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Speaker 1: The Big Bets on Campus Podcast Podcast podcast.

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Speaker 2: All right, here we go spread in the court.

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Speaker 1: Ten seconds of maning just goes through up to the basket,

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Speaker 1: under the basket.

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Speaker 2: It's the true for the wind God amarracle, I shut

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Speaker 2: the water. Hit that one from the parking lot. What's

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Speaker 2: up the gener nation. Welcome to the Big Bets on

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Speaker 2: Campus Podcast. This is the College Basketball Conference Tournament Betting Preview,

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Speaker 2: Part three. I'm stucky in joining me today my fellow

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Speaker 2: BBC co host Greg Waddell Mike Calbreys. Today we will

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Speaker 2: hit the WCC, the Valley to March Madness, the SoCon

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Speaker 2: and the c AA should I so we'll probably always

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Speaker 2: call the colonial, so apologies in advance if I say colonial.

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Speaker 2: Hit these four. We got more coming on Thursday and

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Speaker 2: then Sunday and Monday. We're gonna have I think four

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Speaker 2: episodes that come out. They're gonna cover all of the

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Speaker 2: conference surnaments that start next week. So make sure you're

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Speaker 2: locked in to the feed. Subscribe on Subscribe subscribe a

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Speaker 2: five star review. They really help us out, especially at

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Speaker 2: this time of the year. Tell a friend ton on them.

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Speaker 2: You know the deal. Gentlemen, let's dive right in well,

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Speaker 2: I guess I'll ask you first because I haven't. My

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Speaker 2: favorite part about doing these is I don't no script,

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Speaker 2: no outline. I don't talk to anybody before these, so

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Speaker 2: there's no sharing of opinions. Just get your fresh take.

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Speaker 2: When we first hit record, Greg, I'll start with you.

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Speaker 2: Out of these four, kind of dictate the order, Which one,

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Speaker 2: which one or two do you feel I have the

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Speaker 2: strongest conviction about.

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Speaker 1: You know, I I don't know that any of the

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Speaker 1: four one I'm dying to bet, like, out of all

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Speaker 1: however many conferences there are, I wouldn't put any of

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Speaker 1: these in my top five.

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Speaker 2: Really knows how to keep the listeners.

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Speaker 3: Sorry, but I so I have reasoning good plays.

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Speaker 2: They're all on my card.

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Speaker 3: I'm just not gonna come on here and lie and

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Speaker 3: be like, this is the MUSS bet Conference Tournament week bet.

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Speaker 3: I would say WCC is my favorite play. We're getting

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Speaker 3: plus money on a team that I think has dominated.

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Speaker 4: Okay, Calbery, how you I'll go to Arch Madness. I

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Speaker 4: can't wait to hit a team other than Drake. Really,

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Speaker 4: I mean, the best bet to make would be Drake

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Speaker 4: to go to overtime in one of the games at

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Speaker 4: Arch madness because they've gone to what like six overtime

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Speaker 4: games in the past six weeks. But I like another

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Speaker 4: team at north of three to one in that tournament.

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Speaker 4: I think Drake is just due to finally get bit

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Speaker 4: in one of these close games. And every I mean

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Speaker 4: it's on purpose. They play really slow, it's a half

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Speaker 4: court battle. I just think that they're overdue to take

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Speaker 4: a loss at this point. So the Valley is my

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Speaker 4: favorite tournament and the pick I'm gonna be given out

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Speaker 4: in a minute.

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Speaker 2: All right, well, I asked Greg first. So let's start

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Speaker 2: with the WCC, which will take place between Thursday, March

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Speaker 2: sixth and Tuesday, March eleventh. It is a wild step

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Speaker 2: ladder format. I mean Saint Mary's and Gonzaga four byes

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Speaker 2: into the semis on Monday, San Francisco and Santa Clair

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Speaker 2: three buys into the quarters. On Sunday, Oregon State and

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Speaker 2: Washington State two buys into the third round. This is

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Speaker 2: UH if you go back the last time a one

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Speaker 2: or two seed makes sense in this format and you've

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Speaker 2: had dominant teams at the top. The last time a

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Speaker 2: one or two seed didn't win this tournament two thousand

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Speaker 2: and eight, when San Diego was a three seed and

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Speaker 2: won it, which was the last time Gonzaga or Saint

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Speaker 2: Mary's didn't. That was the only time in the past

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Speaker 2: twenty five years that a one or two seed didn't

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Speaker 2: win the WCC tournament. So you this is a decent

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Speaker 2: pace league outside of two clear exceptions in Saint Mary's,

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Speaker 2: Oregon State Loyal and Pacific. To a lesser extent, you

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Speaker 2: can based on past history, you can pretty much pencil

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Speaker 2: in Saint Mary's first Gonzaga. Gonzaga is the favorite. They're out.

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Speaker 2: They were like minus one thirty I saw now they're

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Speaker 2: like minus one fifty five. I don't see any value there.

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Speaker 2: I make them like even money when I ran my stuff.

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Speaker 2: So the question is can they finally beat Sat Mary's,

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Speaker 2: which they haven't done this year San Francisco, they're the

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Speaker 2: three seed. You know, good guard play Thomas Williams that well,

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Speaker 2: they're three point luck runout. We saw that this weekend party.

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Speaker 2: I mean their third and three point defense in February

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Speaker 2: nationally three hundred and fifty eighth in two point defense.

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Speaker 2: Teams are shooting before that Gonzaga game seventeen percent from

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Speaker 2: three in February twenty two, percent since January first. They

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Speaker 2: got an elite transition Dave, but could be had in

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Speaker 2: the half court and post and pick and roll. Defense

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Speaker 2: is kind of vulnerable. They do struggle on the glass

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Speaker 2: as well, with which wouldn't be great, particularly against Saint Mary's,

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Speaker 2: who are the rebounding kings. In games. They just want

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Speaker 2: to grind down. I you know, Oregon State is Santa

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Speaker 2: Clair is the four seed. I reluctantly took a flyer

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Speaker 2: on them at twenty to one. It's dead. I might

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Speaker 2: as well just light it on fire. They want to

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Speaker 2: play fast, but I made them like thirteen to one.

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Speaker 2: The elite rim and three offense, they have great wings.

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Speaker 2: They've been running super lucky from three, so it's all

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Speaker 2: going to become crashing down probably. They're forty five percent

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Speaker 2: from three in February. Teams are shooting just twenty eight percent.

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Speaker 2: Their defense is pretty vulnerable, especially in the post early

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Speaker 2: across the board. They're good to the glass at least,

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Speaker 2: which would help against Saint Mary's. Now, I do hate

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Speaker 2: that they get Oregon State instead of Washington State. Washington

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Speaker 2: State really struggled down the stretch. Oregon State's always tricky

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Speaker 2: and attorney setting because they'll mix up their defenses, but

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Speaker 2: their defenses haven't really been that effective this year. For

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Speaker 2: taj Is a great offensive player. They want to play

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Speaker 2: super slow, grind games down, but they weren't the same

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Speaker 2: team away from home one hundred and thirty second on

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Speaker 2: the road and league play, shooting thirty percent from three,

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Speaker 2: seventy second at home shooting over forty percent in home

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Speaker 2: league games. They're just a defensive efficiency on the road

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Speaker 2: and in league play three hundred and seventeen. So Santa

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Speaker 2: Clair I just saw some value in it. I know

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Speaker 2: they got swept by Saint Mary's. They go up a

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Speaker 2: thirty zero run in one game, but it's a team

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Speaker 2: that can get super hot from three. We've seen that recently.

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Speaker 2: Maybe they can keep it up. They did eat Gonzaga

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Speaker 2: earlier this year, so that's just a small couch change.

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Speaker 2: Bet I took on Santa Clair twenty to one for price.

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Speaker 2: I don't see anyone that can make it. I mean,

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Speaker 2: in order to get there, to get the good Zaga

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Speaker 2: in Saint Mary's, you got to, you know, win three

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Speaker 2: four games from if you're one of the seven through

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Speaker 2: eleven seeds. So I don't see anything there in a

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Speaker 2: top heavy league, but I did take a flyer in

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Speaker 2: Santa Clair. Greg you mentioned you like a team that

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Speaker 2: has dominated another. I assume you were hinting at Saint Mary's. Yeah,

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Speaker 2: it is Saint Mary's.

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Speaker 3: That's my pick here, and I'm glad you at least

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Speaker 3: mentioned Santa Clara, because if we were going to throw

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Speaker 3: out a long shot, I think that's the correct angle.

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Speaker 3: I would want somebody from the Saint Mary's side of

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Speaker 3: the draw. I think if you're trying to pick off

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Speaker 3: like an underdogs, I do think we'll see a motivated

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Speaker 3: Gonzaga here, given that they lost the regular season outright,

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Speaker 3: and it's mark few with banners, with a couple seniors

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Speaker 3: on this team that need to feel like they're going

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Speaker 3: out with something here. But the reality is this, I

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Speaker 3: think Saint Mary's is every bit as good as Gonzaga.

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Speaker 3: I know the analytics KEMPOM still has Gonzaga eighth nationally.

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Speaker 5: I think Gonzaga is one.

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Speaker 3: Of the teams and programs that has really exploited. I

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Speaker 3: don't want to call it loopholes, because look, analytics matter,

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Speaker 3: of course, we use them every day to help us.

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Speaker 3: But the flaw with the system of just trusting that blindly.

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Speaker 3: To me is that if a team is trying to

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Speaker 3: keep their starters on the floor and wing game by fifty,

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Speaker 3: they can really swing the way you look without looking

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Speaker 3: at what you've done in games that matter. Gonzaga is

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Speaker 3: not the team that beat Baylor by forty on opening

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Speaker 3: night of college basketball when they've played good opponents. I

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Speaker 3: don't really trust anybody on a Gonzaga uniform in big games.

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Speaker 3: I think that's more than fair to say about Ryan

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Speaker 3: Emhard and Graham Ike. At this point, they're one in

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Speaker 3: four in the last two seasons against Saint Mary's. Not

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Speaker 3: only did they get swept this year in the regular season,

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Speaker 3: but they were one and two against them last year.

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Speaker 3: I think ye marshalonis and what he's done at Saint Mary's,

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Speaker 3: he's the player of the year in this conference.

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Speaker 5: You get the best player with a team with a

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Speaker 5: good matchup.

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Speaker 3: Like when I think back to what happened with the

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Speaker 3: Saint Mary Zaga games this year, you just saw the

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Speaker 3: patience of Saint Mary's mentally destroying this Kenzaga team that

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Speaker 3: wants to run down and shoot with twenty seconds on

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Speaker 3: the shot clock, and they just don't have the typical

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Speaker 3: go to scorer stars.

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Speaker 5: That the best Gonzaga teams have had.

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Speaker 3: Ryan Demhart's a setup guy and a great one at that,

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Speaker 3: but it ends up in a lot of long khalief

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Speaker 3: battle jumpers really early in the shot clock, a revolving

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Speaker 3: door in the front court. So this is one of

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Speaker 3: those I know people say it's hard to beat a

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Speaker 3: team three times when it comes to conference tournaments.

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Speaker 2: I don't know that I agree with that.

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Speaker 3: I think back to in my state, Michigan, Michigan State,

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Speaker 3: about six years ago, people.

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Speaker 5: Kept saying Michigan was going to beat Cashus Winston.

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Speaker 2: Never happened.

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Speaker 3: They hung two banners who won three straight games against them.

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Speaker 3: Sometimes you have a team's number. I think that's Saint Mary's,

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Speaker 3: and I think it's disrespectful that they're plus one point

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Speaker 3: thirty against a team they've been definitively better than for

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Speaker 3: the better part of two years.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, historically, that's actually a myth if you like break

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Speaker 2: it down. I mean, there's a reason sometimes why you lose,

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Speaker 2: just exceptions injuries that uh, there's the reason sometimes that

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Speaker 2: you lose twice to a team in the regular season.

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Speaker 2: A lot of times it's a matchup issue, and we've

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Speaker 2: seen in the past this same Mary's team. We know

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Speaker 2: that they're going to control tempo in that game. We

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Speaker 2: know that they're going to grind it down to a

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Speaker 2: halt and make and Zaga very uncomfortable. Calvary's what do

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Speaker 2: you say here? Yeah, I'm also in.

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Speaker 4: The bandwagon of the Gales being disrespected. They're entering this

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Speaker 4: tournaments with the highest Kenpom ratings since twenty seventeen. That

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Speaker 4: team was built around Jock Landale and won a game

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Speaker 4: in the NCAA Tournament as well. So this isn't just

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Speaker 4: a team that's good by WCC standards. This is one

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Speaker 4: of the better teams out of this conference really in

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Speaker 4: the last ten years. And they're either going to draw

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Speaker 4: Oregon State or Santa Clair in the semis. They dominated

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Speaker 4: both in season sweeps and I've been seeing right now

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Speaker 4: they're up to plus one fifty five in some markets,

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Speaker 4: Like at the very least, I think this is a

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Speaker 4: great parlay Swedener if you want to tack it on

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Speaker 4: to another conference tournament win and keep in mind like

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Speaker 4: this Saint Mary's team, they are the third highest rated

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Speaker 4: team in HASLA Metrics from away from Home ranking So

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Speaker 4: in some of these cases, and we'll talk about it

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Speaker 4: in the other conference tournaments, a lot of these teams

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Speaker 4: just dominated on their home floor, play five hundred ball

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Speaker 4: on the road. That's obviously not the case here. They

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Speaker 4: went eleven and seven against the spread in WCC play.

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Speaker 4: They covered by close to five points per game. And

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Speaker 4: this was a conference that is the seventh rated conference

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Speaker 4: by ken Pom, the second in mid major land behind

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Speaker 4: the Mountain West Conference. So I just think the way

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Speaker 4: that they play and the fact that their games are

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Speaker 4: on late at night, I think just the whole country

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Speaker 4: is just sleeping on the gale. So I'm happy to

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Speaker 4: take him at plus one fifty five and then throw

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Speaker 4: in a flyer on San Francisco stuck. You kind of

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Speaker 4: set the table in terms of what the Dons bring

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Speaker 4: to the table. But Malik Thomas has gone for thirty

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Speaker 4: four or more in three games this year, all against

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Speaker 4: quality opponents. By the way, it wasn't just him beating

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Speaker 4: up on the little sisters of the poor. So I

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Speaker 4: think if he plays out of his mind and they

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Speaker 4: continue to bring that three point defense, twenty eight percent

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Speaker 4: opponents shooting making fewer than six threes per game, yes,

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Speaker 4: you can carve him up inside the York. You can handoffs,

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Speaker 4: pick and rolls, you can get things in the lane

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Speaker 4: on them left and right. But it's difficult to run

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Speaker 4: away from a team if you're not making three pointers.

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Speaker 4: So I think San Francisco is an interesting number at

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Speaker 4: twenty seven to one, if you can get that high.

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Speaker 4: But I still think the Gales are going to take

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Speaker 4: this one and do the repeat of the regular season title.

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Speaker 2: Just to run you through the bottom half of the conference.

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Speaker 2: For betting wise, let's start start at the bottom playing

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Speaker 2: game first round Thursday, Pacific, San Diego. Pacific famously last

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Speaker 2: year lost one hundred and two to forty three in

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Speaker 2: the first round of the conference tournament. Sadly, I think

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Speaker 2: there's only one player left. I was like, this is

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Speaker 2: gonna be They're going to be very motivate. There's only

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Speaker 2: one player on the team. There's a new coach. I

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Speaker 2: think it's like a backup center. It's basically a brand

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Speaker 2: new teams. I don't think that really matters. For what

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Speaker 2: it's worth. You mentioned away from home metrics, Pacific is

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Speaker 2: number one in the country and has the metrics away

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Speaker 2: from home metrics that that's pretty wild and you, and

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Speaker 2: San Diego didn't win a single game away from home.

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Speaker 2: The team split during the regular season, winning on each

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Speaker 2: other's home court. San Diego wants to play fast, they

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Speaker 2: want to run. Their half court offense is ugly just

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Speaker 2: inefficient mid range. They can't shoot a lick from the outside.

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Speaker 2: Just try to get offensive rebounds. But Pacific's good on

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Speaker 2: the defensive glass. They take away the mid range. The

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Speaker 2: only issue is they do turn it over to mouch,

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Speaker 2: which is basically san diego strength endeen best pat The

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Speaker 2: offense is turning teams over getting out in transition. San

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Speaker 2: Diego's three point defense has been pretty unlucky over the

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Speaker 2: past month, and Pacific has been lucky, which gives me

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Speaker 2: some concern. But neither team can shoot. I don't know.

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Speaker 2: I kind of lean Pacific there. The winner of that

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Speaker 2: game would get Loyola. Interestingly, Pacific, I don't know what

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Speaker 2: happened in this game. Pacific destroyed Loyola at Loyola in

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Speaker 2: the middle of last month. They scored like it's stats,

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Speaker 2: scoring like fifty one to twenty five in the second half,

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Speaker 2: which is something worth throating. Loyola doesn't turn it over.

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Speaker 2: Their offense is ugly. They can't rebound, their defense is

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Speaker 2: pretty good in the half court, they they're just it's

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Speaker 2: just a bunch of mid range on both ends. Their

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Speaker 2: games are just super ugly. If they beat the winner

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Speaker 2: of Pacific San Diego, they'd get Washington State. Washington State

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Speaker 2: was lost down the stretch. I don't I don't know

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Speaker 2: what happened to that team. They do good five out offense.

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Speaker 2: They want to play fast or top of top fifteen

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Speaker 2: in effective field goal percentage. The problem is they just

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Speaker 2: turn it over way too much. Their defense is also bad.

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Speaker 2: They try to press some extent pressure, but they get

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Speaker 2: destroyed on the offense of the last. But they do

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Speaker 2: match up pretty well with Loyola if that's the matchup,

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Speaker 2: because Loyola can't offensive rebound and doesn't force turnovers. You know,

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Speaker 2: they're also good at defending at the mind range. Loyola

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Speaker 2: really doesn't try to get to the rim either, which

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Speaker 2: is where Washington State is super weak. So that might

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Speaker 2: be a good matchup for Washington State. And what else.

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Speaker 2: Portland Pepperdine is the last one. That's the eight to

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Speaker 2: nine game. Portland's playing its best basketball the year. They

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Speaker 2: beat Pepperdine by twenty both meetings, they're one hundred and

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Speaker 2: sixteenth in the country since February first, per Torvik Pepperdine

295
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Speaker 2: two hundred and seventy fourth, one to eight. Over that span,

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Speaker 2: Portland was five and three. Portland's third in the MOMENTU

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Speaker 2: Metric per Hasle Metrics twenty third away from home Pepperdine

298
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Speaker 2: three to sixteenth and two eighty second and those matchups.

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Speaker 2: I also think Portland is a much better coach, so

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Speaker 2: I would lean Portland getting it done for a third

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Speaker 2: straight time. All right, let's move on to some Let's

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Speaker 2: go to some Arch madness in the Missouri Valley, one

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Speaker 2: of my favorite conference tournaments every year. This year Drake

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Speaker 2: within a seventeen and three in conference is the one seed.

305
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Speaker 2: Different kind of format this year. In the past, you

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Speaker 2: would have like just there was only there used to

307
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Speaker 2: be one game and then two that play on the

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Speaker 2: opening round on Thursday. Now it's just the top four

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Speaker 2: get buys Ondo Friday, it's Drake, Bradley, Northern Iowa, and Belmont,

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Speaker 2: and then your bottom eight teams all play in the

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Speaker 2: first round in four games. If you go back historically,

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Speaker 2: Drake is the favorite. By the way US one fifteen,

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Speaker 2: Bradley second plus three to ten U and I plus

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Speaker 2: four eighty Belmont ten to one. The four teams have

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Speaker 2: received quarters to Fridays the past twenty five tournaments. The

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Speaker 2: two seed has won the most ten, The one seeds

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Speaker 2: won at seven times, the four four times, the two

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Speaker 2: excuse me, the three two times, in the five to

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Speaker 2: two times. Dal Perezo is the only team to make

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Speaker 2: it to the final after playing in the opening round

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Speaker 2: that was in the COVID year. They're the seventh seed,

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Speaker 2: but like I said, it's a little different format this time,

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Speaker 2: so there's a little more more juice than the teams

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Speaker 2: that are playing on that Thursday, but still a disadvantage.

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Speaker 2: I personally think this league is more wide open than

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Speaker 2: maybe some do. Drake and Bradley seven to zero combined

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Speaker 2: in overtime during league play. Drake could lose or beat

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Speaker 2: to anybody just because their style. They're just so methodical.

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Speaker 2: They'd run that middle P and R with SERTs. The

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Speaker 2: biggest ward on their offense is turnovers. A lot of

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Speaker 2: them are like self induced. They just work so hard

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Speaker 2: that the no one takes no one runs offense longer

333
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Speaker 2: than them, like they'll get shot clock violations. They are

334
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Speaker 2: undersize at the rim, like their two point defense is

335
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Speaker 2: three hundreds. They try to turn you over, but if

336
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Speaker 2: you can avoid turning it over, you can score on

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Speaker 2: them at the rim. They are great rebounders, so like

338
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Speaker 2: a forced turnovers, their shot volume is usually very good

339
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Speaker 2: and they were actually better on the road this year

340
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Speaker 2: during league play. Bradley the two seed, and then I'll

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Speaker 2: get your guys thoughts there. They just run beautiful offense

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Speaker 2: in the half court, pick and roll heavy with Duke Dean.

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Speaker 2: They're jump shooters and they're hitting their jump shoot their

344
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Speaker 2: jump shots. They're dangerous, and they did a really good

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Speaker 2: job on starts in both meetings this year in really

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Speaker 2: limiting him in a season split where both teams won

347
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Speaker 2: on each other's home court. Calgaries, I'll start with you,

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Speaker 2: do you think you think Drake's vulnerable as well? Obviously

349
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Speaker 2: with the way that they play, right, we saw them

350
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Speaker 2: just go to overtime with the Missouri Say they could

351
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Speaker 2: find themselves in a game that's you know, fifty five

352
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Speaker 2: to fifty three with anybody really, Yeah.

353
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Speaker 4: As I met earlier, five overtime games for the Bulldogs

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Speaker 4: since mid December, also in terms of history of all Yeah,

355
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Speaker 4: they won every single one of them. If you look

356
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Speaker 4: back the past four years, it's been one versus two

357
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Speaker 4: in the title game of this conference tournament three of

358
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Speaker 4: those four times. So I do think it ends up

359
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Speaker 4: with the cream rising to the top more often than

360
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Speaker 4: not here, But I like Bradley at plus three ten.

361
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Speaker 4: You mentioned Duke Dean for anyone who hasn't watched him play,

362
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Speaker 4: just a pint sized playmaker. I think he's five to eight,

363
00:18:25,400 --> 00:18:28,040
Speaker 4: you know, with lifts in his shoes, but he can

364
00:18:28,119 --> 00:18:30,600
Speaker 4: make five or six threes in a game. They're fifth

365
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Speaker 4: in shooting efficiency nationally as a team, and it makes

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Speaker 4: sense because they were the preseason favorite, or at least

367
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Speaker 4: you know, some people were picking them to win it

368
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Speaker 4: because they brought so much back from a team that

369
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Speaker 4: won twenty three games last year and a game in

370
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Speaker 4: the NIT. So when you look at how well they

371
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Speaker 4: play in the half court, it shows as a team

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Speaker 4: that has a lot of experience playing together. They're twenty

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Speaker 4: fourth and a half court offensive efficiency they split with Drake,

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Speaker 4: so I'm not afraid of them in a head to

375
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Speaker 4: head matchup. And then they just dominated Northern I. It

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Speaker 4: was so you and I also dead last in the

377
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Speaker 4: Evan MEA competition metric. They were a team that I

378
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Speaker 4: think you can make an argument for a certain price

379
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Speaker 4: point in terms of the Panthers, but I like the

380
00:19:07,200 --> 00:19:10,159
Speaker 4: head to head matchup. I think it favors Bradley. So

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Speaker 4: just north of three to one, I'm on the Braves

382
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Speaker 4: in the spot and I'll throw out a quick trivia question.

383
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Speaker 4: I know you love this conference, stuck. Two teams have

384
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Speaker 4: won national championships out of the Missouri Valley.

385
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Speaker 2: Who were they? Are they currently Missouri Valley or just now?

386
00:19:25,280 --> 00:19:28,040
Speaker 4: A lot of teams have moved on, like ye, Louisville

387
00:19:28,160 --> 00:19:30,520
Speaker 4: was in this league for a time. No Craton for

388
00:19:30,560 --> 00:19:34,400
Speaker 4: a time obviously, but these are two programs that are

389
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Speaker 4: in major leagues at this point. Have moved their way

390
00:19:37,880 --> 00:19:40,040
Speaker 4: up the ladder over the years, but both won national

391
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Speaker 4: championships two a piece.

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Speaker 2: My first thought was Indiana State, but they're currently in

393
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Speaker 2: the Valley. They just played in one.

394
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Speaker 4: Right, Indiana State, well, India State Scots. They don't have

395
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Speaker 4: any national championships, but.

396
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Speaker 2: They played in one.

397
00:19:55,680 --> 00:19:59,080
Speaker 4: Well, they got to a Final four International championship with

398
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Speaker 4: Larry Bird.

399
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Speaker 2: Indiana State also made the n Title game last year?

400
00:20:03,720 --> 00:20:04,720
Speaker 2: Is it obvious?

401
00:20:04,960 --> 00:20:07,440
Speaker 4: I would say one, you're you're probably gonna nod along

402
00:20:07,480 --> 00:20:11,200
Speaker 4: with the other one. I'll throw out a hints. One

403
00:20:11,240 --> 00:20:14,520
Speaker 4: of our BBOC co hosts likes to name drop this

404
00:20:14,520 --> 00:20:15,800
Speaker 4: school as often as you can.

405
00:20:16,320 --> 00:20:19,760
Speaker 2: Ah, I'm trying to cycle through teams, and I'll give

406
00:20:19,800 --> 00:20:20,679
Speaker 2: you one last clue.

407
00:20:20,880 --> 00:20:24,080
Speaker 4: Both currently reside in the Big twelve conference.

408
00:20:24,480 --> 00:20:27,399
Speaker 2: Both are in the Big Twelve, believe it or not,

409
00:20:27,680 --> 00:20:30,640
Speaker 2: because Creighton's never won one. How come I can think

410
00:20:30,680 --> 00:20:33,359
Speaker 2: of this? Greg, Do you have any idea? What decades are

411
00:20:33,359 --> 00:20:34,080
Speaker 2: we talking about?

412
00:20:34,400 --> 00:20:38,600
Speaker 4: So for one team, nineteen fifty eight through nineteen sixty six,

413
00:20:39,359 --> 00:20:43,159
Speaker 4: nineteen forty five through nineteen fifty four, so eight and

414
00:20:43,240 --> 00:20:45,359
Speaker 4: nine year stints for these programs.

415
00:20:45,680 --> 00:20:48,280
Speaker 2: This is why I didn't know who the hell was.

416
00:20:48,320 --> 00:20:52,679
Speaker 2: It would have been in the Missouri Valley in the fifties, Like,

417
00:20:52,720 --> 00:20:56,960
Speaker 2: it's not Tulsa. Tulsa used to be in there, but

418
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Speaker 2: they're not, don't I guess Oklahoma and Oklahoma State? Oklahoma

419
00:21:02,480 --> 00:21:05,040
Speaker 2: State is correct. The other team which.

420
00:21:06,240 --> 00:21:09,160
Speaker 4: Oscar Robertson and the Cincinnati Bearcats.

421
00:21:09,640 --> 00:21:12,080
Speaker 2: Huh, they were both in the valley. They're both in

422
00:21:12,119 --> 00:21:14,440
Speaker 2: the valley. I didn't even know that Grreg give any

423
00:21:14,480 --> 00:21:15,520
Speaker 2: thoughts here, Yeah, I do.

424
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Speaker 3: I am with you guys that I don't see any

425
00:21:17,800 --> 00:21:20,399
Speaker 3: value on Drake here. Their overtime luck this year is

426
00:21:20,480 --> 00:21:24,320
Speaker 3: Jerome tang Ish. I think they probably deserve the title

427
00:21:24,359 --> 00:21:26,760
Speaker 3: of best team in this league, but it's not any

428
00:21:26,760 --> 00:21:30,000
Speaker 3: team I'm willing to put any significant belief behind right now.

429
00:21:30,160 --> 00:21:33,280
Speaker 3: I think there's value at both Bradley and the other

430
00:21:33,320 --> 00:21:35,200
Speaker 3: team that is going to have to get through Bradley.

431
00:21:35,280 --> 00:21:38,800
Speaker 3: But in Northern Iowa, I don't see much separation between

432
00:21:38,880 --> 00:21:41,520
Speaker 3: the general caliber of Bradley and Northern Iowa.

433
00:21:41,600 --> 00:21:43,080
Speaker 5: They split in the regular season.

434
00:21:43,520 --> 00:21:45,919
Speaker 3: The one thing I would point out Duke Dean, like,

435
00:21:45,960 --> 00:21:48,119
Speaker 3: that's the guy I love betting on as well. He

436
00:21:48,240 --> 00:21:51,880
Speaker 3: really struggled against Northern Iowa twice and to eye test,

437
00:21:51,920 --> 00:21:53,320
Speaker 3: to me, he kind of struggled with the size of

438
00:21:53,359 --> 00:21:53,880
Speaker 3: Northern Iowa.

439
00:21:53,920 --> 00:21:54,640
Speaker 2: They're pretty huge.

440
00:21:54,680 --> 00:21:57,120
Speaker 3: They start like six four sixty five at the guard spots,

441
00:21:57,160 --> 00:21:59,520
Speaker 3: so you know, you get Northern Iowa plus four to

442
00:21:59,560 --> 00:22:01,520
Speaker 3: seventy five is what I saw a little bit better

443
00:22:01,520 --> 00:22:04,280
Speaker 3: than Bradley. I think that game's basically a toss up.

444
00:22:04,359 --> 00:22:07,080
Speaker 3: But to me, you've got a target whichever side of

445
00:22:07,119 --> 00:22:09,160
Speaker 3: that game you believe has the advantage.

446
00:22:09,160 --> 00:22:13,320
Speaker 2: Whoever you think is the value in this conference tournament. Yeah,

447
00:22:13,400 --> 00:22:15,639
Speaker 2: Running through the rest of the teams you mentioned you

448
00:22:15,680 --> 00:22:18,520
Speaker 2: and I, Campbell Anderson are really good players, great offense,

449
00:22:18,680 --> 00:22:21,520
Speaker 2: work through the post. But they're three hundred and sixty

450
00:22:21,640 --> 00:22:26,000
Speaker 2: second you know away from home metric per Torvick's seventy

451
00:22:26,040 --> 00:22:28,000
Speaker 2: first in home games, one hundred and eighty seventh in

452
00:22:28,040 --> 00:22:31,160
Speaker 2: away games. Their pick and roll defense can be a disaster,

453
00:22:31,240 --> 00:22:33,480
Speaker 2: shaky d overall, they do take away transition. They play

454
00:22:33,560 --> 00:22:37,600
Speaker 2: really slow, which helps in this format. Illinois State the

455
00:22:37,680 --> 00:22:41,840
Speaker 2: five seed. That's why I took a flyer on I am.

456
00:22:42,000 --> 00:22:44,040
Speaker 2: I am a little where like they played Missouri State

457
00:22:44,400 --> 00:22:47,080
Speaker 2: in the first round. Missouri State's to twelve, the last seed.

458
00:22:47,160 --> 00:22:49,560
Speaker 2: But I'm a little scared of that gag because Missouri

459
00:22:49,600 --> 00:22:51,800
Speaker 2: State's playing much better of late. They've just been really

460
00:22:51,880 --> 00:22:54,520
Speaker 2: unlucky in close games zero and three and overtime. Des

461
00:22:54,560 --> 00:22:56,520
Speaker 2: White's a good player, Brady can make some shots. They

462
00:22:56,520 --> 00:23:02,280
Speaker 2: play super slow, just crash the glass relentlessly on both ends.

463
00:23:02,960 --> 00:23:06,720
Speaker 2: Hampton recently quit the team. He's like, by some analy

464
00:23:06,840 --> 00:23:09,040
Speaker 2: excise he's the most efficient player. But I don't know.

465
00:23:09,040 --> 00:23:11,439
Speaker 2: Maybe he was like a cancer or something that does

466
00:23:11,560 --> 00:23:14,240
Speaker 2: hurt on the glass though, and their depth. I'm a

467
00:23:14,280 --> 00:23:16,800
Speaker 2: little worried about that game. But I don't know. I

468
00:23:16,840 --> 00:23:18,600
Speaker 2: just took a flower of the Illinois State because Illinois

469
00:23:18,640 --> 00:23:22,960
Speaker 2: State is a high variance team. I mean their defense

470
00:23:23,240 --> 00:23:28,240
Speaker 2: stinks out loud hard. But I think that if you

471
00:23:28,280 --> 00:23:34,760
Speaker 2: look at this draw, like Belmont Illinois State, who's stopping who?

472
00:23:34,760 --> 00:23:36,800
Speaker 2: I don't know. I mean Belmont is the four seed

473
00:23:36,880 --> 00:23:39,640
Speaker 2: jump shooters. They want to play fast, great offense, horrid defense.

474
00:23:40,400 --> 00:23:41,920
Speaker 2: They don't really score at the rim, they can get

475
00:23:41,920 --> 00:23:44,359
Speaker 2: crush on the offensive glass, they don't really rebound. They're

476
00:23:44,440 --> 00:23:48,240
Speaker 2: like a three point variants team. But Illinois States a

477
00:23:48,280 --> 00:23:52,280
Speaker 2: three point bearings team. They're jump shooters, incredible half court offense,

478
00:23:52,359 --> 00:23:54,840
Speaker 2: Chase Chase Walker is a really good player, and they

479
00:23:54,880 --> 00:23:58,760
Speaker 2: just have shooters all over. They have decent depth and

480
00:23:58,840 --> 00:24:00,919
Speaker 2: per Torvik one hundred and twenty fourth at home, one

481
00:24:01,000 --> 00:24:03,679
Speaker 2: hundred and twenty fourth in away neutral games, which I

482
00:24:03,720 --> 00:24:06,720
Speaker 2: was surprised bucks I thought Illinois State always looked much

483
00:24:06,760 --> 00:24:10,320
Speaker 2: better at home. But if they're making their threes, they

484
00:24:10,359 --> 00:24:15,840
Speaker 2: can score with anybody. So yeah, I think they have

485
00:24:15,840 --> 00:24:19,600
Speaker 2: a better shot to beat Drake than Belmont, so I

486
00:24:19,640 --> 00:24:23,600
Speaker 2: took a flyer on Illinois State u S. They have

487
00:24:23,680 --> 00:24:25,840
Speaker 2: some talent. They're thirty to one. They can beat anybody

488
00:24:25,840 --> 00:24:28,480
Speaker 2: in the league, but they just don't come in great form.

489
00:24:28,560 --> 00:24:32,920
Speaker 2: And they were destroyed by Northern Iowa in both meetings.

490
00:24:33,480 --> 00:24:35,680
Speaker 2: And that's who they would play if they beat Valparaiso.

491
00:24:36,800 --> 00:24:39,520
Speaker 2: Valparaiso doesn't turn it over there, they make their free throws.

492
00:24:39,520 --> 00:24:43,119
Speaker 2: Not much else to say. They were swept by UIC

493
00:24:43,280 --> 00:24:45,760
Speaker 2: for what it's worth, all right, because one of their

494
00:24:45,760 --> 00:24:49,960
Speaker 2: starting guards one of the best names in college basketball SIU.

495
00:24:50,240 --> 00:24:52,760
Speaker 2: They play Indiana State, who crushed them in the season finale,

496
00:24:52,800 --> 00:24:55,280
Speaker 2: which is noteworthy. Then they would have to play Drake

497
00:24:56,119 --> 00:24:57,960
Speaker 2: and they would just get crushed on shot volume. And

498
00:24:57,960 --> 00:25:00,800
Speaker 2: their pick and roll defense is really bad. I say,

499
00:25:00,800 --> 00:25:02,720
Speaker 2: it doesn't really do anything well. They're like eighth and

500
00:25:02,880 --> 00:25:06,880
Speaker 2: adjusted an offensive end defensive efficiency in league play forty

501
00:25:06,920 --> 00:25:10,359
Speaker 2: two to one. No thanks. Indiana State defense is so

502
00:25:10,520 --> 00:25:12,800
Speaker 2: bad outside of rebounding, they can't defend at the rim.

503
00:25:12,880 --> 00:25:16,240
Speaker 2: They foul and don't force turnovers. Bad combo. They want

504
00:25:16,240 --> 00:25:17,919
Speaker 2: to play fast and shoot threes, but they turn it

505
00:25:17,960 --> 00:25:20,680
Speaker 2: over too much, they get no offensive rebounds. They did

506
00:25:20,680 --> 00:25:23,240
Speaker 2: take Drake to overtime, but their pick and roll defense

507
00:25:23,320 --> 00:25:27,040
Speaker 2: is really bad. And then Evansville the ten seed, all

508
00:25:27,160 --> 00:25:31,800
Speaker 2: d no. They split with Mary State, almost beat them twice,

509
00:25:31,920 --> 00:25:35,480
Speaker 2: but no depth shot Vine clowns. So I just don't

510
00:25:35,480 --> 00:25:39,040
Speaker 2: see it from anyone in the bottom half. But I

511
00:25:39,080 --> 00:25:42,280
Speaker 2: did take a flyer on Illinois State. Their offense is

512
00:25:42,280 --> 00:25:46,640
Speaker 2: incredible and if they're making their threes, they can outscore

513
00:25:46,640 --> 00:25:49,560
Speaker 2: anyone in this league. So I took a flyer with

514
00:25:49,880 --> 00:25:56,360
Speaker 2: the Red Birds. All right, let's move on to let's

515
00:25:56,400 --> 00:26:03,439
Speaker 2: hit the CIA. This tournament is an absolute mess, and

516
00:26:03,480 --> 00:26:08,640
Speaker 2: I'll tell you why. There are there have been, there are,

517
00:26:08,720 --> 00:26:11,960
Speaker 2: and there have been injuries all year with all of

518
00:26:12,000 --> 00:26:16,560
Speaker 2: these teams. You have some something's lost, guys to fixing games,

519
00:26:16,640 --> 00:26:21,000
Speaker 2: you have illnesses, you have injuries. So like figuring out

520
00:26:22,840 --> 00:26:26,320
Speaker 2: who's good, I'm convinced that I'm pretty confident. I think

521
00:26:26,359 --> 00:26:29,960
Speaker 2: many wouldgree UNC Wilmington is the best team. They're the

522
00:26:30,000 --> 00:26:35,399
Speaker 2: two seed, but plus one ninety, no thanks. I mean

523
00:26:35,400 --> 00:26:38,320
Speaker 2: they have the best offense with newbi talisand got the

524
00:26:38,359 --> 00:26:44,080
Speaker 2: one seed. They're plus three seventy, but no thanks. On

525
00:26:44,200 --> 00:26:48,800
Speaker 2: talsand I mean they want to play really slow. They're physical.

526
00:26:48,960 --> 00:26:50,960
Speaker 2: They just want to crash the glass. They don't turn

527
00:26:51,000 --> 00:26:53,960
Speaker 2: it over. A really good shot volume team, but they

528
00:26:53,960 --> 00:26:56,720
Speaker 2: want a ton of close games. They could lose to anybody.

529
00:26:57,359 --> 00:27:02,120
Speaker 2: Charleston plus three fifty is the three seed. Berzevich really

530
00:27:02,119 --> 00:27:04,280
Speaker 2: good player. They want to play fast. Their defense I

531
00:27:04,400 --> 00:27:06,800
Speaker 2: just don't trust though, and then you just have a

532
00:27:06,800 --> 00:27:09,680
Speaker 2: bunch of teams like William and Mary, Noah Colliers he

533
00:27:09,720 --> 00:27:11,320
Speaker 2: out for the year. They want to play fast. I

534
00:27:11,400 --> 00:27:13,439
Speaker 2: don't know. Campbell, they lost their point guard. They stumbled

535
00:27:13,440 --> 00:27:15,560
Speaker 2: down the stretch. They were just getting great three point

536
00:27:15,640 --> 00:27:19,399
Speaker 2: variants for a while. Modmiths the sixth seed. They're ninety

537
00:27:19,440 --> 00:27:22,560
Speaker 2: to one. They play zero defense. I mean, maybe just

538
00:27:22,560 --> 00:27:26,040
Speaker 2: bet On Bashir and Dart getting hot for a couple

539
00:27:26,080 --> 00:27:29,240
Speaker 2: of games. I don't know. Northeastern forty to one is

540
00:27:29,240 --> 00:27:31,639
Speaker 2: a seventh seed. A lot of King who's a good player,

541
00:27:31,680 --> 00:27:34,400
Speaker 2: but not a lot of upside. You know, I took

542
00:27:34,440 --> 00:27:36,320
Speaker 2: a shot on I mean when you go down the list,

543
00:27:36,320 --> 00:27:38,720
Speaker 2: like you know, the tenn seed. Ampton's actually playing really well.

544
00:27:38,760 --> 00:27:42,000
Speaker 2: They've been the number one teams in February first per Torvik,

545
00:27:42,080 --> 00:27:45,640
Speaker 2: but they've also been running pretty hot from three. Defensively,

546
00:27:45,680 --> 00:27:47,879
Speaker 2: teams are shooting just twenty five percent, but they're actually

547
00:27:47,880 --> 00:27:49,560
Speaker 2: playing pretty well, which is why the ten seeds twenty

548
00:27:49,600 --> 00:27:54,560
Speaker 2: five to one. Elon finesse team run zone on defense,

549
00:27:54,600 --> 00:27:56,400
Speaker 2: got some length, they can shoot when they're hot, They're

550
00:27:56,480 --> 00:27:59,000
Speaker 2: tough to beat, but they have injuries. Not sure how

551
00:27:59,000 --> 00:28:01,359
Speaker 2: healthy they are, and then I have no interest in

552
00:28:02,040 --> 00:28:05,080
Speaker 2: the bottom teams. For what it's worth, the format here,

553
00:28:05,160 --> 00:28:07,159
Speaker 2: the top four seeds get double buys into the quarters

554
00:28:07,160 --> 00:28:13,119
Speaker 2: on Sunday. The next six teams get single buys, and

555
00:28:13,160 --> 00:28:16,840
Speaker 2: then the playing games are Delaware, Stony Brook, Hofstra, NCA,

556
00:28:16,880 --> 00:28:19,960
Speaker 2: and t In order for any one of those four

557
00:28:20,000 --> 00:28:21,960
Speaker 2: teams to win it, they would have to win five

558
00:28:22,040 --> 00:28:25,199
Speaker 2: games in five days, which I don't see happening. You know,

559
00:28:25,280 --> 00:28:29,160
Speaker 2: I took a flyer on Drexel. I took them twenty

560
00:28:29,200 --> 00:28:33,600
Speaker 2: to one. We've seen weird things happen in this tournament before,

561
00:28:33,920 --> 00:28:35,399
Speaker 2: and I just think there's a ton of varans, Like

562
00:28:35,440 --> 00:28:37,360
Speaker 2: I don't think there's been so many injuries this year.

563
00:28:38,200 --> 00:28:41,160
Speaker 2: Elon's beat up. That's who they play to start. Then

564
00:28:41,160 --> 00:28:45,160
Speaker 2: they would play thousand thousands, kind of like Drake to me,

565
00:28:46,400 --> 00:28:51,000
Speaker 2: like they're just gonna play super close games. Drexel can

566
00:28:51,040 --> 00:28:55,479
Speaker 2: handle thousands physicality, and in the regular season, here's how

567
00:28:55,520 --> 00:28:58,760
Speaker 2: they get their games went. I don't really know what

568
00:28:58,880 --> 00:29:02,720
Speaker 2: happened in this game. I mean, thousand scored. It was

569
00:29:02,800 --> 00:29:05,320
Speaker 2: ninety three to eighty two. I can't imagine the Thousandrexel

570
00:29:05,360 --> 00:29:07,640
Speaker 2: game being like that. But thousand one ninety three eighty

571
00:29:07,680 --> 00:29:16,520
Speaker 2: two in overtime and in the second meeting at thousand,

572
00:29:17,400 --> 00:29:22,680
Speaker 2: thousand one fifty five to fifty four. That's the type

573
00:29:22,680 --> 00:29:25,920
Speaker 2: of game I expect when these two teams play. So

574
00:29:26,880 --> 00:29:28,840
Speaker 2: I look at this side of the bracket and I

575
00:29:28,840 --> 00:29:31,080
Speaker 2: don't think Elon matches up with talsand they just they

576
00:29:31,080 --> 00:29:32,920
Speaker 2: just can't really handle the Fiscotta and they're beat up.

577
00:29:33,200 --> 00:29:37,120
Speaker 2: So your first round opponent Elon is dealing with some injuries,

578
00:29:37,840 --> 00:29:42,120
Speaker 2: and then you're gonna get thousand, just a grinder of

579
00:29:42,160 --> 00:29:44,360
Speaker 2: a game, and I think they could win. And then

580
00:29:44,400 --> 00:29:48,440
Speaker 2: you're being the Semis William and Mary not fully healthy Campbell,

581
00:29:49,320 --> 00:29:51,160
Speaker 2: I don't believe, and then they lost their starting point

582
00:29:51,200 --> 00:29:53,760
Speaker 2: guard for the year. Like that's the four and five

583
00:29:53,840 --> 00:29:56,040
Speaker 2: down there. So I think there's a viable path for

584
00:29:56,120 --> 00:30:00,360
Speaker 2: Drexel to get to the championship. Now, if you at this,

585
00:30:00,920 --> 00:30:04,280
Speaker 2: unfortunately you're gonna have to watch Drexel, which is not fun.

586
00:30:05,280 --> 00:30:08,600
Speaker 2: But this team, the good thing is like they are

587
00:30:09,240 --> 00:30:11,760
Speaker 2: just grinders. They just grind the game down to author

588
00:30:11,800 --> 00:30:16,040
Speaker 2: three fifty six and adjusted tempo. They do turn it

589
00:30:16,080 --> 00:30:17,720
Speaker 2: over too much, but they're good on the glass. They

590
00:30:17,720 --> 00:30:21,160
Speaker 2: can deal with the physicality of tousand and Yeah. So

591
00:30:21,240 --> 00:30:25,720
Speaker 2: I took a flyer on Drexel twenty to one cal race.

592
00:30:25,800 --> 00:30:27,640
Speaker 2: What are you seeing in the coastal.

593
00:30:28,800 --> 00:30:31,760
Speaker 4: Yeah, just real quick on Elon. I mean, obviously Dorn

594
00:30:31,800 --> 00:30:34,520
Speaker 4: and Simpkins have been banged up. They need that perimeter

595
00:30:34,600 --> 00:30:38,000
Speaker 4: shooting to spread the floor. But I don't know if

596
00:30:38,040 --> 00:30:39,680
Speaker 4: you can get a number a little bit better than

597
00:30:39,680 --> 00:30:41,080
Speaker 4: twenty to one shop around.

598
00:30:40,880 --> 00:30:42,280
Speaker 2: You're gonnaad to have with me. You're gonna have to

599
00:30:42,280 --> 00:30:45,040
Speaker 2: head on the first eight nine games. So because you've

600
00:30:45,080 --> 00:30:46,560
Speaker 2: been in love with Elon all year.

601
00:30:46,520 --> 00:30:48,400
Speaker 4: I have been in love with Elon, and they have

602
00:30:48,520 --> 00:30:51,080
Speaker 4: burned me eight and ten in CIA play. But for

603
00:30:51,280 --> 00:30:54,000
Speaker 4: those losses by the way by one possession or in overtime,

604
00:30:54,240 --> 00:30:55,960
Speaker 4: and in the past three weeks we saw the upside.

605
00:30:55,960 --> 00:30:59,160
Speaker 4: They beat Towson. They beat UNC Greensboro, so I mean

606
00:30:59,160 --> 00:31:01,120
Speaker 4: they can still do damn on the offensive glass with

607
00:31:01,200 --> 00:31:03,720
Speaker 4: Van Coemen and Sherry and with their interior size, you

608
00:31:03,760 --> 00:31:05,320
Speaker 4: got to shoot over them or you got to shoot

609
00:31:05,320 --> 00:31:08,400
Speaker 4: from distance. A pat scary team needing to knock down

610
00:31:08,440 --> 00:31:11,520
Speaker 4: shots is not something that shouldn't still confidence. Now. Granted,

611
00:31:11,520 --> 00:31:13,280
Speaker 4: they got to get out of that first round matchup,

612
00:31:13,480 --> 00:31:15,480
Speaker 4: but I do think there's an opportunity for them to

613
00:31:15,520 --> 00:31:17,920
Speaker 4: shock the one seed here. And I mean the Tigers

614
00:31:17,920 --> 00:31:20,080
Speaker 4: just aren't a great shooting team at all, so you

615
00:31:20,120 --> 00:31:22,720
Speaker 4: know them on a neutral floor, I think let's let's

616
00:31:22,720 --> 00:31:24,160
Speaker 4: call it twenty to one twenty one. I'm going to

617
00:31:24,240 --> 00:31:26,800
Speaker 4: take a flyer there. But I like Charleston seven to

618
00:31:26,800 --> 00:31:27,200
Speaker 4: two to win.

619
00:31:27,240 --> 00:31:29,360
Speaker 2: They did. They did win their only meeting with Drexel

620
00:31:29,440 --> 00:31:33,760
Speaker 2: on the road. But do we know how healthy Elon is?

621
00:31:33,880 --> 00:31:36,680
Speaker 2: I mean, we don't Simpkins and dorn.

622
00:31:36,400 --> 00:31:39,840
Speaker 4: Man find dorn and Simpkins. I can't find an update,

623
00:31:40,040 --> 00:31:42,200
Speaker 4: So that obviously is going to be a huge.

624
00:31:41,960 --> 00:31:44,000
Speaker 2: That's part of the reason why I took you. I

625
00:31:44,000 --> 00:31:49,720
Speaker 2: don't think that it's a great matchup for Drexel, but

626
00:31:51,640 --> 00:31:55,280
Speaker 2: because Elon might not be one hundred percent and I

627
00:31:55,320 --> 00:32:00,080
Speaker 2: wanted to attack thousand. I went with Drexel, but you

628
00:32:00,280 --> 00:32:02,080
Speaker 2: definitely has upside at they're hitting their shots. But get

629
00:32:02,720 --> 00:32:05,200
Speaker 2: you You want to talk to Charleston, Yeah, I like

630
00:32:05,280 --> 00:32:07,880
Speaker 2: Charleston plus three fifty. They won this tournament the past

631
00:32:07,920 --> 00:32:10,560
Speaker 2: two years. They have the confidence to get this done.

632
00:32:10,720 --> 00:32:12,320
Speaker 2: And let's look at their top end play.

633
00:32:12,360 --> 00:32:14,520
Speaker 4: They beat taus Him by eight, they beat Saint Joe's

634
00:32:14,520 --> 00:32:16,840
Speaker 4: on the road, they beat Loyal Chicago on a neutral floor.

635
00:32:17,000 --> 00:32:19,240
Speaker 4: I think when it's all going right, they certainly have

636
00:32:19,360 --> 00:32:21,200
Speaker 4: the game to be able to win multiple games of

637
00:32:21,200 --> 00:32:23,040
Speaker 4: this tournament and cut down the nuts as the champion.

638
00:32:23,280 --> 00:32:26,360
Speaker 4: And it starts with Antay Bersavich, Like, this guy is

639
00:32:26,400 --> 00:32:29,440
Speaker 4: absolutely incredible. He had a breakout game or two at

640
00:32:29,440 --> 00:32:31,280
Speaker 4: the beginning of the season and that has been off

641
00:32:31,320 --> 00:32:33,640
Speaker 4: the national radar for those who are not familiar with him,

642
00:32:33,760 --> 00:32:36,160
Speaker 4: He's a top twenty player in terms of efficiency. He

643
00:32:36,160 --> 00:32:37,960
Speaker 4: can score anywhere on the floor. He can step out

644
00:32:37,960 --> 00:32:39,560
Speaker 4: the three point range. He's got an a ray of

645
00:32:39,600 --> 00:32:42,800
Speaker 4: post moves and when people send doubles to him and

646
00:32:42,880 --> 00:32:45,440
Speaker 4: shade their defense his way, He's a plus passer. He's

647
00:32:45,480 --> 00:32:49,000
Speaker 4: a great rebounder, salibron protector. It's almost impossible to keep

648
00:32:49,040 --> 00:32:51,360
Speaker 4: them from impacting the game one way or another. I

649
00:32:51,360 --> 00:32:52,920
Speaker 4: don't love the fact that they need to go through

650
00:32:52,960 --> 00:32:55,520
Speaker 4: you and see Wilmington, who they had a really good

651
00:32:55,520 --> 00:32:57,320
Speaker 4: game plan against him the last time they played. They

652
00:32:57,320 --> 00:32:59,600
Speaker 4: denied the post, they did send doubles his way, and

653
00:32:59,640 --> 00:33:01,560
Speaker 4: yes he got some assists, but he didn't get to

654
00:33:01,560 --> 00:33:04,239
Speaker 4: double digit shots, and I think for that reason, you know,

655
00:33:04,320 --> 00:33:07,440
Speaker 4: his ability to take over the game was diminished, and

656
00:33:07,480 --> 00:33:10,720
Speaker 4: they end up losing both to Greensboro, excuse me, to Wilmington.

657
00:33:10,880 --> 00:33:12,920
Speaker 4: So I think the Seahawks have his number a little bit.

658
00:33:12,960 --> 00:33:15,160
Speaker 4: But outside of that, when you look at having the

659
00:33:15,160 --> 00:33:17,200
Speaker 4: best player in this tournament, and then Chris Max a

660
00:33:17,240 --> 00:33:19,560
Speaker 4: phenomenal coach. He's won coach of the Year honors in

661
00:33:19,600 --> 00:33:22,880
Speaker 4: the A ten in the Big East, and this team also,

662
00:33:22,960 --> 00:33:25,320
Speaker 4: I want to point out when they speed things up,

663
00:33:25,400 --> 00:33:27,800
Speaker 4: they win games on runs. No one has a better

664
00:33:27,880 --> 00:33:30,800
Speaker 4: kill shot margin in the CIA than the Kougs. So

665
00:33:30,920 --> 00:33:33,160
Speaker 4: at seven to two, I mean I'd much rather be

666
00:33:33,280 --> 00:33:35,520
Speaker 4: Ryan with them than Tausen, the number one seed in

667
00:33:35,520 --> 00:33:37,880
Speaker 4: this tournament. I think there's value here on this number.

668
00:33:37,960 --> 00:33:39,520
Speaker 4: I think they're going to win this thing. I would

669
00:33:39,520 --> 00:33:42,560
Speaker 4: be surprised if we see an early exit or even

670
00:33:42,680 --> 00:33:45,960
Speaker 4: one down game from Bersavich at any point in this tournament.

671
00:33:46,000 --> 00:33:49,240
Speaker 2: I think he's ready to go. Yeah, I don't know.

672
00:33:49,400 --> 00:33:51,280
Speaker 2: I just I had no interest in the bottom half.

673
00:33:51,280 --> 00:33:55,440
Speaker 2: I I charlet the interesting case with Charleston. As you mentioned,

674
00:33:55,480 --> 00:33:59,200
Speaker 2: brezwis by the best player in this league. They also

675
00:33:59,320 --> 00:34:01,600
Speaker 2: did a ton of injury is all year, which is

676
00:34:02,320 --> 00:34:05,360
Speaker 2: the case with all of these teams. But they're relatively

677
00:34:05,400 --> 00:34:08,719
Speaker 2: healthy now, so they might be much better than some

678
00:34:08,800 --> 00:34:13,000
Speaker 2: of their numbers are suggesting. But they did you know,

679
00:34:13,040 --> 00:34:14,920
Speaker 2: they might have to play mom with Mamma did beat them.

680
00:34:14,920 --> 00:34:16,680
Speaker 2: Mamma just has a pair of guards that for one

681
00:34:16,719 --> 00:34:22,200
Speaker 2: game you can't get super hot. Unc Wilmington has to

682
00:34:22,200 --> 00:34:23,880
Speaker 2: play Charleston in the semis. I just don't see any

683
00:34:23,920 --> 00:34:25,319
Speaker 2: value of their number. I think they're the best team.

684
00:34:25,840 --> 00:34:29,520
Speaker 2: They also might have to play Hampton, who's red hot

685
00:34:29,600 --> 00:34:32,680
Speaker 2: right now, and Hampton beat them during the regular season,

686
00:34:32,760 --> 00:34:36,239
Speaker 2: So I avoided the bottom half. Greg, What are you

687
00:34:36,239 --> 00:34:37,240
Speaker 2: seeing here in the coastal?

688
00:34:37,920 --> 00:34:40,240
Speaker 5: I think this is a good example just of.

689
00:34:40,480 --> 00:34:44,120
Speaker 3: Sort of the available options from a betting perspective for

690
00:34:44,200 --> 00:34:45,880
Speaker 3: this tournament that all three of us are coming with

691
00:34:46,000 --> 00:34:47,000
Speaker 3: very different approaches.

692
00:34:47,040 --> 00:34:47,320
Speaker 2: Here.

693
00:34:48,160 --> 00:34:51,120
Speaker 3: It feels like a mess of a league where I

694
00:34:51,160 --> 00:34:54,440
Speaker 3: won't be surprised if any team wins it. I also

695
00:34:54,480 --> 00:34:57,799
Speaker 3: agree with you still and you'd be surprised. Not that'd

696
00:34:57,840 --> 00:35:02,160
Speaker 3: be surprising, But I'm I I don't love the team

697
00:35:02,200 --> 00:35:03,400
Speaker 3: I'm about to present.

698
00:35:03,120 --> 00:35:08,560
Speaker 2: The case for. But as I trudge again the listeners

699
00:35:08,600 --> 00:35:09,719
Speaker 2: on the edge of their seat.

700
00:35:09,640 --> 00:35:12,560
Speaker 3: It's UNC Wilmington and it's two to one, and the

701
00:35:12,640 --> 00:35:15,879
Speaker 3: value stinks. But like, I think they're the best team here,

702
00:35:15,880 --> 00:35:17,600
Speaker 3: and I think they have the draw they need to

703
00:35:17,600 --> 00:35:17,960
Speaker 3: do it.

704
00:35:18,000 --> 00:35:20,799
Speaker 5: That's my angle, right. So the point is, if you.

705
00:35:20,760 --> 00:35:23,200
Speaker 3: Want to take Stuck's advice in back twenty to one,

706
00:35:23,239 --> 00:35:26,000
Speaker 3: because that's way better value than two to one for

707
00:35:26,040 --> 00:35:28,120
Speaker 3: a team that's not definitively better than a lot of

708
00:35:28,160 --> 00:35:30,120
Speaker 3: the middle of to pack this league, I'll advise you

709
00:35:30,160 --> 00:35:32,400
Speaker 3: to listen to Stucky over listening to me on this.

710
00:35:32,880 --> 00:35:35,600
Speaker 3: But gun to my head, I think UNC Wilmington.

711
00:35:35,080 --> 00:35:36,000
Speaker 2: Will win this tournament.

712
00:35:36,400 --> 00:35:39,120
Speaker 3: You talked up Chris Mack, I agree. I think he's

713
00:35:39,160 --> 00:35:40,719
Speaker 3: a great coach and going to be a force a

714
00:35:40,760 --> 00:35:42,919
Speaker 3: few stays at Charleston long term here.

715
00:35:43,239 --> 00:35:44,279
Speaker 2: One note on Chris Mack.

716
00:35:44,320 --> 00:35:47,040
Speaker 3: Though thirteen seasons as a head coach, twelve of them

717
00:35:47,040 --> 00:35:49,800
Speaker 3: outside of the COVID year, he's never won a conference tournament.

718
00:35:50,239 --> 00:35:52,360
Speaker 2: Ever happened. I don't know that he's the.

719
00:35:52,400 --> 00:35:55,600
Speaker 3: Guy on short turnaround preparations stuff to really want to

720
00:35:55,600 --> 00:35:59,160
Speaker 3: put your faith behind. As you mentioned Calbary's UNC Wilmington's

721
00:35:59,160 --> 00:36:01,480
Speaker 3: two and O versus Arleston this year, they had an

722
00:36:01,520 --> 00:36:04,640
Speaker 3: awesome game plan against Berzevich, who I agree is phenomenal,

723
00:36:04,760 --> 00:36:07,040
Speaker 3: But like that's sort of as I was going through

724
00:36:07,040 --> 00:36:09,000
Speaker 3: this trying to figure out my case, I would love

725
00:36:09,080 --> 00:36:12,040
Speaker 3: Charleston at their value, I don't love that they have

726
00:36:12,080 --> 00:36:14,920
Speaker 3: to get UNC Wilmington in their side of the draw.

727
00:36:15,560 --> 00:36:18,400
Speaker 3: So then I start thinking, Okay, UNC Wilmington has the

728
00:36:18,480 --> 00:36:21,880
Speaker 3: right sort of path for what I want here. I

729
00:36:21,880 --> 00:36:24,640
Speaker 3: think there's some three point regression stuff that could honestly

730
00:36:24,680 --> 00:36:26,799
Speaker 3: be looming for them as well, because teams have been

731
00:36:26,840 --> 00:36:29,920
Speaker 3: on fire against Wilmington from three in all of February.

732
00:36:29,960 --> 00:36:32,960
Speaker 3: Their opponents are shooting a combined forty percent from three

733
00:36:33,080 --> 00:36:36,920
Speaker 3: against this team. That's abnormal, and they've still been winning games.

734
00:36:36,960 --> 00:36:39,480
Speaker 3: They're six and two in that stretch. But did to

735
00:36:39,600 --> 00:36:44,160
Speaker 3: third in the efficiency margin rates in that span before February.

736
00:36:44,160 --> 00:36:47,520
Speaker 3: In January December, teams were shooting just an average amount

737
00:36:47,600 --> 00:36:50,359
Speaker 3: thirty three to thirty one percent against Wilmington, and they

738
00:36:50,360 --> 00:36:52,160
Speaker 3: were clearly the best team in this league, like fifty

739
00:36:52,200 --> 00:36:55,399
Speaker 3: spots higher than everybody else. So the only last point

740
00:36:55,400 --> 00:36:57,720
Speaker 3: I would just add, sometimes there are coaches who haven't

741
00:36:57,719 --> 00:37:00,480
Speaker 3: done it yet, but you just believe in Kyos is

742
00:37:00,520 --> 00:37:01,160
Speaker 3: that guy for me.

743
00:37:01,400 --> 00:37:03,480
Speaker 2: I think he's done a phenomenal job with this program.

744
00:37:03,600 --> 00:37:05,960
Speaker 3: He's consistently finished in the top three or four in

745
00:37:06,000 --> 00:37:07,280
Speaker 3: this league for four or five.

746
00:37:07,160 --> 00:37:09,200
Speaker 5: Years, hasn't really had the breakthrough.

747
00:37:09,520 --> 00:37:10,520
Speaker 2: This is his best team.

748
00:37:11,320 --> 00:37:13,719
Speaker 3: Every possible analytics site says this is the best team

749
00:37:13,760 --> 00:37:16,680
Speaker 3: that he's had in a field. To this draw where

750
00:37:16,680 --> 00:37:19,600
Speaker 3: it just feels like everything's icky. Two to one is

751
00:37:19,640 --> 00:37:21,319
Speaker 3: not the value I want for it, But I.

752
00:37:21,239 --> 00:37:23,680
Speaker 5: Think everything lines up for Wilmington to be the pick here.

753
00:37:24,680 --> 00:37:28,360
Speaker 2: If you're not familiar, I think Wilmington wins it, but

754
00:37:29,840 --> 00:37:32,360
Speaker 2: just not betting it. So, But yeah, I actually have

755
00:37:32,440 --> 00:37:34,680
Speaker 2: that in my notes. But your the three point shooting,

756
00:37:36,000 --> 00:37:39,239
Speaker 2: especially in this league, they've definitely not They've definitely been

757
00:37:39,280 --> 00:37:43,920
Speaker 2: running pretty poorly. In that department nc A and C.

758
00:37:45,320 --> 00:37:49,360
Speaker 2: If you're not familiar, they had their two leading scores

759
00:37:50,480 --> 00:37:58,040
Speaker 2: get suspended for the various reasons related to allegedly related

760
00:37:58,040 --> 00:38:04,759
Speaker 2: to some betting stuff. But they did a They're gonna

761
00:38:04,760 --> 00:38:09,560
Speaker 2: play Hofstra, who just destroyed them, but they're down to

762
00:38:09,719 --> 00:38:13,239
Speaker 2: now let me see how many. Yeah, if you want

763
00:38:13,239 --> 00:38:16,600
Speaker 2: to bet an under and open, that might have some value.

764
00:38:17,760 --> 00:38:20,120
Speaker 2: Let's see that was Yeah, they scored one nineteen the

765
00:38:20,160 --> 00:38:23,080
Speaker 2: total close one twenty and a half first Hofstra last game.

766
00:38:24,040 --> 00:38:26,560
Speaker 2: The market's pretty much caught onto this, but I don't

767
00:38:26,719 --> 00:38:29,239
Speaker 2: not all the way yet. I think every game has

768
00:38:29,280 --> 00:38:35,200
Speaker 2: gone under for NCI ANDC since those suspensions. They only

769
00:38:35,280 --> 00:38:37,160
Speaker 2: they basically pay five guys. Now they don't have anybody.

770
00:38:37,200 --> 00:38:40,120
Speaker 2: So they played. They went from let me pull up

771
00:38:40,120 --> 00:38:44,320
Speaker 2: the numbers. They went from like since they lost those players,

772
00:38:44,320 --> 00:38:50,080
Speaker 2: their temp adjusted pace three hundred and thirty ninth in

773
00:38:50,120 --> 00:38:57,640
Speaker 2: the country since January thirty first, and before then they

774
00:38:57,680 --> 00:39:02,560
Speaker 2: were twenty fifth. They've gone from twenty fifth to three

775
00:39:02,600 --> 00:39:06,479
Speaker 2: hundred and thirtieth and adjust the tempo like they've just said,

776
00:39:06,520 --> 00:39:07,840
Speaker 2: we can't, I mean, we don't have any depth. We

777
00:39:07,880 --> 00:39:09,440
Speaker 2: lost the two leading scores We're just gonna try to

778
00:39:09,440 --> 00:39:11,360
Speaker 2: slow the game down to as much as possible. Something

779
00:39:11,400 --> 00:39:17,440
Speaker 2: worth noting. All right, let's move on to our final league,

780
00:39:17,560 --> 00:39:22,560
Speaker 2: and that's the so Con. This is a three point league.

781
00:39:22,640 --> 00:39:24,799
Speaker 2: If you like three pointers, this is the league for you.

782
00:39:24,880 --> 00:39:27,880
Speaker 2: This will take place in Asheville between March seventh and tenth.

783
00:39:28,160 --> 00:39:33,920
Speaker 2: Top six seeds receive a buye. Chattanooga is the favorite

784
00:39:34,200 --> 00:39:39,320
Speaker 2: at plus two twenty I elite motion offense. Their defense

785
00:39:39,400 --> 00:39:42,160
Speaker 2: is very questionable, though seventh in league play. Huff bonhom

786
00:39:42,239 --> 00:39:45,600
Speaker 2: great backcourt champion has provided a boost to them the

787
00:39:45,680 --> 00:39:48,640
Speaker 2: D two transfer. I love Wheeland. Their offense is just

788
00:39:48,920 --> 00:39:52,520
Speaker 2: beautiful to watch. Friend of the Show Jordan Majeski, He's

789
00:39:52,520 --> 00:39:54,719
Speaker 2: pointed this out multiple times. Chattanooga in their second meeting

790
00:39:54,719 --> 00:39:57,799
Speaker 2: with teams this year, their offensive efficiencies jumped through the roof,

791
00:39:57,880 --> 00:40:02,680
Speaker 2: So maybe that translates more here when they play some

792
00:40:02,760 --> 00:40:07,040
Speaker 2: teams a third time, they're the favorite. UNCG the two

793
00:40:07,120 --> 00:40:11,840
Speaker 2: seed plus three twenty etsu six to one is the

794
00:40:11,880 --> 00:40:17,000
Speaker 2: three seed Sanford, the four seed is four to one, Furman,

795
00:40:17,200 --> 00:40:22,240
Speaker 2: five seed plus eight fifty Wawford plus six point fifty,

796
00:40:23,760 --> 00:40:26,640
Speaker 2: and then like, I honestly think those six teams. Any

797
00:40:26,680 --> 00:40:28,799
Speaker 2: one of them can win it, and it wouldn't surprise me.

798
00:40:29,440 --> 00:40:31,800
Speaker 2: I think they all have at least a ten percent

799
00:40:31,920 --> 00:40:36,640
Speaker 2: chance of winning this league, and it might be closer

800
00:40:36,680 --> 00:40:40,000
Speaker 2: to fifteen. So any one of those seas I don't

801
00:40:40,000 --> 00:40:42,080
Speaker 2: think BMI is a shot. They don't have a point guard.

802
00:40:42,160 --> 00:40:44,120
Speaker 2: Three point variants team get crushed in the glass, turned

803
00:40:44,160 --> 00:40:46,800
Speaker 2: over too much. They start with Citadel, who they swept.

804
00:40:46,800 --> 00:40:48,799
Speaker 2: Citadel is also a three point Varrans team, but they

805
00:40:48,840 --> 00:40:52,239
Speaker 2: want to play slower. They can't shoot shot vyuan clowns.

806
00:40:52,360 --> 00:40:55,160
Speaker 2: They have one d one win on the year against Stetson.

807
00:40:55,400 --> 00:40:58,160
Speaker 2: They haven't won a game since December third. They did

808
00:40:58,239 --> 00:41:00,840
Speaker 2: go zero to three in overtime, But am I Citadel?

809
00:41:00,880 --> 00:41:04,799
Speaker 2: Who cares? Mercer? Western Carolina talk about a game that's

810
00:41:04,800 --> 00:41:08,040
Speaker 2: gonna be played enough tempo, Mercer, can't you free throws

811
00:41:08,400 --> 00:41:10,319
Speaker 2: for what it's worth? Western Carolina wants to play fast,

812
00:41:10,360 --> 00:41:11,839
Speaker 2: they don't have a point guard. Their point guard plays

813
00:41:11,880 --> 00:41:15,200
Speaker 2: so bad. I crossed out seven through ten, one through six.

814
00:41:15,960 --> 00:41:17,560
Speaker 2: You can make a case. I think for anything I could,

815
00:41:17,560 --> 00:41:20,359
Speaker 2: I could see a realistic case for any of these teams. Greg.

816
00:41:20,360 --> 00:41:21,520
Speaker 2: I'll start with you, what are you seeing in the

817
00:41:21,520 --> 00:41:24,279
Speaker 2: sookon Do you agree cross out seven through ten.

818
00:41:24,719 --> 00:41:26,680
Speaker 3: Yeah, I agree. I feel like there's six that I

819
00:41:26,719 --> 00:41:29,440
Speaker 3: would buy here. I'm gonna make a case for the

820
00:41:29,440 --> 00:41:31,880
Speaker 3: five seed, and I do like the value in this spot.

821
00:41:31,920 --> 00:41:34,319
Speaker 3: I got Furman plus seven point fifty here.

822
00:41:34,760 --> 00:41:36,600
Speaker 2: They've been the best fifty out there. I'm on board

823
00:41:36,600 --> 00:41:36,799
Speaker 2: with you.

824
00:41:37,080 --> 00:41:37,360
Speaker 5: Yeah.

825
00:41:37,440 --> 00:41:39,160
Speaker 3: They So they've been the best team in this league

826
00:41:39,160 --> 00:41:42,239
Speaker 3: since February first, better than Chattanooga per Torvik. And in

827
00:41:42,239 --> 00:41:46,080
Speaker 3: that span, Furman's just six and three Chattanooga's nine to oh.

828
00:41:46,120 --> 00:41:48,719
Speaker 3: And I mean just from a starting point, like okay,

829
00:41:48,840 --> 00:41:51,719
Speaker 3: little undervalue from what their record actually is versus how

830
00:41:51,719 --> 00:41:54,400
Speaker 3: they're actually playing. They are as Sandford in the first round.

831
00:41:54,440 --> 00:41:56,680
Speaker 3: Sanford a team that they're two and zero against already

832
00:41:56,719 --> 00:41:59,000
Speaker 3: this year. And obviously, when you're playing Bucky ball, can

833
00:41:59,040 --> 00:42:01,200
Speaker 3: be some weird shooting there games a bunch of threes

834
00:42:01,239 --> 00:42:02,600
Speaker 3: from both sides in those games.

835
00:42:02,960 --> 00:42:05,759
Speaker 5: But Ferman won one of those games when they did

836
00:42:05,800 --> 00:42:07,960
Speaker 5: not win the three point percentage battle. They shot like

837
00:42:08,000 --> 00:42:10,439
Speaker 5: twenty something percent in that game, and then they won

838
00:42:10,440 --> 00:42:11,680
Speaker 5: one where they shot the lights out.

839
00:42:11,760 --> 00:42:14,680
Speaker 3: So I think they are kind of matchup wise, the

840
00:42:14,719 --> 00:42:18,120
Speaker 3: team that can survive if Sanford gets on fire, as

841
00:42:18,440 --> 00:42:21,160
Speaker 3: they didn't necessarily need to hit fifteen threes to beat

842
00:42:21,200 --> 00:42:22,360
Speaker 3: them in one of the two games.

843
00:42:22,560 --> 00:42:22,840
Speaker 2: PJ.

844
00:42:22,960 --> 00:42:25,239
Speaker 3: Smith is a dude. I love watching that kid play.

845
00:42:25,320 --> 00:42:27,640
Speaker 3: He can take over a game any any given time.

846
00:42:28,040 --> 00:42:30,399
Speaker 3: And if you think about, okay, if Chattanooga's the quote

847
00:42:30,440 --> 00:42:33,960
Speaker 3: unquote team to beat here Furman did not farewell against

848
00:42:34,000 --> 00:42:36,960
Speaker 3: Chattanooga this year. But PJ Smith really struggled in those games.

849
00:42:37,320 --> 00:42:39,360
Speaker 3: And I don't really think there was all that much of.

850
00:42:39,360 --> 00:42:41,160
Speaker 2: A rhyme or reason for it. He's a very high

851
00:42:41,239 --> 00:42:41,799
Speaker 2: volume guy.

852
00:42:41,880 --> 00:42:44,879
Speaker 5: He was eleven for thirty four combined in those two games.

853
00:42:44,960 --> 00:42:46,720
Speaker 5: That's two of his worst games of the season.

854
00:42:47,040 --> 00:42:48,759
Speaker 3: I feel like if you just get a solid to

855
00:42:48,840 --> 00:42:51,920
Speaker 3: good PJ Smith game, like, they were not far behind

856
00:42:52,120 --> 00:42:55,799
Speaker 3: beating Chattanooga this year and Chattanooga's defense, Like talk about

857
00:42:55,840 --> 00:42:57,080
Speaker 3: this conference tournament as a whole.

858
00:42:57,360 --> 00:42:59,560
Speaker 5: You mentioned all the three point variants in the three

859
00:42:59,600 --> 00:43:02,880
Speaker 5: point teams. There are going to be multiple teams to

860
00:43:03,000 --> 00:43:07,360
Speaker 5: catch fire in this tournament from any random spot in

861
00:43:07,400 --> 00:43:09,759
Speaker 5: the tournament. You're gonna have to win a game where

862
00:43:09,800 --> 00:43:13,319
Speaker 5: you survive or do enough defensively to stop it. Chattanooga

863
00:43:13,440 --> 00:43:16,480
Speaker 5: is not good at all. Defensively, they've been horrible. They've

864
00:43:16,480 --> 00:43:19,160
Speaker 5: been one of the worst teams in this league. No

865
00:43:19,280 --> 00:43:22,120
Speaker 5: force turnovers, which I hate that combo. It's not a

866
00:43:22,120 --> 00:43:24,600
Speaker 5: great day. Seventh in the league we just mentioned there's

867
00:43:24,600 --> 00:43:29,000
Speaker 5: six clear teams, there's seventh in adjusted efficiency and league

868
00:43:29,000 --> 00:43:30,320
Speaker 5: play on defense.

869
00:43:30,040 --> 00:43:30,840
Speaker 2: It's gross.

870
00:43:30,960 --> 00:43:33,560
Speaker 3: And if it's just to win one game, I'm willing

871
00:43:33,600 --> 00:43:35,080
Speaker 3: to admit Chattanooga's the best.

872
00:43:35,080 --> 00:43:37,839
Speaker 2: But to win what are they gonna need to win three? Here? Like,

873
00:43:37,920 --> 00:43:39,880
Speaker 2: that's not it for me.

874
00:43:40,000 --> 00:43:42,480
Speaker 3: Someone's gonna catch fire against that defense and just take

875
00:43:42,520 --> 00:43:44,960
Speaker 3: them down. So I think you've got to look middle

876
00:43:45,000 --> 00:43:47,640
Speaker 3: to long shot here, and I think the best value

877
00:43:47,680 --> 00:43:50,040
Speaker 3: of that middle of the pack is Firman. Given it's

878
00:43:50,080 --> 00:43:53,319
Speaker 3: a predetermined Stanford matchup round one, I think they have

879
00:43:53,400 --> 00:43:55,239
Speaker 3: the matchup edge, and then you're just banking out a

880
00:43:55,280 --> 00:43:55,640
Speaker 3: good PJ.

881
00:43:55,719 --> 00:43:59,560
Speaker 2: Smith game against Chattanooga. Yeah, I agree with you. I

882
00:43:59,600 --> 00:44:03,520
Speaker 2: didn't say Sanford, who's been over valued all year. The

883
00:44:03,560 --> 00:44:07,920
Speaker 2: Sanford's four to one, Furman's plus a fifty, and I

884
00:44:07,920 --> 00:44:09,680
Speaker 2: actually think Verman matches up pretty well. They have an

885
00:44:09,680 --> 00:44:11,799
Speaker 2: elite room and three offense. They take away the three

886
00:44:11,840 --> 00:44:14,680
Speaker 2: on d really well, which is important to get Sanford,

887
00:44:14,680 --> 00:44:17,239
Speaker 2: and Sanford's defense is just not great if they're not

888
00:44:17,280 --> 00:44:19,200
Speaker 2: forcing turnovers. And Furman does a good job of taking

889
00:44:19,239 --> 00:44:21,799
Speaker 2: care of the ball. And as you mentioned, the best

890
00:44:21,800 --> 00:44:25,320
Speaker 2: team in the league since February first, and they swept Sanford.

891
00:44:25,440 --> 00:44:28,560
Speaker 2: I don't get this big price discrepancy between the two

892
00:44:29,160 --> 00:44:32,600
Speaker 2: so and I think Chattanooga's defense is vulnerable. So yeah,

893
00:44:32,640 --> 00:44:36,160
Speaker 2: I took a shot with Furman as well. Calbaryes, what

894
00:44:36,160 --> 00:44:36,880
Speaker 2: are you seeing here?

895
00:44:37,840 --> 00:44:40,839
Speaker 4: I am in love with East Tennessee State based on

896
00:44:41,080 --> 00:44:43,320
Speaker 4: their price and what they're bringing in here. But before

897
00:44:43,320 --> 00:44:46,280
Speaker 4: I get into the argument for the twenty twenty five bucks,

898
00:44:46,560 --> 00:44:49,479
Speaker 4: do you remember Tim Smith from East Tennessee State stuck?

899
00:44:49,560 --> 00:44:51,920
Speaker 4: This feels like a player that would be in your wheelhouse.

900
00:44:52,640 --> 00:44:56,000
Speaker 4: For those not familiar, he was this like absolute lightning bolt.

901
00:44:56,000 --> 00:44:57,640
Speaker 4: I think he was like five foot eight. He was

902
00:44:57,680 --> 00:44:59,120
Speaker 4: a point guard for them back in the day. They

903
00:44:59,120 --> 00:45:02,400
Speaker 4: almost upsetting back to back years two Verse fifteen matchup

904
00:45:02,440 --> 00:45:04,759
Speaker 4: they lost by three to Wake Forest and the next year,

905
00:45:04,760 --> 00:45:06,640
Speaker 4: I think they were thirteen or fourteen seed, they lost

906
00:45:06,640 --> 00:45:08,080
Speaker 4: by three to Cincinnati.

907
00:45:08,160 --> 00:45:09,439
Speaker 2: So they've been knocking on the door.

908
00:45:09,640 --> 00:45:12,120
Speaker 4: I'm hoping that they can go on a Cinderella run

909
00:45:12,280 --> 00:45:15,480
Speaker 4: and get the SoCon automatic bid here, and let's get

910
00:45:15,480 --> 00:45:18,080
Speaker 4: into why I think so so hot finish of the

911
00:45:18,120 --> 00:45:20,839
Speaker 4: regular season. They won their last four the third rated

912
00:45:20,840 --> 00:45:23,799
Speaker 4: team in the so Consints mid February per Torvik. They're

913
00:45:23,840 --> 00:45:26,240
Speaker 4: also one of the unluckiest teams in the entire country

914
00:45:26,280 --> 00:45:28,319
Speaker 4: per Ken pomp So in terms of what teams are

915
00:45:28,320 --> 00:45:31,239
Speaker 4: doing from the line open shots that they're hitting, they're

916
00:45:31,360 --> 00:45:34,240
Speaker 4: due potentially for things to start swinging in their direction.

917
00:45:34,640 --> 00:45:35,600
Speaker 2: But you need a.

918
00:45:35,560 --> 00:45:38,319
Speaker 4: Horse, you need somebody to tie your hit your wagon too.

919
00:45:38,600 --> 00:45:41,479
Speaker 4: In March, Kamari Peterson is that do it all point guard.

920
00:45:41,680 --> 00:45:44,279
Speaker 4: He has been absolutely electric in his last five He's

921
00:45:44,320 --> 00:45:45,960
Speaker 4: averaged in twenty five points per game.

922
00:45:46,000 --> 00:45:47,120
Speaker 2: Seven and a half a sists.

923
00:45:47,160 --> 00:45:49,640
Speaker 4: How about this, fifty five percent from three point range

924
00:45:49,640 --> 00:45:51,560
Speaker 4: in his last five games. And when you pair it

925
00:45:51,600 --> 00:45:54,480
Speaker 4: what they do defensively, they're really strong half court defense

926
00:45:54,520 --> 00:45:57,000
Speaker 4: sixty third nationally there. They don't get killed in transition,

927
00:45:57,200 --> 00:45:59,560
Speaker 4: they get after teams on the offensive glass, and when

928
00:45:59,560 --> 00:46:03,720
Speaker 4: you get down to the path, they get Wafford, UNC, Greensboro, Chattanooga.

929
00:46:03,760 --> 00:46:06,280
Speaker 4: In all likelihood those three teams they split with Wafford

930
00:46:06,280 --> 00:46:08,919
Speaker 4: in Greensboro and they kept it interesting, lost by seven

931
00:46:08,920 --> 00:46:10,120
Speaker 4: and eight to Chattanooga.

932
00:46:10,480 --> 00:46:11,040
Speaker 2: Chattanooga.

933
00:46:11,040 --> 00:46:14,600
Speaker 4: My question here we talked about, you know, their wins.

934
00:46:14,640 --> 00:46:16,520
Speaker 4: I believe they're nine to zero down the stretch. They've

935
00:46:16,560 --> 00:46:18,799
Speaker 4: been on a cruise control just one single possession game

936
00:46:18,800 --> 00:46:20,800
Speaker 4: in the past six weeks. How do they handle the

937
00:46:20,840 --> 00:46:23,040
Speaker 4: pressure if they get into a game where the final

938
00:46:23,080 --> 00:46:25,799
Speaker 4: TV timeout it's tied or one possession one way or

939
00:46:25,800 --> 00:46:26,080
Speaker 4: the other.

940
00:46:26,440 --> 00:46:27,279
Speaker 2: East Tennessee State.

941
00:46:27,320 --> 00:46:29,440
Speaker 4: I think is an interesting play here at six to one.

942
00:46:29,640 --> 00:46:32,240
Speaker 4: I think you have a player who could go nuclear

943
00:46:32,480 --> 00:46:34,440
Speaker 4: for three games, So I'm gonna go with it.

944
00:46:34,480 --> 00:46:35,080
Speaker 2: That's my pick.

945
00:46:35,200 --> 00:46:37,520
Speaker 4: I think there's a lot of value on teams outside

946
00:46:37,560 --> 00:46:38,799
Speaker 4: of Chattanooga to win this thing.

947
00:46:39,480 --> 00:46:41,839
Speaker 2: Yeah, Etsu has the best defense in the league. They'll

948
00:46:41,880 --> 00:46:45,480
Speaker 2: they'll pressure you, they can get out and transition and score.

949
00:46:45,880 --> 00:46:48,520
Speaker 2: Seymour is a good player as well. My concern is

950
00:46:48,520 --> 00:46:50,080
Speaker 2: they're just not They weren't the same team away from

951
00:46:50,080 --> 00:46:54,200
Speaker 2: home this year, which does concern me. However, you might

952
00:46:54,239 --> 00:46:57,040
Speaker 2: have some up John bugs is he is he gonna play?

953
00:46:57,800 --> 00:46:59,800
Speaker 2: He's like he had a concussion for two weeks.

954
00:47:00,560 --> 00:47:04,240
Speaker 4: Basically, everything that I've searched on it's just the news

955
00:47:04,280 --> 00:47:07,319
Speaker 4: from two weeks ago in the local beat reporters, so

956
00:47:07,320 --> 00:47:10,320
Speaker 4: there hasn't been an update. I would imagine concussion protocol

957
00:47:10,480 --> 00:47:14,360
Speaker 4: unless it's something absolutely horrific, which you rarely see in basketball.

958
00:47:14,719 --> 00:47:17,000
Speaker 4: I would imagine that he's going to be at least

959
00:47:17,360 --> 00:47:18,880
Speaker 4: given what the concussion, right.

960
00:47:19,160 --> 00:47:22,960
Speaker 2: Yeah, that's what I That's what I read. So their

961
00:47:23,000 --> 00:47:26,760
Speaker 2: defense suffers with him in there, but there are his offense,

962
00:47:27,800 --> 00:47:31,080
Speaker 2: especially in some of these matchups. His shooting could would

963
00:47:31,080 --> 00:47:35,319
Speaker 2: be a welcome edition if he can play. And yeah,

964
00:47:35,360 --> 00:47:38,040
Speaker 2: you mentioned Peterson, really good player. I mean I avoided

965
00:47:38,080 --> 00:47:40,759
Speaker 2: the bottom half. I just really couldn't figure out. I mean,

966
00:47:40,880 --> 00:47:43,160
Speaker 2: NCG will have the easiest path to the Semis because

967
00:47:43,160 --> 00:47:47,520
Speaker 2: they'll get the winner of VMI Citadel Etsu Wawford should

968
00:47:47,560 --> 00:47:52,799
Speaker 2: be an absolute war. I considered Wofford, but I can

969
00:47:52,800 --> 00:47:56,160
Speaker 2: get a better price with Furman, which is what I

970
00:47:56,280 --> 00:47:58,600
Speaker 2: decided to go with. I mean, Wafford, they're rebounding kings.

971
00:48:00,040 --> 00:48:01,239
Speaker 2: They kind of need to be to make up for

972
00:48:01,280 --> 00:48:04,600
Speaker 2: the their turnover margin deficit. They struggle to defend at

973
00:48:04,600 --> 00:48:06,400
Speaker 2: the rim, so they try to help, and so they

974
00:48:06,400 --> 00:48:07,799
Speaker 2: give up a lot of three so they could get

975
00:48:07,840 --> 00:48:10,560
Speaker 2: hurt there but Corey Trip's a good point guard Filowitch.

976
00:48:11,880 --> 00:48:15,080
Speaker 2: I think he's still shooting Rick Barry free throws. He's

977
00:48:15,120 --> 00:48:16,920
Speaker 2: a really good player. They have like runner, like a

978
00:48:16,960 --> 00:48:19,160
Speaker 2: four out offense around him. He's a good passer. They

979
00:48:19,239 --> 00:48:21,920
Speaker 2: run a lot of stuff through him. That's a big

980
00:48:22,440 --> 00:48:25,879
Speaker 2: He was shooting thirty percent from the line on high

981
00:48:25,920 --> 00:48:28,880
Speaker 2: Vine for like two years and he switched to the

982
00:48:28,960 --> 00:48:32,600
Speaker 2: Rick Barry Granny free throws. So if you want to

983
00:48:32,640 --> 00:48:37,720
Speaker 2: back him and that Electric factory for some fun, Wafford.

984
00:48:37,719 --> 00:48:41,000
Speaker 2: He's a good player. But I think any of the

985
00:48:41,040 --> 00:48:44,560
Speaker 2: top six teams could win this. But out of those,

986
00:48:44,680 --> 00:48:47,879
Speaker 2: the best price is Furman, which is who I went

987
00:48:47,920 --> 00:48:49,320
Speaker 2: with because I think they match up well with Samford.

988
00:48:49,360 --> 00:48:54,440
Speaker 2: I think chat New is vulnerable. The winner of Wafford

989
00:48:55,080 --> 00:49:00,440
Speaker 2: Etsu against UNCG would be a war to U n

990
00:49:00,480 --> 00:49:03,879
Speaker 2: CG credit drible, penetration heavy. They prevent you for getting

991
00:49:03,880 --> 00:49:05,279
Speaker 2: the rim let me you in transition. They want to

992
00:49:05,280 --> 00:49:08,960
Speaker 2: play slow Brian the gap game down. I'm just not

993
00:49:09,040 --> 00:49:12,759
Speaker 2: fully a believer in the Spartans, so you can't get

994
00:49:12,760 --> 00:49:16,280
Speaker 2: there plus three twenty. So yeah, I'm rolling with Greg

995
00:49:16,320 --> 00:49:21,480
Speaker 2: and Furman. All right, gentlemen, that'll do it. Let's I'm

996
00:49:21,480 --> 00:49:23,959
Speaker 2: gonna say the league we did four You just say

997
00:49:24,120 --> 00:49:27,560
Speaker 2: one sentence, you just say a team or one sentence

998
00:49:27,560 --> 00:49:33,960
Speaker 2: is kind of recap where you stand start WCC. I

999
00:49:34,000 --> 00:49:37,719
Speaker 2: took a flyer in Santa Clair. I hate money, Mike,

1000
00:49:38,120 --> 00:49:39,640
Speaker 2: Saint Mary's. Don't be scared away.

1001
00:49:39,680 --> 00:49:41,719
Speaker 4: They lost a Yukon two years ago, they lost a

1002
00:49:41,719 --> 00:49:43,360
Speaker 4: Grand Canyon last year in the tournament.

1003
00:49:43,600 --> 00:49:45,840
Speaker 2: They are a great team and a great program.

1004
00:49:45,840 --> 00:49:48,520
Speaker 4: They're going to dominate this thing start to finish out

1005
00:49:48,680 --> 00:49:50,319
Speaker 4: in Vegas.

1006
00:49:50,719 --> 00:49:55,160
Speaker 5: Great best team, best player against a team that's been

1007
00:49:55,200 --> 00:49:58,040
Speaker 5: owned by this exact personnel group for two years. At

1008
00:49:58,080 --> 00:50:03,360
Speaker 5: plus money, I'll take it. Saint Mary's Valley to March Madness.

1009
00:50:03,800 --> 00:50:08,160
Speaker 5: Give me a flyer in Illinois State. Incredible offense, they

1010
00:50:08,200 --> 00:50:10,759
Speaker 5: can get hot. I think the top of this league

1011
00:50:10,880 --> 00:50:13,960
Speaker 5: is more vulnerable than many fakes. Seven to zeroe overtime.

1012
00:50:14,719 --> 00:50:17,000
Speaker 5: Give me Illinois State to get hot for a couple

1013
00:50:16,960 --> 00:50:21,040
Speaker 5: of games. Mike Drake, the old Jesse Pinkman. They can't

1014
00:50:21,160 --> 00:50:22,360
Speaker 5: keep getting away with it.

1015
00:50:22,400 --> 00:50:24,400
Speaker 4: They're going to lose one of these close games, probably

1016
00:50:24,400 --> 00:50:26,960
Speaker 4: in overtime, and Bradley's going to be the beneficiariat in

1017
00:50:27,000 --> 00:50:29,200
Speaker 4: north of three to one, Greg.

1018
00:50:29,239 --> 00:50:33,160
Speaker 3: Take your pick of the non Drake decent teams here

1019
00:50:33,520 --> 00:50:35,480
Speaker 3: Northern Iowa plus four seventy five.

1020
00:50:37,200 --> 00:50:40,719
Speaker 2: So con we just mentioned Furrman for Greg and I

1021
00:50:41,080 --> 00:50:46,160
Speaker 2: and Etsu for Mike, and then finally the Coastal. Weirdly,

1022
00:50:46,440 --> 00:50:49,520
Speaker 2: so many injuries, Nick Current and pass tough to crack.

1023
00:50:50,160 --> 00:50:53,719
Speaker 2: Give me Drexel to ugly it up. Benefit from some

1024
00:50:53,719 --> 00:50:55,920
Speaker 2: of the injuries in the top half. Beat thousand fifty

1025
00:50:55,960 --> 00:51:00,800
Speaker 2: one to fifty and get to the final while making

1026
00:51:00,840 --> 00:51:04,840
Speaker 2: everyone's eyes bleed on CBS Sports Network. Along the way, Mike.

1027
00:51:05,239 --> 00:51:09,080
Speaker 4: Bust out the pronunciation guide Ae Bersovich. He's going to

1028
00:51:09,120 --> 00:51:11,759
Speaker 4: average twenty to ten in this tournament and Charlson's gonna

1029
00:51:11,760 --> 00:51:13,040
Speaker 4: win three in a row.

1030
00:51:13,520 --> 00:51:14,480
Speaker 2: Go Koog's.

1031
00:51:15,800 --> 00:51:20,800
Speaker 3: Good draw against Thurzovich himself. To Kyle Sittles time coach,

1032
00:51:20,840 --> 00:51:21,960
Speaker 3: I believe in two to one.

1033
00:51:22,239 --> 00:51:25,400
Speaker 2: All right, that'll do it for us. We will be

1034
00:51:25,520 --> 00:51:29,920
Speaker 2: back on Thursday. Tanner and I will have that episode

1035
00:51:30,360 --> 00:51:33,080
Speaker 2: cover the America East. Maybe it'll be three hour episode,

1036
00:51:33,120 --> 00:51:36,640
Speaker 2: I don't know, and the Big Sky Calabrets will have

1037
00:51:37,160 --> 00:51:41,520
Speaker 2: some thoughts on the Southland Swack and Miak. If you

1038
00:51:41,560 --> 00:51:46,680
Speaker 2: pick Howard, You're fired. Are you picking Howard? I haven't

1039
00:51:46,800 --> 00:51:48,759
Speaker 2: you know, I don't want to show my cards just yet.

1040
00:51:49,000 --> 00:51:51,080
Speaker 2: I am. I have a feeling you're gonna pick Howard

1041
00:51:51,080 --> 00:51:55,600
Speaker 2: and I'm gonna be upset, all right, and then we

1042
00:51:55,640 --> 00:51:58,719
Speaker 2: will be back on Sunday. I'll be doing three episodes

1043
00:51:59,080 --> 00:52:02,800
Speaker 2: covering fourteen conference tournaments, one with each of the guys

1044
00:52:02,800 --> 00:52:05,160
Speaker 2: from three Man leave. It's one of the longest days

1045
00:52:05,160 --> 00:52:08,560
Speaker 2: of the year for me, talking for like five hours

1046
00:52:08,600 --> 00:52:12,680
Speaker 2: Saturday night. Gotta get ready for fourteen conference tournaments, just

1047
00:52:12,719 --> 00:52:16,120
Speaker 2: fully prepared my notes. And then Monday, we'll have another

1048
00:52:16,120 --> 00:52:22,319
Speaker 2: episode covering the rest with myself, Greg and Mike, and

1049
00:52:22,360 --> 00:52:26,399
Speaker 2: that'll cover every single conference tournament. Before you know it,

1050
00:52:26,719 --> 00:52:29,520
Speaker 2: we'll have our bracket and then we'll bring you tons

1051
00:52:29,560 --> 00:52:33,879
Speaker 2: of content throughout for March Madness, the true March Madness

1052
00:52:33,880 --> 00:52:37,560
Speaker 2: in the NCAA tournament. So thanks for tuning in, Thanks

1053
00:52:37,560 --> 00:52:40,080
Speaker 2: to Greg and Mike for joining me, Thanks to our

1054
00:52:40,080 --> 00:52:41,920
Speaker 2: producer David on the back end. Most sportingly, thanks to

1055
00:52:41,920 --> 00:52:44,680
Speaker 2: all of you for tuning in. Enjoy the madness. We're

1056
00:52:44,680 --> 00:52:47,080
Speaker 2: almost to the point we're gonna have games all day long.

1057
00:52:47,480 --> 00:52:49,040
Speaker 2: It's a beautiful time of the year. Good luck on

1058
00:52:49,080 --> 00:52:49,279
Speaker 2: all of you.

1059
00:52:49,360 --> 00:53:06,840
Speaker 6: Wagers we'll see you on Thursday night. Cheers. Action Network

1060
00:53:06,920 --> 00:53:11,000
Speaker 6: reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or someone you

1061
00:53:11,080 --> 00:53:14,240
Speaker 6: care about has a gambling problem, help is available twenty

1062
00:53:14,280 --> 00:53:16,480
Speaker 6: four to seven at one eight hundred Gambler