WEBVTT - U.S JOLTS, India Elections 0:00:02.960 --> 0:00:08.680 Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. 0:00:09.960 --> 0:00:13.840 You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch us live 0:00:13.920 --> 0:00:17.040 weekdays at ten am Eastern on Apple Cardplay and Android 0:00:17.040 --> 0:00:20.120 Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on demand wherever 0:00:20.200 --> 0:00:24.560 you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube. 0:00:25.000 --> 0:00:27.120 They also want to get back to the data as well, 0:00:27.200 --> 0:00:30.240 and that's Jolts number coming in a little lighter than estimated. Also, 0:00:30.600 --> 0:00:33.280 looking at the two year yield over the last five days, 0:00:33.320 --> 0:00:36.080 it's had a twenty three basis point move to the downside, 0:00:36.120 --> 0:00:37.680 and there's been a lot of money coming into the 0:00:37.680 --> 0:00:40.400 bond market. Is it short covering? Is it true buying? 0:00:40.479 --> 0:00:42.880 Is it really looking for a cut from the Fed? 0:00:42.960 --> 0:00:44.840 You know the person to ask for this, right, bloom 0:00:45.520 --> 0:00:46.640 It's not our Jersey. 0:00:46.400 --> 0:00:50.600 Bloomberg Intelligence TuS indust rate strategist standing by first job. 0:00:50.760 --> 0:00:51.000 Ira. 0:00:51.159 --> 0:00:52.800 Let me know what you think about the Jolts number 0:00:52.880 --> 0:00:55.200 so coming in a little lighter but nothing terrible. 0:00:55.800 --> 0:00:56.880 What's your reaction to it? 0:00:57.880 --> 0:01:00.600 Yeah, I don't think that you still have eight million 0:01:00.680 --> 0:01:03.840 job openings, right, So it's not like the it's completely 0:01:03.880 --> 0:01:07.000 fallen off a cliff, but we continue to see this 0:01:07.160 --> 0:01:11.080 modest pullback in the number of job openings, and you know, 0:01:11.120 --> 0:01:12.600 I was I was just trying to go through some 0:01:12.640 --> 0:01:15.200 of the data looking at things like quits rates and 0:01:15.200 --> 0:01:17.200 and the like, because I think that's the more interesting 0:01:17.560 --> 0:01:21.640 nuanced data that's comes with the joult report. We also 0:01:21.720 --> 0:01:23.199 have to remember it's a little bit it's a little 0:01:23.200 --> 0:01:25.880 bit dated compared to some of the more high frequency 0:01:26.360 --> 0:01:28.280 data that we get that's going to start being from 0:01:28.319 --> 0:01:30.840 May that that we start that we've already started to 0:01:30.840 --> 0:01:33.720 get with the ISM data yesterday. So this Joltz data, 0:01:33.720 --> 0:01:37.200 I think is interesting for trends looking at things like 0:01:37.319 --> 0:01:41.080 job leavers and and if job leavers are getting more 0:01:41.480 --> 0:01:44.560 higher wages when they leave, and and and the like. 0:01:44.640 --> 0:01:46.440 So you know, I need to dig into the data 0:01:46.440 --> 0:01:49.840 a little bit more. The dourables numbers were also kind 0:01:49.840 --> 0:01:54.200 of important because the durable goods orders had slipped in 0:01:54.240 --> 0:01:56.200 the second half of last year, and now they seem 0:01:56.240 --> 0:01:59.320 to be at a reasonably steady state now. So that's 0:01:59.440 --> 0:02:01.840 not a it's not showing that the economy is really 0:02:01.880 --> 0:02:04.320 falling off a cliff by any stretch, but maybe things 0:02:04.320 --> 0:02:05.360 are slung just a little. 0:02:07.720 --> 0:02:10.480 So I again, as Alex is pointing out, we've had 0:02:10.480 --> 0:02:13.040 a pullback, a noticeable pullback in rates here. I was 0:02:13.040 --> 0:02:15.320 looking at the ten year four point three four percent here, 0:02:15.680 --> 0:02:18.320 although the mortgage rate is still sitting stubbornly just above 0:02:18.400 --> 0:02:21.920 seven percent. Is this a technical move in the marketplace, Ira, 0:02:22.040 --> 0:02:25.480 or is this some fundamentals some folks kind of really 0:02:25.520 --> 0:02:27.079 putting some positions on one or the other. 0:02:27.680 --> 0:02:30.600 Yeah, people are definitely short covering a little bit, as 0:02:30.600 --> 0:02:33.600 well as maybe adding a little bit of duration risk here. 0:02:34.120 --> 0:02:38.560 You mentioned, Paul the twenty ishpass point rally in the 0:02:39.560 --> 0:02:41.799 in the two year note, and I think that s 0:02:41.840 --> 0:02:44.520 endemic of the idea that you know, we had basically 0:02:44.520 --> 0:02:46.600 priced out almost every cut this year, and we're now 0:02:46.639 --> 0:02:49.600 pricing in maybe the chance of a cut again, especially 0:02:49.600 --> 0:02:54.280 after yesterday's ism. Manufacturing numbers and the new orders numbers 0:02:54.320 --> 0:02:57.520 really slipped hard, and that has historically been a pretty 0:02:57.560 --> 0:03:00.600 decent indicator of where the economy's head it. So the 0:03:00.600 --> 0:03:03.400 market is getting in front of what it perceives, maybe 0:03:03.520 --> 0:03:06.400 as a deeper slow down than they had been expecting 0:03:06.680 --> 0:03:09.480 prior to seeing some of that data. You look at 0:03:09.520 --> 0:03:11.919 the tenure Yale and we're still we're at the bottom 0:03:12.040 --> 0:03:14.560 end of what's been a bit of a range talking 0:03:14.600 --> 0:03:17.679 about broadly speaking, four point three percent to maybe four 0:03:17.680 --> 0:03:20.799 point five four point six percent, And now that we're 0:03:20.880 --> 0:03:22.920 kind of at the lower end of that range, I 0:03:22.919 --> 0:03:25.679 suspect that you'll start to see the momentum slip. But 0:03:26.040 --> 0:03:29.240 but four point three percent is a pretty important technical level. 0:03:29.280 --> 0:03:31.680 We break below that, and we could wind up testing 0:03:31.680 --> 0:03:35.880 a low four percent kind of area once we do so, 0:03:36.160 --> 0:03:38.680 and it'll be interesting to see how many people have 0:03:39.160 --> 0:03:43.080 kind of stop losses there in terms of you know, 0:03:43.120 --> 0:03:45.680 once we break below that, the shorts might get really 0:03:46.160 --> 0:03:49.160 really nervous and wind up covering very dramatically, and you 0:03:49.200 --> 0:03:52.600 can often see pretty big moves on once that sorts 0:03:52.600 --> 0:03:53.000 of pickup. 0:03:53.000 --> 0:03:56.680 Steve, Well, yeah, that's what I was going to ask, 0:03:56.720 --> 0:03:58.840 because headed into jobs Friday. 0:03:58.960 --> 0:03:59.640 It's positioning. 0:04:00.440 --> 0:04:02.800 Is there one side or another in terms of too 0:04:02.840 --> 0:04:04.160 many longs, too many shorts? 0:04:05.760 --> 0:04:07.600 I don't think that there's too many at the moment. 0:04:08.200 --> 0:04:10.839 You know, the positioning data in treasuries is a little 0:04:10.880 --> 0:04:12.960 bit hard to come by because it's a matter of 0:04:13.840 --> 0:04:16.360 a matter of who actually owns it and aren't those hands, 0:04:16.920 --> 0:04:19.440 you know, sticky or not? And what you do see 0:04:19.440 --> 0:04:21.720 you look at things like the j p. Morgan Treasury 0:04:21.720 --> 0:04:24.680 Sentiment survey that they do with some of their customers, 0:04:24.720 --> 0:04:28.359 and that shows that that that investors are a little 0:04:28.360 --> 0:04:30.680 bit long, but not very long. You look at some 0:04:30.760 --> 0:04:33.760 futures positioning and certainly people have been lightening up their 0:04:33.800 --> 0:04:38.080 shorts in with using treasury futures. So all of those 0:04:38.080 --> 0:04:41.279 things really I think lead me to believe that we're 0:04:41.320 --> 0:04:44.520 probably not over our skis one way or the other. 0:04:44.960 --> 0:04:47.279 Unlike when we were at four point seven percent on 0:04:47.320 --> 0:04:49.080 the ten year yield, when a lot of people were 0:04:49.120 --> 0:04:51.039 really short and it seemed like, you know, if you 0:04:51.080 --> 0:04:52.640 got any pullback, it was going to wind up being 0:04:52.640 --> 0:04:56.640 pretty dramatic. So but but nonetheless, I think people are 0:04:56.680 --> 0:04:59.719 still a little bit skittish. People are still uncertain, and 0:04:59.760 --> 0:05:03.880 the the fact that people you know, aren't particularly in 0:05:03.920 --> 0:05:06.719 one risk or the other, then putting on that risk 0:05:06.720 --> 0:05:09.600 could wind up moving the market pretty dramatically. Because liquidity 0:05:09.760 --> 0:05:12.000 just isn't what it used to be in the treasury market. 0:05:12.520 --> 0:05:14.520 You could still see, you know, ten to fifteen basis 0:05:14.520 --> 0:05:17.880 point moves on things that you wouldn't expect there to 0:05:17.920 --> 0:05:22.080 be as dramatic of a movement. Yesterday's the Ism report 0:05:22.120 --> 0:05:23.839 as a case, in point, you know, a nine basis 0:05:23.839 --> 0:05:27.400 point movement in ten year treasuries on guess a bad report, 0:05:27.440 --> 0:05:29.960 but it wasn't like insanely bad by any stretch of 0:05:29.960 --> 0:05:30.560 the imagination. 0:05:32.720 --> 0:05:36.960 All right, Ira, next Wednesday, Fed Day, what are the 0:05:37.000 --> 0:05:37.719 smart people like you? 0:05:37.760 --> 0:05:39.400 What are you going to be listening for? 0:05:40.800 --> 0:05:44.120 Well, certainly you know we get Friday's payrolls report first, Paul, 0:05:44.160 --> 0:05:47.320 But yeah, next next week, it's really going to be 0:05:47.440 --> 0:05:50.560 what is what is the propensity? And has anything change 0:05:50.640 --> 0:05:54.000 from the last meeting in terms of they're being on 0:05:54.080 --> 0:05:58.760 hold consensus, So we suspect that their base case is 0:05:58.800 --> 0:06:00.839 going to be where holding rates where they are until 0:06:00.839 --> 0:06:03.600 it's clear that the economy is falling out of bed 0:06:03.760 --> 0:06:09.000 or inflation has is healthily going toward their target of 0:06:09.080 --> 0:06:12.760 two percent. And you know that that ladder on the inflation, 0:06:12.920 --> 0:06:15.159 it doesn't seem likely that you're going to get a 0:06:15.200 --> 0:06:18.640 significant downtick and inflation over the next couple of months. 0:06:18.680 --> 0:06:21.479 So you know, quite frankly, if if they don't cut 0:06:21.480 --> 0:06:23.720 in July, I doubt that the Fed will make its 0:06:23.760 --> 0:06:27.599 first cut in September for a couple of reasons. The 0:06:27.640 --> 0:06:29.600 election certainly is part of that. In the back of 0:06:29.640 --> 0:06:31.960 their minds. They won't never admit that, but I suspect 0:06:32.000 --> 0:06:34.719 that it is. But but if the data is not 0:06:34.800 --> 0:06:38.479 that bad from their standpoint, look, waiting six weeks, you know, 0:06:38.560 --> 0:06:42.160 cutting in November, you know that's that That's probably what 0:06:42.200 --> 0:06:45.520 we're going to be listening for, is what's there? What's 0:06:45.560 --> 0:06:46.200 their triggers? 0:06:46.279 --> 0:06:46.440 Right? 0:06:46.520 --> 0:06:50.080 And and you've heard some speakers talk a little bit 0:06:50.080 --> 0:06:53.200 differently than what Jay Powell said in early May, like 0:06:53.320 --> 0:06:56.560 talking about the potential for hikes if inflation were to reaccelerate. 0:06:57.120 --> 0:06:59.480 So it would be interesting to hear Jay Powell in 0:06:59.520 --> 0:07:02.800 the Prescot difference if he actually says something about that, 0:07:02.839 --> 0:07:05.240 because you refuse to do that in May. And if 0:07:05.240 --> 0:07:06.919 he comes out and says, yeah, we're a little bit 0:07:06.960 --> 0:07:09.680 more symmetric. Certainly if inflation goes up, we'll we'll have 0:07:09.720 --> 0:07:13.120 to hike more. He was given every opportunity to May 0:07:13.200 --> 0:07:14.239 to say that and he just didn't. 0:07:17.040 --> 0:07:20.440 All Right, last question here for us Ayra. You mentioned 0:07:20.840 --> 0:07:22.920 what are the Central Bank triggers? And I'm wondering if 0:07:22.960 --> 0:07:24.120 the spotlight it puts on the. 0:07:24.080 --> 0:07:25.320 ECB on Thursday. 0:07:25.360 --> 0:07:28.560 It feels like the June cut has been widely telegraphed 0:07:28.840 --> 0:07:31.760 and I'm wondering how you see those differentials really playing out. 0:07:33.720 --> 0:07:38.160 Yeah, So if the ECB doesn't cut as as is anticipated, 0:07:38.280 --> 0:07:40.560 then that then I think you can wind up seeing 0:07:40.600 --> 0:07:43.800 some pretty dramatic market action. You probably see front end 0:07:44.280 --> 0:07:46.600 yields go up a little bit globally, not only in 0:07:46.640 --> 0:07:50.120 Europe but also here in the US. The global rates 0:07:50.160 --> 0:07:55.200 markets have been reasonably correlated, although the ECB, the europe 0:07:55.600 --> 0:07:59.000 boon market, and German yields have diverged a little bit 0:07:59.000 --> 0:08:01.440 from the US. It really comes down to I think 0:08:01.440 --> 0:08:03.360 that the big moves that you'll probably see if something 0:08:03.360 --> 0:08:05.120 like that happens, will be in Fax. And I do 0:08:05.200 --> 0:08:09.440 think that the euro could move pretty dramatically and it 0:08:09.520 --> 0:08:13.040 may be strengthen quite a lot if the if the 0:08:13.320 --> 0:08:15.760 the ECB doesn't cut interest rates. 0:08:17.440 --> 0:08:19.360 All right, Irack, thank you so much for We appreciate that. 0:08:19.440 --> 0:08:22.320 Ira Jersey, interest rate strategist for Bloomberg Intelligence. 0:08:23.760 --> 0:08:27.640 You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence podcast. Catch us live 0:08:27.720 --> 0:08:31.240 weekdays at ten am Eastern on applecar Play and Android 0:08:31.280 --> 0:08:34.040 Auto with the Bloomberg Business aff You can also listen 0:08:34.160 --> 0:08:37.240 live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station. 0:08:37.640 --> 0:08:40.400 Just say Alexa Play Bloomberg eleven thirty. 0:08:42.360 --> 0:08:45.120 The other big story we're keeping our eye on is 0:08:45.200 --> 0:08:48.480 India's election. The stock market is completely plummeted here, racing 0:08:48.520 --> 0:08:51.199 about three hundred and eighty six billion dollars in market value. 0:08:51.720 --> 0:08:54.240 The tally signal that Prime Minister in Norandom Mode's ruling 0:08:54.280 --> 0:08:57.240 party was struggling to win a majority of seats, and 0:08:57.280 --> 0:08:58.559 that was very much a surprise. 0:08:58.600 --> 0:09:00.959 And Neranda Mode is speaking right now as well. 0:09:01.000 --> 0:09:02.800 We've been waiting for this address to the nation and 0:09:02.840 --> 0:09:06.600 he's finally speaking, joining us dance from Bloomberg senior reporter 0:09:07.080 --> 0:09:07.960 in New Delhi. 0:09:08.000 --> 0:09:10.440 What do we know from what Random Modi is saying 0:09:10.520 --> 0:09:12.600 right now, Well. 0:09:12.400 --> 0:09:16.840 I mean it's looking like Mody, his BJP party, which 0:09:16.840 --> 0:09:21.160 has ruled India with quite a substantial majority for the 0:09:21.240 --> 0:09:24.240 last ten years, is going to be losing its majority 0:09:24.800 --> 0:09:27.520 in the parliament and is going to have to form 0:09:27.559 --> 0:09:31.200 a government with its coalition partners. So it's really a 0:09:31.280 --> 0:09:37.040 major electoral setback for Mody, an electoral setback for the BJP, 0:09:37.760 --> 0:09:41.720 and I mean, more than anything, just quite a surprise 0:09:41.920 --> 0:09:46.360 to everybody here today. I mean, the ruling party was 0:09:46.360 --> 0:09:50.880 going into this election very optimistic, very confident of expanding 0:09:50.880 --> 0:09:53.800 its majority in Parliament, of getting a two thirds majority 0:09:53.840 --> 0:09:57.920 with its alliance partners, and it's looking like a total 0:09:57.960 --> 0:10:00.200 reversal on all those fronts. 0:10:01.720 --> 0:10:03.480 So, Dan, what are the people saying here? What are 0:10:03.480 --> 0:10:05.680 the voters saying here? What don't they like? 0:10:05.840 --> 0:10:07.720 What are they pushing back on in terms of the 0:10:07.760 --> 0:10:09.080 Modi administration. 0:10:10.040 --> 0:10:14.559 Well, one message that's emerging is that there's a real 0:10:15.120 --> 0:10:20.760 sort of simmering discontent with the economy that propelled a 0:10:20.760 --> 0:10:23.800 lot of a lot of voters at the polls during 0:10:23.960 --> 0:10:27.480 during the selection. I mean, you know, we know that 0:10:27.520 --> 0:10:30.400 India's India is really a big economic success story, I 0:10:30.400 --> 0:10:33.960 mean eight percent economic growth in the most recent fiscal year, 0:10:34.760 --> 0:10:37.680 you know, a really a growing presence on the world 0:10:37.800 --> 0:10:42.360 stage and and a rising manufacturer. But below the surface, 0:10:42.400 --> 0:10:45.600 there's a lot of issues. There's issues with high levels 0:10:45.640 --> 0:10:50.800 of joblessness, rising inflation, widening inequality. I mean, these are 0:10:50.840 --> 0:10:54.920 all issues that have really you know, grown in in 0:10:55.120 --> 0:10:59.000 salience over the last ten years and that that Modi 0:10:59.080 --> 0:11:01.320 and the b JP have i have really struggled to address. 0:11:01.360 --> 0:11:04.320 And there these are issues that the opposition really seized 0:11:04.400 --> 0:11:06.360 upon in this campaign. 0:11:08.480 --> 0:11:09.480 All Right, Dan, thanks a lot. 0:11:09.520 --> 0:11:11.800 We really appreciate looking forward not to hear any more 0:11:11.800 --> 0:11:14.000 of what Dranda Movie will say in this national address. 0:11:14.040 --> 0:11:16.680 And Stump Bloomberg, Senior reporter in New Delhi. 0:11:18.120 --> 0:11:22.000 You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch us live 0:11:22.080 --> 0:11:24.720 weekdays at ten am Eastern on Apple car Playing and 0:11:24.920 --> 0:11:27.800 broyd Outo with the Bloomberg Business app. Listen on demand 0:11:27.840 --> 0:11:32.160 wherever you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube. 0:11:33.360 --> 0:11:35.240 All right, Alix, here's the stuff that just gets me 0:11:35.280 --> 0:11:37.840 every time you come here. BNY Mellon is the world's 0:11:37.920 --> 0:11:41.240 largest custodian and Pershing is now the second largest business 0:11:41.240 --> 0:11:42.240 within BNY Melon. 0:11:42.480 --> 0:11:43.839 And I've done business. 0:11:43.600 --> 0:11:45.880 With Purging for thirty years, but every five years they 0:11:45.880 --> 0:11:47.319 have a different owner. It teams like, but it seems like 0:11:47.320 --> 0:11:50.680 they found a home here BNY. So we are in Nashville, 0:11:50.679 --> 0:11:54.280 Tennessee the Grand Gaylord oppuland Resort in Nashville for the 0:11:54.280 --> 0:11:57.000 bn Y Melon Insight Conference. Alex Steel and Paul Sweeney 0:11:57.320 --> 0:11:59.679 we're joined right now. We're very appreciative to get some 0:11:59.720 --> 0:12:01.440 time with Jim Crowley Global ahead of b and Y 0:12:01.480 --> 0:12:04.880 Mellon's perject business. He joins us here on site Jim, 0:12:04.880 --> 0:12:06.960 thanks so much for having us did this year. I 0:12:07.040 --> 0:12:09.640 know it's a you got two thousand financial advisors around here. 0:12:09.640 --> 0:12:11.760 They've all got their own agendas, But what's the theme 0:12:11.800 --> 0:12:14.360 you're trying to get across to the folks here? 0:12:14.679 --> 0:12:19.720 So two thousand advisors, correct and thought leadership people. So 0:12:20.240 --> 0:12:22.920 the theme that we're trying to get across is how 0:12:22.920 --> 0:12:25.600 do you take your business to the next level? Because 0:12:25.600 --> 0:12:30.240 we believe that scale, productivity, and growth are the lifeblood 0:12:30.440 --> 0:12:35.320 of our industry. And at bn Y Melon, who is 0:12:35.400 --> 0:12:38.440 by the way, celebrating its two hundred and fortieth year 0:12:39.160 --> 0:12:43.679 in business, we believe that there's so much value embedded 0:12:43.880 --> 0:12:47.040 in the bing Y Melon franchise that we can unlock 0:12:47.320 --> 0:12:50.640 and deliver these to financial advisors to help power their 0:12:50.679 --> 0:12:51.560 growth in the future. 0:12:51.920 --> 0:12:54.120 And what does that growth look like in the future? 0:12:54.160 --> 0:12:57.000 Like what's new today that wouldn't have been here a 0:12:57.080 --> 0:12:57.439 year ago? 0:12:57.760 --> 0:13:00.200 Well, I think what's new today is that people. People 0:13:00.280 --> 0:13:03.720 are more and more coming to the realization how complex 0:13:03.840 --> 0:13:07.360 this business is and becoming even more complex than the environment, 0:13:07.400 --> 0:13:11.960 whether it's macro things related to technology, regulation or just 0:13:12.000 --> 0:13:15.960 the economy and how much energy and how much investment 0:13:16.080 --> 0:13:19.240 dollars they have to invest in operating the business, So 0:13:19.320 --> 0:13:23.040 how can they outsource things to be more efficient, more productive, 0:13:23.240 --> 0:13:27.880 drive more scale, and sort of eliminate those binding constraints 0:13:27.880 --> 0:13:28.480 to their growth. 0:13:28.760 --> 0:13:30.720 You know, one of the great stories I think in 0:13:31.440 --> 0:13:36.400 personal wealth management is this whole transition or bequeathment, if 0:13:36.400 --> 0:13:38.760 you will, of the wealth of the baby boomer generation 0:13:39.400 --> 0:13:41.880 to the next generation. So, if I'm a financial advisor, 0:13:42.360 --> 0:13:44.360 I'm not just a stock and bond person. 0:13:44.440 --> 0:13:45.080 I got to think. 0:13:45.000 --> 0:13:47.360 About estates and wills and taxation and all that kind 0:13:47.400 --> 0:13:47.800 of stuff. 0:13:48.320 --> 0:13:49.720 How do you guys help them with that? 0:13:49.960 --> 0:13:52.920 Yeah, planning is certainly becoming more and more part of 0:13:52.960 --> 0:13:56.560 the formula, right, So investment management used to sort of 0:13:56.600 --> 0:13:59.720 be the core competency of a financial advisor, but now 0:13:59.760 --> 0:14:01.160 it's it's a different story. 0:14:01.240 --> 0:14:01.400 Right. 0:14:01.440 --> 0:14:04.200 You have to have a breath of large breath of 0:14:04.280 --> 0:14:07.200 services that you can offer to every one of your 0:14:07.200 --> 0:14:09.840 clients because their financial lives are becoming more and more complex. 0:14:09.880 --> 0:14:13.079 And so we put out in the marketplace a platform 0:14:13.120 --> 0:14:16.160 to offer all those things, whether it's planning, whether it's 0:14:16.280 --> 0:14:21.480 tax transition work, whether it's estate planning, and providing them 0:14:21.480 --> 0:14:24.240 with investment management tools and all the other products that 0:14:24.240 --> 0:14:26.280 they need in order to be successful with advisors. 0:14:26.360 --> 0:14:28.880 We were talking earlier about greyscale having a boost right 0:14:28.920 --> 0:14:32.000 behind you. Yeah, that's different, is it not? 0:14:32.480 --> 0:14:32.880 It is? 0:14:33.040 --> 0:14:36.240 It is different, And in fact, you know, if you 0:14:36.320 --> 0:14:39.560 take a three year sort of perspective on the business, 0:14:40.000 --> 0:14:44.040 we have this thought that almost every portfolio will have 0:14:44.160 --> 0:14:49.920 some tokenized asset in their portfolio in three years. 0:14:50.280 --> 0:14:54.239 Wow, how much of the portfolio well to be determined? 0:14:54.320 --> 0:14:57.680 Right, whether it's that five percent or that ten percent. 0:14:57.640 --> 0:14:59.920 That's a big difference if you're a bitcoin older. 0:15:00.120 --> 0:15:02.720 Big difference at yeah, sixty six or wherever we're at. 0:15:03.080 --> 0:15:05.440 Yeah, So tell us about security. 0:15:05.480 --> 0:15:07.320 If I think about a system, a financial system, I 0:15:07.360 --> 0:15:10.080 mean a Bloomberg. We take data security and the security 0:15:10.120 --> 0:15:13.880 of our system extraordinarily seriously, and I know that folks 0:15:13.880 --> 0:15:15.960 in the financial services industry have to do as well. 0:15:16.160 --> 0:15:18.160 So I'm a wealth manager out there trying to serve 0:15:18.200 --> 0:15:21.800 my clients. How do I feel secure about maybe your platform? 0:15:21.840 --> 0:15:22.960 We're just platforms in general. 0:15:23.120 --> 0:15:26.360 Yeah, So what comes along with being a two hundred 0:15:26.360 --> 0:15:30.040 and forty year old institution is this notion of resiliency 0:15:30.640 --> 0:15:34.440 and being a globally systematic important bank. We have a 0:15:34.440 --> 0:15:36.520 lot of help with making certain that all of our 0:15:36.560 --> 0:15:39.440 systems and all of our data are well protected and 0:15:39.600 --> 0:15:43.440 backed up. And so we take great pride in everything 0:15:43.440 --> 0:15:46.800 we do around cyber resiliency. And we also take great 0:15:46.840 --> 0:15:49.680 pride by the way and making data available to clients 0:15:50.720 --> 0:15:54.120 because these clients, these financial advisors, need those insights, and 0:15:54.120 --> 0:15:57.040 so we're working hard on trying to create the tools 0:15:57.040 --> 0:16:00.280 that they need to not only stay resilient in their 0:16:00.400 --> 0:16:03.880 operating environment, but also to create value with the data 0:16:03.920 --> 0:16:04.360 that we have. 0:16:04.880 --> 0:16:08.320 So, how many wealth advisors financial advisors are here? Two thousand? 0:16:08.560 --> 0:16:11.640 Well, give or take there are two thousand attendees. There 0:16:11.720 --> 0:16:16.040 are roughly one thousand, roughly fifty percent our advisors, and 0:16:16.080 --> 0:16:19.560 then you know, roughly the next half is going to 0:16:19.600 --> 0:16:24.760 be thought leaders exhibitors that are here, and then a 0:16:24.800 --> 0:16:26.880 group of us who are in client coverage business. 0:16:27.040 --> 0:16:30.320 Do we have too many wealth managers, too many financial advisors? 0:16:30.360 --> 0:16:32.920 Well, that's a very interesting question, you know, because I 0:16:33.000 --> 0:16:35.479 think this. I don't think we have enough wealth. 0:16:35.240 --> 0:16:36.920 Managers really in the US. 0:16:37.160 --> 0:16:41.080 The demand for I think wealth advice is only going 0:16:41.280 --> 0:16:44.960 higher given the complexity of the operating environment. And let's 0:16:45.000 --> 0:16:47.680 be let's be disorder, said the way it is, wealth 0:16:47.720 --> 0:16:50.840 managers are aging out of the industry, so we need 0:16:50.880 --> 0:16:54.760 to bring the next generation of wealth managers into the market. 0:16:55.360 --> 0:16:58.800 Sweeney Offspring number three is going into that business right now. 0:16:59.080 --> 0:16:59.960 Take Yeah, that's cool. 0:17:00.440 --> 0:17:02.960 Finally one out of forest following on Wall Street. I 0:17:03.000 --> 0:17:05.119 guess that's not a too bad of an average. How 0:17:05.119 --> 0:17:09.199 about consolidation in this business. There's a lot of you know, 0:17:09.320 --> 0:17:12.200 mom and pop advisors out there, and I would think, 0:17:12.200 --> 0:17:14.720 as you mentioned the complexity of the business, just managing 0:17:14.760 --> 0:17:17.280 the business getting so much more, is there going to 0:17:17.320 --> 0:17:18.640 see more consolidation do you think? 0:17:18.720 --> 0:17:21.359 I think the consolidation is going to continue, to call it, 0:17:21.480 --> 0:17:24.640 and we sort of see this separation happen. You have 0:17:25.920 --> 0:17:28.400 a large number of firms now who are becoming even 0:17:28.560 --> 0:17:31.679 larger as a result of not only organic growth, but 0:17:31.760 --> 0:17:34.280 inorganic growth, and that's going to continue to sort of happen, 0:17:34.359 --> 0:17:37.720 we believe. And then at the other end of the spectrum, 0:17:37.760 --> 0:17:40.400 there are several niche firms who are going to continue 0:17:40.400 --> 0:17:44.240 to operate as they do, who operate at scale in 0:17:44.359 --> 0:17:48.600 their market and stay at that size. But in order 0:17:48.640 --> 0:17:50.760 to get to that scale that I was just talking 0:17:50.760 --> 0:17:52.879 about a moment ago, as a result of M and A, 0:17:53.680 --> 0:17:58.439 you really do need more resiliency, more structure around what 0:17:58.560 --> 0:17:59.439 it is you're trying to do. 0:18:00.040 --> 0:18:02.560 So took the point if you put these points together, 0:18:02.920 --> 0:18:05.400 Lisa Mantaya, I was just talking about game Stop and 0:18:05.440 --> 0:18:08.200 Paul was horrified and rolled his eyes. But the idea 0:18:08.280 --> 0:18:10.480 that a lot of young people and not even young people, 0:18:10.480 --> 0:18:12.959 but people think they can do this themselves, that they 0:18:13.000 --> 0:18:15.320 don't need help, and that they have the tools online 0:18:15.359 --> 0:18:18.480 to manage their own money. How do you what do 0:18:18.520 --> 0:18:19.439 you tell them with that? 0:18:20.119 --> 0:18:22.680 I think that the tools are getting much much better 0:18:22.720 --> 0:18:25.560 for people to manage their own money, and the product 0:18:25.600 --> 0:18:29.320 availability and the education material is becoming much more prevalent 0:18:29.320 --> 0:18:33.840 in the marketplace. However, money is very emotional, and when 0:18:33.840 --> 0:18:36.520 you get to a certain asset level or wealth level, 0:18:36.720 --> 0:18:41.520 or your life complexity changes, having another person sitting there 0:18:41.560 --> 0:18:44.400 alongside of you to coach you through that and even 0:18:44.440 --> 0:18:48.720 out those emotional spikes is super important. So I think 0:18:48.760 --> 0:18:51.880 the wealth industry is really well positioned over the next 0:18:51.960 --> 0:18:54.879 number of years, as wealth expands and it is the 0:18:54.880 --> 0:18:58.560 fastest growing marketplace, that there's going to be a need 0:18:58.600 --> 0:19:03.359 for wealth advisors, more of them and their role and 0:19:03.440 --> 0:19:05.880 their value in the relationship is only going to get 0:19:05.880 --> 0:19:07.600 greater as more complexity ners. 0:19:08.119 --> 0:19:10.520 So since I've been on Wall Street more than thirty years, 0:19:10.840 --> 0:19:14.440 the story has been brokers leaving financial advisors, leaving the 0:19:14.480 --> 0:19:16.000 wirehouses and going out on their own. 0:19:16.160 --> 0:19:17.959 Yeah, that hasn't changed, has it. 0:19:18.240 --> 0:19:22.560 I don't think that has changed. I mean there is. Look, 0:19:22.600 --> 0:19:25.880 there's a shift in the industry. From when we started 0:19:25.880 --> 0:19:28.080 in the business, one hundred percent of the things that 0:19:28.119 --> 0:19:31.679 we did were commission based. Today the majority of the 0:19:31.720 --> 0:19:34.800 business that we have on our platform is advisory based. 0:19:35.480 --> 0:19:39.920 And so I think this idea of financial advisors, more 0:19:39.960 --> 0:19:42.199 and more of them needed for the industry, and the 0:19:42.320 --> 0:19:44.639 idea that some of them want to run their own 0:19:44.720 --> 0:19:48.320 business will continue to sort of be a trend. But 0:19:48.440 --> 0:19:51.320 I think more of those firms now, Paul, are looking 0:19:51.359 --> 0:19:55.600 to land someplace as opposed to start of building something 0:19:55.680 --> 0:19:58.400 fresh from the start, because it's pretty it's pretty hard. 0:19:59.400 --> 0:20:02.280 Jim, wonderful to chat with you. Thank you so much. 0:20:02.320 --> 0:20:04.760 I learned a ton Jim Crowley, Global head of b 0:20:04.840 --> 0:20:07.760 and Yatt Melling's pershing and good luck on your keynotes. 0:20:07.840 --> 0:20:11.120 You haven't given it yet, right, No, it's nott there all. 0:20:11.080 --> 0:20:14.280 Right deep teas there enjoy that as well. 0:20:14.480 --> 0:20:17.720 We have to wonder though, as people become more confident 0:20:17.760 --> 0:20:21.600 in their way of trading or operating, like are they how. 0:20:21.480 --> 0:20:23.880