WEBVTT - Week 17 NFL Bets: Nick's Picks

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<v Speaker 2>Welcome in episode one eleven, Week seventeen NFL Gambling Show.

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<v Speaker 2>And if I sound a little sad because we were

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<v Speaker 2>so close to digging ourselves out of our season long

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<v Speaker 2>hold and then a week of you know what, I'm

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<v Speaker 2>gonna go ahead and say it. I think they were

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<v Speaker 2>all great picks. I do, I think, and I think

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<v Speaker 2>I can prove it to you. That's somehow despite going

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<v Speaker 2>one in four last week. I think the process was sound,

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<v Speaker 2>I think the logic was sound. I think we got

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<v Speaker 2>a little unlucky in some spots. So let's show you

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<v Speaker 2>last week if we could. It's a one and four

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<v Speaker 2>week and no they We're now six games under five

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<v Speaker 2>hundred on the season. So let's go through these five games.

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<v Speaker 2>Giants plus four, they lose by three on a sixty

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<v Speaker 2>one yard field goal. We cover, feeling good. Cleveland minus

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<v Speaker 2>ten or minus three? Pardon me? They were up ten

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<v Speaker 2>to nothing in the coldest NFL game in years, playing

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<v Speaker 2>a New Orleans team with an Andy Dalton Taysom Hill quarterback. Combo,

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<v Speaker 2>They're up ten to nothing at what moment in the game,

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<v Speaker 2>with four minutes left in the second quarter, I'm laying three.

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<v Speaker 2>They then let those dufuses in New Orleans score seventeen

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<v Speaker 2>consecutive points and they don't score again, so they don't cover. Fine,

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<v Speaker 2>so be it. It happens. Also, at some point there

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<v Speaker 2>might need to be a Deshaun Watson conversation had because

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<v Speaker 2>he once again the gas is terrible. Yeah, Vegas plus

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<v Speaker 2>two and a half at Pittsburgh. How's Vegas doing on

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<v Speaker 2>Christmas Eve night? Well, they're ahead ten to three, then

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<v Speaker 2>they're ahead ten to six with a minute left in

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<v Speaker 2>the game. I'm getting two and a half points. So

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<v Speaker 2>they of course allow a touchdown to lose by three.

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<v Speaker 2>After covering the entire game, I'm getting two and a half.

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<v Speaker 2>They were covering for fifty nine minutes and forty six

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<v Speaker 2>seconds of that football game didn't matter. They end up

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<v Speaker 2>losing by three Miami minus four. Well, they lose that

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<v Speaker 2>game out right, Nick, How can you feel good about that? Well,

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<v Speaker 2>they're up twenty to ten in that game, and then

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<v Speaker 2>Tua gets concussed. But no one knows he got concussed

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<v Speaker 2>until you saw him play in the fourth quarter when

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<v Speaker 2>he threw three picks, and all of a sudden, they

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<v Speaker 2>lose that game out right by six minutes. And then, lastly,

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<v Speaker 2>the one that you're gonna say is the least defensible

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<v Speaker 2>Chicago plus eight and a half against Buffalo, Nick, the Bills.

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<v Speaker 2>The Bills won by what they win by twenty one.

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<v Speaker 2>In that game, they won by twenty two. The Bears

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<v Speaker 2>were ahead at halftime. I'm catching eight and a half.

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<v Speaker 2>They're up ten to six at half time. They are

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<v Speaker 2>down eight with four minutes left. I'm getting eight and

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<v Speaker 2>a half. They lose the game by twenty two. Thames.

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<v Speaker 2>By the way, I also had them in a teaser,

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<v Speaker 2>getting them in the Demonse Bird Special ten point teaser

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<v Speaker 2>to plus eighteen and a half, and they of course,

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<v Speaker 2>somehow to not cover the eighteen and a half despite

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<v Speaker 2>being down by eight with four minutes left in a

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<v Speaker 2>game they led it half to So that's how you

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<v Speaker 2>go one in four America. We're not proud of it.

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<v Speaker 2>We're not happy with it. We're six games under five hundred.

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<v Speaker 2>We have never finished in NFL regular season below five hundred.

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<v Speaker 2>So that means this week we need to go four

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<v Speaker 2>and one at a minimum in order to make it

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<v Speaker 2>to war four and one. Four and one we finish

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<v Speaker 2>at five hundred. The other is in week eighteen. If

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<v Speaker 2>we just want to pick all sixteen games and try

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<v Speaker 2>to run it up that way, that is a reckless thing. However,

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<v Speaker 2>I would like to do one thing. I would as

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<v Speaker 2>we are now approaching week eighteen or week seventeen, I

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<v Speaker 2>would like to do one thing quickly before we get

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<v Speaker 2>to our picks this week. Talk about our preseason bets.

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<v Speaker 2>Baltimore over ten and a half. They're sitting at ten wins,

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<v Speaker 2>one more win. They hit the over Indy over nine

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<v Speaker 2>and a half, dead Jacksonville over six and a half,

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<v Speaker 2>already cashed, Kansas City over ten and a half, already

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<v Speaker 2>cashed New England under eight and a half looking great,

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<v Speaker 2>they would have to win out for us to lose

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<v Speaker 2>that bet. Giants under seven and a half dead, Sam, wait,

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<v Speaker 2>is it dead? Yeah, it's dead? Or hold on, is

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<v Speaker 2>the Giants bet dead? I think it is dead. Giants

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<v Speaker 2>bet dead? I said over seven the Giants right now,

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<v Speaker 2>yeah they have They're eight six and one though, So

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<v Speaker 2>the Giants bets dead. San Francisco over nine and a

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<v Speaker 2>half already cashed. Yeah, Tampa under eleven and a half

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<v Speaker 2>already cashed. So that means we lost Indy and the

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<v Speaker 2>Giants we have already won Jacksonville, Kansas City, San Francisco,

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<v Speaker 2>and Tampa, and Baltimore needs to win one more so

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<v Speaker 2>five and two on deck. There this bet here, which

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<v Speaker 2>looked dead at one point. Seattle, the Jets, Atlanta, and

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<v Speaker 2>New England all missed the playoffs. Seattle hanging on by

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<v Speaker 2>a thread, at Lana Out the Jets hanging on by

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<v Speaker 2>a thread. New England hanging on by a thread. So

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<v Speaker 2>if Detroit or Washington get the final playoff spot in

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<v Speaker 2>the NFC and in Miami can get it together the

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<v Speaker 2>final playoffs without the AFC, we win. Cleveland misses the

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<v Speaker 2>playoffs minus one seventy winner Denver misses the playoffs plus

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<v Speaker 2>one twenty winner New England misses the playoffs minus one

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<v Speaker 2>ninety eight. We'll see, but I feel good about it.

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<v Speaker 2>And then if you and then I also had a

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<v Speaker 2>division winner parlay, which isn't gonna hit because I had

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<v Speaker 2>Indy right. But then, don't forget America the fifty to

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<v Speaker 2>one that I gave out on our preseason gambling show

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<v Speaker 2>super Bowl exacta Chiefs Niners don't need a winner in it.

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<v Speaker 2>Just the Chiefs win the AFC Niners to win the NFC.

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<v Speaker 2>So our preseason bets are super profitable. Our in season

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<v Speaker 2>bets have been a disaster.

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<v Speaker 3>So so basically, what you're saying is you're better at

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<v Speaker 3>making bets with no data.

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<v Speaker 2>Know that that was insulting. What I'm saying is my

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<v Speaker 2>long term view of the season. Compiling all the offseason

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<v Speaker 2>data was spot on. My preseason, my week to week

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<v Speaker 2>view of the season. I've had some bad luck, but

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<v Speaker 2>this week we turned that sucker around because I liked

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<v Speaker 2>our bets. Last week I felt good about him. There

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<v Speaker 2>was none of those bets. I'm like, what am I thinking?

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<v Speaker 2>Watching those games? I felt good about him? Yeah, put

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<v Speaker 2>that graphic up there. I was right along. That's correct.

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<v Speaker 2>This week we start with an underdog that's gonna win outright,

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<v Speaker 2>the Dolphins getting two and a half at New England.

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<v Speaker 2>So here's the deal. I think Teddy Bridgewater is gonna

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<v Speaker 2>be fine. So Teddy Bridgewater has not had a real

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<v Speaker 2>opportunity yet with Miami. So here's been his three games

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<v Speaker 2>he's played with Miami. He came in mid game for

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<v Speaker 2>two when Tua got thrown to the turf against Cincinnati.

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<v Speaker 2>The next week, he was the listed starter. He lasted

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<v Speaker 2>less than one series. Then he got put in concussion

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<v Speaker 2>protocol so he didn't play. He threw one pass. The

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<v Speaker 2>next week, he was the backup to Skyler Thompson because

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<v Speaker 2>he had been in concussion protocol all week. Skyler then

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<v Speaker 2>got hurt. Teddy came in mid game, threw for three

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<v Speaker 2>hundred yards now also threw a couple of picks, and

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<v Speaker 2>they lost the game. But Teddy Bridgewater is yet to

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<v Speaker 2>get a full week of practice as the one and

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<v Speaker 2>get the full game. He's gonna get that this week.

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<v Speaker 2>The Patriots stink their quarterbacks awful, and I think that

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<v Speaker 2>in a weird way, with Tua struggling the way he

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<v Speaker 2>has the last month, Teddy is a tougher matchup for

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<v Speaker 2>the Belichick defense because I think Tua it was very

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<v Speaker 2>clear some things you could do to disrupt him. And

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<v Speaker 2>one other point that I don't think people fully consider

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<v Speaker 2>as far as how specifically difficult it is for Miami

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<v Speaker 2>to adjust on the fly to a quarterback change as

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<v Speaker 2>opposed to having a full week to do it. They're

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<v Speaker 2>starters left handed, so when Teddy came in mid game,

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<v Speaker 2>you have to flip all your protections, you have to

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<v Speaker 2>flip all your boot legs. You have to do everything

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<v Speaker 2>in a mirror left to right. Now they have a

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<v Speaker 2>full week practicing with it. Miami is gonna go to

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<v Speaker 2>the playoffs. They're not going to go eight and three

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<v Speaker 2>to out of the playoffs. They're gonna end New England season.

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<v Speaker 2>They're catching points. They're gonna win out right. Miami plus

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<v Speaker 2>two and a half love it.

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<v Speaker 3>So you've made it obvious that you trust Teddy Bridgewater more.

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<v Speaker 2>Than Mac Jones. Yes, no question, Oh yeah, no question.

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<v Speaker 3>Be known. You were three and zero picking AFC East

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<v Speaker 3>divisional games this year.

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<v Speaker 2>I didn't know that, but I like that. It makes

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<v Speaker 2>me feel good. I think a couple of those are

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<v Speaker 2>fading the Bills when they were laying big numbers against

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<v Speaker 2>the Dolphins of the jack Yeah, so Miami plus two

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<v Speaker 2>and a half next one is an odd game to

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<v Speaker 2>bet because this is a don't watch. This is a

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<v Speaker 2>how there's sixteen games this weekend? How dare you have

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<v Speaker 2>this on one of your screens? Arizona getting three and

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<v Speaker 2>a half at Atlanta? This is very, very simple. Why

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<v Speaker 2>I'm doing this. We're not gonnapend much time on it.

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<v Speaker 2>Desmond Ridder should not be favored by more than a

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<v Speaker 2>field goal against any team in the league. It's that simple.

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<v Speaker 2>I don't care that Arizona is starting Trace McSorley, I

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<v Speaker 2>don't Desmond Ridder. Have people watched Desmond Ridder? Have people

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<v Speaker 2>watched Atlanta? My guess the answer to that is no,

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<v Speaker 2>So Desmond Ridder. I just want to tell America what

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<v Speaker 2>Desmond Ridder has done since he took over for Marcus Mariota.

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<v Speaker 2>And then Mariota got very mad and left the team,

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<v Speaker 2>which is evidently in vogue now because Carr left the

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<v Speaker 2>Raiders after finding out he was being benched. So what's up.

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<v Speaker 3>We've already spent too much time on Raiders Cardinals.

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<v Speaker 2>Okay, we have not. I just want to tell America

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<v Speaker 2>what Desmond Ritter has done in his two football games.

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<v Speaker 2>He started against this or he played against the Saints.

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<v Speaker 2>He threw the ball twenty six times for ninety seven yards,

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<v Speaker 2>no touchdowns, no picks. He then played against Baltimore, he

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<v Speaker 2>threw the ball thirty three times or two hundred and

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<v Speaker 2>eighteen yards. Give him credit for that. That resulted in

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<v Speaker 2>a grand total of nine points all field goals. He's

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<v Speaker 2>yet to account for a touchdown while playing. He cannot

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<v Speaker 2>be a three and a half point favor He just

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<v Speaker 2>can't be. So we're taking the three and a half

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<v Speaker 2>with trace McSorley and the sad sac Arizona Cardinals.

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<v Speaker 3>So what these two quarterbacks that are playing in this game.

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<v Speaker 3>You don't see this at all as being a stay

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<v Speaker 3>away game. Well, I two terrible quarterbacks.

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<v Speaker 2>Sometimes you put it in the stay away category, but

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<v Speaker 2>not when you can get three and a half points.

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<v Speaker 2>They're just giving me three and a half points. Why

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<v Speaker 2>because Atlanta is gonna have some great home field advantage.

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<v Speaker 2>They're eliminated from the playoffs. Nobody thinks they're good. They're

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<v Speaker 2>not excited about anything. No, they're dead. They're officially eliminated.

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<v Speaker 2>They're dead. No, Arizona plus three and a half is

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<v Speaker 2>the play. Next, we're gonna lay a big number. San

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<v Speaker 2>Francisco minus ten in Vegas. Big road number against Jared's

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<v Speaker 2>Sidham is very simple. In order for San Francisco to

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<v Speaker 2>cover ten points against the Jared Sidham Las Vegas Raiders,

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<v Speaker 2>they need to score fourteen points. The Raiders are not

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<v Speaker 2>scoring more than three points in this game. DeVante Adams

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<v Speaker 2>is furious about the car situation. He's made that very

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<v Speaker 2>clear this week. Josh Jacob is just devastated by what

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<v Speaker 2>the team has done. And Jacobs is a pending free agent,

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<v Speaker 2>and because he had such a bad game this past weekend,

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<v Speaker 2>the kind of long shot of Kajosh Jacobs rush for

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<v Speaker 2>two thousand yards. He went in this past week's game

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<v Speaker 2>with fifteen hundred. So it's like, ah, have a buck

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<v Speaker 2>fifty in each of the last two or it's the

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<v Speaker 2>last week and this week going to the final week,

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<v Speaker 2>be like, yeah, pop off a two hundred yard game,

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<v Speaker 2>you have two thousand yards. No, he had fifty yards.

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<v Speaker 2>So he's he's going to keep himself healthy. Devonte's upset

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<v Speaker 2>they're going to Jared Stidam. They're playing for draft positioning.

0:14:35.640 --> 0:14:38.560
<v Speaker 2>San Francisco, on the other hand, still faintly alive for

0:14:38.640 --> 0:14:41.560
<v Speaker 2>the one seed, definitely alive for the two seed, which

0:14:41.600 --> 0:14:46.400
<v Speaker 2>they really want. San Francisco is going to annihilate Jared's Stidham,

0:14:46.600 --> 0:14:50.160
<v Speaker 2>who's not an NFL quarterback. San Francisco minus ten to

0:14:50.200 --> 0:14:51.160
<v Speaker 2>play question.

0:14:51.440 --> 0:14:54.120
<v Speaker 3>Yeah, this is one of those games since Derek Carr

0:14:54.160 --> 0:14:57.520
<v Speaker 3>is being benched for Jared Stidham. Yeah, this is one

0:14:57.520 --> 0:14:59.600
<v Speaker 3>of those situations where you bet where you wish you

0:14:59.600 --> 0:15:02.400
<v Speaker 3>bet early in the week because it opened at minus

0:15:02.480 --> 0:15:04.280
<v Speaker 3>seven and he went down to minus ten.

0:15:04.480 --> 0:15:09.200
<v Speaker 2>Okay, yeah, I missed the opportunity online value. There's no

0:15:09.320 --> 0:15:13.520
<v Speaker 2>question there. However, I think it is instructive that it

0:15:13.560 --> 0:15:16.920
<v Speaker 2>only went from seven to ten. That's why I love it.

0:15:17.520 --> 0:15:20.280
<v Speaker 2>Derek Carr might not be great, he is worth more

0:15:20.320 --> 0:15:25.520
<v Speaker 2>than three points than Jared Stidham. Jared Stidham's not an

0:15:25.600 --> 0:15:30.520
<v Speaker 2>NFL quarterback. He was drafted by the Patriots. I'm gonna

0:15:30.520 --> 0:15:34.240
<v Speaker 2>pull up Jared Stidham's career numbers just so everyone understands

0:15:34.360 --> 0:15:37.480
<v Speaker 2>what I'm talking about here. The Raiders, I think they

0:15:37.520 --> 0:15:42.920
<v Speaker 2>are all in on either Brady or Garoppolo this offseason,

0:15:43.240 --> 0:15:47.080
<v Speaker 2>reunite with Josh McDaniels, and they're moving on from Carr

0:15:47.120 --> 0:15:49.160
<v Speaker 2>because they don't The reason they benched Car is they

0:15:49.200 --> 0:15:52.000
<v Speaker 2>don't want him to get hurt, and then they're on

0:15:52.040 --> 0:15:54.920
<v Speaker 2>the hook for his money. Jared Stidham in his career,

0:15:55.920 --> 0:16:00.400
<v Speaker 2>has thrown the ball sixty one times. In those sixty

0:16:00.480 --> 0:16:03.880
<v Speaker 2>one attempts, he has somehow managed to throw four interceptions.

0:16:05.000 --> 0:16:09.120
<v Speaker 2>That's one interception every fifteen pass attempts for this guy.

0:16:09.520 --> 0:16:13.200
<v Speaker 2>He's not an NFL player. He has thrown let mean,

0:16:13.440 --> 0:16:17.200
<v Speaker 2>thirteen total passes in the last two seasons. He's up

0:16:17.200 --> 0:16:21.920
<v Speaker 2>against the best defensive football all lay the ten points. Next,

0:16:22.400 --> 0:16:25.040
<v Speaker 2>another underdog that I think is gonna win out right.

0:16:25.760 --> 0:16:30.120
<v Speaker 2>Oh my god, I just dropping his computer. Minnesota plus

0:16:30.160 --> 0:16:34.400
<v Speaker 2>three and a half at green Bay. Why is there

0:16:34.400 --> 0:16:38.040
<v Speaker 2>all this steam on green Bay? Why is there so

0:16:38.240 --> 0:16:42.680
<v Speaker 2>much belief in green Bay? On Nick? They're hot? Are they?

0:16:43.840 --> 0:16:44.560
<v Speaker 2>They go ahead?

0:16:44.680 --> 0:16:46.040
<v Speaker 3>Rogers undefeated in December?

0:16:46.480 --> 0:16:51.840
<v Speaker 2>Okay, so let's talk about Okay, let's talk about Rogers

0:16:51.880 --> 0:16:53.920
<v Speaker 2>in December, because this is what I keep hearing. Oh,

0:16:54.200 --> 0:16:58.800
<v Speaker 2>green Bay is dangerous. Green Bay's hot streak is beating

0:16:58.840 --> 0:17:01.400
<v Speaker 2>the Bears, who right now would have the second pick

0:17:01.400 --> 0:17:06.000
<v Speaker 2>of the draft, beating the Rams, who would right now

0:17:06.040 --> 0:17:08.639
<v Speaker 2>have the sixth pick of the draft, and beating the

0:17:08.680 --> 0:17:12.160
<v Speaker 2>Dolphins in a game that Rogers didn't play that well

0:17:12.520 --> 0:17:15.399
<v Speaker 2>that to a melted down in We now think in

0:17:15.440 --> 0:17:18.640
<v Speaker 2>part because he had a concussion. Rogers in this three

0:17:18.640 --> 0:17:22.040
<v Speaker 2>game winning streak is actually playing worse than he was

0:17:22.080 --> 0:17:26.639
<v Speaker 2>playing in the previous dozen games. He has three touchdowns

0:17:26.640 --> 0:17:29.160
<v Speaker 2>and two picks and an eighty five rating and averaging

0:17:29.160 --> 0:17:31.919
<v Speaker 2>two hundred and ten yards per game. In this winning streak,

0:17:32.200 --> 0:17:34.840
<v Speaker 2>Minnesota is still live for the one seed. They much

0:17:34.880 --> 0:17:37.439
<v Speaker 2>like San Francisco, want to be the two seed if

0:17:37.440 --> 0:17:39.520
<v Speaker 2>they can't get to the one. And you're giving me

0:17:39.600 --> 0:17:42.399
<v Speaker 2>not You're not just giving me points, you're giving me

0:17:42.520 --> 0:17:44.120
<v Speaker 2>more than a field goal. What's up.

0:17:44.280 --> 0:17:46.439
<v Speaker 3>The Vikings are also zero and three against the spread

0:17:46.600 --> 0:17:47.879
<v Speaker 3>in the last three games.

0:17:48.320 --> 0:17:51.880
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, but that's so. Here's the thing. Let me double check.

0:17:51.720 --> 0:17:53.600
<v Speaker 3>That Aaron Rodgers is gonna be playing with that chip

0:17:53.640 --> 0:17:56.000
<v Speaker 3>on his shoulder. You know, he's got a chance. There's

0:17:56.080 --> 0:17:57.679
<v Speaker 3>light at the end of the tunnel as far as

0:17:57.720 --> 0:17:58.280
<v Speaker 3>the playoffs.

0:17:59.080 --> 0:18:01.600
<v Speaker 2>So the Viking are zero and three against the spread,

0:18:01.600 --> 0:18:04.160
<v Speaker 2>but only one of those games was a loss. They

0:18:04.280 --> 0:18:07.639
<v Speaker 2>beat the Colts. They beat the Giants. Now, the Colts

0:18:07.640 --> 0:18:10.000
<v Speaker 2>game was weird, they're down thirty three. Nothing came storing

0:18:10.080 --> 0:18:13.320
<v Speaker 2>back Giants game they won by a field goal at

0:18:13.359 --> 0:18:17.200
<v Speaker 2>the gun, getting three and a half. They're the better team.

0:18:17.600 --> 0:18:21.200
<v Speaker 2>The backers have no way to guard Justin Jefferson. No way,

0:18:21.560 --> 0:18:23.680
<v Speaker 2>is it? So you like Green Bay? It's gonna be wondering.

0:18:23.920 --> 0:18:25.800
<v Speaker 3>I mean, what's what you just said. You said though

0:18:26.040 --> 0:18:28.400
<v Speaker 3>those three games they only lost one game? Yea, none

0:18:28.560 --> 0:18:31.080
<v Speaker 3>were losses. No, they lost to Troy one of them, right, Yeah,

0:18:31.119 --> 0:18:32.679
<v Speaker 3>I mean, so what you're saying is you want them

0:18:32.720 --> 0:18:34.520
<v Speaker 3>on the money line and not the minus three point

0:18:34.560 --> 0:18:35.919
<v Speaker 3>five three.

0:18:35.760 --> 0:18:38.520
<v Speaker 2>And a half. I'm getting played and a half. Sorry,

0:18:38.560 --> 0:18:41.760
<v Speaker 2>that's why I'm getting three and a half in this spot.

0:18:41.960 --> 0:18:44.400
<v Speaker 2>The Yeah, I wouldn't lay three and a half with Minnesota.

0:18:44.440 --> 0:18:46.920
<v Speaker 2>All their games are field goal games. But I'm getting

0:18:46.960 --> 0:18:49.800
<v Speaker 2>three and a half points. It's the right side. There

0:18:49.880 --> 0:18:52.600
<v Speaker 2>is way too much optimism about the Packers, who are

0:18:52.640 --> 0:18:55.280
<v Speaker 2>gonna lose this weekend and they're gonna realize they missed

0:18:55.280 --> 0:19:00.040
<v Speaker 2>a golden opportunity to play Jordan Love and finally the

0:19:00.040 --> 0:19:04.520
<v Speaker 2>aime of the year, I'm getting the better team at

0:19:04.560 --> 0:19:12.880
<v Speaker 2>home and a point Cincinnati plus one against Buffalo. Cincinnati

0:19:12.920 --> 0:19:17.159
<v Speaker 2>this year has been wildly undervalued by Vegas twelve and

0:19:17.280 --> 0:19:22.040
<v Speaker 2>three against the spread. Buffalo continues to be slightly overvalued

0:19:22.040 --> 0:19:26.320
<v Speaker 2>by Vegas seven and eight against the spread. We don't now.

0:19:26.359 --> 0:19:29.040
<v Speaker 2>I am a little nervous about the Liel Collins injury.

0:19:29.280 --> 0:19:32.800
<v Speaker 2>Cincinnati has not shown the ability to deal with rotating

0:19:32.800 --> 0:19:35.200
<v Speaker 2>offensive line pieces you saw at the beginning of the year.

0:19:35.560 --> 0:19:39.200
<v Speaker 2>With that said, Buffalo, no von Miller isn't going to

0:19:39.240 --> 0:19:41.360
<v Speaker 2>be able to take advantage of it as much as

0:19:41.640 --> 0:19:46.239
<v Speaker 2>I think certain teams would that. For Cincinnati, this is

0:19:46.680 --> 0:19:51.600
<v Speaker 2>this keeps them alive for the number one seed. Conversely,

0:19:51.640 --> 0:19:55.359
<v Speaker 2>if they lose, they might end up being the five seed,

0:19:55.440 --> 0:20:00.280
<v Speaker 2>not even winning their division. Buffalo has one game games

0:20:01.200 --> 0:20:05.560
<v Speaker 2>over the last six weeks, with the exception of one game,

0:20:06.119 --> 0:20:08.960
<v Speaker 2>despite the play of their quarterback Josh Allen once again

0:20:09.040 --> 0:20:12.040
<v Speaker 2>last week a couple picks less than two hundred yards

0:20:12.080 --> 0:20:16.680
<v Speaker 2>passing game in Cincinnati is the biggest Monday night football

0:20:16.680 --> 0:20:19.960
<v Speaker 2>game in the history of that stadium. Cincinnati is gonna

0:20:19.960 --> 0:20:23.680
<v Speaker 2>win outright. I'm getting point, getting one point, not getting

0:20:23.720 --> 0:20:26.000
<v Speaker 2>a lot of points, but I'm getting a point at home.

0:20:26.359 --> 0:20:29.600
<v Speaker 2>I would bet Cincinnati all the way to minus two

0:20:29.600 --> 0:20:33.320
<v Speaker 2>and a half. I'm getting them plus one. They're gonna win.

0:20:34.200 --> 0:20:36.520
<v Speaker 2>It also is gonna be so helpful for the Chiefs

0:20:36.880 --> 0:20:40.520
<v Speaker 2>when we wake up Tuesday morning and Cincinnati's beaten Buffalo.

0:20:41.000 --> 0:20:44.560
<v Speaker 2>Guess who's the one seed again? Uh? All the Chiefs

0:20:44.760 --> 0:20:47.760
<v Speaker 2>with and you know the Chiefs this week have Denver.

0:20:48.119 --> 0:20:50.080
<v Speaker 2>We'll talk about that game in a moment. And next

0:20:50.080 --> 0:20:55.200
<v Speaker 2>week you know who they have, Jared Sidham, All Jared Stidham.

0:20:55.600 --> 0:20:59.359
<v Speaker 2>So I am rooting for Cincinnati in this game. I

0:20:59.359 --> 0:21:02.119
<v Speaker 2>also think the smarter side Cincinnati plus.

0:21:01.840 --> 0:21:04.080
<v Speaker 3>One Bills have a lot to lose in this game.

0:21:04.640 --> 0:21:06.200
<v Speaker 3>Are you sure that the Bengals are going to be

0:21:06.240 --> 0:21:07.560
<v Speaker 3>able to overpower that force?

0:21:07.680 --> 0:21:10.520
<v Speaker 2>I think they're better than them. I think Cincinnati is

0:21:10.560 --> 0:21:13.200
<v Speaker 2>better than Buffalo. I think they've been better throughout the year.

0:21:13.359 --> 0:21:16.000
<v Speaker 2>Their quarterback's been better, I think the defense has been

0:21:16.000 --> 0:21:21.000
<v Speaker 2>more consistent. I like Cincinnati, and I understand this is

0:21:21.040 --> 0:21:24.359
<v Speaker 2>a massive game for both teams, either of these. I

0:21:24.400 --> 0:21:25.520
<v Speaker 2>don't think it's as big.

0:21:25.320 --> 0:21:28.840
<v Speaker 3>A I mean, I guess, well, the thing is is

0:21:28.880 --> 0:21:30.560
<v Speaker 3>it might be a little bit bigger for the Bills.

0:21:31.720 --> 0:21:36.320
<v Speaker 2>Well, listen, the Bills at the very least know their

0:21:36.440 --> 0:21:39.600
<v Speaker 2>worst case scenarios. They fall to the three line, They've

0:21:39.640 --> 0:21:42.399
<v Speaker 2>won their division. Cincinnati is only a game up on

0:21:42.480 --> 0:21:47.639
<v Speaker 2>Baltimore and has Baltimore in Week eighteen. Cincinnati absolutely could

0:21:47.640 --> 0:21:50.359
<v Speaker 2>fall to the five line if they lose this game.

0:21:50.359 --> 0:21:53.399
<v Speaker 2>If things go awry for them, they so it's huge

0:21:53.400 --> 0:21:55.359
<v Speaker 2>for both teams. It's huge for Kansas City, who's not

0:21:55.400 --> 0:21:57.960
<v Speaker 2>even playing in it. We like Cincinnati plus one. So

0:21:58.000 --> 0:21:59.320
<v Speaker 2>if you want to know what a five and oh

0:21:59.440 --> 0:22:01.520
<v Speaker 2>slate looks like, you know what, And you guys at

0:22:01.560 --> 0:22:03.240
<v Speaker 2>the end of the show are gonna get me an offer.

0:22:03.440 --> 0:22:05.960
<v Speaker 2>I don't even need an offer. I'm just gonna parlay

0:22:06.040 --> 0:22:09.240
<v Speaker 2>all five twenty five to one, Miami plus two and

0:22:09.280 --> 0:22:10.680
<v Speaker 2>a half, and you know what, it's gonna be better

0:22:10.720 --> 0:22:13.800
<v Speaker 2>than twenty five to one because I'm putting Miami, Minnesota

0:22:13.800 --> 0:22:16.880
<v Speaker 2>in Cincinnati. I don't even need the points where we're

0:22:16.880 --> 0:22:19.159
<v Speaker 2>putting them on the money line. Miami plus two and

0:22:19.200 --> 0:22:21.560
<v Speaker 2>a half, Arizona plus three and a half, San Francisco

0:22:21.680 --> 0:22:24.920
<v Speaker 2>minus ten, Minnesota plus three and a half, and Cincinnati

0:22:24.920 --> 0:22:28.200
<v Speaker 2>plus one. Let's just find out real quick what that

0:22:29.200 --> 0:22:32.520
<v Speaker 2>exact bet that I just described what that would pay.

0:22:32.720 --> 0:22:34.840
<v Speaker 2>And I'm not certain about Minnesota on the money line.

0:22:34.880 --> 0:22:37.439
<v Speaker 2>I might be squeamish on that, but let's just go

0:22:37.560 --> 0:22:40.080
<v Speaker 2>through it real quick. So what did I say. I

0:22:40.080 --> 0:22:44.840
<v Speaker 2>gotta find out Miami money line plus one thirty and

0:22:44.880 --> 0:22:48.639
<v Speaker 2>then we're doing San Francisco minus ten. We'll do Minnesota

0:22:48.680 --> 0:22:51.359
<v Speaker 2>plus the points plus the three and a half, just

0:22:51.440 --> 0:22:55.760
<v Speaker 2>because Cincinnati on the money line, and there's one more

0:22:55.760 --> 0:22:59.240
<v Speaker 2>than I'm leaving Arizona. Oh, boring, the boring one where

0:22:59.280 --> 0:23:05.280
<v Speaker 2>Arizona getting three, Oh my god, thirty two forty to one,

0:23:06.320 --> 0:23:11.560
<v Speaker 2>thirty two to one, thirty two to one, Demontsy, you

0:23:11.640 --> 0:23:14.840
<v Speaker 2>and me, we're gonna we're putting that in there. Five

0:23:14.880 --> 0:23:17.480
<v Speaker 2>and oh week giving us a little breathing room going

0:23:17.640 --> 0:23:21.760
<v Speaker 2>could be one game under five hundred going into week eighteen. Yeah,

0:23:21.800 --> 0:23:24.840
<v Speaker 2>save the season. Oh, this is a this is a

0:23:24.880 --> 0:23:27.080
<v Speaker 2>great week. It is a great week.

0:23:27.119 --> 0:23:28.399
<v Speaker 3>I'm rooting for you. It's uh.

0:23:28.640 --> 0:23:30.879
<v Speaker 2>The offer hit last week and we didn't bet it.

0:23:31.600 --> 0:23:35.719
<v Speaker 2>It ended up hitting Lebron's over Lucas over the Jacks

0:23:35.760 --> 0:23:39.440
<v Speaker 2>to win and the Chiefs to cover the offer hit

0:23:40.480 --> 0:23:43.600
<v Speaker 2>the plus twelve hundred. No, that was it. The Chiefs

0:23:43.600 --> 0:23:44.440
<v Speaker 2>won by fourteen.

0:23:44.840 --> 0:23:47.600
<v Speaker 3>I thought something with Luca had happen. Or Lebron.

0:23:47.840 --> 0:23:51.720
<v Speaker 2>No, Lebron scored thirty eight. On Christmas, Lucas scored scored

0:23:51.760 --> 0:23:55.800
<v Speaker 2>thirty two. They all everything hit. The offer hit last week,

0:23:55.880 --> 0:23:58.199
<v Speaker 2>the third or fourth offered hit. A lot of them

0:23:58.200 --> 0:24:01.640
<v Speaker 2>have hit. All right. We have a massive slate this weekend.

0:24:01.960 --> 0:24:04.600
<v Speaker 2>We haven't in stay aways, be careful's in perfectly priced.

0:24:04.960 --> 0:24:07.800
<v Speaker 2>I'm gonna go through all of these. I'm gonna spend

0:24:07.880 --> 0:24:11.359
<v Speaker 2>less time on why they're in each category for certain games,

0:24:11.359 --> 0:24:13.480
<v Speaker 2>and more time on the actual game because we have

0:24:13.520 --> 0:24:15.879
<v Speaker 2>so many interesting games. We do that next What's Right

0:24:15.920 --> 0:24:17.200
<v Speaker 2>Week seventeen Gambling Show.

0:24:24.400 --> 0:24:27.199
<v Speaker 4>This episode is brought to you by Unstoppable. Discover the

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<v Speaker 2>All right, welcome back in week seventeen. What's Right NFL

0:24:55.920 --> 0:24:59.919
<v Speaker 2>Gambling Show. Here's our stay away category. There's four games.

0:25:00.160 --> 0:25:02.760
<v Speaker 2>Some of these are super interesting games. The games are

0:25:02.800 --> 0:25:06.800
<v Speaker 2>Cleveland at Washington, New Orleans at Philly, Jacksonville at Houston,

0:25:06.880 --> 0:25:10.359
<v Speaker 2>and Denver at Kansas City. So Cleveland at Washington is

0:25:10.359 --> 0:25:12.959
<v Speaker 2>a stay away for a couple of reasons. One is

0:25:15.280 --> 0:25:20.360
<v Speaker 2>the Washington football team on the cusp of the postseason.

0:25:21.080 --> 0:25:27.040
<v Speaker 2>Switching to Carson Wentz is a very curious decision. Now, listen, Taylor,

0:25:27.119 --> 0:25:30.760
<v Speaker 2>Heineke's been bad, and I totally understand that, But then

0:25:30.840 --> 0:25:34.080
<v Speaker 2>making a quarterback change at this moment for a guy

0:25:34.080 --> 0:25:37.040
<v Speaker 2>who last year melted down at the end of the

0:25:37.080 --> 0:25:40.399
<v Speaker 2>season for the Colts and cost them what should have

0:25:40.400 --> 0:25:43.399
<v Speaker 2>been a lot for the playoffs is odd. I'm staying

0:25:43.400 --> 0:25:49.359
<v Speaker 2>away from it, however, because I to me, Deshaun Watson

0:25:49.440 --> 0:25:53.080
<v Speaker 2>right now, just from a football perspective, is one of

0:25:53.080 --> 0:25:56.240
<v Speaker 2>the most curious players in the league. He's been terrible,

0:25:57.040 --> 0:26:01.000
<v Speaker 2>really terrible in every game he's played it with the Browns.

0:26:01.560 --> 0:26:04.600
<v Speaker 2>It's hard to believe he's just now this bad.

0:26:05.080 --> 0:26:07.720
<v Speaker 3>You're scared he's gonna turn it off at some point.

0:26:07.880 --> 0:26:10.840
<v Speaker 2>You've gotta think the rust is gonna come off now.

0:26:10.840 --> 0:26:15.639
<v Speaker 2>Maybe the two years out of football and everything that, uh,

0:26:15.880 --> 0:26:19.840
<v Speaker 2>you know, he put himself through this offseason, maybe it's

0:26:19.880 --> 0:26:22.560
<v Speaker 2>too much for him. But that's just stay away. The

0:26:22.960 --> 0:26:25.800
<v Speaker 2>two quarterbacks are such big question marks. I'm not getting

0:26:25.880 --> 0:26:28.919
<v Speaker 2>enough points to love Cleveland there when Washington has to

0:26:28.920 --> 0:26:31.639
<v Speaker 2>have the game. So I'm staying away. New Orleans at

0:26:31.680 --> 0:26:35.720
<v Speaker 2>Philly is to stay away because of the unknown that

0:26:36.160 --> 0:26:40.280
<v Speaker 2>Philly keeps being cagey, acting like Jalen Hurts might play.

0:26:40.800 --> 0:26:44.680
<v Speaker 2>I don't know enough about the quarterback spot. Also, Philly,

0:26:44.920 --> 0:26:47.200
<v Speaker 2>I want to see how they look without Wayne Johnson

0:26:47.640 --> 0:26:53.000
<v Speaker 2>New Orleans. Technically, I'm still alive for the playoffs, but

0:26:53.119 --> 0:26:57.560
<v Speaker 2>not really the six and a half. It's too much

0:26:57.680 --> 0:27:00.840
<v Speaker 2>unknown for the Philly quarterback situation for me want to

0:27:00.880 --> 0:27:02.879
<v Speaker 2>have anything to do. So even if Jalen.

0:27:02.640 --> 0:27:05.520
<v Speaker 3>Hurts isn't playing, Minsho just went toe to toe with

0:27:05.560 --> 0:27:08.479
<v Speaker 3>the Cowboys and had a pretty decent game. Yep, And

0:27:08.520 --> 0:27:10.480
<v Speaker 3>he's not even getting a full touchdown at home against

0:27:10.520 --> 0:27:10.960
<v Speaker 3>the Saints.

0:27:11.040 --> 0:27:14.640
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, it's also just a weird spot for Philly, which

0:27:14.680 --> 0:27:20.560
<v Speaker 2>is they they probably need to win one more game

0:27:20.960 --> 0:27:23.960
<v Speaker 2>to lock up the one seed, but they know if

0:27:23.960 --> 0:27:26.959
<v Speaker 2>they win, they don't have to win both. So are

0:27:27.000 --> 0:27:29.720
<v Speaker 2>they going to be super cautious with the injuries this week?

0:27:30.040 --> 0:27:32.520
<v Speaker 2>Try to play every one in Week eighteen? Just too

0:27:32.600 --> 0:27:35.280
<v Speaker 2>many unknowns. Maybe this is a game you can bet

0:27:35.359 --> 0:27:39.600
<v Speaker 2>Sunday morning as we record this on Thursday. Not enough

0:27:39.640 --> 0:27:44.919
<v Speaker 2>information for me. I'm staying away. Jacksonville at Houston, So Houston,

0:27:45.840 --> 0:27:50.240
<v Speaker 2>it's Jacksonville's laying four and a half. Houston shouldn't want

0:27:50.280 --> 0:27:53.639
<v Speaker 2>to win this game because since they won last week,

0:27:53.880 --> 0:27:56.119
<v Speaker 2>the number one pick is now in jeopardy. If they

0:27:56.119 --> 0:27:58.680
<v Speaker 2>win one more, Chicago could take it from him. If

0:27:58.760 --> 0:28:04.879
<v Speaker 2>Chicago lose out and Houston wins one more. Also, Jacksonville's

0:28:04.880 --> 0:28:08.760
<v Speaker 2>in a really weird spot because no matter what happens

0:28:08.800 --> 0:28:14.040
<v Speaker 2>this week, Jacksonville wins or loses the division based on

0:28:14.080 --> 0:28:17.280
<v Speaker 2>their Week eighteen game against Tennessee. Even if they win

0:28:17.359 --> 0:28:20.960
<v Speaker 2>this week and Tennessee loses this week, it's meaningless. If

0:28:21.000 --> 0:28:24.199
<v Speaker 2>they lose this week and Tennessee wins this week it's meaningless.

0:28:24.760 --> 0:28:28.680
<v Speaker 2>So both of Tennessee and Jacksonville are playing semi meaningless

0:28:28.720 --> 0:28:31.640
<v Speaker 2>games this week because the division is gonna come down

0:28:31.920 --> 0:28:34.960
<v Speaker 2>to Week eighteen. The only way this week matters is

0:28:35.000 --> 0:28:38.320
<v Speaker 2>if Tennessee Jacksonville in week eighteen is a tie, then

0:28:38.320 --> 0:28:40.760
<v Speaker 2>what happens this week could matter. So that's not gonna happen.

0:28:41.360 --> 0:28:44.880
<v Speaker 2>So I don't know. I would imagine Jacksonville is gonna

0:28:44.880 --> 0:28:50.280
<v Speaker 2>be uber conservative in this game. Anyone who is potentially

0:28:51.360 --> 0:28:54.440
<v Speaker 2>dealing with a nagging anything is gonna sit out this week.

0:28:54.440 --> 0:28:58.000
<v Speaker 2>That's what Tennessee's already doing with their guys. So I

0:28:58.040 --> 0:29:00.000
<v Speaker 2>don't feel comfortable laying the four and a half point.

0:29:00.800 --> 0:29:02.440
<v Speaker 2>I also don't want to grab four and a half

0:29:02.480 --> 0:29:06.240
<v Speaker 2>points with Houston because Houston might have an edict from

0:29:06.360 --> 0:29:09.720
<v Speaker 2>management that we have to lose. We want Bryce Young,

0:29:09.800 --> 0:29:11.840
<v Speaker 2>we want the number one pick, we don't want to win.

0:29:12.360 --> 0:29:15.320
<v Speaker 2>And so now what will be very interesting if that

0:29:15.440 --> 0:29:17.760
<v Speaker 2>is the case, is Houston the final week of the

0:29:17.840 --> 0:29:21.640
<v Speaker 2>year plays Indy. So what happens when one team that's

0:29:21.640 --> 0:29:24.560
<v Speaker 2>trying to lose plays one team that's coached by Jeff Saturday.

0:29:24.760 --> 0:29:28.080
<v Speaker 2>Who knows? It could be total Mayhem. But so to

0:29:28.160 --> 0:29:30.240
<v Speaker 2>me that to stay away in that spot.

0:29:30.320 --> 0:29:33.200
<v Speaker 3>So you've picked the prince that was promised time and

0:29:33.280 --> 0:29:36.320
<v Speaker 3>time after again. You're one and six against the well,

0:29:36.360 --> 0:29:38.480
<v Speaker 3>they're one and six against the spread when you pick them.

0:29:38.520 --> 0:29:41.640
<v Speaker 3>I know now that Trevor Lawrence is dealing. You want

0:29:41.640 --> 0:29:43.200
<v Speaker 3>to stay away from him, and you don't think that

0:29:43.240 --> 0:29:46.200
<v Speaker 3>he can snap his Textans. His Texans losing streak.

0:29:46.200 --> 0:29:48.560
<v Speaker 2>The four and a half is weird to me. I'm

0:29:48.640 --> 0:29:51.680
<v Speaker 2>just I don't know how much Jacksonville is gonna take

0:29:51.720 --> 0:29:55.200
<v Speaker 2>this game. Seriously. This is again a Sunday. What if

0:29:55.240 --> 0:29:58.920
<v Speaker 2>they all of a sudden have ten guys that were

0:29:59.160 --> 0:30:02.680
<v Speaker 2>questionable that are aren't gonna play because they need to

0:30:02.720 --> 0:30:05.800
<v Speaker 2>be healthy going into Week eighteen against Tennessee. So I'm

0:30:05.840 --> 0:30:09.440
<v Speaker 2>just staying away. Last one's Denver at Kansas City. So

0:30:09.520 --> 0:30:14.080
<v Speaker 2>Kansady has not been great at covering huge numbers. Furthermore,

0:30:14.720 --> 0:30:20.680
<v Speaker 2>there is always no that is true, but I shouldn't

0:30:20.680 --> 0:30:25.720
<v Speaker 2>say always. There is always the possibility of the fired

0:30:25.840 --> 0:30:31.240
<v Speaker 2>coach bounce that the team for a week gets invigorated

0:30:31.640 --> 0:30:36.520
<v Speaker 2>because the coach got fired. Now, I don't think that's

0:30:36.560 --> 0:30:39.240
<v Speaker 2>gonna happen with Denver because Russ is still there, and

0:30:39.320 --> 0:30:43.200
<v Speaker 2>I think the frustrations towards Russ and not to hack

0:30:43.280 --> 0:30:45.280
<v Speaker 2>it as much, but I'm staying away from it.

0:30:45.600 --> 0:30:47.760
<v Speaker 3>Exactly what is just I mean, this isn't about the

0:30:47.800 --> 0:30:50.680
<v Speaker 3>bet or anything, but exactly what you just said about

0:30:50.720 --> 0:30:53.920
<v Speaker 3>the fired coach bounce back is exactly what happens to

0:30:53.960 --> 0:30:56.720
<v Speaker 3>me when I like play Madden and that pisses me

0:30:56.800 --> 0:30:58.680
<v Speaker 3>off and I get smacked and I get off of it.

0:30:59.080 --> 0:31:00.800
<v Speaker 3>Then I get back on it, like a couple days

0:31:00.840 --> 0:31:03.000
<v Speaker 3>later or something, and then I just spank somebody.

0:31:03.520 --> 0:31:05.480
<v Speaker 2>I don't think that's the exact same thing, but I

0:31:05.480 --> 0:31:06.280
<v Speaker 2>think it is the same thing.

0:31:06.280 --> 0:31:08.520
<v Speaker 3>I think that's like like I'm firing myself. I gotta

0:31:08.560 --> 0:31:09.040
<v Speaker 3>get off the game.

0:31:09.200 --> 0:31:12.320
<v Speaker 2>Oh, I get it yourself to come back. I get it.

0:31:12.320 --> 0:31:15.320
<v Speaker 2>All right, there you go. All right, be careful. Category

0:31:16.520 --> 0:31:21.880
<v Speaker 2>three games Pittsburgh at Baltimore, Chicago at Detroit, Indie at

0:31:21.880 --> 0:31:26.120
<v Speaker 2>the Giants. All Right, we're being careful with Pittsburgh at

0:31:26.120 --> 0:31:33.760
<v Speaker 2>Baltimore because it seems like they're daring you to bet

0:31:33.800 --> 0:31:36.560
<v Speaker 2>Baltimore because you don't have to lay the full three

0:31:38.840 --> 0:31:43.120
<v Speaker 2>the two and a half points. Seems like they're like,

0:31:43.160 --> 0:31:46.440
<v Speaker 2>why don't you just take Baltimore. They need the game. Pittsburgh.

0:31:46.480 --> 0:31:49.239
<v Speaker 2>I understand they're still technically alive for the playoffs, but

0:31:49.280 --> 0:31:54.080
<v Speaker 2>not really. Pittsburgh last week needed, uh, you know, an

0:31:54.440 --> 0:31:58.240
<v Speaker 2>end of game miracle to beat the Raiders. Now they're

0:31:58.760 --> 0:32:02.600
<v Speaker 2>in Baltimore and they're only getting two and a half points.

0:32:02.800 --> 0:32:05.840
<v Speaker 2>I almost included Pittsburgh and the picks because this seems

0:32:05.880 --> 0:32:10.360
<v Speaker 2>so fishy. Baltimore also the question they need to get

0:32:10.440 --> 0:32:13.440
<v Speaker 2>Lamar back at some point before the postseason, and if

0:32:13.440 --> 0:32:16.600
<v Speaker 2>they do, they could be dangerous. To me, this is

0:32:16.680 --> 0:32:20.680
<v Speaker 2>a I think the vast majority of the public is

0:32:20.720 --> 0:32:23.680
<v Speaker 2>going to be on Baltimore because it's not the full three,

0:32:23.800 --> 0:32:25.040
<v Speaker 2>so I'm staying away from it.

0:32:25.200 --> 0:32:28.240
<v Speaker 3>And also along with that, the Ravens have lost only

0:32:28.320 --> 0:32:31.160
<v Speaker 3>one game against the spread in December versus Tomlin in

0:32:31.160 --> 0:32:33.440
<v Speaker 3>the last decade. Seems like some free money.

0:32:33.480 --> 0:32:36.360
<v Speaker 2>See there you go. That's what I'm saying, Like I

0:32:36.520 --> 0:32:38.720
<v Speaker 2>everyone's going to be on Baltimore. I'm not going to

0:32:38.760 --> 0:32:43.880
<v Speaker 2>be part of everyone. Chicago at Detroit. Detroit has to

0:32:43.920 --> 0:32:48.120
<v Speaker 2>have the game, Detroit is in position to make the postseason.

0:32:48.720 --> 0:32:52.360
<v Speaker 2>Chicago keeps getting blown out by people. Why is this

0:32:52.560 --> 0:32:58.880
<v Speaker 2>not seven? Why is it Detroit minus just six when

0:32:59.520 --> 0:33:03.360
<v Speaker 2>Chicago Those defense has been this terrible, Detroit at home,

0:33:03.480 --> 0:33:07.160
<v Speaker 2>that offense has been excellent. They need the game. Detroit

0:33:07.200 --> 0:33:11.040
<v Speaker 2>got embarrassed last week, so they're extra motivated they can

0:33:11.080 --> 0:33:13.640
<v Speaker 2>sneak into the playoffs. Feels like a trap.

0:33:13.920 --> 0:33:16.840
<v Speaker 3>Justin feels gonna have a field day. That's what they're saying. Well,

0:33:16.960 --> 0:33:18.120
<v Speaker 3>the only thing they could be saying.

0:33:18.160 --> 0:33:21.160
<v Speaker 2>Here's the thing about that. I think the public is

0:33:21.200 --> 0:33:24.760
<v Speaker 2>going to be all over Detroit because they are laying

0:33:24.880 --> 0:33:29.840
<v Speaker 2>less than a touchdown. I think Detroit wins, but that line.

0:33:30.960 --> 0:33:34.080
<v Speaker 2>I know this sounds dumb and it's not really accurate,

0:33:34.160 --> 0:33:36.680
<v Speaker 2>but I would almost feel better about it if it

0:33:36.720 --> 0:33:40.680
<v Speaker 2>were Detroit minus seven. Because it's Detroit minus six, it

0:33:40.720 --> 0:33:44.120
<v Speaker 2>feels like a Vegas trap. We're staying away. And lastly,

0:33:44.280 --> 0:33:47.600
<v Speaker 2>India the Giants a lot of the exact same logic there.

0:33:48.440 --> 0:33:52.760
<v Speaker 2>These are two teams that gotta win, Giants win, and

0:33:52.800 --> 0:33:55.720
<v Speaker 2>they're in the playoffs. They're playing two awful teams that

0:33:55.760 --> 0:34:00.480
<v Speaker 2>are on long losing streaks. Why are they not laying

0:34:00.520 --> 0:34:04.920
<v Speaker 2>the full seven? These are potential playoff teams at home

0:34:05.360 --> 0:34:08.720
<v Speaker 2>and gotta have it games. Why are they not laying

0:34:08.800 --> 0:34:12.720
<v Speaker 2>the full seven because for the Giants, the Giants should

0:34:12.800 --> 0:34:16.160
<v Speaker 2>make the playoffs. But if they lose this week, next

0:34:16.200 --> 0:34:21.120
<v Speaker 2>week they have Philly, and so are the it is

0:34:21.520 --> 0:34:24.040
<v Speaker 2>they do have Philly next week, right, I know it's

0:34:24.080 --> 0:34:27.000
<v Speaker 2>a divisional game. I'm almost certain it's Giants Philly in

0:34:27.040 --> 0:34:30.080
<v Speaker 2>week eighteen. Yet it is. And so the Giants know

0:34:30.560 --> 0:34:34.319
<v Speaker 2>that this is our spot to lock into the playoffs

0:34:34.640 --> 0:34:38.120
<v Speaker 2>and they could potentially give themselves a mini buy if

0:34:38.120 --> 0:34:40.600
<v Speaker 2>they don't care about their playoff seed. They just win

0:34:40.680 --> 0:34:43.279
<v Speaker 2>this week, We're locked into the playoffs, can rest in

0:34:43.320 --> 0:34:48.680
<v Speaker 2>week eighteen. It feels trappy, So we're we're staying away.

0:34:48.760 --> 0:34:52.920
<v Speaker 2>And now lastly, Gabe's saying we need a new category.

0:34:53.000 --> 0:34:55.959
<v Speaker 2>Nick overthinks, all right, let's just watch make a little

0:34:56.000 --> 0:34:59.400
<v Speaker 2>note of this that Nick says the public is going

0:34:59.440 --> 0:35:02.000
<v Speaker 2>to be on to Troy and the Giants and the

0:35:02.040 --> 0:35:04.760
<v Speaker 2>line should be seven in their six. And it feels trappy.

0:35:04.800 --> 0:35:07.960
<v Speaker 2>And let's see what happened in those games, all right, Last,

0:35:08.320 --> 0:35:13.280
<v Speaker 2>perfectly priced Carolina at Tampa. Tampa will play a bad

0:35:13.320 --> 0:35:16.160
<v Speaker 2>football game. It will be an ugly football game, and

0:35:16.239 --> 0:35:19.040
<v Speaker 2>they will win by a field goal. They'll force Sam

0:35:19.120 --> 0:35:22.000
<v Speaker 2>Darnold into a bad turnover. They'll win by a field goal.

0:35:22.080 --> 0:35:27.520
<v Speaker 2>It's perfectly priced. Jets at Seahawks. The Jets with Mike

0:35:27.600 --> 0:35:32.920
<v Speaker 2>White are a good team. The Seahawks look totally incompetent

0:35:32.960 --> 0:35:37.319
<v Speaker 2>against Kansas City. If it wasn't and I know you

0:35:37.360 --> 0:35:39.960
<v Speaker 2>don't care about travel the way I do, if it

0:35:40.000 --> 0:35:42.719
<v Speaker 2>wasn't the Jets having to go all the way to Seattle,

0:35:43.040 --> 0:35:45.200
<v Speaker 2>it would be Jets probably minus two and a half

0:35:45.320 --> 0:35:48.880
<v Speaker 2>or minus three. Instead, it's Jets minus one and a half.

0:35:49.080 --> 0:35:51.680
<v Speaker 2>That to me is exactly right. I could see Seattle

0:35:51.719 --> 0:35:54.800
<v Speaker 2>winning this game at home. The Jets should win this game.

0:35:55.080 --> 0:35:57.560
<v Speaker 2>It's kind of an elimination game for either of these

0:35:57.600 --> 0:36:01.000
<v Speaker 2>teams playoff wise. That the line is exactly right in my.

0:36:01.000 --> 0:36:04.000
<v Speaker 3>Mind, Seahawks being home dogs versus the Jets is kind

0:36:04.000 --> 0:36:06.480
<v Speaker 3>of crazy. So we're saying that Mike White is here

0:36:06.600 --> 0:36:08.040
<v Speaker 3>now and Gino is right here.

0:36:08.080 --> 0:36:10.960
<v Speaker 2>Well, I think the Jets overall rosters better. I like

0:36:11.040 --> 0:36:13.719
<v Speaker 2>the Jets roster, and the Jets next year with Derek

0:36:13.760 --> 0:36:16.600
<v Speaker 2>Carr are going to be dangerous. I think Derek Carr

0:36:16.600 --> 0:36:18.520
<v Speaker 2>is gonna go to the Jets. I think they're gonna

0:36:19.239 --> 0:36:20.920
<v Speaker 2>paying a lot of money is gonna go to the Jets,

0:36:21.120 --> 0:36:24.840
<v Speaker 2>and then last one Rams at the Chargers. Chargers laying

0:36:24.960 --> 0:36:27.800
<v Speaker 2>six and a half. The Chargers in a weird spot

0:36:28.080 --> 0:36:31.120
<v Speaker 2>because they have locked up a playoff spot, but the

0:36:31.160 --> 0:36:34.840
<v Speaker 2>five seed is valuable because the five seed means you

0:36:34.920 --> 0:36:39.000
<v Speaker 2>go to Jacksonville in round one as opposed to playing Buffalo,

0:36:39.120 --> 0:36:42.440
<v Speaker 2>Cincinnati or Kansas City. Who would be the two of

0:36:42.480 --> 0:36:44.000
<v Speaker 2>those teams are gonna be the two and the three,

0:36:44.280 --> 0:36:47.080
<v Speaker 2>So the Chargers should take care of business. The Rams

0:36:47.080 --> 0:36:49.960
<v Speaker 2>are a little frisky with Baker a little bit. Six

0:36:49.960 --> 0:36:52.759
<v Speaker 2>and a half minus seven feels right. So there are

0:36:52.840 --> 0:36:55.399
<v Speaker 2>the games for this weekend. All right, we will give

0:36:55.400 --> 0:36:57.960
<v Speaker 2>you the right move. I already gave you guys the

0:36:58.040 --> 0:37:01.319
<v Speaker 2>offer thirty two to one, already locked in. We'll do

0:37:01.400 --> 0:37:04.640
<v Speaker 2>all that. Wrap up the show. Week seventeen Gambling Show

0:37:04.680 --> 0:37:13.320
<v Speaker 2>Next What's right? All right? Welcome back in Week seventeen

0:37:13.400 --> 0:37:16.759
<v Speaker 2>Gambling Show. Our five picks this week Miami plus two

0:37:16.760 --> 0:37:19.360
<v Speaker 2>and a half at New England, Arizona plus three and

0:37:19.400 --> 0:37:24.200
<v Speaker 2>a half at Atlanta, San Francisco minus ten at Vegas, Minnesota,

0:37:24.239 --> 0:37:27.080
<v Speaker 2>plus three and a half at Green Bay and Cincinnati

0:37:27.160 --> 0:37:31.440
<v Speaker 2>plus one against Buffalo. Our lock of the week. The

0:37:31.520 --> 0:37:35.680
<v Speaker 2>right move is Miami getting points in New England. Miami

0:37:35.719 --> 0:37:38.760
<v Speaker 2>and Teddy Bridgewater are going to lock up a playoff spot,

0:37:39.040 --> 0:37:43.120
<v Speaker 2>eliminate New England and end everything for that the AFC.

0:37:43.280 --> 0:37:45.600
<v Speaker 2>I guess it won't technically end everything to the AFC

0:37:45.640 --> 0:37:48.120
<v Speaker 2>seven seed. I don't think they officially clinched with a

0:37:48.120 --> 0:37:51.040
<v Speaker 2>win this week, but they they actually might clinch with

0:37:51.080 --> 0:37:53.040
<v Speaker 2>a win this week. They definitely clinched with a win

0:37:53.120 --> 0:37:56.319
<v Speaker 2>this week if other things happen. You know what, let

0:37:56.400 --> 0:37:58.080
<v Speaker 2>me I want to get this exactly right. I don't

0:37:58.080 --> 0:38:00.520
<v Speaker 2>want to give the audience bad information. Let me just

0:38:00.520 --> 0:38:04.080
<v Speaker 2>go ahead and check. Either way, that's our pick. But Miami,

0:38:04.280 --> 0:38:07.320
<v Speaker 2>if they win this week, is it one hundred percent

0:38:07.400 --> 0:38:09.680
<v Speaker 2>lock during the playoffs, No, they need a cut. I

0:38:09.719 --> 0:38:12.319
<v Speaker 2>think they need the Jets to lose as well and

0:38:12.360 --> 0:38:15.000
<v Speaker 2>they be called one hundred percent lock to make the playoffs.

0:38:15.080 --> 0:38:15.920
<v Speaker 2>Let me see if that's right.

0:38:16.280 --> 0:38:16.480
<v Speaker 1>Yep.

0:38:16.560 --> 0:38:19.480
<v Speaker 2>If Miami wins and the Jets lose, Miami's lock for

0:38:19.560 --> 0:38:22.600
<v Speaker 2>the playoffs. If Miami wins and the Jets win, the

0:38:22.640 --> 0:38:26.680
<v Speaker 2>winner of Jets Miami in Week eighteen goes to the playoffs.

0:38:26.840 --> 0:38:30.960
<v Speaker 2>So either way, Miami gets this win, they eliminate the Patriots.

0:38:31.160 --> 0:38:33.560
<v Speaker 2>That's our right move. We do not have a teaser

0:38:33.640 --> 0:38:36.360
<v Speaker 2>for you this week. They are not great teaser lines

0:38:36.400 --> 0:38:40.400
<v Speaker 2>this week. We don't love any of them. Our exotic

0:38:40.480 --> 0:38:45.520
<v Speaker 2>of the week, however, that I'm giving you is Miami

0:38:45.600 --> 0:38:48.320
<v Speaker 2>on the money line, Arizona plus three and a half,

0:38:48.520 --> 0:38:51.880
<v Speaker 2>San Francisco minus ten, Minnesota plus three and a half,

0:38:52.040 --> 0:38:54.799
<v Speaker 2>and Cincinnati on the money line. It pays thirty two

0:38:54.800 --> 0:38:57.799
<v Speaker 2>to one. Demons, you have an offer for me that

0:38:57.880 --> 0:38:59.520
<v Speaker 2>you would like to make. Go right ahead.

0:39:00.080 --> 0:39:01.240
<v Speaker 3>The Dolphins on the graphic.

0:39:01.560 --> 0:39:03.319
<v Speaker 2>Oh I didn't even see that. Oh they put they

0:39:03.360 --> 0:39:05.760
<v Speaker 2>added all our picks there. I like that. That's cool.

0:39:05.920 --> 0:39:06.280
<v Speaker 2>Go ahead.

0:39:06.280 --> 0:39:08.439
<v Speaker 3>The Chiefs are playing the Broncos, and I'm pretty sure

0:39:08.440 --> 0:39:11.799
<v Speaker 3>Mahlmes is about to put on a show. So how

0:39:11.840 --> 0:39:15.200
<v Speaker 3>about Mahomes to be the first touchdown score and Mahomes

0:39:15.280 --> 0:39:16.800
<v Speaker 3>to be the last touchdown score?

0:39:16.920 --> 0:39:18.360
<v Speaker 2>Okay, I hate this bet.

0:39:20.120 --> 0:39:24.719
<v Speaker 3>All in all plus twenty five to twenty five.

0:39:24.360 --> 0:39:29.160
<v Speaker 2>Two hundred fifty five to one. So I wouldn't hate

0:39:29.280 --> 0:39:33.520
<v Speaker 2>that bet if they were playing a better team against

0:39:33.560 --> 0:39:37.680
<v Speaker 2>the Broncos, Mahomes is gonna run the ball almost none.

0:39:37.800 --> 0:39:40.240
<v Speaker 2>I think it's just gonna try to stay healthy going

0:39:40.280 --> 0:39:44.360
<v Speaker 2>into the postseason. I'm gonna give you one little gambling

0:39:44.360 --> 0:39:49.360
<v Speaker 2>note here, that same guy being the first and last

0:39:49.400 --> 0:39:56.359
<v Speaker 2>touchdown scorer. The people I think think of it as

0:39:56.400 --> 0:39:59.520
<v Speaker 2>a bet that you would make in like, oh, this

0:39:59.520 --> 0:40:02.680
<v Speaker 2>guy's gonna score a bunch of touchdowns. That's not the

0:40:02.719 --> 0:40:05.879
<v Speaker 2>way to win that specific type of bet. The way

0:40:05.920 --> 0:40:09.239
<v Speaker 2>to win that specific type of bet is finding any

0:40:09.360 --> 0:40:14.399
<v Speaker 2>time saying no is to find a bad weather, low

0:40:14.600 --> 0:40:18.120
<v Speaker 2>scoring type of game where you think there's only gonna

0:40:18.160 --> 0:40:21.360
<v Speaker 2>be one touchdown scored the whole game, because then the

0:40:21.360 --> 0:40:23.360
<v Speaker 2>guy who scores the first is the guy who scores

0:40:23.400 --> 0:40:26.120
<v Speaker 2>the last. So a game that you think is gonna

0:40:26.160 --> 0:40:30.839
<v Speaker 2>be twelve to ten and trying to nail who that

0:40:31.000 --> 0:40:34.439
<v Speaker 2>one touchdown scorer is not a game that you think

0:40:34.480 --> 0:40:36.680
<v Speaker 2>is gonna have a bunch of touchdowns and you're just

0:40:36.719 --> 0:40:41.040
<v Speaker 2>gonna hit the exact again, a guy to scored the

0:40:41.080 --> 0:40:44.520
<v Speaker 2>first and last touchdowns incredibly difficult bet to hit. But

0:40:44.680 --> 0:40:47.480
<v Speaker 2>the through line to hit it is if you think

0:40:47.480 --> 0:40:49.520
<v Speaker 2>there's only gonna be one touchdown score in the game,

0:40:50.440 --> 0:40:52.480
<v Speaker 2>and then the guy who scores the first is the

0:40:52.480 --> 0:40:54.880
<v Speaker 2>guy who scores the last. That's the way to do it.

0:40:55.080 --> 0:40:57.840
<v Speaker 2>I'm not taking your offer. I like my offer better

0:40:57.920 --> 0:41:00.399
<v Speaker 2>at thirty two and a half to one was we're

0:41:00.440 --> 0:41:02.560
<v Speaker 2>gonna hit that and then we're gonna hit our fifty

0:41:02.560 --> 0:41:06.560
<v Speaker 2>to one preseason Chiefs Niners, super Bowl. Bet we're gonna

0:41:06.560 --> 0:41:08.839
<v Speaker 2>be rolling in money five and Oero week on deck.

0:41:08.960 --> 0:41:11.439
<v Speaker 2>We'll talk to you guys on Monday. Sorry, by the way,

0:41:11.680 --> 0:41:14.719
<v Speaker 2>that we didn't ever show this past Monday. I had

0:41:14.719 --> 0:41:20.040
<v Speaker 2>to fill in for Colin Television obligations took precedent. My apologies.

0:41:20.040 --> 0:41:22.160
<v Speaker 2>We'll be back on Monday no matter what. Talk to

0:41:22.160 --> 0:43:57.120
<v Speaker 2>you guys then. Happy New Year. Hey, it's Niggart. Thank

0:43:57.160 --> 0:43:59.640
<v Speaker 2>you so much for watching. Please do us a favorite.

0:44:00.000 --> 0:44:03.239
<v Speaker 2>Click subscribe. It helps my ego and Demansey's got a

0:44:03.280 --> 0:44:06.600
<v Speaker 2>financial bonus writing on a number of YouTube subscribers, so

0:44:06.719 --> 0:44:09.120
<v Speaker 2>help him out. And also click the bell. I don't

0:44:09.160 --> 0:44:10.560
<v Speaker 2>know what the bell does, but they tell me to

0:44:10.600 --> 0:44:13.560
<v Speaker 2>tell you to click the bell. And your audio listeners,

0:44:13.680 --> 0:44:16.759
<v Speaker 2>people that have commute strives, whatever it is, subscribe to

0:44:16.800 --> 0:44:20.279
<v Speaker 2>the podcast as well. Wherever you get the podcast, same show,

0:44:20.600 --> 0:44:22.440
<v Speaker 2>just you know, just in your ears instead of through

0:44:22.480 --> 0:44:24.480
<v Speaker 2>your eyes. All that. Check it out appreciate show,