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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. This is the Bloomberg

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Speaker 1: Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live weekdays at seven am Eastern

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Speaker 1: on Apple CarPlay or Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App.

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Speaker 1: Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch

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Speaker 1: us live on YouTube.

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Speaker 2: One of the things you get jaded out in this

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Speaker 2: business is beautyless. The beautyless come out, and there's usually

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Speaker 2: an angle, and I'll be honest, it usually has to

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Speaker 2: do with raising revenue. And what was great about this

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Speaker 2: weekend's barons? You know, I'm sitting there, you know, I

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Speaker 2: got the Mimosa going the chain mimosa. You know I'm

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Speaker 2: opening it up. You know, Ellen Zettner's getting a splash

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Speaker 2: from Wrgan Stanley. But they did their one hundred Women

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Speaker 2: in Finance. It was actually adult like, they had no remorse.

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Speaker 2: It was like as a power list. So I'm looking

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Speaker 2: around for strategists and lo and Behald. There's Laurie Calvicina,

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Speaker 2: who we welcome now with RBC. How did you stumble

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Speaker 2: upon that list? What did they see in your work?

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Speaker 2: Did they actually read your reports?

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Speaker 3: I hope so, I hope so. Now, to be honest,

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Speaker 3: I have no idea who nominated me, But we're grateful

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Speaker 3: for the honor. And you know, Tom, it's interesting. I've

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Speaker 3: been doing this a long time, and you know, I

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Speaker 3: had a birthday yesterday. I'm not going to tell you.

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Speaker 4: How old I am, but twenty nine looking solid.

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Speaker 3: Twenty nine over and over again. But I'll tell you

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Speaker 3: I spent a lot of time early on in my

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Speaker 3: career trying to do the job the way people told

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Speaker 3: me it needed to be done, and to tell stories

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Speaker 3: and have conviction and all these other things. And at

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Speaker 3: some point I figured out that was not what worked

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Speaker 3: for me, and I'm going to do the job the

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Speaker 3: way it makes sense to me and the way I

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Speaker 3: know how to do it. And I've been much happier

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Speaker 3: since I made that conversion. So maybe whoever nominated for

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Speaker 3: me for this list, you know, wasn't looking at the

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Speaker 3: young glory, but is looking at the old world.

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Speaker 2: And your conviction is to pull back your standard and

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Speaker 2: porest call go through the process of that. Why did

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Speaker 2: you cut your estimate?

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Speaker 3: So you know, we we've been running you know, sort

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Speaker 3: of a base case and a bare case since November.

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Speaker 3: We thought it was going to be a highly unpredictable year.

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Speaker 3: And I'll tell you, honestly, Tom, what happened last week

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Speaker 3: was my economics team updated their forecasts along with our

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Speaker 3: rate strategist, and they made some big changes to the

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Speaker 3: GDP and inflation views. And as I was reading their report,

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Speaker 3: I said, you know, I think there's a lot of

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Speaker 3: we don't have to agree, by the way, we can

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Speaker 3: all do whatever we want to do. But I thought

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Speaker 3: that sort of the impact they showed to one q

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Speaker 3: GDP and how that reverberated to the year. So they

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Speaker 3: kind of had you know, kind of a flatish quarter

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Speaker 3: over quarter number in one queue, and then they took

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Speaker 3: their annual number from two down to one six. They

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Speaker 3: made inflation stickier, They had yields moving down before moving

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Speaker 3: back up at the end of the year. And I said, look,

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Speaker 3: there's so much uncertainty out there right now. I'm not

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Speaker 3: going to wait for this big moment of profound clarity.

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Speaker 3: There are some things we can start to bake into

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Speaker 3: our models now. So we flowed that through to the earnings,

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Speaker 3: to the valuation model, some other number, you know, other models.

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Speaker 3: Frankly that we're done on twelve month back test. I

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Speaker 3: changed those to nine month forward back tests. And the

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Speaker 3: numbers changed a little bit, so we felt like it

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Speaker 3: was time to put that out.

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Speaker 5: Primarily an earnings driven adjustment, a discount rate adjustment, or

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Speaker 5: just I'm going to use the word I've heard on

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Speaker 5: all the conference calls and all the it's just uncertainty

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Speaker 5: out there.

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Speaker 6: You know.

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Speaker 3: I think the idea of uncertainty taking a toll on

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Speaker 3: the economy is what really showed up in the GDP forecast,

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Speaker 3: and the GDP numbers flow through to my earnings model.

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Speaker 3: So we pulled that from two seventy one down to

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Speaker 3: two sixty four. And also we have a GDP test

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Speaker 3: and the targeting process, and we had actually said at

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Speaker 3: the beginning of the year, where GDP ends up matters

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Speaker 3: a great deal to this market. Two to three percent

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Speaker 3: GDP historically a very strong range for the stock market.

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Speaker 3: You're up about ten percent on average. But if you

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Speaker 3: look at a one to two percent number, and so

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Speaker 3: remember Francis and her team went down to one six,

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Speaker 3: so they're squarely in the middle of that range. That

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Speaker 3: is typically an onerous environment for the stock market. We're

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Speaker 3: down more often than up, and your average decline is

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Speaker 3: about three So moving from that two to three assumption

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Speaker 3: to that one to two assumption was huge in the targeting.

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Speaker 2: I would editorialize ball here that the tag team wrestling

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Speaker 2: of Lori Calvisina and Francis Donald is die for Francis

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Speaker 2: Donald is so damn good at GDP makeup. Frankly, mister

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Speaker 2: Kearney could call upon her for Francis Donald's Canada. I mean,

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Speaker 2: Francis Donald can't be one UNDERD financed women in America, right,

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Speaker 2: she's Canadian list that, but trust me, if she was,

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Speaker 2: she would have joined Laurie on the list.

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Speaker 4: It's tom a good thing about this list.

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Speaker 5: Many many of the people on this list are regulars

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Speaker 5: on Bloomberg Surveillance.

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Speaker 4: So we're making the right calls there.

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Speaker 2: It seems like we try it every t It's like

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Speaker 2: a real list. What can I say? Now, I know

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Speaker 2: the real bunch of ringers.

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Speaker 5: Good stuff, Laurie. So where do we go from here?

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Speaker 5: You know, one could argue if the uncertainty is calls

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Speaker 5: in part by the rhetoric associated with tariffs and changes

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Speaker 5: in immigration policy and so on. So I don't think

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Speaker 5: that's going away anytime soon. So does that suggest that

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Speaker 5: there's going to be a wait to this market?

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Speaker 4: For a while.

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Speaker 3: So look, I was talking to someone about this this morning,

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Speaker 3: and I got up early this morning. Now, so I've

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Speaker 3: had a bunch of conversations. But it feels like we're

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Speaker 3: stuck in a moment we need to get out of.

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Speaker 3: And I don't know if we're going to be able

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Speaker 3: to get stuck out of that moment or not. But

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Speaker 3: the longer we are stuck in this moment where it's

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Speaker 3: just tariff, tariff, tariff and uncertainty, uncertainty, uncertainty, the bigger

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Speaker 3: toll that is going to take. You know, I do

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Speaker 3: think as I've looked through a lot of the soft data,

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Speaker 3: you know, we're consistently seeing softness on capex expectations and

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Speaker 3: employment expectations. And they're not terrible yet, so you could

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Speaker 3: shift them back in the other direction, but we are

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Speaker 3: seeing evidence that this is having an impact.

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Speaker 2: A lengthy conversation of value ed Ford Global, Wall Street,

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Speaker 2: Lori Cavacina, Royal Bank of Canada RBC is with us

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Speaker 2: right now in studio. We welcome all of you on

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Speaker 2: your commutes across North America this morning. Good morning worldwide

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Speaker 2: on Apple, car Play, Android, Auto, on YouTube, growing each

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Speaker 2: and every day. Subscribe Lisa Mateo demands that you subscribe

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Speaker 2: to Bloomberg podcasts out on YouTube, growing each and every day.

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Speaker 2: So if I have a more tepid economy, I'm seeing

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Speaker 2: a distribution of where SPX is down whatever, but the

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Speaker 2: median or average stock including the Lori Kelvasina worlds getting

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Speaker 2: hammered as well. So if I say I want to

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Speaker 2: buy quality, how does Lori kelvis upweight I want to

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Speaker 2: own or buy quality, how does Lori Kelvisina define that.

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Speaker 3: I think quality is going to be done on a

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Speaker 3: sector bisector basis within industries. You know, if I look

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Speaker 3: at the Rustle two thousand right now, it's actually been

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Speaker 3: acting a little bit better than I would have anticipated.

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Speaker 3: That's something that's calming me down. But if you look

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Speaker 3: at it within the factors within the Rustle two thousand,

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Speaker 3: it is the higher quality factors that are starting to

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Speaker 3: act a little bit better. You look at things like

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Speaker 3: positive negative earnings. You can look at analyst rating. I

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Speaker 3: tend not to do a lot of work on cash.

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Speaker 2: Flow because a capex variability.

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Speaker 3: Well, I mean my clients do look at cash flow.

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Speaker 3: I think that's that's a big part, especially of SMID

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Speaker 3: investing I'll tell you it's a nightmare from a quantitative

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Speaker 3: database perspective, so I don't tend to do a lot

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Speaker 3: around it.

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Speaker 4: So where do we go from here?

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Speaker 5: Do we think about just we had a person here,

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Speaker 5: just a couple of guests ago, a couple of seconds ago,

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Speaker 5: who's now in the hedge fund going to thirty to

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Speaker 5: forty percent cash?

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Speaker 4: Is that what you're hearing from some of your clients

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Speaker 4: these days?

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Speaker 3: So I have heard a little bit of that. I

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Speaker 3: will tell you the conversation last week. And I was

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Speaker 3: a little bit more in sort of the hedge fund

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Speaker 3: derivatives world last week, and there was more of a

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Speaker 3: sense of looking to buy the dip okay, and you know,

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Speaker 3: sort of not entire clarity as ten percent is actually

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Speaker 3: the bottom or maybe we have a bit more to go,

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Speaker 3: but there was sort of a constructive bias, and I

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Speaker 3: think you see that reflected in some of the options

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Speaker 3: markets indicators.

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Speaker 2: Right.

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Speaker 3: The VIX has moved off to certain extremes we saw

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Speaker 3: late last year, but things like the s dex and

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Speaker 3: the T decks haven't really moved, you know, sort of

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Speaker 3: indicating concern, right, but lack of kind of true fear

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Speaker 3: at this point.

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Speaker 2: What does multiples do? I mean, if a multiple's a ratio? Yeah,

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Speaker 2: and I got market cap price whatever in the denominator,

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Speaker 2: I got the Calvissina statistic. Do we get multiple compression?

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Speaker 2: Where we enjoy a selected bear market?

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Speaker 3: You get multiple compression. If you look at like a

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Speaker 3: mediaan S and P five hundred PE, you run that

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Speaker 3: against the Economic Policy Uncertainty Index, you tend to get

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Speaker 3: PE compression when the policy is certain out where do

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Speaker 3: you hide?

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Speaker 2: So we've been telling like Sweeney's.

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Speaker 3: I'll tell you Tom, the sectors are a struggle right now.

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Speaker 3: And interestingly, I think every sector except tech and discretionary

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Speaker 3: is outperforming in the S and P five hundred this year.

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Speaker 3: So that's one bit of the strategy job that you

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Speaker 3: know that's been bit easier for folks. But I don't

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Speaker 3: love defensives in here. So we're underweight staples, we're neutral healthcare.

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Speaker 3: We think there's policy risk on both of those. There's

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Speaker 3: cheap and there's knee jerk defensivism.

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Speaker 2: You know, kind of going intimism. What do you long.

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Speaker 3: I've been telling people to buy financials, and I know

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Speaker 3: they're cyclical, and I know they get hammered when sentiment

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Speaker 3: gets hammered, and so you know, we're not sitting here

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Speaker 3: saying they're not going to underperform a bit more if we,

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Speaker 3: you know, have to get to a bottom and sentiment.

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Speaker 3: But the U missed consumer sentiment survey is getting so

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Speaker 3: bad it is actually close to recession like levels right now.

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Speaker 3: And if you if you go back to our financial

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Speaker 3: conference a few weeks ago, the banks sounded pretty calm

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Speaker 3: and confident. I think they're going to be able to

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Speaker 3: manage through this pretty well. You know, I think they

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Speaker 3: sort of proved themselves post s VB. So I think

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Speaker 3: we're going through a sentiment shock that's going to have

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Speaker 3: some reverberations unless we have a really nasty recession. I

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Speaker 3: think the banks are okay, and I think honestly they were.

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Speaker 3: The sector was a little frothy before this all got started,

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Speaker 3: and we've pulled that valuation froth out.

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Speaker 4: I know you.

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Speaker 5: Did take down your S and P five hundred earnings estimate.

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Speaker 5: Do you think there's even more risk to earnings?

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Speaker 3: Yeah, and look we took our number down a bit.

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Speaker 3: I think we went to two sixty four. And I

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Speaker 3: apologies first day new forecast. Sometimes, you know, I get

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Speaker 3: the numbers a little jumbled up, but you know, we

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Speaker 3: took it down from two seventy one to two sixty four,

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Speaker 3: and we got there through updating the econ forecast. GDP

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Speaker 3: take a huge bite out of that. The stickier inflation

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Speaker 3: adds some back to the revenue line, but frankly, we

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Speaker 3: also took our margin assumption down. I've been baking in

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Speaker 3: some modest expansion this year. I just took it to flat.

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Speaker 3: That's a guess, that's an assumption. But I've gone through

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Speaker 3: so many earnings calls where you know, maybe there's one

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Speaker 3: company that's you know, baked in a little bit of

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Speaker 3: the China terrace, but nothing on Mexico or Canada, and

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Speaker 3: even some of the others have a lot of have

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Speaker 3: a lot of both and a lot of Mexico, and

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Speaker 3: they haven't put any in. So we've got to go

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Speaker 3: through the process of getting something in those numbers. Okay,

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Speaker 3: I think it shows up in my number three Francis's

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Speaker 3: GDP forecasts, but there's a lot of variability around.

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Speaker 2: I only agree with that, whether nominal or real GDP.

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Speaker 2: But what I find fascinating is a solution to this

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Speaker 2: uncertainty for animals like you is you just bring in

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Speaker 2: your X axis. I mean, what you knew three year

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Speaker 2: forecast four months?

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Speaker 3: I actually never have a three year forecast. I mean

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Speaker 3: I always tell people get it, I'm not anymore.

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Speaker 2: We used to have like a three year forecast.

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Speaker 3: Well, look and look, I think that the strategy community

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Speaker 3: has undergone a bit of a shift. When I started

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Speaker 3: in the business, I think it was reasonable to have

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Speaker 3: a twelve year forecast that you didn't have to change

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Speaker 3: our twelve month forecast. You didn't have to change all

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Speaker 3: that much. Things moved too quickly now and I've sort

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Speaker 3: of tried to get the conversation started about, like stop

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Speaker 3: writing these shame on you articles in December about the

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Speaker 3: strategists who moved their targets around a couple of times

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Speaker 3: that worked if you were byron Ween. That doesn't work

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Speaker 3: in this day and age anymore.

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Speaker 2: It maybe otter byron Ween. He was such a support.

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Speaker 2: But Laurie, I mean, are you out the fourth of

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Speaker 2: July with a Sweeney view.

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Speaker 3: Look, you will revise as we need to revise, and

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Speaker 3: as we get you know, new information that comes in,

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Speaker 3: and we you know, we're very forthcoming about that. In

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Speaker 3: our product. Nothing is set in stone here.

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Speaker 5: Right, What are clients, what's the feeling you're getting from

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Speaker 5: your clients, and how has it changed over the last

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Speaker 5: now four or five six weeks Because we kind of

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Speaker 5: came into this administration saying animal spirits gone.

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Speaker 2: Wild, American exceptional.

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Speaker 5: Exactly right, and it was a real thing back in

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Speaker 5: the day. But we are one hundred and eighty degrees

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Speaker 5: from that now.

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Speaker 3: It seems like, you know, I think any consensus assumption

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Speaker 3: there's a Trump put you know, things are going to

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Speaker 3: have this big unfreezing of activity. Every consensus assumption has

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Speaker 3: been thrown out the window. I think Tom hit on

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Speaker 3: something important though about American exceptionalism and our Weekly today

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Speaker 3: we had a couple of charts buried in the back

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Speaker 3: where we were able to look at European domiciled investors

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Speaker 3: and what they're doing. And they're taking money out of

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Speaker 3: the US and putting it into Europe. In the US

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Speaker 3: it's kind of like more neutralish on the US, but

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Speaker 3: the money is flowing into Europe. So I think that,

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Speaker 3: you know, regardless of whether we stabilize here in the

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Speaker 3: US and the US can rebound, I think the door

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Speaker 3: to Europe has been opened.

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Speaker 2: Lloyd Kelvicina, thank you so much, greatly appreciate it with

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Speaker 2: OURBC and of course her honor of being with Barons

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Speaker 2: one hundred women in finance, along with a very good

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Speaker 2: group including Ellen Zeenner.

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Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast. Catch us Live

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Speaker 1: weekday afternoons from seven to ten an listen on Applecarplay

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Speaker 1: and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app, or watch

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Speaker 1: us live on YouTube.

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Speaker 2: Mike Green starts as strong here with Simplify asset management,

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Speaker 2: more of a bigger broader view with his hedge fund

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Speaker 2: experience as well. I want to get to the hedge

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Speaker 2: funds in a minute. But you know when you came in,

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Speaker 2: you know, you know, you got in through the rain.

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Speaker 2: You said, you know, the money's moving back to Europe.

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Speaker 2: What does the quote unquote money moving back to Europe

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Speaker 2: due to the Dow Jones Industrial Average.

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Speaker 7: Well, it really depends on where it was invested. But

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Speaker 7: one of the things that we have clearly seen is

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Speaker 7: a European and rest of world investment into the United States,

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Speaker 7: primarily to access the MAGS seven, but honestly increasingly through

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Speaker 7: things like passive total market allocations, has been invested in

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Speaker 7: the United States. Now that Europe has to bring that

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Speaker 7: money home. We actually are starting to see the first

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Speaker 7: signs of you know what we have always talked about,

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Speaker 7: its financial repression, which is directed return of assets. You've

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Speaker 7: seen pension plans in the UK encouraged to bring more

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Speaker 7: assets home. You're seeing headlines of you know, French banks

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Speaker 7: buying into strategic wastewater and UH treatment in their in

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Speaker 7: their own country. This is causing the dollar to sell

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Speaker 7: off as that money comes back and converted to euros,

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Speaker 7: and it's also causing US assets to sell off. And

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Speaker 7: I think that was an unintended byproduct.

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Speaker 2: So there's a directly into the stock market in America.

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Speaker 5: So, Mike, I mean, I guess a lot of investors

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Speaker 5: are trying to say, all right, this pullback in the market,

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Speaker 5: is it a healthy pullback in otherwise market exactly or

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Speaker 5: is it something else reflecting a new world where tariffs

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Speaker 5: are the name of the game, which calls into question

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Speaker 5: growth and inflation and so on.

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Speaker 7: Well, I was going to joke that if April showers

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Speaker 7: bring mayflowers, what the March showers bring and the answer

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Speaker 7: is terrifidils, right, right, So what we are absolutely saying,

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Speaker 7: I would say is not healthy, although it is necessary. Right, So,

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Speaker 7: when we talk about Europe needing to reinvest in itself,

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Speaker 7: when we talk about the rest of the world having

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Speaker 7: to take on the border the burden from the United States,

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Speaker 7: it's for defense on a global basis or at least

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Speaker 7: on a regional basis. They need those funds to reinvest.

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Speaker 8: Now, is this healthy?

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Speaker 7: Quote unquote doesn't mean it reflects good economic outcomes. No,

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Speaker 7: we know that's bad, but it is unfortunately necessary. It's

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Speaker 7: probably something we should expect to see more of going

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Speaker 7: forward as compared.

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Speaker 5: To last Torsten slack Apollo was out with a note

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Speaker 5: over the weekend saying, basically, the consumers really really slowing

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Speaker 5: down here. He quoted a bunch of statistics, including last

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Speaker 5: week the airlines took down their earnings, Cole's, a big

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Speaker 5: retailer took down its guidance. How do you feel about

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Speaker 5: the consumer here and what it means for this economy.

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Speaker 7: Well, I think what we're seeing, unfortunately, is the air

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Speaker 7: coming out of the Trump enthusiasm trade. So we saw

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Speaker 7: a huge balance in the fourth quarter as it became

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Speaker 7: apparent that Biden had withdrawn from the race, that the

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Speaker 7: pivot to Kamala Harris had not worked for the Democrats.

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Speaker 7: In turn, that led to a surge and consumer confidence. Unfortunately,

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Speaker 7: underneath that there was just always tremendous weakness. This bifurcated

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Speaker 7: economy had been something we've seen for a long time.

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Speaker 7: There's been continual deterioration and consumer credit metrics, and now,

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Speaker 7: of course we've got the reporting that's coming back on

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Speaker 7: whether it's student loans or we're starting to see the

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Speaker 7: disconcerting information coming out of the FAHA on subprime mortgage

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Speaker 7: crisis that has been created there. All of this is

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Speaker 7: basically just reversing that sentiment bounce and exposing what was

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Speaker 7: already happening under the surface.

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Speaker 5: So what do we do here? Do we get defensive?

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Speaker 5: Do we buy the dip? How are you talking to

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Speaker 5: your clients these days?

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Speaker 7: Well, the biggest thing I would highlight, you know, one

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Speaker 7: we mentioned the idea of the real rate, the ten

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Speaker 7: year real rate, that seems very much at odds with

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Speaker 7: almost everything else we're seeing. When there's uncertainty around investment,

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Speaker 7: you should look for certainty or when you can find

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Speaker 7: that opportunity, that two percent reel is a relatively attractive

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Speaker 7: yield versus history. So that's one thing I'm encouraging people

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Speaker 7: to make sure that they take a look at the

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Speaker 7: second component is is to recognize that the markets are

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Speaker 7: just like they were going into COVID. We know there's

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Speaker 7: something ugly out there, we know there's problems out there,

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Speaker 7: but they can't react until the flows from four oh

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Speaker 7: one k is, et cetera start to deteriorate, until that

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Speaker 7: non discretionary fund starts to change.

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Speaker 2: Bloomberg surveillance nationwide in your commute this morning, we welcome

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Speaker 2: all of you. Good morning, ninety nine one FM. Nathan Hagers, Washington,

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Speaker 2: Good morning to ninety two nine FM and Boston saw

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Speaker 2: some Red Sox baseball this weekend digested. I think they

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Speaker 2: can be first placed by April fifteenth.

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Speaker 4: Nice, don't ask me about all sixteen.

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Speaker 2: All there as well, we say good morning, Bloomberg eleventh

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Speaker 2: Roe zero in New York. Wherever you are in the

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Speaker 2: weather tour in America, be careful out there, and to

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Speaker 2: a Michael Borrow, have some good updates for you. Mike

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Speaker 2: Green with us is simplify asset management?

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Speaker 7: What to simplify simplify As an ETF firm, we were

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Speaker 7: launched in September of twenty twenty in response to regulatory change.

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Speaker 7: The facilitated the inclusion of alternative strategies and ETFs.

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Speaker 2: Hedge funds within an ETF structure.

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Speaker 8: Yeah, there was a big change coalition.

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Speaker 7: It's going reasonably well. We've got several funds that are

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Speaker 7: doing quite well. In particular, managed futures has been an

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Speaker 7: area for US that's been really successful. Some of the

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Speaker 7: revisions or or more conservative ways of into volatility markets

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Speaker 7: have been successful for us. We've grown from about two

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Speaker 7: hundred million to now about seven billion.

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Speaker 2: How does long short do here? Away from simplify just

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Speaker 2: as a general statement to me, it's stochastic on both sides.

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Speaker 2: I'm catching a knife on both sides on a daily basis.

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Speaker 7: So actually, this is one of the areas I spent

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Speaker 7: a lot of time talking about passive I tend to

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Speaker 7: play a bit of a psychologist role for short sellers

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Speaker 7: because the problem is they are short securities that are

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Speaker 7: convex in their structure, right, and so the vanguards, etc.

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Speaker 7: Those passive flows, when those come in, they're larger than

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Speaker 7: any one player, and as a result, people are getting

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Speaker 7: shaken out and a big chunk of the volatility that

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Speaker 7: we've experienced has been a breakdown in correlations, a breakdown

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Speaker 7: in rotation and leadership. Is that MAGS seven turned around

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Speaker 7: and went down. That caused unwinds and significant stress in

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Speaker 7: the long short community that's manifested itself in that wild

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Speaker 7: gyrations that we've seen.

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Speaker 5: So where are you seeing funds flows today? Maybe over

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Speaker 5: the last couple of months.

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Speaker 7: Actually, well, it really depends on the underlying fund right,

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Speaker 7: So managed futures, as I mentioned, as an area, that's

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Speaker 7: one where we're seeing a lot of interest. Is people

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Speaker 7: are unsure about the protection that's provided by bonds in

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Speaker 7: this environment, so they're looking for alternative, non equity correlated assets.

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Speaker 7: That's been an area that's attracted some funds. We're starting

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Speaker 7: to see money flow into commodities again. Fears about inflation

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Speaker 7: are kicking in, and obviously things like gold are attracting

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Speaker 7: a ton of assets, not just domestically but also internationally.

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Speaker 2: Is gold and commodities in general on a trend basis.

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Speaker 2: You mentioned managed futures, but you know CTA one oh

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Speaker 2: one is commodities trend? Is gold trending?

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Speaker 7: Well, gold is clearly trending. We are certainly seeing elements

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Speaker 7: of that. Other commodities, particularly the softs, are starting to

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Speaker 7: show some indication of trend as well, and so that's

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Speaker 7: been an area really started to attract some capital.

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Speaker 4: So what do we do here?

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Speaker 5: I mean, as it relates to kind of risk on,

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Speaker 5: risk off here, I kind of feel like we're a

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Speaker 5: kind of a fork in the road a little bit

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Speaker 5: to here. I'm not sure people really want to jump

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Speaker 5: in and sound buying this dip here.

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Speaker 4: How do you guys think about it?

437
00:20:01,600 --> 00:20:02,960
Speaker 8: Well, we watch it on two fronts.

438
00:20:02,960 --> 00:20:05,480
Speaker 7: So one is the systematic flows we mentioned ct a's

439
00:20:05,560 --> 00:20:09,760
Speaker 7: CTAs have increasingly Ata is the trend following type strategies.

440
00:20:09,960 --> 00:20:15,399
Speaker 7: The trend has broken down in the Monroe trout.

441
00:20:15,480 --> 00:20:17,320
Speaker 8: Good morning perfect.

442
00:20:18,119 --> 00:20:20,480
Speaker 2: I was weaned on all these animals. One of them,

443
00:20:20,480 --> 00:20:22,920
Speaker 2: by the way, folks, is a guy named Jay Henry

444
00:20:23,200 --> 00:20:25,600
Speaker 2: from Boston. I think he has a baseball team.

445
00:20:25,640 --> 00:20:27,600
Speaker 7: He has a baseball team that is always in first

446
00:20:27,600 --> 00:20:28,680
Speaker 7: place at the start of the season.

447
00:20:29,359 --> 00:20:32,560
Speaker 2: First place. Well, good, let's let's sake, let's digress it.

448
00:20:32,640 --> 00:20:34,800
Speaker 2: Let's do it, Paul, that was great. Let's do an

449
00:20:34,800 --> 00:20:37,080
Speaker 2: audible here, because Mike Green and I just take it

450
00:20:37,119 --> 00:20:40,359
Speaker 2: for granted. There's a casking trend. And I'm going to

451
00:20:40,400 --> 00:20:43,920
Speaker 2: say thirty five years ago, Paul Ray bar Munroe Trout

452
00:20:43,920 --> 00:20:48,159
Speaker 2: a bunch of other animals figured out, this is m

453
00:20:48,240 --> 00:20:50,080
Speaker 2: I T H. Who do we talk to?

454
00:20:50,200 --> 00:20:55,280
Speaker 5: Up at MI I T Yes, that young lady very smarty, smart.

455
00:20:55,040 --> 00:20:58,160
Speaker 2: And this is Andrew Lowe up at MI T explain

456
00:20:58,520 --> 00:21:02,440
Speaker 2: CTAs and how they are better at not losing money.

457
00:21:03,359 --> 00:21:06,120
Speaker 8: Well, that's a very dangerous and loaded statement.

458
00:21:06,160 --> 00:21:08,520
Speaker 7: But what I would emphasize on any trend following is

459
00:21:08,560 --> 00:21:10,840
Speaker 7: it's very much like an option theory, right. If you

460
00:21:10,880 --> 00:21:14,640
Speaker 7: buy a call option, as the underlying moves into your

461
00:21:14,720 --> 00:21:17,520
Speaker 7: strike price, the delta picks up on that, meaning that

462
00:21:17,560 --> 00:21:20,800
Speaker 7: you are gaining exposure. Trend following just does the exact

463
00:21:20,840 --> 00:21:24,600
Speaker 7: same thing. It increases exposure as the trend increases, but

464
00:21:24,680 --> 00:21:28,560
Speaker 7: it doesn't pay the volatility premium. That's the really key component.

465
00:21:28,560 --> 00:21:32,320
Speaker 7: You effectively flip flip the narrative around. You play the

466
00:21:32,320 --> 00:21:35,240
Speaker 7: dealer who is delta hedging as compared to the buyer

467
00:21:35,280 --> 00:21:39,359
Speaker 7: of the option who's always starting behind. Basically, you know,

468
00:21:39,600 --> 00:21:42,439
Speaker 7: a three ball two strike set up.

469
00:21:42,600 --> 00:21:47,840
Speaker 2: Kati Kaminski's saying, yes, that was very good. Micrain is

470
00:21:47,840 --> 00:21:49,600
Speaker 2: there a trend in place right now.

471
00:21:50,119 --> 00:21:53,280
Speaker 7: Well there has in the equity markets, there had been

472
00:21:53,280 --> 00:21:56,080
Speaker 7: a trend, and so part of what we've actually is

473
00:21:56,080 --> 00:21:59,600
Speaker 7: we've we've removed that element of trend. The CTA has

474
00:21:59,640 --> 00:22:02,320
Speaker 7: been flowning out again. That's another source of these flows

475
00:22:02,320 --> 00:22:07,000
Speaker 7: of funds, which is increasingly the future that we'd emphasize.

476
00:22:07,040 --> 00:22:09,760
Speaker 7: So what I was highlighting earlier about what Europe's doing,

477
00:22:09,840 --> 00:22:13,159
Speaker 7: it's what I would call portfolio effects, poor portfolio rebalancing effects.

478
00:22:13,160 --> 00:22:15,840
Speaker 7: When people choose to make changes to their allocations. We

479
00:22:15,880 --> 00:22:20,159
Speaker 7: see those flows. That impacts currencies, it impacts equities, it

480
00:22:20,200 --> 00:22:21,080
Speaker 7: impacts bond.

481
00:22:20,840 --> 00:22:25,000
Speaker 5: Markets, international investors. We had heard towards year end last year,

482
00:22:25,000 --> 00:22:27,560
Speaker 5: maybe even into the first quot a little bit money

483
00:22:27,640 --> 00:22:30,520
Speaker 5: really coming in from Europe into the US equity markets

484
00:22:30,560 --> 00:22:32,000
Speaker 5: because where.

485
00:22:31,800 --> 00:22:34,640
Speaker 4: Else are you going to go? And has that changed?

486
00:22:35,240 --> 00:22:38,639
Speaker 7: Well, that has changed, right, So that's a component of

487
00:22:38,640 --> 00:22:40,760
Speaker 7: flow has shifted. And again that's part of what I

488
00:22:40,800 --> 00:22:44,960
Speaker 7: would emphasize. When you have discretionary flows, they create these

489
00:22:45,000 --> 00:22:48,600
Speaker 7: kind of waves or disturbances, but it's the structural flows

490
00:22:48,600 --> 00:22:51,919
Speaker 7: that really matter. And so historically we've seen an growing

491
00:22:51,960 --> 00:22:55,200
Speaker 7: fraction of allocated portfolios sending money from Europe.

492
00:22:55,440 --> 00:22:56,199
Speaker 8: If that changes on.

493
00:22:56,200 --> 00:22:58,919
Speaker 7: A structural basis, this is a really big change in

494
00:22:58,960 --> 00:23:00,880
Speaker 7: the American exceptional some story.

495
00:23:01,200 --> 00:23:04,960
Speaker 2: We clearly haven't seen Catharsis yet in no way, shape

496
00:23:05,040 --> 00:23:07,760
Speaker 2: or form. But with a VIX of twenty two, we're

497
00:23:07,760 --> 00:23:09,359
Speaker 2: sort of middling right now.

498
00:23:09,680 --> 00:23:11,800
Speaker 7: Well we are, Yeah, we really are middling. One of

499
00:23:11,840 --> 00:23:14,120
Speaker 7: the things I'd emphasize though, is that the VIX used

500
00:23:14,160 --> 00:23:16,399
Speaker 7: to be used for hedging prior to the advent of

501
00:23:16,480 --> 00:23:19,280
Speaker 7: zero data X ray options and the shorter time component,

502
00:23:19,320 --> 00:23:21,879
Speaker 7: we would have to use that thirty day point for hedging.

503
00:23:22,440 --> 00:23:25,440
Speaker 7: Today not so much. We're actually we're seeing that VIX

504
00:23:25,480 --> 00:23:28,840
Speaker 7: be relevant, I would argue, is heading into this option xpery,

505
00:23:29,240 --> 00:23:31,040
Speaker 7: which is just in a couple of days. Obviously on

506
00:23:31,080 --> 00:23:34,720
Speaker 7: Friday we see option x pery that is actually creating

507
00:23:34,720 --> 00:23:36,920
Speaker 7: a condition under which a lot of funds that had

508
00:23:36,960 --> 00:23:38,320
Speaker 7: created income streams.

509
00:23:38,000 --> 00:23:41,240
Speaker 8: Where they'd sold foot spreads or they'd sold calls, they're somewhat.

510
00:23:40,920 --> 00:23:43,240
Speaker 7: Trapped in that positioning. We're going to get a reset

511
00:23:43,280 --> 00:23:46,159
Speaker 7: with this option reset. I think that could provide some

512
00:23:46,359 --> 00:23:48,800
Speaker 7: relief against some of these I question you're.

513
00:23:48,680 --> 00:23:51,440
Speaker 2: Thinking about, but maybe away from your remit with a

514
00:23:51,560 --> 00:23:55,960
Speaker 2: FED on Wednesday. Is the geopolitics and what we're seeing

515
00:23:55,960 --> 00:23:59,080
Speaker 2: at the White House so overtaken the dialogue. The narrative

516
00:23:59,400 --> 00:24:00,639
Speaker 2: at the FED doesn't matter.

517
00:24:01,280 --> 00:24:03,919
Speaker 8: Well, the FED always matters. Howell could surprise.

518
00:24:04,000 --> 00:24:06,399
Speaker 7: I think we would all be somewhat surprised by anything

519
00:24:06,440 --> 00:24:10,080
Speaker 7: meaningful coming from the FED, given the uncertainty around inflation,

520
00:24:10,320 --> 00:24:14,000
Speaker 7: and candidly, given the uncertainty around the development of the economy.

521
00:24:14,200 --> 00:24:18,040
Speaker 7: Those consumer sentiments components that we indicated are deteriorating at

522
00:24:18,040 --> 00:24:20,560
Speaker 7: an alarming rate. And I agree with that. It hasn't

523
00:24:20,640 --> 00:24:23,600
Speaker 7: yet translated into final sales, and it hasn't translated into

524
00:24:23,680 --> 00:24:26,480
Speaker 7: unemployment claims. And the FED, although I think unemployment claims

525
00:24:26,480 --> 00:24:29,720
Speaker 7: are incredibly misleading, the FED is very focused on that metric.

526
00:24:29,880 --> 00:24:31,880
Speaker 2: Mike Green, thank you so much. Great way to start

527
00:24:31,920 --> 00:24:34,119
Speaker 2: the Can we get to this every Monday? Brain Er

528
00:24:34,200 --> 00:24:36,880
Speaker 2: shine you know Jach Mike Green, thank you so much.

529
00:24:36,920 --> 00:24:38,920
Speaker 2: Simplify asset management.

530
00:24:39,200 --> 00:24:43,080
Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday

531
00:24:43,119 --> 00:24:46,440
Speaker 1: starting at seven am Eastern on Applecarplay and Android Auto

532
00:24:46,560 --> 00:24:49,520
Speaker 1: with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also listen live

533
00:24:49,600 --> 00:24:53,159
Speaker 1: on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station. Just

534
00:24:53,200 --> 00:24:55,720
Speaker 1: say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty.

535
00:24:55,880 --> 00:25:00,879
Speaker 2: Julia Coronado joins, founder President Macropolicy. Respect She's got a

536
00:25:00,880 --> 00:25:05,000
Speaker 2: green plant behind her. Thank you Julia for that. And

537
00:25:05,040 --> 00:25:07,440
Speaker 2: this is important, folks. This is the interview of the

538
00:25:07,560 --> 00:25:11,080
Speaker 2: day because nobody's paying attention to the FED. So we're

539
00:25:11,119 --> 00:25:14,359
Speaker 2: going to dive into this with doctor Coronado. We're gonna

540
00:25:14,359 --> 00:25:19,240
Speaker 2: slow down and spend some time on this. Julia, how

541
00:25:20,240 --> 00:25:25,760
Speaker 2: does a FED synthesize the data in this moment? Do

542
00:25:25,880 --> 00:25:28,040
Speaker 2: they just step back and say we give up.

543
00:25:29,920 --> 00:25:32,080
Speaker 9: Well, I don't think they're going to give up, Tom.

544
00:25:32,640 --> 00:25:35,320
Speaker 9: The FED never gives up, you know that. I think

545
00:25:35,840 --> 00:25:38,840
Speaker 9: what they do, though, is they do step back and

546
00:25:38,880 --> 00:25:42,080
Speaker 9: they say, look, there are competing influences. There's a lot

547
00:25:42,160 --> 00:25:45,920
Speaker 9: going on on the policy front. We just don't know

548
00:25:46,040 --> 00:25:50,840
Speaker 9: Howell in the last his last speech stressed the net

549
00:25:50,880 --> 00:25:54,120
Speaker 9: impact of all of these policies on the economy. They

550
00:25:54,119 --> 00:25:58,280
Speaker 9: go different directions, and so the FED is really going

551
00:25:58,359 --> 00:26:01,440
Speaker 9: to have to wait and see because look, the inflation

552
00:26:01,680 --> 00:26:05,720
Speaker 9: data haven't made the progress that that had wanted. We're

553
00:26:05,760 --> 00:26:10,560
Speaker 9: still hovering above their target. The labor market latest data

554
00:26:10,680 --> 00:26:14,920
Speaker 9: still resilient, So they can afford to wait and see the.

555
00:26:14,920 --> 00:26:17,040
Speaker 2: Money question right now. And I'm going to go back

556
00:26:17,080 --> 00:26:20,359
Speaker 2: to Frank Knight at Chicago and Night in uncertainty and

557
00:26:20,400 --> 00:26:26,600
Speaker 2: the idea of ambiguity. If they cut interest rates, does

558
00:26:26,640 --> 00:26:33,520
Speaker 2: that boost growth, does it boost nominal GDP activity? Or

559
00:26:33,680 --> 00:26:36,200
Speaker 2: we beyond that now where we really don't know the

560
00:26:36,280 --> 00:26:37,959
Speaker 2: outcome of a rate cut.

561
00:26:39,359 --> 00:26:42,439
Speaker 9: It's a great point, Tom. The rate cut isn't going

562
00:26:42,480 --> 00:26:46,440
Speaker 9: to be the antidote to all the worries that investors

563
00:26:46,680 --> 00:26:50,680
Speaker 9: and businesses have right now. There is a tremendous number

564
00:26:51,160 --> 00:26:54,440
Speaker 9: of sources of uncertainty right now. Trade policy is one

565
00:26:54,440 --> 00:26:59,439
Speaker 9: of them. Immigration is another, Cuts and cuts in government

566
00:26:59,560 --> 00:27:07,119
Speaker 9: contracts is another. Reshaping global alliances is another. So I

567
00:27:07,119 --> 00:27:10,800
Speaker 9: think there's just many sources of uncertainty. They collide with

568
00:27:10,880 --> 00:27:15,159
Speaker 9: each other. It's very difficult for businesses to make longer

569
00:27:15,240 --> 00:27:17,639
Speaker 9: term plans. Of course, everybody we all get up in

570
00:27:17,680 --> 00:27:20,440
Speaker 9: the morning and go to work and run our businesses

571
00:27:20,480 --> 00:27:23,200
Speaker 9: and do our jobs. But are you going to make

572
00:27:23,240 --> 00:27:27,119
Speaker 9: the bigger decisions about hiring, about cap x, about moving

573
00:27:27,160 --> 00:27:33,560
Speaker 9: forward with strategic initiatives in this environment? It's difficult, It's challenging.

574
00:27:33,640 --> 00:27:37,720
Speaker 9: So Noah, Rate cut. Isn't the antidote to the uncertainty

575
00:27:37,760 --> 00:27:38,680
Speaker 9: that we face.

576
00:27:39,280 --> 00:27:43,120
Speaker 5: Joya, the uncertainty that you mentioned from whether it's tariff

577
00:27:43,160 --> 00:27:45,800
Speaker 5: talk or just you know, doze and things like that.

578
00:27:45,880 --> 00:27:51,080
Speaker 5: It's certainly calling the question growth forecasts, inflation forecasts, and

579
00:27:51,119 --> 00:27:53,000
Speaker 5: we saw at the University of Michigan data last week

580
00:27:53,200 --> 00:27:56,320
Speaker 5: really captured that uncertainty in the market place.

581
00:27:56,400 --> 00:27:58,280
Speaker 4: Yes, the Trope.

582
00:27:58,040 --> 00:28:00,760
Speaker 5: Administration says, Okay, that's some near term pain for some

583
00:28:00,840 --> 00:28:03,960
Speaker 5: long term gain. Do you see the long term gain

584
00:28:04,080 --> 00:28:07,920
Speaker 5: or how do you kind of think about that story?

585
00:28:07,960 --> 00:28:11,840
Speaker 9: You know, it's it's difficult right now to see what

586
00:28:11,920 --> 00:28:14,800
Speaker 9: the strategy is, what is the you know, we all

587
00:28:14,880 --> 00:28:16,760
Speaker 9: knew that there was going to be a trade war.

588
00:28:17,520 --> 00:28:21,639
Speaker 9: We believe that the focus was on unfair trading practices

589
00:28:21,680 --> 00:28:24,359
Speaker 9: in China and that China would be the focal point

590
00:28:24,440 --> 00:28:29,000
Speaker 9: and then there would be other secondary initiatives. And now

591
00:28:29,040 --> 00:28:31,879
Speaker 9: the focal point is our main trading partners of Canada

592
00:28:31,920 --> 00:28:36,119
Speaker 9: and Mexico. And what's the endgame? What's the strategy? I

593
00:28:36,160 --> 00:28:39,960
Speaker 9: think that's that's what's harder to see. It's it's a

594
00:28:40,040 --> 00:28:44,600
Speaker 9: little cheeky of Secretary Best to suggest that this is

595
00:28:44,680 --> 00:28:47,240
Speaker 9: just near term pain for long term gain. When markets

596
00:28:47,280 --> 00:28:50,560
Speaker 9: are inherently supposed to be forward looking, right, We're supposed

597
00:28:50,600 --> 00:28:54,800
Speaker 9: to see through the trade offs and if we can see, okay,

598
00:28:54,840 --> 00:28:57,720
Speaker 9: we're gonna get this now and then, but we can

599
00:28:57,760 --> 00:29:01,640
Speaker 9: see where we're going, and markets maybe wouldn't be so

600
00:29:01,840 --> 00:29:05,720
Speaker 9: volatile or struggling to see the through line of all

601
00:29:05,760 --> 00:29:11,000
Speaker 9: of this. I don't think it's clear, and it's chaotic,

602
00:29:11,440 --> 00:29:15,360
Speaker 9: and so I think that's what's lacking.

603
00:29:15,600 --> 00:29:18,640
Speaker 2: Julia Carnado with as we continue with doctor Coronado here

604
00:29:18,680 --> 00:29:21,840
Speaker 2: on the Saint Patrick's Day across the nation on your commute,

605
00:29:21,920 --> 00:29:24,160
Speaker 2: we say good morning, Good morning ninety nine to one

606
00:29:24,440 --> 00:29:28,520
Speaker 2: FM and a very active Washington on YouTube. Subscribe to

607
00:29:28,520 --> 00:29:32,360
Speaker 2: Bloomberg Podcast. We are humbled, Paul, and I are absolutely humbled.

608
00:29:32,640 --> 00:29:35,000
Speaker 2: And how it's growing each and every day, Paul, did

609
00:29:35,120 --> 00:29:39,000
Speaker 2: our future is deteriorate slightly down negative two hundred, SPX,

610
00:29:39,160 --> 00:29:41,920
Speaker 2: negative eighteen, the Vicks twenty two point twenty five.

611
00:29:42,120 --> 00:29:45,760
Speaker 5: Absolutely, Tom, So, Julia, have you taken down or do

612
00:29:45,800 --> 00:29:48,520
Speaker 5: you expect to take down your GDP? I'll look for

613
00:29:48,640 --> 00:29:49,800
Speaker 5: maybe this year next year.

614
00:29:51,040 --> 00:29:56,440
Speaker 9: We started the year below consensus because our emphasis was

615
00:29:56,480 --> 00:29:58,920
Speaker 9: that some of the policies that are going to be

616
00:29:59,040 --> 00:30:02,640
Speaker 9: negative for growth are going to happen before the policies

617
00:30:02,960 --> 00:30:06,800
Speaker 9: that are positive for growth, and that seems to be

618
00:30:06,880 --> 00:30:09,720
Speaker 9: playing out. So we are at one point four percent

619
00:30:10,640 --> 00:30:14,480
Speaker 9: for GDP this year, and that is something that we

620
00:30:14,560 --> 00:30:17,640
Speaker 9: had kind of starting where we are around two percent

621
00:30:17,720 --> 00:30:22,320
Speaker 9: and then slowing as the year unfolds, given specifically reduced

622
00:30:22,320 --> 00:30:26,479
Speaker 9: immigration and trade wars. I think that you know, we

623
00:30:26,640 --> 00:30:29,880
Speaker 9: just did a survey of market participants, which we do

624
00:30:29,960 --> 00:30:34,560
Speaker 9: every quarter ahead of the FED meetings, and investors are

625
00:30:34,600 --> 00:30:39,040
Speaker 9: also taking down their median growth forecast went from two

626
00:30:39,120 --> 00:30:42,680
Speaker 9: point two percent for this year down to one point

627
00:30:42,720 --> 00:30:46,600
Speaker 9: five percent for this year, and that's very striking result.

628
00:30:46,720 --> 00:30:50,200
Speaker 9: And we asked a lot of questions about the individual

629
00:30:50,320 --> 00:30:53,480
Speaker 9: policies and the net effect of all of the policies,

630
00:30:53,520 --> 00:30:56,880
Speaker 9: and on balance, they are expected to be growth negative

631
00:30:56,920 --> 00:30:57,480
Speaker 9: for this year.

632
00:30:57,760 --> 00:31:01,400
Speaker 2: Have you marked down nominal GDP or is it such

633
00:31:01,440 --> 00:31:05,520
Speaker 2: a stagflation that inflation stays up and supports the animal spirit.

634
00:31:06,480 --> 00:31:09,520
Speaker 9: We do have a little bit of the stagflation flavor,

635
00:31:09,600 --> 00:31:12,600
Speaker 9: at least for this year. We kind of see this

636
00:31:12,680 --> 00:31:17,760
Speaker 9: as macroeconomists unfolding with a shock to prices from tariffs,

637
00:31:18,280 --> 00:31:21,600
Speaker 9: and that in and of itself is demand destroying, and

638
00:31:21,680 --> 00:31:24,680
Speaker 9: that may lead to lower inflation in twenty twenty six,

639
00:31:25,280 --> 00:31:27,760
Speaker 9: but what you get in the near term is a

640
00:31:27,800 --> 00:31:32,120
Speaker 9: burst of inflation that keeps the FED from stepping in

641
00:31:32,200 --> 00:31:35,520
Speaker 9: as early or as aggressively as they typically would.

642
00:31:35,960 --> 00:31:41,040
Speaker 2: I'm absolutely fascinated in this milieu of the effect of

643
00:31:41,080 --> 00:31:44,000
Speaker 2: the FED, and have they become impotent?

644
00:31:45,640 --> 00:31:49,520
Speaker 9: You know, we said that before the pandemic, and then

645
00:31:49,560 --> 00:31:54,120
Speaker 9: the FED stepped in and proved us wrong. So I

646
00:31:54,200 --> 00:31:58,480
Speaker 9: would never say that monetary policy is impotent. What I

647
00:31:58,560 --> 00:32:01,280
Speaker 9: would say is that they are likely to face, at

648
00:32:01,360 --> 00:32:06,360
Speaker 9: least in the near term, conflicting pressures on their dual mandates.

649
00:32:06,560 --> 00:32:09,320
Speaker 9: We may see the labor market deteriorate, but we may

650
00:32:09,320 --> 00:32:13,720
Speaker 9: see inflation drift higher. That combination is just going to

651
00:32:13,800 --> 00:32:17,640
Speaker 9: keep them on the sidelines for longer, unless until either

652
00:32:17,760 --> 00:32:20,960
Speaker 9: the best and rosy view of a better future plays

653
00:32:20,960 --> 00:32:26,320
Speaker 9: out and they don't have to do anything, or the recession,

654
00:32:27,000 --> 00:32:31,480
Speaker 9: you know, ferries start to sprinkle their dust on the

655
00:32:31,600 --> 00:32:35,560
Speaker 9: US economy and the FED ends up cutting rates more

656
00:32:35,600 --> 00:32:37,400
Speaker 9: aggressively than is currently priced.

657
00:32:37,400 --> 00:32:39,200
Speaker 2: I mean, Paul got a couple more questions in there,

658
00:32:39,240 --> 00:32:42,760
Speaker 2: but The overwhelming thing to me is the labor data. Yeah,

659
00:32:42,880 --> 00:32:46,479
Speaker 2: it's deteriorated at what the last four days. I mean,

660
00:32:46,480 --> 00:32:47,440
Speaker 2: I'm not making this up.

661
00:32:47,520 --> 00:32:47,720
Speaker 4: Now.

662
00:32:47,760 --> 00:32:49,880
Speaker 2: Their hockeystick moves and we're.

663
00:32:49,720 --> 00:32:51,680
Speaker 5: Going to see I mean, Joya, we're going to see

664
00:32:51,680 --> 00:32:54,520
Speaker 5: some retail sales data today. I think you are a

665
00:32:54,560 --> 00:32:57,560
Speaker 5: little bit neurse about that, given that you mish sentiment

666
00:32:57,680 --> 00:32:59,440
Speaker 5: data from last week here.

667
00:32:59,560 --> 00:33:01,239
Speaker 4: How do you think the consumer's doing right here?

668
00:33:02,640 --> 00:33:05,120
Speaker 9: Yeah, you know, consumers, it's hard to count them out.

669
00:33:05,160 --> 00:33:08,239
Speaker 9: They we saw some softness in January. Some of that

670
00:33:08,360 --> 00:33:10,640
Speaker 9: looked to be when I look at the consumer data,

671
00:33:10,720 --> 00:33:13,600
Speaker 9: I see some evidence that there was a pull forward

672
00:33:13,680 --> 00:33:17,280
Speaker 9: of durable goods spending in Q four ahead of the tariff.

673
00:33:17,320 --> 00:33:21,120
Speaker 9: So we saw autos and electronic sales really surge in

674
00:33:21,240 --> 00:33:23,720
Speaker 9: Q four. So we're kind of due for a little

675
00:33:23,720 --> 00:33:26,800
Speaker 9: bit of a pothole just because that was a pull forward.

676
00:33:27,880 --> 00:33:28,640
Speaker 4: But we are going to.

677
00:33:28,640 --> 00:33:31,200
Speaker 9: Look at sort of the core or the control retail

678
00:33:31,240 --> 00:33:36,120
Speaker 9: sales categories, the really discretionary areas, like you know, restaurant

679
00:33:36,200 --> 00:33:42,720
Speaker 9: spending or clothing spending. Our consumers being cautious in those areas,

680
00:33:42,760 --> 00:33:46,680
Speaker 9: that's usually an early indicator that they're pulling back more broadly, So.

681
00:33:46,720 --> 00:33:51,000
Speaker 2: You've got a central banker running Canada. Your comment on

682
00:33:51,080 --> 00:33:56,400
Speaker 2: Mark Kearney's ability to lead Canada forward, Yeah.

683
00:33:56,160 --> 00:33:59,640
Speaker 9: He's a He's an intriguing choice, not a politician, a

684
00:33:59,640 --> 00:34:05,480
Speaker 9: central banker multiple times, certainly, you know he has the chops,

685
00:34:05,840 --> 00:34:09,319
Speaker 9: he knows policy. He's been a global leader, so he

686
00:34:09,440 --> 00:34:13,000
Speaker 9: has all the relationships that are kind of needed at

687
00:34:13,080 --> 00:34:17,719
Speaker 9: this moment. Canada has to restructure its trading relationships, its

688
00:34:17,760 --> 00:34:21,640
Speaker 9: strategic relationships given what the US is doing. And Mark

689
00:34:21,680 --> 00:34:24,240
Speaker 9: Carney's I mean, I can't think of a better person

690
00:34:25,040 --> 00:34:30,000
Speaker 9: to help lead that effort, which is so critical right now.

691
00:34:30,040 --> 00:34:34,520
Speaker 9: So he's an unusual candidate, but but somebody that you know,

692
00:34:35,080 --> 00:34:37,040
Speaker 9: he definitely has the policy depth.

693
00:34:37,400 --> 00:34:42,360
Speaker 2: Julie, your plants are very green, doctor with metro policy.

694
00:34:42,640 --> 00:34:45,919
Speaker 2: I tried Bector, thank you so much. Sweening to the rescue.

695
00:34:46,800 --> 00:34:49,800
Speaker 2: Why are retail sales out of Monday? It's out America.

696
00:34:49,840 --> 00:34:51,600
Speaker 4: I know, I'm not sure. We'll see what happens here.

697
00:34:51,960 --> 00:34:56,160
Speaker 2: Eight thirty yeah, exact, fifteen minutes, folks, mind freeze. I

698
00:34:56,160 --> 00:35:00,200
Speaker 2: was worried about my bracket. Yes, instead of retail sales, go.

699
00:35:00,760 --> 00:35:04,040
Speaker 2: I still further I haven't got the final four, you know.

700
00:35:04,160 --> 00:35:06,160
Speaker 2: I don't know if you know this, folks. They got

701
00:35:06,200 --> 00:35:09,759
Speaker 2: like an eight hundred page agreement. It's like codified in

702
00:35:09,800 --> 00:35:12,400
Speaker 2: page four seventy two says I have to put Purdue.

703
00:35:12,760 --> 00:35:15,880
Speaker 5: Yeah, to final makers engine it's engineering staff bracket.

704
00:35:16,400 --> 00:35:19,600
Speaker 2: Yep. Absolutely, I lose every year on Purdue. Are they

705
00:35:19,600 --> 00:35:20,399
Speaker 2: any good this year?

706
00:35:20,760 --> 00:35:21,280
Speaker 4: Not as goosed?

707
00:35:21,280 --> 00:35:22,799
Speaker 5: I've been the best couple of years, I don't think,

708
00:35:22,800 --> 00:35:24,839
Speaker 5: but they're always good coming out of ten.

709
00:35:24,960 --> 00:35:27,719
Speaker 2: We're working at it as well. Julia Carnido, thank you

710
00:35:27,760 --> 00:35:29,759
Speaker 2: so much. That was very informative.

711
00:35:35,680 --> 00:35:39,600
Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday

712
00:35:39,600 --> 00:35:42,600
Speaker 1: starting at seven am Eastern on Apple Corplay and Android

713
00:35:42,640 --> 00:35:45,680
Speaker 1: Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also watch

714
00:35:45,719 --> 00:35:48,680
Speaker 1: us live every weekday on YouTube and always on the

715
00:35:48,719 --> 00:35:49,800
Speaker 1: Bloomberg terminal.

716
00:35:50,239 --> 00:35:53,799
Speaker 2: Sometimes in the in the racket, you get lucky as well.

717
00:35:53,840 --> 00:35:56,279
Speaker 2: I'm going to do a statement here of all the

718
00:35:56,320 --> 00:36:00,200
Speaker 2: people helping us this morning Bloomberg Surveillance. This morning, we're

719
00:36:00,200 --> 00:36:04,319
Speaker 2: bunching by IBKR well US natural gas production? Will it

720
00:36:04,440 --> 00:36:09,160
Speaker 2: exceed three point two seven billion cubic feet in January?

721
00:36:09,440 --> 00:36:13,600
Speaker 2: At IBKR Forecast trader that yes, was recently at nine percent.

722
00:36:13,719 --> 00:36:18,399
Speaker 2: Check the data spot the trends start predicting today at

723
00:36:18,400 --> 00:36:23,520
Speaker 2: ibkr dot com slash forecast. Sometimes you get lucky you

724
00:36:23,560 --> 00:36:26,319
Speaker 2: have somebody in because there's lots going on. Whatever they do,

725
00:36:27,840 --> 00:36:34,239
Speaker 2: and then something over the weekend happens. Julie Norman established

726
00:36:35,239 --> 00:36:40,719
Speaker 2: besides her fandom of the Baltimore Orioles, she established the

727
00:36:40,880 --> 00:36:44,799
Speaker 2: academic study of terrorism and particularly with an angle to

728
00:36:44,840 --> 00:36:47,640
Speaker 2: the Middle East. And to have her on here after

729
00:36:47,680 --> 00:36:51,319
Speaker 2: what we see in Yemen is truly a pleasure from

730
00:36:51,320 --> 00:36:56,480
Speaker 2: the University College London professor Norman. This morning, when we

731
00:36:56,560 --> 00:37:02,239
Speaker 2: go in with jets, multimillion dollar jets, an attack the huties,

732
00:37:02,400 --> 00:37:08,359
Speaker 2: Julie described the landscape of Yemen and wherever the hooties are.

733
00:37:09,800 --> 00:37:12,880
Speaker 10: Yeah, good morning, Tom. I'm not sure I've created the

734
00:37:12,920 --> 00:37:16,080
Speaker 10: field of terrorism studies, but nice to be with you. Yeah,

735
00:37:16,080 --> 00:37:17,680
Speaker 10: I mean so, I would say at first, I would

736
00:37:17,680 --> 00:37:19,840
Speaker 10: say these are not the first strikes on Yemen that

737
00:37:20,000 --> 00:37:22,520
Speaker 10: the US has been taking. There were numerous strikes that

738
00:37:22,560 --> 00:37:27,600
Speaker 10: were undertaken under the Biden administration when these Houthi strikes

739
00:37:27,640 --> 00:37:30,600
Speaker 10: on ships in the Red Sea started over a year ago.

740
00:37:30,640 --> 00:37:34,520
Speaker 10: So this has been ongoing. Yemen is a country that

741
00:37:34,920 --> 00:37:38,680
Speaker 10: the government is divided. The Houthis on control the capital

742
00:37:38,680 --> 00:37:40,920
Speaker 10: of Sunna and some of the northern areas. This is

743
00:37:40,920 --> 00:37:44,480
Speaker 10: where most of the strikes took place. But again I

744
00:37:44,480 --> 00:37:46,759
Speaker 10: would say this is something that is happening in a

745
00:37:46,800 --> 00:37:49,360
Speaker 10: wider regional moment as well. A lot of this is

746
00:37:49,400 --> 00:37:52,440
Speaker 10: Trump trying to put pressure on Iran. I think this

747
00:37:52,520 --> 00:37:55,920
Speaker 10: is really where this where these strikes over the weekend

748
00:37:55,960 --> 00:37:58,960
Speaker 10: are coming from, and we can kind of expect some escalation.

749
00:37:59,040 --> 00:38:01,440
Speaker 2: What we saw over the weekend, is it like isis

750
00:38:01,480 --> 00:38:03,600
Speaker 2: where we're going after leaders.

751
00:38:04,920 --> 00:38:06,680
Speaker 10: I would say it's a little bit different than isis.

752
00:38:06,760 --> 00:38:09,360
Speaker 10: I mean, first, this group is just very different. They're

753
00:38:09,440 --> 00:38:12,399
Speaker 10: a rebel movement. They emerged about ten years ago. They

754
00:38:12,520 --> 00:38:16,200
Speaker 10: again control different parts of the country, and when we're

755
00:38:16,239 --> 00:38:20,000
Speaker 10: going after them now, it's mainly this not for what

756
00:38:20,040 --> 00:38:24,320
Speaker 10: they're doing internally. So much is their strikes on global

757
00:38:24,320 --> 00:38:26,640
Speaker 10: shipping in the Red Sea as well as US military

758
00:38:26,680 --> 00:38:29,760
Speaker 10: assets there as well. Some of the strikes are targeting

759
00:38:29,960 --> 00:38:35,560
Speaker 10: military infrastructure, the abilities from the Huthis themselves. But over

760
00:38:35,560 --> 00:38:38,840
Speaker 10: the weekend they did start targeting leadership, and by targeting

761
00:38:38,880 --> 00:38:42,480
Speaker 10: leadership that also means you're often targeting residential areas. So

762
00:38:42,520 --> 00:38:45,520
Speaker 10: we did see a much higher casualty rate over the weekend,

763
00:38:45,760 --> 00:38:47,880
Speaker 10: estimates over fifty, possibly as high as one hundred.

764
00:38:48,960 --> 00:38:52,360
Speaker 5: Julie, what do we know about the Trump administration's policy

765
00:38:52,400 --> 00:38:53,760
Speaker 5: towards Iran?

766
00:38:54,120 --> 00:38:55,400
Speaker 4: How do you think they're going to approach it?

767
00:38:56,520 --> 00:38:59,840
Speaker 10: Yeah, well, I mean we've obviously heard the maximum pressure

768
00:39:00,600 --> 00:39:02,600
Speaker 10: speak for a while, and I think we're starting to

769
00:39:02,640 --> 00:39:04,839
Speaker 10: see what that looks like. You know, we've already seen

770
00:39:05,280 --> 00:39:08,520
Speaker 10: much harder sanctions going on for Iran, which was expected,

771
00:39:08,800 --> 00:39:12,000
Speaker 10: but moreover, we saw this letter sent by Trump to

772
00:39:12,120 --> 00:39:16,120
Speaker 10: Iran last week essentially saying you need to negotiate and

773
00:39:16,160 --> 00:39:19,520
Speaker 10: essentially give up the nuclear program or be prepared for

774
00:39:19,560 --> 00:39:22,120
Speaker 10: military action to take it out. And we assume that

775
00:39:22,120 --> 00:39:25,240
Speaker 10: would be you know, through US and possibly with Israel

776
00:39:25,280 --> 00:39:27,960
Speaker 10: as well, which has been threatened in the past. So

777
00:39:28,080 --> 00:39:31,080
Speaker 10: this is what I think is rationing up now. And

778
00:39:31,120 --> 00:39:33,719
Speaker 10: I think these strikes on the who Thi's were part

779
00:39:33,760 --> 00:39:37,840
Speaker 10: of the Trump administration's calculations for that. With that said,

780
00:39:38,200 --> 00:39:40,680
Speaker 10: for me, the Huthis operate with a bit more autonomy

781
00:39:40,680 --> 00:39:44,600
Speaker 10: from Iran than I think administration is recognizing here, and

782
00:39:44,640 --> 00:39:46,560
Speaker 10: I'm not sure how much Iran could rain them in

783
00:39:46,640 --> 00:39:47,960
Speaker 10: even if they wanted to do.

784
00:39:48,000 --> 00:39:51,000
Speaker 2: They have defenses. I mean, I just I'm trying to

785
00:39:51,040 --> 00:39:54,400
Speaker 2: frame out. I get the landscape. My amateur take is

786
00:39:54,440 --> 00:39:57,040
Speaker 2: it's a lot of desert, a lot of poverty. You know,

787
00:39:57,080 --> 00:39:59,560
Speaker 2: I don't want to be simplistic about it. But like

788
00:39:59,600 --> 00:40:05,279
Speaker 2: when Aur when our jets go in Paul Delay, like

789
00:40:05,360 --> 00:40:10,560
Speaker 2: have anti aircraft. I mean, is there risks here? Professor Norman, So.

790
00:40:10,719 --> 00:40:13,200
Speaker 10: I would say some, There is some. I would say,

791
00:40:13,200 --> 00:40:15,799
Speaker 10: what do these do best? Is they use a lot

792
00:40:15,800 --> 00:40:19,239
Speaker 10: of drones. They use a lot of strikes of their own. Externally,

793
00:40:19,719 --> 00:40:23,759
Speaker 10: they don't have a super sophisticated missile defense system or

794
00:40:23,800 --> 00:40:26,000
Speaker 10: something like that that I think would put us at

795
00:40:26,080 --> 00:40:28,759
Speaker 10: direct risk from some of these things. But they will

796
00:40:28,800 --> 00:40:31,879
Speaker 10: retaliate again mostly where they can do it best again

797
00:40:31,920 --> 00:40:34,120
Speaker 10: on that shipping that's coming through the waterways, where they

798
00:40:34,239 --> 00:40:37,160
Speaker 10: essentially have a straight shot there. But in terms of

799
00:40:37,200 --> 00:40:41,560
Speaker 10: overall military capacity, this is obviously something where there's a

800
00:40:41,600 --> 00:40:44,239
Speaker 10: reason why the US has has so many assets in

801
00:40:44,239 --> 00:40:46,000
Speaker 10: the region is to to try and push back at

802
00:40:46,000 --> 00:40:49,279
Speaker 10: groups like this. But even with limited sophistication, they can

803
00:40:49,320 --> 00:40:51,920
Speaker 10: still be incredibly disruptive Julie.

804
00:40:52,120 --> 00:40:55,840
Speaker 5: Tomorrow, there's a scheduled call between President Trump and mister Putin.

805
00:40:56,080 --> 00:40:57,799
Speaker 4: What do you expect to hear from that call?

806
00:40:59,120 --> 00:41:00,799
Speaker 10: Well, I would say I think we're all waiting to

807
00:41:00,840 --> 00:41:04,080
Speaker 10: hear what is said. I mean, obviously there's this discussion

808
00:41:04,160 --> 00:41:08,560
Speaker 10: now of a thirty day ceasefire. Ukraine has agreed to it.

809
00:41:09,160 --> 00:41:12,319
Speaker 10: Putin has not said no, but has certainly said there

810
00:41:12,320 --> 00:41:14,560
Speaker 10: are going to be major conditions and things he wants

811
00:41:14,600 --> 00:41:17,640
Speaker 10: to discuss. We heard from Trump's envoy over the weekend

812
00:41:17,680 --> 00:41:20,239
Speaker 10: that they're moving closer to some kinds of agreement. But

813
00:41:20,320 --> 00:41:22,480
Speaker 10: I think what's really going to be on the table

814
00:41:22,680 --> 00:41:25,120
Speaker 10: is what does Putin actually want and how willing is

815
00:41:25,160 --> 00:41:28,080
Speaker 10: Trump to essentially give it to him in order to

816
00:41:28,719 --> 00:41:31,680
Speaker 10: get to some kind of you know, ceasefire, pause, truce,

817
00:41:31,719 --> 00:41:32,160
Speaker 10: what have you.

818
00:41:32,840 --> 00:41:37,600
Speaker 2: Why should Putin agree with Trump? I don't get it.

819
00:41:39,400 --> 00:41:41,360
Speaker 10: Yeah, I mean I would say I'm not sure that

820
00:41:41,360 --> 00:41:44,120
Speaker 10: that he will, And I think there's probably more gap,

821
00:41:44,280 --> 00:41:47,680
Speaker 10: more of a gap between them than Trump maybe wants

822
00:41:47,719 --> 00:41:51,400
Speaker 10: to realize. Right now, I mean, right now, there is

823
00:41:51,480 --> 00:41:55,040
Speaker 10: again this idea of re engagement with the US, ever,

824
00:41:55,000 --> 00:41:58,160
Speaker 10: reopening diplomatic channels of, you know, easing some of the

825
00:41:58,200 --> 00:42:00,799
Speaker 10: tensions that have obviously been in play for the last

826
00:42:00,840 --> 00:42:03,120
Speaker 10: four years, and there's a lot of incentive for Russia

827
00:42:03,160 --> 00:42:04,000
Speaker 10: to want that to happen.

828
00:42:04,560 --> 00:42:07,400
Speaker 2: Okay, Julie, we really don't care. I mean, the reason

829
00:42:07,440 --> 00:42:10,839
Speaker 2: you're on is I'm filling out my bracket. I'm fed

830
00:42:10,920 --> 00:42:14,520
Speaker 2: up with Sweeney Duke, Duke Duke. I mean you do

831
00:42:14,640 --> 00:42:19,360
Speaker 2: have Duke Alabama in the East as well. Do you

832
00:42:19,400 --> 00:42:22,160
Speaker 2: fill out a bracket at the University of College London?

833
00:42:22,920 --> 00:42:25,319
Speaker 10: Oh yeah, I mean I went to Duke Tom So

834
00:42:25,560 --> 00:42:28,239
Speaker 10: I'm like, I'm all ready for brackets, and so Duke

835
00:42:28,280 --> 00:42:30,200
Speaker 10: goes all the way from me every year, even when

836
00:42:30,200 --> 00:42:32,399
Speaker 10: they're not having a good year. But I'm definitely going

837
00:42:32,440 --> 00:42:35,319
Speaker 10: number one for Duke right now. And yeah, I'm super

838
00:42:35,320 --> 00:42:37,200
Speaker 10: excited about the tournament. So I think you should listen

839
00:42:37,239 --> 00:42:38,400
Speaker 10: to all these days.

840
00:42:38,200 --> 00:42:38,759
Speaker 4: There we go.

841
00:42:39,400 --> 00:42:41,279
Speaker 5: Hey, Julie, you know, we're two months a little bit

842
00:42:41,320 --> 00:42:44,759
Speaker 5: more than two months into the President Trump administration here,

843
00:42:44,760 --> 00:42:47,200
Speaker 5: and it seems to be from a foreign policy perspective,

844
00:42:47,200 --> 00:42:48,640
Speaker 5: a little bit of a kind of a go at

845
00:42:48,640 --> 00:42:51,840
Speaker 5: a loan type of thing, kind of disengaging to various degrees.

846
00:42:51,840 --> 00:42:54,600
Speaker 5: From our our allies. As you sit back and look

847
00:42:54,600 --> 00:42:57,040
Speaker 5: at this, how do you frame it out?

848
00:42:58,560 --> 00:43:01,280
Speaker 10: Yeah, well, Paul, I would say here over in London,

849
00:43:01,280 --> 00:43:04,359
Speaker 10: people definitely aren't sitting back. They're sitting up very rapt

850
00:43:04,360 --> 00:43:07,880
Speaker 10: attention at how the US is changing very quickly. You know,

851
00:43:07,920 --> 00:43:11,840
Speaker 10: there's a real worry right now, not only for the US,

852
00:43:12,000 --> 00:43:14,800
Speaker 10: you know, changing on some policy things, but really being

853
00:43:15,400 --> 00:43:19,239
Speaker 10: you know, potentially an unreliable actor and unreliable ally and

854
00:43:19,280 --> 00:43:23,080
Speaker 10: in some ways even adversarial in many spheres. And I

855
00:43:23,120 --> 00:43:26,239
Speaker 10: think the world is watching very closely to see is

856
00:43:26,239 --> 00:43:29,400
Speaker 10: this just a short term run, is this bluster or

857
00:43:29,480 --> 00:43:31,960
Speaker 10: is this a real change in how we do things?

858
00:43:32,239 --> 00:43:36,799
Speaker 2: What does a change? Professor Norman of Trump foreign policy

859
00:43:36,920 --> 00:43:41,200
Speaker 2: slash military policy first term and second term. What's the

860
00:43:41,239 --> 00:43:42,000
Speaker 2: distinction there?

861
00:43:43,160 --> 00:43:46,320
Speaker 10: Yeah, So I would say first term Trump overall was

862
00:43:47,080 --> 00:43:50,080
Speaker 10: more isolationist, and we heard that, you know language obviously

863
00:43:50,160 --> 00:43:53,160
Speaker 10: in the campaign for the second term also. But with

864
00:43:53,280 --> 00:43:55,440
Speaker 10: the second term, if anything, we've seen more of an

865
00:43:55,440 --> 00:44:00,560
Speaker 10: interventionist foreign policy, not so much with military force. Would say.

866
00:44:00,880 --> 00:44:03,160
Speaker 10: One reason that the attacks over the weekend stood out

867
00:44:03,239 --> 00:44:06,279
Speaker 10: is it does indicate that the administration kenon will use

868
00:44:06,320 --> 00:44:11,600
Speaker 10: military force but really much more of an expansion, you know, Panama, Dreamland, Gaza,

869
00:44:11,680 --> 00:44:14,960
Speaker 10: these areas that we're not really talked about as focus areas,

870
00:44:15,400 --> 00:44:17,360
Speaker 10: but the US obviously has interests there on Trump is

871
00:44:17,400 --> 00:44:18,120
Speaker 10: going to push for them.

872
00:44:18,400 --> 00:44:20,520
Speaker 2: Julie Norman, thank you so much. Next time you're on,

873
00:44:20,640 --> 00:44:23,799
Speaker 2: we'll frame out Orioles Baseball as only that you can do.

874
00:44:23,960 --> 00:44:27,880
Speaker 2: Professor the University College of London.

875
00:44:28,040 --> 00:44:31,920
Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday

876
00:44:31,960 --> 00:44:34,960
Speaker 1: starting at seven am Eastern on Apple Cockplay and Android

877
00:44:35,000 --> 00:44:38,040
Speaker 1: Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also listen

878
00:44:38,120 --> 00:44:41,359
Speaker 1: live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station.

879
00:44:41,920 --> 00:44:44,920
Speaker 1: Just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty.

880
00:44:45,080 --> 00:44:47,440
Speaker 2: Right to the newspapers, Sie, right, We're right to the

881
00:44:47,480 --> 00:44:50,000
Speaker 2: newspapers this morning. Thank you. I'm a rad elier. For

882
00:44:50,040 --> 00:44:52,640
Speaker 2: those on YouTube, somebody sayment says, how do you tie

883
00:44:52,640 --> 00:44:54,919
Speaker 2: a bow tie? We're not gonna know. We're not gonna

884
00:44:54,960 --> 00:44:58,200
Speaker 2: waste time now. Lisa's time is to prefer. But in

885
00:44:58,239 --> 00:45:00,160
Speaker 2: the next block, you know, I'll do the quick vo

886
00:45:00,280 --> 00:45:03,080
Speaker 2: tie tie thing. I did it on LinkedIn years ago.

887
00:45:03,120 --> 00:45:06,200
Speaker 2: What a weekend for the newspapers they were on fire.

888
00:45:06,480 --> 00:45:08,200
Speaker 6: Yeah, there was a lot going on, all right, So

889
00:45:08,400 --> 00:45:10,759
Speaker 6: this one I want to start with because this is

890
00:45:10,760 --> 00:45:13,279
Speaker 6: from Bloomberg screen Time. Lucas Shaw put out this great

891
00:45:13,320 --> 00:45:16,279
Speaker 6: article about the next CEO of Dwell Street. Yeah, they

892
00:45:16,320 --> 00:45:19,200
Speaker 6: say it's in full swing. So they're saying that there

893
00:45:19,200 --> 00:45:23,640
Speaker 6: are two leading candidates. We go to entertainment Coachair Dana Walden.

894
00:45:24,160 --> 00:45:26,400
Speaker 6: She was at this Morgan Stanley conference talking about the

895
00:45:26,440 --> 00:45:29,000
Speaker 6: profitability of Disney streaming services and they said, what that

896
00:45:29,040 --> 00:45:31,080
Speaker 6: shows is that her chance to show the ability to

897
00:45:31,120 --> 00:45:33,920
Speaker 6: handle that Wall Street side of being in a CEO.

898
00:45:34,440 --> 00:45:37,600
Speaker 6: And then you have Parks chief Josh Diamaro. He spoke

899
00:45:37,640 --> 00:45:40,440
Speaker 6: at another event about his creative ideas. But what that

900
00:45:40,520 --> 00:45:44,080
Speaker 6: showed is at how a parksky can handle TV and film,

901
00:45:44,120 --> 00:45:47,080
Speaker 6: So it's showing different sides. He talked about video games too,

902
00:45:47,120 --> 00:45:49,080
Speaker 6: which is apparently a possible growth.

903
00:45:48,920 --> 00:45:51,640
Speaker 2: Areas the previous guy that got fired.

904
00:45:51,719 --> 00:45:53,359
Speaker 4: He was a was a parks guy.

905
00:45:53,440 --> 00:45:55,560
Speaker 5: That's right, But I mean, parks are now the biggest

906
00:45:55,800 --> 00:45:58,400
Speaker 5: profit contributor to the entire company, So you have to

907
00:45:58,400 --> 00:46:00,440
Speaker 5: give the Park TI a certain come on.

908
00:46:00,480 --> 00:46:02,239
Speaker 2: Come on, the parks guy's going to sit in a

909
00:46:02,320 --> 00:46:05,640
Speaker 2: meeting with the three representatives for the rock, right, and

910
00:46:05,800 --> 00:46:08,040
Speaker 2: go back and forth exactly. I mean, I don't know,

911
00:46:08,120 --> 00:46:08,560
Speaker 2: I don't know.

912
00:46:08,640 --> 00:46:12,440
Speaker 5: I mean again, this is a the third or fourth

913
00:46:12,960 --> 00:46:15,120
Speaker 5: bite at the apple for bob byger in succession.

914
00:46:15,120 --> 00:46:16,160
Speaker 4: He's blown it every time.

915
00:46:18,280 --> 00:46:20,640
Speaker 2: This is tough talk, but I mean, I mean, in

916
00:46:20,680 --> 00:46:23,560
Speaker 2: the world of executives, this is like how not to

917
00:46:23,640 --> 00:46:23,920
Speaker 2: do it.

918
00:46:24,480 --> 00:46:26,840
Speaker 5: And it's funny because it was at a time he

919
00:46:26,920 --> 00:46:29,319
Speaker 5: had it perfectly set up and then he chose not

920
00:46:29,360 --> 00:46:33,439
Speaker 5: to leave ten years ago. Anyway, Oh my gosh, sweet

921
00:46:33,560 --> 00:46:34,319
Speaker 5: the rare mood.

922
00:46:34,640 --> 00:46:37,400
Speaker 2: Did you start at St. Patrick's exactly?

923
00:46:37,520 --> 00:46:42,160
Speaker 5: Yes, Oh, it's not tanging in his compass exactly.

924
00:46:42,400 --> 00:46:42,719
Speaker 3: All right.

925
00:46:42,760 --> 00:46:45,879
Speaker 6: Moving on President Trump's taris policies, a federal government cuts.

926
00:46:45,920 --> 00:46:47,839
Speaker 6: We've been talking about it, right, But the New York

927
00:46:47,880 --> 00:46:51,040
Speaker 6: Times is this article saying that it's boosting stocks overseas.

928
00:46:51,480 --> 00:46:54,520
Speaker 6: So they point out investors pulling money from the US

929
00:46:55,040 --> 00:46:57,319
Speaker 6: relocating it around the world. So they give examples. Right,

930
00:46:57,320 --> 00:47:00,280
Speaker 6: They say, since Trump's inauguration, s and P five hundret

931
00:47:00,360 --> 00:47:04,000
Speaker 6: fallen six percent, hang saying risen more than twenty percent,

932
00:47:04,080 --> 00:47:06,840
Speaker 6: Dax in Germany increased ten percent. They go to Europe's

933
00:47:06,800 --> 00:47:10,680
Speaker 6: stock six hundred gaining more than four percent. So it

934
00:47:10,719 --> 00:47:12,560
Speaker 6: has all this data and it shows how over the

935
00:47:12,600 --> 00:47:15,560
Speaker 6: past week investors pulling money from funds at buy US

936
00:47:15,600 --> 00:47:17,799
Speaker 6: stocks for the first time this year. So kind of

937
00:47:17,800 --> 00:47:20,839
Speaker 6: the money shifting to overseas, that's what they're saying, that

938
00:47:20,920 --> 00:47:22,040
Speaker 6: the trend is right.

939
00:47:22,120 --> 00:47:24,200
Speaker 5: Yeah, because we heard from a lot of fund managers

940
00:47:24,320 --> 00:47:27,520
Speaker 5: late last year people Europeans are flooding into the US

941
00:47:27,560 --> 00:47:29,239
Speaker 5: market because that's where the performance was.

942
00:47:29,520 --> 00:47:32,600
Speaker 2: Of all technying. Oh well, I don't know what to

943
00:47:32,600 --> 00:47:34,760
Speaker 2: make of it. I think what Mike Green said Midland,

944
00:47:35,280 --> 00:47:37,400
Speaker 2: somebody wants a vector for me this morning on the

945
00:47:37,440 --> 00:47:38,799
Speaker 2: stock market, they're not going to get it.

946
00:47:38,920 --> 00:47:39,239
Speaker 4: Who knows.

947
00:47:39,239 --> 00:47:42,200
Speaker 2: I don't have any any value had here at all, Lisa,

948
00:47:42,239 --> 00:47:43,840
Speaker 2: Mateo is a value add next.

949
00:47:43,920 --> 00:47:47,040
Speaker 6: Thank you. I'm not sure if you've noticed this one, Tom,

950
00:47:47,080 --> 00:47:50,160
Speaker 6: but they're apparently a lot more kids are using AI

951
00:47:50,440 --> 00:47:53,000
Speaker 6: to get better grades in school, and they're not telling

952
00:47:53,000 --> 00:47:55,320
Speaker 6: mom and dad about it. They're just kind of touting

953
00:47:55,320 --> 00:47:57,200
Speaker 6: it that they're doing good, you know, And what do

954
00:47:57,239 --> 00:48:00,120
Speaker 6: you think? So, I don't know. I think if you

955
00:48:00,239 --> 00:48:02,359
Speaker 6: use it as like this launch pad to kind of

956
00:48:02,440 --> 00:48:04,719
Speaker 6: if you're stuck and you have like you know, brain

957
00:48:04,800 --> 00:48:07,200
Speaker 6: fod just you can't think of where to start an essay,

958
00:48:07,280 --> 00:48:10,400
Speaker 6: like it's a good way to spark you know, some

959
00:48:10,400 --> 00:48:13,640
Speaker 6: some good ideas, but you can't just copy and paste

960
00:48:13,640 --> 00:48:14,239
Speaker 6: and like put it.

961
00:48:14,320 --> 00:48:17,319
Speaker 4: I don't I have done no idea. How teachers police this, Well,

962
00:48:17,320 --> 00:48:18,040
Speaker 4: that's the problem.

963
00:48:18,040 --> 00:48:20,760
Speaker 6: The teachers are saying they can't. And there's even dozens

964
00:48:20,760 --> 00:48:23,240
Speaker 6: of companies that they have. They have apps that claim

965
00:48:23,280 --> 00:48:26,640
Speaker 6: that they can write essays, complete homework with software that

966
00:48:26,760 --> 00:48:30,680
Speaker 6: cannot be detected. So they're like these companies coming out

967
00:48:30,920 --> 00:48:34,000
Speaker 6: doing this too. So I don't know, they're just saying

968
00:48:34,080 --> 00:48:37,879
Speaker 6: with kids, it's it's it's hurting them they learn they can't.

969
00:48:38,440 --> 00:48:40,640
Speaker 2: It's like devices with the kids. I mean, you know,

970
00:48:40,680 --> 00:48:44,000
Speaker 2: whether it's lecturing them on the value add back then

971
00:48:44,120 --> 00:48:49,000
Speaker 2: was the seagreums and seven ye. But you know, I

972
00:48:49,000 --> 00:48:51,400
Speaker 2: can I just say that. I think, you know, you

973
00:48:51,440 --> 00:48:55,360
Speaker 2: look at all the cliff Notes, there's only six I

974
00:48:55,400 --> 00:48:56,960
Speaker 2: didn't buy.

975
00:48:57,040 --> 00:48:57,879
Speaker 6: Yellow and black cover.

976
00:48:57,960 --> 00:49:03,840
Speaker 2: Yeah to them. I mean I got through aerospace engineering,

977
00:49:03,880 --> 00:49:10,759
Speaker 2: liberal arts on cliff Notes. Plato Plato, Oh my goodness.

978
00:49:11,280 --> 00:49:13,520
Speaker 6: But the clip Notes didn't write it for you.

979
00:49:14,800 --> 00:49:18,000
Speaker 2: Lisa Mateo. The newspapers Thank you.

980
00:49:18,160 --> 00:49:22,960
Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast, available on Apple, Spotify,

981
00:49:23,080 --> 00:49:27,360
Speaker 1: and anywhere else you get your podcasts. Listen live each weekday,

982
00:49:27,520 --> 00:49:30,960
Speaker 1: seven to ten am Eastern on Bloomberg dot com, the

983
00:49:31,040 --> 00:49:35,080
Speaker 1: iHeartRadio app, tune In, and the Bloomberg Business app. You

984
00:49:35,120 --> 00:49:38,480
Speaker 1: can also watch us live every weekday on YouTube and

985
00:49:38,680 --> 00:49:40,400
Speaker 1: always on the Bloomberg terminal