaci because you're the I

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Speaker 1: wish I wish you would. In fact, it is the

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Speaker 1: golden ratio, which is found in all sorts of um

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Speaker 1: in and in um, the nautilus shells, and in all

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Speaker 1: sorts of other things like that. And as you said,

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Speaker 1: we're not really sure why it works or it works,

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Speaker 1: but it certainly seems to be there. It does matter,

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Speaker 1: and it can be really helpful when you don't have

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Speaker 1: more traditional means of deriving support and resistance. And by

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Speaker 1: that I would mean something like a movie average, a

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Speaker 1: movie average, or a peak or a trough on the chart.

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Speaker 1: So my friend Todd Harrison, who used to be a

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Speaker 1: chief trader at a hedge fund, used to say, is

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Speaker 1: with things like Fibonacci when we would be debating how

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Speaker 1: well they work or didn't work, is the support there

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Speaker 1: because of the fibonacci or is the fibonacci there because

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Speaker 1: of the support? Or? In other words, if everybody believes

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Speaker 1: something is the case, does it just become a self

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Speaker 1: fulfilling prophecy or something else going on? You know? I mean,

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Speaker 1: we we could talk about that. I don't think there's

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Speaker 1: any real answer to that question, unfortunately, except to say

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Speaker 1: that where things are self fulfilling, great because we we

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Speaker 1: welcome that. And uh, you know, I'd say the fibonacis

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Speaker 1: would be less obvious as something that would be self

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Speaker 1: fulfilling in that it's a subjective approach to draw in

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Speaker 1: those ratios on the charts, whereas something like the two

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Speaker 1: day movie average would be more likely to have that

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Speaker 1: self fulfilling nature. I support resistance because there's so many

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Speaker 1: eyes on it. Let's talk a little bit about technical

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Speaker 1: analysis for the late person. Explain to us what technical

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Speaker 1: analysis actually is. Well, you know people know it as charting, right,

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Speaker 1: So you take a price. Any security has a price,

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Speaker 1: and what we're using is that price as a gauge

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Speaker 1: was supply and demand for that security, and trying to

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Speaker 1: understand the trends behind that, and not only the trends

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Speaker 1: but also when they might end. So that that's the

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Speaker 1: design of technical analysis. We're trying to understand where there

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Speaker 1: might be a shift in that supplied demand relationship just

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Speaker 1: using price based analysis. So early in your career you

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Speaker 1: worked for Tom Dorsey at Dorsey Right, and they are

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Speaker 1: famous for point and figure charting. How does that chart

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Speaker 1: differ from just a regular price chart. Um, it's incredibly different. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: you know, when you look at it, it it looks almost

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Speaker 1: like a tic tac toe sheet with x's nose And

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Speaker 1: the most important distinction is that it doesn't really reflect

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Speaker 1: time on the X axis in the same way that

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Speaker 1: a typical bar chart which would have open high low

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Speaker 1: closed data would UM. I tend to use the bar

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Speaker 1: charts more now, in part because it was difficult on

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Speaker 1: a in a cell side position to explain exactly why

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Speaker 1: we should care about these xs and os. But they're

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Speaker 1: really such such a useful a way of looking at

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Speaker 1: the market is to understand this supply demand that goes

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Speaker 1: into the xs and os that you're plotting on these

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Speaker 1: these grids UM great for trend following, great for understanding

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Speaker 1: breakouts and breakdowns. Um, but you know they omit a

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Speaker 1: volume component and no volume, no time, just buying and selling. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: just buying and selling, Like you know, has price moved

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Speaker 1: enough to designate another plot? Basically, what are what are

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Speaker 1: some of the big misconceptions about technical analysis? We've heard

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Speaker 1: people say over the years that stuff is just voodoo.

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Speaker 1: Oh and they're still saying it, some of them. But well,

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Speaker 1: I've been doing this for about twenty years, and I'd

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Speaker 1: say it's come a long way, a really long way,

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Speaker 1: so in terms of the level of professionalism that you

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Speaker 1: see in our our small industry, and for good reason,

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Speaker 1: because people are realizing that that it's helpful, and I

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Speaker 1: think the push towards using it more systematically has really

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Speaker 1: taken it to that next level. So the misconceptions would

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Speaker 1: be that we're trying to you know, take historical prices

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Speaker 1: and always you know, predict something that it's overly predictive,

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Speaker 1: and then you assign these silly names to various price patterns,

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Speaker 1: and I think that adds to some aura of it

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Speaker 1: being not as serious in terms of the analysis, But

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Speaker 1: in reality it's it's more surface level because it really

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Speaker 1: is only price based. And I see that as a

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Speaker 1: positive because it allows you to look at anything and

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Speaker 1: have an opinion on it in less than a minute,

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Speaker 1: for for example, and it's objective. You're not you know,

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Speaker 1: you're looking at the actual data, not someone's opinion about

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Speaker 1: management or new product or new that's right, And I

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Speaker 1: think in a way that's a good thing because you

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Speaker 1: you become less committed to a position. And if you

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Speaker 1: identify a stock that you're interested in because it has

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Speaker 1: a great uptrend or some renewed momentum behind it, or

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Speaker 1: it's exhibiting relative strength, um, but you've only put in,

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Speaker 1: you know, twenty minutes of research on it, um, I

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Speaker 1: think you're less likely to get married to that position. Um,

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Speaker 1: But you know the best types of positions, in my opinion,

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Speaker 1: would have that you know, that trend falling, you know,

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Speaker 1: those gauges lined up positively, but also have the fundamental backdrop,

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Speaker 1: So that to me would be an ideal setup. And

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Speaker 1: I think more and more people are recognizing the value

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Speaker 1: and using it as that complementary discipline as opposed to

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Speaker 1: something that's designed to say, okay, well, whereas you know

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Speaker 1: this SMP five going to be in five years, because

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Speaker 1: that's not really to me where the value is. I

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Speaker 1: love the idea that it allows a degree of objectivity

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Speaker 1: so that you don't marry a position. A phrase I

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Speaker 1: heard many years ago was strong opinions weekly held and

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Speaker 1: I've always really enjoyed that. We love this and then

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Speaker 1: it breaks the trend and that's it. We're done, right.

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Speaker 1: So to be somewhat noncommittal, Um, it does tend to

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Speaker 1: help you manage risk. It does. So let's talk a

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Speaker 1: little bit about technology. How has the ubiquity of of

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Speaker 1: not just computers, but really high powered software on everybody's desktop.

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Speaker 1: How has that changed the work you do as a

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Speaker 1: as a technician in a very favorable way? Um, you know,

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Speaker 1: with my first job out of college was actually hand

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Speaker 1: charting these point figure charts that you describe. So, um,

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Speaker 1: you know now that we have all these resources to use,

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Speaker 1: the upside is it's really unlimited. It's it's exciting, um,

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Speaker 1: in that we can do so much more in terms

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Speaker 1: of our capacity to not only draw the charts and

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Speaker 1: access the charts, but also to filter for different setups

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Speaker 1: and look for different price patterns using some advanced software

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Speaker 1: that can identify these patterns almost for you. It's really

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Speaker 1: amazing what you know people have come up with in

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Speaker 1: that regard, and it can be very helpful in terms

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Speaker 1: of idea generation. But also you know that the push

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Speaker 1: towards AI and more quantitative approaches to the market, they

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Speaker 1: tend to have a technical element to them because a

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Speaker 1: lot of them are price based. You have that that input,

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Speaker 1: and so I think there's a lot of upside there.

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Speaker 1: I think it's still somewhat early stages in terms of

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Speaker 1: what can be done with it, but certainly, you know,

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Speaker 1: anything that you can program, of which a lot of

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Speaker 1: indicators are very programmable, I think there's a lot of

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Speaker 1: upside there. In the introduction, I mentioned the award you won,

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Speaker 1: which is quite an honorific to receive the essentially the

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Speaker 1: Technologomist of the Year award. For lack of a better phrase,

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Speaker 1: tell us a little about the award and how have

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Speaker 1: your institutional clients responded to that. So they the Technical

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Speaker 1: Analyst which is a UK based organization. They do an

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Speaker 1: annual awards event and ceremony and with more than one category,

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Speaker 1: so by no means that my Technical Analysts of the Year.

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Speaker 1: But but we do, you know, appreciate the honor of

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Speaker 1: being labeled best institutional brokerage for equity research, which of

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Speaker 1: course is technical nature. So we um you know, have

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Speaker 1: publicized that in different ways, you know, a press release,

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Speaker 1: and it's been well received by clients of course, and

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Speaker 1: and what their their vote of confidence is in the

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Speaker 1: written product that we produce. It's funny that I gave

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Speaker 1: your award of promotion. I'm trying to do appreciate it.

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Speaker 1: I was I was interviewing somebody and I could not

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Speaker 1: keep their title straight in my head. It was one

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Speaker 1: of these typically long sort of Wall Street and by

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Speaker 1: the time the interview was done, I just had given

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Speaker 1: up trying to get their title right. And it was

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Speaker 1: just And today we have the CEO of JP Morgan

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Speaker 1: and you know, they could see the compliance person in

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Speaker 1: booths pulling their hair out of their head. It was

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Speaker 1: it was pretty hilarious, but it was a big deal.

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Speaker 1: Was the big award that I'm not exaggerating one shorthanded.

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Speaker 1: Do you believe we we beat out fifteen other firms

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Speaker 1: and UM that's exciting to me. It really is a

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Speaker 1: vote of confidence in what we're producing. And they were

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Speaker 1: complementary of the research as being you know, timely and actionable.

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Speaker 1: Do you got to like that? Right? So so let's

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Speaker 1: talk about UM clients today. I tease the segment as

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Speaker 1: what modern institutional clients want? What is it that clients

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Speaker 1: are looking for from a technical UM research analysts like yourself.

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Speaker 1: There's no one answer to that. In fact, every meeting

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Speaker 1: that I have tends to be quite different. UM and

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Speaker 1: we can add value in a lot of ways. The

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Speaker 1: most obvious way, perhaps is by being more of a strategist.

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Speaker 1: We're helping people understand the top down market views where

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Speaker 1: you know, is the S and P five hundred in

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Speaker 1: terms of momentum and over about over sould measures and

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Speaker 1: what are levels of importance? Things like that. So some

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Speaker 1: clients really want to know that because obviously that top

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Speaker 1: down view trickles down into their positions and and there,

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Speaker 1: and it's quite important. And you find that, you know,

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Speaker 1: even if people disagree, they're often disagreeing for a different reason.

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Speaker 1: It's not because they're coming from a technical you know

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Speaker 1: position there. It's more macro fundamental that's leading them to disagree.

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Speaker 1: So it's not as much of a debate as it

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Speaker 1: would be if I was a macro strategist perhaps going

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Speaker 1: into an office. So so you put out a written

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Speaker 1: research product that gets emailed out weekly, daily, whenever how often,

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Speaker 1: and I'm assuming there are some special um topics and

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Speaker 1: alerts and different things you cover. When that goes to

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Speaker 1: a client, what are the responses? Is it an email

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Speaker 1: response back? Here's what I like? Is when I don't like?

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Speaker 1: Is it? This is really significant? We need to talk

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Speaker 1: about this right away because you hate X, y Z

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Speaker 1: and it's our biggest position. How do you get feedback

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Speaker 1: from clients? And what are those subsequent conversations? So the

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Speaker 1: written product, by no means is that and all of

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Speaker 1: what we do, but it's certainly foundational to what we do.

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Speaker 1: We published two weekly notes. One is our top down

429
00:24:06,080 --> 00:24:10,280
Speaker 1: view you know, stocks, bonds, commodities, things like that. And

430
00:24:10,600 --> 00:24:12,159
Speaker 1: the other is the bottom up work where we look

431
00:24:12,200 --> 00:24:15,080
Speaker 1: at the individual stocks and you know, help with the

432
00:24:15,119 --> 00:24:19,199
Speaker 1: idea generation, look for breakouts and breakdowns and themes. And

433
00:24:19,240 --> 00:24:22,280
Speaker 1: then we have a daily note to publish some signals

434
00:24:22,280 --> 00:24:24,800
Speaker 1: and some market internal measures we call them, and to

435
00:24:24,880 --> 00:24:27,640
Speaker 1: really manage our call on an intra week basis. So

436
00:24:28,160 --> 00:24:31,000
Speaker 1: we're fairly prolific in terms of what we publish and

437
00:24:31,000 --> 00:24:34,920
Speaker 1: and generally speaking, you know, we'll we'll get questions from

438
00:24:34,920 --> 00:24:38,760
Speaker 1: those reports, whether they're about various securities, you know that

439
00:24:38,840 --> 00:24:41,600
Speaker 1: the individual equities. That would be one thing where people

440
00:24:41,600 --> 00:24:43,960
Speaker 1: would ask about things like crude oil you know today

441
00:24:44,040 --> 00:24:46,520
Speaker 1: of course it would be relevant, you know, for crude oil,

442
00:24:46,560 --> 00:24:49,280
Speaker 1: just because it's been in the news. And so I'll

443
00:24:49,320 --> 00:24:53,960
Speaker 1: get questions on whatever's topical. And and how often do

444
00:24:54,040 --> 00:24:58,879
Speaker 1: you find your views are changing on not just the

445
00:24:58,880 --> 00:25:03,480
Speaker 1: whole market, but sp of accectors or specific regions. How

446
00:25:03,520 --> 00:25:06,200
Speaker 1: frequently do you find yourself saying, gee, we like this

447
00:25:06,280 --> 00:25:09,680
Speaker 1: six months ago, but not so much anymore. I'm very

448
00:25:09,760 --> 00:25:13,400
Speaker 1: fluid in my market views, and I find that when

449
00:25:13,440 --> 00:25:17,439
Speaker 1: something is strongly trending, like the smp F one, you

450
00:25:17,440 --> 00:25:20,040
Speaker 1: don't change your views that much except to manage those

451
00:25:20,119 --> 00:25:22,480
Speaker 1: views from a shorter term perspective to say, well, there's

452
00:25:22,520 --> 00:25:26,239
Speaker 1: some greater risk right now of a pullback, and that

453
00:25:26,280 --> 00:25:28,800
Speaker 1: type of thing can be very added value to people

454
00:25:28,880 --> 00:25:31,720
Speaker 1: that are trying to determine whether to wait or at

455
00:25:31,760 --> 00:25:34,320
Speaker 1: exposure immediately. So we try to manage the views on

456
00:25:34,359 --> 00:25:37,240
Speaker 1: a short term basis, but the longer term views tend

457
00:25:37,280 --> 00:25:40,120
Speaker 1: to be pretty sticky. Where they're a little bit less

458
00:25:40,119 --> 00:25:42,119
Speaker 1: stick you would be when you have a range bound

459
00:25:42,200 --> 00:25:45,560
Speaker 1: type of situation, So a break out right like a

460
00:25:45,600 --> 00:25:48,680
Speaker 1: non trending market, So the euro would be a great

461
00:25:48,680 --> 00:25:51,719
Speaker 1: example of one that had been non trending really for

462
00:25:51,840 --> 00:25:54,240
Speaker 1: a couple of years until recently we had a break

463
00:25:54,280 --> 00:25:57,199
Speaker 1: out in the euro and that then becomes more of

464
00:25:57,200 --> 00:26:00,440
Speaker 1: a trending situation and probably for that reason, will will

465
00:26:00,520 --> 00:26:03,119
Speaker 1: stay more sticky in our views. So let's talk a

466
00:26:03,119 --> 00:26:05,840
Speaker 1: little bit about currency, since since you brought that up,

467
00:26:06,240 --> 00:26:09,320
Speaker 1: we've seen a very strong dollar and and for those

468
00:26:09,359 --> 00:26:12,120
Speaker 1: people listening to this far off in the future, here

469
00:26:12,200 --> 00:26:17,080
Speaker 1: we are. It's the summer of um. As we're recording this,

470
00:26:17,280 --> 00:26:20,280
Speaker 1: the down in the SMP are making fresh all time

471
00:26:20,359 --> 00:26:23,359
Speaker 1: highs that was up about one twenty and it is

472
00:26:23,400 --> 00:26:27,840
Speaker 1: not all that far away from two um. And we

473
00:26:27,960 --> 00:26:31,880
Speaker 1: had a fairly substantial rally in the dollar pretty much

474
00:26:31,960 --> 00:26:36,240
Speaker 1: up till the end of is the euros gained the

475
00:26:36,359 --> 00:26:39,120
Speaker 1: dollars loss. How do you look at currency is relative

476
00:26:39,119 --> 00:26:41,520
Speaker 1: to each other and what does that mean for the

477
00:26:41,600 --> 00:26:44,840
Speaker 1: local economies there and here? Yeah, And I mean I'm

478
00:26:44,920 --> 00:26:48,159
Speaker 1: not wanting to comment on on the macro influences of

479
00:26:48,240 --> 00:26:50,640
Speaker 1: the f X moves. The way I look at it

480
00:26:50,720 --> 00:26:55,200
Speaker 1: is as the Dollar index, which is really massively euro centered.

481
00:26:55,720 --> 00:26:57,680
Speaker 1: You know, the dollar index had seen such a nice

482
00:26:57,760 --> 00:26:59,800
Speaker 1: round up, as you mentioned, but really in the last

483
00:27:00,119 --> 00:27:05,399
Speaker 1: months has just been in this persistent down trend and

484
00:27:05,480 --> 00:27:10,199
Speaker 1: it's been Yeah, it's really pretty big drop and and

485
00:27:10,320 --> 00:27:13,760
Speaker 1: almost um, you know, barely interrupted by relief rallies. So

486
00:27:13,800 --> 00:27:16,800
Speaker 1: it's really been a persistent drop and sort of differentiates

487
00:27:16,840 --> 00:27:19,199
Speaker 1: itself because of that. And I think when you have

488
00:27:19,240 --> 00:27:21,480
Speaker 1: a trend like that, you just want to be respectful

489
00:27:21,600 --> 00:27:23,720
Speaker 1: of it. When you look at the euro, it's not

490
00:27:23,800 --> 00:27:26,880
Speaker 1: an exact inverse, but it's certainly close to it. Um.

491
00:27:26,960 --> 00:27:29,359
Speaker 1: You know, if you look at EU r USC, you

492
00:27:29,440 --> 00:27:32,760
Speaker 1: see this breakout that I mentioned from the wide trading range,

493
00:27:33,119 --> 00:27:35,320
Speaker 1: and that breakout just simply based on the width of

494
00:27:35,400 --> 00:27:39,440
Speaker 1: the range would target about without any indication of the

495
00:27:39,480 --> 00:27:41,440
Speaker 1: time frame over which that would happen. But you know,

496
00:27:41,560 --> 00:27:45,200
Speaker 1: longer term meaning more euro strength, more dollar, more dollar weakness,

497
00:27:45,240 --> 00:27:49,359
Speaker 1: and we've gotten some underperformance from European equities and and

498
00:27:49,600 --> 00:27:53,159
Speaker 1: out performance from US equities. But I think that shift

499
00:27:53,240 --> 00:27:56,679
Speaker 1: is is maybe less currency related and more related to

500
00:27:57,200 --> 00:28:01,840
Speaker 1: other macro influences and certainly whether or not those markets

501
00:28:01,880 --> 00:28:05,280
Speaker 1: are oversold on a relative basis. So I want to say,

502
00:28:05,400 --> 00:28:09,240
Speaker 1: for the past decade, the US is up something like

503
00:28:09,280 --> 00:28:15,000
Speaker 1: two D seventy and Europe is up eleven, and e

504
00:28:15,200 --> 00:28:19,119
Speaker 1: M is essentially flat. Maybe getting those numbers. Yeah, you know,

505
00:28:19,320 --> 00:28:23,639
Speaker 1: it's been amazing the long term relative strength ratios, you

506
00:28:23,680 --> 00:28:27,720
Speaker 1: know e M versus developed or e M versus US.

507
00:28:27,720 --> 00:28:30,720
Speaker 1: But finally, in the past i'd say years, so you've

508
00:28:30,720 --> 00:28:35,320
Speaker 1: really seen stabilization um in terms of relative performance globally.

509
00:28:35,600 --> 00:28:37,600
Speaker 1: And maybe that's because it is so much more of

510
00:28:37,600 --> 00:28:41,160
Speaker 1: a global marketplace, or maybe it's just because finally these

511
00:28:41,200 --> 00:28:44,600
Speaker 1: markets are are participating and you know, their economies are

512
00:28:44,640 --> 00:28:48,640
Speaker 1: looking better. Whatever the driving forests, it certainly has manifested

513
00:28:48,680 --> 00:28:52,040
Speaker 1: itself in some turnarounds in the ratios. So we're talking

514
00:28:52,080 --> 00:28:54,760
Speaker 1: about currencies, Let's talk a little bit about something that

515
00:28:54,880 --> 00:28:59,480
Speaker 1: I think a lot of people find um challenging or perplexing.

516
00:29:00,480 --> 00:29:04,520
Speaker 1: How do you track on a chart the various blockchain

517
00:29:04,600 --> 00:29:08,520
Speaker 1: currencies like bitcoin. These things all look like they've just

518
00:29:08,600 --> 00:29:11,920
Speaker 1: become completely unhinged. How do you buy into something like

519
00:29:11,960 --> 00:29:16,080
Speaker 1: that that's had such a explosive move to the upside,

520
00:29:16,760 --> 00:29:19,040
Speaker 1: you know, I call it a parabolic up trend. When

521
00:29:19,040 --> 00:29:22,360
Speaker 1: you see those, and they are very difficult to find

522
00:29:22,480 --> 00:29:26,040
Speaker 1: entries that you can feel confident in adding exposure. I

523
00:29:26,080 --> 00:29:28,920
Speaker 1: do think the charts are very viable ways to analyze

524
00:29:28,960 --> 00:29:33,120
Speaker 1: these currencies because you know, otherwise information is somewhat limited,

525
00:29:33,440 --> 00:29:36,480
Speaker 1: So so you can really identify trends, and they're certainly

526
00:29:36,520 --> 00:29:39,920
Speaker 1: trend dean. And then in order to take advantage of them,

527
00:29:39,960 --> 00:29:43,040
Speaker 1: I think you need to have confidence in buying breakouts.

528
00:29:43,040 --> 00:29:45,640
Speaker 1: So if you actually see a fresh catalyst on the

529
00:29:45,720 --> 00:29:49,120
Speaker 1: charts where you're exceeding a resistance level, then you have

530
00:29:49,200 --> 00:29:52,720
Speaker 1: to have confidence in in buying higher and it's it's

531
00:29:52,760 --> 00:29:54,680
Speaker 1: often the right thing to do, quite frankly, when these

532
00:29:54,680 --> 00:29:58,560
Speaker 1: trends are in motion. So with with the parabolic trends,

533
00:29:58,600 --> 00:30:00,640
Speaker 1: I tend to watch some of the more sensitive or

534
00:30:00,960 --> 00:30:04,720
Speaker 1: shorter term moving averages, and when they flatten, I tend

535
00:30:04,760 --> 00:30:08,520
Speaker 1: to recommend taking down partial exposure. For example, the twenty

536
00:30:08,600 --> 00:30:11,160
Speaker 1: day moving average would be quite short term, but when

537
00:30:11,160 --> 00:30:13,680
Speaker 1: you're in this parabolic up move that's quite steep and

538
00:30:13,720 --> 00:30:16,160
Speaker 1: you see the twenty d flatten, which often happens before

539
00:30:16,200 --> 00:30:19,120
Speaker 1: you get a really meaningful pullback, I think that can

540
00:30:19,160 --> 00:30:22,440
Speaker 1: be a good mechanism I guess to take down exposure.

541
00:30:23,000 --> 00:30:26,440
Speaker 1: We have been speaking with Katie Stockton, chief technical strategist

542
00:30:26,480 --> 00:30:29,280
Speaker 1: at b t i G. Check out my daily column

543
00:30:29,320 --> 00:30:31,640
Speaker 1: on Bloomberg View dot com. You can follow me on

544
00:30:31,680 --> 00:30:35,600
Speaker 1: Twitter at rid Halts. We love your comments, feedback and

545
00:30:35,680 --> 00:30:40,720
Speaker 1: suggestions right to us at m IB podcast at Bloomberg

546
00:30:40,760 --> 00:30:44,200
Speaker 1: dot net. I'm Barry Ridhults. You've been listening to Masters

547
00:30:44,200 --> 00:31:03,600
Speaker 1: in Business on Bloomberg Radio. Welcome to the podcast. Thank

548
00:31:03,640 --> 00:31:06,160
Speaker 1: you Katie so much for doing this. And I don't

549
00:31:06,160 --> 00:31:08,680
Speaker 1: know if you remember where we first met, but I

550
00:31:08,720 --> 00:31:12,200
Speaker 1: want to say, who's at camp Ko talk. It may

551
00:31:12,240 --> 00:31:14,600
Speaker 1: have been I feel like we may go back further

552
00:31:14,680 --> 00:31:17,240
Speaker 1: than that, but that was a great place. We do

553
00:31:17,360 --> 00:31:20,560
Speaker 1: go back for it because I know who introduced us.

554
00:31:20,720 --> 00:31:24,200
Speaker 1: It was Kevin Lane, that's right, who is a technician

555
00:31:24,360 --> 00:31:29,280
Speaker 1: who runs uh b D in a research shop. And

556
00:31:29,720 --> 00:31:34,680
Speaker 1: Kevin was at I want to call it technamentals secnamentals. Yeah,

557
00:31:34,800 --> 00:31:39,080
Speaker 1: it's got to be euands sounds about right, That's yeah,

558
00:31:39,120 --> 00:31:43,720
Speaker 1: that's the technicians. We run a these small circles all

559
00:31:43,760 --> 00:31:46,000
Speaker 1: know each other, I feel like, so I can't tell

560
00:31:46,040 --> 00:31:49,360
Speaker 1: you how many people I know who took the class

561
00:31:49,360 --> 00:31:54,040
Speaker 1: with Ralph Atripora or other people at the I don't

562
00:31:54,040 --> 00:31:55,800
Speaker 1: know what they're calling it now. They just did a

563
00:31:55,840 --> 00:32:05,000
Speaker 1: big name change because it's now the the CMT Association

564
00:32:05,200 --> 00:32:10,080
Speaker 1: Association used to be the that's right, So they've changed

565
00:32:10,120 --> 00:32:12,360
Speaker 1: the name, which is a bit more aligned with the

566
00:32:12,440 --> 00:32:17,720
Speaker 1: cf A societies. CMT, which is Chartered Market Technician, has

567
00:32:17,760 --> 00:32:20,560
Speaker 1: really grown as a designation, and for me it's been

568
00:32:20,600 --> 00:32:23,840
Speaker 1: invaluable in my career because you know, it's a credentializes

569
00:32:23,920 --> 00:32:28,280
Speaker 1: you right to publish this research, but also in preparing

570
00:32:28,400 --> 00:32:30,680
Speaker 1: for that, you know, you you do learn a lot

571
00:32:30,720 --> 00:32:35,000
Speaker 1: of tools and other disciplines that might be interesting, and

572
00:32:35,040 --> 00:32:38,120
Speaker 1: so it helps expand your horizons A little bit, and

573
00:32:38,160 --> 00:32:41,280
Speaker 1: you've you've become a regular on the on the media

574
00:32:41,360 --> 00:32:47,200
Speaker 1: circuit talking about various market sectors. I notice you're much

575
00:32:47,240 --> 00:32:51,800
Speaker 1: more circumspect in the way you discuss markets then some

576
00:32:51,840 --> 00:32:55,440
Speaker 1: technicians are. Some technicians want to get right into the

577
00:32:55,960 --> 00:32:57,600
Speaker 1: As you can see from this chart, it's a head

578
00:32:57,600 --> 00:33:01,080
Speaker 1: and shoulders. It's this. It's that you really talk more

579
00:33:01,120 --> 00:33:03,840
Speaker 1: in a way that a lay person can appreciate what

580
00:33:03,880 --> 00:33:07,000
Speaker 1: you're saying, as opposed to getting into the weeds with

581
00:33:07,080 --> 00:33:10,200
Speaker 1: some of the more esoteric right. And I mean that

582
00:33:10,320 --> 00:33:12,480
Speaker 1: is going on behind the scenes, by the way. So

583
00:33:12,520 --> 00:33:15,959
Speaker 1: I am taking the fibid ACHIESE and the Demark indicators

584
00:33:15,960 --> 00:33:18,680
Speaker 1: and applying them to the ratios, and that all goes

585
00:33:18,720 --> 00:33:22,480
Speaker 1: into the analysis. But I don't do anybody any favors

586
00:33:22,520 --> 00:33:25,520
Speaker 1: by getting too in the weeds with those indicators. But rather,

587
00:33:26,120 --> 00:33:29,280
Speaker 1: you know, explain my discipline and and then you know,

588
00:33:29,360 --> 00:33:32,120
Speaker 1: explain the takeaways in a way that people can understand them.

589
00:33:32,160 --> 00:33:37,120
Speaker 1: So demark is really fascinating. Um set of technicals. I

590
00:33:37,200 --> 00:33:41,880
Speaker 1: don't know how they work. They're they're really quite woman

591
00:33:41,920 --> 00:33:45,920
Speaker 1: explaining that what our demark indicators and how do they work?

592
00:33:46,000 --> 00:33:48,600
Speaker 1: You know, there there's so many of them, and I

593
00:33:48,680 --> 00:33:51,560
Speaker 1: honestly only scratch the surface with the Demark indicators that

594
00:33:51,600 --> 00:33:55,160
Speaker 1: are available to us. I know, it's a it's an

595
00:33:55,200 --> 00:33:58,200
Speaker 1: option on the Bloomer. You can add it. They have

596
00:33:58,320 --> 00:34:00,880
Speaker 1: a right, they have a service on the Bloomberg terminal,

597
00:34:00,920 --> 00:34:04,360
Speaker 1: which I do use and use it quite a lot actually,

598
00:34:04,800 --> 00:34:07,080
Speaker 1: And to me, you know, I find value in the

599
00:34:07,120 --> 00:34:11,400
Speaker 1: indicators that they provide um in identifying inflection points. And

600
00:34:11,400 --> 00:34:13,759
Speaker 1: it's the closest thing that I have to something that's

601
00:34:13,800 --> 00:34:17,400
Speaker 1: a coincident indicator of inflections. And as you could imagine,

602
00:34:17,440 --> 00:34:20,680
Speaker 1: most technical indicators tend to have a lag them because

603
00:34:20,680 --> 00:34:23,319
Speaker 1: they're moving average base, so it's just inherent that they

604
00:34:23,320 --> 00:34:26,440
Speaker 1: have that lag. But there's something about the demark indicators,

605
00:34:26,440 --> 00:34:28,600
Speaker 1: and at least the ones that I use in their construction,

606
00:34:29,120 --> 00:34:31,120
Speaker 1: that can get us a bit closer to the actual

607
00:34:31,160 --> 00:34:34,840
Speaker 1: inflection point. Now, Unfortunately, like any indicator, because there is

608
00:34:34,880 --> 00:34:37,320
Speaker 1: no you know, at one all or you know, holy Grail,

609
00:34:37,920 --> 00:34:41,200
Speaker 1: we have to cross reference the demark indicators with other tools,

610
00:34:41,520 --> 00:34:44,759
Speaker 1: whether it's the stochastics which will also give you sort

611
00:34:44,800 --> 00:34:48,680
Speaker 1: of an overbought over sold reading, or or momentum based tools.

612
00:34:49,200 --> 00:34:52,080
Speaker 1: Those taken together can give you the best takeaway. And

613
00:34:52,160 --> 00:34:54,960
Speaker 1: so we don't take every signal for face value, but

614
00:34:55,080 --> 00:34:57,359
Speaker 1: rather say, okay, what are the probabilities here based on

615
00:34:57,440 --> 00:35:00,359
Speaker 1: what everything else is saying? So what are what are

616
00:35:00,400 --> 00:35:04,160
Speaker 1: some of your go to indicator? What if you had

617
00:35:04,200 --> 00:35:06,319
Speaker 1: to say, this is where I begin, this is my

618
00:35:06,400 --> 00:35:08,600
Speaker 1: most important I'm going to guess it's going to be

619
00:35:08,640 --> 00:35:11,640
Speaker 1: trend because you've emphasized that so many times. Yeah, it

620
00:35:11,760 --> 00:35:14,719
Speaker 1: is trend, especially in a trending tape. So I would

621
00:35:14,760 --> 00:35:16,960
Speaker 1: say in a non trending tape, which of course there's

622
00:35:17,000 --> 00:35:20,640
Speaker 1: an art and identifying what kind of environment you're in, um,

623
00:35:20,840 --> 00:35:23,960
Speaker 1: I'll use more of the overbought over souled measures sometimes,

624
00:35:24,239 --> 00:35:26,600
Speaker 1: you know, it depends on the timeframe as well, So

625
00:35:26,719 --> 00:35:31,160
Speaker 1: theoretically every indicator should apply over every time frame, almost

626
00:35:31,200 --> 00:35:33,799
Speaker 1: fractal in that way. And yet I found in my

627
00:35:33,880 --> 00:35:37,160
Speaker 1: experience that that I get more use from the OSCI

628
00:35:37,200 --> 00:35:40,960
Speaker 1: leaders in you know, short term, you know environment. So

629
00:35:41,080 --> 00:35:43,120
Speaker 1: looking at say the intra day charts, looking at a

630
00:35:43,120 --> 00:35:46,080
Speaker 1: thirty minute bar chart, oft the SMP futures, I'm actually

631
00:35:46,120 --> 00:35:48,799
Speaker 1: more inclined to use an overboard over sould measure than

632
00:35:48,840 --> 00:35:51,560
Speaker 1: a trend following device. It's just a matter of preference,

633
00:35:51,880 --> 00:35:54,319
Speaker 1: sort of like a trading tool. But I would say

634
00:35:54,360 --> 00:35:56,160
Speaker 1: if I had to take my one indicator to the

635
00:35:56,200 --> 00:35:59,160
Speaker 1: deserted island, would probably be the mac D indicator, which

636
00:35:59,200 --> 00:36:03,440
Speaker 1: stands for moving average convergence divergence, and that has been

637
00:36:03,480 --> 00:36:07,280
Speaker 1: a really helpful trend fall engage. It's very price range.

638
00:36:07,520 --> 00:36:09,440
Speaker 1: It's not an envelope as much as it is it's

639
00:36:09,480 --> 00:36:12,600
Speaker 1: a spread between two moving averages. And and what's nice

640
00:36:12,600 --> 00:36:14,799
Speaker 1: about it, it has a signal line, so it has

641
00:36:14,800 --> 00:36:17,399
Speaker 1: a smooth version of the data itself that gives you

642
00:36:17,800 --> 00:36:20,400
Speaker 1: distinct buy and sell signals and there and you know,

643
00:36:20,440 --> 00:36:22,360
Speaker 1: it takes out some of that gray area, right, So

644
00:36:22,400 --> 00:36:24,200
Speaker 1: it's either on a buy or a cell signal, And

645
00:36:24,239 --> 00:36:26,800
Speaker 1: of course there's nuances to it, but to me to

646
00:36:27,120 --> 00:36:29,600
Speaker 1: to try to capture those let's call it two to

647
00:36:29,680 --> 00:36:32,759
Speaker 1: three month moves, which I think really is where we

648
00:36:32,800 --> 00:36:35,080
Speaker 1: are in the market right now, especially in equities that

649
00:36:35,520 --> 00:36:37,920
Speaker 1: you can't afford to miss o's anymore. You know, used

650
00:36:37,960 --> 00:36:40,040
Speaker 1: to be you said it and forget it and ride

651
00:36:40,040 --> 00:36:42,640
Speaker 1: the long term trend. But quite frankly, now you know

652
00:36:42,680 --> 00:36:45,719
Speaker 1: there's such a guess pressure on people to perform on

653
00:36:45,719 --> 00:36:48,400
Speaker 1: a quarterly or even monthly basis these days that they

654
00:36:48,440 --> 00:36:52,040
Speaker 1: really need to capture these moves and the weekly MACDI indicators.

655
00:36:52,040 --> 00:36:53,960
Speaker 1: So looking at it macdie and a weekly bar chart

656
00:36:53,960 --> 00:36:56,480
Speaker 1: can be really a great tool for that. So you

657
00:36:56,520 --> 00:37:00,520
Speaker 1: mentioned when you're in a non trending market, when you're

658
00:37:00,520 --> 00:37:04,080
Speaker 1: in a range bound market until this last leg began,

659
00:37:04,120 --> 00:37:06,239
Speaker 1: and I want to say, sometime towards the end of

660
00:37:06,280 --> 00:37:09,440
Speaker 1: the summer last year, what was it eighteen months or

661
00:37:09,440 --> 00:37:11,879
Speaker 1: twenty four months of not a whole lot of progress.

662
00:37:12,719 --> 00:37:15,520
Speaker 1: What were you looking at during that period when we

663
00:37:15,520 --> 00:37:18,480
Speaker 1: were range bound and what told you, hey, we're breaking

664
00:37:18,480 --> 00:37:21,120
Speaker 1: out of this range? What was what was the big

665
00:37:21,160 --> 00:37:23,880
Speaker 1: signal there? You know that in terms of what I

666
00:37:23,920 --> 00:37:26,120
Speaker 1: was looking at it, you know that that period that,

667
00:37:26,239 --> 00:37:31,959
Speaker 1: by the way, is that I want to say mostly yeah,

668
00:37:32,200 --> 00:37:35,200
Speaker 1: I guess really at the end of two fifteen, it

669
00:37:35,280 --> 00:37:37,600
Speaker 1: was still you know, it was it was morphine into

670
00:37:37,640 --> 00:37:40,200
Speaker 1: that sort of range bound tape. But what was range

671
00:37:40,239 --> 00:37:42,440
Speaker 1: bound here in the US was actually much more of

672
00:37:42,480 --> 00:37:46,280
Speaker 1: a correction in international market. So if you looked at Japan,

673
00:37:46,400 --> 00:37:49,000
Speaker 1: or if you looked at European benchmarks, you'll see that

674
00:37:49,040 --> 00:37:52,800
Speaker 1: they really saw a pronounced corrective phase. And what captured

675
00:37:52,840 --> 00:37:55,440
Speaker 1: that was not the MACD indicators so much on the

676
00:37:55,480 --> 00:37:57,880
Speaker 1: weeklies because that was a bit noisy. But if you

677
00:37:57,880 --> 00:38:01,360
Speaker 1: looked on the monthlies, you actually saw a macde cell

678
00:38:01,400 --> 00:38:03,759
Speaker 1: signal in the monthly bar chart at the SMP five

679
00:38:04,120 --> 00:38:06,440
Speaker 1: D I believe it was oh gosh, I want to

680
00:38:06,480 --> 00:38:09,400
Speaker 1: say February two fifteen, So it got ahead of that

681
00:38:09,520 --> 00:38:12,960
Speaker 1: environment which created was, you know, a more challenging environment

682
00:38:13,000 --> 00:38:16,759
Speaker 1: for trend following. So with that macdi cell signal that

683
00:38:16,840 --> 00:38:18,960
Speaker 1: we had um, we were able to give a bit

684
00:38:19,000 --> 00:38:21,719
Speaker 1: more weight to the over Bodom SOULD measures knowing that

685
00:38:21,760 --> 00:38:24,640
Speaker 1: we were in some kind of corrective period. Um. In

686
00:38:24,719 --> 00:38:27,040
Speaker 1: addition to that, what we found in two thousand and

687
00:38:27,120 --> 00:38:30,560
Speaker 1: sixteen especially it was the year of the climactic lows,

688
00:38:30,640 --> 00:38:32,879
Speaker 1: right we saw at the February low of that year,

689
00:38:33,320 --> 00:38:36,239
Speaker 1: the Brexit low, and then the election low. All of

690
00:38:36,280 --> 00:38:39,359
Speaker 1: these were really climactic, and by that I mean the

691
00:38:39,400 --> 00:38:42,560
Speaker 1: emotions were really running high. You've got these massive declines

692
00:38:43,120 --> 00:38:46,279
Speaker 1: that almost by traditional methods would have looked like breakdowns

693
00:38:46,280 --> 00:38:49,120
Speaker 1: on the charts. But we have some tools called market

694
00:38:49,160 --> 00:38:53,040
Speaker 1: internal measures, which would be volume breath leadership and sentiment

695
00:38:53,280 --> 00:38:57,000
Speaker 1: that can help us identify these climaxes as they're underway.

696
00:38:57,080 --> 00:39:00,000
Speaker 1: So volume, you know, to circle back in the converse

697
00:39:00,000 --> 00:39:02,799
Speaker 1: station to volume. I do look at it on an

698
00:39:02,840 --> 00:39:05,680
Speaker 1: aggregate basis, and when it tends to spike is when

699
00:39:05,719 --> 00:39:09,040
Speaker 1: it actually holds information, because that's more emotionally charged trading

700
00:39:09,120 --> 00:39:12,480
Speaker 1: to change. Not necessarily the base rate that matters, that's right,

701
00:39:12,480 --> 00:39:14,319
Speaker 1: So it's not even the level. I'm just looking for

702
00:39:14,440 --> 00:39:18,320
Speaker 1: spikes and the market internal measures that I mentioned, those

703
00:39:18,440 --> 00:39:22,520
Speaker 1: really are to me the most informational win they're at extremes. Otherwise,

704
00:39:23,680 --> 00:39:26,040
Speaker 1: what are you looking at? Internal advancers and decliners would

705
00:39:26,040 --> 00:39:28,440
Speaker 1: certainly be a breath measure that I look at. I

706
00:39:28,480 --> 00:39:30,520
Speaker 1: look at them on a cumulative basis and also an

707
00:39:30,560 --> 00:39:33,200
Speaker 1: oscillating basis, and you know, things like the percentage of

708
00:39:33,239 --> 00:39:37,160
Speaker 1: stocks above their fifty day moving averages and and sentiment.

709
00:39:37,200 --> 00:39:39,919
Speaker 1: I tend to look at the VIX, but I'd say

710
00:39:39,920 --> 00:39:42,200
Speaker 1: even more so, I look at something called the CNN

711
00:39:42,280 --> 00:39:45,520
Speaker 1: Fear and Greed Index, which incorporates the VIX, but also

712
00:39:45,640 --> 00:39:49,000
Speaker 1: put call ratios and junk bond demand, things that are

713
00:39:49,040 --> 00:39:52,680
Speaker 1: transactionally base gages of sentiments. So I tend to find

714
00:39:52,680 --> 00:39:54,520
Speaker 1: a lot of value in that and right now we're

715
00:39:54,520 --> 00:39:58,520
Speaker 1: actually seeing an extreme in that in that sentiment measure.

716
00:39:59,000 --> 00:40:01,520
Speaker 1: Now in terms of that environment, um you know, we

717
00:40:01,560 --> 00:40:05,680
Speaker 1: did see some major oversold extremes in these market internals

718
00:40:05,719 --> 00:40:09,000
Speaker 1: at those lows that made them appear more treatable. Now

719
00:40:09,000 --> 00:40:12,280
Speaker 1: with the breakout, it's really when we saw the SMP

720
00:40:12,360 --> 00:40:16,279
Speaker 1: exceed resistance based on previous highs, that we could get

721
00:40:16,280 --> 00:40:19,239
Speaker 1: confident that that I was ready to run again. So

722
00:40:19,480 --> 00:40:22,839
Speaker 1: when was that? I remember the breakout and we've talked

723
00:40:22,840 --> 00:40:26,479
Speaker 1: about this in the past, was a big, fresh old

724
00:40:26,480 --> 00:40:31,080
Speaker 1: time high's first time in thirteen years, but um or

725
00:40:31,200 --> 00:40:35,240
Speaker 1: or above levels previously set in oh seven and two thousand.

726
00:40:35,600 --> 00:40:40,399
Speaker 1: But what was the breakout in was about I'd say

727
00:40:40,480 --> 00:40:43,319
Speaker 1: July of two thousand sixteen is when we broke out.

728
00:40:43,480 --> 00:40:45,319
Speaker 1: You know, that was on back of the Brexit low.

729
00:40:45,800 --> 00:40:49,640
Speaker 1: And that breakout yielded a measured move price projection, which

730
00:40:49,719 --> 00:40:52,640
Speaker 1: is a very common way of driving an upside target

731
00:40:52,680 --> 00:40:55,400
Speaker 1: when you don't really have resistance to use, and that

732
00:40:55,480 --> 00:40:57,840
Speaker 1: gave us a target of that at that time of

733
00:40:57,840 --> 00:41:02,640
Speaker 1: about dred which we reached of course, or the SMP

734
00:41:02,680 --> 00:41:05,879
Speaker 1: five reached in I think it was Q two and

735
00:41:06,080 --> 00:41:08,160
Speaker 1: we met some resistance there, which is also a very

736
00:41:08,239 --> 00:41:11,759
Speaker 1: natural occurrence. Now that we've seen a subsequent breakout above

737
00:41:11,840 --> 00:41:14,719
Speaker 1: that level, we were able to reassign another measured move

738
00:41:14,760 --> 00:41:18,920
Speaker 1: price projection in this case of about Oh really, and

739
00:41:19,080 --> 00:41:22,359
Speaker 1: right now we're still about thirty points away points away

740
00:41:22,400 --> 00:41:28,960
Speaker 1: from twenty were approaching, and I think, you know, it

741
00:41:29,000 --> 00:41:32,200
Speaker 1: won't be a straight path higher up to but I

742
00:41:32,239 --> 00:41:35,640
Speaker 1: think it's a viable target based on the trajectory of

743
00:41:35,680 --> 00:41:39,120
Speaker 1: the trend, and so that's a context within which we

744
00:41:39,239 --> 00:41:42,640
Speaker 1: view everything else. So you mentioned the VIX, We should

745
00:41:42,719 --> 00:41:49,280
Speaker 1: really talk about it because it's pretty much at record lows. UM.

746
00:41:49,320 --> 00:41:53,120
Speaker 1: The argument seems to go something like, the VIX is

747
00:41:53,160 --> 00:41:57,759
Speaker 1: showing terrible complacency and this all ends badly versus Hey,

748
00:41:57,800 --> 00:42:00,600
Speaker 1: the early nineties, the VIX was in the routines and

749
00:42:00,719 --> 00:42:03,640
Speaker 1: stayed there for years, and you still have another seven

750
00:42:03,719 --> 00:42:06,799
Speaker 1: years of well market to go. How do you look

751
00:42:06,840 --> 00:42:08,480
Speaker 1: at the VIX. What do you think it means? Well,

752
00:42:08,480 --> 00:42:10,759
Speaker 1: what I don't look at it um probably in the

753
00:42:10,800 --> 00:42:13,640
Speaker 1: same way as a derivatives trader might, for example, but

754
00:42:13,800 --> 00:42:16,880
Speaker 1: rather as a gauge of sentiment and something that tends

755
00:42:16,880 --> 00:42:19,560
Speaker 1: to have an inverse relationship to the SMP five hundred,

756
00:42:19,680 --> 00:42:23,440
Speaker 1: so in that since it can hold some information, however,

757
00:42:23,520 --> 00:42:27,520
Speaker 1: I care most about when it spikes, and it's it's

758
00:42:27,600 --> 00:42:31,000
Speaker 1: difficult to identify when that might occur. We do have

759
00:42:31,040 --> 00:42:34,000
Speaker 1: some tools that can assist in that, you know, overbought over,

760
00:42:34,040 --> 00:42:36,799
Speaker 1: SOULD measures, things like that. But the way I see

761
00:42:36,800 --> 00:42:39,759
Speaker 1: the VIX is just as one gauge of sentiment, and

762
00:42:39,800 --> 00:42:41,920
Speaker 1: what we've had to do with the the fact that

763
00:42:41,920 --> 00:42:45,320
Speaker 1: it keeps making new loads, is to reset our extreme

764
00:42:46,040 --> 00:42:50,040
Speaker 1: levels or thresholds for that overly complacent reading, which I

765
00:42:50,040 --> 00:42:53,880
Speaker 1: would argue now it is there so spikes to twelve,

766
00:42:54,760 --> 00:42:57,600
Speaker 1: which is like a big percentage move from where it is.

767
00:42:58,040 --> 00:43:01,760
Speaker 1: But twelve or even fifteen is so low for the VIX.

768
00:43:02,360 --> 00:43:05,279
Speaker 1: What what might thought tell us? Well, you know, for me,

769
00:43:05,320 --> 00:43:07,240
Speaker 1: if if we see it, you know, spike to twelve,

770
00:43:07,280 --> 00:43:09,160
Speaker 1: my guess is that we're getting a pull back to

771
00:43:09,160 --> 00:43:11,239
Speaker 1: at least the fifty day moving average and the SMP

772
00:43:11,360 --> 00:43:13,640
Speaker 1: five It wouldn't take much to get the VIX to

773
00:43:13,680 --> 00:43:17,120
Speaker 1: that level. The spikes tend to last maybe two weeks

774
00:43:17,120 --> 00:43:20,759
Speaker 1: in duration at most, so you have to be very

775
00:43:20,840 --> 00:43:22,640
Speaker 1: quick to act on it when you start to see

776
00:43:22,680 --> 00:43:25,399
Speaker 1: it maybe inch above its twenty day or fifty day

777
00:43:25,400 --> 00:43:27,719
Speaker 1: moving average of its own. It is not really a

778
00:43:27,760 --> 00:43:32,440
Speaker 1: trending index, so we have to be careful using tools

779
00:43:32,480 --> 00:43:36,800
Speaker 1: like moving averages and and you know, identifying levels because

780
00:43:36,840 --> 00:43:40,000
Speaker 1: maybe they're less important. What what are your thoughts about

781
00:43:40,080 --> 00:43:44,040
Speaker 1: the argument that some have made that well, so many

782
00:43:44,080 --> 00:43:49,359
Speaker 1: people have moved from stock picking and active management too.

783
00:43:50,239 --> 00:43:52,960
Speaker 1: You have five trillion a black Rock and four trillion

784
00:43:53,160 --> 00:43:56,800
Speaker 1: at Vanguard. I think Vanguard is now four point four trillion,

785
00:43:57,640 --> 00:44:02,759
Speaker 1: of which two thirds at Vanguard is passive, and um

786
00:44:03,080 --> 00:44:05,360
Speaker 1: I think once it gets half at black Rock is passive,

787
00:44:05,680 --> 00:44:09,520
Speaker 1: that's trillions of dollars that used to be actively in

788
00:44:09,560 --> 00:44:12,120
Speaker 1: the market. What does it mean that so much money

789
00:44:12,520 --> 00:44:16,960
Speaker 1: is now passively allocated? What what might that mean to

790
00:44:16,960 --> 00:44:19,719
Speaker 1: the VIX, if anything at all? You know, I'm not

791
00:44:19,760 --> 00:44:22,640
Speaker 1: sure how it would affect the VEX, except to say that,

792
00:44:22,680 --> 00:44:25,319
Speaker 1: you know, it should contribute to the trending nature of

793
00:44:25,360 --> 00:44:27,960
Speaker 1: the tape and there and also would see the VIX

794
00:44:28,000 --> 00:44:31,359
Speaker 1: sort of, you know, flounder at low levels as as

795
00:44:31,400 --> 00:44:34,920
Speaker 1: the major indices forged higher, and whether it's passively or

796
00:44:34,960 --> 00:44:37,880
Speaker 1: actively driven at the end of the day, and we

797
00:44:37,960 --> 00:44:39,960
Speaker 1: want to just be on the right side of the

798
00:44:40,000 --> 00:44:43,440
Speaker 1: moving averages and of the momentum behind the market, regardless

799
00:44:43,480 --> 00:44:46,759
Speaker 1: of what those momentum forces maybe, And so you know,

800
00:44:46,800 --> 00:44:50,360
Speaker 1: our goal is to understand when the loss of momentum

801
00:44:50,440 --> 00:44:52,520
Speaker 1: is great enough to lead to a shift in in

802
00:44:52,560 --> 00:44:56,080
Speaker 1: that trend that we need to take action around. So

803
00:44:56,239 --> 00:44:58,480
Speaker 1: it just depends on your time frame at that stage.

804
00:44:58,600 --> 00:44:59,920
Speaker 1: You know, do you do you want to miss the

805
00:45:00,000 --> 00:45:03,080
Speaker 1: a three percent pullback or are you okay with that?

806
00:45:03,320 --> 00:45:05,920
Speaker 1: Are uka sitting through that? So that becomes a matter

807
00:45:06,000 --> 00:45:11,160
Speaker 1: of preference, and you reference sentiment. I've always found sentiment

808
00:45:11,400 --> 00:45:16,920
Speaker 1: such a challenge to trade off of accepted extremes. So

809
00:45:17,000 --> 00:45:20,600
Speaker 1: what do you you reference the three percent pullback? Can

810
00:45:20,719 --> 00:45:23,759
Speaker 1: you use sentiment to anticipate something like that? What is

811
00:45:23,800 --> 00:45:27,400
Speaker 1: what is sentiment? Really it's relevant to the conversation right

812
00:45:27,440 --> 00:45:30,120
Speaker 1: now because we do have that extreme reading in the

813
00:45:30,160 --> 00:45:32,719
Speaker 1: CNN Fear and Greed Index, for one, which is enhancing

814
00:45:32,719 --> 00:45:36,400
Speaker 1: that low reading in the VIX. We're at an extreme rate.

815
00:45:36,480 --> 00:45:40,000
Speaker 1: So you mentioned an extreme I think so I think

816
00:45:40,040 --> 00:45:42,399
Speaker 1: we've finally reached that for the first time since March

817
00:45:42,480 --> 00:45:45,840
Speaker 1: based on this one measure, and what I've identified is

818
00:45:45,920 --> 00:45:48,040
Speaker 1: It typically has a lead time of a few weeks

819
00:45:48,080 --> 00:45:50,160
Speaker 1: before you see it, and it's a short term peak,

820
00:45:50,239 --> 00:45:53,799
Speaker 1: not not anything you know, really worrisome orbarish, but a

821
00:45:53,840 --> 00:45:56,560
Speaker 1: short term peak tends to unfold in the SMP five

822
00:45:57,320 --> 00:45:59,880
Speaker 1: a couple few weeks after you get the extremes in

823
00:46:00,080 --> 00:46:02,200
Speaker 1: measures of sentiments, So I think it can be helpful

824
00:46:02,239 --> 00:46:06,000
Speaker 1: in that regard. However, I do give more weight to

825
00:46:06,040 --> 00:46:09,400
Speaker 1: the momentum gauges or the trendfall engages, whether it's a

826
00:46:09,520 --> 00:46:13,600
Speaker 1: MACD indicator or you know, some kind of oscilator. Those

827
00:46:13,680 --> 00:46:15,960
Speaker 1: to me take precedence because they're a little bit closer

828
00:46:16,000 --> 00:46:18,839
Speaker 1: to the price data that the market is giving us.

829
00:46:19,560 --> 00:46:23,160
Speaker 1: And the CNN Fear and Greed Index, what else goes

830
00:46:23,200 --> 00:46:25,760
Speaker 1: into that besides the VIX? Because I know a number

831
00:46:25,800 --> 00:46:29,120
Speaker 1: of different um firms have put out their own Fear

832
00:46:29,120 --> 00:46:32,440
Speaker 1: and Greed Index and they very quickly seemed to top

833
00:46:32,560 --> 00:46:36,520
Speaker 1: or bottom rapidly. It was sort of surprising that the

834
00:46:36,520 --> 00:46:40,719
Speaker 1: news flow changed and suddenly they all plummeted um. So

835
00:46:40,760 --> 00:46:43,320
Speaker 1: what else is in that that index? So it's the VIX,

836
00:46:43,440 --> 00:46:47,840
Speaker 1: the put call ratios, junk bond demand, safe haven demand,

837
00:46:48,320 --> 00:46:51,600
Speaker 1: there's a momentum reading there's a breath reading based on

838
00:46:51,680 --> 00:46:55,840
Speaker 1: advancers and decliners, and I think I'm forgetting one, but

839
00:46:55,960 --> 00:46:58,400
Speaker 1: taken together, I think you're actually getting a nice system

840
00:46:58,440 --> 00:47:01,560
Speaker 1: of checks and balances. And what I found is, as

841
00:47:01,280 --> 00:47:04,640
Speaker 1: an oscillating measure, it's much better than the average sentiment

842
00:47:04,640 --> 00:47:08,960
Speaker 1: engage that we all grew up with in a way. Yeah,

843
00:47:09,000 --> 00:47:12,960
Speaker 1: the poles and the surveys at identifying market tops, not

844
00:47:13,040 --> 00:47:15,960
Speaker 1: just market bottoms. Most every sentiment gage is quite good

845
00:47:15,960 --> 00:47:19,640
Speaker 1: at helping us identify market bottoms when the when the

846
00:47:19,640 --> 00:47:23,960
Speaker 1: fear levels spike and everybody's capitulating, it just shows up everywhere. Yeah,

847
00:47:23,960 --> 00:47:25,680
Speaker 1: it does show up, and it's a bit you know,

848
00:47:25,840 --> 00:47:27,920
Speaker 1: easier if you will. And maybe that's because it's been

849
00:47:28,440 --> 00:47:31,799
Speaker 1: more often a bull market than not, so maybe that's why.

850
00:47:31,880 --> 00:47:34,960
Speaker 1: But this, the CNN Fair Agreed Index, tends to be

851
00:47:35,040 --> 00:47:38,000
Speaker 1: a bit better at market tops. So there are a

852
00:47:38,120 --> 00:47:42,000
Speaker 1: number of indicators that in the modern era have seemed

853
00:47:42,000 --> 00:47:45,520
Speaker 1: to have sort of fallen by the wayside. And I

854
00:47:45,640 --> 00:47:48,080
Speaker 1: kind of have the put coal ratio on the edge

855
00:47:48,080 --> 00:47:52,239
Speaker 1: of that. So do you remember the odd lots um indicator,

856
00:47:52,320 --> 00:47:56,280
Speaker 1: And then there was the end of week money flow indicators.

857
00:47:56,960 --> 00:47:59,800
Speaker 1: Those things all seem to have just withered away because

858
00:48:00,200 --> 00:48:02,960
Speaker 1: who cares about odd lots and money flow? Is is

859
00:48:03,520 --> 00:48:07,360
Speaker 1: it's so instantaneous these days that it doesn't seem to

860
00:48:07,600 --> 00:48:10,919
Speaker 1: have the same impact. Where do you put the ratio?

861
00:48:10,480 --> 00:48:14,640
Speaker 1: The ratio for MEUM burned me a little bit in

862
00:48:14,640 --> 00:48:17,279
Speaker 1: in two thousand and eight, and it's when you know,

863
00:48:17,360 --> 00:48:22,279
Speaker 1: the extremes became more extreme. So you know, I have

864
00:48:22,320 --> 00:48:24,560
Speaker 1: a little bad taste in my math from that UM

865
00:48:24,920 --> 00:48:27,759
Speaker 1: that period, and what it's actually done in a way

866
00:48:28,000 --> 00:48:30,840
Speaker 1: is led me to give them not no weight, but

867
00:48:30,960 --> 00:48:33,120
Speaker 1: certainly less weight. And that's why I like that they're

868
00:48:33,160 --> 00:48:36,600
Speaker 1: one out of maybe seven components of that sentiment indicator,

869
00:48:37,120 --> 00:48:40,080
Speaker 1: because you know there in's that that checks and balance

870
00:48:40,120 --> 00:48:42,320
Speaker 1: the system that helps you understand when an extreme is

871
00:48:42,360 --> 00:48:47,600
Speaker 1: really extreme. These days, UM, any other sentiment matter worth Uh?

872
00:48:48,800 --> 00:48:50,920
Speaker 1: I don't think so. I think again, it's really more

873
00:48:50,960 --> 00:48:54,680
Speaker 1: about trend following, support and resistance overbought over sold measures

874
00:48:54,719 --> 00:48:57,240
Speaker 1: that those relate are more important, and that the market

875
00:48:57,239 --> 00:49:01,000
Speaker 1: internal measures. While they can be very helpful, their informational

876
00:49:01,040 --> 00:49:04,120
Speaker 1: at extremes, and I think people like to talk about

877
00:49:04,160 --> 00:49:06,719
Speaker 1: them because they tell more of a story and we

878
00:49:06,760 --> 00:49:09,520
Speaker 1: all like a good story and want to understand why

879
00:49:09,600 --> 00:49:12,920
Speaker 1: something's happening. But in reality, the charts are designed to

880
00:49:12,960 --> 00:49:15,880
Speaker 1: help us understand what's happening, They're not really designed to

881
00:49:15,920 --> 00:49:18,960
Speaker 1: give you that story. So I almost think that sentiment

882
00:49:19,239 --> 00:49:22,879
Speaker 1: and breath and leadership get a little too much press

883
00:49:23,000 --> 00:49:27,120
Speaker 1: before before I go to my favorite questions, you touched

884
00:49:27,120 --> 00:49:30,160
Speaker 1: on a subject that's one of my favorite subjects. So

885
00:49:30,400 --> 00:49:32,720
Speaker 1: why is it that we all like a good story?

886
00:49:32,800 --> 00:49:36,319
Speaker 1: And how potentially dangerous are those stories? How can they

887
00:49:36,400 --> 00:49:38,799
Speaker 1: lead us astray? Well? And that's what I love about

888
00:49:38,800 --> 00:49:42,680
Speaker 1: the charts is that they they sort of isolate exactly

889
00:49:42,719 --> 00:49:46,120
Speaker 1: what is happening from a supply demand perspective without getting

890
00:49:46,160 --> 00:49:49,200
Speaker 1: tainted by the stories. And it's not to say you

891
00:49:49,200 --> 00:49:52,200
Speaker 1: shouldn't have a reason to invest in something. There should

892
00:49:52,239 --> 00:49:55,280
Speaker 1: always be a reason. And however that reason has derived,

893
00:49:55,960 --> 00:49:59,440
Speaker 1: um you know, that's important because those are the drivers

894
00:49:59,480 --> 00:50:02,800
Speaker 1: of the trend. So there might be some fundamental story

895
00:50:03,200 --> 00:50:05,880
Speaker 1: that's very important to the future of a stock. I

896
00:50:06,120 --> 00:50:09,000
Speaker 1: would not never disagree with that, But when it comes

897
00:50:09,040 --> 00:50:13,920
Speaker 1: to just headlines and hearsay and anecdotal evidence of something,

898
00:50:14,000 --> 00:50:16,000
Speaker 1: I think it can be very dangerous. And that's why

899
00:50:16,040 --> 00:50:20,680
Speaker 1: the charts can help us sort of stay honest. So um,

900
00:50:21,080 --> 00:50:24,560
Speaker 1: I described that as monkeys love a good narrative and

901
00:50:24,560 --> 00:50:28,239
Speaker 1: and you explain the dangers of that perfectly. Let's let's

902
00:50:28,320 --> 00:50:32,160
Speaker 1: jump to my favorite questions. These are the questions I

903
00:50:32,200 --> 00:50:36,000
Speaker 1: ask all of my guests, um, some of which I've written,

904
00:50:36,040 --> 00:50:40,480
Speaker 1: some of which have come from readers and listeners, including

905
00:50:40,520 --> 00:50:43,800
Speaker 1: the first one. So what's the most important thing people

906
00:50:44,239 --> 00:50:48,520
Speaker 1: don't know about your background? Oh? The most important thing

907
00:50:48,600 --> 00:50:51,440
Speaker 1: people don't know. That's the most It could be the

908
00:50:51,480 --> 00:50:53,880
Speaker 1: most interesting. Doesn't have to be important, Yeah, I mean,

909
00:50:54,040 --> 00:50:55,920
Speaker 1: I think it's just the way you think about the

910
00:50:55,960 --> 00:51:01,080
Speaker 1: world and my background. I was not not a talented artist,

911
00:51:01,120 --> 00:51:03,520
Speaker 1: but I've always had an interest in art and things

912
00:51:03,560 --> 00:51:06,239
Speaker 1: that are sort of more visual in nature. So I

913
00:51:06,280 --> 00:51:08,400
Speaker 1: think that's you know, it's not something a lot of

914
00:51:08,440 --> 00:51:10,760
Speaker 1: people would know about me, but I enjoyed a painting

915
00:51:11,040 --> 00:51:16,799
Speaker 1: and creating things and a technician who's looking at at

916
00:51:16,920 --> 00:51:21,160
Speaker 1: visual data that's exactly right, and you know, it's something

917
00:51:21,160 --> 00:51:23,080
Speaker 1: that you can get lost in. And I think the

918
00:51:23,160 --> 00:51:25,320
Speaker 1: charts are in a way the same. And I spend

919
00:51:25,360 --> 00:51:28,400
Speaker 1: probably too much time making my charts look really pretty.

920
00:51:29,280 --> 00:51:33,160
Speaker 1: Tell us about some of your early mentors, you know,

921
00:51:33,320 --> 00:51:35,279
Speaker 1: really the people that I've worked for, I've been so

922
00:51:35,400 --> 00:51:38,960
Speaker 1: blessed in having exposure to them and also um to

923
00:51:39,040 --> 00:51:41,440
Speaker 1: be able to embrace their disciplines at a young age

924
00:51:41,440 --> 00:51:45,520
Speaker 1: where I was still somewhat impressionable and hadn't gotten set

925
00:51:45,560 --> 00:51:47,719
Speaker 1: in my ways yet. So it would have started with

926
00:51:47,760 --> 00:51:51,520
Speaker 1: Tom Dorisey at Dorsey Wright and Richmond who inspired me

927
00:51:51,560 --> 00:51:56,400
Speaker 1: and helped me understand how technical analysis fit with them

928
00:51:56,440 --> 00:51:58,880
Speaker 1: you know, everything else really in sort of the bigger

929
00:51:58,920 --> 00:52:02,120
Speaker 1: world of finance and in Wall Street, and and Dorsey

930
00:52:02,200 --> 00:52:04,360
Speaker 1: Right is still going strong. I think they sold the

931
00:52:04,360 --> 00:52:07,439
Speaker 1: company a couple of years in NASA NASTAC and they're

932
00:52:07,480 --> 00:52:10,960
Speaker 1: still they now. Tom Dorsey is putting out a number

933
00:52:11,080 --> 00:52:15,960
Speaker 1: of e t f s right, they ETFs. I'm not

934
00:52:16,000 --> 00:52:18,239
Speaker 1: sure how many, but they've had ETFs for a long

935
00:52:18,280 --> 00:52:21,400
Speaker 1: time and have ten billion or fifteen billion in a

936
00:52:21,760 --> 00:52:23,839
Speaker 1: m and then if if memory serves, Yeah, so they've

937
00:52:23,840 --> 00:52:27,880
Speaker 1: been very successful and certainly have a great following on

938
00:52:27,960 --> 00:52:31,400
Speaker 1: Wall Street. And you know from there, I worked for

939
00:52:31,440 --> 00:52:34,319
Speaker 1: someone named Mike Curly, and that was when I had

940
00:52:34,320 --> 00:52:38,160
Speaker 1: a stint in San Francisco working for a firm called

941
00:52:38,200 --> 00:52:40,319
Speaker 1: the offering, which was at the time you know, this

942
00:52:40,400 --> 00:52:43,280
Speaker 1: is late nineties, mind you, the investment bank of you Trade,

943
00:52:43,760 --> 00:52:45,799
Speaker 1: and we were bought by wit sound View, and so

944
00:52:45,880 --> 00:52:48,319
Speaker 1: I worked with Mike Curly and that was really my

945
00:52:48,360 --> 00:52:52,360
Speaker 1: first name is Yeah, he's been around and he was

946
00:52:52,760 --> 00:52:55,400
Speaker 1: sort of in the Navy and had just this really

947
00:52:55,440 --> 00:52:58,920
Speaker 1: interesting approach. You'll actually find a lot of technicians have

948
00:52:59,000 --> 00:53:01,520
Speaker 1: a military background owned or background in some kind of

949
00:53:01,760 --> 00:53:04,920
Speaker 1: engineering field. It just lends itself, you know, to that

950
00:53:05,000 --> 00:53:08,520
Speaker 1: kind of analysis. And so he taught me some structured, disciplined,

951
00:53:08,680 --> 00:53:10,520
Speaker 1: organized that's right, and that's where a lot of the

952
00:53:10,520 --> 00:53:15,040
Speaker 1: indicators that I used came from. It's from my Curli's discipline, um,

953
00:53:15,080 --> 00:53:16,719
Speaker 1: you know. And then beyond that, I worked for Rick

954
00:53:16,760 --> 00:53:19,839
Speaker 1: Benson your when I was at Morgan Stanley, and he

955
00:53:20,320 --> 00:53:23,400
Speaker 1: gave me exposure to some of the indicators that excuse me,

956
00:53:23,440 --> 00:53:26,080
Speaker 1: really differentiate my work, I'd say, from you know, the

957
00:53:26,640 --> 00:53:29,560
Speaker 1: counterparts at other firms, whether it be the cloud model,

958
00:53:29,600 --> 00:53:34,600
Speaker 1: which is also called Echi moku um and yeah, well

959
00:53:34,600 --> 00:53:37,880
Speaker 1: that actually it goes back to Japanese is that it

960
00:53:38,000 --> 00:53:41,640
Speaker 1: is I think equally as old as candlesticks, and in

961
00:53:41,680 --> 00:53:43,719
Speaker 1: the same way that they're designed to give you that

962
00:53:43,760 --> 00:53:46,080
Speaker 1: sort of one look of the chart, where you're getting

963
00:53:46,160 --> 00:53:48,560
Speaker 1: as much information as you can into that one view.

964
00:53:49,200 --> 00:53:51,719
Speaker 1: Um So, he exposed me to those which have been

965
00:53:51,960 --> 00:53:55,560
Speaker 1: invaluable in my work, and also the demark indicators he

966
00:53:56,000 --> 00:53:58,960
Speaker 1: taught me. So I've been very lucky to have people

967
00:53:59,040 --> 00:54:02,799
Speaker 1: like Rick and Mike and Tom as mentors, you know,

968
00:54:02,960 --> 00:54:05,560
Speaker 1: over my career. And also, you know, I've been highly

969
00:54:05,600 --> 00:54:09,919
Speaker 1: involved in the now named CMT Association. I was vice

970
00:54:09,960 --> 00:54:13,239
Speaker 1: president of that organization for some time and was able

971
00:54:13,280 --> 00:54:16,040
Speaker 1: to get to know, you know, people like Ralpheck Emporra, who,

972
00:54:16,280 --> 00:54:18,640
Speaker 1: by the way, you know, came to guest lecture that

973
00:54:18,680 --> 00:54:21,000
Speaker 1: class that I took in college, and he stood up

974
00:54:21,000 --> 00:54:22,919
Speaker 1: in front of the class and took the Wall Street

975
00:54:22,960 --> 00:54:25,040
Speaker 1: Journal and tour it in half and said, you don't

976
00:54:25,040 --> 00:54:28,360
Speaker 1: need this anymore and uh and boy he got our attention.

977
00:54:28,440 --> 00:54:31,000
Speaker 1: You know, all of our finance majors in the room.

978
00:54:31,120 --> 00:54:33,479
Speaker 1: It was pretty pretty neat. So a lot of people

979
00:54:33,480 --> 00:54:37,440
Speaker 1: to inspire me. Um So, you mentioned several mentors. What

980
00:54:37,480 --> 00:54:42,000
Speaker 1: about investors? What investors have influenced the way you look

981
00:54:42,080 --> 00:54:47,000
Speaker 1: at either markets or or individual stocks. Honestly, I haven't

982
00:54:47,000 --> 00:54:50,040
Speaker 1: found my inspiration in any of the investors, which, to

983
00:54:50,080 --> 00:54:52,200
Speaker 1: be honest, tend to be a bit more fundamentally or

984
00:54:52,280 --> 00:54:55,200
Speaker 1: macro oriented the ones that that we all know. Um.

985
00:54:55,239 --> 00:54:57,640
Speaker 1: So I've found it more in the tools that i've

986
00:54:58,120 --> 00:55:01,080
Speaker 1: you know, derived from my ment tours. So I don't

987
00:55:01,120 --> 00:55:04,520
Speaker 1: really have an inspiration in terms of my investing style, um,

988
00:55:04,640 --> 00:55:07,320
Speaker 1: except to say that that it really is you know, technical,

989
00:55:07,840 --> 00:55:11,080
Speaker 1: you know, technically oriented, and it came from you know,

990
00:55:11,080 --> 00:55:13,759
Speaker 1: studying for the CMT program and being inspired by some

991
00:55:13,800 --> 00:55:17,000
Speaker 1: of the methods that I read about in that program.

992
00:55:17,120 --> 00:55:20,960
Speaker 1: Let's talk about books. This is everybody's favorite question. Tell

993
00:55:21,040 --> 00:55:24,200
Speaker 1: us about some books you've read recently. They can be fiction,

994
00:55:24,280 --> 00:55:27,839
Speaker 1: non fiction, market related, not and and some of your

995
00:55:27,880 --> 00:55:30,600
Speaker 1: all time favorite books. Oh goodness, Well, that's a hard

996
00:55:30,680 --> 00:55:34,440
Speaker 1: question for a mom of three young children, where reading,

997
00:55:34,600 --> 00:55:37,000
Speaker 1: you know, time to read books is sort of you know,

998
00:55:37,040 --> 00:55:40,239
Speaker 1: it's hard to find that other than the hungry caterpillar?

999
00:55:40,360 --> 00:55:43,160
Speaker 1: What else? What else have you been looking at? You know,

1000
00:55:43,239 --> 00:55:45,319
Speaker 1: I like to read. I like a good beach read,

1001
00:55:45,360 --> 00:55:49,920
Speaker 1: to be honest, But that aside, you know, the demark indicators. Um,

1002
00:55:49,960 --> 00:55:52,680
Speaker 1: you know, I've I've read Jason Pearl's book probably most

1003
00:55:52,719 --> 00:55:56,520
Speaker 1: recently on those and and that's very accessible, and I think, um,

1004
00:55:56,560 --> 00:55:59,160
Speaker 1: you know, there's not enough literature out there on those,

1005
00:55:59,200 --> 00:56:02,440
Speaker 1: so I've appreciated that. And then it goes back to

1006
00:56:02,480 --> 00:56:05,880
Speaker 1: a lot of the textbooks on technical analysis, which you know,

1007
00:56:06,080 --> 00:56:07,360
Speaker 1: at the end of the day, it is somewhat of

1008
00:56:07,360 --> 00:56:10,400
Speaker 1: a mathematical discipline, so they're they're not gonna, you know,

1009
00:56:10,840 --> 00:56:13,120
Speaker 1: keep you up at night, but at least I'll give

1010
00:56:13,160 --> 00:56:15,520
Speaker 1: you the tools that you need, you know to So

1011
00:56:15,840 --> 00:56:19,239
Speaker 1: Edwards and McGee, right, the Martin Pring's book, you know,

1012
00:56:19,280 --> 00:56:22,000
Speaker 1: Technical Analysis Explained, which I'm sure has been updated a

1013
00:56:22,080 --> 00:56:25,040
Speaker 1: million times since I first read it. Um so more

1014
00:56:25,440 --> 00:56:28,279
Speaker 1: so those types of books as opposed to you know,

1015
00:56:28,520 --> 00:56:31,560
Speaker 1: Reminiscences of a stock Operator that type of thing, which

1016
00:56:31,640 --> 00:56:37,479
Speaker 1: is fascinating but really isn't much of a how to. Yeah,

1017
00:56:37,520 --> 00:56:40,080
Speaker 1: in a way, it's the right learn from others mistakes, right,

1018
00:56:40,600 --> 00:56:43,120
Speaker 1: Um So it's it's you know, the textbooks that for

1019
00:56:43,160 --> 00:56:46,440
Speaker 1: me have really helped me, you know, move my discipline forward.

1020
00:56:46,640 --> 00:56:50,600
Speaker 1: So so what's your guilty pleasure? Beach read? Oh, the

1021
00:56:50,600 --> 00:56:53,919
Speaker 1: beach reads Gosh right now I'm reading Hillbilly Elegy, which

1022
00:56:53,920 --> 00:56:57,040
Speaker 1: is a lot of people that yeah, yeah, I do,

1023
00:56:57,160 --> 00:56:59,920
Speaker 1: like I try to alternate, you know, fiction and nonfiction,

1024
00:57:00,080 --> 00:57:03,200
Speaker 1: just to mix things up. And UM, you know I

1025
00:57:03,680 --> 00:57:06,359
Speaker 1: just and then I had my US Weekly, so you

1026
00:57:06,400 --> 00:57:10,640
Speaker 1: know that is that is a good pleasure US Weekly. UM.

1027
00:57:10,680 --> 00:57:13,080
Speaker 1: So let's talk a little bit about how the industry

1028
00:57:13,080 --> 00:57:17,480
Speaker 1: has changed since you joined. Let's call it twenty years ago.

1029
00:57:17,560 --> 00:57:20,360
Speaker 1: Is that a fair number. So what's the biggest change

1030
00:57:20,440 --> 00:57:24,040
Speaker 1: that's taken place for you as a technician over that

1031
00:57:24,040 --> 00:57:27,560
Speaker 1: time period. It's really the acceptance of the discipline and

1032
00:57:27,680 --> 00:57:30,920
Speaker 1: it's it's not like it happened overnight, but certainly the

1033
00:57:31,000 --> 00:57:34,200
Speaker 1: acceptance of what we do every day. And by the way,

1034
00:57:34,240 --> 00:57:37,520
Speaker 1: most people don't do this as their primary career. They

1035
00:57:37,560 --> 00:57:39,840
Speaker 1: do it as Some are just hobbyists, you know, they

1036
00:57:39,920 --> 00:57:42,960
Speaker 1: do it for personal reasons to help their investing, and

1037
00:57:43,040 --> 00:57:45,360
Speaker 1: others are in a different seat, like they're a trader

1038
00:57:45,400 --> 00:57:48,600
Speaker 1: for a hedge fund or their portfolio manager out a

1039
00:57:48,680 --> 00:57:51,600
Speaker 1: mutual fund, trying to understand these things so they can

1040
00:57:51,720 --> 00:57:53,840
Speaker 1: use it in a in a way that um, you know,

1041
00:57:53,880 --> 00:57:57,480
Speaker 1: facilitates what they already do. And so, um, you know

1042
00:57:57,560 --> 00:58:00,520
Speaker 1: that the adoption has really gotten to the point where

1043
00:58:00,520 --> 00:58:03,360
Speaker 1: I'm not going to client meetings and having to pitch

1044
00:58:03,400 --> 00:58:06,200
Speaker 1: them on the value of technical analysis, but rather to

1045
00:58:06,280 --> 00:58:09,000
Speaker 1: focus on what we can really add value in, which

1046
00:58:09,040 --> 00:58:13,920
Speaker 1: is idea generation risk management, identifying important levels, and looking

1047
00:58:13,920 --> 00:58:17,960
Speaker 1: for opportunities. So so, given those changes over the past

1048
00:58:18,120 --> 00:58:20,320
Speaker 1: let's call it ten or twenty years, what do you

1049
00:58:20,360 --> 00:58:24,400
Speaker 1: see as the next set of changes within the industry.

1050
00:58:24,600 --> 00:58:27,040
Speaker 1: I think it must be. You know, we do a

1051
00:58:27,120 --> 00:58:29,440
Speaker 1: lot of project work for clients that's a bit more

1052
00:58:29,520 --> 00:58:33,000
Speaker 1: quantitative in its nature. I don't think you can make

1053
00:58:33,080 --> 00:58:36,919
Speaker 1: charts quantitative solely, but certainly with the tools that we have,

1054
00:58:37,520 --> 00:58:40,600
Speaker 1: you know, from the technologies that are now offered to us.

1055
00:58:40,680 --> 00:58:42,920
Speaker 1: I think there's a lot of upside in a planet

1056
00:58:42,960 --> 00:58:47,880
Speaker 1: more systematically and quantitatively and also in appliant more from

1057
00:58:47,920 --> 00:58:51,120
Speaker 1: a risk management perspective, which we all know is quite important.

1058
00:58:51,160 --> 00:58:53,680
Speaker 1: So I think that's going to be the next push

1059
00:58:53,720 --> 00:58:55,760
Speaker 1: and where there's a lot of upside, and I think

1060
00:58:55,760 --> 00:58:58,800
Speaker 1: it's an exciting field. I'll be attending a conference in

1061
00:58:58,880 --> 00:59:03,320
Speaker 1: October for the if TO organization, which is an international

1062
00:59:03,360 --> 00:59:07,000
Speaker 1: federation of technical analysts, and that conference is centering around

1063
00:59:07,080 --> 00:59:10,720
Speaker 1: AI and technical analysis, and I don't know enough about

1064
00:59:10,760 --> 00:59:13,200
Speaker 1: it yet, but I think there's some interesting things going

1065
00:59:13,200 --> 00:59:16,640
Speaker 1: on there that AI and technical analysis that sounds fascinating.

1066
00:59:16,880 --> 00:59:20,520
Speaker 1: That's really that's really interesting. Um there's a quote from

1067
00:59:20,600 --> 00:59:23,560
Speaker 1: Jeff Bezos that I love, and it says something along

1068
00:59:23,600 --> 00:59:28,440
Speaker 1: the lines of, uh, if we're not failing a lot,

1069
00:59:28,480 --> 00:59:31,919
Speaker 1: we're doing something wrong, meaning we have to constantly try

1070
00:59:32,000 --> 00:59:36,000
Speaker 1: things and and by definition some of those things won't

1071
00:59:36,000 --> 00:59:39,560
Speaker 1: work out. So with that as the preface, tell us

1072
00:59:39,880 --> 00:59:43,320
Speaker 1: about a time that you attempted something and failed and

1073
00:59:43,400 --> 00:59:46,640
Speaker 1: what you learned from that. Well, yeah, and I mean

1074
00:59:46,920 --> 00:59:48,959
Speaker 1: we could go back to the conversation about the pot

1075
00:59:48,960 --> 00:59:51,919
Speaker 1: call ratio, you know, in terms of two thousand and eight,

1076
00:59:51,960 --> 00:59:54,960
Speaker 1: where you know, I just stayed with it too long

1077
00:59:55,600 --> 00:59:58,000
Speaker 1: because I was giving too much weight to the market

1078
00:59:58,000 --> 01:00:01,600
Speaker 1: internals when I should have given more weight the momentum

1079
01:00:01,600 --> 01:00:05,040
Speaker 1: and trendfall engages, which I always advocated as more important.

1080
01:00:05,440 --> 01:00:07,760
Speaker 1: Um So when it actually came to the moment, I

1081
01:00:07,880 --> 01:00:12,240
Speaker 1: just I stayed in too long, is what happened. So

1082
01:00:12,240 --> 01:00:15,840
Speaker 1: so it was it was actually deviating from my discipline

1083
01:00:15,960 --> 01:00:19,000
Speaker 1: because I got married to my view. So so there

1084
01:00:19,120 --> 01:00:21,240
Speaker 1: is you know a lot of risk in that, especially

1085
01:00:21,280 --> 01:00:23,920
Speaker 1: from that top down perspective. And and we had to

1086
01:00:24,160 --> 01:00:28,080
Speaker 1: again keep ourselves honest by really adhering to the indicators,

1087
01:00:28,160 --> 01:00:31,800
Speaker 1: the trend falling indicators, especially to help you know, us

1088
01:00:31,960 --> 01:00:35,000
Speaker 1: determine our biases and and so, you know, as not

1089
01:00:35,080 --> 01:00:38,240
Speaker 1: to get too married to your views. So outside of

1090
01:00:38,240 --> 01:00:42,840
Speaker 1: the office, what do you do for relaxation and enjoyment? Oh, well,

1091
01:00:42,880 --> 01:00:46,120
Speaker 1: you know, I actually don't have a lot of time

1092
01:00:46,160 --> 01:00:48,640
Speaker 1: outside of the office, but just I spend time with

1093
01:00:48,680 --> 01:00:52,320
Speaker 1: my kids and and you know, enjoyed traveling. And am

1094
01:00:52,320 --> 01:00:54,320
Speaker 1: I remembering you were a runner for a long time.

1095
01:00:54,320 --> 01:00:56,640
Speaker 1: I'm a runner. I had sort of an avid runner,

1096
01:00:56,760 --> 01:00:58,800
Speaker 1: not very far and not very fast, but I still

1097
01:00:58,880 --> 01:01:04,640
Speaker 1: enjoy it. Um. I remember it was you and Jim

1098
01:01:04,640 --> 01:01:07,920
Speaker 1: Bianco and who else up in camp Co talk and

1099
01:01:07,960 --> 01:01:11,760
Speaker 1: I'm thinking, yeah, I'm just gonna sleep it. You guys

1100
01:01:11,760 --> 01:01:14,400
Speaker 1: were up and out running early. It puts me in

1101
01:01:14,440 --> 01:01:16,960
Speaker 1: a happy place and it clears my head. And I

1102
01:01:17,000 --> 01:01:19,439
Speaker 1: think that I found that and not that I get

1103
01:01:19,480 --> 01:01:22,080
Speaker 1: to paint often, but painting does that for me too.

1104
01:01:22,080 --> 01:01:24,680
Speaker 1: And I think it's healthy for everybody to be able

1105
01:01:24,720 --> 01:01:28,560
Speaker 1: to remove themselves from the market something different from what

1106
01:01:28,560 --> 01:01:32,720
Speaker 1: what the regular course of events. That's right? And um

1107
01:01:32,760 --> 01:01:37,080
Speaker 1: my last two and very favorite questions. So if a

1108
01:01:37,240 --> 01:01:40,760
Speaker 1: millennial or recent college grad came up to you and

1109
01:01:40,800 --> 01:01:44,320
Speaker 1: said they were looking for advice about a career in

1110
01:01:44,360 --> 01:01:47,960
Speaker 1: technical analysis, what would you tell them? This actually does

1111
01:01:48,040 --> 01:01:52,480
Speaker 1: happen often, so I would always say, you know, listen you,

1112
01:01:52,720 --> 01:01:55,560
Speaker 1: I don't know that there's a lot of job opportunity

1113
01:01:55,600 --> 01:01:59,240
Speaker 1: in technical analysis. As a purist UM sort of in

1114
01:01:59,520 --> 01:02:03,120
Speaker 1: my seat where I'm a sales side publishing technical strategists,

1115
01:02:03,520 --> 01:02:06,280
Speaker 1: there's not that many of us UM. And yet I

1116
01:02:06,320 --> 01:02:09,760
Speaker 1: think as a discipline something that that you should learn

1117
01:02:10,240 --> 01:02:13,560
Speaker 1: UM as one part of a bigger picture that by

1118
01:02:13,600 --> 01:02:16,919
Speaker 1: all means everybody should pursue the CMT should actually really

1119
01:02:16,920 --> 01:02:19,080
Speaker 1: take it upon themselves to learn it as a discipline

1120
01:02:19,440 --> 01:02:22,880
Speaker 1: not only for their career but also for their personal investing.

1121
01:02:23,000 --> 01:02:26,040
Speaker 1: I think it's invaluable and UM, you know, just to

1122
01:02:26,160 --> 01:02:29,040
Speaker 1: have I guess a bigger scope to what you're doing,

1123
01:02:29,200 --> 01:02:32,520
Speaker 1: whether it means also pursuing the cf A or something

1124
01:02:32,600 --> 01:02:36,160
Speaker 1: like this. UM. But as you know, a new UM,

1125
01:02:36,320 --> 01:02:39,600
Speaker 1: I guess, a new graduate going into a firm, I

1126
01:02:39,640 --> 01:02:42,720
Speaker 1: think a mistake that I made that UM. Now with

1127
01:02:42,800 --> 01:02:45,800
Speaker 1: some hindsight, I can say I would have benefited from

1128
01:02:45,800 --> 01:02:49,240
Speaker 1: really knowing what was going on around me in the firm,

1129
01:02:49,520 --> 01:02:52,800
Speaker 1: because I think, you know, we get so narrow focused

1130
01:02:52,840 --> 01:02:55,680
Speaker 1: and what our day to day job is, especially at

1131
01:02:55,880 --> 01:02:58,919
Speaker 1: a younger age, UM, but we lose sight of of

1132
01:02:59,080 --> 01:03:01,560
Speaker 1: how we fit in to the big picture. And I

1133
01:03:01,560 --> 01:03:03,840
Speaker 1: think just to know what's going on around you it's

1134
01:03:03,880 --> 01:03:08,440
Speaker 1: really obviously valuable. And our final question, what is it

1135
01:03:08,520 --> 01:03:13,240
Speaker 1: that you know about investing charting strategy today that you

1136
01:03:13,280 --> 01:03:16,320
Speaker 1: wish you knew twenty years ago? Oh gosh. I would

1137
01:03:16,360 --> 01:03:19,160
Speaker 1: say probably that demark indicators would be the first thing

1138
01:03:19,200 --> 01:03:22,640
Speaker 1: that come to mind as being a tool. UM so

1139
01:03:22,720 --> 01:03:25,360
Speaker 1: that that came in probably about halfway through my career,

1140
01:03:25,840 --> 01:03:28,120
Speaker 1: and it would have been great to have you know,

1141
01:03:28,120 --> 01:03:30,560
Speaker 1: known more about them in the earlier stages. I think

1142
01:03:30,600 --> 01:03:33,520
Speaker 1: that would have certainly helped um, you know, around two

1143
01:03:33,560 --> 01:03:35,920
Speaker 1: thousand for example, and you know when they would have

1144
01:03:35,960 --> 01:03:38,880
Speaker 1: been you know, added value in terms of the inflection

1145
01:03:38,920 --> 01:03:41,880
Speaker 1: points that we saw because that came without very much warning,

1146
01:03:41,920 --> 01:03:44,800
Speaker 1: as you could imagine, not a lot of divergences ahead

1147
01:03:44,840 --> 01:03:48,480
Speaker 1: of that peak. Well, thank you so much, Katie for

1148
01:03:48,520 --> 01:03:50,880
Speaker 1: being so generous with your time, and I will see

1149
01:03:50,920 --> 01:03:54,880
Speaker 1: you up at uh Well, I see you at Camp Montall.

1150
01:03:54,960 --> 01:03:58,320
Speaker 1: That sounds like we have been speaking with Katie Stockton.

1151
01:03:58,440 --> 01:04:01,920
Speaker 1: She is the chief Technicals Srategists at bt i G.

1152
01:04:02,760 --> 01:04:05,640
Speaker 1: If you enjoy this conversation, be sure and look up

1153
01:04:05,640 --> 01:04:08,080
Speaker 1: an inch or down an inch at any of the

1154
01:04:08,120 --> 01:04:12,040
Speaker 1: other hundred and fifty or so such conversations that we've

1155
01:04:12,080 --> 01:04:17,760
Speaker 1: had previously. We love your comments, feedback and suggestions right

1156
01:04:17,840 --> 01:04:21,520
Speaker 1: to us at m IB podcast at Bloomberg dot net.

1157
01:04:22,080 --> 01:04:24,440
Speaker 1: I would be remiss if I did not thank the

1158
01:04:24,520 --> 01:04:29,320
Speaker 1: crack team who helps put these podcasts together. Medina Parwana

1159
01:04:29,480 --> 01:04:34,360
Speaker 1: is my audio engineer. Taylor Riggs is my booking producer.

1160
01:04:34,840 --> 01:04:38,400
Speaker 1: Michael Batnick is head of research. I'm Barry rid Holts.

1161
01:04:38,600 --> 01:04:42,080
Speaker 1: You've been listening to Masters in Business on Bloomberg Radio.