1 00:00:25,480 --> 00:00:30,520 Speaker 1: Fresh episode of Fish Bites, your regularly scheduled podcast show 2 00:00:30,600 --> 00:00:34,600 Speaker 1: covering all things Miami Barlins. I am Eli Susman, the 3 00:00:34,680 --> 00:00:38,680 Speaker 1: managing editor at Fish Stripes. We are at fish stripes 4 00:00:38,680 --> 00:00:42,440 Speaker 1: dot com, at fish Stripes across all our social media 5 00:00:42,560 --> 00:00:48,520 Speaker 1: channels on Twitter, Instagram, Facebook, YouTube, etc. Feeling pretty healthy 6 00:00:48,600 --> 00:00:51,040 Speaker 1: right now myself hoping the same is true for all 7 00:00:51,040 --> 00:00:54,080 Speaker 1: of you guys, taking the steps you need to weather 8 00:00:54,280 --> 00:00:57,160 Speaker 1: this storm that we're all going through as a global 9 00:00:57,200 --> 00:01:02,480 Speaker 1: community right now. Of a bittersweet time to record a show, 10 00:01:02,720 --> 00:01:05,880 Speaker 1: this should have been reacting to the opening series of 11 00:01:06,200 --> 00:01:10,280 Speaker 1: the twenty twenty Marlins regular season that has obviously been 12 00:01:10,319 --> 00:01:13,800 Speaker 1: pushed back quite a way in reality, at least a 13 00:01:13,840 --> 00:01:16,480 Speaker 1: couple months away from getting things started at the major 14 00:01:16,560 --> 00:01:19,120 Speaker 1: league level if we do get started at all here 15 00:01:19,160 --> 00:01:23,039 Speaker 1: in twenty twenty. But Fits Stripes are still keeping you entertained. 16 00:01:23,319 --> 00:01:26,000 Speaker 1: We're still covering everything that there is to cover in 17 00:01:26,360 --> 00:01:30,360 Speaker 1: real time, as well as creating our own exercises to 18 00:01:30,440 --> 00:01:33,679 Speaker 1: analyze the team even further. And it's not just Fish 19 00:01:33,720 --> 00:01:38,200 Speaker 1: Bites here on this podcast channel, we have Earning Their Stripes, 20 00:01:38,200 --> 00:01:41,560 Speaker 1: which is our show focused specifically on the top prospects 21 00:01:41,560 --> 00:01:45,640 Speaker 1: and minor leaguers in the Marlins organization. We just published 22 00:01:45,680 --> 00:01:49,680 Speaker 1: our longest episode ever of ETS. It was a two 23 00:01:49,680 --> 00:01:53,440 Speaker 1: and a half hour conference call, edited it down to 24 00:01:53,640 --> 00:01:57,520 Speaker 1: about two hours, and then split that into two separate episodes, 25 00:01:57,520 --> 00:02:00,600 Speaker 1: but in total about two hours of conversation. You can 26 00:02:00,640 --> 00:02:04,080 Speaker 1: hear right here on the same podcast channel of our 27 00:02:04,200 --> 00:02:07,960 Speaker 1: updated Fish Stripes Top thirty rankings, looking at all the 28 00:02:07,960 --> 00:02:11,520 Speaker 1: best prospects in the Marlins organization heading into twenty twenty. 29 00:02:12,200 --> 00:02:14,400 Speaker 1: It had been a few months since our previous update, 30 00:02:14,560 --> 00:02:17,400 Speaker 1: so this reacts to some new information that we gathered 31 00:02:17,639 --> 00:02:20,800 Speaker 1: over the offseason and by watching spring trending games. It 32 00:02:20,919 --> 00:02:25,560 Speaker 1: was a five person conference call, including myself, Louis Davila, 33 00:02:26,280 --> 00:02:31,120 Speaker 1: Ethan Badowski, Spencer Morris, and Ian Smith. All of them 34 00:02:31,160 --> 00:02:33,800 Speaker 1: brought some great points to the table. If you haven't 35 00:02:33,800 --> 00:02:35,720 Speaker 1: already listened to that, just a little bit of a 36 00:02:35,760 --> 00:02:38,840 Speaker 1: tease right here for you. This clip was a great 37 00:02:38,840 --> 00:02:42,280 Speaker 1: one from Spencer comparing six Dough in Jazz the top 38 00:02:42,320 --> 00:02:45,720 Speaker 1: two prospects in the Marlins organization At the moment. 39 00:02:46,160 --> 00:02:49,079 Speaker 2: I think between him and six Though, with Jazz, you're 40 00:02:49,120 --> 00:02:54,560 Speaker 2: getting more upside on the top end, whereas six though 41 00:02:54,680 --> 00:02:58,560 Speaker 2: is a higher probability guy. I think, more or less 42 00:02:58,960 --> 00:03:04,400 Speaker 2: barring like severe injury trouble six though, if nothing changes 43 00:03:04,880 --> 00:03:10,160 Speaker 2: with him, I think he's about a number three starter. 44 00:03:10,760 --> 00:03:14,240 Speaker 2: If he does start to like Ethan was talking about, 45 00:03:14,639 --> 00:03:17,679 Speaker 2: through a few less strikes and work outside the zone 46 00:03:17,680 --> 00:03:22,639 Speaker 2: a little bit more, I think he can improve upon 47 00:03:22,720 --> 00:03:26,519 Speaker 2: that projection, and I think that's a realistic hope, And 48 00:03:26,919 --> 00:03:29,680 Speaker 2: if I had to guess, I would think that's something 49 00:03:29,680 --> 00:03:31,400 Speaker 2: that will happen with six though, and I think he 50 00:03:31,440 --> 00:03:35,480 Speaker 2: can be closer to a number two starter. But with Jazz, 51 00:03:35,720 --> 00:03:39,280 Speaker 2: I think you're talking about a guy who has like 52 00:03:39,840 --> 00:03:46,160 Speaker 2: six win potential and shortstop, which is something that a 53 00:03:46,320 --> 00:03:50,720 Speaker 2: very small number of players in the minor leagues can claim. 54 00:03:51,560 --> 00:03:56,520 Speaker 2: If his hit tool doesn't progress a great deal, he's 55 00:03:56,560 --> 00:03:59,160 Speaker 2: probably more of like a three or four win player. 56 00:03:59,240 --> 00:04:04,280 Speaker 2: But his power really just pops. He has plus raw 57 00:04:04,520 --> 00:04:08,560 Speaker 2: and he really gets to absolutely all of it, and 58 00:04:08,680 --> 00:04:11,120 Speaker 2: he's a lot to stay up the middle defensively, So 59 00:04:11,160 --> 00:04:14,520 Speaker 2: I think I personally think his back can be just 60 00:04:14,640 --> 00:04:17,800 Speaker 2: like about a shade below average, and I think he'll 61 00:04:17,880 --> 00:04:20,520 Speaker 2: draw his fair share of walks. So I think you're 62 00:04:20,520 --> 00:04:23,960 Speaker 2: talking about a heart of the order hitter with very 63 00:04:24,000 --> 00:04:27,480 Speaker 2: good defensive shortstop and that's a hell of a player. 64 00:04:28,320 --> 00:04:32,039 Speaker 1: Later on in that episode, we covered first baseman Leywin Diez, 65 00:04:32,320 --> 00:04:34,720 Speaker 1: who shut up the rankings all the way to now 66 00:04:34,800 --> 00:04:38,600 Speaker 1: number six in the Marlin system. So here's Lewis fould 67 00:04:38,640 --> 00:04:42,680 Speaker 1: by Ethan talking about Leylan and why we're so optimistic 68 00:04:42,720 --> 00:04:44,040 Speaker 1: about his future with the team. 69 00:04:44,480 --> 00:04:48,360 Speaker 3: My first time covering Jacksonville last summer, and I was 70 00:04:48,440 --> 00:04:51,200 Speaker 3: so excited to go see six Do Sanchez and he's 71 00:04:51,400 --> 00:04:55,200 Speaker 3: facing the Twins double a team I think it's the 72 00:04:55,240 --> 00:04:58,359 Speaker 3: Blue Wahoos, And this is when Leywen was still on 73 00:04:58,400 --> 00:05:02,000 Speaker 3: that team. He still was absolutely dominating that game. I 74 00:05:02,000 --> 00:05:03,839 Speaker 3: think he had only given up a couple of runs 75 00:05:03,880 --> 00:05:06,640 Speaker 3: in the first inning. He was cruising. But the only 76 00:05:06,720 --> 00:05:10,600 Speaker 3: guy who was consistently barreling him with Leywan Diaz, and 77 00:05:11,000 --> 00:05:14,320 Speaker 3: I hadn't really heard of him until that point. So 78 00:05:14,920 --> 00:05:17,320 Speaker 3: I'm in the press box with a couple other Twins 79 00:05:17,360 --> 00:05:20,240 Speaker 3: prospects that are taking down track man data and the 80 00:05:20,279 --> 00:05:23,640 Speaker 3: one I was talking to was Griffin Jacks, and I'm 81 00:05:23,640 --> 00:05:25,679 Speaker 3: talking to him like who is this guy? Like he's 82 00:05:25,760 --> 00:05:28,080 Speaker 3: hitting really well, and he said, watch out for this guy. 83 00:05:28,200 --> 00:05:31,400 Speaker 3: And next thing you know Marlin's trade for him, and 84 00:05:31,480 --> 00:05:35,359 Speaker 3: he's popping up rankings again, and he's he hit twenty 85 00:05:35,400 --> 00:05:37,520 Speaker 3: seven home runs last year and he's just come out 86 00:05:37,520 --> 00:05:41,279 Speaker 3: of no you never know who's gonna come and yeah, 87 00:05:41,279 --> 00:05:45,039 Speaker 3: there you go. So Marlins have their first basement of 88 00:05:45,040 --> 00:05:48,200 Speaker 3: the future. And I think it's legit. This guy. His 89 00:05:48,320 --> 00:05:51,359 Speaker 3: presence at the plate, he's huge, he's intimidating, he hits 90 00:05:51,520 --> 00:05:54,200 Speaker 3: pretty much anything. I think he's gonna be a fantastic 91 00:05:54,320 --> 00:05:55,360 Speaker 3: player for the Marlins. 92 00:05:55,880 --> 00:05:59,600 Speaker 4: The Marlins are obsessed with him. Miss always talks about 93 00:05:59,640 --> 00:06:04,400 Speaker 4: how much the Marlins absolutely adore Leland and how they 94 00:06:04,520 --> 00:06:07,520 Speaker 4: think he's sure fire number one, you know, the first 95 00:06:07,560 --> 00:06:09,839 Speaker 4: basement in the future. And so I think you just 96 00:06:09,920 --> 00:06:12,680 Speaker 4: kind of got to trust the Marlins on that, with 97 00:06:12,920 --> 00:06:15,360 Speaker 4: how excited they are about this guy in terms of 98 00:06:15,640 --> 00:06:18,120 Speaker 4: sending him up the boards. If they're excited about him, 99 00:06:18,120 --> 00:06:20,000 Speaker 4: why are we not excited about him, you know what 100 00:06:20,040 --> 00:06:21,320 Speaker 4: I mean? And he's produced. 101 00:06:21,360 --> 00:06:23,320 Speaker 5: I mean, he came over and hit a bunch of 102 00:06:23,360 --> 00:06:26,520 Speaker 5: bombs and was tagging extra base hits every night, it 103 00:06:26,560 --> 00:06:30,800 Speaker 5: seems like so. And the other factor is he's the 104 00:06:30,839 --> 00:06:31,880 Speaker 5: only first basement in. 105 00:06:31,839 --> 00:06:33,680 Speaker 4: The system, you know, for a long time, we were 106 00:06:33,720 --> 00:06:37,039 Speaker 4: talking about moving some of the outfielders that weren't as 107 00:06:37,080 --> 00:06:39,560 Speaker 4: strong defensively to first base, just to give us a 108 00:06:39,560 --> 00:06:40,360 Speaker 4: first base option. 109 00:06:41,080 --> 00:06:43,040 Speaker 5: But now we have one, and we have a really 110 00:06:43,040 --> 00:06:43,440 Speaker 5: good one. 111 00:06:43,880 --> 00:06:48,039 Speaker 4: I think he was ranked on Pipeline's top ten first basements. 112 00:06:48,040 --> 00:06:50,960 Speaker 4: He's probably like a fringe one hundred prospect top one 113 00:06:51,000 --> 00:06:54,279 Speaker 4: hundred prospects right now, I'd say, so yeah, I think 114 00:06:54,680 --> 00:06:57,440 Speaker 4: you got to give him some crediting, kind of give 115 00:06:57,480 --> 00:06:59,760 Speaker 4: him a little boost just off of the you know, 116 00:07:00,120 --> 00:07:03,880 Speaker 4: of attention that he's getting from within the major leagues. 117 00:07:04,560 --> 00:07:08,400 Speaker 1: In part two of that Top thirty episode, we covered 118 00:07:08,680 --> 00:07:13,440 Speaker 1: shortstop Jose Salas, who was the biggest international signee by 119 00:07:13,440 --> 00:07:17,160 Speaker 1: the Marlins last summer, and even though he hasn't officially 120 00:07:17,200 --> 00:07:21,760 Speaker 1: appeared in any professional games yet, shows extraordinary promise. As 121 00:07:22,000 --> 00:07:24,120 Speaker 1: Ian explains in this clip. 122 00:07:24,200 --> 00:07:26,920 Speaker 6: I think that they saw this is going to be 123 00:07:26,960 --> 00:07:30,520 Speaker 6: a top fifteen player in the system by mid season. 124 00:07:30,680 --> 00:07:32,520 Speaker 6: I think he's got the potential to start the year 125 00:07:32,520 --> 00:07:35,280 Speaker 6: in the GCL, probably the youngest player in the GCL, 126 00:07:35,360 --> 00:07:37,720 Speaker 6: but he's played stateside before, so he knows how to 127 00:07:37,760 --> 00:07:40,000 Speaker 6: play over here. So I think he's got a real 128 00:07:40,080 --> 00:07:43,960 Speaker 6: chance to be a higher prospect and everybody in everybody's 129 00:07:44,000 --> 00:07:46,960 Speaker 6: bored right. He has a grown man's body. At sixteen 130 00:07:47,000 --> 00:07:49,080 Speaker 6: years old, he'll be in the same league that I 131 00:07:49,200 --> 00:07:51,880 Speaker 6: seen was in this year. I think he has the 132 00:07:51,960 --> 00:07:54,320 Speaker 6: tools to be a twenty twenty type player when he's 133 00:07:54,320 --> 00:07:58,239 Speaker 6: at his prime. He can play second, third, and short. 134 00:07:58,320 --> 00:07:59,920 Speaker 6: Currently I don't think he'll end up at short due 135 00:07:59,920 --> 00:08:03,280 Speaker 6: to size, but as an overall player and its potential 136 00:08:03,320 --> 00:08:05,400 Speaker 6: and what you can do going forward are really like 137 00:08:05,480 --> 00:08:07,120 Speaker 6: Jose Saw as an overall player. 138 00:08:08,040 --> 00:08:10,760 Speaker 1: And while we're on the topic of prospects, there was 139 00:08:10,840 --> 00:08:14,120 Speaker 1: some news that came out on Saturday morning. Saturday at 140 00:08:14,160 --> 00:08:18,680 Speaker 1: noon Eastern was the rough deadline for teams to make 141 00:08:18,720 --> 00:08:23,520 Speaker 1: any transactions before a freeze went into effect and doing 142 00:08:23,560 --> 00:08:26,120 Speaker 1: any sort of roster maintenance that they wanted to. Most 143 00:08:26,160 --> 00:08:28,480 Speaker 1: teams actually jumped the gun on that, and they were 144 00:08:28,520 --> 00:08:31,160 Speaker 1: doing it earlier this coming week. By the Marlins waited 145 00:08:31,240 --> 00:08:35,280 Speaker 1: up to the last minute before optioning outfielder Monte Harrison 146 00:08:35,600 --> 00:08:38,600 Speaker 1: and right hander Nick Knider down to Triple A Wichita. 147 00:08:38,960 --> 00:08:42,240 Speaker 1: Monte was number seven on our updated Top thirty list 148 00:08:42,320 --> 00:08:46,120 Speaker 1: nighter at number twelve, both guys that have significant triple 149 00:08:46,160 --> 00:08:48,640 Speaker 1: A experience, and if we do have any sort of 150 00:08:48,640 --> 00:08:52,000 Speaker 1: twenty twenty season health permitting, both of those guys will 151 00:08:52,000 --> 00:08:54,400 Speaker 1: have some sort of role at the major league level 152 00:08:54,600 --> 00:08:58,640 Speaker 1: during twenty twenty. By optioning them now, it makes it 153 00:08:58,679 --> 00:09:00,800 Speaker 1: seem pretty unlikely that they're going to be on the 154 00:09:00,840 --> 00:09:04,280 Speaker 1: opening day roster, and that was already the expectation. Some 155 00:09:04,800 --> 00:09:08,959 Speaker 1: service time manipulation consideration going on there, but also the 156 00:09:09,000 --> 00:09:12,200 Speaker 1: simple fact that players with more experience that the Marlins 157 00:09:12,200 --> 00:09:15,480 Speaker 1: are determined to find out about this year. Going with 158 00:09:15,520 --> 00:09:19,240 Speaker 1: someone like Lewis Brentson on the active roster or Magneris Sierra. 159 00:09:19,320 --> 00:09:22,040 Speaker 1: These outfielders that have struggled in their major league action, 160 00:09:22,559 --> 00:09:25,560 Speaker 1: and you want to see they've nothing left to prove 161 00:09:25,600 --> 00:09:29,480 Speaker 1: in the minors, but they also have very discouraging results 162 00:09:29,480 --> 00:09:31,160 Speaker 1: in the majors thiss far, you want to find out 163 00:09:31,240 --> 00:09:34,960 Speaker 1: everything you can about them at the show, and with 164 00:09:35,760 --> 00:09:38,120 Speaker 1: just the flexibility that you have with guys like Harrison 165 00:09:38,160 --> 00:09:41,200 Speaker 1: and Kniert, it makes more sense to focus on the 166 00:09:41,200 --> 00:09:45,960 Speaker 1: guys that have more urgency to prove themselves in twenty twenty. 167 00:09:45,960 --> 00:09:48,360 Speaker 1: The same thing applies for Kniert. A whole bunch of 168 00:09:48,440 --> 00:09:52,319 Speaker 1: rotation candidates that the Marlins have who are pre arbitration eligible. 169 00:09:53,040 --> 00:09:54,880 Speaker 1: Before the Marlins reach a point where you got to 170 00:09:54,880 --> 00:09:57,280 Speaker 1: start paying these guys, they want to find out whether 171 00:09:57,360 --> 00:10:01,120 Speaker 1: or not they're actually sufficient and can actually get players out. 172 00:10:01,280 --> 00:10:06,640 Speaker 1: So neither presumably behind guys like Eliezer Hernandez and Jordan Yamamoto. 173 00:10:06,720 --> 00:10:09,400 Speaker 1: It doesn't mean that he's an inferior starting option to 174 00:10:09,440 --> 00:10:12,120 Speaker 1: those guys, just for the time being. This is about 175 00:10:12,120 --> 00:10:15,959 Speaker 1: managing and staggering the talent that you have in your organization, 176 00:10:16,200 --> 00:10:18,880 Speaker 1: especially heading into a year where in all likelihood the 177 00:10:18,920 --> 00:10:22,120 Speaker 1: team isn't gonna contend. You need to have other priorities 178 00:10:22,120 --> 00:10:24,120 Speaker 1: when it comes to developing your team the right way. 179 00:10:24,520 --> 00:10:26,800 Speaker 1: So there is an article on fish stripes dot com 180 00:10:27,080 --> 00:10:31,880 Speaker 1: by yours truly looking at how the decision to option 181 00:10:31,960 --> 00:10:34,840 Speaker 1: those guys and the outlook for them in the near 182 00:10:34,960 --> 00:10:41,920 Speaker 1: term future. But we're gonna spend most of this episode 183 00:10:42,000 --> 00:10:45,560 Speaker 1: talking about the new deal that reportedly was agreed to 184 00:10:45,880 --> 00:10:49,400 Speaker 1: on Thursday night between the players and the owners in 185 00:10:49,440 --> 00:10:54,320 Speaker 1: Major League Baseball about how to adjust for the likely 186 00:10:54,360 --> 00:10:56,920 Speaker 1: to be shortened twenty twenty season. They to strike a 187 00:10:56,960 --> 00:11:02,200 Speaker 1: deal about changing some long standing factors they had to 188 00:11:02,480 --> 00:11:06,559 Speaker 1: actually recalculate a lot of the business of baseball understanding 189 00:11:06,720 --> 00:11:09,440 Speaker 1: really conceding that this regular season is not going to 190 00:11:09,440 --> 00:11:12,120 Speaker 1: be one hundred and sixty two games, not going to 191 00:11:12,160 --> 00:11:15,720 Speaker 1: play all the games she wanted to, and perhaps not 192 00:11:15,760 --> 00:11:18,640 Speaker 1: even being able to play those games at the locations 193 00:11:18,679 --> 00:11:21,200 Speaker 1: they were planned to be playing at, with a whole 194 00:11:21,240 --> 00:11:23,120 Speaker 1: lot of ripple effects that go all the way down 195 00:11:23,520 --> 00:11:26,520 Speaker 1: to the amateur level. The deal was ratified and made 196 00:11:26,520 --> 00:11:29,800 Speaker 1: official on Friday, and as I just mentioned, Saturday is 197 00:11:29,800 --> 00:11:33,560 Speaker 1: when of the transaction freeze went into effect, so that 198 00:11:33,760 --> 00:11:35,960 Speaker 1: we now have a number of weeks and possibly a 199 00:11:35,960 --> 00:11:39,760 Speaker 1: couple months of silence on that end while the team 200 00:11:39,840 --> 00:11:45,480 Speaker 1: simply weighed out this coronavirus pandemic. If you're listening to 201 00:11:45,520 --> 00:11:49,040 Speaker 1: fish Bites, you are very likely partial towards the Marlins 202 00:11:49,360 --> 00:11:51,760 Speaker 1: and very curious about how that team in particular is 203 00:11:51,760 --> 00:11:55,880 Speaker 1: being affected by this new agreement between the players and 204 00:11:55,920 --> 00:11:58,600 Speaker 1: the owners. That's what we're going to be covering, breaking 205 00:11:58,640 --> 00:12:02,800 Speaker 1: down all these specific scenarios that could be changed or 206 00:12:02,880 --> 00:12:06,200 Speaker 1: will be changed because of how the season is being 207 00:12:06,200 --> 00:12:11,440 Speaker 1: delayed and abbreviated. A fair warning that most of this 208 00:12:11,520 --> 00:12:14,280 Speaker 1: information is going to be frustrating that overall, I feel 209 00:12:14,320 --> 00:12:16,160 Speaker 1: like the Marlins are one of these teams that is 210 00:12:16,200 --> 00:12:20,240 Speaker 1: going to be more negatively impacted by the delayed season, 211 00:12:20,280 --> 00:12:23,440 Speaker 1: by the lost revenue, etc. Than most other teams. So 212 00:12:23,480 --> 00:12:27,000 Speaker 1: that is a little annoying, feels somewhat unfair at a 213 00:12:27,080 --> 00:12:29,280 Speaker 1: time when the franchise has put so much effort into 214 00:12:29,280 --> 00:12:31,520 Speaker 1: this rebuild and was just on the verge of turning 215 00:12:31,520 --> 00:12:35,920 Speaker 1: that corner and taking steps to really contend on a 216 00:12:35,960 --> 00:12:39,240 Speaker 1: consistent basis, which is something that we haven't gotten from 217 00:12:39,240 --> 00:12:42,760 Speaker 1: this team at any point during its franchise history, and 218 00:12:43,440 --> 00:12:48,520 Speaker 1: these circumstances simply throw a wrinkle into those plans. That's 219 00:12:48,520 --> 00:12:52,320 Speaker 1: what I'll be explaining why, on a point by point basis, 220 00:12:52,400 --> 00:12:57,000 Speaker 1: is how all this is affecting in a frustrating way 221 00:12:57,320 --> 00:13:00,520 Speaker 1: for the Marlins heading into the twenty twenty season, assuming 222 00:13:00,520 --> 00:13:03,720 Speaker 1: that we do have a twenty twenty season. The first 223 00:13:03,720 --> 00:13:07,160 Speaker 1: point is something that hasn't been entirely confirmed. It was 224 00:13:07,480 --> 00:13:12,200 Speaker 1: Bob Nightingale of USA Today reporting that it's expected that 225 00:13:12,720 --> 00:13:16,560 Speaker 1: the teams and the players will agree for expanded active 226 00:13:16,640 --> 00:13:20,480 Speaker 1: rosters during the first month of the regular season if 227 00:13:20,480 --> 00:13:23,560 Speaker 1: we do get a regular season from twenty six players 228 00:13:23,760 --> 00:13:28,280 Speaker 1: up to twenty nine players with Nightingale, he's been covering 229 00:13:28,320 --> 00:13:32,480 Speaker 1: Major League baseball in depth for decades, broken plenty of 230 00:13:32,520 --> 00:13:38,080 Speaker 1: great stories, landed some exclusive interviews. He has had a 231 00:13:38,240 --> 00:13:41,840 Speaker 1: distinguished career on the beat, but he's also had more 232 00:13:41,880 --> 00:13:46,680 Speaker 1: than his fair share of gaffes of misrepresenting certain amounts 233 00:13:46,720 --> 00:13:51,960 Speaker 1: of information, occasionally just simply getting things wrong. At the moment, 234 00:13:52,240 --> 00:13:55,000 Speaker 1: it hasn't been confirmed anywhere else that this plan will 235 00:13:55,040 --> 00:13:58,960 Speaker 1: go into effect, but we'll assume for our purposes that 236 00:13:59,000 --> 00:14:03,000 Speaker 1: it will happen that act expanded rosters would be here. 237 00:14:04,080 --> 00:14:07,240 Speaker 1: The rationale for that would be that both the players 238 00:14:07,280 --> 00:14:09,040 Speaker 1: and the teams, we're going to get to that in 239 00:14:09,080 --> 00:14:11,760 Speaker 1: a moment, it's in everybody's best interest to play as 240 00:14:11,800 --> 00:14:15,240 Speaker 1: many games as possible, which would mean that when the 241 00:14:15,280 --> 00:14:19,320 Speaker 1: season gets underway, you would see potentially pre scheduled double 242 00:14:19,360 --> 00:14:21,840 Speaker 1: headers on a consistent basis in order to cram in 243 00:14:21,960 --> 00:14:25,960 Speaker 1: more of those games without adding any additional traveling to it, 244 00:14:27,080 --> 00:14:29,880 Speaker 1: and simply removing off days as well. That is something 245 00:14:29,880 --> 00:14:34,040 Speaker 1: that was reported in multiple places about how the teams 246 00:14:34,080 --> 00:14:37,359 Speaker 1: and the players were looking at a rule that currently 247 00:14:37,400 --> 00:14:41,840 Speaker 1: prohibits scheduling too many games on consecutive days. How both 248 00:14:41,880 --> 00:14:46,000 Speaker 1: sides may be interested in lifting that limitation so as 249 00:14:46,040 --> 00:14:48,960 Speaker 1: to schedule more games and to spread out the workload 250 00:14:48,960 --> 00:14:52,040 Speaker 1: among more players on the active roster, where no player 251 00:14:52,360 --> 00:14:55,600 Speaker 1: is put in a super dangerous position because the rosters 252 00:14:55,640 --> 00:14:59,960 Speaker 1: themselves allow for more different lineup options, and spreading out 253 00:15:00,160 --> 00:15:03,280 Speaker 1: the pitchers in a way that they get sufficient rest, etc. 254 00:15:04,200 --> 00:15:05,960 Speaker 1: On that topic, we do have a new article on 255 00:15:06,000 --> 00:15:10,120 Speaker 1: Fish Stripes from Tyler Wilson looking at what the projected 256 00:15:10,200 --> 00:15:12,920 Speaker 1: roster would be if it was a normal twenty six 257 00:15:13,000 --> 00:15:17,160 Speaker 1: man situation, and how the three additional spots would change 258 00:15:17,160 --> 00:15:18,960 Speaker 1: some of the decisions at the Marlins, like how they 259 00:15:19,000 --> 00:15:22,040 Speaker 1: may use those extra spots to give themselves both a 260 00:15:22,080 --> 00:15:26,400 Speaker 1: competitive advantage and a developmental advantage, putting players there that 261 00:15:26,480 --> 00:15:28,840 Speaker 1: they feel are ready to break through to the show 262 00:15:29,200 --> 00:15:31,880 Speaker 1: and may have not had room for those players under 263 00:15:31,960 --> 00:15:36,160 Speaker 1: normal circumstances. Separate from Tyler's article, you could check that out. 264 00:15:36,640 --> 00:15:38,840 Speaker 1: In my opinion, the couple players on the Marlins that 265 00:15:39,280 --> 00:15:43,280 Speaker 1: most clearly benefit from having expanded rosters would be Number 266 00:15:43,280 --> 00:15:45,960 Speaker 1: one is magneris Sierra. It was certainly trending in the 267 00:15:46,000 --> 00:15:50,040 Speaker 1: direction that the speedy outfielder was the odd man out 268 00:15:50,320 --> 00:15:54,400 Speaker 1: for the Marlins. Still so young in his career, but 269 00:15:55,240 --> 00:15:58,400 Speaker 1: such a limited player as well, there's good reason to 270 00:15:58,440 --> 00:16:02,720 Speaker 1: believe that it'll never be every day starting outfielder for 271 00:16:02,760 --> 00:16:05,720 Speaker 1: any team. He's had very mixed results of the Marlins 272 00:16:05,720 --> 00:16:08,600 Speaker 1: at the major league level. Doesn't impact the ball all 273 00:16:08,640 --> 00:16:10,520 Speaker 1: that well, but does bring a lot to the table 274 00:16:10,680 --> 00:16:14,560 Speaker 1: with his legs and with his defense. He could potentially 275 00:16:14,560 --> 00:16:17,480 Speaker 1: help you win games, especially in the later endings as 276 00:16:17,520 --> 00:16:22,120 Speaker 1: a super sub in those situations. If you have expanded 277 00:16:22,160 --> 00:16:27,160 Speaker 1: active rosters, then it allows you for more maneuverability in games, 278 00:16:27,200 --> 00:16:31,240 Speaker 1: more substitutions. He could be a guy Sierra that comes 279 00:16:31,280 --> 00:16:34,440 Speaker 1: off the bench in high leverage situations, whether to preserve 280 00:16:34,480 --> 00:16:37,640 Speaker 1: a close lead or to go on base and try 281 00:16:37,680 --> 00:16:39,600 Speaker 1: to swipe a few bags get himself in a better 282 00:16:39,640 --> 00:16:42,000 Speaker 1: position to score. This is the type of player that 283 00:16:42,080 --> 00:16:45,160 Speaker 1: if you have more specialized rosters, and when you could 284 00:16:45,200 --> 00:16:47,800 Speaker 1: justify having players in more limited roles because you have 285 00:16:47,880 --> 00:16:51,120 Speaker 1: these extra spots. He's a guy that certainly would take 286 00:16:51,160 --> 00:16:53,760 Speaker 1: advantage of that. He's out of minor league options. If 287 00:16:53,800 --> 00:16:55,920 Speaker 1: the Marlins weren't going to put him on the active roster, 288 00:16:56,200 --> 00:16:58,600 Speaker 1: they would attempt to trade him, and frankly, I don't 289 00:16:58,640 --> 00:17:01,120 Speaker 1: think that trade value is all that high because that 290 00:17:01,280 --> 00:17:03,720 Speaker 1: new acquiring team, he would also be out of options. 291 00:17:04,080 --> 00:17:05,760 Speaker 1: He'd have to find some team that is willing to 292 00:17:05,760 --> 00:17:09,359 Speaker 1: put him on the active roster or risk trying to 293 00:17:09,440 --> 00:17:12,400 Speaker 1: run him through waivers and get through them that way. 294 00:17:12,720 --> 00:17:15,080 Speaker 1: In any event, I think the best case scenario for 295 00:17:15,119 --> 00:17:18,120 Speaker 1: the Marlins would be having these extra active roster spots 296 00:17:18,359 --> 00:17:23,080 Speaker 1: having more time to see this outfield hierarchy really play out, 297 00:17:23,080 --> 00:17:26,080 Speaker 1: because it's a very complicated mix. They have more outfielders 298 00:17:26,119 --> 00:17:29,360 Speaker 1: than they can reasonably use at the same time, and 299 00:17:29,880 --> 00:17:31,919 Speaker 1: this would simply bide them some more time to make 300 00:17:31,960 --> 00:17:34,959 Speaker 1: the right decision at that position. And the second player 301 00:17:35,080 --> 00:17:37,440 Speaker 1: that really benefits a lot would be Stirling Sharp, the 302 00:17:37,520 --> 00:17:42,240 Speaker 1: Rule five draft pick. As a rule, those players also 303 00:17:42,280 --> 00:17:45,280 Speaker 1: cannot be optioned down to the minors during their first 304 00:17:45,280 --> 00:17:47,680 Speaker 1: season after being a Rule five pick. If the Marlins 305 00:17:47,760 --> 00:17:50,240 Speaker 1: want to keep Sharp long term, you have to have 306 00:17:50,320 --> 00:17:52,240 Speaker 1: him on the active roster for at least half the 307 00:17:52,280 --> 00:17:55,399 Speaker 1: season and the other half of the season. The only 308 00:17:56,160 --> 00:17:59,119 Speaker 1: alternative there is if he's injured and on the injured list. 309 00:18:00,280 --> 00:18:02,639 Speaker 1: Assuming he's not injured, then that means you actually have 310 00:18:02,680 --> 00:18:04,199 Speaker 1: to have him on the active roster and you have 311 00:18:04,280 --> 00:18:07,000 Speaker 1: to use him at some point when you have these 312 00:18:07,000 --> 00:18:09,400 Speaker 1: additional spots, and presumably they would use one of those 313 00:18:09,400 --> 00:18:11,720 Speaker 1: spots at least for a pitcher, and you have extra 314 00:18:11,840 --> 00:18:16,920 Speaker 1: depth that means you can, for lack of a better word, 315 00:18:17,200 --> 00:18:20,800 Speaker 1: hide the rule five draft pick. Sharp has limited experience 316 00:18:20,840 --> 00:18:24,439 Speaker 1: at Double A and none at Triple A level, So 317 00:18:24,480 --> 00:18:27,720 Speaker 1: although we perform pretty well in spring training, there is 318 00:18:27,720 --> 00:18:30,359 Speaker 1: a possibility that he's one of the weakest links on 319 00:18:30,400 --> 00:18:33,480 Speaker 1: this roster for the twenty twenty season. The Marlins took 320 00:18:33,560 --> 00:18:37,040 Speaker 1: him because they really like his long term potential, potentially 321 00:18:37,080 --> 00:18:39,439 Speaker 1: someone that would get better and more acclimated to the 322 00:18:39,440 --> 00:18:41,680 Speaker 1: team as the season goes on. You just want to 323 00:18:41,680 --> 00:18:43,760 Speaker 1: put him in a position early on in the season 324 00:18:44,119 --> 00:18:47,160 Speaker 1: where he has the best chance to be successful and 325 00:18:47,440 --> 00:18:51,320 Speaker 1: isn't overwhelmed by the big jump in competition level. So 326 00:18:51,400 --> 00:18:54,320 Speaker 1: these extra active roster spots would make it all the 327 00:18:54,359 --> 00:18:56,480 Speaker 1: more certain that he makes the team. I think the 328 00:18:56,520 --> 00:19:00,399 Speaker 1: percentages of him making the roster before all these complications, 329 00:19:00,880 --> 00:19:04,160 Speaker 1: it was like a ninety six ninety seven percent chance. 330 00:19:04,200 --> 00:19:05,680 Speaker 1: It was almost a lock that he was going to 331 00:19:05,720 --> 00:19:08,479 Speaker 1: be on the team anyway, but this makes it one 332 00:19:08,560 --> 00:19:10,960 Speaker 1: hundred one hundred percent chance that he's going to be 333 00:19:10,960 --> 00:19:14,719 Speaker 1: on the Marlins roster to begin the season, and barring 334 00:19:14,720 --> 00:19:18,119 Speaker 1: a truly disastrous performance early in the year, he'll be 335 00:19:18,160 --> 00:19:20,960 Speaker 1: a Marlin for the rest of twenty twenty and hopefully 336 00:19:21,080 --> 00:19:26,439 Speaker 1: seven years several years beyond that. Meanwhile, off the field, 337 00:19:26,840 --> 00:19:29,440 Speaker 1: we need to be realistic about how revenue is being 338 00:19:29,480 --> 00:19:33,280 Speaker 1: impacted across the majors and especially for the Marlins. Pretty 339 00:19:33,320 --> 00:19:36,400 Speaker 1: well accepted that the Marlins are a low revenue team 340 00:19:36,520 --> 00:19:40,640 Speaker 1: in Major League Baseball right now. Historically, they've constantly had 341 00:19:40,680 --> 00:19:44,560 Speaker 1: issues with their attendance numbers, and especially for the last 342 00:19:44,600 --> 00:19:48,919 Speaker 1: decade or so, they've been strapped to this very poor 343 00:19:49,080 --> 00:19:52,399 Speaker 1: regional television deal. They get paid out less money from 344 00:19:52,440 --> 00:19:55,840 Speaker 1: the television network from Fox Sports Florida than any other 345 00:19:55,880 --> 00:20:00,080 Speaker 1: major League team gets from their own network partner, and 346 00:20:00,240 --> 00:20:03,919 Speaker 1: that contract was up for renegotiation after this coming season. 347 00:20:04,000 --> 00:20:07,159 Speaker 1: Heading into twenty twenty one, that revenue should be growing, 348 00:20:07,800 --> 00:20:11,680 Speaker 1: but this throws such a wrench into those plans. For one, 349 00:20:11,960 --> 00:20:14,440 Speaker 1: the Marlins probably aren't even going to get their full 350 00:20:14,520 --> 00:20:17,320 Speaker 1: payout from Fox Sports Florida's supposed to be about twenty 351 00:20:17,359 --> 00:20:20,959 Speaker 1: million dollars this year. But if you have an abbreviated 352 00:20:20,960 --> 00:20:24,720 Speaker 1: schedule and fewer games being broadcast, I have to imagine 353 00:20:24,720 --> 00:20:26,960 Speaker 1: that the networks are not going to pay out the 354 00:20:27,000 --> 00:20:30,000 Speaker 1: same amount of money for those broadcast rights because they 355 00:20:30,040 --> 00:20:32,680 Speaker 1: don't have as much content to fill at the moment. 356 00:20:32,760 --> 00:20:39,360 Speaker 1: What the abbreviated what's the word I'm looking for? The 357 00:20:39,400 --> 00:20:42,560 Speaker 1: Fox Sports Florida has improvised by re airing a lot 358 00:20:42,600 --> 00:20:45,879 Speaker 1: of twenty nineteen games on their network right now on 359 00:20:45,920 --> 00:20:49,120 Speaker 1: a daily basis, re airing the wins from the Marelands 360 00:20:49,440 --> 00:20:52,399 Speaker 1: twenty nineteen season, But that just draws a fraction of 361 00:20:52,440 --> 00:20:56,520 Speaker 1: the audience that a actual live Major League Baseball game 362 00:20:56,600 --> 00:21:00,840 Speaker 1: would in that same situation. And on the ten side, 363 00:21:00,880 --> 00:21:06,199 Speaker 1: if you simply have fewer games to attend, I suppose 364 00:21:06,280 --> 00:21:10,000 Speaker 1: each individual game takes on some added importance, but also 365 00:21:10,080 --> 00:21:13,360 Speaker 1: facing the reality that there would be more double headers 366 00:21:13,440 --> 00:21:17,040 Speaker 1: in the situation of an abbreviated season, that those are 367 00:21:17,040 --> 00:21:20,199 Speaker 1: more games that it's just going to be difficult to 368 00:21:20,240 --> 00:21:23,360 Speaker 1: really maximize the attendance at each of those turnouts if 369 00:21:23,359 --> 00:21:27,760 Speaker 1: some of them are scheduled at inconvenient hours for the 370 00:21:27,800 --> 00:21:32,240 Speaker 1: typical consumer, and all that really hurts the Marlins moving forward, 371 00:21:32,520 --> 00:21:35,920 Speaker 1: because they entered this year with one of the lowest 372 00:21:35,920 --> 00:21:39,479 Speaker 1: payrolls in baseball. I think, entering all this craziness, they 373 00:21:39,480 --> 00:21:43,240 Speaker 1: were in the low seventy million dollar range seventy to 374 00:21:43,359 --> 00:21:47,679 Speaker 1: seventy three million or so, slightly lower payroll than the 375 00:21:47,720 --> 00:21:51,400 Speaker 1: previous season, and much lower than what Jeffrey Lauria maintained 376 00:21:51,600 --> 00:21:54,880 Speaker 1: his final couple years in charge of the team. They 377 00:21:54,880 --> 00:21:57,920 Speaker 1: were inevitably heading for a spike in twenty twenty one, 378 00:21:58,119 --> 00:22:01,440 Speaker 1: because I mean a foremost importance, the team was interested 379 00:22:01,480 --> 00:22:04,560 Speaker 1: in contending. As we head into twenty twenty one, they 380 00:22:04,560 --> 00:22:06,760 Speaker 1: have so many of these premium prospects that are about 381 00:22:06,800 --> 00:22:09,399 Speaker 1: to break through to the show. And if just a 382 00:22:09,440 --> 00:22:12,040 Speaker 1: few of them really hit and fill some positions of need, 383 00:22:12,359 --> 00:22:13,919 Speaker 1: then all of a sudden, you're just looking for some 384 00:22:14,040 --> 00:22:17,280 Speaker 1: complimentary veterans on the free agent market or via trades 385 00:22:17,600 --> 00:22:20,920 Speaker 1: to plug the final holes and really get this team 386 00:22:21,080 --> 00:22:24,840 Speaker 1: in an exciting place. But if the Marlins are not 387 00:22:24,880 --> 00:22:28,560 Speaker 1: going to make as much money as usual from fans 388 00:22:28,720 --> 00:22:32,120 Speaker 1: and from TV and from sponsors because of the limited 389 00:22:32,200 --> 00:22:36,560 Speaker 1: inventory of games in twenty twenty and I think more importantly, 390 00:22:36,600 --> 00:22:38,240 Speaker 1: and we're going to get to this coming up later, 391 00:22:38,600 --> 00:22:40,440 Speaker 1: is how if you have a shortened season, then you 392 00:22:40,480 --> 00:22:43,800 Speaker 1: have fewer opportunities for these young prospects to actually play 393 00:22:43,880 --> 00:22:47,600 Speaker 1: in the majors. It's a shorter schedule of the thinking 394 00:22:47,640 --> 00:22:50,199 Speaker 1: heading into twenty twenty, is said. The Marlins acquired some 395 00:22:50,240 --> 00:22:54,680 Speaker 1: really interesting veteran players such as Jonathan vr Hayshus Aguilar, 396 00:22:54,800 --> 00:22:59,080 Speaker 1: Corey Dickerson, Brandon Kinsler, and in a best case scenario, 397 00:22:59,160 --> 00:23:01,280 Speaker 1: a couple of those veterans and performed great early on 398 00:23:01,320 --> 00:23:04,160 Speaker 1: in the season, the prospects behind them in the farm 399 00:23:04,280 --> 00:23:07,400 Speaker 1: system show themselves to be ready for a new challenge, 400 00:23:07,440 --> 00:23:10,960 Speaker 1: and then you trade those veterans to open up roster 401 00:23:11,040 --> 00:23:15,400 Speaker 1: spots for the younger talent to get promoted and move 402 00:23:15,440 --> 00:23:17,840 Speaker 1: into those roles and try to prove themselves at the 403 00:23:17,880 --> 00:23:21,320 Speaker 1: major league level. If you have a shortened season, then 404 00:23:21,760 --> 00:23:23,600 Speaker 1: I mean, what does that even mean for what the 405 00:23:23,760 --> 00:23:27,439 Speaker 1: mid season trade deadline would be. How much would in 406 00:23:27,480 --> 00:23:30,480 Speaker 1: a couple of these cases, especially with agui Lar coming 407 00:23:30,520 --> 00:23:33,440 Speaker 1: off a down year and he really needed some time 408 00:23:33,520 --> 00:23:36,600 Speaker 1: during the first half of a regular season to establish 409 00:23:36,640 --> 00:23:41,359 Speaker 1: himself as a very valuable power hitter, teams would not 410 00:23:41,400 --> 00:23:45,160 Speaker 1: be valuing him at that level without having a significant 411 00:23:45,160 --> 00:23:48,919 Speaker 1: sample size during the regular season to really prove that. 412 00:23:50,040 --> 00:23:53,239 Speaker 1: So this throws all that makes it really complicated. If 413 00:23:53,280 --> 00:23:57,200 Speaker 1: you just have fewer games to work with, it doesn't 414 00:23:57,240 --> 00:24:00,200 Speaker 1: give you as many opportunities to audition these veteran players, 415 00:24:00,680 --> 00:24:03,640 Speaker 1: and you simply don't have the innings in the at 416 00:24:03,680 --> 00:24:08,040 Speaker 1: bats to fit in as many players as possible. As 417 00:24:08,080 --> 00:24:10,720 Speaker 1: mentioned earlier, though, we have that Bob Nightingale report that 418 00:24:10,840 --> 00:24:13,480 Speaker 1: early in the season you have extra roster spots, so 419 00:24:13,680 --> 00:24:16,040 Speaker 1: you could see some young players that are on the 420 00:24:16,119 --> 00:24:18,399 Speaker 1: roster to begin with who wouldn't be in the first place. 421 00:24:18,760 --> 00:24:21,760 Speaker 1: They're just not going to have those everyday roles. That's 422 00:24:21,800 --> 00:24:24,000 Speaker 1: the whole point of having premium prospects is that you 423 00:24:24,000 --> 00:24:27,399 Speaker 1: project them to be everyday players someday, and you'd like 424 00:24:27,440 --> 00:24:30,800 Speaker 1: to see them get consistent reps as everyday players for 425 00:24:30,880 --> 00:24:34,840 Speaker 1: some stretch of time during the season. The fewer games 426 00:24:34,920 --> 00:24:38,920 Speaker 1: really hurt that development for them, and it just delays everything. 427 00:24:39,280 --> 00:24:41,040 Speaker 1: You know, the Marlins were trying to learn so much 428 00:24:41,040 --> 00:24:43,840 Speaker 1: about these young prospects at the majors in twenty twenty, 429 00:24:44,320 --> 00:24:48,960 Speaker 1: and it just puts everything on delay. Really restricts all 430 00:24:49,040 --> 00:24:52,119 Speaker 1: the different decisions that you can make and how you 431 00:24:52,160 --> 00:24:55,959 Speaker 1: can rotate in players during different segments of the season. 432 00:24:56,800 --> 00:24:59,280 Speaker 1: Just getting back to the earlier point about revenue, if 433 00:24:59,280 --> 00:25:02,480 Speaker 1: you have lesser revenue, the Marlins have committed for the 434 00:25:02,520 --> 00:25:05,800 Speaker 1: time being to pay a lot of these seasonal employees, 435 00:25:05,920 --> 00:25:10,239 Speaker 1: game day operations employees for the next couple months, and 436 00:25:10,440 --> 00:25:13,920 Speaker 1: that's the right thing to do, but realistically it does 437 00:25:14,000 --> 00:25:17,840 Speaker 1: limit the profit that the team is making. So if 438 00:25:17,880 --> 00:25:19,879 Speaker 1: you have less revenue and you're still paying some of 439 00:25:19,880 --> 00:25:24,160 Speaker 1: these same expenses then and the team wasn't really set 440 00:25:24,200 --> 00:25:28,320 Speaker 1: to contend in twenty twenty anyway, you could see them 441 00:25:28,480 --> 00:25:31,439 Speaker 1: using it as an excuse to just not spend what 442 00:25:31,480 --> 00:25:34,280 Speaker 1: they were expected to do during free agency during this 443 00:25:34,440 --> 00:25:37,200 Speaker 1: upcoming winter, this was supposed to be the time when 444 00:25:37,200 --> 00:25:39,639 Speaker 1: they finally make a big splash. To this point, the 445 00:25:39,680 --> 00:25:44,520 Speaker 1: biggest expenditure in free agency under new ownership is Corey Dickerson, 446 00:25:44,640 --> 00:25:47,040 Speaker 1: and that was only seventeen and a half million dollars 447 00:25:47,119 --> 00:25:51,520 Speaker 1: over two years. That's relative peanuts for teams that when 448 00:25:51,600 --> 00:25:53,960 Speaker 1: you get involved in free agency and you're actually looking 449 00:25:53,960 --> 00:25:57,879 Speaker 1: to fill everyday roles with some of those decisions, So 450 00:25:58,320 --> 00:26:02,200 Speaker 1: just to sum up, when you have these revenue challenges 451 00:26:02,280 --> 00:26:05,480 Speaker 1: because of the lack of product to sell to the network, 452 00:26:05,880 --> 00:26:08,840 Speaker 1: to your sponsors, and to your fans, it just puts 453 00:26:09,320 --> 00:26:11,959 Speaker 1: this Marlins rebuild on a bit of a delay. So 454 00:26:12,000 --> 00:26:14,520 Speaker 1: that's a frustrating part because the fans have been so 455 00:26:14,640 --> 00:26:16,879 Speaker 1: patient to this point and we've seen a lot of 456 00:26:16,920 --> 00:26:22,040 Speaker 1: positive indications and then this unprecedented situation hits and throws 457 00:26:22,080 --> 00:26:28,639 Speaker 1: things a little bit off course. Another point on the 458 00:26:28,680 --> 00:26:32,560 Speaker 1: major league level is service time. Service time is very important. 459 00:26:33,000 --> 00:26:36,320 Speaker 1: It gets it's perhaps not always very easy to follow. 460 00:26:37,040 --> 00:26:40,680 Speaker 1: It's not as sexy to follow as players game stats 461 00:26:41,200 --> 00:26:45,800 Speaker 1: and all the transactions that happen, but service time really 462 00:26:45,880 --> 00:26:47,760 Speaker 1: has an effect on a lot of the transactions that 463 00:26:47,800 --> 00:26:51,200 Speaker 1: we see. I mean, the most clear impact of service 464 00:26:51,240 --> 00:26:55,560 Speaker 1: time is free agency. Once you achieve six full years 465 00:26:55,560 --> 00:26:58,400 Speaker 1: a major league service, or very very close to six 466 00:26:58,440 --> 00:27:00,879 Speaker 1: full years of service, then you quali to be a 467 00:27:00,920 --> 00:27:04,600 Speaker 1: free agent. And Marlins made a prominent trade during the 468 00:27:04,640 --> 00:27:08,600 Speaker 1: offseason to acquire Jonathan Vr from the Baltimore Orioles. They 469 00:27:08,640 --> 00:27:10,880 Speaker 1: barely gave up anything to get him, just one low 470 00:27:11,000 --> 00:27:14,840 Speaker 1: level pitching prospect, and the commitment for Vr was very 471 00:27:14,880 --> 00:27:17,480 Speaker 1: manageable just a one year deal that ended up being 472 00:27:18,400 --> 00:27:21,479 Speaker 1: over eight million dollars for this one season, coming off 473 00:27:21,520 --> 00:27:23,600 Speaker 1: a year where he was one of the more valuable 474 00:27:23,680 --> 00:27:27,879 Speaker 1: middle infielders in baseball, and Marlins during spring training intended 475 00:27:28,000 --> 00:27:30,600 Speaker 1: they shifted him to center field, but they really saw 476 00:27:30,680 --> 00:27:34,119 Speaker 1: him as more of a They really loved his versatility overall, 477 00:27:34,160 --> 00:27:35,480 Speaker 1: so they see him as a guy that could play 478 00:27:35,520 --> 00:27:38,480 Speaker 1: a number of different positions during the season, but being 479 00:27:38,520 --> 00:27:41,520 Speaker 1: the lineup every single day in the leadoff spot. A 480 00:27:41,600 --> 00:27:44,600 Speaker 1: dynamic player, a dynamic player that is really built for 481 00:27:44,640 --> 00:27:46,720 Speaker 1: the modern age because of his versatility. 482 00:27:47,080 --> 00:27:49,359 Speaker 7: VR gets into one, he drills one high, he has 483 00:27:49,440 --> 00:27:51,520 Speaker 7: hit it deep to right field, its way back there, 484 00:27:51,840 --> 00:27:55,960 Speaker 7: and it's gone for a two run home run. Jonathan 485 00:27:56,040 --> 00:27:59,720 Speaker 7: Vr touches a two run shot off his former team 486 00:27:59,800 --> 00:28:03,520 Speaker 7: may David Hash and the Martins pull within one run. 487 00:28:06,840 --> 00:28:10,080 Speaker 1: Based on the terms of this coronavirus deal between the 488 00:28:10,240 --> 00:28:13,639 Speaker 1: MLB players and owners, we know that VR will be 489 00:28:13,720 --> 00:28:16,480 Speaker 1: a free agent after the twenty twenty season. No matter what. 490 00:28:17,080 --> 00:28:19,640 Speaker 1: He was already well over five years of service time. 491 00:28:19,680 --> 00:28:22,359 Speaker 1: He just needed a partial season in the majors this 492 00:28:22,440 --> 00:28:25,520 Speaker 1: year in order to become eligible for free agency. This 493 00:28:25,560 --> 00:28:29,359 Speaker 1: is currently his last year as an arbitration eligible player. 494 00:28:29,680 --> 00:28:33,479 Speaker 1: He obviously had a full year service time the previous season, 495 00:28:34,000 --> 00:28:36,400 Speaker 1: and he's someone that is far enough in his career 496 00:28:36,440 --> 00:28:38,360 Speaker 1: in terms of service time that he can't be sent 497 00:28:38,440 --> 00:28:41,080 Speaker 1: down to the minor leagues at any point, and even 498 00:28:41,080 --> 00:28:44,920 Speaker 1: if he's hurt, he continues to compile service time while 499 00:28:45,000 --> 00:28:48,040 Speaker 1: on the injured list. In the event of a canceled season, 500 00:28:48,520 --> 00:28:51,440 Speaker 1: then the service time situation reverts back to whatever happened 501 00:28:51,480 --> 00:28:54,680 Speaker 1: during the twenty nineteen season. So with VR, he not 502 00:28:54,720 --> 00:28:58,000 Speaker 1: only was on the Orioles roster every day of the 503 00:28:58,040 --> 00:29:01,440 Speaker 1: twenty nineteen season, he actually played every single game of 504 00:29:01,480 --> 00:29:05,760 Speaker 1: that season. Players like him will continue to be credited 505 00:29:05,920 --> 00:29:08,000 Speaker 1: with a full year of service time even if no 506 00:29:08,160 --> 00:29:13,960 Speaker 1: season is played, which creates the unusual situation frustrating situation 507 00:29:14,160 --> 00:29:17,320 Speaker 1: that he could in the event of a canceled season, 508 00:29:17,720 --> 00:29:20,480 Speaker 1: he could head into free agency without effort actually having 509 00:29:20,600 --> 00:29:23,000 Speaker 1: played for the Marlins. The Marlins would still have traded 510 00:29:23,040 --> 00:29:26,640 Speaker 1: away that young pitcher, Easton Lucas, and they would still 511 00:29:26,760 --> 00:29:30,640 Speaker 1: pay VR a small portion of that salary that they 512 00:29:30,680 --> 00:29:33,200 Speaker 1: had agreed with him to for the twenty twenty season, 513 00:29:33,440 --> 00:29:36,640 Speaker 1: but they wouldn't actually get him on the field for 514 00:29:36,640 --> 00:29:38,520 Speaker 1: any regular season games. He would be able to head 515 00:29:38,520 --> 00:29:41,440 Speaker 1: into free agency. Marlins would have the right to extend 516 00:29:41,480 --> 00:29:44,520 Speaker 1: a qualifying offer to him, but that offer would be 517 00:29:44,640 --> 00:29:48,760 Speaker 1: well north of seventeen million dollars and so certainly no 518 00:29:48,840 --> 00:29:51,480 Speaker 1: guarantee that the Marlins would be taking that kind of 519 00:29:51,560 --> 00:29:55,160 Speaker 1: risk to try to lock him up or try to 520 00:29:55,200 --> 00:29:59,200 Speaker 1: even attach him to draft pick composite compensation. The bottom 521 00:29:59,280 --> 00:30:01,760 Speaker 1: line is he's guy that everybody was so excited about, 522 00:30:02,200 --> 00:30:05,400 Speaker 1: and a deal that Marlin seemed to get, a very reasonable, 523 00:30:05,520 --> 00:30:08,440 Speaker 1: very efficient trade that they made, and it could all 524 00:30:08,480 --> 00:30:12,480 Speaker 1: be for not if, for whatever reason, the country struggles 525 00:30:12,560 --> 00:30:16,320 Speaker 1: to handle this pandemic and health officials aren't willing to 526 00:30:16,680 --> 00:30:19,840 Speaker 1: let the season go on in any form. A couple 527 00:30:19,880 --> 00:30:23,480 Speaker 1: other players affected in small ways potentially by the service 528 00:30:23,480 --> 00:30:27,480 Speaker 1: time situation are Lewis Brinson and Elias or Hernandez. Both 529 00:30:27,480 --> 00:30:30,440 Speaker 1: of them have well over one year of service time 530 00:30:30,480 --> 00:30:34,120 Speaker 1: Prinson one year and one hundred and fifteen days, Elias 531 00:30:34,200 --> 00:30:36,960 Speaker 1: or Hernandez one year and one hundred and eighteen days. 532 00:30:37,920 --> 00:30:41,920 Speaker 1: They are pre arbitration eligible, but if they're able to 533 00:30:41,920 --> 00:30:44,200 Speaker 1: get a full year of service time in the majors 534 00:30:44,200 --> 00:30:46,760 Speaker 1: this year, they have a shot, an outside shot of 535 00:30:46,880 --> 00:30:50,360 Speaker 1: Super two status. They have a chance of reaching arbitration 536 00:30:51,000 --> 00:30:55,200 Speaker 1: early even without three full years of service, and they'd 537 00:30:55,200 --> 00:30:57,600 Speaker 1: be able to go through the arbitration process and maximum 538 00:30:57,760 --> 00:31:01,320 Speaker 1: of four times. This is really a footnote in all 539 00:31:01,360 --> 00:31:05,000 Speaker 1: this one considering that both Brinton and Hernandez they spent 540 00:31:05,120 --> 00:31:07,000 Speaker 1: some time in the miners last year. They did not 541 00:31:07,040 --> 00:31:09,120 Speaker 1: get a full year of service time in twenty nineteen, 542 00:31:09,560 --> 00:31:12,600 Speaker 1: so the season is canceled. Then they're only credited with 543 00:31:12,640 --> 00:31:14,800 Speaker 1: a partial season of service time in twenty twenty, and 544 00:31:14,840 --> 00:31:17,880 Speaker 1: they wouldn't qualify. The only possible way they qualify for 545 00:31:18,160 --> 00:31:20,760 Speaker 1: this Super two status and get paid a little bit 546 00:31:20,800 --> 00:31:23,640 Speaker 1: earlier is if they are the season goes on in 547 00:31:23,680 --> 00:31:27,920 Speaker 1: twenty twenty and they spend virtually every single day on 548 00:31:27,960 --> 00:31:32,400 Speaker 1: the Marlins active roster. And I mean, the other point, frankly, 549 00:31:32,480 --> 00:31:35,520 Speaker 1: is that neither guy has been all that consistently successful 550 00:31:35,520 --> 00:31:39,400 Speaker 1: in the majors. If Brinson gets to arbitration early, and 551 00:31:40,080 --> 00:31:42,640 Speaker 1: even if he has his best year yet in twenty twenty, 552 00:31:42,960 --> 00:31:46,640 Speaker 1: but it's still not overall that much of an impactful 553 00:31:46,680 --> 00:31:49,680 Speaker 1: player at the major league level, then all that does 554 00:31:49,760 --> 00:31:53,120 Speaker 1: is it extends the possibility that he could be non tendered, 555 00:31:53,200 --> 00:31:55,800 Speaker 1: that the Marlins might be able to be leaning towards 556 00:31:55,840 --> 00:31:58,280 Speaker 1: getting rid of him in the same way they did J. T. 557 00:31:58,440 --> 00:32:02,360 Speaker 1: Riddle this past winner, Riddle reached a Super two status, 558 00:32:02,560 --> 00:32:05,240 Speaker 1: he did not have a particularly good year. He was 559 00:32:05,280 --> 00:32:07,560 Speaker 1: in line to get a raise of several hundred thousand 560 00:32:07,560 --> 00:32:11,360 Speaker 1: dollars through the arbitration process, and the Marlins simply parted 561 00:32:11,360 --> 00:32:15,720 Speaker 1: ways with him for that reason. With Hernandez, it's it's 562 00:32:15,800 --> 00:32:17,560 Speaker 1: kind of a similar story. I think he's shown much 563 00:32:17,600 --> 00:32:20,360 Speaker 1: more promise at the major league level than Brentson has, 564 00:32:20,640 --> 00:32:23,400 Speaker 1: but he doesn't have the same prospect pedigree, and we 565 00:32:23,480 --> 00:32:25,440 Speaker 1: know how much pitching death the Marlins have in the 566 00:32:25,520 --> 00:32:29,080 Speaker 1: high minors. So if he's in a situation where he's 567 00:32:29,120 --> 00:32:32,560 Speaker 1: earning several hundred thousand more, where he's earning seven hundred 568 00:32:32,640 --> 00:32:35,080 Speaker 1: or eight hundred thousand total as a salary for the 569 00:32:35,120 --> 00:32:39,080 Speaker 1: twenty twenty one season, then that's another that once again 570 00:32:39,080 --> 00:32:42,160 Speaker 1: we'll push the Marlins into potentially getting rid of him 571 00:32:42,520 --> 00:32:44,880 Speaker 1: rather than paying extra for a guy that they don't 572 00:32:44,920 --> 00:32:53,080 Speaker 1: see as a true featured player in their rebuild. Moving 573 00:32:53,120 --> 00:32:55,680 Speaker 1: on to the minor league level, and pretty far down 574 00:32:55,760 --> 00:32:58,880 Speaker 1: in the minor league level. This is most devastating for 575 00:32:59,440 --> 00:33:04,720 Speaker 1: both prospects and short season prospects. Do I mean, we 576 00:33:04,760 --> 00:33:06,560 Speaker 1: don't know for sure if there's gonna be any twenty 577 00:33:06,600 --> 00:33:09,760 Speaker 1: twenty major league season, But of course the benefits to 578 00:33:09,840 --> 00:33:13,080 Speaker 1: major league teams is that it is a wildly profitable 579 00:33:13,160 --> 00:33:18,040 Speaker 1: industry under normal circumstances. These owners are billionaires, even in 580 00:33:18,080 --> 00:33:21,880 Speaker 1: the case of the Marlins, so they can withstand what 581 00:33:22,040 --> 00:33:27,200 Speaker 1: is an extremely difficult find economic time across the entire world, 582 00:33:27,280 --> 00:33:30,200 Speaker 1: and especially in the US, the owners can withstand that 583 00:33:30,600 --> 00:33:33,040 Speaker 1: a lot of these veteran players can extend that. I mean, 584 00:33:33,080 --> 00:33:35,560 Speaker 1: part of the deal that reached between the players and 585 00:33:35,560 --> 00:33:38,160 Speaker 1: the MLB owners is that players got a bit of 586 00:33:38,200 --> 00:33:41,640 Speaker 1: a payment advance. They got a small portion of their 587 00:33:41,680 --> 00:33:45,760 Speaker 1: salaries already advanced to them into their bank accounts, even 588 00:33:45,800 --> 00:33:48,680 Speaker 1: though games haven't started, and even without a commitment that 589 00:33:48,720 --> 00:33:50,960 Speaker 1: games have been started. It was so sort of a 590 00:33:51,360 --> 00:33:54,120 Speaker 1: down payment to the players to give them some sort 591 00:33:54,520 --> 00:33:58,200 Speaker 1: of income even in these very uncertain times. But the 592 00:33:58,240 --> 00:34:01,160 Speaker 1: minor league players are not part of the union in 593 00:34:01,200 --> 00:34:04,280 Speaker 1: most cases, especially the ones that are the ones that 594 00:34:04,320 --> 00:34:06,360 Speaker 1: are not on any forty man roster, the ones that 595 00:34:06,400 --> 00:34:09,839 Speaker 1: have very recently entered the professional ranks. Their interests are 596 00:34:09,840 --> 00:34:14,280 Speaker 1: not being represented by the negotiations and not being represented 597 00:34:14,320 --> 00:34:17,680 Speaker 1: by the unions. This is an absolute killer for the 598 00:34:17,719 --> 00:34:20,640 Speaker 1: minor league teams because, yeah, aside from not having any 599 00:34:20,800 --> 00:34:24,120 Speaker 1: union representation the team owners themselves, most of these minor 600 00:34:24,239 --> 00:34:28,480 Speaker 1: league affiliates are owned privately by individual owners, not owned 601 00:34:28,480 --> 00:34:31,720 Speaker 1: by the teams, and for them when they miss games, 602 00:34:31,760 --> 00:34:33,399 Speaker 1: which is going to be a reality for them too. 603 00:34:33,800 --> 00:34:36,360 Speaker 1: The minor league season was due to open in early April, 604 00:34:36,360 --> 00:34:40,160 Speaker 1: and that has already been pushed back significantly. They don't 605 00:34:40,200 --> 00:34:42,560 Speaker 1: have these same kind of profit margins that the major 606 00:34:42,640 --> 00:34:46,759 Speaker 1: league teams do. They don't have individual television contracts, they 607 00:34:46,880 --> 00:34:50,960 Speaker 1: don't earn nearly as much from sponsorships, and obviously they 608 00:34:50,960 --> 00:34:55,000 Speaker 1: don't earn as much for selling tickets. They're pricing at 609 00:34:55,040 --> 00:34:58,040 Speaker 1: the minor league level is aimed at being very affordable 610 00:34:58,080 --> 00:35:01,160 Speaker 1: to families in order to woo them in to games 611 00:35:01,160 --> 00:35:03,880 Speaker 1: that don't have the same consequences as major league games. 612 00:35:04,440 --> 00:35:07,240 Speaker 1: They need all the scheduled games to could possibly get 613 00:35:07,600 --> 00:35:09,279 Speaker 1: and for as much work as they put in with 614 00:35:09,440 --> 00:35:14,959 Speaker 1: creative promotions and in discounts, et cetera. They really need 615 00:35:15,000 --> 00:35:18,359 Speaker 1: to play as many games as possible, and circumstances are 616 00:35:18,360 --> 00:35:22,480 Speaker 1: going to make that extraordinarily difficult this year. The more 617 00:35:22,520 --> 00:35:26,040 Speaker 1: important context for all this is that after the twenty 618 00:35:26,120 --> 00:35:30,960 Speaker 1: nineteen season, Major League Baseball in Minor League Baseball had 619 00:35:31,400 --> 00:35:35,200 Speaker 1: exchanged some very preliminary proposals about how to change the 620 00:35:35,280 --> 00:35:38,560 Speaker 1: Professional Baseball Agreement, which is going to expire after the 621 00:35:38,600 --> 00:35:42,760 Speaker 1: twenty twenty season. It's looking to make some very dramatic 622 00:35:42,920 --> 00:35:45,960 Speaker 1: changes to the way that minor league baseball is organized, 623 00:35:46,239 --> 00:35:49,160 Speaker 1: which a format that really hasn't been changed at all 624 00:35:49,200 --> 00:35:53,600 Speaker 1: in thirty years and is overdue for some dramatic shifts. 625 00:35:54,440 --> 00:35:58,160 Speaker 1: One quote unquote solution that had already been proposed by 626 00:35:58,200 --> 00:36:02,239 Speaker 1: Major League Baseball is eliminated over forty minor league franchises, 627 00:36:02,440 --> 00:36:06,400 Speaker 1: particularly ones in small towns, ones that have some limitations 628 00:36:06,400 --> 00:36:10,719 Speaker 1: in terms of travel and facilities for these developing prospects, 629 00:36:11,160 --> 00:36:14,239 Speaker 1: and in the case of the Marlins, the two affiliates 630 00:36:14,239 --> 00:36:17,400 Speaker 1: that are very vulnerable would be the Low A Clinton 631 00:36:17,480 --> 00:36:20,360 Speaker 1: lumber Kings in the Midwest League and the short season 632 00:36:20,360 --> 00:36:23,640 Speaker 1: a Batavia muff Dogs, who participate in the New York 633 00:36:23,640 --> 00:36:27,320 Speaker 1: penn League. Batavia has been a Marlins affiliate since twenty thirteen. 634 00:36:27,680 --> 00:36:30,839 Speaker 1: Clinton just started as an affiliate last year and had 635 00:36:30,880 --> 00:36:34,000 Speaker 1: some good times. But Clinton is in the middle of 636 00:36:34,080 --> 00:36:39,240 Speaker 1: nowhere Iowa. Batavia is in upstate New York. Both places 637 00:36:39,560 --> 00:36:43,600 Speaker 1: that have struggled on the attendance front, struggled to draw crowds, 638 00:36:44,080 --> 00:36:48,840 Speaker 1: and again some concerns about the level of facilities and 639 00:36:48,880 --> 00:36:51,880 Speaker 1: whether they're putting these players in the best chances to 640 00:36:51,960 --> 00:36:57,000 Speaker 1: be successful while they're developing on the farm. It's hard 641 00:36:57,000 --> 00:37:00,560 Speaker 1: for me to imagine a scenario where those franchises are 642 00:37:00,600 --> 00:37:03,560 Speaker 1: still around in twenty twenty one. Again, they were both 643 00:37:03,680 --> 00:37:07,319 Speaker 1: on this list already one of the ones that were 644 00:37:07,560 --> 00:37:12,160 Speaker 1: singled out by Major League Baseball as teams that were 645 00:37:12,200 --> 00:37:14,760 Speaker 1: not quite up to the standard that Major League Baseball 646 00:37:14,840 --> 00:37:18,960 Speaker 1: is looking for in terms of player development amenities. And 647 00:37:19,520 --> 00:37:23,000 Speaker 1: now they're losing a lot of revenue, as everybody is. 648 00:37:23,040 --> 00:37:27,080 Speaker 1: But these are places that probably don't have strong profit 649 00:37:27,160 --> 00:37:31,279 Speaker 1: margins at all. They're especially in troubled times here in 650 00:37:31,320 --> 00:37:34,600 Speaker 1: twenty twenty because of the delayed season and what's going 651 00:37:34,680 --> 00:37:38,239 Speaker 1: to be some lost games. I just don't see how 652 00:37:38,239 --> 00:37:41,759 Speaker 1: they survive. If you are a baseball fan in either 653 00:37:41,800 --> 00:37:44,959 Speaker 1: of those places. My suggestion is just to cherish every 654 00:37:44,960 --> 00:37:48,319 Speaker 1: moment you can from the twenty twenty season, because the 655 00:37:48,360 --> 00:37:56,440 Speaker 1: future is extremely murky for them. We wrap up this 656 00:37:56,520 --> 00:38:01,080 Speaker 1: discussion by looking at the consequences for Marlins and amateur scouting, 657 00:38:01,239 --> 00:38:05,759 Speaker 1: both domestically and internationally. You know that the Marlins have 658 00:38:05,840 --> 00:38:09,680 Speaker 1: certainly ramped up their spending internationally over the past couple 659 00:38:09,640 --> 00:38:13,640 Speaker 1: of years, most notably by signing the Mesa Brothers after 660 00:38:13,680 --> 00:38:16,880 Speaker 1: the twenty eighteen season, and then they had a couple 661 00:38:16,920 --> 00:38:21,239 Speaker 1: other big splashes during the twenty nineteen twenty twenty international 662 00:38:21,280 --> 00:38:25,880 Speaker 1: amateur free agent period. A guy we referenced on earning 663 00:38:25,880 --> 00:38:29,080 Speaker 1: their stripes Hose Salas, the young shortstop. They spent several 664 00:38:29,120 --> 00:38:35,120 Speaker 1: million dollars on Junior Sanchez, Ian Lewis, a couple really 665 00:38:35,160 --> 00:38:38,680 Speaker 1: projectable pitchers as well. Overall, the Marlins spent I think 666 00:38:38,719 --> 00:38:43,600 Speaker 1: about six million dollars internationally on over a dozen amateur 667 00:38:43,640 --> 00:38:47,240 Speaker 1: players that they're trying to develop first at their Dominican 668 00:38:47,280 --> 00:38:51,440 Speaker 1: academy and very soon moving over to the US and 669 00:38:51,480 --> 00:38:55,600 Speaker 1: playing at low level affiliates. So I mean, one consequence 670 00:38:55,640 --> 00:38:59,040 Speaker 1: already is that when you have this potential seismic change 671 00:38:59,040 --> 00:39:03,200 Speaker 1: to minor league baseball and short season affiliates going away entirely, 672 00:39:03,760 --> 00:39:07,239 Speaker 1: it means that these players will be developing kind of 673 00:39:07,320 --> 00:39:09,440 Speaker 1: in the dark for a couple of years. When you 674 00:39:09,480 --> 00:39:13,000 Speaker 1: have someone that's only sixteen seventeen years old, you don't 675 00:39:13,000 --> 00:39:16,160 Speaker 1: put them immediately at a full season level. And if 676 00:39:16,200 --> 00:39:19,240 Speaker 1: these short season affiliates are likely going to go away 677 00:39:19,360 --> 00:39:22,439 Speaker 1: in twenty twenty one, that means these players will be 678 00:39:23,520 --> 00:39:27,080 Speaker 1: playing in what you'd call the backfields at the spring 679 00:39:27,120 --> 00:39:31,880 Speaker 1: training facility. They'd be playing without crowds, in a different 680 00:39:31,960 --> 00:39:35,279 Speaker 1: kind of atmosphere that doesn't necessarily prepare you in the 681 00:39:35,280 --> 00:39:38,560 Speaker 1: best possible way for success in the major league level. 682 00:39:38,920 --> 00:39:43,080 Speaker 1: And it's just a much different atmosphere, a different level 683 00:39:43,160 --> 00:39:49,200 Speaker 1: of intensity without literally being under the spotlight and having 684 00:39:49,200 --> 00:39:51,560 Speaker 1: to play games in front of a live audience in 685 00:39:51,600 --> 00:39:54,400 Speaker 1: the same way that you're accustomed to doing. So, the 686 00:39:54,440 --> 00:39:59,200 Speaker 1: developmental process is very different for these international players moving forward. 687 00:39:59,560 --> 00:40:02,520 Speaker 1: And these are these are areas where the Marlins have 688 00:40:02,680 --> 00:40:05,200 Speaker 1: invested very heavily in both in terms of signing those 689 00:40:05,200 --> 00:40:09,759 Speaker 1: players and also they apparently have the construction of a 690 00:40:09,840 --> 00:40:14,240 Speaker 1: new academy in the Dominican Republic underway that costs millions 691 00:40:14,280 --> 00:40:17,799 Speaker 1: of dollars trying to upgrade the facilities over there. So 692 00:40:17,840 --> 00:40:21,840 Speaker 1: they're making big investments in these international players, and now 693 00:40:22,600 --> 00:40:26,920 Speaker 1: you're trying to adapt your entire player development philosophy because 694 00:40:26,960 --> 00:40:30,680 Speaker 1: when you bring these players to the US, their timeline 695 00:40:30,880 --> 00:40:33,920 Speaker 1: looks a lot different than it ordinarily would in previous 696 00:40:33,960 --> 00:40:37,560 Speaker 1: years for players acquired this way. And one of the 697 00:40:37,600 --> 00:40:41,080 Speaker 1: biggest talking points of all this is the MLB draft, 698 00:40:41,440 --> 00:40:45,520 Speaker 1: where the Marlins, of course, made a lot of waves 699 00:40:45,719 --> 00:40:48,320 Speaker 1: last June. In the twenty nineteen drafts, they held a 700 00:40:48,400 --> 00:40:53,480 Speaker 1: number four overall pick, and they just received acclaim for 701 00:40:53,560 --> 00:40:56,680 Speaker 1: the way that they balanced their bonus pool, acquired a 702 00:40:56,719 --> 00:40:59,919 Speaker 1: handful of really impactful players, filling a lot of hole 703 00:41:00,200 --> 00:41:04,000 Speaker 1: in their organization, and the early returns from a lot 704 00:41:04,000 --> 00:41:06,919 Speaker 1: of those players were extremely encouraging during the back half 705 00:41:06,920 --> 00:41:10,879 Speaker 1: of the twenty nineteenth season. Then in twenty twenty they're 706 00:41:10,880 --> 00:41:13,520 Speaker 1: poised to have they were poised to have the exact 707 00:41:13,560 --> 00:41:17,080 Speaker 1: same kind of draft. They held the number three overall 708 00:41:17,080 --> 00:41:19,960 Speaker 1: pick by virtue of losing one hundred and five games 709 00:41:20,000 --> 00:41:23,440 Speaker 1: of the major league level bonus pools going up a 710 00:41:23,480 --> 00:41:26,000 Speaker 1: little bit more that were supposed to Again, this was 711 00:41:26,000 --> 00:41:28,279 Speaker 1: supposed to be one of their biggest investments. For all 712 00:41:28,320 --> 00:41:30,439 Speaker 1: the money that they're saving on the major league level 713 00:41:30,480 --> 00:41:35,760 Speaker 1: by trimming major league payroll during this rebuild, they're trying 714 00:41:35,760 --> 00:41:39,360 Speaker 1: to reallocate a lot of those funds towards the amateur 715 00:41:39,440 --> 00:41:42,560 Speaker 1: level and trying to invest, trying to scout as best 716 00:41:42,600 --> 00:41:46,040 Speaker 1: you can and invest in these players that you hope 717 00:41:46,040 --> 00:41:48,880 Speaker 1: will be cornerstones of your franchise moving forward. We had 718 00:41:48,880 --> 00:41:51,760 Speaker 1: already started a lot of coverage of the twenty twenty 719 00:41:51,840 --> 00:41:54,719 Speaker 1: draft on fish Stripes, looking at all the possibilities not 720 00:41:54,800 --> 00:41:57,360 Speaker 1: just with the top overall pick, but some sleepers that 721 00:41:57,400 --> 00:41:59,719 Speaker 1: you can find in the later rounds as well, and 722 00:41:59,760 --> 00:42:02,640 Speaker 1: there fit with a Marlins organization. This was supposed to 723 00:42:02,680 --> 00:42:05,680 Speaker 1: be a huge milestone of this rebuilt, this upcoming draft, 724 00:42:06,320 --> 00:42:10,720 Speaker 1: and what we've learned from the renegotiated twenty twenty agreement 725 00:42:10,800 --> 00:42:13,359 Speaker 1: between the MLB players and the owners is that they 726 00:42:13,360 --> 00:42:17,400 Speaker 1: did agree to maintain the drafts and keep the draft going. 727 00:42:17,520 --> 00:42:20,279 Speaker 1: So that was actually a question heading into the negotiations 728 00:42:20,280 --> 00:42:22,640 Speaker 1: as to whether there would be a draft at all, 729 00:42:23,000 --> 00:42:27,000 Speaker 1: considering that the college in the high school baseball seasons 730 00:42:27,000 --> 00:42:30,799 Speaker 1: were dramatically shortened by this coronavirus outbreak. You don't have 731 00:42:30,880 --> 00:42:33,920 Speaker 1: quite the same material to evaluate these players on that 732 00:42:33,960 --> 00:42:37,360 Speaker 1: you usually do, and especially their proximity to the draft. 733 00:42:37,440 --> 00:42:39,520 Speaker 1: You know, you like to learn about these players as 734 00:42:39,560 --> 00:42:43,960 Speaker 1: best you can as the draft approaches, and in this situation, 735 00:42:44,680 --> 00:42:47,240 Speaker 1: whether the draft is held is originally scheduled in June 736 00:42:47,719 --> 00:42:50,359 Speaker 1: or the possibility that's been mentioned about pushing it back 737 00:42:50,360 --> 00:42:53,719 Speaker 1: to July, these players will be several months removed from 738 00:42:53,800 --> 00:42:58,840 Speaker 1: playing meaningful games, and in that kind of setting between 739 00:42:58,960 --> 00:43:01,839 Speaker 1: that last game and what they'll actually be selected and 740 00:43:01,920 --> 00:43:05,799 Speaker 1: signed to these big bonuses. The draft over the last 741 00:43:05,960 --> 00:43:09,719 Speaker 1: few decades has been forty rounds long, which I think 742 00:43:09,760 --> 00:43:12,000 Speaker 1: a lot of people agreed was too long, in the 743 00:43:12,000 --> 00:43:16,320 Speaker 1: same way that the minor league baseball system was perhaps 744 00:43:16,400 --> 00:43:18,560 Speaker 1: outdated and they had more teams than they knew what 745 00:43:18,600 --> 00:43:22,120 Speaker 1: to do with. This has also been something that was 746 00:43:22,440 --> 00:43:26,239 Speaker 1: mentioned prior to all these complicated circumstances. It seemed that 747 00:43:26,280 --> 00:43:30,360 Speaker 1: there was definitely momentum heading towards shortening the MLB draft 748 00:43:30,560 --> 00:43:35,160 Speaker 1: no matter what happens. But this situation with MLB teams 749 00:43:36,160 --> 00:43:39,080 Speaker 1: lacking the kind of revenue that they usually would and 750 00:43:39,200 --> 00:43:42,560 Speaker 1: with these negotiations between the owners and the MLB players 751 00:43:42,880 --> 00:43:46,239 Speaker 1: who don't represent these prospects. These amateur prospects are not 752 00:43:46,320 --> 00:43:49,640 Speaker 1: represented by the players union, that the deal that they 753 00:43:49,680 --> 00:43:53,600 Speaker 1: reached between these two sides really screws over the amateur players, 754 00:43:53,960 --> 00:43:57,120 Speaker 1: and it hurts the teams disproportionately that are relying on 755 00:43:57,160 --> 00:44:00,040 Speaker 1: these amateur players to help them. It hurts them CA 756 00:44:00,080 --> 00:44:04,719 Speaker 1: Orlans more than it would the typical team. Last year, well, 757 00:44:04,760 --> 00:44:07,799 Speaker 1: every team has what you call a bonus pool, which 758 00:44:07,800 --> 00:44:10,480 Speaker 1: is how they allocate the different money to be spent 759 00:44:10,760 --> 00:44:16,560 Speaker 1: on amateur players. There's one internationally, but specifically with the draft. 760 00:44:16,960 --> 00:44:20,040 Speaker 1: Each draft position has a certain slot value attached to it. 761 00:44:20,120 --> 00:44:22,640 Speaker 1: Through the first ten rounds, each of those top ten 762 00:44:23,000 --> 00:44:26,359 Speaker 1: round picks have a certain slot value, and then there's 763 00:44:26,400 --> 00:44:28,720 Speaker 1: some room to spend in the later rounds as well 764 00:44:29,040 --> 00:44:32,520 Speaker 1: if a guy slides for whatever reason. There's just so 765 00:44:32,560 --> 00:44:35,759 Speaker 1: many options for how you can manage your funds. Under 766 00:44:35,800 --> 00:44:38,000 Speaker 1: the old system, when you had forty rounds to work with, 767 00:44:38,200 --> 00:44:42,239 Speaker 1: realistically not going to sign every single player and don't 768 00:44:42,239 --> 00:44:44,240 Speaker 1: necessarily have the faith in every one of those players 769 00:44:44,320 --> 00:44:47,520 Speaker 1: to be a major leaguer. But now the system is 770 00:44:47,600 --> 00:44:50,960 Speaker 1: dramatically changing in that for twenty twenty, it's going to 771 00:44:50,960 --> 00:44:54,040 Speaker 1: be shortened from forty rounds to as few as five. 772 00:44:54,480 --> 00:44:56,680 Speaker 1: The exact number of rounds haven't been set yet, but 773 00:44:57,200 --> 00:45:00,600 Speaker 1: the owners have been given the rights to limited to 774 00:45:00,640 --> 00:45:03,880 Speaker 1: as few as five rounds, and we're gonna see exactly 775 00:45:04,080 --> 00:45:06,800 Speaker 1: how that changes as we get closer to the potential 776 00:45:06,840 --> 00:45:09,560 Speaker 1: start of the season. But the bottom line is it's 777 00:45:09,560 --> 00:45:13,640 Speaker 1: gonna be a dramatically different draft. Players who aren't drafted 778 00:45:13,680 --> 00:45:16,319 Speaker 1: in those first five rounds, they have an opportunity to 779 00:45:16,360 --> 00:45:19,960 Speaker 1: sign as undrafted free agents for a maximum of twenty 780 00:45:20,040 --> 00:45:24,200 Speaker 1: thousand dollars signing bonuses. The reality is is that almost 781 00:45:24,200 --> 00:45:27,200 Speaker 1: any player that has a chance to be drafted in 782 00:45:27,239 --> 00:45:30,799 Speaker 1: these middle or later rounds that now has some uncertainty 783 00:45:30,960 --> 00:45:33,400 Speaker 1: about their the kind of bonus that they're gonna receive. 784 00:45:33,680 --> 00:45:35,920 Speaker 1: You're gonna see a lot more players who are in 785 00:45:36,000 --> 00:45:40,640 Speaker 1: high school that choosing to attend college when they ordinarily wouldn't, 786 00:45:40,840 --> 00:45:44,600 Speaker 1: or you might even see some underclassmen in college who 787 00:45:44,719 --> 00:45:48,840 Speaker 1: were draft eligible sophomores or juniors. Those players may choose 788 00:45:48,880 --> 00:45:51,080 Speaker 1: to stay in school a year longer because of the 789 00:45:51,120 --> 00:45:54,600 Speaker 1: possibility that hopefully the twenty twenty one draft will once 790 00:45:54,640 --> 00:45:58,160 Speaker 1: again have some additional rounds to it and resemble the 791 00:45:58,200 --> 00:46:02,400 Speaker 1: old system in some way, because currently this is squeezing 792 00:46:02,440 --> 00:46:06,000 Speaker 1: out literally hundreds and hundreds of players that were expected 793 00:46:06,040 --> 00:46:09,560 Speaker 1: to get drafted and now won't be In twenty twenty, 794 00:46:09,840 --> 00:46:13,799 Speaker 1: when it's limited to five rounds including compensation picks, it's 795 00:46:13,800 --> 00:46:17,600 Speaker 1: fewer than two hundred overall selections fewer than two hundred 796 00:46:17,880 --> 00:46:21,640 Speaker 1: overall picks potentially in this upcoming draft if the owners 797 00:46:21,800 --> 00:46:25,480 Speaker 1: choose to shrink it to that degree. To reiterate, the 798 00:46:25,520 --> 00:46:28,560 Speaker 1: main motivation for this is for the owners to save money. 799 00:46:28,800 --> 00:46:31,000 Speaker 1: They're worried about their revenue, so they don't want to 800 00:46:31,040 --> 00:46:33,719 Speaker 1: commit too much to these amateur players, the most of 801 00:46:33,719 --> 00:46:37,280 Speaker 1: whom frankly won't reach the major leagues. That's simply playing 802 00:46:37,280 --> 00:46:39,879 Speaker 1: the percentages, and at a time when they're worried about 803 00:46:39,880 --> 00:46:41,960 Speaker 1: their bottom lines, they don't want to be making these 804 00:46:41,960 --> 00:46:45,680 Speaker 1: commitments to drafted players at the same scale they ordinarily would. 805 00:46:45,960 --> 00:46:48,760 Speaker 1: Last year, the Marlins spent more than eighteen million dollars 806 00:46:48,800 --> 00:46:52,440 Speaker 1: all drafted players. But my understanding is that if this 807 00:46:52,520 --> 00:46:55,799 Speaker 1: draft is shortened to five rounds, the Marlins bonus pool 808 00:46:55,880 --> 00:46:59,680 Speaker 1: will only be twelve million dollars, to be very specific, 809 00:47:00,000 --> 00:47:04,120 Speaker 1: eleven million, nine hundred and seventy seven thousands. Usually the 810 00:47:04,520 --> 00:47:07,520 Speaker 1: slot value of these picks, the bonus pools overall, they 811 00:47:07,560 --> 00:47:09,920 Speaker 1: expand a little bit year to year as the league 812 00:47:09,920 --> 00:47:12,759 Speaker 1: itself continues to increase its revenue. That's not going to 813 00:47:12,800 --> 00:47:16,160 Speaker 1: be the situation this year. Instead, with the expectation that 814 00:47:16,640 --> 00:47:19,360 Speaker 1: these pick values and the bonus pools are going to 815 00:47:19,440 --> 00:47:22,480 Speaker 1: remain flat year to year, where all these picks are 816 00:47:22,600 --> 00:47:24,880 Speaker 1: earning the same amount of money that they did if 817 00:47:24,920 --> 00:47:27,920 Speaker 1: they were drafted in twenty nineteen. And for the Marlins, 818 00:47:27,960 --> 00:47:31,759 Speaker 1: doesn't mean there's a possibility that they have only six 819 00:47:31,840 --> 00:47:36,600 Speaker 1: total selections. That first round pick, the competitive balance pick, 820 00:47:36,719 --> 00:47:41,600 Speaker 1: and then ordinary picks that they would have in the second, third, fourth, 821 00:47:41,640 --> 00:47:44,520 Speaker 1: and fifth rounds. So in a situation where they're limited 822 00:47:44,560 --> 00:47:48,320 Speaker 1: to five rounds, the Marlins bonus pool shrinks by about 823 00:47:48,400 --> 00:47:51,120 Speaker 1: six million dollars and they had last year, and that 824 00:47:51,280 --> 00:47:53,319 Speaker 1: just doesn't give you the same kind of flexibility that 825 00:47:53,320 --> 00:47:57,279 Speaker 1: they had in twenty nineteen. They had the flexibility to 826 00:47:57,920 --> 00:48:01,000 Speaker 1: go over slot value at a handful of positions where 827 00:48:01,239 --> 00:48:06,040 Speaker 1: they pick guys who had some signability concerns, and they 828 00:48:06,440 --> 00:48:09,960 Speaker 1: gave those players exactly what they needed in order to 829 00:48:10,040 --> 00:48:14,480 Speaker 1: forego any eligibility and sign and turn pro and that 830 00:48:14,640 --> 00:48:17,239 Speaker 1: this just removes a lot of possibilities for them. If 831 00:48:17,239 --> 00:48:19,920 Speaker 1: you just don't have as many room rounds to pick from, 832 00:48:20,560 --> 00:48:24,719 Speaker 1: then you don't have much to as many possibilities. You 833 00:48:24,760 --> 00:48:28,279 Speaker 1: can't always just target these players that you've thought were 834 00:48:28,320 --> 00:48:32,120 Speaker 1: the perfect fit for your organization at this time. On 835 00:48:32,160 --> 00:48:34,320 Speaker 1: the bright side, there is going to be a draft 836 00:48:34,440 --> 00:48:37,440 Speaker 1: in some shape or form in twenty twenty. That is 837 00:48:37,520 --> 00:48:40,479 Speaker 1: important for the Marlins. You know how much pressure they're 838 00:48:40,520 --> 00:48:44,920 Speaker 1: on to get this rebuild done correctly, and the players 839 00:48:44,920 --> 00:48:49,319 Speaker 1: being acquired in this draft are very instrumental to the 840 00:48:49,520 --> 00:48:52,359 Speaker 1: shape of the organization moving forward. You want to get 841 00:48:52,400 --> 00:48:55,800 Speaker 1: these players into your farm system as quickly as possible, 842 00:48:56,280 --> 00:48:59,480 Speaker 1: working with them individually, and getting them in a position 843 00:48:59,520 --> 00:49:03,040 Speaker 1: to actually in real minor league games for further evaluation 844 00:49:03,600 --> 00:49:07,600 Speaker 1: about how their skill sets translate to professional baseball, and 845 00:49:07,880 --> 00:49:10,960 Speaker 1: a delay would have been really painful. That would have 846 00:49:11,000 --> 00:49:14,760 Speaker 1: made it even worse for this team because you're hoping 847 00:49:14,800 --> 00:49:18,120 Speaker 1: that these players, especially the ones drafted out of college, 848 00:49:18,400 --> 00:49:20,319 Speaker 1: are going to be ready to impact you at the 849 00:49:20,360 --> 00:49:23,520 Speaker 1: major league level in a few short years, that this 850 00:49:23,680 --> 00:49:26,200 Speaker 1: window of contention that the Marlins were hoping to open 851 00:49:26,320 --> 00:49:28,880 Speaker 1: early in this decade, whether it's twenty twenty one or 852 00:49:28,920 --> 00:49:31,560 Speaker 1: twenty twenty two, that that window is going to stay 853 00:49:31,600 --> 00:49:33,520 Speaker 1: open for a handful of years in a large part 854 00:49:33,680 --> 00:49:36,920 Speaker 1: from these players that you are drafting now, and you're 855 00:49:36,960 --> 00:49:40,160 Speaker 1: drafting them with the luxury of coming off years where 856 00:49:40,200 --> 00:49:43,280 Speaker 1: you had premium draft position. You lose these major league 857 00:49:43,280 --> 00:49:46,560 Speaker 1: games during the rebuilds or to get this preferable draft 858 00:49:46,560 --> 00:49:49,319 Speaker 1: position in order to get these large bonus pools to 859 00:49:49,560 --> 00:49:51,839 Speaker 1: maneuver with, and then you're able to get the kind 860 00:49:51,840 --> 00:49:53,960 Speaker 1: of players you want, get them through the system quickly, 861 00:49:54,360 --> 00:49:57,160 Speaker 1: and get them up in the majors at a time 862 00:49:57,360 --> 00:50:00,920 Speaker 1: where they're all very affordable relative to their production, and 863 00:50:00,960 --> 00:50:03,600 Speaker 1: you're able to put together this well rounded team that 864 00:50:03,760 --> 00:50:06,880 Speaker 1: can hopefully compete with some of the larger market teams 865 00:50:07,320 --> 00:50:11,280 Speaker 1: and give this Marlins franchise a chance that sustainable success 866 00:50:11,560 --> 00:50:15,160 Speaker 1: that they haven't really had before. So it's a positive 867 00:50:15,200 --> 00:50:17,360 Speaker 1: that there's gonna be some sort of draft in this situation, 868 00:50:18,000 --> 00:50:21,640 Speaker 1: but the shortening of it, and against so many these 869 00:50:21,680 --> 00:50:26,680 Speaker 1: other consequences of the pandemic and of the agreement that 870 00:50:26,920 --> 00:50:31,080 Speaker 1: major League Baseball has reached to adjust to the short season. 871 00:50:32,440 --> 00:50:35,920 Speaker 1: It's really painful for the Marlins, and it's going to 872 00:50:36,000 --> 00:50:37,840 Speaker 1: force them in a position where they're gonna have to 873 00:50:37,880 --> 00:50:40,319 Speaker 1: get creative and they're gonna have the bank on some 874 00:50:40,360 --> 00:50:47,640 Speaker 1: of these players to really overachieve. Thank you, as always 875 00:50:47,640 --> 00:50:50,560 Speaker 1: for tuning in some Fish Bites with me Ela Sussman. 876 00:50:51,360 --> 00:50:54,160 Speaker 1: More coverage coming up next week, the following week, the 877 00:50:54,160 --> 00:50:57,719 Speaker 1: week after that. For however long this delay lasts, we're 878 00:50:57,760 --> 00:51:00,640 Speaker 1: gonna be here for you to talk about all things Marlins. 879 00:51:00,920 --> 00:51:04,520 Speaker 1: Got some ideas already floating around about some guests we'll 880 00:51:04,560 --> 00:51:07,120 Speaker 1: be bringing onto the show, as well as co hosts 881 00:51:07,320 --> 00:51:10,799 Speaker 1: from within my own staff, and more importantly, ways for 882 00:51:10,880 --> 00:51:13,279 Speaker 1: us to collaborate with the fans. Get your questions, get 883 00:51:13,280 --> 00:51:17,360 Speaker 1: your ideas, and incorporate them into the show. Be safe 884 00:51:17,920 --> 00:51:37,280 Speaker 1: and go Fish