1
00:00:03,080 --> 00:00:17,759
Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio News. Welcome back to voter Nomics,

2
00:00:17,800 --> 00:00:21,479
Speaker 1: where politics and markets collide. This year, voters around the

3
00:00:21,480 --> 00:00:24,760
Speaker 1: world have had the ability to move markets, countries, and

4
00:00:24,800 --> 00:00:28,320
Speaker 1: economies like never before. Now the biggest of those votes

5
00:00:28,360 --> 00:00:31,080
Speaker 1: has happened, and we've just got a couple more episodes

6
00:00:31,160 --> 00:00:33,200
Speaker 1: left to help you make sense of it all. I'm

7
00:00:33,240 --> 00:00:34,680
Speaker 1: Stephanie Flanders.

8
00:00:34,680 --> 00:00:36,640
Speaker 2: And I'm adrim Woodrich Well Adrian.

9
00:00:36,760 --> 00:00:38,800
Speaker 1: As you know, I spent last week in Washington, DC,

10
00:00:38,920 --> 00:00:41,600
Speaker 1: which I think geographically was one of the less happy

11
00:00:41,600 --> 00:00:44,280
Speaker 1: places in the US. On the morning of November sixth,

12
00:00:44,400 --> 00:00:47,080
Speaker 1: I was looking it up. It's nearly ninety three percent

13
00:00:47,320 --> 00:00:52,280
Speaker 1: of Washington DC residents who cast their ballots chose Karmala Harris.

14
00:00:52,760 --> 00:00:55,200
Speaker 1: And when I left my hotel around six pm on

15
00:00:55,320 --> 00:00:58,319
Speaker 1: election night, as the ribbons and balloons were being put

16
00:00:58,400 --> 00:01:00,320
Speaker 1: up in the downstairs lobby of the hotel for a

17
00:01:00,400 --> 00:01:04,800
Speaker 1: victory celebration for Kamala Harris, donors and people were all

18
00:01:04,920 --> 00:01:08,440
Speaker 1: checking in very enthusiastically, and I have to say many

19
00:01:08,440 --> 00:01:10,720
Speaker 1: hours later, I think it was about three AM that

20
00:01:10,760 --> 00:01:13,280
Speaker 1: I came back to my hotel room. There wasn't a

21
00:01:13,319 --> 00:01:17,920
Speaker 1: lot of that going on. But in the past week,

22
00:01:18,400 --> 00:01:21,200
Speaker 1: the entire world has weighed in on how and why

23
00:01:21,240 --> 00:01:25,199
Speaker 1: Donald Trump won the election so decisively, including our own

24
00:01:25,280 --> 00:01:29,240
Speaker 1: Big Take podcast which went out on this feed. We're

25
00:01:29,240 --> 00:01:31,839
Speaker 1: going to be much more forward looking and focused primarily

26
00:01:31,880 --> 00:01:35,920
Speaker 1: on the economy and business in this episode. But first, Adrian,

27
00:01:36,120 --> 00:01:39,600
Speaker 1: I did have one more fun voting statistic which I

28
00:01:39,640 --> 00:01:43,679
Speaker 1: thought you'd like, though the margin of victory overall was

29
00:01:43,680 --> 00:01:46,679
Speaker 1: not that large. Donald Trump did win decisively, and he

30
00:01:46,720 --> 00:01:50,200
Speaker 1: won ninety percent of the counties in the US last week,

31
00:01:50,640 --> 00:01:53,840
Speaker 1: nine to zero, but the roughly ten percent of counties

32
00:01:53,840 --> 00:01:57,760
Speaker 1: that the Democrats won account for around seventy percent of

33
00:01:58,040 --> 00:02:00,560
Speaker 1: US GDP. So I think you know, one of the

34
00:02:00,560 --> 00:02:02,080
Speaker 1: things that that tells you is, you know, the big

35
00:02:02,120 --> 00:02:05,520
Speaker 1: fact of American politics these days, at least when you

36
00:02:05,560 --> 00:02:07,400
Speaker 1: look at last week, is that in terms of their

37
00:02:07,440 --> 00:02:10,160
Speaker 1: electoral coalition, the Democrats are now the party of the

38
00:02:10,200 --> 00:02:14,600
Speaker 1: economic winners and the Republicans, relatively speaking, other party of

39
00:02:14,680 --> 00:02:17,200
Speaker 1: the comparative economic losers.

40
00:02:17,320 --> 00:02:22,640
Speaker 2: Yeah. Absolutely, the Democrats do incredibly well among the educated elites.

41
00:02:22,680 --> 00:02:25,680
Speaker 2: And one of the biggest divides now in America is

42
00:02:25,720 --> 00:02:29,240
Speaker 2: not over class, not over race, but between the educated,

43
00:02:29,280 --> 00:02:32,880
Speaker 2: particularly the hyper educated and the rest of the population.

44
00:02:33,400 --> 00:02:36,000
Speaker 2: And I think that the Democrats' job is to try

45
00:02:36,040 --> 00:02:40,960
Speaker 2: and hold together a coalition of the elites with ethnic minorities. Essentially,

46
00:02:41,040 --> 00:02:43,280
Speaker 2: that's been what they've been trying to do, and this

47
00:02:43,400 --> 00:02:45,400
Speaker 2: time around they failed to do that. I wasn't as

48
00:02:45,440 --> 00:02:47,680
Speaker 2: glamorous as you during an election night. I was watching

49
00:02:47,840 --> 00:02:52,040
Speaker 2: the election from Clapham in London. But one of the

50
00:02:52,080 --> 00:02:54,920
Speaker 2: weird things about it, and I think it tells us

51
00:02:54,919 --> 00:02:57,800
Speaker 2: something about the ninety percent versus the ten percent, is

52
00:02:57,800 --> 00:03:02,200
Speaker 2: that the British commentariat was absolutely convinced that Kamalo is

53
00:03:02,200 --> 00:03:04,120
Speaker 2: going to win, and many of them, I'm a fred,

54
00:03:04,200 --> 00:03:07,320
Speaker 2: made complete fools of themselves. But that's because they visit

55
00:03:07,400 --> 00:03:10,680
Speaker 2: that ten percent and they don't visit the other ninety percent.

56
00:03:10,760 --> 00:03:13,560
Speaker 2: So there's a whole America out there, you know, the

57
00:03:13,680 --> 00:03:16,400
Speaker 2: right nation, as a couple of journalists once called it,

58
00:03:16,480 --> 00:03:20,040
Speaker 2: that wasn't really given a look in in party much

59
00:03:20,080 --> 00:03:22,360
Speaker 2: of the coverage of what's going on. And we need

60
00:03:22,400 --> 00:03:25,000
Speaker 2: to focus ourselves on the fly of a territory, not

61
00:03:25,240 --> 00:03:26,840
Speaker 2: to understand what's going on in America.

62
00:03:27,080 --> 00:03:30,919
Speaker 1: The other big fact about the economy, which Donald Trump

63
00:03:30,919 --> 00:03:34,200
Speaker 1: has promised to fix and has complained about so vciferously

64
00:03:34,240 --> 00:03:37,200
Speaker 1: on the campaign. Is that the US is doing pretty well.

65
00:03:37,520 --> 00:03:39,440
Speaker 1: And so I think one of the things that we'll

66
00:03:39,560 --> 00:03:42,480
Speaker 1: want to get into with our guests is, you know,

67
00:03:42,520 --> 00:03:45,040
Speaker 1: whether and how he might be able to break that

68
00:03:45,080 --> 00:03:46,880
Speaker 1: economy and what it means for those voters.

69
00:03:47,400 --> 00:03:49,360
Speaker 2: Well, there's two questions really. One is whether he can

70
00:03:49,360 --> 00:03:51,520
Speaker 2: break that economy, but the other is whether he can

71
00:03:51,560 --> 00:03:54,280
Speaker 2: take credit for that economy. There's nothing more sensible for

72
00:03:54,320 --> 00:03:56,960
Speaker 2: a politician than to than to find a victory parade

73
00:03:56,960 --> 00:03:58,680
Speaker 2: and put yourself at the front of this, and he

74
00:03:58,760 --> 00:04:01,200
Speaker 2: may be doing that over the US economy. It's not

75
00:04:01,280 --> 00:04:05,120
Speaker 2: at all at bad time to be coming in as president.

76
00:04:05,160 --> 00:04:08,440
Speaker 2: Whatever the longer term implications of his policies.

77
00:04:08,200 --> 00:04:10,560
Speaker 1: Let's get into some of that now. So Trump two

78
00:04:10,560 --> 00:04:13,360
Speaker 1: point zero might mean for the economy, for interest rates,

79
00:04:13,800 --> 00:04:16,880
Speaker 1: for the Federal Reserve. More broadly, I guess for the

80
00:04:16,920 --> 00:04:19,520
Speaker 1: future of business and with us to talk about some

81
00:04:19,560 --> 00:04:22,360
Speaker 1: of that. Two friends of the Pod, John Author's senior

82
00:04:22,520 --> 00:04:26,760
Speaker 1: editor for Markets and Bloomberg opinion columnist as well as

83
00:04:27,000 --> 00:04:30,920
Speaker 1: author of The Fearful Rise of Markets, and Tim O'Bryant,

84
00:04:31,160 --> 00:04:34,000
Speaker 1: head of Bloomberg opinion and author of Trump Nation, The

85
00:04:34,200 --> 00:04:39,560
Speaker 1: Art of Being the Donald. It's an embarrassment of riches.

86
00:04:39,560 --> 00:04:41,000
Speaker 1: We've not managed to have both of you at the

87
00:04:41,000 --> 00:04:45,520
Speaker 1: same time before, but we have had you multiple times. John,

88
00:04:45,880 --> 00:04:48,880
Speaker 1: Why don't we start with the Federal Reserve. They had

89
00:04:48,880 --> 00:04:52,680
Speaker 1: a meeting where they were meeting the day after the election.

90
00:04:52,880 --> 00:04:55,760
Speaker 1: The chairman had a press conference that was after a

91
00:04:55,880 --> 00:05:01,240
Speaker 1: massive market rally that we'd seen, which is largely still continuing,

92
00:05:01,279 --> 00:05:06,680
Speaker 1: and not just in Tesla. Investors seem to think Trump

93
00:05:06,760 --> 00:05:09,240
Speaker 1: two point zero will be fabulous for US companies and

94
00:05:09,400 --> 00:05:11,560
Speaker 1: not so bad for inflation. And if you look at

95
00:05:11,600 --> 00:05:13,920
Speaker 1: the cost of borrowing currently for the government, are they right?

96
00:05:14,680 --> 00:05:19,680
Speaker 3: That is absolutely open for question at this point. This

97
00:05:19,880 --> 00:05:24,040
Speaker 3: was the landmine that blew up the Biden presidency. What

98
00:05:24,120 --> 00:05:27,080
Speaker 3: he wanted to do was deliver for exactly the people

99
00:05:27,440 --> 00:05:30,160
Speaker 3: who feel most passionately that he didn't deliver for them.

100
00:05:30,200 --> 00:05:33,119
Speaker 3: And the main reason that the various things he tried

101
00:05:33,160 --> 00:05:36,880
Speaker 3: to do didn't work was because inflation took off. And

102
00:05:37,560 --> 00:05:41,800
Speaker 3: there is a risk that Trump two point zero might

103
00:05:42,680 --> 00:05:45,520
Speaker 3: just fall into the same trap. If you do have

104
00:05:45,600 --> 00:05:49,320
Speaker 3: big tax cuts and big tariffs, you're playing with fire.

105
00:05:49,440 --> 00:05:53,040
Speaker 3: If your mandate is coming from people who are absolutely

106
00:05:53,120 --> 00:05:56,400
Speaker 3: furious that your predecessor let inflation get out of control

107
00:05:56,839 --> 00:06:01,880
Speaker 3: when inflation isn't absolutely totally unambiguous under control. Now that said,

108
00:06:01,920 --> 00:06:05,279
Speaker 3: he's got a lot of adults in the room with

109
00:06:05,440 --> 00:06:08,240
Speaker 3: him this time, and they are one hundred percent aware

110
00:06:08,279 --> 00:06:11,280
Speaker 3: that that is the issue. And so obviously there are

111
00:06:11,279 --> 00:06:14,039
Speaker 3: going to be some fascinating polls when they decide exactly

112
00:06:14,080 --> 00:06:17,680
Speaker 3: how high they're going to hit tariffs, how aggressively they're

113
00:06:17,720 --> 00:06:20,440
Speaker 3: going to try to cut taxes, and the way the

114
00:06:20,480 --> 00:06:23,320
Speaker 3: market will move and the way inflation moves over the

115
00:06:23,360 --> 00:06:27,599
Speaker 3: next few months will inform that in terms of the FED,

116
00:06:27,839 --> 00:06:33,080
Speaker 3: it could be the final moment in which the economic

117
00:06:33,320 --> 00:06:36,760
Speaker 3: order of reassociate with Paul Volka and Margaret Thatcher and

118
00:06:36,920 --> 00:06:43,200
Speaker 3: Order Egan finally absolutely disappears. Post Bretton Woods, the replacement

119
00:06:43,240 --> 00:06:47,760
Speaker 3: for the gold standard was basically an independent federal Reserve

120
00:06:48,040 --> 00:06:51,280
Speaker 3: who you could trust, run by somebody like Paul Volka,

121
00:06:51,560 --> 00:06:55,240
Speaker 3: and for some decade that was a very adequate replacement

122
00:06:55,240 --> 00:06:58,800
Speaker 3: for the gold standard. There's any number of reasons to

123
00:06:58,920 --> 00:07:02,560
Speaker 3: question whether the current version of the FED and its

124
00:07:02,600 --> 00:07:06,840
Speaker 3: independence is working. Powell's term comes up in he has

125
00:07:06,839 --> 00:07:12,280
Speaker 3: to leave in May twenty six. That gives eighteen months

126
00:07:12,400 --> 00:07:16,120
Speaker 3: to have a very interesting discussion about exactly how much

127
00:07:17,720 --> 00:07:23,240
Speaker 3: Trump and his administration wants to limit and change FED independence.

128
00:07:23,800 --> 00:07:26,760
Speaker 3: FED is a very unpopular organization with exactly the people

129
00:07:26,760 --> 00:07:30,280
Speaker 3: who have just voted for Trump. Markets would be very,

130
00:07:31,000 --> 00:07:37,200
Speaker 3: very nervous about a reduction in FED independence that left

131
00:07:37,240 --> 00:07:40,800
Speaker 3: somebody like Donald Trump having the last interest rangth that

132
00:07:40,840 --> 00:07:41,840
Speaker 3: would be scared.

133
00:07:42,320 --> 00:07:45,360
Speaker 1: After having what you might call a predictable response on

134
00:07:45,400 --> 00:07:47,800
Speaker 1: his election win. You know, you had the stock market

135
00:07:47,840 --> 00:07:50,680
Speaker 1: go up, but actually but the bond yields going up,

136
00:07:50,800 --> 00:07:54,560
Speaker 1: people concerned about arising interest rates, and then I guess

137
00:07:54,600 --> 00:07:58,080
Speaker 1: the way that moderated and where we've sort of ended up,

138
00:07:58,640 --> 00:08:01,320
Speaker 1: and sort of more generally, the mood around it, you know,

139
00:08:01,320 --> 00:08:04,080
Speaker 1: given how much we've talked about the risk of to

140
00:08:04,160 --> 00:08:07,040
Speaker 1: FED independence in the run up to this election, the

141
00:08:07,160 --> 00:08:09,480
Speaker 1: risk of higher inflation coming out of taris. So I

142
00:08:09,520 --> 00:08:13,240
Speaker 1: was just relatively surprised that people seem to be betting

143
00:08:13,280 --> 00:08:17,000
Speaker 1: on those grown ups in the room, though we aresured

144
00:08:17,040 --> 00:08:18,480
Speaker 1: that there aren't going to be as many as them

145
00:08:18,480 --> 00:08:23,640
Speaker 1: were last time, that they will somehow be moderating Donald

146
00:08:23,680 --> 00:08:26,000
Speaker 1: Trump's behavior. I mean, maybe, Tim, I'll bring you in

147
00:08:26,040 --> 00:08:28,920
Speaker 1: because people who have spent a long time looking at

148
00:08:28,920 --> 00:08:31,680
Speaker 1: Donald Trump, and you among them, have always said to me, well,

149
00:08:31,680 --> 00:08:34,480
Speaker 1: it depends on whether he really cares, because anything he

150
00:08:34,480 --> 00:08:36,840
Speaker 1: doesn't really care about, he's quite happy to just change

151
00:08:36,880 --> 00:08:38,760
Speaker 1: his view. Is this something that he's quite happy to

152
00:08:38,840 --> 00:08:40,680
Speaker 1: change his view on, or does he really care about

153
00:08:40,679 --> 00:08:41,040
Speaker 1: the FED?

154
00:08:41,880 --> 00:08:43,880
Speaker 4: I think he'd be happy to change his view on

155
00:08:43,920 --> 00:08:46,120
Speaker 4: the FED. I don't think he's going to go to

156
00:08:46,200 --> 00:08:48,920
Speaker 4: war over FED independence. He'll go to war over immigration.

157
00:08:49,440 --> 00:08:53,720
Speaker 4: I think he's deadly serious about deporting millions of migrants

158
00:08:53,720 --> 00:08:56,640
Speaker 4: if he can, and I think he hasn't thought through

159
00:08:56,679 --> 00:08:59,000
Speaker 4: the consequences of that. In addition to the list that

160
00:08:59,080 --> 00:09:02,280
Speaker 4: John had of slationary pressures on the US economy during

161
00:09:02,280 --> 00:09:06,439
Speaker 4: Trump two point zero, should they drive you know, eleven

162
00:09:06,480 --> 00:09:10,520
Speaker 4: million undocumented immigrants out of the United States. It's going

163
00:09:10,559 --> 00:09:15,520
Speaker 4: to have a devastating impact on small businesses, medium sized businesses,

164
00:09:16,080 --> 00:09:18,840
Speaker 4: and it'll be very much like what happened in the

165
00:09:18,880 --> 00:09:23,400
Speaker 4: restaurants and hotels in England after Brexit came crashing down

166
00:09:23,640 --> 00:09:27,120
Speaker 4: on the British economy. The US needs a lot of

167
00:09:27,120 --> 00:09:30,520
Speaker 4: those workers and if they're not around, it's going to

168
00:09:30,520 --> 00:09:34,080
Speaker 4: be inflationary. It's going to raise inflationary pressures along with

169
00:09:34,360 --> 00:09:37,960
Speaker 4: if tariffs are in play, if the debt piper is

170
00:09:38,000 --> 00:09:40,360
Speaker 4: coming to, the receipts on the US debt are coming due.

171
00:09:40,760 --> 00:09:43,560
Speaker 4: And I do think he will just see that through.

172
00:09:43,640 --> 00:09:46,520
Speaker 4: It's so core to what his political message was. Among

173
00:09:46,600 --> 00:09:50,920
Speaker 4: his earliest cabinet appointments are immigration warriors. You know, I'm

174
00:09:50,920 --> 00:09:52,760
Speaker 4: glad that we're talking about the economy because I think

175
00:09:52,760 --> 00:09:57,280
Speaker 4: it explains the electoral forces that are mystifying people more

176
00:09:57,320 --> 00:09:59,920
Speaker 4: than anything else. I think the big force that is

177
00:10:00,080 --> 00:10:02,959
Speaker 4: landed on both of these parties is that the white

178
00:10:03,240 --> 00:10:06,880
Speaker 4: middle class working coalition that got built during the New

179
00:10:06,880 --> 00:10:09,440
Speaker 4: Deal in the nineteen thirties and lasted until Ronald Reagan

180
00:10:09,640 --> 00:10:12,920
Speaker 4: has been falling apart of the seams because the economy changed,

181
00:10:13,160 --> 00:10:14,600
Speaker 4: you know, in the same way that the US went

182
00:10:14,600 --> 00:10:19,240
Speaker 4: through upheaples in the eighteen nineties when industrialization overran the

183
00:10:19,240 --> 00:10:21,960
Speaker 4: agrarian economy. We are now in the midst of the

184
00:10:22,000 --> 00:10:26,720
Speaker 4: service and technology economies overrunning the industrial economy, and workers

185
00:10:26,760 --> 00:10:31,240
Speaker 4: are getting displaced en moss and real wages and a

186
00:10:31,280 --> 00:10:35,520
Speaker 4: living wage, not just a low ball kind of subsistence wage,

187
00:10:35,640 --> 00:10:37,680
Speaker 4: but living wages of the United States are not where

188
00:10:37,679 --> 00:10:40,880
Speaker 4: they should be for huge swaths of the American population.

189
00:10:41,480 --> 00:10:43,880
Speaker 4: And it's been that way and it's been degrading that

190
00:10:43,920 --> 00:10:46,080
Speaker 4: way since the nineteen eighties, and those voters have been

191
00:10:46,080 --> 00:10:49,040
Speaker 4: looking for a home, and essentially both the Republicans and

192
00:10:49,080 --> 00:10:52,400
Speaker 4: the Democrats have ignored them. And I think you run

193
00:10:52,440 --> 00:10:55,400
Speaker 4: into the two thousand and eight financial crisis and this

194
00:10:55,600 --> 00:10:59,320
Speaker 4: just accelerates, and Donald Trump is an outcome and an

195
00:10:59,400 --> 00:11:01,040
Speaker 4: acceleerate of these things.

196
00:11:01,160 --> 00:11:03,120
Speaker 2: Wait a minute, Tim, I don't want to be a

197
00:11:03,120 --> 00:11:05,800
Speaker 2: spokesman for Trump, but I would say that they would

198
00:11:05,840 --> 00:11:08,560
Speaker 2: claim that they've tried to service those people by doing

199
00:11:08,600 --> 00:11:12,480
Speaker 2: two things that Trump, yes, one is addressing the problem

200
00:11:12,559 --> 00:11:16,400
Speaker 2: of outsourcing, and the other is addressing the problem of immigration,

201
00:11:16,520 --> 00:11:19,360
Speaker 2: both of which they would say with the downward pressure

202
00:11:19,360 --> 00:11:23,480
Speaker 2: on the earnings of non educated people not entirely wrongly.

203
00:11:24,160 --> 00:11:28,360
Speaker 4: The real pressure on uneducated people is their wages, and

204
00:11:28,480 --> 00:11:32,000
Speaker 4: immigration plays a role in that in driving wages down.

205
00:11:31,880 --> 00:11:34,079
Speaker 2: And so does outsturcing player role in that.

206
00:11:34,320 --> 00:11:37,000
Speaker 4: You know, it drives wages down, and it creates competition

207
00:11:37,040 --> 00:11:41,079
Speaker 4: in the workplace. I don't think that Trump administration has

208
00:11:41,160 --> 00:11:44,319
Speaker 4: offered authentic solutions for that population, and they're about to

209
00:11:44,400 --> 00:11:47,760
Speaker 4: find that out. I don't think that Democrats have come

210
00:11:47,840 --> 00:11:51,800
Speaker 4: up with long term solutions, and so I think you

211
00:11:51,840 --> 00:11:55,200
Speaker 4: have this very malleable voting block that moves from party

212
00:11:55,240 --> 00:11:58,160
Speaker 4: to party because they're desperate. But people who are complaining

213
00:11:58,160 --> 00:12:02,000
Speaker 4: about inflation weren't just complaining about bread and gas prices.

214
00:12:02,559 --> 00:12:06,600
Speaker 4: It was really an affordability problem. That population of people

215
00:12:06,880 --> 00:12:10,400
Speaker 4: can't afford college, that can't afford homes, that can't afford

216
00:12:10,440 --> 00:12:15,120
Speaker 4: sending funding their own retirement, and they just aren't getting

217
00:12:15,160 --> 00:12:18,120
Speaker 4: their piece of the American dream, and justifiably they're angry

218
00:12:18,120 --> 00:12:20,400
Speaker 4: about it, and they take it out on both parties

219
00:12:21,240 --> 00:12:24,720
Speaker 4: and Trump was the beneficiary of it this time. But

220
00:12:25,440 --> 00:12:28,320
Speaker 4: it's very interesting if you look at some split ballots

221
00:12:28,360 --> 00:12:31,440
Speaker 4: all across the recent electoral map, where people voted for

222
00:12:31,640 --> 00:12:36,080
Speaker 4: Trump at the top of the ticket and Democrats down ballot. AOC,

223
00:12:36,440 --> 00:12:39,640
Speaker 4: a prominent left member of the Democratic Party, posted a

224
00:12:39,640 --> 00:12:42,800
Speaker 4: little chart to Instagram noting that in her own district,

225
00:12:43,080 --> 00:12:46,040
Speaker 4: the voters who voted her into office as a progressive

226
00:12:46,080 --> 00:12:50,800
Speaker 4: Democrat also voted for Donald Trump as president, and the

227
00:12:50,880 --> 00:12:53,560
Speaker 4: common thread in those voters who voted for both of

228
00:12:53,600 --> 00:12:58,920
Speaker 4: them was anti institutionalism. They feel like American institutions aren't

229
00:12:59,080 --> 00:13:02,000
Speaker 4: servicing their needs and meeting their needs quite rightly. So,

230
00:13:02,360 --> 00:13:05,559
Speaker 4: and that's the challenge the US faces going forward.

231
00:13:05,600 --> 00:13:07,800
Speaker 1: I think, I guess one question is whether the economy

232
00:13:07,840 --> 00:13:10,680
Speaker 1: that he's inherited was already delivering a bit more for

233
00:13:10,720 --> 00:13:16,239
Speaker 1: those people, and whether it will continue to deliver despite

234
00:13:16,960 --> 00:13:21,680
Speaker 1: or potentially with some help from Donald Trump's policies. You know,

235
00:13:21,679 --> 00:13:24,520
Speaker 1: we've tended to think that he should just not wreck

236
00:13:24,600 --> 00:13:28,120
Speaker 1: what he's inherited with a lot of uncertainty and a

237
00:13:28,120 --> 00:13:30,880
Speaker 1: lot of and the tariffs and everything else. But you know,

238
00:13:30,920 --> 00:13:34,760
Speaker 1: some of his policies could potentially help parts of America

239
00:13:34,800 --> 00:13:37,920
Speaker 1: if it brings business back, manufacturing back to different parts

240
00:13:37,920 --> 00:13:40,240
Speaker 1: of America. Do you see any scope for that.

241
00:13:40,480 --> 00:13:44,800
Speaker 2: Because I'm really struck by the comparison with the nineteen twenties,

242
00:13:45,240 --> 00:13:47,640
Speaker 2: whereby you had a you know, you had a policy

243
00:13:47,679 --> 00:13:51,119
Speaker 2: of tariffs, and you had a policy of restricting immigration

244
00:13:51,880 --> 00:13:56,120
Speaker 2: from you know, nineteen twenty four onwards, and you've got

245
00:13:56,160 --> 00:13:59,880
Speaker 2: an enormous economic boom in the short term and one

246
00:14:00,080 --> 00:14:02,760
Speaker 2: that benefited big, big, big junction of the population. Of course,

247
00:14:02,800 --> 00:14:05,120
Speaker 2: in the long term it was a disaster, but in

248
00:14:05,160 --> 00:14:09,360
Speaker 2: the shorter term it led to higher living standards and

249
00:14:09,520 --> 00:14:12,600
Speaker 2: the biggest productivity growth in American history. I'm just not

250
00:14:12,880 --> 00:14:15,839
Speaker 2: certain that in the shorter term that this will be

251
00:14:15,880 --> 00:14:16,680
Speaker 2: such a disaster.

252
00:14:17,120 --> 00:14:19,000
Speaker 3: That's not my reading of what's happened in the nineteen

253
00:14:19,000 --> 00:14:22,520
Speaker 3: twenties and nineteen thirties. Protectionism starts in a much much

254
00:14:22,560 --> 00:14:26,200
Speaker 3: bigger way after the Wall Street Crash, which is an

255
00:14:26,680 --> 00:14:30,960
Speaker 3: perfect example of how allowing free market capitalism to go

256
00:14:31,000 --> 00:14:34,720
Speaker 3: a little too far with too little regulation can create dangers.

257
00:14:34,920 --> 00:14:37,080
Speaker 3: I think, if you wanted to, if there is one

258
00:14:37,160 --> 00:14:42,920
Speaker 3: figure that we're seeing to that Trump might be trying

259
00:14:42,960 --> 00:14:46,200
Speaker 3: to air, this goes back to very deep history. It's

260
00:14:46,280 --> 00:14:50,320
Speaker 3: Louis the fourteenth Minister Colbert, who is regarded as the

261
00:14:50,360 --> 00:14:54,600
Speaker 3: inventor of mechantilism, which is a sort of precursor of capitalism,

262
00:14:54,640 --> 00:14:56,760
Speaker 3: the idea of trade as much as you can with

263
00:14:56,840 --> 00:15:02,280
Speaker 3: your colonies and don't buy any stuff. It's about maximizing

264
00:15:02,400 --> 00:15:05,520
Speaker 3: trade balance as the way to grow an economy, and

265
00:15:05,720 --> 00:15:08,720
Speaker 3: that isn't a ridiculous idea. It didn't go too badly

266
00:15:08,760 --> 00:15:11,040
Speaker 3: for Louis the fourteenth for a long period of time.

267
00:15:11,080 --> 00:15:14,800
Speaker 3: Although I'm not a great expert, I think the way

268
00:15:14,840 --> 00:15:17,880
Speaker 3: Trump might make this really work. And this comes out

269
00:15:17,880 --> 00:15:21,000
Speaker 3: from something he said to John Mecklelthwaite when he was

270
00:15:21,200 --> 00:15:23,680
Speaker 3: interviewed at the Economic Club. He said that there will

271
00:15:23,720 --> 00:15:27,560
Speaker 3: be no tariffs at all if you build your stuff

272
00:15:27,680 --> 00:15:31,600
Speaker 3: in America. I think what he's hoping for, in an

273
00:15:31,680 --> 00:15:35,640
Speaker 3: incorrect way, is a grand deal where he tells people

274
00:15:36,360 --> 00:15:39,120
Speaker 3: this is not unlike what happens under Thatcher in Britain

275
00:15:39,200 --> 00:15:42,520
Speaker 3: with Asian carmakers coming to Britain once the unions had

276
00:15:42,560 --> 00:15:46,400
Speaker 3: been broken in Britain. You can come here and I

277
00:15:46,400 --> 00:15:48,600
Speaker 3: don't mind you taking some of the profits, providing you

278
00:15:48,640 --> 00:15:52,840
Speaker 3: employ Americans to do it. And that's a very difficult

279
00:15:52,880 --> 00:15:55,960
Speaker 3: deal to pull off, but that seems to be what

280
00:15:56,040 --> 00:15:58,560
Speaker 3: he's interesting. He's very angry about near shoring. I used

281
00:15:58,560 --> 00:16:01,920
Speaker 3: to cover Mexico. The Mexicans horrified because at one point

282
00:16:02,080 --> 00:16:05,480
Speaker 3: things look great for Mexico. And it seems that he's

283
00:16:05,480 --> 00:16:07,360
Speaker 3: going to try very hard. He's going to try very

284
00:16:07,360 --> 00:16:11,320
Speaker 3: hard not to allow foreign producers to get away with

285
00:16:11,440 --> 00:16:14,240
Speaker 3: moving from China to Mexico. He wants to make sure

286
00:16:14,280 --> 00:16:17,920
Speaker 3: they come to the States. There's definitely a way that

287
00:16:17,960 --> 00:16:22,920
Speaker 3: could work out spectacularly well for rebuilding certain parts of

288
00:16:22,960 --> 00:16:27,520
Speaker 3: American industry that have been in decline. It's hazardous and

289
00:16:27,600 --> 00:16:30,400
Speaker 3: it's risky, but there certainly is a logic to it.

290
00:16:30,440 --> 00:16:35,320
Speaker 3: If we don't like globalization, if globalization has created inequality

291
00:16:35,360 --> 00:16:39,720
Speaker 3: at a level that democracies continue to show they can't tolerate,

292
00:16:39,960 --> 00:16:42,840
Speaker 3: then what are you going to do instead? Something like

293
00:16:42,880 --> 00:16:50,360
Speaker 3: a coherent Colbertise merchantilism logically might be one of the

294
00:16:50,400 --> 00:16:52,720
Speaker 3: things that's relatively high on the list to try next.

295
00:16:52,840 --> 00:16:55,560
Speaker 1: I mean, I think you're right, John, and it did

296
00:16:55,640 --> 00:16:58,760
Speaker 1: come through in that interview that he did with the

297
00:16:59,080 --> 00:17:03,040
Speaker 1: editor in chief. It's an entirely consistent, sort of internally

298
00:17:03,080 --> 00:17:06,240
Speaker 1: coherent view of America. First and the use of tariffs,

299
00:17:06,240 --> 00:17:09,360
Speaker 1: and he also was talking about making money from some tariffs,

300
00:17:09,400 --> 00:17:11,280
Speaker 1: you know, low level of tariffs on lots of goods,

301
00:17:11,320 --> 00:17:13,840
Speaker 1: just as a sort of cash machine, and then as

302
00:17:13,840 --> 00:17:16,560
Speaker 1: you say, other high levels of tariffs if you really

303
00:17:16,600 --> 00:17:18,760
Speaker 1: want to move production at home and those two things.

304
00:17:18,840 --> 00:17:21,080
Speaker 1: You can't use the same tariff to achieve both those things,

305
00:17:21,119 --> 00:17:24,240
Speaker 1: but you can certainly do different things in different markets.

306
00:17:24,880 --> 00:17:27,720
Speaker 1: The bet that the financial markets. Investors seem to be

307
00:17:27,800 --> 00:17:31,200
Speaker 1: making comparisons with twenty eight A side. I mean, maybe

308
00:17:31,200 --> 00:17:34,280
Speaker 1: we're just all heading for a fall. Is that the

309
00:17:34,320 --> 00:17:38,240
Speaker 1: sort of deregulation, the let rip, the Elon Musk being

310
00:17:38,920 --> 00:17:46,960
Speaker 1: in a high position pro business approach transactionalism will on

311
00:17:47,119 --> 00:17:51,080
Speaker 1: balance be good for American capitalism, Whereas I guess the

312
00:17:51,119 --> 00:17:53,480
Speaker 1: other the argument against would be, you know what, you

313
00:17:53,520 --> 00:17:56,480
Speaker 1: can have too much transactionalism. If you treat everything as

314
00:17:56,480 --> 00:18:00,760
Speaker 1: a transaction with individual businesses, You're creating a lot of uncertainty.

315
00:18:00,800 --> 00:18:02,720
Speaker 1: You're undermining the rule of law because you don't have

316
00:18:02,800 --> 00:18:04,760
Speaker 1: any kind of level playing field. It's just who can

317
00:18:04,840 --> 00:18:06,760
Speaker 1: pick up the phone to Donald Trump? And I just

318
00:18:06,760 --> 00:18:08,679
Speaker 1: wanted the investor's bet at the moment seems to be

319
00:18:08,720 --> 00:18:10,720
Speaker 1: that's not going to be bad for Wall Street to

320
00:18:10,760 --> 00:18:14,560
Speaker 1: have that kind of transactionalism all the way down. Ultimately,

321
00:18:14,680 --> 00:18:16,040
Speaker 1: who's going to pay a price for that?

322
00:18:16,160 --> 00:18:19,840
Speaker 4: Do you think taxpayers? If they're you know, ultimately it'll

323
00:18:19,880 --> 00:18:22,520
Speaker 4: be taxpayers if a bailout is needed. I think that's

324
00:18:22,600 --> 00:18:24,919
Speaker 4: what happened, you know, nineteen twenty nine we ended up

325
00:18:24,960 --> 00:18:28,200
Speaker 4: having to have a World war to resolve the economic

326
00:18:28,240 --> 00:18:33,680
Speaker 4: dislocations that the nineteen twenties produced. I hope and don't

327
00:18:33,680 --> 00:18:36,320
Speaker 4: think it's going to come to that. But you know,

328
00:18:36,400 --> 00:18:39,560
Speaker 4: Bob Burgess, some Bloomberg opinion wrote a very instructive or

329
00:18:39,720 --> 00:18:42,760
Speaker 4: column about you can look at the equity markets as

330
00:18:42,800 --> 00:18:45,480
Speaker 4: one barometer, but if you look at what's happening to

331
00:18:45,560 --> 00:18:48,760
Speaker 4: the dollar, and what's happening in debt markets, and what's

332
00:18:48,760 --> 00:18:51,720
Speaker 4: happening with credit derivatives, you know, the dollar's going in

333
00:18:51,760 --> 00:18:54,359
Speaker 4: the exact opposite direction that Trump's wanted it to go in.

334
00:18:54,440 --> 00:18:58,720
Speaker 4: It's strengthening. He's wanted it to weaken in order to

335
00:18:58,760 --> 00:19:03,200
Speaker 4: make US exporters more or competitive overseas. However, much Wall

336
00:19:03,200 --> 00:19:05,840
Speaker 4: Street wanted Donald Trump in office, they now have to

337
00:19:05,840 --> 00:19:09,119
Speaker 4: live with him, and he is a mess of contradictions

338
00:19:09,600 --> 00:19:14,320
Speaker 4: with no really clear philosophic grounding other than saber rattling

339
00:19:14,440 --> 00:19:17,880
Speaker 4: for the sake of saber rattling. And in financial markets,

340
00:19:17,960 --> 00:19:21,240
Speaker 4: it's like nitroglycerine. And sometimes that can be useful to

341
00:19:21,240 --> 00:19:23,760
Speaker 4: blow through walls when you want to do new construction,

342
00:19:24,080 --> 00:19:25,919
Speaker 4: and sometimes it can just blow up in your hands.

343
00:19:26,440 --> 00:19:28,760
Speaker 4: And I think we don't know which way this will go,

344
00:19:29,560 --> 00:19:32,000
Speaker 4: but I think it also depends on who he brings

345
00:19:32,000 --> 00:19:34,560
Speaker 4: into the administration. Right, there's some big jobs that aren't filled.

346
00:19:34,640 --> 00:19:38,680
Speaker 4: Ja Clayton has been mentioned as a possible SEC chair

347
00:19:39,600 --> 00:19:41,520
Speaker 4: that would I think feel a bit like an adult

348
00:19:41,560 --> 00:19:43,159
Speaker 4: in the room in a way that people may not

349
00:19:43,240 --> 00:19:43,879
Speaker 4: have expected.

350
00:19:44,200 --> 00:19:45,240
Speaker 1: Remind us who that is.

351
00:19:45,840 --> 00:19:51,480
Speaker 4: He's a Wall Streeter with some regulatory experience in Washington

352
00:19:51,520 --> 00:19:54,560
Speaker 4: in the securities markets. He's looking to Wall Street for

353
00:19:54,640 --> 00:19:57,520
Speaker 4: the Treasury Department as well. And I don't think anybody

354
00:19:57,600 --> 00:20:01,720
Speaker 4: is interested in just creating a toxic stew of deregulation

355
00:20:02,240 --> 00:20:08,479
Speaker 4: and mismatched financial policies that end up becoming explosive. But

356
00:20:08,680 --> 00:20:11,720
Speaker 4: you never know, because the difference in Trump two point

357
00:20:11,800 --> 00:20:14,280
Speaker 4: zero from Trump one point zero is he is on

358
00:20:14,359 --> 00:20:17,359
Speaker 4: a very profound revenge tour this time, and he's got

359
00:20:17,400 --> 00:20:20,520
Speaker 4: a long enemies list, and so there's just going to

360
00:20:20,560 --> 00:20:25,959
Speaker 4: be a lot of non rational, non capitalistic approaches the

361
00:20:26,000 --> 00:20:28,160
Speaker 4: problem solving that will surprise people.

362
00:20:28,200 --> 00:20:31,000
Speaker 2: I think I think we should focus a little bit

363
00:20:31,000 --> 00:20:34,280
Speaker 2: more on the non capitalistic side as well, because I

364
00:20:34,280 --> 00:20:36,560
Speaker 2: think if you go back to the nineteen nineties, you

365
00:20:36,640 --> 00:20:42,560
Speaker 2: had two parties that were both absolutely pro business in

366
00:20:42,680 --> 00:20:46,359
Speaker 2: their hearts. Now I think you have two parties in

367
00:20:46,400 --> 00:20:49,560
Speaker 2: some ways that have big anti business elements. That's obviously

368
00:20:49,600 --> 00:20:52,119
Speaker 2: true with the progressive Bernie Sanders wing, but there is

369
00:20:52,160 --> 00:20:55,120
Speaker 2: a wing of the Republican Party now that is very

370
00:20:55,160 --> 00:20:59,200
Speaker 2: anti business, that thinks businesses hollow out the middle classes.

371
00:20:59,240 --> 00:21:02,600
Speaker 2: Exported job jd Vance being a spokesman for that to

372
00:21:02,640 --> 00:21:06,159
Speaker 2: some extent, mart Marco Rubio, who would be quite happy

373
00:21:06,440 --> 00:21:09,240
Speaker 2: to squeeze business in all sorts of ways, to impose

374
00:21:09,280 --> 00:21:13,680
Speaker 2: tariffs that business doesn't want, because they think business has

375
00:21:13,680 --> 00:21:16,119
Speaker 2: had it too good. And that's one reason why they

376
00:21:16,119 --> 00:21:18,960
Speaker 2: attracted a certain chunk of the voters, because they wanted

377
00:21:19,240 --> 00:21:22,000
Speaker 2: to stick it to business. So you have business is

378
00:21:22,040 --> 00:21:25,120
Speaker 2: in a much much more delicate position than it was

379
00:21:25,200 --> 00:21:28,840
Speaker 2: in the nineteen nineties, and Trump, partly for personal reasons,

380
00:21:28,960 --> 00:21:33,440
Speaker 2: would quite like to stick it to chunks of corporate America.

381
00:21:33,080 --> 00:21:35,000
Speaker 1: Until they pick up the phone and kind of give

382
00:21:35,040 --> 00:21:37,760
Speaker 1: him a few compliments. He's been quite clear to us

383
00:21:37,960 --> 00:21:39,600
Speaker 1: that you know, if you pick up the phone to

384
00:21:39,680 --> 00:21:42,440
Speaker 1: Donald Trump, he admires your hoodspur and he gives you

385
00:21:42,480 --> 00:21:43,840
Speaker 1: a deal like Tim Cook.

386
00:21:43,720 --> 00:21:45,720
Speaker 2: But he also wants to give a hard time to business.

387
00:21:45,760 --> 00:21:47,439
Speaker 2: So as I say, is it's almost a person who

388
00:21:47,560 --> 00:21:50,639
Speaker 2: operates above class interests, partly in his own interests and

389
00:21:50,680 --> 00:21:54,639
Speaker 2: partly meeting out justice or meeting out rewards, according to him.

390
00:21:54,760 --> 00:22:01,080
Speaker 2: So the anti business section of the listener, as I

391
00:22:01,080 --> 00:22:04,040
Speaker 2: said with JG. Vans, is it's quite a spokesman for

392
00:22:04,200 --> 00:22:06,359
Speaker 2: it's quite a powerful group and could be used to

393
00:22:06,840 --> 00:22:08,720
Speaker 2: bring business in line at the very least.

394
00:22:09,080 --> 00:22:12,560
Speaker 4: And Elon Musk is at mar A Lago helping Donald

395
00:22:12,600 --> 00:22:17,359
Speaker 4: Trump hand pick cabinet members, so there is a you know,

396
00:22:17,400 --> 00:22:21,960
Speaker 4: the Silicon Valley contingent has someone deeply imbedded in the

397
00:22:21,960 --> 00:22:24,640
Speaker 4: White House. And you made such a great point, Adrian,

398
00:22:25,080 --> 00:22:27,240
Speaker 4: about where both parties are with business. I think the

399
00:22:27,280 --> 00:22:32,239
Speaker 4: Democrats are bad at framing all of the opportunity and

400
00:22:32,240 --> 00:22:36,520
Speaker 4: innovation that comes with the American business community, and the

401
00:22:36,560 --> 00:22:40,400
Speaker 4: Republicans have lost sight of that. And there's a lot

402
00:22:40,440 --> 00:22:45,160
Speaker 4: of vilification around both parties messaging towards the business community.

403
00:22:45,680 --> 00:22:48,520
Speaker 4: And I think, as with any professional class, some of

404
00:22:48,560 --> 00:22:51,639
Speaker 4: it's justified, including the media. We all make mistakes, but

405
00:22:51,720 --> 00:22:54,639
Speaker 4: I think, you know, the having a whole group be

406
00:22:54,680 --> 00:22:58,480
Speaker 4: put in the doghouse that is essentially the fuel of

407
00:22:58,520 --> 00:23:00,919
Speaker 4: the US economy is going to be really problematic. And

408
00:23:00,960 --> 00:23:03,960
Speaker 4: I think this will really come home to roost in

409
00:23:04,359 --> 00:23:08,480
Speaker 4: the Trump administration view of big tech, because they're broadly

410
00:23:09,000 --> 00:23:13,439
Speaker 4: interested in defanging the FTC and anti trust movements, and

411
00:23:13,520 --> 00:23:16,560
Speaker 4: yet they really want the big tech monopoly to be

412
00:23:16,560 --> 00:23:20,399
Speaker 4: broken up. So you have this philosophic contradiction there. And

413
00:23:20,440 --> 00:23:24,080
Speaker 4: then Silicon Valley has been the hotbed of American innovation

414
00:23:24,200 --> 00:23:27,720
Speaker 4: now in a profound and revolutionary way for a few decades,

415
00:23:28,240 --> 00:23:31,159
Speaker 4: with Musk himself being an ambassador for that through Tesla

416
00:23:31,160 --> 00:23:34,960
Speaker 4: and everything else. And yet there's also this hostility towards

417
00:23:35,040 --> 00:23:38,600
Speaker 4: the power it now wields. And you can't really have

418
00:23:38,680 --> 00:23:40,760
Speaker 4: it both waves. And I don't think the Trump administration

419
00:23:40,800 --> 00:23:44,280
Speaker 4: has figured out how to you know, split the baby.

420
00:23:44,320 --> 00:23:47,800
Speaker 2: There you'll have in oligarchs and out oligarchs, you know,

421
00:23:48,280 --> 00:23:51,280
Speaker 2: all competing for the attention of the Sun king. If

422
00:23:51,320 --> 00:23:54,679
Speaker 2: you go back to the coldbet just like Russia analogy.

423
00:23:54,760 --> 00:23:59,280
Speaker 3: Yes, there's a convergence in different countries of the way

424
00:23:59,359 --> 00:24:02,240
Speaker 3: things are going to do that if you try to

425
00:24:02,280 --> 00:24:06,280
Speaker 3: remember my you know, my undergraduate economics. But the Nash

426
00:24:06,280 --> 00:24:09,240
Speaker 3: equilibrium or whatever, the point where everybody is comfortable is

427
00:24:09,280 --> 00:24:12,919
Speaker 3: where everybody does their own mechantialist thing that seems to

428
00:24:12,960 --> 00:24:17,400
Speaker 3: be the moderately stable equilibrium that we might be heading towards.

429
00:24:17,880 --> 00:24:20,720
Speaker 3: I think the mention of anti trust is fascinating in

430
00:24:20,760 --> 00:24:24,359
Speaker 3: that it's one of the places where, under the weird

431
00:24:24,440 --> 00:24:27,639
Speaker 3: political realignment that we're seeing, that you've actually had Amy Klobisher,

432
00:24:28,000 --> 00:24:33,040
Speaker 3: a very impressive Democratic senator, and Josh Hawley, who was

433
00:24:33,359 --> 00:24:37,560
Speaker 3: fairly clarion of the trumpet right, very bright Republican senator

434
00:24:37,560 --> 00:24:43,320
Speaker 3: from Missouri, were drafting really very aggressive anti trust bills together.

435
00:24:44,440 --> 00:24:46,080
Speaker 3: And it seemed to me that this was a kind

436
00:24:46,119 --> 00:24:49,119
Speaker 3: of thing that there was a possibility of a meeting,

437
00:24:49,560 --> 00:24:53,880
Speaker 3: not unlike with Theodor Roosevelt over a century ago, of yes,

438
00:24:54,119 --> 00:24:57,359
Speaker 3: we sort of believe in capitalism, but this is accept

439
00:24:57,600 --> 00:25:00,159
Speaker 3: something needs to be done to rein it in and

440
00:25:00,200 --> 00:25:03,879
Speaker 3: make it fair. That seemed to be a version that

441
00:25:04,720 --> 00:25:08,840
Speaker 3: might come through as a new consensus. I don't myself

442
00:25:08,880 --> 00:25:11,360
Speaker 3: think if we're getting rid of Lena Kahan and empowering

443
00:25:11,359 --> 00:25:16,800
Speaker 3: Elon Musk, I assume that's less likely than it was.

444
00:25:16,920 --> 00:25:20,040
Speaker 3: But I can, as I was saying, I can quite

445
00:25:20,080 --> 00:25:23,320
Speaker 3: easily imagine Donald Trump deciding a year from now, actually, yes,

446
00:25:23,400 --> 00:25:25,520
Speaker 3: let's split up some monopolies and do anti.

447
00:25:25,200 --> 00:25:27,000
Speaker 1: Truck I think the problem with that is I think

448
00:25:27,040 --> 00:25:31,239
Speaker 1: there's just be too many of the big businesses that

449
00:25:31,320 --> 00:25:35,159
Speaker 1: have donors that have supported Donald Trump would stand to

450
00:25:35,240 --> 00:25:40,040
Speaker 1: lose from continuing that kind of pro competition thrust. But

451
00:25:40,080 --> 00:25:43,280
Speaker 1: it is interesting. I think if Jadie Vance ended up

452
00:25:43,359 --> 00:25:46,320
Speaker 1: being more influential and Donald Trump got fed up with

453
00:25:46,359 --> 00:25:48,360
Speaker 1: Elon Musk, which I guess a lot of people suspect

454
00:25:48,520 --> 00:25:53,640
Speaker 1: might happen. Jady Vance obviously has talked favorably about Lena Kahn,

455
00:25:53,720 --> 00:25:56,160
Speaker 1: and I think does have more of that focus as

456
00:25:56,200 --> 00:25:56,720
Speaker 1: you suggest.

457
00:25:57,160 --> 00:26:01,400
Speaker 4: Think about Steve Schwartzmann, right, another huge Trump backer, stalwart

458
00:26:01,400 --> 00:26:04,760
Speaker 4: of the Republican Party, founder and chairman of Blackstone. I

459
00:26:04,760 --> 00:26:07,080
Speaker 4: think it's now probably the biggest private equity firm in

460
00:26:07,119 --> 00:26:12,680
Speaker 4: the world. His portfolio companies, his firm's companies span the

461
00:26:12,880 --> 00:26:17,320
Speaker 4: entire spectrum of the American business landscape in every way imaginable,

462
00:26:17,520 --> 00:26:21,560
Speaker 4: and its viability as a firm depends on that, and

463
00:26:21,600 --> 00:26:24,399
Speaker 4: his investments depend on it. And he is not you

464
00:26:24,400 --> 00:26:28,280
Speaker 4: gonna want to see Donald Trump taking a bulldozer to

465
00:26:28,640 --> 00:26:33,280
Speaker 4: ninety five percent of Blackstone's portfolio. Having said that, even

466
00:26:33,320 --> 00:26:35,320
Speaker 4: if he doesn't want to see it happen. The random

467
00:26:35,320 --> 00:26:40,200
Speaker 4: thing with Trump is it could anyway.

468
00:26:41,160 --> 00:26:44,600
Speaker 1: Thank you, Tim and John, Thank you so much. That

469
00:26:44,640 --> 00:26:49,280
Speaker 1: was all good fun. Well, if nothing else, we've raised

470
00:26:49,320 --> 00:26:52,919
Speaker 1: the tone on this podcast. You take your common garden

471
00:26:52,960 --> 00:26:56,680
Speaker 1: references to the nineteen twenties, nineteen thirties, We pooh poo those,

472
00:26:56,720 --> 00:26:59,040
Speaker 1: We take them and we raised them to Louis the

473
00:26:59,080 --> 00:27:03,320
Speaker 1: fourteenth star mercantilism. Although I should say, just to clarify

474
00:27:03,480 --> 00:27:07,200
Speaker 1: people who were listening to John Author's earlier, that Colbert

475
00:27:07,280 --> 00:27:12,040
Speaker 1: he referenced in the context of mechantilism was Jean Baptiste

476
00:27:12,119 --> 00:27:16,080
Speaker 1: Colbert and not Stephen Colbert, who we can see quite

477
00:27:16,080 --> 00:27:24,159
Speaker 1: often on American television. Thanks for listening to this week's

478
00:27:24,160 --> 00:27:27,040
Speaker 1: photon Nomics from Bloomberg. This episode was hosted by me

479
00:27:27,160 --> 00:27:30,600
Speaker 1: Stephanie Flanders with Adrian Wildridge, and it was produced as

480
00:27:30,600 --> 00:27:34,320
Speaker 1: ever by Summer Sadi, with sound design by Blake Maples

481
00:27:34,680 --> 00:27:39,560
Speaker 1: and special thanks to John Author's and Tim O'Brien. Please subscribe, rate,

482
00:27:39,640 --> 00:27:42,399
Speaker 1: and review highly this podcast wherever you found it