WEBVTT - Week 4 NFL Bets: Nick’s 5 Picks 0:00:00.440 --> 0:00:02.800 If your football team had one option in their playbook, 0:00:03.000 --> 0:00:05.800 the results probably wouldn't be great. The same could be 0:00:05.840 --> 0:00:09.440 said for your investments. Cibo index options like SPX and 0:00:09.600 --> 0:00:12.920 XSP can help expand your investing strategies with cash settlement 0:00:13.080 --> 0:00:15.840 and potential tax advantages. If you're ready for a more 0:00:15.920 --> 0:00:19.160 dynamic game plan, head to Better with Options dot com. 0:00:19.280 --> 0:00:22.880 Cebo life is better with options, Your investments. 0:00:22.440 --> 0:00:23.119 Could be too. 0:00:23.520 --> 0:00:26.159 There are risks associated with Cibo company products. Review the 0:00:26.160 --> 0:00:40.920 disclosures and disclaimers at cbo dot com. Slash us underscore disclaimers. 0:00:42.159 --> 0:00:44.440 All Right, Welcome in episode seventy six What's Right with 0:00:44.520 --> 0:00:48.800 Nick Right podcast and YouTube show, our week four NFL 0:00:48.920 --> 0:00:51.839 gambling show and listening to yours. How this works. We'll 0:00:51.840 --> 0:00:54.280 give you five picks a week, we give you one lock. 0:00:54.400 --> 0:00:57.120 We might give you some exotics. Demanse makes me an offer. 0:00:57.280 --> 0:00:59.560 Who more on that stuff later in the show. Because 0:00:59.560 --> 0:01:02.040 I actually lost the offer bet to you, uh so, 0:01:02.120 --> 0:01:04.720 I owe you fifty dollars we discussed on Thursday's pod. 0:01:05.240 --> 0:01:08.839 There's a lot a lot here. We break the games 0:01:08.840 --> 0:01:12.720 down into four categories. My picks, stay aways, be carefuls, 0:01:12.720 --> 0:01:15.720 and perfectly priced. Now the reason you would listen to 0:01:15.760 --> 0:01:18.119 me on this is theoretically, if I'm making you money, 0:01:18.880 --> 0:01:22.040 I'm giving out good picks. We can show you my 0:01:22.160 --> 0:01:25.680 record thus far. It's not great. We've been two and 0:01:25.840 --> 0:01:30.679 three every god for saken week. We give you one 0:01:30.760 --> 0:01:33.880 lock a week. In those five we've missed two in 0:01:33.880 --> 0:01:37.600 a row. But that's where the real frustration comes. Because 0:01:37.640 --> 0:01:41.640 two weeks ago our lock was Baltimore minus three and 0:01:41.720 --> 0:01:45.160 a half against Miami and they are up twenty one 0:01:45.200 --> 0:01:47.840 points in the fourth quarter and they blew it. You 0:01:47.880 --> 0:01:51.520 can start the clock, they blew it. And last week 0:01:51.560 --> 0:01:54.160 our lock with San Francisco minus one and a half, 0:01:54.600 --> 0:01:57.280 and that was as painful of a gambling loss for 0:01:57.440 --> 0:02:02.720 you and for me as I've ever had. Even when 0:02:02.760 --> 0:02:05.640 Denver took the lead, the bat was still very live. 0:02:06.440 --> 0:02:09.560 If San Francisco, if Jimmy g doesn't throw that last 0:02:09.600 --> 0:02:13.880 pick kick a field goal, win by two. So the 0:02:14.080 --> 0:02:17.760 reason I, while I'm sick to my stomach about it, 0:02:18.960 --> 0:02:23.600 the reason I don't I haven't questioned the process is 0:02:23.680 --> 0:02:27.880 this because we have told you to be Oh. And 0:02:27.919 --> 0:02:32.320 the teaser we gave out last week was it it 0:02:32.520 --> 0:02:39.240 was Philly, which covered Houston, which covered and the Chiefs 0:02:39.240 --> 0:02:43.440 who blew it, which is why teasers are But here's 0:02:43.480 --> 0:02:45.200 the thing. If you've been listening to us on this 0:02:46.000 --> 0:02:49.320 been three weeks of NFL gambling, you are down just 0:02:50.440 --> 0:02:55.400 three units plus the big six wins nine losses. We 0:02:55.440 --> 0:02:57.400 should be eight and seven and three and zero on 0:02:57.440 --> 0:03:00.280 the locks. Our two locks have been our two worst 0:03:00.280 --> 0:03:02.440 speeds of the year. We also got screwed in the 0:03:02.520 --> 0:03:05.000 Jacksonville game in week one, in Carolina game in week one, 0:03:05.200 --> 0:03:08.160 and we've only really gotten lucky once and that was 0:03:08.200 --> 0:03:14.400 the Arizona Vegas game. But the process is sound. We 0:03:14.440 --> 0:03:19.520 haven't had any true disasters. We just need one outstanding 0:03:19.600 --> 0:03:22.560 week five and oh might be too much. Four and 0:03:22.639 --> 0:03:25.320 one would be great to be back on track and 0:03:25.440 --> 0:03:27.480 to really after the first month of the season like 0:03:27.639 --> 0:03:30.520 teams in the NFL two and two after one month 0:03:30.840 --> 0:03:33.600 we can deal with. If we're around five hundred after 0:03:33.639 --> 0:03:37.080 a month, we can deal with it. So we are 0:03:37.120 --> 0:03:41.600 giving out five picks this week. They are as follows, 0:03:41.880 --> 0:03:45.840 and we will explain them as follows. The first one 0:03:46.280 --> 0:03:48.200 is you gotta wake up early to see this game 0:03:48.800 --> 0:03:55.400 Minnesota minus two and a half against New Orleans in London. 0:03:55.720 --> 0:03:59.320 Demons if you remember when you and I were guessing 0:03:59.360 --> 0:04:03.200 the lines on Sunday and you told me, I guess 0:04:03.280 --> 0:04:09.440 this line, and you told I think I said, because 0:04:09.480 --> 0:04:12.640 you said to me Minnesota at New Orleans and I said, 0:04:12.640 --> 0:04:15.800 I probably Minnesota by about three. You said, yeah, two 0:04:15.840 --> 0:04:18.479 and a half, and then we realized the game was 0:04:18.480 --> 0:04:23.120 in London. I don't understand how Minnesota is less than 0:04:23.120 --> 0:04:26.839 a field goal favorite on a neutral site against a 0:04:26.880 --> 0:04:31.640 New Orleans team that sucks. That stinks. Jameis Winston, as 0:04:31.680 --> 0:04:35.239 of today, is yet to practice this week. We'll see, 0:04:35.279 --> 0:04:38.240 Like we don't have the latest injury report for Thursday, 0:04:38.680 --> 0:04:44.119 but didn't practice on Wednesday. Dennis Allen consistently has shown 0:04:44.120 --> 0:04:48.000 throughout his career's not an NFL head coach. The skill 0:04:48.120 --> 0:04:51.320 position guys for the Saints are banged up. Minnesota, on 0:04:51.400 --> 0:04:56.560 the other hand, we know Kirk Cousin stinks at night. Well, 0:04:56.600 --> 0:04:58.800 now he gets to play at six in the morning. 0:04:59.279 --> 0:05:01.559 Well it's not really in the morning, but it's in London. 0:05:01.640 --> 0:05:05.320 We understand. I think Minnesota is a good team. I 0:05:05.440 --> 0:05:09.680 have no evidence whatsoever that New Orleans is a good team. 0:05:10.000 --> 0:05:13.880 New Orleans beat Atlanta by the skin of their teeth 0:05:13.880 --> 0:05:17.120 in Week one needed a sixteen point fourth quarter comeback. 0:05:17.880 --> 0:05:22.359 They then got bullied by Tampa and lost, I would say, 0:05:22.800 --> 0:05:26.359 convincingly to Carolina, a game that at one point was 0:05:26.480 --> 0:05:29.599 twenty two to seven against Carolina, which is not proven 0:05:29.640 --> 0:05:32.880 to be good. Yea, I think Minnesota is a good team. 0:05:33.040 --> 0:05:35.520 I think New Orleans is not a good team. I'm 0:05:35.680 --> 0:05:38.960 laying less than a field goal. I really like this game. 0:05:39.360 --> 0:05:43.479 Minnesota minus two and a half against New Orleans in London. 0:05:43.760 --> 0:05:46.640 That's pick one. I almost made it our lock of 0:05:46.640 --> 0:05:49.520 the week. I didn't quite do that, to be totally honest, 0:05:49.800 --> 0:05:53.440 because this isn't really sound logically, but it's the first 0:05:53.480 --> 0:05:56.040 it's the nine am start time or whatever it is. 0:05:56.320 --> 0:05:58.840 I don't want to risk losing my lock before the 0:05:58.960 --> 0:06:02.440 NFL actually gets going. I just put such a damper 0:06:02.480 --> 0:06:04.720 on my day. I don't want to risk it. All 0:06:04.800 --> 0:06:08.760 right now, we are yet to include a Chiefs game 0:06:09.400 --> 0:06:13.800 in any of our picks. However, if you remember our 0:06:13.920 --> 0:06:21.280 analysis so far in discussing the Chiefs games, we said 0:06:21.279 --> 0:06:24.320 in Week one we expect the Chiefs to be winning 0:06:24.320 --> 0:06:26.680 by double digits, but we didn't want to lay. I 0:06:26.680 --> 0:06:29.560 think it was six against Arizona because they won't quit 0:06:29.640 --> 0:06:32.719 the good backdoor cover. They didn't quit. They did score 0:06:32.760 --> 0:06:35.440 a bunch late. The Chiefs were just up by like 0:06:35.520 --> 0:06:39.560 thirty though, so the analysis was sound there. Week two, 0:06:40.800 --> 0:06:44.839 we said Kansas City minus three. We liked Kansas City 0:06:45.520 --> 0:06:48.400 minus three and a half or four against the Chargers. 0:06:48.640 --> 0:06:51.800 We wanted to stay away from. The Chiefs won by three. 0:06:52.720 --> 0:06:57.120 Week three, we included the Chiefs in the be careful 0:06:57.200 --> 0:07:01.640 area because it fell like a little too easy of 0:07:01.680 --> 0:07:05.200 a line. The colt stink the Chiefs are awesome? Why 0:07:05.240 --> 0:07:06.799 aren't they favored by a touchdown? 0:07:07.000 --> 0:07:07.120 Now? 0:07:07.160 --> 0:07:10.840 I didn't think the Chiefs could lose outright, but we 0:07:10.920 --> 0:07:13.760 had that one right as well. For the first time, 0:07:13.760 --> 0:07:17.760 we're including the Chiefs and one of our picks. They 0:07:17.920 --> 0:07:20.680 just have to beat the Bucks. I believe they will 0:07:20.720 --> 0:07:23.040 beat the Bucks. Kin City minus one. 0:07:23.040 --> 0:07:23.720 Is the play. 0:07:25.080 --> 0:07:27.560 Patrick Mahomes. We've gone over it as the greatest September 0:07:27.600 --> 0:07:30.720 quarterback in league history. The Chiefs have a little bit 0:07:30.760 --> 0:07:34.080 of get back in them for this game because the 0:07:34.080 --> 0:07:35.960 Bucks did beat them in the Super Bowl, and the 0:07:36.000 --> 0:07:39.920 Chiefs blew that game last week. Tampa doesn't shouldn't feel 0:07:39.960 --> 0:07:42.680 like they blew that game last week. Tampa against Green Bay. 0:07:42.800 --> 0:07:44.560 Was lucky to be in the game at the end. 0:07:44.720 --> 0:07:44.920 Yeah. 0:07:46.400 --> 0:07:50.440 Additional, Mahomes knows this might be the last time he 0:07:50.480 --> 0:07:54.840 ever plays Brady. In fact, unless both teams make the 0:07:54.880 --> 0:07:58.080 Super Bowl, or unless Brady changes teams, this will be 0:07:58.120 --> 0:08:00.520 the last time he ever plays Brady. You don't play 0:08:00.640 --> 0:08:03.440 the NFC team more than once every few years. This 0:08:03.520 --> 0:08:06.360 is going to be Mahomes's last shot at Brady, unless 0:08:06.640 --> 0:08:08.480 both teams make the super Bowl this year or Brady 0:08:08.560 --> 0:08:12.120 keeps playing longer. I don't think the Chiefs are going 0:08:12.200 --> 0:08:14.600 to have the kicking issues they had last week. I 0:08:14.600 --> 0:08:17.200 don't think the Chiefs are going to have the drop 0:08:17.280 --> 0:08:20.960 passes they had last week, the cowardly fourth down decisions 0:08:21.000 --> 0:08:24.320 they had last week. Tampa, on the other hand, I 0:08:24.360 --> 0:08:25.640 think is going to struggle. 0:08:25.760 --> 0:08:27.080 This game is going to be in October. 0:08:27.080 --> 0:08:27.360 Though. 0:08:30.120 --> 0:08:31.160 Oh, that's a good point. 0:08:30.920 --> 0:08:32.920 Patrick mahums the best September Rady quarterback. 0:08:33.000 --> 0:08:34.920 Okay, you know what, that's a fair point. I still 0:08:35.000 --> 0:08:36.920 like the Chiefs. You know what, you are correct, though, 0:08:36.960 --> 0:08:40.160 it will be in October. Well done, sir. The final 0:08:40.240 --> 0:08:46.880 September game was Bengals Dolphins. My apologies. That's a good point. 0:08:46.920 --> 0:08:49.520 I didn't realize it the day before my birthday. Actually, 0:08:51.800 --> 0:08:53.880 I don't think Kana City is going to have the 0:08:53.880 --> 0:08:57.120 cowardly fourth down issues that had had this past week. 0:08:57.360 --> 0:09:01.520 And I think Tampa, even with the weapons back, is 0:09:01.559 --> 0:09:05.640 going to struggle to score twenty one points. The Chiefs 0:09:05.640 --> 0:09:11.040 in Mahomes' career have lost twice ever when the defense 0:09:11.080 --> 0:09:14.719 allows less than twenty seven points. Oddly enough, both were 0:09:14.760 --> 0:09:18.559 to the Colts. One was last week. So can Tampa 0:09:18.600 --> 0:09:21.640 get to twenty seven? I don't think so. The Chiefs 0:09:21.679 --> 0:09:25.120 won't lose a back to back games where the defense 0:09:25.160 --> 0:09:28.880 plays well. I believe in Mahomes. I actually do believe 0:09:28.880 --> 0:09:31.880 in Tampa's well. But we said before the year the 0:09:32.200 --> 0:09:34.839 most brutal part of Tampa's schedule was this opening month. 0:09:35.040 --> 0:09:38.160 They're dealing with even more injuries than we thought. It 0:09:38.160 --> 0:09:40.920 then softens up greatly. If you remember, for the year, 0:09:40.960 --> 0:09:43.680 I said, if you gave me odds, I would bet 0:09:43.720 --> 0:09:46.560 Tampa under one and a half wins through four weeks. 0:09:46.960 --> 0:09:51.200 I love Tampa at under two wins through four weeks, 0:09:51.200 --> 0:09:52.960 knowing if they go two and two it's a push. 0:09:53.240 --> 0:09:55.120 I don't think Tampa's going three and one in the 0:09:55.160 --> 0:09:58.600 first month. I don't think Brady's just right yet. I 0:09:58.640 --> 0:10:01.120 do think the Chiefs offensive line bounces back. I like 0:10:01.200 --> 0:10:06.080 Kansa City minus one, all right, one more favorite, and 0:10:06.120 --> 0:10:10.040 I understand that underdogs are usually the sharper side of things. 0:10:11.000 --> 0:10:15.200 This one, however, I think it's gonna fall into a 0:10:15.200 --> 0:10:16.199 few of my rules. 0:10:16.600 --> 0:10:18.600 You gotta explain yourself a bit on this one. 0:10:18.880 --> 0:10:23.760 Okay, Las Vegas minus three at home against Denver, yep, Okay. 0:10:24.400 --> 0:10:28.000 Serious, any game that russ was due, it's this one 0:10:28.040 --> 0:10:28.880 against the Raiders. 0:10:28.920 --> 0:10:29.160 Why. 0:10:29.320 --> 0:10:30.960 I mean, the Raiders are ah and three, they're just 0:10:31.040 --> 0:10:34.760 not good. And then Russell Wilson, I feel like, given 0:10:34.840 --> 0:10:37.640 his history and with that one drive that he was himself, 0:10:37.800 --> 0:10:38.960 I think they we're going to see a lot more 0:10:39.000 --> 0:10:39.800 of that in the Raiders game. 0:10:39.920 --> 0:10:41.959 Okay, here's what I think. I don't think the Raiders 0:10:41.960 --> 0:10:45.040 are going to be four and thirteen, and they got 0:10:45.160 --> 0:10:48.160 to start winning games at some point. Okay, they're at home, 0:10:49.080 --> 0:10:56.400 they're desperate. Denver meanwhile, maybe feeling a little better about 0:10:56.400 --> 0:10:59.880 itself than it should being two and one when they're 0:11:00.120 --> 0:11:03.679 and not playing up to that level. Additionally, I said, 0:11:04.200 --> 0:11:07.280 until proven otherwise. Nathaniel Hackett is a must fade against 0:11:07.320 --> 0:11:09.439 a good coach. Now, I don't know that Josh McDaniels 0:11:09.520 --> 0:11:12.000 is a good coach, and I wouldn't love Denver at 0:11:12.000 --> 0:11:14.680 minus three and a half. And in fact, I think 0:11:14.800 --> 0:11:17.720 right now you can get them in some spots at 0:11:17.720 --> 0:11:19.960 minus two and a half. If I wanted to try 0:11:20.000 --> 0:11:22.280 to juice my numbers a bit, I would have. The 0:11:22.280 --> 0:11:25.880 producers have changed it, but we use the Fox Bet 0:11:25.880 --> 0:11:30.400 lines at the moment. The super contest locks our lines lock, 0:11:30.720 --> 0:11:33.240 so we got locked in at three. I think the 0:11:33.320 --> 0:11:37.360 Raiders win this game. The Denver offense has been absolutely brutal. 0:11:37.640 --> 0:11:40.120 I think DeVante Adams has a bounce back game after 0:11:40.120 --> 0:11:42.480 a couple quiet weeks, and I think the Raiders get 0:11:42.480 --> 0:11:43.120 to one and three. 0:11:43.160 --> 0:11:45.480 What's up if the Raiders don't bounce back this week? 0:11:45.520 --> 0:11:48.880 What's the narrative moving forward about the Raiders? Or yes, 0:11:49.200 --> 0:11:52.520 the Raiders that McDaniels is the wrong guy. Okay, I 0:11:52.520 --> 0:11:54.839 mean Derek Carr will catch some of it. But they 0:11:54.840 --> 0:11:57.400 were a playoff team last year. The playoff team. But 0:11:57.559 --> 0:12:02.400 think about that. Henry Ruggs had the tragedy, Gruden had 0:12:02.400 --> 0:12:06.000 the horrifying emails, They had a oh yeah, they got 0:12:06.000 --> 0:12:08.040 a bunch of bunch of stopped. 0:12:07.800 --> 0:12:12.240 Last year and they made the playoffs. Then they add 0:12:12.280 --> 0:12:17.760 Devanta Adams, they start ow owing four disaster. Additionally, the Raiders' 0:12:17.800 --> 0:12:20.280 biggest weakness for years has been they can't create a 0:12:20.280 --> 0:12:23.360 pass rush. Well, luckily, Russell Wilson creates one of his 0:12:23.400 --> 0:12:27.520 own by the way he handles himself in the pocket, 0:12:27.880 --> 0:12:31.480 he hurts his offensive line. I think the I think 0:12:31.520 --> 0:12:34.640 the general public is gonna love the Broncos on the 0:12:34.640 --> 0:12:38.040 money line and the Broncos plus the points. I like 0:12:38.120 --> 0:12:41.760 the Raiders at home. Laying the three points now to 0:12:41.800 --> 0:12:45.360 some dogs first few weeks is the type of game 0:12:45.360 --> 0:12:48.120 I wouldn't have bet, and I'd say to stay away 0:12:48.559 --> 0:12:51.360 because you know why, I just don't want to watch it. 0:12:52.040 --> 0:12:56.680 That's no way to make money. The Bears play the Giants. 0:12:57.000 --> 0:12:59.880 You bet on Chicago every week, No, I don't. 0:13:00.040 --> 0:13:02.160 This is the first time I bet on Chicago, first 0:13:02.200 --> 0:13:06.040 time I've bet against them. I bet against them in 0:13:06.160 --> 0:13:10.720 week one. Always Chicago has been involved. That that's fair 0:13:11.040 --> 0:13:13.040 because week one. Let me see who they've played each 0:13:13.080 --> 0:13:15.960 week and I'll explain it. So week one they were 0:13:15.960 --> 0:13:19.800 playing the Niners in the monsoon and that one, I 0:13:20.120 --> 0:13:24.839 went with the Niners. Week two, my lock, I had 0:13:24.880 --> 0:13:27.360 Green Bay and I went against them. So I've gone 0:13:27.400 --> 0:13:31.040 against Chicago every weekend. It's not that and now and 0:13:31.080 --> 0:13:35.000 then three I had Houston plus two and a half 0:13:35.320 --> 0:13:39.360 in a game that was stolen from me, absolute theft 0:13:39.760 --> 0:13:42.600 that that one didn't cover. These Chicago wins on a 0:13:42.600 --> 0:13:45.280 field goal at the gun after a terrible Davis Mills interception. 0:13:46.120 --> 0:13:48.959 This week, I'm going with the Bears. The Bears plus 0:13:49.000 --> 0:13:53.240 three against the Giants. Here's why. I know the Bears 0:13:53.240 --> 0:13:53.880 can run the ball. 0:13:55.080 --> 0:13:55.679 I know the. 0:13:55.640 --> 0:13:58.480 Bears are not going to ask Justin Fields to throw 0:13:58.480 --> 0:14:02.000 the football because they're one with him throwing twenty three passes. 0:14:02.800 --> 0:14:05.560 The Giants are on a short week. The Giants just 0:14:05.600 --> 0:14:09.640 lost Sterling Shepherd. You know, unfortunately for the season, Kenny 0:14:09.679 --> 0:14:14.240 Galladay has been a disaster. The Bears are just gonna say, 0:14:15.120 --> 0:14:18.760 we're gonna stop Saquon. Add to that, it's been two 0:14:18.760 --> 0:14:22.880 weeks since Daniel Jones fumbled. He's got one coming that much. 0:14:22.920 --> 0:14:26.240 You can guarantee that's me, Revin. If you hear the 0:14:26.280 --> 0:14:28.400 background noise, this is me, Revin, my engine to bet 0:14:28.480 --> 0:14:33.040 this bit game. This is a just a vintage grab 0:14:33.080 --> 0:14:36.240 the points game. I'm getting Chicago. I'm getting a full 0:14:36.280 --> 0:14:40.200 field goal. They absolutely could win the game out right. 0:14:40.360 --> 0:14:42.720 Whoever wins this game, by the way, is going to 0:14:42.720 --> 0:14:45.600 be the most fraudulent three to one in recent memories. 0:14:46.200 --> 0:14:48.080 I mean, these are two two and one teams that 0:14:48.120 --> 0:14:53.800 are just awful. But I'm getting the points. I don't 0:14:53.840 --> 0:14:56.840 think the Giants. I think the Giants fans are a 0:14:56.840 --> 0:15:02.800 little heartbroken from last week. I think the MetLife is 0:15:02.840 --> 0:15:05.360 not going to exactly be rocking for them. I like 0:15:05.440 --> 0:15:08.840 fading Daniel Jones. I don't know that Daniel Jones deserves 0:15:08.880 --> 0:15:12.200 to be a full field goal favorite over just about anybody. Also, 0:15:12.240 --> 0:15:15.600 when it comes to the Giants, I understand everyone loves 0:15:15.640 --> 0:15:17.800 the story of the Giants, or they did love the 0:15:17.800 --> 0:15:20.120 story of the Giants. Let me remind you what the 0:15:20.120 --> 0:15:24.560 Giants have done this year. In Week one, they play 0:15:24.600 --> 0:15:28.840 the Titans. It takes a last minute drive, plus a 0:15:28.880 --> 0:15:32.520 two point conversion, plus Randy Bullock missing a forty five 0:15:32.600 --> 0:15:35.720 yard field goal for them to want win. Week two, 0:15:36.760 --> 0:15:41.160 they beat Carolina at home on a fifty six yard 0:15:41.160 --> 0:15:44.480 field goal. Is the deciding play. That is, despite the 0:15:44.480 --> 0:15:47.840 fact that they won the turnover battle two to nothing. 0:15:48.200 --> 0:15:51.520 They beat Carolina nineteen sixteen, and week three they got 0:15:51.520 --> 0:15:55.280 beat by Cooper Rush in Dallas, so they're two to one. 0:15:56.120 --> 0:15:59.160 Yet they've been outscored on the season. They've shown no 0:15:59.280 --> 0:16:03.480 ability to beat a team by any significant margin. Both 0:16:03.480 --> 0:16:05.960 of their wins have come down to kicks in the 0:16:06.000 --> 0:16:11.800 final minutes. Chicago plus three and now my lock of 0:16:11.800 --> 0:16:15.720 the week, a team that is catching six and a 0:16:15.800 --> 0:16:20.880 half that I believe is going to win the game outright, 0:16:21.800 --> 0:16:24.880 and in fact, I even might have our first forget teaser, 0:16:25.200 --> 0:16:27.400 our first parlay of the week later. 0:16:27.200 --> 0:16:27.640 In the show. 0:16:28.760 --> 0:16:34.480 Jacksonville plus six and a half at Philly. Jacksonville is 0:16:34.640 --> 0:16:38.840 one defensive laps away from being three and up. Week two, 0:16:38.880 --> 0:16:41.360 they played the Colts, who are not good but not horrific, 0:16:42.120 --> 0:16:44.680 and blanked them twenty four to nothing. Week three, they 0:16:44.760 --> 0:16:49.280 played the Chargers and kicked the shit out of them. Philly, meanwhile, 0:16:49.760 --> 0:16:54.600 absolutely has looked very impressive. However, they've only played one 0:16:54.640 --> 0:16:56.960 team I truly believe in, and that team was Minnesota 0:16:57.000 --> 0:16:59.800 and it was on Monday Night, which is Kirk Cousins kryptonite. 0:17:00.200 --> 0:17:03.760 Week one, Philly played Detroit. Week three, Philly played Washington. 0:17:04.160 --> 0:17:06.600 Philly also the last two weeks has done something odd, 0:17:07.280 --> 0:17:11.040 jumped out to huge leads and then done nothing. Twenty 0:17:11.119 --> 0:17:14.199 four to seven was the halftime score against Minnesota, the 0:17:14.240 --> 0:17:18.080 final score twenty four to seven. Twenty four to nothing 0:17:18.400 --> 0:17:22.520 was the halftime score against Washington, final score twenty four 0:17:22.560 --> 0:17:25.760 to eight. So Philly has scored by the way. They 0:17:25.800 --> 0:17:27.720 all scored twenty four points in the first half of 0:17:27.800 --> 0:17:31.159 Week one, but they added fourteen more. Philly has not 0:17:31.160 --> 0:17:34.400 been a great second half team. Jacksonville I think will 0:17:34.440 --> 0:17:37.560 win this game out right. I would be shocked if 0:17:37.560 --> 0:17:41.000 they get blown out. This line opened at seven, and 0:17:41.040 --> 0:17:44.760 I told you Betty with it back before you retired 0:17:44.800 --> 0:17:49.240 from betting that betting Jacksonville plus seven was the move 0:17:49.280 --> 0:17:52.000 because it was gonna move a bit towards Jacksonville. It 0:17:52.080 --> 0:17:55.679 dated six and a half. Trevor Lawrence is the real 0:17:56.359 --> 0:18:01.240 fing deal. I like Jaleen Herds played great. Trevor Lawrence 0:18:01.320 --> 0:18:06.080 is better than him. Jacksonville's defense, with the number one 0:18:06.119 --> 0:18:10.120 pick of the draft Walker, he has been outstanding. They 0:18:10.119 --> 0:18:14.640 have a totally revamped defense. Doug Peterson has been good. 0:18:14.920 --> 0:18:18.439 Trevor Lawrence has been outstanding. That last two weeks they 0:18:18.440 --> 0:18:24.480 have won by a combined fifty two points. Philly also 0:18:26.080 --> 0:18:29.439 is a very good team, but they are not a 0:18:29.520 --> 0:18:31.040 juggernaut despite their record. 0:18:31.320 --> 0:18:31.760 What's up? 0:18:31.800 --> 0:18:35.040 What's the what's the well? Do you have a Are 0:18:35.040 --> 0:18:36.560 we good or no? 0:18:36.560 --> 0:18:36.840 No? No, no. 0:18:37.000 --> 0:18:38.600 I didn't know if you were gonna have an issue 0:18:38.600 --> 0:18:41.120 with my field, with my pick here your eyes. 0:18:41.200 --> 0:18:43.679 No. I like Philly the I don't like them like 0:18:44.080 --> 0:18:45.800 on this line, but I like Philly. 0:18:45.880 --> 0:18:47.760 I think Philly is a good team, and I think 0:18:47.840 --> 0:18:50.840 right now I laughed at people before the year that 0:18:50.880 --> 0:18:52.440 were saying the Eagles could be the one seed in 0:18:52.440 --> 0:18:54.960 the NFC. I was wrong. I think they will be 0:18:55.000 --> 0:18:57.520 the one seed in the NFC. Here's the other reason 0:18:57.520 --> 0:19:00.840 why I like Jacksonville. Here. Whether Philly will admit it 0:19:00.920 --> 0:19:03.960 or not, they know they don't need this game. Listen 0:19:04.000 --> 0:19:06.560 to what Philly has the rest of the way. I'll 0:19:06.600 --> 0:19:10.560 read you all their games at Arizona, Okay, A little 0:19:10.600 --> 0:19:16.200 tough home for Dallas, home for Pittsburgh at Houston, home 0:19:16.240 --> 0:19:20.359 for Washington at Indy, a little tough home for green Bay, 0:19:20.520 --> 0:19:24.840 very tough home for Tennessee at the Giants, at the Bears, 0:19:25.000 --> 0:19:27.840 at the Cowboys, home for New Orleans home for the Giants. 0:19:28.760 --> 0:19:32.679 They have four semi They have three semi two semi 0:19:32.720 --> 0:19:36.879 tough games, the Packers game and the Jags game. Every 0:19:36.880 --> 0:19:38.520 other game they play one of the worst teams in 0:19:38.520 --> 0:19:42.080 the league. I like Jacksonville. I believe in Trevor Lawrence. 0:19:42.200 --> 0:19:44.600 It's my lock of the week. So there's my five picks. 0:19:44.760 --> 0:19:47.679 Minnesota minus two and a half, Kent City minus one, 0:19:48.000 --> 0:19:52.600 Vegas minus three, Chicago plus three, and Jacksonville plus six 0:19:52.680 --> 0:19:55.400 and a half. We are going four and one at 0:19:55.400 --> 0:19:59.320 a minimum, we are getting the lock. At a minimum, 0:20:00.200 --> 0:20:03.680 five and zero could be on deck. If next week 0:20:03.720 --> 0:20:05.560 I come back here and we're two and three again, 0:20:06.280 --> 0:20:08.240 we gotta start the process over. 0:20:08.320 --> 0:20:10.119 I think we got to switch seats at that point 0:20:10.119 --> 0:20:11.080 in the Gambling Show. 0:20:11.840 --> 0:20:14.720 Oh oh, that's also by the way, We're gonna go 0:20:14.760 --> 0:20:16.520 through the rest of the slate quickly. In the B 0:20:16.520 --> 0:20:18.800 block and the Sea block will give you our survivor pick, 0:20:18.840 --> 0:20:20.840 which is the one thing we've done well in the 0:20:21.240 --> 0:20:24.760 nation where eighty percent of people have lost their survivor picks. Already, 0:20:24.880 --> 0:20:28.000 we've given you three winners, and Demons is gonna pick 0:20:28.359 --> 0:20:30.960 his three favorite bets of the week and We're gonna 0:20:31.000 --> 0:20:33.280 start tracking that as well to see if at the 0:20:33.359 --> 0:20:35.480 end of the season he would have been profitable if 0:20:35.480 --> 0:20:38.120 he didn't retire from gambling. All that coming up next 0:20:38.119 --> 0:20:40.120 What's Right. 0:20:45.600 --> 0:20:48.399 This episode is brought to you by Unstoppable. Discover the 0:20:48.400 --> 0:20:51.800 inspiring true story about Anthony Roeblas, who defined every expectation 0:20:51.840 --> 0:20:54.760 to become a national wrestling champion, and Unstoppable, a new 0:20:54.800 --> 0:20:58.359 original movie from Amazon MGM Studios and director William Goldenberg, 0:20:58.440 --> 0:21:01.520 evoking the excitement and come orado of classic sports dramas 0:21:01.520 --> 0:21:04.760 and thrilling wrestling matches. Unstoppable features an all star ensemble 0:21:04.800 --> 0:21:08.520 cast including Jarrel Jerome, Jennifer Lopez, dun Cheatle, Michael Tania, 0:21:08.560 --> 0:21:12.879 and Bobby Knavali. Watch Unstoppable now exclusively on Amazon Prime Video. 0:21:14.240 --> 0:21:16.600 All right, welcome back in What's Right? Nick Wright, Episode 0:21:16.680 --> 0:21:20.120 number seventy six, Week four NFL Gambling Show. Just gave 0:21:20.160 --> 0:21:22.800 you our five picks. We'll give you the exotics and 0:21:22.840 --> 0:21:26.119 the survivor pick and everything later in the show, but 0:21:26.320 --> 0:21:29.360 right now, we're going to go through the other eleven 0:21:29.440 --> 0:21:31.600 games on the slate in what category they're and we're 0:21:31.600 --> 0:21:34.520 gonna start with the stay aways. Demonse what's the first one? 0:21:34.880 --> 0:21:37.480 Uh? New England at green Bay? Green Bay favored by 0:21:37.560 --> 0:21:38.240 nine and a half. 0:21:38.400 --> 0:21:41.320 Yeah, this is a stay away for a number of reasons. 0:21:41.359 --> 0:21:43.880 One is the Patriots are pretending like Mac Jones might play, 0:21:43.880 --> 0:21:44.680 He's not gonna play. 0:21:45.080 --> 0:21:45.359 Okay. 0:21:45.520 --> 0:21:48.800 Now, do I believe green Bay has the ability to 0:21:48.920 --> 0:21:51.600 just kick the crap out of the Patriots? Of course 0:21:51.640 --> 0:21:55.359 I do, but I ain't the Patriots. If Hoyer's the quarterback, 0:21:56.000 --> 0:22:01.520 the game plan might be ball control, run the ball, 0:22:01.840 --> 0:22:07.679 punt fest and I could see a scenario where this 0:22:07.880 --> 0:22:11.520 the Patriots never have a chance to win the game, 0:22:12.280 --> 0:22:15.800 but are also it's a ten point game ish the 0:22:15.800 --> 0:22:19.920 whole way and they So it's a stay away because 0:22:19.920 --> 0:22:23.479 with Hoyer, I think there is a real possibility the 0:22:23.520 --> 0:22:29.440 Patriots plays such a conservative ball control style that it's 0:22:29.560 --> 0:22:32.680 tough for the Packers to score the If you're gonna 0:22:32.720 --> 0:22:35.400 lay ten, you want to believe the team can get 0:22:35.440 --> 0:22:38.359 to at least twenty seven, and I'm not certain the 0:22:38.400 --> 0:22:41.600 Patriots style of play is gonna allow that. I love 0:22:41.680 --> 0:22:44.440