WEBVTT - Strongly Worded Letters 0:00:02.759 --> 0:00:08.080 Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. 0:00:10.000 --> 0:00:14.560 How about them? Nixt Yeah, Michael R. Bloomberg photographed next 0:00:14.560 --> 0:00:17.000 to Timothy Shallamy and Kylie Jenner. That was a highlight 0:00:17.040 --> 0:00:19.920 for me. Taylor Switch was also there. Paul Tudor Jones 0:00:20.000 --> 0:00:22.680 was behind her. What an interesting cast of characters on 0:00:22.760 --> 0:00:23.480 Celebrity Row. 0:00:25.120 --> 0:00:27.120 It's funny. I feel like I've seen a number of 0:00:27.360 --> 0:00:29.920 articles about who was there on Celebrity Around. None of 0:00:29.960 --> 0:00:31.440 them mentioned Paul Tudor Jones. 0:00:31.560 --> 0:00:32.120 He was there. 0:00:33.560 --> 0:00:35.400 That's the kind of insight you need to come to 0:00:35.400 --> 0:00:36.000 Bloomberg for. 0:00:36.400 --> 0:00:39.760 I went to bed at halftime and the vibes were 0:00:39.840 --> 0:00:42.000 that of a funeral. Yeah, it was so bad. 0:00:42.120 --> 0:00:42.960 Then they changed. 0:00:43.120 --> 0:00:45.760 Oh my goodness did they change. I woke up at 0:00:45.840 --> 0:00:48.640 like one in the morning, and uh, I couldn't believe it. 0:00:48.840 --> 0:00:51.240 Can I tell you something cute? My kids love sports, 0:00:51.840 --> 0:00:56.400 and my I guess then loves basketball. But like he is, 0:00:56.560 --> 0:00:59.560 he is particularly enamored of half court shots, and he 0:00:59.680 --> 0:01:02.800 is like got it in his head that like a 0:01:02.840 --> 0:01:05.360 half court shot is the best thing in basketball. And 0:01:05.440 --> 0:01:07.920 so when like, you know, they go to bed before 0:01:07.959 --> 0:01:10.160 the next games, but like they could come down sturds 0:01:10.160 --> 0:01:12.280 in the morning, We're like the nixt one one, O seven, 0:01:12.319 --> 0:01:14.480 one of the six was a huge comeback, and he's like, 0:01:14.600 --> 0:01:15.920 were there any half court shots? 0:01:16.560 --> 0:01:18.400 Otherwise I'm not interested. 0:01:18.959 --> 0:01:22.120 It's pretty like one day in like the previous Spurs series. 0:01:22.120 --> 0:01:23.880 I cou'd be like, yes, Wemby made a half court 0:01:23.920 --> 0:01:25.319 shot at the first half. 0:01:25.880 --> 0:01:26.920 We don't speak his names. 0:01:27.040 --> 0:01:31.480 Yeah, Hello, and welcome to the Money Stuff Podcast. I'm 0:01:31.480 --> 0:01:34.080 Matt Levin and I heard the Money Stuff calm with. 0:01:34.200 --> 0:01:37.600 Then we're Companion, and I'm Katie Greifeld, a reporter for 0:01:37.640 --> 0:01:39.880 Bloomberg News and an anchor for Bloomberg Television. 0:01:41.520 --> 0:01:43.839 I was thinking, like two weeks ago you were talking 0:01:43.840 --> 0:01:47.720 about how we were going to be recording this like 0:01:47.920 --> 0:01:51.560 a crucial time for the space x Ipo because we're 0:01:51.560 --> 0:01:55.120 recording this at like two in the afternoon on thirteen 0:01:55.280 --> 0:01:58.920 to thirteen on Thursday, and it'll come out, you know, 0:01:59.240 --> 0:02:03.760 in the morning ish on Friday, and between now and then, 0:02:04.640 --> 0:02:07.640 the SpaceX IPI will have priced and maybe even started 0:02:07.680 --> 0:02:11.519 trading all that kind of dobt that and what will 0:02:11.560 --> 0:02:14.639 we do? What will we do? I read about it 0:02:14.680 --> 0:02:19.000 today a little bit. Yeah, time today was about why 0:02:19.040 --> 0:02:24.040 we're podcasting today. I kind of was like, there's no, 0:02:24.080 --> 0:02:27.160 there's not a pricing today, Like I understand that the 0:02:27.200 --> 0:02:29.440 IPI is pricing today, but actually priced a week ago 0:02:29.560 --> 0:02:31.519 because they went out at a fixed price and a 0:02:31.560 --> 0:02:34.040 fixed number of shares. They're like, the price is one 0:02:34.160 --> 0:02:37.200 thirty five per sure, take it or leave it? All 0:02:37.200 --> 0:02:38.400 accounts are that people took it? 0:02:38.560 --> 0:02:39.560 Yeah, a lot of people. 0:02:39.960 --> 0:02:42.080 It's like Blombers. Last reporting I think was that it 0:02:42.120 --> 0:02:44.600 was four times over subscribe, but that's like the institutional 0:02:44.680 --> 0:02:46.680 there's also like a hundred billion of retailer ITER's like 0:02:46.720 --> 0:02:54.680 it's significantly over subscribed, and so it would be interesting 0:02:54.880 --> 0:02:57.560 if it prices tonight at like one hundred and forty 0:02:57.600 --> 0:02:59.000 dollars or share, but I don't think they can even 0:02:59.040 --> 0:03:01.000 do that. I think they're in a price at the 0:03:01.040 --> 0:03:04.400 price they've said they're going to price to that, and 0:03:04.440 --> 0:03:07.520 then so we know the space, like if your price 0:03:07.520 --> 0:03:09.120 which is one hundred and thirty five dollars per share, 0:03:09.160 --> 0:03:11.320 we're going to beat this if if if I'm wrong. 0:03:11.520 --> 0:03:14.800 This makes my job on television today a lot easier 0:03:14.960 --> 0:03:16.440 because we're awaiting the pricing. 0:03:16.400 --> 0:03:19.160 Waiting pricing, and then like it's one hundred thirty five. 0:03:19.639 --> 0:03:21.040 And then of course the question is where it all 0:03:21.040 --> 0:03:23.960 open tomorrow, whichill probably happen after we published this episode. 0:03:24.000 --> 0:03:25.840 But theoretically, yeah. 0:03:25.720 --> 0:03:27.519 No, not theoretically, I mean, like you know, the stock 0:03:27.560 --> 0:03:29.120 exchange opens at nine thirty in the morning. 0:03:29.360 --> 0:03:33.480 Yeah, it's like, but I feel like you get first trades. 0:03:33.240 --> 0:03:35.240 They're like two in the after Yeah, it's all right, 0:03:35.280 --> 0:03:37.520 So it could open because they're going out at a 0:03:37.520 --> 0:03:42.120 fixed price that is, like Elon Musk's arbitrary decision. It 0:03:42.160 --> 0:03:47.600 could open wildly up or wildly down. Yeah, But I 0:03:47.600 --> 0:03:48.960 mean the thing that I read about today is like 0:03:49.000 --> 0:03:52.440 there's there's like market prices, right, so there's like the 0:03:52.480 --> 0:03:56.320 secondary private company secondaries like the five and forge inequities 0:03:56.360 --> 0:03:58.880 on which like I don't know how real those prices are, 0:03:58.880 --> 0:04:01.680 I don't know how much trades. And then yeah, but 0:04:01.680 --> 0:04:05.720 there's also like pretty robust gambling markets. Yes it's not 0:04:05.760 --> 0:04:09.280 just like polymarket, but also like finance and hyper liquid, 0:04:09.280 --> 0:04:14.080 like big crypto exchanges run essentially cash settled derivatives markets, 0:04:14.120 --> 0:04:16.240 right where you can just bet on the price of 0:04:16.400 --> 0:04:19.279 baseix luck, and then like you know, it eventually morphs 0:04:19.320 --> 0:04:21.960 into connecting to the actual public price of the stuck 0:04:22.160 --> 0:04:24.840 and those are training it like you know, up, you know, 0:04:25.240 --> 0:04:28.520 twenty percent from the IPO price, which is kind of 0:04:28.560 --> 0:04:30.960 what you want in an IPO. Yeah, I don't know. 0:04:31.080 --> 0:04:33.440 The market is kind of saying like you've done it perfectly. 0:04:33.440 --> 0:04:35.840 Elon Muss, you got it right on the first try. Yeah. 0:04:35.880 --> 0:04:39.120 I was actually having a conversation around like betting markets 0:04:39.200 --> 0:04:43.400 and this particular IPO, how they seem particularly relevant for 0:04:43.600 --> 0:04:46.599 this offering since there's just so much demand and it 0:04:46.600 --> 0:04:48.960 seems hard to get your little hands on it. 0:04:49.160 --> 0:04:51.279 Right. I feel like I spent a lot of time 0:04:51.839 --> 0:04:55.760 complaining about the betting markets. Yeah, for two reasons. One 0:04:56.040 --> 0:04:59.320 like mostly their sports bets and that's annoying, and then 0:04:59.440 --> 0:05:02.680 secondly today extent their stock market bets, like that's just illegal, 0:05:02.760 --> 0:05:05.000 and like all of these things are offshore like polymarket 0:05:05.040 --> 0:05:08.360 and Binance and hyper liquid other spaceix stock price bets 0:05:08.400 --> 0:05:11.240 are not open to US customers because like it's just 0:05:11.400 --> 0:05:14.719 clearly forbidden by US securities law and kind of for 0:05:14.760 --> 0:05:18.160 good reason. But also like the argument like they provide 0:05:19.000 --> 0:05:21.760 truth function and price seek and you know, and and 0:05:22.520 --> 0:05:26.000 price discovery is kind of real, right yeah, maybe right, 0:05:26.240 --> 0:05:28.680 Like if the stock opens at like four hundred tomorrow 0:05:28.760 --> 0:05:33.560 or like forty then whoops, never mind, But like for now, 0:05:33.640 --> 0:05:35.960 these things are like yeah, you got it perfectly right, 0:05:36.240 --> 0:05:36.520 you know. 0:05:37.040 --> 0:05:39.360 Yeah, to the point like are you only talking about 0:05:39.400 --> 0:05:43.279 individual stocks? Can I bet on the future movement of 0:05:43.320 --> 0:05:45.760 the S and P five hundred in the next fifteen minutes? 0:05:46.279 --> 0:05:48.480 Some more complicated question, but like I think the short 0:05:48.520 --> 0:05:50.120 answer is like yeah, you kind of can, because like 0:05:50.440 --> 0:05:54.279 for some reason index features the regulator regime is so weird. 0:05:54.440 --> 0:06:01.039 But basically, prediction markets are commodities exchanges, and for boring 0:06:01.160 --> 0:06:05.520 historical reasons, index futures are traded on commodities exchanges and 0:06:05.640 --> 0:06:09.360 so like cals, she can list them, and single stock 0:06:09.440 --> 0:06:13.960 futures are SEC regulated and so can't list them. And 0:06:14.240 --> 0:06:14.640 it's like. 0:06:14.640 --> 0:06:16.560 Marked it than that, but feel like we're getting into 0:06:16.640 --> 0:06:20.440 dangerous territory. Well also with our we're going to talk 0:06:20.480 --> 0:06:22.880 a little bit about the regular regime, but I want 0:06:22.880 --> 0:06:26.559 to talk about SpaceX a little bit more. Oh SMP 0:06:26.760 --> 0:06:27.159 came out. 0:06:27.440 --> 0:06:29.200 Yeah, we haven't talked about this. 0:06:29.160 --> 0:06:31.599 I know, which is crazy because it feels like so 0:06:31.680 --> 0:06:33.640 long ago, because every day it feels like a year. 0:06:34.040 --> 0:06:36.320 Right, everyone was like all the indexes are changing their 0:06:36.400 --> 0:06:40.040 rules to let SpaceX enter their index as fast as possible, 0:06:40.520 --> 0:06:44.240 and shocker SNP like put out a consultation being like, 0:06:44.240 --> 0:06:46.600 we're going to waive our profitability requirements and let them 0:06:46.600 --> 0:06:49.359 in in six months, and then they're like, Nope, we 0:06:49.400 --> 0:06:51.520 did the consultation and we decided we're not going to 0:06:51.560 --> 0:06:51.760 do that. 0:06:51.960 --> 0:06:55.640 So now we're talking about potentially a year before well. 0:06:55.520 --> 0:06:57.200 The minimum is a year. But then like they also 0:06:57.200 --> 0:06:58.760 have to be profitable, you know, I think I think 0:06:58.800 --> 0:07:00.760 the SMP rules you have to be probable for like 0:07:01.240 --> 0:07:05.559 four quarters basically, yeah, which is that's true twenty forty 0:07:05.720 --> 0:07:06.080 you know. 0:07:06.400 --> 0:07:08.800 So you're maybe a little bit optimistic. This was a 0:07:08.839 --> 0:07:11.640 shakra though. I remember chatting about it with my ETF 0:07:11.720 --> 0:07:15.000 friends over at Bloomberg Intelligence and they were replacing like 0:07:15.160 --> 0:07:17.360 seventy five percent odds that the S and P five 0:07:17.440 --> 0:07:19.600 hundred or the S and P rather would do what 0:07:19.680 --> 0:07:23.320 all the other index providers did, And what an interesting 0:07:23.360 --> 0:07:26.320 world this is going to create, right, It's kind of 0:07:26.440 --> 0:07:28.360 ugly for the other index providers. 0:07:28.760 --> 0:07:31.080 All of it is ugly for all index providers in 0:07:31.120 --> 0:07:34.240 the sense that if you think that you are a 0:07:34.280 --> 0:07:37.600 passive investor by buying, you know, an undifferent like whatever 0:07:37.640 --> 0:07:40.360 index you happen to buy, then it's a little annoying 0:07:40.360 --> 0:07:42.560 to be like, no, these are like active decisions made 0:07:42.560 --> 0:07:45.840 by committees after consultations in round numbers. Is the S 0:07:45.840 --> 0:07:50.400 and P five hundred the same thing as the CRISP 0:07:50.440 --> 0:07:53.440 Total Stock Market index that underlies the big Vanguard fund 0:07:53.720 --> 0:07:57.760 like kind of right, but for the next year or 0:07:57.800 --> 0:08:00.880 two or five, they're going to have wildly divergent performance 0:08:00.920 --> 0:08:04.240 because one of them will have the three big as 0:08:04.320 --> 0:08:08.040 STACs basically and one of them won't, right, Yeah, and 0:08:08.240 --> 0:08:11.800 that's going to be a big difference in index performance. 0:08:12.000 --> 0:08:14.440 And pere like, wow, some passive investment, you know. It's 0:08:14.440 --> 0:08:17.000 just like it's like such an active decision that has 0:08:17.040 --> 0:08:18.960 such an economic invit By the way, you're like, oh, 0:08:19.000 --> 0:08:20.760 it's it's bad for the other index providers, Like I 0:08:20.800 --> 0:08:22.760 don't know, it depends if they go up optically. 0:08:22.880 --> 0:08:24.280 I'm just talking about the optics. 0:08:24.360 --> 0:08:27.840 Someone everyone says, like I understand that, like the sort 0:08:27.840 --> 0:08:31.080 of like house view everywhere is that these index providers 0:08:31.160 --> 0:08:34.920 are evil for changing their rules to accommodate Elon Musk. 0:08:35.040 --> 0:08:37.559 I don't think that's true. I think it's like they're 0:08:37.559 --> 0:08:40.200 like look, you know, our job is to provide exposure 0:08:40.200 --> 0:08:42.440 to the stock the stock market. 0:08:42.960 --> 0:08:46.120 I am sympathetic to that view. I mean, you think 0:08:46.120 --> 0:08:48.760 about the mission of a lot of these indexes, the 0:08:48.840 --> 0:08:50.880 Nasdaq one hundred. They want to have the one hundred 0:08:51.000 --> 0:08:54.840 largest companies that are listed on Nasdaq. It makes sense. 0:08:54.960 --> 0:08:59.319 But definitely have seen SMP presented as like their decision, 0:08:59.320 --> 0:09:00.800 they're the adult in the room here. 0:09:01.200 --> 0:09:03.880 There's vocal support for what SMP did. I think there's 0:09:03.960 --> 0:09:06.280 vocal like, yeah, I got an email from one reader 0:09:06.320 --> 0:09:09.560 who's like, look, I don't buy the SMP to buy 0:09:09.720 --> 0:09:11.760 all like the five hundred biggest companies. I buy the 0:09:11.840 --> 0:09:15.880 SMP for its rules that you have to be profitable 0:09:15.880 --> 0:09:18.719 and liquid and you know, seasoned public company. And he 0:09:18.840 --> 0:09:21.400 might be the only one. I don't really believe that. 0:09:21.400 --> 0:09:23.960 That's how most like retirement savers are like, oh, you 0:09:23.960 --> 0:09:26.520 know what I really care about is SMP's rules. You know, 0:09:28.040 --> 0:09:30.120 so clearly that guy exists. But also, like I think 0:09:30.120 --> 0:09:33.120 a lot of people like when this problem is presented 0:09:33.120 --> 0:09:34.680 to them, when they were like reminded of the fact 0:09:34.679 --> 0:09:37.080 that SMP has rules and it's thinking about waving them 0:09:37.080 --> 0:09:38.959 for SpaceX. A lot of people are like, no, those 0:09:39.000 --> 0:09:41.240 rules are good and we don't like this, but will 0:09:41.320 --> 0:09:45.200 they change their minds in two weeks if SpaceX. 0:09:44.679 --> 0:09:47.719 Doubles and I don't know how would look terrible for them. 0:09:47.760 --> 0:09:49.319 I feel like for who S and P? 0:09:50.280 --> 0:09:52.520 Yeah, the thing is like S and P. Actually, in 0:09:52.559 --> 0:09:54.079 some ways it's not that big a problem for S 0:09:54.160 --> 0:09:56.360 and P because S and P was never considering, like, 0:09:56.800 --> 0:09:59.920 we're going to put SpaceX in the index in two weeks, 0:10:00.000 --> 0:10:01.600 which would like a lot of the other index of it. 0:10:01.880 --> 0:10:04.040 And one reason they didn't do that is you just 0:10:04.120 --> 0:10:07.760 could not physically fit the S and P demand at 0:10:07.800 --> 0:10:10.080 this space because like the SMP devat is like any 0:10:10.280 --> 0:10:12.400 I don't know, I'm going to say the run number, 0:10:12.400 --> 0:10:15.920 it's probably like ten plus percent of yeah companies stocks, 0:10:16.280 --> 0:10:18.560 and so faceax is going public with like four percent 0:10:18.600 --> 0:10:20.720 of its stock, Like you can't you can't fit the SMP. 0:10:21.160 --> 0:10:22.800 So like yeah, you know, they were like, should we 0:10:22.840 --> 0:10:24.880 do this in six months or should we do it 0:10:24.880 --> 0:10:27.439 in three years? Right? Yeah, So whatever happens in the 0:10:27.520 --> 0:10:30.080 next six months wouldn't have mattered anyway what their decision was. 0:10:30.160 --> 0:10:31.840 I have to say, I think this is the most 0:10:32.160 --> 0:10:34.679 interesting outcome, the fact that you had all the other 0:10:34.679 --> 0:10:38.160 index providers make this decision, S and P standing firm. 0:10:38.440 --> 0:10:41.040 And part of the reason I'm so interested is because 0:10:41.080 --> 0:10:43.400 I have to imagine there's a whole bunch of active 0:10:43.400 --> 0:10:46.960 managers out there who are absolutely psyched that SpaceX isn't 0:10:47.000 --> 0:10:49.480 going into the S and P Oh yeah, it's just 0:10:49.520 --> 0:10:53.479 been impossible to beat that benchmark, and now you potentially 0:10:53.480 --> 0:10:54.120 have a chance to. 0:10:54.640 --> 0:10:57.320 Right. Also, you're not forced to make a decision. Yeah, 0:10:57.960 --> 0:10:59.800 in the same way, like if you're like a quote 0:10:59.840 --> 0:11:05.360 unk active manager whose job is to track the index 0:11:05.400 --> 0:11:07.800 and beat it a little bit, or it might be 0:11:08.000 --> 0:11:11.640 how some active managers see themselves, then putting SpaceX in 0:11:11.640 --> 0:11:14.079 the index made you like either have to own it 0:11:14.200 --> 0:11:17.360 or have to really confident that you that you're not 0:11:17.600 --> 0:11:20.920 like missing out on performance. Having SpaceX in the index 0:11:21.280 --> 0:11:24.160 means that if you do not own SpaceX for your career, 0:11:24.200 --> 0:11:27.079 it's equivalent to being short SpaceX. And like you might 0:11:27.120 --> 0:11:30.000 not like an Elon Musk company, but you you don't 0:11:30.040 --> 0:11:33.600 like Tesla, you wouldn't necessarily short it because it's terrifying, right, yeah, 0:11:33.600 --> 0:11:36.240 And like you know, the same dynamic exists if you're 0:11:36.320 --> 0:11:39.640 like a long only manager benchmark to the index, and 0:11:39.679 --> 0:11:42.240 it's like, if I don't buy SpaceX and then it doubles, 0:11:42.280 --> 0:11:44.800 I'm gonna look like an idiot. So you get the 0:11:44.800 --> 0:11:47.040 thodds that pullet a little bit, and if you like SpaceX, 0:11:47.080 --> 0:11:48.080 you can buy it and not perform. 0:11:48.360 --> 0:11:52.880 Something we were talking about last week was ESG considerations 0:11:53.000 --> 0:11:57.120 around SpaceX. The governance super hard here and UH. 0:11:58.480 --> 0:12:02.080 Is the worst, like Mark Levine that relation the like 0:12:02.080 --> 0:12:05.080 Comptroller of New York put out his statement being like, 0:12:05.679 --> 0:12:07.400 we're going to try to stop them. They can't be 0:12:07.440 --> 0:12:08.359 allowed to disempowers. 0:12:08.960 --> 0:12:11.000 They're going to try to stop SpaceX. They're going to 0:12:11.040 --> 0:12:13.080 try to stop Elon Musk. Who are they trying to stop? 0:12:13.240 --> 0:12:16.760 He's gonna write a strongly worded letter. Wow, the governance 0:12:16.800 --> 0:12:19.440 of SpaceX is such that you cannot complain about the 0:12:19.440 --> 0:12:21.880 governance of SpaceX. You can't like buy shares and like 0:12:21.960 --> 0:12:24.440 sue or like run a proxy fight, like those are 0:12:24.480 --> 0:12:27.480 all closed off to you. So there's nothing you can do. 0:12:27.600 --> 0:12:29.800 Either buy the shares and just trust Elon, or you 0:12:29.840 --> 0:12:33.440 don't buy the shares, or the third option is you 0:12:33.480 --> 0:12:37.280 write strongly worded letters saying they should really have different governance. 0:12:37.320 --> 0:12:40.599 But it doesn't matter. Yeah, the governance is bad. I 0:12:40.640 --> 0:12:41.400 don't know what they e. 0:12:41.920 --> 0:12:43.880 I don't really know. I don't know how to make 0:12:43.880 --> 0:12:44.200 head or. 0:12:44.960 --> 0:12:47.199 Sort of like it's like sort of orthogonal to all 0:12:47.280 --> 0:12:51.000 previous esg like environmental conversations. It's like, Wow, we're going 0:12:51.080 --> 0:12:54.200 to put a lot of data centers in space. Is 0:12:54.200 --> 0:12:55.280 that good for the environment? 0:12:55.360 --> 0:12:58.959 Do the polluting in space versus. 0:12:58.320 --> 0:13:00.720 A lot of solar energy his data centers? 0:13:00.840 --> 0:13:01.480 Yeah? 0:13:01.559 --> 0:13:04.000 Oh, I really like the Bloomberg story. He was yesterday 0:13:04.040 --> 0:13:09.160 maybe today? Whatever about like all the retail investors quoting them, 0:13:09.200 --> 0:13:12.280 saying it's like they tried to borrow money from a 0:13:12.320 --> 0:13:14.839 bank or for their sister to buy more SpaceX stock 0:13:15.440 --> 0:13:18.560 or uh so. One woman says there's no such thing 0:13:18.600 --> 0:13:20.160 as too much when it comes to investing in one 0:13:20.160 --> 0:13:23.240 of the most ambitious companies that ever existed, and another 0:13:23.280 --> 0:13:25.720 guy says, I'm willing to overpay for it just to 0:13:25.760 --> 0:13:28.040 say I'm part of the thing, which is like an 0:13:28.080 --> 0:13:30.280 amazing I don't think about it, Like, what what is 0:13:30.280 --> 0:13:33.640 a meme stock? Yeah, it's hard to get like like 0:13:33.760 --> 0:13:36.280 it's easy for like you to look at like game 0:13:36.360 --> 0:13:38.000 Stop and be like, oh, this is a company that 0:13:38.000 --> 0:13:40.840 trades above its fundamental value because retail investors like it. 0:13:40.880 --> 0:13:42.559 But like then you go on like you know, Reddit 0:13:42.640 --> 0:13:45.240 or whatever, and like people are making fundamental cases for 0:13:45.280 --> 0:13:49.120 game Stop. You can't necessarily like tell a meme stock 0:13:49.200 --> 0:13:51.360 by what people say about it, right, You have to 0:13:51.400 --> 0:13:54.160 sort of like be like this enthusiasm is like it's 0:13:54.240 --> 0:13:57.040 my aesthetic judgment that some of these stocks are meme stocks. 0:13:57.040 --> 0:13:59.839 But then this guy is like, I know, I'm a 0:14:00.040 --> 0:14:02.199 were paying I don't think this company is worth that much, 0:14:02.200 --> 0:14:03.400 but I want to be part of this thing. 0:14:03.480 --> 0:14:07.000 I want to participate in the culture. That's exactly think 0:14:07.000 --> 0:14:09.720 it's kind of beautiful. I like how candid he is 0:14:09.760 --> 0:14:12.520 and like true to his own intentions. He is right 0:14:12.559 --> 0:14:16.160 you know something I did think was interesting and we've 0:14:16.200 --> 0:14:19.440 probably have to move along. But I just think the 0:14:19.480 --> 0:14:24.120 conversations that we're having around SpaceX anthropic open AI. I 0:14:24.120 --> 0:14:26.080 think back to the conversations we were having on this 0:14:26.120 --> 0:14:29.640 podcast probably a year ago talking about how Private Forever 0:14:29.720 --> 0:14:33.200 is the new mantra and like the dearth of IPOs, 0:14:33.240 --> 0:14:35.520 and it is pretty amazing to think about where we 0:14:35.560 --> 0:14:38.120 are at this moment where SpaceX is about to go public. 0:14:38.560 --> 0:14:42.360 We have s ones in some form from anthropic and 0:14:42.440 --> 0:14:45.600 open AI. It's just like a total total one to eighty. 0:14:45.720 --> 0:14:48.600 It feels like in some ways to the conversations that 0:14:49.120 --> 0:14:51.200 kind of defines my twenty twenty five. 0:14:51.480 --> 0:14:53.120 Yeah, it's interesting. I was thinking I think a lot 0:14:53.120 --> 0:14:56.600 about like Uber was part of a wave of like 0:14:56.760 --> 0:14:59.320 very similar conversations where it was like I think I 0:14:59.360 --> 0:15:01.880 started writing private markets or the new public markets. Yeah, 0:15:01.880 --> 0:15:05.040 when Uber was private, and there's this like real sense 0:15:05.080 --> 0:15:07.400 of like companies could stay private forever, Like all the 0:15:07.440 --> 0:15:11.120 technology for like tender offers and like fundraising in private 0:15:11.160 --> 0:15:13.960 markets and all that stuff like was being developed, and 0:15:14.560 --> 0:15:17.880 there is this real sense that companies didn't want to 0:15:17.880 --> 0:15:21.400 go public anymore, and all the big companies that stay 0:15:21.440 --> 0:15:23.000 private and then like they all kind of went public. 0:15:23.040 --> 0:15:25.520 And yeah, there's another wave of it this year basically, 0:15:26.000 --> 0:15:28.120 And you know, some of it is just like all 0:15:28.160 --> 0:15:32.120 of those stories are always overblown and eventually every company, 0:15:32.160 --> 0:15:34.960 every you know, big tech setup is going to go public. 0:15:35.400 --> 0:15:37.080 But some of it is just like the very specific 0:15:37.120 --> 0:15:39.960 AI story of like you need a gajillion dollars of 0:15:40.440 --> 0:15:42.840 CAPEX for data centers, and so you have to tap 0:15:42.920 --> 0:15:45.880 every possible financing source and being a public company helps 0:15:45.880 --> 0:15:46.200 you do them. 0:15:46.400 --> 0:15:49.920 Yeah, it's hard to say how much you can extrapolated out. 0:15:50.000 --> 0:15:53.240 I did think to this point though, the language in 0:15:53.320 --> 0:15:56.480 Open AI, the company coming out and saying that they 0:15:56.520 --> 0:15:59.200 basically just want to give themselves the option to go public, 0:15:59.240 --> 0:16:01.960 that there is this pressure to go public and they 0:16:01.960 --> 0:16:05.040 aren't kind of an orace with anthropic But the company 0:16:05.080 --> 0:16:08.680 said that they haven't decided on timing for an IPO yet. 0:16:08.880 --> 0:16:10.480 It may be a while because there are things we 0:16:10.520 --> 0:16:13.120 want to do that are likely easier as a private company, 0:16:13.440 --> 0:16:15.480 but it's a complicated set of trade offs, and this 0:16:15.480 --> 0:16:17.560 gives us the option to go public sooner if that 0:16:17.680 --> 0:16:21.240 ends up being the best. Which was pretty candid. 0:16:21.520 --> 0:16:23.840 Yeah, people who complain about the governance of space acts 0:16:23.880 --> 0:16:27.360 like they're not wrong. It is a real see change 0:16:27.360 --> 0:16:30.960 from how public companies are run. And basically it's like 0:16:31.040 --> 0:16:33.120 Elon Musk can do whatever he wants. Is se we're 0:16:33.160 --> 0:16:35.880 verutting stock, he controls the board. You can't sue him. 0:16:36.160 --> 0:16:38.800 There's a real way to sue for pre chef duties. 0:16:39.000 --> 0:16:42.520 The company can do whatever they wants, and obviously that 0:16:42.640 --> 0:16:46.400 is informed by Elon Musk's own particular history with public 0:16:46.440 --> 0:16:49.840 market lawsuits, but I don't know. Open Eye is like 0:16:51.360 --> 0:16:52.920 there are things we can do as a private company 0:16:52.920 --> 0:16:57.440 that are easier for a private Like some of those 0:16:57.480 --> 0:17:01.520 things will be easier if you copy the SpaceX governance 0:17:01.560 --> 0:17:03.480 structure and public right some of them were not, like 0:17:03.520 --> 0:17:06.240 some of like not having disclosure is useful or whatever, 0:17:06.280 --> 0:17:10.480 but like SpaceX will not be as constrained by public 0:17:10.520 --> 0:17:14.040 company rule as any previous public company. And you know, 0:17:14.119 --> 0:17:17.240 I wonder if Open Aye and Anthropic, which are not 0:17:17.320 --> 0:17:22.000 run by Elon Musk but which have similar like idiosyncratic interests, 0:17:22.000 --> 0:17:23.840 like maybe they'll do the same thing and be like 0:17:24.040 --> 0:17:25.720 Cheryler's just gotta trust whatever. 0:17:25.480 --> 0:17:29.080 We say, take it or leave it. We'll see. I 0:17:29.119 --> 0:17:32.760 will be firmly on attorney leave when those companies go public. 0:17:32.840 --> 0:17:36.880 So yeah, and this podcast will have already come out 0:17:36.920 --> 0:17:57.879 when that SpaceX officially public. Sports. Yeah, one thing I 0:17:57.880 --> 0:17:59.840 have been saying for a while now is that like 0:18:00.080 --> 0:18:03.600 now there is federal sports gambling. Yeah, And like one 0:18:03.600 --> 0:18:06.080 thing I said is like there's like now like federally 0:18:06.119 --> 0:18:09.880 regulated sports gambling where Calshi runs a sports betting operation 0:18:10.200 --> 0:18:12.720 that is regulated by the CFTC and it says, because 0:18:12.720 --> 0:18:15.160 it's regulated by the CFTC, it can't be regulated by 0:18:15.400 --> 0:18:18.800 state gaming regulators, and it has mostly won that argument 0:18:18.840 --> 0:18:21.199 in court. Mostly courts have said, yep, that's right. The 0:18:21.200 --> 0:18:24.960 CFTC regulation preemp state regulation. And so because you're a 0:18:24.960 --> 0:18:28.919 CFTC regulated sports book, you don't have to follow state laws. So, 0:18:28.960 --> 0:18:31.600 for instance, you can offer bats in states that forbid 0:18:31.640 --> 0:18:35.480 sports gampling. You can offer sports gambling to eighteen year olds, 0:18:35.520 --> 0:18:38.520 whereas most states restricted to twenty one year olds. All 0:18:38.560 --> 0:18:41.359 these things, and one thing that I said is like, 0:18:41.400 --> 0:18:43.560 this is a weird situation for many reasons, but one 0:18:43.560 --> 0:18:46.280 reason is that the CFTC does not actually regulate sportscampling. 0:18:46.280 --> 0:18:49.720 There's no rules that the TC has ever published about 0:18:49.720 --> 0:18:54.080 sports betting until this week. Yeah, I published a big 0:18:54.119 --> 0:18:56.119 set of proposed rules. They're not finally out, they have 0:18:56.119 --> 0:18:58.520 to go through notice in common, but like they propose 0:18:58.640 --> 0:19:02.240 rules for how to federal sports betting, which I just 0:19:02.280 --> 0:19:04.879 found just as a concept are very funny. 0:19:05.440 --> 0:19:08.960 Yeah. I enjoyed your column on this, the CFTC confronting 0:19:09.640 --> 0:19:12.960 questions that no regulator has had to contemplate before. 0:19:13.119 --> 0:19:14.720 Like plenty of state gaming regulators. 0:19:14.800 --> 0:19:19.400 Yeah, for sure, not necessarily the markets regulators. No, and 0:19:19.480 --> 0:19:22.040 I do love you know when talking about pre collegiate sports, 0:19:23.040 --> 0:19:26.159 I went to high school, Like that's where my brain went. 0:19:26.240 --> 0:19:27.880 You just went straight to the little league. 0:19:28.240 --> 0:19:32.800 Yeah, I mean for that have children high school. I 0:19:32.840 --> 0:19:35.720 have one of them. Is it's an accomplished little leaguer. 0:19:35.760 --> 0:19:36.840 I thought you were going to say I have a 0:19:36.880 --> 0:19:38.520 side hustle, and it's no. 0:19:38.600 --> 0:19:40.440 But like I will tell you, Katie, I am like 0:19:40.480 --> 0:19:44.119