Speaker 1: The Volume.
Speaker 2: All right, welcome to Hoops Tonight. Here at the Volume,
Speaker 2: Happy Wednesday, everybody, Happy. NBA Finals EVE. Coverage of the
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Speaker 2: gonna prime for Game one, but bringing on the guys
Speaker 2: from Nerd, Sesh, Logan and Carson Gonna come on. I
Speaker 2: have a lot of interesting stuff that I dug up
Speaker 2: during my NBA Finals preview on Tuesday morning, and so
Speaker 2: we've got four questions from this series that we're gonna
Speaker 2: dive into. I'm gonna start with the biggest problem. Is
Speaker 2: there any chance that Miami can slow down Nikola Jokic.
Speaker 2: So before I t this one up, we'll start with Logan.
Speaker 2: Before I tear t this one up for you, I
Speaker 2: have a crazy stat So in my film study Person Energy,
Speaker 2: the Denver Nuggets posted up the Miami Heat thirty times
Speaker 2: and they are two games this season and scored in
Speaker 2: astonishing forty seven points on those thirty post ups, which
Speaker 2: is over a point and a half per possession. Wasn't
Speaker 2: just Jokic. There's a lot of Aaron Gordon beaten switches
Speaker 2: as well. A little bit of Jamal Murray. But the
Speaker 2: reality is is it's a Jokic problem because even when
Speaker 2: I was watching them spam Aaron Gordon post ups on
Speaker 2: Kyle Lowry, it was a lot of Nikola Jokic identifying
Speaker 2: the mismatch, placing the off ball players where he wanted them,
Speaker 2: and making that post entry pass from the left wing.
Speaker 2: So my question for both of you guys start with logan,
Speaker 2: is there any chance that Miami can slow down the
Speaker 2: attack of the Denver Nuggets and Nikola Jokic.
Speaker 1: Yeah, you know, we answered this question on a NERD session.
Speaker 1: I think if Eric Spolster or Jimmy Butler can find
Speaker 1: like a rabbit foot or a four leaf clover, maybe,
Speaker 1: or maybe they go and rub as many old lamps
Speaker 1: as they can and can get a genie to pop
Speaker 1: out with some wishes, I think they can get it done. No,
Speaker 1: I don't think they really have a prayer at slowing
Speaker 1: down Jokic. Jason, you mentioned those crazy post up numbers
Speaker 1: to the Carson mentioned a crazy stat on our show.
Speaker 1: The Nuggets have also been one of the best teams
Speaker 1: against the zone point blank person energy too. I mean,
Speaker 1: I don't really know personnel wise or schematically wise, what
Speaker 1: the Heat can do to slow down this attack, right,
Speaker 1: because I think a lot of people are gonna look
Speaker 1: at this matchup and they're gonna go all bam Adebayo
Speaker 1: is one of the best defenders on planet Earth. You
Speaker 1: stick him one on one on Jokic, maybe they can
Speaker 1: slow him down a little bit.
Speaker 3: It's just not that simple, man, you know.
Speaker 1: I look at the two man game with Jokich and Murray,
Speaker 1: and that's what really causes problems is all the switches
Speaker 1: that this Nuggets offense creates. The Heat don't have the
Speaker 1: personnel to be really switchable. They don't have the personnel
Speaker 1: to stick another guy on Jokic and have bam and
Speaker 1: kind of that Rover off ball roll. The way the
Speaker 1: Lakers were. I think the Lakers were the best defensive
Speaker 1: matchup that we saw for Denver. In all of these
Speaker 1: teams in the playoff field. They had a lot of big,
Speaker 1: physical guys like Hatch, you like Van Do like a
Speaker 1: d and that still didn't matter.
Speaker 3: The Lakers got swept.
Speaker 1: And I also agree with you guys, I think Ad
Speaker 1: is the best defensive player on the planet Earth. So yeah,
Speaker 1: I mean, short answer, I think it would take something spiritual.
Speaker 1: I think it would take cosmic entity guys. I think
Speaker 1: it will take something. I think it'll take a lot
Speaker 1: of praying for the Miami Heat to slow down this offense.
Speaker 1: I don't really think that they can do anything schematically
Speaker 1: to slow them down.
Speaker 3: I just kind of think they're outmatched.
Speaker 1: I know that's a boring answer, but I think the
Speaker 1: Nuggets have the most talented offense in the NBA, the
Speaker 1: best offensive player who's just an unsolvable puzzle. Whatever you
Speaker 1: throw at Yokic, he has an answer for you. You
Speaker 1: can't throw him doubles, he will find an open shooter.
Speaker 1: You can't put one guy on him because he's gonna
Speaker 1: bully that matchup.
Speaker 3: So no, I think it's.
Speaker 1: Gonna take a lot of luck and maybe some some
Speaker 1: lucky objects too for the Heat, man, I don't really
Speaker 1: think they have an answer for the offense or Jokic.
Speaker 2: It's supposure to run out on the floor as a
Speaker 2: six defenders what you can.
Speaker 4: It wouldn't hurt.
Speaker 5: But I also don't think that there's really an answer
Speaker 5: in this series because I think the Niko Jokic is
Speaker 5: effectively unstoppable offensively in this run He's thirty thirteen and
Speaker 5: ten on sixty two percent true shooting. I believe in
Speaker 5: the midst of one of the handful of highest offensive
Speaker 5: peaks we've ever seen, because he is arguably the best
Speaker 5: playmaker and scorer alive right now and has such a
Speaker 5: tremendous versatility to the number of ways in which he
Speaker 5: can kill you, and I just think you run down
Speaker 5: the heat options one by one. Like Logan mentioned, you
Speaker 5: try Bam on jokicen single coverage, I just think that's
Speaker 5: a mismatch. Bam is an awesome defender, one of the
Speaker 5: five best on the planet in my opinion, but his
Speaker 5: primary defensive value is as a team defender, his immense switchability,
Speaker 5: his IQ is value as a helper and rinp protector.
Speaker 5: One on one defense, You're looking at a six to
Speaker 5: nine guy with a seven to one wing span. He
Speaker 5: is simply not big enough to affect Yokic in a
Speaker 5: meaningful way, and by the way, nobody really has been.
Speaker 5: I mean, we've seen him go up against massive elite
Speaker 5: defensive players with tremendous length, Rudy Gobert in single coverage,
Speaker 5: Anthony Davis in single coverage, and he cooked both those
Speaker 5: guys so thoroughly that the best option for those teams became, Okay,
Speaker 5: let's put another big, strong body on him, so then
Speaker 5: we can have our best defenders and help. But I
Speaker 5: also think, as Logan laid out, Miami is not particularly
Speaker 5: well equipped to try that strategy with Bam as the roamer.
Speaker 5: The guy who you probably have to look to there
Speaker 5: as the primary Jokic post defender would be Kevin Love,
Speaker 5: who has a big body, but not a very good
Speaker 5: defender in bottom line still six ' eight, like Jokic
Speaker 5: is just gonna give him work, a whole lot of it,
Speaker 5: and he's averaged one point two points per post up
Speaker 5: in this playoff run. That number holds true if he's
Speaker 5: the one shooting or if he's the one passing. Nobody
Speaker 5: can guard him in single coverage. He is too powerful.
Speaker 5: He is too unstoppable as a skilled shot maker with
Speaker 5: his turnarounds, with his hooks and his touch finishing, and
Speaker 5: the playmaking is obviously unreal. We saw in that La
Speaker 5: series the regularity with which, if somebody just dug in
Speaker 5: that little bit, he was finding the open shooter and
Speaker 5: creating consistently elite offense for his teammates. And then the
Speaker 5: weapon for Miami this entire playoff run has been the zone.
Speaker 5: We saw it give Boston fits in multiple games. We
Speaker 5: saw it give New York fits. I do not think
Speaker 5: it works against Denver. As Logan mentioned, the Nuggets were
Speaker 5: a ninety third percentile offense against zone this year, almost
Speaker 5: one point two points per possession. Just ridiculous. And Jokic
Speaker 5: is so dominant facilitating from the middle of the floor,
Speaker 5: and Denver is so good at moving to open space.
Speaker 5: They have so many good cutters, and they have so
Speaker 5: many lethal shooters who have demonstrated a level of consistency
Speaker 5: there that really nobody in the league can match. You're
Speaker 5: just not gonna rattle them. You're just not gonna throw
Speaker 5: them out of their rhythm in the same way that
Speaker 5: you're able to do to Boston, where maybe they're not
Speaker 5: getting consistent penetration into the middle of that zone, or
Speaker 5: they're settling for these sort of one pass, catch and
Speaker 5: shoot looks that aren't great, or you're able to force
Speaker 5: their primary ball handlers into turnovers, or they just don't
Speaker 5: have that same level of off ball movement. That doesn't
Speaker 5: happen with this Nuggets offense. They are incredibly disciplined. They
Speaker 5: have the best playmaker on the planet, and they have
Speaker 5: an awesome supporting cast, and I just think it's going
Speaker 5: to be the same dilemma that everybody else has faced.
Speaker 5: You try to cover yokicen single coverage, you die. You
Speaker 5: try any combination of doubles, you die. Because the supporting
Speaker 5: cast is too good as well. And it's so funny
Speaker 5: to me how some people just continue to not understand this.
Speaker 5: It's like Logan said, I thought that La had the
Speaker 5: best combination of personnel to guard Yokic, And by the way,
Speaker 5: Minnesota had a pretty good defensive front court two for
Speaker 5: that matchup, and against La, Yokic went out and put
Speaker 5: up twenty eight, fifteen and twelve efficiently. We had some
Speaker 5: guy in our comments section yesterday say that it's simple.
Speaker 5: All you got to do is front and with Bam
Speaker 5: and then you double with one of the guards and
Speaker 5: Yokich can't handle it.
Speaker 4: It's like, oh yeah, you're just gonna fluster him off
Speaker 4: the catch. It's not like against these zone looks.
Speaker 5: Literally, the second he touches the ball, he has it
Speaker 5: out to a shooter.
Speaker 4: He's just a different breed.
Speaker 5: He's the best player alive, and I think that's why
Speaker 5: you're looking at such a mismatch here, because nobody can
Speaker 5: take away what he and this Denver offense does.
Speaker 2: I'm glad you mentioned the supporting cast because it's an
Speaker 2: important part of this.
Speaker 4: Like, here's the thing.
Speaker 2: I do believe Yokich is the best offensive player in
Speaker 2: the league, but I don't think it's by some massive margin.
Speaker 2: Like there are four they're generally speaking, throughout the NBA history,
Speaker 2: there's three, four or five guys at any given moment
Speaker 2: that are the ultimate conundrum, which is you can't guard
Speaker 2: them on an island, and you can't guard them with
Speaker 2: double teams because they can pass out of it. Like
Speaker 2: Lebron's been like that, STEP's been like that over the years.
Speaker 2: That's not necessarily unprecedented. What makes it unstoppable is the
Speaker 2: ultimate supporting cast, Aaron Gordon being the perfect deep seal,
Speaker 2: vertical threat, offensive rebounding threat who can also beat post
Speaker 2: mismatches with KCP and Michael Porter Junior just as good
Speaker 2: spot up shooters but utterly deadly spot up shooters. Like
Speaker 2: if you literally flipped Michael Porter Junior for Grant Williams.
Speaker 2: The whole thing crumbles because once those spot up shooting
Speaker 2: numbers go from I literally cannot afford to leave this
Speaker 2: guy open to yeah, I can kind of live with it.
Speaker 2: It trickles down, and that'll be the really interesting phase
Speaker 2: of Nikola Jokic's career is as it kind of fades
Speaker 2: to the point where because of the CBA they have
Speaker 2: to pinch some pennies on some of the role players.
Speaker 2: That's where it'll get a little bit more complicated. That's
Speaker 2: why I consider this Denver team. I was talking about
Speaker 2: this with our colleague live yesterday, but I view this
Speaker 2: Denver Nuggets team as an echelon above even other recent
Speaker 2: NBA champions in terms of the fact that, like I
Speaker 2: really do think they are exceptionally dominant and what they're
Speaker 2: doing now is really impressive. Think of it like this,
Speaker 2: like they actually kicked the shit out of the Suns
Speaker 2: more than they kicked the shit out of the Lakers,
Speaker 2: just didn't show up in the series score. Three of
Speaker 2: the four wins were like nasty blowouts, right, and it
Speaker 2: took these other worldly shooting performances from Devin Booker to
Speaker 2: eke out a couple of wins. But like the Lakers
Speaker 2: actually played them super close. In all four games, three
Speaker 2: of them required clutch situations, one of them required to
Speaker 2: Nicola Jokic late game winner, one of them had Lebron
Speaker 2: missed late three that could have tied it, and the
Speaker 2: one that didn't involve a clutch situation was literally a
Speaker 2: game the Lakers had a double digit second half lead.
Speaker 2: And so they've dominated the competition with the Kevin Durant
Speaker 2: Devin Booker team, with the Lebron James Anthony Davis team,
Speaker 2: I think they are all time great. I think they've
Speaker 2: defended a hell of a lot better than any of
Speaker 2: us could have expected. So I want I'm glad that
Speaker 2: like I think this is. This has been a referendum
Speaker 2: on how good Jokic is, but it's also been a
Speaker 2: referendum on how good this roster is. Jamal Murray very
Speaker 2: well could be a top fifteen player when we do
Speaker 2: our player rankings this summer. So I wanted to shout
Speaker 2: those guys out. What makes this problem unique to me?
Speaker 2: If you look at the spolstress situation, so he has
Speaker 2: effectively out chess matched three teams in a row that
Speaker 2: were more talented him.
Speaker 4: That's just a fact.
Speaker 2: I don't think anybody he's disagreeing with us there, So
Speaker 2: why is it that Sposure doesn't win the title every year?
Speaker 2: Then if his coaching advantage is that big, especially since
Speaker 2: there have been more talented by heat rosters. Hell, even
Speaker 2: last year, I would argue they were more talented. They
Speaker 2: had healthy Tyler Harrow, they had PJ. Tucker, they had
Speaker 2: more size in athleticism. It's a totally different team, So
Speaker 2: why is it working this year? That's what makes this
Speaker 2: particular matchup interesting to me. Every single one of the
Speaker 2: three teams that Miami beat on their way to the
Speaker 2: NBA Finals didn't just have weaknesses, had glaring weaknesses in
Speaker 2: their half court offense. For Milwaukee, it was Yiannis's inability
Speaker 2: to make free throws and to make shots over the
Speaker 2: top of the defense, and the inconsistency of Drew Holliday
Speaker 2: and Chris Middleton, who was coming off of an injury.
Speaker 2: In the second round, it was Julius Randall crumbling into
Speaker 2: oblivion and the spot up shooters all going cold, which
Speaker 2: left Jalen Brunson as their only solid half court option,
Speaker 2: so they were really limited in the half court offensively.
Speaker 2: And for the Boston Celtics, it was two primary shot
Speaker 2: creators that are not playing at a superstar level, and
Speaker 2: a surrounded by shooting that was not elite guys that
Speaker 2: can all can make shots, but guys that weren't knocked
Speaker 2: down shooters, so they could go cold for extended stretches.
Speaker 2: So what that provided Eric Spolstra was opportunities for coaching
Speaker 2: to play a massive role in the series because he
Speaker 2: effectively able was able to capitalize on those weaknesses in
Speaker 2: all three rounds and route to an NBA champ or
Speaker 2: and to a birth in the NBA Finals. In this
Speaker 2: particular series, there is no role, in my opinion, that
Speaker 2: coaching can play to disrupt this Nuggets offense. In fact,
Speaker 2: if Miami wins, I think there will be a very
Speaker 2: clear reason why, it'll just be uncharacteristic cold shooting from
Speaker 2: every Nugget, like Michael Porter will just go cold, CACP
Speaker 2: will just go cold because they, let's call it what
Speaker 2: it is, they shot the lights out against the Lakers,
Speaker 2: which that's what they're capable of. But I find it
Speaker 2: extremely unlikely that any sort of schematic approach is going
Speaker 2: to disrupt what the Nuggets can do offensively. You talked
Speaker 2: about the zone, like for the people who don't understand it.
Speaker 2: It's really basic. You have to get the ball to
Speaker 2: the middle of the zone. Why does that matter. It's
Speaker 2: a simple math problem. In a two three zone, there
Speaker 2: are three bodies on the back line. You have two
Speaker 2: wings offensively that will slide down to the corner when
Speaker 2: the ball gets to the middle. When you get the
Speaker 2: balls to the middle, the big man has to step up.
Speaker 2: When the big man gets it has to step up.
Speaker 2: You create a math problem underneath the basket. It leaves
Speaker 2: open shooters automatically. You just have to have somebody who's
Speaker 2: capable of scoring there, which brings the big guy up
Speaker 2: and you can make the reads quick enough. I know
Speaker 2: you talked about how quick he got the reads out.
Speaker 2: I saw a highlight in one of the games where
Speaker 2: they threw it to Jokich at the high post. He
Speaker 2: literally caught it up here and just flung it like this,
Speaker 2: like in one fluid motion to a shooter on the wing.
Speaker 2: It's like these guys are the combination of off ball shooting,
Speaker 2: the two man game of Jamal Murray and Nikola Jokic,
Speaker 2: and Aaron Gordon being the perfect non shooter to fill
Speaker 2: that role has made them completely and utterly unguardable, which
Speaker 2: takes us to our second question. Obviously, the Denver offense
Speaker 2: has a gigantic advantage. What is Miami's biggest advantage? Like,
Speaker 2: if Miami wins this series and we're telling the story
Speaker 2: about it in a post series like Moratorium, what is
Speaker 2: Miami's biggest advantage?
Speaker 5: Carson, Well, first of all, I think that you're right
Speaker 5: to say that this is the rare series in which
Speaker 5: they're not going to be able to convincingly win the
Speaker 5: coaching battle in a way that matters, because it's like
Speaker 5: you said, Denver just doesn't have things that you can
Speaker 5: exploit offensively. They don't turn the ball over, they have
Speaker 5: the lowest turnover eight. They have this incredibly consistent shooting
Speaker 5: supporting cast, they have this great cerebral decision maker leading
Speaker 5: it all, and so they're different from every other team
Speaker 5: that Miami has been able to exploit up to this point. Also,
Speaker 5: you look at a team like Boston, right, you have
Speaker 5: a lot of the mental lapses on both sides of
Speaker 5: the ball, sometimes just their effort not being there. Denver
Speaker 5: has been as consistently engaged as any team in this
Speaker 5: playoff field, along with own Miami, so you're not gonna
Speaker 5: be able to have that same leg up. I think
Speaker 5: you have to look at two potential categories, one of
Speaker 5: which could be the shooting ceiling. Do I think that
Speaker 5: Miami is a better shooting team than Denver? I do not,
Speaker 5: because it's like you said. MPG to me is one
Speaker 5: of the five most gifted pure shooters of the basketball
Speaker 5: this century. The guy is six ' ten. He can
Speaker 5: shoot from any angle with any level of contest, off
Speaker 5: any degree of movement.
Speaker 4: I saw stat today.
Speaker 5: I think his effective field goal percentage on wide open
Speaker 5: catch and shoot jumpers in these playoffs is at around
Speaker 5: ninety percent, Like it's unfathomable. And he is one of
Speaker 5: the most efficient three point shooters in the league when
Speaker 5: almost everything he takes is contested. KCP was leading the
Speaker 5: league in three point percentage for a lot of this year.
Speaker 5: Jamal is lethal as a pull up and catch and
Speaker 5: shooter up around forty percent. Right, So Denver is an
Speaker 5: elite shooting team. But when we've seen Miami pull these
Speaker 5: big time upsets, not like New York where they were
Speaker 5: able to get away with off shooting, because I think
Speaker 5: they were just better at the end of the day.
Speaker 5: They shot forty five percent from deep in their wins
Speaker 5: against the Bucks. They shot forty eight percent from deep
Speaker 5: in their wins against the Celtics. Do I consider that
Speaker 5: sustainable or something you should expect, not necessarily, but we
Speaker 5: have seen when all these guys are humming, they have
Speaker 5: a lot of lethal shooters on the floor. At the
Speaker 5: same time, they're able to create those guys looks out
Speaker 5: of handoffs, facing drop out of pick and roll, lots
Speaker 5: of great catch and shooters. So they could get very,
Speaker 5: very hot there and that has been key to their
Speaker 5: success so far. But the other thing that I think
Speaker 5: is less a matter of variance and is more of
Speaker 5: a legitimate advantage is their real depth. Like we can
Speaker 5: look at the top five for Denver the top six
Speaker 5: and say that's pretty clearly better. They have the best
Speaker 5: player in the series and they have a great supporting cast.
Speaker 5: But where Miami has been unrivaled in this playoff field,
Speaker 5: I think is the ability to have their seventh or
Speaker 5: eighth guys swing outcomes legitimately, or the variety of combinations
Speaker 5: that they're able to go with. Right, Denver doesn't necessarily
Speaker 5: have a Duncan Robinson who can come in playing eighteen
Speaker 5: minutes a night, but give you eighteen and kill you
Speaker 5: with his catch and shooting and his cutting and his
Speaker 5: pick and roll playmaking at times in this last series.
Speaker 5: Even the ability to go with a Kevin Love in
Speaker 5: certain matchups and have his shooting and rebounding impact things.
Speaker 5: Kyle Lowry capable at times of having these big time
Speaker 5: pull up jump shooting performances. Even a guy like Haywood
Speaker 5: high Smith coming in with his defense and his shooting
Speaker 5: having an impact Denver after the top six, which is stellar.
Speaker 5: Christian Brown is fine. I don't love Jeff Green, and
Speaker 5: that's kind of it. We haven't seen them turn to
Speaker 5: anybody else save like a few Reggie Jackson minutes last series,
Speaker 5: So that's not normally something that's gonna swing a series,
Speaker 5: but it is an advantage that Miami has, and potentially
Speaker 5: those non Yokic minutes could get a bit ugly, especially
Speaker 5: when there's a shift with no Jokic or Murray like
Speaker 5: we saw there was one point in that La series
Speaker 5: is where it's just an instant seven zero run when
Speaker 5: you send those two guys to the bench.
Speaker 4: They just lack offensive direction.
Speaker 5: But I think that deep bench for Miami is legitimately
Speaker 5: good and has proven to be in a way that
Speaker 5: Denver hasn't necessarily.
Speaker 3: Yeah, that's where i'd look for where Miami has the advantage.
Speaker 1: If you frame it like that, if Miami wins this series,
Speaker 1: it's going to be because of shooting.
Speaker 4: It's going to be.
Speaker 1: Because of depth, and I think it's specifically that pull
Speaker 1: up jump shooting. This as a team, they are scoring
Speaker 1: twenty five points per game on a thirty eight percent
Speaker 1: clip on pull up jumpers in these playoffs. And I
Speaker 1: want to make it clear too, guys, I don't think
Speaker 1: that the Miami heater a better pull up jump shooting
Speaker 1: team than Denver, because, like you guys said, I mean
Speaker 1: Jamal Murray, Michael Porter Junior, even Jokic man, Like, I
Speaker 1: just think there's a different skill level.
Speaker 3: But all of these guys can do it capably enough.
Speaker 1: And are deep enough to where, yeah, one guy can
Speaker 1: go cold, and you can afford to have that off
Speaker 1: night because you've got a lot of guys down in
Speaker 1: this rotation who can get hot at the drop of
Speaker 1: a head. I mean, guys, Caleb Martin. This is a
Speaker 1: remarkable stat to me. Derek White was number one the
Speaker 1: most efficient jump shooter in these playoffs before Boston got bounced,
Speaker 1: Caleb Martin is at one point three six points per
Speaker 1: jump shot in these playoffs. That's the second highest mark
Speaker 1: out of anybody, and all these guys can shoot. Martin,
Speaker 1: Robinson Lowry that over forty percent on pull up jumpers,
Speaker 1: Jimmy's at thirty nine percent, and gave Vincent's at thirty
Speaker 1: four percent. I mean, Vincent's a better shooter than that,
Speaker 1: I think, but can just get hot. And so I
Speaker 1: think if you're running pick and roll with the top
Speaker 1: of the key, if the Nuggets are running drop with
Speaker 1: NICOLEA Jokic, you know, I mean, we've seen Yokic come
Speaker 1: up higher in his drops in certain series, but he
Speaker 1: can still have that tendency to go to the basket.
Speaker 1: If they give these guys a lane, Miami can kill
Speaker 1: them from there. Again, I think it's unlikely, but that's
Speaker 1: the one area that I would give Miami maybe a
Speaker 1: slight advantage just because of the sheer volume and the
Speaker 1: depth that they have of guys that can kill you
Speaker 1: on that pull up jump shooting. But if I'm being honest, guys,
Speaker 1: I really think that's the only advantage that Miami possesses.
Speaker 1: I mean, I look at any of these other categories
Speaker 1: that Miami has won throughout the rebounding, the hustle plays.
Speaker 1: Like again, I think Denver has all of these physical
Speaker 1: advantages as well, where all of these guys are bigger,
Speaker 1: they're more athletic. And then again, I think it would take,
Speaker 1: like Carson said, like you said, Jason, a real lack
Speaker 1: of focus that we have just not seen from Denver
Speaker 1: throughout the regular season and throughout these playoffs for Miami
Speaker 1: to pull this off. So I think it's a it
Speaker 1: would be a perfect storm. But the one area I
Speaker 1: would point to is that pull up jump shooting and
Speaker 1: the sheer depth that Miami has.
Speaker 2: Miami will have good offensive stretches in this series, in
Speaker 2: my opinion. Well that's one of the things we learned
Speaker 2: from the Lakers series is like they do a much
Speaker 2: better job at the point of attack than you would expect.
Speaker 2: Jokic actually does his job in the defense better than
Speaker 2: you would expect, which is him coming up high out
Speaker 2: of that drop and kind of it's almost like a
Speaker 2: catch head where he's like kind of catching that driver.
Speaker 2: But there's no doubt that they offer less rim resistance
Speaker 2: than most teams, and so there will be you know,
Speaker 2: pocket passes to Bam where it seems like he finishes
Speaker 2: easily over the top of Aaron Gordon kind of roll
Speaker 2: into the rim, or or Jimmy kind of uses a
Speaker 2: head fake or a counter move to kind of get
Speaker 2: past Jokic and then just kind of glides to the
Speaker 2: rim for an easy layer. There's gonna be some moments
Speaker 2: like that. I also think with the way that Denver's
Speaker 2: pick and roll coverages work, some of these skip passes
Speaker 2: to the weak side to shooters will work. Carson did
Speaker 2: a good job breaking down just like the sheer amount
Speaker 2: of shooting that Miami has. Mimi does a really good
Speaker 2: job of keeping threats off the ball, so that like
Speaker 2: when you make those defensive commitments to certain spots, the
Speaker 2: spots on the floor, they can consistently make you pay.
Speaker 2: I look at two specific areas offensively, those skip passes
Speaker 2: to the shooters and then a lot of the stuff
Speaker 2: that Lebron James was doing matchup hunting. I think we'll
Speaker 2: see a lot of that from Jimmy Butler in this series.
Speaker 2: So if you guys noticed, like one of the ways
Speaker 2: that the Lakers confronted that coverage from Denver was just
Speaker 2: running these ghost screens with Austin Reeves to try to
Speaker 2: get Jamal Murray onto Lebron or to get him to
Speaker 2: linger on Lebron too much where Austin Reeves was able
Speaker 2: to get a shot. And one of the ways they
Speaker 2: countered that was they started talking Jamal Murray away on
Speaker 2: Dennis Schroeder and D'Angelo Russell, who D'Angel Russell just completely
Speaker 2: crumbled in the series mentally and couldn't make a shot,
Speaker 2: and Dennis Schroeder is too slow of a release and
Speaker 2: can't shoot off the move, So it kind of mitigated
Speaker 2: that problem. All of these shooters that are going to
Speaker 2: be on the floor for Miami, whether that's Max Strus
Speaker 2: or Gabe Vincent or Duncan robinsoner or Caleb Martin, they're
Speaker 2: all going to be players that can shoot on the move,
Speaker 2: and so that will put Denver in a little bit
Speaker 2: of a predicament where they're gonna have no choice but
Speaker 2: to put Jamal Murray on a guy who's capable of
Speaker 2: making them pay and pick and pop situations. So I
Speaker 2: do think we'll see a lot of Jimmy Butler matchup attacking.
Speaker 2: He had seven post ups and ISOs in the two
Speaker 2: games the season, scored nine points on him. Ironically, the
Speaker 2: ones that he didn't succeed super well on I thought
Speaker 2: were the Jokic possessions where he tried to iso Jokic.
Speaker 2: Jokic does a pretty good job of anticipating his moves
Speaker 2: and baiting him into long contested jump shots, but he
Speaker 2: had a lot of success attacking Michael Porter Junior. He
Speaker 2: attacked Jamal Murray as well for those classic little short
Speaker 2: jump shots that he's been hitting this entire playoff run.
Speaker 2: So they're gonna have offensive moments. Their biggest advantage is
Speaker 2: Jimmy Butler is basically just another version of Lebron, which,
Speaker 2: by the way, I thought Lebron outplayed Anthony Davis in
Speaker 2: the last round. I thought it was the one round
Speaker 2: in this playoff run where Lebron outplayed ad. I thought
Speaker 2: a d outplayed him in the previous two rounds. So
Speaker 2: that specific type of player, that big playmaking forward is
Speaker 2: the specific type of player that can give the Nuggets
Speaker 2: some problems. But it's just like juxtaposed with what the
Speaker 2: Nuggets do, it's like they're just gonna get one hundred
Speaker 2: and twenty points, So where are you getting your one
Speaker 2: hundred and twenty points?
Speaker 4: Like where you know?
Speaker 2: That's why I said to my show, like they're gonna
Speaker 2: need some sort of other world the offensive contribution. I
Speaker 2: watched all of bam Adebio's post ups and ISOs against Jokic.
Speaker 2: He had a couple quick moves in there that looked okay,
Speaker 2: but it's a lot of him settling for those tough,
Speaker 2: fadeaway jump shots in the lane that he's just not
Speaker 2: making right now. And he seems to have completely lost
Speaker 2: his confidence after what happened in that Boston series, after
Speaker 2: he smoked that hook shot right at the rim there
Speaker 2: in the a second half of Game seven. So yeah,
Speaker 2: it's just I just don't see a universe where that
Speaker 2: advantage is enough. And Carson, you mentioned this, and I
Speaker 2: think this has been the most important thing about Denver.
Speaker 2: They have been the team that doesn't seem susceptible to
Speaker 2: the ebbs and flows of desperation like they like. I've
Speaker 2: seen them face desperate teams and consistently play to the
Speaker 2: same level. From an efforts stame point, they would have
Speaker 2: swept Phoenix if it wasn't for Devin Booker undergoing an
Speaker 2: unlike literally an out of body experience as a pull
Speaker 2: up shooter. So I think a sweep is on the table.
Speaker 2: I can't pick a sweep because I've been so wrong
Speaker 2: about Miami in this playoff front and I refuse to
Speaker 2: make that mistake again. But like I, let's just put
Speaker 2: it this way. I have a flight to Bozeman, Montana
Speaker 2: for a relaxation trip away from the Arizona Heat after
Speaker 2: Game six, and I thoroughly expect to be able to
Speaker 2: make that flight without having to work a Game seven.
Speaker 2: That's where I'm at right now, So from there, let's
Speaker 2: move on. Obviously, we have two players in this series
Speaker 2: that are kind of regarded as upper echelon players but
Speaker 2: are missing the ultimate achievement, which is the NBA Finals.
Speaker 2: And I said this on my show, but like to me,
Speaker 2: the Finals are so sacred, and every year when we
Speaker 2: get to this time and I see the Finals Moniker
Speaker 2: and the logo, and I see the commercials, and I
Speaker 2: see the ABC intro video and all those different things,
Speaker 2: I'm always reminded why this matters so much to me
Speaker 2: and why I don't give, you know, I don't give
Speaker 2: the place in the hierarchy of the league to guys
Speaker 2: that haven't won a title yet, because I think this
Speaker 2: is the ultimate test for a basketball player, and as
Speaker 2: good as Jokic is, I think it's fair that I'm like, hey,
Speaker 2: let me see you do it at this stage first,
Speaker 2: you know, before we kind of give you that credit.
Speaker 2: But no matter what, two weeks from now, we're gonna
Speaker 2: be looking back and one of these guys, Jokich or
Speaker 2: Jimmy Butler, is going to be stamped as an NBA
Speaker 2: champion in the finals MVP. So my question for you, guys,
Speaker 2: who has the most gain from an NBA Finals win.
Speaker 2: Let's start with Logan.
Speaker 1: I think both of these guys have a lot to
Speaker 1: gain from an NBA Finals win. Like you said, I
Speaker 1: think a lot of people are gonna wake up if
Speaker 1: Jokic gets this ring done to the fact that he
Speaker 1: is the best player on planet Earth. And I understand,
Speaker 1: I get it. You know, you don't want to crown
Speaker 1: the guy before he gets a championship. I think Jokic
Speaker 1: has been in this conversation for a while, but this
Speaker 1: will finally give him some credence and some real weight.
Speaker 4: To an already really loaded resume.
Speaker 1: I mean this will propel him, I think to one
Speaker 1: of the greatest centers of all time. I think Jimmy
Speaker 1: probably if we're looking at this one to one. I
Speaker 1: don't know how you can't say Jimmy though, I mean
Speaker 1: just looking at what he's had to have gone through
Speaker 1: through these playoffs circumstance wise, you look at not having
Speaker 1: Tyler Hero, I mean a complete lack of offensive creation
Speaker 1: reliably outside of Hero Like, yeah, man, I love the
Speaker 1: depth here. I love all the guys, d Rob Lowry Martin.
Speaker 1: They've played their asses off to this point, including Gabe Vincent.
Speaker 1: But it's like it's it's not a finals caliber roster
Speaker 1: to where of normal caliber. They slid the number one
Speaker 1: seed and who I thought was the best player on
Speaker 1: the planet coming into this, coming into these playoffs, I mean,
Speaker 1: you know, Giannis missed a couple games, but they take
Speaker 1: down the one seeded Bucks and then if Jimmy did
Speaker 1: it again, I think a lot of this rides on
Speaker 1: if Jimmy did this in this series. I mean, you're
Speaker 1: slaying two of the biggest dragons in basketball, and Giannis
Speaker 1: on Tetakumpo and Nicola Jokic at on top of that
Speaker 1: that you already slayed the Boston Celtics, who I just
Speaker 1: think are unequivocally a more talented team.
Speaker 4: This would be the.
Speaker 1: Most shocking finals win of all time. This would be
Speaker 1: the most shocking run to the finals of all time. Like,
Speaker 1: if Jimmy got it done, I think this would just
Speaker 1: mean more than Jokic's ring. Like, don't I don't understand
Speaker 1: what it means for Jokic because I think this propels
Speaker 1: him to being one of the greatest centers of all
Speaker 1: time and people like an undeniable level, finally in a
Speaker 1: level where everyone has to wake up and realize that
Speaker 1: he's one of the greatest center ever. But this is
Speaker 1: one of the most improbable and difficult pass to the
Speaker 1: title of all time. So if Jimmy got it done,
Speaker 1: I think it would mean more he finally gets that
Speaker 1: finals MVP, And we talked about this on our show.
Speaker 1: Carson gave down a list of guys who have similar
Speaker 1: resumes to Jimmy being the number one on two teams
Speaker 1: that went to the finals, being a number one on
Speaker 1: three teams that went to the Eastern or went to
Speaker 1: the conference finals. Excuse me, it's already a short list.
Speaker 1: Getting that ring would really really validate Jimmy and how
Speaker 1: tough of a path it's been, So I think it
Speaker 1: means slightly more for Jimmy. But I always love when
Speaker 1: one when we have a matchup where finally somebody knew
Speaker 1: is getting crowned.
Speaker 3: So it means a lot for both of these guys.
Speaker 1: But if Jimmy were to get it done, I mean
Speaker 1: an eight seed winning of finals on this improbable of
Speaker 1: a run, I think would probably mean a little more.
Speaker 5: It's interesting when you say that it would be the
Speaker 5: most surprising title ever because I'm reflecting on it. This
Speaker 5: is sort of an area of expertise of mine, I
Speaker 5: like to think, and you're probably right because when you
Speaker 5: think about the lower seeds to win it all, you
Speaker 5: have the ninety five Rockets as the sixth seed, right,
Speaker 5: but they were the defending champs.
Speaker 4: They had added Clyde Drexler. Can't put it in this tier.
Speaker 5: You have, for example, the sixty nine Celtics Russells last year.
Speaker 5: They were just a forty eight win team, but they
Speaker 5: had already won ten, so I think you can give
Speaker 5: them the benefit of the doubt. Any seventies champ, there's
Speaker 5: a lot of ones in there who are hovering around
Speaker 5: fifty wins. But that's because it was the greatest era
Speaker 5: of parody. And then this century people will say the
Speaker 5: twenty eleven MAVs, and sure there was obviously a very
Speaker 5: difficult path. They're going through the Thunder and the Lakers
Speaker 5: and the Heat that was a fifty seven win team
Speaker 5: with a top twenty player of all time. You have
Speaker 5: the six Heat who were they were like a fifty
Speaker 5: two win team. They had to beat the sixty four
Speaker 5: win Pistons superhuman d way that was surprising. But this
Speaker 5: is an eight seat that has been down for their
Speaker 5: third most talented player these playoffs and does not have
Speaker 5: that kind of all time talent at the time. So
Speaker 5: I think it's Jimmy two because Jimmy's thirty three years
Speaker 5: old and this is a chance for him, I believe,
Speaker 5: to climb into the top fifty all time, and I
Speaker 5: think he's already knocking on that door.
Speaker 4: I've gone through this on Nerd Sesh.
Speaker 5: But since the ABA NBA merger, he's now one of
Speaker 5: just twenty five guys to be the clear best player
Speaker 5: on three conference finalists and one of just twenty guys
Speaker 5: to be the clear best player on two NBA finalists,
Speaker 5: and he's one of nine guys to average twenty seven,
Speaker 5: six and four on fifty seven percent TRU shooting in
Speaker 5: multiple playoff runs with a minimum of ten games, joining Lebron,
Speaker 5: Katie mj Kawhi, Kareem Jokic, Steph and Larry Bird. So
Speaker 5: Jimmy's playoff resume largely based on these last four years,
Speaker 5: but has to put him in those conversations because of
Speaker 5: the consistency with which the best attributes of his game
Speaker 5: have translated. His physical imposition, his ability to get into
Speaker 5: the lane into those short mid range shots and kill
Speaker 5: you their attack. This matches his playmaking, his defensive dominance.
Speaker 5: All of that has made him a great playoff performer
Speaker 5: in this latter stretch of his career.
Speaker 4: But if you were gonna ask me, well, who's more
Speaker 4: likely to get back?
Speaker 5: I think it has to be the Nuggets, with the
Speaker 5: infrastructure that they have, the level of talent they have,
Speaker 5: their core being younger, and who is it more likely
Speaker 5: that this is, like so far and away, the defining
Speaker 5: thing of their career if they win, it's Jimmy Jokic
Speaker 5: already has the two MVPs He's gonna have plenty more
Speaker 5: cracks at it. Jimmy twenty twenty NBA Finals again put
Speaker 5: himself in special territory. He's one of five guys ever
Speaker 5: to average twenty six point eight assist a game in
Speaker 5: the finals with Magic Steph MJ and who's the last one? Well,
Speaker 5: I forget right now. But anyways, Jimmy continues to put
Speaker 5: himself in these special categories in the playoffs, this would
Speaker 5: be a different level. So I think it's Jimmy, but
Speaker 5: I think Jokic cements himself is a top twenty player
Speaker 5: of all time if they the title too.
Speaker 2: You know, this is a complicated question because I think
Speaker 2: Jokic has an interesting dynamic in terms of what he
Speaker 2: has to lose in this playoff series, this upcoming series,
Speaker 2: like for like, both of them have a lot to
Speaker 2: gain because Jokic is someone that goes from if he
Speaker 2: los like if he wins it, he's the consensus top
Speaker 2: player in the league, and that obviously is a huge accomplishment.
Speaker 2: Jimmy Butler, even if he wins, is not going to
Speaker 2: be considered the best player in the league. He uh
Speaker 2: to me, Jimmy, Jimmy is a really interesting player in
Speaker 2: NBA history, because like he never really has been on
Speaker 2: that grade of a team, and he's consistently playing in
Speaker 2: these late playoff rounds, in these huge games, in a
Speaker 2: massive talent disadvantage, you know, and so like in a
Speaker 2: weird way, like I actually like Jimmy kind of is
Speaker 2: going to be regarded the way he's regarded regardless of
Speaker 2: what happens, which is the dude who never was considered
Speaker 2: like that true foundational superstar because he never was consistently
Speaker 2: great enough in the regular season, but when it comes
Speaker 2: to this level of NBA playoff basketball, he's on short lists.
Speaker 2: Like what Carson was saying it is, there's no doubt
Speaker 2: though that Jokic has the most to lose, and I
Speaker 2: don't expect him to lose for the record, I mean,
Speaker 2: I picked him in six, but I could see a
Speaker 2: sweep potentially happening here. And I also have just no
Speaker 2: doubt at all whatsoever that he's gonna play great.
Speaker 3: Like it it's like the stay.
Speaker 2: It's it reminds me of prime Lebron James, where it's
Speaker 2: like he's just because he thrives so much as a
Speaker 2: playmaker and making shots close to the rim, which by
Speaker 2: the way, is exactly why Lebron was so consistently great
Speaker 2: over the years. That's what makes me consistently great playoff
Speaker 2: player like he is. Two foundational tenets of his game
Speaker 2: are not dependent on night to night shot result, and
Speaker 2: so he can bring a level of consistent positive impact.
Speaker 2: That said, obviously, if the Heat somehow find a way
Speaker 2: to steal the series, it's not a good look and
Speaker 2: it would probably require a disaster of a defensive performance
Speaker 2: from him. So he certainly has the most to lose.
Speaker 2: But I mean, here's the thing. As far as I'm
Speaker 2: concerned with Jimmy Butler, he will always be regarded the
Speaker 2: way that he's regarded now, regardless of what happens, because
Speaker 2: of the simple fact that, like everyone knows he's that
Speaker 2: guy that like, it doesn't matter who's on his team,
Speaker 2: it doesn't matter what his regular season record is. When
Speaker 2: you have to see him for seven games, it's going
Speaker 2: to be a royal pain in the ass. And that's
Speaker 2: kind of like that would be the best way that
Speaker 2: I'd break it down to my children one day if
Speaker 2: they were like, Hey, who the hell is Jimmy Butler?
Speaker 2: Why do we care about him? When he fairly when
Speaker 2: he didn't average what Lebron averaged or whatever. You know,
Speaker 2: that's what we're gonna say. So all right, I said
Speaker 2: nuggets and six. Let's get picks from you guys. Let's
Speaker 2: start with Let's start with Carson. Who do you pick
Speaker 2: in this series? In how many games?
Speaker 5: I'm taking nuggets in five. I think that having the
Speaker 5: best player alive and the best offense at the best
Speaker 5: offense has proven to be insurmountable for everybody they've faced
Speaker 5: so far. And I think it's the incredible offensive variety.
Speaker 5: We talk about it in every phase, great transition offense,
Speaker 5: dominant pick and roll offense, so good at creating looks
Speaker 5: for guys with handoffs. With the level of shooting they
Speaker 5: have and the level of screening from Yokic, it just
Speaker 5: doesn't stop with them. I do think their size advantage matters.
Speaker 5: Aaron Gordon's gonna have mismatches to attack. Again, they don't
Speaker 5: have the kind of bodies to throw at Yokic. MPJ
Speaker 5: is going to be getting a lot of relatively uncontested
Speaker 5: looks just by rising up a guy who's five inches
Speaker 5: taller than who's going to have to be on him.
Speaker 5: And again, Denver's not susceptible to the kind of lapses
Speaker 5: that everybody else Miami has played. Is they have the
Speaker 5: highest floor in the NBA. Jokic as a player has
Speaker 5: the highest floor in the NBA for the exact reasons
Speaker 5: that you just laid out. Jason and Denver's got home
Speaker 5: court the most significant home court advantage in the league.
Speaker 5: They're thirty nine and four there when Yokic plays this year.
Speaker 5: I just think they are better, and I think having
Speaker 5: the best offense in the league, and I think an
Speaker 5: all time great offense is the driving factor there. They
Speaker 5: have an ir offensive rating right now over one nineteen
Speaker 5: than any champion in NBA history, and that number has
Speaker 5: been incredibly high in every matchup so far in these playoffs.
Speaker 5: They just keep getting it done. It was higher as
Speaker 5: the Lakers. It was one twenty two against the Lakers.
Speaker 5: Like It's just ridiculous. So all due respect to the Heat,
Speaker 5: I love Jimmy, they have proven me wrong over and
Speaker 5: over again in this playoff run. I have consistently underestimated
Speaker 5: their ability to dominate so convincingly in coaching and execution
Speaker 5: and Jimmy being the best player on the floor that
Speaker 5: they have pulled off these upsets. I do think that
Speaker 5: that ends here, though.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I also wanted to pick the Nuggets sweep. Bejones
Speaker 3: to call that one.
Speaker 1: I just Jimmy's proven me wrong a few too many
Speaker 1: times for me to convincingly say that he's not going
Speaker 1: to get a game.
Speaker 3: But I think you're exactly right. Guys.
Speaker 1: You talk about the historic offense. The Nuggets have an
Speaker 1: offensive rating of nearly one twenty per hundred possessions. It's
Speaker 1: the highest offensive rating through the conference finals before an
Speaker 1: NBA Finals since the twenty seventeen Cavs. I mean they
Speaker 1: are a special, special offense led by Jokichen Murray. Like
Speaker 1: I just think for the Heat to win this, it
Speaker 1: would take an uncharacteristically bad series from Denver in every
Speaker 1: facet of the game and all of the categories that
Speaker 1: Miami has won up to this. The Hustle plays the
Speaker 1: outlier shooting, and I don't even know if we can
Speaker 1: say it's really an outlier. They're a thirty nine percent
Speaker 1: team from deep, but I think it would take a
Speaker 1: superhuman effort from Jimmy.
Speaker 3: I would think it takes this.
Speaker 1: Team shooting over forty percent from deep on the whole
Speaker 1: not taking game off, winning all the hustle plays, protecting
Speaker 1: the rock every game. Like, I just think it would
Speaker 1: take the Heat playing at a all time high, and
Speaker 1: I think it would take the Nuggets just lapsing in
Speaker 1: areas that they haven't lapsed this entire season. So yeah,
Speaker 1: what's the new story, guys? I think the Miami heater
Speaker 1: a little overwhelmed in this matchup. Maybe I'll be wrong again,
Speaker 1: but I again think the Miami Heat are drastically out talented, overwhelmed,
Speaker 1: and I don't think they can schematically scheme up anything
Speaker 1: to give them an advantage.
Speaker 3: So yeah, I'm going Denver in five.
Speaker 1: And if Jimmy hadn't been doing this, I'd probably take
Speaker 1: on the full logic side Denver to sweep.
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's interesting, the logan, the way you broke it
Speaker 2: down is perfect. The all of the specific ways that
Speaker 2: Miami's been winning are things that specifically will not work
Speaker 2: against Denver, and that's what makes me worry about his sweep.
Speaker 2: And again, like, you just know Miami's going to find
Speaker 2: a way to compete in some of these games, but
Speaker 2: it's just I could see it any sooner than later
Speaker 2: as well.
Speaker 4: All Right, guys. So here's the deal.
Speaker 2: My guess is we might see you guys at some
Speaker 2: point over the course of the series if it gets interesting,
Speaker 2: if it's a sweep, maybe not. But I think the
Speaker 2: day after I get back from Montana is the Draft.
Speaker 2: I would imagine that at the very least, I'll see
Speaker 2: you guys for some draft content on the day of
Speaker 2: Always fun chopping it up up and talking basketball with
Speaker 2: you boys. I appreciate it as always. To the listeners,
Speaker 2: as always, we appreciate you guys. We will be back
Speaker 2: tomorrow night after the final buzzer of Game one of
Speaker 2: the NBA Finals to break it all down. I'm sure
Speaker 2: the Nerd Sash guys will as well. We appreciate you, guys,
Speaker 2: and we'll see you tomorrow.
Speaker 1: The volume