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Speaker 1: Welcome in everybody to Betting Pros.

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Speaker 2: It's time to place your bets and this meet joeyp

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Speaker 2: Joep's APA and this is BP NFL with me as

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Speaker 2: always the man behind the stats, Sam Hope. We're here

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Speaker 2: to help you take a look at the lines they're

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Speaker 2: gonna move in week nine. I'll look into the futures

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Speaker 2: market too, because that MVP race is starting to look

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Speaker 2: a little different at the halfway point. Lots of interesting

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Speaker 2: movement there and of course the stats that you need

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Speaker 2: to know to place the best bets you possibly can

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Speaker 2: before we get after it. Just a quick reminder too,

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Speaker 2: we're giving away free stuff assigned Michael Strahan jersey can

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Speaker 2: the signed Michael Strahan jersey courtesy of our friends at

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Speaker 2: Pristine Auction dot com, all you need to do is

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Speaker 2: and guess what, we'll be announcing the winner right here

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Speaker 2: notifications so you can be learned when new episodes are

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Speaker 2: up here on the YouTube channel and you can claim

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Speaker 2: your prize. Sam, we just jump right into it here.

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Speaker 2: A crazy week of football. More injuries is always to assess,

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Speaker 2: and the first one here has to do with the

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Speaker 2: Packers game because Jordan Love status up in the air.

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Speaker 2: They've got a bye week looming after that too, which

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Speaker 2: kind of seems like it would be smart just to

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Speaker 2: hold back Jordan Love. But it is such a huge

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Speaker 2: Indivision game here. We talked about this yesterday on the

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Speaker 2: look Ahead show. Andrew and I had a lot of

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Speaker 2: feelings on this, and I was very confident here with Lions.

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Speaker 2: In fact, the Lions were a team I want to

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Speaker 2: jump on early before we got really strong feelings about

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Speaker 2: what Love's status was going to be. So I was

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Speaker 2: jumping all over that line. But where are you when

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Speaker 2: it comes to Love and this big game here between

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Speaker 2: the Lions and the Packers.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, so this this game opened with the Packers is

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Speaker 3: three and a half point underdog, is, it's still three

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Speaker 3: and a half in most places, some threes that are

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Speaker 3: heavily juiced towards Detroit. Obviously, like you mentioned Jordan Love's status,

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Speaker 3: the big question mark has strained groined, so fortunately not

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Speaker 3: a long term issue for him. Sounds like he will

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Speaker 3: be doing some treatment throughout the week, so I don't

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Speaker 3: think that his status is going to be determined until

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Speaker 3: later in the week. But I do think that the

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Speaker 3: current line with the Packers is three and a half

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Speaker 3: point underdogs indicates that the market thinks Love is not

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Speaker 3: going to play. I think this would be closer to

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Speaker 3: a pick them if Love was playing, because this is

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Speaker 3: at lambeau Field in Green Bay. And you know, it's

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Speaker 3: an interesting scenario because we usually see money come in

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Speaker 3: on backup quarter excuse me, backup quarterbacks. But I'm not

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Speaker 3: sure we'll see that because we've seen Malik Willis play

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Speaker 3: for the Packers several times this year already. I also

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Speaker 3: think that the line will more accurately represent his actual value.

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Speaker 3: You know, whereas the first game he was playing, it

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Speaker 3: was probably a six to a point swing from Love

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Speaker 3: down to Willis. Now it's probably closer to three or

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Speaker 3: four points, just based on how he's played, how well

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Speaker 3: Matt Lafler calls the offense. So I don't know that

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Speaker 3: the market moves much if Jordan Love is deemed out.

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Speaker 3: I think the really big port part is is if

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Speaker 3: he's deemed in, this definitely crosses three public gets Packers

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Speaker 3: to you know, plus one and a half or something

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Speaker 3: like that.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, I said, I would be very surprised.

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Speaker 2: I know it's such a huge division game. I know

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Speaker 2: it matters so much, but at the same time, so

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Speaker 2: does the rest of the season. You still got almost

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Speaker 2: half a season left the football to play.

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Speaker 1: Now.

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Speaker 2: The good news is if you're the Packers right after

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Speaker 2: that first game where Jordan Love got hurt, you won

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Speaker 2: both games. You were facing the colts of the Titans,

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Speaker 2: but you did win both games with the league willis,

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Speaker 2: so I think you can be competitive, you know, at home.

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Speaker 1: But I don't know.

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Speaker 2: Man, I see already that one potentially moving to four

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Speaker 2: and a half easily, if not more, if Love is

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Speaker 2: deemed out of that game. I want to get to

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Speaker 2: the Panthers and Saints, a game that maybe people aren't

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Speaker 2: super excited for another quarterback. Potentially in terms of injury,

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Speaker 2: we have to worry about, But this one looks like

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Speaker 2: a more positive situation. Derek Carr was throwing last week,

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Speaker 2: that's a positive sign. Now we're hoping that we can

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Speaker 2: get him back this week. It feels like that's the

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Speaker 2: way things are moving. And if so, how does that

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Speaker 2: move the needle with the line, and how do we

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Speaker 2: account for what we saw out of Bryce Young who

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Speaker 2: took over last week after Andy Dalton and his family

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Speaker 2: had that unfortunate accident situation.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, so this this game opened with the Saints is

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Speaker 3: six or six and a half point favorites, depending on

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Speaker 3: where you look. It's now out to Saints as seven

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Speaker 3: point favorites in most places. To you to your point,

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Speaker 3: Derek Carr, it sounds like there's probably as good a

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Speaker 3: chance of him playing as there has been in any

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Speaker 3: week since his injury. So I think again, this line

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Speaker 3: certainly bakes in that that car is going to play.

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Speaker 3: The other side of this is is who the Panthers

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Speaker 3: are going to start at quarterback. You know, we got

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Speaker 3: that one week flash from Andy Dalton against the Raiders

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Speaker 3: back in Week three, I think it was, But since

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Speaker 3: then he's sort of shown he's not you know, the

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Speaker 3: true cream of the crop, but is certainly an upgrade

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Speaker 3: over Bryce Young, So who starts on that side of

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Speaker 3: the ball certainly changes things as well. We don't have,

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Speaker 3: again a clear indication right now of what their status are.

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Speaker 3: My lean is that it would be Derek Carr and

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Speaker 3: Bryce Young, and I think that's again currently reflected in

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Speaker 3: the line. It's also worth noting that there are a

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Speaker 3: lot of rumors right now that Deontay Johnson is going

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Speaker 3: to get traded from the Panthers. I don't think he

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Speaker 3: plays in this game. You know, him as a loan

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Speaker 3: wide receiver is not going to move the needle a

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Speaker 3: ton for the main line, you know. But if he

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Speaker 3: doesn't get traded by the end of this week, I

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Speaker 3: don't think he plays because I don't think the Panthers

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Speaker 3: want to risk getting him injured, you know, similar to

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Speaker 3: like the Jagson and Christian Kirk, who was another excuse

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Speaker 3: me rumored wide receiver to be potentially on the move.

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Speaker 3: So I don't expect Deontay Johnson to be in this game,

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Speaker 3: just more of an impact from like a player prompt

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Speaker 3: market perspective for sure.

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Speaker 2: Also looking out of that schedule, if they lose against

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Speaker 2: New Orleans, this week, they get the Giants next week,

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Speaker 2: you can argue it's a winnable game the way the

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Speaker 2: Giants have played most of the year.

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Speaker 1: Then they have to buye.

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Speaker 2: Then after that checked out this Carolina Panther schedule. They

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Speaker 2: have Kansas City, Tampa, Philly, Dallas, Arizona, Tampa again, and

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Speaker 2: Atlanta again. I think the wind total might stay whatever

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Speaker 2: it is. I don't know if you're getting what the

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Speaker 2: market says right now in the wind total? Is it

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Speaker 2: three and a half four? I don't know what it is,

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Speaker 2: but maybe maybe we just kind of go with the

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Speaker 2: under on whatever it is. I don't see where there's

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Speaker 2: a w there in any of those games, do you.

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Speaker 3: I don't.

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Speaker 1: I mean.

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Speaker 3: It's they're not fielding a real defense right now. I

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Speaker 3: mean they I think I said that last week too,

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Speaker 3: Like they're they're letting up so many points. Their offense

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Speaker 3: can can barely move the ball. Their two scores this

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Speaker 3: past week against Denver were on a short field where

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Speaker 3: they started around midfield because of a fumble. Their second

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Speaker 3: one just incomplete garbage time. So like, I don't, I

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Speaker 3: don't see how they have a chance to win. If

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Speaker 3: if they are gonna win, it's gonna be I think

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Speaker 3: with Andy Dalton, but yeah, it's dire Straits, Carol dires Straits.

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Speaker 2: Indeed, they might have a shot at a win here

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Speaker 2: the next two weeks after that. I think that ship

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Speaker 2: might have say, all, I'm gonna go see what that

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Speaker 2: number is actually. New England at Tennessee this week, Drake

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Speaker 2: May in concussion protocol typically speaking, that means a missed week.

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Speaker 2: So you're probably gonna get Jacoby Brissett in this game.

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Speaker 1: Right now, you're.

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Speaker 2: Getting Tennessee minus three at home. New England plus three

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Speaker 2: and a half come off a huge win against the

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Speaker 2: New York Jets. I mean, I know it's only the Jets,

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Speaker 2: but it's still a big win for them at home

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Speaker 2: after being called out by their head coach that the

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Speaker 2: defense was soft and into the division rival game.

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Speaker 1: So do we get a letdown here?

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Speaker 2: Do we have any clarity too, in the terms of

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Speaker 2: the Tennessee Titans what they do a quarterback. They continue

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Speaker 2: to struggle offensively this year, So how much in terms

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Speaker 2: of the quarterback situation here could this needle move depending

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Speaker 2: on Rudolph, depending on May and come of these variables

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Speaker 2: between the three and the three and a half market

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Speaker 2: we currently see it at.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, like you mentioned Drake May in concussion protocol, I

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Speaker 3: think you know Marvin Harrison Junior the previous week was

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Speaker 3: like the first player in at least a while that

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Speaker 3: I can remember playing in a game the week following

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Speaker 3: suffering a concussion. So would I would imagine again with

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Speaker 3: it being the franchise for the Patriots, they're completely out

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Speaker 3: of the race at this point that Drake Made does

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Speaker 3: not play. If he does, though, he is the quarterback

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Speaker 3: that moves the needle the most for me. He's shown

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Speaker 3: some elusiveness, had a nice scramble for a touchdown against

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Speaker 3: the Jets this past Sunday. Certainly raises the ceiling for

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Speaker 3: this Patriots offense. Jacoby Brissette can still keep the floor

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Speaker 3: for the Patriots offense at a decent level, but again

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Speaker 3: does not have the same ceiling as Drake May. On

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Speaker 3: the Titan side, there hasn't been a ton of news

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Speaker 3: as to whether Will Levis is healthy or whether it's

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Speaker 3: going to be Mason Rudolph. But these two are are

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Speaker 3: pretty similar to me, both mistake prone, just not great

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Speaker 3: quarterbacks I think equally terrible at this point. So again,

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Speaker 3: the big news to pay attention to is the new

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Speaker 3: England quarterback situation.

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Speaker 2: By the way, just to update everybody, the number was

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Speaker 2: three and a half minus one forty in most markets

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Speaker 2: for the Carolina Panthers three and a half over plus

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Speaker 2: one ten. I just bet the under while Sam was

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Speaker 2: giving you more stats there, so been along with me.

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Speaker 2: Follow me betting last show three for three on the

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Speaker 2: Monday night Football Bets too this week. Also, speaking of

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Speaker 2: these lines, don't forget. When you download the app, you

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Speaker 2: can set those line alerts, so if you're waiting for

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Speaker 2: a line to move in a certain direction, you can

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Speaker 2: tail it and that's very important again. Download the Betting

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Speaker 2: Pros app wherever you get your apps iOS. You can

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Speaker 2: get it over on the Android Store too, and we've

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Speaker 2: got more stuff there too, including the Betting Pro Systems too.

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Speaker 2: Of the Systems tool is designed to help you find

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Speaker 2: winning strategies to make smarter bets. You got real time data,

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Speaker 2: expert analysis, and you can do it by type of sport.

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Speaker 2: You can get it by bet type. All sorts of

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Speaker 2: different systems are available. Sam's worked on a bunch of

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Speaker 2: them too, so you can track the performance of different

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Speaker 2: betting systems over time and optimize your bets to increase

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Speaker 2: your chances of success. Download that BP app today and

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Speaker 2: bring your betting strategy to the next level. All right,

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Speaker 2: let's get to the futures market here, because this is

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Speaker 2: the one that I really wanted to talk. Sam and

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Speaker 2: I were musing yesterday, what do you want to talk

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Speaker 2: about in the futures market, and immediately I said MVP

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Speaker 2: because if you look at most markets right now, Josh

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Speaker 2: Allen has leapt forward. Right now, he's got Amari Cooper,

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Speaker 2: so he's got that one big piece. Lamar with that loss,

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Speaker 2: moves back again into the number two spots. So you

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Speaker 2: got Josh Allen at two seventy, Lamar at plus three seventy.

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Speaker 2: Patrick Mahomes whose stats certainly don't help him, but the

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Speaker 2: one stat that means the mostest wins and he keeps

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Speaker 2: finding ways to win games. He's a plus five hundred.

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Speaker 2: All of a sudden, Jared Goff has gone from a

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Speaker 2: double digit guy to plus six hundred. Jaden Daniels the

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Speaker 2: new one to talk about, plus nine hundred. So everyone's

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Speaker 2: got these good feelings here about Daniels and kind of

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Speaker 2: like CJ. Stroud last year, Sam, this is they feel

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Speaker 2: a lot like the Texans of twenty twenty three. Like that,

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Speaker 2: that's what the commanders feel like. And that did propel CJ.

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Speaker 2: Stroud into that top three for this award for a

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Speaker 2: little bit of time. So there was a lot of

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Speaker 2: that discussion there. I think he ultimately falls short. But

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Speaker 2: what do you make of this halfway point, which is

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Speaker 2: a really good time to start betting this award? Is

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Speaker 2: there fatigue with a Lamar Jackson market after all these

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Speaker 2: MVPs that he's won him and Mahomes? Are they looking

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Speaker 2: for an Allan or a Gough or even a Daniels

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Speaker 2: now the media.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean this is again very narrative driven award.

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Speaker 3: I mean, we see this market shifting odds so much

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Speaker 3: week to week, and a lot of it might honestly

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Speaker 3: come down to how these quarterbacks play in the last

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Speaker 3: four to five weeks of the season. We saw last

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Speaker 3: year there was a ton of movements week to week

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Speaker 3: from weeks like twelve to fifteen, and then Lamar kind

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Speaker 3: of captured in those final couple weeks. But it's interesting,

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Speaker 3: So I'm going to talk about these each of these

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Speaker 3: guys a little bit. So Lamar and Alan, I think

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Speaker 3: if it's the two of those at the end of

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Speaker 3: the season, I think they lean Alan just from like

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Speaker 3: a career achievement award perspective. You know, Lamar's loss this

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Speaker 3: past week is honestly the biggest ding against him. I

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Speaker 3: think Daniels again, if he's in that mix, they potentially

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Speaker 3: go with one of these veterans and then just say, hey,

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Speaker 3: we're gonna give you Offensive Rookie of the Year. You'll

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Speaker 3: have plenty of other chances to win MVP. Jared Goff.

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Speaker 3: I don't know if he will ever move the needle

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Speaker 3: because he's got Ben Johnson and just an incredible offensive

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Speaker 3: scheme surrounding him to put like eighty five yards in

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Speaker 3: their their blowout win this past week. The one guy

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Speaker 3: who I think is probably worth a bet. He was

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Speaker 3: I think twenty to one when I pulled the odds yesterday.

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Speaker 3: So forgive me if those lines have moved, But for me,

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Speaker 3: it's Jalen Hurts.

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Speaker 1: If you look, I was gonna bring him up too.

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Speaker 1: That's interesting you said that. Go ahead. I want to

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Speaker 1: hear more about this.

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Speaker 3: So if you look at their remaining center. This is

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Speaker 3: from Adam Levittan. The teams that they play and their

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Speaker 3: yards per play allowed. Jacksonville thirty first, Dallas thirtieth, Washington

281
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Speaker 3: twenty third, they played them twice, Rams twenty six, Ravens

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Speaker 3: twenty fifth, Panthers twenty seventh, they played Pittsburgh who was seventh,

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Speaker 3: and then Dallas again thirtieth, So there is a lot

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Speaker 3: of room for him to accrue a lot of those

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Speaker 3: counting stats. If you look at the Eagles as a team, again,

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Speaker 3: a big part of the MVP is, you know, quarterback wins,

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Speaker 3: and there is a path for the Eagles to earn

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Speaker 3: the number one seed. It's gonna possibly come down in

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Speaker 3: the NFC to them or Washington or you know, probably

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Speaker 3: a team in the NFC North. But if you look

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Speaker 3: at the other teams that are potentially competing for this

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Speaker 3: number one seed and their strength of schedule the rest

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Speaker 3: of the season, the Lions have the fifth toughest, Packers

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Speaker 3: third forty nine or seventh, The Vikings are at eighteenth,

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Speaker 3: the Falcons are at thirtieth, So there's a chance the

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Speaker 3: Falcons squeeze into the one seed, but I don't think

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Speaker 3: Kirk Cousins gets the award. And then it's the Commanders

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Speaker 3: at twenty third. Egles at twenty eighth. Like I said,

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Speaker 3: this could really come down to the Commanders versus the

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Speaker 3: Eagles in the NFC East, with that team potentially getting

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Speaker 3: the one seed. And again, the Eagles and Commanders play

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Speaker 3: each other on Thursday Night football Week eleven in a

303
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Speaker 3: couple of weeks here, we're probably going to see the

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Speaker 3: winner of that game flip to be you know, favored

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Speaker 3: more more heavily than the other quarterback that loses. So

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Speaker 3: it's really a bet on how well do the Eagles

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Speaker 3: do as a team. And I just think again, this

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Speaker 3: offense was a little bit slow to start. They're getting

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Speaker 3: their healthy pieces back, Like I don't know where Dallas

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Speaker 3: Scott is that in terms of his health, but he'll

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Speaker 3: eventually come back. So I think again, for as far

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Speaker 3: as long shots go, you know that Week sixteen game

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Speaker 3: against the Commanders that that could potentially decide whether or

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Speaker 3: not Hurts has a chance to win it. So I

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Speaker 3: really like Hurts. I'm holding a preseason ticket on him

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Speaker 3: to win the MVP, but I think he's got the

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Speaker 3: best chance to leap from what is it, outside the

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Speaker 3: top basically outside the top five into the top five

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Speaker 3: at this point, all.

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Speaker 2: Right, interesting for me because I have the narrative for

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Speaker 2: Josh Allen real quick, and I'm going to tell you

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Speaker 2: why I'm looking at you. It might come to the

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Speaker 2: last four weeks of the season. So he's got a

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Speaker 2: big game against Detroit. That's gonna be the toughest one, right,

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Speaker 2: But if you look at after the bye week twelve,

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Speaker 2: they've got San Francisco, I think a winnable game considering

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Speaker 2: the way San France play, and they'd get them in Buffalo.

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Speaker 2: Let's not pretend like that doesn't make a difference. Then

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Speaker 2: they play the Rams, who again might be more competitive.

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Speaker 2: Then you've got New England Jets New England.

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Speaker 1: That is their last three games.

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Speaker 2: And if you're talking about that setup for well, whoever

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Speaker 2: performs the best there, I mean, New England's not gonna

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Speaker 2: be relevant by that time, and the Jets are certainly

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Speaker 2: a team in disarray already. So I think you are

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Speaker 2: in a spot there where Josh Allen could potentially really

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Speaker 2: run the table towards the end there. The Detroit game

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Speaker 2: is the toughest one, and if they should beat the Lions,

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Speaker 2: that is one thing I will say. Now it's in Detroit,

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Speaker 2: so big difference. But if you can go in there

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Speaker 2: and beat the Lions that all of a sudden, I

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Speaker 2: think that would be the game in the moment, because

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Speaker 2: I think everybody, you're right, needs a moment we want

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Speaker 2: to anoint these guys and it's a media award. That

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Speaker 2: would be the moment where you go, oh wow, and

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Speaker 2: that market will draft could just considerably move towards Josh

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Speaker 2: Allen when you consider what remains after that, I think

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Speaker 2: you could still lose that game, play really well and

349
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Speaker 2: then run the table in those last four games and

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Speaker 2: still be a favorite potentially too. I love the Hurts

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Speaker 2: pick that you're talking about though, too, because that was

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Speaker 2: the other one I wanted to bring it.

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Speaker 1: The number one Hurts is very good right now.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I think the other thing to consider here and

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Speaker 3: I'm pulling up the Egal schedule because I'm I'm curious

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Speaker 3: as to the timing of something.

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Speaker 1: Because how it plays out that last.

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Speaker 2: You know, that last moment, right, that's what you're kind

359
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Speaker 2: of looking at, like where you know, with that lasting

360
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Speaker 2: image that seems to mean so much when you get

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Speaker 2: to the markets.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, and I think the bypoint for Allen is probably

363
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Speaker 3: right before the Chiefs game. Like, I think that's going

364
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Speaker 3: to carry more weight than probably the Lions game just

365
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Speaker 3: because of that history, that rivalry. Like everyone's going to

366
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Speaker 3: be focused on that game. It's a late afternoon game,

367
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Speaker 3: maybe that gets flexed in. But after that, again, those

368
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Speaker 3: three games against the Patriots, Jets and Patriots, those are

369
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Speaker 3: all going to be noon games. So like he'll have

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Speaker 3: probably wrapped up winning the award by then, and so

371
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Speaker 3: I don't want to bet into it. Then I'm going

372
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Speaker 3: to want to bet into it earlier than that. While

373
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Speaker 3: it's it's still some plus odds, So again this being

374
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Speaker 3: in prime time, Like I think one of the switching

375
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Speaker 3: points last year was the forty nine Ers Ravens game

376
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Speaker 3: on was that Christmas? I think yes, when Rock Party

377
00:18:54,359 --> 00:18:57,240
Speaker 3: sort of went into a shell, everyone saw him. He

378
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Speaker 3: threw multiple interceptions like that kind of ruined his is

379
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Speaker 3: MVP case. And if if this game, you know, against

380
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Speaker 3: the Lines is a late afternoon so won't be with

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Speaker 3: competing with as many games. Theoretically, again, maybe it gets

382
00:19:12,520 --> 00:19:16,440
Speaker 3: flexed into to Sunday night football, but you know how

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Speaker 3: many eyes are on this game. These games certainly has

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Speaker 3: a little bit of impact.

385
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Speaker 2: Yeah, I would agree wholeheartedly about that. Let's go and

386
00:19:26,040 --> 00:19:27,359
Speaker 2: look at some of the stats to some of the

387
00:19:27,440 --> 00:19:29,719
Speaker 2: numbers you need to understand before you start placing your

388
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Speaker 2: wagers for a week nine, And start with the Cardinals

389
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Speaker 2: and their pressure rates.

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Speaker 1: So, Sam, what do you have to say about that?

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Speaker 2: Because they have a pressure rate above thirty percent, and look,

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Speaker 2: they're coming off of big w here one that maybe

393
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Speaker 2: a lot of people are not expecting necessarily.

394
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Speaker 3: Yeah, So the Cardinals face the Bears this week, and

395
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Speaker 3: the Bears are going to be down a couple or

396
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Speaker 3: could be down a couple offensive linemen. Left tackle Braxton

397
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Speaker 3: Jones left the game early with a knee injury, right

398
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Speaker 3: guard Built or Only left the game early with the

399
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Speaker 3: chess injury, and left guard Tevin Jenkins left the game

400
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Speaker 3: against the Commanders early with a knee injury. So you think, okay,

401
00:20:07,240 --> 00:20:11,520
Speaker 3: their offensive line, which has already not played super well

402
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Speaker 3: this year, is going to be down some key pieces.

403
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Speaker 3: But if there's any team that you probably want to

404
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Speaker 3: face with a battered offensive line, it's the Arizona Cardinals.

405
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Speaker 3: They have a pressure rate over thirty percent in just

406
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Speaker 3: two of eight games this year. They're twenty six point

407
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Speaker 3: six percent. Pressure rate ranks thirtieth in the League. So again,

408
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Speaker 3: I don't think these offensive line injuries are going to

409
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Speaker 3: matter a ton to the Bears at this point. Dj Moore,

410
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Speaker 3: I think might be the more impactful injury Tomor he

411
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Speaker 3: left the game. He did come back to the game

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Speaker 3: against Washington, but you know who, if he's out, that

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Speaker 3: certainly changes the math a little bit more. But yeah,

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Speaker 3: I just don't think again, facing the Cardinals, you're really

415
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Speaker 3: going to have to struggle with protecting your quarterback.

416
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Speaker 2: All right, let's move to the next number here, Oh

417
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Speaker 2: Nicks versus the Ravens. You know, like sometimes the timing

418
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Speaker 2: is everything they say in life, and I'm a little

419
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Speaker 2: worried that, you know, maybe Bo Nicks and the Denver

420
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Speaker 2: Broncos are not going to find the Ravens at the

421
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Speaker 2: right time in this schedule. You would hope they come

422
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Speaker 2: out with a win against Cleveland and maybe you catch

423
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Speaker 2: them napping a little bit. I don't think that's gonna

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Speaker 2: happen in this game. Denver's defensive played very well. Bo

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Speaker 2: Nicks has been, you know, a little bit more of

426
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Speaker 2: a game manager, using his legs a lot. So what

427
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Speaker 2: are the numbers that jump out to you in this contest?

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Speaker 3: Yeah, So I've talked about this a bit on the

429
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Speaker 3: show already, but the Ravens remain one of the bigger

430
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Speaker 3: pass funnels in the league. They rank twenty ninth in

431
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Speaker 3: the league in passing EPA per play allowed and thirty

432
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Speaker 3: second in explosive pass right allowed. But they also rank

433
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Speaker 3: sixth in rushing EPA per play aloud in first in

434
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Speaker 3: explosive rush Right around now they face BONNICKX, who has

435
00:21:50,600 --> 00:21:54,679
Speaker 3: gotten better, isn't on the same level of some of

436
00:21:54,720 --> 00:21:58,280
Speaker 3: the past quarterbacks that Baltimore has faced in Baker Mayfield,

437
00:21:58,400 --> 00:22:02,480
Speaker 3: Jane Daniels, Joe Burrow, Josh Allen, Dak Prescott in Mahomes,

438
00:22:02,560 --> 00:22:06,240
Speaker 3: But over the last four games, Knicks is tenth in

439
00:22:06,359 --> 00:22:10,480
Speaker 3: PFF passing grade, eight in explore, eighth in explosive pass rate,

440
00:22:10,680 --> 00:22:16,960
Speaker 3: and fifteenth in completion percentage over expectations. So it's it's

441
00:22:17,040 --> 00:22:23,840
Speaker 3: kind of a you know, week spot versus mediocre aspect

442
00:22:24,000 --> 00:22:28,720
Speaker 3: in terms of the the bow Knicks. So I think

443
00:22:28,760 --> 00:22:31,920
Speaker 3: that's again it's do you trust the Ravens to take

444
00:22:31,960 --> 00:22:34,719
Speaker 3: advantage of this rookie quarterback or do you think bo

445
00:22:34,880 --> 00:22:38,679
Speaker 3: Nicks has actually progressed as a passer. And then on

446
00:22:38,720 --> 00:22:41,840
Speaker 3: the other side, The Ravens offense still remains elite. They

447
00:22:42,200 --> 00:22:47,200
Speaker 3: had some some turnovers and red zone issues against the Browns.

448
00:22:47,240 --> 00:22:49,360
Speaker 3: I have them rated as my third best offense though,

449
00:22:49,640 --> 00:22:51,880
Speaker 3: and they're facing what I have rated as the third

450
00:22:51,920 --> 00:22:57,160
Speaker 3: best defense in the Denver Broncos. But again, strength of schedule,

451
00:22:57,240 --> 00:23:00,880
Speaker 3: Like you look at the opposing offenses that Denver has faced.

452
00:23:01,000 --> 00:23:03,879
Speaker 3: They've played the Panthers, who are thirty first in EPA

453
00:23:03,960 --> 00:23:07,199
Speaker 3: for play, Saints are twenty fifth when they had a

454
00:23:07,280 --> 00:23:11,280
Speaker 3: backup quarterback as well. The Chargers, you know, pretty good

455
00:23:11,560 --> 00:23:15,959
Speaker 3: twenty second, but the Raiders thirty second and the Jets eighteenth.

456
00:23:16,080 --> 00:23:19,880
Speaker 3: So how much of this you know, both on the

457
00:23:20,000 --> 00:23:23,840
Speaker 3: Ravens defensive side of the ball, facing a ton of

458
00:23:23,880 --> 00:23:28,000
Speaker 3: great quarterbacks, how much does that impact things? While again

459
00:23:28,280 --> 00:23:32,879
Speaker 3: the excuse me, the Broncos defense playing a lot of

460
00:23:32,920 --> 00:23:36,159
Speaker 3: easier offense as well. So this is going to be

461
00:23:36,920 --> 00:23:38,760
Speaker 3: what's actually true kind of game?

462
00:23:39,840 --> 00:23:41,760
Speaker 2: Well, I'm going to go on the side of the

463
00:23:41,920 --> 00:23:45,280
Speaker 2: what's actually true is the Botnicks hasn't progressed quite enough yet.

464
00:23:45,520 --> 00:23:47,919
Speaker 2: I think Harball and the Ravens will have some answers

465
00:23:47,960 --> 00:23:49,320
Speaker 2: and they just got to catch some more balls.

466
00:23:49,560 --> 00:23:50,160
Speaker 1: Let's be honest.

467
00:23:50,200 --> 00:23:52,720
Speaker 2: I mean that game was in their hands literally on

468
00:23:52,840 --> 00:23:55,000
Speaker 2: offense and on defense multiple times where they could have

469
00:23:55,000 --> 00:23:56,720
Speaker 2: put the Browns away and they didn't. And you can't

470
00:23:56,760 --> 00:23:58,720
Speaker 2: let teams hang around. It's what they did with the

471
00:23:58,800 --> 00:24:03,280
Speaker 2: Raiders in two. And you know they they Andrew put

472
00:24:03,320 --> 00:24:04,199
Speaker 2: it this way yesterday.

473
00:24:04,240 --> 00:24:05,200
Speaker 1: Sam. They play with their.

474
00:24:05,119 --> 00:24:08,199
Speaker 2: Food and that's a problem, and that's it. Until they

475
00:24:08,240 --> 00:24:11,159
Speaker 2: stop doing that, they're never going to get back to

476
00:24:11,160 --> 00:24:13,359
Speaker 2: the super Bowl. You have to take can or handle

477
00:24:13,359 --> 00:24:13,800
Speaker 2: their business.

478
00:24:13,880 --> 00:24:14,919
Speaker 1: And it's the one thing we can make.

479
00:24:14,960 --> 00:24:16,680
Speaker 2: All the jokes in the world about Mahomes, the stats

480
00:24:16,680 --> 00:24:19,359
Speaker 2: and all that stuff, the Chiefs know how to handle

481
00:24:19,400 --> 00:24:22,320
Speaker 2: their business in those moments. Let's get to the Chargers here,

482
00:24:22,800 --> 00:24:26,920
Speaker 2: another game to where the Chargers disappointing effort. I think

483
00:24:26,960 --> 00:24:29,480
Speaker 2: we can look at the Chargers this week are playing

484
00:24:29,640 --> 00:24:32,600
Speaker 2: a Cleveland team now at home. That is a little

485
00:24:32,600 --> 00:24:35,159
Speaker 2: bit of life, and I think it's very dangerous, to

486
00:24:35,160 --> 00:24:37,359
Speaker 2: be honest with you, I already bet this one.

487
00:24:38,119 --> 00:24:40,160
Speaker 1: I think that the line is just wrong.

488
00:24:40,880 --> 00:24:43,560
Speaker 2: I think Cleveland should be favored in this game. But Sam,

489
00:24:43,600 --> 00:24:45,360
Speaker 2: what do you think about it? What's stats stand out

490
00:24:45,400 --> 00:24:45,640
Speaker 2: to you?

491
00:24:46,440 --> 00:24:46,720
Speaker 1: Yeah?

492
00:24:46,800 --> 00:24:50,600
Speaker 3: So all off season, the first couple of weeks of

493
00:24:50,640 --> 00:24:54,960
Speaker 3: the season, the Chargers were, you know, we're pound the ball.

494
00:24:55,000 --> 00:24:56,520
Speaker 3: We're going to pound the rock. We're going to run

495
00:24:56,560 --> 00:24:59,359
Speaker 3: the ball as much as we can. And for the

496
00:24:59,400 --> 00:25:02,960
Speaker 3: first four weeks they were thirty first in early down

497
00:25:03,000 --> 00:25:06,080
Speaker 3: neutral script pass frequency, throwing the ball at just a

498
00:25:06,119 --> 00:25:09,720
Speaker 3: forty point four percent clip. Since the buy, over the

499
00:25:09,760 --> 00:25:12,960
Speaker 3: last three weeks, they are first in early down neutral

500
00:25:12,960 --> 00:25:16,320
Speaker 3: script pass rate at sixty three point eight percent. Again,

501
00:25:16,359 --> 00:25:19,800
Speaker 3: this isn't game script driven either. Their second over the

502
00:25:19,880 --> 00:25:22,239
Speaker 3: last four weeks in pass right over expectation at two

503
00:25:22,280 --> 00:25:26,000
Speaker 3: point one percent. And I don't know if it's you know,

504
00:25:26,600 --> 00:25:29,520
Speaker 3: Jim Harbaugh realizing that they have this incredible quarterback in

505
00:25:29,680 --> 00:25:33,960
Speaker 3: Justin Herbert, or Justin Herbert's just playing well enough to

506
00:25:34,320 --> 00:25:36,640
Speaker 3: get them to throw the ball more. But he's been

507
00:25:36,680 --> 00:25:39,480
Speaker 3: balling out over the last three games. He's first in

508
00:25:39,560 --> 00:25:42,919
Speaker 3: PFF passing grade eighth and EPA per play, sixth in

509
00:25:43,000 --> 00:25:46,520
Speaker 3: explosive pass rate. And they play a Browns defense now

510
00:25:46,880 --> 00:25:51,240
Speaker 3: who is dealing with some injuries on the defensive side

511
00:25:51,280 --> 00:25:55,200
Speaker 3: of the ball. Jeremiah Wusu Koramobo was carted off after

512
00:25:55,280 --> 00:25:58,200
Speaker 3: a big hit from Derrick Henry, he spent Sunday night

513
00:25:58,200 --> 00:26:03,359
Speaker 3: in the hospital has since been released, thankfully. Okaranquo left

514
00:26:03,359 --> 00:26:06,240
Speaker 3: the game early and Denzel Award also left the game

515
00:26:06,520 --> 00:26:10,520
Speaker 3: early with a concussion. So if the Chargers continue to

516
00:26:10,640 --> 00:26:13,840
Speaker 3: lean into the past, this Browns defense is not what

517
00:26:13,920 --> 00:26:18,440
Speaker 3: it was previously with the stout you know, pass coverage

518
00:26:18,520 --> 00:26:22,439
Speaker 3: that they had in years past, and I think the

519
00:26:22,520 --> 00:26:24,640
Speaker 3: Chargers can can take advantage of that. They still don't

520
00:26:24,640 --> 00:26:29,879
Speaker 3: necessarily have the playmakers on the outside. Land Maconkey is

521
00:26:29,920 --> 00:26:33,520
Speaker 3: developing into a nice piece, but I think the Chargers

522
00:26:33,560 --> 00:26:35,480
Speaker 3: will be able to take advantage of the Browns through

523
00:26:35,520 --> 00:26:38,600
Speaker 3: the air, and hopefully we'll continue to do so.

524
00:26:39,400 --> 00:26:42,159
Speaker 2: Yeah, certainly it seems like a good approach, all right,

525
00:26:42,200 --> 00:26:44,719
Speaker 2: last one for you, Let's talk about the Survival Will

526
00:26:44,800 --> 00:26:48,000
Speaker 2: pick of the week. If you're still available and you're

527
00:26:48,040 --> 00:26:51,280
Speaker 2: still viable in your Survivor pool, good on you. A

528
00:26:51,280 --> 00:26:53,400
Speaker 2: lot of us got eliminated very quickly this year.

529
00:26:53,440 --> 00:26:54,040
Speaker 1: It was brutal.

530
00:26:54,760 --> 00:26:57,440
Speaker 2: But let's talk about this week. Who looked really good

531
00:26:57,560 --> 00:26:59,720
Speaker 2: and maybe it's a team that you might not expect

532
00:26:59,720 --> 00:27:01,600
Speaker 2: because coming off of two losses in a row.

533
00:27:03,560 --> 00:27:07,680
Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm gonna go with the Vikings. Here again. They

534
00:27:07,720 --> 00:27:10,800
Speaker 3: lost left tackle Christian Jarsa on Thursday Night Football, but

535
00:27:10,880 --> 00:27:14,640
Speaker 3: they have the extra time to sort of make contingency

536
00:27:14,680 --> 00:27:19,320
Speaker 3: plans for that, which should help. Anthony Richardson is probably

537
00:27:19,320 --> 00:27:22,080
Speaker 3: a bottom six or seven quarterback in the league right now.

538
00:27:22,160 --> 00:27:25,840
Speaker 3: The Vikings playing the Colts, and I think Brian Flores

539
00:27:25,920 --> 00:27:29,240
Speaker 3: will will have a field day against Anthony Richardson. The

540
00:27:29,880 --> 00:27:32,800
Speaker 3: Vikings defense has taken a bit of a step back,

541
00:27:32,880 --> 00:27:36,600
Speaker 3: but that's been against the Lions offense that has been

542
00:27:36,640 --> 00:27:39,359
Speaker 3: at full health, a Rams offense at full health with

543
00:27:39,440 --> 00:27:42,320
Speaker 3: Cooper Cup and Bukman Nikoua back, So I think those

544
00:27:42,400 --> 00:27:47,320
Speaker 3: are more opponent driven sort of downgrades for the Vikings.

545
00:27:47,320 --> 00:27:49,800
Speaker 3: So I think at home, off the extra rest, the

546
00:27:50,160 --> 00:27:52,800
Speaker 3: Vikings are able to take care of business, all right.

547
00:27:52,840 --> 00:27:54,439
Speaker 2: So there you have it, everybody, look for the Vikings

548
00:27:54,440 --> 00:27:56,240
Speaker 2: this week, and again, make sure you check out all

549
00:27:56,240 --> 00:27:59,159
Speaker 2: of Sam's workover at Bettingpros dot com and follow him

550
00:27:59,640 --> 00:28:02,280
Speaker 2: as he follow me also on the Betting Pros app.

551
00:28:02,320 --> 00:28:03,840
Speaker 2: That'll do it for us, But the story of the

552
00:28:03,840 --> 00:28:05,480
Speaker 2: game goes on for Sam Hoppin'.

553
00:28:05,600 --> 00:28:08,119
Speaker 1: I'm Joey p. We'll see you next time kids.

554
00:28:08,880 --> 00:28:11,480
Speaker 4: Thanks for listening. To the Betting Pros podcast. If you

555
00:28:11,560 --> 00:28:13,879
Speaker 4: love the show. The best freeway to support us is

556
00:28:13,920 --> 00:28:17,359
Speaker 4: by leaving a positive review on Apple Podcasts or Spotify.

557
00:28:17,640 --> 00:28:20,240
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558
00:28:20,359 --> 00:28:24,000
Speaker 4: Instagram at betting Pros NFL. Also subscribe to our YouTube

559
00:28:24,080 --> 00:28:26,560
Speaker 4: channel at YouTube dot com slash Betting Pros