WEBVTT - Beating The Book: 2023 Week 13 NFL MegaPod Betting Preview 0:00:03.720 --> 0:00:06.400 Thursday morning, November thirtieth, twenty twenty three. It is the 0:00:06.440 --> 0:00:12.280 Beating the Book Podcast megapod for week number thirteen in 0:00:12.360 --> 0:00:15.440 the National Football League. It's Gil Alexander live from Bark, 0:00:15.480 --> 0:00:16.840 Canada at the D. 0:00:17.000 --> 0:00:18.919 Where we've been recording all of our shows this year. 0:00:20.400 --> 0:00:24.160 Can't wait to introduce our guest this week, an annual 0:00:24.239 --> 0:00:28.840 guest these days upon whose shoulders? This podcast, in part 0:00:28.920 --> 0:00:32.839 was built first Welcome to our pillars though from. 0:00:32.640 --> 0:00:36.360 His mom's cork attic in Pittsburgh, PA. Todd wish nev. 0:00:36.440 --> 0:00:37.000 What's hattening? 0:00:37.080 --> 0:00:39.800 DoD Oh, I'm in a great mood. 0:00:39.880 --> 0:00:42.680 Vanderbilt plus sixteen and the guy files with three seconds left, 0:00:42.680 --> 0:00:43.240 down sixteen. 0:00:43.280 --> 0:00:43.800 I'm excited. 0:00:44.360 --> 0:00:46.080 Would you like to get that out of your system first? 0:00:46.080 --> 0:00:47.600 So describe it to everybody? 0:00:47.680 --> 0:00:48.960 What happened? You had? Go ahead? 0:00:49.040 --> 0:00:51.360 I have Vanderbilt plus sixteen and a half. They're down 0:00:51.400 --> 0:00:54.200 eleven with one forty to go. They're down sixteen with 0:00:54.320 --> 0:00:57.320 twenty seven seconds left. The other team, but Boston College 0:00:57.440 --> 0:00:59.760 is doing the dribble out. We've all seen the dribble out, right. 0:01:00.000 --> 0:01:01.480 I know what you're supposed to do. You're supposed to 0:01:01.520 --> 0:01:04.000 just dribble it out. Dribble it out, and then they 0:01:04.040 --> 0:01:06.080 throw to a guy with nine seconds left. There's two 0:01:06.080 --> 0:01:07.720 guys standing next to him, and then all of a 0:01:07.760 --> 0:01:10.800 sudden they start slapping at the ball for no reason whatsoever, 0:01:11.080 --> 0:01:13.240 and the ref calls a foul with three seconds up. 0:01:13.280 --> 0:01:13.800 Then I lose. 0:01:13.959 --> 0:01:16.279 Now give me a break. That's not supposed to happen, 0:01:16.400 --> 0:01:18.639 have you? I mean, these kids went to eight hundred 0:01:18.680 --> 0:01:20.880 AAU games. They don't know what a dribble out is. 0:01:21.040 --> 0:01:24.800 Come on, never, I've never heard you angry about any bet, 0:01:25.120 --> 0:01:26.720 angrier about any bet that you've ever made. 0:01:27.480 --> 0:01:28.760 It'sfuriating. 0:01:28.800 --> 0:01:30.480 All right, he's a guy out of your system. They're good. 0:01:30.520 --> 0:01:30.880 We're good. 0:01:30.920 --> 0:01:35.679 Now we can move on and from his lair where 0:01:35.680 --> 0:01:38.080 he does the Bare Bets pod with Chris Phalika, both 0:01:38.080 --> 0:01:40.319 college and pro versions and this megapod. You can follow 0:01:40.360 --> 0:01:42.399 him on Twitter at not v will hill By the way, 0:01:42.400 --> 0:01:44.360 you can follow Todd at t wishnev. 0:01:44.959 --> 0:01:47.039 It's Wilson Hillson. How you doing, Will? 0:01:48.360 --> 0:01:49.840 Boys? What's going on? I'm good? 0:01:50.320 --> 0:01:51.880 I feel like we say it every other couple of weeks, 0:01:51.920 --> 0:01:55.080 But man, we get to flip the calendar to December. Here, 0:01:55.120 --> 0:01:57.280 in my goodness, where does the time go. It feels 0:01:57.280 --> 0:02:00.360 like we're just sitting here end of August, Aly September eyed, 0:02:00.400 --> 0:02:03.640 bushy tailed, and now the season is just you know, 0:02:03.880 --> 0:02:05.680 a few weeks left, so man, it goes quickly. 0:02:05.800 --> 0:02:09.200 Two thirds of the NFL regular season behind us. It's incredible. 0:02:09.760 --> 0:02:13.120 I mentioned, I mentioned at the beginning this podcast was 0:02:13.160 --> 0:02:15.359 built in part upon this man's shoulders. 0:02:16.160 --> 0:02:16.679 We are. 0:02:17.000 --> 0:02:19.160 We're happy to have him on once a year here 0:02:19.200 --> 0:02:22.280 on the show for an annual appearance. Love having him 0:02:22.280 --> 0:02:25.560 still in the uh in the rotation. Ladies and gentlemen. 0:02:25.600 --> 0:02:30.240 You know him by many names, Johnny, the Greek Vegas runner, Ace, 0:02:30.440 --> 0:02:31.680 how you doing, what's happening? 0:02:32.760 --> 0:02:32.959 Yeah? 0:02:33.040 --> 0:02:36.040 Please stop dead naming me and being violent towards me. 0:02:37.280 --> 0:02:39.880 Just you gotta remember it gets twenty twenty three. You 0:02:39.919 --> 0:02:41.400 gotta be politically correct. 0:02:41.520 --> 0:02:45.080 I'm just kidding. But with that added the way, I'm glad. 0:02:44.840 --> 0:02:47.960 To be on and your timing could not be any better, honestly, Gil, 0:02:48.200 --> 0:02:50.160 because I'm red hot right now. 0:02:50.480 --> 0:02:54.760 Like you know how during the year, sometimes you're hot, 0:02:54.800 --> 0:02:58.120 sometimes you're cold. It just happens. Where right now, anything 0:02:58.160 --> 0:02:59.600 I'm touching is going good. 0:02:59.720 --> 0:03:02.680 Like actually got into stock two nights ago and I 0:03:02.760 --> 0:03:05.000 woke up today and he gapped. 0:03:04.720 --> 0:03:07.519 Up over fifty percent overnight. 0:03:07.919 --> 0:03:10.040 Like things are just happening where I'm like, I need 0:03:10.040 --> 0:03:13.000 to go downstairs and play Megabucks sometime today because I 0:03:13.080 --> 0:03:14.240 just can't do no wrong. 0:03:14.400 --> 0:03:16.320 So I think the timing is good coming on. 0:03:16.840 --> 0:03:17.600 What stock was it? 0:03:17.600 --> 0:03:21.519 If I might ask VFS, then Fast Motors, it's the 0:03:21.639 --> 0:03:25.680 Vietnammese EV Company, okay, which is he's like the richest 0:03:25.680 --> 0:03:28.520 guy in Vietnam and he created his own EV company. 0:03:28.840 --> 0:03:31.960 And yeah, I got into like five dollars in this morning. 0:03:32.080 --> 0:03:34.720 I five eighty and I looked up this morning it 0:03:34.800 --> 0:03:36.720 was gapped up to like eleven dollars. 0:03:36.760 --> 0:03:38.480 Man sins, we're talking about that. 0:03:38.520 --> 0:03:40.720 Let me just have a CNBC moment before I move 0:03:40.760 --> 0:03:42.760 on to football, which is I was saying this on 0:03:42.760 --> 0:03:44.760 a numbers game this morning, and Todd has a background 0:03:44.800 --> 0:03:48.520 in this industry. And I'm curious because Mark Cuban just 0:03:48.560 --> 0:03:52.120 sold fifty seven percent of the Mavericks for two billion 0:03:52.200 --> 0:03:54.800 dollars at a valuation of three point five billion, And 0:03:54.840 --> 0:03:57.520 my first reaction was, Wow, Skins got sold for six 0:03:57.560 --> 0:03:59.800 point oh five. They're one of the most valuable franchise 0:03:59.840 --> 0:04:02.920 in sports. Three point five million a billion pardon before 0:04:03.000 --> 0:04:06.080 basketball team. That's pretty incredible. But Joe Peta, who has 0:04:06.160 --> 0:04:09.680 spent a lifetime in finance on a Wall Street, he 0:04:09.840 --> 0:04:12.120 was like, actually, the way to look at it is, 0:04:12.760 --> 0:04:15.720 you know, money that he pulled out aside. He's like, 0:04:15.800 --> 0:04:17.400 if you look at the S and P five hundred, 0:04:17.760 --> 0:04:20.200 the appreciation of the Mavericks over the twenty three years 0:04:20.240 --> 0:04:23.280 that Cuban has held them is actually one hundred and 0:04:23.320 --> 0:04:26.159 twenty fourth out of the five hundred stocks in the 0:04:26.240 --> 0:04:28.599 S and P five hundred. If you had invested in 0:04:28.720 --> 0:04:33.520 Nike or even less sexy John Deere over that time period, 0:04:34.200 --> 0:04:37.640 you would have actually, it actually compounded more for you. 0:04:37.880 --> 0:04:40.080 So isn't the real lesson of the Mark Cuban thing, 0:04:40.120 --> 0:04:43.600 Todd beyond the ego of owning a professional sports franchise 0:04:43.640 --> 0:04:46.240 and still being able to feed your ego and have 0:04:46.320 --> 0:04:48.760 fun owning a sports franchise, But just from a seer 0:04:48.880 --> 0:04:52.320 monetary standpoint, isn't one of the lessons of this sale? Hey, 0:04:52.440 --> 0:04:54.680 kids in your twenties and your thirties, max out your 0:04:54.680 --> 0:04:57.479 furrow one k. Just let that shit compound over time. 0:04:57.839 --> 0:04:59.400 Do you agree with that assessment from Joe? 0:05:00.600 --> 0:05:00.800 Yeah? 0:05:00.800 --> 0:05:02.680 I mean, of course, I mean, everyone knows that the 0:05:02.720 --> 0:05:05.599 market historically is going to go up about ten percent 0:05:05.640 --> 0:05:07.920 a year over the last you know, ninety years or so, 0:05:07.960 --> 0:05:10.560 and and the you know, in the world of compounding obviously, 0:05:10.640 --> 0:05:12.760 you know, works for you when you when you're dealing 0:05:12.760 --> 0:05:15.120 with that. The the the thing though, that I would 0:05:15.120 --> 0:05:17.080 say is I think these sports franchises are on the 0:05:17.440 --> 0:05:20.240 high side of their up trend because I remember, only 0:05:20.279 --> 0:05:22.400 a couple of years ago the Bucks were sold for 0:05:22.400 --> 0:05:23.600 like two hundred and sixty million. 0:05:23.600 --> 0:05:25.240 I don't remember exactly when that was. 0:05:25.320 --> 0:05:28.279 But there's going to be a point where they've pushed 0:05:28.320 --> 0:05:32.520 it too far with the sports stuff, and it's going 0:05:32.600 --> 0:05:34.800 to be and then you'll you'll you'll see, you know, 0:05:34.880 --> 0:05:38.400 it like any other thing, even even charts that trending up, 0:05:38.440 --> 0:05:41.240 they have downswings too, you know, And I feel like 0:05:41.240 --> 0:05:43.599 we're just at we're closer to a top than a 0:05:43.600 --> 0:05:46.120 bottom on you know, I mean, the Mavericks selling for 0:05:46.200 --> 0:05:48.360 you know, evaluation three point five bill. I mean, that's 0:05:48.400 --> 0:05:50.480 just that sounds a little crazy. 0:05:50.360 --> 0:05:54.280 A little lot of me too, for sure, Okay, disagreeate, 0:05:55.480 --> 0:05:56.480 you disagree. 0:05:56.120 --> 0:05:59.880 So fun It's all these valuations are based over the 0:06:00.120 --> 0:06:03.200 last decade of free money. We had a zero interest 0:06:03.279 --> 0:06:05.520 rate for the last decade, and all they did is 0:06:05.560 --> 0:06:08.760 print money. All these valuations are just the reflection of 0:06:08.760 --> 0:06:09.800 that printed money. 0:06:09.920 --> 0:06:11.799 It's not reflection of the value of the company. 0:06:12.120 --> 0:06:12.960 As soon as. 0:06:12.880 --> 0:06:16.279 We run into where we could no longer pay our debt, 0:06:16.800 --> 0:06:19.320 that we're going to find out what these companies are 0:06:19.320 --> 0:06:20.080 truly worth. 0:06:21.080 --> 0:06:23.640 You agree, but surely. 0:06:24.160 --> 0:06:26.800 So you're saying you agree with me that the three 0:06:26.839 --> 0:06:29.039 point five billion for the Mavericks is a little crazy. 0:06:29.880 --> 0:06:32.000 One percent. 0:06:32.880 --> 0:06:36.200 It's it's warranted in today's world, But I think we're 0:06:36.240 --> 0:06:40.000 a few years away from realizing just how fake of 0:06:40.040 --> 0:06:41.080 a sale that was. 0:06:41.279 --> 0:06:43.440 It's all these valuations are ridiculous. 0:06:43.520 --> 0:06:47.440 It's also Nvidia Tesla, It's just ridiculous. 0:06:47.520 --> 0:06:49.599 Yeah, Peter actually said what you said too, which is 0:06:49.600 --> 0:06:51.440 it is backloaded, like he thinks. 0:06:51.200 --> 0:06:53.080 That the spirt, that the the uh. 0:06:53.440 --> 0:06:56.080 The jump in the valuation is probably backloaded to the 0:06:56.120 --> 0:06:59.600 last ten years. He did say that as well. Okay, 0:07:00.080 --> 0:07:06.160 Tom Todd Court stenographer, Please, I had my second bad 0:07:06.200 --> 0:07:06.760 week of the year. 0:07:06.839 --> 0:07:08.160 Let's hear it. What happened? 0:07:08.240 --> 0:07:11.000 Yes, Well, first of all, I apologize to the listeners 0:07:11.000 --> 0:07:13.600 when I couldn't write in week eleven because I had 0:07:13.640 --> 0:07:16.640 the injection on my elbow. I forgot to include those 0:07:16.680 --> 0:07:18.680 records and the records and somebody pointed that out. 0:07:18.800 --> 0:07:20.680 So I've got it all fixed up correctly now. 0:07:20.720 --> 0:07:24.280 So I appreciate whoever with that guy on Twitter who 0:07:24.280 --> 0:07:27.680 pointed out Anyways, the point is Gilly had an two 0:07:27.800 --> 0:07:30.880 and one, which is so ungilly, like mister eighteen in 0:07:30.960 --> 0:07:34.040 one or whatever ridiculous run. He was on there for 0:07:34.080 --> 0:07:36.320 a while, and I said it's going to come to 0:07:36.320 --> 0:07:38.640 an end sooner or later, and it did come to 0:07:38.680 --> 0:07:41.280 an end. He was fortunate with the Eagles minus three 0:07:41.360 --> 0:07:42.040 to even get out. 0:07:41.960 --> 0:07:42.960 With a push. 0:07:43.120 --> 0:07:45.560 By the way, before I go any further, I will 0:07:45.600 --> 0:07:48.360 say my best in game bet of my season, maybe 0:07:48.360 --> 0:07:51.800 of my last five seasons of my life, was as 0:07:51.880 --> 0:07:55.440 the Bills are driving down inside the twenty of the Eagles, 0:07:55.760 --> 0:07:58.880 they're down by four, as we know they were losing 0:07:58.920 --> 0:08:02.520 by four, and and I look at the book, it 0:08:02.560 --> 0:08:06.920 says overtime plus nine hundred. I'm like, overtime plus nine hundred, 0:08:06.960 --> 0:08:10.960 Oh yeah, what happens when they get a touchdown and 0:08:11.000 --> 0:08:12.960 the Eagles come down and kick a field goal? That's 0:08:13.000 --> 0:08:16.040 not a plus nine hundred, that's insanity. So I bet, 0:08:16.240 --> 0:08:19.200 like maybe like zero point two of a unit to win, 0:08:19.560 --> 0:08:22.480 you know, like whatever, nine to one on that, and 0:08:22.600 --> 0:08:25.680 of course we all saw I finally got a kicking, lucky, 0:08:25.760 --> 0:08:27.680 kicking thing. Of course, it should have never been a 0:08:27.720 --> 0:08:29.960 fifty nine yard or in the rain, because they were 0:08:29.960 --> 0:08:31.920 down already at like the thirty three yard line with 0:08:31.960 --> 0:08:34.439 plenty of time. But anyways, it went to overtime. That 0:08:34.520 --> 0:08:37.920 might have been the best bet of my of my year. Anyways, 0:08:37.920 --> 0:08:39.200 the Eagles minus to be ended. 0:08:39.160 --> 0:08:41.440 Up a hold on let me, I don't know if 0:08:41.480 --> 0:08:43.360 you explained it well, but if you missed what Todd 0:08:43.400 --> 0:08:46.200 said as the Bills were coming down to take the 0:08:46.280 --> 0:08:49.480 go ahead touchdown, which would have put them three up, 0:08:49.480 --> 0:08:51.160 and then the Eagles would have had the chance to 0:08:51.200 --> 0:08:53.120 tie it up, which is exactly what happened. It took 0:08:53.120 --> 0:08:54.840 a fifty nine yard or through the rain to do so. 0:08:55.160 --> 0:08:58.240 But yes, nine to one. And what it speaks to 0:08:58.480 --> 0:09:03.040 for me is is you're not in Nevada and you're 0:09:03.040 --> 0:09:07.199 in Pennsylvania. And I just can't emphasize enough how great 0:09:07.240 --> 0:09:09.640 it is to be outside of Nevada, because as I 0:09:09.760 --> 0:09:12.360 like to, as Will will and I have joked before, boy, 0:09:12.400 --> 0:09:14.720 when we get legalized sports betting in this town, in 0:09:14.760 --> 0:09:17.880 this in this state, it's gonna be something. We had 0:09:17.920 --> 0:09:22.320 a bets giving contest the seven seven Days at Viisen, 0:09:22.840 --> 0:09:26.400 so we were given access to Draft Kings app for 0:09:26.559 --> 0:09:29.439 seven days where we normally wouldn't be for this contest. 0:09:29.760 --> 0:09:32.000 And by the way, the standings were all for Cocta 0:09:32.040 --> 0:09:34.200 and I ended up going. I ended up like making 0:09:34.240 --> 0:09:37.040 over seventy bets. I was like thirty nine and thirty 0:09:37.040 --> 0:09:39.040 five or whatever. But some of the best bets I 0:09:39.200 --> 0:09:41.600 made yours is the best of them all. That nine 0:09:41.640 --> 0:09:45.360 to one was so sharp. We don't have that available here, right, 0:09:45.400 --> 0:09:47.720 And you guys had access some of my bets, like 0:09:48.040 --> 0:09:52.400 you know, oh, look, Oregon is playing Oregon is playing 0:09:52.480 --> 0:09:54.559 Oregon State. If Oregon State can score this game, make 0:09:54.559 --> 0:09:57.160 it a fourteen to seven. I'm totally betting Oregon right 0:09:57.160 --> 0:09:59.520 here at minus thirteen and a half. Bang they score, right, Like, 0:10:00.080 --> 0:10:02.520 don't have that readily available. 0:10:02.360 --> 0:10:05.360 In Nevada or more that we might have. 0:10:05.640 --> 0:10:08.559 But the third quarter bets, right, the Dolphins are getting 0:10:08.559 --> 0:10:09.959 the ball first against the Jets. 0:10:10.000 --> 0:10:12.719 They're minus two and a half. Thank you very much, 0:10:12.720 --> 0:10:14.199 I'll take that like that. 0:10:14.200 --> 0:10:17.760 That is, I so am envious of what you guys 0:10:17.800 --> 0:10:20.760 have available to you that we don't. And so again 0:10:21.000 --> 0:10:23.160 just that it's our PSA for in game betting. Man, 0:10:23.200 --> 0:10:26.079 if you're in a state that's not Nevada, so many 0:10:26.120 --> 0:10:28.240 opportunities that are better than any pre flop bet you 0:10:28.240 --> 0:10:28.840 could ever make. 0:10:29.280 --> 0:10:31.720 Sorry, that's why I think we should get an RV 0:10:32.280 --> 0:10:35.240 and we should. We should drive down to just past 0:10:35.320 --> 0:10:37.680 the Hoover Dam. There's an exit right there that you 0:10:37.679 --> 0:10:39.400 could sit on the side of the road, which I've 0:10:39.400 --> 0:10:42.319 done before when I was in say two, You can 0:10:42.320 --> 0:10:42.880 get all the. 0:10:42.840 --> 0:10:44.160 Arizona betting things. 0:10:44.320 --> 0:10:46.679 All we have to do is whoever whatever that county is, 0:10:46.840 --> 0:10:48.720 are we allowed to have like a TV on the 0:10:48.760 --> 0:10:52.200 side of the road there and have people's cars lined up. 0:10:52.240 --> 0:10:54.040 We charge everybody like fifty bucks or something. 0:10:54.200 --> 0:10:56.760 That would be a great business, you know, for for somebody, 0:10:56.760 --> 0:10:58.840 for those Vegas people who want to like, it's only 0:10:58.880 --> 0:10:59.800 thirty minutes, it's. 0:10:59.679 --> 0:11:02.560 Not that far thirty Hoover Dam. 0:11:02.800 --> 0:11:06.079 Yeah, there's nothing there. The problem is there's literally nothing there. Well, 0:11:06.080 --> 0:11:07.440 it's literally the desert. 0:11:07.600 --> 0:11:10.960 It's it's so funny too, because you are you are 0:11:11.080 --> 0:11:15.559 driving to one of America's, if not America's finest engineering 0:11:15.600 --> 0:11:16.720 feat the Hoover Dam. 0:11:17.080 --> 0:11:19.200 So as you drive there, like someone. 0:11:19.000 --> 0:11:20.599 That are you here for the Hoover the glory of 0:11:20.600 --> 0:11:22.080 the Hoover Dam, And I'm like, no, I'm just here 0:11:22.080 --> 0:11:23.559 to make a bet, buddy. I'm just going to cross 0:11:23.559 --> 0:11:26.160 the day and just plant my car in this little 0:11:26.200 --> 0:11:28.440 cove in the wall and in the mountain, and I'm 0:11:28.440 --> 0:11:31.120 gonna make a bet. We've all done it that I 0:11:31.240 --> 0:11:36.720 did it for like some fan Dual World Series MVP bets, 0:11:36.760 --> 0:11:39.559 not this year but last year. But the other part 0:11:39.600 --> 0:11:41.680 of your Nevada sensibility also is the one thing you 0:11:41.679 --> 0:11:44.319 can say about Nevada is MGM and Caesars will take 0:11:44.320 --> 0:11:47.120 a big bet. I forgot they don't take big bets. 0:11:47.360 --> 0:11:48.960 So you also have to factor that in. It's like, 0:11:48.960 --> 0:11:50.599 do I want to drive to Arizona to make a 0:11:50.640 --> 0:11:53.000 two hundred dollars bet on Christian Hobvier? 0:11:53.320 --> 0:11:55.800 Right, So there's that too. Anyway, Sorry, go ahead with 0:11:55.840 --> 0:11:56.679 the snogral. 0:11:56.400 --> 0:11:59.680 Okay, So anyways, the records Gilly Fowls from twenty three 0:11:59.679 --> 0:12:03.560 and ten, the twenty three, twelve and one will had 0:12:03.600 --> 0:12:06.920 a one and two really last week, he goes to 0:12:07.679 --> 0:12:10.400 eighteen and eighteen. Oh, by the way, both of you 0:12:10.480 --> 0:12:13.160 are seven and five on teasers. We lost the teasers 0:12:13.200 --> 0:12:15.520 with the Lions, so you're both seven and five on teasers. 0:12:15.800 --> 0:12:17.280 I go one and two. 0:12:17.600 --> 0:12:21.200 Also, my Jags won in my Kansas City Under lost 0:12:21.200 --> 0:12:23.720 and my Overbears loss. So I'm I am now eighteen 0:12:23.920 --> 0:12:27.080 sixteen and two and I am leading in teasers at 0:12:27.120 --> 0:12:29.719 eight and four, and then the guest spot. Ace is 0:12:29.760 --> 0:12:32.360 gonna have to hold up the guest spot. It went 0:12:32.400 --> 0:12:35.600 one and two. They're twenty fourteen and two, still very solid, 0:12:35.800 --> 0:12:37.120 and also seven and five. 0:12:36.920 --> 0:12:37.480 In the teasers. 0:12:37.520 --> 0:12:40.160 So that's where we are going into week thirteen. 0:12:40.400 --> 0:12:42.960 Okay, so I basically I sucked with you guys barely 0:12:43.000 --> 0:12:44.520 made it a betty ground, is what happened. 0:12:44.520 --> 0:12:45.560 We had a bad week all around. 0:12:45.679 --> 0:12:47.960 But I will say this, though I knew and I 0:12:48.040 --> 0:12:50.480 said this on last week's show, I had a bad 0:12:50.520 --> 0:12:55.480 feeling about that week. I didn't like anything that was Thanksgiving. 0:12:55.440 --> 0:12:58.360 Was the to me, was the worst slate of games 0:12:58.360 --> 0:13:01.200 in terms of a betting slate that I remember at 0:13:01.240 --> 0:13:03.839 having all year. I feel completely different about it this week, 0:13:03.880 --> 0:13:07.319 which we'll get into here are three reasons. Zen is 0:13:07.360 --> 0:13:09.360 America's number one nicotine pount. 0:13:09.640 --> 0:13:11.160 We use food grade ingredients. 0:13:11.400 --> 0:13:13.880 We have a wide selection of varieties and they all 0:13:13.880 --> 0:13:15.120 come in two strengths. 0:13:15.280 --> 0:13:17.160 Find Zen at a store near you. 0:13:17.360 --> 0:13:20.319 Warning, this product contains nicotine. Nicotine is an addictive chemical. 0:13:20.760 --> 0:13:23.320 Before we get into our best bets, lasting, does anybody 0:13:23.480 --> 0:13:25.080 maybe this is one of your best bets? I don't 0:13:25.120 --> 0:13:28.480 know anybody have a play on anything in tonight's Thursday 0:13:28.520 --> 0:13:31.679 night football game where the Cowboys are nine point favorites 0:13:31.720 --> 0:13:34.920 hosting the Seahawks, the totals forty seven and a half. 0:13:35.440 --> 0:13:38.120 Is it anybody? Is it anybody one of their three 0:13:38.120 --> 0:13:38.800 best bets? 0:13:39.120 --> 0:13:40.760 I'm gonna make it one of my bets. 0:13:41.080 --> 0:13:41.600 Ace. 0:13:41.720 --> 0:13:43.960 Yes, So first. 0:13:44.120 --> 0:13:47.080 Yes, sir, I'm a on the Seattle side. 0:13:47.160 --> 0:13:49.680 I think this is a great spot where I'm pretty 0:13:49.720 --> 0:13:52.040 confident in it that I'm betting more points than I 0:13:52.080 --> 0:13:54.280 should and that's the best I could ever ask for. Again, 0:13:54.400 --> 0:13:57.440 I can't decide how it's going to come out, how 0:13:57.480 --> 0:13:59.600 they're going to turn out the game. I mean, whether 0:13:59.640 --> 0:14:03.720 there's calls, whether whatever happens. There's a lot of randomness 0:14:03.720 --> 0:14:06.440 in Bob. But what I do know is that I 0:14:06.520 --> 0:14:09.280 do believe that this line's inflated. There's a lot of 0:14:09.320 --> 0:14:12.079 recency bias involved. We know how hot Dallas has been, 0:14:12.520 --> 0:14:16.200 not only winning and covering, but blowing their last three 0:14:16.200 --> 0:14:19.480 opponents out. They put forty plus points up in two 0:14:19.520 --> 0:14:22.160 of their last three games. They've covered each of these 0:14:22.160 --> 0:14:25.160 games by double digits. And more importantly, they got the 0:14:25.160 --> 0:14:29.440 Philadelphia Eagles up next, which falls for a classic sandwich game, 0:14:30.760 --> 0:14:31.280 and you. 0:14:31.360 --> 0:14:34.960 Already sold the books. Throw in the teaser protection. They 0:14:35.080 --> 0:14:35.640 bumped that. 0:14:35.640 --> 0:14:39.400 One up immediately through that key numbers, so he can't 0:14:39.640 --> 0:14:42.200 tease it down with that six point teaser. To me, 0:14:42.920 --> 0:14:48.560 just every signal that I look for pretty much earmph, 0:14:48.720 --> 0:14:50.760 and now it's just we'll Seattle'll be able to keep 0:14:50.760 --> 0:14:53.200 it close if they're able to get it done, and 0:14:53.240 --> 0:14:55.360 I think they are. You know, they're top ten defense 0:14:55.560 --> 0:14:59.640 when top ten offense. Excuse me, when you adjust FIRS 0:14:59.600 --> 0:15:04.200 strength the schedule in their passing success rate, which is 0:15:04.920 --> 0:15:06.320 enough to put. 0:15:06.160 --> 0:15:08.520 Some points up on this tough Dallas defense. 0:15:08.800 --> 0:15:11.560 I think Seattle's got a good, decent enough defense not 0:15:11.640 --> 0:15:14.160 to allow Dallas to put up forty plus on them. 0:15:14.400 --> 0:15:16.880 I like Seattle plus the points hoping to be able 0:15:16.920 --> 0:15:17.480 to get ten. 0:15:17.720 --> 0:15:20.400 I don't think I'll need it, but that's pretty much 0:15:20.440 --> 0:15:22.280 just what I've been sitting back at to see if 0:15:22.280 --> 0:15:23.080 I could get the ten. 0:15:23.200 --> 0:15:24.800 All right, when I'm going to jump it nine and 0:15:24.800 --> 0:15:25.560 a half anyway? 0:15:25.760 --> 0:15:27.560 Is it nine and a half now or nine? What 0:15:27.600 --> 0:15:28.520 do we got? Nine and a half? 0:15:28.560 --> 0:15:28.760 Half? 0:15:28.840 --> 0:15:29.520 Nine and a half? 0:15:29.600 --> 0:15:29.920 All right? 0:15:31.040 --> 0:15:31.880 Nine and a half. 0:15:31.960 --> 0:15:34.560 Okay, Todd, I can hear you. This is gonna be 0:15:34.560 --> 0:15:36.120 one of your best bets to this game, Todd. 0:15:36.600 --> 0:15:39.360 Unfortunately I have two plus nine and a half. 0:15:39.400 --> 0:15:42.440 Oh wow, I would I guess that? Okay? 0:15:42.480 --> 0:15:46.120 I look, I said last week, what is Dallas going 0:15:46.200 --> 0:15:48.680 to just win every single game by a million points? 0:15:48.720 --> 0:15:49.720 I mean, what league is this? 0:15:50.080 --> 0:15:52.160 I've never heard of a league where you can a 0:15:52.280 --> 0:15:54.640 National Football league where you just every single week, nothing 0:15:54.680 --> 0:15:57.160 bad happens and you just win by a million points. 0:15:57.160 --> 0:15:59.360 I mean, it just doesn't happen. And it was actually 0:15:59.480 --> 0:16:01.360 on thinks it looked like it wasn't gonna happen on 0:16:01.400 --> 0:16:04.600 Thanksgiving when Washington was hanging there at fourteen ten and 0:16:04.640 --> 0:16:06.760 then you know, the roof caved in on him. But 0:16:07.080 --> 0:16:09.840 you know, typically when I make these kind of pronouncements 0:16:09.880 --> 0:16:12.080 like you can't win in the NFL by one hundred 0:16:12.080 --> 0:16:15.000 points every single week, over and over. I'm usually one 0:16:15.040 --> 0:16:17.080 week early as usual, and of course I was one 0:16:17.080 --> 0:16:17.880 week early. 0:16:18.040 --> 0:16:18.680 In saying that. 0:16:18.960 --> 0:16:22.320 You know, but come on, you can't win every single 0:16:22.320 --> 0:16:24.480 game in the NFL by twenty five points. It's just 0:16:24.520 --> 0:16:28.320 not normal. And so and who are they being? Washington, Carolina, 0:16:28.400 --> 0:16:31.600 the Giants. Okay, the Rams was good. I'll give him that. 0:16:32.040 --> 0:16:36.800 But still, I've watched the National Football League long enough. 0:16:37.280 --> 0:16:40.080 You know, Seattle. I don't like Seattle. I can't stand Seattle. 0:16:40.400 --> 0:16:43.120 But nine and a half points? Are you freaking kidding? 0:16:43.120 --> 0:16:45.760 That's a lot of points in an NFL game? And 0:16:45.920 --> 0:16:48.120 I just don't think Dallas can keep winning every single 0:16:48.120 --> 0:16:50.840 game by a million points. So give me Seattle plus 0:16:50.920 --> 0:16:52.680 nine and a half. I I'll grin and Barrett and 0:16:52.760 --> 0:16:53.440 I'll just do it. 0:16:53.480 --> 0:16:54.720 But I think it's a good bet. 0:16:54.800 --> 0:16:56.720 Hey, Todd, did you watch the Vanderbilt game last night? 0:16:56.720 --> 0:16:58.560 But any Chane, Yeah, let me. 0:16:58.480 --> 0:17:00.440 Tell you what happened. They were down eleven. 0:17:03.040 --> 0:17:04.240 Will anything on this game? 0:17:05.400 --> 0:17:07.680 I'm going opo here. I will lay it with Dallas. 0:17:07.680 --> 0:17:10.439 Wow, they are custom built to just beat up on 0:17:10.480 --> 0:17:12.880 these mediocre teams. I do think Seattle's a mediocre team. 0:17:13.200 --> 0:17:15.760 I don't like their secondary. It's sort of a young 0:17:15.760 --> 0:17:19.520 and experienced secondary. They've been getting carved up here San Francisco. 0:17:19.600 --> 0:17:21.160 They toyed with them last week. They could have named 0:17:21.160 --> 0:17:23.080 their score. They really took the foot off the gas 0:17:23.080 --> 0:17:25.480