Speaker 1: Hello everybody. Welcome into the Fantasy Pros Football Podcast. I'm
Speaker 1: Ryan Warmley, joined today by Chris Welsh and Andrew Eric
Speaker 1: sant Bellas. We are into the Divisional Round of the
Speaker 1: NFL Playoffs. It is for a lot of people the
Speaker 1: best weekend of the year. It's been a common refrain
Speaker 1: that you hear people say, you know, Super Bowl is
Speaker 1: obviously fun, but it's just one game. It's more casual,
Speaker 1: you know, even Conference Championship Day it's just one day.
Speaker 1: There's only two games. Divisional Round. You get four excellent matchups.
Speaker 1: You get teams that have either gotten a bye or
Speaker 1: already won a game to really earn their place here.
Speaker 1: It's spread out over two days, a very clean slate.
Speaker 1: I am really excited. Where Welsh does Divisional Round rank
Speaker 1: for you?
Speaker 2: I guess I hadn't really thought about like a level
Speaker 2: of excitement, you know that. I'm like, oh, set the
Speaker 2: clocks for Divisional Round. But to your point, these are
Speaker 2: the games, These are the for the most part. I mean,
Speaker 2: I didn't need to see the Texans in here, but
Speaker 2: you know what, they've played better. But like the idea
Speaker 2: that we're going to get, you know, like the Bill's
Speaker 2: Ravens game. It's going to be phenomenal. Eagles Rams is
Speaker 2: gonna be great, Lions Commanders might sneakily again, just with
Speaker 2: how the Commanders have been playing. So yeah, I'm in
Speaker 2: agreement with you. I think it's more like hindsight when
Speaker 2: you look at it, like, oh, this will probably be
Speaker 2: the best weekend of them. But I hadn't really given
Speaker 2: it thought, like you know, this is the weekend to
Speaker 2: put on your calendar and get ready to go, but
Speaker 2: it's gonna be awesome.
Speaker 1: Have you given that thought? Ericson where does this rank
Speaker 1: for you if you've thought about it?
Speaker 3: Yeah, I think that it's the week that the anticipation
Speaker 3: is at its peak for NFL. For these are all
Speaker 3: gonna be great matchups because, like you said, you have
Speaker 3: everyone's coming off a win, right, either coming off the
Speaker 3: buy or coming off the win coming off a win,
Speaker 3: so there's hope on both sides. But rightfully, so we
Speaker 3: know why the top seeds had a bye week, so
Speaker 3: it's like, oh, reminder, Oh, the Chiefs are really good.
Speaker 3: Oh the Lions are really good. So don't get too
Speaker 3: comfortable again. Those are both massive spreads, right, eight and
Speaker 3: a half points of the Chiefs fair against the Texans
Speaker 3: nine and a half points. That is unusual look at,
Speaker 3: but it's a test to Yeah, the number one seeds
Speaker 3: in each conference are really good teams. And yes, the
Speaker 3: Commanders and Texans one last time, so oh, maybe there's
Speaker 3: a chance. I like to think that that's probably not
Speaker 3: a chance that those are the upsets that we get
Speaker 3: this week.
Speaker 1: Obviously, I'm excited for Ravens Bills. I hate that it's
Speaker 1: the last game, just personally because I'm gonna be thinking
Speaker 1: about it during all the other matchups, and like, I'll
Speaker 1: enjoy why they're great games. I'm really excited for this weekend,
Speaker 1: but in the back of my head, I won't be
Speaker 1: able to fully, like just relax and turn my worrying
Speaker 1: brain off because I'll be thinking about Ravens Bills the
Speaker 1: entire time. It's the correct game to be last and
Speaker 1: kind of the big kapper to everything, but for me personally,
Speaker 1: I hate it and we'll be struggling through the weekend
Speaker 1: for that reason. Let's see how you guys did during
Speaker 1: wild Card weekend and our predictions show last week. Both
Speaker 1: guys were wrong on the Chargers winning, though Welsh did
Speaker 1: hit his prop on lad McConkie yardage by like a lot.
Speaker 1: I think he topped his prop by over one hundred yards.
Speaker 1: Ericson was spot on with the Ravens game and Lamar's
Speaker 1: passing yards. Welsh, you did hit your Pickens prop, but
Speaker 1: you're wrong about the steel covering. Ericson easily hit his
Speaker 1: object estimate under considering estimate did.
Speaker 3: Not play well.
Speaker 1: You were all over your Bills pick and Boni's rushing prop.
Speaker 1: Erickson nailed his Eagles pick with the Jordan Love under.
Speaker 1: Welsh nailed the game with the under hitting as well.
Speaker 1: Ericson spot on with doubling down on the Commander's passing
Speaker 1: attack on Sunday night. Welsh was right about that easily
Speaker 1: being the best game of the weekend. It wasn't even
Speaker 1: remotely close. That was the best game of the weekend,
Speaker 1: even though Bucky Irving did fall short of Welsh's hundred
Speaker 1: rushing yard prediction. Finally, Ericson hit his Matthew Stafford under
Speaker 1: a Monday night. While Welsh was wrong about both the
Speaker 1: Vikings win and the Jefferson over On receptions, easily Ericson's
Speaker 1: best week of the season.
Speaker 3: I mean, I think me and Wealth both did pretty good.
Speaker 1: You vot did well, but wel she has had good
Speaker 1: weeks already. This is your first good weekend.
Speaker 3: This is the first time I winning week, I think
Speaker 3: where I didn't go onh five. So you know, that's
Speaker 3: the magic of having less games to go through, right,
Speaker 3: I can focus, hyper focus on each individual matchup. I
Speaker 3: feel like I can come with a better product. And
Speaker 3: that's why I think did better, you know, with these predictions.
Speaker 3: So with only four games in the divisional round, looking
Speaker 3: for to to that coming out. But of course it
Speaker 3: started off terribly with the Chargers getting absolutely you know,
Speaker 3: boat raced against the Chargers or against the Texans, So
Speaker 3: didn't start off great, but finish strong. The trifecta of
Speaker 3: passing yards unders on the three quarterbacks all under their
Speaker 3: passing yard, so that's a lot of fun. And I
Speaker 3: don't know how Stafford. I mean, if Taler Hagby hadn't
Speaker 3: gotten injured, I was gonna get cooked, like Stafford was
Speaker 3: dealing on Monday, and I was getting tagged on X
Speaker 3: about oh this this bet is going to go up
Speaker 3: in flames. But they stopped throwing because the Vikings couldn't
Speaker 3: do anything and they just ran them ball in the
Speaker 3: second half, So let's run it back.
Speaker 1: I was almost right about the Chargers game being the
Speaker 1: biggest blowout. I just thought it was going to be
Speaker 1: in the other direction that one, and I was very tough.
Speaker 2: So you own everybody, you and every single person out.
Speaker 3: There are more interceptions in that game that he did.
Speaker 1: All say stuff that should be a lesson, like if
Speaker 1: the entire world is like all on one side, just
Speaker 1: we should go the other dry in the future. Welsh,
Speaker 1: how confident are you going into our predictions for this
Speaker 1: week's sleep Yeah.
Speaker 2: I mean, I mean, like my process even on the
Speaker 2: ones I didn't hit. Bucky Irving was at like seventy
Speaker 2: nine yards, got to carry and then he lost to
Speaker 2: and then they you know, if they had gone to overtime,
Speaker 2: maybe we hit that. Of course, everybody knows when Justin
Speaker 2: Jefferson has five catches in the first half, everyone knows
Speaker 2: on the planet never throw to him again, So that's
Speaker 2: everybody's game plan and established the run with eight minutes
Speaker 2: left in the game when you're down eighteen. But yeah,
Speaker 2: I mean, I think my process, like across the board
Speaker 2: was great as far as like the props Go game picks,
Speaker 2: I had something that I thought were really slow chargers
Speaker 2: was just a big stupid idiot me. But yeah, I
Speaker 2: mean I feel pretty good about them. I kind of
Speaker 2: locked onto a few really really early. There's a couple sneaky,
Speaker 2: weird ones that I've got going into this weekend as well,
Speaker 2: and I'm retreading one, you know. I mean, hat tip
Speaker 2: to the guy that got on my case about two
Speaker 2: straight weeks of Justin Jefferson not hitting and then him
Speaker 2: not hitting. I can't retread him, but I am going
Speaker 2: to retread one from last week as well that I
Speaker 2: that did hit, and I think it's going to hit again.
Speaker 2: So I feel pretty good.
Speaker 1: Let's dive into our predictions here. We're going to go
Speaker 1: chronological order, so we'll start with Texans Chief Texans still
Speaker 1: locked into that Saturday afternoon time slot ericson start us off.
Speaker 1: What's your prediction for Texans at Chiefs.
Speaker 3: I'm gonna go with Isaiah Pacheco goes over thirty six
Speaker 3: and a half rushing yards. He operates as the Chiefs
Speaker 3: RB one. I know that since he's come back from
Speaker 3: his injury, it's kind of been a two man committee
Speaker 3: between him and Kareem Hunt. But I think this is
Speaker 3: the way they finally take the training wheels off of
Speaker 3: Isaiah Pacheck, like he's had enough time, you know, basically
Speaker 3: missed the last three weeks with rest. You know, the
Speaker 3: Chiefs didn't play their stars in Week eighteen, they had
Speaker 3: the bye week. So I think if he's ever going
Speaker 3: to get a full workload, like the time is now,
Speaker 3: And just looking back at how much the Chiefs have
Speaker 3: featured Isaiah Pachecko in playoff games when it matters the most,
Speaker 3: I cannot imagine in any world where they feel we
Speaker 3: gotta feed Cream Hunt right right. That just doesn't make
Speaker 3: sense to me, just based on the lack of juice
Speaker 3: that he has to offer versus Pacheco, who has that bulsiveness.
Speaker 3: So I don't think it's an entire takeover that you're
Speaker 3: gonna see Hunt sprinkled in here and there. But I
Speaker 3: think it's going to look like Pachecko as the clear
Speaker 3: RB want and cream Hunt kind of sprinkling as the
Speaker 3: RB two. So I think he can go over his
Speaker 3: rushing yards prop I think I really like his odds
Speaker 3: of scoring a touchdown too. So when we saw this
Speaker 3: match up in Week sixteen, Cream Hunt led the team
Speaker 3: in rushing he had fifty five rushing yards. So if
Speaker 3: cream Hunt could get to fifty five rushing yards, I
Speaker 3: think Pacheco cauln get over forty if he sees the
Speaker 3: bulk of the carries. So I like Pachecko to kind
Speaker 3: of finish the season strong here in the box score.
Speaker 1: Well, so what do you think about this one unless
Speaker 1: on the actual specific number of yards, but more just
Speaker 1: do you see this role being Pachecko as the clear
Speaker 1: RB one Hunt is RB two the way Ericson sees it.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'll be honest, I almost had this one and
Speaker 2: then I started it and then I looked and I
Speaker 2: was like, oh, Erickson's got it, because I'm in this
Speaker 2: is what you were saving Pachecko four. This is the
Speaker 2: whole process, Like you brought him back, he had some
Speaker 2: big carries, and then you tailed him back going into
Speaker 2: the end of the regular season. I mean, because what
Speaker 2: was it like single digit care I think I think
Speaker 2: the last two games then you got a bye week.
Speaker 2: This is what you've done. I wouldn't be surprised if
Speaker 2: it smashes and looks like old school Isaia Pachecko in
Speaker 2: this one, because that is what this is built for.
Speaker 2: So I love this. I love the idea of him
Speaker 2: kind of being re established in this offense and Kareem
Speaker 2: Hunt being kind of that change of pace side of it.
Speaker 2: I don't think it's beneficial for them to keep Pichecko
Speaker 2: off the field, and what more you playing for to
Speaker 2: not so I think this is like, this is smash.
Speaker 2: I completely agree with ericson.
Speaker 1: I hope you guys are right. You know, I picked
Speaker 1: up Pachecko in season in a lot of places where
Speaker 1: he was dropped when he was on IR for for
Speaker 1: several weeks, hoping that he would kind of come back
Speaker 1: with a vengeance in December and the Fantasy Playoffs stretch run,
Speaker 1: and it didn't happen. They just never really committed to
Speaker 1: him being back in this role. Obviously. Now you've gotten
Speaker 1: even more time off with this bye week and the
Speaker 1: Chiefs resting their starters in week eighteen, So if there's
Speaker 1: a time to do it, like you said, Welsh, like
Speaker 1: this is what you save him for, and I would
Speaker 1: love to see him now. The Texas defense is playing
Speaker 1: really well, so maybe it's a ruggle regardless, but I
Speaker 1: would love to see him come out in that role
Speaker 1: on the Texans side of things. Welsh what's your prediction here.
Speaker 2: Yeah, by way, I want to add that is my
Speaker 2: only hesitation across the board is just that Texans run defense.
Speaker 2: That would be the thing that would hold me back
Speaker 2: a little bit. And that's where in my game prediction,
Speaker 2: I'm gonna throw it on another side and we're going
Speaker 2: to go to DeAndre Hopkins. Not even in any type
Speaker 2: of revenge scenario though that exists out there. He's got
Speaker 2: a super low receiving yard prop I immediately went to
Speaker 2: Xavier Worthy. It's pretty palatable. You know, they just haven't
Speaker 2: stretched the ball deep with him. So you know, I
Speaker 2: was looking at like receptions and that those are pretty
Speaker 2: juiced and stuff like that if we're thinking of it
Speaker 2: from like a betting angle. But even outside of just
Speaker 2: like the straight line, I think like DeAndre Hopkins is
Speaker 2: going to be more involved. Twenty eight and a half
Speaker 2: is his receiving yard number for this week. I think
Speaker 2: he's going to hit that. He's hit that in nine
Speaker 2: of his last ten games. He didn't hit that in
Speaker 2: his last game out, but nine of his last ten,
Speaker 2: and he did hit this in their last matchup, So
Speaker 2: you know, Marquise Brown kind of opens the field up
Speaker 2: a little bit for them. They are spreading the ball out.
Speaker 2: I think there's a big question of, like, you know,
Speaker 2: just worthy just continue to take over that perceivable like
Speaker 2: receipt rice roll where he was getting like seven eight
Speaker 2: nine targets a game that's probably going to continue to happen.
Speaker 2: You've got everybody out there in play for this week,
Speaker 2: Travis Kelce everybody, but I think DeAndre Hopkins is putting
Speaker 2: a good spot back to what I started with and
Speaker 2: what you alluded to. I don't know how well they're
Speaker 2: going to be able to establish like a dominant running game,
Speaker 2: so it's probably going to be a lot of passing.
Speaker 2: So i'd even like semi throw not on the card
Speaker 2: here that Hopkins is viable for a touchdown. I think
Speaker 2: he's going to be one of the top red zone
Speaker 2: touchdown options when they get over there. So I think
Speaker 2: he's going to get this over on the receiving yard
Speaker 2: marker even kind of like the touchdown in there. He
Speaker 2: will be involved. And this is just a low, nice,
Speaker 2: nice low number. That's what I was kind of honing
Speaker 2: in on this weekend.
Speaker 1: Excellent. What do you think Welsh kind of mentioned, you know,
Speaker 1: maybe give some thought to guy like xavierre Worthy instead,
Speaker 1: is Hopkins the right guy to pick for a prediction
Speaker 1: like this?
Speaker 3: I think when you're looking at I think the number
Speaker 3: is really key here because the Chiefs like to involve
Speaker 3: other guys, But like Welsh talked about, Hopkins number is very,
Speaker 3: very suppressed because he just hasn't been as featured as
Speaker 3: some of these other players. And when you look at
Speaker 3: not just getting over this particular number, but getting over
Speaker 3: his receiving yards projection, like he's been under his prop
Speaker 3: most weeks with the Chiefs. But that's why the line
Speaker 3: is now what it is at twenty eight twenty nine
Speaker 3: and a half yards, so he can get this on
Speaker 3: one play. I think I do kind of like the
Speaker 3: idea of the touchdown instead, just because I think you're
Speaker 3: gonna get I mean, I have to imagine it's probably
Speaker 3: three to one odds, and I feel confident that if
Speaker 3: Hopkins gets targets, it's going to be in the red
Speaker 3: zone and where do the Texans give up a lot
Speaker 3: of their production in terms of passing touchdowns. So that's
Speaker 3: maybe another way that I would spin it. But I
Speaker 3: do like Worthy a lot too, because if you just
Speaker 3: look at the last matchup when these played in Week sixteen,
Speaker 3: it was all underneath stuff. Take Xavier Worthy and it
Speaker 3: worked really effectively. He had over sixty yards after the
Speaker 3: catch in that matchup, So I don't think that they
Speaker 3: would get away from that. And then Marquis spron Is
Speaker 3: obviously has has had a tight target rate this year,
Speaker 3: and if he's playing a larger allotment of snaps, know,
Speaker 3: how does that affect Hopkins. But the fact that it's
Speaker 3: such a low number, yeah, I mean you can get
Speaker 3: over this on one play. And yeah, the touchdown equity
Speaker 3: is definitely there.
Speaker 1: I'm pulling it up here just to see anytime touchdown
Speaker 1: scorer on DraftKings plus two sixty five for DeAndre Hopkins.
Speaker 2: We're close to three to one. Yeah, I mean, you
Speaker 2: know it's good. Like red zone option. He's had four
Speaker 2: targets in nine straight games, you know, so like the
Speaker 2: target share is there. He's a high catch rate, you know,
Speaker 2: relative guy. And he's also had six or more targets
Speaker 2: in three of the last five games. You know, so
Speaker 2: like the targets are there. Markus Brown does put a
Speaker 2: little bit of a cloud into it, but also you know,
Speaker 2: it's like how much of that rotational stuff. Are we
Speaker 2: going to see Are we going to see them sprinkling
Speaker 2: and juju? Are we going to see more justin Watson?
Speaker 2: Like those things put a big question and if Kelsey
Speaker 2: and Gray are both out there. But again it is
Speaker 2: literally coming back to just it's a super low number.
Speaker 2: You smashed this number. That's why it's so low. You've
Speaker 2: got your little fun revenge narrator like I'm in, I.
Speaker 3: Will say too, And when something I was thinking back
Speaker 3: up when we're doing all that contract incentive stuff. So
Speaker 3: when the Titans traded Hopkins to the Chiefs, like there
Speaker 3: was a certain clause in that trade where if Hopkins
Speaker 3: played over fifty percent of the snaps, the Chiefs would
Speaker 3: have to send the Titans a higher draft pick. I
Speaker 3: don't think that no longer applies anymore. So now they
Speaker 3: can action because he was always hovering under fifty percent
Speaker 3: of the snaps. I don't think that was my accident
Speaker 3: from the Kansas City Chiefs. Now they don't have to
Speaker 3: necessarily do that, and he can play like seventy eight
Speaker 3: percent of the snaps, which again obviously plays and do
Speaker 3: him hitting over on his receiving yards.
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Speaker 1: to the Saturday night game Commanders Lions, Ericsson. We are
Speaker 1: in the cores field of the NFL. What's your prediction here?
Speaker 3: James Williams's going to catch over four and a half
Speaker 3: passes over four and a half receptions. He has at
Speaker 3: least five receptions and six of his last seven games
Speaker 3: seven plus targets in each contest. So when this line
Speaker 3: first opened up, it was four and a half at
Speaker 3: plus money. Now most of the books have it down
Speaker 3: at three and a half receptions at heavier juice. I
Speaker 3: don't really care because he's going to catch five passes
Speaker 3: in this game because that's all he's been doing basically
Speaker 3: the last seven games. So again, in a game where
Speaker 3: you can see the Commanders, you can throw on their defense.
Speaker 3: Jamison Williams has been really involved, So I like the
Speaker 3: over What do.
Speaker 1: You think about this one? Welsh?
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm totally on this one. I mean, Erickson anything,
Speaker 2: Jamison Williams, Jamo. I'm always like, give me the yards,
Speaker 2: give me the receptions. I love you know that like
Speaker 2: that little just inside route that he'll run like ten
Speaker 2: yards in I guess like slant and then you know,
Speaker 2: just the yards after the catch with the yak like
Speaker 2: that has been a play they've run with him all
Speaker 2: season long because he's explosive in open field. He's also
Speaker 2: clearly a big deep play option. You're gonna be able though,
Speaker 2: I mean, you know, the one thing you can look
Speaker 2: at too is you can run against this team and
Speaker 2: you're gonna have Montgomery back, and you've got Jamier Gibbs
Speaker 2: and you might have a lot of run established stuff.
Speaker 2: But you know, jameson Williams on some of those shorter routes.
Speaker 2: This isn't just like go deep and where the old
Speaker 2: Jamison Williams it was like you had to hope you
Speaker 2: were getting your thirty five yard receptions kind of George
Speaker 2: Pickens like, that's not the case anymore. They'll run some
Speaker 2: screen passes, they'll run some short five to ten yard
Speaker 2: inns and let him try to get yards after the catch.
Speaker 2: They want to get the ball in his hands. And
Speaker 2: you get a lot of defenses that are putting heavy
Speaker 2: coverage on a mon Rus Saint Brown. I would suspect
Speaker 2: a manra is going to get a lot of that
Speaker 2: look in this game as well. So this one's just
Speaker 2: always in play for me. I think this is a
Speaker 2: really really good, sneaky one. The only thing that would
Speaker 2: hold me back is if they are really able to
Speaker 2: run on Washington and they have just established the you know,
Speaker 2: the time of possession. It's run first down, second down,
Speaker 2: short play action, and then they just keep doing that
Speaker 2: and all of a sudden it's a sixty to forty
Speaker 2: run over pass. That puts a little bit of a
Speaker 2: question into into the like him being able to get
Speaker 2: into those receptions and maybe yards of being played. But
Speaker 2: you know, I mean, I think it's gonna be a
Speaker 2: great think game, and I think Washington is going to
Speaker 2: keep this within striking distance where this isn't a thing
Speaker 2: where they're just you know, running the clock out for
Speaker 2: the whole second half.
Speaker 1: So I would actually go against you guys on this,
Speaker 1: and it's for the reason you just laid out. Well,
Speaker 1: I think the Lions are going to be able to
Speaker 1: run very well, just all over the commanders, and they
Speaker 1: aren't going to need to throw enough to the point
Speaker 1: that Jameson Williams is getting five or more receptions. I'm
Speaker 1: not saying he's not gonna get a big play here
Speaker 1: something like that, like he will be used, but I
Speaker 1: can't kind of anticipate this to be just a massive
Speaker 1: Jamior Gibbs game against this commander's defense. Welsh, what do
Speaker 1: you think about your prediction for this one?
Speaker 2: So I'm this is dirty or this is grosser. And
Speaker 2: I actually lied at the top of the show because
Speaker 2: I will say a thing that I liked last week
Speaker 2: and this is a tease for the Betting Pro show
Speaker 2: that Ericson and I do it hit last week, and
Speaker 2: I'm right back on it at the exact same number,
Speaker 2: but that's not this one that we're gonna talk about,
Speaker 2: because I'm gonna tie it into someone that is going
Speaker 2: to be a beneficiary. I'm gonna go with Diami Brown.
Speaker 2: Another twenty eight and a half seems to be just
Speaker 2: my lucky number. If I see that for a receiver
Speaker 2: that's getting over three to four targets per game in
Speaker 2: a game where I think they're gonna be throwing the ball,
Speaker 2: I'm gonna be in and Miami Brown twenty eight and
Speaker 2: a half receiving yards is that number. I think he's
Speaker 2: gonna go over. He's hit this in four of his
Speaker 2: last five games. Five targets, five catches, eighty nine yards
Speaker 2: in the last matchup in the playoffs, And what can
Speaker 2: you do on the Lions? You can pay? What are
Speaker 2: you also going to probably be doing against the Lions
Speaker 2: trailing and you're going to have to pass? They're not
Speaker 2: going to be able to have some big established run.
Speaker 2: Jaden Daniels has also proven to be a monster completion marker.
Speaker 2: There's your tip for what we're going to be talking
Speaker 2: about on betting pros pimply you had like twenty four
Speaker 2: to twenty five completions in this he spreads the ball
Speaker 2: around that defense should be hyper focused on who Terry
Speaker 2: McLaurin big play options and what does that end up doing.
Speaker 2: That ends up opening up opportunities for Zakias. That opens
Speaker 2: up opportunities for Diamie Brown, who Jayden Daniels seems to
Speaker 2: like right now he is hitting this, he can be
Speaker 2: a bigger play option. Is still low total for a
Speaker 2: team that I think is going to be playing from
Speaker 2: behind and I don't think you're going to want to
Speaker 2: play a ton of that screen pass stuff with Austin Eckler.
Speaker 2: This opens up for zach Ertz as well. But like
Speaker 2: the best line from a prediction standpoint is Diamie Brown.
Speaker 2: Now this is very, very more like betting pros betting
Speaker 2: side and not being like fun in the predictions of
Speaker 2: like a touchdown or whatever. But if when I look
Speaker 2: at this matchup, I see three or four things I
Speaker 2: really like, this was the number one that jumped out.
Speaker 2: So I'm gonna say, Demmy Brown is going to have
Speaker 2: a solid game that I don't know if we're talking
Speaker 2: about after but we're gonna be like, oh, he's just
Speaker 2: not some afterthought. He's gonna go over thirty.
Speaker 1: Ericson do you agree or disagree on Brown?
Speaker 3: I've been a sucker for to Diamie Brown. He's been
Speaker 3: in the NFL and he has done absolutely nothing until
Speaker 3: this season. But he was a standout UNC and it's
Speaker 3: just finally taking this long. He just needed a quarterback, right,
Speaker 3: He just needed Jay James to unlock his upside. So
Speaker 3: I actually wrote up his anytime touchdown in last week's
Speaker 3: Betting pros primer, So very happy to see him score.
Speaker 3: Is yelling at the TV. There's Diamy Brown. I knew
Speaker 3: he was good, so I like this one, especially because
Speaker 3: Jane Dales does have a tendency to spread the wealth
Speaker 3: between all of these other receivers, and Diny Brown can
Speaker 3: be a big play specialist, so I think they're gonna
Speaker 3: be taking some shots downfield to try to keep pace.
Speaker 3: So I like this one, even if I mean he
Speaker 3: can get it done.
Speaker 2: On one one catch. Yeah, that's exactly right.
Speaker 3: Yeah you can get bailed out, even if he's not
Speaker 3: nearly as involved like targets wise. But it's been trending
Speaker 3: in the right direction.
Speaker 1: For I want to quickly ask you guys just on
Speaker 1: the total, A whopping fifty five and a half. I
Speaker 1: can only remember one total being higher than this this year.
Speaker 1: This is the second hight that I can remember, at least,
Speaker 1: you know, for this season. Obviously, we joke about it
Speaker 1: being the Coors Field of the NFL. Ericson do you
Speaker 1: like this game to go over fifty five and a
Speaker 1: half or is that just so high you want to
Speaker 1: take the under?
Speaker 3: It's too high. This is exactly to your point. The
Speaker 3: other game that was higher was the last Lions game
Speaker 3: we saw, which is lines of Mikings at fifty six
Speaker 3: and a half. There's just no value on this number anymore.
Speaker 3: It's gone like these numbers should be closer fifteen and
Speaker 3: a half. That's what I have it projected to be.
Speaker 3: So I mean, yeah, it can be like it could
Speaker 3: score eighty points. Yeah, that's possible. But the Commanders last
Speaker 3: four games on the road, I've all been under, so
Speaker 3: I'm going under.
Speaker 2: Do you think there's any value on Washington on the
Speaker 2: plus here or like this one's tough because points? Yeah, well,
Speaker 2: this has the feel of that Raven Steeler thing where
Speaker 2: you're just like, man, you know Washington is really you know,
Speaker 2: they're able to sling the ball they're able to get
Speaker 2: some quick scores, you feel like that they can keep
Speaker 2: it within and and win. But at the same token,
Speaker 2: you know that Ravens game with the Steelers, there was
Speaker 2: this feeling of like they could also get blown out,
Speaker 2: Like I wouldn't be surprised if the over doesn't hit
Speaker 2: and the Lions still win by fifteen.
Speaker 3: Yeah, that's kind of how I think that. This is
Speaker 3: where the Commander's season, the magic riding.
Speaker 1: I didn't realize this line was nine and a half,
Speaker 1: by the way, like for something, thought I was a
Speaker 1: little lower than that that. Yeah, it's a big line,
Speaker 1: but I still would take Detroit honestly.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I think that you'll probably see like a lot
Speaker 3: of public money on the Commanders because the last time
Speaker 3: we saw like, oh, Jane Daniels is so fun, like
Speaker 3: he's gonna make plays, and the.
Speaker 1: Commanders also are not. They're not that good of a team,
Speaker 1: like like just a strictly looking at the roster, like
Speaker 1: Jane Daniels is awesome and there's a couple of pieces.
Speaker 1: I'm not saying that it's him and nobody, but they're
Speaker 1: just not that. I mean, they're a year or two
Speaker 1: away from being like a real, true contender. This is
Speaker 1: just Jane Daniels magic. That's you know, taking them as
Speaker 1: far as they've gotten. And it's a total credit to him.
Speaker 1: It's a credit to Dan Quinn. But like the Lions,
Speaker 1: even with their injuries, are just at a different level.
Speaker 1: Like I just don't I can't imagine the Lions punt
Speaker 1: more than once maybe in this game. Like if you
Speaker 1: gave me over under one and a half punts from
Speaker 1: the Lions, I would take the under East, I would trash.
Speaker 3: There's a Worms prediction.
Speaker 1: Yeah, our prediction one or zero puns from the Lions.
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Speaker 1: All right, guys, he got a couple of games on
Speaker 1: Sunday here Rams Eagles another very fun one. Welch, we'll
Speaker 1: start with you here. What's your prediction? All right?
Speaker 2: We are going to go to mister motivation himself, AJ Brown.
Speaker 2: He doesn't have to pull out his book for any
Speaker 2: motivation during the game because it's going to be a
Speaker 2: good one. He's scoring a touchdown, so we're going to
Speaker 2: go into the touchdown market for AJ Brown. He scored
Speaker 2: a touchdown on three of his last four games. He
Speaker 2: went six of seven in last in the over those
Speaker 2: last games with a touch I'm sorry, six of seven
Speaker 2: in their last matchup as far as catches to targets go,
Speaker 2: and he scored a touchdown when he went up against
Speaker 2: the Rams. He's the guy. He's the red zone target
Speaker 2: that they want. It's not always going to be fun.
Speaker 2: Johan Dotson's out there. They want to get the ball
Speaker 2: to AJ Brown. They want to be able to establish
Speaker 2: some type of a passing game, and I think this
Speaker 2: matchup is going to be a lot tougher. That Rams
Speaker 2: defense has been playing pretty stout. I mean with what
Speaker 2: they did to Darnald. I think they're going to put
Speaker 2: this team in a position where they are going to
Speaker 2: have some early running, have to establish some of that
Speaker 2: play action, and AJ Brown is going to get involved
Speaker 2: in this game. You gonna have your sprinkles of DeVante Smith.
Speaker 2: It was nice to see Goddard get that big play.
Speaker 2: This is going to be that matchup where AJ Brown
Speaker 2: is going to get back into it. It's going to
Speaker 2: be a big I think everything is in line and
Speaker 2: in play here receptions two yards. But for the fun
Speaker 2: side of it, I believe it's plus money, like plus
Speaker 2: one twenty five or one ten or something for AJ
Speaker 2: Brown on a touchdown. So he's scoring, Eagles are winning
Speaker 2: I'll also throw that out there. I think the Eagles
Speaker 2: are obviously going to win this game. What is a
Speaker 2: spread on is this? Was this seven and a half?
Speaker 1: Six and a half, I think six and a half
Speaker 1: at one point right now at DraftKings at.
Speaker 2: Six, Yeah, give me Eagles. I'm gonna I'm gonna have
Speaker 2: Eagles buy a touchdown, so we can throw that on
Speaker 2: there as a prediction as well. AJ Brown touchdown Eagles,
Speaker 2: they are going to cover the spread.
Speaker 1: Would you rather Welsh bet first touchdown score for AJ
Speaker 1: Brown at plus eight hundred or anytime at plus one
Speaker 1: forty five?
Speaker 2: Oh it's one forty Yeah, I mean I like anytime
Speaker 2: totally in play for that first touchdown. But like the
Speaker 2: Eagles in the ramp, like the game coming up here,
Speaker 2: Kyrien Williams scoring, you know they're going right to the
Speaker 2: running back side. You're going to have a push push
Speaker 2: I'm most said that incorrectly, or Sae Kwon Barkley if
Speaker 2: you're in short yardage, so like you can play it.
Speaker 2: I think that's totally in play for a J. Brown.
Speaker 2: But I'm more into the anytime touchdown for that because
Speaker 2: they've got two guys in short yardage that they can
Speaker 2: play with. I tend to, like, you know, teams that
Speaker 2: I think in even like a five yard are going
Speaker 2: to want to play more play action that don't have
Speaker 2: as stout as of a run game. That's where that
Speaker 2: wide receiver feels even a little bit better. This is
Speaker 2: not the case with the Eagles on both of that.
Speaker 2: So A J. Brown anytime touchdown is more of my.
Speaker 1: Play ericson how do you see this one?
Speaker 3: I mean AJ Brown went over one hundred yards and
Speaker 3: scored a touchdown last time I played the Rams, so
Speaker 3: it's on. I mean we saw the Eagles second mark.
Speaker 3: I had over two hundred and fifty rushing yards the
Speaker 3: last time you played the Rams, and I think he
Speaker 3: could have had more if I'm like remembering that game correctly.
Speaker 3: So yeah, I think that the Eagles offense is going
Speaker 3: to show out here and I think they're going to
Speaker 3: get AJ Brown and his inner excellence involved in scoring touchdowns.
Speaker 1: What's your prediction.
Speaker 3: I'm going to go on the other side to the
Speaker 3: Rams with a underwhelming wide receiver. Cooper Cup is going
Speaker 3: to finish with under fifty receiving yards. It has not
Speaker 3: been great for Cooper Cup last six games. He has
Speaker 3: had more than three catches one time, totaling thirteen catches
Speaker 3: for one hundred and ninety yards and one touchdown. He's
Speaker 3: averaging two catches and thirty one and a half receiving
Speaker 3: yards per game. Last time he faced the Eagles, because
Speaker 3: this is a rematch from Week eight, no excuse me,
Speaker 3: week twelve, So Cupp had eight passes or he caught
Speaker 3: eight passes on eleven targets. He got to sixty yards.
Speaker 3: He took him eleven targets to get to sixty yards.
Speaker 3: He has nineteen targets, I believe, or thirteen catches in
Speaker 3: the last six games. So he's going to have to
Speaker 3: see like fifteen targets if he wants to get to
Speaker 3: fifty receiving yards at this point. And even in that
Speaker 3: matchup when they played the Eagles earlier this year, he
Speaker 3: was sitting on seven catch for thirty three yards until
Speaker 3: he had a twenty seven yard touchdown catch in the
Speaker 3: fourth quarter. So I don't think that things are going
Speaker 3: to improve for Cooper Cup. I'm not exactly sure what
Speaker 3: the issue. I mean. I think it's just he's just
Speaker 3: lost a step. Like the injuries. Over time, you start
Speaker 3: to build and you're not getting any younger. You know,
Speaker 3: it reminds me so much of the Michael Thomas thing
Speaker 3: where the milk doesn't unspoil. And I think you're just
Speaker 3: kind of seeing this from Cooper Cup, especially with pookinakooage
Speaker 3: is so like the number one focal point of the
Speaker 3: passing game. Cooper Cup is taking a mass step back,
Speaker 3: and I don't think it's going to change, especially against
Speaker 3: the Eagles.
Speaker 1: So you have him under fifty yards DraftKings line is
Speaker 1: forty two and a half. Would you go under that
Speaker 1: as well? Yes, Welsh, what do you think?
Speaker 3: Yeah?
Speaker 2: I gave it some pretty serious thought. If there's an
Speaker 2: under to play, it's Cooper Cup. It's to me, it's
Speaker 2: like always a little bit risky because you know, you
Speaker 2: obviously know like if like that one play a ridiculous
Speaker 2: play fallback wards, you cut. But the problem with Cooper
Speaker 2: Cup in general is is if we go back to
Speaker 2: that game, they lost their offense because Tyler Higbee got hurt.
Speaker 2: Like that's the crazy that's a crazy Rams team that
Speaker 2: we're not used to. It used to be. It's just oh,
Speaker 2: you don't have Pooka, you go to Cooper, you don't
Speaker 2: have Cooper you go to Puka. All of a sudden,
Speaker 2: they don't have the trust. Whether like you're saying, it's
Speaker 2: it's separation. They don't look towards Cooper Cup enough. Tyler
Speaker 2: Higbee being out of that offense and having that you
Speaker 2: know that center field middle line target taken away. That's
Speaker 2: not Cooper Cup anymore, and that used to be what
Speaker 2: they do. Hey, you can get a little five yard
Speaker 2: out route, bam, Cooper Cup takes it. They don't trust
Speaker 2: that anymore. Higbee going away destroyed that offense and it
Speaker 2: was never in replacement of Cooper Cup. So I have
Speaker 2: no faith. I have no faith that I think you
Speaker 2: can still catch the ball. But he has no cornerback separation.
Speaker 2: They're single covering him, they're double covering Pooka, and you're
Speaker 2: still not seeing the ball go to Cooper Cup. Stafford
Speaker 2: doesn't trust him. The play calling is not designed in
Speaker 2: that direction. I think something fluky could happen, but I
Speaker 2: like this under I really do well.
Speaker 3: Also, Higbee's gonna play, so I know he got hurt
Speaker 3: in the last game, but McVeigh said, like, yeah, he's fine,
Speaker 3: he's gonna play in the divisional rounds. So I don't know.
Speaker 3: I mean, you're gonna see the four tight end rotation
Speaker 3: again from the La Rams with all four of their
Speaker 3: guys in heavy personnel and yeah, cup, Yeah, I don't
Speaker 3: know how much much's gonna be involved.
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Speaker 1: to claim your prize. All right, guys, last game here
Speaker 1: Sunday night. I hope you've cleared your schedules. We can
Speaker 1: take about two hours on this one. Ravens Bills Game
Speaker 1: of the Weekend, one of the games of the year,
Speaker 1: certainly in terms of the hype going into it. You know,
Speaker 1: top two MVP candidates this season, you know, first team
Speaker 1: and second team All Pro at the position amongst the quarterbacks.
Speaker 1: Just great teams, both coming off blowouts in the wild
Speaker 1: card A round. There's really not much more to say, Like,
Speaker 1: it's just an incredible, incredible matchup. It's the one everybody wanted.
Speaker 1: It's the one I'll be chewing it through my fingernails
Speaker 1: during for three and a half hours. Welsh, what's your
Speaker 1: prediction for Ravens Bills.
Speaker 2: It's got to be Derrick Henry. Derick Henry is walking
Speaker 2: into this game with implied DraftKings totals like one hundred
Speaker 2: and ten rushing yards. It's it's wild number, of course,
Speaker 2: so you've got heavy, heavy on the rush yards. He
Speaker 2: has had over one hundred and twenty yards in rushing
Speaker 2: in four straight games. Awesome. Anytime he has had twenty
Speaker 2: carries or more, he has gone over one hundred yards.
Speaker 2: His rushing attempt marker yesterday it may have even moved up.
Speaker 2: I'm still okay with this. Nineteen and a half rush
Speaker 2: attempts in this game. So obviously, if they're playing from behind,
Speaker 2: that puts a little bit of a wrinkle in it.
Speaker 2: I don't think that's the case. In fact, Derrick Henry
Speaker 2: has only gone over one hundred yards without twenty carries
Speaker 2: once this season. Every other time he has gone over
Speaker 2: one hundred it has been twenty carries. So coming back
Speaker 2: to it, they are implying he's rushing for over one
Speaker 2: hundred yards and they are giving us under twenty rush attempts,
Speaker 2: And again, it might move, it might be up by
Speaker 2: the time you guys see this at twenty. I would
Speaker 2: still go twenty point five over because you've got to
Speaker 2: get him the ball. He's scoring you touchdowns, he's establishing
Speaker 2: the offense. Their passing game has been a little bit
Speaker 2: dicey in general, and I think clock management would be
Speaker 2: a really important thing for this matchup. And I think
Speaker 2: you want to give Derrick Henry the ball at every corner,
Speaker 2: every point of that offense. The guy should have twelve
Speaker 2: to thirteen carries by the half. So I really really
Speaker 2: love this in that betting market. So that's kind of
Speaker 2: my prediction over that twenty carry marker, which gets him
Speaker 2: over to one hundred yards. But again, the rushing yard
Speaker 2: total is like a wild number already, So nineteen and
Speaker 2: a half over rush attempts that's my prediction for Derrick Henry.
Speaker 1: I think the weather in this game too, is something
Speaker 1: like eight degrees. Like that's just like the most obvious,
Speaker 1: Like ram Derrick Henry into the defenders and see if
Speaker 1: they're willing to tackle him in brutally cold.
Speaker 2: Weather, especially in the third quarter, Like did you do
Speaker 2: that in the first quarter? You do that in the
Speaker 2: second and see how great the defense is after getting
Speaker 2: smashed by Derrick Henry the entire game. And eight degree
Speaker 2: weather ridiculous. I've never even been an eight degree weather.
Speaker 2: I don't know what that's like.
Speaker 1: Never been an eight degree weather in my whole life.
Speaker 2: I was born in California, I live in Arizona. I'm
Speaker 2: a West Coast baby. I have never I've been in
Speaker 2: I think twenty five or twenty four degree weather. I've
Speaker 2: never been in teams or single digit or negative weather
Speaker 2: in my life.
Speaker 1: I knew you were a West Coast guy. I am
Speaker 1: in awe of that fact, though, that is to never
Speaker 1: have experienced you ever got skiing or anything?
Speaker 2: You know, no, never gone I've been in snow. We
Speaker 2: have snow up north here even.
Speaker 1: I mean barely. If you've only been in the twenty
Speaker 1: degree weather.
Speaker 2: It's yeah, I've only been in snow like a handful
Speaker 2: of times, but I've never been in a single digit
Speaker 2: degree weather.
Speaker 1: Ericson, have you ever been in cold weather? Yes?
Speaker 3: Constantly in cold weather right now sucks?
Speaker 2: Is it single digits where you are right now?
Speaker 3: Not right now?
Speaker 1: No, But it's actually an unseasonably warm day here in Denver.
Speaker 1: It's thirty degrees right now.
Speaker 2: Oh that's like fifty five to I'm wearing shorts right now,
Speaker 2: so wow, that's wild Ericson or the.
Speaker 3: Thing too, was when it comes to the cold weather,
Speaker 3: it's really not even when it's the temperature outside, it's
Speaker 3: it's wind. Sure, that's what makes it actually feel cold
Speaker 3: because it can say, oh, it's like twenty eight degrees,
Speaker 3: like okay, if you go outside and there's no wind,
Speaker 3: you're like, okay, this isn't like terrible. But the minute
Speaker 3: that the wind picks up, that's when it feels like
Speaker 3: zero degrees.
Speaker 2: And I've been in like twenty something with wind, and
Speaker 2: it's like it's the most just heart wrenching thing to
Speaker 2: experience in my life. But just idea.
Speaker 1: I've skied up in Quebec in like negative degree weather
Speaker 1: and that was like you do that and then you
Speaker 1: come back and it's like nine degrees and you're like,
Speaker 1: this is warm compared to you know, negative twelve.
Speaker 2: Yeah, my wife's from Wisconsin, so like she knows, I
Speaker 2: do not. I just don't have like any I can't
Speaker 2: fathom that type of cold, but I know, like relative
Speaker 2: cold to your fingers and stuff like that. All right, Well,
Speaker 2: if you guys do that, I'm gonna go ten during
Speaker 2: the game. Yeah, so I fight.
Speaker 1: Ericson with this eight degree weather. What do you think
Speaker 1: about Derrick Henry over nineteen and a half rushing temps?
Speaker 3: I mean, I think Welsh made the good case for
Speaker 3: it why he picked the rushing temps and not the
Speaker 3: rushing yard. So I think that that was a good
Speaker 3: way to approach it. I'm just trying to think from
Speaker 3: the Buffalo Bill's perspective. Yes, they know that they're gonna
Speaker 3: want to feed Derrick Henry, But does it matter that
Speaker 3: the Buffalo Bills know that? And this is a matchup
Speaker 3: that Derek Henry's dominated anyway, even when he wasn't on
Speaker 3: the Ravens.
Speaker 2: Like, yeah, like one hundred and ninety I think it's
Speaker 2: like one hundred and ninety yards in their last matchup,
Speaker 2: So he dominated.
Speaker 3: This the Sean McDermott defense when he's not even been
Speaker 3: on the Ravens before, and this is the best situation
Speaker 3: he's ever been in. So I find it the only
Speaker 3: the only hole I could find is if he just
Speaker 3: doesn't start off the game great. I know we've seen
Speaker 3: a lot of games with Derek. I mean, and I'm
Speaker 3: sure you can attest to this. Worm were in the
Speaker 3: first half, it's like like it really hasn't been working.
Speaker 3: In the second half, he just explodes Like that happens
Speaker 3: a lot too. So as a way to a fun
Speaker 3: approach could be you bet the under on the first
Speaker 3: half and you bet the over on in the second
Speaker 3: half for Derrick Henry, which I think will be kind
Speaker 3: of cool. But yeah, I mean, they're going to establish
Speaker 3: a run with him and he's probably gonna go over
Speaker 3: one hundred and tap twenty twenty four. It's probably hit
Speaker 3: both twenty.
Speaker 2: Four carries one hundred and ninety nine rushing yards in
Speaker 2: the last matchup against Buffalo.
Speaker 1: Yeah, and you know, there's a lot of talk about
Speaker 1: how the Bills defense was missing a bunch of key
Speaker 1: pieces in that Week four matchups.
Speaker 3: It didn't matter.
Speaker 1: That's like, it's like, I think the Bills will be
Speaker 1: better prepared than they were in Week four, but I
Speaker 1: also don't know that it matters, Like the way this run.
Speaker 3: Do you think the Bills are gonna do what the
Speaker 3: Steelers did? And they're like, all right, let Lamar run
Speaker 3: on us? Whatsoever?
Speaker 1: I think yes, because they're gonna want him to wear
Speaker 1: down and say, oh, how many hits he's gonna want
Speaker 1: to take in the cold. And I'm not saying that's
Speaker 1: the correct strategy, but that would be my guess is
Speaker 1: to say, let's not let Derek mean Derek Henry. The
Speaker 1: first play of the game in Week four had an
Speaker 1: eighty seven years touchdown, Like they're not gonna want to
Speaker 1: see that happen again. But you know the Ravens defense
Speaker 1: is also playing different now too. But yeah, yeah, just
Speaker 1: in terms of that particular matchup, Like, I do think
Speaker 1: the Bills will be better in this game, both better
Speaker 1: prepared and healthier, and we'll execute better, but I'm not
Speaker 1: sure it will matter when it comes to stopping Derek Henry.
Speaker 2: Yeah, and also I threw up the last four matchups
Speaker 2: when I loosely say that two of those were against
Speaker 2: the Steelers, one was against Houston, and then you also
Speaker 2: have the Browns in here. In there here are in
Speaker 2: descending order, his rushing yards over the last four games,
Speaker 2: one hundred and eighty six, one hundred and thirty eight,
Speaker 2: one hundred and forty seven, and one hundred and sixty
Speaker 2: two one hundred and sixty two. Like I said, twenty
Speaker 2: or more carries. Three of those four games, he went
Speaker 2: twenty four or more carries as well, So I mean, like,
Speaker 2: those are not Carolina, those are not Tampa. Like those
Speaker 2: are good is for the most part, especially Pittsburgh on
Speaker 2: the run and they are demolishing and they're establishing, and
Speaker 2: Derrick Henry's on another level. So feel pretty good.
Speaker 1: The other thing too, which we didn't mention yet, Zay Flowers.
Speaker 1: As at the time we're recording this, it's not clear
Speaker 1: if he's going to play. And you know, last week,
Speaker 1: the Ravens, the way they talked about it made it
Speaker 1: seem like there would be, you know, much better chance
Speaker 1: of him playing this week than there was last week.
Speaker 1: But we don't have any kind of word that it's
Speaker 1: definitely happening. He probably will be limited in some capacity
Speaker 1: even if he does play. That is just another excuse
Speaker 1: to because Mark Andrews does not have a very good
Speaker 1: career against the Bills, They've typically done a good job
Speaker 1: of limiting him. So if he's limited and nose Flowers like,
Speaker 1: why do anything other than, you know, combine for forty
Speaker 1: runs between Lamar and Derrick Henry. So, Eric Sidon, your
Speaker 1: prediction is on the Bills offense side of this one.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm looking at James Cook. I think that he's
Speaker 3: going to struggle in this matchup, So I'm gonna go
Speaker 3: under his rushing yards fifty six and a half rushing yards.
Speaker 3: We're talking about the Bills run defense. How it's not
Speaker 3: necessarily great. It's a good spot for Dereck Henry. I
Speaker 3: think this is a terrible spot for the Bills running offense.
Speaker 3: Two running backs the season have surpassed fifty five and
Speaker 3: a half rushing yards against the Baltimore Ravens. One was
Speaker 3: sake One Barkley, the other was Najie Harris, and he
Speaker 3: got to play this. He got to play the Ravens
Speaker 3: three times and he went over his rushing yards one time.
Speaker 3: So I look as the Ravens defense has improved in
Speaker 3: the second half of the year in their secondary, their
Speaker 3: run defense has been good all year long, like that
Speaker 3: has not been one of their issues. Obviously, playing with
Speaker 3: leads helps that, but even in more back and forth games,
Speaker 3: like teams have not been able to run the ball effectively.
Speaker 3: And James Cook is the epitome of a boom er
Speaker 3: bust running back, like he has had monster games where
Speaker 3: he's gone over one hundred yards and he has games
Speaker 3: where he's like thirty. And I think this is a
Speaker 3: matchup in game script where you're not necessarily seeing Buffalo
Speaker 3: run away. I mean they're underdogs, right, Like they're projected
Speaker 3: to lose this game, So I don't think this is
Speaker 3: a James Cook spot. So I like the under here
Speaker 3: in a really tough matchup where I don't think it's
Speaker 3: gonna be him. I mean Ty Johnson, like they love
Speaker 3: Tay Johnson like, so I know Ray Davis is also
Speaker 3: banged up. He had a concussion last week, so I
Speaker 3: don't know if he's gonna play, but I think you
Speaker 3: might see a lot of Ty Johnson James Cook in
Speaker 3: the passing game a little bit more versus just like
Speaker 3: running up the middle against this Ravens run defense that
Speaker 3: you can't really run the ball effectively on So I'm
Speaker 3: gonna go under on James Cook.
Speaker 1: Ty Johnson went to school where Maryland. Yes, Sarah, you
Speaker 1: a turp we else what do you think about James Cook?
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm into this one. I mean, it's gonna be
Speaker 2: a much tougher matchup. We know they can go away
Speaker 2: from it. If you are on the side of Baltimore,
Speaker 2: maybe being up a little bit, they're gonna be slanging
Speaker 2: the ball a bit more. Josh Allen might be taking it.
Speaker 2: I'm into this one. I don't have as good of
Speaker 2: a feel, I think as some of these others. I'm
Speaker 2: really into a lot of those others. Cook is also, like,
Speaker 2: you know, you're a rushing touchdown leader, Like I don't
Speaker 2: think they would be afraid to try to establish some
Speaker 2: stuff with him. But to your point, like Ty Johnson's
Speaker 2: going to come into this game, Josh Allen take some
Speaker 2: of that rushing equity away. So it would have to
Speaker 2: be kind of like this is an above board game
Speaker 2: for Cook, or they have a really established lead and
Speaker 2: they're trying to manage or establish clock, or again they're
Speaker 2: just able to run all over Baltimore, which really isn't
Speaker 2: something that happens, so I see the light on this.
Speaker 2: I'm probably not as like adamant about some of the
Speaker 2: others that Erickson's got, but I think this, I get
Speaker 2: the logic on its smart play.
Speaker 1: I just with how good this game is. I just
Speaker 1: want to ask you guys, like, who do you think wins?
Speaker 1: Would you lay the point in a half with the Ravens?
Speaker 1: Would you take the point in a half with the
Speaker 1: Bills totals fifty one and a half? How do you
Speaker 1: see this playing out from the team perspective? Whilst you
Speaker 1: can go.
Speaker 2: First, I'm gonna go on the side of the Ravens.
Speaker 2: I think it's a super close matchup. There's a part
Speaker 2: of me that I kind of want to lay the over.
Speaker 2: It's just again, it's a big number. If I were
Speaker 2: to play aside, if it was total or spread, I
Speaker 2: probably would go on on Baltimore minus one and a
Speaker 2: half over playing the over or under.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, it's really fascinating to me that this
Speaker 1: game started with Bills as small favorites and almost immediately
Speaker 1: flipped to the Ravens being being you know, early favorites.
Speaker 1: It's still Wednesday, you know, as of the day we're
Speaker 1: recording this, so we'll see kind of where that shakes
Speaker 1: out by the end of the week. But that very
Speaker 1: quick switch kind of stood out to me ericson how
Speaker 1: do you see this one play out?
Speaker 3: I agree, I like the Ravens. I think that I
Speaker 3: would just I was betting this game, I probably bet
Speaker 3: the Ravens bunny line and not sweat Oh my god,
Speaker 3: they only won by one point Like that just sounds
Speaker 3: like a terrible way to enjoy this game, Like the
Speaker 3: Ravens are winning and then they win and then oh wait,
Speaker 3: they didn't win by one and a half points, and
Speaker 3: then you just feel like an idiot. So I think
Speaker 3: I would just pay a little bit more for the
Speaker 3: money line play. And I really like the over bills.
Speaker 3: Games at home have gone over and we know the
Speaker 3: Ravens have been an over machine this year, and so
Speaker 3: I would like the game too. I mean, that's another
Speaker 3: way to enjoy this game from the fun aspect, Right,
Speaker 3: you don't sweat the side, you just bet. Oh, I'm
Speaker 3: gonna bet on the two guys that are one of
Speaker 3: them is gonna win MVP, Like this should be a
Speaker 3: fun game to watch. T White Sunday Night and there's
Speaker 3: gonna be points. So I like the over, but Ravens
Speaker 3: money line for me taking the bills.
Speaker 1: I refuse to curse my team by giving us a
Speaker 1: quick clean sweep of picking them, so I will pick
Speaker 1: the bills.
Speaker 2: He's wearing a Ravens shirt. I want to play a
Speaker 2: Baltimore Rason.
Speaker 3: You can take the bills against the spread.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'll take the bills to cover Ravens to it.
Speaker 2: I actually think it's bad luck because I think I
Speaker 2: think the world knows what you're trying to do, and
Speaker 2: I think that's worse luck that you're doing that. I'm
Speaker 2: just gonna point that out. I think it's bad luck
Speaker 2: that you're doing that at wearing a purple Baltimore raven shirt.
Speaker 1: I actually very like, in all seriousness, I am like
Speaker 1: very legitimately, like I mean, I would just flip a coin, honestly,
Speaker 1: like I could see either. And the interesting thing too,
Speaker 1: is when you look at a lot of games and
Speaker 1: you're like, well, I think if this team wins, is
Speaker 1: going to be close, but if this other team wins,
Speaker 1: is gonna be blow out. Like I could see literally
Speaker 1: anything playout. I could see either team winning close. I
Speaker 1: could see either team winning in a blowout, like it
Speaker 1: would not shock me any result in this game, which
Speaker 1: is one of the reasons why it's so exciting. And
Speaker 1: all the other games this week are like I think
Speaker 1: every game is a six point spread or bigger. This
Speaker 1: one is just a point and a half. Like there's
Speaker 1: a reason it's it's the game of the week. I'm
Speaker 1: not one of these people who thinks like Lamar can't
Speaker 1: play in the postseason. I think that narrative is completely
Speaker 1: over blown and I could throw out a thousand stats
Speaker 1: why I think that's amazing, but amazing he was amazing
Speaker 1: last week. And also like, like I mean, Alan has
Speaker 1: always been really good in the playoffs, even though it's
Speaker 1: largely against seven seeds. I don't know. This is just
Speaker 1: a really fun game.
Speaker 2: Let me ask you this question. I haven't been on.
Speaker 2: I hand you five hundred dollars, and I say, go
Speaker 2: and put this on Buffalo plus one and a half
Speaker 2: or Baltimore minus one and a half. What are you doing?
Speaker 1: I think? And if you'd like to give me the
Speaker 1: five hundred dollars, I will accept. I think I think
Speaker 1: I would probably put it on the Ravens.
Speaker 2: Oh my gosh, I'm so shocked. I'm so shocked. I actually,
Speaker 2: of course it is. Don't lie.
Speaker 1: It's okay.
Speaker 2: We can sweep. I know, I agree, it can go
Speaker 2: any direction. That's why this is going to be like
Speaker 2: the best game of the weekends. Can be so fun.
Speaker 1: But come on, I mean, the difference the difference to me,
Speaker 1: and we can get off this game. I was actually
Speaker 1: joking when I said, we go super long on this,
Speaker 1: and we kind of have naturally, but we'll wrap up
Speaker 1: in a second. I to me, the difference of the
Speaker 1: game is like both offenses are great in pretty much
Speaker 1: every way, Like quarterbacks are playing an elite level, great
Speaker 1: run games, Like both offensive lines are playing well, like
Speaker 1: the assuming Zay is okay, this is like just there's
Speaker 1: no knock against either offense. And the Ravens defense has
Speaker 1: been playing better the second half of the season, like
Speaker 1: particularly that they have the running defense that the Bills
Speaker 1: don't like. That to me is like the difference. But
Speaker 1: the Bills are at home, so maybe that cancels it out.
Speaker 1: I don't know. If this game was in Baltimore, I
Speaker 1: would like I don't know what the line would be,
Speaker 1: but I whatever it is, i'd be laying the points
Speaker 1: with probably.
Speaker 2: Three point five. The fact that it's minus three point five.
Speaker 1: The fact that it's in Buffalo is like enough of
Speaker 1: a hesitation for me. But yeah, really fun. I mean,
Speaker 1: I'm really excited for this one regardless.
Speaker 3: Do you think lasting on it. Do you think that
Speaker 3: the Ravens can win if they have to play from behind? Yes,
Speaker 3: like if they fall down, you think they can so
Speaker 3: in Zay Flowers don't play, They're done fourteen nothing.
Speaker 1: It's Day's not playing that. I would feel worse about
Speaker 1: saying they can play from behind, but in a vacuum,
Speaker 1: like excluding the conversation about injuries. Yes, I don't think
Speaker 1: there's anything to the idea of like the Ravens have
Speaker 1: to be ahead so they can lean on Henry and
Speaker 1: that's the only way to win. Like Lamar, I mean
Speaker 1: again with Lamar was a better passer than Josh Allen
Speaker 1: this season. Now you could say he had, you know,
Speaker 1: more help from the receivers or whatever, but like this,
Speaker 1: he was better just strifically looking at the passing alone
Speaker 1: in terms of the advanced that's then Josh Allen this,
Speaker 1: he's they were both amazing. That's not I'm knock going
Speaker 1: to Allen. But like it's not like, oh, if Lamar's
Speaker 1: would drop back and pass, he can't do it, Like
Speaker 1: absolutely they can.
Speaker 2: If Lamar is down by double digit points at any point,
Speaker 2: I'm live betting his over rushing yard.
Speaker 3: Are you gonna take the five hundred dollars and then
Speaker 3: put it on the see That's what where I'm actually
Speaker 3: waiting for him, is he's gonna win. For them to
Speaker 3: fall down fourteen nothing and that you.
Speaker 2: Know what I would split it up. I would split
Speaker 2: I would go half of that on Baltimore and whatever
Speaker 2: the plus money is, and then I would take Lamar
Speaker 2: Jackson rushing live rushing yards, whatever the number is. If
Speaker 2: he's down by two touchdowns and I'm hitting that.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean if they're down like twenty eight to
Speaker 1: ten at halftime, like I'm not an idiot, Like I'm
Speaker 1: not gonna go bet on the Ravens. But if it's
Speaker 1: like a ten point deficit, twelve point deficit, even fourteen,
Speaker 1: like I don't think that's something they can't do. The
Speaker 1: Kimmy at all really excited for that one. We went
Speaker 1: a lot longer than we expect show. Yeah, I hope
Speaker 1: everybody you know can take away some some bets that
Speaker 1: they can win from our predictions this week. Hopefully we
Speaker 1: have as good a week as we did last week
Speaker 1: for Ericson and Welsh. I'm Ryan warmly thanks everybody for
Speaker 1: tuning in and we'll see again next week. Thanks for
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