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Speaker 1: Welcome to the Giants Huddle. Get him in hud Get

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Speaker 1: him in a huddle, Get him in New York Giants podcast.

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Speaker 1: I'm John Smolk and welcome to another episode of the

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Speaker 1: Giants Huddled Podcast. We'll get to our guests, George Sharui,

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Speaker 1: one of the great data scientists over a Pro Football Focus,

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Speaker 1: to talk some analytics in just a moment, But first

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Speaker 1: I want remind you folks out there, if you're listening

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Speaker 1: to this podcast on Giants dot com with the Giants

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Speaker 1: Bowl Black, we appreciate it. But go to your favorite

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Speaker 1: podcast platform, whatever it might be, subscribe, leave a positive

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Speaker 1: review if you're on iTunes, Rapple podcast, and those numbers

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Speaker 1: will go up and it will make this podcast bigger

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Speaker 1: and better than ever. So enough with that, let's get

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Speaker 1: to our guests. And I've been practicing this for a year,

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Speaker 1: so I'm gonna try it again. His name is George

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Speaker 1: Shahuri and he's one of the data scientists over a

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Speaker 1: Pro football focus. George and I get the little emphasis

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Speaker 1: this there on the middle. Correct. I've got to say

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Speaker 1: I've heard some real bad renditions in my life, but

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Speaker 1: that one that might be the best that I've heard.

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Speaker 1: That you clearly put in the work that that was

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Speaker 1: something to behold right there. That's about as good as

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Speaker 1: I think I can say it, because you really have

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Speaker 1: to have sort of grown up speaking Arabic to fully

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Speaker 1: like know how to sit. I did not so well done.

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Speaker 1: I will I will credit my my diverse Brooklyn, New

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Speaker 1: York roots for for being able to do that. All right, George,

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Speaker 1: Let's start with giant specific stuff first before we get

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Speaker 1: into some of the general analytic stuff you guys are

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Speaker 1: doing over there, which I think is really interesting. We

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Speaker 1: know what you guys generally think about the running game,

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Speaker 1: and you can kind of, you know, talk about that

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Speaker 1: in your answer to this specific question on the Giants.

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Speaker 1: What's the best way in the modern NFL for an

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Speaker 1: NFL team to utilize a running back like Sae Kwon Barkley.

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Speaker 1: That's a great question. I think that's a question that

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Speaker 1: a lot of teams should be asking themselves, particularly one

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Speaker 1: sort of drafted running back in the first round. One

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Speaker 1: of the ways that I kind of look at this

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Speaker 1: is what are the running backs that have been the

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Speaker 1: most valuable over the past few seasons, and must have

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Speaker 1: been guys like David Johnson three seasons ago where he

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Speaker 1: was getting down field in the receiving game, because that's

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Speaker 1: where the individual talents and ability of the running backs

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Speaker 1: are the most valuable. Right, the running game is so

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Speaker 1: much about running in the right situation. Am sure, we'll

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Speaker 1: get into this a little bit later, how good your

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Speaker 1: run blocking is, all those things, But in the in

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Speaker 1: the passing game, right the receiver has to be able

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Speaker 1: to collect targets downfield. That is what generates value in

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Speaker 1: the NFL. And so that's exactly what say Quan would

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Speaker 1: be best off doing. The issue, I think, and when

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Speaker 1: we look back last season, was that that that really

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Speaker 1: didn't happen. He managed through volume and sheer talent and

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Speaker 1: ability to climb into that top five in terms of

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Speaker 1: value among running backs using our wins about replacement model,

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Speaker 1: But there were some real inefficiencies to his game, and

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Speaker 1: I'll explain it this way. So I looked at the

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Speaker 1: running backs that have hundred plus targets, and I looked

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Speaker 1: at their average depths of target in other words, how

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Speaker 1: far downfield on average where they being targeted. And Sa

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Speaker 1: Kuan is just barely just barely passed the line of

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Speaker 1: scrimmage where guys like Christian McCaffrey, Alvin Kamara, David Johnson.

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Speaker 1: As I mentioned from a couple of years ago, we're

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Speaker 1: getting two three four yards down field on average per target,

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Speaker 1: and that is one of the biggest predictors. It's not

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Speaker 1: the biggest predictor for whether a target is going to

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Speaker 1: be successful, whether it's going to generate value. To kind

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Speaker 1: of double down on that, another way to think about

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Speaker 1: it is you're trying to gain first downs, right, so

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Speaker 1: I can get how far behind the first down marker

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Speaker 1: you're being targeted. Essentially, how much work does receiver have

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Speaker 1: to do after just getting open and making the catch

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Speaker 1: to make a first down? And say Kwon Barkley by

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Speaker 1: far of that group of top five running back targeted

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Speaker 1: the furthest behind the line to gain almost ten yards

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Speaker 1: on average. So for him to just come close to

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Speaker 1: generating value, he's got to be herculean. Now, the cool

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Speaker 1: thing is, at sake, on is remarkably good, but you're

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Speaker 1: just not giving him a chance to generate value by

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Speaker 1: forcing him to do things that no you know human

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Speaker 1: could possibly be able to do, which is to you know,

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Speaker 1: gain ten ten yards after getting open and catching the ball.

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Speaker 1: At the NFL level. It's just a really tough thing

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Speaker 1: to do. So one of the ways that I would

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Speaker 1: think about doing that is putting him in the slot more,

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Speaker 1: having him run more receiver routes, not using him as

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Speaker 1: sort of this third option in the passing game, but

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Speaker 1: think about how can we feature him in the passing game.

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Speaker 1: Obviously there's a big hole that's going to be left

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Speaker 1: by Odell Beckham Jr. A guy that could get downfield.

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Speaker 1: Certainly isn't Odell Beckham Jr. As a receiver, but he's

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Speaker 1: pretty darn good. So I think there's definitely some ways

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Speaker 1: to increase the value that he provides the Giants. And

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Speaker 1: I'll get back to the running game specifically in a second,

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Speaker 1: but I want to stick with the passing gave Mere

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Speaker 1: for a second. As you mentioned, you know Odell Beckham Jr.

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Speaker 1: Not Being here, And when I look at the receivers

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Speaker 1: on this roster, you see gold Atat and Storing Shepherd

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Speaker 1: very similar on how they're built, and I think the

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Speaker 1: the type of route concepts they tend to run. But

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Speaker 1: the other guy I look at, George, is a guy

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Speaker 1: that projects maybe as a potential mismatch that maybe traditionally

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Speaker 1: you don't think of as a downfield threat, but I

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Speaker 1: think the Giants can use them that way. Is a

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Speaker 1: guy like Evan Ingram When you guys look at the

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Speaker 1: analytics on tight ends in terms of being more of

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Speaker 1: a big play guy than uh, you know, ball control,

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Speaker 1: third and short type of guy. How do you project

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Speaker 1: Ingram in that role and do you think he does

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Speaker 1: have potential to become that type of mismatch player to

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Speaker 1: help make up for the loss of Odel Beckham Jr. Well,

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Speaker 1: all you have to do is look a little further

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Speaker 1: north to see the possible, you know, outcome of having

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Speaker 1: a tight end that can get down field. Right. Rob

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Speaker 1: Gronkowski laughed the field in terms of twenty plus yard

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Speaker 1: games from the tight end position. I mean it was

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Speaker 1: just I think he almost doubled Travis Kelsey and have

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Speaker 1: the exact number in front of me. But he was

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Speaker 1: a deep threat or Tom Brady and the Patriots they

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Speaker 1: utilized them in that way. And of course he was

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Speaker 1: a physical freak. Evan Ingram maybe he not Rob Gronkowski necessarily,

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Speaker 1: but he's obviously got some physical tools and the tight

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Speaker 1: end position is one that is sort of an inefficiency

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Speaker 1: in the NFL. I think it's becoming less so as

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Speaker 1: teams sort of clue into the ability to put you know,

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Speaker 1: get them online backers and create mismatches. But the tight

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Speaker 1: end position is a very valuable target in the NFL,

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Speaker 1: whether it's from the slot or in line, because you're

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Speaker 1: able to get those mismatches. So I agree with you.

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Speaker 1: I think they need to push that advantage. Whenever he

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Speaker 1: has a mismatch. The issue that he's had has been dropped.

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Speaker 1: So he's made those big plays, but he's also dropped

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Speaker 1: a lot of passes, and that is obviously an easy

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Speaker 1: way to kill value. The good news is that drop

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Speaker 1: rate is not something that's generally very stable among pass catchers.

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Speaker 1: So you know, he had a bad season. You know,

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Speaker 1: you could certainly have a bounce back um in terms

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Speaker 1: of drops. It's a small sample thing, you know, I

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Speaker 1: wouldn't uh, you know, it's not like a Marii Cooper

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Speaker 1: hasn't managed to still be productive at d having one

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Speaker 1: of the worst drop season that we ever saw. So

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Speaker 1: I think pushing those mismatches. Guys that can get downfield

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Speaker 1: just have to be outside receivers. You can get guys

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Speaker 1: downfield from the slot, you can get guys downfield from

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Speaker 1: the tight end position or even the running back position.

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Speaker 1: But they're certainly gonna have to do so because without

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Speaker 1: Odell Beckham Jr. On the field over the past five seasons,

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Speaker 1: they have been the worst offense in the NFL. And

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Speaker 1: it's not particularly close. Uh, passing offense is what I

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Speaker 1: mean there, But the worst passing offense in the NFL

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Speaker 1: without Oto Beckham Jr. Is not is not what you

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Speaker 1: want to hear if you're looking at this season being producted.

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Speaker 1: I'm trying to figure out a good way to go

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Speaker 1: next year, and I guess I'll go here because I

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Speaker 1: think the last four games of last year, when it

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Speaker 1: Old Beckham was not on field, the Giant's offense was

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Speaker 1: actually fairly productive. And look, you're never going to be

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Speaker 1: better losing a guy like Beckham, but it looked like

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Speaker 1: in the second half of the year the Giants did

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Speaker 1: figure something out. They ran a lot more play action

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Speaker 1: on early downs out of big personnel things like that.

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Speaker 1: Can you talk a little bit about what's your research

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Speaker 1: shown about the impact of a guy like Barkley on

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Speaker 1: play action? Is there a correlation and just in terms

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Speaker 1: of how play action can generally impact an offense and

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Speaker 1: whether you think that could be a good path of

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Speaker 1: the Giants to go down this year. Well, that's a

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Speaker 1: really interesting two prompt question because one is one answer

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Speaker 1: is absolutely no, it doesn't matter, and the other answer

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Speaker 1: is absolutely yes, you should do it more. There is

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Speaker 1: no evidence out there and has been tested by by

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Speaker 1: many different people, including us over your PFF, as to

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Speaker 1: whether you know running a lot or running successfully helps

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Speaker 1: you with your play action game. It's just no evidence

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Speaker 1: that that is the case. Um on a play by

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Speaker 1: play level, on a first half, do I run a

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Speaker 1: lot and then you know my play action is successful

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Speaker 1: in the second half? That that doesn't happen to be

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Speaker 1: the case. George, George, George, Real Fast, Real Fast? Does

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Speaker 1: is there an inverse relationship? Does running poorly adversely affect

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Speaker 1: the play action or is there no relationship at all? No,

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Speaker 1: there's just I got it, There's no relation. Right, It's

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Speaker 1: just like what matters for your passing game? Well, it

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Speaker 1: probably matters whether your quarterback is good, whether you're you

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Speaker 1: know pass Really what matters and play action and we

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Speaker 1: saw this with the Rams I think quite bit was

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Speaker 1: can you can you set up the blocks? Right? Can

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Speaker 1: you pass luck because play action takes longer developed. And

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Speaker 1: really what the Rams sort of tried to do with

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Speaker 1: it was use play action to create clean pockets for

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Speaker 1: Jared got and when some of those uh tackles started losing, um,

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Speaker 1: you know, it really caused some problems for him. So

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Speaker 1: that those are the things that really matter in in

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Speaker 1: the play action game. And the kind of the idea

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Speaker 1: that you have to set up play action by running

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Speaker 1: the ball is just not the case, and probably in

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Speaker 1: large part because the run game has just been set

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Speaker 1: up and established by years and years of of beating

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Speaker 1: into people's brains that you've got to run the ball

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Speaker 1: and stop the run. Right, So defenses come out and

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Speaker 1: they're they're amped to stop the run, and then they

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Speaker 1: stopped the run and they're even more excited to stop

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Speaker 1: it again because they're pumped up. So you know, it's

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Speaker 1: a self perpetua perpetuating thing. And I think that actually

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Speaker 1: happens for offenses too, So I think if you you know,

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Speaker 1: we saw this with the Cowboys. Actually it's really interesting.

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Speaker 1: When they didn't have Zeke on the field, they ran

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Speaker 1: amazingly low amount of play action. It was like the

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Speaker 1: lowest rate in the league. I think other than the

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Speaker 1: Steelers without speak on the field, and they were terrible

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Speaker 1: at it, but they actually weren't a worse offense overall.

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Speaker 1: So they stopped doing something that generally is more efficient,

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Speaker 1: play action, and they were bad at it, but they

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Speaker 1: managed to be just as good of an offense UM,

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Speaker 1: you know, with with random running backs like Rob Smith

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Speaker 1: and Darren McFadden and Alfred Morris on the field UM,

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Speaker 1: which which I think speaks to the idea that you

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Speaker 1: really don't want to believe all the things you hear

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Speaker 1: because it might actually impact the way you play the

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Speaker 1: game and the way you call plays UM. Because the

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Speaker 1: play action game is something that is really efficient and

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Speaker 1: it should be done a lot more. We saw the

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Speaker 1: Rams push play action rates UH through about I don't know,

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Speaker 1: thirteen weeks last season, and they were amazing at it.

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Speaker 1: So I would certainly run play action more. I think

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Speaker 1: that'd be something that if you're a Giants team with

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Speaker 1: a guy like Daniel Jones eventually taking the reins, he's

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Speaker 1: got some mobility back there, that would I would focus

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Speaker 1: on a really heavy play action UM system, allow guys

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Speaker 1: like Evan Ingram to get across the field, guys like

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Speaker 1: golden tape to get across the field, Sae Kwon Barkley

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Speaker 1: to get across the field and create the space. Allow

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Speaker 1: what the rams did right, and then give them some

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Speaker 1: room to make some plays and you know, take advantage

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Speaker 1: of you know, I think what you know Daniel Jones

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Speaker 1: has at least shown bits and pieces of which is

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Speaker 1: that he you know, he avoid some of those you know,

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Speaker 1: negative plays, um and he's obviously do had success throwing

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Speaker 1: short so you know, you open up some of those

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Speaker 1: lanes and make some plays available. Is there an impact

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Speaker 1: on an offense either in the rung game or pass game.

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Speaker 1: Is there any correlation based on what the defense is

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Speaker 1: doing in terms of guys in the box, single high,

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Speaker 1: too high, crown the line of scrimmage. Is there a

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Speaker 1: pattern where that either adversely effects and run game helps

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Speaker 1: an opposing passing game. Have you guys been able to

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Speaker 1: study any of that? Oh, that's I was gonna say.

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Speaker 1: I mean, I talked about the offensive side of the

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Speaker 1: ball in terms of you know, predicting rushing success. But

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Speaker 1: that is you know, the defensive personnel, which a lot

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Speaker 1: of it is kind of matching what the offense brings

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Speaker 1: out there, is the other is basically the reason that matters. Right.

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Speaker 1: So when we talk about, well, you want to run

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Speaker 1: the ball at a pass set, why is that? Well,

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Speaker 1: it's because when you show up in a pass set,

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Speaker 1: the defense matches with you know, a a passing you know, uh,

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Speaker 1: personnel group, and so they don't have eight guys nine

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Speaker 1: guys in the box, So you want your box count.

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Speaker 1: Is is the thing that can basically tell you whether

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Speaker 1: you should run in certain situations not um, far more

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Speaker 1: than whether you believe you're running back is generational or not.

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Speaker 1: So you hit the nail on the head there. When

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Speaker 1: you're thinking about out running the ball. I think the

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Speaker 1: NFL UM has largely had it backwards for a while.

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Speaker 1: What you want to do is run the ball in

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Speaker 1: short yards situations, but you want to do so against

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Speaker 1: non non crowded boxes, So you want to spread them

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Speaker 1: out to run the ball in those shortyards situations. Um.

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Speaker 1: That that is the place where running is more effective

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Speaker 1: than passing. It's not second and long, it's not first down. Um,

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Speaker 1: those are not the places that you want to run

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Speaker 1: to run the ball. Uh. But yet that's where you

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Speaker 1: know the NFL thinks you've got to run to stay

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Speaker 1: on schedule. This is gonna be a very broad question.

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Speaker 1: So you can take any direction you want. You mentioned

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Speaker 1: in terms of play action, and you need an effective

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Speaker 1: offensive line to pull it off because a lot of

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Speaker 1: times those are slower developing players. Guys are dragging across

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Speaker 1: the field stuff like that. We know how offensive line

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Speaker 1: play affects the running game just in general. When you

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Speaker 1: take a look at all your analytics, how important is

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Speaker 1: consistently good offensive line play or maybe even just not

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Speaker 1: having a poor offensive line to the overall efficiency of

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Speaker 1: an offense in the National Football League. It's a great question.

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Speaker 1: One of the things that is really interesting is you

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Speaker 1: can get bought with an average offensive black that's not

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Speaker 1: an issue. It's the brutally bad offensive line that or

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Speaker 1: offensive linemen that can torpedo things. So going from you know,

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Speaker 1: great average, that's not a huge deal. A lot of

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Speaker 1: pressure rate is owned by the quarterback. You know, how

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Speaker 1: how well do they get to their first read, do

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Speaker 1: they kind of understand when the blitz is coming, things

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Speaker 1: like that, So the pressure rate is actually more stable

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Speaker 1: from quarterback to quarterback. Then it's from like offensive line

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Speaker 1: offensive line, which I think is interesting and tells us

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Speaker 1: a lot about the importance of the offensive line. And

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Speaker 1: then there's of course the scheme, right, so it almost

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Speaker 1: goes both ways. And the Rams again are a really

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Speaker 1: good example of this. They they sort of hid some

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Speaker 1: of their deficiencies at the offensive line position with this

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Speaker 1: really effective play action scheme where they really sold the

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Speaker 1: outside zone, then gave their guys a split second more,

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Speaker 1: gave Jared Goff is split second more to sit back

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Speaker 1: there in a clean pocket. That's why Jared Goff average

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Speaker 1: more time in a clean pocket for dropback than any

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Speaker 1: other quarterback, and he was abysmal as our most quarterbacks

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Speaker 1: under pressure. So that's that's super valuable. So I would

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Speaker 1: think of it more um like this. I want to

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Speaker 1: avoid having a san offensive line because an injury is

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Speaker 1: going to happen on the offensive line. That's just a fact.

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Speaker 1: And I really don't want to you know overpay uh

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Speaker 1: that you know left or right tackle who I don't

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Speaker 1: really feel strongly about, because then you've you've allocated a

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Speaker 1: lot of that capital and you need those five guys.

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Speaker 1: You can't have just one guy be really solid. You

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Speaker 1: need them all, need that continuity, as you said, because

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Speaker 1: one really bad offensive lineman is what hurts you average

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Speaker 1: across the line does not the passing game. And this

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Speaker 1: is another broad question. Better for an offense over all

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Speaker 1: to have a shorter or more efficient pass game or

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Speaker 1: to be an offense that constantly and consistently tries to

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Speaker 1: challenge down the field for big plays. It's what your

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Speaker 1: quarterback does best. You know. It's if you are who's

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Speaker 1: a good example of this. I think if you're the

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Speaker 1: Carolina Panthers, right, the idea that Cam Newton needs to

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Speaker 1: be better throwing you know, checkdowns to his uh to

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Speaker 1: Christian McCaffrey's be more accurate doing that. Yeah, sure, but

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Speaker 1: what he does is he makes big plays. So give

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Speaker 1: him chances to make big plays. Um. Jamis Winston is

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Speaker 1: another guy, right, But if you've got a Drew Brees

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Speaker 1: back there who is so lethally accurate on those short passes,

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Speaker 1: then then do that right scheme opened those short quick throws.

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Speaker 1: Let him be incredibly accurate and let his receivers make

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Speaker 1: plays after the catch. And if you're a guy that

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Speaker 1: you know that's not your forte, throw it down field

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Speaker 1: and let your receivers make plays. Uh, you know at

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Speaker 1: the catch point. I think it's it's sort of a

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Speaker 1: misnomer that, you know, look at Andy Reid in Kansas City,

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Speaker 1: we've got different That offense was with Alex Smith and

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Speaker 1: then with Top Mahomes. Good point, but they were both.

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Speaker 1: They were both top five offenses. Now Tom Mahomes better

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Speaker 1: than Alex Smith, and he's really good throwing you know,

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Speaker 1: those short, clean pocket throws which I think people sort

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Speaker 1: of sweep under the rugs. So they were better with

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Speaker 1: Cat Mahomes. But Alex Smith was lead and passer rating

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Speaker 1: with the Chiefs. So um, you know, you can do

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Speaker 1: it both ways. It's just a matter of maximizing which

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Speaker 1: your quarterback has offer. Well, you just mentioned about underrating

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Speaker 1: a quarterback's ability to make those easy what people think

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Speaker 1: they're easy passes out of a clean pocket. What are

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Speaker 1: some of the things you found in predicting and analyzing

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Speaker 1: quarterback performance that are the most important things a quarterback

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Speaker 1: needs to do well if he's going to be an

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Speaker 1: effective top ten quarterback that can lead a top offense

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Speaker 1: in the league. It's it's exactly that right. So what

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Speaker 1: I what I always start off with is I asked

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Speaker 1: people what is the most common situation that a quarterback

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Speaker 1: finds itself in and even if you have a terrible

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Speaker 1: offensive life. Right, So think about the Cardinals last year.

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Speaker 1: Josh Rosen, under pressure of the time, maybe a little

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Speaker 1: bit more most quick pressures in the entire NFL given up,

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Speaker 1: but he was still in a clean pocket more often

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Speaker 1: than he was in a pressure pocket. And so how

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Speaker 1: you perform from a clean pocket is an incredibly stable

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Speaker 1: component of quarterback play, whereas in a pressure pocket, things

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Speaker 1: are not, you know, very normal, right, All pressures are

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Speaker 1: sort of unique like snowflakes, whereas clean pockets you buy

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Speaker 1: in large kind of know what they look like. And

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Speaker 1: so clean pocket play performs from a clean pocket is

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Speaker 1: one of those things. It's not particularly sexy, right, A

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Speaker 1: lot of those plays you know you're able to hit

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Speaker 1: your first read. It sort of seems like, hey, anybody

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Speaker 1: could do it, But that's not the case. Right. If

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Speaker 1: if anyone could do it, then you have a heck

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Speaker 1: of a lot more quarterbacks going from college to the

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Speaker 1: pro and being successful. But you see guys who just

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Speaker 1: they are not able to be accurate on work open throws,

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Speaker 1: and that is a real kind of derailer of an offense, right,

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Speaker 1: because those are the plays that happened the most frequently,

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Speaker 1: and so you need to be able to hit them.

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Speaker 1: And that I think gets me to the biggest, uh

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Speaker 1: most stable component of quarterback play, which is avoiding what

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Speaker 1: we call negatively graded plays. So from a throwing perspective,

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Speaker 1: imagine a quarterback has a guy that's opened, you know,

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Speaker 1: eight yards down field, and he throws the pass that

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Speaker 1: is uncatchable, right, that is, you can't have that because

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Speaker 1: you don't give yourself a chance on that play. So

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Speaker 1: the quarterbacks that minimize those mistakes, right, it totally derail

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Speaker 1: a potential positive game. Those are the most that's the

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Speaker 1: most valuable component of quarterback play. So guys like Drew Brees,

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Speaker 1: Pat Mahomes, Tom Brady, um, Aaron Rodgers not as much

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Speaker 1: last year, but in his really good years always consistently

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Speaker 1: at the top of the list in terms of avoiding

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Speaker 1: negatively ed plays. And it is the most stable component

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Speaker 1: of quarterback place. So when you're looking at whether a

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Speaker 1: guy's coming from college to pro or just from year

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Speaker 1: to year at the pro level, I want to look

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Speaker 1: at how did you perform from a queen pocket and

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Speaker 1: how did you how well did you avoid those negatively

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Speaker 1: created plays, Those uncatchable passes, taking bad sacks um, you know,

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Speaker 1: allowing you know, strip strip sack fumble stuff like that,

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Speaker 1: those plays that just give you no shot at gaining

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Speaker 1: positive yardage or positive expected points. And I think this

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Speaker 1: brings us back to one of the I'll call it

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Speaker 1: a big revelation. You guys had a lot of your

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Speaker 1: data resources year that you think, in a lot of

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Speaker 1: ways coverage is more important than pass rush when determining

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Speaker 1: the effectiveness as a defense. So why don't you tell

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Speaker 1: the fans a little bit how you guys came to

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Speaker 1: that conclusion and why you think that's the case. Well,

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Speaker 1: this is a hot button topic, and so I want

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Speaker 1: to rephrase what you said. I didn't think that we

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Speaker 1: had no idea. This was a question that we had.

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Speaker 1: And this gets it something a little bit bigger, which

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Speaker 1: is the kind of disc connect between ball minds and

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Speaker 1: you know, people that live on spreadsheets, even though I

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Speaker 1: avoid spreadsheets like the plague um. But it's the idea that, oh,

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Speaker 1: I had this original idea that was totally different that

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Speaker 1: what you thought. Because you're an idiot, you couldn't possibly

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Speaker 1: know because you didn't take you know, COLP two in

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Speaker 1: high school that's a ridiculous statement. Really, no one knows

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Speaker 1: a whole lot of anything, and you've got to go

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Speaker 1: test these conjectures and see what you find out. I

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Speaker 1: would be lying if I told you, Yeah, I went

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Speaker 1: into it and I just knew. I knew the running

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Speaker 1: game didn't matter. I knew we didn't set up play action.

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Speaker 1: I knew that pass coverage was more valuable than than

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Speaker 1: pass rush. I didn't. But you have to be open minded.

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Speaker 1: And when the numbers tell you something you know that

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00:21:45,720 --> 00:21:48,800
Speaker 1: is counterintuitive, you've got to check them obviously, make sure

432
00:21:48,840 --> 00:21:51,520
Speaker 1: that you've done everything soundly, But then you've got to

433
00:21:51,560 --> 00:21:54,440
Speaker 1: be willing to to change what you believe. So when

434
00:21:54,440 --> 00:21:58,720
Speaker 1: we went into this study, and we're uniquely lucky to

435
00:21:58,840 --> 00:22:01,880
Speaker 1: have grading at a play by play and player by

436
00:22:01,920 --> 00:22:04,840
Speaker 1: player and facet by facet level to sort of look

437
00:22:04,880 --> 00:22:08,240
Speaker 1: at how well players performed as pass rushers and in

438
00:22:08,320 --> 00:22:12,119
Speaker 1: coverage because you know, the box score can obviously it

439
00:22:12,200 --> 00:22:15,600
Speaker 1: does gloss over that, and so um, you know, we

440
00:22:15,600 --> 00:22:19,120
Speaker 1: were able to say, what is a better predictor of winning,

441
00:22:19,119 --> 00:22:22,520
Speaker 1: What is a better predictor of defensive success being a

442
00:22:22,560 --> 00:22:25,680
Speaker 1: good pass rush team or being a good coverage team,

443
00:22:25,720 --> 00:22:29,920
Speaker 1: And it really isn't particularly close. Coverage just does such

444
00:22:29,960 --> 00:22:33,480
Speaker 1: a better job of predicting defensive success going forward, whether

445
00:22:33,560 --> 00:22:36,200
Speaker 1: the week to week or season two season than pass

446
00:22:36,280 --> 00:22:39,720
Speaker 1: rush does. UM. Teams that were in the top in

447
00:22:39,800 --> 00:22:43,880
Speaker 1: terms of coverage grade but in the bottom pass rush

448
00:22:43,880 --> 00:22:47,040
Speaker 1: grade won two more games on average than the inverse.

449
00:22:47,080 --> 00:22:48,680
Speaker 1: In other words, the team being really good at pass

450
00:22:48,760 --> 00:22:51,679
Speaker 1: rush but not good at coverage. UM. That's kind of

451
00:22:51,680 --> 00:22:55,040
Speaker 1: a high level way of thinking about why or the

452
00:22:55,320 --> 00:22:57,600
Speaker 1: reason that not the reason that the evidence that pass

453
00:22:57,680 --> 00:23:01,440
Speaker 1: rush is not as important UM. And it was honestly

454
00:23:01,520 --> 00:23:04,320
Speaker 1: surprising because when we watch the game of football, what

455
00:23:04,359 --> 00:23:06,320
Speaker 1: do we see. We see the quarterback and we see

456
00:23:06,320 --> 00:23:08,960
Speaker 1: what happens around him, and that's the pass rushers, and

457
00:23:09,280 --> 00:23:13,160
Speaker 1: we don't even see the coverage, you know, unless there's uh,

458
00:23:13,200 --> 00:23:15,520
Speaker 1: you know, a target, so we obviously you know, there's

459
00:23:15,520 --> 00:23:17,520
Speaker 1: all those other guys on the field that obviously matter.

460
00:23:17,760 --> 00:23:21,000
Speaker 1: And unless it's a real innovative, you know, producer of

461
00:23:21,080 --> 00:23:22,919
Speaker 1: the football podcast, you know, like what we see on

462
00:23:22,960 --> 00:23:25,960
Speaker 1: Sunday Night Football where they have that coverage sack where

463
00:23:25,960 --> 00:23:28,280
Speaker 1: they show you all the coverages on the field, you know,

464
00:23:28,320 --> 00:23:31,000
Speaker 1: that's just that doesn't happen that often. Um, and that

465
00:23:31,080 --> 00:23:33,440
Speaker 1: I think is a big reason why just in our minds,

466
00:23:33,160 --> 00:23:36,679
Speaker 1: pass rush fields like it's more valuable to sack. The

467
00:23:36,720 --> 00:23:40,760
Speaker 1: fumbles are big plays, but the coverage players are always

468
00:23:40,880 --> 00:23:43,640
Speaker 1: on the opposite end of the most valuable play at football,

469
00:23:43,880 --> 00:23:47,760
Speaker 1: and that's forward pass and they are no matter whether

470
00:23:47,800 --> 00:23:50,320
Speaker 1: the pass rush gets to the quarterback or not. On

471
00:23:50,400 --> 00:23:53,879
Speaker 1: about you know, well, what sacks don't happen that often, right,

472
00:23:53,920 --> 00:23:56,679
Speaker 1: So whenever there's a throw, right, it's the coverage that

473
00:23:56,760 --> 00:23:59,120
Speaker 1: is on the other end of that pressure only happens

474
00:23:59,560 --> 00:24:02,520
Speaker 1: uh little overt of the time. So you've got seventy

475
00:24:02,560 --> 00:24:04,359
Speaker 1: percent of these plays where a quarterback is in a

476
00:24:04,400 --> 00:24:07,840
Speaker 1: clean pocket that's on the coverage guy. Right, you cannot

477
00:24:08,240 --> 00:24:10,879
Speaker 1: lose in coverage. You're gonna give up huge plays in

478
00:24:10,920 --> 00:24:14,920
Speaker 1: the NFL today. Um, It's just it makes sense once

479
00:24:15,000 --> 00:24:17,360
Speaker 1: you start to break it down, but it's certainly not intuitive.

480
00:24:17,800 --> 00:24:19,320
Speaker 1: All right, I got some big time I got some

481
00:24:19,359 --> 00:24:21,840
Speaker 1: big picture questions here that I'm curious in terms of

482
00:24:21,880 --> 00:24:23,639
Speaker 1: if they're not you guys have found any data on

483
00:24:23,720 --> 00:24:27,920
Speaker 1: them yet. Let's start here. You talk about the benefit

484
00:24:27,960 --> 00:24:30,520
Speaker 1: of passing on first down and stuff like that, are

485
00:24:30,560 --> 00:24:32,199
Speaker 1: we going to get to a point, George, or is

486
00:24:32,240 --> 00:24:35,000
Speaker 1: there a threshold in terms of run pass splits and

487
00:24:35,080 --> 00:24:38,639
Speaker 1: percentage where teams are going to get that out of

488
00:24:38,680 --> 00:24:41,520
Speaker 1: their head to automatically have the first thing in their mind,

489
00:24:41,640 --> 00:24:44,000
Speaker 1: I need to stop the run on first down, where

490
00:24:44,080 --> 00:24:48,359
Speaker 1: first down passing and even play ash becomes somewhat less effective.

491
00:24:48,400 --> 00:24:51,160
Speaker 1: What do you think the threshold there is for run

492
00:24:51,160 --> 00:24:54,920
Speaker 1: pass splits where teams eventually stop thinking the way they

493
00:24:54,920 --> 00:24:58,639
Speaker 1: do on the defensive side of the ball. Well, I

494
00:24:58,680 --> 00:25:01,080
Speaker 1: would like to find out. I would push that threshold

495
00:25:01,080 --> 00:25:02,960
Speaker 1: as far as I could. I think, you know what

496
00:25:03,840 --> 00:25:06,480
Speaker 1: talking to some um, you know, people that have played

497
00:25:06,520 --> 00:25:09,359
Speaker 1: the position. Um the guy who now coaches at the

498
00:25:10,119 --> 00:25:13,040
Speaker 1: UH with Sean McVeigh and Los Angeles, Zach Robinson, who

499
00:25:13,040 --> 00:25:16,119
Speaker 1: worked with us for multiple years and was kind of

500
00:25:16,119 --> 00:25:18,480
Speaker 1: a pioneer of a lot of the things that we

501
00:25:18,520 --> 00:25:21,920
Speaker 1: do from a ball location charting perspective with quarterbacks, talks

502
00:25:21,960 --> 00:25:24,360
Speaker 1: a lot about the you know, mental and physical components

503
00:25:24,400 --> 00:25:27,359
Speaker 1: of quarterback play in the past and game. And you know,

504
00:25:27,400 --> 00:25:30,240
Speaker 1: the run game kind of serves as a mental and

505
00:25:30,280 --> 00:25:33,320
Speaker 1: physical break for the quarterback, and so I think that

506
00:25:33,320 --> 00:25:36,119
Speaker 1: that is an important component of it. So thinking about

507
00:25:36,119 --> 00:25:39,719
Speaker 1: what the threshold is for your quarterback is important. And

508
00:25:39,760 --> 00:25:41,800
Speaker 1: then what I would do is say, okay, this is

509
00:25:41,840 --> 00:25:43,840
Speaker 1: the number of you know, there's a number of maximum

510
00:25:43,880 --> 00:25:47,400
Speaker 1: number of dropbacks I can have from my quarterback. Where

511
00:25:47,400 --> 00:25:51,080
Speaker 1: where can I you know, service those breaks essentially? And

512
00:25:51,080 --> 00:25:53,280
Speaker 1: so I would look at the places where the run

513
00:25:53,400 --> 00:25:56,720
Speaker 1: is the most effective, basically third and fourth and short,

514
00:25:57,400 --> 00:26:00,160
Speaker 1: and that's where I'm running the ball. And then I'm

515
00:26:00,200 --> 00:26:02,720
Speaker 1: looking at situations you know that's obviously not going to

516
00:26:02,800 --> 00:26:05,920
Speaker 1: take care of probably all the breaks I need, um.

517
00:26:06,000 --> 00:26:07,879
Speaker 1: And so then I'm looking at, you know, whether it

518
00:26:07,960 --> 00:26:12,080
Speaker 1: be first and ten or second in medium, what are

519
00:26:12,200 --> 00:26:15,480
Speaker 1: the defensive components that I need in order to give

520
00:26:15,520 --> 00:26:18,040
Speaker 1: me the advantage necessary to run. So we talked about

521
00:26:18,040 --> 00:26:21,440
Speaker 1: those light boxes right binding up in in the past

522
00:26:21,480 --> 00:26:25,840
Speaker 1: sets to run the ball. But I am maximizing, I

523
00:26:25,880 --> 00:26:29,120
Speaker 1: am pushing that that limit because as we saw last year,

524
00:26:29,160 --> 00:26:32,240
Speaker 1: passing became more prevalent, but it was also more successful.

525
00:26:32,440 --> 00:26:36,159
Speaker 1: So we haven't seen that. We haven't come come close.

526
00:26:36,240 --> 00:26:40,520
Speaker 1: Maybe a little bit um you know, uh hopeful, but

527
00:26:40,600 --> 00:26:42,520
Speaker 1: I don't, I don't you know, we certainly haven't seen

528
00:26:42,560 --> 00:26:47,639
Speaker 1: the threshold of maximizing passing offenses. UM, certainly not with

529
00:26:47,760 --> 00:26:50,600
Speaker 1: play action yet I think they're you know, there's more

530
00:26:50,640 --> 00:26:53,119
Speaker 1: young coaches coming into the NFL that are more willing to,

531
00:26:53,760 --> 00:26:56,720
Speaker 1: you know, I think, experiment and try some new things. Um,

532
00:26:56,760 --> 00:26:59,040
Speaker 1: but I would push that limit, man, because we haven't

533
00:26:59,040 --> 00:27:01,159
Speaker 1: found it yet. It's funny. I think this brings me

534
00:27:01,240 --> 00:27:04,840
Speaker 1: to my next question, which is taking your overall league

535
00:27:04,840 --> 00:27:07,760
Speaker 1: wide trends and statistics and patterns and and things like

536
00:27:07,800 --> 00:27:09,919
Speaker 1: that and and and the daddy and measure, and then

537
00:27:09,960 --> 00:27:12,600
Speaker 1: you have to apply to individual games with individual players,

538
00:27:12,640 --> 00:27:15,919
Speaker 1: the individual talents and individual matchups against the team that

539
00:27:15,960 --> 00:27:18,440
Speaker 1: you're playing. So I guess from a team perspective, and

540
00:27:18,480 --> 00:27:20,160
Speaker 1: I think we saw it wasn't the playoff game last

541
00:27:20,200 --> 00:27:23,560
Speaker 1: year when the Chargers went all dbs with no linebackers

542
00:27:23,560 --> 00:27:25,280
Speaker 1: and the Patriots ramp like eight hundred yards And I

543
00:27:25,600 --> 00:27:27,680
Speaker 1: think that was the game I remember, right. I guess

544
00:27:27,680 --> 00:27:30,199
Speaker 1: that's a situation where you have to take the data right,

545
00:27:30,240 --> 00:27:32,479
Speaker 1: but then you also have to adjust it to the

546
00:27:32,520 --> 00:27:35,280
Speaker 1: matchups and the schemes that the individual coaches are putting

547
00:27:35,280 --> 00:27:39,080
Speaker 1: on the field on an individual game to game basis. Absolutely,

548
00:27:39,280 --> 00:27:42,680
Speaker 1: that's the Patriots always do best, They find your weak

549
00:27:42,760 --> 00:27:46,359
Speaker 1: point and they annihilated. Right. That's a lot of teams

550
00:27:46,359 --> 00:27:48,960
Speaker 1: are not. I think Super Bowl was a really good

551
00:27:48,960 --> 00:27:52,520
Speaker 1: example of this. The Rams did a great job of

552
00:27:52,560 --> 00:27:54,680
Speaker 1: winning in the regular season. They reminded me a lot

553
00:27:54,720 --> 00:27:57,520
Speaker 1: of the Houston Rockets. Okay, Houston Rockets came out there

554
00:27:57,520 --> 00:27:59,280
Speaker 1: on a night to night basis and they shot you know,

555
00:27:59,400 --> 00:28:01,600
Speaker 1: sixties three. He's a game. They did the same thing

556
00:28:01,680 --> 00:28:04,880
Speaker 1: on offense every time, right, But it was really effective

557
00:28:04,880 --> 00:28:07,600
Speaker 1: because on a night basis, on a week to week basis,

558
00:28:07,640 --> 00:28:10,120
Speaker 1: preparing for the Rams is really hard because you only

559
00:28:10,160 --> 00:28:13,320
Speaker 1: have a few days and they have enough multiplicity in

560
00:28:13,359 --> 00:28:16,160
Speaker 1: their offense that you just aren't quite sure what's coming.

561
00:28:16,920 --> 00:28:18,760
Speaker 1: But the Super Bowl comes around, and you've got Bill

562
00:28:18,800 --> 00:28:21,000
Speaker 1: Belichick and he's got two weeks to sit there and

563
00:28:21,119 --> 00:28:24,120
Speaker 1: learn everything about your offense. And when you come out

564
00:28:24,119 --> 00:28:27,040
Speaker 1: there and try to do the same things at some point,

565
00:28:27,480 --> 00:28:29,719
Speaker 1: right when you have enough time to prepare, you're not

566
00:28:29,840 --> 00:28:32,439
Speaker 1: quite able to have that same success. The Patriots, you

567
00:28:32,480 --> 00:28:34,520
Speaker 1: never quite know, because what they go do is they

568
00:28:35,000 --> 00:28:38,480
Speaker 1: go look at your weakness. They find ways to make

569
00:28:38,520 --> 00:28:41,440
Speaker 1: sure that your weakness is exposed to them, and then

570
00:28:41,440 --> 00:28:43,360
Speaker 1: they attack it and they're able to make those on

571
00:28:43,360 --> 00:28:45,440
Speaker 1: the fly, which we saw in the Super Bowl. Right,

572
00:28:45,480 --> 00:28:47,920
Speaker 1: they come out in twenty two on that in that

573
00:28:47,960 --> 00:28:51,080
Speaker 1: fourth quarter drive that ultimately won the game for them,

574
00:28:51,320 --> 00:28:54,240
Speaker 1: seal the deal and went twenty two and went five wide.

575
00:28:55,240 --> 00:28:57,520
Speaker 1: Was four or five straight plays that have been done

576
00:28:57,560 --> 00:29:01,480
Speaker 1: like three times in the NFL up to the point. Um,

577
00:29:01,720 --> 00:29:03,520
Speaker 1: and they just knew, Look, if we come out in

578
00:29:03,520 --> 00:29:05,640
Speaker 1: this heavy set, the Rams are going to match they

579
00:29:05,680 --> 00:29:09,800
Speaker 1: get if they get poor ms and educam trying to

580
00:29:09,840 --> 00:29:13,600
Speaker 1: cover Gronk on a wheel. They've got linebackers split out

581
00:29:13,680 --> 00:29:16,040
Speaker 1: trying to cover guys you know in the passing game.

582
00:29:16,280 --> 00:29:19,080
Speaker 1: And that ability to find the weakness, whether it's in

583
00:29:19,120 --> 00:29:21,880
Speaker 1: the passing game or in the running game, is what

584
00:29:22,080 --> 00:29:24,440
Speaker 1: allows the Patriots to kind of dominate, you know, week

585
00:29:24,480 --> 00:29:26,440
Speaker 1: in and week out. Um, So, I think you hit

586
00:29:26,480 --> 00:29:29,640
Speaker 1: the nail on the head, right. It's it's also about, uh,

587
00:29:29,680 --> 00:29:31,600
Speaker 1: you know, being able to prepare in a way that

588
00:29:31,720 --> 00:29:34,720
Speaker 1: is opponent specific as opposed to just having you know,

589
00:29:34,760 --> 00:29:37,960
Speaker 1: a global tenant that you always blindly follow. I will

590
00:29:38,000 --> 00:29:40,760
Speaker 1: caveat it with you can't just throw the efficiency out

591
00:29:40,800 --> 00:29:44,239
Speaker 1: the window, right, Large samples do matter and you know,

592
00:29:44,320 --> 00:29:47,080
Speaker 1: passing is still going to be, you know, by and large,

593
00:29:47,720 --> 00:29:51,320
Speaker 1: almost every case more efficient than running. But you find

594
00:29:51,320 --> 00:29:53,880
Speaker 1: the ways to take advantage of when you have to

595
00:29:53,960 --> 00:29:56,480
Speaker 1: run for whatever reason, or when running all of a

596
00:29:56,480 --> 00:29:59,920
Speaker 1: sudden becomes more valuable, and you don't miss those opportunities, right,

597
00:30:00,280 --> 00:30:02,160
Speaker 1: because that's when you you know, you want to make

598
00:30:02,160 --> 00:30:06,000
Speaker 1: sure that you're making the plus expected value proposition on

599
00:30:06,040 --> 00:30:09,400
Speaker 1: every play that you can turnovers. There might not be

600
00:30:09,440 --> 00:30:12,320
Speaker 1: a better predictor of who wins a football game than turnovers.

601
00:30:12,360 --> 00:30:14,840
Speaker 1: The problem is that in my experience and what I've

602
00:30:14,840 --> 00:30:16,440
Speaker 1: looked at, and maybe you can correct me because you

603
00:30:16,480 --> 00:30:18,560
Speaker 1: look at more dada than I do, turnovers are hard

604
00:30:18,600 --> 00:30:20,720
Speaker 1: to predict. They're not very predictive year to year. Teams

605
00:30:20,760 --> 00:30:22,040
Speaker 1: can be in the top of the list one year,

606
00:30:22,040 --> 00:30:23,760
Speaker 1: bottom the list the next year with the same coach

607
00:30:23,760 --> 00:30:27,360
Speaker 1: and same players. So when you take a look at turnovers,

608
00:30:27,880 --> 00:30:31,000
Speaker 1: have you been able to figure out is there a

609
00:30:31,040 --> 00:30:34,160
Speaker 1: way to predict them? Can teams control takeaways or is

610
00:30:34,200 --> 00:30:37,240
Speaker 1: it a lot easier to control your own mistakes on

611
00:30:37,320 --> 00:30:40,320
Speaker 1: offense or turnovers? More dependent on the offense making mistakes

612
00:30:40,360 --> 00:30:43,040
Speaker 1: or the defense making a great play, because it's it's

613
00:30:43,080 --> 00:30:46,880
Speaker 1: so important to winning football games. It changes games on

614
00:30:46,960 --> 00:30:50,360
Speaker 1: a whim. What have you been able to learn about turnovers,

615
00:30:50,760 --> 00:30:53,480
Speaker 1: predicting them and how you either get them or prevent

616
00:30:53,560 --> 00:30:57,080
Speaker 1: them at the NFL level. What we talked about those

617
00:30:57,160 --> 00:31:01,280
Speaker 1: negatively created plays earlier, right, it was being verydictive, and

618
00:31:01,680 --> 00:31:04,800
Speaker 1: there's another sort of level of negative, which is what

619
00:31:04,840 --> 00:31:07,960
Speaker 1: we call turnover worthy. So those are passes that are

620
00:31:08,000 --> 00:31:11,440
Speaker 1: so bad that they're intercepted fifty plus percent of the time.

621
00:31:11,960 --> 00:31:14,959
Speaker 1: But think about that per secent just above fifty plus percent,

622
00:31:15,640 --> 00:31:19,440
Speaker 1: So interceptions even on passes that are just right to defenders,

623
00:31:20,320 --> 00:31:23,200
Speaker 1: it's a crapshoot, right, just you know, flip the coin.

624
00:31:23,800 --> 00:31:29,120
Speaker 1: So from a from a turnover perspective, the result is

625
00:31:29,640 --> 00:31:33,560
Speaker 1: far harder to predict using prior results than prior process.

626
00:31:33,640 --> 00:31:35,120
Speaker 1: So what I mean by that is like, if I'm

627
00:31:35,120 --> 00:31:38,680
Speaker 1: trying to predict interceptions in a season for a quarterback,

628
00:31:38,920 --> 00:31:40,200
Speaker 1: first off, I'm not gonna be able to do it

629
00:31:40,280 --> 00:31:42,440
Speaker 1: very well. But I'm better off using the number of

630
00:31:42,480 --> 00:31:45,480
Speaker 1: throws he made that had a fifty plus percent chance

631
00:31:45,520 --> 00:31:48,360
Speaker 1: of being intercepted those turnoverthly throws. Then I am how

632
00:31:48,360 --> 00:31:52,920
Speaker 1: many interceptions he actually had before either way, I'm going

633
00:31:53,040 --> 00:31:57,280
Speaker 1: to have very little confidence in the number of actual

634
00:31:57,320 --> 00:31:59,719
Speaker 1: interceptions the guy has for that exact reason. It's just

635
00:31:59,760 --> 00:32:03,880
Speaker 1: so much variance. So from a prediction standpoint, that's something

636
00:32:03,880 --> 00:32:07,600
Speaker 1: that goes in that luck bucket. I'm not gonna worry about,

637
00:32:08,240 --> 00:32:11,040
Speaker 1: you know, preaching about turnovers. I'm going to preach the

638
00:32:11,120 --> 00:32:14,920
Speaker 1: process that as a side effect, will you know, hopefully

639
00:32:14,960 --> 00:32:18,120
Speaker 1: avoid turnovers because they're very bad. But there are things

640
00:32:18,120 --> 00:32:21,840
Speaker 1: that I can actually control and and preach, which is, hey,

641
00:32:21,920 --> 00:32:25,200
Speaker 1: let's not let's not have these negative throws, right, Let's

642
00:32:25,240 --> 00:32:28,360
Speaker 1: preach the importance of being accurate in all situations, not

643
00:32:28,440 --> 00:32:31,360
Speaker 1: always looking for the hero throw, you know, taking what's available.

644
00:32:31,360 --> 00:32:33,880
Speaker 1: Things like that, versus saying, hey, we've got to win

645
00:32:33,880 --> 00:32:37,440
Speaker 1: the turnover battle, because largely that's just not something players

646
00:32:37,440 --> 00:32:41,120
Speaker 1: can control. And you know, that can have a negative effect,

647
00:32:41,200 --> 00:32:45,720
Speaker 1: I think psychologically right, because players want to see themselves

648
00:32:45,720 --> 00:32:47,640
Speaker 1: able to control things that they're doing on the field,

649
00:32:47,720 --> 00:32:50,960
Speaker 1: So um, turnovers or one of those things that's important

650
00:32:51,240 --> 00:32:55,400
Speaker 1: but but unpredictable and so it's basically variant. And that's

651
00:32:55,440 --> 00:32:59,960
Speaker 1: why that's a huge reason like defensive success from see

652
00:33:00,040 --> 00:33:02,840
Speaker 1: in the season is not stable, it's not consistent. The

653
00:33:02,920 --> 00:33:05,400
Speaker 1: Bears were the best defense in the NFL last year

654
00:33:05,400 --> 00:33:07,440
Speaker 1: and it wasn't even closed. Well. The reason for that

655
00:33:07,560 --> 00:33:10,800
Speaker 1: is they converted the highest number of their turnover worthy

656
00:33:11,040 --> 00:33:15,240
Speaker 1: opportunities in the turnovers about safety, like seven percent of

657
00:33:15,280 --> 00:33:17,960
Speaker 1: turnover the throws they picked off. I mentioned that that

658
00:33:18,000 --> 00:33:20,600
Speaker 1: at league average is just about fifty. But the season

659
00:33:20,640 --> 00:33:24,160
Speaker 1: before they lead the league and dropped intersect, So you know,

660
00:33:24,560 --> 00:33:26,440
Speaker 1: it's it's one of those things where it's great to

661
00:33:26,440 --> 00:33:28,560
Speaker 1: have when it's happening, but it's not something that you

662
00:33:28,720 --> 00:33:31,240
Speaker 1: necessarily want to bank on from season to season. I

663
00:33:31,240 --> 00:33:34,160
Speaker 1: would focus more on if I'm if I'm a defensive coordinator,

664
00:33:34,160 --> 00:33:36,800
Speaker 1: I'm trying to plan a defense, I'm worried more about

665
00:33:37,120 --> 00:33:41,320
Speaker 1: not getting beaten in coverage than forcing turnovers. And I

666
00:33:41,360 --> 00:33:44,040
Speaker 1: think ultimately that you know, the turnovers will swim back

667
00:33:44,080 --> 00:33:46,560
Speaker 1: and forth, but that consistency that you have in coverage

668
00:33:46,840 --> 00:33:49,840
Speaker 1: um is something that's at least a little bit more controllable.

669
00:33:49,880 --> 00:33:51,719
Speaker 1: From a players standpoint, well, you just may be very

670
00:33:51,720 --> 00:33:53,840
Speaker 1: happy because that basically is anecdotally what I have been

671
00:33:53,880 --> 00:33:56,440
Speaker 1: telling people about takeaways and turnovers is that you can't

672
00:33:56,440 --> 00:33:58,120
Speaker 1: depend on them If they come, they're great, but it's

673
00:33:58,160 --> 00:34:00,840
Speaker 1: something you can't really depend on year to year. Um I.

674
00:34:00,760 --> 00:34:03,400
Speaker 1: I we've kind of touched on this throughout the podcast, George,

675
00:34:03,440 --> 00:34:06,360
Speaker 1: but I'll ask it to you anyway, impact on player

676
00:34:06,440 --> 00:34:09,480
Speaker 1: quality versus coaching UM these I think a lot of

677
00:34:09,520 --> 00:34:11,640
Speaker 1: times the answer fans don't want to hear when they

678
00:34:11,680 --> 00:34:13,560
Speaker 1: call up and ask why their team is bad and

679
00:34:13,640 --> 00:34:15,680
Speaker 1: you say, the players just aren't good enough, And I

680
00:34:15,719 --> 00:34:17,720
Speaker 1: think it's you. You can have any level of coaching

681
00:34:17,719 --> 00:34:19,920
Speaker 1: if you don't have good players, it's just not gonna work.

682
00:34:20,360 --> 00:34:22,520
Speaker 1: How are you able to measure, you know, the importance

683
00:34:22,560 --> 00:34:24,480
Speaker 1: of the quality of the coaching, the scheme, things like that,

684
00:34:24,760 --> 00:34:29,760
Speaker 1: and versus player quality in terms of teams winning football games. Well,

685
00:34:29,880 --> 00:34:34,680
Speaker 1: that is something that I don't think we're necessarily as

686
00:34:34,760 --> 00:34:37,640
Speaker 1: close to answering as some of the other questions, but

687
00:34:37,680 --> 00:34:39,480
Speaker 1: it's something that we're really trying to work on. So

688
00:34:39,560 --> 00:34:42,840
Speaker 1: we do have, UM a way that we measure what

689
00:34:42,920 --> 00:34:47,279
Speaker 1: we call like coaching decisions and coaching UH kind of

690
00:34:47,320 --> 00:34:50,759
Speaker 1: scheme or play calling. And essentially what we're looking at

691
00:34:50,840 --> 00:34:53,680
Speaker 1: is if I were to just try and predict how

692
00:34:53,719 --> 00:34:56,960
Speaker 1: efficient a play with this set of players, that are

693
00:34:57,000 --> 00:34:59,319
Speaker 1: on the field and that this team has would be

694
00:34:59,440 --> 00:35:03,680
Speaker 1: against whatever the defense is. Well, the value that's sort

695
00:35:03,680 --> 00:35:07,440
Speaker 1: of added to that, right is something that we like

696
00:35:07,560 --> 00:35:09,880
Speaker 1: to attribute to the coach. Right, So if it's like,

697
00:35:09,920 --> 00:35:13,200
Speaker 1: you know, I have this kind of average quarterback, average receivers,

698
00:35:13,239 --> 00:35:16,279
Speaker 1: but this team is a top ten offense, well, we're

699
00:35:16,320 --> 00:35:18,960
Speaker 1: going to give that that credit to the coach. So

700
00:35:19,040 --> 00:35:22,399
Speaker 1: that's the way that we model it. Currently. We're doing

701
00:35:22,400 --> 00:35:25,360
Speaker 1: a lot more with passing schemes at the moment, actually,

702
00:35:25,800 --> 00:35:29,800
Speaker 1: um with with quantifying exactly what concepts teams are running,

703
00:35:30,040 --> 00:35:33,279
Speaker 1: which ones are the most successful, which areas of the

704
00:35:33,320 --> 00:35:36,760
Speaker 1: field are passing concepts targeting? Which one should they be targeting.

705
00:35:36,840 --> 00:35:39,640
Speaker 1: So hopefully we'll have some kind of deeper insights into

706
00:35:39,680 --> 00:35:44,279
Speaker 1: that soon. But I think it's you know, the situation

707
00:35:44,320 --> 00:35:47,960
Speaker 1: that a player ends up in is very important, right

708
00:35:48,040 --> 00:35:51,680
Speaker 1: from a quarterback perspective particularly, We see this all the time,

709
00:35:52,080 --> 00:35:54,680
Speaker 1: and there's certainly a lot that a coach can do

710
00:35:55,320 --> 00:35:59,040
Speaker 1: um to maximize those things that are efficient for quarterbacks.

711
00:35:59,600 --> 00:36:01,840
Speaker 1: But they're the limit to that obviously, Right, If you

712
00:36:01,920 --> 00:36:04,680
Speaker 1: just don't have players that can block or catch or throw,

713
00:36:05,840 --> 00:36:07,440
Speaker 1: coach can't do that. You know, but you look at

714
00:36:07,440 --> 00:36:10,080
Speaker 1: a guy like Sean McVeigh. The guy is as close

715
00:36:10,120 --> 00:36:11,799
Speaker 1: to being a player on the field as you can get,

716
00:36:11,960 --> 00:36:14,400
Speaker 1: right up until that mike cuts off. He's reading the defense.

717
00:36:14,400 --> 00:36:17,440
Speaker 1: He's telling Jared goffin he's running the most play action

718
00:36:17,920 --> 00:36:20,880
Speaker 1: uh in the NFL. He's got you know, guys running

719
00:36:20,880 --> 00:36:22,799
Speaker 1: scott free over the middle of the field as as

720
00:36:22,880 --> 00:36:25,959
Speaker 1: much as anyone else. And Jared goff went from being

721
00:36:26,400 --> 00:36:30,560
Speaker 1: a complete bust with you know, Jeff Fisher dropping twenty

722
00:36:30,640 --> 00:36:33,400
Speaker 1: five yards back on straight drops and you know, hoping

723
00:36:33,400 --> 00:36:36,960
Speaker 1: and praying to now an MVP candidate through you know what,

724
00:36:37,120 --> 00:36:39,479
Speaker 1: like fifteen weeks of the season. Last year, you mentioned

725
00:36:39,520 --> 00:36:41,520
Speaker 1: the middle of the field. Your data has shown that

726
00:36:41,560 --> 00:36:43,359
Speaker 1: throwing to the middle of the field is generally more

727
00:36:43,400 --> 00:36:46,719
Speaker 1: efficient than the sideline. And I guess my question for you,

728
00:36:47,200 --> 00:36:51,880
Speaker 1: does that really impress upon teams the importance of having

729
00:36:51,880 --> 00:36:55,200
Speaker 1: safeties and linebackers and slot corners that can defend that

730
00:36:55,280 --> 00:36:58,120
Speaker 1: middle of the field. Well, I think I think you

731
00:36:58,120 --> 00:37:02,000
Speaker 1: have to nail on the ad there. The big inefficiency

732
00:37:02,239 --> 00:37:05,719
Speaker 1: from a sort of like offensive scheme perspective, I think

733
00:37:05,800 --> 00:37:08,160
Speaker 1: is finding those guys that can't cover getting them on

734
00:37:08,160 --> 00:37:10,120
Speaker 1: the field and having an offensive guy, you know, a

735
00:37:10,160 --> 00:37:13,280
Speaker 1: tight end, running back that can run route down the field.

736
00:37:13,560 --> 00:37:16,520
Speaker 1: Linebackers and safeties and cut in primary coverage are just

737
00:37:16,560 --> 00:37:19,600
Speaker 1: not as good as corners. That's the back, particularly linebackers.

738
00:37:19,640 --> 00:37:23,040
Speaker 1: So when you're looking at what makes a good linebacker,

739
00:37:23,120 --> 00:37:24,839
Speaker 1: what makes a good safety, I look at two guys.

740
00:37:24,840 --> 00:37:27,120
Speaker 1: I look at maybe three. I gotta put Bobby Wagger

741
00:37:27,120 --> 00:37:28,880
Speaker 1: in there, but I also look at Dion Jones, I

742
00:37:28,880 --> 00:37:31,319
Speaker 1: look at Derwin James. Those are guys that can match

743
00:37:31,440 --> 00:37:33,879
Speaker 1: up against tight ends. I think Irwin James a lot

744
00:37:33,880 --> 00:37:36,680
Speaker 1: of pass rating sub forty when matched up against tight end.

745
00:37:36,719 --> 00:37:40,080
Speaker 1: There's a joke. And that is what I'm looking for

746
00:37:40,160 --> 00:37:43,480
Speaker 1: if I'm trying to find safeties and linebackers, can they

747
00:37:43,560 --> 00:37:46,600
Speaker 1: cover Because you know, as I spoke about before, and

748
00:37:46,719 --> 00:37:49,200
Speaker 1: as the data is, you know, all the research that

749
00:37:49,239 --> 00:37:52,360
Speaker 1: has been done kind of across the analytics world is

750
00:37:52,400 --> 00:37:54,919
Speaker 1: shown the run game is just not something and run

751
00:37:54,960 --> 00:37:57,200
Speaker 1: defense for that matter, is just not something that helps

752
00:37:57,200 --> 00:37:59,399
Speaker 1: you win football games. So it's all about being able

753
00:37:59,440 --> 00:38:02,239
Speaker 1: to cover um and and you're right, I mean that

754
00:38:02,400 --> 00:38:06,000
Speaker 1: middle of the field ten plus yards downfield from the

755
00:38:06,120 --> 00:38:09,440
Speaker 1: yards per perhtograph perspective, it's not even close. That is

756
00:38:09,480 --> 00:38:11,400
Speaker 1: the area of the field to generates the most yards

757
00:38:11,400 --> 00:38:14,839
Speaker 1: per throw. It does have more, you know, there are

758
00:38:14,880 --> 00:38:17,440
Speaker 1: more unlucky interceptions. So I think that's some of the

759
00:38:17,480 --> 00:38:20,759
Speaker 1: reason that maybe less confident quarterbacks don't throw in the

760
00:38:21,120 --> 00:38:23,959
Speaker 1: area as much, so defenses get a little lucky there. Um.

761
00:38:24,040 --> 00:38:26,440
Speaker 1: But the good quarterbacks to Tom Brady's and Drew brees

762
00:38:26,560 --> 00:38:30,520
Speaker 1: is um baron Rodgers prior to last season have always

763
00:38:30,560 --> 00:38:32,640
Speaker 1: torched that that area of the field and that's why

764
00:38:32,680 --> 00:38:34,640
Speaker 1: they end up winning m vps and Super Bowls. The

765
00:38:34,680 --> 00:38:37,200
Speaker 1: reason that running does not help a team win games

766
00:38:37,200 --> 00:38:40,000
Speaker 1: as much as the passing game did. That just boil down, George. Basically,

767
00:38:40,280 --> 00:38:42,440
Speaker 1: two yards per play. I think that's a great way

768
00:38:42,480 --> 00:38:44,920
Speaker 1: of putting it, uh, the way that I would if

769
00:38:44,920 --> 00:38:47,240
Speaker 1: I were to get a little bit deeper, I would

770
00:38:47,239 --> 00:38:50,839
Speaker 1: say you could contextualize yards per play, right, because like

771
00:38:51,239 --> 00:38:54,680
Speaker 1: five yards on on third and ten isn't really worth

772
00:38:54,719 --> 00:38:56,960
Speaker 1: a whole lot, but five yards on like third and

773
00:38:57,000 --> 00:38:59,640
Speaker 1: four obviously matters. Of course. So when we add that

774
00:39:00,120 --> 00:39:02,640
Speaker 1: text to it and we look at how much closer

775
00:39:02,680 --> 00:39:05,160
Speaker 1: to scoring does a pass play or a run play

776
00:39:05,239 --> 00:39:07,440
Speaker 1: get you in all of these different situations, you know,

777
00:39:07,480 --> 00:39:11,279
Speaker 1: first and ten, second, long, second, medium, second, short, third, long,

778
00:39:11,360 --> 00:39:16,320
Speaker 1: all these different premutations. The past game is far more efficient,

779
00:39:16,480 --> 00:39:18,840
Speaker 1: and it's in general not even close. So the average

780
00:39:18,880 --> 00:39:21,560
Speaker 1: run play is actually getting you further away from scoring,

781
00:39:22,360 --> 00:39:24,960
Speaker 1: which is kind of hard to imagine. But um that

782
00:39:25,080 --> 00:39:27,120
Speaker 1: you asked. I think a great question the last time

783
00:39:27,120 --> 00:39:28,960
Speaker 1: we spoke, which is, you know what it's like a

784
00:39:28,960 --> 00:39:31,480
Speaker 1: four yard run on first and ten do for you? Yeah?

785
00:39:31,480 --> 00:39:34,360
Speaker 1: I remember that people. I thought that was one of

786
00:39:34,400 --> 00:39:36,440
Speaker 1: the best questions that I've ever heard, and I've used

787
00:39:36,480 --> 00:39:40,120
Speaker 1: that multiple times since then. I think a lot of

788
00:39:40,160 --> 00:39:44,760
Speaker 1: people say, keep still on schedule. It doesn't and uh,

789
00:39:44,960 --> 00:39:47,120
Speaker 1: that is I think a hurdle for people to get over.

790
00:39:47,160 --> 00:39:49,560
Speaker 1: But it boils down to the passing game, on average

791
00:39:49,760 --> 00:39:54,160
Speaker 1: gets you closer to scoring in almost every situation, whereas

792
00:39:54,200 --> 00:39:56,479
Speaker 1: the run game does not. And I think you boil

793
00:39:56,560 --> 00:39:58,520
Speaker 1: it down, Georgia. In order for the run game to

794
00:39:58,520 --> 00:40:01,080
Speaker 1: be more efficient, to make it well worth it, on

795
00:40:01,080 --> 00:40:02,640
Speaker 1: a first down play, you have to get five or

796
00:40:02,680 --> 00:40:06,800
Speaker 1: six yards? Is that pretty much what the data shows you? Yeah,

797
00:40:06,840 --> 00:40:13,080
Speaker 1: I mean in most situations, you know, so it's the

798
00:40:13,200 --> 00:40:16,279
Speaker 1: NFL is is you know football is like a very

799
00:40:16,360 --> 00:40:19,640
Speaker 1: simple game, you know, fundamentally, but there are so many

800
00:40:20,160 --> 00:40:22,920
Speaker 1: kind of nooks and crannies that I think are just

801
00:40:23,040 --> 00:40:26,600
Speaker 1: not intuitive to people that hopefully we'll make the game

802
00:40:26,640 --> 00:40:28,640
Speaker 1: more exciting, right, because what we're talking about are things

803
00:40:28,719 --> 00:40:32,200
Speaker 1: that ultimately often to score more points that everyone likes

804
00:40:32,200 --> 00:40:34,880
Speaker 1: to see. Does that include I think I think everyone

805
00:40:34,880 --> 00:40:36,640
Speaker 1: likes to see. It might be some people out there

806
00:40:36,920 --> 00:40:40,439
Speaker 1: that still really love what we saw on the super Bowl,

807
00:40:40,560 --> 00:40:42,800
Speaker 1: but a super Bowl was a fun game, but I

808
00:40:42,880 --> 00:40:44,640
Speaker 1: would have preferred a few more points, I think. Do

809
00:40:44,719 --> 00:40:47,200
Speaker 1: those calculations include, by the way, the danger is inherent

810
00:40:47,239 --> 00:40:49,040
Speaker 1: in the passing game, whether it's losing big yards in

811
00:40:49,080 --> 00:40:51,439
Speaker 1: a sack, potentially throwing an interception where I think they're

812
00:40:51,440 --> 00:40:53,960
Speaker 1: probably is a little bit more risk involved in passing

813
00:40:53,960 --> 00:40:56,800
Speaker 1: the ball than it isn't running the ball right, Well,

814
00:40:57,000 --> 00:41:00,839
Speaker 1: so again I think that's the intuitive thought, and yes

815
00:41:00,840 --> 00:41:03,040
Speaker 1: those are included, right, So, like an interception is a

816
00:41:03,120 --> 00:41:05,440
Speaker 1: terrible play, but you know what else is a terrible play?

817
00:41:05,840 --> 00:41:08,880
Speaker 1: Holding on outside zone that's a good play. That's a

818
00:41:09,000 --> 00:41:12,480
Speaker 1: terrible play. Because you know, we talk people like to

819
00:41:12,520 --> 00:41:15,080
Speaker 1: talk about sacks, talk about sacks way way too much.

820
00:41:15,120 --> 00:41:18,560
Speaker 1: I mean, they're valuable, but they're very hard to to predict.

821
00:41:18,840 --> 00:41:21,560
Speaker 1: But there are negative plays inherent with the run game

822
00:41:21,719 --> 00:41:24,960
Speaker 1: that also get glossed over, and holding is certainly one

823
00:41:24,960 --> 00:41:27,080
Speaker 1: of them. It's one of the reasons that the outside

824
00:41:27,160 --> 00:41:30,399
Speaker 1: zone runs are. You know, I would I wouldn't run

825
00:41:30,440 --> 00:41:34,360
Speaker 1: them so much because holding is a terrible play, particularly

826
00:41:34,719 --> 00:41:38,000
Speaker 1: when you run on a down with you know where

827
00:41:38,040 --> 00:41:40,280
Speaker 1: it's less advantageous to run the ball because you're really

828
00:41:40,400 --> 00:41:44,399
Speaker 1: those are those longer down to distances UM, and so

829
00:41:44,480 --> 00:41:45,840
Speaker 1: you know, you think about it from a second and

830
00:41:45,880 --> 00:41:50,440
Speaker 1: long perspective, that's that's torpedoing that drive. It's almost you know,

831
00:41:50,440 --> 00:41:52,279
Speaker 1: it's so hard for you to come back from that

832
00:41:52,640 --> 00:41:54,239
Speaker 1: UM and you're obviously only going to come back from

833
00:41:54,239 --> 00:41:56,600
Speaker 1: it with a strong pass. Again, now that John's are

834
00:41:56,600 --> 00:41:58,840
Speaker 1: playing a lot of young guys this year, George, I

835
00:41:58,880 --> 00:42:02,800
Speaker 1: know you guys have tracked what grades from college project

836
00:42:02,920 --> 00:42:04,759
Speaker 1: well to the NFL Joinally, the closer you get to

837
00:42:04,760 --> 00:42:06,400
Speaker 1: the ball, the better those grades are going to project.

838
00:42:06,600 --> 00:42:09,600
Speaker 1: Have you guys looked at all about what positions coming

839
00:42:09,600 --> 00:42:13,520
Speaker 1: out of college struggle more early in the National Football League?

840
00:42:13,760 --> 00:42:16,399
Speaker 1: And I'm asking you specifically about the cornerback position because

841
00:42:16,400 --> 00:42:17,759
Speaker 1: the Giants is going to roll out a bunch of

842
00:42:17,760 --> 00:42:20,359
Speaker 1: young quarterbacks that haven't really played a whole lot. And

843
00:42:20,400 --> 00:42:21,959
Speaker 1: whether or not you guys have any sort of data

844
00:42:22,000 --> 00:42:26,040
Speaker 1: on what collegiate players struggle more so than others early

845
00:42:26,040 --> 00:42:30,600
Speaker 1: on in their NFL careers. Yeah, My UM coworker uh

846
00:42:30,840 --> 00:42:34,080
Speaker 1: CO collaborator Eric Eager, has done a lot of work

847
00:42:34,880 --> 00:42:37,160
Speaker 1: on this college to pro projection and something that we

848
00:42:37,200 --> 00:42:39,759
Speaker 1: are actively trying to get better at because it's a

849
00:42:39,800 --> 00:42:43,360
Speaker 1: million dollar questions. That is, that is where money is

850
00:42:43,400 --> 00:42:46,640
Speaker 1: made in the NFL. You you become a great team,

851
00:42:46,680 --> 00:42:49,319
Speaker 1: a Super Bowl contender by drafting a lot and and

852
00:42:49,600 --> 00:42:52,680
Speaker 1: you know, not making errors uh in drafting. And so

853
00:42:52,719 --> 00:42:53,920
Speaker 1: there are a couple of things that I think you

854
00:42:53,920 --> 00:42:57,160
Speaker 1: can take advantage of. UM. We spoke about how coverage

855
00:42:57,520 --> 00:43:01,880
Speaker 1: is more valuable than pass rush, but it's also harder

856
00:43:01,960 --> 00:43:06,759
Speaker 1: to predict. So as you mentioned that, we feel very well,

857
00:43:07,239 --> 00:43:09,279
Speaker 1: very is maybe a little strong, but we feel far

858
00:43:09,400 --> 00:43:13,600
Speaker 1: more confident about pass rushers projecting from college to pro

859
00:43:14,120 --> 00:43:16,799
Speaker 1: than we do about coverage players. Now, I think we'll

860
00:43:16,840 --> 00:43:19,279
Speaker 1: get better at that because we're building in nuance that

861
00:43:19,320 --> 00:43:22,520
Speaker 1: I think is inherent in the coverage game. But the

862
00:43:23,000 --> 00:43:25,440
Speaker 1: sort of inefficiency there that you can take advantage of

863
00:43:25,600 --> 00:43:28,719
Speaker 1: is well, if I'm better at projecting pass rushers, but

864
00:43:28,800 --> 00:43:31,600
Speaker 1: I know coverage is really important. I've got to I've

865
00:43:31,640 --> 00:43:34,080
Speaker 1: got to take chances in coverage right early and often,

866
00:43:34,400 --> 00:43:37,000
Speaker 1: and then I can find guys um this submit that

867
00:43:37,120 --> 00:43:39,480
Speaker 1: Eric also talks a lot about. I can find guys

868
00:43:39,560 --> 00:43:43,000
Speaker 1: later in the draft that can be productive pass rushers. Right,

869
00:43:43,000 --> 00:43:46,360
Speaker 1: I can also find guys um that the Patriots always

870
00:43:46,360 --> 00:43:48,440
Speaker 1: do this bargain basement that's probably gonna do it again

871
00:43:48,520 --> 00:43:52,040
Speaker 1: this year, bargain basement pass rushers that can be stable

872
00:43:52,080 --> 00:43:54,880
Speaker 1: pass rushers. But where you have to take shots because

873
00:43:54,880 --> 00:43:58,200
Speaker 1: it's so important is in coverage. Is a defensive back.

874
00:43:58,320 --> 00:44:02,319
Speaker 1: So look, the it's may you know, they may miss

875
00:44:02,360 --> 00:44:04,160
Speaker 1: on a few of these guys, but they've got to

876
00:44:04,200 --> 00:44:06,960
Speaker 1: take chances uh in coverage because if you don't have

877
00:44:06,960 --> 00:44:09,200
Speaker 1: a strong coverage, it does not matter how good your

878
00:44:09,239 --> 00:44:11,560
Speaker 1: pass thrush is. Right, the Eagles have had a great

879
00:44:11,640 --> 00:44:14,160
Speaker 1: defensive line for a while, they win the Super Bowl.

880
00:44:14,360 --> 00:44:17,560
Speaker 1: After that coverage becomes solidified, you know, going from bottom

881
00:44:17,600 --> 00:44:19,800
Speaker 1: half of the league into a top house of the

882
00:44:19,840 --> 00:44:23,279
Speaker 1: league team, Um, it's just so vital. So instead of

883
00:44:23,360 --> 00:44:24,879
Speaker 1: just throwing your hands up and saying, well, I can't

884
00:44:24,920 --> 00:44:27,160
Speaker 1: predict it, so I'm not going to try, you actually

885
00:44:27,160 --> 00:44:29,759
Speaker 1: want to look at where it's harder to predict but

886
00:44:29,840 --> 00:44:32,520
Speaker 1: still valuable and then take those shots. Now, we've all

887
00:44:32,560 --> 00:44:35,680
Speaker 1: heard about war and vorp in baseball, it's been very popular.

888
00:44:35,680 --> 00:44:37,319
Speaker 1: People have used it a long time. You guys are

889
00:44:37,320 --> 00:44:39,319
Speaker 1: trying to develop in a football Where are you guys

890
00:44:39,360 --> 00:44:41,239
Speaker 1: at with that? How have you gone about trying to

891
00:44:41,280 --> 00:44:44,960
Speaker 1: put those numbers together and explain to fans what it is? Yes,

892
00:44:45,040 --> 00:44:48,359
Speaker 1: the winds above replacement is something that's used obviously a

893
00:44:48,360 --> 00:44:51,399
Speaker 1: lot in UM in baseball, and baseball is a lot

894
00:44:51,440 --> 00:44:55,360
Speaker 1: easier to handle because look, you're either a bat or

895
00:44:55,360 --> 00:44:57,719
Speaker 1: a pitcher, and all batters and pitchers do the same thing.

896
00:44:57,840 --> 00:45:01,800
Speaker 1: But in football it's just everyone is doing something different.

897
00:45:01,800 --> 00:45:04,480
Speaker 1: There's so many phases of the game, and it's so

898
00:45:04,560 --> 00:45:08,960
Speaker 1: hard to say how valuable with box score statistics, UM,

899
00:45:09,000 --> 00:45:11,600
Speaker 1: you know those well, let me actually replace that phrase

900
00:45:11,680 --> 00:45:14,399
Speaker 1: that it's currently up. Until you know PFF came around,

901
00:45:14,480 --> 00:45:17,400
Speaker 1: had been impossible to say, really how well a player

902
00:45:17,400 --> 00:45:19,640
Speaker 1: did his job in all of those facets? Right the

903
00:45:19,640 --> 00:45:23,520
Speaker 1: O line the D line, team coverage. And so once

904
00:45:23,640 --> 00:45:27,160
Speaker 1: we have that ability to better quantify and that we're

905
00:45:27,200 --> 00:45:28,880
Speaker 1: not perfect, but we do a pretty good fight, you

906
00:45:28,880 --> 00:45:31,080
Speaker 1: can look at the stability of our grades and how

907
00:45:31,080 --> 00:45:33,520
Speaker 1: well they predict wins, and that's a litmus test of

908
00:45:33,560 --> 00:45:36,160
Speaker 1: whether we're doing a good job grading or not. UM

909
00:45:36,200 --> 00:45:38,279
Speaker 1: you can then say, okay, I know how well a

910
00:45:38,360 --> 00:45:41,600
Speaker 1: player performed his job, and then we can use math

911
00:45:41,680 --> 00:45:44,879
Speaker 1: and machine learning to say how valuable is doing that

912
00:45:45,080 --> 00:45:48,279
Speaker 1: well in that facet And that allows us to put

913
00:45:48,400 --> 00:45:51,840
Speaker 1: both of those pieces together and say, okay, over replacement

914
00:45:51,920 --> 00:45:55,640
Speaker 1: level player, how valuable was this player? And so it's

915
00:45:55,640 --> 00:45:58,279
Speaker 1: a it's a huge step because it does is it's

916
00:45:58,320 --> 00:46:01,040
Speaker 1: cross positional. Before of this, you would look at Aaron

917
00:46:01,040 --> 00:46:03,960
Speaker 1: Donald and Pat Mahome. They both played at a tremendous level.

918
00:46:04,000 --> 00:46:06,719
Speaker 1: They're fantastic, and you might be able to have a

919
00:46:06,719 --> 00:46:11,440
Speaker 1: debate maybe about which one is more valuable. But now

920
00:46:11,480 --> 00:46:14,560
Speaker 1: with this we can say for sure, like definitively, this

921
00:46:14,640 --> 00:46:17,840
Speaker 1: is how much more valuable Pat Mahomes is than Aaron Donald.

922
00:46:18,040 --> 00:46:21,080
Speaker 1: This is how much more valuable a tackle is than

923
00:46:21,120 --> 00:46:24,000
Speaker 1: a guard, This is how much more valuable um. You know,

924
00:46:24,040 --> 00:46:26,520
Speaker 1: the passing gain is than the running game, those types

925
00:46:26,560 --> 00:46:30,000
Speaker 1: of things, so it's very exciting. UM. I'm looking forward

926
00:46:30,040 --> 00:46:32,439
Speaker 1: to publishing a lot of the work that we've done

927
00:46:32,440 --> 00:46:36,239
Speaker 1: on that UM in a more formal format soon. UM.

928
00:46:36,520 --> 00:46:38,839
Speaker 1: But it is the most stable, and what I mean

929
00:46:38,880 --> 00:46:41,800
Speaker 1: by stable is consistent in terms of from season to

930
00:46:41,840 --> 00:46:44,399
Speaker 1: season players. With high war, we're gonna have high war

931
00:46:44,440 --> 00:46:47,239
Speaker 1: the next season the end. With low war, they're gonna

932
00:46:47,239 --> 00:46:50,680
Speaker 1: be bad. The next Season's most stable metric that we

933
00:46:50,760 --> 00:46:53,600
Speaker 1: have yet tested UM in our time here as a

934
00:46:53,760 --> 00:46:56,640
Speaker 1: as a research and development apartment at PFF. All right, George,

935
00:46:56,719 --> 00:46:58,799
Speaker 1: final question. I'm going to open the floor to you.

936
00:46:59,160 --> 00:47:02,239
Speaker 1: Give me something either that you're working on that that

937
00:47:02,320 --> 00:47:04,640
Speaker 1: you think is interesting that people don't know about, or

938
00:47:05,080 --> 00:47:07,240
Speaker 1: something that we haven't touched on that you hear people

939
00:47:07,280 --> 00:47:09,800
Speaker 1: say often on television or radio and talking about the

940
00:47:09,920 --> 00:47:12,080
Speaker 1: NFL that makes you want to slam your head into

941
00:47:12,080 --> 00:47:17,600
Speaker 1: the wall. Wow, Well we we certainly hit the rushing

942
00:47:17,640 --> 00:47:21,399
Speaker 1: attempts for all that matter bit over the head. UM,

943
00:47:21,480 --> 00:47:24,360
Speaker 1: So I will not say that one. UM. There's a

944
00:47:24,360 --> 00:47:27,239
Speaker 1: lot of great work that's being done here. We just

945
00:47:27,760 --> 00:47:30,960
Speaker 1: you know, hired a couple of new people onto our team. UM.

946
00:47:31,160 --> 00:47:33,600
Speaker 1: Kevin Cole and a guy named over in Germany and

947
00:47:33,640 --> 00:47:37,400
Speaker 1: Demo Risque, and they are working on some really innovative

948
00:47:37,400 --> 00:47:41,560
Speaker 1: stuff UM with I mentioned the passing concept stuff, so

949
00:47:41,719 --> 00:47:44,480
Speaker 1: actually leveraging all the routes that are run on the

950
00:47:44,520 --> 00:47:48,760
Speaker 1: field to get a sense of where the passing concept

951
00:47:48,840 --> 00:47:51,799
Speaker 1: is most likely to target UM and so we can

952
00:47:51,840 --> 00:47:54,640
Speaker 1: then look at like where that team expects, you know,

953
00:47:54,680 --> 00:47:56,560
Speaker 1: to throw the throw the ball, and there's a lot

954
00:47:56,560 --> 00:48:01,160
Speaker 1: of ramifications there UM. And then also linking war and

955
00:48:01,400 --> 00:48:05,800
Speaker 1: contract UM information to give a better decision making tool

956
00:48:05,960 --> 00:48:08,960
Speaker 1: for how much should I pay a player, um, you know,

957
00:48:09,000 --> 00:48:11,000
Speaker 1: whether it be in free agency or you know, extending

958
00:48:11,000 --> 00:48:13,120
Speaker 1: a player or whatnot. So those are a couple of things,

959
00:48:13,480 --> 00:48:16,359
Speaker 1: UM that that we're working on. And then the other

960
00:48:16,760 --> 00:48:20,160
Speaker 1: huge thing that we touched briefly was was college to

961
00:48:20,280 --> 00:48:23,920
Speaker 1: pro right cracking that UM cracking that open. It's just

962
00:48:23,920 --> 00:48:26,520
Speaker 1: going to be massive and so it's something that UM

963
00:48:26,680 --> 00:48:29,040
Speaker 1: we're working on a lot that that Eric as I mentioned,

964
00:48:29,080 --> 00:48:30,840
Speaker 1: has put a lot of work into and he's a

965
00:48:30,880 --> 00:48:33,360
Speaker 1: brilliant guy. So I'm very excited about the success is

966
00:48:33,400 --> 00:48:35,439
Speaker 1: going to have George tell people where they can find

967
00:48:35,440 --> 00:48:37,800
Speaker 1: all the pro football focus stuff, how they subscribe or

968
00:48:37,840 --> 00:48:39,520
Speaker 1: what kind of packages you got, and just in terms

969
00:48:39,560 --> 00:48:42,840
Speaker 1: of how people find all your great work. Thank you. Yeah. So,

970
00:48:42,960 --> 00:48:46,440
Speaker 1: if you go to PFF now not PFF dot com

971
00:48:46,600 --> 00:48:49,480
Speaker 1: is where you can subscribe to all the great stuff. Um.

972
00:48:49,680 --> 00:48:54,920
Speaker 1: The analytics podcast is the PFF Forecast. I am, as usual,

973
00:48:55,000 --> 00:48:58,280
Speaker 1: very annoying and sarcastic, but Eric by co host often

974
00:48:58,360 --> 00:49:01,000
Speaker 1: drops quite a bit of acknowledge that you can get

975
00:49:01,040 --> 00:49:04,239
Speaker 1: past me. You'll probably enjoy it quite a bit. Um.

976
00:49:04,520 --> 00:49:06,520
Speaker 1: Yeah so, and you can trying to fund on Twitter

977
00:49:06,560 --> 00:49:10,799
Speaker 1: obviously at PFF. I'm at PFS underscored George and then

978
00:49:11,280 --> 00:49:14,520
Speaker 1: PFS underscore Eric. Uh, and then you know you'll find

979
00:49:14,560 --> 00:49:17,680
Speaker 1: everyone else from there. I think. By the way our analysts,

980
00:49:17,719 --> 00:49:19,640
Speaker 1: guy John Burger sends us regards, he wanted me to

981
00:49:19,640 --> 00:49:22,360
Speaker 1: say hi, and uh, we really appreciate the time, George.

982
00:49:22,400 --> 00:49:24,200
Speaker 1: Great stuff. I know we went a little bit longer

983
00:49:24,239 --> 00:49:26,200
Speaker 1: than we thought, but I thought it was a great conversation.

984
00:49:26,239 --> 00:49:27,840
Speaker 1: I hope you had fun. I know I did. And

985
00:49:27,840 --> 00:49:29,200
Speaker 1: we'll talk to you down the road, all right, pal,

986
00:49:30,000 --> 00:49:32,320
Speaker 1: I always have fun. Man. Give John my best. John

987
00:49:32,560 --> 00:49:35,600
Speaker 1: like you good people. I appreciate it. George, good stuff.

988
00:49:35,640 --> 00:49:38,120
Speaker 1: Man have fun that the grinds about to well, I

989
00:49:38,120 --> 00:49:41,080
Speaker 1: guess ratchet it up, not begin we are going full

990
00:49:41,120 --> 00:49:44,560
Speaker 1: grind Moyd over here. Thanks brother. That's George SHARRUI does

991
00:49:44,600 --> 00:49:47,920
Speaker 1: an excellent job for Pro Football Focus. All the analytics,

992
00:49:47,960 --> 00:49:49,759
Speaker 1: a lot of the data, and again, folks, this is

993
00:49:49,800 --> 00:49:51,920
Speaker 1: stuff that a lot of people store learning things about.

994
00:49:52,080 --> 00:49:55,320
Speaker 1: And you know, there are larger themes like we talked about,

995
00:49:55,320 --> 00:49:57,480
Speaker 1: but there are specific things game to game with matchups

996
00:49:57,480 --> 00:50:01,920
Speaker 1: and teams that do change as you move along with

997
00:50:02,000 --> 00:50:05,200
Speaker 1: these analytics and and teams try to take the data.

998
00:50:05,280 --> 00:50:08,160
Speaker 1: And the trick is taking this data information and then

999
00:50:08,200 --> 00:50:11,360
Speaker 1: turning it into something that's actionable for NFL teams. And

1000
00:50:11,400 --> 00:50:13,520
Speaker 1: I think that's a good thing that Pro Football Focus

1001
00:50:13,560 --> 00:50:15,560
Speaker 1: is trying to do. And it's difficult because you know,

1002
00:50:15,760 --> 00:50:18,080
Speaker 1: it's on an individual game like baseball. It's a team

1003
00:50:18,080 --> 00:50:20,319
Speaker 1: game where every player on the field affects everyone else,

1004
00:50:20,600 --> 00:50:22,919
Speaker 1: and this is a very difficult thing to handle. Well, folks,

1005
00:50:23,000 --> 00:50:24,799
Speaker 1: I know it's a longer podcast and usual by thought,

1006
00:50:24,800 --> 00:50:26,960
Speaker 1: it was great at those information. I hope you enjoyed it.

1007
00:50:27,160 --> 00:50:28,560
Speaker 1: I know I did. I get into all the stuff.

1008
00:50:28,600 --> 00:50:31,040
Speaker 1: I hope you'll learn something. Um from George over a

1009
00:50:31,080 --> 00:50:34,440
Speaker 1: pro football focus. I want to remind you very quickly,

1010
00:50:34,480 --> 00:50:36,359
Speaker 1: if you're on Johns dot com the John's Bowl Black,

1011
00:50:36,400 --> 00:50:38,160
Speaker 1: that's great listening to this, But go to your favorite

1012
00:50:38,200 --> 00:50:41,440
Speaker 1: podcast platform, subscribe and make us part of your favorites.

1013
00:50:41,480 --> 00:50:42,960
Speaker 1: Make us part of your feet. If you're on Apple

1014
00:50:43,239 --> 00:50:47,520
Speaker 1: podcast or iTunes, make sure you leave a positive review

1015
00:50:47,840 --> 00:50:50,360
Speaker 1: for George Shahari. I am John Schmilk. We'll see you

1016
00:50:50,440 --> 00:50:52,960
Speaker 1: next time on The john Suttle Podcast. Audioce