WEBVTT - Mattel CEO Says SpaceX Deal Was Unexpected

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<v Speaker 1>This is Bloomberg Business Week. I'm Carol Masser and I'm

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Quick Takes Tim Stanobek. We're here every day bringing

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<v Speaker 1>Search Bloomberg Global News and shares A matteler trading lower today,

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<v Speaker 1>down more than six percent, after the company said second

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<v Speaker 1>quarter margins shrank due to inflation, higher supply chain costs,

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<v Speaker 1>and royalty expenses. CEO Kries was on with our Bloomberg

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<v Speaker 1>TV crew earlier and they talked about um how the

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<v Speaker 1>company that did keep their forecast intact. Enon Cries as

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<v Speaker 1>chairman and CEO of Mattel. He joined us on the

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<v Speaker 1>phone from California right now. Enon, great to have you

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<v Speaker 1>back with us. How are you right, TI? Hi? Carol?

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<v Speaker 1>Right to be here we'll bring us to to the

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<v Speaker 1>most recent quarter and what you're expecting for the rest

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<v Speaker 1>of two because when when we've been able to talk

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<v Speaker 1>to you over the last few months, you've been really

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<v Speaker 1>confident that you can manage the supply chain challenges in

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<v Speaker 1>the inflationary environment that we find ourselves in right now,

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<v Speaker 1>that's right. So, first of all, on the quarter that

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<v Speaker 1>we just completed, these were excellent results from Matail, without

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<v Speaker 1>eight consecutive quarter of top line growth. Our profits also

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<v Speaker 1>grew significantly, with adjusted operating income up despite high inflation

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<v Speaker 1>and following a record first half. We expect to continue

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<v Speaker 1>growing in the second half and are planning for increase

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<v Speaker 1>in consumer demand in the holiday season. So all in all,

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<v Speaker 1>we're very happy with the position we are in. We

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<v Speaker 1>expect to win markets you are going forward, and we

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<v Speaker 1>reiterated fullier guidance for strong top line growth, um increase profitability,

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<v Speaker 1>a higher gross margin. UH and all of this is

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<v Speaker 1>in spite of significant inflation and negative currency impact. So

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<v Speaker 1>are you like, come on, investors, you still got it wrong. Look,

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<v Speaker 1>we have very focused on managing the company. We have

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<v Speaker 1>been growing now consistently. We're executing on our strategy we have.

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<v Speaker 1>You know, we wren market share for two years in

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<v Speaker 1>a row, and we expect to win market share this

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<v Speaker 1>year as well. Our supply chain is in very good shape.

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<v Speaker 1>All of our own and operated factories are fully fully operational.

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<v Speaker 1>Product is flowing in, we're seeing we're expecting a second

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<v Speaker 1>half retail sales to be above the first half levels.

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<v Speaker 1>We're seeking the industry growing as well well. So, so

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<v Speaker 1>you know what happened because one of the things that

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<v Speaker 1>we Tim and I have always after we talk with you,

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<v Speaker 1>were kind of blown away by your ability to be

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<v Speaker 1>flexible with supply chains, move them ahead of kind of

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<v Speaker 1>some of the constraints that we've seen in the last

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<v Speaker 1>couple of years, and manage it really really well. So

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<v Speaker 1>what happened in the last quarter, because I think it's

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<v Speaker 1>safe to say that what is freaking out investors and

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<v Speaker 1>it's been a top theme for all us here at Bloomberg,

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<v Speaker 1>is what's happening with margins? What happened that your margins shrunk?

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<v Speaker 1>That maybe even caught you guys by surprise. No, the

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<v Speaker 1>margin impact was expected. It was factored into our guidance.

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<v Speaker 1>We talked about it at the beginning of the year. Uh,

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<v Speaker 1>and if anything, it's getting better actually because we did

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<v Speaker 1>revise our guidance on gross margin UM, uh, not by much,

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<v Speaker 1>but nevertheless a positive you know, uplift. We're able to

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<v Speaker 1>upset currency negative currency impact and maintain and reiterate our

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<v Speaker 1>guidance for the full year. So the margin, the margin

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<v Speaker 1>UM reduction was very much expected and and the set

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<v Speaker 1>you know, factored into into our guidance at the beginning

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<v Speaker 1>of the year. Over time, over time, we do expect

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<v Speaker 1>that the combination of pricing and cost savings will more

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<v Speaker 1>than exceed the impact of inflation and contribute to margin expansion.

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<v Speaker 1>And we do expect that we do expect inflation to

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<v Speaker 1>moderate in twenty three. But you know, we also reiterated

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<v Speaker 1>our goals for three where we talk about high single

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<v Speaker 1>digit growth and constant currency adjusted operating in a margin

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<v Speaker 1>of six and continue to grow our earning for share

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<v Speaker 1>and exceed at our ninety So we're staying the course,

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<v Speaker 1>continue to execute our strategy and seeing seeing it in

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<v Speaker 1>the numbers. Give me an idea of what you're seeing

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<v Speaker 1>with pricing power right now? Where are you able to

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<v Speaker 1>raise prices so that consumers will continue to pay but

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<v Speaker 1>you can better cover increasing costs on your side without

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<v Speaker 1>destructing demand, as pricing is one of the options we

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<v Speaker 1>consider in times of inflation. Uh. Sorry, this is not

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<v Speaker 1>obviously unique to Mattel or unique to the toy industry.

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<v Speaker 1>But we've said before, and we're being very consistent about it,

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<v Speaker 1>is that when we raise prices, we always keep consumers

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<v Speaker 1>in mind. We're being very thoughtful and strategic and are

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<v Speaker 1>committed to maintaining the highest quality and best value for consumers.

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<v Speaker 1>We haven't seen, um, you know, any negative impact for

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<v Speaker 1>the pricing actions we two class year. We just took

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<v Speaker 1>another action that will become that will be factored into

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<v Speaker 1>our numbers in the second half. Um. And this is

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<v Speaker 1>something that we previously announced, So this is not new news,

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<v Speaker 1>and we haven't seen a negative impact. You know. These

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<v Speaker 1>actions are very method calling thought to. So what's selling?

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<v Speaker 1>I know in our Bloomberg story that you guys I

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<v Speaker 1>think said on the conference call last night that you

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<v Speaker 1>guys were seeing some softness and sales of higher priced

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<v Speaker 1>items such as a Barbie dreamhouse I think, which costs

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<v Speaker 1>around two hundred dollars, having owned one when I was younger. Um,

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<v Speaker 1>But anyway, so what is selling? What is not where

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<v Speaker 1>are you seeing maybe some consumer sensitivity because of the

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<v Speaker 1>overall inflationary environment. Well, in the in the second quarter,

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<v Speaker 1>we saw comprehensive growth, uh, you know two in constant currency. Uh,

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<v Speaker 1>we were up in double digit strong double digits in

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<v Speaker 1>North America, Emia and Latin America. We grew in all

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<v Speaker 1>of our reported categories and in three in our three

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<v Speaker 1>power brands, Barbie, Hot Wheels, and Fisher Price. So the

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<v Speaker 1>performance was pretty pretty comprehensive with some really strong numbers.

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<v Speaker 1>We did say that Hot Wheels, as an example, is

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<v Speaker 1>on on track to achieve its fifth record year in

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<v Speaker 1>a row. Uh. Barbie is just coming off an all

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<v Speaker 1>time high, and we said that we expect to be

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<v Speaker 1>sales for Barbie to be comparable. So we're holding a

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<v Speaker 1>very high bar right, and a pretty pretty strong performance

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<v Speaker 1>across the board. So we were talking about the Barbie

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<v Speaker 1>movie on the call, and I know we've talked with

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<v Speaker 1>that for you before. I think for what I've understand

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<v Speaker 1>is that it's wrapped in terms of principal photography. What

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<v Speaker 1>we've been wondering and I'm going to steal a question

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<v Speaker 1>that actually Tim brought up on our call, but he said,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, the point of do you anticipate making more

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<v Speaker 1>money UM from the movie and your partnership on the

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<v Speaker 1>Barbie movie, or more from the lift that the Barbie

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<v Speaker 1>brand gets thanks to the movie. We absolutely see this

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<v Speaker 1>opportunity as as incremental to our toy business. Our strategy

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<v Speaker 1>to capture the full value of our IP is about

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<v Speaker 1>participating in highly a creative business verticals that are adjacent

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<v Speaker 1>to the toy industry and are also driven by big

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<v Speaker 1>franchises and big brands, but we want them and expect

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<v Speaker 1>them to be a creative in and of themselves. So

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<v Speaker 1>the partnership or you know, the Barbie movie and the

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<v Speaker 1>the the partnership that we have with Warner Brothers UM

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<v Speaker 1>is such that we have a meaningful economic participation in

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<v Speaker 1>the Barbie Movie as well as for that matter, all

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<v Speaker 1>of our movie projects. We do have economic participation, and

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<v Speaker 1>of course we understand that in success there will be

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<v Speaker 1>a benefit for the toy business, but we do expect

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<v Speaker 1>the economic participation outside of the toy aisle as well.

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<v Speaker 1>What does meaningful economic participation mean? Does that mean that

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<v Speaker 1>that you are that Mattels a producer of the movie,

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<v Speaker 1>You're putting money into the movie, or does it mean

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<v Speaker 1>that you get a percentage of ticket sales. It's uh,

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<v Speaker 1>it's different economics, different types of participations. But we do

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<v Speaker 1>not found the movie. We do not uh, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>participate in in movie financing. This is not our expertise

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<v Speaker 1>and not our business. But we do participate economically both

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<v Speaker 1>as the I T owner, as the owner of the brand,

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<v Speaker 1>and as a producer. We are a producer on all

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<v Speaker 1>of our projects. Do you get a piece of the

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<v Speaker 1>box office? You know, we haven't been specific on the

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<v Speaker 1>commercial terms, but box office and research are part of

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<v Speaker 1>the equation of uh of of you know, of typical participations. Hey,

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<v Speaker 1>can we talk to you about SpaceX. We've been talking

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<v Speaker 1>about this story all week long. UM, tell us about

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<v Speaker 1>the collaboration. It's a multi year agreement that Mattel has

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<v Speaker 1>announced with SpaceX to produce toys and collectibles. Yeah, this

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<v Speaker 1>is an exciting partnership to create space exploration to and

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<v Speaker 1>collectibles under the Matchbox brand. The toys will come out

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<v Speaker 1>next year. The collectible uh toys will be available on

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<v Speaker 1>matel creation or direct to consumer side. And this is

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<v Speaker 1>really about um, you know, scaling our portfolio. UM, it's

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<v Speaker 1>about innovation, It's about thinking out of the box and

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<v Speaker 1>bringing new partners to the toy aisle. And this was

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<v Speaker 1>one that people were you know, didn't expect and didn't

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<v Speaker 1>see coming. And it is exciting because we are partnering

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<v Speaker 1>with an exciting company in an exciting area. But you know,

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<v Speaker 1>more than this partnership specifically, it is about how we

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<v Speaker 1>continue to scale our portfolio work to position matel as

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<v Speaker 1>a partner of choice major IP owners. Is there going

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<v Speaker 1>to be a figure? That's what I want to know. Uh,

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<v Speaker 1>it's uh, it's you know, obviously this uh, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>we don't go into that level of resolution on the

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<v Speaker 1>product side, but we always do to continue to innovate

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<v Speaker 1>and delight our consumers and do it in fun and

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<v Speaker 1>creative ways. I would imagine there is demand for that,

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<v Speaker 1>so I guess we'll have to wait and see you.

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<v Speaker 1>I would buy in Elan Dahl. I just think that

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<v Speaker 1>would be kind of fun. Um Enon, thank you so

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<v Speaker 1>much once again just giving us a nice junk of

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<v Speaker 1>time and really leaning into the business and letting us

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<v Speaker 1>know what's going on. Inenon cries. He is the chairman

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<v Speaker 1>and chief executive officer of Mattel. Mattel Shares under pressure

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<v Speaker 1>but as we mentioned, they are still up for the year.

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<v Speaker 1>Here in two. This is Bloomberg Business Week with Carol

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<v Speaker 1>Messer and Bloomberg Quick Takes Tim Stinovic on Bloomberg Radio.

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<v Speaker 1>It's a new way show Bloomberg Business Week Magazine at

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<v Speaker 1>on newsstands, online and of course on the Bloomberg terminal.

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<v Speaker 1>And in it is a story about the AI platform

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<v Speaker 1>behind a Jeff Bezos back startups Vegan Burger. So I

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<v Speaker 1>feel like him that there are so many big Macro

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<v Speaker 1>themes of the day in this story said big Mac,

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<v Speaker 1>which kind of makes sense. Did I say big big Macro?

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<v Speaker 1>I heard you know, so I hear big macin next

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<v Speaker 1>I'm always talking about food, He's always. Augusta Suriva is

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<v Speaker 1>supply chain reporter for Bloomberg New She's with us right

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<v Speaker 1>now in the Bloomberg Interactive, a broker's studio. Augusta, good

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<v Speaker 1>to have you with us. What is this AI platform?

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<v Speaker 1>Um with not company? Essay, thank you for having me on.

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<v Speaker 1>And it's interesting that you said big Mac because they

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<v Speaker 1>actually have a big deal with Burger king um. But

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<v Speaker 1>this company is actually a Chilean start up. It was

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<v Speaker 1>a big Mac McDonald's or Burger King, Big Mac is

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<v Speaker 1>McDonald's Whoppers, Burger King. But there I'm getting picky, But

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<v Speaker 1>they're they're kind of the counterparts of the restaurant. You

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<v Speaker 1>gotta know your burger's carols. These are not burgers. They're

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<v Speaker 1>not burgers literally, they're made out of potato chips. They're

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<v Speaker 1>made out of sunflower oil. Everything that you would not

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<v Speaker 1>expect to see on a burger is there? Okay? The

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<v Speaker 1>problem though, is sunflower oil a little hard to come

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<v Speaker 1>by these days? Yes, And when you're making alternatives to burgers,

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<v Speaker 1>that's extremely needed because it goes on a third of

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<v Speaker 1>all of the alternative burger out there. And because of

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<v Speaker 1>the war in Ukraine and because all of the supply

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<v Speaker 1>change shortages we've been hearing about over the past year,

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<v Speaker 1>it's been hard to find. So what this company did,

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<v Speaker 1>I mean, since they were already creating alternatives to everything,

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<v Speaker 1>they just decided to make alternatives to the alternatives, right,

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<v Speaker 1>So that's how they came up with the idea. And

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<v Speaker 1>how does it work? Is it good? And does it

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<v Speaker 1>taste right? Or it like wow? That's the point. They

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<v Speaker 1>just started trying it out and if it works out,

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<v Speaker 1>that's the plan. They want to sort of like revolutionize

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<v Speaker 1>the industry. But right now, what they're doing is that

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<v Speaker 1>they're using the algorithm, which they call Giu Zappe. It's

0:13:35.920 --> 0:13:38.600
<v Speaker 1>sort of a nickname, and they're trying to use that

0:13:38.679 --> 0:13:40.559
<v Speaker 1>to create on that somebody was in a lab. There

0:13:40.640 --> 0:13:42.280
<v Speaker 1>was a little i don't know, to kill a going

0:13:42.320 --> 0:13:43.800
<v Speaker 1>around and like, what are we gonna call this thing

0:13:43.920 --> 0:13:47.160
<v Speaker 1>just or is there a reason behind it? There is

0:13:47.200 --> 0:13:50.600
<v Speaker 1>a reason behind It's based on an Italian painter that

0:13:50.640 --> 0:13:55.560
<v Speaker 1>would only paint using vegetables, So that's why there's the reason. Okay,

0:13:55.640 --> 0:13:58.000
<v Speaker 1>So so I'm also imagining in my head like a

0:13:58.000 --> 0:14:00.839
<v Speaker 1>little robot that kind of goes in and taste things

0:14:00.880 --> 0:14:03.360
<v Speaker 1>and things to itself. Okay, this is what could be

0:14:03.440 --> 0:14:06.440
<v Speaker 1>a meaningful alternative. But we're just talking about algorithms at

0:14:06.440 --> 0:14:09.640
<v Speaker 1>a computer, right Yeah, in a way, it's just a computer,

0:14:09.800 --> 0:14:12.560
<v Speaker 1>but it's sort of scans the product and then it

0:14:12.640 --> 0:14:17.000
<v Speaker 1>breaks everything down, either if it's a recipe or if

0:14:17.080 --> 0:14:21.280
<v Speaker 1>it's an ingredient the product. So it looks at let's

0:14:21.320 --> 0:14:25.400
<v Speaker 1>say a lettuce leaf, and it's like, so what's here,

0:14:25.520 --> 0:14:28.400
<v Speaker 1>what are the molecules? What is everything that is here?

0:14:28.640 --> 0:14:30.400
<v Speaker 1>So that they look at that and then they're like,

0:14:30.480 --> 0:14:34.160
<v Speaker 1>how can I recreate that using different things? Maybe lettice

0:14:34.360 --> 0:14:37.520
<v Speaker 1>wasn't the best example because we don't actually need vegan

0:14:37.560 --> 0:14:39.880
<v Speaker 1>alternatives to that, but maybe if you look at a burger,

0:14:40.200 --> 0:14:42.720
<v Speaker 1>how do you take the animal out of the equation?

0:14:42.840 --> 0:14:45.120
<v Speaker 1>So that's what the algorithm does. I keep thinking of,

0:14:45.160 --> 0:14:47.320
<v Speaker 1>like this incredible white borders right, like, and here's what

0:14:47.320 --> 0:14:49.160
<v Speaker 1>the traditional thing is, and what are some things that

0:14:49.200 --> 0:14:51.000
<v Speaker 1>we can use to substitute that maybe give it the

0:14:51.000 --> 0:14:55.760
<v Speaker 1>same kick nutritionally or because the bigger story here and

0:14:55.760 --> 0:14:57.720
<v Speaker 1>this is why I get to the big mac story.

0:14:57.800 --> 0:15:01.080
<v Speaker 1>The big macri story is we are looking at a

0:15:01.120 --> 0:15:03.960
<v Speaker 1>world that is getting maxed out, and how do we

0:15:04.000 --> 0:15:06.440
<v Speaker 1>don't feed the people that are currently on this earth?

0:15:06.480 --> 0:15:07.760
<v Speaker 1>So how do we do it in the face of

0:15:07.760 --> 0:15:10.520
<v Speaker 1>things like climate change that are really shifting where we

0:15:10.600 --> 0:15:13.880
<v Speaker 1>traditionally farm and so on? So it's like, how do

0:15:13.960 --> 0:15:16.440
<v Speaker 1>we do this? And and this is maybe part of

0:15:16.440 --> 0:15:19.720
<v Speaker 1>the solution. Yeah, And that's exactly how Nacho was born.

0:15:19.840 --> 0:15:22.280
<v Speaker 1>They were born not only to create alternatives. So it's

0:15:22.280 --> 0:15:26.360
<v Speaker 1>not like oat milk that actually doesn't taste anything like milk, right,

0:15:26.840 --> 0:15:29.440
<v Speaker 1>Their goal is to make alternatives that are good for

0:15:29.560 --> 0:15:33.080
<v Speaker 1>the climate. They're good for people who do not eat meat,

0:15:33.160 --> 0:15:36.320
<v Speaker 1>who try to avoid that, but they also want their

0:15:36.360 --> 0:15:39.480
<v Speaker 1>products to taste like the real ones. So their milk,

0:15:39.520 --> 0:15:41.400
<v Speaker 1>if you go and try them, it's made out of

0:15:41.400 --> 0:15:44.480
<v Speaker 1>pineapple juice, but still it tastes like actual milk. It's

0:15:44.480 --> 0:15:47.120
<v Speaker 1>pretty amazing that they're able to do that. Augusta, I'm

0:15:47.160 --> 0:15:50.400
<v Speaker 1>I'm wondering about competitors in this space. We talked a

0:15:50.400 --> 0:15:53.000
<v Speaker 1>lot about Beyond Meats, publicly traded company. This stock has

0:15:53.000 --> 0:15:55.280
<v Speaker 1>been under a ton of pressure. We just had Dina

0:15:55.320 --> 0:15:57.640
<v Speaker 1>Shanker on our program yesterday talking about the challenges that

0:15:57.640 --> 0:16:01.120
<v Speaker 1>they're having with Pepperoni, and then if course Impossible Foods,

0:16:01.160 --> 0:16:04.000
<v Speaker 1>which is still privately held. They sort of have their

0:16:04.080 --> 0:16:07.320
<v Speaker 1>you know, secret recipes to try to replicate what the

0:16:07.360 --> 0:16:11.640
<v Speaker 1>taste of a burger or animal protein is. Is this

0:16:12.040 --> 0:16:14.360
<v Speaker 1>like a secret not a secret recipe, but is this

0:16:14.400 --> 0:16:17.560
<v Speaker 1>like a secret sauce for this company, this algorithm to

0:16:17.600 --> 0:16:21.160
<v Speaker 1>try to replicate it is? Indeed, uh, And that's the point.

0:16:21.160 --> 0:16:23.520
<v Speaker 1>It's a private company, so at this point we don't

0:16:23.560 --> 0:16:26.360
<v Speaker 1>really know where they're going with that. They actually had

0:16:26.400 --> 0:16:29.880
<v Speaker 1>plans to go public next year, but with all the headwinds.

0:16:29.920 --> 0:16:32.760
<v Speaker 1>That might not be the case, um, but as of now, yes,

0:16:32.880 --> 0:16:36.280
<v Speaker 1>that's their secret ingredient right there, Big Max Sauce. It's

0:16:36.360 --> 0:16:38.280
<v Speaker 1>kind of the next step when we keep thinking about

0:16:39.200 --> 0:16:41.200
<v Speaker 1>It's so funny we're talking about Beyond Meat this week,

0:16:41.240 --> 0:16:42.760
<v Speaker 1>and like when it first came on the scene, it

0:16:42.800 --> 0:16:45.280
<v Speaker 1>was like, Okay, this is the answer, right, defeating the world.

0:16:45.720 --> 0:16:48.280
<v Speaker 1>But this actually takes a much bigger picture, right and

0:16:48.280 --> 0:16:51.040
<v Speaker 1>looks at all the elements and things, and like, how

0:16:51.200 --> 0:16:55.760
<v Speaker 1>do we kind of figure out alternatives? Is that fair? Yes,

0:16:55.960 --> 0:16:58.360
<v Speaker 1>it is fair, and that's what they're saying. They don't

0:16:58.400 --> 0:17:01.360
<v Speaker 1>want to only revolutionize the one product. They want to

0:17:01.400 --> 0:17:04.119
<v Speaker 1>revolutionize the industry. So maybe one day we're going to

0:17:04.240 --> 0:17:07.879
<v Speaker 1>see that algorithm that jews app becoming the norm in

0:17:07.880 --> 0:17:10.600
<v Speaker 1>the industry, but not right now. Yeah, exactly. It's got

0:17:10.600 --> 0:17:12.560
<v Speaker 1>some big money behind it, right. We talked about Jeff

0:17:12.560 --> 0:17:16.600
<v Speaker 1>Bezos is behind it, Danny Meyer, uh, and a few others. Okay,

0:17:16.640 --> 0:17:18.879
<v Speaker 1>so we talked a little bit about taste. I'm wondering

0:17:18.920 --> 0:17:20.560
<v Speaker 1>about being able to do this on a mass scale.

0:17:20.560 --> 0:17:23.359
<v Speaker 1>Carol alluded to the challenges of feeding the world in

0:17:23.359 --> 0:17:26.520
<v Speaker 1>a previous comment to you, Augusta and I'm wondering how

0:17:26.520 --> 0:17:29.159
<v Speaker 1>we do this in a way that solves the problems

0:17:29.160 --> 0:17:31.240
<v Speaker 1>that we're seeing right now, not just hunger, but of

0:17:31.240 --> 0:17:33.639
<v Speaker 1>course climate change and the and the emissions that are

0:17:33.680 --> 0:17:37.199
<v Speaker 1>associated with raising animals. Yes, and that's one of the

0:17:37.240 --> 0:17:39.879
<v Speaker 1>reasons why we decided to take the supply chain angle

0:17:39.960 --> 0:17:43.320
<v Speaker 1>for this story, right, because with everything that is going

0:17:43.359 --> 0:17:46.439
<v Speaker 1>on nowadays, the disruptions, the war in Ukraine, it's so

0:17:46.480 --> 0:17:49.040
<v Speaker 1>hard to find alternatives. And at the same time you

0:17:49.119 --> 0:17:51.640
<v Speaker 1>have so much hunger going on. And when you think

0:17:52.040 --> 0:17:55.800
<v Speaker 1>even the alternatives, right, even boat milk, the production of that,

0:17:56.080 --> 0:17:59.600
<v Speaker 1>it takes so much water to produce. So even when

0:17:59.600 --> 0:18:04.600
<v Speaker 1>you think of because feel guilty because I love my totally,

0:18:05.280 --> 0:18:08.520
<v Speaker 1>yes I do too. So that's the point, right, can

0:18:08.600 --> 0:18:10.840
<v Speaker 1>we ever get this right? And I think that's what

0:18:10.920 --> 0:18:14.240
<v Speaker 1>this company is trying to do. Create an alternative that

0:18:14.400 --> 0:18:17.159
<v Speaker 1>is good, that is fair, and that doesn't take a

0:18:17.160 --> 0:18:18.880
<v Speaker 1>lot out of us. Well, and if you can start

0:18:18.920 --> 0:18:21.520
<v Speaker 1>to compare like A from B, from C from D

0:18:21.560 --> 0:18:24.159
<v Speaker 1>in terms of different ways of either producing things and

0:18:24.200 --> 0:18:26.399
<v Speaker 1>food the impact on the climate, you can kind of

0:18:26.400 --> 0:18:28.680
<v Speaker 1>figure out which is the most sustainable way. And also,

0:18:29.240 --> 0:18:31.320
<v Speaker 1>you know, meeting the goals of feeding the world if

0:18:31.320 --> 0:18:33.760
<v Speaker 1>you will, august to survive as she is supply chain

0:18:33.800 --> 0:18:35.440
<v Speaker 1>reporter here at Bloomberg News. I love that we have

0:18:35.480 --> 0:18:38.439
<v Speaker 1>a supply chain reporter so relevant and she's just awesome.

0:18:38.640 --> 0:18:40.160
<v Speaker 1>She got to be on our team at quick Take

0:18:40.240 --> 0:18:43.480
<v Speaker 1>for a few months as a rotator and we miss you, Augusta.

0:18:43.640 --> 0:18:47.240
<v Speaker 1>You're listening to Bloomberg Business Week with Carol Messer and

0:18:47.320 --> 0:18:51.680
<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Quick Takes. Tim Stinovic on Bloomberg Radio. A lot

0:18:51.680 --> 0:18:54.080
<v Speaker 1>going on in the world of crypto, and what was

0:18:54.119 --> 0:18:56.280
<v Speaker 1>interesting is we are seeing in some ways over the

0:18:56.320 --> 0:18:59.960
<v Speaker 1>past ten days, investors scooping up about a billion dollars

0:19:00.040 --> 0:19:02.800
<v Speaker 1>worth of crypto exposed companies as a cornd of report

0:19:02.800 --> 0:19:05.399
<v Speaker 1>we've published on Wednesday by Vanda Tracks. So they were

0:19:05.400 --> 0:19:10.080
<v Speaker 1>buying things Tim like Marathon digital coin based Global Riot blockchain.

0:19:10.600 --> 0:19:13.280
<v Speaker 1>I mean, after the carnage, people are finding some opportunity.

0:19:13.280 --> 0:19:15.120
<v Speaker 1>At the same time, Carol, we're starting to see some

0:19:15.400 --> 0:19:18.600
<v Speaker 1>legal action taken against people. Three have been charged in

0:19:18.600 --> 0:19:22.880
<v Speaker 1>the first ever cryptocurrency insider trading tipping scheme. To get

0:19:22.920 --> 0:19:25.399
<v Speaker 1>some information on this and more when it comes to crypto,

0:19:25.520 --> 0:19:28.920
<v Speaker 1>we turned to Kathy Craninger. She's a former director of

0:19:28.960 --> 0:19:33.200
<v Speaker 1>the Consumer Protection Financial Bureau, also vice president of Regulatory Affairs.

0:19:33.200 --> 0:19:35.640
<v Speaker 1>That's sold US Labs. Cathy, great to have you back

0:19:35.720 --> 0:19:38.240
<v Speaker 1>with us, joining us once again from Washington, d C.

0:19:38.400 --> 0:19:41.920
<v Speaker 1>How are you. I'm great, Thank you for having me back.

0:19:42.000 --> 0:19:46.320
<v Speaker 1>It's definitely a busy time in crypto. Yeah. I want

0:19:46.320 --> 0:19:48.320
<v Speaker 1>to start with this coin based news that three have

0:19:48.359 --> 0:19:52.600
<v Speaker 1>been charged in the first ever cryptocurrency insider trading tipping scheme.

0:19:52.680 --> 0:19:55.840
<v Speaker 1>Here are we going to start to see more legal

0:19:55.880 --> 0:20:00.399
<v Speaker 1>action taken against those in the crypto industry. Well, this

0:20:00.520 --> 0:20:04.760
<v Speaker 1>just demonstrates that this industry is in fact obviously regulated

0:20:04.840 --> 0:20:08.040
<v Speaker 1>and subject to the law. And as was said by

0:20:08.080 --> 0:20:11.359
<v Speaker 1>the U S Attorney, fraud is fraud. Um. So the

0:20:11.440 --> 0:20:14.680
<v Speaker 1>indictments are are fairly clear. Um. You know, obviously we'll

0:20:14.680 --> 0:20:18.400
<v Speaker 1>see how the case carries out, but it is critical

0:20:18.520 --> 0:20:23.480
<v Speaker 1>to see rules be enforced. And I'd also note that

0:20:23.840 --> 0:20:27.040
<v Speaker 1>you see in the indictment that coin based had policies

0:20:27.080 --> 0:20:29.879
<v Speaker 1>in place and was in fact monitoring the behavior of

0:20:29.960 --> 0:20:34.040
<v Speaker 1>their employees, which again is what a responsible, um you know,

0:20:34.080 --> 0:20:36.320
<v Speaker 1>market participant would do and what you would hope and

0:20:36.359 --> 0:20:39.280
<v Speaker 1>expect from them. So, UM, I think again, it just

0:20:39.320 --> 0:20:43.320
<v Speaker 1>demonstrates that there are responsible actors in this space, and

0:20:43.359 --> 0:20:46.480
<v Speaker 1>that the people who are engaged in wrongdoing and fraud

0:20:46.840 --> 0:20:50.200
<v Speaker 1>should in fact space prosecution. Is it? Is it also?

0:20:50.240 --> 0:20:52.200
<v Speaker 1>I mean, is there a silver lining to this in

0:20:52.240 --> 0:20:55.159
<v Speaker 1>that it shows that the industry is growing up and

0:20:55.200 --> 0:20:58.959
<v Speaker 1>it's essentially on solid footing in the sense that regulators

0:20:58.960 --> 0:21:03.720
<v Speaker 1>are taking it serious. Now, I think that's that's that's true.

0:21:03.760 --> 0:21:08.680
<v Speaker 1>You see definitely a maturation process regulators understanding the industry better.

0:21:08.800 --> 0:21:10.840
<v Speaker 1>But but as I said, if you go back to

0:21:10.880 --> 0:21:13.439
<v Speaker 1>the lesson here, I think it really is you know,

0:21:13.520 --> 0:21:17.080
<v Speaker 1>fraud is fraud no matter where it happens, um and

0:21:17.160 --> 0:21:19.920
<v Speaker 1>that's something that I think is important. And there are

0:21:19.960 --> 0:21:24.480
<v Speaker 1>absolutely new and novel things about digital asset markets and

0:21:24.920 --> 0:21:28.560
<v Speaker 1>ways that we need to, you know, Taylor things to

0:21:28.640 --> 0:21:32.000
<v Speaker 1>make sure that you're treating, you know, like activities in

0:21:32.000 --> 0:21:35.760
<v Speaker 1>a like way from a regulation standpoint. But some of

0:21:35.800 --> 0:21:38.800
<v Speaker 1>these things, certainly are are things that you see across

0:21:38.840 --> 0:21:41.960
<v Speaker 1>the board wherever there is an opportunity to make money

0:21:41.960 --> 0:21:44.960
<v Speaker 1>and where people see an opportunity to you know, unfairly

0:21:44.960 --> 0:21:46.919
<v Speaker 1>take advantage of others. I feel like it's not a

0:21:46.920 --> 0:21:50.159
<v Speaker 1>new problem We've heard this before, Kathy Um. So alright,

0:21:50.160 --> 0:21:52.840
<v Speaker 1>So three Charge in the first ever cryptocurrency Inside are Trading,

0:21:52.880 --> 0:21:54.720
<v Speaker 1>one of the most read stories in the Bloomberg gets

0:21:54.760 --> 0:21:59.119
<v Speaker 1>an exclusive and it talks about the three Arrow founder story,

0:21:59.320 --> 0:22:02.880
<v Speaker 1>huge story, once high flying hedge fund saying that they're bungled,

0:22:02.880 --> 0:22:06.560
<v Speaker 1>crypto speculation, unleashed, cascading margin, calls on loans that should

0:22:06.560 --> 0:22:10.199
<v Speaker 1>never have been made. So as more things continue to

0:22:10.240 --> 0:22:14.080
<v Speaker 1>come out in different ways, but showing continued carnage, if

0:22:14.119 --> 0:22:17.320
<v Speaker 1>you will, in different ways in the crypto world. What

0:22:17.440 --> 0:22:20.160
<v Speaker 1>are the key problems, the key vulnerabilities in the crypto

0:22:20.200 --> 0:22:23.120
<v Speaker 1>world in your view, that need to be tackled by regulators.

0:22:25.080 --> 0:22:27.439
<v Speaker 1>So there there are definitely things, as I noted, that

0:22:27.520 --> 0:22:31.000
<v Speaker 1>make this space more unique in areas where there needs

0:22:31.040 --> 0:22:34.800
<v Speaker 1>to be some more conversation. I think the Lamas Jilabrand

0:22:34.840 --> 0:22:37.560
<v Speaker 1>bill certainly is an attempt at getting to some of

0:22:37.560 --> 0:22:41.240
<v Speaker 1>those gaps in a more comprehensive treatment in the US,

0:22:41.280 --> 0:22:44.360
<v Speaker 1>And there are other bills too, obviously, Senators Stabino and Bozeman,

0:22:44.400 --> 0:22:48.560
<v Speaker 1>are I guess on the um really about to introduce

0:22:48.640 --> 0:22:51.280
<v Speaker 1>something and you've got the House bills to uh where

0:22:51.320 --> 0:22:54.119
<v Speaker 1>there's a lot of activity and even uh an imminent

0:22:54.200 --> 0:22:57.840
<v Speaker 1>stable coin um regime perhaps coming, and so you know,

0:22:57.920 --> 0:23:02.960
<v Speaker 1>that's that's all positive to see that bipartisan activity now again,

0:23:03.000 --> 0:23:06.159
<v Speaker 1>whether it's something like that fifty digital asset bills and

0:23:06.400 --> 0:23:08.320
<v Speaker 1>you know out there or something. I mean, if you

0:23:08.359 --> 0:23:10.200
<v Speaker 1>had to pick one or two things that you're like, Okay,

0:23:10.240 --> 0:23:12.440
<v Speaker 1>this is what we've got to get down in order

0:23:12.480 --> 0:23:16.040
<v Speaker 1>for this industry to really kind of grow legitimately and

0:23:16.119 --> 0:23:20.720
<v Speaker 1>comfortably and securely, one of them is definitely you know, uh,

0:23:20.920 --> 0:23:24.000
<v Speaker 1>the way we talk about at the taxonomy, the terminology

0:23:24.280 --> 0:23:27.200
<v Speaker 1>uh stable coins of course imply but they are stable

0:23:27.440 --> 0:23:31.399
<v Speaker 1>and that that certainly implies backing in reserve. And so

0:23:31.480 --> 0:23:34.760
<v Speaker 1>that's a conversation that obviously the stable Coin bill UM

0:23:34.920 --> 0:23:38.520
<v Speaker 1>will will seek to address. And we're clearly new authority

0:23:38.600 --> 0:23:43.320
<v Speaker 1>needs to be granted agencies in terms of requirements around

0:23:43.359 --> 0:23:46.080
<v Speaker 1>that that really Congress is best place to act on.

0:23:46.119 --> 0:23:49.600
<v Speaker 1>I guess that's that's one example would provide. So help

0:23:49.680 --> 0:23:52.480
<v Speaker 1>us play that out and what that would would look like, Kathy,

0:23:52.520 --> 0:23:55.359
<v Speaker 1>because I've been thinking a lot about stable coins because

0:23:55.400 --> 0:23:58.560
<v Speaker 1>of the you know, collapse of of of Terra, and

0:23:58.840 --> 0:24:02.040
<v Speaker 1>I'm wondering if all would basically say, okay, well this

0:24:02.119 --> 0:24:04.840
<v Speaker 1>type of stable coin is allowed, maybe one that uses

0:24:05.119 --> 0:24:09.359
<v Speaker 1>cash or you know, commercial paper cash equivalents in equal

0:24:09.520 --> 0:24:11.840
<v Speaker 1>you know, in terms of like what people pull out

0:24:11.880 --> 0:24:15.480
<v Speaker 1>of of tokens. You know, there's that an equal amount

0:24:15.480 --> 0:24:17.560
<v Speaker 1>of money backing it up in a safe somewhere, on

0:24:17.600 --> 0:24:20.560
<v Speaker 1>a balance sheet somewhere. But maybe the algorithmic stable coin

0:24:20.640 --> 0:24:24.919
<v Speaker 1>that's not okay. So I am definitely not going to

0:24:24.920 --> 0:24:26.600
<v Speaker 1>get into the weeds on that because I think it

0:24:26.640 --> 0:24:29.280
<v Speaker 1>depends on how these things are set up and certainly

0:24:29.280 --> 0:24:33.760
<v Speaker 1>again putting the disclosures out there to the public to

0:24:34.520 --> 0:24:36.760
<v Speaker 1>show what is in fact behind I mean, I guess

0:24:36.760 --> 0:24:38.879
<v Speaker 1>I can say there are good actors in this space

0:24:39.160 --> 0:24:42.720
<v Speaker 1>who are demonstrating that they are in fact backing their

0:24:42.840 --> 0:24:46.399
<v Speaker 1>stable coins their tokens, and that they are uh you

0:24:46.440 --> 0:24:50.040
<v Speaker 1>know again engaged where you can you can actually hold

0:24:50.040 --> 0:24:53.159
<v Speaker 1>the peg, and that people are actually getting the value

0:24:53.160 --> 0:24:56.600
<v Speaker 1>out of them. And certainly for defy operations, stable claims

0:24:56.600 --> 0:25:00.000
<v Speaker 1>are essential. Um so I think it really is definitely

0:25:00.080 --> 0:25:02.440
<v Speaker 1>getting some of that out. I know, so that big

0:25:02.480 --> 0:25:04.400
<v Speaker 1>debate is around me you know what what the role

0:25:04.480 --> 0:25:07.399
<v Speaker 1>of banks in this, and so that is definitely a

0:25:07.560 --> 0:25:11.280
<v Speaker 1>dynamic that the Congress is gonna is going to weigh

0:25:11.320 --> 0:25:14.000
<v Speaker 1>in on. So, Cathy, I do wonder about something like

0:25:14.720 --> 0:25:18.040
<v Speaker 1>crypto end or blockchain that it could really criss cross

0:25:18.080 --> 0:25:20.800
<v Speaker 1>a lot of walks of our world. So who needs

0:25:20.840 --> 0:25:23.399
<v Speaker 1>to oversee it? Or is there going to have to

0:25:23.440 --> 0:25:27.720
<v Speaker 1>be a couple of um major departments within the federal

0:25:27.800 --> 0:25:29.560
<v Speaker 1>government that have to oversee it our or in the

0:25:29.640 --> 0:25:33.560
<v Speaker 1>regulatory side of our government. Yeah, it's a great question,

0:25:33.600 --> 0:25:36.240
<v Speaker 1>and I'd say it really is a whole of government approach.

0:25:36.320 --> 0:25:39.520
<v Speaker 1>I mean, there were things that the President's Executive Order

0:25:39.600 --> 0:25:43.760
<v Speaker 1>demonstrated that there are facets of this that affect um

0:25:43.840 --> 0:25:47.480
<v Speaker 1>certainly national security and financial crime. And then you look

0:25:47.520 --> 0:25:50.920
<v Speaker 1>at all of the use cases for what blockchain can

0:25:50.960 --> 0:25:56.640
<v Speaker 1>bring to any ledger process or or transaction process, and

0:25:56.920 --> 0:26:01.159
<v Speaker 1>you think about healthcare and transportation and supply chain and

0:26:01.240 --> 0:26:04.359
<v Speaker 1>so there are definitely a lot of different applications for

0:26:04.359 --> 0:26:07.920
<v Speaker 1>the technology um and things that need to be thought

0:26:07.960 --> 0:26:11.800
<v Speaker 1>about here. But certainly as it comes to financial services,

0:26:12.080 --> 0:26:14.520
<v Speaker 1>you know, if you're engaged in this financial product space,

0:26:15.160 --> 0:26:18.679
<v Speaker 1>you you have kind of the existing regulators that that

0:26:18.720 --> 0:26:21.200
<v Speaker 1>are coming to bear and I think you know they're

0:26:21.240 --> 0:26:25.480
<v Speaker 1>all working through how they can coordinate better, and that's

0:26:25.480 --> 0:26:28.040
<v Speaker 1>something I would encourage because you know, you are going

0:26:28.080 --> 0:26:31.080
<v Speaker 1>to have different regulators, there's no doubt about it, whoever roll.

0:26:31.600 --> 0:26:34.399
<v Speaker 1>But it's how they coordinate together and then send that

0:26:34.440 --> 0:26:38.159
<v Speaker 1>clear message to the industry about what the rules are. Okay, Cathy.

0:26:38.200 --> 0:26:39.960
<v Speaker 1>One thing I've been thinking about an addition to algorithmic

0:26:40.040 --> 0:26:43.320
<v Speaker 1>stable coins a lot is utility here when it comes

0:26:43.320 --> 0:26:45.920
<v Speaker 1>to crypto. And I guess and not ask this question

0:26:45.920 --> 0:26:47.800
<v Speaker 1>all the time because I think with the carnage that

0:26:47.840 --> 0:26:50.360
<v Speaker 1>we've seen over the last few months, two trillion dollars

0:26:50.359 --> 0:26:53.960
<v Speaker 1>in wealth just completely wiped out in billionaires lost money,

0:26:53.960 --> 0:26:56.840
<v Speaker 1>but some people, you know, normal people lost everything, And

0:26:57.359 --> 0:27:01.240
<v Speaker 1>I wonder about utility here beyond aculations sell us on

0:27:01.280 --> 0:27:05.600
<v Speaker 1>the utility of this technology. So this is something that

0:27:05.760 --> 0:27:09.639
<v Speaker 1>is definitely something that's been asked about over and over again.

0:27:09.680 --> 0:27:13.560
<v Speaker 1>I mean that the blockchain technology really is, you know,

0:27:13.640 --> 0:27:17.320
<v Speaker 1>secured by the token and and mining and you know,

0:27:17.359 --> 0:27:20.080
<v Speaker 1>all of that mechanics, and that's where the digital market,

0:27:20.119 --> 0:27:23.840
<v Speaker 1>the digital asset markets um are are base. And so

0:27:24.560 --> 0:27:26.280
<v Speaker 1>you know, people are saying, what what is this in

0:27:26.320 --> 0:27:28.640
<v Speaker 1>the future, I'd say it's again all of the use

0:27:28.720 --> 0:27:32.600
<v Speaker 1>cases that we were just talking about our frankly, they

0:27:32.600 --> 0:27:35.679
<v Speaker 1>don't they don't come without the token UH and the

0:27:35.720 --> 0:27:38.240
<v Speaker 1>digital asset markets. And so that's the part that will

0:27:38.280 --> 0:27:41.840
<v Speaker 1>be interesting to see so many parallels to you know,

0:27:41.880 --> 0:27:45.440
<v Speaker 1>the nineties and and even with even you mentioned Kara

0:27:45.560 --> 0:27:49.400
<v Speaker 1>with the two thousand dot com burst bubble burst then.

0:27:50.040 --> 0:27:53.679
<v Speaker 1>But I would say it's really incumbent on the industry

0:27:53.840 --> 0:27:58.879
<v Speaker 1>to move together smartly and and start demonstrating all of

0:27:58.920 --> 0:28:00.560
<v Speaker 1>the things that will be built of this and the

0:28:00.600 --> 0:28:03.720
<v Speaker 1>fact that we're operating, you know, with integrity, that we're

0:28:04.040 --> 0:28:08.720
<v Speaker 1>providing disclosures and clarity and transparency UM. And you know

0:28:08.760 --> 0:28:11.480
<v Speaker 1>that's where companies like Solidus Labs come into is we're

0:28:11.480 --> 0:28:15.359
<v Speaker 1>really pressing market integrity right right and certainly UH in

0:28:15.440 --> 0:28:19.639
<v Speaker 1>terms of surveillance and monitoring. Kathy Croningar, she's former director

0:28:19.640 --> 0:28:23.600
<v Speaker 1>of the Consumer Protection Financial Bureau and vice president of

0:28:23.600 --> 0:28:26.000
<v Speaker 1>Regulatory Fairs at solid Us Labs joining us on the

0:28:26.000 --> 0:28:28.920
<v Speaker 1>phone from Washington, d C. As for bitcoin right now,

0:28:29.400 --> 0:28:32.360
<v Speaker 1>thou dollars a hundred and thirty one dollar. If it's

0:28:32.400 --> 0:28:38.240
<v Speaker 1>moving around fast. You're listening to Bloomberg Business Week with

0:28:38.320 --> 0:28:43.160
<v Speaker 1>Carol Messer and Bloomberg Quick Takes Tim Stinovic on Bloomberg Radio.

0:28:43.440 --> 0:28:45.520
<v Speaker 1>We just have about ten and a half minutes left

0:28:45.560 --> 0:28:48.320
<v Speaker 1>in today's Friday trading session, so we're getting ready to

0:28:48.320 --> 0:28:50.960
<v Speaker 1>wrap up the day and the week. We're just coming

0:28:50.960 --> 0:28:53.000
<v Speaker 1>off our loads of this session. I'm looking at the

0:28:53.080 --> 0:28:54.960
<v Speaker 1>last five days. I mean, we've had quite a rally

0:28:55.000 --> 0:28:58.200
<v Speaker 1>underway this week. Yeah, we have look at that even

0:28:58.240 --> 0:29:00.280
<v Speaker 1>the month, Carol, we're up five pent this month on

0:29:00.320 --> 0:29:02.840
<v Speaker 1>the s even with being down more than one percent.

0:29:03.200 --> 0:29:05.040
<v Speaker 1>To be afraid to open up before oh one case

0:29:05.120 --> 0:29:08.960
<v Speaker 1>soon maybe maybe, I mean we're still sub forty four thousand.

0:29:09.880 --> 0:29:12.160
<v Speaker 1>Let's get into it with Michael Sheldon. He's executive director

0:29:12.160 --> 0:29:14.920
<v Speaker 1>in chiefment chief investment officer at High Tower r d

0:29:15.120 --> 0:29:18.600
<v Speaker 1>M Financial Group, joining us on the phone from Westport, Connecticut. Michael,

0:29:18.640 --> 0:29:20.880
<v Speaker 1>good to have you back with us. How are you good?

0:29:20.920 --> 0:29:23.240
<v Speaker 1>Thanks very much for having me. Okay, so tough year

0:29:24.360 --> 0:29:26.600
<v Speaker 1>two so far, but we've still got a few months left.

0:29:26.920 --> 0:29:29.160
<v Speaker 1>We've wrapped up the first half of the year. Here

0:29:29.200 --> 0:29:32.600
<v Speaker 1>we are in month seven at this point. Give us

0:29:32.600 --> 0:29:35.479
<v Speaker 1>an idea of where you're seeing opportunities right now, because

0:29:35.680 --> 0:29:37.760
<v Speaker 1>a lot of people we talked to say, hey, the choppiness,

0:29:37.920 --> 0:29:41.160
<v Speaker 1>this is going to continue. Yeah, well this week was

0:29:41.400 --> 0:29:44.040
<v Speaker 1>looking back this week, there were some encouraging signs I think,

0:29:44.320 --> 0:29:48.080
<v Speaker 1>although it's still a little early to signally all clear. Uh.

0:29:48.120 --> 0:29:51.800
<v Speaker 1>Some things we were watching this week was high beta

0:29:51.840 --> 0:29:56.720
<v Speaker 1>stocks outperformed low volatility stocks um below investment grade bonds,

0:29:56.760 --> 0:29:58.960
<v Speaker 1>so the credit side of things perked up a little bit.

0:29:59.600 --> 0:30:02.640
<v Speaker 1>We saw some better performance in semiconductor stocks and consumer

0:30:02.680 --> 0:30:06.440
<v Speaker 1>discretionary stocks, so those are all positive signs. And for

0:30:06.480 --> 0:30:09.640
<v Speaker 1>the first time since the market high in January, we

0:30:09.720 --> 0:30:13.960
<v Speaker 1>saw more than of stocks on the ny SCUM have

0:30:14.040 --> 0:30:16.400
<v Speaker 1>a positive day. So that was on Tuesday, so those

0:30:16.560 --> 0:30:19.320
<v Speaker 1>those are definitely something. Carol was off that day. Is

0:30:19.360 --> 0:30:24.040
<v Speaker 1>there any correlation there, I'll leave that to the It

0:30:24.120 --> 0:30:26.240
<v Speaker 1>is true when I'm away usually when the markets sell off,

0:30:26.280 --> 0:30:27.920
<v Speaker 1>So I don't know what happened on that day. No,

0:30:28.080 --> 0:30:30.479
<v Speaker 1>but our creedy GROUPDA talked about it earlier in the week. Right.

0:30:30.920 --> 0:30:34.600
<v Speaker 1>When we see market moves, a thin market, our little

0:30:34.600 --> 0:30:37.920
<v Speaker 1>participation either direction tells us one thing. But when we

0:30:37.960 --> 0:30:41.600
<v Speaker 1>see a broadening of breath to the upside or downside,

0:30:41.600 --> 0:30:44.160
<v Speaker 1>that tells us something significantly. And we saw broadening a

0:30:44.240 --> 0:30:47.480
<v Speaker 1>breath to the upside this week, and that's a positive. Yeah,

0:30:47.480 --> 0:30:49.360
<v Speaker 1>you're absolutely right, but I think you also have to

0:30:49.360 --> 0:30:52.080
<v Speaker 1>look at the weight of the evidence. So we're still

0:30:52.120 --> 0:30:55.600
<v Speaker 1>dealing with a lot of macro economic uncertainty. The yield

0:30:55.600 --> 0:30:58.240
<v Speaker 1>curve is inverted right now, so that's a spread between

0:30:58.320 --> 0:31:01.960
<v Speaker 1>two year and ten year notes. Unfortunately, Uh, that inversion

0:31:02.040 --> 0:31:05.680
<v Speaker 1>is historically led to weaker economic data. The dollar continued

0:31:05.880 --> 0:31:08.600
<v Speaker 1>to be fairly strong, and that's a headwind for US companies.

0:31:08.760 --> 0:31:10.600
<v Speaker 1>A lot of companies are mentioning the dollar, and the

0:31:10.640 --> 0:31:14.160
<v Speaker 1>reports and weekly jobless claims have started to trend higher

0:31:14.520 --> 0:31:16.480
<v Speaker 1>after reaching I think it was the lowest level in

0:31:16.520 --> 0:31:19.200
<v Speaker 1>fifty five years last year. So we still face some

0:31:19.240 --> 0:31:23.320
<v Speaker 1>macro economic headwinds. Um. I think as we go through

0:31:23.360 --> 0:31:27.240
<v Speaker 1>earning season, uh, so far things look okay. Starting the

0:31:27.240 --> 0:31:30.360
<v Speaker 1>second quarter earning season, earnings estimates were for about a

0:31:30.400 --> 0:31:33.400
<v Speaker 1>four percent increase and now we're at about four eight percent,

0:31:33.520 --> 0:31:36.680
<v Speaker 1>so that's pretty good. And more importantly, looking ahead to

0:31:36.840 --> 0:31:41.160
<v Speaker 1>two thousand twenty three, coming into this quarter, the earnings

0:31:41.200 --> 0:31:45.480
<v Speaker 1>estimates for next year, we're about roughly nine point four percent.

0:31:45.560 --> 0:31:48.080
<v Speaker 1>Today we're at eight point seven percent. So we are

0:31:48.160 --> 0:31:50.920
<v Speaker 1>starting to see some of the earnings estimates come down,

0:31:50.960 --> 0:31:53.160
<v Speaker 1>but not as much as you would expect considering the

0:31:53.280 --> 0:31:57.520
<v Speaker 1>uncertainty we're facing. And so, Michael, what are the reasons

0:31:57.560 --> 0:32:00.440
<v Speaker 1>where why it's still too earlate to signal the all clear?

0:32:00.520 --> 0:32:02.760
<v Speaker 1>Is it because of things that you just mentioned, including

0:32:02.800 --> 0:32:05.400
<v Speaker 1>those weekly jobless numbers coming out for the you know,

0:32:05.640 --> 0:32:09.200
<v Speaker 1>three weeks in a row. Yeah, I mean, the U. S.

0:32:09.240 --> 0:32:12.680
<v Speaker 1>Consumer represents about two thirds of the overall economy, so

0:32:12.720 --> 0:32:14.560
<v Speaker 1>it's really important to sort of have your pulse on

0:32:14.600 --> 0:32:17.880
<v Speaker 1>what's going on for the consumer. So so far this year,

0:32:17.960 --> 0:32:20.560
<v Speaker 1>the U. S. Economy has generated about four undred and

0:32:20.560 --> 0:32:23.400
<v Speaker 1>seventy five thousand jobs per month, and that's a pretty

0:32:23.400 --> 0:32:27.320
<v Speaker 1>good number. However, weekly jobs claims, as I mentioned earlier,

0:32:27.400 --> 0:32:30.120
<v Speaker 1>starting to drift higher, and that indicates, you know, you've

0:32:30.120 --> 0:32:32.880
<v Speaker 1>heard comments from a number of technology companies that they're

0:32:32.880 --> 0:32:35.840
<v Speaker 1>starting to either reduce their hirings or lay some workers off.

0:32:36.240 --> 0:32:38.760
<v Speaker 1>And another thing we watch, which is more leading, is

0:32:38.800 --> 0:32:41.360
<v Speaker 1>the Leading Economic Indicator, which came out this week, and

0:32:41.400 --> 0:32:44.040
<v Speaker 1>that's declined in five of the six five of the

0:32:44.080 --> 0:32:47.080
<v Speaker 1>past six months. And the reason that's important it tends

0:32:47.120 --> 0:32:49.960
<v Speaker 1>to sort of forecast the direction and the economy looking

0:32:50.000 --> 0:32:53.640
<v Speaker 1>ahead over the next few quarters. So right now, the

0:32:53.680 --> 0:32:56.680
<v Speaker 1>FED is laser focused on reducing inflation, and as long

0:32:56.720 --> 0:32:59.200
<v Speaker 1>as it does that, we're likely to study see somewhat

0:32:59.240 --> 0:33:02.720
<v Speaker 1>weaker economic growth before things ultimately turn around when inflation

0:33:02.840 --> 0:33:06.680
<v Speaker 1>peaks and and starts to come down when inflation peaks. Carroll, Yeah,

0:33:06.800 --> 0:33:09.040
<v Speaker 1>that's the question. Well, and the thing is, you know,

0:33:09.120 --> 0:33:11.120
<v Speaker 1>help me out here. Historically, I kind of I think

0:33:11.120 --> 0:33:13.160
<v Speaker 1>I've been reading some things that I've talked about that

0:33:13.200 --> 0:33:15.080
<v Speaker 1>once inflation does start to come down, it kind of

0:33:15.080 --> 0:33:18.360
<v Speaker 1>comes down rather quickly. Are you anticipating that that's what

0:33:18.400 --> 0:33:20.560
<v Speaker 1>we see, because I think there is also some concerns that,

0:33:20.960 --> 0:33:22.320
<v Speaker 1>you know, the FET is going to end up being

0:33:22.320 --> 0:33:26.480
<v Speaker 1>too aggressive and maybe overdoing it. But but it's but

0:33:26.560 --> 0:33:29.880
<v Speaker 1>it's not you know, an exact game or exact science here.

0:33:29.960 --> 0:33:32.400
<v Speaker 1>Right when it comes to rate moves and the impact

0:33:32.400 --> 0:33:35.520
<v Speaker 1>on inflation, how quickly it comes down, Well, that's that's

0:33:35.520 --> 0:33:38.160
<v Speaker 1>the challenging thing for investors and for the markets. Right now,

0:33:38.440 --> 0:33:40.920
<v Speaker 1>we are starting to see some signs that inflation is peaking.

0:33:40.960 --> 0:33:43.440
<v Speaker 1>I mean, right now, inflation the CPI number is at

0:33:43.440 --> 0:33:46.520
<v Speaker 1>about nine point one, which is the highest level since

0:33:47.560 --> 0:33:49.640
<v Speaker 1>one so we're at forty year high. So a lot

0:33:49.640 --> 0:33:52.120
<v Speaker 1>of investors in the market today haven't seen this kind

0:33:52.120 --> 0:33:54.800
<v Speaker 1>of inflation. But I think we're starting to see some

0:33:54.840 --> 0:33:59.080
<v Speaker 1>signs that inflation maybe peeking. For example, the job market

0:33:59.120 --> 0:34:01.800
<v Speaker 1>is starting to soften a little bit. Commodity prices are

0:34:01.800 --> 0:34:05.640
<v Speaker 1>starting to come down, whether you look at things like copper, lumber, steel,

0:34:06.160 --> 0:34:08.760
<v Speaker 1>and the housing market is also showing signs is flowing.

0:34:09.320 --> 0:34:12.120
<v Speaker 1>Rate rates overseas for shipping goods are starting to soften.

0:34:12.400 --> 0:34:15.200
<v Speaker 1>So you put this all together, and it seems likely

0:34:15.239 --> 0:34:19.600
<v Speaker 1>that we should start to see softer economic, softer inflation

0:34:19.680 --> 0:34:24.120
<v Speaker 1>data as we head through the fall. Well what about

0:34:24.120 --> 0:34:26.400
<v Speaker 1>peak inflation here? We just heard from Steve Matthews in

0:34:26.400 --> 0:34:29.160
<v Speaker 1>our Atlanta bureau, and he's got this survey of Bloomberg

0:34:29.200 --> 0:34:32.520
<v Speaker 1>economists who are essentially saying that, okay, expect to seventy

0:34:32.719 --> 0:34:34.799
<v Speaker 1>basis point rate next week, but then we're gonna start

0:34:34.840 --> 0:34:36.520
<v Speaker 1>to see the Fed put the brakes on a little bit.

0:34:36.520 --> 0:34:37.520
<v Speaker 1>Do you start to do you think we're going to

0:34:37.560 --> 0:34:40.400
<v Speaker 1>see a cut in twenty three? You know, it's interesting

0:34:40.440 --> 0:34:42.880
<v Speaker 1>you hear more and more economists actually calling for a

0:34:42.920 --> 0:34:45.799
<v Speaker 1>peak in rates at the end of December. So that means,

0:34:45.840 --> 0:34:47.640
<v Speaker 1>as you said, so we're likely to when the FED

0:34:47.680 --> 0:34:50.000
<v Speaker 1>meets next week, we're likely to see another seventy five

0:34:50.000 --> 0:34:53.000
<v Speaker 1>basis points an increase, so that would leave short term

0:34:53.080 --> 0:34:55.319
<v Speaker 1>rates at about two and a half percent. And then

0:34:55.360 --> 0:34:57.920
<v Speaker 1>we have three more meetings, so we could have a

0:34:57.920 --> 0:35:01.680
<v Speaker 1>half point increase in September, I mean three, and then

0:35:01.719 --> 0:35:05.560
<v Speaker 1>maybe two more quarter point rate hikes. Uh, and in

0:35:05.600 --> 0:35:07.359
<v Speaker 1>the last two months of the year, which would leave

0:35:07.440 --> 0:35:10.400
<v Speaker 1>rates at about three and a half percent at that point.

0:35:10.400 --> 0:35:13.480
<v Speaker 1>I mean, that's that's an eternity from now uh looking

0:35:13.480 --> 0:35:16.080
<v Speaker 1>at the markets, but at that point we could very

0:35:16.120 --> 0:35:18.320
<v Speaker 1>well be in for a pause. It sort of depends

0:35:18.320 --> 0:35:21.279
<v Speaker 1>a lot on the incoming economic data, and the FED

0:35:21.400 --> 0:35:23.840
<v Speaker 1>is continued to say the monitoring the data. Yeah, I

0:35:23.840 --> 0:35:25.760
<v Speaker 1>feel like this is going to be an important meeting

0:35:25.760 --> 0:35:28.200
<v Speaker 1>in terms of if we do see j Powell starting

0:35:28.239 --> 0:35:30.040
<v Speaker 1>to talk down that maybe you know, they could they

0:35:30.080 --> 0:35:31.719
<v Speaker 1>could be a little bit less aggressive, but we will

0:35:31.760 --> 0:35:34.200
<v Speaker 1>we will know in about five days time from now. Hey,

0:35:34.239 --> 0:35:37.400
<v Speaker 1>Michael Sheldon, thank you, Executive director, chief investment Officer at

0:35:37.440 --> 0:35:40.160
<v Speaker 1>High Tower r DM Financial Group, joining us once again

0:35:40.200 --> 0:35:43.920
<v Speaker 1>on the phone from Westport, Connecticut. Thanks for listening to

0:35:43.960 --> 0:35:47.520
<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Business Week. Download the podcast on iTunes, SoundCloud, or

0:35:47.560 --> 0:35:49.719
<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg dot com, and you can also listen to our

0:35:49.800 --> 0:35:52.400
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0:35:52.400 --> 0:35:55.120
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