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Speaker 1: Let's get to our guest for the half hour. Cresh

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Speaker 1: Tantia is with a senior investment strategistic Credit Suiss on

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Speaker 1: the line from Singapore, Soresh, Thanks for being with us.

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Speaker 1: I was looking at your note and you say the

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Speaker 1: firm it does remain tactically overweight global equities. I'm looking

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Speaker 1: at the BLOOMBERGAM Live survey, the latest one that we've had.

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Speaker 1: Sixty of our respondents say there is a low or

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Speaker 1: zero probability that the FED is going to be able

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Speaker 1: to engineer a soft landing, that we're essentially looking at recession,

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Speaker 1: very high odds of that happening. How can you be

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Speaker 1: overweight global stocks right now? Isn't there more downside ahead?

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Speaker 1: Good morning? UM? I think definitely market is going to

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Speaker 1: remain bolatile because there is still a lot of uncinuitive

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Speaker 1: when incomes to inflation risk of position. But the reason

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Speaker 1: why we are still over it on equities and not

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Speaker 1: advising investors to cut exposure is because I think we're

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Speaker 1: going to see peak inflation in this quarter and probably

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Speaker 1: uh the big hawkishness from FED in the QUE four.

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Speaker 1: So as BONDI is stabilized, we are going to see

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Speaker 1: a recovery in the equity market. We've already seen that

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Speaker 1: in the last one month or so, as bondies have

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Speaker 1: come down, it has provided some sort of support to

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Speaker 1: the equity market despite the fact that earnings have been

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Speaker 1: not that great. So we don't deny the fact that

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Speaker 1: the growth is going to slow down going forward. UM

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Speaker 1: next year, we are looking at US economy growing at

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Speaker 1: one percent, but still I think given the fall in bondings,

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Speaker 1: it's quite likely that equities will be supported. When we

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Speaker 1: look at though, what we're expecting from the FED this week,

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Speaker 1: and we know that's going to be an aggressive hike,

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Speaker 1: how much are they looking at what we're hearing from

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Speaker 1: corporate sum and we just had Walmart saying that thriftiest

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Speaker 1: shoppers are really hurting their outlook. So so this meeting

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Speaker 1: we are expecting FED too high. Quolsitied by sevent pers

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Speaker 1: this point, and by the end of the year, the

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Speaker 1: FED rates could be between three point five percent or

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Speaker 1: three point seven So definitely higher rates will have impact

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Speaker 1: on the corporate earnings UM. In fact, I think the

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Speaker 1: analysts estimates are still very high. The market is looking

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Speaker 1: at two hundred forty eight dollars per share of earnings

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Speaker 1: for this year, which seems a bit high, so we

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Speaker 1: are definitely going to see more earnest down rate for

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Speaker 1: use the gree market. Nevertheless, I think peak hawkishness from

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Speaker 1: FIT is going to provide support to the prices, So

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Speaker 1: peak inflation, peak fed hawkishness, and by extension, I'm going

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Speaker 1: to assume that you're also expecting peak dollar um I

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Speaker 1: think next couple of months dollar could still could remain

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Speaker 1: strong until we get further rate hikes. But come September,

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Speaker 1: I think they'll be better call it clarity from FIT

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Speaker 1: and eventually they would expect dollar to weaken. So we

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Speaker 1: are looking at currencies like sing dollar or in the

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Speaker 1: of the market space, Canadian dollar Norwigi grona on these

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Speaker 1: currencies to appreciate against US dollar. That's way through into

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Speaker 1: our cn market performance. Do you expect that we will

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Speaker 1: see a bit more of a switch back to there

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Speaker 1: from the likes of their movingto China equities. I think

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Speaker 1: China equities are going to out perform going forward. It's

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Speaker 1: a bitter down market. Over the last eighteen months, the

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Speaker 1: market has lost one third of its value, and China

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Speaker 1: is going to be the only country going forward. Their

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Speaker 1: policy will be a physic We know that the company

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Speaker 1: is going to spend a lot of money via physical

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Speaker 1: policy to revive the economy. So going forward, I would

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Speaker 1: expect a recovery to take place and that should support

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Speaker 1: the out performance of China compared to Southeast Asia. We

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Speaker 1: have been seeing a little bit of a move lower

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Speaker 1: in the oil market ahead of the FED meeting and

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Speaker 1: Morgan Stanley cutting their price forecast on this reduced demand

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Speaker 1: outlook your view here on the oil market, particularly as

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Speaker 1: we have these recession rephas the rash. I think oil

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Speaker 1: prices are going to remain range mount So we are

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Speaker 1: looking at print moving to hundred fifteen in the next

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Speaker 1: few months, which would be roughly ten percent upside from here.

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Speaker 1: But we are not looking at substantial upsite because the

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Speaker 1: demand is going to slow down going forward as global

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Speaker 1: growth comes down. And not to forget that right now,

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Speaker 1: there is a very strong demand because of the summer

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Speaker 1: driving season, so as summer is over, that demand will

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Speaker 1: come down. On the supply side. Also, OPEC has been

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Speaker 1: increasing supplies and we know that China and India have

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Speaker 1: been buying Russian oil. So I think going forward, the

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Speaker 1: supply demand balance in the oil market is going to

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Speaker 1: improve and that should cap the upside. So that's why

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Speaker 1: we're looking at very range bound rate only ten percent

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Speaker 1: upside two fifteen dollars in the next few months. So

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Speaker 1: you mentioned consumption not only from China but India as well.

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Speaker 1: Are are you looking at posit civity and both of

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Speaker 1: those economies as we move forward. Yes, so we can

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Speaker 1: clearly see that in China things are going to improve

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Speaker 1: as the government spends money on infrastructure and all other

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Speaker 1: sort of sectors to revive the economy, so that should

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Speaker 1: improve the demand for oil. Um. For in India as well,

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Speaker 1: the domestic economy has been doing extremely well. Um it's

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Speaker 1: still coming out of pandemic, so fuel consumption, the industry,

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Speaker 1: medical consumption, economic activity, all of them have been seeing

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Speaker 1: very strong growth. So I think demand from India and

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Speaker 1: China will remain strong going forward and they can clearly

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Speaker 1: absorb supplies coming out of Russia. We've been seeing a

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Speaker 1: move higher in the pre market in Ali Baba shares.

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Speaker 1: Is it seeks this primary Hong Kong listing really trying

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Speaker 1: to get China investors too. Are you kind of looking

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Speaker 1: at that crackdown being mostly over, particularly after we saw

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Speaker 1: deity as well. How did that fine? Absolutely? I think

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Speaker 1: large part of the crackdown has already happened. Going forward,

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Speaker 1: we might see some fine tuning of the regulations by authorities,

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Speaker 1: but we are not expecting new regulations on the Chinese

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Speaker 1: tech sector. And that's why one way to play the

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Speaker 1: China recovery going forward would be to take exposure to

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Speaker 1: these beaten down technology names because most of these stocks

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Speaker 1: are down in the last two years because of the

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Speaker 1: economic slowdown and because of the exulty crackdown. So going forward,

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Speaker 1: as the economy covers correctown seems to be over, then

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Speaker 1: we are going to see a relating of all these stocks.

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Speaker 1: I'm curious to get your take on how you evaluate

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Speaker 1: geopolitical risk right now, whether it's war in Ukraine or

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Speaker 1: US China tensions. Where Ed was talking about the situation

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Speaker 1: as it relates to the Nancy Pelosi visit potential visit

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Speaker 1: to Taiwan, is geopolitical risk among your chief concerns. I

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Speaker 1: think the key cuncern is still about the Ukraine Russia

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Speaker 1: conflict because that seems to have impact on communities and

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Speaker 1: the economic outlook. China Taiwan risk is more of a

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Speaker 1: big deal risk. UM sometimes it trade up. As you know,

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Speaker 1: we see um international leaders visit Taiwan, then we see

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Speaker 1: some player up or tensions. But I don't think that

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Speaker 1: is a key concern to take exposure to China or

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Speaker 1: Asian markets at the moment. I think the key concern

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Speaker 1: is still about Russia Ukraine because um, if the tensions

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Speaker 1: played up, then we could see higher community prices and

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Speaker 1: economists could slow down and just very quickly as the rest.

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Speaker 1: Just give us your view on why you have a

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Speaker 1: preference at the moment for AM high credit bonds and

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Speaker 1: the reason being that eats are very high. If you

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Speaker 1: look at the emerging market hard currency bonds, they are

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Speaker 1: yielding eight point four percent in the US dollar. This

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Speaker 1: is the highest yield in the last ten year. Although

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Speaker 1: there are a lot of risk given the recent usual

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Speaker 1: about Chinese who mowners spending their mortgage payments. But WITHINK,

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Speaker 1: a lot of that news is only there in the

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Speaker 1: price and that's why we prefer e much market hard

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Speaker 1: currency bonds within the fixing the market. All right, thank

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Speaker 1: you so much for Restantia senior investment strategist. Act Credit

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Speaker 1: Sweez on the line for us from Singapore