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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.

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Speaker 2: This is the Blue Big DAYBAQ podcast. Good morning, It's Thursday,

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Speaker 2: the eighth of January. I'm Caroline Hipca in London.

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Speaker 3: And I'm Stephen Caroline Brussels. Coming up today, Beijing's Donro

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Speaker 3: doctrine problem. Trump's Venezuela strategy opens a new front in

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Speaker 3: America's rivalry with China.

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Speaker 2: The UK argues that its role in seizing an oil

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Speaker 2: tanker underscores Europe's importance to US security.

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Speaker 1: Plus not such rich pickings.

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Speaker 3: Why more taxes on higher earners could backfire on the

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Speaker 3: UK government's growth plans.

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Speaker 2: Let's start with the roundup of our top stories.

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Speaker 3: Leading Chinese oil companies have asked Beijing for guidance on

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Speaker 3: how to protect their investments in Venezuela as Washington outlines

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Speaker 3: plans to control the country's crude output. Sources tell US

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Speaker 3: state owned firms have raised concerns in an effort to

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Speaker 3: align their responses with Beijing's diplomat that strategy and to

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Speaker 3: salvage existing claims. The US Energy Secretary Chris Wright says

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Speaker 3: the Trump administration wants to control all future sales of

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Speaker 3: Venezuelan oil. And hold the proceeds in US accounts. Here's

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Speaker 3: what he told Golb and Sachs conference in Miami.

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Speaker 4: We're gonna let the market, let the oil flow, sell

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Speaker 4: that market to United States refineries and too around the

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Speaker 4: world to bring better oil supplies, but have those sales

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Speaker 4: done by the US government and deposit it into accounts

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Speaker 4: controlled by the US government, and then from there those

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Speaker 4: funds can flow back into Venezuela to benefit the Venezuelan people.

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Speaker 4: But we need to have that leverage and that control

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Speaker 4: of those oil sales to drive the changes that simply

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Speaker 4: must happen in Venezuela.

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Speaker 3: Chris Right was speaking as China grapples with how best

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Speaker 3: to respond to US assertions of dominance in the Americas

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Speaker 3: and control of strategically vital assets through what's been dubbed

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Speaker 3: the don Roe doctrine.

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Speaker 2: The UK's Defense Secretary says British support for the American

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Speaker 2: operation to seize a Russian flagged oil tanker demonstrates the

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Speaker 2: importance of the Transatlantic security partnership. Britain provided naval and

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Speaker 2: surveillance support to the US military as they captured the

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Speaker 2: Marinera in the North Atlantic. UK Defense s actually, John

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Speaker 2: Heally says it shows the value of the NATO alliance.

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Speaker 5: This is a stark reminder that our world is changing.

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Speaker 5: It is less predictable and more dangerous, and this operation

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Speaker 5: and the Shadow Fleet show the global links between the

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Speaker 5: security threats faced by the UK and its allies.

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Speaker 2: Healy's comments come as British officials told Bloomberg that the

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Speaker 2: operation was well timed to show President Trump the value

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Speaker 2: of the security relationship between the US and UK. According

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Speaker 2: to the officials, it also demonstrated how Europe can work

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Speaker 2: with America to deter threats from Russia and Iran, both

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Speaker 2: of which had close links to the seized vessel.

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Speaker 3: These developments come as the US president has demanded a

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Speaker 3: five hundred billion dollar increase in annual US defense spending

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Speaker 3: to build what Trump called the Dream military. In what

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Speaker 3: appears to be a contradictory string of announcements, Donald Trump

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Speaker 3: also threatened to exclude some of the companies most likely

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Speaker 3: to benefit from the increase. The president later signed an

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Speaker 3: executive order requiring major defense contractors to end stock buybacks,

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Speaker 3: stop issuing dividends, and cap executive pay at five million

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Speaker 3: dollars a year until they invest more in factories and research.

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Speaker 3: The announcements send shares of major defense contractors, including RTX,

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Speaker 3: a maker of Patriot missiles, Tumbling, Lockheed Martin, and Northrop

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Speaker 3: Grumman were sharply lower.

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Speaker 2: US officials are rushing to step up links with Greenland

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Speaker 2: after President Trump renewed demands to take over the island.

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Speaker 2: Blimbergundo saz that the White House is considering business deals

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Speaker 2: including rare earth, minimal mining projects, and hydroelectric power. The

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Speaker 2: chairman of the Nordic Council, Lars Christian Brasque, says that

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Speaker 2: Danish government personnel have previously sought discussions with the US

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Speaker 2: on the matter.

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Speaker 6: Not many years ago. We spoke through the administration and

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Speaker 6: I think actually the President as well, and asked what

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Speaker 6: do you need and there was no amount for extra

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Speaker 6: basis at that time, so it sort of to clear

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Speaker 6: out some of the misunderstandings also that the Greenland is

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Speaker 6: surrounded by Chinese and Russian ships and the opportunitists that

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Speaker 6: are there for the US in terms of basis and

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Speaker 6: the rare earth or rare minerals.

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Speaker 2: Lars Christian Brasque was speaking there hours before President Trump

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Speaker 2: took to social media to say that Russia and China

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Speaker 2: only fear the NATO alliance because of US involvement. His

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Speaker 2: comments come days after the Danish Prime Minister Meta Frederickson

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Speaker 2: said that a US takeover of Greenland would mean the

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Speaker 2: end of NATO.

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Speaker 3: Britain's trade growth is set to undershoot the global average

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Speaker 3: over the next decade. That's according to a report from

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Speaker 3: the Boston Consulting Group, which forecasts annual trade growth of

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Speaker 3: two point three percent for the UK.

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Speaker 1: The report notes it's hard for.

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Speaker 3: Britain to meaningfully boost its trade without some form of

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Speaker 3: engagement with the EU, its closest and largest trading partner.

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Speaker 3: It comes as Prime Minister Kris Charmer said he will

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Speaker 3: pursue greater access to the EU's single market, in a

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Speaker 3: pivot from his pre election stance.

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Speaker 2: The UNEXT index has gone a year without a major IPO.

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Speaker 2: That as major markets, including Paris and Amsterdam battle the

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Speaker 2: continent's capital market stagnation. Blueberg's at A BAIO has more.

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Speaker 7: For the first time since its own listing. Urnex companies

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Speaker 7: have raised less than a billion dollars through IPOs. The

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Speaker 7: exchange's stagnant twenty twenty five performance sits in stark contrast

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Speaker 7: to a strong year in the US and Asia, but

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Speaker 7: after a year impacted by political tensions and rising competition,

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Speaker 7: including from neighbors like Stockholm, there is some optimism for

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Speaker 7: twenty twenty six. Companies including armored vehicle maker Czechoslovak Group

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Speaker 7: and Franco German tank maker Knds are said to be

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Speaker 7: weighing meaty listings in urinex markets as soon as this

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Speaker 7: month in London to what Ada, Bio, Bloomberg Radio.

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Speaker 2: Those are our top stories. Let's think about markets. US

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Speaker 2: and European stock futures are lower this morning. You also

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Speaker 2: have most of the Asia markets down, mascis Pacific in

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Speaker 2: dates dropping by eight tenths of one percent. The bright

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Speaker 2: spot remains the cosp which is clinging on to a

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Speaker 2: small tenth of one percent gain after Samsung's profits tripled

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Speaker 2: thanks to blowout AI chip demand. The dollar curtly is

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Speaker 2: slightly firmer this morning. This as we saw that major

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Speaker 2: move in US defense docks yesterday, and in terms of

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Speaker 2: the bond market's tenure, Treasury yields this morning trading at

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Speaker 2: full thirteen, down two basis points of catching a bid

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Speaker 2: today In.

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Speaker 3: A moment, we'll bring you more on Chinese concerns over

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Speaker 3: US plans to control Venezuela and oil, plus how UK

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Speaker 3: moves to tax the rich more could backfire. But another

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Speaker 3: story that we've been reading this morning, in a world

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Speaker 3: where use of weight loss drugs is becoming more common,

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Speaker 3: a study published and the BMJ has shown the patients

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Speaker 3: who stopped taking these obese drugs regained the weight almost

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Speaker 3: four times faster than people coming off of diet. And

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Speaker 3: of course this is the cliche that you know, you

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Speaker 3: go and to die, then you come off with it

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Speaker 3: all basically to undo all the good work that you

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Speaker 3: did before. But this is something that's going to impact

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Speaker 3: the I suppose decisions of people who go on these

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Speaker 3: drugs and come off them. And the findings looked at

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Speaker 3: both the newer DLP one drugs but also some of

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Speaker 3: the older ones as well, that those that are using

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Speaker 3: the likes of a Zempeg or Manjaro for example too.

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Speaker 3: And it's a study that actually pulls together thirty seven

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Speaker 3: different pieces of research involving over nine thousand participants. It's

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Speaker 3: fairly said we going to it looks the effect of it?

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Speaker 2: Well, yes, I mean one could retort that a quick

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Speaker 2: fix is just that, a quick fix, and it might

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Speaker 2: not be a long term one. I quite like that.

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Speaker 2: One of the scientists of the clinicians who was quoted

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Speaker 2: on this said, look, you wouldn't expect a jug to

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Speaker 2: continue working on a patient when they weren't taking it anymore.

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Speaker 2: So is it really a surprise. But I think it's

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Speaker 2: you know, I mean the circle of people that one sees,

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Speaker 2: you know, shrinking friends and relations, maybe acquaintances who might

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Speaker 2: be on these on GLP ones. Yeah, this is more information,

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Speaker 2: isn't it if you're a user of these products.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, and certainly even more interesting as we're seeing the

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Speaker 3: pill form and being rolled out of them too. Now,

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Speaker 3: which of course we'll open it up to lots more

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Speaker 3: people who might be interested in these sorts of drugs too.

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Speaker 3: So a great read, and we'll put a link to

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Speaker 3: in our podcast show notes for you.

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Speaker 2: Let's bring you more now on China's rising concerns about

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Speaker 2: US intervention in Venezuela. Leading Chinese oil companies have been

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Speaker 2: asking Beijing for guidance. Our chief Asia correspondent was in

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Speaker 2: Mathison joins us now for more. Wells, Good morning, What

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Speaker 2: have we learned about the concerns that these Chinese businesses

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Speaker 2: have oil companies have over the US plans to control

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Speaker 2: Venezuelan oil.

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Speaker 8: That's right, as you were saying, These Chinese or companies

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Speaker 8: state owned or companies as well. I've been asking Beijing

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Speaker 8: for some guidance on this because they want to know

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Speaker 8: the status of their holdings there and their ability to

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Speaker 8: do business there, and they obviously want to align themselves

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Speaker 8: with what Beijing is thinking in all of this and

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Speaker 8: what Beijing is going to say and do about all

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Speaker 8: of it. But given that the US is pledging to

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Speaker 8: control Venezuela's oil exports indefinitely and in entirety, there are

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Speaker 8: big questions around that. And you know, at the same time,

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Speaker 8: if the US is now going to control the sale

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Speaker 8: of oil in the global market, where does this leave again,

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Speaker 8: these Chinese companies. So there's a level of concerns about that,

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Speaker 8: and it probably reflects a broader concern in Beijing about

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Speaker 8: its investments in business in the region as a whole.

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Speaker 8: Because China has over the years become a very big

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Speaker 8: economic and business player in Latin America. It's trade and

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Speaker 8: involvement in Venezuela, if anything, has possibly shrunk and become smaller,

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Speaker 8: but in other parts of the region it's very significant.

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Speaker 8: So a lot of Chinese companies, no doubt, not just

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Speaker 8: the all majors, but companies involved in construction, auto companies

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Speaker 8: and so on, will be watching what happens very closely,

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Speaker 8: because what's happening in Venezuela is a signal from the

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Speaker 8: US about where Donald Trump sees the region the Americas

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Speaker 8: more broadly.

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Speaker 3: Does this then prompt China to do something different in

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Speaker 3: its strategy and the continent too.

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Speaker 1: If this new this.

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Speaker 3: Don Road doctrine, as it's being dubbed, to re establish

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Speaker 3: US dominance across the Western hemisphere is pushing ahead.

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Speaker 8: Well, certainly we'll be watching with interest and concern perhaps

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Speaker 8: China about this Donro doctrine and what it means. Donald

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Speaker 8: Trump saying We've got spheres of influence, and mine is

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Speaker 8: going to be the Americas. Again, just given an extent

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Speaker 8: to which China is economically involved in the region, trade,

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Speaker 8: business and investment and so on.

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Speaker 2: But at the same time, they're probably just going to

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Speaker 2: wait and watch.

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Speaker 8: For now, what's happening in Venezuela is obviously concerning for them,

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Speaker 8: but does that represent the rest of the region. I mean,

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Speaker 8: the US could go into Venezuela arguably and remove Alido,

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Speaker 8: who is a repressive dictator. But you've got a great

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Speaker 8: diversity of other kinds of countries in the region. I

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Speaker 8: mean everywhere from Peru to Brazil and Argentina and Mexico.

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Speaker 8: These are very different kinds of governments and economies. And

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Speaker 8: what exactly the US could do there is less clear

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Speaker 8: in terms of asserting itself and what can the US

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Speaker 8: offer as an alternative when it comes to trade and

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Speaker 8: business that would be appealing. So it's not necessar barely

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Speaker 8: given that they'll be able to displace China in these

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Speaker 8: places or that these countries will be ready to allow

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Speaker 8: that to happen. And it's very unclear what Donald Trump's

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Speaker 8: thinking is beyond Venezuela on it at this point.

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Speaker 2: Meanwhile, the President is also talking about a boost to

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Speaker 2: US defense spending, which surely you know raises concerns about

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Speaker 2: defense spending the two superpowers. He wants Congress to increase

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Speaker 2: the annual defense budget by fifty percent by twenty twenty seven.

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Speaker 8: Well, that's right, I mean, we'd be one of the biggest,

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Speaker 8: if not the biggest, defense spending increase in the US

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Speaker 8: that you've ever seen. So, for a start, there's got

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Speaker 8: to be questions about that number and whether it's feasible,

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Speaker 8: whether that's something that Congress would agree to, Where would

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Speaker 8: the money come from to do that, Where does it

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Speaker 8: get cut from? Also in a year where Donald Trump

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Speaker 8: is facing midterm elections, for example, and so is that

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Speaker 8: number even feasible? But obviously it reflects Donald trump desire

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Speaker 8: to beef up the military. At the same time, he's

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Speaker 8: warning big US defense contractors to behave themselves and get

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Speaker 8: in line and to produce more. So his direction of

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Speaker 8: travel on that is very clear. The question is can

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Speaker 8: the US military, you know, really beef up its capacity

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Speaker 8: in a way that China is worried about. China has

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Speaker 8: certainly spent a lot of money on defense in recent

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Speaker 8: years and in modernizing its military, particularly moving away from

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Speaker 8: the land army very much towards high tech and its

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Speaker 8: Navy and Air Force, and certainly in some aspects it's

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Speaker 8: got the jump on the US on that and Donald

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Speaker 8: Trump probably wants to catch up. So again, I think

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Speaker 8: China's probably looking at this and thinking that's a very

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Speaker 8: big number, But in reality, what are we going to

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Speaker 8: be seeing here. It's just all part of that messaging

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Speaker 8: coming from the US that Donald Trump is looking at security,

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Speaker 8: defense and his fears of influence in a much more

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Speaker 8: clearer way, perhaps than we thought he would be doing

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Speaker 8: a year ago.

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Speaker 1: Okay, Roseln Mats and our chief Asia correspond and thank you.

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Speaker 1: Stay with us. More from Bloomberg Daybreak Europe coming up

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Speaker 1: after this.

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Speaker 2: Britain's most affluent families have been hit by a sharp

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Speaker 2: downturn in their personal finances, with higher taxes and sluggish

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Speaker 2: pay threatening to stunt a crucial driver of the consumer

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Speaker 2: economy in the UK. Are UK Politics with porter James

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Speaker 2: Walcock joins us for more on this story. Good to

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Speaker 2: speak to James. Recent tax hikes have targeted the most

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Speaker 2: well off in the UK. What do we know about

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Speaker 2: how this is actually affecting their personal finances now?

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Speaker 9: Well, unsurprisingly, Caroline, if you tax people, they spend less.

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Speaker 9: But what is interesting about this piece is for the

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Speaker 9: first time Bloomberg have got data from retail economics which

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Speaker 9: shows you quite.

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Speaker 1: How far this is going.

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Speaker 9: And if you are in sort of the upper percentage

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Speaker 9: of the income demographic, you were doing very well before

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Speaker 9: the pandemic your income growth since that sort of twenty

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Speaker 9: nineteen period it was up fifty percent. That growth has

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Speaker 9: just stopped, and now that's both a growth in wages.

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Speaker 9: The you add in the twenty six billion pounds of

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Speaker 9: tax likes that are coming down the track. They're not

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Speaker 9: yet in the figures, and this great piece by Arena

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Speaker 9: and Girl sort of argues that we are going to

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Speaker 9: see issues with consumption, of which forty percent of consumption

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Speaker 9: is driven by the top twenty percent in the UK.

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Speaker 9: The UK economy is heavily dependent on consumption. The OBI

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Speaker 9: says it makes up two thirds of GDP, at which

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Speaker 9: point it is the wealth is to drive consumption, which

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Speaker 9: drives GDP, and tax risers are hitting that group. That

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Speaker 9: raises a specter for Rachel Reaves and the government. That's

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Speaker 9: their sort of high tax on the wealth. The broader

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Speaker 9: shoulder sort of policies will backfire and tack the very

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Speaker 9: growth they're hoping to drive.

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Speaker 1: This is Bloomberg Daybreak Europe.

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Speaker 3: You're a morning brief on the stories making news from

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Speaker 2: I'm Caroline Hepka and.

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Speaker 1: I'm Stephen Carol.

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Speaker 3: Join us again tomorrow morning for all the news you

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Speaker 3: need to start your day right here on Bloomberg Daybreak

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Speaker 3: Europe