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Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites, presented by DraftKings. The Crown is yours.

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Speaker 1: We are an Action Network podcast. Your Favorite Trio is back.

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Speaker 1: I'm Brandon Kravitz, joined by the sharpest Sharps that money

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Speaker 1: can buy, Stucky and Kendra Middleton. A very exuberant Kendra

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Speaker 1: Middleton after that Jags win last night. On today's episode,

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Speaker 1: We've got our plant the Flag Games for week six,

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Speaker 1: a breakdown of the top storylines, and of course, the

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Speaker 1: main event evans Tuesday primer. What a weekend it was

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Speaker 1: Week five in the books, a little up and down

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Speaker 1: for the crew. The parlay picks the newly named Two

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Speaker 1: Kings and a Queen Parlay went one and two, But

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Speaker 1: we press on to week six. The Jags, of course

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Speaker 1: pull off what looked to be an improbable win. Trevor Lawrence,

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Speaker 1: laying on the ground down by the goal line, pops

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Speaker 1: himself back up, heroic run into the end zone, and

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Speaker 1: they trip their way into victory. I can only imagine

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Speaker 1: what the scene at the Middleton household looked like last

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Speaker 1: night as Trevor Lawrence is bumbling his way into the

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Speaker 1: end zone.

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Speaker 2: I have so many thoughts. I don't even know where

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Speaker 2: to begin.

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Speaker 3: What an emotional roller coaster this was from start to

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Speaker 3: finish for me and my entire hell of pets.

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Speaker 2: I was screaming. I think I was crying.

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Speaker 3: He my dog somehow slept through me screaming at my

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Speaker 3: TV for and like the whole game. Literally, I posted

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Speaker 3: a picture of him just passed out, not a thought

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Speaker 3: in the world as I'm running around losing my mind.

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Speaker 3: I the ups and downs of the Trevor Lawrence experience

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Speaker 3: is going to give me premature gray hair. I'm surprised

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Speaker 3: it has not caused me alcoholism. I don't even know

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Speaker 3: where to start. The delay of game penalties were insane.

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Speaker 3: Devin Lloyd, the turnaround for him is absolutely unbelievable. The

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Speaker 3: fact that they overcame some injuries last night night. What

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Speaker 3: a night from Travis Hunter on both sides of the ball.

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Speaker 3: Just I don't even know where to start. I have

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Speaker 3: so many thoughts. But Trevor Lawrence when he runs looks

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Speaker 3: like a wounded baby deer that was born last Thursday.

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Speaker 3: I swear to God, I have so many thoughts about

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Speaker 3: this game. I don't even I am shook. The refs also,

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Speaker 3: I don't even what are you? What are you guys

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Speaker 3: getting because the Jags come on the Chiefs.

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Speaker 1: The Chiefs had more penalty yards than the Jags did

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Speaker 1: last night, and the Jags won the game. Let's get

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Speaker 1: off the officials, stucky. What was your biggest takeaway from

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Speaker 1: last night?

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Speaker 4: Ten Draugs hold you Jags are gonna win and cover?

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Speaker 4: Uh you weren't. You weren't as confident as I was.

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Speaker 4: This is the Jags Podcast.

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Speaker 5: Yeah.

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Speaker 4: I love the Jacks. I love the Jacks coming to

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Speaker 4: the here. I still love the Jags with my ravens

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Speaker 4: and shambles. I'm now I'm now Jacks fan for the

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Speaker 4: time being, temporary Jacks fan. So it's crazy that if

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Speaker 4: the playoffs ended today, who would have thought that the

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Speaker 4: Jags and Colts matchups in December are going to determine

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Speaker 4: AFC supremacy. But yeah, I thought they're.

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Speaker 2: Gonna get moved to primetime, which is hilarious.

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Speaker 4: Jags, Yeah, Jags are gonna be a primetime da. When's

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Speaker 4: the last time you saw the Jags win on Monday

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Speaker 4: Night football? Don't even know how long of us?

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Speaker 3: Oh my god, it's been like the better part of

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Speaker 3: a decade.

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Speaker 2: It has to be.

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Speaker 3: I know that they talked about it last night, But

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Speaker 3: I don't remember when it was. The last time I

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Speaker 3: saw the Jogs winning primetime was the Chargers game.

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Speaker 2: But I was sad at that games.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, Monday night football. But Devin Lloyd amazing's playing at

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Speaker 4: all pro level. Got to be in the defensive Player

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Speaker 4: of the Year conversation at least as of right.

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Speaker 2: Now for sure.

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Speaker 4: And I thought Trevor Lawrence had the best drive of

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Speaker 4: his career at the end. He made that throw on

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Speaker 4: third down down the sidelines to Thomas was unbelievable. Yeah,

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Speaker 4: I mean Liam Cohen's coaching, the defensive coaching, it's all

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Speaker 4: the special teams have been rocks out all year. That

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Speaker 4: the Jags were great in all three phases. And yeah,

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Speaker 4: they did have some injuries. I I did think the

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Speaker 4: Chiefs offense, like I was like, all right, and I

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Speaker 4: don't I need to see more because the Ravens defense

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Speaker 4: was so banned up. But the Chiefs offense did did

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Speaker 4: look a lot better. I mean, they had like a

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Speaker 4: sixty four percent success rate, which I think was the

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Speaker 4: highest of the year for any team. So there's there's

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Speaker 4: a lot of juice in that Chiefs offense. What especially

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Speaker 4: once they get Rashi Rice back, Butker might be washed.

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Speaker 4: You could argue he's cost.

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Speaker 2: The he is, thank god, he's definitely yeah.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, yeah.

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Speaker 3: That was what led the Jags to be able to

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Speaker 3: get ahead last night, was that he kicked the kick

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Speaker 3: off out.

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Speaker 2: Of bounds and you know what, whatever, screw them.

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Speaker 3: The thing that for me that makes me feel a

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Speaker 3: little bit better is if I don't know if the

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Speaker 3: Bible says like thou shalt not let Breton Strange tush

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Speaker 3: push you or something, because Trevor Lawrence is scared of

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Speaker 3: letting him touch his butt. But had they done the

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Speaker 3: toush push and knock going over the top on that,

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Speaker 3: it would have been a they would have been a

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Speaker 3: you know, two score game for them, Like I just

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Speaker 3: I don't know how learned that last.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, because the strangers right behind him, so you got

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Speaker 4: to do a normal I mean, he was an inch

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Speaker 4: away from getting in, but you just got to do

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Speaker 4: a normal regulars get over it. Yeah, that that almost

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Speaker 4: I'm shocked that they were able to overcome that. Lloyd

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Speaker 4: helped because I stole a possession. But the old Jags,

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Speaker 4: I tweeted this out. The old Jags would have folded

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Speaker 4: when they were down for and they the old Jags

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Speaker 4: I mean I'm talking like at the last couple of years,

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Speaker 4: had no resiliency and once they went down fourteen to nothing,

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Speaker 4: it would have been lights out. But the defense got

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Speaker 4: to stop at the end of the first half, and

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Speaker 4: then a stop to start the second half, which was

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Speaker 4: just massive because the game could have slipped away. And

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Speaker 4: then they stole that possession back to make up for

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Speaker 4: the Lawrence goal line fumble with a goal line pick

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Speaker 4: that Lloyd took ninety nine the other way. So yeah,

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Speaker 4: I think that the Jags are are legit. You're right, Hunter,

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Speaker 4: if you look at the I mean, if you just

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Speaker 4: take pff you look at the five highest graded players

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Speaker 4: of last time as a receiver and Hunter as a

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Speaker 4: d backer in the top five, and he made some

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Speaker 4: great plays on both sides of the ball. So uh yeah,

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Speaker 4: I think that the Jags are legit and they easily

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Speaker 4: could be five and oh if they didn't melt down

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Speaker 4: versus first Jake Browning and undefeated.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, and I believe in the Chiefs. I think the

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Speaker 1: Chiefs are still a good team. But this is what

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Speaker 1: the schedule will do to you. If you're too good

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Speaker 1: for too long. Eventually, the NFL will make it an impossible,

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Speaker 1: treacherous gauntlet for you. The Chiefs no rest for the weary,

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Speaker 1: another primetime game at home against the Detroit Lions.

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Speaker 6: So even if they.

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Speaker 1: Play well like they played well last night, they can

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Speaker 1: play well on Sunday night and they can still lose

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Speaker 1: that one too. And here you are looking at a

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Speaker 1: Chiefs team that right now outside looking in in terms

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Speaker 1: of the playoffs.

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Speaker 4: Three and one score games at their ten and l

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Speaker 4: last year.

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Speaker 6: And that's the thing.

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Speaker 1: Like that exactly, the regression is going to get you.

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Speaker 1: I feel like when we take a closer look at

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Speaker 1: the luck rankings that the Jags are going to be

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Speaker 1: bumped up a little bit based on Devin Lloyd going

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Speaker 1: across the field for a touchdown and uh, some of

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Speaker 1: the turnover worthy plays that Trevor Lawrence had, the weird

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Speaker 1: fall down touchdown he had at the end. There are

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Speaker 1: a lot of things that broke Jacksonville's way in this

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Speaker 1: game in order then to get down, but I get

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Speaker 1: up again.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, I think it was just a back and forth game.

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Speaker 4: I mean, like you could argue the Chiefs fuck that

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Speaker 4: they had an interception on a twenty yard touchdown drive

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Speaker 4: that was because of past interference. The offensiveass interference is questionable.

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Speaker 4: The Jags, you know, fumbled at the one, so I

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Speaker 4: think there was both teams that things go for them

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Speaker 4: and against them. I don't think it was terribly lucky.

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Speaker 4: I mean, that was just one of those games where

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Speaker 4: whoever had the ball last felt like was gonna win.

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Speaker 4: So yeah, obviously a one score win for the Jags,

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Speaker 4: but I don't think it was it was terribly lucky.

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Speaker 4: There are some injuries to note, like, they had some

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Speaker 4: offensive line injuries. Strange got hurt, so there's some things

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Speaker 4: to know.

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Speaker 2: But he came back in.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, Anton Harrison, he was in and out, so we'll see.

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Speaker 3: You're hitting a peak for him though, so hopefully he's okay.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, he's looked, he's looked.

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Speaker 2: No, Trayvon Walker is the story of this game though.

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Speaker 4: Yes, they they couldn't get pressure. You could just tell

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Speaker 4: how much they missed him because they were incapable of

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Speaker 4: generating any pressure naturally, because it's just, hey, you have

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Speaker 4: to worry about Alan, and if you just have to

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Speaker 4: worry about Alan, you know you can slide protection, you

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Speaker 4: can you can help. But if you have Alan and Walker,

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Speaker 4: they become so much more difficul to contain both. But yeah,

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Speaker 4: he was definitely missed, so we'll see. The Seahawks also

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Speaker 4: have a ton of injuries, the main ones to keep

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Speaker 4: an eye on there, which we'll talk about later in

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Speaker 4: the week, or or in the secondary. I mean the

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Speaker 4: Seahawks came into the Bucks game hurt in the secondary

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Speaker 4: and then lost more guys in the secondary and they

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Speaker 4: were down. They were decimated by the end of that game.

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Speaker 4: So definitely there's a lot of injury games this year,

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Speaker 4: a lot of injuries to keep tracking.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, here's my thing with this for our podcast. Jags though.

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Speaker 3: They play Seattle this week at home and then technically

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Speaker 3: I do think that they'll wind up losing the Seattle game.

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Speaker 3: I said that on our Sunday show just because that

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Speaker 3: would be the most Jacksonville Jaguars thing ever to beat

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Speaker 3: the Chiefs in primetime and then turn around and lose

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Speaker 3: to the Seattle Seahawks, just because I've watched this team

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Speaker 3: for long enough.

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Speaker 2: That's the vibe that I get from them.

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Speaker 3: But the issue with continuing to bet them that people

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Speaker 3: need to pay attention to. They don't have another home

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Speaker 3: game I think until November ninth, technically after Seattle, because

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Speaker 3: you can claim the London game as a home game,

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Speaker 3: it might help them that. Obviously they've gone through that

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Speaker 3: schedule before, like the going overseas, YadA YadA.

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Speaker 2: They have like kind of a routine about it at

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Speaker 2: this point. But they have Seattle at.

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Speaker 3: Home, go to London, bye week, two away games, so

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Speaker 3: that's you know, a lot of time not really spent

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Speaker 3: in your home stadium. When you're an undefeated team, it's

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Speaker 3: a long time to not have a home game. So

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Speaker 3: that's the only thing that I would keep in mind

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Speaker 3: if you want to bet on the Jags. I personally

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Speaker 3: am going to stay away from them with Seattle just

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Speaker 3: because it feels like a Seattle spot. And then La

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Speaker 3: obviously they're a good team and it's technically a neutral,

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Speaker 3: neutral game, even though I'm sure there's going to be

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Speaker 3: more Jags fans. But after like they don't have another

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Speaker 3: home game until November ninth, that's a long.

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Speaker 1: Time you have set the cross country travel Jacksonville in

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Speaker 1: the short week. I feel like those two kind of

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Speaker 1: nullify each other. So really even match up, I think

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Speaker 1: this is gonna be a tough one to find a

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Speaker 1: side that we're in love with in this game.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, I'm the injuries to keep an eye on for

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Speaker 4: the We mentioned the jas Ones, but just to throw

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Speaker 4: the names out there for Seattle, I mean, they were

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Speaker 4: without at the end of that game. They were without

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Speaker 4: three starters in the secondary, Witherspoon, Love wool and we're

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Speaker 4: all hurt, and then DeMarcus Lawrence as well. So the

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Speaker 4: Seahawks defense, especially in the back end, is uh. And

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Speaker 4: then you're missing one of your best edge rushers. Definitely,

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Speaker 4: it was a kind of a shell unit by the

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Speaker 4: end of that Bucks game. So that's something to keep

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Speaker 4: an eye on there for the injuries. But yeah, I

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Speaker 4: mean the Jags are they're gonna they're gonna be in

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Speaker 4: the mix for this division in the playoff spot all

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Speaker 4: the way to the end, so you know, and Theirs

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Speaker 4: their schedule when you look at it, it's.

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Speaker 2: You know, it is the gauntlet piece of it, this

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Speaker 2: like until.

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Speaker 4: Like Rams neutral then by that's a tough stretch, but

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Speaker 4: you have then you're Vegas, Texans Chargers at home, Cardinals, Titans, Jets, uh,

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Speaker 4: the Titans again and then the two matchups with the Colts,

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Speaker 4: which as of right now it looks like those two

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Speaker 4: could decide the division.

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Speaker 3: Cowen could pass Gus Bradley in wins as a Jaguars

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Speaker 3: head coach before the season even ends.

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Speaker 6: Or went out for Gus.

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Speaker 2: Well, okay, here's the.

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Speaker 3: Other thing though, Like with Seattle, we can move on

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Speaker 3: from this in a second. The only other thing that

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Speaker 3: I would say we kind of maybe have to consider

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Speaker 3: is what's going on with Kenneth Walker and Charbonnay, Like

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Speaker 3: who is their lead back there? That whole situation confuses

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Speaker 3: me too. But other than that, I'm happy. I'll take

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Speaker 3: the dub. This was the gauntlet pieces of the schedule.

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Speaker 2: I'm dragging off.

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Speaker 1: Yeah we uh yeah, group group Jag off here. I

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Speaker 1: feel like we've you know, we've banked on the Jags

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Speaker 1: and only get caught with your hand in the cookie jar.

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Speaker 1: Maybe take the week off. We did have some injuries

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Speaker 1: this week, as we always do. As Stuck he mentioned,

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Speaker 1: there is a lot there's a lot of little items

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Speaker 1: throughout the league to pay attention to. Amaro Hampton went

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Speaker 1: down with the Chargers. He looks like he's gonna be

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Speaker 1: out multiple weeks. Antonio Gibson with the Patriots has done

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Speaker 1: for the year. I mean those are just some of

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Speaker 1: the little ones. But I think the most impactful in

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Speaker 1: terms of a singular injury, not these clusters that we're

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Speaker 1: talking about. Spencer Schrader of the Colts. The Colts have

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Speaker 1: been dynamite this year and their kicker has been awesome

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Speaker 1: thirteen of fourteen in field goal attempts. He's made all

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Speaker 1: of his extra points. How much stucky would you downgrade

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Speaker 1: Indianapolis without their kicker because we don't know who they're

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Speaker 1: gonna go and pick up off the street.

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Speaker 4: I mean, not at all, but I mean he's still

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Speaker 4: a kicker. We'll see who they get. It's like noteworthy,

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Speaker 4: but at the end of the day, it's still a kicker.

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Speaker 4: And Trader's been good this year, but it's not like

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Speaker 4: he's prime. Justin Tucker has proven it over years and years.

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Speaker 4: My biggest concern in injury wise is the Chargers offensive line,

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Speaker 4: and maybe Miami can't take advantage of it. But the

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Speaker 4: last two weeks against the Giants and Washington, Chargers offense

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Speaker 4: has been completely dysfunctional because they cannot block anybody and

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Speaker 4: they suffered more than you know. Obviously you lose both

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Speaker 4: your tackles, but now your guards have been hurt your back,

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Speaker 4: your one of your your backup tackles was hurt last

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Speaker 4: week that had it that it is now forced to start.

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Speaker 4: Their offensive line is a disaster and it's ruining the

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Speaker 4: entire offense. And now you have no backs. Your top

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Speaker 4: two backs are done. So the Chargers offensive injuries are

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Speaker 4: potentially devastating. Now that's the matchup with the week for me, Like, Okay,

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Speaker 4: you have this Chargers, their backup running backs, you have

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Speaker 4: all these offensive line injuries going up against the Dolphins

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Speaker 4: defense that isn't generating pressure and just gave up two

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Speaker 4: hundred and ten yards to reco daddle and back up

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Speaker 4: offensive lineman on the Panthers. So what gives? I don't know.

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Speaker 4: I know Kendra I think likes the likes the Chargers

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Speaker 4: and that the Dolphins just might be a dead walking

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Speaker 4: But yeah, the that just might derail the Chargers season.

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Speaker 4: Looking long term, if is that offensive line because the

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Speaker 4: last two weeks their offense has just been completely dysfunctional.

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Speaker 6: Yeah, the Dolphins just can't get pressure.

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Speaker 3: No.

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Speaker 2: I was doing some research and it looks like the

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Speaker 2: options for the Colts are gonna be I think Greg's

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Speaker 2: er Lion or Dustin Hopkins because Eddie Periniro got signed

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Speaker 2: obviously by the forty nine ers.

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Speaker 4: Oh, Greg, gregor leg I'll download. I'll downgrade them a

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Speaker 4: touchdown after what I saw with the.

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Speaker 6: This is what I'm saying.

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Speaker 1: I mean, I get that it's a kicker the Colts overall,

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Speaker 1: this isn't just kicking, but overall PFF grade has them

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Speaker 1: as the fifth best special teams unit in the NFL,

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Speaker 1: and everything is working well for them without one of

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Speaker 1: those key components to special teams. It does feel like

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Speaker 1: it's a hit that you don't realize as a hit

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Speaker 1: until you need it. And we'll see who they end

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Speaker 1: up filling that gap with. I could kick, Like no,

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Speaker 1: I mean, I don't know who those filling options would

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Speaker 1: be or how confident I should be.

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Speaker 4: Santas can't kick apparently, I mean, and that they weren't

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Speaker 4: even attempting to do it in the game against the Raiders,

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Speaker 4: like they were just going forward every time on two

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Speaker 4: point conversions, and that was in a blowout, So you

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Speaker 4: would think that like if he was able to kick,

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Speaker 4: they would That would be a perfect time.

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Speaker 2: The MLS season's about to end. Go find go find

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Speaker 2: an MLS.

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Speaker 1: Player, Grab a Golden Boot, but the Dolphins it should be.

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Speaker 1: I mean, the Dolphins catching points at home with the

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Speaker 1: team traveling from the West Coast.

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Speaker 6: Does feel like Okay and the Dolphins.

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Speaker 1: The last time the Dolphins played the Chargers, this is

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Speaker 1: a couple of years ago now, I think it was

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Speaker 1: to his best game of his career, over four hundred

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Speaker 1: yards passing three touchdowns. There's something about this team. Maybe

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Speaker 1: it's the Justin Herbert, same draft class thing that gets

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Speaker 1: them going. But I just can't back Miami because it

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Speaker 1: feels like every time they lose.

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Speaker 6: The bottom's about to fall out.

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Speaker 1: And I hate being on a team that quits on

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Speaker 1: their coach, and it feels like we are moments away

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Speaker 1: from that happening in Miami, especially with the way they

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Speaker 1: they had no business losing that game to Carolina.

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Speaker 2: I want nothing to do with the Dolphins this week.

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Speaker 2: Even though the Chargers are injured.

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Speaker 3: It feels like they're seasons insane and their division's really tough.

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Speaker 3: You cannot and will not get me to back the

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Speaker 3: Dolphins in this spot.

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Speaker 2: I just I can't.

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Speaker 3: I don't know if you guys watched McDaniel's press conference

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Speaker 3: after this game. I don't even in really, Oh my god,

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Speaker 3: the things that.

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Speaker 2: He's saying just don't even make sense.

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Speaker 3: He just he he wants to go be a coordinator somewhere.

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Speaker 2: He's done. I think he's given up.

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Speaker 3: This team with the injuries has and just the team

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Speaker 3: in general, I think has killed this man. He's not

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Speaker 3: been the same since Tua got hurt for the second time.

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Speaker 3: Like I just it's over, it's done, wrap it up.

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Speaker 3: I wouldn't be surprised if this team just goes belly up,

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Speaker 3: regardless of whatever's going on with this Chargers team.

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Speaker 2: Can't do it.

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Speaker 4: Oh, by the way, Colts kicker. Look, the Colts stole

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Speaker 4: the Ravens team once overnight, maybe week ten.

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Speaker 2: Justin Tucker, I mean, he's washed and you cannot bring but.

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Speaker 4: He's better than Greg Zerline.

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Speaker 2: But what if he's in jail by then, I don't know.

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Speaker 4: Know, I'm just throwing it out there. Would be funny

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Speaker 4: if the Colts sent it up.

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Speaker 3: I had that thought too, But I don't think that

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Speaker 3: you can jeopardize the camaraderie that you have in your

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Speaker 3: locker room right now with a guy who has like

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Speaker 3: multiple cases. Like that's just that's not It would be

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Speaker 3: funny and I thought the same thought crossed my mind,

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Speaker 3: just because it's probably an option.

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Speaker 2: But I don't think you can have the.

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Speaker 3: Bad press and all of that the stuff that comes

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Speaker 3: with it and mess up this weird mojo that you've

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Speaker 3: got going on.

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Speaker 1: The cults are vibe right now, Aura, Aura, a little

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Speaker 1: bit of the antydimes.

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Speaker 6: Aura.

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Speaker 1: The Favorites a sponsored by DraftKings and in partnership with DraftKings,

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Speaker 6: The crown is yours.

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Speaker 1: ATS Standings Report, the Lions, Colts, Jags. As we know

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Speaker 1: this is a Jags podcast. We're having a Jag slumber party.

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Speaker 1: Last night, All four and one ats on the season.

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Speaker 1: Last week's Ats demon that we faded was the Eagles

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Speaker 1: that paid off Broncos come back and win and cover

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Speaker 1: and all of that. Does anyone want to stand a

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Speaker 1: post to the teams right now that are cashing tickets

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Speaker 1: left and right. You get the Lions at Kansas City,

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Speaker 1: the Colts at home against Arizona, or the Jaguars at

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Speaker 1: home again the Seattle Seahawks who already sort of dismissed

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Speaker 1: that one, but feel free to save this in your

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Speaker 1: back pocket if it's a point your flag game. But Stucky,

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Speaker 1: are you fading the Lions or the Colts this week?

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Speaker 4: Yeah? I got to dig into the I mean, the

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Speaker 4: Cardinals have a ton of injuries. The Colts are fairly

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Speaker 4: healthy of Alec Pierce, Grover's store who matters to the run,

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Speaker 4: Dye a lot got banged out. Then you have Kenny Moore,

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Speaker 4: He's really important, especially since his backup who they signed

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Speaker 4: also got hurt. So there's some injuries there. I got

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Speaker 4: to figure out where that This line is getting a

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Speaker 4: little too high for me. I mean, but I got

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Speaker 4: figureut where the Cardinals are at mentally, and they have

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Speaker 4: a lot of injuries on both sides of the ball.

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Speaker 4: But like, how do they respond to that game with

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Speaker 4: everything that went down?

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Speaker 6: That was awesome.

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Speaker 1: It's and by the way, the Titans. The Titans meanwhile

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Speaker 1: breakout of solitary confinement.

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Speaker 6: So congrats to the Titans. Bring a spread.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean they had no business copy. They were

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Speaker 4: about to be down twenty eight to six. They don't

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Speaker 4: drive the flukiest wins I've ever seen, but I might

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Speaker 4: fade the Lions if I had to choose with the Chiefs.

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Speaker 4: Like I said, the Chiefs offense, I believe in it

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Speaker 4: after what I saw last week, last week or last night,

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Speaker 4: and then the week before, I had some doubts because

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Speaker 4: they played the Ravens, and the Ravens right now are

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Speaker 4: the worst team in the NFL, and the Lions have

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Speaker 4: what the They have one of the worst strength of

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Speaker 4: victories in the NFL right now. So yeah, they've been winning,

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Speaker 4: but you look back. They beat the Bears, who were

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Speaker 4: without half their starters on defense, and it was in Detroit.

437
00:21:42,280 --> 00:21:43,879
Speaker 4: They beat the Ravens. So I just told you all

438
00:21:43,880 --> 00:21:45,920
Speaker 4: their injury. I mean, look at the Ravens have been

439
00:21:46,520 --> 00:21:49,440
Speaker 4: in their defense over the past few weeks, that the

440
00:21:50,000 --> 00:21:52,520
Speaker 4: most hurt team in the NFL. They beat Joe Flacco

441
00:21:52,600 --> 00:21:54,560
Speaker 4: and the Browns at home, and then they beat then

442
00:21:54,560 --> 00:21:57,760
Speaker 4: they beat Jake Browning who threw basically gifted them the

443
00:21:57,800 --> 00:21:59,760
Speaker 4: game in the first half with four short fields and

444
00:21:59,760 --> 00:22:03,119
Speaker 4: three interceptions and could not hit an open receiver to

445
00:22:03,160 --> 00:22:06,080
Speaker 4: save his life. So yeah, the Lions have won and

446
00:22:06,119 --> 00:22:08,440
Speaker 4: covered four straight. But if you dig a little deeper,

447
00:22:08,480 --> 00:22:12,239
Speaker 4: it's like, Okay, who did it really come against? So

448
00:22:12,440 --> 00:22:13,840
Speaker 4: I do think the chief should be able to move

449
00:22:13,840 --> 00:22:16,280
Speaker 4: the ball at will the Lion's off. It's a lot

450
00:22:16,280 --> 00:22:20,560
Speaker 4: of success here too, but backs against the wall at home,

451
00:22:21,320 --> 00:22:25,840
Speaker 4: I think I might trust the Chiefs here to get

452
00:22:25,840 --> 00:22:26,320
Speaker 4: it done.

453
00:22:26,880 --> 00:22:30,760
Speaker 1: The Lions are a tough team to fade every week.

454
00:22:30,800 --> 00:22:33,600
Speaker 1: Evan Abrams shares the numbers on what Golf and Campbell

455
00:22:33,600 --> 00:22:36,679
Speaker 1: have done over seventy percent against the spread this year.

456
00:22:36,720 --> 00:22:39,960
Speaker 1: They're over eighty percent against the spread. But I think

457
00:22:40,000 --> 00:22:46,160
Speaker 1: stuck He's right. This feels like a by low Kansas

458
00:22:46,160 --> 00:22:52,080
Speaker 1: City Chief spot. When I mean heed detailed it Bears, Ravens, Browns, Bengals.

459
00:22:52,440 --> 00:22:55,120
Speaker 6: Is that really that impressive? And they have.

460
00:22:55,640 --> 00:22:58,560
Speaker 4: You think about all the injuries too on those teams.

461
00:22:58,400 --> 00:23:01,760
Speaker 1: Exactly, So they're a little bit right now. As great

462
00:23:01,800 --> 00:23:03,960
Speaker 1: as they are, this is a week to fade them.

463
00:23:04,160 --> 00:23:06,880
Speaker 1: I'm I think I'm gonna end up on Kansas City.

464
00:23:07,520 --> 00:23:08,520
Speaker 2: That's crazy answer.

465
00:23:09,320 --> 00:23:10,040
Speaker 4: That's the question.

466
00:23:10,680 --> 00:23:13,320
Speaker 2: Here's that that's a great point. My thing is.

467
00:23:14,880 --> 00:23:17,600
Speaker 3: It's hard because it's a short week for the Chiefs,

468
00:23:18,000 --> 00:23:20,400
Speaker 3: but you can almost get me to think I don't

469
00:23:20,480 --> 00:23:22,320
Speaker 3: I can't fait the Colts just because they don't even

470
00:23:22,359 --> 00:23:25,439
Speaker 3: have like a look ahead angle, but the meat of

471
00:23:25,480 --> 00:23:28,040
Speaker 3: the Lions' schedule is about to happen. You can't ever

472
00:23:28,119 --> 00:23:31,280
Speaker 3: count out a Chiefs team, but they've got bucks. The Vikings,

473
00:23:31,320 --> 00:23:33,000
Speaker 3: I think are better than they've looked the last couple

474
00:23:33,040 --> 00:23:36,520
Speaker 3: of weeks. Commanders obviously can't count them out. Eagles, and

475
00:23:37,040 --> 00:23:40,119
Speaker 3: like the rest of their they have a tough remaining schedule.

476
00:23:40,760 --> 00:23:43,480
Speaker 3: That's like the hard part for me on getting to

477
00:23:43,520 --> 00:23:45,240
Speaker 3: the window on the Lions. I think that they beat

478
00:23:45,280 --> 00:23:47,639
Speaker 3: the Chiefs, probably by a field goal, So I would

479
00:23:47,720 --> 00:23:50,879
Speaker 3: probably like this number if it stays the same by

480
00:23:50,880 --> 00:23:55,440
Speaker 3: the time we have more information on injury reports on Thursday.

481
00:23:55,520 --> 00:23:58,200
Speaker 2: But it's I can't fait the Colts. Their schedule is

482
00:23:58,240 --> 00:23:58,880
Speaker 2: too easy.

483
00:23:59,040 --> 00:24:00,680
Speaker 3: If I have to pick guy to my head type

484
00:24:00,680 --> 00:24:02,760
Speaker 3: of situation, it would probably be the Lions. But I

485
00:24:02,800 --> 00:24:05,159
Speaker 3: still don't think they lose to this this version of

486
00:24:05,200 --> 00:24:08,040
Speaker 3: the Chiefs that we have right now is currently constructed.

487
00:24:08,280 --> 00:24:09,159
Speaker 2: It's more so.

488
00:24:09,040 --> 00:24:11,560
Speaker 3: If you if I had to pick, it's the potential

489
00:24:11,600 --> 00:24:13,480
Speaker 3: of a look ahead of the schedule that they have

490
00:24:13,640 --> 00:24:14,000
Speaker 3: over the.

491
00:24:13,960 --> 00:24:16,199
Speaker 2: Next couple of weeks. And I don't like either position.

492
00:24:18,000 --> 00:24:21,760
Speaker 1: The percentages are overwhelming, and it is early. I like

493
00:24:21,800 --> 00:24:24,040
Speaker 1: to read into this stuff, but more so later in

494
00:24:24,080 --> 00:24:26,000
Speaker 1: the week the closer we get to kick off seventy

495
00:24:26,000 --> 00:24:27,960
Speaker 1: three percent of the bets eighty eight percent of the

496
00:24:28,000 --> 00:24:32,280
Speaker 1: money on the Detroit Lions as it stands right now. Now,

497
00:24:32,320 --> 00:24:35,920
Speaker 1: this stucky is where your bread is really buttered. The Ats,

498
00:24:36,320 --> 00:24:40,119
Speaker 1: Jail Birds, the Raiders, the Bengals, the Ravens one and

499
00:24:40,200 --> 00:24:41,280
Speaker 1: four against the spread.

500
00:24:41,880 --> 00:24:43,360
Speaker 6: You've got teams off blowouts.

501
00:24:43,400 --> 00:24:45,719
Speaker 1: The Ravens got blown out, the Raiders got blown out,

502
00:24:45,800 --> 00:24:49,160
Speaker 1: the Jets, the Giants. Are any of these teams by

503
00:24:49,280 --> 00:24:55,240
Speaker 1: lows for you as we enter week six? By super well, yeah,

504
00:24:55,240 --> 00:24:55,879
Speaker 1: I mean the Jets.

505
00:24:55,880 --> 00:24:57,560
Speaker 4: It's hard to back the Jets right now, but this

506
00:24:57,600 --> 00:25:00,280
Speaker 4: is the low point of the Jets. The Broncos over

507
00:25:00,320 --> 00:25:02,080
Speaker 4: a touchdown. I could only look at the Jets like

508
00:25:02,119 --> 00:25:05,359
Speaker 4: I make at six. So the problem is that the

509
00:25:05,400 --> 00:25:09,040
Speaker 4: Jets get behind in that game, like they have no recourse,

510
00:25:09,200 --> 00:25:11,960
Speaker 4: they have no recourse playing from behind, and they've had

511
00:25:12,000 --> 00:25:15,439
Speaker 4: just some sad efforts. I mean, that was an incredibly

512
00:25:15,480 --> 00:25:18,320
Speaker 4: sad effort. Zero and four, you're getting the Cowboys in

513
00:25:18,359 --> 00:25:20,800
Speaker 4: a great spot. They were without four starting offensive lineman,

514
00:25:20,800 --> 00:25:25,800
Speaker 4: two starting receivers, with a bad defense, and the Jets

515
00:25:25,800 --> 00:25:30,080
Speaker 4: defense is it's it can't stop a nosebleed. But I

516
00:25:30,560 --> 00:25:33,199
Speaker 4: show value there the way that I bet the NFL.

517
00:25:33,320 --> 00:25:34,960
Speaker 4: That would be the side that I would look. But

518
00:25:35,760 --> 00:25:37,960
Speaker 4: it's not a game that I'm running to bet the Ravens.

519
00:25:37,960 --> 00:25:40,399
Speaker 4: It's all about their injuries. Like, it's not just Lamar Jackson.

520
00:25:40,720 --> 00:25:43,280
Speaker 4: There's an outside chance he plays, and I don't know

521
00:25:43,280 --> 00:25:44,639
Speaker 4: how the Ravens are going to handle. Like, you're one

522
00:25:44,680 --> 00:25:48,879
Speaker 4: in four, but you have a bye coming up, and

523
00:25:48,920 --> 00:25:51,639
Speaker 4: you're still playing a really good Rams team. So but

524
00:25:51,680 --> 00:25:54,440
Speaker 4: do you want to drop the one in five versus

525
00:25:54,560 --> 00:25:57,000
Speaker 4: risking Lamar if he is able to go? If he

526
00:25:57,119 --> 00:25:59,680
Speaker 4: is able to go, like, but he's definitely not gonna

527
00:25:59,680 --> 00:26:02,520
Speaker 4: bet a hun percent, and you risk losing them long term.

528
00:26:02,600 --> 00:26:04,520
Speaker 4: So I don't know how they're gonna wear those options.

529
00:26:04,680 --> 00:26:07,520
Speaker 4: You also have all the other injuries. You know you're

530
00:26:07,640 --> 00:26:10,960
Speaker 4: you're Ronnie Stanley or Kyle Hamilton. I mean Humphrey and

531
00:26:11,200 --> 00:26:14,080
Speaker 4: rokeland Smith, your entire defensive line, your corners, like all

532
00:26:14,080 --> 00:26:15,640
Speaker 4: these A lot of these guys are going to be out.

533
00:26:16,840 --> 00:26:20,800
Speaker 4: So it's a mess. So if you wanted to, like speculative,

534
00:26:20,880 --> 00:26:23,679
Speaker 4: bet on the Ravens plus seven and a half in

535
00:26:23,720 --> 00:26:26,440
Speaker 4: case the Mark comes back, it would close under seven

536
00:26:26,520 --> 00:26:30,360
Speaker 4: for sure, and then if you wanted to, you could

537
00:26:30,440 --> 00:26:35,680
Speaker 4: just get out of it. But i'd write without knowing

538
00:26:35,680 --> 00:26:39,480
Speaker 4: the injury report. I can't do anything there. The other

539
00:26:39,520 --> 00:26:41,600
Speaker 4: one you mentioned was the Raiders.

540
00:26:43,200 --> 00:26:45,280
Speaker 6: The Raiders are four and a half point favorite.

541
00:26:45,359 --> 00:26:47,920
Speaker 4: Yeah, it would be Raiders or nothing for me in

542
00:26:48,119 --> 00:26:52,080
Speaker 4: the Titans at four and a half, I could think

543
00:26:52,080 --> 00:26:53,679
Speaker 4: about the Raiders, And you gotta remember the Titans were

544
00:26:53,720 --> 00:26:55,359
Speaker 4: about to be down twenty eight six in that game

545
00:26:55,440 --> 00:26:58,600
Speaker 4: to the Cardinals, who are beat up a non elite team,

546
00:26:59,359 --> 00:27:00,960
Speaker 4: and they had every thing go their way. This is

547
00:27:00,960 --> 00:27:05,000
Speaker 4: still Brian Callahan, who's still four and twenty against the spread.

548
00:27:05,880 --> 00:27:08,160
Speaker 4: The Raiders have been a mess, but it all starts

549
00:27:08,160 --> 00:27:10,119
Speaker 4: with their offensive line, and it's caused Geno to be

550
00:27:10,160 --> 00:27:13,720
Speaker 4: a mess. Gino has been really bad under pressure when

551
00:27:13,720 --> 00:27:15,480
Speaker 4: he has to throw quick like if he has time,

552
00:27:16,920 --> 00:27:18,560
Speaker 4: is brock Bower is going to play though? Like brock

553
00:27:18,600 --> 00:27:21,119
Speaker 4: Bowers is really really critical piece to that offense.

554
00:27:21,200 --> 00:27:22,840
Speaker 2: What a mishandled injury.

555
00:27:23,840 --> 00:27:27,919
Speaker 4: Yeah, very very freely handled. So but like the Titans

556
00:27:27,920 --> 00:27:30,160
Speaker 4: aren't going to take advantage of the Raiders offensive line.

557
00:27:30,520 --> 00:27:32,199
Speaker 4: Arden Key also got hurt, like they just have no

558
00:27:32,320 --> 00:27:38,159
Speaker 4: edge rush. So yeah, it would be Raiders or nothing.

559
00:27:38,240 --> 00:27:41,359
Speaker 4: So yeah, again, that's just the nature of how I

560
00:27:41,400 --> 00:27:45,280
Speaker 4: bet the NFL. I would look at all those teams.

561
00:27:45,320 --> 00:27:47,680
Speaker 4: The Ravens are just too different. It's too difficult right

562
00:27:47,720 --> 00:27:51,000
Speaker 4: now to say anything about because of the injury report.

563
00:27:52,160 --> 00:27:55,040
Speaker 4: But of the three, I would go Raiders for this week,

564
00:27:55,160 --> 00:28:00,840
Speaker 4: Raiders then Jets, then Ravens, ranking in order of interest.

565
00:28:01,040 --> 00:28:02,959
Speaker 6: What about you, Kendrick, Are you breaking any of them

566
00:28:03,000 --> 00:28:03,720
Speaker 6: out of bet jail?

567
00:28:05,119 --> 00:28:07,320
Speaker 3: No, I'm not breaking any of them out of bet jail.

568
00:28:07,560 --> 00:28:10,000
Speaker 3: Yet I do agree about the injury report. I know

569
00:28:10,040 --> 00:28:12,159
Speaker 3: it's not an option that I was provided, But if

570
00:28:12,200 --> 00:28:15,960
Speaker 3: I'm going to look anywhere for like an underdog situation,

571
00:28:16,160 --> 00:28:17,879
Speaker 3: I'm kind of low key looking at the Browns to

572
00:28:17,880 --> 00:28:18,919
Speaker 3: cover the five and a half.

573
00:28:20,960 --> 00:28:23,240
Speaker 2: So then I know, I just don't believe.

574
00:28:22,920 --> 00:28:28,919
Speaker 1: In Yeah, that might deliver us perfectly to our plant

575
00:28:28,920 --> 00:28:34,080
Speaker 1: your flag game of the week, might flag in a

576
00:28:34,119 --> 00:28:34,560
Speaker 1: shut up.

577
00:28:34,800 --> 00:28:36,440
Speaker 4: I'm trying to plant my flag here.

578
00:28:36,560 --> 00:28:37,520
Speaker 5: Okay, you're really.

579
00:28:37,359 --> 00:28:38,680
Speaker 6: Planting your flag in that thing.

580
00:28:38,960 --> 00:28:41,480
Speaker 1: I have two that I'm deciding between and the Steelers

581
00:28:41,520 --> 00:28:44,800
Speaker 1: minus the five or four and a half, which you

582
00:28:44,840 --> 00:28:48,200
Speaker 1: can get it over on DraftKings the crown is yours,

583
00:28:49,160 --> 00:28:49,440
Speaker 1: or the.

584
00:28:49,400 --> 00:28:51,760
Speaker 6: Panthers plus three and a half. I've been teetering.

585
00:28:52,280 --> 00:28:54,840
Speaker 1: I have bets placed on both, so I guess I'm

586
00:28:54,880 --> 00:28:57,360
Speaker 1: just gonna say that I have two. I'm planting two

587
00:28:57,440 --> 00:29:00,360
Speaker 1: flags this week. Panthers plus three and a half at

588
00:29:00,360 --> 00:29:04,640
Speaker 1: home against the Cowboys, Steelers minus five at home against

589
00:29:04,640 --> 00:29:07,760
Speaker 1: the Browns. This is a terrible spot for the Cleveland Browns.

590
00:29:07,760 --> 00:29:10,840
Speaker 1: They come back after a trip to London, take on

591
00:29:10,880 --> 00:29:14,880
Speaker 1: a Steelers team that's been on a by and you

592
00:29:14,960 --> 00:29:17,240
Speaker 1: still have a rookie quarterback who looked all right, but

593
00:29:17,440 --> 00:29:19,760
Speaker 1: now he's gonna go up against the Steelers pass rush

594
00:29:19,800 --> 00:29:23,200
Speaker 1: in Pittsburgh with the terrible towels waving. I think Aaron

595
00:29:23,280 --> 00:29:24,960
Speaker 1: Rodgers is really good at getting the ball out of

596
00:29:24,960 --> 00:29:26,960
Speaker 1: his hands quickly, so he can gate some of that

597
00:29:27,480 --> 00:29:30,960
Speaker 1: pass rush from Cleveland and they might get some guys

598
00:29:30,960 --> 00:29:31,920
Speaker 1: back in this one too.

599
00:29:32,280 --> 00:29:33,480
Speaker 6: So this feels like.

600
00:29:33,440 --> 00:29:35,840
Speaker 3: Thirty eight and a half though, and you think that

601
00:29:35,880 --> 00:29:38,360
Speaker 3: they're gonna cover five five and a half like that,

602
00:29:38,560 --> 00:29:39,880
Speaker 3: Just that doesn't feel right to me.

603
00:29:41,400 --> 00:29:43,600
Speaker 6: I would not bet it past five, but if you

604
00:29:43,640 --> 00:29:44,640
Speaker 6: can get it four and a half.

605
00:29:44,680 --> 00:29:47,400
Speaker 1: Sitting right now at DraftKings, I bet it at five,

606
00:29:47,560 --> 00:29:49,920
Speaker 1: just because I don't like delay the minus one fifteen.

607
00:29:49,960 --> 00:29:51,520
Speaker 6: I got it minus one ten.

608
00:29:51,680 --> 00:29:54,960
Speaker 1: But the Steelers would be one the Panthers or the

609
00:29:55,000 --> 00:29:58,240
Speaker 1: other another schedule spot disaster the Cowboys. This is their

610
00:29:58,280 --> 00:30:02,200
Speaker 1: third road game in four weeks, and Stucky, you're gonna

611
00:30:02,200 --> 00:30:05,560
Speaker 1: love this one because you love my power ratings. I

612
00:30:05,560 --> 00:30:08,280
Speaker 1: have the I have the Cowboys as one point favorites

613
00:30:08,600 --> 00:30:14,080
Speaker 1: in this game. Apparently, apparently I I'm having to relook

614
00:30:14,120 --> 00:30:15,160
Speaker 1: at the Panthers a little bit.

615
00:30:15,200 --> 00:30:17,000
Speaker 6: But still, even if I were to.

616
00:30:17,160 --> 00:30:20,680
Speaker 1: Bump them up or bump them down, this is still

617
00:30:20,720 --> 00:30:23,720
Speaker 1: a bye on the Carolina Panthers. You got a Rico

618
00:30:23,880 --> 00:30:27,000
Speaker 1: Dalble revenge game. Kidding sort of. The Cowboys do have

619
00:30:27,040 --> 00:30:29,880
Speaker 1: the worst graded run defense in the NFL. Taking on

620
00:30:29,920 --> 00:30:32,120
Speaker 1: a guy that just rumbled for two hundred yards. Who

621
00:30:32,200 --> 00:30:35,440
Speaker 1: used to play for them? Ceedee Lamb might come back

622
00:30:35,480 --> 00:30:37,200
Speaker 1: in this game. That would push the line to four

623
00:30:37,200 --> 00:30:39,160
Speaker 1: to four and a half. So if you want to,

624
00:30:41,160 --> 00:30:44,240
Speaker 1: and the Panthers are unbeaten at home, Cowboys off of

625
00:30:44,280 --> 00:30:46,400
Speaker 1: a blowout win, so give me the points.

626
00:30:46,440 --> 00:30:48,480
Speaker 6: I think that's but those are my those are my

627
00:30:48,560 --> 00:30:49,520
Speaker 6: two plant the flag game.

628
00:30:49,600 --> 00:30:51,880
Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean, I don't disagree with on the Panthers,

629
00:30:51,880 --> 00:30:53,800
Speaker 4: but I gotta wait on the injury like I make

630
00:30:53,840 --> 00:30:58,760
Speaker 4: it two. On the surface, I mean, the Cowboys have

631
00:30:58,760 --> 00:31:01,040
Speaker 4: wins over the Jets and the and then a miraculous

632
00:31:01,040 --> 00:31:03,680
Speaker 4: win over Russell Wilson and the Giants. But their run

633
00:31:03,720 --> 00:31:09,080
Speaker 4: game has been really good, which like the Cardinals. Clay Adams,

634
00:31:09,200 --> 00:31:12,000
Speaker 4: he went from Arizona to Dallas in the offseason and

635
00:31:12,160 --> 00:31:14,400
Speaker 4: their run game has been outstanding. And we were laughing

636
00:31:14,440 --> 00:31:18,280
Speaker 4: at their coordinator, their coaching, their running back room, and

637
00:31:18,320 --> 00:31:21,760
Speaker 4: their offensive line has been hurt and their their running

638
00:31:21,760 --> 00:31:23,920
Speaker 4: game has been really good. And Dak has been amazing.

639
00:31:24,160 --> 00:31:26,800
Speaker 4: But there were about four starting offensive linemen last week.

640
00:31:26,800 --> 00:31:29,720
Speaker 4: I assumed Tyler Smith will be back. We the other three,

641
00:31:30,240 --> 00:31:33,440
Speaker 4: I don't know, Uh, Turpin and Lamb. I don't know.

642
00:31:34,680 --> 00:31:38,520
Speaker 4: So yeah, well, Panthers could get Coker back, which I

643
00:31:38,520 --> 00:31:40,560
Speaker 4: think could be big. I like some of the things

644
00:31:40,560 --> 00:31:45,320
Speaker 4: I saw from from uh Jimmy Horn last week. So

645
00:31:45,440 --> 00:31:47,120
Speaker 4: we had over a field goal, I don't I don't

646
00:31:47,120 --> 00:31:49,720
Speaker 4: mind that. Yeah, the spot for the Steelers is great,

647
00:31:49,760 --> 00:31:55,440
Speaker 4: but am I running to lay points with that team

648
00:31:55,880 --> 00:32:00,800
Speaker 4: in the divisional game with such a low total. The

649
00:32:00,880 --> 00:32:04,240
Speaker 4: Browns should be able to run the ball on the Steelers,

650
00:32:04,520 --> 00:32:06,120
Speaker 4: which is all they want to do, and then short

651
00:32:06,160 --> 00:32:09,640
Speaker 4: pass to neutralize their pass rush and they should have

652
00:32:09,680 --> 00:32:11,920
Speaker 4: success running the ball in Pittsburgh. And Judkins has looked

653
00:32:11,920 --> 00:32:16,920
Speaker 4: pretty good. So yeah, the spots scream Steelers, but I'm

654
00:32:17,000 --> 00:32:19,080
Speaker 4: not running to light to have needed the win by

655
00:32:19,080 --> 00:32:23,880
Speaker 4: a touchdown plus. So of those two, I think I

656
00:32:23,880 --> 00:32:26,600
Speaker 4: would prefer Carolina, but a lot of injuries to wait on.

657
00:32:26,880 --> 00:32:31,240
Speaker 4: I'll play my flag. I'll go. I'll go Falcons plus

658
00:32:31,280 --> 00:32:34,959
Speaker 4: four and a half at DraftKings or Mother Night Football

659
00:32:34,960 --> 00:32:38,160
Speaker 4: against the Bills. The Bills right now just are not

660
00:32:38,240 --> 00:32:43,160
Speaker 4: playing great football, and they've played since the miraculous comeback

661
00:32:43,200 --> 00:32:46,280
Speaker 4: against the Ravens. They've played a joke of a schedule.

662
00:32:46,440 --> 00:32:50,160
Speaker 4: I mean, you lose at home to the Patriots. They

663
00:32:50,200 --> 00:32:52,480
Speaker 4: were in they were at risk of losing to the

664
00:32:52,520 --> 00:32:55,160
Speaker 4: Saints at home. They were even at risk of losing

665
00:32:55,160 --> 00:32:58,480
Speaker 4: to the Dolphins at home. Those games were all close.

666
00:32:58,760 --> 00:33:02,040
Speaker 4: The defense is bad right now. The linebackers who are

667
00:33:02,120 --> 00:33:06,560
Speaker 4: hurt are bad. Matt Malona looks washed at Oliver. Is

668
00:33:06,600 --> 00:33:09,040
Speaker 4: he going to play? I don't know. But the secondary's

669
00:33:09,040 --> 00:33:12,120
Speaker 4: not even playing well. The safeties aren't great, the corners

670
00:33:12,120 --> 00:33:14,800
Speaker 4: aren't playing at a high level. And you can run

671
00:33:14,800 --> 00:33:19,240
Speaker 4: on Buffalo. Well, that's that's bad news. Against Atlanta and

672
00:33:19,280 --> 00:33:22,800
Speaker 4: their run game. With Bijon and al Jieir, I think

673
00:33:22,800 --> 00:33:26,560
Speaker 4: Atlanta will be able to move the ball. Atlanta's defense

674
00:33:26,680 --> 00:33:29,880
Speaker 4: should be healthier. Aj Terrell should come back now. Josh

675
00:33:29,960 --> 00:33:33,520
Speaker 4: Allen indoors. He's gonna score points. He's Josh Allen. But

676
00:33:33,560 --> 00:33:35,000
Speaker 4: the one thing you want to do against him, done

677
00:33:35,040 --> 00:33:36,280
Speaker 4: a lot of work on this is like you you

678
00:33:37,120 --> 00:33:38,840
Speaker 4: want to blitz him, and if you look at his

679
00:33:38,960 --> 00:33:42,440
Speaker 4: numbers just EPA for play the last two years, his

680
00:33:42,520 --> 00:33:46,400
Speaker 4: numbers are much worse. When you blitz him, you can't

681
00:33:46,440 --> 00:33:50,480
Speaker 4: just sit back, and you can't just sit back or

682
00:33:50,520 --> 00:33:52,480
Speaker 4: play man like he's gonna make plays. You have to

683
00:33:52,560 --> 00:33:54,800
Speaker 4: just bring pressure, and the Falcons are blitzing one of

684
00:33:54,800 --> 00:33:57,680
Speaker 4: the highest rates in the NFL, and it's an improved defense,

685
00:33:58,200 --> 00:34:00,000
Speaker 4: so if they're off the by they should be helped.

686
00:34:00,240 --> 00:34:04,080
Speaker 4: Like they're wide receivers. I've been dealing with injuries, So yeah,

687
00:34:04,480 --> 00:34:07,400
Speaker 4: four and a half. I think I'll plant my flag

688
00:34:07,400 --> 00:34:09,080
Speaker 4: on the Falcons on Monday Night. I think that's a

689
00:34:09,080 --> 00:34:10,360
Speaker 4: game that goes right down to the wire.

690
00:34:11,960 --> 00:34:15,080
Speaker 3: I am going to plant my flag on the Patriots

691
00:34:15,200 --> 00:34:19,120
Speaker 3: minus three and a half, I think, regardless of the

692
00:34:19,120 --> 00:34:21,080
Speaker 3: fact that it's back to back road games for them,

693
00:34:21,080 --> 00:34:23,760
Speaker 3: it was a Drake May coming out party. I'm hoping

694
00:34:23,760 --> 00:34:26,320
Speaker 3: that they learn from their mistakes and give Trevon Henderson

695
00:34:26,360 --> 00:34:29,040
Speaker 3: some more time. I don't understand what is going on

696
00:34:29,120 --> 00:34:31,640
Speaker 3: with that coaching staff and not allowing him to play.

697
00:34:31,840 --> 00:34:34,359
Speaker 3: People up here really pissed about it, regardless of the way,

698
00:34:34,360 --> 00:34:35,880
Speaker 3: and I think that they're making a huge mistake with

699
00:34:35,920 --> 00:34:39,560
Speaker 3: that situation. But they're getting healthier, they're getting better. The

700
00:34:39,640 --> 00:34:42,359
Speaker 3: Saints have so many injuries. Don't really care that it's

701
00:34:42,360 --> 00:34:45,040
Speaker 3: at home for them. Spencer Ratler whatever, I get that

702
00:34:45,080 --> 00:34:47,120
Speaker 3: people think that he's out kicking his coverage a bit

703
00:34:47,200 --> 00:34:48,719
Speaker 3: that's got to end at some point. I'm sure they're

704
00:34:48,719 --> 00:34:51,880
Speaker 3: going to have some packages for Taysom Hill, but they're

705
00:34:51,960 --> 00:34:55,280
Speaker 3: just injured. And the Patriots really surprised.

706
00:34:54,840 --> 00:34:55,359
Speaker 2: Me this week.

707
00:34:55,400 --> 00:34:58,399
Speaker 3: I think that they're finally coming together, whether it's Drake

708
00:34:58,440 --> 00:35:01,200
Speaker 3: May finally being able to buy in or understand or

709
00:35:01,360 --> 00:35:06,000
Speaker 3: remember the Josh McDaniel's playbook, because it's known for being complicated,

710
00:35:06,040 --> 00:35:08,040
Speaker 3: and I think that that was probably a big struggle

711
00:35:08,040 --> 00:35:09,520
Speaker 3: for him in the first few weeks, was just that

712
00:35:09,560 --> 00:35:12,799
Speaker 3: he wasn't confident or caught up or well rehearsed enough

713
00:35:12,800 --> 00:35:16,200
Speaker 3: with the Josh McDaniels system to be comfortable. But they

714
00:35:16,560 --> 00:35:18,320
Speaker 3: they won that game the other night. They deserve to

715
00:35:18,360 --> 00:35:19,839
Speaker 3: win that game the other night. We can talk about

716
00:35:19,880 --> 00:35:21,600
Speaker 3: the Bills issues that they're having all we want, but

717
00:35:21,640 --> 00:35:24,240
Speaker 3: they still beat the Bills in Orchard Park in primetime.

718
00:35:24,320 --> 00:35:27,080
Speaker 3: I think it's a good confidence spot for them. And

719
00:35:27,120 --> 00:35:28,759
Speaker 3: you know, they finally got Hunter Henry involved in the

720
00:35:28,760 --> 00:35:30,439
Speaker 3: past game. I think that that was huge for them.

721
00:35:30,480 --> 00:35:33,960
Speaker 3: Stefan looks like he's finally healthy. I just I think

722
00:35:34,000 --> 00:35:36,160
Speaker 3: that this is a better spot for the Patriots against

723
00:35:36,200 --> 00:35:40,360
Speaker 3: a crappy New Orleans Saints team that's injured, don't.

724
00:35:40,160 --> 00:35:41,440
Speaker 2: Care, back to back road spots.

725
00:35:41,520 --> 00:35:41,920
Speaker 6: Whatever.

726
00:35:42,040 --> 00:35:44,560
Speaker 2: Give me the Patriots.

727
00:35:43,239 --> 00:35:48,720
Speaker 4: They're buying high on the Pats. And now.

728
00:35:50,480 --> 00:35:54,399
Speaker 3: They beat the Bills, the Cowboys, and the Patriots this week.

729
00:35:54,440 --> 00:35:56,160
Speaker 6: Who am I help?

730
00:35:56,680 --> 00:35:59,400
Speaker 4: Yeah? I look this line is now now that it's

731
00:35:59,440 --> 00:36:02,319
Speaker 4: crossed three because the Patriots won and Drake Mays look great.

732
00:36:03,200 --> 00:36:03,520
Speaker 6: People.

733
00:36:04,360 --> 00:36:07,960
Speaker 4: Everyone disrespects the Saints, and the Saints are better than

734
00:36:07,960 --> 00:36:08,920
Speaker 4: people give them credit for.

735
00:36:10,880 --> 00:36:13,759
Speaker 6: Them. There's some spread covering bastards is what they are.

736
00:36:13,920 --> 00:36:17,160
Speaker 4: Okay, yeah, I mean they they easily could have won

737
00:36:17,200 --> 00:36:20,839
Speaker 4: in Buffalo. A couple of plays break their way. They

738
00:36:20,880 --> 00:36:23,160
Speaker 4: beat the Giants. They had one game go haywire and

739
00:36:23,200 --> 00:36:25,440
Speaker 4: it was in Seattle because of a ton of special

740
00:36:25,440 --> 00:36:30,759
Speaker 4: teams mistakes, rattlers playing decently. We'll see how this this

741
00:36:30,840 --> 00:36:36,239
Speaker 4: new Patriots team can handle. That's the success. That's just

742
00:36:36,400 --> 00:36:38,000
Speaker 4: it's a bad spot. Like going down to New Orleans

743
00:36:38,040 --> 00:36:40,840
Speaker 4: after that huge winning Prime time over Buffalo screams like

744
00:36:41,200 --> 00:36:45,040
Speaker 4: sleepy fat flat spot to me. And I think that

745
00:36:45,120 --> 00:36:47,919
Speaker 4: there's there's some opportunities for New Orleans to move the ball.

746
00:36:47,960 --> 00:36:50,360
Speaker 4: But I have to dig a little deeper onto that one.

747
00:36:52,000 --> 00:36:55,200
Speaker 4: But uh yeah, we shall see.

748
00:36:56,719 --> 00:36:59,520
Speaker 6: All right, it is time for the main events.

749
00:37:00,080 --> 00:37:03,960
Speaker 1: Evan Abrams, the director of research over at Action Network, joins.

750
00:37:03,760 --> 00:37:05,719
Speaker 6: Us now for the primer.

751
00:37:06,080 --> 00:37:09,760
Speaker 1: No betting week can start without reading the primer Overtactionnetwork

752
00:37:09,840 --> 00:37:10,400
Speaker 1: dot Com.

753
00:37:10,440 --> 00:37:12,840
Speaker 6: Evan, Welcome to this show.

754
00:37:13,719 --> 00:37:16,640
Speaker 7: What's going on everybody? I mean, we had to know

755
00:37:16,800 --> 00:37:19,960
Speaker 7: that the underdog Week was coming soon. Everyone had been

756
00:37:20,000 --> 00:37:23,960
Speaker 7: teasing it and teasing it, but it finally came upon us.

757
00:37:24,840 --> 00:37:27,840
Speaker 1: What were the numbers that you shared on Twitter this morning?

758
00:37:27,960 --> 00:37:31,800
Speaker 1: Nine and five straight up? Was it for underdogs?

759
00:37:32,200 --> 00:37:33,880
Speaker 5: Yeah? Crazy? So most outright?

760
00:37:34,000 --> 00:37:36,640
Speaker 7: Nine five was right, most outright wins by dogs in

761
00:37:36,640 --> 00:37:39,279
Speaker 7: a single week since twenty two beginning of twenty twenty two,

762
00:37:40,000 --> 00:37:42,239
Speaker 7: and dogs hadn't gone nine and five straight up or

763
00:37:42,280 --> 00:37:43,160
Speaker 7: better in a single.

764
00:37:42,920 --> 00:37:45,800
Speaker 5: Week since twenty seventeen, so we had been waiting a

765
00:37:45,840 --> 00:37:46,680
Speaker 5: little while for this.

766
00:37:46,840 --> 00:37:50,000
Speaker 7: I think the craziest is the fact that the Niners, Titans,

767
00:37:50,040 --> 00:37:53,560
Speaker 7: Patriots all plus seven and a half all outright only

768
00:37:53,560 --> 00:37:56,279
Speaker 7: a third time last decade we've seen three of those

769
00:37:56,280 --> 00:37:59,359
Speaker 7: dogs come throughout right in a single week. I think

770
00:37:59,360 --> 00:38:01,399
Speaker 7: the interesting thing, which I'll look at and probably having

771
00:38:01,400 --> 00:38:05,520
Speaker 7: the article by today, is what happens after those weeks

772
00:38:05,560 --> 00:38:08,000
Speaker 7: when you see some of these outliers. I'm sure it's

773
00:38:08,040 --> 00:38:10,759
Speaker 7: not crazy, but you know, i'd be expecting fifty six

774
00:38:10,880 --> 00:38:14,560
Speaker 7: fifty five percent against the spreads for favorites. Maybe a

775
00:38:14,600 --> 00:38:17,799
Speaker 7: little bit of a bounce back, but interesting nonetheless in

776
00:38:17,880 --> 00:38:18,719
Speaker 7: terms of also the.

777
00:38:18,600 --> 00:38:21,319
Speaker 5: Line movement this week to see if there's any impact there.

778
00:38:21,360 --> 00:38:22,600
Speaker 5: But yeah, crazy.

779
00:38:22,320 --> 00:38:27,080
Speaker 1: One what is the what is the one the one

780
00:38:27,160 --> 00:38:30,920
Speaker 1: item from the primer that's about to drop if it

781
00:38:30,960 --> 00:38:34,760
Speaker 1: hasn't already that it stands out to you this week?

782
00:38:35,960 --> 00:38:39,160
Speaker 7: I would just say teams off of losses, so Heurts

783
00:38:39,680 --> 00:38:43,960
Speaker 7: Mahomes Josh Stafford. How many weeks do you see were

784
00:38:44,040 --> 00:38:47,640
Speaker 7: all those quarterbacks coming off losses? And the Packers basically

785
00:38:47,719 --> 00:38:50,160
Speaker 7: not a loss but a buy off of a tie

786
00:38:50,280 --> 00:38:52,560
Speaker 7: and a loss, so they're trying to get back on

787
00:38:52,600 --> 00:38:56,160
Speaker 7: track as well. So some really good teams where I

788
00:38:56,200 --> 00:38:58,040
Speaker 7: think people are seeing the inevitable.

789
00:38:58,080 --> 00:39:00,080
Speaker 5: So it's interesting to see how the lines move on that.

790
00:39:00,440 --> 00:39:03,160
Speaker 7: And also the most fun thing, I could say, only

791
00:39:03,160 --> 00:39:05,640
Speaker 7: two qbs with three and oh ats are better as

792
00:39:05,680 --> 00:39:09,800
Speaker 7: a favorite this season Jared Duff and of course Daniel Jones,

793
00:39:10,040 --> 00:39:12,279
Speaker 7: So I can't wait to see if that continues.

794
00:39:12,320 --> 00:39:14,040
Speaker 5: But I think that's the fun stuff.

795
00:39:14,440 --> 00:39:17,560
Speaker 1: What about the Browns come back over from London they

796
00:39:17,560 --> 00:39:20,120
Speaker 1: didn't take the bye week. Do you have anything on

797
00:39:20,320 --> 00:39:25,840
Speaker 1: teams that have that scheduled disadvantage that don't take the

798
00:39:25,880 --> 00:39:27,800
Speaker 1: buye after the international travel.

799
00:39:28,920 --> 00:39:32,640
Speaker 8: I mean, honestly, it's amusually with the Steelers today. Honestly,

800
00:39:32,680 --> 00:39:35,840
Speaker 8: it's usually not a terrible sign. So the in season

801
00:39:35,880 --> 00:39:38,520
Speaker 8: buy has done the Steelers well at least. I think

802
00:39:38,520 --> 00:39:39,839
Speaker 8: there's a few ways look at this.

803
00:39:39,840 --> 00:39:43,080
Speaker 7: There's the in season by because Steeler's coming off the

804
00:39:43,080 --> 00:39:44,680
Speaker 7: buy in that one, So I think there's a way

805
00:39:44,719 --> 00:39:46,360
Speaker 7: to look at it from Tomlin's point of view. But

806
00:39:46,640 --> 00:39:48,759
Speaker 7: from the Browns, it's turning from London without a bye week.

807
00:39:48,760 --> 00:39:51,400
Speaker 7: Cleveland will be the twenty fifteen They're turned back to

808
00:39:51,440 --> 00:39:54,319
Speaker 7: the States without a bye after playing an international game

809
00:39:54,719 --> 00:39:57,480
Speaker 7: fifteen and nine straight up, thirteen and eleven ats on

810
00:39:57,520 --> 00:40:02,239
Speaker 7: a short rest situation. It's not it's not terrible, not

811
00:40:02,320 --> 00:40:04,680
Speaker 7: bad at all, And the Browns will be on the road.

812
00:40:04,960 --> 00:40:07,759
Speaker 7: Of the twenty four previous teams, only one didn't play

813
00:40:07,760 --> 00:40:10,239
Speaker 7: at home. So Brown's also in a unique situation where

814
00:40:10,239 --> 00:40:14,080
Speaker 7: mostly teams they send them back home after these road

815
00:40:14,120 --> 00:40:17,799
Speaker 7: trips out overseas. Brown's not in that spot, so a.

816
00:40:17,719 --> 00:40:19,759
Speaker 5: Little bit of a unique one. But the play has

817
00:40:19,760 --> 00:40:20,600
Speaker 5: been decent.

818
00:40:20,719 --> 00:40:23,280
Speaker 1: And how many of them are not only not at home,

819
00:40:23,320 --> 00:40:27,320
Speaker 1: but also facing a team that just came off the bye.

820
00:40:27,440 --> 00:40:30,120
Speaker 1: That's that's part of that uniqueness to it.

821
00:40:30,200 --> 00:40:31,759
Speaker 7: I mean, what about this, I mean Brown, I mean,

822
00:40:32,040 --> 00:40:34,320
Speaker 7: you'll probably hear this all week, but they've lost twenty

823
00:40:34,360 --> 00:40:37,239
Speaker 7: one straight regular season games in Pittsburgh, so that will

824
00:40:37,239 --> 00:40:39,440
Speaker 7: be something you'll hear all week and maybe a little

825
00:40:39,480 --> 00:40:42,000
Speaker 7: motivation they aren't still.

826
00:40:41,960 --> 00:40:44,279
Speaker 4: And at home by the teams at home off of

827
00:40:44,280 --> 00:40:48,080
Speaker 4: the by though, have been overvalue. That spot's been over

828
00:40:48,160 --> 00:40:50,080
Speaker 4: value for year. I mean, because you don't even practice

829
00:40:50,080 --> 00:40:51,560
Speaker 4: in a bye week anymore. It's just basically just a

830
00:40:51,560 --> 00:40:53,960
Speaker 4: week off. Now. It helps in the injury front, but

831
00:40:54,400 --> 00:40:57,120
Speaker 4: do you have that pandy like teams home teams home

832
00:40:57,200 --> 00:41:00,279
Speaker 4: favorites off of a bye I think I feel like

833
00:41:00,680 --> 00:41:02,799
Speaker 4: that spot's been over value for the last like five years,

834
00:41:02,800 --> 00:41:04,680
Speaker 4: and they haven't performed well against the spread. I could

835
00:41:04,680 --> 00:41:05,160
Speaker 4: be off though.

836
00:41:07,440 --> 00:41:09,040
Speaker 2: Practice this week interesting.

837
00:41:09,040 --> 00:41:11,799
Speaker 3: A bunch of people on vacation saw some of the

838
00:41:11,840 --> 00:41:14,400
Speaker 3: girly pops I know with their boyfriends on the road.

839
00:41:14,880 --> 00:41:15,960
Speaker 6: All right, that'll do it.

840
00:41:16,120 --> 00:41:18,120
Speaker 1: We have a lot of games that we still have

841
00:41:18,280 --> 00:41:21,040
Speaker 1: not yet to discuss, forty nine Ers Buccaneers being one

842
00:41:21,040 --> 00:41:23,839
Speaker 1: of those. How about a two touchdown favorite Green Bay

843
00:41:23,880 --> 00:41:27,640
Speaker 1: Packers taking on the disgusting Cincinnati Bengals. These are all

844
00:41:27,680 --> 00:41:31,000
Speaker 1: things that we'll get to on Thursday's episode, including our

845
00:41:31,040 --> 00:41:34,480
Speaker 1: official two Kings and a Queen parlay. That's it for

846
00:41:34,520 --> 00:41:37,400
Speaker 1: today's episode special. Thanks Deavin Abrams, we appreciate it. Go

847
00:41:37,480 --> 00:41:40,680
Speaker 1: check out the primer David Payne, Gifford Gould, our producers.

848
00:41:40,920 --> 00:41:44,040
Speaker 1: The Favorites will return on Thursday. Right here on the

849
00:41:44,040 --> 00:41:48,480
Speaker 1: Action Network YouTube page for week six best Bets. We'll

850
00:41:48,480 --> 00:41:51,760
Speaker 1: see here next time on The Favorites presented by Draft Kings,

851
00:41:52,040 --> 00:41:53,359
Speaker 1: where out Lego.

852
00:42:04,719 --> 00:42:08,200
Speaker 2: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly.

853
00:42:08,600 --> 00:42:11,440
Speaker 1: If you or someone you care about has a gambling problem,

854
00:42:11,719 --> 00:42:14,359
Speaker 1: help is available twenty four to seven at one eight

855
00:42:14,400 --> 00:42:15,200
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