WEBVTT - From the Vault: Astronomical Suffering and the Terran Diaspora

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<v Speaker 1>Hey, welcome to stuff to blow your mind. This is

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<v Speaker 1>Robert Lamb and I'm Joe McCormick, and today it's a

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<v Speaker 1>vault episode. This one originally aired April. It was called

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<v Speaker 1>Astronomical Suffering and the Terran Diaspora. I think this one

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<v Speaker 1>was about a bunch of weird thought experiments about like

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<v Speaker 1>how many humans there could ultimately be and how miserable

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<v Speaker 1>it would be okay for them to be in the

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<v Speaker 1>far reaches of space. Yeah, so it's, uh, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>it's it's a darker episode, but it's it's big darkness

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<v Speaker 1>and not like like like small sort of relatable darkness.

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<v Speaker 1>For the most part. We hope you enjoy. You've finally

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<v Speaker 1>done it. For so long, the solution alluded to you.

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<v Speaker 1>You explored every angle and pursued the answer in the

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<v Speaker 1>waking world of mathematics and the fragmented landscape of dreams.

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<v Speaker 1>But here it is this erinny An engine, a functional

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<v Speaker 1>technological means of transporting humanity not only at greater speeds

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<v Speaker 1>between planets, but two other stars. You fall to your

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<v Speaker 1>knees before it's golden splendor. You swipe through the air

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<v Speaker 1>at your side and summon a holographic keypad. It's time

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<v Speaker 1>to tell the corporation what you've achieved. But before you

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<v Speaker 1>can initiate the command, the air shimmers with a strange energy.

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<v Speaker 1>A flash of panic burns through you as you fear

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<v Speaker 1>some unforeseen side effect of the engine's power, reality parts,

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<v Speaker 1>and a glowing figure slips through the incision. It speaks

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<v Speaker 1>to you in a voice like a whisper. Professor, what

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<v Speaker 1>are you? I am the messenger from the future age,

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<v Speaker 1>come to warn you impossible, paradoxical, no more so than

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<v Speaker 1>your engine. It must be destroyed. Then you have come

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<v Speaker 1>to kill me. I cannot, but you can be Activate

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<v Speaker 1>this machine, scatter its plans to the four winds, and

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<v Speaker 1>leave the future untarnished by its power. But why should

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<v Speaker 1>I do that? I built it to open up the cosmos,

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<v Speaker 1>to spread humanity beyond Earth, to safeguard us against destruction,

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<v Speaker 1>and in doing so create hell worlds beyond number places

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<v Speaker 1>with the descendants of humanity writhe and poverty, misery and pain.

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<v Speaker 1>The mass of their collective suffering dwarfs all of humanity's

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<v Speaker 1>achievements in my time, reducing the human experience to a

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<v Speaker 1>median of immoral horror. And I know, for I have

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<v Speaker 1>walked the mire and ruin of each world. I have

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<v Speaker 1>looked into their eyes. And I ask you now, in

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<v Speaker 1>the hope that no one else will retrace your steps,

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<v Speaker 1>to please turn off the machine. Welcome to Stuff to

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<v Speaker 1>Blow Your Mind production of My Heart Radio. Hey you,

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<v Speaker 1>welcome to Stuff to Blow your Mind. My name is

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<v Speaker 1>Robert Lamb and I'm Joe McCormick. And today we wanted

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<v Speaker 1>to talk about the question of, hey, what if we

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<v Speaker 1>accidentally turn the Milky Way into a living hell? That's right, you,

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<v Speaker 1>We're getting into this topic um of astronomical suffering. And

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<v Speaker 1>we we tried to make sure the title had a

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<v Speaker 1>spin of far future science fiction to it, and we

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<v Speaker 1>decided to kick things off with a nice hefty slice

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<v Speaker 1>of original sci fi uh to, you know, to firmly

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<v Speaker 1>ground the conversation, because this is gonna be a conversation

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<v Speaker 1>that gets into a lot of far future territory, speculative

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<v Speaker 1>science fiction territory, but ultimately wrestling with some some real

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<v Speaker 1>philosophical considerations about the nature of humanity and and how

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<v Speaker 1>we go about our decision making. Yeah, so, one thing

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<v Speaker 1>that this topic makes me think about, maybe a good

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<v Speaker 1>place to start is how much of few sure thinking

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<v Speaker 1>among people, you know, people who like to think about

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<v Speaker 1>the far future, just assumes space colonization as a given, like,

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<v Speaker 1>does not interrogate the idea at all, does not say, like,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, would it be good to colonize other planets,

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<v Speaker 1>other star systems and stuff. It just assumes, yeah, I mean,

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<v Speaker 1>of course that's what you do. Humans. You know, they

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<v Speaker 1>spread over the surface of the Earth, and now they'll

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<v Speaker 1>keep spreading on into other little rocks in space. But

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<v Speaker 1>the science fiction was so concerned with the question of

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<v Speaker 1>whether or not it could it didn't stop to think

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<v Speaker 1>of it should. Yes, the the Ean Malcolm uh factor

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<v Speaker 1>often features into our conversations here because yeah, for for many,

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<v Speaker 1>if not most of us, colonization of other worlds has

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<v Speaker 1>kind of always seemed humanity's destiny. And you know, part

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<v Speaker 1>of it is simply the extrapolation of our terrestrial ideals

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<v Speaker 1>and ambitions and just the sort of flow of of

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<v Speaker 1>world history. We're just taking that in applying it to

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<v Speaker 1>other worlds. Are species spread from continent to continent, finally

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<v Speaker 1>overtaking every last uh, you know, truly habitable island in

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<v Speaker 1>the global ocean. And so we've long dreamt a voyaging

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<v Speaker 1>off planet to whatever islands of life or potential life

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<v Speaker 1>we might find or create in this cosmic ocean. Now,

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<v Speaker 1>I know most of you consume science fiction, so we

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<v Speaker 1>don't have to tell you how pervasive the dream happens

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<v Speaker 1>to be. You know, Star Trek continues to stand as

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<v Speaker 1>a towering, optimistic example of how this might play out,

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<v Speaker 1>but we also see it in all manner of sci

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<v Speaker 1>fi visions, you know, from the near future, gritty world

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<v Speaker 1>of something like the expanse or altered carbon you know,

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<v Speaker 1>to far reaching worlds like done Star Wars, the Culture Series,

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<v Speaker 1>and many, many, many more. I think Dune might be

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<v Speaker 1>a good example for us to keep in mind throughout

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<v Speaker 1>this episode, though, because while I don't recall in Dune

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<v Speaker 1>there being much of a question about the general project

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<v Speaker 1>of colonizing worlds other than the humanity's origin on Earth,

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<v Speaker 1>um doing at least does present a vision of a

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<v Speaker 1>planet that is both inhabited and completely crappy, just completely

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<v Speaker 1>inhospitable in every way, like we shouldn't be there, and

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<v Speaker 1>yet we're there because we have to be now and done.

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<v Speaker 1>That's because of demand for a particular resource that's only

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<v Speaker 1>generated on this planet, but you can imagine other scenarios

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<v Speaker 1>where there could be a planet that's are just really

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<v Speaker 1>not hospitable to human life in any way, except we

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<v Speaker 1>just have to be there, maybe because it is the

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<v Speaker 1>only rock that we can stand on within reach. Yeah.

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<v Speaker 1>And there's also that kind of Nietzschean quality to some

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<v Speaker 1>of the world's too, like because there's of course Iracus,

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<v Speaker 1>and then there's the home world of the Sarticle or

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<v Speaker 1>the the you know, the elite soldiers of the Empire,

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<v Speaker 1>which is described as a quote unquote hell world. The

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<v Speaker 1>idea that it's just so brutal there that it it

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<v Speaker 1>creates the super soldiers, and of course Aracus creates their

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<v Speaker 1>own eat Um fighting force as well. Uh So, Yeah,

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<v Speaker 1>I think Dune is a great one to continually return

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<v Speaker 1>to the I think the world of the Sardi Car

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<v Speaker 1>Troops come from. It's supposed to be sort of like

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<v Speaker 1>the planet where the superman villain Doomsday comes from, right

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<v Speaker 1>where it's just like made stronger and stronger by by

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<v Speaker 1>being subjected to every form of punishment and suffering day

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<v Speaker 1>in day out. Yes, yeah, exactly, and and that that

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<v Speaker 1>idea is covered in I think some other works as well.

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<v Speaker 1>I know, uh in in Banks in the Culture series

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<v Speaker 1>has a has a species it shows up that is

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<v Speaker 1>biologically immortal, and part of that is tied to the

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<v Speaker 1>fact that it emerges from such a hostile and competitive ecosystem.

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<v Speaker 1>Uh that, like natural death was just never part of

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<v Speaker 1>its of its physiology, you know. I will say there's

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<v Speaker 1>another science fiction book that I've talked about on the

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<v Speaker 1>show before. I think I recommended it one year for

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<v Speaker 1>summer reading that I really enjoyed, specifically because it asks

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<v Speaker 1>a question along these lines. It's uh, Kim Stanley Robinson's

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<v Speaker 1>novel Aurora, which is about Generation starship that has a

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<v Speaker 1>colonization mission, um, you know, trying to go to another

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<v Speaker 1>star system and colonize another habitable planet. But a big

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<v Speaker 1>theme of that book is the question of just like

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<v Speaker 1>how how special Earth might be and ways in which

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<v Speaker 1>we we don't realize that leaving Earth is just abandoning

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<v Speaker 1>everything that we depend upon and everything that makes life good.

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<v Speaker 1>And so ultimately there is kind of a question in

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<v Speaker 1>the book like, well, maybe should we should we actually

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<v Speaker 1>have our sight set on other planets, Maybe there's something

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<v Speaker 1>inescapably perfect about Earth, and instead we should focus on

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<v Speaker 1>making Earth as habitable as possible for as long as possible.

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<v Speaker 1>Um and and I remember, I think reading some reviews

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<v Speaker 1>of this book that criticized it essentially as being like

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<v Speaker 1>pessimistic and a down er for for in some ways

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<v Speaker 1>being characterized as anti space exploration, which I'm not sure

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<v Speaker 1>the book exactly is, but it at least explores possibilities

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<v Speaker 1>in that space, which I which I think is fascinating

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<v Speaker 1>and very worth considering. Yeah, I think the and and

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<v Speaker 1>you know, actually a Christian and I record an episode

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<v Speaker 1>years ago called the Case Against Space that went into

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<v Speaker 1>some cases that could be made against spending time and

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<v Speaker 1>resources and money on on space exploration, you know, just

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<v Speaker 1>to explore the other side. But but I think that

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<v Speaker 1>one thing we get into here is the kind of

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<v Speaker 1>like soft futurism that we sometimes engage in, like without

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<v Speaker 1>really thinking long and hard about the rigors of creating

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<v Speaker 1>an off world colony, of say, colonizing and terraforming Mars.

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<v Speaker 1>You just kind of tuck it away in the back

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<v Speaker 1>of your mind, is like, oh, well, we have a

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<v Speaker 1>plan B and and and and in reality we we

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<v Speaker 1>don't really have a plan B. There is no earth

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<v Speaker 1>to um you were talking about very um inhospitable worlds,

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<v Speaker 1>extreme environments, places that are even the closest uh locations,

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<v Speaker 1>we could go to our far far away and and

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<v Speaker 1>we've touched on the the like the challenges of of

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<v Speaker 1>Mars on the show before. But it's it's a danger

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<v Speaker 1>to to just sort of categorize that casually in the

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<v Speaker 1>back of your head, is like a reason to not

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<v Speaker 1>fully invest in the health of this planet. Yeah, totally. Uh, Yeah,

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<v Speaker 1>you don't want to be going around thinking like, well,

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<v Speaker 1>we got a backup plan. Yeah, I mean, long term

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<v Speaker 1>we might, but that is in no way a guarantee. Yeah,

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<v Speaker 1>but but I do want to stress that, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>speaking for myself, I certainly still buy into this this future.

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<v Speaker 1>I think it is an optimistic vision for the future

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<v Speaker 1>for the most part. But like all all things considering

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<v Speaker 1>the future, you know, we have to we have to

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<v Speaker 1>have a balance of optism and realism, and you have

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<v Speaker 1>to entertain some of the worst case scenarios as well.

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<v Speaker 1>Oh totally. I mean I want to be clear that

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<v Speaker 1>in talking about this today, we're not trying to make

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<v Speaker 1>the case that space colonization is bad. We're just saying

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<v Speaker 1>here are some questions to consider exactly. Yeah, because I

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<v Speaker 1>think a large part of this whole dream's vision of

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<v Speaker 1>expanding to other worlds, it's based in humanity's innate desire

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<v Speaker 1>to explore and expand. It's our scientific zeal, uh, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>and this is part of what makes humanity great. Though

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<v Speaker 1>it also leaches into our vanity and pride and more

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<v Speaker 1>to the point, it is an eventuality that our space

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<v Speaker 1>programs continue to work towards, you know, such dreams, uh,

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<v Speaker 1>sci fi visions have animated the best minds among us

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<v Speaker 1>for decades and decades, and it seems ultimately a question

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<v Speaker 1>of when, not if a human being will, for instance,

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<v Speaker 1>ever stand on the surface of Mars. Well. I think

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<v Speaker 1>another reason that the idea of space exploration is so

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<v Speaker 1>popular among like optimistic future thinking people is like it

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<v Speaker 1>seems like it is the half of adventure that is

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<v Speaker 1>not that is not antagonistic and violent. I mean, I

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<v Speaker 1>would say adventure has two main components. One is like

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<v Speaker 1>exploration and discovery and the other is kind of this

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<v Speaker 1>violent on quest thing. And you know, and we like

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<v Speaker 1>the sense of adventure, but maybe we we want a

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<v Speaker 1>way to have adventure that doesn't involve subjugation and violent

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<v Speaker 1>conquest of whatever you find when you get somewhere, and so, uh,

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<v Speaker 1>the and so space exploration seems like a perfect candidate

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<v Speaker 1>for that kind of spirit of adventure, right to fulfill

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<v Speaker 1>that drive without doing something harmful. Maybe they're there are

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<v Speaker 1>these dead rocks out in the universe that we could

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<v Speaker 1>adventure too, and we could explore without having to make

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<v Speaker 1>it into a struggle of conquest in war. Does that

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<v Speaker 1>make sense? Yeah? Absolutely, yeah, Now certainly, you know, there's

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<v Speaker 1>sci fi visions that that drag those elements in, and

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<v Speaker 1>as we'll discuss, there are some It's it's not that

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<v Speaker 1>that space colonization is a risk free venture. It's not

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<v Speaker 1>like they're there are not things that we could potentially

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<v Speaker 1>break while out there. But but yeah, it does seem

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<v Speaker 1>an optimum miss. The idea of exploring Mars, for the

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<v Speaker 1>most part, seems far less full of conflict and horror

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<v Speaker 1>than say, uh, you know Europeans history of exploring the

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<v Speaker 1>New World right now. Another huge angle to this, though,

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<v Speaker 1>is uh is that there is this idea that humanity

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<v Speaker 1>must eventually leave Earth in order to survive long term

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<v Speaker 1>in a dangerous universe and to thwart various existential risks.

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<v Speaker 1>Stephen Hawking was an advocate of this line of thinking,

0:13:22.120 --> 0:13:26.079
<v Speaker 1>among many others. Yeah, I mean, Stephen Hawking is not

0:13:26.240 --> 0:13:29.120
<v Speaker 1>wrong in saying this. I mean there are risks to

0:13:29.320 --> 0:13:33.480
<v Speaker 1>Earth and uh, here's here's an analogy maybe for for

0:13:33.520 --> 0:13:36.480
<v Speaker 1>people who are trying to like plan the retirement savings

0:13:36.600 --> 0:13:38.920
<v Speaker 1>or whatever. Is it good to put all of your

0:13:38.920 --> 0:13:43.960
<v Speaker 1>retirement savings in the stock of one company. Any any

0:13:44.000 --> 0:13:46.640
<v Speaker 1>investment manager or whatever would tell you don't do that.

0:13:46.720 --> 0:13:49.920
<v Speaker 1>You need to diversify your investments in order to make

0:13:49.960 --> 0:13:52.240
<v Speaker 1>sure that you know your that your money is safe.

0:13:52.760 --> 0:13:55.040
<v Speaker 1>You've got to invest in multiple different things, because if

0:13:55.080 --> 0:13:58.440
<v Speaker 1>something bad happens to one company and you're totally invested there,

0:13:58.480 --> 0:14:01.520
<v Speaker 1>you could lose everything. Some people, I think, look at

0:14:01.920 --> 0:14:04.840
<v Speaker 1>you know, the planetary habitation of humans in the long term,

0:14:04.880 --> 0:14:08.680
<v Speaker 1>the same way catastrophic things can happen to planets. There

0:14:08.760 --> 0:14:13.000
<v Speaker 1>there can be catastrophic changes to the biosphere of a planet.

0:14:13.440 --> 0:14:16.960
<v Speaker 1>And so if you don't spread out to other planets

0:14:17.000 --> 0:14:20.720
<v Speaker 1>over time, the risk just keeps accumulating more and more

0:14:20.880 --> 0:14:23.560
<v Speaker 1>that something is going to happen that will cause us

0:14:23.560 --> 0:14:26.560
<v Speaker 1>to blink out of existence. Yeah, and we discussed many

0:14:26.560 --> 0:14:28.960
<v Speaker 1>of these on the show Before you Know Things such

0:14:29.000 --> 0:14:34.760
<v Speaker 1>as near Earth objects potentially colliding with the planet, also

0:14:35.480 --> 0:14:39.360
<v Speaker 1>things bound to human technology like climate change, nuclear war,

0:14:39.880 --> 0:14:44.320
<v Speaker 1>and in other various examples, some some more futuristic than others,

0:14:45.360 --> 0:14:50.360
<v Speaker 1>but most given known potential existential risk, you know with

0:14:50.440 --> 0:14:52.320
<v Speaker 1>them there are there are certainly ways to attempt to

0:14:52.320 --> 0:14:54.880
<v Speaker 1>safeguard against them, at least as far as it's ones

0:14:54.920 --> 0:14:58.360
<v Speaker 1>that are technologically within our limits of control. Uh, Now,

0:14:58.400 --> 0:15:01.960
<v Speaker 1>can we control ourselves? Are? Arguably yes, that's possible, even

0:15:02.000 --> 0:15:03.960
<v Speaker 1>if it tends to not be the case a lot

0:15:04.040 --> 0:15:06.680
<v Speaker 1>of the time in human affairs. Can we track and

0:15:06.760 --> 0:15:09.880
<v Speaker 1>mitigate incoming in eos, Yeah, we're continuing to improve our

0:15:09.920 --> 0:15:12.760
<v Speaker 1>capabilities in that department. But as we get into long

0:15:12.880 --> 0:15:15.800
<v Speaker 1>term concerns about say the life of the sun, we'd

0:15:15.880 --> 0:15:18.800
<v Speaker 1>really need to be higher on the Karda Chef scale

0:15:18.800 --> 0:15:21.400
<v Speaker 1>to do anything about it. And then there's also the

0:15:21.440 --> 0:15:25.040
<v Speaker 1>issue of outside context problems, which is a which are

0:15:25.040 --> 0:15:29.880
<v Speaker 1>problems that by definition a civilization cannot anticipate. As I

0:15:30.000 --> 0:15:32.440
<v Speaker 1>and in Banks explained in the in his book Accession,

0:15:32.960 --> 0:15:36.240
<v Speaker 1>which is where the term was coined, most civilizations encounter

0:15:36.680 --> 0:15:40.520
<v Speaker 1>just a one outside context problem, and that is what

0:15:40.600 --> 0:15:43.080
<v Speaker 1>does them in Now you might be thinking, well, wait

0:15:43.080 --> 0:15:45.680
<v Speaker 1>a minute, what's an example of an outside context problem.

0:15:45.720 --> 0:15:47.720
<v Speaker 1>I guess the definition of it would be that it's

0:15:47.760 --> 0:15:50.520
<v Speaker 1>something that we're not really envisioning right now. But maybe

0:15:50.920 --> 0:15:53.720
<v Speaker 1>the easiest example would be an encounter with a with

0:15:53.800 --> 0:15:59.080
<v Speaker 1>a totally uh incomprehensible alien species or something. Yeah. Yeah,

0:15:59.120 --> 0:16:02.400
<v Speaker 1>that that's that's the big one. UM And certainly like

0:16:02.480 --> 0:16:04.840
<v Speaker 1>one example that is often thrown out. I think Banks

0:16:04.840 --> 0:16:07.960
<v Speaker 1>made this uh analogy as well, is if you are

0:16:08.280 --> 0:16:11.480
<v Speaker 1>one of the native people's of say South America, and

0:16:11.520 --> 0:16:14.560
<v Speaker 1>then European show up on your shore in these in

0:16:14.600 --> 0:16:17.960
<v Speaker 1>these ships with horses and all this technology. Um, it

0:16:18.120 --> 0:16:21.240
<v Speaker 1>is not something they anticipated. And there were and there

0:16:21.240 --> 0:16:24.080
<v Speaker 1>were other aspects of that problem that they just could

0:16:24.080 --> 0:16:28.520
<v Speaker 1>not anticipate, say the disease factor, and uh and they ultimately,

0:16:28.560 --> 0:16:31.440
<v Speaker 1>I mean they it's not that they were completely wiped out,

0:16:31.480 --> 0:16:35.800
<v Speaker 1>but obviously that whole situation was was an apocalypse for

0:16:35.840 --> 0:16:38.480
<v Speaker 1>the peoples of the New World. But another thing we

0:16:38.480 --> 0:16:40.720
<v Speaker 1>should emphasize again that you just mentioned a second ago,

0:16:40.840 --> 0:16:42.760
<v Speaker 1>is that, I mean, one thing we can be sure of,

0:16:42.840 --> 0:16:45.760
<v Speaker 1>even if we don't encounter any outside context problems is

0:16:45.800 --> 0:16:49.120
<v Speaker 1>there's basically an expiration date for life on Earth. That

0:16:49.160 --> 0:16:52.040
<v Speaker 1>has nothing to do with like stochastic events like a

0:16:52.080 --> 0:16:54.800
<v Speaker 1>near Earth object impacts or something. It's just going to

0:16:54.880 --> 0:16:57.760
<v Speaker 1>be the the lifespan of the Sun. Eventually, the Sun

0:16:58.200 --> 0:17:00.120
<v Speaker 1>is going to swell, it's going to turn into a

0:17:00.680 --> 0:17:03.400
<v Speaker 1>red giant, and and Earth will get too hot to

0:17:03.520 --> 0:17:06.560
<v Speaker 1>live on there. There will be no life here anymore. Yeah,

0:17:06.640 --> 0:17:08.439
<v Speaker 1>and and a lot of times this can seem like

0:17:08.560 --> 0:17:11.440
<v Speaker 1>ridiculous to worry about, right, but like, come on, humanity,

0:17:11.520 --> 0:17:15.320
<v Speaker 1>let's let's get through July. Uh, probably about the long

0:17:15.920 --> 0:17:18.560
<v Speaker 1>term survival of the human race and what happens when

0:17:18.800 --> 0:17:21.080
<v Speaker 1>when the Sun burns out of energy. I mean, we

0:17:21.440 --> 0:17:25.920
<v Speaker 1>think the habitable Earth is already probably more than halfway

0:17:25.920 --> 0:17:27.840
<v Speaker 1>through its lifespan. You know, Earth is about four and

0:17:27.840 --> 0:17:31.600
<v Speaker 1>a half billion years old, probably within um. You know,

0:17:31.640 --> 0:17:33.119
<v Speaker 1>it's hard to put an exact number on it, but

0:17:33.160 --> 0:17:35.879
<v Speaker 1>I think something like four billion years from now, we

0:17:35.920 --> 0:17:38.440
<v Speaker 1>can be pretty sure that that Earth is just gonna

0:17:38.440 --> 0:17:40.840
<v Speaker 1>be done like that. There will be no more life

0:17:40.840 --> 0:17:43.680
<v Speaker 1>here at that point. It will just be too hot. Now,

0:17:43.880 --> 0:17:46.359
<v Speaker 1>four billion years is a long time, right, you know

0:17:46.440 --> 0:17:48.879
<v Speaker 1>that that was enough time to for single cells to

0:17:48.920 --> 0:17:52.640
<v Speaker 1>evolve into humans who are capable of appreciating the RoboCop movies,

0:17:52.760 --> 0:17:55.720
<v Speaker 1>you know, So like, uh, it is a long time.

0:17:55.760 --> 0:17:57.720
<v Speaker 1>It's not like something you need to worry about tomorrow.

0:17:57.760 --> 0:17:59.919
<v Speaker 1>But at the same time, if you are trying to

0:18:00.040 --> 0:18:03.120
<v Speaker 1>imagine the far future, something would have to happen if

0:18:03.200 --> 0:18:05.920
<v Speaker 1>we wanted to go on beyond that point. Yeah, and

0:18:06.240 --> 0:18:09.480
<v Speaker 1>I think that's reasonable though also, of course it is

0:18:09.520 --> 0:18:13.159
<v Speaker 1>we are talking about the far future. Um. So in

0:18:13.200 --> 0:18:16.760
<v Speaker 1>this episode we thought we'd explore some of the moral

0:18:16.960 --> 0:18:21.640
<v Speaker 1>arguments that are ultimately against the colonization of other worlds.

0:18:21.960 --> 0:18:24.520
<v Speaker 1>The concern, again, too, to quote Ian Malcolm, is not

0:18:24.720 --> 0:18:26.919
<v Speaker 1>can we do it? But should we do it? What

0:18:26.960 --> 0:18:31.960
<v Speaker 1>would the moral cost be uh to a true Taran diaspora,

0:18:32.160 --> 0:18:35.400
<v Speaker 1>if we were to expand beyond the earth, what would

0:18:35.440 --> 0:18:37.840
<v Speaker 1>it cost us? And would it be worth it? What

0:18:37.920 --> 0:18:40.359
<v Speaker 1>are some of the philosophical concerns here? Well, maybe we

0:18:40.359 --> 0:18:41.920
<v Speaker 1>should take a quick break and then when we come

0:18:41.920 --> 0:18:46.840
<v Speaker 1>back we can talk about them. All right, we're back.

0:18:47.200 --> 0:18:50.359
<v Speaker 1>So one of the key factors in this entire discussion

0:18:51.040 --> 0:18:54.560
<v Speaker 1>has to do with the morality of human existence and

0:18:54.560 --> 0:18:55.840
<v Speaker 1>and what you might think of a sort of the

0:18:55.880 --> 0:18:59.760
<v Speaker 1>media and human condition. Uh. So consider this question. Is

0:19:00.040 --> 0:19:05.119
<v Speaker 1>human existence on average a reality worth sustaining and propagating? Uh?

0:19:05.160 --> 0:19:07.359
<v Speaker 1>You know, I know obviously it's it's not like we

0:19:07.400 --> 0:19:10.280
<v Speaker 1>could do anything but that, I mean, that's what life does.

0:19:10.720 --> 0:19:13.440
<v Speaker 1>And we are we are life. No matter how self

0:19:13.480 --> 0:19:16.600
<v Speaker 1>aware we've become or how you know, self aware we've

0:19:16.600 --> 0:19:19.359
<v Speaker 1>come to believe we are, we are still just we

0:19:19.440 --> 0:19:22.560
<v Speaker 1>are life and life propagates. Yeah, and there are, of

0:19:22.600 --> 0:19:26.080
<v Speaker 1>course people who believe, you know, that humans should voluntarily

0:19:26.119 --> 0:19:28.399
<v Speaker 1>go extinct. That is actually a point of view some

0:19:28.440 --> 0:19:31.080
<v Speaker 1>people have. I kind of and I don't mean to

0:19:31.200 --> 0:19:34.000
<v Speaker 1>question everyone who says this, but with at least some

0:19:34.119 --> 0:19:36.840
<v Speaker 1>of the people who say that, I kind of question

0:19:36.920 --> 0:19:39.640
<v Speaker 1>their sincerity. I mean with some of the people who

0:19:39.680 --> 0:19:42.720
<v Speaker 1>say that, I think they're probably just saying that to

0:19:42.880 --> 0:19:46.240
<v Speaker 1>be interesting or to be shocking, not because they really

0:19:46.280 --> 0:19:50.200
<v Speaker 1>believe humans should disappear, right, or to sort of expt

0:19:50.280 --> 0:19:52.800
<v Speaker 1>to over express a sentiment, you know, yeah, to to

0:19:52.880 --> 0:19:55.640
<v Speaker 1>sort of drive home a point like like I think

0:19:55.680 --> 0:19:58.679
<v Speaker 1>I've probably in the past, I've probably said something to

0:19:58.680 --> 0:20:01.080
<v Speaker 1>the effect that I would I would be totally cool

0:20:01.119 --> 0:20:03.639
<v Speaker 1>with the with the male gender going extinct and the

0:20:04.080 --> 0:20:08.919
<v Speaker 1>species becoming exclusively female. Um. But you know, now I

0:20:08.960 --> 0:20:11.880
<v Speaker 1>have a son, and uh, you know I can't rationally

0:20:11.880 --> 0:20:14.639
<v Speaker 1>make that argument, you know, um, and it and it

0:20:14.720 --> 0:20:17.880
<v Speaker 1>was ultimately, you know, not a completely rational argument. Maybe

0:20:17.960 --> 0:20:20.400
<v Speaker 1>you know, a little attention seeking and a little uh,

0:20:20.440 --> 0:20:24.200
<v Speaker 1>you know, trying to to to make a point, I suppose,

0:20:24.680 --> 0:20:27.440
<v Speaker 1>but uh but still, you know, all these sort of

0:20:27.520 --> 0:20:30.959
<v Speaker 1>questions and considerations do get into bigger questions about like

0:20:31.200 --> 0:20:33.480
<v Speaker 1>what are we doing? Like what is the what? And

0:20:33.520 --> 0:20:35.920
<v Speaker 1>what are we doing wrong? And then what is the

0:20:35.920 --> 0:20:39.160
<v Speaker 1>the overall shape of life? This is you know, real,

0:20:39.880 --> 0:20:43.280
<v Speaker 1>This is the meat of philosophy and theology. You know,

0:20:43.320 --> 0:20:45.480
<v Speaker 1>why is there so much suffering in the world? Is

0:20:45.640 --> 0:20:48.960
<v Speaker 1>life suffering? Does all the suffering make the good parts

0:20:48.960 --> 0:20:52.480
<v Speaker 1>worth having? Is a miserable life better than no life

0:20:52.480 --> 0:20:55.600
<v Speaker 1>at all? Are their fates worse than death? I mean?

0:20:55.640 --> 0:20:58.440
<v Speaker 1>This is These are questions we continue to wrestle with.

0:20:58.720 --> 0:21:01.240
<v Speaker 1>And then there's also the big, big question of inequality. Here.

0:21:01.400 --> 0:21:05.120
<v Speaker 1>If only a small fraction of the human population, such

0:21:05.119 --> 0:21:07.399
<v Speaker 1>as you know, the much touted one percent, or or

0:21:07.440 --> 0:21:10.480
<v Speaker 1>even some larger percentile, depending on what your parameters are,

0:21:10.720 --> 0:21:13.840
<v Speaker 1>if only this small fraction of the population has access

0:21:14.040 --> 0:21:17.760
<v Speaker 1>to true comfort, health, happiness, or whatever your gage happens

0:21:17.760 --> 0:21:20.960
<v Speaker 1>to be. Then what does that say about the overall

0:21:21.000 --> 0:21:24.800
<v Speaker 1>health of the system. If the popular idea of what

0:21:25.040 --> 0:21:27.680
<v Speaker 1>it is to be human is, say the lifestyle one

0:21:27.720 --> 0:21:32.160
<v Speaker 1>season a popular television show, be it Friends or the Kardashians,

0:21:32.240 --> 0:21:34.680
<v Speaker 1>or even like Seinfeld, you know, a nice sizeable apartment

0:21:34.720 --> 0:21:38.560
<v Speaker 1>and all. Uh, then then how do we square how

0:21:38.760 --> 0:21:43.040
<v Speaker 1>out of proportion these visions are with our reality or

0:21:43.119 --> 0:21:46.240
<v Speaker 1>sort of the standard reality on Earth. And likewise we

0:21:46.359 --> 0:21:50.399
<v Speaker 1>might wonder which ideal we're envisioning, uh, to be installed

0:21:50.600 --> 0:21:53.199
<v Speaker 1>in an off world colony? What are we spreading to

0:21:53.240 --> 0:21:56.919
<v Speaker 1>other worlds beyond basic human presence and just sort of

0:21:56.960 --> 0:22:00.439
<v Speaker 1>the staked flag of empire, or perhaps I really we

0:22:00.520 --> 0:22:03.359
<v Speaker 1>envisioned that such off world realities would encompass just a

0:22:03.440 --> 0:22:06.320
<v Speaker 1>vast array of emotional states, uh, you know, and that

0:22:06.480 --> 0:22:09.159
<v Speaker 1>things would even out tomorrow will be like today in

0:22:09.160 --> 0:22:10.920
<v Speaker 1>the arc of the moral universe, you know, will will

0:22:10.960 --> 0:22:13.680
<v Speaker 1>been towards justice and so forth. So at this point

0:22:13.760 --> 0:22:16.000
<v Speaker 1>I wanna I want to turn to this this subject

0:22:16.119 --> 0:22:20.760
<v Speaker 1>of astronomical suffering. Uh. And this comes from a paper

0:22:21.160 --> 0:22:26.040
<v Speaker 1>by Marco Covid. Uh. Not to be confused with takishi kovacs,

0:22:26.280 --> 0:22:29.440
<v Speaker 1>which we we referenced earlier. This is a k O

0:22:29.560 --> 0:22:33.320
<v Speaker 1>V I see, with the last part having a H

0:22:33.880 --> 0:22:37.760
<v Speaker 1>pronunciation like in chocolate. So uh so. Covid is a

0:22:37.840 --> 0:22:41.960
<v Speaker 1>Swiss social scientist who is the co founder and CEO

0:22:42.040 --> 0:22:45.560
<v Speaker 1>of the consulting firm Ours Cognitanis, and whose work has

0:22:45.560 --> 0:22:49.760
<v Speaker 1>been featured in Ian Magazine, among other places. He also

0:22:49.920 --> 0:22:52.720
<v Speaker 1>has written extensively in German and the German language, and

0:22:52.720 --> 0:22:57.600
<v Speaker 1>hosts a German language podcast titled din Katalier, which you

0:22:57.640 --> 0:22:59.359
<v Speaker 1>can you can actually you can look up. It is

0:22:59.480 --> 0:23:02.520
<v Speaker 1>d E K A T E l I E R

0:23:02.680 --> 0:23:06.640
<v Speaker 1>dot x y z. So if you were a German speaker, uh,

0:23:06.920 --> 0:23:09.480
<v Speaker 1>check that out. It's uh I would check it out

0:23:09.600 --> 0:23:13.400
<v Speaker 1>if my German were not just the most basic level ever.

0:23:14.520 --> 0:23:17.120
<v Speaker 1>Uh So, you wanted to do this topic today because

0:23:17.240 --> 0:23:20.200
<v Speaker 1>you you read an article by Covids, right, Yeah. I

0:23:20.280 --> 0:23:24.080
<v Speaker 1>published in UM. It's an open science framework publication titled

0:23:24.359 --> 0:23:28.439
<v Speaker 1>Risks of Space Colonization. You can access the full paper

0:23:28.480 --> 0:23:30.600
<v Speaker 1>online and I urge everyone to do so because it's

0:23:30.600 --> 0:23:32.720
<v Speaker 1>a thought provoking read and it really puts the whole

0:23:32.840 --> 0:23:37.520
<v Speaker 1>enterprise of off world colonies under philosophical scrutiny, not to

0:23:37.520 --> 0:23:39.119
<v Speaker 1>say that he doesn't touch on ideas that I think

0:23:39.160 --> 0:23:42.240
<v Speaker 1>are already out there in the in the zeitgeist and

0:23:42.320 --> 0:23:45.000
<v Speaker 1>in the you know, the science fiction whole consideration of

0:23:45.000 --> 0:23:48.040
<v Speaker 1>the future. But but it's really a great ride up.

0:23:48.440 --> 0:23:51.320
<v Speaker 1>We're not going to go through everything Covid discusses here,

0:23:51.320 --> 0:23:55.119
<v Speaker 1>because he certainly discusses the risks and rewards of space colonization,

0:23:55.440 --> 0:23:59.960
<v Speaker 1>including the notion that the acceleration of space colonization capability

0:24:00.160 --> 0:24:03.320
<v Speaker 1>would just increase the existential risk coming at us, like

0:24:03.359 --> 0:24:08.040
<v Speaker 1>all the technological ways that we could potentially destroy ourselves

0:24:08.119 --> 0:24:11.639
<v Speaker 1>or make life worse on the planet, that being able

0:24:11.680 --> 0:24:16.000
<v Speaker 1>to to move at great speeds, to have orbital you know, supremacy,

0:24:16.000 --> 0:24:19.119
<v Speaker 1>that these things would just uh create more ways for

0:24:19.200 --> 0:24:21.280
<v Speaker 1>us to hurt ourselves. I mean, I feel like we're

0:24:21.320 --> 0:24:26.440
<v Speaker 1>doing a bad enough job already at avoiding species level risks. Yeah. Yeah,

0:24:26.480 --> 0:24:29.320
<v Speaker 1>but when you consider potential technologies like you know, rods

0:24:29.359 --> 0:24:31.800
<v Speaker 1>from God, and the idea that you know, you wouldn't

0:24:31.800 --> 0:24:36.040
<v Speaker 1>even need explosives if you had orbital supremacy, if you

0:24:36.040 --> 0:24:38.159
<v Speaker 1>had enough to just mass up there in orbit that

0:24:38.200 --> 0:24:41.159
<v Speaker 1>you could drop down things like that it's the ultimate

0:24:41.240 --> 0:24:45.439
<v Speaker 1>high ground. Yeah, exactly. And he also discusses contact with

0:24:45.480 --> 0:24:50.200
<v Speaker 1>microbial extratractical extraterrestrial life, which we've discussed on the show before,

0:24:50.560 --> 0:24:56.600
<v Speaker 1>secession and independence, reactionary colonies, intercolonial conflict, which is another

0:24:56.640 --> 0:25:00.920
<v Speaker 1>topic we've definitely uh produced episodes on, and much much more.

0:25:01.280 --> 0:25:03.520
<v Speaker 1>But I wanted to focus in on some of the

0:25:03.560 --> 0:25:06.679
<v Speaker 1>other ideas the outlines here, such as the risk of

0:25:06.880 --> 0:25:12.960
<v Speaker 1>moral catastrophes quote massively undesirable outcomes of engaging in space

0:25:13.000 --> 0:25:18.600
<v Speaker 1>colonization but without any intent for or complacency towards doing harm.

0:25:18.920 --> 0:25:21.639
<v Speaker 1>And the the first of these that he brings up is

0:25:21.680 --> 0:25:26.480
<v Speaker 1>the astronomical populations ethics conundrum. And to better understand that,

0:25:26.680 --> 0:25:29.080
<v Speaker 1>we have to first consider what is known as the

0:25:29.160 --> 0:25:33.000
<v Speaker 1>repugnant conclusion. Yeah. So, um, if if we got any

0:25:33.200 --> 0:25:36.760
<v Speaker 1>moral philosophy nerds out there, you will recognize this immediately.

0:25:36.800 --> 0:25:40.399
<v Speaker 1>The idea of the repugnant conclusion is, uh it's a

0:25:40.480 --> 0:25:46.040
<v Speaker 1>very popular question in the the domain of population ethics,

0:25:46.040 --> 0:25:48.720
<v Speaker 1>the sub branch of ethics about how to know what's

0:25:48.720 --> 0:25:51.600
<v Speaker 1>the right thing to do when considering the creation and

0:25:52.160 --> 0:25:56.280
<v Speaker 1>maintenance of populations of people. Uh So, the repugnant conclusion

0:25:56.359 --> 0:25:59.480
<v Speaker 1>is also known as the mere addition problem, and it

0:25:59.560 --> 0:26:03.199
<v Speaker 1>was famous articulated by the British philosopher Derek Parfit in

0:26:03.240 --> 0:26:08.200
<v Speaker 1>his nineteen four book Reasons and Persons. As often understood today,

0:26:08.240 --> 0:26:11.600
<v Speaker 1>the repugnant conclusion takes the form of a paradox about

0:26:11.640 --> 0:26:15.240
<v Speaker 1>our intuitions on population ethics. Uh. And there are a

0:26:15.240 --> 0:26:17.840
<v Speaker 1>lot of ways of expressing or illustrating this paradox. But

0:26:17.880 --> 0:26:20.000
<v Speaker 1>to make it as simple and as clear as I can,

0:26:21.000 --> 0:26:24.560
<v Speaker 1>the repugnant conclusion is a statement like this, And this

0:26:24.640 --> 0:26:28.119
<v Speaker 1>is a quote for from Derek Parfitt. Quote. For any

0:26:28.160 --> 0:26:32.240
<v Speaker 1>possible population of at least ten billion people, all with

0:26:32.560 --> 0:26:36.160
<v Speaker 1>very high quality of life, there must be some much

0:26:36.359 --> 0:26:40.959
<v Speaker 1>larger imaginable population whose existence, if other things are equal,

0:26:41.280 --> 0:26:44.679
<v Speaker 1>would be better, even though it's members have lives that

0:26:44.720 --> 0:26:49.040
<v Speaker 1>are barely worth living. So that that sounds very counterintuitive, right,

0:26:49.119 --> 0:26:51.520
<v Speaker 1>Like there's some number we don't know exactly what it is.

0:26:52.200 --> 0:26:56.000
<v Speaker 1>Maybe maybe you know ten trillion people who might have

0:26:56.359 --> 0:26:59.639
<v Speaker 1>all completely miserable lives, But it would be better for

0:26:59.720 --> 0:27:03.320
<v Speaker 1>all those people to exist than for some smaller number

0:27:03.320 --> 0:27:06.480
<v Speaker 1>of people to exist, all having good lives. Now, how

0:27:06.480 --> 0:27:09.760
<v Speaker 1>on earth could you arrive at that conclusion. Well, let's

0:27:09.760 --> 0:27:13.040
<v Speaker 1>illustrate with an example. Um, And of course I'm slightly

0:27:13.080 --> 0:27:17.240
<v Speaker 1>oversimplifying here because this arises in a discussion alongside another

0:27:17.280 --> 0:27:21.400
<v Speaker 1>complicated issue known as the non identity problem. And with

0:27:21.440 --> 0:27:25.000
<v Speaker 1>respect to the repugnant conclusion, Parfit himself uses an argument

0:27:25.040 --> 0:27:28.879
<v Speaker 1>with more steps and bar graphs and stuff representing hypothetical

0:27:28.960 --> 0:27:31.080
<v Speaker 1>human groups and qualities of life. I'm just going to

0:27:31.160 --> 0:27:32.720
<v Speaker 1>try to get to the heart of it in a

0:27:32.800 --> 0:27:35.479
<v Speaker 1>simple and clear way. Let's say you're put in a

0:27:35.520 --> 0:27:39.920
<v Speaker 1>weird experiment by a godlike consortium of cardassiev three level

0:27:39.960 --> 0:27:44.560
<v Speaker 1>alien scientists who are so technologically powerful that they can

0:27:44.600 --> 0:27:47.120
<v Speaker 1>make realities come in and out of being at will.

0:27:47.600 --> 0:27:50.720
<v Speaker 1>And they give you two options. They give you the

0:27:50.760 --> 0:27:54.159
<v Speaker 1>option to make one of two scenarios a reality. Robert,

0:27:54.480 --> 0:27:57.359
<v Speaker 1>will you take this test? Yes, let's do it. Okay,

0:27:57.359 --> 0:28:01.280
<v Speaker 1>So scenario one, you get too exist, but I do

0:28:01.400 --> 0:28:04.159
<v Speaker 1>not get to exist. Imagine again, not really me. You

0:28:04.200 --> 0:28:07.120
<v Speaker 1>don't know me. I'm just some hypothetical other person yet

0:28:07.160 --> 0:28:10.600
<v Speaker 1>to be born. In your existence, you have a pretty

0:28:10.680 --> 0:28:13.399
<v Speaker 1>nice life. You get really good food, you have a

0:28:13.480 --> 0:28:15.720
<v Speaker 1>nice house, you get to hang out with friends and family,

0:28:16.280 --> 0:28:19.439
<v Speaker 1>you have free time, get to exercise and experience nature.

0:28:19.720 --> 0:28:22.680
<v Speaker 1>You get to read interesting books and pursue creative work.

0:28:23.000 --> 0:28:26.520
<v Speaker 1>It's pretty great, but I don't exist at all. Now

0:28:26.560 --> 0:28:30.800
<v Speaker 1>here's scenario to both you and I get to exist.

0:28:31.359 --> 0:28:34.560
<v Speaker 1>You keep everything you had in the previous scenario. You

0:28:34.600 --> 0:28:38.920
<v Speaker 1>get good material conditions, good relationships and social life, interesting

0:28:38.960 --> 0:28:43.600
<v Speaker 1>creative projects to explore, etcetera. Nothing at all changes for you. I,

0:28:43.760 --> 0:28:46.840
<v Speaker 1>on the other hand, have a less exciting existence. I

0:28:46.920 --> 0:28:49.960
<v Speaker 1>have a few social relationships, but I only get to

0:28:50.000 --> 0:28:52.840
<v Speaker 1>talk to people through a glass barrier. And I live

0:28:52.880 --> 0:28:56.120
<v Speaker 1>in a kind of dank concrete building that's always dimly

0:28:56.200 --> 0:28:59.000
<v Speaker 1>lit and a little bit too cold. And I get

0:28:59.120 --> 0:29:01.440
<v Speaker 1>enough food to eat, but it's not very exciting. It's

0:29:01.480 --> 0:29:05.040
<v Speaker 1>basically just like microwave frozen fish sticks and tater tots

0:29:05.040 --> 0:29:07.760
<v Speaker 1>and a vitamin supplement to keep me more or less healthy.

0:29:08.240 --> 0:29:10.400
<v Speaker 1>I can still sort of pursue my interests in my

0:29:10.480 --> 0:29:12.400
<v Speaker 1>spare time, but I don't have a lot of spare

0:29:12.400 --> 0:29:17.000
<v Speaker 1>time after all of my shifts at the Hollywood Acid Factory. Now,

0:29:17.040 --> 0:29:20.240
<v Speaker 1>which scenario would you pick? Oh, this is hard because

0:29:20.400 --> 0:29:23.200
<v Speaker 1>with the first one you've kind of had me like, okay, uh,

0:29:23.200 --> 0:29:25.800
<v Speaker 1>this sounds fine. All you know, my life and my

0:29:25.920 --> 0:29:29.959
<v Speaker 1>connections and the things I'm invested in, those exist and

0:29:30.440 --> 0:29:34.000
<v Speaker 1>you don't exist. And so like there's you know, you

0:29:34.040 --> 0:29:35.800
<v Speaker 1>don't really have a dog in the hunt, right, you

0:29:35.840 --> 0:29:37.560
<v Speaker 1>don't have any skin in that. You literally do not

0:29:37.640 --> 0:29:41.040
<v Speaker 1>have skin in the game. But then scenario to makes

0:29:41.040 --> 0:29:44.240
<v Speaker 1>things a lot more difficult because it's like, now it's

0:29:44.280 --> 0:29:47.200
<v Speaker 1>it's kind of this question of do you get to

0:29:47.280 --> 0:29:49.200
<v Speaker 1>exist in this kind of like in this you know,

0:29:49.240 --> 0:29:53.040
<v Speaker 1>this more miserable state or not like quite miserable. I

0:29:53.080 --> 0:29:56.000
<v Speaker 1>don't know, depending on how you frame it. But yeah,

0:29:56.000 --> 0:29:58.160
<v Speaker 1>it's like, then I feel like I am imposing on

0:29:58.280 --> 0:30:02.080
<v Speaker 1>you if I say you can't exist, right, So just

0:30:02.160 --> 0:30:04.760
<v Speaker 1>imagine all of that is true. But if you asked me,

0:30:04.840 --> 0:30:06.600
<v Speaker 1>I would say, well, of course I want to exist.

0:30:06.640 --> 0:30:10.200
<v Speaker 1>I don't want to not exist. Yeah. I do not

0:30:10.280 --> 0:30:13.440
<v Speaker 1>feel it is my place to decide that someone should

0:30:13.440 --> 0:30:17.440
<v Speaker 1>not exist, you know, due to the quality of their life.

0:30:17.520 --> 0:30:19.640
<v Speaker 1>And in this case, you know, I mean, this is

0:30:19.720 --> 0:30:23.520
<v Speaker 1>a scenario to puts me in a very tough place. Yeah,

0:30:23.520 --> 0:30:26.560
<v Speaker 1>And I think most people's intuition when confronted with this

0:30:26.600 --> 0:30:30.080
<v Speaker 1>problem is that it would be unfair to pick scenario one.

0:30:30.320 --> 0:30:33.840
<v Speaker 1>Even though my existence in scenario two is not ideal,

0:30:34.280 --> 0:30:36.600
<v Speaker 1>you'd assume that if you asked me, I would still

0:30:36.720 --> 0:30:41.160
<v Speaker 1>rather exist than not exist. Right, So scenario two in

0:30:41.200 --> 0:30:45.440
<v Speaker 1>this context is, by most people's intuition, a better world.

0:30:45.520 --> 0:30:48.320
<v Speaker 1>It's a more preferable world. If you had the option,

0:30:48.440 --> 0:30:51.000
<v Speaker 1>scenario two would be the better one to bring about,

0:30:51.520 --> 0:30:53.920
<v Speaker 1>And it's really hard to argue with that reasoning. In

0:30:54.000 --> 0:30:55.960
<v Speaker 1>order to argue with that reasoning, you'd have to say

0:30:56.000 --> 0:30:58.960
<v Speaker 1>that you have the power unilaterally to say that other

0:30:59.000 --> 0:31:02.000
<v Speaker 1>people shouldn't be able to exist and live lives that

0:31:02.080 --> 0:31:04.480
<v Speaker 1>they might not rate as perfect but still would want

0:31:04.520 --> 0:31:08.400
<v Speaker 1>to have. But this opens up a very dangerous logic

0:31:08.840 --> 0:31:12.640
<v Speaker 1>because it means it's possible to increase the desirability of

0:31:12.680 --> 0:31:16.720
<v Speaker 1>a world just by adding to the number of sentient

0:31:16.840 --> 0:31:20.000
<v Speaker 1>minds that want to keep existing in it. Again, this

0:31:20.080 --> 0:31:23.360
<v Speaker 1>is why it's known as the mere addition problem. That

0:31:23.480 --> 0:31:26.480
<v Speaker 1>you can create scenarios where it's better to have a

0:31:26.560 --> 0:31:29.840
<v Speaker 1>world with more minds in it, as long as those

0:31:29.880 --> 0:31:33.640
<v Speaker 1>minds would say that they want to exist, even if

0:31:33.680 --> 0:31:37.920
<v Speaker 1>the average quality of human life is drastically reduced. So

0:31:37.960 --> 0:31:41.000
<v Speaker 1>like if you took the average quality of my existence

0:31:41.000 --> 0:31:44.400
<v Speaker 1>and your existence together in scenario two, then it would

0:31:44.400 --> 0:31:47.320
<v Speaker 1>be lower than the average of your existence alone in

0:31:47.360 --> 0:31:50.880
<v Speaker 1>scenario one. And then if you obey this maxim that

0:31:50.960 --> 0:31:53.400
<v Speaker 1>you've set out. Now it seems like you're committed to

0:31:53.440 --> 0:31:56.640
<v Speaker 1>a chain of logic that leads to the conclusion that

0:31:56.720 --> 0:32:00.360
<v Speaker 1>the value of quantity can overwhelm the very able of

0:32:00.440 --> 0:32:03.400
<v Speaker 1>quality when it comes to human life, as as long

0:32:03.440 --> 0:32:07.320
<v Speaker 1>as most people would rather exist than not, some greater

0:32:07.520 --> 0:32:11.080
<v Speaker 1>number of lives are preferable to some smaller number, even

0:32:11.200 --> 0:32:16.240
<v Speaker 1>if the lives and the greater number are pretty abjectly miserable. Now,

0:32:16.280 --> 0:32:17.959
<v Speaker 1>I think we should know that this logic would not

0:32:18.040 --> 0:32:21.280
<v Speaker 1>apply to lives that are so miserable that people would

0:32:21.320 --> 0:32:24.600
<v Speaker 1>say themselves that they would truly rather cease to exist.

0:32:25.240 --> 0:32:27.479
<v Speaker 1>You could think of some kind of like torture, like

0:32:27.560 --> 0:32:30.360
<v Speaker 1>hell world or something, you know, like if Hell existed,

0:32:30.560 --> 0:32:33.320
<v Speaker 1>it would just be better for that to not exist. Yeah,

0:32:33.360 --> 0:32:35.560
<v Speaker 1>this is the the the option we're talking about here

0:32:35.720 --> 0:32:38.480
<v Speaker 1>is more in line with to bring in us another

0:32:38.520 --> 0:32:42.360
<v Speaker 1>great science fiction example, uh, the Martian Colonies and total recall,

0:32:42.840 --> 0:32:46.920
<v Speaker 1>where most people have it pretty horrible there, or at

0:32:46.960 --> 0:32:49.480
<v Speaker 1>least it's a rough existence, but they would still fight

0:32:49.520 --> 0:32:52.360
<v Speaker 1>to survive. Yeah, yeah, and they they get into how

0:32:52.400 --> 0:32:55.400
<v Speaker 1>like the the early like the settlers were just basically

0:32:55.440 --> 0:32:58.240
<v Speaker 1>living in caves. You know, it's just this this brutal

0:32:58.280 --> 0:33:00.800
<v Speaker 1>primitive existence. And yet at this same time, like they

0:33:01.080 --> 0:33:05.320
<v Speaker 1>you know, they're they're not in just constant torture. Yeah, exactly. Now,

0:33:05.560 --> 0:33:07.480
<v Speaker 1>I want to be very clear, as we said at

0:33:07.520 --> 0:33:09.640
<v Speaker 1>the beginning, the point of this is not that the

0:33:09.680 --> 0:33:14.160
<v Speaker 1>repugnant conclusion is correct. It's actually, you know, Derek Parfitt

0:33:14.400 --> 0:33:18.000
<v Speaker 1>highlights this to say, like this really seems to be incorrect.

0:33:18.040 --> 0:33:20.720
<v Speaker 1>It really seems to go against our intuitions. So the

0:33:20.760 --> 0:33:23.960
<v Speaker 1>problem is figuring out what part of the logical chain

0:33:24.000 --> 0:33:27.920
<v Speaker 1>that gets you there is wrong. Because I mean, most

0:33:27.920 --> 0:33:30.960
<v Speaker 1>people I think would say that this this conclusion is incorrect.

0:33:31.120 --> 0:33:34.040
<v Speaker 1>There are these practical moral implications to it. If it

0:33:34.120 --> 0:33:38.280
<v Speaker 1>were actually correct, if the repugnant conclusion were really did

0:33:38.360 --> 0:33:41.640
<v Speaker 1>have moral force, it would have implications like humans should

0:33:41.640 --> 0:33:44.880
<v Speaker 1>engage in maximal natalism, right, like the idea that humans

0:33:44.880 --> 0:33:48.200
<v Speaker 1>should reproduce as much as possible to create as much

0:33:48.320 --> 0:33:51.800
<v Speaker 1>human life as we possibly can, because to create less

0:33:51.840 --> 0:33:54.280
<v Speaker 1>than the maximum possible amount of human life would be

0:33:54.320 --> 0:33:58.040
<v Speaker 1>immoral under this view, if you didn't work to maximize

0:33:58.080 --> 0:34:02.000
<v Speaker 1>the human population, you're denying future people the right to exist.

0:34:02.520 --> 0:34:05.880
<v Speaker 1>And again, you know, too many people. That seems intuitively absurd.

0:34:05.960 --> 0:34:09.200
<v Speaker 1>Why would you trade a world with less people living

0:34:09.280 --> 0:34:13.080
<v Speaker 1>fulfilling lives for a world with vastly more people living

0:34:13.160 --> 0:34:15.520
<v Speaker 1>lives you know, at the edge of what resources they

0:34:15.520 --> 0:34:18.960
<v Speaker 1>can get to barely survive. For instance, you could think

0:34:18.960 --> 0:34:22.399
<v Speaker 1>about it in terms of cat ownership, you know, like

0:34:23.040 --> 0:34:27.200
<v Speaker 1>on one cat, in my opinion, is enough. Um. But

0:34:27.360 --> 0:34:29.160
<v Speaker 1>you know, I could see myself talked into all right,

0:34:29.239 --> 0:34:30.879
<v Speaker 1>we need to get a second cat. This cat needs

0:34:30.880 --> 0:34:33.600
<v Speaker 1>a home. Let's let's let's do it. But then the

0:34:33.640 --> 0:34:36.800
<v Speaker 1>more cats you add to a house, the more chaotic

0:34:36.840 --> 0:34:40.040
<v Speaker 1>it becomes, the more work has to go into taking

0:34:40.080 --> 0:34:42.279
<v Speaker 1>care of those cats, until you reach a point where

0:34:42.320 --> 0:34:47.120
<v Speaker 1>it's it's just about quantity over quality, right right, exactly. Now, Again,

0:34:47.640 --> 0:34:52.960
<v Speaker 1>this isn't too assume any particular correlation between the number

0:34:53.000 --> 0:34:55.080
<v Speaker 1>of people on Earth and their quality of life. I

0:34:55.120 --> 0:34:58.480
<v Speaker 1>mean I think that, um, there are actually some naive

0:34:58.560 --> 0:35:03.360
<v Speaker 1>assumptions going around to out about increasing human populations necessarily

0:35:03.680 --> 0:35:06.760
<v Speaker 1>always leading to bad outcomes. I don't think we should

0:35:06.920 --> 0:35:09.839
<v Speaker 1>we should take those conclusions for granted, but just saying that, like,

0:35:10.160 --> 0:35:12.640
<v Speaker 1>if you assume, at some point, you know, if there

0:35:12.640 --> 0:35:16.520
<v Speaker 1>were a hundred trillion humans on Earth, you can definitely

0:35:16.600 --> 0:35:19.279
<v Speaker 1>say that that would that would cause problems for for

0:35:19.320 --> 0:35:22.759
<v Speaker 1>ecosystems and stuff right right. And and also, just before

0:35:22.760 --> 0:35:25.399
<v Speaker 1>anybody writes me if you have multiple cats in your home,

0:35:25.640 --> 0:35:27.719
<v Speaker 1>I am not judging you. I am just saying that

0:35:27.840 --> 0:35:31.880
<v Speaker 1>multiple cats, uh, does not feel right for me personally

0:35:32.480 --> 0:35:35.440
<v Speaker 1>my personal household. But I know plenty of people with

0:35:35.480 --> 0:35:38.640
<v Speaker 1>lots of cats, and they seem quite happy with the situation.

0:35:39.000 --> 0:35:42.160
<v Speaker 1>But but even they, I think would probably admit that

0:35:42.200 --> 0:35:46.399
<v Speaker 1>there is there is some threshold cat ownership. Right, Even

0:35:46.440 --> 0:35:49.040
<v Speaker 1>if you're you're you're a sort of like cat maximalist

0:35:49.080 --> 0:35:51.839
<v Speaker 1>in a practical sense, you're not really because you're not

0:35:51.840 --> 0:35:54.839
<v Speaker 1>trying to get five hundred cats in your house. Yeah,

0:35:54.880 --> 0:36:00.360
<v Speaker 1>because that's when yeah, that's when law enforcement gets involved. Um.

0:36:00.400 --> 0:36:02.879
<v Speaker 1>But then okay, so so on the on the one hand,

0:36:02.920 --> 0:36:05.040
<v Speaker 1>you're thinking like, no, that that can't be right, But

0:36:05.080 --> 0:36:07.440
<v Speaker 1>then compare it again to our other intuitions that got

0:36:07.480 --> 0:36:09.799
<v Speaker 1>us there in the first place. Even if you wish

0:36:09.880 --> 0:36:12.600
<v Speaker 1>the quality of your life for much better. Most people

0:36:12.640 --> 0:36:16.280
<v Speaker 1>would prefer existing over not existing, even people who are

0:36:16.360 --> 0:36:19.239
<v Speaker 1>in pain, who lack the things that we desire, We

0:36:19.239 --> 0:36:22.719
<v Speaker 1>would mostly prefer to be able to exist rather than

0:36:22.760 --> 0:36:25.040
<v Speaker 1>not exist. And so it would certainly be wrong of

0:36:25.120 --> 0:36:29.000
<v Speaker 1>us to decide on other people's behalf that their lives

0:36:29.040 --> 0:36:31.600
<v Speaker 1>are not worth living. Right, Yeah, I think there's a

0:36:31.680 --> 0:36:34.799
<v Speaker 1>there's a strong argument for that. Um, you know, we

0:36:34.800 --> 0:36:36.400
<v Speaker 1>we do get it. We are getting into I know

0:36:36.440 --> 0:36:38.440
<v Speaker 1>there are all sorts of lights going off in people's

0:36:38.480 --> 0:36:41.839
<v Speaker 1>heads about varying you know, issues, but but but still,

0:36:41.880 --> 0:36:43.759
<v Speaker 1>I think that is a for the most part of

0:36:43.840 --> 0:36:46.520
<v Speaker 1>rational argument. Well, at least it's it feels that way.

0:36:46.560 --> 0:36:48.560
<v Speaker 1>It doesn't necessarily mean it's right. So this is a

0:36:48.600 --> 0:36:51.680
<v Speaker 1>paradox we've got it. Seems like we must choose between

0:36:51.719 --> 0:36:56.480
<v Speaker 1>two conclusions that both feel morally wrong. So what are

0:36:56.480 --> 0:36:59.960
<v Speaker 1>the ways of resolving this paradox? Because so the conclusion

0:37:00.080 --> 0:37:04.120
<v Speaker 1>is widely considered unacceptable. Parfit himself again, he articulates this,

0:37:04.200 --> 0:37:06.840
<v Speaker 1>but not to say that the repugnant conclusion is correct.

0:37:06.960 --> 0:37:09.960
<v Speaker 1>He brings it up to say, like, this is obviously wrong.

0:37:10.040 --> 0:37:12.440
<v Speaker 1>We have to figure out why this isn't the case,

0:37:12.960 --> 0:37:16.160
<v Speaker 1>and other philosophers have tried to find ways to avoid

0:37:16.200 --> 0:37:18.960
<v Speaker 1>the conclusion by like questioning some of the premises or

0:37:19.040 --> 0:37:23.080
<v Speaker 1>introducing other considerations. So, for example, you could argue that

0:37:23.360 --> 0:37:27.160
<v Speaker 1>maximizing the average quality of human life is the ideal

0:37:27.160 --> 0:37:29.560
<v Speaker 1>and so so not like the number of people, but

0:37:29.680 --> 0:37:32.240
<v Speaker 1>you just want to make the average human life quality

0:37:32.280 --> 0:37:34.839
<v Speaker 1>as high as possible. But under this model you'd run

0:37:34.840 --> 0:37:37.799
<v Speaker 1>into problems. For instance, you could improve the world by

0:37:37.880 --> 0:37:41.319
<v Speaker 1>killing everyone except the happiest person in it, and then

0:37:41.360 --> 0:37:45.440
<v Speaker 1>it would have the maximum average happiness. Uh. Then again

0:37:45.920 --> 0:37:47.799
<v Speaker 1>you could you could go back against that and say, well,

0:37:47.880 --> 0:37:51.600
<v Speaker 1>surely killing everyone else would decrease this person's quality of life.

0:37:52.440 --> 0:37:55.120
<v Speaker 1>But you can imagine like weird sci fi hypotheticals to

0:37:55.120 --> 0:37:58.280
<v Speaker 1>get around this, maybe, for example, that the best possible

0:37:58.320 --> 0:38:01.960
<v Speaker 1>world is the one with just one maximally satisfied person

0:38:02.320 --> 0:38:05.080
<v Speaker 1>living in a simulation of real life for the wind

0:38:05.080 --> 0:38:08.240
<v Speaker 1>howls around the you know waste land bunker that houses

0:38:08.400 --> 0:38:12.640
<v Speaker 1>that that person's real body. Yeah. That that reminds me

0:38:12.680 --> 0:38:15.000
<v Speaker 1>of a there was a Zoom meeting that I attended

0:38:15.040 --> 0:38:17.400
<v Speaker 1>this morning. There was like a like a like a

0:38:17.480 --> 0:38:20.600
<v Speaker 1>dad's meeting. There's a line with the school where my

0:38:20.640 --> 0:38:23.799
<v Speaker 1>son goes, and we were all asked to rate our

0:38:23.920 --> 0:38:26.960
<v Speaker 1>current level of happiness from a one to a kin

0:38:27.160 --> 0:38:29.960
<v Speaker 1>like one being like just I just just absolute misery,

0:38:30.000 --> 0:38:33.200
<v Speaker 1>I guess, and tin being like awesome, and most of

0:38:33.280 --> 0:38:36.200
<v Speaker 1>us put in sevens. I found I put on myself

0:38:36.239 --> 0:38:37.880
<v Speaker 1>put in a seven. There's like a seven point to

0:38:38.080 --> 0:38:40.880
<v Speaker 1>someone had a seven point seven. I think somebody somebody

0:38:41.040 --> 0:38:42.680
<v Speaker 1>was having a tough time, and you know, put in

0:38:42.719 --> 0:38:45.520
<v Speaker 1>like a six or a five. And then one person

0:38:45.560 --> 0:38:47.880
<v Speaker 1>put in a tin, and I was I was just

0:38:47.920 --> 0:38:53.200
<v Speaker 1>like wow, like, who, let's hand ownership of the what

0:38:53.239 --> 0:38:55.600
<v Speaker 1>are they doing where they have the you know, the tin?

0:38:55.680 --> 0:38:58.000
<v Speaker 1>So in this scenario, it's like, just cut out all

0:38:58.000 --> 0:39:00.480
<v Speaker 1>the sevens and let's just have only guy with a

0:39:00.560 --> 0:39:05.239
<v Speaker 1>tin and uh and he shall be the population of earth. Right,

0:39:05.320 --> 0:39:08.200
<v Speaker 1>So that obviously goes against our moral intuitions. Swell, it

0:39:08.239 --> 0:39:11.040
<v Speaker 1>does not feel right that you could you could improve

0:39:11.160 --> 0:39:14.000
<v Speaker 1>the moral worth of the world just by eliminating all

0:39:14.040 --> 0:39:17.680
<v Speaker 1>the unhappy people. That's obviously wrong. Uh So, Yeah, you're

0:39:17.719 --> 0:39:20.040
<v Speaker 1>still stuck with this problems. There are a bunch of

0:39:20.040 --> 0:39:22.719
<v Speaker 1>ways the different philosophers have have tried to deal with it.

0:39:22.800 --> 0:39:26.080
<v Speaker 1>Some have introduced like like sort of ad hoc ways

0:39:26.160 --> 0:39:30.840
<v Speaker 1>of calculating life value that's somewhat favor average quality of life,

0:39:30.840 --> 0:39:34.239
<v Speaker 1>but don't totally put that above number of people. I mean,

0:39:34.320 --> 0:39:37.840
<v Speaker 1>it's just like, this is clearly a difficult problem to

0:39:37.920 --> 0:39:41.520
<v Speaker 1>resolve some things that we believe in our intention with

0:39:41.560 --> 0:39:45.280
<v Speaker 1>each other. But however you try to deal with the problem,

0:39:45.360 --> 0:39:48.560
<v Speaker 1>it is not hard at all to imagine how this

0:39:48.680 --> 0:39:51.920
<v Speaker 1>thought experiment has an impact on the idea of space

0:39:51.960 --> 0:39:55.920
<v Speaker 1>exploration and space colonization. Because think about it again. Okay,

0:39:56.080 --> 0:40:00.080
<v Speaker 1>imagine you're charting out to futures for humanity, and one

0:40:00.239 --> 0:40:02.600
<v Speaker 1>is a is a future where we stay here on

0:40:02.680 --> 0:40:06.280
<v Speaker 1>Earth and people you know, there there are varying qualities

0:40:06.280 --> 0:40:08.040
<v Speaker 1>of life. But let's say, you know, in a in

0:40:08.080 --> 0:40:11.719
<v Speaker 1>a better future scenario, maybe we we implement some kind

0:40:11.760 --> 0:40:16.040
<v Speaker 1>of social structure that gets basically everybody on Earth's quality

0:40:16.080 --> 0:40:18.880
<v Speaker 1>of life up to a certain level where people have

0:40:18.960 --> 0:40:22.480
<v Speaker 1>the resources they need, they can pursue creative work, they

0:40:22.480 --> 0:40:25.080
<v Speaker 1>can they can hang out in a in a you know,

0:40:25.200 --> 0:40:29.640
<v Speaker 1>unpolluted natural environment, experience and nature have good social relationships.

0:40:30.000 --> 0:40:32.719
<v Speaker 1>You know, take a best case scenario, there still the

0:40:32.840 --> 0:40:35.680
<v Speaker 1>number of people who could live on Earth in that

0:40:35.719 --> 0:40:40.080
<v Speaker 1>scenario is going to be somewhat limited. Meanwhile, you could

0:40:40.120 --> 0:40:43.520
<v Speaker 1>have a lot more potential for human life and human flourishing,

0:40:43.560 --> 0:40:46.000
<v Speaker 1>and especially if you're playing the odds game against like

0:40:46.080 --> 0:40:47.960
<v Speaker 1>you know what, if you know, we get a space

0:40:48.000 --> 0:40:51.360
<v Speaker 1>impact or something really bad happens to planet Earth itself,

0:40:51.840 --> 0:40:54.520
<v Speaker 1>you can have a lot more potential for human life

0:40:54.840 --> 0:40:58.640
<v Speaker 1>if you were to spread out to other objects throughout

0:40:58.719 --> 0:41:01.120
<v Speaker 1>the you know, throughout the Solar System or throughout you know,

0:41:01.239 --> 0:41:04.440
<v Speaker 1>other star systems in the Milky Way. But if you

0:41:04.480 --> 0:41:06.719
<v Speaker 1>take a pessimistic view of what those would be like,

0:41:06.760 --> 0:41:11.600
<v Speaker 1>you can easily imagine how those existences might be pretty crappy.

0:41:11.719 --> 0:41:14.120
<v Speaker 1>You know, like you're you're trying to live on Mars,

0:41:14.239 --> 0:41:17.680
<v Speaker 1>but the exploration of Mars is in one sense exciting,

0:41:17.680 --> 0:41:21.520
<v Speaker 1>but also Mars is a horrible place. It's just horrible,

0:41:21.680 --> 0:41:24.879
<v Speaker 1>like would you really would you really want to live there?

0:41:24.920 --> 0:41:27.680
<v Speaker 1>And say an underground bunker that had to shield you

0:41:27.760 --> 0:41:31.239
<v Speaker 1>from radiation, and you know, you're you're eating these kind

0:41:31.239 --> 0:41:34.000
<v Speaker 1>of bland foods and you know there's only a couple

0:41:34.040 --> 0:41:36.560
<v Speaker 1>of other people who you can interact with face to face,

0:41:36.600 --> 0:41:38.880
<v Speaker 1>and you can't go outside you can't see a tree,

0:41:39.480 --> 0:41:41.960
<v Speaker 1>you know, and and and so forth. Yeah, and if

0:41:41.960 --> 0:41:44.600
<v Speaker 1>you're also looking at a situation where it's not even

0:41:44.680 --> 0:41:47.600
<v Speaker 1>like I'm gonna make this this world, this Martian world

0:41:47.600 --> 0:41:50.279
<v Speaker 1>better for my children, and it's more like, well, in

0:41:50.320 --> 0:41:53.120
<v Speaker 1>a thousand years things will be much better. You know.

0:41:53.600 --> 0:41:57.279
<v Speaker 1>It's it. It becomes kind of difficult to imagine, you know,

0:41:57.760 --> 0:42:01.560
<v Speaker 1>getting in the mindset of you know, of of the

0:42:01.600 --> 0:42:05.480
<v Speaker 1>of that particular individual, right and so this I feel

0:42:05.520 --> 0:42:08.560
<v Speaker 1>like this kind of question. The idea of space colonization,

0:42:08.920 --> 0:42:12.520
<v Speaker 1>in a way, is one particular scenario for making the

0:42:12.560 --> 0:42:18.160
<v Speaker 1>paradox of the repugnan conclusion kind of concrete. Like imagining

0:42:18.200 --> 0:42:21.480
<v Speaker 1>these different options, both of them feel kind of wrong

0:42:21.600 --> 0:42:23.879
<v Speaker 1>in a way, and this brings us back to uh

0:42:24.000 --> 0:42:28.760
<v Speaker 1>Covidge is austro astronomical population ethics conundrum. He writes, quote,

0:42:28.960 --> 0:42:32.520
<v Speaker 1>in the context of space colonization, the repugnant conclusion could

0:42:32.640 --> 0:42:35.760
<v Speaker 1>mean that a dystopian future in which dozens or hundreds

0:42:35.760 --> 0:42:39.080
<v Speaker 1>of billions of humans across different habitats in our solar

0:42:39.120 --> 0:42:43.759
<v Speaker 1>system and beyond live miserable, brutish, anguish field lives is

0:42:43.760 --> 0:42:47.400
<v Speaker 1>a future that is morbly preferable to, for example, a

0:42:47.480 --> 0:42:49.800
<v Speaker 1>future in which there are only a few billion people

0:42:49.920 --> 0:42:53.560
<v Speaker 1>who live happy lives on Earth. Now, Covid points out

0:42:53.560 --> 0:42:56.399
<v Speaker 1>that yes, this is an extreme possibility, but that it's

0:42:56.440 --> 0:42:59.520
<v Speaker 1>not unreasonable to presume that life on the off world

0:42:59.560 --> 0:43:01.880
<v Speaker 1>colonies indeed be hard. You know, we've just been discussing

0:43:02.160 --> 0:43:05.600
<v Speaker 1>how brutal Mars is. I mean, heck um, I think

0:43:05.840 --> 0:43:08.239
<v Speaker 1>it's a nanio. De grass Tyson, for instance, has brought

0:43:08.320 --> 0:43:12.839
<v Speaker 1>up look at Antarctica, and Arctica is infinitely more hospitable

0:43:13.040 --> 0:43:16.560
<v Speaker 1>than Mars. And outside of what a few thousand people

0:43:16.600 --> 0:43:19.200
<v Speaker 1>during the summer and barely a thousand people during the winter,

0:43:19.360 --> 0:43:23.239
<v Speaker 1>we don't have human life on Earth's fifth largest continent. Yeah,

0:43:23.280 --> 0:43:26.520
<v Speaker 1>I mean yeah, I think about how how uninhabitable not

0:43:26.680 --> 0:43:30.960
<v Speaker 1>just an Arctica, like most of Earth is. This is funny, like,

0:43:31.160 --> 0:43:33.719
<v Speaker 1>you know, Earth is the place we can live, but

0:43:33.800 --> 0:43:36.440
<v Speaker 1>we can't even live on most of it. Most of

0:43:36.480 --> 0:43:39.600
<v Speaker 1>the surface of the Earth is uninhabitable. It's either ocean

0:43:39.760 --> 0:43:43.160
<v Speaker 1>is open ocean, or it is you know, desert or

0:43:43.239 --> 0:43:48.319
<v Speaker 1>uninhabitable tundra, ice sheets like they're actually really just these

0:43:48.400 --> 0:43:51.400
<v Speaker 1>kind of slivers of the surface that are good for

0:43:51.480 --> 0:43:54.120
<v Speaker 1>us to settle down on. Yeah, I mean when you

0:43:54.440 --> 0:43:58.080
<v Speaker 1>consider like the hard surface of the Earth, most of

0:43:58.120 --> 0:44:03.759
<v Speaker 1>the Earth's surface is dark, high pressure deep sea environment,

0:44:04.520 --> 0:44:07.000
<v Speaker 1>where where we we have no place. Uh so, yeah,

0:44:07.000 --> 0:44:10.120
<v Speaker 1>we're we're clinging to the you know, to the parts

0:44:10.160 --> 0:44:12.600
<v Speaker 1>of the world that we can live and VR technology,

0:44:13.239 --> 0:44:15.239
<v Speaker 1>you know, we're able to to live in a lot

0:44:15.239 --> 0:44:18.000
<v Speaker 1>of places that we wouldn't be able to otherwise. But

0:44:18.000 --> 0:44:20.960
<v Speaker 1>but still, yeah, we again it comes kind of back

0:44:20.960 --> 0:44:24.960
<v Speaker 1>to the Kardashian scale, like in terms of technology and

0:44:25.040 --> 0:44:28.360
<v Speaker 1>just sort of maximizing our planet. Like we're not even

0:44:28.400 --> 0:44:32.200
<v Speaker 1>on wrong one yet, so you know, trying to imagine

0:44:32.200 --> 0:44:35.360
<v Speaker 1>people living on a world off world colony. People born

0:44:35.440 --> 0:44:38.239
<v Speaker 1>into life in another world would not exist at all

0:44:38.640 --> 0:44:41.440
<v Speaker 1>if not for the establishment of that colony. So, on

0:44:41.440 --> 0:44:44.400
<v Speaker 1>one hand of the paradox, colonizing other worlds is an

0:44:44.440 --> 0:44:47.399
<v Speaker 1>inherently moral act because you know, because if you don't

0:44:47.440 --> 0:44:50.280
<v Speaker 1>do it, they won't exist. But what if there are

0:44:50.320 --> 0:44:53.200
<v Speaker 1>not places where happiness and peace are going to be

0:44:53.200 --> 0:44:56.959
<v Speaker 1>easily found? What if these are harsh, frontier colonies, even

0:44:57.040 --> 0:45:01.920
<v Speaker 1>hell worlds in you know, to vary degrees that expand

0:45:02.000 --> 0:45:04.520
<v Speaker 1>the fact of human habitation, but do so via the

0:45:04.560 --> 0:45:08.160
<v Speaker 1>reality of human suffering. So Coach connects this to that

0:45:08.200 --> 0:45:11.759
<v Speaker 1>other standard problem of population ethics that we already mentioned, uh,

0:45:11.840 --> 0:45:15.960
<v Speaker 1>the non identity problem, which just to to reiterate that

0:45:16.120 --> 0:45:20.280
<v Speaker 1>the Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy states that it quote raises

0:45:20.400 --> 0:45:23.759
<v Speaker 1>questions regarding the obligations we think we have in respect

0:45:24.000 --> 0:45:26.560
<v Speaker 1>of people who, by our own acts are caused both

0:45:26.640 --> 0:45:30.360
<v Speaker 1>to exist and who have existences that are, though worth having,

0:45:30.960 --> 0:45:35.200
<v Speaker 1>unavoidably flawed existence. Is that is, that are flawed if

0:45:35.239 --> 0:45:38.719
<v Speaker 1>those people are ever to have them at all. Yeah,

0:45:38.760 --> 0:45:41.759
<v Speaker 1>So on the non identity problem again, this is part

0:45:41.760 --> 0:45:44.640
<v Speaker 1>of the same context in which Derek Parfitt's discussion of

0:45:44.640 --> 0:45:48.880
<v Speaker 1>the repugnant conclusion was described. It's another paradox. It's it

0:45:48.960 --> 0:45:51.839
<v Speaker 1>takes the same form showing that where it seems like

0:45:51.880 --> 0:45:54.640
<v Speaker 1>you have a couple of options and they both seem

0:45:54.719 --> 0:45:58.360
<v Speaker 1>morally wrong due to our intuitions. So so he shows

0:45:58.440 --> 0:46:01.600
<v Speaker 1>that there are three premises is that are intuitively true,

0:46:01.719 --> 0:46:04.919
<v Speaker 1>but they're in conflict with each other. Uh So, first

0:46:05.000 --> 0:46:08.000
<v Speaker 1>of all, there's the premise of what's known as the

0:46:08.160 --> 0:46:11.759
<v Speaker 1>person affecting view, and this is the belief that an

0:46:11.760 --> 0:46:15.560
<v Speaker 1>act can only be wrong if it harms someone in

0:46:15.680 --> 0:46:19.960
<v Speaker 1>some way and actually does no harm to anyone, cannot

0:46:20.000 --> 0:46:22.839
<v Speaker 1>be morally wrong. And of course this doesn't apply just

0:46:22.880 --> 0:46:25.239
<v Speaker 1>a physical harm. This would be, you know, any way

0:46:25.239 --> 0:46:28.640
<v Speaker 1>of making someone's life for situation worse. And if you

0:46:28.680 --> 0:46:31.480
<v Speaker 1>disagree with this, I try to think of something that

0:46:31.520 --> 0:46:34.400
<v Speaker 1>it's wrong to do, but that would never hurt anyone

0:46:34.480 --> 0:46:40.319
<v Speaker 1>in any way, the state of marshmallow man um I mean,

0:46:40.440 --> 0:46:42.560
<v Speaker 1>And and so some people might have views about that.

0:46:42.600 --> 0:46:45.640
<v Speaker 1>I mean, some people might adhere to, like a what

0:46:45.760 --> 0:46:49.239
<v Speaker 1>might be called a deontological view of morality, where there

0:46:49.280 --> 0:46:51.319
<v Speaker 1>are just certain things that are that are moral and

0:46:51.400 --> 0:46:55.080
<v Speaker 1>immoral and it actually does not flow from consequentialism from

0:46:55.080 --> 0:46:57.319
<v Speaker 1>how it affects other people. But but I mean, a

0:46:57.440 --> 0:47:00.880
<v Speaker 1>very common view among philosophers today would be that, you know,

0:47:01.080 --> 0:47:05.480
<v Speaker 1>there's something about morality that has to involve effects on people,

0:47:05.560 --> 0:47:08.719
<v Speaker 1>and if something doesn't hurt anyone, it's hard to see

0:47:08.760 --> 0:47:11.719
<v Speaker 1>how it's wrong. So that's the first idea, that that

0:47:11.800 --> 0:47:15.040
<v Speaker 1>there is a person affecting view of morality that something

0:47:15.040 --> 0:47:17.680
<v Speaker 1>can only be wrong if it harms someone. The second

0:47:17.680 --> 0:47:21.799
<v Speaker 1>premise is that bringing a person into existence is not

0:47:22.280 --> 0:47:26.760
<v Speaker 1>bad for that person, even if their existence is flawed

0:47:27.120 --> 0:47:30.719
<v Speaker 1>because being caused to exist is not a reduction in

0:47:30.760 --> 0:47:34.279
<v Speaker 1>the quality of one's existence. There is no higher baseline

0:47:34.360 --> 0:47:37.560
<v Speaker 1>from which you are reduced by being caused to exist

0:47:37.600 --> 0:47:39.920
<v Speaker 1>in the first place. Does that make sense? So it's

0:47:39.920 --> 0:47:42.600
<v Speaker 1>not like you were doing great before you existed, and

0:47:42.640 --> 0:47:45.880
<v Speaker 1>then once you existed, then that was like a downgrading

0:47:45.920 --> 0:47:48.640
<v Speaker 1>of how good you're doing. And then the third premise

0:47:48.800 --> 0:47:52.279
<v Speaker 1>would be that some acts of bringing people into existence

0:47:52.360 --> 0:47:56.560
<v Speaker 1>are wrong anyway. Imagine, for example, creating an underworld space

0:47:56.600 --> 0:47:59.360
<v Speaker 1>colony where the people they are going to be haunted

0:47:59.400 --> 0:48:02.360
<v Speaker 1>by space more locks that hound them every waking second,

0:48:02.520 --> 0:48:05.160
<v Speaker 1>Like you would think it would be wrong to create

0:48:05.200 --> 0:48:10.239
<v Speaker 1>that place, right, Yes, yes, I mean I'm try I'm

0:48:10.239 --> 0:48:12.560
<v Speaker 1>trying to envision all the ways that you know, we

0:48:12.600 --> 0:48:16.120
<v Speaker 1>can reach the space more locks and change them and

0:48:16.320 --> 0:48:19.480
<v Speaker 1>you know, bring space more locks and human colonists together.

0:48:19.680 --> 0:48:23.120
<v Speaker 1>But but it does sound pretty daunting. Yeah, And so

0:48:23.360 --> 0:48:26.880
<v Speaker 1>this is another problem along these lines. To to a

0:48:26.880 --> 0:48:30.200
<v Speaker 1>lot of philosophers, all of these premises seem correct, but

0:48:30.280 --> 0:48:32.399
<v Speaker 1>they can't all be right at the same time. They're

0:48:32.400 --> 0:48:35.719
<v Speaker 1>in conflict with each other. So Covid ways in on this.

0:48:35.840 --> 0:48:38.879
<v Speaker 1>He says in the case of our dystopian space colonization

0:48:38.920 --> 0:48:42.680
<v Speaker 1>thought experiment. However, the horrible future is not actually bad

0:48:42.760 --> 0:48:46.799
<v Speaker 1>for anyone. If it weren't for our dystopian space colonization activities,

0:48:47.080 --> 0:48:49.880
<v Speaker 1>all those billions of people beyond Earth who live miserable

0:48:49.880 --> 0:48:52.560
<v Speaker 1>lives barely worth living would not exist at all. From

0:48:52.560 --> 0:48:55.000
<v Speaker 1>the point of view of those future people, then their

0:48:55.040 --> 0:48:58.319
<v Speaker 1>miserable lives are still preferable to the alternative, which is

0:48:58.360 --> 0:49:01.239
<v Speaker 1>not having come into existence at all. The fact that

0:49:01.280 --> 0:49:04.279
<v Speaker 1>they were brought into their miserable existence was therefore not

0:49:04.440 --> 0:49:07.520
<v Speaker 1>morally bad for them. And this basically is the second

0:49:07.520 --> 0:49:10.760
<v Speaker 1>premise I mentioned a minute ago, that it's not bringing

0:49:10.800 --> 0:49:13.719
<v Speaker 1>someone into existence can't be bad for them because it

0:49:13.800 --> 0:49:17.520
<v Speaker 1>does not constitute a downgrading or reduction in their quality

0:49:17.520 --> 0:49:21.480
<v Speaker 1>of life. They didn't have a baseline to start from. Yeah,

0:49:21.800 --> 0:49:24.719
<v Speaker 1>so covid he ends up contending that, via these problems,

0:49:24.960 --> 0:49:28.760
<v Speaker 1>enabling a future of space colonies is at least less

0:49:28.800 --> 0:49:33.759
<v Speaker 1>morally desirable than other alternatives, but perhaps even morally questionable.

0:49:34.280 --> 0:49:37.000
<v Speaker 1>And this brings us to the next phase of his consideration,

0:49:37.280 --> 0:49:42.000
<v Speaker 1>and that is astronomical suffering in off world human populations.

0:49:42.640 --> 0:49:44.400
<v Speaker 1>All right, Well, let's take a break, and then we

0:49:44.480 --> 0:49:50.720
<v Speaker 1>can come back and explore some suffering. Alright, we're back

0:49:51.480 --> 0:49:56.200
<v Speaker 1>astronomical suffering, deep hurting. If you were a centobyte, then

0:49:56.200 --> 0:49:58.600
<v Speaker 1>you you may have skipped forward to this portion of

0:49:58.600 --> 0:50:02.680
<v Speaker 1>the podcast because you just wants some good suffering. Uh So,

0:50:02.800 --> 0:50:05.640
<v Speaker 1>Covig contends the pain of the Mars colony will be

0:50:05.719 --> 0:50:08.479
<v Speaker 1>legendary even in Hell. Yeah, this is where they should

0:50:08.480 --> 0:50:11.400
<v Speaker 1>have gone in. Uh imagine if if we could do

0:50:11.440 --> 0:50:15.799
<v Speaker 1>a read a redo of Hell raised or three, um no,

0:50:16.600 --> 0:50:20.520
<v Speaker 1>four four for the space one. Three is the one

0:50:20.560 --> 0:50:23.480
<v Speaker 1>with the with the like disco club and is it

0:50:23.520 --> 0:50:26.920
<v Speaker 1>in England or I think it's in the US. Okay,

0:50:27.080 --> 0:50:29.759
<v Speaker 1>I can't remember with the camera head cent a bite

0:50:29.800 --> 0:50:32.560
<v Speaker 1>and the c D cent a bite. Yes, yeah, the

0:50:32.800 --> 0:50:36.000
<v Speaker 1>fourth one is in space and is largely incomprehensible. But

0:50:36.160 --> 0:50:41.160
<v Speaker 1>imagine if it had decided to explore astronomical suffering instead.

0:50:41.920 --> 0:50:46.680
<v Speaker 1>So Covid contends that increasing maximum total well being is

0:50:46.760 --> 0:50:50.000
<v Speaker 1>questionable if the amount of suffering in the universe also increases,

0:50:50.719 --> 0:50:53.000
<v Speaker 1>but he goes on to argue that the astronomical non

0:50:53.040 --> 0:50:57.680
<v Speaker 1>identity problem is the question of suffering quote merely maximizing

0:50:57.719 --> 0:51:00.319
<v Speaker 1>total well being is questionable. At the same time, the

0:51:00.320 --> 0:51:02.880
<v Speaker 1>amount of suffering is increased to such a degree that

0:51:02.920 --> 0:51:06.240
<v Speaker 1>average well being decreases. The problem. The increase in suffering

0:51:06.280 --> 0:51:11.400
<v Speaker 1>through space colonization can be understood as a is a

0:51:11.520 --> 0:51:16.760
<v Speaker 1>risk sue generous or unique one, and that is astronomical suffering.

0:51:17.200 --> 0:51:19.440
<v Speaker 1>So part of the you know, the certainty here entails

0:51:19.640 --> 0:51:23.200
<v Speaker 1>suboptimal conditions for future humans and other worlds. Worlds where

0:51:23.239 --> 0:51:26.840
<v Speaker 1>any any of the sci fi scenarios we've already discussed,

0:51:27.160 --> 0:51:30.200
<v Speaker 1>UH could potentially come to life. Anything you've ever seen

0:51:30.200 --> 0:51:34.000
<v Speaker 1>in the science fiction film where off worlders have it hard,

0:51:34.160 --> 0:51:38.040
<v Speaker 1>you know, living in caves, depending on ailing or even

0:51:38.080 --> 0:51:41.680
<v Speaker 1>failing technology, having to live with astonishingly high levels of

0:51:41.760 --> 0:51:47.760
<v Speaker 1>radiation sickness, UH, having your health impacted by by microbiota

0:51:47.800 --> 0:51:51.040
<v Speaker 1>on this other world or some sort of disrupted microbiota

0:51:51.080 --> 0:51:52.960
<v Speaker 1>that you've brought with you. You know, things are out

0:51:52.960 --> 0:51:56.640
<v Speaker 1>of sync um Worlds where humans have to endure harsh

0:51:56.680 --> 0:52:00.520
<v Speaker 1>conditions due to heat, cold, or bow in the case

0:52:00.560 --> 0:52:03.760
<v Speaker 1>of like a tidally locked world, high pressure, low gravity,

0:52:03.800 --> 0:52:10.000
<v Speaker 1>high gravity, caustic atmosphere, resource scarcity, dangerous native biology, electromagnetic

0:52:10.080 --> 0:52:14.240
<v Speaker 1>field anomalies, and heightened ineo activity, just to name a few.

0:52:14.600 --> 0:52:17.600
<v Speaker 1>And he also mentions the idea of invasive biology brought

0:52:17.680 --> 0:52:21.200
<v Speaker 1>by by the colonists themselves, as well as a few

0:52:21.239 --> 0:52:27.200
<v Speaker 1>technical possibilities. One the future simulations of sentient beings, which

0:52:27.239 --> 0:52:30.080
<v Speaker 1>is something we've discussed on the show before. UH, the

0:52:30.160 --> 0:52:32.960
<v Speaker 1>idea that you know, you're you're dealing with a heightened

0:52:33.040 --> 0:52:36.759
<v Speaker 1>level of technology to even establish these worlds. So does

0:52:36.840 --> 0:52:40.319
<v Speaker 1>that also bring about all the the problems of say,

0:52:40.360 --> 0:52:44.440
<v Speaker 1>creating sentient life inside of simulation and then putting it

0:52:44.480 --> 0:52:47.279
<v Speaker 1>in a hell box, and then copy and pasting that

0:52:47.400 --> 0:52:52.000
<v Speaker 1>hell box, say a million times, you know. Um, Like,

0:52:52.120 --> 0:52:54.200
<v Speaker 1>that's that's the horrible idea. I think we got into

0:52:54.200 --> 0:52:57.040
<v Speaker 1>that a bit in the Basilisk episode. Sure, and then

0:52:57.440 --> 0:53:01.319
<v Speaker 1>he also brings up a misaligned artificial and eligence. UM.

0:53:01.520 --> 0:53:04.360
<v Speaker 1>So we also have to deal with the possibility of

0:53:04.360 --> 0:53:08.120
<v Speaker 1>of ai UH coming online and UH the part of

0:53:08.160 --> 0:53:12.919
<v Speaker 1>the scenario and being part of the the overall unhappiness

0:53:12.960 --> 0:53:16.879
<v Speaker 1>of part of the overall UH suffering of the universe. Still,

0:53:16.920 --> 0:53:19.480
<v Speaker 1>the author contends that the scenarios that could lead to

0:53:19.480 --> 0:53:22.919
<v Speaker 1>astronomical suffering are vague, and the conclusions we might draw

0:53:23.239 --> 0:53:26.640
<v Speaker 1>not altogether clear. On one hand, it's possible that space

0:53:26.680 --> 0:53:31.200
<v Speaker 1>colonization could result in astronomical human suffering. Uh, and then

0:53:31.239 --> 0:53:32.799
<v Speaker 1>this would this If this was the case, it would

0:53:32.840 --> 0:53:36.680
<v Speaker 1>obviously be a disvalue. On the other hand, it's possible

0:53:36.719 --> 0:53:39.440
<v Speaker 1>that that space colonization could result in an increase in

0:53:39.560 --> 0:53:43.360
<v Speaker 1>human well being, but a huge decrease in non human

0:53:43.440 --> 0:53:46.879
<v Speaker 1>well being in terms of, um, you know, the well

0:53:46.920 --> 0:53:50.480
<v Speaker 1>being of of other organisms. Uh. This, you know, because

0:53:50.520 --> 0:53:55.280
<v Speaker 1>potentially non human organisms, sentient and or non sentient digital

0:53:55.440 --> 0:53:57.839
<v Speaker 1>entities that are denied human status. So I could also

0:53:57.840 --> 0:54:01.880
<v Speaker 1>affect you know, general aies you this universe that we're imagining.

0:54:02.200 --> 0:54:04.160
<v Speaker 1>On the other hand, he also adds that such colonization

0:54:04.200 --> 0:54:07.479
<v Speaker 1>could be a force of good regarding AIES. I thought

0:54:07.480 --> 0:54:11.040
<v Speaker 1>this was interesting quote. It is also possible that space

0:54:11.080 --> 0:54:15.920
<v Speaker 1>colonization could result in the reduction of astronomical suffering if

0:54:16.000 --> 0:54:20.200
<v Speaker 1>humankind were able to, for example, detect and correct misaligned

0:54:20.239 --> 0:54:25.160
<v Speaker 1>extraterrestrial artificial intelligence, that could reduce or prevent enormous amounts

0:54:25.160 --> 0:54:29.160
<v Speaker 1>of suffering. Of course, the existence of extraterrestrial artificial intelligence

0:54:29.520 --> 0:54:33.640
<v Speaker 1>is itself also a highly uncertain proposition, So I guess

0:54:33.640 --> 0:54:35.640
<v Speaker 1>the idea here is like if we if we were

0:54:35.680 --> 0:54:39.239
<v Speaker 1>to venture out and we discover an alien AI that

0:54:39.400 --> 0:54:43.280
<v Speaker 1>you know, for instance, has created digital hell worlds fullest

0:54:43.480 --> 0:54:46.880
<v Speaker 1>of digital sentient beings that are being suffered, we could

0:54:47.320 --> 0:54:50.040
<v Speaker 1>we could correct that AI. We could wage a holy

0:54:50.120 --> 0:54:53.799
<v Speaker 1>war against that digital hell which is exactly uh, this

0:54:53.880 --> 0:54:57.879
<v Speaker 1>is actually a major plot point in the Nean Ebanks novel. Um.

0:54:58.600 --> 0:55:02.600
<v Speaker 1>Uh that that that that's that's really explored wonderfully. I've

0:55:02.600 --> 0:55:04.960
<v Speaker 1>discussed it on the show before. But but yeah, this

0:55:05.000 --> 0:55:08.040
<v Speaker 1>would be this would be one specific and granted, you know,

0:55:08.280 --> 0:55:13.560
<v Speaker 1>um far fetched scenario in which we could potentially uh

0:55:13.880 --> 0:55:18.600
<v Speaker 1>improve the state of suffering in the universe if we win.

0:55:19.680 --> 0:55:22.400
<v Speaker 1>If we're there, that's right, because yeah, because that or

0:55:22.440 --> 0:55:27.680
<v Speaker 1>the idea of encountering extraterrestrials much less extraterrestrial aies. There's

0:55:27.680 --> 0:55:30.040
<v Speaker 1>a lot of factors to consider there. Or what if

0:55:30.080 --> 0:55:33.160
<v Speaker 1>we're the bad guys and we win then then of course,

0:55:33.239 --> 0:55:36.279
<v Speaker 1>well I guess he acknowledges that could go both ways, right, Yeah, yeah,

0:55:36.320 --> 0:55:38.080
<v Speaker 1>I mean we could the other side of his yeahs

0:55:38.200 --> 0:55:41.160
<v Speaker 1>we we we sort of fulfill what has largely been

0:55:41.200 --> 0:55:44.439
<v Speaker 1>the human nature of exploration and we encounter the other

0:55:44.760 --> 0:55:48.400
<v Speaker 1>civilization and bring misery and horror to it. So he

0:55:48.440 --> 0:55:51.400
<v Speaker 1>contends that there are so many unknowns that to avoid

0:55:51.440 --> 0:55:54.920
<v Speaker 1>such colonization would ultimately be uh, it would be it

0:55:54.920 --> 0:55:57.759
<v Speaker 1>would be Pascal's Wager all over again, right, Uh, The

0:55:57.840 --> 0:56:01.000
<v Speaker 1>idea that Pascal's Wager essentially disgusted to more depth than

0:56:01.000 --> 0:56:04.040
<v Speaker 1>the show before, but essentially boiling down to, well, should

0:56:04.080 --> 0:56:06.400
<v Speaker 1>I believe in God or not believe in God? To

0:56:06.480 --> 0:56:08.000
<v Speaker 1>be on the safe side, I'll just go ahead and

0:56:08.040 --> 0:56:11.040
<v Speaker 1>believe in him just in case. Now Pascal's wager. I

0:56:11.080 --> 0:56:14.239
<v Speaker 1>think people who have boned up on their philosophy might

0:56:14.280 --> 0:56:16.440
<v Speaker 1>notice that there are a lot of hidden assumptions and

0:56:16.520 --> 0:56:19.719
<v Speaker 1>Pascal's wager that uh that make it maybe not as

0:56:19.760 --> 0:56:23.120
<v Speaker 1>forceful as it would have seemed to Pascal's audience at

0:56:23.120 --> 0:56:26.799
<v Speaker 1>the time. Yes, yeah, so yeah. He ultimately says that

0:56:26.880 --> 0:56:31.640
<v Speaker 1>we get into similar territory here, but that nevertheless, given

0:56:31.640 --> 0:56:34.279
<v Speaker 1>the dimension of risk, he says, the problem of astronomical

0:56:34.360 --> 0:56:37.480
<v Speaker 1>suffering is certainly something that we should pay attention to,

0:56:37.520 --> 0:56:40.400
<v Speaker 1>we should think about. Uh, you know that that in

0:56:40.480 --> 0:56:42.760
<v Speaker 1>leaving the planet or you just in considering the future

0:56:42.840 --> 0:56:47.160
<v Speaker 1>of humanity like that is that is one possibility that

0:56:47.280 --> 0:56:50.160
<v Speaker 1>is like one road to stagnation, that we have to

0:56:51.400 --> 0:56:54.560
<v Speaker 1>at least consider a few other ideas that he raises here.

0:56:54.760 --> 0:56:56.680
<v Speaker 1>First of all, he says, you know, he drives home

0:56:56.719 --> 0:57:00.960
<v Speaker 1>against space colonization is not a risk re venture and

0:57:01.120 --> 0:57:04.319
<v Speaker 1>shouldn't be approached as such. So yeah, even though it

0:57:04.440 --> 0:57:06.919
<v Speaker 1>is often this kind of optimistic vision in the back

0:57:06.960 --> 0:57:09.719
<v Speaker 1>of our heads that maybe we should we should try

0:57:09.719 --> 0:57:14.120
<v Speaker 1>and counterbalance that with a little bit of of of

0:57:13.680 --> 0:57:18.120
<v Speaker 1>of astronomical suffering. He also admits that it might actually

0:57:18.160 --> 0:57:21.600
<v Speaker 1>be too late in some respects, as this dream is

0:57:21.640 --> 0:57:25.760
<v Speaker 1>just so seductive to already be the implicit goal of

0:57:25.880 --> 0:57:29.840
<v Speaker 1>public as well as private space related ventures and ambitions.

0:57:30.360 --> 0:57:32.440
<v Speaker 1>And also he drives home, and this is actually, I

0:57:32.480 --> 0:57:34.720
<v Speaker 1>think something he gets into in that Ian magazine piec

0:57:34.840 --> 0:57:40.440
<v Speaker 1>wrote that a meaningful governance framework will be important. Oh yeah, well,

0:57:40.480 --> 0:57:42.560
<v Speaker 1>I mean, in that article he gets into the fact that, like,

0:57:42.600 --> 0:57:46.720
<v Speaker 1>we just really do not have a political framework establishing

0:57:46.760 --> 0:57:50.360
<v Speaker 1>authority in outer space. And we see that and even

0:57:50.400 --> 0:57:53.919
<v Speaker 1>our current headlines stuff where we're like, wo wow, there's

0:57:53.960 --> 0:57:57.360
<v Speaker 1>just there's just really no rules yet. And on one hand,

0:57:57.440 --> 0:58:00.600
<v Speaker 1>like I can see how this might feel nice, like

0:58:00.640 --> 0:58:03.600
<v Speaker 1>ohh wow. You know what, you know, the government's reach

0:58:03.720 --> 0:58:06.560
<v Speaker 1>stops at the planet, and and outer space can just

0:58:06.600 --> 0:58:10.160
<v Speaker 1>be this place of peaceful exploration without any you know,

0:58:10.280 --> 0:58:13.480
<v Speaker 1>like laws and militaries and all that. That would be great.

0:58:13.640 --> 0:58:17.240
<v Speaker 1>But as space becomes more populated with you know, people

0:58:17.520 --> 0:58:20.360
<v Speaker 1>seeking out their their own ends and their own goals

0:58:20.400 --> 0:58:23.760
<v Speaker 1>there without a legal framework for people to understand, you know,

0:58:24.200 --> 0:58:27.160
<v Speaker 1>what is allowed, what they can do, and and you know,

0:58:27.280 --> 0:58:30.760
<v Speaker 1>predict what other people will be allowed to do to them,

0:58:30.800 --> 0:58:34.320
<v Speaker 1>it starts to become you know, less less of a

0:58:34.360 --> 0:58:38.440
<v Speaker 1>final frontier and more of a wild West. Absolutely, um,

0:58:38.560 --> 0:58:40.840
<v Speaker 1>this is how covidch rounds it all out. Quote. The

0:58:40.920 --> 0:58:43.720
<v Speaker 1>overview of risks and the outline of a potential approach

0:58:43.760 --> 0:58:47.120
<v Speaker 1>to crafting governance presented in this article are preliminary at best.

0:58:47.200 --> 0:58:51.200
<v Speaker 1>Both issues, uh, the identification of colonization related risks and

0:58:51.240 --> 0:58:54.560
<v Speaker 1>the work on colonization related governance require more scholarly attention

0:58:55.440 --> 0:58:59.360
<v Speaker 1>before we can begin addressing them in practice. That attention, theoretical,

0:58:59.360 --> 0:59:02.480
<v Speaker 1>though it may see, is warranted. Space colonization is human

0:59:02.560 --> 0:59:05.920
<v Speaker 1>kind's best bet for long term survival, and today before

0:59:06.080 --> 0:59:09.240
<v Speaker 1>large scale space colonization efforts are underway, we still have

0:59:09.320 --> 0:59:13.240
<v Speaker 1>the capacity to develop the philosophical and practical guard rails

0:59:13.880 --> 0:59:17.400
<v Speaker 1>that make the worst outcomes of space colonization less likely.

0:59:17.880 --> 0:59:19.919
<v Speaker 1>And and you know I would agree with that. Yeah,

0:59:19.960 --> 0:59:23.200
<v Speaker 1>I think that totally makes sense that, like, space colonization

0:59:23.320 --> 0:59:27.840
<v Speaker 1>is something that that requires a bit of pessimistic forethought,

0:59:27.920 --> 0:59:30.520
<v Speaker 1>Like you know, people should entertain ideas of what could

0:59:30.520 --> 0:59:36.120
<v Speaker 1>go wrong and uh and explore them and plan out contingencies. Um,

0:59:36.400 --> 0:59:40.560
<v Speaker 1>especially you know, like people who aren't doing space exploration themselves,

0:59:40.560 --> 0:59:44.000
<v Speaker 1>because you might think that there there are some cognitive

0:59:44.080 --> 0:59:49.000
<v Speaker 1>and and group cognitive biases probably at work in organizations

0:59:49.040 --> 0:59:53.120
<v Speaker 1>that are personally involved in space exploration and the exploitation

0:59:53.120 --> 0:59:56.360
<v Speaker 1>of resources in space. Yeah. Plus, you know, when we

0:59:56.400 --> 0:59:59.440
<v Speaker 1>have you know, just sort of casual ideals of what

0:59:59.520 --> 1:00:02.080
<v Speaker 1>the future will be like in the back of our head. Again,

1:00:02.120 --> 1:00:03.520
<v Speaker 1>it kind of comes back to what we're talking about

1:00:03.520 --> 1:00:07.600
<v Speaker 1>earlier with its link to environmentalism and and and and

1:00:07.600 --> 1:00:09.240
<v Speaker 1>and how one could sort of use it as a

1:00:09.240 --> 1:00:13.439
<v Speaker 1>way to excuse harm to Earth's environment. You know, it's

1:00:14.160 --> 1:00:16.520
<v Speaker 1>if you have just a completely optimistic vision in the

1:00:16.520 --> 1:00:19.040
<v Speaker 1>back of your head, it can potentially skew the way

1:00:19.200 --> 1:00:22.680
<v Speaker 1>you look at the real world or consider other political

1:00:22.800 --> 1:00:26.920
<v Speaker 1>or technological issues. Yeah. Um, so, so this has been interesting.

1:00:26.960 --> 1:00:29.480
<v Speaker 1>It's got me thinking that this was a topic that

1:00:29.480 --> 1:00:31.600
<v Speaker 1>that you turned up and wanted to do so, Robert,

1:00:31.600 --> 1:00:34.080
<v Speaker 1>I'm curious, like what your opinion is, like, do you

1:00:34.120 --> 1:00:36.280
<v Speaker 1>do you come down more on one side or the other?

1:00:36.440 --> 1:00:40.120
<v Speaker 1>We obviously we've explored how there seemed to be, at

1:00:40.200 --> 1:00:43.760
<v Speaker 1>least at first glanced strong moral hazards for both of

1:00:43.800 --> 1:00:46.320
<v Speaker 1>the two options, either first staying on Earth or for

1:00:46.400 --> 1:00:49.320
<v Speaker 1>founding colonies on other objects in the Solar System, and beyond.

1:00:49.880 --> 1:00:52.160
<v Speaker 1>Do you lean one way or the other? Yeah, I

1:00:52.200 --> 1:00:56.680
<v Speaker 1>think reading about this has made me lean more towards

1:00:56.760 --> 1:00:59.960
<v Speaker 1>just the idea that we should we should be cautious

1:01:00.040 --> 1:01:02.360
<v Speaker 1>and we should think about the problems because I guess,

1:01:02.360 --> 1:01:05.840
<v Speaker 1>and you know, you know, through the consumption of science

1:01:05.840 --> 1:01:09.280
<v Speaker 1>fiction and and also you know, the futurist thought on

1:01:09.320 --> 1:01:11.240
<v Speaker 1>the subject. You know, I'd always just I think I'd

1:01:11.240 --> 1:01:13.520
<v Speaker 1>always just kind of fallen into the category of thinking, well,

1:01:14.120 --> 1:01:16.480
<v Speaker 1>you know, it's gonna be rough in many of these

1:01:16.480 --> 1:01:18.640
<v Speaker 1>cases we are talking about harsh environments, but it will

1:01:18.680 --> 1:01:20.800
<v Speaker 1>be it will be worth it, Like, you know, this

1:01:20.920 --> 1:01:24.840
<v Speaker 1>is just this is just what humans do without really

1:01:24.880 --> 1:01:28.160
<v Speaker 1>stopping to to ask, well, you know, why is that

1:01:28.200 --> 1:01:31.560
<v Speaker 1>the case? And does it have to be that hard, uh,

1:01:31.600 --> 1:01:34.440
<v Speaker 1>you know? Or or what should we potentially consider to

1:01:34.520 --> 1:01:39.280
<v Speaker 1>mitigate the suffering on these other worlds, like these various

1:01:39.280 --> 1:01:42.360
<v Speaker 1>sci fi visions, and not so much the really pessimistic

1:01:42.440 --> 1:01:44.880
<v Speaker 1>and nihilistic ones, but the more middle of the road

1:01:44.920 --> 1:01:47.000
<v Speaker 1>ones like does it have to be that way? Could

1:01:47.000 --> 1:01:50.160
<v Speaker 1>it be more? Could it be more star trek, you know,

1:01:50.720 --> 1:01:53.600
<v Speaker 1>could you lean into star Trek more? As again coming

1:01:53.600 --> 1:01:56.760
<v Speaker 1>back to the more utopian vision of the future. And

1:01:56.760 --> 1:01:59.880
<v Speaker 1>and this is something that I feel like we may

1:02:00.000 --> 1:02:04.200
<v Speaker 1>have a false sense that we have explored these problems

1:02:04.280 --> 1:02:07.080
<v Speaker 1>more than we actually have in the practical space, because

1:02:07.480 --> 1:02:11.080
<v Speaker 1>we now have lots of astronauts who have devoted their

1:02:11.120 --> 1:02:15.080
<v Speaker 1>lives to getting into and spending time in space. You know,

1:02:15.160 --> 1:02:17.120
<v Speaker 1>we have astronauts that walked on the Moon. We have

1:02:17.160 --> 1:02:20.160
<v Speaker 1>astronauts that trained to go to the International Space Station,

1:02:20.320 --> 1:02:22.400
<v Speaker 1>and they all do it voluntarily, like they want to

1:02:22.400 --> 1:02:25.240
<v Speaker 1>go there. They're not being forced despite all of the

1:02:25.280 --> 1:02:28.280
<v Speaker 1>deprivations to the experience and and all of the you know,

1:02:28.480 --> 1:02:31.120
<v Speaker 1>potentially negative health effects and so forth that come along

1:02:31.160 --> 1:02:35.040
<v Speaker 1>with these experiences, but those are in the long run,

1:02:35.160 --> 1:02:39.160
<v Speaker 1>these are actually quite limited commitments. These are people committing

1:02:39.520 --> 1:02:43.000
<v Speaker 1>themselves and themselves only to a period of I don't know,

1:02:43.040 --> 1:02:45.800
<v Speaker 1>a number of weeks or months at a time, going

1:02:45.840 --> 1:02:49.800
<v Speaker 1>into these deprived environments, these altered environments. It is a

1:02:50.120 --> 1:02:53.560
<v Speaker 1>very different thing actually to say we're going to found

1:02:53.600 --> 1:02:57.959
<v Speaker 1>a permanent or semi permanent colony within these spaces where

1:02:57.960 --> 1:03:01.720
<v Speaker 1>you not only commit yourself for much longer periods of time,

1:03:02.040 --> 1:03:06.120
<v Speaker 1>but you're also potentially committing future generations of people born

1:03:06.200 --> 1:03:09.760
<v Speaker 1>there and so forth, and you're creating a a you know,

1:03:09.840 --> 1:03:13.720
<v Speaker 1>a fragmented off new culture in a sense. And in

1:03:13.760 --> 1:03:15.920
<v Speaker 1>that we we have to engage in the sort of

1:03:16.240 --> 1:03:19.240
<v Speaker 1>long term thinking that that you know, generally doesn't come

1:03:19.320 --> 1:03:23.200
<v Speaker 1>naturally to humans, that we have to to work very

1:03:23.200 --> 1:03:25.160
<v Speaker 1>hard at. You know. I also have to say this

1:03:25.200 --> 1:03:29.360
<v Speaker 1>will probably uh factor into how I read uh a

1:03:29.440 --> 1:03:33.360
<v Speaker 1>future science science fiction treatments of off world colonies, you know,

1:03:34.800 --> 1:03:36.600
<v Speaker 1>and and and like I said that, some of these

1:03:36.600 --> 1:03:40.240
<v Speaker 1>concerns I think have already been reflected to varying degrees

1:03:40.320 --> 1:03:45.120
<v Speaker 1>in scientific science fictional creations. So um, you know, it's

1:03:45.120 --> 1:03:47.040
<v Speaker 1>not like you know, I'm saying that this is going

1:03:47.080 --> 1:03:51.520
<v Speaker 1>to to change other artists visions in all cases, but

1:03:51.640 --> 1:03:55.560
<v Speaker 1>it is additional um food for thought. In the meantime,

1:03:55.600 --> 1:03:57.840
<v Speaker 1>if you would like to check out other episodes of

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<v Speaker 1>Stuff to Blow Your Mind, well pretty so. I would

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<v Speaker 1>have directed you to the mothership to Stuff to Blow

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<v Speaker 1>Your Mind dot com. But the mothership crashed and now

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<v Speaker 1>we only have the off world colony of our our

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<v Speaker 1>I heart listing for the podcast. If you gotta Stuff

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<v Speaker 1>to Blow your Mind dot com, it will send you

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<v Speaker 1>over to there, but we have we have colonies in

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<v Speaker 1>other places as well, because you can ultimately find Stuff

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<v Speaker 1>to Blow your Mind wherever you get your podcasts and

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<v Speaker 1>wherever that happens to be, make sure you rate, review,

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<v Speaker 1>and subscribe. Those are the ways you can support those

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<v Speaker 1>little off world digital colonies, and in doing so, UH

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<v Speaker 1>support Stuff to Blow Your Mind itself huge thanks as

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<v Speaker 1>always to our excellent audio producer Seth Nicholas Johnson. If

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<v Speaker 1>you would like to get in touch with us with

1:04:41.440 --> 1:04:43.920
<v Speaker 1>feedback on this episode or any other, to suggest a

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<v Speaker 1>topic for the future, or just to say hi, you

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<v Speaker 1>can email us at contact at stuff to Blow Your

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<v Speaker 1>Mind dot Com. Stuff to Blow Your mind. It's production

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