Speaker 1: Thursday morning, November thirtieth, twenty twenty three. It is the
Speaker 1: Beating the Book Podcast megapod for week number thirteen in
Speaker 1: the National Football League. It's Gil Alexander live from Bark,
Speaker 1: Canada at the D.
Speaker 2: Where we've been recording all of our shows this year.
Speaker 1: Can't wait to introduce our guest this week, an annual
Speaker 1: guest these days upon whose shoulders? This podcast, in part
Speaker 1: was built first Welcome to our pillars though from.
Speaker 2: His mom's cork attic in Pittsburgh, PA. Todd wish nev.
Speaker 2: What's hattening?
Speaker 3: DoD Oh, I'm in a great mood.
Speaker 4: Vanderbilt plus sixteen and the guy files with three seconds left,
Speaker 4: down sixteen.
Speaker 3: I'm excited.
Speaker 1: Would you like to get that out of your system first?
Speaker 1: So describe it to everybody?
Speaker 2: What happened? You had? Go ahead?
Speaker 4: I have Vanderbilt plus sixteen and a half. They're down
Speaker 4: eleven with one forty to go. They're down sixteen with
Speaker 4: twenty seven seconds left. The other team, but Boston College
Speaker 4: is doing the dribble out. We've all seen the dribble out, right.
Speaker 4: I know what you're supposed to do. You're supposed to
Speaker 4: just dribble it out. Dribble it out, and then they
Speaker 4: throw to a guy with nine seconds left. There's two
Speaker 4: guys standing next to him, and then all of a
Speaker 4: sudden they start slapping at the ball for no reason whatsoever,
Speaker 4: and the ref calls a foul with three seconds up.
Speaker 3: Then I lose.
Speaker 4: Now give me a break. That's not supposed to happen,
Speaker 4: have you? I mean, these kids went to eight hundred
Speaker 4: AAU games. They don't know what a dribble out is.
Speaker 1: Come on, never, I've never heard you angry about any bet,
Speaker 1: angrier about any bet that you've ever made.
Speaker 3: It'sfuriating.
Speaker 2: All right, he's a guy out of your system. They're good.
Speaker 2: We're good.
Speaker 1: Now we can move on and from his lair where
Speaker 1: he does the Bare Bets pod with Chris Phalika, both
Speaker 1: college and pro versions and this megapod. You can follow
Speaker 1: him on Twitter at not v will hill By the way,
Speaker 1: you can follow Todd at t wishnev.
Speaker 2: It's Wilson Hillson. How you doing, Will?
Speaker 5: Boys? What's going on? I'm good?
Speaker 6: I feel like we say it every other couple of weeks,
Speaker 6: But man, we get to flip the calendar to December. Here,
Speaker 6: in my goodness, where does the time go. It feels
Speaker 6: like we're just sitting here end of August, Aly September eyed,
Speaker 6: bushy tailed, and now the season is just you know,
Speaker 6: a few weeks left, so man, it goes quickly.
Speaker 2: Two thirds of the NFL regular season behind us. It's incredible.
Speaker 1: I mentioned, I mentioned at the beginning this podcast was
Speaker 1: built in part upon this man's shoulders.
Speaker 2: We are.
Speaker 1: We're happy to have him on once a year here
Speaker 1: on the show for an annual appearance. Love having him
Speaker 1: still in the uh in the rotation. Ladies and gentlemen.
Speaker 1: You know him by many names, Johnny, the Greek Vegas runner, Ace,
Speaker 1: how you doing, what's happening?
Speaker 7: Yeah?
Speaker 8: Please stop dead naming me and being violent towards me.
Speaker 8: Just you gotta remember it gets twenty twenty three. You
Speaker 8: gotta be politically correct.
Speaker 7: I'm just kidding. But with that added the way, I'm glad.
Speaker 8: To be on and your timing could not be any better, honestly, Gil,
Speaker 8: because I'm red hot right now.
Speaker 7: Like you know how during the year, sometimes you're hot,
Speaker 7: sometimes you're cold. It just happens. Where right now, anything
Speaker 7: I'm touching is going good.
Speaker 8: Like actually got into stock two nights ago and I
Speaker 8: woke up today and he gapped.
Speaker 7: Up over fifty percent overnight.
Speaker 8: Like things are just happening where I'm like, I need
Speaker 8: to go downstairs and play Megabucks sometime today because I
Speaker 8: just can't do no wrong.
Speaker 7: So I think the timing is good coming on.
Speaker 2: What stock was it?
Speaker 8: If I might ask VFS, then Fast Motors, it's the
Speaker 8: Vietnammese EV Company, okay, which is he's like the richest
Speaker 8: guy in Vietnam and he created his own EV company.
Speaker 7: And yeah, I got into like five dollars in this morning.
Speaker 8: I five eighty and I looked up this morning it
Speaker 8: was gapped up to like eleven dollars.
Speaker 2: Man sins, we're talking about that.
Speaker 1: Let me just have a CNBC moment before I move
Speaker 1: on to football, which is I was saying this on
Speaker 1: a numbers game this morning, and Todd has a background
Speaker 1: in this industry. And I'm curious because Mark Cuban just
Speaker 1: sold fifty seven percent of the Mavericks for two billion
Speaker 1: dollars at a valuation of three point five billion, And
Speaker 1: my first reaction was, Wow, Skins got sold for six
Speaker 1: point oh five. They're one of the most valuable franchise
Speaker 1: in sports. Three point five million a billion pardon before
Speaker 1: basketball team. That's pretty incredible. But Joe Peta, who has
Speaker 1: spent a lifetime in finance on a Wall Street, he
Speaker 1: was like, actually, the way to look at it is,
Speaker 1: you know, money that he pulled out aside. He's like,
Speaker 1: if you look at the S and P five hundred,
Speaker 1: the appreciation of the Mavericks over the twenty three years
Speaker 1: that Cuban has held them is actually one hundred and
Speaker 1: twenty fourth out of the five hundred stocks in the
Speaker 1: S and P five hundred. If you had invested in
Speaker 1: Nike or even less sexy John Deere over that time period,
Speaker 1: you would have actually, it actually compounded more for you.
Speaker 1: So isn't the real lesson of the Mark Cuban thing,
Speaker 1: Todd beyond the ego of owning a professional sports franchise
Speaker 1: and still being able to feed your ego and have
Speaker 1: fun owning a sports franchise, But just from a seer
Speaker 1: monetary standpoint, isn't one of the lessons of this sale? Hey,
Speaker 1: kids in your twenties and your thirties, max out your
Speaker 1: furrow one k. Just let that shit compound over time.
Speaker 1: Do you agree with that assessment from Joe?
Speaker 3: Yeah?
Speaker 4: I mean, of course, I mean, everyone knows that the
Speaker 4: market historically is going to go up about ten percent
Speaker 4: a year over the last you know, ninety years or so,
Speaker 4: and and the you know, in the world of compounding obviously,
Speaker 4: you know, works for you when you when you're dealing
Speaker 4: with that. The the the thing though, that I would
Speaker 4: say is I think these sports franchises are on the
Speaker 4: high side of their up trend because I remember, only
Speaker 4: a couple of years ago the Bucks were sold for
Speaker 4: like two hundred and sixty million.
Speaker 3: I don't remember exactly when that was.
Speaker 4: But there's going to be a point where they've pushed
Speaker 4: it too far with the sports stuff, and it's going
Speaker 4: to be and then you'll you'll you'll see, you know,
Speaker 4: it like any other thing, even even charts that trending up,
Speaker 4: they have downswings too, you know, And I feel like
Speaker 4: we're just at we're closer to a top than a
Speaker 4: bottom on you know, I mean, the Mavericks selling for
Speaker 4: you know, evaluation three point five bill. I mean, that's
Speaker 4: just that sounds a little crazy.
Speaker 1: A little lot of me too, for sure, Okay, disagreeate,
Speaker 1: you disagree.
Speaker 9: So fun It's all these valuations are based over the
Speaker 9: last decade of free money. We had a zero interest
Speaker 9: rate for the last decade, and all they did is
Speaker 9: print money. All these valuations are just the reflection of
Speaker 9: that printed money.
Speaker 7: It's not reflection of the value of the company.
Speaker 3: As soon as.
Speaker 8: We run into where we could no longer pay our debt,
Speaker 8: that we're going to find out what these companies are
Speaker 8: truly worth.
Speaker 7: You agree, but surely.
Speaker 4: So you're saying you agree with me that the three
Speaker 4: point five billion for the Mavericks is a little crazy.
Speaker 7: One percent.
Speaker 8: It's it's warranted in today's world, But I think we're
Speaker 8: a few years away from realizing just how fake of
Speaker 8: a sale that was.
Speaker 7: It's all these valuations are ridiculous.
Speaker 8: It's also Nvidia Tesla, It's just ridiculous.
Speaker 1: Yeah, Peter actually said what you said too, which is
Speaker 1: it is backloaded, like he thinks.
Speaker 2: That the spirt, that the the uh.
Speaker 1: The jump in the valuation is probably backloaded to the
Speaker 1: last ten years. He did say that as well. Okay,
Speaker 1: Tom Todd Court stenographer, Please, I had my second bad
Speaker 1: week of the year.
Speaker 2: Let's hear it. What happened?
Speaker 4: Yes, Well, first of all, I apologize to the listeners
Speaker 4: when I couldn't write in week eleven because I had
Speaker 4: the injection on my elbow. I forgot to include those
Speaker 4: records and the records and somebody pointed that out.
Speaker 3: So I've got it all fixed up correctly now.
Speaker 4: So I appreciate whoever with that guy on Twitter who
Speaker 4: pointed out Anyways, the point is Gilly had an two
Speaker 4: and one, which is so ungilly, like mister eighteen in
Speaker 4: one or whatever ridiculous run. He was on there for
Speaker 4: a while, and I said it's going to come to
Speaker 4: an end sooner or later, and it did come to
Speaker 4: an end. He was fortunate with the Eagles minus three
Speaker 4: to even get out.
Speaker 2: With a push.
Speaker 4: By the way, before I go any further, I will
Speaker 4: say my best in game bet of my season, maybe
Speaker 4: of my last five seasons of my life, was as
Speaker 4: the Bills are driving down inside the twenty of the Eagles,
Speaker 4: they're down by four, as we know they were losing
Speaker 4: by four, and and I look at the book, it
Speaker 4: says overtime plus nine hundred. I'm like, overtime plus nine hundred,
Speaker 4: Oh yeah, what happens when they get a touchdown and
Speaker 4: the Eagles come down and kick a field goal? That's
Speaker 4: not a plus nine hundred, that's insanity. So I bet,
Speaker 4: like maybe like zero point two of a unit to win,
Speaker 4: you know, like whatever, nine to one on that, and
Speaker 4: of course we all saw I finally got a kicking, lucky,
Speaker 4: kicking thing. Of course, it should have never been a
Speaker 4: fifty nine yard or in the rain, because they were
Speaker 4: down already at like the thirty three yard line with
Speaker 4: plenty of time. But anyways, it went to overtime. That
Speaker 4: might have been the best bet of my of my year. Anyways,
Speaker 4: the Eagles minus to be ended.
Speaker 1: Up a hold on let me, I don't know if
Speaker 1: you explained it well, but if you missed what Todd
Speaker 1: said as the Bills were coming down to take the
Speaker 1: go ahead touchdown, which would have put them three up,
Speaker 1: and then the Eagles would have had the chance to
Speaker 1: tie it up, which is exactly what happened. It took
Speaker 1: a fifty nine yard or through the rain to do so.
Speaker 1: But yes, nine to one. And what it speaks to
Speaker 1: for me is is you're not in Nevada and you're
Speaker 1: in Pennsylvania. And I just can't emphasize enough how great
Speaker 1: it is to be outside of Nevada, because as I
Speaker 1: like to, as Will will and I have joked before, boy,
Speaker 1: when we get legalized sports betting in this town, in
Speaker 1: this in this state, it's gonna be something. We had
Speaker 1: a bets giving contest the seven seven Days at Viisen,
Speaker 1: so we were given access to Draft Kings app for
Speaker 1: seven days where we normally wouldn't be for this contest.
Speaker 1: And by the way, the standings were all for Cocta
Speaker 1: and I ended up going. I ended up like making
Speaker 1: over seventy bets. I was like thirty nine and thirty
Speaker 1: five or whatever. But some of the best bets I
Speaker 1: made yours is the best of them all. That nine
Speaker 1: to one was so sharp. We don't have that available here, right,
Speaker 1: And you guys had access some of my bets, like
Speaker 1: you know, oh, look, Oregon is playing Oregon is playing
Speaker 1: Oregon State. If Oregon State can score this game, make
Speaker 1: it a fourteen to seven. I'm totally betting Oregon right
Speaker 1: here at minus thirteen and a half. Bang they score, right, Like,
Speaker 1: don't have that readily available.
Speaker 2: In Nevada or more that we might have.
Speaker 1: But the third quarter bets, right, the Dolphins are getting
Speaker 1: the ball first against the Jets.
Speaker 2: They're minus two and a half. Thank you very much,
Speaker 2: I'll take that like that.
Speaker 1: That is, I so am envious of what you guys
Speaker 1: have available to you that we don't. And so again
Speaker 1: just that it's our PSA for in game betting. Man,
Speaker 1: if you're in a state that's not Nevada, so many
Speaker 1: opportunities that are better than any pre flop bet you
Speaker 1: could ever make.
Speaker 4: Sorry, that's why I think we should get an RV
Speaker 4: and we should. We should drive down to just past
Speaker 4: the Hoover Dam. There's an exit right there that you
Speaker 4: could sit on the side of the road, which I've
Speaker 4: done before when I was in say two, You can
Speaker 4: get all the.
Speaker 3: Arizona betting things.
Speaker 4: All we have to do is whoever whatever that county is,
Speaker 4: are we allowed to have like a TV on the
Speaker 4: side of the road there and have people's cars lined up.
Speaker 3: We charge everybody like fifty bucks or something.
Speaker 4: That would be a great business, you know, for for somebody,
Speaker 4: for those Vegas people who want to like, it's only
Speaker 4: thirty minutes, it's.
Speaker 2: Not that far thirty Hoover Dam.
Speaker 4: Yeah, there's nothing there. The problem is there's literally nothing there. Well,
Speaker 4: it's literally the desert.
Speaker 1: It's it's so funny too, because you are you are
Speaker 1: driving to one of America's, if not America's finest engineering
Speaker 1: feat the Hoover Dam.
Speaker 2: So as you drive there, like someone.
Speaker 1: That are you here for the Hoover the glory of
Speaker 1: the Hoover Dam, And I'm like, no, I'm just here
Speaker 1: to make a bet, buddy. I'm just going to cross
Speaker 1: the day and just plant my car in this little
Speaker 1: cove in the wall and in the mountain, and I'm
Speaker 1: gonna make a bet. We've all done it that I
Speaker 1: did it for like some fan Dual World Series MVP bets,
Speaker 1: not this year but last year. But the other part
Speaker 1: of your Nevada sensibility also is the one thing you
Speaker 1: can say about Nevada is MGM and Caesars will take
Speaker 1: a big bet. I forgot they don't take big bets.
Speaker 1: So you also have to factor that in. It's like,
Speaker 1: do I want to drive to Arizona to make a
Speaker 1: two hundred dollars bet on Christian Hobvier?
Speaker 2: Right, So there's that too. Anyway, Sorry, go ahead with
Speaker 2: the snogral.
Speaker 4: Okay, So anyways, the records Gilly Fowls from twenty three
Speaker 4: and ten, the twenty three, twelve and one will had
Speaker 4: a one and two really last week, he goes to
Speaker 4: eighteen and eighteen. Oh, by the way, both of you
Speaker 4: are seven and five on teasers. We lost the teasers
Speaker 4: with the Lions, so you're both seven and five on teasers.
Speaker 3: I go one and two.
Speaker 4: Also, my Jags won in my Kansas City Under lost
Speaker 4: and my Overbears loss. So I'm I am now eighteen
Speaker 4: sixteen and two and I am leading in teasers at
Speaker 4: eight and four, and then the guest spot. Ace is
Speaker 4: gonna have to hold up the guest spot. It went
Speaker 4: one and two. They're twenty fourteen and two, still very solid,
Speaker 4: and also seven and five.
Speaker 5: In the teasers.
Speaker 3: So that's where we are going into week thirteen.
Speaker 1: Okay, so I basically I sucked with you guys barely
Speaker 1: made it a betty ground, is what happened.
Speaker 2: We had a bad week all around.
Speaker 1: But I will say this, though I knew and I
Speaker 1: said this on last week's show, I had a bad
Speaker 1: feeling about that week. I didn't like anything that was Thanksgiving.
Speaker 2: Was the to me, was the worst slate of games
Speaker 2: in terms of a betting slate that I remember at
Speaker 2: having all year. I feel completely different about it this week,
Speaker 2: which we'll get into here are three reasons. Zen is
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Speaker 1: Before we get into our best bets, lasting, does anybody
Speaker 1: maybe this is one of your best bets? I don't
Speaker 1: know anybody have a play on anything in tonight's Thursday
Speaker 1: night football game where the Cowboys are nine point favorites
Speaker 1: hosting the Seahawks, the totals forty seven and a half.
Speaker 1: Is it anybody? Is it anybody one of their three
Speaker 1: best bets?
Speaker 3: I'm gonna make it one of my bets.
Speaker 2: Ace.
Speaker 3: Yes, So first.
Speaker 7: Yes, sir, I'm a on the Seattle side.
Speaker 8: I think this is a great spot where I'm pretty
Speaker 8: confident in it that I'm betting more points than I
Speaker 8: should and that's the best I could ever ask for. Again,
Speaker 8: I can't decide how it's going to come out, how
Speaker 8: they're going to turn out the game. I mean, whether
Speaker 8: there's calls, whether whatever happens. There's a lot of randomness
Speaker 8: in Bob. But what I do know is that I
Speaker 8: do believe that this line's inflated. There's a lot of
Speaker 8: recency bias involved. We know how hot Dallas has been,
Speaker 8: not only winning and covering, but blowing their last three
Speaker 8: opponents out. They put forty plus points up in two
Speaker 8: of their last three games. They've covered each of these
Speaker 8: games by double digits. And more importantly, they got the
Speaker 8: Philadelphia Eagles up next, which falls for a classic sandwich game,
Speaker 8: and you.
Speaker 7: Already sold the books. Throw in the teaser protection. They
Speaker 7: bumped that.
Speaker 8: One up immediately through that key numbers, so he can't
Speaker 8: tease it down with that six point teaser. To me,
Speaker 8: just every signal that I look for pretty much earmph,
Speaker 8: and now it's just we'll Seattle'll be able to keep
Speaker 8: it close if they're able to get it done, and
Speaker 8: I think they are. You know, they're top ten defense
Speaker 8: when top ten offense. Excuse me, when you adjust FIRS
Speaker 8: strength the schedule in their passing success rate, which is
Speaker 8: enough to put.
Speaker 7: Some points up on this tough Dallas defense.
Speaker 8: I think Seattle's got a good, decent enough defense not
Speaker 8: to allow Dallas to put up forty plus on them.
Speaker 7: I like Seattle plus the points hoping to be able
Speaker 7: to get ten.
Speaker 8: I don't think I'll need it, but that's pretty much
Speaker 8: just what I've been sitting back at to see if
Speaker 8: I could get the ten.
Speaker 7: All right, when I'm going to jump it nine and
Speaker 7: a half anyway?
Speaker 2: Is it nine and a half now or nine? What
Speaker 2: do we got? Nine and a half?
Speaker 3: Half?
Speaker 2: Nine and a half?
Speaker 3: All right?
Speaker 8: Nine and a half.
Speaker 2: Okay, Todd, I can hear you. This is gonna be
Speaker 2: one of your best bets to this game, Todd.
Speaker 3: Unfortunately I have two plus nine and a half.
Speaker 2: Oh wow, I would I guess that? Okay?
Speaker 4: I look, I said last week, what is Dallas going
Speaker 4: to just win every single game by a million points?
Speaker 3: I mean, what league is this?
Speaker 4: I've never heard of a league where you can a
Speaker 4: National Football league where you just every single week, nothing
Speaker 4: bad happens and you just win by a million points.
Speaker 4: I mean, it just doesn't happen. And it was actually
Speaker 4: on thinks it looked like it wasn't gonna happen on
Speaker 4: Thanksgiving when Washington was hanging there at fourteen ten and
Speaker 4: then you know, the roof caved in on him. But
Speaker 4: you know, typically when I make these kind of pronouncements
Speaker 4: like you can't win in the NFL by one hundred
Speaker 4: points every single week, over and over. I'm usually one
Speaker 4: week early as usual, and of course I was one
Speaker 4: week early.
Speaker 3: In saying that.
Speaker 4: You know, but come on, you can't win every single
Speaker 4: game in the NFL by twenty five points. It's just
Speaker 4: not normal. And so and who are they being? Washington, Carolina,
Speaker 4: the Giants. Okay, the Rams was good. I'll give him that.
Speaker 4: But still, I've watched the National Football League long enough.
Speaker 4: You know, Seattle. I don't like Seattle. I can't stand Seattle.
Speaker 4: But nine and a half points? Are you freaking kidding?
Speaker 4: That's a lot of points in an NFL game? And
Speaker 4: I just don't think Dallas can keep winning every single
Speaker 4: game by a million points. So give me Seattle plus
Speaker 4: nine and a half. I I'll grin and Barrett and
Speaker 4: I'll just do it.
Speaker 3: But I think it's a good bet.
Speaker 2: Hey, Todd, did you watch the Vanderbilt game last night?
Speaker 2: But any Chane, Yeah, let me.
Speaker 3: Tell you what happened. They were down eleven.
Speaker 2: Will anything on this game?
Speaker 5: I'm going opo here. I will lay it with Dallas.
Speaker 6: Wow, they are custom built to just beat up on
Speaker 6: these mediocre teams. I do think Seattle's a mediocre team.
Speaker 6: I don't like their secondary. It's sort of a young
Speaker 6: and experienced secondary. They've been getting carved up here San Francisco.
Speaker 6: They toyed with them last week. They could have named
Speaker 6: their score. They really took the foot off the gas
Speaker 6: in the second half. And Seattle is hell bent on
Speaker 6: running the ball. Even last week when they're down two
Speaker 6: three scores late, they're running the ball. Problem is they
Speaker 6: can't run the ball and Walker's out sharpone's fine. But
Speaker 6: to me, Dallas gets a big lead here. They if
Speaker 6: my favorite my favorite player we can't use it, obviously
Speaker 6: would be Cowboys. Team total, there's a twenty seven and
Speaker 6: a half at DraftKings. I like the over their last
Speaker 6: three home games forty three, forty five, forty nine. Okay,
Speaker 6: that's not sustainable. Okay, there's some recency bias, But six
Speaker 6: straight games with thirty plus at home, I just think
Speaker 6: they get well into the thirties here.
Speaker 5: And I just don't know it. Is Gino healthy?
Speaker 6: Is Gino capable of fighting back here and getting the
Speaker 6: garbage touchdown, which you always worry about laying a big number.
Speaker 6: But I'll plug my nose here. I'll lay the points
Speaker 6: here with Dallas. I just think they're such a front runner,
Speaker 6: is such a bully that I think they're good for
Speaker 6: this number.
Speaker 1: Okay, I don't think we've had a time this year
Speaker 1: where three out of the four of us had a
Speaker 1: play on the Thursday night game. And if I had
Speaker 1: to guess, if you had told me that in advance
Speaker 1: that three of the four of us were going to
Speaker 1: have a play, I would have thought it one of
Speaker 1: them would have been on the total primetime unders this year,
Speaker 1: by the way, twenty seven and excuse me, pardon me,
Speaker 1: twenty nine to nine seventy six percent. I don't think
Speaker 1: there's anything to that other than it's just been a
Speaker 1: big under environment period in the NFL.
Speaker 6: The Island games too, like the London games, all go under,
Speaker 6: so that does encounter as a primetime game, but that's
Speaker 6: still like a standalone game. So if you if you
Speaker 6: factor in the standalone games, the one games even more,
Speaker 6: even tho, those.
Speaker 1: Are unders, if I played anything here would be the
Speaker 1: under on this. But I'm not touching it all right,
Speaker 1: but those are so to me, even.
Speaker 8: Though it's that high gilt, even though the lines the
Speaker 8: totals moving up and they threw that high of.
Speaker 7: A total with the trend being so under heavy.
Speaker 2: I'll tell you why. I think it's it's under to me.
Speaker 2: I think that the.
Speaker 1: Seat, like if you look at the Analys excites about
Speaker 1: the Seahawks defense. I think they're underrated because they sucked
Speaker 1: early and now they've got like Leonard Williams, and they
Speaker 1: got guys back that are healthier now, obviously Jamal Adams
Speaker 1: being one of them. So I think there's that, And
Speaker 1: I think Dak against the zone is not as good.
Speaker 1: They play a lot of zone Seattle does. They're like
Speaker 1: the second highest rate of zone. And then I think
Speaker 1: on the other side, they can't protect Gino at all.
Speaker 1: I think Michael Parsons is going to just kill them
Speaker 1: with a makeshift offensive line. They have like a rookie
Speaker 1: playing on one side of the offensive line today. So
Speaker 1: it's not a best bet for me, but that would
Speaker 1: be my instinct on that.
Speaker 3: Wait.
Speaker 4: Wait, I think I'm hearing something. Oh No, twenty eight
Speaker 4: score twenty eight to thirteen. There's thirteen seconds left in
Speaker 4: this ball game. Seattle at the Dallas nine yard line
Speaker 4: and Gino out of the pocket.
Speaker 3: He's gonna run for it.
Speaker 9: He done touchdown Seattle Penson's Hey, they're.
Speaker 4: Gonna lose this ball game twenty eight nineteen, So what's
Speaker 4: nine and a half's gonna cast?
Speaker 2: I love when he loses his breadth of the end.
Speaker 2: This is phenomenal, all right?
Speaker 1: So does that mean I get to start best bets
Speaker 1: since since you guys had one already. Yeah, so I snake,
Speaker 1: I get two right here?
Speaker 2: All right? Pick numero Uno.
Speaker 1: Full disclosure, I have this in my betting account at
Speaker 1: two and a half, but I got the Niners minus
Speaker 1: three is my number one here. I got the Niners
Speaker 1: minus three, And I know Will you said this yesterday
Speaker 1: on a numbers game. Does it concern me that everybody
Speaker 1: appears to be on the Niners? Yeah, a little bit,
Speaker 1: But I do think this is a spot the Eagles
Speaker 1: can't As much as Todd is saying, the Cowboys can't
Speaker 1: crush everybody by a million every week, the Eagles can't
Speaker 1: win every damn game like this just can't happen over
Speaker 1: and over where. They have no business winning games, and
Speaker 1: they find a way to do so. Should have lost
Speaker 1: to Dallas, should have lost to the Bills, for sure.
Speaker 1: They should have lost the Bills. Maybe even should have
Speaker 1: lost the Commanders before that the Commodores. I think this
Speaker 1: is where they lose. The Niners are an extra rest.
Speaker 1: The Eagles played damn near five quarters in the rain
Speaker 1: on Sunday, and I just think that the Eagles have
Speaker 1: been skating as a luckbox, as a Stevie Fesik luckbox,
Speaker 1: for so many weeks, and I think this is the week.
Speaker 1: In my betting account, I have it at two and
Speaker 1: a half, like I said, but I have betted at three.
Speaker 2: Yeah.
Speaker 1: Probably I don't love it as much clearly, but I
Speaker 1: like the Niners here. I think they're the most complete
Speaker 1: football team in the NFL, and I think that becomes
Speaker 1: readily apparent this Sunday to everybody who doubts them. And
Speaker 1: I think Brock Purdy after this week becomes a serious
Speaker 1: MVP candidate.
Speaker 2: That is my call on that game.
Speaker 1: So I'm on the Niners in game number one, game
Speaker 1: number two, and I bet four of these during guessing lines.
Speaker 1: Like as much as I hated last week's late I
Speaker 1: love this one. Pick Numero Dose, Big Numero Dos. I'm
Speaker 1: what do you owe? They're at three and a half now,
Speaker 1: I'm still taking them. I'm still taking the Houston Texans
Speaker 1: at a bad number. I bet this at three. I'm
Speaker 1: gonna to take them on the megapot at three and
Speaker 1: a half, which is the consensus, because I that is
Speaker 1: the consensus everywhere. Now it's painted this. It was three
Speaker 1: on uh on Monday morning. The Denver Broncos are a mirage.
Speaker 1: I know everybody's really hyped about the fact that they've
Speaker 1: gone from one to five to six and five. They
Speaker 1: have done so based on turnover differential last four games,
Speaker 1: their turnover differential is plus twelve. This ain't the nineteen
Speaker 1: hundred and eighty three Washington Redskins, who for the season
Speaker 1: had a unbelievably incredible and never to be broken plus
Speaker 1: forty three turnover differential plus forty three.
Speaker 2: Every week that.
Speaker 1: Skins team was getting a plus three and a plus
Speaker 1: four like clockwork. The Broncos have done in four games
Speaker 1: where they're now.
Speaker 2: To plus twelve. You can't keep doing that.
Speaker 1: If anything beyond the nineteen eighty three Skins, it is unsustainable.
Speaker 1: And I don't think they're a very good football team.
Speaker 1: And I have the Texans as my ninth best team.
Speaker 2: We did Power rankings this week and the Texas is
Speaker 2: the ninth best team in the NFL.
Speaker 1: I think they roll here. I actually think they win
Speaker 1: this by margin. Give me the Texans even here with
Speaker 1: the hook Houston Texas, you're nodding, Ace, you liked that one.
Speaker 7: Huh yeah, I got.
Speaker 8: I bet them on the money line and I laid
Speaker 8: the three as well.
Speaker 7: I think it's a great spot for them, man.
Speaker 8: I mean, like the last three losses are by three
Speaker 8: points or less, and I agree with everything you said.
Speaker 8: I think Denver's phony is a three dollars bill and
Speaker 8: that defense is just so bad.
Speaker 7: I think Houston's gonna have a field day.
Speaker 2: Phony is a three dollars bill. By the way, we'll
Speaker 2: get back to Ace for his pick.
Speaker 1: But you said off air for those wondering, because Ace
Speaker 1: has been on the Vegas Lifestyle Show with us every
Speaker 1: year until the last couple, you want to get on
Speaker 1: it this year?
Speaker 7: You said, indeed, I think it's necessary.
Speaker 8: Like I said that, where the world is trending, I think,
Speaker 8: especially the young sports betting is just growing and growing
Speaker 8: and growing. Younger and younger people are are getting involved
Speaker 8: in it, and this podcast has a big enough reach
Speaker 8: that I think we owe it to the listeners.
Speaker 7: We need to update some of that when they come
Speaker 7: to town.
Speaker 1: Okay, let's do that. We'll get you on there. People
Speaker 1: are looking forward to that. No, is that a thing?
Speaker 1: Is that a Philly accent?
Speaker 5: Ace? Is that a Filly or Baltimore.
Speaker 6: I'm trying to place it because we have Todd's Todd's
Speaker 6: Philly because it's strange because.
Speaker 8: English was my is my second language, like I actually
Speaker 8: Greek was my what I spoke in the house. I
Speaker 8: probably went to school and knew about five or six
Speaker 8: words when I got the kindergarten. But so a Philly
Speaker 8: mixed with whatever else, that is an accent Philly Greek.
Speaker 1: All Right, I gave two. We're snaken back, so this
Speaker 1: is Will, Will. What's your next one?
Speaker 6: I like to be different, but I'm totally in line
Speaker 6: with your thinking. I'm going to take the Texans here.
Speaker 5: Onay the three and a half.
Speaker 6: This is just a total house of cards here with Denver.
Speaker 6: All of their defensive stops are off of turnovers. All
Speaker 6: of their offensive sex comes off success comes off of
Speaker 6: short fields because of the turnovers.
Speaker 5: And when you're just.
Speaker 6: Plus three plus four all these weeks, you can't sustain that.
Speaker 6: They're they're just they're really handcuffing Wilson. They're asking him
Speaker 6: not to lose the game if they get behind that.
Speaker 6: I don't trust him to come back and you get.
Speaker 5: Him in the back door here. So I'll lay the three.
Speaker 5: I hate the hook.
Speaker 6: I would love it obviously a lot more if it
Speaker 6: was three. But this is just Denver winning close games
Speaker 6: based on turnover look is completely unsustainable.
Speaker 5: Texans minus three and a half.
Speaker 1: Can I get some reaction to that? Redskins nineteen eighty
Speaker 1: three thing plus forty three?
Speaker 4: That was a different league. That was a different league
Speaker 4: where there were turnovers. That a completely different.
Speaker 1: Era, one hundred percent right, But I I watched every
Speaker 1: play of every game that season. It was amazing. They
Speaker 1: had sixty one takeaways.
Speaker 5: That's insane.
Speaker 3: Sixty one.
Speaker 4: You converted that in like the inflation rate, inverted that
Speaker 4: to today's, it would be like five would still be great,
Speaker 4: but it would be much low.
Speaker 2: Forty three to thirty five. Okay, I'll get you know.
Speaker 5: That's a staggering stat.
Speaker 2: It's a staggering Statutty era.
Speaker 3: They had forty three for the season, plus.
Speaker 2: Forty three, but differential.
Speaker 4: Right, so they would be they'd be like plus twenty five.
Speaker 4: This year, you know, something.
Speaker 2: Like Todd wish neev turnover differential inflation rate.
Speaker 4: I'm just saying there were way if you look at
Speaker 4: the NFL and the old days, there were much more
Speaker 4: turnovers than there are today. If you know, each turnover
Speaker 4: in those days is like two and a half of
Speaker 4: a turnover nowadays, we don't have.
Speaker 2: Right, that's correct, but the corct is that though, but
Speaker 2: the correct way, but the correct way of viewing that
Speaker 2: is what that was based on all the other teams then,
Speaker 2: and it was still still exponentially more.
Speaker 4: Second, I'm not taking anything away from the Joe Gibbs
Speaker 4: and jam It You're you're, you're, you're, you're never ending
Speaker 4: love for this this franchise.
Speaker 3: I'm not don't have a problem with that.
Speaker 4: I'm just I'm just you know, because when people hear
Speaker 4: these numbers, they probably like, oh, oh, that's a tremendous
Speaker 4: amount of turn Yeah, it is because in those days
Speaker 4: there were turnovers. Now there's not turnovers like that because
Speaker 4: everyone's scared to turn the ball over. They know if
Speaker 4: you turn the ball over, you're gonna lose. So it's
Speaker 4: it's a completely different league now, all.
Speaker 1: Right, I'm let me see I'm going from I'm just
Speaker 1: gonna go to the last decade. In two thousand and six,
Speaker 1: there was a plus seventeen.
Speaker 2: Bear with me. Two thousand and seven, there was a
Speaker 2: plus seventeen.
Speaker 1: I'm just so yeah, I go buy this this.
Speaker 2: It's pretty incredible. It's pretty incredible what they did.
Speaker 3: By That's what I'm saying. Yeah, we don't have that nowadays.
Speaker 3: You can't get to plus forty. It's impossible.
Speaker 2: This sandy forty. The San Diego Charters in two thousand
Speaker 2: and seven had a plus twenty four.
Speaker 3: How about that, which is a ridiculous number for that even.
Speaker 1: That, that's a ridiculous number. Anyway, Okay that what's your
Speaker 1: number two?
Speaker 4: Okay my number two pick and you know, slim pickings
Speaker 4: again this year this week, I disagree. You know, I'm
Speaker 4: gonna I'm gonna go with the New or I'm gonna
Speaker 4: hold my nose and go with the New Orleans Saints.
Speaker 3: I have two hold my nose plays Seattle.
Speaker 4: I'm holding my nose and I'm gonna hold my nose
Speaker 4: again with the Saints. Plus four. Here's the thing, Detroit.
Speaker 4: You know, I was all big Detroit. Look at Detroit. Wow,
Speaker 4: Detroit and I still think they're pretty good on offense, but.
Speaker 3: Wow, the defense has really been bad lately. I can't
Speaker 3: believe that.
Speaker 4: You know, Green Bay's just moving up and down on
Speaker 4: the Bears, just moving up and down on them like
Speaker 4: they're not even there. You know, the Saints at home,
Speaker 4: you know, as much as you know, Derek Carr makes me,
Speaker 4: you know, with his endless four yard.
Speaker 3: Passes, makes me want to pew. You know, sooner or later.
Speaker 3: You know they're going to have a decent offensive game.
Speaker 3: They're not that bad.
Speaker 4: And now they're at home and they're getting four points
Speaker 4: in it. You know, you can't be laying four points
Speaker 4: unless you're a really good team on the road in
Speaker 4: the NFL. And and the Lions they're good, but I
Speaker 4: don't know if i'd call them really good. I think
Speaker 4: there's been some chinks in the armor lately, So I
Speaker 4: think that that that that line's a bit inflated. I
Speaker 4: think four is a lot of point to be laying
Speaker 4: on the road when you're a team that's good but
Speaker 4: not I wouldn't call the Lions elite. So let's all
Speaker 4: just calm down with this whole Lions love. And I'm
Speaker 4: gonna take the Saints plus four.
Speaker 1: Do you know how much incoming I took when I
Speaker 1: had the audacity to have the Lions just outside my
Speaker 1: top ten for most of the year, and the highest
Speaker 1: I've ever had.
Speaker 2: Them is tenth.
Speaker 1: All the Lions lovers just coming after me, I'm like, no,
Speaker 1: this is exactly what they are.
Speaker 3: And I would have disagreed with you.
Speaker 4: Then I would have been like them, because I was
Speaker 4: high on the Lions too. But I've started to, you know,
Speaker 4: lose a little luster with the Lions lately.
Speaker 2: Twenty ten Patriots plus twenty eight, twenty eleven, nine Ers
Speaker 2: plus twenty eight, those I think are the next closest to.
Speaker 1: The plus forty three eighty three Skins. Okay, Ace, your
Speaker 1: second and third picks?
Speaker 2: What do you got?
Speaker 7: All right?
Speaker 8: I like the New Orleans pick from Todd that's offense
Speaker 8: versus defense, and I will take defense as well at
Speaker 8: home for sure catching points with New Orleans. But real quickly,
Speaker 8: let me make this my second pick. It's the Chargers
Speaker 8: New England over.
Speaker 7: I'm going to go.
Speaker 8: Over over forty and a half right now. At where
Speaker 8: you're at, you could get over forty. That's what I did.
Speaker 8: But with grade forty and a half. That's what it
Speaker 8: is across market, and this is a simple case of
Speaker 8: unefficient market correcting itself. Yes, I get it, these have
Speaker 8: been under teams of late, especially, but when you look
Speaker 8: at the number for the Chargers, this is the lowest total.
Speaker 7: They've had in a long time.
Speaker 8: In there are last ten games, only once have they
Speaker 8: had a total closed below forty four. So the market
Speaker 8: has definitely adjusted for the lower scoring.
Speaker 7: I like that, and then I look at the Chargers offense.
Speaker 8: I think they'll have no problem putting up points against
Speaker 8: a very weak New England defense that's ranked twenty third
Speaker 8: in past success right especially they were coming off a
Speaker 8: bad game last time he had a passer roating below.
Speaker 8: He came back with the passer rating of one hundred
Speaker 8: and fifteen his very next game, and that's what he
Speaker 8: did exactly last game against Baltimore with a passer rating
Speaker 8: of seventy five points seven.
Speaker 7: I think he bounces back with a big game.
Speaker 8: And on the flip side with New England, the only
Speaker 8: thing I can say simply is a progression to the mean,
Speaker 8: Like you can't get and get worse. Just look at
Speaker 8: their quarterbacks play in their.
Speaker 7: Last couple of games.
Speaker 8: Look at those ratings twenty seven point eight forty two,
Speaker 8: like the only way you could go is up. It's
Speaker 8: pretty hard to go down from that. So I think
Speaker 8: any improvement.
Speaker 7: To quarterback play is going to help his team put
Speaker 7: up points. And going against the LA Chargers, who.
Speaker 8: Again defensive passing success rate are twenty sixth in the NFL,
Speaker 8: I think even a mnemic offense like New England will
Speaker 8: be able to put up enough points where combined they
Speaker 8: get us Tough over forty.
Speaker 7: I think Chargers, New England over forty forty and a half.
Speaker 7: Excuse me.
Speaker 8: And finally, this is one of the short plays. You know,
Speaker 8: I provide accounts for different groups and different sports, and
Speaker 8: two hit the same exact side within twenty minutes of
Speaker 8: each other, and I agree with it.
Speaker 7: And it's the Green Bay Packers.
Speaker 8: On Sunday night catching the six against the Kansas City Chiefs. Lise,
Speaker 8: I'm high on the Chiefs like everybody else, but I
Speaker 8: like what I've been seeing of Green Bay of late,
Speaker 8: especially of Love.
Speaker 7: He's done nothing but improve.
Speaker 8: And anytime he's had a bad game, he's bounced right back.
Speaker 7: That's what I love. He's coming off a.
Speaker 8: Great game and I think that continues. He's had three
Speaker 8: of his last four games.
Speaker 7: Have been nominal. Fine times under the He's given a
Speaker 7: little bit too many points here. I think it's even.
Speaker 8: Worth a sprinkle case. He's got a game with Buffalo
Speaker 8: up next. Again, you're not gonna overlook for Little Green
Speaker 8: Bay in Lambeau on Sunday night. But with that said,
Speaker 8: it's still at a conference. You're on the right, and
Speaker 8: I think the Packers catching six are live here. So
Speaker 8: I'll go with over in the Chargers New England game,
Speaker 8: and then I'll go with the so called steam move
Speaker 8: on Green Bay plus the six ace.
Speaker 2: Let me ask you a question about sprinkle.
Speaker 1: We made you made it famous on this podcast for
Speaker 1: so many years saying sprinkle, and I used to throw
Speaker 1: in the e forty jingle afterwards where it would hit
Speaker 1: as you said it. When you hear everybody in the
Speaker 1: gambling world using that phrase, Now, do you believe you
Speaker 1: had something to do with that, like or do you
Speaker 1: believe that that was something that was said rampantly before
Speaker 1: you used to say it?
Speaker 7: Oh god, no, no no, no, absolutely not no no no.
Speaker 8: I started that back in when we were like over
Speaker 8: a decade ago. Yep, when we were together, and it
Speaker 8: came from something in my life that had nothing to
Speaker 8: do with sports. Yep, that's why I know that I
Speaker 8: brought it into this realm and.
Speaker 7: We just said it so much, and the podcast was
Speaker 7: so big.
Speaker 8: Remember there weren't a lot of shows back, No, it
Speaker 8: was just Dustin Millman, so much.
Speaker 7: To choose from, exactly.
Speaker 8: So the betters were listening to us and they just
Speaker 8: started using it in their lexicon, and then those people
Speaker 8: started doing their own content and using it, and it
Speaker 8: just spread. And of course you're never going to get credit.
Speaker 8: Of course that's an originated but we did start it
Speaker 8: so far back and now when I see it, actually,
Speaker 8: i'm proud of that that we actually added a word.
Speaker 2: We added a word to the you started breaking up there.
Speaker 7: We left something behind that that will not be raised.
Speaker 2: We left something behind.
Speaker 1: Let's so we left a lot of things behind, but
Speaker 1: that was definitely one of them for sure. Okay, that
Speaker 1: means we're back to Todd for his final one.
Speaker 4: Well, I coined the phrase took us push that everyone's
Speaker 4: using it.
Speaker 3: I started it out as took us push, which.
Speaker 2: Is a by the way, somebody somebody made a college
Speaker 2: game day sign for a Numbers game this morning, and
Speaker 2: they did a Bingo card for all the ship I say,
Speaker 2: and took us pushes on here Todd. It's one of
Speaker 2: the Bengos squares they got on there, So that's for me. Yeah,
Speaker 2: I love it.
Speaker 4: By the way, as far as aces over forty and
Speaker 4: a half La Clipper bet, I kind of like that
Speaker 4: one too, especially because remember we talked about it on
Speaker 4: Doctor Bob when when both teams, you know, when the spread,
Speaker 4: like one team spread is seven and two and the
Speaker 4: other team spread is like two and seven. Same thing
Speaker 4: on the total, when both teams have the have the
Speaker 4: under one is three and seven, one is three and eight,
Speaker 4: like it is in the Patriots and Clippers game, Typically
Speaker 4: it's going to go the other way because they've over
Speaker 4: adjusted to this. So that's why I really like it
Speaker 4: over forty theres. I just was scared that Belichick is
Speaker 4: going to go into that thing where he gets stubborn,
Speaker 4: and he just says, Romandre Stevenson right, Romandre Stevenson left,
Speaker 4: Romandre Stevenson middle, and he just starts getting stubborn in
Speaker 4: the and then he just decides, Okay, I'm just running
Speaker 4: the ball. I don't care whether we win or not.
Speaker 4: And so that was why I didn't play it. But
Speaker 4: that that's kind of you know, I like it too.
Speaker 1: But anyways, can I ask the book? Can I ask
Speaker 1: a Bill Belichick questions? As you bring it up? He's
Speaker 1: going to the Hall of Fame? But do you think
Speaker 1: after this season that there is a comma and the
Speaker 1: last phrase that people will have to say about him
Speaker 1: is but he did kind of suck when Brady wasn't there.
Speaker 1: Do you think that's part of it?
Speaker 2: Now? You don't think you don't think that's fair?
Speaker 4: I don't think I mean he was Look, he was
Speaker 4: a good coach with Cleveland. He just kept running into
Speaker 4: the Steelers with coach Kier and.
Speaker 3: That we used to give him a whooping in that.
Speaker 6: But he killed in Cleveland. What did you say, Well,
Speaker 6: I mean the move killed him in Cleveland. There's a
Speaker 6: good documentary about that where they had a really good
Speaker 6: team and a good season go in the middle of
Speaker 6: the season they found out they were moving and that
Speaker 6: team ended up being the Ravens.
Speaker 5: So like, I don't know, I don't know that that.
Speaker 5: I think that is a part of it too.
Speaker 1: So so then what we're really saying is mac Jones
Speaker 1: and Bailey Zappi are so bad at football that any
Speaker 1: coach would have been this bad.
Speaker 3: Well, I mean, how many years years old?
Speaker 1: Any seventy two years old, you're allowed to be You're
Speaker 1: allowed to maybe the game pass you by a little
Speaker 1: bit at seventy two. Yeah, if that's what you're saying,
Speaker 1: will Yeah.
Speaker 3: He was only he was only a dominant figure for
Speaker 3: what twenty years? Every single week.
Speaker 2: I started by I started by saying, he's the first beat.
Speaker 2: You know, he's a Hall of Famer. No one's doubting that.
Speaker 1: I'm just saying, does that Does that sentence creep into
Speaker 1: people's minds now?
Speaker 4: Well, because people are idiots and they'll say that. But
Speaker 4: I don't think it's fair.
Speaker 6: Okay, I think nowadays, But like but when you know,
Speaker 6: twenty years from now, when the dust settles, I think
Speaker 6: it'll get lost more than it is now.
Speaker 2: Like we're all I think you're.
Speaker 3: In the moment.
Speaker 6: There's recency bias where yeah, I said this about I
Speaker 6: think when Durant signed with the Warriors, we're in the
Speaker 6: moments like, oh.
Speaker 5: My god, how could he do this?
Speaker 6: Nobody will remember these titles like twenty thirty years from now,
Speaker 6: people just remember Durant won this many titles, scored this
Speaker 6: many points, and things fate over time.
Speaker 2: Yep, I think you're probably right. Go ahead, Todd.
Speaker 4: I'm sorry, Okay, my third pick it it was between
Speaker 4: going against my YenS ers down are.
Speaker 3: Where I got the free parking on seal.
Speaker 4: You know, you got to get that email from the
Speaker 4: River's Casino otherwise you're gonna pay one hundred dollars to
Speaker 4: park at the casino and walk down into game.
Speaker 3: Now.
Speaker 4: I got my free parking this week, and I was
Speaker 4: thinking about going with the little Menchkin Guy, Kyler Murray
Speaker 4: in at but I just can't pull the trigger because
Speaker 4: that Cardinal team is not real good, and you know,
Speaker 4: I have a feeling that maybe the Storers can cover
Speaker 4: the number. So I'm gonna stay away from my Stiller's game.
Speaker 4: I was thinking about taking Cardinals plus five and a
Speaker 4: half in that, but I won't do it because I mean,
Speaker 4: when do we ever win a game by five and
Speaker 4: a half. When do the Stillers ever win by We
Speaker 4: don't ever win by five, and in fact, we don't
Speaker 4: ever win the first half.
Speaker 3: We never win a It's ridiculous. Anyways, I'm gonna.
Speaker 4: Go with Instead of that, I'm gonna go with the
Speaker 4: Jacksonville jag Offs. That's another Pittsburgh word they call people
Speaker 4: jag off, Hey, jag off.
Speaker 3: The Jacksonville jag Offs.
Speaker 4: Minus nine against the Cincinnati Bengals.
Speaker 2: Wow.
Speaker 4: And the reason I don't like laying nine points? I mean,
Speaker 4: who wants to lay nine points in an NFL game?
Speaker 4: But I am actually and I've been high on Jacksonville,
Speaker 4: I think more than most people you know for a while.
Speaker 4: And I think it's because defense is better than people give.
Speaker 3: It credit for.
Speaker 4: And I just think that this Jacksonville team is a
Speaker 4: real legit contender in the AFC. In fact, I think
Speaker 4: it's going to be between Jacksonville and the Ravens who
Speaker 4: ends up being in the super Bowl. I think the
Speaker 4: Chiefs are not the Chiefs, and so I think it's
Speaker 4: gonna be between Jacksonville and the Ravens. And I know
Speaker 4: that Jacksonville got spanked by the Niners that one week,
Speaker 4: but other than that, they've been playing amazing. And this
Speaker 4: Tim Boyle character or whoever they have not Tim Boyles
Speaker 4: the Jets. Who's the guy for the Bengals, I forget?
Speaker 2: His name is Jake Brown? Jake Browning.
Speaker 3: Jake brown Right, I.
Speaker 4: Put Tim Boyle and Jake Browning together, but Jake Browning
Speaker 4: is not ready for the National Football League. And come on,
Speaker 4: the Jacksonville defense is good. You know, when I'm going
Speaker 4: to lay a big number, I want to make sure
Speaker 4: my defense can hold the other team down. So that's
Speaker 4: why I like Jacksonville this week. I think they can
Speaker 4: hold the Bengals to you know, thirteen points and win
Speaker 4: this game, you know, twenty four to thirteen or something.
Speaker 3: So I like Jacksonville.
Speaker 4: Minus the nine and and you know, I'll just hold
Speaker 4: my breath that I can cover the nine.
Speaker 2: All right, will your final pick?
Speaker 6: Todd hinted, I'll go with the Cardinals. I'll take the
Speaker 6: five and a half for all the reasons he mentioned.
Speaker 6: Steelers don't pull away from anybody.
Speaker 5: Tomin It's interesting.
Speaker 6: I'm not a huge trend guy, but Tomlin there's a
Speaker 6: pattern with him where he's good off of a loss.
Speaker 6: He's good as an underdog. Well, he's not off of
Speaker 6: a loss, and he's not an underdog.
Speaker 5: He's off of a win.
Speaker 6: He's off a favorite, and he is a favorite. I
Speaker 6: just think five and a half is a lot with
Speaker 6: that offense for Pittsburgh, every single game they win.
Speaker 5: Is twenty to seventeen, seventeen to fourteen.
Speaker 6: So that was ugly last week from Arizona. But maybe
Speaker 6: you're buying a little low. You can get maybe a
Speaker 6: backdoor from Murray there, run around and do something. I
Speaker 6: don't think it's going to take a lot of points
Speaker 6: for Arizona to cover this. I will take Arizona plus
Speaker 6: the five and a half. It was between that and
Speaker 6: San Francisco, but I don't want to have two a
Speaker 6: year's gil, so I will go Arizona plus the five
Speaker 6: and a half.
Speaker 2: All right.
Speaker 1: My final one is the Indianapolis Colts taking the Indianapolis Colts,
Speaker 1: and I'm laying the points against the Tennessee Titans on
Speaker 1: the road. It's actually a better number than I got
Speaker 1: it at now. It's what minus won or is it
Speaker 1: a pick?
Speaker 3: Olts minus one?
Speaker 2: Golts minus one? I'm taking this here. I don't know.
Speaker 1: This is a really weird one for me, and I
Speaker 1: don't know that I've ever given this explanation for any
Speaker 1: pick I've ever made. But you ever catch an interview
Speaker 1: of anything and it lands on you in a certain
Speaker 1: way where you're like Oh, this team's about to do
Speaker 1: some stuff. That's how it was for me with the
Speaker 1: Colts when they squeaked by the Patriots ten to six
Speaker 1: right before their bye week. The Colts had one of
Speaker 1: these buys the week before last, where I think it
Speaker 1: was perfectly situated on their schedule.
Speaker 2: They're five and five.
Speaker 1: They managed somehow to get a five and five into
Speaker 1: the bye without Anthony Richardson, without Jonathan Taylor for most
Speaker 1: of the season. I don't think Gardner Minshew is that
Speaker 1: good quite frankly, but the interview was with Jonathan Taylor,
Speaker 1: and he was super excited about the fact that they
Speaker 1: were having a week off and that then they could reset,
Speaker 1: and they knew that their schedule either way. On a
Speaker 1: numbers game last week, I said take the Colts plus
Speaker 1: one to eighty to make the postseason because their schedule
Speaker 1: is cake cake the rest of the way. I don't
Speaker 1: think they're a great football team, but I think they're
Speaker 1: better than the Titans.
Speaker 3: Why don't you read their schedule to us?
Speaker 2: I shall do that, thank you very much. I really
Speaker 2: should do such a thing.
Speaker 1: Here was their schedule before the bye, by the way,
Speaker 1: it was at Carolina at New England, then they got
Speaker 1: their bye.
Speaker 2: They beat Tampa Bay last week.
Speaker 1: Now it's at Tennessee, at Cincinnati home Pittsburgh, at Atlanta home,
Speaker 1: Vegas home Houston. So they are winning the games they're
Speaker 1: supposed to win. They've got Tennessee here.
Speaker 2: Now at Tennessee, I think if they look at their schedule,
Speaker 2: this might be one of the.
Speaker 1: Easiest of the rest too as well. I should say
Speaker 1: I think they win this football game. I don't think
Speaker 1: very much of Tennessee. I think the shine has come
Speaker 1: off Vabel. I don't think we think of him as
Speaker 1: a particularly great coach anymore. I think we talked about
Speaker 1: this about Derek Henry and past weeks where it's like
Speaker 1: it might be over for Derek Henry, or might it
Speaker 1: might be the beginning of the age curve for him.
Speaker 1: Will Levis has kind of just been meh. I think
Speaker 1: the Colts are better football team, and I think Jonathan
Speaker 1: Taylor now with all of these weeks at full strength,
Speaker 1: I like the Colts here. This is my instinct on
Speaker 1: guessing lines was Niners Colts, Texans. Texans was probably my favorite,
Speaker 1: and the fourth one was the Chargers over the Patriots.
Speaker 1: But I don't the Chargers still lay in a lot
Speaker 1: of points. So I'll make the Colts my third and
Speaker 1: there you have our best.
Speaker 4: Before we go to the teasers, you can I just
Speaker 4: say one quick thing about end game.
Speaker 3: Yes, another one of the in games.
Speaker 4: And this is why it's so important to watch the
Speaker 4: games if you want to, you know, win an in game.
Speaker 2: Now.
Speaker 4: I've been terrible this year. This has been a bad year.
Speaker 4: I've also been unlucky with the kicking. But but you know,
Speaker 4: last week Williams for the Rams was playing the Cardinals,
Speaker 4: and if you watch the first game between the Cardinals
Speaker 4: and the Rams, in the second half of that first game,
Speaker 4: they just handed it off to Williams and he gashed him.
Speaker 4: He looked like Wisconsin in twenty sixteen, where they would
Speaker 4: just run for nine yards every play against Ball State.
Speaker 4: That's what it looked like. And that's never what it
Speaker 4: looks like in an NFL game. Typically, when an NFL
Speaker 4: game is up like two scores and the other team
Speaker 4: knows you're gonna run, it's hard to run.
Speaker 3: But they were up big and.
Speaker 4: They were literally handing the ball to Williams and he
Speaker 4: was gashing them for eight yards, nine ten yards.
Speaker 3: It was ridiculous. That was the last game.
Speaker 4: Then this game comes up, and the first half of
Speaker 4: this game, he's got sixty four yards on ten carries,
Speaker 4: which is six point four carry, which in the NFL
Speaker 4: is a gaudy number already, right, And if you're watching
Speaker 4: the game, you're going wait a second. The last time
Speaker 4: they played the Cardinals, everyone knew in the stadium that
Speaker 4: he was going to run, and they ran like crazy.
Speaker 4: Now in the first half again they handed off to him.
Speaker 4: He's running like crazy. I'm sitting there and he's got
Speaker 4: sixty four yards, and I look at the ind game
Speaker 4: and it's ninety seven and a half and the Rams
Speaker 4: are up big in this game, and I'm like, it
Speaker 4: doesn't matter what happens here.
Speaker 3: They didn't keep giving it to Williams. He's going to
Speaker 3: keep killing them. So what do they do.
Speaker 4: The first handoff off at the commercial? I make over
Speaker 4: ninety seven and a half. I texted it out on
Speaker 4: my WhatsApp group over ninety seven and a half. He's
Speaker 4: got sixty four they handed to Williams. He run for
Speaker 4: fifty yards on the next play. I literally won the
Speaker 4: bet in one second, but I didn't even need to
Speaker 4: because they literally were getting six and seven yards a gash.
Speaker 4: And that's why when you're watching the games, if you
Speaker 4: can notice these little, you know, subtleties and go, wait
Speaker 4: a second, when in an NFL game, when you're up
Speaker 4: three scores, is it that easy to run? It's never
Speaker 4: that easy to run. And you see something like that,
Speaker 4: you got to take advantage.
Speaker 1: But it brings up the bigger point that we've made
Speaker 1: before about about watching games versus not watching games, and
Speaker 1: we don't like Bob is always on the show, right
Speaker 1: Doctor Bob and a dear friend who you know, I've
Speaker 1: said it with him President. I don't feel like I'm
Speaker 1: talking behind his back. He makes it a point to
Speaker 1: say and he almost wears it as a badge of
Speaker 1: honor right where he's like, I don't watch that many games.
Speaker 1: I kind of think he's kind of fibbing because I
Speaker 1: think he watches more than but it's kind of a
Speaker 1: thing for him. You can't possibly, I don't care how
Speaker 1: good your models are. You can't possibly win as many
Speaker 1: bets not watching, and you can't pick up on as
Speaker 1: much stuff not watching.
Speaker 2: You just can't. You can't.
Speaker 1: And we have guys who are super successful as contest players, right,
Speaker 1: Las Vegas.
Speaker 2: Chris doesn't. He's like, I don't want to sit through this.
Speaker 2: I don't want to sit through Yes.
Speaker 3: So about Vegas to examples.
Speaker 2: Why don't you let will talk once for a second.
Speaker 3: No, I was just gonna say quickly.
Speaker 6: I could think of two examples recently college basketball. Last week,
Speaker 6: I was on the air VS and it was Syracuse
Speaker 6: Shamanad and I think they were laying like twenty two
Speaker 6: before the game, and you couldn't make the number high
Speaker 6: off Shamanad.
Speaker 5: It was the third game in three days against the
Speaker 5: D one school.
Speaker 6: They were just they had no legs, they were out
Speaker 6: of gas, and Syracuse just beat him by fifty. And
Speaker 6: every time you know, there's a TV timeout, I just
Speaker 6: kept laying it and laying and this is in past
Speaker 6: post and I was saying on the air and they.
Speaker 5: Just looked completely overmatched.
Speaker 6: The other example there was recently a Boston College Vanderbilt
Speaker 6: College basketball game, and you could tell early on they
Speaker 6: were calling a lot of fouls and that late in
Speaker 6: the game that game.
Speaker 5: Might get a little dicey with the foul situation.
Speaker 6: They might get foul that we could push it from
Speaker 6: like sixteen to seventeen, so that was another one.
Speaker 3: Are you talking about drill?
Speaker 1: It took me like ten seconds big duty?
Speaker 2: Did you have money on that one?
Speaker 8: No?
Speaker 3: No, I haven't even heard about this game.
Speaker 2: What happened?
Speaker 4: Did you tell me that Vanderbilt guy's just whacked up
Speaker 4: the guy with three seconds off when it was a
Speaker 4: dribble out?
Speaker 3: Yeah, I heard about that.
Speaker 2: Will that one builds slowly. It took me a while
Speaker 2: to catch on. I was like, what does he tell you?
Speaker 7: Oh?
Speaker 2: I get it?
Speaker 3: So all right?
Speaker 2: Before we get to the final two questions.
Speaker 4: What about Ace? You ask Ace about whether he watches
Speaker 4: the games?
Speaker 3: Ace?
Speaker 2: You watch or you don't watch?
Speaker 7: No, No, I'll be honest with you.
Speaker 8: Since I've gotten divorced over the last couple of months,
Speaker 8: it's been finalized, I have the TV on more on games,
Speaker 8: and I've watched a couple more games than I usually would.
Speaker 7: And I'll be one truthful with you. It's been a
Speaker 7: waste of time.
Speaker 8: Like all it's done is it's convinced me that I've
Speaker 8: wasted my time and more importantly, my emotions, like I
Speaker 8: love game that I end like I did this ready.
Speaker 8: It seems like I've already done this so many times
Speaker 8: in the past why do I want to go through
Speaker 8: this again? And it just doesn't help me at all,
Speaker 8: gil Like and this isn't a brag or anything like that,
Speaker 8: but like light now at wager talk, I'm sitting at
Speaker 8: number one in college basketball, I haven't watched the college
Speaker 8: basketball game. I finished Major League Baseball number one in baseball.
Speaker 8: I didn't watch a single inning of a baseball game.
Speaker 8: I think if I did, I wouldn't be able to
Speaker 8: do to profit like I have been able to in sports,
Speaker 8: because I think my opinion would affect my judgment and
Speaker 8: my bias would affect my judgment. So I just don't
Speaker 8: let that, you know, come into the picture. And I
Speaker 8: think it served me well. I love the guys that
Speaker 8: are able to watch a game and pick something off
Speaker 8: and take advantage of it at the betting window.
Speaker 7: I envy that.
Speaker 8: I know I don't have that skill set, so I
Speaker 8: don't even try to acquire it.
Speaker 7: To me, it becomes a waste of energy and time
Speaker 7: and like.
Speaker 8: I said, emotion to where I don't even want to
Speaker 8: invest that. I rather put that elsewhere to like, so
Speaker 8: I won't even have the games on rarely.
Speaker 2: It's interesting because this is what makes this is what
Speaker 2: makes betting on sports so interesting, right, because it's a
Speaker 2: spectrum of sports betters. And here's the thing.
Speaker 1: If that works for you, whatever works for you is working, yelp,
Speaker 1: keep doing it. There is There is no sacred correct answer, right.
Speaker 1: I'm just of the I'm not wired in a way
Speaker 1: where I can't watch it, but you are wired in
Speaker 1: a way where you can avoid watching it.
Speaker 2: By the way, I.
Speaker 8: Don't even want to know the results real quickly. I
Speaker 8: check my results the next morning. I swear on everything
Speaker 8: that I'll have my biggest bet on a Sunday night
Speaker 8: ball game and I will put on a movie and
Speaker 8: go to bed and wait till morning to find out
Speaker 8: because I don't even want it to enter my mind
Speaker 8: and have that affect me while I'm trying to get
Speaker 8: my six hours of rest, Like I'm had to make
Speaker 8: it that much a point to not let it affect
Speaker 8: the rest of my life, like that's my business. I
Speaker 8: handle my business, and then I don't want it affected
Speaker 8: me when I need to do something else. And I
Speaker 8: know it would if I was going back and checking.
Speaker 7: The score and if they lost, it would affect me.
Speaker 8: And if they want it would have affected me either
Speaker 8: way I don't see it as a positive, So I
Speaker 8: just avoided. For other people that could handle it, more
Speaker 8: power to them. And like I said, I envy that.
Speaker 8: It's just I'm not capable of doing it.
Speaker 1: Hey, you're probably better at life balance than I am.
Speaker 1: You probably are. We're definitely cut from a different species cloth,
Speaker 1: that's for sure, but you you probably a better life balance.
Speaker 1: Sorry to hear about your your divorce. Maybe it's a
Speaker 1: good thing. I don't know.
Speaker 2: I don't know how you feel.
Speaker 7: It's a positive. It's a positive.
Speaker 2: Yeah, divorce.
Speaker 4: If you get divorced, then you don't watch any games
Speaker 4: and think about how bad that marriage was.
Speaker 3: I'm just kidding.
Speaker 4: I'm just kidding, But I'm just saying, you don't even
Speaker 4: watch games and it still couldn't work.
Speaker 1: Usually usually get divorced because you watched you any gas,
Speaker 1: for sure?
Speaker 7: Yeah, yeah, exactly. This was definitely not man to be.
Speaker 1: By the way, we have DoD on the bingo board
Speaker 1: for a numbers game two, I'm trying to think what
Speaker 1: other really wish to ever related ones we have feik uh,
Speaker 1: that's not that's not youta hobbs dobbs, whole bunch of
Speaker 1: stuff on here. Okay, teaser of the week where Todd,
Speaker 1: what's your record? And what will and me are seven
Speaker 1: and five?
Speaker 4: The number one record on the teasers at eight and
Speaker 4: for everybody else is seven and five.
Speaker 1: You have a one game lead, Todd. I know you
Speaker 1: were very excited by that that comment right there, but
Speaker 1: it's a one game.
Speaker 3: And the fact I said I'm the number one record.
Speaker 1: Okay, Ace, your favorite two team teaser of the weeks
Speaker 1: are as the lines are currently constituted.
Speaker 7: Okay, I tease. I only tease the numbers.
Speaker 8: You know that the key numbers through the outs that
Speaker 8: I have that give me six point teaser minus one ten.
Speaker 7: I don't even lay minus one twenties anymore. If I
Speaker 7: can't find one, nine, one ten at six points, I
Speaker 7: don't even want to tease it.
Speaker 8: And I think with my approach, the only mathematical plus
Speaker 8: EVTs are available. I believe would be Jacksonville tight end
Speaker 8: with the Jets. But since I wouldn't have an opinion
Speaker 8: and I would.
Speaker 7: Just tease numbers, that's what I would do.
Speaker 8: But for the show, I want to have an opinion,
Speaker 8: and my I do like the Jets side. I do
Speaker 8: think the wrong team's favored in that one. I think
Speaker 8: that's a great teaser option number one. The total open
Speaker 8: thirty six, its drop down the thirty four. We know
Speaker 8: each point's worth more the less points expected to be scored,
Speaker 8: So I like that. I liked that they're home, and
Speaker 8: I like that they're getting through those key numbers of
Speaker 8: three and seven by taking the Jets.
Speaker 7: Up to eight eight and a half on a six
Speaker 7: point teaser.
Speaker 8: And then I'm going to pick a sign that I
Speaker 8: like on the points bread and this just adds a
Speaker 8: little insurance. And that's the Tampa Bay Buck Carolina Panthers,
Speaker 8: excuse me over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
Speaker 7: And the reason simple.
Speaker 8: As a kneemic as offense has been their top fifteen
Speaker 8: defense as far as passing success rate goes. And I
Speaker 8: think that's more than enough to keep this within the number.
Speaker 7: And I like that the total is also dropping from
Speaker 7: a high of thirty nine and a half now as
Speaker 7: low as thirty seven.
Speaker 8: They would take them up to eleven and a half,
Speaker 8: and thirty seven points are expected to be scored.
Speaker 7: I think that makes some sense.
Speaker 8: I'll lay my teaser with the Jets plus the eight
Speaker 8: eight and a half whatever we're using and Carolina plus
Speaker 8: the eleven and a half.
Speaker 1: Okay, yeah, the long The longers are slim pickings right
Speaker 1: at this moment, aren't they.
Speaker 3: Yeah?
Speaker 8: Yeah, they're just usually within the first day or two,
Speaker 8: the ones that they know they're going to get wong
Speaker 8: do they bomb bumped them.
Speaker 7: Them like they did with Dallas. That teaser protection that.
Speaker 2: They pull the ones that they noticed also a dead.
Speaker 7: Giveaway when they don't.
Speaker 8: We'll get last week with Thanksgiving on Thursday, when they
Speaker 8: didn't tease or protect the Detroit Lions. All the talk
Speaker 8: was about how that's the most teased game ever. Oh,
Speaker 8: it was so much exposure, so much risk, and yet
Speaker 8: they're not rushing. They go to nine or nine and
Speaker 8: a half, they're willing to take a position. To me,
Speaker 8: that's just the red flag. Again, I may be seeing
Speaker 8: something that's not even there, but that to me is
Speaker 8: just the red flag.
Speaker 1: By the way, we didn't get to talk about this
Speaker 1: game on this podcast, but that it was one thing
Speaker 1: that green Bay came out and popped them in the
Speaker 1: mouth and took that early lead and held that lead.
Speaker 1: To me, the most damning thing about this game, and
Speaker 1: I said this on the radio side, which is the
Speaker 1: lack of urgency of the Lions in the fourth quarter
Speaker 1: of that game when they were down two scores was
Speaker 1: so bizarre. I'm like, do they know they're down two scores? Like,
Speaker 1: let's pick it up a little bit, guys. And then
Speaker 1: they finally did get with a one score. By that
Speaker 1: time they had only an on side kick would have
Speaker 1: saved them. So I mean, that was very odd that performance.
Speaker 1: Who we got here dad?
Speaker 3: By the way.
Speaker 4: One thing, also, I understand exactly what Ace is saying,
Speaker 4: by the way about not letting his mind get infected
Speaker 4: by what he's seeing. And there's definitely something to that.
Speaker 4: I'm not saying that there isn't. I just feel for
Speaker 4: me personally it's better. And also I lose out on rants.
Speaker 4: So for instance, I had the Jets team total under
Speaker 4: four and a half against the Dolphins on Black Friday,
Speaker 4: NFL there brutal under four and a half first half
Speaker 4: with Boilet quarterback, and I will tell you right now,
Speaker 4: the Jets did not get on the Miami Dolphins side.
Speaker 3: Of the field.
Speaker 4: You know there's two sides of the field in the
Speaker 4: NFL that the fifty yard line is one side of
Speaker 4: the field. The other side of the fields the other
Speaker 4: the Jets had. I took under four and a half
Speaker 4: team total after I saw they were not moving the
Speaker 4: ball and they never made it onto the Miami side
Speaker 4: of the field in the entire first half, and I
Speaker 4: had under four and a half.
Speaker 3: By the way, it's.
Speaker 9: Hard to get to touch that effect the rest of
Speaker 9: your day, like the rest of your handicap.
Speaker 7: In the last full game.
Speaker 8: The game that I watched was last week when I
Speaker 8: had Nebraska on throwing the I don't even know if
Speaker 8: it was Saturday or the weekday game, and they ended
Speaker 8: up you know exactly, and I'm like, why did I
Speaker 8: even do that to myself?
Speaker 7: I swear that was the last That was the end
Speaker 7: of it, because it affected me the rest.
Speaker 8: Like I that was still early in the day. There
Speaker 8: was still so much to handicap, so much to bet on,
Speaker 8: and the fact that I had to go through that
Speaker 8: those last five minutes, I just felt like, it's going
Speaker 8: to affect the way I'm handicapping the rest of this card.
Speaker 8: And it's like, you, it doesn't. That's awesome that you
Speaker 8: could compartmental.
Speaker 4: No, I mean, at times, it doesn't. I've taken so
Speaker 4: many shots to the keyster at this point that I'm
Speaker 4: almost numb from from getting blasted on these ridiculous losses,
Speaker 4: and that I just have to go, Okay, you know what,
Speaker 4: shake it off, Go to the next bet, Shake it off,
Speaker 4: go to the next bet. But but the point is
Speaker 4: is the Jets did not get on the Miami side
Speaker 4: of the field and yet still had seven points. And
Speaker 4: I still don't know how they got to seven points.
Speaker 4: I think two of three a pick six book.
Speaker 1: But anyways, look at look how well, Look how well
Speaker 1: Ace that he got over that Vanderbilt game. Yesterday He
Speaker 1: hasn't talked about it at all yet today he oh,
Speaker 1: by the way.
Speaker 3: And Ace is right, by the way. Ace.
Speaker 4: I didn't bet the rest of the night after the
Speaker 4: after the Vanderbilt game because of that.
Speaker 3: Ye Like, I was like, oh, should I keep Should
Speaker 3: I keep going?
Speaker 4: Or should I just be like, you know what, that's
Speaker 4: enough for tonight and I And part of the reason
Speaker 4: was that was such a heinous loss that I was
Speaker 4: just like, Okay, you know enough for tonight.
Speaker 3: That's it.
Speaker 2: So it is interesting.
Speaker 1: It is interesting, right because betting is a reflection of
Speaker 1: the human condition. People handle stuff and deal with stuff
Speaker 1: the same way or approach stuff in different ways.
Speaker 2: I should say, by the way, I spent the last.
Speaker 1: Five minutes looking at a football field to make sure
Speaker 1: that the fifty yard line in fact splits a football
Speaker 1: field at half and it does.
Speaker 2: Check.
Speaker 4: Yeah, and you can't get on It's hard to get
Speaker 4: a touch down if you don't get on the other
Speaker 4: side of the other teams steal.
Speaker 2: You are correct, Yes, yes.
Speaker 4: Hushem found a way to give me a keyster blast
Speaker 4: the most ridiculous way of all time.
Speaker 2: Do you think a Shem is in the business of
Speaker 2: keister blast? You think that's up on his list?
Speaker 3: He thinks he does.
Speaker 4: He's like how sert a hot poker into the most
Speaker 4: sensitive regions against Todd when he has the greatest bet
Speaker 4: of all time a team to not get four and
Speaker 4: a half when they can't even get on the other
Speaker 4: side of the field. Okay, anyways, with all that being said,
Speaker 4: I agree with mister Ace. I'm also taking the Jets
Speaker 4: up to eight. I don't believe in the Jets. I
Speaker 4: can't stand the Jets. I can't stand their offense. I
Speaker 4: can't stand anything about the Jets. I hate them, I
Speaker 4: hate boil, I hate everything about them. That being said,
Speaker 4: their defense isn't that bad. It's pretty good their defense.
Speaker 4: So I will say there is a guy that I
Speaker 4: hate more than the Jets, and that's mister Desmond Ridder.
Speaker 4: Mister stare down who you're gonna throw to and then
Speaker 4: throw it directly to the opposing team, Desmond Ridder. He
Speaker 4: stinks and he still stinks. I don't care that they
Speaker 4: won the game last week. He threw a pick that
Speaker 4: was so ridiculously heinous. I couldn't even believe he threw it.
Speaker 4: And he's going to go into the Jet. The Jets
Speaker 4: could get some turnovers against him. It's going to be
Speaker 4: hard for the Falcons to win by margin when they
Speaker 4: have Desmond Ritter at the quarterback position. Give me the
Speaker 4: Jets plus the eight, and then in the second side
Speaker 4: of it, I'm gonna go with the Vrabels plus the seven.
Speaker 4: They're getting one, so I'll move it up to seven.
Speaker 4: I also am a little nervous. I think you guys
Speaker 4: are right about Derrick Henry. You know, he's taken one
Speaker 4: too many hits. I mean, how many of these running
Speaker 4: backs can take as much punishment as Dereck Henry has
Speaker 4: taken and then continue to come back every single year.
Speaker 3: You know.
Speaker 4: The only thing is I'm not as high on the
Speaker 4: Colts as Gilly is. I think the Colts are decent.
Speaker 4: But now you're asking him to win by seven on
Speaker 4: the road, especially in a game that's going to be
Speaker 4: like run, run, run, run the clock, run the clock,
Speaker 4: run the clock. You know the Colts are going to
Speaker 4: give it to Taylor like a thousand times. You know
Speaker 4: they're gonna give it to Henry a thousand times. It's
Speaker 4: going to be hard to lose by more than seven.
Speaker 4: I'll get Tennessee plus seven, but you're asking.
Speaker 2: Him to win by more than seven. I'm not Yeah,
Speaker 2: oh no, you're not.
Speaker 4: I'm just saying with the t I wouldn't take Tennessee
Speaker 4: plus the one. But if you've given me all the
Speaker 4: way up to the seven, now I'm saying, okay, I
Speaker 4: think I could.
Speaker 2: Do that, Willy.
Speaker 6: I thought about using the Jets, but a couple of
Speaker 6: things concern me. I just worry that defense is quitting
Speaker 6: at some point where like what are we playing for?
Speaker 6: Like why are we trying to rescue this season with
Speaker 6: Tim Boyle? Like you worry about them. Defense is all
Speaker 6: about intensity and if you just lose five percent of
Speaker 6: that it takes you from a really good defense to
Speaker 6: a less defense. So I do worry about that the
Speaker 6: last whatever third of the season, and plus Rogers could
Speaker 6: come back. I mean, you know, Rogers could be on
Speaker 6: the field Sunday. Can we spend more time on a
Speaker 6: dumber subject.
Speaker 5: I can't believe the amount of time. They're four and seven,
Speaker 5: about to be four and eight. He's not playing. If
Speaker 5: he is playing, they should fire everybody.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm just so sick of that.
Speaker 1: But yeah, I went off on it this morning, and
Speaker 1: I agree with you. Will I need to get doctor
Speaker 1: chow on. I need to like actually challenge him on
Speaker 1: this bullshit it is.
Speaker 2: So I'll just.
Speaker 1: Real quickly in twenty seconds. First of all, they're not
Speaker 1: going to be in playoff contention. Secondly, I've ruptured two
Speaker 1: of these. There still a rate of rerupture. We're still humans.
Speaker 1: As great as his surgeon might be in as great
Speaker 1: as that technique might be, cam Akers is the gold standard.
Speaker 1: He was twenty two years old. He came back in
Speaker 1: five and a half months. Aaron Rodgers thirty nine. He's
Speaker 1: saying he's gonna come back in three and a half months.
Speaker 1: There is if the Jets allow him on the field.
Speaker 1: It is the single most irresponsible thing they've ever done.
Speaker 1: Now here's here's the other. There's a performative part of this.
Speaker 1: Can Aaron Rodgers stand, take a snap, take two steps,
Speaker 1: three steps back and throw a football. Yes, if that's
Speaker 1: what we're talking about, and he wants to do that
Speaker 1: just to show that he came back, that is possible.
Speaker 1: I'm talking about actually playing football, where you have to
Speaker 1: scramble and plant and dart and go back and forth.
Speaker 2: And actually play the real position and get hit.
Speaker 1: You cannot let a You cannot let him get back
Speaker 1: out there, even if you are in CONTESGI. It is
Speaker 1: so ridiculous. And you have all these doctors online. Oh,
Speaker 1: I think it's very possible that I can do this.
Speaker 2: No, no, not real for ball, no stop it dumbest.
Speaker 6: Thing, right, Yeah, I totally agree. All right, my teaser,
Speaker 6: I'll just take the Jags down to the two and
Speaker 6: a half for obvious is it nine?
Speaker 5: Nine?
Speaker 3: Jacksonville? We're using nine. I had to lay nine down.
Speaker 6: You're you're manipulating the records to begin with, so I
Speaker 6: can try to get.
Speaker 2: That's right, who you have no credibility anymore.
Speaker 3: I'll take the Titans.
Speaker 6: I'll throw one little thing in there. I wouldn't be
Speaker 6: shocked if we saw Tannehill again. I think the AFC
Speaker 6: is starting to come back to the pack where the
Speaker 6: Titans can talk themselves and hey, maybe we can get
Speaker 6: into the playoffs.
Speaker 5: I don't know.
Speaker 6: Tannehill is an okay player. It gives you I would
Speaker 6: be shocked if we saw him again. Plus seven, What
Speaker 6: the hell, I'll break the rules. I'll go Cowboys to
Speaker 6: the minus three. If it lands on three, I get
Speaker 6: a push. You're not supposed to do this. I don't
Speaker 6: know if I would bet.
Speaker 4: It three and a half because we're using Dallas minus
Speaker 4: nine and a half other picks.
Speaker 2: Okay, Jesus, Jesus, what a police officer. This guy is
Speaker 2: all right?
Speaker 6: Jets plus eight, he's supposed to have jest plus I'll
Speaker 6: live with it if Tim Boyle is gonna give me,
Speaker 6: as Todd says, the old the old Keister shot here.
Speaker 6: I don't love it, but I'll just play the numbers here,
Speaker 6: Titans and Jets.
Speaker 1: I just want to warn the Steve Phesicks of the
Speaker 1: world that you can take away my sharp card before
Speaker 1: what I'm about to do.
Speaker 2: But I don't care. This is the week where they're
Speaker 2: no longers.
Speaker 1: I am taking the Jaguars down to what is it
Speaker 1: three about it?
Speaker 3: Dag Wars is down to three?
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm taking the Jaguars down to three, and I'm
Speaker 1: taking the Miami Dolphins sing it down to three and
Speaker 1: a half at Washington.
Speaker 2: The Dolphins right now, what's that physics, Texas?
Speaker 4: Yeaes Miami Dolphins. Miami Dolphins. They are not a long teaser.
Speaker 4: Oh Gilly, you're using it, and you're gonna take a
Speaker 4: beating from our dad's.
Speaker 1: Defense, from our dad's defense. If if the Dolphs, the
Speaker 1: Dolphins should be able to name their score against Washington.
Speaker 1: We saw the Washington defense against Dallas on Thanksgiving. Miami
Speaker 1: should be able to score one hundred. And I don't
Speaker 1: think Cincinnati's got any thing to push back on Jacksonville.
Speaker 1: So I'm yes, it's not wrong, gie, but I'm doing
Speaker 1: that one. That's gonna be Miami and Jacksonville as a teaser.
Speaker 1: By the way, television recommendation in season Hard Knocks Miami Dolphins.
Speaker 2: They're two episodes in. It is so good, Mike ma
Speaker 2: is it really?
Speaker 1: Mike McDaniel is so likable he's so different. He has
Speaker 1: absolutely exists at his own constitution. He doesn't care what
Speaker 1: anybody else thinks about his personality. He's hilarious, he's smart.
Speaker 1: Tua is super likable. Even Tyreek is super likable, but
Speaker 1: Tua especially.
Speaker 2: I love it. I think it's a great and by
Speaker 2: the way, Jalen Phillips just a ruptured as Achilles, so
Speaker 2: that was kind of sad to watch also, but it's good.
Speaker 2: I like the Dolphins all hard nuts.
Speaker 6: I gotta check it out. I saw the first fifteen
Speaker 6: minutes of like the first one, that it was late.
Speaker 6: I was falling asleep. I forgot it was even on.
Speaker 6: It just sort of came on, So I'll get back
Speaker 6: to it. I just had a quick question, Gil, because
Speaker 6: you're familiar with Washington in this field, do you have
Speaker 6: any thoughts just handicapping this game. That track is always sloppy,
Speaker 6: especially late in the year. Miami's a team that needs
Speaker 6: a good track. They rely on their speed. Is that
Speaker 6: something that you think is a factor that field being
Speaker 6: a mess.
Speaker 1: It's a good point, but in the wash no, okay, yeah,
Speaker 1: I think with that you have a defense.
Speaker 2: Yeah, you have to have some semblance of a defense.
Speaker 6: And I do think I just need to maybe think
Speaker 6: of playing an under or something like that.
Speaker 2: Oh that might be a play, right, because it's forty
Speaker 2: nine and a half. That could be. But I just
Speaker 2: like the law.
Speaker 1: The trading of Chase Young and Montes Sweat has reduced
Speaker 1: them to such little pass rush that it's just those
Speaker 1: corners suck to begin with, So it's gonna be tough
Speaker 1: for Washington to keep contact with them. But yeah, the
Speaker 1: under might be a play. Maybe that's enough to get
Speaker 1: it under. Which brings us to the final two questions
Speaker 1: of every megapod in history. Hece, we'll remember these two,
Speaker 1: the first of which is of the big favorites, which
Speaker 1: is the most likely to lose outright? Your candidates are
Speaker 1: the Cowboys nine and a half favorites at home against
Speaker 1: Seattle tonight Thursday night foot ball, the Miami Dolphins, as
Speaker 1: we just mentioned, nine and a half point favorites on
Speaker 1: the road against the Washington Commodes, the Jacksonville jag Wires
Speaker 1: Monday night, nine point favorites at home against the Bengals, Cowboys, Dolphins, Jaguars.
Speaker 1: Most likely to lose outright, Ace is.
Speaker 7: The Dallas Cowboys to night. I do think Seattle is
Speaker 7: live in this game.
Speaker 8: Not just because I lean that way, but it's just
Speaker 8: Dallas's history of a misstep when it shouldn't happen, and
Speaker 8: this is prime. They're coming off a game where they
Speaker 8: look great, a game that mattered, They had a couple
Speaker 8: big games in a row, and now they have Philly
Speaker 8: up next. I really do think this smells up a
Speaker 8: huge letdown for the Dallas Cowboys. And you know they're
Speaker 8: a five to zero team at home. You really think
Speaker 8: Dallas is gonna end up going eight no at home?
Speaker 7: I don't think. So.
Speaker 8: Look for Seattle to throw a wrench to that home
Speaker 8: undefeated record the night and get the money line win.
Speaker 1: That's mine they get there, that's mine too. By the way,
Speaker 1: I agree with A's completely on that one.
Speaker 3: Dodd, I agree too.
Speaker 4: I mean, if there was ever a team that was
Speaker 4: ready to make a duty down their leg, this is
Speaker 4: the team that's ready to do it.
Speaker 6: Will I'll go Commanders, just because you know, Miami outdoors,
Speaker 6: maybe in the cold, not a great track. I saw
Speaker 6: some questionability about Hill being at one hundred percent, So
Speaker 6: I don't love it.
Speaker 5: I don't think it happens. I'll just I'll take a
Speaker 5: flyer on Washington.
Speaker 2: Okay.
Speaker 1: By the way, real brief survivor question. There's eighty entries
Speaker 1: left in Circus Survivor and sixty seven started us.
Speaker 2: The intrinsic value of each of those remaining eighty entries
Speaker 2: is you're ready for this one hundred Let me get
Speaker 2: the exact number. One hundred ow places, sorry, one and
Speaker 2: fifty teen eight and thirty seven dollars and fifty cents.
Speaker 1: Okay, most of these remaining entries have been chalky. They
Speaker 1: don't have any of the big favorites left. Some do,
Speaker 1: but most don't. If you so, you didn't have Jacksonville,
Speaker 1: you didn't have Dallas, you didn't have Miami left most
Speaker 1: of No, you didn't have Dallas or Miami because you've
Speaker 1: used those. Jacksonville you're probably saving for their home game
Speaker 1: against Carolina later after Christmas, which you're already.
Speaker 2: Saving the Eagles for. By the way, I didn't include
Speaker 2: the Chiefs in that group on the road against one
Speaker 2: of the Chiefs. Right now, those still six.
Speaker 3: Points and a half.
Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, I can't excuse me, can't can't include this.
Speaker 1: And by the way, they've used the Chiefs too. If
Speaker 1: you had a choice, I did this with Will on
Speaker 1: air the other day. So you're reduced to a choice
Speaker 1: of these three games. Chargers on the road against the
Speaker 1: Patriots is choice number one, Steelers at home against the
Speaker 1: Cardinals is choice number two, and choice number three is
Speaker 1: the Buccaneers at home against the Panthers. So Chargers on
Speaker 1: the road, Bucks, and Steelers at home. If you had
Speaker 1: to pick up one of those three for Survivor, it's
Speaker 1: what now, Bucks, you said, touts Bucks.
Speaker 4: Yeah, well, the Panthers are just a dreadful team.
Speaker 6: Will I, even though I like Pittsburgh, even though I
Speaker 6: like the Arizona getting the points, I think it's Pittsburgh.
Speaker 5: I just I don't think they'll lose the game.
Speaker 6: I worry about Trash playing quarterback for Baker. I worry
Speaker 6: about a little bit of a coaching bump with Reich
Speaker 6: being fired. Sometimes you see that for a week. I know,
Speaker 6: it's kind of washes in the numbers, and I just
Speaker 6: I would throw up in my mouth before I had
Speaker 6: that much money relying on the Chargers to do anything productive.
Speaker 5: So by default, sort of, it would be the.
Speaker 2: Steelers ace those three games, Which which is the survivor play? Yeah?
Speaker 7: For me, it's the Steelers as well. I mean not always.
Speaker 8: Arizona statistically one of the worst teams in all of
Speaker 8: the NFL, but put them on the road and it
Speaker 8: gets even worse for them. So for a team to
Speaker 8: win straight off and power rating wise, I think it
Speaker 8: makes sense. Pittsburgh's solid there and defensively, I take this steel.
Speaker 1: I'm Todd, I'm with you on this one. I think
Speaker 1: it's the Buccaneers.
Speaker 2: Just because if I played the Chargers, they would absolutely
Speaker 2: lose if I.
Speaker 4: Can't if I don't, if you lose with the Chargers
Speaker 4: and you can't take the can't mortgage, if.
Speaker 1: I could just finish the thought and if I took
Speaker 1: but if I don't take the Chargers, they will absolutely win.
Speaker 1: So I don't want I just want us to end
Speaker 1: of the Chargers business. You're right, the self loathing would
Speaker 1: be off the charts. And with the Steelers, like Kyler Murray's.
Speaker 2: Just pesky enough that I don't want to live. I
Speaker 2: don't want to live through that.
Speaker 1: But with the Bucks, God, there's just nothing on the
Speaker 1: other side of the field that makes me worry, even
Speaker 1: with a new coach, right interim coach. So I would
Speaker 1: take the Bucks, even though I hate the Bucks.
Speaker 2: All right, final question. We live in a bizarre world.
Speaker 1: We must play a side on each and every one
Speaker 1: of these games, but we are allowed one free pass.
Speaker 2: Ace. What's the game you want no part of?
Speaker 7: And the Lambs? Yeah, there's just the line, the change
Speaker 7: of line movements.
Speaker 8: It just confuses me. Did the quarterback situation on both teams?
Speaker 8: To me, that's just the stay away game again a.
Speaker 7: While ago with clear Swan now Slams minus four and
Speaker 7: a half.
Speaker 8: This is one of those games you would have liked
Speaker 8: to gotten involved with where you could middle if you
Speaker 8: got out ahead of the market.
Speaker 7: Otherwise it's just nothing. I want to get involved.
Speaker 2: With Cleveland at the Rams. What it's no part of
Speaker 2: that game? Dad? What do you want no part?
Speaker 3: I agree? What is Joe Flacco the quarterback?
Speaker 8: Now?
Speaker 4: Like? Who's playing quarterback for the bre This is insane.
Speaker 4: I don't want any piece of second. By the way,
Speaker 4: on that show on the Miami Dolphins in game, I
Speaker 4: mean in season Hard Knocks, do they play the incessant.
Speaker 3: Three seconds?
Speaker 1: I know doing that, I know the song, but they
Speaker 1: don't use it as much in the end season Hard Knocks.
Speaker 4: I love the show, but it's just like every two second,
Speaker 4: the guy's walking into the building, like it's dramatic.
Speaker 3: I mean, he's just walking in the building. Can we
Speaker 3: call him the f down?
Speaker 5: In the summer one, they have the drama.
Speaker 6: It's one of the big storylines of who's gonna make
Speaker 6: the team, who's gonna be cut, So there's a human
Speaker 6: interest story. There's a little bit of drama with that
Speaker 6: where you have suiting guys you're rooting for to make
Speaker 6: the team and they could be cut any day. So
Speaker 6: that's that's an element that's not really there on the
Speaker 6: nd season one.
Speaker 1: But you know, yeah they have like yeah, but you
Speaker 1: know what they like. They cut back on that on
Speaker 1: the preseason one too.
Speaker 5: They didn't show that, they didn't show the cuts.
Speaker 6: But yeah, we're still a storyline, right, this guy's on
Speaker 6: draft or he's a seventh round pick and he's got
Speaker 6: kids and this is his life story. Well you're only
Speaker 6: mak They weave that into the storyline.
Speaker 1: That used to be the best part of the show,
Speaker 1: I thought where I think the best one ever was
Speaker 1: the Cleveland Browns one where Baker Mayfield and that and
Speaker 1: Hugh Jackson.
Speaker 2: That was so great, but you.
Speaker 5: Just got fired by Jackson State by the way.
Speaker 1: He did, Oh my god. But like that. I remember
Speaker 1: Rod Gardner when it was with the Chiefs because I
Speaker 1: always us tomorrow. I was like, wow, all these players
Speaker 1: take this so well when they get cut, and I
Speaker 1: remember Rod Garter of the Chiefs was.
Speaker 2: Like, why the fuck y'all cut me? It's like finally
Speaker 2: somebody got that. That's great.
Speaker 3: I like the one with Herm.
Speaker 4: Edwards was the coach and he was bringing a big
Speaker 4: sign to meet the bus, and I'm thinking, if he
Speaker 4: has enough time to write a sign to meet the bus,
Speaker 4: he's not doing his job. And I was never a
Speaker 4: big herm as a coach guy, and that led to
Speaker 4: many bets against Arizona State and the under I.
Speaker 1: Love that Cleveland Browns one man, do you remember when
Speaker 1: like I remember when Hugh Jackson were Yeah, because there
Speaker 1: was the who was the offensive coordinator? What was my
Speaker 1: man's name, Mark Trestman, No.
Speaker 5: It was uh he was Chiefs head coach.
Speaker 1: I thought Trustman was offensive order. Anyway, there was there
Speaker 1: was this dynamic where I remember when they finally, like
Speaker 1: Hugh Jackson finally made Baker Mayfield the number two guy,
Speaker 1: and I remember Bayfield being like number two.
Speaker 3: Like Todd Haley.
Speaker 2: Todd Haley, That's who.
Speaker 1: It was, the one that trust me, right, it was
Speaker 1: Todd Haley. And I remember thinking about Baker may Vad.
Speaker 1: He was like, these guys expect me to like rejoice
Speaker 1: that they gave me the number two job.
Speaker 2: It's like, I don't want this. I like, thanks, big deal.
Speaker 2: There were so many little elements to that one.
Speaker 1: Carl Kucikuchi Cook, Carl Okay, so you say you agree
Speaker 1: with Acetent Todd, You're you're on that Cleveland Rams game.
Speaker 1: By the way, Flacco officially is still the headline still
Speaker 1: say could start for Browns, could start.
Speaker 3: I mean he's probably an upgrade from.
Speaker 1: Dtr Adam si Adam Schefter's latest report with dtr now
Speaker 1: in concussion protocol. Joe Flacco has been taking snaps, been
Speaker 1: taking snaps as Cleveland's QB won and practice could start.
Speaker 2: He's also a could start all right, and then Ian
Speaker 2: Rappaport says, would get the starter. What is your choice?
Speaker 2: Will which which you want to part of?
Speaker 6: I'll go Van Dy Boston College, I'll go I'll go Chargers,
Speaker 6: Pat reasons wait second half of the Okay.
Speaker 1: Yeah, Chargers, Chargers Patriots. I am going to select the
Speaker 1: Lion Saints game.
Speaker 2: Actually I don't.
Speaker 1: Yeah, like Cleveland Rams was gonna be my number two,
Speaker 1: but Lion Saints, just because the Lions couldn't have looked
Speaker 1: any more listless this last game. I know they're on
Speaker 1: extra rest, and I think Derek Carr, like I, I
Speaker 1: can't stand Derek Carr always makes the wrong choice the
Speaker 1: wrong time. That that one you sent me will where
Speaker 1: he throws the four yard out. I let out an
Speaker 1: audible gasp watching that live. I was like, oh, that,
Speaker 1: I'll get him to the sticks. I don't know, but
Speaker 1: it's New Orleans at home. You know how that can go.
Speaker 1: But they might not, so I just I just stay away.
Speaker 1: I have no feel for the New Orleans Saints at all. Uh, gentlemen,
Speaker 1: that's all wet, that's all we can offer.
Speaker 2: I appreciate it to everybody. Ace. Great to see you, man,
Speaker 2: great to see you.
Speaker 7: I'm seeing you too, Gil and all you guys. Thank
Speaker 7: you so much much for having me on appreciation.
Speaker 2: Thank you for doing it, and we'll get you back
Speaker 2: for the lifestyle show.
Speaker 8: Yes, thank you, of course, of course, thank you.
Speaker 2: Pleasure, and I'm not going to ask you what you're
Speaker 2: going to talk about.
Speaker 1: It sounds like it sounds like, though, based on what
Speaker 1: you're saying, that this is a more serious version of
Speaker 1: Ace coming up on the Lifestyle show. Yes, okay, all right, yes,
Speaker 1: all right, and your Twitter.
Speaker 7: Is greekunderscore, damnbler.
Speaker 1: Greek, Greek underscore gambler. All right, Todd will thank you, gentlemen,
Speaker 1: appreciate it very much. I will have a bounce back,
Speaker 1: we ladies and gentlemen. I'm not letting these guys catch me.
Speaker 1: Thanks for listening, Good luck with all your best Week
Speaker 1: thirteen and then National Football League