Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keene. Along
Speaker 1: with Jonathan Ferrell and Lisa Brownwitz. Daily we bring you
Speaker 1: insight from the best and economics, finance, investment, and international relations.
Speaker 1: Find Bloomberg Surveillance on Apple Podcast, Suncloud, Bloomberg dot com
Speaker 1: and of course on the Bloomberg Tournament. Right now, and
Speaker 1: this is timely on the global impact of the vaccines.
Speaker 1: Can America prosper out of pandemic if the rest of
Speaker 1: the world does not. David melt Pass joins us the
Speaker 1: World Bank President. Mr melt Pass, wonderful to have you
Speaker 1: with us. Your World Bank wants a shared prosperity. I
Speaker 1: want you to explain to our fancy audience why we
Speaker 1: need the impoverished world to get beyond the vaccine and
Speaker 1: the pandemic, to get beyond the pandemic so we can
Speaker 1: prosper as well. Great question, everybody, and to you to
Speaker 1: your to your well manicured audience. Um, the the challenge
Speaker 1: is both the moral the moral issues, meaning we really
Speaker 1: want people everywhere in the world to do well, But
Speaker 1: there's a very hard economic reason as well that uh
Speaker 1: that that people will create markets of the future and
Speaker 1: they will also be the innovators, the the the UH,
Speaker 1: the really practitioners of growth. That's got to come from
Speaker 1: all over the world. So I think there's there's both
Speaker 1: the responsibility to be engaged in countries worldwide UH, and
Speaker 1: also the the the profit motive for everyone in the world.
Speaker 1: We all do better. It's a positive some game if
Speaker 1: everyone can be in the global economy in a positive
Speaker 1: way and constructive and keeping track of global public goods
Speaker 1: like climate issues. David, I have said this for years
Speaker 1: full disclosure, Mr mail Passes in my book of Eons Ago,
Speaker 1: David Mayl Pass want to make clear you own the
Speaker 1: word fast. You have always looked at the calculus of
Speaker 1: the global economy and now you do it through the
Speaker 1: prism of the World Bank. Are we recovering fast? Some
Speaker 1: of the countries are? You know, China didn't even really
Speaker 1: have a recession in twenty The US now looks to
Speaker 1: be h in in a faster recovery, which is welcome. UH.
Speaker 1: But as as we look at the rest of the
Speaker 1: at many parts of the world, the inequality is the
Speaker 1: more striking conditions. So and you can see it you
Speaker 1: I heard your the announcer UH. Prior talking about commodity
Speaker 1: prices and you were talking about oil seventy or eighty dollars.
Speaker 1: That has a differential impact on different countries. Commodity exporters
Speaker 1: are feeling the rise right now from commodity prices, and
Speaker 1: so that's good. But the countries that that use commodities
Speaker 1: that aren't commodity producers. Uh. For example, if you're a
Speaker 1: primary export is tourism, you know, the tourist destinations in
Speaker 1: the developing world, they're still feeling it very hard, and
Speaker 1: I think it's going to be a hard David, as
Speaker 1: do we believe in this reflation trade, or at least
Speaker 1: markets do. Globally, there's been a lot of money that's
Speaker 1: flown into the developing world, into emerging markets assets. Do
Speaker 1: you think the chance of a debt crisis in the
Speaker 1: developing world has basically gotten diminished to near nothing or
Speaker 1: do you think that that's still a really prominent risk.
Speaker 1: I think it's a prominent risk for a lot of
Speaker 1: the countries at the bottom, and that has to do
Speaker 1: with the difficulty of getting new investment. You know, it's
Speaker 1: not enough to get just new debt. You need to
Speaker 1: have that debt applied in the countries. Two projects that
Speaker 1: are really going to create growth. We're trying to provide
Speaker 1: the vaccine support that we can that helps the people
Speaker 1: of the country begin to put it back together again.
Speaker 1: Food insecurity is a big problem because of both the
Speaker 1: things going on on a global scale in terms of
Speaker 1: climate changes, but also because the supply change were disrupted.
Speaker 1: So all of those mean that the people at the
Speaker 1: bottom are still not are not feeling a lift, and
Speaker 1: I think they really need some new systems that will
Speaker 1: give them that kind of lift. One new system would
Speaker 1: be at least wiping out some of their debt to
Speaker 1: give them a leg up as they try to enter
Speaker 1: a new growth trajectory. There's been some talk nascent talk
Speaker 1: about linking at debt reduction to addressing climate change issues.
Speaker 1: How far along are you in those talks. We're working
Speaker 1: closely with the I m F on ways that we
Speaker 1: can uh envision the connection. It's not just climate, it's
Speaker 1: development in general. The country's need as if there if
Speaker 1: there could be debt reduction, that would that would temporarily
Speaker 1: disadvantage the creditors, but it would provide resources in the
Speaker 1: country for them to invest into healthcare, into COVID response,
Speaker 1: UH and into climate and so the rest of the
Speaker 1: world should see that there's a beneficial linkage from UH
Speaker 1: for countries where their debt is unsustainable because maybe past
Speaker 1: governments took on too much debt or the projects that
Speaker 1: they that that were being financed didn't work out. Some
Speaker 1: some of the countries have giant white elephants projects that
Speaker 1: that someone thought five years ago or ten years ago,
Speaker 1: thought it was a good project, and it doesn't work
Speaker 1: out Instill, the people in country have to pay the
Speaker 1: debt a year after year after year. So there's gotta
Speaker 1: be some way out of that for the poorest countries.
Speaker 1: Mr mel Press, I have to ask for Craig Gordon
Speaker 1: in our Washington team. The delicate question always asked when
Speaker 1: we see a change in administrations. You were appointed by
Speaker 1: President Trump to a five year term at the World Bank,
Speaker 1: I believe through two thousand twenty four. But now you
Speaker 1: have a different president. Explain the dynamic of the President
Speaker 1: of the World Bank with a new Biden administration and
Speaker 1: how you see that unfolding here in the coming months.
Speaker 1: I think pretty well. I was proposed by President Trump,
Speaker 1: but I was selected by the Board of the of
Speaker 1: the World Bank. I work for the World Bank and
Speaker 1: for the shareholders of the World Bank and the governors,
Speaker 1: which are countries around the world. So as the Biden
Speaker 1: administration comes in, they guide the relationship as the biggest
Speaker 1: shareholder in the in the World Bank. But I work
Speaker 1: for the for the Bank, and we're doing things that
Speaker 1: that the Biden administration is supportive of, I think, and
Speaker 1: I'm sure that they're very supportive of global growth, of
Speaker 1: developing countries doing better of a of recognizing the importance
Speaker 1: of climate changes in the in the formation of economic
Speaker 1: policies in countries. All of those are work synergistically and
Speaker 1: work well. And they also I think, I mean, I'm
Speaker 1: sure are very interested in the poverty reduction goals of
Speaker 1: the World Bank. That's one of the cores, and so
Speaker 1: I'm looking forward to that new relationship. David Melps, thank
Speaker 1: you so much the World Bank President this morning with
Speaker 1: the good news we've seen over the last number of weeks,
Speaker 1: and better pandemic statistics, Pinco market strategist, pretty slow manage
Speaker 1: an investment committee member, so many great to catch up.
Speaker 1: We have had faulty A hours full of central banks
Speaker 1: speak to I sound tired. What was the headline well,
Speaker 1: I think you are all just talking about. In fact,
Speaker 1: Lisa just said jobs claims are still elevated eight hundred thousand.
Speaker 1: And a key comment this week from Lyle Brainerd, who
Speaker 1: by the way, could well be the next FED chair
Speaker 1: next year. Keep that in mind, um. She spoke to
Speaker 1: the idea that even though we've seen improvement in employment,
Speaker 1: that it's not yet it does not yet fit the
Speaker 1: Fed's new definition of what constitutes maximum employment. Remember last August,
Speaker 1: the FED changed its framework to say that maximum impointment
Speaker 1: must be broad and inclusive, and so that that's a
Speaker 1: broadening of the definition. That means even if there's a
Speaker 1: recoping of the ten million additional jobs that have been
Speaker 1: lost that have not been regained, that the FED will
Speaker 1: be looking at different yardsticks to decide whether or not
Speaker 1: it should raise its policy rate. And that's an important
Speaker 1: element and wrinkle in the central bank God world, Tony,
Speaker 1: congratulations on your new book out. I want to go
Speaker 1: back to stygums one pages on the short term market
Speaker 1: to sorry miss I didn't get stay with me here, Okay,
Speaker 1: The bond market when it moves moves like in the
Speaker 1: spread market, we move what's called folks, red zone to
Speaker 1: green zone up and down quickly. We're in the middle
Speaker 1: of that right now, Anthony Krissenzi. We're we're moving rapidly
Speaker 1: on spreads. Is it a normal red zone, green zone
Speaker 1: abrupt movers or something different this time? Well, it is
Speaker 1: different than the twenty tens. The ten is the wrong
Speaker 1: analog for the current period because of the degree of
Speaker 1: experimentation that's occurring between the monetary and physical authorities. Experimentation
Speaker 1: meaning the extent to which the Central Bank is enabling
Speaker 1: the fiscal authority to drop money into the economy in
Speaker 1: massive quantities. So that's different. But Lisa mentioned the seven
Speaker 1: year auction, and that's an important concept in this, and
Speaker 1: the steepness of the curve. Bond managers love a steep
Speaker 1: yield curve. Bot investors should love it. Generally, the ten
Speaker 1: the seven year note on the services yielding one It
Speaker 1: is one percent yield, but the six year note is
Speaker 1: eight basis points. Let me give you some strange bond math.
Speaker 1: There's a twenty basis point difference. So what does this
Speaker 1: So what does the seven year become in a year
Speaker 1: a six year? So today the yield is one percent
Speaker 1: next year, then if the six years eight basis points.
Speaker 1: It'll it'll fall on yield. What what happens when yields fall,
Speaker 1: prices rise by how much? Bondmath is seven years duration
Speaker 1: times at that change in yield twenty basis points. That's
Speaker 1: one point four percentage points. So a seven year in
Speaker 1: the total return any year fields just stopped moving would
Speaker 1: be two point four percent. And so there's a cushion,
Speaker 1: is what I'm saying. Our unit of duration is thirty
Speaker 1: basis points per unit of maturity of cushion to help
Speaker 1: a bond manager, bond investor today. Now that cushion is
Speaker 1: important for the equity investor, to the credit investor, of
Speaker 1: the investor in the private markets if they are thinking
Speaker 1: about bonds and they're worried about the move, Uh, that
Speaker 1: that's a bit of insurance. It's it's it's it's about
Speaker 1: It's similar to saying that you buy a seven year
Speaker 1: today one percent. That's not quite attractive. But I mentioned
Speaker 1: the total return idea. It is still has diversifying characteristics
Speaker 1: that enable an investor to take risk in the equity market,
Speaker 1: in the credit market, in private assets, and so bonds
Speaker 1: still have a place in a sixty forty split between
Speaker 1: bonds and stocks contexts. We think there's still hedge value,
Speaker 1: so from that act is still important. Steepness is important
Speaker 1: in terms of what's happened Tony. I gotta say, it
Speaker 1: does show you, though, where we are the cycle that
Speaker 1: we're talking about, bond math and such granularity to eke
Speaker 1: out at two percent two point three percent return based
Speaker 1: on where yields are, so it does give you a
Speaker 1: sense of just where we are in the low interest
Speaker 1: rate environment. I'm wondering on a broader level, though, this
Speaker 1: rise and interest rates has really come up from the
Speaker 1: rise in real yields. That's basically not the inflation expectations.
Speaker 1: And I'm not sure what to make of this. I mean,
Speaker 1: we're not seeing inflation expectations go up in tandem with yields.
Speaker 1: What's the message that's importantly said? In fact, I wrote
Speaker 1: myself a note top. One of the top things I
Speaker 1: wrote was real real yields. Good handwriting. You picked up.
Speaker 1: You picked up on an important point. Um. The important
Speaker 1: thing that's happening is that the rise in real interest
Speaker 1: rates is not affecting the stock market. It's not affecting
Speaker 1: the credit markets, it's not affecting markets more broadly financial
Speaker 1: conditions are still loose. It's another way of saying that
Speaker 1: the pain threshold is been reached, which is to say
Speaker 1: that yields then could go higher because rising real yields,
Speaker 1: higher yields tend to be act as a automatic stabilizer
Speaker 1: self stabilizing UH mechanism in the sense that as yields rise,
Speaker 1: it causes equities to fall and then yield stop rising.
Speaker 1: And so the fact that real yields are having no
Speaker 1: impact is important. But so you want to watch and
Speaker 1: see where it is that the rising real yields starts
Speaker 1: to influence other assets, because that's probably the point where
Speaker 1: the rising yields becomes self stabilizing, and it's not there.
Speaker 1: Might be in the high one percent range, close at
Speaker 1: a two percent for all we know. So long as
Speaker 1: the equity investor, the credit investor thinks two percent is it.
Speaker 1: Tony always grid to catch up, So appreciate it's not
Speaker 1: great to see you. Thank you. Pimco Mark his strategy's
Speaker 1: portfolio manager and investment Committee member Francis Donald manual Life.
Speaker 1: She's really quite good and adapting and adjusting to the
Speaker 1: changing linkages of market with economics. Francis do you change
Speaker 1: your economics because of the markets, or to the markets
Speaker 1: change because of the economics. Uh, well, they're not really
Speaker 1: very closely tied together since COVID occurred. But we are
Speaker 1: at the stage where if we start to see tightening
Speaker 1: of financial conditions, it will matter to the economic outlook.
Speaker 1: And this is what central bankers are watching. I watched
Speaker 1: every minute of Powell speak in the last couple of days.
Speaker 1: I learned nothing new, and yet overnight a huge amount
Speaker 1: of information from a lot of central bankers who are
Speaker 1: clearly worried about their economy because of the financial condition.
Speaker 1: That includes Australia who tried to expand purchases and saw
Speaker 1: yields rise pretty aggressively in response, and includes the ECB
Speaker 1: coming out and saying we're uncomfortable with this. It includes
Speaker 1: the Bank of Canada, with two speeches this week trying
Speaker 1: to imply that they're more nervous than the yield market suggests.
Speaker 1: These are all central bankers who worry that the financial
Speaker 1: commissions are now hurting the economy. Well said, now I
Speaker 1: know you're focused on the real yield. Friday's Folks one PM,
Speaker 1: a two hour special this week with John Pharaoll Francis,
Speaker 1: I want you to focus on the trip point that
Speaker 1: you're watching. Is it euro Is it the real tenuere
Speaker 1: yield in the US? Is this something I don't know? Yeah,
Speaker 1: I'm watching both real yields and the term premium because
Speaker 1: as much analysis as we do, that's when you hit
Speaker 1: the circuit breaker on equities. We have a little bit
Speaker 1: of ways to go here. You could see real yields
Speaker 1: rise thirty forty basis points more, but before they become
Speaker 1: very problematic. But I think Powell himself, who is you know,
Speaker 1: appearing as those very comfortable, is going to get a
Speaker 1: lot more nervous as those real yields start to go.
Speaker 1: Real yields that are this negative with the economic outlook
Speaker 1: that we have are unsustainable. They have to rise. The
Speaker 1: hope is that they do it very smoothly and not
Speaker 1: too aggressively. In the last couple of days on a
Speaker 1: little bit more nervous about that. Talking about being nervous
Speaker 1: and Francis, you do a great reality check. What are
Speaker 1: you seeing in terms of labor market expand our lack thereof,
Speaker 1: and how consistent that is with the optimism we're seeing
Speaker 1: in markets. The biggest challenge of twenty was just acknowledging
Speaker 1: that we could see these really severe job losses and
Speaker 1: they wouldn't translate to necessarily a huge economic shock because
Speaker 1: those we've lost their job were so called lower spenders. Right.
Speaker 1: But now as we head into one, we are seeing
Speaker 1: the employment numbers already lad jobless claims should be doing
Speaker 1: substantially better than they are now. But it's not an
Speaker 1: equity trade. It might be a rates trade, because even
Speaker 1: though we see almost ten million Americans unemployed, they're spending
Speaker 1: is not feeding through to GDP and retail sales as
Speaker 1: much as those that are still employed. Now, what I
Speaker 1: think the mistake is is to ignore that entirely and
Speaker 1: think the Fed doesn't care. The Fed cares deeply. This
Speaker 1: market does not believe the Fed. When the Fed says
Speaker 1: it won't be hiking rates until the employment side of
Speaker 1: the mandate is what the market has to listen to
Speaker 1: more or else they're going to get that wrong. Well, Francis,
Speaker 1: there's one thing about raising rate, there's another thing about
Speaker 1: expanding the purchases into longer duration assets, and that seems
Speaker 1: to be off the table or people aren't really talking
Speaker 1: about it so much. When does that come back on
Speaker 1: the table or is that off the table for the FED?
Speaker 1: I don't think it's off the table. This FED is
Speaker 1: going to have to do something to anchor that front
Speaker 1: and if it starts to rise, just like all these
Speaker 1: global central banks are trying to contain the moving yield,
Speaker 1: it's not gonna be enough to just talk down yields
Speaker 1: from these levels. Powell was extraordinarily devish in the last
Speaker 1: few days. It did nothing for him. I suspect we're
Speaker 1: going to hear a little bit more about wheeld curve
Speaker 1: control at the front end. We might hear about extending WHAM.
Speaker 1: These are issues that are going to come back to
Speaker 1: the frame. I used to think back in December that
Speaker 1: extending the weighted average maturity of purchases was absolutely on
Speaker 1: the table. It seems they wanted to save it for
Speaker 1: a situation like this. That might have been the right move. Franks,
Speaker 1: As you mentioned the labor market, let's talk about the
Speaker 1: word you hear a little bit more recently is employment
Speaker 1: and not unemployment. Can you walk me through the emphasis
Speaker 1: shift there, particularly of the last several years for the
Speaker 1: FED and what that mats is. YEA, that's right. When
Speaker 1: we do our monthly chart book. We used to just
Speaker 1: have the unemployment rate. We've now expanded into a range
Speaker 1: of different members, things like employment to population, labor force
Speaker 1: participation rates in the United States have dropped very precipitously
Speaker 1: and more than we've seen in other countries. This is
Speaker 1: problematic for the Federal Reserve, and they've been very clear
Speaker 1: they're expanding the way that they look at the employment market,
Speaker 1: and we as market players, will have to do that
Speaker 1: as well, or else we're not going to see what
Speaker 1: they see, which is the adjusted employment rate for all
Speaker 1: of these underlying factors is closer to ten percent. It
Speaker 1: doesn't look as good as we see on our Bloomberg
Speaker 1: screens when that non farm heralds comes out. This is
Speaker 1: another reason why, even though we could see an earlier
Speaker 1: taper than perhaps some expect, the Fed is not going
Speaker 1: to raise rates until it s these material improvement there
Speaker 1: and these underlying issues are not going to correct in
Speaker 1: one It's going to take a couple of years to
Speaker 1: help us redefine success fronts is what we should be
Speaker 1: focused on. Well, I can only define what the Fed
Speaker 1: tells us it's watching. That's what I have to do,
Speaker 1: and essentially what we're looking for are is a material
Speaker 1: soaking up of that labor force participation rate, getting it
Speaker 1: much higher, seeing a little bit of a closure of
Speaker 1: those racial and income disparities. This appears to be a
Speaker 1: key focus for the Federal Reserve. It doesn't appears that
Speaker 1: the market believes that this is a key focus. It
Speaker 1: doesn't appear that the market believes in average inflation targeting.
Speaker 1: They're pricing in a rate hype that is too early
Speaker 1: basically what the Fed is telling us. So either the
Speaker 1: feed will get swept up and higher inflation, or they're
Speaker 1: gonna stick to what they're told us, in which case
Speaker 1: they're not hiking. For instance, this has been hugely, hugely
Speaker 1: valuable and to me, the heart of the matters. Whatever
Speaker 1: your number is you've got in your head for Q
Speaker 1: two g d P, there's a mystery to how that
Speaker 1: sustains to Q three Q four. What is the probability
Speaker 1: or waiting that we underestimate better GDP growth Q three
Speaker 1: Q four of this year. So I suspect that we're
Speaker 1: going to see Q one and Q two were much
Speaker 1: better than most expected degree that price in Now you know,
Speaker 1: we expected that the soft patch of being Q one,
Speaker 1: but actually it looks like it was November, December, January.
Speaker 1: Q one, Q two going to be very strong. Where
Speaker 1: I think the mistake might be is yes, data will
Speaker 1: be better in Q three and Q four, but guess
Speaker 1: what the reopening trade is priced. We know we're going
Speaker 1: to have an aggressive reopening. There's so much more scope
Speaker 1: for downside surprises in the second half of the year.
Speaker 1: And this is what really worries me. I tell my team,
Speaker 1: don't come in and tell me that the vaccines are
Speaker 1: doing better in virus casecouncer down We know that I
Speaker 1: need the next big catalysts, and when I think about
Speaker 1: the next big catalysts, it's a little bit easier for
Speaker 1: me to sound find downsides and upsides based on what
Speaker 1: we already know, on what Francis, thank you come at
Speaker 1: Francis on every day, Francis Donald expend your life investment Management,
Speaker 1: chief Economist and head of macro economic strategy. Francis, thank
Speaker 1: you without question our interview of the month, the quarter,
Speaker 1: even the year of your optimism of this pandemic ending.
Speaker 1: Juli Edelstein has a wonderful history with his Israel. He
Speaker 1: is Minister of Health, but that barely defines his symbolism
Speaker 1: is one of the last refuse Neis to leave Russia
Speaker 1: in his politics of his Israel were thrilled that the
Speaker 1: Minister of Health could join us today. Minister Edelstein, thank
Speaker 1: you so much for joining. Thank you for telling us
Speaker 1: about the success of Israel. How did you do it?
Speaker 1: How did you succeed at this vaccination program? Well, thank
Speaker 1: you for having me or I'm really proud to say
Speaker 1: that the as we speak, we are crossing the line
Speaker 1: of fifty of the general Israeli population getting at least
Speaker 1: the first job. I think that the main reason was
Speaker 1: to start negotiating early, understanding that we are a very
Speaker 1: small market. The moment companies will actually have the vaccine.
Speaker 1: They weren't even looking now at direction, so we started early.
Speaker 1: The Prime Minister, I do have to say, was actively
Speaker 1: involved in crucial stages in trying to negotiate the best
Speaker 1: dates possible, and then our medical teams are HMOs, came
Speaker 1: into action in an incredible way. The results are that
Speaker 1: in the two months we reached, as I've said, about
Speaker 1: fifty of the general is Early population. And we have
Speaker 1: to keep in mind that right now we don't have
Speaker 1: the permission from Fiser to vaccinate kids under the age
Speaker 1: of sixteen. So I think it's it is a very
Speaker 1: very impressive result. So, Julie, what is life back to
Speaker 1: normal in Israel when our flights opened up to the
Speaker 1: international audience. Well, that's the question I think I'm asked
Speaker 1: two hundred times a day by my fellow Israelis. So
Speaker 1: if it's so successful, why don't we go back to normal?
Speaker 1: And then we all have to we all have to
Speaker 1: understand that we still have a long way to go.
Speaker 1: Right now, we are cautially open, cautious the opening the
Speaker 1: Israeli economy and social life, cultural life after suffering a
Speaker 1: very serious attack of the coronavirus just during last month.
Speaker 1: And the what enables us to open certain areas that
Speaker 1: we couldn't even dream about opening, like theaters or fitness centers,
Speaker 1: is the what we call the green pass, which is
Speaker 1: a certain documents certificate confirming that the person that has
Speaker 1: either been vaccinated or unfortunately suffered from the disease and
Speaker 1: recovered from the disease. So all these people we're talking
Speaker 1: at this stage about three million people in Israel can
Speaker 1: use all these facilities safely. And we are continuing the vaccination.
Speaker 1: We are hoping to reach the situation where as you said,
Speaker 1: will be close to normal life the way we used
Speaker 1: to know. Yeah, one of the hardest topics I know
Speaker 1: among friends and family is whether people will go back
Speaker 1: to the same behaviors when the pandemic does lift, or
Speaker 1: there will be ingrained in some of the distancing and
Speaker 1: other types of habits that we've established. Have you any
Speaker 1: surprises up until this point, as you've vaccinated fifty of
Speaker 1: your population, Well, the surprise, first of all, there's the
Speaker 1: psychological aspect that we just started talking about. Definitely, there's
Speaker 1: this kind of a sigh of relief that comes a
Speaker 1: little bit, I would say prematurely. People don't understand why
Speaker 1: if they've already been vaccinated, they still have to wear masks,
Speaker 1: so they still have to keep social distancing, with which
Speaker 1: in a country like Israel is very difficult. You know,
Speaker 1: we are warm, we want to embrace, we want to
Speaker 1: get close to each other, and and so the psychological
Speaker 1: aspect is not easy. But there is also there's also
Speaker 1: I think in terms of the it's not a surprise,
Speaker 1: it's it's a fact. There is something that we have
Speaker 1: to keep in mind. The vaccine is very effective we
Speaker 1: just had the research that shows the effectiveness the vaccine.
Speaker 1: But if we are talking about let's say a hundred people,
Speaker 1: all of them vaccinated in a certain event, out of them,
Speaker 1: five of five or six are surely not reacting to
Speaker 1: the vaccines. So that danger is always there, and that's
Speaker 1: what we're trying to explain to people. Let's go back
Speaker 1: to normal, but very cautions. Mr Earlstone. Your your stature
Speaker 1: within Israeli politics and your your history with Israeli politics
Speaker 1: forces the diplomatic question. There is a transition in Washington
Speaker 1: from Trump to Biden. What does Israel need or expect
Speaker 1: from President Biden. Well, I think that we have all
Speaker 1: the reasons to believe that President Biden will keep the
Speaker 1: tradition of different American administrations, Republican and Democratic, that they
Speaker 1: were good friends of Israel. We sometimes had our nuances
Speaker 1: and different opinions and certain subjects, but I did have
Speaker 1: the personal pleasure of think President Biden, and in my
Speaker 1: previous capacity as the Speaker of the Knesset, and he's
Speaker 1: as Vice President of the United States, he is a
Speaker 1: good friend. He is knowledgeable about Israel, and I don't
Speaker 1: have any reasons to to to be worried. I think
Speaker 1: that the we we will have to continue working with
Speaker 1: the American administration on different issues, and it's our best interest.
Speaker 1: And you know what I'll dare say, it's also an
Speaker 1: American minister. Congratulations on Israel's leadership in this pandemic, Julie Elstein,
Speaker 1: Israel's Minister of Health, and much more of that and
Speaker 1: domestic Israel politics. This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Thanks
Speaker 1: for listening. Join us live weekdays from seven to ten
Speaker 1: AMI Eastern on Bloomberg Radio and on Bloomberg Television each
Speaker 1: day from six to nine am for insight from the
Speaker 1: best in economics, finance, investment, and international relations. And subscribe
Speaker 1: to the Surveillance podcast on Apple podcast A, SoundCloud, Bloomberg
Speaker 1: dot com, and of course on the terminal. I'm Tom
Speaker 1: keene In. This is Bloomberg m