1 00:00:00,320 --> 00:00:05,280 Speaker 1: The Big Bets on Campus Podcast Podcast Poda. All right, 2 00:00:05,280 --> 00:00:05,760 Speaker 1: here we go. 3 00:00:09,360 --> 00:00:13,000 Speaker 2: Every pitch is your pitch, The greatest show on dirt, 4 00:00:16,239 --> 00:00:18,279 Speaker 2: deep to left field, way back that. 5 00:00:18,680 --> 00:00:28,680 Speaker 1: God, what is that show? Now they can add college 6 00:00:28,760 --> 00:00:35,560 Speaker 1: baseball to their trophy case. Welcome to the Big Bets 7 00:00:35,560 --> 00:00:38,199 Speaker 1: on Campus Podcast, brought to you by bet MGM. 8 00:00:38,280 --> 00:00:39,120 Speaker 2: You asked for it. 9 00:00:39,240 --> 00:00:42,239 Speaker 1: We're delivering more college baseball. We're getting started nearly a 10 00:00:42,240 --> 00:00:45,239 Speaker 1: month earlier than we did last year, and hopefully we 11 00:00:45,280 --> 00:00:49,000 Speaker 1: can lay out a nice pairing of futures here at 12 00:00:49,000 --> 00:00:50,760 Speaker 1: the end of this episode. But we're really gonna walk 13 00:00:50,800 --> 00:00:53,159 Speaker 1: through a little bit of what is at stake in 14 00:00:53,200 --> 00:00:56,120 Speaker 1: the next month in college baseball leading up to regional 15 00:00:56,160 --> 00:00:58,880 Speaker 1: super Regionals, the College World Series. We're gonna kind of 16 00:00:58,920 --> 00:01:01,720 Speaker 1: hold your handsay of the land, and there's no better 17 00:01:01,760 --> 00:01:03,920 Speaker 1: person to do it in the universe than our college 18 00:01:03,960 --> 00:01:05,720 Speaker 1: baseball expert Colin Wilson. 19 00:01:05,760 --> 00:01:08,720 Speaker 2: How you doing, Colin, I'm doing great Caliberisa, and listen, 20 00:01:09,080 --> 00:01:12,000 Speaker 2: I'm already peeking ahead towards football. I've got tarp ready, 21 00:01:12,000 --> 00:01:15,160 Speaker 2: i got wind totals ready, I've seen Arkansas's numbers. 22 00:01:15,600 --> 00:01:16,160 Speaker 1: This is it. 23 00:01:16,280 --> 00:01:18,840 Speaker 2: This is the end of the calendar for the Arkansas Razorbacks. 24 00:01:18,840 --> 00:01:21,920 Speaker 2: It's all in college baseball. So I couldn't be in 25 00:01:21,959 --> 00:01:24,000 Speaker 2: a better place when it comes to our baseball team. 26 00:01:24,240 --> 00:01:26,800 Speaker 2: And I'm glad we're talking college baseball. There's a there's 27 00:01:26,840 --> 00:01:29,720 Speaker 2: a hunger for this sport. It's growing day by day, 28 00:01:29,920 --> 00:01:32,520 Speaker 2: and we are here to educate people on what the 29 00:01:32,560 --> 00:01:34,960 Speaker 2: process is and how people get to Omaha and what 30 00:01:35,000 --> 00:01:36,000 Speaker 2: the format is from there. 31 00:01:36,800 --> 00:01:39,039 Speaker 1: Now, unlike last year where we dove directly into the 32 00:01:39,040 --> 00:01:41,119 Speaker 1: futures market, we're going to stretch our legs a little 33 00:01:41,120 --> 00:01:44,240 Speaker 1: bit here, talk big picture weekend series. Then we're going 34 00:01:44,280 --> 00:01:47,320 Speaker 1: to target target our futures portfolio. But you just mentioned 35 00:01:47,360 --> 00:01:51,560 Speaker 1: the educational aspect of bringing a casual audience to college 36 00:01:51,560 --> 00:01:54,200 Speaker 1: baseball and eventually the College World Series. So give us 37 00:01:54,200 --> 00:01:56,280 Speaker 1: a bit of a primer on how the super regionals work, 38 00:01:56,360 --> 00:01:57,760 Speaker 1: how teams punch their tickets. 39 00:01:58,160 --> 00:02:00,280 Speaker 2: Yeah, this is a lot different. So there is to 40 00:02:00,280 --> 00:02:03,160 Speaker 2: be sixty four teams that make the postseason tournament, just 41 00:02:03,240 --> 00:02:06,120 Speaker 2: like college basketball. But there's a really big difference, and 42 00:02:06,160 --> 00:02:10,000 Speaker 2: that is your at large bids and your auto bids 43 00:02:10,200 --> 00:02:13,880 Speaker 2: are much different than college basketball. Your at large bids 44 00:02:14,160 --> 00:02:17,120 Speaker 2: come from a pool of high RPI your record in 45 00:02:17,240 --> 00:02:19,560 Speaker 2: Quad one in Quad two, and that's if you didn't 46 00:02:19,560 --> 00:02:23,320 Speaker 2: get an automatic qualifier, which is win your conference. Right now, 47 00:02:23,440 --> 00:02:25,200 Speaker 2: Arkansas and Texas, A and M are in a big 48 00:02:25,240 --> 00:02:27,680 Speaker 2: battle to win the SEC. They will play each other 49 00:02:27,720 --> 00:02:30,240 Speaker 2: in the last series of the regular season, and the 50 00:02:30,280 --> 00:02:33,880 Speaker 2: winner of that gets an automatic bid into the postseason tournament. 51 00:02:33,960 --> 00:02:36,399 Speaker 2: It's not like college basketball, where if you win your 52 00:02:36,400 --> 00:02:40,200 Speaker 2: conference tournament, you're in. Conference tournaments don't mean anything in 53 00:02:40,200 --> 00:02:43,200 Speaker 2: college baseball other than the long shot underdogs that are 54 00:02:43,280 --> 00:02:45,760 Speaker 2: dying to get their RPI higher into the thirties and 55 00:02:45,800 --> 00:02:48,800 Speaker 2: have a better Quad one record. So it's much different. 56 00:02:48,800 --> 00:02:51,640 Speaker 2: So you have all of these different qualifiers you get 57 00:02:51,720 --> 00:02:55,119 Speaker 2: into the tournament. You start regionals right after a Memorial Day. 58 00:02:55,440 --> 00:02:57,760 Speaker 2: You have to win a pod of four teams. That 59 00:02:57,880 --> 00:03:01,119 Speaker 2: shaves it down to sixteen, which is the super Regionals. 60 00:03:01,120 --> 00:03:03,600 Speaker 2: You can consider that you're Sweet sixteen and your lead 61 00:03:03,600 --> 00:03:06,840 Speaker 2: eight weekend. In college basketball, you have super regionals where 62 00:03:06,840 --> 00:03:09,000 Speaker 2: two teams will play in the best two of three. 63 00:03:09,280 --> 00:03:11,760 Speaker 2: So if you take anything away from all of that, 64 00:03:12,440 --> 00:03:14,640 Speaker 2: you want to back teams in the futures market that 65 00:03:14,720 --> 00:03:17,600 Speaker 2: you feel have locked up a super regional seed, a 66 00:03:17,680 --> 00:03:19,640 Speaker 2: top eight seed. We will talk about that a lot, 67 00:03:19,680 --> 00:03:22,200 Speaker 2: because if you got it, you're essentially sitting at home 68 00:03:22,320 --> 00:03:23,480 Speaker 2: with a chance to go to Omaha. 69 00:03:24,600 --> 00:03:26,880 Speaker 1: All right, before we get into some of the specifics, 70 00:03:26,919 --> 00:03:29,760 Speaker 1: weekend matchups, futures, everything that I tease at the top 71 00:03:29,800 --> 00:03:31,680 Speaker 1: of the show, let's get a quick game of pepper 72 00:03:31,720 --> 00:03:34,000 Speaker 1: going here you go first, just hit me with some 73 00:03:34,040 --> 00:03:36,880 Speaker 1: of your thoughts, hot takes opinions on the College Diamond. 74 00:03:36,960 --> 00:03:38,720 Speaker 1: As of today, Hey, I'm glad. 75 00:03:38,520 --> 00:03:40,440 Speaker 2: Texas A and M is hot. They're currently the number 76 00:03:40,440 --> 00:03:43,440 Speaker 2: one team in the of all of the rankings that 77 00:03:43,480 --> 00:03:46,040 Speaker 2: are out there right now, and I couldn't be happier 78 00:03:46,280 --> 00:03:50,839 Speaker 2: because the number one seed is cursed. Since nineteen ninety nine, 79 00:03:50,880 --> 00:03:53,760 Speaker 2: the overall seed has not won it. Miami was the 80 00:03:53,800 --> 00:03:55,480 Speaker 2: last time to do that. That was in nineteen ninety nine, 81 00:03:55,560 --> 00:03:58,240 Speaker 2: twenty five years ago. The overall seed hasn't even made 82 00:03:58,240 --> 00:04:01,600 Speaker 2: the championship round since nine, and that was Texas. Wake 83 00:04:01,640 --> 00:04:04,000 Speaker 2: Forest got so close last year with that pitching staff, 84 00:04:04,000 --> 00:04:06,960 Speaker 2: but they ran into LSU and then again. Over the 85 00:04:07,040 --> 00:04:09,680 Speaker 2: last twenty five years, you want to be the two seed. 86 00:04:09,720 --> 00:04:13,240 Speaker 2: The two seed has won more titles than the number one, four, 87 00:04:13,360 --> 00:04:16,839 Speaker 2: six and seven, eight, super regional seeds combine. You don't 88 00:04:16,839 --> 00:04:18,800 Speaker 2: want to be number one. Texas A and M can 89 00:04:18,880 --> 00:04:21,200 Speaker 2: have it. I'd be happy if Arkansas fell into two 90 00:04:21,320 --> 00:04:23,520 Speaker 2: or three, but keep that in mind because there is 91 00:04:23,560 --> 00:04:25,440 Speaker 2: a twenty five year long curse on that number one 92 00:04:25,480 --> 00:04:26,119 Speaker 2: overall seed. 93 00:04:26,680 --> 00:04:28,839 Speaker 1: All right, this has been a consistent storyline. I remember 94 00:04:28,880 --> 00:04:31,440 Speaker 1: talking about it last spring with you. With the number 95 00:04:31,440 --> 00:04:34,440 Speaker 1: one team, usually that's an albatross around their neck. What 96 00:04:34,600 --> 00:04:37,320 Speaker 1: was the last team a team entered number one overall 97 00:04:37,360 --> 00:04:40,640 Speaker 1: that you really were surprised they flamed out as opposed 98 00:04:40,680 --> 00:04:43,359 Speaker 1: to it kind of being an issue maybe mentally in 99 00:04:43,480 --> 00:04:45,760 Speaker 1: terms of the press, the prep, the lead up, the 100 00:04:45,800 --> 00:04:48,239 Speaker 1: pressure negatively impacted the number one team. 101 00:04:48,560 --> 00:04:50,279 Speaker 2: Yeah, it seems like any team to get to number 102 00:04:50,279 --> 00:04:52,080 Speaker 2: one seed has way too much pressure on them. I 103 00:04:52,080 --> 00:04:54,839 Speaker 2: thought wake Forest had the pitching to contain LSU last year. 104 00:04:55,320 --> 00:04:58,120 Speaker 2: They didn't, But there's been other seasons where SEC teams 105 00:04:58,160 --> 00:05:00,520 Speaker 2: come in extremely high. Tennessee he had one of the 106 00:05:00,520 --> 00:05:03,160 Speaker 2: best offenses in recent Power five history a couple of 107 00:05:03,240 --> 00:05:06,320 Speaker 2: years ago. Absolutely flamed out. Be careful of those teams 108 00:05:06,360 --> 00:05:08,719 Speaker 2: that are hitting heavy in late April and in May. 109 00:05:08,800 --> 00:05:10,520 Speaker 2: Sometimes they flame out by the time they get to 110 00:05:10,520 --> 00:05:12,840 Speaker 2: the postseason. But I would say the fact that Tennessee 111 00:05:12,880 --> 00:05:14,840 Speaker 2: did not win that national championship as a number one 112 00:05:14,839 --> 00:05:17,640 Speaker 2: overall seed is one of those that I just still 113 00:05:17,640 --> 00:05:21,279 Speaker 2: can't believe Tennessee's due to win one. It'll be a 114 00:05:21,320 --> 00:05:23,880 Speaker 2: bad day in the Wilson, Arkansas House, but you know 115 00:05:23,960 --> 00:05:25,960 Speaker 2: that they're going to be right back there in Omaha, 116 00:05:26,080 --> 00:05:26,719 Speaker 2: I think again. 117 00:05:27,920 --> 00:05:31,320 Speaker 1: So during college basketball seasons, buried in all of that prep, 118 00:05:31,360 --> 00:05:34,200 Speaker 1: you know, daily shows, writing things up, and basically, you know, 119 00:05:34,240 --> 00:05:35,880 Speaker 1: I peaked out a little bit. I wanted to pick 120 00:05:35,880 --> 00:05:38,000 Speaker 1: out a team or two to add to my portfolio 121 00:05:38,080 --> 00:05:40,840 Speaker 1: for futures. I looked at Florida last year. Hey, they 122 00:05:40,839 --> 00:05:44,360 Speaker 1: were the College World Series runner up. At this point, 123 00:05:44,480 --> 00:05:46,480 Speaker 1: even though they entered the season as a consensus top 124 00:05:46,520 --> 00:05:48,440 Speaker 1: five team, they're in a free fall. They're two to 125 00:05:48,520 --> 00:05:51,159 Speaker 1: eight in their last ten. They can't pitch at all. 126 00:05:51,240 --> 00:05:53,839 Speaker 1: Their team ERA is over six, which is one hundred 127 00:05:53,839 --> 00:05:56,279 Speaker 1: and eighty eighth in the country. And Jack Caglion he 128 00:05:56,320 --> 00:05:58,839 Speaker 1: can't do it all, although he's trying. He's second nationally 129 00:05:58,920 --> 00:06:01,280 Speaker 1: with twenty five home runs. But the staff in general 130 00:06:01,320 --> 00:06:04,080 Speaker 1: has just been so bad. A quick question on the Gators, like, 131 00:06:04,160 --> 00:06:05,840 Speaker 1: is it time to just sell on them? Are they 132 00:06:05,839 --> 00:06:07,880 Speaker 1: packing it up for the season, or is there any 133 00:06:07,920 --> 00:06:10,520 Speaker 1: avenue for them to get hot late or to fix 134 00:06:10,600 --> 00:06:13,200 Speaker 1: any of their issues? Obviously at this point, can't transfer 135 00:06:13,240 --> 00:06:15,880 Speaker 1: portal your way into a better rotation or staff in 136 00:06:15,920 --> 00:06:19,400 Speaker 1: general at this point. But is there any reason for optimism, 137 00:06:19,520 --> 00:06:21,800 Speaker 1: you know, with a month to go before the tournament. 138 00:06:21,640 --> 00:06:24,200 Speaker 2: I would say absolutely zero. They're going to face Arkansas 139 00:06:24,279 --> 00:06:26,719 Speaker 2: in Fayeville this weekend. That's going to be a tough run. 140 00:06:27,040 --> 00:06:29,000 Speaker 2: But then after that, the schedule of the SEC is 141 00:06:29,080 --> 00:06:32,320 Speaker 2: absolutely brutal. The one chance that the Gators have is 142 00:06:32,360 --> 00:06:34,480 Speaker 2: to win the SEC tournament. But we'll go let's go 143 00:06:34,560 --> 00:06:36,160 Speaker 2: back to the root cause of what the problem with 144 00:06:36,240 --> 00:06:40,800 Speaker 2: Florida has been. They shifted out upperclassmen pitchers, and when 145 00:06:40,880 --> 00:06:43,560 Speaker 2: you do that, you're taking a gamble with true freshman pitchers. 146 00:06:43,560 --> 00:06:45,719 Speaker 2: And that's what they had with Liam Peterson. He was 147 00:06:46,080 --> 00:06:49,120 Speaker 2: named the Game two starter, and it's been rough about 148 00:06:49,160 --> 00:06:52,320 Speaker 2: every single start six earned runs, barely getting through four innings. 149 00:06:52,560 --> 00:06:54,479 Speaker 2: They have had a really hard time with this pitching 150 00:06:54,520 --> 00:06:58,640 Speaker 2: staff other than Jack Kagalianun who pitches on Sundays. So 151 00:06:58,920 --> 00:07:01,160 Speaker 2: they just don't have a pitching a bullpen anymore. They 152 00:07:01,200 --> 00:07:04,600 Speaker 2: don't have a game two starter. Brandon Eely's struggling on 153 00:07:04,880 --> 00:07:06,920 Speaker 2: Friday nights. So I don't see how they're gonna run 154 00:07:06,920 --> 00:07:09,159 Speaker 2: through the SEC and then have enough pitching in the 155 00:07:09,160 --> 00:07:12,440 Speaker 2: tournament to win four or five straight. Probably not gonna happen. Oh, 156 00:07:12,520 --> 00:07:14,960 Speaker 2: by the way, the SEC tournament does not invite every 157 00:07:15,000 --> 00:07:18,640 Speaker 2: single team to Hoover. You have to qualify, so Florida's 158 00:07:18,720 --> 00:07:20,320 Speaker 2: kind of in doubt for that too. So I would 159 00:07:20,520 --> 00:07:22,440 Speaker 2: even though this number is like twenty five to one 160 00:07:22,440 --> 00:07:25,160 Speaker 2: in the market, they're done, put a fourk in them, 161 00:07:25,800 --> 00:07:26,080 Speaker 2: all right. 162 00:07:26,160 --> 00:07:27,360 Speaker 1: Hit me up with another hot take. 163 00:07:27,800 --> 00:07:30,040 Speaker 2: Well, I'll say, good job, good effort by Kentucky. They 164 00:07:30,120 --> 00:07:31,880 Speaker 2: rose all the way to the third and the RPI, 165 00:07:32,000 --> 00:07:34,680 Speaker 2: and then Tennessee came to visit them. Tennessee number four 166 00:07:34,680 --> 00:07:38,080 Speaker 2: in the country, and Tennessee was able to take two 167 00:07:38,200 --> 00:07:41,280 Speaker 2: for one win that series in Lexington, And that really 168 00:07:41,360 --> 00:07:44,880 Speaker 2: kind of tells me, good job, good effort, Kentucky. You 169 00:07:44,880 --> 00:07:46,880 Speaker 2: know that I have three teams that are on fraud Watch. 170 00:07:46,920 --> 00:07:50,160 Speaker 2: It was Kentucky, Oregon State and Clemson and Kentucky. I 171 00:07:50,160 --> 00:07:52,440 Speaker 2: don't think so much as a fraud. They do not 172 00:07:52,680 --> 00:07:55,800 Speaker 2: have the bats. UK lost that series because they just 173 00:07:55,800 --> 00:07:58,520 Speaker 2: didn't have the power Tennessee in those final two games, 174 00:07:58,520 --> 00:08:01,000 Speaker 2: because Kentucky won the Friday Night with Trey Pooser on 175 00:08:01,040 --> 00:08:04,520 Speaker 2: the mound. Final two games, Tennessee hit nine home runs 176 00:08:05,200 --> 00:08:07,400 Speaker 2: and UK just doesn't have that gear. They don't have 177 00:08:07,440 --> 00:08:09,360 Speaker 2: that power hitting that you're gonna have to have, especially 178 00:08:09,400 --> 00:08:11,480 Speaker 2: when you go to Omaha. We're gonna talk about this 179 00:08:11,560 --> 00:08:15,040 Speaker 2: more too. Td Ameritrade is a big part. It housed 180 00:08:15,040 --> 00:08:17,360 Speaker 2: the White Sox and Royals for a Major League Baseball game. 181 00:08:17,400 --> 00:08:19,600 Speaker 2: If you don't have power and you're not good at 182 00:08:19,640 --> 00:08:21,840 Speaker 2: slapping doubles off the wall, you're not going to survive 183 00:08:21,880 --> 00:08:24,960 Speaker 2: in Omaha. So Kentucky, good job, good effort. You may 184 00:08:25,000 --> 00:08:27,760 Speaker 2: make the Super Regionals, but you are off my future's list. 185 00:08:28,080 --> 00:08:30,400 Speaker 2: All right, Oregon State Fraud Watch, I'll put a pin 186 00:08:30,480 --> 00:08:31,880 Speaker 2: in that one. I have a follow up question a 187 00:08:31,920 --> 00:08:34,440 Speaker 2: little bit later on our show. For my next hot take, 188 00:08:34,559 --> 00:08:36,880 Speaker 2: it's time to raise the Pirate flag. Let's go ECU. 189 00:08:37,000 --> 00:08:39,560 Speaker 1: The Pirates have yet to reach Omaha, advancing to the 190 00:08:39,600 --> 00:08:42,600 Speaker 1: Super Regional seven times all of those appearances since two 191 00:08:42,600 --> 00:08:44,680 Speaker 1: thousand and one, but they never quite get over the hump. 192 00:08:44,960 --> 00:08:47,160 Speaker 1: But now there's seventh in the country at thirty one 193 00:08:47,240 --> 00:08:49,880 Speaker 1: and eight, and this staff is just mowing people down 194 00:08:49,880 --> 00:08:52,199 Speaker 1: there tenth and k's per nine fifth and staff he 195 00:08:52,280 --> 00:08:54,960 Speaker 1: are a third in whip And why at Lunsford Shank beIN, 196 00:08:54,960 --> 00:08:57,160 Speaker 1: I'm always looking for some kind of star to hang 197 00:08:57,240 --> 00:08:58,840 Speaker 1: my hat on. He's been one of the best closers 198 00:08:58,880 --> 00:09:02,400 Speaker 1: in the entire country nationally with fifteen point four k's 199 00:09:02,400 --> 00:09:04,440 Speaker 1: per nine. The question I have when it comes to 200 00:09:04,440 --> 00:09:07,200 Speaker 1: ECU and really any of these teams trying to slot 201 00:09:07,240 --> 00:09:09,760 Speaker 1: into that Cinderella role, how much do you put on 202 00:09:10,080 --> 00:09:13,319 Speaker 1: a managerial experience when it comes to getting to Omaha 203 00:09:13,480 --> 00:09:15,959 Speaker 1: and figuring out how to handle of pressure, handsel the 204 00:09:16,000 --> 00:09:19,480 Speaker 1: big moments where you make decisions with your bullpen, obviously 205 00:09:19,480 --> 00:09:22,480 Speaker 1: with your lineup making moves as well. How much weight 206 00:09:22,520 --> 00:09:24,360 Speaker 1: do you put on that for a manager coming in 207 00:09:24,440 --> 00:09:26,040 Speaker 1: potentially without much experience. 208 00:09:26,400 --> 00:09:28,720 Speaker 2: Not much. And you would think that the more season 209 00:09:28,760 --> 00:09:32,000 Speaker 2: better and managers would have the upper hand. But every 210 00:09:32,040 --> 00:09:36,000 Speaker 2: year Dave Van Horne of Arkansas is always tinkering his bullpen. 211 00:09:36,200 --> 00:09:38,360 Speaker 2: Sometimes he tinkers who's in his starting pitchers, And you 212 00:09:38,360 --> 00:09:40,440 Speaker 2: would think there are some of these head coaches out 213 00:09:40,440 --> 00:09:42,880 Speaker 2: here at some of these programs. You think of Bianco 214 00:09:42,920 --> 00:09:45,880 Speaker 2: down at all Miss three decades into programs, and they're 215 00:09:45,920 --> 00:09:48,559 Speaker 2: still tinkering with lineups, still tinkering with bullpens, and you 216 00:09:48,679 --> 00:09:51,040 Speaker 2: think that would translate into Omaha. It never does. The 217 00:09:51,080 --> 00:09:53,640 Speaker 2: team that plays out in Omaha is the one that's 218 00:09:53,679 --> 00:09:57,400 Speaker 2: completely unconscious, with blinders on and not listening to anybody. 219 00:09:57,440 --> 00:09:59,520 Speaker 2: So as much as you would like to think that 220 00:10:00,440 --> 00:10:03,440 Speaker 2: have a big effect on these games, truly they don't. 221 00:10:03,520 --> 00:10:06,000 Speaker 2: Their biggest impact comes when they're calling balls and strikes 222 00:10:06,000 --> 00:10:07,920 Speaker 2: and it hits the new watch that the pitchers are wearing, 223 00:10:07,960 --> 00:10:09,600 Speaker 2: and the catchers are wearing the pitchers, so there's no 224 00:10:09,679 --> 00:10:12,640 Speaker 2: more signs, there's no more relaying signs. It's all on 225 00:10:12,679 --> 00:10:14,720 Speaker 2: a watch. So that's the biggest impact the managers have. 226 00:10:15,520 --> 00:10:17,400 Speaker 1: All right, You teased at the top talking about Wake 227 00:10:17,480 --> 00:10:19,600 Speaker 1: a little bit. They lost to Omaha in the semis 228 00:10:19,679 --> 00:10:22,200 Speaker 1: last year in extra innings to the eventual national champs 229 00:10:22,200 --> 00:10:25,679 Speaker 1: in LSU. How does this Wake team to you measure up, 230 00:10:26,200 --> 00:10:28,200 Speaker 1: you know, in terms of potentially getting over the hump 231 00:10:28,200 --> 00:10:30,000 Speaker 1: for a national title. Do they have it? From a 232 00:10:30,040 --> 00:10:32,679 Speaker 1: staff perspective, do they have it in the clutch hitting department. 233 00:10:33,040 --> 00:10:35,280 Speaker 2: They do. They absolutely have it. From a staff perspective, 234 00:10:35,320 --> 00:10:36,960 Speaker 2: I think this team can pitch just as well as 235 00:10:37,000 --> 00:10:39,319 Speaker 2: the team that ran into LSU and what was kind 236 00:10:39,320 --> 00:10:41,560 Speaker 2: of the semi finals of the national title last year. 237 00:10:41,960 --> 00:10:44,880 Speaker 2: So wake up, Wake Forest is back. I posted a 238 00:10:44,920 --> 00:10:46,640 Speaker 2: twenty five to one ticket on Twitter a couple of 239 00:10:46,640 --> 00:10:48,640 Speaker 2: weeks ago, and that's because if you look at this 240 00:10:48,679 --> 00:10:50,800 Speaker 2: remaining schedule, if they can just take the series, if 241 00:10:50,800 --> 00:10:52,240 Speaker 2: they can take two to three from here on out, 242 00:10:52,280 --> 00:10:55,000 Speaker 2: and especially in their last two series, they're going to 243 00:10:55,040 --> 00:10:57,160 Speaker 2: be a super regional seed and everyone's going to have 244 00:10:57,160 --> 00:10:59,520 Speaker 2: to come through home for them to get to Omaha. 245 00:10:59,600 --> 00:11:01,520 Speaker 2: But look at what's happened to them through this year. 246 00:11:01,559 --> 00:11:03,480 Speaker 2: Why did they fall? They were the number one overall. 247 00:11:03,559 --> 00:11:05,440 Speaker 2: I think their opening odds were like six to one 248 00:11:05,480 --> 00:11:08,200 Speaker 2: to win Omaha, and now they're down, they're around twenty 249 00:11:08,240 --> 00:11:10,640 Speaker 2: five to one. Well, look at their pitching staff. Josh 250 00:11:10,640 --> 00:11:13,040 Speaker 2: Hartle has a full run lower and x FIP that 251 00:11:13,120 --> 00:11:16,080 Speaker 2: he does in his era. Chase Burns, who transferred in 252 00:11:16,080 --> 00:11:19,200 Speaker 2: from Tennessee, has been fantastic and era of three, but 253 00:11:19,280 --> 00:11:21,960 Speaker 2: his xFIP is two dot three. You're not into numbers. 254 00:11:22,080 --> 00:11:24,839 Speaker 2: That means there're is serious positive regression coming for an 255 00:11:24,880 --> 00:11:28,280 Speaker 2: already stellar pitching staff. They have two easy series coming 256 00:11:28,360 --> 00:11:31,680 Speaker 2: up this weekend with Notre Dame following that non conference 257 00:11:31,679 --> 00:11:34,400 Speaker 2: against Western Carolina, get out of here. I would take 258 00:11:34,400 --> 00:11:37,120 Speaker 2: the fifteen to one on this wake Forest team right now, 259 00:11:37,160 --> 00:11:40,520 Speaker 2: who I think is a super regional host, especially if 260 00:11:40,520 --> 00:11:42,920 Speaker 2: they sweep or take the series against Clemson and NC 261 00:11:43,080 --> 00:11:46,280 Speaker 2: State to round out May, I think they're right for 262 00:11:46,320 --> 00:11:47,520 Speaker 2: buying for the next two weeks. 263 00:11:48,160 --> 00:11:50,120 Speaker 1: All right, I'm gonna close out our opening segment with 264 00:11:50,200 --> 00:11:53,160 Speaker 1: a question. Can you see Irvine be a Cinderella in 265 00:11:53,200 --> 00:11:55,040 Speaker 1: your opinion? Because when I look at their lineup, they 266 00:11:55,080 --> 00:11:57,040 Speaker 1: have a ton of experience. Their top forty and team 267 00:11:57,040 --> 00:11:59,640 Speaker 1: batting average, walk strawn runs per game, fifth, and on 268 00:11:59,679 --> 00:12:02,240 Speaker 1: base percentage. And a big reason for that is Caden 269 00:12:02,320 --> 00:12:05,400 Speaker 1: Kendall surprise everybody by deciding a return for his senior season. 270 00:12:05,559 --> 00:12:07,840 Speaker 1: He was a mid season All American. He's been over 271 00:12:07,920 --> 00:12:10,240 Speaker 1: four hundred. Is it gonna be enough when they come 272 00:12:10,280 --> 00:12:12,480 Speaker 1: up against the big boys in the College World Series. 273 00:12:12,720 --> 00:12:14,840 Speaker 2: Yeah, OBP is one of the most important things you 274 00:12:14,840 --> 00:12:17,360 Speaker 2: can take to Omaha, especially, like I said, if You're 275 00:12:17,400 --> 00:12:19,920 Speaker 2: a team that can slap doubles all day, hit off 276 00:12:20,120 --> 00:12:22,720 Speaker 2: those deep walls and make it around the bags. That's good. 277 00:12:23,040 --> 00:12:25,320 Speaker 2: I don't want to go poop poo on West Coast 278 00:12:25,400 --> 00:12:28,480 Speaker 2: Baseball because West Coast Baseball from the beginning of the 279 00:12:28,520 --> 00:12:30,920 Speaker 2: season like, there's nobody in the Pac twelve that's that strong. 280 00:12:31,280 --> 00:12:34,480 Speaker 2: There's you know, there's serious questions in the Big West. 281 00:12:34,520 --> 00:12:37,560 Speaker 2: There's UC Irvine, there's Santa Barbara. But we've seen teams 282 00:12:37,559 --> 00:12:40,720 Speaker 2: like Pepperdine and those teams just mentioned who have gotten 283 00:12:40,760 --> 00:12:43,600 Speaker 2: into Omaha and done some damage before. You see. Irvine 284 00:12:43,640 --> 00:12:46,320 Speaker 2: has the stats, but I think we're lacking on big 285 00:12:46,360 --> 00:12:48,599 Speaker 2: game experience from what they have on their schedule to 286 00:12:48,600 --> 00:12:50,760 Speaker 2: see if they can really hang with the accs and 287 00:12:51,120 --> 00:12:53,760 Speaker 2: secs of the world. So for me, it's still out 288 00:12:53,760 --> 00:12:56,240 Speaker 2: there worth a flyer. Absolutely. I think they're a player 289 00:12:56,240 --> 00:12:58,240 Speaker 2: in regionals that can make a super regional. We just 290 00:12:58,240 --> 00:13:00,679 Speaker 2: got to see where they land. All right, let's get 291 00:13:00,720 --> 00:13:02,440 Speaker 2: to some weekend series. I want to pick your brain 292 00:13:02,520 --> 00:13:03,880 Speaker 2: here a bit. Let's start in the SEC. 293 00:13:04,000 --> 00:13:05,920 Speaker 1: We got a two pack Georgia against a and m 294 00:13:06,040 --> 00:13:08,680 Speaker 1: Kentucky against South Carolina. Let's start with the Aggies and 295 00:13:08,720 --> 00:13:11,679 Speaker 1: Bulldogs A and M right now obviously top team in 296 00:13:11,720 --> 00:13:14,080 Speaker 1: the entire country. At which price point do you back 297 00:13:14,120 --> 00:13:16,560 Speaker 1: off of them in the series, Because at least on paper, 298 00:13:16,600 --> 00:13:18,840 Speaker 1: Georgia should be able to keep pace. I mean, and 299 00:13:18,880 --> 00:13:21,440 Speaker 1: also from a live betting perspective, if they're down two 300 00:13:21,559 --> 00:13:23,480 Speaker 1: or three runs, I look at some of their power 301 00:13:23,559 --> 00:13:26,120 Speaker 1: numbers and I say they can score in bunches. Is 302 00:13:26,120 --> 00:13:28,240 Speaker 1: that the right way to approach this because the number 303 00:13:28,320 --> 00:13:30,400 Speaker 1: is probably going to be prohibitive. Just take an A 304 00:13:30,480 --> 00:13:32,880 Speaker 1: and M pre you know the series start, or is 305 00:13:32,880 --> 00:13:34,640 Speaker 1: this something that I should target live betting wise? 306 00:13:35,000 --> 00:13:37,760 Speaker 2: Yeah, I would target it live betting, especially when it 307 00:13:37,800 --> 00:13:39,439 Speaker 2: depends on who's on the mount. Because Texas A and 308 00:13:39,520 --> 00:13:41,719 Speaker 2: MS Ryan Prager going on game one and he's been 309 00:13:41,720 --> 00:13:44,560 Speaker 2: one of the best in the business, and I project 310 00:13:44,640 --> 00:13:47,680 Speaker 2: him minus three twenty over Jarvis Evans in game one. 311 00:13:48,400 --> 00:13:51,439 Speaker 2: After that, Tanner Jones about minus two seventy and Justin 312 00:13:51,520 --> 00:13:54,240 Speaker 2: Lampkin about minus two sixty after that. So for a 313 00:13:54,320 --> 00:13:57,439 Speaker 2: series price, you're probably going to see something above minus 314 00:13:57,480 --> 00:14:00,800 Speaker 2: two hundred, and I would consider Georgia if I could 315 00:14:00,800 --> 00:14:03,200 Speaker 2: get greater than maybe plus two forty plus two to fifty. 316 00:14:03,440 --> 00:14:06,080 Speaker 2: They do have the offense to put up some runs here. 317 00:14:06,440 --> 00:14:09,720 Speaker 2: Texas A and M's problem really for a long time 318 00:14:09,840 --> 00:14:11,640 Speaker 2: is that they've had the pitching, they haven't had the offense. 319 00:14:11,679 --> 00:14:13,600 Speaker 2: Now they have the offense and they have the pitching, 320 00:14:13,760 --> 00:14:16,600 Speaker 2: but they're really going to get tested from a throwing 321 00:14:16,679 --> 00:14:18,960 Speaker 2: perspective here with their starters and their bullpen because this 322 00:14:18,960 --> 00:14:21,880 Speaker 2: Georgia offense, especially with their third basement Condon, he's I 323 00:14:21,880 --> 00:14:23,800 Speaker 2: think the most elite home run hitter we've had in 324 00:14:23,840 --> 00:14:26,160 Speaker 2: college baseball in a really long time. So if you 325 00:14:26,160 --> 00:14:28,000 Speaker 2: can get plus two forty or better on Georgia for 326 00:14:28,040 --> 00:14:30,240 Speaker 2: the series, I would take it. Otherwise, if you're going 327 00:14:30,320 --> 00:14:33,120 Speaker 2: to play single game, I would avoid Georgia against Ryan 328 00:14:33,120 --> 00:14:34,920 Speaker 2: Prayer in the first game, and I would definitely roll 329 00:14:34,920 --> 00:14:37,520 Speaker 2: the dice with Tanner Jones against Tanner Jones and Justin 330 00:14:37,560 --> 00:14:40,240 Speaker 2: Lambkin the and M throwers in game two. In Game three, 331 00:14:41,240 --> 00:14:41,800 Speaker 2: I didn't. 332 00:14:41,600 --> 00:14:43,240 Speaker 1: Go as far as the say Kentucky was a full 333 00:14:43,280 --> 00:14:45,440 Speaker 1: on fraud in the opening here. So you have an 334 00:14:45,440 --> 00:14:47,200 Speaker 1: opportunity now to walk it back a little bit in 335 00:14:47,240 --> 00:14:50,240 Speaker 1: this series against South Carolina, At least on paper the 336 00:14:50,280 --> 00:14:52,160 Speaker 1: way I view it, they should make it difficult on 337 00:14:52,200 --> 00:14:54,800 Speaker 1: the USC lineup to manufacture runs. Am I seeing it 338 00:14:54,840 --> 00:14:56,800 Speaker 1: the right way? Here for a bounce back spot for 339 00:14:56,800 --> 00:14:57,440 Speaker 1: the Wildcats? 340 00:14:57,600 --> 00:15:00,800 Speaker 2: Yeah? Absolutely, actually make Kentucky a very small favorite in 341 00:15:00,840 --> 00:15:02,920 Speaker 2: all three games this weekend, about minus one ten to 342 00:15:03,000 --> 00:15:06,320 Speaker 2: minus one twenty depending on whoever's on the mound. And 343 00:15:06,360 --> 00:15:09,200 Speaker 2: we saw with South Carolina their bullpen got eight alive 344 00:15:09,320 --> 00:15:11,880 Speaker 2: by an Arkansas offense that is really struggling, and that 345 00:15:12,000 --> 00:15:14,960 Speaker 2: was at home. So now they're gonna go and have 346 00:15:15,040 --> 00:15:17,320 Speaker 2: Kentucky come in. I mean, boy, what a schedule for 347 00:15:17,360 --> 00:15:20,520 Speaker 2: South Carolina. Now, South Carolina star Ace Eli Jones goes 348 00:15:20,520 --> 00:15:23,160 Speaker 2: in the first game, although he was held until Saturday 349 00:15:23,200 --> 00:15:25,520 Speaker 2: last weekend, so I would wait until pitchers are announced. 350 00:15:25,880 --> 00:15:28,600 Speaker 2: I wouldn't fade Eli Jones of South Carolina generally their 351 00:15:28,600 --> 00:15:30,640 Speaker 2: Friday night starter, but I would fade the other two. 352 00:15:30,880 --> 00:15:33,040 Speaker 2: So you might want to look at Dominic Namon Mason 353 00:15:33,120 --> 00:15:35,240 Speaker 2: Moore the two and three starter for Kentucky and back 354 00:15:35,280 --> 00:15:36,400 Speaker 2: them on games two and three. 355 00:15:37,200 --> 00:15:38,920 Speaker 1: All right, for the next two pack of games, here 356 00:15:39,040 --> 00:15:42,520 Speaker 1: we'll go almost by coastal Florida, Arkansas, and then Oregon 357 00:15:42,600 --> 00:15:45,400 Speaker 1: Oregon State. In the Civil War, you talked about West 358 00:15:45,400 --> 00:15:48,800 Speaker 1: Coast baseball being down. This is a top twenty five matchup, 359 00:15:48,840 --> 00:15:50,840 Speaker 1: at least out on the West Coast. But let's start 360 00:15:50,880 --> 00:15:53,400 Speaker 1: with Florida and Arkansas. First, you mentioned that it's white 361 00:15:53,400 --> 00:15:55,600 Speaker 1: flag time for the Gators. How do you go about 362 00:15:55,640 --> 00:15:58,120 Speaker 1: betting it when it's just gonna be insane in terms 363 00:15:58,160 --> 00:16:00,440 Speaker 1: of the negative juice you gotta put on Arkansas from 364 00:16:00,480 --> 00:16:03,600 Speaker 1: a single game or series perspective, is there any way 365 00:16:03,640 --> 00:16:05,160 Speaker 1: to bet this or maybe you should just go with 366 00:16:05,200 --> 00:16:05,640 Speaker 1: a total. 367 00:16:06,440 --> 00:16:08,720 Speaker 2: I mean, that's a really good point. So I should 368 00:16:08,720 --> 00:16:11,480 Speaker 2: point out, like Arkansas is coming home after two weeks 369 00:16:11,480 --> 00:16:15,400 Speaker 2: on the road. They play down in bomb Stadium, and 370 00:16:15,440 --> 00:16:18,200 Speaker 2: everybody needs to realize from a park factor's perspective, it's 371 00:16:18,320 --> 00:16:21,160 Speaker 2: actually an under ballpark. Like it's really hard to hit 372 00:16:21,200 --> 00:16:23,120 Speaker 2: homers there. The wind can blow. We actually are gonna 373 00:16:23,120 --> 00:16:26,160 Speaker 2: have some bad weather. Cancel my golf on Saturday because 374 00:16:26,200 --> 00:16:28,360 Speaker 2: it's supposed to be too windy, So I would check 375 00:16:28,360 --> 00:16:30,640 Speaker 2: and see where the wind is going. But from Arkansas 376 00:16:30,680 --> 00:16:33,200 Speaker 2: in general, at home I usually look at unders and 377 00:16:33,240 --> 00:16:35,280 Speaker 2: in this case against Florida, who I you know, just 378 00:16:35,400 --> 00:16:39,040 Speaker 2: decimated from a pitching staff. It's kind of Arkansas needs 379 00:16:39,080 --> 00:16:40,760 Speaker 2: to get hot at the plate. And this is the 380 00:16:40,760 --> 00:16:43,640 Speaker 2: biggest problem with a team that I've put a lot 381 00:16:43,680 --> 00:16:47,240 Speaker 2: of money into, whin Omaha. They're really poor and runs scored. 382 00:16:47,400 --> 00:16:50,440 Speaker 2: They are really poor and base runs when you calculate 383 00:16:50,480 --> 00:16:52,200 Speaker 2: them up like they're just having a really hard time 384 00:16:52,240 --> 00:16:54,920 Speaker 2: getting guys on and getting around. Now, if they flash 385 00:16:55,000 --> 00:16:57,880 Speaker 2: it against Texas Tech and non conference play, they flash 386 00:16:57,920 --> 00:17:00,120 Speaker 2: the ability to score ten runs in a game, but 387 00:17:00,120 --> 00:17:02,000 Speaker 2: it just hasn't been there. So I would say, from 388 00:17:02,000 --> 00:17:05,439 Speaker 2: an Arkansas perspective, with Florida this weekend, if there's a 389 00:17:05,440 --> 00:17:07,879 Speaker 2: book here in Arkansas that offers first five lines and 390 00:17:07,920 --> 00:17:10,200 Speaker 2: they've missed Price Hagen Smith, if you can find first 391 00:17:10,240 --> 00:17:12,680 Speaker 2: five five lines on Arkansas, I would take it. It's 392 00:17:12,680 --> 00:17:16,120 Speaker 2: the best pitching staffs from a starter's perspective. But outside 393 00:17:16,160 --> 00:17:18,440 Speaker 2: of that, I would look to take Arkansas in Game two, 394 00:17:18,480 --> 00:17:19,880 Speaker 2: and I would look to take the over in game 395 00:17:19,880 --> 00:17:22,720 Speaker 2: two because that is where Liam Peterson should pitch for Florida. 396 00:17:23,160 --> 00:17:27,359 Speaker 2: I would back Florida on Sunday with Jack Kelley A 397 00:17:27,440 --> 00:17:29,679 Speaker 2: Nunn on the mound because if Arkansas's up to oh 398 00:17:29,800 --> 00:17:33,159 Speaker 2: they have a tendency to just throw guys after Brady 399 00:17:33,160 --> 00:17:35,720 Speaker 2: tigert on Sunday. That just need the work, just need 400 00:17:35,720 --> 00:17:38,080 Speaker 2: the experience. And if Arkansas's got the series wrapped up, 401 00:17:38,480 --> 00:17:40,880 Speaker 2: they might just let you know, bullpen arms that don't 402 00:17:40,920 --> 00:17:43,040 Speaker 2: get much get fed much play. So I would look 403 00:17:43,040 --> 00:17:44,080 Speaker 2: at Florida in game three. 404 00:17:45,359 --> 00:17:48,240 Speaker 1: Now, Oregon State was on your list of potential frauds. 405 00:17:48,240 --> 00:17:49,640 Speaker 1: Do you think this is a spot where they could 406 00:17:49,640 --> 00:17:51,720 Speaker 1: get nipped exposed a little bit? In terms of the 407 00:17:51,760 --> 00:17:54,480 Speaker 1: advanced metrics, it looks like they have a sizeable advantage 408 00:17:54,560 --> 00:17:57,119 Speaker 1: both from the dish and the bump against the Ducks. 409 00:17:57,359 --> 00:17:59,160 Speaker 1: But is that going to be enough in a rivalry 410 00:17:59,200 --> 00:18:01,520 Speaker 1: game has three series, I should. 411 00:18:01,280 --> 00:18:04,080 Speaker 2: Say Organ's lost what six of their last seven? Al, 412 00:18:04,160 --> 00:18:06,439 Speaker 2: I'm sorry, let me take that back. Oregon State has 413 00:18:06,520 --> 00:18:09,440 Speaker 2: lost like six of their last seven. They are extremely cold. 414 00:18:09,600 --> 00:18:13,560 Speaker 2: Their star anchor Aiden May had an injury in Arlington 415 00:18:13,560 --> 00:18:15,439 Speaker 2: to start the season. He was off for a few weeks, 416 00:18:15,920 --> 00:18:18,400 Speaker 2: came back, got hot, and now he has not been 417 00:18:18,440 --> 00:18:20,919 Speaker 2: hot the last two outings. Not sure what's going up 418 00:18:20,960 --> 00:18:22,720 Speaker 2: with the pitching staff. They're giving up way too many 419 00:18:22,760 --> 00:18:25,760 Speaker 2: runs from an Organ perspective. They looked fine going on 420 00:18:25,760 --> 00:18:28,640 Speaker 2: the road against Stanford last week. Although we did lose 421 00:18:28,680 --> 00:18:30,040 Speaker 2: in the action app for those of you that are 422 00:18:30,760 --> 00:18:33,520 Speaker 2: tagging along in our NCAA baseball plays. We lost on 423 00:18:33,600 --> 00:18:37,040 Speaker 2: Sunday because they spotted a grand Slam to Stanford in 424 00:18:37,080 --> 00:18:38,760 Speaker 2: the middle of the game, which didn't help. But Oregon 425 00:18:39,160 --> 00:18:41,240 Speaker 2: is a team that's on the rise, and this we're 426 00:18:41,240 --> 00:18:43,359 Speaker 2: gonna find out what Organ State's made of. Cal is 427 00:18:43,400 --> 00:18:46,320 Speaker 2: on the rise, Arizona's on the rise. Organ's on the rise. 428 00:18:46,320 --> 00:18:48,439 Speaker 2: If Oregon State wants to lock up the PAC twelve, 429 00:18:48,840 --> 00:18:51,639 Speaker 2: they have to win this series. You know, from a 430 00:18:51,680 --> 00:18:54,880 Speaker 2: pricing perspective, I do make Aiden May and Jacob Kmatz 431 00:18:55,080 --> 00:18:57,679 Speaker 2: minus two ninety to minus three fifty apiece, and then 432 00:18:57,680 --> 00:19:00,840 Speaker 2: on the Sunday starters with Kevin Seiter and Eric Sagara 433 00:19:01,080 --> 00:19:03,960 Speaker 2: about minus two ninety five in favor of Oregon State. 434 00:19:04,000 --> 00:19:06,160 Speaker 2: So the numbers are going to be heavy in Oregon States. 435 00:19:06,200 --> 00:19:08,000 Speaker 2: But I'm going to back Oregon on a rud line 436 00:19:08,000 --> 00:19:11,639 Speaker 2: here because I think Oregon State has probably run their course. 437 00:19:11,920 --> 00:19:14,480 Speaker 2: Their pitching hasn't been there, They're on a massive losing streak. 438 00:19:14,680 --> 00:19:16,760 Speaker 2: I think the Ducks come to play this weekend in Corvallis. 439 00:19:17,560 --> 00:19:21,000 Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm gonna touch on comets potentially pitching this weekend 440 00:19:21,200 --> 00:19:24,080 Speaker 1: playing him because his home away splits are pretty drastic. 441 00:19:24,280 --> 00:19:27,680 Speaker 1: He's really struggled away from Corvallis. Luckily for the Beavers 442 00:19:27,680 --> 00:19:29,480 Speaker 1: in this spot trying to pull out of a tailspin, 443 00:19:29,600 --> 00:19:31,359 Speaker 1: they do get this three game series at home. All right, 444 00:19:31,440 --> 00:19:33,480 Speaker 1: let's finish this up with a two step in the 445 00:19:33,520 --> 00:19:36,560 Speaker 1: ACC Florida State and Duke and Virginia Tech and UNC. 446 00:19:36,720 --> 00:19:38,880 Speaker 1: And here's the way I wanted to frame this. Would 447 00:19:38,920 --> 00:19:41,600 Speaker 1: you rather pick two teams out of this four pack 448 00:19:41,720 --> 00:19:44,119 Speaker 1: or would you rather have wake for a deeper run 449 00:19:44,240 --> 00:19:44,960 Speaker 1: in the ACC. 450 00:19:47,000 --> 00:19:48,240 Speaker 2: That's a good question. I don't know you're going to 451 00:19:48,480 --> 00:19:51,159 Speaker 2: I would definitely okay. So with these four teams that 452 00:19:51,160 --> 00:19:54,280 Speaker 2: we're going to talk about, North Carolina has two freshman 453 00:19:54,359 --> 00:19:57,320 Speaker 2: pitchers that go and you either get fireballs or you 454 00:19:57,320 --> 00:19:59,639 Speaker 2: get garbage balls, and I you know, I mean it. 455 00:19:59,720 --> 00:20:01,679 Speaker 2: Most the time, North Carolina has been really good, but 456 00:20:01,680 --> 00:20:04,439 Speaker 2: with Folger Boaz and some of their other pitchers, you 457 00:20:04,480 --> 00:20:05,480 Speaker 2: don't know what you're gonna get. 458 00:20:05,480 --> 00:20:05,600 Speaker 1: Now. 459 00:20:05,640 --> 00:20:09,720 Speaker 2: Florida State has developed a Friday night starter. He was Saturday. 460 00:20:09,720 --> 00:20:11,639 Speaker 2: Now he's a Friday Night starter. And Jamie Arnold he 461 00:20:11,720 --> 00:20:14,040 Speaker 2: is on fire right now. Florida State is a bet 462 00:20:14,080 --> 00:20:17,040 Speaker 2: on play on team on Friday nights, but after that 463 00:20:17,080 --> 00:20:19,199 Speaker 2: it gets a little dicey about what they have after that. 464 00:20:19,240 --> 00:20:23,160 Speaker 2: Now Duke has the best pitching staff probably in the nation. 465 00:20:23,359 --> 00:20:26,080 Speaker 2: Jonathan Santucci, their Friday night starter can hang with the 466 00:20:26,119 --> 00:20:29,439 Speaker 2: Hagen Smiths and the tray He Savages of the world. 467 00:20:30,040 --> 00:20:32,760 Speaker 2: And then that bullpen is absolutely the most elite in 468 00:20:32,880 --> 00:20:35,520 Speaker 2: all of college baseball. But they don't really have the 469 00:20:35,560 --> 00:20:37,639 Speaker 2: sticks that the other teams have, like Virginia Tech. Now 470 00:20:37,720 --> 00:20:39,959 Speaker 2: Virginia Tech to me, I don't want to call him 471 00:20:40,000 --> 00:20:42,200 Speaker 2: a fraud, they're not. But when they play at home, 472 00:20:42,440 --> 00:20:45,320 Speaker 2: their park factors are like one point five. That is 473 00:20:45,359 --> 00:20:48,640 Speaker 2: a absolute launch pad, and it kind of it kind 474 00:20:48,640 --> 00:20:50,440 Speaker 2: of adds a lot of noise to the numbers and 475 00:20:50,480 --> 00:20:54,080 Speaker 2: the Hokies advanced analytics. Because it's a launch pad at home, 476 00:20:54,119 --> 00:20:56,879 Speaker 2: they don't score as much on the road. To answer 477 00:20:56,880 --> 00:20:58,439 Speaker 2: your question, to look back, I would rather have a 478 00:20:58,440 --> 00:21:01,080 Speaker 2: wake Forest future than take two or three of these 479 00:21:01,080 --> 00:21:02,560 Speaker 2: other four ACC teams. 480 00:21:03,000 --> 00:21:04,960 Speaker 1: See I'm glad that you brought up the home park 481 00:21:05,000 --> 00:21:07,919 Speaker 1: advantage because out of this grouping, it's one of the 482 00:21:07,920 --> 00:21:10,479 Speaker 1: reasons I really like Duke you talked about their pitching staff. 483 00:21:10,560 --> 00:21:13,760 Speaker 1: They're also top twenty in fielding slugging staff Erora. They 484 00:21:13,760 --> 00:21:14,919 Speaker 1: strike a lot of people out. 485 00:21:14,800 --> 00:21:15,439 Speaker 2: As a staff. 486 00:21:15,640 --> 00:21:19,120 Speaker 1: But the key stat to me top ten in road success. 487 00:21:19,200 --> 00:21:20,880 Speaker 1: I want to see you do it away from home, 488 00:21:20,960 --> 00:21:23,280 Speaker 1: because obviously you need to do it in Omaha. And 489 00:21:23,600 --> 00:21:26,679 Speaker 1: I do think whether it's you know, win factors or 490 00:21:26,760 --> 00:21:29,280 Speaker 1: just the you know, the comfortability of playing in your 491 00:21:29,280 --> 00:21:32,080 Speaker 1: friendly confines, that's great, but that's not going to get 492 00:21:32,119 --> 00:21:35,160 Speaker 1: it done, you know, in crunch time in May and June. 493 00:21:35,200 --> 00:21:36,960 Speaker 1: So I think that's the right way to think about 494 00:21:37,000 --> 00:21:40,000 Speaker 1: it all right now, it's an opportunity for us to 495 00:21:40,000 --> 00:21:44,760 Speaker 1: look specifically at single matchups this weekend starters that you 496 00:21:44,800 --> 00:21:48,160 Speaker 1: are champion at the bit to back Friday or Saturday 497 00:21:48,200 --> 00:21:48,679 Speaker 1: this week. 498 00:21:49,200 --> 00:21:51,880 Speaker 2: Yeah, we're always going to back Hagen Smith for Arkansas 499 00:21:52,040 --> 00:21:54,640 Speaker 2: left handed pitcher. If you remember Randy Johnson from MLB, 500 00:21:55,640 --> 00:21:59,560 Speaker 2: kind of like what we have here, tall, lanky, violent delivery. 501 00:22:00,000 --> 00:22:03,080 Speaker 2: He space two hundred and seven batters, one hundred strikeouts, 502 00:22:03,520 --> 00:22:06,240 Speaker 2: two hundred and seven batters, twenty four hits allowed. I mean, 503 00:22:06,240 --> 00:22:09,480 Speaker 2: it's just unbelievable numbers. He's on point right now. He's 504 00:22:09,480 --> 00:22:11,679 Speaker 2: still on fire since the day he stepped on the 505 00:22:11,680 --> 00:22:15,080 Speaker 2: mound and February back in Arlington, he has not dropped 506 00:22:15,160 --> 00:22:16,879 Speaker 2: or had any kind of dead arm or anything. So 507 00:22:16,960 --> 00:22:19,840 Speaker 2: Hagen Smith is a play on Arkansas is a play 508 00:22:19,880 --> 00:22:23,080 Speaker 2: on on Friday nights. The one loan problem is you 509 00:22:23,200 --> 00:22:25,720 Speaker 2: don't want to play run lines with Arkansas because the 510 00:22:25,760 --> 00:22:28,560 Speaker 2: offense isn't scoring enough. So just stick to Hagen Smith 511 00:22:28,600 --> 00:22:31,480 Speaker 2: money lines. They're a little bit juicy, a little bit beefy, 512 00:22:31,840 --> 00:22:34,000 Speaker 2: but it's almost an auto play at this point. 513 00:22:34,320 --> 00:22:38,080 Speaker 3: The podcast is presented by North Carolina's newest sportsbook, bet 514 00:22:38,200 --> 00:22:40,800 Speaker 3: MGM used the bonus code action when signing up to 515 00:22:40,800 --> 00:22:43,040 Speaker 3: get one hundred and fifty dollars in bonus bets when 516 00:22:43,040 --> 00:22:52,440 Speaker 3: you bet just five dollars. Four new users in Arizona, Colorado, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, 517 00:22:52,480 --> 00:22:56,640 Speaker 3: New Jersey, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, Virginia, West Virginia, 518 00:22:56,680 --> 00:22:59,240 Speaker 3: and Wyoming. Terms and conditions apply. Must be twenty one 519 00:22:59,359 --> 00:23:02,480 Speaker 3: or older. Gamble problem called one eight hundred gambler. 520 00:23:04,520 --> 00:23:06,280 Speaker 1: All right, you just teas that you think the duke 521 00:23:06,359 --> 00:23:08,399 Speaker 1: staff top to bottom may be tops in the country. 522 00:23:08,480 --> 00:23:10,679 Speaker 1: Arkansas clearly has a phenomenal staff as well, when you 523 00:23:10,720 --> 00:23:14,080 Speaker 1: take into account freshman like Colin Fisher and Gabe Gackle 524 00:23:14,400 --> 00:23:17,560 Speaker 1: coming out of the pen. Is this the best Arkansas 525 00:23:17,560 --> 00:23:18,880 Speaker 1: staff that you can remember? 526 00:23:19,240 --> 00:23:22,040 Speaker 2: Yes, by far the Kevin Cops. One year we just 527 00:23:22,080 --> 00:23:23,760 Speaker 2: had Kevin Copps. Now, sure he could go eight and 528 00:23:23,760 --> 00:23:26,320 Speaker 2: a half innings, but it was just Kevin Cops. But 529 00:23:26,400 --> 00:23:30,160 Speaker 2: we have had a Tommy John surgery candidate and our 530 00:23:30,240 --> 00:23:33,119 Speaker 2: Friday or Saturday night starter for about five years running. 531 00:23:33,440 --> 00:23:36,639 Speaker 2: As the first year Arkansas has been completely healthy, and 532 00:23:36,680 --> 00:23:38,680 Speaker 2: it's the first year there is at least seven arms 533 00:23:38,680 --> 00:23:40,720 Speaker 2: in the bullpen that Dave van Horn can call on 534 00:23:40,760 --> 00:23:42,680 Speaker 2: at any time. It is the most complete pitching staff 535 00:23:42,720 --> 00:23:45,399 Speaker 2: we've ever had. 536 00:23:48,640 --> 00:23:50,520 Speaker 1: Now, I was very happy to hear you name drop 537 00:23:50,600 --> 00:23:52,720 Speaker 1: Ryan Prager from A and M because I am interested 538 00:23:52,760 --> 00:23:55,200 Speaker 1: in a bounce back spot for the lefty after he 539 00:23:55,240 --> 00:23:58,760 Speaker 1: got shelled by Alabama. Yes, Georgia has a dynamic lineup 540 00:23:58,880 --> 00:24:00,959 Speaker 1: that can stack home runs, but I love what Prager 541 00:24:01,000 --> 00:24:03,359 Speaker 1: brings to the table as a strikeout artist. He has 542 00:24:03,440 --> 00:24:05,880 Speaker 1: hit double digit k's in four of his last nine starts. 543 00:24:06,000 --> 00:24:08,200 Speaker 1: I think he's too good to be held down two 544 00:24:08,240 --> 00:24:10,400 Speaker 1: games in a row. And as I mentioned that rough 545 00:24:10,400 --> 00:24:12,399 Speaker 1: outing against Alabama, I think you're going to get his 546 00:24:12,480 --> 00:24:16,119 Speaker 1: best effort in this one. So you tell me the price. 547 00:24:16,200 --> 00:24:17,960 Speaker 1: I figure I got to pay, you know, minus three 548 00:24:18,080 --> 00:24:21,200 Speaker 1: hundred minus three forty. Is that about right? Yeah? 549 00:24:21,200 --> 00:24:22,800 Speaker 2: I mean it depends on when you get it. Because 550 00:24:22,840 --> 00:24:25,440 Speaker 2: the books, you know what, I'll give odds makers a 551 00:24:25,480 --> 00:24:28,720 Speaker 2: little bit of credit. Their numbers are much closer to 552 00:24:28,760 --> 00:24:31,360 Speaker 2: my projections than they've been all these years past. They're 553 00:24:31,400 --> 00:24:34,280 Speaker 2: maybe fifty cents sixty cents off as to where they 554 00:24:34,320 --> 00:24:37,360 Speaker 2: used to be wildly like two dollars off totals. They're 555 00:24:37,359 --> 00:24:40,800 Speaker 2: still struggling. They're about two and a half runs wide variants. 556 00:24:40,840 --> 00:24:42,879 Speaker 2: But when it comes to Texas A and M this weekend, 557 00:24:43,119 --> 00:24:45,720 Speaker 2: I make it minus three twenty for Ryan Prager against 558 00:24:45,800 --> 00:24:48,639 Speaker 2: Jarvis Evans of Georgia. You know, And that is all 559 00:24:48,680 --> 00:24:50,440 Speaker 2: based when you say where do you get your projections, 560 00:24:50,760 --> 00:24:54,640 Speaker 2: It's based upon er FIP and x FIP, and then 561 00:24:54,680 --> 00:24:58,159 Speaker 2: I project that for Brian Praeger or whoever the starter is, 562 00:24:58,400 --> 00:25:01,200 Speaker 2: I project that for their closer, and then I project 563 00:25:01,240 --> 00:25:03,680 Speaker 2: the remaining innings. How many innings we're gonna get in 564 00:25:03,720 --> 00:25:07,520 Speaker 2: between for the entire bullpen staff with their er FIP 565 00:25:07,520 --> 00:25:09,320 Speaker 2: and x FIP, and then you mix in a little 566 00:25:09,320 --> 00:25:11,639 Speaker 2: base runs of runs per game and defensive metrics, and 567 00:25:11,640 --> 00:25:14,840 Speaker 2: that's how you get a projection. For Ryan Prager, minus 568 00:25:14,840 --> 00:25:18,000 Speaker 2: three twenty is the number, and you're saying, well, you know, 569 00:25:18,240 --> 00:25:21,040 Speaker 2: how do I bet this go Thursday night? There'll be 570 00:25:21,080 --> 00:25:23,600 Speaker 2: some books out there that will put some numbers up, 571 00:25:23,640 --> 00:25:25,639 Speaker 2: and if you see minus two to eighty, you're probably 572 00:25:25,640 --> 00:25:27,639 Speaker 2: gonna see it in the app for me. But the 573 00:25:27,720 --> 00:25:30,200 Speaker 2: run lines usually don't come until an hour before first pitch, 574 00:25:30,280 --> 00:25:31,800 Speaker 2: so keep that in mind. Like you have to make 575 00:25:31,840 --> 00:25:34,560 Speaker 2: a decision when you see that opening number, do I 576 00:25:34,600 --> 00:25:36,199 Speaker 2: want to play this on the money line now or 577 00:25:36,280 --> 00:25:38,640 Speaker 2: wait until the money line goes up and I got 578 00:25:38,680 --> 00:25:40,640 Speaker 2: to play the run line tomorrow and the run line 579 00:25:40,640 --> 00:25:43,080 Speaker 2: is available. It's a really tough decision. But make sure 580 00:25:43,080 --> 00:25:45,680 Speaker 2: you're backing a good offense if you're gonna play run line. 581 00:25:45,680 --> 00:25:47,520 Speaker 2: But other than that, look for minus two eighty on 582 00:25:47,600 --> 00:25:49,240 Speaker 2: opener with Texas A and M. I would play that 583 00:25:49,280 --> 00:25:49,879 Speaker 2: against Georgia. 584 00:25:50,720 --> 00:25:51,840 Speaker 1: So I have a three year old in the five 585 00:25:51,920 --> 00:25:53,359 Speaker 1: year old in our house, so we do word of 586 00:25:53,359 --> 00:25:55,400 Speaker 1: the day. Let's play a little of that right now, 587 00:25:55,440 --> 00:25:57,560 Speaker 1: just for audience, for the casuals out there. What is 588 00:25:57,720 --> 00:25:59,320 Speaker 1: x FIP. What the hell are you talking about? 589 00:26:00,440 --> 00:26:04,920 Speaker 2: It's fielding independent. It's basically your ERA, but it takes 590 00:26:04,960 --> 00:26:07,240 Speaker 2: out all the noise around what happens in the field 591 00:26:07,320 --> 00:26:10,000 Speaker 2: after the batter makes contact with the ball. I think 592 00:26:10,040 --> 00:26:11,920 Speaker 2: if I went any deeper on x FIP then it 593 00:26:12,000 --> 00:26:16,280 Speaker 2: might confuse little people. But it's a more accurate fielding 594 00:26:17,119 --> 00:26:20,040 Speaker 2: independent projection of what the pitcher is doing. You don't 595 00:26:20,040 --> 00:26:21,840 Speaker 2: have to worry about if your defense is screwing up. 596 00:26:22,200 --> 00:26:24,040 Speaker 2: Did the umpire call in air or out? There's a 597 00:26:24,040 --> 00:26:26,480 Speaker 2: lot more airrors in college baseball than there is in 598 00:26:26,480 --> 00:26:28,840 Speaker 2: Major League baseball. So that puts FIP, and that puts 599 00:26:28,960 --> 00:26:31,840 Speaker 2: x FIP and XCRA more into play then ERA and PHIP. 600 00:26:32,480 --> 00:26:34,240 Speaker 1: So who's the next starter you're looking at on Friday 601 00:26:34,280 --> 00:26:34,800 Speaker 1: or Saturday. 602 00:26:35,040 --> 00:26:37,440 Speaker 2: Let's talk about the Vandy Boys. I like the Vandy Boys. 603 00:26:37,960 --> 00:26:40,840 Speaker 2: I mean the Vandy's always perennial, making it to Omaha 604 00:26:40,880 --> 00:26:44,119 Speaker 2: every year. Let's take Carter Holton, junior southpaw. He throws 605 00:26:44,200 --> 00:26:46,200 Speaker 2: game two for them the last two series. They kind 606 00:26:46,200 --> 00:26:48,560 Speaker 2: of mixed up who's throwing what night, But Carter Holton 607 00:26:48,720 --> 00:26:50,840 Speaker 2: is the Saturday guy right now. He has one of 608 00:26:50,840 --> 00:26:53,560 Speaker 2: the highest canine rates in the company. You want a 609 00:26:53,680 --> 00:26:57,040 Speaker 2: very strong strikeout to walk ratio when you go up 610 00:26:57,040 --> 00:26:59,800 Speaker 2: to Omaha. Positive aggression coming for this picture and this 611 00:27:00,000 --> 00:27:02,040 Speaker 2: there's the time here where I'm looking for that. If 612 00:27:02,080 --> 00:27:05,600 Speaker 2: your er is say three, but your ex FIP is five, 613 00:27:06,000 --> 00:27:08,399 Speaker 2: I know that you've had some smoke and mirrors and 614 00:27:08,440 --> 00:27:10,520 Speaker 2: some magic tricks to get to where you've been. So 615 00:27:10,560 --> 00:27:13,000 Speaker 2: I'm always looking for positive and negative aggression around this 616 00:27:13,040 --> 00:27:15,920 Speaker 2: time of year. Carter Holten absolutely can do better than 617 00:27:15,920 --> 00:27:17,760 Speaker 2: what he's shown. His FIP and his ex FIP are 618 00:27:17,800 --> 00:27:20,760 Speaker 2: nearly a run lower than his era. Let's continue to 619 00:27:20,760 --> 00:27:22,040 Speaker 2: back bandy on game two. 620 00:27:23,040 --> 00:27:25,600 Speaker 1: All right, let's back up just one second on Vandy. 621 00:27:25,680 --> 00:27:28,160 Speaker 1: What are your thoughts on them potentially making a deep 622 00:27:28,240 --> 00:27:30,879 Speaker 1: run in Omah. They're a bit of a soft hitting team, 623 00:27:31,000 --> 00:27:33,000 Speaker 1: at least, you know, up against some of these other 624 00:27:33,119 --> 00:27:36,320 Speaker 1: offensive juggernauts. They're eightieth and slugging one hundred and forty seventh, 625 00:27:36,560 --> 00:27:38,720 Speaker 1: seventh in homers. They do hit a lot of doubles. 626 00:27:38,720 --> 00:27:41,040 Speaker 1: Though we mentioned it many times that you get into 627 00:27:41,080 --> 00:27:43,520 Speaker 1: the alley, you can you know, do damage there in Omaha. 628 00:27:43,640 --> 00:27:45,880 Speaker 1: And they're very aggressive on the base bats. They send 629 00:27:45,920 --> 00:27:47,919 Speaker 1: a lot of people to steal bases. Is that a 630 00:27:47,920 --> 00:27:50,480 Speaker 1: recipe that can work and get them over the hump 631 00:27:50,560 --> 00:27:53,560 Speaker 1: or maybe just into the semi finals of Omaha if everything. 632 00:27:53,320 --> 00:27:56,040 Speaker 2: Breaks right, Yeah, I think it does that. That is 633 00:27:56,080 --> 00:27:58,080 Speaker 2: a formula that can get in there. They don't have 634 00:27:58,160 --> 00:28:01,199 Speaker 2: the elite power bats that Tennessee. When you think of 635 00:28:01,240 --> 00:28:04,720 Speaker 2: what more did this past weekend. He dirtied up Florida, 636 00:28:04,840 --> 00:28:06,600 Speaker 2: So Vandy doesn't have that. But think of some of 637 00:28:06,600 --> 00:28:08,720 Speaker 2: the players they've had in the past, like Enrique Bradfield. 638 00:28:08,720 --> 00:28:10,680 Speaker 2: They've had a guy that could steal seventy bases. They've 639 00:28:10,720 --> 00:28:13,280 Speaker 2: always had elite pitching, an elite bullpen. They have the 640 00:28:13,320 --> 00:28:15,200 Speaker 2: formula to make it there, but you're right, they don't. 641 00:28:15,560 --> 00:28:17,880 Speaker 2: I would say They're hitting has a little more pop 642 00:28:17,920 --> 00:28:20,320 Speaker 2: to what Kentucky has. I would say they're a little 643 00:28:20,320 --> 00:28:22,080 Speaker 2: bit more proven that what Kentucky has. And they definitely 644 00:28:22,119 --> 00:28:25,240 Speaker 2: have the coaching staff, which if you take our previous comments, 645 00:28:25,280 --> 00:28:27,480 Speaker 2: whether that matters, but they do know the formula what 646 00:28:27,520 --> 00:28:29,480 Speaker 2: it takes to get to Omaha and I that's why, 647 00:28:29,560 --> 00:28:32,040 Speaker 2: even when they have odds that aren't as good as Kentucky's, 648 00:28:32,080 --> 00:28:35,119 Speaker 2: I still favorite Vandy just because there's so much experience 649 00:28:35,359 --> 00:28:37,320 Speaker 2: with not with the players, but with the coaching staff 650 00:28:37,320 --> 00:28:40,320 Speaker 2: and the formula it takes. They simply turn out one 651 00:28:40,360 --> 00:28:42,440 Speaker 2: of the best ten teams every single year, so I 652 00:28:42,440 --> 00:28:43,800 Speaker 2: think they're worth backing to get to Omaha. 653 00:28:44,600 --> 00:28:46,960 Speaker 1: So I started with Ryan Prager in a bounce back spot, 654 00:28:46,960 --> 00:28:49,000 Speaker 1: I'm going to go with Jacob Kamats from Oregon State, 655 00:28:49,120 --> 00:28:51,880 Speaker 1: also in a bounce back spot. Although he's coming off 656 00:28:52,040 --> 00:28:54,120 Speaker 1: a solid outing. He did lose to cal but he 657 00:28:54,200 --> 00:28:56,080 Speaker 1: pitched pretty well in that one. He only gave up 658 00:28:56,120 --> 00:28:58,920 Speaker 1: three earned runs. And honestly, this just kind of breaks 659 00:28:58,920 --> 00:29:01,520 Speaker 1: down to two things. Oregon's lineup doesn't scare me, and 660 00:29:01,600 --> 00:29:04,440 Speaker 1: the home away splits that I alluded to earlier. He 661 00:29:04,560 --> 00:29:07,360 Speaker 1: has been lights out at home. The former freshman All 662 00:29:07,400 --> 00:29:09,160 Speaker 1: Americans five to zero at home, and it includes a 663 00:29:09,200 --> 00:29:11,840 Speaker 1: complete game gym against Arizona State in which he only 664 00:29:11,840 --> 00:29:13,480 Speaker 1: gave up one run. It was a homer in the ninth. 665 00:29:13,600 --> 00:29:15,680 Speaker 1: He struck out six in that one. I think he's 666 00:29:15,680 --> 00:29:17,560 Speaker 1: going to get them back on track. He's the exact 667 00:29:17,600 --> 00:29:19,840 Speaker 1: guy they want on the bump in a game like this, 668 00:29:19,920 --> 00:29:22,479 Speaker 1: in a rivalry game with so much at stake, From 669 00:29:22,520 --> 00:29:25,080 Speaker 1: a momentum perspective, I think this is going to be 670 00:29:25,320 --> 00:29:27,719 Speaker 1: I'm interested to hear what your projections are and how 671 00:29:27,760 --> 00:29:29,800 Speaker 1: much juice I need to lay in this spot. But 672 00:29:29,880 --> 00:29:32,560 Speaker 1: unless it's really prohibitive, I think I'm on Oregon State here. 673 00:29:32,760 --> 00:29:34,360 Speaker 1: I don't know necessarily if I'll mess around with any 674 00:29:34,400 --> 00:29:37,200 Speaker 1: run lines, but from a moneyline perspective, I trust Commats. 675 00:29:37,880 --> 00:29:39,840 Speaker 2: Yeah, it depends on who he draws this weekend in 676 00:29:39,840 --> 00:29:42,440 Speaker 2: game two, so r J, Gordon, Jag and K Maats 677 00:29:42,440 --> 00:29:44,680 Speaker 2: would be about a minus two to ninety favorite. And 678 00:29:44,720 --> 00:29:50,040 Speaker 2: then if he draws, say Kevin Sider in game two, 679 00:29:50,080 --> 00:29:52,800 Speaker 2: that would be about a minus three eighteen. So you're 680 00:29:52,800 --> 00:29:55,120 Speaker 2: gonna have to pay to get him. But with these 681 00:29:55,160 --> 00:29:58,600 Speaker 2: home road splits, which are as serious thing in college baseball, 682 00:29:58,920 --> 00:30:01,600 Speaker 2: there are so many players that are so much more 683 00:30:01,640 --> 00:30:04,320 Speaker 2: comfortable at home and can struct their stuff at home, 684 00:30:04,360 --> 00:30:06,479 Speaker 2: and they are nothing on the road. And sticks are 685 00:30:06,520 --> 00:30:08,400 Speaker 2: the same way, lineups are the same way. So if 686 00:30:08,400 --> 00:30:10,840 Speaker 2: you have home road splits, specifically in this case, I 687 00:30:10,880 --> 00:30:14,520 Speaker 2: would actually bump that raw projection of minus two ninety 688 00:30:14,720 --> 00:30:17,200 Speaker 2: against Grayson Grinnell, I would jump that up to maybe, 689 00:30:17,360 --> 00:30:19,840 Speaker 2: you know, like a minus three forty R. J. Gordon, 690 00:30:19,840 --> 00:30:21,760 Speaker 2: I would bump that up to like a minus three forty. 691 00:30:21,840 --> 00:30:24,840 Speaker 2: So I would look for anything below minus three hundred 692 00:30:24,880 --> 00:30:27,720 Speaker 2: and get ready to lay it and play the run line. 693 00:30:27,800 --> 00:30:29,600 Speaker 2: You know, especially you think about Oregon State, when you 694 00:30:29,640 --> 00:30:31,480 Speaker 2: look at the runs per game eight point five runs 695 00:30:31,520 --> 00:30:34,400 Speaker 2: per game Oregon seven point two, I would not. I 696 00:30:34,400 --> 00:30:36,520 Speaker 2: don't fear taking a run line with a team that 697 00:30:36,600 --> 00:30:38,200 Speaker 2: averages eight point five runs per game. 698 00:30:39,240 --> 00:30:42,600 Speaker 1: All Right, we are now onto our futures portion of 699 00:30:42,600 --> 00:30:44,560 Speaker 1: the of the podcast. If we want to just go 700 00:30:44,640 --> 00:30:47,480 Speaker 1: in and give one each. Obviously you want to be 701 00:30:47,520 --> 00:30:49,720 Speaker 1: able to build on this, maybe not a team that's 702 00:30:49,800 --> 00:30:52,200 Speaker 1: necessarily in the top ten right now, because we are 703 00:30:52,200 --> 00:30:54,880 Speaker 1: going to be back in mid May for weekly episodes 704 00:30:55,040 --> 00:30:58,280 Speaker 1: to help you grow that portfolio and hopefully head into 705 00:30:58,320 --> 00:31:00,960 Speaker 1: the College World Series the Super Regional holding four or 706 00:31:00,960 --> 00:31:03,080 Speaker 1: five tickets so that you're not necessarily tied up in 707 00:31:03,120 --> 00:31:06,320 Speaker 1: one team because unfortunately, the way the format works, baseball 708 00:31:06,600 --> 00:31:09,840 Speaker 1: can be a fickle sport. You know, sometimes those little 709 00:31:09,880 --> 00:31:12,600 Speaker 1: shots just drop in over the second basement, get a 710 00:31:12,680 --> 00:31:17,600 Speaker 1: rally going. Sometimes hits can be you know, coming and going. 711 00:31:17,640 --> 00:31:20,440 Speaker 1: In terms of offenses that are trying to manufacture runs, 712 00:31:20,440 --> 00:31:22,440 Speaker 1: as you talked about a team like Arkansas that need 713 00:31:22,520 --> 00:31:25,680 Speaker 1: to be able to basically step up in those clutch moments, 714 00:31:25,680 --> 00:31:27,080 Speaker 1: it can be difficult. So you don't want to be 715 00:31:27,400 --> 00:31:30,240 Speaker 1: only holding one ticket. So let's get started. What's the 716 00:31:30,280 --> 00:31:31,960 Speaker 1: future that you bringing to the table today. 717 00:31:32,240 --> 00:31:34,040 Speaker 2: I'm going to take an Oklahoma nine to one. I 718 00:31:34,080 --> 00:31:35,720 Speaker 2: put it in the app last week, but there are 719 00:31:35,840 --> 00:31:37,280 Speaker 2: not a lot of books are offering that. So if 720 00:31:37,280 --> 00:31:38,680 Speaker 2: you have to take a seventy to one for them 721 00:31:38,680 --> 00:31:40,320 Speaker 2: to win the College World Series, you can do that 722 00:31:40,360 --> 00:31:42,240 Speaker 2: as an alternate. But I love nine to one to 723 00:31:42,360 --> 00:31:45,200 Speaker 2: make Omaha. This is a team that just was in 724 00:31:45,240 --> 00:31:47,720 Speaker 2: Omaha two years ago, made it all the way to 725 00:31:47,760 --> 00:31:50,880 Speaker 2: the Championship round before taking a loss. They're twenty second 726 00:31:50,960 --> 00:31:53,920 Speaker 2: to RPI. They have a winning record in Quad one games. 727 00:31:54,040 --> 00:31:56,280 Speaker 2: They're fourteen to nine when you throw in the Quad 728 00:31:56,320 --> 00:31:58,680 Speaker 2: two games with the Quad one games, and what I 729 00:31:58,720 --> 00:32:00,400 Speaker 2: love is that they're nine and three on the road 730 00:32:00,440 --> 00:32:03,400 Speaker 2: this season. Your calbaries talk about home road splits, teams 731 00:32:03,440 --> 00:32:05,040 Speaker 2: that win on the road are going to be able 732 00:32:05,040 --> 00:32:07,520 Speaker 2: to win going to a regional as a two or 733 00:32:07,520 --> 00:32:10,120 Speaker 2: three seed as a guest, they're gonna be able to 734 00:32:10,120 --> 00:32:12,120 Speaker 2: go to Omaha and do some damage. And this Oklahoma 735 00:32:12,120 --> 00:32:14,880 Speaker 2: team has experience doing that. To me, they're shooing to 736 00:32:14,880 --> 00:32:16,840 Speaker 2: make the regionals, There's no question about it because of 737 00:32:16,880 --> 00:32:18,880 Speaker 2: how high their RPI is and what their quad one 738 00:32:18,960 --> 00:32:23,440 Speaker 2: record is. So you know that this is a program 739 00:32:23,640 --> 00:32:26,520 Speaker 2: that ran through Gainesville and Blacksburg two years ago. And 740 00:32:26,560 --> 00:32:28,480 Speaker 2: I bring that up because those are those can be 741 00:32:28,520 --> 00:32:30,880 Speaker 2: an intimidating place to play in the SEC, and then 742 00:32:30,920 --> 00:32:33,240 Speaker 2: Blacksburg is a launching pad. So this is a very 743 00:32:33,320 --> 00:32:35,000 Speaker 2: I mean half this roster was a part of that 744 00:32:35,160 --> 00:32:38,320 Speaker 2: those campaigns, so it's a very seasoned unit. I like 745 00:32:38,360 --> 00:32:40,400 Speaker 2: them to make it to Omaha, but with a nine 746 00:32:40,440 --> 00:32:43,200 Speaker 2: to one just to make it there, this is something 747 00:32:43,200 --> 00:32:45,240 Speaker 2: that I'm not going to touch during the regionals, but 748 00:32:45,320 --> 00:32:47,040 Speaker 2: I am going to hedge for one unit when we 749 00:32:47,040 --> 00:32:49,440 Speaker 2: get to the super. So owe you nine to one 750 00:32:49,520 --> 00:32:50,320 Speaker 2: to make it to Omaha. 751 00:32:51,440 --> 00:32:54,120 Speaker 1: Nineteen to one the Duke Blue Devils to win it all. 752 00:32:54,320 --> 00:32:56,800 Speaker 1: As I mentioned before, top ten in road success. I 753 00:32:56,920 --> 00:32:59,760 Speaker 1: value that above just about any other team stat they're 754 00:32:59,760 --> 00:33:02,320 Speaker 1: really well balanced. I mentioned the fielding, the slugging, the 755 00:33:02,360 --> 00:33:05,200 Speaker 1: staff era. They strike out over eleven per game, which 756 00:33:05,280 --> 00:33:07,760 Speaker 1: is ninth nationally. So when I think about the teams 757 00:33:07,760 --> 00:33:10,200 Speaker 1: that have won in recent years, they clearly have the 758 00:33:10,240 --> 00:33:13,240 Speaker 1: staff to overpower teams, like forget about putting it in 759 00:33:13,280 --> 00:33:15,440 Speaker 1: play and then you know, all hell breaks loose. If 760 00:33:15,480 --> 00:33:17,320 Speaker 1: you can't even hit the ball, then you really are 761 00:33:17,320 --> 00:33:19,760 Speaker 1: going to struggle to score runs against Duke. And I 762 00:33:19,800 --> 00:33:23,840 Speaker 1: have a superstar, Jonathan Santucci. He hasn't been overly consistent, 763 00:33:23,920 --> 00:33:26,880 Speaker 1: you know, for long stretches this year, but his high end, 764 00:33:27,040 --> 00:33:29,280 Speaker 1: as you mentioned, is just about as good as anybody 765 00:33:29,360 --> 00:33:31,800 Speaker 1: in baseball. So I want to try to replicate the 766 00:33:31,840 --> 00:33:34,680 Speaker 1: magic we had with LSU last year. When I think about, 767 00:33:34,880 --> 00:33:37,720 Speaker 1: you know, coming down the stretch and other teams having 768 00:33:37,760 --> 00:33:40,520 Speaker 1: to strategize around and Ace like that, it's like, we're 769 00:33:40,520 --> 00:33:42,240 Speaker 1: probably not going to get that win. So how does 770 00:33:42,240 --> 00:33:44,680 Speaker 1: that have a ripple effect on how we use our starters, 771 00:33:44,680 --> 00:33:46,560 Speaker 1: how we use our staff, or the rest of the series. 772 00:33:46,760 --> 00:33:49,920 Speaker 1: I like someone who has that much gravitational pull in 773 00:33:50,000 --> 00:33:52,520 Speaker 1: a single series matchup, So that's what I'm going to 774 00:33:52,600 --> 00:33:54,480 Speaker 1: go with with Duke. I know that the ACC is 775 00:33:54,560 --> 00:33:56,480 Speaker 1: very challenging. It's still up for grabs in terms of 776 00:33:56,480 --> 00:33:59,960 Speaker 1: who's going to win that regular season and that stretch run, 777 00:34:00,000 --> 00:34:02,400 Speaker 1: and I'm hoping can kind of steal them and give 778 00:34:02,440 --> 00:34:05,200 Speaker 1: them even more belief in making one of the deepest 779 00:34:05,280 --> 00:34:06,880 Speaker 1: runs in program history. What do you think about the 780 00:34:06,880 --> 00:34:09,759 Speaker 1: Blue Devils, particularly at this price point? You always want 781 00:34:09,760 --> 00:34:11,279 Speaker 1: to shop around. Maybe you can get twenty to one 782 00:34:11,480 --> 00:34:13,799 Speaker 1: a little bit better. Obviously that's important to do so, 783 00:34:14,080 --> 00:34:16,360 Speaker 1: but at nineteen to one, is that a by situation 784 00:34:16,480 --> 00:34:16,759 Speaker 1: for you? 785 00:34:17,280 --> 00:34:19,720 Speaker 2: I think Duke is a buy at anything above fifteen 786 00:34:19,760 --> 00:34:22,600 Speaker 2: to one, and they are built to cause a lot 787 00:34:22,600 --> 00:34:25,719 Speaker 2: of problems in the postseason. And why the depth of 788 00:34:25,760 --> 00:34:29,040 Speaker 2: your bullpen, You're gonna get into situations in regionals where 789 00:34:29,160 --> 00:34:30,759 Speaker 2: you're back is against the wall and you've got to 790 00:34:30,800 --> 00:34:34,439 Speaker 2: win four straight. Duke has the pitching staff front to back. 791 00:34:34,480 --> 00:34:38,000 Speaker 2: They have five guys they could be closers in the SEC. 792 00:34:38,239 --> 00:34:40,880 Speaker 2: That's how good, That's how good the entire pitching staff is. 793 00:34:41,560 --> 00:34:43,200 Speaker 2: They just have to get hot at the stick. But 794 00:34:43,280 --> 00:34:45,279 Speaker 2: definitely what they're dealing on the mound is going to 795 00:34:45,360 --> 00:34:47,480 Speaker 2: be a big problem for a lot of teams. I 796 00:34:47,560 --> 00:34:49,680 Speaker 2: expect them. Even if they're a two seed and they 797 00:34:49,719 --> 00:34:52,680 Speaker 2: throw them out west, maybe with Oregon State or UC 798 00:34:52,800 --> 00:34:55,719 Speaker 2: Irvine or somebody else that's got a lower seed, They're 799 00:34:55,719 --> 00:34:57,560 Speaker 2: gonna pull through on that. I would not want to 800 00:34:57,560 --> 00:35:00,600 Speaker 2: see Duke's pitching staff whatsoever. And with how Bacios td 801 00:35:00,680 --> 00:35:02,960 Speaker 2: Ameritrade is in Omaha, I wouldn't want a part of 802 00:35:02,960 --> 00:35:04,799 Speaker 2: that pitching staff either. So I think it's a great buy. 803 00:35:05,120 --> 00:35:06,480 Speaker 2: I would take it all the way up to fifteen 804 00:35:06,480 --> 00:35:07,120 Speaker 2: to one right now. 805 00:35:07,960 --> 00:35:09,239 Speaker 1: You kind of made a joke at the beginning. You 806 00:35:09,280 --> 00:35:11,440 Speaker 1: want A and M to just keep on cruising. Get 807 00:35:11,480 --> 00:35:14,239 Speaker 1: that number one overall, see Jinx their way out of 808 00:35:14,280 --> 00:35:17,439 Speaker 1: winning a national championship. What else is on your wish list? 809 00:35:17,440 --> 00:35:19,200 Speaker 1: We'll close out the episode with this. If there's one 810 00:35:19,200 --> 00:35:21,160 Speaker 1: thing that you can come out of this weekend with, 811 00:35:21,520 --> 00:35:24,000 Speaker 1: you would love to see this from either a team 812 00:35:24,040 --> 00:35:26,480 Speaker 1: that you have an emotional or a financial connection to. 813 00:35:27,040 --> 00:35:30,640 Speaker 2: I made a future bet on Kansas State to start 814 00:35:30,680 --> 00:35:32,759 Speaker 2: the season before any of there have been any pitches thrown, 815 00:35:32,840 --> 00:35:34,480 Speaker 2: and they are finally starting to get hot. I think 816 00:35:34,520 --> 00:35:36,640 Speaker 2: the Big twelve is pretty much up for grabs between 817 00:35:36,680 --> 00:35:38,799 Speaker 2: about four or five teams and it's going to be 818 00:35:38,800 --> 00:35:40,880 Speaker 2: a huge stretch from here on out. But what's notable 819 00:35:40,920 --> 00:35:44,319 Speaker 2: about Kansas State is their closer, Jackson Wentworth. They pulled 820 00:35:44,360 --> 00:35:46,520 Speaker 2: him out of the pen and said you're going to start. 821 00:35:46,560 --> 00:35:48,200 Speaker 2: You're going to start game to us from now on. 822 00:35:48,480 --> 00:35:51,200 Speaker 2: He gets the call on Saturday against Oklahoma State, a 823 00:35:51,239 --> 00:35:54,799 Speaker 2: great offensive team last week, and he always had is 824 00:35:55,040 --> 00:35:57,320 Speaker 2: a bunch of appearances that are less than two innings. 825 00:35:57,520 --> 00:35:59,560 Speaker 2: He goes out there and throw six point one eight 826 00:35:59,640 --> 00:36:02,560 Speaker 2: K's does it in just ninety three pitches. If Kansas 827 00:36:02,600 --> 00:36:04,920 Speaker 2: State has their closer now as a starter who can 828 00:36:04,920 --> 00:36:06,920 Speaker 2: get into the seventh inning and throw with that kind 829 00:36:06,960 --> 00:36:11,400 Speaker 2: of efficiency, I am going to casually look at the 830 00:36:11,440 --> 00:36:14,640 Speaker 2: number I bought last January and Kansas State keep my 831 00:36:14,680 --> 00:36:17,239 Speaker 2: eye on them this weekend because you know, if they 832 00:36:17,239 --> 00:36:19,680 Speaker 2: can win the overall regular season, or if they can 833 00:36:19,719 --> 00:36:21,880 Speaker 2: make their way into regionals and they get this kind 834 00:36:21,880 --> 00:36:24,839 Speaker 2: of pitching performance, maybe they can do some damage here. 835 00:36:24,880 --> 00:36:27,759 Speaker 2: So Kansas State's the team I'm gonna watch this weekend for. 836 00:36:27,800 --> 00:36:29,799 Speaker 1: Colin Wilson on My Calibre's This has been the Big 837 00:36:29,840 --> 00:36:33,880 Speaker 1: Bets on Campus podcast presented by Bett mgm our. College 838 00:36:33,880 --> 00:36:36,120 Speaker 1: Baseball coverage is just getting started. We're gonna be back 839 00:36:36,160 --> 00:36:38,960 Speaker 1: in mid May and then showing up every single week 840 00:36:39,239 --> 00:36:42,160 Speaker 1: all the way through the regional super Regionals, everything in 841 00:36:42,200 --> 00:36:44,360 Speaker 1: Omaha for the College World Series leading up to the 842 00:36:44,440 --> 00:36:47,680 Speaker 1: National Championship, holding your hands along the way, helping you 843 00:36:47,719 --> 00:36:50,200 Speaker 1: put as many bets on the board as you can, 844 00:36:50,680 --> 00:36:53,680 Speaker 1: and as always, it helps us so much if you 845 00:36:53,719 --> 00:36:56,760 Speaker 1: can go ahead and review comments on YouTube on your 846 00:36:57,320 --> 00:36:59,800 Speaker 1: podcast feed as well five star reviews, we'd love to 847 00:36:59,800 --> 00:37:02,680 Speaker 1: get away some some free bets. I'm going to say 848 00:37:02,719 --> 00:37:05,239 Speaker 1: it right now. The next five star review that mentions us, 849 00:37:05,360 --> 00:37:06,799 Speaker 1: I'm gonna go ahead and give you a free ten 850 00:37:06,880 --> 00:37:09,440 Speaker 1: dollars future of a team of your choosing, So please 851 00:37:09,480 --> 00:37:12,120 Speaker 1: go ahead and get that on the board, and our 852 00:37:12,280 --> 00:37:14,719 Speaker 1: producer Matt Mitchell is happy to hand out some Action 853 00:37:14,800 --> 00:37:17,920 Speaker 1: Network swag as well. All right, gonna see you guys 854 00:37:17,920 --> 00:37:30,000 Speaker 1: next time for more action on the College Diamond. Action 855 00:37:30,160 --> 00:37:34,600 Speaker 1: Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or someone 856 00:37:34,640 --> 00:37:37,600 Speaker 1: you care about has a gambling problem, help is available 857 00:37:37,640 --> 00:37:40,240 Speaker 1: twenty four to seven at one eight hundred Gambler