1
00:00:01,520 --> 00:00:05,040
Speaker 1: The Action Network Podcast Podcast.

2
00:00:05,760 --> 00:00:08,920
Speaker 2: If you are even remotely a savage, you'll run these

3
00:00:09,000 --> 00:00:21,960
Speaker 2: people over for a second.

4
00:00:27,200 --> 00:00:31,400
Speaker 1: Welcome to the Action Network Podcast, presented by the FanDuel Sportsbook.

5
00:00:31,400 --> 00:00:35,240
Speaker 1: I'm your host Brendan Glasheen, joined by Sean Zarillo, Action

6
00:00:35,360 --> 00:00:39,800
Speaker 1: Network Senior writer and Billy ward Our MMA analyst. Yup,

7
00:00:39,880 --> 00:00:44,040
Speaker 1: that's right. UFC Betting Preview. We're not taking any breaks

8
00:00:44,240 --> 00:00:48,680
Speaker 1: after an electric weekend of action a UFC two ninety

9
00:00:48,680 --> 00:00:50,440
Speaker 1: one in Salt Lake City, or right back at it

10
00:00:50,479 --> 00:00:55,160
Speaker 1: for UFC Nashville from the Bridgestone Arena in Tennessee. Six

11
00:00:55,280 --> 00:00:57,520
Speaker 1: fights on the main card, six prelims. You can catch

12
00:00:57,560 --> 00:01:00,800
Speaker 1: all of the action on ESPN, so we can watch

13
00:01:00,800 --> 00:01:03,480
Speaker 1: all the fights the ESPN family of networks. We're looking

14
00:01:03,520 --> 00:01:06,600
Speaker 1: at underdogs, props, and more. We'll get to best bets

15
00:01:06,600 --> 00:01:09,440
Speaker 1: before we leave, as we normally do. We will start

16
00:01:09,480 --> 00:01:13,240
Speaker 1: with the main event. It's a top ten matchup two

17
00:01:13,240 --> 00:01:17,920
Speaker 1: title contenders, Corey Sandhagan and Rob Font. Sandagan Zerillo is

18
00:01:17,959 --> 00:01:22,039
Speaker 1: the favorite over at FanDuel minus three seventy down of

19
00:01:22,040 --> 00:01:24,560
Speaker 1: minus three fifty five actually at Fandel Rob Font As

20
00:01:24,600 --> 00:01:27,920
Speaker 1: we record on a Friday morning at plus seventy So

21
00:01:27,959 --> 00:01:31,400
Speaker 1: when you break this one down, let's assess the fight first,

22
00:01:31,560 --> 00:01:33,280
Speaker 1: and how would you like to bet it?

23
00:01:33,880 --> 00:01:36,080
Speaker 3: Yeah, so, first of all, this is taking place at

24
00:01:36,120 --> 00:01:38,000
Speaker 3: one hundred and forty pound catchwaight, and I'm trying to

25
00:01:38,000 --> 00:01:39,840
Speaker 3: decipher who I think that that helps more. I think

26
00:01:39,840 --> 00:01:44,480
Speaker 3: it certainly helps the cardio for both guys, and maybe

27
00:01:44,480 --> 00:01:47,520
Speaker 3: in terms of overall strength, it might help Corey Sandhagen

28
00:01:47,560 --> 00:01:49,920
Speaker 3: a bit, just because he's the taller guy, and it

29
00:01:49,920 --> 00:01:51,600
Speaker 3: seems like he might have to cut a little bit

30
00:01:51,640 --> 00:01:53,880
Speaker 3: more weight typically in order to make one hundred and

31
00:01:53,880 --> 00:01:57,360
Speaker 3: thirty five pounds. So not necessarily sure who I think

32
00:01:57,640 --> 00:02:00,520
Speaker 3: the catchweight is going to benefit, but just we're noting

33
00:02:00,760 --> 00:02:02,760
Speaker 3: both of these guys, typically cut to one thirty five

34
00:02:02,920 --> 00:02:05,760
Speaker 3: don't have to cut quite as much weight in terms

35
00:02:05,760 --> 00:02:08,880
Speaker 3: of Saturday's fight, which should help both their durability and

36
00:02:08,919 --> 00:02:11,800
Speaker 3: their cardio. Now, both guys in general have elite cardio

37
00:02:11,880 --> 00:02:15,359
Speaker 3: to begin with, and their elite output offensive strikers who

38
00:02:15,400 --> 00:02:18,120
Speaker 3: tend to outland their opponents by about two to two

39
00:02:18,120 --> 00:02:21,400
Speaker 3: and a half strikes per minute, So across a twenty

40
00:02:21,440 --> 00:02:24,160
Speaker 3: five minute boxing fight, I think this could be very close.

41
00:02:24,800 --> 00:02:27,600
Speaker 3: Rob font is the better boxer fights behind a jab,

42
00:02:27,800 --> 00:02:29,760
Speaker 3: and he has a one inch reach advantage here, so

43
00:02:29,800 --> 00:02:32,000
Speaker 3: he's going to be able to stick that jab in

44
00:02:32,080 --> 00:02:35,800
Speaker 3: Corey Sanhagan's face. While he's doing so, Corey's going to

45
00:02:35,800 --> 00:02:38,160
Speaker 3: be trying to set up kicks instead of some dynamic

46
00:02:38,240 --> 00:02:42,480
Speaker 3: strike attempts, flying knees, spinning kicks. So Cory, the more

47
00:02:42,560 --> 00:02:45,680
Speaker 3: dynamic striker, the more diverse striker. But I think Rob's

48
00:02:45,680 --> 00:02:48,600
Speaker 3: technique is just slightly more refined, and especially when they're

49
00:02:48,639 --> 00:02:50,440
Speaker 3: standing in the pocket and as they go down the

50
00:02:50,480 --> 00:02:53,840
Speaker 3: stretch and they're getting a little bit tired, I trust

51
00:02:53,919 --> 00:02:58,440
Speaker 3: Rob's style in terms of landing head strikes, backing Cory

52
00:02:58,560 --> 00:03:02,160
Speaker 3: up landing counters Corey is coming in. I actually just

53
00:03:02,160 --> 00:03:04,799
Speaker 3: think Robin general has the better box to get the

54
00:03:04,800 --> 00:03:06,680
Speaker 3: better hands, and in terms of playing to the judges

55
00:03:06,680 --> 00:03:09,919
Speaker 3: and giving them good optics for damage, he might hit

56
00:03:09,960 --> 00:03:12,240
Speaker 3: a little bit harder too, So Rob font can make

57
00:03:12,280 --> 00:03:14,880
Speaker 3: this fight very close if they're going to be kickboxing

58
00:03:14,880 --> 00:03:17,160
Speaker 3: for twenty five minutes. I think the reason why you

59
00:03:17,160 --> 00:03:20,800
Speaker 3: see Corey san Haagen favored so drastically could be the

60
00:03:20,840 --> 00:03:23,280
Speaker 3: grappling upside. We've seen him grapple more in the past.

61
00:03:23,320 --> 00:03:26,360
Speaker 3: Offensively wrestle's opponents get him down to the ground, use

62
00:03:26,400 --> 00:03:28,640
Speaker 3: the cage push, put him up against the fence as

63
00:03:28,639 --> 00:03:31,960
Speaker 3: he did at cheeto Vera. So there's a potential that

64
00:03:32,040 --> 00:03:34,520
Speaker 3: Corey Sanhagen can dominate minutes here with the grappling. But

65
00:03:34,880 --> 00:03:36,839
Speaker 3: I think Rob Font does a great grappler too, and

66
00:03:36,920 --> 00:03:38,760
Speaker 3: I don't think it's out of the realm of possibility

67
00:03:38,760 --> 00:03:41,400
Speaker 3: that he lands offensive takedowns of his owner gets top

68
00:03:41,440 --> 00:03:44,840
Speaker 3: time either, and I actually prefer his offensive submission games.

69
00:03:44,880 --> 00:03:47,520
Speaker 3: So Rob Font has a number of ways to win

70
00:03:47,520 --> 00:03:51,720
Speaker 3: this fight considering his price tag, but mostly if this

71
00:03:51,760 --> 00:03:54,400
Speaker 3: one goes for full twenty five minutes, I think he's

72
00:03:54,520 --> 00:03:57,520
Speaker 3: probably a forty percent underdog at worse. If not, this

73
00:03:57,560 --> 00:03:59,600
Speaker 3: fight should be a pick him. So in the decision

74
00:03:59,720 --> 00:04:02,600
Speaker 3: only market you can get Rob fon at about post

75
00:04:02,600 --> 00:04:05,560
Speaker 3: T twenty five. I believe Corey Sanagan is minus three hundred,

76
00:04:06,360 --> 00:04:09,720
Speaker 3: kind of similar to their money line pricing. Strongly disagree

77
00:04:09,720 --> 00:04:12,280
Speaker 3: with that. I give Sanagan more finishing upside. I think

78
00:04:12,320 --> 00:04:15,000
Speaker 3: Font has just as much, if not more, decision equities,

79
00:04:15,000 --> 00:04:17,960
Speaker 3: So Font decision only past TA twenty five. How I'm

80
00:04:17,960 --> 00:04:20,840
Speaker 3: betting this. I'm also considering, though, just taking his money

81
00:04:20,839 --> 00:04:21,520
Speaker 3: line straight up?

82
00:04:23,120 --> 00:04:25,520
Speaker 1: All right, very good, And you noted the heights Sanagan

83
00:04:25,600 --> 00:04:28,760
Speaker 1: five eleven, Font five to eight, and as Zarrillo noted

84
00:04:28,800 --> 00:04:34,159
Speaker 1: some edges potentially for Font and how he might approach Sanhagan. Billy,

85
00:04:34,160 --> 00:04:36,480
Speaker 1: how about yourself? Billy Ward is the author of the

86
00:04:36,600 --> 00:04:39,120
Speaker 1: UFC luck ratings. He's got some breakdowns of other fights

87
00:04:39,160 --> 00:04:41,800
Speaker 1: as well on the action app Action network dot com.

88
00:04:42,240 --> 00:04:43,680
Speaker 1: How do you see this one playing out, Billy? And

89
00:04:43,720 --> 00:04:44,599
Speaker 1: how would you like to bet it?

90
00:04:45,800 --> 00:04:46,040
Speaker 4: Yeah?

91
00:04:46,080 --> 00:04:49,040
Speaker 5: I would one hundred percent agree with Sorillo if this

92
00:04:49,240 --> 00:04:51,000
Speaker 5: was a normal fight where they both had a full

93
00:04:51,040 --> 00:04:53,479
Speaker 5: training camp and there weren't some other factors here. You know,

94
00:04:53,520 --> 00:04:55,880
Speaker 5: Sean mentioned that it was one hundred and forty pound Catchwaight.

95
00:04:56,120 --> 00:04:58,120
Speaker 5: The reason that's one hundred and forty pound Catchwaight is

96
00:04:58,200 --> 00:05:00,360
Speaker 5: Cory Sandagan was originally supposed to fight.

97
00:05:00,320 --> 00:05:02,840
Speaker 4: Umar and Normaga madeoff. Umar pulled out.

98
00:05:03,240 --> 00:05:05,240
Speaker 5: Rob Font was supposed to fight two weeks from now

99
00:05:05,320 --> 00:05:07,719
Speaker 5: at UFC two ninety two. They moved him up to

100
00:05:07,800 --> 00:05:10,599
Speaker 5: this card and then they gave him the extra five pounds.

101
00:05:10,839 --> 00:05:14,080
Speaker 5: I think that weight cut benefits sand Haagen for that reason,

102
00:05:14,160 --> 00:05:17,400
Speaker 5: because Font, in terms of actual water cut is probably

103
00:05:17,440 --> 00:05:19,560
Speaker 5: cutting about the same amount he normally does. In those

104
00:05:19,600 --> 00:05:21,480
Speaker 5: next two weeks, he would have lost about five more

105
00:05:21,480 --> 00:05:24,080
Speaker 5: pounds of body weight, So the water cut isn't any

106
00:05:24,160 --> 00:05:26,120
Speaker 5: lesser for Font than it would be in a normal fight.

107
00:05:26,480 --> 00:05:29,880
Speaker 5: Sandhagan was preparing to make one thirty five this event anyway,

108
00:05:30,160 --> 00:05:31,960
Speaker 5: he just gets an extra five pounds to play with

109
00:05:32,080 --> 00:05:34,240
Speaker 5: and feel better about, so that one is one for

110
00:05:34,320 --> 00:05:37,320
Speaker 5: sand Haagen. Also, Font was originally preparing for a three

111
00:05:37,440 --> 00:05:39,640
Speaker 5: round fight. This is a five round fight because it's

112
00:05:39,640 --> 00:05:43,560
Speaker 5: a main event. He does have a good cardio generally speaking,

113
00:05:43,680 --> 00:05:46,039
Speaker 5: but that's a lot that makes it tough between the

114
00:05:46,080 --> 00:05:48,400
Speaker 5: weight and you know, moving when you're peaking for your

115
00:05:48,400 --> 00:05:51,120
Speaker 5: training camp and all that stuff. I don't really like that,

116
00:05:51,600 --> 00:05:53,080
Speaker 5: but I do like a skill set for many of

117
00:05:53,120 --> 00:05:55,279
Speaker 5: the reasons. Zerila said. So I'm going to take a

118
00:05:55,320 --> 00:05:59,000
Speaker 5: small sprinkle sprinkle at Rob Font in round one. He's

119
00:05:59,040 --> 00:06:01,239
Speaker 5: won two of his last three wins with first round knockouts.

120
00:06:01,240 --> 00:06:03,839
Speaker 5: I think he's the much more powerful striker here. Where

121
00:06:03,920 --> 00:06:06,000
Speaker 5: Sanagan gets a finish, it's going to be volume down

122
00:06:06,040 --> 00:06:08,320
Speaker 5: the stretch. I also like under four and a half

123
00:06:08,320 --> 00:06:11,920
Speaker 5: at minus one eighteen, kind of similar to a lot

124
00:06:11,920 --> 00:06:13,680
Speaker 5: of the reasons. Earl said, just these guys put on

125
00:06:13,720 --> 00:06:16,240
Speaker 5: such an output that I don't think fn is able

126
00:06:16,320 --> 00:06:18,080
Speaker 5: to go twenty five minutes if he doesn't get the

127
00:06:18,080 --> 00:06:21,480
Speaker 5: finish early, you know, late stoppage from Sanhagan cuts just

128
00:06:21,560 --> 00:06:23,400
Speaker 5: kind of beating him up, wearing him down over three,

129
00:06:23,480 --> 00:06:26,120
Speaker 5: four or five rounds. That's how I see this one

130
00:06:26,120 --> 00:06:28,560
Speaker 5: playing out if Font doesn't stop it. Obviously, you know

131
00:06:28,640 --> 00:06:30,680
Speaker 5: Font round one is plus nineteen hundred. I'm not saying

132
00:06:30,680 --> 00:06:33,440
Speaker 5: about a full unit on this little sprinkle there, and

133
00:06:33,480 --> 00:06:35,240
Speaker 5: then you know, maybe half a unit or about to

134
00:06:35,279 --> 00:06:37,400
Speaker 5: win half a unit on the under, just because I

135
00:06:37,440 --> 00:06:39,280
Speaker 5: don't think Fonz Cardio is able to hold up the

136
00:06:39,279 --> 00:06:41,520
Speaker 5: whole time if he doesn't get an early finish. And

137
00:06:41,560 --> 00:06:44,320
Speaker 5: if i'm Rob Font or in Rob fons camp, I'm saying,

138
00:06:44,360 --> 00:06:46,080
Speaker 5: let's go out there finish this one. In the first

139
00:06:46,080 --> 00:06:48,400
Speaker 5: couple of rounds. We know we probably don't have twenty

140
00:06:48,400 --> 00:06:50,279
Speaker 5: five minutes a guest tank this time.

141
00:06:51,000 --> 00:06:53,080
Speaker 3: One more point I want to make, just regards the

142
00:06:53,160 --> 00:06:56,120
Speaker 3: damage in Font's face and Billy betting the under, so

143
00:06:56,160 --> 00:06:58,400
Speaker 3: I had initially lean to the the over here in

144
00:06:58,440 --> 00:07:00,320
Speaker 3: that goes the distance. The reason why I didn't at

145
00:07:00,320 --> 00:07:03,520
Speaker 3: rewatching the Adrian Indianez fight with Rob Font. He has

146
00:07:03,560 --> 00:07:05,520
Speaker 3: a lot of scar tissue under his eyes and he

147
00:07:05,600 --> 00:07:08,279
Speaker 3: got hit like twice from Adriannez and his eye ballooned

148
00:07:08,360 --> 00:07:11,600
Speaker 3: up immediately. I think there's a strong chance, especially over

149
00:07:11,640 --> 00:07:13,920
Speaker 3: the course of twenty five minutes with both of these

150
00:07:13,960 --> 00:07:17,840
Speaker 3: guys throwing a lot of strikes, that there is a

151
00:07:18,120 --> 00:07:22,840
Speaker 3: damage based vision doctor stoppage for Rob Font, just damage

152
00:07:22,840 --> 00:07:23,280
Speaker 3: around that.

153
00:07:23,360 --> 00:07:23,520
Speaker 1: Iye.

154
00:07:23,560 --> 00:07:26,240
Speaker 3: It seems like he just hasn't given his face a

155
00:07:26,240 --> 00:07:28,240
Speaker 3: ton of time to heal up or I mean, he

156
00:07:28,280 --> 00:07:30,480
Speaker 3: took a year off before the adrian Z fight, so

157
00:07:30,720 --> 00:07:33,880
Speaker 3: you know, his face got melted. In the Marlin Vera fight,

158
00:07:34,080 --> 00:07:36,240
Speaker 3: he got knocked down multiple times. It seemed like every

159
00:07:36,400 --> 00:07:37,760
Speaker 3: time he was getting touched to the end of the

160
00:07:37,760 --> 00:07:42,040
Speaker 3: fight his face was breaking and then it immediately swelled

161
00:07:42,120 --> 00:07:45,600
Speaker 3: up in three minutes against Adrianiez. So I think a

162
00:07:46,640 --> 00:07:49,840
Speaker 3: doctor stoppage is actually very possible here too, and that

163
00:07:49,920 --> 00:07:52,480
Speaker 3: factored into my analysis in terms of betting the the

164
00:07:52,560 --> 00:07:54,200
Speaker 3: under the over, and why I passed in the over.

165
00:07:54,280 --> 00:07:56,240
Speaker 3: So yeah, I would agree with Billy and leaning to

166
00:07:56,280 --> 00:07:58,040
Speaker 3: the under. I think the pace will be high similar

167
00:07:58,040 --> 00:08:01,000
Speaker 3: to the gay Chee POI fight know, very high paced,

168
00:08:01,040 --> 00:08:04,440
Speaker 3: lots of striking volume. Two guys who are somewhat durable.

169
00:08:04,600 --> 00:08:06,440
Speaker 3: I don't believe either has ever been knocked out, but

170
00:08:06,480 --> 00:08:09,200
Speaker 3: Fob has been. Font has been club and subs He's

171
00:08:09,200 --> 00:08:11,320
Speaker 3: been knocked down in the past, So he's the less

172
00:08:11,400 --> 00:08:14,240
Speaker 3: durable guy, and I think that's another reason why Cory's favored.

173
00:08:16,600 --> 00:08:19,640
Speaker 5: San Jagan's a guy with you know, long elbows, long knees,

174
00:08:19,680 --> 00:08:22,560
Speaker 5: long limbs, who cuts people like he has a two

175
00:08:22,560 --> 00:08:25,400
Speaker 5: fights ago he stopped sawing it down via cut like. Yeah,

176
00:08:25,520 --> 00:08:28,400
Speaker 5: that's very much part of his game plan all the time,

177
00:08:28,680 --> 00:08:30,640
Speaker 5: I would imagine, especially so knowing you.

178
00:08:30,600 --> 00:08:33,040
Speaker 4: Fight a guy like Font who wears that damage pretty poorly.

179
00:08:34,280 --> 00:08:39,360
Speaker 1: Isreal Any thought or responsibility about the the schedule change

180
00:08:39,800 --> 00:08:42,640
Speaker 1: and how Font had to kind of get thrown into this.

181
00:08:42,800 --> 00:08:44,200
Speaker 1: He was supposed to fight two weeks from now, but

182
00:08:44,240 --> 00:08:44,880
Speaker 1: that's not happening.

183
00:08:45,120 --> 00:08:46,520
Speaker 3: No, that's why, you know, That's why I linked to

184
00:08:46,520 --> 00:08:48,719
Speaker 3: the cardio advantage for San Hegan, on top of the

185
00:08:48,760 --> 00:08:50,720
Speaker 3: fact that he's also a few years younger too.

186
00:08:51,200 --> 00:08:53,440
Speaker 1: Right, but fair Menger's thirty one.

187
00:08:53,800 --> 00:08:56,439
Speaker 3: Font set a record number of strikes in his twenty

188
00:08:56,440 --> 00:08:58,040
Speaker 3: five minute fight against his a al though, but he

189
00:08:58,120 --> 00:09:00,840
Speaker 3: was knocked down or wabbled multiple times that fight, and

190
00:09:00,920 --> 00:09:03,800
Speaker 3: even though he had the biggest striking discrepancy ever in

191
00:09:03,840 --> 00:09:06,439
Speaker 3: a twenty five minute loss and maintain that volume across

192
00:09:06,480 --> 00:09:09,520
Speaker 3: twenty five minutes, the optics thing is a bit weird

193
00:09:09,520 --> 00:09:12,200
Speaker 3: with him. He gets doesn't present the best body language

194
00:09:12,200 --> 00:09:14,120
Speaker 3: for the judges at times. He doesn't wear damage on

195
00:09:14,160 --> 00:09:17,360
Speaker 3: his face particularly well. So you know, there's a lot

196
00:09:17,400 --> 00:09:19,520
Speaker 3: of reasons on top of his Billy said the fact

197
00:09:19,520 --> 00:09:22,000
Speaker 3: that his schedule changed where san Haagen's still on the

198
00:09:22,040 --> 00:09:26,880
Speaker 3: same schedule that would favor san Haagen. I just I'm

199
00:09:26,920 --> 00:09:29,920
Speaker 3: pretty convinced if it does go twenty five minutes, it's

200
00:09:29,960 --> 00:09:32,280
Speaker 3: going to look closer than minus three hundred and plus

201
00:09:32,360 --> 00:09:34,040
Speaker 3: T twenty five. So that's why I'm going with the

202
00:09:34,080 --> 00:09:37,000
Speaker 3: decision only market, just because I know I pretty much

203
00:09:37,080 --> 00:09:39,440
Speaker 3: know for a fact, if font is surviving twenty five minutes,

204
00:09:39,600 --> 00:09:40,880
Speaker 3: it means he made as competitive.

205
00:09:41,200 --> 00:09:45,160
Speaker 1: Okay, very good to move on to underdogs. Zarrillo. I

206
00:09:45,160 --> 00:09:47,640
Speaker 1: think you've got a couple that you've targeted overall. I

207
00:09:47,679 --> 00:09:50,439
Speaker 1: would imagine if you've got multiple dogs that you might

208
00:09:50,440 --> 00:09:51,880
Speaker 1: think this is a good week for dogs that you

209
00:09:51,960 --> 00:09:52,720
Speaker 1: have seen Nashville.

210
00:09:52,880 --> 00:09:54,280
Speaker 3: Yeah, I think this is a good week for underdogs

211
00:09:54,280 --> 00:09:55,920
Speaker 3: and a good week for live betting. The reason why

212
00:09:55,960 --> 00:09:58,800
Speaker 3: I wanted to mention how many barcellos at plus one

213
00:09:58,880 --> 00:10:01,880
Speaker 3: seventy five is because there's so many reasons why I

214
00:10:01,920 --> 00:10:04,480
Speaker 3: should not be making this kind of a bet. He's

215
00:10:04,520 --> 00:10:06,800
Speaker 3: eight years older. We talk about the age of the discrepancy

216
00:10:06,840 --> 00:10:10,000
Speaker 3: factor all the time, so probably overvalued in the market.

217
00:10:10,840 --> 00:10:14,680
Speaker 3: He's fighting a guy who is faster than him, who

218
00:10:14,720 --> 00:10:19,160
Speaker 3: probably has the grappling upside in theory. And also he

219
00:10:19,320 --> 00:10:21,839
Speaker 3: was coming off of a very bad knockout loss after

220
00:10:21,960 --> 00:10:24,120
Speaker 3: not being knocked out in his career, and he's old

221
00:10:24,160 --> 00:10:25,800
Speaker 3: for the one hundred and thirty five pound divisions. So

222
00:10:25,800 --> 00:10:27,400
Speaker 3: there's a lot of reasons why I should not be

223
00:10:27,400 --> 00:10:31,000
Speaker 3: betting County Burchella's I do think his opponent, though, Kyler Phillips,

224
00:10:31,040 --> 00:10:34,760
Speaker 3: has a bit overrated based off of his past wins,

225
00:10:34,920 --> 00:10:38,160
Speaker 3: his past record. He also tends to gas out after

226
00:10:38,200 --> 00:10:40,360
Speaker 3: about seven to ten minutes because he's very explosive and

227
00:10:40,400 --> 00:10:41,920
Speaker 3: does a lot of stuff. But I think Howdie is

228
00:10:41,960 --> 00:10:45,360
Speaker 3: actually if he's still there and he's not fallen off

229
00:10:45,400 --> 00:10:48,080
Speaker 3: of a cliff Athletically, I think he's actually the perfect

230
00:10:48,120 --> 00:10:52,360
Speaker 3: kryptonite for somebody with phillips insane style. Hownie Barcellis is

231
00:10:52,360 --> 00:10:55,160
Speaker 3: one of the most well rounded mixed martial artists to

232
00:10:55,200 --> 00:10:57,520
Speaker 3: ever enter the UFC. He just came over to MMA

233
00:10:57,600 --> 00:11:00,959
Speaker 3: pretty late, but he's a Brazilian national wrestling champion. A

234
00:11:01,000 --> 00:11:03,679
Speaker 3: lot of these guys who have great jiu jitsu are

235
00:11:03,720 --> 00:11:07,360
Speaker 3: not good wrestlers. Howney Barcello's actually can combine the wrestling

236
00:11:07,440 --> 00:11:09,920
Speaker 3: with the grappling. So even though Phillips in theory has

237
00:11:09,960 --> 00:11:13,040
Speaker 3: the grappling upside, I think Honey Barcellis is a better grappler.

238
00:11:13,320 --> 00:11:15,800
Speaker 3: I think the striking is going to be competitive. Phillips

239
00:11:15,840 --> 00:11:18,480
Speaker 3: probably has more volume, but how many has more power?

240
00:11:18,559 --> 00:11:21,760
Speaker 3: So yeah, this to me plus one seventy five a

241
00:11:21,800 --> 00:11:24,400
Speaker 3: bet that I was a bit skeptical to make based

242
00:11:24,400 --> 00:11:26,960
Speaker 3: on all the factors I laid out initially, but this

243
00:11:27,040 --> 00:11:30,319
Speaker 3: skill discrepancy, I think Howney is actually the better fighter,

244
00:11:30,400 --> 00:11:32,760
Speaker 3: So plus one seventy five a bet I made, not

245
00:11:32,800 --> 00:11:35,559
Speaker 3: a bet I love based on the age, the reach,

246
00:11:35,720 --> 00:11:39,160
Speaker 3: et cetera. And then the other underdog who I like

247
00:11:39,280 --> 00:11:41,240
Speaker 3: before we get to My best bet later is Alexa

248
00:11:41,320 --> 00:11:45,120
Speaker 3: Kaimer at plus one thirty five, limited MMA experience, only

249
00:11:45,160 --> 00:11:48,360
Speaker 3: eight fights, going against Tanner Boser, who dropped down from

250
00:11:48,400 --> 00:11:50,840
Speaker 3: heavyweight in his last fight and was knocked out by

251
00:11:51,400 --> 00:11:54,480
Speaker 3: Ian Kudulaba, and he just looked so slow and so fragile.

252
00:11:54,600 --> 00:11:57,400
Speaker 3: I think the biggest advantage Boser had at heavyweight was

253
00:11:58,640 --> 00:11:59,920
Speaker 3: speed to a degree.

254
00:12:00,200 --> 00:12:00,679
Speaker 4: He was on the.

255
00:12:00,600 --> 00:12:03,960
Speaker 3: Smaller side for heavyweight, but mostly his cardio and now

256
00:12:04,000 --> 00:12:08,760
Speaker 3: cutting down to two o five, taking that stamina somewhat

257
00:12:08,760 --> 00:12:11,240
Speaker 3: to a degree out of himself, taking that durability away

258
00:12:11,240 --> 00:12:14,679
Speaker 3: two degree going against guys who have a comparable level

259
00:12:14,679 --> 00:12:17,480
Speaker 3: of power as he does, and arguably I'd say Camer

260
00:12:17,559 --> 00:12:19,800
Speaker 3: has the faster hand, So gim me Kamer plus one

261
00:12:19,800 --> 00:12:22,280
Speaker 3: thirty five. Not really sure if Boser is going to

262
00:12:22,320 --> 00:12:23,880
Speaker 3: be able to take a punch at all at two

263
00:12:23,880 --> 00:12:26,240
Speaker 3: o five. He wasn't his last fight. May be able

264
00:12:26,240 --> 00:12:28,080
Speaker 3: to hear, but I don't think his cardio was going

265
00:12:28,120 --> 00:12:29,520
Speaker 3: to hold up as well as he did either. Even

266
00:12:29,520 --> 00:12:29,960
Speaker 3: if he does.

267
00:12:31,559 --> 00:12:33,920
Speaker 1: Camer's number down to plus one thirty four at FanDuel Billy,

268
00:12:33,960 --> 00:12:36,000
Speaker 1: I know you don't have a pick on this necessarily,

269
00:12:36,040 --> 00:12:39,000
Speaker 1: but you actually think Boser is undervalue based on your

270
00:12:39,080 --> 00:12:41,320
Speaker 1: luck ratings right up. Just curious your response to that.

271
00:12:42,160 --> 00:12:43,520
Speaker 4: Yeah, I do a little bit.

272
00:12:43,600 --> 00:12:46,360
Speaker 5: It's more that I'm projecting him to have made more

273
00:12:46,360 --> 00:12:48,320
Speaker 5: improvements as he gets used to the weight class at

274
00:12:48,320 --> 00:12:50,320
Speaker 5: two o five. I'm a fan of some of these

275
00:12:50,400 --> 00:12:53,120
Speaker 5: kind of like chubby, out of shape heavyweights. Actually putting

276
00:12:53,120 --> 00:12:54,840
Speaker 5: in the work and cutting to two o five. I

277
00:12:54,840 --> 00:12:57,160
Speaker 5: think it forces him to train harder, right, because they're

278
00:12:57,200 --> 00:12:59,079
Speaker 5: not the guy who can just skip.

279
00:12:58,840 --> 00:13:01,319
Speaker 4: Cardio whatever you want, all that stuff that they used

280
00:13:01,360 --> 00:13:01,560
Speaker 4: to be.

281
00:13:02,200 --> 00:13:03,880
Speaker 5: And yeah, he didn't look great the first one, but

282
00:13:03,920 --> 00:13:07,240
Speaker 5: he was thrown to an absolute murderer in Kutalaba, and

283
00:13:07,400 --> 00:13:09,280
Speaker 5: you know, maybe that weight cut the first time didn't

284
00:13:09,280 --> 00:13:11,440
Speaker 5: go as well as we can expect it to go

285
00:13:11,640 --> 00:13:12,520
Speaker 5: the next couple of times.

286
00:13:12,600 --> 00:13:14,520
Speaker 4: So I'm not betting this one.

287
00:13:14,559 --> 00:13:17,240
Speaker 5: I wasn't able to convince myself I'm Boser, but I

288
00:13:17,280 --> 00:13:20,400
Speaker 5: really want to believe that makes sense, Like I'm not

289
00:13:20,480 --> 00:13:22,679
Speaker 5: quite there yet, but I want good things. I want

290
00:13:22,760 --> 00:13:24,280
Speaker 5: him to be rewarded for putting in the work to

291
00:13:24,280 --> 00:13:26,640
Speaker 5: go to two o five. And then one more thing

292
00:13:26,679 --> 00:13:29,880
Speaker 5: on Barcelo's because Zulla did convince me there. I think

293
00:13:29,920 --> 00:13:31,760
Speaker 5: this is the only fight on the card that is

294
00:13:31,800 --> 00:13:34,440
Speaker 5: actually favored to go to a decision, and if we

295
00:13:34,480 --> 00:13:36,880
Speaker 5: expect a decision, we always want the underdog ticket. Like

296
00:13:37,160 --> 00:13:39,719
Speaker 5: you were saying with font, I don't want to be

297
00:13:39,760 --> 00:13:41,920
Speaker 5: holding a minus money ticket in a fight that went

298
00:13:41,920 --> 00:13:44,080
Speaker 5: to a decision, because most of the time it was

299
00:13:44,080 --> 00:13:48,080
Speaker 5: probably somewhat competitive. So I was convinced on one. You

300
00:13:48,160 --> 00:13:50,080
Speaker 5: convinced me to not bet on Boser on the other

301
00:13:50,320 --> 00:13:50,959
Speaker 5: if that helps.

302
00:13:51,040 --> 00:13:52,640
Speaker 4: So what I'm out quite there?

303
00:13:52,800 --> 00:13:54,920
Speaker 3: Barcello's decision to prop I like, as well, that'll be

304
00:13:54,960 --> 00:13:56,679
Speaker 3: in round Robins for me. But we're going to talk

305
00:13:56,720 --> 00:13:58,600
Speaker 3: about props and a Billy is one that I like,

306
00:13:58,640 --> 00:14:01,679
Speaker 3: that's gonna be in Round Robbins. But all so Barcellos

307
00:14:01,679 --> 00:14:03,000
Speaker 3: by decision, I'll be in there too.

308
00:14:03,400 --> 00:14:05,400
Speaker 1: Okay, Billy. So what dog did you land on for

309
00:14:05,679 --> 00:14:06,520
Speaker 1: UFC Nashville.

310
00:14:06,960 --> 00:14:08,960
Speaker 5: Yeah, I kind of disagreed with Sean and that I

311
00:14:08,960 --> 00:14:11,439
Speaker 5: didn't think this was a great card for underdogs. I

312
00:14:11,480 --> 00:14:13,600
Speaker 5: don't really love any of them. The one that I

313
00:14:13,640 --> 00:14:17,600
Speaker 5: do is Damon Jackson fighting Billy Quarantio. My favorite bet

314
00:14:17,640 --> 00:14:20,200
Speaker 5: on this is Quarantio live. If he goes to plus money.

315
00:14:20,240 --> 00:14:22,640
Speaker 5: At any point. But I think Damon Jackson skill for

316
00:14:22,760 --> 00:14:26,160
Speaker 5: skill is actually probably better across the board than Billy Quarantillo.

317
00:14:26,600 --> 00:14:29,600
Speaker 5: Quarantillo's best attribute is his volume in his cardio, which

318
00:14:29,960 --> 00:14:31,880
Speaker 5: is great, but we'd like to have volume in cardio

319
00:14:32,000 --> 00:14:34,600
Speaker 5: and being really good at something. Jackson's kind of a

320
00:14:34,640 --> 00:14:36,520
Speaker 5: fast starter, and he's been better when he comes out

321
00:14:36,520 --> 00:14:39,080
Speaker 5: early and comes out hot. So the way I see

322
00:14:39,120 --> 00:14:41,560
Speaker 5: it is very aggressive first round from Jackson. You know,

323
00:14:41,560 --> 00:14:43,720
Speaker 5: he's kind of winging some punches, using that as entries

324
00:14:43,760 --> 00:14:44,600
Speaker 5: to get takedowns.

325
00:14:44,640 --> 00:14:45,000
Speaker 4: Whatever.

326
00:14:46,080 --> 00:14:47,680
Speaker 5: If he doesn't finish him or it doesn't hurt him

327
00:14:47,680 --> 00:14:50,320
Speaker 5: pretty bad, then it's probably gonna slowly go the other

328
00:14:50,360 --> 00:14:52,520
Speaker 5: way against him. So I like having that pre fight

329
00:14:52,560 --> 00:14:55,720
Speaker 5: ticket on Jackson then hedging it off with Quarantio if

330
00:14:55,760 --> 00:14:58,480
Speaker 5: he can get him at plus money. One stat I

331
00:14:58,520 --> 00:15:02,040
Speaker 5: did find out looking up this though, Billy Quarantio is

332
00:15:02,080 --> 00:15:04,160
Speaker 5: five and zero in UFC fights where he gets a

333
00:15:04,200 --> 00:15:06,400
Speaker 5: take down. He is zero to three in fights where

334
00:15:06,440 --> 00:15:09,120
Speaker 5: he doesn't. And Jackson's enough of a submission threat that

335
00:15:09,480 --> 00:15:11,240
Speaker 5: I don't know that he'll want to get a takedown,

336
00:15:11,520 --> 00:15:13,360
Speaker 5: and he's a good enough grappler that he might not

337
00:15:13,440 --> 00:15:16,440
Speaker 5: be able to I have more doubts about his desire

338
00:15:16,480 --> 00:15:19,320
Speaker 5: than his ability here, but that's a scary thought if

339
00:15:19,320 --> 00:15:22,000
Speaker 5: you're on the Billy Quarantio side. But ideally we end

340
00:15:22,080 --> 00:15:24,560
Speaker 5: up holding plus money tickets on both guys. Six minutes

341
00:15:24,560 --> 00:15:25,320
Speaker 5: into this fight.

342
00:15:25,760 --> 00:15:27,600
Speaker 1: All right, let's dive into the fight of the night.

343
00:15:27,640 --> 00:15:31,200
Speaker 1: We have Kennedy in Zecha Ku taking on Dustin Jacoby.

344
00:15:31,280 --> 00:15:34,640
Speaker 1: Jacoby's the dog at plus one thirty two in Zechiku

345
00:15:34,680 --> 00:15:37,760
Speaker 1: at minus one sixty two. Billy, let's go to you

346
00:15:37,840 --> 00:15:39,960
Speaker 1: first on this one. How do you assess the fight

347
00:15:40,040 --> 00:15:44,640
Speaker 1: here and potentially why in zechiqu might be worth laying

348
00:15:44,680 --> 00:15:45,120
Speaker 1: the juice on.

349
00:15:45,960 --> 00:15:47,440
Speaker 5: Yeah, this is kind of a fun one for fight

350
00:15:47,480 --> 00:15:49,960
Speaker 5: of the night. The comin event is a very wide line,

351
00:15:50,000 --> 00:15:52,240
Speaker 5: so this felt like the obvious choice, and it's just

352
00:15:52,240 --> 00:15:55,080
Speaker 5: two big, strong, aggressive strikers going at it and Kennedy

353
00:15:55,200 --> 00:15:58,280
Speaker 5: as a chuck WU and Dustin Jacoby. Jacoby, I think

354
00:15:58,320 --> 00:16:00,480
Speaker 5: he started as an MMA fighter, then took a break

355
00:16:00,480 --> 00:16:02,760
Speaker 5: and had some success in kickboxing and then came back,

356
00:16:03,040 --> 00:16:04,800
Speaker 5: which is not the path we normally see normally, as

357
00:16:04,800 --> 00:16:06,560
Speaker 5: you start in kickboxing and then kind of find your

358
00:16:06,560 --> 00:16:09,880
Speaker 5: way here. But regardless, definitely has the kickboxing chops, but

359
00:16:10,000 --> 00:16:12,920
Speaker 5: Nazi Chuck Wiu was huge, very athletic, and then has

360
00:16:12,960 --> 00:16:16,080
Speaker 5: some sneaky submission skills in there. So the one thing

361
00:16:16,080 --> 00:16:18,760
Speaker 5: I noticed is Jacoby has fought too straight southpaws and

362
00:16:18,760 --> 00:16:20,640
Speaker 5: didn't do well against either of them. His two fight

363
00:16:20,720 --> 00:16:23,840
Speaker 5: losing streak is boasted against Southpaws. The other big point

364
00:16:23,880 --> 00:16:26,640
Speaker 5: for Nazi Chuku on the money line is Jacoby is

365
00:16:26,680 --> 00:16:29,320
Speaker 5: pretty tall and pretty long for the division, but he's

366
00:16:29,400 --> 00:16:32,800
Speaker 5: the shorter and less rich person this fight. I don't

367
00:16:32,800 --> 00:16:34,840
Speaker 5: think it's a big deal with fighters who are always

368
00:16:34,840 --> 00:16:36,640
Speaker 5: the shorter guy when they have to fight someone tall.

369
00:16:36,680 --> 00:16:39,600
Speaker 5: Like Volkanovski is a great example. He's almost always shorter,

370
00:16:39,720 --> 00:16:42,120
Speaker 5: so that's his game. His game is based on getting inside.

371
00:16:42,360 --> 00:16:43,840
Speaker 5: His game is based on dealing with.

372
00:16:43,800 --> 00:16:44,440
Speaker 4: The reach edge.

373
00:16:44,760 --> 00:16:46,840
Speaker 5: But fighters who are used to having that in their

374
00:16:46,880 --> 00:16:48,960
Speaker 5: favor and all of a sudden thrown into a fight

375
00:16:49,000 --> 00:16:51,840
Speaker 5: where it's not that's a big challenge for him, really

376
00:16:51,840 --> 00:16:55,800
Speaker 5: don't like it. On the same token, he's very very durable.

377
00:16:56,000 --> 00:16:58,040
Speaker 5: I think the prevailing wisdom here is that it's probably

378
00:16:58,040 --> 00:16:58,880
Speaker 5: a knockout.

379
00:16:58,520 --> 00:16:59,240
Speaker 4: One way or the other.

380
00:16:59,880 --> 00:17:02,720
Speaker 5: A little bit of a sprinkle on Nzi chucklu by decision,

381
00:17:03,120 --> 00:17:05,080
Speaker 5: but the line is dropped enough at minus one fifty

382
00:17:05,119 --> 00:17:07,040
Speaker 5: that I think the money line is the better play here.

383
00:17:07,480 --> 00:17:09,120
Speaker 5: I think he's gonna stay at range. I think he's

384
00:17:09,119 --> 00:17:11,639
Speaker 5: gonna win the front foot battle, which Jacoby struggled with

385
00:17:11,680 --> 00:17:14,000
Speaker 5: in both of his last two fights, just kind of

386
00:17:14,000 --> 00:17:16,240
Speaker 5: out of touch him a range and Jacoby will have

387
00:17:16,240 --> 00:17:18,400
Speaker 5: a hard time getting close because that's when those gillotines

388
00:17:18,440 --> 00:17:21,480
Speaker 5: in front headlocks and all those submission threats come into play.

389
00:17:21,760 --> 00:17:22,760
Speaker 4: So that's how I'm saying it.

390
00:17:22,800 --> 00:17:24,440
Speaker 5: I like that, I think he's minus one fifty is

391
00:17:24,480 --> 00:17:27,359
Speaker 5: the best money line odds, and then plus two twenty

392
00:17:27,359 --> 00:17:28,480
Speaker 5: five or so on the decision.

393
00:17:29,880 --> 00:17:35,359
Speaker 1: Zarrillo, Kennedy and Zechiku has a seven inch reach advantage

394
00:17:35,680 --> 00:17:37,840
Speaker 1: in this particular matchup, and we talked about reach when

395
00:17:37,840 --> 00:17:40,680
Speaker 1: we discussed the main event. You don't have as much

396
00:17:40,680 --> 00:17:42,639
Speaker 1: of a liena on this fight, but from what you

397
00:17:42,680 --> 00:17:44,920
Speaker 1: gathered from Billy and what you've put together, how would

398
00:17:44,920 --> 00:17:47,879
Speaker 1: you like to bet this particular matchup, this light heavyweight matchup.

399
00:17:48,680 --> 00:17:51,240
Speaker 3: Yeah, my strongest lean is the fight ten inside it

400
00:17:51,280 --> 00:17:54,040
Speaker 3: is since at minus one twenty five justin, Jacoby is

401
00:17:54,080 --> 00:17:56,920
Speaker 3: a pretty durable guy, and he also doesn't necessarily step

402
00:17:56,960 --> 00:17:59,479
Speaker 3: on the gas either offensively. He tends to be more

403
00:17:59,480 --> 00:18:02,680
Speaker 3: of a point five likes to kick the leg win minutes.

404
00:18:02,720 --> 00:18:06,159
Speaker 3: He's a good minute winner, and that's why, you know,

405
00:18:06,200 --> 00:18:08,200
Speaker 3: in terms of the winning method props, I'd sort of

406
00:18:08,280 --> 00:18:10,760
Speaker 3: lean to either Jacobe by decision at plus three ten

407
00:18:11,440 --> 00:18:13,880
Speaker 3: or Kennedy inside the distance at plus one seventy five.

408
00:18:14,880 --> 00:18:17,640
Speaker 3: I thought in his last fight two degree Jacobe looked

409
00:18:17,640 --> 00:18:20,639
Speaker 3: a little bit declined athletically. He's getting up there in fights,

410
00:18:20,760 --> 00:18:23,639
Speaker 3: looks a little bit slower, you know. Billy mentioned the

411
00:18:23,720 --> 00:18:26,720
Speaker 3: kickboxing experience too, So you tackle all those kickboxing fights

412
00:18:26,720 --> 00:18:31,080
Speaker 3: onto twenty six MMA fights and you have fifty professional

413
00:18:31,440 --> 00:18:33,960
Speaker 3: fights across your career, that's a lot of damage. Kennedy

414
00:18:34,000 --> 00:18:40,200
Speaker 3: and Jechku only fifteen fights. Still improving younger south pause,

415
00:18:40,240 --> 00:18:42,359
Speaker 3: Billy mentioned, which gives him the slight advantage too, but

416
00:18:42,520 --> 00:18:45,000
Speaker 3: also the huge reach advantage which he typically has over

417
00:18:45,040 --> 00:18:47,159
Speaker 3: his opponents. He doesn't make the best use of its

418
00:18:47,240 --> 00:18:49,880
Speaker 3: reach advantage, typically doesn't fight behind like a long jab

419
00:18:49,960 --> 00:18:52,080
Speaker 3: or you know, use a lot of teeth kicks or anything.

420
00:18:52,119 --> 00:18:55,000
Speaker 3: But I think he is improving as a fighter on

421
00:18:55,160 --> 00:18:57,560
Speaker 3: where we really see his length come into plays on

422
00:18:57,600 --> 00:19:00,320
Speaker 3: the ground when he is able to use his long

423
00:19:00,400 --> 00:19:02,640
Speaker 3: arms to wrap up opponents up against the fence, drag

424
00:19:02,720 --> 00:19:05,359
Speaker 3: him down, and then once he gets on top of people,

425
00:19:06,000 --> 00:19:09,240
Speaker 3: it seems like he actually does leverage his length really well.

426
00:19:09,240 --> 00:19:13,479
Speaker 3: From there with elbows, he's able to break through. You know,

427
00:19:13,840 --> 00:19:17,560
Speaker 3: fighters defense is actually pretty well because he can sort

428
00:19:17,560 --> 00:19:20,680
Speaker 3: of like just launch these elbows, you know when he's

429
00:19:20,720 --> 00:19:23,520
Speaker 3: in guard that he has this extra reach with that

430
00:19:23,640 --> 00:19:25,840
Speaker 3: most people dealt because his upper body is so long.

431
00:19:25,960 --> 00:19:30,960
Speaker 3: So yeah, I think Kennedy is probably the right side here.

432
00:19:31,520 --> 00:19:33,359
Speaker 3: Not going to be betting it on the money line,

433
00:19:33,960 --> 00:19:36,040
Speaker 3: as I said, I'm probably leaning to either betting the

434
00:19:36,320 --> 00:19:38,520
Speaker 3: ends inside the distance at minus one twenty five or

435
00:19:38,600 --> 00:19:41,800
Speaker 3: Kennedy to win inside the distance at plus one seventy five.

436
00:19:42,160 --> 00:19:45,440
Speaker 3: His submission line also interests me as well. I think

437
00:19:45,480 --> 00:19:50,160
Speaker 3: the biggest advantage for either fighter here is Kennedy offensively grappling.

438
00:19:50,280 --> 00:19:52,320
Speaker 3: If he's able to get on top, I think it

439
00:19:52,400 --> 00:19:55,320
Speaker 3: might be the fight. So Kennedy buy submission interests me,

440
00:19:55,720 --> 00:19:58,520
Speaker 3: but probably just betting inside the distance or fight ten

441
00:19:58,640 --> 00:20:00,880
Speaker 3: inside the distance if I play it. As of now,

442
00:20:00,960 --> 00:20:03,240
Speaker 3: leaning towards the pass. I think this fight is probably

443
00:20:03,240 --> 00:20:04,000
Speaker 3: correctly lined.

444
00:20:04,359 --> 00:20:05,960
Speaker 1: Billy, what was your experience against self?

445
00:20:06,000 --> 00:20:06,280
Speaker 4: Pause?

446
00:20:06,600 --> 00:20:08,680
Speaker 5: Not a ton, because most of my fights devolved into

447
00:20:08,720 --> 00:20:10,919
Speaker 5: grappling one way or the other. Either I forced it

448
00:20:11,000 --> 00:20:13,680
Speaker 5: or a guy took me down, but I didn't like it.

449
00:20:13,800 --> 00:20:17,000
Speaker 5: I also, honestly, the bigger thing from my personal experience

450
00:20:17,119 --> 00:20:19,600
Speaker 5: is I had a few fights at one fifty five

451
00:20:19,640 --> 00:20:21,040
Speaker 5: at one point in my career, so I kind of

452
00:20:21,040 --> 00:20:22,840
Speaker 5: got used to being the taller, longer guy. I'm about

453
00:20:23,000 --> 00:20:25,679
Speaker 5: six foot, and then I ran into a fifty five

454
00:20:25,760 --> 00:20:28,200
Speaker 5: or who was taller than me and just couldn't get inside,

455
00:20:28,200 --> 00:20:30,719
Speaker 5: couldn't make anything work. And then coming up to one seventy,

456
00:20:30,800 --> 00:20:33,159
Speaker 5: I fought multiple guys six three sixty four and it

457
00:20:33,200 --> 00:20:35,120
Speaker 5: just drove me crazy, like I just had no ability

458
00:20:35,280 --> 00:20:37,919
Speaker 5: to get inside that reach. And that's because I was

459
00:20:37,920 --> 00:20:40,080
Speaker 5: someone who is used to being taller. Right again, if

460
00:20:40,080 --> 00:20:43,240
Speaker 5: you're you know, a five eight stocky wrestler, your whole

461
00:20:43,240 --> 00:20:45,399
Speaker 5: game is getting inside. So I really think that's a

462
00:20:45,440 --> 00:20:48,680
Speaker 5: big factor for Jacoby. I agree with Sean that nazuchuk

463
00:20:48,720 --> 00:20:51,359
Speaker 5: Wu doesn't use it as well as I would like,

464
00:20:52,040 --> 00:20:53,439
Speaker 5: but he doesn't have to be perfect at it, right

465
00:20:53,480 --> 00:20:54,880
Speaker 5: he's just got to get something out of that reach

466
00:20:54,880 --> 00:20:56,560
Speaker 5: advantage for it to work in our favorite here.

467
00:20:57,040 --> 00:20:59,240
Speaker 3: He's still I mean, he's still fifteen fights into his

468
00:20:59,320 --> 00:21:02,880
Speaker 3: MMA career. He's most of that, honestly has taken place

469
00:21:02,920 --> 00:21:05,760
Speaker 3: in the UFC. More than half of his MMA fights

470
00:21:05,760 --> 00:21:07,480
Speaker 3: had taken place in the UFC trains with a good

471
00:21:07,480 --> 00:21:10,399
Speaker 3: camp down in Texas. I still think he's improving. I

472
00:21:10,400 --> 00:21:13,800
Speaker 3: think he's an interesting prospect. I don't think he's the

473
00:21:13,800 --> 00:21:16,320
Speaker 3: most terrible guy either, though. That's why you know the

474
00:21:16,320 --> 00:21:19,360
Speaker 3: fight tendants how it is, and it's interests me. Chacoby

475
00:21:19,440 --> 00:21:21,160
Speaker 3: not the biggest hitter, but I could see him folding

476
00:21:21,240 --> 00:21:24,800
Speaker 3: up Kennedy right, Paul Man defense Kennedy twelve.

477
00:21:24,640 --> 00:21:28,000
Speaker 1: And three and his fifteen fights. I wanted to get

478
00:21:28,040 --> 00:21:30,399
Speaker 1: the self pop perspective because it is kind of a

479
00:21:30,520 --> 00:21:32,760
Speaker 1: rare spot. You just kind of highlighted that because you

480
00:21:32,760 --> 00:21:36,280
Speaker 1: didn't have much experience with it, so just curious. Uh,

481
00:21:36,720 --> 00:21:39,240
Speaker 1: Moving on to the prop market, twelve fights on the

482
00:21:39,240 --> 00:21:41,399
Speaker 1: cards are a little where do we land this week?

483
00:21:41,880 --> 00:21:43,600
Speaker 3: Yeah, like the fact that we're in the bigger cage

484
00:21:43,600 --> 00:21:45,640
Speaker 3: in Nashville as opposed to being in the Apex where

485
00:21:45,680 --> 00:21:47,919
Speaker 3: I initially thought this card was when I was handicapping it.

486
00:21:48,600 --> 00:21:51,040
Speaker 3: So Nacia Abahamonde asking little bit client fight to go

487
00:21:51,040 --> 00:21:53,399
Speaker 3: to a decision at minus one twenty. Being in the

488
00:21:53,400 --> 00:21:57,359
Speaker 3: bay cage should help them. This should mostly be an outside,

489
00:21:58,240 --> 00:22:02,520
Speaker 3: mid tempo cakebox match. KWin is the better grappler here,

490
00:22:03,800 --> 00:22:08,000
Speaker 3: but he likes the fire basically the same combination one

491
00:22:08,160 --> 00:22:11,479
Speaker 3: two head kick. He has a really nice that kick.

492
00:22:11,520 --> 00:22:13,080
Speaker 3: He's gonna have a tough time landing it against the

493
00:22:13,080 --> 00:22:16,879
Speaker 3: guy who's six inches taller than him, and he's at

494
00:22:16,920 --> 00:22:20,679
Speaker 3: a three inch reach discrepancy, so he might have the

495
00:22:20,720 --> 00:22:25,240
Speaker 3: better hands, but he's gonna have difficulty getting inside. He's

496
00:22:25,280 --> 00:22:28,240
Speaker 3: probably going to look to grapple if he does get inside,

497
00:22:29,040 --> 00:22:31,480
Speaker 3: And I expect a lot of this fight to just

498
00:22:31,520 --> 00:22:36,800
Speaker 3: be BAHAMONDI is working on the outside, kicking him klein

499
00:22:36,960 --> 00:22:38,959
Speaker 3: trying to get to him with his hands being unable

500
00:22:39,000 --> 00:22:41,760
Speaker 3: to and then kicking him back. And I think we

501
00:22:41,800 --> 00:22:44,639
Speaker 3: see a lot of low kicks, a lot of body kicks,

502
00:22:45,040 --> 00:22:47,600
Speaker 3: maybe some flashy strikes. Maybe there's, you know, a moment

503
00:22:47,640 --> 00:22:50,639
Speaker 3: or two where this gets scary, But this to me

504
00:22:50,880 --> 00:22:54,359
Speaker 3: as all the makings of a relatively low pop pace

505
00:22:54,480 --> 00:22:59,080
Speaker 3: kickboxing match or time spent where Klein is, you know,

506
00:22:59,200 --> 00:23:01,160
Speaker 3: killing the clock to get him to the ground, pressing

507
00:23:01,240 --> 00:23:03,399
Speaker 3: him up against the cage, trying to switch to a

508
00:23:03,440 --> 00:23:05,199
Speaker 3: takedown on the hips and not being able to get it,

509
00:23:05,280 --> 00:23:07,440
Speaker 3: or getting it and potentially getting him down. But even

510
00:23:07,520 --> 00:23:09,600
Speaker 3: if he does, I don't think he's some you know,

511
00:23:09,640 --> 00:23:12,080
Speaker 3: elite submission grappler who's going to finish the fight at

512
00:23:12,080 --> 00:23:15,959
Speaker 3: a high clip. So yeah, I don't see massive knockout

513
00:23:15,960 --> 00:23:17,679
Speaker 3: power on either side. Both of them are more so

514
00:23:17,720 --> 00:23:20,879
Speaker 3: attritional finishers, and they're both pretty durable and have decent

515
00:23:20,920 --> 00:23:23,639
Speaker 3: cardio too, So it seems like the path to a

516
00:23:23,680 --> 00:23:26,359
Speaker 3: finish that either would typically take, which is more of

517
00:23:26,359 --> 00:23:29,439
Speaker 3: an attritional bay stoppage or just that flash ko from

518
00:23:29,480 --> 00:23:32,080
Speaker 3: Client via the head kick, it's going to be difficult

519
00:23:32,080 --> 00:23:35,080
Speaker 3: to find those against their opponents. So Bahamo Disclient fight

520
00:23:35,119 --> 00:23:37,880
Speaker 3: to go to decision minus one twenty projected this closer

521
00:23:37,920 --> 00:23:40,440
Speaker 3: to minus one fifty, And then briefly, I just want

522
00:23:40,440 --> 00:23:42,639
Speaker 3: to mention the comin event that Billy talked about earlier,

523
00:23:43,560 --> 00:23:47,719
Speaker 3: justicon joj Tatiana Suarez. I like the unders in that

524
00:23:47,760 --> 00:23:50,640
Speaker 3: matchup under one and a half minus one oh five

525
00:23:50,760 --> 00:23:54,399
Speaker 3: under two and a half minus two hundred. It's just

526
00:23:54,720 --> 00:23:58,280
Speaker 3: a very binary fight. The Suarez should be able to

527
00:23:58,359 --> 00:24:00,879
Speaker 3: land takedowns, take the back submitter. If she doesn't, I

528
00:24:00,920 --> 00:24:04,040
Speaker 3: think there's a chance she gases out hard and Androge

529
00:24:04,080 --> 00:24:06,960
Speaker 3: potentially lands that come back KO. So fight end inside

530
00:24:06,960 --> 00:24:08,800
Speaker 3: the distance in the main event or a code main event.

531
00:24:08,800 --> 00:24:12,080
Speaker 3: I should say between Andrage and Suarez, betting it under

532
00:24:12,080 --> 00:24:13,199
Speaker 3: two and a half, under one and a half, and

533
00:24:13,240 --> 00:24:15,920
Speaker 3: then Bahamo does incline fight to go to a decision

534
00:24:15,960 --> 00:24:18,760
Speaker 3: at minus one twenty. My favorite props.

535
00:24:20,040 --> 00:24:22,439
Speaker 1: You have see Nashville prop market, Billy, Where are we

536
00:24:22,760 --> 00:24:24,200
Speaker 1: landing this week for a prop?

537
00:24:24,920 --> 00:24:25,200
Speaker 4: Yeah?

538
00:24:25,280 --> 00:24:27,679
Speaker 5: Before I get to mind, just love Sean's pick on

539
00:24:27,800 --> 00:24:30,960
Speaker 5: Baha Monday's unlike Kenna din As a chuckle and tons

540
00:24:30,960 --> 00:24:33,600
Speaker 5: of other fighters, uses his height really well outside it

541
00:24:33,600 --> 00:24:35,920
Speaker 5: works behind a long jab, keeps people away, and it's

542
00:24:35,920 --> 00:24:38,280
Speaker 5: just so frustrating for the opponent there, especially someone who

543
00:24:38,280 --> 00:24:40,760
Speaker 5: wants to grapple, because it's hard to grapple while being

544
00:24:40,760 --> 00:24:42,000
Speaker 5: punched in the face repeatedly.

545
00:24:42,280 --> 00:24:46,800
Speaker 3: So yeah, but it's a great point fighting style, right

546
00:24:46,840 --> 00:24:50,320
Speaker 3: that's going to lead to longer fights, less aggression even

547
00:24:50,320 --> 00:24:52,520
Speaker 3: when he hurts his opponents. He's very patient, you know,

548
00:24:52,760 --> 00:24:55,359
Speaker 3: he's happy to stay on that outside game. So yeah,

549
00:24:55,400 --> 00:24:57,480
Speaker 3: I'm sure you'd agree with that. Billy like that kind

550
00:24:57,520 --> 00:24:59,560
Speaker 3: of point fighting style. The guys who use their length,

551
00:24:59,600 --> 00:25:02,400
Speaker 3: the guys who were able to keep distance from their opponents.

552
00:25:02,440 --> 00:25:05,840
Speaker 3: It's a safer style and going to lead to more decisions, definitely.

553
00:25:05,960 --> 00:25:08,239
Speaker 5: And it's the rare fighter who uses length well and

554
00:25:08,280 --> 00:25:10,120
Speaker 5: also hunts for finishes. You know, we see it every

555
00:25:10,280 --> 00:25:13,120
Speaker 5: guys like John Jones, but they're one in a million, right,

556
00:25:13,720 --> 00:25:15,280
Speaker 5: There's only one John Jones for a reason.

557
00:25:15,800 --> 00:25:18,960
Speaker 4: But that so on my top prop.

558
00:25:19,080 --> 00:25:21,480
Speaker 5: I probably in our little document here switched this back

559
00:25:21,480 --> 00:25:24,040
Speaker 5: and forth five or six times between inside the Distance

560
00:25:24,080 --> 00:25:25,639
Speaker 5: and submission before I settled on it.

561
00:25:26,280 --> 00:25:27,000
Speaker 4: But I'm going to go.

562
00:25:26,920 --> 00:25:31,080
Speaker 5: With officially Diego Lopez inside the Distance. Diego Lopez is

563
00:25:31,119 --> 00:25:34,000
Speaker 5: the archetype of something we talked about with Basil Jefez

564
00:25:34,040 --> 00:25:36,240
Speaker 5: a couple of weeks ago, where he did not win

565
00:25:36,280 --> 00:25:38,639
Speaker 5: his UFC debut, but he is one to zero in

566
00:25:38,720 --> 00:25:41,159
Speaker 5: the moral win loss record because he put on a

567
00:25:41,200 --> 00:25:44,920
Speaker 5: great performance on short notice against Masvar EVILV almost tapped

568
00:25:44,960 --> 00:25:46,639
Speaker 5: him out a couple times with submissions had him in

569
00:25:46,640 --> 00:25:49,320
Speaker 5: a deep arm bar worked for some leg stuff, but

570
00:25:49,480 --> 00:25:52,119
Speaker 5: he also almost finished him a couple times with some strikes.

571
00:25:52,119 --> 00:25:54,560
Speaker 5: He landed some big shots on a Voyev. One of

572
00:25:54,560 --> 00:25:57,800
Speaker 5: the best fighters in the division. Diego Lopez is the

573
00:25:57,840 --> 00:26:00,960
Speaker 5: Brazilian jiu jitsu coach for Alexis Grass, Alexa Grosso and

574
00:26:01,000 --> 00:26:05,120
Speaker 5: Irene Aldana. Just unmatched, you know, submission grappling props here,

575
00:26:05,600 --> 00:26:07,840
Speaker 5: but he's kind of got that old school Brazilian fighter

576
00:26:07,920 --> 00:26:09,800
Speaker 5: vibe where he's swinging real hard and then if it

577
00:26:09,840 --> 00:26:12,040
Speaker 5: doesn't work, we're going to try to grapple rather than

578
00:26:12,080 --> 00:26:12,760
Speaker 5: try to point fight.

579
00:26:12,800 --> 00:26:15,240
Speaker 4: You work for takedowns. No, he's just he's swinging it almost,

580
00:26:15,280 --> 00:26:15,399
Speaker 4: you know.

581
00:26:15,480 --> 00:26:19,000
Speaker 5: Charles Olivera is another example that getting him at plus

582
00:26:19,080 --> 00:26:22,600
Speaker 5: money against Gavin Tucker I think is pretty offline. I

583
00:26:22,640 --> 00:26:24,360
Speaker 5: think it should be much closer to his money line,

584
00:26:24,400 --> 00:26:27,160
Speaker 5: which has him as a considerable favorite here. So plus

585
00:26:27,160 --> 00:26:29,680
Speaker 5: one twenty, if you want to go for it, I

586
00:26:29,720 --> 00:26:32,680
Speaker 5: would go with the submission side over the knockout. There's

587
00:26:32,720 --> 00:26:35,080
Speaker 5: a chance that he hits him, almost knocks him out,

588
00:26:35,080 --> 00:26:37,439
Speaker 5: and finishes with a submission. There's not a very good

589
00:26:37,520 --> 00:26:39,439
Speaker 5: chance that he gets an arm bar, breaks his arm

590
00:26:39,480 --> 00:26:41,160
Speaker 5: and then knocks him out instead. You know, it doesn't

591
00:26:41,160 --> 00:26:43,560
Speaker 5: really work the other way, so I see that as

592
00:26:43,600 --> 00:26:44,560
Speaker 5: more likely in their line.

593
00:26:44,600 --> 00:26:48,680
Speaker 3: Pretty close lopes my lips by submission my favorite round

594
00:26:48,720 --> 00:26:50,879
Speaker 3: robin piece this week. I just wanted to throw that

595
00:26:50,880 --> 00:26:52,639
Speaker 3: out there in terms of money line side, though, I

596
00:26:52,680 --> 00:26:54,840
Speaker 3: might lean towards talker Tucker probably the more skilled fighter,

597
00:26:55,440 --> 00:26:58,360
Speaker 3: more technical. He's just old and he got knocked out

598
00:26:58,359 --> 00:27:00,520
Speaker 3: cold on the first punch of his life last fight.

599
00:27:00,960 --> 00:27:02,399
Speaker 3: I bet that fight to go to a decision, by

600
00:27:02,400 --> 00:27:06,320
Speaker 3: the way, I remember it very vividly against Danny Gay.

601
00:27:07,160 --> 00:27:10,560
Speaker 3: But yeah, I think Tucker's probably the better fighter. But

602
00:27:10,800 --> 00:27:13,000
Speaker 3: Loaves is so dangerous. I don't know how you don't

603
00:27:13,000 --> 00:27:15,480
Speaker 3: plays inside the distance. Probably it's going to be the

604
00:27:15,520 --> 00:27:17,639
Speaker 3: most fun spot of the night betting wopes to win

605
00:27:17,680 --> 00:27:20,520
Speaker 3: inside the distance against the guy who's old, who has

606
00:27:20,600 --> 00:27:23,359
Speaker 3: never seen this level of submission grappling after landing a

607
00:27:23,400 --> 00:27:26,480
Speaker 3: takedown before. So yeah, loops is really fun, and.

608
00:27:26,480 --> 00:27:28,960
Speaker 5: That's kind of the I think the way we should

609
00:27:29,000 --> 00:27:32,359
Speaker 5: play fights like this with those jiu jitsu slash aggressive

610
00:27:32,359 --> 00:27:35,360
Speaker 5: striker styles, because it's not good for winning minutes. They're

611
00:27:35,400 --> 00:27:37,560
Speaker 5: taking big swings on the feet if they don't land.

612
00:27:37,600 --> 00:27:39,640
Speaker 5: It kind of looks like they're getting outpointed, and they're

613
00:27:39,640 --> 00:27:41,359
Speaker 5: also happy to play off their back or work for

614
00:27:41,400 --> 00:27:44,240
Speaker 5: submissions from bad positions, which you know, even though we've

615
00:27:44,240 --> 00:27:46,960
Speaker 5: gotten better in terms of judging that, you're still not

616
00:27:47,040 --> 00:27:49,320
Speaker 5: winning just by being on your back and guard throwing

617
00:27:49,359 --> 00:27:51,040
Speaker 5: up trogles while I got a hammer fisted you.

618
00:27:51,240 --> 00:27:53,320
Speaker 4: So if it works, it's great because.

619
00:27:53,160 --> 00:27:55,119
Speaker 5: You get the finish. If it doesn't, you probably use

620
00:27:55,200 --> 00:27:57,919
Speaker 5: to lose the decision. I could even see it, you know,

621
00:27:57,960 --> 00:28:00,840
Speaker 5: a case for Tucker decision, and then Lopes. I got

622
00:28:00,840 --> 00:28:02,760
Speaker 5: to remember that it's Lopes and that Lopez it feels

623
00:28:02,760 --> 00:28:06,560
Speaker 5: so backwards, but Lopes inside the distance Tucker decision also

624
00:28:06,600 --> 00:28:08,320
Speaker 5: makes some sense if you want to head your risk there.

625
00:28:08,600 --> 00:28:10,480
Speaker 3: Not sure if you mentioned the size advantage too, five

626
00:28:10,520 --> 00:28:14,440
Speaker 3: inches taller, six inch reach advantage, eight years younger, so

627
00:28:14,600 --> 00:28:18,320
Speaker 3: all the physical tools on Lopes. Corner got hit really

628
00:28:18,320 --> 00:28:20,440
Speaker 3: hard in his last fight and probably should have gotten

629
00:28:20,440 --> 00:28:23,159
Speaker 3: finished multiple times by a voi of as well, so

630
00:28:23,200 --> 00:28:25,960
Speaker 3: the under might be good year. But yeah, if I'm

631
00:28:25,960 --> 00:28:27,720
Speaker 3: picking one of the two to win inside the distance,

632
00:28:27,720 --> 00:28:31,560
Speaker 3: it's Slopes, and as you said, Tucker probably more decision equity.

633
00:28:32,160 --> 00:28:35,879
Speaker 1: Total rounds prop two and a half rounds under is

634
00:28:36,040 --> 00:28:37,600
Speaker 1: choose to minus one twenty six.

635
00:28:38,040 --> 00:28:40,960
Speaker 3: Yeah Underbrud be good not betting it, but that's probably

636
00:28:40,960 --> 00:28:42,200
Speaker 3: the right side.

637
00:28:42,240 --> 00:28:45,880
Speaker 1: Tucker thirty seven years of age Lopes twenty eight, who

638
00:28:45,960 --> 00:28:48,120
Speaker 1: is a relose point about the age discrepancy.

639
00:28:48,400 --> 00:28:50,360
Speaker 3: Yeah, thirty seven into one hundred and thirty five pound

640
00:28:50,400 --> 00:28:53,040
Speaker 3: division coming off of a long layoff after an immediate

641
00:28:53,120 --> 00:28:55,120
Speaker 3: knockout loss, a lot of red flags.

642
00:28:55,400 --> 00:28:57,440
Speaker 5: You can't get me to bed an older guy who's

643
00:28:57,480 --> 00:28:59,800
Speaker 5: also less athletic, Like they just you can't make me

644
00:28:59,840 --> 00:29:01,920
Speaker 5: do it in any way or another. I'll deal with

645
00:29:01,960 --> 00:29:04,400
Speaker 5: either one of those attributes going against you, but not both.

646
00:29:04,440 --> 00:29:05,160
Speaker 4: It's just too much.

647
00:29:06,120 --> 00:29:08,080
Speaker 1: We try to be fair about age on this podcast,

648
00:29:08,080 --> 00:29:09,520
Speaker 1: and we use it to our advantage when we have to.

649
00:29:09,600 --> 00:29:10,120
Speaker 3: It's perfect.

650
00:29:10,560 --> 00:29:13,000
Speaker 5: I'm the biggest ageist in the world as someone who

651
00:29:13,040 --> 00:29:15,000
Speaker 5: went back to training a little bit in my thirties

652
00:29:15,040 --> 00:29:17,040
Speaker 5: and knows how different it feels than it did ten

653
00:29:17,120 --> 00:29:19,200
Speaker 5: years ago. Like I see a guy hit thirty two

654
00:29:19,280 --> 00:29:25,200
Speaker 5: or thirty three, I'm like, he might as well be eighty, So.

655
00:29:23,200 --> 00:29:26,840
Speaker 1: Stick it to him, Billy, stick it to them. Okay,

656
00:29:27,000 --> 00:29:29,960
Speaker 1: best bets or final bets. You'll be able to tell

657
00:29:30,080 --> 00:29:32,280
Speaker 1: how they feel about them once they delivered their their

658
00:29:32,280 --> 00:29:35,040
Speaker 1: best bets. Zilla is going with a fun name for

659
00:29:35,080 --> 00:29:36,720
Speaker 1: his best bet. What do you got, Sean.

660
00:29:37,160 --> 00:29:39,120
Speaker 3: Yeah going with Dennis Bazook on the money line. Another

661
00:29:39,200 --> 00:29:41,480
Speaker 3: underdog that I like on this card. He's not the

662
00:29:41,480 --> 00:29:43,680
Speaker 3: best fighter, and I think you can see that by

663
00:29:43,680 --> 00:29:45,800
Speaker 3: the fact that he fought twice on Dana White's Contender

664
00:29:45,880 --> 00:29:48,880
Speaker 3: Series and was not signed. Lost his first fight one

665
00:29:49,000 --> 00:29:52,640
Speaker 3: is second. Virtually everybody who won their fights on last

666
00:29:52,640 --> 00:29:56,080
Speaker 3: season a Contender Series got signed to the UFC except

667
00:29:56,120 --> 00:29:58,760
Speaker 3: for Dennis Pazuoka and just a handful of other fighters.

668
00:29:59,000 --> 00:30:01,680
Speaker 3: Normally you don't even need to finish anymore to get signed,

669
00:30:01,960 --> 00:30:05,000
Speaker 3: and they slid and sign him. The reason why I

670
00:30:05,120 --> 00:30:09,040
Speaker 3: like him for his UFC debut against Sean Woodson is

671
00:30:09,080 --> 00:30:12,280
Speaker 3: what we've seen from Bozuka in his recent regional fights

672
00:30:12,440 --> 00:30:17,880
Speaker 3: is a willingness to grapple. He's the younger guy, he's

673
00:30:17,960 --> 00:30:22,320
Speaker 3: well trained, he trains under Ray Longo we brought up

674
00:30:22,320 --> 00:30:27,360
Speaker 3: in the past recent fights, and Azim Sadakov, Rau Devashphili

675
00:30:28,080 --> 00:30:30,880
Speaker 3: Matt Ravola, Al Jamaine Sterling. There's a lot of good

676
00:30:30,880 --> 00:30:34,120
Speaker 3: guys in that one hundred and thirty five to one

677
00:30:34,240 --> 00:30:37,239
Speaker 3: hundred and fifty five pound range in that training room

678
00:30:37,280 --> 00:30:40,920
Speaker 3: that Bazuka is training with, he's much smaller. He's at

679
00:30:40,960 --> 00:30:44,440
Speaker 3: an eight inch reach discrepancy. But Sean Woodson is one

680
00:30:44,520 --> 00:30:49,280
Speaker 3: of the most consistently reliably bad grapplers in the UFCS.

681
00:30:49,400 --> 00:30:53,720
Speaker 3: Great kickboxer makes great use of that reach, but he's

682
00:30:53,760 --> 00:30:56,320
Speaker 3: had a ton of time to improve his grappling and

683
00:30:56,360 --> 00:30:59,760
Speaker 3: he still hasn't done it. So Bazuka primarily I think

684
00:30:59,760 --> 00:31:01,600
Speaker 3: people I'll see him as a striker, and I think

685
00:31:01,640 --> 00:31:03,680
Speaker 3: that's a lot why the line is where it is.

686
00:31:04,080 --> 00:31:06,160
Speaker 3: But he is all of the grappling upside this fight,

687
00:31:06,280 --> 00:31:08,520
Speaker 3: one hundred percent of the grappling upside in this fight.

688
00:31:09,040 --> 00:31:11,719
Speaker 3: One is last two wins regionally on the mat, one

689
00:31:11,840 --> 00:31:15,320
Speaker 3: via ground a pound, one via rear naked choke. As

690
00:31:15,360 --> 00:31:17,040
Speaker 3: I said, he comes from a top camp, but a

691
00:31:17,080 --> 00:31:21,320
Speaker 3: camp that also devises very smart game plans. I'm assuming

692
00:31:21,320 --> 00:31:23,960
Speaker 3: he's going to be grappling here from the outset. I

693
00:31:24,040 --> 00:31:28,600
Speaker 3: trust the camp. I trust the deficiency in Woodson's grappling

694
00:31:29,040 --> 00:31:33,240
Speaker 3: being exploited here. So Bazuka plus one fifty five they

695
00:31:33,280 --> 00:31:34,960
Speaker 3: said he's not the best fighter, but I know he's

696
00:31:34,960 --> 00:31:37,200
Speaker 3: going to try hard, and I'm assuming he's going to

697
00:31:37,240 --> 00:31:39,880
Speaker 3: try very hard to grapple, So that's all you want

698
00:31:40,080 --> 00:31:43,200
Speaker 3: when you're betting plus money. I think there's an argument

699
00:31:43,200 --> 00:31:44,480
Speaker 3: that they should be closer to a pick. I'm based

700
00:31:44,480 --> 00:31:46,040
Speaker 3: on the grappling upside.

701
00:31:46,360 --> 00:31:48,320
Speaker 1: You know, Billy that kind of started as a final bet.

702
00:31:48,360 --> 00:31:49,920
Speaker 1: Then I like, well, wait a minute, maybe this is

703
00:31:49,960 --> 00:31:51,800
Speaker 1: a best bet, and then it kind of went back

704
00:31:51,840 --> 00:31:53,440
Speaker 1: to final bet status at the end there.

705
00:31:53,480 --> 00:31:56,240
Speaker 3: So, yeah, my best bet is the the Klein Bajamodez

706
00:31:56,280 --> 00:31:59,440
Speaker 3: goes the decision. But you know, in terms of the

707
00:31:59,600 --> 00:32:03,320
Speaker 3: three money lines I mentioned, Bazuka definitely the one I

708
00:32:03,360 --> 00:32:08,400
Speaker 3: prefer amongst those three. And then I'm actually on the

709
00:32:08,440 --> 00:32:10,640
Speaker 3: other side of Billy's best about this week, so I

710
00:32:10,680 --> 00:32:13,040
Speaker 3: didn't I didn't want to outright go against him, but

711
00:32:13,280 --> 00:32:16,480
Speaker 3: uh yeah, we're on opposite side of Billy's best bet.

712
00:32:16,480 --> 00:32:18,720
Speaker 3: But I'm curious if he has any thoughts on Bazukah,

713
00:32:18,960 --> 00:32:20,120
Speaker 3: I'm curious to hear them.

714
00:32:21,360 --> 00:32:23,720
Speaker 5: Yeah, I didn't really get to that fight just because

715
00:32:23,960 --> 00:32:26,200
Speaker 5: not a ton of tape on Bazuka's Contender series was

716
00:32:26,240 --> 00:32:28,800
Speaker 5: a while ago. That that was an A plus best

717
00:32:28,920 --> 00:32:32,920
Speaker 5: bet read though, so I'm convinced, like just from start

718
00:32:32,960 --> 00:32:34,400
Speaker 5: to finish with he's not that great.

719
00:32:34,400 --> 00:32:36,640
Speaker 4: But here's why. Just just remember.

720
00:32:36,760 --> 00:32:38,920
Speaker 3: Trust the camp man, Like this is one of those

721
00:32:38,960 --> 00:32:41,280
Speaker 3: things that I'm from Long Island. I've been around long

722
00:32:41,400 --> 00:32:45,680
Speaker 3: enough to see Ray Longos fighters overachieved. Just just trust

723
00:32:45,720 --> 00:32:46,920
Speaker 3: the camp here. That's it.

724
00:32:47,640 --> 00:32:50,640
Speaker 5: And that is a terrific segue into my best bet,

725
00:32:50,640 --> 00:32:53,200
Speaker 5: which actually is my best bet on Jeremiah Wells, because

726
00:32:53,240 --> 00:32:55,400
Speaker 5: one thing I'm gonna do is bet on every Henzel

727
00:32:55,440 --> 00:32:57,600
Speaker 5: Gracie Philly guy that you give me an opportunity to

728
00:32:58,000 --> 00:33:00,440
Speaker 5: in the US. Because when we talk about trust in

729
00:33:00,480 --> 00:33:04,640
Speaker 5: the camp, I think they won like twelve straight. When Sabatini, Wells,

730
00:33:04,720 --> 00:33:08,640
Speaker 5: and Brady all got to the UFC, Petrowski's overperformed his expectations.

731
00:33:08,640 --> 00:33:12,560
Speaker 5: Wells is four and zero. Other than we got Sabatini's

732
00:33:12,600 --> 00:33:16,200
Speaker 5: flash knockout against Damon Jackson and then Brady lost to

733
00:33:16,200 --> 00:33:19,000
Speaker 5: Blaul Mohammed. I think they're undefeated. Outside of that. I

734
00:33:19,000 --> 00:33:20,880
Speaker 5: don't know who officially counts as in the camp or not,

735
00:33:20,960 --> 00:33:22,560
Speaker 5: so I don't want to go two into the woods.

736
00:33:23,000 --> 00:33:25,520
Speaker 5: But yeah, and that's Jeremiah Wells this week. I thought

737
00:33:25,520 --> 00:33:27,080
Speaker 5: this line was going to go the other way when

738
00:33:27,120 --> 00:33:29,040
Speaker 5: he opened it, like minus one fifty five or so

739
00:33:29,440 --> 00:33:31,360
Speaker 5: he's now I think he'd get as good as minus

740
00:33:31,400 --> 00:33:33,240
Speaker 5: one twenty five, which is just absurd to me.

741
00:33:33,320 --> 00:33:35,840
Speaker 1: He's minus one twenty two right now at fandl.

742
00:33:35,640 --> 00:33:39,320
Speaker 5: Okay, he's more He's just more skilled than Carlson Harris.

743
00:33:39,400 --> 00:33:41,800
Speaker 5: I think across the board, neither of them are great

744
00:33:41,840 --> 00:33:46,320
Speaker 5: technical strikers. Harris kind of throws weird angled like chopping

745
00:33:46,360 --> 00:33:49,720
Speaker 5: down punches. Wells makes the mistake of leaping in with

746
00:33:49,800 --> 00:33:52,720
Speaker 5: his strikes and that catches him where his footwork gets bad,

747
00:33:52,760 --> 00:33:54,920
Speaker 5: and that's when he gets hurt. We saw it both

748
00:33:54,920 --> 00:33:57,760
Speaker 5: times in the Matthew Semmelsberger fight. He wasn't really getting

749
00:33:57,800 --> 00:34:00,440
Speaker 5: like beat technically with a striking. He would jump in

750
00:34:00,520 --> 00:34:03,200
Speaker 5: with a pudge land square like in more of a

751
00:34:03,240 --> 00:34:05,600
Speaker 5: wrestling stance and then get caught and his balance was

752
00:34:05,640 --> 00:34:08,799
Speaker 5: all messed up. But then every time, while half unconscious,

753
00:34:08,800 --> 00:34:10,279
Speaker 5: he was still able to take down one of the

754
00:34:10,320 --> 00:34:14,239
Speaker 5: best athletes in the division in Matthew Semmelsberger. It was

755
00:34:14,239 --> 00:34:16,359
Speaker 5: a weird fight to judge because Wells got hurt and

756
00:34:16,400 --> 00:34:18,640
Speaker 5: then dominated the grappling, which we don't really know how

757
00:34:18,640 --> 00:34:21,000
Speaker 5: to score. I think judges do a good job of

758
00:34:21,040 --> 00:34:24,160
Speaker 5: rewarding how Wells gets his takedowns more than other people's.

759
00:34:24,360 --> 00:34:26,960
Speaker 5: They are all extremely violent. He doesn't drag you down

760
00:34:27,000 --> 00:34:29,560
Speaker 5: the way a wrestler does. He drives his shoulder through

761
00:34:29,560 --> 00:34:33,080
Speaker 5: you on his shots. Also mixes in some good trips

762
00:34:33,080 --> 00:34:35,120
Speaker 5: and throws and stuff that have some pretty high impact.

763
00:34:35,640 --> 00:34:37,759
Speaker 5: I love his top game. He does a really good

764
00:34:37,840 --> 00:34:40,320
Speaker 5: job when he's on top not giving any space following

765
00:34:40,320 --> 00:34:43,200
Speaker 5: your hips. It's really hard to get back up against him.

766
00:34:43,480 --> 00:34:45,640
Speaker 5: I also think the Semmelsburger fight dispelled some of the

767
00:34:45,680 --> 00:34:47,920
Speaker 5: myths that he has bad cardio because he dominated that

768
00:34:47,960 --> 00:34:51,400
Speaker 5: third round despite being nearly unconscious on multiple occasions.

769
00:34:52,080 --> 00:34:54,719
Speaker 4: Harris probably a slight.

770
00:34:54,480 --> 00:34:57,280
Speaker 5: Slight edge in the striking. Harris is a good grappler,

771
00:34:57,320 --> 00:34:59,560
Speaker 5: but he's got like a tall man grappler game where

772
00:34:59,560 --> 00:35:01,359
Speaker 5: he waits for you to shoot, then locks up front

773
00:35:01,360 --> 00:35:04,560
Speaker 5: headlocks and either spins behind or gets Anaconda's Darsy's that

774
00:35:04,680 --> 00:35:06,839
Speaker 5: kind of thing. None of that's gonna work on Wells.

775
00:35:06,880 --> 00:35:10,040
Speaker 5: Wells is just an elite jiu jitsu guy who's not

776
00:35:10,080 --> 00:35:12,440
Speaker 5: gonna be caught with those things. And they're both a

777
00:35:12,480 --> 00:35:14,239
Speaker 5: little bit old. They both I think only have four

778
00:35:14,239 --> 00:35:17,080
Speaker 5: fights in the UFC, but they're thirty six, so that's

779
00:35:17,120 --> 00:35:20,240
Speaker 5: not really a factor either way on these guys. And finally,

780
00:35:20,280 --> 00:35:22,840
Speaker 5: I just think Wells has a massive athleticism advantage, Like.

781
00:35:22,840 --> 00:35:24,640
Speaker 4: When he hits people, they just melt.

782
00:35:25,080 --> 00:35:27,319
Speaker 5: Where Harris he's knocked some guys out and he hits

783
00:35:27,400 --> 00:35:29,400
Speaker 5: kind of hard, but he hits hard because he's winging

784
00:35:29,400 --> 00:35:32,840
Speaker 5: weird punches from angles, where Wells just has that natural power.

785
00:35:33,400 --> 00:35:34,920
Speaker 5: I ultimately think this is gonna end up in a

786
00:35:34,960 --> 00:35:37,960
Speaker 5: grappling match, though, which Wells. I don't know if there's

787
00:35:37,960 --> 00:35:40,800
Speaker 5: a welterweight that I would take over Wells in a

788
00:35:40,840 --> 00:35:43,719
Speaker 5: grappling match right now, like in the UFC period, So

789
00:35:44,080 --> 00:35:46,680
Speaker 5: against the lower's not.

790
00:35:46,680 --> 00:35:53,120
Speaker 4: A welterweight anymore, he's going up. I'm not counting that Shotcott.

791
00:35:51,440 --> 00:35:54,759
Speaker 5: Maybe that might be the one, but so just you know,

792
00:35:54,800 --> 00:35:57,480
Speaker 5: we like guys who have the grappling edge. I think

793
00:35:57,640 --> 00:36:00,439
Speaker 5: the striking is not much worse than a coin flip,

794
00:36:00,480 --> 00:36:02,440
Speaker 5: if it's much worse at all. And I'm fourign oh

795
00:36:02,480 --> 00:36:04,200
Speaker 5: bet in Jeremiah Well's money line. So I'm not going

796
00:36:04,239 --> 00:36:05,000
Speaker 5: to stop now.

797
00:36:05,320 --> 00:36:08,360
Speaker 1: At a Boy Billy Had a Boy. Jeremiah Wells is

798
00:36:08,360 --> 00:36:11,800
Speaker 1: one of Billy's featured fighters undervalued fighters on his UFC

799
00:36:11,920 --> 00:36:15,280
Speaker 1: luck ratings right up this week over at Action Network

800
00:36:15,320 --> 00:36:18,919
Speaker 1: Action network dot Com. All right, good stuff. I thought,

801
00:36:18,960 --> 00:36:21,440
Speaker 1: you know, an underwhelming kind of show, possibly because the

802
00:36:21,680 --> 00:36:24,640
Speaker 1: big weekend we just had with the boxing and UFC

803
00:36:24,719 --> 00:36:27,279
Speaker 1: two ninety one. But man, I think people are going

804
00:36:27,320 --> 00:36:29,560
Speaker 1: to be excited to bet on UFC Nashville after that

805
00:36:30,120 --> 00:36:31,959
Speaker 1: particular podcast recording today.

806
00:36:32,280 --> 00:36:34,799
Speaker 3: No like stand out, amazing, gay cheep boya fight on

807
00:36:34,800 --> 00:36:36,560
Speaker 3: this card, But there's a lot of lot of solid

808
00:36:36,560 --> 00:36:39,759
Speaker 3: fights top to bottom. There's not many bad fights on

809
00:36:39,800 --> 00:36:40,200
Speaker 3: this card.

810
00:36:40,560 --> 00:36:42,799
Speaker 5: Every fight on the prelims, I thought, Wow, I can't

811
00:36:42,800 --> 00:36:44,080
Speaker 5: believe that's not a main card fight.

812
00:36:44,360 --> 00:36:45,719
Speaker 4: Yeah, and then you got up to the main card

813
00:36:45,719 --> 00:36:46,120
Speaker 4: and you're.

814
00:36:46,000 --> 00:36:47,680
Speaker 5: Like, but none of these jump out either, like it

815
00:36:47,840 --> 00:36:51,000
Speaker 5: exactly like you could this order in almost any way

816
00:36:51,080 --> 00:36:52,719
Speaker 5: and be like, yeah, no, those are all about it.

817
00:36:52,800 --> 00:36:55,040
Speaker 3: Right, It's eleven featured prelims in the main event.

818
00:36:55,360 --> 00:36:56,719
Speaker 4: There you go, love it?

819
00:36:57,120 --> 00:36:59,960
Speaker 1: Okay, Find Sean Zerrilo and Billy Ward in the Action app.

820
00:37:00,040 --> 00:37:04,719
Speaker 1: Should they add anything Live during the festivities in Nashville

821
00:37:04,760 --> 00:37:08,840
Speaker 1: or anything leading up to Saturday. That'll do it. Brendan

822
00:37:08,880 --> 00:37:12,280
Speaker 1: Glasheen signing off. Thanks to David Payne, our audio producer

823
00:37:12,360 --> 00:37:15,360
Speaker 1: today getting us up and running for those guys. Brendan Glasheen,

824
00:37:15,400 --> 00:37:18,560
Speaker 1: Thanks for tuning into the Action Network podcast presented by FanDuel.

825
00:37:18,600 --> 00:37:20,799
Speaker 1: Thanks for checking out our UFC betting preview. We'll talk

826
00:37:20,840 --> 00:37:21,919
Speaker 1: to you again next week.

827
00:37:22,040 --> 00:37:22,279
Speaker 3: See you.

828
00:37:27,080 --> 00:37:31,600
Speaker 1: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or

829
00:37:31,600 --> 00:37:34,400
Speaker 1: someone you care about has a gambling problem, help is

830
00:37:34,440 --> 00:37:37,560
Speaker 1: available twenty four to seven at one eight hundred Gambler