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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. The single best idea.

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Speaker 1: How good was it today? Well, it was so good.

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Speaker 1: We're taking one of our conversations today and we're slamming

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Speaker 1: it in tomorrow to get to the jobs report on Friday.

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Speaker 1: This is Wednesday, and we're gonna slam Aniwog of Bloomberg

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Speaker 1: Economics into Thursday to set you up for the jobs report.

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Speaker 1: I want to take a moment here and talk about

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Speaker 1: a word I get my kids. The dogs are giving

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Speaker 1: me grief about when I say what the zeitgeist is.

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Speaker 1: The zeitgeists home is eat your dog food and stop

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Speaker 1: sitting at the dining room table trying to get fancy

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Speaker 1: pork from Leonard's. The answer is the zeitgeist matters, and

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Speaker 1: the zeitgeist in economics is always movable, always shifting. Anialog

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Speaker 1: of Bloomberg Economics shifted the zeitgeist and the last third

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Speaker 1: hours maybe forty eight hours, I'd say thirty hours where

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Speaker 1: she talks about revisions to the nonfirm payrolls number, and

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Speaker 1: you're going to see revisions that could be as high

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Speaker 1: as a million jobs over the next year and a half.

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Speaker 1: This is tangible, will save that conversation for tomorrow. Why

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Speaker 1: do we do that when you have the former vice

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Speaker 1: chairman of the FED, you move Anna wog into Thursday

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Speaker 1: Richard Clarida, there's some Columbia. Arguably he saved Columbia. Economics

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Speaker 1: Professor Clarita is a PIMCO holding court out at Newport.

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Speaker 1: Tough job, but also as a former vice chairman of

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Speaker 1: the FED, he understands at the end of the day,

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Speaker 1: forget about the dots. It's about a slowing US economy.

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Speaker 2: My own sense is that we're heading down to around

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Speaker 2: a two percent economy, with a risk that we could

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Speaker 2: overshoot in the other direction. I think it's too soon

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Speaker 2: to tell, but some of the data, including the Bloomberg Surprise,

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Speaker 2: ind it has moved into negative territory. We saw Atlanta

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Speaker 2: FED marked down from to one eight in the last

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Speaker 2: couple of weeks. Certainly, when you're at the FED, you

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Speaker 2: are looking at everything. But I would say that if

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Speaker 2: I had to prioritize, I'm focused more on the cost

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Speaker 2: side of the economy right now, in the sense that

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Speaker 2: everyone agrees that the labor market needs to adjust to

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Speaker 2: be consistent with the inflation mandate, and I would say

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Speaker 2: that the numbers there are encouraging. We've seen a big

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Speaker 2: deceleration in wage inflation. That may create some political problems

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Speaker 2: for the incumbent, But from the Fed's point of view,

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Speaker 2: it's moving wage inflation in the direction of consistent with

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Speaker 2: price to ability, unlike, for example, what we're seeing in

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Speaker 2: the year zone in the UK. So I think labor

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Speaker 2: market and the cost side of the economy is what

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Speaker 2: I be focused on. I think the demand side will

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Speaker 2: take care of itself.

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Speaker 1: Richard Clarita the former vice chairman of the Federal Service System.

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Speaker 1: He is with PIMCO. There'll be a big FED debate here.

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Speaker 1: Of course, We're just now beginning our planning for Jackson Hole.

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Speaker 1: Look for our coverage of Jackson Hole the end of August.

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Speaker 1: That will be spirit and actually could be very timely.

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Speaker 1: Doctor Wong of Bloomberg Economics makes clear the key revision

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Speaker 1: report on non farm payrolls will be two days before

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Speaker 1: Jackson poll. I'm not predicting it, but that could be

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Speaker 1: a bombshell. Lizianne Saunders darkened the door today with Charles Schwab.

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Speaker 1: With all of her experience, we learned, I mean, there's

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Speaker 1: important stuff we learned from Lizanne Saunder. She appreciates Taylor Swift,

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Speaker 1: but it's not a Taylor Swift fan. She's a rocker.

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Speaker 1: We talked about led Zeppelin and we were Nickelback free

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Speaker 1: to keep her in the studio. She would have stormed

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Speaker 1: out if I'd mentioned Nickelback. But we also talked about

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Speaker 1: the mathematics and then Newtonian physics envy a factor analysis.

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Speaker 1: You have different factors, small sectors and small cap and

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Speaker 1: all sorts of different dynamics, and one of them is

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Speaker 1: this word overused momentum. And she and I agree there's

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Speaker 1: a little too much mathewa and not just not enough

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Speaker 1: behavior of what momentum is here. Liz Enne Saunders of

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Speaker 1: Charles Schwab on momentum.

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Speaker 3: In simple terms, it just means that stocks that have

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Speaker 3: been working continue to work. But I think when people

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Speaker 3: hear that word, they often have preconceived notions of what

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Speaker 3: are momentum stocks, and it's often just tech and some

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Speaker 3: of the high flyers. But as we've seen this year,

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Speaker 3: the momentum is in areas like utilities. We wouldn't classically

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Speaker 3: think of them as momentum stocks. We think of those

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Speaker 3: classically defensive stocks, but that just happens to be the momentum.

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Speaker 1: In the shortness of single best idea. And we like

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Speaker 1: to give you two great thoughts of the show, but

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Speaker 1: we don't do enough on the data. And of course

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Speaker 1: what we've always done is to triangulate. You can triangulate

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Speaker 1: within foreign exchange look at dollar yen, look at euro yen,

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Speaker 1: look at euro dollar, just as one example. But you

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Speaker 1: can also triangulate across asset classes. And I really want

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Speaker 1: to emphasize right now that there's something profound going on.

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Speaker 1: And in the blur of the Bloomberg launchpad today, it

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Speaker 1: was a print on the inflation adjusted yield I happen

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Speaker 1: to look at. There's fourteen other flavors, but it's the

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Speaker 1: ten year real yield and it printed one point nine

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Speaker 1: nine percent. It's not for me to say if we've

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Speaker 1: broken support on certain select yields, but I would just

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Speaker 1: suggest that it is exceptionally eventful into this Friday's jobs report.

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Speaker 1: You see it as we record a lift to the Nasdaq,

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Speaker 1: which is those pig tech stocks looking at the lower

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Speaker 1: rate environment. But it'd be fascinating to see. But overwhelming

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Speaker 1: everything today was a one point nine to nine print

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Speaker 1: on the inflation adjusted ten year yield. We are an

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Speaker 1: Apple CarPlay for your commute nationwide. It's safer, it's better

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Speaker 1: every day. Bloomberg Surveillance out on YouTube, on Apple podcasts.

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Speaker 1: This is a single best idea.