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Speaker 1: Hey everybody, Welcome back to the Betting Pros NFL Podcast,

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Speaker 1: brought to you by bet MGM. I'm your host, Dan Harris.

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Speaker 1: You can find me on Twitter at Dan Harris eighty.

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Speaker 1: As you surely know by now, Championship Sunday is upon us.

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Speaker 1: We've got two games to break down with me. To

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Speaker 1: do that is Adam Burke, a sports betting writer over

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Speaker 1: at bangbook dot com, host of Bang the Book Radio.

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Speaker 1: You can follow him on Twitter at Skating Tripods, one

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Speaker 1: of my favorite Twitter handles in the world. Adam, it

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Speaker 1: is great to have you back on It's been a while.

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Speaker 2: How's it going.

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Speaker 3: That's great to be here, man. I'm doing pretty well.

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Speaker 2: How about you good?

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Speaker 1: How's your actionally going in the playoffs generally speaking? Have

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Speaker 1: you been sort of, you know, hitting on most of

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Speaker 1: your picks? Have you been not getting a good feel

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Speaker 1: for it to what?

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Speaker 4: I'll tell you what, Man, it's been kind of scary

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Speaker 4: because I've been sort of chalky in a lot of

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Speaker 4: these games, you know.

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Speaker 2: Yeah.

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Speaker 4: I mean I was on Philadelphia, for example, in that

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Speaker 4: game against Seattle and they wound up closing a favorite

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Speaker 4: got a better number, of course, Carson Wentz gets hurt.

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Speaker 4: You know, last week I take ball more and you know,

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Speaker 4: I mean they won the stats sheet, but I guess

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Speaker 4: that doesn't really get you anywhere in the playoffs, necessarily

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Speaker 4: because they were essentially minus seven and turnover margin with

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Speaker 4: the four turnovers on downs. But at least Kansas City

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Speaker 4: got there for me and man, I had no interest

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Speaker 4: in touching that Seattle Green Bay game from a side standpoint.

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Speaker 4: Wound up taking the under, and you know how that

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Speaker 4: one turned out. So it's it's been tough. I don't

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Speaker 4: think things have really worked out the way I expected

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Speaker 4: them to.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I feel like there have only been a couple

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Speaker 1: of sides that I felt really good about and none

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Speaker 1: of them has hit, like the under on the Seahawks

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Speaker 1: Green Bay game, right Like, I really like that now.

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Speaker 1: I wound up escaping that one because I wound up

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Speaker 1: doing a two team teaser where I teased the niner

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Speaker 1: spread against the Vikings down to one or one and

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Speaker 1: a half or whatever it was, and then I teased

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Speaker 1: the over under up to fifty three in that game.

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Speaker 1: So because the Seahawks did not convert that two point conversion,

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Speaker 1: that one up hitting. But I liked it at under

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Speaker 1: forty seven for sure, So it has been a little weird.

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Speaker 1: But you know, especially with that Ravens game, there's gonna

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Speaker 1: be one game in during the week, maybe not this week,

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Speaker 1: and we'll see, and we'll see if you get a

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Speaker 1: little chocky, but there's gonna be one game in that

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Speaker 1: weekend that was going to have to blow up all

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Speaker 1: those parlays, right there were probably a million money line

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Speaker 1: parlays going on with the Ravens and the Chiefs and

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Speaker 1: the Niners like that. One of those games had to lose.

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Speaker 1: So I didn't really expect it to be the Ravens.

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Speaker 1: But again, you kind of simulate that game a million times,

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Speaker 1: you know, the Ravens, you know, with the fourth down

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Speaker 1: conversions and all that sort of stuff, they're gonna win

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Speaker 1: that game, you know, at least a handful of times.

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Speaker 1: So it was certainly a surprising thing that happened. So

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Speaker 1: even with just two games, Adam and I are going

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Speaker 1: to be giving our three best bets, like we always do,

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Speaker 1: a pick to avoid, and then our favorite player prop.

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Speaker 1: But first, as always, we are going to quickly check

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Speaker 1: in with what happened last week, because, as I was

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Speaker 1: alluding to earlier, it was not pretty. Our guest Greg Smith,

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Speaker 1: he did hit on the Chiefs on the money line,

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Speaker 1: but he missed on the Ravens Chiefs money line parlay,

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Speaker 1: the Packers Seahawks under forty seven and Damien Williams over

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Speaker 1: fifty four and a half rushing yards. I did not

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Speaker 1: fare much better myself. Although I hit on my two

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Speaker 1: team teaser of the Niners laying one and the Packer

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Speaker 1: Seahawks under fifty three that I just talked about, I

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Speaker 1: missed very hard on the Chiefs and Texans under fifty

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Speaker 1: one and a half. I mean, the Chiefs basically went

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Speaker 1: over by themselves, Derek Henry under ninety four and a

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Speaker 1: half rushing yards which he basically doubled, as well as

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Speaker 1: the Chiefs laying five and a half in the first half.

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Speaker 1: So look, as I've said, we've only got two games

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Speaker 1: this week. Unless I'm going to just directly pick against Adam,

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Speaker 1: and as we'll talk about, I do lean to the

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Speaker 1: other side of certain of his choices, So we will

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Speaker 1: get into that. There just aren't enough picks to go around.

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Speaker 1: So I'm probably gonna go off the board here, get

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Speaker 1: a little creative at times. But why don't we do this, Adam,

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Speaker 1: Let's just break down your favorite plays from the Chiefs

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Speaker 1: Titans game, and then we'll break down your favorite plays

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Speaker 1: with the forty nine ers. So if you've got multiple

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Speaker 1: sort of of your best bets for the week on

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Speaker 1: the Chiefs and the Titans, let's just deal with them

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Speaker 1: all up front before we turn to the forty nine

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Speaker 1: ers and the Packers.

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Speaker 2: That okay with you? Sounds good to me, all right,

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Speaker 2: So go ahead.

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Speaker 1: You've got two picks here right on the Chiefs and

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Speaker 1: the Titans game.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, And I'm feeling real four sighted today. Man, I'm

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Speaker 4: feeling so square about this game. But you know what

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Speaker 4: I mean, It's Kansas City for me, and now that

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Speaker 4: there's minus sevens out there, I'm ecstatic because I was

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Speaker 4: kind of hoping one would show up with the Titans

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Speaker 4: not even being just the flavor of the month team,

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Speaker 4: but really the flavor of the second half team. With

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Speaker 4: the big changes going from Marcus Mariota to Ryan Tannehill,

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Speaker 4: with Derrick Henry being like the greatest running back of

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Speaker 4: all time in the last eight nine weeks, I think

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Speaker 4: everything's setting up perfectly here for Kansas City to just

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Speaker 4: completely wallop this team.

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Speaker 3: I took the minus seven.

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Speaker 4: Didn't have to lay the seven and a half because

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Speaker 4: I kind of sat there and waited and said, you

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Speaker 4: know what, I could probably get seven and a half,

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Speaker 4: even money something like that. I could settle for that

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Speaker 4: if I want to. But seven's actually popped up here

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Speaker 4: on Thursday. And I mean, look, first of all, in

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Speaker 4: the first meeting between these two teams, Patrick Mahomes, coming

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Speaker 4: off the shelf with that knee injury, threw for four

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Speaker 4: hundred and forty six yards in that game. And I

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Speaker 4: know Derrick Henry had a big game on the ground,

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Speaker 4: as he has seemingly every week here. But that was

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Speaker 4: a Kansas City Chiefs defensive collapse in that game because

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Speaker 4: the offense badly out gained Tennessee the first time around

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Speaker 4: last week, Baltimore badly out gains Tennessee. And all these

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Speaker 4: people saying, oh, well they shut down Lamar Jackson, No

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Speaker 4: they didn't. He had over five hundred yards of offense

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Speaker 4: in that game. He just had the three turnovers. They

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Speaker 4: turn it over on downs four times. Tennessee took advantage

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Speaker 4: of some short fields. Look, the Titans are living right,

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Speaker 4: and if they find a way to win this game,

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Speaker 4: if Mahomes has some odd of body experience and turns

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Speaker 4: it over a bunch or doesn't use his legs effectively.

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Speaker 4: Maybe Tennessee does win, Maybe Tennessee does advance to the

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Speaker 4: super Bowl. I just don't see it, man, I don't

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Speaker 4: see how Tennessee stops Kansas City. And look, keep in mind,

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Speaker 4: Derrick Henry ran rough shot over the Patriots in the

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Speaker 4: wildcard round and Tennessee scored fourteen offensive points. You know,

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Speaker 4: so unless Kansas City really shoots themselves on special teams

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Speaker 4: like they tried to do last week, they're gonna move

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Speaker 4: the ball and score. They're gonna let Derrick Henry get

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Speaker 4: his I don't think it's gonna be enough, man. I

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Speaker 4: think Kansas City is the best play here. And I'll

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Speaker 4: even be a little bit square and kind of take

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Speaker 4: the over here a little bit, just because I know

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Speaker 4: that this one's probably peaked at fifty three. But Derrick

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Speaker 4: Henry is gonna get his. Ryan Tanneil hasn't had to

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Speaker 4: throw in the playoffs, but you gotta think it's there

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Speaker 4: if he needs it. But again, ultimately, I just don't

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Speaker 4: think Tennessee stops Kansas City here. If you get Kansas

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Speaker 4: City up into the mid to upper thirties. Like, I

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Speaker 4: think they're plenty capable of this. One's got a very

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Speaker 4: good chance of going over.

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Speaker 1: All, right, So you make great points. You do, of course,

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Speaker 1: you always make great points, and I will say that.

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Speaker 3: You know so I think anyway, No, no you don't.

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Speaker 1: I mean you make great points. Whether you know they

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Speaker 1: essentially lead to anything, it's a whole different story. But no,

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Speaker 1: you do make great points. And I'm looking at the

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Speaker 1: consensus lines, and right now there is a seven out

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Speaker 1: there at points bet sure for this uh spread, But

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Speaker 1: I'll be honest, both of them, both numbers, the over

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Speaker 1: under and on the spread. If it's I'm gonna assume

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Speaker 1: its seven and a half, okay, because right now that's

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Speaker 1: our consensus lines. There are seven out there. But you

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Speaker 1: can still get seven and a half at FanDuel, at DraftKings,

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Speaker 1: at MGM, those sorts of places. I kind of lean

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Speaker 1: towards the Titans and towards the ender. So let's just

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Speaker 1: talk it out, Okay. You you made a ton of

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Speaker 1: good points, and I'm not those are these aren't going

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Speaker 1: to be my pick necessarily. I'm going to get a

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Speaker 1: little creative here, just because I don't love either one,

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Speaker 1: for sure. I want to make it clear. I don't

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Speaker 1: love in any way the Titans getting seven and a half.

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Speaker 1: I don't love the under wherever it is settling right now,

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Speaker 1: it's at fifty two and a half.

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Speaker 2: I don't love those plays.

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Speaker 1: But I do lean that way, and I'm going to

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Speaker 1: explain why, and then we'll get a little back and forth.

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Speaker 1: You don't need the stats on Henry I mean, you know,

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Speaker 1: we've talked about it. He's gone crazy. He's got twelve

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Speaker 1: hundred and seventy three rushing yards in his last eight games.

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Speaker 1: That's just not a normal number. He's running behind a

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Speaker 1: good run blocking line. He leads league yards after contact.

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Speaker 1: He's just completely unsomable. And then look we talked about

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Speaker 1: it is he did this against the Ravens, which has

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Speaker 1: a solid run defense, and the Pats, which have an

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Speaker 1: okay run defense. The Chiefs cannot stop the run right

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Speaker 1: They're twenty ninth in defensive DVOA against the run. They

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Speaker 1: allow nearly five yards per carry, twenty eighth worst in

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Speaker 1: the league. They miss tackles like crazy. Henry ren all

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Speaker 1: over them in the first game. Even Carlos Hyde, I mean,

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Speaker 1: he had four and a half yards per carry last week,

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Speaker 1: they just had to abandon the run, which again is

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Speaker 1: gonna go into your theory and could certainly happen here.

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Speaker 1: If they take a big lead, it's gonna be difficult

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Speaker 1: for the Titans to stick with a round, although I

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Speaker 1: think they're gonna try to do that because you know

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Speaker 1: they did that during the season. I can't remember what game,

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Speaker 1: maybe against Jacksonville where they fell behind, they just kept

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Speaker 1: running it. Henry stayed out there. So I don't think

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Speaker 1: they're ever just gonna, regardless, turn it completely over to Tennail.

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Speaker 1: But regardless, Tennail is not doing anything in these playoffs.

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Speaker 1: But it's really kind of just because he doesn't need to,

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Speaker 1: because Derek Henry is running so effectively. If he needs to,

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Speaker 1: I really think he can't remember during the season he

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Speaker 1: was first and passer rating first in yours per tempt,

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Speaker 1: first in yours per completion. And you saw with that

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Speaker 1: touchdown to Raymond against the Ravens, right they had the

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Speaker 1: play action. They were doing a thirteen formation one receiver,

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Speaker 1: and it's Raymond. It's not Aj Brown, it's not Corey Davids,

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Speaker 1: it's Raymond. You know they are gonna be opportunities for

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Speaker 1: plenty of play action because they're going to be so

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Speaker 1: effective on the ground. They're elite in the red zone.

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Speaker 1: So really, for me, the way I look at this

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Speaker 1: game unfolding, I think that the Titans are able to

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Speaker 1: put up points here offensively. Now, again, the big deal

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Speaker 1: here is the Chiefs offense against the Titans defense. Everything

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Speaker 1: you said is correct. I mean, Mahomes dropped four hundred

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Speaker 1: and forty six yards on them the first time they played,

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Speaker 1: and he was not healthy. The Titan secondary is not great,

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Speaker 1: and he'll completely roasted them that first time. They're not

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Speaker 1: good against tight ends, and Travis Kelcey beat them up

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Speaker 1: pretty good, but they still allow just twenty point seven

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Speaker 1: points per game. The whole is a little bit better

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Speaker 1: than the some of their parts, and you did see

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Speaker 1: that against the Ravens. They did give up a ton

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Speaker 1: of yards, of course, but remember they were playing from

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Speaker 1: way ahead in that game. I mean, I want to

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Speaker 1: make clear they didn't completely shut down the Ravens offensive.

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Speaker 1: I mean, a couple of the fourth down conversions go

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Speaker 1: different way. We might be having a different discussion right now,

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Speaker 1: but in the end, a lot of that was garbage

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Speaker 1: time where they were able to move the ball and

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Speaker 1: stuff like that, they are able to keep the quarterback contained.

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Speaker 1: I kind of think that this game is gonna be close,

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Speaker 1: and I the Titans if you can get them at

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Speaker 1: more than a touch on And because of that, because

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Speaker 1: I like that, I kind of lean towards the under here.

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Speaker 1: It's not a play that I would make based on

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Speaker 1: fifty two and a half, but I think essentially, you

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Speaker 1: like the Chiefs and the over. I like the Titans

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Speaker 1: generally in the under, and I think that those couldn't

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Speaker 1: be swapped, right Like, I find it very difficult to

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Speaker 1: make a case for the Chiefs for the Chiefs and

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Speaker 1: the under, and I find it difficult to make a

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Speaker 1: case for the Titans and the over. The Houston defense

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Speaker 1: is terrible, so you know the fact that they hung

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Speaker 1: fifty one on them last week. They're an incredible offense,

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Speaker 1: but I'm not gonna jump into that. A lot of

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Speaker 1: it was playing from behind. The Titans have been under

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Speaker 1: both games in their playoff, and again, I think it's

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Speaker 1: a little bit influenced by last week, so I don't

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Speaker 1: see a ton of value with it. But here's basically

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Speaker 1: what my play would be in this game, Okay, I

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Speaker 1: would probably lean and take the Titans at plus seven

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Speaker 1: and a half. I was doing a direct beat, but

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Speaker 1: you like the Chiefs over and I want to get

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Speaker 1: a little creative here. So here's my official pick. I'm

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Speaker 1: gonna tease the Titans. I'm gonna do a teaser here.

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Speaker 1: I'm gonna tease the Titans up to thirteen and a half.

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Speaker 1: All right, assuming you get them at sen and a half,

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Speaker 1: I'm gonna take the six points, take the Titans getting

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Speaker 1: thirteen and a half, and I'm gonna bump that total

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Speaker 1: up to fifty eight and a half and take the under.

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Speaker 1: So all right, that's my total pick. So go ahead.

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Speaker 1: I have been talking for twelve minutes now, NonStop about it.

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Speaker 1: You go ahead, and you know, come back and you

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Speaker 1: obviously see the other side, right.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean there were a few starting points here.

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Speaker 4: I mean, first of all, think about how the Ravens

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Speaker 4: started that game last week. Think about how the Chiefs

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Speaker 4: started that game last week. Both of those teams coming

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Speaker 4: off of buys, and essentially for the Ravens, basically two

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Speaker 4: buys in a row because they didn't play anybody in

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Speaker 4: Week seventeen, So timing was an issue. There were some

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Speaker 4: things that were difficult for them, and also too, I mean, look,

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Speaker 4: they turned Lamar Jackson into a passer.

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Speaker 3: When else would we expect Lamar Jackson.

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Speaker 4: I know they were trailing most of the game, but

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Speaker 4: Lamar Jackson doesn't need sixty pass attempts, you know, for

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Speaker 4: Baltimore to have success.

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Speaker 3: So that was part of it.

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Speaker 4: And also mark Ingram was not healthy, so the Ravens

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Speaker 4: didn't have that element to their offense.

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Speaker 3: So I think there is.

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Speaker 4: A case to be made, and it sounds like you're

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Speaker 4: making excuses for the Ravens, and quite frankly, maybe I am.

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Speaker 4: They punted once in that game last week, they got

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Speaker 4: into Tennessee territory a ton. That game probably should have

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Speaker 4: gone differently, and if you run it back ten times,

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Speaker 4: Baltimore probably wins eight of them. So there is that

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Speaker 4: to consider. The Chiefs drops all over the place in

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Speaker 4: the first quarter, give up to twenty one points, had

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Speaker 4: the fumble on the punt return, had a block punt,

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Speaker 4: they win that game. What fifty one to ten if

296
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Speaker 4: not higher. If everything doesn't go wrong for them in

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Speaker 4: the first quarter of that game, they only gave up

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Speaker 4: ten points to Deshaun Watson in a pretty good Texans offense.

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Speaker 4: So I can make the case that you made for

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Speaker 4: the Tennessee defense of you know, a lot of that

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Speaker 4: bending but not breaking type of thing. The Chiefs gave

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Speaker 4: up three hundred and eight yards to de Shaun Watson

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Speaker 4: and gave up ten points when it wasn't really a

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Speaker 4: short field, So there is that element in the equation here. Furthermore,

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Speaker 4: Derreck Henry right with it, ninety six carries in the

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Speaker 4: last three games. Maybe the dude is a cyborg. I mean,

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Speaker 4: maybe he's just not human. That's certainly a possibility. But

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Speaker 4: fourth straight road game, fourth in a row against a

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Speaker 4: division winner, with Derrick Henry getting this massive workload, at

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Speaker 4: some point, this dude's got to slow down a little bit, right,

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Speaker 4: And if he's gonna slow down in a game here

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Speaker 4: against the Chiefs where they're gonna do whatever they want offensively,

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Speaker 4: that's concerning to me. And maybe Ryan Tannehill can bail

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Speaker 4: him out. I mean, you mentioned all the stats. Tannehill

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Speaker 4: was very, very good during the regular season, but how

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Speaker 4: sharp is this cat gonna be with what twenty nine

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Speaker 4: pass attempts in the last two weeks. I worry about that.

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Speaker 4: I worry about his timing with his receivers. I worry

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Speaker 4: about if Andy Reid and the coaching staff say, you

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Speaker 4: know what, we're gonna let Derrick Henry get his. It's

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Speaker 4: kind of like when you play against like Marquette and

322
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Speaker 4: college basketball or something, Marcus Howard's gonna get his thirty

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Speaker 4: five and you just want to stop everybody else. I

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Speaker 4: think that's probably the game plan here for Kansas City

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Speaker 4: of Henry will get his and that's fine, and we'll

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Speaker 4: live with it. AJ Brown does beat us over the top.

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Speaker 4: Ryan Tannehill doesn't beat us. We blitz him, you know,

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Speaker 4: we do some some run blitzer that can kind of

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Speaker 4: double his pressure on him. I think people really underestimate

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Speaker 4: how good of a game planner Andy Reid actually is,

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Speaker 4: and I think that's part of the equation here too,

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Speaker 4: where I think Kansas City is going to be very

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Speaker 4: well prepared, as well prepared as they can be for

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Speaker 4: this game. And I just don't know if Tennessee has

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Speaker 4: the weapons on the fly if they get down early

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Speaker 4: and face some adversity here. Keep in mind me, this

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Speaker 4: is a team that's been playing playoff games for what

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Speaker 4: eight weeks, in a row now, yep, because they've had

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Speaker 4: to at some point that's gotta run out.

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Speaker 3: And if it doesn't, then so be it. But I

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Speaker 3: think this is the week it does.

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Speaker 1: I think, look, they're all great points, and again, this

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Speaker 1: is a game you can make the argument either side.

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Speaker 1: There are a few things. I think number one, especially

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Speaker 1: leaning just generally towards the ender. If the Chiefs come

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Speaker 1: out right, and they get the ball first and they score,

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Speaker 1: and they somehow hold the Titans two three now, and

348
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Speaker 1: then they score again and it's fourteen to nothing six

349
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Speaker 1: minutes into the game, then forget it right. Then every

350
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Speaker 1: is gonna unfold the exact way that you're saying. And

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Speaker 1: that is a distinct possibility for sure. But I think

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Speaker 1: in the end, you know, there was this formula early

353
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Speaker 1: on in the season, not you know, in the middle,

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Speaker 1: where basically was the way to beat the Chiefs was

355
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Speaker 1: to run the ball NonStop. Their run defense is not good.

356
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Speaker 1: Keep mahomes off the field as much as you can,

357
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Speaker 1: chew up the clock and let that go. That's what

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Speaker 1: the Colts did in the game they won. That's what

359
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Speaker 1: the Texans did in the game they won. That's how

360
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Speaker 1: you have to do it. This is the team that

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Speaker 1: basically has the exact formula to do it. And no

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Speaker 1: matter what they do. I mean, frankly, if I'm the Chiefs,

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Speaker 1: I might take the Derrick Henry.

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Speaker 2: May be unstoppable.

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Speaker 1: So to focus on taking Henry away and try to

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Speaker 1: make Tannehill be too, maybe that doesn't make any sense,

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Speaker 1: like you're sort of saying. Instead, just say, look, Derek

368
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Speaker 1: Henry's gonna do what he's gonna do. That's all there is.

369
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Speaker 1: They're still not putting up that many points. I'm just

370
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Speaker 1: gonna take away Tannail and aj Brown and see where

371
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Speaker 1: I'm left. Maybe that is what it's gonna be. But

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Speaker 1: I do not see Derrick Henry slowing. I mean, all

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Speaker 1: these carries and all this punishment. Yeah, I'm sure in

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Speaker 1: the offseason, maybe even next year, that's gonna take its

375
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Speaker 1: full but not yet. That's especially true. By the way,

376
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Speaker 1: let's not discount Chris Jones still isn't practicing right now.

377
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Speaker 1: He is not out there practicing. And you know, the

378
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Speaker 1: loss of Thornhill was kind of underrated. I think you

379
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Speaker 1: saw that, and that still's touchdown last week. There's just

380
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Speaker 1: not the same communication in that secondary. So, look, is

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Speaker 1: it possible that Mahomes comes out and what he looked

382
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Speaker 1: like once they went down twenty four to nothing, you

383
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Speaker 1: look completely unstoppable. But remember the Chiefs had trended toward

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Speaker 1: the under a lot of their last several games of

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Speaker 1: the season. I don't view them as suddenly this team

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Speaker 1: that as good as Mahomes is, and you know, with

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Speaker 1: their weapons doing well, that he is still going to

388
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Speaker 1: be able to put up you know, fifty points or

389
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Speaker 1: whatever they're going to be able to do. And I

390
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Speaker 1: think even if they do, I think that the Titans

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Speaker 1: are going to try desperately to stick with the run

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Speaker 1: and stick with Henry and keep Mahomes off the field.

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Speaker 1: So that's another reason why I kind of like the under.

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Speaker 1: You can say anything in response you want. You made

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Speaker 1: a ton of great points. I don't think you need

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Speaker 1: to respond, but if you would like to, by all means,

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Speaker 1: I don't want to take away the last word from you.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, this is one of those where you know, early

399
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Speaker 4: on in the week I was looking towards the over

400
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Speaker 4: a lot more than I am now, and I in

401
00:17:04,920 --> 00:17:06,560
Speaker 4: fact didn't hop in on it. And it went up

402
00:17:06,600 --> 00:17:08,879
Speaker 4: to fifty three and I thought, okay, well, we're starting

403
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Speaker 4: to get buy back on it now. So at that point,

404
00:17:12,040 --> 00:17:13,760
Speaker 4: you know a lot of people thinking along the same

405
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Speaker 4: lines that you are of this is the peak of

406
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Speaker 4: the number. I'm gonna take the under here because the

407
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Speaker 4: Chiefs defense. I mean, look, I went on record on

408
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Speaker 4: my show saying that I think the Chiefs are going

409
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Speaker 4: to beat Baltimore on the road and get to the

410
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Speaker 4: super Bowl. And I said that probably about week fifteen

411
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Speaker 4: or week sixteen, and you know, obviously Baltimore doesn't get there.

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Speaker 4: But a big reason why I thought that was because

413
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Speaker 4: this Kansas City defense had gotten so much better. The

414
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Speaker 4: hard part about it for them here is, as you've said,

415
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Speaker 4: they're not good against the run, and this would be

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Speaker 4: something that comes into play obviously against San Francisco if

417
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Speaker 4: they wind up in the Super Bowl against the forty

418
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Speaker 4: nine ers. They've gotten substantially better against the pass. So,

419
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Speaker 4: like, like I said, maybe they just try to do what

420
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Speaker 4: they do against the pass and say, you know what,

421
00:17:59,240 --> 00:18:01,760
Speaker 4: Henry's gonna get his one hundred and eighty yards, but

422
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Speaker 4: we're also gonna get our five hundred yards. So we're

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Speaker 4: willing to do that because the thing of it is is,

424
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Speaker 4: you know, Mahomes with his legs and with the weapons

425
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Speaker 4: he's got Damian Williams, the play designs of Andy Reid.

426
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Speaker 4: You don't get a lot of third and lungs for

427
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Speaker 4: Kansas City, and if you do, you've got more confidence

428
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Speaker 4: in them to complete those, I think, than you would

429
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Speaker 4: the Titans. So if you get a couple stops the

430
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Speaker 4: line of scrimmage, maybe one negative play, you know, every

431
00:18:26,560 --> 00:18:30,120
Speaker 4: couple series against Derrick Henry, maybe that's all you need

432
00:18:30,359 --> 00:18:32,160
Speaker 4: to go ahead and put some margin in this game.

433
00:18:32,359 --> 00:18:33,800
Speaker 2: Yeah. No, I mean it's a good point.

434
00:18:33,800 --> 00:18:36,520
Speaker 1: And again I liked the under last week, which was

435
00:18:36,520 --> 00:18:39,359
Speaker 1: a you know, wound up being a terrible call, But

436
00:18:39,440 --> 00:18:42,040
Speaker 1: one of the reasons was because of how much the Chiefs,

437
00:18:42,080 --> 00:18:44,840
Speaker 1: you know, past events in particular, had improved. Again, I

438
00:18:44,840 --> 00:18:46,800
Speaker 1: think the loss of Thorn Hill is a bigger deal

439
00:18:46,880 --> 00:18:49,760
Speaker 1: than kind of I've been willing to credit it. And

440
00:18:50,040 --> 00:18:51,720
Speaker 1: so I think in the end they are going to

441
00:18:51,720 --> 00:18:54,199
Speaker 1: struggle here a little bit in terms of defensively. Now,

442
00:18:54,240 --> 00:18:55,480
Speaker 1: the one other thing I'm gonna say, because I have

443
00:18:55,520 --> 00:18:57,840
Speaker 1: another planned this game, that I'll say quickly. You know,

444
00:18:57,960 --> 00:19:00,520
Speaker 1: I said I like the under generally at fifty two

445
00:19:00,520 --> 00:19:02,120
Speaker 1: and a half It's probably not something that I'm gonna

446
00:19:02,119 --> 00:19:04,000
Speaker 1: play because I don't see a ton of value in it,

447
00:19:04,000 --> 00:19:06,119
Speaker 1: and I think there's an easy path for this to

448
00:19:06,160 --> 00:19:09,240
Speaker 1: shoot over. But regardless, I kind of like the over

449
00:19:09,359 --> 00:19:12,000
Speaker 1: in the first half if you can get it at

450
00:19:12,320 --> 00:19:14,919
Speaker 1: under twenty six, because I've seen this bouncing around at

451
00:19:14,920 --> 00:19:16,840
Speaker 1: a bunch of different places. It's twenty six and a

452
00:19:16,840 --> 00:19:18,960
Speaker 1: half at DraftKings. I don't like that, but I've seen

453
00:19:19,000 --> 00:19:21,439
Speaker 1: it twenty five and a half, even twenty five at

454
00:19:21,480 --> 00:19:23,240
Speaker 1: various spots. So if you can get it, I like

455
00:19:23,320 --> 00:19:25,639
Speaker 1: that in the first half. And here's why. Both teams

456
00:19:25,640 --> 00:19:28,920
Speaker 1: are extremely well coached, right, and they both made halftime

457
00:19:28,960 --> 00:19:32,080
Speaker 1: adjustments in their playoff wins. The Titans have allowed nineteen

458
00:19:32,119 --> 00:19:34,560
Speaker 1: points in the first half of their playoff wins, still

459
00:19:34,560 --> 00:19:37,280
Speaker 1: a tremendous number, but just six points in the second

460
00:19:37,320 --> 00:19:39,320
Speaker 1: half that was in garbage time to the Ravens. The

461
00:19:39,400 --> 00:19:41,960
Speaker 1: chief allowed twenty four points to the Texans in the

462
00:19:41,960 --> 00:19:44,600
Speaker 1: first half, just seven in the second half. Both teams

463
00:19:44,640 --> 00:19:46,480
Speaker 1: have been able to move the ball well in their games.

464
00:19:46,560 --> 00:19:48,919
Speaker 1: We have just talked about why, so they're going to

465
00:19:49,000 --> 00:19:51,320
Speaker 1: be scoring and I think they're gonna probably be able

466
00:19:51,359 --> 00:19:53,160
Speaker 1: to do it when they first start, but I think

467
00:19:53,200 --> 00:19:54,960
Speaker 1: you know, they're gonna go in for a halftime. They'll

468
00:19:54,960 --> 00:19:58,280
Speaker 1: probably make adjustments because they're both so incredibly well coached,

469
00:19:58,440 --> 00:20:00,040
Speaker 1: and I think the scoring is probably going to go

470
00:20:00,080 --> 00:20:02,280
Speaker 1: down in the second half, So I can see an

471
00:20:02,280 --> 00:20:04,400
Speaker 1: in game wager on the under in the second half

472
00:20:04,440 --> 00:20:06,680
Speaker 1: if the game unfolds in the way I expect, which

473
00:20:06,760 --> 00:20:08,920
Speaker 1: is generally speaking, a close game. I mean, if that

474
00:20:09,440 --> 00:20:11,840
Speaker 1: if the Chiefs go up by a lot, then you're

475
00:20:11,880 --> 00:20:14,159
Speaker 1: gonna have a lot of probably garbage time. The Titans

476
00:20:14,160 --> 00:20:15,480
Speaker 1: are gonna be throwing a lot. So I'm not gonna

477
00:20:15,480 --> 00:20:18,119
Speaker 1: pound one in an in game wager there on the

478
00:20:18,200 --> 00:20:20,040
Speaker 1: under in the second half. But you know, for me,

479
00:20:20,200 --> 00:20:24,040
Speaker 1: the Chiefs Titans over you know, anything below twenty six

480
00:20:24,200 --> 00:20:25,840
Speaker 1: in the first half, because I do think that both

481
00:20:25,880 --> 00:20:28,040
Speaker 1: these teams. You mentioned it why the Chiefs came out

482
00:20:28,080 --> 00:20:30,040
Speaker 1: a little flat and that game they were coming off

483
00:20:30,040 --> 00:20:32,240
Speaker 1: the buy that happened sometimes and then they dominate. I

484
00:20:32,280 --> 00:20:34,000
Speaker 1: think they are going to be able to score generally.

485
00:20:34,080 --> 00:20:36,080
Speaker 1: I certainly think that the Titans are going to be

486
00:20:36,080 --> 00:20:37,840
Speaker 1: able to score, but I think that the majority of

487
00:20:37,840 --> 00:20:39,600
Speaker 1: the scoring at least is going to come in the

488
00:20:39,640 --> 00:20:42,560
Speaker 1: first half before both coaches very well coached, adjust a

489
00:20:42,600 --> 00:20:44,760
Speaker 1: little bit and keep the second half to the under

490
00:20:44,760 --> 00:20:47,480
Speaker 1: to the extent it is a close game. So one

491
00:20:47,480 --> 00:20:50,440
Speaker 1: of my other plays is the Chiefs Titans over anything

492
00:20:51,160 --> 00:20:53,800
Speaker 1: under twenty six or under in the first half. What

493
00:20:53,840 --> 00:20:54,520
Speaker 1: are your thoughts on that?

494
00:20:54,720 --> 00:20:56,399
Speaker 4: See, I actually really like this one, and I like

495
00:20:56,440 --> 00:20:58,800
Speaker 4: the thought process too, And I could piggyback this a

496
00:20:58,840 --> 00:21:01,240
Speaker 4: little bit as well and say, I mean, look for

497
00:21:01,359 --> 00:21:04,160
Speaker 4: Kansas City. You know you want to try and take

498
00:21:04,200 --> 00:21:06,280
Speaker 4: Derrick Henry out of the equation as much as you can.

499
00:21:06,359 --> 00:21:08,840
Speaker 4: And if that doesn't mean defending him, it means making

500
00:21:08,840 --> 00:21:11,720
Speaker 4: Tennessee throw the football. So if I'm Kansas City, I

501
00:21:11,760 --> 00:21:14,640
Speaker 4: want to start real fast in this game. You dug

502
00:21:14,680 --> 00:21:16,639
Speaker 4: yourself that twenty four to zh in Hole last week.

503
00:21:16,840 --> 00:21:18,760
Speaker 4: You don't want to do that again. So you want

504
00:21:18,760 --> 00:21:22,200
Speaker 4: to start fast your best fifteen plays against this Titans defense.

505
00:21:22,480 --> 00:21:24,480
Speaker 4: I think that there's a good opportunity for Kansas City

506
00:21:24,520 --> 00:21:26,600
Speaker 4: to score in the first half. And if I'm Mike

507
00:21:26,640 --> 00:21:30,320
Speaker 4: Vrabel and I'm mart Smith, I go into this game thinking,

508
00:21:30,480 --> 00:21:33,400
Speaker 4: you know what they expect us to run, don't they

509
00:21:33,520 --> 00:21:36,320
Speaker 4: They expect us to use Derrick Henry thirty times, and

510
00:21:36,400 --> 00:21:39,239
Speaker 4: we probably will. But why don't we come out here

511
00:21:39,280 --> 00:21:41,480
Speaker 4: and throw it around a little bit and see what happens.

512
00:21:41,520 --> 00:21:44,439
Speaker 4: Why don't we let Ryan Tannehill get into the rhythm

513
00:21:44,440 --> 00:21:46,840
Speaker 4: of the game, because it's too pronged, right. You get

514
00:21:46,880 --> 00:21:49,400
Speaker 4: a chance to maybe take advantage of Kansas City while

515
00:21:49,400 --> 00:21:51,520
Speaker 4: they're looking for them to establish the run, you know

516
00:21:51,520 --> 00:21:53,639
Speaker 4: that buzz phrase that everybody wants to do early in

517
00:21:53,640 --> 00:21:56,720
Speaker 4: the game. But instead you counter punch and let Tannehill

518
00:21:56,760 --> 00:21:59,240
Speaker 4: throw it around a little bit because you can catch

519
00:21:59,320 --> 00:22:02,600
Speaker 4: him by surprise. And furthermore, you can get him into

520
00:22:02,600 --> 00:22:04,600
Speaker 4: the rhythm of the game in the sense that if

521
00:22:04,640 --> 00:22:07,000
Speaker 4: you need him in the second half, and you very

522
00:22:07,000 --> 00:22:10,040
Speaker 4: well could against Kansas City, he's there for you because

523
00:22:10,080 --> 00:22:13,159
Speaker 4: you haven't needed him in any second half to this point.

524
00:22:13,480 --> 00:22:16,000
Speaker 4: So why not get his legs under him. I mean,

525
00:22:16,000 --> 00:22:18,120
Speaker 4: this is the biggest spot of his career obviously, going

526
00:22:18,160 --> 00:22:20,280
Speaker 4: on the road to arrow ad here. Why not give

527
00:22:20,320 --> 00:22:22,040
Speaker 4: him the opportunity to do a little pitch and catch

528
00:22:22,080 --> 00:22:23,760
Speaker 4: early on and kind of get a little bit of

529
00:22:23,760 --> 00:22:26,359
Speaker 4: confidence going and get into a rhythm, because again, I mean,

530
00:22:26,520 --> 00:22:28,640
Speaker 4: it's all he's really in one judging by the first

531
00:22:28,640 --> 00:22:30,680
Speaker 4: two playoff games and his volume and output.

532
00:22:31,000 --> 00:22:31,080
Speaker 3: No.

533
00:22:31,200 --> 00:22:33,679
Speaker 1: Absolutely, And again to be fair, they didn't need to

534
00:22:33,720 --> 00:22:36,040
Speaker 1: do anything really with him, right, He's done exactly what

535
00:22:36,040 --> 00:22:36,600
Speaker 1: do you need to do.

536
00:22:36,640 --> 00:22:37,880
Speaker 2: He hasn't turned the ball over.

537
00:22:38,000 --> 00:22:40,399
Speaker 1: He's been able to sort of you know, keep you know,

538
00:22:40,440 --> 00:22:42,880
Speaker 1: get the big play when they needed that one play.

539
00:22:42,880 --> 00:22:45,240
Speaker 1: But he has been asked to carry the load here. However, again,

540
00:22:45,280 --> 00:22:49,440
Speaker 1: those first two defenses, the Pats and the Ravens, they're

541
00:22:49,600 --> 00:22:52,280
Speaker 1: very good pass defense. The Chiefs have been improving, but

542
00:22:52,320 --> 00:22:54,439
Speaker 1: they're not quite in that same class, at least in

543
00:22:54,440 --> 00:22:57,600
Speaker 1: my opinion. Especially again, I just I feel like I

544
00:22:57,640 --> 00:22:59,240
Speaker 1: overlooked it, so I'm trying not to now as a

545
00:22:59,240 --> 00:23:01,040
Speaker 1: loss of Thornhill, who was kind of the you know,

546
00:23:01,080 --> 00:23:03,199
Speaker 1: the guy who was directing everybody. So I feel like

547
00:23:03,240 --> 00:23:05,119
Speaker 1: in the end that has a bit more of an impact.

548
00:23:05,119 --> 00:23:07,480
Speaker 1: So I could definitely see the Titans getting a little

549
00:23:07,520 --> 00:23:10,240
Speaker 1: creative on offense involving the past game. All right, we

550
00:23:10,000 --> 00:23:12,400
Speaker 1: have we have, you know, beaten that game to death.

551
00:23:12,480 --> 00:23:14,479
Speaker 1: Let's move on here to the Niners and the Packers.

552
00:23:14,560 --> 00:23:15,600
Speaker 1: What's your play from this game.

553
00:23:15,960 --> 00:23:18,719
Speaker 4: I'm gonna be chalky again, I'm gonna be square I'm

554
00:23:18,760 --> 00:23:21,280
Speaker 4: gonna be four sided, but I like this one, man.

555
00:23:21,320 --> 00:23:23,760
Speaker 4: I like San Francisco quite a bit here. And you know,

556
00:23:23,800 --> 00:23:26,560
Speaker 4: people have been trying to fade Green Bay all season long,

557
00:23:26,600 --> 00:23:28,879
Speaker 4: and they haven't had a great amount of success with it.

558
00:23:28,920 --> 00:23:31,680
Speaker 4: But again, this is a team, you know, lowest point

559
00:23:31,720 --> 00:23:35,439
Speaker 4: differential ever for a thirteen win team. And here's the

560
00:23:35,480 --> 00:23:37,359
Speaker 4: thing that's really interesting to me about this game, and

561
00:23:37,400 --> 00:23:40,800
Speaker 4: about the Green Bay side in particular, is that last

562
00:23:40,840 --> 00:23:43,520
Speaker 4: week they out gained Seattle in the first half five

563
00:23:43,560 --> 00:23:46,320
Speaker 4: point nine to five yards per play, and then they

564
00:23:46,400 --> 00:23:49,320
Speaker 4: just completely sat on it. They completely abandoned it. They

565
00:23:49,320 --> 00:23:51,960
Speaker 4: didn't do anything that got them there, and they very

566
00:23:51,960 --> 00:23:54,159
Speaker 4: well could have lost that game. And that's been a

567
00:23:54,200 --> 00:23:56,560
Speaker 4: thing for Green Bay. They've wanted to play from in front.

568
00:23:56,720 --> 00:23:59,120
Speaker 4: They've wanted to do very well in those scripted plays,

569
00:23:59,320 --> 00:24:02,240
Speaker 4: and they have with Matt Lafore. The problem is as

570
00:24:02,280 --> 00:24:05,600
Speaker 4: the game's gone along, they've gotten worse more often than not.

571
00:24:06,040 --> 00:24:08,560
Speaker 4: And I think here, if you get worse against San Francisco,

572
00:24:08,920 --> 00:24:11,920
Speaker 4: they will bury you. They run the football, they rush

573
00:24:12,000 --> 00:24:14,720
Speaker 4: the passer as well as anybody in the NFL. This

574
00:24:14,840 --> 00:24:16,679
Speaker 4: is as bad of a matchup as it gets for

575
00:24:16,720 --> 00:24:20,160
Speaker 4: Green Bay, who always seems to have offensive line injuries.

576
00:24:20,200 --> 00:24:22,760
Speaker 4: But Aaron Rodgers is not the same cat he used

577
00:24:22,800 --> 00:24:24,639
Speaker 4: to be, doesn't throw on the run as well as

578
00:24:24,680 --> 00:24:28,080
Speaker 4: he used to. They're not an explosive offense at all whatsoever.

579
00:24:28,440 --> 00:24:31,960
Speaker 4: San Francisco's defense is great, their offense is explosive with

580
00:24:32,040 --> 00:24:34,560
Speaker 4: the run. And I think Garoppolo is there if you

581
00:24:34,720 --> 00:24:36,760
Speaker 4: need him here in this game. And we'll talk about

582
00:24:36,840 --> 00:24:38,320
Speaker 4: one of my props a little bit later on in

583
00:24:38,320 --> 00:24:41,040
Speaker 4: the segment here. But I just don't think anything matches

584
00:24:41,119 --> 00:24:43,119
Speaker 4: up well for Green Bay here. I think this is

585
00:24:43,160 --> 00:24:46,960
Speaker 4: the same methodical, boring type of win we saw from

586
00:24:46,960 --> 00:24:51,119
Speaker 4: San Francisco last week, a twenty seven to thirteen, twenty

587
00:24:51,160 --> 00:24:53,720
Speaker 4: eight fourteen type of game. I just think they get

588
00:24:53,720 --> 00:24:55,520
Speaker 4: it done and cover the number here, whether you got

589
00:24:55,560 --> 00:24:57,919
Speaker 4: seven or you're taking the seven and a half that's.

590
00:24:57,800 --> 00:24:59,520
Speaker 2: Out there now, I couldn't agree with you more.

591
00:24:59,640 --> 00:25:02,160
Speaker 1: I mean, really, this is why I want to spend

592
00:25:02,200 --> 00:25:03,800
Speaker 1: so much time on the Chiefs Titans game, because I

593
00:25:03,800 --> 00:25:05,320
Speaker 1: think we beat it a little differently. We are in

594
00:25:05,359 --> 00:25:09,200
Speaker 1: lockstep in this game. I have tried a million times

595
00:25:09,320 --> 00:25:12,120
Speaker 1: to come up with a way for the Packers put

596
00:25:12,160 --> 00:25:14,120
Speaker 1: aside the point spread for them to win this game.

597
00:25:14,880 --> 00:25:17,000
Speaker 1: I can't get there. I mean you mentioned the point differential.

598
00:25:17,119 --> 00:25:19,800
Speaker 1: Packers are plus sixty three on the season, the forty

599
00:25:19,880 --> 00:25:22,640
Speaker 1: nine ers are plus one sixty nine. They're both thirteen

600
00:25:22,680 --> 00:25:25,040
Speaker 1: and three, right, I mean one hundred points different.

601
00:25:24,760 --> 00:25:27,159
Speaker 4: And their defense was awful in the second half with

602
00:25:27,240 --> 00:25:30,280
Speaker 4: everybody hurt, and they just went ahead and outscored everybody.

603
00:25:30,320 --> 00:25:34,080
Speaker 1: And you know what their defense is not, you know, unhealthy.

604
00:25:34,119 --> 00:25:36,360
Speaker 1: Now they are at full strength going on right now,

605
00:25:36,359 --> 00:25:39,240
Speaker 1: They've got Tart, Alexander and Ford. They're all back with

606
00:25:39,359 --> 00:25:44,159
Speaker 1: both an armstead. It's just really difficult to see. Here's like, here's.

607
00:25:43,880 --> 00:25:44,520
Speaker 2: The one thing.

608
00:25:44,560 --> 00:25:48,160
Speaker 1: And this is a pure narrative, so this means absolutely nothing.

609
00:25:48,200 --> 00:25:50,760
Speaker 1: I get a little nervous when you have the rematch

610
00:25:50,920 --> 00:25:54,040
Speaker 1: of the complete blowout win in the regular season, right

611
00:25:54,200 --> 00:25:57,440
Speaker 1: for a couple of reasons. One, I feel like you think, well, okay,

612
00:25:57,760 --> 00:26:00,240
Speaker 1: we can just do this again. Right the four nineers like, well,

613
00:26:00,280 --> 00:26:01,840
Speaker 1: we had the formula, we dominated them, we can do

614
00:26:01,880 --> 00:26:04,040
Speaker 1: it again. And then the team that loses they can

615
00:26:04,119 --> 00:26:06,320
Speaker 1: kind of say, okay, well, we obviously can't do what

616
00:26:06,359 --> 00:26:08,359
Speaker 1: we did again. We need to make adjustments. And I

617
00:26:08,359 --> 00:26:10,320
Speaker 1: think back to the twenty ten season. The Jets. You know,

618
00:26:10,320 --> 00:26:12,119
Speaker 1: I'm a Jets fan. They were embarrassed on that Monday

619
00:26:12,160 --> 00:26:14,399
Speaker 1: night game against the Pats forty five to three. They

620
00:26:14,440 --> 00:26:16,360
Speaker 1: met it again in the playoffs and the divisional round.

621
00:26:16,440 --> 00:26:19,280
Speaker 1: Pats basically did the exact same thing. Jets adjusted and

622
00:26:19,320 --> 00:26:22,000
Speaker 1: they won. That's born out in championship rounds. General trend

623
00:26:22,080 --> 00:26:24,320
Speaker 1: is rematches where one team is blown out an opponent.

624
00:26:24,320 --> 00:26:27,240
Speaker 1: They rarely cover the spread in the second one. But

625
00:26:27,720 --> 00:26:30,679
Speaker 1: even so, man, that game. Don't forget the Packers were

626
00:26:30,720 --> 00:26:33,399
Speaker 1: coming off a bye in that first game, and the

627
00:26:33,440 --> 00:26:37,280
Speaker 1: forty nine Ers were not in any way healthy defensively, right,

628
00:26:37,320 --> 00:26:40,159
Speaker 1: they were missing Alexander and they were missing Ford, I

629
00:26:40,160 --> 00:26:42,600
Speaker 1: believe in that game. So I don't see it. You know,

630
00:26:42,800 --> 00:26:45,880
Speaker 1: the forty nine ers. You know, the Packers have one

631
00:26:46,119 --> 00:26:49,560
Speaker 1: pass catcher, DeVante Adams. They don't really have a second receiver.

632
00:26:49,680 --> 00:26:52,880
Speaker 1: It's just really difficult to see anything happen. They're elite

633
00:26:52,880 --> 00:26:55,280
Speaker 1: on third down. I just I can't make the case, man,

634
00:26:55,280 --> 00:26:57,359
Speaker 1: I mean, I guess is it possible that Jimmy g

635
00:26:57,520 --> 00:27:00,760
Speaker 1: comes out there and you know he wasn't great, you know,

636
00:27:00,880 --> 00:27:04,000
Speaker 1: against the Vikings, he obviously had that really bad interception

637
00:27:04,119 --> 00:27:06,440
Speaker 1: that you know, gave the Vikings the ball deep in

638
00:27:06,480 --> 00:27:09,280
Speaker 1: their territory. Is it possible that Jimmy G comes out

639
00:27:09,320 --> 00:27:12,080
Speaker 1: here and just lays a complete egg? Is that any

640
00:27:12,160 --> 00:27:14,119
Speaker 1: way that we could see the Packers really getting in

641
00:27:14,119 --> 00:27:14,560
Speaker 1: this game?

642
00:27:15,520 --> 00:27:16,720
Speaker 3: It's certainly possible.

643
00:27:16,760 --> 00:27:19,200
Speaker 4: I mean, I've had a long time man crush on

644
00:27:19,280 --> 00:27:22,480
Speaker 4: Kyle Shanahan, so I think that's I think he's gonna be.

645
00:27:23,040 --> 00:27:24,800
Speaker 4: He's gonna be in top form here, you know, on

646
00:27:24,880 --> 00:27:26,639
Speaker 4: both sides of the ball. I think the guy is

647
00:27:26,640 --> 00:27:29,800
Speaker 4: just absolutely brilliant. The Browns completely effed up not keeping

648
00:27:29,880 --> 00:27:31,760
Speaker 4: him around when he was there. I mean, he was

649
00:27:31,760 --> 00:27:36,720
Speaker 4: the offensive coordinator with just a complete disaster on offense,

650
00:27:36,720 --> 00:27:38,960
Speaker 4: and he's still able to get guys open that were

651
00:27:39,000 --> 00:27:41,280
Speaker 4: like your journey men, guys that aren't even in the

652
00:27:41,359 --> 00:27:43,280
Speaker 4: NFL anymore, and he was able to get guys like

653
00:27:43,320 --> 00:27:45,560
Speaker 4: that open. I think he's able to get some guys

654
00:27:45,560 --> 00:27:48,200
Speaker 4: open for Garoppolo here. It would certainly help if you know,

655
00:27:48,280 --> 00:27:50,399
Speaker 4: Jimmy G could make a few throws early on. But

656
00:27:50,960 --> 00:27:53,880
Speaker 4: something we didn't talk about with the Tennessee Kansas City game,

657
00:27:53,880 --> 00:27:56,879
Speaker 4: I'll reference it here now. In that game back in

658
00:27:56,960 --> 00:28:00,480
Speaker 4: week ten. Keep in mind Kansas City with Mahomes off shelf,

659
00:28:00,840 --> 00:28:03,600
Speaker 4: was a five point road favorite. Yes, so you flip

660
00:28:03,640 --> 00:28:06,840
Speaker 4: home field, you're talking about Kansas City minus eleven and

661
00:28:06,960 --> 00:28:09,879
Speaker 4: hear they're minus seven in this game. That gets a

662
00:28:09,880 --> 00:28:12,439
Speaker 4: little bit of an overreaction to what Tennessee has done.

663
00:28:12,680 --> 00:28:15,280
Speaker 4: In the first meeting here between Green Bay and San Francisco,

664
00:28:15,640 --> 00:28:18,680
Speaker 4: the forty nine Ers were minus three, and the previous

665
00:28:18,720 --> 00:28:20,920
Speaker 4: three games, again green Bay was coming off of a bye.

666
00:28:20,920 --> 00:28:23,200
Speaker 4: As you mentioned, the previous three games for the forty

667
00:28:23,280 --> 00:28:26,200
Speaker 4: nine ers, the game against Arizona where they didn't play

668
00:28:26,240 --> 00:28:29,840
Speaker 4: particularly well. They lost the game to Seattle, and then

669
00:28:29,880 --> 00:28:32,440
Speaker 4: the other game against Arizona where they wound up actually

670
00:28:32,480 --> 00:28:35,159
Speaker 4: pushing the number for most people, but that was because

671
00:28:35,160 --> 00:28:38,680
Speaker 4: they scored that really weird late touchdown that you know,

672
00:28:38,760 --> 00:28:40,640
Speaker 4: kind of threw everything out of whack in that game.

673
00:28:40,920 --> 00:28:43,320
Speaker 4: The three games before that they did not play well.

674
00:28:43,560 --> 00:28:45,920
Speaker 4: A few weeks before that they had beat Washington nine

675
00:28:45,920 --> 00:28:48,000
Speaker 4: to nothing. They were the first team not to cover

676
00:28:48,080 --> 00:28:50,080
Speaker 4: the spread and a shutout in like I think it

677
00:28:50,120 --> 00:28:51,440
Speaker 4: was like thirty years or something.

678
00:28:51,480 --> 00:28:51,560
Speaker 3: Now.

679
00:28:51,640 --> 00:28:53,560
Speaker 1: It was a monsoon though, right that game, yea, that

680
00:28:53,640 --> 00:28:54,320
Speaker 1: was a crazy game.

681
00:28:54,440 --> 00:28:56,680
Speaker 4: Right, It was a crazy game, but they hadn't They

682
00:28:56,840 --> 00:28:59,760
Speaker 4: beaten Carolina badly, but other than that, they hadn't played

683
00:29:00,000 --> 00:29:02,960
Speaker 4: particularly well before that. And then just all the sudden

684
00:29:03,000 --> 00:29:06,640
Speaker 4: showed up and pummeled Green Bay. And now this line

685
00:29:06,880 --> 00:29:09,360
Speaker 4: is adjusted from that minus three we saw on Sunday

686
00:29:09,440 --> 00:29:11,720
Speaker 4: Night Football to minus seven and a half, and I

687
00:29:11,800 --> 00:29:14,880
Speaker 4: think this one is completely justified. I don't know if

688
00:29:14,920 --> 00:29:16,479
Speaker 4: seven and a half is high enough. I'd put this

689
00:29:16,480 --> 00:29:18,600
Speaker 4: one more like eight and a half. And keep in mind,

690
00:29:18,640 --> 00:29:20,920
Speaker 4: actually out in Las Vegas at the Westgates super Book,

691
00:29:21,160 --> 00:29:24,440
Speaker 4: this one opened nine and a half, so well, I

692
00:29:24,440 --> 00:29:26,600
Speaker 4: guess it was actually the Kansas City game. I apologize

693
00:29:26,600 --> 00:29:29,560
Speaker 4: for miss speaking there, but this is a situation where

694
00:29:29,800 --> 00:29:31,160
Speaker 4: can you look back to last week?

695
00:29:31,240 --> 00:29:31,400
Speaker 3: Right?

696
00:29:31,760 --> 00:29:34,960
Speaker 4: San Francisco hosting Minnesota. Line open six and a half

697
00:29:35,200 --> 00:29:38,880
Speaker 4: gets bet to seven. This one opens seven, gets bet

698
00:29:38,880 --> 00:29:40,960
Speaker 4: to seven and a half. Keep in mind, green Bay

699
00:29:41,000 --> 00:29:44,160
Speaker 4: beat Minnesota twice in the regular season and won the

700
00:29:44,160 --> 00:29:47,680
Speaker 4: division over the Vikings, and that implied that Minnesota would

701
00:29:47,680 --> 00:29:49,760
Speaker 4: be a favorite on a neutral over green Bay, and

702
00:29:49,800 --> 00:29:52,000
Speaker 4: I agree. I think Minnesota was the third best team

703
00:29:52,000 --> 00:29:55,120
Speaker 4: in the NFC coming into the playoffs. Behind San Francisco,

704
00:29:55,480 --> 00:29:58,360
Speaker 4: behind New Orleans. I don't think Green Bay stands a

705
00:29:58,400 --> 00:29:58,760
Speaker 4: chance here.

706
00:29:58,800 --> 00:30:02,120
Speaker 1: I really don't do I Man, I really think when

707
00:30:02,120 --> 00:30:04,640
Speaker 1: they're fully healthy defensively like they are right now, the

708
00:30:04,640 --> 00:30:08,880
Speaker 1: forty nine ers are so so difficult to beat, you know, again,

709
00:30:09,800 --> 00:30:12,280
Speaker 1: like any quarterback really, but especially a guy like Rogers.

710
00:30:12,320 --> 00:30:14,400
Speaker 1: Same thing with Cousins last week. The key is you

711
00:30:14,440 --> 00:30:16,520
Speaker 1: got to be able to get pressure on him without blitzing.

712
00:30:16,560 --> 00:30:21,200
Speaker 1: That's exactly what the forty nine ers do there. And offensively,

713
00:30:21,600 --> 00:30:24,040
Speaker 1: they're elite running the ball, as you know. You know,

714
00:30:24,080 --> 00:30:27,600
Speaker 1: they average second most rushing yards per game this season,

715
00:30:27,680 --> 00:30:29,960
Speaker 1: and that's how you attack the Packers, right Their past

716
00:30:29,960 --> 00:30:32,440
Speaker 1: defense is solid overall, but you can attack them on

717
00:30:32,480 --> 00:30:34,720
Speaker 1: the ground. They allowed four point seven yards per carry

718
00:30:34,720 --> 00:30:36,560
Speaker 1: on the season. So in the end, this is going

719
00:30:36,600 --> 00:30:39,000
Speaker 1: to be a game probably similar, you know, to to

720
00:30:39,080 --> 00:30:40,440
Speaker 1: how the forty nine ers like to do it. They're

721
00:30:40,480 --> 00:30:42,840
Speaker 1: going to dominate with their defense, They're going to dominate

722
00:30:42,840 --> 00:30:44,479
Speaker 1: with their running game, and then Jimmy g is going

723
00:30:44,520 --> 00:30:46,320
Speaker 1: to be able to pop off and do a couple

724
00:30:46,400 --> 00:30:49,200
Speaker 1: of play action passes and have a big game or two.

725
00:30:49,240 --> 00:30:51,000
Speaker 1: So you and I are seeing it the same way now,

726
00:30:51,040 --> 00:30:54,560
Speaker 1: because one of your plays is obviously the forty nine

727
00:30:54,640 --> 00:30:56,520
Speaker 1: ers laying seven and a half. I'll just get a

728
00:30:56,560 --> 00:30:59,320
Speaker 1: little creative here and I'll do another two team teaser

729
00:30:59,320 --> 00:31:01,760
Speaker 1: just so I could take some different again. I like

730
00:31:02,160 --> 00:31:04,440
Speaker 1: when you tease the total on the Chiefs Titans game

731
00:31:04,480 --> 00:31:06,840
Speaker 1: to up six points. I'm gonna take that under forty

732
00:31:06,840 --> 00:31:08,880
Speaker 1: eight and a five and fifty eight and a half,

733
00:31:08,920 --> 00:31:11,200
Speaker 1: pardon me. And I'm gonna tease this line down to

734
00:31:11,280 --> 00:31:12,960
Speaker 1: one and a half for the forty nine ers because

735
00:31:13,040 --> 00:31:15,520
Speaker 1: you know you're above a touchdown. He never know, something

736
00:31:15,520 --> 00:31:17,800
Speaker 1: crazy get happen. So I'll just tease it down to

737
00:31:17,960 --> 00:31:19,760
Speaker 1: one and a half here and pair that with the

738
00:31:19,800 --> 00:31:21,680
Speaker 1: Chiefs Titans under fifty eight and a half. But I

739
00:31:21,720 --> 00:31:23,360
Speaker 1: agree with you at seven and a half. I'm more

740
00:31:23,400 --> 00:31:24,880
Speaker 1: than fine with it. I don't think this is gonna

741
00:31:24,880 --> 00:31:26,760
Speaker 1: be close. I think they're gonna really hit them hard.

742
00:31:27,120 --> 00:31:29,280
Speaker 1: And right now, say look, I mean, let's hope we

743
00:31:29,320 --> 00:31:32,080
Speaker 1: see a Chiefs nothing against the Packers, nothing against the Titans.

744
00:31:32,080 --> 00:31:34,360
Speaker 1: But I really hope we see a Chiefs forty nine

745
00:31:34,440 --> 00:31:36,560
Speaker 1: or Super Bowl because that'll be a fun one to watch.

746
00:31:37,080 --> 00:31:39,840
Speaker 4: That's what I'm hoping for I think it's also really

747
00:31:39,840 --> 00:31:42,840
Speaker 4: interesting from a prop betting standpoint too, because you've got

748
00:31:42,840 --> 00:31:46,280
Speaker 4: this elite San Francisco defense, this elite pass rush.

749
00:31:46,400 --> 00:31:48,320
Speaker 3: Mahomes is very mobile.

750
00:31:48,040 --> 00:31:51,040
Speaker 4: As we know, but San Francisco doesn't have to put

751
00:31:51,040 --> 00:31:52,760
Speaker 4: a fifth or six guy in there to blitz, like

752
00:31:52,800 --> 00:31:55,600
Speaker 4: you said, they just get pressure with four. So is

753
00:31:55,640 --> 00:31:58,640
Speaker 4: Mahomes able to find Kelsey? Does he have the time

754
00:31:58,880 --> 00:32:00,960
Speaker 4: to find Tyreek Hill before got to bail out and

755
00:32:01,000 --> 00:32:03,160
Speaker 4: get two or three yards with a scramble. From a

756
00:32:03,200 --> 00:32:05,720
Speaker 4: prop standpoint, it's gonna be a fascinating super Bowl if

757
00:32:05,720 --> 00:32:07,760
Speaker 4: that's what we get. But one other thing I want

758
00:32:07,760 --> 00:32:10,560
Speaker 4: to mention here is we talked about it with our

759
00:32:10,560 --> 00:32:13,680
Speaker 4: disagreement with Tennessee and Kansas City, where if you like Tennessee,

760
00:32:13,720 --> 00:32:15,760
Speaker 4: you're probably hoping for the under, if you like Kansas City,

761
00:32:15,760 --> 00:32:19,320
Speaker 4: you're probably thinking the over. I don't see the same

762
00:32:19,400 --> 00:32:22,040
Speaker 4: correlation here with what we're seeing with the line move

763
00:32:22,160 --> 00:32:25,200
Speaker 4: of San Francisco going up to seven and a half

764
00:32:25,240 --> 00:32:27,520
Speaker 4: and the total going up to forty six and a half,

765
00:32:27,880 --> 00:32:31,520
Speaker 4: because you would think, given that San Francisco defense, a

766
00:32:31,600 --> 00:32:34,520
Speaker 4: higher scoring game is green Bay's best chance because they've

767
00:32:34,520 --> 00:32:37,960
Speaker 4: got Aaron Rodgers against Jimmy Garoppolo. So the total moving

768
00:32:38,040 --> 00:32:40,280
Speaker 4: up a little bit is something of a head scratcher

769
00:32:40,320 --> 00:32:40,520
Speaker 4: to me.

770
00:32:40,880 --> 00:32:43,160
Speaker 1: I completely agree with you, because in the end, with

771
00:32:43,240 --> 00:32:45,920
Speaker 1: the forty nine Ers winning, you have to assume the

772
00:32:45,920 --> 00:32:47,720
Speaker 1: Packers are not gonna put up a ton of points.

773
00:32:47,760 --> 00:32:49,280
Speaker 1: You don't see, Yeah, the forty nine Ers are gonna

774
00:32:49,320 --> 00:32:51,400
Speaker 1: win this game in a shootout, although you know it

775
00:32:51,440 --> 00:32:53,360
Speaker 1: could be something like you know what happened with the

776
00:32:53,840 --> 00:32:55,520
Speaker 1: Saints game that time. You know it could be that

777
00:32:55,640 --> 00:32:57,440
Speaker 1: suddenly you have this game where it's gonna be one

778
00:32:57,480 --> 00:32:58,840
Speaker 1: hundred points scored or something like that.

779
00:32:58,960 --> 00:32:59,720
Speaker 2: But I don't see that.

780
00:32:59,720 --> 00:33:03,440
Speaker 1: From the Packers' offense whatsoever. So I agree, it's a

781
00:33:03,480 --> 00:33:06,000
Speaker 1: little strange to see the movement, as we talked about

782
00:33:06,040 --> 00:33:09,680
Speaker 1: before we start recording, trending up with the total given

783
00:33:09,720 --> 00:33:11,920
Speaker 1: where things are. So it's a good point that you make.

784
00:33:11,960 --> 00:33:14,760
Speaker 1: But let's recap here what we've got. Your three bats

785
00:33:14,800 --> 00:33:16,800
Speaker 1: are going to take the Chiefs lanks seven and a half,

786
00:33:16,880 --> 00:33:18,760
Speaker 1: the forty nine Ers lengths seven and a half, and

787
00:33:18,800 --> 00:33:21,440
Speaker 1: the Titans chiefs over fifty two and a half. Those

788
00:33:21,480 --> 00:33:24,680
Speaker 1: are square plays, my friend. But it's I like them.

789
00:33:24,800 --> 00:33:26,560
Speaker 1: I can't say I really disagree with any of them

790
00:33:26,600 --> 00:33:27,760
Speaker 1: except for the Chiefs.

791
00:33:27,920 --> 00:33:28,120
Speaker 2: Well.

792
00:33:28,200 --> 00:33:29,760
Speaker 1: I mean, I guess the over under on the fifty

793
00:33:29,760 --> 00:33:31,360
Speaker 1: two and a half, but I'm lukewarm on that. The

794
00:33:31,400 --> 00:33:33,760
Speaker 1: one I disagree with for me is the Chiefs lank

795
00:33:33,800 --> 00:33:35,160
Speaker 1: seven and a half. For me, I'm going to take

796
00:33:35,200 --> 00:33:38,080
Speaker 1: the first half and the Chiefs and the Titans over

797
00:33:38,200 --> 00:33:40,840
Speaker 1: twenty six points or anything below that. I'm going to

798
00:33:40,920 --> 00:33:42,960
Speaker 1: tease the Titans to plus thirteen and a half and

799
00:33:43,000 --> 00:33:44,840
Speaker 1: the under in that game to fifteen and a half,

800
00:33:44,960 --> 00:33:46,760
Speaker 1: and then I'm going to take a two team teaser

801
00:33:46,800 --> 00:33:49,120
Speaker 1: where again I will tease the total to fifty eight

802
00:33:49,160 --> 00:33:51,520
Speaker 1: and a half and the Chiefs Titans game, But then

803
00:33:51,560 --> 00:33:53,560
Speaker 1: I will take the forty nine Ers laying one and

804
00:33:53,560 --> 00:33:55,880
Speaker 1: a half. Before we move on, let's talk about bet

805
00:33:55,960 --> 00:33:58,240
Speaker 1: MGM and the bet MGM Sports app. If you have

806
00:33:58,280 --> 00:34:00,480
Speaker 1: your phone handy, you can just search for download the

807
00:34:00,520 --> 00:34:03,280
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808
00:34:03,600 --> 00:34:05,400
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809
00:34:05,400 --> 00:34:07,040
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810
00:34:07,120 --> 00:34:10,479
Speaker 1: it is my last name, Harris, deposit whatever mount you want.

811
00:34:10,560 --> 00:34:13,240
Speaker 1: You're ready to bet, but don't rush in to bet

812
00:34:13,280 --> 00:34:15,480
Speaker 1: just anything. Make sure your first bet is a one

813
00:34:15,560 --> 00:34:18,560
Speaker 1: dollar money line bet on any of the four teams

814
00:34:18,600 --> 00:34:21,839
Speaker 1: playing on Sunday. If you do, then if any team

815
00:34:21,920 --> 00:34:24,279
Speaker 1: scores a touchdown this weekend, not necessarily the team you

816
00:34:24,320 --> 00:34:26,640
Speaker 1: bet on, not necessarily in the game they played in

817
00:34:26,680 --> 00:34:30,160
Speaker 1: any team this weekend, you win two hundred dollars in

818
00:34:30,239 --> 00:34:32,880
Speaker 1: free bets. Your one dollar bet does not matter for

819
00:34:32,920 --> 00:34:35,640
Speaker 1: that you win so long as any team scores a touchdown,

820
00:34:35,640 --> 00:34:37,560
Speaker 1: and you can place your bet at any time before

821
00:34:37,640 --> 00:34:41,000
Speaker 1: kickoff of the forty nine Ers Packers game. You just

822
00:34:41,040 --> 00:34:42,560
Speaker 1: heard me and Adam debate if the Chiefs and the

823
00:34:42,560 --> 00:34:45,120
Speaker 1: Titans are going over fifty two and a half points,

824
00:34:45,280 --> 00:34:46,840
Speaker 1: but you've got a strong bet that there's going to

825
00:34:46,880 --> 00:34:49,080
Speaker 1: be at least a touchdown scored in that game. So again,

826
00:34:49,520 --> 00:34:52,200
Speaker 1: download the bet mgm Sports app, open an account, use

827
00:34:52,239 --> 00:34:55,200
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828
00:34:55,200 --> 00:34:57,239
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829
00:34:57,320 --> 00:34:58,920
Speaker 1: one years or older, and although you can sign up

830
00:34:58,920 --> 00:35:01,160
Speaker 1: an easily deposit money anywhere, you must be in the

831
00:35:01,200 --> 00:35:03,319
Speaker 1: state of New Jersey to place a sports bet, and

832
00:35:03,360 --> 00:35:06,359
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833
00:35:06,360 --> 00:35:08,279
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834
00:35:08,320 --> 00:35:11,160
Speaker 1: gambling problem, call one eight hundred gambler. All right, sir,

835
00:35:11,320 --> 00:35:12,439
Speaker 1: let's move on to bet.

836
00:35:12,520 --> 00:35:14,400
Speaker 4: Say, man, I think you'd have to call one eight

837
00:35:14,480 --> 00:35:16,759
Speaker 4: hundred gambler if you ran bad enough to not win

838
00:35:16,840 --> 00:35:17,520
Speaker 4: that free bet.

839
00:35:17,719 --> 00:35:20,520
Speaker 1: I'm telling you, they offer these free bets all the time.

840
00:35:20,600 --> 00:35:22,520
Speaker 1: I don't know how they stay in business because they're

841
00:35:22,880 --> 00:35:25,799
Speaker 1: so incredibly you can't lose them. I mean, you had

842
00:35:25,800 --> 00:35:28,600
Speaker 1: this similar thing last week. You have all these things where,

843
00:35:28,600 --> 00:35:30,080
Speaker 1: you know, I think you had one where if Dak

844
00:35:30,120 --> 00:35:32,960
Speaker 1: Prescott completed a single pass, you want, you know, one

845
00:35:33,040 --> 00:35:35,640
Speaker 1: hundreds of dollars in bets. I mean, really, if you

846
00:35:35,680 --> 00:35:38,879
Speaker 1: don't have an account yet at bet MGM, you really

847
00:35:38,880 --> 00:35:40,640
Speaker 1: need to download the app and just sign up use

848
00:35:40,680 --> 00:35:43,320
Speaker 1: our promo code because these things they're not a rarity.

849
00:35:43,239 --> 00:35:45,120
Speaker 1: They're offered all the time and you can really take

850
00:35:45,160 --> 00:35:47,120
Speaker 1: advantage of them. All right, let's move on to a

851
00:35:47,120 --> 00:35:49,920
Speaker 1: bet to avoid. There's not much left. We've you know,

852
00:35:49,960 --> 00:35:52,200
Speaker 1: talked about the game, so my guess is we're seeing

853
00:35:52,200 --> 00:35:52,760
Speaker 1: this similarly.

854
00:35:52,840 --> 00:35:54,600
Speaker 2: So what is your one bet to avoid this weekend?

855
00:35:55,040 --> 00:35:55,600
Speaker 2: My bet to.

856
00:35:55,560 --> 00:35:58,480
Speaker 4: Avoid's gotta be the screen bay San Francisco total, it's

857
00:35:58,760 --> 00:35:59,880
Speaker 4: a real head scratcher to me.

858
00:36:00,120 --> 00:36:01,319
Speaker 3: And you mentioned how square I am.

859
00:36:01,360 --> 00:36:03,000
Speaker 4: It's kind of been the year of the square, I guess,

860
00:36:03,040 --> 00:36:05,879
Speaker 4: with Clemson not coming through for so much sharp money

861
00:36:05,880 --> 00:36:07,920
Speaker 4: that was on them in the National Championship game. But

862
00:36:09,239 --> 00:36:12,360
Speaker 4: this total is it's mystifying to me because if you

863
00:36:12,480 --> 00:36:15,120
Speaker 4: like San Francisco, you probably don't want to see a

864
00:36:15,160 --> 00:36:16,720
Speaker 4: higher scoring game here in this one.

865
00:36:16,880 --> 00:36:17,040
Speaker 3: Now.

866
00:36:17,080 --> 00:36:20,400
Speaker 4: However, that being said, as I'm kind of thinking this

867
00:36:20,440 --> 00:36:22,440
Speaker 4: one through in my mind a little bit again in

868
00:36:22,560 --> 00:36:25,719
Speaker 4: concert with that move on San Francisco, the total going

869
00:36:25,800 --> 00:36:28,880
Speaker 4: up implies to me that San Francisco is going to

870
00:36:28,880 --> 00:36:32,120
Speaker 4: have success here offensively, and I think this one can

871
00:36:32,160 --> 00:36:35,560
Speaker 4: still stay under even if San Francisco does have success offensively,

872
00:36:35,600 --> 00:36:38,200
Speaker 4: like a thirty one to thirteen type game, that's not

873
00:36:38,239 --> 00:36:39,200
Speaker 4: gonna surprise me at all.

874
00:36:39,239 --> 00:36:41,000
Speaker 1: Well, you saw that in the first game they played, right,

875
00:36:41,040 --> 00:36:43,239
Speaker 1: It was thirty eight seven in that first game. I mean,

876
00:36:43,480 --> 00:36:46,160
Speaker 1: the forty nine ers dominated, but it still hit forty five, which,

877
00:36:46,160 --> 00:36:48,000
Speaker 1: by the way, is where it opened. So that was

878
00:36:48,040 --> 00:36:51,279
Speaker 1: a good opening number. I'm told this is the one

879
00:36:51,280 --> 00:36:52,840
Speaker 1: I'm avoiding too. I mean, we talked about it a

880
00:36:52,840 --> 00:36:54,640
Speaker 1: little bit. I just I don't get First of all,

881
00:36:54,760 --> 00:36:57,200
Speaker 1: I don't feel comfortable with the number wherever it is right.

882
00:36:57,200 --> 00:36:59,040
Speaker 1: There are some numbers you look at and you have

883
00:36:59,360 --> 00:37:01,239
Speaker 1: a gut instant right, and then you sort of dig

884
00:37:01,280 --> 00:37:02,960
Speaker 1: into it and you take your position.

885
00:37:03,160 --> 00:37:04,919
Speaker 2: For this one, I just don't.

886
00:37:04,800 --> 00:37:07,160
Speaker 1: Have a real good feel because it's hard for me

887
00:37:07,239 --> 00:37:10,080
Speaker 1: to see the packers again, as we talked about putting

888
00:37:10,160 --> 00:37:12,160
Speaker 1: up too many points, but you can easily see the

889
00:37:12,200 --> 00:37:14,120
Speaker 1: forty nine ers going nuts and putting up a crazy

890
00:37:14,160 --> 00:37:15,600
Speaker 1: amount of points. I just I don't have a real

891
00:37:15,640 --> 00:37:16,600
Speaker 1: good feel for how to bet it.

892
00:37:16,640 --> 00:37:18,799
Speaker 3: You know, No, No, neither do. I'll tell you another bet.

893
00:37:18,840 --> 00:37:21,200
Speaker 3: I'm gonna avoid the Pro Bowl next week. I will

894
00:37:21,239 --> 00:37:23,320
Speaker 3: not be putting anything on the Pro Bowl. I promise

895
00:37:23,360 --> 00:37:23,560
Speaker 3: you that.

896
00:37:23,760 --> 00:37:26,080
Speaker 1: Do you ever bet the Pro Bowl out of curiosity? No?

897
00:37:26,120 --> 00:37:28,160
Speaker 2: Absolutely not, no, absolutely no. It's too bad.

898
00:37:28,160 --> 00:37:31,799
Speaker 1: I'm gonna be down in Orlando. I'm leaving just before

899
00:37:31,800 --> 00:37:32,200
Speaker 1: the Pro Bowl.

900
00:37:32,280 --> 00:37:32,680
Speaker 2: Unfortunately.

901
00:37:32,719 --> 00:37:35,320
Speaker 1: Otherwise I would watch and still probably avoid betting on

902
00:37:35,360 --> 00:37:36,920
Speaker 1: it because it's not something that I want to go near.

903
00:37:37,080 --> 00:37:37,200
Speaker 2: All.

904
00:37:37,239 --> 00:37:38,799
Speaker 1: Right, before we get to our final segment, I want

905
00:37:38,840 --> 00:37:42,240
Speaker 1: to remind everyone about our signed Michael Thomas Saint's helmet Giveaway.

906
00:37:42,520 --> 00:37:45,280
Speaker 1: Our contest is running through January thirty first at eleven

907
00:37:45,480 --> 00:37:47,319
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908
00:37:47,360 --> 00:37:50,040
Speaker 1: in your entry. Go to Bettingpros dot com slash contest

909
00:37:50,080 --> 00:37:51,920
Speaker 1: for more details, but to enter, just leave a review

910
00:37:51,960 --> 00:37:54,279
Speaker 1: for the show on Apple Podcasts or Stitcher. Send the

911
00:37:54,280 --> 00:37:57,160
Speaker 1: screenshot of that review to contest at bettingpros dot com.

912
00:37:57,360 --> 00:37:59,920
Speaker 1: The Michael Thomas helmet comes from Pristine Auction, where they

913
00:37:59,920 --> 00:38:02,600
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914
00:38:02,640 --> 00:38:05,640
Speaker 1: auctions every single day. Just go to Pristineauction dot com.

915
00:38:05,680 --> 00:38:09,319
Speaker 1: That's pristi n e auction dot com. When you go there,

916
00:38:09,400 --> 00:38:11,719
Speaker 1: use our promo code Betting Pros. You'll win a free

917
00:38:11,840 --> 00:38:14,799
Speaker 1: five dollars voucher instantly. All right, let's finish things up

918
00:38:14,840 --> 00:38:17,279
Speaker 1: with top prop. What's your favorite player prop as of

919
00:38:17,360 --> 00:38:17,800
Speaker 1: right now?

920
00:38:18,239 --> 00:38:19,880
Speaker 3: Well, I guess we sort of just talked about it

921
00:38:19,880 --> 00:38:20,400
Speaker 3: a little bit here.

922
00:38:20,440 --> 00:38:22,400
Speaker 4: I was kind of scouring around looking for a prop,

923
00:38:22,440 --> 00:38:24,040
Speaker 4: and I'm sure a lot of people are gonna have

924
00:38:24,120 --> 00:38:26,200
Speaker 4: Derrick Henry exposure this week. I'm sure a lot of

925
00:38:26,239 --> 00:38:29,760
Speaker 4: people will have Mahomes or Kelsey or Hill or basically

926
00:38:29,800 --> 00:38:31,839
Speaker 4: anybody in that game you want to take a look at.

927
00:38:31,880 --> 00:38:34,040
Speaker 4: But for me, I saw kind of an interesting one

928
00:38:34,080 --> 00:38:38,680
Speaker 4: out there, Jimmy Garoppolo's longest completion over thirty nine yards.

929
00:38:39,280 --> 00:38:41,719
Speaker 4: And again, as I'm looking at this game, as I'm

930
00:38:41,760 --> 00:38:44,440
Speaker 4: kind of going through this handicap, to see the line

931
00:38:44,520 --> 00:38:47,320
Speaker 4: go up and see that total go up, does imply

932
00:38:47,440 --> 00:38:49,400
Speaker 4: to me that San Francisco is going to move the

933
00:38:49,440 --> 00:38:52,319
Speaker 4: football here, going to get some points. Jimmy G's got

934
00:38:52,360 --> 00:38:54,920
Speaker 4: some decent weapons out there. And again, as you mentioned,

935
00:38:54,960 --> 00:38:57,240
Speaker 4: Green Bay's run defense not particularly strong.

936
00:38:57,480 --> 00:38:59,000
Speaker 3: You sell out against the run.

937
00:38:59,000 --> 00:39:02,160
Speaker 4: Safety, gets caught in some sort of play action, Jimmy

938
00:39:02,200 --> 00:39:03,680
Speaker 4: G all of a sudden a catch and run to

939
00:39:03,800 --> 00:39:06,839
Speaker 4: Sanders or Debo or somebody. I think Jimmy G's got

940
00:39:06,880 --> 00:39:10,160
Speaker 4: a chance at certainly being better than last week's past numbers.

941
00:39:10,160 --> 00:39:11,400
Speaker 4: I think he's going to chance at a couple of

942
00:39:11,400 --> 00:39:13,960
Speaker 4: big plays here in this one. So Jimmy G over

943
00:39:14,080 --> 00:39:16,120
Speaker 4: thirty nine yards longest completion is the prop.

944
00:39:16,200 --> 00:39:18,640
Speaker 1: For me, I actually love this prop, and I think

945
00:39:18,640 --> 00:39:21,400
Speaker 1: it sort of plays into exactly how we see the

946
00:39:21,440 --> 00:39:24,560
Speaker 1: game going, which is, as you said, you know how

947
00:39:24,640 --> 00:39:27,640
Speaker 1: to attack the Packers defense, they are vulnerable on the ground,

948
00:39:27,719 --> 00:39:30,160
Speaker 1: and that's what the forty nine are specialized in. But

949
00:39:30,280 --> 00:39:33,239
Speaker 1: you know, Shanahan is so creative offensively, you know there's

950
00:39:33,280 --> 00:39:35,040
Speaker 1: going to be a play where you know it's going

951
00:39:35,120 --> 00:39:37,440
Speaker 1: to be probably play action, or it's gonna be something crazy,

952
00:39:37,560 --> 00:39:39,440
Speaker 1: and there's going to be at least one really long one.

953
00:39:39,480 --> 00:39:41,880
Speaker 1: So certainly I think that plays in perfectly to how

954
00:39:41,920 --> 00:39:42,640
Speaker 1: that game unfolds.

955
00:39:42,640 --> 00:39:43,880
Speaker 2: As for me, I'm going.

956
00:39:43,719 --> 00:39:46,440
Speaker 1: To be incredibly square here and I'm going to take

957
00:39:46,480 --> 00:39:48,759
Speaker 1: Derrick Henry. As you mentioned, over one hundred and nine

958
00:39:48,760 --> 00:39:51,239
Speaker 1: and a half rushing yards and minus one twenty one.

959
00:39:51,320 --> 00:39:54,319
Speaker 1: Those are terrible odds and a ridiculous number, but I

960
00:39:54,360 --> 00:39:57,240
Speaker 1: am tired of betting against them. I had under last

961
00:39:57,280 --> 00:39:59,640
Speaker 1: week and ninety four and a half yards. They are

962
00:39:59,680 --> 00:40:01,879
Speaker 1: just gonna this is what they're gonna do. The way

963
00:40:01,920 --> 00:40:05,080
Speaker 1: this doesn't hit again is if maybe, maybe, if the

964
00:40:05,120 --> 00:40:08,120
Speaker 1: Chiefs get up huge right away. Even then, though even then,

965
00:40:08,200 --> 00:40:10,000
Speaker 1: I don't think the Titans are suddenly gonna go into

966
00:40:10,000 --> 00:40:11,600
Speaker 1: this thing where all right, Ryan Tanne'll throw the ball

967
00:40:11,640 --> 00:40:14,120
Speaker 1: fifty times. I think They're gonna try to at least

968
00:40:14,200 --> 00:40:16,560
Speaker 1: let their defense regroup again. They played a ton of

969
00:40:16,560 --> 00:40:18,040
Speaker 1: snaps last week. That's one of the things we didn't

970
00:40:18,040 --> 00:40:21,520
Speaker 1: talk about. They played over ninety snaps against the Ravens,

971
00:40:21,520 --> 00:40:24,240
Speaker 1: so they're probably a little tired, which doesn't exactly support

972
00:40:24,280 --> 00:40:26,040
Speaker 1: the way I see the game unfolding. But either way,

973
00:40:26,120 --> 00:40:28,439
Speaker 1: they're gonna try to keep their defense off the field

974
00:40:28,440 --> 00:40:30,560
Speaker 1: as much as possible, regardless of what the score is,

975
00:40:30,960 --> 00:40:32,600
Speaker 1: and you know that's how they move the ball. So

976
00:40:32,640 --> 00:40:34,840
Speaker 1: one hundred and nine and a half yards minus one

977
00:40:34,920 --> 00:40:37,520
Speaker 1: twenty one, it's it's a ridiculous number, but I think

978
00:40:37,560 --> 00:40:39,120
Speaker 1: it is the only other one that I would like,

979
00:40:39,160 --> 00:40:40,600
Speaker 1: And this is more of just a fun one. You

980
00:40:40,600 --> 00:40:42,160
Speaker 1: want to have a little fun in the game. Is

981
00:40:42,160 --> 00:40:44,279
Speaker 1: that Derek Henry to score the first touchdown that's at

982
00:40:44,320 --> 00:40:46,279
Speaker 1: plus five point fifty. I mean, if the Titans get

983
00:40:46,280 --> 00:40:48,800
Speaker 1: the ball and they drive down, you got a pretty

984
00:40:48,800 --> 00:40:50,920
Speaker 1: good shot that Henry's gonna be able to get that in.

985
00:40:50,920 --> 00:40:52,400
Speaker 1: You're getting five and a half on your money. So

986
00:40:52,440 --> 00:40:54,080
Speaker 1: that's one just kind of for fun. But for me,

987
00:40:54,400 --> 00:40:57,560
Speaker 1: I'll take Dereck Henry at over a ridiculous one hundred

988
00:40:57,600 --> 00:40:59,560
Speaker 1: and nine and a half rushing yards at minus one

989
00:40:59,600 --> 00:41:00,280
Speaker 1: twenty one.

990
00:41:00,400 --> 00:41:02,600
Speaker 4: I'll probably wind up with a first touchdown prop for

991
00:41:02,640 --> 00:41:04,200
Speaker 4: the Super Bowl. But I can tell you that I

992
00:41:04,239 --> 00:41:06,680
Speaker 4: had Travis Etn for the first touchdown in the National

993
00:41:06,760 --> 00:41:09,680
Speaker 4: Championship Game and he got tackled at the half yard line,

994
00:41:09,760 --> 00:41:11,359
Speaker 4: and then of course Trevor Lawrence.

995
00:41:11,080 --> 00:41:13,440
Speaker 3: Ran it in. It is a little infuriated, my twenty

996
00:41:13,480 --> 00:41:13,960
Speaker 3: twenty bu.

997
00:41:14,200 --> 00:41:16,560
Speaker 1: It's infuriating when you have those bets, for sure, and

998
00:41:16,800 --> 00:41:18,960
Speaker 1: it's sort of weird where you're rooting for guys. You know,

999
00:41:19,040 --> 00:41:20,640
Speaker 1: you can root for a big play. I could have

1000
00:41:20,680 --> 00:41:22,719
Speaker 1: something on the Titans, and then if I have this

1001
00:41:22,800 --> 00:41:24,560
Speaker 1: bet and they have it past to aj Brown and

1002
00:41:24,680 --> 00:41:26,560
Speaker 1: he's streaking for the end zone, I'm rooting for him

1003
00:41:26,600 --> 00:41:28,560
Speaker 1: just to get tackled at the half yard line. That's

1004
00:41:28,560 --> 00:41:30,840
Speaker 1: how gambling goes sometimes. All right, Adam, that's going to

1005
00:41:30,920 --> 00:41:32,800
Speaker 1: do it. Thanks again for coming on. It was great

1006
00:41:32,800 --> 00:41:34,520
Speaker 1: to catch up. We haven't talked in a while. Remind

1007
00:41:34,520 --> 00:41:36,359
Speaker 1: everybody where they can find more of you and your work.

1008
00:41:36,640 --> 00:41:38,040
Speaker 3: That was definitely great to catch up. Man.

1009
00:41:38,040 --> 00:41:40,239
Speaker 4: I appreciate having me. You can find me over at

1010
00:41:40,239 --> 00:41:42,920
Speaker 4: bangabook dot com. We do a Monday through Friday podcast

1011
00:41:42,960 --> 00:41:45,680
Speaker 4: called Bang the Book Radio. Lots of good content on

1012
00:41:45,719 --> 00:41:47,759
Speaker 4: the two conference championship games here. A lot of the

1013
00:41:47,760 --> 00:41:50,279
Speaker 4: same things that Dan and I talked about here on

1014
00:41:50,280 --> 00:41:52,520
Speaker 4: today's show, but a lot of stuff going on. I'll

1015
00:41:52,520 --> 00:41:55,000
Speaker 4: have a ton of Major League Baseball content coming up.

1016
00:41:55,320 --> 00:41:57,000
Speaker 4: For those that don't know, I actually do a season

1017
00:41:57,040 --> 00:42:00,600
Speaker 4: win total MLB betting guide where I do all third teams,

1018
00:42:00,800 --> 00:42:04,560
Speaker 4: all six division futures, both AL and NL pennant futures.

1019
00:42:04,960 --> 00:42:07,480
Speaker 4: It winds up being somewhere in the neighborhood of eighty

1020
00:42:07,520 --> 00:42:10,120
Speaker 4: five to one hundred thousand words, but it's a very

1021
00:42:10,120 --> 00:42:13,400
Speaker 4: comprehensive breakdown of the upcoming Major League Baseball season, and

1022
00:42:13,560 --> 00:42:16,480
Speaker 4: probably about a month away from releasing that. So looking

1023
00:42:16,520 --> 00:42:19,480
Speaker 4: forward to the start of yet another long season of

1024
00:42:20,480 --> 00:42:21,879
Speaker 4: I'll tell you what, man, you know this as well

1025
00:42:21,880 --> 00:42:23,840
Speaker 4: as I do. Working in this business. Now, there is

1026
00:42:23,880 --> 00:42:26,800
Speaker 4: no off season in any of these markets anymore.

1027
00:42:26,560 --> 00:42:27,320
Speaker 2: One hundred percent.

1028
00:42:27,320 --> 00:42:29,479
Speaker 1: And I will say, you know, I'm not just saying

1029
00:42:29,480 --> 00:42:32,440
Speaker 1: this because I like Adam and we've had a fun podcast.

1030
00:42:32,480 --> 00:42:34,759
Speaker 2: I like when he comes on. Adam is one of the.

1031
00:42:34,680 --> 00:42:37,279
Speaker 1: Hardest working guys in this business, and he runs the

1032
00:42:37,280 --> 00:42:39,719
Speaker 1: gamut in terms of the sports that he does. He's

1033
00:42:40,040 --> 00:42:42,880
Speaker 1: really really knowledgeable everybody should be following him on Twitter

1034
00:42:42,920 --> 00:42:45,680
Speaker 1: again at Skating Tripods and he does great work, so

1035
00:42:45,840 --> 00:42:48,560
Speaker 1: definitely check him out. I certainly like reading your stuff.

1036
00:42:48,600 --> 00:42:50,520
Speaker 1: I think you really do a lot of good stuff.

1037
00:42:50,520 --> 00:42:54,520
Speaker 1: And I'm excited to get your take on the baseball

1038
00:42:54,840 --> 00:42:57,440
Speaker 1: futures because you know, I'm gonna look into it as

1039
00:42:57,440 --> 00:43:00,040
Speaker 1: well and have my own and maybe we'll have a

1040
00:43:00,040 --> 00:43:02,279
Speaker 1: little baseball podcast we can talk about that.

1041
00:43:02,560 --> 00:43:03,680
Speaker 3: Absolutely, that sounds good.

1042
00:43:03,719 --> 00:43:04,000
Speaker 2: All right.

1043
00:43:04,040 --> 00:43:05,480
Speaker 1: Before we go, I want to say thanks again to

1044
00:43:05,520 --> 00:43:07,960
Speaker 1: the sponsor of today's show, bet MGM. Remember to download

1045
00:43:08,000 --> 00:43:10,759
Speaker 1: the BETMGM Sports app, use the promo code Harris. Place

1046
00:43:10,840 --> 00:43:13,680
Speaker 1: a one dollar money line bet on any team to

1047
00:43:13,719 --> 00:43:15,719
Speaker 1: win this weekend, and you win two hundred dollars in

1048
00:43:15,760 --> 00:43:18,640
Speaker 1: free bets so long as any team scores a touchdown.

1049
00:43:18,880 --> 00:43:20,800
Speaker 1: Don't forget to leave us a review on Apple, Podcaster,

1050
00:43:20,880 --> 00:43:23,240
Speaker 1: or Stitcher. Send a screenshot of that review to contest

1051
00:43:23,239 --> 00:43:25,720
Speaker 1: at bettingpros dot com to be entered into our Michael

1052
00:43:25,760 --> 00:43:29,479
Speaker 1: Thomas signed helmet giveaway again that runs through January thirty. First,

1053
00:43:29,760 --> 00:43:31,480
Speaker 1: good luck with your wagers this weekend. We're going to

1054
00:43:31,520 --> 00:43:34,400
Speaker 1: be back on Sunday night talking about the games that

1055
00:43:34,480 --> 00:43:36,239
Speaker 1: just took place, and breaking down the Super Bowl.

1056
00:43:36,440 --> 00:44:02,720
Speaker 2: I'll talk to you then S