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Speaker 1: It's the big take from Blueberg News and I Heart Radio.

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Speaker 1: I'm West Gasova Today. Inflation prices for everything keep going up.

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Speaker 1: How are we going to get out of this? It's

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Speaker 1: a little after eleven AM at the Rose Avenue Bakery

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Speaker 1: in downtown Washington, d C. And the morning rush is

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Speaker 1: finally easing up. An hour ago this place was packed

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Speaker 1: with customers here for the bakery, especially doughnuts and cookies

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Speaker 1: and of course coffee. Now the bakers are moving fast,

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Speaker 1: prepping afternoon orders and getting ready to do it again tomorrow.

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Speaker 1: So Jen and Tania are portioning out our black sesame

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Speaker 1: cookies their way to eight grams, and then they roll

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Speaker 1: them to make the swirl. This is like our cake

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Speaker 1: decorating station. We're whipping up some Swiss maring butter cream

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Speaker 1: to some Ube coconut cakes. That's Paula Wang. She's a

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Speaker 1: co owner of Rose Avenue. Now that COVID is no

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Speaker 1: longer front and center and the bakery is open to

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Speaker 1: the public again, she says they often sell up. All

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Speaker 1: the bakers are here very early in the morning just

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Speaker 1: so we can make everything fresh for the day and

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Speaker 1: then um we're open until sell out or two PM.

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Speaker 1: Sellout more time. You usually sell out between twelve and one.

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Speaker 1: It really depends on the day Saturday, as early as noon.

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Speaker 1: But like businesses everywhere, the bakery has struggled to keep

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Speaker 1: up with inflation that's made just about everything more expensive.

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Speaker 1: I asked Paula what it's like keeping a small business

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Speaker 1: afloat during chaotic times like this. We were only open

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Speaker 1: two days and then yeah, and then we had to

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Speaker 1: close everything down. We started doing pre orders maybe around July.

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Speaker 1: It was really just a pickup system to keep our

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Speaker 1: staff safe and customer states. And then as both got

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Speaker 1: more and more comfortable to come in, we expanded the

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Speaker 1: preorder system to two more days. And we were in

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Speaker 1: that preorder limbo for almost half a year. So here

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Speaker 1: you are, business is good and then comes inflation. What's

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Speaker 1: that been like? When did you start noticing things were

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Speaker 1: starting to free up costwise? Unfortunately, it was simultaneous with

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Speaker 1: us trying to open for more days that we started noticing,

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Speaker 1: oh man, you know, the cost of eggs and milk

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Speaker 1: and all these things are starting to increase and we

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Speaker 1: need those. That's like the basis of our ingredients, eggs, milk,

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Speaker 1: dairy butter, you know, it's it's a struggle every week

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Speaker 1: looking at prices. My partner and I actually kind of

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Speaker 1: combine like where we order from, and we see where

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Speaker 1: we can get the cheapest things from, like, for example, um,

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Speaker 1: even scallions. Uh, you know you could you could have

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Speaker 1: bought scallions, a whole bunch of scallions from maybe like

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Speaker 1: less than a dollar, but now maybe like three or

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Speaker 1: four pieces to go for a dollar fifty. And we

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Speaker 1: use scallions and most of our savory items. So that's

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Speaker 1: something we even physically go out to like Asian markets,

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Speaker 1: local Asian markets and buy from because buying in bulk

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Speaker 1: from a distributor is so expensive. Have you been able

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Speaker 1: to negotiate better prices or as a small business, you

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Speaker 1: do not have that kind of leverage. Because our relationships

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Speaker 1: with our distributes are a little new, it's hard to

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Speaker 1: have leverage. What we've been doing is seeing what is

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Speaker 1: super expensive and kind of tailoring our menu to what

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Speaker 1: we can afford to make our mass produce. If that

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Speaker 1: means we have to take something off the menu temporarily

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Speaker 1: because the item is so expensive to make, then we

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Speaker 1: kind of just have to do that. What have you

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Speaker 1: taken off the menu. Recently, something that's gone up um

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Speaker 1: use you Pure that went from like twenty dollars to

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Speaker 1: for a thousand grahams to a hundred dollars for US

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Speaker 1: thousand graphs of you superre. So we had to take

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Speaker 1: off this very popular use you croissant because we just

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Speaker 1: cannot afford to make use your card. Let me ask

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Speaker 1: you about employees. Obviously, we've seen as the economy has

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Speaker 1: gone through tightening, prices are increasing, a lot of places

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Speaker 1: are having trouble retaining their talent. How has that affected you?

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Speaker 1: What are you doing about? What have you seen in

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Speaker 1: your own workforce? In our particular bakery, one of the

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Speaker 1: things that we really want to focus on is retention

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Speaker 1: with our employees and making them feel like they're valued here.

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Speaker 1: So with our full time stuff, we really want to

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Speaker 1: pay them a livable wage. So no matter if that's

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Speaker 1: something that's increased because of inflation, we will always try

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Speaker 1: to meet it. So if it cuts through our profits

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Speaker 1: as an owner, then it just cuts through our profits

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Speaker 1: as an owner. We believe in making sure that our

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Speaker 1: employees can you live in the city if they need to,

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Speaker 1: that that they have the benefits that allow them to

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Speaker 1: live a comfortable life, you know, and have you been

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Speaker 1: able to retain people? Are you finding that people are

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Speaker 1: sticking around? Yeah, full time employees. Retention has been great,

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Speaker 1: to be honest, we haven't had the problem of losing

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Speaker 1: people for because of money or whatever reasons. You mentioned

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Speaker 1: that you're raising pay in order to kind of meet

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Speaker 1: the moment, have you had to raise the price of

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Speaker 1: your bake goods. Yes, so we did raise prices twice

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Speaker 1: during the pandemic. Like what did a donut cost when

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Speaker 1: you open versus now? Um? Yeah, when we first started,

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Speaker 1: we were charging for we're talking some donuts, and now

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Speaker 1: they're five dollars on average. It really depends what goes

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Speaker 1: into the donut. We don't want to go any more

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Speaker 1: than that because it kind of seems through duduous to

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Speaker 1: pay for like a six dollar donut. We actually made

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Speaker 1: an announcement on our social media when we did the

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Speaker 1: first price change, just to keep everybody in the loop

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Speaker 1: that we're not trying to, you know, sell expensive genuts.

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Speaker 1: It's just costs more to make them, unfortunately, and you know,

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Speaker 1: the things that we need to make the donuts, like

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Speaker 1: eggs and milk and butter have been one of the

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Speaker 1: hartists hit items during inflation. So when you look into

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Speaker 1: the future and you know we have this high inflation

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Speaker 1: time right now, can you weather this out as long

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Speaker 1: as it last or do you worry at some point

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Speaker 1: that that it's just gonna start to have a bad effect. Well,

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Speaker 1: we do worry, but we hope to weather the storm

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Speaker 1: with the support of our community and our customers. We

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Speaker 1: have a lot of loyal customers who have been buying

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Speaker 1: since it was just pre orders, and you know, I

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Speaker 1: think it helps to be honest with the customer as well.

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Speaker 1: We had a lot of great feedback when we first

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Speaker 1: had to tell everybody that we had to raise the prices.

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Speaker 1: Everybody said, raise them however you however much you need to,

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Speaker 1: so you don't close. And we love we loved hearing

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Speaker 1: that because we were so worried that everybody was going

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Speaker 1: to be upset. But actually people really came together and

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Speaker 1: supported our change for prices. So why has inflation hit

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Speaker 1: so hard and how long will we be suffering with it?

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg's chief economist Tom or Lick has answers after the break.

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Speaker 1: I'm here with Tom Or Like Bloomberg's chief economists, Tom,

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Speaker 1: thanks for being here. Great to be. It was Tom.

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Speaker 1: We were just talking to some people at a local

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Speaker 1: bakery in d C. And they were talking about how

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Speaker 1: prices are rising for everything and the challenges they have

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Speaker 1: with keeping employees and all the other things that come

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Speaker 1: to running a business in a time of high inflation.

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Speaker 1: We're are feeling it too, no matter what we do.

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Speaker 1: Can you just start out by letting us know, what

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Speaker 1: is the city of the U. S Academy now as

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Speaker 1: an academies When you look at it, what do you see?

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Speaker 1: So inflation is still really high? Was and I think

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Speaker 1: it's interesting to think about how we got to where

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Speaker 1: we are. One way of framing it is to think

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Speaker 1: about the current inflation being suffered in the US is

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Speaker 1: coming from two different sources. On the one hand, you've

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Speaker 1: got shocks to labor markets, not enough workers, too many openings,

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Speaker 1: and that's driving wages higher. And when wages go higher,

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Speaker 1: households have more money to spend, and that pushes up prices.

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Speaker 1: The other big driver of inflation it's been really important

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Speaker 1: for the last couple of years, is shocks to specific

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Speaker 1: sectors of the economy. So that's all the stuff that

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Speaker 1: happened to semiconductors, when supply chains jammed up as a

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Speaker 1: result of COVID lockdowns, all the stuff that's happened to

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Speaker 1: gas and other energy as a result of Russia's invasion

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Speaker 1: of Ukraine, and of course we're talking supply chain that

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Speaker 1: has been up ended through the COVID crisis, and now

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Speaker 1: indeed we see potentially even you're Russia Ukraine adding to

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Speaker 1: some of those supply chain issues, Noble gases key of

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Speaker 1: course to the chip sector. And it's these two drivers together,

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Speaker 1: the tightness in labor markets pushing up wages, and the

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Speaker 1: shocks to particular sectors like semiconductors and energy and agriculture

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Speaker 1: coming together which have pushed US inflation up to these

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Speaker 1: astronomical levels. So let me ask you a very basic question,

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Speaker 1: why is high inflation a problem other than things casting more.

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Speaker 1: You can imagine a world where all prices and all

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Speaker 1: wages go up quickly together, So all the prices in

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Speaker 1: the economy and everybody's wage goes up ten percent every year,

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Speaker 1: and it's kind of weird, and maybe every few years

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Speaker 1: we need to drop a zero off the denomination of

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Speaker 1: our bank notes. But because everything is moving in exactly

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Speaker 1: the same pace, it's not really a big problem, and

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Speaker 1: fortunately that's not how things play out when inflation takes off.

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Speaker 1: Often you have inflation accelerating ahead of wages. Often you

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Speaker 1: have different prices moving in different directions, and that creates

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Speaker 1: a bunch of different problems. Imagine the household which is

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Speaker 1: facing a teen percent increase in their grocery bills and

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Speaker 1: their gas bills and their rent, but their wages are

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Speaker 1: not keeping up. They're going to be suffering. Imagine the

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Speaker 1: small business owner which is operating in a competitive market.

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Speaker 1: They're facing competition from Starbucks or Amazon, so they can't

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Speaker 1: raise their prices, but their workers are all leaving because

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Speaker 1: they can get more wages elsewhere. That small business is

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Speaker 1: going to have a problem. And these are the sort

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Speaker 1: of reasons why economists think low and stable inflation is

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Speaker 1: a kind of a fundamental good, the fundamental basis which

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Speaker 1: is required to keep the economy growing. We've heard how

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Speaker 1: wages are rising because employers have to pay more in

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Speaker 1: order to retain and recruit people in a tight labor market,

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Speaker 1: But those wages have not kept up with inflation. So

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Speaker 1: how is it that so many people are sitting out

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Speaker 1: of the labor market when prices are high? And wages,

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Speaker 1: though higher, aren't keeping up. So when you have a

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Speaker 1: really really big shock, and the COVID pandemic was a

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Speaker 1: really really big shock, then you can get some big

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Speaker 1: adjustments in the economy. And I think we're seeing those

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Speaker 1: playing out in the labor market. And I'm not sure

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Speaker 1: anyone has a kind of a perfect handle on what

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Speaker 1: all the factors are and the magnitude of their impact

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Speaker 1: and how long the impact is going to last. But

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Speaker 1: I think you've got people reconsidering their priorities, people thinking,

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Speaker 1: you know what, life short, I don't want to work

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Speaker 1: so much. I want to spend more time with my family.

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Speaker 1: You've got a reorganization of the economy. Firms which were

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Speaker 1: kind of really successful pre COVID not so successful post COVID.

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Speaker 1: Other firms which weren't doing so well before the pandemic

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Speaker 1: now doing better. And that shift in the kind of

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Speaker 1: the structure of the economy also means a shift in

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Speaker 1: where workers are needed and what type of workers are needed.

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Speaker 1: And then you've got specific factors like people being sick

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Speaker 1: because of COVID, people suffering from long COVID, people deciding,

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Speaker 1: you know what, I'm vulnerable. I'm the kind of person

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Speaker 1: who gets sick easily and doesn't recover quickly. I don't

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Speaker 1: want to risk going into the labor market right now

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Speaker 1: and then other people just losing their jobs and finding

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Speaker 1: it difficult to get back into the game. So I

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Speaker 1: think all of these factors are at work. They're all

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Speaker 1: restricting labor supply. And when you combine restrictions on labor

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Speaker 1: supply with strong demand for workers, that's when you get

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Speaker 1: a lot of pressure for wages to rise, and that

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Speaker 1: contributes to the problem with inflation that we have right now.

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Speaker 1: A lot of the things you're describing are happening in

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Speaker 1: the US. Are we seeing the exact same thing happening

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Speaker 1: elsewhere in the world? Eight point nine is the inflation

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Speaker 1: right now for the Eurozone, we have higher than expected

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Speaker 1: Japanese inflation with the first time inflation has hit double

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Speaker 1: digits in forty years. Inflationary pressures are also moving beyond

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Speaker 1: energy into food costs. So that framing that we used

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Speaker 1: to understand what's happening in the United States inflation that

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Speaker 1: comes partly from really tight labor markets pushing up wages,

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Speaker 1: and partly from shocks to specific sectors like oil or semiconductors.

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Speaker 1: That's also a useful frame for thinking about inflation globally.

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Speaker 1: So if we turn to Europe, Europe's got really high inflation,

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Speaker 1: higher than the United States right now, but it's coming

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Speaker 1: from different sources. They don't have the tight labor markets

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Speaker 1: pushing up wages in Europe. What they do have is

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Speaker 1: really severe shocks to specific sectors, and of course is

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Speaker 1: no mystery where that's coming from. It's Vladimir Putin and

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Speaker 1: Russia's invasion of Ukraine and Russia turning off the gas

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Speaker 1: to Europe, which is pushing energy prices up really high.

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Speaker 1: A lot of the discussion we hear about inflation is

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Speaker 1: how it's difficult to find workers. Why isn't there more

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Speaker 1: discussion about how corporate profits are very high when some

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Speaker 1: of those profits could, at least notionally be used to

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Speaker 1: pay people a higher wage. This idea that louging corporations

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Speaker 1: are a big contributor to the inflation that we have

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Speaker 1: right now is an idea that's kind of percolating in

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Speaker 1: the debate, and it's one you hear very often from

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Speaker 1: the left side of the political spectrum. You hear it

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Speaker 1: from Senator Elizabeth Warren, for example, attacking the problem of

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Speaker 1: price gouging by saying, to giant corporations that have more

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Speaker 1: than a billion dollars in profits, you're going to have

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Speaker 1: to pay. And the argument goes something like this, corporate

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Speaker 1: power is so concentrated now, the big corporations in agriculture,

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Speaker 1: in energy, in technology, in retail, they own so much

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Speaker 1: of the market that they're immune to competitive pressures. And

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Speaker 1: what that means is that they can jack up prices

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Speaker 1: without having other firms jump in and steal their market share.

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Speaker 1: So the argument in favor of this view focuses on

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Speaker 1: the market power of big corporations and how that's increased

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Speaker 1: over time, and it also looks at things like the

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Speaker 1: announcements by big companies. If you listen in on the

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Speaker 1: earnings calls of big companies over the last few months,

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Speaker 1: you hear chief executives who are positively gleeful about their

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Speaker 1: capacity to raise prices and raise profits. The argument against

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Speaker 1: the idea that concentration of market power is a big

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Speaker 1: contributor to high inflation is basically, well, why now, market power?

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Speaker 1: The enormous size of the big firms in agriculture and

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Speaker 1: energy and retail and tech is not a new phenomenon.

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Speaker 1: So why is it suddenly a big contributor to inflation

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Speaker 1: when it hasn't been a big contributor to inflation in

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Speaker 1: the past. One of the arguments, I guess I've heard

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Speaker 1: is that companies are raising prices the inflation and using

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Speaker 1: inflation as an excuse for raising prices. That's the liberal argument, right.

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Speaker 1: The market power was there before, but what we're now

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Speaker 1: seeing is big firms kind of seizing the moment, seizing

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Speaker 1: the opportunity when all of these prices are rising to

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Speaker 1: kind of gauge the consumer and boost their profits and

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Speaker 1: add to problems for American households. And J Powell as

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Speaker 1: he attempts to bring inflation under control. J Powe, of course,

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Speaker 1: the chairman of the Federal Reserve, and we're going to

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Speaker 1: talk about him in just a minute. So when you

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Speaker 1: look at this argument on one side or the other

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Speaker 1: of this, as an economist, what do you think are

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Speaker 1: the biggest drivers of inflation? Is it on the labor side,

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Speaker 1: is it on the private side, is it something else?

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Speaker 1: I think there's been an evolution of factors. Right um.

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Speaker 1: At the beginning of the pandemic, it was all about

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Speaker 1: the shocks to specific sectors. It was the lack of semiconductors,

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Speaker 1: which meant it was hard to produce new automobiles, and

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Speaker 1: so automobile prices rose really high, and that pushed up inflation.

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Speaker 1: But then we had the massive fiscal stimulus in the

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Speaker 1: United States, and what that did was drove very very

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Speaker 1: strong demand, and that then meant there was a kind

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Speaker 1: of handoff in the drivers of inflation from shocks to

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Speaker 1: specific actors like semiconductors, to the kind of inflation that

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Speaker 1: we get when labor markets are tight and wages arising quickly.

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Speaker 1: And then Rusha's invasion of Ukraine brought the industry specific

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Speaker 1: shocks back into the picture. Russia's invasion of Ukraine pushed

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Speaker 1: commodity prices higher, and that gave another lag to the

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Speaker 1: inflation story. After the break, my conversation with Tom Orlick continues,

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Speaker 1: I'd like to take this opportunity to speak directly to

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Speaker 1: the American people. Inflation is much too high, and we

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Speaker 1: understand the hardship it is causing, and we're moving expeditiously

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Speaker 1: to bring it back down. We have both the tools

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Speaker 1: we need and the resolve that it will take to

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Speaker 1: restore price stability. On behalf of American families and businesses.

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Speaker 1: Time you've spelled out where we are and how we

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Speaker 1: got here, and now comes the big question, what do

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Speaker 1: we do about it? How does inflation eventually get under control?

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Speaker 1: So let's come back to our sort of initial framing

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Speaker 1: of inflation as coming partly from shocks to labor markets,

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Speaker 1: pushing up wages, and partly from shocks to specific sectors.

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Speaker 1: Most of the tools which policy makers have for bringing

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Speaker 1: inflation under control are focused on the first one of

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Speaker 1: those drivers. Central banks, the Federal Reserve, the European Central

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Speaker 1: Bank raise interest rates, that makes it more expensive to borrow.

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Speaker 1: That chokes off demand in the economy, including demand for workers,

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Speaker 1: and so wage gains start to come down or maybe

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Speaker 1: even stagnate, and that overtime lowest price pressure. So that's

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Speaker 1: the kind of big macro policy tool which economies have

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Speaker 1: to fight inflation, and it's in operation right now. The

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Speaker 1: Fed has already done a bunch of big rate hikes.

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Speaker 1: There's some more still in the pipeline. How about the

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Speaker 1: second driver of inflation, the inflation that comes from shocks

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Speaker 1: to specific sectors. Well there, Unfortunately, the tools that policymakers

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Speaker 1: have are much less comprehensive and much less powerful. So

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Speaker 1: think about the shock from high energy prices. For example,

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Speaker 1: President Biden can open the Strategic Petroleum Reserve and release

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Speaker 1: a bit more energy, but the amount of petroleum in

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Speaker 1: the Strategic Petroleum Reserve isn't that big relative to the

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Speaker 1: size of global energy markets, so that doesn't do much.

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Speaker 1: He can swallow his pride and get on the plane

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Speaker 1: to Saudi Arabia and fist bump MBS and ask him

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Speaker 1: to increase oil supply across the Crown Prince of Saudi

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Speaker 1: hever you're talking about there, We're Biden visited and didn't

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Speaker 1: get much. That trip. Whilst it cost Biden something in

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Speaker 1: terms of diplomacy, didn't deliver much in terms of increasing

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Speaker 1: energy production or bringing energy prices under control. Think about

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Speaker 1: shortages in supply of semiconductors, big driver of inflation earlier

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Speaker 1: in the pandemic. Governments basically don't have any tools to

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Speaker 1: address that problem. In the United States, we think cooling

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Speaker 1: the economy is going to mean the FED has to

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Speaker 1: take interest rates all the way up to five. Cooling

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Speaker 1: the economy is a kind of polite euphemism, and what

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Speaker 1: we actually mean when we say cooling the economy is

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Speaker 1: pushing people into unemployment. Our US economic team thinks that

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Speaker 1: more than two million people are going to join the

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Speaker 1: ranks of the unemployed in the United States in the

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Speaker 1: next two years, directly as a consequence of the Fed's

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Speaker 1: campaign to bring inflation back to its two percent target.

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Speaker 1: Is there a scenario in which the Federal Reserve could

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Speaker 1: bring down inflation in a way that doesn't require so

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Speaker 1: many workers to be fired. There's a kind of an

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Speaker 1: optimistic view on this. It's kind of sometimes referred to

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Speaker 1: as immaculate disinflation, disinflation which takes place without kind of

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Speaker 1: hurting anybody. The idea goes something like this, the inflation

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Speaker 1: that we've got in the last two years is a

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Speaker 1: consequence of a massive and unpredictable shock to the economy,

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Speaker 1: the COVID crisis, the war in Ukraine. The COVID crisis

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Speaker 1: is already kind of receding into memory here in the

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Speaker 1: United States. The war in Ukraine continues, but without the

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Speaker 1: kind of catastrophic impacts on global oil prices that we

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Speaker 1: saw in the first part of two So perhaps the

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Speaker 1: dislocations which caused high inflation will disappear, just as quickly

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Speaker 1: as they arrived, and the FED will be able to

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Speaker 1: get prices back to its two percent target without having

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Speaker 1: to raise interest rates too much further and without having

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Speaker 1: to push too many people into unemployment. That's the kind

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Speaker 1: of the underpinning of the hope for the sort of

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Speaker 1: soft landing which FED chair J Powell says he's aiming for,

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Speaker 1: but acknowledges is going to be difficult to stick. How

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Speaker 1: likely do you think it is that that happens. Our

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Speaker 1: US team has a recession in the second half of

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Speaker 1: three as their base case, so we would see a

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Speaker 1: soft landing and a limited rise in unemployment as a

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Speaker 1: positive risk scenario. Not the most likely thing to happen,

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Speaker 1: and it is the same true in Europe. The situation

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Speaker 1: in Europe is a bit different because so much of

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Speaker 1: inflation in Europe has come from the surge in energy prices.

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Speaker 1: The capacity of the European Central Bank to do anything

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Speaker 1: about it is reduced. The European Central Bank hikes interest rates,

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Speaker 1: that impacts labor markets and wages at the margin that

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Speaker 1: impact energy prices. But really what's determined energy prices is

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Speaker 1: Vladimir Putin and his pipeline and his decision on how

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Speaker 1: much gas to send to Europe. Now, what that means

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Speaker 1: is that whilst we expect the European Central Bank to

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Speaker 1: hike interest rates, we don't expect them to go as

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Speaker 1: far as the federal reserve. Labor markets in Europe also

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Speaker 1: work differently to labor labor markets in the US. In

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Speaker 1: the US we have kind of read in tooth and

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Speaker 1: claw capitalism. The government doesn't want to sort of impede

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Speaker 1: business capacity to hire or fire. And what that means

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Speaker 1: is that as the economy goes up and down, unemployment

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Speaker 1: actually moves quite a lot. In Europe, they have more

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Speaker 1: of a kind of a social contract, and what that

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Speaker 1: means is that there's labor market regulations which make it

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Speaker 1: harder to fire people in the bad times. Of course,

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Speaker 1: the downside of that is businesses are also more reluctant

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Speaker 1: to hire them in the good times, and so the

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Speaker 1: economy goes up and down with a smaller impact on unemployment.

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Speaker 1: We haven't yet touched on other very big academies in Asia,

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Speaker 1: in particular China. How is this impacting China now? China

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Speaker 1: right now doesn't actually have a problem with too much

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Speaker 1: demand and too much inflation. They have the reverse problem.

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Speaker 1: They have a problem with too little demand and their

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Speaker 1: producer prices that's a kind of measure of inflation in

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Speaker 1: the industrial part of the economy, not the consumer part

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Speaker 1: of the economy, are actually falling. That's a reflection of

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Speaker 1: their sticking with COVID zero, which is hammering their growth,

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Speaker 1: and a big downturn which is underway in their property sector. Now,

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Speaker 1: for the rest of the world, this is actually providing

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Speaker 1: a bit of an assist. Think about a world where

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Speaker 1: China is firing on all cylinders and buying huge amounts

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Speaker 1: of energy and buying huge amounts of corn and soybeans.

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Speaker 1: That's a world where commodity prices are much higher than

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Speaker 1: they are right now, and the challenge for the FED

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Speaker 1: and the ECB and bringing inflation under control is harder.

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Speaker 1: So right now, weakness in China giving the best of

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Speaker 1: the world a bit of an assist on their inflation problem.

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Speaker 1: A question looking into three is, well, what happens when

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Speaker 1: China opens up At some point, we think in the

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Speaker 1: second quarter of next year, China is gonna start reducing

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Speaker 1: its COVID zero restrictions. The economy is going to grow

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Speaker 1: more quickly. People are going to be doing more traveling around.

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Speaker 1: It's going to drive stronger global commodity prices for your

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Speaker 1: own Powell at the Federal Reserve and Christine Lagarde at

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Speaker 1: the European Central Bank. What that could mean is that

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Speaker 1: in the middle of three, at exactly the moment where

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Speaker 1: they're kind of what mopping their brow and prepared to

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Speaker 1: take a well deserved break after bringing inflation under control,

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Speaker 1: China reopening actually lights of fire under prices again. And

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Speaker 1: it's that kind of geopolitical dynamic and the potential for

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Speaker 1: shocks happening in China to impact the United States and

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Speaker 1: shocks from the United States to impact the rest of

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Speaker 1: the world. That's going to be the focus of discussion

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Speaker 1: at the Bloomberg New Economy Forum in Singapore this week,

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Speaker 1: and you can see all of the coverage of the

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg New Economy Forum where government leaders corporate executives are

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Speaker 1: gathering to discuss these big issues at Bloomberg dot com.

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Speaker 1: Tom or Look. Always a pleasure to talk to you.

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