1 00:00:03,120 --> 00:00:08,640 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio News. 2 00:00:17,320 --> 00:00:21,400 Speaker 2: Hello and welcome to another special episode of voter Nomics, 3 00:00:21,440 --> 00:00:26,720 Speaker 2: the Bloomberg Podcast where politics and markets collide. I'm Stephanie Flanders, 4 00:00:26,720 --> 00:00:29,720 Speaker 2: head of Economics and Government at Bloomberg, and this morning 5 00:00:29,760 --> 00:00:33,600 Speaker 2: we have another historic election. A few days ago it 6 00:00:33,800 --> 00:00:36,839 Speaker 2: was in the UK. This time it's in France and 7 00:00:37,080 --> 00:00:40,120 Speaker 2: historic in a rather different way. We are in Paris 8 00:00:40,240 --> 00:00:43,800 Speaker 2: the morning after French voters surprised the world by not 9 00:00:43,960 --> 00:00:48,600 Speaker 2: granting Marine Le Penz Rassan party the largest number of 10 00:00:48,640 --> 00:00:53,320 Speaker 2: seats in the French Parliament. Instead, her far right grouping 11 00:00:53,400 --> 00:00:56,000 Speaker 2: came third, it looks like, and the new Popular Front 12 00:00:56,160 --> 00:01:02,160 Speaker 2: on the left came first. So we have investors financial 13 00:01:02,240 --> 00:01:07,120 Speaker 2: markets who were priced for a far right victory but 14 00:01:07,400 --> 00:01:11,800 Speaker 2: probably a logjam in parliament. Instead we got a far 15 00:01:11,920 --> 00:01:17,120 Speaker 2: left victory but probably a logjam in parliament. And so far, 16 00:01:17,319 --> 00:01:20,120 Speaker 2: the way they've digested that result is to have the 17 00:01:20,160 --> 00:01:24,039 Speaker 2: euro a bit weaker, but if anything, interestingly, a slight 18 00:01:24,600 --> 00:01:28,920 Speaker 2: strengthening in French bonds relative to Germany. We'll see if 19 00:01:28,959 --> 00:01:33,080 Speaker 2: that lasts as people start to realize quite how uncertain 20 00:01:33,200 --> 00:01:36,280 Speaker 2: the future of the government is, and we're going to 21 00:01:36,319 --> 00:01:39,920 Speaker 2: cut through that fog of uncertainty just a little bit 22 00:01:40,520 --> 00:01:43,240 Speaker 2: over the next thirty forty minutes or so, here in 23 00:01:43,280 --> 00:01:47,160 Speaker 2: the atrium of Bloomberg's Paris Bureau, with some very smart 24 00:01:47,360 --> 00:01:52,880 Speaker 2: and distinguished guests from the Bloomberg Brains Trust. Starting on 25 00:01:52,960 --> 00:01:57,000 Speaker 2: my far left, we have leonell Lon, known to many 26 00:01:57,040 --> 00:01:59,600 Speaker 2: of you a Bloomberg opinion columnist writing about the future 27 00:01:59,600 --> 00:02:03,040 Speaker 2: of money and the future of Europe, based here in Paris. 28 00:02:03,400 --> 00:02:08,720 Speaker 2: And Eleonora Marvuedi, who is the economist for Bloomberg Economics, 29 00:02:09,360 --> 00:02:12,639 Speaker 2: part of the economic research group that I run as 30 00:02:12,680 --> 00:02:17,000 Speaker 2: part of the economics and government coverage at Bloomberg. She's 31 00:02:17,000 --> 00:02:19,240 Speaker 2: also in Paris, and she's worked at pretty much all 32 00:02:19,280 --> 00:02:22,359 Speaker 2: the big places OECD, Bank of England, I m F 33 00:02:23,280 --> 00:02:26,440 Speaker 2: and World Bank, and joining them a very special guest 34 00:02:26,720 --> 00:02:30,160 Speaker 2: who constitutes the brains Trust all when he's sitting by himself, 35 00:02:30,960 --> 00:02:36,079 Speaker 2: Jean Clantrichet, obviously former European Central Bank President, Bank of 36 00:02:36,120 --> 00:02:38,880 Speaker 2: France governor, long standing chair of the Group of Thirty, 37 00:02:39,000 --> 00:02:42,480 Speaker 2: the Royal Institute in Brussels, and many other things. 38 00:02:43,320 --> 00:02:43,800 Speaker 3: We have. 39 00:02:45,680 --> 00:02:48,120 Speaker 2: A very kind audience here at what I was told 40 00:02:48,240 --> 00:02:51,960 Speaker 2: was a slightly earlier hour for Parisian. So I thank 41 00:02:52,000 --> 00:02:53,639 Speaker 2: you for coming in. In return, you get to ask 42 00:02:53,680 --> 00:02:56,680 Speaker 2: some questions, I promise, but I must start with you. 43 00:02:57,600 --> 00:03:04,480 Speaker 2: Jean Crotrichet, analyst, sent me their response to last night's 44 00:03:04,520 --> 00:03:08,200 Speaker 2: results late last night with just a three word subject 45 00:03:08,200 --> 00:03:11,639 Speaker 2: for the email. What a mess is that about? Right? 46 00:03:11,760 --> 00:03:16,960 Speaker 2: Or should we be reassured and pleased by this outcome? 47 00:03:17,400 --> 00:03:20,120 Speaker 4: I think it would have been a real mess. If 48 00:03:20,360 --> 00:03:24,560 Speaker 4: the we have had an absolute majority, there would have 49 00:03:24,600 --> 00:03:30,200 Speaker 4: been a total mess. If the new popular font would 50 00:03:30,200 --> 00:03:33,519 Speaker 4: have had an absolute majority, it would also be really 51 00:03:33,639 --> 00:03:38,240 Speaker 4: a mess. So we are in a situation where things 52 00:03:38,320 --> 00:03:42,240 Speaker 4: are much better than the mess I was mentioning mess. 53 00:03:42,720 --> 00:03:45,480 Speaker 4: I was mentioning that being said, of course, we have 54 00:03:46,040 --> 00:03:49,200 Speaker 4: a Hong Parliament, which is a complex Hong parliament with 55 00:03:49,240 --> 00:03:54,920 Speaker 4: a three third one third being clearly with a program 56 00:03:55,160 --> 00:03:59,119 Speaker 4: which is very very aggressive, I would say, in some 57 00:03:59,160 --> 00:04:06,720 Speaker 4: respect in terms of economic analysis, center in the second position, 58 00:04:07,440 --> 00:04:12,160 Speaker 4: who we know him and we know what could be 59 00:04:12,240 --> 00:04:15,440 Speaker 4: done by the Center, but he's not in the position 60 00:04:15,600 --> 00:04:19,240 Speaker 4: of being the first parliamentary force. And then we have 61 00:04:19,360 --> 00:04:25,320 Speaker 4: the number three, namely the extreme right. So that being said, 62 00:04:25,760 --> 00:04:29,080 Speaker 4: if we were in another country, we would say, okay, 63 00:04:29,279 --> 00:04:32,920 Speaker 4: let's compute. Where do we stand. Ah, we have an 64 00:04:32,960 --> 00:04:38,280 Speaker 4: absolute majority center plus the Republica so I would say 65 00:04:38,279 --> 00:04:44,400 Speaker 4: Republican Right and plus the Party Socialist. It's a governmental party, 66 00:04:44,720 --> 00:04:47,480 Speaker 4: proved that he was able to govern France, and so 67 00:04:47,480 --> 00:04:51,600 Speaker 4: of course, so why not having this kind of coalition. 68 00:04:52,480 --> 00:04:54,520 Speaker 4: Of course, we are in France, we are not used 69 00:04:54,520 --> 00:04:58,479 Speaker 4: to that. We are not in a position to demonstrate 70 00:04:58,520 --> 00:05:00,400 Speaker 4: to our own people that it would be the right 71 00:05:00,440 --> 00:05:03,240 Speaker 4: way to proceed. So we will see what happens. But 72 00:05:03,440 --> 00:05:09,240 Speaker 4: it is obviously complex. Even if virtually I see this 73 00:05:09,360 --> 00:05:10,880 Speaker 4: possible majority. 74 00:05:10,760 --> 00:05:13,640 Speaker 2: You have all your years of experience, and then you 75 00:05:13,680 --> 00:05:17,360 Speaker 2: also have your hope of what happens for France and 76 00:05:18,240 --> 00:05:20,719 Speaker 2: for Europe over the next few years. As a result 77 00:05:20,760 --> 00:05:23,359 Speaker 2: of this, what do you hope will happen in the 78 00:05:23,360 --> 00:05:25,280 Speaker 2: next few and what do you expect to happen. 79 00:05:25,360 --> 00:05:31,800 Speaker 4: As a citizen? I hope that after due meditation, discussion, 80 00:05:32,560 --> 00:05:37,520 Speaker 4: assessment of the various possibilities, this idea that all taken 81 00:05:37,600 --> 00:05:42,520 Speaker 4: into account, an alliance of political might that has the 82 00:05:42,520 --> 00:05:46,880 Speaker 4: experience of government in France, namely the as I said, 83 00:05:47,120 --> 00:05:51,200 Speaker 4: the Party Socialist, and maybe the gains. On the one hand, 84 00:05:51,960 --> 00:05:55,719 Speaker 4: the republican republican right, as I said, and the Center 85 00:05:56,440 --> 00:06:01,440 Speaker 4: could finally have the possibility of governing the country. It's 86 00:06:01,560 --> 00:06:06,920 Speaker 4: very complex programs we are signed here and there, and 87 00:06:07,400 --> 00:06:10,680 Speaker 4: I expect that it would be a long process. But 88 00:06:11,200 --> 00:06:14,640 Speaker 4: in my opinion as a French citizen, it would certainly 89 00:06:14,720 --> 00:06:18,320 Speaker 4: be something which would not be abnormal in comparison with 90 00:06:18,440 --> 00:06:23,719 Speaker 4: all the other European democracies and would permit the country 91 00:06:23,800 --> 00:06:26,320 Speaker 4: to be governed in a responsible fashion. 92 00:06:26,480 --> 00:06:28,840 Speaker 2: You were saying to Francine, I think last week for 93 00:06:29,360 --> 00:06:34,640 Speaker 2: Bloomberg that you didn't think the US was France was 94 00:06:34,720 --> 00:06:40,360 Speaker 2: well suited to a technocratic government in the style of 95 00:06:40,640 --> 00:06:45,159 Speaker 2: Monty government in all drug e governments in Italy. But 96 00:06:45,320 --> 00:06:48,560 Speaker 2: that would seem to be at least one possibility coming out. 97 00:06:48,440 --> 00:06:54,080 Speaker 4: Of this in politics you should never send ever, of course, nevertheless, 98 00:06:54,160 --> 00:06:56,400 Speaker 4: it is not at all in the French condition. So 99 00:06:56,800 --> 00:07:00,159 Speaker 4: I maintained what I told Francie. I think that it 100 00:07:00,240 --> 00:07:04,040 Speaker 4: is not likely at all that we could have some 101 00:07:04,160 --> 00:07:08,520 Speaker 4: kind of technocratic government in Italy. You not only had 102 00:07:08,640 --> 00:07:12,760 Speaker 4: Monty and Dagie, you also had President of the Republics 103 00:07:13,000 --> 00:07:15,320 Speaker 4: that we are coming from the Central Bank, and you 104 00:07:15,960 --> 00:07:19,080 Speaker 4: had the succession of Prime Minister and then President of 105 00:07:19,120 --> 00:07:22,200 Speaker 4: the Republic. I mean, it's it's a strong tradition in Italy, 106 00:07:22,480 --> 00:07:26,000 Speaker 4: taking into account the complexity of the political life in Italy, 107 00:07:26,160 --> 00:07:30,240 Speaker 4: taking also into account that there is a place in 108 00:07:30,320 --> 00:07:34,000 Speaker 4: Roma where you have a very very strong techno structure, 109 00:07:34,280 --> 00:07:37,800 Speaker 4: which is the Central Bank, and this is recognized by 110 00:07:37,840 --> 00:07:42,000 Speaker 4: all political parties, by the people of Italy. So we 111 00:07:42,040 --> 00:07:45,239 Speaker 4: are not in this position. The reason why I don't 112 00:07:46,080 --> 00:07:49,119 Speaker 4: expect that we could have such but as I said, 113 00:07:49,240 --> 00:07:50,360 Speaker 4: never said never, and. 114 00:07:50,280 --> 00:07:52,440 Speaker 2: In your in your old jobs, you would have been 115 00:07:52,480 --> 00:07:56,640 Speaker 2: particularly the ECP, you would be wondering about the fiscal 116 00:07:56,960 --> 00:08:00,960 Speaker 2: financial implications of this uncertainty, and also what it tells 117 00:08:01,040 --> 00:08:05,080 Speaker 2: us about the direction of French politics and what is 118 00:08:05,120 --> 00:08:08,680 Speaker 2: going to be possible for President Macron or any future government. 119 00:08:09,040 --> 00:08:12,160 Speaker 2: I mean, is the underlying message that this is a 120 00:08:12,200 --> 00:08:15,480 Speaker 2: government that's going to borrow more and do less to 121 00:08:15,600 --> 00:08:19,560 Speaker 2: get its public finances and control and less in the 122 00:08:19,600 --> 00:08:24,800 Speaker 2: way of the business reforms that President Macron was supposed 123 00:08:24,840 --> 00:08:26,120 Speaker 2: to be forging. 124 00:08:26,360 --> 00:08:29,600 Speaker 4: First of all, I expect, of course that now that 125 00:08:29,640 --> 00:08:33,920 Speaker 4: we know the result, the idea that we could embark 126 00:08:34,640 --> 00:08:40,640 Speaker 4: on a program that would aggravate the situation in the 127 00:08:40,679 --> 00:08:45,360 Speaker 4: fiscal side that would aggravate the situation in many respect 128 00:08:45,480 --> 00:08:48,720 Speaker 4: as regards to the credit worthiness. If I may of 129 00:08:48,800 --> 00:08:52,520 Speaker 4: the country would appear not being visible at all. So 130 00:08:52,640 --> 00:08:56,840 Speaker 4: I expect a maturing process from now on that we 131 00:08:57,000 --> 00:09:03,000 Speaker 4: know that we have the results the programs. And it 132 00:09:03,120 --> 00:09:06,320 Speaker 4: was the case of the extreme right program, it's also 133 00:09:06,400 --> 00:09:08,760 Speaker 4: the case of the extra of the left program, the 134 00:09:08,920 --> 00:09:13,360 Speaker 4: new for popular we have their programs that are not feasible. 135 00:09:13,559 --> 00:09:17,720 Speaker 4: Frankly speaking, and in my opinion, in my expert opinion, 136 00:09:18,080 --> 00:09:21,520 Speaker 4: I'm speaking like an expert, not a French citizen. There 137 00:09:21,880 --> 00:09:24,679 Speaker 4: I don't think at all that it would be in 138 00:09:24,720 --> 00:09:28,800 Speaker 4: any respect reasonable to embark into new spendings. We have 139 00:09:28,880 --> 00:09:33,160 Speaker 4: no room from a new that's my clear diagnosis. So 140 00:09:33,679 --> 00:09:38,000 Speaker 4: I expect that being in a position of responsibility, we 141 00:09:38,080 --> 00:09:44,280 Speaker 4: will see a dramatic realization by the which a political 142 00:09:44,320 --> 00:09:47,719 Speaker 4: men and women in the question that it would be 143 00:09:47,880 --> 00:09:52,480 Speaker 4: a catastrophe for the country to embark on additional massive spending. 144 00:09:52,679 --> 00:09:56,280 Speaker 2: So that editation, which sounds like a warning. 145 00:09:56,800 --> 00:10:02,600 Speaker 4: It's my expectations, it's my hope. Also it's a warning certainly, 146 00:10:02,600 --> 00:10:05,520 Speaker 4: but the warning is there. I mean, you don't need 147 00:10:05,600 --> 00:10:07,840 Speaker 4: any warning you have a situation that you have to 148 00:10:07,880 --> 00:10:10,120 Speaker 4: be responsible in the situation. 149 00:10:10,160 --> 00:10:14,439 Speaker 2: NL will this be taken as a warning, as an 150 00:10:14,440 --> 00:10:20,480 Speaker 2: excuse or a pressure to mature, as Jean Proteiche is 151 00:10:20,559 --> 00:10:21,720 Speaker 2: hoping advising. 152 00:10:22,080 --> 00:10:24,280 Speaker 5: So I think what makes this a bit complicated is 153 00:10:24,320 --> 00:10:28,800 Speaker 5: that even though some parties are saying that they won selection, 154 00:10:28,840 --> 00:10:30,600 Speaker 5: I think it's pretty obvious that this was a vote 155 00:10:30,640 --> 00:10:34,040 Speaker 5: against the penn a vote against certain scenarios, but it 156 00:10:34,080 --> 00:10:36,800 Speaker 5: was not for anyone. Nobody has an absolute majority, so 157 00:10:36,840 --> 00:10:39,640 Speaker 5: I think it's frankly exaggerated to imagine as you hear 158 00:10:39,720 --> 00:10:41,800 Speaker 5: some on the far left immediately saying, this is a 159 00:10:41,840 --> 00:10:44,640 Speaker 5: vote for our program. So I think programs are going 160 00:10:44,679 --> 00:10:46,079 Speaker 5: to have to be fluid. I think there's no way 161 00:10:46,080 --> 00:10:50,040 Speaker 5: of getting around it. I also think that my hope 162 00:10:50,520 --> 00:10:55,360 Speaker 5: is that given the kind of extraordinary cynicism almost of 163 00:10:55,400 --> 00:10:58,040 Speaker 5: the way so these coalitions were constructed, whether it is 164 00:10:58,080 --> 00:11:00,760 Speaker 5: the far left, which was a real idea logical rainbow 165 00:11:00,800 --> 00:11:04,880 Speaker 5: that was frankly almost untenable, and also in the center 166 00:11:04,960 --> 00:11:07,520 Speaker 5: with this tactical voting in the middle, I am hopeful 167 00:11:07,559 --> 00:11:09,800 Speaker 5: that there is going to have to be some reckoning 168 00:11:10,080 --> 00:11:12,440 Speaker 5: on the program that comes out of a future coalition. 169 00:11:12,960 --> 00:11:16,319 Speaker 5: There are the numbers for something approaching I don't want 170 00:11:16,360 --> 00:11:19,440 Speaker 5: to jinx it. That's something like starmerism, where you have 171 00:11:19,559 --> 00:11:23,200 Speaker 5: the Center plus the Greens and the Socialists. The numbers 172 00:11:23,240 --> 00:11:26,240 Speaker 5: are there, even if the spirit may not be. So 173 00:11:26,760 --> 00:11:29,960 Speaker 5: I think there is scope to imagine extremes being turned down. 174 00:11:31,120 --> 00:11:36,720 Speaker 5: My concern is that the campaign itself was really not 175 00:11:36,760 --> 00:11:39,280 Speaker 5: what I would consider to be a good campaign. It 176 00:11:39,360 --> 00:11:42,040 Speaker 5: was full of I mean, even setting aside the whole 177 00:11:42,120 --> 00:11:44,720 Speaker 5: fake news, there was fake history. There was lots of 178 00:11:44,760 --> 00:11:47,160 Speaker 5: strange calls to you felt like you were voting for 179 00:11:47,200 --> 00:11:49,520 Speaker 5: the nineteen thirty of the nineteen forties or nineteen eighties. 180 00:11:49,679 --> 00:11:52,160 Speaker 5: There was a very little discussion about policy. So I 181 00:11:52,160 --> 00:11:54,800 Speaker 5: think we may get into a situation where the reckoning 182 00:11:54,880 --> 00:11:57,559 Speaker 5: of the parties and the elites comes a bit quicker 183 00:11:57,600 --> 00:12:01,439 Speaker 5: than the reckoning for the voters. It could be quite unstable, 184 00:12:01,920 --> 00:12:04,480 Speaker 5: and yes it may not last more than a year 185 00:12:04,480 --> 00:12:06,200 Speaker 5: when it comes time to put a budget together. But 186 00:12:06,280 --> 00:12:08,960 Speaker 5: right now I'm definitely more hopeful than I was a couple. 187 00:12:08,840 --> 00:12:09,240 Speaker 3: Of days ago. 188 00:12:09,360 --> 00:12:11,079 Speaker 2: Well, that's interesting about where we could be in a 189 00:12:11,160 --> 00:12:12,640 Speaker 2: year's time, which I want to go to in a minute. 190 00:12:12,679 --> 00:12:15,240 Speaker 2: But eleanor just to say that paint the scene for 191 00:12:15,320 --> 00:12:18,000 Speaker 2: us a little bit about how much leeway there would be. 192 00:12:18,200 --> 00:12:22,400 Speaker 2: I mean, Jean Claude is suggesting that the reality will 193 00:12:22,440 --> 00:12:26,079 Speaker 2: become quite clear that they would be unable to implement 194 00:12:26,360 --> 00:12:31,360 Speaker 2: certainly seriously expensive policies for the year. But what is 195 00:12:31,400 --> 00:12:34,080 Speaker 2: the situation that France is in and how much room 196 00:12:34,120 --> 00:12:35,240 Speaker 2: for maneuver is there. 197 00:12:35,120 --> 00:12:39,600 Speaker 1: On that food Well, the situation is France's public finances 198 00:12:39,600 --> 00:12:43,320 Speaker 1: are strained, that is, high, deficit is widen, interest payments 199 00:12:43,320 --> 00:12:47,920 Speaker 1: are increasing. It's already considered to be under the excessive 200 00:12:48,200 --> 00:12:49,360 Speaker 1: deficit procedure of the. 201 00:12:49,800 --> 00:12:54,800 Speaker 2: EU, violating the borrowing rules of the European Union exactly. 202 00:12:54,840 --> 00:12:58,520 Speaker 1: So deficit is lower than it's higher than three percent 203 00:12:58,679 --> 00:13:03,640 Speaker 1: and debt is increasing. So the previous government or still 204 00:13:03,840 --> 00:13:09,439 Speaker 1: current government this morning, has put together a very ambitious 205 00:13:09,440 --> 00:13:12,760 Speaker 1: program to try to tackle these problems and decrease a 206 00:13:12,760 --> 00:13:16,040 Speaker 1: deficit by twenty twenty seven and comply partially with their rules. 207 00:13:16,400 --> 00:13:19,120 Speaker 1: This being highly questioned because it's very ambitious, but it 208 00:13:19,320 --> 00:13:22,360 Speaker 1: was always the right direction. Now our viue is which 209 00:13:23,320 --> 00:13:26,720 Speaker 1: whichever coalision or type of government comes in power, there 210 00:13:26,800 --> 00:13:30,680 Speaker 1: is likely little effort to do any physical consolidation. So 211 00:13:30,840 --> 00:13:34,440 Speaker 1: the best will stay at the current baseline, which already 212 00:13:34,559 --> 00:13:40,640 Speaker 1: violates in the US. Now in the case of left 213 00:13:40,760 --> 00:13:45,000 Speaker 1: centric government, likely the sent the left willing systems some 214 00:13:45,080 --> 00:13:47,560 Speaker 1: fiscal spending, but it will have to be much more 215 00:13:48,360 --> 00:13:53,560 Speaker 1: moderate than the full NFP program. So for example, what 216 00:13:53,600 --> 00:13:56,079 Speaker 1: we estimate the NFP program could cost almost three percent 217 00:13:56,120 --> 00:14:00,400 Speaker 1: of GDP annually, and that would be the freeze the 218 00:14:00,400 --> 00:14:03,959 Speaker 1: deficits substantially by six bringing it to six point two 219 00:14:03,960 --> 00:14:08,559 Speaker 1: percent by twenty twenty seven, far away from the roofs. 220 00:14:08,760 --> 00:14:11,320 Speaker 1: So we if the spending is down to zero point 221 00:14:11,320 --> 00:14:15,120 Speaker 1: five percent of GDP, still that will have keep the 222 00:14:15,120 --> 00:14:18,320 Speaker 1: deficit wider than three percent and increase the debt to GDP. 223 00:14:18,960 --> 00:14:22,160 Speaker 1: So overall, although there is a little room for any 224 00:14:22,480 --> 00:14:26,640 Speaker 1: any fiscal spending, there is likely that there would be 225 00:14:26,680 --> 00:14:28,840 Speaker 1: some to keep everybody having a codition. 226 00:14:36,240 --> 00:14:40,040 Speaker 2: Bringing this grouping together and the kind of coalition building 227 00:14:40,120 --> 00:14:42,720 Speaker 2: or the sort of alliance that was forged last week. 228 00:14:43,120 --> 00:14:47,320 Speaker 2: Quite a few of mcfar's reforms were already put on hold, 229 00:14:47,320 --> 00:14:50,000 Speaker 2: including the pension reform. I mean, if you are you're 230 00:14:50,000 --> 00:14:55,520 Speaker 2: in the business community wondering about the underlying potential of France, 231 00:14:55,600 --> 00:14:58,160 Speaker 2: and so it's not One of the most important things 232 00:14:58,200 --> 00:15:00,120 Speaker 2: is sort of the long term, long term growth and 233 00:15:00,160 --> 00:15:04,680 Speaker 2: what that enables. Should that be the concern that even 234 00:15:04,720 --> 00:15:08,640 Speaker 2: with the maturing, even without expensive price tax, you won't 235 00:15:08,640 --> 00:15:10,240 Speaker 2: get difficult reforms either. 236 00:15:10,400 --> 00:15:13,000 Speaker 4: What I have to recognize is that during the seven 237 00:15:13,080 --> 00:15:19,160 Speaker 4: years of Macro and successive governments, we had quite good 238 00:15:19,840 --> 00:15:24,680 Speaker 4: policy as regards the micro economics. The I would say 239 00:15:24,760 --> 00:15:29,240 Speaker 4: attractiveness of the country, the new investment and so forth. 240 00:15:29,640 --> 00:15:33,880 Speaker 4: The diminishing of the unemployment has been quite spectacular. So 241 00:15:34,520 --> 00:15:40,200 Speaker 4: this part of the policies were in my opinion, very 242 00:15:40,280 --> 00:15:43,400 Speaker 4: much on the positive side. The problem was the I 243 00:15:43,400 --> 00:15:47,720 Speaker 4: would say, public spendings. What you just said, the way 244 00:15:48,600 --> 00:15:53,840 Speaker 4: we are not respecting the rules of Europe and also 245 00:15:54,280 --> 00:15:58,480 Speaker 4: the companies and with other countries that we're behaving quite 246 00:15:58,560 --> 00:16:02,280 Speaker 4: properly because they had a crisis after demand bother. So 247 00:16:02,640 --> 00:16:06,960 Speaker 4: that makes a mixed picture. If I may, it would 248 00:16:07,000 --> 00:16:10,960 Speaker 4: be in my opinion, extremely bad. Taking into account the 249 00:16:11,000 --> 00:16:17,080 Speaker 4: starting point to have additional new spendings, you could imagine 250 00:16:17,600 --> 00:16:20,880 Speaker 4: to have some kind of measures that we will not 251 00:16:21,000 --> 00:16:25,240 Speaker 4: be new spendings, but we would give certain satisfaction to 252 00:16:25,800 --> 00:16:32,520 Speaker 4: what I would say, qualify a Republican responsibility responsibilible left 253 00:16:33,400 --> 00:16:37,000 Speaker 4: and you see what I mean there. So it seems 254 00:16:37,000 --> 00:16:40,440 Speaker 4: to me that it's not totally impossible not to aggravate 255 00:16:40,880 --> 00:16:44,720 Speaker 4: the situation, which would be in any case very very bad, 256 00:16:44,800 --> 00:16:48,200 Speaker 4: because again, there is no home for maneuvering. And I 257 00:16:48,320 --> 00:16:51,480 Speaker 4: expect that the realization that there is no room for 258 00:16:51,520 --> 00:16:58,080 Speaker 4: maneuvering will progressively permit all the political parties leadership to 259 00:16:58,480 --> 00:17:03,240 Speaker 4: understand that they have no room for manewary, whatever their affiliation, 260 00:17:04,359 --> 00:17:08,399 Speaker 4: and including when they have signed a program on the 261 00:17:08,480 --> 00:17:14,880 Speaker 4: left side which is obviously extraordinay ball and obviously extraordinary 262 00:17:14,960 --> 00:17:19,560 Speaker 4: out of the situation taking into account again the starting point. 263 00:17:19,960 --> 00:17:22,679 Speaker 2: Yes, So eleanor do you think in terms of just 264 00:17:22,720 --> 00:17:26,680 Speaker 2: the cost of the micro slippage and the macro slippage. 265 00:17:26,960 --> 00:17:29,159 Speaker 1: Well, I think that if we look at the program 266 00:17:29,160 --> 00:17:32,080 Speaker 1: in the NFP, there is a lot of suggestion to 267 00:17:32,200 --> 00:17:38,840 Speaker 1: increased spending on public services, to increase transfers, also reversed 268 00:17:38,880 --> 00:17:43,360 Speaker 1: the pension reform and partially will be funded by increased axis. 269 00:17:43,640 --> 00:17:45,359 Speaker 1: What we see is that, yeah, there will be some 270 00:17:45,440 --> 00:17:48,119 Speaker 1: bushting and GDP in the short term because of increased 271 00:17:48,160 --> 00:17:51,600 Speaker 1: pending there's no parts on investments that will have longer 272 00:17:51,680 --> 00:17:55,640 Speaker 1: term impacts on the potential. Also, a reversal of the 273 00:17:55,680 --> 00:17:58,720 Speaker 1: pension reform and increasing labor costs could also harm the 274 00:17:58,840 --> 00:18:04,040 Speaker 1: labor supply. The other potsop is that they clearly stated 275 00:18:04,040 --> 00:18:06,520 Speaker 1: they're not willing to comply with the austerity rules of 276 00:18:06,560 --> 00:18:09,760 Speaker 1: the EU. So to what extent the whole NFB will 277 00:18:09,800 --> 00:18:13,240 Speaker 1: stand behind this statement will determine how much they will 278 00:18:13,280 --> 00:18:14,320 Speaker 1: moderate their policies. 279 00:18:14,560 --> 00:18:17,439 Speaker 2: I mean, the worry would be that a majority of 280 00:18:17,480 --> 00:18:21,840 Speaker 2: the French people have voted for radical, extreme solutions of 281 00:18:21,880 --> 00:18:25,760 Speaker 2: one kind or another last night, and if we end 282 00:18:25,840 --> 00:18:30,920 Speaker 2: up with a quote unquote reassuring combination, which is matured, 283 00:18:31,080 --> 00:18:33,720 Speaker 2: which is realized, there's no room for maneuver on many 284 00:18:33,760 --> 00:18:37,159 Speaker 2: of these things. The risk is that the French voters 285 00:18:37,240 --> 00:18:39,720 Speaker 2: draw the conclusion that they have to vote even more 286 00:18:39,760 --> 00:18:42,679 Speaker 2: emphatically for extreme because they've just ended up with the 287 00:18:42,720 --> 00:18:45,160 Speaker 2: same thing they didn't the one thing they didn't want 288 00:18:45,560 --> 00:18:48,479 Speaker 2: was a continuation of what they had. Would be the argument, 289 00:18:48,600 --> 00:18:51,040 Speaker 2: I mean, Leonel, what are the risks of. 290 00:18:51,080 --> 00:18:56,560 Speaker 5: That they're obviously present? That's true, I think though that 291 00:18:56,920 --> 00:18:59,520 Speaker 5: I mean, it's interesting to me that certain figures are 292 00:18:59,520 --> 00:19:03,600 Speaker 5: making it come back. Francois Land, who arguably pushed through 293 00:19:03,640 --> 00:19:06,240 Speaker 5: some of the reforms that Macworn benefited from, has now 294 00:19:06,280 --> 00:19:08,560 Speaker 5: made a kind of political comeback of sorts and is 295 00:19:08,600 --> 00:19:11,399 Speaker 5: even speaking out against me in Oshal, telling him to 296 00:19:11,440 --> 00:19:13,640 Speaker 5: keep quiet for for the sake of the left. Now, 297 00:19:13,760 --> 00:19:15,960 Speaker 5: obviously the left has changed, and I don't think it 298 00:19:16,000 --> 00:19:19,400 Speaker 5: would be the same kind of left if Hansoiland was 299 00:19:19,480 --> 00:19:21,439 Speaker 5: to get a position of power. But I think the 300 00:19:21,440 --> 00:19:23,919 Speaker 5: constraints that we're talking about are real, they will be felt. 301 00:19:24,720 --> 00:19:28,840 Speaker 5: Maybe this this technocratic idea, even if a technocratic government 302 00:19:28,920 --> 00:19:31,560 Speaker 5: is definitely not on the cards and not a normal 303 00:19:31,560 --> 00:19:35,320 Speaker 5: French solution, it would be interesting to me if certain positions, 304 00:19:35,760 --> 00:19:37,960 Speaker 5: if there was a desire to reach out and find 305 00:19:38,040 --> 00:19:42,240 Speaker 5: certain a political figures, maybe former central bank governments I 306 00:19:42,240 --> 00:19:44,919 Speaker 5: don't know present company accepted, but people who do have 307 00:19:44,960 --> 00:19:49,480 Speaker 5: credibility in certain areas like the economy, to ease some 308 00:19:49,560 --> 00:19:53,359 Speaker 5: of these tensions, because even beyond fiscal spending, there are 309 00:19:53,359 --> 00:19:58,280 Speaker 5: deep seated problems in France productivity, innovation, demographics. I mean, 310 00:19:58,560 --> 00:20:01,040 Speaker 5: these are these are real and if we have no 311 00:20:01,119 --> 00:20:04,040 Speaker 5: ambition and it's just a government of convenience, that says 312 00:20:04,520 --> 00:20:07,359 Speaker 5: let's cut here and spend a bit there, We're not 313 00:20:07,359 --> 00:20:09,399 Speaker 5: going to solve it. So I hope again, my hope 314 00:20:09,440 --> 00:20:12,240 Speaker 5: is that at some point the politics does have to 315 00:20:12,280 --> 00:20:14,040 Speaker 5: take a bike a step back on some areage. 316 00:20:14,080 --> 00:20:18,560 Speaker 2: I guess strong plot. We should just check it. You available, No, 317 00:20:19,560 --> 00:20:21,840 Speaker 2: I noticed that you are almost exactly the same age 318 00:20:21,840 --> 00:20:29,400 Speaker 2: as Joe Biden. For you, don't you think that there 319 00:20:29,440 --> 00:20:31,919 Speaker 2: has to be some I mean, if you would say, 320 00:20:32,720 --> 00:20:35,600 Speaker 2: and I think that Marie Napenn would say this, and 321 00:20:35,640 --> 00:20:37,760 Speaker 2: indeed we should remember she got the same share of 322 00:20:37,760 --> 00:20:42,959 Speaker 2: the vote as Kastama's Labor Party. People have voted for change, 323 00:20:43,280 --> 00:20:45,840 Speaker 2: and if you're trying to respond to that and trying 324 00:20:45,920 --> 00:20:48,840 Speaker 2: to prevent a move to the extremes, whether it's in 325 00:20:48,880 --> 00:20:52,080 Speaker 2: a year or an extreme government within a year or 326 00:20:52,119 --> 00:20:56,680 Speaker 2: within three years. Is the lesson of this that at 327 00:20:56,760 --> 00:20:58,840 Speaker 2: some level there has to be a shift to the left. 328 00:20:58,840 --> 00:21:00,879 Speaker 2: I mean, that's partly what leone saying. I mean, what 329 00:21:00,920 --> 00:21:07,879 Speaker 2: would be a symbolic but significant move that could be 330 00:21:07,960 --> 00:21:11,119 Speaker 2: made as that sort of olive branch to the voters 331 00:21:11,160 --> 00:21:13,960 Speaker 2: who actually feel something has to change. 332 00:21:13,760 --> 00:21:17,200 Speaker 4: The main problem is that, as we said, the country 333 00:21:17,480 --> 00:21:22,159 Speaker 4: looks like being divided in three thirds, and two of 334 00:21:22,240 --> 00:21:25,920 Speaker 4: the extreme thirds are totally at odds. So we are 335 00:21:25,960 --> 00:21:28,639 Speaker 4: not in a situation where you can say the people 336 00:21:28,680 --> 00:21:33,000 Speaker 4: wants changes and we will give them changes, because the 337 00:21:33,119 --> 00:21:37,959 Speaker 4: changes in question are exactly at the opposite on major, 338 00:21:38,240 --> 00:21:43,840 Speaker 4: major major points. So we are bound. And it's more 339 00:21:44,200 --> 00:21:46,760 Speaker 4: one of the first time with the Fifth Republic to 340 00:21:46,960 --> 00:21:51,440 Speaker 4: find out a way to get from that position. And 341 00:21:51,840 --> 00:21:55,040 Speaker 4: my hope, as I said, is that if you take 342 00:21:55,240 --> 00:22:01,840 Speaker 4: the Republican component of the Parliament, you have the theoretical 343 00:22:01,960 --> 00:22:07,040 Speaker 4: possibility of having something which would be representative of the 344 00:22:07,080 --> 00:22:10,760 Speaker 4: people because it represents something like a little bit more 345 00:22:11,000 --> 00:22:13,840 Speaker 4: than the absolute majority when you add up to the 346 00:22:13,960 --> 00:22:17,760 Speaker 4: Republicans on the one hand, and the Socialist Party is 347 00:22:17,800 --> 00:22:22,119 Speaker 4: said to oversimplify on the other hand. So again everybody 348 00:22:22,160 --> 00:22:26,719 Speaker 4: now has to reflect mature, as I said, make up 349 00:22:26,760 --> 00:22:29,720 Speaker 4: his mind, not only of course, the leadership of the 350 00:22:29,720 --> 00:22:33,080 Speaker 4: political parties, but the people of France. The people of France, 351 00:22:33,160 --> 00:22:35,880 Speaker 4: they are not stupid. They prove that they were not stupid. 352 00:22:36,119 --> 00:22:39,520 Speaker 4: They want to changes, but not to that extreme that 353 00:22:39,600 --> 00:22:42,920 Speaker 4: they would have rocked totally the boat. So they might 354 00:22:43,000 --> 00:22:48,480 Speaker 4: reflect themselves on what is happening and I also would 355 00:22:48,520 --> 00:22:52,879 Speaker 4: bet on the common sense and the responsible I would say, 356 00:22:52,920 --> 00:22:56,240 Speaker 4: attitude of our own Fero citizens. 357 00:22:56,480 --> 00:22:58,960 Speaker 2: Leona, what do you think of the solution, particularly bringing 358 00:22:58,960 --> 00:23:02,520 Speaker 2: with the Republicans who were not necessarily the great winners 359 00:23:02,520 --> 00:23:05,640 Speaker 2: of last night's election. How do you think that people 360 00:23:05,640 --> 00:23:06,560 Speaker 2: would respond to that? 361 00:23:07,000 --> 00:23:07,760 Speaker 3: I think it's tough. 362 00:23:08,119 --> 00:23:10,360 Speaker 5: I do wonder though, what if we had to find 363 00:23:10,359 --> 00:23:12,639 Speaker 5: a lowest common denominator between all of these parties, what 364 00:23:12,680 --> 00:23:15,240 Speaker 5: would it be? I mean, I think clearly taxation, right, 365 00:23:15,280 --> 00:23:17,159 Speaker 5: taxes are going up, there's going to have to be 366 00:23:17,200 --> 00:23:19,840 Speaker 5: some kind of concession right on on the wealth tax, 367 00:23:21,000 --> 00:23:23,200 Speaker 5: on you know, some of the some of the tax 368 00:23:23,359 --> 00:23:28,399 Speaker 5: proposals on on reforms. I just can't see the pension 369 00:23:28,440 --> 00:23:31,560 Speaker 5: reform being rolled back. But already Gabriel Attal who's proven 370 00:23:31,600 --> 00:23:35,440 Speaker 5: to be the comeback kid and the real political discovery 371 00:23:35,440 --> 00:23:39,359 Speaker 5: of this, of this whole saga, because he has fecually 372 00:23:39,400 --> 00:23:42,040 Speaker 5: broken with Maccorn, emancipating himself from Macorn to build this 373 00:23:42,400 --> 00:23:45,080 Speaker 5: potentially this coalition. And he was the one apparently who 374 00:23:45,160 --> 00:23:48,439 Speaker 5: said well let's let's suspend this welfare benefit reformers as 375 00:23:48,440 --> 00:23:50,840 Speaker 5: a gest to the left. So there are gestures to 376 00:23:50,840 --> 00:23:54,840 Speaker 5: make I think even even with with with le Penn 377 00:23:54,920 --> 00:23:57,600 Speaker 5: there was it wasn't even extreme change, right. The whole 378 00:23:57,600 --> 00:24:00,600 Speaker 5: bet was that there'd be some melonification, that she would 379 00:24:00,600 --> 00:24:03,280 Speaker 5: be surrounded by experts and technocrats and it wouldn't be 380 00:24:03,280 --> 00:24:05,600 Speaker 5: the extreme. Well, I think now we have to accept that. 381 00:24:05,640 --> 00:24:07,240 Speaker 5: You know, there's a Maloney scenario on the right and 382 00:24:07,240 --> 00:24:09,880 Speaker 5: there's a Starmer scenario on the left. And the real 383 00:24:09,960 --> 00:24:12,520 Speaker 5: fight over the next few days is to see what 384 00:24:12,520 --> 00:24:15,240 Speaker 5: what will it take, How how aggressively will sparks fly 385 00:24:15,840 --> 00:24:19,560 Speaker 5: to carve off the Republican left from Minoshal. That's the 386 00:24:19,680 --> 00:24:20,160 Speaker 5: that's the fight. 387 00:24:20,359 --> 00:24:23,440 Speaker 2: Do you see individual figures coming out of this, whether 388 00:24:23,480 --> 00:24:29,320 Speaker 2: it's Gabriel Lettel or Lusman. Do you identify future leaders 389 00:24:29,320 --> 00:24:32,399 Speaker 2: of some kind of coalition in the current spectrum? 390 00:24:32,920 --> 00:24:35,160 Speaker 4: You mean the new prime ministry. 391 00:24:35,200 --> 00:24:37,960 Speaker 2: Well in terms of but also in terms of being 392 00:24:38,000 --> 00:24:42,119 Speaker 2: a potential rallying point for some kind of I mean 393 00:24:42,160 --> 00:24:45,080 Speaker 2: the discussion that the phrase was parliamentary arc but I 394 00:24:45,080 --> 00:24:48,720 Speaker 2: mean not just for the bargaining now, but also as 395 00:24:48,720 --> 00:24:52,560 Speaker 2: a potential candidate in four years time. I mean that's 396 00:24:52,600 --> 00:24:53,960 Speaker 2: also something we're looking for. 397 00:24:54,800 --> 00:24:57,880 Speaker 4: Are we not pronounced on the countdates? Three years time 398 00:24:57,960 --> 00:25:01,040 Speaker 4: or two years and a half, would not embark on 399 00:25:01,280 --> 00:25:05,360 Speaker 4: any kind of I would say speculation on the way 400 00:25:05,400 --> 00:25:08,720 Speaker 4: it will proceed, but at a time after sufficient maturing 401 00:25:08,840 --> 00:25:11,080 Speaker 4: and then the primary. The President of the Republic has 402 00:25:11,119 --> 00:25:14,200 Speaker 4: a role to play because they will consult all political 403 00:25:14,240 --> 00:25:18,920 Speaker 4: parties without exception, and it would also create the sentiment 404 00:25:19,000 --> 00:25:23,119 Speaker 4: that things are more fluid than we might have thought. 405 00:25:23,680 --> 00:25:25,920 Speaker 4: But all that being said, it seems to me that 406 00:25:27,480 --> 00:25:32,920 Speaker 4: clearly there should be some kind of discussion for I 407 00:25:32,920 --> 00:25:37,679 Speaker 4: would say, some kind of id majority or coalition that 408 00:25:37,800 --> 00:25:41,320 Speaker 4: would last for a certain period of time between again 409 00:25:41,720 --> 00:25:46,680 Speaker 4: what I call the Republican left, the Republican right, and 410 00:25:46,720 --> 00:25:50,119 Speaker 4: the center, and you identify very clearly who would be 411 00:25:50,200 --> 00:25:58,200 Speaker 4: the negotiating parties there. I agree that it's clear that 412 00:25:58,400 --> 00:26:02,520 Speaker 4: a new program has to be set up. This new program, 413 00:26:02,800 --> 00:26:06,680 Speaker 4: in my hope, would not comprehend any kind of net 414 00:26:06,840 --> 00:26:09,960 Speaker 4: additional spending, because I share entirely of views that you 415 00:26:10,080 --> 00:26:13,040 Speaker 4: expressed on the fact that there is no room for manualing, 416 00:26:13,119 --> 00:26:16,159 Speaker 4: absolutely no room for manuring, not only in terms of 417 00:26:16,720 --> 00:26:20,280 Speaker 4: I would say europe and European roles, but also no 418 00:26:20,400 --> 00:26:24,159 Speaker 4: room for manuring in terms of preserving as much as 419 00:26:24,240 --> 00:26:27,479 Speaker 4: possible the credit worthiness of the signature, and that is 420 00:26:27,560 --> 00:26:32,560 Speaker 4: extremely important. That being said, of course, you have measures 421 00:26:32,560 --> 00:26:36,000 Speaker 4: that can be taken without having a cost, and that 422 00:26:36,240 --> 00:26:40,760 Speaker 4: might permit the I would say left on the one 423 00:26:40,800 --> 00:26:44,600 Speaker 4: hand and the center right on the other hand, to 424 00:26:44,680 --> 00:26:49,280 Speaker 4: be reasonably satisfied in the circumstances. So it is my hope, 425 00:26:49,480 --> 00:26:52,160 Speaker 4: but it is also my expectations, because I don't see 426 00:26:52,200 --> 00:26:55,400 Speaker 4: anything else to permit the country to proceed. 427 00:27:00,600 --> 00:27:04,120 Speaker 2: That's a good spot to leave it for some questions 428 00:27:04,200 --> 00:27:08,760 Speaker 2: from the audience or indeed any of the Bloomberg people here, Yes, 429 00:27:08,840 --> 00:27:09,920 Speaker 2: in the back there. 430 00:27:10,040 --> 00:27:14,320 Speaker 3: Hell, you mentioned a couple of times measures that now 431 00:27:14,440 --> 00:27:18,880 Speaker 3: course that could please their left wing Republican parties. Could 432 00:27:18,960 --> 00:27:21,640 Speaker 3: you name a couple of them that you may expect? 433 00:27:22,920 --> 00:27:26,680 Speaker 4: No, No, I'm not rapping the new program. I'm sorry. Well, 434 00:27:27,119 --> 00:27:29,360 Speaker 4: but my neighbors can do. 435 00:27:29,400 --> 00:27:31,600 Speaker 2: That, eleanor can think of anything. 436 00:27:31,960 --> 00:27:35,240 Speaker 1: It's a bit difficult to thing of them maybe not doing, 437 00:27:35,280 --> 00:27:38,720 Speaker 1: for example, the unemployment reform, the unemployment benefits reform. It's 438 00:27:38,760 --> 00:27:41,440 Speaker 1: in a way not adding benefits. 439 00:27:41,480 --> 00:27:43,920 Speaker 2: What is it just those who does follow all of 440 00:27:43,960 --> 00:27:45,960 Speaker 2: the reforms, which what would that be? What is that? 441 00:27:46,240 --> 00:27:51,639 Speaker 1: So the current government has agreed to do any unemployment 442 00:27:51,680 --> 00:27:55,679 Speaker 1: benefits reform that would start in July right now, and 443 00:27:55,720 --> 00:27:58,399 Speaker 1: that will decrease the duration of the unemployment benefits and 444 00:27:58,440 --> 00:28:02,679 Speaker 1: also tighten the rules for being eligible for unemployment benefits. 445 00:28:02,800 --> 00:28:04,720 Speaker 1: And the estimate of the government was that these will 446 00:28:04,760 --> 00:28:10,679 Speaker 1: add three point six billions of savings annually, So not 447 00:28:10,920 --> 00:28:15,680 Speaker 1: doing that would keep the would have no impact because 448 00:28:15,720 --> 00:28:18,359 Speaker 1: currently it's not accounted in our in the baseline, so 449 00:28:18,480 --> 00:28:21,639 Speaker 1: the MF baseline or our baseline, but will keep the 450 00:28:22,160 --> 00:28:22,720 Speaker 1: left happy. 451 00:28:23,600 --> 00:28:26,200 Speaker 2: Jacqueline Simmons, he runs our European coverage. 452 00:28:26,960 --> 00:28:31,679 Speaker 6: There have been steps forward with respect to incentivizing the 453 00:28:31,760 --> 00:28:34,800 Speaker 6: finance and business community, which I think is reflected in 454 00:28:34,840 --> 00:28:37,119 Speaker 6: this room today just in the way of you know 455 00:28:37,160 --> 00:28:41,240 Speaker 6: again incentives and also centering Paris as a sort of 456 00:28:41,680 --> 00:28:45,480 Speaker 6: financial hub post brexit. And I just wondered when any 457 00:28:45,520 --> 00:28:50,480 Speaker 6: of you thought about what kind of paralyzing impact this 458 00:28:50,760 --> 00:28:54,719 Speaker 6: might have, or last night's results might have on this community. 459 00:28:55,000 --> 00:28:57,960 Speaker 1: Well, in my view, the first question is what will 460 00:28:58,000 --> 00:29:00,600 Speaker 1: be the labor costs in the future, What will be 461 00:29:00,640 --> 00:29:02,280 Speaker 1: the spending in terms of labor cost well, then going 462 00:29:02,320 --> 00:29:05,320 Speaker 1: to increase or not if we embark into more left 463 00:29:05,320 --> 00:29:09,360 Speaker 1: wing policies that's likely to happen. Also, what will happen 464 00:29:09,360 --> 00:29:13,640 Speaker 1: with the labor force supply in general, what will happen 465 00:29:13,680 --> 00:29:16,320 Speaker 1: with the rest of the reforms on the the incentivize 466 00:29:16,320 --> 00:29:19,560 Speaker 1: people to get back into the into the workforce. But 467 00:29:19,640 --> 00:29:22,080 Speaker 1: also there is a there is a question of how 468 00:29:22,080 --> 00:29:25,480 Speaker 1: the markets will react to this uncertainty. And for example, 469 00:29:26,240 --> 00:29:30,680 Speaker 1: with lingering potay of fiscal slippage and this political uncertainty, 470 00:29:30,760 --> 00:29:36,320 Speaker 1: we expect that markets may spreads might stay wide as 471 00:29:36,320 --> 00:29:38,800 Speaker 1: the current at the current levels for a bit longer 472 00:29:38,880 --> 00:29:41,360 Speaker 1: until things settle down or in the case that there 473 00:29:41,440 --> 00:29:47,160 Speaker 1: is any more likely to spend more left wing spending, 474 00:29:47,320 --> 00:29:50,360 Speaker 1: then spreads even my White's further by for example fifty 475 00:29:50,400 --> 00:29:53,400 Speaker 1: basis points compared to the current levels. That creates uncertainty 476 00:29:54,320 --> 00:29:58,440 Speaker 1: and will make markets to look to be careful in 477 00:29:58,520 --> 00:30:00,959 Speaker 1: the coming days in the weeks. 478 00:30:01,560 --> 00:30:04,000 Speaker 2: Jactor, where do you think people who are moving to 479 00:30:04,040 --> 00:30:05,280 Speaker 2: France who stayed here? 480 00:30:06,080 --> 00:30:09,640 Speaker 4: I would say, first of all, let's take also into 481 00:30:09,680 --> 00:30:13,400 Speaker 4: account the fact that the worst has been avoided in 482 00:30:13,480 --> 00:30:21,960 Speaker 4: terms of frightening newcomers and or investors savers of France, 483 00:30:22,040 --> 00:30:25,440 Speaker 4: Europe and the entire world. So that's something which we 484 00:30:25,440 --> 00:30:29,800 Speaker 4: should not forget. Second, I would say that all will 485 00:30:29,840 --> 00:30:34,480 Speaker 4: depend precisely on this maturing process. I was mentioning which 486 00:30:34,480 --> 00:30:37,600 Speaker 4: is a multi party and I would say multi citizens 487 00:30:38,440 --> 00:30:45,400 Speaker 4: naturing process. So we will see again. I am reasonably optimistic, 488 00:30:45,480 --> 00:30:49,120 Speaker 4: as you could see. But of course, when you take 489 00:30:49,120 --> 00:30:51,840 Speaker 4: a decision, you want to take your decision on the 490 00:30:51,840 --> 00:30:56,120 Speaker 4: basis of facts, and we will see how things are 491 00:30:56,200 --> 00:31:01,560 Speaker 4: moving from now on. Again, it seems to me that 492 00:31:01,680 --> 00:31:06,960 Speaker 4: there is some kind of common sense solutions that would 493 00:31:07,000 --> 00:31:11,200 Speaker 4: normally please all parties concerned and be the best for 494 00:31:11,280 --> 00:31:14,840 Speaker 4: our fellow citizens. But because after all, a democracy must 495 00:31:15,080 --> 00:31:18,560 Speaker 4: give the maximum amount of satisfaction to the fedow citizens. 496 00:31:19,200 --> 00:31:19,680 Speaker 2: But it is. 497 00:31:19,640 --> 00:31:24,680 Speaker 4: Absolutely clear that programs that are not visible in any 498 00:31:24,760 --> 00:31:28,600 Speaker 4: case are doing a lot of harm to the Fedow citizen. 499 00:31:28,680 --> 00:31:32,360 Speaker 4: I was myself experiencing that because when we had the 500 00:31:32,440 --> 00:31:37,160 Speaker 4: crisis in Europe, have to say that those that have 501 00:31:37,280 --> 00:31:40,880 Speaker 4: been spenders and spenders and spenders had to tell their 502 00:31:40,880 --> 00:31:43,240 Speaker 4: fellow citizens we are very sorry, but now you have 503 00:31:43,320 --> 00:31:47,080 Speaker 4: to tighten your belt your belts, and that is very 504 00:31:47,160 --> 00:31:52,360 Speaker 4: very difficult, it is terrible. So again, being really reasonable 505 00:31:53,200 --> 00:31:56,440 Speaker 4: is something which is very important for our fellow citizens. 506 00:31:56,760 --> 00:32:00,560 Speaker 4: And they expect again that this very complex s meduling 507 00:32:00,560 --> 00:32:02,440 Speaker 4: process we'll proceed from no One. 508 00:32:03,080 --> 00:32:06,760 Speaker 5: Yeah, no, I guess it will obviously not come as 509 00:32:06,800 --> 00:32:10,040 Speaker 5: easily to a left government than it did to mac 510 00:32:10,080 --> 00:32:12,600 Speaker 5: Horn to do things like the Choose France summit, and 511 00:32:12,680 --> 00:32:14,880 Speaker 5: even to talk about the Capital Markets Union. I think, 512 00:32:15,320 --> 00:32:17,240 Speaker 5: you know, that does not seem to be part of 513 00:32:17,280 --> 00:32:20,080 Speaker 5: the part of the current speech. If we think of 514 00:32:20,160 --> 00:32:23,320 Speaker 5: the kind of extreme case, it's in the nineteen eighties 515 00:32:23,360 --> 00:32:27,440 Speaker 5: when Mitihont came to power, there were nationalizations and its appropriations. 516 00:32:27,480 --> 00:32:31,160 Speaker 5: Obviously we're not talking about that. And I guess we 517 00:32:31,200 --> 00:32:33,520 Speaker 5: could also think, well where, you know, if it is 518 00:32:33,560 --> 00:32:36,680 Speaker 5: just a question of changing city every few years, where 519 00:32:36,760 --> 00:32:39,440 Speaker 5: do people go. I mean, this is a global phenomenon, 520 00:32:39,520 --> 00:32:43,200 Speaker 5: a European phenomenon. It's interesting to me that in Italy 521 00:32:43,640 --> 00:32:45,840 Speaker 5: you still have all of these tax breaks to attract 522 00:32:46,080 --> 00:32:49,400 Speaker 5: foreign investors in hedge fund managers, even with a right 523 00:32:49,440 --> 00:32:54,200 Speaker 5: wing populist coalition. So and also I think even the 524 00:32:54,280 --> 00:32:58,840 Speaker 5: Left Bloc talked about being open to defense fiscal integration 525 00:32:58,840 --> 00:33:01,360 Speaker 5: at the European level, but with defense as the hook. 526 00:33:01,840 --> 00:33:04,600 Speaker 5: So there are some I think avenues to kind of 527 00:33:04,600 --> 00:33:06,760 Speaker 5: incite investment, but I think it will obviously not be 528 00:33:07,720 --> 00:33:11,040 Speaker 5: with the same supply side focus as McCaul has been 529 00:33:11,080 --> 00:33:11,400 Speaker 5: so far. 530 00:33:11,480 --> 00:33:13,320 Speaker 2: If you pull back the lens from a from a 531 00:33:13,320 --> 00:33:19,240 Speaker 2: global investing standpoint, and indeed a geopolitical standpoint. No. Bloomberg 532 00:33:19,280 --> 00:33:24,560 Speaker 2: Economics has done important research showing how Europe as a 533 00:33:24,600 --> 00:33:27,680 Speaker 2: group has fallen behind the US and its economic potential 534 00:33:27,720 --> 00:33:29,800 Speaker 2: over the last ten years as a twenty nearly twenty 535 00:33:29,840 --> 00:33:32,160 Speaker 2: percent gap that's open up on course to be a 536 00:33:32,240 --> 00:33:35,840 Speaker 2: forty percent gap in the future if there's no improvement 537 00:33:35,920 --> 00:33:38,280 Speaker 2: in the underlying fundamentals, the kind of things that you 538 00:33:38,320 --> 00:33:44,360 Speaker 2: would need to do to untap the kind of investment needed, 539 00:33:44,400 --> 00:33:48,600 Speaker 2: because it seems it's investment that's the gap is capital 540 00:33:48,640 --> 00:33:54,880 Speaker 2: markets union is potentially joint debt issuance to underpin investments 541 00:33:54,920 --> 00:33:58,400 Speaker 2: in green technologies, all of these things that we talk about, 542 00:33:58,400 --> 00:34:03,160 Speaker 2: the digitalization of the economy, encouraging more high tech successes. 543 00:34:04,400 --> 00:34:08,080 Speaker 2: In confronting a US government which under whatever president, is 544 00:34:08,080 --> 00:34:12,440 Speaker 2: going to be pushing money into industrial policy and forging 545 00:34:12,480 --> 00:34:18,200 Speaker 2: a very different, perhaps more interventionist, more mercantilist economic policy. 546 00:34:18,719 --> 00:34:21,360 Speaker 2: Before this election, we would have said that the big 547 00:34:22,120 --> 00:34:25,200 Speaker 2: question mark around whether Europe could possibly do that is 548 00:34:25,239 --> 00:34:28,759 Speaker 2: the Franco German weakness, is the weakness of that relationship, 549 00:34:28,800 --> 00:34:30,520 Speaker 2: but also the fact of the two of the two 550 00:34:30,600 --> 00:34:36,320 Speaker 2: leaders present, Macon and Olaf Schultz, both both being extremely weak. 551 00:34:36,760 --> 00:34:39,520 Speaker 2: I mean that doesn't change, Jean Claud. I mean, if 552 00:34:39,520 --> 00:34:41,600 Speaker 2: you are looking to Europe to have to actually step 553 00:34:41,719 --> 00:34:44,440 Speaker 2: up and do things over the next few years in 554 00:34:44,480 --> 00:34:49,760 Speaker 2: response to China and the US, that seems less likely, 555 00:34:50,440 --> 00:34:52,799 Speaker 2: even less likely now than a week ago, or just 556 00:34:52,800 --> 00:34:53,480 Speaker 2: as unlikely. 557 00:34:53,680 --> 00:34:56,080 Speaker 4: It doesn't seem to be unlikely at all, to be Frank, 558 00:34:56,160 --> 00:35:00,000 Speaker 4: because there is a recognition, there is a joint diagnosis 559 00:35:00,080 --> 00:35:03,239 Speaker 4: on the fact that we cannot stay as we are 560 00:35:03,680 --> 00:35:06,080 Speaker 4: with the US on the one hand and China on 561 00:35:06,080 --> 00:35:09,320 Speaker 4: the other hand, on a number of very very important 562 00:35:09,640 --> 00:35:14,960 Speaker 4: issues like high tech, like the platforms, the digital digitalization 563 00:35:15,160 --> 00:35:17,680 Speaker 4: of our continent, and so forth and so forth. So 564 00:35:18,160 --> 00:35:23,440 Speaker 4: I think that this is the underlying diagnosis which is present, 565 00:35:23,840 --> 00:35:27,360 Speaker 4: which is recognized more or less by the various countries 566 00:35:27,440 --> 00:35:31,280 Speaker 4: concern whether or not with this result of this election, 567 00:35:32,040 --> 00:35:35,880 Speaker 4: the cooperation between Germany, France and all others will be 568 00:35:36,120 --> 00:35:39,719 Speaker 4: oversimplified or over complicated. We will see you again I'm 569 00:35:39,719 --> 00:35:44,160 Speaker 4: not necessarily pessimistic, but the fact is that it was 570 00:35:44,200 --> 00:35:46,959 Speaker 4: not working very well. But we just addressed the question 571 00:35:47,080 --> 00:35:49,880 Speaker 4: of eighty one and the program of eighty one. I 572 00:35:49,960 --> 00:35:53,000 Speaker 4: only want to remind all of us when the Left 573 00:35:53,040 --> 00:35:59,560 Speaker 4: came in power in eighty one, we had overall outstanding 574 00:35:59,600 --> 00:36:02,440 Speaker 4: debt as a proportion of GDP of twenty percent of 575 00:36:02,480 --> 00:36:05,120 Speaker 4: the GDP. We are at tw one hundred and eleven 576 00:36:05,160 --> 00:36:09,640 Speaker 4: percent of GDP. We had a deficit of minus zero 577 00:36:09,840 --> 00:36:14,279 Speaker 4: point one percent of the GDP. We had minus five 578 00:36:14,280 --> 00:36:18,000 Speaker 4: point five or something. So we are in a very 579 00:36:18,040 --> 00:36:22,440 Speaker 4: difficult different situation and we have to take account, of course, 580 00:36:22,480 --> 00:36:24,719 Speaker 4: of that. It seems to be very important now on 581 00:36:24,760 --> 00:36:28,680 Speaker 4: what you said on the US versus Europe. You are 582 00:36:28,960 --> 00:36:33,480 Speaker 4: right in terms of absolute GDP and absolute GDP per capita. 583 00:36:33,680 --> 00:36:36,239 Speaker 4: But part of the difference between the US and US 584 00:36:36,560 --> 00:36:40,640 Speaker 4: is that the European, for their own I would say sake, 585 00:36:41,080 --> 00:36:45,880 Speaker 4: prefer not to work too much. And this is true 586 00:36:46,040 --> 00:36:49,120 Speaker 4: in all European countries. I was surprimed myself to read 587 00:36:49,239 --> 00:36:51,920 Speaker 4: check with Germany, and in Germany you have a lot 588 00:36:52,000 --> 00:36:55,880 Speaker 4: of part time jobs. That makes all taken into account, 589 00:36:56,239 --> 00:36:59,319 Speaker 4: the number of our work quite miserable in comparison with 590 00:36:59,360 --> 00:37:02,040 Speaker 4: the US and the same or less and certainly the 591 00:37:02,080 --> 00:37:04,080 Speaker 4: same in the UK too. I mean, we we are 592 00:37:04,440 --> 00:37:07,239 Speaker 4: living in a different universal disrespect and of course it 593 00:37:07,280 --> 00:37:09,640 Speaker 4: makes an enormous difference. But when I look at the 594 00:37:09,640 --> 00:37:15,360 Speaker 4: best countries in Europe and the productivity our works, the 595 00:37:15,440 --> 00:37:19,520 Speaker 4: difference is not that big. And also we have to 596 00:37:19,560 --> 00:37:21,840 Speaker 4: take into account, of course that a lot of European 597 00:37:21,840 --> 00:37:26,759 Speaker 4: countries are catching up even on the best European not 598 00:37:27,000 --> 00:37:32,120 Speaker 4: necessarily on the best European states, So all American states 599 00:37:32,320 --> 00:37:34,920 Speaker 4: all taken into account. I think that we should not 600 00:37:36,000 --> 00:37:39,919 Speaker 4: overdo the difference between the US and Europe, even if 601 00:37:40,120 --> 00:37:45,600 Speaker 4: they are absolutely clear. I would say elements and sectors 602 00:37:45,840 --> 00:37:49,160 Speaker 4: where we are absolutely miserable and we have to work 603 00:37:49,280 --> 00:37:53,560 Speaker 4: on not being that miserable in the London all right. 604 00:37:53,400 --> 00:37:56,000 Speaker 2: Well, a final question from Alan Katzachi. 605 00:37:57,600 --> 00:38:00,400 Speaker 7: You mentioned Jeanie, You mentioned that lady, and I'd like 606 00:38:00,440 --> 00:38:03,680 Speaker 7: to go back a little bit further. You also talked 607 00:38:03,680 --> 00:38:05,759 Speaker 7: about how the president will have to meet with every 608 00:38:05,760 --> 00:38:08,280 Speaker 7: single political party. There has to be a maturing process. 609 00:38:08,840 --> 00:38:12,719 Speaker 7: Everything you say reminds me of what the French rejected, 610 00:38:12,760 --> 00:38:15,839 Speaker 7: which was the Fourth Republic before Charles de gaup put 611 00:38:15,920 --> 00:38:18,200 Speaker 7: in the Fifth Republic. You know, we had this constant 612 00:38:18,719 --> 00:38:22,320 Speaker 7: negotiation with various parties in Parliament. It was an unstable situation. 613 00:38:22,840 --> 00:38:25,480 Speaker 7: In what way is it the same now as it 614 00:38:25,640 --> 00:38:27,920 Speaker 7: was pre nineteen fifty eight and in what ways is 615 00:38:27,920 --> 00:38:28,400 Speaker 7: it different. 616 00:38:30,680 --> 00:38:33,680 Speaker 4: First of all, the President of the Republic has powers 617 00:38:34,239 --> 00:38:38,120 Speaker 4: that the President of the Fourth Republic had not, so 618 00:38:38,200 --> 00:38:42,120 Speaker 4: that is very clear. In particular in appointing the Prime Minister, 619 00:38:42,320 --> 00:38:45,800 Speaker 4: it's a decision of the President of the Republic himself 620 00:38:45,960 --> 00:38:51,839 Speaker 4: according to the Constitution. We also have to recognize that 621 00:38:51,880 --> 00:38:56,120 Speaker 4: the Fourth Republic didn't do such a bad job, all 622 00:38:56,160 --> 00:38:58,759 Speaker 4: taken into account, of course, the main problem of the 623 00:38:58,800 --> 00:39:03,440 Speaker 4: Fourth Republic it was in impossible for them to i 624 00:39:03,440 --> 00:39:08,160 Speaker 4: would say, face up with the Algerian War, and the 625 00:39:08,200 --> 00:39:11,600 Speaker 4: Fifth Republic came out of this absolutely capacity of the 626 00:39:11,600 --> 00:39:14,919 Speaker 4: Fourth Republic to face up with that war. But all 627 00:39:14,960 --> 00:39:19,160 Speaker 4: taken into account in the economic and functionial sphere, and 628 00:39:19,239 --> 00:39:22,759 Speaker 4: even in the defense sphere, because the nuclear deterrent of 629 00:39:22,800 --> 00:39:27,160 Speaker 4: France started under the Fourth Republic. So all taken in 630 00:39:27,200 --> 00:39:29,880 Speaker 4: all the res taken into account, it was not that 631 00:39:30,760 --> 00:39:36,719 Speaker 4: such a poor political system. So if we are we 632 00:39:37,040 --> 00:39:39,400 Speaker 4: won't be closer to the Fourth Republic in my opinion, 633 00:39:39,440 --> 00:39:43,759 Speaker 4: because of the institutions of the Fifth Republic, but we 634 00:39:43,840 --> 00:39:47,239 Speaker 4: would be closer perhaps to other European As a matter 635 00:39:47,320 --> 00:39:50,719 Speaker 4: of fact, there's not a single European country which had 636 00:39:51,000 --> 00:39:54,960 Speaker 4: the equivalent of the Fifth Republic, and they all have 637 00:39:55,160 --> 00:39:59,919 Speaker 4: those negotiations to have a coalition with various political sense 638 00:40:00,000 --> 00:40:03,440 Speaker 4: stivities after the election, and we are more or less 639 00:40:03,600 --> 00:40:08,759 Speaker 4: pushed in this direction, which again I would not consider absurd, 640 00:40:09,800 --> 00:40:12,799 Speaker 4: and the reference to the Fourth Republic doesn't seem to 641 00:40:12,840 --> 00:40:15,200 Speaker 4: be sufficient to say no, no, let's not do that. 642 00:40:15,920 --> 00:40:19,439 Speaker 4: Comparison with the other countries in Europe is something which 643 00:40:19,480 --> 00:40:24,360 Speaker 4: is quite an argument or embarking on such discussions. 644 00:40:24,800 --> 00:40:27,040 Speaker 2: As you know, the way people see these things is 645 00:40:27,080 --> 00:40:30,120 Speaker 2: two data points. Is a trend. We have a Keir 646 00:40:30,160 --> 00:40:34,720 Speaker 2: Starmer labor government in the UK. We have the left 647 00:40:34,840 --> 00:40:39,319 Speaker 2: out performing all expectation here in France. Is there a 648 00:40:39,360 --> 00:40:42,040 Speaker 2: possibility that this is the beginning of the end for 649 00:40:42,200 --> 00:40:45,320 Speaker 2: the rise of the populist right that we hear about 650 00:40:45,400 --> 00:40:47,640 Speaker 2: or is it actually just been a dress rehearsal for 651 00:40:47,800 --> 00:40:50,319 Speaker 2: next time when they'll manage it. 652 00:40:51,960 --> 00:40:55,880 Speaker 4: I said never said never in politics, So no, I 653 00:40:55,920 --> 00:41:01,719 Speaker 4: would say it is a clear sign that at a 654 00:41:01,760 --> 00:41:07,279 Speaker 4: certain moment there is a popular reaction because clearly we 655 00:41:07,400 --> 00:41:15,160 Speaker 4: are living in a democracy. The votes are secret, the 656 00:41:15,320 --> 00:41:19,839 Speaker 4: bulletin are put in the envelope by each individual, each 657 00:41:20,560 --> 00:41:24,760 Speaker 4: I would say, fellow citizens totally independently, and nobody knows 658 00:41:24,800 --> 00:41:27,319 Speaker 4: and can know what he's doing. So it seems to 659 00:41:27,360 --> 00:41:29,799 Speaker 4: me that the sign that has been given by the 660 00:41:29,840 --> 00:41:34,480 Speaker 4: French people, the French citizenship, is very, very important. But 661 00:41:34,520 --> 00:41:37,319 Speaker 4: I will not draw definitive conclusion on the fact that 662 00:41:37,680 --> 00:41:41,960 Speaker 4: now there is aggressive with rowal of public take into 663 00:41:42,000 --> 00:41:49,480 Speaker 4: account as that in the left constituency there are also 664 00:41:49,840 --> 00:41:54,000 Speaker 4: populist elements in the left. They are also part of 665 00:41:54,040 --> 00:41:55,279 Speaker 4: the political spectrum. 666 00:41:56,280 --> 00:42:02,080 Speaker 5: You know, well, no, I don't Populism is not going 667 00:42:02,120 --> 00:42:05,080 Speaker 5: to be defeated this this They are not part of 668 00:42:05,080 --> 00:42:05,600 Speaker 5: the furniture. 669 00:42:05,640 --> 00:42:06,800 Speaker 2: That's just a fact. 670 00:42:07,480 --> 00:42:10,560 Speaker 5: The US, the UK, I mean, Trump may come back 671 00:42:10,640 --> 00:42:13,120 Speaker 5: later this year, and in the UK Nigel Farage is 672 00:42:13,160 --> 00:42:16,400 Speaker 5: even has an even bigger pulpit than ever. So I 673 00:42:16,440 --> 00:42:18,480 Speaker 5: think we shouldn't get too attached to the idea that 674 00:42:18,520 --> 00:42:22,920 Speaker 5: nothing should change or shouldn't change too much in purchasing power, 675 00:42:23,200 --> 00:42:27,200 Speaker 5: inflation and immigration were the two top concerns for voters 676 00:42:27,200 --> 00:42:30,279 Speaker 5: in this election. And if we don't even try and 677 00:42:30,360 --> 00:42:33,359 Speaker 5: offer some kind of dream to people who have seen 678 00:42:33,440 --> 00:42:36,960 Speaker 5: real wages squeezed, to feel their living standards of declined, 679 00:42:37,280 --> 00:42:40,520 Speaker 5: and where the divide between rural and urban France is 680 00:42:40,880 --> 00:42:42,840 Speaker 5: still as deep as ever, then we are going to 681 00:42:42,880 --> 00:42:44,640 Speaker 5: get the pen again in a year. 682 00:42:44,640 --> 00:42:45,520 Speaker 3: Or two years or three years. 683 00:42:45,560 --> 00:42:47,719 Speaker 5: So let's let's let's not forget that. 684 00:42:48,440 --> 00:42:50,479 Speaker 2: Okay, we have a message of I think we've cut 685 00:42:50,480 --> 00:42:54,440 Speaker 2: through some some fog, we have some optimism, but also 686 00:42:54,920 --> 00:42:57,840 Speaker 2: taking some important lessons from this from this result, and 687 00:42:57,880 --> 00:42:59,839 Speaker 2: of course we've still got plenty of plenty to watch 688 00:43:00,040 --> 00:43:01,759 Speaker 2: the next few weeks because we don't know what's going 689 00:43:01,840 --> 00:43:04,719 Speaker 2: to happen. But thank you for all being here for 690 00:43:04,760 --> 00:43:07,640 Speaker 2: our recording of voter Nomics from our Paris bureau, and 691 00:43:07,719 --> 00:43:11,120 Speaker 2: thank you to our excellent guests Leonell Laurent, Eleonora mabro 692 00:43:11,360 --> 00:43:16,080 Speaker 2: Edi and of course Jean Claude Triche. Subscribe to voter 693 00:43:16,200 --> 00:43:19,439 Speaker 2: Nomics wherever you listen to podcasts, everyone in this room, 694 00:43:19,480 --> 00:43:21,680 Speaker 2: I shall expect to do that, and if there was 695 00:43:21,719 --> 00:43:23,759 Speaker 2: anything you didn't quite catch, you will also be able 696 00:43:23,800 --> 00:43:26,799 Speaker 2: to hear it on the Voto Nomics podcast feed, but 697 00:43:26,880 --> 00:43:28,319 Speaker 2: from Paris. Thank you very much.