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Speaker 1: This is the Action Network podcast, but this one is good.

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Speaker 1: All right.

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Speaker 2: Here we go.

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Speaker 1: Throwing in so we're saying it to cash touchtop.

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Speaker 2: We see most gamblers when they go to gamble, they

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Speaker 2: go to wind. That's incredible. Big banksmall banks. I like

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Speaker 2: to make money. All right, this is the ultimate KABA.

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Speaker 3: Want to back.

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Speaker 2: And we are underway.

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Speaker 3: Welcome to the Action Network Podcast. I'm your host, Brandon Anderson,

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Speaker 3: and this is another episode of strong Side Fridays. I

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Speaker 3: am here as always with Raheem Palmer getting you ready

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Speaker 3: for some weeks six NFL Action. We are back with

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Speaker 3: our new segments from last week, which means my Favorite

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Speaker 3: Favorite and Upset special, Raheem's teaser and trap plays, and

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Speaker 3: of course our week seven look ahead of picks. Raheem,

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Speaker 3: are you ready for another fifteen hour Sunday of football.

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Speaker 2: Well yeah, I'm definitely ready. I mean, it's the NFL season.

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Speaker 2: It's a grind, so let's get to it all right.

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Speaker 3: Well, before we make our picks, don't forget to get

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Speaker 3: the award winning app. All of our picks go in

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Speaker 3: there with real time notifications, so make sure to do

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Speaker 3: that and subscribe to turn those notifications on all the

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Speaker 3: articles there for betting and fantasy as well. Tuesday night,

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Speaker 3: the NBA starts as well. Raheema and I are covering

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Speaker 3: the NBA, so we've got a lot of podcasts and

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Speaker 3: articles coming there plenty more NBA picks as well. We

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Speaker 3: make money across lots of sports, so let's make some

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Speaker 3: money together. As always, odds today are from BETTMGM, the

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Speaker 3: official odds provider of the Action iWork podcast. All right,

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Speaker 3: let's make some picks. First up, it's a trap, So

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Speaker 3: this segment is all about Raheem sniffing out the trappiest

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Speaker 3: trap the books are setting that week and go in

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Speaker 3: the other direction on it. So it's a pros versus

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Speaker 3: Joe's spot. So, Raheem, how are you fading the public

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Speaker 3: this week?

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Speaker 2: I know last week I gave out the Dallas Cowboys

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Speaker 2: minus one, but look, this line's going up to three

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Speaker 2: and a half. It was up to four and a

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Speaker 2: half for sharp money pounded this down. You have eighty

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Speaker 2: one percent of the public all over the Cowboys this week,

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Speaker 2: and I think they're making a grave mistake. Look, I

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Speaker 2: love my Dallas Cowboys. I love them my favorite team

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Speaker 2: of professional sports for literally my entire life. But this

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Speaker 2: is a market. Cowboys have started off the season five

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Speaker 2: and zero against the spread. If this is a market

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Speaker 2: and it's efficient, at some point you're going to start

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Speaker 2: to see Cowboys stop cover and he spreads. And when

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Speaker 2: you look at this Cowboys team, they're not a very

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Speaker 2: good defense. I mean, they're just twenty eighth in pressure rate,

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Speaker 2: seventeenth in ESPN's past rush win rate. They're fifteenth and

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Speaker 2: early down success give it up three hundred ninety yards

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Speaker 2: a game. Now, some of that is a product of

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Speaker 2: you're actually chasing this Cowboys offense, but this this is

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Speaker 2: the average defense at but they're surviving on turnovers, the

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Speaker 2: second in turnover differential, second in takeaways, and a lot

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Speaker 2: of their EPA per play comes from these turnovers. Trayvon

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Speaker 2: Diggs has had interceptions in every single game this year.

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Speaker 2: I don't expect Trayvon Diggs to have seventeen interceptions. So

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Speaker 2: you look at this, this defense and doing on the Patriots.

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Speaker 2: Last week, they played the Houston Texans coming off a

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Speaker 2: highly emotional game against Tom Brady. It was a perfect

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Speaker 2: letdown spot. They had four offensive linemen down and they

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Speaker 2: still managed to pull out the win. They didn't cover

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Speaker 2: nine and a half points, but they pull off the

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Speaker 2: win this week. They're gonna get some of those offensive

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Speaker 2: linemen back. And I know a lot of people don't

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Speaker 2: want to step in front of this Cowboys offense. And

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Speaker 2: Dak is leading his team to thirty four points a game,

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Speaker 2: the second and success rate. But if there's anybody who

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Speaker 2: can put together a solid game plan to slow down

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Speaker 2: this offense is Bill Belichick. It is probably one of

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Speaker 2: the biggest coaching disparities you'll see Bill Belichick. Whereas Mike McCarthy,

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Speaker 2: the look ahead lone on his game was minus one,

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Speaker 2: was sitting at three and a half. My model makes

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Speaker 2: this game around two zero point two to two and

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Speaker 2: a half. So we're back into Patriots here.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, there are a lot of trends in New England's favor,

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Speaker 3: so this is a scary spot to be on Dallas' side.

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Speaker 3: Bill Belichick, as an underdog, we know has smashed in

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Speaker 3: the spot. He's twenty eight thirteen and two against the

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Speaker 3: spread as an underdog, twenty three and twenty straight up

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Speaker 3: as an underdog. So even the money line players worked out.

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Speaker 3: And of course Belichick trends, you got to take into

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Speaker 3: account a lot of those are with Tom Brady. But

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Speaker 3: we just saw a very similar game to this two

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Speaker 3: weeks ago. We saw the New England at home against

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Speaker 3: the Temple Bay Buccaneers, and we saw this high flying

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Speaker 3: offense come in and then what happened. Belichick had a

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Speaker 3: defense that was ready for it. He had a scheme

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Speaker 3: those ready to slow things down. He knew how to

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Speaker 3: kind of take the life out of the game a

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Speaker 3: little bit. How many times have we seen that game

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Speaker 3: where the unstoppable offense comes in to Bill Belichick world

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Speaker 3: and then it's halftime, We're like, Oh, this game sucks,

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Speaker 3: nothing is happening. That's exactly how Bill likes it. He's

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Speaker 3: taken the life out, you know, maybe not running the

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Speaker 3: ball so much. There's a lot of just short passes

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Speaker 3: with Mac Jones, trusting that accuracy. Just keep the clock moving,

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Speaker 3: keep it moving, keep Dallas on the sidelines. I think

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Speaker 3: you're right about the Cowboys defense too. The numbers are good,

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Speaker 3: some of them, but I think that they're hiding that

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Speaker 3: Dallas has been over aggressive, and so I think that

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Speaker 3: they're you know, for all those Treyvon Diggs interceptions, he's

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Speaker 3: jumping routes. So I think he's due to give up,

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Speaker 3: you know, a double or a double route at some point.

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Speaker 3: So Belichick versus the NFC forty four and twenty nine

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Speaker 3: against the spread, lots of trends here. It's it's tough.

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Speaker 3: I was with you on Dallas coming into this game

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Speaker 3: last week when it was minus one, and then this

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Speaker 3: line moves so much. I'm writing a preview on this game,

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Speaker 3: and I haven't come to a side yet, but I

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Speaker 3: think it's because I know that I wanted to pick Dallas,

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Speaker 3: and now that the line moved, there's just a lot

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Speaker 3: of value on New England here.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I think that's the way to go. I'm glad

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Speaker 2: we're in agreement. We could move on to your favorite

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Speaker 2: favorite section. What do you think it, Brandon?

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Speaker 3: Yeah, so favorite favorite just what it sounds like is

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Speaker 3: my best my pick for the best favorite play on

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Speaker 3: the board. And I am going extremely chalky this week.

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Speaker 3: And I know we're going to talk more about this

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Speaker 3: one in a little bit with you, but I am

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Speaker 3: backing the Chiefs on the road in Washington minus six

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Speaker 3: and a half, especially if you can keep this one

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Speaker 3: under a touchdown. I know those key numbers are getting

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Speaker 3: a little fuzzy. With all the millions of miskicks coming

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Speaker 3: every week, but we still got to like getting under

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Speaker 3: touch noown if you can. So here's what I think

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Speaker 3: about this game. Well, we know what the Chiefs are.

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Speaker 3: The Chiefs are the best offense in football. They're the

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Speaker 3: worst defense in football. What we need to remember is

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Speaker 3: that Washington's defense is not really that much better. The

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Speaker 3: Chiefs are number thirty two in DVOA defensively, Washington's number

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Speaker 3: twenty eight, and their past defense is number twenty nine.

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Speaker 3: Guess who likes to pass. The Chiefs are pretty good

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Speaker 3: at passing the ball. Clyde Edwards Laire is out and

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Speaker 3: so I actually think that that helps the Chiefs. Kansas City,

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Speaker 3: I think has been a little bit of a prisoner

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Speaker 3: to sunk cost fallacy. They got their first round running back,

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Speaker 3: and they keep on handing it to them over and over.

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Speaker 3: And now he's out of the way. They're not worried

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Speaker 3: about giving it to Darrell Williams. Not give me a

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Speaker 3: problem anymore. Just let Pat drop back and throw the ball.

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Speaker 3: I know that Kelsey and Tyreek Hill were banged up

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Speaker 3: a little bit, but they look good to go. So

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Speaker 3: if you've got two defenses, this bad. It chips up

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Speaker 3: like a shootout, and I just want to take the

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Speaker 3: offense I trust better. There's no question who that is here.

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Speaker 3: Taylor Haneke has had some moments. I do think that

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Speaker 3: he has a chance to get into the back door

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Speaker 3: on this one. But he also is the sort of

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Speaker 3: guy that could throw a pick six and this game

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Speaker 3: could really get away. Washington's offensive line, Brandon Shurff looks

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Speaker 3: like he might be out again, Sam cosme, so that

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Speaker 3: would be a problem too at six and a half.

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Speaker 3: This is, for me is a teaser spot that I like.

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Speaker 3: Mahomes has to win in that spot, so I know

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Speaker 3: we're going to talk about road teasers in a second.

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Speaker 3: I like the spot here because I don't think that

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Speaker 3: home advantage is such a big deal anymore. And so

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Speaker 3: if this was in Kansas City, I think the line

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Speaker 3: is probably Chiefs double digits easily, Chiefs minus thirteen or something.

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Speaker 3: And because this is on the road instead, we're getting

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Speaker 3: a softer line here. I don't really care where Mahomes

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Speaker 3: is playing US. I mean, sure airheads a little better.

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Speaker 3: It's a good home field for him, but I'm not

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Speaker 3: intimidated by Washington. So one other thing too. The Chiefs

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Speaker 3: have allowed twenty nine points all five games to start

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Speaker 3: the season. That's tied for the most ever by an

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Speaker 3: NFL team, and so that normally would make you think,

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Speaker 3: oh man, this defense socks, I have to bet against them.

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Speaker 3: But teams who have allowed twenty eight points or more

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Speaker 3: in five straight games, they're actually twenty and twelve against

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Speaker 3: the spread. So that tells me is again regression defenses

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Speaker 3: can't stay this bad forever. Offense is a lot more sticky.

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Speaker 3: The Chiefs offense is going to stay awesome. Their defense

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Speaker 3: might go back to just being bad, not horrific. So

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Speaker 3: I like the Chiefs defense, Dude, just enough here, and

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Speaker 3: I trust Mahomes to score enough.

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Speaker 2: What do you think I agree with that? Washington football

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Speaker 2: team defense is probably one of the most overrated units

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Speaker 2: in football. They can't stop a little bleed back end.

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Speaker 2: It's really problematic, and you have a Chiefs offense that

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Speaker 2: is just absolutely dominant. They did struggle a bit with Buffalo,

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Speaker 2: but Buffalo is one of the best defenses in the league,

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Speaker 2: and this is still a unit that has a fifty

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Speaker 2: six percent success rate. They have a fifty eight percent

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Speaker 2: drop back success rate. So this team can get whatever

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Speaker 2: they want whenever they want. And we saw Jameis Winston

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Speaker 2: go out there and absolutely dominate this team for that

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Speaker 2: first half. And at the Saints Washington game, it felt

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Speaker 2: like the Saints were beating themselves. They had multiple turnovers,

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Speaker 2: they had a fumble, Jamis wants to do an interception,

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Speaker 2: and that gave the Washington football teams some lives. So

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Speaker 2: I think this line should probably be higher.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I think so too.

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Speaker 2: So let's move.

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Speaker 3: Let's move to our next segment because any're going to

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Speaker 3: talk about this game again. So up next a little

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Speaker 3: segment that we are calling tease me, please me, don't

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Speaker 3: tease me. So Raheem puts out his top teaser every week.

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Speaker 3: Your play has been killing it. And I noticed this

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Speaker 3: week that there are a bunch of very teasable looking

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Speaker 3: lines out there. We got the Bucks Thursday night by

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Speaker 3: about a touchdown. By the time you listen, that game

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Speaker 3: will already be in the books. We've got the Chiefs

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Speaker 3: by about a touchdown on the road, got the Bills

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Speaker 3: by probably what will be about a touchdown on Monday night.

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Speaker 3: We've got the Rams are our ten point favorites on

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Speaker 3: the road. So these look very teasable to me, there

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Speaker 3: are a bunch of these lines that look too good

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Speaker 3: to be true, Like the public is just going to

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Speaker 3: throw all these lines into a teaser, and that never

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Speaker 3: works out for the public. There's a reason the casinos

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Speaker 3: are so big and beautiful in Las Vegas. So talk

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Speaker 3: to me about road teasers. I know that you are

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Speaker 3: feeling a little queasy about this.

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Speaker 2: Okay. So Stanford one book called Shark Sports Betting in

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Speaker 2: early two thousands, and he spoke about the teams in

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Speaker 2: which you tease. So you're looking to tease home favorites

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Speaker 2: seven or six down to one or pick them. You're

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Speaker 2: looking to tease home underdogs two of one and a

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Speaker 2: half and two and a half up through the key

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Speaker 2: numbers of six and seven. You're looking to tease roll

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Speaker 2: underdogs of one and a half to two and a

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Speaker 2: half up. You're crossing off those key numbers of three, six,

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Speaker 2: and seven. That's the key in order to do these teasers.

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Speaker 2: He also mentioned that you you want to use totals

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Speaker 2: under forty nine. Now we all know that the NFL

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Speaker 2: is a higher scoring game, so you kind of have

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Speaker 2: to throw out that rule. Now that's a little bit outdated.

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Speaker 2: But one of the things I don't like to do

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Speaker 2: typically is to tease row favorites of six down because

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Speaker 2: I believe that those are the most mispriced games. So

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Speaker 2: you look at Tampa Bay, you look at Kansas City,

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Speaker 2: they have a higher chance that I know whom foot

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Speaker 2: advantage is what it was, but they have a higher

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Speaker 2: chance of being upset than they would at home. So

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Speaker 2: I tend to stay away from those teams, and I

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Speaker 2: try to stick to those rules. With Buffalo, they're at

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Speaker 2: five and a half now, so that doesn't really fit

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Speaker 2: the teaser range because you'd be paying across the zero.

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Speaker 2: So even though it's a half a point, I try

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Speaker 2: to stay disciplined on that type of thing. So I'm

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Speaker 2: not really that in love with a lot of the

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Speaker 2: teasers that you see this week.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I like, we'll see you by the time that

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Speaker 3: you listen. I like a Bucks Chiefs teaser just because

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Speaker 3: both of those are similar spots. They're they're about a

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Speaker 3: touchdown on the road, and to me, that same logic

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Speaker 3: is with the Chiefs, but I might be falling into

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Speaker 3: the traps that Stanford Wong is talking about. So we'll

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Speaker 3: see how that one comes out.

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Speaker 1: much for listening. Let's get back to the show.

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Speaker 3: Up next is our Upset Special segment. Pretty straightforward. Each week,

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Speaker 3: I'll make a case for my favorite money line underdog.

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Speaker 3: Last week Bills at Chiefs. My bills came through. Matt

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Speaker 3: Mitchell's bills came through. We are five for five on

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Speaker 3: Upset specials.

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Speaker 2: Now.

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Speaker 3: I gotta tell you, I feel a little queasy about

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Speaker 3: this week's pick, but some of these picks make me queasy.

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Speaker 3: The Week one, we went with the Texans. Week four,

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Speaker 3: we went with the Jets. So there's a reason that

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Speaker 3: we were picking some of these long shots. When you're

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Speaker 3: getting plus odds, they don't have to pay off every week.

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Speaker 3: So with that vote of confidence, my upset special this

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Speaker 3: week is a Seattle Seahawks on the road Sunday Night

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Speaker 3: in Pittsburgh, and that, of course is a Seattle Seahawks

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Speaker 3: starting Gino Smith. So what I think about this game

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Speaker 3: was us, it's an ugly game. This is gonna be

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Speaker 3: another We've had some great Sunday night games, you know,

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Speaker 3: the waiting all day for Sunday Night this week, ain't it.

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Speaker 3: We are not waiting for Seattle and Pittsburgh. This is

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Speaker 3: not going to be a fun game to watch. We

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Speaker 3: got one team with the absolutely washed quarterback that should

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Speaker 3: have retired. They can't rery the defense anymore, can't get

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Speaker 3: the ball downfield. The other team gotta start Gino Smith

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Speaker 3: because Ben Roethlisberger is terrible. We've been bashing on him

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Speaker 3: all year. I'm not even sure that Big Ben is

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Speaker 3: the better quarterback here, as bad as Gino has been,

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Speaker 3: as rough as Ben is looking lately. So Pittsburgh just

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Speaker 3: not a team that has really impressed me this year.

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Speaker 3: They are good at stopping the run. They're good at

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Speaker 3: getting some pressure on the quarterback, but the secondary has

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Speaker 3: been leaky. The offense has really struggled. I know it's

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Speaker 3: been against some tough defenses, but there's not getting much going.

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Speaker 3: The line isn't getting a lot of blocking. Juju Smith

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Speaker 3: Schuster is out now, so they're starting to lose some

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Speaker 3: talent there. This feels like an under to me. That

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Speaker 3: feels like one of those ugly hard to find some

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Speaker 3: points and I like the underdog better in under situations

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Speaker 3: because you've got less points on the board. You know,

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Speaker 3: this feels like a game that is going to be

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Speaker 3: close late, and then you see what happens. And normally

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Speaker 3: you would think on the surface, well, if it's close,

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Speaker 3: I sure as heck don't want Geno Smith, But guess what,

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Speaker 3: I don't want Big Ben either. So both of these

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Speaker 3: secondaries are pretty rough and beatable Seattle. I don't necessarily

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Speaker 3: trust Gino, but I do trust DK Metcalf, I do

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Speaker 3: trust Tyler Lockett. Shannon Waldron has opened up this offense

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Speaker 3: a little bit as the coordinator, even if this means

333
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Speaker 3: Gino is under pressure and just throws a few up

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Speaker 3: for grabs. Kind of trust dk metcalf to make a

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Speaker 3: couple of those grabs. Maybe, Like given the options here,

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Speaker 3: I like Seattle stay in the game, So Seattle to

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Speaker 3: cover I do like. And if Seattle is covering, and

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Speaker 3: if it's an under type game, I've got to sprinkle

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Speaker 3: the long shot here. So Seattle money line is my play.

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Speaker 3: I don't feel great about it. Don't bet your house

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Speaker 3: on this one, but I like the Seahawks here. Am

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Speaker 3: I crazy?

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Speaker 2: I think you are crazy. I spoke to some sharps

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Speaker 2: who were talking about betting Seattle once it hit six.

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Speaker 2: But for me, I'm pricing this is probably is one

346
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Speaker 2: of the biggest quarterback downgrades since probably Aaron Rodgers to

347
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Speaker 2: Brett Hungley or Deshaun Kaiser. Like, I'm pricing this at

348
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Speaker 2: around eight and a half points because I just think

349
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Speaker 2: this This Seahawks defense is so horrible. They really can't

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Speaker 2: stop anybody. Even with Russell Wilson in the lineup. They

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Speaker 2: struggle offensive. It's like we saw they struggled in the

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Speaker 2: second half of games, and I just can't there's no

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Speaker 2: way to I could back them, but we all know

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Speaker 2: the still is they have leftdown games and this is

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Speaker 2: the type of game that still is like we'll have

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Speaker 2: a letdown game in so I get it, but I

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Speaker 2: can't do it.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, and it really is. That's the thing for me.

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Speaker 3: It's it's not a bet on Gino Smith. I am

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Speaker 3: not betting on Gino Smith. I am willing to bet

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Speaker 3: against this Pittsburgh team right now. They're a team that

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Speaker 3: tends to lay an egg when they are comfortable favorite

363
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Speaker 3: like they are here, and I'm just not trusting Big

364
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Speaker 3: Ben right now. This defense is not what it had

365
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Speaker 3: been the last few years. So I'm willing to give

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Speaker 3: Seattle a shot. You got to know, though, if you

367
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Speaker 3: if you're putting money on this game, you got to

368
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Speaker 3: realize there is every chance that this goes awry and

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Speaker 3: that it's like twenty eight nothing in the second quarter

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Speaker 3: and Gino has three interceptions and you're like, oh my god,

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Speaker 3: why did I put money on Gino Smith? That's in play.

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Speaker 3: That doesn't mean that it's a bad bet. You just

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Speaker 3: have to understand a range of outcomes here. So we

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Speaker 3: might get an absolute clunker from Gino. You're right that

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Speaker 3: it's a huge downgrade in my rankings once I have

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Speaker 3: swapped out the quarterback. Seattle's offense drop from seventh to

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Speaker 3: twentieth overall, so basically like flip from top quarter to

378
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Speaker 3: almost bottom quarter of the league. So this one I

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Speaker 3: might end up with egg on my face, but I

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Speaker 3: think both these teams are pretty bad. So I'm willing

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Speaker 3: to give a bad Seattle team a chance with Gino

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Speaker 3: given that I don't think Pittsburgh is very good either.

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Speaker 3: So all right, let's move to our new segment that

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Speaker 3: we're loving, the look Ahead Hot Wrap.

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Speaker 2: On ice Rights ice Cream nineteen out nineteen.

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Speaker 3: So, as you guys know, on Sunday, each week, Raheem

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Speaker 3: and I do the hot Read, we look to the

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Speaker 3: games coming up for the following week. It's some early

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Speaker 3: line movement on strong side. Fridays, We're going to close

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Speaker 3: out with the look Ahead and grab some value on

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Speaker 3: a line for next Sunday. Everyone else is focusing on

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Speaker 3: these games coming soon. These lines they've got value on them.

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Speaker 3: We're gonna grab some value. So, Raheem, who you like

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Speaker 3: for this week?

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Speaker 2: Actually like two? I like New Orleans Saint minus three.

396
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Speaker 2: Next week against the Seahawks, we spoke about why Geno

397
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Speaker 2: Smith is such a huge downgrade. I just don't think

398
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Speaker 2: this is pricing it enough. But I think if they

399
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Speaker 2: go out there and lose to the still as you'll

400
00:20:10,840 --> 00:20:13,119
Speaker 2: see this line. But what the second one is. I

401
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Speaker 2: like the Broncos plus six on Thursday Night football against

402
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Speaker 2: the Cleveland Browns. I think this is a little bit high.

403
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Speaker 2: So those are my two right there.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I like the Denver one. I looked at that

405
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Speaker 3: one as well. The Saints Seahawks comes back to a

406
00:20:27,440 --> 00:20:29,200
Speaker 3: similar thing for me where it's like, I don't know,

407
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Speaker 3: is Jamis Winston really the quarterback that I'm relying on

408
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Speaker 3: over Gina, Like it just gets into that kind of,

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Speaker 3: you know, a zone of I'm not really too sure

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Speaker 3: what to expect here. But my pick is similar to

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Speaker 3: what we talked about earlier as well. I'm taking the

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Speaker 3: Chiefs minus three on the road in Tennessee. Very similar

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Speaker 3: argument to what I said as the game this week.

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Speaker 3: I think the Chiefs are being a little undervalued.

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Speaker 2: Now.

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Speaker 3: We ran through nearly a full season of the Chiefs

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Speaker 3: being overvalued. We had all those one score games, and

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Speaker 3: I think that we may have over corrected a little

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Speaker 3: bit here. Titans defense is terrible. It's been terrible for

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Speaker 3: a long time. They can't stop the run, or the pass.

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Speaker 3: So we know the Chiefs are going to score a

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Speaker 3: lot of points. And I think that if the Chiefs

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Speaker 3: score big this week on Washington, as I expect, and

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Speaker 3: the Titans you possibly could get blown out on Monday

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Speaker 3: night in a national spot against the Bills. That's what

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Speaker 3: the books are suggesting right now. So that probably moves

427
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Speaker 3: this line easily off for the three. I wish it

428
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Speaker 3: was at two and a half because then I can

429
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Speaker 3: get a Chiefs field goal for the win. But this

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00:21:30,480 --> 00:21:33,240
Speaker 3: line is not moving towards Tennessee. It's only going to

431
00:21:33,320 --> 00:21:35,760
Speaker 3: move towards Kansas City. So I'll gro out of the

432
00:21:35,760 --> 00:21:37,320
Speaker 3: field goal, take the push if I need to.

433
00:21:38,040 --> 00:21:38,200
Speaker 2: Look.

434
00:21:38,240 --> 00:21:40,520
Speaker 3: The Titans have won three or four against the Chiefs,

435
00:21:40,600 --> 00:21:42,640
Speaker 3: so I know that that's going to be the angle here.

436
00:21:43,040 --> 00:21:46,080
Speaker 3: But Henry had some big games in those games. But

437
00:21:46,080 --> 00:21:48,040
Speaker 3: you got to stay in the game close enough for

438
00:21:48,080 --> 00:21:50,880
Speaker 3: Henry to be a factor, and the Titans won by two,

439
00:21:51,119 --> 00:21:54,280
Speaker 3: three and one point in those games. The most recent

440
00:21:54,359 --> 00:21:57,200
Speaker 3: game was the playoffs last which you might recall Titans

441
00:21:57,200 --> 00:22:00,320
Speaker 3: were up ten to nothing and then Kansas City turned

442
00:22:00,359 --> 00:22:04,040
Speaker 3: that into thirty five to seventeen before late garbage touchdown.

443
00:22:04,359 --> 00:22:07,399
Speaker 3: Because once the offense gets going, there's nothing Tennessee can

444
00:22:07,480 --> 00:22:11,800
Speaker 3: do about it. And unlike last year, Ryan Tannehill Arthur Smith,

445
00:22:12,080 --> 00:22:15,320
Speaker 3: they're not around. Tannehill is around, but not that version

446
00:22:15,359 --> 00:22:18,960
Speaker 3: of Tannehill to flip this game and go point for points.

447
00:22:19,080 --> 00:22:22,200
Speaker 3: So for me, as much as the Chiefs defense is

448
00:22:22,560 --> 00:22:25,080
Speaker 3: a scare right now, if I look at the other

449
00:22:25,160 --> 00:22:27,360
Speaker 3: offense facing them, and I don't think that they can

450
00:22:27,400 --> 00:22:30,320
Speaker 3: at least somewhat match point for point, there's just no

451
00:22:30,400 --> 00:22:32,320
Speaker 3: chance I'm gonna ride with the chief So I like

452
00:22:32,359 --> 00:22:35,439
Speaker 3: Chiefs minus three at Tennessee. All right, let's go with

453
00:22:35,640 --> 00:22:37,440
Speaker 3: one more pick before we get you out of here

454
00:22:37,440 --> 00:22:45,720
Speaker 3: for the weekend. It's one for the road, one for him.

455
00:22:45,720 --> 00:22:46,160
Speaker 3: What do you got?

456
00:22:46,880 --> 00:22:49,320
Speaker 2: It's so funny. I have two picks that are almost

457
00:22:49,359 --> 00:22:52,520
Speaker 2: the exact same handicap. I like the Baltimore Ravens minus

458
00:22:52,520 --> 00:22:54,840
Speaker 2: two and a half. I also like the Browns minus three.

459
00:22:55,280 --> 00:22:58,640
Speaker 2: Both of these two teams are playing highly explosive offenses,

460
00:22:59,320 --> 00:23:03,880
Speaker 2: and Justin Herbert and Kyler Murray inter facing defenses who

461
00:23:03,880 --> 00:23:06,480
Speaker 2: can't stop the run, I think both are going to

462
00:23:06,560 --> 00:23:09,960
Speaker 2: take advantage of those this week. The market has reached

463
00:23:09,960 --> 00:23:12,280
Speaker 2: this peak on the Arizona Cardinals. The market has also

464
00:23:12,359 --> 00:23:14,760
Speaker 2: reached its peak when the Chargers, so we're going to

465
00:23:14,800 --> 00:23:15,800
Speaker 2: take those two for the world.

466
00:23:16,359 --> 00:23:19,440
Speaker 3: It's very interesting. I'm still very tossed up on both

467
00:23:19,440 --> 00:23:21,359
Speaker 3: of those. I think I'm going up, probably staying away.

468
00:23:21,840 --> 00:23:24,679
Speaker 3: I definitely like the matchup. I feel better about the

469
00:23:24,720 --> 00:23:27,879
Speaker 3: Browns matchup just because I trust their run game more.

470
00:23:28,200 --> 00:23:31,000
Speaker 3: Baltimore's numbers scare me a little bit. I think I'm

471
00:23:31,040 --> 00:23:34,320
Speaker 3: still giving Baltimore credit for, Hey, there are this great

472
00:23:34,359 --> 00:23:37,360
Speaker 3: defense and this unstoppable run attack, because they have been

473
00:23:37,440 --> 00:23:39,399
Speaker 3: for like how many years in a row now, and

474
00:23:39,440 --> 00:23:41,960
Speaker 3: the numbers don't really back that up right now. So

475
00:23:42,040 --> 00:23:45,320
Speaker 3: I'm a little less a little feeling less safe on them.

476
00:23:45,640 --> 00:23:49,600
Speaker 3: But those are definitely both, you know, interesting home favorites

477
00:23:49,640 --> 00:23:52,160
Speaker 3: that you would't necessarily expect to be favorites in that spot.

478
00:23:52,359 --> 00:23:54,600
Speaker 3: I think there are teams that the public will be

479
00:23:54,640 --> 00:23:57,400
Speaker 3: in on the road dog in that spot.

480
00:23:57,640 --> 00:24:00,000
Speaker 2: One of my philosophies is that you'd never want to

481
00:24:00,280 --> 00:24:03,280
Speaker 2: be on a on a public dog. So I really

482
00:24:03,359 --> 00:24:05,119
Speaker 2: like both of these spots. And also one of the

483
00:24:05,200 --> 00:24:08,720
Speaker 2: interesting things about the Baltimore Ravens is that Lamar Jackson

484
00:24:08,760 --> 00:24:10,840
Speaker 2: is actually he's doing a great job of passing, and

485
00:24:10,880 --> 00:24:13,239
Speaker 2: they're doing like they're winning in that manner. And then

486
00:24:13,280 --> 00:24:15,480
Speaker 2: when it comes to the Chargers, I think their third

487
00:24:15,480 --> 00:24:19,280
Speaker 2: and fourth down efficiency has to regress at some point.

488
00:24:19,640 --> 00:24:22,359
Speaker 2: Like I've read a stat the other day was really interesting.

489
00:24:22,560 --> 00:24:28,680
Speaker 2: The Chargers have scored touchdowns after seven of their eight

490
00:24:28,800 --> 00:24:32,720
Speaker 2: fourth down conversions. Wow, some of these fourth down conversions

491
00:24:32,720 --> 00:24:34,720
Speaker 2: are I mean like fourth and six, fourth and eight,

492
00:24:35,160 --> 00:24:38,600
Speaker 2: fourth and fifteen. So it's just that that has to regress.

493
00:24:38,640 --> 00:24:43,000
Speaker 3: So I'm feeling that, Yeah, my one for the road

494
00:24:43,040 --> 00:24:45,560
Speaker 3: here is actually a future is play. So I have

495
00:24:45,640 --> 00:24:47,639
Speaker 3: an article that going up Thursday, should be out by

496
00:24:47,640 --> 00:24:50,280
Speaker 3: the time that you read or listen to us on

497
00:24:50,520 --> 00:24:53,600
Speaker 3: the MVP race. And I think that there's some real

498
00:24:53,680 --> 00:24:55,280
Speaker 3: value in the semi P race right now because what

499
00:24:55,320 --> 00:24:59,360
Speaker 3: we've got is, you know, we love the shiny new object,

500
00:24:59,640 --> 00:25:02,240
Speaker 3: and we've we got all of these young quarterbacks who

501
00:25:02,240 --> 00:25:04,760
Speaker 3: are among the MVP favorites right now, the top four

502
00:25:05,160 --> 00:25:09,680
Speaker 3: Josh Allen, Kyler Murray and Dak Prescott and Justin Herbert,

503
00:25:09,720 --> 00:25:12,040
Speaker 3: and they're all these exciting young new teams and the

504
00:25:12,040 --> 00:25:14,560
Speaker 3: teams that are the hot thing right now, they all

505
00:25:14,560 --> 00:25:17,280
Speaker 3: have their big win in recent weeks, and I don't

506
00:25:17,400 --> 00:25:19,080
Speaker 3: like the value on any of those I'm not betting

507
00:25:19,119 --> 00:25:21,480
Speaker 3: those prices right now. I'm not saying that they can't win,

508
00:25:21,960 --> 00:25:25,399
Speaker 3: but I don't like the betting value. What that those

509
00:25:25,440 --> 00:25:29,000
Speaker 3: guys are hiding the value of Tom Brady, who is

510
00:25:29,040 --> 00:25:31,280
Speaker 3: still at plus eight hundred at some books to win

511
00:25:31,280 --> 00:25:34,520
Speaker 3: this MVP, even though I don't know what you could

512
00:25:34,560 --> 00:25:36,600
Speaker 3: possibly do if you're Tom Brady to have stirred out

513
00:25:36,640 --> 00:25:39,639
Speaker 3: on a better season. So far, tom Brady is leading

514
00:25:39,640 --> 00:25:43,360
Speaker 3: the league in completions and passing attempts, so it's huge volume.

515
00:25:43,680 --> 00:25:45,520
Speaker 3: We knew that was gonna be happening because the secondary

516
00:25:45,520 --> 00:25:47,760
Speaker 3: has gone bad, so they're gonna have to win some shootouts.

517
00:25:48,240 --> 00:25:50,679
Speaker 3: Tom Brady's leading the league in passing yards. He's on

518
00:25:50,800 --> 00:25:53,800
Speaker 3: pace for over six thousand passing yards right now, and

519
00:25:53,840 --> 00:25:56,040
Speaker 3: we haven't even noticed yet, because I don't know why

520
00:25:56,080 --> 00:25:59,520
Speaker 3: we're focusing all these guys who weren't born yet when

521
00:25:59,520 --> 00:26:03,080
Speaker 3: Tom Brady was already winning Super Bowls and he's on

522
00:26:03,080 --> 00:26:06,520
Speaker 3: pace for six thousand yards fifty one touchdowns, even though

523
00:26:06,560 --> 00:26:08,600
Speaker 3: he didn't even have a single touchdown pass against the

524
00:26:08,600 --> 00:26:12,600
Speaker 3: Patriots and Tampa schedule is super soft. They only have

525
00:26:12,680 --> 00:26:15,320
Speaker 3: one game left against the top ten team. It's a

526
00:26:15,359 --> 00:26:17,680
Speaker 3: home game against Buffalo, which could end up being kind

527
00:26:17,680 --> 00:26:20,159
Speaker 3: of an MVP showdown in that game. If Josh Allen

528
00:26:20,200 --> 00:26:23,760
Speaker 3: and the Bills stays so good, so I think the Bucks,

529
00:26:24,160 --> 00:26:26,119
Speaker 3: it's hard for me to see even them falling to

530
00:26:26,200 --> 00:26:29,359
Speaker 3: something like thirteen and four. And even if Brady's numbers

531
00:26:29,400 --> 00:26:32,000
Speaker 3: slow way down, he still ends up at something like

532
00:26:32,280 --> 00:26:35,320
Speaker 3: five thousand yards and forty touchdowns on a thirteen fourteen

533
00:26:35,400 --> 00:26:37,800
Speaker 3: win team. And it's Tom Brady, and we have all

534
00:26:37,880 --> 00:26:40,359
Speaker 3: the narrative built in, so I think there's still value

535
00:26:40,400 --> 00:26:43,800
Speaker 3: at plus eight hundred. He's the sort of guy that

536
00:26:44,320 --> 00:26:46,640
Speaker 3: if it weren't for these hot young quarterbacks, he would

537
00:26:46,640 --> 00:26:49,920
Speaker 3: already be a favorite or the favorite in most seasons.

538
00:26:50,119 --> 00:26:52,479
Speaker 3: So I think that the young guys are obscuring some value.

539
00:26:52,920 --> 00:26:55,760
Speaker 3: One out the long shot to throw in just a

540
00:26:55,880 --> 00:26:59,159
Speaker 3: numbers play. If the Cleveland Browns are as good as

541
00:26:59,200 --> 00:27:01,480
Speaker 3: they look three and two, but they should have won

542
00:27:01,560 --> 00:27:03,800
Speaker 3: both of their two losses against the Charges and the Chiefs.

543
00:27:04,200 --> 00:27:06,200
Speaker 3: If the Browns are that good, and if the Browns

544
00:27:06,240 --> 00:27:08,639
Speaker 3: actually get the one seed and stay in it, the

545
00:27:08,720 --> 00:27:11,760
Speaker 3: quarterback of the Cleveland Browns is going to be in

546
00:27:11,800 --> 00:27:14,880
Speaker 3: the conversation. Baker Mayfield has not been good so far,

547
00:27:15,359 --> 00:27:17,400
Speaker 3: but he's at as high as sixty five to one

548
00:27:17,440 --> 00:27:20,160
Speaker 3: at some books and so especially I had a few

549
00:27:20,160 --> 00:27:22,080
Speaker 3: play as an article you can check out. There are

550
00:27:22,119 --> 00:27:24,840
Speaker 3: some guys that their value on now, like Pat Mahomes,

551
00:27:24,840 --> 00:27:27,760
Speaker 3: Matt Stafford. If you can buy now and sell later,

552
00:27:27,920 --> 00:27:31,840
Speaker 3: cash out right before or right after this big schedule

553
00:27:31,880 --> 00:27:34,760
Speaker 3: coming up, so you know it's with the cash out

554
00:27:34,800 --> 00:27:36,679
Speaker 3: option now you can play the market a little bit.

555
00:27:36,720 --> 00:27:38,880
Speaker 3: You don't have to just go all in on one candidate.

556
00:27:39,240 --> 00:27:41,680
Speaker 3: Brady's my all in guy, but some of these other

557
00:27:41,720 --> 00:27:43,679
Speaker 3: guys you can nibble the value. You can buy now

558
00:27:43,720 --> 00:27:46,120
Speaker 3: and get out later. Don't be playing those young guys

559
00:27:46,200 --> 00:27:48,080
Speaker 3: right now. I don't like the value there. Some of

560
00:27:48,080 --> 00:27:51,040
Speaker 3: these other players have some value sitting out there. So

561
00:27:51,119 --> 00:27:53,240
Speaker 3: I like Brady, I like some of the other names there.

562
00:27:54,200 --> 00:27:57,520
Speaker 2: Interesting, I didn't even think about Baker Mayfield, but that's

563
00:27:57,520 --> 00:27:58,200
Speaker 2: really interesting.

564
00:27:58,240 --> 00:28:01,000
Speaker 3: Well, Baker. You know, Baker has four touchdow in five games.

565
00:28:01,000 --> 00:28:04,280
Speaker 3: So Baker Mayfield very clearly not the MVP right now,

566
00:28:04,480 --> 00:28:07,359
Speaker 3: not even in the conversation. But you know, in my

567
00:28:07,480 --> 00:28:09,480
Speaker 3: article I talk about there are ten teams right now

568
00:28:09,520 --> 00:28:11,480
Speaker 3: that I think have separated as the clear favorites in

569
00:28:11,480 --> 00:28:13,879
Speaker 3: the NFL, like ten teams that we expect one of

570
00:28:13,880 --> 00:28:15,320
Speaker 3: them to be in the super Bowl. And not only

571
00:28:15,400 --> 00:28:16,960
Speaker 3: is ten if you count the Chiefs just because of

572
00:28:17,000 --> 00:28:19,240
Speaker 3: Pat Mahomes, and if you look at all the MVP

573
00:28:19,359 --> 00:28:21,880
Speaker 3: favorites right now, there are nine names who are really

574
00:28:21,920 --> 00:28:24,320
Speaker 3: separated from the whole rest of the field, and it's

575
00:28:24,359 --> 00:28:28,040
Speaker 3: the quarterbacks of those ten favorites, and then not the Browns.

576
00:28:29,040 --> 00:28:32,120
Speaker 3: Mayfield is just buried behind like Kirk Cousins and Sam

577
00:28:32,280 --> 00:28:36,480
Speaker 3: Darnold and Jalen Hurts, and he probably belongs there right now.

578
00:28:36,920 --> 00:28:39,520
Speaker 3: But the Browns have some prime ten games coming up.

579
00:28:39,560 --> 00:28:42,760
Speaker 3: They play in Green Bay on Christmas, they play Baltimore

580
00:28:42,760 --> 00:28:46,280
Speaker 3: a couple of times. I just think as a narrative award,

581
00:28:46,760 --> 00:28:49,040
Speaker 3: if the Browns defense continues to play this swell and

582
00:28:49,080 --> 00:28:51,200
Speaker 3: run game can use to play this well. And then

583
00:28:51,240 --> 00:28:54,240
Speaker 3: Baker gets some more touchdowns, gets a few big moments,

584
00:28:54,280 --> 00:28:56,200
Speaker 3: you know, a big late drive in one of those

585
00:28:56,360 --> 00:28:59,080
Speaker 3: you know, national games late in the year. And now

586
00:28:59,080 --> 00:29:01,840
Speaker 3: we've got Baker guy that the media loves to talk about,

587
00:29:02,360 --> 00:29:04,920
Speaker 3: and you know it's coming down the stretch and the

588
00:29:04,960 --> 00:29:07,200
Speaker 3: Browns are closing ground on the one seed. The Browns

589
00:29:07,240 --> 00:29:10,080
Speaker 3: the best Browns team of our lifetime. People are gonna

590
00:29:10,120 --> 00:29:12,719
Speaker 3: talk about him. So I think at sixty five to

591
00:29:12,720 --> 00:29:16,000
Speaker 3: one quarterback of a team that's that good, I think

592
00:29:16,080 --> 00:29:17,160
Speaker 3: is interesting.

593
00:29:17,680 --> 00:29:20,360
Speaker 2: Definitely interesting. I'm excited to read your article and then

594
00:29:20,360 --> 00:29:24,600
Speaker 2: I'll have one as well, so it'll be can you give.

595
00:29:24,520 --> 00:29:26,040
Speaker 3: Us a preview? Who are you? Who are you thinking

596
00:29:26,120 --> 00:29:27,920
Speaker 3: right now? Do you have a lean on an MVP

597
00:29:28,000 --> 00:29:28,840
Speaker 3: pick of your own?

598
00:29:28,960 --> 00:29:32,360
Speaker 2: I mean right now, I think there's there's six candidates

599
00:29:32,440 --> 00:29:35,800
Speaker 2: who are pretty much in the race, and I think

600
00:29:36,160 --> 00:29:37,800
Speaker 2: it's really exciting because I don't know if we've ever

601
00:29:37,840 --> 00:29:40,080
Speaker 2: seen this many quarterbacks playing as well. When you look

602
00:29:40,080 --> 00:29:44,880
Speaker 2: at Justin Herbert, Dak Prescott, Patrick Mahomes, Tom Brady, Lamar Jackson,

603
00:29:44,920 --> 00:29:48,080
Speaker 2: and Kyler Murray. Now, I think Kyler Murray could play

604
00:29:48,120 --> 00:29:50,200
Speaker 2: himself out out of it. He's the one who's banged

605
00:29:50,240 --> 00:29:52,360
Speaker 2: up right now. He has a shoulder injury coming into

606
00:29:52,480 --> 00:29:54,800
Speaker 2: this week. But I think those are the six front

607
00:29:54,840 --> 00:29:58,000
Speaker 2: runners that I kind of want to get into and really,

608
00:29:58,200 --> 00:29:59,880
Speaker 2: you know, address for.

609
00:29:59,880 --> 00:30:02,720
Speaker 3: The all right, Well, I look forward to reading your

610
00:30:02,840 --> 00:30:06,000
Speaker 3: MVP article. You guys can read my MVP article this

611
00:30:06,080 --> 00:30:08,560
Speaker 3: week and Raheem's next week. That is going to wrap

612
00:30:08,600 --> 00:30:11,000
Speaker 3: it up today at the Action Network Podcast. Please make

613
00:30:11,000 --> 00:30:14,640
Speaker 3: sure to download the Action Network app. Please rate, subscribe,

614
00:30:14,640 --> 00:30:18,040
Speaker 3: and review the podcast wherever you listen. Check out Stuck

615
00:30:18,080 --> 00:30:20,680
Speaker 3: in Raybounds NFL betting guys if you haven't yet, Raheem

616
00:30:20,720 --> 00:30:22,920
Speaker 3: and I will be back first thing Monday morning to

617
00:30:23,040 --> 00:30:26,360
Speaker 3: run through all the action from a week six. Braheem Palmer,

618
00:30:26,360 --> 00:30:29,200
Speaker 3: I'm Brandon Anderson and this has been the Action Network Podcast.

619
00:30:29,440 --> 00:30:30,240
Speaker 3: Enjoy your weekend