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Speaker 2: Welcome in episode one eleven, Week seventeen NFL Gambling Show.
Speaker 2: And if I sound a little sad because we were
Speaker 2: so close to digging ourselves out of our season long
Speaker 2: hold and then a week of you know what, I'm
Speaker 2: gonna go ahead and say it. I think they were
Speaker 2: all great picks. I do, I think, and I think
Speaker 2: I can prove it to you. That's somehow despite going
Speaker 2: one in four last week. I think the process was sound,
Speaker 2: I think the logic was sound. I think we got
Speaker 2: a little unlucky in some spots. So let's show you
Speaker 2: last week if we could. It's a one and four
Speaker 2: week and no they We're now six games under five
Speaker 2: hundred on the season. So let's go through these five games.
Speaker 2: Giants plus four, they lose by three on a sixty
Speaker 2: one yard field goal. We cover, feeling good. Cleveland minus
Speaker 2: ten or minus three? Pardon me? They were up ten
Speaker 2: to nothing in the coldest NFL game in years, playing
Speaker 2: a New Orleans team with an Andy Dalton Taysom Hill quarterback. Combo,
Speaker 2: They're up ten to nothing at what moment in the game,
Speaker 2: with four minutes left in the second quarter, I'm laying three.
Speaker 2: They then let those dufuses in New Orleans score seventeen
Speaker 2: consecutive points and they don't score again, so they don't cover. Fine,
Speaker 2: so be it. It happens. Also, at some point there
Speaker 2: might need to be a Deshaun Watson conversation had because
Speaker 2: he once again the gas is terrible. Yeah, Vegas plus
Speaker 2: two and a half at Pittsburgh. How's Vegas doing on
Speaker 2: Christmas Eve night? Well, they're ahead ten to three, then
Speaker 2: they're ahead ten to six with a minute left in
Speaker 2: the game. I'm getting two and a half points. So
Speaker 2: they of course allow a touchdown to lose by three.
Speaker 2: After covering the entire game, I'm getting two and a half.
Speaker 2: They were covering for fifty nine minutes and forty six
Speaker 2: seconds of that football game didn't matter. They end up
Speaker 2: losing by three Miami minus four. Well, they lose that
Speaker 2: game out right, Nick, How can you feel good about that? Well,
Speaker 2: they're up twenty to ten in that game, and then
Speaker 2: Tua gets concussed. But no one knows he got concussed
Speaker 2: until you saw him play in the fourth quarter when
Speaker 2: he threw three picks, and all of a sudden, they
Speaker 2: lose that game out right by six minutes. And then, lastly,
Speaker 2: the one that you're gonna say is the least defensible
Speaker 2: Chicago plus eight and a half against Buffalo, Nick, the Bills.
Speaker 2: The Bills won by what they win by twenty one.
Speaker 2: In that game, they won by twenty two. The Bears
Speaker 2: were ahead at halftime. I'm catching eight and a half.
Speaker 2: They're up ten to six at half time. They are
Speaker 2: down eight with four minutes left. I'm getting eight and
Speaker 2: a half. They lose the game by twenty two. Thames.
Speaker 2: By the way, I also had them in a teaser,
Speaker 2: getting them in the Demonse Bird Special ten point teaser
Speaker 2: to plus eighteen and a half, and they of course,
Speaker 2: somehow to not cover the eighteen and a half despite
Speaker 2: being down by eight with four minutes left in a
Speaker 2: game they led it half to So that's how you
Speaker 2: go one in four America. We're not proud of it.
Speaker 2: We're not happy with it. We're six games under five hundred.
Speaker 2: We have never finished in NFL regular season below five hundred.
Speaker 2: So that means this week we need to go four
Speaker 2: and one at a minimum in order to make it
Speaker 2: to war four and one. Four and one we finish
Speaker 2: at five hundred. The other is in week eighteen. If
Speaker 2: we just want to pick all sixteen games and try
Speaker 2: to run it up that way, that is a reckless thing. However,
Speaker 2: I would like to do one thing. I would as
Speaker 2: we are now approaching week eighteen or week seventeen, I
Speaker 2: would like to do one thing quickly before we get
Speaker 2: to our picks this week. Talk about our preseason bets.
Speaker 2: Baltimore over ten and a half. They're sitting at ten wins,
Speaker 2: one more win. They hit the over Indy over nine
Speaker 2: and a half, dead Jacksonville over six and a half,
Speaker 2: already cashed, Kansas City over ten and a half, already
Speaker 2: cashed New England under eight and a half looking great,
Speaker 2: they would have to win out for us to lose
Speaker 2: that bet. Giants under seven and a half dead, Sam, wait,
Speaker 2: is it dead? Yeah, it's dead? Or hold on, is
Speaker 2: the Giants bet dead? I think it is dead. Giants
Speaker 2: bet dead? I said over seven the Giants right now,
Speaker 2: yeah they have They're eight six and one though, So
Speaker 2: the Giants bets dead. San Francisco over nine and a
Speaker 2: half already cashed. Yeah, Tampa under eleven and a half
Speaker 2: already cashed. So that means we lost Indy and the
Speaker 2: Giants we have already won Jacksonville, Kansas City, San Francisco,
Speaker 2: and Tampa, and Baltimore needs to win one more so
Speaker 2: five and two on deck. There this bet here, which
Speaker 2: looked dead at one point. Seattle, the Jets, Atlanta, and
Speaker 2: New England all missed the playoffs. Seattle hanging on by
Speaker 2: a thread, at Lana Out the Jets hanging on by
Speaker 2: a thread. New England hanging on by a thread. So
Speaker 2: if Detroit or Washington get the final playoff spot in
Speaker 2: the NFC and in Miami can get it together the
Speaker 2: final playoffs without the AFC, we win. Cleveland misses the
Speaker 2: playoffs minus one seventy winner Denver misses the playoffs plus
Speaker 2: one twenty winner New England misses the playoffs minus one
Speaker 2: ninety eight. We'll see, but I feel good about it.
Speaker 2: And then if you and then I also had a
Speaker 2: division winner parlay, which isn't gonna hit because I had
Speaker 2: Indy right. But then, don't forget America the fifty to
Speaker 2: one that I gave out on our preseason gambling show
Speaker 2: super Bowl exacta Chiefs Niners don't need a winner in it.
Speaker 2: Just the Chiefs win the AFC Niners to win the NFC.
Speaker 2: So our preseason bets are super profitable. Our in season
Speaker 2: bets have been a disaster.
Speaker 3: So so basically, what you're saying is you're better at
Speaker 3: making bets with no data.
Speaker 2: Know that that was insulting. What I'm saying is my
Speaker 2: long term view of the season. Compiling all the offseason
Speaker 2: data was spot on. My preseason, my week to week
Speaker 2: view of the season. I've had some bad luck, but
Speaker 2: this week we turned that sucker around because I liked
Speaker 2: our bets. Last week I felt good about him. There
Speaker 2: was none of those bets. I'm like, what am I thinking?
Speaker 2: Watching those games? I felt good about him? Yeah, put
Speaker 2: that graphic up there. I was right along. That's correct.
Speaker 2: This week we start with an underdog that's gonna win outright,
Speaker 2: the Dolphins getting two and a half at New England.
Speaker 2: So here's the deal. I think Teddy Bridgewater is gonna
Speaker 2: be fine. So Teddy Bridgewater has not had a real
Speaker 2: opportunity yet with Miami. So here's been his three games
Speaker 2: he's played with Miami. He came in mid game for
Speaker 2: two when Tua got thrown to the turf against Cincinnati.
Speaker 2: The next week, he was the listed starter. He lasted
Speaker 2: less than one series. Then he got put in concussion
Speaker 2: protocol so he didn't play. He threw one pass. The
Speaker 2: next week, he was the backup to Skyler Thompson because
Speaker 2: he had been in concussion protocol all week. Skyler then
Speaker 2: got hurt. Teddy came in mid game, threw for three
Speaker 2: hundred yards now also threw a couple of picks, and
Speaker 2: they lost the game. But Teddy Bridgewater is yet to
Speaker 2: get a full week of practice as the one and
Speaker 2: get the full game. He's gonna get that this week.
Speaker 2: The Patriots stink their quarterbacks awful, and I think that
Speaker 2: in a weird way, with Tua struggling the way he
Speaker 2: has the last month, Teddy is a tougher matchup for
Speaker 2: the Belichick defense because I think Tua it was very
Speaker 2: clear some things you could do to disrupt him. And
Speaker 2: one other point that I don't think people fully consider
Speaker 2: as far as how specifically difficult it is for Miami
Speaker 2: to adjust on the fly to a quarterback change as
Speaker 2: opposed to having a full week to do it. They're
Speaker 2: starters left handed, so when Teddy came in mid game,
Speaker 2: you have to flip all your protections, you have to
Speaker 2: flip all your boot legs. You have to do everything
Speaker 2: in a mirror left to right. Now they have a
Speaker 2: full week practicing with it. Miami is gonna go to
Speaker 2: the playoffs. They're not going to go eight and three
Speaker 2: to out of the playoffs. They're gonna end New England season.
Speaker 2: They're catching points. They're gonna win out right. Miami plus
Speaker 2: two and a half love it.
Speaker 3: So you've made it obvious that you trust Teddy Bridgewater more.
Speaker 2: Than Mac Jones. Yes, no question, Oh yeah, no question.
Speaker 3: Be known. You were three and zero picking AFC East
Speaker 3: divisional games this year.
Speaker 2: I didn't know that, but I like that. It makes
Speaker 2: me feel good. I think a couple of those are
Speaker 2: fading the Bills when they were laying big numbers against
Speaker 2: the Dolphins of the jack Yeah, so Miami plus two
Speaker 2: and a half next one is an odd game to
Speaker 2: bet because this is a don't watch. This is a
Speaker 2: how there's sixteen games this weekend? How dare you have
Speaker 2: this on one of your screens? Arizona getting three and
Speaker 2: a half at Atlanta? This is very, very simple. Why
Speaker 2: I'm doing this. We're not gonnapend much time on it.
Speaker 2: Desmond Ridder should not be favored by more than a
Speaker 2: field goal against any team in the league. It's that simple.
Speaker 2: I don't care that Arizona is starting Trace McSorley, I
Speaker 2: don't Desmond Ridder. Have people watched Desmond Ridder? Have people
Speaker 2: watched Atlanta? My guess the answer to that is no,
Speaker 2: So Desmond Ridder. I just want to tell America what
Speaker 2: Desmond Ridder has done since he took over for Marcus Mariota.
Speaker 2: And then Mariota got very mad and left the team,
Speaker 2: which is evidently in vogue now because Carr left the
Speaker 2: Raiders after finding out he was being benched. So what's up.
Speaker 3: We've already spent too much time on Raiders Cardinals.
Speaker 2: Okay, we have not. I just want to tell America
Speaker 2: what Desmond Ritter has done in his two football games.
Speaker 2: He started against this or he played against the Saints.
Speaker 2: He threw the ball twenty six times for ninety seven yards,
Speaker 2: no touchdowns, no picks. He then played against Baltimore, he
Speaker 2: threw the ball thirty three times or two hundred and
Speaker 2: eighteen yards. Give him credit for that. That resulted in
Speaker 2: a grand total of nine points all field goals. He's
Speaker 2: yet to account for a touchdown while playing. He cannot
Speaker 2: be a three and a half point favor He just
Speaker 2: can't be. So we're taking the three and a half
Speaker 2: with trace McSorley and the sad sac Arizona Cardinals.
Speaker 3: So what these two quarterbacks that are playing in this game.
Speaker 3: You don't see this at all as being a stay
Speaker 3: away game. Well, I two terrible quarterbacks.
Speaker 2: Sometimes you put it in the stay away category, but
Speaker 2: not when you can get three and a half points.
Speaker 2: They're just giving me three and a half points. Why
Speaker 2: because Atlanta is gonna have some great home field advantage.
Speaker 2: They're eliminated from the playoffs. Nobody thinks they're good. They're
Speaker 2: not excited about anything. No, they're dead. They're officially eliminated.
Speaker 2: They're dead. No, Arizona plus three and a half is
Speaker 2: the play. Next, we're gonna lay a big number. San
Speaker 2: Francisco minus ten in Vegas. Big road number against Jared's
Speaker 2: Sidham is very simple. In order for San Francisco to
Speaker 2: cover ten points against the Jared Sidham Las Vegas Raiders,
Speaker 2: they need to score fourteen points. The Raiders are not
Speaker 2: scoring more than three points in this game. DeVante Adams
Speaker 2: is furious about the car situation. He's made that very
Speaker 2: clear this week. Josh Jacob is just devastated by what
Speaker 2: the team has done. And Jacobs is a pending free agent,
Speaker 2: and because he had such a bad game this past weekend,
Speaker 2: the kind of long shot of Kajosh Jacobs rush for
Speaker 2: two thousand yards. He went in this past week's game
Speaker 2: with fifteen hundred. So it's like, ah, have a buck
Speaker 2: fifty in each of the last two or it's the
Speaker 2: last week and this week going to the final week,
Speaker 2: be like, yeah, pop off a two hundred yard game,
Speaker 2: you have two thousand yards. No, he had fifty yards.
Speaker 2: So he's he's going to keep himself healthy. Devonte's upset
Speaker 2: they're going to Jared Stidam. They're playing for draft positioning.
Speaker 2: San Francisco, on the other hand, still faintly alive for
Speaker 2: the one seed, definitely alive for the two seed, which
Speaker 2: they really want. San Francisco is going to annihilate Jared's Stidham,
Speaker 2: who's not an NFL quarterback. San Francisco minus ten to
Speaker 2: play question.
Speaker 3: Yeah, this is one of those games since Derek Carr
Speaker 3: is being benched for Jared Stidham. Yeah, this is one
Speaker 3: of those situations where you bet where you wish you
Speaker 3: bet early in the week because it opened at minus
Speaker 3: seven and he went down to minus ten.
Speaker 2: Okay, yeah, I missed the opportunity online value. There's no
Speaker 2: question there. However, I think it is instructive that it
Speaker 2: only went from seven to ten. That's why I love it.
Speaker 2: Derek Carr might not be great, he is worth more
Speaker 2: than three points than Jared Stidham. Jared Stidham's not an
Speaker 2: NFL quarterback. He was drafted by the Patriots. I'm gonna
Speaker 2: pull up Jared Stidham's career numbers just so everyone understands
Speaker 2: what I'm talking about here. The Raiders, I think they
Speaker 2: are all in on either Brady or Garoppolo this offseason,
Speaker 2: reunite with Josh McDaniels, and they're moving on from Carr
Speaker 2: because they don't The reason they benched Car is they
Speaker 2: don't want him to get hurt, and then they're on
Speaker 2: the hook for his money. Jared Stidham in his career,
Speaker 2: has thrown the ball sixty one times. In those sixty
Speaker 2: one attempts, he has somehow managed to throw four interceptions.
Speaker 2: That's one interception every fifteen pass attempts for this guy.
Speaker 2: He's not an NFL player. He has thrown let mean,
Speaker 2: thirteen total passes in the last two seasons. He's up
Speaker 2: against the best defensive football all lay the ten points. Next,
Speaker 2: another underdog that I think is gonna win out right.
Speaker 2: Oh my god, I just dropping his computer. Minnesota plus
Speaker 2: three and a half at green Bay. Why is there
Speaker 2: all this steam on green Bay? Why is there so
Speaker 2: much belief in green Bay? On Nick? They're hot? Are they?
Speaker 2: They go ahead?
Speaker 3: Rogers undefeated in December?
Speaker 2: Okay, so let's talk about Okay, let's talk about Rogers
Speaker 2: in December, because this is what I keep hearing. Oh,
Speaker 2: green Bay is dangerous. Green Bay's hot streak is beating
Speaker 2: the Bears, who right now would have the second pick
Speaker 2: of the draft, beating the Rams, who would right now
Speaker 2: have the sixth pick of the draft, and beating the
Speaker 2: Dolphins in a game that Rogers didn't play that well
Speaker 2: that to a melted down in We now think in
Speaker 2: part because he had a concussion. Rogers in this three
Speaker 2: game winning streak is actually playing worse than he was
Speaker 2: playing in the previous dozen games. He has three touchdowns
Speaker 2: and two picks and an eighty five rating and averaging
Speaker 2: two hundred and ten yards per game. In this winning streak,
Speaker 2: Minnesota is still live for the one seed. They much
Speaker 2: like San Francisco, want to be the two seed if
Speaker 2: they can't get to the one. And you're giving me
Speaker 2: not You're not just giving me points, you're giving me
Speaker 2: more than a field goal. What's up.
Speaker 3: The Vikings are also zero and three against the spread
Speaker 3: in the last three games.
Speaker 2: Yeah, but that's so. Here's the thing. Let me double check.
Speaker 3: That Aaron Rodgers is gonna be playing with that chip
Speaker 3: on his shoulder. You know, he's got a chance. There's
Speaker 3: light at the end of the tunnel as far as
Speaker 3: the playoffs.
Speaker 2: So the Viking are zero and three against the spread,
Speaker 2: but only one of those games was a loss. They
Speaker 2: beat the Colts. They beat the Giants. Now, the Colts
Speaker 2: game was weird, they're down thirty three. Nothing came storing
Speaker 2: back Giants game they won by a field goal at
Speaker 2: the gun, getting three and a half. They're the better team.
Speaker 2: The backers have no way to guard Justin Jefferson. No way,
Speaker 2: is it? So you like Green Bay? It's gonna be wondering.
Speaker 3: I mean, what's what you just said. You said though
Speaker 3: those three games they only lost one game? Yea, none
Speaker 3: were losses. No, they lost to Troy one of them, right, Yeah,
Speaker 3: I mean, so what you're saying is you want them
Speaker 3: on the money line and not the minus three point
Speaker 3: five three.
Speaker 2: And a half. I'm getting played and a half. Sorry,
Speaker 2: that's why I'm getting three and a half in this spot.
Speaker 2: The Yeah, I wouldn't lay three and a half with Minnesota.
Speaker 2: All their games are field goal games. But I'm getting
Speaker 2: three and a half points. It's the right side. There
Speaker 2: is way too much optimism about the Packers, who are
Speaker 2: gonna lose this weekend and they're gonna realize they missed
Speaker 2: a golden opportunity to play Jordan Love and finally the
Speaker 2: aime of the year, I'm getting the better team at
Speaker 2: home and a point Cincinnati plus one against Buffalo. Cincinnati
Speaker 2: this year has been wildly undervalued by Vegas twelve and
Speaker 2: three against the spread. Buffalo continues to be slightly overvalued
Speaker 2: by Vegas seven and eight against the spread. We don't now.
Speaker 2: I am a little nervous about the Liel Collins injury.
Speaker 2: Cincinnati has not shown the ability to deal with rotating
Speaker 2: offensive line pieces you saw at the beginning of the year.
Speaker 2: With that said, Buffalo, no von Miller isn't going to
Speaker 2: be able to take advantage of it as much as
Speaker 2: I think certain teams would that. For Cincinnati, this is
Speaker 2: this keeps them alive for the number one seed. Conversely,
Speaker 2: if they lose, they might end up being the five seed,
Speaker 2: not even winning their division. Buffalo has one game games
Speaker 2: over the last six weeks, with the exception of one game,
Speaker 2: despite the play of their quarterback Josh Allen once again
Speaker 2: last week a couple picks less than two hundred yards
Speaker 2: passing game in Cincinnati is the biggest Monday night football
Speaker 2: game in the history of that stadium. Cincinnati is gonna
Speaker 2: win outright. I'm getting point, getting one point, not getting
Speaker 2: a lot of points, but I'm getting a point at home.
Speaker 2: I would bet Cincinnati all the way to minus two
Speaker 2: and a half. I'm getting them plus one. They're gonna win.
Speaker 2: It also is gonna be so helpful for the Chiefs
Speaker 2: when we wake up Tuesday morning and Cincinnati's beaten Buffalo.
Speaker 2: Guess who's the one seed again? Uh? All the Chiefs
Speaker 2: with and you know the Chiefs this week have Denver.
Speaker 2: We'll talk about that game in a moment. And next
Speaker 2: week you know who they have, Jared Sidham, All Jared Stidham.
Speaker 2: So I am rooting for Cincinnati in this game. I
Speaker 2: also think the smarter side Cincinnati plus.
Speaker 3: One Bills have a lot to lose in this game.
Speaker 3: Are you sure that the Bengals are going to be
Speaker 3: able to overpower that force?
Speaker 2: I think they're better than them. I think Cincinnati is
Speaker 2: better than Buffalo. I think they've been better throughout the year.
Speaker 2: Their quarterback's been better, I think the defense has been
Speaker 2: more consistent. I like Cincinnati, and I understand this is
Speaker 2: a massive game for both teams, either of these. I
Speaker 2: don't think it's as big.
Speaker 3: A I mean, I guess, well, the thing is is
Speaker 3: it might be a little bit bigger for the Bills.
Speaker 2: Well, listen, the Bills at the very least know their
Speaker 2: worst case scenarios. They fall to the three line, They've
Speaker 2: won their division. Cincinnati is only a game up on
Speaker 2: Baltimore and has Baltimore in Week eighteen. Cincinnati absolutely could
Speaker 2: fall to the five line if they lose this game.
Speaker 2: If things go awry for them, they so it's huge
Speaker 2: for both teams. It's huge for Kansas City, who's not
Speaker 2: even playing in it. We like Cincinnati plus one. So
Speaker 2: if you want to know what a five and oh
Speaker 2: slate looks like, you know what, And you guys at
Speaker 2: the end of the show are gonna get me an offer.
Speaker 2: I don't even need an offer. I'm just gonna parlay
Speaker 2: all five twenty five to one, Miami plus two and
Speaker 2: a half, and you know what, it's gonna be better
Speaker 2: than twenty five to one because I'm putting Miami, Minnesota
Speaker 2: in Cincinnati. I don't even need the points where we're
Speaker 2: putting them on the money line. Miami plus two and
Speaker 2: a half, Arizona plus three and a half, San Francisco
Speaker 2: minus ten, Minnesota plus three and a half, and Cincinnati
Speaker 2: plus one. Let's just find out real quick what that
Speaker 2: exact bet that I just described what that would pay.
Speaker 2: And I'm not certain about Minnesota on the money line.
Speaker 2: I might be squeamish on that, but let's just go
Speaker 2: through it real quick. So what did I say. I
Speaker 2: gotta find out Miami money line plus one thirty and
Speaker 2: then we're doing San Francisco minus ten. We'll do Minnesota
Speaker 2: plus the points plus the three and a half, just
Speaker 2: because Cincinnati on the money line, and there's one more
Speaker 2: than I'm leaving Arizona. Oh, boring, the boring one where
Speaker 2: Arizona getting three, Oh my god, thirty two forty to one,
Speaker 2: thirty two to one, thirty two to one, Demontsy, you
Speaker 2: and me, we're gonna we're putting that in there. Five
Speaker 2: and oh week giving us a little breathing room going
Speaker 2: could be one game under five hundred going into week eighteen. Yeah,
Speaker 2: save the season. Oh, this is a this is a
Speaker 2: great week. It is a great week.
Speaker 3: I'm rooting for you. It's uh.
Speaker 2: The offer hit last week and we didn't bet it.
Speaker 2: It ended up hitting Lebron's over Lucas over the Jacks
Speaker 2: to win and the Chiefs to cover the offer hit
Speaker 2: the plus twelve hundred. No, that was it. The Chiefs
Speaker 2: won by fourteen.
Speaker 3: I thought something with Luca had happen. Or Lebron.
Speaker 2: No, Lebron scored thirty eight. On Christmas, Lucas scored scored
Speaker 2: thirty two. They all everything hit. The offer hit last week,
Speaker 2: the third or fourth offered hit. A lot of them
Speaker 2: have hit. All right. We have a massive slate this weekend.
Speaker 2: We haven't in stay aways, be careful's in perfectly priced.
Speaker 2: I'm gonna go through all of these. I'm gonna spend
Speaker 2: less time on why they're in each category for certain games,
Speaker 2: and more time on the actual game because we have
Speaker 2: so many interesting games. We do that next What's Right
Speaker 2: Week seventeen Gambling Show.
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Speaker 2: All right, welcome back in week seventeen. What's Right NFL
Speaker 2: Gambling Show. Here's our stay away category. There's four games.
Speaker 2: Some of these are super interesting games. The games are
Speaker 2: Cleveland at Washington, New Orleans at Philly, Jacksonville at Houston,
Speaker 2: and Denver at Kansas City. So Cleveland at Washington is
Speaker 2: a stay away for a couple of reasons. One is
Speaker 2: the Washington football team on the cusp of the postseason.
Speaker 2: Switching to Carson Wentz is a very curious decision. Now, listen, Taylor,
Speaker 2: Heineke's been bad, and I totally understand that, But then
Speaker 2: making a quarterback change at this moment for a guy
Speaker 2: who last year melted down at the end of the
Speaker 2: season for the Colts and cost them what should have
Speaker 2: been a lot for the playoffs is odd. I'm staying
Speaker 2: away from it, however, because I to me, Deshaun Watson
Speaker 2: right now, just from a football perspective, is one of
Speaker 2: the most curious players in the league. He's been terrible,
Speaker 2: really terrible in every game he's played it with the Browns.
Speaker 2: It's hard to believe he's just now this bad.
Speaker 3: You're scared he's gonna turn it off at some point.
Speaker 2: You've gotta think the rust is gonna come off now.
Speaker 2: Maybe the two years out of football and everything that, uh,
Speaker 2: you know, he put himself through this offseason, maybe it's
Speaker 2: too much for him. But that's just stay away. The
Speaker 2: two quarterbacks are such big question marks. I'm not getting
Speaker 2: enough points to love Cleveland there when Washington has to
Speaker 2: have the game. So I'm staying away. New Orleans at
Speaker 2: Philly is to stay away because of the unknown that
Speaker 2: Philly keeps being cagey, acting like Jalen Hurts might play.
Speaker 2: I don't know enough about the quarterback spot. Also, Philly,
Speaker 2: I want to see how they look without Wayne Johnson
Speaker 2: New Orleans. Technically, I'm still alive for the playoffs, but
Speaker 2: not really the six and a half. It's too much
Speaker 2: unknown for the Philly quarterback situation for me want to
Speaker 2: have anything to do. So even if Jalen.
Speaker 3: Hurts isn't playing, Minsho just went toe to toe with
Speaker 3: the Cowboys and had a pretty decent game. Yep, And
Speaker 3: he's not even getting a full touchdown at home against
Speaker 3: the Saints.
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's also just a weird spot for Philly, which
Speaker 2: is they they probably need to win one more game
Speaker 2: to lock up the one seed, but they know if
Speaker 2: they win, they don't have to win both. So are
Speaker 2: they going to be super cautious with the injuries this week?
Speaker 2: Try to play every one in Week eighteen? Just too
Speaker 2: many unknowns. Maybe this is a game you can bet
Speaker 2: Sunday morning as we record this on Thursday. Not enough
Speaker 2: information for me. I'm staying away. Jacksonville at Houston, So Houston,
Speaker 2: it's Jacksonville's laying four and a half. Houston shouldn't want
Speaker 2: to win this game because since they won last week,
Speaker 2: the number one pick is now in jeopardy. If they
Speaker 2: win one more, Chicago could take it from him. If
Speaker 2: Chicago lose out and Houston wins one more. Also, Jacksonville's
Speaker 2: in a really weird spot because no matter what happens
Speaker 2: this week, Jacksonville wins or loses the division based on
Speaker 2: their Week eighteen game against Tennessee. Even if they win
Speaker 2: this week and Tennessee loses this week, it's meaningless. If
Speaker 2: they lose this week and Tennessee wins this week it's meaningless.
Speaker 2: So both of Tennessee and Jacksonville are playing semi meaningless
Speaker 2: games this week because the division is gonna come down
Speaker 2: to Week eighteen. The only way this week matters is
Speaker 2: if Tennessee Jacksonville in week eighteen is a tie, then
Speaker 2: what happens this week could matter. So that's not gonna happen.
Speaker 2: So I don't know. I would imagine Jacksonville is gonna
Speaker 2: be uber conservative in this game. Anyone who is potentially
Speaker 2: dealing with a nagging anything is gonna sit out this week.
Speaker 2: That's what Tennessee's already doing with their guys. So I
Speaker 2: don't feel comfortable laying the four and a half point.
Speaker 2: I also don't want to grab four and a half
Speaker 2: points with Houston because Houston might have an edict from
Speaker 2: management that we have to lose. We want Bryce Young,
Speaker 2: we want the number one pick, we don't want to win.
Speaker 2: And so now what will be very interesting if that
Speaker 2: is the case, is Houston the final week of the
Speaker 2: year plays Indy. So what happens when one team that's
Speaker 2: trying to lose plays one team that's coached by Jeff Saturday.
Speaker 2: Who knows? It could be total Mayhem. But so to
Speaker 2: me that to stay away in that spot.
Speaker 3: So you've picked the prince that was promised time and
Speaker 3: time after again. You're one and six against the well,
Speaker 3: they're one and six against the spread when you pick them.
Speaker 3: I know now that Trevor Lawrence is dealing. You want
Speaker 3: to stay away from him, and you don't think that
Speaker 3: he can snap his Textans. His Texans losing streak.
Speaker 2: The four and a half is weird to me. I'm
Speaker 2: just I don't know how much Jacksonville is gonna take
Speaker 2: this game. Seriously. This is again a Sunday. What if
Speaker 2: they all of a sudden have ten guys that were
Speaker 2: questionable that are aren't gonna play because they need to
Speaker 2: be healthy going into Week eighteen against Tennessee. So I'm
Speaker 2: just staying away. Last one's Denver at Kansas City. So
Speaker 2: Kansady has not been great at covering huge numbers. Furthermore,
Speaker 2: there is always no that is true, but I shouldn't
Speaker 2: say always. There is always the possibility of the fired
Speaker 2: coach bounce that the team for a week gets invigorated
Speaker 2: because the coach got fired. Now, I don't think that's
Speaker 2: gonna happen with Denver because Russ is still there, and
Speaker 2: I think the frustrations towards Russ and not to hack
Speaker 2: it as much, but I'm staying away from it.
Speaker 3: Exactly what is just I mean, this isn't about the
Speaker 3: bet or anything, but exactly what you just said about
Speaker 3: the fired coach bounce back is exactly what happens to
Speaker 3: me when I like play Madden and that pisses me
Speaker 3: off and I get smacked and I get off of it.
Speaker 3: Then I get back on it, like a couple days
Speaker 3: later or something, and then I just spank somebody.
Speaker 2: I don't think that's the exact same thing, but I
Speaker 2: think it is the same thing.
Speaker 3: I think that's like like I'm firing myself. I gotta
Speaker 3: get off the game.
Speaker 2: Oh, I get it yourself to come back. I get it.
Speaker 2: All right, there you go. All right, be careful. Category
Speaker 2: three games Pittsburgh at Baltimore, Chicago at Detroit, Indie at
Speaker 2: the Giants. All Right, we're being careful with Pittsburgh at
Speaker 2: Baltimore because it seems like they're daring you to bet
Speaker 2: Baltimore because you don't have to lay the full three
Speaker 2: the two and a half points. Seems like they're like,
Speaker 2: why don't you just take Baltimore. They need the game. Pittsburgh.
Speaker 2: I understand they're still technically alive for the playoffs, but
Speaker 2: not really. Pittsburgh last week needed, uh, you know, an
Speaker 2: end of game miracle to beat the Raiders. Now they're
Speaker 2: in Baltimore and they're only getting two and a half points.
Speaker 2: I almost included Pittsburgh and the picks because this seems
Speaker 2: so fishy. Baltimore also the question they need to get
Speaker 2: Lamar back at some point before the postseason, and if
Speaker 2: they do, they could be dangerous. To me, this is
Speaker 2: a I think the vast majority of the public is
Speaker 2: going to be on Baltimore because it's not the full three,
Speaker 2: so I'm staying away from it.
Speaker 3: And also along with that, the Ravens have lost only
Speaker 3: one game against the spread in December versus Tomlin in
Speaker 3: the last decade. Seems like some free money.
Speaker 2: See there you go. That's what I'm saying, Like I
Speaker 2: everyone's going to be on Baltimore. I'm not going to
Speaker 2: be part of everyone. Chicago at Detroit. Detroit has to
Speaker 2: have the game, Detroit is in position to make the postseason.
Speaker 2: Chicago keeps getting blown out by people. Why is this
Speaker 2: not seven? Why is it Detroit minus just six when
Speaker 2: Chicago Those defense has been this terrible, Detroit at home,
Speaker 2: that offense has been excellent. They need the game. Detroit
Speaker 2: got embarrassed last week, so they're extra motivated they can
Speaker 2: sneak into the playoffs. Feels like a trap.
Speaker 3: Justin feels gonna have a field day. That's what they're saying. Well,
Speaker 3: the only thing they could be saying.
Speaker 2: Here's the thing about that. I think the public is
Speaker 2: going to be all over Detroit because they are laying
Speaker 2: less than a touchdown. I think Detroit wins, but that line.
Speaker 2: I know this sounds dumb and it's not really accurate,
Speaker 2: but I would almost feel better about it if it
Speaker 2: were Detroit minus seven. Because it's Detroit minus six, it
Speaker 2: feels like a Vegas trap. We're staying away. And lastly,
Speaker 2: India the Giants a lot of the exact same logic there.
Speaker 2: These are two teams that gotta win, Giants win, and
Speaker 2: they're in the playoffs. They're playing two awful teams that
Speaker 2: are on long losing streaks. Why are they not laying
Speaker 2: the full seven? These are potential playoff teams at home
Speaker 2: and gotta have it games. Why are they not laying
Speaker 2: the full seven because for the Giants, the Giants should
Speaker 2: make the playoffs. But if they lose this week, next
Speaker 2: week they have Philly, and so are the it is
Speaker 2: they do have Philly next week, right, I know it's
Speaker 2: a divisional game. I'm almost certain it's Giants Philly in
Speaker 2: week eighteen. Yet it is. And so the Giants know
Speaker 2: that this is our spot to lock into the playoffs
Speaker 2: and they could potentially give themselves a mini buy if
Speaker 2: they don't care about their playoff seed. They just win
Speaker 2: this week, We're locked into the playoffs, can rest in
Speaker 2: week eighteen. It feels trappy, So we're we're staying away.
Speaker 2: And now lastly, Gabe's saying we need a new category.
Speaker 2: Nick overthinks, all right, let's just watch make a little
Speaker 2: note of this that Nick says the public is going
Speaker 2: to be on to Troy and the Giants and the
Speaker 2: line should be seven in their six. And it feels trappy.
Speaker 2: And let's see what happened in those games, all right, Last,
Speaker 2: perfectly priced Carolina at Tampa. Tampa will play a bad
Speaker 2: football game. It will be an ugly football game, and
Speaker 2: they will win by a field goal. They'll force Sam
Speaker 2: Darnold into a bad turnover. They'll win by a field goal.
Speaker 2: It's perfectly priced. Jets at Seahawks. The Jets with Mike
Speaker 2: White are a good team. The Seahawks look totally incompetent
Speaker 2: against Kansas City. If it wasn't and I know you
Speaker 2: don't care about travel the way I do, if it
Speaker 2: wasn't the Jets having to go all the way to Seattle,
Speaker 2: it would be Jets probably minus two and a half
Speaker 2: or minus three. Instead, it's Jets minus one and a half.
Speaker 2: That to me is exactly right. I could see Seattle
Speaker 2: winning this game at home. The Jets should win this game.
Speaker 2: It's kind of an elimination game for either of these
Speaker 2: teams playoff wise. That the line is exactly right in my.
Speaker 3: Mind, Seahawks being home dogs versus the Jets is kind
Speaker 3: of crazy. So we're saying that Mike White is here
Speaker 3: now and Gino is right here.
Speaker 2: Well, I think the Jets overall rosters better. I like
Speaker 2: the Jets roster, and the Jets next year with Derek
Speaker 2: Carr are going to be dangerous. I think Derek Carr
Speaker 2: is gonna go to the Jets. I think they're gonna
Speaker 2: paying a lot of money is gonna go to the Jets,
Speaker 2: and then last one Rams at the Chargers. Chargers laying
Speaker 2: six and a half. The Chargers in a weird spot
Speaker 2: because they have locked up a playoff spot, but the
Speaker 2: five seed is valuable because the five seed means you
Speaker 2: go to Jacksonville in round one as opposed to playing Buffalo,
Speaker 2: Cincinnati or Kansas City. Who would be the two of
Speaker 2: those teams are gonna be the two and the three,
Speaker 2: So the Chargers should take care of business. The Rams
Speaker 2: are a little frisky with Baker a little bit. Six
Speaker 2: and a half minus seven feels right. So there are
Speaker 2: the games for this weekend. All right, we will give
Speaker 2: you the right move. I already gave you guys the
Speaker 2: offer thirty two to one, already locked in. We'll do
Speaker 2: all that. Wrap up the show. Week seventeen Gambling Show
Speaker 2: Next What's right? All right? Welcome back in Week seventeen
Speaker 2: Gambling Show. Our five picks this week Miami plus two
Speaker 2: and a half at New England, Arizona plus three and
Speaker 2: a half at Atlanta, San Francisco minus ten at Vegas, Minnesota,
Speaker 2: plus three and a half at Green Bay and Cincinnati
Speaker 2: plus one against Buffalo. Our lock of the week. The
Speaker 2: right move is Miami getting points in New England. Miami
Speaker 2: and Teddy Bridgewater are going to lock up a playoff spot,
Speaker 2: eliminate New England and end everything for that the AFC.
Speaker 2: I guess it won't technically end everything to the AFC
Speaker 2: seven seed. I don't think they officially clinched with a
Speaker 2: win this week, but they they actually might clinch with
Speaker 2: a win this week. They definitely clinched with a win
Speaker 2: this week if other things happen. You know what, let
Speaker 2: me I want to get this exactly right. I don't
Speaker 2: want to give the audience bad information. Let me just
Speaker 2: go ahead and check. Either way, that's our pick. But Miami,
Speaker 2: if they win this week, is it one hundred percent
Speaker 2: lock during the playoffs, No, they need a cut. I
Speaker 2: think they need the Jets to lose as well and
Speaker 2: they be called one hundred percent lock to make the playoffs.
Speaker 2: Let me see if that's right.
Speaker 1: Yep.
Speaker 2: If Miami wins and the Jets lose, Miami's lock for
Speaker 2: the playoffs. If Miami wins and the Jets win, the
Speaker 2: winner of Jets Miami in Week eighteen goes to the playoffs.
Speaker 2: So either way, Miami gets this win, they eliminate the Patriots.
Speaker 2: That's our right move. We do not have a teaser
Speaker 2: for you this week. They are not great teaser lines
Speaker 2: this week. We don't love any of them. Our exotic
Speaker 2: of the week, however, that I'm giving you is Miami
Speaker 2: on the money line, Arizona plus three and a half,
Speaker 2: San Francisco minus ten, Minnesota plus three and a half,
Speaker 2: and Cincinnati on the money line. It pays thirty two
Speaker 2: to one. Demons, you have an offer for me that
Speaker 2: you would like to make. Go right ahead.
Speaker 3: The Dolphins on the graphic.
Speaker 2: Oh I didn't even see that. Oh they put they
Speaker 2: added all our picks there. I like that. That's cool.
Speaker 2: Go ahead.
Speaker 3: The Chiefs are playing the Broncos, and I'm pretty sure
Speaker 3: Mahlmes is about to put on a show. So how
Speaker 3: about Mahomes to be the first touchdown score and Mahomes
Speaker 3: to be the last touchdown score?
Speaker 2: Okay, I hate this bet.
Speaker 3: All in all plus twenty five to twenty five.
Speaker 2: Two hundred fifty five to one. So I wouldn't hate
Speaker 2: that bet if they were playing a better team against
Speaker 2: the Broncos, Mahomes is gonna run the ball almost none.
Speaker 2: I think it's just gonna try to stay healthy going
Speaker 2: into the postseason. I'm gonna give you one little gambling
Speaker 2: note here, that same guy being the first and last
Speaker 2: touchdown scorer. The people I think think of it as
Speaker 2: a bet that you would make in like, oh, this
Speaker 2: guy's gonna score a bunch of touchdowns. That's not the
Speaker 2: way to win that specific type of bet. The way
Speaker 2: to win that specific type of bet is finding any
Speaker 2: time saying no is to find a bad weather, low
Speaker 2: scoring type of game where you think there's only gonna
Speaker 2: be one touchdown scored the whole game, because then the
Speaker 2: guy who scores the first is the guy who scores
Speaker 2: the last. So a game that you think is gonna
Speaker 2: be twelve to ten and trying to nail who that
Speaker 2: one touchdown scorer is not a game that you think
Speaker 2: is gonna have a bunch of touchdowns and you're just
Speaker 2: gonna hit the exact again, a guy to scored the
Speaker 2: first and last touchdowns incredibly difficult bet to hit. But
Speaker 2: the through line to hit it is if you think
Speaker 2: there's only gonna be one touchdown score in the game,
Speaker 2: and then the guy who scores the first is the
Speaker 2: guy who scores the last. That's the way to do it.
Speaker 2: I'm not taking your offer. I like my offer better
Speaker 2: at thirty two and a half to one was we're
Speaker 2: gonna hit that and then we're gonna hit our fifty
Speaker 2: to one preseason Chiefs Niners, super Bowl. Bet we're gonna
Speaker 2: be rolling in money five and Oero week on deck.
Speaker 2: We'll talk to you guys on Monday. Sorry, by the way,
Speaker 2: that we didn't ever show this past Monday. I had
Speaker 2: to fill in for Colin Television obligations took precedent. My apologies.
Speaker 2: We'll be back on Monday no matter what. Talk to
Speaker 2: you guys then. Happy New Year. Hey, it's Niggart. Thank
Speaker 2: you so much for watching. Please do us a favorite.
Speaker 2: Click subscribe. It helps my ego and Demansey's got a
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