1 00:00:00,080 --> 00:00:10,080 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. You're listening to the 2 00:00:10,119 --> 00:00:13,880 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch us live weekdays at 3 00:00:13,920 --> 00:00:17,119 Speaker 1: noon and five pm Eastern on Apple, Cocklay and Android 4 00:00:17,160 --> 00:00:20,520 Speaker 1: Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on demand wherever 5 00:00:20,600 --> 00:00:23,760 Speaker 1: you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube. 6 00:00:25,320 --> 00:00:27,680 Speaker 2: Keeping an eye on both ends of Pennsylvania Avenue and 7 00:00:27,680 --> 00:00:30,240 Speaker 2: where they're intercepting today as a meeting is set to 8 00:00:30,280 --> 00:00:32,960 Speaker 2: take place at the White House between top administration officials, 9 00:00:33,000 --> 00:00:36,960 Speaker 2: including Treasury Secretary Scott Besstt, and leadership on Capitol Hill 10 00:00:36,960 --> 00:00:40,199 Speaker 2: from both chambers, inclusive of House Speaker Mike Johnson, the 11 00:00:40,240 --> 00:00:42,560 Speaker 2: Senate Majority Leader John Thune, as well as the heads 12 00:00:42,800 --> 00:00:47,040 Speaker 2: of the Tax Writing Committee, Senator Mark Crapo and Congressman 13 00:00:47,320 --> 00:00:50,760 Speaker 2: Jason Smith, all there to talk tax cuts and reconciling 14 00:00:50,920 --> 00:00:53,480 Speaker 2: the different ways in which the House and Senate would 15 00:00:53,560 --> 00:00:57,920 Speaker 2: like to see those tax cuts pursued in budget reconciliation. Now, 16 00:00:57,920 --> 00:01:00,560 Speaker 2: we understand there's some gaps to bridge here, although the 17 00:01:00,600 --> 00:01:03,440 Speaker 2: House Speaker Mike Johnson, when talking to reporters earlier today, 18 00:01:03,520 --> 00:01:05,559 Speaker 2: suggested no such gaps exist. 19 00:01:06,920 --> 00:01:09,200 Speaker 3: There's no daylight between House and Senate Republicans. We are 20 00:01:09,280 --> 00:01:12,800 Speaker 3: one team. I speak with Leader Thune about this constantly 21 00:01:13,280 --> 00:01:16,560 Speaker 3: and with individual members of the Senate over there. We're 22 00:01:16,560 --> 00:01:19,160 Speaker 3: all united on the mission, and there's been different ideas 23 00:01:19,160 --> 00:01:21,560 Speaker 3: about how to complete the mission, but I think it's 24 00:01:21,600 --> 00:01:23,920 Speaker 3: all coming together now. This week will be pivotal. 25 00:01:25,040 --> 00:01:28,080 Speaker 4: So let's bring it to a vote. Running Bloomberg's Capital 26 00:01:28,080 --> 00:01:30,800 Speaker 4: influenced team. Megan Scully with her eyes on Capitol Hill 27 00:01:30,800 --> 00:01:32,920 Speaker 4: and joining us now at the table ahead of our 28 00:01:32,920 --> 00:01:35,959 Speaker 4: conversation with Congressman Marlin Stutspin. Meghan, it's great to see you. 29 00:01:36,200 --> 00:01:38,640 Speaker 4: Of course, this is not a layup. This is a 30 00:01:38,720 --> 00:01:41,840 Speaker 4: threading of the needle with some very big issues. We're 31 00:01:41,840 --> 00:01:44,759 Speaker 4: talking again to remind everybody about extending Trump tax cuts, 32 00:01:44,800 --> 00:01:48,120 Speaker 4: potentially lifting the debt limit and doing it all without 33 00:01:48,160 --> 00:01:50,240 Speaker 4: adding to the debt. Is that possible? 34 00:01:50,400 --> 00:01:52,760 Speaker 5: Yeah, maybe if we do some fuzzy math, which is 35 00:01:52,760 --> 00:01:56,320 Speaker 5: what they're recommending, particularly in the Senate, you know, basically 36 00:01:56,360 --> 00:02:01,000 Speaker 5: not counting a renewal of Trump's tax cuts as new cuts, 37 00:02:01,320 --> 00:02:04,560 Speaker 5: basically deficit neutral, so then they can move forward on 38 00:02:04,600 --> 00:02:07,120 Speaker 5: some of the other promises the President has put forth, 39 00:02:07,280 --> 00:02:11,200 Speaker 5: like no taxes on Social Security or no taxes on tips, 40 00:02:11,240 --> 00:02:14,639 Speaker 5: we're getting into that fuzzy math period of these negotiations. 41 00:02:14,760 --> 00:02:18,240 Speaker 5: And while this week will indeed be pivotal, you know, 42 00:02:18,280 --> 00:02:22,520 Speaker 5: with Congress back from a recess, it is just the beginning. 43 00:02:22,560 --> 00:02:25,760 Speaker 5: I mean, we're talking about several months likely ahead in 44 00:02:25,880 --> 00:02:28,320 Speaker 5: terms of negotiations between the two. 45 00:02:28,280 --> 00:02:31,120 Speaker 2: Chambers, even though the Speaker is suggesting he wants to 46 00:02:31,120 --> 00:02:33,119 Speaker 2: see a vote on this done by Memorial Day, which 47 00:02:33,160 --> 00:02:35,520 Speaker 2: is going to be coming up pretty quickly in terms 48 00:02:35,520 --> 00:02:38,359 Speaker 2: of legislative days. Megan, when we consider this notion that 49 00:02:38,800 --> 00:02:42,120 Speaker 2: math may get fuzzy, is math required to be fuzzy 50 00:02:42,160 --> 00:02:44,120 Speaker 2: if the Senate is to get what it wants, which 51 00:02:44,160 --> 00:02:47,040 Speaker 2: is an permanent extension of the twenty seventeen tax cuts 52 00:02:47,120 --> 00:02:50,400 Speaker 2: rather than just an extension, which is what the House 53 00:02:50,480 --> 00:02:51,640 Speaker 2: Plan originally called for. 54 00:02:51,960 --> 00:02:54,440 Speaker 5: So a lot of this actually will come down to 55 00:02:54,480 --> 00:02:58,800 Speaker 5: the Senate parliamentarian, who is not somebody that most Americans 56 00:02:58,840 --> 00:03:02,400 Speaker 5: are familiar with, and she will rule. Elizabeth McDonough is 57 00:03:02,400 --> 00:03:04,720 Speaker 5: her name, and she will roll essentially what is allowed 58 00:03:05,000 --> 00:03:07,200 Speaker 5: and what is not allowed in this debate in terms 59 00:03:07,200 --> 00:03:10,000 Speaker 5: of how we're counting these tax cuts and how we're 60 00:03:10,000 --> 00:03:12,679 Speaker 5: counting these spending, any new spending, etc. 61 00:03:13,000 --> 00:03:13,200 Speaker 6: Etc. 62 00:03:13,840 --> 00:03:16,359 Speaker 5: So a lot of this will be happening behind the scenes, 63 00:03:16,600 --> 00:03:19,960 Speaker 5: and we'll see how it plays out in the coming months. 64 00:03:20,160 --> 00:03:23,200 Speaker 5: But in addition to sort of the rules here, you 65 00:03:23,320 --> 00:03:26,640 Speaker 5: also have divisions within the Republican party between those who 66 00:03:26,720 --> 00:03:30,840 Speaker 5: really want to move forward with deep spending cuts including 67 00:03:30,880 --> 00:03:34,600 Speaker 5: two entitlement programs, these deficit hawks, and then others who 68 00:03:34,600 --> 00:03:38,640 Speaker 5: want to be more liberal with tax cuts. So there's 69 00:03:38,680 --> 00:03:40,360 Speaker 5: going to be a lot of push and pulled not 70 00:03:40,440 --> 00:03:43,360 Speaker 5: just between the House and the Senate, but between Republicans 71 00:03:43,360 --> 00:03:44,200 Speaker 5: in both chambers. 72 00:03:44,280 --> 00:03:46,800 Speaker 4: So what gets done, if anything, in this meeting today? 73 00:03:46,840 --> 00:03:48,880 Speaker 4: Does John Thune make it clear he needs to take 74 00:03:48,920 --> 00:03:49,560 Speaker 4: the wheel? 75 00:03:50,000 --> 00:03:52,520 Speaker 5: I think that right now the ball is very much 76 00:03:52,680 --> 00:03:55,800 Speaker 5: in the Senate court, and the Senate has been sort 77 00:03:55,800 --> 00:03:57,840 Speaker 5: of in the background of this, as we saw the 78 00:03:57,880 --> 00:04:01,640 Speaker 5: House get it through its own budget blueprint just last month. 79 00:04:02,040 --> 00:04:04,320 Speaker 5: So now it is the Senate's turn to sort of 80 00:04:04,360 --> 00:04:06,760 Speaker 5: to figure out whether they're going to move forward with 81 00:04:06,800 --> 00:04:09,920 Speaker 5: what the House has passed or whether they're going to 82 00:04:10,000 --> 00:04:12,360 Speaker 5: go their own way here. As you mentioned a few 83 00:04:12,360 --> 00:04:15,440 Speaker 5: minutes ago, the dead ceiling is a key component of this. 84 00:04:15,800 --> 00:04:17,880 Speaker 5: You know, we're going to have a new X date 85 00:04:18,560 --> 00:04:23,280 Speaker 5: projection later this week, and you know we're anticipating that 86 00:04:23,320 --> 00:04:25,720 Speaker 5: to be this summer sometime. And do they deal with 87 00:04:25,760 --> 00:04:30,039 Speaker 5: that as part of this whole you know, Republican only 88 00:04:30,080 --> 00:04:33,200 Speaker 5: bill on tax cuts, or do they do it separately 89 00:04:33,680 --> 00:04:36,040 Speaker 5: and require Democrats to weigh in as well. 90 00:04:36,120 --> 00:04:38,400 Speaker 2: Well, we know President Trump has expressed some pretty strong 91 00:04:38,440 --> 00:04:40,200 Speaker 2: feelings about what he thinks should be done with the 92 00:04:40,200 --> 00:04:42,560 Speaker 2: dead ceiling recently. He either wants it lifted in dellies 93 00:04:42,560 --> 00:04:45,640 Speaker 2: out of office or abolished. It doesn't seem that he's expressed 94 00:04:46,360 --> 00:04:49,479 Speaker 2: much specificity as to what wants to be done with it, 95 00:04:49,520 --> 00:04:52,320 Speaker 2: other than that he wants it addressed. How much is 96 00:04:52,320 --> 00:04:55,680 Speaker 2: it his voice that matters above all others in this conversation? 97 00:04:56,000 --> 00:04:59,200 Speaker 5: So certainly we have seen him, you know, matter very 98 00:04:59,279 --> 00:05:03,479 Speaker 5: much in these negotiations, including making calls to lawmakers as 99 00:05:03,480 --> 00:05:08,240 Speaker 5: they're walking onto the floor. We've seen him reverse votes, 100 00:05:08,600 --> 00:05:11,240 Speaker 5: you know, at the very last minute. So that is 101 00:05:11,320 --> 00:05:14,320 Speaker 5: certainly central here. But for a lot of deficit hawks, 102 00:05:15,240 --> 00:05:19,320 Speaker 5: the debt ceiling is persona non graded like. They do 103 00:05:19,360 --> 00:05:21,200 Speaker 5: not want to lift it, they do not want to 104 00:05:21,240 --> 00:05:24,599 Speaker 5: eradicate it. They see this as the biggest forcing function 105 00:05:24,760 --> 00:05:29,520 Speaker 5: that we have to keep spending under any kind of control. 106 00:05:29,880 --> 00:05:33,240 Speaker 5: So I do think that that becomes much more complicated 107 00:05:33,320 --> 00:05:38,680 Speaker 5: for the president. But certainly, like I said, we've seen 108 00:05:38,760 --> 00:05:41,000 Speaker 5: him changed hearts and minds in the Capitol in the 109 00:05:41,080 --> 00:05:41,960 Speaker 5: last several months. 110 00:05:42,080 --> 00:05:44,200 Speaker 2: Indeed, we have all right, Megan Scully, who leads our 111 00:05:44,200 --> 00:05:47,240 Speaker 2: capital influence team here at Bloomberg, thank you so much. 112 00:05:47,240 --> 00:05:50,520 Speaker 2: And as we considered those deficit hawks that exist in Congress, 113 00:05:50,520 --> 00:05:53,320 Speaker 2: they also exist on Wall Street. Just look at Ray Dalio, 114 00:05:53,400 --> 00:05:56,040 Speaker 2: the share of Fregewater Associates, who of course has done 115 00:05:56,320 --> 00:05:59,520 Speaker 2: extensive research into debt and deficits and actually shared some 116 00:05:59,560 --> 00:06:01,560 Speaker 2: of that novel on Capitol Hill today. 117 00:06:01,640 --> 00:06:04,719 Speaker 4: Yeah, I wonder what the reception was. Of course, Bridgewater 118 00:06:04,760 --> 00:06:07,880 Speaker 4: Associates founder more likely to appear on Bloomberg probably than 119 00:06:07,920 --> 00:06:10,600 Speaker 4: on Capitol Hill. But to have a room full at 120 00:06:10,600 --> 00:06:15,120 Speaker 4: a moment like this to be preaching about the history 121 00:06:15,200 --> 00:06:19,080 Speaker 4: of debt crises does bring us back to the complexities 122 00:06:19,120 --> 00:06:20,000 Speaker 4: and paying. 123 00:06:19,680 --> 00:06:20,200 Speaker 7: For all of this. 124 00:06:20,320 --> 00:06:20,599 Speaker 6: Kay. 125 00:06:20,800 --> 00:06:23,680 Speaker 2: Yeah, he was addressing specifically the House Budget Committee, and 126 00:06:23,720 --> 00:06:25,840 Speaker 2: one of its members is joining us now here on 127 00:06:25,839 --> 00:06:29,840 Speaker 2: Bloomberg TV and radio. Republican Congressman Marlon Stutsman of Indiana 128 00:06:29,880 --> 00:06:32,200 Speaker 2: is back with us on Balance of Power live from 129 00:06:32,240 --> 00:06:34,960 Speaker 2: Capitol Hill. Congressman, thank you very much for your time. 130 00:06:35,000 --> 00:06:37,360 Speaker 2: Can you shed some light as to what exactly Ray 131 00:06:37,440 --> 00:06:38,320 Speaker 2: Dalio shared. 132 00:06:38,120 --> 00:06:41,000 Speaker 8: With you today? Yeah, Kaylee, great to be with you again. 133 00:06:41,440 --> 00:06:45,719 Speaker 9: Yeah, it was fascinating to have these outside voices, which 134 00:06:45,720 --> 00:06:49,159 Speaker 9: I think is really critical to this whole deficit and 135 00:06:49,240 --> 00:06:52,440 Speaker 9: debt conversation and basically just the federal budget as a whole, 136 00:06:52,800 --> 00:06:55,680 Speaker 9: and having mister Dalyo there to answer questions and just 137 00:06:56,000 --> 00:06:57,719 Speaker 9: really share his thoughts. 138 00:06:58,200 --> 00:07:00,200 Speaker 8: We're really in sight. 139 00:07:00,480 --> 00:07:02,159 Speaker 9: I mean, one of the things that I walked away 140 00:07:02,160 --> 00:07:04,280 Speaker 9: with is that he's like, you got to take care 141 00:07:04,320 --> 00:07:08,040 Speaker 9: of this before a recession hits, and you know, timeline 142 00:07:08,080 --> 00:07:09,800 Speaker 9: could be two, three. 143 00:07:10,120 --> 00:07:11,880 Speaker 8: Four years, don't know exactly when. 144 00:07:12,400 --> 00:07:14,840 Speaker 9: But as I walked out with some of my staff 145 00:07:14,880 --> 00:07:17,320 Speaker 9: who are younger, they said, oh, how are we going 146 00:07:17,400 --> 00:07:21,640 Speaker 9: to sleep tonight after hearing that? Because his comments are 147 00:07:21,640 --> 00:07:24,240 Speaker 9: really he's a realist and I appreciate that, and I 148 00:07:24,280 --> 00:07:26,440 Speaker 9: think that's what a lot of us on Capitol Hill 149 00:07:26,800 --> 00:07:29,640 Speaker 9: in Congress should be doing right now, and you know, 150 00:07:29,760 --> 00:07:33,040 Speaker 9: being realistic about where we're at, thirty six trillion dollars 151 00:07:33,040 --> 00:07:36,600 Speaker 9: of debt, deficits out of control and getting back to 152 00:07:36,720 --> 00:07:39,560 Speaker 9: balanced budgets is critical, and he really just laid out 153 00:07:39,560 --> 00:07:43,560 Speaker 9: a very thoughtful, realistic plan, not with a lot of details, 154 00:07:43,600 --> 00:07:47,320 Speaker 9: but hit those high points that we should all be 155 00:07:47,320 --> 00:07:49,560 Speaker 9: be considering in one of those spending cuts. 156 00:07:49,880 --> 00:07:50,880 Speaker 8: And so I think that's. 157 00:07:50,680 --> 00:07:55,120 Speaker 9: Why the House Budget is addressing that and knowing that 158 00:07:55,440 --> 00:07:58,440 Speaker 9: having these outside voices, which I think is critical to 159 00:07:58,920 --> 00:08:01,160 Speaker 9: moving Congress forward and actually. 160 00:08:00,880 --> 00:08:03,400 Speaker 8: Doing something, is very timely. And I was glad he 161 00:08:03,440 --> 00:08:03,920 Speaker 8: was here today. 162 00:08:05,040 --> 00:08:07,960 Speaker 4: Really interesting, Congressman, thanks for bringing us in the room here. 163 00:08:07,960 --> 00:08:10,680 Speaker 4: And I'm curious about what you said about getting ahead 164 00:08:10,680 --> 00:08:12,640 Speaker 4: of the next recession. Is that because it would be 165 00:08:12,640 --> 00:08:15,920 Speaker 4: impossible to pass this bill in the throes of a recession, 166 00:08:16,280 --> 00:08:18,640 Speaker 4: or a bill like this will prevent one? 167 00:08:19,840 --> 00:08:22,600 Speaker 9: He said that it would help prevent it. And you know, 168 00:08:22,680 --> 00:08:27,840 Speaker 9: his his plan three point plan basically was four percent 169 00:08:27,920 --> 00:08:31,920 Speaker 9: spending cuts, four percent increase in revenue, and then having 170 00:08:31,920 --> 00:08:35,320 Speaker 9: to lower the debt service, you know, one percent roughly. 171 00:08:35,920 --> 00:08:38,680 Speaker 8: And I think I asked. 172 00:08:38,480 --> 00:08:41,199 Speaker 9: Him the question because when Treasury Secretary came down and 173 00:08:41,280 --> 00:08:43,520 Speaker 9: visited with a group of us, he talked about how 174 00:08:43,559 --> 00:08:46,640 Speaker 9: he's going to go out to those debt holders and say, hey, 175 00:08:46,679 --> 00:08:50,839 Speaker 9: America is still a good place to invest. But as 176 00:08:50,880 --> 00:08:53,360 Speaker 9: mister Dalyo said, you know, I asked him, can we 177 00:08:53,400 --> 00:08:56,160 Speaker 9: restructure the debt? You know, in business, at some point 178 00:08:56,240 --> 00:08:58,720 Speaker 9: you have the ability to go and restructure and hopefully 179 00:08:58,760 --> 00:09:03,080 Speaker 9: get better terms. And his comments were not very optimistic. 180 00:09:03,160 --> 00:09:06,680 Speaker 9: He said, things are getting bad enough that those who 181 00:09:06,760 --> 00:09:10,560 Speaker 9: have the debt would be very skeptical to restructure debt. 182 00:09:10,600 --> 00:09:12,640 Speaker 9: And so I think that's why all of US Republicans 183 00:09:12,640 --> 00:09:16,520 Speaker 9: and Democrats need to realize that this debt is becoming 184 00:09:16,720 --> 00:09:19,320 Speaker 9: a crisis here in the next three to five years 185 00:09:19,320 --> 00:09:20,000 Speaker 9: and maybe sooner. 186 00:09:20,040 --> 00:09:21,720 Speaker 8: So we have to address it today. 187 00:09:23,120 --> 00:09:25,920 Speaker 2: Well, and something that does need to be addressed in 188 00:09:26,040 --> 00:09:27,640 Speaker 2: at least the next few months. And we'll get a 189 00:09:27,640 --> 00:09:31,280 Speaker 2: specific X state estimate from the Congressional Budget Office tomorrow. Congressman, 190 00:09:31,440 --> 00:09:35,560 Speaker 2: is the debt ceiling which it could impact the way 191 00:09:35,559 --> 00:09:37,800 Speaker 2: in which the US is seen as credit worthy, if 192 00:09:37,800 --> 00:09:40,080 Speaker 2: there is still full faith in the United States credit 193 00:09:40,559 --> 00:09:43,440 Speaker 2: or not. Obviously in the House bill, the debt ceiling 194 00:09:43,520 --> 00:09:46,760 Speaker 2: increase is included. Do you believe the Senate ultimately will 195 00:09:46,760 --> 00:09:49,600 Speaker 2: come around to that and include it in its own 196 00:09:49,640 --> 00:09:51,200 Speaker 2: package or is this going to have to be dealt 197 00:09:51,200 --> 00:09:51,800 Speaker 2: with separately. 198 00:09:52,960 --> 00:09:55,800 Speaker 9: Well, I was interested in what Megan was reporting before 199 00:09:55,880 --> 00:09:59,360 Speaker 9: I came on, and I think, you know, from what 200 00:10:00,080 --> 00:10:02,760 Speaker 9: we feel here in the House is that keeping this 201 00:10:02,880 --> 00:10:05,880 Speaker 9: one big beautiful bill, as Trump President Trump likes to. 202 00:10:05,800 --> 00:10:07,920 Speaker 8: Call it, is really the way forward. 203 00:10:08,360 --> 00:10:12,080 Speaker 9: We address the debt ceiling, we address spending cuts, we 204 00:10:12,120 --> 00:10:15,560 Speaker 9: address the tax policy, and as the committees of jurisdiction 205 00:10:15,640 --> 00:10:18,120 Speaker 9: start working through all of that, I think that's going 206 00:10:18,240 --> 00:10:20,880 Speaker 9: to be the path forward. We're gonna have to jump 207 00:10:20,920 --> 00:10:24,920 Speaker 9: on this, jump together as Republicans because I don't think 208 00:10:24,920 --> 00:10:26,960 Speaker 9: we're going to get very much help from Democrats. But 209 00:10:27,440 --> 00:10:29,960 Speaker 9: you know, kind of back to mister Daleo's comments is 210 00:10:29,960 --> 00:10:31,959 Speaker 9: that we do have to have spending cuts, we do 211 00:10:32,040 --> 00:10:35,280 Speaker 9: have to see increase in revenue, but there's ways of 212 00:10:35,320 --> 00:10:39,000 Speaker 9: doing that. I think tariffs is a short term solution 213 00:10:39,360 --> 00:10:43,400 Speaker 9: to increase in revenues. A growing economy will obviously help 214 00:10:43,400 --> 00:10:46,480 Speaker 9: with that. So you know, then also if we can 215 00:10:47,000 --> 00:10:51,000 Speaker 9: somehow see lower interest rates to move forward on a 216 00:10:51,000 --> 00:10:53,480 Speaker 9: budget package that I think addresses all of those, And 217 00:10:53,520 --> 00:10:56,000 Speaker 9: so I hope the Senate will seriously consider the House 218 00:10:56,000 --> 00:10:59,000 Speaker 9: package because I think anything else short of that in 219 00:10:59,040 --> 00:11:00,920 Speaker 9: the House is going to be if the Senate passes 220 00:11:00,920 --> 00:11:02,640 Speaker 9: something else, I think it's going to be very difficult 221 00:11:02,679 --> 00:11:03,480 Speaker 9: to pass in the House. 222 00:11:04,600 --> 00:11:07,200 Speaker 4: Congressman, when you were a state lawmaker in Indiana, you 223 00:11:07,240 --> 00:11:10,719 Speaker 4: helped Governor Mitch Daniels eliminate a billion dollar deficit. There 224 00:11:10,800 --> 00:11:14,640 Speaker 4: was no doge and there were no tariffs to provide revenue, 225 00:11:14,640 --> 00:11:17,680 Speaker 4: but you did it without raising taxes. Can't you bring 226 00:11:17,720 --> 00:11:21,800 Speaker 4: a lesson from that experience to this debate? How'd you 227 00:11:21,840 --> 00:11:22,120 Speaker 4: do it? 228 00:11:22,200 --> 00:11:23,400 Speaker 8: As yet? Well? 229 00:11:23,400 --> 00:11:26,439 Speaker 9: First of all, Mitch Doese are Mitch Daniels, not Mitch does. 230 00:11:26,480 --> 00:11:29,760 Speaker 9: Mitch Daniels was Doze before it was cool. He was 231 00:11:29,800 --> 00:11:31,680 Speaker 9: known as the Blade if you remember when he was 232 00:11:31,840 --> 00:11:36,920 Speaker 9: OMB director. And Governor Daniels really turned Indiana around in 233 00:11:36,960 --> 00:11:39,880 Speaker 9: a way that has set us on a very strong 234 00:11:39,920 --> 00:11:44,680 Speaker 9: path going forward, fiscally balanced budgets. We haven't seen deficits 235 00:11:44,760 --> 00:11:48,359 Speaker 9: in Indiana for years. We actually are seeing a growing population, 236 00:11:48,440 --> 00:11:50,800 Speaker 9: a great place to do business. And so I tell 237 00:11:50,840 --> 00:11:52,480 Speaker 9: that story over and over, and we had a tight 238 00:11:52,520 --> 00:11:57,080 Speaker 9: majority in two thousand and five when Governor Daniels came 239 00:11:57,080 --> 00:12:00,640 Speaker 9: into office, and we passed a budget that would give 240 00:12:00,679 --> 00:12:02,560 Speaker 9: him two years to balance, but he, of course did 241 00:12:02,600 --> 00:12:05,160 Speaker 9: it in one year. But that's the type of leadership, 242 00:12:05,559 --> 00:12:07,680 Speaker 9: Governor Daniels was. I think that's the type of leadership 243 00:12:07,679 --> 00:12:10,760 Speaker 9: we have with President Trump. He's talking about balanced budgets. 244 00:12:11,240 --> 00:12:15,560 Speaker 9: Doge is giving Congress this insight that we have needed 245 00:12:15,559 --> 00:12:18,319 Speaker 9: for many years to get actually closer to the action, 246 00:12:18,440 --> 00:12:21,120 Speaker 9: to see where spending is going and where we can 247 00:12:21,160 --> 00:12:24,560 Speaker 9: do better in appropriating and authorizing. So I think that 248 00:12:24,559 --> 00:12:26,760 Speaker 9: that experience is going to be very helpful. And I 249 00:12:26,800 --> 00:12:30,080 Speaker 9: see this freshman class as the type of class that's 250 00:12:30,120 --> 00:12:33,400 Speaker 9: here to do make those hard votes, to cast those 251 00:12:33,400 --> 00:12:36,160 Speaker 9: hard votes, but also making sure that we put India 252 00:12:36,320 --> 00:12:38,920 Speaker 9: America on the right course for success and prosperity. 253 00:12:40,880 --> 00:12:44,080 Speaker 2: Well, and as you previously mentioned, Congressman, the President obviously 254 00:12:44,120 --> 00:12:46,640 Speaker 2: thinks one way to do that is to enact tariffs 255 00:12:46,679 --> 00:12:49,920 Speaker 2: on our trading partners. Obviously looking ahead to next week, 256 00:12:50,320 --> 00:12:53,880 Speaker 2: which he says will bring Liberation Day April second, reciprocal tariffs, 257 00:12:53,880 --> 00:12:56,320 Speaker 2: but now he's talking about carve outs or exemptions for 258 00:12:56,400 --> 00:12:59,360 Speaker 2: some countries. He says auto tariffs may be coming in 259 00:12:59,520 --> 00:13:02,200 Speaker 2: the coming days. Do you feel you can give businesses 260 00:13:02,280 --> 00:13:05,720 Speaker 2: and consumers in your district in Indiana clarity as to 261 00:13:05,760 --> 00:13:08,800 Speaker 2: what Liberation Day will actually bring in what will come 262 00:13:09,120 --> 00:13:09,600 Speaker 2: after it. 263 00:13:10,760 --> 00:13:13,320 Speaker 9: Yeah, you know, that's a great question. A lot of 264 00:13:13,520 --> 00:13:17,200 Speaker 9: you know, mixed reactions. You know, talking with the steel industry, 265 00:13:17,640 --> 00:13:19,960 Speaker 9: the tariffs are good for the steel industry. Talking with 266 00:13:20,000 --> 00:13:22,840 Speaker 9: the ag community, it's a mixed bag there. But I 267 00:13:22,840 --> 00:13:25,040 Speaker 9: think at the end of the day, what I hear 268 00:13:25,120 --> 00:13:29,320 Speaker 9: from my constituents in the ag sector and manufacturing sector 269 00:13:29,960 --> 00:13:34,400 Speaker 9: is that there's trust in Trump that he's going to 270 00:13:34,440 --> 00:13:36,000 Speaker 9: settle this in the long run, and they know that 271 00:13:36,000 --> 00:13:37,800 Speaker 9: it's going to take a little bit of time. They 272 00:13:37,840 --> 00:13:40,280 Speaker 9: also know that deregulation is coming and that's going to 273 00:13:40,280 --> 00:13:44,079 Speaker 9: be helpful to the economy, energy production, and the cost 274 00:13:44,120 --> 00:13:48,360 Speaker 9: of energy. And then also just simply confidence. You know, 275 00:13:48,360 --> 00:13:51,040 Speaker 9: if we get these tax rates, if we make them permanent, 276 00:13:51,120 --> 00:13:53,160 Speaker 9: or even if we extend them for four or five years, 277 00:13:53,440 --> 00:13:56,040 Speaker 9: which I think would be sufficient to just give certainty, 278 00:13:57,080 --> 00:14:00,320 Speaker 9: will make a huge difference. And then whatever volatility is 279 00:14:00,320 --> 00:14:02,480 Speaker 9: seen from the tariffs, we can ride through that. 280 00:14:02,679 --> 00:14:05,280 Speaker 8: But you know, there's going to be days that there's 281 00:14:05,400 --> 00:14:06,040 Speaker 8: question marks. 282 00:14:06,040 --> 00:14:07,520 Speaker 9: But I think in the long run, there's a lot 283 00:14:07,559 --> 00:14:10,440 Speaker 9: of trust for President Trump, knowing he's a businessman, knowing 284 00:14:10,480 --> 00:14:13,920 Speaker 9: he's been through things like this before. And also you 285 00:14:13,960 --> 00:14:17,000 Speaker 9: know the fact that reciprocal tariffs just simply mean if 286 00:14:17,000 --> 00:14:18,360 Speaker 9: you're going to tear if us a dollar, we're going 287 00:14:18,400 --> 00:14:19,960 Speaker 9: to tear if you a dollar. And at some point 288 00:14:19,960 --> 00:14:22,720 Speaker 9: I hope the conversation leads to, hey, what if we 289 00:14:22,840 --> 00:14:26,440 Speaker 9: just lower all tariffs down and really have fair trade 290 00:14:26,480 --> 00:14:27,680 Speaker 9: and free trade. 291 00:14:29,160 --> 00:14:32,880 Speaker 4: A world with no tariffs. Congressman Marlin Stutsman, it's great 292 00:14:32,920 --> 00:14:36,520 Speaker 4: to have you back from Indiana's third District's Republican voice 293 00:14:36,640 --> 00:14:39,240 Speaker 4: today from Capitol Hill. As these meetings take place on 294 00:14:39,400 --> 00:14:42,240 Speaker 4: both ends of Pennsylvania Avenue will be tracking, of course, 295 00:14:42,600 --> 00:14:46,120 Speaker 4: the reconciliation process for you on the regular here alongside 296 00:14:46,200 --> 00:14:48,840 Speaker 4: Kaylee Lines. I'm Joe Matthew in Washington. It's great to 297 00:14:48,840 --> 00:14:51,400 Speaker 4: have you with us on Bloomberg TV and Radio as 298 00:14:51,440 --> 00:14:54,160 Speaker 4: we assemble our panel next on a busy day here 299 00:14:54,160 --> 00:14:56,760 Speaker 4: in the nation's capital. Stay with us on the fastest 300 00:14:56,760 --> 00:14:58,840 Speaker 4: show in politics, This is Bloomberg. 301 00:15:01,080 --> 00:15:04,600 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch 302 00:15:04,640 --> 00:15:07,720 Speaker 1: us live weekdays at noon and five pm Eastern on 303 00:15:07,800 --> 00:15:11,040 Speaker 1: Apple Cocklay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. 304 00:15:11,120 --> 00:15:14,120 Speaker 1: You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our 305 00:15:14,160 --> 00:15:19,360 Speaker 1: flagship New York station. Just say Alexa played Bloomberg eleven thirty. 306 00:15:20,320 --> 00:15:23,120 Speaker 2: Washington, of course, was a buzz yesterday and remains so 307 00:15:23,200 --> 00:15:25,440 Speaker 2: today on the story that published in the Atlantic by 308 00:15:25,480 --> 00:15:29,200 Speaker 2: its editor in chief Jeffrey Goldberg, who detailed his apparently 309 00:15:29,240 --> 00:15:32,920 Speaker 2: inadvertent inclusion in a group chat on the encrypted messaging 310 00:15:32,960 --> 00:15:36,320 Speaker 2: platform Signal with some of the most senior members of 311 00:15:36,360 --> 00:15:41,040 Speaker 2: the Trump administration who were discussing strikes on hoothy targets 312 00:15:41,480 --> 00:15:45,000 Speaker 2: in Yemen, and according to Goldberg's reporting, the Defense Secretary 313 00:15:45,040 --> 00:15:48,120 Speaker 2: Pete Hegseth actually shared specific detail as to the planning 314 00:15:48,160 --> 00:15:51,440 Speaker 2: of these strikes, what the targets were, weaponry that could 315 00:15:51,440 --> 00:15:54,560 Speaker 2: be used, details that Goldberg himself actually omitted in the 316 00:15:54,680 --> 00:15:57,680 Speaker 2: article given national security concerns. But Hegseth is not the 317 00:15:57,680 --> 00:16:00,560 Speaker 2: only character in this story. There's also the National Security 318 00:16:00,600 --> 00:16:03,800 Speaker 2: Advisor Mike Waltz, who started the chat initially and apparently 319 00:16:03,840 --> 00:16:07,400 Speaker 2: inadvertently added Goldberg. Here, Donald Trump, the President is defending 320 00:16:07,440 --> 00:16:10,280 Speaker 2: as a good man today. And there were others too, 321 00:16:10,320 --> 00:16:14,160 Speaker 2: including the Director of National Intelligence Toolsey Gabbard and the 322 00:16:14,200 --> 00:16:19,920 Speaker 2: Director of the CIA, John Radcliffe. Those two, perhaps unluckily, 323 00:16:20,000 --> 00:16:23,200 Speaker 2: were already scheduled to appear before the Senate Intelligence Committee 324 00:16:23,480 --> 00:16:26,200 Speaker 2: today for a hearing, and they faced some tough questions 325 00:16:26,200 --> 00:16:29,600 Speaker 2: about it. Here's this exchange between Ratcliffe and the committee's 326 00:16:29,600 --> 00:16:32,320 Speaker 2: Democratic ranking member, Senator Mark Warner. 327 00:16:33,200 --> 00:16:38,680 Speaker 10: Director Radcliffe, were you on the group chat, Senator? I 328 00:16:38,840 --> 00:16:42,120 Speaker 10: was on a signal messaging group, So you were the 329 00:16:42,200 --> 00:16:44,880 Speaker 10: John Radcliffe on that chat? I was, No, Those were 330 00:16:45,040 --> 00:16:50,480 Speaker 10: procedures that were implemented, Doctor Ratclife. Staff implemented those processes, 331 00:16:50,760 --> 00:16:57,280 Speaker 10: followed those processes, complied with and finally, just please so 332 00:16:57,960 --> 00:17:01,640 Speaker 10: my communications, to be clear in a signal message group 333 00:17:02,080 --> 00:17:07,520 Speaker 10: were entirely permissible and lawful and did not include classified information. 334 00:17:07,560 --> 00:17:09,520 Speaker 10: We will make that determination. 335 00:17:11,200 --> 00:17:15,879 Speaker 4: One of the more mild exchanges between CIA Director Ratcliffe 336 00:17:15,880 --> 00:17:19,520 Speaker 4: and Mark Warner, the Democrat top Democrat on that panel, 337 00:17:19,560 --> 00:17:21,520 Speaker 4: as Kaylee mentioned, and that's where we start with our 338 00:17:21,560 --> 00:17:24,640 Speaker 4: political panel today. Rick Davis is back with US, Republican 339 00:17:24,720 --> 00:17:28,160 Speaker 4: strategist and partner at Stone Court Capital, alongside Democratic strategist 340 00:17:28,440 --> 00:17:32,200 Speaker 4: Roger Fisk, former special advisor to President Barack Obama. Great 341 00:17:32,240 --> 00:17:34,320 Speaker 4: to have both of you back with US. Roger. This 342 00:17:34,440 --> 00:17:37,880 Speaker 4: hearing was supposed to be boring. It was originally titled 343 00:17:37,920 --> 00:17:40,960 Speaker 4: Worldwide Threats and open hearing to start at ten am 344 00:17:41,480 --> 00:17:45,560 Speaker 4: on a Tuesday, Worldwide Threats. Is the threat in this 345 00:17:45,640 --> 00:17:47,280 Speaker 4: case coming from inside the house? 346 00:17:48,640 --> 00:17:50,920 Speaker 11: Well, a funny thing happened on the way to the forum, right, 347 00:17:52,520 --> 00:17:56,919 Speaker 11: So obviously this what happened yesterday clears the decks. And 348 00:17:57,480 --> 00:17:59,600 Speaker 11: I think it's good that these folks happen to be 349 00:17:59,640 --> 00:18:04,040 Speaker 11: in front kind of a very highly respected bipartisan committee, 350 00:18:04,400 --> 00:18:08,320 Speaker 11: with Senator Warner really being one of the standard bearers 351 00:18:08,440 --> 00:18:13,520 Speaker 11: about the conduct that everyone should exercise when around and 352 00:18:13,640 --> 00:18:20,480 Speaker 11: using classified intelligence. The fact that this signal can't be 353 00:18:20,560 --> 00:18:24,959 Speaker 11: downloaded and installed on government phones, so walking into this conversation, 354 00:18:25,119 --> 00:18:27,880 Speaker 11: we have to acknowledge that these are all these individuals 355 00:18:27,920 --> 00:18:30,879 Speaker 11: doing this work on their private phones, which is a 356 00:18:30,920 --> 00:18:35,400 Speaker 11: source of concern. And then the fact that no one 357 00:18:35,440 --> 00:18:39,440 Speaker 11: took the time to go through and ensure that as 358 00:18:39,440 --> 00:18:42,080 Speaker 11: soon as that chain became at all detailed, that the 359 00:18:42,240 --> 00:18:44,560 Speaker 11: logical thing to do would be to say, let's all 360 00:18:44,600 --> 00:18:46,680 Speaker 11: get on a video conference so that we can talk 361 00:18:46,720 --> 00:18:50,199 Speaker 11: in a secure environment. That's basically the earliest trigger as 362 00:18:50,240 --> 00:18:52,400 Speaker 11: soon as it becomes any kind of a detailed conversation 363 00:18:52,520 --> 00:18:55,080 Speaker 11: is to get on a secure video conference. And that 364 00:18:55,119 --> 00:18:57,960 Speaker 11: didn't happen, and unfortunately, I think it's part of a 365 00:18:58,000 --> 00:19:01,000 Speaker 11: pattern that we've seen from the administration. But to Senator 366 00:19:01,040 --> 00:19:05,760 Speaker 11: Warner's point, we'll see how this plays out well. 367 00:19:06,040 --> 00:19:09,240 Speaker 2: And to seeing how this plays out, obviously the members 368 00:19:09,240 --> 00:19:12,240 Speaker 2: of the committee, Rick can ask their questions and however 369 00:19:12,520 --> 00:19:15,760 Speaker 2: Flamboyanna Manner, they would like to get the answers from 370 00:19:16,320 --> 00:19:18,879 Speaker 2: Gabbard and Radcliffe on tape, make as much noise as 371 00:19:18,880 --> 00:19:21,720 Speaker 2: they can about this, But in terms of actual ramification, 372 00:19:21,880 --> 00:19:23,480 Speaker 2: is the only person who can cause a head to 373 00:19:23,560 --> 00:19:26,160 Speaker 2: roll because of this President Trump, because his indication right 374 00:19:26,160 --> 00:19:28,440 Speaker 2: now is that he thinks Mike Walts, who created the 375 00:19:28,440 --> 00:19:30,360 Speaker 2: group chat, made a mistake but is a good man. 376 00:19:30,440 --> 00:19:33,200 Speaker 2: Doesn't seem to be pushing for a resignation or anything 377 00:19:33,280 --> 00:19:33,560 Speaker 2: like that. 378 00:19:35,200 --> 00:19:37,560 Speaker 7: Yeah, it's pretty clear that they don't want to upset 379 00:19:37,560 --> 00:19:40,520 Speaker 7: the apple cart with their senior leadership, and I can 380 00:19:40,600 --> 00:19:44,000 Speaker 7: understand that. But at the end of the day, somebody 381 00:19:44,119 --> 00:19:48,080 Speaker 7: ultimately was responsible for this, whether it's a Cabinet member 382 00:19:48,240 --> 00:19:52,840 Speaker 7: or a committee staff and DFD or the National Security Council, 383 00:19:53,400 --> 00:19:56,439 Speaker 7: I think every one of them probably should be looking 384 00:19:56,520 --> 00:20:01,919 Speaker 7: at their procedures because you know that these intelligence seals 385 00:20:01,920 --> 00:20:05,239 Speaker 7: have been broken, right, I mean, like, did nobody in 386 00:20:05,400 --> 00:20:08,080 Speaker 7: the D and I's office say hey, maybe you shouldn't 387 00:20:08,080 --> 00:20:10,320 Speaker 7: be talking about this kind of stuff on a signal chat. 388 00:20:11,200 --> 00:20:15,000 Speaker 7: Same with all the other agencies. I just think everybody's 389 00:20:15,320 --> 00:20:17,879 Speaker 7: you know, sort of the situational alertness needs to be 390 00:20:17,960 --> 00:20:22,840 Speaker 7: reminded that they're handling highly sensitive classified information. And I 391 00:20:22,920 --> 00:20:29,640 Speaker 7: can't imagine how naming a intelligence official who is it's 392 00:20:29,680 --> 00:20:34,280 Speaker 7: against the law to describe them as a CIA operative 393 00:20:34,760 --> 00:20:37,280 Speaker 7: is not classified. And that's one of the things that 394 00:20:37,400 --> 00:20:40,720 Speaker 7: was in the communication. So I think all this debate 395 00:20:40,720 --> 00:20:44,280 Speaker 7: about what's classified what's not is sort of beating around 396 00:20:44,320 --> 00:20:48,080 Speaker 7: the bush. I think everyone the appropriate response today should 397 00:20:48,080 --> 00:20:50,720 Speaker 7: have been, Yeah, this wasn't the right thing to have done, 398 00:20:50,760 --> 00:20:53,480 Speaker 7: and we need to find ways of being able to 399 00:20:53,480 --> 00:20:56,200 Speaker 7: communicate with each other, which is critically important, but do 400 00:20:56,320 --> 00:20:57,760 Speaker 7: it in a more classified fashion. 401 00:20:58,880 --> 00:21:03,120 Speaker 4: Another instance in that naming of that CIA officer, where 402 00:21:03,200 --> 00:21:08,000 Speaker 4: the Atlantic chose not to publish sensitive information here, classified 403 00:21:08,000 --> 00:21:11,640 Speaker 4: information as the case may be. Roger, you had a 404 00:21:11,680 --> 00:21:15,400 Speaker 4: top security clearance when you were in the Obama administration. 405 00:21:15,920 --> 00:21:17,880 Speaker 4: You have a sense of the gravity here, and I'm 406 00:21:17,880 --> 00:21:21,240 Speaker 4: wondering if we can tug on your other area of expertise, 407 00:21:21,280 --> 00:21:25,879 Speaker 4: and that's political communications. From a crisis communications standpoint, what 408 00:21:26,040 --> 00:21:27,919 Speaker 4: is the White House to do here? Do you just 409 00:21:28,040 --> 00:21:31,040 Speaker 4: duck and cover let it blow over? Or to Kiley's point, 410 00:21:31,040 --> 00:21:32,439 Speaker 4: does Donald Trump need a scalp? 411 00:21:34,960 --> 00:21:36,639 Speaker 11: The answer could very well be yes to all of 412 00:21:36,680 --> 00:21:38,960 Speaker 11: those things. I subscribe to the idea of tell it all, 413 00:21:39,040 --> 00:21:45,560 Speaker 11: tell it quick something as serious as national security, and frankly, 414 00:21:45,640 --> 00:21:48,800 Speaker 11: anytime the list of individuals that are on that chat 415 00:21:49,600 --> 00:21:51,640 Speaker 11: or having its classified. 416 00:21:54,680 --> 00:21:56,600 Speaker 2: It seems we're having a little bit of difficulty with 417 00:21:56,680 --> 00:21:58,880 Speaker 2: Roger's connection there. We'll try to work on that rick 418 00:21:59,359 --> 00:22:01,919 Speaker 2: as we consider not just the way in which this 419 00:22:02,040 --> 00:22:05,000 Speaker 2: is being viewed domestically and how the administration may need 420 00:22:05,040 --> 00:22:08,199 Speaker 2: to be messaging what happened here to a domestic audience. 421 00:22:08,240 --> 00:22:11,800 Speaker 2: I also wonder about another audience that's at play, which 422 00:22:11,840 --> 00:22:15,720 Speaker 2: is US allies, some of which share intelligence with the 423 00:22:15,800 --> 00:22:20,200 Speaker 2: United States. There was some revealing dialogue taking place between officials, 424 00:22:20,200 --> 00:22:23,640 Speaker 2: including the Vice President Jad Evans and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, 425 00:22:24,040 --> 00:22:26,000 Speaker 2: about Europe and how they didn't want to be bailing 426 00:22:26,000 --> 00:22:29,200 Speaker 2: out Europe again when it comes to shipping traffic through 427 00:22:29,520 --> 00:22:31,959 Speaker 2: the Red Sea. If you're a European ally looking at 428 00:22:31,960 --> 00:22:36,080 Speaker 2: this Atlantic article, what are you thinking, Well. 429 00:22:35,800 --> 00:22:39,520 Speaker 7: Their red flags have been up for quite some time. Look, 430 00:22:39,560 --> 00:22:42,920 Speaker 7: I mean the administration does carry a burden. I mean 431 00:22:42,960 --> 00:22:46,680 Speaker 7: Donald Trump was under indictment for misuse of classified information 432 00:22:47,880 --> 00:22:51,639 Speaker 7: in his post presidency, and so it wouldn't surprise anybody 433 00:22:51,680 --> 00:22:54,119 Speaker 7: that we would have a problem like this, you know, 434 00:22:54,240 --> 00:22:58,400 Speaker 7: since the leader of the team, the President United States, 435 00:22:58,480 --> 00:23:03,040 Speaker 7: you know, took a relatively cavalier attitude toward our nation's secrets. 436 00:23:03,160 --> 00:23:06,680 Speaker 7: So look, all of this flows down. There's a thing 437 00:23:06,760 --> 00:23:09,240 Speaker 7: called the Five Eyes, which are our five closest partners, 438 00:23:09,240 --> 00:23:13,080 Speaker 7: and we share intelligence with them in order to be 439 00:23:13,240 --> 00:23:18,760 Speaker 7: able to prepare for any contingency. And there has been 440 00:23:18,760 --> 00:23:23,160 Speaker 7: discussions as to whether or not our closing up relationship 441 00:23:23,280 --> 00:23:28,800 Speaker 7: with Russia right now is going to precipitate a pullback 442 00:23:29,280 --> 00:23:31,800 Speaker 7: from the normal course of business that the Five Eyes 443 00:23:31,800 --> 00:23:35,520 Speaker 7: conducts by sharing that kind of sensitive information. So we 444 00:23:35,560 --> 00:23:38,159 Speaker 7: hope not, because that's what helps keep the country safe 445 00:23:38,440 --> 00:23:39,359 Speaker 7: and the world safe. 446 00:23:40,960 --> 00:23:43,000 Speaker 4: Hey, Roger, we got a statement from the White House 447 00:23:43,160 --> 00:23:47,240 Speaker 4: a little bit earlier. Doesn't mention signal of the subject line. 448 00:23:47,240 --> 00:23:51,359 Speaker 4: Trump Administration's actions made who the terrorists pay, remembering it 449 00:23:51,440 --> 00:23:54,840 Speaker 4: was the battle plans, the attack plans against Yemen that 450 00:23:54,920 --> 00:23:58,520 Speaker 4: were being discussed in this signal chat. It says Democrats 451 00:23:58,560 --> 00:24:01,840 Speaker 4: and their media allies have seen seemingly forgotten President Trump 452 00:24:02,280 --> 00:24:06,440 Speaker 4: successfully killed terrorists who have targeted US troops and disrupted 453 00:24:06,480 --> 00:24:09,240 Speaker 4: the most consequential shipping routes in the world. And then 454 00:24:09,280 --> 00:24:13,000 Speaker 4: the text goes bold Roger, this is a coordinated effort 455 00:24:13,040 --> 00:24:16,520 Speaker 4: to distract from the successful actions taken by the President 456 00:24:16,560 --> 00:24:20,760 Speaker 4: his administration to make America's enemies pay and keep American safe. 457 00:24:21,240 --> 00:24:24,160 Speaker 4: Is this an effective line of response? 458 00:24:25,400 --> 00:24:29,520 Speaker 11: Apparently an impossibly coordinated attempt. If we got all those 459 00:24:29,560 --> 00:24:32,639 Speaker 11: folks to get on a signal chat and then leak it. 460 00:24:33,840 --> 00:24:36,440 Speaker 11: To build on Rick's excellent point, we have to put 461 00:24:36,480 --> 00:24:39,120 Speaker 11: ourselves in the minds of an Australia or a Germany, 462 00:24:39,200 --> 00:24:41,640 Speaker 11: or a France or Canada. And we have to also 463 00:24:41,680 --> 00:24:45,040 Speaker 11: remember that the current president in his first administration said 464 00:24:45,040 --> 00:24:48,840 Speaker 11: that he could declassify things just by thinking about them. 465 00:24:49,280 --> 00:24:53,080 Speaker 11: So if you have actionable intelligence specifically relevant to Russia, 466 00:24:53,200 --> 00:24:55,680 Speaker 11: and when you ask Rick about whether or not we're 467 00:24:55,680 --> 00:24:58,479 Speaker 11: seeing some of our allies pull back, you've got to 468 00:24:58,560 --> 00:25:01,600 Speaker 11: think that your source, your methods are all going to 469 00:25:01,600 --> 00:25:05,159 Speaker 11: be potentially compromised if you share that intelligence with the 470 00:25:05,240 --> 00:25:08,240 Speaker 11: United States of America right now. And then you add 471 00:25:08,280 --> 00:25:10,720 Speaker 11: on to this cavalier attitude that we see in the 472 00:25:10,800 --> 00:25:16,280 Speaker 11: chat yesterday, which is just not serious sober national security professionals. 473 00:25:16,440 --> 00:25:19,320 Speaker 11: I've been in these discussions, and that's not how these 474 00:25:19,320 --> 00:25:23,280 Speaker 11: people conduct themselves. The backslapping, the chest thumping, et cetera. 475 00:25:23,920 --> 00:25:26,960 Speaker 11: Then any reasonable ally would look at that and say, 476 00:25:27,000 --> 00:25:29,080 Speaker 11: you know what, it's probably better that we don't share 477 00:25:29,119 --> 00:25:31,200 Speaker 11: that information with the United States of America. 478 00:25:32,880 --> 00:25:35,480 Speaker 2: Well, and just finally, Rick, we have about ninety seconds 479 00:25:35,560 --> 00:25:38,160 Speaker 2: left here on the background of some of these individuals, 480 00:25:38,240 --> 00:25:41,080 Speaker 2: like for example, Pete Hegseth, who as defed secretary is 481 00:25:41,119 --> 00:25:44,439 Speaker 2: actually the one who reportedly shared the plans for Yemen. 482 00:25:44,680 --> 00:25:47,360 Speaker 2: He was not a government official prior to you assuming 483 00:25:47,720 --> 00:25:50,000 Speaker 2: that position. He served in the military, yes, but he 484 00:25:50,040 --> 00:25:52,560 Speaker 2: was also a Fox News host. How much is the 485 00:25:52,680 --> 00:25:56,720 Speaker 2: kind of inexperience of the typical workings of bureaucracy and 486 00:25:56,760 --> 00:25:58,400 Speaker 2: security protocol at play here. 487 00:26:00,240 --> 00:26:03,640 Speaker 7: Look my preference, I like people coming out of non 488 00:26:03,680 --> 00:26:06,719 Speaker 7: government roles. I think sometimes we get stagnation with too 489 00:26:06,800 --> 00:26:10,520 Speaker 7: many people who make government their life. So I wouldn't 490 00:26:10,560 --> 00:26:13,800 Speaker 7: criticize that, because, look, if you're smart enough to serve 491 00:26:13,840 --> 00:26:17,240 Speaker 7: in this role and get through Senate confirmation, you're smart 492 00:26:17,320 --> 00:26:19,320 Speaker 7: enough to be able to play by the rules and 493 00:26:19,359 --> 00:26:23,240 Speaker 7: to see traps. And regardless of what this looks like, 494 00:26:24,240 --> 00:26:26,159 Speaker 7: it could have been just a trap, right in the 495 00:26:26,200 --> 00:26:30,800 Speaker 7: sense that you see something that probably isn't right, maybe 496 00:26:30,840 --> 00:26:34,480 Speaker 7: we shouldn't be on signal, and but you take action 497 00:26:34,640 --> 00:26:36,760 Speaker 7: to do something about it. That's what we need, is 498 00:26:37,240 --> 00:26:40,320 Speaker 7: just the awareness of our senior leadership to see these 499 00:26:40,400 --> 00:26:43,080 Speaker 7: kinds of things. They happen every now and then. It's 500 00:26:43,160 --> 00:26:46,880 Speaker 7: not necessarily intentional, but they've got to take action and say, hey, 501 00:26:47,359 --> 00:26:51,760 Speaker 7: let's change this to talking on our secure computer system, 502 00:26:51,920 --> 00:26:55,000 Speaker 7: because that is where we ought to be having this conversation. 503 00:26:56,800 --> 00:26:59,560 Speaker 2: All right, Well, we appreciate this conversation with our political 504 00:26:59,560 --> 00:27:02,320 Speaker 2: panel here on Balance of Power, Rick Davis and Roger 505 00:27:02,320 --> 00:27:04,400 Speaker 2: Fisk with us today, and we still have much more 506 00:27:04,440 --> 00:27:08,359 Speaker 2: ahead as we turn to a partial ceasefire agreement between 507 00:27:08,400 --> 00:27:11,200 Speaker 2: Russia and Ukraine. Differences though on the timeline, and we'll 508 00:27:11,200 --> 00:27:16,119 Speaker 2: get into that next here on Bloomberg TV than radio. 509 00:27:17,200 --> 00:27:20,680 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch 510 00:27:20,760 --> 00:27:24,160 Speaker 1: us live weekdays at noon and five pm Eastern on Apple, 511 00:27:24,240 --> 00:27:27,600 Speaker 1: Cockley and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business Up. Listen 512 00:27:27,680 --> 00:27:30,800 Speaker 1: on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch us 513 00:27:30,800 --> 00:27:33,119 Speaker 1: live on YouTube. 514 00:27:33,480 --> 00:27:37,160 Speaker 4: We broke the news shortly after twelve pm Eastern time 515 00:27:37,280 --> 00:27:42,240 Speaker 4: news from Ukraine agreeing to a ceasefire in the Black 516 00:27:42,359 --> 00:27:46,680 Speaker 4: Sea and now implementing, at least, according to President Zelenski, 517 00:27:47,119 --> 00:27:51,720 Speaker 4: a partial energy infrastructure ceasefire. Kayley, these were two components 518 00:27:51,720 --> 00:27:53,359 Speaker 4: that we had talked about quite a bit on the 519 00:27:53,480 --> 00:27:57,760 Speaker 4: road to finding a lasting peace agreement in Ukraine. But 520 00:27:57,880 --> 00:28:02,439 Speaker 4: we're getting some confusing messaging out of Moscow, making us 521 00:28:02,480 --> 00:28:05,359 Speaker 4: wonder if the Kremlin and Kiev are actually on the 522 00:28:05,400 --> 00:28:06,880 Speaker 4: same page yeah, or. 523 00:28:06,840 --> 00:28:08,800 Speaker 2: If the US is also on that page with the 524 00:28:08,840 --> 00:28:11,639 Speaker 2: two of them, as they are acting as the mediator here. 525 00:28:11,680 --> 00:28:14,119 Speaker 2: The Kremlin suggesting that Russia and the US have further 526 00:28:14,200 --> 00:28:18,280 Speaker 2: discussions to have about the actual implementation of the energy 527 00:28:18,280 --> 00:28:20,399 Speaker 2: infrastructure sees fire, and that when it comes to the 528 00:28:20,400 --> 00:28:23,440 Speaker 2: Black Sea agreement, which they said they did make, it's 529 00:28:23,440 --> 00:28:27,719 Speaker 2: contingent on the relaxation of sanctions, specifically on financial institutions 530 00:28:27,720 --> 00:28:31,200 Speaker 2: that deal with Russian agricultural export. So is the deal 531 00:28:31,280 --> 00:28:33,600 Speaker 2: done or not? And what is the actual timeline? Here 532 00:28:33,680 --> 00:28:34,639 Speaker 2: are the questions that we have. 533 00:28:34,800 --> 00:28:36,879 Speaker 4: Yeah, the more we learn, the more questions we have. 534 00:28:37,000 --> 00:28:39,480 Speaker 4: We explored some of this gray area on the late 535 00:28:39,600 --> 00:28:43,240 Speaker 4: edition of Balance of Power yesterday with Ukraine's ambassador to 536 00:28:43,320 --> 00:28:46,480 Speaker 4: the US, Oksana Markarova. 537 00:28:46,560 --> 00:28:49,239 Speaker 12: We will see with Russia they have to show it 538 00:28:49,320 --> 00:28:51,400 Speaker 12: not only by woods, but was they gids. 539 00:28:52,400 --> 00:28:55,560 Speaker 4: We heard from President Trump on a potential minerals deal 540 00:28:56,040 --> 00:28:59,480 Speaker 4: with Ukraine just about completed. We'll be signing it soon, 541 00:28:59,520 --> 00:29:01,320 Speaker 4: he said, are you really that far along? 542 00:29:01,920 --> 00:29:04,520 Speaker 12: Well, you know, as the former Minister of Finance and 543 00:29:05,040 --> 00:29:08,080 Speaker 12: during my four years as an ambassador, I always pushed 544 00:29:08,080 --> 00:29:11,959 Speaker 12: for a bigger cooperation between US and Ukraine. And there 545 00:29:12,000 --> 00:29:14,120 Speaker 12: are many areas we can do that. I mean, mineral 546 00:29:14,160 --> 00:29:20,320 Speaker 12: deals is one of them. Energy, infrastructure, innovations and engineering everywhere, 547 00:29:20,800 --> 00:29:23,760 Speaker 12: all these sectors where Ukraine can be a solution to 548 00:29:23,800 --> 00:29:26,720 Speaker 12: so many global problems and where we together can actually 549 00:29:26,760 --> 00:29:31,400 Speaker 12: add to security and to prosperity of both of our countries. 550 00:29:31,440 --> 00:29:34,800 Speaker 12: So our first Vice Prime Minister and Secretary of Vesant 551 00:29:34,800 --> 00:29:37,720 Speaker 12: are in active discussions and the more we can do 552 00:29:37,800 --> 00:29:41,600 Speaker 12: together on the economic and investment front, the better for both. 553 00:29:41,360 --> 00:29:42,160 Speaker 8: Of our countries. 554 00:29:42,440 --> 00:29:45,960 Speaker 12: Of course, peace is something that is on everyone's mind. 555 00:29:46,040 --> 00:29:49,640 Speaker 12: We need for Russia to stop disaggression and we need 556 00:29:49,680 --> 00:29:52,440 Speaker 12: to return to peace. But there is a lot we 557 00:29:52,480 --> 00:29:53,200 Speaker 12: can do together. 558 00:29:53,760 --> 00:29:57,120 Speaker 2: Well, you mentioned energy. There is it going to stop 559 00:29:57,120 --> 00:29:58,840 Speaker 2: it just the minerals deal because we now have the 560 00:29:58,880 --> 00:30:04,320 Speaker 2: administration flowing ideas around controlling Ukrainian nuclear power plants, for example, 561 00:30:04,360 --> 00:30:07,640 Speaker 2: having an ownership role to play. Can you shed some 562 00:30:07,760 --> 00:30:09,040 Speaker 2: light on those conversations. 563 00:30:09,240 --> 00:30:11,880 Speaker 12: Well, again, as I said, there are many industries where 564 00:30:12,520 --> 00:30:17,320 Speaker 12: we can cooperate and Ukraine energy is one of the 565 00:30:17,360 --> 00:30:20,720 Speaker 12: top four or five industries where Ukraine even during the war, 566 00:30:20,760 --> 00:30:23,920 Speaker 12: at the beginning of this full fledged Warfhase, Ukraine was 567 00:30:24,280 --> 00:30:27,680 Speaker 12: exporting electricity. That's why Russia is a take in our 568 00:30:27,880 --> 00:30:31,040 Speaker 12: energy because this is one of the competitive advantages that 569 00:30:31,080 --> 00:30:34,920 Speaker 12: we had. Similar with agribusiness, similar with infrastructure, and again 570 00:30:35,400 --> 00:30:38,520 Speaker 12: defense tech and everything else. We really would like to 571 00:30:38,560 --> 00:30:42,560 Speaker 12: cooperate more with US, of course with European partners and others, 572 00:30:42,600 --> 00:30:44,120 Speaker 12: but I think there is a lot we can do 573 00:30:44,200 --> 00:30:45,200 Speaker 12: with American companies. 574 00:30:45,240 --> 00:30:47,080 Speaker 4: Ambassador, I just want to put a finer point on 575 00:30:47,120 --> 00:30:49,480 Speaker 4: a couple of things that we've brought up with the 576 00:30:49,520 --> 00:30:53,560 Speaker 4: spirit of cooperation in mind. And I understand the sentiment 577 00:30:53,600 --> 00:30:56,600 Speaker 4: of that statement that you're making, But is a minerals 578 00:30:56,640 --> 00:31:00,440 Speaker 4: deal about to be signed or will more negotiations be acquired? 579 00:31:00,640 --> 00:31:04,680 Speaker 4: And is an energy infrastructure cease fire actually in effect? 580 00:31:04,880 --> 00:31:05,800 Speaker 4: Has it been signed? 581 00:31:06,680 --> 00:31:10,480 Speaker 12: Well, we had discussing it very actively. Definitely is not 582 00:31:10,640 --> 00:31:12,960 Speaker 12: going to be I mean, I think both teams are 583 00:31:13,520 --> 00:31:18,600 Speaker 12: very focused on doing it and doing it pretty fast. 584 00:31:19,520 --> 00:31:21,480 Speaker 12: But of course, you know, as we all know in 585 00:31:21,640 --> 00:31:24,920 Speaker 12: investment and finance, I mean, you have to discuss everything. 586 00:31:25,280 --> 00:31:28,800 Speaker 12: The more you agree and discuss everything before you sign, 587 00:31:29,200 --> 00:31:33,800 Speaker 12: the better and partnership afterwards. But we're doing it at 588 00:31:33,840 --> 00:31:34,920 Speaker 12: a very quick pace. 589 00:31:35,400 --> 00:31:38,040 Speaker 2: Speaking of quick pace, the White House appears to be 590 00:31:38,120 --> 00:31:41,200 Speaker 2: targeting for a full seasfire to start April twentieth. Is 591 00:31:41,200 --> 00:31:44,400 Speaker 2: that a timeline that Ukraine seas as realistic? It's just 592 00:31:44,440 --> 00:31:45,200 Speaker 2: weeks away at this. 593 00:31:45,200 --> 00:31:49,680 Speaker 12: Point, well even more than a week ago. Our president 594 00:31:49,800 --> 00:31:53,479 Speaker 12: said we're ready for it. So again it takes two 595 00:31:53,520 --> 00:31:58,680 Speaker 12: to dance, and Ukraine wants this sea is fire. We're 596 00:31:58,720 --> 00:32:03,400 Speaker 12: ready for seasfire. We actually want a full fledged and 597 00:32:03,640 --> 00:32:07,760 Speaker 12: just peace, you know, but it's not going to be 598 00:32:07,920 --> 00:32:12,400 Speaker 12: Ukraine that is going to be impediment for that. 599 00:32:12,400 --> 00:32:14,280 Speaker 2: That was our conversation or part of it with the 600 00:32:14,360 --> 00:32:18,000 Speaker 2: Ukrainian Ambassador to the United States, Oxana Makarova yesterday, of 601 00:32:18,000 --> 00:32:20,520 Speaker 2: course showed today the narrative seems to have changed slightly, 602 00:32:20,520 --> 00:32:22,640 Speaker 2: although we still lack a great deal of clarity as 603 00:32:22,640 --> 00:32:25,840 Speaker 2: to the actual implementation of this partial ceasefire, and just 604 00:32:25,880 --> 00:32:28,760 Speaker 2: getting some headlines out of Riad Saudi Arabia, where Ukrainian 605 00:32:28,800 --> 00:32:32,160 Speaker 2: officials still are It's Defense minister saying Ukraine is ready 606 00:32:32,160 --> 00:32:35,400 Speaker 2: for a new meeting to work out true details, suggesting 607 00:32:35,440 --> 00:32:37,400 Speaker 2: there is still things that need to be worked out. 608 00:32:37,480 --> 00:32:40,120 Speaker 4: Yeah, we may have been a little over our skis, 609 00:32:40,160 --> 00:32:43,000 Speaker 4: and by that I mean Ukraine and the US helping 610 00:32:43,000 --> 00:32:47,240 Speaker 4: them announce these headlines at noontime Eastern today. It's not 611 00:32:47,280 --> 00:32:49,120 Speaker 4: even two o'clock yet, and we have a sense that 612 00:32:49,360 --> 00:32:52,040 Speaker 4: this may not have been exactly what it appeared. A 613 00:32:52,200 --> 00:32:55,080 Speaker 4: great timing to have Mara Rudman with us in studio today, 614 00:32:55,160 --> 00:32:57,120 Speaker 4: joining us here on Balance of Power, professor at the 615 00:32:57,200 --> 00:33:00,840 Speaker 4: University of Virginia's Miller Center, former US diplomat Great to 616 00:33:00,840 --> 00:33:03,960 Speaker 4: see you and thank you so much for coming. Read 617 00:33:04,000 --> 00:33:06,920 Speaker 4: between the lines for us here what feels real at 618 00:33:06,960 --> 00:33:08,600 Speaker 4: the moment. Did Ukraine speak too soon? 619 00:33:08,960 --> 00:33:10,760 Speaker 6: I'm not sure if Ukraine spoke too soon because the 620 00:33:10,840 --> 00:33:13,800 Speaker 6: United States had also put out statements. I think Ukraine 621 00:33:13,840 --> 00:33:18,080 Speaker 6: is trying to navigate being forward leaning in terms of 622 00:33:18,200 --> 00:33:20,760 Speaker 6: responding to what the United States wants and how they 623 00:33:20,800 --> 00:33:26,640 Speaker 6: want it said and put and knowing that their Russian 624 00:33:26,640 --> 00:33:28,960 Speaker 6: counterpart is not doing the same and it's perhaps being 625 00:33:28,960 --> 00:33:31,880 Speaker 6: measured by different terms. So I think that the Ukrainians 626 00:33:31,880 --> 00:33:34,280 Speaker 6: put out what they were what they had thought they 627 00:33:34,280 --> 00:33:38,720 Speaker 6: had agreed to, which is the Baltic See issue, the 628 00:33:39,280 --> 00:33:43,560 Speaker 6: black seat issues, which by the way benefit Russia on 629 00:33:43,600 --> 00:33:47,040 Speaker 6: more than Ukraine. So they were coming in putting that out, 630 00:33:47,080 --> 00:33:51,280 Speaker 6: showing their willingness, and the Russians had been silent and 631 00:33:51,480 --> 00:33:54,760 Speaker 6: apparently have been have come out now more recently something 632 00:33:54,800 --> 00:33:57,680 Speaker 6: but much more measured. So it could be a failure 633 00:33:57,760 --> 00:34:01,120 Speaker 6: of the United States negotiators to recognize they were in 634 00:34:01,160 --> 00:34:04,440 Speaker 6: parallel negotiations that they hadn't gotten Russia. It could be 635 00:34:04,480 --> 00:34:07,360 Speaker 6: them trying to push Russia further publicly by showing what 636 00:34:07,480 --> 00:34:09,920 Speaker 6: Ukraine is willing to do, but in any case, it 637 00:34:09,960 --> 00:34:11,960 Speaker 6: continues to put Ukraine an uncomfortable position. 638 00:34:12,160 --> 00:34:15,719 Speaker 2: Well, and when we consider what Russia said, it was 639 00:34:15,760 --> 00:34:19,560 Speaker 2: that yes, they agreed to a Black Sea ceasefire, but 640 00:34:19,680 --> 00:34:23,000 Speaker 2: it was on a contingent upon sanctions relief. What do 641 00:34:23,080 --> 00:34:25,799 Speaker 2: you make, Mara, of the suggestion that sanctions relief could 642 00:34:25,800 --> 00:34:30,280 Speaker 2: already be coming despite it not being a full ceasefire agreement. 643 00:34:30,680 --> 00:34:33,080 Speaker 6: I make that the Russians believe at least that they 644 00:34:33,120 --> 00:34:38,680 Speaker 6: are calling the shots here and that they say jump 645 00:34:38,680 --> 00:34:41,400 Speaker 6: and the United States says how high and then translates 646 00:34:41,440 --> 00:34:45,040 Speaker 6: that to the Ukrainians. So they're trying to get more 647 00:34:45,080 --> 00:34:47,560 Speaker 6: from a deal. The questions whether they said that in 648 00:34:47,560 --> 00:34:50,520 Speaker 6: the room to Steve Witkoff and others, or whether they're 649 00:34:50,600 --> 00:34:52,279 Speaker 6: now saying it after the fact. 650 00:34:52,960 --> 00:34:55,800 Speaker 4: At this point, we see a couple of headlines crossing 651 00:34:55,800 --> 00:34:58,600 Speaker 4: the terminal that I just want to mention. Russia says 652 00:34:58,640 --> 00:35:02,120 Speaker 4: it is not considering the trans for of the Zaparijia 653 00:35:02,200 --> 00:35:05,160 Speaker 4: nuclear power plant, which is something that had been floated 654 00:35:05,280 --> 00:35:07,640 Speaker 4: by President Trump at one point he said, we're dividing 655 00:35:07,680 --> 00:35:11,120 Speaker 4: up land. We're talking about power plants, also announcing the 656 00:35:11,120 --> 00:35:12,960 Speaker 4: White House here that the President will be meeting with 657 00:35:13,080 --> 00:35:16,880 Speaker 4: US ambassadors a bit later two forty five pm, and 658 00:35:16,920 --> 00:35:20,160 Speaker 4: I wonder if the signal story is going to come up. 659 00:35:20,200 --> 00:35:22,080 Speaker 4: This is something that we've been talking about. I don't 660 00:35:22,080 --> 00:35:25,200 Speaker 4: know why else you're corralling all US ambassadors. There's a 661 00:35:25,200 --> 00:35:27,800 Speaker 4: bit of concern about the way this is being received, 662 00:35:27,800 --> 00:35:32,040 Speaker 4: not just at home, but also by our allies abroad, 663 00:35:32,120 --> 00:35:35,200 Speaker 4: the sharing of war plans on the signal app inadvertently 664 00:35:35,239 --> 00:35:38,360 Speaker 4: to a journalist. We saw some pretty tough testimony today 665 00:35:38,440 --> 00:35:41,719 Speaker 4: on Capitol Hill with the two top intelligence officials in 666 00:35:41,760 --> 00:35:47,640 Speaker 4: this administration, Tulsea Gabbard, CIA Director Ratcliffe, suggesting that classified 667 00:35:47,680 --> 00:35:51,120 Speaker 4: information was not shared on this app How do we 668 00:35:51,160 --> 00:35:52,320 Speaker 4: say that with a straight face? 669 00:35:52,840 --> 00:35:56,200 Speaker 6: So I'm glad I wasn't the one in the position 670 00:35:56,239 --> 00:36:00,520 Speaker 6: of having to say it. Judging from my past experience 671 00:36:00,600 --> 00:36:02,759 Speaker 6: in the as a staffer or senior staffer at the 672 00:36:02,840 --> 00:36:07,399 Speaker 6: National Security Council, I would say that the only way 673 00:36:07,440 --> 00:36:12,120 Speaker 6: you can interpret that last statement as accurate is if 674 00:36:12,200 --> 00:36:14,759 Speaker 6: the Secretary of Defense, I think they're pointing at this, 675 00:36:15,280 --> 00:36:20,320 Speaker 6: for example, on his own unilaterally declassified information, for example, 676 00:36:20,320 --> 00:36:23,319 Speaker 6: information about war planning. He would have had to have 677 00:36:23,880 --> 00:36:26,960 Speaker 6: moved that information from the high side the classified side 678 00:36:27,200 --> 00:36:30,480 Speaker 6: to what is an unclassified system signal, whether encrypted or not. 679 00:36:31,040 --> 00:36:33,600 Speaker 6: So somehow they may be interpreting that in the process 680 00:36:33,640 --> 00:36:36,480 Speaker 6: of doing that, that should be read as a de 681 00:36:36,600 --> 00:36:42,879 Speaker 6: facto declassification in an audit, it would be if there 682 00:36:43,160 --> 00:36:45,400 Speaker 6: is that kind of thorough audit. I think some on 683 00:36:45,440 --> 00:36:47,719 Speaker 6: the Hill want it. It's not clear that others do. 684 00:36:47,760 --> 00:36:50,600 Speaker 6: I've got as I was surprised with Chairman Tom Conton, 685 00:36:51,120 --> 00:36:54,200 Speaker 6: who is, by any measure of warhawk on, someone who 686 00:36:54,200 --> 00:36:57,480 Speaker 6: I'm sure is very careful himself about security operations. I 687 00:36:57,520 --> 00:37:01,320 Speaker 6: was surprised at his unwillingness to lean into those questions. 688 00:37:01,680 --> 00:37:04,440 Speaker 2: Well, we certainly saw the leaning in on the behalf 689 00:37:04,480 --> 00:37:08,880 Speaker 2: of others Democratic senators specifically on this, And I wonder, 690 00:37:08,920 --> 00:37:11,960 Speaker 2: as we consider the troubling nature of a number of 691 00:37:12,080 --> 00:37:14,600 Speaker 2: factors of this story, is it so much about the 692 00:37:14,600 --> 00:37:17,600 Speaker 2: way in which these officials were communicating with each other 693 00:37:17,719 --> 00:37:19,840 Speaker 2: or what it may signal in terms of not just 694 00:37:20,000 --> 00:37:24,600 Speaker 2: internal US government intelligence sharing, but external intelligence sharing with 695 00:37:24,760 --> 00:37:28,759 Speaker 2: partners who may not want their classified information transmitted through 696 00:37:28,800 --> 00:37:29,800 Speaker 2: means such as signal. 697 00:37:29,920 --> 00:37:32,480 Speaker 6: Sure, I think it's in all of the above. So 698 00:37:32,520 --> 00:37:36,279 Speaker 6: certainly what they were communicating was a huge problem. How 699 00:37:36,320 --> 00:37:38,960 Speaker 6: they were communicating, it was a huge problem. And then 700 00:37:39,000 --> 00:37:42,360 Speaker 6: I would go further to say, in the context of 701 00:37:42,360 --> 00:37:45,680 Speaker 6: what they were communicating, they show they have a very 702 00:37:45,719 --> 00:37:48,680 Speaker 6: different view of who our friends and partners and allies 703 00:37:48,719 --> 00:37:53,760 Speaker 6: are than is commonly understood. It differs from the history 704 00:37:53,800 --> 00:37:56,239 Speaker 6: of the United States in terms of the importance of 705 00:37:56,239 --> 00:38:00,560 Speaker 6: our relationship with Europe, of Canada, of Australia, of those 706 00:38:00,600 --> 00:38:03,560 Speaker 6: who are in the Five Eyes Agreement, which is not 707 00:38:03,640 --> 00:38:07,960 Speaker 6: Russia and not China. And yet in the kinds of 708 00:38:08,040 --> 00:38:10,200 Speaker 6: language they use and how they talk about things, and 709 00:38:10,239 --> 00:38:15,880 Speaker 6: in what they're doing on these essentially open systems. Signal 710 00:38:15,960 --> 00:38:20,560 Speaker 6: is encrypted, but it's an open source means of communicating. 711 00:38:21,320 --> 00:38:24,480 Speaker 6: They're showing an utter disregard for those for whom the 712 00:38:24,560 --> 00:38:27,719 Speaker 6: United States has traditionally and I would argue needs to 713 00:38:27,760 --> 00:38:31,040 Speaker 6: rely in the future partnerships or partnerships for a reason we. 714 00:38:31,120 --> 00:38:33,319 Speaker 4: Got to stavement from the White House earlier. Today. It 715 00:38:33,320 --> 00:38:37,680 Speaker 4: doesn't mention signal, but refers to a coordinated effort to 716 00:38:37,760 --> 00:38:41,160 Speaker 4: distract from the successful actions taken by President Trump and 717 00:38:41,239 --> 00:38:45,560 Speaker 4: his administration to make America's enemies pay and keep Americans safe. 718 00:38:45,680 --> 00:38:49,000 Speaker 4: Refers to the Biden administration sitting back as a band 719 00:38:49,040 --> 00:38:52,080 Speaker 4: of pirates exacted a toll system and one of the 720 00:38:52,080 --> 00:38:55,319 Speaker 4: most important shipping lanes in the world. Does that give 721 00:38:55,320 --> 00:38:57,839 Speaker 4: you a sense of how the White House is going 722 00:38:57,880 --> 00:39:00,000 Speaker 4: to handle this. It doesn't sound like anyone's getting fired. 723 00:39:00,760 --> 00:39:03,279 Speaker 6: It gives me a sense of a lack of appreciation, 724 00:39:04,080 --> 00:39:07,400 Speaker 6: may bee willful lack of appreciation for the seriousness of 725 00:39:07,440 --> 00:39:10,719 Speaker 6: the situation. It also, you know, I have to say 726 00:39:10,760 --> 00:39:13,200 Speaker 6: I did not serve in the Biden administration, but I 727 00:39:13,280 --> 00:39:19,360 Speaker 6: was an acute observer from the outside. And it's a serious, 728 00:39:19,400 --> 00:39:24,520 Speaker 6: serious allegations and quite unfair allegations about what the Biden 729 00:39:24,560 --> 00:39:26,720 Speaker 6: musician did or didn't do with respect to the Hutus. 730 00:39:27,080 --> 00:39:29,480 Speaker 6: They certainly took a number of actions. You can disagree 731 00:39:29,480 --> 00:39:32,359 Speaker 6: with the intensity of their actions, but using that kind 732 00:39:32,400 --> 00:39:35,120 Speaker 6: of language is as problematic as using the language that 733 00:39:35,960 --> 00:39:38,720 Speaker 6: was reported to be on the signal chat about European allies. 734 00:39:38,920 --> 00:39:40,600 Speaker 2: We just have a minute left. But to the point 735 00:39:40,600 --> 00:39:43,360 Speaker 2: you were making on the discussions of europe Pete hegseeth 736 00:39:43,400 --> 00:39:46,279 Speaker 2: suggesting their freeloaders JD. Van saying he doesn't want to 737 00:39:46,280 --> 00:39:48,160 Speaker 2: bail them out again. Do you see that as a 738 00:39:48,160 --> 00:39:50,879 Speaker 2: misunderstanding of what actually is at stake in the Red Sea, 739 00:39:50,920 --> 00:39:53,200 Speaker 2: because they seemed to think it was mostly Europe's problem, 740 00:39:53,200 --> 00:39:55,440 Speaker 2: that the US didn't really necessarily need to be doing this. 741 00:39:55,880 --> 00:39:59,520 Speaker 6: I would view it more broadly as a miss and 742 00:39:59,640 --> 00:40:02,759 Speaker 6: more in a deeper sense, as a misunderstanding of how 743 00:40:02,800 --> 00:40:06,000 Speaker 6: to best achieve US security and protect the American people, 744 00:40:06,400 --> 00:40:09,600 Speaker 6: and free international shipping lanes are part of that, and 745 00:40:09,719 --> 00:40:14,400 Speaker 6: also having a strong partnership with allies in Europe, our NATO, 746 00:40:14,440 --> 00:40:17,280 Speaker 6: allies who have been with US and who have benefited 747 00:40:17,320 --> 00:40:19,359 Speaker 6: from being with us, but the United States has also 748 00:40:19,400 --> 00:40:21,920 Speaker 6: benefited in return. So I think you put the United 749 00:40:21,960 --> 00:40:25,600 Speaker 6: States at serious jeopardy with those kinds of statements and allegations. 750 00:40:25,680 --> 00:40:29,000 Speaker 2: All Right, Former US diplomat Maura Rudman, now at University 751 00:40:29,000 --> 00:40:31,560 Speaker 2: of Virginia's Miller Center, here with us in our Washington, 752 00:40:31,640 --> 00:40:33,120 Speaker 2: d C studio on this story. 753 00:40:36,640 --> 00:40:39,839 Speaker 4: Thanks for listening to the Balance of Power podcast. Make 754 00:40:39,880 --> 00:40:42,839 Speaker 4: sure to subscribe if you haven't already, at Apple, Spotify, 755 00:40:42,960 --> 00:40:45,520 Speaker 4: or wherever you get your podcasts, and you can find 756 00:40:45,600 --> 00:40:48,800 Speaker 4: us live every weekday from Washington, DC at noontime Eastern 757 00:40:49,120 --> 00:40:50,520 Speaker 4: at Bloomberg dot com.