1 00:00:00,080 --> 00:00:07,400 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio News. 2 00:00:11,960 --> 00:00:15,560 Speaker 2: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keene along 3 00:00:15,600 --> 00:00:18,960 Speaker 2: with Paul Sweeney. Join us each day for insight from 4 00:00:18,960 --> 00:00:23,119 Speaker 2: the best in economics, finance, investment, and international relations. You 5 00:00:23,160 --> 00:00:26,520 Speaker 2: can also watch the show live on YouTube. Visit the 6 00:00:26,520 --> 00:00:31,280 Speaker 2: Bloomberg Podcast channel on YouTube to see the show weekday 7 00:00:31,280 --> 00:00:34,320 Speaker 2: mornings from seven to ten am Eastern from our global 8 00:00:34,360 --> 00:00:39,000 Speaker 2: headquarters in New York City. Subscribe to the podcast on Apple, Spotify, 9 00:00:39,360 --> 00:00:42,920 Speaker 2: or anywhere else you listen and always I'm Bloomberg Radio, 10 00:00:43,080 --> 00:00:47,560 Speaker 2: the Bloomberg Terminal, and the Bloomberg Business App. Global Wall Street. 11 00:00:47,760 --> 00:00:51,159 Speaker 2: Steve Weisman, Bloomberger Berman, Steve Weisman. If we get an 12 00:00:51,280 --> 00:00:54,480 Speaker 2: ed Yard Denny market, which is a melt up, like 13 00:00:54,720 --> 00:00:57,360 Speaker 2: he's calling it the Roaring twenties, he's got us out 14 00:00:57,680 --> 00:01:00,200 Speaker 2: of thirty percent out the next thirty years. If we 15 00:01:00,240 --> 00:01:03,680 Speaker 2: get a bull market of our childhood, how do you 16 00:01:03,760 --> 00:01:07,720 Speaker 2: adapt to that? How do you adapt to the good times? 17 00:01:07,840 --> 00:01:09,800 Speaker 2: If we get the good times, what do you do? 18 00:01:11,760 --> 00:01:13,319 Speaker 3: I don't think I really have to adapt. 19 00:01:13,440 --> 00:01:18,240 Speaker 4: I kind of believe in good times. You know, the 20 00:01:18,280 --> 00:01:20,800 Speaker 4: economy is fine, the Fed, at least at this point, 21 00:01:20,880 --> 00:01:23,280 Speaker 4: seems to have engineered. I don't even know if it's 22 00:01:23,319 --> 00:01:27,720 Speaker 4: a soft landing anymore. And you know, the US economy 23 00:01:27,760 --> 00:01:31,920 Speaker 4: is extremely dynamic. I mean, the only negative scenario that 24 00:01:32,000 --> 00:01:34,720 Speaker 4: I could construct, and it's not my base case, I 25 00:01:34,720 --> 00:01:37,920 Speaker 4: would just say, the probability of it's not zero. It's 26 00:01:38,000 --> 00:01:41,520 Speaker 4: just that it looks like it's possible. The US economy 27 00:01:41,600 --> 00:01:44,800 Speaker 4: is reaccelerating and then maybe at some point inflation starts 28 00:01:44,800 --> 00:01:46,280 Speaker 4: to go back up again and the FED has to 29 00:01:46,400 --> 00:01:47,200 Speaker 4: raise rates again. 30 00:01:47,960 --> 00:01:50,840 Speaker 3: That's the only negative scenario I could see at this point. 31 00:01:51,160 --> 00:01:54,000 Speaker 5: So where where are you, Steve on? Kind of your 32 00:01:54,080 --> 00:01:56,280 Speaker 5: FED call? Where do you What do you think the 33 00:01:56,280 --> 00:01:56,920 Speaker 5: FED will do? 34 00:01:57,040 --> 00:01:57,920 Speaker 6: What do you think it should do? 35 00:01:59,000 --> 00:02:01,880 Speaker 3: I think the FED should do nothing nice. 36 00:02:02,320 --> 00:02:07,000 Speaker 4: You know, it an engineered something pretty amazing, which kind 37 00:02:07,000 --> 00:02:08,800 Speaker 4: of shocking to everybody, including me. 38 00:02:09,720 --> 00:02:13,360 Speaker 3: The economy is good, you know, why would you? 39 00:02:13,440 --> 00:02:15,800 Speaker 4: I mean, look, the worst case scenario for the FED 40 00:02:15,960 --> 00:02:20,040 Speaker 4: would be to actually, I think cut rates, the economy 41 00:02:20,080 --> 00:02:23,160 Speaker 4: gets stronger, inflation comes back, then you then you're back 42 00:02:23,160 --> 00:02:24,240 Speaker 4: into the vulgar. 43 00:02:23,919 --> 00:02:25,480 Speaker 3: Situation of the early eighties. 44 00:02:26,280 --> 00:02:28,000 Speaker 4: The best thing to do would be just to patch 45 00:02:28,040 --> 00:02:30,959 Speaker 4: yourself on the back to clear victory. And say we're 46 00:02:30,960 --> 00:02:33,799 Speaker 4: completely data dependent and if things start to weaken a 47 00:02:33,800 --> 00:02:35,119 Speaker 4: little bit, they can always cut rates. 48 00:02:35,160 --> 00:02:37,079 Speaker 3: Otherwise, you know, do nothing. 49 00:02:37,320 --> 00:02:39,440 Speaker 5: So is that is that something when you say you 50 00:02:39,520 --> 00:02:42,200 Speaker 5: kind of wait, is June waiting or is even later 51 00:02:42,240 --> 00:02:43,400 Speaker 5: in the year waiting for you? 52 00:02:46,120 --> 00:02:48,600 Speaker 3: I don't know. I think at least till June. 53 00:02:48,680 --> 00:02:49,120 Speaker 6: Okay. 54 00:02:49,760 --> 00:02:53,720 Speaker 4: After that, you know, they probably do nothing anyway because 55 00:02:53,760 --> 00:02:55,960 Speaker 4: they don't want to be accused of getting involved in 56 00:02:56,000 --> 00:02:57,320 Speaker 4: an election, right right. 57 00:02:57,639 --> 00:03:00,400 Speaker 2: Steve Aisen were celebrating Amazon into the day. I did 58 00:03:00,440 --> 00:03:04,040 Speaker 2: a lot of down mathematics overnight, and it's so silly. 59 00:03:04,080 --> 00:03:08,440 Speaker 2: It has a fifteen percent tech exposure, including a tech 60 00:03:08,520 --> 00:03:13,160 Speaker 2: exposure including minuscule into Cisco where the street is twenty 61 00:03:13,200 --> 00:03:17,480 Speaker 2: seven to twenty eight tech exposure as well. How do 62 00:03:17,560 --> 00:03:23,000 Speaker 2: you approach this massive lifetime overweight in technology? Is there 63 00:03:23,040 --> 00:03:28,160 Speaker 2: a derivative strategy? Is there a portfolio optimization you believe in? 64 00:03:30,000 --> 00:03:32,880 Speaker 4: Well, I do think in overweighting or at least equal 65 00:03:32,919 --> 00:03:35,520 Speaker 4: weighting tech is something you have to do. But I 66 00:03:35,560 --> 00:03:40,440 Speaker 4: think there are some themes that are direct offshoots of 67 00:03:40,640 --> 00:03:44,440 Speaker 4: tech that really should be examined by people that are 68 00:03:44,480 --> 00:03:47,840 Speaker 4: not technically in tech. And so for example, because of 69 00:03:48,120 --> 00:03:53,119 Speaker 4: AI and the Nvidia chips which consume so much more 70 00:03:53,160 --> 00:03:58,720 Speaker 4: electricity and are hotter, the grid has to be improved. 71 00:04:00,080 --> 00:04:03,960 Speaker 4: Are companies that benefit enormously for construction, companies that benefit 72 00:04:04,080 --> 00:04:05,160 Speaker 4: enormously from that. 73 00:04:04,960 --> 00:04:08,640 Speaker 3: That are not tech companies. The data centers have to 74 00:04:08,680 --> 00:04:10,400 Speaker 3: be cooled even more so. 75 00:04:10,480 --> 00:04:13,720 Speaker 4: There are companies that provide those type of services that 76 00:04:13,760 --> 00:04:16,120 Speaker 4: are going to do extremely well over the next couple 77 00:04:16,160 --> 00:04:18,920 Speaker 4: of years. So there are offshoots from tech that are 78 00:04:18,920 --> 00:04:23,560 Speaker 4: not technically technically tech that really should be looked at 79 00:04:23,640 --> 00:04:24,640 Speaker 4: very close closely. 80 00:04:25,279 --> 00:04:27,760 Speaker 5: So, Steve, I guess a lot of folks, I'd love 81 00:04:27,760 --> 00:04:30,000 Speaker 5: to get your market call where you're seeing opportunity here, 82 00:04:30,000 --> 00:04:31,720 Speaker 5: because you know, one of the debates that we hear 83 00:04:31,839 --> 00:04:34,720 Speaker 5: often is just do I stick and try to if 84 00:04:34,760 --> 00:04:38,200 Speaker 5: I'm not there get to the magnificent seven somehow when 85 00:04:38,320 --> 00:04:40,120 Speaker 5: I try to find some values in other parts of 86 00:04:40,120 --> 00:04:42,840 Speaker 5: the market, maybe I've missed that trade. So, coming out 87 00:04:42,839 --> 00:04:45,040 Speaker 5: of twenty three, when it was such a hot close 88 00:04:45,160 --> 00:04:47,400 Speaker 5: to the year, what do what do you think about 89 00:04:47,480 --> 00:04:49,320 Speaker 5: tech and being a leader in this market? 90 00:04:51,560 --> 00:04:54,320 Speaker 4: You know, I think, look, I think we're in a 91 00:04:54,480 --> 00:05:00,039 Speaker 4: bull market. In bull market, people love stores. They just 92 00:05:00,120 --> 00:05:03,080 Speaker 4: latch onto stories. It's what they think about, it's what 93 00:05:03,120 --> 00:05:07,240 Speaker 4: they dream about. And if you can invest in something 94 00:05:07,279 --> 00:05:10,400 Speaker 4: that has a story that people can really understand and 95 00:05:10,560 --> 00:05:12,919 Speaker 4: get positive about, that's something to do. So tech is 96 00:05:12,960 --> 00:05:17,760 Speaker 4: one such story. Infrastructure is a similar kind of story 97 00:05:18,800 --> 00:05:20,719 Speaker 4: that's going to last a long time. And there are 98 00:05:20,760 --> 00:05:22,320 Speaker 4: a few others, and those are the things that I 99 00:05:22,320 --> 00:05:23,200 Speaker 4: would focus on. 100 00:05:24,480 --> 00:05:26,400 Speaker 2: I'm Steve, we got to go to the banks. You've 101 00:05:26,440 --> 00:05:28,920 Speaker 2: done a lot of work on this, you claim of 102 00:05:29,000 --> 00:05:32,120 Speaker 2: a certain movie years ago, and so it's the financial 103 00:05:32,160 --> 00:05:35,000 Speaker 2: integrity of the system. Is there a flavor of bank 104 00:05:35,040 --> 00:05:36,520 Speaker 2: where you think there's value. 105 00:05:39,800 --> 00:05:42,600 Speaker 4: I am not worried about the financial integrity of the 106 00:05:42,680 --> 00:05:46,880 Speaker 4: United States. I actually think it's incredibly healthy, probably healthier 107 00:05:46,880 --> 00:05:51,520 Speaker 4: than any time in anyone's lifetime. So I'm not worried 108 00:05:51,560 --> 00:05:54,880 Speaker 4: about systemic risk. There is risk in the banks in 109 00:05:55,000 --> 00:05:58,360 Speaker 4: terms of commercial real estate exposure, but that's really a 110 00:05:58,400 --> 00:06:03,520 Speaker 4: regional bank, not a systemic problem. I just don't find 111 00:06:04,240 --> 00:06:07,920 Speaker 4: banks a particularly interesting investment theme to be involved with 112 00:06:07,960 --> 00:06:08,279 Speaker 4: it all. 113 00:06:08,480 --> 00:06:10,919 Speaker 2: Why why is it that's really important? I mean, just 114 00:06:10,960 --> 00:06:13,240 Speaker 2: as a general theme. Is it just there's too many thanks? 115 00:06:13,440 --> 00:06:15,480 Speaker 4: I mean, first of all, you know rates looks like 116 00:06:15,520 --> 00:06:18,680 Speaker 4: they're going to stay high though. Therefore deposits are going 117 00:06:18,720 --> 00:06:22,480 Speaker 4: to slowly bleed out of the system into money market funds, 118 00:06:22,760 --> 00:06:25,080 Speaker 4: which means banks are going to have to remain tight, 119 00:06:25,480 --> 00:06:27,720 Speaker 4: which means that growth is not going to be is 120 00:06:27,760 --> 00:06:30,680 Speaker 4: not going to be great. The only positive thing you 121 00:06:30,680 --> 00:06:34,280 Speaker 4: could say at this point is that, assuming there's no recession, 122 00:06:34,279 --> 00:06:37,080 Speaker 4: credit quality will be fine. That's how they It's not 123 00:06:37,120 --> 00:06:40,920 Speaker 4: a story, it's not anything anybody gonna latch onto. 124 00:06:41,279 --> 00:06:44,640 Speaker 2: Do we have like another hour questions for mister Absolutely Steve. 125 00:06:44,720 --> 00:06:46,279 Speaker 2: I should thank you. We've got to get you back 126 00:06:46,320 --> 00:06:48,640 Speaker 2: on here. Long a discussion. We never even got to 127 00:06:48,720 --> 00:06:51,719 Speaker 2: private equity, private credit and debt, and I really want 128 00:06:51,720 --> 00:06:53,839 Speaker 2: to touch on that. Mister Iceman is with a small 129 00:06:53,839 --> 00:06:57,400 Speaker 2: shop Newberger Berman ye an important investor. We thank Global 130 00:06:57,400 --> 00:07:02,159 Speaker 2: Wall Street for your enthusiasm over get like Steve Iceman. 131 00:07:12,120 --> 00:07:14,640 Speaker 2: So I love this out on Reddit. Thank you so 132 00:07:14,760 --> 00:07:17,720 Speaker 2: much for this. I'm going to Hawaii in the winter, 133 00:07:18,400 --> 00:07:21,680 Speaker 2: where can I surf and not die? Joining us now 134 00:07:22,000 --> 00:07:25,760 Speaker 2: Hawaiian expert Cameron Dawson. Do you surf in Hawaii? Well? 135 00:07:25,840 --> 00:07:29,280 Speaker 1: I certainly don't. My sister does. She's Hawaii based in 136 00:07:29,320 --> 00:07:33,680 Speaker 1: a professional surfer. She's like pro, she's super pro. And 137 00:07:33,880 --> 00:07:36,119 Speaker 1: the reality is that she lives there in the winter 138 00:07:36,200 --> 00:07:37,600 Speaker 1: because that's when the waves are the big. 139 00:07:37,720 --> 00:07:40,559 Speaker 2: Have you ever seen her in these I've never seen 140 00:07:40,640 --> 00:07:41,880 Speaker 2: the ginormous wave. 141 00:07:42,520 --> 00:07:44,520 Speaker 1: You see it and you close your eyes because it's 142 00:07:44,640 --> 00:07:48,040 Speaker 1: darn scary. It's scary, very and very dangerous. 143 00:07:48,320 --> 00:07:50,320 Speaker 2: She gets like in the tub thing where the water's 144 00:07:50,360 --> 00:07:52,920 Speaker 2: on top of her and the whole the whole thing 145 00:07:53,040 --> 00:07:56,920 Speaker 2: hang in again beginning like beginners one on one surfing 146 00:07:56,960 --> 00:07:57,280 Speaker 2: in a wai. 147 00:07:58,240 --> 00:08:01,280 Speaker 1: Yes, yes, but I also so I'm rather afraid of sharks. 148 00:08:01,760 --> 00:08:05,840 Speaker 2: Yeah, I too. My surfing is to put the umbrella 149 00:08:05,920 --> 00:08:08,200 Speaker 2: in the my type. Paul, why don't you bring our 150 00:08:08,280 --> 00:08:10,040 Speaker 2: investment expert Camera Dawson. 151 00:08:10,080 --> 00:08:12,280 Speaker 6: Cameron Dawson joins us here. We want to talk about 152 00:08:12,280 --> 00:08:13,320 Speaker 6: these markets. She's at New Age. 153 00:08:13,320 --> 00:08:16,400 Speaker 5: Weelth she's the CIO over there, and let's just start 154 00:08:16,440 --> 00:08:18,680 Speaker 5: with I guess the equity news of the day camera, 155 00:08:18,720 --> 00:08:20,080 Speaker 5: which is we're going to get a pretty big tech 156 00:08:20,080 --> 00:08:23,680 Speaker 5: company reporting earnings after the close in Nvidia. So my 157 00:08:23,840 --> 00:08:27,080 Speaker 5: question is is tech going to continue to be the 158 00:08:27,160 --> 00:08:29,480 Speaker 5: driver of this market? Do we have to depend upon 159 00:08:29,840 --> 00:08:31,040 Speaker 5: tech to be the driver of this. 160 00:08:31,000 --> 00:08:34,480 Speaker 1: Market, given how big it is as a percentage waiting 161 00:08:34,520 --> 00:08:37,800 Speaker 1: in the index, it has to participate in this market. 162 00:08:38,080 --> 00:08:40,400 Speaker 1: A really good reminder of that is twenty twenty two, 163 00:08:40,520 --> 00:08:43,600 Speaker 1: where you saw smaller sectors like energy do really well. 164 00:08:43,880 --> 00:08:47,000 Speaker 1: However tech was lagging and that's why the overall market 165 00:08:47,040 --> 00:08:50,559 Speaker 1: was down. So yes, this market is very much dependent on. 166 00:08:50,559 --> 00:08:54,080 Speaker 5: Tech, so can I One of the things I need 167 00:08:54,120 --> 00:08:56,720 Speaker 5: to see is, I guess it broadening out of the market. 168 00:08:56,720 --> 00:08:57,960 Speaker 6: Participation get a little bit better. 169 00:08:58,000 --> 00:09:01,720 Speaker 5: We saw that in November and d Member of last year, 170 00:09:01,760 --> 00:09:03,440 Speaker 5: but I feel like it's kind of faded a little 171 00:09:03,440 --> 00:09:05,240 Speaker 5: bit and a lot of technicians will take you really 172 00:09:05,280 --> 00:09:08,520 Speaker 5: do need to see more participation here. How concerned are 173 00:09:08,559 --> 00:09:09,040 Speaker 5: you about that? 174 00:09:09,440 --> 00:09:12,200 Speaker 1: The key reason why the market has been narrow is 175 00:09:12,240 --> 00:09:15,720 Speaker 1: because earnings revisions have been narrow. So if you look 176 00:09:15,720 --> 00:09:19,160 Speaker 1: at the leadership in earnings revisions, the only places that 177 00:09:19,200 --> 00:09:22,040 Speaker 1: have seen earning sestiments go higher at the magnificent seven 178 00:09:22,160 --> 00:09:24,360 Speaker 1: in tech names, you look at the S and P 179 00:09:24,480 --> 00:09:27,480 Speaker 1: five hundred, earnings revisions have been flat over the last 180 00:09:27,520 --> 00:09:30,640 Speaker 1: six months. Equal weight earnings revisions are down, which means 181 00:09:30,720 --> 00:09:34,280 Speaker 1: for the average stock, you're actually seeing earning sestiments get 182 00:09:34,320 --> 00:09:36,160 Speaker 1: cut despite this strong economy. 183 00:09:36,240 --> 00:09:38,320 Speaker 2: I'm in the camp that in any great bull market, 184 00:09:38,360 --> 00:09:40,520 Speaker 2: only thirty percent of the stocks really work out, and 185 00:09:40,600 --> 00:09:42,280 Speaker 2: the rest of them are things you really don't want 186 00:09:42,320 --> 00:09:44,439 Speaker 2: to be in. But that gets to the point of 187 00:09:44,480 --> 00:09:46,840 Speaker 2: the vogue, and everybody knows I'm death on this. Where 188 00:09:46,840 --> 00:09:50,840 Speaker 2: do you stand on rebail? Am I rebailing out on 189 00:09:50,920 --> 00:09:52,840 Speaker 2: Microsoft right now? I don't think so. 190 00:09:53,320 --> 00:09:55,120 Speaker 1: Yeah. I mean it's one of those do you let 191 00:09:55,120 --> 00:09:56,000 Speaker 1: your winners ride? 192 00:09:56,040 --> 00:09:58,880 Speaker 2: Well, Danoff at Fidelity is not rebailing from what I 193 00:09:58,920 --> 00:09:59,280 Speaker 2: can tell. 194 00:09:59,720 --> 00:10:02,480 Speaker 1: I think that you have to respect the trend as well, 195 00:10:02,559 --> 00:10:04,560 Speaker 1: because a lot of these areas that have led are 196 00:10:04,600 --> 00:10:08,120 Speaker 1: still in very powerful up trends. So until you see 197 00:10:08,160 --> 00:10:12,160 Speaker 1: those trends start to deteriorate, you're better off letting the 198 00:10:12,200 --> 00:10:14,920 Speaker 1: winner's ride. That doesn't mean that you should add to 199 00:10:15,000 --> 00:10:18,760 Speaker 1: those positions necessarily, meaning you shouldn't chase them at these 200 00:10:18,840 --> 00:10:23,320 Speaker 1: valuations or at these levels of concentration or crowdedness. There's 201 00:10:23,400 --> 00:10:26,760 Speaker 1: other opportunities, but I think if you're looking to rebalance, 202 00:10:27,160 --> 00:10:30,280 Speaker 1: probably letting the winner's ride continues to make sense. Until 203 00:10:30,280 --> 00:10:31,600 Speaker 1: we get that trend deterioration. 204 00:10:32,120 --> 00:10:34,600 Speaker 6: Well, we've certainly had the focus on the FED. 205 00:10:34,640 --> 00:10:37,400 Speaker 5: And we're finishing up earnings here, a big earnings print 206 00:10:37,440 --> 00:10:40,320 Speaker 5: tonight with Nvidia. But it still feels like the FED 207 00:10:40,440 --> 00:10:41,720 Speaker 5: is driving this market. 208 00:10:41,760 --> 00:10:42,000 Speaker 3: Here. 209 00:10:42,320 --> 00:10:44,440 Speaker 5: We started the year with maybe six rate cuts priced 210 00:10:44,440 --> 00:10:46,600 Speaker 5: in looking at the work function. Now we're down to 211 00:10:46,800 --> 00:10:47,640 Speaker 5: something less than that. 212 00:10:47,600 --> 00:10:48,200 Speaker 6: Three or four. 213 00:10:48,640 --> 00:10:50,840 Speaker 5: How important or what do you think the FED will do? 214 00:10:50,880 --> 00:10:53,240 Speaker 5: What do you think it should do this year? Because 215 00:10:53,240 --> 00:10:54,760 Speaker 5: that's still important for these markets. 216 00:10:55,160 --> 00:10:58,559 Speaker 1: I think there's actually very little urgency for the FED 217 00:10:58,600 --> 00:11:02,880 Speaker 1: to act. How strong economic data has been given the 218 00:11:02,960 --> 00:11:06,640 Speaker 1: fact that you're seeing a reacceleration in some cyclical data. 219 00:11:07,040 --> 00:11:12,040 Speaker 1: Pmis are turning higher. So with that data backdrop, for 220 00:11:12,120 --> 00:11:16,280 Speaker 1: them to move to cut quickly, they would risk possibly 221 00:11:16,320 --> 00:11:20,400 Speaker 1: restoking inflation, which just means status quo and keeping rates 222 00:11:20,400 --> 00:11:23,359 Speaker 1: where they are is actually the lower risk option yesterday. 223 00:11:23,000 --> 00:11:26,360 Speaker 2: With Synergy Tuesday, and I'm going to suggest the word 224 00:11:26,360 --> 00:11:29,920 Speaker 2: out there is scale. If I identify then I want 225 00:11:29,920 --> 00:11:33,360 Speaker 2: to be advantaged by scale. How do you approach that 226 00:11:33,440 --> 00:11:36,719 Speaker 2: within a portfolio? How do you You're not going to 227 00:11:36,800 --> 00:11:39,320 Speaker 2: guess the next M and A transaction, but on a 228 00:11:39,360 --> 00:11:42,679 Speaker 2: sector basis, how do you prepare for M and A 229 00:11:42,800 --> 00:11:44,680 Speaker 2: or is it just something you can't control, it's just 230 00:11:44,760 --> 00:11:45,160 Speaker 2: out there. 231 00:11:45,600 --> 00:11:48,160 Speaker 1: Well, I think that if you are looking for smaller 232 00:11:48,200 --> 00:11:50,480 Speaker 1: companies that are getting bought out, you're starting to see 233 00:11:50,520 --> 00:11:52,560 Speaker 1: a big tickup in M and A and that is 234 00:11:52,600 --> 00:11:56,119 Speaker 1: supported by big cash balances. Companies still sitting. 235 00:11:55,840 --> 00:11:59,040 Speaker 2: On casut Sure, yesterday's it's a hockey stick. 236 00:11:59,280 --> 00:12:01,240 Speaker 1: It is a hockey stick. And it's also good to 237 00:12:01,280 --> 00:12:04,320 Speaker 1: remember that that cash is also earning five percent right now. 238 00:12:04,640 --> 00:12:07,880 Speaker 1: It's one of the reasons why net interest expense is 239 00:12:08,080 --> 00:12:11,760 Speaker 1: down over the last year. It's running down thirty six percent. 240 00:12:11,840 --> 00:12:15,560 Speaker 1: That's never happened during a rate hiking cycle. And this 241 00:12:15,720 --> 00:12:18,440 Speaker 1: just shows you how topsy turvy this cycle is. High 242 00:12:18,440 --> 00:12:22,800 Speaker 1: cash balances, less exposure to short term debt, and result 243 00:12:22,840 --> 00:12:24,840 Speaker 1: being is that you're making more money on your cash 244 00:12:24,880 --> 00:12:26,080 Speaker 1: than you're seeing your interest Costobs. 245 00:12:26,440 --> 00:12:28,680 Speaker 2: We have a five percent interest rate and a hockey 246 00:12:28,679 --> 00:12:30,920 Speaker 2: stick that's called a CCM five stride. 247 00:12:31,280 --> 00:12:33,640 Speaker 6: Oh there you go. No, I've just heard that that's the. 248 00:12:34,000 --> 00:12:37,800 Speaker 2: Rich kids had CCM. John Lloyd had a CCM five. 249 00:12:37,640 --> 00:12:38,240 Speaker 6: Straight I did. 250 00:12:38,760 --> 00:12:41,720 Speaker 5: So what do we do here, Cameron? For new ideas? 251 00:12:41,800 --> 00:12:43,400 Speaker 5: What's what's a new idea from you? Like what have 252 00:12:43,440 --> 00:12:46,040 Speaker 5: you been telling your clients here? Maybe he's starting out 253 00:12:46,080 --> 00:12:48,360 Speaker 5: twenty four, what's something new, because otherwise I'm just going 254 00:12:48,440 --> 00:12:50,280 Speaker 5: to stick my money and my two year treasury at 255 00:12:50,280 --> 00:12:51,200 Speaker 5: four point six percent. 256 00:12:51,480 --> 00:12:55,120 Speaker 1: We are finding names within healthcare, names within biotech. That's 257 00:12:55,320 --> 00:12:57,760 Speaker 1: areas where you're starting to see some signs of life. 258 00:12:57,800 --> 00:13:01,520 Speaker 1: Biotech has been in a bear market for two years of. 259 00:13:01,480 --> 00:13:02,480 Speaker 2: Really I didn't know that. 260 00:13:03,240 --> 00:13:06,720 Speaker 1: It's been absolutely ugly. So actually across the capital stock, 261 00:13:06,760 --> 00:13:09,840 Speaker 1: whether we're looking at equities or even within private markets, 262 00:13:10,080 --> 00:13:13,520 Speaker 1: we're seeing a lot of opportunity within healthcare and biotech, 263 00:13:13,760 --> 00:13:16,520 Speaker 1: just areas that have been left behind and valuations aren't 264 00:13:16,520 --> 00:13:19,319 Speaker 1: too stretched, and notably, positioning isn't crowded. 265 00:13:19,440 --> 00:13:21,520 Speaker 2: Do you buy week dollar international? I mean in the 266 00:13:21,520 --> 00:13:24,319 Speaker 2: old days, you know, is religion? If five percent of 267 00:13:24,360 --> 00:13:27,880 Speaker 2: your portfolio international, that worked out, But you know, like, 268 00:13:28,160 --> 00:13:30,920 Speaker 2: do you just stick with us exceptionalism in large cap 269 00:13:31,000 --> 00:13:32,479 Speaker 2: or is there a new edge theory? 270 00:13:33,000 --> 00:13:37,120 Speaker 1: We have been underweight international, we're now neutral. You're right, 271 00:13:37,160 --> 00:13:40,840 Speaker 1: the dollar is absolutely imperative. The only time that you 272 00:13:40,920 --> 00:13:45,760 Speaker 1: have seen major international bowl market is in periods of 273 00:13:45,880 --> 00:13:49,560 Speaker 1: major dollar bear markets, the two thousands, the mid eighties. 274 00:13:50,000 --> 00:13:52,400 Speaker 1: If you don't have a major dollar bear, you will 275 00:13:52,440 --> 00:13:54,080 Speaker 1: not have an international bowl. 276 00:13:54,040 --> 00:13:58,480 Speaker 2: Paul Malaysian ring it. Yes, you know we saw that. 277 00:13:58,840 --> 00:14:01,480 Speaker 2: A reporter in Dubai ca me up and she said, 278 00:14:01,520 --> 00:14:05,280 Speaker 2: a stupid Malaysian riggit new weakness. That's what we're talking about, right, 279 00:14:05,400 --> 00:14:09,600 Speaker 2: very good. I'm just doing that to impress Cam's surfing 280 00:14:09,640 --> 00:14:10,720 Speaker 2: in Malaysia after all. 281 00:14:10,800 --> 00:14:15,319 Speaker 5: Exactly, so, we're pretty much done earnings here, about eighty 282 00:14:15,320 --> 00:14:16,960 Speaker 5: percent of the way through. We got some retail names 283 00:14:16,960 --> 00:14:19,680 Speaker 5: still to report. Anything you took away from this earning 284 00:14:19,720 --> 00:14:22,040 Speaker 5: cycle that made it more or less bullshit, maybe just 285 00:14:22,080 --> 00:14:23,040 Speaker 5: change your outlook here. 286 00:14:23,360 --> 00:14:25,880 Speaker 1: I think the one key message is that pricing power 287 00:14:25,960 --> 00:14:28,840 Speaker 1: is really starting to fade, mostly on the good side 288 00:14:28,840 --> 00:14:31,400 Speaker 1: of things. You're starting to see where you were running 289 00:14:31,440 --> 00:14:34,360 Speaker 1: at high single digit pricing increases, that's now down to 290 00:14:34,600 --> 00:14:38,080 Speaker 1: low single digits, which just means that the estimates for 291 00:14:38,280 --> 00:14:41,440 Speaker 1: revenue growth of an acceleration in twenty four and twenty 292 00:14:41,480 --> 00:14:44,560 Speaker 1: five that are currently baked in may be a little 293 00:14:44,600 --> 00:14:49,120 Speaker 1: bit difficult. Then the question is does pricing ceilings hit 294 00:14:49,280 --> 00:14:54,120 Speaker 1: services like it's hit goods services? Inflation is still very high. 295 00:14:54,280 --> 00:14:58,120 Speaker 1: Look with Tony from Marriott talking about still strong pricing 296 00:14:58,160 --> 00:15:00,480 Speaker 1: growth is that able to be stained? 297 00:15:01,360 --> 00:15:03,320 Speaker 5: So, I mean, I think what we heard from Tony, 298 00:15:03,400 --> 00:15:06,760 Speaker 5: I mean, they're still seeing some pretty strong demand. We're 299 00:15:06,760 --> 00:15:09,200 Speaker 5: hearing it from the cruise companies as well. So it 300 00:15:09,280 --> 00:15:11,640 Speaker 5: seems like the consumer's in good shape. Is that something 301 00:15:11,680 --> 00:15:14,040 Speaker 5: you're banking on for twenty twenty four because if the 302 00:15:14,040 --> 00:15:16,840 Speaker 5: consumer were to pull back, obviously that would be something 303 00:15:16,880 --> 00:15:18,960 Speaker 5: that we haven't seen just in the recent past. 304 00:15:19,440 --> 00:15:21,840 Speaker 1: Consumers will continue to be able to spend as long 305 00:15:21,840 --> 00:15:24,600 Speaker 1: as they have jobs. Real wage growth has turned positive, 306 00:15:24,680 --> 00:15:28,240 Speaker 1: which is supporting consumer spending. But they are starting to 307 00:15:28,440 --> 00:15:32,080 Speaker 1: push back on some of these price price increases. Walmart 308 00:15:32,120 --> 00:15:35,320 Speaker 1: called it choicefulness. They're being very select. 309 00:15:35,120 --> 00:15:37,040 Speaker 2: Driving me this is like the new word. 310 00:15:37,160 --> 00:15:39,680 Speaker 1: Come on, But prices are crazy. I was looking at 311 00:15:39,720 --> 00:15:43,000 Speaker 1: Pearl Gym tickets and they're forty eight thousand dollars. At 312 00:15:43,000 --> 00:15:45,880 Speaker 1: a certain point, when do people hit a ceiling and 313 00:15:46,280 --> 00:15:49,040 Speaker 1: being able to be able to afford these kind of experiences. 314 00:15:49,160 --> 00:15:51,760 Speaker 2: Yeah, we got to meld in our two great interviews here, Paul. 315 00:15:51,840 --> 00:15:54,960 Speaker 2: I mean, I got the Marriotte co Olina Beach Club 316 00:15:55,040 --> 00:15:59,560 Speaker 2: in Waho. It's like seven hundred bucks a night after fieves. Yeah, 317 00:16:00,000 --> 00:16:01,760 Speaker 2: I mean it's like sid I mean, this is the 318 00:16:01,840 --> 00:16:04,880 Speaker 2: new luxury YEP where Tony was staying in the pearl jam. 319 00:16:04,960 --> 00:16:06,320 Speaker 6: Then you've really got to dig in your pocket. 320 00:16:06,680 --> 00:16:09,160 Speaker 2: Well, the concert tickets I've given up and half that. 321 00:16:09,960 --> 00:16:12,080 Speaker 2: I mean you're you're better at that. Yeah, I mean 322 00:16:12,120 --> 00:16:16,080 Speaker 2: I don't. To me, it's like a consortium or something. 323 00:16:16,360 --> 00:16:19,040 Speaker 5: It's basically monopoly effect. 324 00:16:19,480 --> 00:16:21,920 Speaker 2: What are you not doing here, Cameron, quickly here out 325 00:16:21,920 --> 00:16:23,680 Speaker 2: of time. But what's the number one thing you want 326 00:16:23,720 --> 00:16:24,840 Speaker 2: to avoid doing? 327 00:16:25,400 --> 00:16:29,120 Speaker 1: I think chasing very liquidity sensitive, low balance sheet or 328 00:16:29,200 --> 00:16:32,000 Speaker 1: low quality balance sheet names. They've run a lot over 329 00:16:32,040 --> 00:16:34,880 Speaker 1: the last couple of months in pricing in the expectation 330 00:16:35,000 --> 00:16:37,800 Speaker 1: for an easier FED. If the FED doesn't deliver, interest 331 00:16:37,880 --> 00:16:40,080 Speaker 1: rates goes up, those are going to reverse. 332 00:16:40,120 --> 00:16:42,960 Speaker 2: We need a photo of you surfing. It'll stay just 333 00:16:43,080 --> 00:16:46,360 Speaker 2: we won't put it social. It won't go out on Instagram. 334 00:16:46,520 --> 00:16:49,440 Speaker 2: Promise it won't go out. I promise. 335 00:16:49,600 --> 00:16:51,280 Speaker 1: I have an old one from when I was a kid. 336 00:16:51,320 --> 00:16:54,480 Speaker 2: All all, we need a new one camera Dawson surfing 337 00:16:54,520 --> 00:16:58,200 Speaker 2: from why Good Morning America, Cameron Dawson, thank you so 338 00:16:58,280 --> 00:17:00,240 Speaker 2: much with new Edge on our way to Hawaii. We're 339 00:17:00,240 --> 00:17:07,040 Speaker 2: great to get her in here quickly. Today, I thought 340 00:17:07,040 --> 00:17:09,960 Speaker 2: of market Patel. I think it was yesterday, Paul, during 341 00:17:10,040 --> 00:17:13,360 Speaker 2: Synergy Tuesday. I mean Walmart's out home depots out what's 342 00:17:13,359 --> 00:17:17,040 Speaker 2: a two by fore cost out and outa uh? And 343 00:17:17,119 --> 00:17:21,800 Speaker 2: all that mattered was middle single digit, higher single digit 344 00:17:22,480 --> 00:17:26,960 Speaker 2: dividend increase. Use of cash market, Patelan is a high 345 00:17:27,000 --> 00:17:31,240 Speaker 2: ground down nests with Allspring Global Investments long ago and 346 00:17:31,359 --> 00:17:35,480 Speaker 2: far away with mister Karay at Pioneer Market, Pateel, what 347 00:17:35,520 --> 00:17:37,920 Speaker 2: did you learn from phil Karay? He was a giant. 348 00:17:38,200 --> 00:17:39,959 Speaker 2: I used to go up the elevator with him at 349 00:17:40,000 --> 00:17:45,040 Speaker 2: sixty State Street. What did you learn from Philip Karay? Well? 350 00:17:45,080 --> 00:17:48,520 Speaker 7: I think that a creative open mind. I'm interested in 351 00:17:48,720 --> 00:17:51,879 Speaker 7: all kinds of different things. Really was the nature of 352 00:17:51,920 --> 00:17:55,160 Speaker 7: his brilliance, A flexible way of thinking. And we don't 353 00:17:55,160 --> 00:17:57,960 Speaker 7: see a lot of that today. Investments in other parts 354 00:17:57,960 --> 00:18:00,360 Speaker 7: of the area amazing. 355 00:18:00,600 --> 00:18:03,560 Speaker 2: It's become cookie cutter versus the entrepreneurial days of John 356 00:18:03,600 --> 00:18:07,680 Speaker 2: Templeton and mister Kerrey Margie used to cash right now. 357 00:18:07,720 --> 00:18:10,520 Speaker 2: We saw it from own depot, we saw it from Walmart. 358 00:18:10,600 --> 00:18:12,600 Speaker 2: What are we missing here? What will use of cash 359 00:18:12,640 --> 00:18:15,520 Speaker 2: forward look like? Well? 360 00:18:15,560 --> 00:18:17,280 Speaker 7: I think more of the same, And I think really 361 00:18:17,320 --> 00:18:20,800 Speaker 7: what the market's focusing on is prospects of growth, and 362 00:18:20,800 --> 00:18:23,360 Speaker 7: once you get away from the handful of very high 363 00:18:23,400 --> 00:18:26,720 Speaker 7: growth companies, you know, such as Nvidia, there aren't motor 364 00:18:26,760 --> 00:18:29,880 Speaker 7: sectors that have outstanding growth, and I think that's why 365 00:18:29,920 --> 00:18:32,680 Speaker 7: the market's focusing on with that's going to do, what 366 00:18:32,760 --> 00:18:34,680 Speaker 7: the economic growth is going to be, and why it's 367 00:18:34,760 --> 00:18:38,560 Speaker 7: reacted so sharply when companies have reported, you know, say 368 00:18:38,640 --> 00:18:42,080 Speaker 7: mild of trimming and their expeditations really wanged. 369 00:18:42,520 --> 00:18:44,639 Speaker 5: Hey, Marky, what are you taking out of this earning season? 370 00:18:44,640 --> 00:18:46,240 Speaker 5: We've had about eighty percent of the S and P 371 00:18:46,320 --> 00:18:49,200 Speaker 5: five hundred companies report already. Any themes coming out of 372 00:18:49,280 --> 00:18:52,919 Speaker 5: you that maybe affect your outlook, I think the main. 373 00:18:52,800 --> 00:18:56,360 Speaker 7: Thing is you can see a good expected results better 374 00:18:56,400 --> 00:18:59,240 Speaker 7: than expected, as we've had for the last few quarters. 375 00:18:59,400 --> 00:19:02,080 Speaker 7: But I think we're seeing is a sort of erosion 376 00:19:02,359 --> 00:19:06,879 Speaker 7: in the earnings, expectations and achievements, which to me telegraphs 377 00:19:07,320 --> 00:19:09,040 Speaker 7: the twenty four is going to be a year of 378 00:19:09,080 --> 00:19:11,919 Speaker 7: lower growth and after things are really spiked up with 379 00:19:12,040 --> 00:19:16,040 Speaker 7: so much spend pictures from COVID, from the infrastructure bill 380 00:19:16,080 --> 00:19:19,440 Speaker 7: and so forth, now we're going to see growth moderated, 381 00:19:19,440 --> 00:19:21,160 Speaker 7: and I think that's what the market's focused on. 382 00:19:21,520 --> 00:19:25,399 Speaker 5: And does that suggests kind of a moderating picture for 383 00:19:25,840 --> 00:19:28,119 Speaker 5: US equities here because we've there's a sense that the 384 00:19:28,200 --> 00:19:31,080 Speaker 5: FED will cut that maybe a little bit later than 385 00:19:31,119 --> 00:19:34,560 Speaker 5: we thought. So how does that affect your twenty four 386 00:19:34,680 --> 00:19:36,720 Speaker 5: view for the markets overall? 387 00:19:36,880 --> 00:19:39,119 Speaker 7: Well, I think as far as the Fed, there's uncertainty 388 00:19:39,119 --> 00:19:42,400 Speaker 7: because whereas people are thinking that cut in March, then 389 00:19:42,440 --> 00:19:45,040 Speaker 7: the feeling wast be delayed. And now some people are saying, oh, 390 00:19:45,080 --> 00:19:47,800 Speaker 7: well inflation is a little bit stubborn, they may raise 391 00:19:47,920 --> 00:19:50,879 Speaker 7: race instead. But it all comes back to if the 392 00:19:50,920 --> 00:19:54,440 Speaker 7: FED raises rates, economy will slow or the economy slow, 393 00:19:54,480 --> 00:19:56,600 Speaker 7: and then that's why the fence cutting. And that also 394 00:19:56,680 --> 00:19:59,320 Speaker 7: is a little bit of pressure on equity. So I 395 00:19:59,359 --> 00:20:01,439 Speaker 7: think the first half the years chopping around and. 396 00:20:01,520 --> 00:20:04,480 Speaker 5: Not really doing anywhere all right, given that backdrop, but 397 00:20:04,520 --> 00:20:07,680 Speaker 5: one of the sectors that maybe investors should be paying 398 00:20:07,680 --> 00:20:09,879 Speaker 5: attention to. Should we be focusing on the sectors that 399 00:20:09,920 --> 00:20:12,760 Speaker 5: pay good dividends? Thomas just highlighting some dividend growth stories 400 00:20:12,760 --> 00:20:15,240 Speaker 5: that we've seen recently. How do you think about sectors? 401 00:20:16,480 --> 00:20:17,840 Speaker 7: Well, I think if you a little bit of companies 402 00:20:17,920 --> 00:20:21,320 Speaker 7: have a balance of good growth and also pay a dividend, 403 00:20:21,320 --> 00:20:23,560 Speaker 7: because a dividend really is kind of proof that the 404 00:20:23,600 --> 00:20:27,040 Speaker 7: company has sustainable cash flow when they when they pay 405 00:20:27,080 --> 00:20:33,119 Speaker 7: a dividend. I think really sector's technology, industrials, some parts 406 00:20:33,119 --> 00:20:34,920 Speaker 7: of health care which look like they sort of hit 407 00:20:34,960 --> 00:20:38,280 Speaker 7: far and might be starting to grow over the next year, 408 00:20:38,680 --> 00:20:40,719 Speaker 7: but it's still a pretty farm few between. 409 00:20:41,280 --> 00:20:44,280 Speaker 2: We started the show this morning, Margaret with Paul's observation 410 00:20:44,359 --> 00:20:47,360 Speaker 2: at a seven percent mortgage rate, interest rates or back 411 00:20:47,480 --> 00:20:51,800 Speaker 2: up again is as well as you manage money, can 412 00:20:51,840 --> 00:20:54,280 Speaker 2: you get a total return that gets you back to 413 00:20:54,400 --> 00:20:58,600 Speaker 2: the long term log trend line of the Bloomberg Total 414 00:20:58,640 --> 00:21:01,960 Speaker 2: Return Index, the oldly Email index. Can we get back 415 00:21:02,000 --> 00:21:07,080 Speaker 2: to what we do with price appreciation in bonds? 416 00:21:07,560 --> 00:21:09,600 Speaker 7: Well, I think if you look at high yield right now, 417 00:21:09,640 --> 00:21:12,439 Speaker 7: we're looking at returns to say six and a half 418 00:21:12,560 --> 00:21:16,439 Speaker 7: to say seven and three quarters. Most bonds are training 419 00:21:16,480 --> 00:21:18,679 Speaker 7: a little bit of a discount, and so I think 420 00:21:18,760 --> 00:21:21,639 Speaker 7: that might be fairly competitive with equities. This year, I 421 00:21:21,720 --> 00:21:24,720 Speaker 7: think equities will be high single digit, low double digit, 422 00:21:25,240 --> 00:21:28,359 Speaker 7: and defaults are still rather low. I think they'll stay 423 00:21:28,400 --> 00:21:31,040 Speaker 7: low in the in the high yeld market. I thought 424 00:21:31,240 --> 00:21:33,160 Speaker 7: defaults will be in some of the more in Looqui 425 00:21:33,320 --> 00:21:34,600 Speaker 7: parts of loan parts. 426 00:21:34,280 --> 00:21:34,840 Speaker 3: In the market. 427 00:21:35,760 --> 00:21:38,600 Speaker 5: Well, I was surprised, Margie, looking back over the past, 428 00:21:38,720 --> 00:21:41,000 Speaker 5: you know, looking back at just last year, how well 429 00:21:41,119 --> 00:21:44,879 Speaker 5: high yield performed relative to other areas and fixed incoming. 430 00:21:44,920 --> 00:21:46,760 Speaker 5: You know, with all the talk we had about recession 431 00:21:46,840 --> 00:21:49,080 Speaker 5: just right around the corner, I'm surprised to see double 432 00:21:49,080 --> 00:21:50,640 Speaker 5: digit returns for high yield last year. 433 00:21:50,800 --> 00:21:53,840 Speaker 6: How do you think about highield credit this year? 434 00:21:55,240 --> 00:21:58,919 Speaker 7: Well, I think the high yield market is actually is 435 00:21:59,000 --> 00:22:02,040 Speaker 7: better shape than it's been in my career, is saying 436 00:22:02,080 --> 00:22:05,320 Speaker 7: a lot. The reason is companies took advantage of that 437 00:22:05,359 --> 00:22:08,159 Speaker 7: period of very low rates to restructure the balance sheets, 438 00:22:08,480 --> 00:22:11,720 Speaker 7: pay off their bank lines, so they're much less substive 439 00:22:12,040 --> 00:22:13,440 Speaker 7: like investment grade companies. 440 00:22:13,720 --> 00:22:13,880 Speaker 2: Too. 441 00:22:14,160 --> 00:22:16,760 Speaker 7: Changes in what the FED does, and I think that 442 00:22:16,800 --> 00:22:19,760 Speaker 7: we're not seeing any excesses of my old market after 443 00:22:19,880 --> 00:22:22,600 Speaker 7: coming that's swapped the market and we'll pull the whole 444 00:22:22,600 --> 00:22:26,119 Speaker 7: thing down. So it looks pretty balanced, Margie. 445 00:22:26,440 --> 00:22:29,120 Speaker 2: Edar Denny, you and I know Edjo Denny from ages ago. 446 00:22:29,160 --> 00:22:32,679 Speaker 2: It's c. J. Lawrence. Wow is he a bull? And 447 00:22:32,720 --> 00:22:36,439 Speaker 2: what's fascinating is he's a responsible bull. He's basically on 448 00:22:36,560 --> 00:22:39,360 Speaker 2: log trend line. I'm going to call it up eight nine, 449 00:22:39,560 --> 00:22:43,399 Speaker 2: ten percent per year. But he's extended out like we 450 00:22:43,560 --> 00:22:46,040 Speaker 2: used to in the old days. He's got the courage 451 00:22:46,080 --> 00:22:49,960 Speaker 2: to say, here's where we are thirty six months out? 452 00:22:50,160 --> 00:22:53,359 Speaker 2: Are you running money saying here's where we are thirty 453 00:22:53,400 --> 00:22:54,800 Speaker 2: six months out? 454 00:22:56,280 --> 00:22:58,359 Speaker 7: For me, that's a little long. I'm really looking at 455 00:22:58,440 --> 00:23:02,280 Speaker 7: say one year or maybe two. But really the point 456 00:23:02,400 --> 00:23:05,280 Speaker 7: I think that he's made voice for the song termed Roses. 457 00:23:05,640 --> 00:23:08,719 Speaker 7: The one looks pretty balanced. There's no sector point too. 458 00:23:08,840 --> 00:23:13,840 Speaker 7: Looks very vulnerable to the fence policy or just economic slowga. 459 00:23:14,040 --> 00:23:17,240 Speaker 7: So there's no reason couldn't continue to grow. 460 00:23:17,480 --> 00:23:31,600 Speaker 2: Markie, Thank you. Margie Pattel with Afspring, Boston. At least 461 00:23:31,600 --> 00:23:34,720 Speaker 2: I matella here with the newspapers and here and later 462 00:23:34,800 --> 00:23:39,800 Speaker 2: on you're warned the obligatory tall people article. Great, let's 463 00:23:39,800 --> 00:23:43,320 Speaker 2: start with something that doesn't about the bruises on my forehead. 464 00:23:43,880 --> 00:23:46,080 Speaker 8: I found that one just for you, picked out to me. 465 00:23:46,440 --> 00:23:47,640 Speaker 6: We'll get to it. We'll get to it. 466 00:23:48,200 --> 00:23:50,640 Speaker 8: Did you know that New York job seekers you can 467 00:23:50,680 --> 00:23:53,640 Speaker 8: now choose whether you want AI to look at your 468 00:23:53,680 --> 00:23:56,680 Speaker 8: resume or not. So this is a new law. It's 469 00:23:56,720 --> 00:23:59,320 Speaker 8: governing AI hiring in the city, the first of its 470 00:23:59,400 --> 00:24:02,480 Speaker 8: kind in the name. Okay, so online applications, you now 471 00:24:02,520 --> 00:24:05,600 Speaker 8: have to Companies have to disclose if they're using AI, 472 00:24:05,920 --> 00:24:08,239 Speaker 8: and they have to ask the applicants if they do 473 00:24:08,320 --> 00:24:11,679 Speaker 8: not want their resume scan buy a machine. Now here's 474 00:24:11,720 --> 00:24:15,480 Speaker 8: the problem, because algorithm algorithms they kick off qualified candidates 475 00:24:15,640 --> 00:24:19,119 Speaker 8: or embedded on intentional bias or in hiring. But a 476 00:24:19,160 --> 00:24:22,200 Speaker 8: lot of people are saying is skipping AI a good 477 00:24:22,240 --> 00:24:25,199 Speaker 8: idea because they say it can hurt your chance of 478 00:24:25,200 --> 00:24:29,040 Speaker 8: getting hired because companies, well, they aren't obligated to review 479 00:24:29,119 --> 00:24:32,200 Speaker 8: all the applications they get. So I don't know what 480 00:24:32,480 --> 00:24:33,040 Speaker 8: do you choose? 481 00:24:33,119 --> 00:24:36,440 Speaker 2: Is it like college applications, like a regular job application. 482 00:24:36,560 --> 00:24:40,399 Speaker 2: Now they're getting three hundred applicants for one spot because 483 00:24:40,400 --> 00:24:41,160 Speaker 2: of AI. 484 00:24:41,240 --> 00:24:43,119 Speaker 8: They get they get a lot of applicants. They're using 485 00:24:43,160 --> 00:24:45,760 Speaker 8: the AI to make it easier to go over the applications. 486 00:24:46,160 --> 00:24:48,560 Speaker 8: But people are saying, oh, well, AI is just kicking 487 00:24:48,560 --> 00:24:50,600 Speaker 8: them off. You know, they're not giving them a chance. 488 00:24:50,600 --> 00:24:53,640 Speaker 5: Consultants out there that'll tell you how to tellor your 489 00:24:53,920 --> 00:24:58,960 Speaker 5: resume your CV to screen well. They use these terms 490 00:24:58,960 --> 00:25:01,840 Speaker 5: these books. I'll screen well, same thing. It's similar to 491 00:25:01,840 --> 00:25:04,160 Speaker 5: what you can do for you know, colleges and things 492 00:25:04,200 --> 00:25:06,280 Speaker 5: like that. So for every point there's a counter plane. 493 00:25:06,400 --> 00:25:09,320 Speaker 2: Think when Matt Winkler looked at my resume fell off 494 00:25:09,320 --> 00:25:12,679 Speaker 2: his charity at the fluid is laughing so hard, and 495 00:25:12,800 --> 00:25:14,280 Speaker 2: Laurie said, enough of that. 496 00:25:14,640 --> 00:25:21,760 Speaker 8: Next the four day work week swit Yes, okay, this 497 00:25:21,840 --> 00:25:24,440 Speaker 8: is the financial Times they found this study, it's a 498 00:25:24,480 --> 00:25:26,440 Speaker 8: trial in the UK. Just want to put that out there. 499 00:25:26,520 --> 00:25:28,720 Speaker 8: Ran for the last six months of twenty twenty two. 500 00:25:29,240 --> 00:25:31,720 Speaker 8: So what they found for people who worked that four 501 00:25:31,840 --> 00:25:34,440 Speaker 8: day work week. Some were the fifth day on call, 502 00:25:34,680 --> 00:25:37,320 Speaker 8: but the four day work week. The positive thing improved 503 00:25:37,359 --> 00:25:42,320 Speaker 8: well being, improved productivity, boosted retention, improved recruitment. But the 504 00:25:42,359 --> 00:25:45,360 Speaker 8: negative side is that the work was more intense, so 505 00:25:45,400 --> 00:25:47,399 Speaker 8: you have less time for that coffee break. You know, 506 00:25:47,440 --> 00:25:50,919 Speaker 8: you couldn't chat as much amongst your fellow workers. Higher 507 00:25:50,920 --> 00:25:54,320 Speaker 8: costs for companies because businesses are increasing their head counts 508 00:25:54,320 --> 00:25:57,359 Speaker 8: so they can offset those shorter working hours. So the 509 00:25:57,560 --> 00:26:00,320 Speaker 8: main result is that most of the companies decide to 510 00:26:00,400 --> 00:26:02,600 Speaker 8: keep that flexible pattern, keep the four days. 511 00:26:02,640 --> 00:26:03,520 Speaker 6: Okay, good for them. 512 00:26:03,600 --> 00:26:05,600 Speaker 5: I mean that's not an option for some of us. 513 00:26:05,640 --> 00:26:07,920 Speaker 5: But correct for luck and joy it. 514 00:26:08,160 --> 00:26:10,000 Speaker 2: Okay, I'm ready. 515 00:26:10,600 --> 00:26:15,040 Speaker 8: He's not feeling it, all right. This one toime, This 516 00:26:15,080 --> 00:26:18,480 Speaker 8: one was for you. I found it. I didn't realize 517 00:26:18,520 --> 00:26:20,920 Speaker 8: the troubles that you go through when you step into 518 00:26:20,960 --> 00:26:21,399 Speaker 8: a car. 519 00:26:21,640 --> 00:26:22,760 Speaker 6: For those tall people. 520 00:26:23,640 --> 00:26:24,680 Speaker 8: It's a huge thing. 521 00:26:25,359 --> 00:26:25,800 Speaker 2: It is. 522 00:26:26,480 --> 00:26:30,240 Speaker 6: So it's why Tom gets first class, has. 523 00:26:30,119 --> 00:26:31,920 Speaker 8: To get picked up by the big car. I'm telling 524 00:26:32,000 --> 00:26:35,960 Speaker 8: you the best new cars and SUVs for tall people. 525 00:26:36,000 --> 00:26:38,399 Speaker 8: This is the study that came out from Dowd Jones. 526 00:26:38,600 --> 00:26:41,600 Speaker 8: Because you need the best headroom, leg room, windshield height 527 00:26:41,640 --> 00:26:44,719 Speaker 8: apparently is the thing too. You get bruised knees, head bumps. 528 00:26:44,760 --> 00:26:46,920 Speaker 8: I mean, it's it's a tough it's a tough situation. 529 00:26:47,359 --> 00:26:50,720 Speaker 8: So they pulled people that were six feet four inches tall. 530 00:26:50,760 --> 00:26:54,480 Speaker 8: They were all drivers. Review that short had Kelly Blue 531 00:26:54,560 --> 00:26:58,280 Speaker 8: Book the best all around room. There was a twenty 532 00:26:58,320 --> 00:27:02,240 Speaker 8: twenty four Chevy Tahoe the base price fifty eight thousand. Okay, 533 00:27:02,320 --> 00:27:05,360 Speaker 8: if you can't go that high, there's also the GMC 534 00:27:05,600 --> 00:27:09,280 Speaker 8: Sierra Crew Cab that's forty seven thousand, Or you can 535 00:27:09,359 --> 00:27:13,080 Speaker 8: go with the gmc canyon. The bass price thirty seven thousand, 536 00:27:13,280 --> 00:27:15,520 Speaker 8: so that's overall, but they break it down kills you. 537 00:27:16,400 --> 00:27:17,719 Speaker 2: Yeah, I don't know if you have this in your 538 00:27:17,760 --> 00:27:20,960 Speaker 2: new rig. He's got the fancy rig with Apple card play. Sure, 539 00:27:21,440 --> 00:27:23,880 Speaker 2: but what kills you is the sun roof takes out 540 00:27:23,920 --> 00:27:26,119 Speaker 2: two or three inches a headroom in the back seat. 541 00:27:26,440 --> 00:27:27,720 Speaker 6: Really, that's what they said. 542 00:27:27,960 --> 00:27:31,399 Speaker 2: I prefer the old suburbans to the new suburbans. I 543 00:27:31,440 --> 00:27:34,680 Speaker 2: was in a Lincoln car yesterday that actually was it's 544 00:27:34,680 --> 00:27:38,080 Speaker 2: like an SGUVK. Yeah, sure, it was actually comfortable. There's 545 00:27:38,119 --> 00:27:41,280 Speaker 2: a new Cadillact that's comfortable. I was in a Tesla 546 00:27:41,880 --> 00:27:44,840 Speaker 2: coming out of a Philippine restaurant in Queen's Great and 547 00:27:45,000 --> 00:27:47,600 Speaker 2: I'm screaming, I can't get in a Tesla and I 548 00:27:47,640 --> 00:27:50,439 Speaker 2: actually fit in the back seat of some new model. 549 00:27:50,480 --> 00:27:54,440 Speaker 2: Thank you Elon Musk. But this is like a huge deal. 550 00:27:55,160 --> 00:27:58,000 Speaker 2: And you know what it is, Lisa in the front seat, 551 00:27:58,200 --> 00:27:59,920 Speaker 2: if you have to lean back to get the head, 552 00:28:00,760 --> 00:28:02,719 Speaker 2: you can't reach the station. 553 00:28:03,160 --> 00:28:04,959 Speaker 8: Yeah, and the steerings will it becomes an issue too. 554 00:28:05,080 --> 00:28:09,280 Speaker 2: Yeah. Yeah, So it's like it's it's like it's like traumatic. 555 00:28:09,440 --> 00:28:14,400 Speaker 6: It's like, fortunately the Beentley's are very spacious. That's kind 556 00:28:14,400 --> 00:28:16,560 Speaker 6: of how we had to. We're searching, you know, shopping 557 00:28:16,560 --> 00:28:17,640 Speaker 6: for the saved in. 558 00:28:17,560 --> 00:28:22,080 Speaker 2: The Mercedes G Class. I can barely squeeze it. Thank you. 559 00:28:24,200 --> 00:28:27,440 Speaker 2: This is a Bloomberg Surveillance podcast, bringing you the best 560 00:28:27,440 --> 00:28:32,200 Speaker 2: in economics, finance, investment, and international relations. You can also 561 00:28:32,280 --> 00:28:36,320 Speaker 2: watch the show live on YouTube. Visit the Bloomberg Podcast 562 00:28:36,440 --> 00:28:40,480 Speaker 2: channel on YouTube to see the show weekday mornings from 563 00:28:40,520 --> 00:28:43,760 Speaker 2: seven to ten am Eastern from our global headquarters in 564 00:28:43,880 --> 00:28:47,560 Speaker 2: New York City. 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