WEBVTT - Trump Posts Bond, June Rate-Cut Odds Fall

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio News. Good morning, I'm Nathan

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<v Speaker 1>Hager and I'm Karen Moscow. Here are the stories we're

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<v Speaker 1>following today.

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<v Speaker 2>Karen, we begin with the latest developments in Donald Trump's

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<v Speaker 2>legal battles. Former president has followed through on posting a

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<v Speaker 2>one hundred and seventy five million dollar bond in his

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<v Speaker 2>New York civil fraud case. That means he will avoid

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<v Speaker 2>having his assets seized while he appeals the four hundred

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<v Speaker 2>and fifty four million dollar judgment against him. That bond

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<v Speaker 2>was arranged by California based Night Specialty Insurance, a company

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<v Speaker 2>best known for subprime auto loans, which is run by

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<v Speaker 2>billionaire Trump supporter Don Hankey. Meanwhile, the former president is

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<v Speaker 2>coming under new restrictions ahead of his hush money trial

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<v Speaker 2>in New York. The judge in that case has expanded

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<v Speaker 2>a gag order after Trump attacked both him and his

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<v Speaker 2>daughter on social media. Lourie Levinson is a former federal

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<v Speaker 2>prosecutor now a professor at Loyola Law School.

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<v Speaker 3>Whether he wants who or not, Donald Trump has to

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<v Speaker 3>tone it down because by attacking the judge's daughter, by

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<v Speaker 3>attacking members of the district attorney's office, Trump has made

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<v Speaker 3>it increasingly difficult for the judge to hold a fair trial.

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<v Speaker 2>Loyal law professor Lourie Levinson says the expanded gag order

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<v Speaker 2>still allows Trump to make comments about Manhattan District Attorney

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<v Speaker 2>Alvin Bragg. The hush money trial begins April fifteenth.

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<v Speaker 1>Well, Nathan, we have another note on Donald Trump. His

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<v Speaker 1>net worth on paper tumbled a billion dollars as shares

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<v Speaker 1>of as social media business plunge. Do we get details

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<v Speaker 1>from Bloomberg's Charlie Pellett.

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<v Speaker 4>That was after the company disclosed that had lost more

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<v Speaker 4>than fifty eight million dollars in twenty twenty three as

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<v Speaker 4>revenue for the former president's Truth social platform trickled in.

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<v Speaker 4>Trump Media and Technology Group stockfell twenty one percent to

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<v Speaker 4>forty eight sixty six, a share that's below the forty

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<v Speaker 4>nine to ninety five level where the blank check vehicle

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<v Speaker 4>it merged with was trading a week again go According

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<v Speaker 4>to filings with the SEC, Trump owns fifty seven percent

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<v Speaker 4>of the company, with his stake now worth three point

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<v Speaker 4>seven six billion dollars on paper in New York. Charlie

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<v Speaker 4>Pellett Bloomberg.

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<v Speaker 1>Radio, All right, Charlie, thanks in checking shares of Trumpet

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<v Speaker 1>Media and Technology Group this morning, they're down another four

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<v Speaker 1>point three percent.

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<v Speaker 2>And now to the latest developments in the Middle East.

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<v Speaker 2>Care in a shadow war between Israel and Iran has

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<v Speaker 2>ebbed and flowed in recent years, but a reported airstrike

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<v Speaker 2>in Syria may be ratcheting up tensions. Details from Bloomberg

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<v Speaker 2>Zamy Morris in Washington.

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<v Speaker 5>Iranian and Syrian state media claim inn Israeli airstrike on

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<v Speaker 5>Iran's embassy compound in Syria killed a number of people,

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<v Speaker 5>including a top military commander mohammedresa Zahedi, a high ranking

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<v Speaker 5>Iranian general linked to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, plus

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<v Speaker 5>another general and at least five officers. Iran's bign minister

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<v Speaker 5>says Israel should be held accountable for the repercussions of

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<v Speaker 5>the attack. The country's envoy to Syria vowed a quote

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<v Speaker 5>decile response. Israeli officials did not confirm the strike. In Washington,

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<v Speaker 5>Amy Morris Bloomberg Radio.

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<v Speaker 1>All right, Amy, thank you. Meanwhile, the White House is

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<v Speaker 1>calling for an investigation into an Israeli airstrike in Gaza

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<v Speaker 1>that caught a well known aid organization in the crossfire.

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<v Speaker 1>The Washington based World Central Kitchen says seven of its

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<v Speaker 1>staff were killed in the attack, including an American with

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<v Speaker 1>dual Canadian citizenship. The group, founded by celebrity chef Jose Andres,

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<v Speaker 1>delivered the first shipment of aid by SA into northern

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<v Speaker 1>Gaza last month. It's helped oversee construction of a peer

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<v Speaker 1>to bring more meals into the region. The Israeli military

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<v Speaker 1>says it's conducting a review of the incident at the

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<v Speaker 1>highest levels.

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<v Speaker 2>Turned out to the Economy Karen, the odds of a

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<v Speaker 2>rate cut in June are deteriorating, and we get the

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<v Speaker 2>details from Bloomberg's John Tucker.

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<v Speaker 6>John and Nathan Trader's recalibrating their bets on the federal

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<v Speaker 6>reserves easing briefly setting the ons of a first move

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<v Speaker 6>in June below fifty percent. This comes as ism manufacturing

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<v Speaker 6>was stronger than expected towards the slocks. Chief economist at

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<v Speaker 6>apollel Management.

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<v Speaker 2>We have suddenly expansion for the first time since twenty

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<v Speaker 2>twenty two. We also seen suddenly that price is paid

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<v Speaker 2>in im also beginning to accelerate.

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<v Speaker 6>The number of FED rate cuts priced in the swamps

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<v Speaker 6>contracts for this year dropped a fewer than sixty five

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<v Speaker 6>basis points. That's less than FED policy makers themselves of forecast.

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<v Speaker 6>Some market watchers say the pendulum of centiment in US

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<v Speaker 6>rates may be shifting toward the hawkish direction. John Tucker,

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<v Speaker 6>Bloomberg Radio.

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<v Speaker 1>All right, John, thanks we the strong factory data helps

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<v Speaker 1>send both stocks and bonds lower on the first day

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<v Speaker 1>of the second quarter. OURBC Capital Markets head of US

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<v Speaker 1>equity strategy, Lori Calvacina, expects to see money moving to

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<v Speaker 1>other parts of the markets besides the so called Magnificent

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<v Speaker 1>seven stalks.

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<v Speaker 7>I think we're due for one big catch up trade

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<v Speaker 7>in the market from you know, kind of everything outside

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<v Speaker 7>of the MAG seven, whether it's small cap, whether it's

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<v Speaker 7>you know, kind of the non tech sectors. If you

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<v Speaker 7>look at the pe in the market x the MAG seven,

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<v Speaker 7>it's trading around sixteen times. The MAG seven's been trading

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<v Speaker 7>between twenty seven and twenty eight times on a forward

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<v Speaker 7>pe and kind of a round past peak. So I

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<v Speaker 7>think there's room for the rest of the market to

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<v Speaker 7>kind of catch up. I'm not saying we have to

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<v Speaker 7>get quite that over valued, but there's room for the

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<v Speaker 7>rest of the market to make a move.

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<v Speaker 1>Capital Markets Lori Calvsina boosted her year end s and

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<v Speaker 1>P five hundred price target to fifty three hundred.

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<v Speaker 2>And in Europe, Karen, UBS is updating its investors on

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<v Speaker 2>when it'll begin at stock buyback program. Let's go to

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<v Speaker 2>London and get the details from Bloomberg's Ewan Pots.

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<v Speaker 8>Ewan, Nathan and Karen. The bank buy back story rolls on.

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<v Speaker 8>UBS says it will purchase up to two billion dollars

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<v Speaker 8>if its shares over the next two years, including one

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<v Speaker 8>billion dollars this year. The announcement gives shareholders in Switzerland's

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<v Speaker 8>biggest bank greater visibility on returns as it completes the

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<v Speaker 8>integration of Credits Suisse, UBS saying it's ambition is for

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<v Speaker 8>share buybacks to exceed pre acquisition levels by twenty twenty six.

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<v Speaker 8>In London, I'm your Pots Boomberg.

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<v Speaker 1>Radio, all right you and thanks what We're keeping your

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<v Speaker 1>eye on Tesla shares. Later today, the company is expected

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<v Speaker 1>to report global first order delivery and production numbers and

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<v Speaker 1>a lets say demand for electric vehicles and elevated interest

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<v Speaker 1>rates are taking a toll on sales. We gin more

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<v Speaker 1>from Bloomberg Technology host ed Ludlow.

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<v Speaker 9>So Tesla's course lyad deliveries have Wall Street worried brace

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<v Speaker 9>because the first quarter numbers are coming the expectation four

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<v Speaker 9>hundred and fifty seven thousand odd sequential decline. But the

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<v Speaker 9>key thing does Tesla beat its performance from the same

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<v Speaker 9>period a year ago, higher rates, government policy, a tepid

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<v Speaker 9>consumer and elon with a new policy that might have

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<v Speaker 9>upset some people in the sprint finish to the first quarter,

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<v Speaker 9>Ed Ludlow Bloomberg Radio.

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<v Speaker 2>All right ed thanks to one other corporate note. This morning,

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<v Speaker 2>with more than half of the vote's cast, the Wall

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<v Speaker 2>Street Journal is reporting Disney has pulled ahead in its

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<v Speaker 2>proxy battle against Nelson Peltz's Try and Partners. The paper

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<v Speaker 2>says Black Rock and t row Price are among the

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<v Speaker 2>major investors backing Disney. The journal says investors are still

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<v Speaker 2>casting votes and can change them through the annual meeting tomorrow.

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<v Speaker 1>Orry Nathan, thanks and welcome back. It's time now for

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<v Speaker 1>a look at some of the other stories making news

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<v Speaker 1>in New York and around the world, and for that

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<v Speaker 1>we're joined now by Bloombergy's Michael Barr.

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<v Speaker 10>Michael, good morning, Good morning, Karen, The owner of the

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<v Speaker 10>ship that rammed into a bridge in Baltimore last week,

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<v Speaker 10>killing six workers. Is seeking to limit its liability to

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<v Speaker 10>about forty three point seven million dollars. Legal experts say

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<v Speaker 10>the company Grace Ocean could face hundreds of millions of

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<v Speaker 10>dollars in damage claims. Yesterday, it filed a petition jointly

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<v Speaker 10>with Synergy Marine, which was operating the Singapore flagged cargo

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<v Speaker 10>ship Dolly. They claimed the collapse that the Francis Scott

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<v Speaker 10>Key Bridge was not due to any fault, neglect, or

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<v Speaker 10>want of care of the companies, and that they shouldn't

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<v Speaker 10>be held liable for any loss or damage from the disaster.

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<v Speaker 10>Memhile Maryland officials, including Governor Wes Moore, urge patients as

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<v Speaker 10>the cleanup gets underway, saying the safety of the rescuers

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<v Speaker 10>and salvage crew will be top priority during the precarious

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<v Speaker 10>operation and.

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<v Speaker 1>My directive to complete this mission with no injuries and

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<v Speaker 1>no casualties.

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<v Speaker 10>We've already lost six Marylanders to this crisis.

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<v Speaker 8>I refuse to lose any more.

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<v Speaker 10>Governor Morris says a temporary channel on the northeast side

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<v Speaker 10>of the collapse opened yesterday and will help to get

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<v Speaker 10>more vessels around the site. Of the collapse. In two rulings,

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<v Speaker 10>Florida Supreme Court decided that the state's fifteen week abortion

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<v Speaker 10>ban is constitutional, which paves the way for a six

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<v Speaker 10>week band to take effect soon. The state Supreme Court

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<v Speaker 10>also ruled voters in Florida will be heading to the

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<v Speaker 10>polls later this year to decide what is the future

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<v Speaker 10>of abortion in the state. Critics say that the varting

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<v Speaker 10>in the November measure is too vague.

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<v Speaker 2>It doesn't define what viability is. It doesn't define what

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<v Speaker 2>a healthcare worker is.

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<v Speaker 10>However, supporters of the ballot measure, like Ana Hotcomer with

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<v Speaker 10>the Florida Women's Freedom Coalition, disagrees with critics.

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<v Speaker 5>Floridians are smart.

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<v Speaker 1>They understand what we want. They understand what the language says.

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<v Speaker 10>The November ballot would allow Florida voters to decide whether

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<v Speaker 10>they think that abortion should be protected in the state's

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<v Speaker 10>constitution and government interference should be limited. It's already been

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<v Speaker 10>decided between Joe Bush, Joe Biden, and former President Donald Trump,

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<v Speaker 10>but it's primary day in New York, Connecticut, Delaware, Rhode Island,

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<v Speaker 10>and Wisconsin. Mississippi is holding a Republican runoff election to

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<v Speaker 10>see who will challenge sixteen term Democratic incumbent Benny Thompson.

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<v Speaker 10>Mosques in New York City are struggling to house and

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<v Speaker 10>feed migrants as the country's latest immigration surge becomes increasingly

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<v Speaker 10>more African and Muslim. Leaders of a mosqin Harlem say

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<v Speaker 10>their congregation is spending hundreds of dollars a night to

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<v Speaker 10>host iftar, the traditional end of fasting during Ramadan. Global

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<v Speaker 10>News twenty four hours a day and whenever you want

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<v Speaker 10>it with the Bloomberg News. Now, I'm Michael Barr, and

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<v Speaker 10>this is Bloomberg Karen.

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<v Speaker 1>Sorry, Michael Barr, thank you. Time out the Bloombergy Sports

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<v Speaker 1>Update with John Stashaur. John, Good morning, Good morning care.

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<v Speaker 11>The long range shooting and the playmaking ability of Caitly

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<v Speaker 11>and Clark has grabbed the attention to the nation and

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<v Speaker 11>her Iowa career not over yet. Clark scored forty one

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<v Speaker 11>points with nine threes. She had twelve assists. Iowa beat

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<v Speaker 11>LSU ninety four to eighty seven, avenging their loss to

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<v Speaker 11>the Tigers in last year's championship game. Now heading to

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<v Speaker 11>the women's Final four in Cleveland were on Friday, Iowa

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<v Speaker 11>will take on yukon The Huskies have a start of

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<v Speaker 11>their own, Page Beckers and an eighty to seventy three

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<v Speaker 11>win over USC had twenty eight points. This will be

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<v Speaker 11>Yukon's twenty third Final four. They've gone to fifteen to

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<v Speaker 11>the last sixteen. Both Yukon and NC State have their

0:10:38.679 --> 0:10:41.800
<v Speaker 11>men's and women's teams heading to the Final four. The

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<v Speaker 11>Yankees are five and oh. Last time that happened was

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<v Speaker 11>nineteen ninety two, which was actually the last Yankee team

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<v Speaker 11>to finish under five hundred. Yanks won five to two

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<v Speaker 11>at Arizona. Luis Heel in the rotation due to the

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<v Speaker 11>Garrett Cole injury, pitched into the fifth inning, allowed only

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<v Speaker 11>one hit. The Mets are zero and four. At City Field,

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<v Speaker 11>they got great pitching for nine innings and lost to

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<v Speaker 11>Detroit five to nothing. Meanwhile, in Houston to two, De

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<v Speaker 11>Guerrero prow ball tap Loco lets it go by Dubon

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<v Speaker 11>Fields throws the first.

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<v Speaker 3>End time hoo Head hold down Blackco.

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<v Speaker 11>Seiderds the first to chop it too.

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<v Speaker 7>His arms and the rest of his teammates come out

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<v Speaker 7>to mabo.

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<v Speaker 11>I'm abmb just the eighth Big League starver on ol Blanco,

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<v Speaker 11>and he threw the seventeenth no hitter in Astro's history.

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<v Speaker 11>At the Garden, Rangers lost to Pittsburgh five to two,

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<v Speaker 11>and in a five game win streak, just the Rangers

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<v Speaker 11>second lost the past month. Islanders in Philadelphia gave up

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<v Speaker 11>the time goal with ten seconds left, but one four

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<v Speaker 11>to three and a brock Nelson goaling over time his

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<v Speaker 11>thirtieth NETS lost in Indiana one twenty three to one.

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<v Speaker 11>Eleven Pacers scored forty three in the first quarter. The

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<v Speaker 11>Celtics fifty ninth win one eighteen one to fourteen Nets. Charlotte,

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<v Speaker 11>johnh DASHEDWIAR Bloomberg Sports Karen.

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<v Speaker 1>Nathan all right, John, thank you, and futures now little

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<v Speaker 1>change SNP at NASDAG Futures anyway down. Futures down three

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<v Speaker 1>tentsive uppercent, the ten year treasury yield four point three

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<v Speaker 1>one per nimex screwed oil up one point six percent

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<v Speaker 1>at eighty five dollars seven cents a barrel.

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<v Speaker 4>Coast to coast on Bloomberg Radio, nationwide on Sirius XM,

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<v Speaker 4>and around the world on Bloomberg dot Com and the

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<v Speaker 4>Bloomberg Business app.

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<v Speaker 2>This is Bloomberg Daybreak, Good morning of Nathan Hager, let's

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<v Speaker 2>get a little bit more on what's happening in this market,

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<v Speaker 2>the slight pullback in futures in this surge that we're

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<v Speaker 2>seeing in commodities this morning, with bond traders pushing back

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<v Speaker 2>their bets on a first rate cut move from the

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<v Speaker 2>Federal Reserve, following a gauge of manufacturing activity in the

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<v Speaker 2>US moving into expansion territory for the first time in

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<v Speaker 2>nearly a year and a half. For more on this,

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<v Speaker 2>we're joined by Bloomberg's Kritty Gupta. So, Critty, we have

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<v Speaker 2>seen so much data over the last several months showing

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<v Speaker 2>continued strength in this economy. Now this surprise ism manufacturing

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<v Speaker 2>data showing expansion for the first time since September twenty

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<v Speaker 2>twenty two, really does seem to be feeding into this

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<v Speaker 2>narrative that the Fed really doesn't need to be in

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<v Speaker 2>a rush to cut rates.

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<v Speaker 12>Yeah, it's an interesting one because for so long that's

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<v Speaker 12>what the exactly the markets are are banking upon, and

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<v Speaker 12>it's been the story of consumer resilience, as you've pointed out.

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<v Speaker 12>But Nathan, you know as well as anybody that not

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<v Speaker 12>all inflation is created equal, And I think what was

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<v Speaker 12>so striking about this ISM data in particular, is that

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<v Speaker 12>off the back of it, you saw anywhere from ten

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<v Speaker 12>to fourteen basis points of moves in the treasury market

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<v Speaker 12>across the curve off of just an ISM report. And

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<v Speaker 12>the reason I kind of put emphasis on that is

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<v Speaker 12>because you traditionally don't see that kind of reaction and

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<v Speaker 12>sustained reaction throughout the trading day off of just one report,

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<v Speaker 12>and especially the ISM of all places, specifically because manufacturing

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<v Speaker 12>makes up only a fraction of the US economy relative

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<v Speaker 12>to the services data, so you see more sustained moves

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<v Speaker 12>off services data rather than manufacturing. So this was interesting,

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<v Speaker 12>but it comes in tandem with, as you say, this

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<v Speaker 12>building narrative CPI, the PCE numbers, the labor numbers as well,

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<v Speaker 12>And I think what's important about the ISM data and

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<v Speaker 12>the way it's actually calculated is that it is more

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<v Speaker 12>sensitive to factory outputs, to new orders, to wage stories,

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<v Speaker 12>especially in parts of America that have more of an

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<v Speaker 12>industrial focus on that as well. All of that are

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<v Speaker 12>things that are in line with that get factored into

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<v Speaker 12>the PPI numbers and the PCE deflator numbers. Essentially the

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<v Speaker 12>pieces of data that the FED pays more attention to

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<v Speaker 12>gend just the headline CPI, and that's kind of the

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<v Speaker 12>building blocks that are taking place at the moment when

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<v Speaker 12>factoring in this data.

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<v Speaker 2>It was interesting, though, wasn't it to see this data

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<v Speaker 2>come out this surprise on the manufacturing side. When we

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<v Speaker 2>did get that PCE data on Friday that we heard

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<v Speaker 2>from FED Chairman Jerome Powell saying that it came in

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<v Speaker 2>basically in line with their expectations even with goods inflation

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<v Speaker 2>in that PCE data is showing a little bit more

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<v Speaker 2>stickiness this time around.

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<v Speaker 12>Yeah, and I think that's the concern here, right, And

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<v Speaker 12>you heard that Withchair Powell in some of his commentary there.

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<v Speaker 12>He said that even though the pc numbers came in,

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<v Speaker 12>you know on par we have to be He issued

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<v Speaker 12>a lot of caution. He said, we have to be

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<v Speaker 12>careful about the rate cut story. As if it's a surprise,

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<v Speaker 12>they wouldn't be careful, but they really risk this kind

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<v Speaker 12>of spiral that if you go with one cut, how

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<v Speaker 12>many more cuts follow. You can't have just one move

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<v Speaker 12>and then not touch anything. It's kind of the start

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<v Speaker 12>of a longer program, or at least that's the expectation

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<v Speaker 12>of economists and markets, and that's that first move that

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<v Speaker 12>they want to get right. The goods piece of it

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<v Speaker 12>is really important because in twenty twenty one, we're kind

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<v Speaker 12>of going through our inflation saga. Over the last couple

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<v Speaker 12>of years, post COVID, post pandemic, the reopening trade, so

0:15:41.280 --> 0:15:44.280
<v Speaker 12>much of the supply chain hiccups, et cetera. Were cost driven.

0:15:44.320 --> 0:15:46.920
<v Speaker 12>It was commodity prices, oil prices hitting one hundred dollars

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<v Speaker 12>a barrel and more. It was the grain story coming

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<v Speaker 12>out of Ukraine and the war there. It was gold

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<v Speaker 12>prices and raw materials becoming more expensive with this move

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<v Speaker 12>in evs and chips. Basically the tip big take, as

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<v Speaker 12>this was commodity driven inflation that ended up in shortages

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<v Speaker 12>around the world and therefore supply chain snags. The inflation

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<v Speaker 12>story right now is service is driven. It's wages driven.

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<v Speaker 12>Everybody wants a little bit more money in their paycheck

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<v Speaker 12>in line with the inflationary pressures that they've been dealing

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<v Speaker 12>with with prices that have been and costs that have

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<v Speaker 12>been passed on to the consumer by major corporations around

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<v Speaker 12>the world. The concern around a reacceleration is more goods

0:16:27.120 --> 0:16:30.040
<v Speaker 12>driven and commodity driven this time around, and that's arguably,

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<v Speaker 12>to your point, more sticky and they'refore more dangerous.

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<v Speaker 2>All right, Bloomberg's Critti Gupta with a look at some

0:16:34.760 --> 0:16:35.960
<v Speaker 2>of the latest economic data.

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<v Speaker 12>Credit.

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<v Speaker 7>Thank you.

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<v Speaker 2>This is Bloomberg day Break Today, your morning brief on

0:16:41.720 --> 0:16:45.200
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<v Speaker 2>Hager and I'm Karen Moscow.

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