WEBVTT - 0522 BWD Podcast FINAL

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio News.

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<v Speaker 2>This is Bloomberg Business Week Daily reporting from the magazine

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<v Speaker 2>that helps global leaders stay ahead with insight on the people, companies,

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<v Speaker 2>and trends shaping today's complex economy. Plus global business finance

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<v Speaker 2>and tech news as it happens. The Bloomberg Business Weekdaily

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<v Speaker 2>Podcast with Carol Masser and Tim Steneveek on Bloomberg Radio.

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<v Speaker 3>Our most read story on the Bloomberg at this hour

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<v Speaker 3>has to do with the Trump administration telling Harvard University

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<v Speaker 3>it cannot enroll international students, so no doubt about it

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<v Speaker 3>delivering a major blow to the.

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<v Speaker 4>School after the government, you might recall.

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<v Speaker 3>Also had frozen billions of dollars of federal funding and

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<v Speaker 3>really escalating a fight that we are seeing between the

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<v Speaker 3>United States and Harvard and other elite colleges. Colleges, but

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<v Speaker 3>really kind of taking this to a whole other level.

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<v Speaker 5>Tip we got Kleimashinkska, team leader for DC Breaking News,

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<v Speaker 5>joining us from our Washington DC bureau. Carol read the

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<v Speaker 5>headlines at Kassia, But I'm wondering about sort of we

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<v Speaker 5>were seeing the reaction, we're seeing the interest. Everybody's talking

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<v Speaker 5>about this story, right now, is this the type of

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<v Speaker 5>thing that is going to get legal pushback, our lawyers

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<v Speaker 5>already working on this to try to prevent this from happening.

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<v Speaker 5>Or can the administration actually make Harvard do this?

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<v Speaker 6>Yeah? Great questions, Thank you for having me. Indeed just

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<v Speaker 6>currently them all throughout the story on the terminal and

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<v Speaker 6>really a surprising new development and major escalation where the

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<v Speaker 6>Trump administration is basically telling Harvard they cannot all international students.

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<v Speaker 6>Not only that, but also the current the currently erals

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<v Speaker 6>foreign students have to transfer or they will lose their

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<v Speaker 6>legal statute. Harvard has already responded on the saying that

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<v Speaker 6>they will that they will fight it, that they obviously

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<v Speaker 6>don't agree with this decision, So there will be definitely

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<v Speaker 6>more to come.

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<v Speaker 3>You know what's interesting, Casia Like, it's you know, we've

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<v Speaker 3>been seeing all of this play out, and I feel

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<v Speaker 3>like universities have been trying to figure out what's the

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<v Speaker 3>right balance in terms of dealing with the administration over it.

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<v Speaker 3>I feel like money trumps everything, and financially we are

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<v Speaker 3>continuing to see.

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<v Speaker 4>Impacts on universities.

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<v Speaker 3>Because of what the administration is doing pulling federal funding.

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<v Speaker 4>But I look at Harvard I mean, we.

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<v Speaker 3>Keep reading the statistic, almost sixty eight hundred students at Harvard,

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<v Speaker 3>twenty seven percent of the entire student body come from

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<v Speaker 3>other countries. That's up from just under twenty percent back

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<v Speaker 3>in two thousand and six. This is looking at the

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<v Speaker 3>university's data. I mean, this becomes a bigger and bigger

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<v Speaker 3>financial blow to the university. And you do wonder at

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<v Speaker 3>this point do universities in general, Harvard included, you know,

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<v Speaker 3>are going to fight back even harder because this is

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<v Speaker 3>about money.

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<v Speaker 4>It comes down to also in terms of principles.

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<v Speaker 6>Yeah, exactly. So this is more than a quarter of

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<v Speaker 6>all their students. I think it's also interesting that this

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<v Speaker 6>is the Department of Homeland Security involved them. The statement

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<v Speaker 6>your this hour came from the DHS, which was as

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<v Speaker 6>citing right, the protests, the fact that they blamed the

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<v Speaker 6>Harvard leadersh for not being able to keep its campus

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<v Speaker 6>basically safe and putting some students at through it.

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<v Speaker 5>Yeah, I'm thinking about all the Harvard alumni in Congress

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<v Speaker 5>right now. Harvard Law actually has an article on their

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<v Speaker 5>website post election touting the fact that all Harvard Law

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<v Speaker 5>alumni running for reelection to Congress won their races. Well,

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<v Speaker 5>five more alumni vied to join their ranks. They talked

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<v Speaker 5>about incumbents in the US House of Representatives. They also

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<v Speaker 5>talked about Republican Ted Cruz Tim Kaine who were re

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<v Speaker 5>elected to the Senate, in addition to other alumni from

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<v Speaker 5>Harvard Law School. Have we heard anything yet at this

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<v Speaker 5>point from either Democrats or Republicans who were alums of

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<v Speaker 5>Harvard University at least Stephonic for example, who's been very

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<v Speaker 5>critical of the school. Republican member from New York House,

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<v Speaker 5>have we heard anything from them since this came out.

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<v Speaker 6>You know, it came out less than an hour ago,

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<v Speaker 6>so I haven't seen anything here yet. On the breaking

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<v Speaker 6>news desk, you might. You know, it's not only people

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<v Speaker 6>in Congress, it's also major donors right on both sides.

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<v Speaker 6>So I'm sure this story will continue to escalate.

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<v Speaker 3>Talk a little bit more about this coming from the

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<v Speaker 3>Department of Homeland Security, Like, it's just interesting, it's kind

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<v Speaker 3>of playing into kind of the safety element, right, We've

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<v Speaker 3>seen this kind of being used, I feel like in

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<v Speaker 3>terms of security reasons. We've seen this with immigration in general.

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<v Speaker 3>Like I just that thinking and philosophy that continues to

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<v Speaker 3>come from the administration again that I guess will also

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<v Speaker 3>be discussed in any kind of legal arguments.

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<v Speaker 6>Yes, this timing is really interesting and really strange, you know,

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<v Speaker 6>given what happened here in DC overnight as well, and

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<v Speaker 6>the statement actually specifically sites Jewish students. It's also a

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<v Speaker 6>kind of woo you that the statement landed just after

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<v Speaker 6>online let it finish her briefing, so that kind of

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<v Speaker 6>didn't allow us to ask her more questions, even though

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<v Speaker 6>obviously must have been aware of it happening, because apparently

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<v Speaker 6>there were some papers going back and forth between the

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<v Speaker 6>Trauma administration and the school for several days or even

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<v Speaker 6>weeks now. So Yes, this is definitely an interesting timing

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<v Speaker 6>for this announcement.

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<v Speaker 5>Yeah, I'm also thinking, and i know you're covering breaking news,

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<v Speaker 5>but I'm also thinking about just the educational impact of

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<v Speaker 5>a move such as this. Given the numbers that Carol mentioned,

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<v Speaker 5>thousands of students there, close to thirty percent of the

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<v Speaker 5>entire student body, this is the type of thing that

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<v Speaker 5>could potentially wreak havoc on a university's finances, but also

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<v Speaker 5>in such a short period of time where ostensibly acceptance

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<v Speaker 5>letters have already been mailed out we understand the yield

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<v Speaker 5>of the class coming in the timing of this is

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<v Speaker 5>pretty is pretty wild.

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<v Speaker 6>Yes, it's really strength and difficult. It's not only about

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<v Speaker 6>the new students but also existing students who will have

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<v Speaker 6>to transfer or lose their legals tables that me insluding

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<v Speaker 6>their visa, possibly being forced to go back home. Yes,

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<v Speaker 6>and it's not only about the finances, right, but also

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<v Speaker 6>about the diversity of the campus. I mean, we know

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<v Speaker 6>that the school has been previously attacked for their diversity efforts,

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<v Speaker 6>so there's also addresses that issue of the diversity of

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<v Speaker 6>the student body.

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<v Speaker 4>Cassie, one last question.

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<v Speaker 3>You know, it's interesting that it feels like Harvard is

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<v Speaker 3>being attacked big time. We've seen it also with Columbia

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<v Speaker 3>and some other schools, but it does feel like makes

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<v Speaker 3>me wonder like who didn't get into Harvard and the

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<v Speaker 3>administration that's like so angry. But I know it's a bigger,

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<v Speaker 3>broader story. Having said that, should we assume that other

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<v Speaker 3>schools will be targeted in a similar way as hard

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<v Speaker 3>as Harvard is.

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<v Speaker 6>Being so I think this is what is very surprising

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<v Speaker 6>about this news, right, that it singles out this one's

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<v Speaker 6>school and goes after its leadership. So I think we

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<v Speaker 6>have to see we have you to find out whether

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<v Speaker 6>the DHS will go after other schools as well.

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<v Speaker 3>Yeah, fascinating and uh, you know, just I think it's

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<v Speaker 3>safe to say many would would characterize it that way.

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<v Speaker 3>Cassia clemschinks she's team leader for DC Breaking News, joining

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<v Speaker 3>us from our DC News bureau.

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<v Speaker 2>You're listening to the Bloomberg Business Weekdaily podcast. Catch us

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<v Speaker 2>live weekday afternoons from two to five pm Eastern. Listen

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<v Speaker 2>on Applecarplay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app,

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<v Speaker 2>or watch us live on YouTube.

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<v Speaker 5>Well, let's talk a little bit about today's big take.

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<v Speaker 5>Carol Masser, I couldn't get enough of this and the

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<v Speaker 5>illustrations that are included in it. Max Abelson joins us

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<v Speaker 5>now he's Bloomberg News, a finance reporter, whether it's geopolitics, trades, tariffs,

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<v Speaker 5>or on more more personal level real estate, crypto corporate ventures.

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<v Speaker 5>Some say this second term of President Donald Trump is

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<v Speaker 5>all about the art of the deal. Some of the actions, though,

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<v Speaker 5>have raised ethical questions that have been addressed by White

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<v Speaker 5>House Press Secretary Caroline Lovitt, including earlier this month.

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<v Speaker 7>The president is abiding by all conflict of interest laws.

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<v Speaker 7>The President has been incredibly transparent with his own personal

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<v Speaker 7>financial obligation throughout the years. The President is a successful businessman,

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<v Speaker 7>and I think, frankly, it's one of the many reasons

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<v Speaker 7>that people re elected him back to this office. Look,

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<v Speaker 7>I can assure you the President acts with only the

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<v Speaker 7>interests of the American public in mind, putting our country

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<v Speaker 7>first and doing what's best for our country full stop.

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<v Speaker 7>That's his intention, and that's what he's focused on.

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<v Speaker 5>Well, today, the Bloomberg Big Take is focused on how

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<v Speaker 5>since the early days of the reelection campaign, President Trump

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<v Speaker 5>has more than doubled his net worth carol to about

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<v Speaker 5>five point four billion dollars.

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<v Speaker 3>All right, we want to get into this and with

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<v Speaker 3>us to who has written this Bloomberg Big Take. It

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<v Speaker 3>is one of the most read and it is a

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<v Speaker 3>must read. It has been deemed so by our Bloomberg

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<v Speaker 3>editorial team. Max Abelson and Andy Massa wrote the story.

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<v Speaker 3>Joining us right now is Bloomberg News Finance reporter Max

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<v Speaker 3>Abelson right here in studio. It's pretty incredible because you

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<v Speaker 3>guys have really laid out all that's been going on

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<v Speaker 3>in terms of business activity for the President. We should

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<v Speaker 3>just you know, we just heard from Caroline Levitt, who

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<v Speaker 3>has been asked about this at some of the press conferences,

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<v Speaker 3>the daily White House press conferences, and she says, the

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<v Speaker 3>president abiding by all conflicts of interest of laws, incredibly

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<v Speaker 3>transparent and so on and so forth. But it does

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<v Speaker 3>beg a lot of questions tell us about how you

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<v Speaker 3>approach this, because.

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<v Speaker 4>There's been a lot of stuff going on.

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<v Speaker 1>I would love to you I'm going to say something

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<v Speaker 1>about our project, and I'm going to say something like

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<v Speaker 1>this is basically the opposite of it. But you'll see

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<v Speaker 1>what I mean. Our project is really about being able

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<v Speaker 1>to step back and to say in concrete terms, factual terms,

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<v Speaker 1>clear terms, what is happening here when a president is

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<v Speaker 1>doing more than anyone in modern American history that we

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<v Speaker 1>can tell any other president in modern America to position

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<v Speaker 1>his family to make an astounding amount of money while

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<v Speaker 1>in the White House. And when I say astounding, what

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<v Speaker 1>we're talking about is not in the millions or in

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<v Speaker 1>the hundred of millions. What we're talking about is deals

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<v Speaker 1>that are in the billions. Whether we're talking about the

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<v Speaker 1>Trump n empowering I think more than ten bills million

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<v Speaker 1>dollars worth of real estate projects, the trump Na empowering

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<v Speaker 1>billions of dollars of value for a social media company

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<v Speaker 1>which which only went public last year, you know, hundreds

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<v Speaker 1>of millions of dollars of crypto. And then and then

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<v Speaker 1>I told her I was going to say something that

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<v Speaker 1>was the opposite of this, that this is this is

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<v Speaker 1>what I want to say. As I was walking here

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<v Speaker 1>from my desk in the newsroom, just on the other

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<v Speaker 1>side of this floor to our radio studio, I saw

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<v Speaker 1>that the United States government, the Trumpet administration, told Harvard

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<v Speaker 1>University right that that it can't enroll international students and

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<v Speaker 1>that and that existing foreign students are going to have

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<v Speaker 1>to transfer or lose their legal status. And you know,

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<v Speaker 1>for me personally, news like that, which I find comes

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<v Speaker 1>basically every week, maybe sometimes every day, just these really

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<v Speaker 1>things that I had never contemplated or never heard of.

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<v Speaker 1>That there has been so much tumult in the last

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<v Speaker 1>few months, so many things going on, tariffs alone, the

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<v Speaker 1>stock market alone, the economy alone, that it is so

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<v Speaker 1>easy to forget that what is happening on the Trump

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<v Speaker 1>business side is really important too.

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<v Speaker 8>So what Ann and I we're trying to do.

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<v Speaker 1>We try to just forget about politics, and forget about policy,

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<v Speaker 1>forget about things like Harvard, and just really focus on

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<v Speaker 1>the Trump money making machine.

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<v Speaker 4>Can I say?

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<v Speaker 3>There are folks that come in and say, you know,

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<v Speaker 3>we're all kind of chasing the stuff that is coming

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<v Speaker 3>out of the White House, and the question often arises

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<v Speaker 3>of like, well, wait, what are we missing?

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<v Speaker 4>What is going on that.

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<v Speaker 3>Maybe isn't in the headline, or what the administration is

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<v Speaker 3>talking about or the president's team. So take it away

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<v Speaker 3>because you guys did some really deep reporting.

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<v Speaker 1>That is what we tried to do, so Annie Massa

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<v Speaker 1>and I with help from many editors. I want to

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<v Speaker 1>mention David Shear, who really made this happen. What we

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<v Speaker 1>tried to focus on is that compared to all that

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<v Speaker 1>tumult that I just mentioned, all the Harvard news and

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<v Speaker 1>the comings and goings, compared to that, there's something very

0:11:51.240 --> 0:11:54.559
<v Speaker 1>clear about the Trump empire, which is that it's approach,

0:11:55.080 --> 0:11:59.120
<v Speaker 1>and our timeline is since the reelection campaign began. Everything

0:11:59.120 --> 0:12:01.800
<v Speaker 1>that we're talking about here is after he announced his reelection.

0:12:02.360 --> 0:12:03.280
<v Speaker 8>The approach is clear.

0:12:03.960 --> 0:12:07.840
<v Speaker 1>The Trumps are selling that family name, and they're doing

0:12:07.920 --> 0:12:11.280
<v Speaker 1>it at a scale that I really do think could

0:12:11.320 --> 0:12:13.440
<v Speaker 1>could very well be the story of the day, the

0:12:13.480 --> 0:12:15.800
<v Speaker 1>story of the year, if it weren't for all these

0:12:15.800 --> 0:12:19.760
<v Speaker 1>things happening. You know, we see, we see the Trumps

0:12:20.559 --> 0:12:23.600
<v Speaker 1>going and doing things they simply did not do in

0:12:23.640 --> 0:12:25.160
<v Speaker 1>the last term when they.

0:12:25.000 --> 0:12:26.920
<v Speaker 8>Said no to no new foreign deals.

0:12:27.040 --> 0:12:29.360
<v Speaker 1>In the first administration, we were not talking about new

0:12:29.360 --> 0:12:32.800
<v Speaker 1>foreign deals and last of administration really because Trump essentially

0:12:32.840 --> 0:12:36.160
<v Speaker 1>said that they wouldn't happen. Now, you know, you basically

0:12:36.200 --> 0:12:38.760
<v Speaker 1>have to take out your globe because Annie and I traveled,

0:12:38.800 --> 0:12:44.520
<v Speaker 1>you know, journalistically speaking to Cutter, India, Vietnam, the United

0:12:44.559 --> 0:12:48.360
<v Speaker 1>Arab Emirates, the United States is involved too, and at

0:12:48.400 --> 0:12:51.720
<v Speaker 1>each point they're doing really interesting things. They're built, they're

0:12:51.720 --> 0:12:55.120
<v Speaker 1>they're they're licensing their name to really big projects, hundreds

0:12:55.160 --> 0:12:57.240
<v Speaker 1>of millions of dollars if not billions of dollars worth

0:12:57.280 --> 0:13:01.400
<v Speaker 1>worth of projects. And sometimes not all time, sometimes something

0:13:01.720 --> 0:13:04.720
<v Speaker 1>very important is happening, which is that the deal includes

0:13:05.120 --> 0:13:09.280
<v Speaker 1>arms of governments. I'm talking about you know, it may

0:13:09.280 --> 0:13:12.400
<v Speaker 1>not be the Trump administration, it may not be the

0:13:12.440 --> 0:13:14.840
<v Speaker 1>Trump family, I should say, signing a deal with a government,

0:13:15.080 --> 0:13:19.120
<v Speaker 1>but governments are involved, and that rubs up against what

0:13:19.160 --> 0:13:21.559
<v Speaker 1>Trump said would not happen this term. When Trump said

0:13:21.600 --> 0:13:23.480
<v Speaker 1>there would not be new deals with foreign.

0:13:23.280 --> 0:13:25.560
<v Speaker 4>Governments, governments involved, government money involved.

0:13:25.880 --> 0:13:29.680
<v Speaker 1>What we're really talking about is things like let's say

0:13:29.920 --> 0:13:35.400
<v Speaker 1>in Oman, for example, they announced when they when they

0:13:35.480 --> 0:13:38.920
<v Speaker 1>announced that deal, they announced as a partner the Umran Group,

0:13:39.320 --> 0:13:43.400
<v Speaker 1>and that is essentially as it's a think of it

0:13:43.400 --> 0:13:45.840
<v Speaker 1>as a state owned tourism group and they're going to

0:13:45.840 --> 0:13:48.560
<v Speaker 1>be involved in that deal. Listen, let me let me

0:13:48.720 --> 0:13:52.120
<v Speaker 1>point out that the Vietnamese I believe he's a prime minister.

0:13:52.160 --> 0:13:54.480
<v Speaker 1>He may be the president, but the head, one extremely

0:13:54.520 --> 0:13:58.320
<v Speaker 1>important figure in Vietnam met with basically the financial representative

0:13:58.400 --> 0:14:01.200
<v Speaker 1>representative on the Trump on the on the new Trump

0:14:01.240 --> 0:14:02.240
<v Speaker 1>project in Vietnam.

0:14:02.679 --> 0:14:03.480
<v Speaker 8>That is what we.

0:14:03.440 --> 0:14:05.760
<v Speaker 1>Mean when we say that these things are very big,

0:14:06.040 --> 0:14:10.560
<v Speaker 1>They're potentially very lucrative, and a lot are happening right now.

0:14:10.640 --> 0:14:13.280
<v Speaker 5>Max real Estate is just one piece of the puzzle here.

0:14:13.280 --> 0:14:15.520
<v Speaker 5>It's certainly a global piece of the puzzle. The crypto

0:14:15.679 --> 0:14:18.600
<v Speaker 5>story is included in here as well. You talk about

0:14:18.640 --> 0:14:22.680
<v Speaker 5>world liberty, financial the Trump and Millenia mean coins as well.

0:14:23.000 --> 0:14:24.920
<v Speaker 5>I want to focus a little bit on the corporate

0:14:24.960 --> 0:14:27.080
<v Speaker 5>side of things. I think that gets a lot I

0:14:27.160 --> 0:14:29.480
<v Speaker 5>think that gets a lot less attention than everything else. Right,

0:14:29.640 --> 0:14:31.560
<v Speaker 5>there was a lot in here that I had never

0:14:32.000 --> 0:14:34.840
<v Speaker 5>even heard of when it came to Trump family connections.

0:14:34.920 --> 0:14:37.600
<v Speaker 5>Grab a gun for example. Talk a little bit about

0:14:37.600 --> 0:14:39.760
<v Speaker 5>the corporate connections and what you Annie and the team

0:14:39.800 --> 0:14:40.480
<v Speaker 5>uncovered here.

0:14:40.600 --> 0:14:43.480
<v Speaker 1>I really admire any Master's ability to put her finger

0:14:43.560 --> 0:14:45.680
<v Speaker 1>on these on these corporate connections, the things that I

0:14:45.720 --> 0:14:48.240
<v Speaker 1>hadn't heard of. I mean, you know, it's it's I

0:14:48.240 --> 0:14:50.000
<v Speaker 1>think it's actually helpful to put crypto off to the

0:14:50.040 --> 0:14:51.840
<v Speaker 1>side because it can it gets so much attention. I

0:14:51.880 --> 0:14:54.720
<v Speaker 1>mean literally, tonight, Trump is scheduled to meet with the

0:14:54.760 --> 0:14:56.640
<v Speaker 1>top holders right of one of his one of his

0:14:56.640 --> 0:14:59.160
<v Speaker 1>crypto projects. I think it's the mean coin. But then

0:14:59.480 --> 0:15:01.240
<v Speaker 1>you know, so that that gets all the attention. But

0:15:01.320 --> 0:15:05.520
<v Speaker 1>then you see something like seventeen eighty nine Capital Donald

0:15:05.560 --> 0:15:08.640
<v Speaker 1>Trump Junior join. I think he became a partner at

0:15:08.640 --> 0:15:11.840
<v Speaker 1>seventeen eighty nine, like a matter of days after the election.

0:15:11.960 --> 0:15:13.760
<v Speaker 1>I think it was less than a week after the election.

0:15:14.080 --> 0:15:16.400
<v Speaker 1>And that's that's a group that you know, Rebecca Mercer,

0:15:16.440 --> 0:15:18.960
<v Speaker 1>if you remember the Mercer name, it was a really

0:15:19.080 --> 0:15:22.960
<v Speaker 1>that is a really important Republican mega mega donor, and

0:15:23.440 --> 0:15:25.880
<v Speaker 1>what they're basically doing. The way to think about it

0:15:25.960 --> 0:15:29.280
<v Speaker 1>is they're essentially monetizing the kind of Trumpian vision for

0:15:29.400 --> 0:15:33.360
<v Speaker 1>US culture by taking stakes in you know, things like

0:15:33.360 --> 0:15:35.080
<v Speaker 1>the Enhanced Games. I don't know if you've heard of that.

0:15:35.120 --> 0:15:37.400
<v Speaker 1>Basically it's been nicknamed the steroid Olympics.

0:15:37.720 --> 0:15:40.080
<v Speaker 5>Yeah, I've heard of these, you know. But you can

0:15:40.160 --> 0:15:42.440
<v Speaker 5>athletes who can sort of they're not drug tested. You

0:15:42.480 --> 0:15:43.320
<v Speaker 5>can do whatever you want.

0:15:43.360 --> 0:15:44.840
<v Speaker 8>And then that's right, that's right, listener.

0:15:45.320 --> 0:15:47.120
<v Speaker 1>Listeners can't really see me right now, but I'm like

0:15:47.240 --> 0:15:50.200
<v Speaker 1>extremely jacked and steroidal.

0:15:49.760 --> 0:15:53.280
<v Speaker 5>You know, lanning, that's exact purpose.

0:15:53.440 --> 0:15:55.120
<v Speaker 8>I'm going to fight in the inn assterial Olympics.

0:15:55.120 --> 0:15:57.280
<v Speaker 2>That's right, you know.

0:15:57.440 --> 0:15:59.800
<v Speaker 1>But the list goes on and on there. It's almost

0:16:00.200 --> 0:16:02.120
<v Speaker 1>much to mention on just one interview. I want to

0:16:02.160 --> 0:16:05.080
<v Speaker 1>give a shout out to Unusual Machines, which is such

0:16:05.080 --> 0:16:06.400
<v Speaker 1>a drone component maker.

0:16:07.080 --> 0:16:10.000
<v Speaker 8>You know. When this is how powerful the Trump name is.

0:16:11.680 --> 0:16:15.200
<v Speaker 1>When Donald Trump Junior's role was announced in by the way,

0:16:15.240 --> 0:16:18.480
<v Speaker 1>in November November twenty twenty four, right again on the money,

0:16:19.160 --> 0:16:22.640
<v Speaker 1>the stock popped basically two hundred and fifty percent, maybe

0:16:22.800 --> 0:16:24.360
<v Speaker 1>just shy of two hundred and fifty percent in like

0:16:24.440 --> 0:16:26.280
<v Speaker 1>the two days, two trading days that followed.

0:16:26.800 --> 0:16:27.480
<v Speaker 8>That is power.

0:16:27.560 --> 0:16:30.320
<v Speaker 1>I tell people that my beat here is money and power.

0:16:30.840 --> 0:16:33.400
<v Speaker 1>That is money and power, and it just keeps going.

0:16:33.440 --> 0:16:35.400
<v Speaker 1>There's you know, have you ever heard of PSQ Holdings?

0:16:35.480 --> 0:16:36.280
<v Speaker 1>Do you a public square?

0:16:36.440 --> 0:16:36.840
<v Speaker 9>Now I have?

0:16:37.400 --> 0:16:39.800
<v Speaker 5>This is the anti woke ye. This is the anti

0:16:39.840 --> 0:16:42.720
<v Speaker 5>woke marketplace where you can go and buy items such

0:16:42.720 --> 0:16:44.760
<v Speaker 5>as these pro life diapers that you guys highlight in

0:16:44.800 --> 0:16:45.040
<v Speaker 5>the piece.

0:16:45.160 --> 0:16:45.280
<v Speaker 8>YEP.

0:16:45.320 --> 0:16:47.840
<v Speaker 1>I want to thank Michael Seffert, the CEO who gave

0:16:47.920 --> 0:16:49.520
<v Speaker 1>us a comment. He said that Trump Junior is an

0:16:49.520 --> 0:16:54.560
<v Speaker 1>incredible businessman, GJI partner and marketing expert and in other words,

0:16:54.640 --> 0:16:56.080
<v Speaker 1>in other words, what he's saying is that we want

0:16:56.120 --> 0:16:59.160
<v Speaker 1>Trump Junior for his mind, not necessarily for anything else.

0:16:59.520 --> 0:17:01.320
<v Speaker 1>But that's a good example of like, you know what,

0:17:01.520 --> 0:17:04.280
<v Speaker 1>three million dollars more. That was Trump Junior's twenty twenty

0:17:04.280 --> 0:17:07.320
<v Speaker 1>four compensation we found for PSQ and his board role

0:17:07.400 --> 0:17:11.520
<v Speaker 1>was announced once again December December of twenty twenty four.

0:17:11.880 --> 0:17:12.600
<v Speaker 8>It keeps on going.

0:17:12.640 --> 0:17:16.280
<v Speaker 1>There's Dominari, which listeners should should read any mass a separate.

0:17:16.040 --> 0:17:17.040
<v Speaker 8>Story on Donor.

0:17:17.280 --> 0:17:20.480
<v Speaker 1>We talked and We're fascinating, have you you know, do

0:17:20.520 --> 0:17:24.320
<v Speaker 1>you know the the idea of like basically events contract.

0:17:24.520 --> 0:17:27.439
<v Speaker 5>Yeah, we interviewed the call She founders when they launched

0:17:27.520 --> 0:17:27.920
<v Speaker 5>years ago.

0:17:28.200 --> 0:17:28.520
<v Speaker 8>Kyle She.

0:17:28.840 --> 0:17:32.920
<v Speaker 1>I mean that role was announced January January, and that's

0:17:32.960 --> 0:17:35.399
<v Speaker 1>Donald Trump junior again Eric Trump. I don't want to

0:17:35.600 --> 0:17:37.720
<v Speaker 1>overshadow Eric Trump. Eric Trump is also involved in some

0:17:37.800 --> 0:17:40.359
<v Speaker 1>of these stuff. But it's but when you're talking about

0:17:40.720 --> 0:17:44.680
<v Speaker 1>grab a gun, for example, that's yet again, Donald Trump Junior.

0:17:44.960 --> 0:17:45.960
<v Speaker 8>It's yet again.

0:17:46.400 --> 0:17:49.119
<v Speaker 1>It's's essentially the last few weeks, it's yet again at

0:17:49.200 --> 0:17:52.639
<v Speaker 1>least three million dollars. And it's you know, for for

0:17:52.840 --> 0:17:56.120
<v Speaker 1>listeners who I think that I'm especially interested in talking

0:17:56.160 --> 0:17:58.399
<v Speaker 1>to listeners who sort of their minds aren't made up.

0:17:58.440 --> 0:17:58.560
<v Speaker 1>You know.

0:17:58.600 --> 0:18:00.600
<v Speaker 8>I don't think there's much.

0:18:00.560 --> 0:18:03.600
<v Speaker 1>To do as a journalist for readers and listeners who

0:18:03.720 --> 0:18:05.800
<v Speaker 1>just know that they despise Donald Trump, or that they

0:18:05.920 --> 0:18:09.280
<v Speaker 1>know that they adore Donald Trump. I'm interested not in

0:18:09.440 --> 0:18:12.600
<v Speaker 1>pandering to like this someone who has their mind made

0:18:12.680 --> 0:18:15.040
<v Speaker 1>up already. I'm really interested in just like focusing on

0:18:15.119 --> 0:18:17.600
<v Speaker 1>the numbers and focusing on just like what's actually happening.

0:18:18.080 --> 0:18:21.200
<v Speaker 1>And you know, whether or not you dislike this or

0:18:21.640 --> 0:18:23.840
<v Speaker 1>admire it. I think it's really helpful to take a

0:18:23.880 --> 0:18:27.560
<v Speaker 1>step back and to look at a family empire that

0:18:27.720 --> 0:18:31.040
<v Speaker 1>is poised to make money while while the father is

0:18:31.119 --> 0:18:33.480
<v Speaker 1>in the White House in a way that's you know,

0:18:33.600 --> 0:18:35.320
<v Speaker 1>I don't know what to compare it to.

0:18:35.520 --> 0:18:36.720
<v Speaker 8>Obviously, obviously the.

0:18:36.760 --> 0:18:41.360
<v Speaker 1>Biden family, the Obama family, the Clinton family, the Bushes.

0:18:41.480 --> 0:18:45.359
<v Speaker 1>I can add, all of these people are capitalists. All

0:18:45.440 --> 0:18:48.400
<v Speaker 1>of these families were familiar with their reporting around their

0:18:48.400 --> 0:18:52.840
<v Speaker 1>money making, for sure, But as a financial reporter, I've

0:18:52.960 --> 0:18:56.520
<v Speaker 1>never seen I think the keyword here is the scale

0:18:57.080 --> 0:18:59.960
<v Speaker 1>billions of dollars just for Trump Media and Technology Group,

0:19:00.000 --> 0:19:02.800
<v Speaker 1>which you know of because it's the true social parent, right,

0:19:03.240 --> 0:19:05.919
<v Speaker 1>that went public last year he was on.

0:19:06.000 --> 0:19:06.840
<v Speaker 8>The campaign trail.

0:19:07.480 --> 0:19:09.879
<v Speaker 1>This scale is what appeals to me as a finance

0:19:09.960 --> 0:19:11.360
<v Speaker 1>reporter because it feels so new.

0:19:11.600 --> 0:19:16.040
<v Speaker 3>Listen to be fair, right, like you say, other presidents

0:19:16.119 --> 0:19:18.359
<v Speaker 3>in their families make money, whether it's.

0:19:18.359 --> 0:19:22.320
<v Speaker 4>At they write books, they are consultants. There's a lot

0:19:22.400 --> 0:19:22.720
<v Speaker 4>of things.

0:19:22.840 --> 0:19:26.119
<v Speaker 3>And just by right by being associated with a family

0:19:26.160 --> 0:19:28.840
<v Speaker 3>that was in the White House, right, it definitely opens doors.

0:19:29.160 --> 0:19:31.760
<v Speaker 3>But the point is, I think also is so much

0:19:31.800 --> 0:19:34.720
<v Speaker 3>of this is happening before going into the White House,

0:19:34.800 --> 0:19:35.439
<v Speaker 3>and now that he's.

0:19:35.320 --> 0:19:37.840
<v Speaker 1>In the White House, that is that's a really good

0:19:37.880 --> 0:19:39.960
<v Speaker 1>way of saying it. You know, one of my favorite

0:19:40.000 --> 0:19:41.720
<v Speaker 1>early scoops. I think it was like in the first

0:19:41.760 --> 0:19:44.040
<v Speaker 1>five years that I was at Bloomberg, Yeah, was about

0:19:44.080 --> 0:19:47.960
<v Speaker 1>Barack Obama getting paid. I believe my memory is hundreds

0:19:48.000 --> 0:19:50.159
<v Speaker 1>of thousands of dollars, maybe three hundred thousand, maye four

0:19:50.240 --> 0:19:53.119
<v Speaker 1>hundred thousand, maybe it was less for speeches at finance firms,

0:19:53.240 --> 0:19:58.000
<v Speaker 1>including Canter Fitzgerald, which is ironic, Candorvidgel just across the

0:19:58.000 --> 0:20:00.680
<v Speaker 1>street from us here in our Bloomberg headquarters. Yeah, Canter Friitgherald.

0:20:00.760 --> 0:20:03.680
<v Speaker 1>Of course, the family that's in control is the Lutnik family.

0:20:03.920 --> 0:20:06.399
<v Speaker 1>Howard Lutnick, of course is our Commerce secretary now.

0:20:06.840 --> 0:20:07.720
<v Speaker 8>And I bring that up.

0:20:07.760 --> 0:20:10.040
<v Speaker 1>It's relatively random and relatively stale, But I bring that

0:20:10.200 --> 0:20:13.200
<v Speaker 1>up first of all because it goes to show that

0:20:13.359 --> 0:20:16.640
<v Speaker 1>the Obamas, just like many other political figures, are interested

0:20:16.680 --> 0:20:17.359
<v Speaker 1>in money making.

0:20:18.720 --> 0:20:21.119
<v Speaker 8>But I just want to bring up the difference in

0:20:21.240 --> 0:20:23.280
<v Speaker 8>scale that as far as I.

0:20:23.560 --> 0:20:26.120
<v Speaker 1>As my reporting showed that that was a guy making

0:20:26.200 --> 0:20:28.680
<v Speaker 1>a few hundred thousand dollars, I know that this book

0:20:28.720 --> 0:20:29.280
<v Speaker 1>deal he made it.

0:20:29.280 --> 0:20:30.680
<v Speaker 8>What was that like sixty million dollars?

0:20:30.800 --> 0:20:33.639
<v Speaker 1>I think, yeah, but what I would But what I

0:20:33.920 --> 0:20:35.800
<v Speaker 1>really tried to wrap my mind around, and I know

0:20:35.840 --> 0:20:38.040
<v Speaker 1>Annie felt this way too. Is that what we're talking

0:20:38.040 --> 0:20:41.320
<v Speaker 1>about now for the family since the re election campaign began?

0:20:41.560 --> 0:20:45.240
<v Speaker 5>Right is in the billions, Max Abelson, this is a

0:20:45.280 --> 0:20:46.760
<v Speaker 5>great story. It's today's big Take. It's one of the

0:20:46.760 --> 0:20:48.480
<v Speaker 5>most read stories on the Bloomberg terminal. You got to

0:20:48.520 --> 0:20:51.439
<v Speaker 5>read it online because the illustrations in there are perfect

0:20:51.600 --> 0:20:54.159
<v Speaker 5>as well. Max, Thanks so much for joining us.

0:20:56.080 --> 0:20:56.720
<v Speaker 8>This is the.

0:20:56.760 --> 0:21:01.040
<v Speaker 2>Bloomberg Business Week Daily Podcast. Listen live each weekday starting

0:21:01.080 --> 0:21:03.560
<v Speaker 2>at two pm Eastern on Apple car Play and the

0:21:03.640 --> 0:21:06.440
<v Speaker 2>Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also

0:21:06.640 --> 0:21:09.640
<v Speaker 2>listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York

0:21:09.680 --> 0:21:12.840
<v Speaker 2>station Just Say Alexa played Bloomberg eleven thirty.

0:21:14.240 --> 0:21:17.200
<v Speaker 4>There's a lot that is once again coming out of DC.

0:21:17.840 --> 0:21:20.040
<v Speaker 3>We have actually seen shares of Fannie Mae and Freddie

0:21:20.080 --> 0:21:23.600
<v Speaker 3>Mack surged to sixteen years sixteen year highs after President

0:21:23.640 --> 0:21:26.639
<v Speaker 3>Trump said late last night that he was giving very

0:21:26.760 --> 0:21:29.960
<v Speaker 3>serious consideration to bring the firms public after more than

0:21:30.000 --> 0:21:32.000
<v Speaker 3>a decade of being under government oversight.

0:21:32.080 --> 0:21:33.520
<v Speaker 4>So let's get to what you need to know.

0:21:33.560 --> 0:21:37.080
<v Speaker 3>Bloomberg Intelligence Consumer finance analyst be Elliott is with us

0:21:37.400 --> 0:21:40.240
<v Speaker 3>once again from our DC Bureau. Back to our DC

0:21:40.320 --> 0:21:42.520
<v Speaker 3>Bureau week. Go Hey, Ben, good to have you here.

0:21:42.640 --> 0:21:45.040
<v Speaker 3>First up, Fanny Freddie been around for a long time,

0:21:45.200 --> 0:21:51.080
<v Speaker 3>storied history, quasi government publicly traded endities. What do we

0:21:51.160 --> 0:21:53.359
<v Speaker 3>first need to know kind of about that history?

0:21:54.640 --> 0:21:57.479
<v Speaker 10>Yeah, so they were founded many decades ago. Fanny May

0:21:57.720 --> 0:22:01.280
<v Speaker 10>first in the thirties, Freddie Maclear in the seventies. Actually,

0:22:01.359 --> 0:22:04.160
<v Speaker 10>they were privatized in the past, in the late sixties

0:22:04.200 --> 0:22:07.240
<v Speaker 10>by previous piece of legislation which sort of has some

0:22:07.600 --> 0:22:11.040
<v Speaker 10>echoes of what's happening today. And the company is basically

0:22:11.119 --> 0:22:15.760
<v Speaker 10>guaranteed seventy percent of US mortgages. You know, their existence

0:22:16.400 --> 0:22:19.920
<v Speaker 10>is unique globally and it makes the US home ownership

0:22:20.320 --> 0:22:22.840
<v Speaker 10>model possible. It's the reason that we have a thirty

0:22:22.920 --> 0:22:26.200
<v Speaker 10>year fixed rate mortgage available to homeowners today.

0:22:27.000 --> 0:22:29.359
<v Speaker 5>So what do we need to know about what happened

0:22:29.359 --> 0:22:31.920
<v Speaker 5>potentially during the financial crisis and the government oversight that

0:22:31.960 --> 0:22:34.520
<v Speaker 5>we've seen over the last few years, and what could

0:22:34.680 --> 0:22:37.040
<v Speaker 5>change given what we heard from the President.

0:22:37.680 --> 0:22:41.000
<v Speaker 10>Yeah, so the companies are fundamentally changed since the financial crisis.

0:22:41.119 --> 0:22:43.760
<v Speaker 10>It's important to note that they were doing all kinds

0:22:43.800 --> 0:22:47.399
<v Speaker 10>of ancillary businesses. They were basically operating the world's biggest

0:22:47.440 --> 0:22:51.280
<v Speaker 10>hedge fund, as Warren Buffett once said, and they got

0:22:51.320 --> 0:22:53.720
<v Speaker 10>over their skis taking on a bunch of additional risk

0:22:53.800 --> 0:22:57.560
<v Speaker 10>beyond just guaranteeing vanilla mortgages. So the majority of the

0:22:57.640 --> 0:23:01.600
<v Speaker 10>losses they suffered from two thousand and twenty eleven we're

0:23:01.640 --> 0:23:03.760
<v Speaker 10>from those activities, right, So they don't do any of

0:23:03.840 --> 0:23:07.280
<v Speaker 10>that anymore. But you know, they exist in this sort

0:23:07.280 --> 0:23:11.600
<v Speaker 10>of quasi governmental state where the FHFA and the Treasury

0:23:12.480 --> 0:23:15.600
<v Speaker 10>own and are in charge of the companies, and by

0:23:15.640 --> 0:23:17.800
<v Speaker 10>and large they function very well. They provide a huge

0:23:17.800 --> 0:23:21.600
<v Speaker 10>amount of liquidity to US housing markets. Every year, they

0:23:21.680 --> 0:23:24.879
<v Speaker 10>make the thirty year mortgage possible, and they earn about

0:23:24.960 --> 0:23:27.800
<v Speaker 10>thirty billion dollars a year for the Treasury Department. So

0:23:28.000 --> 0:23:32.960
<v Speaker 10>the status quo is arguably working. But they're in sort

0:23:32.960 --> 0:23:36.399
<v Speaker 10>of a bankruptcy like process that was never meant to

0:23:36.440 --> 0:23:38.680
<v Speaker 10>be permanent, and so there are a lot of observers

0:23:38.720 --> 0:23:41.320
<v Speaker 10>who think that that process should now come to an end, all.

0:23:41.280 --> 0:23:44.280
<v Speaker 3>Right, So you've got Fanny May up forty percent in

0:23:44.320 --> 0:23:48.280
<v Speaker 3>today's session. Freddie mac is up just about thirty nine percent.

0:23:48.480 --> 0:23:52.080
<v Speaker 3>So if they do go public officially and they're publicly

0:23:52.880 --> 0:23:55.639
<v Speaker 3>held entities, what does it mean for them, What does

0:23:55.680 --> 0:23:56.840
<v Speaker 3>it mean for their role in housing?

0:23:56.920 --> 0:23:59.679
<v Speaker 4>How might that change things from what they've been.

0:24:01.160 --> 0:24:03.719
<v Speaker 10>Well, it's it's really important to note that there are

0:24:03.880 --> 0:24:06.520
<v Speaker 10>very few details on this right. So the President has

0:24:06.520 --> 0:24:08.320
<v Speaker 10>been has been sort of saying what he said last

0:24:08.440 --> 0:24:11.240
<v Speaker 10>night since twenty seventeen, so we don't have anything new.

0:24:12.160 --> 0:24:15.639
<v Speaker 10>And the really important detail will be how, if at all,

0:24:15.760 --> 0:24:19.960
<v Speaker 10>the US government continues to back these companies after the

0:24:20.040 --> 0:24:22.960
<v Speaker 10>exit conservatorship potentially and and start to be to trade

0:24:23.000 --> 0:24:26.320
<v Speaker 10>like normal public companies. And and everyone by large degrees

0:24:26.359 --> 0:24:29.280
<v Speaker 10>that there will be some form of federal government guarantee.

0:24:29.320 --> 0:24:31.160
<v Speaker 10>They hope it will be explicit, they hope it will

0:24:31.200 --> 0:24:34.560
<v Speaker 10>be defined at a certain value, and they hope that

0:24:34.600 --> 0:24:37.720
<v Speaker 10>it will be paid for. But by and large, the

0:24:37.720 --> 0:24:40.800
<v Speaker 10>companies get a huge amount of benefits from being quasi governmental.

0:24:41.480 --> 0:24:43.680
<v Speaker 10>You know, their their credit rating is tied to the sovereign,

0:24:43.800 --> 0:24:49.280
<v Speaker 10>for instance, so they get very they get they get

0:24:49.400 --> 0:24:52.719
<v Speaker 10>financing on par with the with the risk free rate essentially,

0:24:52.760 --> 0:24:55.520
<v Speaker 10>which allows their business model to function at the price

0:24:55.560 --> 0:24:57.879
<v Speaker 10>as it does today. So if the companies were to

0:24:57.960 --> 0:25:02.320
<v Speaker 10>exit conservatorship, you know, it's not necessarily true that mortgage

0:25:02.359 --> 0:25:05.399
<v Speaker 10>rates will arise, but there are plenty of ways in

0:25:05.480 --> 0:25:08.440
<v Speaker 10>which they could. One is that the companies choose to

0:25:09.200 --> 0:25:13.480
<v Speaker 10>or need to earn more profits to attract third party

0:25:13.560 --> 0:25:18.520
<v Speaker 10>private capital to replace the government's current stake. And the

0:25:18.600 --> 0:25:22.159
<v Speaker 10>other way is that agency NBS investors lose faith in

0:25:23.200 --> 0:25:27.640
<v Speaker 10>their backing and they start to see credit risk returning

0:25:27.680 --> 0:25:30.760
<v Speaker 10>to the securities, and therefore they demand a larger premium

0:25:32.520 --> 0:25:34.840
<v Speaker 10>over treasuries and that translates into higher mortgage rates.

0:25:34.880 --> 0:25:36.520
<v Speaker 5>What does it mean exactly when you say that the

0:25:36.680 --> 0:25:39.159
<v Speaker 5>US has a stake in these companies, Because you know,

0:25:39.200 --> 0:25:41.520
<v Speaker 5>I go to HDS in the Bloomberg terminal to look

0:25:41.560 --> 0:25:44.639
<v Speaker 5>at these equities to see who the holders are, it

0:25:44.720 --> 0:25:48.679
<v Speaker 5>doesn't say the US government owns x percentage of these firms.

0:25:49.760 --> 0:25:49.960
<v Speaker 1>Yeah.

0:25:50.000 --> 0:25:51.880
<v Speaker 10>So, actually, at Bloomberg we do an interesting thing, which

0:25:51.920 --> 0:25:54.960
<v Speaker 10>is that we display the share count as though the

0:25:55.040 --> 0:25:59.560
<v Speaker 10>Treasury had already executed its warrants. It holds warrens to

0:25:59.640 --> 0:26:03.639
<v Speaker 10>buy seer of the common stuff. But they're not actually

0:26:03.920 --> 0:26:08.280
<v Speaker 10>exercised yet, so the federal government is not reflected as

0:26:08.280 --> 0:26:10.320
<v Speaker 10>an owner of the common shares. What they do own

0:26:10.440 --> 0:26:14.000
<v Speaker 10>is something called the senior preferred shares, which obviously as

0:26:14.040 --> 0:26:17.119
<v Speaker 10>the name implies, or senior to the common shares and

0:26:17.840 --> 0:26:20.680
<v Speaker 10>the valuation. There is something called the liquidation preference, which

0:26:21.160 --> 0:26:23.920
<v Speaker 10>is growing each quarter equal to the amount that the

0:26:23.960 --> 0:26:27.639
<v Speaker 10>companies earn, and it's approaching four hundred billion dollars. So

0:26:27.720 --> 0:26:30.480
<v Speaker 10>that's kind of the biggest impediment to this recap and

0:26:30.560 --> 0:26:33.000
<v Speaker 10>release process that you hear about is what does the

0:26:33.040 --> 0:26:36.320
<v Speaker 10>federal government do with this gigantic stake in the companies

0:26:36.320 --> 0:26:37.600
<v Speaker 10>and how does it get paid back?

0:26:37.800 --> 0:26:40.959
<v Speaker 3>Yeah, because I wonder if the government is still somehow involved,

0:26:41.040 --> 0:26:43.080
<v Speaker 3>is it kind of a sure thing for investors?

0:26:43.640 --> 0:26:45.960
<v Speaker 4>Maybe not a high flyer, but a sure thing. And

0:26:46.040 --> 0:26:47.320
<v Speaker 4>I also do think about.

0:26:47.080 --> 0:26:51.600
<v Speaker 3>Like moral hazard, like if something goes astraight, like do

0:26:51.760 --> 0:26:54.440
<v Speaker 3>we just assume the government's going to be there to

0:26:54.600 --> 0:26:55.359
<v Speaker 3>protect things?

0:26:57.000 --> 0:26:57.200
<v Speaker 6>Yeah?

0:26:57.240 --> 0:27:00.880
<v Speaker 10>I think there's the biggest risk is obviously moral hazard, right, right,

0:27:01.560 --> 0:27:05.200
<v Speaker 10>if they leave conservatorship and there's a defined dollar amount

0:27:05.359 --> 0:27:09.199
<v Speaker 10>that the Treasury agrees to backstop the companies and they

0:27:09.320 --> 0:27:12.360
<v Speaker 10>pay for it. I think even then bond markets will

0:27:12.359 --> 0:27:16.000
<v Speaker 10>assume that if worst comes to worst, the federal government

0:27:16.440 --> 0:27:18.919
<v Speaker 10>is going to write a blank check. The companies are

0:27:19.000 --> 0:27:22.399
<v Speaker 10>absolutely fundamental to the US economy, and you know, if

0:27:22.400 --> 0:27:25.760
<v Speaker 10>they were private enterprises, there's just no way that they could,

0:27:27.200 --> 0:27:30.119
<v Speaker 10>you know, go into bankruptcy and be resolved simply. And

0:27:30.400 --> 0:27:31.960
<v Speaker 10>the evidence of that is two thousand and eight, right's

0:27:31.960 --> 0:27:34.560
<v Speaker 10>staring us right in the face. So it does seem

0:27:35.000 --> 0:27:37.359
<v Speaker 10>as though there's some circular logic here, like we'd be

0:27:37.400 --> 0:27:38.000
<v Speaker 10>going right back to.

0:27:37.960 --> 0:27:41.040
<v Speaker 3>Where we were, Ben, fifteen seconds. How important is Fanny

0:27:41.040 --> 0:27:43.200
<v Speaker 3>and Freddy in terms of the housing market? They'll liquidity

0:27:43.320 --> 0:27:44.240
<v Speaker 3>just very quickly.

0:27:44.600 --> 0:27:47.720
<v Speaker 10>Absolutely crucial. They backed seventy percent of all US mortgages,

0:27:47.760 --> 0:27:50.399
<v Speaker 10>and without them, the fixed year, the fixt R eight

0:27:50.480 --> 0:27:52.359
<v Speaker 10>thirty year note just just wouldn't be available the way

0:27:52.359 --> 0:27:52.840
<v Speaker 10>it is today.

0:27:53.359 --> 0:27:54.520
<v Speaker 4>This is what you call an interview.

0:27:54.560 --> 0:27:56.520
<v Speaker 3>Why you should care, Ben Ellie, thank you so much,

0:27:56.560 --> 0:27:59.719
<v Speaker 3>Really appreciate b leotom me intelligence consumer finance analyst, Ben

0:27:59.840 --> 0:28:00.560
<v Speaker 3>la You know the.

0:28:00.560 --> 0:28:03.040
<v Speaker 5>Top holding is Pershing Square at two percent.

0:28:03.760 --> 0:28:05.320
<v Speaker 4>Love this stuff. This is Bloomberg.

0:28:06.000 --> 0:28:10.000
<v Speaker 2>You're listening to the Bloomberg Business Weekdaily Podcast. Catch US

0:28:10.080 --> 0:28:13.480
<v Speaker 2>live weekday afternoons from two to five pm Eastern. Listen

0:28:13.560 --> 0:28:17.040
<v Speaker 2>on Apple CarPlay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app,

0:28:17.280 --> 0:28:19.520
<v Speaker 2>or watch us live on YouTube.

0:28:21.520 --> 0:28:21.920
<v Speaker 6>Mac.

0:28:22.560 --> 0:28:23.560
<v Speaker 9>I'll bet you let me drive.

0:28:23.800 --> 0:28:29.040
<v Speaker 8>Oh no, no, no no, this is not a toy hory. Please,

0:28:29.200 --> 0:28:32.440
<v Speaker 8>I'll dovels. Let's great, I want to drive.

0:28:32.440 --> 0:28:35.520
<v Speaker 5>It's a good question.

0:28:39.480 --> 0:28:42.240
<v Speaker 8>This is the drive to the closet plunk for.

0:28:42.280 --> 0:28:45.840
<v Speaker 2>Me Efe Well, Drin Don on Bloomberg Radio.

0:28:46.880 --> 0:28:48.880
<v Speaker 3>All right, everybody, we're just about eighteen minutes away from

0:28:48.880 --> 0:28:51.000
<v Speaker 3>the closing bell on this Thursday. Carol Master along with

0:28:51.040 --> 0:28:53.760
<v Speaker 3>Tim Stanovik live here at our Bloomberg Interactive Broker studio,

0:28:53.920 --> 0:28:56.960
<v Speaker 3>Charlie and Bill Maloney breaking down the trade, talking about

0:28:57.000 --> 0:28:59.320
<v Speaker 3>the equity trade, we're pretty much hovering o our best

0:28:59.400 --> 0:29:01.040
<v Speaker 3>levels of the set. But what we really want to

0:29:01.080 --> 0:29:03.520
<v Speaker 3>get into is what we've been talking so much on

0:29:03.600 --> 0:29:06.520
<v Speaker 3>the fixed income side of things, in particular US treasuries.

0:29:06.720 --> 0:29:09.320
<v Speaker 5>Sometimes you have the perfect guests for the moment we

0:29:09.440 --> 0:29:11.440
<v Speaker 5>really had, and this is one of those times. We

0:29:11.560 --> 0:29:14.160
<v Speaker 5>got Kathy Jones with us. She's chief fixed income strategist

0:29:14.520 --> 0:29:17.400
<v Speaker 5>at the SHWUB Center for Financial Research, and she's here

0:29:17.880 --> 0:29:20.440
<v Speaker 5>in our Bloomberg Interactive Broker Studios. Thanks for coming in.

0:29:20.800 --> 0:29:22.520
<v Speaker 5>It is always great to see you, especially in a

0:29:22.600 --> 0:29:26.480
<v Speaker 5>week where we're talking about over five percent on the

0:29:26.560 --> 0:29:27.040
<v Speaker 5>thirty year.

0:29:27.280 --> 0:29:29.280
<v Speaker 9>Well, thanks for having me. It's a fun time to

0:29:29.400 --> 0:29:31.160
<v Speaker 9>be to be talking about it.

0:29:31.400 --> 0:29:34.640
<v Speaker 5>So what would you say is the underlying root cause

0:29:34.920 --> 0:29:36.320
<v Speaker 5>of what we saw happen yesterday?

0:29:36.960 --> 0:29:39.000
<v Speaker 9>I think there are a number of things have come together.

0:29:39.680 --> 0:29:44.360
<v Speaker 9>So it didn't just happen overnight, obviously, But the initial catalyst,

0:29:44.480 --> 0:29:48.080
<v Speaker 9>or the immediate catalyst, was the budget bill, which was

0:29:48.200 --> 0:29:50.720
<v Speaker 9>kind of a final straw for the market saying Okay,

0:29:50.840 --> 0:29:55.240
<v Speaker 9>there's really no meaningful progress going to be made anytime

0:29:55.400 --> 0:29:59.520
<v Speaker 9>soon on reducing the deficit. And this comes after we've

0:29:59.520 --> 0:30:03.360
<v Speaker 9>seen glow yields rise, after the dollar has fallen, and

0:30:03.440 --> 0:30:07.440
<v Speaker 9>we've made all these policy changes on trade that actually

0:30:07.480 --> 0:30:13.040
<v Speaker 9>would discourage capital inflows. And so we're this policy mix

0:30:13.240 --> 0:30:17.160
<v Speaker 9>combined with the budget said Okay, if I'm going to

0:30:17.240 --> 0:30:19.720
<v Speaker 9>hold long term paper, I'm going to need a higher

0:30:19.840 --> 0:30:21.120
<v Speaker 9>yield to compensate me.

0:30:21.440 --> 0:30:25.080
<v Speaker 5>But that bill is now closer or that bill is

0:30:25.120 --> 0:30:28.600
<v Speaker 5>now closer to becoming law, and we're seeing yields actually

0:30:28.680 --> 0:30:31.280
<v Speaker 5>pull back a little bit. So in my view, and

0:30:31.320 --> 0:30:34.000
<v Speaker 5>correct me if I'm wrong. Nothing is really shifted on

0:30:34.200 --> 0:30:37.480
<v Speaker 5>that front. Yet we're not seeing as much excitement or

0:30:37.880 --> 0:30:40.480
<v Speaker 5>in the words of the President, maybe yippiness in the

0:30:40.520 --> 0:30:41.880
<v Speaker 5>bond market. Yeah.

0:30:41.920 --> 0:30:43.840
<v Speaker 9>Well, I think a lot of the yippiness happened when

0:30:43.840 --> 0:30:46.640
<v Speaker 9>we hit five percent, right, and so now we're settling

0:30:46.720 --> 0:30:48.960
<v Speaker 9>down and kind of dealing with when what's so.

0:30:49.000 --> 0:30:50.960
<v Speaker 5>We don't stay yippy even though we're above five percent,

0:30:51.080 --> 0:30:52.800
<v Speaker 5>just the fact that we hit it is yippy.

0:30:53.120 --> 0:30:55.720
<v Speaker 9>Well, yes, but we have a one day reprieve, so

0:30:55.880 --> 0:30:58.480
<v Speaker 9>we don't know what's coming. But I would have to

0:30:58.640 --> 0:31:02.280
<v Speaker 9>say that if nothing changes on the policy front, the

0:31:02.520 --> 0:31:05.120
<v Speaker 9>likelihood is that yields will continue to rise at the

0:31:05.200 --> 0:31:08.760
<v Speaker 9>long end, just because investors want more compensation for all

0:31:08.800 --> 0:31:11.520
<v Speaker 9>the risks that have been put together.

0:31:11.600 --> 0:31:11.760
<v Speaker 1>Here.

0:31:11.960 --> 0:31:13.600
<v Speaker 4>One thing I want to get into is, and what

0:31:13.680 --> 0:31:16.120
<v Speaker 4>I'm finding interesting, is this just isn't a US thing.

0:31:16.200 --> 0:31:16.959
<v Speaker 4>It's a global thing.

0:31:17.040 --> 0:31:18.880
<v Speaker 3>And we talked about this with our John Authors, who

0:31:18.960 --> 0:31:22.720
<v Speaker 3>has a column out. He said, the bon vigilantes vigilantes

0:31:22.720 --> 0:31:24.680
<v Speaker 3>excuse me, may need a lot of rope and so,

0:31:24.920 --> 0:31:27.400
<v Speaker 3>but getting into he said, even some bigger things, not

0:31:27.560 --> 0:31:34.120
<v Speaker 3>just governments, fiscal houses, longevity costs to society and just

0:31:34.200 --> 0:31:35.800
<v Speaker 3>a different way of thinking of it, And I'm just

0:31:35.880 --> 0:31:38.080
<v Speaker 3>curious how that plays into your thinking as well, Kathy.

0:31:38.320 --> 0:31:41.920
<v Speaker 9>Yeah, absolutely, demographics are important here because we do have

0:31:42.040 --> 0:31:46.400
<v Speaker 9>aging populations and that means the burden on government will

0:31:46.480 --> 0:31:49.800
<v Speaker 9>be higher, presumably than it has been in the past,

0:31:49.920 --> 0:31:54.280
<v Speaker 9>as a larger proportion of the population requires government services,

0:31:54.960 --> 0:31:58.240
<v Speaker 9>and we haven't done anything to kind of address that

0:31:58.440 --> 0:32:02.840
<v Speaker 9>in balance longer term. So that combined with you know,

0:32:02.880 --> 0:32:05.920
<v Speaker 9>we've come off twenty years of slow growth, low inflation,

0:32:06.800 --> 0:32:10.720
<v Speaker 9>and ramped up our spending, and now we're ramping it

0:32:10.880 --> 0:32:13.000
<v Speaker 9>up more at a time when the economy is actually

0:32:13.080 --> 0:32:16.560
<v Speaker 9>doing well and inflation's not low and interest rates aren't low.

0:32:17.000 --> 0:32:21.080
<v Speaker 9>We're kind of having the policy impulse, the fiscal impulse

0:32:21.240 --> 0:32:24.360
<v Speaker 9>is going in the wrong direction at this stage of

0:32:24.400 --> 0:32:27.680
<v Speaker 9>the business cycle. Usually it should be countercyclical, and this

0:32:27.840 --> 0:32:28.840
<v Speaker 9>is pro cyclical.

0:32:29.360 --> 0:32:34.520
<v Speaker 3>Are you worried about these spending programs ultimately will lead

0:32:34.760 --> 0:32:37.480
<v Speaker 3>in some ways maybe to stackflation. And I'm just thinking

0:32:37.480 --> 0:32:39.280
<v Speaker 3>about if we're living in a higher rate environment, that's

0:32:39.280 --> 0:32:42.000
<v Speaker 3>going to have a cost right across the board everybody everything.

0:32:42.440 --> 0:32:45.680
<v Speaker 3>And I'm just curious as we continue to see, we're

0:32:45.720 --> 0:32:47.960
<v Speaker 3>probably going to still be in a higher tariff environment.

0:32:48.000 --> 0:32:49.480
<v Speaker 3>Things are going to cost more, and I know we'll

0:32:49.520 --> 0:32:52.560
<v Speaker 3>settle into it that everybody has just so much in

0:32:52.640 --> 0:32:54.240
<v Speaker 3>terms of funds to play around with.

0:32:54.360 --> 0:32:57.880
<v Speaker 4>So do you worry about stackflation? What do you worry

0:32:57.920 --> 0:32:59.959
<v Speaker 4>about in terms of the economic scenario.

0:33:00.640 --> 0:33:04.440
<v Speaker 9>I do worry about stagflation because it's probably one of

0:33:04.480 --> 0:33:09.040
<v Speaker 9>the most difficult things to get out of, and that's

0:33:09.440 --> 0:33:12.920
<v Speaker 9>without a lot of pain being inflicted on someone somewhere.

0:33:13.480 --> 0:33:16.360
<v Speaker 9>So policy wise, what does the FED do with stagflation?

0:33:17.000 --> 0:33:20.040
<v Speaker 9>They probably can't lower rates, right, because that will just

0:33:20.120 --> 0:33:24.080
<v Speaker 9>send inflation higher. On the other hand, if the economy

0:33:24.200 --> 0:33:27.880
<v Speaker 9>is weakening and unemployment is rising, they really should be

0:33:28.120 --> 0:33:32.120
<v Speaker 9>easing policy because that's part of their dual mandate. It's

0:33:32.240 --> 0:33:35.040
<v Speaker 9>not an easy process to work out. If we had

0:33:35.080 --> 0:33:39.040
<v Speaker 9>it in the seventies, you know, Arthur Berns and Nixon

0:33:39.200 --> 0:33:41.600
<v Speaker 9>and all that, We've talked about a lot, and it

0:33:41.800 --> 0:33:45.040
<v Speaker 9>was it was a long painful process to get out

0:33:45.120 --> 0:33:48.160
<v Speaker 9>of it. And so if we go back to an

0:33:48.240 --> 0:33:51.640
<v Speaker 9>environment like that, and particularly if we do it globally,

0:33:52.280 --> 0:33:54.320
<v Speaker 9>that is going to be a very difficult process.

0:33:54.600 --> 0:33:56.600
<v Speaker 5>Is the risk now of that greater than at any

0:33:56.680 --> 0:33:59.520
<v Speaker 5>point you've seen before in the last let's say, since

0:33:59.560 --> 0:34:00.719
<v Speaker 5>the Great enter Crisis.

0:34:01.240 --> 0:34:03.480
<v Speaker 9>Yeah, I think it's on a global perspective, or just

0:34:03.560 --> 0:34:08.480
<v Speaker 9>for the US globally as well. Now we're encouraging Germany

0:34:08.880 --> 0:34:11.480
<v Speaker 9>and Europe to spend more on defense. I don't know

0:34:11.600 --> 0:34:16.000
<v Speaker 9>that that's going to create for Europe, you know, this boom,

0:34:16.200 --> 0:34:19.200
<v Speaker 9>this fiscal boom, but it's more than we have asked

0:34:19.280 --> 0:34:21.840
<v Speaker 9>of them before, and it's more spending than they've done before.

0:34:21.920 --> 0:34:24.399
<v Speaker 9>So we have that in Europe. Japan has its own

0:34:24.560 --> 0:34:27.960
<v Speaker 9>unique set of problems, and you've seen those yields move

0:34:28.080 --> 0:34:31.799
<v Speaker 9>up very quickly. So it could become a global phenomenon.

0:34:32.080 --> 0:34:34.719
<v Speaker 4>All right, So there's that backdrop. Keep hitting my mic,

0:34:34.760 --> 0:34:36.800
<v Speaker 4>they're gonna yell at me, but we have that backdrop.

0:34:37.320 --> 0:34:40.760
<v Speaker 3>The other thing is, nothing is as deep and liquid

0:34:40.840 --> 0:34:43.880
<v Speaker 3>as the US treasury market. So how does that insulate

0:34:43.960 --> 0:34:45.719
<v Speaker 3>us from some of what might come?

0:34:46.239 --> 0:34:48.319
<v Speaker 9>Yeah? I think the one thing, the thing that gives

0:34:48.360 --> 0:34:51.320
<v Speaker 9>me the most comfort is that there's no real replacement

0:34:51.400 --> 0:34:52.960
<v Speaker 9>for the US treasury market.

0:34:53.080 --> 0:34:55.920
<v Speaker 4>And the other thing is not likely to be anytime now, right,

0:34:56.000 --> 0:34:56.319
<v Speaker 4>you know, you.

0:34:56.360 --> 0:34:59.160
<v Speaker 9>Can't really see it on the horizon. And the other

0:34:59.239 --> 0:35:02.160
<v Speaker 9>thing is we are well healthy country with tremendous assets,

0:35:02.840 --> 0:35:07.719
<v Speaker 9>so we have the capability of funding our debt, of

0:35:08.400 --> 0:35:11.560
<v Speaker 9>spending you know where we need to spend. We have

0:35:11.719 --> 0:35:15.799
<v Speaker 9>the capability to reduce our debt and to service our debt,

0:35:15.840 --> 0:35:19.160
<v Speaker 9>even at higher interest rates. We don't seem to have

0:35:19.200 --> 0:35:20.600
<v Speaker 9>the willingness to deal with it.

0:35:21.040 --> 0:35:22.240
<v Speaker 8>That's more of the issue.

0:35:22.520 --> 0:35:24.839
<v Speaker 9>But we're not like an emerging market country, our poor

0:35:24.960 --> 0:35:27.400
<v Speaker 9>country that builds up so much debt it can't service

0:35:27.480 --> 0:35:29.040
<v Speaker 9>the debt. We have the ability to do it.

0:35:29.440 --> 0:35:31.560
<v Speaker 5>Just a minute left. I've been asking everybody this question

0:35:31.719 --> 0:35:33.640
<v Speaker 5>today when it comes to fixed income, how do you

0:35:33.680 --> 0:35:35.680
<v Speaker 5>see corporates competing with fixed income right now?

0:35:35.760 --> 0:35:39.000
<v Speaker 9>For money, there's been a lot of interest in investment

0:35:39.080 --> 0:35:41.959
<v Speaker 9>grade corporates. I think they're a little expensive right now, Okay,

0:35:42.040 --> 0:35:44.239
<v Speaker 9>and we like them, but you know, the spreads are

0:35:44.280 --> 0:35:48.560
<v Speaker 9>pretty tight, so i'd say up in credit quality, but

0:35:48.840 --> 0:35:49.920
<v Speaker 9>I think they look pretty good.

0:35:50.000 --> 0:35:52.800
<v Speaker 5>Yeah, because we spoke to Sandy Villary yesterday who mentioned

0:35:52.840 --> 0:35:54.840
<v Speaker 5>he's not interested on the fixed income side when it

0:35:54.880 --> 0:35:57.800
<v Speaker 5>comes to US debt. He's looking at corporates. That's what's interesting.

0:35:58.000 --> 0:36:01.520
<v Speaker 9>A lot of issuance in Euro now from US corporate?

0:36:01.640 --> 0:36:04.160
<v Speaker 3>Is that where you would look overseas? Like where would

0:36:04.160 --> 0:36:06.200
<v Speaker 3>you in the fixed income commit some new money right now?

0:36:06.280 --> 0:36:07.040
<v Speaker 4>Got about forty.

0:36:06.880 --> 0:36:10.640
<v Speaker 9>Yeah, we like from the municipal bonds look very attractive.

0:36:11.040 --> 0:36:13.560
<v Speaker 9>We do like investment grade corporates, and some of the

0:36:13.640 --> 0:36:16.400
<v Speaker 9>Euro denominated issues could be very attractive even though the

0:36:16.480 --> 0:36:18.759
<v Speaker 9>yield's a bit lower. If you think the dollar is

0:36:18.760 --> 0:36:19.719
<v Speaker 9>going to go down as we do.

0:36:20.040 --> 0:36:22.680
<v Speaker 3>You're someone who's seen market cycles, does this kind of

0:36:22.760 --> 0:36:23.720
<v Speaker 3>feel odd?

0:36:23.960 --> 0:36:24.240
<v Speaker 8>Weird?

0:36:24.440 --> 0:36:24.480
<v Speaker 1>Like?

0:36:24.560 --> 0:36:26.200
<v Speaker 4>How do you see it? Forgive me just got about

0:36:26.200 --> 0:36:27.040
<v Speaker 4>twenty five seconds.

0:36:27.360 --> 0:36:30.200
<v Speaker 9>Yes, it feels weirder than anything. And I've been in

0:36:30.320 --> 0:36:34.080
<v Speaker 9>this business for almost forty years. Yeah, this feels weirder

0:36:34.160 --> 0:36:35.600
<v Speaker 9>than anything that I've seen.

0:36:35.760 --> 0:36:37.520
<v Speaker 4>And that includes GFC COVID.

0:36:37.800 --> 0:36:38.800
<v Speaker 9>Yeah either you got it.

0:36:39.000 --> 0:36:42.120
<v Speaker 3>Yeah, thank you, which is why we really look forward

0:36:42.160 --> 0:36:44.160
<v Speaker 3>to talking with you today as always, Kathy, Thank you.

0:36:44.640 --> 0:36:47.440
<v Speaker 3>Kathy Jones, she fixed and comes strategist over at Schwab

0:36:47.520 --> 0:36:49.560
<v Speaker 3>Center for Financial Research, joining us right here in our

0:36:49.600 --> 0:36:51.120
<v Speaker 3>Bloomberg Interactive Broker Studio.

0:36:52.320 --> 0:36:57.640
<v Speaker 2>This is the Bloomberg Business Week Daily podcast, available on Apple, Spotify,

0:36:57.840 --> 0:37:01.520
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0:37:01.560 --> 0:37:05.279
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0:37:05.640 --> 0:37:09.480
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