1 00:00:01,040 --> 00:00:04,560 Speaker 1: This is the Action Network podcast. 2 00:00:04,720 --> 00:00:05,840 Speaker 2: So you can hear the chatter. 3 00:00:05,920 --> 00:00:06,800 Speaker 3: It's from the crowd. 4 00:00:07,840 --> 00:00:10,840 Speaker 4: We have a big chant, a big chance to make 5 00:00:10,920 --> 00:00:13,600 Speaker 4: it a lot push the big bucks. 6 00:00:14,280 --> 00:00:17,560 Speaker 3: Three punter big Oh what a man. 7 00:00:23,440 --> 00:00:26,640 Speaker 4: Welcome to the Action Network Podcast presented by FanDuel. I'm 8 00:00:26,680 --> 00:00:29,760 Speaker 4: your host Jill Glant with the Action Network, and today 9 00:00:30,200 --> 00:00:33,640 Speaker 4: we have our final NBA Draft betting preview with Action 10 00:00:33,720 --> 00:00:37,400 Speaker 4: Network betting experts Brian von Seca and Luke Swayne aka 11 00:00:37,920 --> 00:00:41,320 Speaker 4: Vegas Refund Nomber four. Uh. Brian and Luke let us 12 00:00:41,320 --> 00:00:43,960 Speaker 4: know kind of what they're thinking about the draft. Friendly reminder, 13 00:00:44,159 --> 00:00:48,360 Speaker 4: the draft is tomorrow, Thursday, June twenty second. We're still 14 00:00:48,360 --> 00:00:51,240 Speaker 4: going to have more draft content from our Action experts 15 00:00:51,280 --> 00:00:53,960 Speaker 4: like Brandon Anderson and Matt Moore. They'll be over on 16 00:00:54,000 --> 00:00:57,800 Speaker 4: our NBA podcast Buckets as well as the Favorites podcast 17 00:00:58,120 --> 00:00:59,520 Speaker 4: with Chad and Simon. 18 00:00:59,760 --> 00:01:00,920 Speaker 2: Check those out as well. 19 00:01:01,520 --> 00:01:04,840 Speaker 4: All right, gentlemen, Last week when we opened the show, 20 00:01:04,920 --> 00:01:07,280 Speaker 4: we talked about why we love the betting on the 21 00:01:07,400 --> 00:01:11,480 Speaker 4: NBA Draft, and late Tuesday night kind of illustrated that 22 00:01:11,520 --> 00:01:15,160 Speaker 4: to the fullest because we have seen odds flip now 23 00:01:15,520 --> 00:01:18,119 Speaker 4: for the number two and number three pick twice since 24 00:01:18,160 --> 00:01:20,679 Speaker 4: we have done the first podcast, which was last Monday, 25 00:01:20,720 --> 00:01:23,840 Speaker 4: so give our listeners a quick recap. So, after we 26 00:01:23,880 --> 00:01:26,600 Speaker 4: did the show last week, multiple reports come out that 27 00:01:26,720 --> 00:01:30,080 Speaker 4: Charlotte was taking Scoot Henderson at number two. Other teams, 28 00:01:30,080 --> 00:01:32,360 Speaker 4: maybe like the Pelicans, were interested in trading up for 29 00:01:32,440 --> 00:01:35,920 Speaker 4: Scoot as well. As a result, the market flipped. Scoot 30 00:01:35,959 --> 00:01:38,120 Speaker 4: was minus two to twenty five to go number two 31 00:01:38,840 --> 00:01:43,039 Speaker 4: until late Tuesday night, when both WOJ and John Gavoni 32 00:01:43,120 --> 00:01:46,120 Speaker 4: both go on Sports Center and say that Charlotte was 33 00:01:46,160 --> 00:01:49,040 Speaker 4: impressed with Brandon Miller, brought him in for a second workout, 34 00:01:49,280 --> 00:01:51,640 Speaker 4: and that he is going to be the number two pick. 35 00:01:51,920 --> 00:01:55,840 Speaker 4: The market flips immediately. Brandon Miller has been being steamed 36 00:01:55,880 --> 00:01:58,840 Speaker 4: all day at Vandual to go number two, seeing it 37 00:01:58,840 --> 00:02:02,080 Speaker 4: as high as minus fifty, which is an eighty six 38 00:02:02,160 --> 00:02:06,480 Speaker 4: percent imply probability Scoot dropping down to plus three seventy 39 00:02:06,680 --> 00:02:10,200 Speaker 4: to go second at Banduel. So, gentlemen, I'll ask you 40 00:02:10,240 --> 00:02:13,960 Speaker 4: both this, how do we bet these markets now? Because 41 00:02:14,080 --> 00:02:16,960 Speaker 4: is there a chance for another flip between number two 42 00:02:17,040 --> 00:02:19,239 Speaker 4: and number three for Brandon Miller and Scoot Luke. 43 00:02:19,280 --> 00:02:22,960 Speaker 5: I'll let you go first, So I mean it's it's crazy. 44 00:02:23,000 --> 00:02:26,280 Speaker 5: I feel like we're stuck in a loop. I mean 45 00:02:26,880 --> 00:02:30,240 Speaker 5: from the NBA draft last year to the NFL Draft 46 00:02:30,240 --> 00:02:33,040 Speaker 5: with Stroud a couple months ago, and now this where 47 00:02:33,760 --> 00:02:36,960 Speaker 5: we have guys just flip flopping odds again. And I 48 00:02:37,000 --> 00:02:39,960 Speaker 5: will say, and on the last pod I was getting 49 00:02:40,040 --> 00:02:43,000 Speaker 5: I did mention about getting like Scoot vibes, and of 50 00:02:43,040 --> 00:02:46,360 Speaker 5: course Scoot became the favorite over the last five days. 51 00:02:46,360 --> 00:02:51,200 Speaker 5: And now Miller, really based off of Waj's bit on 52 00:02:51,440 --> 00:02:55,639 Speaker 5: ESPN yesterday, is the heavy favorite, which he. 53 00:02:55,639 --> 00:02:57,160 Speaker 3: Got it totally wrong last year. 54 00:02:57,880 --> 00:03:00,400 Speaker 5: And it is funny because I want to say, really, 55 00:03:00,440 --> 00:03:04,240 Speaker 5: based off of him getting Jabbari Powell wrong last year, 56 00:03:04,760 --> 00:03:06,920 Speaker 5: I do think we're getting like less steam than we 57 00:03:06,919 --> 00:03:09,160 Speaker 5: would have if he didn't where like Miller might have. 58 00:03:09,600 --> 00:03:11,840 Speaker 5: Like this time last year, Miller would be like minus 59 00:03:11,880 --> 00:03:14,560 Speaker 5: a thousand or higher, just purely based off of Wash 60 00:03:14,639 --> 00:03:17,440 Speaker 5: and now he's sitting at minus three hundred, minus four hundred, 61 00:03:17,480 --> 00:03:17,840 Speaker 5: et cetera. 62 00:03:17,880 --> 00:03:20,560 Speaker 3: And he still was. He's still the most connected. 63 00:03:20,200 --> 00:03:24,000 Speaker 5: Person we have, and if anything, he's due for a 64 00:03:24,040 --> 00:03:27,080 Speaker 5: bounce back after getting last year totally wrong. And you 65 00:03:27,120 --> 00:03:30,000 Speaker 5: want to you want to hope that he has a 66 00:03:30,040 --> 00:03:32,280 Speaker 5: little bit more motivation to get this one right. And 67 00:03:32,840 --> 00:03:35,200 Speaker 5: I do think in the context that he put last night, 68 00:03:35,240 --> 00:03:38,200 Speaker 5: which he is historic, he like, he's notorious for kind 69 00:03:38,240 --> 00:03:41,320 Speaker 5: of beating around the bush and not being direct about 70 00:03:41,920 --> 00:03:44,040 Speaker 5: what the pick is going to be, or like he'll 71 00:03:44,040 --> 00:03:47,400 Speaker 5: be like Team X is honing in on player, like 72 00:03:47,520 --> 00:03:51,520 Speaker 5: why last night he was like very very like direct. 73 00:03:51,640 --> 00:03:56,080 Speaker 5: He's like basically saying that Miller is becoming the favorite. 74 00:03:56,640 --> 00:03:59,000 Speaker 5: And I did buy it more than I would and 75 00:04:00,240 --> 00:04:01,640 Speaker 5: I do think he should be the favorite. 76 00:04:01,680 --> 00:04:04,600 Speaker 3: I don't know. I would never lay these odds right now. 77 00:04:05,040 --> 00:04:07,680 Speaker 5: If you don't believe it and you think Scoot is 78 00:04:07,720 --> 00:04:11,560 Speaker 5: gonna go number two, you're probably within that window because 79 00:04:12,080 --> 00:04:14,360 Speaker 5: these things are gonna the odds are gonna move again. 80 00:04:15,120 --> 00:04:17,880 Speaker 3: It could flip flop, you could totally arbit. 81 00:04:18,320 --> 00:04:21,320 Speaker 5: But I really don't think the two to three pick 82 00:04:21,400 --> 00:04:22,599 Speaker 5: is very better at this point. 83 00:04:23,000 --> 00:04:26,680 Speaker 4: So Brian, by that logic we talked about this off there, 84 00:04:27,040 --> 00:04:29,680 Speaker 4: should we be buying the dip for the number two 85 00:04:29,680 --> 00:04:30,680 Speaker 4: pick now for Scoot. 86 00:04:32,680 --> 00:04:34,600 Speaker 1: I mean, look, if you're not gonna do it now, 87 00:04:34,680 --> 00:04:37,039 Speaker 1: then just don't do it because it's plus three seventy. 88 00:04:37,320 --> 00:04:39,560 Speaker 1: If you think Scoot is going to be the number one, 89 00:04:39,680 --> 00:04:42,440 Speaker 1: number two overall pick, and you're like, to hell with 90 00:04:42,480 --> 00:04:45,120 Speaker 1: Wolves's reporting, then now would be the time to buy that. 91 00:04:45,600 --> 00:04:50,200 Speaker 1: Look wose is, like Lucas said, he's probably the most 92 00:04:50,279 --> 00:04:53,080 Speaker 1: plugged in guy when it comes to the NBA. Doesn't 93 00:04:53,160 --> 00:04:55,920 Speaker 1: mean you're betting a thousand. Nobody does. And we saw 94 00:04:56,000 --> 00:04:59,000 Speaker 1: us with the draft last year, so you know it's 95 00:04:59,040 --> 00:05:02,080 Speaker 1: warranted to the at this with a healthy bit of skepticism. 96 00:05:02,560 --> 00:05:05,880 Speaker 1: And I think the number for Brandon Miller and minus 97 00:05:05,920 --> 00:05:09,240 Speaker 1: six fifty is like, it's kind of crazy considering where 98 00:05:09,279 --> 00:05:11,760 Speaker 1: we just were with Scoot Henderson being the favorite yesterday 99 00:05:12,160 --> 00:05:14,520 Speaker 1: at I believe minus two twenty at one point, and 100 00:05:14,560 --> 00:05:16,800 Speaker 1: probably you know different depending on the books you're looking at, 101 00:05:16,880 --> 00:05:19,840 Speaker 1: but it looked almost solidified, like all right, this is 102 00:05:19,839 --> 00:05:21,560 Speaker 1: where we are. But this is a draft and this 103 00:05:21,600 --> 00:05:23,320 Speaker 1: is what can happen, and this is the craziness that 104 00:05:23,360 --> 00:05:25,480 Speaker 1: comes with it. In the days leading up to it, 105 00:05:26,120 --> 00:05:29,360 Speaker 1: things can change. And with Charlotte though, I mean, if 106 00:05:29,360 --> 00:05:31,919 Speaker 1: you're looking at it from a basketball standpoint, right, the 107 00:05:32,000 --> 00:05:33,680 Speaker 1: case for this is kind of if you look on 108 00:05:33,720 --> 00:05:36,720 Speaker 1: the court, Brandon Miller would just come in and fill 109 00:05:36,760 --> 00:05:40,839 Speaker 1: out what Mile Miles bridges was for them in terms 110 00:05:40,880 --> 00:05:44,120 Speaker 1: of a forward who is athletic, who can do some 111 00:05:44,160 --> 00:05:46,680 Speaker 1: things with the ball, who can be a complimentary piece 112 00:05:46,680 --> 00:05:48,560 Speaker 1: to LaMelo Ball. And if you look at it from 113 00:05:48,560 --> 00:05:51,279 Speaker 1: that perspective, it's like, okay, even from a basketball perspective, 114 00:05:51,320 --> 00:05:54,160 Speaker 1: this makes more sense than Scoot Henderson and LaMelo Ball 115 00:05:54,440 --> 00:05:56,680 Speaker 1: being in the same backcourt. So you can talk yourself 116 00:05:56,680 --> 00:05:59,719 Speaker 1: into it that way too. And with Scoot Henderson, Yeah, 117 00:05:59,760 --> 00:06:02,599 Speaker 1: if Portland is going to move off Damian Lillard, which 118 00:06:02,640 --> 00:06:06,479 Speaker 1: we don't know what was also reporting as of today 119 00:06:05,640 --> 00:06:09,520 Speaker 1: that the Portland Trailblazers are not taking calls on Damian 120 00:06:09,560 --> 00:06:13,000 Speaker 1: Lillard right now, which we all know they're probably like, 121 00:06:13,040 --> 00:06:15,240 Speaker 1: maybe there's some truth to that. But as soon as 122 00:06:15,240 --> 00:06:18,719 Speaker 1: the draft happens, we're gonna know what Portland's actually going 123 00:06:18,760 --> 00:06:21,520 Speaker 1: to do next, because they're going to either use or 124 00:06:21,640 --> 00:06:23,960 Speaker 1: keep the number three overall pick, and then we'll sort 125 00:06:23,960 --> 00:06:26,000 Speaker 1: of figure out Damian Lillard thing as it goes. That 126 00:06:26,080 --> 00:06:28,320 Speaker 1: affects what we're going to see in the draft ultimately, 127 00:06:28,520 --> 00:06:32,120 Speaker 1: because Scoot Henderson might go to Portland. But I think 128 00:06:32,240 --> 00:06:35,720 Speaker 1: right now, ultimately, if you think Scoot Henderson is going 129 00:06:35,760 --> 00:06:38,400 Speaker 1: to be the number two overall pick, then now would 130 00:06:38,400 --> 00:06:40,360 Speaker 1: be the time to buy it. For me, the number 131 00:06:40,400 --> 00:06:42,280 Speaker 1: two overall pick is kind of just a stay away 132 00:06:42,320 --> 00:06:44,720 Speaker 1: because I don't have a handle on who's actually going 133 00:06:44,760 --> 00:06:46,520 Speaker 1: to be number two at this point because it's gone 134 00:06:46,560 --> 00:06:49,039 Speaker 1: back and forth so many times. I think basketball wise, 135 00:06:49,080 --> 00:06:52,560 Speaker 1: one thing makes sense. I think player wise, another thing 136 00:06:52,600 --> 00:06:55,320 Speaker 1: makes sense because to me, basketball wise, Brandon Miller is 137 00:06:55,320 --> 00:06:58,599 Speaker 1: a better fit than Charlotte Scoot Henderson in a post 138 00:06:58,680 --> 00:07:01,880 Speaker 1: Damian Lillard society Portland potentially, But if you're asking me, 139 00:07:01,920 --> 00:07:04,160 Speaker 1: who's the better player is Scoot Henderson? But in terms 140 00:07:04,200 --> 00:07:06,240 Speaker 1: of betting on the draft, neither of those things matter. 141 00:07:06,800 --> 00:07:09,000 Speaker 4: Yeah, And I think the key thing too that we 142 00:07:09,120 --> 00:07:12,920 Speaker 4: both all of us really can't fathom at this stage, 143 00:07:12,960 --> 00:07:17,120 Speaker 4: or at least materialize, is the potential for trades as 144 00:07:17,160 --> 00:07:19,840 Speaker 4: we get closer to the draft, that a team might 145 00:07:20,240 --> 00:07:22,960 Speaker 4: you know, pay the price and be willing to trade 146 00:07:23,040 --> 00:07:24,760 Speaker 4: up to Charlotte to give them what they want to 147 00:07:24,800 --> 00:07:27,440 Speaker 4: get scooped like a Pelicans could, or even at the 148 00:07:27,520 --> 00:07:29,800 Speaker 4: number three pick, where the Blazers might just say, you 149 00:07:29,880 --> 00:07:32,160 Speaker 4: know what, the scoop pick isn't gonna work. We're gonna 150 00:07:32,240 --> 00:07:34,000 Speaker 4: keep Dame. We got to phish them out too, but 151 00:07:34,200 --> 00:07:37,840 Speaker 4: at the same time they're all going second or third. Luca, 152 00:07:37,840 --> 00:07:41,000 Speaker 4: I wanted to ask you this because you compile in 153 00:07:41,160 --> 00:07:45,040 Speaker 4: census basically mock drafts where you're able to kind of determine, 154 00:07:45,360 --> 00:07:48,640 Speaker 4: you know, a draft slot for each respective player, and 155 00:07:49,240 --> 00:07:53,120 Speaker 4: this week specifically, everybody's coming out of the woodwork with 156 00:07:53,120 --> 00:07:56,160 Speaker 4: a mock draft, and people who aren't insiders, you'll see them, 157 00:07:56,360 --> 00:07:57,600 Speaker 4: you know, random publication. 158 00:07:57,760 --> 00:08:01,720 Speaker 2: Some influence the markets, some don't. I wanted to know from. 159 00:08:01,600 --> 00:08:04,680 Speaker 4: Your perspective, especially as somebody who sees all these come 160 00:08:04,680 --> 00:08:07,000 Speaker 4: through and then seeing these new ones come through late 161 00:08:07,200 --> 00:08:09,840 Speaker 4: in the week, how do we parse through that? How 162 00:08:09,840 --> 00:08:12,280 Speaker 4: do we find the credible info? Do we just stick 163 00:08:12,320 --> 00:08:14,440 Speaker 4: with the core five? Is there anybody maybe that is 164 00:08:14,520 --> 00:08:17,000 Speaker 4: cracking that top five where they're able to maybe move 165 00:08:17,040 --> 00:08:19,119 Speaker 4: some markets and influence some bedding. 166 00:08:20,160 --> 00:08:20,400 Speaker 3: Yeah. 167 00:08:20,440 --> 00:08:23,040 Speaker 5: So, as I like I usually like NFL draft, I 168 00:08:23,040 --> 00:08:25,840 Speaker 5: start the sheet a lot earlier than the NBA because 169 00:08:25,840 --> 00:08:28,880 Speaker 5: there's just less info at the NBA, And as we 170 00:08:28,960 --> 00:08:31,160 Speaker 5: get closer to the draft date, I really start to 171 00:08:31,240 --> 00:08:33,960 Speaker 5: narrow the mocks down, where if you looked at the 172 00:08:33,960 --> 00:08:35,880 Speaker 5: sheet a week or two ago, I was probably tracking 173 00:08:35,920 --> 00:08:38,839 Speaker 5: like thirty plus mocks, and as of today, I'm tracking 174 00:08:38,880 --> 00:08:42,480 Speaker 5: about like twenty, so I'm kind of trimming the fat 175 00:08:42,520 --> 00:08:46,000 Speaker 5: and really just focusing on the people that like we 176 00:08:46,080 --> 00:08:49,640 Speaker 5: think are connected or are good at mocks, and those 177 00:08:49,679 --> 00:08:55,400 Speaker 5: four like the Wasserman, Caravoni, the scene and O'Connor, like 178 00:08:55,400 --> 00:08:59,280 Speaker 5: definitely the Core four, and you can totally tell. And 179 00:08:59,400 --> 00:09:02,440 Speaker 5: when I'm entering in like an updated mock, like I'm 180 00:09:02,440 --> 00:09:04,240 Speaker 5: just up. I'm not like deleting it then adding it. 181 00:09:04,280 --> 00:09:07,400 Speaker 5: I'm kind of like and I'll see where the last 182 00:09:07,440 --> 00:09:10,880 Speaker 5: mock was and where the updated position is for that player, 183 00:09:10,880 --> 00:09:12,920 Speaker 5: And like the biggest tell tale is like if they 184 00:09:12,920 --> 00:09:14,800 Speaker 5: had a player at like in the thirties or the 185 00:09:14,840 --> 00:09:17,480 Speaker 5: late twenties and then move them into the teams, Like 186 00:09:17,559 --> 00:09:19,360 Speaker 5: that's like a big move depending on who it is. 187 00:09:19,400 --> 00:09:22,840 Speaker 5: And you kind of just have to pay attention to those. 188 00:09:22,880 --> 00:09:26,440 Speaker 5: And then also like really like the ones that I've cut, 189 00:09:26,520 --> 00:09:30,120 Speaker 5: like I don't even look at anymore because in the main, 190 00:09:30,200 --> 00:09:35,400 Speaker 5: guys like those Core four updating it multiple times within 191 00:09:35,440 --> 00:09:37,840 Speaker 5: the next twenty four hours, which is key in like 192 00:09:37,880 --> 00:09:40,360 Speaker 5: really reading the context within each pick is probably the 193 00:09:40,400 --> 00:09:43,240 Speaker 5: most important part is at this point because they'll say, 194 00:09:43,280 --> 00:09:45,480 Speaker 5: like the other options for this pick, and if the 195 00:09:45,480 --> 00:09:49,040 Speaker 5: player stock is falling or rising, et cetera, which is 196 00:09:49,080 --> 00:09:52,880 Speaker 5: like the intel stuff within the mocks, there's even more 197 00:09:52,920 --> 00:09:57,120 Speaker 5: important probably than where they actually are putting in the pick. Well. 198 00:09:57,120 --> 00:09:59,360 Speaker 4: One of the things too, Brian, we talked about this 199 00:09:59,400 --> 00:10:01,720 Speaker 4: off airboat, some of these drafts that come out this week, 200 00:10:01,760 --> 00:10:04,640 Speaker 4: and how they'll take some wild swings on guys that 201 00:10:04,679 --> 00:10:08,480 Speaker 4: are probably consensus in between five or seven, but then 202 00:10:08,520 --> 00:10:11,160 Speaker 4: they'll slot them in at like thirteen or something like that. 203 00:10:11,200 --> 00:10:14,120 Speaker 4: You're just like, how did you get to this logical ending? 204 00:10:14,559 --> 00:10:17,319 Speaker 4: And as someone who is probably reading some of these 205 00:10:17,360 --> 00:10:20,040 Speaker 4: mocks and having the same questions I am, how do 206 00:10:20,080 --> 00:10:23,160 Speaker 4: we make sure that we're not being married to that 207 00:10:23,240 --> 00:10:25,160 Speaker 4: info and sticking to our guns. 208 00:10:25,760 --> 00:10:28,680 Speaker 1: I mean, you got to be alert first and foremost. 209 00:10:28,880 --> 00:10:31,040 Speaker 1: It's not easy because, as you said, there's so many 210 00:10:31,040 --> 00:10:33,880 Speaker 1: people doing it at this point, right and I will 211 00:10:33,880 --> 00:10:36,920 Speaker 1: remind people it's lying season, it's smoke screen season, like 212 00:10:36,920 --> 00:10:39,960 Speaker 1: this is what's going on in terms of NBA draft world, 213 00:10:40,040 --> 00:10:44,319 Speaker 1: reporting world, and reporting world with air quotes. So one 214 00:10:44,320 --> 00:10:46,439 Speaker 1: of the answers could be yeah, just pray, the other 215 00:10:46,480 --> 00:10:49,080 Speaker 1: one be alert and know what you're looking at and 216 00:10:49,160 --> 00:10:52,240 Speaker 1: see how really things align with these mock drafts, because 217 00:10:52,800 --> 00:10:56,640 Speaker 1: you know, if there's a trend where everybody has somebody 218 00:10:56,679 --> 00:11:00,920 Speaker 1: going somewhere everybody which has happened before, right, then that's 219 00:11:00,920 --> 00:11:03,160 Speaker 1: something worth paying attention to. If somebody else is all 220 00:11:03,160 --> 00:11:04,760 Speaker 1: over the place, maybe that's a player you want to 221 00:11:04,760 --> 00:11:07,800 Speaker 1: stay from betting on. And if you're looking at you know, 222 00:11:07,840 --> 00:11:10,400 Speaker 1: the core for as Luke said, you know, if you're 223 00:11:10,440 --> 00:11:13,720 Speaker 1: looking at Draft Express, obviously they're very reputable, Like there's 224 00:11:13,720 --> 00:11:17,720 Speaker 1: somebody you're going to look at. The Ringer Tankathon also 225 00:11:17,760 --> 00:11:21,280 Speaker 1: has a mock you know, bleacher Report, like we'll compile 226 00:11:21,320 --> 00:11:24,320 Speaker 1: all of them and sort of see, but I think 227 00:11:24,600 --> 00:11:27,920 Speaker 1: I think aggregating them is important in terms of seeing 228 00:11:28,000 --> 00:11:32,760 Speaker 1: like who's going where and what range, and also understanding 229 00:11:32,840 --> 00:11:38,000 Speaker 1: that how front offices work because teams like the Heat, 230 00:11:38,080 --> 00:11:42,280 Speaker 1: the Raptors, the Spurs, though this year may be less 231 00:11:42,320 --> 00:11:44,400 Speaker 1: relevant because we know who the Spurs are getting, but 232 00:11:45,120 --> 00:11:47,360 Speaker 1: teams have a certain archetype they want to go for, 233 00:11:47,440 --> 00:11:49,800 Speaker 1: They have certain roster needs that they need to account 234 00:11:49,840 --> 00:11:52,560 Speaker 1: for if guys are going to be on the move, 235 00:11:53,080 --> 00:11:55,120 Speaker 1: Like if you know, if you know the Bulls are 236 00:11:55,120 --> 00:11:56,959 Speaker 1: going to potentially blow it up. They're probably going to 237 00:11:57,000 --> 00:11:59,120 Speaker 1: go best player available if you know that there's a 238 00:11:59,160 --> 00:12:01,000 Speaker 1: position to fit some where else. Like, those kind of 239 00:12:01,000 --> 00:12:02,840 Speaker 1: things are other things to look out for as well. 240 00:12:03,000 --> 00:12:05,040 Speaker 4: For sure, And those three teams that you mentioned are 241 00:12:05,040 --> 00:12:08,480 Speaker 4: notorious for being tight lipped as far as what their 242 00:12:08,520 --> 00:12:12,720 Speaker 4: intentions are. So if unless it's a credible reporter that's 243 00:12:12,840 --> 00:12:15,600 Speaker 4: in that market that is reporting that, sometimes I usually 244 00:12:15,600 --> 00:12:18,360 Speaker 4: just kind of disregard. Like if you're a national reporter 245 00:12:19,000 --> 00:12:21,320 Speaker 4: talking about what the Spurs and Greg Papavich are going 246 00:12:21,360 --> 00:12:24,560 Speaker 4: to do outside of you know, this year, I'm usually 247 00:12:24,600 --> 00:12:26,240 Speaker 4: not going to take too much. I'll take it with 248 00:12:26,320 --> 00:12:27,960 Speaker 4: a grain of salt, I guess, is what I would say, 249 00:12:28,040 --> 00:12:31,600 Speaker 4: just because again, they're usually pretty close to the best 250 00:12:31,640 --> 00:12:36,079 Speaker 4: on sharing what they intend to do. Now as far 251 00:12:36,080 --> 00:12:39,880 Speaker 4: as intentions go, the over under markets can really show 252 00:12:39,920 --> 00:12:42,000 Speaker 4: some intentions of teams as far as the way that 253 00:12:42,000 --> 00:12:45,000 Speaker 4: those players are moving and rising up the draft boards. 254 00:12:45,440 --> 00:12:48,200 Speaker 4: And look, now, Luke, we just joked about this. Some 255 00:12:48,280 --> 00:12:50,560 Speaker 4: markets are opening up for over under markets for certain 256 00:12:50,600 --> 00:12:53,320 Speaker 4: players just as we even as we get closer to 257 00:12:53,360 --> 00:12:55,760 Speaker 4: the draft. But a lot of those original ones, the 258 00:12:55,800 --> 00:12:58,360 Speaker 4: ones that we talked about last week, and even coming 259 00:12:58,400 --> 00:13:01,640 Speaker 4: into today, a lot of them are seemingly been steamed out. 260 00:13:01,840 --> 00:13:05,080 Speaker 4: Is kind of what I all outrageous odds on one side, 261 00:13:05,080 --> 00:13:07,120 Speaker 4: maybe minus two hundred or more, whether it be to 262 00:13:07,160 --> 00:13:11,480 Speaker 4: go under their draft slot or over. But this year, 263 00:13:11,679 --> 00:13:14,080 Speaker 4: I asked you this last week who was this year's 264 00:13:14,200 --> 00:13:17,000 Speaker 4: Jalen Williams, the guy who went thirteenth overall to the 265 00:13:17,040 --> 00:13:20,640 Speaker 4: Oklahoma City Thunder, and that seems to be Kobe Buffkin 266 00:13:20,679 --> 00:13:24,640 Speaker 4: from the Michigan Wolverines. When you were tracking this bet 267 00:13:24,720 --> 00:13:28,839 Speaker 4: in the Action Network app, you had it around fourteen. 268 00:13:28,360 --> 00:13:29,960 Speaker 2: And a half is what you tracked it at. 269 00:13:30,000 --> 00:13:33,320 Speaker 4: And that line has since moved at sportsbooks to twelve 270 00:13:33,360 --> 00:13:35,880 Speaker 4: and a half, with the under already at like minus 271 00:13:35,920 --> 00:13:39,800 Speaker 4: one sixty at FanDuel. Is there a chance that this stage, 272 00:13:39,840 --> 00:13:41,920 Speaker 4: with the way that he's rising up boards, that maybe 273 00:13:41,960 --> 00:13:45,200 Speaker 4: we could see him get into a top ten position, 274 00:13:45,320 --> 00:13:47,040 Speaker 4: or maybe a team who trades up to the top 275 00:13:47,040 --> 00:13:49,920 Speaker 4: ten for Buffkin seeing him around plus two hundred right 276 00:13:49,960 --> 00:13:51,160 Speaker 4: now for a top ten pick. 277 00:13:51,600 --> 00:13:54,560 Speaker 5: So I actually tried to under sixteen and a half, 278 00:13:55,000 --> 00:13:56,600 Speaker 5: which gives you an idea of like just. 279 00:13:56,559 --> 00:13:59,520 Speaker 3: How much it's a crazy movement where. 280 00:13:59,520 --> 00:14:03,280 Speaker 5: It was Williams last year, Chris Fronte the year before, 281 00:14:03,320 --> 00:14:06,559 Speaker 5: and both those unders hit, and it's even at eleven 282 00:14:06,600 --> 00:14:09,520 Speaker 5: and a half at this point, which I think the 283 00:14:09,559 --> 00:14:11,720 Speaker 5: tipping point for like my interest in terms of the 284 00:14:11,760 --> 00:14:14,640 Speaker 5: over under would be thirteen and a half. There are 285 00:14:14,720 --> 00:14:17,360 Speaker 5: rumors that like the raptors are like the promise for him, 286 00:14:18,000 --> 00:14:20,760 Speaker 5: and just with trades, et cetera. Twelve and a half 287 00:14:20,800 --> 00:14:23,720 Speaker 5: eleven and a half, it's just getting really really tight 288 00:14:23,720 --> 00:14:25,280 Speaker 5: At that point you might as well just be betting 289 00:14:25,320 --> 00:14:30,160 Speaker 5: like a top ten pick or like exact odds. But yeah, 290 00:14:30,200 --> 00:14:33,000 Speaker 5: I mean, you couldn't convince me to bet and over 291 00:14:33,120 --> 00:14:36,200 Speaker 5: on this guy at any point right now, Like even 292 00:14:36,240 --> 00:14:37,920 Speaker 5: at eleven and a half, twelve and a half, it's 293 00:14:37,960 --> 00:14:41,080 Speaker 5: still an under and his stock is just scorching and 294 00:14:41,160 --> 00:14:45,480 Speaker 5: other guys are falling because of it. Where he's under 295 00:14:45,960 --> 00:14:50,000 Speaker 5: getting steamed and his momentum being so on fire is 296 00:14:50,000 --> 00:14:53,560 Speaker 5: pushing guys like Grady Dick, Cason Wallace, those types of 297 00:14:53,560 --> 00:14:57,520 Speaker 5: guys further back where Cason Wallace is over under was 298 00:14:57,520 --> 00:14:59,280 Speaker 5: at twelve and a half and now it's at thirteen 299 00:14:59,320 --> 00:15:01,560 Speaker 5: and a half. In the over is getting crushed, and 300 00:15:01,760 --> 00:15:03,840 Speaker 5: I still think Casin, depending on the juice, is probably 301 00:15:03,840 --> 00:15:06,360 Speaker 5: one of the better overs you can bet given the market, 302 00:15:07,440 --> 00:15:11,160 Speaker 5: even though I'm on his under of course. But yeah, 303 00:15:11,480 --> 00:15:14,440 Speaker 5: he's yeah, I don't think there's any four like I 304 00:15:14,520 --> 00:15:17,400 Speaker 5: would will not be shocked like I'm almost He's one 305 00:15:17,400 --> 00:15:19,400 Speaker 5: of the best top ten bets you can make. I 306 00:15:19,440 --> 00:15:22,080 Speaker 5: won't be shocked if he goes eight or nine, him 307 00:15:22,120 --> 00:15:23,640 Speaker 5: or Balall it's going to get in the top ten. 308 00:15:23,680 --> 00:15:26,760 Speaker 4: I think, Brian, are you buying the Buffkin hype or 309 00:15:26,800 --> 00:15:29,200 Speaker 4: are you saying no thanks based on what you saw 310 00:15:29,360 --> 00:15:30,520 Speaker 4: Michigan playing this year. 311 00:15:30,760 --> 00:15:34,000 Speaker 1: Well, I'll take the Ali up because Blacool of Bally 312 00:15:34,120 --> 00:15:36,720 Speaker 1: is probably the one that I'm looking at in the 313 00:15:36,760 --> 00:15:40,240 Speaker 1: top ten right now. I do think Kobe, yeah, yeah, 314 00:15:40,280 --> 00:15:42,600 Speaker 1: I do think Kobe Buffkin can get there. But Blakul 315 00:15:42,600 --> 00:15:44,480 Speaker 1: of BALI like he's he's kind of gotten the win 316 00:15:44,560 --> 00:15:46,760 Speaker 1: by Yama Bump because he played with him in France. 317 00:15:46,840 --> 00:15:49,320 Speaker 1: But he's also he has a lot of those tools 318 00:15:49,320 --> 00:15:51,760 Speaker 1: we talked about this last week. He has with a 319 00:15:51,800 --> 00:15:53,920 Speaker 1: lot of NBA teams, Like in terms of being a 320 00:15:53,960 --> 00:15:56,160 Speaker 1: big issuing who has a lot of tools, you can 321 00:15:56,200 --> 00:16:00,320 Speaker 1: refine that if he really develops the way he he 322 00:16:00,320 --> 00:16:02,040 Speaker 1: could be one of the best players of this draft. 323 00:16:02,600 --> 00:16:05,600 Speaker 1: And I think more teams are seeing that now. He 324 00:16:05,680 --> 00:16:08,000 Speaker 1: was mocked sort of all over the place over the 325 00:16:08,040 --> 00:16:10,160 Speaker 1: last few weeks. You saw him at twenty five, you 326 00:16:10,240 --> 00:16:13,920 Speaker 1: saw him in that fifteen to eighteen nineteen range, and 327 00:16:13,960 --> 00:16:17,040 Speaker 1: now you're seeing some mock drafts where he's climbed not 328 00:16:17,080 --> 00:16:19,760 Speaker 1: only into the lottery but to the top ten. Right now, 329 00:16:20,320 --> 00:16:22,520 Speaker 1: I think he has enough steam to where he can 330 00:16:22,640 --> 00:16:25,640 Speaker 1: land into that back part that ninth tenth pick maybe 331 00:16:25,800 --> 00:16:27,760 Speaker 1: and right now for him to be a top ten pick. 332 00:16:27,840 --> 00:16:31,160 Speaker 1: Blawpool of Bali, that's plus two ten. I think that's 333 00:16:31,400 --> 00:16:34,400 Speaker 1: that's something. I mean, obviously you weren't going to get 334 00:16:34,400 --> 00:16:36,040 Speaker 1: that number before. It was going to be a lot 335 00:16:36,080 --> 00:16:38,840 Speaker 1: more profitable because the rise didn't sort of come. But 336 00:16:39,160 --> 00:16:41,360 Speaker 1: we're here now, and I think Blawcool of Bali is 337 00:16:41,400 --> 00:16:44,400 Speaker 1: somebody to look at in terms of being this year's 338 00:16:44,440 --> 00:16:48,440 Speaker 1: Jalen Williams perhaps, And he's kind of that the overseas 339 00:16:48,480 --> 00:16:51,160 Speaker 1: mystery man that people are still learning about that he 340 00:16:51,360 --> 00:16:53,600 Speaker 1: wasn't playing that well early on in the year with 341 00:16:53,680 --> 00:16:56,040 Speaker 1: Metropolitans and then sort of picked it up and you're 342 00:16:56,040 --> 00:16:59,280 Speaker 1: seeing the flashes and there are some some road maps 343 00:16:59,320 --> 00:17:01,640 Speaker 1: to him becoming a really good NBA player, and he's 344 00:17:01,680 --> 00:17:03,560 Speaker 1: still a teenager. Like he's one of these guys in 345 00:17:03,600 --> 00:17:05,720 Speaker 1: this draft who's really young, eighteen nineteen years old. 346 00:17:06,080 --> 00:17:08,159 Speaker 2: Yeah, for the top guy in the draft. 347 00:17:08,480 --> 00:17:11,280 Speaker 5: For the top ten, Like there's outs for even both 348 00:17:11,320 --> 00:17:13,560 Speaker 5: of them to get in where like you have the 349 00:17:13,680 --> 00:17:15,920 Speaker 5: Jazz at eight, No, you have the Wizards at eight, 350 00:17:16,200 --> 00:17:19,280 Speaker 5: Jazz at nine, and then the MAVs at ten, which 351 00:17:19,320 --> 00:17:21,680 Speaker 5: it seems like a trade is already in place, like 352 00:17:22,000 --> 00:17:26,520 Speaker 5: every rumor you're hearing is which Lively is the consensus favorite, 353 00:17:26,560 --> 00:17:28,840 Speaker 5: who is plus two hundred as well to go ten. 354 00:17:29,280 --> 00:17:31,879 Speaker 5: But it feels like the ten is as good, it's 355 00:17:31,920 --> 00:17:33,879 Speaker 5: almost as good as like done in terms of that 356 00:17:34,040 --> 00:17:36,119 Speaker 5: a team trading out, which very well could be like 357 00:17:36,119 --> 00:17:37,360 Speaker 5: a team like the Raptors, etc. 358 00:17:37,600 --> 00:17:38,600 Speaker 3: To trade in to. 359 00:17:38,680 --> 00:17:41,280 Speaker 5: The ten spot, which that's let's just say two and 360 00:17:41,320 --> 00:17:46,879 Speaker 5: a half outs for those two guys, assuming and Black 361 00:17:46,920 --> 00:17:49,600 Speaker 5: and well Black would have to go probably six for 362 00:17:49,680 --> 00:17:51,719 Speaker 5: him to go for those two to be open, but 363 00:17:51,840 --> 00:17:54,160 Speaker 5: still all three of them eight, nine, ten for sure. 364 00:17:54,240 --> 00:17:56,520 Speaker 4: Yeah, And what you mentioned earlier I thought was a 365 00:17:56,600 --> 00:17:59,639 Speaker 4: key point that if Kobe Buffkins stock is rising to 366 00:17:59,720 --> 00:18:02,040 Speaker 4: go perhaps in the top ten, that means guys like 367 00:18:02,240 --> 00:18:05,680 Speaker 4: Blao or even a Grady Dick couldn't necessarily drop out 368 00:18:05,720 --> 00:18:08,719 Speaker 4: of the top ten. Brian, I wanted to ask you 369 00:18:08,840 --> 00:18:12,480 Speaker 4: if a better is looking at Blao and Buffkin. Between 370 00:18:12,520 --> 00:18:14,600 Speaker 4: those two, they're both around plus two hundred plus two 371 00:18:14,680 --> 00:18:16,800 Speaker 4: ten to go in the top ten, would you prefer 372 00:18:16,880 --> 00:18:20,359 Speaker 4: Balao over Kobe Bufkin at this At this point. 373 00:18:20,040 --> 00:18:23,440 Speaker 1: I think he has more intrigue for me personally and 374 00:18:23,560 --> 00:18:26,240 Speaker 1: for other people and teams and things of that nature. 375 00:18:26,320 --> 00:18:27,720 Speaker 1: So yeah, I would probably lean that way. 376 00:18:28,160 --> 00:18:30,480 Speaker 4: And then Grady Dick as well, who could potentially drop 377 00:18:30,480 --> 00:18:32,480 Speaker 4: out of the top ten. I mean, he was the 378 00:18:32,480 --> 00:18:34,560 Speaker 4: Gatoray Player of the Year last year, played really well. 379 00:18:34,600 --> 00:18:37,960 Speaker 4: With Kansas top ten picks sitting there around plus three hundred, 380 00:18:38,680 --> 00:18:40,800 Speaker 4: the ninth and ten pick we just mentioned, both the 381 00:18:40,880 --> 00:18:43,480 Speaker 4: Jazz and the Mavericks could use a shooter and a 382 00:18:43,480 --> 00:18:46,000 Speaker 4: player like him. Do you think there's some value to 383 00:18:46,000 --> 00:18:47,879 Speaker 4: still be looking at Grady Dick at top ten or 384 00:18:47,880 --> 00:18:49,600 Speaker 4: should we maybe steer clear off of that. 385 00:18:50,200 --> 00:18:52,800 Speaker 1: I think last week was a good time to jump 386 00:18:52,840 --> 00:18:55,320 Speaker 1: on it. The odds are still relatively the same, like 387 00:18:55,359 --> 00:18:59,200 Speaker 1: in terms of value. But now there are questions about, Okay, 388 00:18:59,560 --> 00:19:01,520 Speaker 1: there is a world, because this is a draft, you 389 00:19:01,520 --> 00:19:04,080 Speaker 1: have to account for just unpredictability. There's a world where 390 00:19:04,440 --> 00:19:07,000 Speaker 1: both guys were talking about, Kobe Buffin and Blacula Valley 391 00:19:07,119 --> 00:19:09,200 Speaker 1: are in the top ten, and then it's like Grady 392 00:19:09,240 --> 00:19:11,400 Speaker 1: Dick seems to be one of the two who would 393 00:19:11,480 --> 00:19:15,119 Speaker 1: slide down, you know, and he would then be in 394 00:19:15,160 --> 00:19:18,679 Speaker 1: that twelve, fourteen, thirteen range or something along those lines. 395 00:19:19,119 --> 00:19:20,639 Speaker 1: I still think it makes a lot of sense for 396 00:19:20,680 --> 00:19:23,560 Speaker 1: Grady Dick to go nine or ten, but that doesn't 397 00:19:23,600 --> 00:19:25,400 Speaker 1: really matter in terms of how this could play out, 398 00:19:25,440 --> 00:19:29,120 Speaker 1: because again, Blakoulavali has more intrigue. Kobe Buffkin is sort 399 00:19:29,119 --> 00:19:31,560 Speaker 1: of one of these late risers that we're accounting for now. 400 00:19:31,800 --> 00:19:34,200 Speaker 1: Grady Dick does profile as a type of guy who 401 00:19:34,240 --> 00:19:36,680 Speaker 1: would go in the lottery. Doesn't mean he has to 402 00:19:36,720 --> 00:19:38,960 Speaker 1: go in the top ten though, because he's a big 403 00:19:39,000 --> 00:19:40,679 Speaker 1: wing he could shoot one of the best shooters in 404 00:19:40,680 --> 00:19:44,600 Speaker 1: the draft. Grady did go into Utah, the jokes tell themselves, 405 00:19:44,920 --> 00:19:48,080 Speaker 1: and potentially going to Dallas as well. But it's right 406 00:19:48,160 --> 00:19:50,639 Speaker 1: there for somebody to take it. Is there a world 407 00:19:50,640 --> 00:19:52,200 Speaker 1: where all three of them get in the top ten, 408 00:19:52,280 --> 00:19:54,080 Speaker 1: that's a little bit harder to see because then you 409 00:19:54,119 --> 00:19:57,200 Speaker 1: have to parse through. Okay, early on, it's in whatever 410 00:19:57,359 --> 00:20:01,800 Speaker 1: order when Banyama, Brandon Miller, Scoo Anderson, Jarris Walker will 411 00:20:01,840 --> 00:20:04,520 Speaker 1: be somewhere there, Anthony Black will be somewhere there. Obviously 412 00:20:04,680 --> 00:20:07,680 Speaker 1: Thompson Twins at least I'm in right at least him, 413 00:20:08,240 --> 00:20:10,399 Speaker 1: And then you're going on down the line and it's like, 414 00:20:10,440 --> 00:20:13,439 Speaker 1: all right, how many spots left are we accounting for? 415 00:20:13,600 --> 00:20:14,800 Speaker 1: Then you're just running out of things. 416 00:20:14,840 --> 00:20:16,840 Speaker 4: At that point, I was even just going to say, like, 417 00:20:16,880 --> 00:20:20,320 Speaker 4: you know, Jeris Walker, Anthony Black, both of Thompson Twins, 418 00:20:21,200 --> 00:20:24,159 Speaker 4: Cam Whitmore, who has seen his stock drop obviously with 419 00:20:24,240 --> 00:20:26,840 Speaker 4: some bad workout reports. But I mean he was touted 420 00:20:26,880 --> 00:20:29,080 Speaker 4: as high as the fifth pick in certain spots. So 421 00:20:29,160 --> 00:20:32,040 Speaker 4: somebody's gonna get bumped out of this top ten. So 422 00:20:32,280 --> 00:20:34,600 Speaker 4: just to recap, you're going to be taking blau Kulabali 423 00:20:35,359 --> 00:20:36,800 Speaker 4: in the top ten at this point. 424 00:20:36,920 --> 00:20:39,760 Speaker 5: Sorry, look go ahead, and just to piggyback off that, 425 00:20:39,800 --> 00:20:43,040 Speaker 5: I Grady Dick, where I want to say, like the 426 00:20:43,080 --> 00:20:46,160 Speaker 5: two over unders that are probably like the most sure 427 00:20:46,280 --> 00:20:49,879 Speaker 5: things at this point that are juiced out and depending 428 00:20:49,920 --> 00:20:52,520 Speaker 5: on how much juice you can stomach, because draft juice 429 00:20:52,560 --> 00:20:56,160 Speaker 5: isn't relative to the game like we discussed last week, 430 00:20:56,760 --> 00:21:00,679 Speaker 5: but a specific book lets you parlay draft runners and 431 00:21:00,720 --> 00:21:03,600 Speaker 5: it's crossboard parlaang So it would be like a draft prop, 432 00:21:04,200 --> 00:21:07,600 Speaker 5: NBA draft prop, NHL draft prop, NBA draft pop, literally 433 00:21:07,640 --> 00:21:11,960 Speaker 5: anything else, which the black under eight and a half 434 00:21:12,119 --> 00:21:14,400 Speaker 5: and Grady Dick over ten and a half I think 435 00:21:14,440 --> 00:21:17,800 Speaker 5: are the two best parlay legs of these overrunners right 436 00:21:17,800 --> 00:21:20,800 Speaker 5: now in the market where I think they're both like 437 00:21:20,840 --> 00:21:22,760 Speaker 5: minus three hundred and they might as well be like 438 00:21:22,800 --> 00:21:26,840 Speaker 5: minus a million at this point, given if there's no cash, 439 00:21:26,880 --> 00:21:29,840 Speaker 5: which there could be, but and Grady Dick's going towards 440 00:21:29,840 --> 00:21:31,639 Speaker 5: like the eleven and a half range in most books, 441 00:21:31,640 --> 00:21:33,840 Speaker 5: and black is just sitting at eight and a half. 442 00:21:33,880 --> 00:21:36,920 Speaker 5: And I've used both of those on multiple parlays myself. 443 00:21:37,359 --> 00:21:37,560 Speaker 3: Yeah. 444 00:21:37,600 --> 00:21:40,679 Speaker 4: Absolutely, And Anthony Blackstock is somebody that even though it 445 00:21:40,720 --> 00:21:42,800 Speaker 4: was never foreseeable that he would drop out of the 446 00:21:42,800 --> 00:21:46,120 Speaker 4: top ten, as we get closer to the draft, you know, eight. 447 00:21:45,920 --> 00:21:47,240 Speaker 2: Almost seems too late now. 448 00:21:47,240 --> 00:21:51,239 Speaker 4: It seems like it could be six to the magic now, 449 00:21:51,359 --> 00:21:55,320 Speaker 4: Luke last week you told us, now this is something 450 00:21:55,320 --> 00:21:56,960 Speaker 4: that if betters would have got in on this, they'd 451 00:21:56,960 --> 00:21:59,560 Speaker 4: have the value. At this stage it was specifically for 452 00:22:00,119 --> 00:22:03,600 Speaker 4: match up market and you had said take Jerius Walker 453 00:22:04,000 --> 00:22:07,159 Speaker 4: from the Houston Cougars over Ossier Thompson and it was 454 00:22:07,200 --> 00:22:09,160 Speaker 4: at plus one p fifty. So the way that works 455 00:22:09,240 --> 00:22:12,040 Speaker 4: is you were projecting that Jeris Walker we get picked 456 00:22:12,119 --> 00:22:16,080 Speaker 4: over that specific Thompson twin. Since then that has since 457 00:22:16,119 --> 00:22:18,960 Speaker 4: flipped to minus one thirty five for Walker and plus 458 00:22:19,000 --> 00:22:22,280 Speaker 4: one oh five for Auscers. So again, anybody who's listening 459 00:22:22,359 --> 00:22:24,920 Speaker 4: last week, he got some great value on that pick. Luke, 460 00:22:25,160 --> 00:22:27,840 Speaker 4: just asking from the heavens here, can you please bless 461 00:22:27,920 --> 00:22:30,720 Speaker 4: us with another gym for draft betting. 462 00:22:31,000 --> 00:22:35,320 Speaker 5: Well, and going off of that which I'm not the 463 00:22:35,359 --> 00:22:37,679 Speaker 5: biggest fan of our being or like hedging or anything, 464 00:22:37,680 --> 00:22:42,879 Speaker 5: where when I made that recommendation, Whitmore was still in 465 00:22:42,960 --> 00:22:45,760 Speaker 5: the top five, like we considered it a lock, and 466 00:22:46,119 --> 00:22:48,520 Speaker 5: with a little more falling it has definitely changed the 467 00:22:48,600 --> 00:22:52,040 Speaker 5: dynamic where the Pistons pick is up for grabs and 468 00:22:52,440 --> 00:22:55,840 Speaker 5: I think the rockets at FoST still up for grabs 469 00:22:55,840 --> 00:22:59,159 Speaker 5: two and the mocks I'm seeing from the guys that 470 00:22:59,240 --> 00:23:03,400 Speaker 5: matter within the specifically today a SAR is trending hard 471 00:23:03,400 --> 00:23:06,760 Speaker 5: at pick five. And James Edwards, who's probably the Pistons 472 00:23:07,280 --> 00:23:09,359 Speaker 5: insider that I respect most, like his job as one 473 00:23:09,359 --> 00:23:11,480 Speaker 5: of the Pistons, and he kind of started the whole 474 00:23:11,480 --> 00:23:14,399 Speaker 5: Whitmore fall where he I think it was on a 475 00:23:14,800 --> 00:23:17,080 Speaker 5: podcast with the Vassini he said that the Pistons have 476 00:23:17,160 --> 00:23:20,560 Speaker 5: no interest Whitmore. His workouts were awful, He's gonna fall, 477 00:23:20,600 --> 00:23:23,679 Speaker 5: et cetera. And ASAR has been is number one on 478 00:23:23,720 --> 00:23:26,640 Speaker 5: his Pistons big board, and he's kind of been pumping 479 00:23:26,680 --> 00:23:30,359 Speaker 5: the ASAR bandwagon for the last two days to go five. 480 00:23:31,200 --> 00:23:33,280 Speaker 5: And if you're into arbing, I would not be against 481 00:23:33,680 --> 00:23:38,880 Speaker 5: just taking the ASAR and counting your small margins depending 482 00:23:38,920 --> 00:23:42,480 Speaker 5: on what numbers you get the win. That's a disclaimer 483 00:23:42,520 --> 00:23:45,239 Speaker 5: for that. But my first one I'm going to bring up, 484 00:23:45,320 --> 00:23:48,720 Speaker 5: and these odds are fluctuating, I'm going to go with 485 00:23:49,560 --> 00:23:52,879 Speaker 5: Jordan Walsh first round, which depending on the book that 486 00:23:52,920 --> 00:23:55,840 Speaker 5: you're looking at, you can see anywhere from plus four 487 00:23:55,920 --> 00:23:58,919 Speaker 5: hundred to plus one thousand, and they were thirty to 488 00:23:58,960 --> 00:24:03,840 Speaker 5: one yesterday. But Jordan Walsh is a guy that I 489 00:24:03,880 --> 00:24:05,800 Speaker 5: think can jump into the end of the first round, 490 00:24:05,880 --> 00:24:09,600 Speaker 5: and the Denver Nuggets before we recorded, made a trade 491 00:24:09,600 --> 00:24:12,159 Speaker 5: into the first round and they flopped with They flipped 492 00:24:12,200 --> 00:24:14,760 Speaker 5: with the Pacers, and the Nuggets would be a perfect 493 00:24:14,800 --> 00:24:17,600 Speaker 5: spot for Jordan Walsh. But he's just a guy that 494 00:24:18,359 --> 00:24:21,359 Speaker 5: you've seen in the quote unquote Intel reports, whatever media. 495 00:24:21,359 --> 00:24:24,440 Speaker 5: I'll let he is a riser. And then Wasserman, who's 496 00:24:24,480 --> 00:24:27,280 Speaker 5: one of my or four probably number one going too 497 00:24:27,280 --> 00:24:30,399 Speaker 5: this year. He's been updating his mark like live like 498 00:24:30,680 --> 00:24:33,679 Speaker 5: three or four times a day. No notification, you just 499 00:24:33,720 --> 00:24:35,720 Speaker 5: have to check. And he put Walsh in the first 500 00:24:35,800 --> 00:24:39,199 Speaker 5: round yesterday, which was very telling for me because when 501 00:24:39,240 --> 00:24:42,160 Speaker 5: you get a guy like that's so random, like Washed, 502 00:24:42,160 --> 00:24:44,720 Speaker 5: that hasn't been in any of the mocks up until 503 00:24:44,720 --> 00:24:47,719 Speaker 5: a day before, Like that's not like he's putting him 504 00:24:47,760 --> 00:24:49,600 Speaker 5: in the first round because he ranks him very high. 505 00:24:49,680 --> 00:24:51,320 Speaker 5: Like he's putting him in the first round because he's 506 00:24:51,440 --> 00:24:55,560 Speaker 5: probably hearing something which Walsh could have stayed in college. 507 00:24:56,240 --> 00:24:58,560 Speaker 5: It was somewhat like questionable that he was going into 508 00:24:58,560 --> 00:25:01,440 Speaker 5: the draft because people really didn't see it. And when 509 00:25:01,480 --> 00:25:04,119 Speaker 5: someone like Walsh goes into the draft, you kind of 510 00:25:04,119 --> 00:25:06,600 Speaker 5: have to read the tea leaves where he has an 511 00:25:06,600 --> 00:25:10,320 Speaker 5: expectation probably higher, whether it's a promise or whatever it 512 00:25:10,400 --> 00:25:13,240 Speaker 5: is relative to like the public's perception, which is the 513 00:25:13,240 --> 00:25:16,720 Speaker 5: first round you would have to assume. And he's a 514 00:25:16,720 --> 00:25:21,480 Speaker 5: defensive beast, which translates, well, he's just a rock solid 515 00:25:21,680 --> 00:25:23,359 Speaker 5: prospect that you're going to have on your team for 516 00:25:23,400 --> 00:25:24,960 Speaker 5: the next ten years. Like he's never going to be 517 00:25:25,000 --> 00:25:26,320 Speaker 5: a superstar, but when you're in the end of the 518 00:25:26,359 --> 00:25:28,760 Speaker 5: first round, like, these are the type of guys you want, 519 00:25:29,800 --> 00:25:32,960 Speaker 5: and it's just it's it's an easy one for not 520 00:25:33,119 --> 00:25:35,240 Speaker 5: a lot of that's that are out there first round 521 00:25:35,320 --> 00:25:36,919 Speaker 5: wise that still have value. 522 00:25:37,480 --> 00:25:38,640 Speaker 3: Walsh, I would still play. 523 00:25:38,440 --> 00:25:40,760 Speaker 5: At four to one, five to one, six, whatever it is, 524 00:25:41,080 --> 00:25:44,119 Speaker 5: it's a good one or not really, I would not 525 00:25:44,280 --> 00:25:47,440 Speaker 5: lay the juice on him. But plus money, yeah. 526 00:25:47,600 --> 00:25:52,000 Speaker 4: Yeah, Jordan Walsh razorbacks first round sitting right now at 527 00:25:52,000 --> 00:25:55,000 Speaker 4: plus four hundred at fan duel to go in. 528 00:25:54,880 --> 00:25:57,000 Speaker 2: The first round. We'll talk about more first round. 529 00:25:56,760 --> 00:25:59,240 Speaker 4: Picks that we like when we get closer to the 530 00:25:59,320 --> 00:26:01,400 Speaker 4: end of the show. But Brian, I wanted to ask 531 00:26:01,440 --> 00:26:04,160 Speaker 4: you a question because of what Luke just mentioned about 532 00:26:04,160 --> 00:26:08,840 Speaker 4: how the Detroit Beat writers are, you know, bringing the 533 00:26:08,880 --> 00:26:11,600 Speaker 4: flag for Osier Thompson to go fifth overall and right 534 00:26:11,640 --> 00:26:14,359 Speaker 4: now at FanDuel As we were recording, these odds have 535 00:26:14,440 --> 00:26:17,600 Speaker 4: flipped where Jaris Walker was the favorite to go fifth 536 00:26:17,600 --> 00:26:20,439 Speaker 4: overall when we first started the show at plus nine 537 00:26:20,440 --> 00:26:23,160 Speaker 4: to eighty and has since flipped now with Aussier being 538 00:26:23,200 --> 00:26:26,080 Speaker 4: the favorite at plus one fifty and Walker has since 539 00:26:26,160 --> 00:26:27,520 Speaker 4: dropped to plus two ten. 540 00:26:28,119 --> 00:26:29,159 Speaker 2: We talked about. 541 00:26:28,920 --> 00:26:33,200 Speaker 4: Him going fifth overall to the Pistons last week. Are 542 00:26:33,200 --> 00:26:35,399 Speaker 4: we late to the bus on this, like, should we 543 00:26:35,440 --> 00:26:38,159 Speaker 4: still consider Jaris Walker at fifth overall or are we 544 00:26:38,200 --> 00:26:41,080 Speaker 4: going to give credence to this report coming out of Detroit? 545 00:26:41,680 --> 00:26:44,840 Speaker 1: You could because there was a report either yesterday or 546 00:26:44,880 --> 00:26:48,480 Speaker 1: to day before I'm forgetting from Jonathan Cavoni who said, look, 547 00:26:48,640 --> 00:26:51,760 Speaker 1: Utah is a team that could trade up to number 548 00:26:51,800 --> 00:26:56,680 Speaker 1: five and target Jaris Walker. And that you know, Cavoni's 549 00:26:56,680 --> 00:26:58,640 Speaker 1: obviously another one of these guys that you look at 550 00:26:58,640 --> 00:27:01,239 Speaker 1: this time of year or whatever. So it feels like 551 00:27:01,320 --> 00:27:03,320 Speaker 1: it feels like number two overall is going to be 552 00:27:03,320 --> 00:27:06,040 Speaker 1: between us here, Thompson and Jaris Walker. Maybe that's going 553 00:27:06,080 --> 00:27:08,520 Speaker 1: to play out that way. I like Jaris Walker. There's 554 00:27:08,560 --> 00:27:11,960 Speaker 1: still whether or not the Pistons have to pick up well, 555 00:27:11,960 --> 00:27:13,760 Speaker 1: then again, it depends on who's trading for it, right. 556 00:27:13,760 --> 00:27:15,960 Speaker 1: If they do, in fact trade to pick for Detroit, 557 00:27:15,960 --> 00:27:18,000 Speaker 1: it doesn't make a lot of sense though, And he's 558 00:27:18,040 --> 00:27:21,000 Speaker 1: somebody who worked out with them. Apparently it went well 559 00:27:21,080 --> 00:27:24,040 Speaker 1: and with the Detroit Pistons. They do have a lot 560 00:27:24,080 --> 00:27:26,600 Speaker 1: of options though, because they have Ivy already, they have 561 00:27:27,240 --> 00:27:30,560 Speaker 1: Kate Cunningham, and it's basically like you know that they're 562 00:27:30,640 --> 00:27:33,159 Speaker 1: not going to draft small at that position. If they 563 00:27:33,160 --> 00:27:34,600 Speaker 1: get a wing, it's going to be a big wing. 564 00:27:34,640 --> 00:27:36,520 Speaker 1: If they get a big it's probably not going to 565 00:27:36,560 --> 00:27:38,560 Speaker 1: be a true center because they're still testing out the 566 00:27:38,560 --> 00:27:41,600 Speaker 1: whole James Wiseman thing and seeing what's going to happen there. 567 00:27:41,600 --> 00:27:43,919 Speaker 1: And boydadah, it's just somebody who's probably going to be 568 00:27:43,920 --> 00:27:46,679 Speaker 1: traded to make room for whoever they draft. So we 569 00:27:46,760 --> 00:27:48,359 Speaker 1: have to account for that as well, because there are 570 00:27:48,400 --> 00:27:50,800 Speaker 1: going to be subsequent trades Draft Knight trades, Free to 571 00:27:50,840 --> 00:27:53,119 Speaker 1: See trades, and I will remind people when betting on 572 00:27:53,160 --> 00:27:55,800 Speaker 1: the draft also consider that some of the trades that 573 00:27:56,280 --> 00:27:58,720 Speaker 1: that may or may not happen that stem from this 574 00:27:58,880 --> 00:28:01,280 Speaker 1: might not play out until during the summer because they 575 00:28:01,320 --> 00:28:04,280 Speaker 1: take a while ultimately to put together. But yeah, I 576 00:28:04,320 --> 00:28:08,359 Speaker 1: still like Jarris Walker at number five, even though the 577 00:28:08,400 --> 00:28:11,440 Speaker 1: momentum literally shifted from the time we started this show 578 00:28:11,800 --> 00:28:15,200 Speaker 1: through now, and we'll see where it ends up tomorrow. 579 00:28:15,240 --> 00:28:18,679 Speaker 1: But I do still like them there, assuming that the 580 00:28:18,720 --> 00:28:22,480 Speaker 1: Pistons have to pick. If Utah trades up, that's something 581 00:28:22,520 --> 00:28:25,600 Speaker 1: that makes sense. But ultimately it depends because if there's 582 00:28:25,640 --> 00:28:29,560 Speaker 1: a trade, say to I don't know the Pacers or 583 00:28:29,600 --> 00:28:31,960 Speaker 1: somebody like that, I'm just naming a random team, then 584 00:28:32,040 --> 00:28:35,640 Speaker 1: maybe that's a spot where Thompson would make a little 585 00:28:35,640 --> 00:28:38,640 Speaker 1: bit more sense as opposed to Walker, and given what 586 00:28:38,680 --> 00:28:40,880 Speaker 1: they're looking for in terms of player profile, that might 587 00:28:40,920 --> 00:28:43,680 Speaker 1: make sense. So you know, it all depends. It's all relative. 588 00:28:43,760 --> 00:28:46,160 Speaker 1: But as you can see, things are really shifting now, 589 00:28:46,200 --> 00:28:48,360 Speaker 1: and I think I think there's good value with with 590 00:28:48,480 --> 00:28:51,960 Speaker 1: Jarvis Walker still, even though even though Thompson's really gaining 591 00:28:52,000 --> 00:28:53,360 Speaker 1: some deem at number five at this point. 592 00:28:54,120 --> 00:28:57,960 Speaker 5: And so I trades like trades for the NFL Draft, 593 00:28:58,000 --> 00:29:01,480 Speaker 5: I really just kind of ignore because the value of 594 00:29:01,480 --> 00:29:03,000 Speaker 5: like a draft pick in the first round in the 595 00:29:03,040 --> 00:29:04,920 Speaker 5: NFL is a lot more than a first round pick 596 00:29:05,080 --> 00:29:07,440 Speaker 5: in the NBA, because once you get past like the 597 00:29:07,440 --> 00:29:10,000 Speaker 5: top five picks. Let's just say, like the value like 598 00:29:10,360 --> 00:29:13,760 Speaker 5: really falls off a cliff and the overrunder for trades 599 00:29:13,800 --> 00:29:19,280 Speaker 5: I think is eight, which you can't like discount trade rumors, 600 00:29:19,280 --> 00:29:21,520 Speaker 5: where like the Pistons are definitely one of those trade 601 00:29:21,520 --> 00:29:24,960 Speaker 5: spots that is like probably more likely than unlikely. 602 00:29:25,160 --> 00:29:28,560 Speaker 3: Possibly. But at the same time, the NBA. 603 00:29:28,360 --> 00:29:30,760 Speaker 5: The beauty of the NBA draft is like we have 604 00:29:30,800 --> 00:29:34,200 Speaker 5: a consensus eight or nine guys in a positionless league, 605 00:29:34,680 --> 00:29:37,200 Speaker 5: like that order can be multiple different orders and it 606 00:29:37,280 --> 00:29:39,520 Speaker 5: is really not going to have a domino effect after 607 00:29:39,720 --> 00:29:41,920 Speaker 5: that it would in the NFL because the NFL, like 608 00:29:41,960 --> 00:29:44,000 Speaker 5: if a corner goes in a spot you think a 609 00:29:44,040 --> 00:29:46,600 Speaker 5: quarterback is going to go like that quarterback think gets 610 00:29:46,560 --> 00:29:49,200 Speaker 5: scooped up by like he might fall, he might go. 611 00:29:49,320 --> 00:29:52,840 Speaker 5: Where the domino effect in a draft where needs are 612 00:29:52,880 --> 00:29:56,120 Speaker 5: more crucial in the NFL doesn't have the same effect, 613 00:29:56,120 --> 00:29:58,040 Speaker 5: where this order of the top eight or nine can 614 00:29:58,080 --> 00:30:01,240 Speaker 5: really go anyway, and the trade could go and the 615 00:30:01,280 --> 00:30:03,240 Speaker 5: same guy we think and just won't have a ripple 616 00:30:03,240 --> 00:30:06,520 Speaker 5: effect relative and we could still be totally safe whether 617 00:30:06,720 --> 00:30:09,000 Speaker 5: Osago's five or six or. 618 00:30:08,960 --> 00:30:13,240 Speaker 4: Some momentum was the key thing that you had brought up, Brian, 619 00:30:13,280 --> 00:30:16,680 Speaker 4: about how a lot of things happening. You know, we 620 00:30:16,760 --> 00:30:19,600 Speaker 4: talked about even guys that might even land in the 621 00:30:19,600 --> 00:30:23,120 Speaker 4: top ten and the green room invites. You're starting to 622 00:30:23,160 --> 00:30:25,600 Speaker 4: see that kind of report coming out. And one guy 623 00:30:25,600 --> 00:30:28,400 Speaker 4: who got a green room invite that you want to 624 00:30:28,400 --> 00:30:30,840 Speaker 4: talk about, Steamwig. I didn't even know, like I barely 625 00:30:30,920 --> 00:30:35,640 Speaker 4: even knew that this guy played. But Olivier Max prosper 626 00:30:36,440 --> 00:30:39,080 Speaker 4: right now wasn't even listed last week, for example, to 627 00:30:39,120 --> 00:30:42,160 Speaker 4: either go in the first round or as a top 628 00:30:42,280 --> 00:30:44,920 Speaker 4: twenty pick, but has since been reported that he has 629 00:30:44,960 --> 00:30:50,120 Speaker 4: gotten the green room invite and odds obviously moved accordingly, Brian, 630 00:30:50,360 --> 00:30:52,280 Speaker 4: are you buying the hype on him? Do you think 631 00:30:52,320 --> 00:30:54,600 Speaker 4: he could go top twenty? Seeing it right now around 632 00:30:54,600 --> 00:30:56,720 Speaker 4: plus one twenty five for him to be drafted in 633 00:30:56,760 --> 00:30:58,040 Speaker 4: the top twenty of this draft. 634 00:30:58,840 --> 00:31:01,120 Speaker 1: I was at the Big East term where he was 635 00:31:01,160 --> 00:31:04,080 Speaker 1: playing for Marquette. I was covering it and I had 636 00:31:04,120 --> 00:31:09,480 Speaker 1: talked to multiple people NBA people who were very impressed 637 00:31:09,520 --> 00:31:13,200 Speaker 1: with his activity is effort. At the time, he was 638 00:31:13,440 --> 00:31:16,479 Speaker 1: maybe a second round pick, you know, wasn't somebody that 639 00:31:16,520 --> 00:31:18,840 Speaker 1: you really thought of in terms of getting into this 640 00:31:18,960 --> 00:31:23,120 Speaker 1: draft in that way, and he's been working out really 641 00:31:23,160 --> 00:31:27,200 Speaker 1: well for teams. There are teams that like him reportedly, 642 00:31:27,840 --> 00:31:31,280 Speaker 1: and he's somebody who you can sort of see what 643 00:31:31,360 --> 00:31:33,320 Speaker 1: he is at the NBA level. I don't think he's 644 00:31:33,320 --> 00:31:36,400 Speaker 1: going to be a star necessarily, but you see what 645 00:31:36,440 --> 00:31:39,360 Speaker 1: team's like. He's a hustle guy. He's going to be 646 00:31:40,440 --> 00:31:43,120 Speaker 1: potentially a high level role player for a long time 647 00:31:43,200 --> 00:31:46,800 Speaker 1: if he can really get his three point shot straight 648 00:31:46,840 --> 00:31:50,000 Speaker 1: in terms of just being consistent with it. But he 649 00:31:50,000 --> 00:31:51,920 Speaker 1: can plug a lot of holes. He's another one of 650 00:31:51,960 --> 00:31:53,840 Speaker 1: these guys who's big, who's going to be a three 651 00:31:53,880 --> 00:31:58,080 Speaker 1: to four defend multiple positions like this is what other 652 00:31:58,200 --> 00:32:00,920 Speaker 1: NBA teams are looking for. They're looking for big wings 653 00:32:01,320 --> 00:32:04,560 Speaker 1: who can be versatile, multi positional. This is why his 654 00:32:04,680 --> 00:32:09,000 Speaker 1: profile has risen. He plays really hard and he's from Marquette, 655 00:32:09,040 --> 00:32:11,400 Speaker 1: and Marquee has a pedigree of guys who have come 656 00:32:11,440 --> 00:32:14,080 Speaker 1: through there who've played well in the NBA, Jimmy Butler 657 00:32:14,080 --> 00:32:18,000 Speaker 1: being an example. You're gonna bring up Jimmy, Yeah, yeah, yeah, 658 00:32:18,120 --> 00:32:21,360 Speaker 1: Jay Crowder being an example like Marquette's and Shaka Smart 659 00:32:21,360 --> 00:32:23,320 Speaker 1: coached them, which is another you know, bonus points for 660 00:32:23,360 --> 00:32:27,480 Speaker 1: that right. But I saw the green room invite, the 661 00:32:27,520 --> 00:32:29,320 Speaker 1: green room invite, and I was like, oh, okay, so 662 00:32:29,400 --> 00:32:32,200 Speaker 1: there's a real chance he goes top twenty, and he 663 00:32:32,320 --> 00:32:34,200 Speaker 1: was plus I don't know where it is now because 664 00:32:34,360 --> 00:32:36,880 Speaker 1: the odds are changing literally as we speak. Before we 665 00:32:36,920 --> 00:32:39,240 Speaker 1: started plus one to ten to go into the top twenty, 666 00:32:39,720 --> 00:32:43,280 Speaker 1: and you're giving me that. It's like, I'm still gonna 667 00:32:43,280 --> 00:32:45,760 Speaker 1: take it. But we're getting to the point now where 668 00:32:45,840 --> 00:32:49,840 Speaker 1: he's gonna be almost a surefire sort of top twenty 669 00:32:49,880 --> 00:32:52,080 Speaker 1: pick at this point. And I know there are at 670 00:32:52,160 --> 00:32:54,680 Speaker 1: least two teams in the top twenty that he's worked 671 00:32:54,680 --> 00:32:57,880 Speaker 1: out really well with. They like him very much. Don't 672 00:32:57,920 --> 00:32:59,480 Speaker 1: know if those teams are going to keep their picks, 673 00:32:59,760 --> 00:33:04,200 Speaker 1: but oh, Max Prosper is like he's another one we 674 00:33:04,240 --> 00:33:06,840 Speaker 1: could be talking about in terms of being one of 675 00:33:06,880 --> 00:33:09,240 Speaker 1: the Jalen Williams types in this year's draft. I don't 676 00:33:09,240 --> 00:33:10,680 Speaker 1: think it's gonna go as high. I don't think it's 677 00:33:10,680 --> 00:33:12,920 Speaker 1: gonna be a lottery pick. But I do think he 678 00:33:12,920 --> 00:33:14,680 Speaker 1: can get into the top twenty, and that in the 679 00:33:14,760 --> 00:33:17,960 Speaker 1: late teams, so to speak, because of the momentum he's 680 00:33:18,040 --> 00:33:19,280 Speaker 1: built as of late. 681 00:33:19,800 --> 00:33:22,760 Speaker 5: Yeah, he's if there's a there's a Jaylen Williams for 682 00:33:22,880 --> 00:33:26,080 Speaker 5: like the wait first, he's him, like he is just 683 00:33:26,360 --> 00:33:27,440 Speaker 5: chatapulted into it. 684 00:33:28,280 --> 00:33:30,440 Speaker 4: Well, that's who I thought Haimi Hawkes would have been 685 00:33:30,480 --> 00:33:33,520 Speaker 4: with UCLA because initially I didn't think he was gonna 686 00:33:33,520 --> 00:33:35,560 Speaker 4: get first round buzz and maybe he would. 687 00:33:35,280 --> 00:33:38,480 Speaker 2: Near the end. Well, now he's like more Center thousand for. 688 00:33:38,520 --> 00:33:40,400 Speaker 4: First round and he's got a green room invite. 689 00:33:40,400 --> 00:33:40,560 Speaker 5: Two. 690 00:33:40,640 --> 00:33:42,680 Speaker 1: Now he might get the Sports Center bump. He was 691 00:33:42,760 --> 00:33:45,360 Speaker 1: on Sports Center last night, you know, doing the interview 692 00:33:45,480 --> 00:33:48,160 Speaker 1: wearing nice clothes or whatever. He might get the Sports 693 00:33:48,200 --> 00:33:50,479 Speaker 1: Center bump for the NBA Draft, you know, you never know. 694 00:33:51,360 --> 00:33:53,440 Speaker 5: And there's one guy that didn't get a green room 695 00:33:53,480 --> 00:33:58,880 Speaker 5: invite that I'm I got it. I've just been staring 696 00:33:58,920 --> 00:34:01,800 Speaker 5: at him. But Leonard Miller not getting in greenroom invite 697 00:34:02,480 --> 00:34:05,120 Speaker 5: is I don't know what to think of it. I mean, 698 00:34:05,160 --> 00:34:07,160 Speaker 5: we've got twenty five green room invites and I think 699 00:34:07,200 --> 00:34:09,919 Speaker 5: it's final at this point. And he is a guy 700 00:34:09,960 --> 00:34:13,239 Speaker 5: projected has been projected in the top twenties. I don't 701 00:34:13,280 --> 00:34:14,920 Speaker 5: know if it's like a G league thing or what, 702 00:34:15,160 --> 00:34:19,319 Speaker 5: but I would Yeah, I don't even know. I can't 703 00:34:19,360 --> 00:34:21,120 Speaker 5: even speak because like, I don't know what to think 704 00:34:21,160 --> 00:34:23,480 Speaker 5: of it, And I know, like the green room invites 705 00:34:23,520 --> 00:34:27,000 Speaker 5: are it's like a they like pull the gms and 706 00:34:27,040 --> 00:34:29,440 Speaker 5: they get all the gms like top twenty five, and 707 00:34:29,480 --> 00:34:30,880 Speaker 5: then they send them out based off of that. 708 00:34:31,680 --> 00:34:35,400 Speaker 4: So yeah, I think that's insane too, especially with Omax 709 00:34:35,520 --> 00:34:38,840 Speaker 4: just where he did really well at the combine, you know, 710 00:34:38,920 --> 00:34:41,000 Speaker 4: probably worked out for a couple of teams, definitely got 711 00:34:41,000 --> 00:34:44,000 Speaker 4: a first round promise. Leonard Miller to be drafted in 712 00:34:44,040 --> 00:34:46,400 Speaker 4: the top twenties sitting up Vanduel right now at plus 713 00:34:46,440 --> 00:34:49,640 Speaker 4: one point thirty. He had minus odds last week when 714 00:34:49,640 --> 00:34:51,920 Speaker 4: we were doing it, so again you're seeing that shift. 715 00:34:52,080 --> 00:34:53,560 Speaker 4: It doesn't always just go. 716 00:34:53,600 --> 00:34:54,760 Speaker 2: Under for these problems. 717 00:34:54,840 --> 00:34:56,800 Speaker 4: Some people they like to bet the over on these 718 00:34:57,080 --> 00:35:00,480 Speaker 4: and to see them drop. And so I just want 719 00:35:00,480 --> 00:35:02,680 Speaker 4: to recap what Brian's got so far. So you've got 720 00:35:02,680 --> 00:35:05,919 Speaker 4: the Jerris Walker you still like him at five, sitting 721 00:35:05,960 --> 00:35:10,880 Speaker 4: around plus two ten, and max O Max prosper with 722 00:35:11,000 --> 00:35:14,959 Speaker 4: Marquette to go in the top twenty at plus one ten. 723 00:35:16,280 --> 00:35:18,319 Speaker 4: Another player though, who might have gotten a little bit 724 00:35:18,320 --> 00:35:21,800 Speaker 4: of a Sports Center bump, not necessarily through a recent highlight, 725 00:35:21,840 --> 00:35:26,440 Speaker 4: but because of his brother was Chris Murray seeing him 726 00:35:26,520 --> 00:35:29,920 Speaker 4: right now top twenty around plus four thirty, seeing him 727 00:35:29,920 --> 00:35:31,600 Speaker 4: mocked a lot to the Kings who pick around the 728 00:35:31,640 --> 00:35:32,560 Speaker 4: twenty sixth range. 729 00:35:32,600 --> 00:35:33,680 Speaker 2: But Brian, are you. 730 00:35:33,719 --> 00:35:36,160 Speaker 4: Feeling Chris Murray to keep climbing and go into the 731 00:35:36,200 --> 00:35:38,360 Speaker 4: top twenty this year? Especially at plus four thirty? 732 00:35:39,080 --> 00:35:41,960 Speaker 1: There were different times throughout even the college basketball season 733 00:35:41,960 --> 00:35:45,480 Speaker 1: that he was mocked into the top twenty pretty consistently, 734 00:35:45,560 --> 00:35:48,000 Speaker 1: and you know sometimes you'll see like twenty two, twenty three, 735 00:35:48,120 --> 00:35:51,239 Speaker 1: twenty five. So I'm at eighteen of bunch this year 736 00:35:51,520 --> 00:35:55,960 Speaker 1: and I think you know with Murray again, if you're 737 00:35:55,960 --> 00:35:58,560 Speaker 1: looking at what NBA teams are looking for, this is 738 00:35:58,600 --> 00:36:02,480 Speaker 1: a stretch forward period, heart stop. This is somebody who's 739 00:36:02,560 --> 00:36:06,880 Speaker 1: going to play a position of need for a lot 740 00:36:06,920 --> 00:36:10,319 Speaker 1: of different teams, who's gonna be shooting threes primarily, who 741 00:36:10,480 --> 00:36:12,960 Speaker 1: again could be multi positional if you want to slide 742 00:36:13,000 --> 00:36:14,520 Speaker 1: them into the three if you feel like he can 743 00:36:14,560 --> 00:36:20,120 Speaker 1: hold defensively, particularly at that position. Right, and he's somebody 744 00:36:20,160 --> 00:36:22,080 Speaker 1: what was the number was plus four to twenty at 745 00:36:22,080 --> 00:36:25,959 Speaker 1: this point, Like I think, I mean, it's not maybe 746 00:36:26,000 --> 00:36:28,799 Speaker 1: considered a long shot yet at plus four twenty, but 747 00:36:29,280 --> 00:36:30,960 Speaker 1: I do like those odds of him going in the 748 00:36:30,960 --> 00:36:33,080 Speaker 1: top twenty because he fills a need for a bunch 749 00:36:33,080 --> 00:36:35,839 Speaker 1: of teams sort of in the late teens. I do 750 00:36:35,880 --> 00:36:38,319 Speaker 1: think he could slide out. He's definitely a first round pick. 751 00:36:38,320 --> 00:36:39,680 Speaker 1: I do think he could slide out of the top 752 00:36:39,719 --> 00:36:42,920 Speaker 1: twenty though, because again, there are other guys like oh, 753 00:36:42,960 --> 00:36:46,440 Speaker 1: Max Prosper who's rising, right, And if guys are rising, 754 00:36:46,480 --> 00:36:48,760 Speaker 1: that means other guys are falling And is Chris Murray 755 00:36:48,800 --> 00:36:50,600 Speaker 1: going to be a byproduct of that? But you know, 756 00:36:50,640 --> 00:36:53,719 Speaker 1: he obviously has the pedigree. His brother's already in the 757 00:36:53,800 --> 00:36:56,920 Speaker 1: NBA with the Sacramento Kings was surprisingly the fourth overall 758 00:36:56,960 --> 00:37:00,960 Speaker 1: pick last year, and you know, is this going to 759 00:37:01,000 --> 00:37:03,359 Speaker 1: be Is this going to be a time for Chris 760 00:37:03,440 --> 00:37:05,920 Speaker 1: Murray to potentially get it's the top twenty, I still think, 761 00:37:06,480 --> 00:37:08,520 Speaker 1: especially at plus four twenty, if you're giving me that, yeah, 762 00:37:08,560 --> 00:37:10,000 Speaker 1: I'm gonna take a shot on it. I'm gonna I'm 763 00:37:10,000 --> 00:37:11,600 Speaker 1: not gonna throw a ton of money on it, but 764 00:37:11,640 --> 00:37:13,120 Speaker 1: I'm still gonna take a shot in it because he 765 00:37:13,200 --> 00:37:15,360 Speaker 1: feels a need for a lot of different NBA teams 766 00:37:15,400 --> 00:37:18,120 Speaker 1: who you know, he's worked out for some and I 767 00:37:18,160 --> 00:37:20,520 Speaker 1: feel like He's made enough of an impression, especially throughout 768 00:37:20,560 --> 00:37:23,239 Speaker 1: the Cottage basketball season, to sort of keep himself in 769 00:37:23,280 --> 00:37:24,720 Speaker 1: the in the late teams. Perhaps. 770 00:37:25,160 --> 00:37:28,440 Speaker 4: Okay, so Omac's top twenty at plus one ten, we're 771 00:37:28,480 --> 00:37:30,759 Speaker 4: gonna lock that in for Brian, but Chris Murray, if 772 00:37:30,800 --> 00:37:33,480 Speaker 4: we are gonna take it, especially at the plus four twenty. 773 00:37:33,360 --> 00:37:34,640 Speaker 2: Let's just do a little sprinkle. 774 00:37:34,680 --> 00:37:36,319 Speaker 4: We don't have to do anything crazy where we all 775 00:37:36,360 --> 00:37:39,439 Speaker 4: go to our bank account. Yeah, all right. Let's move 776 00:37:39,520 --> 00:37:43,160 Speaker 4: to what is considered my favorite market of the NBA 777 00:37:43,320 --> 00:37:46,920 Speaker 4: draft process, and that is the first round pick market, 778 00:37:47,000 --> 00:37:51,200 Speaker 4: because even in the top twenty, we have a wide 779 00:37:51,320 --> 00:37:54,400 Speaker 4: range of outcomes when it comes to the first round. 780 00:37:55,200 --> 00:37:55,759 Speaker 3: I feel like you. 781 00:37:55,680 --> 00:37:58,239 Speaker 4: Can almost talk me into almost any scenario for a 782 00:37:58,239 --> 00:38:00,319 Speaker 4: player just because a team could fall in love with 783 00:38:00,920 --> 00:38:03,840 Speaker 4: a certain player. All it takes is one team and 784 00:38:04,160 --> 00:38:06,279 Speaker 4: your ticket is pretty much live right up until the 785 00:38:06,280 --> 00:38:09,319 Speaker 4: final pick of the first round. So which is why 786 00:38:09,360 --> 00:38:11,880 Speaker 4: I know that casual betters, which I have no problem 787 00:38:11,880 --> 00:38:14,000 Speaker 4: identifying myself as a casual better when it comes to 788 00:38:14,000 --> 00:38:16,319 Speaker 4: the NBA Draft, I love the bet this market. I 789 00:38:16,360 --> 00:38:19,800 Speaker 4: know casual betters to gentlemen who is on your radar 790 00:38:20,000 --> 00:38:22,560 Speaker 4: as a bet to crack round one. Note, I know 791 00:38:22,640 --> 00:38:26,960 Speaker 4: you talked about Jordan Walsh cracking the first round from 792 00:38:26,960 --> 00:38:29,879 Speaker 4: the razorbacks, Luke, So we'll start with Brian. If you've 793 00:38:29,880 --> 00:38:32,520 Speaker 4: got anybody that you like to get into the first round, 794 00:38:32,760 --> 00:38:34,600 Speaker 4: what kind of odds are we looking at, and are 795 00:38:34,640 --> 00:38:37,160 Speaker 4: you looking at any long shots potentially to get into 796 00:38:37,160 --> 00:38:37,759 Speaker 4: the first round? 797 00:38:38,800 --> 00:38:40,840 Speaker 1: To get into the first round is always fun to 798 00:38:40,880 --> 00:38:45,440 Speaker 1: look for long shots, right. I mentioned last week Amani 799 00:38:45,520 --> 00:38:50,400 Speaker 1: Baits because using the whole Gatorade National Player of the 800 00:38:50,480 --> 00:38:53,200 Speaker 1: Year thing, like, these guys tend to go in the 801 00:38:53,239 --> 00:38:56,360 Speaker 1: first round. Now many Bits has since had some baggage 802 00:38:56,400 --> 00:38:59,200 Speaker 1: from where he was before, obviously didn't really work out 803 00:38:59,200 --> 00:39:02,680 Speaker 1: of Memphis, and then goes to Eastern Michigan, puts some 804 00:39:02,840 --> 00:39:06,920 Speaker 1: numbers not super efficient, negative wingspan, and then you know, 805 00:39:07,000 --> 00:39:09,920 Speaker 1: has had some trouble off the court, but the talent 806 00:39:10,000 --> 00:39:14,040 Speaker 1: was ridiculous. Reminding people again he was, along with chet Holmgren, 807 00:39:14,120 --> 00:39:15,920 Speaker 1: the best high school player in the country. It was 808 00:39:15,960 --> 00:39:18,960 Speaker 1: those two, They were the top two. Chet Holmegren overtook 809 00:39:19,040 --> 00:39:21,319 Speaker 1: him at some point. But those guys tend to go 810 00:39:21,400 --> 00:39:24,799 Speaker 1: in the first round usually. Now, this is a little 811 00:39:24,800 --> 00:39:27,719 Speaker 1: bit of a unique situation. But I mean in terms 812 00:39:27,760 --> 00:39:31,360 Speaker 1: of a long shot, the odds for him were in 813 00:39:31,440 --> 00:39:33,680 Speaker 1: the thousands, I believe to go into the first round. 814 00:39:34,239 --> 00:39:36,799 Speaker 4: Bonnie Bates is plus five thousand to go in round 815 00:39:36,880 --> 00:39:37,520 Speaker 4: one right now. 816 00:39:37,880 --> 00:39:40,040 Speaker 1: So yeah, it's like, it's like, do I think it's 817 00:39:40,040 --> 00:39:42,000 Speaker 1: actually going to happen. I think someone takes a chance 818 00:39:42,000 --> 00:39:43,840 Speaker 1: of him, probably the second round at this point. But 819 00:39:44,120 --> 00:39:45,960 Speaker 1: if you're telling me, I'm putting one dollar on this 820 00:39:46,040 --> 00:39:49,040 Speaker 1: bet one dollar and could potentially make fifty out of it, 821 00:39:49,120 --> 00:39:51,760 Speaker 1: and why not. But some other players with like shorter 822 00:39:51,800 --> 00:39:55,960 Speaker 1: odds I'm looking at perhaps Marcus Sasser. He's somebody from 823 00:39:56,040 --> 00:39:59,600 Speaker 1: Houston who he was. I saw him getting first round 824 00:39:59,640 --> 00:40:01,600 Speaker 1: buzz and then sort of fell back and it's been 825 00:40:01,640 --> 00:40:03,239 Speaker 1: on and off, and a lot of people didn't really 826 00:40:03,239 --> 00:40:05,279 Speaker 1: know what to do with the players from that Houston team, 827 00:40:05,320 --> 00:40:08,400 Speaker 1: minus obviously jars Walker. Of course, maybe he's someone to consider. 828 00:40:08,400 --> 00:40:12,280 Speaker 1: Amari Bailey another high level, high level high school player, 829 00:40:12,600 --> 00:40:16,360 Speaker 1: went to UCLA. Didn't really kill it at UCLA, so 830 00:40:16,440 --> 00:40:18,439 Speaker 1: now his draft stock is taken a hit. Maybe someone 831 00:40:18,480 --> 00:40:20,160 Speaker 1: takes a chance on him in the second round. I 832 00:40:20,200 --> 00:40:23,320 Speaker 1: think he can slide into the first round as a talent. 833 00:40:23,400 --> 00:40:27,279 Speaker 1: Bet Luke mentioned Denver earlier in terms of potentially getting 834 00:40:27,320 --> 00:40:29,400 Speaker 1: Jordan Walsh. I think that's a team that can give 835 00:40:29,440 --> 00:40:32,480 Speaker 1: an Amari Bailey look just to add some talent late 836 00:40:32,520 --> 00:40:35,399 Speaker 1: in the first round, and some other teams is they're 837 00:40:35,520 --> 00:40:41,480 Speaker 1: there as well. And then Julian Strawther, who plus fifteen hundred. 838 00:40:41,680 --> 00:40:46,600 Speaker 1: I believe right now he is again another As you 839 00:40:46,640 --> 00:40:48,319 Speaker 1: can tell, there's a trend here what I'm looking at. 840 00:40:48,360 --> 00:40:50,560 Speaker 1: I'm looking at guys who fit profiles of what NBA 841 00:40:50,560 --> 00:40:53,279 Speaker 1: teams are looking for. Julian Strawther six', seven one of 842 00:40:53,320 --> 00:40:55,880 Speaker 1: the best shooters in this, draft full, stop can rebound 843 00:40:55,880 --> 00:40:58,759 Speaker 1: for his, position is a big wing maybe has three 844 00:40:58,800 --> 00:41:00,759 Speaker 1: AND d potential if you if you think he could 845 00:41:00,760 --> 00:41:04,840 Speaker 1: hold up defensively at the next. Level gonzaga obviously defends really, 846 00:41:04,840 --> 00:41:08,000 Speaker 1: well so that helps in terms of amplifying his defensive. 847 00:41:08,000 --> 00:41:11,279 Speaker 1: Pedigree Julius strawth was mocked for a while in the 848 00:41:11,320 --> 00:41:14,919 Speaker 1: top twenty twenty five late first round, range even last, 849 00:41:15,000 --> 00:41:17,520 Speaker 1: year because he had tested the waters and then came 850 00:41:17,560 --> 00:41:20,600 Speaker 1: back to school and then this year obviously is staying 851 00:41:20,640 --> 00:41:22,879 Speaker 1: in the. DRAFT i think he can find his way 852 00:41:22,920 --> 00:41:24,799 Speaker 1: back into the first. Round if someone bets on the, 853 00:41:24,840 --> 00:41:29,239 Speaker 1: shooting like shooters are guys that can find themselves late 854 00:41:29,280 --> 00:41:31,160 Speaker 1: in the first round going INTO Nba. Draft SO i 855 00:41:31,200 --> 00:41:34,680 Speaker 1: think that's a worthy long. Shot of Many, Baits Julian, 856 00:41:34,760 --> 00:41:38,239 Speaker 1: strawl those are sort of worthy long. Shots AND i 857 00:41:38,400 --> 00:41:41,080 Speaker 1: really Think Amari bailey at plus five hundred is a 858 00:41:41,080 --> 00:41:44,120 Speaker 1: good number to find himself into the first round BECAUSE 859 00:41:44,400 --> 00:41:46,680 Speaker 1: nba teams just like making talent bets when it comes 860 00:41:46,680 --> 00:41:49,440 Speaker 1: to late in the first, round and you know in 861 00:41:49,480 --> 00:41:50,200 Speaker 1: the draft. 862 00:41:49,960 --> 00:41:54,080 Speaker 4: Overall, YEAH Mani baits at plus five. THOUSAND i found 863 00:41:54,080 --> 00:41:57,520 Speaker 4: it really interesting with him because if you go back 864 00:41:57,560 --> 00:42:00,839 Speaker 4: and look historically at Every Gatoring player of The year, 865 00:42:00,880 --> 00:42:04,040 Speaker 4: winner there's been thirty five, total thirty six total, technically 866 00:42:04,120 --> 00:42:04,960 Speaker 4: But Grady. 867 00:42:04,640 --> 00:42:06,160 Speaker 2: Dickett's going to go in the first. Round you could 868 00:42:06,160 --> 00:42:07,120 Speaker 2: include him if you wanted. 869 00:42:07,120 --> 00:42:11,400 Speaker 4: To but of the thirty five, winners only three have 870 00:42:11,600 --> 00:42:13,920 Speaker 4: not been taken in the first. Round that's a ninety 871 00:42:13,920 --> 00:42:16,360 Speaker 4: two percent hit. Rate the last one that did not 872 00:42:16,480 --> 00:42:19,320 Speaker 4: go in the first round was two thousand and. One Calvin, 873 00:42:19,360 --> 00:42:22,200 Speaker 4: torbert who was high School player of The, year goes 874 00:42:22,239 --> 00:42:25,400 Speaker 4: To Michigan, state ends up becoming more of a journeyman 875 00:42:26,040 --> 00:42:28,520 Speaker 4: but all it takes is really is one. Team you, 876 00:42:28,560 --> 00:42:31,240 Speaker 4: know we talked About, denver but other contenders who would 877 00:42:31,239 --> 00:42:34,280 Speaker 4: maybe just rather have cheap talent on their, roster especially 878 00:42:34,280 --> 00:42:36,600 Speaker 4: with this NEW cba that we're about to, approach where 879 00:42:36,920 --> 00:42:41,680 Speaker 4: the luxury tax penalties are so harsh that having like 880 00:42:41,719 --> 00:42:43,919 Speaker 4: first round picks are essentially like gold in a, way 881 00:42:44,000 --> 00:42:46,640 Speaker 4: especially for those contenders in the twenty to thirty. RANGE 882 00:42:46,960 --> 00:42:48,759 Speaker 4: i do love the idea as well for the same 883 00:42:48,800 --> 00:42:51,440 Speaker 4: reason For Amuri, bailey who had a much better showing AT, 884 00:42:51,520 --> 00:42:54,040 Speaker 4: ucla even though he was a little bit more outshine 885 00:42:54,040 --> 00:42:58,040 Speaker 4: by guys Like Haimi hakez and. Others But Julian STRAWTHER 886 00:42:58,200 --> 00:43:01,880 Speaker 4: i think is really enticing BECAUSE i think he showed 887 00:43:01,880 --> 00:43:03,640 Speaker 4: in the tournament that he could be a shot. Maker 888 00:43:03,880 --> 00:43:06,520 Speaker 4: he could come in and be able to not necessarily 889 00:43:06,520 --> 00:43:08,560 Speaker 4: carry an, offense but not a guy who's going to, be, 890 00:43:08,680 --> 00:43:11,640 Speaker 4: like you, know a liability on the offensive side of the. 891 00:43:11,640 --> 00:43:15,120 Speaker 4: Ball and seeing him as high as uh twenty two 892 00:43:15,120 --> 00:43:17,320 Speaker 4: to one to be in a first round pick fifteen 893 00:43:17,360 --> 00:43:19,600 Speaker 4: to one as well right now At, FanDuel those are 894 00:43:19,640 --> 00:43:22,440 Speaker 4: guys THAT i would definitely consider anybody that's over plus one, thousand, 895 00:43:22,480 --> 00:43:24,440 Speaker 4: THOUGH i THINK i would just offer this key, Disclaimer 896 00:43:24,960 --> 00:43:27,080 Speaker 4: please just be careful with how you're. Betting these don't 897 00:43:27,120 --> 00:43:30,000 Speaker 4: be putting like thousands of dollars or you, know a 898 00:43:30,080 --> 00:43:31,840 Speaker 4: full unit bet on that kind of. STUFF i, mean 899 00:43:31,880 --> 00:43:33,600 Speaker 4: if you have the conviction and you have the money to, 900 00:43:33,719 --> 00:43:35,839 Speaker 4: use go for. It but at the same, time those 901 00:43:35,840 --> 00:43:38,200 Speaker 4: ones that were, there the long shot, BETS i would 902 00:43:38,239 --> 00:43:40,840 Speaker 4: still recommend maybe putting you, know point one of a, 903 00:43:40,920 --> 00:43:42,680 Speaker 4: unit you, know something along those lines where you have 904 00:43:42,719 --> 00:43:44,080 Speaker 4: a little skin in the game and you have a 905 00:43:44,080 --> 00:43:46,319 Speaker 4: little bit of a portfolio to work, with but not 906 00:43:46,360 --> 00:43:48,960 Speaker 4: necessarily something where that's what you're counting on to be 907 00:43:49,000 --> 00:43:53,200 Speaker 4: able to make bank in this, Spot, Luke but if. 908 00:43:53,120 --> 00:43:56,040 Speaker 5: You, know if you know hammer, it like do you 909 00:43:56,080 --> 00:44:00,600 Speaker 5: know that if you can if you can't get that 910 00:44:00,640 --> 00:44:02,359 Speaker 5: in like a fully unit, on because a lot of people. 911 00:44:02,400 --> 00:44:04,879 Speaker 5: Can't but like we're talking, draft like if you have an, 912 00:44:04,880 --> 00:44:08,319 Speaker 5: intel if you know like minus five, thousand you know 913 00:44:08,400 --> 00:44:10,000 Speaker 5: something might as well be minus a. 914 00:44:10,080 --> 00:44:14,520 Speaker 3: Thousand so, yeah that was gonna a good. Disclaimer it 915 00:44:14,560 --> 00:44:16,640 Speaker 3: was a great. Disclaimer BUT i think. 916 00:44:16,480 --> 00:44:17,320 Speaker 2: That's a good counter. 917 00:44:17,400 --> 00:44:20,640 Speaker 4: Though that's a good counter because information is key in 918 00:44:20,719 --> 00:44:23,360 Speaker 4: this in this, game and, Obviously. 919 00:44:23,040 --> 00:44:26,000 Speaker 5: Luke you're even just playing, you but really just make 920 00:44:26,040 --> 00:44:27,400 Speaker 5: sure you know if you don't. 921 00:44:29,080 --> 00:44:31,439 Speaker 1: Because for, me for, Me i'm Not i'm Not i'm 922 00:44:31,480 --> 00:44:33,480 Speaker 1: not somebody who's Throwing i'm not throwing a lot of 923 00:44:33,560 --> 00:44:37,160 Speaker 1: units on stuff in, general because you, Know I'M i 924 00:44:37,160 --> 00:44:39,719 Speaker 1: don't like spending that much money on, stuff BUT i will. 925 00:44:39,719 --> 00:44:43,640 Speaker 1: Bet but, listen if you, know you better know if 926 00:44:43,640 --> 00:44:45,520 Speaker 1: you're gonna put a certain, amount. 927 00:44:46,480 --> 00:44:49,000 Speaker 4: All, Right, luke do you have anybody that outside Of 928 00:44:49,040 --> 00:44:51,480 Speaker 4: Jordan walsh that you were considering maybe to crack the 929 00:44:51,520 --> 00:44:53,560 Speaker 4: first round or you GOOD a. 930 00:44:53,560 --> 00:44:55,760 Speaker 5: Lot of the names Of brian brought. Up i'm totally 931 00:44:55,800 --> 00:44:57,399 Speaker 5: on board with the one he. DIDN'T i would, say 932 00:44:57,400 --> 00:44:59,680 Speaker 5: Like Andre, JACKSON i think he's five to one right, 933 00:44:59,680 --> 00:45:05,440 Speaker 5: now which he was after That denver trade came. Out 934 00:45:05,640 --> 00:45:08,239 Speaker 5: O'Connor like tweeted like a list of like three or 935 00:45:08,280 --> 00:45:11,360 Speaker 5: four names of like guys that could benefit and catapult 936 00:45:11,440 --> 00:45:14,920 Speaker 5: themselves into the first, round And jackson was one of. 937 00:45:14,920 --> 00:45:17,600 Speaker 5: Them and he very much fits the same profile As 938 00:45:17,640 --> 00:45:20,560 Speaker 5: walsh in terms of like translatable. Traits he's not a 939 00:45:20,560 --> 00:45:23,799 Speaker 5: shooter like defense, like he has all the intangibles you 940 00:45:23,800 --> 00:45:27,120 Speaker 5: look for AND i think at five to one that 941 00:45:27,320 --> 00:45:30,560 Speaker 5: is definitely fair bat and Like saucer as well is 942 00:45:30,600 --> 00:45:33,640 Speaker 5: another ONE i, like but those would be like the 943 00:45:33,719 --> 00:45:36,200 Speaker 5: two on top of the, WASH i think are where 944 00:45:36,239 --> 00:45:36,880 Speaker 5: they did that at this. 945 00:45:36,960 --> 00:45:40,920 Speaker 1: Point Beautiful jackson also like LIKE O Max prosper made 946 00:45:40,960 --> 00:45:43,360 Speaker 1: an impression at The Big East tournament BECAUSE i remember 947 00:45:43,400 --> 00:45:45,759 Speaker 1: talking to somebody at The Big East. Tournament it was 948 00:45:45,760 --> 00:45:48,839 Speaker 1: another reporter who, said, yeah he's, good he'll probably get 949 00:45:48,840 --> 00:45:52,360 Speaker 1: a two. Way and now we're talking about him potentially 950 00:45:52,400 --> 00:45:54,920 Speaker 1: being in the first round because he that's when his 951 00:45:55,040 --> 00:45:57,720 Speaker 1: sort of breakout. STARTED O Max prosper And Andre jackson 952 00:45:57,800 --> 00:46:01,920 Speaker 1: very similar. Rises OBVIOUSLY O max's almost minus a thousand 953 00:46:01,960 --> 00:46:03,680 Speaker 1: again to the first round at this, point like we're 954 00:46:03,680 --> 00:46:07,040 Speaker 1: talking about him be in top. Twenty But, hawkins he's 955 00:46:07,080 --> 00:46:09,640 Speaker 1: Another jackson's another good. One hawkins, too as a matter of, 956 00:46:09,680 --> 00:46:12,040 Speaker 1: fact his. Teammate he's probably gonna go very early in this. 957 00:46:12,120 --> 00:46:16,399 Speaker 1: Draft but, yeah The yukon, guys there's some, good good 958 00:46:16,440 --> 00:46:17,120 Speaker 1: numbers out. 959 00:46:17,000 --> 00:46:19,759 Speaker 5: On, them AND i want to Like harp that like 960 00:46:19,840 --> 00:46:22,640 Speaker 5: these odds aren't, real like they, can't like there's no 961 00:46:22,960 --> 00:46:28,040 Speaker 5: there's no power rating for these where Like jackson at 962 00:46:28,080 --> 00:46:29,640 Speaker 5: five to one to go in the first, round like 963 00:46:29,960 --> 00:46:32,560 Speaker 5: his true odds should probably be like ten to one or. 964 00:46:32,640 --> 00:46:33,759 Speaker 1: Higher, yeah but. 965 00:46:33,719 --> 00:46:35,759 Speaker 5: Based off of this, market like you take what you can, 966 00:46:35,800 --> 00:46:39,480 Speaker 5: get where Like omax opened at minus one ninety now 967 00:46:39,480 --> 00:46:42,480 Speaker 5: he's minus a, Thousand LIKE i, like what is the right? 968 00:46:43,200 --> 00:46:46,799 Speaker 5: Price like we no one knows, honestly and at five to, 969 00:46:46,880 --> 00:46:49,399 Speaker 5: one like given the, market you just kind of that's 970 00:46:49,480 --> 00:46:52,120 Speaker 5: like that is technically quote unquote, value where like his 971 00:46:52,200 --> 00:46:55,880 Speaker 5: true odds should definitely be way, higher but relative to everyone, 972 00:46:55,880 --> 00:46:56,560 Speaker 5: else that's. 973 00:46:56,640 --> 00:46:59,480 Speaker 4: Value all, right, GENTLEMEN i think we think we covered. 974 00:46:59,480 --> 00:47:01,239 Speaker 4: It i'm gonna go over the picks, again just for 975 00:47:01,440 --> 00:47:02,560 Speaker 4: if we went over too. 976 00:47:02,600 --> 00:47:03,520 Speaker 2: Fast i'll read. 977 00:47:03,520 --> 00:47:03,960 Speaker 3: That get two. 978 00:47:04,000 --> 00:47:06,080 Speaker 5: More let me let me do two more fire way, 979 00:47:06,120 --> 00:47:09,440 Speaker 5: man let's. Go, Yeah i'm gonna go with to be 980 00:47:09,560 --> 00:47:13,279 Speaker 5: picked Sixth Anthony, black WHICH i think is like plus 981 00:47:13,360 --> 00:47:15,560 Speaker 5: three hundred right, now which kind of piggybacks off Of 982 00:47:16,360 --> 00:47:21,919 Speaker 5: asar going, five where like the consensus mock is let's 983 00:47:21,920 --> 00:47:25,439 Speaker 5: just Say walker five and then A sar, six where 984 00:47:25,440 --> 00:47:27,560 Speaker 5: if a star is rising and he actually goes, five 985 00:47:28,080 --> 00:47:31,880 Speaker 5: that definitely opens up the magic For, black who whether 986 00:47:31,920 --> 00:47:37,279 Speaker 5: asagoes five or, Not Like black is definitely like live at, 987 00:47:37,360 --> 00:47:41,719 Speaker 5: six which like his ceiling is. Eight BUT i do 988 00:47:41,800 --> 00:47:45,160 Speaker 5: Think asar going five like greatly increases the chances Of 989 00:47:45,360 --> 00:47:47,600 Speaker 5: black going six if they don't. Trade let's just, say 990 00:47:48,200 --> 00:47:50,799 Speaker 5: and he's JUST i don't know how much more he can, 991 00:47:50,920 --> 00:47:53,160 Speaker 5: rise but he's one of the guys in the top 992 00:47:53,200 --> 00:47:55,680 Speaker 5: ten that just has a ceiling of, eight and teams 993 00:47:55,680 --> 00:47:59,000 Speaker 5: are rumored to be trading ahead of eight to Get 994 00:47:59,080 --> 00:48:01,880 Speaker 5: black because he is the the guard that is probably 995 00:48:01,920 --> 00:48:06,120 Speaker 5: the number. One and then my other one Is kyante 996 00:48:06,280 --> 00:48:09,480 Speaker 5: to be drafted Before Jordan, hawkins Which kyante is plus 997 00:48:09,600 --> 00:48:13,040 Speaker 5: one fifty five right, now which If Jordan hawkins was 998 00:48:13,040 --> 00:48:15,320 Speaker 5: plus one fifty, Five i'd be giving Out Jordan. Hawkins 999 00:48:15,719 --> 00:48:19,800 Speaker 5: so this is like a true value bet Because kiante 1000 00:48:20,000 --> 00:48:22,320 Speaker 5: is definitely one of the followers where he's been projected 1001 00:48:22,320 --> 00:48:25,040 Speaker 5: in the lottery for months and then based off of, 1002 00:48:25,080 --> 00:48:28,719 Speaker 5: workouts et, cetera he's fallen into even the twenties and 1003 00:48:28,760 --> 00:48:31,680 Speaker 5: some mock. Drafts but the guys THAT i, respect there 1004 00:48:31,719 --> 00:48:33,560 Speaker 5: have been a couple that have him at. Thirteen there 1005 00:48:33,600 --> 00:48:36,200 Speaker 5: are rumors that The raptors even have a promise To, 1006 00:48:36,280 --> 00:48:38,800 Speaker 5: kiante which is over unders thirteen and a half and 1007 00:48:38,960 --> 00:48:41,360 Speaker 5: they're just refusing to budget no matter how many people 1008 00:48:41,400 --> 00:48:45,480 Speaker 5: bet the. Over But kyante's range is just he Can 1009 00:48:46,320 --> 00:48:48,840 Speaker 5: his range is wide enough that he can Jump hawkins. 1010 00:48:48,960 --> 00:48:51,920 Speaker 5: Easily Where hawkins to me is his range starts at 1011 00:48:51,960 --> 00:48:57,279 Speaker 5: sixteen and then it's anywhere after, sixteen And kyante is 1012 00:48:57,440 --> 00:49:02,080 Speaker 5: probably twelve or thirteen anywhere after that and at plus 1013 00:49:02,080 --> 00:49:04,640 Speaker 5: one fifty, five which a couple of weeks ago he 1014 00:49:04,719 --> 00:49:07,520 Speaker 5: was minus two. Hundred so you're really like the same 1015 00:49:07,560 --> 00:49:10,600 Speaker 5: thing that happened With. Walker dodds flipped and it has 1016 00:49:10,640 --> 00:49:14,120 Speaker 5: created value On. Cante no matter how bad his stock is, 1017 00:49:14,160 --> 00:49:16,080 Speaker 5: FALLING i still think his range makes it worth. 1018 00:49:16,080 --> 00:49:21,440 Speaker 4: About, yeah you're banking on a really touted freshman From 1019 00:49:21,520 --> 00:49:25,319 Speaker 4: baylor against arguably the best shooter in the draft In Jordan. 1020 00:49:25,400 --> 00:49:27,840 Speaker 4: Hawkins AND i found it to be really interesting that 1021 00:49:27,880 --> 00:49:31,279 Speaker 4: you mentioned The raptors BECAUSE i think so, far based 1022 00:49:31,360 --> 00:49:33,239 Speaker 4: on reporters THAT i follow that are close to the, 1023 00:49:33,280 --> 00:49:34,640 Speaker 4: SITUATION i think they've made. 1024 00:49:34,440 --> 00:49:35,839 Speaker 2: Like three first round. 1025 00:49:35,880 --> 00:49:40,359 Speaker 4: Promises well they're Like, Keante George Jordan, Hawkins Jalen Hood, 1026 00:49:40,400 --> 00:49:43,160 Speaker 4: chafino like you, know like right, now Like i'm not 1027 00:49:43,200 --> 00:49:45,400 Speaker 4: really sure what information to trust at this. Point BUT 1028 00:49:45,480 --> 00:49:47,480 Speaker 4: i do like the number of what you're saying here 1029 00:49:47,520 --> 00:49:51,120 Speaker 4: now as it has transitioned where it's almost become too 1030 00:49:51,200 --> 00:49:53,440 Speaker 4: much now in favor Of Jordan hawkins at this, point 1031 00:49:53,520 --> 00:49:55,440 Speaker 4: especially where he is being currently. 1032 00:49:55,480 --> 00:49:57,600 Speaker 2: Mocked, GENTLEMEN i think this is. 1033 00:49:57,600 --> 00:50:00,000 Speaker 4: IT i was just gonna go over the picks again 1034 00:50:00,080 --> 00:50:01,799 Speaker 4: just to make sure that we're all up to date 1035 00:50:01,880 --> 00:50:05,400 Speaker 4: on what we've got so. Far So brian still Like 1036 00:50:05,480 --> 00:50:08,120 Speaker 4: Jaris walker at the fifth pick at plus two. Hundred 1037 00:50:08,280 --> 00:50:11,520 Speaker 4: you like B Lal kolabali at top ten at plus two, 1038 00:50:11,640 --> 00:50:14,080 Speaker 4: Ten Grady dick at top ten at plus three, hundred 1039 00:50:14,160 --> 00:50:16,640 Speaker 4: not as, much but again maybe a little sprinkle for 1040 00:50:16,680 --> 00:50:20,080 Speaker 4: anybody who wants a little bit of. Action omax top 1041 00:50:20,120 --> 00:50:22,600 Speaker 4: twenty at plus one, ten along With Chris murray in 1042 00:50:22,640 --> 00:50:24,840 Speaker 4: the top twenty at plus four, thirty and then my 1043 00:50:24,960 --> 00:50:27,040 Speaker 4: Favorite mark at the first round Pick. Market you Like 1044 00:50:27,040 --> 00:50:30,839 Speaker 4: Amari bailey at five to one And Julian strother at 1045 00:50:30,840 --> 00:50:33,000 Speaker 4: fifteen to, one in the range of fifteen to twenty 1046 00:50:33,040 --> 00:50:36,360 Speaker 4: two to, one And lucy you would just, yeah, absolutely 1047 00:50:36,400 --> 00:50:38,920 Speaker 4: they have to be sprinkled at this. Stage and Then 1048 00:50:39,000 --> 00:50:41,800 Speaker 4: luke you are liking in the first. Round you Like Jordan, 1049 00:50:41,880 --> 00:50:45,319 Speaker 4: Walsh Andre, jackson both of those in the five to one, 1050 00:50:45,440 --> 00:50:47,960 Speaker 4: range four to, one five to one range as, well 1051 00:50:48,239 --> 00:50:52,280 Speaker 4: along With Keante george now to be taken Over Jordan 1052 00:50:52,320 --> 00:50:53,839 Speaker 4: hawkins in the. 1053 00:50:53,760 --> 00:50:55,120 Speaker 3: First, round And Anthony. 1054 00:50:55,160 --> 00:50:58,880 Speaker 4: Black Anthony, black Who brian did have last week to 1055 00:50:58,920 --> 00:51:01,000 Speaker 4: go fifth overall at The pistons and he was sitting 1056 00:51:01,000 --> 00:51:03,520 Speaker 4: around plus three thousand right, now he's about plus one 1057 00:51:03,560 --> 00:51:06,399 Speaker 4: thousand to go fifth overall to The pistons or maybe 1058 00:51:06,440 --> 00:51:09,360 Speaker 4: another team that potentially could trade up Because Anthony black's 1059 00:51:09,440 --> 00:51:11,879 Speaker 4: name is definitely rising as we get, closer just based 1060 00:51:11,920 --> 00:51:14,080 Speaker 4: on the. TALENT a, Loan all, right, gentlemen they'll do. 1061 00:51:14,160 --> 00:51:18,279 Speaker 4: It for The Action network podcast presented By. FanDuel I'm Juel. 1062 00:51:18,360 --> 00:51:21,759 Speaker 4: GALLEANTA i want to thank Both luke And brian again 1063 00:51:21,800 --> 00:51:23,719 Speaker 4: for joining me today and if you want to hear 1064 00:51:23,760 --> 00:51:26,160 Speaker 4: more ABOUT Nba draft, betting make sure to check out 1065 00:51:26,200 --> 00:51:30,239 Speaker 4: The buckets podcast With Matt moore And Brandon, anderson and 1066 00:51:30,360 --> 00:51:32,759 Speaker 4: also make sure to download The Action network app for 1067 00:51:32,840 --> 00:51:35,600 Speaker 4: picks and content ON nba draft betting bone. 1068 00:51:35,640 --> 00:51:47,880 Speaker 1: Shops Action network reminds you please gamble responsibly if you 1069 00:51:48,160 --> 00:51:49,960 Speaker 1: or someone you care about has a gambling. 1070 00:51:50,000 --> 00:51:53,120 Speaker 5: Problem help is available twenty four to seven at one 1071 00:51:53,160 --> 00:51:54,200 Speaker 5: eight Hundred gambler