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Speaker 1: The Big Bets on Campus Podcast podcasts PODYA, all.

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Speaker 2: Right, here we go, fifteen Cuny twenty five, thirty thirty five,

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Speaker 2: toty tenty five fifty.

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Speaker 3: And the kick as Block Look College Sickball Stunde. Oh

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Speaker 3: my goodness, please stumble the football, the lateral turn, the

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Speaker 3: counter of the job. Don't you believe?

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Speaker 1: Tap him off the field tonight.

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Speaker 3: It's not the Sage Bay Fight.

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Speaker 1: It's the Sage of the fight in the Welcome to

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Speaker 1: the Big Bets on Campus Podcast, brought to you by

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Speaker 1: bet MGM. This is the group of five Deep Dive.

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Speaker 1: I'm your co host Mike Calberys, joined by Mike Ianello

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Speaker 1: and reminder to our audience to follow us over at

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Speaker 1: the action app. That's b B O c G five

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Speaker 1: Deep Dive. Also, we'd love some comments, some calls into

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Speaker 1: the one eight hundred Bad Beat Hotline, anything that can

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Speaker 1: rile you up. We'd love to love to hear all

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Speaker 1: about it. On Saturday. You know, we end up playing

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Speaker 1: those episodes with Stucky and Colin. They go through listen

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Speaker 1: to everything that you have to share with us. It's

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Speaker 1: one of my favorite parts of the entire Big Bets

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Speaker 1: on Campus family so make sure to call in there

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Speaker 1: and give us a little love or hate. Just want

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Speaker 1: to be relevant, So hopefully we can get back on

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Speaker 1: your radar after a middling week last week. As I

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Speaker 1: know told me off air, not for him, he was

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Speaker 1: picking a lot of winners. Some of my teams didn't

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Speaker 1: have as good of a run as I would have liked.

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Speaker 1: But in terms of a good run, let's start with

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Speaker 1: our G five heroes. It's the best way to start

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Speaker 1: the podcast. Hero I'm going to go with UTEP. That's

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Speaker 1: Minor Nation putting nine to one, five area code on

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Speaker 1: the Gavin Backley three for three on field goals, including

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Speaker 1: the game winner chip shot against FAU. Also in incredible

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Speaker 1: endings of that game. It's kind of a reminder to

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Speaker 1: our audience that the beauty of betting GFI football as

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Speaker 1: you see some of the wackiest stuff you've ever seen.

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Speaker 1: Twenty one twenty FAU scores the would be game tying touchdown.

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Speaker 1: They need the extra point, it's blocked by praise am

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Speaker 1: all away. He then loses his helmet, wisely decides not

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Speaker 1: to pick up the football, goes in the opposite direction.

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Speaker 1: His teammate picks up the football, runs all the way

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Speaker 1: back for a defensive two points, which probably should have

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Speaker 1: sealed the game, but he got on sportsman like conduct

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Speaker 1: because he lost his helmet. I wasn't exactly sure the

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Speaker 1: rules behind that, but just a wacky finish in El Paso.

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Speaker 1: Love the fact that UTEP got their fourth winning of

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Speaker 1: the season. They now kind of have an inside track

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Speaker 1: to getting to BAWL eligibility. What were your thoughts on UTAB,

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Speaker 1: a team that you double dipped on last week?

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Speaker 4: I knowello yeah, got us the two for one special,

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Speaker 4: and most importantly, we finally hit a money line underdog.

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Speaker 4: Didn't cash the parlay, but we hadn't even won a

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Speaker 4: single leg until UTEP finally comes through. Fash is for us.

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Speaker 4: If there was ever a one to win, it was

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Speaker 4: the one we doubled down on.

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Speaker 1: I felt like we were due after the UAB fiasco.

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Speaker 1: They lose their quarterback. They're just running the ball, looking

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Speaker 1: like at the very least they're going to tie the

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Speaker 1: game at the end against Western Kentucky, and for some

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Speaker 1: reason they put it in their backup quarterback's hand to

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Speaker 1: make a quick read on the sideline. He throws an interception.

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Speaker 1: They lose that game in a game when Dwyne McBride

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Speaker 1: did exactly what we predicted he would, which is, you know,

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Speaker 1: run for two hundred yards being an absolute monster, but

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Speaker 1: he's held out of the end zone. That one really stung.

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Speaker 1: Kind of set a negative tone for my weekends in

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Speaker 1: terms of bad beats. But that game in particular, Not

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Speaker 1: that this, you know, is any way to feel better

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Speaker 1: about it, but I feel like we were on the

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Speaker 1: right side of that one. But definitely you can't go

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Speaker 1: to the bank with that. All right, how about your

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Speaker 1: G five Hero of Week eight?

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Speaker 4: I'm going with Rice wide receiver Luke McCaffrey now as

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Speaker 4: half of this pick, just a way for me to

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Speaker 4: brag about hitting this over fifty seven on the pod

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Speaker 4: and somehow predicting the best game of the weekend. I mean,

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Speaker 4: this was a thrilling forty two to forty one overtime victory.

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Speaker 4: If it wasn't for me, people probably didn't watch this game.

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Speaker 4: But luckily we gave it on the pods. People had

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Speaker 4: a reason to watch. But Luke McCaffrey's He was a

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Speaker 4: former four star quarterback recruit Nebraska fans. One of my

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Speaker 4: really good friends, Kelly Keio, massive Nebraska fans. She was

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Speaker 4: pumped when they signed McCaffrey. He had offers from like Michigan,

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Speaker 4: Ohio State, Nebraska fans were very excited to have McCaffrey

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Speaker 4: as you know, their next quarterback. And he played a

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Speaker 4: little quarterback, played wide receiver a little bit in twenty nineteen,

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Speaker 4: but he was mostly quarterback twenty twenty. Even started two

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Speaker 4: games he started and beat Penn State, but he just

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Speaker 4: never caught on. He never put it together. Transferred to

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Speaker 4: Louisville for like three months, then he transferred to Rice

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Speaker 4: last year, started three games at quarterback. Same that just

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Speaker 4: could not put it together as a passer. You know,

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Speaker 4: it takes a lot of pride, like swallowing your pride,

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Speaker 4: and you know, I give him a ton of credit

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Speaker 4: for finally switching to wide receiver this spring. Well, in

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Speaker 4: this game against La Tech, he had ten catches, one

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Speaker 4: hundred and seventy one yards two touchdowns, also had thirty

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Speaker 4: one yards in a touchdown rushing. He's now top ten

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Speaker 4: in the conference in receptions, yards, touchdowns. So I give

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Speaker 4: Luke McCaffrey not only g if I Fear of the Week,

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Speaker 4: but I give him a ton of credit for you know,

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Speaker 4: being able to swallow his pride he wanted to be

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Speaker 4: a quarterback, realizing it wasn't gonna work out switching a receiver,

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Speaker 4: and he has been a very effective wide receiver this season.

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Speaker 4: So shout out Luke McCaffrey.

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Speaker 1: Going from a single player that you love to perhaps

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Speaker 1: a team that you love, I feel, you know, put

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Speaker 1: my hands on the crystal ball here. I got a

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Speaker 1: good sense that maybe we're headed to minor Nation. Picks

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Speaker 1: up here for your best bet, I hope so, because

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Speaker 1: if it ain't broke, don't fix it. Let's go ahead

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Speaker 1: and fad him against middle Senessey. Would do you agree?

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Speaker 1: Is that your best bet?

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Speaker 4: At Mitchell? Hit the music, play the song. We're talking

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Speaker 4: minor Nation out in.

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Speaker 1: The West Dixon town of l Past.

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Speaker 3: So.

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Speaker 1: Picks up.

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Speaker 4: We're taking minus one again, going back to the well

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Speaker 4: pun intended or the mind. Ever since beating Miami, who

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Speaker 4: we've now learned socks Middle tennessee'son three and I'm pretty

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Speaker 4: sure I've been against them two of those three. They've

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Speaker 4: been outscored one hundred and twenty one to sixty one.

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Speaker 4: They rank one hundred and twentieth in the country in

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Speaker 4: success right on offense. Chase Cunningham. He is who he

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Speaker 4: thought he is, and he's really bad. He's been held

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Speaker 4: under four point six yards per attempt in the last

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Speaker 4: two games. That's hard to do. The defense has been torched.

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Speaker 4: They've allowed over seven yards per play in each of

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Speaker 4: the last three weeks. UTEP, on the other hand, has

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Speaker 4: won three of its last four games. This offense is humming.

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Speaker 4: Their three highest yards per play outputs this season have

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Speaker 4: all come in the last three games we had him.

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Speaker 4: Last week, they ran for two hundred and thirty four

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Speaker 4: yards against FAU. Dean Hankins and Ronald Awatt have basically

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Speaker 4: alternated carries. Hankins had one hundred and thirty eight yards

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Speaker 4: on seventeen carries last week. And if you look at

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Speaker 4: that box sport you mentioned that UTEP had, you know,

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Speaker 4: that game winning drive they went with. They go seventy

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Speaker 4: eight yards something like that. Go look at the box score,

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Speaker 4: go look at I don't have it. I wish I

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Speaker 4: had it up in front of me. I think they

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Speaker 4: threw one pass that whole drive and they like perfectly alternated.

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Speaker 4: If you look at it, Goes Hankins carry Awat, Kerry

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Speaker 4: Hankins carry awat carry, Hankins carry, awat carry, Hankins carry

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Speaker 4: field goal. They just relied on those backs and they've

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Speaker 4: been doing that a lot more, which I love. And

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Speaker 4: in the last three weeks, Middle Tennessee has allowed ten

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Speaker 4: rushing touchdowns and two hundred and eleven yards per game

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Speaker 4: on the ground. And for the last three weeks, this

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Speaker 4: team is getting torched on the ground. And as I

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Speaker 4: mentioned last week, UTEP is three and one at home

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Speaker 4: this season. They are just a different team in the

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Speaker 4: Sun Bowl. More importantly, Devin Hardison is so much better

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Speaker 4: at home. He did throw a pick last week, but

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Speaker 4: it hit off his receiver's hands. You know, it was

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Speaker 4: intersepted off the tip, so it wasn't really hit. It

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Speaker 4: was a touchdown, but it wasn't totally his fault. He

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Speaker 4: still played better at home. I think UTEP's the better

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Speaker 4: team here, and so with them being at home there

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Speaker 4: only were they a one point favorite. So I like

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Speaker 4: YOUTEP at anything under a field goal here minor Nation.

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Speaker 4: We're going to keep riding them.

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Speaker 1: I'm going to get into that during the round robin

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Speaker 1: or a G five high five. I like q TEP

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Speaker 1: there too. We're gonna double dip again. If it ain't broke,

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Speaker 1: don't fix it. And honestly, I mean you hit on

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Speaker 1: all the points and I'll just double click into one thing.

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Speaker 1: The best element of this game in terms of you know,

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Speaker 1: ability on either side of the ball is UTEP's havoc.

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Speaker 1: They've generated a lot of havoc in the last three weeks,

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Speaker 1: eighteen tackles for lost, six turnovers. They're blocking kicks, they're

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Speaker 1: getting it done, and they're turning teams over. So I

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Speaker 1: really like them in the spot again, I was surprised

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Speaker 1: to see this under the key number of a field goal.

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Speaker 1: I would advise anybody to jump in before this number

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Speaker 1: bubbles up a little bit, because honestly, this is just

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Speaker 1: a team marching towards Bowl eligibility, where Middle Tennessee is

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Speaker 1: kind of getting close to that that quit level of

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Speaker 1: you know, their season kind of going off the rail.

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Speaker 1: So I'll touch on that a little bit more in

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Speaker 1: our G five high five section for my best bet,

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Speaker 1: I like a home favorite here of less than field

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Speaker 1: goal as well. Louisiana travel into Southern Miss, Southern Miss

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Speaker 1: laying one and this is all about the Southern Miss defense.

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Speaker 1: They're fourteenth and success rate thirty second in HAVOC. When

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Speaker 1: it comes to stopping the run, they're thirteenth in success

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Speaker 1: rate and opponents are running just three point four yards

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Speaker 1: per carry against them, which is twenty second nationally. And

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Speaker 1: then when you look at what they do to put

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Speaker 1: the ball in harm's way, they're tenth and sacrate, so

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Speaker 1: they're gooding after quarterbacks and their fifteenth in interception rate

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Speaker 1: against the Louisiana team that I think this is a

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Speaker 1: bit of fools goal. Yes, Woolridge went for five touchdowns

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Speaker 1: last week against Arkansas State. You know how I think

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Speaker 1: about Arkansas State's defense. They're just one of the worst

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Speaker 1: eleven starters in all of college football. So I don't

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Speaker 1: care the fact that Chandler Fields actually comes back this week.

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Speaker 1: He's not going to start, He's going to be available.

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Speaker 1: Does that kind of murky the waters a little bit

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Speaker 1: for them in terms of who they start or who

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Speaker 1: they play. Chris Smith Junior is back, but he really

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Speaker 1: has not been the dynamic run back of years past

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Speaker 1: where they had Trey Regas and Elijah Mitchell. He's been fine,

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Speaker 1: but he's gonna be running into a really good Southern

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Speaker 1: miss run defense, and essentially it comes down to this

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Speaker 1: kind of similar to your UTEP play from last week.

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Speaker 1: Can Zach Wilke protect the football because if he does,

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Speaker 1: I think they absolutely win a low scoring game here.

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Speaker 1: But he's got seven picks in his last three games,

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Speaker 1: and Louisiana can turn teams over through the air. So

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Speaker 1: is it the Wilkie that played well enough to upset

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Speaker 1: two Lane, which is really one of the best wins

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Speaker 1: of the entire season out of the Sun Belt, or

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Speaker 1: is he someone that's going to turn it over two

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Speaker 1: or three times and have this game kind of be

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Speaker 1: a coin flip. I think because of their versatility on offense,

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Speaker 1: they may go a little wildcat. They may lean more

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Speaker 1: heavily on Frank or Junior. I think they're gonna put

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Speaker 1: him in a position to win and win a low

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Speaker 1: scoring game. So I going to go with the home

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Speaker 1: favorite here. What's your thoughts on this Louisiana team that's

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Speaker 1: obviously taken a huge step back from where they've been

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Speaker 1: the last four years in the Sunbelt West.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, this was actually the number one picked on my

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Speaker 4: cutting room floor card. I like the here a lot too.

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Speaker 4: I don't think Louisiana's good. I think last week was

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Speaker 4: just you know, they caught a bad, bad Arkansas State

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Speaker 4: team on a good spot.

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Speaker 1: You mentioned it.

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Speaker 4: They've been they've been torched against the run. They gave up,

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Speaker 4: you know, two hundred and thirty yards and three tons

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Speaker 4: to the ul Monroe on the ground. Marshall torched them

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Speaker 4: on the ground. So I definitely think Southern Southern is

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Speaker 4: just kind of like MUCKs up games too. They just

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Speaker 4: make games gross, and I think they're gonna just rely

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Speaker 4: on the run, play defense, and I think Louisiana just

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Speaker 4: has a lot of mistakes in them that they haven't

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Speaker 4: really had in the past. So I'm on Southern miss

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Speaker 4: as well.

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Speaker 1: I like the train whistle in the background. I believe

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Speaker 1: that's the Southern Mists bandwagon leaving the station. So glad

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Speaker 1: we could get in on that.

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Speaker 5: Now.

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Speaker 1: It's not for a G five high five are a

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Speaker 1: round robin.

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Speaker 3: The G five high five should be high five high five.

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Speaker 1: I mentioned I'm on UTEP minus one half it. So

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Speaker 1: that's my first play. I'll go to my second play,

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Speaker 1: Colorado State Boise State under forty three. Talk about a

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Speaker 1: gross under. Here's the thing. Since Andy Avlos took over

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Speaker 1: in the City of Trees, that's Boise's nickname. By the way,

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Speaker 1: the under is cashed in fourteen of his nineteen games.

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Speaker 1: That's seventy four percent of the games he's coached at

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Speaker 1: Boise has gone under the closing number, and Colorado State

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Speaker 1: this year they're an underbetter's dream. The under has paid

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Speaker 1: out in all three of their mount and less games.

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Speaker 1: Boise's Holding Conference opponents are just fifteen points per game.

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Speaker 1: And as we know, we discussed the seam last week

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Speaker 1: in the game against air Force and really throughout the season,

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Speaker 1: Boise can't throw the ball worth a lick, and Colorado

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Speaker 1: State limits big plays through the air. They're ninth in

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Speaker 1: explosiveness allowed through the air this season. So what does

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Speaker 1: that mean. It means that Boisse is going to lean

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Speaker 1: on the run, running into a pretty soft Colorado State

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Speaker 1: run defense. But all I need here is just long drives.

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Speaker 1: I just need them to eat up clock. And honestly,

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Speaker 1: the key just comes back to this Boise defense. Can

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Speaker 1: they hold them under fourteen points? I think they absolutely

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Speaker 1: can because the metrics love the Boise defense. You know.

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Speaker 1: The only thing that they give up a little bit

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Speaker 1: is explosive place through the air. They've given up one

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Speaker 1: deep bomb forty yards or more in almost every game

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Speaker 1: this year, which ranks them sixty eighth nationally. But if

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Speaker 1: they can tighten that up just a little bit, I

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Speaker 1: just do not see the Rams stringing together eight ten,

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Speaker 1: nine plays scoring drives against this Boise team. It's gonna

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Speaker 1: be cold, it's going to be you know, clear weather conditions.

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Speaker 1: I don't think you have any concerns about fumbles or

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Speaker 1: you know, rain or anything like that. So I'm gonna

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Speaker 1: go under forty three here. I think this is a

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Speaker 1: game that's like twenty four six, twenty four to seven

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Speaker 1: Boise really boring. And really this is a Boise team

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Speaker 1: that knows exactly how they want to win games. They

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Speaker 1: did it last week thirty three points scored in total

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Speaker 1: against air Force. I think it's more of the same here.

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Speaker 1: So I'm gonna go ahead and ride this Andy Avlos

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Speaker 1: under train. What are your thoughts?

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Speaker 4: Well, I'm gonna go right into my pick. I was

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Speaker 4: going to take a different game first, but I'm gonna

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Speaker 4: switch and go out of order because you were just

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Speaker 4: teaming right up. Let's take another gross under give me

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Speaker 4: Nevada San Jose State under forty four and a half.

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Speaker 4: The reasoning for this is pretty simple. Nevada's offense is

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Speaker 4: horrific and San Jose State State's defense is awesome. I

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Speaker 4: could just end right there, but Nevada is averaging four

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Speaker 4: point two yards for play. That's one hundred and twenty

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Speaker 4: eighth in the country. They're bottom fifteen in the league

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Speaker 4: and passing rushing. Obviously, Carson Strong moved on, Romeo Dobbs

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Speaker 4: is gone, Jayne Novelle went to Colorado State, who you

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Speaker 4: just mentioned, took the rest of the offense with him.

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Speaker 4: They now suck to Nate Cox took over as quarterback.

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Speaker 4: He has somehow managed to throw just two touchdown passes

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Speaker 4: all season. That's hard to do in college football. He

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Speaker 4: got pulled last week for Stane Ellingworth, the Oklahoma State transfer,

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Speaker 4: but he's been just as bad. I was looking on

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Speaker 4: Twitter like Nevada fans were pissed that Cox got benched

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Speaker 4: and he's horrible, So what does that say about Ellingworth.

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Speaker 4: Nevada hasn't scored more than twenty points in five straight weeks.

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Speaker 4: They managed just fourteen against Colorado State sixteen against Hawaii.

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Speaker 4: Both those teams are horrible. They only managed three hundred

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Speaker 4: yards total yards of offense twice this year.

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Speaker 1: That's it.

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Speaker 4: Well, San Jose State defense has been awesome. They're twentieth

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Speaker 4: in success rate, they're thirty fifth at preventing explosivemith twelve

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Speaker 4: at finishing drives, and they've been especially good against the run,

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Speaker 4: which is the only way Nevada has scored all season

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Speaker 4: Nevada has. San Jose State has allowed just one rushing

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Speaker 4: score in the last four weeks. On the other side

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Speaker 4: of the ball, we know if you've listened all season

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Speaker 4: and I still don't trust Chevron Cordero. I don't think

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Speaker 4: he's good, and I don't trust the San Jose State offense.

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Speaker 4: They have the sixth highest passer rate in the country.

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Speaker 4: They throw the ball constantly. Cordero is averaging thirty four

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Speaker 4: and a half pass attempts per game, yet he's only

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Speaker 4: thrown seven touchdown passes. He's completing fifty six percent of

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Speaker 4: his passes. He continues to be wildly inaccurate, which was

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Speaker 4: his issue at Hawaii. He just cannot complete a pass

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Speaker 4: more than seven yards down the field, and this team's

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Speaker 4: just eighty ninth in success rate passing the ball. They're

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Speaker 4: seventy fifth overall. Well, the one nice thing you can

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Speaker 4: say about Nevada is very surprising that I was like,

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Speaker 4: I've looked this up three different times because I'm still

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Speaker 4: not convinced its true. So if someone else looks it

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Speaker 4: up and I'm wrong, that's not on me. I've looked

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Speaker 4: up three different times. The Vada's defense is twenty fifth

338
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Speaker 4: in the country in defending the bass. I good for them,

339
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Speaker 4: and that's all San Jose State does is past the ball,

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Speaker 4: and I don't like Cordero, So if that's the one

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Speaker 4: strength of them, I think there's a chance Nevada doesn't

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Speaker 4: score here, and if they do, it'll likely be ten

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Speaker 4: at the most. So we just need to hope that

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Speaker 4: San Jose State doesn't score thirty five points. And this

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Speaker 4: undershit cash.

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Speaker 1: I had to get out my little Geiger Counter, my

347
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Speaker 1: little Ghostbusters whatever the spirit the ghost Finder kind of

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Speaker 1: thing with the spiking on it. Because this is a

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Speaker 1: quick factor game one to ten. Where is Nevada on

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Speaker 1: their quick factor? I would argue probably eight and a

351
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Speaker 1: half nine. They'd have to win out just to get

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Speaker 1: to six and six, and they're running into the worst

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Speaker 1: team possible really in terms of a matchup. Maybe in

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Speaker 1: the entire Mountain West in this particular game, so I

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Speaker 1: think another slow start for them. I think it's very

356
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Speaker 1: easy to see them pack it up offensively. They're you know,

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Speaker 1: shuffling between two quarterbacks. It just doesn't seem like they're

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Speaker 1: good for double digits in this game. So I really

359
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Speaker 1: like that. Speaking of quid factor, what do we think

360
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Speaker 1: about Georgia State. It's time for them to pack it

361
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Speaker 1: in this season because Old Dominion's catching four on the road,

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Speaker 1: and really this is just like an eye of the

363
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Speaker 1: beholder situation. The good Monarchs beat Virginia Tech and Coastal Carolina.

364
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Speaker 1: They crushed Coastal Carolina. The Bad Monarchs lost at home

365
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Speaker 1: to Georgia Southern and needed a huge second half comeback

366
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Speaker 1: to beat Arkansas State. So which team are we getting here?

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Speaker 1: I'll put that on the shelf for a second. Georgia

368
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Speaker 1: State hasn't been lights out at home. They lost by

369
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Speaker 1: seventeen to Coastal, they lost outright to Charlotte and Club

370
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Speaker 1: Litt is now shut down, boarded up, and they just

371
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Speaker 1: got blown up by app State by twenty five points.

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Speaker 1: So I think they're in the same conversation as Nevada

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Speaker 1: in terms of the QUI factor. I think they're an

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Speaker 1: eight or nine out of ten. Here on the other side,

375
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Speaker 1: I'll go back to Old Dominion. I already liked their offense.

376
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Speaker 1: You talk me into the wolf Pack, you know, throughout

377
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Speaker 1: this season and what they've been able to do with

378
00:18:07,400 --> 00:18:09,400
Speaker 1: Ali Jennings and the perimeter's been great. But it's really

379
00:18:09,480 --> 00:18:12,440
Speaker 1: about Blake Watson since he's really taken off in the

380
00:18:12,520 --> 00:18:15,040
Speaker 1: last three games four hundred and forty seven rushing yards

381
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Speaker 1: across his last three with five total touchdowns. He gives

382
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Speaker 1: them the perfect balance to have the best unit on

383
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Speaker 1: the field, which is their offense in this game, and

384
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Speaker 1: also the opposite of a quip factor. This is a

385
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Speaker 1: must win for Old Dominion because if their drive for

386
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Speaker 1: Bowl eligibility to get to six wins, they got to

387
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Speaker 1: have this one. Because they got Marshall James Madison app

388
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Speaker 1: State at South Alabama on deck. They can't really be

389
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Speaker 1: asking for more than two wins in that group, so

390
00:18:38,640 --> 00:18:41,560
Speaker 1: they got to win this game. You know, I'm probably

391
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Speaker 1: gonna sprinkle in the money line as well. The fact

392
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Speaker 1: that they're catching four over that key, you know, number

393
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Speaker 1: of a field goal. I think that's a gift. I'm

394
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Speaker 1: going to go odu here. I know that they couldn't

395
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Speaker 1: get it done in their last game, but I think

396
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Speaker 1: that changes against the Georgia State team that's just been

397
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Speaker 1: too jack on High throughout the whole season and have

398
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Speaker 1: just not been all that intimidating at home. So what

399
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Speaker 1: are your thoughts on the Panthers and the was a

400
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Speaker 1: team that we were more bullsh on in in August

401
00:19:04,160 --> 00:19:05,840
Speaker 1: but honestly hasn't materialized.

402
00:19:06,359 --> 00:19:10,119
Speaker 4: I strongly thought about it, but I I'm very aware

403
00:19:10,160 --> 00:19:12,320
Speaker 4: and honest about my biases, and I was like, I'm

404
00:19:12,320 --> 00:19:13,879
Speaker 4: starting to get worried. I'm like, am I just do?

405
00:19:13,920 --> 00:19:15,919
Speaker 4: I just like Little Dominion every week because I just

406
00:19:15,960 --> 00:19:18,320
Speaker 4: love them and they've come through for me or they

407
00:19:18,400 --> 00:19:21,120
Speaker 4: actually good and same thing on those high Georgia stand

408
00:19:21,119 --> 00:19:24,240
Speaker 4: has been so disappointing. Again, they were probably my favorite

409
00:19:24,320 --> 00:19:26,960
Speaker 4: win total coming into the year. They're over and it's

410
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Speaker 4: just been a just a terrible, terrible season for them.

411
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Speaker 4: So I like it, I I gues said, I thought

412
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Speaker 4: about it. I just ended up backing off. But you know,

413
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Speaker 4: I never turned down an opportunity to ride with the.

414
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Speaker 1: Wolf back wolf in the shotgun. These cottoms asking you

415
00:19:43,280 --> 00:19:48,040
Speaker 1: shall receive my friends from Hayden. Wolf Bang.

416
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Speaker 4: The wolf Bang.

417
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Speaker 1: All right, so we got one more. I believe it's

418
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Speaker 1: close out that G five five five and we yeah.

419
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Speaker 4: And I have a feeling this is this is teeing

420
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Speaker 4: up because you started even before we start recording, Caliber

421
00:20:01,520 --> 00:20:06,800
Speaker 4: started venting about something more specifically someone and he doesn't know.

422
00:20:06,880 --> 00:20:09,280
Speaker 4: We don't talk about our Pickstram, But I said, no, no, no,

423
00:20:09,440 --> 00:20:11,520
Speaker 4: you say it. I'll give you an opportunity to talk

424
00:20:11,560 --> 00:20:14,680
Speaker 4: this up. My last bet, I'm going with probably the best, no,

425
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Speaker 4: definitely the best game in the G five this week,

426
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Speaker 4: I'm taking UCF plus one. I kind of hint that

427
00:20:21,040 --> 00:20:22,760
Speaker 4: I was going to do this last week. I'm putting

428
00:20:22,800 --> 00:20:25,400
Speaker 4: my money where my mouth is. I think the Knights

429
00:20:25,440 --> 00:20:27,400
Speaker 4: are the best team in this conference. I still think

430
00:20:27,440 --> 00:20:30,920
Speaker 4: they beat Cincinnati. Even after that tough, tough loss against

431
00:20:30,960 --> 00:20:34,320
Speaker 4: East Carolina. It was just a bad showing week before.

432
00:20:34,400 --> 00:20:37,240
Speaker 4: I think it was clearly a look ahead spot. Also,

433
00:20:37,480 --> 00:20:40,560
Speaker 4: that was just vintage gusmels On. That's what the Gus

434
00:20:40,640 --> 00:20:43,119
Speaker 4: Buss does. He loses to crap teams and then he

435
00:20:43,160 --> 00:20:46,960
Speaker 4: beats Alabama. Well, this is the G five. Alabama, Cincinnati,

436
00:20:48,080 --> 00:20:50,800
Speaker 4: They're just not the team that they were last year.

437
00:20:50,840 --> 00:20:54,080
Speaker 4: They're just not a group of five team. You can't

438
00:20:54,080 --> 00:20:56,720
Speaker 4: have nine players drafted to the NFL and not missed

439
00:20:56,760 --> 00:20:59,600
Speaker 4: the beat. It's just not possible in the group of five. Now,

440
00:20:59,680 --> 00:21:03,760
Speaker 4: before say anything bad about Cincinnati, I do want to

441
00:21:03,800 --> 00:21:09,440
Speaker 4: say Ivan Pace Junior is awesome. He transferred from Miami Ohio.

442
00:21:09,520 --> 00:21:11,800
Speaker 4: He led the Mac and tackles last year.

443
00:21:12,240 --> 00:21:13,960
Speaker 1: This dude is a monster.

444
00:21:14,400 --> 00:21:17,280
Speaker 4: He's averaging more than ten tackles per game. He is

445
00:21:17,440 --> 00:21:20,960
Speaker 4: fifteen and a half tackles for loss this season eight sacks,

446
00:21:21,359 --> 00:21:24,399
Speaker 4: both lead the country. He's probably he might be a

447
00:21:24,400 --> 00:21:25,879
Speaker 4: first round pick when I all say and done, and

448
00:21:25,920 --> 00:21:28,359
Speaker 4: this dude is so good, so I do want to

449
00:21:28,359 --> 00:21:31,520
Speaker 4: say shout out to him. That being said, they just

450
00:21:31,560 --> 00:21:35,040
Speaker 4: they have not replaced Sauce Gardner and Kobe Bryant. They're

451
00:21:35,080 --> 00:21:38,720
Speaker 4: just eightieth and coverage this year. They're just barely above

452
00:21:38,760 --> 00:21:42,679
Speaker 4: Nebraska in coverage ranking. The Bearcats give up. They give

453
00:21:42,760 --> 00:21:46,320
Speaker 4: up a ton of explosive plays in the passing game. Sure,

454
00:21:46,359 --> 00:21:48,919
Speaker 4: they've won six straight games after losing to Arkansas in

455
00:21:48,960 --> 00:21:52,800
Speaker 4: the opener, but they beat Tulsa by ten. They beat

456
00:21:52,880 --> 00:21:58,280
Speaker 4: South Florida by four, They beat SMU's backup quarterback by two, Like,

457
00:21:58,720 --> 00:22:01,760
Speaker 4: are we really that impressed with them? They've really struggled

458
00:22:01,760 --> 00:22:04,040
Speaker 4: to run the ball. Corey Kiner has been hurt. Ben

459
00:22:04,080 --> 00:22:06,920
Speaker 4: Bryant's throwing over thirty times per game. I doubt that's

460
00:22:06,920 --> 00:22:10,760
Speaker 4: what Luke Fickle wants. UCF is eleventh in the country

461
00:22:10,800 --> 00:22:13,160
Speaker 4: against the run, so they should continue to shut down

462
00:22:13,440 --> 00:22:16,240
Speaker 4: the Cincinnati running game, and they're gonna have to just

463
00:22:16,280 --> 00:22:18,800
Speaker 4: make them one dimensional. And while I do think Cincinnati

464
00:22:18,880 --> 00:22:20,560
Speaker 4: will be able to move the ball passing, because that

465
00:22:20,600 --> 00:22:24,000
Speaker 4: has been the weakness against UCF, the Knights have the

466
00:22:24,040 --> 00:22:26,800
Speaker 4: best red zone defense in the country. So even if

467
00:22:26,840 --> 00:22:28,919
Speaker 4: since he can kind of dink and dunk down the field,

468
00:22:29,240 --> 00:22:30,960
Speaker 4: when you see f Titans up in that red zone,

469
00:22:31,280 --> 00:22:34,600
Speaker 4: you just can't score. And this Knight's offense is eighteenth

470
00:22:34,640 --> 00:22:37,160
Speaker 4: in the country in success right, they're fifteenth in rushing,

471
00:22:37,200 --> 00:22:39,760
Speaker 4: twenty fifth and passing. They've done everything well. John Rays

472
00:22:39,800 --> 00:22:42,840
Speaker 4: Pumley's averaging three hundred and twenty eight yards passing over

473
00:22:42,880 --> 00:22:44,919
Speaker 4: the last three games. He's really gotten that side of

474
00:22:44,920 --> 00:22:49,520
Speaker 4: his game going. He's still their leading rusher, but Isaiah Bowser, R. J. Harvey,

475
00:22:49,560 --> 00:22:52,239
Speaker 4: Johnny Richardson They've all been great. They're super balanced. They

476
00:22:52,240 --> 00:22:55,919
Speaker 4: have three really good receivers Javon Baker, Ryan O'keefan, Kobe Hudson.

477
00:22:56,400 --> 00:22:58,520
Speaker 4: They just they have more weapons at this point, I think,

478
00:22:58,520 --> 00:23:01,280
Speaker 4: than Cincinnati does. And this is one of those you

479
00:23:01,320 --> 00:23:04,399
Speaker 4: know it, what's the saying that immovable force against the

480
00:23:04,440 --> 00:23:11,919
Speaker 4: unstopped whatever. Cincinnati has won seventeen straight conference games, but

481
00:23:12,800 --> 00:23:15,919
Speaker 4: if you take out that weird COVID season twenty twenty,

482
00:23:17,160 --> 00:23:21,200
Speaker 4: UCF has won eighteen conference games at home in a row,

483
00:23:21,359 --> 00:23:24,760
Speaker 4: not including twenty twenty. So something's got to give here.

484
00:23:24,880 --> 00:23:28,080
Speaker 4: Cincinnati is just one and two at the Bounce House

485
00:23:28,800 --> 00:23:32,159
Speaker 4: and they won. Their win was by three points in

486
00:23:32,200 --> 00:23:36,160
Speaker 4: that twenty twenty season with just ten six hundred people

487
00:23:36,160 --> 00:23:39,879
Speaker 4: in attendance, that's twenty four percent of capacity, and the

488
00:23:39,920 --> 00:23:42,600
Speaker 4: two normal seasons, UCF outscored them at home by a

489
00:23:42,640 --> 00:23:46,280
Speaker 4: combined score of sixty two to sixteen. This is the

490
00:23:46,280 --> 00:23:50,560
Speaker 4: Bounce House, baby, It is going to be jumpin' and

491
00:23:50,600 --> 00:23:53,520
Speaker 4: you Sef's gonna get the win. I love on your ramp.

492
00:23:54,440 --> 00:23:58,080
Speaker 1: I love the deep dive of the stadium capacity. I

493
00:23:58,119 --> 00:23:59,679
Speaker 1: thought you're gonna hit me with like there was no

494
00:23:59,760 --> 00:24:02,080
Speaker 1: knock cheese at the concession stand. I mean that's what

495
00:24:02,200 --> 00:24:03,280
Speaker 1: fuels the bounce house.

496
00:24:03,400 --> 00:24:04,439
Speaker 4: Yes everyone knows this.

497
00:24:05,680 --> 00:24:09,960
Speaker 1: Uh yeah. I I hate Luke Fickel. I just hate

498
00:24:10,000 --> 00:24:13,119
Speaker 1: the guys guts, you know, they finally break through the

499
00:24:13,119 --> 00:24:16,200
Speaker 1: glass ceiling. A G five team makes the playoff last year,

500
00:24:16,400 --> 00:24:19,280
Speaker 1: he has an all timer G five defense that actually

501
00:24:19,359 --> 00:24:21,880
Speaker 1: keeps him in the game, and he calls the most conservative,

502
00:24:22,920 --> 00:24:27,040
Speaker 1: sad sack game plan I've ever seen, like take your shots,

503
00:24:27,119 --> 00:24:30,159
Speaker 1: like on the opposite of the spectrum. It's the you know,

504
00:24:30,760 --> 00:24:33,840
Speaker 1: coach Pete situation with Boise in two thousand and six

505
00:24:34,119 --> 00:24:37,160
Speaker 1: against Oklahoma, where it's like, we're here, we might as well,

506
00:24:37,359 --> 00:24:39,119
Speaker 1: you know, pull out every trick that we have to

507
00:24:39,119 --> 00:24:41,800
Speaker 1: try to win the football game. Cincinnati's like, oh, it's fine,

508
00:24:41,800 --> 00:24:44,280
Speaker 1: if we just lose by two touchdowns, that's cool. Then

509
00:24:44,320 --> 00:24:48,400
Speaker 1: you have this game against SMU where no matter how

510
00:24:48,400 --> 00:24:50,359
Speaker 1: it plays out, he always finds a way to screw

511
00:24:50,400 --> 00:24:53,199
Speaker 1: me over. He all of a sudden decides to be

512
00:24:53,240 --> 00:24:55,119
Speaker 1: aggressive late in the game, goes for it on a

513
00:24:55,160 --> 00:24:58,359
Speaker 1: fourth and one at his own forty, gives a huge,

514
00:24:58,440 --> 00:24:59,959
Speaker 1: you know, shot in the arm to SMU, who turn

515
00:25:00,240 --> 00:25:03,560
Speaker 1: around and just runs it down their throat and scores

516
00:25:03,600 --> 00:25:05,879
Speaker 1: the last two touchdowns of the game to have a

517
00:25:05,920 --> 00:25:08,439
Speaker 1: backdoor cover. The only thing that you know saved me

518
00:25:08,480 --> 00:25:12,960
Speaker 1: because I was absolutely fuming in that game was Levine.

519
00:25:13,000 --> 00:25:15,720
Speaker 1: The running back for SMU. Looks like a dead ringer

520
00:25:15,760 --> 00:25:19,200
Speaker 1: for Tim Riggins out of Friday Night Lights. He's got

521
00:25:19,320 --> 00:25:23,280
Speaker 1: like the little restrictor, you know, bull ring thing, just

522
00:25:23,480 --> 00:25:26,679
Speaker 1: absolutely powering through linebackers again in the end zone. So

523
00:25:26,800 --> 00:25:29,040
Speaker 1: that did make me smile a little bit. But Luke

524
00:25:29,080 --> 00:25:32,320
Speaker 1: Fickle is very close to getting sent to podcast prison

525
00:25:32,359 --> 00:25:34,359
Speaker 1: for me because no matter how I seem to play

526
00:25:34,400 --> 00:25:37,199
Speaker 1: the Cincinnati team, they just mess around and you know,

527
00:25:37,240 --> 00:25:40,000
Speaker 1: fail to cover numbers in AAC play. And I agree

528
00:25:40,000 --> 00:25:42,520
Speaker 1: with just about everything you said on the UCF side,

529
00:25:42,520 --> 00:25:46,880
Speaker 1: where if they come to play and John Rice Plumbley

530
00:25:46,920 --> 00:25:48,920
Speaker 1: gets a hot start in this game, I could see

531
00:25:48,960 --> 00:25:52,439
Speaker 1: them putting up a big numbers and potentially boat racing Cincinnati.

532
00:25:52,760 --> 00:25:54,840
Speaker 1: But this is Gus Malzon, so I think it's going

533
00:25:54,920 --> 00:25:57,040
Speaker 1: to be a binary situation. Either that or they're going

534
00:25:57,080 --> 00:25:59,000
Speaker 1: to come out flat and just not have the game

535
00:25:59,000 --> 00:26:01,240
Speaker 1: plan to be able to pick a part this Cincinnati defense.

536
00:26:01,720 --> 00:26:04,399
Speaker 1: If I choose, I'm on your side with UCF. I

537
00:26:04,400 --> 00:26:05,960
Speaker 1: think the Bounce House is going to be a zoo.

538
00:26:05,960 --> 00:26:08,040
Speaker 4: That's why I almost feel better that they came out

539
00:26:08,080 --> 00:26:11,440
Speaker 4: flat last week. It's almost like the Great Ditch Dust

540
00:26:11,560 --> 00:26:14,679
Speaker 4: letdown spot where he just like messed around with craft teams.

541
00:26:14,680 --> 00:26:16,800
Speaker 4: I'm not that crap team because as we're talking about,

542
00:26:17,000 --> 00:26:20,280
Speaker 4: but like them coming out of flat last week almost

543
00:26:20,320 --> 00:26:22,480
Speaker 4: gives me more confidence, if that makes any sense.

544
00:26:23,240 --> 00:26:26,520
Speaker 1: All right, let's jump in to our Week nine underdog

545
00:26:26,800 --> 00:26:28,960
Speaker 1: money line parlay and.

546
00:26:29,720 --> 00:26:30,639
Speaker 4: Don't get hot.

547
00:26:31,119 --> 00:26:33,879
Speaker 1: Yeah, don't let us get hot. Last week I tried

548
00:26:34,000 --> 00:26:36,600
Speaker 1: on you know your shoes walked a mile and your

549
00:26:36,640 --> 00:26:39,920
Speaker 1: shoes went with a small underdog, and uab broke my heart.

550
00:26:40,119 --> 00:26:42,439
Speaker 1: So I'm gonna go back to doing me. You know,

551
00:26:42,480 --> 00:26:44,400
Speaker 1: if I'm gonna go out, if I'm gonna go winless

552
00:26:44,520 --> 00:26:46,840
Speaker 1: on this entire season on money line underdogs, I'm gonna

553
00:26:46,880 --> 00:26:49,120
Speaker 1: do it my way. Frank snaunt your style. I'm going

554
00:26:49,200 --> 00:26:53,480
Speaker 1: Acron money line Miami of Ohio plus two seventy. Who

555
00:26:53,640 --> 00:26:57,520
Speaker 1: cares how bad Akron was in September in Mac play,

556
00:26:57,640 --> 00:27:00,600
Speaker 1: here we go. There's six and scoring offense is twelfth

557
00:27:00,880 --> 00:27:04,040
Speaker 1: their fifth and total offense Miami's eleventh. This is the

558
00:27:04,119 --> 00:27:06,360
Speaker 1: number one passing offense in the MAC and Conference play.

559
00:27:06,840 --> 00:27:09,800
Speaker 1: DJ Irons is absolutely the right man to be running

560
00:27:09,840 --> 00:27:12,920
Speaker 1: this offense. Six total touchdowns, just three turnovers and MacPlay,

561
00:27:13,400 --> 00:27:16,240
Speaker 1: and their defense has been halfway decent. I would say,

562
00:27:16,320 --> 00:27:19,520
Speaker 1: like regular bad in terms of MAC play. They've kept

563
00:27:19,560 --> 00:27:21,760
Speaker 1: them around to be able to flirt with an upset

564
00:27:21,760 --> 00:27:24,359
Speaker 1: of Kent State. They absolutely were able to rein in

565
00:27:24,440 --> 00:27:27,480
Speaker 1: a central Michigan offense, and Miami can only do it

566
00:27:27,520 --> 00:27:30,000
Speaker 1: on the ground. They cannot throw the football, so sure

567
00:27:30,080 --> 00:27:32,360
Speaker 1: they're gonna absolutely eat on the ground in this game.

568
00:27:32,440 --> 00:27:35,200
Speaker 1: The Akron on defense is awful, but I will pepper

569
00:27:35,280 --> 00:27:37,760
Speaker 1: in one fact, Akron's given up a lot of yards

570
00:27:37,800 --> 00:27:40,000
Speaker 1: this year, but not to quarterbacks running the football. Avion

571
00:27:40,080 --> 00:27:43,360
Speaker 1: Smith is critical in terms of the RedHawks game play,

572
00:27:43,359 --> 00:27:45,399
Speaker 1: and he needs to go for you know, triple digits

573
00:27:45,440 --> 00:27:48,080
Speaker 1: on the ground running the football. I think he'll probably

574
00:27:48,119 --> 00:27:51,320
Speaker 1: have a big day. But this Akron offense gives me

575
00:27:51,400 --> 00:27:54,040
Speaker 1: a shot and I'm going to go with them here. MacPlay,

576
00:27:54,200 --> 00:27:58,879
Speaker 1: I think officially with last week's Toledo meltdown, given up

577
00:27:58,880 --> 00:28:01,240
Speaker 1: twenty four points in the fourth order to Buffalo, I

578
00:28:01,359 --> 00:28:05,000
Speaker 1: think we are truly getting ready for crazy maction and

579
00:28:05,200 --> 00:28:07,560
Speaker 1: what would be crazier than acreage in their first win

580
00:28:07,840 --> 00:28:10,000
Speaker 1: of the season in MAC play over a Miami team

581
00:28:10,040 --> 00:28:12,280
Speaker 1: that I think is just fine. I don't think their

582
00:28:12,320 --> 00:28:14,520
Speaker 1: defense is special. You talked about Ivan Pace. They lost

583
00:28:14,560 --> 00:28:17,640
Speaker 1: another linebacker in the transfer portal in the offseason as well.

584
00:28:17,880 --> 00:28:19,960
Speaker 1: I think Akron could score thirty eight points in this game.

585
00:28:20,160 --> 00:28:22,520
Speaker 1: Can their defense give up thirty seven? We're about to

586
00:28:22,560 --> 00:28:24,080
Speaker 1: find out. So I'm gonna go with the Ziffs on

587
00:28:24,119 --> 00:28:25,760
Speaker 1: the money line. What are you pairing up here in

588
00:28:25,840 --> 00:28:26,240
Speaker 1: Week nine?

589
00:28:26,760 --> 00:28:28,320
Speaker 4: Well, first, I just want to say, I think you're

590
00:28:28,400 --> 00:28:30,720
Speaker 4: just so you know, in love with this Achron offense

591
00:28:30,760 --> 00:28:34,280
Speaker 4: after watching them torch they outscored Kent State last or

592
00:28:34,359 --> 00:28:37,440
Speaker 4: outgained Kent State last week, despite the loss. I do

593
00:28:37,560 --> 00:28:39,240
Speaker 4: want to say one thing that Ntey nervous about this.

594
00:28:40,080 --> 00:28:43,600
Speaker 4: You mentioned ady On Smith. You do know Brett Gabbert

595
00:28:43,680 --> 00:28:46,120
Speaker 4: like came back from the clouds and played last week,

596
00:28:46,200 --> 00:28:48,160
Speaker 4: which was stunny. I thought he was out for the

597
00:28:48,200 --> 00:28:50,200
Speaker 4: season and then all of a sudden, you just like played.

598
00:28:51,200 --> 00:28:55,280
Speaker 1: I still believe they're gonna use both, at least according

599
00:28:55,320 --> 00:28:58,080
Speaker 1: to you know, kind of the game script. So if

600
00:28:58,120 --> 00:29:01,720
Speaker 1: they do, I think it's like, honestly, gun to my head,

601
00:29:01,720 --> 00:29:03,760
Speaker 1: I would prefer Gabbert in this game, coming in a

602
00:29:03,800 --> 00:29:06,440
Speaker 1: little bit rusty as opposed to Avion Smith, who could

603
00:29:06,520 --> 00:29:09,240
Speaker 1: carve up a bad run defense. Either way, this is

604
00:29:09,280 --> 00:29:11,920
Speaker 1: a play on the Zips offense. I hope that they

605
00:29:11,960 --> 00:29:14,479
Speaker 1: can score north of thirty five points, and it's from

606
00:29:14,520 --> 00:29:17,560
Speaker 1: a tempo perspective and quarterback quality perspective, I think that

607
00:29:17,600 --> 00:29:17,880
Speaker 1: they can.

608
00:29:18,280 --> 00:29:19,920
Speaker 4: I would feel much better about that play if it

609
00:29:20,000 --> 00:29:22,239
Speaker 4: was on a Tuesday. As much as that doesn't make

610
00:29:22,240 --> 00:29:24,480
Speaker 4: any sense, it makes perfect sense if you watch back football.

611
00:29:24,960 --> 00:29:29,400
Speaker 4: I'm taking East Carolina plus one thirty five at BYU

612
00:29:29,680 --> 00:29:32,200
Speaker 4: on Friday night. Look, we know this is a whole

613
00:29:32,200 --> 00:29:35,080
Speaker 4: Innalers podcast. This has been a whole Innalor's podcast for

614
00:29:35,200 --> 00:29:38,360
Speaker 4: the seven years that he's been at ECU. He leads

615
00:29:38,400 --> 00:29:40,920
Speaker 4: the American with three hundred and four yards per game

616
00:29:41,400 --> 00:29:45,280
Speaker 4: and with eighteen touchdown passes. He has just five interceptions,

617
00:29:45,640 --> 00:29:48,520
Speaker 4: and he is the lowest turnover worthy play rate of

618
00:29:48,640 --> 00:29:51,960
Speaker 4: his career. And anyone who's watched Whatton Aalors knows that

619
00:29:52,120 --> 00:29:54,080
Speaker 4: has been the issue for the last four years.

620
00:29:55,040 --> 00:29:57,080
Speaker 6: That's called to be the best part I've ever seen,

621
00:29:58,760 --> 00:29:59,920
Speaker 6: so it would see.

622
00:30:02,480 --> 00:30:04,600
Speaker 4: He just threw for over three hundred yards against a

623
00:30:04,640 --> 00:30:07,760
Speaker 4: good UCF defense in a blowout win, which we talked about.

624
00:30:08,120 --> 00:30:11,360
Speaker 4: He has two really big receivers. And while EASCU did

625
00:30:11,480 --> 00:30:14,600
Speaker 4: lose Raj Harris for the season, which sucks, he's awesome.

626
00:30:15,160 --> 00:30:17,040
Speaker 4: They do still have Keatan Mitchell. They've had that two

627
00:30:17,080 --> 00:30:19,680
Speaker 4: headed monster for you know, the last three years now,

628
00:30:19,800 --> 00:30:22,600
Speaker 4: and Mitchell's a stud. He has two hundred and fifty

629
00:30:22,640 --> 00:30:25,120
Speaker 4: four yards and five touchdowns in the last two games

630
00:30:25,160 --> 00:30:28,400
Speaker 4: since Harris went down. And this BYEU defense is broken.

631
00:30:28,600 --> 00:30:30,800
Speaker 4: I don't know what happened. They like looked really good

632
00:30:30,880 --> 00:30:33,720
Speaker 4: the first like two three weeks. They gave up five

633
00:30:33,840 --> 00:30:36,960
Speaker 4: hundred yards and six point eight yards per play against

634
00:30:37,080 --> 00:30:41,640
Speaker 4: Notre Dame, who like stinks. They allowed six hundred and

635
00:30:41,720 --> 00:30:44,560
Speaker 4: forty four yards seven point nine per play to Arkansas.

636
00:30:45,040 --> 00:30:47,680
Speaker 4: They allowed five hundred and forty seven yards seven point

637
00:30:47,720 --> 00:30:50,640
Speaker 4: one per play to Liberty and their third string. Liberty

638
00:30:50,640 --> 00:30:54,000
Speaker 4: scored forty one points on them with their third string quarterback.

639
00:30:54,760 --> 00:30:57,560
Speaker 4: Their BAUS one hundred and eighth in points per game.

640
00:30:57,600 --> 00:30:59,800
Speaker 4: They've allowed thirty one points per game, one hundred and

641
00:30:59,840 --> 00:31:02,400
Speaker 4: three aready at that preventing finishing drives. They can't stop

642
00:31:02,440 --> 00:31:05,080
Speaker 4: the pass, they can't stop the run. Their secondary is

643
00:31:05,120 --> 00:31:08,200
Speaker 4: just an absolute mess. They get no pressure. And we

644
00:31:08,280 --> 00:31:10,160
Speaker 4: talked about this, you know, the CCU offense. I feel

645
00:31:10,160 --> 00:31:11,640
Speaker 4: like it has always been good. They've been good for

646
00:31:11,840 --> 00:31:15,000
Speaker 4: since reasons Alers has been there, but their defense has

647
00:31:15,040 --> 00:31:17,560
Speaker 4: taken a really, really big stat last season. That was honestly,

648
00:31:17,560 --> 00:31:20,840
Speaker 4: my biggest takeaway against NC State in that first game

649
00:31:21,360 --> 00:31:23,880
Speaker 4: was how much they took away NC State's ability to

650
00:31:23,960 --> 00:31:26,560
Speaker 4: run the ball, how many times they stuffed nc State

651
00:31:26,600 --> 00:31:29,200
Speaker 4: at the goal line. They've been awesome against the runoff season,

652
00:31:29,720 --> 00:31:32,760
Speaker 4: and they should make BYU one dimensional, especially since BYU

653
00:31:32,880 --> 00:31:34,840
Speaker 4: will be without running back Chris Brooks, which is a

654
00:31:35,080 --> 00:31:38,120
Speaker 4: huge loss for them because Jared Hall just doesn't look right.

655
00:31:38,200 --> 00:31:40,240
Speaker 4: I know, stuck you mentioned thinking he might be hurt.

656
00:31:40,760 --> 00:31:43,520
Speaker 4: He completed just forty five percent of his passes against Liberty.

657
00:31:44,000 --> 00:31:47,120
Speaker 4: He already has more turnover worthy plays this year than

658
00:31:47,160 --> 00:31:49,520
Speaker 4: he had in his whole career coming into this season.

659
00:31:50,000 --> 00:31:53,880
Speaker 4: And very similar to my utet picked last week, and honestly,

660
00:31:54,040 --> 00:31:58,360
Speaker 4: it probably applies to most teams. ECU's success comes down

661
00:31:58,480 --> 00:32:01,320
Speaker 4: to ailors. Protecting the football. The Pirates are five and

662
00:32:01,400 --> 00:32:04,280
Speaker 4: three this season. They have two turnovers in each of

663
00:32:04,320 --> 00:32:07,880
Speaker 4: their three losses, so six turnovers and three losses. They

664
00:32:07,960 --> 00:32:12,000
Speaker 4: have just one turnover and they're five wins combined. Well,

665
00:32:12,200 --> 00:32:15,200
Speaker 4: BYU doesn't force many turnovers. They're eighty ninth in the country.

666
00:32:15,280 --> 00:32:19,280
Speaker 4: They force just nine turnovers all season. So Taylors protect

667
00:32:19,280 --> 00:32:22,040
Speaker 4: the football. They should be able torch. This BYU defense

668
00:32:22,080 --> 00:32:25,280
Speaker 4: has been an absolute train wreck. I think the Pirates

669
00:32:25,520 --> 00:32:28,160
Speaker 4: can go into Provo get the win. I don't have

670
00:32:28,200 --> 00:32:30,800
Speaker 4: an ECU shirt, so I'm wearing a Pittsburgh Pirate shirt.

671
00:32:31,200 --> 00:32:33,640
Speaker 4: Let's raise the Jolly Roger in Provo.

672
00:32:34,840 --> 00:32:38,400
Speaker 1: Yoho hoo. I'm into it. I like it. I agree.

673
00:32:38,720 --> 00:32:40,960
Speaker 1: BYU has been playing with like a half deck the

674
00:32:41,000 --> 00:32:43,240
Speaker 1: whole year, like someone's been hurt on their offense every

675
00:32:43,280 --> 00:32:45,920
Speaker 1: single week. And if Jaron Hall is dinged up, I

676
00:32:45,960 --> 00:32:48,080
Speaker 1: mean there has to be some explanation for not being

677
00:32:48,080 --> 00:32:49,680
Speaker 1: able to pick apart the liberty defense.

678
00:32:50,000 --> 00:32:50,760
Speaker 5: So I agree with you.

679
00:32:50,960 --> 00:32:53,280
Speaker 1: Let's go with the team that has the hotter quarterback

680
00:32:53,880 --> 00:32:56,600
Speaker 1: certainly has cut their teeth against really good teams this year.

681
00:32:56,640 --> 00:32:58,400
Speaker 1: I mean, they open the season against a fully healthy

682
00:32:58,520 --> 00:33:01,680
Speaker 1: NC State, they nearly won that game, so they're high level.

683
00:33:01,680 --> 00:33:03,840
Speaker 1: Their fastball I think is clearly good enough, you know,

684
00:33:03,960 --> 00:33:06,360
Speaker 1: to get the win there. And I will go back

685
00:33:06,520 --> 00:33:09,400
Speaker 1: to my Miami of Ohio Akron play to point out

686
00:33:09,440 --> 00:33:11,760
Speaker 1: I'm glad that you wanted to get into Brett Gabbert.

687
00:33:12,040 --> 00:33:14,680
Speaker 1: They would score ten points against Western last week at home,

688
00:33:15,080 --> 00:33:17,240
Speaker 1: and he averaged five point eight yards per attempt with

689
00:33:17,360 --> 00:33:19,880
Speaker 1: a QBR of twenty four point eight. So whether it's

690
00:33:19,920 --> 00:33:24,080
Speaker 1: Avion Smith in some capacity, you know, being a change

691
00:33:24,120 --> 00:33:26,800
Speaker 1: of pace, being a wild back, wildcat quarterback, or if

692
00:33:26,840 --> 00:33:29,400
Speaker 1: it's Gabert the whole game, I kind of like this

693
00:33:29,760 --> 00:33:32,040
Speaker 1: play even more now that I'm thinking that Gabert may

694
00:33:32,120 --> 00:33:34,320
Speaker 1: end up getting a full sixty minute run in this game.

695
00:33:34,880 --> 00:33:37,320
Speaker 1: All right, now, for what's turned into our most profitable

696
00:33:37,400 --> 00:33:39,680
Speaker 1: portion of the podcast, which is the cutting room floor

697
00:33:39,800 --> 00:33:42,360
Speaker 1: or bonus picks. It sounds like you had a bunch

698
00:33:42,360 --> 00:33:43,760
Speaker 1: of them, So let's just run through the ones that

699
00:33:43,840 --> 00:33:45,320
Speaker 1: you liked, and I'll give you my gut.

700
00:33:45,160 --> 00:33:47,800
Speaker 4: Reaction why it's there missed too, So obviously I know

701
00:33:47,880 --> 00:33:52,560
Speaker 4: you like that. I like uav again Mis five against FAU.

702
00:33:53,600 --> 00:33:54,959
Speaker 1: Do we know the quarterback situation.

703
00:33:55,280 --> 00:33:58,600
Speaker 4: He's in protocol. I obviously like it a lot more

704
00:33:58,640 --> 00:34:03,080
Speaker 4: if he plays. I'll get just hopeing he plays. Zito

705
00:34:03,160 --> 00:34:06,120
Speaker 4: looked bad, but maybe with a full week of practice.

706
00:34:06,720 --> 00:34:09,759
Speaker 4: You know, he started Baylor, he's jumped around a lot,

707
00:34:09,880 --> 00:34:13,479
Speaker 4: so and you we all know what I think about Fau. Again,

708
00:34:13,560 --> 00:34:15,719
Speaker 4: this is a game where you just if you give

709
00:34:15,920 --> 00:34:18,879
Speaker 4: McBride to carry about forty times, they should win this game.

710
00:34:19,239 --> 00:34:21,239
Speaker 4: So obviously, like a lot more of Hopkins plays, it's

711
00:34:21,280 --> 00:34:22,759
Speaker 4: something to minor. I took it at five, so I

712
00:34:22,800 --> 00:34:25,120
Speaker 4: think it'll go up if he plays. But I still

713
00:34:25,239 --> 00:34:27,360
Speaker 4: like it. Honestly, I just think I think Fau stinks.

714
00:34:27,960 --> 00:34:30,040
Speaker 4: And then this, I couldn't go with a gross two

715
00:34:30,080 --> 00:34:31,680
Speaker 4: gross totals in a row. I went to the gross

716
00:34:31,760 --> 00:34:35,680
Speaker 4: under instead of the gross over. Fifty nine and a

717
00:34:35,760 --> 00:34:40,839
Speaker 4: half is the total. Again in Charlotte against Rice, it's

718
00:34:40,880 --> 00:34:43,359
Speaker 4: almost the same principle as the law Tech one. These

719
00:34:43,440 --> 00:34:46,439
Speaker 4: defenses are so bad and you have you know, maybe

720
00:34:46,520 --> 00:34:49,040
Speaker 4: Charlotte's offense clicks with the new interim coach. We've seen

721
00:34:49,080 --> 00:34:52,560
Speaker 4: the interim coach thing work before. If Chris Reynolds is healthy,

722
00:34:52,640 --> 00:34:55,439
Speaker 4: Charlotte could put up forty on anybody, and we saw

723
00:34:55,520 --> 00:34:58,759
Speaker 4: what Rice did last week. I really like that over

724
00:34:59,000 --> 00:35:01,680
Speaker 4: I you know, I didn't want to play two gross totals,

725
00:35:01,800 --> 00:35:03,759
Speaker 4: but Charlotte Rice over fifty nine and a half, I

726
00:35:03,920 --> 00:35:06,280
Speaker 4: really like that as well. These defenses are both horrific

727
00:35:07,160 --> 00:35:08,560
Speaker 4: and then the only one I've written down I don't

728
00:35:08,560 --> 00:35:10,640
Speaker 4: love it as much as is South Alabama minus ten

729
00:35:10,840 --> 00:35:11,919
Speaker 4: against Arkansas State.

730
00:35:13,120 --> 00:35:16,600
Speaker 1: That was the one for me. You know, it's a

731
00:35:16,640 --> 00:35:18,800
Speaker 1: little bit of a letdown after the loss to Troy.

732
00:35:19,880 --> 00:35:22,719
Speaker 1: They no longer control their own destiny in the Sun

733
00:35:22,800 --> 00:35:26,560
Speaker 1: Belt West. But from a head to head perspective, this

734
00:35:26,880 --> 00:35:29,000
Speaker 1: Arkansas State defense is going to make anybody look at

735
00:35:29,040 --> 00:35:31,319
Speaker 1: on offense. But really South Alabama I think it has

736
00:35:31,320 --> 00:35:33,600
Speaker 1: been one of the biggest surprise stories in the entire

737
00:35:33,680 --> 00:35:37,600
Speaker 1: Sun Belt in terms of offensive year over year improvement,

738
00:35:37,920 --> 00:35:40,280
Speaker 1: you know, between Web and running back and what Bradley's

739
00:35:40,280 --> 00:35:42,799
Speaker 1: been able to do at quarterback. I just I think

740
00:35:42,960 --> 00:35:45,400
Speaker 1: they're going to run away with this game. Ten I

741
00:35:45,480 --> 00:35:49,759
Speaker 1: think is pretty you know, accurately priced, But if it

742
00:35:49,920 --> 00:35:52,000
Speaker 1: were to dip below that key number of ten, I

743
00:35:52,040 --> 00:35:53,800
Speaker 1: think that actually becomes a hammer spot for me on

744
00:35:53,880 --> 00:35:54,280
Speaker 1: the Jags.

745
00:35:54,520 --> 00:35:56,759
Speaker 4: Yeah, I agree, it's Is it a letdown after the

746
00:35:56,840 --> 00:35:59,439
Speaker 4: Troy game? Or are they pissed off after the Troy

747
00:35:59,480 --> 00:36:02,160
Speaker 4: game and you know Troy trolling them a little bit?

748
00:36:02,840 --> 00:36:05,239
Speaker 4: Do they come out mad and just stomp Arkansas State.

749
00:36:05,320 --> 00:36:06,839
Speaker 4: I could also see that, which is kind of why

750
00:36:06,840 --> 00:36:08,080
Speaker 4: I didn't play it, but I do agree with you

751
00:36:08,120 --> 00:36:08,960
Speaker 4: where I like it.

752
00:36:09,719 --> 00:36:11,920
Speaker 5: As a reminder, the Big Bets on Campus podcast is

753
00:36:11,960 --> 00:36:15,200
Speaker 5: probably presented by bet MGM. So kick off the new

754
00:36:15,280 --> 00:36:18,120
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755
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756
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758
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Speaker 5: New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania, Puerto Rico, Tennessee, Virginia, Washington, DC,

759
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Speaker 5: West Virginia, Wyoming or Ontario only. Must be twenty one

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761
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762
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763
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764
00:36:49,120 --> 00:36:53,440
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765
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766
00:36:56,400 --> 00:37:00,680
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767
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769
00:37:05,640 --> 00:37:08,279
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770
00:37:08,280 --> 00:37:10,920
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772
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773
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774
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775
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776
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777
00:37:25,280 --> 00:37:27,439
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778
00:37:27,520 --> 00:37:30,600
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779
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780
00:37:33,080 --> 00:37:35,720
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781
00:37:35,760 --> 00:37:38,520
Speaker 5: in Utah and other states were prohibited. Promotional offers not

782
00:37:38,600 --> 00:37:40,600
Speaker 5: available in Nevada and New York.

783
00:37:41,400 --> 00:37:43,040
Speaker 4: We wanted to give you guys an update if you

784
00:37:43,120 --> 00:37:45,320
Speaker 4: listen back. When did we do this? June July we

785
00:37:45,400 --> 00:37:47,760
Speaker 4: did a New Year six draft where we each drafted

786
00:37:48,080 --> 00:37:51,359
Speaker 4: some G five teams. I believe we now have three

787
00:37:52,120 --> 00:37:54,560
Speaker 4: two two sitting in the top twenty five. So we

788
00:37:54,560 --> 00:37:56,319
Speaker 4: wanted to give you guys a quick update on where

789
00:37:56,360 --> 00:37:59,359
Speaker 4: we stand, and we decided the loser has to send

790
00:37:59,400 --> 00:38:03,000
Speaker 4: the other a swag pack of that team's Bowl appearance.

791
00:38:03,560 --> 00:38:06,040
Speaker 4: Calbrey's had the first pick, he to Houston. That is

792
00:38:06,120 --> 00:38:10,840
Speaker 4: not looking good. He also has Boise State, Eh maybe

793
00:38:11,440 --> 00:38:16,160
Speaker 4: utsa SMU Coastal Carolina. I guess Coastal still only has

794
00:38:16,200 --> 00:38:21,319
Speaker 4: one loss. My picks were Cincinnati and UCF big game

795
00:38:21,520 --> 00:38:25,040
Speaker 4: for my New Year six aspirations here Fresno State still,

796
00:38:25,120 --> 00:38:28,320
Speaker 4: I've in the Mountain, West Marshall and Air Force. So

797
00:38:28,440 --> 00:38:30,440
Speaker 4: that is where we sit right now. I would definitely

798
00:38:30,440 --> 00:38:33,000
Speaker 4: say I have the edge as we stand.

799
00:38:33,239 --> 00:38:35,280
Speaker 1: I'm just gonna go ahead and curl up my fist

800
00:38:35,520 --> 00:38:37,879
Speaker 1: like an angry wave because I have to ride them.

801
00:38:38,000 --> 00:38:41,040
Speaker 1: I really just have to play spoiler in this spot

802
00:38:41,080 --> 00:38:43,239
Speaker 1: because it would take an absolute car wreck in the

803
00:38:43,280 --> 00:38:45,920
Speaker 1: AC for Coastal to win out and then to leap

804
00:38:46,040 --> 00:38:48,400
Speaker 1: frog all those teams. So I'll go with Tulane. I

805
00:38:48,520 --> 00:38:50,680
Speaker 1: love what's going on in New Orleans. I mean it's

806
00:38:50,719 --> 00:38:53,000
Speaker 1: a team I've always had a sentimental positive feeling for,

807
00:38:53,120 --> 00:38:53,920
Speaker 1: So I'm gonna go with them.

808
00:38:53,960 --> 00:38:56,560
Speaker 4: I will say, for those don't remember how what we

809
00:38:56,680 --> 00:38:59,360
Speaker 4: made our tiebreaker. If a team goes that none of

810
00:38:59,440 --> 00:39:02,080
Speaker 4: us picked, I got the arnist. Matt Mitchell is going

811
00:39:02,160 --> 00:39:04,480
Speaker 4: to look pretty good in that two lane green Wave gear.

812
00:39:04,719 --> 00:39:07,600
Speaker 4: That was the deal was if we don't if none

813
00:39:07,640 --> 00:39:10,440
Speaker 4: of our picks hit, we have to split a sending

814
00:39:10,560 --> 00:39:14,160
Speaker 4: a pack to Matt Mitchell, our producer. So Matt Mitchell,

815
00:39:14,600 --> 00:39:16,640
Speaker 4: I hope you look good in green because.

816
00:39:21,280 --> 00:39:23,319
Speaker 1: I do believe not to docks him on this one,

817
00:39:23,360 --> 00:39:26,560
Speaker 1: but I think his oldest loves Tulane. So the fact

818
00:39:26,600 --> 00:39:28,600
Speaker 1: that there could be more swag in the house with

819
00:39:28,840 --> 00:39:31,880
Speaker 1: Angry Wave would just make for a very happy holiday

820
00:39:31,920 --> 00:39:33,120
Speaker 1: season in the Mitchell household.

821
00:39:33,120 --> 00:39:34,480
Speaker 4: He gives him an excuse to go down to New

822
00:39:34,560 --> 00:39:37,359
Speaker 4: Orleans for a weekend, always have his whole outfit packed.

823
00:39:37,520 --> 00:39:40,480
Speaker 6: To be clear, my son money line Monty sleeps with

824
00:39:40,600 --> 00:39:43,200
Speaker 6: a little two lane green Wave helmet next to his

825
00:39:43,440 --> 00:39:46,800
Speaker 6: little bed because he loves the little angry wave fists.

826
00:39:47,239 --> 00:39:49,520
Speaker 1: And I sent him to school this very morning.

827
00:39:50,040 --> 00:39:54,280
Speaker 6: It's chilly here in the buckle of America's dairy belt, Milwaukee, Wisconsin,

828
00:39:54,680 --> 00:39:57,360
Speaker 6: in his little two lane hoodie. So yeah, that'll be

829
00:39:57,440 --> 00:39:59,160
Speaker 6: welcome news, Go GreenWave.

830
00:39:59,360 --> 00:40:02,480
Speaker 1: Perfect all right. For Mike Ianello on Mike Calbery's This

831
00:40:02,520 --> 00:40:05,000
Speaker 1: has been the Big Bets on Campus podcast, our group

832
00:40:05,040 --> 00:40:06,960
Speaker 1: of five Deep Dive, thank you so much for listening.

833
00:40:07,080 --> 00:40:09,359
Speaker 1: Hopefully you get off to a hot start this week.

834
00:40:09,680 --> 00:40:10,160
Speaker 1: Thanks a lot