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Speaker 1: This episode is presented by Yahoo Fantasy, the most valuable

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Speaker 1: commodity I know of his information. All got five dollars.

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Speaker 1: This is a rain up the Tracklhit. You're saying that

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Speaker 1: humans need fantasy to make life bearable. Humans need fantasy

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Speaker 1: to be my goodness, best, relentless, refusing to give up.

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Speaker 1: All right, hit that horn? Verys what's going on? Everybody?

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Speaker 1: Welcome to the Fantasy Flex Podcast. I'm your host, Chris Raybon.

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Speaker 1: Today's episode is very special. It is our seventh annual

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Speaker 1: Experts Guide to Fantasy Football and today's episode sponsored by

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Speaker 1: Yahoo Fantasy. And what better fantasy analyst to do an

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Speaker 1: expert guys with than the expert himself, mister Sean Kern

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Speaker 1: or Seawan. Congrats on another great season, three year run

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Speaker 1: of being top five in terms of rankings accuracy. What's

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Speaker 1: going on? What's up? Yeah?

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Speaker 2: This is what our seventh or eighth time we're doing

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Speaker 2: this expert guide on how to you know, win your

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Speaker 2: fanas football league. So looking forward to hopping in and

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Speaker 2: discuss with you.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, and we're gonna go through pretty much everything that

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Speaker 1: we check boxes for as we're going through our leagues

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Speaker 1: and our process and you know, the advantage for us

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Speaker 1: that we get to do it all year round, So

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Speaker 1: I think the rankings take a big step out of

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Speaker 1: if you might be with just and you still still

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Speaker 1: consider yourself newer to the game or obviously there's never

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Speaker 1: a shortage of things to learn, even for guys like us.

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Speaker 1: But we're gonna give you all the knowledge we have.

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Speaker 1: And if you're getting ready to go in and try

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Speaker 1: to crush your league this year, why not use the

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Speaker 1: same projections that we use, because guess what you can.

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Speaker 1: Our Fantasy Labs NFL subscription gives you access to all

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Speaker 1: those player rankings, customizable draft cheat sheets, and more. New

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Speaker 1: slash flex. So go win your league with the number

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Speaker 1: four and the number six two top six thirty three

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Speaker 1: percent of the top six Fantasy football most accurate preseason

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Speaker 1: rankers of the past three seasons, and I can't I

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Speaker 1: can only speak for for Sean. I know he's probably

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Speaker 1: even better than that and in season, So make sure

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Speaker 1: that you go and use that code for twenty hours

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Speaker 1: off at Fantasy labs dot com. Slash flex. So this

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Speaker 1: pad is going to be two main sections. It's gonna

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Speaker 1: be how to win, and then it's going to be

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Speaker 1: positioned by position. What are we looking for when we're

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Speaker 1: actually evaluating these players? But let's start with how do

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Speaker 1: we win? Sean, You've done a lot of winning in

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Speaker 1: fantasy over the past. I don't know, I'm not even

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Speaker 1: gonna date you, but I'm going to say a very

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Speaker 1: very large stretch of your life. You could say it

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Speaker 1: about three decades, a long, long time.

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Speaker 2: Randy Moss's rookie season was actually my first draft ever,

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Speaker 2: if you want to date me.

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Speaker 1: But yeah, I.

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Speaker 2: Think at a high level, just general, you know, principles

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Speaker 2: on how to win, especially if you you're starting, you know,

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Speaker 2: for the first time in a specific format, is to

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Speaker 2: have specific player rankings by position for that specific league

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Speaker 2: based on the league scoring. So there's unique leagues that

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Speaker 2: reward four points for a passing touchdown or six points

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Speaker 2: for a passing touchdown or full PPR things like that.

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Speaker 2: You just want to make sure that your rankings are

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Speaker 2: based on that league's scoring. And then from there, you know,

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Speaker 2: you kind of want to have a general idea of

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Speaker 2: your draft strategy based on where you're picking from. So

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Speaker 2: when you have picks one through four or nine through twelve,

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Speaker 2: you're probably going to have a different strategy just based

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Speaker 2: on the players that you're going to even have access

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Speaker 2: to in the first few rounds, and then from there

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Speaker 2: you're gonna have to draft according to position needs. So

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Speaker 2: having a basic draft plan, you know for the first

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Speaker 2: you know, four picks middle of the draft or later

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Speaker 2: is important, and then I know you're going to talk

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Speaker 2: about this, we both agree, but average draft position is

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Speaker 2: so key.

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Speaker 1: Knowing when players are.

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Speaker 2: Going to go is the name of the game because

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Speaker 2: that kind of dictates your strategy of you know, you

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Speaker 2: got to take a certain player because he's not going

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Speaker 2: to make it back to you, or you know, you

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Speaker 2: know that these certain players will fall to this round.

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Speaker 2: So they're a nice backup plan. But specifically for your league.

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Speaker 2: Ideally you're in a league with friends, family, where you

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Speaker 2: really know what teams and players they like, and that'll

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Speaker 2: give you a better sense as to win players are

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Speaker 2: going to go ahead or behind adp. So if you're

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Speaker 2: in a league of buddies that you know have a

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Speaker 2: handful of Bears, die hard Bears fans, you have to

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Speaker 2: assume players like Kayleb Williams, DJ Moore, Colson Lovelin might

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Speaker 2: go a little earlier than ADP. So just having a

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Speaker 2: good sense of your league in general and how and

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Speaker 2: when they'll draft is critical. But I think you know,

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Speaker 2: having good rankings based on projections and understanding you know,

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Speaker 2: average draft position, win guys will go is the key

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Speaker 2: to having successful draft, which is obviously very important when

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Speaker 2: it comes to building you know, winning fantasy football team.

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Speaker 1: Yeah. Absolutely. At its core, winning in fantasy football is

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Speaker 1: it starts with the draft, and the draft is about

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Speaker 1: maximizing your value in relation to the draft capital that

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Speaker 1: you have, and that could come in big chunks. It

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Speaker 1: could come all in a few players, but it's possible

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Speaker 1: it can come as much as almost every single pick

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Speaker 1: or round in the draft. So you have to be

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Speaker 1: aware of how to build edges in different ways. And

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Speaker 1: I think ADP, because of that, is the most valuable

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Speaker 1: draft data point, because even if I didn't have my

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Speaker 1: rankings on our projections, I would at least know how

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Speaker 1: to out know the consensus and I but I would

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Speaker 1: also and I would know how to fade them. So

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Speaker 1: you're not gonna win by following ADP. That's why accurate

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Speaker 1: rankings are so important. But knowing that ADP is something

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Speaker 1: that is an average and that it's generally predictive of

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Speaker 1: how the draft's gonna unfold overall, it gives you a

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Speaker 1: lot of ways to attack. And I think sometimes you're

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Speaker 1: going to see edges in terms of positional value. That

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Speaker 1: is a big thing. Where let's say you have rankings

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Speaker 1: and those rankings are correct from a positional standpoint in

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Speaker 1: terms of, you know, generally, but there could still be

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Speaker 1: a lot of different ways a draft could unfold. If

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Speaker 1: you had let's say, Saquon Barkley and Derrick Henriett as

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Speaker 1: the you know, running back two and three last year,

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Speaker 1: well if everyone's just fading running back for the first

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Speaker 1: two rounds, you know, it completely changes up the draft.

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Speaker 1: And so I think the key is understanding the value

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Speaker 1: in terms of positions, you know, not just players within

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Speaker 1: those positions, and then being able to take advantage of

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Speaker 1: that as the draft unfolds. All the everything you're trying

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Speaker 1: to do, all the edges you're trying to build, they

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Speaker 1: can happen even when you're not picking, because not only

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Speaker 1: are you trying to maximize positional value, which tends to

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Speaker 1: happen when there's a run on a certain position. And

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Speaker 1: you know last year a lot of people drafting wide receiver.

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Speaker 1: Early this year, there's a point late in the first round,

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Speaker 1: early second where there's a bunch of running backs, some

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Speaker 1: more risky than others go. So there's always these kind

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Speaker 1: of pockets. And we'll talk about one of our favorite

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Speaker 1: pockets have been later on the show. But there are

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Speaker 1: positional pockets that tend to emerge year after year. So

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Speaker 1: that's one of your biggest edges. Always understanding how to

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Speaker 1: fade the consensus is key because what you see with

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Speaker 1: average draft position is when you're when you start going

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Speaker 1: off the board by more than a roundsworth of picks

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Speaker 1: early in drafts, it's yeah, that's when you start seeing

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Speaker 1: a downtick. But if you're generally keeping it to guys

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Speaker 1: where they were to make it back to you the

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Speaker 1: next round, that's when I think you shouldn't be hesitant

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Speaker 1: to follow adp or ranks, whatever it is to the

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Speaker 1: t each time. You're gonna get a lot of potential

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Speaker 1: outcomes that are different by switching it up, especially if

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Speaker 1: you draft you know more than one team you don't

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Speaker 1: want to just be kind of going by, you know,

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Speaker 1: these strict rules because it's it's gonna let the draft

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Speaker 1: kind of determine, it's gonna dictate too much. You want

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Speaker 1: to be in position to dictate. So I think the

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Speaker 1: biggest edges tend to come from fading ADP, but within

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Speaker 1: doing it well and knowing how to do it, you know,

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Speaker 1: now just doing it for the sake of being contrarian,

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Speaker 1: because you still there's still only a small window of

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Speaker 1: players that you're gonna really want to pivot to fate.

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Speaker 1: But fading the media, I think is something that's so easy.

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Speaker 1: I mean, there's just so many puff pieces this time

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Speaker 1: of year, so, uh, you're gonna be able to fade

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Speaker 1: the media pretty much all year. And and everything's just gotten

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Speaker 1: crazy with the box and AI and just the current

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Speaker 1: media landscape. So I'm sure that's gonna be even more valuable.

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Speaker 1: And but you also got to know how to fade experts.

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Speaker 1: And what I mean by that is there's there's a

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Speaker 1: lot of very smart people in this industry. Uh, you know,

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Speaker 1: obviously you're one of them, Sean, But whatever the dominant

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Speaker 1: strategy emerges between you know, certain consensus of experts, uh,

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Speaker 1: it's going to influence a lot of drafts, and you

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Speaker 1: have to kind of understand, you know, what, what's going

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Speaker 1: on there, and that if everyone else is kind of

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Speaker 1: doing the same strategy that was only supposed to work

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Speaker 1: because no one was doing it, it's it's probably not

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Speaker 1: gonna work. So there's a lot to just really nailing

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Speaker 1: that position of value and trying to find your edges

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Speaker 1: by slowly but surely cumulatively every every round building up

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Speaker 1: a little bit more of an edge, and by not

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Speaker 1: taking busts early. I think that is one of the

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Speaker 1: biggest things, So really understanding not necessarily who you're gonna

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Speaker 1: targe because you don't know who's gonna exactly be there,

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Speaker 1: but you can control who you can kind of fade.

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Speaker 1: So I think that's that's always a big one for me.

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Speaker 1: Sean is early in drafts you always say you can't

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Speaker 1: really win your league, but you can you can lose it,

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Speaker 1: And I think it's the same thing with sleepers versus

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Speaker 1: busts or targets versus bus It's like you can't control

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Speaker 1: who's there at your draft slot, but you can control

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Speaker 1: who you don't draft because you're you know, you kind

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Speaker 1: of have a strong opinion about Okay, well, either they're

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Speaker 1: not going to be there, or if they are, I'm

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Speaker 1: not taking them. So I always actually valued my kind

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Speaker 1: of do not draft with a little more than my

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Speaker 1: targets list, because I think that's really where draft for

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Speaker 1: one early in the weegue or lost early in the draft. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: that's a great point.

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Speaker 2: And yeah, just when it comes to the first few rounds, again,

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Speaker 2: you're just trying to avoid disaster, and sometimes it's out

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Speaker 2: of your control. Like heading into the season, we didn't

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Speaker 2: know Christian McCaffery was dealing with like an achilles injury

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Speaker 2: that you know, pretty much wiped out his entire season.

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Speaker 2: That can happen. That's again that's outside your control. But

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Speaker 2: there are guys in the first few rounds that are risky.

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Speaker 2: Maybe they are dealing with a known injury heading into

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Speaker 2: the season, or they're on a new team, or they're

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Speaker 2: getting older where they just have more risk than other

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Speaker 2: players in the first few rounds. And that's kind of

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Speaker 2: what I like to do, is avoid those guys, just

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Speaker 2: go the safest route, because you know all those guys are,

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Speaker 2: you know, being drafted in the first few rounds for

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Speaker 2: a reason. They're they're pretty much all gonna do well

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Speaker 2: if they stay healthy, so I just, you know, play

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Speaker 2: it safe. And then it's the middle to later rounds.

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Speaker 2: That's when I'm swinging for the fences, taking big chances

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Speaker 2: where a guy, you know, he's not a guaranteed lock

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Speaker 2: to go off this year, But that's that's when I'm

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Speaker 2: more willing to take risks where you know, the first

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Speaker 2: three rounds, I maybe playing it much much safer and

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Speaker 2: being a little bit more conservative when it comes to

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Speaker 2: you know, who I'm drafting exactly.

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Speaker 1: And that's why the ability to adjust dynamically to your

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Speaker 1: draft is so important, and it's something that the best

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Speaker 1: way to do it is just to have the knowledge

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Speaker 1: yourself and be prepared because there have been over the years,

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Speaker 1: and you know, you've mentioned it, You've been doing this

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Speaker 1: for three decades. I'm around the same UH, and we've

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Speaker 1: seen so many different strategies come and go and so

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Speaker 1: many different methods of doing it. And now, you know,

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Speaker 1: I'm sure everyone thinks they can kind of do it

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Speaker 1: with AI and this and and different things like that.

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Speaker 1: And at the end of the day, if you rely

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Speaker 1: on anything other than being present with the correct UH,

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Speaker 1: knowledge in your draft, you're you're you're not maximizing your

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Speaker 1: potential edges. So I think that you know, kind of

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Speaker 1: getting getting those things out of the way, making sure

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Speaker 1: you have your rank is making sure you have everything

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Speaker 1: so that you you can just draft and not worry,

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Speaker 1: you know, not be overloaded with decision fatigue. And that's

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Speaker 1: where I think, you know, even things like people don't

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Speaker 1: talk about this as much in fantasy, but winning the

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Speaker 1: intangible game, right, you know, you kind of alluded to

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Speaker 1: it sean league rules, scoring settings, Uh, you know, if

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Speaker 1: somebody's drafting in more than one league, if if you know,

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Speaker 1: they might not be paying as much attention to that,

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Speaker 1: or I think another one is just with when it

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Speaker 1: comes to these projections that we do. I think one

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Speaker 1: of the biggest edges for us is always we find

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Speaker 1: that even compared to a lot of consensus and other experts,

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Speaker 1: players who are going to miss time with injury or

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Speaker 1: suspension that's already guaranteed to happen pretty much like it's

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Speaker 1: already a certainty, those players tend to be very overvalued.

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Speaker 1: It's really hard to kind of properly value them when

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Speaker 1: it's not you know, it's going to be something less

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Speaker 1: than a full season, and maybe even something less than

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Speaker 1: three quarters of a season, So you know, things like

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Speaker 1: that winning the intangible game. I think one of the

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Speaker 1: keys that people tend to struggle with at all levels

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Speaker 1: of fantasy is the late rounds. And on one hand,

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Speaker 1: you could look at the numbers and say, there's not

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Speaker 1: a lot of important picks that get chosen there, But

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Speaker 1: that's the whole point. You know, as you said, Sean,

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Speaker 1: you got you got to play it safe early to

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Speaker 1: put yourself in position that if you hit one of

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Speaker 1: those picks, you know, it should be game over because

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Speaker 1: there's only going to be so many you know, pooking

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Speaker 1: the cops and guys like that each year, Bucky Irving,

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Speaker 1: who you nailed, But if you didn't set up your

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Speaker 1: team and you took too many chances early, and it's

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Speaker 1: not a best ball format, and we'll do a whole

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Speaker 1: nother pot on that bout the way. Because it's such

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Speaker 1: a different even though a lot of times the ranks

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Speaker 1: more or less come up similarly, it's it's a total

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Speaker 1: different strategy. But I think it's really about, uh, you know,

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Speaker 1: kind of winning all these different ways in drafts, and

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Speaker 1: you know, putting yourself in position to where, you know,

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Speaker 1: hitting on a mid round pick, a late round pick,

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Speaker 1: when it gets less likely it is going to do

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Speaker 1: even more for you. So, uh, you know, what do

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Speaker 1: you what do you kind of do when you're as

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Speaker 1: you're going through a draft and you're you know, trying

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Speaker 1: to trying to get into that point in the draft

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Speaker 1: where you're saying, Okay, I kind of played to save

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Speaker 1: early on. I you know, prioritize my my floors and

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Speaker 1: other people probably drafted like flies because they're making bad picks.

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Speaker 1: When do you start to pivot? What comes into play?

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Speaker 2: What are you thinking about? I think it, well, it

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Speaker 2: depends on every draft. Again, it's kind of where your

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Speaker 2: draft slot position is that kind of dictates that for me.

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Speaker 2: But typically the middle rounds, I think people aren't willing

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Speaker 2: enough to be aggressive when it comes to the middle rounds.

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Speaker 2: If you drafted teams last year, go look at your

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Speaker 2: draft and see how many players you end up dropping,

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Speaker 2: you know, from like round five or six. Like sometimes

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Speaker 2: it's funny to go see like how off we all were,

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Speaker 2: Like ADP was on some of these guys.

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Speaker 1: So I'm only going to take shots pretty early on.

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Speaker 2: But I think at at a larger point, I think

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Speaker 2: this is where like mock drafting and just getting your

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Speaker 2: hands dirty certainly helps because you know, I play around

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Speaker 2: with what happens if I take you know, a quarterback

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Speaker 2: earlier like Josh Allen for Jackson, Like can I still

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Speaker 2: get the team I want? And by just having you

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Speaker 2: know a lot of mock drafts under my belt, I

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Speaker 2: kind of understand the builds that make sense, the players

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Speaker 2: that I keep, you know, finding fault to me in

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Speaker 2: you know, round.

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Speaker 1: Six through nine.

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Speaker 2: So I think just doing mock drafts and like really

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Speaker 2: trying out certain strategies and seeing what works what doesn't,

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Speaker 2: it actually helps me take care of blind spots, you know,

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Speaker 2: early on, Like a couple of months ago, my first

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Speaker 2: you know drafts I was doing, I was realizing I

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Speaker 2: wasn't taking receiver early enough. So you just kind of

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Speaker 2: hone in on your strategy when when you do all

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Speaker 2: these mock drafts. But typically, yeah, rounds five through ten

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Speaker 2: I think are critical to take the guys that you're

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Speaker 2: high on. Like, like you said, you don't always want

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Speaker 2: to follow ADP. That's not how you win. You got

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Speaker 2: to take stands on certain guys. Draft guys a little

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Speaker 2: bit ahead of ADP, making sure you get them knowing

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Speaker 2: which guys will fall in ADP. So I think just

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Speaker 2: getting all as many reps as possible to kind of

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Speaker 2: get your strategy down, because again it changes based on

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Speaker 2: your draft order. But again I think that those rounds

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Speaker 2: five through ten are so critical on getting those league

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Speaker 2: winner type guys.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, and that's what we're doing, like maniacs in March.

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Speaker 1: And I mean, you know, for anyone that's not familiar

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Speaker 1: with Best Ball, the the average draft position is so sharp.

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Speaker 1: The minute the draft happens, people have already been taking

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Speaker 1: these rookies what seems like way too high, and it

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Speaker 1: tends to be higher than they go sometimes in August drafts.

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Speaker 1: So that's what we're kind of doing. But I found

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Speaker 1: that you know, first of all, if you're not if

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Speaker 1: you're just trying to if you're a you know, more

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Speaker 1: of a nubie or intermediate like, that's that's gonna be

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Speaker 1: in any that's going to all be reflected in our rankings.

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Speaker 1: If you're really if you're really trying to be an

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Speaker 1: ex but you don't want to do or you don't

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Speaker 1: have time to do, like a hundred mot drafts, like

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Speaker 1: probably even more than that. I mean, we get under

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Speaker 1: our belts between like real drafts, mock drafts, everything in between.

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Speaker 1: I think just I think the most valuable thing for

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Speaker 1: me is just looking at the at the average draft position,

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Speaker 1: which again is why I say it's it's always the

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Speaker 1: most valuable data point in my opinion, because you could

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Speaker 1: just kind of look at it round by round, apply

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Speaker 1: to your league or whatever, and start from the bottom

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Speaker 1: and say, Okay, if I'm in a twelve team league

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Speaker 1: that goes fifteen rounds, who do I like in round fifteen?

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Speaker 1: Just asking yourself that question and saying you a lot

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Speaker 1: of times, what you're gonna find is, you know, there's

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Speaker 1: a couple of quarterbacks here that I would take, And

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Speaker 1: you know, we'll start to get into into the weeds

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Speaker 1: on position of strategy metrics that we like to use

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Speaker 1: and don't, but generally speaking, you're gonna if you look

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Speaker 1: at the draft kind of upside down, even if you're

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Speaker 1: not necessarily mocking or doing real drafts or something like that,

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Speaker 1: just kind of being able to look and say, Okay,

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Speaker 1: these are the players that tend to be available here,

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Speaker 1: and these are the guys you know, these are the

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Speaker 1: positions that kind of stand out. These are the guys

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Speaker 1: that stand out against that that adp. Sometimes there's a lot.

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Speaker 1: Sometimes it's half the half, the quarterbacks, you know, the

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Speaker 1: backup quarterbacks. Sometimes it's only one or two guys, so

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Speaker 1: and you never know who's going to be there. It's

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Speaker 1: average draft position, but it's so valuable because I think

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Speaker 1: what happens a lot of times is if you're drafting

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Speaker 1: against people that you're better than that, they're naturally Probably

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Speaker 1: one of the reasons you're better than them is because

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Speaker 1: they're not putting as much effort or they don't have

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Speaker 1: as much knowledge about the light rounds. But even experts,

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Speaker 1: because we do this so often and we do this

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Speaker 1: all year, I think we tend to be biased towards

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Speaker 1: the guys we like, and you know that we tout

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Speaker 1: and so there's there's multiple ways to kind of get

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Speaker 1: an edge regardless of who you're playing against. And there's

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Speaker 1: so much upside to it because a lot of the

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Speaker 1: picks you can make late, like you got like a

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Speaker 1: guy like a Let's say you just throw Keaton Mitchell

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Speaker 1: or somebody on your team. They're gonna screw guys if

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Speaker 1: they hit. They're also gonna screw teams that drafted players early.

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Speaker 1: You know, even if it doesn't happen quite like that,

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Speaker 1: it's a lot of times what what happened is you know,

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Speaker 1: I remember us always talking about like Jarious Tony was

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Speaker 1: the guy that I think we were low on, and uh,

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Speaker 1: if you drafted the guy go after him or with

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Speaker 1: Shanahan's backfield. A lot of times the guy that goes

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Speaker 1: after him much later, you somebody wasted a draft pick.

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Speaker 1: And that's why I say it's all about building those

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Speaker 1: edges and avoiding busts early, because by avoiding a bus

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Speaker 1: you could win twelve times in a round. Let's say,

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Speaker 1: let's say in a hypothetical situation, there were you know,

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Speaker 1: everyone else in a twelve team league, AH, chose a

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Speaker 1: bust and you chose somebody that smashed. You didn't win.

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Speaker 1: You didn't just get an edge once that round. You

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Speaker 1: got an edge tough times. So it's I think that's

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Speaker 1: how you have to think about it in terms of

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Speaker 1: of of getting an edge, and that you can. You

401
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Speaker 1: can do it in so many different ways and you

402
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Speaker 1: have to use all of them, and it's it's going

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Speaker 1: to change depending on your draft. One thing I want

404
00:23:32,400 --> 00:23:35,439
Speaker 1: to get your thoughts on before we jump to positions

405
00:23:36,280 --> 00:23:43,719
Speaker 1: is drafting based on rankings, and you know how to

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Speaker 1: do it and how not to do it because you

407
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Speaker 1: are go to rankings their year and I know sometimes

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Speaker 1: you you get frustrated because there's there could still be

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Speaker 1: times when somebody drafts wrong. And so to speak off

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Speaker 1: your rankings, you got to talk to me about what

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Speaker 1: that's about.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I think that's that's a critical point, because you

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Speaker 2: know our rankings are going to differ from ADP. You know,

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Speaker 2: where we're going to have a guy we ranked, you know,

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Speaker 2: thirty slots higher than ADP. Let's say, so that's like

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Speaker 2: two to three rounds ahead of ADP. And a common

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Speaker 2: mistake I see people make is they draft that guy

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Speaker 2: where we have him ranked, so a couple of rounds early.

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Speaker 2: You know, in theory, that's that's good because you know,

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Speaker 2: we are projecting that guy to be better than the

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Speaker 2: market thinks. But you're kind of killing the value by

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Speaker 2: doing that, because the idea is you want to get

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Speaker 2: him as close to ADP as possible, knowing that he's

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Speaker 2: better than where he's getting drafted. Or in theory, you

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Speaker 2: know he's offering more upside than where he's getting drafted.

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Speaker 2: Now that doesn't mean you just wait until you know

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Speaker 2: exactly where he goes.

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Speaker 1: You will want to, you know.

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Speaker 2: Take that guy a little bit ahead of ADP, so

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Speaker 2: you make sure you get him. But again, you want

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Speaker 2: to wait as long as possible, as long as you

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Speaker 2: can in theory to get him. That's kind of how

433
00:25:04,760 --> 00:25:07,439
Speaker 2: you're locking in the value is getting that guy a

434
00:25:07,480 --> 00:25:10,639
Speaker 2: couple rounds later than he should is the name of

435
00:25:10,680 --> 00:25:14,119
Speaker 2: the game in my opinion. And you know that's I

436
00:25:14,160 --> 00:25:16,760
Speaker 2: haven't rolled him out yet, but over the next couple weeks,

437
00:25:16,760 --> 00:25:20,480
Speaker 2: I'm gonna have my tiers and strategy pieces for every position.

438
00:25:21,040 --> 00:25:23,320
Speaker 2: And I think it's also important to kind of talk

439
00:25:23,359 --> 00:25:26,240
Speaker 2: about the idea of tiers in general. I like to

440
00:25:26,320 --> 00:25:31,760
Speaker 2: bucket guys within position within tiers because a lot of

441
00:25:31,760 --> 00:25:35,280
Speaker 2: the guys that you know we ranked, you know, we

442
00:25:35,359 --> 00:25:39,640
Speaker 2: could have say wide receivers ten through twenty separated by

443
00:25:40,000 --> 00:25:42,640
Speaker 2: like a point or two, so we really consider all

444
00:25:42,640 --> 00:25:47,800
Speaker 2: those guys interchangeable. Where you know, someone's taking the wide

445
00:25:47,800 --> 00:25:52,920
Speaker 2: receiver ten and you know round two, whereas somebody going

446
00:25:52,920 --> 00:25:56,240
Speaker 2: in round four is just like a couple points lower.

447
00:25:56,560 --> 00:25:58,880
Speaker 2: In our projections, but you're gonna have a couple rounds later,

448
00:25:58,960 --> 00:26:02,520
Speaker 2: So knowing that you can kind of decide when to

449
00:26:02,640 --> 00:26:06,200
Speaker 2: draft certain positions. So I get like way more detailed

450
00:26:06,240 --> 00:26:09,400
Speaker 2: and granial level when in my tiers pieces. But it's

451
00:26:09,440 --> 00:26:13,240
Speaker 2: important to just kind of bucket players within the positions

452
00:26:13,280 --> 00:26:16,800
Speaker 2: themselves in tiers to to kind of get a sense

453
00:26:16,840 --> 00:26:20,280
Speaker 2: when it's important, when it's critical to attack a position,

454
00:26:20,359 --> 00:26:22,520
Speaker 2: because you know there's going to be a big drop

455
00:26:22,560 --> 00:26:25,679
Speaker 2: off from that player to the next. So I think

456
00:26:26,440 --> 00:26:29,239
Speaker 2: at a high level, uh, when it comes to that,

457
00:26:29,320 --> 00:26:32,359
Speaker 2: you're you're thinking in terms of tiers, but also, like

458
00:26:32,400 --> 00:26:34,800
Speaker 2: you said, when you're comparing rankings to ADP, you don't

459
00:26:34,800 --> 00:26:37,080
Speaker 2: want to you know, rob the value by taking them

460
00:26:37,080 --> 00:26:39,320
Speaker 2: too early. You do want to draft them, you know,

461
00:26:39,320 --> 00:26:41,920
Speaker 2: as late as you can, as close to ADP. That's

462
00:26:41,960 --> 00:26:44,520
Speaker 2: how you're you're locking in value. And that's that's the

463
00:26:44,560 --> 00:26:47,160
Speaker 2: mistake I see people see is they just draft based

464
00:26:47,200 --> 00:26:49,920
Speaker 2: on our rankings, which which is smart, but you need

465
00:26:49,960 --> 00:26:52,440
Speaker 2: to you need to be factoring in when they're going

466
00:26:52,480 --> 00:26:52,880
Speaker 2: as well.

467
00:26:54,280 --> 00:26:58,360
Speaker 1: Absolutely, and it's even more crucial when you're drafting in

468
00:26:58,400 --> 00:27:01,560
Speaker 1: those first few round I would say the first five

469
00:27:01,640 --> 00:27:04,400
Speaker 1: or six rounds, because that's when you're drafting the core

470
00:27:04,480 --> 00:27:06,480
Speaker 1: of your team, and there's always so high for a

471
00:27:06,480 --> 00:27:09,359
Speaker 1: guy to go. There's not going to be a big

472
00:27:09,480 --> 00:27:16,040
Speaker 1: edge to necessarily a guy who is taken let's say

473
00:27:16,680 --> 00:27:18,280
Speaker 1: in the third round instead of the fifth, like he

474
00:27:18,320 --> 00:27:20,400
Speaker 1: still only has two rounds to go up. It might

475
00:27:20,440 --> 00:27:24,200
Speaker 1: be a big value compared to the consensus in our

476
00:27:24,320 --> 00:27:27,000
Speaker 1: ranks or somebody else's ranks, but at the end of

477
00:27:27,040 --> 00:27:29,520
Speaker 1: the day, a guy taken early, there's always so much

478
00:27:29,560 --> 00:27:33,560
Speaker 1: higher he can go in terms of ceiling, so there's

479
00:27:33,600 --> 00:27:35,680
Speaker 1: a kind of a limit to how much you can win.

480
00:27:35,760 --> 00:27:37,800
Speaker 1: So that's why to your point, you want to just

481
00:27:38,800 --> 00:27:42,600
Speaker 1: ideally get him at or below ADP then, and that's

482
00:27:42,600 --> 00:27:44,720
Speaker 1: really kind of what it is. Almost throughout the draft,

483
00:27:44,760 --> 00:27:47,080
Speaker 1: you're trying to get guys at or below ADP. You're

484
00:27:47,119 --> 00:27:52,520
Speaker 1: really never trying to reach, especially in traditional non basketball

485
00:27:52,560 --> 00:27:56,360
Speaker 1: formats where there's not even stacking coming into play necessarily,

486
00:27:56,760 --> 00:28:01,800
Speaker 1: because even if there's a positional run, a lot of

487
00:28:01,840 --> 00:28:04,600
Speaker 1: times it can make the most sense to or the

488
00:28:04,760 --> 00:28:07,760
Speaker 1: value is going to show in not just following it blindly.

489
00:28:08,040 --> 00:28:11,800
Speaker 1: It's gonna be the pivot to maybe not this, not

490
00:28:11,840 --> 00:28:13,800
Speaker 1: even like, if let's say there's a big run on

491
00:28:14,200 --> 00:28:17,760
Speaker 1: running backs, sometimes it might not even be worth it

492
00:28:17,800 --> 00:28:20,200
Speaker 1: to like, okay, just take the next wide receiver. Maybe

493
00:28:20,200 --> 00:28:22,840
Speaker 1: now you can get a team with Brock Bowers and

494
00:28:22,880 --> 00:28:25,280
Speaker 1: a stud quarterback or something like that. That teams that

495
00:28:25,320 --> 00:28:27,639
Speaker 1: you just couldn't build if there wasn't this run. So

496
00:28:27,800 --> 00:28:31,760
Speaker 1: there's a lot of different ways trying to gain an edge,

497
00:28:31,840 --> 00:28:34,440
Speaker 1: and it's all gonna depend on how the draft unfolds.

498
00:28:34,480 --> 00:28:36,560
Speaker 1: And that's really what we're trying to stress is that

499
00:28:36,640 --> 00:28:39,280
Speaker 1: there are these different ways to get edges, and you know,

500
00:28:39,320 --> 00:28:42,720
Speaker 1: there are message to do them, but there's no one way.

501
00:28:42,840 --> 00:28:46,440
Speaker 1: There's no one strategy, there's no one thing. The average

502
00:28:46,520 --> 00:28:51,600
Speaker 1: draft position is an average, So always remember that. I

503
00:28:51,640 --> 00:28:54,840
Speaker 1: think that is so key and it's a good segue

504
00:28:54,960 --> 00:29:01,520
Speaker 1: into positional strategy. And man, it used to just be

505
00:29:02,160 --> 00:29:05,120
Speaker 1: running backs. Everyone was taking running backs at the top

506
00:29:05,160 --> 00:29:09,200
Speaker 1: of the draft. And then somewhere along the line, the

507
00:29:09,320 --> 00:29:13,600
Speaker 1: NFL got smart to it and they started realizing that,

508
00:29:13,880 --> 00:29:17,240
Speaker 1: you know, just like as fantasy owners started realizing, these

509
00:29:17,280 --> 00:29:19,760
Speaker 1: guys get hurt a lot, maybe we shouldn't build our

510
00:29:19,920 --> 00:29:22,920
Speaker 1: entire offenses around them, our entire teams around them, and

511
00:29:23,000 --> 00:29:26,520
Speaker 1: so the leaves changed a lot. And what's the resulted

512
00:29:26,600 --> 00:29:30,520
Speaker 1: is receivers are just as in I would say at

513
00:29:30,520 --> 00:29:34,479
Speaker 1: this point, tend to be more valuable early on than

514
00:29:34,560 --> 00:29:38,720
Speaker 1: running backs. And there is a big reason for that,

515
00:29:39,440 --> 00:29:42,520
Speaker 1: and we're going to get into it. But what it

516
00:29:42,600 --> 00:29:47,840
Speaker 1: really creates is a situation where you still have your

517
00:29:47,840 --> 00:29:51,920
Speaker 1: study running backs, still have your stud receivers obviously, but

518
00:29:52,080 --> 00:29:57,720
Speaker 1: after that there's a frozen pond, right, Sean, just I mean,

519
00:29:58,000 --> 00:30:01,160
Speaker 1: what is the frozen pond? Well, tell everybody out.

520
00:30:01,600 --> 00:30:03,880
Speaker 2: Yeah, So, I mean, just at a high level, you

521
00:30:03,960 --> 00:30:07,440
Speaker 2: made an excellent point that just running backs, they're they're

522
00:30:07,560 --> 00:30:11,160
Speaker 2: very They're still very important, important and fancy, but they

523
00:30:11,200 --> 00:30:14,880
Speaker 2: are the most fragile position for a variety of reasons.

524
00:30:14,920 --> 00:30:17,360
Speaker 1: But there is this range.

525
00:30:17,080 --> 00:30:21,120
Speaker 2: Now where us other experts are very cautious when we're

526
00:30:21,160 --> 00:30:24,040
Speaker 2: drafting running backs because we know the risks, and.

527
00:30:23,960 --> 00:30:25,720
Speaker 1: A lot of people call it the dead zone.

528
00:30:26,200 --> 00:30:28,680
Speaker 2: I don't love that name because it implies you you

529
00:30:28,720 --> 00:30:31,440
Speaker 2: don't want anybody in this range. That's not true either.

530
00:30:31,480 --> 00:30:33,520
Speaker 2: I think there's there's gonna be guys we want to

531
00:30:33,560 --> 00:30:36,280
Speaker 2: target in this range. But I like calling it the

532
00:30:36,320 --> 00:30:40,920
Speaker 2: frozen pond. Here because in theory, it's you know, all

533
00:30:40,960 --> 00:30:44,600
Speaker 2: these running backs on surface seems safe. You know they're

534
00:30:44,640 --> 00:30:47,320
Speaker 2: heading into week one as the team starting running back,

535
00:30:47,400 --> 00:30:51,280
Speaker 2: let's say, or they had a really good season last year.

536
00:30:51,560 --> 00:30:56,240
Speaker 2: They seem safe on the surface. But you and I

537
00:30:56,280 --> 00:31:00,479
Speaker 2: can identify red flags where you know one thing can

538
00:31:00,600 --> 00:31:04,080
Speaker 2: change and boom. You know, their value tanks. Their floor

539
00:31:04,200 --> 00:31:08,040
Speaker 2: is much much lower than people realize. And what happens

540
00:31:08,080 --> 00:31:11,080
Speaker 2: if you're walking on like a frozen pond and the cracks,

541
00:31:11,880 --> 00:31:14,920
Speaker 2: you're cooked and it happens instantly. Doesn't mean that you

542
00:31:14,920 --> 00:31:20,960
Speaker 2: can't get across the pond unscathed. But that's that's kind

543
00:31:20,960 --> 00:31:23,960
Speaker 2: of what the range I would say, like running backs

544
00:31:24,040 --> 00:31:29,200
Speaker 2: ten through thirty are kind of in that bucket where

545
00:31:29,360 --> 00:31:31,880
Speaker 2: you know, for any number of reasons, And I know

546
00:31:31,960 --> 00:31:35,720
Speaker 2: you have your reasons to potentially avoid some of these backs,

547
00:31:35,720 --> 00:31:37,760
Speaker 2: but it could it include you.

548
00:31:37,680 --> 00:31:40,240
Speaker 1: Know, changing teams or changing schemes.

549
00:31:41,240 --> 00:31:43,280
Speaker 2: You know, they might be getting older, they might be

550
00:31:43,320 --> 00:31:46,960
Speaker 2: on the wrong side of thirty. You know, they might

551
00:31:47,160 --> 00:31:51,120
Speaker 2: not have a strong of grip on the lead role

552
00:31:51,560 --> 00:31:53,880
Speaker 2: like people might think. Like last year, I kept saying,

553
00:31:53,920 --> 00:31:58,120
Speaker 2: Rashad White, you know he has the most competition she's

554
00:31:58,200 --> 00:32:00,400
Speaker 2: ever seen in you know, his three years in the

555
00:32:00,440 --> 00:32:04,840
Speaker 2: NFL with Bucky Irving now backing him up. So things

556
00:32:04,920 --> 00:32:07,520
Speaker 2: like that can be a red flag. But that's kind

557
00:32:07,520 --> 00:32:11,680
Speaker 2: of the term we use for these running backs. We're

558
00:32:11,720 --> 00:32:13,960
Speaker 2: in the you know, running back ten through thirty range,

559
00:32:13,960 --> 00:32:17,640
Speaker 2: where on the surface it might seem you know, nice

560
00:32:17,680 --> 00:32:20,200
Speaker 2: and shiny, but there might be some reasons.

561
00:32:19,880 --> 00:32:21,520
Speaker 1: Why you know they're gonna tank.

562
00:32:21,960 --> 00:32:24,200
Speaker 2: You might you know, not be able to play them,

563
00:32:24,800 --> 00:32:27,719
Speaker 2: or might have to outright drop them based on all

564
00:32:27,760 --> 00:32:31,080
Speaker 2: these reasons. But it's a very risky and delicate range

565
00:32:31,120 --> 00:32:34,720
Speaker 2: to be drafting running backs. Is the frozen pond tier.

566
00:32:35,840 --> 00:32:39,520
Speaker 1: Absolutely, and we'll talk exactly how to draft running backs

567
00:32:39,520 --> 00:32:42,200
Speaker 1: in the frozen pond tier. But now that we've kind

568
00:32:42,200 --> 00:32:45,680
Speaker 1: of told you guy what it is, what exactly the

569
00:32:45,680 --> 00:32:49,960
Speaker 1: frozen pond tier of running backs is as a definition,

570
00:32:50,320 --> 00:32:53,280
Speaker 1: Let's look at a couple. Let's just tease a couple.

571
00:32:53,400 --> 00:32:56,160
Speaker 1: Now we have our eye on heading into twenty twenty five,

572
00:32:56,520 --> 00:32:59,920
Speaker 1: presented by Yahoo Fantasy. Sean take us off.

573
00:33:00,440 --> 00:33:03,880
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'd say Aaron Jones of the Vikings is one

574
00:33:03,920 --> 00:33:06,840
Speaker 2: that sticks out for me. He's being drafted running back

575
00:33:06,880 --> 00:33:11,120
Speaker 2: twenty five. Once again, on the surface, seems like a

576
00:33:11,160 --> 00:33:16,240
Speaker 2: steal because he finished RB sixteen last year. Granted he

577
00:33:16,360 --> 00:33:20,400
Speaker 2: played every single game. He didn't get injured miss any time,

578
00:33:21,240 --> 00:33:24,480
Speaker 2: so that alone is kind of a red flag. Typically

579
00:33:24,560 --> 00:33:27,160
Speaker 2: running backs do miss a handful of games. So he

580
00:33:27,240 --> 00:33:31,520
Speaker 2: was very fortunate in terms of his injury luck last year.

581
00:33:31,840 --> 00:33:34,400
Speaker 2: But he didn't have much competition. He had what Cam

582
00:33:34,440 --> 00:33:38,400
Speaker 2: Akers and ty Chandler were his backups, so they couldn't

583
00:33:38,400 --> 00:33:42,440
Speaker 2: really push him for touches. This year, they brought in

584
00:33:42,760 --> 00:33:46,480
Speaker 2: Jordan Mason, who I think is very talented. He thrived

585
00:33:47,000 --> 00:33:49,880
Speaker 2: on the Niners last year when Christian McCaffrey was out,

586
00:33:50,480 --> 00:33:52,400
Speaker 2: and they're already saying, you know, he might eat into

587
00:33:52,520 --> 00:33:55,520
Speaker 2: Aaron Jones' goalline usage. So this is a situation where

588
00:33:55,960 --> 00:33:58,360
Speaker 2: Aaron Jones, he's on the wrong side of thirty. He's

589
00:33:58,400 --> 00:33:59,880
Speaker 2: already thirty, he's turning thirty.

590
00:34:00,040 --> 00:34:03,960
Speaker 1: Won this year. He has added competition Jordan Mason.

591
00:34:05,240 --> 00:34:08,759
Speaker 2: And you know, he played every single game last year,

592
00:34:08,840 --> 00:34:11,200
Speaker 2: so I think he's going to be drafted closer to

593
00:34:11,320 --> 00:34:14,760
Speaker 2: his ceiling and his floor is much much lower because

594
00:34:14,960 --> 00:34:17,320
Speaker 2: you know, at times last year he had fumbling issues

595
00:34:17,320 --> 00:34:19,440
Speaker 2: and they tried to bench him but they didn't have

596
00:34:19,480 --> 00:34:22,400
Speaker 2: anybody that replaced him, so there's a chance that Mason

597
00:34:22,440 --> 00:34:26,080
Speaker 2: could outright replace Aaron Jones this year. So it's a

598
00:34:26,120 --> 00:34:29,600
Speaker 2: it's a risky situation. So you know, running back twenty five,

599
00:34:29,640 --> 00:34:31,880
Speaker 2: I think Aaron Jones kind of fits the bill of

600
00:34:32,239 --> 00:34:35,240
Speaker 2: somebody I would consider as part of the frozen pond.

601
00:34:35,239 --> 00:34:41,600
Speaker 1: Heier, I mean frozen pond. It seems like a old

602
00:34:41,680 --> 00:34:47,520
Speaker 1: school NFC Central type of deal. But then it's the

603
00:34:47,640 --> 00:34:49,920
Speaker 1: NFC North. Now I'm on to stay in that division.

604
00:34:50,239 --> 00:34:53,600
Speaker 1: I'm gonna go with the guy drafted even Highe and Jones,

605
00:34:54,120 --> 00:34:57,319
Speaker 1: and that's David Montgomery going at running back twenty one.

606
00:34:58,000 --> 00:35:01,360
Speaker 1: He does have the red flag of there's definitely a

607
00:35:01,400 --> 00:35:05,680
Speaker 1: guy to replace him, and Jamier Gibbs might have just

608
00:35:05,719 --> 00:35:08,480
Speaker 1: earned himself a bigger share of the workload just with

609
00:35:08,520 --> 00:35:11,400
Speaker 1: his performance last year. You have a new coaching staff,

610
00:35:11,560 --> 00:35:15,440
Speaker 1: You're expecting the Lions to have a tougher overall schedule

611
00:35:15,800 --> 00:35:21,200
Speaker 1: and thus game scripts, which tend to hurt early downbacks

612
00:35:21,360 --> 00:35:25,600
Speaker 1: a lot more because they're not getting as many chances

613
00:35:25,640 --> 00:35:27,800
Speaker 1: in the receiving game. They're not getting as many chances

614
00:35:28,280 --> 00:35:31,920
Speaker 1: to score touchdowns because the team isn't running at the

615
00:35:31,920 --> 00:35:33,759
Speaker 1: goal line as much and not getting to the goal

616
00:35:33,800 --> 00:35:39,200
Speaker 1: on as much, and that describes Montgomery's reliance and where

617
00:35:39,239 --> 00:35:41,279
Speaker 1: he scores the most fantasy points to a team. He's

618
00:35:41,320 --> 00:35:44,919
Speaker 1: also now at that and getting going to be past

619
00:35:44,960 --> 00:35:47,360
Speaker 1: that peak age for running backs. He's starting he started

620
00:35:47,360 --> 00:35:49,400
Speaker 1: to deal with some injuries. I just think there are

621
00:35:49,400 --> 00:35:53,040
Speaker 1: a lot of red flags for Montgomery, and then you

622
00:35:53,080 --> 00:35:56,080
Speaker 1: look at his efficiency, which is not always the most

623
00:35:56,080 --> 00:35:58,400
Speaker 1: important thing for a running back if he has a

624
00:35:58,480 --> 00:36:01,600
Speaker 1: locked in role, and Montgomery still will have some role,

625
00:36:01,680 --> 00:36:06,600
Speaker 1: of course, but his efficiency went down last year and

626
00:36:06,640 --> 00:36:08,920
Speaker 1: that's not a good sign, especially because it wasn't just

627
00:36:08,920 --> 00:36:13,160
Speaker 1: his after contact efficiency was it was before contact, And well,

628
00:36:13,200 --> 00:36:16,640
Speaker 1: that does tend to also bring in some of the

629
00:36:16,680 --> 00:36:21,359
Speaker 1: offensive line. The offensive line for Detroit is probably gonna

630
00:36:21,360 --> 00:36:24,080
Speaker 1: be a lot worse, especially on the interior where Montgomery

631
00:36:24,320 --> 00:36:26,480
Speaker 1: makes most of his hay. So just a lot of

632
00:36:26,480 --> 00:36:29,839
Speaker 1: things kind of pointing toward we've been getting rich kind

633
00:36:29,880 --> 00:36:32,920
Speaker 1: of taking Montgomery as a steal these last few years

634
00:36:32,920 --> 00:36:35,560
Speaker 1: and him out playing ADP and still finishing as the

635
00:36:35,680 --> 00:36:38,759
Speaker 1: RB two. But now there's no not as much room

636
00:36:38,800 --> 00:36:43,040
Speaker 1: for error unless you're just expecting Gibbs to miss more

637
00:36:43,080 --> 00:36:47,240
Speaker 1: than the normal running back games by probably at least double,

638
00:36:47,280 --> 00:36:48,960
Speaker 1: like if maybe he has to miss six or seven.

639
00:36:49,239 --> 00:36:54,160
Speaker 1: So I am all in on Montgomery on the frozen pond.

640
00:36:54,360 --> 00:36:58,480
Speaker 1: We got two NFC North running backs and fantasy football

641
00:36:58,600 --> 00:37:02,240
Speaker 1: is a back up the group chats, get those draft

642
00:37:02,239 --> 00:37:07,320
Speaker 1: boards ready, and buckle up for season filled with breakouts, busts,

643
00:37:07,440 --> 00:37:12,440
Speaker 1: overreactions and more. It's all happened in this year and

644
00:37:12,520 --> 00:37:16,520
Speaker 1: Sean nin we're playing on Yahoo Fantasy and you should too.

645
00:37:16,600 --> 00:37:21,120
Speaker 1: So whether you're a first timer or you're a vet

646
00:37:21,280 --> 00:37:27,080
Speaker 1: making your millionth league, now's the time to get excited.

647
00:37:28,080 --> 00:37:35,160
Speaker 1: Yahoo Fantasy has been the premiere fantasy platform for as

648
00:37:35,200 --> 00:37:39,960
Speaker 1: long as I can remember, and I was just man,

649
00:37:40,080 --> 00:37:42,759
Speaker 1: I was playing in strangers. That's how long ago I

650
00:37:42,800 --> 00:37:45,920
Speaker 1: can tell you that I've been playing on Yahoo. So

651
00:37:47,520 --> 00:37:50,680
Speaker 1: I just want to say you should be too. And

652
00:37:50,960 --> 00:37:56,840
Speaker 1: to celebrate twenty eight years of Yahoo's fantasy greatness, Yahoo

653
00:37:56,880 --> 00:38:00,640
Speaker 1: Fantasy is dropping twenty eight Big move Eature is over

654
00:38:00,719 --> 00:38:03,160
Speaker 1: twenty eight days, giving you more ways to play, more

655
00:38:03,160 --> 00:38:07,520
Speaker 1: ways to draft, and more ways to win. It all

656
00:38:07,560 --> 00:38:12,240
Speaker 1: begins August fourth, so stay tuned, get started by creating

657
00:38:12,320 --> 00:38:16,440
Speaker 1: or joining a Yahoo Fantasy football league today at Yahoo

658
00:38:16,840 --> 00:38:23,920
Speaker 1: Fantasy dot Com slash Flex. That's Yahoo Fantasy dot Com

659
00:38:23,960 --> 00:38:31,319
Speaker 1: slash Flex. Fantasy Flex listeners, it's your boy Chris array

660
00:38:31,400 --> 00:38:34,279
Speaker 1: Bi here and August twenty third, make sure you save

661
00:38:34,520 --> 00:38:38,439
Speaker 1: the date. Joe's on Breed Street in Chicago. Sean Kernan

662
00:38:38,480 --> 00:38:41,320
Speaker 1: is gonna be there. I'm gonna be there. Some special

663
00:38:41,320 --> 00:38:43,759
Speaker 1: guests will be there as well. All you need to

664
00:38:43,800 --> 00:38:49,360
Speaker 1: do rs VP link in the episode description. It is

665
00:38:49,400 --> 00:38:53,560
Speaker 1: free looking forward to seeing you there. We're gonna get

666
00:38:53,600 --> 00:38:58,520
Speaker 1: to talk about the froze and ponds, and I mean

667
00:38:59,360 --> 00:39:02,440
Speaker 1: it is so frozen this year. One way or another,

668
00:39:03,800 --> 00:39:09,759
Speaker 1: the frozen pond tier is going to dictate drafts, all

669
00:39:09,840 --> 00:39:16,759
Speaker 1: drafts because I mean, talk to me about just the

670
00:39:16,800 --> 00:39:19,799
Speaker 1: strategy of wide receiver versus running back. But with the

671
00:39:19,840 --> 00:39:24,880
Speaker 1: added wrinkle that this year almost everyone in drafts is

672
00:39:24,920 --> 00:39:28,399
Speaker 1: avoiding running backs for the in the third, fourth, fifth,

673
00:39:28,520 --> 00:39:33,040
Speaker 1: sixth rounds. So it's kind of put like, how does

674
00:39:33,040 --> 00:39:36,040
Speaker 1: that affect your draft strategy? How should that be affecting

675
00:39:36,040 --> 00:39:40,400
Speaker 1: people's draft strategies with this kind of massive swing toward

676
00:39:40,960 --> 00:39:44,480
Speaker 1: these middle round wide receivers and away from the running backs.

677
00:39:45,760 --> 00:39:49,160
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think it's it's I think it's moving closer

678
00:39:49,200 --> 00:39:52,360
Speaker 2: to my overall draft strategy is I definitely try to

679
00:39:52,440 --> 00:39:56,240
Speaker 2: get two to three wide receivers as early as possible,

680
00:39:57,440 --> 00:40:00,600
Speaker 2: because just when it comes to the wide receiver position,

681
00:40:00,760 --> 00:40:03,600
Speaker 2: it's much much tougher to be adding guys from the

682
00:40:03,600 --> 00:40:07,120
Speaker 2: waiver wire in season that end up being you know, studs,

683
00:40:07,440 --> 00:40:11,480
Speaker 2: like a top twenty type player. Whereas running back again,

684
00:40:11,520 --> 00:40:15,319
Speaker 2: it's so volatile that it adds risk on drafting guys

685
00:40:15,360 --> 00:40:18,680
Speaker 2: early because they can get hurt, they could lose their job,

686
00:40:19,320 --> 00:40:23,279
Speaker 2: things like that. But you know, all these backups are

687
00:40:23,280 --> 00:40:26,319
Speaker 2: in play where if somebody misses time, another guy could

688
00:40:26,360 --> 00:40:30,000
Speaker 2: step up. A good example is someone like Zach Charbonay.

689
00:40:30,520 --> 00:40:32,320
Speaker 2: I had, you know, my bench in a lot of

690
00:40:32,400 --> 00:40:34,680
Speaker 2: leagues last year where you know, I'm not playing him

691
00:40:34,760 --> 00:40:38,120
Speaker 2: when Kenneth Walker's healthy, but once he misses time, I

692
00:40:38,160 --> 00:40:39,759
Speaker 2: know I have a top ten running back, so I

693
00:40:39,800 --> 00:40:40,640
Speaker 2: could just plug him in.

694
00:40:41,000 --> 00:40:42,919
Speaker 1: You don't really get that with wide receivers.

695
00:40:43,880 --> 00:40:45,920
Speaker 2: You know, if Drake Lennon miss his time, Ray Ray

696
00:40:46,000 --> 00:40:49,120
Speaker 2: McLeod isn't all of a sudden the top twenty wide receiver.

697
00:40:49,320 --> 00:40:53,040
Speaker 2: So it just goes to like most of the time

698
00:40:53,080 --> 00:40:56,239
Speaker 2: there's only one running back on the field, where you

699
00:40:56,280 --> 00:40:59,040
Speaker 2: know they might have two to four, sometimes five wide

700
00:40:59,080 --> 00:41:02,400
Speaker 2: receivers on the It just has to go with opportunity.

701
00:41:03,640 --> 00:41:06,960
Speaker 2: These running backs, you know, they're getting tackled twenty plus

702
00:41:07,000 --> 00:41:09,279
Speaker 2: times a game, so they're getting hit the most, so

703
00:41:09,480 --> 00:41:12,319
Speaker 2: usually the smaller player on the field, so they're more

704
00:41:12,320 --> 00:41:15,239
Speaker 2: prone to injuries. So a lot of different reasons why

705
00:41:15,320 --> 00:41:19,359
Speaker 2: running backs are so volatile and risky taking early on,

706
00:41:19,400 --> 00:41:21,840
Speaker 2: which is why I think I think the public is

707
00:41:22,200 --> 00:41:25,600
Speaker 2: you know, having a better sense of that and gravitating

708
00:41:25,640 --> 00:41:29,400
Speaker 2: more towards the zero RB approach and you know, valuing

709
00:41:29,400 --> 00:41:32,200
Speaker 2: wide receivers a lot more. So it's not really changing

710
00:41:32,239 --> 00:41:35,279
Speaker 2: anything on my end because again you're looking at the

711
00:41:35,280 --> 00:41:37,400
Speaker 2: same thing as me. All these running backs from like

712
00:41:38,239 --> 00:41:42,319
Speaker 2: ten through thirty, I could create a scenario where you

713
00:41:42,360 --> 00:41:44,600
Speaker 2: know they're going to be a disaster for you this year.

714
00:41:44,680 --> 00:41:47,480
Speaker 2: Doesn't mean all of them are gonna, you know, bust,

715
00:41:47,560 --> 00:41:50,400
Speaker 2: but it's just very risky. Whereas you know, when you

716
00:41:50,400 --> 00:41:54,640
Speaker 2: look at receivers, most of these guys for wide receiver

717
00:41:54,800 --> 00:41:57,480
Speaker 2: ten through thirty are all excellent, and I want as

718
00:41:57,480 --> 00:41:59,799
Speaker 2: many of them as possible. So it just has to

719
00:41:59,800 --> 00:42:03,120
Speaker 2: go the nature of the position itself, the game itself,

720
00:42:04,360 --> 00:42:08,359
Speaker 2: and you know, just knowing when you can get these

721
00:42:08,360 --> 00:42:12,680
Speaker 2: certain players. So again I'm still you know, valuing wide

722
00:42:12,719 --> 00:42:15,040
Speaker 2: receiver very highly in the first several rounds of the

723
00:42:15,080 --> 00:42:15,799
Speaker 2: draft because of this.

724
00:42:16,800 --> 00:42:22,319
Speaker 1: Yeah, and it's important to also consider the context of

725
00:42:22,360 --> 00:42:26,280
Speaker 1: this particular your end of every year. Twenty twenty five

726
00:42:27,040 --> 00:42:31,240
Speaker 1: is a year where the zero RB strategy tended to

727
00:42:31,560 --> 00:42:35,239
Speaker 1: fall flat on its face. Yeah, and you know, now

728
00:42:35,280 --> 00:42:38,839
Speaker 1: we have another opportunity to use it. It's if it's

729
00:42:38,880 --> 00:42:45,040
Speaker 1: something where there's no correct strategy, you can win with

730
00:42:45,200 --> 00:42:47,959
Speaker 1: all the different strategies. If you look at the long

731
00:42:48,040 --> 00:42:51,279
Speaker 1: term data every almost every year, there's a way to

732
00:42:51,280 --> 00:42:54,880
Speaker 1: win any which way. But there does tend to be

733
00:42:55,080 --> 00:42:58,880
Speaker 1: a bit of a bias. And so the thing to

734
00:42:58,960 --> 00:43:02,520
Speaker 1: remember is that there are gonna be ways to There're

735
00:43:02,560 --> 00:43:05,799
Speaker 1: gonna be drafts where you might end up not you

736
00:43:05,840 --> 00:43:08,680
Speaker 1: might end up getting running backs early because everyone else

737
00:43:08,760 --> 00:43:11,520
Speaker 1: is thinking that same thing. It's really comes it really

738
00:43:11,520 --> 00:43:14,280
Speaker 1: comes down to the value. And I think when the

739
00:43:14,600 --> 00:43:19,000
Speaker 1: entire board gets sharper, which I think it did, it's

740
00:43:19,040 --> 00:43:23,120
Speaker 1: just gonna put the onus on the individual drafter to

741
00:43:23,160 --> 00:43:27,560
Speaker 1: make sure that they are truly taking advantage of value

742
00:43:27,680 --> 00:43:31,760
Speaker 1: versus adp and not just blindly following a strategy because

743
00:43:31,960 --> 00:43:33,799
Speaker 1: they predicted that it was gonna be the best one

744
00:43:33,840 --> 00:43:36,080
Speaker 1: heading into the draft. You should The key is to

745
00:43:36,160 --> 00:43:38,840
Speaker 1: know how to use every strategy, know what it looks like.

746
00:43:38,880 --> 00:43:43,080
Speaker 1: And that's why we tend to be so comfortable fading

747
00:43:43,600 --> 00:43:47,640
Speaker 1: running backs in the middle rounds because what's gonna happen

748
00:43:47,760 --> 00:43:49,759
Speaker 1: is you don't know which of those guys in the

749
00:43:49,760 --> 00:43:52,440
Speaker 1: frozen pond they're gonna sink to you. I guess you

750
00:43:52,480 --> 00:43:57,080
Speaker 1: could say, but they some of them will, and you

751
00:43:57,200 --> 00:44:00,160
Speaker 1: just buy. You just take the dip on those guys.

752
00:44:00,200 --> 00:44:04,279
Speaker 1: And that's the whole point. How do I leverage the

753
00:44:04,400 --> 00:44:07,440
Speaker 1: value at different pockets in the draft? The answer isn't

754
00:44:07,440 --> 00:44:10,440
Speaker 1: to necessarily always stock pile running backs. Some years it

755
00:44:10,480 --> 00:44:12,880
Speaker 1: will work better than others some point with some players

756
00:44:12,880 --> 00:44:15,719
Speaker 1: in some draft spots that will work better than with others.

757
00:44:15,920 --> 00:44:17,920
Speaker 1: But at the end of the day, you have to

758
00:44:17,920 --> 00:44:20,680
Speaker 1: look at it and say, I might be better off

759
00:44:20,719 --> 00:44:25,359
Speaker 1: treating all these guys interchangeable. And because I see there's

760
00:44:25,400 --> 00:44:29,359
Speaker 1: a lot more difference at wide receiver, at tight end,

761
00:44:30,280 --> 00:44:32,879
Speaker 1: at quarterback, even in terms of guys you can get.

762
00:44:32,960 --> 00:44:37,280
Speaker 1: So it's not necessarily like look at this and say

763
00:44:37,320 --> 00:44:39,719
Speaker 1: I have to draft two running backs early like it's

764
00:44:39,800 --> 00:44:43,040
Speaker 1: nineteen ninety eight again. But also I don't have to be,

765
00:44:43,520 --> 00:44:46,839
Speaker 1: you know, on this zero RB strategy. I just have

766
00:44:46,920 --> 00:44:51,719
Speaker 1: to understand in what scenarios in a draft depending on

767
00:44:52,120 --> 00:44:53,680
Speaker 1: you know, what is it a super flexes is a

768
00:44:53,680 --> 00:44:55,800
Speaker 1: normal one QB league where there's always going to be

769
00:44:55,880 --> 00:45:00,640
Speaker 1: quarterbacks around and tight ends this year too, to understand

770
00:45:00,680 --> 00:45:03,160
Speaker 1: that there's gonna be an arms race at receiver one

771
00:45:03,200 --> 00:45:07,480
Speaker 1: way or another. So I'm usually just like you, I'm

772
00:45:07,520 --> 00:45:10,680
Speaker 1: trying to draft at least as many wide receivers in

773
00:45:10,760 --> 00:45:15,480
Speaker 1: those first sixth rounds as I had flex positions starting

774
00:45:15,560 --> 00:45:18,640
Speaker 1: in my week, and preferably one more than that because

775
00:45:19,360 --> 00:45:22,120
Speaker 1: wide receivers tend to miss about one to two games.

776
00:45:22,200 --> 00:45:24,640
Speaker 1: Last year, it was a little higher for wide receivers,

777
00:45:24,680 --> 00:45:27,400
Speaker 1: which is part of the reason everything went kind of

778
00:45:27,400 --> 00:45:31,120
Speaker 1: haywire and swung across to running backs. So running backs

779
00:45:31,120 --> 00:45:33,960
Speaker 1: are really the only position that is missing. Instead of

780
00:45:34,000 --> 00:45:36,560
Speaker 1: it's you know, one to two, it's for running backs,

781
00:45:36,560 --> 00:45:40,560
Speaker 1: it's usually three to four or more. So that just

782
00:45:40,640 --> 00:45:43,120
Speaker 1: changes the whole mass. But even at receiver, if you're

783
00:45:43,160 --> 00:45:46,280
Speaker 1: starting let's say three in a flex, you're expecting eight

784
00:45:46,760 --> 00:45:49,120
Speaker 1: six to eight games missed plus bye weeks, So you

785
00:45:49,200 --> 00:45:52,560
Speaker 1: tend to you're gonna need to treat the draft, I think,

786
00:45:53,239 --> 00:45:55,279
Speaker 1: and I'm curious as to how you approach the show,

787
00:45:55,320 --> 00:45:59,279
Speaker 1: But I kind of think of it as there's a

788
00:45:59,320 --> 00:46:02,880
Speaker 1: part of the draft when startable players are available, and

789
00:46:02,920 --> 00:46:06,680
Speaker 1: there's a part of the draft where startable players are

790
00:46:06,719 --> 00:46:09,840
Speaker 1: not available any longer, and that just comes down to

791
00:46:09,920 --> 00:46:12,200
Speaker 1: your starting line up side in a lead, but it

792
00:46:12,239 --> 00:46:14,759
Speaker 1: tends to be around the tenth round, so I usually have,

793
00:46:15,239 --> 00:46:18,040
Speaker 1: rather than any kind of specific strategy, you know, I'm

794
00:46:18,040 --> 00:46:19,360
Speaker 1: going to do this in the first round. This is

795
00:46:19,400 --> 00:46:21,799
Speaker 1: the second round. Running back, wide receiver. I'm looking at

796
00:46:21,800 --> 00:46:25,040
Speaker 1: it like I need at least five top forty wide receivers.

797
00:46:25,200 --> 00:46:28,840
Speaker 1: I want at least three top fifty running backs, and

798
00:46:28,880 --> 00:46:32,560
Speaker 1: then depending on what else happens, my quarterback and the

799
00:46:32,560 --> 00:46:34,920
Speaker 1: tight end will kind of fit into that. Usually it

800
00:46:34,920 --> 00:46:37,080
Speaker 1: comes a little toward the later half. But how do

801
00:46:37,120 --> 00:46:41,080
Speaker 1: you kind of approach the different positions in terms of

802
00:46:41,400 --> 00:46:42,920
Speaker 1: is there are there any cutouts for you? Or you

803
00:46:43,320 --> 00:46:45,160
Speaker 1: tend to looking at it tend to be looking at it,

804
00:46:45,200 --> 00:46:47,320
Speaker 1: you know, with the early rounds and then a distinct

805
00:46:47,360 --> 00:46:49,239
Speaker 1: strategy like how are you kind of setting up those

806
00:46:49,280 --> 00:46:53,319
Speaker 1: tiers to work for you as the draft progresses. Yeah,

807
00:46:53,360 --> 00:46:54,520
Speaker 1: that's a great way to put it.

808
00:46:54,560 --> 00:46:58,359
Speaker 2: I definitely think similarly where you know, by this five

809
00:46:58,440 --> 00:47:02,040
Speaker 2: round ten and I want at least five receivers. I

810
00:47:02,040 --> 00:47:05,359
Speaker 2: think it's important to also consider the league setting. Some

811
00:47:05,480 --> 00:47:09,600
Speaker 2: leagues only use two wide receivers versus three when it

812
00:47:09,960 --> 00:47:11,879
Speaker 2: comes to your starting lineup. So in leagues where you're

813
00:47:11,880 --> 00:47:15,759
Speaker 2: only starting two receivers and still just one flex, I'm

814
00:47:15,760 --> 00:47:18,520
Speaker 2: gonna lower that number a bit. Maybe I'll have I'll

815
00:47:18,520 --> 00:47:21,560
Speaker 2: want four wide receivers by round ten, but I think

816
00:47:21,560 --> 00:47:26,040
Speaker 2: it's critical to understand your league specifically. But yeah, in general,

817
00:47:26,719 --> 00:47:28,759
Speaker 2: you know, wide receiver is the one I think is

818
00:47:28,800 --> 00:47:31,760
Speaker 2: the most important to attack early, and like you said,

819
00:47:31,800 --> 00:47:34,000
Speaker 2: just kind of as quarterbacks and tight ends, if they

820
00:47:34,040 --> 00:47:37,960
Speaker 2: fall to me, great, If not, I am more than

821
00:47:38,040 --> 00:47:41,440
Speaker 2: willing to not draft a quarterback or a tight end

822
00:47:41,520 --> 00:47:44,000
Speaker 2: and the top ten if it works out that way,

823
00:47:44,040 --> 00:47:48,879
Speaker 2: because over the past few seasons, you know, I've gone

824
00:47:48,920 --> 00:47:52,080
Speaker 2: into leagues where I don't even have a quarterback and

825
00:47:52,120 --> 00:47:56,360
Speaker 2: I just stream, and you know, you can usually produce

826
00:47:56,760 --> 00:47:59,359
Speaker 2: a top ten quarterback that way, and you might even

827
00:47:59,400 --> 00:48:03,640
Speaker 2: stumble off. You know, someone like Bo Nicks wasn't drafted

828
00:48:03,640 --> 00:48:05,440
Speaker 2: in every league and he ended up being a top

829
00:48:05,520 --> 00:48:08,000
Speaker 2: ten quarterback. I know you were high on Jaden Daniels.

830
00:48:08,120 --> 00:48:10,880
Speaker 2: You could have got him later in the draft. So

831
00:48:11,120 --> 00:48:13,880
Speaker 2: there's just so many guys year after year that you

832
00:48:13,880 --> 00:48:17,480
Speaker 2: could end up stumbling on, even if you punt. Quarterback

833
00:48:17,600 --> 00:48:20,919
Speaker 2: or tight end. Tight end specifically has had a ton

834
00:48:20,960 --> 00:48:22,880
Speaker 2: of league winners that you can get later on. So

835
00:48:23,880 --> 00:48:26,880
Speaker 2: I'm usually not, you know, worried if I don't have

836
00:48:26,960 --> 00:48:30,000
Speaker 2: a quarterback or tight end. I say round ten, and then,

837
00:48:30,040 --> 00:48:33,840
Speaker 2: like you said, I'm stuck piling my bench typically with

838
00:48:33,880 --> 00:48:36,160
Speaker 2: backup running backs. Running backs I think that have a

839
00:48:36,200 --> 00:48:38,920
Speaker 2: ton of upside if the starting running back were to

840
00:48:39,000 --> 00:48:42,920
Speaker 2: go down. So you're right after you get to you know,

841
00:48:43,000 --> 00:48:45,560
Speaker 2: round ten, you're you're gonna be drafting guys that might

842
00:48:45,600 --> 00:48:48,200
Speaker 2: not be startable right away, and I think that's that's

843
00:48:48,239 --> 00:48:51,640
Speaker 2: when it makes sense to reload up with backup running backs.

844
00:48:51,640 --> 00:48:53,560
Speaker 2: And one thing to point, I think you touch on

845
00:48:53,600 --> 00:48:57,600
Speaker 2: it briefly, but just last year, running back position overall

846
00:48:58,120 --> 00:49:00,279
Speaker 2: was very healthy. I think it was only the Christ

847
00:49:00,440 --> 00:49:04,440
Speaker 2: McCaffrey that missed more than like three games. That was

848
00:49:04,480 --> 00:49:07,080
Speaker 2: the running back that was drafted you know early on.

849
00:49:07,320 --> 00:49:10,560
Speaker 2: So last year, all these a lot of these backs

850
00:49:10,560 --> 00:49:14,640
Speaker 2: played all seventeen games, which is not common. Typically backs

851
00:49:15,080 --> 00:49:18,440
Speaker 2: missed two to three games on average. And you know,

852
00:49:18,520 --> 00:49:22,120
Speaker 2: oftentimes we have a handful of running backs missed you know,

853
00:49:22,400 --> 00:49:24,759
Speaker 2: several games. So last year we just didn't see that.

854
00:49:24,800 --> 00:49:27,359
Speaker 2: So a lot of these backup running backs didn't hit

855
00:49:27,440 --> 00:49:31,799
Speaker 2: because of that. So I think people might you know,

856
00:49:31,920 --> 00:49:35,160
Speaker 2: look into that a little bit too much from last year.

857
00:49:35,160 --> 00:49:37,080
Speaker 2: But at the end of the day, the running back

858
00:49:37,120 --> 00:49:40,560
Speaker 2: position is very volatile, and you can you can land

859
00:49:41,560 --> 00:49:44,799
Speaker 2: guys you know outside around ten that hit. So at

860
00:49:44,800 --> 00:49:47,560
Speaker 2: the end of the day, you know, the first several rounds,

861
00:49:47,600 --> 00:49:51,359
Speaker 2: I'm loading up at receiver and running backs that fall

862
00:49:51,440 --> 00:49:54,680
Speaker 2: to me or quarterback, tight end when it when it

863
00:49:54,719 --> 00:49:58,440
Speaker 2: makes sense. So that's kind of my general approach. But

864
00:49:58,480 --> 00:50:00,480
Speaker 2: then you know, when you're in the draft to just

865
00:50:00,600 --> 00:50:02,680
Speaker 2: but overall, that's that's my plan heading in.

866
00:50:03,600 --> 00:50:05,560
Speaker 1: Yeah, and it's I think you hit on a key

867
00:50:05,600 --> 00:50:10,000
Speaker 1: point late just now when you said tight end quarterback

868
00:50:10,040 --> 00:50:14,160
Speaker 1: when it makes sense, and it's so true because there's

869
00:50:14,200 --> 00:50:19,840
Speaker 1: a fragility to quarterback and tight end rankings because and

870
00:50:20,000 --> 00:50:24,200
Speaker 1: and ADP because if you look at this year, for example,

871
00:50:25,480 --> 00:50:29,800
Speaker 1: there's only about what eight to ten of them going

872
00:50:29,880 --> 00:50:34,480
Speaker 1: in the first h five rounds five six rounds combined.

873
00:50:34,840 --> 00:50:37,560
Speaker 1: There's just not many quarterbacks and tight ends going. So

874
00:50:39,080 --> 00:50:41,120
Speaker 1: if a guy goes around earlier, or a couple of

875
00:50:41,160 --> 00:50:43,959
Speaker 1: guys go around earlier, and somebody else goes around later,

876
00:50:44,000 --> 00:50:46,399
Speaker 1: I mean, it's just it can be. It can lead

877
00:50:46,440 --> 00:50:52,080
Speaker 1: to wild swings in terms of value, and it's something

878
00:50:52,120 --> 00:50:56,359
Speaker 1: to consider a lot more. I think when you're in

879
00:50:56,520 --> 00:50:59,120
Speaker 1: high stakes leagues, leagues where you have to be not

880
00:50:59,239 --> 00:51:02,880
Speaker 1: just maybe twelve like eleven other people you know of

881
00:51:02,960 --> 00:51:05,960
Speaker 1: your friends, but you got to be an entire industry

882
00:51:05,960 --> 00:51:08,160
Speaker 1: experts or something like that, that's where you really want

883
00:51:08,200 --> 00:51:11,320
Speaker 1: to take those bigger risk. And I say risk because

884
00:51:11,360 --> 00:51:13,920
Speaker 1: not that I think Rock Bauers is catching you know,

885
00:51:14,640 --> 00:51:17,440
Speaker 1: less than ninety balls if he's healthy. But what I

886
00:51:17,480 --> 00:51:20,480
Speaker 1: mean is there's just so much risk because there's so

887
00:51:20,520 --> 00:51:24,160
Speaker 1: many other wide receivers there and running backs that people

888
00:51:24,200 --> 00:51:27,160
Speaker 1: are fading that are also valuable. So it's really about

889
00:51:27,239 --> 00:51:32,479
Speaker 1: the kind of prioritization of wide receiver, then running back,

890
00:51:33,040 --> 00:51:37,759
Speaker 1: then tight end, and then quarterback, because even bad quarterbacks

891
00:51:38,000 --> 00:51:42,080
Speaker 1: are gonna there's there's just less of a drop off

892
00:51:42,640 --> 00:51:45,200
Speaker 1: versus a bad tight end could give you nothing. So

893
00:51:46,480 --> 00:51:49,839
Speaker 1: I think it's important to you know what, because now

894
00:51:49,920 --> 00:51:52,719
Speaker 1: I think the thing the new trend, and I'm glad

895
00:51:52,760 --> 00:51:55,440
Speaker 1: it's here, is there's a lot more super flex with

896
00:51:55,880 --> 00:51:59,120
Speaker 1: quarterbacks eligible, and there's a lot more two QB leagues.

897
00:51:59,640 --> 00:52:02,160
Speaker 1: But there's also just a lot more people willing to

898
00:52:02,760 --> 00:52:06,360
Speaker 1: wait to draft a quarterback. So talk to me a

899
00:52:06,360 --> 00:52:12,080
Speaker 1: little bit more, just like how you evaluate quarterbacks, because

900
00:52:13,040 --> 00:52:15,719
Speaker 1: I think rushing upside is starting to come into it,

901
00:52:16,160 --> 00:52:18,279
Speaker 1: or it's always come into it, but it tends to

902
00:52:18,320 --> 00:52:22,000
Speaker 1: be something that is just it's almost like a cheat

903
00:52:22,000 --> 00:52:24,600
Speaker 1: code this day and age, even though people are onto it.

904
00:52:25,480 --> 00:52:29,759
Speaker 2: Yeah, absolutely, rushing upside has been key. You and I

905
00:52:29,800 --> 00:52:32,520
Speaker 2: have been harping on it for years now. That's how

906
00:52:32,520 --> 00:52:36,000
Speaker 2: we ended up with Jalen Hurts as a rookie several

907
00:52:36,120 --> 00:52:38,600
Speaker 2: years ago. That's how you ended up on Jayden Daniels

908
00:52:38,680 --> 00:52:41,320
Speaker 2: last year. I think you know, rushing upside is the

909
00:52:41,400 --> 00:52:44,520
Speaker 2: cheat code. It's why someone like Justin Fields might not

910
00:52:44,560 --> 00:52:47,320
Speaker 2: be a great real life quarterback, but when he's playing,

911
00:52:47,800 --> 00:52:50,719
Speaker 2: he could put up top twelve numbers because of his

912
00:52:50,800 --> 00:52:54,920
Speaker 2: rushing upside. So it's absolutely critical. I think I would

913
00:52:54,920 --> 00:52:58,400
Speaker 2: say that for like one QB leagues, especially because we're

914
00:52:58,400 --> 00:53:03,200
Speaker 2: shooting for upside. Now you mentioned super flex two QB leagues.

915
00:53:03,520 --> 00:53:08,359
Speaker 2: That's a completely different strategy. That's when you're drafting quarterbacks

916
00:53:08,440 --> 00:53:13,520
Speaker 2: earlier and often because there's at any given time there's

917
00:53:13,560 --> 00:53:16,799
Speaker 2: only thirty two starting quarterbacks, so if they're start, if

918
00:53:16,880 --> 00:53:21,640
Speaker 2: you're starting twenty four of them across the league a week,

919
00:53:22,480 --> 00:53:24,960
Speaker 2: the supply is not there to everyone just sit there

920
00:53:24,960 --> 00:53:27,920
Speaker 2: and wait for quarterbacks. So in two QB super flex leagues,

921
00:53:28,280 --> 00:53:31,920
Speaker 2: they go much much faster, or they go much earlier

922
00:53:32,320 --> 00:53:37,200
Speaker 2: because there's higher demand. Now in those leagues, you know

923
00:53:37,280 --> 00:53:42,360
Speaker 2: the Sam Donald's, the you know Jordan loves c. J.

924
00:53:42,520 --> 00:53:45,560
Speaker 1: Stroud, guys that you know go outside the top twelve.

925
00:53:45,600 --> 00:53:48,480
Speaker 2: I think those guys are more valuable because you know

926
00:53:48,480 --> 00:53:50,960
Speaker 2: they're going to provide you a higher floor, which is

927
00:53:51,000 --> 00:53:55,000
Speaker 2: important in two QB leagues. So you know, my the

928
00:53:55,040 --> 00:53:58,600
Speaker 2: way I evaluate quarterbacks and draft them changes significantly.

929
00:53:58,680 --> 00:54:02,840
Speaker 1: Whether you're starting one quarter back or two in the league.

930
00:54:02,920 --> 00:54:05,560
Speaker 2: But yeah, when it comes to fantasy upside, I think

931
00:54:06,360 --> 00:54:10,080
Speaker 2: this day and age, rushing is key because it gives

932
00:54:10,200 --> 00:54:13,280
Speaker 2: it gives a quarterback a higher floor and ceiling weekly

933
00:54:13,680 --> 00:54:16,280
Speaker 2: which is a hidden way to you know, really dominate

934
00:54:16,280 --> 00:54:18,480
Speaker 2: your league as having one of those. But you know,

935
00:54:18,520 --> 00:54:21,960
Speaker 2: there's a lot more of them these days, So it's

936
00:54:22,040 --> 00:54:23,960
Speaker 2: you know, we have more of these guys coming in

937
00:54:24,040 --> 00:54:28,200
Speaker 2: like jayde Daniels. Now Caleb Williams does have some rushing upside.

938
00:54:28,239 --> 00:54:30,120
Speaker 2: Maybe we'll see more of that this year, Drake May.

939
00:54:30,880 --> 00:54:34,080
Speaker 2: So there's a lot more guys with rushing upside in today's.

940
00:54:33,960 --> 00:54:34,520
Speaker 1: Day and age.

941
00:54:34,560 --> 00:54:36,480
Speaker 2: But yeah, at the end of the day, I think

942
00:54:36,520 --> 00:54:38,839
Speaker 2: that's that's one of the the secrets I think when

943
00:54:38,840 --> 00:54:41,319
Speaker 2: it comes to, you know, sleeper picks in late round

944
00:54:41,360 --> 00:54:44,319
Speaker 2: quarterbacks is if they do have that rushing upside, they

945
00:54:44,360 --> 00:54:45,080
Speaker 2: can really pop.

946
00:54:46,560 --> 00:54:50,480
Speaker 1: Yeah, and with that they're just I would say that's

947
00:54:50,600 --> 00:54:56,200
Speaker 1: one of those situations when you start talking about these

948
00:54:56,800 --> 00:55:01,440
Speaker 1: like weeks that straight from the norm, like people aren't

949
00:55:01,920 --> 00:55:06,920
Speaker 1: necessarily going to be even even an expert like you

950
00:55:07,000 --> 00:55:09,120
Speaker 1: and I aren't playing as many of those weeks as

951
00:55:09,120 --> 00:55:11,920
Speaker 1: we play traditionally or as we play, you know, certain

952
00:55:11,960 --> 00:55:15,799
Speaker 1: other weeks. So just remember that there's always going to

953
00:55:15,880 --> 00:55:19,600
Speaker 1: be a little bit more dissonance in these situations. And

954
00:55:19,719 --> 00:55:22,680
Speaker 1: but that's that means there's more to exploit fundamentally if

955
00:55:22,719 --> 00:55:25,800
Speaker 1: you kind of understand that, you can get in it.

956
00:55:26,000 --> 00:55:29,560
Speaker 1: So like, for example, if if you're at the wrong

957
00:55:29,640 --> 00:55:33,200
Speaker 1: end of a positional run at quarterback in a two

958
00:55:33,239 --> 00:55:35,919
Speaker 1: QB or a flex league. First of all, it makes

959
00:55:35,920 --> 00:55:37,520
Speaker 1: a big difference whether it is you know, it is

960
00:55:37,560 --> 00:55:39,640
Speaker 1: just a two QB or it's a two QB plus, like,

961
00:55:39,680 --> 00:55:41,920
Speaker 1: there's a lot of just that can change a lot.

962
00:55:42,000 --> 00:55:45,080
Speaker 1: But one of the things you have to consider is, Okay,

963
00:55:45,440 --> 00:55:50,640
Speaker 1: there's always going to be four teams that essentially miss

964
00:55:50,680 --> 00:55:53,719
Speaker 1: out on a week one starter, and you have to

965
00:55:53,800 --> 00:55:57,319
Speaker 1: kind of say, how do I win if I'm one

966
00:55:57,320 --> 00:56:00,799
Speaker 1: of those fourteens. That's that's a thirty three chance that

967
00:56:01,239 --> 00:56:03,680
Speaker 1: there's gonna regardless if everyone wants to have an arms race,

968
00:56:03,719 --> 00:56:05,719
Speaker 1: there's only so many of them, right, So you have

969
00:56:05,800 --> 00:56:09,880
Speaker 1: to think about things like, well, I can let people

970
00:56:09,880 --> 00:56:13,399
Speaker 1: go and run and just uh treat it like a

971
00:56:13,560 --> 00:56:16,680
Speaker 1: two QB league in the sense of, okay, I'm only

972
00:56:16,760 --> 00:56:19,040
Speaker 1: losing the bye week. Really if I if I end

973
00:56:19,080 --> 00:56:22,560
Speaker 1: up with uh say, Anthony Richardson and Daniel Jones or something,

974
00:56:22,600 --> 00:56:24,759
Speaker 1: you have to kind of think outside the box and

975
00:56:24,880 --> 00:56:28,359
Speaker 1: see what you're gonna conceide, just like real football, where uh,

976
00:56:28,480 --> 00:56:31,200
Speaker 1: every defense is trying to take away something. Every offense

977
00:56:31,320 --> 00:56:33,960
Speaker 1: is you know, they're aim they're gonna dictate terms and

978
00:56:34,040 --> 00:56:36,319
Speaker 1: the defense the best they could do, you know is

979
00:56:36,440 --> 00:56:39,279
Speaker 1: preplay is kind of decide that they want to take

980
00:56:39,320 --> 00:56:43,560
Speaker 1: away and go from there. So, uh, it really requires

981
00:56:44,840 --> 00:56:48,400
Speaker 1: a lot of you know, not just not just following

982
00:56:48,440 --> 00:56:53,760
Speaker 1: these general uh general rules of thumb, but really looking

983
00:56:53,800 --> 00:56:56,880
Speaker 1: into it and and and looking at you know, the

984
00:56:56,920 --> 00:56:59,640
Speaker 1: player value and okay, like who do we have if

985
00:56:59,640 --> 00:57:01,920
Speaker 1: you add the two guys up in our projections and

986
00:57:02,040 --> 00:57:04,439
Speaker 1: with your weeksgoing, who would you you know, what what

987
00:57:04,640 --> 00:57:07,920
Speaker 1: combination would be better with the ceiling change versus the

988
00:57:08,000 --> 00:57:12,680
Speaker 1: floor and whatnot. There's a lot to it. But you know,

989
00:57:12,719 --> 00:57:16,600
Speaker 1: we started talking about quarterbacks rushing upside for them, and

990
00:57:17,120 --> 00:57:19,520
Speaker 1: one of my favorite things during the season to talk

991
00:57:19,520 --> 00:57:23,320
Speaker 1: to you about is the pass catchers because you and

992
00:57:23,360 --> 00:57:27,200
Speaker 1: I both are really big on looking at very specific

993
00:57:27,640 --> 00:57:31,400
Speaker 1: metrics when it comes to pass catchers and to some

994
00:57:31,440 --> 00:57:34,200
Speaker 1: people they might be simpler. Then you think to some

995
00:57:34,240 --> 00:57:37,880
Speaker 1: people it's more it's it's complex, or you know, maybe

996
00:57:37,920 --> 00:57:39,640
Speaker 1: it's not the hype ones. But talk to me a

997
00:57:39,640 --> 00:57:44,360
Speaker 1: little bit about how you're evaluating, especially wide receivers but

998
00:57:44,480 --> 00:57:47,360
Speaker 1: in general pass catchers. You know, we're starting at the

999
00:57:47,440 --> 00:57:48,000
Speaker 1: route level.

1000
00:57:49,200 --> 00:57:53,560
Speaker 2: Yeah, so let's talk about say wide receivers. You know,

1001
00:57:53,680 --> 00:57:55,760
Speaker 2: first you want to see how often they're on the

1002
00:57:55,800 --> 00:57:58,600
Speaker 2: field running a route. So we always talk about that

1003
00:57:58,680 --> 00:58:02,680
Speaker 2: routes run rate as the percentage of dropbacks the quarterbacks

1004
00:58:02,680 --> 00:58:05,440
Speaker 2: taking where that that player is running a route. So

1005
00:58:05,560 --> 00:58:08,600
Speaker 2: that's going to dictate if that if that player runs

1006
00:58:08,600 --> 00:58:10,400
Speaker 2: around over ninety percent of the time, they're going to

1007
00:58:10,440 --> 00:58:13,640
Speaker 2: be more consistent. There's usually they're usually a stud in

1008
00:58:13,680 --> 00:58:15,760
Speaker 2: that case, you know they're a full time starter, but

1009
00:58:15,800 --> 00:58:19,680
Speaker 2: they're going to be more consistent. Whereas someone like Jaden Reid,

1010
00:58:19,760 --> 00:58:22,360
Speaker 2: he is, you know, a good wide receiver, starting wide receiver,

1011
00:58:22,440 --> 00:58:24,760
Speaker 2: but he's not on the field all the time, so

1012
00:58:24,880 --> 00:58:28,000
Speaker 2: he's going to be more dependent on game script that

1013
00:58:28,160 --> 00:58:32,160
Speaker 2: type of thing, so he might feel less consistent. And

1014
00:58:32,320 --> 00:58:35,360
Speaker 2: the other thing is how far down the field are

1015
00:58:35,360 --> 00:58:39,160
Speaker 2: they getting their targets, So that's their a dot their

1016
00:58:39,200 --> 00:58:43,320
Speaker 2: average depth of target. So if that's between you know,

1017
00:58:43,480 --> 00:58:46,400
Speaker 2: zero and ten yards closer line scrimmage, they're going to

1018
00:58:46,440 --> 00:58:50,000
Speaker 2: be more consistent because they're getting you know, higher percentage throws,

1019
00:58:50,040 --> 00:58:53,880
Speaker 2: whereas if somebody's getting targets downfield where they're you know,

1020
00:58:53,880 --> 00:58:57,400
Speaker 2: they're a dots over fifteen yards, they're a downfield threat,

1021
00:58:57,440 --> 00:59:01,920
Speaker 2: so they're they're getting lower percentage targets downfield where you

1022
00:59:01,960 --> 00:59:03,920
Speaker 2: know they're going to catch less balls, and when they do,

1023
00:59:04,600 --> 00:59:07,440
Speaker 2: it's an explosive play. So those those players to me

1024
00:59:08,120 --> 00:59:11,600
Speaker 2: are going to be you know, lower floor, higher ceiling,

1025
00:59:11,600 --> 00:59:15,280
Speaker 2: They're going to be vulnerable week to week where you

1026
00:59:15,320 --> 00:59:18,040
Speaker 2: know there's more risk to that. They're a higher risk,

1027
00:59:18,200 --> 00:59:20,680
Speaker 2: higher reward type player. So you got to know that

1028
00:59:20,760 --> 00:59:23,080
Speaker 2: you're drafting that type of player if you are drafting

1029
00:59:23,120 --> 00:59:26,360
Speaker 2: them versus somebody else, like a Keenan Allen type. Just

1030
00:59:26,480 --> 00:59:30,880
Speaker 2: always consistently getting you know, catches and yards. More stable

1031
00:59:30,920 --> 00:59:34,320
Speaker 2: guy and knowing when to take those those players. And

1032
00:59:34,360 --> 00:59:37,400
Speaker 2: we've kind of hit on that where you know, earlier

1033
00:59:37,400 --> 00:59:40,760
Speaker 2: in the draft, I'm looking for more stability, whereas late

1034
00:59:41,080 --> 00:59:43,360
Speaker 2: I'm looking for more boombust, you know.

1035
00:59:43,440 --> 00:59:44,480
Speaker 1: High upside guys.

1036
00:59:44,520 --> 00:59:47,080
Speaker 2: So just those are the things that you know, I

1037
00:59:47,200 --> 00:59:50,640
Speaker 2: recognize when I'm projecting a player when it comes to

1038
00:59:50,640 --> 00:59:52,960
Speaker 2: the underlying data, is you know, how often on their

1039
00:59:53,000 --> 00:59:55,560
Speaker 2: feel and what type of targets are they getting.

1040
00:59:57,280 --> 01:00:00,520
Speaker 1: Yeah, that's that's a really great way to break it

1041
01:00:00,600 --> 01:00:05,080
Speaker 1: down because it goes back to how we started off

1042
01:00:05,120 --> 01:00:08,720
Speaker 1: talking about quarterbacks and what tends to differentiate the ones

1043
01:00:08,760 --> 01:00:12,560
Speaker 1: that hit for the most part is rushing upside. And

1044
01:00:13,000 --> 01:00:18,479
Speaker 1: that is because if you're projecting a quarterback in terms

1045
01:00:18,480 --> 01:00:21,160
Speaker 1: of his passing numbers, what you start to learn pretty

1046
01:00:21,200 --> 01:00:24,000
Speaker 1: quickly when you test out different when he back test

1047
01:00:24,120 --> 01:00:29,920
Speaker 1: different models, is that everything's very correlated to each other

1048
01:00:30,000 --> 01:00:32,880
Speaker 1: with past with passing. And what I mean by that is,

1049
01:00:34,320 --> 01:00:38,160
Speaker 1: if you have a quarterback who is very efficient, but

1050
01:00:38,240 --> 01:00:41,120
Speaker 1: you expect him to throw less, he's usually throwing less

1051
01:00:41,480 --> 01:00:43,520
Speaker 1: because he was able to be even more efficient and

1052
01:00:43,560 --> 01:00:46,280
Speaker 1: get the same amount of yardage on less throws because

1053
01:00:46,320 --> 01:00:48,960
Speaker 1: maybe his team's better, maybe the schedule is easier, and whatnot.

1054
01:00:49,040 --> 01:00:52,880
Speaker 1: So there's a lot of kind of correlation that cancels

1055
01:00:52,880 --> 01:00:55,240
Speaker 1: itself out and that it's the same thing with there

1056
01:00:55,280 --> 01:00:57,720
Speaker 1: is some there's some noise there with wide received with

1057
01:00:57,880 --> 01:01:00,960
Speaker 1: pass catchers, in general where you just be you know,

1058
01:01:01,000 --> 01:01:04,080
Speaker 1: if you get a lower rate of targets per route,

1059
01:01:04,360 --> 01:01:06,960
Speaker 1: it's not inherently a bad thing. You would expect guys

1060
01:01:07,000 --> 01:01:09,400
Speaker 1: who go down the field more and get more high

1061
01:01:09,480 --> 01:01:14,200
Speaker 1: value yardage to be targeted less, and they they you know,

1062
01:01:14,280 --> 01:01:17,440
Speaker 1: there's what what you tend to see more as a

1063
01:01:17,480 --> 01:01:21,640
Speaker 1: catch rate also decreases. But a lot of times that

1064
01:01:21,800 --> 01:01:24,600
Speaker 1: just comes down to the quarterback accuracy. So a quarterback

1065
01:01:24,640 --> 01:01:27,480
Speaker 1: that's inaccurate tends to be more inaccurate the more he

1066
01:01:27,520 --> 01:01:30,400
Speaker 1: goes downfield. So, uh, there's a lot there's a there's

1067
01:01:30,560 --> 01:01:34,800
Speaker 1: noise in past catcher data, and that's why it is

1068
01:01:35,480 --> 01:01:38,120
Speaker 1: very important, I think to kind of break it down

1069
01:01:38,120 --> 01:01:41,120
Speaker 1: into its components, and targets per route is a very

1070
01:01:41,160 --> 01:01:45,000
Speaker 1: sticky stop stat. And then for in terms of routes,

1071
01:01:45,320 --> 01:01:48,240
Speaker 1: you know, run per drop at that route rate, it's

1072
01:01:48,360 --> 01:01:52,720
Speaker 1: very it's it's it's very predictable on a team level

1073
01:01:53,120 --> 01:01:55,240
Speaker 1: when you know the player's role and for a lot

1074
01:01:55,280 --> 01:01:57,160
Speaker 1: of the guys that are going to be Fantasy relevant,

1075
01:01:57,360 --> 01:02:00,560
Speaker 1: we have a pretty good idea of the range of outcomes.

1076
01:02:00,600 --> 01:02:03,800
Speaker 1: And so for example, the average wide receiver one will

1077
01:02:03,880 --> 01:02:06,520
Speaker 1: kind of be around ninety percent, The number two receiver

1078
01:02:06,520 --> 01:02:08,720
Speaker 1: will be about eight somewhere, you know, eight to ninety

1079
01:02:08,720 --> 01:02:10,959
Speaker 1: percent in terms of his routes run rate. The number

1080
01:02:10,960 --> 01:02:13,120
Speaker 1: three guy will be in that fifty to seventy range,

1081
01:02:13,360 --> 01:02:15,280
Speaker 1: and so on and so forth. The other guys will

1082
01:02:15,320 --> 01:02:18,040
Speaker 1: be below, you know, kind of just rounding it out.

1083
01:02:18,320 --> 01:02:20,760
Speaker 1: They usually have about two point seven the average team

1084
01:02:20,800 --> 01:02:23,840
Speaker 1: two point seven wide receiver routes per drop back, and

1085
01:02:23,840 --> 01:02:26,479
Speaker 1: then running backs usually is one. So it's just how

1086
01:02:26,560 --> 01:02:30,479
Speaker 1: often is a back could be out there? Third down

1087
01:02:31,160 --> 01:02:33,280
Speaker 1: snap don't really matter as much. But yeahag running BA

1088
01:02:33,320 --> 01:02:37,320
Speaker 1: usually we'll take about about the sixty seventy percent of

1089
01:02:37,360 --> 01:02:42,280
Speaker 1: his team's backfield non quarterback design runs, and it'll be

1090
01:02:42,280 --> 01:02:44,040
Speaker 1: out there about half the time on routes because they'll

1091
01:02:44,040 --> 01:02:46,240
Speaker 1: block about twenty percent at the time, and so you

1092
01:02:46,320 --> 01:02:48,800
Speaker 1: kind of know these rates tight ends the kind of

1093
01:02:48,880 --> 01:02:51,040
Speaker 1: similar to running backs in the blocking rate, unless they're

1094
01:02:51,080 --> 01:02:54,320
Speaker 1: just the glorified slot guy. But these all these things

1095
01:02:54,400 --> 01:02:57,120
Speaker 1: are predictable, and then that's how you kind of get

1096
01:02:57,800 --> 01:03:02,520
Speaker 1: your your passing projections. Whereas when we talk about running backs,

1097
01:03:03,360 --> 01:03:07,680
Speaker 1: I'm curious, is you know, how do you evaluate running

1098
01:03:07,680 --> 01:03:10,160
Speaker 1: back given that at one point there was it was

1099
01:03:10,200 --> 01:03:13,920
Speaker 1: just okay, volume is more important than efficiency, but now

1100
01:03:14,200 --> 01:03:16,440
Speaker 1: every running backs volume has kind of gotten down, so

1101
01:03:16,720 --> 01:03:19,479
Speaker 1: efficiency is clearly important, just as Saquon Barkley and Derrick

1102
01:03:19,520 --> 01:03:23,040
Speaker 1: Henry Drafters last year. Right, So how do you just

1103
01:03:23,360 --> 01:03:24,720
Speaker 1: how do you kind of look at the running back

1104
01:03:24,720 --> 01:03:27,720
Speaker 1: position in terms of an evaluation of what goes into it?

1105
01:03:28,280 --> 01:03:34,920
Speaker 2: Yeah, so running back, we have a lot of running

1106
01:03:34,960 --> 01:03:39,280
Speaker 2: back by committees where you know, some running backs get

1107
01:03:39,280 --> 01:03:43,680
Speaker 2: more work on say early downs, goal line work, whereas

1108
01:03:43,680 --> 01:03:46,760
Speaker 2: other running backs might see more work in the passing games.

1109
01:03:46,760 --> 01:03:50,200
Speaker 2: So I kind of project running backs and buckets like that,

1110
01:03:50,240 --> 01:03:52,520
Speaker 2: but I think more importantly when it comes to running backs,

1111
01:03:53,880 --> 01:03:57,760
Speaker 2: I do my big running Back upside piece where I

1112
01:03:58,160 --> 01:04:02,720
Speaker 2: project at least into week one, you know, the expected

1113
01:04:02,800 --> 01:04:08,360
Speaker 2: touches for each running back when everyone's healthy, and then

1114
01:04:08,600 --> 01:04:11,760
Speaker 2: how that might shift if anyone of the running backs,

1115
01:04:11,760 --> 01:04:16,280
Speaker 2: whether it's a starter or the backup, miss time, because

1116
01:04:16,320 --> 01:04:19,720
Speaker 2: I think that's important to kind of gauge that's, you know,

1117
01:04:19,800 --> 01:04:23,680
Speaker 2: their their ceiling is a scenario where they're they're teammate

1118
01:04:23,720 --> 01:04:26,480
Speaker 2: that they're sharing this work with misses time, and how

1119
01:04:26,560 --> 01:04:29,320
Speaker 2: much of more of the pie do they pick up?

1120
01:04:30,240 --> 01:04:33,240
Speaker 2: So I look at it like a three dimensional lens

1121
01:04:33,240 --> 01:04:35,880
Speaker 2: in that way of you know, who's getting what when

1122
01:04:35,920 --> 01:04:38,560
Speaker 2: everyone's healthy, and then what happens when somebody gets hurt.

1123
01:04:39,120 --> 01:04:42,480
Speaker 2: So again it's it's different levels. It's you know, the

1124
01:04:42,600 --> 01:04:46,080
Speaker 2: running the ball between the twenties around the goal line

1125
01:04:46,200 --> 01:04:49,560
Speaker 2: and pass catching work, and and that's really kind of

1126
01:04:49,600 --> 01:04:53,920
Speaker 2: how all these running backs sort out. So yeah, that's

1127
01:04:53,920 --> 01:04:57,720
Speaker 2: why running back it's it's very tricky to project because

1128
01:04:57,720 --> 01:04:59,200
Speaker 2: there's a lot of moving pieces and at the end

1129
01:04:59,240 --> 01:05:03,960
Speaker 2: of the day, their end of season value can depend

1130
01:05:04,000 --> 01:05:07,640
Speaker 2: on some luck. It's it's if their teammate was healthy

1131
01:05:07,680 --> 01:05:10,360
Speaker 2: all season or not. You know, a lot of that

1132
01:05:10,400 --> 01:05:12,480
Speaker 2: comes into play. So that's that's a lot of what

1133
01:05:12,480 --> 01:05:15,240
Speaker 2: I'm looking at is you know, projecting everybody healthy and

1134
01:05:15,280 --> 01:05:18,120
Speaker 2: then when they're hurt and then kind of gauging everyone's

1135
01:05:18,240 --> 01:05:20,080
Speaker 2: upside from there.

1136
01:05:21,600 --> 01:05:25,479
Speaker 1: Exactly. Because the average running back is I'm gonna average

1137
01:05:25,520 --> 01:05:27,760
Speaker 1: about four and a half yards of carriage, So you're

1138
01:05:27,760 --> 01:05:31,200
Speaker 1: talking about, Okay, the best guys in the league are

1139
01:05:31,200 --> 01:05:33,040
Speaker 1: gonna get you like five, and the worst are gonna

1140
01:05:33,040 --> 01:05:35,280
Speaker 1: still get you at four. Now, I know there's more

1141
01:05:35,400 --> 01:05:38,240
Speaker 1: variance to that, but that that simplifies it a bit,

1142
01:05:38,280 --> 01:05:41,240
Speaker 1: and even per target, running backs are getting much more

1143
01:05:41,280 --> 01:05:45,600
Speaker 1: than that throughout, I think six per target, so there's

1144
01:05:45,640 --> 01:05:48,240
Speaker 1: a lot more to be gained by, and this is

1145
01:05:48,280 --> 01:05:51,360
Speaker 1: something key another one of those edges that we talked

1146
01:05:51,360 --> 01:05:53,400
Speaker 1: about off the top. There's a lot of different ways

1147
01:05:53,440 --> 01:05:56,200
Speaker 1: to get edges. Part of it is being accurate with

1148
01:05:56,240 --> 01:06:01,080
Speaker 1: your prognostications and rankings and projections, but there's so many

1149
01:06:01,120 --> 01:06:06,000
Speaker 1: other things that go into that that maybe it's just

1150
01:06:06,080 --> 01:06:09,080
Speaker 1: harder to be good at and so the more of

1151
01:06:09,120 --> 01:06:10,520
Speaker 1: an edge you can have on it, the better. And

1152
01:06:10,560 --> 01:06:12,240
Speaker 1: I think one of the big things for me has

1153
01:06:12,320 --> 01:06:17,040
Speaker 1: been understanding the organizational philosophy of a team of the coaches,

1154
01:06:17,320 --> 01:06:20,040
Speaker 1: because a lot of times, especially with running backs, there's

1155
01:06:20,040 --> 01:06:23,480
Speaker 1: a lot out of their control. But what's in somebody's

1156
01:06:23,480 --> 01:06:26,360
Speaker 1: control is what role they plays your point, are they

1157
01:06:26,360 --> 01:06:29,480
Speaker 1: gonna play only early downs? Are they trusted in past protection?

1158
01:06:29,880 --> 01:06:33,240
Speaker 1: Do they have to play pass protection just because someone

1159
01:06:33,240 --> 01:06:36,560
Speaker 1: else can't. So like Karen Williams, you know, he was

1160
01:06:36,600 --> 01:06:38,520
Speaker 1: out there almost all the time, but he didn't catch

1161
01:06:38,640 --> 01:06:42,720
Speaker 1: many balls because he ended up having to protect because

1162
01:06:42,760 --> 01:06:44,720
Speaker 1: they didn't really want core him to do it, so

1163
01:06:44,760 --> 01:06:47,120
Speaker 1: they gave him his touches early. It's like if you

1164
01:06:47,160 --> 01:06:50,200
Speaker 1: watch basketball, a knick situation where you got to get

1165
01:06:50,240 --> 01:06:53,440
Speaker 1: Mitch Robb his minutes in the third quarter because in

1166
01:06:53,480 --> 01:06:57,000
Speaker 1: the fourth he's just a complete liability. So there's certain

1167
01:06:57,040 --> 01:07:00,480
Speaker 1: situations where a running back could actually get hurt from

1168
01:07:00,480 --> 01:07:03,520
Speaker 1: his backup being bad at something. And that's that's why

1169
01:07:03,520 --> 01:07:05,600
Speaker 1: you tend to find third down work is not really

1170
01:07:05,840 --> 01:07:08,640
Speaker 1: as important as just being a good pass catcher. So

1171
01:07:08,720 --> 01:07:11,840
Speaker 1: you get targets on early downs because if you're catching

1172
01:07:11,840 --> 01:07:13,760
Speaker 1: the ball on third down and probably means the team's punting.

1173
01:07:13,840 --> 01:07:15,720
Speaker 1: So just things like that to keep in mind, and

1174
01:07:15,720 --> 01:07:19,520
Speaker 1: then understanding the like the organization, what what are they

1175
01:07:20,040 --> 01:07:22,280
Speaker 1: looking for out of a running back. Sometimes you get

1176
01:07:22,320 --> 01:07:24,040
Speaker 1: guys come in and say we're gonna run this guy

1177
01:07:24,040 --> 01:07:25,600
Speaker 1: into the ground. Like you kind of saw that coming

1178
01:07:25,640 --> 01:07:28,960
Speaker 1: with the Eagles because they paid you know that they

1179
01:07:29,000 --> 01:07:31,840
Speaker 1: paid a hefty price for say kuon where you know,

1180
01:07:31,920 --> 01:07:35,040
Speaker 1: sometimes you see the opposite, you see, okay, there's been

1181
01:07:35,040 --> 01:07:37,640
Speaker 1: more of a committee this this coach like Shanahan, we

1182
01:07:37,680 --> 01:07:40,680
Speaker 1: talk about it all the time. It's even if you're

1183
01:07:40,680 --> 01:07:44,120
Speaker 1: trying to find that handcuff for McCaffrey be careful because

1184
01:07:44,280 --> 01:07:46,760
Speaker 1: if usually the guy after the guy after the guy

1185
01:07:47,320 --> 01:07:50,800
Speaker 1: in the chiefs backfield, the guy who's coming into the

1186
01:07:50,840 --> 01:07:54,040
Speaker 1: year as the number one guy hardly ever hits because

1187
01:07:54,080 --> 01:07:56,000
Speaker 1: andyur Reed doesn't like to run, and so that creates

1188
01:07:56,080 --> 01:07:59,280
Speaker 1: variants in itself, and then he's not very loyal to

1189
01:07:59,400 --> 01:08:04,280
Speaker 1: they don't price the high premium on Uh, they're running

1190
01:08:04,280 --> 01:08:07,000
Speaker 1: back room in the sense of it's all about mahomes

1191
01:08:07,000 --> 01:08:09,360
Speaker 1: in the passing game, so and really just mahomes because

1192
01:08:09,400 --> 01:08:12,160
Speaker 1: and so everyone else is interchangeable. They'll switch guys up

1193
01:08:12,360 --> 01:08:14,840
Speaker 1: if they need to very quickly, and so just kind

1194
01:08:14,840 --> 01:08:18,080
Speaker 1: of understanding things like that can give you a big

1195
01:08:18,160 --> 01:08:20,519
Speaker 1: edge because again, a lot of times what it can

1196
01:08:20,560 --> 01:08:23,600
Speaker 1: do is put you onto fading somebody that maybe no

1197
01:08:23,640 --> 01:08:26,240
Speaker 1: one else has a strong opinion about. So they're not

1198
01:08:26,280 --> 01:08:29,200
Speaker 1: necessarily fading that player even if they're you know, it's

1199
01:08:29,439 --> 01:08:33,000
Speaker 1: it's not a he's not a guy that's being taken aggressively.

1200
01:08:33,080 --> 01:08:35,439
Speaker 1: And those are the little pivots that end up winning

1201
01:08:35,479 --> 01:08:38,000
Speaker 1: your league because again, you know, you have you have

1202
01:08:38,080 --> 01:08:41,000
Speaker 1: so many you have all the picks to potentially win

1203
01:08:41,240 --> 01:08:45,719
Speaker 1: even when you're not drafting. So, uh, that's how I

1204
01:08:45,800 --> 01:08:48,559
Speaker 1: kind of see it and I want to close it

1205
01:08:48,640 --> 01:08:53,120
Speaker 1: out though, Sean with some great tips that you give

1206
01:08:53,160 --> 01:08:57,120
Speaker 1: every year to people who are still playing in leagues

1207
01:08:57,160 --> 01:08:59,679
Speaker 1: where you draft a kicker or a defense or both,

1208
01:08:59,720 --> 01:09:03,599
Speaker 1: which I would say mostly probably best boson one that's

1209
01:09:04,080 --> 01:09:07,000
Speaker 1: taking them out completely. So talk to me about your

1210
01:09:07,000 --> 01:09:12,280
Speaker 1: strategies for kicker and defense in leagues that draft them.

1211
01:09:12,800 --> 01:09:15,880
Speaker 2: Well, my strategies, I have none, because what I like

1212
01:09:16,000 --> 01:09:19,240
Speaker 2: to do is unless they for some leagues they force

1213
01:09:19,280 --> 01:09:22,400
Speaker 2: you to draft a kicker defense. You can get around

1214
01:09:22,400 --> 01:09:27,120
Speaker 2: this still with my approach, but I don't draft for

1215
01:09:27,240 --> 01:09:31,880
Speaker 2: kicker defense for a couple of reasons. First is, those

1216
01:09:31,920 --> 01:09:35,160
Speaker 2: two positions are very easy to stream in season.

1217
01:09:35,200 --> 01:09:36,760
Speaker 1: They're very matchup dependent.

1218
01:09:36,920 --> 01:09:39,719
Speaker 2: So every week I'm going to have a guy widely

1219
01:09:39,720 --> 01:09:43,000
Speaker 2: available ranked inside my top five or ten most weeks,

1220
01:09:43,000 --> 01:09:45,840
Speaker 2: and I could usually churn out, you know, a top

1221
01:09:45,880 --> 01:09:49,320
Speaker 2: ten kicker, top ten defense that way. So I just

1222
01:09:49,360 --> 01:09:51,479
Speaker 2: don't like spending draft keple on them. So what I

1223
01:09:51,560 --> 01:09:54,280
Speaker 2: like to do is I like to just take a

1224
01:09:54,320 --> 01:09:58,519
Speaker 2: couple more lottery picks of like backup. It could even

1225
01:09:58,560 --> 01:10:01,400
Speaker 2: be like a third string running back. Running backs that

1226
01:10:03,400 --> 01:10:07,040
Speaker 2: you know, usually we're drafting during preseason where you know,

1227
01:10:07,280 --> 01:10:11,160
Speaker 2: running back could tweak his ankle and be now questionable

1228
01:10:11,200 --> 01:10:13,320
Speaker 2: for week one or miss time. So I've done this

1229
01:10:13,400 --> 01:10:16,120
Speaker 2: over the years of just taking an extra couple running

1230
01:10:16,160 --> 01:10:19,840
Speaker 2: backs and it's cash out a couple of times. I

1231
01:10:19,920 --> 01:10:22,920
Speaker 2: think the first time I did it was when Leveon

1232
01:10:23,000 --> 01:10:26,960
Speaker 2: Bell there was some concern he might get suspended or

1233
01:10:27,000 --> 01:10:30,640
Speaker 2: something like that, so I just drafted James Connor with

1234
01:10:30,720 --> 01:10:33,799
Speaker 2: my last pick, and sure enough, right before the season started,

1235
01:10:33,840 --> 01:10:37,320
Speaker 2: I believe Le'Veon Bell suspended like four games or something

1236
01:10:37,360 --> 01:10:39,880
Speaker 2: like that. So all of a sudden, I had the

1237
01:10:39,880 --> 01:10:43,840
Speaker 2: Steelers starting running back for free. I could have drafted

1238
01:10:43,920 --> 01:10:46,920
Speaker 2: you know, some kicker, but instead I now had the

1239
01:10:47,040 --> 01:10:50,920
Speaker 2: RB one for the Steelers, so that pan, oh, no,

1240
01:10:51,040 --> 01:10:54,000
Speaker 2: Le'Veon Bell is a holdout that year. Yeah, as it happened,

1241
01:10:54,040 --> 01:10:58,160
Speaker 2: So anything can happened. Where I just you know, take

1242
01:10:58,439 --> 01:11:01,680
Speaker 2: a couple of flyers and then you just wait and

1243
01:11:01,720 --> 01:11:02,439
Speaker 2: see if they hit.

1244
01:11:02,560 --> 01:11:03,320
Speaker 1: Usually they don't.

1245
01:11:04,160 --> 01:11:06,679
Speaker 2: And then you know, come week one when it's time

1246
01:11:06,760 --> 01:11:10,519
Speaker 2: to you know, actually need a kicker defense, that's when

1247
01:11:10,560 --> 01:11:13,840
Speaker 2: I add my kicker and defense for week one and

1248
01:11:13,880 --> 01:11:14,880
Speaker 2: then kind of go from there.

1249
01:11:14,920 --> 01:11:17,840
Speaker 1: But I think it's just a tiny little quirk.

1250
01:11:17,840 --> 01:11:20,240
Speaker 2: We're looking for all the edges we can right, so

1251
01:11:21,160 --> 01:11:23,880
Speaker 2: more times than not it won't pan out, but you

1252
01:11:23,880 --> 01:11:25,800
Speaker 2: know there's a chance it could hit.

1253
01:11:25,840 --> 01:11:27,799
Speaker 1: That's why I call them lottery tickets.

1254
01:11:27,840 --> 01:11:30,240
Speaker 2: But just at the end of the day, if you can,

1255
01:11:30,840 --> 01:11:34,120
Speaker 2: don't draft a kicker defense instead, just you know, take

1256
01:11:34,120 --> 01:11:37,000
Speaker 2: a couple of flyers to see what happens the next

1257
01:11:37,120 --> 01:11:39,840
Speaker 2: you know, final week or two before the season starts.

1258
01:11:40,680 --> 01:11:46,640
Speaker 1: Yeah, and that is like just the most like I

1259
01:11:46,680 --> 01:11:51,640
Speaker 1: think the like the people who needed to hear that

1260
01:11:52,240 --> 01:11:54,080
Speaker 1: are going to benefit so much from it because it's

1261
01:11:54,120 --> 01:11:56,360
Speaker 1: it's just something that you don't even think, Like, I

1262
01:11:56,400 --> 01:11:59,280
Speaker 1: didn't even think about that before you said it. I

1263
01:12:00,080 --> 01:12:02,320
Speaker 1: may it maybe have happened by accident, but I wasn't

1264
01:12:02,360 --> 01:12:05,080
Speaker 1: like purposely doing it. It's just such a great strategy.

1265
01:12:05,320 --> 01:12:07,240
Speaker 1: And I think that's really how you have to think

1266
01:12:07,280 --> 01:12:10,920
Speaker 1: about these weeks, is that there are so many edges

1267
01:12:10,960 --> 01:12:13,880
Speaker 1: you could have. But for example, I think there's also

1268
01:12:13,880 --> 01:12:16,400
Speaker 1: a lot of experts that don't maybe put as much

1269
01:12:16,800 --> 01:12:21,120
Speaker 1: into their kicker and defense projection. So there are things

1270
01:12:21,160 --> 01:12:23,200
Speaker 1: that you know when you're like the the easy way

1271
01:12:23,240 --> 01:12:26,320
Speaker 1: to do it is you just look at a point

1272
01:12:26,360 --> 01:12:29,519
Speaker 1: projection for the team, which essentially usually comes down to

1273
01:12:29,840 --> 01:12:33,400
Speaker 1: their Vegas implied team total. How many points Vegas has

1274
01:12:33,520 --> 01:12:36,760
Speaker 1: is their you know, median each week that they're But

1275
01:12:37,760 --> 01:12:40,599
Speaker 1: there are other things, and there's also just in general,

1276
01:12:40,600 --> 01:12:43,080
Speaker 1: you got to be paying attention to league wide trends.

1277
01:12:43,080 --> 01:12:44,800
Speaker 1: I mean, there's more field goals than ever last year,

1278
01:12:44,800 --> 01:12:47,080
Speaker 1: and a lot of weeks are given more points for

1279
01:12:48,960 --> 01:12:52,360
Speaker 1: longer field goals now, and so there are gonna be

1280
01:12:52,479 --> 01:12:54,960
Speaker 1: edges to be had at kicker, so don't you know,

1281
01:12:55,000 --> 01:12:57,400
Speaker 1: and we like we like to just joke around a

1282
01:12:57,439 --> 01:12:59,920
Speaker 1: lot because they're, you know, of all the things we're doing,

1283
01:13:00,040 --> 01:13:03,599
Speaker 1: kickers usually have like among the least priorities. But there's

1284
01:13:03,640 --> 01:13:06,640
Speaker 1: still edges to be had at kicker in terms of

1285
01:13:06,680 --> 01:13:12,040
Speaker 1: the actual project evaluation process too. So there's you know,

1286
01:13:12,080 --> 01:13:15,720
Speaker 1: whatever edges actual disposal do them. And that's why I

1287
01:13:15,720 --> 01:13:18,519
Speaker 1: would say too, when you talk about not drafting a

1288
01:13:18,560 --> 01:13:22,439
Speaker 1: kick or defense, I've applied that to pretty much every

1289
01:13:22,439 --> 01:13:27,559
Speaker 1: position but running back. In certain drafts, because I mentioned earlier,

1290
01:13:27,640 --> 01:13:31,840
Speaker 1: there's gonna we we look for about a certain number

1291
01:13:31,840 --> 01:13:34,280
Speaker 1: of wide receivers in the early rounds and then they

1292
01:13:34,360 --> 01:13:36,439
Speaker 1: kind of run out and they're all interchangeable. Then it's

1293
01:13:36,479 --> 01:13:38,799
Speaker 1: like a frozen pond to wide receivers except their backup.

1294
01:13:38,800 --> 01:13:42,559
Speaker 1: So it doesn't matter. But if I draft five receivers

1295
01:13:42,560 --> 01:13:44,680
Speaker 1: in the first ten rounds, even if I even if

1296
01:13:44,680 --> 01:13:48,080
Speaker 1: I only drafted four and it's a two whiur receiver

1297
01:13:48,160 --> 01:13:50,960
Speaker 1: league or something, it might not make sense for me

1298
01:13:51,000 --> 01:13:54,000
Speaker 1: to have a guy on my roster when I could

1299
01:13:54,040 --> 01:13:57,040
Speaker 1: pick up anyone when it comes time for that, or

1300
01:13:57,120 --> 01:14:01,639
Speaker 1: multiple guys. So it's really about just maximizing your roster spot.

1301
01:14:01,680 --> 01:14:04,080
Speaker 1: And if you're if you're going to be a commissioner

1302
01:14:04,080 --> 01:14:06,400
Speaker 1: and play an active rolling that in your in your leagues,

1303
01:14:07,160 --> 01:14:08,800
Speaker 1: it is something to kind of think about to how

1304
01:14:08,800 --> 01:14:11,760
Speaker 1: you want how you want to approach that, because this

1305
01:14:12,080 --> 01:14:14,360
Speaker 1: is these are some of the edges that I think

1306
01:14:14,880 --> 01:14:18,320
Speaker 1: go overlook when everyone's just screaming about their favorite weight

1307
01:14:18,439 --> 01:14:21,439
Speaker 1: round dart throw that's got like a one percent chance

1308
01:14:21,680 --> 01:14:22,160
Speaker 1: of hitting.

1309
01:14:22,680 --> 01:14:25,920
Speaker 2: So, yeah, you made a fantastic You made a fantastic

1310
01:14:26,000 --> 01:14:29,400
Speaker 2: point about kickers and defenses. I still, you know, care

1311
01:14:29,439 --> 01:14:31,920
Speaker 2: about my projections and rankings for them, but especially in

1312
01:14:32,080 --> 01:14:34,760
Speaker 2: season when you and I we talk about you know,

1313
01:14:34,760 --> 01:14:38,679
Speaker 2: a waiver wire Streamer picks for the Week we're both

1314
01:14:38,680 --> 01:14:41,639
Speaker 2: taking it very seriously with our projection, so we'll we'll

1315
01:14:41,640 --> 01:14:44,680
Speaker 2: be breaking down kickers and defenses every week based on

1316
01:14:44,720 --> 01:14:47,120
Speaker 2: what you said. There's all these factors that go into

1317
01:14:47,120 --> 01:14:50,599
Speaker 2: it that are you know, matchup specific things like that,

1318
01:14:50,640 --> 01:14:54,040
Speaker 2: are like the environment they're playing in. So during the season,

1319
01:14:54,080 --> 01:14:56,080
Speaker 2: I absolutely take it seriously because that's kind of.

1320
01:14:56,000 --> 01:14:58,160
Speaker 1: What I do. I just roll with the you know,

1321
01:14:58,520 --> 01:14:59,000
Speaker 1: the flow.

1322
01:14:59,120 --> 01:15:02,400
Speaker 2: During the season, I'm I'm adding dropping kickers and defenses

1323
01:15:03,040 --> 01:15:05,759
Speaker 2: every week. So it's very important to have good weekly

1324
01:15:05,840 --> 01:15:09,200
Speaker 2: productions on those, which we both do. And yeah, that's

1325
01:15:09,280 --> 01:15:11,920
Speaker 2: that's a great point of during the season, we take

1326
01:15:12,000 --> 01:15:13,679
Speaker 2: kickers and defenses very seriously.

1327
01:15:15,000 --> 01:15:17,960
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's just right at certain points, even when you're

1328
01:15:18,280 --> 01:15:22,240
Speaker 1: drafting in late August, anyone will do. It's like you

1329
01:15:22,240 --> 01:15:24,519
Speaker 1: ever been at a bar with a too late in college.

1330
01:15:24,920 --> 01:15:26,479
Speaker 1: You kind of know what i't to talk about. So

1331
01:15:29,000 --> 01:15:32,360
Speaker 1: we'll wrap it up with that. And this has been

1332
01:15:32,720 --> 01:15:40,080
Speaker 1: the seventh annual Fantasy Flex Experts Guide to Fantasy Thanks

1333
01:15:40,120 --> 01:15:43,160
Speaker 1: for tuning in. We'll have plenty of more NFL content

1334
01:15:43,280 --> 01:15:45,599
Speaker 1: on both the Action Network podcasts and of course right

1335
01:15:45,600 --> 01:15:48,960
Speaker 1: here on the Fantasy Flex. Will be sure to subscribe

1336
01:15:49,120 --> 01:15:54,800
Speaker 1: Rate Review wherever you listen, and I spoke about this

1337
01:15:54,920 --> 01:15:58,200
Speaker 1: a couple of times I think earlier, but make sure

1338
01:15:58,840 --> 01:16:03,160
Speaker 1: to market calendar for our live event August twenty third

1339
01:16:03,240 --> 01:16:06,679
Speaker 1: at Joe's on Weed Street in Chicago. It's totally free

1340
01:16:07,120 --> 01:16:10,880
Speaker 1: to attend. You just need to RSVP. I'll be there,

1341
01:16:11,680 --> 01:16:13,920
Speaker 1: Sean will be there. I think we're gonna have some

1342
01:16:13,920 --> 01:16:18,880
Speaker 1: special guests as well, so be sure to RSVP if

1343
01:16:18,880 --> 01:16:21,599
Speaker 1: you want to come through and kick it with us.

1344
01:16:21,680 --> 01:16:25,000
Speaker 1: And of course, if you're trying to find Sean, he's

1345
01:16:25,040 --> 01:16:27,880
Speaker 1: at the Underscore Odds Maker. I'm at Chris Raybond right

1346
01:16:27,920 --> 01:16:30,559
Speaker 1: those same hand. He's on the free award winning Action

1347
01:16:30,600 --> 01:16:33,840
Speaker 1: app as we are on ex and until the next time,

1348
01:16:33,960 --> 01:16:45,280
Speaker 1: all I gotta say get this money. Action Network reminds

1349
01:16:45,320 --> 01:16:49,160
Speaker 1: you please gamble responsibly. If you or someone you care

1350
01:16:49,200 --> 01:16:52,320
Speaker 1: about has a gambling problem, help is available twenty four

1351
01:16:52,360 --> 01:16:54,440
Speaker 1: to seven at one eight hundred Gambler