1 00:00:08,840 --> 00:00:11,959 Speaker 1: Welcome to the favorites of the podcast. We are part 2 00:00:12,000 --> 00:00:14,640 Speaker 1: of the Volume podcast Network. I am Chad Millman of 3 00:00:14,680 --> 00:00:18,640 Speaker 1: the Action Network. Today I am joined as always by 4 00:00:18,720 --> 00:00:23,000 Speaker 1: my co host, my companion, my padre, my BFF professional 5 00:00:23,079 --> 00:00:24,079 Speaker 1: better Simon Hunter. 6 00:00:24,440 --> 00:00:25,280 Speaker 2: I'm giving you a. 7 00:00:25,480 --> 00:00:32,040 Speaker 1: Very special, very exaggerated, very English hello. 8 00:00:32,440 --> 00:00:37,160 Speaker 3: Soymon, Hello Chad. Perfect day here in Burnley, lovely, lovely 9 00:00:37,240 --> 00:00:39,599 Speaker 3: sunny day here in the United Kingdom. It's beautiful. 10 00:00:39,800 --> 00:00:43,400 Speaker 1: Well listen, I know you've been in training trying to 11 00:00:43,440 --> 00:00:47,720 Speaker 1: throw down as many pints as you can getting ready. 12 00:00:48,159 --> 00:00:52,080 Speaker 1: You've been in England for less than twelve hours. 13 00:00:52,680 --> 00:00:58,720 Speaker 2: Are you drunk? Have you entered into any coal mines? 14 00:00:59,160 --> 00:00:59,960 Speaker 2: Have you joined? 15 00:01:00,040 --> 00:01:06,280 Speaker 1: And peaky blinders? Are you carrying razor blades in your cap? 16 00:01:06,680 --> 00:01:08,320 Speaker 1: What's happening in Burnley right now? 17 00:01:09,360 --> 00:01:11,720 Speaker 3: God bless my cousins. They bought me cors Light because 18 00:01:11,720 --> 00:01:13,920 Speaker 3: they said that they think I only could drink light beer. 19 00:01:14,040 --> 00:01:16,280 Speaker 3: So I had a cors Light and I've said a 20 00:01:16,280 --> 00:01:20,440 Speaker 3: couple in it. So other than that, that's as British 21 00:01:20,440 --> 00:01:23,440 Speaker 3: as I've gone so far. So early days, Chad News. 22 00:01:23,440 --> 00:01:26,399 Speaker 3: I landed this morning. I'm on two hours of sleep 23 00:01:26,880 --> 00:01:30,560 Speaker 3: and yeah, tonight I'm sure it's like six thirty here, 24 00:01:30,640 --> 00:01:32,800 Speaker 3: so I'm sure after this call I'm gonna have a 25 00:01:32,800 --> 00:01:34,640 Speaker 3: couple drinks and my cousins. I'm looking forward to it. 26 00:01:34,840 --> 00:01:36,200 Speaker 1: Yeah, what's gonna happen? Are you gonna go to a 27 00:01:36,240 --> 00:01:37,760 Speaker 1: public What happens in England? 28 00:01:38,400 --> 00:01:40,720 Speaker 3: Yeah? Like literally, I mean that's why I love England. 29 00:01:41,440 --> 00:01:43,960 Speaker 3: I'm a block away, so walk down to the local pub, 30 00:01:44,200 --> 00:01:46,000 Speaker 3: have some fish and chips, have a couple of drinks 31 00:01:46,000 --> 00:01:48,440 Speaker 3: and watch some football matches. Will be a good night. 32 00:01:49,640 --> 00:01:55,600 Speaker 1: I feel like you on two hours of sleep, flying 33 00:01:55,720 --> 00:02:00,680 Speaker 1: overnight is no different than me staying up to watch 34 00:02:00,720 --> 00:02:03,880 Speaker 1: the end of the NBA Finals, which is about two 35 00:02:03,960 --> 00:02:08,080 Speaker 1: and a half hours past my bedtime. Uh. We're going 36 00:02:08,160 --> 00:02:10,919 Speaker 1: to talk a little bit about that today with our 37 00:02:11,440 --> 00:02:17,040 Speaker 1: brilliant analyst host of the Buckets podcast, the man who 38 00:02:17,240 --> 00:02:22,000 Speaker 1: made us last week bet the Okac thunder in six 39 00:02:22,080 --> 00:02:27,400 Speaker 1: as well as the Pacers in seven. You know him 40 00:02:27,400 --> 00:02:32,320 Speaker 1: as the man who says the word subsequently subsequent. 41 00:02:33,880 --> 00:02:37,280 Speaker 4: Mister Matt Moore, I did it again this week. I 42 00:02:37,320 --> 00:02:40,720 Speaker 4: did really again on a show and was just killing 43 00:02:40,800 --> 00:02:43,000 Speaker 4: myself for it. I'm like, what is wrong with me? 44 00:02:43,120 --> 00:02:45,880 Speaker 4: I'm gonna go to like a hypnotist therapist to get 45 00:02:46,480 --> 00:02:48,440 Speaker 4: me to say subsequent correctly. 46 00:02:48,919 --> 00:02:50,720 Speaker 1: I don't even think they say it like that in England, 47 00:02:50,760 --> 00:02:51,760 Speaker 1: like it's not even a word. 48 00:02:51,880 --> 00:02:56,360 Speaker 5: Nope, it's just me. It's just me. I'm the problem. 49 00:02:56,400 --> 00:02:56,799 Speaker 5: It's me. 50 00:03:00,000 --> 00:03:02,120 Speaker 1: That's the problem for us. Matt Moore because after our 51 00:03:02,160 --> 00:03:05,520 Speaker 1: conversation last week, me and Simon both bet on the 52 00:03:05,520 --> 00:03:12,680 Speaker 1: Thunder to win in six and it's looking decent. I mean, 53 00:03:12,800 --> 00:03:14,960 Speaker 1: Tyrese Halliburton, we can talk a little bit about the game. 54 00:03:15,000 --> 00:03:18,239 Speaker 1: There's a lot to say, not just about the game, 55 00:03:18,400 --> 00:03:21,960 Speaker 1: but since the last time we spoke, there's a lot 56 00:03:21,960 --> 00:03:25,200 Speaker 1: of activity in a variety of markets for the NBA. 57 00:03:25,360 --> 00:03:27,679 Speaker 1: Whether it's what's going to happen with Kevin Durant, and 58 00:03:27,720 --> 00:03:32,400 Speaker 1: I think that has subsequent value in the betting markets 59 00:03:32,440 --> 00:03:35,640 Speaker 1: for where we think he might land. There are conversations 60 00:03:35,680 --> 00:03:39,640 Speaker 1: for top five markets for the NBA draft. Desmond Bane 61 00:03:40,080 --> 00:03:44,160 Speaker 1: was traded from Memphis to Orlando. That got it to 62 00:03:44,280 --> 00:03:48,800 Speaker 1: me kind of an outsized reaction from people, but also 63 00:03:49,320 --> 00:03:52,600 Speaker 1: having an impact on what people think now of the 64 00:03:52,720 --> 00:03:55,080 Speaker 1: Eastern Conference in the NBA. So there's a lot to 65 00:03:55,120 --> 00:03:57,360 Speaker 1: break down when it comes to NBA right now, We're 66 00:03:57,480 --> 00:04:00,360 Speaker 1: entering into that super dramatic high school drama off season 67 00:04:00,400 --> 00:04:04,560 Speaker 1: of the NBA, which I love. But right now, as 68 00:04:04,560 --> 00:04:07,000 Speaker 1: we talk about it, the Thunder of a three to 69 00:04:07,000 --> 00:04:10,640 Speaker 1: two lead shake Gilgess. Alexander is averaging about thirty three 70 00:04:10,680 --> 00:04:14,720 Speaker 1: a game. Jalen Williams had forty last night for the Thunder. 71 00:04:14,760 --> 00:04:15,600 Speaker 2: They're up three to two. 72 00:04:15,720 --> 00:04:18,919 Speaker 1: Tyrese Halliburton has injured his calf. He played with a 73 00:04:18,960 --> 00:04:24,280 Speaker 1: tight calf. Here's what's interesting to me. I don't know 74 00:04:24,279 --> 00:04:26,560 Speaker 1: what's going to happen in the next two games, but 75 00:04:27,320 --> 00:04:29,600 Speaker 1: I do know that it seems very strange to me 76 00:04:30,120 --> 00:04:36,520 Speaker 1: how frequently frequently it takes Tyre's Halliburton to get into 77 00:04:36,560 --> 00:04:39,760 Speaker 1: the offensive flow in these big games. When he's great, 78 00:04:39,760 --> 00:04:42,960 Speaker 1: he's great, But why is it so hard for him 79 00:04:43,000 --> 00:04:46,880 Speaker 1: to find buckets in these big games? Too often it's 80 00:04:46,920 --> 00:04:49,600 Speaker 1: like the second quarter and you're seeing Tyres Haliburton hasn't 81 00:04:49,600 --> 00:04:50,080 Speaker 1: scored yet. 82 00:04:51,440 --> 00:04:53,000 Speaker 4: Yeah, So I think there's a couple of things that happened, 83 00:04:53,000 --> 00:04:55,080 Speaker 4: depending on what the matchup is. You know, last night, 84 00:04:55,120 --> 00:04:57,960 Speaker 4: I think the injury really was pretty severe and it 85 00:04:58,000 --> 00:04:59,760 Speaker 4: was enough to really hamper him. Now he's going to 86 00:04:59,800 --> 00:05:03,080 Speaker 4: get so much treatment, Like the amount of treatment you 87 00:05:03,080 --> 00:05:03,880 Speaker 4: would not believe. 88 00:05:04,040 --> 00:05:05,360 Speaker 5: I don't think people really understand. 89 00:05:05,400 --> 00:05:07,880 Speaker 4: It's like, oh, he'll receive treatment, and they think it's like, oh, 90 00:05:07,880 --> 00:05:09,280 Speaker 4: he'll go in and they'll. 91 00:05:09,080 --> 00:05:09,560 Speaker 5: Work on him. 92 00:05:09,600 --> 00:05:11,320 Speaker 4: No, it's like they go to his house, they work 93 00:05:11,360 --> 00:05:13,200 Speaker 4: on him, he goes to sleep, they wake up, they 94 00:05:13,240 --> 00:05:14,560 Speaker 4: come to his house, they work on him. 95 00:05:14,600 --> 00:05:15,719 Speaker 5: He goes to the arena, they work. 96 00:05:16,000 --> 00:05:19,719 Speaker 4: It's constant over the next you know, seventy two hours 97 00:05:19,720 --> 00:05:22,200 Speaker 4: before they get to game six. 98 00:05:23,240 --> 00:05:24,160 Speaker 5: So that was part of it. 99 00:05:24,320 --> 00:05:26,840 Speaker 4: The other thing is that the Thunder have high pickup points, 100 00:05:26,839 --> 00:05:30,000 Speaker 4: so they're pressuring him up the court consistently, and they've 101 00:05:30,040 --> 00:05:31,440 Speaker 4: gotten to where there it's like, all right, we have 102 00:05:31,520 --> 00:05:33,720 Speaker 4: to pressure him all the way up the court. Then 103 00:05:33,760 --> 00:05:37,000 Speaker 4: there's the matter of the pick and roll coverage. Like, okay, 104 00:05:37,040 --> 00:05:39,080 Speaker 4: what's the easiest way to get Tyree's loose. Let's say 105 00:05:39,080 --> 00:05:42,160 Speaker 4: a screen for him and separate. Starting in game four, 106 00:05:42,480 --> 00:05:46,400 Speaker 4: the Thunder, we're like, fine, fine, we'll switch. They never 107 00:05:46,400 --> 00:05:48,120 Speaker 4: want to do that. They want to play drop because 108 00:05:48,120 --> 00:05:50,440 Speaker 4: it helps them protect the paint. They started switching and 109 00:05:50,480 --> 00:05:52,440 Speaker 4: like we called it on buckets pregame, which you can 110 00:05:52,440 --> 00:05:56,320 Speaker 4: catch every every pregame before the finals and have remaining 111 00:05:56,320 --> 00:05:58,760 Speaker 4: We have left at six point thirty eastern. We talked 112 00:05:58,800 --> 00:06:01,360 Speaker 4: about how, look, Tyree's unders are a great spot here 113 00:06:01,400 --> 00:06:03,920 Speaker 4: because they're gonna switch everything and Tyrese is not good 114 00:06:03,960 --> 00:06:06,359 Speaker 4: at challenging that, and that means the other thunder guys 115 00:06:06,360 --> 00:06:08,520 Speaker 4: don't have to help off, so his assist lanes are 116 00:06:08,520 --> 00:06:11,480 Speaker 4: not there. It's just one on one, go get a bucket, 117 00:06:11,520 --> 00:06:12,960 Speaker 4: and that's not Tyrese's game. 118 00:06:13,000 --> 00:06:13,919 Speaker 5: He wants to shape it. 119 00:06:13,960 --> 00:06:17,120 Speaker 4: He wants to force gravity and then separate things and 120 00:06:17,160 --> 00:06:19,720 Speaker 4: create open lanes for guys or work off ball, and 121 00:06:19,760 --> 00:06:21,600 Speaker 4: he's willing to defer if he feels like that's the 122 00:06:21,720 --> 00:06:25,359 Speaker 4: right play. Jokic had the same problem a couple of 123 00:06:25,400 --> 00:06:27,440 Speaker 4: years ago, and not a couple of years ago, like five, 124 00:06:27,480 --> 00:06:30,320 Speaker 4: six years ago, where I would actually like Joker and 125 00:06:30,360 --> 00:06:32,560 Speaker 4: I have like this ongoing tension because I'm always i 126 00:06:32,560 --> 00:06:34,960 Speaker 4: would ask him, I'm like, as the like, do you 127 00:06:34,960 --> 00:06:36,360 Speaker 4: feel like you're the best player on this team? 128 00:06:36,360 --> 00:06:38,120 Speaker 5: And he'd always be like, no, not at all, and 129 00:06:38,160 --> 00:06:40,880 Speaker 5: I'm like, Choker, like come on. 130 00:06:41,360 --> 00:06:43,600 Speaker 4: And Tyrese has the same thing where he just wants 131 00:06:43,640 --> 00:06:45,039 Speaker 4: to kind of be part of a team that makes 132 00:06:45,080 --> 00:06:47,400 Speaker 4: everybody better. He doesn't want to be the guy that 133 00:06:47,520 --> 00:06:50,200 Speaker 4: scores thirty five. He wants to win the game by 134 00:06:50,279 --> 00:06:53,360 Speaker 4: shaping it. But the thunder are saying, no, you're gonna 135 00:06:53,400 --> 00:06:55,720 Speaker 4: have to beat Chet Hunger in one on one and 136 00:06:55,760 --> 00:06:57,440 Speaker 4: get a bucket, and you're gonna have to do it 137 00:06:57,600 --> 00:07:00,640 Speaker 4: enough that we help off. And that lenge is what 138 00:07:00,720 --> 00:07:04,360 Speaker 4: really works against Tyrese, is what makes him disengage. And 139 00:07:04,640 --> 00:07:08,640 Speaker 4: they've beaten the Knicks, and they've beaten the Calves because Nemhard, 140 00:07:08,880 --> 00:07:12,760 Speaker 4: Nie Smith, Miles, Turner, Pascal have been able to attack 141 00:07:12,840 --> 00:07:16,720 Speaker 4: those matchups off ball with the space that's provided. Okay, 142 00:07:16,720 --> 00:07:18,680 Speaker 4: so he's a different beast and that's why I think 143 00:07:18,680 --> 00:07:20,400 Speaker 4: you're seeing some of this with Tyreee on top. 144 00:07:20,280 --> 00:07:20,800 Speaker 5: Of the injury. 145 00:07:22,200 --> 00:07:23,560 Speaker 1: Simon, did you want to jump in because I have 146 00:07:23,600 --> 00:07:24,239 Speaker 1: another question. 147 00:07:24,800 --> 00:07:26,600 Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, I'm just like you know, I'm I've 148 00:07:26,640 --> 00:07:28,960 Speaker 3: loved this series. There's just so much that's going on 149 00:07:29,120 --> 00:07:32,200 Speaker 3: that's I mean, anyone that's just been knocking this series 150 00:07:32,280 --> 00:07:34,280 Speaker 3: just really has missed out on what is why we 151 00:07:34,320 --> 00:07:37,680 Speaker 3: love basketball. And to me, that Game four, that pivotal 152 00:07:37,720 --> 00:07:41,240 Speaker 3: moment of SGA and just okay, See's stepping up right 153 00:07:41,320 --> 00:07:44,200 Speaker 3: They're down ten points set into that fourth quarter, and 154 00:07:44,560 --> 00:07:46,480 Speaker 3: I don't know about you, but I thought this is 155 00:07:46,520 --> 00:07:49,400 Speaker 3: over right, Like this is they're down to a team 156 00:07:49,760 --> 00:07:52,520 Speaker 3: and you know the Pacers that can close these games out, 157 00:07:52,800 --> 00:07:54,480 Speaker 3: can they can they live up to the moment to 158 00:07:54,520 --> 00:07:56,600 Speaker 3: come back. And the fact that you know we've all 159 00:07:56,640 --> 00:07:59,280 Speaker 3: seen it. Sga at the end of that game, stepped up, 160 00:07:59,520 --> 00:08:02,840 Speaker 3: hits some shots, had his moment and now here we 161 00:08:02,880 --> 00:08:05,800 Speaker 3: are in the next game, right and you know Halliburton 162 00:08:05,840 --> 00:08:08,000 Speaker 3: goes down. He does not look like the same player. 163 00:08:08,720 --> 00:08:11,200 Speaker 3: We're all sitting here right that it's it's over for OKC. 164 00:08:12,040 --> 00:08:13,640 Speaker 3: I would love to know your view, Matt on this 165 00:08:13,720 --> 00:08:18,160 Speaker 3: opening number, because it opened six. Professionals came in obviously 166 00:08:18,240 --> 00:08:21,320 Speaker 3: quickly took that number. They've taken the five and a half. 167 00:08:21,560 --> 00:08:23,560 Speaker 3: I know some pros have taken the five, and now 168 00:08:23,560 --> 00:08:25,720 Speaker 3: you're seeing some four and a halfs. Is this because 169 00:08:25,760 --> 00:08:27,680 Speaker 3: of what you just talked about. Is Halliburton gonna be 170 00:08:28,160 --> 00:08:30,080 Speaker 3: game ready? Is that why this numbers moving or is 171 00:08:30,120 --> 00:08:33,320 Speaker 3: this just professionals taking a stand on a number where 172 00:08:33,640 --> 00:08:36,440 Speaker 3: you know this is a thunder team that struggles on 173 00:08:36,480 --> 00:08:39,320 Speaker 3: their road. Is that simply as simple as that so 174 00:08:39,440 --> 00:08:39,800 Speaker 3: this is. 175 00:08:39,760 --> 00:08:41,520 Speaker 4: One of those, and we don't see this as often 176 00:08:41,559 --> 00:08:43,480 Speaker 4: in the NBA. Really takes until I think the finals 177 00:08:43,559 --> 00:08:46,400 Speaker 4: until we see this. From what I'm seeing, it very 178 00:08:46,480 --> 00:08:48,760 Speaker 4: much looks like groups are fighting over the number, and 179 00:08:48,800 --> 00:08:50,920 Speaker 4: we don't see that very often in NBA because there's 180 00:08:50,920 --> 00:08:53,040 Speaker 4: not enough interest or money on it, and then the 181 00:08:53,040 --> 00:08:55,920 Speaker 4: limits are lower. So this open, like you mentioned this 182 00:08:56,000 --> 00:08:58,240 Speaker 4: open six, it immediately pops down to five. There's some 183 00:08:58,240 --> 00:08:59,839 Speaker 4: four and a half showing, but now we're going back 184 00:08:59,880 --> 00:09:01,559 Speaker 4: up to five five and a half in the market 185 00:09:01,880 --> 00:09:04,640 Speaker 4: because now today we're seeing sharp action coming back in 186 00:09:05,080 --> 00:09:09,120 Speaker 4: on OKC. And whether that's Intel saying hey, Haliburton's probably 187 00:09:09,160 --> 00:09:11,680 Speaker 4: not gonna be ready, or the immediate move was just 188 00:09:11,720 --> 00:09:14,160 Speaker 4: based off of all right, look you pop this at six. 189 00:09:14,679 --> 00:09:17,920 Speaker 4: Indy's been competitive. OKC is oh and eight a t 190 00:09:18,200 --> 00:09:20,439 Speaker 4: or I'm sorry, now eight and one or one in 191 00:09:20,520 --> 00:09:24,040 Speaker 4: eight on the road ats in the playoffs. This is 192 00:09:24,160 --> 00:09:25,840 Speaker 4: enough to get me to go ahead and take Indy 193 00:09:25,960 --> 00:09:29,360 Speaker 4: as a reaction here with this price point. Now we're 194 00:09:29,360 --> 00:09:31,719 Speaker 4: seeing some of this coming back on OKA. See all 195 00:09:31,720 --> 00:09:33,520 Speaker 4: the trends are going to suggest, okay, see is the 196 00:09:33,559 --> 00:09:36,960 Speaker 4: spot here? It does look like Okac's gotten to be themselves. 197 00:09:37,000 --> 00:09:37,319 Speaker 5: They look. 198 00:09:37,840 --> 00:09:40,840 Speaker 4: Game five was the first game in this series where 199 00:09:40,840 --> 00:09:42,920 Speaker 4: I was like, oh, there's the thunder, Like I haven't 200 00:09:42,920 --> 00:09:46,240 Speaker 4: seen them since the Wolve series. And if that, I'm 201 00:09:46,520 --> 00:09:49,360 Speaker 4: resistant to these momentum shifts because if you'd ask me, 202 00:09:49,400 --> 00:09:51,400 Speaker 4: and if you told me, like, hey, they're gonna they're 203 00:09:51,400 --> 00:09:54,680 Speaker 4: gonna split in in OKAC one and two, I've been like, oh, 204 00:09:54,840 --> 00:09:58,679 Speaker 4: Indie wins three, OKAC wins four, OKAC wins five, Indie 205 00:09:58,679 --> 00:10:02,000 Speaker 4: wins six, Like that's a game script. The trends on 206 00:10:02,040 --> 00:10:04,760 Speaker 4: the spot with Tyre's Haliburton and probably suggests that OKAC 207 00:10:05,480 --> 00:10:09,320 Speaker 4: is better than what that that suggestion would lead you towards. 208 00:10:09,520 --> 00:10:11,400 Speaker 4: The number has been really interesting though, where this is 209 00:10:11,400 --> 00:10:13,680 Speaker 4: I mean this is also fighting over literally two possessions 210 00:10:13,720 --> 00:10:15,760 Speaker 4: here right Like this is right on the verge. If 211 00:10:15,800 --> 00:10:18,959 Speaker 4: it gets to four, that's like where the margin inside 212 00:10:18,960 --> 00:10:21,280 Speaker 4: of like five seconds, the team will let it go 213 00:10:21,320 --> 00:10:23,200 Speaker 4: like all right, we can't get this, we can't. We're 214 00:10:23,200 --> 00:10:25,960 Speaker 4: not gonna be able to close this gap. But at six, 215 00:10:26,320 --> 00:10:28,839 Speaker 4: now that's a different kind of margin here. So you're 216 00:10:28,880 --> 00:10:32,200 Speaker 4: fighting over these very very careful price points I think here, 217 00:10:32,840 --> 00:10:35,200 Speaker 4: and you're seeing a little bit more sharp action fighting 218 00:10:35,200 --> 00:10:37,240 Speaker 4: over this number than we've seen in most of the 219 00:10:37,240 --> 00:10:37,840 Speaker 4: other finals. 220 00:10:37,840 --> 00:10:40,520 Speaker 1: I think, are we getting a clue from this number 221 00:10:40,559 --> 00:10:44,120 Speaker 1: in the movement how much Tyrese Haliburton is worth to 222 00:10:44,160 --> 00:10:44,840 Speaker 1: the point spread? 223 00:10:46,080 --> 00:10:48,640 Speaker 4: Probably not, because it's like he's gonna play, like Rick 224 00:10:48,640 --> 00:10:51,760 Speaker 4: Carlisle said, He's going to play. And the question is, 225 00:10:51,960 --> 00:10:53,960 Speaker 4: now we're in this spot of trying to put a 226 00:10:54,120 --> 00:10:57,120 Speaker 4: number on an ephemeral thing because we always talk about 227 00:10:57,120 --> 00:10:59,880 Speaker 4: like he's ninety percent eight, like there's no way to 228 00:11:00,080 --> 00:11:03,640 Speaker 4: quantify that. You can't quantify the human body. So it's is, 229 00:11:03,840 --> 00:11:07,719 Speaker 4: if Tyrese is fifty or forty percent, this number has 230 00:11:07,720 --> 00:11:10,200 Speaker 4: to move two and a half three. If this is 231 00:11:10,360 --> 00:11:13,760 Speaker 4: Tyrese is seventy eighty percent, you're talking about a half point, 232 00:11:13,760 --> 00:11:14,680 Speaker 4: maybe a point. 233 00:11:14,840 --> 00:11:15,800 Speaker 5: And I think that there's. 234 00:11:15,600 --> 00:11:17,840 Speaker 4: Probably some of the buyback today based off of Look, 235 00:11:17,840 --> 00:11:19,600 Speaker 4: if Tyrese isn't one hundred percent, how are they going 236 00:11:19,640 --> 00:11:21,520 Speaker 4: to win this game? Like that's got to be some 237 00:11:21,559 --> 00:11:23,520 Speaker 4: of this conversation is just how are they going to 238 00:11:23,559 --> 00:11:25,720 Speaker 4: win this game if Tyrese is literally a decoy in 239 00:11:25,760 --> 00:11:29,640 Speaker 4: the corner. Now, the funny part is a really good 240 00:11:29,679 --> 00:11:32,880 Speaker 4: reaction would be it's Indiana, do not bring your logic 241 00:11:32,960 --> 00:11:36,040 Speaker 4: in here, because they have defied that consistently all playoffs. 242 00:11:36,840 --> 00:11:39,120 Speaker 4: But that's more of a gut feeling than a quantitative 243 00:11:39,200 --> 00:11:41,760 Speaker 4: edge perspective. So I think some of this is probably 244 00:11:41,760 --> 00:11:45,440 Speaker 4: reflective of the idea of Okase he's got momentum, the 245 00:11:45,520 --> 00:11:48,959 Speaker 4: trend support Game six road Favorites trying to close out 246 00:11:48,960 --> 00:11:51,360 Speaker 4: the series. Oka see is better based off of the 247 00:11:51,400 --> 00:11:54,320 Speaker 4: power rating. Still, they've re established control of the series, 248 00:11:54,360 --> 00:11:56,240 Speaker 4: and Tyrese Haliburton is not going to be one hundred 249 00:11:56,240 --> 00:11:58,760 Speaker 4: percent no matter what whatever he was before, because nobody's 250 00:11:58,760 --> 00:12:00,640 Speaker 4: one hundred percent right now. He was not now he's 251 00:12:00,679 --> 00:12:04,000 Speaker 4: seventy whatever. Wherever you land on, that has to I 252 00:12:04,000 --> 00:12:06,200 Speaker 4: think impact your cap on this. That's why it's gonna 253 00:12:06,200 --> 00:12:07,840 Speaker 4: be tough for pacers backers. 254 00:12:07,840 --> 00:12:09,959 Speaker 5: I think in the spot. 255 00:12:09,480 --> 00:12:13,480 Speaker 1: What's what's a little bit deceiving is Matt Maybe while 256 00:12:13,480 --> 00:12:15,680 Speaker 1: I'm asking this question, you can look up what was 257 00:12:15,720 --> 00:12:23,120 Speaker 1: the number in Game four in Indy Thunder were down 258 00:12:23,280 --> 00:12:29,480 Speaker 1: ten Shae hits, then they're down I think five, or 259 00:12:29,640 --> 00:12:34,320 Speaker 1: they're down four Shaye hits the three pointer, they're down 260 00:12:34,360 --> 00:12:37,120 Speaker 1: one oh three, one oh two. I think then he 261 00:12:37,240 --> 00:12:41,480 Speaker 1: hits that two pointer in the corner when he bumps 262 00:12:41,559 --> 00:12:45,760 Speaker 1: Nie Smith off. Now they're up one. From that point on, 263 00:12:47,160 --> 00:12:50,200 Speaker 1: the Pacers only score one more point. I think the 264 00:12:50,240 --> 00:12:54,679 Speaker 1: game closes seven. What was the spread in that game? 265 00:12:55,760 --> 00:13:00,120 Speaker 1: Game game four closed minus six ended at seven, And 266 00:13:00,240 --> 00:13:02,760 Speaker 1: thank you Matt Mitchell for throwing that in there. So 267 00:13:03,679 --> 00:13:06,720 Speaker 1: the Thunder ended up covering that game. What a deceptive 268 00:13:07,559 --> 00:13:10,280 Speaker 1: cover and what a bad be it. I think that's 269 00:13:10,280 --> 00:13:12,840 Speaker 1: what you're talking about when you're saying, look at this 270 00:13:12,960 --> 00:13:16,280 Speaker 1: number at the end, the number might be bigger than 271 00:13:16,280 --> 00:13:17,000 Speaker 1: the game appears. 272 00:13:17,800 --> 00:13:21,400 Speaker 5: The fears and it took. It took off ball fouls too. 273 00:13:21,440 --> 00:13:22,400 Speaker 5: That was the killer, right. 274 00:13:22,440 --> 00:13:25,400 Speaker 4: It was like they kept picking up off ball fouls 275 00:13:25,559 --> 00:13:28,360 Speaker 4: to get one and the ball, and that to me 276 00:13:28,480 --> 00:13:31,600 Speaker 4: is like absolutely crazy. Like Mitchell has commented here that 277 00:13:31,640 --> 00:13:34,280 Speaker 4: they covered for a total of six point seven seconds. Now, 278 00:13:34,400 --> 00:13:37,000 Speaker 4: I was on Thunder to cover in that game and 279 00:13:37,000 --> 00:13:38,400 Speaker 4: that was one of the all time like thank you 280 00:13:38,480 --> 00:13:42,800 Speaker 4: Jesus moments in that game. But yeah, like, Okaysee's ability 281 00:13:42,840 --> 00:13:47,240 Speaker 4: to win by their what is their overall margin on 282 00:13:47,360 --> 00:13:49,840 Speaker 4: the road has been extremely difficult throughout the playoffs. We 283 00:13:49,880 --> 00:13:52,960 Speaker 4: saw this not just the nugget series. We saw this 284 00:13:53,000 --> 00:13:55,160 Speaker 4: in Memphis, they go down thirty, they have to storm back, 285 00:13:55,200 --> 00:13:57,640 Speaker 4: but they don't cover. We see this in Minnesota, they 286 00:13:57,640 --> 00:14:01,200 Speaker 4: don't cover. They've consistently struggled to cover on the road. 287 00:14:01,280 --> 00:14:01,559 Speaker 5: Here. 288 00:14:02,480 --> 00:14:04,560 Speaker 4: The problem, I think is also a series flow, though. 289 00:14:04,880 --> 00:14:07,080 Speaker 4: If the Thunder are up in that fourth quarter and 290 00:14:07,160 --> 00:14:10,080 Speaker 4: Indy gets that sense of we can't do it, like 291 00:14:10,200 --> 00:14:12,520 Speaker 4: we're out, we've run out of gas and we're done. 292 00:14:12,679 --> 00:14:15,040 Speaker 4: There's a lot of spots where I've seen teams in 293 00:14:15,040 --> 00:14:18,320 Speaker 4: that kind of situation facing elimination down in the fourth 294 00:14:18,400 --> 00:14:21,600 Speaker 4: quarter and like you just don't and the other team, meanwhile, 295 00:14:21,680 --> 00:14:25,040 Speaker 4: is like, just keep punching, just keep punching them. 296 00:14:25,240 --> 00:14:26,920 Speaker 5: We can finish this, we can win the title. 297 00:14:27,080 --> 00:14:29,760 Speaker 4: That momentum shift, Like that's the highest point of adversity, 298 00:14:30,320 --> 00:14:34,479 Speaker 4: is you are down in the fourth quarter facing elimination 299 00:14:34,720 --> 00:14:38,080 Speaker 4: after playing for six months of basketball, you've gotten all 300 00:14:38,120 --> 00:14:41,240 Speaker 4: the way here. That's a really tough spot. And so 301 00:14:41,480 --> 00:14:43,960 Speaker 4: I think that both those things are true. Like it 302 00:14:44,000 --> 00:14:46,400 Speaker 4: doesn't feel like to me this is a I thought. 303 00:14:46,480 --> 00:14:50,680 Speaker 4: I thought Game five was a good Pacers cover Thunder 304 00:14:50,680 --> 00:14:52,800 Speaker 4: win spot, and the Thunder got over the line because 305 00:14:52,800 --> 00:14:54,400 Speaker 4: they were all the forced turnovers for the first time, 306 00:14:54,400 --> 00:14:56,080 Speaker 4: which is out of context for the series. 307 00:14:56,480 --> 00:14:58,320 Speaker 5: This one does not feel like that. This one does not. 308 00:14:58,400 --> 00:15:00,640 Speaker 4: I feel like, if you're look, if you like, you 309 00:15:00,640 --> 00:15:02,520 Speaker 4: need to be on money line. If they're going to 310 00:15:02,560 --> 00:15:04,360 Speaker 4: be within range of this game, they're going to have 311 00:15:04,400 --> 00:15:05,000 Speaker 4: the extra edge. 312 00:15:05,040 --> 00:15:07,120 Speaker 5: We can do this. We're right there. We can win 313 00:15:07,160 --> 00:15:07,640 Speaker 5: this game. 314 00:15:08,480 --> 00:15:10,800 Speaker 4: Thunder winning close to me, is the least likely of 315 00:15:10,840 --> 00:15:11,640 Speaker 4: the outcomes. 316 00:15:11,960 --> 00:15:14,400 Speaker 3: I was in the sportsbook for that game, that game four, 317 00:15:15,080 --> 00:15:16,960 Speaker 3: just being on the professionals we bet on the NBA. 318 00:15:17,040 --> 00:15:20,240 Speaker 3: I love talking about it because the NBA Finals, the 319 00:15:20,280 --> 00:15:23,280 Speaker 3: books get so sharp. I remember at some point they 320 00:15:23,280 --> 00:15:25,760 Speaker 3: were down, like you said, they were down one or 321 00:15:25,760 --> 00:15:28,400 Speaker 3: two points, and SGA gets them back into the game 322 00:15:28,440 --> 00:15:30,600 Speaker 3: that he basically gets them up by one, and my 323 00:15:30,640 --> 00:15:32,160 Speaker 3: buddy turning to me, he said, they're going to somehow 324 00:15:32,200 --> 00:15:34,880 Speaker 3: cover this game. And while only hitting or two May 325 00:15:34,960 --> 00:15:36,800 Speaker 3: threes at the time, and then afink he hit one more, 326 00:15:37,040 --> 00:15:39,160 Speaker 3: so they're up to three mad threes. He's like, this 327 00:15:39,200 --> 00:15:41,320 Speaker 3: is why I love betting, though, because every sucker in 328 00:15:41,360 --> 00:15:44,440 Speaker 3: this room is on the Pacers because everyone knows that 329 00:15:44,600 --> 00:15:47,360 Speaker 3: stat that OKAC has not covered on the road and 330 00:15:47,400 --> 00:15:48,760 Speaker 3: he's like, I know this is going to land on 331 00:15:48,840 --> 00:15:50,800 Speaker 3: seven and sure enough, you know the exact what was 332 00:15:50,800 --> 00:15:52,920 Speaker 3: it at one eleven and one oh four? Yeah? I 333 00:15:52,960 --> 00:15:54,680 Speaker 3: turned to him, I was like, I love this is 334 00:15:54,680 --> 00:15:57,400 Speaker 3: why I love betting so much, because it's like you 335 00:15:57,480 --> 00:15:59,760 Speaker 3: knew any better knew that was coming, right though. Stupid 336 00:15:59,760 --> 00:16:03,360 Speaker 3: free throws, the Pacers missing free throws. So my view 337 00:16:03,440 --> 00:16:05,400 Speaker 3: of this, Matt is like you're saying that back and 338 00:16:05,440 --> 00:16:07,760 Speaker 3: forth on this number right now is the professionals are 339 00:16:07,760 --> 00:16:10,560 Speaker 3: fighting because the books are getting so sharp, right, I 340 00:16:10,560 --> 00:16:13,120 Speaker 3: mean last game, what did they what was the cover 341 00:16:13,240 --> 00:16:14,880 Speaker 3: that was nine and a half? I think the final 342 00:16:14,920 --> 00:16:17,280 Speaker 3: point was eleven? Right, was a one oh nine? Right? 343 00:16:17,360 --> 00:16:21,760 Speaker 3: So like the books, even with you know, Halliburna being injured, 344 00:16:22,320 --> 00:16:25,080 Speaker 3: it's still right there. Like the books are so sharp 345 00:16:25,160 --> 00:16:28,520 Speaker 3: right now. So anyone listening to this just be careful, 346 00:16:28,520 --> 00:16:30,640 Speaker 3: like you're betting into a right now, a market that 347 00:16:30,840 --> 00:16:34,120 Speaker 3: is at the highest level. Like the books just seem 348 00:16:34,160 --> 00:16:36,600 Speaker 3: like they're captinets so well. So I like what I'm 349 00:16:36,680 --> 00:16:38,280 Speaker 3: viewing here with Matt Moore talking about I like the 350 00:16:38,320 --> 00:16:40,920 Speaker 3: adjusted line, right, is this not a nice spot to take? 351 00:16:41,360 --> 00:16:43,920 Speaker 3: OKAC minus twelve and a half, a little Brandon Anderson 352 00:16:44,360 --> 00:16:46,840 Speaker 3: or take the Pacers money line, right. I love that 353 00:16:46,920 --> 00:16:48,280 Speaker 3: type of scenario here. Or do you think this is 354 00:16:48,320 --> 00:16:50,400 Speaker 3: gonna be a closer game and I'm giving a credit format. 355 00:16:50,640 --> 00:16:52,440 Speaker 5: I don't mind this as an alt spot. 356 00:16:52,720 --> 00:16:54,640 Speaker 4: The trick is though, one of the things that because 357 00:16:54,640 --> 00:16:56,840 Speaker 4: like I started Live Bett and thunder Alts last night 358 00:16:56,880 --> 00:17:00,280 Speaker 4: first quarter because I was like, man, pacers are dead here, 359 00:17:00,320 --> 00:17:01,720 Speaker 4: They're just looking like they're out of it. 360 00:17:02,040 --> 00:17:04,359 Speaker 5: Okaysey's got this. If okase wins. 361 00:17:04,119 --> 00:17:06,200 Speaker 4: At home, their average margin and victory in the playoffs 362 00:17:06,240 --> 00:17:09,080 Speaker 4: is twenty six points. This is good value here with 363 00:17:09,119 --> 00:17:14,320 Speaker 4: this kind of number. Indiana's got a rare ability to 364 00:17:14,680 --> 00:17:20,320 Speaker 4: just never get kicked off the ladder, like Okay Tyre's 365 00:17:20,320 --> 00:17:24,200 Speaker 4: Halliburton's hurt, Pascal si Okam seeing three defenders, Miles Turner 366 00:17:24,240 --> 00:17:25,359 Speaker 4: can't do anything. 367 00:17:25,760 --> 00:17:26,679 Speaker 5: Here comes TJ. 368 00:17:26,800 --> 00:17:31,639 Speaker 4: McConnell, gonna make things happen. Here's Ben dig Mathern hitting 369 00:17:31,720 --> 00:17:35,440 Speaker 4: big shots to keep them within range. And Okasey's half 370 00:17:35,480 --> 00:17:37,640 Speaker 4: court This is the big thing. If you really want 371 00:17:37,640 --> 00:17:40,160 Speaker 4: to know the reason, it's that Okasey's half court offense 372 00:17:40,560 --> 00:17:44,520 Speaker 4: never gears up, their defense gears up their half court 373 00:17:44,560 --> 00:17:46,560 Speaker 4: offense stays at the same. 374 00:17:46,440 --> 00:17:49,040 Speaker 5: Level or lower. That's all they really do. 375 00:17:49,080 --> 00:17:51,960 Speaker 4: They never hit this this gear where you're like, man, 376 00:17:52,160 --> 00:17:55,040 Speaker 4: what an incredible offensive performance. They got an amazing game 377 00:17:55,040 --> 00:17:57,719 Speaker 4: from Jadub, they got a good game from Shay. They 378 00:17:57,760 --> 00:18:00,240 Speaker 4: generate a lot of free throws for Shay, But like, 379 00:18:00,280 --> 00:18:03,440 Speaker 4: this wasn't a they're absolutely killing them because they don't 380 00:18:03,480 --> 00:18:05,280 Speaker 4: really have that gear offensively. 381 00:18:05,280 --> 00:18:06,359 Speaker 5: It's all in the defensive end. 382 00:18:06,359 --> 00:18:09,240 Speaker 4: It's why I like thunder Team total over and didn't 383 00:18:09,240 --> 00:18:11,440 Speaker 4: want Pacers anything. 384 00:18:11,040 --> 00:18:13,560 Speaker 5: On their team total or the combined over. 385 00:18:13,840 --> 00:18:16,560 Speaker 4: I only wanted Thunder Team total because I was like, 386 00:18:16,560 --> 00:18:18,760 Speaker 4: they're gonna go over this number because of the speed 387 00:18:18,800 --> 00:18:21,919 Speaker 4: of the game. But their offense never really gears up. 388 00:18:22,000 --> 00:18:23,760 Speaker 4: It just you hit a couple of more threes or not. 389 00:18:24,080 --> 00:18:26,399 Speaker 4: They're not gonna have this dominant performance where they blow 390 00:18:26,440 --> 00:18:29,639 Speaker 4: you out because they shot forty eight percent from three. 391 00:18:29,680 --> 00:18:30,520 Speaker 5: That's not gonna happen. 392 00:18:30,520 --> 00:18:32,280 Speaker 4: If they're gonna blow you out, it's because you score 393 00:18:32,359 --> 00:18:34,760 Speaker 4: eighty and that's hard to do against an Indiana team 394 00:18:34,760 --> 00:18:36,800 Speaker 4: that's whose offensive floor is so high. 395 00:18:37,560 --> 00:18:39,399 Speaker 1: When you look at this thunder team, I was watching 396 00:18:39,400 --> 00:18:43,160 Speaker 1: this game last night and everyone talks about dynasty. They 397 00:18:43,160 --> 00:18:46,159 Speaker 1: threw up that graphic about the Blazers and this is 398 00:18:46,160 --> 00:18:49,160 Speaker 1: the second youngest team since the Blazers. 399 00:18:48,560 --> 00:18:50,040 Speaker 2: That has a chance to win a title. 400 00:18:50,160 --> 00:18:53,680 Speaker 1: And Shay is twenty six and Jalen Williams is twenty three. 401 00:18:53,800 --> 00:18:56,560 Speaker 1: And obviously Shay's going to get a bag. He's going 402 00:18:56,600 --> 00:18:58,919 Speaker 1: to get seventy million a year, and Jalen Williams when 403 00:18:58,920 --> 00:19:01,800 Speaker 1: he's eligible, is going to get at whatever max deal 404 00:19:02,240 --> 00:19:05,199 Speaker 1: he's eligible for. You're gonna have a construct similar to 405 00:19:05,200 --> 00:19:09,120 Speaker 1: what the Celtics have right where you're paying north of 406 00:19:09,840 --> 00:19:13,000 Speaker 1: probably could be by then four hundred million dollars to 407 00:19:13,119 --> 00:19:19,440 Speaker 1: Shay Gilgis Alexander and to Jalen Williams. It's hard to 408 00:19:19,600 --> 00:19:23,399 Speaker 1: maintain a dynasty when you're spending that much money on 409 00:19:23,480 --> 00:19:27,520 Speaker 1: two players handicapped. For me, what this team looks like 410 00:19:27,800 --> 00:19:30,080 Speaker 1: over the next two to three years, who are the 411 00:19:30,080 --> 00:19:32,560 Speaker 1: pieces they can keep, Who are the players that are 412 00:19:32,560 --> 00:19:34,240 Speaker 1: gonna have to go somewhere else to get a bag 413 00:19:34,280 --> 00:19:34,880 Speaker 1: of cash? 414 00:19:35,119 --> 00:19:38,280 Speaker 4: Yeah, it's a great question. So I think there's a 415 00:19:38,280 --> 00:19:40,200 Speaker 4: lot of interesting elements in this. One of the things 416 00:19:40,200 --> 00:19:42,280 Speaker 4: that we're seeing. Zachloe was talking about this morning on 417 00:19:42,359 --> 00:19:43,760 Speaker 4: his show, and this thing I've been talking about for 418 00:19:43,840 --> 00:19:46,119 Speaker 4: a while. One of the reasons that Memphis made the 419 00:19:46,160 --> 00:19:49,919 Speaker 4: Desmond Baine trade. It is very difficult right now to 420 00:19:50,080 --> 00:19:53,399 Speaker 4: build with three players making max money and the numbers 421 00:19:53,440 --> 00:19:55,119 Speaker 4: I've kind of put on it relative to where the 422 00:19:55,119 --> 00:19:56,560 Speaker 4: cap is now. It's going to go up with a 423 00:19:56,760 --> 00:19:59,840 Speaker 4: new media deal. But you can't have three guys make 424 00:19:59,880 --> 00:20:03,159 Speaker 4: it fifty million. You can have two, never three. You 425 00:20:03,240 --> 00:20:05,920 Speaker 4: need two guys making fifty million, one guy making above 426 00:20:05,960 --> 00:20:08,600 Speaker 4: thirty million, and then a bunch of guys making between 427 00:20:08,640 --> 00:20:11,879 Speaker 4: twenty and five. And that's how you fill in that roster. 428 00:20:12,000 --> 00:20:15,000 Speaker 4: That's the new model the owners built into the CBA. Well, 429 00:20:15,040 --> 00:20:18,480 Speaker 4: guess what, Chet Holmer and Jadab are both extension eligible 430 00:20:18,600 --> 00:20:21,720 Speaker 4: this summer, and they're gonna get the bag because you 431 00:20:21,760 --> 00:20:24,959 Speaker 4: can see how valuable they are. If Victor wemen Yama 432 00:20:25,640 --> 00:20:30,119 Speaker 4: had not gotten hurt and Chet Holmgren had not gotten hurt, 433 00:20:31,119 --> 00:20:33,480 Speaker 4: I still think Chet might have won Defensive Player of 434 00:20:33,520 --> 00:20:35,959 Speaker 4: the Year, that's how good he is defensively. 435 00:20:36,240 --> 00:20:37,040 Speaker 5: He's insane. 436 00:20:37,480 --> 00:20:39,959 Speaker 4: Jadob I mean, last night was for all of us 437 00:20:39,960 --> 00:20:41,959 Speaker 4: on jadub Island was like, take a look at this. 438 00:20:42,640 --> 00:20:45,159 Speaker 5: So they're gonna extenend those guys. They got one more 439 00:20:45,240 --> 00:20:46,560 Speaker 5: year because those extensions. 440 00:20:46,160 --> 00:20:48,040 Speaker 4: Don't kick in til twenty six, twenty seven, the year 441 00:20:48,080 --> 00:20:50,400 Speaker 4: after next year, they got one more year. And guess 442 00:20:50,400 --> 00:20:53,560 Speaker 4: who comes off the books then Isaiah Hartenstein. So you 443 00:20:53,640 --> 00:20:57,000 Speaker 4: clear off the money. Then Chet moves into the center role. 444 00:20:57,040 --> 00:20:59,679 Speaker 4: Hopefully he eats some spaghetti and gets a little bit thicker, 445 00:21:00,040 --> 00:21:02,160 Speaker 4: he can handle getting bumped on the interior and play 446 00:21:02,160 --> 00:21:06,199 Speaker 4: small ball five. You're gonna have guys. They'll fill in 447 00:21:06,240 --> 00:21:08,840 Speaker 4: the rest of that roster. But here's the big question 448 00:21:09,000 --> 00:21:12,879 Speaker 4: I have, Chad. I look at the Jadab situation and 449 00:21:12,960 --> 00:21:16,320 Speaker 4: I think a lot of James Harden twenty twelve. And 450 00:21:16,359 --> 00:21:19,040 Speaker 4: the misconception has always been that that move was made 451 00:21:19,040 --> 00:21:21,600 Speaker 4: because ownership was cheap, And that move was made because 452 00:21:21,680 --> 00:21:25,040 Speaker 4: James Harden knew that he could be an MVP candidate 453 00:21:25,359 --> 00:21:28,399 Speaker 4: with a exclusive deal with Adidas, being the front of 454 00:21:28,480 --> 00:21:31,439 Speaker 4: their entire shoe line and be that kind of a 455 00:21:31,480 --> 00:21:33,919 Speaker 4: star in that kind of a market in Houston. He 456 00:21:34,000 --> 00:21:37,680 Speaker 4: knew that kind of earning potential. Jade dubb is gonna 457 00:21:37,680 --> 00:21:40,000 Speaker 4: have be faced with that same decision, and Jadab may 458 00:21:40,040 --> 00:21:42,000 Speaker 4: have a different set of priorities and maybe like, nope, 459 00:21:42,040 --> 00:21:43,800 Speaker 4: I want to be here. This is what I want. 460 00:21:44,560 --> 00:21:47,439 Speaker 4: But even then, I'm of the belief you're gonna have 461 00:21:47,480 --> 00:21:49,800 Speaker 4: to choose between Chet and Jadub. Eventually you can do 462 00:21:49,840 --> 00:21:51,920 Speaker 4: it for maybe a couple of years if Bennet's like, yes, 463 00:21:51,920 --> 00:21:55,000 Speaker 4: we've won two championships, I will pay for the the 464 00:21:55,080 --> 00:21:58,359 Speaker 4: second Apron tax for a year or two. But eventually 465 00:21:58,920 --> 00:22:01,160 Speaker 4: you're gonna hit that snag. It's like things didn't go right, 466 00:22:01,160 --> 00:22:04,200 Speaker 4: the chemistry wasn't right, the fit wasn't right. Guys misshot, 467 00:22:04,280 --> 00:22:06,520 Speaker 4: someone got injured, and now it's the second round, and 468 00:22:06,560 --> 00:22:08,479 Speaker 4: now the pressure is how do you get back to 469 00:22:08,520 --> 00:22:10,480 Speaker 4: that top level? And the only way to do that 470 00:22:10,880 --> 00:22:12,560 Speaker 4: is to trade one of those Big three because the 471 00:22:12,600 --> 00:22:15,959 Speaker 4: second Apron rules in the NBACBA do not allow it. 472 00:22:17,080 --> 00:22:21,119 Speaker 4: The other big one, Cason Wallace, is extension eligible at 473 00:22:21,240 --> 00:22:23,800 Speaker 4: next summer, and to me, Cason Wallace is a guy 474 00:22:23,800 --> 00:22:25,560 Speaker 4: that I would absolutely want to be investing in, Like 475 00:22:25,600 --> 00:22:28,159 Speaker 4: he's a sneaky guy that can wind up being an 476 00:22:28,200 --> 00:22:31,320 Speaker 4: elite level defender. He's got more bounce off creation, he's 477 00:22:31,359 --> 00:22:34,040 Speaker 4: a good shooter. Like Caseon Wallace. Next year maybe one 478 00:22:34,080 --> 00:22:35,560 Speaker 4: of the biggest names that we're talking about on the 479 00:22:35,560 --> 00:22:38,440 Speaker 4: free agency market and talking about possible sign and trade 480 00:22:38,480 --> 00:22:41,760 Speaker 4: situations for OKC Kenrick Williams next summer. 481 00:22:41,800 --> 00:22:43,000 Speaker 5: I think is gonna be a big choice. 482 00:22:43,040 --> 00:22:45,840 Speaker 4: Okac's got next year to contend. They might be the 483 00:22:45,840 --> 00:22:48,199 Speaker 4: first team to go back to back since twenty eighteen. 484 00:22:48,640 --> 00:22:51,240 Speaker 4: But the talk around the league and all these shows 485 00:22:51,240 --> 00:22:53,800 Speaker 4: of like how many titles is OKC gonna win? I'm 486 00:22:53,840 --> 00:22:56,040 Speaker 4: setting the over at two and a half. I'm like, 487 00:22:56,520 --> 00:23:01,600 Speaker 4: let's settle down because this era is absolutely designed to 488 00:23:01,760 --> 00:23:05,200 Speaker 4: prevent that, and it's even harder in markets like Okay. 489 00:23:05,240 --> 00:23:09,640 Speaker 1: See all right, So that's exactly what I wanted to hear. 490 00:23:10,119 --> 00:23:15,120 Speaker 1: And how what will be the salary Jalen Williams can get? 491 00:23:15,160 --> 00:23:17,840 Speaker 1: What is the salary check Holmegrin can get? What does 492 00:23:17,880 --> 00:23:21,160 Speaker 1: the salary Shay can get? He can get like four 493 00:23:21,280 --> 00:23:22,000 Speaker 1: for two eighty? 494 00:23:22,119 --> 00:23:23,399 Speaker 2: Right? So is that what it is? 495 00:23:23,720 --> 00:23:23,920 Speaker 3: Yeah? 496 00:23:24,119 --> 00:23:26,040 Speaker 4: I think it's four for two eighty, depending on whether 497 00:23:26,119 --> 00:23:27,960 Speaker 4: or not he qualifies. I think he's going to qualify 498 00:23:28,000 --> 00:23:31,280 Speaker 4: on your first team All NBA for the Supermax. 499 00:23:32,320 --> 00:23:34,320 Speaker 5: I'll check on that. So that one's a tough one. 500 00:23:34,480 --> 00:23:36,840 Speaker 4: The reality the better way to think about it instead 501 00:23:36,840 --> 00:23:39,520 Speaker 4: of getting caught into the specific numbers. Is just to 502 00:23:39,560 --> 00:23:42,040 Speaker 4: think about if you're making this money, you're making over fifty, 503 00:23:42,240 --> 00:23:44,200 Speaker 4: you're making over fifty mil. And if you're making over 504 00:23:44,240 --> 00:23:46,680 Speaker 4: fifty mil, if you're north of those numbers, even at forty, 505 00:23:47,040 --> 00:23:49,480 Speaker 4: it gets really tough to keep those course together. And 506 00:23:49,520 --> 00:23:51,000 Speaker 4: then you're going to think about the next time their 507 00:23:51,000 --> 00:23:53,320 Speaker 4: extension eligible down the line and what that's going to 508 00:23:53,400 --> 00:23:54,120 Speaker 4: look like as well. 509 00:23:55,400 --> 00:23:59,960 Speaker 1: All right, So Simon, before we came on, we were 510 00:24:00,119 --> 00:24:05,480 Speaker 1: talking about Kevin Durant, how do we play this market, Matt, 511 00:24:05,600 --> 00:24:07,439 Speaker 1: how do we think about where Durant is going to go? 512 00:24:07,560 --> 00:24:11,480 Speaker 1: And how can we preemptively get into the Kevin Durant 513 00:24:11,520 --> 00:24:16,560 Speaker 1: sweepstakes by predicting the best landing spot with the best value. 514 00:24:17,320 --> 00:24:19,160 Speaker 4: So there's a couple of these that I think are 515 00:24:19,200 --> 00:24:21,879 Speaker 4: interesting as ways to kind of look at it. I 516 00:24:21,920 --> 00:24:23,880 Speaker 4: think the best way to do it is to think 517 00:24:23,920 --> 00:24:27,520 Speaker 4: about what you're going to do immediately in the aftermath 518 00:24:28,280 --> 00:24:29,560 Speaker 4: an ideal situation. 519 00:24:30,920 --> 00:24:33,440 Speaker 5: I understand because tav we were talking before our show. 520 00:24:33,320 --> 00:24:37,119 Speaker 4: About like the outsized reaction to Desmond Dane right Arthury 521 00:24:37,119 --> 00:24:39,440 Speaker 4: Mitchell on the show, like the outside reaction that trade, 522 00:24:39,560 --> 00:24:41,520 Speaker 4: but like the dream scenario for a lot of us 523 00:24:41,640 --> 00:24:45,600 Speaker 4: is that Durant gets traded to Miami and Miami immediately 524 00:24:45,640 --> 00:24:50,040 Speaker 4: gets steamed, and then Orlando will fall into vision odds, 525 00:24:50,080 --> 00:24:52,240 Speaker 4: and that's going to be I think, a great opportunity 526 00:24:52,520 --> 00:24:55,480 Speaker 4: to get in or in Orlando. The biggest thing I 527 00:24:55,760 --> 00:24:58,440 Speaker 4: do want to tell listeners, don't get into the market 528 00:24:58,440 --> 00:25:00,480 Speaker 4: in the first twenty four hours after a trade. Do 529 00:25:00,600 --> 00:25:02,600 Speaker 4: not do it, like unless you are ahead of the move, 530 00:25:02,880 --> 00:25:04,640 Speaker 4: like if you were in the thirteen seconds that you've 531 00:25:04,640 --> 00:25:08,000 Speaker 4: got before news breaks and that market moves. Unless you're there, 532 00:25:08,200 --> 00:25:09,280 Speaker 4: do not buy into it. 533 00:25:09,280 --> 00:25:10,119 Speaker 5: It's never worth it. 534 00:25:10,200 --> 00:25:13,399 Speaker 4: These moves are always these trades are always exaggerated in 535 00:25:13,440 --> 00:25:14,960 Speaker 4: the market, and you're always gonna be able to get 536 00:25:14,960 --> 00:25:17,200 Speaker 4: a better price no matter what it is, Like it's 537 00:25:17,280 --> 00:25:18,600 Speaker 4: very rare that you don't get a better price. 538 00:25:19,320 --> 00:25:22,920 Speaker 3: And also you're saying, Matt Metell, I mean more, it's 539 00:25:22,960 --> 00:25:25,640 Speaker 3: be careful people when you're betting in those markets. That's 540 00:25:25,640 --> 00:25:28,360 Speaker 3: how you get banned. Like people don't realize it. Like books, 541 00:25:28,800 --> 00:25:30,639 Speaker 3: they're looking for people like you that are ahead of 542 00:25:30,640 --> 00:25:32,720 Speaker 3: the marketer or you're getting intel quicker than them. So 543 00:25:33,280 --> 00:25:34,959 Speaker 3: I feel like he's giving you good advice here of 544 00:25:35,040 --> 00:25:37,560 Speaker 3: just being careful of betting these type of numbers because 545 00:25:37,920 --> 00:25:40,440 Speaker 3: either you're gonna get got because you're getting bad information, 546 00:25:40,800 --> 00:25:43,320 Speaker 3: or you're making a bad decision trying to buy in 547 00:25:43,400 --> 00:25:44,760 Speaker 3: early and try to get a good number. 548 00:25:45,240 --> 00:25:48,840 Speaker 4: So as far as Katie's landing spot right now, the 549 00:25:48,840 --> 00:25:51,680 Speaker 4: favorites in the market are tied between Miami and Houston. 550 00:25:52,240 --> 00:25:54,760 Speaker 4: I would say Houston is more likely because that's a 551 00:25:54,760 --> 00:25:57,600 Speaker 4: solution where everyone wins. Katie wants to go to Houston, 552 00:25:58,040 --> 00:26:01,080 Speaker 4: Houston gets an offensive upgrade, and Houston can afford to 553 00:26:01,119 --> 00:26:04,240 Speaker 4: send stuff back to Phoenix that Phoenix isn't gonna be 554 00:26:04,320 --> 00:26:07,280 Speaker 4: thrilled with. It's not the hall they want. But if 555 00:26:07,280 --> 00:26:12,919 Speaker 4: the options are Andrew Wiggins and a bad first or 556 00:26:13,680 --> 00:26:18,760 Speaker 4: Jalen Green potentially Jabari Smith and a pretty good first, 557 00:26:18,840 --> 00:26:21,640 Speaker 4: especially if it's one of your own that they own 558 00:26:21,760 --> 00:26:25,800 Speaker 4: all of, that's a pretty good situation. Phoenix will Houston 559 00:26:25,840 --> 00:26:28,160 Speaker 4: will try and squeeze him for it. The best way 560 00:26:28,160 --> 00:26:29,439 Speaker 4: to kind of think of it. For Houston, there is 561 00:26:29,480 --> 00:26:33,320 Speaker 4: a disagreement there. I think Imadoka wants Kevin Durant. He 562 00:26:33,359 --> 00:26:35,280 Speaker 4: wants to win now because coaches want to win now, 563 00:26:35,359 --> 00:26:37,560 Speaker 4: and he knows like, give me Kevin Durant and my 564 00:26:37,640 --> 00:26:42,119 Speaker 4: defense and we'll go win games. Raphael Stone GM I 565 00:26:42,119 --> 00:26:43,639 Speaker 4: think is like we got to be we can. 566 00:26:43,560 --> 00:26:44,639 Speaker 5: Get a top. 567 00:26:44,800 --> 00:26:47,560 Speaker 4: Like if we keep squeezing them, we can get Devin Booker, 568 00:26:48,080 --> 00:26:52,800 Speaker 4: who's younger, a lot more upside. We can have him forever, 569 00:26:53,000 --> 00:26:55,080 Speaker 4: or we can go get another guy. With all these assets, 570 00:26:55,840 --> 00:26:58,960 Speaker 4: our investment in Phoenix's draft picks are only going to improve. 571 00:26:58,960 --> 00:27:01,840 Speaker 4: Look how desperate they are and that battle I think 572 00:27:01,880 --> 00:27:04,400 Speaker 4: is really interesting, Like does Phoenix wanted does Houston want 573 00:27:04,400 --> 00:27:07,159 Speaker 4: to help out Phoenix in this deal? But they are 574 00:27:07,200 --> 00:27:09,280 Speaker 4: a team that can help them out without saving them, 575 00:27:09,400 --> 00:27:11,480 Speaker 4: And then so to me, between those two is valuable. 576 00:27:11,800 --> 00:27:14,480 Speaker 4: The long shot for me is the Clippers at fifty 577 00:27:14,480 --> 00:27:17,960 Speaker 4: to one. They have consistently been They got popped up 578 00:27:17,960 --> 00:27:18,520 Speaker 4: over the weekend. 579 00:27:18,560 --> 00:27:19,879 Speaker 5: First it was like, oh, yeah. 580 00:27:19,760 --> 00:27:24,480 Speaker 4: It's Houston, It's Houston, San Antonio, Miami, New York, Minnesota, 581 00:27:24,560 --> 00:27:26,200 Speaker 4: and then all of a sudden, the Clippers started popping 582 00:27:26,240 --> 00:27:27,800 Speaker 4: up over the weekend. They've had a lot of talks, 583 00:27:27,840 --> 00:27:31,399 Speaker 4: Like I've heard about Clippers talks four weeks now. I 584 00:27:31,440 --> 00:27:34,520 Speaker 4: don't think there is substantive as talks between Minnesota, Houston, 585 00:27:34,640 --> 00:27:37,480 Speaker 4: San Antonio, even Miami. I don't think there is substantive, 586 00:27:38,040 --> 00:27:40,160 Speaker 4: but I do think that those conversations have been held, 587 00:27:40,520 --> 00:27:42,840 Speaker 4: and I think that the Clippers, especially if you're matt 588 00:27:42,960 --> 00:27:46,120 Speaker 4: Ishbia and you're like, I don't want to be bad, 589 00:27:46,160 --> 00:27:48,040 Speaker 4: I don't care about draft picks. I want to win games. 590 00:27:48,080 --> 00:27:49,160 Speaker 4: I told them that we would win. 591 00:27:49,320 --> 00:27:51,080 Speaker 5: Let's win. We got Devin Booker, let's win. 592 00:27:51,840 --> 00:27:54,320 Speaker 4: The Clippers can at least give you, like Norman Powell, 593 00:27:54,359 --> 00:27:56,600 Speaker 4: guys that will help you win. Now they're gonna want 594 00:27:56,680 --> 00:27:58,359 Speaker 4: Zoobach and I don't think the Clippers are gonna give 595 00:27:58,400 --> 00:27:58,719 Speaker 4: them up. 596 00:27:58,760 --> 00:27:59,879 Speaker 5: But if they were to ever. 597 00:27:59,800 --> 00:28:02,520 Speaker 4: Change on that, then boy, would that be a really 598 00:28:02,520 --> 00:28:04,600 Speaker 4: great situation to be a terrible trade for the Clippers. 599 00:28:05,080 --> 00:28:07,800 Speaker 4: But I also think Balmer, you know, coming off of 600 00:28:07,800 --> 00:28:11,040 Speaker 4: that playoff loss, wants to get more people into that 601 00:28:11,119 --> 00:28:14,280 Speaker 4: great new arena. I think that Katie makes a lot 602 00:28:14,320 --> 00:28:16,280 Speaker 4: of sense for them putting them back with Harden. So 603 00:28:16,520 --> 00:28:18,640 Speaker 4: Clippers fifty to one to me is the best long 604 00:28:18,680 --> 00:28:19,439 Speaker 4: shot in the market. 605 00:28:20,359 --> 00:28:21,639 Speaker 3: Yeah, I feel like what you touched on that we 606 00:28:21,680 --> 00:28:24,760 Speaker 3: all know the East is wide open, you know, the professionals, 607 00:28:24,760 --> 00:28:27,280 Speaker 3: and it feels like the public are final. It's Orlando, right, 608 00:28:27,359 --> 00:28:29,359 Speaker 3: Is that the team that everyone's just piling in on 609 00:28:29,440 --> 00:28:31,920 Speaker 3: now to win the East because they're just a team 610 00:28:31,960 --> 00:28:33,720 Speaker 3: that people think they can make up Pacers run he 611 00:28:33,760 --> 00:28:35,879 Speaker 3: or Is that kind of fool's gold here that we're buying. 612 00:28:36,760 --> 00:28:37,480 Speaker 5: I think. 613 00:28:39,360 --> 00:28:42,320 Speaker 4: I think that nobody really knows yet. Like I wouldn't 614 00:28:42,320 --> 00:28:44,840 Speaker 4: buy into the East market at all right now because 615 00:28:44,880 --> 00:28:46,440 Speaker 4: you don't know if the Knicks are going to move 616 00:28:46,680 --> 00:28:48,440 Speaker 4: somebody to make another thing, because they got a lot 617 00:28:48,440 --> 00:28:51,000 Speaker 4: of chemistry questions, like, they got things they got to 618 00:28:51,000 --> 00:28:54,160 Speaker 4: figure out. I think Indiana you got to wait to 619 00:28:54,200 --> 00:28:57,400 Speaker 4: see what Miles Turner does. Like Miles Turner is up there. 620 00:28:57,560 --> 00:28:59,000 Speaker 4: If some team just comes in and is like, yeah, 621 00:28:59,000 --> 00:29:01,360 Speaker 4: we don't care, we'll pay forty Monell that's a huge 622 00:29:01,360 --> 00:29:04,000 Speaker 4: price for Miles Turner. It's also ten more than what 623 00:29:04,160 --> 00:29:06,160 Speaker 4: Indiana wants to pay him. I think they settle at 624 00:29:06,160 --> 00:29:10,320 Speaker 4: thirty five. But if somebody offers him forty, then you 625 00:29:10,360 --> 00:29:13,040 Speaker 4: could probably get Miles Turner in free agency. The Calves 626 00:29:13,080 --> 00:29:14,880 Speaker 4: are probably good value just because they're going to return 627 00:29:14,960 --> 00:29:16,760 Speaker 4: the same kind of guys, but they might make a move. 628 00:29:16,800 --> 00:29:18,720 Speaker 4: I think Jared Allen might be gone and you don't 629 00:29:18,760 --> 00:29:21,920 Speaker 4: know what they're going to get back for him. Orlando's 630 00:29:21,920 --> 00:29:24,160 Speaker 4: maybe good value at plus eight hundred, but I'm still 631 00:29:24,240 --> 00:29:27,600 Speaker 4: kind of like, are you really going to want a 632 00:29:27,680 --> 00:29:30,360 Speaker 4: big position on Orlando if they're in the conference finals 633 00:29:30,440 --> 00:29:32,520 Speaker 4: versus a veteran team that's been there and knows what 634 00:29:32,560 --> 00:29:34,920 Speaker 4: they're doing. Like, I like Orlando a lot, but I'm 635 00:29:34,920 --> 00:29:36,360 Speaker 4: not sure that I feel like they're going to be 636 00:29:36,400 --> 00:29:38,480 Speaker 4: the thunder. I don't think they're going to be that 637 00:29:38,600 --> 00:29:41,600 Speaker 4: kind of a team. Pistons actually, to me, is probably 638 00:29:41,640 --> 00:29:43,800 Speaker 4: the best value at twenty to one because they're only 639 00:29:43,840 --> 00:29:46,000 Speaker 4: going to get better and they got some They are 640 00:29:46,040 --> 00:29:48,640 Speaker 4: shopping in free agency like they are going for it. 641 00:29:48,760 --> 00:29:50,720 Speaker 4: So I think Detroit's really interesting at twenty to one. 642 00:29:51,600 --> 00:29:53,240 Speaker 3: It's going to be interesting, though, chat to see what 643 00:29:53,360 --> 00:29:55,760 Speaker 3: free agent wants to go to Detroit though, right like 644 00:29:55,840 --> 00:29:59,040 Speaker 3: in the NBA, like we're talking about Miami San Antonio, 645 00:29:59,200 --> 00:30:01,520 Speaker 3: like it's it's gonna be funny with Kevin Durant to 646 00:30:01,600 --> 00:30:02,960 Speaker 3: somehow ended up in Detroit. 647 00:30:04,480 --> 00:30:06,400 Speaker 1: Well, look, he doesn't want to go to Minnesota. We know, 648 00:30:06,880 --> 00:30:09,960 Speaker 1: and a lot of guys, but it becomes like one 649 00:30:10,000 --> 00:30:12,760 Speaker 1: of those things, how much do you want to ring? 650 00:30:13,240 --> 00:30:15,080 Speaker 1: How much do you want to play with Kaid Cunningham? 651 00:30:15,320 --> 00:30:18,600 Speaker 1: How much do you like JB. Bickerstaff? That roster showed 652 00:30:18,680 --> 00:30:21,160 Speaker 1: so well against the Knicks. That was a much closer 653 00:30:21,240 --> 00:30:23,960 Speaker 1: series than I think anyone anticipated. 654 00:30:24,320 --> 00:30:26,520 Speaker 2: And so if I want. 655 00:30:26,360 --> 00:30:29,040 Speaker 1: To win, I'm a mid I'm sort of a mid 656 00:30:29,160 --> 00:30:32,280 Speaker 1: career free agent. You get a really young team that's 657 00:30:32,320 --> 00:30:34,480 Speaker 1: got a great culture. Why wouldn't you go take a 658 00:30:34,520 --> 00:30:35,720 Speaker 1: shot four years try. 659 00:30:35,560 --> 00:30:40,040 Speaker 2: To win your title? Matt Moore, I like it. 660 00:30:40,160 --> 00:30:44,840 Speaker 1: Tasty, tasty stuff. Thank you for giving us the thunder 661 00:30:44,880 --> 00:30:49,120 Speaker 1: and six. I hope you continue to give us more 662 00:30:49,160 --> 00:30:55,160 Speaker 1: and more prescientt nuggets in subsequent episode of The Favorites 663 00:30:55,600 --> 00:31:01,320 Speaker 1: as well as buckets, don't forget Pacers, Thunder Game six 664 00:31:01,600 --> 00:31:04,760 Speaker 1: from Indie number open six now down to five, moving 665 00:31:04,800 --> 00:31:06,960 Speaker 1: back to five and a half. Simon and I will 666 00:31:07,040 --> 00:31:09,000 Speaker 1: return with our next episode of The Favorites Thursday on 667 00:31:09,040 --> 00:31:12,200 Speaker 1: the Action Network YouTube page. Download us from Spotify, Apple Pods, 668 00:31:12,200 --> 00:31:15,720 Speaker 1: wherever you get your podcasts, Rate review, subscribe, leave us 669 00:31:15,920 --> 00:31:17,080 Speaker 1: five stars, say whatever you want. 670 00:31:17,080 --> 00:31:19,520 Speaker 2: Feedback is a gift until next time. Love you. 671 00:31:27,240 --> 00:31:31,760 Speaker 1: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly if you or 672 00:31:31,760 --> 00:31:34,560 Speaker 1: someone you care about has a gambling problem. Help Us 673 00:31:34,600 --> 00:31:37,720 Speaker 1: available twenty four to seven at one eight hundred Gambler