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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.

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Speaker 2: This is the Blueberg Day Baqo podcast, available every morning

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Speaker 2: on Apple, Spotify or wherever you listen. It's Thursday, the

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Speaker 2: twentieth of March here in London. I'm Caroline Hepka and.

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Speaker 1: I'm Stephen Carroll. Coming up today, Jerome Powell calls tariff

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Speaker 1: risks transitory as he seeks to downplay growth and inflation concerns.

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Speaker 2: On leashing a new China shock. We look at the

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Speaker 2: unintended consequences of Trump's tariffs on developing economies.

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Speaker 1: Plus getting creative. How wealthy people in the UK are

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Speaker 1: adopting new strategies to limit the effects of changes to

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Speaker 1: inheritance tax.

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Speaker 2: Let's start with a round up of our top stories.

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Speaker 3: The Federal Reserve Charge your own.

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Speaker 1: Powell has downplayed concerns about US economic growth and the

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Speaker 1: impact of President Trump's trade war on inflation, as the

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Speaker 1: Central Bank held rates steady for a second straight meeting.

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Speaker 1: Speaking to reporters following the two day policy meeting, Powell

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Speaker 1: went as far as reviving the controversial term transitory.

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Speaker 4: It can be the case that it's appropriate sometimes to

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Speaker 4: look through inflation if it's going to go away quickly

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Speaker 4: without action by US if it's transitory, and that can

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Speaker 4: be the case in the case of tariff inflation. I

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Speaker 4: think that would depend on the tariff inflation moving through

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Speaker 4: fairly quickly, and would depend critically as well on inflation

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Speaker 4: expectations being well anchored longer term inflation expectations being well.

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Speaker 1: Pal's use of transitory was surprising too many after the

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Speaker 1: Fed used the same term when inflation exploded after the

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Speaker 1: onset of the COVID nineteen pandemic. The FED chair went

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Speaker 1: on to call that scenario the base case, but then

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Speaker 1: proceeded to stay, officials really can't know if the tariff

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Speaker 1: effects will be temporary.

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Speaker 2: The S and P five hundred moved higher as Powell spoke,

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Speaker 2: and treasure yields dropped as markets continue to look for

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Speaker 2: clues on the impact of President Trump's trade policies. In

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Speaker 2: apposed on truth social President Trump wrote, quote, the FED

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Speaker 2: would be much better off cutting rates as US tariffs

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Speaker 2: start to transition ease their way into the economy end quote.

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Speaker 2: The decision to actively lobby the Fed for lower interest

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Speaker 2: rates came just hours after White House National Economic Council

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Speaker 2: Director Kevin Hassett tried to reassure investors about the Central

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Speaker 2: Bank's independence. In this back and forth with reporters, we very.

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Speaker 3: Much respect the independence of the FED.

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Speaker 4: There's a massive literature to independent sepprobates perform.

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Speaker 3: Better for academics, and so I don't think that's a districy.

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Speaker 3: It doesn't think you en Mari. I think that's been

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Speaker 3: resolved of the previous administration.

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Speaker 2: Kevin Hassett were speaking as the Trump administration prepares to

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Speaker 2: ann as a fresh wave of so called reciprocal tariffs

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Speaker 2: on the second of April.

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Speaker 1: New Bloomberg reporting is showing how US tariffs are reshaping

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Speaker 1: global trade. Emerging markets are facing a so called China

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Speaker 1: shock as cheap gods derive in developing countries. You and

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Speaker 1: Parts has the details.

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Speaker 5: China's trade surplus last year reached a record of close

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Speaker 5: to one trillion dollars, but as exports to the US flatline,

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Speaker 5: China's hyper competitive manufacturers have been targeting other markets around

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Speaker 5: the world. Blimok has been looking at the pressures being

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Speaker 5: faced by the likes of Indonesia, Brazil, Thailand and Vietnam,

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Speaker 5: as well as big ticket items like electrical vehicles and

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Speaker 5: solar panels. China's exporters are causing job losses in sectors

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Speaker 5: like electrical goods, textiles and shoemaking. One academic described it

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Speaker 5: to US as China Shock two point zero.

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Speaker 3: I'm ewine pots Bimberg radio.

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Speaker 2: Now, the Bank of England is expected to leave the

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Speaker 2: benchmark interest rate on hold later today, markets and economists

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Speaker 2: being leave. The Monetary Policy Committee will hold borrowing costs

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Speaker 2: at four and a half percent, while reiterating a cautious

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Speaker 2: approach to further cards. Speaking earlier this month, the Governor

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Speaker 2: Andrew Bailey said that although the impact of trade tarifs

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Speaker 2: on inflation can be ambiguous, in his words, he did

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Speaker 2: wol the risks to the UK economy from Trump's tariff

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Speaker 2: war quote are substantial.

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Speaker 1: President Vladimir Zelenski is back to US proposal for Ukraine

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Speaker 1: and Russia to stop strikes on energy infrastructure. The Ukrainian

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Speaker 1: leader told US President Donald Trump it would be one

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Speaker 1: of the first steps to fully ending the war. White

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Speaker 1: As Press Secretary KARLN. Levitt says the call helped move

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Speaker 1: towards ending the war.

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Speaker 6: The two leaders also agreed on a partial ceasefire against energy.

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Speaker 6: Technical teams will meet in Saudi Arabia in the coming

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Speaker 6: days to discuss broadening the ceasefire to the Black Sea

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Speaker 6: on the way to a full ceasefire. They agreed this

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Speaker 6: could be the first step toward the full end of

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Speaker 6: the war in ensuring security.

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Speaker 1: Levitt also described the conversation with Zelensky as fantastic, and

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Speaker 1: a US aid described a previous call with Putin as epic.

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Speaker 1: Two weeks ago, the US temporarily cut off Ukraine's military

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Speaker 1: aid and intelligence sharing, but promised fresh support after President's

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Speaker 1: Trump and Zelenski spoke. Meanwhile, EU leaders are meeting in

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Speaker 1: Brussels today to discussed ramping up their defense capabilities. While

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Speaker 1: that U has publicly welcomed US efforts to push for

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Speaker 1: a peace steal, leaders have become increasingly alarmed about being

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Speaker 1: kept out of Trump's dealings with the Kremlin.

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Speaker 2: The next generation of uk nuclear submarines starts construction today

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Speaker 2: as concerns grow about the country's reliance on America for

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Speaker 2: its defense. Pime Minister Kis Starmer is a tending a

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Speaker 2: ceremony to mark the work starting on a new Dreadnought

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Speaker 2: class submarine. James Walcock has more now.

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Speaker 7: Britain's nuclear submarines are emblematic of the country's defense debate.

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Speaker 7: Despite being the country's ultimate nuclear deterrant, all four subs

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Speaker 7: are active beyond their twenty five year service life and

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Speaker 7: rely on America for maintenance. Kiss Arm's rare visit is

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Speaker 7: a way to highlight the public the need to improve

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Speaker 7: the country's defenses, but the next generation will be debated too.

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Speaker 7: It's Britain's most expensive military procurement program, costing an estimated

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Speaker 7: thirty six billion pounds. That's six years worth of the

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Speaker 7: government's welfare cuts announced earlier this week in London, James

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Speaker 7: Wilcock the Radio.

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Speaker 1: And Finland's unbroken streak as the world's happiest country has

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Speaker 1: continued for an eighth year, with the UK in twenty

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Speaker 1: third place in the global ranking. The US came in

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Speaker 1: at twenty fourth for happiness, its lowest ever level. The

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Speaker 1: study by the Well Being Research Center the University of

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Speaker 1: Oxford is based on a three year average of a

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Speaker 1: population's self assessment of its quality of life. Researchers found

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Speaker 1: that belief in the kindness of others is much more

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Speaker 1: closely tied to happiness than previously thought. Denmark, Iceland, Sweden

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Speaker 1: and the Netherlands rounded out the top five.

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Speaker 2: And those are your top stories this morning. Now, let's

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Speaker 2: look at the markets. US DOT futures are up, so

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Speaker 2: perhaps a little bit happier after FED chared your own

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Speaker 2: power reassured them in terms of the fears over tariffs, although,

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Speaker 2: of course President Trump talking about his view that the

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Speaker 2: FED would be much better cutting interest rates. That doesn't

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Speaker 2: really seem to have landed with investors, will it at

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Speaker 2: some point? Tenny US treasury yields of flat four twenty four? Though,

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Speaker 2: remember that Japanese markets are closed for holiday today. The

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Speaker 2: Bloomberg dollar spotl in Leggs is slightly stronger this morning,

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Speaker 2: the Japanese yen extending Wednesday's recovery, gold hitting a fresh

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Speaker 2: record high this morning. The Euro trades at one sport

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Speaker 2: zero eight nine eight, so slightly softer right now. That

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Speaker 2: is a look at the markets.

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Speaker 3: And a moment to bring in more and her.

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Speaker 1: Trump's tariffs are pushing Chinese exports into other markets.

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Speaker 3: Plus how wealthy people.

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Speaker 1: In the UK are developing new strategies to avoid paying

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Speaker 1: inheritance tax. But in the story that colt right this morning,

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Speaker 1: a bottle of whiskey a very rare bottle of whiskey

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Speaker 1: in cased in what looks like concrete to try and

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Speaker 1: add to its rarity value. Have we reached peak collector whiskey?

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Speaker 2: Possibly yes, because the whole idea of this Scottish distiller,

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Speaker 2: Glen Rothis releasing its oldest and rare single mold is

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Speaker 2: that it's meant to be drunk. You're meant to smash

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Speaker 2: the bottle because apparently you know, once you smash the

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Speaker 2: bottle then you can't resell it, or the casing around

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Speaker 2: the bottle you can't then resell the bottle because its

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Speaker 2: almost like selling the bottle without the casing.

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Speaker 1: So the extent to which they've gone with this, so

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Speaker 1: our writer Brad Jaffi has tasted the whiskey unless you

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Speaker 1: read his description.

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Speaker 3: But the bottom line is it's good.

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Speaker 1: But the ideas you can so you can break the packaging,

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Speaker 1: then you can send it back to the distillery, who

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Speaker 1: will get a sugi artist to reassemble the column, filling

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Speaker 1: in the cracks using gold in according with the Japanese

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Speaker 1: practice as well as there's a whole collector's element this,

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Speaker 1: but it's a very interesting dilemma because unlike other high

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Speaker 1: end collectibles of course it is a consumable good, so

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Speaker 1: you have to make the decision as to whether you're

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Speaker 1: you know, keeping the action figure and its packaging or

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Speaker 1: you're taking it out and playing with it.

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Speaker 3: Essentially.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, it's such a nice story anyway, once to think

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Speaker 2: about it, I might be smashing the bottle maybe later

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Speaker 2: for hot Toddy if anyone can hear my little bit

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Speaker 2: of a cult this morning.

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Speaker 1: That's bringing more there on our top story this morning

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Speaker 1: and the latest on the trade tariffs, but our reporting

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Speaker 1: looking at how President Trump's determination to rebalance the US's

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Speaker 1: trade relationship with Beijing is pushing Chinese manufacturers and exporters

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Speaker 1: to look for alternative markets. It's on leading a new

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Speaker 1: China shock on the rest of the world, with job

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Speaker 1: losses and economic devastation in Indonesia and other emerging markets.

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Speaker 1: Let's bring in our Asia Economics reporter Katie Dimitrieva for

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Speaker 1: more on this story. Kat Indonesia is your case study

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Speaker 1: in this reporting. What's happened to jobs and the textile

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Speaker 1: industry there.

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Speaker 8: Well, it's pretty grim, especially in the past year in Indonesia,

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Speaker 8: because there has been such a fast pace of layoffs,

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Speaker 8: like particularly in textiles and shoes elsewhere as well and

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Speaker 8: in other emerging markets, but Indonesia's really being felt there

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Speaker 8: and a large reason for that. People there are blaming

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Speaker 8: and workers and industry groups are blaming China and cheap

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Speaker 8: Chinese imports. And we've seen other other countries in the

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Speaker 8: region reacting to that as well by putting in taxes

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Speaker 8: against companies like Tamu and she and because a lot

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Speaker 8: of the goods are coming in that way, a lot

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Speaker 8: of the clothing is coming in that way, and these

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Speaker 8: small packages. But essentially what's happening is very similar to

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Speaker 8: what we saw in the US rust belt right in

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Speaker 8: the nineties and early two thousands when China first came

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Speaker 8: onto the scene in global trade. We saw a lot

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Speaker 8: of lost jobs two point four million in the US.

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Speaker 8: And while those numbers are not as high in Indonesia,

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Speaker 8: of course, smaller population, they are much faster. The job

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Speaker 8: loss is happening at a much faster pace.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, But of course child is trade surface hashitted all

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Speaker 2: time high, and so the goods that child is muddy.

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Speaker 2: Factually they have to go somewhere. Who else is being affected?

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Speaker 8: Yeah, In twenty twenty four, hitting nearly trillion dollars and

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Speaker 8: so Indonesia's one of them. A Southeast Asia in particular

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Speaker 8: is interesting because these countries are I mean, they're certainly

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Speaker 8: geographically close to China, but geopolitically speaking historically are very close,

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Speaker 8: and they rely on China for a lot of foreign

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Speaker 8: direct investment, building of infrastructure, roads, things of that nature.

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Speaker 8: And so to have these countries facing as challenges most

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Speaker 8: recently very it stands out right, But there's also Brazil,

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Speaker 8: there's Mexico, and President Schinbaum there is doing a lot

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Speaker 8: right now to try to limit again these cheaper goods

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Speaker 8: from entering. And again that's you know, clothing, its shoes,

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Speaker 8: it's steel, but it's also components and kind of these

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Speaker 8: smaller parts that go into big machines and manufacturers that

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Speaker 8: manufacturers use, and is you know, having the dual effect

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Speaker 8: of both hitting demand in the domestic economy, so people

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Speaker 8: are buying these cheap Chinese goods domestically, but also competing

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Speaker 8: internationally is just that much harder when you're competing with China.

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Speaker 1: How much leverage do these countries have to act to

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Speaker 1: be able to push back against China. I mean, they

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Speaker 1: don't have the same economic haft as the US.

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Speaker 8: Yeah, it's and this is what makes this shock quite different, right,

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Speaker 8: the shock two point zero or three point zero is

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Speaker 8: quite different in that a lot of these economies can't

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Speaker 8: really push back. You know, they have industries coming to them,

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Speaker 8: and a lot of the folks profiled in our story

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Speaker 8: are going directly to their industry groups. For are going

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Speaker 8: directly to the government and commerce and trade and saying

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Speaker 8: we need to put in tariffs or something to stop this,

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Speaker 8: and you're seeing some of that. There's some investigations and

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Speaker 8: to steal dumping. There are some tariffs on small packages

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Speaker 8: or like a value added tax, but they're really limited

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Speaker 8: because if they take too strong of a stance, well,

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Speaker 8: there goes your foreign direct investment, there goes your relationship

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Speaker 8: and certainly your geopolitical ties, which is something that countries

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Speaker 8: would be concerned about. So they're really between a rock

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Speaker 8: and a hard place.

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Speaker 2: Gotta thank you so much for being with us this morning.

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Speaker 2: All Asia economics will pull to Catty Dmitrievia and you

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Speaker 2: can read that story in full. Trump's tariffs on Lesha,

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Speaker 2: New China, shock on the rest of the world in

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Speaker 2: depth reporting.

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Speaker 1: Study carried out by AJ Bell in twenty twenty two

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Speaker 1: found a significant investment gap between men and women in

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Speaker 1: the UK of as much as one point sixty five

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Speaker 1: trillion pounds. How much could addressing that help to boost

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Speaker 1: the UK investment landscape? In a bid to close the gap,

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Speaker 1: former Goldman Sachs executive Isiho Fori founded Propelled, the UK's

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Speaker 1: first female focused investment platform.

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Speaker 3: For a work, isshow has.

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Speaker 1: Been shortlisted for both Kliko's Bold Future Award and she's

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Speaker 1: with us in studio now for more. Isha, Good morning

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Speaker 1: to you. What is the background to the issue here?

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Speaker 1: Why are women in the UK investing less than men?

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Speaker 9: There are a few reasons. One of them, i'd say, Well,

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Speaker 9: the main one is that women lack confidence, or i'd

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Speaker 9: say it's perceived confidence. Often when you ask them lots

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Speaker 9: of questions and things like this, they do actually know

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Speaker 9: more about investing than they think. However, they don't act

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Speaker 9: on it because they think that they need to know

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Speaker 9: more or they need an next expert to sort of

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Speaker 9: guide them, so they inevitably tend to be savers rather

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Speaker 9: than investors.

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Speaker 2: Okay, isn't this also part of the gender pay gap

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Speaker 2: and the fact that women often work slightly fewer hours,

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Speaker 2: fewer years on average over the course of their working lives.

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Speaker 9: So that is part of it, but not all of

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Speaker 9: the story. It's a number of things. So the pay

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Speaker 9: gap obviously is one of them. Women are the ones

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Speaker 9: who have children and tend to be the careers, so

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Speaker 9: take time out. Women also tend to be the careers

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Speaker 9: for relatives, parents, and then women also are affected quite

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Speaker 9: a lot during menopause and take time out again. So

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Speaker 9: when you add all of these things together on top

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Speaker 9: of the fact that women live longer and that they're

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Speaker 9: saving rather than investing, it all sort of contributes to

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Speaker 9: the problem.

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Speaker 1: So there's huge untapped potential here as well to boost

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Speaker 1: both investment and individual wealth. How do you tackle it?

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Speaker 9: So for us, it was really about trying to understand

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Speaker 9: the psychology of women when it comes to money in investing,

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Speaker 9: but also what are the those hurdles that have been

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Speaker 9: holding women back and how can we put those into

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Speaker 9: a platform that's accessible to the masses and enable women

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Speaker 9: to really feel comfortable and confident when they start investing.

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Speaker 9: That's the only way to sort of shift the behavior

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Speaker 9: from saving more towards investing.

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Speaker 2: Are you concerned that perhaps initiative like initiatives like yours

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Speaker 2: might suffer some pushback as we see a rollback of

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Speaker 2: diversity actually an inclusion in the United States and that

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Speaker 2: focus on women. Do you think that that perhaps will

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Speaker 2: affect what happens here in the UK.

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Speaker 9: I think absolutely. One of the ways that we reach

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Speaker 9: women is working with corporates, and we've already started to

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Speaker 9: see a shift. But it's really interesting the individuals within

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Speaker 9: those companies, particularly in the UK, are sort of like,

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Speaker 9: we still love what you're doing, we still want to help. However,

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Speaker 9: you know, money and funding and sort of departments are

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Speaker 9: being shut down. That said, they still recognize the need

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Speaker 9: and so they are still trying to see how we

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Speaker 9: can continue to work together. But I've never been afraid

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Speaker 9: of sort of having that pushback. Even when I first

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Speaker 9: had the idea, a lot of people told me I

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Speaker 9: was insane and if women weren't investing, they didn't want to.

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Speaker 1: Well, investing in female lab businesses is a broaderish as well,

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Speaker 1: one being highlighted this morning by Hannah Bernard, the co

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Speaker 1: chair of the invest In Women Task Force in the

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Speaker 1: UK as well, writing in the Financial Times, what is

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Speaker 1: the issue and is it getting worse? I mean, I

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Speaker 1: wonder what your own experience was even getting investment for

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Speaker 1: your own company.

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Speaker 9: I use the word horrendous, and I don't use it lightly.

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Speaker 9: I perhaps was a bit naive and thought that it

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Speaker 9: wouldn't be so challenging for me. I know the statistics

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Speaker 9: around women, but also it's even worse for black women.

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Speaker 9: But I sort of said to myself, I have a

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Speaker 9: master's degree in physics from Imperial, I worked at Morgan

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Speaker 9: Stanley Goldman Sachs. I've got an MBA from London Business School.

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Speaker 9: Surely those things count for something. But it was still

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Speaker 9: incredibly difficult, and inevitably. What I found is that a

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Speaker 9: lot of the investors are men. They're the ones that

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Speaker 9: tend to have money that they're looking to invest in

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Speaker 9: these types of businesses. And I guess it's partly they

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Speaker 9: didn't understand the story or the need as to why

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Speaker 9: women need additional resources or an investment platform for women.

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Speaker 9: But I also think it's just inherent biases as well.

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Speaker 9: But the way that I got around it is, you know,

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Speaker 9: over seventy percent of my investors are women, because they

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Speaker 9: just naturally understood what we were doing and were also

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Speaker 9: prepared to invest in a business run by a woman.

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Speaker 2: Okay, how is propelled doing as a platform? I you know,

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Speaker 2: I'm very interested in this subject because on the one hand,

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Speaker 2: you've got you know, like Hannah Bernard and Debbie Wosco

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Speaker 2: who are leading the government, backed back by Rachel Reed's

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Speaker 2: sort of personally the Invested Women's Task Force focus on women. Okay,

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Speaker 2: investing in female led businesses is going down, but nonetheless

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Speaker 2: they're you know, the they're making that case. And on

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Speaker 2: the other hand, a lot of kind of female led

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Speaker 2: clubs in London, for example, trying to build networking bridges.

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Speaker 2: Those have shut down recently, so it's really a very

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Speaker 2: difficult space. How are you going to manage this and

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Speaker 2: navigate this when it comes to propel itself and building

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Speaker 2: that business.

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Speaker 9: So I think a lot of resilience, I say, is

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Speaker 9: the first thing. But when you speak to women, what

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Speaker 9: I found is they actually do want to invest. We're

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Speaker 9: also going through something called the Great Wealth Transfer, so

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Speaker 9: women are amassing wealth and accelerating rate. I think it's

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Speaker 9: actually this year that the statistics say that sixty percent

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Speaker 9: of UK wealth is going to be controlled by women.

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Speaker 9: So women are getting more and more wealth. And when

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Speaker 9: you do actually speak to them they want to invest,

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Speaker 9: So for me, it's more about finding them. How do

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Speaker 9: we reach them? And we do that, as I said,

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Speaker 9: through companies, through organizations, but actually we've grown massively just

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Speaker 9: by word of mouth, referrals and social media.

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Speaker 1: Are you worried though, with as you described it, how

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Speaker 1: companies are real orientating their approach to efforts like this,

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Speaker 1: that that funnel for you gets cut.

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Speaker 9: Off, I think in a sense of potentially companies paying

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Speaker 9: for some of the services we provide. Yes, but we

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Speaker 9: can still go into these companies and engage with their

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Speaker 9: women's networks and things like this, and that has been

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Speaker 9: incredibly fruitful for us, so, as I said, some.

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Speaker 1: More informal connections necessarily than perhaps the former ones funneled

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Speaker 1: through companies exactly exactly.

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Speaker 9: So maybe the company can't formally engage in the same

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Speaker 9: way anymore, but the individuals in these companies absolutely do,

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Speaker 9: so those doors are still open.

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Speaker 1: Here in the UK, major changes to inheritance tax by

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Speaker 1: the Labor Government means more wealthy Britains are embracing creative

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Speaker 1: tactics to protect and pass on wealth, especially businesses, farmland

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Speaker 1: and pensions. Joining us out to discuss Boinberg's Personal Finance

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Speaker 1: and wealth reporter Alice Cantor Alice, good morning. Remind us,

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Speaker 1: first of all, what has the government changed when it

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Speaker 1: comes to inheritance tax.

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Speaker 10: The government has overhauled the tax system so that from

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Speaker 10: next year, in the year after pensions, business in Farmland,

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Speaker 10: they'll all be including a person's estate.

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Speaker 3: And what that.

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Speaker 10: Means is that when in the past people could pass

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Speaker 10: on their pension and businesses mostly tax free, now they'll

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Speaker 10: be tax at maybe twenty percent, sometimes even forty percent.

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Speaker 2: So what are the strategies so that people are thinking

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Speaker 2: about or employing to basically pass on that wealth, all

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Speaker 2: that business and try to find a creative way around this.

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Speaker 10: Yes, so people are drawing down on them sorry, they're

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Speaker 10: drawing down on their pensions. They're gifting more money to

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Speaker 10: family members and sooner as well. They're establishing trusts, Some

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Speaker 10: are taking out costly life insurance policies. They're considering selling

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Speaker 10: their businesses. They're considering setting up savings accounts for their kids,

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Speaker 10: even leaving the country in some cases just to avoid

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Speaker 10: paying the levey, to avoid putting all that pressure on

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Speaker 10: their children when.

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Speaker 7: They pass on.

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Speaker 1: Are they downsides to these strategies Alice, What are the

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Speaker 1: people that you spoke to most concerned about or perhaps

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Speaker 1: complaining about them most so most wealth advisors.

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Speaker 10: They say that no matter the strategies that you put

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Speaker 10: in place, the reality is that this tax is going

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Speaker 10: to hurt because there's only so much money that you

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Speaker 10: can draw on from your pension spot without being taxed

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Speaker 10: on that as well. And then there's only so much

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Speaker 10: money you can take away from your business without having

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Speaker 10: some implications as well on the running of the business itself.

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Speaker 10: So one problem that people are encountering is that they

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Speaker 10: often have young children who aren't ready to take over

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Speaker 10: their businesses, and so it would be foolish to kind

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Speaker 10: of try to pass on too much too early and

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Speaker 10: then deal with the consequences of that, and then family

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Speaker 10: dynamics might also change. So imagine that you give too

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Speaker 10: much to a family member that you end up having

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Speaker 10: a confrontation with and you might want to change what

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Speaker 10: you've done there. So inheritance tax linning in general is

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Speaker 10: just really hard because of end of life healthcare costs,

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Speaker 10: because of life expectancy that are all quite unpredictable by nature.

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Speaker 10: So peop they want to give money to their family,

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Speaker 10: they want to protect that they want to protect them,

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Speaker 10: but they also want to keep enough for themselves.

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Speaker 1: This is Bloomberg Daybreak Europe, your morning brief on the

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