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Speaker 1: This is Bloomberg surveillance. I think the currency is beginning

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Speaker 1: to shift its focus from nominal short term interest rate

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Speaker 1: dereferentials to real short term interest rate dereferentials. If we're

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Speaker 1: gonna start so assessful, we thinks that happen in the

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Speaker 1: emerging world. That's cristal for the global economy. The story

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Speaker 1: starts and ends in what happens in China. We're in

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Speaker 1: a modest growth environment. Growth has brittle and below POW,

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Speaker 1: but we are not facing a significant risk of recession anytimes.

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Speaker 1: Through Bloomberg surveillance. Your link to the world of economics,

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Speaker 1: finance and investment on Bloomberg Radio Ji running everyone, Michael

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Speaker 1: McKee and Tim Keen Bloomberg Surveillance. Mr McKee off off

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Speaker 1: off the Berry rid Holts three days in a row.

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Speaker 1: It's a hat trick of brilliance with Barry rid Holts

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Speaker 1: as he joins us on Economics Finance, on Barry Ridholtz's

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Speaker 1: investment wisdom. We always try to do that for one

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Speaker 1: section as we do many hours of Bloomberg surveillance, and

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Speaker 1: good to have Barry here really with markets moving yesterday,

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Speaker 1: UM sitting there Barry listening to Cherry yelling twenty ft away.

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Speaker 1: I didn't get the market impact. She was so subtle, whammo,

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Speaker 1: she moved the markets. They did not hear. The market

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Speaker 1: did not hear anything it didn't want to hear. Basically,

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Speaker 1: the Fed said longer lower, for longer low and slow

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Speaker 1: and markets like that. Yeah. Absolutely so, there we are

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Speaker 1: much to talk about. Richard hast to join us here momentarily.

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Speaker 1: Bloomer Savannasa swarning brought you by Investco. Don't settle for

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Speaker 1: average in your portfolio. To Investco, the right approach means

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Speaker 1: investing with high conviction. Find out more at investco dot

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Speaker 1: com slash high Conviction. Richard Hasta with us. We've been

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Speaker 1: talking all morning about any of the number of challenges

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Speaker 1: in international relations. And to get back to your wonderful

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Speaker 1: book at Dovetails ambassador into lousy economic growth. We're enjoying

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Speaker 1: lousy economic growth that makes everything more difficult. We use

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Speaker 1: the word lubricant on year before. This is the opposite

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Speaker 1: opposite of it, sand paper, and what it does with

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Speaker 1: low economic growth, you have issues like inequality coming to

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Speaker 1: the four when the real issue is one of social

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Speaker 1: and economic mobility and the lack of it, but it

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Speaker 1: creates a political climate where, for example, issues like free

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Speaker 1: trade and the rest become politically toxic. You know, there

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Speaker 1: was just an article in Today's New York Times that

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Speaker 1: described how many automobile related jobs were saved by a

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Speaker 1: policy like NAFTA. So from whence comes in that specific

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Speaker 1: part of the country, the anger at what's taking place

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Speaker 1: uh policy wise in terms of trade. Trade is getting

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Speaker 1: scapegoaded for a lot of the ills. In many cases,

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Speaker 1: jobs are disappearing. In some cases it is because of

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Speaker 1: cheap foreign imports. In most cases it's simply because of

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Speaker 1: things like technology, innovation, increased productivity and so forth. And

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Speaker 1: then we don't have workers who are getting the opportunities

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Speaker 1: to get retrained, educated for for new jobs and sothing.

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Speaker 1: We don't have the systems in place educationally financially to

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Speaker 1: do that. So trade has become a convenient scapegoat. But

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Speaker 1: people are forgetting. Trade creates jobs, Trade lowers inflation, trade

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Speaker 1: creates consumer choice. Trade is strategically a real glue for

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Speaker 1: the world that makes us closer to allies. It gives

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Speaker 1: potential foes reason to think twice before doing radical things.

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Speaker 1: So trade has been a major bulwark. Tom Erica's role

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Speaker 1: in the world. Tom, I'm hearing a lot of similar

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Speaker 1: themes that the OECU Secretary General Angel Correa discussed with

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Speaker 1: us yesterday about how significant trade can be both for

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Speaker 1: emerging economies and developed countries and how it's a net

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Speaker 1: net positive. Well, that's there, but there's a debate over

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Speaker 1: a collapse in trade, a dampening in trade, just part

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Speaker 1: of weaker global GDP. Do you have any perspective on

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Speaker 1: an ambassadors, there a real dynamic with trade hours it overplayed. Well,

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Speaker 1: you're as you're right, a slowdown in the growth of

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Speaker 1: global trade. It's it's growing kind of slightly. It's it's

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Speaker 1: it's it's pretty like global trade talks have hit a wall.

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Speaker 1: So we're now into an era of regional and bilateral

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Speaker 1: trade talks. So we can't we can't get the big

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Speaker 1: games that we had in the past. But the biggest show,

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Speaker 1: I think is the collapse of domestic support for quote

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Speaker 1: unquote free trade in countries like the United States. So

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Speaker 1: t p P, which involves of the world's economy. Uh,

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Speaker 1: and right now I think it's it's anybody's guests about

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Speaker 1: whether you could get that trade agreement passed So what

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Speaker 1: do we have to do from both the policy perspective

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Speaker 1: and and a practical perspective to train workers and give

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Speaker 1: them the skills they need for the twenty one century,

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Speaker 1: but also have people become realistic about what needs to

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Speaker 1: take place on the policy side. It's it's the right question,

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Speaker 1: easier to raise than to answer. Part of it is

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Speaker 1: to have politicians have an honest debate about what are

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Speaker 1: the sources of job laws waiting for? If we're gonna

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Speaker 1: wait for an honest debate from politics answers but a

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Speaker 1: long time, fair enough, But we're losing the debate, the

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Speaker 1: honest answer, losing debate. You know, I find it amazing

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Speaker 1: that people who on Tuesdays will stand up and criticize

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Speaker 1: China and worry about the Chinese threat, on Wednesdays will

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Speaker 1: oppose TPP. You can't have it both ways. So we've

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Speaker 1: got to have an honest debate about it. But the

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Speaker 1: first half of your question gets at it. We've got

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Speaker 1: to have much more of a safety net. We've got

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Speaker 1: to move away from a front loaded education system in

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Speaker 1: this coutch where everything is about high school and college.

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Speaker 1: There's no way, no matter how good it is, it's

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Speaker 1: going to serve people for the next thirty fifty years

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Speaker 1: of their life. So whether it's community colleges, whether it's

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Speaker 1: online or what have you, we're gonna need or various

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Speaker 1: types of portable education accounts. We're going to need mechanisms

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Speaker 1: to retrain people, uh, either in schools in many cases

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Speaker 1: at the workplace in their forties, fifties, and sixties. The

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Speaker 1: reason that so many in particular men in their fifties

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Speaker 1: and sixties are supporting candidates like Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders,

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Speaker 1: I would say, is because of this, we ought to

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Speaker 1: we ought to take notice of this and address their

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Speaker 1: legitimate charms. So the frustration levels are this sort of

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Speaker 1: amorphous anger that's not really specific, that's directed at the

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Speaker 1: wrong place, when really it's a demand for I want

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Speaker 1: to work. I need the skills to compete in the

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Speaker 1: twenty one century. I have no idea how aware to

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Speaker 1: get them, and people at the same time, you know

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Speaker 1: that they don't have the retirement savings. They're gonna need

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Speaker 1: to see themselves through their their lives of this discriptions

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Speaker 1: of a safety net, and that either they've lost their

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Speaker 1: job or they're worried they're gonna lose their job. That

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Speaker 1: creates either anxiety, anger or both. One of the frustrations here,

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Speaker 1: and it's a reading a history that you're expert on

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Speaker 1: and I'm less so, is the desire for government policy

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Speaker 1: that directly in spurs investment in America. And Secretary Clinton's

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Speaker 1: alluded this with fair trade, but maybe it goes back

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Speaker 1: to lb J and I use him generally as a

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Speaker 1: debate about investment tax credits. Is that the dumbest idea?

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Speaker 1: But there's so many things we could do tom to

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Speaker 1: increase investment in American One would be to have a

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Speaker 1: serious infrastructure, which we don't have. The second would be

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Speaker 1: a little bit of corporate tax reform to get some

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Speaker 1: of these corporations to to bring their their profits back

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Speaker 1: home rather than have them sit and accounts abroad. Better education,

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Speaker 1: would give people, you know, the workforces that would be

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Speaker 1: investors would need here. There's any number of things we

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Speaker 1: could do to increase UH investment back home. Without even

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Speaker 1: getting into the debate you suggested that infrastructure issue just

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Speaker 1: comes up every single day. It's astonishing that grid luck

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Speaker 1: has prevented us from doing anything for those of you

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Speaker 1: globally enjoy Terminal one JFK. I had to run through

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Speaker 1: it recently. I can't remember. It was like maybe to Paris.

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Speaker 1: And it's basically a third world I mean, if it

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Speaker 1: is the dust, you know, this is my my pet peeve.

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Speaker 1: And in all fairness, both the Jet Blue terminal JFK

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Speaker 1: and the new Delta terminal is the leading edge of

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Speaker 1: the rehability. Are fully agree. It's it's like being in

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Speaker 1: a different world. Lei Pretia is still a third world time.

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Speaker 1: Remember when Joe Biden, the Vice President, got in trouble

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Speaker 1: for describing laguariety of the third world airport and I

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Speaker 1: being generous exactly, I travel in the third World most

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Speaker 1: of the time, and we should be so good. You know,

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Speaker 1: if our roads were half as nice as those in Brussels,

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Speaker 1: that would be amazing. Before we let you go, you're

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Speaker 1: going to Argentina. What an excitement that is. It's really

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Speaker 1: almost like Mere and Mari and Burma five years ago

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Speaker 1: with Secretary Clinton there. What are you gonna observe or

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Speaker 1: what are you gonna do in Argentina to get the

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Speaker 1: pause of a new nation. I want to get to

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Speaker 1: know the new leadership. Wanna get to you know, talk

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Speaker 1: to some of the business people to get a sense

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Speaker 1: of exactly what is being done, what still remains to

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Speaker 1: be done to get Argentina out of the extraordinarily deepole

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Speaker 1: that President Kirshner left it in. And then I go

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Speaker 1: on to Brazil and there it's in a very different place,

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Speaker 1: and if you will, in the political cycle. And the

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Speaker 1: real question in Brazil is, uh, when can it get out?

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Speaker 1: How can it get out of the message in? And

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Speaker 1: then what what what's the sequence and pace of reforms

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Speaker 1: that has to take place, because whoever takes over in

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Speaker 1: Brazil and three months or three years, they're going to

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Speaker 1: inherit an economy that's gonna be what ten percent smaller

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Speaker 1: than it was a couple of years ago. And you

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Speaker 1: and your Decathalon it was touching go whether you'd go

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Speaker 1: to Rio right? Yeah, fourth, you know, as someone else

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Speaker 1: has to drop out in order to do it. I

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Speaker 1: could get invited there. So it was the Oberlin. It

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Speaker 1: was the Overlin shirt and switchery or Richard Hoss, thank

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Speaker 1: you so much, greatly appreciated. He is the President of

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Speaker 1: the Council on Foreign Relations, giving us wonderful perspective. I

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Speaker 1: can't say enough, folks about a careful read of hostas

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Speaker 1: project syndicate uh op ed or essay, I should say,

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Speaker 1: because a greater credibility essay on the state of the

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Speaker 1: United States really important reading Barry, here we are, Jeanna,

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Speaker 1: you just quickly here and this will be a theme

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Speaker 1: through the hours. I was like eighteen feet from her

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Speaker 1: or twenty two ft from her, and I'm over my

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Speaker 1: rubber chicken. Thank you, Marriott. And I didn't hear the

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Speaker 1: devilishness that the market heard instantly out of her comments.

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Speaker 1: She did mince any words. That was pretty straightforward. There

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Speaker 1: wasn't a whole lot of that the keys, there were

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Speaker 1: no surprises, and nothing that indicated that the hawks on

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Speaker 1: the fl M city are swaying her. It's it's more

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Speaker 1: the same low and slow, slow, steady increases, and that's

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Speaker 1: the what the market wanted to hive. And she mentioned

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Speaker 1: slack only a few times, unlike I think she mentioned

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Speaker 1: it four hundred and twelve times a while ago. The

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Speaker 1: data shows it features up twelve down futures up one

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Speaker 1: oh one, the dept closing seventeen thousand, six hundred thirty three,

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Speaker 1: the vix uh quiescent thirteen point eight to the ten

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Speaker 1: year yield one point eight to percent oil churns off

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Speaker 1: Dollar Dynamics d X y weeker Yen one twelve thirty two,

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Speaker 1: West Texas thirty eight ninety a barrel. This hour of

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg surveillance always brought you by Westchester Subaru. Visit Westchester

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Speaker 1: Suparu dot com with our news in New York. Here's

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Speaker 1: Michael tom Berry. Thank you very much. Donald Trump says

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Speaker 1: he supports his campaign manager, who was charged with simple

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Speaker 1: battery in Florida. Korey Lewandowski is accused of roughing up

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Speaker 1: a reporter who tried to ask a question. Trump also

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Speaker 1: says he is rescinding his pledge to back the eventual

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Speaker 1: Republican nominee if it's not him. The man who admits

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Speaker 1: he hijacked and egypt airplane had a court appearance today

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Speaker 1: in Cyprus. The Court of order the fifty year old

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Speaker 1: man to be held for eight days the Egyptian hijack

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Speaker 1: the domestake Egypt Air flight yesterday and ordered it to

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Speaker 1: be diverted to Cyprus by threatening to blow it up

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Speaker 1: with a fake explosives bill. The US plans to beef

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Speaker 1: up its military presence in Eastern Europe pending on officials

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