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Speaker 1: All right, we'll come Hoops tonight. You're at the ball.
Speaker 1: You've got you Monday, everybody, I'll ball. If you guys
Speaker 1: had a great weekend, you had a jampack show for
Speaker 1: you today. Off the top, we're gonna do my top
Speaker 1: five takeaways from the inn season tournament semifinal games, and
Speaker 1: then after that, like we do every Monday, we'll do
Speaker 1: power rankings going through our top ten teams in the league.
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Speaker 1: the way. Here, all right, let's talk some basketball. So
Speaker 1: five big takeaways from the n Season Tournament semi final games.
Speaker 1: Number One, shay Giljes Alexander is playing some truly special basketball.
Speaker 1: He shook off a really rough shooting start in the
Speaker 1: first half. Kind Of an interesting matchup between Houston and
Speaker 1: Oklahoma City because to elite perimeter defense groups with.
Speaker 2: A lot of speed.
Speaker 1: But there's just a huge difference in the total amount
Speaker 1: of offensive skill between those two rosters, which continue to
Speaker 1: bear out, especially when you got into the second half
Speaker 1: of that game. But Shay, obviously, it's like you're facing
Speaker 1: a steady diet of guys like Dylan Brooks and a
Speaker 1: Men Thompson and really strong, physical, long defenders that can
Speaker 1: take away a lot of the advantages that Shay has
Speaker 1: against other guards in the league. Right, But like, he
Speaker 1: just stayed with it after having a rough shooting start,
Speaker 1: really started to get going in that third quarter, hit
Speaker 1: some ridiculous isolation moves against a Men Thompson, who's one
Speaker 1: of the best perimeter defenders in the league. I trimmed
Speaker 1: an example of one where he dribbled really hard at
Speaker 1: a men's left shoulders or right handed drive and a
Speaker 1: men cut.
Speaker 2: It off as he should.
Speaker 1: He's a quick athlete laterally, as quick an athlete laterally
Speaker 1: as you'll find in the league. He's not the guy
Speaker 1: you're gonna beat with the first move, right, Like, there's
Speaker 1: I always think about these isolation matchups as like, there's
Speaker 1: the advantage that the offensive player has, right. So, like,
Speaker 1: for instance, if you are a player that is considerably
Speaker 1: faster and maybe a bit stronger than the guy you're
Speaker 1: going against, you don't want to mess around with the ball.
Speaker 1: You just want to rip through like immediately on the
Speaker 1: catch and allow your first step and your strength to
Speaker 1: power through the defensive player and go right. But when
Speaker 1: you're in a matchup like this where it's kind of
Speaker 1: the opposite where the guy who's guarding you is maybe
Speaker 1: a little taller, maybe a little quicker, and a guy
Speaker 1: that you can't go through, then suddenly it becomes about misdirection,
Speaker 1: change of change of pace, counter moves, like getting that
Speaker 1: defender out of position one way or another. Right, So
Speaker 1: Shae hits a hard dribble move to the right, a
Speaker 1: man cuts him off, takes the contact in the chest,
Speaker 1: and shape pulls back the dribble through his legs to
Speaker 1: his left hand. But I had this coaching Juco that
Speaker 1: used to talk about this, and it's something that I've
Speaker 1: always tried to imprint on the kids that I train
Speaker 1: when I'm training my high school kids, and that is
Speaker 1: when you're in your dribble moves, it's more important to
Speaker 1: focus on hitting dribble moves in drills attached to an
Speaker 1: actual forward movement, something that's an attack, or in the
Speaker 1: case of shooting, attaching it to a jump shot. So
Speaker 1: like when I do ball handling drills with the kids
Speaker 1: always like we're ball handling into an aggressive forward move
Speaker 1: or we're ball handling into a jump shot off the dribble.
Speaker 1: If you can't connect the move to what comes next,
Speaker 1: then the move is useless. There are a lot of
Speaker 1: guys in the league that if they get cut off,
Speaker 1: can pull back between their legs back to their left hand.
Speaker 1: Go to this clip that I posted on my Twitter
Speaker 1: feed again at underscore json LT. You'll see as Shay
Speaker 1: takes that contact and pulls it back between his legs,
Speaker 1: he's immediately back forward and because he's able to do that,
Speaker 1: he's able to get an angle on a Men Thompson.
Speaker 1: Then a Men Thompson again because he's a men Thompson
Speaker 1: recovers with his lateral quickness to get back in front
Speaker 1: of Shay. But as a man is taking that aggressive
Speaker 1: step to get back in front of him, that's when
Speaker 1: Shay lifts up off the dribble, catching him Men Thompson
Speaker 1: between steps and he's able to get enough separation to
Speaker 1: knock down the shots. Just super super elite dribble combination
Speaker 1: work footwork to get an opening against one of the
Speaker 1: best perimeter defenders in the league. And I've talked about
Speaker 1: this with Shay before, but he's one of the best
Speaker 1: at connecting multiple dribble combinations in contact. It's one of
Speaker 1: the biggest things that players struggle with is they can
Speaker 1: when things are free, when it's like, oh, if I
Speaker 1: can hit a move to get a guy set up
Speaker 1: for a screen, and I can get him separated from
Speaker 1: me on a screen, then yeah, I can hit an
Speaker 1: in and out dribble into a step back, or I
Speaker 1: can cross over to snake the pick and roll or
Speaker 1: something when I'm in space. But it's very different when
Speaker 1: you're in a congested environment, when you have a lot
Speaker 1: of bodies around you. We're gonna get a little bit
Speaker 1: further into this when we talk about Hartenstein, but this
Speaker 1: is the type of scoring that has more playoff resiliency
Speaker 1: when you can do it in contact, when you can
Speaker 1: do it in congestion. That is the type of shot
Speaker 1: making that inevitably rises to the surface when you get
Speaker 1: to the postseason. Defense is locked down all your pet actions,
Speaker 1: the easy opportunities are few and far between, and it
Speaker 1: becomes a lot about squeezing extra bits of offense out
Speaker 1: of late clock situations. In situations where your offense doesn't
Speaker 1: work and you need somebody to rescue. And again, like
Speaker 1: just he'll dribble at you. It doesn't matter if you
Speaker 1: cut him off, He's always gonna chain it to the
Speaker 1: next counter move. Doesn't matter if you cut him off again,
Speaker 1: he'll chain it to the next counter move. Oh, you
Speaker 1: cut him off a few times, he'll get rid of
Speaker 1: the ball, pop right back out, get it and rip back.
Speaker 1: If you overplay, he'll backcut. That's the thing that Isaiah
Speaker 1: Hartenstein has helped unlock, right, Just a lot of really
Speaker 1: really high level offensive stuff out of Shake Gild justs
Speaker 1: Alexander really really impressive second half against the Houston Rockets.
Speaker 1: His last fifteen games, Shay's averaging thirty three points, five rebounds,
Speaker 1: and six assists on fifty two percent from the field,
Speaker 1: thirty eight percent from three, and eighty five percent from
Speaker 1: the line. The pull up three point shot, that's something
Speaker 1: he was working on a lot in the early part
Speaker 1: of the season, has really been a boost to his offense.
Speaker 1: He's averaging seven three point attempts per game in that
Speaker 1: fifteen game stretch. Six of those seven three point attempts
Speaker 1: are off the dribble, and he's sitting him at thirty
Speaker 1: five percent over thirty five percent, which is going to
Speaker 1: get him over a point shot, which makes it a
Speaker 1: useful shot for him in half court situations. Again, and
Speaker 1: we talked about this a lot. Him and Jalen Williams
Speaker 1: spent a lot of time this summer working on that
Speaker 1: pull up jump shot from the three point line rather
Speaker 1: than from the mid range area. And by the way,
Speaker 1: in that game, Oklahoma City trailing by one in the
Speaker 1: second half, Bang bang, a pull up three by Shae
Speaker 1: Yioss Alexander off the dribble, Another pull up three by
Speaker 1: Jalen Williams, kind of in a ball screen as a defender,
Speaker 1: one underneath the pick, a couple pull up threes. All
Speaker 1: of a sudden, Oklahoma City's up five and they never
Speaker 1: look back. That's the type of thing that will be
Speaker 1: a ceiling razor for this Thunder team off the dribble,
Speaker 1: three point shooting, adding layers to the offense that weren't
Speaker 1: there last year. Number two, The Thunder in the big picture,
Speaker 1: need to start thinking of Isaiah Hartenstein as one of
Speaker 1: their core five players and not just a bench weapon
Speaker 1: or a player with which to facilitate a big look.
Speaker 1: The Isaiah Hartenstein fit in Oklahoma City has been an
Speaker 1: absolute dream on both ends of the flour. In defense,
Speaker 1: he provides a credible option for power centers. Shane Gun
Speaker 1: has been cooking a lot of centers around the league,
Speaker 1: including some of the better defensive players at the center
Speaker 1: position in the league. He's playing really good basketball. He's
Speaker 1: been Houston's best player this year. He's a huge like
Speaker 1: to be able to have a player that can hang
Speaker 1: with the Shane Goon the way that Hartenstein did in
Speaker 1: that game really given Shang Gun a lot of fits
Speaker 1: in that particular game, his ability to be a credible
Speaker 1: weapon in that type of matchup. But then also a
Speaker 1: guy that you can throw at Jokich, a guy you
Speaker 1: can throw at Sabonis, a guy you can throw at
Speaker 1: use of Nurkic, a guy you can throw out Anthony Davis,
Speaker 1: a guy you can throw out Jaron Jackson, who's trying
Speaker 1: to hakeem everybody in the league at this point in time.
Speaker 1: Zubas like whoever you run into in a Western Conference
Speaker 1: playoff series, there's a good chance if you're gonna win
Speaker 1: multiple playoff rounds that you'll have to go through multiple
Speaker 1: power centers, and power centers can.
Speaker 2: Give chet issues at times.
Speaker 1: Now Chet has also won those battles sometimes, but he's
Speaker 1: at physical disadvantages there, and har Hartenstein just makes their
Speaker 1: center rotation that much more formidable in a conference where
Speaker 1: you kind of need to have a formidable center rotation.
Speaker 1: I thought he did a really nice job on Shangun.
Speaker 1: He's also solid across the board as a defender. He
Speaker 1: can run credible drop coverages at the level coverages he
Speaker 1: can switch pretty well. Has really anchored them on the glass.
Speaker 1: Again when he's off the floor this year, when Hartenstein's
Speaker 1: off the floor, the Thunder are giving up an offensive
Speaker 1: rebound on thirty three percent of their opponent's missus. With
Speaker 1: Isaiah Hartenstein on the floor, that number decreases by five
Speaker 1: point six percent. So, again to clarify it, when Hartenstein
Speaker 1: is off the floor, the Thunder their defensive rebounding percentage
Speaker 1: is sixty seven percent, meaning opponents get thirty three percent back.
Speaker 1: When Hartenstein is on the floor, their defensive rebound percentage
Speaker 1: rises all the way up to seventy two point six percent,
Speaker 1: So they're giving up an offensive rebound on just twenty
Speaker 1: seven point four percent of their opponent's missus. That's a
Speaker 1: gigantic difference. That's the difference between like untenably bad and
Speaker 1: pretty good. And that's what Isaiah Hartenstein has done for
Speaker 1: this team in their physicality on the front line and
Speaker 1: then on the offense, just greasing the wheels, just connecting
Speaker 1: actions with his side to side, flowing handoffs, opening up
Speaker 1: actions with his screening, finishing plays with his scoring. He's
Speaker 1: generating four offensive rebounds per thirty six minutes.
Speaker 2: He's just too good.
Speaker 1: Like, I don't think you can leave him on the
Speaker 1: bench all that often or change too much of your
Speaker 1: approach when Chet comes back, because he's one of your
Speaker 1: five best players. When Chet comes back, I would lean
Speaker 1: as much as possible into Chet Hartenstein lineups together because
Speaker 1: when Chet comes back again, like when Chet comes back,
Speaker 1: there's gonna be you're gonna have to do a certain
Speaker 1: amount of staggering to keep it big on the floor
Speaker 1: all the time. There's gonna be a certain amount of
Speaker 1: like lineups that are gonna have one big on the floor.
Speaker 1: But my thing is, like when you're in a big spot,
Speaker 1: when you're in a big playoff series, again, there's some
Speaker 1: matchup flexibility, but there's such a gap between Isaiah Hartenstein
Speaker 1: and the sixth best player on the team, or I
Speaker 1: should say, Isai Hartenstein's more like the fourth best player
Speaker 1: on the team. But like if you go Shay Jay
Speaker 1: Dub Chet or Shaye Chet Jay Dub, however you want
Speaker 1: to order it, then there's Dorton Hartenstein. If you take
Speaker 1: Hartenstein off the floor and replace him with a guy
Speaker 1: like an Isaiah Joe or a case On Wallace or
Speaker 1: Alex Cruzo, those are good players and there will be
Speaker 1: matchups where that makes sense. But I think Isaiah Hartenstein
Speaker 1: is just that good, and I think they need a
Speaker 1: lean into as much opportunity and repetition as possible for
Speaker 1: Chet and Isaiah to play together, because inevitably, I think
Speaker 1: that will give them the best opportunity to leave all
Speaker 1: five of their best players on the floor when the
Speaker 1: chips are down. Side note, lou Dort was incredible in
Speaker 1: that Rockets game. He had five threes, including some really
Speaker 1: tightly contested ones. You know the classic lou Dort like
Speaker 1: doesn't even look like he's that open, but he just
Speaker 1: shoots that skyball that just goes like thirty feet in
Speaker 1: the air and just falls right through the rim. He
Speaker 1: also had three steals, a couple of crazy ones too.
Speaker 1: He had one where he was denying Fred van Vliet
Speaker 1: almost out at half court and then disengaged from Fred
Speaker 1: to steal a tree pass to a different player that
Speaker 1: was flashing around the right wing. Just an unbelievable player
Speaker 1: who's incredibly useful and fills a very important role for
Speaker 1: that Oklahoma City. Oklahoma City team number three. Houston is
Speaker 1: a really talented team, but their development as a team
Speaker 1: will be stunted until they can get a legitimate, high
Speaker 1: level perimeter shot creator and no Albern Shangun is not enough.
Speaker 1: Houston did periodically cause problems for Oklahoma City in transition
Speaker 1: in that game, but they got absolutely bludgeoned in the
Speaker 1: half court. Oklahoma City outscored Houston in the half court
Speaker 1: by forty points per one hundred possessions. Houston managed just
Speaker 1: a sixty three offensive rating per cleaning the glass in
Speaker 1: the half court in that game against Oklahoma City. That's
Speaker 1: completely untenable. Once again, just complete duds from Jalen Green
Speaker 1: and Fred Van Vliet that combined to go two for
Speaker 1: nineteen from three. A lot of really bad off the
Speaker 1: dribble ones too. They were kind of telegraphing him It
Speaker 1: kind of felt like anytime you gave them the ball,
Speaker 1: they'd call for the ball screen and they would both
Speaker 1: just like dribble as hard as they could to get
Speaker 1: to the other side of the screen and just rise
Speaker 1: up and shoot, sometimes without even making a read. There's
Speaker 1: a play where Fred van vliet came off of a
Speaker 1: screen and got blocked on a pull up three, and
Speaker 1: I just don't even know what he saw. The big
Speaker 1: was up at the level, it wasn't open. I just
Speaker 1: I just didn't know what he was doing. It was
Speaker 1: a really, really weird game from those guys. Houston's half
Speaker 1: court offense on the season now is managing just ninety
Speaker 1: point five points per one hundred possessions. That ranks twenty fifth.
Speaker 1: These are three teams that have more efficient half court
Speaker 1: offenses than the Houston Rockets, the Toronto Raptors, the Utah Jazz,
Speaker 1: and the Detroit Pistons. Again, that is completely untenable. So
Speaker 1: this story just eventually ends with them packaging one or
Speaker 1: two of their young players in draft compensation, with Fred
Speaker 1: van Vlietz expiring forty three million dollars deal to bring
Speaker 1: in a star. They just to find the right guy.
Speaker 1: I was kind of poking around this morning, because like,
Speaker 1: I think they're the kind of team that needs to
Speaker 1: wait for the right guy. But so much of it
Speaker 1: depends on how much they want to manage their cap situation,
Speaker 1: because like you have Shanegon and Jalen Green's contracts, their
Speaker 1: extensions kicking next year, so you've got all that money,
Speaker 1: but you don't have to pay guys like a Men
Speaker 1: Thompson or Jabari Smith Junior. I think Jabari Smith you
Speaker 1: have to pay like the year after next, and then
Speaker 1: a Men Thompson and even a year further into the future.
Speaker 1: So because they're not going to have to do any
Speaker 1: sort of significant extension or new deal for somebody in
Speaker 1: the next couple of years, I wonder if they're the
Speaker 1: team that makes sense for zach Lavine. Like I wonder
Speaker 1: if they're the team that should just call up Chicago
Speaker 1: and be like, we'll give you Fred van Vliet for
Speaker 1: zach Lavine straight up the boy. It benefits both teams
Speaker 1: as Chicago gets off of zach Lavine's money because it's
Speaker 1: two additional years at that number, right, but Houston in
Speaker 1: the short term gets a much better offensive player in
Speaker 1: Zach Lavine to hopefully unlock something in the half court
Speaker 1: with how good this Houston defense is, and at the
Speaker 1: end of the day, it passes the buck for the
Speaker 1: superstar trade down the line. I just wonder if they're
Speaker 1: to end up letting Fred go because they just don't
Speaker 1: want to deal with the money element of it. And
Speaker 1: we'll see there's obviously cap ramifications as it pertains to
Speaker 1: the second apron, and it could affect some of their
Speaker 1: decision making down the roster. But like you know, it's
Speaker 1: one of those things where it's like, are they gonna
Speaker 1: jump on a Jimmy Butler, Well, it's like, I don't
Speaker 1: know if that's the right move. Are they gonna jump
Speaker 1: on a Brandon Ingram I don't think he's the right
Speaker 1: type of guy for them to go for.
Speaker 2: So, like you're.
Speaker 1: Trying to wait for the right type of star to
Speaker 1: become available so that you can throw the kitchen sink
Speaker 1: at him, bring him in and try to run for
Speaker 1: a championship.
Speaker 2: Right.
Speaker 1: Well, one of the ways to pass the buck in
Speaker 1: that regard is a term Fred van Vliet and expiring
Speaker 1: mediocre star player not even a star into Zach Lavine
Speaker 1: a little bit longer term deal obviously, but you're in
Speaker 1: a stretch right now where you're not trying to do
Speaker 1: much anyway. You could turn around and trade him in
Speaker 1: the future if you need to. Prevents you from losing
Speaker 1: Fred van Vliet for nothing this summer, unless they want to.
Speaker 1: They may want to lose Fred van Vliet for nothing
Speaker 1: this summer.
Speaker 2: We'll see.
Speaker 1: But like, that's just one of the guys that I
Speaker 1: was thinking. Here's the thing. I don't think any but
Speaker 1: he's gonna make trade for zach Lavine. But as I
Speaker 1: try to conceptualize a version of a situation where a
Speaker 1: team might be like, hey, let's go get zach Lavine,
Speaker 1: the one that I'm looking at right now is like
Speaker 1: Fred van Vliet and Zach Lvine make basically the same
Speaker 1: money right now for this season. So if you could
Speaker 1: turn Fred van Vliet into a much, much, much better
Speaker 1: offensive player overnight, that could be the kind of thing
Speaker 1: that gives this Houston team a more formidable two way
Speaker 1: attack as opposed to just the defense that can't score
Speaker 1: when they could strangle in a half court. Number three,
Speaker 1: It's time to go back to viewing the Bucks as
Speaker 1: a legitimate second tier championship contender. After the rough start
Speaker 1: they had this season. I know it felt like it
Speaker 1: was impossible. They've really turned it around and played some
Speaker 1: really good basketball, another really impressive win over a good
Speaker 1: Atlanta Hi team in the NBA Cup semi final. They're
Speaker 1: twelve and three in their last fifteen games. That's tied
Speaker 1: for the best record in the league over that span.
Speaker 1: Eleventh in offense, tenth in defense, eighth the net rating.
Speaker 1: Still struggling a bit with their athleticism deficiencies in a
Speaker 1: couple of areas, namely the glass and then in transition,
Speaker 1: but they're really competing night in and night out to
Speaker 1: build better habits and attention to detail. They found an
Speaker 1: orientation on defense that is working by leaning more into
Speaker 1: Andre Jackson and AJ Green than they were into Pat
Speaker 1: Connaton and delonn Right. That's been working. And then on offense,
Speaker 1: the return of Chris Middleton has brought this influx of
Speaker 1: ball handling, which they've really needed. He's had twenty three
Speaker 1: assists and just six turnovers in his four games since returning.
Speaker 1: They'll have games where teams are showing at the level
Speaker 1: against Chris and Dame and they'll just rep Giannis as
Speaker 1: a roller all night long, and he'll crush teams as
Speaker 1: a roller. Then they'll face teams like Atlanta who do
Speaker 1: a lot more switching, and then they'll start going to
Speaker 1: Giannis attacking mismatches in the post, or Dame attacking forwards
Speaker 1: from the perimeter. There's a sequence at the end of
Speaker 1: the Hawks game where it's like, Jalen Johnson's on Giannis,
Speaker 1: Dyson Daniels is on Dame. They run a ball screen,
Speaker 1: there's a switch. Jiannis takes Dyson Daniels down to the block,
Speaker 1: promptly draws a double team, makes a beautiful pass Brook Lopez.
Speaker 1: He gets a layup. Okay, you run the same ball screen.
Speaker 1: It's a switch now. Jalen Johnson is on Dame, Dyson
Speaker 1: Daniels on Giannis. Dame takes Jalen Johnson off the drubble,
Speaker 1: gets right into the lane. Because Jalen Johnson, even as
Speaker 1: good of an athlete as he is, Dame is just
Speaker 1: really small and quick. He gets past him, sinks a floater,
Speaker 1: and it ice is the game, right, Like, they have
Speaker 1: different ways that they can attack based on the different
Speaker 1: matchups that they're going against. And again, they were in
Speaker 1: a bad funk to start this year. They didn't look
Speaker 1: serious about their goals or committed to the work. But
Speaker 1: their process has been really good over the last month
Speaker 1: and they have completely turned around their fortunes. They are
Speaker 1: rightfully underdogs against Oklahoma City right now. Draft Kings has
Speaker 1: them as a four and a half point underdog, But
Speaker 1: if they can go into Vegas tomorrow night and get
Speaker 1: a win, that would be a huge statement about their
Speaker 1: potential within this season. Giannis will have speed and size
Speaker 1: mismatches against everybody sickly on the thunder roster. If you
Speaker 1: can dominate that game, they get enough stops, they keep
Speaker 1: Oklahoma City attitude, transition, they don't turn the basketball over
Speaker 1: too much. Again, that's a game that could get ugly
Speaker 1: for Milwaukee. We've seen that type of game get ugly
Speaker 1: for Milwaukee. The younger, faster, more athletic team gets a
Speaker 1: bunch of steals and runs it down their throat and transition.
Speaker 1: If they can avoid that and kind of trap things
Speaker 1: and have Giannis dominate, they got a shot and if
Speaker 1: they can win that game, it'd be a big statement
Speaker 1: about their potential. We're going to talk more about the
Speaker 1: Hawks game here in a second as part of this
Speaker 1: next question. Lastly, number five, the top five players are
Speaker 1: putting on a show as they jockey for position at
Speaker 1: the top of this league. Yiannis was just absolutely unreal
Speaker 1: down the stretch of the Atlanta game. Obviously had the
Speaker 1: huge block against Clint Capella and help at the rim.
Speaker 1: That's a just deja vu vu from the twenty twenty
Speaker 1: one NBA Finals, Giannis blocking a alley up dunk in
Speaker 1: a really important, you know, high stakes situation like that.
Speaker 1: But he also did some of the most surgical half
Speaker 1: court work I've ever seen Jiannis do in the NBA.
Speaker 1: He had a beautiful cross court pass to Andre Jackson
Speaker 1: in crunch time for three in the in the in
Speaker 1: the right corner, just beautiful pass, beautiful read in a
Speaker 1: ball screen. He had like a left hand a left
Speaker 1: shoulder fade away that he hit on the left block
Speaker 1: in clutch time where he like, like for a right
Speaker 1: handed shooter to turn and fade over your left shoulder
Speaker 1: is the hardest shot because you have to swing your
Speaker 1: entire body around to get squared up. Really high level
Speaker 1: bit of shot making from Jannis is like over a
Speaker 1: double team. He just like elevated like Kobe Bryant over
Speaker 1: his left shoulder to knock down a mid range jump shot.
Speaker 1: Then he had this beautiful post up feed where he
Speaker 1: got that switch I was talking about this earlier where
Speaker 1: gets Dyson Daniels in a switch off of the Dame action,
Speaker 1: backs him down, draws Clint Capella, and help feeds brook
Speaker 1: Lopez nicely right in front of the rim for that
Speaker 1: little layup. Just really nice surgical work from Jannis. And
Speaker 1: here's the thing, Like Yo Kich is still the best
Speaker 1: player in the world and I haven't seen anything that's
Speaker 1: changed my opinion on that. But all of these top
Speaker 1: tier stars are playing some unbelievable basketball. We talked about
Speaker 1: shake Yil just Alexander off the top of the show.
Speaker 1: Giannis is averaging thirty four eleven and seven in his
Speaker 1: last thirteen games. Luca's been kicking, but since he came
Speaker 1: back from his injury. He just dropped a forty five
Speaker 1: eleven and thirteen to beat the Warriors in Golden State
Speaker 1: last night. Tatum's numbers have taken a little dip in
Speaker 1: the last few weeks. His last nine games, he's at
Speaker 1: twenty nine ten and five, or excuse me, twenty five,
Speaker 1: ten and five on just forty four percent from the field.
Speaker 1: In twenty nine percent from three, but he was playing
Speaker 1: some of the best basketball of his career before that,
Speaker 1: and he had a little bit of a knee injury.
Speaker 1: So the point is is, like the top of this
Speaker 1: league is just in an absolutely crazy place right now.
Speaker 1: It actually reminds me of about six or seven years
Speaker 1: ago when like Lebron was still at the top of
Speaker 1: his league, like at the top of his game, in
Speaker 1: the top of the league. Stephan kd Are both like
Speaker 1: hot on his tail, like getting their shit together of
Speaker 1: winning those titles in Golden State, James Harden's coming up
Speaker 1: right like that was right around the time Jiannis and
Speaker 1: Yanna started to get his kind of like momentum as
Speaker 1: a number one player in the league. Like a lot
Speaker 1: of talent at the top of the league right now,
Speaker 1: it just feels like there's a lot of guys competing
Speaker 1: for that time, which is again a credit to Joki
Speaker 1: because I still think he has a hold on it
Speaker 1: at this point. All right, let's get into our power rankings.
Speaker 1: It's going to be quick hitters on a lot of these.
Speaker 1: Most of the teams in the NBA have only played
Speaker 1: once or twice since our last rankings, so We're not
Speaker 1: going to get too deep into those, but all of
Speaker 1: our odds are provided by our partner at DraftKings. Again,
Speaker 1: after every single team, I will give you guys their
Speaker 1: conference odds and their title odds.
Speaker 2: Number ten.
Speaker 1: The Miami Heat only one game last week, a win
Speaker 1: at home over the Toronto Raptors. Tyler Harrow continues his
Speaker 1: excellent start to the season, and bam Adebayo's offense is
Speaker 1: starting to take off. He's averaging seven assists per game
Speaker 1: over his last eight games, and he's averaging twenty one
Speaker 1: points per game after his last three games. And all
Speaker 1: of the reporting has been indicating that the Heat are
Speaker 1: looking to move on from Jimmy Butler at some point
Speaker 1: before the deadline. Who knows where he'll end up, but
Speaker 1: I think it's a good idea. This is a team
Speaker 1: that is starting to play some good basketball. They've won
Speaker 1: four in a row against some good teams and Tyler
Speaker 1: Harrow and bam Adebayo really taking off. That partnership is working.
Speaker 1: So it's as good a time as any to try
Speaker 1: to turn Jimmy Butler into assets that will help the
Speaker 1: Heat kind of propel themselves into the next era. Right now,
Speaker 1: the Miami Heater, plus fourteen hundred to win the Eastern
Speaker 1: Conference and plus thirty five hundred to win the title.
Speaker 1: Number nine the Denver Nuggets just one game last week,
Speaker 1: a blowout of the Clippers on Friday Night. A weird
Speaker 1: game with a lot of turnovers and a lot of
Speaker 1: the game being played in transition, but they were able
Speaker 1: to win comfortably without needing a superhero game from Jokic.
Speaker 1: She went for just sixteen, seven and two in that game.
Speaker 1: Six guys in double figures for the Nuggets, including both
Speaker 1: Julian Strawther and Peyton Watson off the bench, so a
Speaker 1: nice little bounce back. They had lost five out of eight,
Speaker 1: and they had back to back blowout wins after that
Speaker 1: to get back on track. The Nuggets right now are
Speaker 1: plus six fifty to win the Western Conference plus fourteen
Speaker 1: hundred to win the NBA Championship. Number eight the New
Speaker 1: York Knicks disappointing loss in the n Season Tournament quarterfly
Speaker 1: quarterfinal game. Completely they lost control of Atlanta in the
Speaker 1: third quarter. They got going in transition, they got going
Speaker 1: on the offensive glass, The momentum just like completely shifted.
Speaker 1: Then Trey just started picking them apart in the half
Speaker 1: court in ball screens, and then the Knicks entered a
Speaker 1: funk on offense, missed a bunch of open shots, and
Speaker 1: they never regained control. They really struggled to keep them
Speaker 1: off the offensive glass. In that fourth quarter stretch when
Speaker 1: they were trying to make a run, they gave up
Speaker 1: nine offensive rebounds. It was a really interesting example of
Speaker 1: basketball momentum. Synergy has this graph where they just basically
Speaker 1: show like a bar graph that kind of works across
Speaker 1: from the start to the finish of the game, and
Speaker 1: as the lead shifts, the bar, like if you know,
Speaker 1: if New York's up five, to the bar will be
Speaker 1: a little five point bar up top, but if if
Speaker 1: they go down five, it'll be, you know, a five
Speaker 1: point bar on the bottom. To the colors of those teams,
Speaker 1: And it was such an interesting visual example of the
Speaker 1: shift in momentum because like, the Knicks just completely had
Speaker 1: control of the game for two and a half quarters,
Speaker 1: like it was all blue, and then suddenly it was
Speaker 1: just like a hard shift to red and then it
Speaker 1: was all read the rest of the way. It was
Speaker 1: like really bizarre to see just that visual representation of
Speaker 1: the gigantic shift in momentum the Knicks were playing really
Speaker 1: good basketball, but just a couple of plays like that's
Speaker 1: the thing.
Speaker 2: Plays can snowball.
Speaker 1: A couple guys, make a couple of steals, get out
Speaker 1: and transition couple layups. That sets your defense. You start
Speaker 1: to get a little lively. Then you get stuck in
Speaker 1: the half court. But Tray rescues you. A few times
Speaker 1: the Knicks start missing some shots. It can it can
Speaker 1: spin out of control pretty quickly for you. And that
Speaker 1: was a classic example of that. But the next day
Speaker 1: get a nice bounce back win in Orlando in a
Speaker 1: game where Jalen Suggs, who had been killing everybody, finally
Speaker 1: came back to earth. On offense, the Knicks are eleven
Speaker 1: and four in their last fifteen games. They're still the
Speaker 1: number one offense in the league. Over that span, they're
Speaker 1: up to fifteenth in defense. The defensive rebounding issues that
Speaker 1: came up in the Atlanta game are a bit of
Speaker 1: a trend. They were seventh in defensive rebounding in their
Speaker 1: first eleven games. They're twentieth in defensive rebounding in their
Speaker 1: last fifth team games. So just something to keep an
Speaker 1: eye on there. They're not competing on the glass as
Speaker 1: well as they did the knickstar plus four point fifty
Speaker 1: to win the Eastern Conference plus one thousand to win
Speaker 1: the NBA Championship. Number seven the Memphis Grizzlies just two
Speaker 1: games last week. They beat the Brooklyn Nets and talked
Speaker 1: a bunch of shit while doing it. That was the
Speaker 1: Jordi Fernandez Ja Moran show.
Speaker 2: That we saw.
Speaker 1: But then they got beat wire to wire by the Lakers.
Speaker 1: Didn't take a single lead in that game. John Moran
Speaker 1: had a really hard time with the Max Christy Anthony
Speaker 1: Davis duo. He had twelve made field goals and assists,
Speaker 1: twenty two missed field goals in turnovers. Really really tough
Speaker 1: game for Jaw. The jump shot was the issue. He
Speaker 1: was just two for nine on jump shots against the Lakers.
Speaker 1: He's shooting just twenty nine percent this year off the
Speaker 1: dribble on jump shots, which is making it a lot
Speaker 1: easier for teams to not have to come up to
Speaker 1: the level or have to worry about him. The Lakers
Speaker 1: did a lot of work at the level with him
Speaker 1: last night, but you don't have to worry about Jaw
Speaker 1: knocking down shots at balls in ball screens from the
Speaker 1: perimeter and that is allowed, showing teams more defensive flexibility
Speaker 1: with their scheme again shooting just twenty nine percent this
Speaker 1: year on off the dribble jump shots. The Lakers have
Speaker 1: their roster limitations, but they did a good job of
Speaker 1: keeping either Max or Cam Reddish or gave Vincent on
Speaker 1: him all night with either Anthony Davis or Christian Caloco
Speaker 1: waiting on him at the rim. And the Grizzly still
Speaker 1: have some spacing issues there are just twenty fifth overall
Speaker 1: on the season and spot up efficiency. Last night they
Speaker 1: had thirty two spot up opportunities against the Lakers and
Speaker 1: they converted them to just nineteen points. So that's the
Speaker 1: one big red flag with Memphis right now is they
Speaker 1: can still bog down a little bit on offense from
Speaker 1: time to time when teams packed the paint because of
Speaker 1: their inability to convert spot up possessions. That game against
Speaker 1: the Lakers last night was a good example of that.
Speaker 1: The Grizzlies right now plus fourteen hundred to win the
Speaker 1: Western Conference, plus three thousand to win an NBA title,
Speaker 1: And for Lakers fans who are listening and wondering where
Speaker 1: I'm at with the Lakers after last night, good win.
Speaker 1: They'll have any more good wins this year. They may
Speaker 1: even have some streaks of good wins. But for this team,
Speaker 1: it's not about what they can be when they're at
Speaker 1: their best. It's about their commitment to the work on
Speaker 1: a daily basis over the months it would take to
Speaker 1: build the habits necessary for this roster to be a
Speaker 1: great team, and I just don't think that this group
Speaker 1: is up to the task mentally. For example, their next
Speaker 1: six games they're at Sacramento, at Sacramento again, home for
Speaker 1: Detroit at Golden State, and then home for Sacramento and
Speaker 1: home for Cleveland. If they commit to the work, they
Speaker 1: might be okay. Last night was another one of those
Speaker 1: two or three games I've seen from the Lakers this
Speaker 1: year where they look super connected and committed on defense.
Speaker 1: They've also been running some more traditional at the level
Speaker 1: coverages in ball screens instead of switching, which is a
Speaker 1: good idea. I don't think this roster is really the
Speaker 1: right type of roster for switching, but more often than
Speaker 1: not this year, they have not been willing to do
Speaker 1: that work on the defensive end of the floor, and
Speaker 1: I don't think they'll do it in the next few weeks.
Speaker 1: These are some tough matchups on the road against some
Speaker 1: teams that are a lot more athletic on the perimeter,
Speaker 1: which is a specific weakness for the A serious and
Speaker 1: committed Lakers team would probably go four and two in
Speaker 1: this stretch. They probably split the Sacramento games on the road,
Speaker 1: and they'd probably win all of the home games. I
Speaker 1: think it's more likely that they go two and four
Speaker 1: in the six game stretch. My guess is that they
Speaker 1: drop both games in Sacramento. My guess is they lose
Speaker 1: in Golden State. My guess is they lose at home
Speaker 1: to Cleveland. Maybe they get Sacramento at home, and then
Speaker 1: they probably will get Detroit at home. But like that's
Speaker 1: just how I feel because in order to go win
Speaker 1: all of these games on the road against tough, fast,
Speaker 1: perimeter teams like that, they need to be sharp and
Speaker 1: committed on defense. And it's just something I haven't seen
Speaker 1: this year, but we'll see. My belief in this team
Speaker 1: is completely lost, you know, Like you watched last night
Speaker 1: and it's like Ad is kicking the shit out of
Speaker 1: Jaron Jackson and Lebron is engaged in flying around making
Speaker 1: plays on both ends, and Austin Reeves is back and
Speaker 1: he's out playing Desmond Baane like straight up. It all
Speaker 1: looks good, but I'm not falling for it again. Number
Speaker 1: six The Houston Rockets. We hit them in the opening segment,
Speaker 1: so I won't hit them again. But the Rockets right
Speaker 1: now are plus twenty two hundred to win the Western Conference,
Speaker 1: plus sixty five hundred to win the NBA title. The
Speaker 1: Milwaukee Bucks, we also hit them in the opening segment,
Speaker 1: so I won't hit them again. The Bucks are plus
Speaker 1: eight hundred to win the Eastern Conference, plus eighteen hundred
Speaker 1: to win the NBA Finals.
Speaker 2: Number four the Dallas Mavericks.
Speaker 1: Really disappointing loss in the n Season Tournament quarterfinals to
Speaker 1: Oklahoma City, But I was actually impressed by Dallas in
Speaker 1: that performance. I know it sounds crazy to say, but
Speaker 1: I really poured over the film in that one. I
Speaker 1: did a full film session on that game. You can
Speaker 1: find that in our feed. It's labeled Western Conference Finals Preview.
Speaker 1: I think it was like thirty seven clips from that
Speaker 1: game where I went into extensive detail. But I thought
Speaker 1: Dallas handled Oklahoma City's blitzes and their doubles really well.
Speaker 2: They just completely botched the game. In their own backcourt.
Speaker 1: They gave up countless offensive rebounds, a lot of turnovers
Speaker 1: before they even got the ball across half court, like
Speaker 1: turnovers on outlet passes, turnovers on kickhead passes, turnovers just
Speaker 1: bringing the ball down after rebounds and not paying attention
Speaker 1: to what was happening after them. I saw someone say
Speaker 1: on Twitter, like that's just what Oklahoma City does, and yeah,
Speaker 1: that's true. But Oklahoma City averages ten offensive rebounds and
Speaker 1: twenty three points off of turnovers per game. They gave
Speaker 1: up seventeen offensive rebounds and thirty six points off of
Speaker 1: turnovers per game. So you clean that up. I'm not
Speaker 1: saying you're gonna hold him to zero and zero, but
Speaker 1: you clean that up a little bit. You have a
Speaker 1: bigger lead in the first half, you're more well positioned
Speaker 1: to withstand a scoring onslot like what you saw from
Speaker 1: Shay to start that third quarter, and.
Speaker 2: Maybe you win that game.
Speaker 1: And then Dallas bounced back with a super impressive road
Speaker 1: win in Golden State against the Warriors. They put up
Speaker 1: one hundred and forty three points. They jumped them right
Speaker 1: off the bat. They had eighty one in the first half,
Speaker 1: really strangled Golden State's offense. In the starting group, they
Speaker 1: outscored the Golden State's starting lineup by eighteen points.
Speaker 2: As a kind of.
Speaker 1: A butt kicking starters vers starters, Luca goes for a
Speaker 1: preposterous forty five points, eleven rebounds and thirteen assists, Six
Speaker 1: guys scoring double figures. Nice little revenge game for Klay Thompson.
Speaker 1: He goes for a season high twenty nine, a lot
Speaker 1: of damage just on skip passes, in ball screens and
Speaker 1: in transition when the Warriors were losing him. The Warriors
Speaker 1: on multiple occasions made pushes and got the game close,
Speaker 1: only for Dallas to immediately pull away. I still think
Speaker 1: that's the second best team in the Western Conference, if
Speaker 1: you agree with me. The Mavericks right now are plus
Speaker 1: five point fifty to win the conference and plus eleven
Speaker 1: hundred to win the NBA title. Number three the Boston Celtics.
Speaker 1: Just two games last week, blowouts of the Wizards and
Speaker 1: the Pistons, all really balanced. They had six guys in
Speaker 1: double figures against Detroit, seven guys in double figures against Washington.
Speaker 1: Peyton Pritchard had a really nice game against the Troy.
Speaker 1: He went for twenty seven, just cruising through kind of
Speaker 1: an easy stretch of their schedule. The only weird thing
Speaker 1: is is that Jason Tatum's jumpers cooled way off again,
Speaker 1: and his last nine games he's twenty five points, ten rebounds,
Speaker 1: five assists, forty four percent from the field twenty nine
Speaker 1: percent from three. On the season. Now he's down to
Speaker 1: zero point nine to five points per pull up jump
Speaker 1: shot one point zero two points per jump shot. Overall,
Speaker 1: those are both just barely up from where he was
Speaker 1: last year, but important context, he was dealing with a
Speaker 1: knee injury missed some games. When your knees aren't right,
Speaker 1: it affects your ability to Like a jump shot is
Speaker 1: not just a flip of the wrist. A jump shot
Speaker 1: is a transfer of energy from the floor starting with
Speaker 1: your feet all the way through the snap of your wrist.
Speaker 1: And if your knees bothering you and you're not getting
Speaker 1: the same level of lyft on your jump shot, it
Speaker 1: throws the entire equation at a whack. And I personally
Speaker 1: feel like, whenever I don't have my legs underneath me,
Speaker 1: it's harder to shoot. Everybody who's ever played basketball knows
Speaker 1: exactly what I'm talking about, So like I more of
Speaker 1: the opinion that this is mostly having to do with
Speaker 1: the knee, and then over the next couple of weeks
Speaker 1: here Tatum will probably just go back to being blazing
Speaker 1: hot and get his numbers back up where they were.
Speaker 1: But just kind of a weird trend again in the
Speaker 1: power rankings, I've had the Celtics lower, but to me,
Speaker 1: I still think they're a clear cut number one. I
Speaker 1: was watching Okay see Houston yesterday and then I've watched
Speaker 1: a bit of it yesterday and a bit of it
Speaker 1: this morning. The the Thunder still takes so many stupid shots.
Speaker 1: They still do. There's still just a lot of young players.
Speaker 1: They have a lot of guys on the floor like
Speaker 1: j dub Is still a little like this, Lou dort
Speaker 1: is a little like this. They have some guys that
Speaker 1: will just go off script and just take a bad
Speaker 1: shot from time to time, especially when the situation doesn't
Speaker 1: call for it. I still think I trust Boston's execution
Speaker 1: better in a playoff series. That is why, despite the
Speaker 1: fact that I think the Thunder had been playing some
Speaker 1: really really good basketball, potentially even better basketball than Boston
Speaker 1: within the context of the regular season, I still think
Speaker 1: that Boston is the safest bet to win the title
Speaker 1: by a pretty decent margin if you agree with me.
Speaker 1: The Celtics right now are plus one oh five to
Speaker 1: win the conference and plus two forty to win the
Speaker 1: NBA title. Number two the Cleveland Cavaliers just one game
Speaker 1: last week, a win over the Wizards at home. Donovan Mitchell,
Speaker 1: Darius Garland, and Jared Allen all go for twenty plus points.
Speaker 1: There has been some slippage for the Cavs on offense
Speaker 1: as of late. So the Calves are just five and
Speaker 1: three in their last eight games, eleventh in offense over
Speaker 1: that span. Remember they're in the number one offense in
Speaker 1: the league over the large sample. They're getting beat pretty
Speaker 1: good on the glass over that span. They're twenty fourth
Speaker 1: in rebounding. Remember that was an issue that popped up
Speaker 1: periodically in the past, especially in the playoffs. Just something
Speaker 1: to keep an eye on. They have the Bucks this
Speaker 1: week and then a really fun road trip at the
Speaker 1: end of the month that I've had my eye on
Speaker 1: for a while as an opportunity to learn more about
Speaker 1: the Calves, Like I really want to learn more about
Speaker 1: the Calves, not as to whether or not they're good.
Speaker 1: I know the Calves are good. I want to learn
Speaker 1: about how close they are to Boston, and in order
Speaker 1: to see that, we need to see them play a
Speaker 1: consistent stretch of tough opponents. And they've had the third
Speaker 1: easiest schedule in the league to start the season. At
Speaker 1: the end of this month, they go to Denver, to
Speaker 1: Golden State, to the Lakers, into the Mavericks in a
Speaker 1: four game set. That's going to be a great opportunity
Speaker 1: for us to see the Calves in a bunch of
Speaker 1: disadvantageous situations in terms of travel and rest and crowd
Speaker 1: obviously with being on the road, That'll be a great
Speaker 1: opportunity for us to give a better evaluation to this roster.
Speaker 1: The Caves right now are plus seven hundred to win
Speaker 1: the Eastern Conference and plus seventeen hundred to win the
Speaker 1: NBA Finals.
Speaker 2: Number one the Oklahoma City Thunder.
Speaker 1: We covered them at the top of the show, so
Speaker 1: I won't go into any further detail here, but the
Speaker 1: gist of it is why I put them number one
Speaker 1: is simple. I think they're playing the best basketball in
Speaker 1: the NBA right now within the context of the regular season,
Speaker 1: in this stretch where they've won nine out of ten.
Speaker 1: They have beat Houston comfortably, Dallas comfortably, as well as
Speaker 1: Golden State, Sacramento, and the Lakers all on the road.
Speaker 1: Just a really, really impressive stretch of hoops. Right now,
Speaker 1: the thunder are plus one eighty to win the conference,
Speaker 1: plus three sixty to win the NBA title. Boston and
Speaker 1: Oklahoma City really starting to separate themselves from the rest
Speaker 1: of the league. Again, all of these odds are provided
Speaker 1: by our partner DraftKings. As always, I sincerely appreciate you
Speaker 1: guys for supporting me and supporting the show. We'll be
Speaker 1: back tomorrow, really fun slate tonight, So we'll be back
Speaker 1: tomorrow with some game reactions as well as some film
Speaker 1: and then we'll be out of here and then we'll
Speaker 1: be out of there for that. So I think this
Speaker 1: this week, the schedule is a little weird because I
Speaker 1: don't think there's any games on Wednesday, So we're gonna
Speaker 1: get together with the Nerd Sash guys and we'll cover
Speaker 1: basically basically, the plan for this week is we're gonna
Speaker 1: go Tomorrow covering the Monday slate, Wednesday covering the INN
Speaker 1: Season Tournament championship game, and then I'm gonna record with
Speaker 1: the Nerds and we'll run that at the tail end
Speaker 1: of the week because of the again, only one game
Speaker 1: total between Tuesday and Wednesday night, so it's gonna get
Speaker 1: a little funky with the schedule, but we'll have plenty
Speaker 1: of content coming out again. So all I have for today,
Speaker 1: as always, sincerely appreciate you guys for supporting me and
Speaker 1: supporting the show.
Speaker 2: I'll see you tomorrow.
Speaker 1: Money the volume