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Speaker 1: What's going on everybody? Scott Bogman here for Betting Pros

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Speaker 1: to tell you my favorite picks and props for the

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Speaker 1: semi finals of the College Football Playoff. If you want

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Speaker 1: to tail my bets, I can be tailed on the

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Speaker 1: Betting Pros app or Bettingpros dot com slash Bogman. If

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Speaker 1: we take a look back to last week, I was

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Speaker 1: two and one on the picks. We got Penn State.

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Speaker 1: We got the under in the Notre Dame game, but

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Speaker 1: obviously I was surprised by ASU's performance against my Longhorns.

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Speaker 1: Did not get that when I had the team total

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Speaker 1: under nineteen and a half, but they forced overtime in

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Speaker 1: that game. The touchdowns not so great. I got the

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Speaker 1: Tyler Warren one, which was an easy, not a gimme.

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Speaker 1: He scored two touchdowns, but the odds weren't great the

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Speaker 1: other ones. Gilry didn't score, Judkinson's score for Ohio State

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Speaker 1: and de Penn State defense obviously did not get in

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Speaker 1: the end zone either. Four and three on the props,

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Speaker 1: so decent there. This week we only have two games.

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Speaker 1: I'm going to give you my only pick that I

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Speaker 1: like between these two games, and that is going to

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Speaker 1: be the under forty four and a half in the

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Speaker 1: Penn State and Notre Dame game. These teams both play

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Speaker 1: great defense, they're both run first teams, and they both

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Speaker 1: might be missing some pieces here. Abdul Carter is a

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Speaker 1: big question mark for Penn State. He is their best

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Speaker 1: player overall. He's going to be a top ten pick

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Speaker 1: in the NFL draft in twenty twenty five. He has

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Speaker 1: an arm injury. His legs will not be affected, so

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Speaker 1: I think he's going to play, but he's questionable, and

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Speaker 1: you know what level is he going to play? But

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Speaker 1: bigger for scoring in this game is Jeremiah Love, the

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Speaker 1: running back for Notre Dame, who is probably going to

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Speaker 1: be near the top of Heisman list going into next season.

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Speaker 1: Very explosive playmaker. He is probable he is going to

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Speaker 1: play in this game, but he's been in a knee

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Speaker 1: brace the entire week. His knee is clearly bothering him.

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Speaker 1: So I question whether, you know, first of all, will

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Speaker 1: he make it through this? Right, he's going to play,

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Speaker 1: He's probable, but is he going to have that same explosiveness?

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Speaker 1: Is he going to last the whole game? I think

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Speaker 1: that's a huge question. He is part of the three

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Speaker 1: headed monster at Notre Dame between himself, Jeering Price, and

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Speaker 1: of course Rightley Leonard the quarterback in that running attack

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Speaker 1: for them, Notre Dame does not like to pass the

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Speaker 1: ball right They want to run first, they want to

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Speaker 1: run heavy, they want to get behind that offensive line

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Speaker 1: and push, and that's what they've done in the first

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Speaker 1: two games. Penn State incredibly tough defense, easily the toughest

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Speaker 1: defense that Notre Dame. Well, Georgia was really tough last

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Speaker 1: week too, they just didn't have the offense to pull

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Speaker 1: it off, so I guess they shouldn't say that easily

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Speaker 1: the toughest. Georgia's defense is very very good as well,

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Speaker 1: but there were clearly one dimensional on offense and had issues.

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Speaker 1: So Notre Dame didn't really push them around, but they

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Speaker 1: did enough to win in this game. Drew aller is,

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Speaker 1: you know, he has been good. He's made some big

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Speaker 1: throws in the playoff here, but he's still I believe,

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Speaker 1: twenty six for forty seven. His completion percentage this in

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Speaker 1: the playoff is right over fifty five percent, which you know,

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Speaker 1: if you look over the entire course of the season.

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Speaker 1: Among qualified quarterbacks, there's ninety four. That would put him

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Speaker 1: at ninetieth that completion percentage. So you're in the tournament.

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Speaker 1: Your completion percentage doesn't matter. The wins matter. But in

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Speaker 1: terms of scoring, I think Notre Dame is gonna be

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Speaker 1: able to slow down Penn State. I think missing your

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Speaker 1: biggest playmaker in Jeremiah Love for Notre Dame is just

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Speaker 1: maybe too much of a loss to overcome in terms

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Speaker 1: of putting a bunch of points on the board or

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Speaker 1: running away from this. With this game, the spread is

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Speaker 1: one and a half. It's very very coin flippy game here.

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Speaker 1: I just don't really like picking a side. If I

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Speaker 1: had to pick one, it's going to be Penn State.

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Speaker 1: I think they're a little more well rounded. I think

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Speaker 1: if they get down, I think Drew Aller can play

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Speaker 1: catch up up and get them back in the game.

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Speaker 1: I don't know that Riley Leonard can do that. So

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Speaker 1: I do think for Notre Dame to win, and they're

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Speaker 1: favored and they've been strong, but for them to win,

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Speaker 1: they're gonna have to control the clock, control the ball,

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Speaker 1: and I'm just not one hundred percent confident that they'll

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Speaker 1: be able to do that against Penn State. So I

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Speaker 1: lean towards Penn State. But my favorite pick is the

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Speaker 1: under in that game. Just to go through the Cotton

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Speaker 1: Bowl here Ohio State and Texas. Ohio State is favored

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Speaker 1: by six. The total it is fifty three and a half,

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Speaker 1: and we mentioned it Trell Seth and I. When Ohio

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Speaker 1: State plays the best game, nobody can beat them. And

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Speaker 1: they have played well the last two weeks in a row.

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Speaker 1: They look very very strong. It's hard to pick against them.

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Speaker 1: I see a lot of experts, pundits, whatever you want

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Speaker 1: to call us, taking Texas in the points because I

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Speaker 1: think this is going to be closer. This is a

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Speaker 1: very very strong defense from the Longhorns that is going

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Speaker 1: to be imposing their will on Ohio State. But Jeremiah

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Speaker 1: Smith looked fairly unstoppable right now, and they had the

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Speaker 1: two headed monster running back. We just saw Arizona State

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Speaker 1: control time of possession against Texas right so you know

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Speaker 1: it may be Texas defense was gassed and tired. That's

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Speaker 1: when they started giving up points late in the game

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Speaker 1: last week. So the offense is going to need to

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Speaker 1: hold the ball. So I just I don't have a

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Speaker 1: good feel one way or the other. My favorite lean

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Speaker 1: in that game is towards the under fifty three and

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Speaker 1: a half just because these are two of the best

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Speaker 1: red zone defenses in the country. I think they are

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Speaker 1: second and third. Just two really good defenses. Overall, they

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Speaker 1: match up. Texas matches up well defensively against the Ohio

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Speaker 1: State offense. But you know, it's football, and in football,

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Speaker 1: the rules is landed towards the offense always, and their

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Speaker 1: offense seems fairly unstoppable. Will Howard would have to make mistakes,

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Speaker 1: which he's capable of. We've seen Ohio State be jeckle

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Speaker 1: and hide this season. We've seen a little bit of

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Speaker 1: that from Texas as well. So I just don't you know,

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Speaker 1: if Quinn Ewers plays like he did in the fourth

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Speaker 1: quarter and overtime, then Texas is going to win this game.

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Speaker 1: But if he plays like he did in the middle

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Speaker 1: of that game with the turnovers and the incompletions, in

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Speaker 1: Ohio State wins running away. So I have a really

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Speaker 1: good feel for the Cotton Bowl. The under in the

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Speaker 1: Orange Bowl of forty four and a half, it's going

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Speaker 1: to be my one pick. Let's go to some touchdown calls.

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Speaker 1: But before I do that, let me just remind you guys,

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Speaker 1: if you are looking to up your game in sports betting,

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Speaker 1: join our exclusive sports betting discord community at bettingpro dot

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Speaker 1: com slash Chat. Now only can you connect with expert

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Speaker 1: handicappers who provide free picks for the NBA, NFL, MLB,

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Speaker 1: college sports player props, live betting, and more, but now

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Speaker 1: you can also participate in our weekly community picks. Cast

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Speaker 1: your vote and see how your picks stack up against

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Speaker 1: the experts and track your success. All right, it's only

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Speaker 1: two games I have. I'm gonna kind of ray the

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Speaker 1: touchdown calls here, right, I think your best shots in

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Speaker 1: the Orange Bowl. Rylan Leonard is minus one fifteen. He's

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Speaker 1: gonna get a lot of rushing attempts because Jeremi Love

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Speaker 1: is probably gonna be fairly limited. We saw Tyler Warren

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Speaker 1: score two last week. He's minus one twenty. And any

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Speaker 1: of the running backs here Singleton Engineering and Prize k

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Speaker 1: Tron Allen, they're all at plus one hundred. I think

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Speaker 1: they're all pretty safe. My shot that I'll take in

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Speaker 1: this game is Jordan Fais on plus three ten. He

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Speaker 1: only has one touchdown this season, but which is why

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Speaker 1: this number is good and you're tripling up your money here.

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Speaker 1: But he's had eleven catches in his last two games.

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Speaker 1: He has twenty six catches on the season, so only

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Speaker 1: seventeen going to the tournament, and they just made him

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Speaker 1: a more consistent target. I think he's gonna get some

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Speaker 1: short passes. I'm gonna pick him to go over his

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Speaker 1: receiving prop as well, So we'll get to that in

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Speaker 1: a minute. But I really do like what Jordan face

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Speaker 1: On is done in the tournament here. So on the

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Speaker 1: Cotton Bowl, some of these touchdown calls, like the numbers

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Speaker 1: you're getting are just bad. Jeremiah Smith is like minus

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Speaker 1: one ninety five, not very good. So a couple of

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Speaker 1: the easy ones and Mechai Buca minus one fifteen, Marcus

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Speaker 1: Golden or Matthew Golden excuse me for Texas plus one

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Speaker 1: twenty five. Those are fairly easy ones, along with you

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Speaker 1: know the other ones that I mentioned. So if you're

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Speaker 1: like on underdog, you're on prize picks or something, you're

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Speaker 1: pairing those those are pretty easy. But if you're playing

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Speaker 1: for cash and you're looking to double up your money,

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Speaker 1: Gunner Hell plus one ninety five, DeAndre Moore plus three

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Speaker 1: ninety the tight end for Texas. The wide receiver for

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Speaker 1: Texas Gunnarhelm. We saw score in overtime last week. He's

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Speaker 1: a dangerous, dangerous red zone threat. I think he can

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Speaker 1: easily be, you know, catch a touchdown in this game.

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Speaker 1: DeAndre Moore I like at plus three fifty because I

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Speaker 1: believe he's going to be on the field a little

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Speaker 1: bit more. Isaiah Bond cannot block to save his life.

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Speaker 1: He's also playing at less than one hundred percent, So

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Speaker 1: I think More has a shot to get in the

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Speaker 1: end zone here just because he's gonna see more time.

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Speaker 1: And plus three fifties number I like for Ohio State.

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Speaker 1: I mean the running backs jacked up, Jeremiah Smith jacked up, right,

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Speaker 1: So we're gonna go with a couple receiving options outside

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Speaker 1: of Agbuca. Carnl Tate is plus two to fifty. The

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Speaker 1: wide receiver hasn't had a lot of work in the tournament,

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Speaker 1: but they haven't needed to pass the ball a ton,

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Speaker 1: especially late. If this game is more competitive, as I

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Speaker 1: kind of think it's going to be in their first

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Speaker 1: two games, then he is going to see a decent

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Speaker 1: amount of targets. Gee Scott the tight end is plus

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Speaker 1: three twenty not a lot of action for him, but

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Speaker 1: Texas has been pretty bad against a tight end all

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Speaker 1: year long. Let's go to some of these props, not

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Speaker 1: a ton the passing ones I just don't like. I

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Speaker 1: don't like because we have four strong defenses here. I'll

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Speaker 1: go with Quinn Eewers over two forty four and a

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Speaker 1: half because Texas has, you know, the longest odds of

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Speaker 1: any of these teams. Here, they're plus six, so they

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Speaker 1: should be playing for behind, passing the ball a little bit.

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Speaker 1: And two forty four and a half is a low

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Speaker 1: total for a you know, even against a bad, really

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Speaker 1: really good defense, because they should be playing from behind,

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Speaker 1: and if they shut down the running game, Quinn are

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Speaker 1: just gonna have to make it happen. So two forty

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Speaker 1: four and a half I think is a doable number.

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Speaker 1: I didn't like the other ones. For the other three

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Speaker 1: quarterbacks rushing totals, I'm gonna spray four here. We're gonna

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Speaker 1: go Nick Singleton penn Sy running back over fifty eight

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Speaker 1: and a half. He's hit this five games in a row.

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Speaker 1: He has a long of at least fifteen in all

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Speaker 1: five of those games. So twelve carries for Singleton and

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Speaker 1: I think he gets over this, and I think that

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Speaker 1: is very doable. We're gonna go to Jjerium Price in

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Speaker 1: our name running back over forty four and a half.

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Speaker 1: It's a low total. Again, these are very good defenses,

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Speaker 1: so these totals are low, but with love at less

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Speaker 1: than one hundred percent, he might see a season high

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Speaker 1: end carries, which twelve has been the most he's had

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Speaker 1: in this season. I think maybe Riley Leonard two. The

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Speaker 1: reason I don't like the Riley Leonard total is because

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Speaker 1: sackyards count against the quarterbacks in college. So if Penn

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Speaker 1: State does get up, it could be something like you know, right,

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Speaker 1: Leonard's broken off a big one is already has somebody

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Speaker 1: gets sacked two times, and now he loses those rushing yards.

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Speaker 1: So I'm going to pass on Ryland Leonard in this game.

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Speaker 1: But in the in the Cotton Bowl when Travian Weiser,

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Speaker 1: I'm gonna go right back to a fifty seven and

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Speaker 1: a half yards. Didn't get it last week, but he's

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Speaker 1: still getting a lot of carries. Cameron Williams, the right

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Speaker 1: tackle was out. I think he's likely to play in

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Speaker 1: this game. He's been practicing a bunch much better run

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Speaker 1: blocker than Gooseby. Kevin Banks is going to play as well.

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Speaker 1: Time of possession was just firmly in ASU's hands last

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Speaker 1: week and Wisner just didn't get the ball. So I

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Speaker 1: think they'll try to even that out this week and

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Speaker 1: he'll get it. On the Ohio State side, I think

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Speaker 1: Travion Henderson's total of forty five and a half rushing

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Speaker 1: yards is way too low. Texas couldn't top Cam Scatibow

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Speaker 1: last week, and time of possession was in an ASU's favor.

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Speaker 1: If it goes to Ohio State, they're going to run

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Speaker 1: the ball at decent out so forty five and a

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Speaker 1: half rushing yards I think that prop is too low.

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Speaker 1: I have five receiving props for you as well, so

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Speaker 1: we're doing way more on the props then on the picks.

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Speaker 1: I wanted to give you a little more since they

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Speaker 1: only had the one pick here, So on these props

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Speaker 1: we're going over on Faison. We talked about that already.

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Speaker 1: Thirty eight and a half yards is his. He's had

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Speaker 1: a ton of targets and eleven catches over the last

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Speaker 1: two games. They probably have some designed short yardage passes

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Speaker 1: for him to try to pull those corners in safeties

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Speaker 1: back a little bit, specifically early in the game to

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Speaker 1: loosen up things for the run games. So I like

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Speaker 1: that total for him. Mitchell Evans, the Notre Dame tight end,

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Speaker 1: It's the same type of strategy here, right. The fact

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Speaker 1: is that Riley Leonard is probably going to be spied.

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Speaker 1: Kobe King is probably going to be looking at him

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Speaker 1: a lot. We've seen their safeties drop down in the

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Speaker 1: box a lot to stop the run. So Mitchell Evans

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Speaker 1: could have a clear lane in His total is twenty

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Speaker 1: seven and a half yards. I mean he could get

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Speaker 1: that on two to three catches. So I think that

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Speaker 1: one is another good one for the Cotton Bowl. I'm

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Speaker 1: gonna go with two Buckeys on low totals. Carneal Tate

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Speaker 1: we mentioned before for a touchdown thirty four and a

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Speaker 1: half receiving yards. They didn't really need him in the

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Speaker 1: game against Tennessee or Oregon here in the playoff, and

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Speaker 1: Jedi Barron is going to be on Jeremiah Smith, hopefully

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Speaker 1: slowing him down for my sake, But who knows if

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Speaker 1: anybody can slow down Jeremiah Smith. But if they do

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Speaker 1: roll coverage that way and things aren't happening. I think

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Speaker 1: like Buka, I think Tate, I think Gee Scott. I

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Speaker 1: think the running backs, They're all going to be in

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Speaker 1: line for more targets and catches. So I really like

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Speaker 1: that one. At thirty four and a half yards, I

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Speaker 1: think that's very, very doable for Carneal Tate. Gee Scott's

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Speaker 1: total is fourteen and a half for Ohio State the

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Speaker 1: tight end. That's a catch, that's one catch, maybe two,

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Speaker 1: So I believe his prop is over one and a half. Again,

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Speaker 1: if this game is a little more back and forth

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Speaker 1: than the other two games that Ohio State has been playing,

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Speaker 1: they will have to pass while more and these guys

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Speaker 1: will open up. And the last one I have for

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Speaker 1: you is Ryan Wingo, the Texas wide receiver over twenty

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Speaker 1: three and a half receiving yards. He usually makes big

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Speaker 1: plays and he's going to be on the field a

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Speaker 1: ton in this game because he blocks better than any

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Speaker 1: other Texas wide receiver. So those are my picks and

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Speaker 1: props for the semifinals. Good luck to all of you.

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Speaker 1: Remember to tail me on betting pros and I will

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Speaker 1: see you for the Natty next week. Good luck everybody.

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Speaker 2: Thanks for listening to the Betting Pros Podcast. If you

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