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Speaker 1: The Action Network Podcast. I'm just about that action also.

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Speaker 1: All right, here we go all throwing in Joe. We're

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Speaker 1: saying it to cash stars.

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Speaker 2: See most gamblers when they go to gamble, they go

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Speaker 2: to win.

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Speaker 1: Oh god, that's incredible. Big bank, small banks. I like

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Speaker 1: to make money. All right, this is the ultimate kaba

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Speaker 1: and we are underway. What's up? Everybody? Happy Thanksgiving? Welcome

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Speaker 1: to the Action Network Podcast. I'm your host, Chris Raybond,

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Speaker 1: and this is your NFL Week twelve betting preview. You

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Speaker 1: already know. We're gonna talk about our favorite sides, totals, teasers,

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Speaker 1: survivor picks on the underdog, money lines, and of course

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Speaker 1: crack open our weekly Sunday six pack of against the

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Speaker 1: spread bets the help of my co host, the Prime

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Speaker 1: Minister of Degenerate Nation also my father for the week

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Speaker 1: because you definitely beat me head to head with that

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Speaker 1: Cleveland pick. So congratulations, great week for you, seven and one.

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Speaker 1: I believe it was. How are you feeling?

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Speaker 3: It was great week for the podcast. I think we

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Speaker 3: hit our money on dogs teasers. Uh, it's put the

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Speaker 3: totals for one on one on the six pack, even

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Speaker 3: with the head to head and yeah, It was a

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Speaker 3: great Sunday swept aboard. Always nice to get one of those.

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Speaker 3: And it was a sweaty one too, because around four

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Speaker 3: the witching hour I had. I had the Texans. I

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Speaker 3: just needed them to wind to close out a parlay

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Speaker 3: that went that was right down to the wire. They

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Speaker 3: had to get a fourth down stop. I kept turning

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Speaker 3: it over. I had the Browns. I thought the Steelers

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Speaker 3: were gonna voodoo again. They have to drive the field.

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Speaker 3: I had the I had, the Bears were a sweat somehow,

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Speaker 3: Bears up twelve three to go.

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Speaker 1: I gotta get Darnall out of the back.

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Speaker 3: Yeah.

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Speaker 1: When I saw that, I was like, oh no, not another,

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Speaker 1: not another, not another six time. I almost lost my heart.

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Speaker 1: I was like thinking about it.

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Speaker 3: I was like, maybe Hutchinson coming around the edge here,

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Speaker 3: this could And then it happened the first I was like,

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Speaker 3: oh my god, my stomach dropped. And luckily I got

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Speaker 3: to send my first Christmas card of my life to Darnell.

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Speaker 1: Right.

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Speaker 3: But yeah, it was a great week, and uh, but

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Speaker 3: who cares. We're on the next week. Hopefully we can

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Speaker 3: keep it rolling on the pod. And yeah, happy Thanksgiving.

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Speaker 3: Everyone just got done. The College Podcast a couple of

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Speaker 3: hours ago, so if you want to check out that

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Speaker 3: that'll be out. We wanted to get everything out for

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Speaker 3: you guys by Wednesday, so I know a lot of

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Speaker 3: people are traveling, have family obligations. So yeah, I'm ready

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Speaker 3: to roll and hopefully find some more winners.

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Speaker 1: You sound did you sleep or something like? You sound

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Speaker 1: pretty enthusiastic. We were just talking about Tim Boyle at

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Speaker 1: College Stats. It got me fired up. I guess. Yeah.

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Speaker 1: We want to Sinceri tank all of you guys for

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Speaker 1: listen joining us this season and every season. I know

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Speaker 1: a lot of listeners. This is not your first season,

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Speaker 1: and if it is, welcome, thank you. We appreciate you.

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Speaker 1: Happy Thanksgiving gamblers.

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Speaker 4: We're thankful for you.

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Speaker 1: We're gonna kick things off by tackling all three Thanksgiving

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Speaker 1: Day games in our normal Thursday night segment. If there's

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Speaker 1: something in the six pack, you know, I'll let you

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Speaker 1: know kind of go to the next game and yeah,

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Speaker 1: and then we'll get into our six pack, which will

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Speaker 1: include all It can include every game, so it's not

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Speaker 1: just Sunday, you know, it can include Friday, it can

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Speaker 1: include Thursday. So a lot to get to. Let's jump

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Speaker 1: right into it with the Thursday Thanksgiving Day Sleep preview.

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Speaker 2: We're on the bus getting ready to broadcast the traditional

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Speaker 2: Thanksgiving Day game, and John, as you think about all

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Speaker 2: the people around the country sitting down to enjoy Thanksgiving

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Speaker 2: with their friends and their families, we indeed have a

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Speaker 2: lot of thankful for.

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Speaker 4: The first Thanksgiving Day game ever played was here in Detroit,

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Speaker 4: and to me, there's nothing better. There's just certain things

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Speaker 4: that go together, you know, the turkey, the family, the tradition, football,

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Speaker 4: and we have it all today.

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Speaker 1: All right, First off, you got the Packers going to

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Speaker 1: Detroit to take on a Lions, Lions favored by seven

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Speaker 1: and a half at bet MGM total forty seven. Uh.

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Speaker 1: I mean you've got a pretty good read on these

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Speaker 1: two teams. So I'll let you give your thoughts first.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, this one's tough to hit. We're recording this on

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Speaker 3: a Tuesday. The Packers injured report is ridiculous. Like who's

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Speaker 3: playing for that?

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Speaker 1: Yeah?

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Speaker 3: I don't know, Like, is JayR Alexander gonna play? He'd

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Speaker 3: be really important game.

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Speaker 1: He looks like he is. So the guys who look

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Speaker 1: like they're definitely well, Aaron Jones is doubtful, so he's out.

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Speaker 1: Musgrave is in the hospital, so hopefully, you know, best

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Speaker 1: wishes to him. I think he got he came down.

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Speaker 1: He had an injury that he picked up in that game.

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Speaker 3: He's out of the hospital now, but he's he's he

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Speaker 3: has he spent the Yeah, he spent a lot a

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Speaker 3: couple of days after the game in the hospital.

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Speaker 1: And then the backup, the third string running back of

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Speaker 1: Manuel Wilson dislocated his shoulder, so he's probably also out.

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Speaker 1: So it was probably gonna be the AJ Dillon Show.

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Speaker 1: They signed Patrick Taylor to the active roster, and then

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Speaker 1: Dantavian Wicks, who I thought was playing really well. He's

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Speaker 1: in the protocol. It sounds like so he's he's pretty iffy. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: I mean Jenkins, I'm not sure about Jenkins.

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Speaker 3: He might be said there's yeah, they are Jones losses

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Speaker 3: big here.

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Speaker 1: Is it though? I mean, what has he really done

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Speaker 1: this year? He had that one big game against Chicago

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Speaker 1: and really nothing else. I mean, they're not actually losing something.

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Speaker 1: He can't really lose something that you don't have, you

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Speaker 1: know what I mean?

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Speaker 3: Like, yeah, I just think that then they end up

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Speaker 3: giving it to Dylan too much and it just doesn't work.

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Speaker 3: It's not gonna work. And think, here's what I think.

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Speaker 3: The Packers have to come out here and have to throw.

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Speaker 3: That's what they have to do. You're not really gonna

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Speaker 3: run it much on Detroit, so you got to come

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Speaker 3: out here. You have to trust Jordan Love and you

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Speaker 3: have to hope that he doesn't make bad mistakes. You know,

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Speaker 3: remember earlier in the year, the Lions in what game

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Speaker 3: four the lines were two and a half point favorites

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Speaker 3: at green Bay. They won thirty four to twenty Love

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Speaker 3: through a couple of picks. Golf wasn't overwhelming, but the

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Speaker 3: Lions really just I mean, whenever they needed to get

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Speaker 3: on the ground, they got, which it is probably gonna have.

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Speaker 3: It's it's probably gonna be the same here. It's just

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Speaker 3: they're gonna get a push up front and they're gonna

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Speaker 3: be able to control this game from that aspect, set

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Speaker 3: up some easy passes. So it's really tough for me

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Speaker 3: to make a case for green Bay. I show a

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Speaker 3: little bit of value on the Packers. I want to

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Speaker 3: just see who's playing first. Let me see what is

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Speaker 3: the total sitting at forty seven favorites have been have

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Speaker 3: dominated for what it's worth on Thanksgiving, which is worth noting.

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Speaker 3: I know unders in these Island games have been great,

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Speaker 3: but the under the overs taking money, which I agree

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Speaker 3: with under forty eight and anything under forty eight, I

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Speaker 3: would potentially look at the over because I don't think

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Speaker 3: green Bay is gonna have much success running it. Your

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Speaker 3: running back room is hurt. You're gonna come out here

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Speaker 3: and you try to throw it, and most teams that

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Speaker 3: want to do that you can have success against Detroit.

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Speaker 3: That secondary is just not good.

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Speaker 1: And I think that the truth, there's no real there's

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Speaker 1: no there's no real.

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Speaker 3: Resistance that the green Bay defense can provide to what

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Speaker 3: Detroit wants to do on the ground, through the air,

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Speaker 3: the injuries making a tough handicap, but over a touchdown,

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Speaker 3: I lean green Bay and I would actually look at

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Speaker 3: the over here.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, you know, I thought about green Bay, but I

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Speaker 1: mean my gut is actually telling me this is a

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Speaker 1: spot where Detroit bounces back and green Bay's luck comes

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Speaker 1: to an end. You know, green Bay just doesn't seem

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Speaker 1: like it can maintain consistency, and it makes sense. You know,

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Speaker 1: your young, young offense and now you I mean you

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Speaker 1: got musk Grave out, you got wis I mean, you

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Speaker 1: still got your top three receivers, you still but that's like,

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Speaker 1: you know, you're just you're just depleted going against this

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Speaker 1: Lion team that finally has all its offensive pieces together

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Speaker 1: and you know, just wait an egg on offense. It's

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Speaker 1: also a short week.

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Speaker 3: Most of the game hurts the younger team, right, like

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Speaker 3: less operation time down on the road.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, and I don't. I mean, I've already had

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Speaker 1: some issues with Matt LeFlore I think, you know, as

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Speaker 1: are many of these coaches this year, becoming a little

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Speaker 1: exposed on some of his game planning, play falling, just

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Speaker 1: not really feeling it. And Campbell though you know, he's

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Speaker 1: he's looks like a force to be reckoned with. Uh So, yeah,

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Speaker 1: I think Detroit has a better coach to superior team

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Speaker 1: on a short week that usually favors the favorite, which

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Speaker 1: is part of the reason why because we also see

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Speaker 1: favorites just generally. The one other spot is just Thursday

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Speaker 1: night football in general, not on Thanksgiving, And we know

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Speaker 1: we've talked about this. It's just you have the superior

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Speaker 1: team short week, you know, less about game planning and

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Speaker 1: skiving and just more about going out there and playing

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Speaker 1: and Detroit's healthier, Detroit's better. So you know, don't don't

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Speaker 1: really like laying that that number of points, but you

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Speaker 1: do have trends to back it up if you so

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Speaker 1: choose to go in that direction. But it's this is

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Speaker 1: gonna be I think a no bet for me. It's

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Speaker 1: the first game of the day, right, So maybe I'll

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Speaker 1: have a prop or something.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I'll look to see what props are out of

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Speaker 3: you or Kerner or Nick Giffin.

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Speaker 1: I'll probably throw in.

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Speaker 3: A I always throw in like a turkey Turkey Thanksgiving parlay.

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Speaker 3: It's the one time I do so I'll just be

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Speaker 3: sitting on my couch all day. Just if I don't

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Speaker 3: like all three games separately, which I don't hear, I'll

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Speaker 3: just throw in something just for fun, some couch change.

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Speaker 3: So my my, the first leg that I'll have, it's

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Speaker 3: I'm gonna bet.

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Speaker 1: The over here. Okay, okay, So it's not a bad

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Speaker 1: I love.

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Speaker 3: Or I'm gonna be putting out a significant amount of

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Speaker 3: money on but I lean that way that lines put

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Speaker 3: your diapers on. They're gonna go for go for it

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Speaker 3: on fourth downs, which increases the variance a bit, but

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Speaker 3: they should have success and any fourth and shorts against

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Speaker 3: this defense they should get I think Green Bay is

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Speaker 3: gonna come out, they're gonna have to throw.

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Speaker 1: They're gonna be behind, and.

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Speaker 3: They can have some success throwing downfield here against this

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Speaker 3: line's secondary. But by the way, I'm like, a couple

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Speaker 3: of years ago, it's like forty seven. Yeah, we'll go

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Speaker 3: over that easy. Now you're looking at forty seven, It's

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Speaker 3: like I'm looking up at Mount Everest.

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Speaker 1: How are we gonna get the forty eight points?

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Speaker 3: That's what I feel in today's NFL this week, there's

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Speaker 3: totals of thirty four, thirty five, thirty three and a half,

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Speaker 3: I mean, and thirty six. It's crazy out there.

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Speaker 1: In my model, I actually have all four of those

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Speaker 1: little total games slightly over. Not that I'm betting it,

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Speaker 1: but like I think it's kind of like a little

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Speaker 1: bit of an overcorrection, you know, the market just really

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Speaker 1: coming down here. But yeah, I mean, this is You've

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Speaker 1: got indoor golf, indoor Lions full strength, Davin Jamison Williams

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Speaker 1: is catching touchdowns now, have no injuries. Right now, let's

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Speaker 1: go to the next game again.

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Speaker 2: I have a Thanksgiving We got it to ducking right.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, this thing. Here is a D bone duck stuffed

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Speaker 4: in a D bone chicken stuffed in a D bone turkey.

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Speaker 4: We're stuffing now you're.

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Speaker 1: Talking Washington at Dallas. This is another one where if

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Speaker 1: this feels like a little bit of an overreaction to Washington,

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Speaker 1: who just plays the Giants differently from every other team.

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Speaker 1: And we've seen Washington be feisty against Philly and I

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Speaker 1: think Seattle Seattle just a few weeks ago. They're generally

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Speaker 1: very good on a road too. But at the same time,

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Speaker 1: this is also a spot number one obviously favorites on

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Speaker 1: on Thursday and favorites on things Kiven, but DAK against

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Speaker 1: inferior teams is excellent in these spots versus sub five

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Speaker 1: hundred teams twenty nine and thirteen. Against the spread sixty

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Speaker 1: nine percent, DAK is a favorite by six points or

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Speaker 1: more twenty nine eleven and one seventy three percent. So

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Speaker 1: that's that's that's not the norm. Usually you don't see

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Speaker 1: a favorite trends sustaining for that long because the majority

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Speaker 1: of the money is usually on the actions, usually on favorite,

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Speaker 1: so books just usually overcorrect if anything, for those type

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Speaker 1: of things. But Dallas keeps on covering here. So I mean,

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Speaker 1: what do you what do you think because eleven eleven,

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Speaker 1: I may get closer to ten nine and a half.

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Speaker 1: Ten eleven seems like a bit much, But what do

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Speaker 1: you think?

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Speaker 3: Yeah, a little inflated here, But I book last week,

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Speaker 3: I thought that the Panthers line was a little inflated

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Speaker 3: as well. But I didn't want I don't want to

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Speaker 3: step in front of the Dallas team right now. I

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Speaker 3: think that they're playing so well on both sides of

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Speaker 3: the ball. They spoke about this at length. They made

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Speaker 3: the offensive changes that I was looking for, Dak using

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Speaker 3: his legs, throwing it more in early downs. Offensive line

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Speaker 3: is fully healthy, like Dak's gonna be clean here. I

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Speaker 3: just don't know how Washington is going to get many stops.

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Speaker 3: And on the other side of the ball, the Dallas

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Speaker 3: defense has figured it out.

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Speaker 1: In the post Dig's.

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Speaker 3: Life, it's so the one like, look, but you're right

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Speaker 3: the Commanders, I mean, maybe they just can't play teams

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Speaker 3: from New York. They're always I don't know. They also

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Speaker 3: got blown up by the Bills, but they seem to

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Speaker 3: play up and down to their competition. I mean every week.

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Speaker 3: It's crazy. I can't figure out Sam how like he

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Speaker 3: can make all the throws. His timing was all throwing

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Speaker 3: in the season, he was taking too many sacks. He

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Speaker 3: kind of fixed that for a couple of weeks, and

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Speaker 3: you know, he was getting rid of the ball quicker,

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Speaker 3: he wasn't taking as many sacks as seen his pocket

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Speaker 3: for prisons get better. And then last week he throws, Yeah,

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Speaker 3: what three pins get sacked four times? So I don't

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Speaker 3: I don't know. And then like what's going on with

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Speaker 3: McLaurin and those wide receivers. So the Commanders are a

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Speaker 3: bizarre team. They are very difficult, right, So I would

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Speaker 3: agree that this is a bit overinflated, like you're buying,

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Speaker 3: you know, from a by low Sell high perspective, the

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Speaker 3: play here would be to take you know, the double

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Speaker 3: digits over ten with Washington. But I just can't trust them.

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Speaker 3: And I told myself a couple of weeks ago, Dallas

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Speaker 3: the team that I want to ride and want to

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Speaker 3: avoid fading. So I'm gonna stay true to that, and

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Speaker 3: I'll probably stay away from this one. From my Thanksgiving.

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Speaker 1: Dave Parlay Dallas money line.

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Speaker 3: Yea, I'll probably throw Dallas money line in there with

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Speaker 3: the we'll connect Green Bay over with Dallas money line.

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Speaker 1: I don't know where Washington's mental is that either, because

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Speaker 1: you kind of know that this like Rivera's blame yuh,

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Speaker 1: you're you know, is how the guy or is he not?

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Speaker 1: You already had a firesale? He just had an embarrassing loss.

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Speaker 1: But you know at this point, like I think, do

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Speaker 1: you even are you trying to salvage anything? Or is

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Speaker 1: it like was that it was last week? Kind of

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Speaker 1: the checkout point? Like who knows.

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Speaker 4: I'll tell you about this stuff is looking good and

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Speaker 4: smelling good and tasting good. We gotta dig in and

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Speaker 4: start eating now.

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Speaker 1: It is good.

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Speaker 2: But you got a hurry because it's hitting close to

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Speaker 2: game time and we just like to say happy Thanksgiving

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Speaker 2: to you guys back in the studio.

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Speaker 1: The final game is the forty Niners at Seattle to

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Speaker 1: take on the Seahawks. Niners favored by seven. And I'll

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Speaker 1: have more on this one in six packs. So let's

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Speaker 1: get right into this week's Sunday six pack. Thirsty for action,

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Speaker 1: Let's crack up.

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Speaker 3: The Sunday six pack.

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Speaker 1: Let's jump into the six pack. Forty one thirty seven

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Speaker 1: a month.

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Speaker 3: I lost no bets and didn't pick up any ground

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Speaker 3: and one my total. You didn't and beat you had

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Speaker 3: to head all because I pushed the Texans.

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Speaker 1: You're at first. There you going all right?

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Speaker 3: For my first pick of the week, twelve Sunday six pack,

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Speaker 3: I'm going with the Buffalo Bills plus three and a

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Speaker 3: half at the Philadelphia Eagles. This is a rare bet.

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Speaker 3: I placed this bet on Sunday before the Monday night game.

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Speaker 3: All I wanted was the hook here. I have the

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Speaker 3: Bills power rated. After that Jets game, Bills powered ahead

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Speaker 3: of the Eagles.

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Speaker 1: People were like, oh my god, you can't have the

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Speaker 1: Bills better than Eagles. The Bills of six wins, the

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Speaker 1: Eagles are nine to one and they went to the

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Speaker 1: Super Bowl. I mean this Eagles team.

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Speaker 3: Look, if you want to go by our luck rankings,

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Speaker 3: by the way, Eagles are not I don't know what's

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Speaker 3: in the water or water in Pennsylvania where I'm from,

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Speaker 3: but the Steelers and Eagles are number two by far Steers.

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Speaker 3: The Eagles have nine wins, theyre more like a six

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Speaker 3: and a half seven seven and a half win team.

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Speaker 3: Bills five wins are more like a seven. So these

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Speaker 3: two teams should have the same amount of wins with

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Speaker 3: there was a little better luck. You wanna go by DVOA,

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Speaker 3: Buffalo fifth, Philly tenth. Uh you know, Buffalo eighth and

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Speaker 3: schedule adjusted to thager and win percentage, Philly ninth. You

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Speaker 3: go by EPA defense, EPA, EPA per play on defense.

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Speaker 3: The Bills are better than the Eagles offense. The Bills

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Speaker 3: are better than the Eagles go by just net points

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Speaker 3: on the season, and they've played a lot of common opponents.

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Speaker 3: Buffalo margin better than the Eagles. I mean, there's just

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Speaker 3: everywhere I look, I have the Bills. I just can't

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Speaker 3: get to the Eagles being better than the Bills right now. Now,

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Speaker 3: there are some cornerback injuries and Michael Hid there's some

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Speaker 3: injuries in the secondary that for the Bills that are

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Speaker 3: a bit concerning. But you don't really need a slot

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Speaker 3: against the Eagles.

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Speaker 1: They have.

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Speaker 3: They have two guys they can throw to right now,

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Speaker 3: like that's it. They throw a middle screen to Swift,

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Speaker 3: or they try to throw it down the sidelines to

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Speaker 3: their receivers. They have no one else. He got the

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Speaker 3: corpse of Julio Jones. I don't know the tight end

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Speaker 3: and they don't have another receiver, so it doesn't really hurt.

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Speaker 3: I think if you have Benford and Rasseull Douglas, who

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Speaker 3: it clicked for him. It was going to take him

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Speaker 3: a couple of weeks, but he was spectacular last week

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Speaker 3: and he was going again sack Wilson, but just where

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Speaker 3: he was on the field, and he's a big upgrade,

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Speaker 3: mainly because it's not Elam anymore. So I think if

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Speaker 3: you have Benford and Douglas on the outside, I think

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Speaker 3: I'll play, but it's not a given. I think you'll

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Speaker 3: be okay. You're also seeing McDermott's figured out some of

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Speaker 3: the other pieces, and there are edge rushers. I brought

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Speaker 3: this up with the Bills. It wasn't just the injuries

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Speaker 3: that they had, you know, it was the drop off

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Speaker 3: and now you've you know, Dorian Williams has played a

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Speaker 3: little bit better. He's not getting as many step steps

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Speaker 3: in the game. But they had their other edge rushers

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Speaker 3: were banged up too, some of their older guys. Von

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Speaker 3: Miller's finally starting to look a little bit healthier, but

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Speaker 3: some of the other guys like Floyd, they were dealing

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Speaker 3: with injuries and they finally look healthy. They can get

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Speaker 3: pressure without blitzing. That's what you need to do against

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Speaker 3: Jalen Hurts. But this this Eagles offense just doesn't look right.

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Speaker 3: Hurts can't really he's not running it as much as

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Speaker 3: he was last year, which is really hurt in the offense.

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Speaker 3: When he has when he is the threat to run

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Speaker 3: on every play, this offense is impossible to defend. I

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Speaker 3: just think the play calling is taking a step back.

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Speaker 3: You know, he's because he's not healthy and fully confident

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Speaker 3: in the pocket. That just the accuracy isn't theirs deep

383
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Speaker 3: ball has been great, but other than that, there's just

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Speaker 3: this offense just looks off and the Bills offense by

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Speaker 3: every metric, Allen has been great all year, even though

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Speaker 3: people are like, ah, he has so many interceptions. He

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Speaker 3: has the fourth lowest pass defended rate in the NFL.

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Speaker 3: He has the ninth lowest turnover worthy play and this

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Speaker 3: Eagle secondary has been I mean bad. There's just there's

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Speaker 3: he would throw over the middle of the field against them.

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Speaker 3: They don't have a slot. This could be a huge

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Speaker 3: kink game. You saw Joe Brady bring some nuance and

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Speaker 3: some changes to the offense and people will laugh and

394
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Speaker 3: say is the Jets that Jets defense got obliterated and

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Speaker 3: had shut down every single offense with the elite quarterbacks

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Speaker 3: that they faced all season long, and the Bills just

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Speaker 3: ran through them. I mean it was a joke. They

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Speaker 3: were absolutely dominant. So I like this matchup because what

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Speaker 3: the Bills could do here, and they were finally using

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Speaker 3: like cook in the red zone more and in the passing.

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Speaker 3: But you saw Shakir have a big day. They can

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Speaker 3: spread out Philly, put Allen in the gun, and when

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Speaker 3: they spread out, they can go four wide, you know,

404
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Speaker 3: Kincaid Shakir, and then you just have you know, gave

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Speaker 3: Davis run wind sprints and go routes to take away

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Speaker 3: a corner. I don't even think he was targeted last week,

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Speaker 3: but which was interesting. But they could spread Philly out

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Speaker 3: and Philly doesn't have the second day, they don't have

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Speaker 3: the guys to match up here.

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Speaker 1: Allen's playing really well.

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Speaker 3: And I mentioned this before, sometimes the Bills offense is

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Speaker 3: just a little off.

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Speaker 1: Just it's gonna look good.

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Speaker 3: They're still gonna put up points, but then when it clicks,

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Speaker 3: it's like a rocket ship for like four to five weeks.

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Speaker 3: So yeah, I can't get to overfield goal here. I

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Speaker 3: happy to take overfield. Eagles have been one of the

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Speaker 3: luckiest teams in the NFL. Go back to the Dallas game,

419
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Speaker 3: got destroyed. I mean they were out thoroughly outplayed, Dallas

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Speaker 3: just stepping out of bound, stopped at the one. Philly

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Speaker 3: recovered all three fumbles. Go back to the Chiefs, Mahomes

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Speaker 3: just throw throw it up at the red zone. Yeah,

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Speaker 3: Kelsey getting you know, fumbling it in the red zone.

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Speaker 3: Vada Scantling drops the game winning touchdown pass. I mean

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Speaker 3: the red zone voodoo and the fumble voodoo. You hurts recover.

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Speaker 3: These fumbles just keep falling into Philly's hands. Yeah, Eagles

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Speaker 3: have been extremely fortunate this season. That's not gonna last forever.

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Speaker 3: They have not looked great on either side of the

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Speaker 3: ball for weeks despite their record, and.

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Speaker 1: People are like, well, well we're winning. Yeah, well so of this.

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Speaker 3: The Steelers were ten and oh a couple of years ago.

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Speaker 1: It happened.

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Speaker 3: Sometimes it's a it's a game with an oblong ball

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Speaker 3: three and a half with the Bills all day here.

435
00:22:00,440 --> 00:22:03,680
Speaker 1: Yeah, I agree. I think the Bills are They're right

436
00:22:03,720 --> 00:22:06,639
Speaker 1: there with the Eagles. The Eagles really the team that

437
00:22:06,680 --> 00:22:10,880
Speaker 1: doesn't look quite right, all right. For my first pick

438
00:22:10,920 --> 00:22:14,200
Speaker 1: and the second overall of the week twelve six pack,

439
00:22:14,280 --> 00:22:16,440
Speaker 1: I'm going with the Houston Texans plus one and a

440
00:22:16,480 --> 00:22:21,760
Speaker 1: half at home against the Jaguars. Love this spot number one.

441
00:22:21,760 --> 00:22:24,840
Speaker 1: I'm getting points with CJ. Stroud, who we've talked about

442
00:22:24,880 --> 00:22:27,520
Speaker 1: at nauseum, one of the already one of the best

443
00:22:27,600 --> 00:22:31,479
Speaker 1: quarterbacks in the league. And I like the match up

444
00:22:31,520 --> 00:22:34,520
Speaker 1: here too because you know, Jacksonville one of the zone

445
00:22:34,560 --> 00:22:38,879
Speaker 1: heaviest defenses in the league. Houston number one in the

446
00:22:38,960 --> 00:22:43,520
Speaker 1: league in adjusted net yards and attempt against zone coverage

447
00:22:43,800 --> 00:22:47,440
Speaker 1: eight and a half. Last three games, Houston thirty points

448
00:22:47,480 --> 00:22:50,080
Speaker 1: a game, four hundred and eighty six yards of total

449
00:22:50,119 --> 00:22:52,679
Speaker 1: offense on average, and they left points on the table

450
00:22:53,280 --> 00:22:55,200
Speaker 1: with I mean, they didn't have a kicker in one

451
00:22:55,200 --> 00:22:58,320
Speaker 1: of the games, a couple of bad interceptions in the

452
00:22:58,359 --> 00:23:02,280
Speaker 1: red zones, tip balls so missfield goals, a lot of

453
00:23:02,320 --> 00:23:04,520
Speaker 1: things going on, so it could have been even. They

454
00:23:04,520 --> 00:23:07,520
Speaker 1: could have had even more points. And then I think

455
00:23:07,600 --> 00:23:11,119
Speaker 1: Houston just plays better at home, which makes sense for

456
00:23:11,240 --> 00:23:14,560
Speaker 1: you know, young quarterback, kind of new team, a lot

457
00:23:14,560 --> 00:23:17,720
Speaker 1: of new pieces, new coach, but at home twenty six

458
00:23:17,760 --> 00:23:20,720
Speaker 1: points per game, four hundred and ten yards on average

459
00:23:20,720 --> 00:23:23,720
Speaker 1: of total offense six point one yards per play, a

460
00:23:23,800 --> 00:23:26,800
Speaker 1: point differential of five and a half. On the road

461
00:23:27,880 --> 00:23:30,960
Speaker 1: twenty one point six points per game, just three hundred

462
00:23:30,960 --> 00:23:33,560
Speaker 1: and forty four yards five point four yards of play,

463
00:23:33,800 --> 00:23:37,439
Speaker 1: and their point differential is positive, but just by a

464
00:23:37,480 --> 00:23:41,280
Speaker 1: half point. So much better home team, and the defense

465
00:23:41,359 --> 00:23:43,800
Speaker 1: been a lot better since to Buy. Pre buy, they

466
00:23:43,800 --> 00:23:47,440
Speaker 1: were twenty thirty success rate. They were given up three

467
00:23:47,480 --> 00:23:49,840
Speaker 1: hundred and forty four yards a game. Since to Buy

468
00:23:50,320 --> 00:23:53,200
Speaker 1: up to number six in defensive success rate just under

469
00:23:53,240 --> 00:23:55,920
Speaker 1: forty percent, and they're given up just under three hundred

470
00:23:55,920 --> 00:23:58,119
Speaker 1: and fifteen yards a game. All three of their cornerbacks

471
00:23:58,160 --> 00:24:01,800
Speaker 1: now rank in the top thirty at PFF out of

472
00:24:01,800 --> 00:24:04,480
Speaker 1: one hundred and fourteen qualifiers. Stingley just got back. He's

473
00:24:04,480 --> 00:24:07,960
Speaker 1: actually the worst one. Nelson and the flat corner Thomas

474
00:24:08,000 --> 00:24:12,600
Speaker 1: are in the top sixteen. And this Jacksonville team, you know, nice,

475
00:24:12,800 --> 00:24:15,439
Speaker 1: nice stack up, stacking up some wins here. They're up

476
00:24:15,480 --> 00:24:17,880
Speaker 1: to seven and three, but I think they're a little

477
00:24:17,880 --> 00:24:21,840
Speaker 1: bit overrated. Cottageran theorem has them at five point seven wins,

478
00:24:21,840 --> 00:24:26,560
Speaker 1: so overachieving by over one win. They're averaging five point

479
00:24:26,560 --> 00:24:29,280
Speaker 1: one yards of play, allowing five and a half, they're

480
00:24:29,320 --> 00:24:32,680
Speaker 1: averaging six point two net yards per pass, allowing six

481
00:24:32,720 --> 00:24:36,480
Speaker 1: point four they're allowing they're averaging just three point seven

482
00:24:36,560 --> 00:24:39,680
Speaker 1: yards per carrying allowing three point nine. So I mean

483
00:24:40,280 --> 00:24:42,159
Speaker 1: this team is you know, they're getting now gained on

484
00:24:42,240 --> 00:24:45,920
Speaker 1: average by seven yards per game. So this Jacksonville team,

485
00:24:45,920 --> 00:24:48,040
Speaker 1: I think is a little getting running a little bit

486
00:24:48,119 --> 00:24:50,920
Speaker 1: lucky here. And if you look at who they beat

487
00:24:51,240 --> 00:24:55,280
Speaker 1: in their performance, it varies drastically by by the quality

488
00:24:55,280 --> 00:24:58,160
Speaker 1: of opponents, specifically a quality of the quarterback in the offense.

489
00:24:58,200 --> 00:25:05,920
Speaker 1: So Jacksonville versus Anthony Richardson, Desmond, Ritter Gardner, Minshew, Derek Carr,

490
00:25:05,960 --> 00:25:09,440
Speaker 1: Kenny Pickett, and Will Wevis six and oh straight up

491
00:25:09,720 --> 00:25:13,280
Speaker 1: six and oh against the spread point differential of thirteen

492
00:25:13,560 --> 00:25:20,440
Speaker 1: point three. Jacksonville against Mahomes Stroud, Josh Allen and Brock

493
00:25:20,480 --> 00:25:23,880
Speaker 1: Purty offenses one in three straight up, one in three

494
00:25:23,880 --> 00:25:28,520
Speaker 1: against the spread minus thirteen and a half point differential.

495
00:25:28,600 --> 00:25:33,560
Speaker 1: So I think that this Houston offense, can you know,

496
00:25:33,840 --> 00:25:35,480
Speaker 1: they put up thirty seven in the first meeting. A

497
00:25:35,480 --> 00:25:36,960
Speaker 1: lot of that there was a lot of luck involved

498
00:25:36,960 --> 00:25:38,479
Speaker 1: in that two it the game was a lot closer

499
00:25:38,480 --> 00:25:40,960
Speaker 1: than the nap but you had some special teams weirdness

500
00:25:40,960 --> 00:25:44,760
Speaker 1: going on there. But Jacksonville at seven and three against

501
00:25:44,800 --> 00:25:48,800
Speaker 1: the spread, when you have a divisional road favorite covering

502
00:25:48,920 --> 00:25:53,320
Speaker 1: seventy percent or more of the time forty seven and

503
00:25:53,520 --> 00:25:56,520
Speaker 1: seventy seven against the spread since two thousand and five

504
00:25:56,640 --> 00:26:00,879
Speaker 1: just thirty eight percent, so I make you Houston a

505
00:26:00,880 --> 00:26:06,200
Speaker 1: small favorite here. So I am all over the Texans

506
00:26:06,240 --> 00:26:08,920
Speaker 1: catching points at home in a game that what is it?

507
00:26:09,080 --> 00:26:12,120
Speaker 1: This was a leading the tie with Houston's what six

508
00:26:12,119 --> 00:26:12,400
Speaker 1: and four?

509
00:26:12,480 --> 00:26:12,560
Speaker 3: Right?

510
00:26:12,640 --> 00:26:14,280
Speaker 1: Yeah, this would be for a tie in the division.

511
00:26:14,720 --> 00:26:16,919
Speaker 1: So yeah, big game here, but gimme Houston.

512
00:26:18,560 --> 00:26:24,440
Speaker 3: Yeah, this would be for outright first place in the division.

513
00:26:25,160 --> 00:26:29,439
Speaker 3: Jags win, they go up by two games. If the

514
00:26:29,480 --> 00:26:32,800
Speaker 3: Texans win, they're in first place. We have a tie breaker, yep.

515
00:26:32,840 --> 00:26:33,480
Speaker 1: Yeah, they'd have a.

516
00:26:33,440 --> 00:26:37,280
Speaker 3: Season sweep over the Jags from that thirty seven to

517
00:26:37,320 --> 00:26:40,439
Speaker 3: seventeen win early in the season. So I grew I

518
00:26:40,520 --> 00:26:42,800
Speaker 3: like the Texans here too. All more on this later.

519
00:26:44,400 --> 00:26:44,719
Speaker 1: All right.

520
00:26:44,720 --> 00:26:48,800
Speaker 3: For my second pick and the third overall of the

521
00:26:48,840 --> 00:26:53,080
Speaker 3: week twelve Sunday six pack, I am going with the

522
00:26:53,119 --> 00:26:56,600
Speaker 3: Atlanta Falcons plus one at home against the New Orleans Saints.

523
00:26:57,920 --> 00:27:02,320
Speaker 3: These two teams to me are like near. I don't

524
00:27:02,400 --> 00:27:06,960
Speaker 3: like really either one of them. I like the Falcons

525
00:27:07,160 --> 00:27:10,280
Speaker 3: a little bit more overall, and the Falcons are a

526
00:27:10,280 --> 00:27:13,720
Speaker 3: little bit healthier. Saints just lost Michael Thomas. They won't

527
00:27:13,720 --> 00:27:16,080
Speaker 3: have Marshawn Lattimore. That's huge everything they want to do

528
00:27:16,440 --> 00:27:20,440
Speaker 3: on defense. Falcons, by the way, the unluckiest team in

529
00:27:20,520 --> 00:27:23,880
Speaker 3: our most recent luck rankings. Those things have been very

530
00:27:23,920 --> 00:27:25,840
Speaker 3: good to bet. If you haven't checked them out, make

531
00:27:25,880 --> 00:27:29,920
Speaker 3: sure you do. On the Action nevercapin Action Nework dot Com.

532
00:27:30,359 --> 00:27:33,320
Speaker 3: Falcons will get out on you. Mata backunt of revenge game.

533
00:27:33,320 --> 00:27:36,160
Speaker 3: Maybe they'll get Alfred back in the slot. He's been

534
00:27:36,160 --> 00:27:38,119
Speaker 3: good there. And then the wild card you want to

535
00:27:38,160 --> 00:27:41,040
Speaker 3: you want to hear a wild card for who's coming

536
00:27:41,080 --> 00:27:42,280
Speaker 3: back for the Falcons this week?

537
00:27:43,400 --> 00:27:45,639
Speaker 1: Who any guess?

538
00:27:47,160 --> 00:27:51,920
Speaker 3: Gasmin Ritter No Desert will start. I don't really care

539
00:27:51,920 --> 00:27:53,560
Speaker 3: who starts with the Falcons. I'll have any difference.

540
00:27:53,800 --> 00:27:59,560
Speaker 1: Uh Parker Hess Parker, I saw that he got off

541
00:27:59,600 --> 00:28:01,440
Speaker 1: the track. He's got injury with this now. Yeah, yeah,

542
00:28:01,720 --> 00:28:04,600
Speaker 1: he's practicing. He's gonna play. You might laugh at like,

543
00:28:04,600 --> 00:28:07,560
Speaker 1: who the hell is Parker HESSI? But their run numbers

544
00:28:07,800 --> 00:28:09,600
Speaker 1: last year. When he's on the field, they use them

545
00:28:09,640 --> 00:28:12,679
Speaker 1: as like a sixth offensive lineman, so I think that

546
00:28:12,760 --> 00:28:15,160
Speaker 1: it can provide a boost to their run which I'm

547
00:28:15,200 --> 00:28:19,480
Speaker 1: still I can't figure out why the Falcons rush efficiency

548
00:28:19,560 --> 00:28:23,399
Speaker 1: numbers are not better. Right, you have good backs, your

549
00:28:23,440 --> 00:28:27,640
Speaker 1: offensive line is good run blocking unit, so maybe hess

550
00:28:27,880 --> 00:28:30,080
Speaker 1: provides a boost. But I basically just think these two

551
00:28:30,080 --> 00:28:33,800
Speaker 1: teams are pretty equal. Falcons are healthier. I don't like

552
00:28:33,840 --> 00:28:38,720
Speaker 1: either staff, so there's no it's kind of like incompetence first. Incompetence,

553
00:28:39,080 --> 00:28:42,240
Speaker 1: I'll take the Falcons kicker. I'll take the healthier team.

554
00:28:42,280 --> 00:28:44,479
Speaker 1: I'll take the home field advantage.

555
00:28:45,440 --> 00:28:47,040
Speaker 3: In a game where both If you look at both

556
00:28:47,040 --> 00:28:48,640
Speaker 3: these teams, it's like, all right, they're both good against

557
00:28:48,640 --> 00:28:52,040
Speaker 3: the run, and then they both are are pretty mirror

558
00:28:52,720 --> 00:28:55,760
Speaker 3: But I make the Falcons a slight favorite. I'll take

559
00:28:55,800 --> 00:29:00,400
Speaker 3: them at home, catching a point. I actually trust offense

560
00:29:00,400 --> 00:29:01,720
Speaker 3: little more. I don't even know it's gonna be a

561
00:29:01,800 --> 00:29:05,760
Speaker 3: quarterback for the Saints. If it's Car, I think it's

562
00:29:05,760 --> 00:29:09,920
Speaker 3: probably gonna be Car coming off concussion protocol. But I

563
00:29:09,960 --> 00:29:12,080
Speaker 3: don't think that there's much of a difference price wise

564
00:29:12,520 --> 00:29:14,520
Speaker 3: between Winston and.

565
00:29:14,600 --> 00:29:18,200
Speaker 1: Carr, and I think it's gonna be Car.

566
00:29:18,280 --> 00:29:20,000
Speaker 3: And the way to attack this Atlanta team is you

567
00:29:20,040 --> 00:29:22,480
Speaker 3: got to attack down field. You got to hit explosive

568
00:29:22,480 --> 00:29:26,120
Speaker 3: passing plays. That's just not something Car is doing. So

569
00:29:26,320 --> 00:29:28,960
Speaker 3: I guess I would prefer Car to start here. But

570
00:29:29,040 --> 00:29:31,760
Speaker 3: if Winston starts, you know, I have a dog against Winston.

571
00:29:31,760 --> 00:29:34,960
Speaker 3: I mean, he could throw picks and so either way,

572
00:29:35,040 --> 00:29:36,680
Speaker 3: I like the Falcons. I think they get this win.

573
00:29:37,360 --> 00:29:41,200
Speaker 3: And I mean this is just sidebar that which just

574
00:29:41,200 --> 00:29:43,200
Speaker 3: makes sense the NFC South, like all these teams are

575
00:29:43,200 --> 00:29:46,320
Speaker 3: going to be like these three teams, the Bucks, Saints,

576
00:29:46,320 --> 00:29:48,720
Speaker 3: and the Falcons, they're all going to be like seven

577
00:29:48,760 --> 00:29:50,200
Speaker 3: and eight going into the last weekend.

578
00:29:51,440 --> 00:29:55,920
Speaker 1: Yeah, per usual. Uh yeah, I'd mean Falcons too. I mean,

579
00:29:56,000 --> 00:29:59,120
Speaker 1: like you said, it's kind of too just teams that

580
00:29:59,440 --> 00:30:02,680
Speaker 1: generally are bad in these kind of spots, like Falcons

581
00:30:02,680 --> 00:30:05,240
Speaker 1: at home under Arthur Smith they're bad. But the Saints

582
00:30:05,320 --> 00:30:10,400
Speaker 1: on the road, Derek Carr, Dennis Allen all bad. But yeah,

583
00:30:10,400 --> 00:30:13,080
Speaker 1: there could be. You know, we don't really know exactly

584
00:30:13,120 --> 00:30:15,640
Speaker 1: what's going on with the Saints quarterback situation. You did

585
00:30:15,680 --> 00:30:21,040
Speaker 1: lose two of your better players in Lattimore and Thomas

586
00:30:21,120 --> 00:30:25,720
Speaker 1: so and the Saints team already was not as good

587
00:30:25,720 --> 00:30:28,720
Speaker 1: as everyone hyped them up to be. They were just,

588
00:30:28,800 --> 00:30:31,040
Speaker 1: you know, just in a weak division. Everyone's like, all right, yes,

589
00:30:31,040 --> 00:30:33,720
Speaker 1: it's a ten win team. No, it's not the very

590
00:30:33,800 --> 00:30:36,920
Speaker 1: mediocre team. If that so Falcons. I mean, I just

591
00:30:37,040 --> 00:30:39,240
Speaker 1: I just don't know what Arthur Smith did with like

592
00:30:39,280 --> 00:30:42,280
Speaker 1: the guy who used to be sharp. That's that's kind

593
00:30:42,280 --> 00:30:45,640
Speaker 1: of my worry. But like going against Dennis Allen, that's legated, right,

594
00:30:45,760 --> 00:30:49,160
Speaker 1: It's it's I mean, Smith probably has the advantage. And this,

595
00:30:49,440 --> 00:30:52,560
Speaker 1: what are you something funny with the Saints. Yeah, I

596
00:30:52,560 --> 00:30:56,360
Speaker 1: would take Arthur Smith for sure. The Saints.

597
00:30:56,800 --> 00:31:01,040
Speaker 3: If you look at their wins this year, does Bryce

598
00:31:01,080 --> 00:31:02,560
Speaker 3: Young make it through the air? Bryce Young should be

599
00:31:02,560 --> 00:31:05,800
Speaker 3: a backup? But here are their wins. The Titans by

600
00:31:05,800 --> 00:31:08,120
Speaker 3: one against Tannehill.

601
00:31:08,160 --> 00:31:09,280
Speaker 1: He's no longer the quarterback.

602
00:31:10,120 --> 00:31:13,120
Speaker 3: The Panthers by three geinst Bryce Young has been the

603
00:31:13,120 --> 00:31:18,120
Speaker 3: worst quarterback in the league. The Patriots Matt Jones no

604
00:31:18,200 --> 00:31:25,080
Speaker 3: longer the quarterback. The Colts gets a backup quarterback, Tyson

605
00:31:25,160 --> 00:31:27,720
Speaker 3: Beigent no longer the quarterback.

606
00:31:27,960 --> 00:31:29,120
Speaker 1: I mean, they've all they did is beat.

607
00:31:28,960 --> 00:31:30,720
Speaker 3: And they had like five turners that game barely won.

608
00:31:31,320 --> 00:31:33,320
Speaker 3: Those are their wins. Titans by one. Titans have a

609
00:31:33,360 --> 00:31:40,360
Speaker 3: defensive touchdown called back, they would have won. But Titans, Panthers, Patriots, Colts,

610
00:31:40,880 --> 00:31:42,520
Speaker 3: and Bears with baigent like.

611
00:31:42,480 --> 00:31:45,120
Speaker 1: Come on. The only reason they're they're going to be

612
00:31:45,160 --> 00:31:48,200
Speaker 1: around is because of the schedule, and they're barely scraping by.

613
00:31:48,400 --> 00:31:54,880
Speaker 1: Like with the schedule they have barely For my second pick,

614
00:31:55,000 --> 00:32:00,640
Speaker 1: the fourth overall of the week, twelve Sunday six pack,

615
00:32:01,840 --> 00:32:04,000
Speaker 1: not a normal style pick for me, but I'm going

616
00:32:04,120 --> 00:32:08,320
Speaker 1: Niners a minus seven at the Seattle Seahawks, and a

617
00:32:08,360 --> 00:32:12,480
Speaker 1: couple of reasons why. First of all, I think something.

618
00:32:12,600 --> 00:32:16,040
Speaker 1: I think something's up with Seattle and Gino Smith here.

619
00:32:17,400 --> 00:32:20,320
Speaker 1: You know, he got hurt, comes out of game with

620
00:32:20,400 --> 00:32:23,320
Speaker 1: a what do they call it? A tricep contusion, comes

621
00:32:23,360 --> 00:32:27,440
Speaker 1: back in the game, makes one throw, needed to make

622
00:32:27,480 --> 00:32:33,080
Speaker 1: another throw, but he just hands the ball off instead.

623
00:32:33,880 --> 00:32:36,560
Speaker 1: And now he's like, oh yeah. The first they're saying

624
00:32:36,600 --> 00:32:39,200
Speaker 1: the the headset went out. Then they're saying it was

625
00:32:39,240 --> 00:32:43,600
Speaker 1: a run pass option or can he just not throw?

626
00:32:43,800 --> 00:32:46,280
Speaker 1: And then today I'm seeing, oh, Gino Smith is womitted

627
00:32:46,320 --> 00:32:49,280
Speaker 1: in practice. He's a first quarterback up. And then I

628
00:32:49,360 --> 00:32:52,000
Speaker 1: watched the video and he's just jogging, he's not throwing.

629
00:32:52,320 --> 00:32:54,240
Speaker 1: And then I see a report that Drew Wack is

630
00:32:54,280 --> 00:32:57,760
Speaker 1: taking the first team snap. So Pete Cow's notorious for

631
00:32:57,800 --> 00:33:02,040
Speaker 1: being overly optimistic with these injury report orts. Gino's being coy.

632
00:33:02,120 --> 00:33:04,680
Speaker 1: I mean, it could be all a mirage game games

633
00:33:04,720 --> 00:33:07,800
Speaker 1: and ship, but I don't think he sure week. Yeah,

634
00:33:07,840 --> 00:33:10,320
Speaker 1: I don't think Gino's health. I'm gonna say that, like

635
00:33:10,520 --> 00:33:12,560
Speaker 1: whether he starts or not. So I make this line

636
00:33:12,560 --> 00:33:16,240
Speaker 1: about just just a little over seven with Gino in,

637
00:33:16,920 --> 00:33:19,680
Speaker 1: but I make it total a lot higher with Gino in.

638
00:33:19,800 --> 00:33:21,400
Speaker 1: So the fact that it's sitting at forty three is

639
00:33:21,440 --> 00:33:24,360
Speaker 1: also kind of weird to me. But either way, that's

640
00:33:24,400 --> 00:33:26,280
Speaker 1: just one part of it. You know, if Gino plays

641
00:33:26,400 --> 00:33:30,920
Speaker 1: against his defense, whoever plays waw Gino, they're gonna struggle

642
00:33:30,960 --> 00:33:36,800
Speaker 1: because San Francisco the defense, what they do is they

643
00:33:36,800 --> 00:33:39,840
Speaker 1: stop exposive plays. They give up the fewest exposive plays

644
00:33:40,040 --> 00:33:42,120
Speaker 1: in the league. And I mentioned, you know, Hufonga, their

645
00:33:42,160 --> 00:33:44,720
Speaker 1: safety got hurt and he was great last year, pretty

646
00:33:44,760 --> 00:33:48,400
Speaker 1: good this year, but uh guya Brown or rookie has

647
00:33:48,440 --> 00:33:51,600
Speaker 1: been playing even better than Hufunga. So another one of

648
00:33:51,640 --> 00:33:54,000
Speaker 1: these situations kind of like the Vikings where like guys key,

649
00:33:54,040 --> 00:33:56,400
Speaker 1: guys get hurt and he's just not suffering any drop off.

650
00:33:56,480 --> 00:34:03,120
Speaker 1: But uh, Seahawks really bad on third down, but really

651
00:34:03,160 --> 00:34:06,920
Speaker 1: good at creating explosive plays. So they live off explosive plays,

652
00:34:07,280 --> 00:34:09,880
Speaker 1: but they can't convert third downs. They're six and exposive

653
00:34:09,880 --> 00:34:12,520
Speaker 1: to play. That's how they get offense. They're bottom three

654
00:34:12,560 --> 00:34:13,960
Speaker 1: and third down conversion rate, and this has been an

655
00:34:13,960 --> 00:34:16,920
Speaker 1: issue going back to last year. Red zone two. So

656
00:34:17,239 --> 00:34:19,680
Speaker 1: if if you're facing a defense that's gonna take away

657
00:34:19,719 --> 00:34:21,760
Speaker 1: the explosives and force you to drive down the field.

658
00:34:22,200 --> 00:34:23,840
Speaker 1: And by the way, a defense that's gonna get that

659
00:34:23,840 --> 00:34:27,160
Speaker 1: can get pressure with four yep, you could get pressure.

660
00:34:27,400 --> 00:34:29,120
Speaker 1: You can and you can even like this, they play

661
00:34:29,160 --> 00:34:30,480
Speaker 1: a lot of his own, but they can man up

662
00:34:30,520 --> 00:34:33,000
Speaker 1: if they if they want, and this is this is

663
00:34:33,520 --> 00:34:36,680
Speaker 1: a situation, they might do that, but they have there's

664
00:34:36,719 --> 00:34:39,000
Speaker 1: so many options now. They have such a deep defensive line,

665
00:34:39,000 --> 00:34:42,080
Speaker 1: which they added Chase Young, they added Gregory, you know,

666
00:34:42,160 --> 00:34:44,560
Speaker 1: like they're buying low and all these like first round

667
00:34:44,840 --> 00:34:49,279
Speaker 1: former first round picks. Uh and then you look back

668
00:34:49,320 --> 00:34:51,840
Speaker 1: at the track record, and it aligns perfectly with what

669
00:34:51,920 --> 00:34:55,520
Speaker 1: you think would happen when the Seahawks offense faces the

670
00:34:55,600 --> 00:34:58,279
Speaker 1: nine or d They faced each other three times last

671
00:34:58,360 --> 00:35:01,240
Speaker 1: year with this kind of current construction of each squad

672
00:35:01,920 --> 00:35:05,879
Speaker 1: more or less, and Gino barely average two hundred net

673
00:35:05,880 --> 00:35:08,520
Speaker 1: passing yards per game, the same amount of turnovers as

674
00:35:08,560 --> 00:35:12,000
Speaker 1: touchdowns three each, so you know, one touchdown per game.

675
00:35:12,719 --> 00:35:16,279
Speaker 1: He led the Seahawks to just fourteen points per game,

676
00:35:16,320 --> 00:35:20,680
Speaker 1: fourteen point three points per game over the three meetings

677
00:35:20,960 --> 00:35:24,239
Speaker 1: against the forty nine ers, So it's going to be

678
00:35:24,280 --> 00:35:26,760
Speaker 1: a struggle. And before you even factor in the injury

679
00:35:26,800 --> 00:35:29,400
Speaker 1: or the potential for Drew Locke. Dk Metcalf also popped

680
00:35:29,440 --> 00:35:31,880
Speaker 1: up with it as it did not practice on Tuesday,

681
00:35:32,800 --> 00:35:34,840
Speaker 1: so he's that, I mean, that's never good on a

682
00:35:34,880 --> 00:35:36,239
Speaker 1: short week. You know we're going to have one day

683
00:35:36,280 --> 00:35:41,239
Speaker 1: of practice left, sock lock is not one hundred and

684
00:35:41,280 --> 00:35:44,839
Speaker 1: Kennis Walker is looking likely to miss who Also, you're

685
00:35:44,840 --> 00:35:49,280
Speaker 1: losing some explosiveness there. So just a lot of things

686
00:35:50,400 --> 00:35:53,680
Speaker 1: just suboptimal, like worst case scenario on a short week

687
00:35:54,760 --> 00:35:57,759
Speaker 1: for Seattle. And then let's flip it over to the

688
00:35:57,800 --> 00:36:01,360
Speaker 1: San Francisco offense because thing about the San Francisco offense

689
00:36:01,520 --> 00:36:07,960
Speaker 1: is they finally have deebo, Iu Kittle, Trent Williams all

690
00:36:08,040 --> 00:36:12,399
Speaker 1: healthy at the same time. And this year they've had

691
00:36:12,440 --> 00:36:16,879
Speaker 1: those guys healthy seven games, and they've had at least

692
00:36:16,920 --> 00:36:18,839
Speaker 1: one of them out in the other, in the other

693
00:36:18,960 --> 00:36:23,400
Speaker 1: three and in the seven with them all together, san

694
00:36:23,400 --> 00:36:26,400
Speaker 1: Francisco averaging thirty one points a game with a point

695
00:36:26,400 --> 00:36:29,960
Speaker 1: differential of seventeen and a half with at least one

696
00:36:30,000 --> 00:36:31,279
Speaker 1: of them out. It doesn't matter. It could be more

697
00:36:31,280 --> 00:36:33,600
Speaker 1: than one, could be one, doesn't matter how many least

698
00:36:33,640 --> 00:36:36,759
Speaker 1: one of them out. Twenty one points per game and

699
00:36:37,040 --> 00:36:42,239
Speaker 1: a slightly negative point differentially. San Francisco offense is top

700
00:36:42,280 --> 00:36:45,040
Speaker 1: six on third down for the whole year, regardless of

701
00:36:45,040 --> 00:36:46,839
Speaker 1: who's in and who's out. Their top six on third down,

702
00:36:46,960 --> 00:36:50,200
Speaker 1: top six in the red zone. Seattle defense bottom five

703
00:36:50,239 --> 00:36:52,560
Speaker 1: on third down, bottom five in a red zone. So

704
00:36:52,600 --> 00:36:55,400
Speaker 1: on one side, you have a a team that stops

705
00:36:55,400 --> 00:36:58,040
Speaker 1: explosive play that Seattle lives on. On the other side,

706
00:36:58,160 --> 00:37:00,480
Speaker 1: you have a Seattle team that can't stop you know,

707
00:37:00,560 --> 00:37:04,600
Speaker 1: the situations that San Francisco just slices and dices you

708
00:37:04,680 --> 00:37:07,960
Speaker 1: up and puts points on the board and then if

709
00:37:07,960 --> 00:37:11,200
Speaker 1: you just look back and you say, okay, short week,

710
00:37:11,560 --> 00:37:13,680
Speaker 1: it is, you know, tough place to play in Seattle,

711
00:37:14,560 --> 00:37:18,200
Speaker 1: but San Francisco has you know, got in there and

712
00:37:18,920 --> 00:37:21,560
Speaker 1: won by at least eight last year. And I think

713
00:37:21,600 --> 00:37:23,880
Speaker 1: it was Perty's first night start or first start was

714
00:37:23,920 --> 00:37:27,120
Speaker 1: first and second start. But it's tough ways to play.

715
00:37:27,120 --> 00:37:29,520
Speaker 1: But if you look back and say, if you look

716
00:37:29,560 --> 00:37:31,319
Speaker 1: and say, okay, I think San Francisco is gonna win

717
00:37:31,360 --> 00:37:34,640
Speaker 1: because Seattle' pretty banged up. San Francisco's a better team.

718
00:37:34,880 --> 00:37:38,520
Speaker 1: All the matchup things I just mentioned, Well, San Francisco

719
00:37:38,560 --> 00:37:40,759
Speaker 1: when they win, they win big. They're kind of like

720
00:37:40,800 --> 00:37:43,680
Speaker 1: Buffalo was, you know last year. All seven wins this

721
00:37:43,760 --> 00:37:47,480
Speaker 1: year by at least seven points. For the Niners, six

722
00:37:47,560 --> 00:37:50,200
Speaker 1: of the seven wins this year by thirteen or more.

723
00:37:50,640 --> 00:37:53,520
Speaker 1: You go back to the start of last season, twenty

724
00:37:53,680 --> 00:37:56,799
Speaker 1: of their twenty two wins, including the postseason, have been

725
00:37:56,840 --> 00:38:00,239
Speaker 1: by at least seven. Eighteen of their twenty last twenty

726
00:38:00,280 --> 00:38:03,640
Speaker 1: two wins have been by eight or more, which is

727
00:38:03,800 --> 00:38:06,960
Speaker 1: relevant now that the lines moved to seven at most spots.

728
00:38:07,880 --> 00:38:11,040
Speaker 1: And Rock Purty thirteen of his fourteen wins have come

729
00:38:11,080 --> 00:38:13,839
Speaker 1: by at least seven. Eleven of his fourteen have come

730
00:38:13,840 --> 00:38:16,960
Speaker 1: by at least eight in his career starts, which means

731
00:38:17,000 --> 00:38:20,880
Speaker 1: seventy two percent of rock Purty starts period have ended

732
00:38:20,880 --> 00:38:24,080
Speaker 1: with them winning by seven. Sixty one percent of his

733
00:38:24,160 --> 00:38:27,280
Speaker 1: starts have ended with them winning by eight. And that's

734
00:38:27,360 --> 00:38:31,520
Speaker 1: all Throughout all games in the Division. Rock Purty average

735
00:38:31,520 --> 00:38:35,640
Speaker 1: margin of victory fifteen point four. Never lost the division game.

736
00:38:36,120 --> 00:38:39,719
Speaker 1: Every single win has been by at least seven points.

737
00:38:39,800 --> 00:38:43,279
Speaker 1: And you go back just to the start of last year,

738
00:38:43,719 --> 00:38:46,600
Speaker 1: every single Division game San Francisco's played, they've won, and

739
00:38:46,640 --> 00:38:50,600
Speaker 1: they've won by seven or more so, and then you

740
00:38:50,800 --> 00:38:54,240
Speaker 1: factor in Thanksgiving favorites since two thousand and four thirty

741
00:38:54,280 --> 00:38:57,120
Speaker 1: six and eighteen against the spread sixty seven percent road

742
00:38:57,160 --> 00:39:00,600
Speaker 1: favorites on Thanksgiving nineteen and six, seventy five five percent

743
00:39:01,160 --> 00:39:04,120
Speaker 1: public favorites, which means, which is rare that you know,

744
00:39:04,200 --> 00:39:08,239
Speaker 1: public favorites do well, because again that's kind of what

745
00:39:08,280 --> 00:39:10,840
Speaker 1: the books are trying to avoid. But public favorites on

746
00:39:10,880 --> 00:39:14,800
Speaker 1: Thanksgiving twenty eight and thirteen sixty eight percent against the

747
00:39:14,840 --> 00:39:19,320
Speaker 1: spread over the past two decades. So going with the

748
00:39:19,360 --> 00:39:21,880
Speaker 1: forty nine ers, I just think it's a brutal spot

749
00:39:21,960 --> 00:39:25,120
Speaker 1: for Seattle at like the home field is worth more

750
00:39:25,160 --> 00:39:27,920
Speaker 1: than most home fields. But that's pretty much the only

751
00:39:27,960 --> 00:39:31,320
Speaker 1: thing Seattle has working in its favorite right now. Brutal matchup,

752
00:39:31,400 --> 00:39:36,000
Speaker 1: brutal injury luck. So give me the Niners. Yeah, I

753
00:39:36,040 --> 00:39:36,719
Speaker 1: like to know honesty here.

754
00:39:36,719 --> 00:39:40,160
Speaker 3: I've money line Metal might close out my Thanksgiving parlay.

755
00:39:40,600 --> 00:39:42,400
Speaker 3: The only thing I worry about. You just got to

756
00:39:42,440 --> 00:39:45,239
Speaker 3: avoid the party mistakes. But the Seattle defense, I've been

757
00:39:45,280 --> 00:39:48,920
Speaker 3: saying it for weeks is overrated as a whole. If

758
00:39:48,920 --> 00:39:51,200
Speaker 3: you go back early in the season, people like the

759
00:39:51,239 --> 00:39:56,080
Speaker 3: Seattle rundy is really good. Since week five thirtieth in

760
00:39:56,200 --> 00:39:59,240
Speaker 3: EPA per rush and if you look, so what happened

761
00:39:59,560 --> 00:40:03,120
Speaker 3: before week five? You had three games? Here were the

762
00:40:03,160 --> 00:40:06,440
Speaker 3: three games. They played the Panthers. The Panthers thre Dalton

763
00:40:06,480 --> 00:40:09,960
Speaker 3: threw it sixty times. They only ran it fourteen times

764
00:40:09,960 --> 00:40:12,400
Speaker 3: in that game for forty yards. Then they played the

765
00:40:12,400 --> 00:40:15,480
Speaker 3: Giants third string offensive lineman with Matt Brita as their

766
00:40:15,560 --> 00:40:17,960
Speaker 3: lead back, so obviously they didn't do anything. Then they

767
00:40:17,960 --> 00:40:21,440
Speaker 3: played the Bengals, you know, before the Bengals really could

768
00:40:21,640 --> 00:40:24,840
Speaker 3: do anything with Burrow. The Bengals only ran it fifteen

769
00:40:24,920 --> 00:40:29,080
Speaker 3: times in that game for forty six yards. Since then,

770
00:40:29,520 --> 00:40:31,320
Speaker 3: everyone's been able to run it on Seattle. So I

771
00:40:32,120 --> 00:40:35,520
Speaker 3: think that narrative is I don't know, maybe still out there,

772
00:40:35,600 --> 00:40:37,640
Speaker 3: but I think that san farnof success running the ball.

773
00:40:39,200 --> 00:40:41,240
Speaker 1: Yeah, give me the Niners. Where're you going to thirty?

774
00:40:41,600 --> 00:40:44,960
Speaker 3: For my third pick and the fifth overall of the

775
00:40:45,000 --> 00:40:50,359
Speaker 3: week twelve Sunday six pack, I'm going with the Cincinnati

776
00:40:50,400 --> 00:40:56,120
Speaker 3: Bengals plus one against the Pittsburgh Steelers. Back to the formula.

777
00:40:57,040 --> 00:40:59,960
Speaker 3: One of the things that the Steelers voodoo regression that's coming.

778
00:41:00,280 --> 00:41:01,640
Speaker 3: One of the things that makes me happy is that

779
00:41:01,680 --> 00:41:05,359
Speaker 3: they play a ton of backup quarterbacks, which means, you know.

780
00:41:05,320 --> 00:41:06,239
Speaker 1: I was happy. I wasn't.

781
00:41:06,239 --> 00:41:07,759
Speaker 3: Like I said last week when Watson was out, I

782
00:41:07,800 --> 00:41:09,960
Speaker 3: was like, oh yeah, I get the Browns under a

783
00:41:09,960 --> 00:41:14,680
Speaker 3: field goal. Now similar spot here. This is so Look,

784
00:41:14,719 --> 00:41:16,319
Speaker 3: I mean number one the Steelers, there's still number one

785
00:41:16,320 --> 00:41:19,040
Speaker 3: of our luck rankings for a reason. Last week they

786
00:41:19,040 --> 00:41:20,520
Speaker 3: were projected to lose nineteen to five.

787
00:41:20,560 --> 00:41:21,080
Speaker 1: In that game.

788
00:41:21,400 --> 00:41:23,800
Speaker 3: They fired Matt Canada, as they should have. But what

789
00:41:24,160 --> 00:41:25,560
Speaker 3: are they What are you gonna do in four days?

790
00:41:25,719 --> 00:41:28,080
Speaker 3: I don't think it's gonna change much this week. Kenny

791
00:41:28,080 --> 00:41:30,080
Speaker 3: Pickett still refuses to throw in the middle of the field.

792
00:41:30,440 --> 00:41:33,520
Speaker 3: You can drive You could literally drive a super yacht

793
00:41:33,640 --> 00:41:37,280
Speaker 3: through his passing chart. Every week he just throws it aside.

794
00:41:37,280 --> 00:41:38,680
Speaker 3: And he's not comfortable throwing in the middle of the

795
00:41:38,719 --> 00:41:41,920
Speaker 3: field because he's not good. And that's where you have

796
00:41:41,920 --> 00:41:44,120
Speaker 3: to attack Sincy. You have to attack their safety. You

797
00:41:44,160 --> 00:41:48,000
Speaker 3: have to attack in the middle of the field. And look,

798
00:41:48,000 --> 00:41:52,319
Speaker 3: it's gonna be Jake Browning starting for Cincinnati. And I

799
00:41:52,360 --> 00:41:57,200
Speaker 3: love backing backup quarterbacks in this spot. First game, first start.

800
00:41:57,400 --> 00:41:59,319
Speaker 3: You have a couple of things here. This is since

801
00:41:59,320 --> 00:42:02,160
Speaker 3: he's season I mean, their seasons already over, but in

802
00:42:02,160 --> 00:42:04,080
Speaker 3: their heads right there, five and five, they got to

803
00:42:04,120 --> 00:42:06,279
Speaker 3: win this game, say in the wildcard hunt, or they're

804
00:42:06,280 --> 00:42:09,879
Speaker 3: done done. This is when everyone else rallies, right first

805
00:42:09,880 --> 00:42:11,719
Speaker 3: game of the backup quarterback, just like you know in

806
00:42:11,760 --> 00:42:14,560
Speaker 3: the NBA when the star players out a lot of times,

807
00:42:14,560 --> 00:42:17,200
Speaker 3: the market kind of over adjusts and everyone else knows

808
00:42:17,280 --> 00:42:19,040
Speaker 3: that have to step up and then you get like

809
00:42:19,080 --> 00:42:21,239
Speaker 3: a great effort that game and then the next game

810
00:42:21,280 --> 00:42:23,359
Speaker 3: after the stars that you you know, you come back

811
00:42:23,360 --> 00:42:27,560
Speaker 3: down to earth. Also, no film element of surprise. That's

812
00:42:27,560 --> 00:42:30,400
Speaker 3: why backup quarterbacks since twenty twenty making their first career

813
00:42:30,480 --> 00:42:34,640
Speaker 3: start nineteen seven and two against the spread. Everyone else

814
00:42:34,640 --> 00:42:39,319
Speaker 3: steps up. Lack of film, you have some unpredictability, so

815
00:42:39,480 --> 00:42:42,520
Speaker 3: Browning is not great. At least got his beak wet

816
00:42:42,560 --> 00:42:44,880
Speaker 3: in Baltimore. They'll have a pretty easy game plan for

817
00:42:44,960 --> 00:42:47,279
Speaker 3: him here. This game is gonna go similar to what

818
00:42:47,320 --> 00:42:50,040
Speaker 3: we saw last week. He'll throw it off the chase

819
00:42:50,080 --> 00:42:51,759
Speaker 3: a couple of times. Shahoul be one hundred percent here. We'll

820
00:42:51,760 --> 00:42:53,880
Speaker 3: see if Higgins can go. But it's gonna be a

821
00:42:53,920 --> 00:42:58,880
Speaker 3: low scoring, ugly game. I don't trust the Steelers offense

822
00:42:59,400 --> 00:43:02,640
Speaker 3: as far as I and throw them even against Jake Browning.

823
00:43:03,200 --> 00:43:06,600
Speaker 3: And by the way, the Steelers defense just lost the

824
00:43:06,680 --> 00:43:10,920
Speaker 3: dtr who was doing one red throws four yards the

825
00:43:11,040 --> 00:43:11,560
Speaker 3: entire game.

826
00:43:11,840 --> 00:43:12,440
Speaker 1: They made Jordan.

827
00:43:12,440 --> 00:43:14,680
Speaker 3: They should have lost the Jordan love and they could

828
00:43:14,719 --> 00:43:17,320
Speaker 3: have lost to Will Levis. Those quarterbacks have done nothing

829
00:43:17,520 --> 00:43:21,279
Speaker 3: in their other games, So this defense is overrated to

830
00:43:22,760 --> 00:43:24,399
Speaker 3: I think the Bengals. You get a max separate here,

831
00:43:24,520 --> 00:43:26,760
Speaker 3: extended rest with a couple extra days.

832
00:43:26,600 --> 00:43:28,160
Speaker 1: To prepare Browning. Yeah.

833
00:43:28,239 --> 00:43:31,200
Speaker 3: I like the Bengals as a home dog against this

834
00:43:31,239 --> 00:43:34,160
Speaker 3: Steelers team that has a ton of regressions. Still comings

835
00:43:34,440 --> 00:43:35,960
Speaker 3: this team should have three wins on the year.

836
00:43:36,960 --> 00:43:38,759
Speaker 1: The only thing I think I would be I think

837
00:43:38,760 --> 00:43:41,280
Speaker 1: it would have been more ideal if Matt Canada hadn't

838
00:43:41,280 --> 00:43:44,120
Speaker 1: been fired, honestly, because you know now you have some

839
00:43:44,200 --> 00:43:49,799
Speaker 1: of that, you know you do have it, and that's

840
00:43:49,840 --> 00:43:52,560
Speaker 1: not it. I mean, we've seen this with the Bills,

841
00:43:52,600 --> 00:43:54,440
Speaker 1: We've seen this with the Raiders. You know, it's just

842
00:43:54,680 --> 00:43:57,160
Speaker 1: it's not ideal. But I mean, I can't knock it.

843
00:43:57,360 --> 00:43:59,960
Speaker 1: I can't knock you for betting on the Steelers too,

844
00:44:00,000 --> 00:44:04,799
Speaker 1: who continue to regress, fading Kenny Pickett, who you know

845
00:44:04,840 --> 00:44:06,960
Speaker 1: Kenny Picketts. He's weighing points on the road.

846
00:44:07,080 --> 00:44:09,719
Speaker 3: So I mean, yeah, I honestly think that they'd be

847
00:44:09,760 --> 00:44:11,640
Speaker 3: better with Bortles aka Trubisky.

848
00:44:12,200 --> 00:44:17,040
Speaker 1: At this point, you've just been bortled. My third pick

849
00:44:17,080 --> 00:44:21,120
Speaker 1: in the sixth overall of the week twelve Sunday six pack,

850
00:44:21,560 --> 00:44:25,279
Speaker 1: I am going with the Los Angeles Rams minus one

851
00:44:25,480 --> 00:44:30,399
Speaker 1: at the Arizona Cardinals. And this is one where I've

852
00:44:30,440 --> 00:44:34,959
Speaker 1: adjusted for Kyler, I've adjusted for Cooper Cup being out,

853
00:44:35,040 --> 00:44:37,960
Speaker 1: which seems like he's gonna be ankle injury. They're calling

854
00:44:38,040 --> 00:44:39,919
Speaker 1: him day to day, But I don't think he's gonna

855
00:44:39,920 --> 00:44:42,680
Speaker 1: be out. But I've adjusted, you know, justin the Cardinals

856
00:44:42,760 --> 00:44:46,319
Speaker 1: up for Kyler, knocked the Rams down for Cooper Cup

857
00:44:46,360 --> 00:44:49,560
Speaker 1: and I still make the Rams, you know, closer to

858
00:44:50,320 --> 00:44:54,359
Speaker 1: a field goal favorite here on the road. So going

859
00:44:54,400 --> 00:44:56,920
Speaker 1: with the Rams here, I just think they are the

860
00:44:56,960 --> 00:44:59,799
Speaker 1: better team, and I think Arizona's luck is gonna run

861
00:44:59,840 --> 00:45:03,319
Speaker 1: out out whereas I think the Rams haven't fully hit

862
00:45:03,360 --> 00:45:05,399
Speaker 1: their stride yet. I think they're a little better than

863
00:45:05,760 --> 00:45:08,080
Speaker 1: the product that we've seed on the field. It's just

864
00:45:08,400 --> 00:45:10,719
Speaker 1: Rams are another team. You know, they started hot on

865
00:45:10,800 --> 00:45:13,400
Speaker 1: offense and the Cooper broke out, but just hasn't seemed

866
00:45:13,480 --> 00:45:15,960
Speaker 1: quite right. And maybe Kyen Williams coming back will help

867
00:45:15,960 --> 00:45:19,239
Speaker 1: because he's number one in the entire league in rush

868
00:45:19,280 --> 00:45:22,200
Speaker 1: success rate. The only the only player that has a

869
00:45:22,280 --> 00:45:26,200
Speaker 1: higher success rate on rush attempts than Jalen Hurts is

870
00:45:26,320 --> 00:45:29,680
Speaker 1: Kyen Williams. So that that's a good thing for the Rams.

871
00:45:29,800 --> 00:45:35,240
Speaker 1: But overall, when I look at this Cardinal team that offense,

872
00:45:35,440 --> 00:45:39,640
Speaker 1: I still don't think it's It's been a massive upgrade

873
00:45:39,760 --> 00:45:43,040
Speaker 1: from Murray to Dobbs. Murray's definitely added, you know, made

874
00:45:43,040 --> 00:45:45,600
Speaker 1: some great plays with his legs, but you look at

875
00:45:45,600 --> 00:45:49,400
Speaker 1: Arizona last week, for example, they catch used to napping

876
00:45:49,520 --> 00:45:51,760
Speaker 1: with ron Dell Moore, who almost never goes deep anymore.

877
00:45:51,760 --> 00:45:55,600
Speaker 1: He goes deep, catches a touchdown that's fifty two minutes

878
00:45:55,600 --> 00:45:57,080
Speaker 1: into the game. Minut and a half into the game,

879
00:45:57,360 --> 00:45:59,320
Speaker 1: they spend the next fifty eight and a half minutes

880
00:45:59,400 --> 00:46:02,320
Speaker 1: It's called ten end points, even though they got gifted

881
00:46:02,320 --> 00:46:06,600
Speaker 1: three turnovers and a missfield goal of nearly fifty yards.

882
00:46:06,600 --> 00:46:09,839
Speaker 1: So I think this Arizona team, you know, they got

883
00:46:09,920 --> 00:46:12,040
Speaker 1: lucky with the Falcon getting to play the Falcons. No

884
00:46:12,160 --> 00:46:17,319
Speaker 1: Grady Jarrett at home to start, and then you know

885
00:46:17,719 --> 00:46:23,600
Speaker 1: they I guess they covered, yeah, both, Yeah, they're just

886
00:46:23,880 --> 00:46:26,360
Speaker 1: they're just they're running away. They were running a little lucky.

887
00:46:26,680 --> 00:46:29,360
Speaker 1: And the way I look at it is the Falcons

888
00:46:29,800 --> 00:46:34,920
Speaker 1: a couple of weeks ago were laighing too two and

889
00:46:34,960 --> 00:46:38,200
Speaker 1: a half for much of that for much of the

890
00:46:38,239 --> 00:46:42,520
Speaker 1: week on the road in Arizona. And I have the

891
00:46:42,600 --> 00:46:47,280
Speaker 1: Rams rated better than the Falcons, so to get a point,

892
00:46:47,320 --> 00:46:49,680
Speaker 1: and some books I'm seeing like a pick them or

893
00:46:49,840 --> 00:46:52,920
Speaker 1: a plus one, so definitely shop around, can also take

894
00:46:52,960 --> 00:46:56,359
Speaker 1: money line. I'm totally cool with that. But I think

895
00:46:56,400 --> 00:46:58,400
Speaker 1: this Ram team is just better. I think they have

896
00:46:58,560 --> 00:47:02,479
Speaker 1: some positive regression coming there. They have just three wins

897
00:47:02,520 --> 00:47:06,040
Speaker 1: on a year tough schedule, but their Pythagora and theorem

898
00:47:06,880 --> 00:47:09,680
Speaker 1: says they should have four point three wins, and that's

899
00:47:09,760 --> 00:47:16,480
Speaker 1: even with the Brett Rippon catastrophe game included in that.

900
00:47:16,760 --> 00:47:20,480
Speaker 1: So I think the Rams are just I think the

901
00:47:20,560 --> 00:47:24,160
Speaker 1: Rams are just the better squad here. And when you

902
00:47:24,160 --> 00:47:28,799
Speaker 1: look at the Cardinals in Kyler Murray, this is where

903
00:47:28,840 --> 00:47:32,960
Speaker 1: you want to fade him. Generally at home in the division, Cower'

904
00:47:32,960 --> 00:47:35,200
Speaker 1: is one of those quarterbacks that you know you're catching

905
00:47:35,239 --> 00:47:38,680
Speaker 1: him as a dog on the road generally exceed expectations,

906
00:47:38,719 --> 00:47:41,840
Speaker 1: which makes sense. You know, you can create create things

907
00:47:41,840 --> 00:47:44,719
Speaker 1: out of thin air, but you know in these kind

908
00:47:44,760 --> 00:47:48,239
Speaker 1: of spots home games division, he tends to struggle. He's

909
00:47:48,239 --> 00:47:51,200
Speaker 1: been he struggled with this Raheem Morris defense through a

910
00:47:51,239 --> 00:47:55,120
Speaker 1: lot of different iterations, but overall he's just three and

911
00:47:55,160 --> 00:48:00,320
Speaker 1: eight against the spread at home in the division, failing

912
00:48:00,400 --> 00:48:03,520
Speaker 1: to cover by an average of seven and a half

913
00:48:03,520 --> 00:48:07,000
Speaker 1: points per game, so over a touchdown. The spread has

914
00:48:07,040 --> 00:48:10,200
Speaker 1: been too high on Kyla or any spot. So you

915
00:48:10,200 --> 00:48:13,160
Speaker 1: could probably wait on this one because I think money

916
00:48:13,280 --> 00:48:15,520
Speaker 1: is the money is on Arizona.

917
00:48:15,560 --> 00:48:15,719
Speaker 3: Here.

918
00:48:15,760 --> 00:48:18,839
Speaker 1: Money's coming in Arizona. So that's why you haven't seen

919
00:48:18,880 --> 00:48:21,879
Speaker 1: me put it in the app yet. I'll see where,

920
00:48:22,000 --> 00:48:24,200
Speaker 1: see where it ends up at the end of the day.

921
00:48:24,719 --> 00:48:27,160
Speaker 1: If I do miss it, I'm just gonna take Rams

922
00:48:27,239 --> 00:48:29,560
Speaker 1: money line. But I think there's a chance we might

923
00:48:29,600 --> 00:48:33,279
Speaker 1: get the Rams plus one or even better than that.

924
00:48:33,480 --> 00:48:37,960
Speaker 1: So give me La on the road against this number

925
00:48:38,520 --> 00:48:42,200
Speaker 1: thirty one ranked defense in Arizona that, by the way,

926
00:48:42,360 --> 00:48:47,200
Speaker 1: just lost their green dot in Kaiser White. So this

927
00:48:47,320 --> 00:48:49,920
Speaker 1: RAM team, probably their best offensive game was against the

928
00:48:49,960 --> 00:48:53,839
Speaker 1: Cardinals earlier this year. Tyron's back. He had a big game.

929
00:48:54,360 --> 00:48:57,800
Speaker 1: So I think they can do enough year. And they

930
00:48:58,080 --> 00:49:00,200
Speaker 1: have the better of the two defenses, and I have

931
00:49:00,200 --> 00:49:02,400
Speaker 1: the better the two offenses as well, So give me

932
00:49:02,719 --> 00:49:06,680
Speaker 1: the Rams. Uh yeah? Do feel here about leaning that way?

933
00:49:06,880 --> 00:49:07,719
Speaker 1: It's a circle of life.

934
00:49:07,760 --> 00:49:09,880
Speaker 3: In the NFC West, Rams on the Cardinals, who in

935
00:49:09,920 --> 00:49:12,320
Speaker 3: the forty nine Ers, who in the Rams who also

936
00:49:12,360 --> 00:49:13,200
Speaker 3: in the Seahawks.

937
00:49:13,480 --> 00:49:17,799
Speaker 1: Rams are nothing to recaps stuck as the Bills plus

938
00:49:17,880 --> 00:49:19,840
Speaker 1: three and a half, the Falcons plus one, and the

939
00:49:19,880 --> 00:49:22,719
Speaker 1: Bengals plus one. I have the Texans plus one and

940
00:49:22,760 --> 00:49:26,400
Speaker 1: a half niners minus seven Rams minus one, So we

941
00:49:26,440 --> 00:49:29,719
Speaker 1: actually have some pretty decent quarterbacks. Josh Allen, we're back

942
00:49:29,760 --> 00:49:32,720
Speaker 1: to normal. You got the better crowd YEP, I got Stroud,

943
00:49:32,960 --> 00:49:36,319
Speaker 1: Purty and Stafford, so that's actually that might be the

944
00:49:36,320 --> 00:49:40,600
Speaker 1: best I've ever oh and three incoming, But nah, just

945
00:49:40,719 --> 00:49:43,439
Speaker 1: I can't. I could, But you have Josh Allen pretty good,

946
00:49:43,560 --> 00:49:48,239
Speaker 1: Desmart Ridder not good. Jake Browning very not good. Although however,

947
00:49:48,320 --> 00:49:50,480
Speaker 1: who knows Jake brown it might be better than Desert

948
00:49:50,520 --> 00:49:54,480
Speaker 1: Ridder for all we know. Okay, that was our Sunday

949
00:49:54,480 --> 00:49:57,680
Speaker 1: six pack for week twelve. Now it's time for coached

950
00:49:57,680 --> 00:50:00,480
Speaker 1: pep talk. This is by far the world team that

951
00:50:00,520 --> 00:50:03,160
Speaker 1: has ever sat in this locker room. There's not one

952
00:50:03,200 --> 00:50:05,520
Speaker 1: of you, not one of you, that's learned how to win.

953
00:50:06,440 --> 00:50:10,280
Speaker 1: This week's pep talk comes to us from a nineteen

954
00:50:10,520 --> 00:50:14,480
Speaker 1: ninety film, My Blue Heaven, and we got to dedicate

955
00:50:14,480 --> 00:50:18,839
Speaker 1: this one to everyone's favorite NFL Italian American right now,

956
00:50:18,880 --> 00:50:23,280
Speaker 1: the one and only Tommy DeVito, fresh off a dub

957
00:50:23,520 --> 00:50:27,200
Speaker 1: against the Washington Commanders. I was in a hurry.

958
00:50:27,400 --> 00:50:29,600
Speaker 5: I was on my way to church to say a

959
00:50:29,640 --> 00:50:31,919
Speaker 5: few Nolvena's for Thanksgiving.

960
00:50:32,040 --> 00:50:33,840
Speaker 1: Thanksgiving is not a Catholic holiday.

961
00:50:34,280 --> 00:50:38,200
Speaker 5: Thanksgiving is very big with the Italians turkey catcher, tory,

962
00:50:38,719 --> 00:50:39,960
Speaker 5: sweet poteta, parmijan.

963
00:50:40,080 --> 00:50:43,239
Speaker 1: There is no such thing as Thanksgiving in Italy. It

964
00:50:43,280 --> 00:50:44,560
Speaker 1: is an American holiday.

965
00:50:44,880 --> 00:50:49,080
Speaker 5: Ever been to Sicily by any chance, No, Thanksgiving is

966
00:50:49,320 --> 00:50:52,879
Speaker 5: very big in Sicily on account of the large number

967
00:50:52,880 --> 00:50:56,320
Speaker 5: of Sicilians who went to America and then got thrown

968
00:50:56,360 --> 00:50:57,480
Speaker 5: back out.

969
00:50:58,080 --> 00:51:02,319
Speaker 1: Let's get in two favorite total of the week. I'm

970
00:51:02,360 --> 00:51:07,879
Speaker 1: going with the Chiefs Raiders under forty three another one.

971
00:51:07,920 --> 00:51:10,440
Speaker 1: Shop around so if you can get a forty three

972
00:51:10,520 --> 00:51:15,840
Speaker 1: and a half. But this is a very good Chiefs

973
00:51:15,840 --> 00:51:22,719
Speaker 1: defense on one side, number three in DVOA. And on

974
00:51:22,760 --> 00:51:26,040
Speaker 1: the other side you have a Raiders defense that does

975
00:51:26,080 --> 00:51:30,319
Speaker 1: not give up explosive plays. You've talked about this. This

976
00:51:30,400 --> 00:51:33,959
Speaker 1: is just that's kind of what they do and it's

977
00:51:34,040 --> 00:51:37,720
Speaker 1: been working for the Raiders for the most part. Their defense.

978
00:51:37,760 --> 00:51:40,279
Speaker 1: I can't remember the last time that they're this late

979
00:51:40,320 --> 00:51:44,480
Speaker 1: into the season. The Raiders had a respectable A rating

980
00:51:44,520 --> 00:51:48,160
Speaker 1: on defense, but they're sixteenth in DVOA. The Chiefs are fourth.

981
00:51:48,160 --> 00:51:52,440
Speaker 1: I misspoke, sorry, they're number three against the pass. But

982
00:51:52,560 --> 00:51:55,960
Speaker 1: for overall in DVOA, and then the Raiders are sixteen.

983
00:51:56,400 --> 00:52:00,839
Speaker 1: Both of these teams too. Yep, yep, yep. He's one

984
00:52:00,840 --> 00:52:03,239
Speaker 1: of the better defensive coordinators. I think, you know, he

985
00:52:03,320 --> 00:52:05,440
Speaker 1: makes it work up in the booth, so you know,

986
00:52:06,040 --> 00:52:08,560
Speaker 1: not everyone has to come back down to the sidelines

987
00:52:08,600 --> 00:52:12,520
Speaker 1: and whatnot. But yeah, so the Raiders and the Chiefs,

988
00:52:12,560 --> 00:52:17,560
Speaker 1: both of them have been very good at limiting explosive plays,

989
00:52:17,600 --> 00:52:21,880
Speaker 1: and you know, that is something that very valuable obviously

990
00:52:21,880 --> 00:52:23,600
Speaker 1: when you're talking about a total, especially when you're talking

991
00:52:23,600 --> 00:52:27,280
Speaker 1: about a total that is in the you know, mid forties,

992
00:52:27,560 --> 00:52:30,799
Speaker 1: because if you don't have explosive plays, you can have

993
00:52:31,280 --> 00:52:34,799
Speaker 1: good offense. It's just long drives, which I think the

994
00:52:34,880 --> 00:52:37,560
Speaker 1: Chiefs at some point they're gonna have to get right.

995
00:52:37,920 --> 00:52:41,480
Speaker 1: People are gonna have to stop dropping passes. But you know,

996
00:52:42,200 --> 00:52:45,839
Speaker 1: the Vegas defense is giving up the fifth newest explosives,

997
00:52:46,520 --> 00:52:48,680
Speaker 1: so it's not gonna be easy. He's probably gonna take

998
00:52:48,719 --> 00:52:52,719
Speaker 1: some longer drives. Probably wean on the run. Pacheco has

999
00:52:52,760 --> 00:52:55,920
Speaker 1: been playing well, and on the other side, Kansas City's

1000
00:52:55,920 --> 00:52:59,080
Speaker 1: given up the seventh fewest explosive plays themselves mentioned it

1001
00:52:59,120 --> 00:53:02,000
Speaker 1: top four in DdO number three against the past eight

1002
00:53:02,040 --> 00:53:06,239
Speaker 1: and O'Connell's liable to take sacks, and coming off a

1003
00:53:06,239 --> 00:53:09,080
Speaker 1: three pick game. I kind of like situations like this

1004
00:53:09,680 --> 00:53:12,759
Speaker 1: for unders because you know, when you're coming off a

1005
00:53:12,800 --> 00:53:16,839
Speaker 1: three pick game, especially it's his first multi interception game

1006
00:53:17,120 --> 00:53:20,399
Speaker 1: in the pros, I think, you know, next you're gonna

1007
00:53:20,400 --> 00:53:22,359
Speaker 1: come out the next week, be a little more conservative,

1008
00:53:23,280 --> 00:53:25,400
Speaker 1: trying not to turn the ball over, and maybe, you know,

1009
00:53:25,440 --> 00:53:27,880
Speaker 1: maybe the sacks come back, because you know that first

1010
00:53:28,160 --> 00:53:31,200
Speaker 1: start against the Chargers you had seven sacks. Then you

1011
00:53:31,239 --> 00:53:34,120
Speaker 1: played the Bears in relief, you didn't get sacked. You

1012
00:53:34,120 --> 00:53:36,160
Speaker 1: play the Giants who get no you know, they were

1013
00:53:36,200 --> 00:53:38,160
Speaker 1: just out of sorts and didn't get any sacks. But

1014
00:53:38,200 --> 00:53:41,160
Speaker 1: then three sacks against the Jets, two more against Miami.

1015
00:53:41,719 --> 00:53:44,120
Speaker 1: So I think you might see even you know, three

1016
00:53:44,239 --> 00:53:47,960
Speaker 1: four five in this game. Anything, you know, not to

1017
00:53:48,040 --> 00:53:50,839
Speaker 1: throw the picks again, just keep him in the game.

1018
00:53:51,280 --> 00:53:54,279
Speaker 1: And the Raiders, I'm sure you know, Antonio Pierce is

1019
00:53:54,280 --> 00:53:57,680
Speaker 1: now the head coach defensive guy, so I'm sure he

1020
00:53:57,760 --> 00:54:00,680
Speaker 1: is going to have that mentality of let's keep let's

1021
00:54:00,680 --> 00:54:02,600
Speaker 1: play it shortened the game, let's keep the ball out

1022
00:54:02,640 --> 00:54:05,279
Speaker 1: of Patrick Mahomes' hands. Going to hand the ball to

1023
00:54:05,360 --> 00:54:07,719
Speaker 1: Josh Jacobs, and you can. The Chiefs aren't great on

1024
00:54:07,800 --> 00:54:11,600
Speaker 1: run defense. That's you know, that's their their weak weakness,

1025
00:54:11,640 --> 00:54:14,520
Speaker 1: their twenty seven. So you can kind of move the ball,

1026
00:54:15,000 --> 00:54:20,160
Speaker 1: run lead some clock, but ultimately you're not gonna get explosives.

1027
00:54:20,200 --> 00:54:22,719
Speaker 1: I think you're going to see long drives from both teams.

1028
00:54:22,760 --> 00:54:26,560
Speaker 1: And if you look at the track records of these

1029
00:54:26,560 --> 00:54:30,160
Speaker 1: two teams this year, seven out of the ten Kansas

1030
00:54:30,200 --> 00:54:32,719
Speaker 1: City games have ended on a total of forty three

1031
00:54:32,840 --> 00:54:34,759
Speaker 1: or below. Nine out of the ten Raider games have

1032
00:54:34,880 --> 00:54:38,959
Speaker 1: ended on a total of forty three or below. Both

1033
00:54:38,960 --> 00:54:44,319
Speaker 1: of these teams multiple unders in a row team when

1034
00:54:44,360 --> 00:54:47,520
Speaker 1: teams have been both teams in a game have gone

1035
00:54:47,600 --> 00:54:50,600
Speaker 1: under at least three times in a row entering the

1036
00:54:51,239 --> 00:54:54,680
Speaker 1: matchup forty seven, twenty eight, and one to the under

1037
00:54:54,920 --> 00:54:57,360
Speaker 1: in that next game sixty three percent over the last

1038
00:54:57,760 --> 00:55:01,080
Speaker 1: two decades, So you know, sometimes things like that reverse.

1039
00:55:01,320 --> 00:55:04,600
Speaker 1: But this is kind of well established with these two

1040
00:55:04,960 --> 00:55:06,560
Speaker 1: what these two teams do and what they are, and

1041
00:55:06,600 --> 00:55:09,120
Speaker 1: I think I think the Chiefs, I think both of

1042
00:55:09,120 --> 00:55:11,520
Speaker 1: these teams. Really the market's been a little slow, especially

1043
00:55:11,760 --> 00:55:15,359
Speaker 1: the casual better just a little bit slow. Probably you

1044
00:55:15,400 --> 00:55:18,680
Speaker 1: think of the Chiefs great offense, but you know defense

1045
00:55:18,719 --> 00:55:21,640
Speaker 1: that just does enough. But their defense against the passes

1046
00:55:21,640 --> 00:55:23,680
Speaker 1: excellent this year. And then the Raiders same thing. I

1047
00:55:23,760 --> 00:55:25,799
Speaker 1: think the Raiders, oh man, one of the worst defense

1048
00:55:25,840 --> 00:55:28,000
Speaker 1: in the league because they have been for what two

1049
00:55:28,040 --> 00:55:32,600
Speaker 1: decades now, but they're right there, right right on average,

1050
00:55:32,640 --> 00:55:34,920
Speaker 1: slightly above average and not giving up big plays. So

1051
00:55:35,280 --> 00:55:38,279
Speaker 1: both of these defenses I think are underrated. And in

1052
00:55:38,280 --> 00:55:41,400
Speaker 1: twenty twenty three, when you have a total in the

1053
00:55:41,560 --> 00:55:44,080
Speaker 1: you know, in the forties, and I can get you know,

1054
00:55:44,120 --> 00:55:47,959
Speaker 1: two defenses who are top seven against explosives, I'm taking

1055
00:55:47,960 --> 00:55:50,960
Speaker 1: that all day. So under forty three Chief Raiders.

1056
00:55:51,640 --> 00:55:53,120
Speaker 3: Yeah, and the Chiefs can't score in the second half,

1057
00:55:53,160 --> 00:55:56,960
Speaker 3: I'd like it. For my favorite total, I'm gonna go

1058
00:55:58,080 --> 00:56:01,360
Speaker 3: we going back to and over. I'm gonna go Colts

1059
00:56:01,480 --> 00:56:04,600
Speaker 3: Bucks over forty three and a half. A couple of

1060
00:56:04,640 --> 00:56:08,200
Speaker 3: things working in why I like this total.

1061
00:56:09,120 --> 00:56:09,319
Speaker 1: One.

1062
00:56:09,360 --> 00:56:11,839
Speaker 3: Colts play fast, which will help Bucks middle the road

1063
00:56:11,840 --> 00:56:15,799
Speaker 3: and pace. Uh. But Bucks defense really good against the run,

1064
00:56:15,840 --> 00:56:20,320
Speaker 3: as you'd expect, but you can get them in the secondary,

1065
00:56:20,680 --> 00:56:24,200
Speaker 3: especially now you got Dean Davis and David are all hurt,

1066
00:56:24,800 --> 00:56:26,839
Speaker 3: their d's are all hurt. On defense. I don't think

1067
00:56:26,840 --> 00:56:28,520
Speaker 3: any of them are gonna play this week. We'll see,

1068
00:56:28,800 --> 00:56:32,200
Speaker 3: but that back end can be exposed. And on the

1069
00:56:32,200 --> 00:56:35,040
Speaker 3: other side, the Colts defense talk about a secondary that

1070
00:56:35,040 --> 00:56:37,759
Speaker 3: could be exposed. Their secondary is awful. They also miss

1071
00:56:37,800 --> 00:56:41,319
Speaker 3: Grover Storre upfront, especially in the run game. Coony pays

1072
00:56:41,360 --> 00:56:44,680
Speaker 3: not at one hundred percent. They just cut Leonard what

1073
00:56:44,760 --> 00:56:45,279
Speaker 3: is his name?

1074
00:56:45,640 --> 00:56:52,800
Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, what happened there? He's he just couldn't play.

1075
00:56:53,760 --> 00:56:56,560
Speaker 1: He was just too slow, like the injury just took

1076
00:56:56,560 --> 00:56:59,000
Speaker 1: their toe. So essentially they wanted to use him just

1077
00:56:59,040 --> 00:57:02,440
Speaker 1: like a a a two down early down linebacker, and

1078
00:57:02,719 --> 00:57:07,000
Speaker 1: but he was like vocally asking just like I don't

1079
00:57:07,000 --> 00:57:09,640
Speaker 1: know anyone in particular, but essentially the media like what

1080
00:57:09,719 --> 00:57:13,280
Speaker 1: am I doing wrong? Like why am I not playing?

1081
00:57:13,480 --> 00:57:16,000
Speaker 1: They got to get rid of him essentially well in

1082
00:57:16,360 --> 00:57:18,640
Speaker 1: a quality of play thing, like he just wasn't good

1083
00:57:18,720 --> 00:57:22,000
Speaker 1: enough to keep on the field, and he wasn't essentially

1084
00:57:22,080 --> 00:57:25,919
Speaker 1: one of their top lineback like top three. I guess ye.

1085
00:57:25,880 --> 00:57:30,640
Speaker 3: Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, I've been cutting him, Like do

1086
00:57:30,680 --> 00:57:33,680
Speaker 3: you get there's no like Benet that It's very odd.

1087
00:57:33,720 --> 00:57:35,880
Speaker 1: Probably a pride thing too. I mean he's you know,

1088
00:57:36,040 --> 00:57:38,680
Speaker 1: he was looked at as one of the leaders and

1089
00:57:38,720 --> 00:57:40,720
Speaker 1: one of the best at one point, so for him

1090
00:57:40,720 --> 00:57:43,000
Speaker 1: to fall that far, probably thought it best to just

1091
00:57:43,040 --> 00:57:44,520
Speaker 1: you know cut him now with him catching on with

1092
00:57:44,560 --> 00:57:46,920
Speaker 1: another team, I guess, which probably.

1093
00:57:46,800 --> 00:57:48,600
Speaker 3: Mean he grades out as one of the worst linebackers

1094
00:57:48,600 --> 00:57:49,400
Speaker 3: in this year.

1095
00:57:51,240 --> 00:57:53,200
Speaker 1: But uh yeah.

1096
00:57:53,240 --> 00:57:58,160
Speaker 3: Anyway, So Colt's back end attackable and Bucks had heavy

1097
00:57:58,160 --> 00:58:00,840
Speaker 3: reserve aggression coming on both ends. They can't stay, haven't

1098
00:58:00,840 --> 00:58:02,560
Speaker 3: been able to score in the red zone, very fluky,

1099
00:58:03,880 --> 00:58:06,520
Speaker 3: and they'd lead the NFL somehow in red zone defense.

1100
00:58:06,840 --> 00:58:08,280
Speaker 3: Part of that's because they're going to against the run,

1101
00:58:08,280 --> 00:58:11,320
Speaker 3: but they're giving up touchdowns on like thirty two percent

1102
00:58:11,640 --> 00:58:12,520
Speaker 3: of red zone trips.

1103
00:58:12,560 --> 00:58:14,680
Speaker 1: That's going to change. I think the pace will be

1104
00:58:15,040 --> 00:58:15,360
Speaker 1: high here.

1105
00:58:15,400 --> 00:58:18,480
Speaker 3: I think both teams will go a little bit more

1106
00:58:18,520 --> 00:58:22,080
Speaker 3: pass heavy than they've been based on the matchup, and

1107
00:58:22,440 --> 00:58:23,840
Speaker 3: I like this over forty three and a half. I

1108
00:58:23,880 --> 00:58:26,200
Speaker 3: think it's a little suppress based on the scoring environment,

1109
00:58:26,240 --> 00:58:28,560
Speaker 3: but I think this sets up as a sneaky shootout.

1110
00:58:29,040 --> 00:58:31,040
Speaker 1: This would have been my pick if the Chief Raiders

1111
00:58:31,240 --> 00:58:34,360
Speaker 1: weren't on the board. I totally agree that those injuries

1112
00:58:34,360 --> 00:58:36,480
Speaker 1: for the Bucks just do it. And I mean I

1113
00:58:36,480 --> 00:58:38,280
Speaker 1: guess you could in a way, you could say, well,

1114
00:58:38,480 --> 00:58:41,000
Speaker 1: it's not ideal that the Bucks can stop the run,

1115
00:58:41,000 --> 00:58:44,560
Speaker 1: and the Colts do want to run, but you know,

1116
00:58:44,680 --> 00:58:48,880
Speaker 1: I think more throwing equals more explosives. But also you

1117
00:58:48,880 --> 00:58:52,400
Speaker 1: could get some minshew, maybe a fumble turnover, get some

1118
00:58:52,400 --> 00:58:55,120
Speaker 1: points on the board that way. So I think it's

1119
00:58:55,120 --> 00:58:55,520
Speaker 1: a good match.

1120
00:58:55,560 --> 00:58:57,400
Speaker 3: And I think the Colts have a smart staff, so

1121
00:58:57,400 --> 00:58:58,640
Speaker 3: I don't think they're going to try to run in

1122
00:58:58,680 --> 00:59:00,680
Speaker 3: the walls, and I think they're going to go pass heavier,

1123
00:59:00,920 --> 00:59:02,440
Speaker 3: which is an account for in this total.

1124
00:59:03,520 --> 00:59:06,160
Speaker 1: Yeah, all right, yeah, so Indie Tampa Bay over forty

1125
00:59:06,160 --> 00:59:08,439
Speaker 1: three and a half, Vegas Casey under forty three shop

1126
00:59:08,520 --> 00:59:10,720
Speaker 1: rounds if you get the be half on that as well.

1127
00:59:11,280 --> 00:59:14,280
Speaker 1: Now it's time for our favorite teaser of the week.

1128
00:59:15,520 --> 00:59:24,400
Speaker 1: Oh yeah, six point teasers. Don't want, don't change, don't

1129
00:59:24,480 --> 00:59:34,120
Speaker 1: tease me. Stuck your nine and two, nine and two

1130
00:59:34,200 --> 00:59:38,040
Speaker 1: on this show on teasers. Uh, I'm seven and four

1131
00:59:38,120 --> 00:59:42,040
Speaker 1: so combined for sixteen and six, so pretty good, pretty

1132
00:59:42,080 --> 00:59:45,760
Speaker 1: profitable teaser year for us. But you especially where you're going.

1133
00:59:45,600 --> 00:59:49,120
Speaker 3: This week, let's go. Let's tease through the three and

1134
00:59:49,200 --> 00:59:52,640
Speaker 3: seven of both part of both sides Browns two and

1135
00:59:52,680 --> 00:59:54,760
Speaker 3: a half to eight and a half. This should be

1136
00:59:54,840 --> 00:59:58,480
Speaker 3: I mean, look the whether their defense plays man heavy,

1137
00:59:58,600 --> 01:00:01,720
Speaker 3: get pressure, bring press. Sure could be a nightmare for

1138
01:00:01,800 --> 01:00:06,240
Speaker 3: Russell Wilson, who against any blitz he's just completely folding.

1139
01:00:06,720 --> 01:00:08,600
Speaker 3: He's been really good against zone, not against man. Now

1140
01:00:08,640 --> 01:00:12,280
Speaker 3: you're going against the most man heavy defense in the league.

1141
01:00:12,720 --> 01:00:14,320
Speaker 3: I don't think the Denver offense is gonna do much.

1142
01:00:14,360 --> 01:00:16,880
Speaker 3: Denver defense also turn out a regression. They've been getting

1143
01:00:16,960 --> 01:00:19,760
Speaker 3: very fortunate the last couple of weeks. Brown's offense is

1144
01:00:19,760 --> 01:00:22,000
Speaker 3: not gonna do much. They're gonna treat this like last week.

1145
01:00:22,920 --> 01:00:25,680
Speaker 3: Keep it low scoring, trust in the defense. I mean

1146
01:00:25,680 --> 01:00:30,120
Speaker 3: his total is super low, getting over touchdowns super valuable.

1147
01:00:30,240 --> 01:00:33,880
Speaker 3: And then the Texans. I like the Texans in this game.

1148
01:00:34,320 --> 01:00:36,840
Speaker 3: I make them a small favorite, so teasing them up

1149
01:00:37,200 --> 01:00:41,080
Speaker 3: above a touchdown even if they're down fourteen late somehow,

1150
01:00:41,320 --> 01:00:44,040
Speaker 3: I mean, straddle go down the field and get in

1151
01:00:44,120 --> 01:00:46,320
Speaker 3: the back door for the teaser. But I think they win,

1152
01:00:46,520 --> 01:00:51,439
Speaker 3: so not a super high total either. So yeah, give

1153
01:00:51,480 --> 01:00:58,080
Speaker 3: me the Texans and the Browns teasing through three and

1154
01:00:58,440 --> 01:01:00,120
Speaker 3: seven on each.

1155
01:01:01,880 --> 01:01:04,400
Speaker 1: Yeah this, you know it would be an ideal situation.

1156
01:01:05,320 --> 01:01:11,040
Speaker 1: Would be if the Broncos one by exactly seven, so

1157
01:01:11,400 --> 01:01:15,360
Speaker 1: you know, convincingly enough because guess where they go next

1158
01:01:15,360 --> 01:01:21,800
Speaker 1: week to Houston. Definitely definitely want to fade the Broncos.

1159
01:01:21,880 --> 01:01:24,600
Speaker 1: They would be coming off a five game straight up

1160
01:01:24,600 --> 01:01:28,160
Speaker 1: winning streak if if they're able to beat Cleveland.

1161
01:01:28,280 --> 01:01:30,400
Speaker 3: A pretty fortunate one exactly.

1162
01:01:30,400 --> 01:01:33,960
Speaker 1: That's my point, so you know that, And that line is,

1163
01:01:34,000 --> 01:01:37,400
Speaker 1: I doubt the Texans would even be laying a field goal,

1164
01:01:37,560 --> 01:01:39,400
Speaker 1: you know, so probably be under a field goal.

1165
01:01:39,640 --> 01:01:42,360
Speaker 3: You gotta the Texans, don't kill We've gotta need thee. Yeah,

1166
01:01:43,000 --> 01:01:44,040
Speaker 3: Texans win by one.

1167
01:01:44,680 --> 01:01:49,840
Speaker 1: Yeah they're usual, right, that's all they do. But yeah,

1168
01:01:49,920 --> 01:01:52,800
Speaker 1: it's that's setting up that the fade spot is setting

1169
01:01:52,920 --> 01:01:57,440
Speaker 1: up perfectly because yeah, I've thought about Cleveland this week,

1170
01:01:57,520 --> 01:02:00,160
Speaker 1: but I just I don't think we've seen that. I meant,

1171
01:02:00,480 --> 01:02:04,280
Speaker 1: now we have two games super inefficient, Uh the Broncos

1172
01:02:04,320 --> 01:02:07,320
Speaker 1: not great, but better better offense than the Steelers at

1173
01:02:07,440 --> 01:02:09,520
Speaker 1: least a little bit court and Sutton will just make

1174
01:02:09,520 --> 01:02:12,440
Speaker 1: a circus catch. Steorge Pickens will do it, but he

1175
01:02:12,440 --> 01:02:16,280
Speaker 1: won't get his feed in. So advantage and advantage Broncos

1176
01:02:16,280 --> 01:02:18,560
Speaker 1: on that one. But yeah, send out to drop it,

1177
01:02:19,520 --> 01:02:22,560
Speaker 1: Oh my god. So for my teaser, I'm going with

1178
01:02:23,000 --> 01:02:27,360
Speaker 1: the uh the Texans as well, and then going with

1179
01:02:27,760 --> 01:02:31,920
Speaker 1: the forty nine Ers down to a point. Not that

1180
01:02:32,240 --> 01:02:34,040
Speaker 1: really need it, but those are just two of my

1181
01:02:34,080 --> 01:02:36,840
Speaker 1: favorite plays, so I'm not gonna over complicate it here.

1182
01:02:37,720 --> 01:02:40,560
Speaker 1: I'm just gonna go Niners down seven to one and

1183
01:02:41,280 --> 01:02:43,920
Speaker 1: Texans one and a half up to seven and a half.

1184
01:02:44,520 --> 01:02:47,919
Speaker 1: Stuck as Cleveland eight and a half and Houston seven

1185
01:02:47,920 --> 01:02:50,800
Speaker 1: and a half. Those are our teasers. We'll get into

1186
01:02:50,920 --> 01:02:54,760
Speaker 1: our money line underdog parlay in a sect. But I

1187
01:02:54,920 --> 01:02:58,040
Speaker 1: just want to remind you that the Action Network podcast

1188
01:02:58,240 --> 01:03:01,200
Speaker 1: is presented by Bett MG and you can use bonus

1189
01:03:01,200 --> 01:03:05,120
Speaker 1: code Action Action when signing up to get up to

1190
01:03:05,280 --> 01:03:09,320
Speaker 1: fifteen hundred dollars paid back in bonus bets if your

1191
01:03:09,360 --> 01:03:18,560
Speaker 1: first bet loses. For new users in Arizona, Colorado, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan,

1192
01:03:18,720 --> 01:03:23,480
Speaker 1: New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, Virginia, West Virginia, and Wyoming.

1193
01:03:23,560 --> 01:03:27,320
Speaker 1: Terms and conditions apply. Must be twenty one or older.

1194
01:03:27,320 --> 01:03:32,840
Speaker 1: Gambling problem call one eight hundred gambler All right, Time

1195
01:03:32,880 --> 01:03:35,440
Speaker 1: for our money line underdog parlay.

1196
01:03:38,000 --> 01:03:42,920
Speaker 3: Turning good weekends into great weekends. It's time for the

1197
01:03:43,080 --> 01:03:44,400
Speaker 3: money line parlay.

1198
01:03:45,520 --> 01:03:49,520
Speaker 1: So we hit the plus three sixty with the Rams

1199
01:03:49,520 --> 01:03:52,280
Speaker 1: and Packers last week, so let's keep it going. What

1200
01:03:52,320 --> 01:03:54,200
Speaker 1: are you doing for the moneyline dog this week?

1201
01:03:55,200 --> 01:04:02,800
Speaker 3: Let's go with mister Tommy DeVito, Hello Italian American?

1202
01:04:03,200 --> 01:04:03,960
Speaker 1: What do I always do?

1203
01:04:04,040 --> 01:04:05,280
Speaker 3: And what do I do a lot of times with

1204
01:04:05,280 --> 01:04:09,920
Speaker 3: these money quarterback uncertainty? So yeah, obviously they're still uncertainty

1205
01:04:09,920 --> 01:04:13,560
Speaker 3: with the Beato. He was better last week. But the Patriots,

1206
01:04:13,560 --> 01:04:16,000
Speaker 3: they don't even know their quarterback's gonna be. Bill Belichick

1207
01:04:16,040 --> 01:04:19,160
Speaker 3: came out and said, everyone be ready to go. I'll

1208
01:04:19,240 --> 01:04:22,080
Speaker 3: let everyone know the quarterback is on Sunday. I mean,

1209
01:04:22,760 --> 01:04:25,560
Speaker 3: who knows, will Greer Bailey's appy. I don't think it's

1210
01:04:25,560 --> 01:04:27,960
Speaker 3: gonna be Matt Jones. But what you want with the

1211
01:04:27,960 --> 01:04:34,120
Speaker 3: money line dog ideally is uncertainty, and we have that here.

1212
01:04:34,400 --> 01:04:37,240
Speaker 3: I don't who knows what the Patriots are gonna look like.

1213
01:04:38,840 --> 01:04:41,120
Speaker 3: They're there and they're just a mess. They're a mess.

1214
01:04:41,160 --> 01:04:46,360
Speaker 3: Belichick has lost it, The team has lost it. The

1215
01:04:46,400 --> 01:04:51,920
Speaker 3: Giants are still fighting at least, and yeah, give me

1216
01:04:51,920 --> 01:04:53,480
Speaker 3: the New York Giants with all the uncertainty.

1217
01:04:54,920 --> 01:04:57,880
Speaker 1: Yeah, that even that plus three is looking pretty tempting.

1218
01:04:57,920 --> 01:05:01,400
Speaker 1: I mean, the Patriots shouldn't be favored on the road

1219
01:05:02,680 --> 01:05:05,560
Speaker 1: versus anyone by that by that margin. But at the

1220
01:05:05,560 --> 01:05:08,560
Speaker 1: same time, the Giants got so lucky with six turnovers

1221
01:05:08,680 --> 01:05:11,400
Speaker 1: that I mean, this is just a shit show. So yeah,

1222
01:05:11,520 --> 01:05:13,240
Speaker 1: I think this is kind of the perfect time to

1223
01:05:13,880 --> 01:05:14,680
Speaker 1: take a moneyline.

1224
01:05:14,680 --> 01:05:14,880
Speaker 4: Dog.

1225
01:05:14,920 --> 01:05:19,640
Speaker 1: I'll go with the Buffalo Bills here simply because I

1226
01:05:19,680 --> 01:05:21,920
Speaker 1: think they can win. But I also you know, the

1227
01:05:22,000 --> 01:05:24,880
Speaker 1: Eagles when they do win, they sim they don't. It

1228
01:05:24,920 --> 01:05:27,160
Speaker 1: doesn't ever seem to come down to a field goal anyway.

1229
01:05:27,200 --> 01:05:29,400
Speaker 1: It's always like, you know what, that beat Dallas by

1230
01:05:29,520 --> 01:05:33,720
Speaker 1: five and the Chiefs by four. It's like it's one

1231
01:05:33,800 --> 01:05:36,600
Speaker 1: of those teams that I don't mind just taking the

1232
01:05:36,600 --> 01:05:39,720
Speaker 1: money line here with Buffalo. You already broke it down,

1233
01:05:39,800 --> 01:05:42,480
Speaker 1: so I'm not gonna be labored the point. But Buffalo

1234
01:05:42,760 --> 01:05:48,040
Speaker 1: is plus one forty five on the money line and

1235
01:05:48,280 --> 01:05:50,520
Speaker 1: the g Men or plus one forty. So if you're

1236
01:05:50,520 --> 01:05:54,280
Speaker 1: parlay the g Men plus one forty the Bills plus

1237
01:05:54,280 --> 01:05:58,360
Speaker 1: one forty five, you get plus four eighty eight. Of course,

1238
01:05:59,000 --> 01:06:03,200
Speaker 1: can always take them into visually as well. But that

1239
01:06:03,320 --> 01:06:06,439
Speaker 1: would be a nice, juicy parlay that I think has

1240
01:06:06,480 --> 01:06:09,400
Speaker 1: a pretty good chance of hitting two New York teams too.

1241
01:06:09,440 --> 01:06:13,800
Speaker 1: So rematch of Super Bowl, one of those Super Bowls,

1242
01:06:14,200 --> 01:06:17,080
Speaker 1: the one with the wide right super Bowl. But that's

1243
01:06:17,120 --> 01:06:20,640
Speaker 1: our moneyline dog parlay, Giants host of the Pats, and

1244
01:06:20,680 --> 01:06:24,920
Speaker 1: the Bills at the Eagles. Now it's time for the

1245
01:06:24,960 --> 01:06:27,120
Speaker 1: best of the rest. Games we haven't covered in any

1246
01:06:27,200 --> 01:06:32,080
Speaker 1: other segment, but are still, as they say, meaningful to

1247
01:06:32,160 --> 01:06:33,840
Speaker 1: some That's going to.

1248
01:06:33,880 --> 01:06:35,960
Speaker 4: Be a touchdown, but that may be meaningful to some

1249
01:06:36,080 --> 01:06:38,520
Speaker 4: of you, so you know what I mean.

1250
01:06:39,000 --> 01:06:40,919
Speaker 1: All right? First off, we got the Black Friday Game,

1251
01:06:41,120 --> 01:06:47,080
Speaker 1: Miami at the Jets, Dolphins favored by ten on the road.

1252
01:06:47,360 --> 01:06:50,800
Speaker 1: The total is forty one. I mean, this is this

1253
01:06:50,880 --> 01:06:55,680
Speaker 1: is tough because just from a pure power rating perspective,

1254
01:06:55,760 --> 01:07:00,920
Speaker 1: even after adjusting, I mean in you can only adjust

1255
01:07:00,960 --> 01:07:03,200
Speaker 1: so much when you're the starting point is Zach Wilson.

1256
01:07:03,240 --> 01:07:08,040
Speaker 1: But even after adjusting, Ken is pretty is a lot.

1257
01:07:08,120 --> 01:07:12,560
Speaker 1: It's it's inflated. But yeah, but I cannot bring myself

1258
01:07:12,640 --> 01:07:15,840
Speaker 1: to back Boyle. We were talking about him off air,

1259
01:07:15,880 --> 01:07:18,000
Speaker 1: I mean, there's really nothing positive. What did you say?

1260
01:07:18,040 --> 01:07:21,720
Speaker 3: He threw like one touchdown and fourteen interceptions of college

1261
01:07:22,400 --> 01:07:24,360
Speaker 3: like bro that was a real style line.

1262
01:07:24,440 --> 01:07:26,600
Speaker 1: How did he get to the NFL? I don't know.

1263
01:07:27,160 --> 01:07:31,240
Speaker 3: He must be like a really smart scout guy that

1264
01:07:31,320 --> 01:07:35,080
Speaker 3: can like just knows the knows the plays and because

1265
01:07:35,120 --> 01:07:36,920
Speaker 3: he just was behind Rogers forever.

1266
01:07:37,040 --> 01:07:39,000
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think he's a smart guy and knew knew

1267
01:07:39,000 --> 01:07:41,520
Speaker 1: who to hitch his ride to because he's just Rogers'

1268
01:07:41,520 --> 01:07:42,200
Speaker 1: personal caddy.

1269
01:07:42,280 --> 01:07:45,120
Speaker 3: It seems like, yeah, he did start three games cover

1270
01:07:45,240 --> 01:07:49,160
Speaker 3: two somehow with the lines a couple of years back,

1271
01:07:49,880 --> 01:07:51,400
Speaker 3: you had him in the six pack. One week he

1272
01:07:51,520 --> 01:07:53,800
Speaker 3: lost all three, but he covered one got blown out

1273
01:07:53,800 --> 01:07:57,520
Speaker 3: by Seattle. Yeah I can't. I yeah, cover two three,

1274
01:07:57,600 --> 01:07:58,240
Speaker 3: I can't get that.

1275
01:07:58,400 --> 01:07:58,800
Speaker 1: I can't.

1276
01:07:58,880 --> 01:08:01,360
Speaker 3: I can't get to this number. The Jets defense is

1277
01:08:01,360 --> 01:08:04,840
Speaker 3: still really good. They got embarrassed last week the Dolphins.

1278
01:08:04,840 --> 01:08:06,600
Speaker 3: I was surprised their offense looked as poor as it

1279
01:08:06,600 --> 01:08:10,600
Speaker 3: did last week two after the bye week. I also

1280
01:08:10,640 --> 01:08:13,080
Speaker 3: expected their defense to I mean, that game went under

1281
01:08:13,120 --> 01:08:16,439
Speaker 3: with ease, but like I expected a crisper effort from Miami.

1282
01:08:16,439 --> 01:08:20,360
Speaker 3: It was a little disappointing, But anytime that Jets defense

1283
01:08:21,720 --> 01:08:24,080
Speaker 3: you can get double digits at home after an embarrassing

1284
01:08:24,160 --> 01:08:29,519
Speaker 3: effort and and and it boils awful. I mean, I

1285
01:08:29,520 --> 01:08:31,840
Speaker 3: think Simon would be the better option. I bet he'll

1286
01:08:31,840 --> 01:08:34,759
Speaker 3: probably ye quick, quick cook, and you'll go to Simon

1287
01:08:34,880 --> 01:08:40,120
Speaker 3: quick Sala said. He's very very short leash, like the

1288
01:08:40,280 --> 01:08:41,400
Speaker 3: backup that's ready to go.

1289
01:08:42,760 --> 01:08:45,120
Speaker 1: The actors gave me. I hope. I don't know if

1290
01:08:45,160 --> 01:08:47,559
Speaker 1: I don't think. I think I saw like a one

1291
01:08:47,600 --> 01:08:50,600
Speaker 1: to sixty for boil passing yards but I don't know

1292
01:08:50,600 --> 01:08:52,679
Speaker 1: where that was, and I don't know if it's out everywhere.

1293
01:08:52,680 --> 01:08:55,400
Speaker 1: But yeah, that's that's a great fade spot for a

1294
01:08:55,439 --> 01:08:57,920
Speaker 1: prop iff a quarterback on a short reach under his

1295
01:08:58,320 --> 01:09:00,960
Speaker 1: passing yardage. Yeah, would you you can still go under

1296
01:09:02,120 --> 01:09:04,280
Speaker 1: right right? So yeah, that I'll be I'll be looking

1297
01:09:04,280 --> 01:09:05,519
Speaker 1: for that. But yeah, I mean, are you so are

1298
01:09:05,560 --> 01:09:07,120
Speaker 1: you gonna? Did you take the punger ready? Are you

1299
01:09:07,160 --> 01:09:09,800
Speaker 1: going to? I haven't. I'm thinking about it. I'm thinking

1300
01:09:09,840 --> 01:09:12,560
Speaker 1: about you really don't want to. Like It's just I

1301
01:09:12,560 --> 01:09:14,599
Speaker 1: guess it depends what kind of mood I'm in after

1302
01:09:14,800 --> 01:09:19,000
Speaker 1: I wake up on Friday morning. Probably it's jets. Yeah,

1303
01:09:19,000 --> 01:09:22,559
Speaker 1: oh yeah, absolutely absolutely. I you know I see some people,

1304
01:09:22,680 --> 01:09:25,639
Speaker 1: you know, some money is coming in on Miami and listen.

1305
01:09:25,720 --> 01:09:29,200
Speaker 1: I get it, but like, this is why we this

1306
01:09:29,240 --> 01:09:32,080
Speaker 1: is why we crunch the numbers. You know, the Jets

1307
01:09:32,120 --> 01:09:35,040
Speaker 1: have and listen, And that's why it's kind of psychologically

1308
01:09:35,040 --> 01:09:37,800
Speaker 1: hard to do, because you know, the Jets have been

1309
01:09:38,280 --> 01:09:41,720
Speaker 1: losing big in spots where there's any competent offense on

1310
01:09:41,760 --> 01:09:46,160
Speaker 1: the other side of yeah, they're not the pan the Panthers.

1311
01:09:46,280 --> 01:09:47,519
Speaker 3: The Jets have an elite unit.

1312
01:09:48,280 --> 01:09:49,519
Speaker 1: The Panthers are just that.

1313
01:09:49,600 --> 01:09:51,760
Speaker 3: Every once in a while, there's a team, regardless of

1314
01:09:51,760 --> 01:09:53,439
Speaker 3: your numbers, there's a team that you just can't catch

1315
01:09:53,479 --> 01:09:58,800
Speaker 3: up to. Yeah, the Panthers, to me, they're unbedable bet

1316
01:09:58,800 --> 01:10:01,839
Speaker 3: once and I'm like, nope, they're playing the Titans.

1317
01:10:02,000 --> 01:10:02,599
Speaker 1: I'm not laying.

1318
01:10:02,680 --> 01:10:05,120
Speaker 3: We can talk about that game, but I'm I'm.

1319
01:10:04,960 --> 01:10:09,160
Speaker 1: Not any other team. Any other team will levis laying

1320
01:10:09,160 --> 01:10:11,840
Speaker 1: three and a half, like you gotta get you gotta

1321
01:10:11,840 --> 01:10:14,680
Speaker 1: fait the other side. But like the Panthers, Nope, don't.

1322
01:10:15,040 --> 01:10:17,000
Speaker 3: I spent four seconds on that game. I just looked

1323
01:10:17,000 --> 01:10:19,360
Speaker 3: at it and said, nope, no.

1324
01:10:18,800 --> 01:10:21,360
Speaker 1: No, no, Derek Henry will probably have a big game,

1325
01:10:21,439 --> 01:10:23,960
Speaker 1: but I mean, yeah, and that's that's the next game.

1326
01:10:24,040 --> 01:10:26,519
Speaker 1: So three and a half. The Titans are favored by

1327
01:10:26,560 --> 01:10:30,280
Speaker 1: at home total thirty six and a half. Will Levis

1328
01:10:30,280 --> 01:10:32,559
Speaker 1: did not practice on He was not let me say

1329
01:10:32,600 --> 01:10:35,639
Speaker 1: this guy, he was not spotted at practice on Tuesday,

1330
01:10:35,640 --> 01:10:38,519
Speaker 1: which I believe is just a walk through anyway. So

1331
01:10:38,960 --> 01:10:41,799
Speaker 1: not a massive concern because I think Tannehill is healthy.

1332
01:10:41,840 --> 01:10:45,760
Speaker 1: But kind of interesting, I guess because I don't know

1333
01:10:45,800 --> 01:10:49,599
Speaker 1: anymore if I don't know if Tannehill might actually be

1334
01:10:50,000 --> 01:10:52,240
Speaker 1: an upgrade over Levis the way Levis has played since

1335
01:10:52,280 --> 01:10:57,240
Speaker 1: that Falcon game. So if something you know does transpire,

1336
01:10:57,960 --> 01:11:01,200
Speaker 1: I think the Titans become a little bit more palatable.

1337
01:11:01,240 --> 01:11:04,040
Speaker 1: But I'm not laying points with the rookie quarterback at

1338
01:11:04,080 --> 01:11:06,120
Speaker 1: three and a half and more than a hook, no

1339
01:11:06,240 --> 01:11:08,840
Speaker 1: less in a low total game. But you can't. You

1340
01:11:08,920 --> 01:11:11,320
Speaker 1: just can't touch the Panthers. So yeah, I don't think

1341
01:11:11,360 --> 01:11:16,080
Speaker 1: we need to spend any more time in that Ravens Chargers.

1342
01:11:16,520 --> 01:11:19,320
Speaker 1: What are your thoughts on Baltimore in this one? You

1343
01:11:19,320 --> 01:11:22,040
Speaker 1: know they have the long rest the Chargers, I mean

1344
01:11:22,920 --> 01:11:26,080
Speaker 1: another one. I mean this, Brandon Staley has to be

1345
01:11:26,160 --> 01:11:28,479
Speaker 1: coaching for his job at this point. I mean, it's

1346
01:11:28,479 --> 01:11:31,320
Speaker 1: not like you're expecting to beat the Ravens because they're

1347
01:11:31,360 --> 01:11:33,360
Speaker 1: the better team. But you pretty much have to beat

1348
01:11:33,360 --> 01:11:35,920
Speaker 1: the Ravens because you know you expected to be a

1349
01:11:35,920 --> 01:11:38,720
Speaker 1: playoff team and you're just lost to the Packers. So

1350
01:11:39,840 --> 01:11:41,879
Speaker 1: this is kind of a muscling game for the Chargers.

1351
01:11:42,160 --> 01:11:45,040
Speaker 1: But they're free and half point underdogs at home. The

1352
01:11:45,080 --> 01:11:48,240
Speaker 1: totals forty seven. What are you thinking, Yeah, extended rest

1353
01:11:48,280 --> 01:11:48,919
Speaker 1: the Ravens.

1354
01:11:49,120 --> 01:11:51,639
Speaker 3: There's not a big home field for the Chargers either,

1355
01:11:52,400 --> 01:11:57,519
Speaker 3: but over a field goal, i'd lean Chargers here, you

1356
01:11:57,560 --> 01:11:59,720
Speaker 3: know you have I don't know, we'll see there's some

1357
01:11:59,800 --> 01:12:01,599
Speaker 3: in that I want to watch for the Ravens. I mean,

1358
01:12:01,600 --> 01:12:05,040
Speaker 3: Mark Andrews obviously is a big loss. We'll see on

1359
01:12:05,160 --> 01:12:11,800
Speaker 3: Humphrey and then Stanley as well. But so I think

1360
01:12:11,800 --> 01:12:14,320
Speaker 3: that this is like your desperation Charter spot, and anytime

1361
01:12:14,360 --> 01:12:15,640
Speaker 3: you can get Herbert it is like they should have

1362
01:12:15,680 --> 01:12:18,120
Speaker 3: won last week. They just a ton of drops. Anytime

1363
01:12:18,120 --> 01:12:20,040
Speaker 3: you can get Herbert as a dog over a field goal,

1364
01:12:20,800 --> 01:12:25,559
Speaker 3: it's intriguing. And the Ravens secondary, especially with that they've

1365
01:12:25,600 --> 01:12:29,960
Speaker 3: benefited so much from quarterback luck. Like who they faced.

1366
01:12:30,080 --> 01:12:31,639
Speaker 3: It's a really good defense, one of the best defenses

1367
01:12:31,640 --> 01:12:34,200
Speaker 3: in the NFL. But like every week. I mean, then

1368
01:12:34,240 --> 01:12:36,720
Speaker 3: you have Burrow gets started against them, you face it,

1369
01:12:36,960 --> 01:12:39,680
Speaker 3: face Burrow as a ghost in the week two or

1370
01:12:39,760 --> 01:12:42,760
Speaker 3: week one. So I think there's a little bit of

1371
01:12:42,840 --> 01:12:44,479
Speaker 3: value on the charters about Kiel, but it's not a

1372
01:12:44,479 --> 01:12:47,080
Speaker 3: great matchup, like the way that they play defense, and

1373
01:12:47,120 --> 01:12:53,120
Speaker 3: now you don't have Bosa. Schematically it's bad Lamar's ankle.

1374
01:12:53,120 --> 01:12:55,920
Speaker 3: He says, it's one hundred percent. That's some more uncertainty

1375
01:12:55,920 --> 01:12:58,519
Speaker 3: in this game. He was like jumping around and they

1376
01:12:58,560 --> 01:13:00,320
Speaker 3: asked him about it and he was like jumping, jumped,

1377
01:13:00,400 --> 01:13:01,080
Speaker 3: was jumping up and down.

1378
01:13:01,120 --> 01:13:02,040
Speaker 1: Said I'm one hundred percent.

1379
01:13:02,600 --> 01:13:06,080
Speaker 3: So presumably that's not an issue.

1380
01:13:06,479 --> 01:13:09,120
Speaker 1: But the offensive it's not the same without Andrews.

1381
01:13:10,080 --> 01:13:14,519
Speaker 3: They'll have to get likely in company more involved and

1382
01:13:14,520 --> 01:13:17,040
Speaker 3: don't have to do more when Andrews isn't on the field.

1383
01:13:17,520 --> 01:13:21,320
Speaker 3: But small lean to the Chargers just on a on

1384
01:13:21,400 --> 01:13:23,599
Speaker 3: a gut feel, it feels it feels like a field

1385
01:13:23,600 --> 01:13:24,160
Speaker 3: goal game to me.

1386
01:13:25,280 --> 01:13:29,880
Speaker 1: All right, well there you go, uh do survivor and

1387
01:13:29,880 --> 01:13:39,639
Speaker 1: then get up out of here. The Survivor Pool pick

1388
01:13:39,680 --> 01:13:44,559
Speaker 1: of the week. So we just just barely about the

1389
01:13:44,600 --> 01:13:49,360
Speaker 1: skin of our teeth. Detroit last week, which I you

1390
01:13:49,360 --> 01:13:51,240
Speaker 1: told me to think Jacksonville would have been much less

1391
01:13:51,240 --> 01:13:53,840
Speaker 1: of a sweat. But here we are. This is a

1392
01:13:53,880 --> 01:14:03,080
Speaker 1: tough week. I'm pretty much between Minnesota and Tennessee, which

1393
01:14:03,280 --> 01:14:05,680
Speaker 1: which makes me want to just go Minnesota because I

1394
01:14:05,720 --> 01:14:08,280
Speaker 1: feel like the Bears. I feel like Minnesota is still

1395
01:14:09,160 --> 01:14:14,559
Speaker 1: like Minnesota is like a good team with some injuries,

1396
01:14:14,600 --> 01:14:19,240
Speaker 1: whereas I really don't like the Titans. I don't know

1397
01:14:19,280 --> 01:14:21,720
Speaker 1: what they are. It was the Bears seem to find

1398
01:14:21,840 --> 01:14:24,080
Speaker 1: ways to lose. What do you think?

1399
01:14:26,400 --> 01:14:29,320
Speaker 3: Uh? If I had to choose, I would go Titans

1400
01:14:29,320 --> 01:14:31,439
Speaker 3: just because it's against the Panthers and the Bears are

1401
01:14:31,479 --> 01:14:33,759
Speaker 3: like feistier now and it's a divisional game.

1402
01:14:37,000 --> 01:14:39,120
Speaker 1: Yeah, but I could never live with myself if I

1403
01:14:39,120 --> 01:14:42,439
Speaker 1: get knocked out after all this by fucking losing to

1404
01:14:42,520 --> 01:14:45,400
Speaker 1: the Panthers like that. I like, I would just take

1405
01:14:45,400 --> 01:14:47,320
Speaker 1: the l with my guy justin Field. Yeah, I gotta go.

1406
01:14:47,360 --> 01:14:49,320
Speaker 1: I gotta go Vikings just to keep on brand. I

1407
01:14:49,439 --> 01:14:56,879
Speaker 1: just I mean, yeah, I actually can't use the Giants.

1408
01:14:56,920 --> 01:15:00,120
Speaker 1: I used them against the Cardinals. So I'm actually one

1409
01:15:00,120 --> 01:15:02,439
Speaker 1: of six remaining in our Action Network pool out of

1410
01:15:02,439 --> 01:15:05,400
Speaker 1: one hundred and forty eight. So yeah, I'm gonna go Minnesota.

1411
01:15:05,560 --> 01:15:08,439
Speaker 1: I don't. I mean, I feel better about Minnesota, and

1412
01:15:08,640 --> 01:15:12,680
Speaker 1: I think I think you know, people you know classic right, like,

1413
01:15:12,720 --> 01:15:15,639
Speaker 1: you know, you see the Bears play really well against

1414
01:15:15,680 --> 01:15:17,680
Speaker 1: the Lions, and you know that was kind of the

1415
01:15:17,680 --> 01:15:20,040
Speaker 1: spot to be on the Bears. And you know, now

1416
01:15:20,080 --> 01:15:22,439
Speaker 1: everybody's like, oh, well, you know, Josh Dabs and this

1417
01:15:22,600 --> 01:15:24,280
Speaker 1: Viking tea, they're due for a let down. I feel

1418
01:15:24,280 --> 01:15:26,599
Speaker 1: like I feel like people just keep sleeping on the Vikings.

1419
01:15:26,640 --> 01:15:28,559
Speaker 1: I think I saw ninety let's see what was it.

1420
01:15:28,800 --> 01:15:30,640
Speaker 1: Look at one point there was like ninety percent of

1421
01:15:30,680 --> 01:15:33,400
Speaker 1: the bets and money on the Bears. Yeah, eighty nine

1422
01:15:33,439 --> 01:15:36,160
Speaker 1: percent of the bets ninety two percent of the money

1423
01:15:37,280 --> 01:15:39,920
Speaker 1: on the Chicago Bears. That makes me feel really good

1424
01:15:39,960 --> 01:15:43,000
Speaker 1: about the Minnesota Vikings. So yeah, let's go in Minnesota,

1425
01:15:43,040 --> 01:15:46,280
Speaker 1: because I think people have been wrong about about Minnesota.

1426
01:15:46,280 --> 01:15:48,280
Speaker 1: Oh year, So we'll go to Minnesota. See if we

1427
01:15:48,280 --> 01:15:51,400
Speaker 1: can see if we can get through Thanksgiving. That would

1428
01:15:51,400 --> 01:15:54,720
Speaker 1: be I think this second or third time, we've at

1429
01:15:54,800 --> 01:15:57,439
Speaker 1: least one of us have made it past Thanksgiving. So uh,

1430
01:15:58,560 --> 01:16:02,559
Speaker 1: let's do it. And Happy Thanksgiving to you. Enjoy your

1431
01:16:03,240 --> 01:16:08,040
Speaker 1: enjoy your duck on on Thursday afternoon, and Happy Thanksgiving

1432
01:16:08,040 --> 01:16:12,720
Speaker 1: to everybody listening. We appreciate you and hope you have

1433
01:16:12,960 --> 01:16:16,479
Speaker 1: a enjoyable holiday. I hope you have a profitable one.

1434
01:16:16,520 --> 01:16:20,200
Speaker 1: If you end up tailing any of the picks, let's

1435
01:16:20,240 --> 01:16:23,280
Speaker 1: keep it rolling, yes sir. And just a reminder, you

1436
01:16:23,320 --> 01:16:27,640
Speaker 1: can hear Stuck talking college football big bets on campus

1437
01:16:27,840 --> 01:16:31,479
Speaker 1: already out so you can have it for Thanksgiving. Stuck

1438
01:16:31,560 --> 01:16:34,200
Speaker 1: is on X at Stucky two. I'm at Chris Raybon.

1439
01:16:34,560 --> 01:16:36,519
Speaker 1: We're at those same handles on the free award winning

1440
01:16:36,640 --> 01:16:40,920
Speaker 1: Action Network app. Happy Thanksgiving, Let's get this money. Let's

1441
01:16:40,920 --> 01:16:41,960
Speaker 1: give this money as well.

1442
01:16:42,640 --> 01:16:54,280
Speaker 2: Pete Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you

1443
01:16:54,479 --> 01:16:56,960
Speaker 2: or someone you care about has a gambling problem, help

1444
01:16:57,040 --> 01:16:59,479
Speaker 2: is available twenty four to seven at one eight hundred

1445
01:16:59,520 --> 01:16:59,960
Speaker 2: Gambler