1 00:00:00,120 --> 00:00:06,800 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio News. 2 00:00:11,640 --> 00:00:15,440 Speaker 2: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Jonathan Ferrow, along 3 00:00:15,480 --> 00:00:18,680 Speaker 2: with Lisa Bromwitz and Amrie Hordern. Join us each day 4 00:00:18,720 --> 00:00:22,280 Speaker 2: for insight from the best in markets, economics, and geopolitics 5 00:00:22,400 --> 00:00:24,920 Speaker 2: from our global headquarters in New York City. We are 6 00:00:24,920 --> 00:00:27,680 Speaker 2: live on Bloomberg Television weekday mornings from six to nine 7 00:00:27,720 --> 00:00:31,240 Speaker 2: am Eastern. Subscribe to the podcast on Apple, Spotify or 8 00:00:31,320 --> 00:00:33,960 Speaker 2: anywhere else you listen, and as always on the Bloomberg 9 00:00:34,040 --> 00:00:37,720 Speaker 2: Terminal and the Bloomberg Business app. Victoria Fernandez a crossmark 10 00:00:37,800 --> 00:00:39,960 Speaker 2: rights in this we continue to see volatility in the 11 00:00:40,000 --> 00:00:42,839 Speaker 2: markets as the uncertainty surrounding the rate path in the 12 00:00:42,960 --> 00:00:46,240 Speaker 2: US remains high, keeping us cautious as cracks in the 13 00:00:46,320 --> 00:00:50,120 Speaker 2: labor market begin to appear. Victoria's with us right now, Victoria, 14 00:00:50,159 --> 00:00:52,800 Speaker 2: let's start with the sustainability of this up trend other 15 00:00:52,920 --> 00:00:54,280 Speaker 2: question marks around that. 16 00:00:54,360 --> 00:00:55,440 Speaker 3: Now, given that we've seen. 17 00:00:55,280 --> 00:00:57,200 Speaker 2: A big move in the biggest name, the most important 18 00:00:57,240 --> 00:00:59,920 Speaker 2: name of this equity market three days, twenty percent game 19 00:01:00,200 --> 00:01:03,280 Speaker 2: from Vidia and this secretary market more broadly has done nothing. 20 00:01:04,760 --> 00:01:07,119 Speaker 4: No, I think you're absolutely right, Jonathan, and in Vidia 21 00:01:07,200 --> 00:01:09,360 Speaker 4: is kind of playing a game all by itself over 22 00:01:09,360 --> 00:01:12,160 Speaker 4: there in the games that we're seeing. But you look 23 00:01:12,160 --> 00:01:14,640 Speaker 4: at the rest of the market and there are some concerns. 24 00:01:14,720 --> 00:01:18,400 Speaker 4: Look at the diversification and the difference between the DOW 25 00:01:18,520 --> 00:01:19,600 Speaker 4: and the transports. 26 00:01:19,959 --> 00:01:21,080 Speaker 5: That's worrying to us. 27 00:01:21,120 --> 00:01:25,200 Speaker 4: Transports have been coming down pretty significantly. That's usually a 28 00:01:25,280 --> 00:01:27,440 Speaker 4: key indicator and a leading indicator of what we're going 29 00:01:27,480 --> 00:01:29,240 Speaker 4: to see in the markets. And so we're seeing that 30 00:01:29,319 --> 00:01:33,720 Speaker 4: divergence come there. We're seeing cyclicals no longer being leadership. 31 00:01:33,880 --> 00:01:36,680 Speaker 4: We're seeing other names start to come up now. Cyclicals 32 00:01:36,760 --> 00:01:40,600 Speaker 4: are becoming leadership overseas. So we're starting to see a 33 00:01:40,640 --> 00:01:43,440 Speaker 4: pickup over there, but pulling it down here. And look 34 00:01:43,480 --> 00:01:45,600 Speaker 4: a couple of weeks ago, Jonathan, when we were talking, 35 00:01:45,880 --> 00:01:48,720 Speaker 4: Yu said, Victoria, where's the weakness in the market, And 36 00:01:48,760 --> 00:01:52,080 Speaker 4: we've started to see that now since we spoke last time. 37 00:01:52,120 --> 00:01:55,600 Speaker 4: You're seeing weakness in the consumer. Look at retail sales. 38 00:01:55,880 --> 00:01:59,280 Speaker 4: We are actually flat with real retail sales over the 39 00:01:59,320 --> 00:02:04,440 Speaker 4: last four months. Regional pmis, regional manufacturing reports are weaker 40 00:02:04,600 --> 00:02:05,160 Speaker 4: as well. 41 00:02:05,440 --> 00:02:07,440 Speaker 5: There's different weaknesses that we're seeing. 42 00:02:07,520 --> 00:02:10,720 Speaker 4: Housing also, we've got a five percent gain in housing 43 00:02:10,960 --> 00:02:14,519 Speaker 4: prices right now, which again all of this feeding into 44 00:02:14,560 --> 00:02:17,359 Speaker 4: the idea that the FED is going to be very 45 00:02:17,440 --> 00:02:19,799 Speaker 4: uncertain in its path forward, and I think that's why 46 00:02:19,840 --> 00:02:21,600 Speaker 4: we'll have a vo little market going forward. 47 00:02:21,760 --> 00:02:22,120 Speaker 3: Lectoria. 48 00:02:22,240 --> 00:02:25,280 Speaker 2: Sometimes it's difficult to draw a distinction between a single 49 00:02:25,360 --> 00:02:28,520 Speaker 2: name issue and a broader sector problem. Great example of 50 00:02:28,560 --> 00:02:30,760 Speaker 2: that this morning is American Airlines. The name is down 51 00:02:30,800 --> 00:02:33,079 Speaker 2: by more than eight percent. If had to cut the outlook, 52 00:02:33,360 --> 00:02:35,800 Speaker 2: how would you distinguish between a single name issue in 53 00:02:35,840 --> 00:02:37,920 Speaker 2: that sector and a broad a sector problem. 54 00:02:39,040 --> 00:02:41,120 Speaker 4: Yeah, you have to really take a step back and 55 00:02:41,160 --> 00:02:43,320 Speaker 4: look at what's going on across the board. When we 56 00:02:43,360 --> 00:02:47,200 Speaker 4: look at airlines and you know, we're not strongholders of 57 00:02:47,280 --> 00:02:50,280 Speaker 4: airlines and our portfolios, but when you look at America 58 00:02:50,280 --> 00:02:53,360 Speaker 4: and they have had some idiosyncratic issues going on there, 59 00:02:53,520 --> 00:02:56,480 Speaker 4: we know that they have a key individual leaving. That 60 00:02:56,520 --> 00:03:00,639 Speaker 4: person was responsible for some of the revenue generationally around 61 00:03:00,680 --> 00:03:03,240 Speaker 4: the credit card issues that they were having, where they 62 00:03:03,240 --> 00:03:08,000 Speaker 4: have not succeeded like United has done, like Delta has done. 63 00:03:08,120 --> 00:03:11,440 Speaker 4: So there are some issues specifically for American, but you 64 00:03:11,600 --> 00:03:14,720 Speaker 4: also have to wonder if that travel sector that had 65 00:03:14,960 --> 00:03:18,920 Speaker 4: such a huge comeback after COVID if that's going to 66 00:03:18,960 --> 00:03:21,960 Speaker 4: start to pull back as we see the lower income 67 00:03:22,080 --> 00:03:25,440 Speaker 4: and the middle income consumers really struggle. I know in 68 00:03:26,080 --> 00:03:29,040 Speaker 4: the little montage that y'all played, there were different voices 69 00:03:29,440 --> 00:03:32,200 Speaker 4: in regards to whether consumers are doing well or not. 70 00:03:32,280 --> 00:03:35,839 Speaker 4: But we are seeing those lower and middle income consumers 71 00:03:36,040 --> 00:03:39,560 Speaker 4: struggle both in the balances they're carrying on their credit cards. 72 00:03:39,560 --> 00:03:42,920 Speaker 4: You've got almost sixty percent of those lower middle income 73 00:03:42,960 --> 00:03:47,200 Speaker 4: consumers carrying balances, and now they're turning to the buy now, 74 00:03:47,280 --> 00:03:49,240 Speaker 4: pay later, which doesn't even. 75 00:03:49,040 --> 00:03:50,240 Speaker 5: Show on their credit reports. 76 00:03:50,280 --> 00:03:53,000 Speaker 4: That's a whole other issue where almost ten percent of 77 00:03:53,000 --> 00:03:56,320 Speaker 4: those people are using it to buy necessities. So it 78 00:03:56,400 --> 00:03:58,520 Speaker 4: tells me we're going to be struggling with the consumer, 79 00:03:58,600 --> 00:04:01,080 Speaker 4: So that could flow through to the sector as a 80 00:04:01,080 --> 00:04:02,000 Speaker 4: whole going forward. 81 00:04:02,120 --> 00:04:04,160 Speaker 6: It raises a question, what does it mean to be cautious? 82 00:04:04,320 --> 00:04:06,640 Speaker 6: And we hear this a lot. You know, we're cautious 83 00:04:06,920 --> 00:04:09,240 Speaker 6: moving up in quality. How do you even determine what 84 00:04:09,280 --> 00:04:10,840 Speaker 6: that is? Is that just to continue to buy in 85 00:04:10,960 --> 00:04:13,080 Speaker 6: video because they run the world. Is it to go 86 00:04:13,120 --> 00:04:15,680 Speaker 6: into utilities that are increasingly thought of as an artificial 87 00:04:15,680 --> 00:04:17,839 Speaker 6: intelligence play and that have been bid up or is 88 00:04:17,839 --> 00:04:19,719 Speaker 6: it to go into the oil patch, which is often 89 00:04:19,760 --> 00:04:22,320 Speaker 6: thought about as actually leveraged to the consumer, but seems 90 00:04:22,360 --> 00:04:24,400 Speaker 6: to be dancing to its own music. How do you 91 00:04:24,480 --> 00:04:26,520 Speaker 6: view caution in a new world? 92 00:04:27,480 --> 00:04:28,440 Speaker 5: So, Lisa, I don't. 93 00:04:28,240 --> 00:04:31,120 Speaker 4: Think it's a specific name or sector when we say 94 00:04:31,120 --> 00:04:34,000 Speaker 4: we're being cautious when we're looking for high quality names 95 00:04:34,279 --> 00:04:39,120 Speaker 4: for us. That's in regards to the dependability of their earnings, 96 00:04:39,240 --> 00:04:41,960 Speaker 4: the quality of their earnings, the cash. 97 00:04:41,640 --> 00:04:43,480 Speaker 5: Flow on the balance sheets. 98 00:04:43,480 --> 00:04:45,680 Speaker 4: I mean you look at the energy story you were 99 00:04:45,720 --> 00:04:49,000 Speaker 4: just talking about with Conoco Phillips. I mean, they can 100 00:04:49,080 --> 00:04:52,800 Speaker 4: do these deals because their cash flow is so high 101 00:04:52,880 --> 00:04:56,560 Speaker 4: and so strong. It gives them the opportunity to make 102 00:04:56,600 --> 00:04:58,400 Speaker 4: these acquisitions like marathons. 103 00:04:58,480 --> 00:04:59,640 Speaker 5: So you want to have. 104 00:04:59,600 --> 00:05:03,480 Speaker 4: Companies that have that cash flow, those earnings. That doesn't 105 00:05:03,560 --> 00:05:05,560 Speaker 4: have to be in one sector or another. But I 106 00:05:05,600 --> 00:05:08,520 Speaker 4: do think it means you have to be stock picking. 107 00:05:08,560 --> 00:05:11,880 Speaker 4: You can't just pick a sector like you previously and say, oh, 108 00:05:11,920 --> 00:05:14,080 Speaker 4: tech is doing great, let's go in. I mean you 109 00:05:14,120 --> 00:05:17,680 Speaker 4: look at healthcare, for example, it's been down pretty significantly. 110 00:05:17,839 --> 00:05:20,359 Speaker 4: But you can find a specific name like Gilead that 111 00:05:20,440 --> 00:05:23,800 Speaker 4: we own, or you've got, you know, a stock trading 112 00:05:23,839 --> 00:05:26,640 Speaker 4: at less than ten times priced to cash flow, you've 113 00:05:26,640 --> 00:05:29,680 Speaker 4: got amost a five percent dividend, and you've got strong earnings. 114 00:05:29,920 --> 00:05:31,839 Speaker 4: Those are the types of names that we think fit 115 00:05:31,880 --> 00:05:34,000 Speaker 4: into that cautious scenario. 116 00:05:34,480 --> 00:05:36,840 Speaker 6: It seems like a lot of cylinders in the United 117 00:05:36,880 --> 00:05:40,040 Speaker 6: States are working for it in terms of the tech 118 00:05:40,120 --> 00:05:42,920 Speaker 6: plays in Nvidia among some of the others. We're talking 119 00:05:42,960 --> 00:05:45,719 Speaker 6: about oil, all of a sudden oil price is going up. 120 00:05:45,880 --> 00:05:48,920 Speaker 6: Is actually not necessarily so negative for the United States 121 00:05:48,920 --> 00:05:51,440 Speaker 6: that actually is becoming an increasing exporter and sort of 122 00:05:51,480 --> 00:05:54,200 Speaker 6: more self sufficient. You're looking at even some of the 123 00:05:54,279 --> 00:05:59,320 Speaker 6: drug innovations, albeit maybe the OBC drugs launching from certain 124 00:05:59,320 --> 00:06:01,960 Speaker 6: European con But I'm just curious, from your vantage point, 125 00:06:02,080 --> 00:06:04,400 Speaker 6: is a US still the place to be cautious in. 126 00:06:06,080 --> 00:06:09,440 Speaker 4: Yeah, Look, we're we want to see some exposure in 127 00:06:09,480 --> 00:06:13,320 Speaker 4: our client's portfolios to international because, like as I mentioned earlier, 128 00:06:13,320 --> 00:06:15,960 Speaker 4: we're seeing some of the cyclicality in the market, some 129 00:06:16,040 --> 00:06:19,360 Speaker 4: of those cyclical names, discretionary names doing. 130 00:06:19,240 --> 00:06:21,000 Speaker 5: Better outside the US. 131 00:06:21,040 --> 00:06:23,240 Speaker 4: So maybe you start to dip your toe in some 132 00:06:23,279 --> 00:06:26,200 Speaker 4: of those international markets that are doing well. But when 133 00:06:26,240 --> 00:06:28,640 Speaker 4: you look at the US, I do think you have 134 00:06:28,720 --> 00:06:30,760 Speaker 4: to take that cautious approach. 135 00:06:30,880 --> 00:06:32,840 Speaker 5: And it doesn't mean you're not invested in the market. 136 00:06:32,920 --> 00:06:34,080 Speaker 5: We are in the market. 137 00:06:33,880 --> 00:06:36,480 Speaker 4: One hundred percent, but you have to be careful as 138 00:06:36,520 --> 00:06:38,720 Speaker 4: to where you're putting your money to work. Does it 139 00:06:38,800 --> 00:06:42,200 Speaker 4: make sense to dump everything into those MAGS seven names. 140 00:06:42,000 --> 00:06:42,960 Speaker 5: Well, probably not. 141 00:06:43,040 --> 00:06:45,920 Speaker 4: We think we'll see some earning seterioration in those names 142 00:06:46,040 --> 00:06:49,000 Speaker 4: over the second half of this year, and other areas 143 00:06:49,480 --> 00:06:52,840 Speaker 4: like utilities, like healthcare will start to pick up. So 144 00:06:53,360 --> 00:06:55,960 Speaker 4: being cautious just means be careful where you're putting your 145 00:06:55,960 --> 00:06:58,560 Speaker 4: money to work. But we do think being in the 146 00:06:58,680 --> 00:07:01,719 Speaker 4: US makes a lot of sense. Dipping your toe in 147 00:07:01,920 --> 00:07:05,600 Speaker 4: other markets starts to make sense as we're seeing cyclicality 148 00:07:05,640 --> 00:07:06,000 Speaker 4: pick up. 149 00:07:06,520 --> 00:07:09,320 Speaker 7: When you look at the hedge fund exposure to big tech, 150 00:07:09,720 --> 00:07:12,280 Speaker 7: the Magnificent seven that you're saying, potentially you're seeing a 151 00:07:12,320 --> 00:07:13,400 Speaker 7: little bit of cracks. 152 00:07:13,440 --> 00:07:15,320 Speaker 8: Cracks in twenty point. 153 00:07:15,080 --> 00:07:17,440 Speaker 7: Seven percent of hedge funds total net exposure to US 154 00:07:17,520 --> 00:07:21,080 Speaker 7: single stocks that's what they account for now in these 155 00:07:21,120 --> 00:07:24,000 Speaker 7: Magnificent seven. Do you think that's way too much? 156 00:07:25,160 --> 00:07:26,920 Speaker 5: It seems really strong, right, Henry. 157 00:07:27,040 --> 00:07:29,000 Speaker 4: I mean you look top five names in the S 158 00:07:29,040 --> 00:07:32,280 Speaker 4: and P hundred are almost thirty percent, and you look 159 00:07:32,320 --> 00:07:35,680 Speaker 4: at Semis, that's eleven percent of the SMP. A few 160 00:07:35,760 --> 00:07:38,280 Speaker 4: years ago it was only two percent. So we've had 161 00:07:38,320 --> 00:07:41,800 Speaker 4: this tremendous amount of growth in those names. It is 162 00:07:41,840 --> 00:07:44,680 Speaker 4: one of the reasons why we remain cautious or do 163 00:07:44,720 --> 00:07:46,120 Speaker 4: we have exposure. 164 00:07:45,600 --> 00:07:46,240 Speaker 5: Of those names. 165 00:07:46,320 --> 00:07:49,600 Speaker 4: We do, but we're underweight versus the benchmark. So you 166 00:07:49,680 --> 00:07:51,680 Speaker 4: want to be able to take advantage of some of 167 00:07:51,720 --> 00:07:54,920 Speaker 4: the gains there, but also be a little underweight because 168 00:07:54,960 --> 00:07:56,840 Speaker 4: we do think we'll see a pullback and it gives 169 00:07:56,880 --> 00:07:59,520 Speaker 4: us a little dry powder when we trim those names 170 00:07:59,680 --> 00:08:01,920 Speaker 4: to go into other areas of the market. So it 171 00:08:01,960 --> 00:08:05,360 Speaker 4: does seem pretty heavily weighted. And as we all know, 172 00:08:05,440 --> 00:08:08,280 Speaker 4: there is a difference between their waiting in the S 173 00:08:08,360 --> 00:08:10,680 Speaker 4: and P on their market cap, and they're waiting in 174 00:08:10,840 --> 00:08:13,480 Speaker 4: earnings as well, So you have to look at that 175 00:08:13,560 --> 00:08:16,160 Speaker 4: difference and decide where you think it's the best. 176 00:08:15,920 --> 00:08:16,440 Speaker 5: Place to be. 177 00:08:16,800 --> 00:08:19,160 Speaker 2: Victoria busy morning, it's going to catch up passive White, 178 00:08:19,240 --> 00:08:19,840 Speaker 2: Victoria Finande. 179 00:08:19,880 --> 00:08:20,920 Speaker 3: Is there a cross smock? 180 00:08:31,040 --> 00:08:33,400 Speaker 2: No, that's a remack around the table with us alongside 181 00:08:33,440 --> 00:08:36,680 Speaker 2: New Veg's Tonny Rodriguez. Gens is going to see you Neil, 182 00:08:36,840 --> 00:08:41,560 Speaker 2: let's talk about why you're still constructive on this economy. Why, Well, I. 183 00:08:41,480 --> 00:08:43,600 Speaker 9: Definitely think the trade offs are getting a little bit 184 00:08:43,600 --> 00:08:47,400 Speaker 9: trickier for the FED. So I tend to think that, 185 00:08:48,120 --> 00:08:49,480 Speaker 9: you know, we're still at the end of the year 186 00:08:49,520 --> 00:08:51,680 Speaker 9: going to be talking about an economy that's growing, and 187 00:08:51,720 --> 00:08:53,679 Speaker 9: how much has the FED been cutting? I still think 188 00:08:53,720 --> 00:08:56,760 Speaker 9: that's really the name of the game. But you know, 189 00:08:56,800 --> 00:08:59,920 Speaker 9: I do think that to me, it's not as obvi 190 00:09:00,240 --> 00:09:02,439 Speaker 9: is that, you know. I mean, the FED goes around 191 00:09:02,440 --> 00:09:04,720 Speaker 9: saying we have time, I don't have to worry about things. 192 00:09:04,760 --> 00:09:06,240 Speaker 9: I mean, you never have as much time as you 193 00:09:06,280 --> 00:09:09,720 Speaker 9: think in hindsight, And we know that the risks with 194 00:09:09,800 --> 00:09:12,880 Speaker 9: unemployment are always that their nonlinear in nature, right, So 195 00:09:12,880 --> 00:09:15,040 Speaker 9: it's never just that unemployment goes up a little bit, 196 00:09:15,080 --> 00:09:16,960 Speaker 9: It goes up a lot of bit, right, And so 197 00:09:17,080 --> 00:09:20,079 Speaker 9: I think, you know, when I look at the when 198 00:09:20,120 --> 00:09:21,520 Speaker 9: I look at what the FED is doing and the 199 00:09:21,600 --> 00:09:24,080 Speaker 9: data as it's unfolding, I mean, all it really feels 200 00:09:24,120 --> 00:09:25,880 Speaker 9: like they're doing right now is just taking the last 201 00:09:25,920 --> 00:09:28,320 Speaker 9: few months of data and just extrapolating that forward. 202 00:09:28,360 --> 00:09:30,240 Speaker 8: And things can change. 203 00:09:30,600 --> 00:09:34,200 Speaker 9: And and I think that's especially true of the inflation data, 204 00:09:34,400 --> 00:09:36,880 Speaker 9: and you know, I don't think you can really make 205 00:09:36,920 --> 00:09:39,679 Speaker 9: a fundamental story for why inflation perked up. I mean, 206 00:09:39,720 --> 00:09:42,080 Speaker 9: you can point to specific things here and there, right 207 00:09:42,160 --> 00:09:47,920 Speaker 9: auto insurance, people talk about healthcare services, but generally speaking, 208 00:09:48,000 --> 00:09:50,319 Speaker 9: it really boils down, in my mind, to what's going 209 00:09:50,400 --> 00:09:53,520 Speaker 9: on with the labor markets. And the labor markets are cooling. 210 00:09:53,760 --> 00:09:56,319 Speaker 9: I mean, I don't think that that's even a debatable point. 211 00:09:57,240 --> 00:10:00,000 Speaker 9: If you look at average hourly earnings for all employees 212 00:10:00,360 --> 00:10:03,160 Speaker 9: over the last three months, it's up less than three 213 00:10:03,200 --> 00:10:07,000 Speaker 9: percent at an annual rate. So if you believe that 214 00:10:07,040 --> 00:10:11,920 Speaker 9: inflation's going to remain sticky, John, you need to start 215 00:10:11,960 --> 00:10:14,920 Speaker 9: worrying then about a decline in real wages. And if 216 00:10:14,960 --> 00:10:19,240 Speaker 9: real wages are contracting, then consumer spending will slow, and 217 00:10:19,280 --> 00:10:22,360 Speaker 9: if consumer splending will slow, corporate earnings will slow. So 218 00:10:24,120 --> 00:10:26,200 Speaker 9: you know, I don't think that's strong. I mean, in 219 00:10:26,240 --> 00:10:29,160 Speaker 9: the first quarter, you had this strong inflation data, and 220 00:10:29,440 --> 00:10:32,040 Speaker 9: I think a lot of investors sort of said thought, Okay, 221 00:10:32,280 --> 00:10:36,680 Speaker 9: this is reinforcing this inflationary boom narrative. But the labor markets, frankly, 222 00:10:36,720 --> 00:10:38,240 Speaker 9: just are not in the same place as they were 223 00:10:38,280 --> 00:10:41,160 Speaker 9: a year ago, and you need labor costs are basically 224 00:10:41,960 --> 00:10:45,559 Speaker 9: one percent, so I just wonder where the inflation comes from. 225 00:10:45,600 --> 00:10:47,520 Speaker 9: So my sense is that if you want to be 226 00:10:47,559 --> 00:10:50,640 Speaker 9: optimistic on the economy, you almost have to think that 227 00:10:50,679 --> 00:10:53,880 Speaker 9: inflation slows down, because if it doesn't, then you need 228 00:10:53,920 --> 00:10:55,800 Speaker 9: to start raising your recession probabilities. 229 00:10:55,920 --> 00:10:58,000 Speaker 2: Going into the pandemic, the Federal Reserve used to say 230 00:10:58,000 --> 00:11:00,079 Speaker 2: things like we need to extend the signe cop and 231 00:11:00,160 --> 00:11:01,680 Speaker 2: some of the language I remember phrase I think of 232 00:11:01,679 --> 00:11:03,600 Speaker 2: his fiz check crowd at the time would say things 233 00:11:03,679 --> 00:11:06,160 Speaker 2: like an ounce of protection was worth a pound of cure. 234 00:11:06,559 --> 00:11:08,959 Speaker 2: Are you saying they should move preemptively and begin to 235 00:11:08,960 --> 00:11:11,560 Speaker 2: reduce interest rates just on the margin surgically. 236 00:11:11,679 --> 00:11:13,720 Speaker 9: Well, I think, I mean, I think that's all we 237 00:11:13,760 --> 00:11:15,920 Speaker 9: should really expect. I mean, I've been saying that they 238 00:11:15,920 --> 00:11:19,720 Speaker 9: should be recalibrating policy, but I think that they should 239 00:11:19,720 --> 00:11:22,240 Speaker 9: be focusing on what's happening with the labor markets. And 240 00:11:22,360 --> 00:11:25,840 Speaker 9: the labor markets are clearly moderating, and so you're basically saying, 241 00:11:27,080 --> 00:11:30,160 Speaker 9: you know, we're waiting on what like healthcare services, inflation 242 00:11:30,280 --> 00:11:33,120 Speaker 9: to moderate, and some of these idiosyncratic factors. I mean, again, 243 00:11:33,240 --> 00:11:35,600 Speaker 9: you know, to me, it's you know, and in many cases, 244 00:11:35,600 --> 00:11:39,440 Speaker 9: economics is basically like identity. Like an identity, things on 245 00:11:39,440 --> 00:11:41,520 Speaker 9: one side of the equation have to equal things on 246 00:11:41,559 --> 00:11:43,920 Speaker 9: the other side of the equation, and certain things just 247 00:11:43,960 --> 00:11:47,319 Speaker 9: need to be true. And so in my from my perspective, 248 00:11:47,320 --> 00:11:51,000 Speaker 9: I mean compensation growth should equal inflation plus productivity. And 249 00:11:51,040 --> 00:11:52,480 Speaker 9: what do we know about those things? We know that 250 00:11:52,600 --> 00:11:56,000 Speaker 9: compensation growth has been slowing, right, no matter what you 251 00:11:56,040 --> 00:11:58,880 Speaker 9: look at and all you know, job labor tournovers down, 252 00:11:59,120 --> 00:12:01,640 Speaker 9: the number of people that don't have haven't seen a 253 00:12:01,679 --> 00:12:04,040 Speaker 9: movement in their wages over the last year, that numbers up. 254 00:12:04,640 --> 00:12:07,520 Speaker 9: If you look at quits hires, those have all moderated. 255 00:12:07,559 --> 00:12:10,360 Speaker 9: If you look at posted wage growth, that's moderating. So 256 00:12:10,440 --> 00:12:13,520 Speaker 9: we have a pretty good indication that wage growth is slowing. 257 00:12:14,520 --> 00:12:17,160 Speaker 9: If you look at across a whole number of industries, 258 00:12:17,200 --> 00:12:22,080 Speaker 9: whether that's professional and business services, retail trade, leisure and hospitality, 259 00:12:22,360 --> 00:12:25,080 Speaker 9: wage growth in those industries, particularly leisure and hospitality and 260 00:12:25,080 --> 00:12:27,600 Speaker 9: retail trade, because you know, those are the folks with 261 00:12:27,600 --> 00:12:30,959 Speaker 9: the higher propensities to spend, those industries are seeing wage 262 00:12:30,960 --> 00:12:32,560 Speaker 9: growth at the lowest, at the low end of their 263 00:12:32,640 --> 00:12:36,240 Speaker 9: range over the last year. So if compensation growth is 264 00:12:36,280 --> 00:12:39,199 Speaker 9: moderating and productivity is normalized. 265 00:12:40,840 --> 00:12:42,000 Speaker 8: You don't really get much. 266 00:12:41,800 --> 00:12:43,520 Speaker 9: Of it, don't I don't think you can really make 267 00:12:43,559 --> 00:12:45,679 Speaker 9: a very strong case for inflation other than. 268 00:12:47,320 --> 00:12:48,520 Speaker 8: You know, it's been strong. 269 00:12:48,800 --> 00:12:50,760 Speaker 6: But you know, Tony, I'd love you to weigh in 270 00:12:50,800 --> 00:12:54,240 Speaker 6: on this. You believe that the disinflation story is true 271 00:12:54,360 --> 00:12:57,600 Speaker 6: and you expect it to continue. But we're talking here 272 00:12:57,640 --> 00:12:59,679 Speaker 6: a nuance because at a certain point, if it stays 273 00:12:59,679 --> 00:13:01,640 Speaker 6: sticky at a certain rate, it can still lead to 274 00:13:01,679 --> 00:13:03,400 Speaker 6: some real problems. So can you give us a sense 275 00:13:03,400 --> 00:13:05,640 Speaker 6: of what the trajectory is and kind of where the 276 00:13:05,640 --> 00:13:08,120 Speaker 6: margin of error is for the FED at this point? 277 00:13:08,480 --> 00:13:10,520 Speaker 10: Sure? So, I mean we can kind of agree with 278 00:13:10,559 --> 00:13:13,120 Speaker 10: the idea that, you know, the wage the labor market 279 00:13:13,160 --> 00:13:15,120 Speaker 10: is softening, and we think that's going to kind of 280 00:13:15,120 --> 00:13:17,559 Speaker 10: flow through the wage pressures declining as we go through 281 00:13:17,559 --> 00:13:19,840 Speaker 10: the year. Our view is that while inflation is going 282 00:13:19,880 --> 00:13:22,600 Speaker 10: to continue to decline, it's going to do it really slowly. 283 00:13:22,960 --> 00:13:24,920 Speaker 10: So it really was rapid in the second half of 284 00:13:25,000 --> 00:13:27,319 Speaker 10: last year. We saw this spike kind of early in 285 00:13:27,360 --> 00:13:29,320 Speaker 10: the year that was really a surprise to us. I 286 00:13:29,320 --> 00:13:31,760 Speaker 10: think in the man the market that inflation was so 287 00:13:31,880 --> 00:13:34,360 Speaker 10: hot Our view is that we're sitting at maybe a 288 00:13:34,440 --> 00:13:37,199 Speaker 10: two seven kind of PC level by the end of 289 00:13:37,240 --> 00:13:39,680 Speaker 10: the year, so kind of flat to where we are now, 290 00:13:39,920 --> 00:13:43,240 Speaker 10: maybe down a tenth. Next year we again move very 291 00:13:43,280 --> 00:13:46,559 Speaker 10: slowly towards more like a two three, and getting back 292 00:13:46,600 --> 00:13:49,080 Speaker 10: to the target is more of a twenty twenty sixth event. 293 00:13:49,600 --> 00:13:52,200 Speaker 10: So in that environment allows the FED to us be 294 00:13:52,360 --> 00:13:56,600 Speaker 10: basically higher for longer because the economy remains pretty resilient 295 00:13:56,960 --> 00:13:59,480 Speaker 10: while we're seeing that softening in the labor market. It's 296 00:13:59,520 --> 00:14:02,680 Speaker 10: not under sub one hundred thousand jobs. It's more than 297 00:14:02,679 --> 00:14:05,160 Speaker 10: one hundred hundred and fifty range rather than what had 298 00:14:05,160 --> 00:14:07,839 Speaker 10: been a two hundred and fifty range, So still reasonably 299 00:14:07,880 --> 00:14:09,400 Speaker 10: healthy macro environment. 300 00:14:09,720 --> 00:14:11,800 Speaker 6: What does hire for longer mean at a time where 301 00:14:11,800 --> 00:14:14,680 Speaker 6: you've got tom Csaurus to Adam Posen saying basically, a 302 00:14:14,679 --> 00:14:17,480 Speaker 6: federate cut here would be a policy error because of 303 00:14:17,520 --> 00:14:19,720 Speaker 6: some of the inflation that could fuel later on. 304 00:14:20,240 --> 00:14:22,400 Speaker 10: Yeah, so RBS right now we have a real rate 305 00:14:22,440 --> 00:14:25,280 Speaker 10: that's well over two percent. We think that one cut, 306 00:14:25,640 --> 00:14:27,600 Speaker 10: maybe two by the end of the year is the 307 00:14:27,640 --> 00:14:30,960 Speaker 10: most that we'll see. That kind of recalibration to us 308 00:14:31,200 --> 00:14:34,040 Speaker 10: is not going to drive a spike up again in 309 00:14:34,080 --> 00:14:36,920 Speaker 10: Inflation's just going to keep the real rate at a 310 00:14:37,040 --> 00:14:40,240 Speaker 10: level that is not overly restrictive and therefore putting the 311 00:14:40,320 --> 00:14:43,760 Speaker 10: labor market a greater risk than is necessary given the 312 00:14:43,800 --> 00:14:45,080 Speaker 10: current overall environment. 313 00:14:45,240 --> 00:14:47,400 Speaker 2: Can we talk about what everyone's been talking about over 314 00:14:47,440 --> 00:14:50,280 Speaker 2: the last several months, which is the supply side story, Neil, 315 00:14:50,280 --> 00:14:52,560 Speaker 2: I know you've got thoughts on this. Allen Center and 316 00:14:52,560 --> 00:14:54,560 Speaker 2: Morgan Stanley has made the point that this economy can 317 00:14:54,560 --> 00:14:57,520 Speaker 2: get bigger without getting tighter. And what everyone's pointing to 318 00:14:57,760 --> 00:15:00,280 Speaker 2: is the amount of immigration we've seen in this country. We' 319 00:15:00,280 --> 00:15:02,080 Speaker 2: putting too much weight on the explanation as to what 320 00:15:02,160 --> 00:15:03,800 Speaker 2: is developing in the labor market. 321 00:15:04,400 --> 00:15:06,320 Speaker 9: I mean, this is a very hot button issue, John, 322 00:15:06,360 --> 00:15:08,800 Speaker 9: but I do I think that. I mean, America is 323 00:15:08,840 --> 00:15:12,480 Speaker 9: not the only place in the world that's seen rising 324 00:15:12,560 --> 00:15:15,560 Speaker 9: population growth or I mean, just look to our friends 325 00:15:15,600 --> 00:15:18,920 Speaker 9: in the north in Canada. They've had very rapid immigration 326 00:15:19,000 --> 00:15:21,400 Speaker 9: growth has to stopped their economy. 327 00:15:20,880 --> 00:15:22,400 Speaker 8: From not doing well. 328 00:15:22,400 --> 00:15:24,360 Speaker 9: I mean, if you look at per capita GDP and 329 00:15:24,400 --> 00:15:27,760 Speaker 9: candidates in the toilet, so just because you have a 330 00:15:27,760 --> 00:15:30,760 Speaker 9: lot of immigration doesn't necessarily mean that your economy is strong. 331 00:15:31,120 --> 00:15:33,720 Speaker 9: So I really think the immigration angle is something that 332 00:15:33,760 --> 00:15:35,640 Speaker 9: people are looking at as a way to work back. 333 00:15:36,320 --> 00:15:39,680 Speaker 9: Lots of places across G ten have seen very rapid 334 00:15:39,680 --> 00:15:43,520 Speaker 9: growth in immigration. What's not clear across all those countries 335 00:15:43,600 --> 00:15:46,600 Speaker 9: is strong growth. The US in that respect is the 336 00:15:46,600 --> 00:15:49,760 Speaker 9: one that stands out, which would suggest that productivity in 337 00:15:49,800 --> 00:15:53,560 Speaker 9: the US is the primary reason of why we've seen 338 00:15:53,560 --> 00:15:54,440 Speaker 9: this outperformance. 339 00:15:54,560 --> 00:15:55,040 Speaker 3: I just asked me. 340 00:15:55,080 --> 00:15:56,800 Speaker 6: Although a lot of people are saying it's not just 341 00:15:57,040 --> 00:15:59,960 Speaker 6: strong growth, it's that the growth came without the inflation 342 00:16:00,440 --> 00:16:02,680 Speaker 6: as a result of wages climbing as much as people 343 00:16:02,720 --> 00:16:05,480 Speaker 6: previously expected. That was the component of immigration that people 344 00:16:05,520 --> 00:16:06,200 Speaker 6: were talking about. 345 00:16:06,280 --> 00:16:10,240 Speaker 8: Do you buy that. I don't follow that basically. 346 00:16:09,960 --> 00:16:12,720 Speaker 6: Because immigrants were coming to this country willing to work 347 00:16:13,160 --> 00:16:16,360 Speaker 6: even for wages that were lower, or potentially that it 348 00:16:16,400 --> 00:16:18,960 Speaker 6: actually kept down some of the wage inflation that otherwise 349 00:16:19,000 --> 00:16:22,120 Speaker 6: would have been given the natural tightness in the labor market. 350 00:16:22,200 --> 00:16:23,920 Speaker 9: I'm sure you could find some I mean, you have 351 00:16:23,960 --> 00:16:26,200 Speaker 9: seen some slow in wages, so maybe you know you 352 00:16:26,240 --> 00:16:28,640 Speaker 9: can make more of a labor market case. But generally speaking, 353 00:16:28,680 --> 00:16:30,720 Speaker 9: I mean, I think there are lots of other reasons 354 00:16:30,760 --> 00:16:33,680 Speaker 9: beyond immigration that you know. I mean, for example, we're 355 00:16:33,760 --> 00:16:35,480 Speaker 9: less exposed to what's going on in. 356 00:16:35,560 --> 00:16:39,040 Speaker 8: Ukraine and Russia than Europe. 357 00:16:39,120 --> 00:16:44,400 Speaker 9: Obviously, monetary policy transmits itself differently in the US because 358 00:16:44,440 --> 00:16:47,280 Speaker 9: we have so many people on thirty year fixed rate 359 00:16:47,320 --> 00:16:50,200 Speaker 9: mortgage debt. That's not the case in Europe. We had 360 00:16:50,240 --> 00:16:54,960 Speaker 9: a very very robust fiscal response relative to Europe. And 361 00:16:55,120 --> 00:16:58,760 Speaker 9: you know, I mean generally speaking, the US does set 362 00:16:59,320 --> 00:17:01,960 Speaker 9: in my mind, productivity frontier for the world, so we're 363 00:17:02,000 --> 00:17:03,560 Speaker 9: sort of on the leading edge of that. So there 364 00:17:03,560 --> 00:17:06,520 Speaker 9: are lots of reasons for why the. 365 00:17:06,520 --> 00:17:07,640 Speaker 8: US is outperformed. 366 00:17:07,960 --> 00:17:10,760 Speaker 9: I think immigration, frankly, ranks very low on the list, 367 00:17:13,240 --> 00:17:16,160 Speaker 9: and you know, I think that's shown in the fact 368 00:17:16,160 --> 00:17:18,760 Speaker 9: that lots of countries across G ten I have seen 369 00:17:18,920 --> 00:17:22,520 Speaker 9: very strong growth in immigration. Not every country has been 370 00:17:22,640 --> 00:17:25,560 Speaker 9: enjoying the kind of economic performance the US has enjoyed. 371 00:17:25,560 --> 00:17:28,120 Speaker 10: The tunny Yeah, So our view is that the immigration 372 00:17:28,280 --> 00:17:30,600 Speaker 10: was just very well timed. It's not a long run 373 00:17:30,680 --> 00:17:33,199 Speaker 10: fundamental force. It's going to be a driver of growth 374 00:17:33,200 --> 00:17:35,520 Speaker 10: and higher potential growth for the US or the next 375 00:17:35,520 --> 00:17:39,600 Speaker 10: five years. Given immigration policy in this country is challenging, 376 00:17:39,920 --> 00:17:43,440 Speaker 10: but the timing of it, which was above expectations, really 377 00:17:43,520 --> 00:17:46,960 Speaker 10: helped ye, some of those pressures on wages, but going forward, 378 00:17:46,960 --> 00:17:49,359 Speaker 10: it's going to have to be much more about labor 379 00:17:49,359 --> 00:17:55,080 Speaker 10: force participation. Helped grow potential growth for productivity remaining very high, 380 00:17:55,359 --> 00:17:57,439 Speaker 10: which you know is possible with AI, but it's going 381 00:17:57,520 --> 00:18:01,359 Speaker 10: to be more of a traditional either product or labor 382 00:18:01,359 --> 00:18:05,800 Speaker 10: force participation that's second there's probably unlikely, so it's gonna 383 00:18:05,800 --> 00:18:07,360 Speaker 10: have to rely on productivity in our mind. 384 00:18:07,400 --> 00:18:08,200 Speaker 8: Well, I mean that's. 385 00:18:08,040 --> 00:18:09,640 Speaker 9: That's I mean, that's a great point that it's temp 386 00:18:09,800 --> 00:18:11,280 Speaker 9: It could be temporary, right, I mean a lot of 387 00:18:11,280 --> 00:18:14,080 Speaker 9: the immigration that we're seeing could just be pent up 388 00:18:14,119 --> 00:18:16,840 Speaker 9: demand from the pandemic. I mean, the visa approvals were 389 00:18:16,880 --> 00:18:20,199 Speaker 9: basically shut down and then we reopened them, so you know, 390 00:18:20,240 --> 00:18:22,600 Speaker 9: and now you have a lot of you know, foreign 391 00:18:22,680 --> 00:18:27,280 Speaker 9: born workers coming into the workforce. But that shouldn't sustain 392 00:18:27,359 --> 00:18:29,480 Speaker 9: I mean, I do think it's interesting that you've you've 393 00:18:29,560 --> 00:18:32,000 Speaker 9: you've started to see the foreign born workforce moderate a 394 00:18:32,000 --> 00:18:35,920 Speaker 9: bit at a time when everyone's talking about it kind 395 00:18:35,920 --> 00:18:38,120 Speaker 9: of kind of makes me think about what it means 396 00:18:38,160 --> 00:18:41,680 Speaker 9: that everyone's talking about not being long duration and thinking 397 00:18:41,760 --> 00:18:43,359 Speaker 9: rates are going to be five percent, Like what that 398 00:18:43,400 --> 00:18:44,320 Speaker 9: means for the next. 399 00:18:44,119 --> 00:18:46,280 Speaker 6: Move But that's that's I think exactly where I was 400 00:18:46,320 --> 00:18:48,879 Speaker 6: going to go tony, this idea that people saying that 401 00:18:48,920 --> 00:18:51,520 Speaker 6: the reverse could happen, where suddenly that an immigration policy 402 00:18:51,560 --> 00:18:54,080 Speaker 6: that would restrict some of the foreign workers and that 403 00:18:54,119 --> 00:18:56,760 Speaker 6: would lead to a surge and inflation. Do you not 404 00:18:56,840 --> 00:18:59,320 Speaker 6: buy that? But there could potentially be some sort of 405 00:18:59,440 --> 00:19:03,600 Speaker 6: post election increase in inflation expectations that could really challenge 406 00:19:03,640 --> 00:19:04,359 Speaker 6: the bond market. 407 00:19:04,880 --> 00:19:08,119 Speaker 10: I think it'd probably be more likely to come election related. 408 00:19:08,119 --> 00:19:10,440 Speaker 10: It'd be more likely to come from maybe potential texts 409 00:19:10,560 --> 00:19:13,760 Speaker 10: changes that occurred. What happens with those texts changes are 410 00:19:13,760 --> 00:19:16,560 Speaker 10: going to either roll off or not. Then necessarily integration policy. 411 00:19:16,560 --> 00:19:18,840 Speaker 10: Immigration policy might take I think a little longer to 412 00:19:18,960 --> 00:19:22,800 Speaker 10: work through. And we already have a labor market that's softening. 413 00:19:22,880 --> 00:19:25,199 Speaker 10: As Neil pointed out, there's lots of metrics that we 414 00:19:25,240 --> 00:19:27,239 Speaker 10: look at that say it's softening. So I don't think 415 00:19:27,280 --> 00:19:29,840 Speaker 10: it'll be from the labor side that we might get 416 00:19:29,840 --> 00:19:33,840 Speaker 10: that inflationary impulse that's election related, which. 417 00:19:33,680 --> 00:19:35,680 Speaker 2: You expout to say this in Pyros next Friday that 418 00:19:35,800 --> 00:19:36,960 Speaker 2: deceleration continued. 419 00:19:37,400 --> 00:19:39,680 Speaker 10: Yeah, we would say that we're probably likely to see 420 00:19:39,680 --> 00:19:42,360 Speaker 10: a two hundred or below number rather than moved back 421 00:19:42,400 --> 00:19:45,200 Speaker 10: to two fifty. So it's not a week labor market, 422 00:19:45,359 --> 00:19:48,280 Speaker 10: it's just one that's not overheated like we were. 423 00:19:48,200 --> 00:19:49,840 Speaker 9: Fun with new Yeah, I would just say, I mean, 424 00:19:49,920 --> 00:19:52,600 Speaker 9: you know, Lisa, you mentioned immigrations taking the pressure off 425 00:19:52,600 --> 00:19:55,880 Speaker 9: of wages. I mean, let's be clear, excess labor demand 426 00:19:56,119 --> 00:19:59,159 Speaker 9: has been slowing very rapidly, as proxied by job opening. 427 00:19:59,200 --> 00:20:00,919 Speaker 9: So it's not just oh we have all this supply. 428 00:20:01,000 --> 00:20:05,120 Speaker 9: I mean demand has come down. You know, businesses are 429 00:20:05,160 --> 00:20:07,120 Speaker 9: trying to get the most out of their workers. They're 430 00:20:07,119 --> 00:20:09,359 Speaker 9: not really trying to go out and hire more workers. 431 00:20:09,400 --> 00:20:12,280 Speaker 9: And I think that's very important because that's what's keeping 432 00:20:12,320 --> 00:20:15,000 Speaker 9: in a labor costs in check, which we'll, in turn, 433 00:20:15,040 --> 00:20:18,040 Speaker 9: in my opinion, bring inflation down. 434 00:20:18,080 --> 00:20:20,720 Speaker 2: Interesting payrolls two fridays away. The estimate in our survey 435 00:20:20,720 --> 00:20:22,919 Speaker 2: at the moment of sneak pee for you one hundred 436 00:20:22,960 --> 00:20:23,919 Speaker 2: and eighty k. 437 00:20:24,040 --> 00:20:26,280 Speaker 3: The previous number one seventy five. No data. 438 00:20:26,320 --> 00:20:28,720 Speaker 2: I've ren mac Tany Rodriguez, Nuvin gents, thank you, and 439 00:20:28,720 --> 00:20:30,119 Speaker 2: Michael McKay's wall Thank you, sir. 440 00:20:39,880 --> 00:20:40,040 Speaker 8: One. 441 00:20:40,080 --> 00:20:42,280 Speaker 2: I guess now really pleased to say it's Tom Steyer, 442 00:20:42,400 --> 00:20:45,720 Speaker 2: co founder of Galvanized Climate Solutions and author of the 443 00:20:45,760 --> 00:20:48,399 Speaker 2: new book Cheaper, Faster, Better, How. 444 00:20:48,280 --> 00:20:50,480 Speaker 3: Will Win the Climate War? And I've got that book 445 00:20:50,480 --> 00:20:51,000 Speaker 3: alongside me. 446 00:20:51,040 --> 00:20:51,200 Speaker 8: Tom. 447 00:20:51,200 --> 00:20:52,160 Speaker 3: Good morning to you, John. 448 00:20:52,200 --> 00:20:52,600 Speaker 11: How are you? 449 00:20:52,760 --> 00:20:53,200 Speaker 3: I'm good. 450 00:20:53,240 --> 00:20:56,320 Speaker 2: This is a hopeful book. This is constructive. Can you 451 00:20:56,359 --> 00:20:58,600 Speaker 2: walk us through the essence of what I'm holding this morning? 452 00:20:59,080 --> 00:20:59,359 Speaker 11: Sure? 453 00:21:00,160 --> 00:21:03,679 Speaker 1: I mean, basically, what I'm saying is that the news 454 00:21:03,920 --> 00:21:07,320 Speaker 1: from the natural world about climate change is worse than 455 00:21:07,400 --> 00:21:10,440 Speaker 1: most people know. And we read that virtually every day. 456 00:21:10,440 --> 00:21:12,159 Speaker 1: There's a new study saying, oh you know, do you 457 00:21:12,200 --> 00:21:13,800 Speaker 1: know what's happening in the Amazon? Do you know what's 458 00:21:13,800 --> 00:21:16,359 Speaker 1: happening in Antarctica? Do you know what the temperature is 459 00:21:16,359 --> 00:21:19,560 Speaker 1: around the globe? But what people don't know and what 460 00:21:19,600 --> 00:21:21,919 Speaker 1: they don't see. But what I see all the time 461 00:21:22,200 --> 00:21:26,120 Speaker 1: as an investor is the technology response. And what we're 462 00:21:26,119 --> 00:21:29,480 Speaker 1: seeing is an amazing response in terms of the ability 463 00:21:29,800 --> 00:21:33,320 Speaker 1: for clean products to win in the marketplace on their own. 464 00:21:33,359 --> 00:21:37,719 Speaker 1: That's why I called the book Cheaper, Faster, Better. That 465 00:21:37,840 --> 00:21:40,639 Speaker 1: you have products that people choose of their own volition, 466 00:21:40,800 --> 00:21:43,920 Speaker 1: for their own reasons, and that's happening across the globe. 467 00:21:44,000 --> 00:21:48,120 Speaker 1: What we say in the climate response world is we're 468 00:21:48,119 --> 00:21:51,280 Speaker 1: not looking for a silver bullet. We're looking for silver buckshot, 469 00:21:52,080 --> 00:21:56,560 Speaker 1: literally hundreds of ideas, hundreds of companies that in fact 470 00:21:56,600 --> 00:21:58,840 Speaker 1: are going to solve this problem in the marketplace. 471 00:21:58,880 --> 00:22:00,920 Speaker 11: We're winning in the marketplace, and we really have to 472 00:22:01,000 --> 00:22:01,720 Speaker 11: keep that momentimum. 473 00:22:01,880 --> 00:22:04,240 Speaker 3: Do you think government is helping or getting in the way? 474 00:22:06,080 --> 00:22:08,480 Speaker 1: Well, I think there's I'm sure your question really is 475 00:22:08,640 --> 00:22:10,760 Speaker 1: focused mostly on the United States, and I think the 476 00:22:10,800 --> 00:22:14,680 Speaker 1: Biden administration has passed a series of legislations that most 477 00:22:14,720 --> 00:22:18,600 Speaker 1: Americans do not know anything about, but which are designed 478 00:22:18,640 --> 00:22:23,560 Speaker 1: to make clean technologies, the production of them and the 479 00:22:23,560 --> 00:22:27,000 Speaker 1: sale of them much faster. And so in that ways, government, 480 00:22:27,080 --> 00:22:29,520 Speaker 1: the US government, has held a great deal. But what's 481 00:22:29,600 --> 00:22:33,080 Speaker 1: true is this is an international problem and we really 482 00:22:33,119 --> 00:22:37,840 Speaker 1: need international cooperation between countries, with America in a leadership position, 483 00:22:38,000 --> 00:22:40,160 Speaker 1: so that we have the same rules, the same standards, 484 00:22:40,160 --> 00:22:41,680 Speaker 1: the same measurement around the world. 485 00:22:41,800 --> 00:22:44,120 Speaker 2: Let's talk about one industry which is in the headlines 486 00:22:44,160 --> 00:22:46,320 Speaker 2: every single day, and it's EVS And you know where 487 00:22:46,320 --> 00:22:48,320 Speaker 2: I'm going with this. We've talked about this all morning. 488 00:22:48,359 --> 00:22:51,359 Speaker 2: This new BYD hybrid with a super long range of 489 00:22:51,359 --> 00:22:55,960 Speaker 2: two thousand kilometers thirteen eight hundred dollars, and the policy 490 00:22:56,000 --> 00:22:58,520 Speaker 2: of this administration, and the next one of is Donald 491 00:22:58,520 --> 00:23:00,399 Speaker 2: Trump Volume two is going to be to put up 492 00:23:00,440 --> 00:23:02,840 Speaker 2: the walls make it really difficult to buy that car. 493 00:23:03,040 --> 00:23:05,520 Speaker 2: Do you think China has comparative advantages to tackle the 494 00:23:05,560 --> 00:23:08,280 Speaker 2: things that you're concerned about that we should embrace. 495 00:23:09,720 --> 00:23:13,600 Speaker 1: So I think that China has a very troubled economy 496 00:23:13,720 --> 00:23:17,880 Speaker 1: and they are using the power of the government to 497 00:23:17,920 --> 00:23:20,879 Speaker 1: try and win in the clean energy arena to create 498 00:23:21,000 --> 00:23:25,000 Speaker 1: jobs and some economic momentum. So do I think that 499 00:23:25,119 --> 00:23:29,719 Speaker 1: BID gets advantages that in effect it is unfair competition 500 00:23:29,800 --> 00:23:31,719 Speaker 1: between BID and American car makers? 501 00:23:31,840 --> 00:23:33,840 Speaker 11: Sure, I absolutely do. 502 00:23:33,840 --> 00:23:36,879 Speaker 1: Do I think that a thirteen thousand dollars car that 503 00:23:36,920 --> 00:23:39,320 Speaker 1: you can drive to Miami from New York is a 504 00:23:39,359 --> 00:23:42,760 Speaker 1: game changer in terms of clean energy? I also think 505 00:23:42,840 --> 00:23:45,400 Speaker 1: that do I think you guys have been talking, we're 506 00:23:45,440 --> 00:23:48,399 Speaker 1: just talking all the time about I think they call 507 00:23:48,440 --> 00:23:51,160 Speaker 1: it inflation. It sounded like the nineteen eighties in this room. 508 00:23:51,440 --> 00:23:52,360 Speaker 1: Every single. 509 00:23:53,880 --> 00:23:55,280 Speaker 11: I mean crazy. 510 00:23:54,880 --> 00:23:58,199 Speaker 1: Attention to every single bond auction. Yeah, okay, Well, you 511 00:23:58,240 --> 00:24:00,639 Speaker 1: think a thirteen thousand dollars car make the difference in 512 00:24:00,680 --> 00:24:02,320 Speaker 1: terms of the inflation equation? 513 00:24:02,960 --> 00:24:04,160 Speaker 11: Absolutely, it does. 514 00:24:04,560 --> 00:24:06,119 Speaker 1: So when we look around the world, this is a 515 00:24:06,160 --> 00:24:10,080 Speaker 1: global problem. It requires a global solution. China is the 516 00:24:10,080 --> 00:24:13,359 Speaker 1: biggest emitter by far, almost the third of global emissions. 517 00:24:13,560 --> 00:24:16,159 Speaker 1: It is also the country which is focused on winning 518 00:24:16,200 --> 00:24:20,480 Speaker 1: this from an industrial standpoint, you know, leading in terms 519 00:24:20,480 --> 00:24:23,200 Speaker 1: of solar panels, evs. 520 00:24:22,840 --> 00:24:23,720 Speaker 11: And everything else. 521 00:24:24,119 --> 00:24:25,960 Speaker 1: So you know, as far as I'm concerned, from an 522 00:24:26,000 --> 00:24:29,119 Speaker 1: American standpoint, we have to compete in this. This is 523 00:24:29,160 --> 00:24:32,199 Speaker 1: critical for US game on. But everything we do in 524 00:24:32,240 --> 00:24:36,000 Speaker 1: that will in fact help save these there's all this crisis. 525 00:24:36,040 --> 00:24:39,119 Speaker 6: There is ultimately a question though about industrial policy in 526 00:24:39,160 --> 00:24:42,840 Speaker 6: places like the US and Europe is less efficient than say, 527 00:24:43,040 --> 00:24:45,440 Speaker 6: having it all in a centralized place that's perfecting it. 528 00:24:45,440 --> 00:24:49,360 Speaker 6: It's not advantageous to us competitively, but it isn't necessarily 529 00:24:49,400 --> 00:24:51,600 Speaker 6: going to advance the aim of trying to get to 530 00:24:51,640 --> 00:24:54,680 Speaker 6: a cleaner world. If everyone has their separate industrial policies, 531 00:24:54,720 --> 00:24:56,879 Speaker 6: that's competing and duplicating all of the processes. I mean, 532 00:24:56,880 --> 00:24:59,480 Speaker 6: how much do you sort of embrace just some of 533 00:24:59,520 --> 00:25:01,920 Speaker 6: the cheap goods and how much do you say NOE 534 00:25:02,000 --> 00:25:05,240 Speaker 6: national security prompts some of the environmental concerns, at least 535 00:25:05,240 --> 00:25:05,640 Speaker 6: for now. 536 00:25:06,440 --> 00:25:10,000 Speaker 1: Absolutely I get that. I mean, at my heart, I'm 537 00:25:10,000 --> 00:25:12,960 Speaker 1: a believer. Maybe it's from my econ one oh one 538 00:25:13,040 --> 00:25:17,399 Speaker 1: courses decades ago. I'm a free trader in the sense that, yeah, 539 00:25:17,640 --> 00:25:21,440 Speaker 1: the world produces the products in the places where it's 540 00:25:21,440 --> 00:25:25,359 Speaker 1: best to produce those products, and American consumers get the 541 00:25:25,400 --> 00:25:27,840 Speaker 1: advantage of that, and we do the things that we 542 00:25:27,920 --> 00:25:30,800 Speaker 1: do best. And you know, the issue is, Okay, that's 543 00:25:30,840 --> 00:25:33,920 Speaker 1: how the world equilibrates. China is dumping. That means they're 544 00:25:33,920 --> 00:25:37,360 Speaker 1: giving us stuff very, very cheap. That's really hard for 545 00:25:37,480 --> 00:25:40,119 Speaker 1: us to compete with sometimes from an industrial standpoint, but 546 00:25:40,160 --> 00:25:42,800 Speaker 1: from a consumer standpoint, from an inflation standpoint, from a 547 00:25:42,880 --> 00:25:44,960 Speaker 1: environmental standpoint, that's a gift to the world. 548 00:25:45,160 --> 00:25:47,359 Speaker 6: So do you think that there is too much of 549 00:25:47,400 --> 00:25:50,119 Speaker 6: a sort of industrial policy on a regional basis and 550 00:25:50,119 --> 00:25:52,159 Speaker 6: there's just embrace free trade, or do you think that 551 00:25:52,280 --> 00:25:54,679 Speaker 6: right now is a moment to lean into developing and 552 00:25:54,720 --> 00:25:59,000 Speaker 6: competing on a domestic front, even at the expense of 553 00:25:59,040 --> 00:25:59,720 Speaker 6: the advancement. 554 00:26:00,119 --> 00:26:02,720 Speaker 1: What I can see when I talk about silver Buckshot, 555 00:26:03,200 --> 00:26:06,439 Speaker 1: that is hundreds of companies doing hundreds of different things, 556 00:26:06,640 --> 00:26:09,200 Speaker 1: and all of them growing like a weed and creating 557 00:26:09,240 --> 00:26:11,200 Speaker 1: a lot of jobs. So I'm not worried about the 558 00:26:11,280 --> 00:26:14,160 Speaker 1: United States abilities to compete. I know we can compete, 559 00:26:14,280 --> 00:26:16,360 Speaker 1: and I think when I look around the world, I mean, 560 00:26:16,359 --> 00:26:19,520 Speaker 1: look at let's just take a step back. So cars, 561 00:26:19,640 --> 00:26:22,320 Speaker 1: you guys want to talk about cars. What is the 562 00:26:22,359 --> 00:26:25,080 Speaker 1: car company in the United States that has grown like 563 00:26:25,119 --> 00:26:27,960 Speaker 1: a weed that's worth hundreds of billions of dollars, which 564 00:26:28,000 --> 00:26:32,040 Speaker 1: isn't in Detroit? Okay, So if we're really trying to 565 00:26:32,080 --> 00:26:34,320 Speaker 1: protect the status quo, which is what I hear you 566 00:26:34,400 --> 00:26:36,240 Speaker 1: guys saying, is we need to protect the status quo 567 00:26:36,400 --> 00:26:39,320 Speaker 1: the existing companies. That's really hard to do. Like the 568 00:26:39,440 --> 00:26:42,439 Speaker 1: companies that are going to succeed are the companies that 569 00:26:42,480 --> 00:26:46,919 Speaker 1: are going to be on the cutting edge of the cheapest, best, cheaper, faster, better. Okay, 570 00:26:47,760 --> 00:26:50,719 Speaker 1: let's produce the cheaper, faster, better products. And let's what 571 00:26:50,760 --> 00:26:53,000 Speaker 1: we're saying is we need to protect these jobs that 572 00:26:53,080 --> 00:26:56,679 Speaker 1: exist in companies that aren't evolving fast enough. Now is 573 00:26:56,680 --> 00:26:59,120 Speaker 1: it true that China's dumping? Yeah, and when you say 574 00:26:59,119 --> 00:27:02,119 Speaker 1: they have better industrial policy, I would excuse me for 575 00:27:02,160 --> 00:27:04,199 Speaker 1: saying this, but really because I'd take a look at 576 00:27:04,240 --> 00:27:06,400 Speaker 1: the little deeper at their economy and say, wow, they've 577 00:27:06,480 --> 00:27:08,960 Speaker 1: really messed things up to a fare thee well. 578 00:27:08,640 --> 00:27:11,400 Speaker 6: To this point, how much can this be done from 579 00:27:11,440 --> 00:27:14,439 Speaker 6: central planning, you know, especially through the idea of subsidies 580 00:27:14,640 --> 00:27:16,720 Speaker 6: for electric vehicles at a time when a lot of 581 00:27:16,720 --> 00:27:20,000 Speaker 6: people are saying hybrids probably are the better, more ecologically 582 00:27:20,080 --> 00:27:21,480 Speaker 6: friendly vehicle, so. 583 00:27:21,560 --> 00:27:23,879 Speaker 1: Then they'll buy them. That's my point. How are we, 584 00:27:23,960 --> 00:27:26,000 Speaker 1: I say, cheaper, faster, better? How will win the climate 585 00:27:26,040 --> 00:27:29,119 Speaker 1: work in the marketplace? Letting people make their own decisions. 586 00:27:29,200 --> 00:27:31,600 Speaker 1: I don't like central planning, you know what. I think 587 00:27:31,600 --> 00:27:34,040 Speaker 1: three hundred and thirty million Americans are smarter than any 588 00:27:34,160 --> 00:27:37,240 Speaker 1: group of central planners in the world, including in Washington, DC. 589 00:27:37,720 --> 00:27:40,719 Speaker 1: Let the American people decide. That's why I love capitalism. 590 00:27:40,960 --> 00:27:45,879 Speaker 1: It's disperse decision making. It's like democracy in economics. Human 591 00:27:45,920 --> 00:27:49,000 Speaker 1: beings get to make their own choices for their own reasons, 592 00:27:49,080 --> 00:27:49,840 Speaker 1: and they're smart. 593 00:27:50,359 --> 00:27:53,080 Speaker 11: And that's why. That's how we're going to win. 594 00:27:53,560 --> 00:27:55,080 Speaker 1: That's how we're going to save ourselves, and that's what 595 00:27:55,080 --> 00:27:56,080 Speaker 1: we've traditionally done. 596 00:27:56,200 --> 00:27:56,840 Speaker 11: We've done that. 597 00:27:57,359 --> 00:28:00,200 Speaker 2: We've heard some automakers compare and complain about some of 598 00:28:00,200 --> 00:28:01,720 Speaker 2: the things you're talking about, and I think it is 599 00:28:01,760 --> 00:28:04,800 Speaker 2: important the automakers are saying, ultimately we want to leave 600 00:28:04,800 --> 00:28:06,959 Speaker 2: it to the marketplace, but the government is setting these 601 00:28:07,000 --> 00:28:10,200 Speaker 2: targets that we can't reach because the infrastructure does not exist. 602 00:28:10,280 --> 00:28:12,480 Speaker 2: Yet we get and get back to front. We've got 603 00:28:12,520 --> 00:28:14,600 Speaker 2: it the wrong way around. What would you change tomorrow 604 00:28:14,880 --> 00:28:17,680 Speaker 2: about the policy towards say EVS and the build out. 605 00:28:17,840 --> 00:28:18,959 Speaker 11: Well, everybody's focused. 606 00:28:19,280 --> 00:28:21,439 Speaker 1: To be fair, you guys are really focused on EVS, 607 00:28:21,480 --> 00:28:26,119 Speaker 1: which is playing two three companies in the United States 608 00:28:26,119 --> 00:28:28,920 Speaker 1: that are very old that in fact did not lead 609 00:28:29,000 --> 00:28:32,200 Speaker 1: the ev revolution, in fact tried to push back against 610 00:28:32,200 --> 00:28:36,200 Speaker 1: the ev revolution for a really long period of time, right, 611 00:28:36,280 --> 00:28:38,880 Speaker 1: And the company that actually leaned into it was the 612 00:28:38,880 --> 00:28:42,320 Speaker 1: one that sells many more Yeah evs than any other. 613 00:28:42,400 --> 00:28:43,560 Speaker 11: Company in the United States. 614 00:28:44,000 --> 00:28:48,200 Speaker 1: So doesn't that making my point that in fact it's 615 00:28:48,200 --> 00:28:51,720 Speaker 1: about innovation, it's about change, it's about being in the 616 00:28:51,760 --> 00:28:54,680 Speaker 1: front with the product that is in fact cheaper, faster 617 00:28:54,800 --> 00:28:57,120 Speaker 1: and better. That that's how we win, and that trying 618 00:28:57,160 --> 00:29:00,640 Speaker 1: to protect protect people from those forces. You know, I 619 00:29:00,640 --> 00:29:02,600 Speaker 1: always say to people, say, what will happen if there's 620 00:29:02,600 --> 00:29:05,719 Speaker 1: a Republican administration? I say, you can't stop people from 621 00:29:05,760 --> 00:29:09,120 Speaker 1: buying the cheap, good product. You know, it's the old 622 00:29:09,120 --> 00:29:12,280 Speaker 1: story about King Canute putting is throne in the middle 623 00:29:12,320 --> 00:29:14,440 Speaker 1: of the waves and telling the waves to stop coming in. 624 00:29:15,120 --> 00:29:18,760 Speaker 11: Yeah, good luck that you can't do it right. 625 00:29:19,080 --> 00:29:21,240 Speaker 2: So do you think we're overemphasizing the importance of who's 626 00:29:21,240 --> 00:29:22,480 Speaker 2: in a white house for this transition? 627 00:29:22,800 --> 00:29:25,080 Speaker 3: And if that's the case, it's important. Should it matter 628 00:29:25,320 --> 00:29:26,120 Speaker 3: who's important? 629 00:29:26,160 --> 00:29:27,720 Speaker 1: But not for the reason you're saying. Go on, tell 630 00:29:27,760 --> 00:29:32,040 Speaker 1: me why, Because what I'm saying is economics. Trump, you know, wins, 631 00:29:32,800 --> 00:29:36,160 Speaker 1: the good products, the cheap products win. But this is 632 00:29:36,240 --> 00:29:41,680 Speaker 1: a question about global response, not American response. You were 633 00:29:41,720 --> 00:29:44,479 Speaker 1: seeing it through American eyes. This world is a lot 634 00:29:44,480 --> 00:29:46,360 Speaker 1: bigger than the United States of American. It takes it 635 00:29:46,520 --> 00:29:50,920 Speaker 1: and so we need international cooperation so that the Chinese 636 00:29:51,000 --> 00:29:54,760 Speaker 1: companies are held to the same standards as American companies, 637 00:29:55,080 --> 00:29:56,320 Speaker 1: so that around the world. 638 00:29:56,720 --> 00:29:58,880 Speaker 11: Okay, China is trying to win this industry. 639 00:29:58,920 --> 00:30:01,560 Speaker 1: They're by far the biggest a minter of greenhouse gases, 640 00:30:01,600 --> 00:30:03,880 Speaker 1: and their greenhouse gases went up five percent last year. 641 00:30:04,840 --> 00:30:08,240 Speaker 1: Their greenhouse gas increase was more than the world's increase. 642 00:30:09,000 --> 00:30:12,200 Speaker 1: So let's be clear. If we do the international cooperation, 643 00:30:12,520 --> 00:30:15,760 Speaker 1: that's how we get a level playing field if we 644 00:30:15,960 --> 00:30:20,240 Speaker 1: measure emissions so people know right down through their supply chain. 645 00:30:20,760 --> 00:30:24,120 Speaker 1: That's how we get every company on the same playing field. 646 00:30:24,440 --> 00:30:27,800 Speaker 1: That's under Republican administration. Do I think that will happen. 647 00:30:28,720 --> 00:30:33,080 Speaker 1: I would be very skeptical that a Republican administration believes 648 00:30:33,600 --> 00:30:39,080 Speaker 1: in international institutions, in international standards, in building the information 649 00:30:39,320 --> 00:30:41,480 Speaker 1: systems to make all of that possible. 650 00:30:41,560 --> 00:30:44,320 Speaker 6: Maybe I'm revealing too much, but I remember being a ten, eleven, 651 00:30:44,480 --> 00:30:47,560 Speaker 6: twelve year old and learning about the deforestation of the 652 00:30:47,640 --> 00:30:50,080 Speaker 6: Amazon and not being able to sleep at night. And then, 653 00:30:50,160 --> 00:30:51,719 Speaker 6: you know, as I got older, reading all of these 654 00:30:51,760 --> 00:30:53,760 Speaker 6: things about global warming and just it we were all 655 00:30:53,800 --> 00:30:56,120 Speaker 6: evil and you know, all contributing to the. 656 00:30:57,760 --> 00:30:59,800 Speaker 3: Rapid destruction of this globe. 657 00:31:00,200 --> 00:31:02,520 Speaker 6: And it made me kind of tune out after a while, 658 00:31:02,560 --> 00:31:04,200 Speaker 6: because if I wanted to sleep at night, I wanted 659 00:31:04,240 --> 00:31:05,840 Speaker 6: to feel like I could actually have a normal life. 660 00:31:05,880 --> 00:31:07,080 Speaker 11: It was hard to even pay attention. 661 00:31:07,600 --> 00:31:10,440 Speaker 6: How much is that making it difficult to really get 662 00:31:10,480 --> 00:31:14,680 Speaker 6: people engaged, to really get the investment strategies to continue 663 00:31:15,000 --> 00:31:18,680 Speaker 6: with ecological sorts of focuses, because we've seen a lot 664 00:31:18,680 --> 00:31:19,520 Speaker 6: of pullback from that. 665 00:31:20,160 --> 00:31:22,520 Speaker 1: Well, Lisa, that's why I wrote the book to have 666 00:31:22,640 --> 00:31:26,040 Speaker 1: Lisa sleep well pretty much, and to. 667 00:31:26,080 --> 00:31:27,800 Speaker 11: Say that I deserve to get paid for it. I'm 668 00:31:27,920 --> 00:31:29,000 Speaker 11: just I'm not even going to go there. 669 00:31:29,040 --> 00:31:32,200 Speaker 1: It goes without saying. For goodness sakes, John, that's obvious. 670 00:31:32,360 --> 00:31:32,480 Speaker 8: You know. 671 00:31:32,680 --> 00:31:34,960 Speaker 1: My point is this, Look, there are two big memes 672 00:31:35,040 --> 00:31:39,200 Speaker 1: in America about energy and about decarbonization and climate. And 673 00:31:39,280 --> 00:31:42,120 Speaker 1: the memes are one, We're an oil and gas driven 674 00:31:42,160 --> 00:31:43,480 Speaker 1: society and that will always be true. 675 00:31:43,520 --> 00:31:44,240 Speaker 11: That is not true. 676 00:31:44,480 --> 00:31:46,400 Speaker 1: That is absolutely not true. Every country in the world, 677 00:31:46,960 --> 00:31:49,720 Speaker 1: every single country in the world, has agreed we need 678 00:31:49,800 --> 00:31:51,640 Speaker 1: to get off oil and gas, that we need to 679 00:31:51,680 --> 00:31:53,640 Speaker 1: get off fossil fuels. And the second one is we're 680 00:31:53,680 --> 00:31:56,800 Speaker 1: in a doom loop, like we are destroying the natural world. 681 00:31:56,880 --> 00:31:59,600 Speaker 1: We can't stop ourselves from destroying the natural world. You know, 682 00:31:59,680 --> 00:32:02,160 Speaker 1: all the terrible things are going to happen. And the 683 00:32:02,200 --> 00:32:05,600 Speaker 1: point of my book is, now, this is a huge 684 00:32:05,640 --> 00:32:08,760 Speaker 1: struggle that we all need to join in on. But 685 00:32:08,880 --> 00:32:11,080 Speaker 1: we have the tools and the abilities to win it. 686 00:32:11,160 --> 00:32:13,760 Speaker 1: We will inevitably win it, but we have to win 687 00:32:13,800 --> 00:32:17,680 Speaker 1: it as fast as possible. Basically, to create a safe society, 688 00:32:18,240 --> 00:32:22,520 Speaker 1: to avoid almost unimaginable human suffering, but also to have 689 00:32:22,760 --> 00:32:25,760 Speaker 1: American lead a new century in terms of doing the 690 00:32:25,840 --> 00:32:27,960 Speaker 1: right thing and winning. So in terms of the Amazon, 691 00:32:28,480 --> 00:32:33,720 Speaker 1: the Amazon has been providing a service to the rest. 692 00:32:33,520 --> 00:32:35,680 Speaker 11: Of the world for free forever. 693 00:32:35,800 --> 00:32:37,600 Speaker 1: It's the so called lungs of the world, and thirty 694 00:32:37,640 --> 00:32:41,120 Speaker 1: percent of it's in drought now, which is a huge problem. 695 00:32:41,640 --> 00:32:44,120 Speaker 1: But what we need if we have the international measurement 696 00:32:44,160 --> 00:32:46,840 Speaker 1: systems that I was talking about. Basically, it's a system 697 00:32:46,880 --> 00:32:50,440 Speaker 1: for trying to measure value being created and trying to 698 00:32:50,520 --> 00:32:53,320 Speaker 1: move money to compensate people for doing all the things 699 00:32:53,360 --> 00:32:56,320 Speaker 1: they're doing for each other for free, and charge people 700 00:32:56,400 --> 00:32:59,160 Speaker 1: for doing all the things to hurt other people for free. 701 00:33:00,120 --> 00:33:02,160 Speaker 1: That's really what we're talking about changing in this world. 702 00:33:02,640 --> 00:33:04,640 Speaker 2: Tom this was thoughtful stuff and hopefully we can catch 703 00:33:04,720 --> 00:33:07,040 Speaker 2: up again before November. I have a bigger conversation about 704 00:33:07,040 --> 00:33:08,040 Speaker 2: this selection. Thank you, sir. 705 00:33:09,280 --> 00:33:10,600 Speaker 11: Just remember we can win this. 706 00:33:10,880 --> 00:33:11,680 Speaker 8: We will win this. 707 00:33:12,120 --> 00:33:14,080 Speaker 11: We should keep our chins up and let America do 708 00:33:14,160 --> 00:33:14,560 Speaker 11: its job. 709 00:33:15,560 --> 00:33:19,080 Speaker 2: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast, bringing you the best 710 00:33:19,160 --> 00:33:22,440 Speaker 2: in markets, economics, angio politics. You can watch the show 711 00:33:22,520 --> 00:33:25,440 Speaker 2: live on Bloomberg TV weekday mornings from six am to 712 00:33:25,600 --> 00:33:29,320 Speaker 2: nine am. Eastern, Subscribe to the podcast on Apple, Spotify 713 00:33:29,480 --> 00:33:31,720 Speaker 2: or anywhere else you listen, and as always, on the 714 00:33:31,720 --> 00:33:34,120 Speaker 2: Bloomberg terminal and the Bloomberg Business app.