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Speaker 1: The Big Bets on Campus Podcast Podcast PODCA.

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Speaker 2: All right, here we go.

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Speaker 3: Spreading the court ten seconds ormatings.

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Speaker 2: It's gonna just go throw up to the brisket under

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Speaker 2: the basket. It's the truth for the wind a miracle.

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Speaker 2: I chuck the water, hit that one from the parking lot.

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Speaker 1: What's up the general nation? Welcome to the Big Bets

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Speaker 1: on Campus Podcast presented by Bett MGM. This is the

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Speaker 1: College Basketball Conference Tournament Betting Preview, Part seven. I'm stucky

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Speaker 1: and joining me as always on Monday mornings. B J Cunningham,

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Speaker 1: Mike Calburtyes and Colin Wilson will be joining us later

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Speaker 1: to talk to SCC. We'll talk a little bit about

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Speaker 1: what happened this weekend. Most importantly, we'll get to some

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Speaker 1: of the final conferences that we haven't covered yet if

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Speaker 1: you have not tuned into the previous episodes, especially at

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Speaker 1: parts four, five, and six, which will be relevant for

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Speaker 1: this week, which I recorded with each of the guys

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Speaker 1: from the Three Man Weave yesterday. Those are all out now,

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Speaker 1: but we will cover the remaining conferences. Colin, as I said,

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Speaker 1: he's gonna talk about a SEC. Mike was test with

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Speaker 1: the A ten BJ was tesked with trying to figure

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Speaker 1: out the puzzle of the Big Ten. And I'll share

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Speaker 1: some quick thoughts on the the conference that don't get

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Speaker 1: a lot of pub the MEAC, the Swack, and even

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Speaker 1: some Ivy madness which will start later this week as

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Speaker 1: a fourteen tournament. It's really sad. If you turn on

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Speaker 1: the the TV right now, it's like all you see

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Speaker 1: is like Aaron Rodgers or Daniel Jones or the Knicks.

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Speaker 1: How about spending some time on the MEAC. Anyway, we'll

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Speaker 1: cover the me ACT for the lack of pubblics out there. BJ.

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Speaker 1: I'll start with you, what's going on? Brother? Just when

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Speaker 1: you were high on Iowa, I'm still I don't really.

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Speaker 1: Then they lose at home the Nebraska.

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Speaker 4: I mean yeah, I mean Nebraska shot the lights out.

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Speaker 4: What are you gonna do?

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Speaker 5: That just seems happens over and over Tiowa. But no,

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Speaker 5: it's I mean, obviously a crazy weekend in college basketball.

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Speaker 4: We had a.

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Speaker 5: Ton of top teams go down right before the tournament started,

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Speaker 5: so the chaos is about to ensue. We've also had

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Speaker 5: a ton of buzzer beaters already. And I was talking

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Speaker 5: to Mike before and I was like, I hope we

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Speaker 5: haven't used all of them up yet, and I hope

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Speaker 5: that we don't get to a point in the tournament

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Speaker 5: where it's like, oh, this tournament we've been talking about

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Speaker 5: it for I don't know, two three months now, where

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Speaker 5: it's all it's so wide open and everything, and then

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Speaker 5: just we get no buzzer beaters and all the.

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Speaker 4: Favorites just go to the final four.

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Speaker 5: I really hope it doesn't happen, but I'm a little

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Speaker 5: nervous that, like the contrarian play of just being like, yeah,

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Speaker 5: all the number one season go to the final four

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Speaker 5: might happen. I don't know, we'll see, but yeah, I'm

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Speaker 5: ready for the chaos.

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Speaker 1: Watch your mouth. So does his optimism. It's it's March six.

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Speaker 1: It's this pessimism, and you're already saying we're not gonna

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Speaker 1: get a bad tournament.

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Speaker 4: I didn't say that.

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Speaker 5: I'm just I'm just I'm a little worried about maybe

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Speaker 5: there isn't as much chaos as we think.

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Speaker 1: Mike, any more optimism from your end or positivity you

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Speaker 1: want to share, Yeah, I got positivity.

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Speaker 3: I went ahead and played that twelve to one Chattanooga

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Speaker 3: Future and Jake Stevens showed up out of nowhere coming

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Speaker 3: back from broken hands. That was one of those rare moments.

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Speaker 3: I've been on the other side of this so many times.

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Speaker 3: In college basketball. You never really have any sure things

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Speaker 3: in terms of injuries, suspensions, all this stuff. It's almost

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Speaker 3: exclusively kind of like hearsay, but he ends up talking

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Speaker 3: it up the whole week that he's practicing and he's

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Speaker 3: going to do it. I ended up playing them in

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Speaker 3: their first game in that tournament, and now they're here

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Speaker 3: in the title game. So, as I brought up before,

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Speaker 3: this is what's fun about playing these mid major conferences.

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Speaker 3: You can take a shot on a team ten, fifteen,

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Speaker 3: twenty to one, and if they make it to the final,

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Speaker 3: it's a license to print money by hedging. So they're

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Speaker 3: up against Furman, I'm going to take a part of

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Speaker 3: that out and you know, realize some winnings there.

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Speaker 6: But yeah, that made me really.

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Speaker 3: Happy, and it also balanced out my Friday night having

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Speaker 3: New Mexico against Colorado State. And I threw this out

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Speaker 3: on Twitter, just like the shooting variants bullshit in college

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Speaker 3: basketball is infuriating. I want to say Colorado State banked

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Speaker 3: in two threes in the second half, and just if

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Speaker 3: it existed in any other sport, I think it would

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Speaker 3: be even more laughable. Like the analogy I pulled was

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Speaker 3: in golf. If like some random golfer just made like

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Speaker 3: eight or nine ten to fifteen footers in one tournament,

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Speaker 3: but the reaction would be.

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Speaker 6: Like, well, that's golf.

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Speaker 1: Well that's I'm.

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Speaker 6: Just gonna shoot sixty percent from three.

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Speaker 1: You start with some positivity and that devolved quickly. So, uh, yeah,

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Speaker 1: I have firm. Tonight's gonna be exciting for me because

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Speaker 1: I have South Alabama and Furman futures going at the

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Speaker 1: same time. I did hedge off a little bit of

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Speaker 1: both because I'm petrified of Steve. I watch out a

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Speaker 1: middle Furman for a little bit because you're catching six

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Speaker 1: or seven, And yeah, Chattanooga is dangerous with Steven's I

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Speaker 1: thought Fermae was gonna blow yesterday. What games yesterday? Even

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Speaker 1: you know NAU taking out the top seed late night

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Speaker 1: and on a buzzer beater. It was amazing. You want

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Speaker 1: to talk about a a bad tournament. You guys are

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Speaker 1: trying to talk about this tournament or Bjen ten years ago.

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Speaker 1: This is the ten year anniversary of the final edition

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Speaker 1: of the Great West Tournament, the Great West Conference for

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Speaker 1: those who do not remember, was in. The tournament was in,

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Speaker 1: it was disbanded. It was in Chicago. All five teams.

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Speaker 1: There was only five teams left. All five teams made

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Speaker 1: the conference tournament. The top three got a buy and

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Speaker 1: the winner did not get an automatic bid. That was

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Speaker 1: the worst tournament. What a tournament no automatic bid. Anyway,

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Speaker 1: we're going to talk some comments that do have automatic bids.

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Speaker 1: Let's start with the Atlantic ten puzzle. And I called

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Speaker 1: a puzzle because myself anyone that I respect that I

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Speaker 1: asked about it then and your guest is as good

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Speaker 1: as mine. So hopefully, Mike, you have a beat on this.

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Speaker 1: Looking at the tournament, this this conference certain that will

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Speaker 1: take place in Brooklyn, New York, at the Barkley Center.

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Speaker 1: All fifteen teams make it. May oh ma, how loyal

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Speaker 1: Chicago has fallen. They are the fifteen seed in the

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Speaker 1: A ten tournament visas the top overall seed. Tournament will

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Speaker 1: start on Tuesday. The first round. Three first round matchups.

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Speaker 1: We have five other teams get buys into the second round,

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Speaker 1: and then your top four seeds get buys into the

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Speaker 1: quarter finals. That's VCU and Saint Louis on the top

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Speaker 1: half of the bracket, Dayton and Fordham on the bottom

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Speaker 1: half of the bracket. Dayton is the two seed and

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Speaker 1: is actually the favorite to win the A ten. I

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Speaker 1: would assume part of that is because you know they're

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Speaker 1: gonna play the winner of GW and then Saint Jose

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Speaker 1: or Loola, Whereas you know you could have some trickier

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Speaker 1: matchups for Fordham, Saint Louis and VCU, and some would

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Speaker 1: argue David is the best team. They're rereally hard to

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Speaker 1: figure out. So let's just let's start in the first

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Speaker 1: the teams that are playing in the first round, Richmond, UMass,

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Speaker 1: Saint Joe's, Lola, Chicago, LaSalle, Rhode Island. Because in a

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Speaker 1: tournament that in a conference, it's just been so wide

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Speaker 1: open and so hard to figure out. Could have some

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Speaker 1: fun and take a long shot. Or any of those

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Speaker 1: teams that are playing in the first round. Now, look,

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Speaker 1: it would require them winning five games in six days.

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Speaker 1: You do get an off day on Friday. Or any

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Speaker 1: of those teams, your beloved Hawks who are playing better.

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Speaker 1: Are they worth a look? Any of those teams worth

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Speaker 1: looking at?

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Speaker 3: No, I'll just go ahead and rule these teams out

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Speaker 3: and beyond just where they finished in the A ten.

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Speaker 3: I like to look at sometimes you know, teams are

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Speaker 3: getting healthier, or they start to play well at the

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Speaker 3: end of the season, or they play well on the road,

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Speaker 3: you know Visa the they're over record.

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Speaker 1: None of those.

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Speaker 6: Teams check those boxes.

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Speaker 3: So when you look at these six teams and you

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Speaker 3: look at their how they finished the season, Richmond won

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Speaker 3: and four straight up, UMass two and seven, Saint Jose

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Speaker 3: one and four, Lasal lost their last five, Rhode Island

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Speaker 3: lost eight of their last nine, and Loyola lost for.

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Speaker 6: Their last five.

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Speaker 3: So none of them are coming in with any momentum

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Speaker 3: to turn it around. They all have major issues, mainly

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Speaker 3: on the defensive side, so I just don't see them

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Speaker 3: putting it together.

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Speaker 6: And historically in this tournament, it's.

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Speaker 3: Very rare for teams to even make it to the

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Speaker 3: title game having to win four games in four days,

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Speaker 3: let alone five games in five days. So with the

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Speaker 3: exception of you know, Richmond last year, for the most part,

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Speaker 3: this is a pretty chalky tournament in terms of who

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Speaker 3: punches their ticket for the automatic bit. So I'm just

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Speaker 3: going to go ahead and throw these six teams out

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Speaker 3: just right off the bat.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I would tend to agree with that. Now, the

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Speaker 1: one tabat I should note is that in the past

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Speaker 1: this conference has been a lot better. This might be

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Speaker 1: the worst A ten ever. This is the first time

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Speaker 1: there's no automatic I mean, there's no what's the word

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Speaker 1: I'm looking for, there's no potential at large candidate, not

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Speaker 1: one for the first time ever since the field expanded

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Speaker 1: to sixty four teams. If you were just going to

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Speaker 1: fire a dart from the first round, the only case

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Speaker 1: that I could make would be for Saint Joe's just

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Speaker 1: because they are playing better. And then that second round

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Speaker 1: matchup against GW that's the easiest by far, and then

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Speaker 1: you know, Dayton is just so erratic you never know

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Speaker 1: which date and you're gonna get. But I would agree,

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Speaker 1: I think you have to throw all those out. So

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Speaker 1: then moving on to the teams that start in the

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Speaker 1: second round, you have Davidson Bonaventure in the eight to

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Speaker 1: nine game, George Mason, the five seed. Interesting team because

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Speaker 1: they're super talented, but I mean they just me they

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Speaker 1: can't shoot free throws. They melt away games like it's

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Speaker 1: their job. Then I mentioned GW the seventh seed, Ducaine,

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Speaker 1: the sixth seed, any of the teams that start in

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Speaker 1: the second round, that five through nine, any of those

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Speaker 1: worth exploring.

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Speaker 3: And now it's time to start picking up some teams here,

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Speaker 3: because with how weak the conference is top to bottom,

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Speaker 3: I think there's a good shot for one of these

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Speaker 3: teams to make a run and win two games. And

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Speaker 3: when you look at some of the odds attached to

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Speaker 3: these teams, I'm going to go in and focus on

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Speaker 3: George Washington sixty five to one, and in the opposite

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Speaker 3: direction of those teams that I ruled out right at

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Speaker 3: the top. They finished four and one straight up down

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Speaker 3: the stretch, and they were within three of VCU in

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Speaker 3: the closing minute. As they're only lost there. Then do

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Speaker 3: they have a player that can take over. They have

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Speaker 3: the leading scorer in the A ten and conference play,

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Speaker 3: James Bishop fourth. He has the potential to take over.

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Speaker 3: The average over twenty two points per game, best in

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Speaker 3: the A ten on forty four point five percent shooting

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Speaker 3: from long range. And then as a team, they bring

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Speaker 3: plenty of the table offensively. They finish forty second nationally

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Speaker 3: in shooting efficiency, and this is another element that I really.

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Speaker 6: Like to be able to win this many games in

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Speaker 6: a short.

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Speaker 3: Period of time as an underdog, you gotta win in

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Speaker 3: close games. And they won their last six in games

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Speaker 3: decided by five points or less more games that went

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Speaker 3: to ot. So I view that as a huge positive

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Speaker 3: and my threshold for it. You know, I jotted down

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Speaker 3: some numbers before I even looked at what the futures

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Speaker 3: market said. I was thinking, you know, if I could

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Speaker 3: get fifty to one, so sixty five to one, I

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Speaker 3: think it's worth a shot. I think they match up

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Speaker 3: well with Saint Jose. It will be a high scoring game,

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Speaker 3: probably played in upper seventies eighties, and at that point

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Speaker 3: then you're in, you know, you have a shot to

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Speaker 3: take out one of the big boys, and at that point,

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Speaker 3: at sixty five to one, it's a great hedge opportunity.

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Speaker 6: So I like the Colonials.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, you mentioned that they're they've been good in close games.

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Speaker 1: They went four and all on overtime games since January

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Speaker 1: twenty fifth, and lead by Part of that is because

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Speaker 1: they're good at the line, right, and that can matter

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Speaker 1: in these games as well. Whereas George Mason loses a

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Speaker 1: ton of close games, blows a lot of leads. I

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Speaker 1: looked a won six straight to close the season, but

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Speaker 1: they're three hundred and fiftieth in the country in free

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Speaker 1: throw percentage sixty five percent. I mean, as they're actually

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Speaker 1: below sixty five percent on the year. I mean that

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Speaker 1: is that is just. But Joshua Door is super talented.

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Speaker 1: They lost Victor Baily, which matters. So it's hard for

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Speaker 1: me to make a case for them making a run,

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Speaker 1: especially you know they're down twenty five. They're like twenty

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Speaker 1: five to one. I think I would need just a

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Speaker 1: touch more. Would you agree on Mason?

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I would need more from George Mason. I agree

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Speaker 3: with your assessment. I think they're a very good team

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Speaker 3: in terms of overall talent level, but I like at

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Speaker 3: this point the resume is complete in terms of how

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Speaker 3: they play in close games, and for that reason, you

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Speaker 3: have to figure at least one or two of their

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Speaker 3: wins on the way to a conference title here would

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Speaker 3: be a close game.

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Speaker 6: So it's just not enough for me to buy in.

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Speaker 1: Yep, all right, So now moving on to the top

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Speaker 1: four seeds vs. US the top overall seed, they are

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Speaker 1: in the top half of the bracket with Saint Louis.

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Speaker 1: The four seed. If Chalk holds, VC would face Saint

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Speaker 1: Louis in the semi finals on Saturday on the bottom

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Speaker 1: half of the brackety of Dayton, who is the favorite

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Speaker 1: of plus one forty, and then ford them so and

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Speaker 1: then if the Chalk holds, those teams would also face

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Speaker 1: each other in the semis. So when you look at

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Speaker 1: these odds, the first thing that jumps out to me is, Okay,

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Speaker 1: you have the top four seeds who are all all

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Speaker 1: have buys to the quarterfinals. They just have to win

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Speaker 1: three games and four days off day Friday. And you

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Speaker 1: have Fordham, who's the allier here. I mean you have

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Speaker 1: Dayton plus one forty VCU plus two hundred, Saint Louis

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Speaker 1: plus five hundred, and then Fordham twelve to one. So

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Speaker 1: you know, one of the things that you have to

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Speaker 1: take into account is and Fordham is probably going to

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Speaker 1: play Ducane in their first game where they just waxed

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Speaker 1: by thirty and then they beat them on the road

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Speaker 1: earlier this year, which bodes well. But in two matchups

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Speaker 1: with they play Dayton once or twice. I think they

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Speaker 1: only played Dayton once at home and they got smoked,

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Speaker 1: they got leveled, and Dayton did whatever they wanted at

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Speaker 1: the rim. I think they were. They shot seventy six

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Speaker 1: percent from two in that game. But it's Dayton, so

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Speaker 1: is and look, Fordham has Quisenberry, Darius Quisenberry, who's capable

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Speaker 1: of just going off and carrying a team for a

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Speaker 1: game or two they played, you know, the Fordham plays

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Speaker 1: really good defense. Is are they miss priced? Are they

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Speaker 1: worth a flyer at twelve to one having they just

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Speaker 1: win three games or does you just you don't like

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Speaker 1: that matchup against Dayton too much?

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Speaker 3: I think they're mispriced pretty considerably. To be honest, once again,

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Speaker 3: I jobbed this down. I was like, you know, plus

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Speaker 3: seven to fifty, plus eight to one, I'd consider it

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Speaker 3: twelve to one. Absolutely signed me up. They're twenty fifth

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Speaker 3: in defensive efficiency. They finished the season, you know, eleven

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Speaker 3: and three in their last fourteen games. You mentioned Quizenberry

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Speaker 3: Colid Moore as well, so it's a solid insight outside duo.

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Speaker 3: They average, you know, post to thirty three points per

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Speaker 3: game between the two of them. I think the obvious issue,

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Speaker 3: other than the Dayton matchup, is that Keith Urgo has

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Speaker 3: never been a head coach until this season, so it's

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Speaker 3: basically this black box in terms of what is he

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Speaker 3: going to be like in conference tournament play. Now, you

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Speaker 3: could argue, you know, there's coaches in this tournament, like

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Speaker 3: Anthony Grant has never really been a very good tournament coach.

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Speaker 3: He's been he's only won more than one game one

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Speaker 3: or sorry, he's never won more than one game in

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Speaker 3: the A ten tournament.

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Speaker 6: So like that, that's a dating team that.

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Speaker 3: Was already potentially up and down, and you know, would

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Speaker 3: they be able to put together three good games in

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Speaker 3: a row.

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Speaker 1: I don't know.

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Speaker 3: At this price, I would say I'm not interested in it,

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Speaker 3: but yeah, Fordham in general, I think twelve to one

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Speaker 3: is absolutely worth it. And then when you look at

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Speaker 3: the rest of the board Vcu I have a lot

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Speaker 3: of nice things to say, and then one major concern. Defensively, Obviously,

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Speaker 3: they're great. They're top twenty five and Kempom defensive efficiency.

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Speaker 6: They attack the rim NonStop.

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Speaker 3: They get almost twenty three foul shots per game, they

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Speaker 3: don't rely on three at all. They lead the A

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Speaker 3: ten and forced turnovers at seventeen per game, which is

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Speaker 3: seventh nationally. But they're bad from the line two hundred

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Speaker 3: and twenty ninth as a team in that matchup. They're

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Speaker 3: probably going to get Davidson in the in their first game,

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Speaker 3: and they nearly lost to Davidson on the road, and

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Speaker 3: they lost straight up to Saint Bonnie's at home. So

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Speaker 3: either way, whoever they get there, it's not a cakewalk

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Speaker 3: in their first game. But the biggest concern is Ace

333
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Speaker 3: bald One. He's in a major shooting funk, which is

334
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Speaker 3: not the right time for him to be doing that

335
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Speaker 3: because he's, you know, the belcal for them offensively, seventeen

336
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Speaker 3: for fifty six in his last six games, and there's

337
00:16:12,760 --> 00:16:15,240
Speaker 3: multiple games think he went over ten and over nine.

338
00:16:15,680 --> 00:16:17,360
Speaker 3: They can't have that to be able to put it

339
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Speaker 3: together on the offensive end. Dayton, you know, we talked

340
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Speaker 3: about some of their deficiencies in terms of consistency, but

341
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Speaker 3: they get the best big in this tournament.

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Speaker 6: Homes.

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Speaker 3: The second is phenomenal. He averages eighteen and eight on

344
00:16:28,040 --> 00:16:30,600
Speaker 3: sixty percent shooting. They can really shoot as a team.

345
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Speaker 3: They're thirty second in shooting percentage. They're very strong on defense,

346
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Speaker 3: fifth and opponent effective shooting percentage, and they never send

347
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Speaker 3: teams to the line, which is something that can be

348
00:16:40,360 --> 00:16:43,080
Speaker 3: this great equalizer in tournament play. Where you have those

349
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Speaker 3: high variance games. You know, sometimes you don't shoot well

350
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Speaker 3: from three, but he gets to the line. They just

351
00:16:47,120 --> 00:16:49,160
Speaker 3: don't do that. But like I said, my concern is

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Speaker 3: about Anthony Grant at this point in his career. I

353
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Speaker 3: understand that that COVID year he probably would have won

354
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Speaker 3: the A ten going away, but he's never won more

355
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Speaker 3: than one game in this tournament. So that leaves me

356
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Speaker 3: with Saint Louis at five to one. That was exactly

357
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Speaker 3: what I circle them as you know before I looked

358
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Speaker 3: at this, so it's going to be a pass for me.

359
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Speaker 3: But when you look at what they've done and their

360
00:17:08,280 --> 00:17:11,480
Speaker 3: head coaches, experience and tournament play. So Travis Ford's nine

361
00:17:11,520 --> 00:17:13,800
Speaker 3: to four straight up in the A ten tournament, that's

362
00:17:13,840 --> 00:17:17,040
Speaker 3: a major plus. They nearly upset Auburn. They did upset

363
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Speaker 3: Providence in Memphis, so their high end is way up there.

364
00:17:20,440 --> 00:17:23,360
Speaker 3: Their path will likely take them to VCU, who they beat,

365
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Speaker 3: who beat them soundly twice. That's the biggest issue for me.

366
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Speaker 3: On the offensive end, Urick Collins is one of the

367
00:17:29,040 --> 00:17:31,720
Speaker 3: best facilitators in college hoops. He averages a double double

368
00:17:31,800 --> 00:17:35,639
Speaker 3: with assists every night. Their solid defensive rebounding team, but

369
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Speaker 3: at five to one it's not for me. So of

370
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Speaker 3: the four pack at the top, I'm probably going to

371
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Speaker 3: go with Dayton and Fordham, but probably a bigger play

372
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Speaker 3: on Fordham because I think this number is just really off.

373
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Speaker 1: Yeah, I completely agree with your assessment. I think that

374
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Speaker 1: if you're going to take a shot in me eighteenmage

375
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Speaker 1: I can't figure out at the current price, I think

376
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Speaker 1: you have to look at Fordham with their defense, a

377
00:17:55,960 --> 00:17:58,920
Speaker 1: guard that can carry them. My concern would be, look,

378
00:17:59,160 --> 00:18:02,160
Speaker 1: they don't match up well with Dayton. They really don't

379
00:18:02,160 --> 00:18:04,880
Speaker 1: match up well with the VCU either. Because they can

380
00:18:04,920 --> 00:18:07,360
Speaker 1: they will turn the ball over and when they played VCU,

381
00:18:07,920 --> 00:18:09,840
Speaker 1: I think they have like a thirty two or thirty

382
00:18:09,880 --> 00:18:12,400
Speaker 1: one percent turnover eight, so they'll call it up, which

383
00:18:12,440 --> 00:18:16,080
Speaker 1: is not great against VCU's pressure. But I expect just

384
00:18:16,200 --> 00:18:19,280
Speaker 1: chaos in this bracket overall. So like it's not necessarily

385
00:18:19,320 --> 00:18:22,280
Speaker 1: a given that even Dayton will be in the Semis

386
00:18:22,359 --> 00:18:25,240
Speaker 1: or VCU will be in the Championship, So why not

387
00:18:25,359 --> 00:18:26,840
Speaker 1: take you know, I don't I agree with that. I

388
00:18:26,880 --> 00:18:30,359
Speaker 1: don't think it's worth going into the dregs here for

389
00:18:30,560 --> 00:18:32,800
Speaker 1: a super long shot, but why not roll with Fordham

390
00:18:33,160 --> 00:18:35,199
Speaker 1: in it. It would just be fitting in this crazy

391
00:18:35,240 --> 00:18:39,639
Speaker 1: a ten year that Fordham gets the only bid and

392
00:18:39,760 --> 00:18:43,480
Speaker 1: makes the turn for the first time. It's nineteen ninety two.

393
00:18:43,640 --> 00:18:47,920
Speaker 1: I think go Rams shut out n costas anything you

394
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Speaker 1: want to mention for a first round matchup or anything

395
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Speaker 1: from a vetting perspective in a game by game basis, Yeah, it's.

396
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Speaker 6: Going to depend on the number.

397
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Speaker 3: But as long as Saint Joe's is less than a

398
00:18:56,600 --> 00:18:59,959
Speaker 3: five point favorite against Loyola, I mean they smacked him

399
00:19:00,160 --> 00:19:02,840
Speaker 3: rounds in their two meetings this year. And the key

400
00:19:02,960 --> 00:19:05,640
Speaker 3: is that the Rambers play slow, so can you get

401
00:19:05,680 --> 00:19:07,800
Speaker 3: them out of their comfort zone. Saint Jose did that twice.

402
00:19:07,800 --> 00:19:10,200
Speaker 3: They score in the eighties twice against them, and then

403
00:19:10,520 --> 00:19:12,400
Speaker 3: the Rambars do want to play slow, but then their

404
00:19:12,400 --> 00:19:14,879
Speaker 3: defense is horrific. They're two hundred ninety fourth and opponent

405
00:19:14,920 --> 00:19:17,480
Speaker 3: effective field goal percentage. They get killed on the glass.

406
00:19:17,520 --> 00:19:19,680
Speaker 3: They're in the high two hundreds in every metric. They

407
00:19:19,680 --> 00:19:21,920
Speaker 3: have the worst turnover margin in the eight ten at

408
00:19:22,359 --> 00:19:25,680
Speaker 3: negative five point one per game. That just incredibly bad,

409
00:19:25,680 --> 00:19:28,760
Speaker 3: so lots of extra opportunities for their opponents. Like I said,

410
00:19:28,760 --> 00:19:31,439
Speaker 3: Saint Jose won by thirty one at home, twelve on

411
00:19:31,520 --> 00:19:35,600
Speaker 3: the road, and then finally, Eric Reynolds has really blown

412
00:19:35,640 --> 00:19:37,560
Speaker 3: up down the stretch. He's averaged twenty three per game

413
00:19:37,560 --> 00:19:39,960
Speaker 3: in his last ten, scored thirty three points back to back,

414
00:19:40,200 --> 00:19:43,119
Speaker 3: including that runaway win against Richmond at home. So I

415
00:19:43,119 --> 00:19:46,719
Speaker 3: think Saint Jose of the Dregs is playing the best potentially,

416
00:19:46,960 --> 00:19:49,919
Speaker 3: but at least their high end on offense presents the

417
00:19:49,920 --> 00:19:53,200
Speaker 3: best opportunity to go ahead and book them on a bet. Here,

418
00:19:53,359 --> 00:19:55,560
Speaker 3: I'll go ahead and take Saint Jose up to minus five.

419
00:19:56,000 --> 00:19:58,800
Speaker 1: All right, Well, you're undefeated on the podcast, one to

420
00:19:58,880 --> 00:20:01,520
Speaker 1: zero giving out your hawks. So let's see if you

421
00:20:01,560 --> 00:20:03,600
Speaker 1: can it's number dependent. Let's see if you can make

422
00:20:03,640 --> 00:20:06,320
Speaker 1: it too and enough. All right, good stuff there, Michael.

423
00:20:06,359 --> 00:20:10,560
Speaker 1: Let's move on to the Big ten. This is a

424
00:20:10,560 --> 00:20:12,239
Speaker 1: puzzle if you look at if you just look at

425
00:20:12,240 --> 00:20:14,679
Speaker 1: this bracket and you say, okay, I mean there's so

426
00:20:14,720 --> 00:20:16,640
Speaker 1: many teams that you could make a case for making

427
00:20:16,720 --> 00:20:19,480
Speaker 1: a run. I mean, how even was it all year

428
00:20:19,520 --> 00:20:21,600
Speaker 1: and how much did home teams dominate? Well, it's not

429
00:20:21,640 --> 00:20:23,800
Speaker 1: going to be on anyone's home court. It even came

430
00:20:23,840 --> 00:20:26,320
Speaker 1: down to the last game where the scoreboard was smoking

431
00:20:27,400 --> 00:20:32,520
Speaker 1: in at Rutgers at the rack, and if Northwestern lost

432
00:20:32,520 --> 00:20:34,120
Speaker 1: that game, they would have been a nine seed. They

433
00:20:34,119 --> 00:20:38,160
Speaker 1: wanted to their two seed. In saying the seeding, I

434
00:20:38,200 --> 00:20:40,680
Speaker 1: came down to the final day in the final game

435
00:20:41,119 --> 00:20:43,080
Speaker 1: with a seven seed difference. I don't think I've ever

436
00:20:43,119 --> 00:20:47,120
Speaker 1: seen that in my entire life. Big Ten Tournament obviously

437
00:20:47,160 --> 00:20:51,280
Speaker 1: starts on Wednesday and in Chicago at the United Center.

438
00:20:51,359 --> 00:20:54,520
Speaker 1: It'll go to till Sunday with the championships. So the

439
00:20:54,640 --> 00:20:57,879
Speaker 1: teams that are starting in the first round, Wisconsint my

440
00:20:57,960 --> 00:21:02,320
Speaker 1: beloved Buckeyes is playing really well despite injuries. You got

441
00:21:02,400 --> 00:21:05,399
Speaker 1: to give Fred Oidberger a ton of credit. And Minnesota's

442
00:21:05,400 --> 00:21:07,159
Speaker 1: played for a little better of late. Those teams have

443
00:21:07,200 --> 00:21:12,720
Speaker 1: to win five games in five days. The team's playing

444
00:21:12,720 --> 00:21:15,879
Speaker 1: on the start on the second day. Iowa fell to

445
00:21:15,920 --> 00:21:19,960
Speaker 1: the five seed. Then Michigan and Rutgers will play in

446
00:21:20,000 --> 00:21:22,520
Speaker 1: the eight nine. You could argue, I don't know if

447
00:21:22,560 --> 00:21:25,159
Speaker 1: Rutgers is safely in anymore. You could argue that's like

448
00:21:25,200 --> 00:21:29,120
Speaker 1: a whoever loses that game is out. I think Michigan loses,

449
00:21:29,119 --> 00:21:32,000
Speaker 1: they're definitely out. And then because if you win that game,

450
00:21:32,640 --> 00:21:34,920
Speaker 1: then you get to play Perdue and so I don't

451
00:21:34,960 --> 00:21:37,080
Speaker 1: know that. Then you have on the bottom half Illinois,

452
00:21:37,080 --> 00:21:40,280
Speaker 1: Penn State, Maryland, and then your top four seeds who

453
00:21:40,400 --> 00:21:43,480
Speaker 1: received double buys into the quarters on Friday. Give Purdue

454
00:21:43,800 --> 00:21:45,880
Speaker 1: and Michigan State in the top half of the bracket,

455
00:21:45,920 --> 00:21:48,480
Speaker 1: Northwestern and Indiana on the bottom half of the bracket.

456
00:21:48,720 --> 00:21:50,600
Speaker 1: When this bracket came out, a lot of people said,

457
00:21:50,600 --> 00:21:53,120
Speaker 1: look this the draw really broke well for Indiana because

458
00:21:53,119 --> 00:21:56,040
Speaker 1: you're going to get the winner of Maryland versus Nebraska Minnesota,

459
00:21:56,280 --> 00:21:59,159
Speaker 1: and then they have Northwestern as the two seed. Maryland

460
00:21:59,200 --> 00:22:01,520
Speaker 1: obviously has not been got away from home, but you

461
00:22:01,520 --> 00:22:04,280
Speaker 1: know Indiana hasn't. No one in this conference really has

462
00:22:04,320 --> 00:22:07,520
Speaker 1: been great away from home. So BJ break it down

463
00:22:07,560 --> 00:22:09,840
Speaker 1: for us, where do you want to start? Do you

464
00:22:09,880 --> 00:22:11,560
Speaker 1: want to just start high level? Do you want to

465
00:22:11,560 --> 00:22:15,600
Speaker 1: start with the low the lowest seeds the top half?

466
00:22:15,640 --> 00:22:17,120
Speaker 1: Tell me how you want to you go here?

467
00:22:17,359 --> 00:22:19,440
Speaker 5: Well, the first thing with the lowest seeds I think

468
00:22:19,560 --> 00:22:22,240
Speaker 5: is I don't think either of them have any of

469
00:22:22,400 --> 00:22:24,159
Speaker 5: those four that you mentioned to have a chance of

470
00:22:24,160 --> 00:22:26,640
Speaker 5: winning five games in five days. If you look historically

471
00:22:26,640 --> 00:22:29,440
Speaker 5: through the Big Ten tournaments, the highest seed ever to

472
00:22:29,480 --> 00:22:31,199
Speaker 5: win the Big Ten Tournament was an eight seed. It

473
00:22:31,240 --> 00:22:33,400
Speaker 5: was Michigan in twenty seventeen, getting all the way backs

474
00:22:33,400 --> 00:22:35,520
Speaker 5: in nineteen ninety eight. So I don't think any of

475
00:22:35,560 --> 00:22:38,040
Speaker 5: those teams really have a shot in Ohio State. I mean,

476
00:22:38,080 --> 00:22:40,280
Speaker 5: they needed to prove it against Michigan State on Saturday,

477
00:22:40,320 --> 00:22:43,280
Speaker 5: and they didn't. So they're pretty much out for me.

478
00:22:43,359 --> 00:22:46,199
Speaker 1: They covered, they covered, they covers all that matters, and

479
00:22:46,240 --> 00:22:48,760
Speaker 1: we will be vetting them again, I guess, Hescott said.

480
00:22:48,760 --> 00:22:51,040
Speaker 1: And yeah, by the way, I agree with you, but

481
00:22:51,880 --> 00:22:55,479
Speaker 1: don't doubt my Buckos are winning the next eleven games.

482
00:22:55,640 --> 00:22:57,920
Speaker 1: But if you're going to do that, they're They're fifty

483
00:22:57,920 --> 00:23:00,560
Speaker 1: five to one Wisconsin fifty five to one, Barrasca's two

484
00:23:00,600 --> 00:23:04,879
Speaker 1: fifty Minnesota's like you win, you win the GDP of

485
00:23:04,920 --> 00:23:08,280
Speaker 1: the US. If they win, they're down there butt and

486
00:23:08,320 --> 00:23:10,400
Speaker 1: then produce the favorite plus one forty Indiana plus five

487
00:23:10,400 --> 00:23:12,680
Speaker 1: to fifty Maryland right around there, in Michigan State right

488
00:23:12,680 --> 00:23:14,800
Speaker 1: around there. And then you have the second tier at

489
00:23:14,800 --> 00:23:17,680
Speaker 1: Northwestern plus eight fifty, Illinois eleven to one, Iowa twenty

490
00:23:17,680 --> 00:23:19,760
Speaker 1: two to one, Michigan twenty five to one, Penn State

491
00:23:19,760 --> 00:23:22,040
Speaker 1: twenty five to one. Shop around. But that's kind of

492
00:23:22,080 --> 00:23:24,680
Speaker 1: how the futures sloft. But I will say Wisconsin Ohio State,

493
00:23:24,720 --> 00:23:28,320
Speaker 1: that game should be around a pick and the odds

494
00:23:28,320 --> 00:23:30,280
Speaker 1: are fifty to one. I will tell you they got

495
00:23:30,320 --> 00:23:32,840
Speaker 1: to win five games in five days. You know, their

496
00:23:33,040 --> 00:23:37,720
Speaker 1: first three opponents each other, then Iowa, then Michigan State,

497
00:23:37,880 --> 00:23:41,320
Speaker 1: then most likely Purdue, and then you know Indian Northwestern

498
00:23:41,320 --> 00:23:44,040
Speaker 1: teams that are power rated. Similarly, that's five games that

499
00:23:44,080 --> 00:23:47,040
Speaker 1: will win five days. If you moneyline, parlay them, or

500
00:23:47,080 --> 00:23:48,920
Speaker 1: just look at the implied odds, it's about one hundred

501
00:23:48,920 --> 00:23:51,320
Speaker 1: and fifty to one. So there's zero value in fifty

502
00:23:51,359 --> 00:23:53,679
Speaker 1: to one. If you do like Ohio State, if you

503
00:23:53,760 --> 00:23:56,840
Speaker 1: like Wisconsin, if you like Nebraska, if you like Minnesota,

504
00:23:57,119 --> 00:23:58,680
Speaker 1: bet them on the money line in the first game

505
00:23:59,040 --> 00:24:01,440
Speaker 1: and well especially with cot to NATO State, and then

506
00:24:01,520 --> 00:24:03,560
Speaker 1: roll it over. There is no value in fifty to

507
00:24:03,560 --> 00:24:06,520
Speaker 1: one in winning five games in five days, especially because

508
00:24:06,520 --> 00:24:08,040
Speaker 1: you know there are opponents like the first three, and

509
00:24:08,080 --> 00:24:10,280
Speaker 1: like they're going to play tournament teams all the way through.

510
00:24:10,320 --> 00:24:13,960
Speaker 1: It's not like you could also have a crazy team

511
00:24:14,000 --> 00:24:15,399
Speaker 1: come out of nowhere and you get to play them

512
00:24:15,400 --> 00:24:18,560
Speaker 1: in the semis. So anyway, I digress. So let's move

513
00:24:18,600 --> 00:24:21,520
Speaker 1: on to kind of the mid tier. So we're crossing

514
00:24:21,520 --> 00:24:24,000
Speaker 1: off eleven, twelve, thirteen to fourteen that are playing in

515
00:24:24,000 --> 00:24:27,920
Speaker 1: the first round. Teams in the second round, Michigan Rutgers

516
00:24:27,920 --> 00:24:31,280
Speaker 1: will play each other. Winner gets per due, So if

517
00:24:31,280 --> 00:24:33,159
Speaker 1: you have a strong feeling who wins that game, that

518
00:24:33,240 --> 00:24:36,239
Speaker 1: might be an interesting way to attack this. Then you

519
00:24:36,240 --> 00:24:38,840
Speaker 1: have Iowa the five seed, the defending champs. They will

520
00:24:38,840 --> 00:24:40,520
Speaker 1: get the winner of Wisconsin outa state. Then if they

521
00:24:40,560 --> 00:24:43,520
Speaker 1: win that, they play Michigan State. Down the bottom half

522
00:24:43,560 --> 00:24:46,879
Speaker 1: the teams that start on Day two the Illinois Penn State.

523
00:24:47,240 --> 00:24:49,520
Speaker 1: Heard a lot of people talk about Illinois is a

524
00:24:49,560 --> 00:24:52,360
Speaker 1: potential sleeper here. The problem is they couldn't beat Penn

525
00:24:52,440 --> 00:24:54,359
Speaker 1: State during the regular season. They lost twice. They couldn't

526
00:24:54,359 --> 00:24:58,000
Speaker 1: stop Jalen Pickett. And then you have Maryland away from home. Maryland,

527
00:24:58,080 --> 00:25:00,000
Speaker 1: can you really trust them to win four games away

528
00:25:00,040 --> 00:25:02,719
Speaker 1: from home? So I have these teams searching looking at

529
00:25:02,760 --> 00:25:04,720
Speaker 1: just five through ten. What do you see?

530
00:25:04,840 --> 00:25:06,439
Speaker 5: I mean, I first have to go with my Hawks

531
00:25:06,480 --> 00:25:09,360
Speaker 5: obviously at twenty two to one, I think what you've

532
00:25:09,359 --> 00:25:10,480
Speaker 5: seen from Iowa this season.

533
00:25:10,800 --> 00:25:13,760
Speaker 1: I'm gonna rename this podcast the Hawks podcast just Saint

534
00:25:13,840 --> 00:25:14,840
Speaker 1: Jose in Iowa.

535
00:25:15,280 --> 00:25:18,120
Speaker 5: Yeah, I mean, the thing about Iowa is you've seen

536
00:25:18,119 --> 00:25:21,639
Speaker 5: it down the stretch here is their ceiling is incredibly high,

537
00:25:21,720 --> 00:25:24,439
Speaker 5: and obviously they're very three point variance type team. But

538
00:25:24,480 --> 00:25:27,320
Speaker 5: even going to Bloomington and putting up ninety points and

539
00:25:27,320 --> 00:25:29,479
Speaker 5: shooting thirteen of twenty three from beyond the arc like

540
00:25:29,520 --> 00:25:32,199
Speaker 5: that was an incredibly good performance. Yes, they did just

541
00:25:32,240 --> 00:25:34,679
Speaker 5: lose a home to Nebraska, so they played themselves out

542
00:25:34,680 --> 00:25:36,720
Speaker 5: of the way of a double bye. So they'll likely

543
00:25:36,760 --> 00:25:38,720
Speaker 5: get the winner like you mentioned of Ohio State, or

544
00:25:38,760 --> 00:25:41,320
Speaker 5: they will get the winner of Ohio State or Wisconsin.

545
00:25:42,119 --> 00:25:44,600
Speaker 5: But you know, they lost to Wisconsin twice this year.

546
00:25:44,720 --> 00:25:45,760
Speaker 4: One of them was on de severer.

547
00:25:45,840 --> 00:25:49,240
Speaker 5: Eleventh in overtime at home, and they went to Wisconsin

548
00:25:49,320 --> 00:25:51,040
Speaker 5: and had one of their worst shooting performances of the

549
00:25:51,200 --> 00:25:54,680
Speaker 5: entire season. But the Iowa offenses is very, very good.

550
00:25:54,760 --> 00:25:57,199
Speaker 5: They don't shoot themselves in the foot. Their eighth in

551
00:25:57,200 --> 00:26:00,800
Speaker 5: turnal per percentage allowed nationally, their second in the Big Ten,

552
00:26:00,840 --> 00:26:02,800
Speaker 5: and offensive rebounding percentage, and they get to the free

553
00:26:02,840 --> 00:26:05,439
Speaker 5: throw at a decently high rate. So it's not like

554
00:26:05,520 --> 00:26:08,040
Speaker 5: Iowa was just this completely three point dependent team where

555
00:26:08,040 --> 00:26:10,120
Speaker 5: if they go in it's great. If not, then it's

556
00:26:10,320 --> 00:26:13,360
Speaker 5: you know it's gonna go bad. But the flip side

557
00:26:13,359 --> 00:26:15,200
Speaker 5: of it is is their defense is really bad. Right

558
00:26:15,240 --> 00:26:17,080
Speaker 5: They're they're dead last in the Big Ten and both

559
00:26:17,080 --> 00:26:19,679
Speaker 5: two point and three point field goal percentage allowed. But

560
00:26:19,840 --> 00:26:21,400
Speaker 5: if you look at their shot quality numbers mean they're

561
00:26:21,400 --> 00:26:23,400
Speaker 5: allowing forty percent from beyond the arc in Big Ten

562
00:26:23,720 --> 00:26:25,880
Speaker 5: and Big Ten play. If you look at shat quality,

563
00:26:25,880 --> 00:26:27,800
Speaker 5: they should be allowing around thirty four percent, and you know,

564
00:26:27,840 --> 00:26:30,000
Speaker 5: mid range and post up jumpers, they should be allowing

565
00:26:30,040 --> 00:26:33,159
Speaker 5: eleven point five percent less from the field. There, the

566
00:26:33,200 --> 00:26:35,399
Speaker 5: Iowa defense is top three in the Big Ten at

567
00:26:35,400 --> 00:26:38,480
Speaker 5: turning opponents over, They're an above average defensive rebounding team.

568
00:26:38,480 --> 00:26:40,679
Speaker 4: They're fifteenth in the country and free throw rate allowed.

569
00:26:41,000 --> 00:26:43,840
Speaker 5: So if teams just don't get outrageously hot against them,

570
00:26:43,880 --> 00:26:47,600
Speaker 5: like you saw against Nebraska in that final game, suddenly

571
00:26:47,720 --> 00:26:51,720
Speaker 5: Iowa becomes a very attractive team in this type of tournament.

572
00:26:51,760 --> 00:26:53,240
Speaker 4: And listen, they won the tournament.

573
00:26:53,000 --> 00:26:55,280
Speaker 5: As a five seed last year, so it's not like

574
00:26:55,280 --> 00:26:58,560
Speaker 5: they're not capable of winning four games in four days.

575
00:26:58,600 --> 00:27:01,440
Speaker 5: They just did it last year. So they played Purdue

576
00:27:01,440 --> 00:27:03,320
Speaker 5: pretty well. On the other they're gonna obviously be on

577
00:27:03,359 --> 00:27:06,480
Speaker 5: the side against Purdue. The Michigan State game will probably

578
00:27:06,920 --> 00:27:08,639
Speaker 5: be a pretty insane one as well, because if you

579
00:27:08,680 --> 00:27:11,640
Speaker 5: remember they they had a chance to win at East

580
00:27:11,720 --> 00:27:13,560
Speaker 5: Lansing and they blew it towards the end, and then

581
00:27:13,560 --> 00:27:16,120
Speaker 5: obviously they had the insane comeback against them at Carver

582
00:27:16,200 --> 00:27:19,720
Speaker 5: Hawkeye Arena. But for a team that has great metrics

583
00:27:19,760 --> 00:27:23,440
Speaker 5: outside of just you know, shooting numbers, at twenty two

584
00:27:23,440 --> 00:27:25,880
Speaker 5: to one, I think is a fantastic price for.

585
00:27:25,800 --> 00:27:28,560
Speaker 4: My Hawkeyes to win, to win the Big Ten tournament.

586
00:27:28,600 --> 00:27:31,160
Speaker 5: So from that middle tier, I like, I don't hate

587
00:27:31,480 --> 00:27:33,720
Speaker 5: a shot on Michigan. I like them their matchup against

588
00:27:33,760 --> 00:27:35,320
Speaker 5: Michigan in the first round a lot a lot.

589
00:27:35,400 --> 00:27:38,000
Speaker 1: But against Rutgers.

590
00:27:37,800 --> 00:27:41,280
Speaker 5: Yeah, against Rutgers, excuse me, but you know, especially a

591
00:27:41,320 --> 00:27:42,760
Speaker 5: twenty five to one a team that just played three

592
00:27:42,800 --> 00:27:46,280
Speaker 5: overtime games attend the stretch. It's a team that's very,

593
00:27:46,359 --> 00:27:48,000
Speaker 5: very good defensively as well. They're number one in the

594
00:27:48,040 --> 00:27:50,359
Speaker 5: Big Ten in effective field a walle percentage allowed. They

595
00:27:50,359 --> 00:27:53,320
Speaker 5: obviously have a ton of size down low with Hunter Dickinson,

596
00:27:53,680 --> 00:27:55,439
Speaker 5: and they've had a lot of late game variants go

597
00:27:55,480 --> 00:27:59,080
Speaker 5: against them. So at the middle tier, I don't hate

598
00:27:59,080 --> 00:28:01,640
Speaker 5: a shot on Michigan again at twenty five to one

599
00:28:01,640 --> 00:28:02,840
Speaker 5: in Iowa twenty two to one.

600
00:28:03,280 --> 00:28:06,840
Speaker 1: Yeah, that's that's tough. That three overtime games in a

601
00:28:06,920 --> 00:28:08,240
Speaker 1: row to end the season, and then they're gonna have

602
00:28:08,240 --> 00:28:13,000
Speaker 1: to win four in four days. I do think Iowa

603
00:28:13,000 --> 00:28:14,960
Speaker 1: matched up pretty well with Michigan State. He recalled both

604
00:28:14,960 --> 00:28:17,880
Speaker 1: those games like they couldn't make a wide open three

605
00:28:17,960 --> 00:28:19,880
Speaker 1: or free throw in that first game against Michigan State

606
00:28:19,880 --> 00:28:22,680
Speaker 1: and then Michigan State. You know, Iowa eventually obviously got

607
00:28:22,800 --> 00:28:25,199
Speaker 1: lucky in the final minute, but Michigan State was like

608
00:28:25,320 --> 00:28:27,920
Speaker 1: twelve or fifteen from three in that game before then.

609
00:28:28,440 --> 00:28:31,119
Speaker 1: So I actually think they match up pretty well. My

610
00:28:31,200 --> 00:28:33,560
Speaker 1: one concerned IWA is like, do you do you think

611
00:28:33,960 --> 00:28:38,880
Speaker 1: that they're like are they that they're not the deepest team,

612
00:28:39,080 --> 00:28:41,440
Speaker 1: but like, do you think that sometimes they look they've

613
00:28:41,480 --> 00:28:45,120
Speaker 1: looked tired down the stretch. Chris Marry in particular, I

614
00:28:45,160 --> 00:28:47,040
Speaker 1: don't know, I is he like fully healthy him, he's

615
00:28:47,080 --> 00:28:50,560
Speaker 1: not ten of his past forty from three. One part

616
00:28:50,560 --> 00:28:53,240
Speaker 1: of me says, okay, that they've they've actually are due

617
00:28:53,280 --> 00:28:56,400
Speaker 1: for some positive shooting regression overall, the other says like

618
00:28:56,440 --> 00:28:59,040
Speaker 1: are they are they a little bit tired or fatigued?

619
00:28:59,160 --> 00:29:00,960
Speaker 1: Do you see any of that watching this team closely?

620
00:29:01,440 --> 00:29:03,760
Speaker 5: I mean yes, you could definitely make a case for that.

621
00:29:03,800 --> 00:29:05,440
Speaker 5: I mean, they're two hundred and forty ninth in bench

622
00:29:05,520 --> 00:29:08,680
Speaker 5: minutes and they've been without de Sante Brown, who's one

623
00:29:08,680 --> 00:29:11,000
Speaker 5: of their bench guys.

624
00:29:11,560 --> 00:29:13,200
Speaker 4: You know, he doesn't play a decent percentage.

625
00:29:13,240 --> 00:29:15,600
Speaker 5: But again, again it's it's big when you're only playing

626
00:29:15,640 --> 00:29:18,280
Speaker 5: you know, a six or seven man rotation. Yeah, it's tough,

627
00:29:18,320 --> 00:29:21,960
Speaker 5: you know, it's it's obviously been a very emotional down

628
00:29:21,960 --> 00:29:24,160
Speaker 5: the stretch here, winning that overtime game against Michigan State

629
00:29:24,200 --> 00:29:25,760
Speaker 5: and then winning in Bloomington, and it's just you know,

630
00:29:25,800 --> 00:29:28,840
Speaker 5: it was a big time letdown spot against Nebraska. So yeah,

631
00:29:28,840 --> 00:29:31,000
Speaker 5: four games in four days is tough. But you know

632
00:29:31,160 --> 00:29:33,920
Speaker 5: that's also why they're twenty two to one. So we'll

633
00:29:33,920 --> 00:29:36,120
Speaker 5: see what happens. But I think this team is very,

634
00:29:36,440 --> 00:29:39,560
Speaker 5: very capable of getting that positive shooting regression.

635
00:29:39,160 --> 00:29:40,600
Speaker 4: And making a run here in this tournament.

636
00:29:41,440 --> 00:29:44,760
Speaker 1: Yeah, and like there's not one team where you say, oh, well,

637
00:29:44,760 --> 00:29:46,000
Speaker 1: they're good on the road, so.

638
00:29:45,960 --> 00:29:48,800
Speaker 5: Like, yeah, I mean every whole tournament's wide open, like

639
00:29:48,840 --> 00:29:51,240
Speaker 5: it nobody would, like you mentioned off the top, like

640
00:29:51,280 --> 00:29:54,600
Speaker 5: nobody would really completely I mean, like Minnesota would obviously

641
00:29:54,640 --> 00:29:57,040
Speaker 5: shock me, but like there's no team in this tournament

642
00:29:57,040 --> 00:29:58,560
Speaker 5: where I'd be like, they win it, and it's like,

643
00:29:58,880 --> 00:30:02,360
Speaker 5: oh yeah, like of cour we saw that coming, right, yeah.

644
00:30:02,280 --> 00:30:05,640
Speaker 1: All right. But then moving on to the top four seeds,

645
00:30:06,160 --> 00:30:09,240
Speaker 1: you have Purdue in the top half the Then you

646
00:30:09,280 --> 00:30:11,840
Speaker 1: have Michigan State. We already talked about them, and you

647
00:30:11,960 --> 00:30:14,880
Speaker 1: like iwa as a shot. We like that matchup I

648
00:30:15,040 --> 00:30:18,000
Speaker 1: against Michigan State. Then you have Northwestern who's plus eight

649
00:30:18,120 --> 00:30:21,680
Speaker 1: fifty Michigan States plus six hundred produce plus one forty.

650
00:30:22,560 --> 00:30:27,880
Speaker 1: And then you have Indiana, who's sitting at plus five fifty.

651
00:30:28,600 --> 00:30:32,360
Speaker 1: Given how wide open this league is, I don't know

652
00:30:32,400 --> 00:30:36,200
Speaker 1: if it's necessarily the right approach to take any of

653
00:30:36,240 --> 00:30:39,600
Speaker 1: those four teams. You know, maybe you could make a

654
00:30:39,640 --> 00:30:44,160
Speaker 1: case that like Northwestern just isn't getting enough respect because

655
00:30:44,160 --> 00:30:46,280
Speaker 1: they have the double buy and their plus eight to fifty,

656
00:30:46,360 --> 00:30:48,800
Speaker 1: they just have to win three games. What are your

657
00:30:48,840 --> 00:30:52,160
Speaker 1: thoughts on the well before I ask you that, I mean,

658
00:30:52,200 --> 00:30:54,800
Speaker 1: I could just tell you real quick when I like

659
00:30:54,920 --> 00:31:00,320
Speaker 1: just power ratings wise, I have Purdue at like thirty

660
00:30:59,880 --> 00:31:05,520
Speaker 1: five percent, So there is zero value in plus one

661
00:31:05,600 --> 00:31:07,840
Speaker 1: forty I'll tell you that. But any thoughts on the

662
00:31:07,840 --> 00:31:09,440
Speaker 1: top four seats, Yeah, I agree with you.

663
00:31:09,480 --> 00:31:11,400
Speaker 5: I don't think I'm gonna be playing any of these

664
00:31:11,400 --> 00:31:15,400
Speaker 5: top four seeds. I mean, like, I obviously love our

665
00:31:15,400 --> 00:31:18,200
Speaker 5: Indiana ticket at fifty to one, I think they're still fine,

666
00:31:18,440 --> 00:31:20,640
Speaker 5: but like, there's no way I'm gonna play them a

667
00:31:20,720 --> 00:31:23,000
Speaker 5: five to one, especially even if their bracket sets up,

668
00:31:23,000 --> 00:31:25,240
Speaker 5: even their side of the bracket sets up pretty easily,

669
00:31:26,080 --> 00:31:28,040
Speaker 5: There's just there's just no value in that same thing

670
00:31:28,040 --> 00:31:30,120
Speaker 5: with Northwestern, Like, I agree with you, you could make

671
00:31:30,160 --> 00:31:31,400
Speaker 5: a case I was.

672
00:31:31,440 --> 00:31:31,960
Speaker 1: Kind of looking at that.

673
00:31:32,080 --> 00:31:33,600
Speaker 5: I was like, Northwestern nine to one, and they're on

674
00:31:33,600 --> 00:31:38,040
Speaker 5: the easier side of the bracket maybe, but if you

675
00:31:38,080 --> 00:31:40,160
Speaker 5: look at their shot quality numbers, I mean, their defense

676
00:31:40,240 --> 00:31:43,000
Speaker 5: is due for a ton of negative progression shooting wise,

677
00:31:43,120 --> 00:31:45,360
Speaker 5: So if one of these teams gets hot against them,

678
00:31:45,400 --> 00:31:47,160
Speaker 5: it's like, can their offense compete with that? I mean,

679
00:31:47,200 --> 00:31:49,080
Speaker 5: they're outside the top one hundred and Ken Palm and

680
00:31:49,120 --> 00:31:52,600
Speaker 5: adjusted offensive efficiency and even like just purely looking at

681
00:31:52,600 --> 00:31:56,360
Speaker 5: adjusted efficiency differential, I mean Northwestern's forty third in the country,

682
00:31:56,400 --> 00:31:59,880
Speaker 5: and then you have one, two, three, four, five teams

683
00:32:00,040 --> 00:32:01,440
Speaker 5: lining them in the Big Ten that are ahead of

684
00:32:01,480 --> 00:32:05,720
Speaker 5: them in that category. So yeah, it's so the price

685
00:32:05,800 --> 00:32:08,320
Speaker 5: is probably okay on Northwestern. Yeah, I agree with you.

686
00:32:08,320 --> 00:32:10,000
Speaker 5: I don't think playing any of these top four seeds

687
00:32:10,040 --> 00:32:12,800
Speaker 5: is the right call, and just taking a shot on

688
00:32:12,800 --> 00:32:13,400
Speaker 5: one of these.

689
00:32:13,480 --> 00:32:15,400
Speaker 4: Whatever team you kind of like in that middle range,

690
00:32:15,760 --> 00:32:18,000
Speaker 4: I think is the way to play the Big Ten tournament.

691
00:32:18,360 --> 00:32:20,600
Speaker 1: Yeah, the bottom that's really interesting because like Penn State's

692
00:32:20,600 --> 00:32:23,640
Speaker 1: SETI seven and they beat every single team in their

693
00:32:23,760 --> 00:32:26,120
Speaker 1: bottom half of the bracket. They're a really tough.

694
00:32:26,440 --> 00:32:30,120
Speaker 5: With their metrics are so weird. They're dead last in

695
00:32:30,120 --> 00:32:32,640
Speaker 5: the country an offensive rebounding percentage and free throw rate,

696
00:32:32,680 --> 00:32:36,120
Speaker 5: and they're just incredibly reliant on jump shooting, so if

697
00:32:36,160 --> 00:32:39,280
Speaker 5: they go cold, they're out of the tournament essentially. But

698
00:32:39,320 --> 00:32:40,840
Speaker 5: they're very good at that, Like they're a very good

699
00:32:40,840 --> 00:32:43,040
Speaker 5: three point shooting team. They don't turn the ball over.

700
00:32:43,520 --> 00:32:47,800
Speaker 5: But again, it's like they're just entirely reliant on shooting

701
00:32:47,840 --> 00:32:48,480
Speaker 5: the ball from the.

702
00:32:48,400 --> 00:32:50,840
Speaker 4: Floor, which can be a deterrent or it can be good.

703
00:32:50,880 --> 00:32:51,680
Speaker 4: It can go either way.

704
00:32:51,720 --> 00:32:54,320
Speaker 5: So they're a very weird and interesting team to try

705
00:32:54,360 --> 00:32:56,160
Speaker 5: to figure out, especially in this tournament.

706
00:32:56,320 --> 00:32:58,720
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean Jalen Picker can certainly carry them in

707
00:32:58,800 --> 00:33:01,080
Speaker 1: a tournament setting, but I mean I kind of like, oh,

708
00:33:01,280 --> 00:33:03,320
Speaker 1: I don't know who's going to win that game, which

709
00:33:04,240 --> 00:33:06,600
Speaker 1: so I'm so conflicted on it. But you know, given

710
00:33:06,680 --> 00:33:11,880
Speaker 1: the price differential you have, Penn State is at twenty

711
00:33:11,880 --> 00:33:14,040
Speaker 1: five to one, in Illinois at eleven to one, So

712
00:33:14,520 --> 00:33:16,960
Speaker 1: I would if I'm going to side with someone down there,

713
00:33:17,560 --> 00:33:19,479
Speaker 1: it would be if you have a strong feeling, if

714
00:33:19,520 --> 00:33:21,080
Speaker 1: you're just want to go from a price perspective, I

715
00:33:21,120 --> 00:33:24,760
Speaker 1: would look at Penn State, really old veteran team as well.

716
00:33:24,880 --> 00:33:27,160
Speaker 1: And then you know the reason the case that I

717
00:33:27,160 --> 00:33:28,880
Speaker 1: can make for a Northwestern is they have the double

718
00:33:28,920 --> 00:33:32,600
Speaker 1: buy and they actually swept Indiana. That's their most likely opponent.

719
00:33:33,080 --> 00:33:34,400
Speaker 1: But I don't know if they get by Illinois or

720
00:33:34,400 --> 00:33:36,360
Speaker 1: Penn State, their most likely opponent will be Indiana. They

721
00:33:36,360 --> 00:33:41,160
Speaker 1: swept Indiana. Northwestern has really quick, like bo Bowie, everything

722
00:33:41,240 --> 00:33:43,480
Speaker 1: off the dribble. He initiates everything off the drible. Indiana

723
00:33:43,520 --> 00:33:45,800
Speaker 1: doesn't really think their weakness is their perimeter defense. They

724
00:33:45,840 --> 00:33:47,640
Speaker 1: don't have guards who can like stay in front of

725
00:33:47,720 --> 00:33:51,000
Speaker 1: him and Northwestern's defense they build it all to stop

726
00:33:51,040 --> 00:33:53,640
Speaker 1: the post, which is great in a Big Ten. Now

727
00:33:53,640 --> 00:33:54,959
Speaker 1: I think they're going to be in trouble once they

728
00:33:54,960 --> 00:33:56,520
Speaker 1: get to the tournament. And this happens to a lot

729
00:33:56,520 --> 00:33:59,520
Speaker 1: of Big Ten teams that are you play a lot

730
00:33:59,560 --> 00:34:01,560
Speaker 1: of posts heavy. You see a lot of post heavy

731
00:34:01,560 --> 00:34:03,800
Speaker 1: teams in the Big Ten, and then those teams that

732
00:34:03,840 --> 00:34:06,160
Speaker 1: get into the tournament where it's more about guards, then

733
00:34:06,400 --> 00:34:09,680
Speaker 1: you know there's there's some struggles there. So they're gonna

734
00:34:09,760 --> 00:34:11,480
Speaker 1: run into some teams that have guards that can give

735
00:34:11,520 --> 00:34:13,520
Speaker 1: their guards issues. And then you can stay in front

736
00:34:13,560 --> 00:34:17,040
Speaker 1: of Bobui in company. But it's not the worst matchup.

737
00:34:17,040 --> 00:34:20,319
Speaker 1: We're getting a much better price on Northwestern. I just

738
00:34:20,400 --> 00:34:23,480
Speaker 1: think overall, it's this puzzle is too hard for me

739
00:34:23,520 --> 00:34:26,279
Speaker 1: to crack. So I'm gonna stay away, root for your

740
00:34:26,320 --> 00:34:28,799
Speaker 1: Hawkeye future, and I will be betting. Well maybe not

741
00:34:28,880 --> 00:34:30,680
Speaker 1: only if I would be to Ohio State, I'll betting

742
00:34:30,680 --> 00:34:33,279
Speaker 1: ohiast or if you know Wisconsin bets High State. We

743
00:34:33,280 --> 00:34:35,080
Speaker 1: were on a mission to just keep betting ohiost it

744
00:34:35,120 --> 00:34:37,080
Speaker 1: so they don't cover Mike. Do you have any thoughts

745
00:34:37,080 --> 00:34:37,560
Speaker 1: in the big time?

746
00:34:37,760 --> 00:34:39,000
Speaker 6: I actually like Northwestern.

747
00:34:39,600 --> 00:34:42,080
Speaker 3: I agree with kind of your breakdown where it's like,

748
00:34:42,120 --> 00:34:44,120
Speaker 3: if they can get by that first game, whether it's

749
00:34:44,120 --> 00:34:48,040
Speaker 3: Illinois or Penn State, they obviously match up well with

750
00:34:48,040 --> 00:34:52,040
Speaker 3: with Indiana, and in general, I just as kind of

751
00:34:52,040 --> 00:34:53,880
Speaker 3: a principle this year, at least in terms of my

752
00:34:53,920 --> 00:34:57,080
Speaker 3: portfolio and backing more of these defensive teams to try

753
00:34:57,120 --> 00:35:00,600
Speaker 3: to put it together. You know, the idea from college

754
00:35:00,600 --> 00:35:02,520
Speaker 3: football as well, where it's like defense travels.

755
00:35:02,520 --> 00:35:03,320
Speaker 6: We'll see if that's.

756
00:35:03,200 --> 00:35:05,400
Speaker 3: True, but I think there is a little bit of

757
00:35:05,480 --> 00:35:06,960
Speaker 3: value on them at this number.

758
00:35:07,360 --> 00:35:08,319
Speaker 6: Overall, I think it.

759
00:35:08,280 --> 00:35:10,880
Speaker 3: Does make sense to balance out your portfolio with a

760
00:35:10,920 --> 00:35:13,080
Speaker 3: longer shot whoever you want in that kind of middle

761
00:35:13,080 --> 00:35:14,680
Speaker 3: tier who were you know, they have.

762
00:35:14,680 --> 00:35:16,240
Speaker 6: One extra round of games to play.

763
00:35:16,840 --> 00:35:19,759
Speaker 3: But overall, I don't hate that I will play either,

764
00:35:20,040 --> 00:35:22,799
Speaker 3: just because of what they can do offensively when things

765
00:35:22,800 --> 00:35:23,680
Speaker 3: start clicking for them.

766
00:35:24,000 --> 00:35:25,640
Speaker 1: Yeah, north I mean we talk about all the home

767
00:35:25,680 --> 00:35:28,600
Speaker 1: court the crazy home court advantage in the Big Ten.

768
00:35:28,920 --> 00:35:31,160
Speaker 1: One case you can make is Northwestern doesn't really have

769
00:35:31,400 --> 00:35:33,440
Speaker 1: a great home court advantage, So like the team that

770
00:35:33,480 --> 00:35:36,320
Speaker 1: would be hurt the least from playing on a neutral court,

771
00:35:36,440 --> 00:35:38,880
Speaker 1: right or that doesn't get as big of a boost

772
00:35:38,880 --> 00:35:41,239
Speaker 1: at home, it would be Northwestern, even though this game

773
00:35:41,320 --> 00:35:46,440
Speaker 1: is in the tournaments in Chicago. You're like, if Northwestern

774
00:35:46,480 --> 00:35:50,240
Speaker 1: plays Indiana, there's gonna be a shit on more Indiana

775
00:35:50,280 --> 00:35:53,439
Speaker 1: fans despite the proximity. All right, good stuff there, BJ

776
00:35:53,600 --> 00:35:58,880
Speaker 1: Before we get to Colin and I'll share some thoughts

777
00:35:59,239 --> 00:36:05,080
Speaker 1: before we close on the other three conferences tonight, and

778
00:36:05,200 --> 00:36:07,640
Speaker 1: he looks for tonight, I'll start. I think Idaho State

779
00:36:07,719 --> 00:36:12,320
Speaker 1: I like Towsandktchen six. That line has come down. Idaho's

780
00:36:12,320 --> 00:36:14,120
Speaker 1: state plus five and a half. I think they're playing

781
00:36:14,120 --> 00:36:15,520
Speaker 1: really good best, but they got that's some bat three

782
00:36:15,520 --> 00:36:17,719
Speaker 1: point variance against Montana. I don't think there's these two

783
00:36:17,800 --> 00:36:21,359
Speaker 1: teams are that far apart. I think that's a good bet. Mike,

784
00:36:21,360 --> 00:36:22,360
Speaker 1: did you have anything for tonight?

785
00:36:22,719 --> 00:36:25,320
Speaker 3: I mean I basically said that Tavison was going to

786
00:36:25,360 --> 00:36:27,920
Speaker 3: get Charles in trouble. If they got them, they're drawing them.

787
00:36:27,960 --> 00:36:29,799
Speaker 3: They're about plus twenty eighty on the money line. Their

788
00:36:29,800 --> 00:36:33,560
Speaker 3: offense was just on fire in the last game. I

789
00:36:33,600 --> 00:36:35,640
Speaker 3: haven't been a believer in Charleston all year, so this

790
00:36:35,680 --> 00:36:37,120
Speaker 3: is put up a shut up time. I'm gonna take

791
00:36:37,120 --> 00:36:39,600
Speaker 3: the Tigers. I think Timberlake will have another big game

792
00:36:39,960 --> 00:36:41,799
Speaker 3: and they'll do what they always do, which is they'll

793
00:36:41,880 --> 00:36:44,279
Speaker 3: crash the glass and then it's just fingers crossed that

794
00:36:44,360 --> 00:36:46,920
Speaker 3: Charleston doesn't bury fifteen or sixteen threes because they're going

795
00:36:46,960 --> 00:36:48,760
Speaker 3: to take at least thirty in this game.

796
00:36:49,400 --> 00:36:50,160
Speaker 6: So that's my play.

797
00:36:50,560 --> 00:36:52,480
Speaker 1: Yeah, love it. That game should be awesome though. I'm

798
00:36:52,520 --> 00:36:55,200
Speaker 1: really looking forward to it. BJ anything for tonight.

799
00:36:55,840 --> 00:36:58,640
Speaker 5: How about BYU plus seven against Saint Mary's in the

800
00:36:58,719 --> 00:36:59,640
Speaker 5: WCC tournament.

801
00:36:59,640 --> 00:37:01,800
Speaker 1: I mean they've played them really tough in both meetings.

802
00:37:01,800 --> 00:37:04,000
Speaker 5: If you recalled, Saint Mary's needed a late jumper to

803
00:37:04,040 --> 00:37:08,400
Speaker 5: beat them at the buzzer in provo. It's a BYU

804
00:37:08,440 --> 00:37:10,319
Speaker 5: team that's you know, they're on their third game in

805
00:37:10,360 --> 00:37:12,719
Speaker 5: three days here, but you know they're a very good

806
00:37:12,760 --> 00:37:15,960
Speaker 5: rebounding team, which you can neutralize one of the biggest

807
00:37:15,960 --> 00:37:18,719
Speaker 5: advantages of Saint Mary's offense. And you know, like we

808
00:37:18,760 --> 00:37:20,879
Speaker 5: talked about in these tournaments, a lot of Riom familiarity

809
00:37:21,280 --> 00:37:23,640
Speaker 5: playing to the first two games, so I could see

810
00:37:23,640 --> 00:37:26,600
Speaker 5: Saint Mary's come out on a little bit of a

811
00:37:26,600 --> 00:37:27,400
Speaker 5: a little rusty.

812
00:37:27,800 --> 00:37:29,919
Speaker 4: So I like BYU who's played them close in both games.

813
00:37:29,960 --> 00:37:33,879
Speaker 1: Episode like that as well. All right, as we wait

814
00:37:33,920 --> 00:37:36,760
Speaker 1: for Colin to join, and I'll say, let's see, let's

815
00:37:36,800 --> 00:37:42,560
Speaker 1: go a little. Let's pull up the meac. Let's start

816
00:37:42,600 --> 00:37:45,040
Speaker 1: with some meak. I gotta pull up the odds, all right,

817
00:37:45,080 --> 00:37:48,520
Speaker 1: me in the meac which this will be played in Norfolk,

818
00:37:48,600 --> 00:37:52,000
Speaker 1: but not at Norfolks, Jim, I believe it's like at

819
00:37:51,760 --> 00:37:57,120
Speaker 1: a swape arena. And it starts on Wednesday. A team bracket.

820
00:37:57,360 --> 00:38:01,240
Speaker 1: Howard is the one seed, just a BA SIC eight

821
00:38:01,280 --> 00:38:05,520
Speaker 1: team bracket. NC Central is the two seed. Norfolk State

822
00:38:05,600 --> 00:38:07,359
Speaker 1: is the three seed on the bottom half.

823
00:38:07,400 --> 00:38:07,640
Speaker 2: Odds.

824
00:38:07,800 --> 00:38:12,960
Speaker 1: NC Central's actually the favorite plus one fifty Norfolk States

825
00:38:13,000 --> 00:38:15,359
Speaker 1: plus two to sixty. Howard is plus three thirty even

826
00:38:15,360 --> 00:38:17,960
Speaker 1: though they're the one seed. So really interesting odds in

827
00:38:18,000 --> 00:38:21,239
Speaker 1: that Howard is on top half of the bracket as

828
00:38:21,280 --> 00:38:24,239
Speaker 1: the one seed Norfolk State and NC Central or the

829
00:38:24,239 --> 00:38:26,000
Speaker 1: two three seeds, they have the best odds, even though

830
00:38:26,000 --> 00:38:29,719
Speaker 1: they'd have to presumably play each other in the semi finals.

831
00:38:30,360 --> 00:38:33,560
Speaker 1: You could argue that Howard has value just on that alone,

832
00:38:34,080 --> 00:38:38,080
Speaker 1: but I would not think Howard. Look the way that

833
00:38:38,120 --> 00:38:40,280
Speaker 1: Howard plays, and look they have like a Maryland transfer,

834
00:38:40,600 --> 00:38:42,680
Speaker 1: a pen transfer that the talented team that could shoot

835
00:38:42,680 --> 00:38:45,200
Speaker 1: the three. It's a helter skelter like. Basically, this conference

836
00:38:45,480 --> 00:38:48,040
Speaker 1: is a bunch of helter skelter teams. And then you

837
00:38:48,040 --> 00:38:52,640
Speaker 1: have Norfolk State who runs like this funky zone, extends

838
00:38:52,719 --> 00:38:55,239
Speaker 1: pressure and they really make you work on the defensive

839
00:38:55,320 --> 00:38:59,319
Speaker 1: end or when you're on offense. They're really experienced team.

840
00:38:59,360 --> 00:39:02,160
Speaker 1: They won this comp for its last year. The problem

841
00:39:02,239 --> 00:39:04,560
Speaker 1: is they struggled down the stretch. They got blown out.

842
00:39:04,719 --> 00:39:06,800
Speaker 1: They lost it against n C Central in overtime, but

843
00:39:06,840 --> 00:39:09,960
Speaker 1: their best player didn't play suspended. They got blown out

844
00:39:10,000 --> 00:39:12,600
Speaker 1: at Howard in a smack. It was a really good spot.

845
00:39:12,600 --> 00:39:14,000
Speaker 1: I was shocked they got blown out and then they

846
00:39:14,040 --> 00:39:17,000
Speaker 1: lost at home to coopp and State COP and State

847
00:39:17,200 --> 00:39:19,440
Speaker 1: sam systems of everyone members from Penn State's on that team.

848
00:39:19,440 --> 00:39:21,319
Speaker 1: They have some talent, but they're really erratic. A lot

849
00:39:21,360 --> 00:39:23,239
Speaker 1: of these teams are really radical full turn it over

850
00:39:23,239 --> 00:39:27,120
Speaker 1: their forced turnovers. But just in the tournament setting in Norfolk,

851
00:39:27,160 --> 00:39:32,080
Speaker 1: by the way, I trust this Norfolk team. Bryant was

852
00:39:32,080 --> 00:39:34,040
Speaker 1: dealing with an ankle injury down the stretch. He's their

853
00:39:34,040 --> 00:39:38,360
Speaker 1: best player by far, that is my main concern. But

854
00:39:39,200 --> 00:39:43,080
Speaker 1: if he's somewhat healthy. I think that there's that they

855
00:39:43,080 --> 00:39:45,680
Speaker 1: match up well with NC Central and I would love

856
00:39:45,760 --> 00:39:49,480
Speaker 1: to get a third match up with Howard that this

857
00:39:49,560 --> 00:39:51,600
Speaker 1: veteran team will be ready for it, and I think

858
00:39:51,640 --> 00:39:55,360
Speaker 1: that their style is just more conducive to this tournament,

859
00:39:55,480 --> 00:39:59,399
Speaker 1: especially in Norfolk. So I'm going to go with Norfolk State,

860
00:39:59,440 --> 00:40:01,719
Speaker 1: who I think getting at value because of the way

861
00:40:01,719 --> 00:40:04,480
Speaker 1: that they stumbled down the stretch. I don't think that

862
00:40:04,520 --> 00:40:08,000
Speaker 1: they should have higher odds than NC Central, So I

863
00:40:08,000 --> 00:40:09,799
Speaker 1: think you can maybe find three to one out there.

864
00:40:10,200 --> 00:40:11,960
Speaker 1: I think that is the way to go, and I

865
00:40:12,000 --> 00:40:15,840
Speaker 1: think we will see them dancing again. That's assuming Brian

866
00:40:15,920 --> 00:40:19,040
Speaker 1: is healthy. He's like their closer, their lead guard. So

867
00:40:19,160 --> 00:40:21,480
Speaker 1: it is something to watch and it's somewhat of a concern.

868
00:40:21,640 --> 00:40:25,360
Speaker 1: But I do still think that there's value Ivy madness.

869
00:40:25,600 --> 00:40:27,520
Speaker 1: We pull up the Ivy madness.

870
00:40:27,160 --> 00:40:28,120
Speaker 6: While you're pulling that up.

871
00:40:28,200 --> 00:40:31,320
Speaker 3: I will definitely go Compenstate sixty to one, just because

872
00:40:31,360 --> 00:40:34,840
Speaker 3: they played well. They beat Norfolk the last time they played.

873
00:40:35,040 --> 00:40:39,200
Speaker 3: I love Sam sessms. I agree they're like the variants

874
00:40:39,200 --> 00:40:40,920
Speaker 3: on these teams, like they could get blown up by

875
00:40:40,960 --> 00:40:43,800
Speaker 3: thirty points. They could also win this game at another

876
00:40:44,239 --> 00:40:46,960
Speaker 3: so the fact is only eighteen tournament, and I like

877
00:40:47,040 --> 00:40:49,880
Speaker 3: their first round matchup to get to the semis. Sixty

878
00:40:49,920 --> 00:40:52,319
Speaker 3: to one caught my attention. I love the back court

879
00:40:52,360 --> 00:40:53,040
Speaker 3: for the Eagles.

880
00:40:53,320 --> 00:40:55,200
Speaker 1: Yeah, to be ax weird. If you want to take

881
00:40:55,239 --> 00:40:57,000
Speaker 1: a shot and we'll talk about the swack, it's the

882
00:40:57,000 --> 00:41:00,680
Speaker 1: same thing. Just do it. Ivy Madness. Top four teams

883
00:41:01,600 --> 00:41:06,880
Speaker 1: make it. It'll be played in Princeton, start Saturday with

884
00:41:06,960 --> 00:41:10,680
Speaker 1: both semifinals games. Championship Sunday. I think that's always at

885
00:41:10,680 --> 00:41:15,799
Speaker 1: noon on ESPN two. Yale Cornell, Yell play Cornell, then

886
00:41:15,840 --> 00:41:18,440
Speaker 1: Princeton will play Penn. I'm rolling with Penn. I don't

887
00:41:18,440 --> 00:41:20,359
Speaker 1: there's no I don't think there's any odds out anywhere yet,

888
00:41:20,400 --> 00:41:23,040
Speaker 1: but they should be you know, there's none of these

889
00:41:23,080 --> 00:41:25,200
Speaker 1: teams are way better than the rest. I think Yale

890
00:41:25,200 --> 00:41:28,799
Speaker 1: will probably be the favorite because they have the you know,

891
00:41:28,920 --> 00:41:32,040
Speaker 1: easiest path, because they get to play Cornell, who who's

892
00:41:32,080 --> 00:41:34,760
Speaker 1: still pretty good. They're similarly rated to depend in Princeton

893
00:41:34,800 --> 00:41:38,879
Speaker 1: and Yale's Yale's the highest rated team. But I love

894
00:41:38,920 --> 00:41:41,920
Speaker 1: that Penn just blew this. You know, they got swept

895
00:41:41,920 --> 00:41:44,359
Speaker 1: by Princeton, but they had that game in their last

896
00:41:44,360 --> 00:41:46,200
Speaker 1: regal season. The game, they had that game in control

897
00:41:46,239 --> 00:41:48,520
Speaker 1: and they blew it bad. But I like the way

898
00:41:48,560 --> 00:41:51,320
Speaker 1: that they match up with them. I'm riding with Jordan Dingle.

899
00:41:51,480 --> 00:41:54,560
Speaker 1: I think he's going dancing be price dependent, but I'm

900
00:41:54,600 --> 00:41:56,360
Speaker 1: rolling with Penn here. If you want to bet Ivy

901
00:41:56,360 --> 00:41:59,200
Speaker 1: madness with me, yet, anything you follow the IVY at

902
00:41:59,200 --> 00:42:01,279
Speaker 1: all might be anything here. I do.

903
00:42:01,480 --> 00:42:04,480
Speaker 3: I love Princeton, I've been riding with them for most

904
00:42:04,480 --> 00:42:07,279
Speaker 3: of this season. A Woma in general, I think is

905
00:42:07,360 --> 00:42:10,200
Speaker 3: just one of the more underrated mid major bigs. But

906
00:42:10,200 --> 00:42:12,359
Speaker 3: it's hard for me to go against Jordan Dingle because

907
00:42:12,400 --> 00:42:15,200
Speaker 3: if he does play and live up to his you know,

908
00:42:15,719 --> 00:42:19,400
Speaker 3: his talent level and cut down on his turnovers, there's

909
00:42:19,440 --> 00:42:22,080
Speaker 3: no reason why they can't win, you know, these two games.

910
00:42:22,120 --> 00:42:25,279
Speaker 3: So if you're gonna take it something with a little

911
00:42:25,280 --> 00:42:27,640
Speaker 3: bit of added value, I agree that whatever the future's

912
00:42:27,640 --> 00:42:30,040
Speaker 3: outs come out, no one's going to be a super

913
00:42:30,080 --> 00:42:32,800
Speaker 3: long shot to win this thing. So yeah, I'm not

914
00:42:32,840 --> 00:42:35,040
Speaker 3: going to say anything bad against Dingle, but I will

915
00:42:35,040 --> 00:42:38,800
Speaker 3: say from a college fantasy sports perspective, I've watched him

916
00:42:38,840 --> 00:42:41,279
Speaker 3: for years now and he does struggle with turnovers. So

917
00:42:41,280 --> 00:42:43,160
Speaker 3: if he has one of those games where you know

918
00:42:43,200 --> 00:42:44,719
Speaker 3: he's putting the ball in the basket, but he turns

919
00:42:44,760 --> 00:42:46,920
Speaker 3: it over six or seven times. That's kind of problematic

920
00:42:46,920 --> 00:42:47,759
Speaker 3: for the Quakers.

921
00:42:48,400 --> 00:42:50,080
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, well, he has that he ticks like

922
00:42:50,160 --> 00:42:53,840
Speaker 1: a so there are times where he tries to do

923
00:42:53,880 --> 00:42:55,480
Speaker 1: a little bit too much because he has to do

924
00:42:55,480 --> 00:42:57,520
Speaker 1: everything pretty much for that team. He takes like every shot,

925
00:42:57,560 --> 00:42:59,600
Speaker 1: and yeah, if you have it, if you've never watched

926
00:42:59,640 --> 00:43:03,719
Speaker 1: him before, he is worth watching. And they would have

927
00:43:03,760 --> 00:43:04,960
Speaker 1: won nine in a row to close the year if

928
00:43:04,960 --> 00:43:07,440
Speaker 1: they didn't blow somehow blow that game against Princeton and

929
00:43:07,440 --> 00:43:10,279
Speaker 1: losing overtime. They've just played in that gym to close

930
00:43:10,320 --> 00:43:13,200
Speaker 1: the year. But I think they get their revenge on Saturday,

931
00:43:13,200 --> 00:43:15,080
Speaker 1: and you'll probably get a good prices. This is in Princeton,

932
00:43:15,120 --> 00:43:17,719
Speaker 1: so there'll be an underdog in that game, so they

933
00:43:17,800 --> 00:43:21,840
Speaker 1: might actually be the that they'll be the third longest odds.

934
00:43:22,080 --> 00:43:25,239
Speaker 1: All right. One other tournament that I want to talk

935
00:43:25,239 --> 00:43:34,360
Speaker 1: about is the swack Swacktion. Can we get serious? Alcorn

936
00:43:34,520 --> 00:43:37,799
Speaker 1: State is the one seed. The two seed is Grambling.

937
00:43:38,160 --> 00:43:40,840
Speaker 1: Grambling is the favorite because they'll play the Thune Cookman

938
00:43:40,880 --> 00:43:43,279
Speaker 1: who stinks out loud. I don't know how the Thune

939
00:43:43,280 --> 00:43:45,279
Speaker 1: Cookman got and only the top eight make it here.

940
00:43:45,440 --> 00:43:49,800
Speaker 1: This tournament's played in Birmingham. Starts March eighth, Regular eighteen tournament,

941
00:43:49,840 --> 00:43:52,680
Speaker 1: just like the MIAK Championship on March eleventh. I mean,

942
00:43:53,200 --> 00:43:55,239
Speaker 1: my wh when I look at this, I mean like

943
00:43:55,440 --> 00:43:59,120
Speaker 1: you look at teams like Grambling wants to play up

944
00:43:59,160 --> 00:44:02,560
Speaker 1: and down and you know they can shoot the three.

945
00:44:03,360 --> 00:44:06,840
Speaker 1: Their defense is really good, that's kind of what they do.

946
00:44:06,960 --> 00:44:10,120
Speaker 1: They rest their laurels on. Their offense can struggle at times.

947
00:44:10,280 --> 00:44:12,680
Speaker 1: It's not as bad as like Prairie View. Now praier

948
00:44:12,760 --> 00:44:14,400
Speaker 1: View is a really good defense, but they have no

949
00:44:14,520 --> 00:44:18,360
Speaker 1: offense to speak of, which I think will ultimately limit them.

950
00:44:18,680 --> 00:44:21,160
Speaker 1: But if I'm mad, I have your same settiment which

951
00:44:21,160 --> 00:44:23,920
Speaker 1: you have with the MIAK. This is a perfect these

952
00:44:23,960 --> 00:44:26,400
Speaker 1: to these teams in this conference are not that far apart.

953
00:44:26,440 --> 00:44:31,000
Speaker 1: Grambling is the highest rated team efficiently efficiency wise, but

954
00:44:31,320 --> 00:44:33,960
Speaker 1: it's a team that will turn it over. They'll force

955
00:44:34,440 --> 00:44:36,640
Speaker 1: you know, they'll they'll turn it over a ton. They

956
00:44:36,640 --> 00:44:38,640
Speaker 1: force a ton of turnovers, they get to the line

957
00:44:38,680 --> 00:44:41,040
Speaker 1: a ton, they'll foul a ton, just high variance. They

958
00:44:41,040 --> 00:44:45,000
Speaker 1: also cannot shoot free throws, which I think could end

959
00:44:45,080 --> 00:44:47,000
Speaker 1: up doing them. And if you look at who they

960
00:44:47,080 --> 00:44:49,400
Speaker 1: lost to this year, you know they lost the Southern,

961
00:44:49,400 --> 00:44:51,680
Speaker 1: they lost the Prairie View. They beat Southern and overtime.

962
00:44:52,360 --> 00:44:55,640
Speaker 1: But that first, you know Grambling. If you look at

963
00:44:55,640 --> 00:44:59,960
Speaker 1: the bracket, Grambling will have to play the Thune Cook

964
00:45:00,040 --> 00:45:01,960
Speaker 1: and who they should get by, which is the You know,

965
00:45:01,960 --> 00:45:03,839
Speaker 1: if you're going to take Grambling, that's the good thing

966
00:45:03,880 --> 00:45:06,399
Speaker 1: is that they should get to the semis. But then

967
00:45:06,640 --> 00:45:10,799
Speaker 1: you know they would play Prairie View potentially in the

968
00:45:10,800 --> 00:45:13,680
Speaker 1: second round, who they lost to on the road by

969
00:45:13,719 --> 00:45:16,120
Speaker 1: one and then they won by four at home. That

970
00:45:16,280 --> 00:45:19,400
Speaker 1: is not an easy game for them. Jackson State is

971
00:45:19,440 --> 00:45:22,880
Speaker 1: playing a lot better, So I don't think it's necessarily

972
00:45:23,160 --> 00:45:25,279
Speaker 1: a given that Grambling, who's the favorite, is going to

973
00:45:25,360 --> 00:45:27,279
Speaker 1: get to the finals. There is no value in this

974
00:45:27,360 --> 00:45:29,360
Speaker 1: Grambling number. But I'm going to take a shot in

975
00:45:29,400 --> 00:45:33,400
Speaker 1: the top half of the conference. The eight seed Texas Southern,

976
00:45:33,960 --> 00:45:37,120
Speaker 1: who plays the one to start this is a team

977
00:45:37,120 --> 00:45:41,040
Speaker 1: that beat that won at Arizona State earlier this season.

978
00:45:41,320 --> 00:45:44,680
Speaker 1: They don't do anything exceptionally well, but they don't do

979
00:45:44,719 --> 00:45:50,200
Speaker 1: anything exceptionally bad besides shoot free throws. But that's a

980
00:45:50,200 --> 00:45:52,840
Speaker 1: common theme. But this is a team that won the

981
00:45:52,920 --> 00:45:55,480
Speaker 1: league last year with a lot of the same players,

982
00:45:55,520 --> 00:45:59,040
Speaker 1: so they have experience in that regard. They've also run

983
00:45:59,200 --> 00:46:01,960
Speaker 1: just really poor. They lost a prayer View in double overtime,

984
00:46:02,160 --> 00:46:05,000
Speaker 1: they lost a Southern and overtime. They lost to Alcorn

985
00:46:05,040 --> 00:46:07,719
Speaker 1: in overtime. They're right there, you know. They lost to

986
00:46:07,800 --> 00:46:10,640
Speaker 1: Jackson State by two, prayer View by force. They lost

987
00:46:10,680 --> 00:46:13,080
Speaker 1: a ton of close games. But they have a lot

988
00:46:13,120 --> 00:46:16,600
Speaker 1: of experience, and it's just take a shot in this

989
00:46:16,760 --> 00:46:19,880
Speaker 1: conference because anything can happen here. There's gonna be a

990
00:46:19,880 --> 00:46:21,960
Speaker 1: ton of free throws. The officials will have a big

991
00:46:22,000 --> 00:46:24,120
Speaker 1: say because of the way that these teams play. So

992
00:46:24,200 --> 00:46:27,160
Speaker 1: if you're looking for a fun shot, Texas Southern at

993
00:46:27,200 --> 00:46:31,640
Speaker 1: thirteen to one, it's a little crazy. Grambling a plus

994
00:46:31,640 --> 00:46:34,759
Speaker 1: one oh five is nuts. Let's see, Grambling will be

995
00:46:35,120 --> 00:46:37,399
Speaker 1: just it'll be like a ten what you're getting with Grammen,

996
00:46:37,440 --> 00:46:39,160
Speaker 1: It'll be like a ten point favor in the first round.

997
00:46:39,360 --> 00:46:42,800
Speaker 1: But Alcorn State they're gonna be like a two and

998
00:46:42,840 --> 00:46:46,480
Speaker 1: a half point favor over Texas Southern. That's my prediction.

999
00:46:46,520 --> 00:46:48,439
Speaker 1: I don't know if the line's not out to two

1000
00:46:48,400 --> 00:46:51,040
Speaker 1: to two and a half and Alcorn's plus four hundred,

1001
00:46:51,040 --> 00:46:54,640
Speaker 1: Texas southerns plus thirteen hundred, so I think it's Texas Southern's.

1002
00:46:54,719 --> 00:46:58,040
Speaker 3: Look there, I'm trying to figure out how I'm gonna

1003
00:46:58,040 --> 00:47:00,680
Speaker 3: play this because I really do like ambling, but I

1004
00:47:00,680 --> 00:47:04,040
Speaker 3: agree this number is crap. Like the fact that it's

1005
00:47:04,040 --> 00:47:06,920
Speaker 3: even money just doesn't make any sense. So there's got

1006
00:47:06,960 --> 00:47:09,040
Speaker 3: to be a different way to attack it. However, I

1007
00:47:09,080 --> 00:47:10,920
Speaker 3: think there's a lot of value in Jackson State. They

1008
00:47:10,920 --> 00:47:12,160
Speaker 3: do two things really well.

1009
00:47:12,200 --> 00:47:13,759
Speaker 6: But as a combo, do.

1010
00:47:13,680 --> 00:47:15,960
Speaker 3: They do this the best in the swack, which is

1011
00:47:16,160 --> 00:47:20,719
Speaker 3: get offensive, re turn teams over like that combination that's

1012
00:47:20,760 --> 00:47:25,160
Speaker 3: like eight or nine you know, plus extra opportunities Actually

1013
00:47:25,160 --> 00:47:27,200
Speaker 3: probably more than that, like twelve or thirteen per game.

1014
00:47:27,960 --> 00:47:29,080
Speaker 1: So I don't know.

1015
00:47:29,120 --> 00:47:30,800
Speaker 3: I just think that the fact that they're going to

1016
00:47:30,920 --> 00:47:34,839
Speaker 3: play in the second round means that pre tournament I'll

1017
00:47:34,880 --> 00:47:36,640
Speaker 3: take a you know, a shot in one unit on

1018
00:47:36,719 --> 00:47:39,160
Speaker 3: Jackson State, but I may as well just wait for

1019
00:47:39,239 --> 00:47:41,719
Speaker 3: Grambling because if they end up getting Alkorn, like how

1020
00:47:41,800 --> 00:47:43,520
Speaker 3: much of a favorite could they possibly be in the

1021
00:47:43,520 --> 00:47:46,359
Speaker 3: title game like five points or somebody? So even money

1022
00:47:46,440 --> 00:47:47,960
Speaker 3: right now, I just I'm gonna keep my money on

1023
00:47:47,960 --> 00:47:50,239
Speaker 3: the sideline. Although I do think they're gonna win it,

1024
00:47:50,280 --> 00:47:53,640
Speaker 3: I just I want to be prudence in how I'm

1025
00:47:53,719 --> 00:47:55,200
Speaker 3: you know, managing my money.

1026
00:47:55,520 --> 00:47:58,399
Speaker 1: I mean, yeah, it's the swack crazy shit happens. Don't

1027
00:47:58,440 --> 00:48:01,160
Speaker 1: take an even money favorite in this even THO they're

1028
00:48:01,200 --> 00:48:02,560
Speaker 1: playing to the Thune Cookman. The only team I would

1029
00:48:02,560 --> 00:48:05,680
Speaker 1: not take is Pethune Cookman. The Thune Cookman is legit

1030
00:48:05,800 --> 00:48:09,080
Speaker 1: a bottom ten ish team in the country. I don't

1031
00:48:09,080 --> 00:48:12,000
Speaker 1: know how they got in. As a reminder, before we

1032
00:48:12,040 --> 00:48:14,760
Speaker 1: go any further, college basketball season is in full swing,

1033
00:48:14,960 --> 00:48:17,600
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1038
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1044
00:48:52,080 --> 00:48:55,080
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1045
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1048
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1052
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00:49:23,560 --> 00:49:25,680
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1056
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1057
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1060
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1061
00:49:37,239 --> 00:49:40,120
Speaker 1: available in Nevada in New York. All right, while we're

1062
00:49:40,160 --> 00:49:42,879
Speaker 1: waiting for Colin, we'll do we have some reviews. We'll

1063
00:49:42,920 --> 00:49:45,760
Speaker 1: do giveaways later in the week. But I did want

1064
00:49:45,760 --> 00:49:48,920
Speaker 1: to choose a review that is going to share in

1065
00:49:48,960 --> 00:49:53,880
Speaker 1: our futures portfolio with us. Let's go with Britt not

1066
00:49:53,960 --> 00:49:56,560
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1067
00:49:56,560 --> 00:49:58,239
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1068
00:49:58,239 --> 00:50:00,480
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1069
00:50:00,520 --> 00:50:02,640
Speaker 1: dedication that we need to leave reviews. Came over to

1070
00:50:02,680 --> 00:50:05,480
Speaker 1: Apple Easy, Peasy, mantesy open. I'll get chosen as the

1071
00:50:05,480 --> 00:50:07,920
Speaker 1: best five star review. Someone new to sports betting just

1072
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Speaker 1: became Lego on Ohio. I've been looking for college basketball

1073
00:50:09,880 --> 00:50:11,840
Speaker 1: podcasts covering the games in a third of an interesting way. Honestly,

1074
00:50:11,840 --> 00:50:14,240
Speaker 1: you guys are one of my favorites. Thanks coving basketball

1075
00:50:14,280 --> 00:50:16,000
Speaker 1: the way you do. Definitely planning on listening to every show.

1076
00:50:16,040 --> 00:50:18,640
Speaker 1: Keep it the good work. You win for the dedication

1077
00:50:18,800 --> 00:50:21,520
Speaker 1: to getting out and finding a way to leave a

1078
00:50:21,520 --> 00:50:24,879
Speaker 1: five star review. So Britt, not from Pitt. You are

1079
00:50:24,920 --> 00:50:28,160
Speaker 1: in it with us for our future's portfolio. I have

1080
00:50:28,200 --> 00:50:31,680
Speaker 1: about five or six others that are we'll do for

1081
00:50:31,800 --> 00:50:36,640
Speaker 1: giveaways later in the week, so keep leaving them because

1082
00:50:36,640 --> 00:50:39,160
Speaker 1: we'll do more giveaways throughout March. Appreciate everyone who took

1083
00:50:39,200 --> 00:50:41,480
Speaker 1: the time to do that really helps us out. All

1084
00:50:41,600 --> 00:50:43,920
Speaker 1: right now joining us. As I mentioned earlier in the show,

1085
00:50:45,120 --> 00:50:47,480
Speaker 1: mister Colin Wilson, Wilson, what are you doing up?

1086
00:50:48,000 --> 00:50:51,400
Speaker 2: But truly wise man always has more questions than answers.

1087
00:50:51,640 --> 00:50:54,680
Speaker 1: Long time, no talk, brother, We're going to talk some

1088
00:50:54,880 --> 00:50:58,120
Speaker 1: sec I should have called this the Homer Podcast because

1089
00:50:58,160 --> 00:51:00,960
Speaker 1: I'm you know, Kentucky fannom in Kentuck Country. We had

1090
00:51:01,000 --> 00:51:03,840
Speaker 1: Bja talk about his Iowa guys, Mike talk about his

1091
00:51:03,920 --> 00:51:07,200
Speaker 1: Saint Josehawks. Now we're bringing in Colin to talk about

1092
00:51:07,600 --> 00:51:12,560
Speaker 1: his Arkansas Razorbacks. Colin, what's going on live from Vegas?

1093
00:51:12,840 --> 00:51:16,160
Speaker 2: I miss you, brother. I am putting out college football

1094
00:51:16,200 --> 00:51:18,640
Speaker 2: win totals. There is a shop out here that you

1095
00:51:18,640 --> 00:51:20,160
Speaker 2: and I are very familiar with that are putting out

1096
00:51:20,239 --> 00:51:23,799
Speaker 2: Heisman numbers. But we have college basketball to deal with,

1097
00:51:23,920 --> 00:51:27,319
Speaker 2: and I have a university I graduated from, and they

1098
00:51:27,440 --> 00:51:30,080
Speaker 2: just can't get it together. They can't finish games, they

1099
00:51:30,080 --> 00:51:32,719
Speaker 2: can't hit free throws. I think Anthony Black should be

1100
00:51:32,719 --> 00:51:34,560
Speaker 2: back on the point instead of Nick Smith. There's a

1101
00:51:34,560 --> 00:51:37,200
Speaker 2: lot going on with my team. I'm excited to talk

1102
00:51:37,200 --> 00:51:38,400
Speaker 2: about some SEC tournament.

1103
00:51:38,640 --> 00:51:42,200
Speaker 1: All right, Well, let's set the stage. So tournament will

1104
00:51:42,360 --> 00:51:46,320
Speaker 1: obviously take place in bridge Son Arena in Nashville, Tennessee.

1105
00:51:46,680 --> 00:51:50,560
Speaker 1: Starts on Wednesday, March eighth, first round matchups between South

1106
00:51:50,560 --> 00:51:54,319
Speaker 1: Carolina and Ole miss and Georgia LSU. Tournament will then

1107
00:51:54,680 --> 00:51:58,640
Speaker 1: go through Sunday, where the championship will be played on

1108
00:51:59,160 --> 00:52:03,080
Speaker 1: March twelve. Well, the favorite Alabama shop around here that

1109
00:52:03,080 --> 00:52:06,960
Speaker 1: they're plus one fifty Ish Tennessee three to one, Kentucky

1110
00:52:07,080 --> 00:52:09,000
Speaker 1: around five to one, Texas A and m around five

1111
00:52:09,040 --> 00:52:11,600
Speaker 1: to one. Alburn and Arkansas, who will play each other

1112
00:52:11,640 --> 00:52:15,440
Speaker 1: in the first round around twelve to one. But shop around,

1113
00:52:15,520 --> 00:52:18,839
Speaker 1: I saw at one shop Auburn twenty two to one,

1114
00:52:19,120 --> 00:52:22,160
Speaker 1: Arkansas ten to one. If you could find Alburn twenty

1115
00:52:22,200 --> 00:52:24,239
Speaker 1: two to one, I would take, and then you have

1116
00:52:24,320 --> 00:52:28,399
Speaker 1: Missouri twenty five to one. And actually I wouldn't take

1117
00:52:28,400 --> 00:52:30,240
Speaker 1: Auburn twenty two to one, but that is a pretty

1118
00:52:30,239 --> 00:52:33,000
Speaker 1: good price compared to the market. Missouri twenty five to one,

1119
00:52:33,040 --> 00:52:35,800
Speaker 1: Vandy forty to one, Big News there, no Liam Robbins,

1120
00:52:36,080 --> 00:52:39,200
Speaker 1: Mississippi State fifty to one, Florida one hundred to one.

1121
00:52:39,400 --> 00:52:42,719
Speaker 1: No Colin Castleton there. So I actually mentioned the top

1122
00:52:42,719 --> 00:52:44,799
Speaker 1: four seeds get a double buy into the quarters. That's

1123
00:52:44,840 --> 00:52:49,680
Speaker 1: Alabama and Missouri on the top end. No Ziegler for Tennessee. Also,

1124
00:52:49,760 --> 00:52:52,080
Speaker 1: it's a lot of injuries. Alabama got a really favorable

1125
00:52:52,160 --> 00:52:54,839
Speaker 1: draw on the top half, with Missouri as the other

1126
00:52:55,000 --> 00:52:58,000
Speaker 1: seed that got a double by then you have Tennessee injuries,

1127
00:52:58,000 --> 00:53:01,960
Speaker 1: Florida injuries, Mississippi State just camp score consistently. The bottom

1128
00:53:02,000 --> 00:53:04,560
Speaker 1: half is much more loaded. I think we can cross

1129
00:53:04,600 --> 00:53:06,880
Speaker 1: off you know, South carotin Ole, miss Georgia and LSU,

1130
00:53:07,000 --> 00:53:10,399
Speaker 1: but Texas, A and M. Like. So if you look

1131
00:53:10,400 --> 00:53:12,920
Speaker 1: at Auburn Arkansas and we're going to talk your hogs

1132
00:53:12,920 --> 00:53:15,239
Speaker 1: in a second, and if I map out like a

1133
00:53:16,160 --> 00:53:20,080
Speaker 1: money line rollover for Arkansas be about I think around

1134
00:53:20,080 --> 00:53:22,799
Speaker 1: fourteen fifteen to one. So if you have twelve to one,

1135
00:53:23,400 --> 00:53:25,040
Speaker 1: you know, then you might get an upset. Maybe Vandy.

1136
00:53:25,080 --> 00:53:28,000
Speaker 1: Vandy's giving Kentucky problems even without Robbins. But I don't

1137
00:53:28,040 --> 00:53:30,920
Speaker 1: mind taking Arkansas here. Maybe you could talk me out

1138
00:53:30,920 --> 00:53:32,879
Speaker 1: of it. But the one thing that I'm worried about

1139
00:53:32,920 --> 00:53:36,839
Speaker 1: for both Arkansas and Auburn is Albert does not match

1140
00:53:36,920 --> 00:53:39,040
Speaker 1: up well at Texas A and M. Because Auburn allows

1141
00:53:39,080 --> 00:53:41,440
Speaker 1: you to offense the rebound everything that Auburn will turn

1142
00:53:41,480 --> 00:53:43,479
Speaker 1: it over. Their guards are too radic away from home,

1143
00:53:43,760 --> 00:53:46,480
Speaker 1: so I don't trust them. And I think this is

1144
00:53:46,480 --> 00:53:48,880
Speaker 1: a really good spot, like Auburn is just celebrating a win.

1145
00:53:48,920 --> 00:53:52,759
Speaker 1: They basically clinster attorney spot Arkansas bad loss. I'm sure

1146
00:53:52,800 --> 00:53:54,480
Speaker 1: they'll come in here fired up. I think they're going

1147
00:53:54,560 --> 00:53:57,160
Speaker 1: to get Auburn in the first round. But Texas A

1148
00:53:57,239 --> 00:53:59,560
Speaker 1: and M the way that they play, you know, and

1149
00:53:59,640 --> 00:54:02,040
Speaker 1: Arkansas turn it over sometimes too much, and they make

1150
00:54:02,120 --> 00:54:05,200
Speaker 1: you shoot threes and Arkansas can't shoot. So the question is,

1151
00:54:05,760 --> 00:54:08,040
Speaker 1: and we've seen our Kentucky's very erratic. If Arkansas can

1152
00:54:08,080 --> 00:54:11,520
Speaker 1: buy text A and M, they could beat Kentucky. And

1153
00:54:11,680 --> 00:54:14,880
Speaker 1: Kentucky has injuries. We'll see each day each beat each

1154
00:54:14,920 --> 00:54:17,439
Speaker 1: other faoroughly on each other's home court. That's the game.

1155
00:54:17,640 --> 00:54:20,080
Speaker 1: So Arkansas, Texas A and M can I be am

1156
00:54:20,120 --> 00:54:22,080
Speaker 1: I buying loan on Arkansas? Or is the offense just

1157
00:54:22,080 --> 00:54:23,360
Speaker 1: two broken? So you thought I was going to come

1158
00:54:23,400 --> 00:54:25,400
Speaker 1: in and shit on Arkansas, but it might be the

1159
00:54:25,440 --> 00:54:27,880
Speaker 1: time to buy them. Colin, what are your overall thoughts

1160
00:54:27,880 --> 00:54:30,239
Speaker 1: and specifically, Well, we'll start on the top half, which

1161
00:54:30,280 --> 00:54:32,440
Speaker 1: is easy. It is just batter the to the final.

1162
00:54:32,760 --> 00:54:34,400
Speaker 2: Yeah, you know, what do you want? Do you want

1163
00:54:34,440 --> 00:54:34,920
Speaker 2: to do the top half?

1164
00:54:34,960 --> 00:54:37,080
Speaker 1: Bottom half? I mean, well let's start bottom halfs we

1165
00:54:37,080 --> 00:54:40,200
Speaker 1: went there, so alburn Arkansas? What do you see there?

1166
00:54:40,560 --> 00:54:40,640
Speaker 3: So?

1167
00:54:40,800 --> 00:54:42,880
Speaker 2: I mean Arkansas is My problem with Arkansas is that

1168
00:54:42,880 --> 00:54:44,359
Speaker 2: they're two hundred and eighty six and the free throw

1169
00:54:44,400 --> 00:54:46,799
Speaker 2: percentage and all they want to do. Al must wants

1170
00:54:46,840 --> 00:54:49,400
Speaker 2: to do is this model that he has is transfers,

1171
00:54:49,800 --> 00:54:52,480
Speaker 2: high recruits, attack the rim, attack the rim, attack the rim.

1172
00:54:52,520 --> 00:54:55,000
Speaker 2: I don't need three point shooters, and I don't think

1173
00:54:55,040 --> 00:54:57,799
Speaker 2: that that is a consistent formula to win every single

1174
00:54:57,920 --> 00:54:59,680
Speaker 2: I know, we've had two Elite eights, and everybody is

1175
00:55:00,160 --> 00:55:02,760
Speaker 2: drawn into the fact that we've gotten to two eights,

1176
00:55:02,920 --> 00:55:04,600
Speaker 2: but this is not the same team that we've had

1177
00:55:04,680 --> 00:55:07,640
Speaker 2: last year. Yes, is it more talented? Absolutely? Do we

1178
00:55:07,680 --> 00:55:10,520
Speaker 2: have three lottery picks? On this team. Yeah, but they're

1179
00:55:10,520 --> 00:55:13,200
Speaker 2: not working well together. Ever since Nick Smith came back

1180
00:55:13,200 --> 00:55:16,080
Speaker 2: from injury and started handling the ball. It took Anthony

1181
00:55:16,080 --> 00:55:17,880
Speaker 2: Black out of breaking the ball up the court and

1182
00:55:17,920 --> 00:55:20,080
Speaker 2: being at the top of the key, and it's been

1183
00:55:20,160 --> 00:55:23,919
Speaker 2: a completely different team. You got to think about the psychology.

1184
00:55:24,080 --> 00:55:27,040
Speaker 2: We're losing games. Must is saying, you know, I'm just

1185
00:55:27,080 --> 00:55:28,840
Speaker 2: trying to win a game. You know, We're trying to

1186
00:55:28,840 --> 00:55:30,719
Speaker 2: figure things out. And this team has been trying to

1187
00:55:30,719 --> 00:55:33,200
Speaker 2: figure out all season because of the Knicksmith injury, him

1188
00:55:33,280 --> 00:55:36,560
Speaker 2: coming back wanting to be a razorback. And you know,

1189
00:55:36,760 --> 00:55:39,080
Speaker 2: the whole thing is can we win the first game? Absolutely?

1190
00:55:39,120 --> 00:55:41,800
Speaker 2: Would we be fired up to play Kentucky again? Stuck?

1191
00:55:41,920 --> 00:55:44,040
Speaker 2: You know this? I mean the Mitchell Twins are throwing

1192
00:55:44,080 --> 00:55:47,719
Speaker 2: hands with Oscar Teshibwe can Arkansas win that game? Absolutely?

1193
00:55:47,760 --> 00:55:50,360
Speaker 2: They can win that game. But do they have the

1194
00:55:50,440 --> 00:55:53,759
Speaker 2: depth to make it all the way? The hardest question

1195
00:55:53,800 --> 00:55:56,360
Speaker 2: with Arkansas is do they have the talent? The answers yes,

1196
00:55:56,480 --> 00:55:58,960
Speaker 2: The question is when they're going to turn on We

1197
00:55:59,120 --> 00:56:02,160
Speaker 2: don't know win to buy? So I think a rolling

1198
00:56:02,239 --> 00:56:05,560
Speaker 2: parlay somehow hedging your bets, I think I guess Auburn

1199
00:56:05,560 --> 00:56:06,719
Speaker 2: absolutely first round.

1200
00:56:06,760 --> 00:56:07,239
Speaker 1: Give it to me.

1201
00:56:07,640 --> 00:56:09,520
Speaker 2: You know you're gonna give me Texas A and to them.

1202
00:56:09,880 --> 00:56:12,279
Speaker 2: I hate the fact there's a win at home, win

1203
00:56:12,320 --> 00:56:15,520
Speaker 2: at home Texas A and M. They have extreme defense,

1204
00:56:15,560 --> 00:56:18,080
Speaker 2: which locks Arkansas down. I think when they lost to

1205
00:56:18,120 --> 00:56:20,160
Speaker 2: them a couple of weeks ago on February fifteenth, I

1206
00:56:20,200 --> 00:56:23,440
Speaker 2: believe they were able to lock the perimeter down. I

1207
00:56:23,520 --> 00:56:26,440
Speaker 2: think the score is in the one fifteen's one twenties.

1208
00:56:27,480 --> 00:56:29,000
Speaker 2: That is really bad on what Arkansas wants to do

1209
00:56:29,080 --> 00:56:31,359
Speaker 2: is not what Musk wants to do. That's the hardest game.

1210
00:56:31,400 --> 00:56:34,600
Speaker 2: You get past that, you get a Kentucky team. Listen,

1211
00:56:34,760 --> 00:56:36,360
Speaker 2: artists will be fired up for that. Do they have

1212
00:56:36,400 --> 00:56:39,400
Speaker 2: the depth? I'm not really sure. Mitchell Twin's half to

1213
00:56:39,400 --> 00:56:44,000
Speaker 2: stay out of foul trouble. Devo Davis cannot be fouling

1214
00:56:44,040 --> 00:56:46,880
Speaker 2: out with eighteen minutes left in the game. You cannot

1215
00:56:47,000 --> 00:56:51,120
Speaker 2: be missing eighteen layups out of twenty, right, Stucky. We

1216
00:56:51,160 --> 00:56:54,440
Speaker 2: watched the Kentucky game the other day. Arkansas has value

1217
00:56:54,480 --> 00:56:57,520
Speaker 2: because they screwed themselves out of that game. That's why

1218
00:56:57,560 --> 00:56:59,520
Speaker 2: you're gonna get a better price here. I think you

1219
00:56:59,520 --> 00:57:01,600
Speaker 2: get a hedge out of it later on in the

1220
00:57:01,640 --> 00:57:04,160
Speaker 2: SEC tournament, but absolutely I think they're a first round win.

1221
00:57:04,600 --> 00:57:07,279
Speaker 1: Here's a crazy thought, why not? And I get he

1222
00:57:07,320 --> 00:57:10,120
Speaker 1: doesn't fit with what Musselman wants to do. But if

1223
00:57:10,160 --> 00:57:14,839
Speaker 1: you go back to a game earlier this season, oh

1224
00:57:14,840 --> 00:57:17,760
Speaker 1: great it was old Miss, but old Miss it was

1225
00:57:17,800 --> 00:57:20,640
Speaker 1: in the game. Was that old Miss? They put in

1226
00:57:21,280 --> 00:57:26,760
Speaker 1: Joseph Pinion the Arkansas He's I think he's from Arkansas

1227
00:57:27,160 --> 00:57:30,960
Speaker 1: and he's the old He played twenty two minutes, came

1228
00:57:30,960 --> 00:57:35,800
Speaker 1: in with a spark, hit three threes, and finished with

1229
00:57:35,840 --> 00:57:38,480
Speaker 1: thirteen points. I get he can't play defense, not going

1230
00:57:38,560 --> 00:57:40,960
Speaker 1: to cover anyone in the SEC, but bring him in

1231
00:57:41,000 --> 00:57:44,120
Speaker 1: for some minutes to stretch out the defense might be

1232
00:57:44,160 --> 00:57:46,920
Speaker 1: a sacrifice worth making their you know your defense suffers

1233
00:57:46,960 --> 00:57:50,040
Speaker 1: a little bit, come in, make some threes, Like why

1234
00:57:50,120 --> 00:57:51,640
Speaker 1: not give him a couple more minutes a game?

1235
00:57:52,000 --> 00:57:53,920
Speaker 2: Yeah, and you have to wonder if mus is going

1236
00:57:53,960 --> 00:57:56,560
Speaker 2: to change his strategy for this tournament. You know, and

1237
00:57:56,640 --> 00:57:59,280
Speaker 2: I know we keep on talking about Arkansas, but you

1238
00:57:59,360 --> 00:58:01,680
Speaker 2: need to realize is that there are we're going to

1239
00:58:01,720 --> 00:58:03,320
Speaker 2: talk about this. I know you're going to talk about

1240
00:58:03,320 --> 00:58:05,200
Speaker 2: this in March Madness. Arkansas is going to be eight,

1241
00:58:05,360 --> 00:58:07,600
Speaker 2: nine seed whatever, They're going to get matched up with

1242
00:58:07,640 --> 00:58:10,040
Speaker 2: a one seed and if that one seed or you

1243
00:58:10,040 --> 00:58:12,640
Speaker 2: know whatever cannot protect the rim, Arkansas is going to

1244
00:58:12,680 --> 00:58:15,720
Speaker 2: be your Everybody is going to pencil the Razorbacks into

1245
00:58:15,720 --> 00:58:18,160
Speaker 2: the Sweet sixteen based on history, the fact that they

1246
00:58:18,200 --> 00:58:21,280
Speaker 2: attack the rim, the fact that there's but does must

1247
00:58:21,400 --> 00:58:23,760
Speaker 2: change it up and say we want to shoot threes

1248
00:58:23,760 --> 00:58:27,040
Speaker 2: with opinion? Can Devo Davis stay out of technical foul

1249
00:58:27,080 --> 00:58:29,800
Speaker 2: trouble to help out with that three point? The problem

1250
00:58:29,920 --> 00:58:33,040
Speaker 2: that we have is that if we want to attack

1251
00:58:33,080 --> 00:58:36,680
Speaker 2: the rim, Alabama is second in the nation in protecting

1252
00:58:36,680 --> 00:58:39,680
Speaker 2: the rim per shot quality. That is a huge issue

1253
00:58:39,680 --> 00:58:42,160
Speaker 2: for Arkansas winning this tournament. So do I like the

1254
00:58:42,240 --> 00:58:44,800
Speaker 2: number with you? Of course I do. Can this team

1255
00:58:44,920 --> 00:58:47,280
Speaker 2: catch on fire at any moment? Yes they can? But

1256
00:58:47,880 --> 00:58:50,080
Speaker 2: can you beat an Alabama team that protects the rim

1257
00:58:50,120 --> 00:58:53,320
Speaker 2: at a top five rate? Can you get up after

1258
00:58:53,440 --> 00:58:54,240
Speaker 2: beating Kentucky?

1259
00:58:54,600 --> 00:58:54,760
Speaker 1: Right?

1260
00:58:54,840 --> 00:58:57,040
Speaker 2: So there's a lot of questions with Arkansas and you

1261
00:58:57,120 --> 00:58:58,640
Speaker 2: have to wonder at some point do they just show

1262
00:58:58,720 --> 00:59:03,200
Speaker 2: up at the tournament location, as you know, feeling like

1263
00:59:04,080 --> 00:59:06,040
Speaker 2: an eight seed, nine seed? We should have came into

1264
00:59:06,040 --> 00:59:08,440
Speaker 2: this as a two seed. Three seed. Are we pissed

1265
00:59:08,480 --> 00:59:10,480
Speaker 2: off in the tournament? I think that's where Arkansas is.

1266
00:59:10,480 --> 00:59:13,120
Speaker 2: So I agree the number is good for them on

1267
00:59:13,160 --> 00:59:15,280
Speaker 2: this side of the bracket, But can they make it

1268
00:59:15,320 --> 00:59:17,760
Speaker 2: all the way? It's gonna could be lightning in a bottle,

1269
00:59:17,800 --> 00:59:19,160
Speaker 2: you know. I mean, it's one of those things where

1270
00:59:19,160 --> 00:59:20,640
Speaker 2: they had knocked out here stuck. I'll take them in

1271
00:59:20,680 --> 00:59:23,200
Speaker 2: the tournament. They win this tournament here, I'll probably get

1272
00:59:23,280 --> 00:59:27,240
Speaker 2: them to knock out early in the Big Dance. So

1273
00:59:27,000 --> 00:59:28,400
Speaker 2: it's up with Arkansas.

1274
00:59:28,680 --> 00:59:31,920
Speaker 1: Yeah, that's my that's my would be my target, just

1275
00:59:31,960 --> 00:59:33,880
Speaker 1: for any feature. I mean, so the way that I'm

1276
00:59:33,920 --> 00:59:37,400
Speaker 1: looking at it, cross off Georgia, cross off LSU, crossoff Southcare,

1277
00:59:37,480 --> 00:59:39,280
Speaker 1: across off all miss Those teams are bad and they're

1278
00:59:39,280 --> 00:59:42,600
Speaker 1: not winning five games in five days. Then you go

1279
00:59:42,600 --> 00:59:45,240
Speaker 1: to the teams that start in the second round Florida, No, Castleton,

1280
00:59:45,400 --> 00:59:50,040
Speaker 1: They're done, Mississippi State. Missippi State can't score enough, you know,

1281
00:59:50,120 --> 00:59:52,720
Speaker 1: to beat to win four games in four days. I

1282
00:59:52,760 --> 00:59:56,760
Speaker 1: don't trust their offense. Tennessee. I also don't trust their offense,

1283
00:59:57,600 --> 00:59:59,240
Speaker 1: and they don't have Ziggler, which I think is a

1284
00:59:59,240 --> 01:00:03,080
Speaker 1: big loss. The initiator of their offense, so cross them off.

1285
01:00:03,120 --> 01:00:06,439
Speaker 1: Then you have Missouri and I don't trust them away

1286
01:00:06,480 --> 01:00:10,160
Speaker 1: from home. I don't trust their defense. So it looks

1287
01:00:10,200 --> 01:00:13,120
Speaker 1: like an easy path for Alabama. But then you also

1288
01:00:13,160 --> 01:00:17,160
Speaker 1: have all this stuff looming over their heads with the investigation,

1289
01:00:17,840 --> 01:00:20,040
Speaker 1: and they haven't been the same team since all that happened.

1290
01:00:20,080 --> 01:00:23,040
Speaker 1: It might just be a weird coincidence in timing, but

1291
01:00:23,640 --> 01:00:26,000
Speaker 1: they have not been the same team. I don't want

1292
01:00:26,040 --> 01:00:29,120
Speaker 1: anyone plus one fifty. I make them up when you

1293
01:00:29,160 --> 01:00:31,360
Speaker 1: consider the injuries. You know, if you go to some

1294
01:00:31,400 --> 01:00:33,439
Speaker 1: other sites, they're going to have Alabama at like thirty

1295
01:00:33,520 --> 01:00:36,640
Speaker 1: thirty three percent. But that's that's just based on the

1296
01:00:36,640 --> 01:00:38,960
Speaker 1: season long efficiency numbers. I mean Florida is much worse now.

1297
01:00:39,000 --> 01:00:42,200
Speaker 1: Tennessee's worst because of injuries. So I think I have

1298
01:00:42,200 --> 01:00:43,480
Speaker 1: albam around like forty percent.

1299
01:00:44,000 --> 01:00:45,680
Speaker 2: Let me jump in here. I mean, do not bet

1300
01:00:45,720 --> 01:00:49,320
Speaker 2: on Tennessee and do not bet on Florida to win

1301
01:00:49,360 --> 01:00:51,880
Speaker 2: this tournament because of depth issues, because of losing your

1302
01:00:51,880 --> 01:00:54,320
Speaker 2: best player. And then you know, at this top half

1303
01:00:54,320 --> 01:00:57,160
Speaker 2: of the bracket, no one's really pulled away. If you

1304
01:00:57,200 --> 01:00:59,440
Speaker 2: look at the last thirty days from the Bayesian Change

1305
01:00:59,480 --> 01:01:02,600
Speaker 2: like you're off some defensive change. Nobody's really had a

1306
01:01:02,600 --> 01:01:04,840
Speaker 2: pull away. And you say to yourself, well, Colin, I've

1307
01:01:04,880 --> 01:01:07,440
Speaker 2: seen you put Missouri in the app like over and

1308
01:01:07,480 --> 01:01:09,720
Speaker 2: over and over, but it's been a live play and

1309
01:01:09,720 --> 01:01:11,600
Speaker 2: you have to look at them. The last few games

1310
01:01:11,920 --> 01:01:15,520
Speaker 2: at Georgia, lsu Ole, miss These are teams that they

1311
01:01:15,520 --> 01:01:17,080
Speaker 2: were down by ten and the.

1312
01:01:17,040 --> 01:01:18,800
Speaker 1: Thing that they could have lost to Like, yeah, they're

1313
01:01:18,880 --> 01:01:19,480
Speaker 1: very streaky.

1314
01:01:19,920 --> 01:01:23,200
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm betting kill shots because they have ten oh runs.

1315
01:01:23,240 --> 01:01:26,160
Speaker 2: But they have TENO runs against really bad teams. And

1316
01:01:26,320 --> 01:01:28,640
Speaker 2: if you know, if they get a big deficit against

1317
01:01:28,640 --> 01:01:31,280
Speaker 2: say Alabama, if it down by ten, they're not coming

1318
01:01:31,320 --> 01:01:34,480
Speaker 2: back from that. So I fully expect and Missouri is

1319
01:01:34,480 --> 01:01:36,920
Speaker 2: the only team that I would be attracted to in

1320
01:01:36,920 --> 01:01:39,080
Speaker 2: this side of the bracket. So I think that you

1321
01:01:39,200 --> 01:01:41,480
Speaker 2: have to advance Alabama all the way out of the top.

1322
01:01:41,960 --> 01:01:44,600
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean Missouri. It's crazy. Missouri is like twenty

1323
01:01:44,640 --> 01:01:47,120
Speaker 1: three to one. Here's one book, they're twenty three to one,

1324
01:01:47,320 --> 01:01:49,720
Speaker 1: the same price as Florida. I mean, this is crazy,

1325
01:01:49,720 --> 01:01:51,520
Speaker 1: the same price as Florida. Who'd have to play Missippi

1326
01:01:51,520 --> 01:01:53,920
Speaker 1: State and Alabama. Missouri is a buy to the quarters,

1327
01:01:54,920 --> 01:01:56,360
Speaker 1: like and they're twenty three to one, and they would

1328
01:01:56,360 --> 01:01:58,640
Speaker 1: play tennis presumably tennis SEF and Tennessee's plays winner South

1329
01:01:58,640 --> 01:02:03,920
Speaker 1: candall miss Missouri one Tennessee and Tennessee doesn't have Ziggler anymore.

1330
01:02:03,960 --> 01:02:06,200
Speaker 1: I mean, that's a crazy price for Missouri. But it's

1331
01:02:06,200 --> 01:02:07,920
Speaker 1: hard for me to see them beating Alabama. Do you

1332
01:02:07,960 --> 01:02:12,560
Speaker 1: have that all right? What's looming over Bama's head? So yeah,

1333
01:02:12,600 --> 01:02:15,960
Speaker 1: I would agree. If you're gonna look anywhere in the

1334
01:02:15,960 --> 01:02:20,720
Speaker 1: top half, I think it is Missouri. But I'm passing

1335
01:02:21,120 --> 01:02:23,960
Speaker 1: and then looking in the bottom half, you know, Georgia

1336
01:02:23,960 --> 01:02:28,560
Speaker 1: and LSU. I'm crossing off Vanderbilt just without Liam Robbins,

1337
01:02:28,600 --> 01:02:32,120
Speaker 1: their ceiling is so much lower. They could still give

1338
01:02:32,200 --> 01:02:34,919
Speaker 1: Kentucky problems. They run really good offense. You saw them,

1339
01:02:35,360 --> 01:02:40,360
Speaker 1: you know, win after Robbins went down at Kentucky. Recently,

1340
01:02:41,480 --> 01:02:44,280
Speaker 1: Kentucky's dealing with some injuries and they're just very hit

1341
01:02:44,360 --> 01:02:46,560
Speaker 1: or missed. When Kentucky's good, they look really good. When

1342
01:02:46,560 --> 01:02:48,840
Speaker 1: they're bad, they look really bad. They kind of play

1343
01:02:48,880 --> 01:02:49,640
Speaker 1: up and play down.

1344
01:02:49,920 --> 01:02:52,160
Speaker 2: Kill mall, brother, I love you. It's the SEC Tournament.

1345
01:02:52,160 --> 01:02:54,640
Speaker 2: You know what's gonna happen here.

1346
01:02:54,800 --> 01:02:56,360
Speaker 1: They're gonna get to the semis. But I mean it

1347
01:02:56,400 --> 01:02:58,560
Speaker 1: is in Nashville, and they're gonna have more fans there

1348
01:02:58,640 --> 01:03:02,160
Speaker 1: than Baddie, which is funny. So then they're gonna they're

1349
01:03:02,160 --> 01:03:04,200
Speaker 1: gonna go in the semi finals. They're going to play

1350
01:03:04,840 --> 01:03:07,440
Speaker 1: you know, Kentucky is plus four fifty. I don't see

1351
01:03:08,760 --> 01:03:10,720
Speaker 1: much value there either. I don't see anything value at

1352
01:03:10,720 --> 01:03:13,720
Speaker 1: the top of the conference. And so now that brings

1353
01:03:13,760 --> 01:03:16,520
Speaker 1: me to that. And then text A and M is

1354
01:03:16,520 --> 01:03:19,520
Speaker 1: like five to one, that's probably that's I don't see

1355
01:03:19,520 --> 01:03:22,440
Speaker 1: any value there that number either. You'd get better on

1356
01:03:22,480 --> 01:03:25,040
Speaker 1: a money line rollover. So that brings me to that

1357
01:03:25,160 --> 01:03:27,760
Speaker 1: seven to ten matchup, and I have a strong opinion

1358
01:03:27,800 --> 01:03:30,440
Speaker 1: that Arkansas is going to win that game. And with

1359
01:03:30,520 --> 01:03:36,040
Speaker 1: the talent that they have, that's probably. It's a tough tournament.

1360
01:03:36,080 --> 01:03:38,040
Speaker 1: The crack there's not I think, I don't think an

1361
01:03:38,040 --> 01:03:40,360
Speaker 1: obvious play, but I think it's Arkansas or nothing. From

1362
01:03:40,360 --> 01:03:42,000
Speaker 1: a pre tournament futures perspective, But.

1363
01:03:42,320 --> 01:03:44,280
Speaker 2: Do you take a Texas A and M in Arkansas

1364
01:03:44,320 --> 01:03:46,320
Speaker 2: and then just let it ride through Kentucky? I mean,

1365
01:03:46,400 --> 01:03:47,919
Speaker 2: is that what you do? And then hold on because

1366
01:03:47,920 --> 01:03:50,040
Speaker 2: you think that they can beat Alabama like Arkansas could

1367
01:03:50,080 --> 01:03:53,400
Speaker 2: have beat Alabama. Arkansas traded wins with Texas A and

1368
01:03:53,560 --> 01:03:56,280
Speaker 2: m Arkansas traded wins with Kentucky on the home floor,

1369
01:03:56,320 --> 01:03:58,240
Speaker 2: then lost on their home floor with one of the

1370
01:03:58,280 --> 01:04:02,080
Speaker 2: most ridiculous shock quality box course I've ever seen in

1371
01:04:02,080 --> 01:04:06,440
Speaker 2: my entire life. I am you know, I am warm

1372
01:04:06,560 --> 01:04:08,120
Speaker 2: to the fact that you want to come out of

1373
01:04:08,120 --> 01:04:10,360
Speaker 2: the bottom half of the bracket. But the problem is

1374
01:04:10,400 --> 01:04:12,880
Speaker 2: the history of Kentucky. The fans are. It's not going

1375
01:04:12,960 --> 01:04:16,040
Speaker 2: to be fifty to fifty. This is not a neutral site. Stop.

1376
01:04:16,400 --> 01:04:18,560
Speaker 2: Kentucky is always going to have the fan base when

1377
01:04:18,560 --> 01:04:21,360
Speaker 2: it comes to the SEC Tournament. I mean, I completely,

1378
01:04:21,480 --> 01:04:22,160
Speaker 2: I mean Arkansas.

1379
01:04:22,600 --> 01:04:27,880
Speaker 1: This is this Arkansas team. They won in Lexington, yeah yeah, yeah, convincingly,

1380
01:04:28,440 --> 01:04:30,760
Speaker 1: and you know, per shot quality, they should have won

1381
01:04:30,920 --> 01:04:31,640
Speaker 1: easily at home.

1382
01:04:31,640 --> 01:04:34,480
Speaker 2: But when you miss eighteen to twenty layups, this is

1383
01:04:34,520 --> 01:04:37,120
Speaker 2: what this Arkansas team is. When you put your money down, guy,

1384
01:04:37,200 --> 01:04:39,000
Speaker 2: I mean for anybody listening to me, and it is

1385
01:04:39,040 --> 01:04:41,040
Speaker 2: following me in the app and stuck, I've seen you

1386
01:04:41,040 --> 01:04:45,080
Speaker 2: put in bets on Kentucky in Arkansas. Arkansas is a

1387
01:04:45,080 --> 01:04:47,000
Speaker 2: powder keg and I don't know when it's going to

1388
01:04:47,080 --> 01:04:49,440
Speaker 2: go off, and maybe it just whittles and dies and

1389
01:04:49,480 --> 01:04:52,480
Speaker 2: maybe the fuse never gets lit. But they want.

1390
01:04:54,040 --> 01:04:55,920
Speaker 1: That's why they're a good team, especially since I like

1391
01:04:55,920 --> 01:04:57,280
Speaker 1: them the first one. That's why they're a good team

1392
01:04:57,280 --> 01:05:00,440
Speaker 1: to take longer odds in a setting where you're just winning,

1393
01:05:00,720 --> 01:05:02,880
Speaker 1: you know, four games, and if you get to the

1394
01:05:02,920 --> 01:05:05,280
Speaker 1: championship and it is Bama, you know you could always

1395
01:05:05,320 --> 01:05:07,600
Speaker 1: head You're gonna be able to profit there. But that's

1396
01:05:07,640 --> 01:05:09,560
Speaker 1: that's this might be this is a good time to

1397
01:05:09,560 --> 01:05:11,800
Speaker 1: take a shot you're not. And I do like them

1398
01:05:11,800 --> 01:05:14,800
Speaker 1: in that first round matchup, So yeah, I agree, it's hot.

1399
01:05:14,840 --> 01:05:19,160
Speaker 1: It talks, talks is the is the decision Woo pick Sully?

1400
01:05:19,600 --> 01:05:21,560
Speaker 2: Is that Kentucky an artsall game not gonna be hot.

1401
01:05:21,600 --> 01:05:24,720
Speaker 2: There's gonna be hand the Mitchell Twins, Oscar Dshibwe, there's

1402
01:05:24,760 --> 01:05:27,200
Speaker 2: gonna be hands thrown. Can Devo keep up cool and

1403
01:05:27,240 --> 01:05:30,200
Speaker 2: not get technical fouls? That is going to be a

1404
01:05:30,240 --> 01:05:32,280
Speaker 2: hot game. But if you can take what is it

1405
01:05:32,320 --> 01:05:33,880
Speaker 2: you're seeing ten to one out there, twelve to one

1406
01:05:33,880 --> 01:05:35,520
Speaker 2: out there, If you can take that number into that game,

1407
01:05:35,520 --> 01:05:36,520
Speaker 2: that is huge value.

1408
01:05:36,720 --> 01:05:38,840
Speaker 1: A fifteen to one is one hundred percent of buy

1409
01:05:38,920 --> 01:05:41,160
Speaker 1: I've seen some ten to one in arcas twelve to one.

1410
01:05:41,280 --> 01:05:44,320
Speaker 1: I still I still like that would be my pick

1411
01:05:45,000 --> 01:05:47,600
Speaker 1: in this bracket. You probably will get more on a

1412
01:05:47,640 --> 01:05:52,400
Speaker 1: money line rollover, assuming Bama in Kentucky do advance, but

1413
01:05:52,800 --> 01:05:55,640
Speaker 1: you know, maybe there are some upsets, but I think

1414
01:05:55,680 --> 01:05:58,120
Speaker 1: that's the way to go here, Kylein. It was nice

1415
01:05:58,200 --> 01:06:01,240
Speaker 1: catching up with you. You get back to Vegas and

1416
01:06:01,640 --> 01:06:05,200
Speaker 1: finding some Heisman winners in college football win totals. I'll

1417
01:06:05,200 --> 01:06:10,400
Speaker 1: be joining you for college football and getting into the

1418
01:06:10,440 --> 01:06:15,360
Speaker 1: grind starting in April, so I'm glad you got a

1419
01:06:15,400 --> 01:06:19,320
Speaker 1: head start to carry the podcast in its off season.

1420
01:06:19,560 --> 01:06:23,360
Speaker 1: By the way, we'll have some episodes with you me

1421
01:06:23,560 --> 01:06:25,520
Speaker 1: Brett in the off season, just kind of shooting the

1422
01:06:25,560 --> 01:06:27,800
Speaker 1: shit coming up here after March Madness, so stay tuned

1423
01:06:27,840 --> 01:06:30,440
Speaker 1: for that. But thanks for joining me. Thanks to all

1424
01:06:30,480 --> 01:06:32,720
Speaker 1: of you for listening. Thanks of course to Mike and

1425
01:06:32,800 --> 01:06:35,680
Speaker 1: BJ and to our audio video teams in the back end.

1426
01:06:35,760 --> 01:06:38,080
Speaker 1: Make sure you subscribe on Scrap Scrabtail friend one of

1427
01:06:38,160 --> 01:06:40,000
Speaker 1: me better do it for us. Make sure you check

1428
01:06:40,040 --> 01:06:41,840
Speaker 1: out all the rest of the conference tourna with betting

1429
01:06:41,880 --> 01:06:44,360
Speaker 1: previews much more later in the week. Big Bets on

1430
01:06:44,360 --> 01:06:46,560
Speaker 1: Campus Live tomorrow morning with myself and the guys from

1431
01:06:46,600 --> 01:06:49,240
Speaker 1: three Man Leave. Enjoy the madness, good luck on all

1432
01:06:49,280 --> 01:07:03,680
Speaker 1: of your wagers. We'll catch you all later. Cheers. Action

1433
01:07:03,840 --> 01:07:06,880
Speaker 1: Network reminds you please gamble responsibly.

1434
01:07:07,280 --> 01:07:10,120
Speaker 6: If you or someone you care about has a gambling problem,

1435
01:07:10,400 --> 01:07:13,400
Speaker 6: help is available twenty four seven at one eight hundred

1436
01:07:13,440 --> 01:07:13,880
Speaker 6: Gambler