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Speaker 1: The Action Network Podcast Podcast.

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Speaker 2: If you are even remotely a savage, you'll run these

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Speaker 2: people over for a second.

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Speaker 1: Happy Friday, everybody, Welcome in to the Action Network Podcast

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Speaker 1: presented by bet MGM. I'm your host this week Brendan

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Speaker 1: Glasheen joined by Sean Zarillo and Billy Ward. That means

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Speaker 1: our UFC betting previews are back. This is our third

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Speaker 1: episode since the return. It's our first episode post Super Bowl.

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Speaker 1: So we're off and running here. This train is back

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Speaker 1: on the tracks and we are smooth sailing here now

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Speaker 1: going forward in the spring into the summer subscribe rate

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Speaker 1: review because every Friday, Sean and Billy will give out

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Speaker 1: some underdogs, some props, some best bets in UFC. This

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Speaker 1: week UFC two ninety eight at the Honda Center aka

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Speaker 1: the Pond in Anaheim, California. We'll dive into the main event,

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Speaker 1: also the guy's fight of the night, and also some

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Speaker 1: of their picks could also be prelim fights, so we'll

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Speaker 1: we'll find out what direction they'd like to go. We'll

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Speaker 1: start with the main event, guys, six o'clock tomorrow night

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Speaker 1: in Anaheim, Volkanovski taken on Tollporia.

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Speaker 3: That is the main event featherweight title belt.

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Speaker 1: Sean Zarillo looking at BETMGM are presenting sponsor Toporia is

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Speaker 1: the slight underdog at plus one oh five Volkanovsky minus

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Speaker 1: one twenty five pick them fight. So do you have

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Speaker 1: a sigh you lean to and if not, how would

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Speaker 1: you like to bet the fight?

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Speaker 4: Yeah?

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Speaker 5: I like Tapora here is the underdog, and specifically saying

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Speaker 5: as an underdog because he did open around plus one sixty,

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Speaker 5: but earlier in this week this line essentially moved to

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Speaker 5: a Pickham price. More money has come back in on Volkanovski,

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Speaker 5: pushing him back up to actual favoritism status and getting

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Speaker 5: to Poria BACKUPUS money. If you're able to get plus

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Speaker 5: money on areas side pre fight, that is where I

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Speaker 5: put my money. I also like him to win inside

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Speaker 5: the distance at around plus two hundred, projected that prop

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Speaker 5: closer to plus one sixty in terms of how I

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Speaker 5: think the fight plays out. Most important stat here is

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Speaker 5: the eight year age differential between the pair. We regularly

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Speaker 5: talk about this eight year age gap on the podcast.

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Speaker 5: Sometimes it's bigger, sometimes it's smaller, sometimes ten plus years,

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Speaker 5: sometimes seven years. But in that eight plus year age range,

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Speaker 5: MMA fighters more than a thousand fights worth of sample

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Speaker 5: when they're eight years younger than their opponent. They went

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Speaker 5: about thirteen percent more than the betting market tells you,

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Speaker 5: covering an average line of about minus two to seventeen.

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Speaker 5: That's roughly sixty eight percent compared the average betting odds

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Speaker 5: of minus one twenty three fifty five percent implied. So

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Speaker 5: the younger fighters tend to be underrated, tend to have

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Speaker 5: fewer fans. The older fighters generally have more fans, more

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Speaker 5: popular like Volkanovski. But also in these smaller weight divisions,

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Speaker 5: I think people underrate the fractional decreases in speed, fractional

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Speaker 5: decreases and athleticism. Volkanovski coming in off of a knockout

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Speaker 5: loss just six months or so ago, actually I think

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Speaker 5: even less than that. It was back in October, so

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Speaker 5: not you know, maybe as much time to get back

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Speaker 5: into camp, get his skills fully ramped back up. But

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Speaker 5: also he's thirty five years old and just declining, where

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Speaker 5: Taporia is in his prime. Very reminiscent of when Cotter

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Speaker 5: McGregor rose to fame. Loud talking, very brash European already

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Speaker 5: has featherweight champ and his Instagram Bio was taking pictures

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Speaker 5: with featherweight tout about the other day. As confident as

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Speaker 5: they come undefeated, and with that undefeated nature, you do

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Speaker 5: get fighters who are a bit more confident and a bit,

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Speaker 5: you know, a bit tougher to beat inside the octagon

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Speaker 5: just because they don't have the knowledge of what it

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Speaker 5: feels like to lose. So uh Tporia I think is

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Speaker 5: going to be a physical problem for Molkanowski, particularly the

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Speaker 5: early going. He's gonna be able to apply pressure back

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Speaker 5: Volkanowski up, be the spear or boxer and look to

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Speaker 5: box Volkanowski's head off. He has more power and he

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Speaker 5: has more durability if he's able to force the boxing exchanges.

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Speaker 5: If this fight extends, if it gets into the third round,

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Speaker 5: fourth round, Volkanovsky's able to create a little space, get distant,

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Speaker 5: kickbox with Toi Poia, I think he can certainly work

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Speaker 5: his way back into the fight. Has great cardio, world

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Speaker 5: class partio, and he makes phenomenal in fight adjustments. He's

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Speaker 5: great at seeing what his opponents are doing early and

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Speaker 5: then adjusting to that marking off of it. So I

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Speaker 5: like Toaporia win this fight early. I like him to

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Speaker 5: win the early minutes. I like him to potentially get

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Speaker 5: a finish within the first couple of rounds to Pouria

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Speaker 5: inside the distances is at a plus two hundred. His

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Speaker 5: money line because he should bank early rounds towards winning decision.

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Speaker 5: And then also his round one prop I think is

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Speaker 5: interesting too at a big, juicy number. And if you're

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Speaker 5: looking to bet the favorite here in Volkanovski, I think

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Speaker 5: you'll find a better live price either after the first

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Speaker 5: or second round, or potentially after both rounds. I'd look

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Speaker 5: for him to make a comeback instead of betting and preefight.

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Speaker 1: All right, good stuff, and based on Billy Ward's right up,

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Speaker 1: you can find action Network dot Com, Action Network app,

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Speaker 1: the UFC Luck Ratings. You noted the line move, Billy,

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Speaker 1: You think it's fairly valued now at this stage.

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Speaker 3: You could have got a better.

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Speaker 1: Price on on Volkanowski earlier on But where are you

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Speaker 1: at now?

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Speaker 3: Same direction as Gorilla.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean this line's moved kind of all over

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Speaker 4: the place. I think there was like a matter of

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Speaker 4: hours in there we could have actually got volkanovskid even

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Speaker 4: money or slight plus money. I'd be wrong on that,

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Speaker 4: but it's you know, it's been all over the place.

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Speaker 4: I think we're about right. But you know, to add

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Speaker 4: on to the age trends that Zerillo mentioned, the other

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Speaker 4: one I wanted to bring up is no fighter thirty

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Speaker 4: five and older has ever won a title fight at

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Speaker 4: one fifty five or below. This is one forty five. Obviously,

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Speaker 4: Volk's had a ton of fun with that. He did

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Speaker 4: his old Man volt commercial for some company in Australia,

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Speaker 4: showed up his old Man vulcan at the press conference,

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Speaker 4: pretended to fall asleep and Tilperiri was talking. So he's

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Speaker 4: aware of these things and he's acknowledging it. If there's

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Speaker 4: anyone who can break those trends, it's probably Alexander Volkanowski

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Speaker 4: just you know, supreme athlete in general, probably the best

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Speaker 4: featherweight of all time, one of the best fighters of

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Speaker 4: all time, never lost in the division. But you know,

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Speaker 4: I look at the skill set of both these guys

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Speaker 4: and I'm trying to make a comparison for who Toperio

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Speaker 4: reminds me of. In the best comparison I have for

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Speaker 4: him is a young Alexander Volkanowski. You know, he's really

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Speaker 4: well rounded, can do it all. In his debut, Topurio

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Speaker 4: got five takedowns or just throwing sub attempts. He thought

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Speaker 4: Josh Emmett took him down a bunch of times. He

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Speaker 4: fights grapplers, he stands and bangs and trades with them.

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Speaker 4: Very reminiscent of Volkanovski's skill set. But eight years younger,

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Speaker 4: probably at this stage a better athlete, you know, I

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Speaker 4: don't know if prime for prime, I would say that necessarily.

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Speaker 4: But and then we look at his last fight. It

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Speaker 4: was his first five round fight, the only round that

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Speaker 4: anyone gave to his opponent. Josh Emmett was the first

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Speaker 4: two judges gave him at the first Topurira looked fine,

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Speaker 4: going for twenty five minutes. I don't see Cardio being

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Speaker 4: a problem. I'm not gonna say it's as strong as

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Speaker 4: it is for Volkanovski, just because he hasn't really proven it.

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Speaker 4: And it's easy to go five rounds when you're dominating

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Speaker 4: a guy. It's a lot harder when you're in the

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Speaker 4: back and forth war. But with that said, it's not

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Speaker 4: like a major concern on the Topiri Topuria side. So

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Speaker 4: I'm going to be actively rooting against my own bet here.

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Speaker 4: I'm wearing my Volkmania shirt but I've got Topuri at

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Speaker 4: slight plus money. And I do like Sean's angle with

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Speaker 4: the live stuff I mentioned last week, Like every bet

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Speaker 4: I took, I wanted a live had if it became available,

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Speaker 4: and that really worked out last week, and I think

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Speaker 4: it's going to be a similar week and that there's

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Speaker 4: a lot of spots we can do that, including the

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Speaker 4: main event.

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Speaker 1: Okay, extensive breakdown on the main event, which also, by

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Speaker 1: the way, main cards on pay per view this week

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Speaker 1: in Anaheim. Make sure we note that because it's been

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Speaker 1: a ESPN plus the last couple of weeks. Let's go

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Speaker 1: to the fight of the night for Zarrillo and Billy

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Speaker 1: Ward Morob d valej.

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Speaker 3: Wow, Della.

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Speaker 1: This is a tough one, ravolish Villi apologies.

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Speaker 3: Henry Sahudo is the match up here? Wow?

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Speaker 1: I could not do that one more time. To be

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Speaker 1: quite honest with you guys, that's our fight of the night. Zaillo,

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Speaker 1: what do you think? Same kind of analysis here? When

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Speaker 1: you look at the fight, how do you see it

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Speaker 1: playing out? And based on that, how do you want

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Speaker 1: to bet it?

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Speaker 4: Yeah?

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Speaker 5: Another older fighter here in Henry Sahudo, old for his

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Speaker 5: division average age for one hundred and thirty five pounds.

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Speaker 5: It's thirty one years old. Su Hudo's thirty seven has

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Speaker 5: said that he will retire if he loses this fight.

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Speaker 5: And I've seen a lot of takes about how Morob's

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Speaker 5: a wrestler and Henry is an Olympic wrestler and this

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Speaker 5: is the best takedown defense that Morob has ever seen.

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Speaker 5: I think that's crap. I've also seen takes that Henry

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Speaker 5: is the better striker. Disagree. Marob has Henri covered everywhere here,

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Speaker 5: and I think this is a very bad matchup for Henry.

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Speaker 5: I actually think Morob is going to finish him. And

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Speaker 5: Morob inside the distance at about plus four to fifty

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Speaker 5: knockout plus six to fifty I think are interesting, not

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Speaker 5: something I'm necessarily going to bet straight. Might be on

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Speaker 5: my round robin tickets, I'll have it somewhere, but Henry's

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Speaker 5: very durable. I just get this feeling that Morob is

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Speaker 5: going to faign a takedown and he's going to land

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Speaker 5: something crumble, Henry get on top and the ref's going

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Speaker 5: to have to step in. But Morob's performance in his

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Speaker 5: last fight against God was and I'm not saying this

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Speaker 5: to Peece superlative. I'm saying it because it's true. It

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Speaker 5: is the most impressive performance I've ever seen. In Amma Age.

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Speaker 5: He shot forty nine takedowns and attempted four hundred and

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Speaker 5: one total strikes across twenty five minutes. And the most

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Speaker 5: amazing thing about him shooting forty nine takedowns in twenty

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Speaker 5: five minutes is that's actually below his average in the UFC.

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Speaker 5: The average nine point eight takedowns for five minutes. In

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Speaker 5: that fight, he averages eleven point two per five minutes

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Speaker 5: across his UFC run. This guy's impossible to fight. He's

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Speaker 5: impossible to look good against. He basically starts a process

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Speaker 5: where he applies pressure, turns that into a takedown. As

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Speaker 5: you're trying to defend the takedown, he's striking you, and

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Speaker 5: each thing you switch to, he switches to the one

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Speaker 5: thing you can't defend while he's also controlling you. And

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Speaker 5: it's not enough just to defend the takedowns. I don't

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Speaker 5: care how good Suito's takedown defense is. He still has

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Speaker 5: win the fight while actively defending these stakedowns. Morob just

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Speaker 5: seems like an impossible guy to fight unless you can

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Speaker 5: either one hurt him. Or two get on top of him.

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Speaker 5: We saw Marlon Marias hurt him. Marias had faster hands.

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Speaker 5: Marias is like the best fighter in the world for

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Speaker 5: rounds or for five minutes against anybody. Marlon Marias is

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Speaker 5: an incredibly talented fighter, just has no cardio, no durability.

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Speaker 5: He hurt Morob bad. And Morob also got submitted by

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Speaker 5: Ricky Simon earlier in his career, so there are ways

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Speaker 5: to finish Morob. He just seems like a brick shit

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Speaker 5: house and like he's actually impossible to finish at times,

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Speaker 5: and I don't really see Henry hurting him. I think

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Speaker 5: Sehudo's best chance here is to go for offensive takedowns

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Speaker 5: early and try to get on top of Mirob and

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Speaker 5: not give Morob the space to implement his game plan

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Speaker 5: and implement that pressure and implement all those strikes. So

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Speaker 5: if Henry offensively wrestles here gets on top, I think

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Speaker 5: he has a chance. Otherwise I think he's gonna get

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Speaker 5: absolutely destroyed, and I think he will be retiring and

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Speaker 5: laying down his gloves at the end of the fight.

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Speaker 5: So Morob to me, I would lay the juice here

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Speaker 5: up to about minus two twenty five. I also think

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Speaker 5: he's a pretty safe parlay piece. And then also even

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Speaker 5: if Sukudo wins that first round, I'd love to bet

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Speaker 5: moroblive after round one. I think he's a phenomenal I

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Speaker 5: bet if that price moves.

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Speaker 4: In at all.

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Speaker 5: I think if he's still minus four hundred after round one,

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Speaker 5: he's probably a pretty safe live bet to lay it

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Speaker 5: even to that point too, assuming he wins that first round.

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Speaker 5: So Morob pre fight, I think parlay piece, lay the

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Speaker 5: juice up to minus two forty, considering that knockout prop

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Speaker 5: or is inside the distance props, and then all live

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Speaker 5: bet as well.

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Speaker 3: A brick shit house. That's the title of the podcast.

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Speaker 5: So striking, that's so much better in his last fight,

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Speaker 5: and I think that's you know, I think people are

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Speaker 5: really overlooking that. They just see him as the sort

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Speaker 5: of one dimensional, like controlled grappler who's really muscular. When

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Speaker 5: he's implementing that into his boxing, and I do think

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Speaker 5: initiating all these takedowns, getting Henry's hands low, I think

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Speaker 5: he's going to catch him at some point. So Morob

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Speaker 5: is getting better, He's going to be champion. He's going

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Speaker 5: to beat Chon O'Malley or Cheeto ver inevitable. In my opinion,

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Speaker 5: I think the UFC has been holding him back from

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Speaker 5: superstardom because his style is not as exciting. But I

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Speaker 5: think he's been the best one thirty five hour on

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Speaker 5: the planet for a little bit.

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Speaker 1: We recording a Friday morning, So right now, looking at

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Speaker 1: bet MGM, you can get minus two ten right now

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Speaker 1: on the price for Morob.

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Speaker 3: So there you go, if you are listening on this Friday.

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Speaker 1: Billy, similar sentiments to Zarillo or would you care to counter.

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Speaker 4: No, I'm on the same side of this couple things

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Speaker 4: I want. Well, one thing I wanted to correct. Sean

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Speaker 4: mentioned he got submitted by Ricky Simone. He didn't really,

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Speaker 4: the record says he got submitted. The fight ended with

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Speaker 4: Simon on a guillotine. Morob like popped right up, all excited,

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Speaker 4: put a silly hat on all that stuff, and then

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Speaker 4: the doctors told him to sit back down. And then

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Speaker 4: after the doctors informed him that he had been unconscious

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Speaker 4: for that and somehow gave the fight to Simone despite

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Speaker 4: volashviely being up on the scorecards. So it was a

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Speaker 4: really weird, like I don't understand how you tell a

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Speaker 4: guy after the fact that no, you were actually asleep

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Speaker 4: there despite us seeing you dancing around with your silly

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Speaker 4: hat and Ray Longo and all that. So, yeah, that

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Speaker 4: one I didn't get at all. I will say I'm

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Speaker 4: not quite as enthusiastic about them Robs side as Sean,

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Speaker 4: But you know, trans at Sierra a Longo. Sean's a

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Speaker 4: Long Island guy. I think there's a little hometown element

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Speaker 4: to that. But I can't really disagree with anything he

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Speaker 4: said either. Like, you know, he's a little muscular dude.

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Speaker 4: Usually you don't see that kind of output and cardio

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Speaker 4: on guys that built that way. It kind of doesn't

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Speaker 4: make sense by everything I know about every other fighter

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Speaker 4: I've watched in my life, but he somehow does it.

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Speaker 4: Just the insane output. And you know, I did the

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Speaker 4: breakdown of this one, and I mentioned in there the

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Speaker 4: one thing that really swung me is even when he

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Speaker 4: can't get takedowns, he didn't take down Jose Aldo at all,

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Speaker 4: he still won that fight cleanly. And it's because of

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Speaker 4: what Sean mentioned. Every break he's a little bit quicker

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Speaker 4: to punch, he's a little bit quicker to switch between

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Speaker 4: wrestling and striking, so he has ways other than just

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Speaker 4: the takedowns. I think he probably does get Sahuto down

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Speaker 4: a few times. I think Zudo probably gets back up

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Speaker 4: without too much incident along the way, But in the

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Speaker 4: process of getting back up, he's gonna get hit. In

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Speaker 4: the process of separating on the sprawl, so Hudo's gonna

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Speaker 4: get hit. In the process of stepping in and closing

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Speaker 4: that distance, the Hudo's gonna get hit. So even without

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Speaker 4: the takedown, I think Morob finishes this best I saw.

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Speaker 4: I mean, we saw better odds a little bit earlier

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Speaker 4: in the week, but yeah, two of five, two ten,

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Speaker 4: totally fine with it. I also look the knockout prop

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Speaker 4: just because Pudos thirty seven has had one fight in

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Speaker 4: the last four years, got taken down more times in

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Speaker 4: that fight than the rest of his career combined. You know,

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Speaker 4: I could certainly see like a ground and pound finish,

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Speaker 4: especially deeper in this one, if Suhudo just doesn't have

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Speaker 4: it anymore. But my main bet is just laying the

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Speaker 4: money line, and I agree Morob is inevitable, all right, So.

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Speaker 1: In the main event, you guys light the dog, the

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Speaker 1: slight dog, and we're going with the favorite here in

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Speaker 1: morob here for the.

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Speaker 3: Fight of the night.

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Speaker 1: This podcast is probably presented by BETMGM used bonus code

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00:14:50,280 --> 00:14:52,400
Speaker 1: action when signing up to get up to one hundred

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00:14:52,400 --> 00:14:55,000
Speaker 1: and fifty eight dollars in bonus bets when you bet

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Speaker 1: five dollars for new users in Arizona, Colorado, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan,

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00:15:03,240 --> 00:15:08,200
Speaker 1: New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, Virginia, West Virginia, and Wyoming.

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Speaker 1: Terms and conditions apply. Must be twenty one or older.

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Speaker 1: Gambling problem called one eight hundred gambler. What's this week

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Speaker 1: look like for underdogs? UFC two ninety eight in Anaheim, Soilla.

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Speaker 1: What do you think of the week for dogs and

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Speaker 1: who might jump out to?

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Speaker 5: Yeah, have pretty strong opinions on the main card. The

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Speaker 5: prelims are a lot like last week in number of

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Speaker 5: fights with limited data, limited UFC samples for a lot

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Speaker 5: of the fighters, so most of my action will be

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Speaker 5: geared towards this main card. But the final preliminary fight

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Speaker 5: McKenzie Dern against the Mandelmo big sample of both fighters.

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Speaker 5: Two fighters I typically bet against and I don't think

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Speaker 5: I've actually bet on either during their UFC runs, so

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Speaker 5: bit in New territory for me placing a bet on

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Speaker 5: either one of these women, But I do think we're

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Speaker 5: getting a pretty good price here on McKenzie Dern given

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Speaker 5: how this fight should play out. Jerham was a minus

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Speaker 5: two hund her favorite and her last matchup against Jessconraj

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Speaker 5: And there's a lot of similarities between Androje and Lemos,

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Speaker 5: except I think there's actually qualities about Lemos that are

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Speaker 5: much more favorable to Dern that An Andrage fight was.

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Speaker 5: And I bet on Andrage in that fight. So I

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Speaker 5: was very happy with the matchup for Androge against Dern.

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Speaker 5: Pretty happy with this matchup for Dern against Lemosh. First

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Speaker 5: and foremost, just the movement. Androge very active, moving around

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Speaker 5: the cage, very quick, faster hands. Lemosh more of a

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Speaker 5: one strike at a time fighter, and she stands very

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Speaker 5: square and flat footed in the cage. Dern is going

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Speaker 5: to be the one moving around, much more active, much

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Speaker 5: more mobile. Also, you know, in Dern's life, she was

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Speaker 5: dealing with divorce, had separated from her striking coach, a

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Speaker 5: number of things going to that last fight with Androge,

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Speaker 5: back with their striking coach, Jason Prillo now and also

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Speaker 5: actively talking in interviews. Normally I don't care what fighters

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Speaker 5: have to say in interviews. I think this is important

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Speaker 5: because Dern keeps talking about how she needs to go

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Speaker 5: back to a Kabible game plan.

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Speaker 4: Now.

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Speaker 5: She is nothing like could be even in terms of

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Speaker 5: her strength their physicality. She is a fourteen percent career

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Speaker 5: takedown accuracy. She's not very good at getting opponents to

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Speaker 5: the ground, but she is good at forcing the grappling

355
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Speaker 5: and forcing the issue when she wants to, when she's

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Speaker 5: not afraid of her opponents, and I think that's what

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Speaker 5: we're going to see for her from her on Saturday,

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Speaker 5: so I expect her to be very active in pursuit

359
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Speaker 5: of the takedown. She typically averages about three attempts per

360
00:17:23,520 --> 00:17:26,639
Speaker 5: round throughout her career. Shouldn't really go for anything against

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00:17:26,640 --> 00:17:28,400
Speaker 5: on draw. She was just trying to strike that out.

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Speaker 5: So Durn much more grappling upside, Lemos the better striker.

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Speaker 5: I think the finishing upside is fairly comparable. Dern pretty durable.

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Speaker 5: Even the referee had to step in in that fight

365
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Speaker 5: against Andrage. It's not like she was just knocked out cold.

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Speaker 5: So in terms of the finishing upside pretty similar to me,

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Speaker 5: but Dern has more upside to winning the third round

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Speaker 5: on volume because lemoshows bad cardio and Dern is going

369
00:17:50,400 --> 00:17:53,159
Speaker 5: to force high pays, and also Darn is more upside

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Speaker 5: towards winning a ten eight round with grappling control. Lamos

371
00:17:56,520 --> 00:17:59,119
Speaker 5: has been controlled for a substantial amount of time throughout

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Speaker 5: her UFC career. Her title fight lost to y Lejang,

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Speaker 5: she spent sixty five percent of the fight in control

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Speaker 5: position sixteen into twenty five minutes, So there's certainly a

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Speaker 5: potential that Drn, especially in the third round against the

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Speaker 5: tired Limo, she gains position and just holds it, you know,

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Speaker 5: holds the back for the entire round and gets a

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Speaker 5: ten eight threatens a joke, So just more ways towards

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Speaker 5: winning a dominant decision or potentially getting a draw on

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Speaker 5: that plus money side of the equation. And I think

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Speaker 5: Dern also a worthy live bet after the first round too,

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00:18:27,080 --> 00:18:29,399
Speaker 5: giving that cardio discrepancy. As I said, I expect her

383
00:18:29,400 --> 00:18:31,879
Speaker 5: to force a bit higher of a pace and that

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00:18:31,880 --> 00:18:34,280
Speaker 5: should eventually tire a Lemo shout. Even if Durna hasn't

385
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Speaker 5: having success planning the takedowns as long as she's pressuring,

386
00:18:37,600 --> 00:18:40,720
Speaker 5: continually looking for things moving around the octagon and forcing

387
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Speaker 5: Lamos to tage, Chaser should be able to tire her out.

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Speaker 5: So Mackenzie durn plus one sixteen like that down to

389
00:18:46,119 --> 00:18:47,520
Speaker 5: about plus one ten pre fight.

390
00:18:48,720 --> 00:18:51,520
Speaker 1: Okay, and another situation where you might want to jump

391
00:18:51,520 --> 00:18:52,800
Speaker 1: in on a live bet and.

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00:18:54,320 --> 00:18:56,720
Speaker 3: Okay, But again it's one of.

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Speaker 1: Those things where you want to the number's got to

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Speaker 1: be right, but you also got to watch carefully with

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Speaker 1: the cardio and all the other aspects, right, I always

396
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Speaker 1: want to.

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Speaker 3: Be actually made.

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Speaker 5: And also the price, Like if she's minus four hundred

399
00:19:06,280 --> 00:19:07,359
Speaker 5: after round one, you know, I'm.

400
00:19:07,200 --> 00:19:08,440
Speaker 3: Not not inclined.

401
00:19:08,440 --> 00:19:10,919
Speaker 5: But if it's if it's a toss up round, you know,

402
00:19:11,000 --> 00:19:13,680
Speaker 5: and her price doesn't really move, yeah, I'm probably still interested.

403
00:19:13,680 --> 00:19:15,840
Speaker 5: At plus one fifteen after round one, even if even

404
00:19:15,880 --> 00:19:17,960
Speaker 5: if it's like sixty forty that Lamos won the round,

405
00:19:18,160 --> 00:19:20,280
Speaker 5: I do expect her to rally and I expect her

406
00:19:20,320 --> 00:19:23,200
Speaker 5: to get her grappling going at some point. So the

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Speaker 5: last thing I should mention woman strawet fights. This is

408
00:19:25,760 --> 00:19:28,280
Speaker 5: the smallest division in the UFC. These fights typically go

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Speaker 5: to a decision around two thirds at the time the

410
00:19:30,520 --> 00:19:33,000
Speaker 5: line here indicates the opposite that this fight is likely

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Speaker 5: to envy a finish about two thirds of the time. So,

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Speaker 5: as I said, it's very binary. I think either Durn

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Speaker 5: submission or Lemos knockout probably, but I just give during

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Speaker 5: more decision equity if it extends.

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Speaker 1: Okay, Billy, where are you looking this week UFC two

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Speaker 1: ninety eight underdog?

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00:19:49,200 --> 00:19:50,119
Speaker 3: That might jump out to you?

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Speaker 4: Yeah, real quick, before I get to mind. Sean was

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Speaker 4: being nice about it, But Amanda Laimosh is just like

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00:19:55,359 --> 00:19:58,720
Speaker 4: store brand Jessica and Drove, you know, like it's the

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Speaker 4: name of I want to go it from Jessica and Droud.

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Speaker 4: We have Jessic gun Rodger at home. That's that's Amandalaimos.

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Speaker 5: So you too, standing uh standing choke? I mean it

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Speaker 5: was that was a pretty impressive as well.

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Speaker 4: So it was both impressive and like, how has no

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Speaker 4: one taught you to not let that happen to you? Amandalaimos.

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Speaker 4: You're a professional fighter, So like, there's a lot of

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Speaker 4: there's a lot of it, and I like him things.

429
00:20:20,960 --> 00:20:24,720
Speaker 1: Billy, Well, is that do you not like store brand things?

430
00:20:24,800 --> 00:20:27,000
Speaker 1: Are you shaving people who chop snod?

431
00:20:27,080 --> 00:20:28,959
Speaker 4: No problem with that. I'm just saying, you know, if

432
00:20:28,960 --> 00:20:30,920
Speaker 4: we're looking for the premium Jessica and Droge, you're not

433
00:20:30,960 --> 00:20:34,600
Speaker 4: going to find it in Amandalaimos. But uh, anyway, to

434
00:20:35,080 --> 00:20:38,480
Speaker 4: keep this on the rails a little bit here, Roman, people.

435
00:20:38,280 --> 00:20:40,480
Speaker 3: Might watch the tune into the podcast to be store

436
00:20:40,520 --> 00:20:41,040
Speaker 3: brand people.

437
00:20:41,280 --> 00:20:44,880
Speaker 4: So I apologize to those people. I should have opened

438
00:20:45,560 --> 00:20:49,560
Speaker 4: and left that one out. But yeah, Roman copylaf fighting

439
00:20:49,560 --> 00:20:52,359
Speaker 4: Anthony Hernandez kind of just surprised that we saw the

440
00:20:52,440 --> 00:20:54,520
Speaker 4: line this wide. You know, both guys are on four

441
00:20:54,600 --> 00:20:56,960
Speaker 4: fight win streaks. They both kind of had rough starts

442
00:20:56,960 --> 00:20:58,880
Speaker 4: to their UC career where they dropped, you know, first

443
00:20:58,920 --> 00:21:01,520
Speaker 4: two or two out of three something like that, and

444
00:21:01,640 --> 00:21:04,840
Speaker 4: then got it together and have been really impressive. Copylov

445
00:21:04,880 --> 00:21:07,280
Speaker 4: has finished all four of those fights, all by knockout.

446
00:21:07,520 --> 00:21:10,159
Speaker 4: Hernandez has finished three out of the four, all of

447
00:21:10,240 --> 00:21:12,600
Speaker 4: his finishes on the ground, either submission or ground and pound.

448
00:21:13,880 --> 00:21:15,760
Speaker 4: But I still don't see why it's such a wide line.

449
00:21:15,960 --> 00:21:19,760
Speaker 4: The one guy that Hernandez didn't finish, Josh Fremd, Copylov

450
00:21:19,800 --> 00:21:21,720
Speaker 4: made look real bad on the feet, knocked him out.

451
00:21:22,200 --> 00:21:24,680
Speaker 4: Kind of a striker versus grappler situation here. But we've

452
00:21:24,720 --> 00:21:26,680
Speaker 4: got the bigger cage, the bigger pay per view cage.

453
00:21:27,119 --> 00:21:29,040
Speaker 4: Hopyl Loov's a little bit smaller for the division, but

454
00:21:29,080 --> 00:21:31,600
Speaker 4: I think that helps his cardio and just lethal hands,

455
00:21:31,680 --> 00:21:34,879
Speaker 4: lethal striking. I think you can probably catch Hernandez coming in,

456
00:21:36,320 --> 00:21:38,000
Speaker 4: But I also like on top of the just the

457
00:21:38,040 --> 00:21:40,240
Speaker 4: money line inside the distance at plus three thirty, I

458
00:21:40,320 --> 00:21:42,480
Speaker 4: think he kind of has to finish Hernandez here. Hernandez

459
00:21:42,720 --> 00:21:45,760
Speaker 4: just like relentlessly coming forward. You're gonna keep working for stuff,

460
00:21:45,840 --> 00:21:48,720
Speaker 4: keep working for stuff. Surprisingly good cardio for a bigger

461
00:21:48,720 --> 00:21:51,760
Speaker 4: guy who attempts a lot of takedowns, fairly durable, but

462
00:21:51,800 --> 00:21:53,560
Speaker 4: he hasn't fought a guy with the striking ability of

463
00:21:53,600 --> 00:21:56,000
Speaker 4: copy Lov. So if you're gonna play it, I was

464
00:21:56,040 --> 00:21:58,760
Speaker 4: looking at knockout. The line is just so ridiculously close

465
00:21:58,800 --> 00:22:01,240
Speaker 4: between knockout and inside the st that I'll take the

466
00:22:01,280 --> 00:22:03,880
Speaker 4: plus three thirty or so inside the distance about half

467
00:22:03,920 --> 00:22:06,159
Speaker 4: the in and on Copylov, and then you know, to

468
00:22:06,240 --> 00:22:08,879
Speaker 4: ride what Sean's been saying all podcast. If we get

469
00:22:08,920 --> 00:22:10,800
Speaker 4: through two rounds and Kopylov has look good for one

470
00:22:10,840 --> 00:22:12,520
Speaker 4: or two, and we get a big price at Hernandez,

471
00:22:12,880 --> 00:22:14,359
Speaker 4: come back on the house the other way.

472
00:22:14,680 --> 00:22:16,399
Speaker 5: Yeah, I think this is a phenomenal I bet for

473
00:22:16,600 --> 00:22:19,520
Speaker 5: Hernandez and I actually like him pre fight. T we're

474
00:22:19,520 --> 00:22:21,680
Speaker 5: on the other side, we're on opposite sides of this one.

475
00:22:22,480 --> 00:22:25,520
Speaker 5: If Koppolov doesn't hurt him to the body quickly, I

476
00:22:25,760 --> 00:22:29,200
Speaker 5: think he's going to get drowned. And it's a very

477
00:22:29,840 --> 00:22:32,760
Speaker 5: It's not the same dynamic as Morob, but Hernandez is

478
00:22:32,840 --> 00:22:34,760
Speaker 5: kind of like a middleweight version of Marob, or like

479
00:22:34,800 --> 00:22:38,399
Speaker 5: a middleweight version of Kane Velasquez. Once he starts the

480
00:22:38,520 --> 00:22:42,520
Speaker 5: process of the takedowns, you're kind of already screwed, and Koppolov,

481
00:22:42,560 --> 00:22:44,600
Speaker 5: as he gets up tends to give it back. That's

482
00:22:44,640 --> 00:22:48,360
Speaker 5: not gonna work. So it's it's the kind of thing where, yes,

483
00:22:48,400 --> 00:22:51,480
Speaker 5: they're gonna be at range. Yes, Kopolov has the advantage

484
00:22:51,520 --> 00:22:54,720
Speaker 5: of distance, but the moment Hernandez is on him, he's

485
00:22:54,760 --> 00:22:57,280
Speaker 5: gonna be stuck to him. So I think Kopolov is

486
00:22:57,320 --> 00:23:00,040
Speaker 5: gonna have very few opportunities to strike for range. So

487
00:23:00,080 --> 00:23:02,760
Speaker 5: the one thing that's very much worth noting in this fight,

488
00:23:03,359 --> 00:23:05,320
Speaker 5: and I think the way it goes bad for Hernandez

489
00:23:05,880 --> 00:23:08,920
Speaker 5: is he's been knocked out to the liver before he

490
00:23:09,400 --> 00:23:12,240
Speaker 5: he's not like nearly as muscular as a guy as

491
00:23:12,320 --> 00:23:17,320
Speaker 5: Morob like a bit thinner over grappler. He tends to

492
00:23:17,359 --> 00:23:20,080
Speaker 5: be strong, but he's doesn't have this like muscular physique.

493
00:23:20,640 --> 00:23:23,400
Speaker 5: And Kappolov has a really nasty bodykick and really good

494
00:23:23,440 --> 00:23:27,600
Speaker 5: boxing where he works the body. So maybe as Hernandez

495
00:23:27,680 --> 00:23:30,520
Speaker 5: is initiating a clinch exchange, you know, Kopolov can hit

496
00:23:30,600 --> 00:23:32,400
Speaker 5: him with some short shots to the body and hurt him,

497
00:23:32,440 --> 00:23:35,720
Speaker 5: maybe get some separation. But as I said, once Hernandez

498
00:23:35,800 --> 00:23:38,399
Speaker 5: sort of initiates the process of the grappling here, I

499
00:23:38,440 --> 00:23:40,840
Speaker 5: think he's gonna drown coppole Off. I like Hernandez the

500
00:23:40,840 --> 00:23:43,040
Speaker 5: one in round two or round three. Not the best

501
00:23:43,080 --> 00:23:45,959
Speaker 5: odds on those. Typically you see like five to one,

502
00:23:46,080 --> 00:23:48,400
Speaker 5: ten to one at worst on round two and round

503
00:23:48,440 --> 00:23:51,280
Speaker 5: three for Hernandez, it's like plus four to fifty and

504
00:23:51,359 --> 00:23:53,720
Speaker 5: plus six fifty plus seven to fifty. The book stort

505
00:23:53,760 --> 00:23:55,919
Speaker 5: of know what's up with this fight. I think they

506
00:23:55,960 --> 00:23:58,120
Speaker 5: also expect Hernandez to finish the fight in the second

507
00:23:58,200 --> 00:23:59,879
Speaker 5: or third round. If he does do it, I was

508
00:24:00,000 --> 00:24:02,960
Speaker 5: I don't mind his submission prop as well. Plus two

509
00:24:03,040 --> 00:24:05,680
Speaker 5: hundred out there projected that at plus one seventy. But

510
00:24:05,880 --> 00:24:08,960
Speaker 5: as Billy mentioned, Hernandez can finish you in multiple ways

511
00:24:09,000 --> 00:24:10,680
Speaker 5: on the ground. You know he could get the ground

512
00:24:10,680 --> 00:24:15,080
Speaker 5: of prown tko or hunt for the submission. So uh yeah,

513
00:24:15,160 --> 00:24:17,480
Speaker 5: yeah to me, Hernandez pre fight, I parlayed him with

514
00:24:17,560 --> 00:24:20,440
Speaker 5: Morob I projected his money line closer to minus two seventy.

515
00:24:20,480 --> 00:24:22,760
Speaker 5: If you're gonna bet Copolov, I would bet he's inside

516
00:24:22,760 --> 00:24:24,960
Speaker 5: the distance prop or I'd probably bet his round one props.

517
00:24:24,960 --> 00:24:27,960
Speaker 5: I think that's his likelier win condition. Once Hernandez starts

518
00:24:28,000 --> 00:24:31,200
Speaker 5: grappling him, he's gonna gas out. He's he's gassed out

519
00:24:31,240 --> 00:24:33,560
Speaker 5: from grappling in the past. He has good takedown defense

520
00:24:33,640 --> 00:24:35,639
Speaker 5: historically in the USC, I believe it's above ninety percent.

521
00:24:35,800 --> 00:24:38,160
Speaker 5: But he hasn't faced the guy who's going to wrestle

522
00:24:38,200 --> 00:24:40,160
Speaker 5: like Hernandez is. So this is this is a fun fight,

523
00:24:40,240 --> 00:24:42,600
Speaker 5: good first ride of the main card, and to a degree,

524
00:24:42,640 --> 00:24:44,800
Speaker 5: a similar dynamic as marobins the hudo. But I think

525
00:24:44,880 --> 00:24:47,440
Speaker 5: copylov is Billy mentioned why he's betting a much higher

526
00:24:47,480 --> 00:24:51,240
Speaker 5: finishing upside than see hudo does against rob and just you.

527
00:24:51,240 --> 00:24:53,399
Speaker 4: Know, a bunch sharper striker than so who I think

528
00:24:54,160 --> 00:24:56,520
Speaker 4: so houto verst Deballis Peeley is kind of like, yeah,

529
00:24:56,560 --> 00:24:58,600
Speaker 4: he might win the striking, probably not. The rest of

530
00:24:58,760 --> 00:25:00,520
Speaker 4: this one is like one guy is on most certainly

531
00:25:00,560 --> 00:25:02,120
Speaker 4: going to win the striking, one almost.

532
00:25:01,800 --> 00:25:04,320
Speaker 5: Striking for fifteen minutes. Kopolov is the clear side one

533
00:25:04,359 --> 00:25:06,840
Speaker 5: hundred percent, where from Robinson, who does strike for fifteen minutes,

534
00:25:06,880 --> 00:25:09,680
Speaker 5: I'm still not sure. Yeah, absolutely there's a clear advantage

535
00:25:09,680 --> 00:25:11,840
Speaker 5: for Kopolov. I just I don't know how much time

536
00:25:11,880 --> 00:25:13,479
Speaker 5: he's going to get to strike, but yeah, I think

537
00:25:13,520 --> 00:25:15,280
Speaker 5: it's inside the distance props if you like him, or

538
00:25:15,560 --> 00:25:16,320
Speaker 5: certainly the way to go.

539
00:25:17,280 --> 00:25:18,920
Speaker 4: Only other thing I wanted to mention on that this

540
00:25:19,040 --> 00:25:21,200
Speaker 4: is the first southpaw that Hernandez will have fought in

541
00:25:21,200 --> 00:25:23,640
Speaker 4: the UFC, which I think is a slight I don't

542
00:25:23,640 --> 00:25:24,920
Speaker 4: know how much to put in that. We don't know,

543
00:25:25,000 --> 00:25:26,840
Speaker 4: you know, how many lefties these guys are training with,

544
00:25:27,000 --> 00:25:30,199
Speaker 4: but Copylov fights righties all the time. For Hernandez, it's

545
00:25:30,240 --> 00:25:33,040
Speaker 4: the first time, and Copylov is like super left handed,

546
00:25:33,119 --> 00:25:34,719
Speaker 4: if that makes sense to people have done any kind

547
00:25:34,720 --> 00:25:37,080
Speaker 4: of striking arts. He's always circling into the right, He's

548
00:25:37,080 --> 00:25:39,320
Speaker 4: always thrown calf picks with his lead leg and then

549
00:25:39,400 --> 00:25:42,399
Speaker 4: powerkicks with his back laid like he's he's just as

550
00:25:42,520 --> 00:25:44,040
Speaker 4: left handed as you can be. And I'm not doing

551
00:25:44,040 --> 00:25:46,639
Speaker 4: a great job describing that. But but final note on that,

552
00:25:46,920 --> 00:25:49,720
Speaker 4: somebody once told me that in any Anthony Hernandez fight,

553
00:25:50,160 --> 00:25:52,320
Speaker 4: the smart bet is the underdog, and that person with

554
00:25:52,359 --> 00:25:55,480
Speaker 4: Sean Zuerlo, like three Anthony Hernandez fights ago before we

555
00:25:55,600 --> 00:25:57,640
Speaker 4: realized that Hernandez was a lot better than he looked

556
00:25:57,680 --> 00:25:59,960
Speaker 4: in his in his opening few UFC appearing.

557
00:26:00,880 --> 00:26:03,960
Speaker 5: Yeah, there's there's some Hernandez fights where you know, in hindsight,

558
00:26:04,160 --> 00:26:06,680
Speaker 5: I probably would not have bet against them, you know,

559
00:26:06,760 --> 00:26:08,240
Speaker 5: now that I've seen more of his skill set, seen

560
00:26:08,320 --> 00:26:12,959
Speaker 5: him play out in different fights. He lost to Marcus Perez.

561
00:26:13,000 --> 00:26:14,920
Speaker 5: I mean, that's that's wild. I think I bet Kevin

562
00:26:14,960 --> 00:26:17,119
Speaker 5: Holland against them, and Kevin Holland finished him with the

563
00:26:17,119 --> 00:26:21,240
Speaker 5: body shot in the first round. So you know, Hernandez

564
00:26:21,440 --> 00:26:27,119
Speaker 5: like he's vulnerable. There's there's durability concerns, but if you

565
00:26:27,280 --> 00:26:30,119
Speaker 5: allow him to implement his game plan, he's going to

566
00:26:30,160 --> 00:26:31,680
Speaker 5: tire you out to the point where he's going to

567
00:26:31,720 --> 00:26:36,320
Speaker 5: make you an effective anyways, So very interesting fighter. Because

568
00:26:36,480 --> 00:26:38,320
Speaker 5: I said, it's like the Morob game plan with less

569
00:26:38,359 --> 00:26:41,160
Speaker 5: their ability, and that tends to lead to some funny outcomes.

570
00:26:42,800 --> 00:26:45,200
Speaker 3: I'm a fan of the disagreement. You guys rarely disagree

571
00:26:45,760 --> 00:26:47,160
Speaker 3: and there's healthy back and forth.

572
00:26:47,280 --> 00:26:50,639
Speaker 1: And I can tell with more data from previous fights,

573
00:26:50,920 --> 00:26:51,960
Speaker 1: you guys have more takes.

574
00:26:52,040 --> 00:26:53,000
Speaker 3: That's what I've gathered as well.

575
00:26:53,040 --> 00:26:54,840
Speaker 1: And Zerolla, you did say that last week when we

576
00:26:54,880 --> 00:26:56,679
Speaker 1: did the episode, you were like, well, you know, it's

577
00:26:56,680 --> 00:26:58,760
Speaker 1: still a feeling. Oh process, got to see what these

578
00:26:58,800 --> 00:27:01,440
Speaker 1: guys look like, and it's a good card this week.

579
00:27:02,080 --> 00:27:04,040
Speaker 5: You know, I've really been thinking about these fights since

580
00:27:04,119 --> 00:27:06,400
Speaker 5: last Sunday. Normally, normally I'm like getting into the fights

581
00:27:06,480 --> 00:27:08,640
Speaker 5: like Wednesday. You know, especially for these fight night cards,

582
00:27:08,680 --> 00:27:10,399
Speaker 5: it's it's tough to get into them as much just

583
00:27:10,400 --> 00:27:12,119
Speaker 5: because you're not as familiar with the fighters. There's a

584
00:27:12,119 --> 00:27:13,280
Speaker 5: lot of work you have to do before you can

585
00:27:13,320 --> 00:27:15,800
Speaker 5: even place bets. But these fights, I have a lot

586
00:27:15,840 --> 00:27:17,640
Speaker 5: of data, a lot of notes on all of them.

587
00:27:18,640 --> 00:27:20,439
Speaker 5: Don't need to go back and do as much research

588
00:27:20,560 --> 00:27:22,679
Speaker 5: since I'm confident with my reads on a lot of them.

589
00:27:22,760 --> 00:27:25,720
Speaker 5: But yeah, it's like bets I've been looking at since

590
00:27:25,800 --> 00:27:28,359
Speaker 5: literally Sunday, and I've been planning this card out so

591
00:27:28,400 --> 00:27:30,040
Speaker 5: it's It's been a fun one to think about, and

592
00:27:30,119 --> 00:27:31,919
Speaker 5: I'm really excited for this card. The UFC has put

593
00:27:31,960 --> 00:27:33,399
Speaker 5: out a lot of crap cards lately. This is a

594
00:27:33,440 --> 00:27:37,760
Speaker 5: pretty good one. Another take there, it is all right,

595
00:27:37,880 --> 00:27:39,439
Speaker 5: let's work well, hot take it all.

596
00:27:41,720 --> 00:27:43,680
Speaker 3: It's a take. It's adding to the plate of takes.

597
00:27:43,760 --> 00:27:44,119
Speaker 3: I like it.

598
00:27:44,680 --> 00:27:46,760
Speaker 1: Let's do props quickly and then we'll do best bets

599
00:27:46,760 --> 00:27:48,240
Speaker 1: because we went a little long in there on the

600
00:27:48,280 --> 00:27:50,720
Speaker 1: previous discussion, So go ahead for all.

601
00:27:51,320 --> 00:27:53,840
Speaker 5: Yeah, Jeff Neil, I and Gary another fight people were

602
00:27:53,880 --> 00:27:55,760
Speaker 5: really looking forward to. I put in my write up

603
00:27:56,000 --> 00:27:58,040
Speaker 5: that Jeff Neil is a popular underdog bet this week

604
00:27:58,240 --> 00:28:01,159
Speaker 5: because he has the power to chin his opponents, and

605
00:28:01,400 --> 00:28:03,800
Speaker 5: everybody wants to see Ian Gary get hint. I mean,

606
00:28:03,880 --> 00:28:06,040
Speaker 5: this guy's become He's fighting on the same card as

607
00:28:06,080 --> 00:28:09,000
Speaker 5: Henry Shudo, and he's somehow more Cringuarthy. It's very impressive.

608
00:28:10,000 --> 00:28:13,280
Speaker 5: So I do think Gary is gonna win a boring

609
00:28:13,359 --> 00:28:15,879
Speaker 5: decision here. I think people are gonna be frustrated. I

610
00:28:15,920 --> 00:28:18,080
Speaker 5: think Neil has the power to knock him out. I

611
00:28:18,160 --> 00:28:19,920
Speaker 5: don't know if he has the ability to get inside

612
00:28:19,920 --> 00:28:23,879
Speaker 5: of Gary's range and close the show. Gary's last knockout

613
00:28:23,920 --> 00:28:27,240
Speaker 5: came in the APAX against Descente Luke. He tends to

614
00:28:27,320 --> 00:28:30,240
Speaker 5: have a bit more difficulty chasing opponents who her mobile

615
00:28:30,560 --> 00:28:32,560
Speaker 5: than he does brawling with opponents who are going to

616
00:28:32,600 --> 00:28:33,800
Speaker 5: stand in front of it. You could be a guy

617
00:28:33,880 --> 00:28:36,280
Speaker 5: like Santiago Ponzanabio who's gonna fight in a phone booth

618
00:28:36,280 --> 00:28:38,840
Speaker 5: with you, not as much success against the guy like

619
00:28:38,880 --> 00:28:41,760
Speaker 5: wander Boy Thompson who's gonna move laterally around the cage

620
00:28:41,760 --> 00:28:43,680
Speaker 5: and frustrate you and kick you a bunch. That is

621
00:28:43,760 --> 00:28:46,520
Speaker 5: more so what Ian Gary is gonna do here. Gary

622
00:28:46,640 --> 00:28:48,000
Speaker 5: also has the grappling.

623
00:28:47,680 --> 00:28:49,000
Speaker 4: Upside in the spight, I'd say as well.

624
00:28:49,040 --> 00:28:51,800
Speaker 5: I doubt he hits takedowns, But of the two, if

625
00:28:51,880 --> 00:28:54,200
Speaker 5: one is gonna hit a takedown and land on top,

626
00:28:54,560 --> 00:28:57,160
Speaker 5: it's likelier to be Ian Gary. I just expect a

627
00:28:57,160 --> 00:29:00,400
Speaker 5: fifteen minute striking fight. Gary probably edging ahead on volume,

628
00:29:00,440 --> 00:29:03,760
Speaker 5: mostly with the kicks, Neil potentially landing the harder punches.

629
00:29:04,120 --> 00:29:06,480
Speaker 5: Maybe he lands a high kick as well. Don't necessarily

630
00:29:06,520 --> 00:29:09,120
Speaker 5: see that against the taller fighter. But you know, the

631
00:29:09,160 --> 00:29:12,040
Speaker 5: one concern with Gary's profile is the durability. He's undefeated.

632
00:29:12,440 --> 00:29:15,160
Speaker 5: We've seen him wobble badly by son Kanog, seen him

633
00:29:15,160 --> 00:29:18,480
Speaker 5: wobbled at other fights. I think he's more well rounded

634
00:29:18,520 --> 00:29:20,200
Speaker 5: than people give him credit for. You go back to

635
00:29:20,280 --> 00:29:22,760
Speaker 5: his Cage Warriors career, He's mostly beating people with grappling.

636
00:29:23,000 --> 00:29:24,880
Speaker 5: I think his striking has gotten so much better. And

637
00:29:25,520 --> 00:29:27,760
Speaker 5: you know, you look at the reach discrepancy, Neil actually

638
00:29:27,800 --> 00:29:28,800
Speaker 5: has a reach advantage.

639
00:29:28,920 --> 00:29:30,120
Speaker 3: It's not true.

640
00:29:30,160 --> 00:29:32,760
Speaker 5: In this fight, Gary has much longer legs and is

641
00:29:32,800 --> 00:29:34,600
Speaker 5: going to be kicking him from across the octagon, so

642
00:29:34,680 --> 00:29:37,680
Speaker 5: it's up to Neil to close the distance to create

643
00:29:37,760 --> 00:29:40,840
Speaker 5: pocket exchanges. I potentially knock him out. I think Gary's

644
00:29:40,840 --> 00:29:42,200
Speaker 5: going to be running away from him for most of

645
00:29:42,200 --> 00:29:43,719
Speaker 5: the fights, so I fight to go to a decision

646
00:29:43,760 --> 00:29:46,000
Speaker 5: and even money like that too, about minus one ten

647
00:29:46,400 --> 00:29:47,680
Speaker 5: and then I just want to briefly touch on the

648
00:29:47,760 --> 00:29:51,080
Speaker 5: comine event. Robert Whitaker and Palo Costa tough one to read,

649
00:29:51,200 --> 00:29:53,080
Speaker 5: really tough one to read. Costa has one win in

650
00:29:53,080 --> 00:29:56,840
Speaker 5: the past four years. This is the post you saw

651
00:29:56,920 --> 00:29:59,360
Speaker 5: to era of the UFC, though, and if I had

652
00:29:59,400 --> 00:30:02,000
Speaker 5: to pinpoint of fighter, he was most likely to juice

653
00:30:02,080 --> 00:30:05,360
Speaker 5: up follow COSTI so don't really know what to expect.

654
00:30:05,360 --> 00:30:07,680
Speaker 5: You're from Costa a year and a half removed from

655
00:30:07,720 --> 00:30:10,000
Speaker 5: his last acting on appearance. He didn't look good in

656
00:30:10,080 --> 00:30:13,400
Speaker 5: that fight versus Lugrockold. That card, though, also took place

657
00:30:13,440 --> 00:30:15,479
Speaker 5: in Salt Lake City. We'll talk about another Salt Lake

658
00:30:15,520 --> 00:30:19,080
Speaker 5: City fighter in a minute, but everybody on those Salt

659
00:30:19,160 --> 00:30:22,240
Speaker 5: Lake City cards have looked terrible, So don't really know

660
00:30:22,320 --> 00:30:25,280
Speaker 5: how to measure Palocasta's level. I do know that Robert

661
00:30:25,320 --> 00:30:28,840
Speaker 5: Whittaker's athleticism is declining, his durability is declining. After that

662
00:30:28,920 --> 00:30:31,560
Speaker 5: recent performance against Strigus y Pless, he did not look

663
00:30:31,920 --> 00:30:34,240
Speaker 5: nearly as good as he used to. I actually thought

664
00:30:34,240 --> 00:30:37,760
Speaker 5: he looked a little lackluster in his performance over Marvin Vittoris.

665
00:30:37,840 --> 00:30:40,840
Speaker 5: So I'm kind of leaning cost to Ko. But if

666
00:30:40,840 --> 00:30:42,960
Speaker 5: you're good about the Wittkers side'd taken by decision, cost

667
00:30:43,000 --> 00:30:45,000
Speaker 5: A very durable. I'd expect them to go the full

668
00:30:45,080 --> 00:30:48,800
Speaker 5: fifteen minutes if Whitaker's could win it. So com in

669
00:30:48,880 --> 00:30:50,880
Speaker 5: we're thinking about a bit more manned a passing on

670
00:30:50,920 --> 00:30:54,080
Speaker 5: the fight, but definitely an intriguing matchup and curious to

671
00:30:54,120 --> 00:30:56,160
Speaker 5: see how Paulo Costa looks physically the gage.

672
00:30:57,360 --> 00:31:00,200
Speaker 1: Okay, Billy, how about yourself prop that jumps out out

673
00:31:00,280 --> 00:31:01,120
Speaker 1: when you look at the board.

674
00:31:02,240 --> 00:31:03,920
Speaker 4: He didn't know he was doing it, but Sean teed

675
00:31:03,960 --> 00:31:07,000
Speaker 4: me up wonderfully with mentioning the secret juice in the

676
00:31:07,280 --> 00:31:10,560
Speaker 4: steroid issue. Because I am taking Danny Barlow by knockout

677
00:31:10,560 --> 00:31:13,360
Speaker 4: at plus one sixty, he's fighting Josh Quinlan. So Josh

678
00:31:13,440 --> 00:31:15,640
Speaker 4: Quinlan gets on the Contender series, knocks the guy out.

679
00:31:16,160 --> 00:31:19,000
Speaker 4: It's overturned because Josh Quinlan gets tested for steroids. They

680
00:31:19,080 --> 00:31:21,560
Speaker 4: let him in the UFC anyway, who cares, I guess whatever.

681
00:31:22,360 --> 00:31:25,160
Speaker 4: His first fight in the UFC, he tests positive, but

682
00:31:25,240 --> 00:31:27,480
Speaker 4: like not enough to get suspended, and all they do

683
00:31:27,640 --> 00:31:30,640
Speaker 4: is move the fight back a week, which, like, you

684
00:31:30,920 --> 00:31:34,000
Speaker 4: you know, he tested positive. He just tested positive last week,

685
00:31:34,240 --> 00:31:35,640
Speaker 4: and they're like, yeah, but it'll be fine. In a week,

686
00:31:35,680 --> 00:31:37,600
Speaker 4: it'll be out of his system. So that was weird.

687
00:31:37,800 --> 00:31:42,160
Speaker 4: Who came up with another knock right, yeah whatever, It's

688
00:31:42,200 --> 00:31:44,560
Speaker 4: a week later, he's fine, So gets another knockout in

689
00:31:44,600 --> 00:31:47,320
Speaker 4: that fight against Jason White, who like isn't UFC level.

690
00:31:48,000 --> 00:31:51,440
Speaker 4: Then his next fight loses a bad decision, doesn't test

691
00:31:51,480 --> 00:31:54,960
Speaker 4: positive for anything. Which seems correlated at the very least

692
00:31:55,400 --> 00:31:57,160
Speaker 4: that you know, the one time he doesn't have anything

693
00:31:57,240 --> 00:31:59,840
Speaker 4: in a system, he loses, and now he's fighting Danny

694
00:31:59,840 --> 00:32:02,480
Speaker 4: bar Another guy came in off the Contender Series. Danny

695
00:32:02,520 --> 00:32:05,320
Speaker 4: Barlow's nickname and this is all one word is left

696
00:32:05,320 --> 00:32:08,320
Speaker 4: hand to God with the two number two with the

697
00:32:08,440 --> 00:32:11,080
Speaker 4: number two. Yeah right yeah, And all he does is

698
00:32:11,160 --> 00:32:13,960
Speaker 4: knock people out. Huge Knockout on the Contender Series is

699
00:32:14,000 --> 00:32:18,080
Speaker 4: a slight underdog. Uh, the nickname kind of says it all.

700
00:32:18,120 --> 00:32:20,400
Speaker 4: He's just out there swinging them things and if he's

701
00:32:20,440 --> 00:32:22,320
Speaker 4: gonna win, that's how he's gonna do it. So basically

702
00:32:22,400 --> 00:32:26,080
Speaker 4: you're getting a guy who's a moderate favorite, but minus

703
00:32:26,120 --> 00:32:27,920
Speaker 4: two hundred, you're getting HM at plus one sixty if

704
00:32:27,920 --> 00:32:30,360
Speaker 4: you play his knockout adds pretty simple play form in.

705
00:32:30,400 --> 00:32:33,880
Speaker 5: There also a seven inch reach advantage, huge striker. I

706
00:32:34,000 --> 00:32:36,719
Speaker 5: really like Danny Barlow. I have to get a read

707
00:32:36,760 --> 00:32:39,000
Speaker 5: on Contender Series guys a lot of time. He just

708
00:32:39,120 --> 00:32:41,760
Speaker 5: moves kind of cool, like, he's very patient, he faints

709
00:32:41,760 --> 00:32:45,080
Speaker 5: a lot. He's a southpaw. He's really long, so you

710
00:32:45,160 --> 00:32:47,600
Speaker 5: could sort of see him like as he's marching opponents down,

711
00:32:47,760 --> 00:32:50,600
Speaker 5: like fainting and breaking them down, and then when he

712
00:32:50,680 --> 00:32:52,360
Speaker 5: lets the stuff go, he can hit you for so

713
00:32:52,440 --> 00:32:55,000
Speaker 5: far away. So be Yeah, Danny Barlow, fun fighter. Want

714
00:32:55,040 --> 00:32:57,239
Speaker 5: to keep an eye on also worth a live bet

715
00:32:57,400 --> 00:33:00,760
Speaker 5: after round one. We've consistently seen Josh Quaan fade after

716
00:33:00,800 --> 00:33:03,600
Speaker 5: the first round. Quinlan may even have grappling success in

717
00:33:03,640 --> 00:33:05,760
Speaker 5: the first round, but I think Barlow is gonna rally.

718
00:33:05,880 --> 00:33:08,480
Speaker 5: So yeah, if you got a better price on Barlow alive,

719
00:33:08,760 --> 00:33:09,760
Speaker 5: certainly take that too.

720
00:33:11,440 --> 00:33:11,840
Speaker 3: All right?

721
00:33:12,000 --> 00:33:15,360
Speaker 1: And with all that, do we have best bets because

722
00:33:15,360 --> 00:33:16,920
Speaker 1: it sounds like you have a lot of them and

723
00:33:17,040 --> 00:33:20,360
Speaker 1: more more like best best takes Zabrillo.

724
00:33:21,200 --> 00:33:22,400
Speaker 3: Yeah, else, I.

725
00:33:22,400 --> 00:33:24,920
Speaker 5: Guess it's more of a take compared to you know,

726
00:33:25,280 --> 00:33:27,160
Speaker 5: our action at work staff this week. I feel like

727
00:33:27,240 --> 00:33:31,760
Speaker 5: I'm need only one on Marcos Hegeri Delima against Justin Tafa.

728
00:33:31,760 --> 00:33:33,880
Speaker 5: I feel like the entire world is on Justin Tava.

729
00:33:33,960 --> 00:33:36,200
Speaker 5: Here the way I handicap the fights, the way I

730
00:33:36,280 --> 00:33:39,400
Speaker 5: build out the data for the projections. Justin Tafa Roman

731
00:33:39,480 --> 00:33:42,920
Speaker 5: Kopolov the two most popular underdog selections this week, public

732
00:33:43,000 --> 00:33:45,800
Speaker 5: picking them at north of sixty percent in fights where

733
00:33:45,800 --> 00:33:48,280
Speaker 5: they're underdogs. So based on the way I handicap the

734
00:33:48,320 --> 00:33:53,360
Speaker 5: way Crew projections Kopolov Tafa extremely public underdogs this week.

735
00:33:55,440 --> 00:33:58,280
Speaker 5: Justin Tafa has eight fights in the UFC. He's had

736
00:33:58,360 --> 00:34:01,120
Speaker 5: two takedown at times against him. This guy's a white

737
00:34:01,160 --> 00:34:03,440
Speaker 5: belt on the ground. I think there's a chance Justin

738
00:34:03,480 --> 00:34:06,200
Speaker 5: Tafa is the worst grappler in the UFC period. I

739
00:34:06,240 --> 00:34:07,880
Speaker 5: think there's a chance he's the worst grappler in the

740
00:34:08,000 --> 00:34:11,279
Speaker 5: UFC since like the initial days of the UFC, since

741
00:34:11,360 --> 00:34:15,439
Speaker 5: UFC one, the only two guys who tried to even

742
00:34:15,600 --> 00:34:18,600
Speaker 5: attempt to take down against him Carlos Felipe, who beat

743
00:34:18,640 --> 00:34:24,200
Speaker 5: him by decision controversial decision, and then Harry Huntstarker, who

744
00:34:24,239 --> 00:34:26,360
Speaker 5: was already concussed and had no business even being in

745
00:34:26,360 --> 00:34:29,239
Speaker 5: the UFC to begin with. Tafa's wins have come over

746
00:34:29,560 --> 00:34:32,520
Speaker 5: bottom of the barrel UFC competition all guys who have

747
00:34:32,600 --> 00:34:35,759
Speaker 5: been cut. Marcos Cigeria de Lima has more fights in

748
00:34:35,840 --> 00:34:39,200
Speaker 5: the UFC than Justin Tafa has career fights now. I

749
00:34:39,239 --> 00:34:42,080
Speaker 5: talked about the age differntial earlier with Volcanta Poria eight years.

750
00:34:42,320 --> 00:34:44,359
Speaker 5: That exists in this fight as well. It's much less

751
00:34:44,400 --> 00:34:47,640
Speaker 5: concerning in the heavier weight classes than that is in

752
00:34:47,719 --> 00:34:51,879
Speaker 5: the lighter weight classes. Power matters much more than speed

753
00:34:52,000 --> 00:34:54,440
Speaker 5: in the heavier weight classes. But I think particularly here,

754
00:34:55,080 --> 00:34:56,960
Speaker 5: as long as the Lima, who's well trained, fights an

755
00:34:56,960 --> 00:34:58,879
Speaker 5: American top team, he will stick to a game plan.

756
00:34:59,040 --> 00:35:00,640
Speaker 5: As long as he doesn't get knock down on the

757
00:35:00,680 --> 00:35:03,400
Speaker 5: feet in the first like ten seconds, he's going to

758
00:35:03,440 --> 00:35:05,640
Speaker 5: shoot a takedown. He's going to get tough A down,

759
00:35:05,960 --> 00:35:08,040
Speaker 5: and he's going to make him look like an absolute

760
00:35:08,160 --> 00:35:11,080
Speaker 5: fool on the mat. So Marcos Sergeria de Lima minus

761
00:35:11,120 --> 00:35:14,359
Speaker 5: one forty, I really like his submission prop at plus

762
00:35:14,440 --> 00:35:17,279
Speaker 5: six hundred as well. If he lands takedowns here, he's

763
00:35:17,280 --> 00:35:19,399
Speaker 5: gonna need one to finish it. I don't think Justin

764
00:35:19,480 --> 00:35:22,239
Speaker 5: Taffa has anything on the ground. The one thing I'd

765
00:35:22,280 --> 00:35:24,959
Speaker 5: be concerned about is the Lima is very good leg kicks,

766
00:35:25,000 --> 00:35:27,400
Speaker 5: and he likes to strike a little bit too much sometimes,

767
00:35:27,520 --> 00:35:30,120
Speaker 5: So if he's trading leg kicks with another guy who

768
00:35:30,160 --> 00:35:32,759
Speaker 5: could absolutely bobbing the legs two and who also has

769
00:35:32,840 --> 00:35:35,080
Speaker 5: much better hands, I don't think it's necessarily gonna go

770
00:35:35,160 --> 00:35:37,759
Speaker 5: well for him. But he does have upside here to me,

771
00:35:38,000 --> 00:35:39,680
Speaker 5: not only to win the fight with one takedown, but

772
00:35:39,800 --> 00:35:42,480
Speaker 5: to potentially control the fight with takedowns in each round

773
00:35:42,719 --> 00:35:46,120
Speaker 5: and win a very clear decision. So Marcos Sergerio Delma

774
00:35:46,200 --> 00:35:48,640
Speaker 5: minus won forty. A bit concerned about the cardio duratability,

775
00:35:48,960 --> 00:35:52,640
Speaker 5: but the grappling upside. I mean if he if he grapples,

776
00:35:52,680 --> 00:35:54,840
Speaker 5: I literally think he's gonna look minus nine hundred. So

777
00:35:56,120 --> 00:35:58,440
Speaker 5: Virgeria Delma up to about minus one sixty pre fight,

778
00:35:58,760 --> 00:35:59,680
Speaker 5: I think is a fine preath.

779
00:36:00,480 --> 00:36:02,600
Speaker 3: All right, Billy, take us home. This is a luck

780
00:36:02,719 --> 00:36:05,160
Speaker 3: ratings right up by you.

781
00:36:05,640 --> 00:36:08,640
Speaker 1: And the question now, of course, is the numbers moved

782
00:36:08,760 --> 00:36:12,000
Speaker 1: right on Maverick now to minus two hundred, So give

783
00:36:12,040 --> 00:36:12,680
Speaker 1: us your take on that.

784
00:36:14,360 --> 00:36:15,879
Speaker 4: Yeah, you know I said it earlier in the week,

785
00:36:15,920 --> 00:36:18,400
Speaker 4: and our editor Dan stop actually pointing this out to me.

786
00:36:18,480 --> 00:36:20,840
Speaker 4: He messages me like, Monday morning, what am I missing

787
00:36:20,920 --> 00:36:24,160
Speaker 4: in random Maverick Andrea Lee? I will say, you know,

788
00:36:24,200 --> 00:36:26,680
Speaker 4: BETHAMGM has done the best job adjusting that line. If

789
00:36:26,719 --> 00:36:29,240
Speaker 4: you hunt through the market you can get still minus

790
00:36:29,280 --> 00:36:31,600
Speaker 4: one eighty five or so. Yeah, I just don't understand

791
00:36:31,600 --> 00:36:33,680
Speaker 4: why she's not a heavy your favorite. Here we got

792
00:36:33,719 --> 00:36:36,279
Speaker 4: the age gap. She is nine years younger than Andrea Lee.

793
00:36:36,480 --> 00:36:38,680
Speaker 4: This is at one twenty five, so a division where

794
00:36:38,680 --> 00:36:41,520
Speaker 4: that definitely matters. Andrew Lee has lost three fights in

795
00:36:41,560 --> 00:36:45,200
Speaker 4: a row, you know, decent competition. But she's lost three

796
00:36:45,200 --> 00:36:47,920
Speaker 4: fights in a row and she's thirty five. Random. Mavericks'

797
00:36:48,000 --> 00:36:50,719
Speaker 4: only losses are to all like top five fighters in

798
00:36:50,960 --> 00:36:54,440
Speaker 4: various weight classes and Jasmine just sudivisious, Aaron Blanchfield and

799
00:36:54,480 --> 00:36:57,120
Speaker 4: Macy Barber. Never been finished in any of those great

800
00:36:57,160 --> 00:36:59,480
Speaker 4: grappler can do some you know, submissions of her own.

801
00:37:00,000 --> 00:37:04,040
Speaker 4: Andrea Lee not really a finisher. I guess I shouldn't

802
00:37:04,040 --> 00:37:05,759
Speaker 4: say that she has a couple, but you know, not

803
00:37:06,000 --> 00:37:08,960
Speaker 4: extremely dangerous on that. I just don't understand it. It

804
00:37:09,000 --> 00:37:11,359
Speaker 4: feels like Maverick should be like minus three minus three

805
00:37:11,440 --> 00:37:13,840
Speaker 4: fifty here, so nothing crazy. I wouldn't call it my

806
00:37:13,880 --> 00:37:16,239
Speaker 4: best bet. It's kind of just the last one. But

807
00:37:17,000 --> 00:37:18,680
Speaker 4: she should win this one pretty easily. I think she's

808
00:37:18,680 --> 00:37:20,880
Speaker 4: gonna look like a much heavier favorite by the time

809
00:37:20,960 --> 00:37:21,880
Speaker 4: the caage door closes.

810
00:37:22,239 --> 00:37:24,200
Speaker 5: Yeah, I think we're rabbit. I mean, Maverick's twenty six,

811
00:37:24,239 --> 00:37:27,000
Speaker 5: and I think she's underrated because of the quality of

812
00:37:27,040 --> 00:37:29,680
Speaker 5: those two losses to Blenchfield and Barber.

813
00:37:29,640 --> 00:37:32,480
Speaker 4: Like and it was a split to Macy Barber and.

814
00:37:34,000 --> 00:37:38,640
Speaker 5: Destroy Andrey Lee like without question. So I think the

815
00:37:38,800 --> 00:37:42,399
Speaker 5: Jazmin jazz Yu divisious loss maybe like the concern because

816
00:37:42,400 --> 00:37:45,880
Speaker 5: that's a lower level fighter. But Jasmine can laying takedowns

817
00:37:45,920 --> 00:37:47,640
Speaker 5: and stay on top of you, Andrea Leed is not

818
00:37:47,680 --> 00:37:50,320
Speaker 5: of top control. So of these two, I think Maverick

819
00:37:50,440 --> 00:37:53,600
Speaker 5: is much likelier to hold top position for like extended

820
00:37:53,640 --> 00:37:56,600
Speaker 5: stretches and not get a ten eight round because I

821
00:37:56,640 --> 00:37:58,040
Speaker 5: don't think either of them are going to do enough

822
00:37:58,080 --> 00:38:00,520
Speaker 5: to get a ten eight, but likely to secure you know,

823
00:38:00,760 --> 00:38:03,680
Speaker 5: cleaner rounds, where Lee's probably her upside is a close

824
00:38:03,719 --> 00:38:06,720
Speaker 5: decision win split decision wins, So yeah, I kind of agree.

825
00:38:07,000 --> 00:38:09,160
Speaker 5: I think Maverick a fairly clear side, probably should be

826
00:38:09,160 --> 00:38:09,800
Speaker 5: a bigger favorite.

827
00:38:11,640 --> 00:38:12,759
Speaker 3: Okay, I think that's it.

828
00:38:13,400 --> 00:38:16,120
Speaker 1: That was a longer episode, but a really good stuff

829
00:38:16,120 --> 00:38:18,520
Speaker 1: from both of you. That was a good breakdown. It's

830
00:38:18,560 --> 00:38:21,000
Speaker 1: one of those episodes where I'm left thinking I can't

831
00:38:21,040 --> 00:38:24,520
Speaker 1: add much here because it's very succinct and the fact

832
00:38:24,600 --> 00:38:25,200
Speaker 1: Gorilla has.

833
00:38:25,080 --> 00:38:26,960
Speaker 3: Been waiting to get some of this office chests and

834
00:38:27,040 --> 00:38:30,920
Speaker 3: Sunday is very rewarding to the audience. I think they

835
00:38:30,960 --> 00:38:33,640
Speaker 3: should be very lucky you can.

836
00:38:33,560 --> 00:38:36,479
Speaker 1: Find Zerillo and Billy Ward in the Action Network app,

837
00:38:36,880 --> 00:38:39,160
Speaker 1: should they add they had a couple of live bet angles.

838
00:38:39,280 --> 00:38:41,680
Speaker 1: If indeed they get there, they might add those during

839
00:38:42,400 --> 00:38:45,440
Speaker 1: the fights on Saturday, so be sure to follow them

840
00:38:45,520 --> 00:38:48,600
Speaker 1: both and download the free award winning Action Network app.

841
00:38:48,680 --> 00:38:51,719
Speaker 1: That is your UFC two ninety eight betting preview here

842
00:38:51,800 --> 00:38:54,960
Speaker 1: on the Action Network podcast presented by bet MGM for

843
00:38:55,120 --> 00:38:56,760
Speaker 1: Billy and John Brendan Glasheen.

844
00:38:57,120 --> 00:38:58,600
Speaker 3: Thanks for listening and best of luck.

845
00:39:01,920 --> 00:39:06,400
Speaker 1: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or

846
00:39:06,480 --> 00:39:09,239
Speaker 1: someone you care about has a gambling problem, help is

847
00:39:09,280 --> 00:39:12,360
Speaker 1: available twenty four to seven at one eight hundred Gambler