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Speaker 1: Good luck with the most beautiful game? Do us proud

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Speaker 1: read enough?

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Speaker 2: No running a game so smoothe so sweet.

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Speaker 1: Slid sixteen just glorious execution.

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Speaker 3: Guys, all I'm looking for is sixty percent effort four

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Speaker 3: thousand percent of the time.

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Speaker 1: How shot with that? Shop with mind bog buddy, And

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Speaker 1: that's why you see your beautiful tiers. Look at his movements,

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Speaker 1: the most dangerous amount of the planet.

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Speaker 2: Nobody picks them.

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Speaker 3: Shut up, I'm trying.

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Speaker 1: The woe. It's left too the wide eyed, drilled bibus

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Speaker 1: how old Earth pick that happened?

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Speaker 3: Hello everybody, and welcome to Wondergall, the soccer betting podcast

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Speaker 3: from the Action Network. I'm your host today BJ Cunningham

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Speaker 3: alongside Anthony Due as we take you through match day

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Speaker 3: three in the Champions League. But first wonder Goal is

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Speaker 3: proudly presented by Bet three sixty five and Bet three

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Speaker 3: sixty five doesn't do ordinary. It believes that every sport

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Speaker 3: should be epic. Every tournament, every game, every point, every play,

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Speaker 3: from the moments that are a legendary to the ones

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Speaker 3: that fly under the radar. See for yourself. When you

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Speaker 3: sign up with Code Action, you'll get three hundred and

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Speaker 3: sixty five dollars in bonus bets when you bet just

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Speaker 3: one dollar. Whatever the sport, whatever the moment, it's never ordinary.

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Speaker 3: At bet three sixty five, you must be twenty one

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Speaker 3: years or older to play. Must be present in Colorado, Iowa, Kentucky,

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Speaker 3: New Jersey, Ohio, or Virginia. If you know somebody who

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Speaker 3: has a gambling problem and wants help, call one eight

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Speaker 3: hundred gambler in Colorado, Kentucky, New Jersey, Ohio, and Virginia,

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Speaker 3: or one eight hundred bets off in Iowa. Terms and

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Speaker 3: conditions apply.

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Speaker 2: All right, it is just the two of us.

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Speaker 3: Michael will be back in the host chair for our

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Speaker 3: usual Thursday episode. As we look at our weekend preview,

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Speaker 3: but this is match week three in the Champions League,

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Speaker 3: and quite honestly, Anthony, obviously, outside of the Group of Death,

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Speaker 3: which will always have some type of high profile encounter,

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Speaker 3: there aren't really that many big matches quite frankly, in

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Speaker 3: the Champions League this round of matches. So we are

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Speaker 3: going to go in chronological orders start here on Tuesday,

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Speaker 3: and we will start with Galatasarai hosting Bayern Munich at

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Speaker 3: twelve forty five pm Eastern time, galatas riis a six

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Speaker 3: to one underdog on the money line, Byron sitting at

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Speaker 3: minus to twenty five with the draw at plus four hundred.

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Speaker 3: A very interesting encounter here given that Manchester United has

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Speaker 3: gotten zero points from their first two Champions League matches,

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Speaker 3: while Bayern Munich is doing what they usually do and

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Speaker 3: just never losing ever in the Champions League group stage.

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Speaker 3: But honestly, a really really big opportunity here from galatas Rai,

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Speaker 3: who can main that lead for second place and get

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Speaker 3: us that to advanced ticket. What are you see in

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Speaker 3: here in this very intriguing matchup.

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Speaker 1: Bayern Munich is not playing to the level that I

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Speaker 1: thought they'd be at the beginning of the season, to

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Speaker 1: the level that you thought they might be because they

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Speaker 1: added Harry Kane. They have not played at that level

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Speaker 1: and really even close to it. They've had their fair

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Speaker 1: share of like big blowout victories that have kind of

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Speaker 1: inflated their numbers in the Bundesliga. But the week to

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Speaker 1: week stuff from Byron is just not that impressive to

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Speaker 1: me right now. Like they had a solid away win

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Speaker 1: against Minds where you know, the total shot number was

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Speaker 1: about even in the match they conceded seven shots in

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Speaker 1: the first half to minds a team that has been

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Speaker 1: the worst attack in the Bundesliga by XG this season.

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Speaker 1: Prior to that, you know, they play Copenhagen and what

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Speaker 1: I thought was a really poor match from them on

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Speaker 1: the road in the Champions League where they had less

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Speaker 1: than one expected goal. They end up stealing it late

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Speaker 1: because Musiala you know, has like a moment of magic

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Speaker 1: and shows his quality, but they couldn't do anything in

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Speaker 1: the first half of the match especially, And then you know,

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Speaker 1: you can even go back to their moon against United,

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Speaker 1: which I thought for large stretches of that match, United

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Speaker 1: played really well. And given what we continue to see

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Speaker 1: from United, you know last weekend in the Champions League

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Speaker 1: against Galatasaraye, for example, the United still is not put

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Speaker 1: together like a truly great ninety minutes. So I think,

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Speaker 1: you know, are we really way too high on Byron.

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Speaker 1: I think that's a very real possibility. Like right now,

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Speaker 1: I still have them as the second best team in Europe,

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Speaker 1: I'm not so confident in that anymore. Like I think

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Speaker 1: that there's a very real chance that they're worse. And

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Speaker 1: if you go just go back to like last season,

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Speaker 1: when we had this conversation and they started to slow

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Speaker 1: down in the second half and then they got really

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Speaker 1: well handled by City and those two Champions League matches,

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Speaker 1: I think that there's real cause for concern. So I think,

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Speaker 1: you know, this has been the same Byron Corps forever,

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Speaker 1: pretty much the same players you know. Now they had

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Speaker 1: Harry Kane and the numbers you know, are not all

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Speaker 1: that great. They're struggling in transition defense as always with

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Speaker 1: the Chemic Gretska midfield, and that's where Galataster I think

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Speaker 1: can find success here. So I like Galataster at home.

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Speaker 1: I think they're live here. You know, they've been undervalued

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Speaker 1: in my mind all of the matches. They had a

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Speaker 1: little bit of a sloppy showing against Copenhagen, but looked

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Speaker 1: really good against United I thought played very well, and

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Speaker 1: at home catching a goal and a half minus one

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Speaker 1: thirty five like that is way too high on Byron

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Speaker 1: for me. This is a team that just like two

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Speaker 1: to Copenhagen and came nowhere close to covering it. So

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Speaker 1: I think there's real holes with Byron. I think this

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Speaker 1: is a good look for them to be competitive here. Byron,

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Speaker 1: you know, is in cruise control, and look, that's never

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Speaker 1: stopped them from before from running up big scores. But again,

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Speaker 1: I just have my doubts about this Byron team as

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Speaker 1: a as a unit who looks just a little bit

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Speaker 1: shaky to me right now. So you know, even you know,

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Speaker 1: the probably the most impressive win they've had in the

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Speaker 1: last month was the Freiburg game, but again, Freiberg was

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Speaker 1: dealing with a ton of injuries that day. They were

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Speaker 1: really shorthanded in their in their front line, and and

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Speaker 1: so you know, they dominated them, but it was not,

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Speaker 1: you know, the best version of Friburg. So I think

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Speaker 1: that there's some real questions about Byron that need to

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Speaker 1: be answered. And then as a result, I'm taking galataester

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Speaker 1: ride at home here.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I don't hate a play on that either.

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Speaker 3: I mean, I have Byron and minus one eighty eight,

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Speaker 3: so you can make a case obviously for galatastright plus

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Speaker 3: one and a half. Instead I'm going to go over

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Speaker 3: three and a half at plus one ten, I think

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Speaker 3: you hit the nail on the head that Byron. Listen,

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Speaker 3: if you go look at all their metrics, they're just

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Speaker 3: number one and everything in the Bundesliga right now. So

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Speaker 3: like from an underlying perspective when they're averaging you know,

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Speaker 3: two point seven next g p ninety. Now you know

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Speaker 3: five of that came against Bochum, so numbers tend to

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Speaker 3: get a little inflated. But yeah, that match against Copenhanga

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Speaker 3: wasn't that great. They were very sloppy. Copenhanga was good

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Speaker 3: structurally in the middle of the pitch, but that's not

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Speaker 3: something a Galatasterie really is. Galataster wants to play open matches.

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Speaker 3: They want to play transitional vertical football and you saw

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Speaker 3: that against Manchester United where they were completing a ton

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Speaker 3: of long balls into wide areas. Just something I think

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Speaker 3: they can really do well here against Byron because what

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Speaker 3: tucl has done is he's transitioned Byron into a box

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Speaker 3: midfield and it's you know, obviously caused them to play

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Speaker 3: through the middle of the pitch a lot easier. Harry

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Speaker 3: Kane's obviously an incredible forward at dropping back or receiving the ball,

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Speaker 3: holding up the ball, which has allowed the attackers to

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Speaker 3: invade the box and really made Byron good at creating

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Speaker 3: a boatload of chances. But when you play a box midfield,

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Speaker 3: you're also very very compact, So when you lose the ball,

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Speaker 3: where is the open space. It's in the wide areas,

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Speaker 3: which is something Galatas right can really take control of.

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Speaker 3: Byron's allowing a fifty percent pass completion rate on long balls.

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Speaker 3: It's kind of middle of the pack in the Bundesliga.

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Speaker 3: And given the opponents that they've played so far this season,

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Speaker 3: you know, I don't think they've really played an opponent

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Speaker 3: like that is very unique, like the way Galataster ray

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Speaker 3: As or at least plays to the level that they do,

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Speaker 3: and with the high line that they're going to play.

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Speaker 3: I mean, Galatasar what do they love to do? They

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Speaker 3: just love to make runs off the bat of the

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Speaker 3: opponent's back line and Cardi did that time and time

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Speaker 3: again against Manchester United. So a good tacticle match up

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Speaker 3: here for Galatasar. I really worry about them defensively though.

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Speaker 3: I mean they were very open against United, not good

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Speaker 3: in the center of the pitch, so Byron could play

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Speaker 3: right through them time and time again. And quite honestly,

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Speaker 3: this has the makings of a four to three thriller,

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Speaker 3: similar to what United again Bayern Munich played. So I

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Speaker 3: projected three point eight goals for this match, so over

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Speaker 3: three and a half at plus one ten I think

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Speaker 3: as a decent amount of value. But yes, the value

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Speaker 3: is also if you want to play a side is

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Speaker 3: definitely on galatass rye.

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Speaker 2: All right, let's move on to the other.

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Speaker 3: We're gonna pass on the other twelve forty five match

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Speaker 3: between Inter and Salzburg and none of us have anything there.

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Speaker 2: Let's move on to.

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Speaker 1: Well, I'll just make sure the comment like, the market

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Speaker 1: is really in love with this Center team right now,

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Speaker 1: and it's moved toward them a bunch in the last

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Speaker 1: few weeks. That was especially true in the match against Benfica.

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Speaker 1: You know, we talked about them on this pod. We

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Speaker 1: did a Sunday night pod. It was minus one twenty

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Speaker 1: and we were all like, that's a little short, starting

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Speaker 1: to get a little expensive one thirty. I woke up

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Speaker 1: the morning after when the pod had been released. You know,

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Speaker 1: limits go up and the market starts to move more

185
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Speaker 1: like Monday in Junes day head of the Champions League,

186
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Speaker 1: and they would have to like minus one sixty ended

187
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Speaker 1: up closing minus one eighty in that game. So I

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Speaker 1: think there's real love for this Inter team. And look,

189
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Speaker 1: I agree with it. Entirely. I think this Salsburg team

190
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Speaker 1: is not a great matchup going to enter because they

191
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Speaker 1: want to press, and ENT's best skill is ability to

192
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Speaker 1: play through pressure on the ball, like it's what they're

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Speaker 1: very good at when they want to be. And I

194
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Speaker 1: think that the Salsburg team runs into a potential issue

195
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Speaker 1: there trying to press them. So I think it's not

196
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Speaker 1: a great stylistic matchup. But again, like, am I gonna

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Speaker 1: go lay the big goal here going half? No, I'm not,

198
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Speaker 1: so I'm passing.

199
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Speaker 3: Yes, I am passing as well. And let's move on

200
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Speaker 3: to a game where let's just say we're gonna be

201
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Speaker 3: on opposite sides here, Sevilla hosting Arsenal. Savia's plus three twenty,

202
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Speaker 3: Arsenal's minus one twenty, and the draw is at plus

203
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Speaker 3: two eighty. I'll let you do your little song and dance.

204
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Speaker 3: You can tell everybody why Arsenal is gonna get relegated

205
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Speaker 3: because their offense is so bad. How Sevia suddenly is

206
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Speaker 3: going to make all these wonderful defensive adjustments and totally

207
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Speaker 3: turn into some type of juggernaut. I'll be on Arsenal,

208
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Speaker 3: but you won't.

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Speaker 2: Yeah.

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Speaker 1: Look, it's really interesting because we kind of just had

211
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Speaker 1: a really fun doubleheader because Real Madrid just went to

212
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Speaker 1: Seville in the league, and look, BJ hates Sevia and

213
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Speaker 1: loves him some. Arsenal and bet Real Madrid this weekend

214
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Speaker 1: as well, and I couldn't quite get there. I thought

215
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Speaker 1: about it myself, but h they fire him and Dillibo

216
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Speaker 1: and they bring in Alonso, and so you know how

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Speaker 1: many times can Sevia run back the old trick where

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Speaker 1: it's just like, let's fire the manager, bring somebody new in,

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Speaker 1: bring some new ideas in and see if it works.

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Speaker 1: I don't know. I think it's a really interesting, you

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Speaker 1: know situation, the whole the old new manager bounced thing,

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Speaker 1: and like you know, we we've talked about this on

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Speaker 1: the show that like more often than not, it is

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Speaker 1: just a matter of like team runs cold, fire manager, prematurely,

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Speaker 1: brings in new manager. Not much actually changes, but they

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Speaker 1: just run better and thus it gives the illusion of

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Speaker 1: better results. But this severe team, like what they're able

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Speaker 1: to do defending without the ball I think is effective.

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Speaker 1: They're they're they're crossing numbers like Arsenal's. The thing that

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Speaker 1: bothers me with Arsenal is that Arteta has now become

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Speaker 1: overly obsessed with the control. And it's very evident if

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Speaker 1: you watch Saturday against Chelsea, if you watched you know,

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Speaker 1: other matches they've played this season, they have sacrificed an

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Speaker 1: attack and become a very boring watch. They're not an

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Speaker 1: exciting team. And I don't think Socca is fully fit.

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Speaker 1: That's one of the biggest things here. If you watched

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Speaker 1: on Saturday, Like the biggest takeaway was mark kukarea completely

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Speaker 1: shut down. But kay Osaka and look, I I love Socca.

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Speaker 1: I'm not the biggest Cookorea guy. That was kind of

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Speaker 1: shocking the fact that Soccer couldn't get by him repeatedly

241
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Speaker 1: in one on one situations, and how quickly the Arsenal

242
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Speaker 1: attack just kind of falls apart once. They don't have

243
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Speaker 1: the the dynamic wing play, Like the stuff through the

244
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Speaker 1: middle with Rice and Odagard has not been clicking. They

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Speaker 1: have not gotten enough box entries from the middle. Oda

246
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Speaker 1: Guard's numbers have fallen off a little bit this year,

247
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Speaker 1: and so all of this, you know, slow possession and

248
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Speaker 1: let's grind this game down. That's what Seville is good at.

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Speaker 1: That's like the only thing they're good at. And so

250
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Speaker 1: I think this plays well into their matchup here. You know,

251
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Speaker 1: I am I excited to bet Sevie here, No, but

252
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Speaker 1: I will do it because catching a half a go

253
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Speaker 1: at home against what I think is still an overvalued

254
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Speaker 1: Arsenal side is enough for me to bets.

255
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Speaker 3: Here's where I'm at. Yeah, I get the concerns with

256
00:12:36,600 --> 00:12:39,880
Speaker 3: the Arsenal offense here. I mean averaging one point three

257
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Speaker 3: to five non penalty xtally P ninety in the Premier

258
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Speaker 3: League when you're supposed to be a title contender is

259
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Speaker 3: a tad concerning. Although Arteta has been rotating quite a

260
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Speaker 3: few attackers up there, he's been trying to keta quite

261
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Speaker 3: a bit up top. Finally on Saturday he just went

262
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Speaker 3: back to the tried and true front three that brought

263
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Speaker 3: a lot of success over you know, wretches of last

264
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Speaker 3: season because Jesus was injured for a good stretch there.

265
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Speaker 3: But if Sevilla, it's interesting what Sevia is going to

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Speaker 3: do here because they've shown time and time again that

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Speaker 3: they can press high, but they just continue to eleait

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00:13:13,120 --> 00:13:16,240
Speaker 3: goals left and right and left and right, and they're

269
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Speaker 3: not good in the center of the pitch. They're trying

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Speaker 3: out to you know, Bubakar Sumare former lester midfielder. He's

271
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Speaker 3: barely featured for them this season, like he's in now

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Speaker 3: we're bringing in a new manager. By the way, Alonso,

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Speaker 3: this is his first ever job in Europe. He's only

274
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Speaker 3: been managing in Mexico and South America and then obviously

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Speaker 3: the Uruguayan national team. He set him up in a

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Speaker 3: four to three three against Real Madrid. I mean, Madrid

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Speaker 3: missed three huge chances against them, so I'm not going

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Speaker 3: to take a.

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Speaker 1: Game was pretty even though they played.

280
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Speaker 3: They play alright, but again the defense continues to leak

281
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Speaker 3: goals and goals and goals, and so in this type

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Speaker 3: of situation where Arsenal is still an unbelievable defensive team,

283
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Speaker 3: like that's my biggest takeaway is like, yes, they made

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Speaker 3: some mistake and build up that gave Chelsea a few chances,

285
00:14:02,200 --> 00:14:06,760
Speaker 3: but Chelsea outside of the penalty created point six x

286
00:14:06,840 --> 00:14:09,960
Speaker 3: chief overplay. That was it then one shot with an

287
00:14:09,960 --> 00:14:14,880
Speaker 3: next rating over point one. So Arsenal can defend exactly

288
00:14:14,960 --> 00:14:17,839
Speaker 3: what Sevia likes to do. They are second in the

289
00:14:17,840 --> 00:14:21,280
Speaker 3: Premier League and crosses allowed into the penalty area gabriel

290
00:14:21,280 --> 00:14:23,160
Speaker 3: If Gabrielle went healthy is one of the best aerial

291
00:14:23,240 --> 00:14:26,800
Speaker 3: defenders in the Premier League. They can defend Sevia of

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00:14:26,840 --> 00:14:30,760
Speaker 3: what they like to do. Now the question is can

293
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Speaker 3: Arsenal get the goal to cover this. I believe they do,

294
00:14:33,400 --> 00:14:35,640
Speaker 3: and I believe that their style of play can frustrate

295
00:14:35,680 --> 00:14:37,840
Speaker 3: Sevia to the point where they will come out of

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Speaker 3: their low defensive block and try to press Arsenal because

297
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Speaker 3: they've seen teams turn over Arsenal and.

298
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Speaker 2: Build up play.

299
00:14:44,600 --> 00:14:46,800
Speaker 3: And the other thing that I would love to see

300
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Speaker 3: Arte to do is maybe not start Georgina in the

301
00:14:49,360 --> 00:14:52,120
Speaker 3: middle of the pitch, maybe stite, start Chiaverts or start

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00:14:52,440 --> 00:14:56,200
Speaker 3: Party and allow either whether they'd be Rice or Averts

303
00:14:56,240 --> 00:14:59,120
Speaker 3: to get forward from that eight role and help Odegard

304
00:14:59,360 --> 00:15:02,480
Speaker 3: alongside of that. So I think that's what can help

305
00:15:02,800 --> 00:15:07,080
Speaker 3: Arsenal in this type of situation. Now, Martinelli obviously being

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00:15:07,120 --> 00:15:08,760
Speaker 3: healthy on the left, and we'll see what with Sokka

307
00:15:08,760 --> 00:15:11,040
Speaker 3: getting in those one v one situations. If Arsenal wants

308
00:15:11,080 --> 00:15:13,160
Speaker 3: to overload, the middle of the pitch is going to

309
00:15:13,200 --> 00:15:16,120
Speaker 3: be key because Savia is not great defending in wide areas,

310
00:15:16,200 --> 00:15:20,320
Speaker 3: so that's where Arsenal can create those chances. The concern,

311
00:15:20,400 --> 00:15:23,720
Speaker 3: now here's my real concern with Arsenal, and it's kind

312
00:15:23,720 --> 00:15:27,600
Speaker 3: of a concern I have when Tottenham likes to play

313
00:15:27,640 --> 00:15:29,520
Speaker 3: low block teams. They haven't played a really really good

314
00:15:29,560 --> 00:15:32,160
Speaker 3: one yet. They just don't have the aerial threat in

315
00:15:32,200 --> 00:15:35,280
Speaker 3: the middle that if the teams want to play compact

316
00:15:35,320 --> 00:15:37,640
Speaker 3: that they can just swing the ball into and head

317
00:15:37,640 --> 00:15:39,680
Speaker 3: the ball in the back of the net. Gaba his

318
00:15:39,880 --> 00:15:42,080
Speaker 3: is just isn't that type of guy. So if teams

319
00:15:42,080 --> 00:15:45,120
Speaker 3: want to play compact against them, that is the concern

320
00:15:45,160 --> 00:15:48,520
Speaker 3: for here for Arsenal. But Savia again, we're going on

321
00:15:48,600 --> 00:15:51,800
Speaker 3: two years now where they've conceded over one point four

322
00:15:51,880 --> 00:15:54,400
Speaker 3: xg per ninety in the lowest scoring league in Europe.

323
00:15:54,720 --> 00:15:57,280
Speaker 3: Like that is really really concerning and it has not

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Speaker 3: fixed through the fourth manager in a little over a year.

325
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Speaker 2: So I get the new manager.

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Speaker 3: Bounce, But I mean I'm projecting Arsenal minus one seventy six,

327
00:16:07,080 --> 00:16:10,720
Speaker 3: So it's a very big projection edge for me with

328
00:16:11,040 --> 00:16:13,280
Speaker 3: a severe team that has been a negative expected gold

329
00:16:13,280 --> 00:16:16,760
Speaker 3: official team for a long time now. So Arsenal minus

330
00:16:16,760 --> 00:16:19,520
Speaker 3: one twenty for me on the money line.

331
00:16:19,720 --> 00:16:21,600
Speaker 1: No, I don't think it's that different from the Long Spot.

332
00:16:21,600 --> 00:16:23,320
Speaker 1: I mean, Long was playing terribly. They were at the

333
00:16:23,360 --> 00:16:26,360
Speaker 1: bottom of Legue one. It's a home Champions League match,

334
00:16:26,360 --> 00:16:28,080
Speaker 1: They're gonna be up for it, and I just think,

335
00:16:28,120 --> 00:16:29,920
Speaker 1: like I think Arsenal would be better if they took

336
00:16:29,920 --> 00:16:32,040
Speaker 1: more chances of possession, but they're not doing it.

337
00:16:31,600 --> 00:16:34,520
Speaker 3: But nothing in that like they created point seven, they

338
00:16:34,520 --> 00:16:36,720
Speaker 3: didn't do anything, and there's a lot of last ditch defending.

339
00:16:36,760 --> 00:16:37,200
Speaker 2: At the end.

340
00:16:37,520 --> 00:16:40,600
Speaker 3: They got quite fortunate to keep out Arsenal from scoring twice,

341
00:16:40,680 --> 00:16:45,360
Speaker 3: so we'll see. I I think you're overblowing it a bit,

342
00:16:45,920 --> 00:16:49,440
Speaker 3: but I also am biased, so I think you path,

343
00:16:49,480 --> 00:16:52,320
Speaker 3: you listener, can decide who you want to side with

344
00:16:52,360 --> 00:16:55,520
Speaker 3: in this match. Unfortunately, we're gonna be aligned on pretty

345
00:16:55,560 --> 00:16:58,200
Speaker 3: much everything else. So that's gonna sad, you know, for

346
00:16:58,320 --> 00:17:00,320
Speaker 3: entertainment purposes, not gonna be great. But let's move on

347
00:17:01,000 --> 00:17:05,760
Speaker 3: to another Tuesday match. Let's go to.

348
00:17:07,200 --> 00:17:07,600
Speaker 2: Braga.

349
00:17:07,640 --> 00:17:13,080
Speaker 3: Speaking of Real Madrid, Braga hosting Real Madrid. Bragus plus

350
00:17:13,119 --> 00:17:15,960
Speaker 3: five twenty five. Real Madrid sitting at minus two twenty

351
00:17:15,960 --> 00:17:17,040
Speaker 3: five with the.

352
00:17:17,040 --> 00:17:18,440
Speaker 2: Draw at four to one.

353
00:17:18,520 --> 00:17:20,320
Speaker 3: I know you have nothing on this match, which I'm

354
00:17:20,400 --> 00:17:22,320
Speaker 3: kind of surprised because I think you've faded Real Madrid

355
00:17:22,359 --> 00:17:26,080
Speaker 3: in what every match this season so far, except for.

356
00:17:26,040 --> 00:17:30,320
Speaker 1: The one where they didn't. I do lean toward the

357
00:17:30,400 --> 00:17:34,320
Speaker 1: under here, like this Braga team has run so good overall,

358
00:17:34,840 --> 00:17:36,879
Speaker 1: and even in their last you know match, getting a

359
00:17:36,920 --> 00:17:39,720
Speaker 1: couple of bangers goal of the season and Champions League

360
00:17:39,760 --> 00:17:43,480
Speaker 1: season from from from FIFA fourteen legend ruma. But uh yeah,

361
00:17:43,520 --> 00:17:47,440
Speaker 1: I'm not too too keen on this spot for Real Madrid.

362
00:17:47,480 --> 00:17:50,520
Speaker 1: I think it's it's a tricky one, but I don't

363
00:17:50,560 --> 00:17:53,359
Speaker 1: want to bet Braga either, so this is a pretty

364
00:17:53,440 --> 00:17:55,800
Speaker 1: relatively easy pass. If Real Madrid gets an early one,

365
00:17:56,160 --> 00:17:58,360
Speaker 1: I will be looking for live unders though. I think

366
00:17:58,359 --> 00:17:59,359
Speaker 1: that's a good way to play this one.

367
00:17:59,440 --> 00:18:02,040
Speaker 3: Yeah, I do like rog A plus one. That's pricing.

368
00:18:02,040 --> 00:18:04,520
Speaker 3: You can finds plus one eight on that. So what

369
00:18:04,640 --> 00:18:06,400
Speaker 3: I think they can do a really good job of

370
00:18:06,440 --> 00:18:08,760
Speaker 3: here is that one of the weird things about Real

371
00:18:08,800 --> 00:18:11,320
Speaker 3: Madrid this season is they've allowed the most crosses to

372
00:18:11,320 --> 00:18:14,280
Speaker 3: be completed into their penalty area of anybody in La Liga.

373
00:18:14,359 --> 00:18:18,200
Speaker 3: That's kind of a concerning thing, especially when you're facing

374
00:18:18,240 --> 00:18:20,040
Speaker 3: a Broga team that is very good in wide areas

375
00:18:20,040 --> 00:18:21,840
Speaker 3: and that's where they want to attack. They played it

376
00:18:21,840 --> 00:18:24,080
Speaker 3: before four two. They want to get the ball out

377
00:18:24,119 --> 00:18:26,400
Speaker 3: wide areas for those quick transitional attacks, send their full

378
00:18:26,480 --> 00:18:29,800
Speaker 3: backs high. They've completed the most process of anybody in Portugal.

379
00:18:30,080 --> 00:18:33,240
Speaker 3: And speaking of a spot, Portugal was off this weekend,

380
00:18:33,520 --> 00:18:36,719
Speaker 3: so they have had the international break a full week

381
00:18:37,080 --> 00:18:38,959
Speaker 3: and now they get to play Real Madrid, so they

382
00:18:38,960 --> 00:18:41,560
Speaker 3: can gear up for this one fully rested, fully fit,

383
00:18:42,040 --> 00:18:43,920
Speaker 3: and I think it's a good opportunity for them here

384
00:18:43,960 --> 00:18:47,480
Speaker 3: to maybe steal a point against a Real Madrid team

385
00:18:47,560 --> 00:18:48,520
Speaker 3: that you know.

386
00:18:48,520 --> 00:18:51,960
Speaker 2: It's very interesting what they're going to do this entire season.

387
00:18:51,720 --> 00:18:54,560
Speaker 3: Just without a true striker, and if Bellingham is really

388
00:18:54,600 --> 00:18:57,119
Speaker 3: just going to continually save them over and over and

389
00:18:57,160 --> 00:18:59,160
Speaker 3: over again. But hey, you know what, it may work.

390
00:18:59,840 --> 00:19:02,800
Speaker 3: But in this spot, I think there is some value

391
00:19:03,000 --> 00:19:07,680
Speaker 3: on Braga. Let's move on. Neither of us have anything

392
00:19:07,840 --> 00:19:10,640
Speaker 3: in Unyon Berlin and Napoli. I'll tell people out there,

393
00:19:10,640 --> 00:19:13,320
Speaker 3: if you follow my projections, I do project value on

394
00:19:13,359 --> 00:19:18,000
Speaker 3: the under and UH and on Unyon Berlin, but a

395
00:19:18,040 --> 00:19:19,920
Speaker 3: lot of that is prior your data from what we've

396
00:19:19,960 --> 00:19:22,359
Speaker 3: saw last season. I don't think I would play that

397
00:19:22,480 --> 00:19:25,159
Speaker 3: if I was anybody either of those. I was projecting

398
00:19:25,240 --> 00:19:27,000
Speaker 3: value on the draw and maybe I'll just do that

399
00:19:27,040 --> 00:19:28,440
Speaker 3: for the fun of it. But I don't really see

400
00:19:28,520 --> 00:19:32,680
Speaker 3: much value in that in Union Berlin or Napoli.

401
00:19:34,240 --> 00:19:37,840
Speaker 1: It is amazing. We should talk about un Berlin briefly. Uh,

402
00:19:38,119 --> 00:19:44,200
Speaker 1: they have lost eight straight matches, this is I mean,

403
00:19:44,200 --> 00:19:46,800
Speaker 1: and I have bet against them in let me see,

404
00:19:47,000 --> 00:19:50,119
Speaker 1: h none of those eight matches, So that's kind of

405
00:19:50,160 --> 00:19:50,840
Speaker 1: yere it's been for me.

406
00:19:51,400 --> 00:19:51,480
Speaker 2: Uh.

407
00:19:51,600 --> 00:19:53,240
Speaker 1: You know, we talked about this team being a fraud

408
00:19:53,280 --> 00:19:55,600
Speaker 1: and like the market New Market's not that dum like

409
00:19:55,600 --> 00:19:57,240
Speaker 1: they knew that they were fraudulent. See, there's not a

410
00:19:57,280 --> 00:19:59,879
Speaker 1: ton of value in going against them. Usually they have

411
00:19:59,880 --> 00:20:03,359
Speaker 1: a a couple favorite spots where they got beat, you know, Hoffenheim,

412
00:20:03,440 --> 00:20:06,400
Speaker 1: Hide and him, et cetera. But this weekend against Stuttgart

413
00:20:06,440 --> 00:20:09,040
Speaker 1: another like, okay, we had a bad run, we come

414
00:20:09,080 --> 00:20:12,000
Speaker 1: back from the break, we're at home and we put

415
00:20:12,040 --> 00:20:13,640
Speaker 1: in a total dot and get blown off the field

416
00:20:13,640 --> 00:20:16,800
Speaker 1: by stut Gart Like it was really bad. And so yeah,

417
00:20:16,920 --> 00:20:19,520
Speaker 1: you know, the defense has fallen off and the attack's

418
00:20:19,520 --> 00:20:21,880
Speaker 1: always been bad, and now the defense isn't good enough

419
00:20:21,880 --> 00:20:24,040
Speaker 1: to hold up. So that you know, we talked about

420
00:20:24,080 --> 00:20:26,760
Speaker 1: attacking regression with this team for so long and like

421
00:20:26,800 --> 00:20:28,600
Speaker 1: they can't run this good. But the reality was like

422
00:20:28,600 --> 00:20:30,720
Speaker 1: their defense probably wasn't going to stay as like the

423
00:20:30,720 --> 00:20:33,679
Speaker 1: best in the Bundesliga either, and so that has not

424
00:20:34,040 --> 00:20:38,120
Speaker 1: lasted and they have predictively fallen. But you know, good

425
00:20:38,119 --> 00:20:40,119
Speaker 1: for them getting in the Champions League. They're going to

426
00:20:40,160 --> 00:20:42,800
Speaker 1: be out here. And this is the all in spot, right,

427
00:20:42,840 --> 00:20:45,239
Speaker 1: Like you lost your first two matches, You're at home

428
00:20:45,280 --> 00:20:46,959
Speaker 1: against Napoli. You have to get a result here. You're

429
00:20:46,960 --> 00:20:50,080
Speaker 1: pretty much done for the group. So you know, we'll see.

430
00:20:50,080 --> 00:20:52,479
Speaker 1: But I still don't think you can really trust them

431
00:20:52,480 --> 00:20:55,720
Speaker 1: to score against what is an elite, elite Napoli defense

432
00:20:56,040 --> 00:20:58,480
Speaker 1: who will give them nothing in this match.

433
00:20:58,600 --> 00:21:02,359
Speaker 2: So the stuff spot. Yeah, so I'm passing as well.

434
00:21:03,560 --> 00:21:08,240
Speaker 3: Let's move on to Benefica Real Sociadad. I am passing

435
00:21:08,240 --> 00:21:10,919
Speaker 3: on this match. Benefica is a plus one fifteen home favorite,

436
00:21:10,960 --> 00:21:13,720
Speaker 3: Sociadad sitting at plus two forty with a draw also

437
00:21:13,800 --> 00:21:16,960
Speaker 3: plus two forty. But you love our boys from Sociadad here.

438
00:21:17,320 --> 00:21:19,560
Speaker 1: Yeah, I do. Look, you know, if you follow me

439
00:21:19,560 --> 00:21:21,879
Speaker 1: in the action app, you know the Champions League they

440
00:21:21,880 --> 00:21:24,720
Speaker 1: opened openers at the end of the last match week

441
00:21:24,760 --> 00:21:29,080
Speaker 1: and Sociadad was a plus a half minus one ten.

442
00:21:30,200 --> 00:21:33,040
Speaker 1: You know, with Benfica opening minus one ten, that implies

443
00:21:33,040 --> 00:21:35,960
Speaker 1: that Benfica is a better team than Riale sociadad. Don't

444
00:21:35,960 --> 00:21:38,520
Speaker 1: think that's the case anymore. And Benfica can do whatever

445
00:21:38,520 --> 00:21:42,439
Speaker 1: they want in these European and in these Portuguese matches.

446
00:21:42,440 --> 00:21:46,080
Speaker 1: Like their numbers in Portugal are still fine. They beat Porteo,

447
00:21:46,320 --> 00:21:49,680
Speaker 1: they had a good win. You know that they're still

448
00:21:49,720 --> 00:21:52,480
Speaker 1: you know, just one loss in the league. But this

449
00:21:52,640 --> 00:21:56,520
Speaker 1: defense has now conceded three point three to Salzburg. Okay,

450
00:21:56,560 --> 00:21:59,199
Speaker 1: there was a couple penalties in there, but like we

451
00:21:59,240 --> 00:22:00,720
Speaker 1: gave away a penalty case we had to clear the

452
00:22:00,720 --> 00:22:03,320
Speaker 1: ball off the line from going in stuff, and then

453
00:22:04,240 --> 00:22:06,760
Speaker 1: three point eight to enter in a game they could

454
00:22:06,800 --> 00:22:09,320
Speaker 1: have lost by five if Lotaro had a better finishing day.

455
00:22:10,000 --> 00:22:12,560
Speaker 1: It was like Lotaro ran really hot, had one horrible

456
00:22:12,600 --> 00:22:15,880
Speaker 1: game and it all came against this Benfica team. Their

457
00:22:15,920 --> 00:22:19,720
Speaker 1: defense is really really alarming, and it's something we picked

458
00:22:19,800 --> 00:22:22,639
Speaker 1: up on even looking at the Portuguese numbers before the tournament,

459
00:22:22,640 --> 00:22:24,720
Speaker 1: before the tournament even started, we were like, wait a second,

460
00:22:24,760 --> 00:22:28,720
Speaker 1: like they're conceding way more than they normally do in

461
00:22:28,760 --> 00:22:32,080
Speaker 1: the past. In this early schmid ball team, and now

462
00:22:32,119 --> 00:22:35,280
Speaker 1: you want to press a team who is also very

463
00:22:35,359 --> 00:22:37,240
Speaker 1: used to this style of play, who's very comfortable in

464
00:22:37,240 --> 00:22:39,159
Speaker 1: this kind of game. So look, I don't have a

465
00:22:39,200 --> 00:22:41,720
Speaker 1: huge gap here. The market I don't think is downgraded

466
00:22:41,720 --> 00:22:44,399
Speaker 1: Benfica enough. I think everything we said about them, you know,

467
00:22:44,480 --> 00:22:46,000
Speaker 1: and we've been wrong about a lot here. One thing

468
00:22:46,040 --> 00:22:48,040
Speaker 1: we were definitely right about is that Benfica's a fraud

469
00:22:48,320 --> 00:22:49,760
Speaker 1: and so I'm going to play against them again here.

470
00:22:49,800 --> 00:22:51,240
Speaker 1: Like I said, though, the market is getting a little

471
00:22:51,240 --> 00:22:53,960
Speaker 1: bit steep now you had you know, one thirty on

472
00:22:54,000 --> 00:22:55,520
Speaker 1: the plus a half, so it's starting to get out

473
00:22:55,520 --> 00:22:57,760
Speaker 1: of the range where I would play it. But certainly

474
00:22:58,320 --> 00:23:02,280
Speaker 1: like the side on associated here who you know that

475
00:23:02,359 --> 00:23:06,159
Speaker 1: result against Inter where they completely outplayed them, the entirety

476
00:23:06,200 --> 00:23:08,240
Speaker 1: of the match is looking better and better with every

477
00:23:08,280 --> 00:23:12,000
Speaker 1: time every Inter dominant win that they have in Syria

478
00:23:12,040 --> 00:23:14,920
Speaker 1: and interdominating Benfica like that result to me, I know,

479
00:23:15,640 --> 00:23:17,560
Speaker 1: you know, with tram being out, it wasn't a great

480
00:23:17,560 --> 00:23:20,240
Speaker 1: spot for Inter because they kind of rotated a little bit,

481
00:23:20,720 --> 00:23:24,280
Speaker 1: but that performance is really aging well for them. And

482
00:23:25,480 --> 00:23:27,360
Speaker 1: the other thing about Socia DoD is you know they

483
00:23:27,400 --> 00:23:30,920
Speaker 1: rest Kubo over the weekend, So you know, they're doing

484
00:23:31,119 --> 00:23:33,479
Speaker 1: a clear job here of trying to keep everybody rotated

485
00:23:33,520 --> 00:23:35,280
Speaker 1: and fit, and I think a lot of it is like,

486
00:23:35,320 --> 00:23:36,560
Speaker 1: we want to put out our best team in the

487
00:23:36,640 --> 00:23:39,919
Speaker 1: Champions League and look through two matches, they've done that,

488
00:23:39,960 --> 00:23:44,080
Speaker 1: and they've had two really good performances at Salisburg, winning

489
00:23:44,119 --> 00:23:47,440
Speaker 1: there and dominating Insur at home, so they're they're managing

490
00:23:47,600 --> 00:23:51,040
Speaker 1: their competitions. They're a team that is heavily reliant on

491
00:23:51,160 --> 00:23:53,239
Speaker 1: having two or three attackers who can do a lot

492
00:23:53,240 --> 00:23:54,879
Speaker 1: of the work because they're not going to commit a

493
00:23:54,880 --> 00:23:57,439
Speaker 1: lot of numbers forward and so who the attackers are

494
00:23:57,520 --> 00:23:59,399
Speaker 1: make a big difference. But I expect Kubo to play,

495
00:23:59,760 --> 00:24:02,119
Speaker 1: so I like, so she died here.

496
00:24:02,440 --> 00:24:04,919
Speaker 3: Yeah, he came on in the sixtieth minutes against my

497
00:24:05,040 --> 00:24:07,200
Speaker 3: order this weekend, so he's definitely fully fit to play.

498
00:24:07,240 --> 00:24:09,720
Speaker 3: So yeah, definitely, Yeah, I definitely don't have to pay

499
00:24:09,720 --> 00:24:10,040
Speaker 3: the spot.

500
00:24:10,080 --> 00:24:11,760
Speaker 2: Obviously got to pay a little bit of more juice

501
00:24:11,840 --> 00:24:12,600
Speaker 2: for it now.

502
00:24:12,480 --> 00:24:16,320
Speaker 3: But yeah, obviously this Benefica team is a tad fraudulent

503
00:24:16,480 --> 00:24:20,440
Speaker 3: and most likely probably probably gonna drop down into the

504
00:24:20,480 --> 00:24:25,199
Speaker 3: Europa League at this stage. I mean, they could They

505
00:24:25,200 --> 00:24:27,439
Speaker 3: definitely could have meant Salzburg obviously beat them on the

506
00:24:27,440 --> 00:24:31,120
Speaker 3: first day, so obviously he has that advantage over them.

507
00:24:31,640 --> 00:24:35,119
Speaker 3: Let's move on to the rest of Tuesday. United Copenhagen.

508
00:24:35,400 --> 00:24:38,000
Speaker 3: I don't have anything for this match. I'm potentially maybe

509
00:24:38,000 --> 00:24:41,639
Speaker 3: looking at over three. It's currently at plus one oh four.

510
00:24:42,680 --> 00:24:45,640
Speaker 3: It's interesting Casamiro is questionable to play in this match

511
00:24:45,680 --> 00:24:47,560
Speaker 3: and they may rest him with the Manchester Derby coming

512
00:24:47,600 --> 00:24:50,760
Speaker 3: up this weekend and obviously the Manchester unit, we don't

513
00:24:50,760 --> 00:24:52,560
Speaker 3: need to get into Manchester United. We'll save that for

514
00:24:52,600 --> 00:24:53,080
Speaker 3: the derby.

515
00:24:53,800 --> 00:24:54,680
Speaker 1: Can they rest him?

516
00:24:55,119 --> 00:24:56,560
Speaker 3: That's the thing is like they're gonna have to They're

517
00:24:56,560 --> 00:25:00,560
Speaker 3: going to have to play mctomaney, so that might be

518
00:25:00,680 --> 00:25:03,320
Speaker 3: might be this point, I don't know, And you know,

519
00:25:03,359 --> 00:25:05,359
Speaker 3: it was encouraged, like you know, it was encouraging what

520
00:25:05,400 --> 00:25:11,960
Speaker 3: Copenhagen did against Bayern Munich. But again United wants to

521
00:25:11,960 --> 00:25:13,760
Speaker 3: play a lot more transitional, a lot more open at

522
00:25:13,760 --> 00:25:16,840
Speaker 3: the stage. They're not playing this like stranglehold possession style

523
00:25:16,920 --> 00:25:20,760
Speaker 3: right now. So Copenhagen could have some really good chances

524
00:25:20,800 --> 00:25:24,480
Speaker 3: in transition, which I think could create a very back

525
00:25:24,480 --> 00:25:26,879
Speaker 3: and forth type match. And it's obviously away from home now,

526
00:25:26,920 --> 00:25:29,560
Speaker 3: so they don't have the aid of the crowd with

527
00:25:29,680 --> 00:25:33,440
Speaker 3: them home defensively. But one more in the final match

528
00:25:33,440 --> 00:25:38,760
Speaker 3: of Tuesday, I have something for this match Lens against PSV.

529
00:25:40,160 --> 00:25:43,639
Speaker 3: Lens is a plus one thirty seven home favorite PSV

530
00:25:44,000 --> 00:25:46,639
Speaker 3: plus one eighty seven, with the draw at plus two sixty.

531
00:25:46,880 --> 00:25:49,320
Speaker 3: I like PSV. I like them drawn. No Bett at

532
00:25:49,359 --> 00:25:51,480
Speaker 3: plus one eighteen is the best price you can find

533
00:25:51,520 --> 00:25:54,400
Speaker 3: right now. Here is the thing. I'm not so sure

534
00:25:54,400 --> 00:25:57,520
Speaker 3: that Lens should be a favorite at home here. The

535
00:25:57,640 --> 00:26:02,200
Speaker 3: underlying metrics for Peter Boss's team in the Netherlands has

536
00:26:02,280 --> 00:26:06,320
Speaker 3: been unreal plus twenty one expected goal differential in nine

537
00:26:06,320 --> 00:26:09,360
Speaker 3: matches they're averaging over three expected goals for NEETTI. Now,

538
00:26:09,600 --> 00:26:12,639
Speaker 3: to be fair, they haven't played fiin Ord, they haven't

539
00:26:12,680 --> 00:26:14,720
Speaker 3: played i X, they haven't played anybody good.

540
00:26:15,040 --> 00:26:16,720
Speaker 2: But putting up those.

541
00:26:16,520 --> 00:26:19,720
Speaker 3: Type of numbers is very, very impressive. And the last

542
00:26:19,760 --> 00:26:23,320
Speaker 3: match against Sevilla they throttled them. Expected goals was two

543
00:26:23,320 --> 00:26:26,359
Speaker 3: point six to one point three. Box entries and shots

544
00:26:26,400 --> 00:26:30,400
Speaker 3: were both twenty five to ten. Completely dominant match at home.

545
00:26:30,440 --> 00:26:33,600
Speaker 3: Now they're going on the road here to France and listen,

546
00:26:33,680 --> 00:26:37,080
Speaker 3: Lens has had this really meteoric rise where they went

547
00:26:37,160 --> 00:26:40,360
Speaker 3: up to second place. They overperformed all their defensive metrics.

548
00:26:40,400 --> 00:26:43,040
Speaker 3: They play a very unique style, you know, a three

549
00:26:43,080 --> 00:26:46,359
Speaker 3: four three where they want to get out and really

550
00:26:46,520 --> 00:26:49,040
Speaker 3: create overloads in the wide areas and create a lot

551
00:26:49,080 --> 00:26:53,359
Speaker 3: of chances of via crosses. That's all well and good,

552
00:26:53,560 --> 00:26:57,920
Speaker 3: but again they've lost their best two players. They're underlying

553
00:26:57,960 --> 00:27:00,960
Speaker 3: metrics now in France have not been good through nine matches, only.

554
00:27:00,880 --> 00:27:02,960
Speaker 2: A plus one expected gold differential, not the.

555
00:27:03,560 --> 00:27:06,479
Speaker 3: Plus zero point six xtally differential p ninety that they

556
00:27:06,480 --> 00:27:09,560
Speaker 3: were last year in France. And the one thing that

557
00:27:09,560 --> 00:27:12,680
Speaker 3: they've been struggling with defensively this season is set pieces.

558
00:27:12,680 --> 00:27:15,080
Speaker 3: Their third to last and next cheaper set piece allowed

559
00:27:15,280 --> 00:27:17,879
Speaker 3: PSB is the most efficient set piece team in the Netherlands.

560
00:27:18,040 --> 00:27:19,840
Speaker 3: They are, you know, they obviously have a ton of

561
00:27:19,840 --> 00:27:23,760
Speaker 3: attacking talent. And here's the last point I want to make.

562
00:27:23,800 --> 00:27:26,959
Speaker 3: Just from a mathematical standpoint, based on UA of coefficients,

563
00:27:26,960 --> 00:27:29,359
Speaker 3: Netherlands is ready to higher than France right now now.

564
00:27:29,600 --> 00:27:32,160
Speaker 3: To be fair, you know, per transfer market dot Com

565
00:27:32,359 --> 00:27:35,480
Speaker 3: total league transfer value, France is well above the Netherlands.

566
00:27:35,520 --> 00:27:37,440
Speaker 3: But the point is is that these two leagues are

567
00:27:37,480 --> 00:27:40,560
Speaker 3: really not far off from each other right now, and

568
00:27:40,600 --> 00:27:43,359
Speaker 3: even per transfer market dot Com, PSB is a higher

569
00:27:43,520 --> 00:27:46,679
Speaker 3: squad transfer value than LENS. So I really think they

570
00:27:46,680 --> 00:27:48,639
Speaker 3: are a better team given their underlying metrics have been

571
00:27:48,640 --> 00:27:52,360
Speaker 3: a goal better per ninety domestically in the Netherlands versus

572
00:27:52,400 --> 00:27:54,800
Speaker 3: what LENS has done in France. So I had PSB

573
00:27:54,920 --> 00:27:57,200
Speaker 3: as a road favorite here, so I like them drawing

574
00:27:57,200 --> 00:27:59,639
Speaker 3: no bet at plus one eighteen in a very desperate

575
00:27:59,680 --> 00:28:01,439
Speaker 3: spot for them because they only have one point through

576
00:28:01,480 --> 00:28:03,480
Speaker 3: two matches and they really really need to result here.

577
00:28:03,560 --> 00:28:06,800
Speaker 2: So PSV johno bet at plus one eighteen.

578
00:28:07,200 --> 00:28:10,040
Speaker 1: Yeah, PSV, you know, was a team that I came

579
00:28:10,080 --> 00:28:11,879
Speaker 1: in on. This was like, yeah, you know, I think

580
00:28:11,880 --> 00:28:13,520
Speaker 1: the market's a little bit high on their attack than

581
00:28:13,560 --> 00:28:16,320
Speaker 1: I am. But the production they're getting from like Long

582
00:28:16,320 --> 00:28:19,119
Speaker 1: and them has been really impressive. So through two matches

583
00:28:19,119 --> 00:28:22,399
Speaker 1: they've created a good number of chances. I know, Arsenal

584
00:28:22,480 --> 00:28:23,760
Speaker 1: beat the hell out of them in that game, but

585
00:28:23,760 --> 00:28:25,879
Speaker 1: they they were able to get a decent number of

586
00:28:26,359 --> 00:28:29,359
Speaker 1: threatening opportunities that didn't really result in a ton of chances,

587
00:28:29,400 --> 00:28:33,199
Speaker 1: but was like dangerous. And then the LENS match, Like

588
00:28:33,240 --> 00:28:34,960
Speaker 1: I thought that I assume you have the LENS match,

589
00:28:35,040 --> 00:28:38,080
Speaker 1: the Sevia match, Like, yes, they created a ton of

590
00:28:38,200 --> 00:28:41,320
Speaker 1: chances and didn't ultimately get through. Now, some of that

591
00:28:41,320 --> 00:28:44,040
Speaker 1: did come really late, so it was like desperation type

592
00:28:44,040 --> 00:28:46,240
Speaker 1: stuff like the last you know, ten to fifteen minutes,

593
00:28:46,520 --> 00:28:48,240
Speaker 1: but even early on in that game, like they ended

594
00:28:48,320 --> 00:28:51,520
Speaker 1: up north of twenty shots. So this attack that I

595
00:28:51,720 --> 00:28:54,120
Speaker 1: was kind of like, I don't really know about it.

596
00:28:54,120 --> 00:28:56,960
Speaker 1: It seems to be better than maybe I thought. So, yeah,

597
00:28:57,000 --> 00:28:58,360
Speaker 1: no play for me here, but you know, if you

598
00:28:58,400 --> 00:29:00,240
Speaker 1: made me better, I would look toward the under. I

599
00:29:00,280 --> 00:29:02,440
Speaker 1: still don't really trust this lens goal scoring situation.

600
00:29:03,320 --> 00:29:06,440
Speaker 2: Yeah for sure. Let's move on to Wednesday.

601
00:29:07,240 --> 00:29:11,960
Speaker 3: Let's start with let's just start in the Group of death,

602
00:29:12,480 --> 00:29:16,320
Speaker 3: PSG taking on AC Milan. PSG is minus one thirty

603
00:29:16,360 --> 00:29:19,480
Speaker 3: eight AC Milan plus three fifty with the draw at

604
00:29:19,720 --> 00:29:23,440
Speaker 3: plus three hundred. I'm passing on this one. I'm pretty

605
00:29:23,480 --> 00:29:25,880
Speaker 3: close to where the market is. It's kind of interesting.

606
00:29:26,040 --> 00:29:30,680
Speaker 3: You know, we watched Newcastle just completely dismantle PSG's build

607
00:29:30,760 --> 00:29:33,880
Speaker 3: up play. That's not what Milan's gonna do. They're gonna

608
00:29:33,880 --> 00:29:35,800
Speaker 3: play much more passive in this type of match.

609
00:29:35,800 --> 00:29:36,480
Speaker 2: That's kind of interesting.

610
00:29:36,480 --> 00:29:39,880
Speaker 3: To see if basically can PSG break that break that

611
00:29:39,920 --> 00:29:41,560
Speaker 3: low block down and how good are they going to

612
00:29:41,600 --> 00:29:44,840
Speaker 3: be defending in transition against Layou and pull a stitching company.

613
00:29:44,960 --> 00:29:48,680
Speaker 3: So I am passing, but you potentially maybe like the

614
00:29:48,760 --> 00:29:49,240
Speaker 3: total here.

615
00:29:49,720 --> 00:29:53,640
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm gonna take another PSG under hopefully it goes

616
00:29:53,640 --> 00:29:56,200
Speaker 1: better than last time. Look, the matchup is totally different

617
00:29:56,200 --> 00:29:59,560
Speaker 1: from PSG going to Newcastle and PSG hosting Milan. Right,

618
00:29:59,600 --> 00:30:02,320
Speaker 1: So Milan is very comfortable defending without the ball. They're

619
00:30:02,400 --> 00:30:05,160
Speaker 1: very comfortable out of possession, not taking a ton of

620
00:30:05,240 --> 00:30:10,600
Speaker 1: chances to press and giving PSG the ball in those

621
00:30:10,640 --> 00:30:12,960
Speaker 1: final third areas. Now, you know, I think what I

622
00:30:13,000 --> 00:30:15,720
Speaker 1: was wrong about was, you know, just how high Newcastle

623
00:30:15,760 --> 00:30:18,000
Speaker 1: would press and beat the hell out of PSG and

624
00:30:18,080 --> 00:30:21,880
Speaker 1: force those high turnovers. Also, yes, Newcastle scored four goals

625
00:30:21,880 --> 00:30:23,720
Speaker 1: on like one point two XG, so you know.

626
00:30:23,840 --> 00:30:24,280
Speaker 2: Spare me.

627
00:30:24,560 --> 00:30:27,160
Speaker 1: But Milan is not gonna do any of that to

628
00:30:27,160 --> 00:30:31,640
Speaker 1: try to disrupt or bother the PSG possession. They have

629
00:30:31,880 --> 00:30:37,080
Speaker 1: the midfield athleticism and the defensive ability I think to

630
00:30:37,160 --> 00:30:40,240
Speaker 1: not be completely overwhelmed by killing Mbappe. So that's a

631
00:30:40,280 --> 00:30:44,640
Speaker 1: that's a nice positive. They've defended against world class talents

632
00:30:44,640 --> 00:30:47,600
Speaker 1: effectively in you know, their mattress against Napoli for example,

633
00:30:48,440 --> 00:30:51,880
Speaker 1: and so I don't think they're gonna get totally overwhelmed here. Milan,

634
00:30:52,080 --> 00:30:55,080
Speaker 1: you know, comes off of a Sunday turnaround, so not great,

635
00:30:55,120 --> 00:30:57,120
Speaker 1: They're gonna have one less data to get ready for this.

636
00:30:57,640 --> 00:31:00,520
Speaker 1: But I think the biggest thing is that Enrique has

637
00:31:00,560 --> 00:31:02,320
Speaker 1: showed us time and time again who he is and

638
00:31:02,320 --> 00:31:05,080
Speaker 1: what he wants to be, and I think it's a

639
00:31:05,240 --> 00:31:08,640
Speaker 1: very capable defensive team. He is not going to let

640
00:31:08,760 --> 00:31:11,320
Speaker 1: Leao get any opportunities in transition. They're going to you know,

641
00:31:11,560 --> 00:31:14,760
Speaker 1: be almost doubled up on him. Kimmi's athleticism I think

642
00:31:14,840 --> 00:31:16,560
Speaker 1: is really important here. He's not like known for his

643
00:31:16,600 --> 00:31:19,200
Speaker 1: defense first, but just his pure athleticism is a major

644
00:31:19,240 --> 00:31:21,880
Speaker 1: key for them defending against Leo up that left wing

645
00:31:22,160 --> 00:31:26,200
Speaker 1: and look, Milan is not taking any chances. Their attack

646
00:31:26,360 --> 00:31:28,680
Speaker 1: is basically built off of the fact that Christian Poulisic

647
00:31:29,000 --> 00:31:31,160
Speaker 1: has had a really hot finishing run to start his career.

648
00:31:31,560 --> 00:31:34,280
Speaker 1: He scored some really nice goals and the fact they've

649
00:31:34,280 --> 00:31:36,680
Speaker 1: gotten a handful of penalties. That's been their entire attack

650
00:31:36,680 --> 00:31:39,080
Speaker 1: in Syria and in what's happened in the Champions League.

651
00:31:39,160 --> 00:31:42,400
Speaker 1: They had a good performance in the first game against Milan,

652
00:31:42,520 --> 00:31:45,120
Speaker 1: but I mean nothing in the Dortmund game. It was

653
00:31:45,160 --> 00:31:48,520
Speaker 1: a just a dead rubber for large stretches with no

654
00:31:48,560 --> 00:31:51,040
Speaker 1: real big scoring chances created. So, you know, you look

655
00:31:51,040 --> 00:31:53,280
Speaker 1: at Milan's numbers and I want to talk about polistic

656
00:31:53,400 --> 00:31:56,920
Speaker 1: especially the attack is built on Leoo, right. Leo's the guy,

657
00:31:57,360 --> 00:32:01,120
Speaker 1: He's the one they're relying on to bring the ball

658
00:32:01,120 --> 00:32:04,160
Speaker 1: into the penalty area. It's why they're really good at,

659
00:32:04,760 --> 00:32:07,360
Speaker 1: you know, progressive dribbles and progressive carries in the box.

660
00:32:07,640 --> 00:32:10,600
Speaker 1: It's basically just we have Leo pull A sick as

661
00:32:10,600 --> 00:32:14,120
Speaker 1: has managed thirteen shots in nine hundred minutes from Milan

662
00:32:14,200 --> 00:32:17,200
Speaker 1: this year. It's bad. That's like less than one and

663
00:32:17,200 --> 00:32:20,200
Speaker 1: a half shots per ninety and Jeruz numbers are okay,

664
00:32:20,280 --> 00:32:22,360
Speaker 1: but they're not taking chances on the third guy into

665
00:32:22,360 --> 00:32:24,760
Speaker 1: the box. And I don't think you're gonna see a

666
00:32:24,760 --> 00:32:28,600
Speaker 1: ton of tail Hernandez overlaps here because again Pioli is

667
00:32:28,640 --> 00:32:31,280
Speaker 1: not gonna take chances at a certain point. You know,

668
00:32:31,600 --> 00:32:33,600
Speaker 1: is six draws going to be enough for Milan to

669
00:32:33,600 --> 00:32:36,000
Speaker 1: get out of this group? Because it feels like they're

670
00:32:36,040 --> 00:32:40,280
Speaker 1: playing for six draws. But I you know, I think

671
00:32:40,320 --> 00:32:42,840
Speaker 1: this is not the spot away against PSG where they're

672
00:32:42,840 --> 00:32:44,280
Speaker 1: gonna have to take chances. I think the goal is

673
00:32:44,360 --> 00:32:46,600
Speaker 1: stay in this group as long as possible, and so

674
00:32:46,840 --> 00:32:48,560
Speaker 1: you know, with the under two and a half at

675
00:32:48,560 --> 00:32:51,240
Speaker 1: plus money, I think it's a little high. So that's

676
00:32:51,280 --> 00:32:53,640
Speaker 1: that's where I would look here in that one. You know,

677
00:32:53,680 --> 00:32:56,520
Speaker 1: the defense from Milan is still very very good. You know,

678
00:32:56,560 --> 00:32:59,080
Speaker 1: they can see point three to Newcastle, point six to Verona,

679
00:32:59,120 --> 00:33:02,320
Speaker 1: point nine, Tokyo point five to Lazzio, less than one

680
00:33:02,360 --> 00:33:04,720
Speaker 1: to Dortmund, point five to Genowa, Like this is an

681
00:33:04,960 --> 00:33:08,920
Speaker 1: elite defense because they don't let you have odd man

682
00:33:08,960 --> 00:33:13,080
Speaker 1: opportunities against them, and PSG has one guy who can

683
00:33:13,240 --> 00:33:16,280
Speaker 1: destroy anybody. But they're also very happy to just take

684
00:33:16,280 --> 00:33:18,120
Speaker 1: a thousand passes and not do anything with the ball.

685
00:33:18,240 --> 00:33:20,320
Speaker 1: So I think this plays out to be a lower

686
00:33:20,360 --> 00:33:20,880
Speaker 1: event match.

687
00:33:21,840 --> 00:33:22,400
Speaker 2: I agree.

688
00:33:22,560 --> 00:33:25,200
Speaker 3: All right, let's move on to the other match in

689
00:33:25,200 --> 00:33:29,520
Speaker 3: that group, Newcastle hosting Dortmund. Newcastle's minus one thirty eight

690
00:33:30,600 --> 00:33:33,920
Speaker 3: Dortmun's plus three fifty with the draw at plus to eighty.

691
00:33:34,320 --> 00:33:37,240
Speaker 3: Newcastle has taken some money here. They're starting to get

692
00:33:37,240 --> 00:33:40,320
Speaker 3: a little bit high in the market, and I think

693
00:33:40,360 --> 00:33:42,320
Speaker 3: the way that you're going to play this is the

694
00:33:42,400 --> 00:33:46,720
Speaker 3: way to play a Dortmund team that was a little fraudulent.

695
00:33:47,160 --> 00:33:52,440
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, look, dortmunds has gotten by, but you know,

696
00:33:52,480 --> 00:33:54,920
Speaker 1: their numbers don't look that bad. If you just pulled

697
00:33:54,960 --> 00:33:57,120
Speaker 1: up like the baruchha dormand page and you said, okay,

698
00:33:57,160 --> 00:33:59,400
Speaker 1: what's their xtually against of late, you'd be like, well,

699
00:33:59,640 --> 00:34:03,440
Speaker 1: it's not that bad. They've had some good moments, but

700
00:34:03,720 --> 00:34:07,920
Speaker 1: they're entirely built on like playing nobody. I mean, this

701
00:34:08,000 --> 00:34:16,880
Speaker 1: is their Bundesliga schedule, Cologne, Bochum, Heidenheim, Freiburg, Wolfsburg at home, Hoffenheim, Union,

702
00:34:16,920 --> 00:34:22,759
Speaker 1: Berlin Vertebremen. That's like two above average teams. Maybe, like

703
00:34:22,800 --> 00:34:24,200
Speaker 1: it depends on what you think of Freiberg, and I

704
00:34:24,239 --> 00:34:26,720
Speaker 1: don't think Freiburg is great. So they have not played

705
00:34:26,760 --> 00:34:30,239
Speaker 1: any of like the big five six teams in the

706
00:34:30,320 --> 00:34:34,680
Speaker 1: Bundesliga this year, and they are still kind of lagging

707
00:34:34,719 --> 00:34:37,560
Speaker 1: behind defensively in their metrics and on paper they just

708
00:34:37,560 --> 00:34:39,359
Speaker 1: don't look like a good defensive team. There's no ball

709
00:34:39,360 --> 00:34:43,040
Speaker 1: winning in the midfield, and so I think that this

710
00:34:43,120 --> 00:34:44,960
Speaker 1: is the kind of team that gets absolutely trucked as

711
00:34:44,960 --> 00:34:48,040
Speaker 1: soon as they go to Newcastle. Now, I think Newcastle

712
00:34:48,040 --> 00:34:49,480
Speaker 1: is actually a little bit inflated here, Like I think

713
00:34:49,480 --> 00:34:51,520
Speaker 1: the numbers kind of what I would make it in

714
00:34:51,600 --> 00:34:55,160
Speaker 1: terms of just like true team strength, but in when

715
00:34:55,440 --> 00:34:57,640
Speaker 1: Dorman faces the press with the quality of that Newcastle

716
00:34:57,680 --> 00:35:00,719
Speaker 1: has and the physicality, are they not gonna win? So

717
00:35:00,880 --> 00:35:03,120
Speaker 1: I think if you want to play this, it's Newcastle alts,

718
00:35:03,120 --> 00:35:04,560
Speaker 1: you know, search like one and a half. I think

719
00:35:04,719 --> 00:35:05,719
Speaker 1: just one and a half is the best way to

720
00:35:05,719 --> 00:35:08,560
Speaker 1: play this because they're good front runners. They're very good

721
00:35:08,560 --> 00:35:10,399
Speaker 1: from your front and when Dormann does have to start

722
00:35:10,400 --> 00:35:12,840
Speaker 1: taking chances that they go down early, all of a sudden,

723
00:35:13,800 --> 00:35:16,319
Speaker 1: they're in big trouble because that's where Newcastle's at their best.

724
00:35:17,040 --> 00:35:20,239
Speaker 1: And look, we talked about Newcastle, we said, what's wrong

725
00:35:20,280 --> 00:35:22,600
Speaker 1: with them? After like four matches, they now have the

726
00:35:22,600 --> 00:35:24,400
Speaker 1: best expected goal differential in the Premier.

727
00:35:24,239 --> 00:35:26,560
Speaker 2: League, created the most pig scoring chances too.

728
00:35:27,280 --> 00:35:30,000
Speaker 1: And they've created the most pig scoring chances, Like they

729
00:35:30,000 --> 00:35:32,160
Speaker 1: put two and a half xg on Palace, who's like

730
00:35:32,160 --> 00:35:32,920
Speaker 1: a very good defense.

731
00:35:32,960 --> 00:35:34,960
Speaker 3: And that's that's and that's just how it's your point, right,

732
00:35:34,960 --> 00:35:38,080
Speaker 3: because a team like Palace is very very good from

733
00:35:38,120 --> 00:35:41,520
Speaker 3: even game states you're playing from a lead. Well suddenly

734
00:35:41,560 --> 00:35:43,239
Speaker 3: when they fall behind and they have to come out

735
00:35:43,280 --> 00:35:46,880
Speaker 3: of this defensive structure. Newcastle is a team that is

736
00:35:47,080 --> 00:35:49,680
Speaker 3: again I've said this like a million times about Newcastle,

737
00:35:49,719 --> 00:35:52,040
Speaker 3: and what makes them so good is that they are

738
00:35:52,080 --> 00:35:54,319
Speaker 3: one of the best transitional teams in the world. And

739
00:35:54,400 --> 00:35:57,759
Speaker 3: suddenly you are stuck in the match of unless you're

740
00:35:57,800 --> 00:35:59,719
Speaker 3: able to hand them the ball and dare them and

741
00:35:59,760 --> 00:36:02,279
Speaker 3: be good enough, solid enough defensively to keep them out

742
00:36:02,320 --> 00:36:04,239
Speaker 3: and dare them to break you down. Like from a

743
00:36:04,280 --> 00:36:07,919
Speaker 3: slow build up perspective, if you want to just play

744
00:36:07,920 --> 00:36:10,040
Speaker 3: transitional back and forth of them, there they'll rip you

745
00:36:10,040 --> 00:36:13,600
Speaker 3: apart again time and time and time again. And like

746
00:36:13,640 --> 00:36:16,439
Speaker 3: you said, when they're front runners, I mean I don't

747
00:36:16,440 --> 00:36:17,920
Speaker 3: have the numbers in front of you, but I'm pretty

748
00:36:17,960 --> 00:36:20,640
Speaker 3: sure it's it's close to you know, plus one and

749
00:36:20,680 --> 00:36:24,560
Speaker 3: a half to close two actually differential per ninety. This

750
00:36:24,560 --> 00:36:28,839
Speaker 3: this season especially, it's it gets really really bad for

751
00:36:28,880 --> 00:36:31,480
Speaker 3: some of these teams. And Dortmund, especially what we saw

752
00:36:31,520 --> 00:36:33,640
Speaker 3: on the road against PSG. I mean they got trucked

753
00:36:33,640 --> 00:36:35,799
Speaker 3: by them in Paris, Like that was a really really

754
00:36:35,840 --> 00:36:38,640
Speaker 3: bad performance for them. So you know, I protected Newcastle

755
00:36:38,719 --> 00:36:40,680
Speaker 3: minus one twenty five. So I'm run the line here

756
00:36:40,719 --> 00:36:41,319
Speaker 3: what the market is.

757
00:36:41,360 --> 00:36:42,640
Speaker 2: So I'm with you.

758
00:36:42,680 --> 00:36:45,839
Speaker 3: If you're somebody who wants to really wants to bet

759
00:36:45,880 --> 00:36:47,760
Speaker 3: this match because it's it's one of the bigger matches

760
00:36:47,800 --> 00:36:50,840
Speaker 3: on Wednesday. Just take Newcastle minus one and a half.

761
00:36:52,000 --> 00:36:53,200
Speaker 3: All right, let's move on.

762
00:36:53,719 --> 00:36:55,279
Speaker 1: Should we should we take two and a half too,

763
00:36:55,600 --> 00:36:58,040
Speaker 1: you know, just lead into it. I think the Doortman

764
00:36:58,080 --> 00:37:00,759
Speaker 1: team is so I do not believe that to be

765
00:37:00,840 --> 00:37:04,760
Speaker 1: any good. I will take that. Like outplayed by Milan,

766
00:37:05,400 --> 00:37:06,680
Speaker 1: you know, it was kind of a dead robber, like

767
00:37:06,719 --> 00:37:08,120
Speaker 1: I said, but like they were outplayed.

768
00:37:08,719 --> 00:37:09,440
Speaker 2: Uh and.

769
00:37:11,200 --> 00:37:14,600
Speaker 1: You know, like PSG never broke a sweat.

770
00:37:14,320 --> 00:37:15,279
Speaker 2: And that just killed them.

771
00:37:15,320 --> 00:37:18,360
Speaker 3: Like even like even their counterpressing was just destroying dormant.

772
00:37:18,440 --> 00:37:19,480
Speaker 2: Like they couldn't play.

773
00:37:19,239 --> 00:37:21,400
Speaker 3: The ball at their own ends, so couldn't keep the ball,

774
00:37:21,440 --> 00:37:23,040
Speaker 3: they couldn't kick the ball. So like, what's gonna happen

775
00:37:23,040 --> 00:37:24,640
Speaker 3: here against like one of the best pressing teams in

776
00:37:24,640 --> 00:37:25,040
Speaker 3: the world.

777
00:37:25,160 --> 00:37:29,239
Speaker 1: So yeah, like like so so you know PSG will

778
00:37:29,239 --> 00:37:30,759
Speaker 1: press you and win the ball off you, but then

779
00:37:30,800 --> 00:37:32,640
Speaker 1: they will keep the ball and do nothing that's why

780
00:37:32,640 --> 00:37:33,920
Speaker 1: that game kind of played out a little dead and

781
00:37:33,920 --> 00:37:36,960
Speaker 1: Pope was really bad. Uh Kolmwani I thought played poorly.

782
00:37:38,280 --> 00:37:40,040
Speaker 1: Newcastle will win the ball off you and then within

783
00:37:40,080 --> 00:37:41,960
Speaker 1: ten seconds the balls in your goal. Yeah, and so

784
00:37:42,080 --> 00:37:44,239
Speaker 1: I think that's the biggest thing here. And and like, look,

785
00:37:44,360 --> 00:37:46,279
Speaker 1: you know, we have to respect the fact that a

786
00:37:46,360 --> 00:37:49,640
Speaker 1: plus one point one xg difference team in the in

787
00:37:49,680 --> 00:37:52,040
Speaker 1: the Premier League, which is actually better than they were

788
00:37:52,120 --> 00:37:57,280
Speaker 1: last year. You know, it's kind of crazy given the situation,

789
00:37:57,440 --> 00:37:59,880
Speaker 1: like the fact that's like they're getting less from Wilson

790
00:37:59,880 --> 00:38:05,000
Speaker 1: and still been better. Midfield is really good at getting forward.

791
00:38:05,080 --> 00:38:08,640
Speaker 3: So yeah, yeah, for sure, still good, a very very

792
00:38:08,640 --> 00:38:13,080
Speaker 3: good team. All right, let's move on to uh this

793
00:38:13,120 --> 00:38:17,680
Speaker 3: is gonna be a fun one fine Ord hosting Lotsio

794
00:38:17,760 --> 00:38:20,040
Speaker 3: fine Ord minus one eighteen, Latzio plus two eighty with

795
00:38:20,040 --> 00:38:21,000
Speaker 3: the draw plus three hundred.

796
00:38:21,040 --> 00:38:23,279
Speaker 2: We're both on the same side here. It's all about

797
00:38:23,280 --> 00:38:24,720
Speaker 2: the Nord in this match.

798
00:38:25,320 --> 00:38:26,560
Speaker 1: I mean, if you had a Leti a couple of

799
00:38:26,560 --> 00:38:29,719
Speaker 1: weeks ago, like send me the lottery number, that was incredible.

800
00:38:29,719 --> 00:38:33,479
Speaker 1: Mean o block was unbelievable in that game at Letti

801
00:38:33,560 --> 00:38:36,680
Speaker 1: scores because the guy faked being off side and then

802
00:38:36,880 --> 00:38:38,759
Speaker 1: you know it felt the greaseman and he finished it

803
00:38:39,200 --> 00:38:42,840
Speaker 1: like fine. You know at LETTI was clinical and Finoid

804
00:38:42,840 --> 00:38:44,720
Speaker 1: had a ton of chances. Oblock was on his head.

805
00:38:45,280 --> 00:38:48,560
Speaker 1: But like again, fine, Ords is just a much better team.

806
00:38:48,600 --> 00:38:50,399
Speaker 1: They're playing at home and him and as his back,

807
00:38:50,600 --> 00:38:53,400
Speaker 1: that's all I need. Lotso had a really impressive performance.

808
00:38:53,440 --> 00:38:54,799
Speaker 1: Like I actually had to bump them over the weekend.

809
00:38:54,800 --> 00:38:57,839
Speaker 1: They pretty much swept the side to swallow on the road,

810
00:38:57,880 --> 00:39:00,680
Speaker 1: which is like a good road win and meaningful, but

811
00:39:02,040 --> 00:39:05,440
Speaker 1: an average Syria team on the road and I get

812
00:39:05,440 --> 00:39:07,000
Speaker 1: to fade them with like a month it's one fifteen

813
00:39:07,000 --> 00:39:09,200
Speaker 1: money line. Yeah, fine Ord, and look you can get

814
00:39:09,239 --> 00:39:11,759
Speaker 1: them to advance still at a pretty good plus money

815
00:39:11,800 --> 00:39:14,960
Speaker 1: price because they they lost that at LETI matching because

816
00:39:15,000 --> 00:39:17,560
Speaker 1: Lazio is ORD laid against Celtic on the road when

817
00:39:17,640 --> 00:39:19,160
Speaker 1: a match they did not deserve to win. They were

818
00:39:19,160 --> 00:39:23,279
Speaker 1: outplayed at Celtic. You know this is like if you

819
00:39:23,280 --> 00:39:24,640
Speaker 1: listen to this podcast, I don't need to go on

820
00:39:24,719 --> 00:39:27,279
Speaker 1: or not about how average Latsio is. Fine Ord, it's

821
00:39:27,320 --> 00:39:31,560
Speaker 1: the team always we back our Nord at home, especially

822
00:39:31,600 --> 00:39:34,680
Speaker 1: so you know, I'm hoping they don't win by too

823
00:39:34,719 --> 00:39:36,040
Speaker 1: much because I want to get a good number in

824
00:39:36,040 --> 00:39:39,080
Speaker 1: the return game in two weeks, because if we win

825
00:39:39,080 --> 00:39:40,560
Speaker 1: by three then we probably won't get a good number

826
00:39:40,560 --> 00:39:42,839
Speaker 1: to back them. But you know, if I can get

827
00:39:42,840 --> 00:39:45,560
Speaker 1: plus a half going at Lozzio, I'm going to hop

828
00:39:45,600 --> 00:39:47,120
Speaker 1: in in two weeks again as well. I just think

829
00:39:47,120 --> 00:39:47,600
Speaker 1: it's crazy.

830
00:39:47,600 --> 00:39:50,280
Speaker 3: Here's what Latzio has done against good competition this season.

831
00:39:51,280 --> 00:39:57,080
Speaker 3: Gains Napoli point six, Juventus point six, Madrid one point two.

832
00:39:57,120 --> 00:39:59,880
Speaker 3: One point five of that was on the goalkeeper header

833
00:40:00,320 --> 00:40:03,640
Speaker 3: in the last ditch, So really under one expected goal

834
00:40:04,280 --> 00:40:06,880
Speaker 3: against Manza, who's a halfway decent team, one expected gole

835
00:40:06,920 --> 00:40:11,719
Speaker 3: Torino point nine, Milan point five, Celtic point seven. And

836
00:40:11,719 --> 00:40:14,360
Speaker 3: then yes, they had good performances against Atlanta and so

837
00:40:14,480 --> 00:40:21,000
Speaker 3: swallow fine ard. Outside of a couple garbage time matches

838
00:40:21,080 --> 00:40:23,759
Speaker 3: early on in the area to Visa, they have not

839
00:40:23,800 --> 00:40:26,440
Speaker 3: allowed anybody to create over one expected goal against them.

840
00:40:26,440 --> 00:40:29,560
Speaker 3: And really, from a stylistic standpoint, you know, sorry ball,

841
00:40:29,800 --> 00:40:31,160
Speaker 3: what does he want to do? He wants to play

842
00:40:31,160 --> 00:40:32,440
Speaker 3: through the ball in the middle of the pitch, you know,

843
00:40:32,560 --> 00:40:35,440
Speaker 3: very short combination passes moving the ball forward, and what

844
00:40:35,520 --> 00:40:37,480
Speaker 3: does slot love to deal. He loves to press you

845
00:40:37,520 --> 00:40:40,080
Speaker 3: high relentlessly and not allow you to do that. So

846
00:40:40,480 --> 00:40:42,200
Speaker 3: this is a really a match they can get out

847
00:40:42,239 --> 00:40:45,560
Speaker 3: of hand very very fast for Lazio if they continually

848
00:40:45,560 --> 00:40:47,960
Speaker 3: to try to play out of the back. So I

849
00:40:47,960 --> 00:40:50,440
Speaker 3: agree with you. I love fine Ord here. I think

850
00:40:50,440 --> 00:40:52,320
Speaker 3: this is a fantastic spot for them. I'm going to

851
00:40:52,360 --> 00:40:55,399
Speaker 3: bet them to advance as well. That's what I really,

852
00:40:55,440 --> 00:40:56,160
Speaker 3: That's literally.

853
00:40:56,000 --> 00:40:58,279
Speaker 1: What I said before in.

854
00:40:58,239 --> 00:41:00,399
Speaker 3: Our future's episode, I said, wait, UNTI left first two

855
00:41:00,400 --> 00:41:03,120
Speaker 3: matches with that Menez and then you know, now we're

856
00:41:03,120 --> 00:41:05,040
Speaker 3: in a situation where you're still getting them at plus money.

857
00:41:05,080 --> 00:41:09,120
Speaker 3: So yes, fine Ord. They're obviously you know, obviously being

858
00:41:09,160 --> 00:41:10,719
Speaker 3: at home is a is a big key here. But

859
00:41:10,800 --> 00:41:13,600
Speaker 3: I mean they're they're right up there with PSV. They've

860
00:41:13,719 --> 00:41:16,239
Speaker 3: like the plus twenty expect gold differential in the area

861
00:41:16,280 --> 00:41:18,760
Speaker 3: to VSA through nine matches, like they're just hammering teams

862
00:41:18,800 --> 00:41:21,879
Speaker 3: left and right. So still a very very good team.

863
00:41:22,560 --> 00:41:28,719
Speaker 3: So both aligned on fine rd. All right, let's move

864
00:41:28,760 --> 00:41:31,520
Speaker 3: on to this.

865
00:41:31,520 --> 00:41:37,800
Speaker 1: At Letti fraud Celtic unbelievable Athletic.

866
00:41:36,800 --> 00:41:39,640
Speaker 3: Madrid a very deserved three zero win for them against

867
00:41:39,719 --> 00:41:45,920
Speaker 3: Vigo over the weekend Celtic Celtic plus two sixty Athleticum

868
00:41:45,920 --> 00:41:48,640
Speaker 3: Madrid minus one six the draw at plus to eighty.

869
00:41:49,400 --> 00:41:50,520
Speaker 2: I pass on this one.

870
00:41:50,520 --> 00:41:53,960
Speaker 3: I think the red price is right on Athleticico. Very

871
00:41:53,960 --> 00:41:56,360
Speaker 3: difficult environment they're going to go in to play against Celtic,

872
00:41:56,520 --> 00:42:00,520
Speaker 3: so I'm staying away from this one. But can you

873
00:42:00,520 --> 00:42:03,000
Speaker 3: stomach a bet on Celtic Anthony?

874
00:42:03,440 --> 00:42:05,320
Speaker 1: This is the build your courage bet of the week.

875
00:42:06,000 --> 00:42:08,160
Speaker 1: We joke about this, but like genuinely, I haven't decided

876
00:42:08,239 --> 00:42:10,240
Speaker 1: yet if I want to bet them. Everything in my

877
00:42:10,480 --> 00:42:15,239
Speaker 1: brain and my head and even my heart tells me

878
00:42:15,280 --> 00:42:18,279
Speaker 1: I should do it. My gut says that this bet

879
00:42:18,320 --> 00:42:20,799
Speaker 1: loses in hilarious fashion. And so I've had so many

880
00:42:20,840 --> 00:42:22,680
Speaker 1: of those go against me in the last two weeks

881
00:42:22,680 --> 00:42:25,719
Speaker 1: that I'm kind of contemplating the meaning of life. But

882
00:42:26,680 --> 00:42:31,600
Speaker 1: like ed Letti this weekend and most people probably didn't

883
00:42:31,640 --> 00:42:35,759
Speaker 1: watch the epic clash between Atletico Madrid and Celta Vigo

884
00:42:35,840 --> 00:42:39,640
Speaker 1: over the weekend, but let me enlighten you. The first

885
00:42:39,960 --> 00:42:43,920
Speaker 1: half of the game, first thirty minutes was total domination

886
00:42:44,000 --> 00:42:45,960
Speaker 1: from Vigo and there wasn't like huge chance, but a

887
00:42:46,040 --> 00:42:48,920
Speaker 1: huge chance. They weren't like carving them open. But the

888
00:42:48,920 --> 00:42:52,000
Speaker 1: first twenty five minutes of the match the total shot

889
00:42:52,080 --> 00:42:55,680
Speaker 1: count prior to the red card was seven to one.

890
00:42:56,440 --> 00:43:00,279
Speaker 1: They had one chance and that was it been to

891
00:43:00,320 --> 00:43:02,479
Speaker 1: Sam Well, that was it. Then there's a red card

892
00:43:02,560 --> 00:43:05,239
Speaker 1: and a pen which Grea hasmon converts, So now it's

893
00:43:05,239 --> 00:43:07,000
Speaker 1: one nail and I already know my bet is dead,

894
00:43:07,120 --> 00:43:10,840
Speaker 1: you know whatever, But just for good measure, Celta Vigo

895
00:43:10,920 --> 00:43:14,560
Speaker 1: then outshot them the remainder of the half again. So

896
00:43:14,719 --> 00:43:18,120
Speaker 1: you know, this at Letti team conceding chance and chance

897
00:43:18,440 --> 00:43:22,480
Speaker 1: treego Arson especially, Like you know, they're not a good

898
00:43:22,480 --> 00:43:25,719
Speaker 1: defensive team anymore now neither is Celtic. So that that's

899
00:43:25,760 --> 00:43:28,000
Speaker 1: where the fun comes in, right, So you know, we've

900
00:43:28,040 --> 00:43:30,480
Speaker 1: got two pretty bad defensive teams. You know, this at

901
00:43:30,520 --> 00:43:32,719
Speaker 1: Letti team, it's just it's constant and it's pain and

902
00:43:32,760 --> 00:43:35,080
Speaker 1: it's it's amazing that in a match where they played

903
00:43:35,120 --> 00:43:37,960
Speaker 1: up a man for an hour, they were still outshot

904
00:43:38,200 --> 00:43:41,239
Speaker 1: by an average Lalliga team in Celtic. I mean, we're

905
00:43:41,280 --> 00:43:43,359
Speaker 1: not talking about like you know, Bill Bao or even

906
00:43:43,400 --> 00:43:47,759
Speaker 1: like vi Real, talking about Celta Vigo. So look, I

907
00:43:47,800 --> 00:43:50,640
Speaker 1: think the numbers pretty close to right. But my heart,

908
00:43:50,719 --> 00:43:52,840
Speaker 1: my gut and everything wants me to bet Celtics, so

909
00:43:52,920 --> 00:43:54,760
Speaker 1: I got to decide if I'm gonna put that wager

910
00:43:54,800 --> 00:43:57,640
Speaker 1: in come come Wednesday. Yeah, it was just but they're

911
00:43:57,680 --> 00:43:59,800
Speaker 1: not good and and like, it's not like this is

912
00:43:59,800 --> 00:44:02,319
Speaker 1: a time thing where they've just you know, they they've

913
00:44:02,360 --> 00:44:05,719
Speaker 1: won seven of their nine matches in La Liga. But

914
00:44:05,960 --> 00:44:08,160
Speaker 1: you know, were they great against sociodod No, it was

915
00:44:08,200 --> 00:44:10,480
Speaker 1: a very even match at home. They got out played

916
00:44:10,480 --> 00:44:13,000
Speaker 1: by fire and ord like. They have not been great.

917
00:44:13,080 --> 00:44:15,320
Speaker 1: They had I'd say their best performance of the season

918
00:44:15,400 --> 00:44:17,120
Speaker 1: was when they beat Real Madrid at home and they

919
00:44:17,120 --> 00:44:19,640
Speaker 1: were very good in that game. But again, you know,

920
00:44:19,840 --> 00:44:21,799
Speaker 1: I know people know what I think about Real Madrid too,

921
00:44:21,840 --> 00:44:25,760
Speaker 1: So just this is torture chamber stuff.

922
00:44:26,080 --> 00:44:27,920
Speaker 3: So I'm gonna pass on the torture chamber. I mean,

923
00:44:27,920 --> 00:44:33,000
Speaker 3: I'm a Semoni supporter, so I'm I'm not gonna say anything.

924
00:44:33,800 --> 00:44:36,279
Speaker 1: Yeah, Sondra Tanali apparently is in big gambling debt. I

925
00:44:36,320 --> 00:44:38,000
Speaker 1: think it might have been all the Unletti futures he's

926
00:44:38,040 --> 00:44:38,959
Speaker 1: been tailing from our show.

927
00:44:39,400 --> 00:44:45,479
Speaker 3: Oh geez, maybe we'll say that the Premier League pod.

928
00:44:45,600 --> 00:44:47,799
Speaker 3: All right, we don't need to waste our time on

929
00:44:47,840 --> 00:44:50,839
Speaker 3: young boys. City whatever City will probably win through nothing.

930
00:44:50,880 --> 00:44:51,400
Speaker 2: Who cares.

931
00:44:53,920 --> 00:44:57,439
Speaker 1: Yeah, City City is still pretty good. Another sub one

932
00:44:57,719 --> 00:45:00,360
Speaker 1: x G performance for City, But I think that it's

933
00:45:00,360 --> 00:45:02,839
Speaker 1: more worth discussing on the Premier League show. I mean,

934
00:45:02,880 --> 00:45:05,520
Speaker 1: they won. How bad is it if you only create

935
00:45:05,520 --> 00:45:08,120
Speaker 1: point eight XG against Brighton at home? Is that? Like?

936
00:45:08,400 --> 00:45:11,800
Speaker 3: Is that like a dude, they're not taking any shots.

937
00:45:11,800 --> 00:45:14,840
Speaker 3: Go look at their performances against Fulham and against Forest,

938
00:45:14,960 --> 00:45:17,000
Speaker 3: Like between those two matches, I think they combined fourteen

939
00:45:17,040 --> 00:45:17,800
Speaker 3: shots total.

940
00:45:18,520 --> 00:45:19,799
Speaker 2: It's very weird what's going on.

941
00:45:20,600 --> 00:45:23,879
Speaker 3: It's just a lot of like stale possession where they

942
00:45:23,920 --> 00:45:26,920
Speaker 3: just can't like you know, you know me and my

943
00:45:26,960 --> 00:45:29,520
Speaker 3: final third to box entry conversion rate that I overuse

944
00:45:29,920 --> 00:45:31,120
Speaker 3: a lot on this podcast.

945
00:45:31,239 --> 00:45:35,279
Speaker 2: But they're dead last offensively twentieth No.

946
00:45:35,600 --> 00:45:37,719
Speaker 1: I think that's I mean, I talked about this on

947
00:45:37,760 --> 00:45:40,360
Speaker 1: another show I went on Friday. It's like that's the

948
00:45:40,440 --> 00:45:44,200
Speaker 1: Kevin de Brunna hole. But Holland scores because they turned

949
00:45:44,200 --> 00:45:45,759
Speaker 1: it over high once and hit a thirty yard or

950
00:45:45,800 --> 00:45:47,560
Speaker 1: twenty five yard to hit into the corner and they

951
00:45:47,600 --> 00:45:49,680
Speaker 1: went too on. But they weren't good.

952
00:45:49,960 --> 00:45:50,400
Speaker 2: I didn't think.

953
00:45:50,440 --> 00:45:52,200
Speaker 1: I didn't think they were impressed at all. Like Doku

954
00:45:52,280 --> 00:45:54,680
Speaker 1: versus James Milner, the fact that they didn't score eight

955
00:45:54,719 --> 00:45:57,960
Speaker 1: goals on that matchup was alarming. I mean, they got

956
00:45:58,160 --> 00:46:00,680
Speaker 1: one goal out of it on like a mishit by Alvres.

957
00:46:01,239 --> 00:46:02,920
Speaker 1: Doku could have beat him every time, and they just

958
00:46:02,960 --> 00:46:05,600
Speaker 1: weren't hammering that advantage. And then Brighton adjusts and they

959
00:46:05,600 --> 00:46:07,160
Speaker 1: got out played in the second half. Now, they got

960
00:46:07,200 --> 00:46:09,239
Speaker 1: out played up to now, but you know, we'll talk

961
00:46:09,280 --> 00:46:11,440
Speaker 1: more about them on Thursday.

962
00:46:11,719 --> 00:46:15,040
Speaker 3: Neither of us have anything on Royal Antwerp or Porto.

963
00:46:16,560 --> 00:46:21,400
Speaker 3: So the final match of Wednesday, well it's actually a

964
00:46:21,400 --> 00:46:25,040
Speaker 3: twelve forty five pm Eastern match, so Island match, Barcelona

965
00:46:25,160 --> 00:46:27,560
Speaker 3: taking on Shock Toar. I actually do have something for

966
00:46:27,680 --> 00:46:30,400
Speaker 3: this match. I like under three and a half goals

967
00:46:31,360 --> 00:46:35,759
Speaker 3: at minus one ten. Here's the situation that Barcelona is

968
00:46:35,800 --> 00:46:38,480
Speaker 3: in right now, similar to what we just said about

969
00:46:38,520 --> 00:46:43,120
Speaker 3: Manchester City. They are struggling to kind of break down

970
00:46:43,400 --> 00:46:46,680
Speaker 3: low defensive blocks. There's seventeenth and final third of box

971
00:46:46,800 --> 00:46:49,239
Speaker 3: entry conversion rate. And yes, Barcelona keeps winning a lot

972
00:46:49,280 --> 00:46:51,560
Speaker 3: of these matches, won nothing, but they are dealing with

973
00:46:51,560 --> 00:46:57,400
Speaker 3: a lot of injuries right now. Lewandowski, Deyong, Raphimya Pedrie

974
00:46:57,760 --> 00:47:00,000
Speaker 3: are all probably going to miss this match because I'll

975
00:47:00,040 --> 00:47:02,160
Speaker 3: Classico is this weekend and Barcelona is not going to

976
00:47:02,200 --> 00:47:04,879
Speaker 3: want to risk them when that sounds like they could

977
00:47:04,880 --> 00:47:07,319
Speaker 3: potentially come back if they really needed to for this match,

978
00:47:07,600 --> 00:47:10,399
Speaker 3: but they're not really going to do it. So now

979
00:47:10,440 --> 00:47:12,800
Speaker 3: you're limited in terms of what you have in attack

980
00:47:13,760 --> 00:47:15,960
Speaker 3: against the shock card team that yes, has conceded a

981
00:47:16,000 --> 00:47:19,000
Speaker 3: lot of goals to begin here in the Champions League.

982
00:47:19,120 --> 00:47:22,440
Speaker 3: They're a really weird position right now. They just fired

983
00:47:22,480 --> 00:47:25,680
Speaker 3: their manager on October sixteenth, and they're under a caretaker

984
00:47:25,719 --> 00:47:28,439
Speaker 3: manager right now. In their Ukraine a Premier League match

985
00:47:28,520 --> 00:47:30,400
Speaker 3: over the weekend, you know, they were typically a four

986
00:47:30,440 --> 00:47:32,920
Speaker 3: to three to three team. You know, love to obviously

987
00:47:32,960 --> 00:47:36,360
Speaker 3: press high and you try to cause some problems, which

988
00:47:36,480 --> 00:47:39,239
Speaker 3: you know caused some chaotic matches over the weekend. They

989
00:47:39,239 --> 00:47:41,800
Speaker 3: switched to a four to one four to one, which

990
00:47:41,880 --> 00:47:44,160
Speaker 3: leads me to believe that they were testing out a

991
00:47:44,160 --> 00:47:46,120
Speaker 3: new formation for when they went to camp new to

992
00:47:46,160 --> 00:47:49,440
Speaker 3: play a very very defensive low block, and for their

993
00:47:49,480 --> 00:47:53,040
Speaker 3: first two matches they were missing their two best defenders.

994
00:47:53,040 --> 00:47:55,880
Speaker 3: Well now they're both back and healthy and which is

995
00:47:56,000 --> 00:47:58,000
Speaker 3: huge for them going on the road here. So I

996
00:47:58,000 --> 00:48:01,320
Speaker 3: think this total is a little flated given the injury

997
00:48:01,320 --> 00:48:05,880
Speaker 3: situation that Barcelona is in, and also for Shocktar, Lasina Trior,

998
00:48:06,000 --> 00:48:09,080
Speaker 3: They're best forward, is also injured. So it's it's a

999
00:48:09,120 --> 00:48:11,279
Speaker 3: game that I could see very well Barcelona winning just

1000
00:48:11,280 --> 00:48:13,560
Speaker 3: like one nothing to nothing, whatever you might whatever it

1001
00:48:13,640 --> 00:48:17,279
Speaker 3: might be because Shocktar at this point, I mean, they

1002
00:48:17,480 --> 00:48:19,759
Speaker 3: obviously got the huge winn against Royal Antwerp. They're playing

1003
00:48:19,760 --> 00:48:21,960
Speaker 3: for the Europa League pretty much and gold Diffrenchal is

1004
00:48:21,960 --> 00:48:24,680
Speaker 3: probably gonna matter quite a bit for it. So holding

1005
00:48:24,719 --> 00:48:27,520
Speaker 3: Barcelona to a one nil two nail result at Camp

1006
00:48:27,560 --> 00:48:30,640
Speaker 3: New I think would be a massive result for them.

1007
00:48:30,880 --> 00:48:32,879
Speaker 2: So under three and a half.

1008
00:48:33,680 --> 00:48:35,200
Speaker 1: Yeah, and like you said, Bars is not going to

1009
00:48:35,280 --> 00:48:37,640
Speaker 1: risk anybody ahead of our class.

1010
00:48:37,239 --> 00:48:37,600
Speaker 2: They're not.

1011
00:48:37,920 --> 00:48:40,840
Speaker 3: They're not gonna risk anybody without Classico coming up this weekend,

1012
00:48:40,840 --> 00:48:42,200
Speaker 3: and they are alread, they've already won their first two

1013
00:48:42,239 --> 00:48:45,320
Speaker 3: matches in the group, so they're you know, they're just

1014
00:48:45,360 --> 00:48:46,960
Speaker 3: gonna try to eke out a one nil win similar

1015
00:48:47,000 --> 00:48:50,399
Speaker 3: to what they did against bill Bao on Sunday, So.

1016
00:48:50,320 --> 00:48:51,080
Speaker 2: That'll do it.

1017
00:48:51,160 --> 00:48:53,720
Speaker 3: But we're going to end out here with the Champions

1018
00:48:53,760 --> 00:48:59,320
Speaker 3: League with our best bets for the match week for

1019
00:48:59,400 --> 00:49:02,160
Speaker 3: match week three. So, Anthony, what is your favorite bet

1020
00:49:02,480 --> 00:49:04,040
Speaker 3: for this round of Champions League matches?

1021
00:49:04,760 --> 00:49:07,719
Speaker 1: Galatas or I plus one and a half minus one

1022
00:49:07,800 --> 00:49:11,080
Speaker 1: thirty five against Bayern Munich. Look, we talked about Byron

1023
00:49:11,120 --> 00:49:12,600
Speaker 1: as being the show. It's been a while since we

1024
00:49:12,640 --> 00:49:14,960
Speaker 1: discussed it, but I want to see more from this

1025
00:49:15,040 --> 00:49:16,840
Speaker 1: team to prove to me that they're actually the second

1026
00:49:16,840 --> 00:49:19,160
Speaker 1: best team, and then they're deserving of the market rating

1027
00:49:19,200 --> 00:49:20,600
Speaker 1: that they have right now. Because this is a team

1028
00:49:20,640 --> 00:49:22,959
Speaker 1: that went to Mines over the weekend and finished about

1029
00:49:23,000 --> 00:49:25,480
Speaker 1: even on shots, a team that went to Copenhagen and

1030
00:49:25,520 --> 00:49:28,560
Speaker 1: couldn't create one XG, A team that looked very inconsistent

1031
00:49:28,560 --> 00:49:31,359
Speaker 1: against Man United for large stretches of that match. We

1032
00:49:31,440 --> 00:49:34,719
Speaker 1: know how much firepower there is. Of course, they could

1033
00:49:34,719 --> 00:49:37,520
Speaker 1: go out and go to go to Galatas right go

1034
00:49:37,640 --> 00:49:41,000
Speaker 1: and blow them out, but it's difficult to waste pot.

1035
00:49:41,560 --> 00:49:44,040
Speaker 1: And I think that they're overvalued. I think that you're,

1036
00:49:44,160 --> 00:49:45,880
Speaker 1: you know, the team that we like the most relative

1037
00:49:45,880 --> 00:49:47,600
Speaker 1: to the market against the Byron team that I now

1038
00:49:47,600 --> 00:49:50,400
Speaker 1: starting to have real questions about. So Gimmy Galatasterri plus

1039
00:49:50,400 --> 00:49:52,160
Speaker 1: one and a half minus one thirty five.

1040
00:49:53,120 --> 00:49:53,879
Speaker 2: I'll go with the match.

1041
00:49:53,920 --> 00:49:56,520
Speaker 3: I just talked about Barcelona's Shaktar under three and a

1042
00:49:56,560 --> 00:50:00,360
Speaker 3: half goals at minus one twenty. Barcelona very limited in

1043
00:50:00,440 --> 00:50:03,839
Speaker 3: terms of attackers available. No Rafina, no Lewandowski, no Frank

1044
00:50:03,880 --> 00:50:07,600
Speaker 3: Deyong and no Pedri, and even if they do, even

1045
00:50:07,680 --> 00:50:09,200
Speaker 3: if they are healthy enough, they are going to be

1046
00:50:09,239 --> 00:50:12,120
Speaker 3: saved for this weekend against Elklasico. So you could see

1047
00:50:12,120 --> 00:50:15,279
Speaker 3: a very rotated squad for Barcelona that is kind of

1048
00:50:15,320 --> 00:50:17,960
Speaker 3: struggling to break down low blocks seventeenth and final third

1049
00:50:18,000 --> 00:50:20,520
Speaker 3: to box entry conversion rate. Goomi gets a shock tar

1050
00:50:20,560 --> 00:50:22,520
Speaker 3: defense that has leaked quite a few goals so far

1051
00:50:22,560 --> 00:50:25,279
Speaker 3: as this Champions League. But they were without their two

1052
00:50:25,320 --> 00:50:28,200
Speaker 3: best starting center backs for those first two matches, and

1053
00:50:28,600 --> 00:50:30,640
Speaker 3: they're in a very weird situation where they just fired

1054
00:50:30,680 --> 00:50:32,840
Speaker 3: their manager. They're under a caretaker manager and over the

1055
00:50:32,840 --> 00:50:35,000
Speaker 3: weekend in the Ukrainian Premier League they played a four

1056
00:50:35,040 --> 00:50:37,480
Speaker 3: to one, four to one and one three nothing. So

1057
00:50:37,480 --> 00:50:39,480
Speaker 3: I'm guessing they're setting up to play some type of

1058
00:50:39,800 --> 00:50:42,239
Speaker 3: very compact, low defensive blocks. So with a lot of

1059
00:50:42,239 --> 00:50:44,880
Speaker 3: second choice rotational guys for Barcelona. I think you can

1060
00:50:44,920 --> 00:50:48,520
Speaker 3: see a very slow paced stalemate type match where Barcelona

1061
00:50:48,520 --> 00:50:52,600
Speaker 3: wins maybe one or two nothing in controls a large possession,

1062
00:50:52,680 --> 00:50:55,400
Speaker 3: large portion of the possession of this match, so under

1063
00:50:55,520 --> 00:50:59,719
Speaker 3: three and a half in Barcelona and Shocktar. That'll do

1064
00:50:59,760 --> 00:51:01,160
Speaker 3: it this episode of Wonder Goal.

1065
00:51:01,239 --> 00:51:02,320
Speaker 2: Thank you all for listening.

1066
00:51:02,520 --> 00:51:05,160
Speaker 3: Michael Leeboff will be back in the host chair for

1067
00:51:05,280 --> 00:51:09,960
Speaker 3: our regular schedule Thursday morning weekend preview of a huge,

1068
00:51:10,640 --> 00:51:13,880
Speaker 3: huge weekend across Europe with a Manchester Derby and El

1069
00:51:13,960 --> 00:51:19,600
Speaker 3: Classico slotted in there. So that'll do it. For Anthony Dubundo,

1070
00:51:19,920 --> 00:51:20,399
Speaker 3: I'm VJ.

1071
00:51:20,560 --> 00:51:21,040
Speaker 2: Cunningham.

1072
00:51:21,040 --> 00:51:22,960
Speaker 3: Thank you to our sponsors from BET three sixty five

1073
00:51:23,040 --> 00:51:25,759
Speaker 3: in all of our video and audio producers on the

1074
00:51:25,800 --> 00:51:28,440
Speaker 3: back end. We'll see you all on Thursday morning. Good

1075
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Speaker 3: luck with your Champions League waitress.

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Speaker 1: This week, Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If

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Speaker 1: you or someone you care about has a gambling problem,

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00:51:46,320 --> 00:51:48,960
Speaker 1: help is available twenty four to seven at one eight

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Speaker 1: hundred Gambler