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Speaker 1: The Action Network Podcast.

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Speaker 2: If you are even remotely a savage, you'll run these

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Speaker 2: people over for a second.

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Speaker 1: Welcome into the Action Network Podcast, presented by fan Duel

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Speaker 1: Brendan Glasheen, joined by Seanzarello Billy Ward, breaking down UFC

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Speaker 1: to eighty five, Yes, your UFC betting preview to eighty

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Speaker 1: five This weekend at the Tmobile Arena in Las Vegas,

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Speaker 1: we'll look at our favorite underdogs, props, and more best

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Speaker 1: bets to rap. As always, we begin though with the

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Speaker 1: main event featuring John Jones. He's back and taking on

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Speaker 1: Cyril Gain Gain the dog, Jones the favorite a three

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Speaker 1: year app since for Jones, Folks are questioning if he's

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Speaker 1: ready for this moment, if you can get right back

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Speaker 1: in the ring, first time back in the cage. I'm

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Speaker 1: really curious not only Zorilla and Billy, but of course

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Speaker 1: your pick on the fight and how you want to

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Speaker 1: bet it, but also just the media day comments. He's

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Speaker 1: addressing his cardio. No longer a lightweight, he's a heavyweight.

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Speaker 1: Just when you digest all of that info, Sean, how

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Speaker 1: do you compartmentalize that with trying to make a betting

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Speaker 1: pick on it.

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Speaker 3: I'm going with the Frenchman.

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Speaker 4: You know, we see very often with these fighters coming

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Speaker 4: back who aren't active from lengthy layoffs. They just sort

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Speaker 4: of have that cage corrosion, not only at the beginning

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Speaker 4: of the fight, but there's that timing aspect that's off

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Speaker 4: the ability when they take shots. You know, they haven't

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Speaker 4: been hit hard in the gym that hard in a

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Speaker 4: long time. And also Jones moving up to heavyweight here

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Speaker 4: never faced this direct level of power, never faced somebody

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Speaker 4: directly of this size or weight in the op to

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Speaker 4: gone before. Not sure what he's going to look like

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Speaker 4: athletically physically coming back from a three year layoff, dealing

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Speaker 4: with injuries before adding forty pounds to his frame.

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Speaker 3: Always had phenomenal cardio.

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Speaker 4: I don't think that cardio is necessarily going to go away,

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Speaker 4: but his speed, his power. Going up against somebody on

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Speaker 4: the feet who is a better technician, a better technical striker,

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Speaker 4: he may be at a complete disadvantage on the feet,

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Speaker 4: not only in terms of the technique, but also speed

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Speaker 4: and power. Does have a three inchreach advantage. Gon kicks

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Speaker 4: really well, going to be able to keep it at range,

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Speaker 4: control the distance on the feet. Jones wants to win

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Speaker 4: this fight. I think he needs to grapple. He never

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Speaker 4: carried much power light heavyweight. That's not going to translate

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Speaker 4: particularly well to heavyweight either. Getting a standing ko here

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Speaker 4: over Cyril Goan is probably a pretty low percentage. I

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Speaker 4: think he needs to take the fight to the ground.

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Speaker 4: If you like to bet John Jones in this fight,

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Speaker 4: I think his submission props a pretty solid stab plus

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Speaker 4: seven hundred out there. I would make that number closer

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Speaker 4: to five to one. I think he has the grappling

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Speaker 4: upside here. I'm just not sure how consistently he's gonna

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Speaker 4: be able to get the takedowns because big Cage and

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Speaker 4: Gone moves really well, very tough to angle off. I

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Speaker 4: know Francis and Ghana took Serro Gone down a couple

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Speaker 4: of times. Francis and Ghanho is the strongest person to

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Speaker 4: ever enter the UFC octagon. Freak athlete Gon also training

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Speaker 4: counter wrestling for this matchup, was training for a striker

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Speaker 4: in that in Ghanu matchup, so some different things to

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Speaker 4: the aspect of the fight. Jones does have that grappling advantage,

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Speaker 4: but in terms of minute winning over the course of

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Speaker 4: twenty five minutes, In terms of finishing upside on the feet.

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Speaker 4: I do like cerro Goan would bet him down to

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Speaker 4: plus one twenty five pre fight.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, Billy, the comments on media day, Jones was saying

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Speaker 1: how he feels great about his endurance and he's a

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Speaker 1: stronger version of himself and he might not be as

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Speaker 1: lean as he once was. So with all that in mind,

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Speaker 1: does that make you eye on the side of the

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Speaker 1: soilla where you want to go to the other side?

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Speaker 5: I mean, first off, try to not listen to anything

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Speaker 5: a fighter says. It's kind of like every running back

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Speaker 5: in August is in the best shape of their life,

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Speaker 5: even though they're coming torn acls, and like you have

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Speaker 5: to say that, right, Like, no one's gonna get up

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Speaker 5: there and be like, hmm, I'm feeling okay, you know

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Speaker 5: I've been better.

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Speaker 6: You can't say that. So, like, this is a good point.

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Speaker 6: Don't don't put too much stock in that.

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Speaker 5: I think if you're handicapping by listening to things they say,

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Speaker 5: it's gonna steer you wrong far more often than it's

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Speaker 5: gonna steer you to anything useful.

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Speaker 6: With that said, I'm kind of wish on it.

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Speaker 1: No, Billy, I'm just the messenger. Okay, that's all I'm

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Speaker 1: doing here.

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Speaker 6: I'm not picking on you, Brennan. I'm just saying there.

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Speaker 1: I will absolutely be that person if that's what this requires.

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Speaker 5: But yeah, you know, I mostly agree with Sean's point.

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Speaker 5: The real story of this one is how much line

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Speaker 5: movement we've seen when the fight was announced. Jones is

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Speaker 5: a pretty sizable underdog. Loved him at that price, right,

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Speaker 5: if he's in his prime, if he's you know, anywhere

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Speaker 5: close to what he was and can carry that over

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Speaker 5: to heavyweight. You know, the grappling advantage in the overall

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Speaker 5: skill set is just much better than zerio guns. But

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Speaker 5: that switched so far in the other direction that if

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Speaker 5: I was picking a money line side one hundred percent

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Speaker 5: with Sean, I think, you know, getting plus money the

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Speaker 5: established heavyweight, the younger guy, the more active fighter, just

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Speaker 5: with all those questions is probably the sharper side. But

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Speaker 5: what I'm really looking at, and full admission, I also

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Speaker 5: stole this one from Sean when we were talking about it,

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Speaker 5: but this fight to end inside the distance. It's minus

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Speaker 5: one twelve at FanDuel, which is just an absurdly good

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Speaker 5: price for.

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Speaker 6: Any heavyweight fight. Right.

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Speaker 5: But as Sean pointed out, God should have all the

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Speaker 5: stand up advantage. Jones doesn't have huge power even as

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Speaker 5: a light heavyweight. His knockdown rate is actually lower than

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Speaker 5: the UFC average, and that's including all weight classes men

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Speaker 5: and women. So not a big power guy. But you know,

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Speaker 5: we saw Sarah Gahan get taken down by Francis Naganu,

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Speaker 5: who learned how to wrestle backstage that night, like if

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Speaker 5: Jones can wrestle at all, here huge advantage on the ground,

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Speaker 5: So it's pretty binary. Whichever arena this fight takes place in,

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Speaker 5: one guy is a huge advantage. And then there's the

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Speaker 5: cardio issues. I know he's trains well, has good cardio historically,

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Speaker 5: but carrying forty fifty extra pounds that's gonna wear on

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Speaker 5: you over five rounds. So with all those factors, I'd

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Speaker 5: take this to minus one thirty mins. I think earlier

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Speaker 5: in the week you could even get plus money and

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Speaker 5: inside of the distance, but those seem to be gone now.

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Speaker 4: I just want to be clear, I didn't place that bad.

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Speaker 4: I am on the Gone side. I feel like he

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Speaker 4: has more decision equity, which is why just ended up

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Speaker 4: playing gone and not the fight to end inside the distance.

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Speaker 4: But for reference heavyweight fights, and inside the distance about

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Speaker 4: seventy five percent of the time, and you're basically getting

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Speaker 4: a pick them price. So based on math, based on

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Speaker 4: mathematical averages. I know both these guys are particularly durable,

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Speaker 4: but that's still a twenty five percent differential relative to

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Speaker 4: the average heavyweight.

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Speaker 5: Fight right jones ability too, You know this is not

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Speaker 5: It's not like John Jones hasn't put people away, slice

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Speaker 5: guys up with elbows gone, and knock anyone out. It's

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Speaker 5: not like, you know, these lower level heavyweights are just

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Speaker 5: going to lean on each other. These are dynamic, active

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Speaker 5: strikers and grapplers.

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Speaker 1: So gon Gone and Jones at ten o'clock eastern Saturday

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Speaker 1: in Vegas T Mobile Arena pay per view fight the

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Speaker 1: co main women's flyweight title belt. We've gone Schevchenko and Grosso.

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Speaker 1: That's the other fight we want to discuss here. We

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Speaker 1: also have our fight of the night coming out that

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Speaker 1: the guys want to get to. When we look at

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Speaker 1: this particular matchup Zurillo, how when when you break it down,

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Speaker 1: how do you assess maybe finding an angle on Grosso,

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Speaker 1: I know, in the plus five hundred plus five fifty

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Speaker 1: range on the money line, or is there an angle

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Speaker 1: on Chifchenko where you can get as a sizable favorite,

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Speaker 1: you can play something where you don't have to lay

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Speaker 1: so much juice.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm going with the total. You know, we just

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Speaker 3: talked about the total.

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Speaker 4: Wrapped up talking about the total in the main event,

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Speaker 4: said seventy five percent finish rate at heavyweight, the line

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Speaker 4: around fifty percent. Well, this line for this woman's flyweight bout,

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Speaker 4: you're getting plus money around plus one forty on the

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Speaker 4: fight to go to decision. Woman's flyweight spouts go to

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Speaker 4: a decision at a sixty percent clip, So you're getting

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Speaker 4: plus money on something that usually hits at a sixty

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Speaker 4: percent rate. Now, Valentine and Chefchenko obviously an incredible fighter,

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Speaker 4: not a super potent finisher, but very dangerous, and I

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Speaker 4: think the biggest threat she has to finishing this fight

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Speaker 4: is on the ground. She has a significant grappling advantage.

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Speaker 4: She's not some massive one punch power on the feet.

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Speaker 4: She has a head kick knockout on a record, but

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Speaker 4: more often than not it is a punch that wobbles

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Speaker 4: an opponent and then follow up shots. And she's more

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Speaker 4: of a counter striker than a proactive pressure fighter. So

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Speaker 4: she's going to rely on her opponents to come forward

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Speaker 4: and create the action, which more often than not leads

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Speaker 4: to relatively low volume kickboxing fights. So as Valentina pursues

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Speaker 4: the takedown aggressively pursues the finish on the mat, I'm

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Speaker 4: expecting a relatively competitive kickboxing match when they're on the feed.

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Speaker 4: I think Valentina certainly gets the better of it, but

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Speaker 4: I think Grosso can be competitive. And Grosso has very

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Speaker 4: much leveled up her defensive Brazilian jiu jitsu over time

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Speaker 4: as well, and she's able to stay safe on the match.

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Speaker 4: She's not a fighter like Jess Gondraj who is going

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Speaker 4: to aggressively over exert herself and put herself in danger

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Speaker 4: in order to get back to her feet. I think

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Speaker 4: Grosso knows how to stay safe right out the round

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Speaker 4: and then wait until the next round and get back

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Speaker 4: in the fight. So I do like the overs. The

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Speaker 4: over three and a half rounds is actually at minus

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Speaker 4: one oh five. That would probably be my preferred bet,

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Speaker 4: just because we've seen in these title fights when somebody's

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Speaker 4: down in the later rounds, they tend to bite on

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Speaker 4: the mouthpiece and go a little bit crazy. In that

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Speaker 4: fifth round so the over three and a half rounds

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Speaker 4: and to pick them price, then also the fight to

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Speaker 4: reach a decision and shift Chenko by decision at two

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Speaker 4: to one, All of those sort of correlate. I think

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Speaker 4: the over three and a half my favorite bet though.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, Billy no quotes here for this particular fight, don't worry,

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Speaker 1: but particularly when I could help myself. But when you

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Speaker 1: read up on this and kind of looking back at

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Speaker 1: some clips, it seems Grosso's style kind of plays into

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Speaker 1: what Chivchenko likes to do. So are you like Zarillo

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Speaker 1: or Totals or somewhere you'd like to go? Is there

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Speaker 1: somewhere else you want to look?

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Speaker 6: Absolutely?

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Speaker 5: You know, he really hit most of the points I

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Speaker 5: wanted to get to. The one thing I was actually

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Speaker 5: on Tyler, say, against Chevchenko in her last fight from

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Speaker 5: a stylistic standpoint, she was like plus six hundred or

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Speaker 5: something and lost.

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Speaker 6: By a split decision.

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Speaker 5: So I think there's definitely some holes in Shevchenko that

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Speaker 5: we can poke. But man, Grosso is just a really

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Speaker 5: bad style to exploit that, you know. Sean pointed out

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Speaker 5: the counter striking Grosso throws like an absurd amount of

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Speaker 5: strikes per round. She's the highest on the card in

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Speaker 5: terms of volume, which plays right into Shevchenko's hands. But

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Speaker 5: to Shawn's other point, one of my favorite bets they

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Speaker 5: have at Fandel they have alternate round betting where you

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Speaker 5: get a couple different rounds and or decision all for

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Speaker 5: one price. Chevchenko in rounds four, rounds five, or by

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Speaker 5: decision is plus one twenty. That's my favorite way of

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Speaker 5: playing it. But really all the angles that Sean pointed

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Speaker 5: out with, you know, attritional finishes, down the stretch, Grosso's

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Speaker 5: defensive jiu jitsu, all that stuff, I just like getting

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Speaker 5: all three of those rolled into one. So if she

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Speaker 5: gets a late stoppage, cool at Cashes goes to a decision,

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Speaker 5: Cool at Cash is you know, just just an awesome

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Speaker 5: offering by Fandle to have those splits when we can

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Speaker 5: take advantage of that in fights that we see this way, let's.

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Speaker 1: Go to our favorite underdog plays for the weekend. We

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Speaker 1: always like looking on the card and finding some plus

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Speaker 1: money instead of having to lay some juice, so Zarella,

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Speaker 1: when you look up and down for this for this

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Speaker 1: particular weekend, UFC to eighty five, what do you like?

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Speaker 4: Jessica Piney plus two forty five, much bigger fighter here,

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Speaker 4: four inches taller, six inch reach advantage against Tabitha Ricci.

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Speaker 4: Ricci does have the grappling advantage. I think she's fought

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Speaker 4: fighters in there in her past, though, who're willing to

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Speaker 4: accept position and lay on their back. I don't think

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Speaker 4: Jess Piney is going to give her all of that

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Speaker 4: top control for free. If she gets taken down, she

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Speaker 4: will proactively look to get back to her feet. I

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Speaker 4: think she is going to be extremely competitive in the

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Speaker 4: striking purely because of the link advantage. If not have

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Speaker 4: the advantage there, this fight should be much closer to

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Speaker 4: a pick them, assuming they're going to be striking, and

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Speaker 4: I actually do think they're going to be striking more

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Speaker 4: than they're going to be grappling, So I understand why

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Speaker 4: Ricci's favored. She has more finishing upside, she has the

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Speaker 4: grappling upside, but I don't think she's going to have

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Speaker 4: an advantage in the grappling as much as this line suggests.

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Speaker 4: I like Penny down here two about plus two to

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Speaker 4: thirty five, and I also like her decision line down

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Speaker 4: to about four to one. I think she's a solid

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Speaker 4: value in both markets and definitely expect this fight to

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Speaker 4: pay out more competitively than that line suggests.

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Speaker 3: Maybe she loses a decision, but I think she'ld be

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Speaker 3: more competitive.

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Speaker 1: All right, Billy, but you got underdog play.

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Speaker 5: Real quick on Zerrilla's point. Fight very very likely to

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Speaker 5: go to a decision. That's one of those plus two

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Speaker 5: forty five. Like you have a very good chance of

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Speaker 5: getting saved by some bad judging even if she actually

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Speaker 5: loses the fight.

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Speaker 4: So yeah, it's like minus two seventy to go to decision.

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Speaker 4: And I mean, considering it's going to a decision, it

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Speaker 4: should be competitive.

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Speaker 3: Why is one plus two forty five?

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Speaker 5: Yeah, but uh, I'm looking at it's actually the opening

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Speaker 5: card of about Esteban Ribovich, and I'm probably butchering that

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Speaker 5: name two UFC debuwers. I don't know a ton about

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Speaker 5: either guy, but Ribovich is eleven to zero, big knockout

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Speaker 5: on the Contender series. He's fighting Loike Lowick Radjabov, who

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Speaker 5: it went too or four to four on one in

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Speaker 5: the PFL, you know, kind of mixed results in a

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Speaker 5: lesser league. Again, don't know a ton about these guys,

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Speaker 5: but Ribavich is plus two ten or so it's another one.

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Speaker 5: I think this should be a lot closer than that.

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Speaker 5: I don't think anyone in the markets really has that

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Speaker 5: strong of a read. So if I can get plus

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Speaker 5: two ten on someone that no one knows anything about

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Speaker 5: and his opponent, I'm gonna take it.

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Speaker 1: Do you normally do that when it's just two fighters

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Speaker 1: that you're not all familiar with, or it's someone that's

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Speaker 1: new to the scene.

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Speaker 5: It's pretty rare that I know this little about two

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Speaker 5: fighters on a pay per view card.

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Speaker 6: You know, you just don't see those guys get put

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Speaker 6: on these events.

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Speaker 5: Usually I'll have a read on one guy or the other.

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Speaker 5: We've got Contender series tape on one guy and he

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Speaker 5: looked pretty good, which it plus two ten is more

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Speaker 5: than enough justification for me.

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Speaker 6: So not always.

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Speaker 5: You know, you try to read the records and see

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Speaker 5: what's going on. But neither of them have fought really

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Speaker 5: high level competition, which gives us much insight into what

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Speaker 5: they're doing.

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Speaker 1: All right, Ribovich has six KOs five submissions, But of

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Speaker 1: course this is a pay per view bigger stage should

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Speaker 1: be good. But yeah, that's fair, I mean the number, Yeah,

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Speaker 1: I hear what you're saying. Let's go to the fighter

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Speaker 1: what's that.

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Speaker 6: That we're betting the number, not the fighter on this

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Speaker 6: right exactly. Yep.

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Speaker 1: That's important to note because sometimes it's hard to not

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Speaker 1: separate those two things when it comes to really anything

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Speaker 1: when it comes to sports betting. Let's go to the

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Speaker 1: fight of the night, uh Matouche Gamra and Jalen Turner.

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Speaker 1: How do you want to play this one? Sorillo?

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Speaker 4: Yeah, this is a really good fight. Turner is an

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Speaker 4: extremely dangerous lightweight. He's massive for the division six foot

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Speaker 4: three four just taller seven entre. Each advantage here typically

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Speaker 4: has length size advantage over his opponents, very dangerous, guillotine,

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Speaker 4: dangerous grappler with his very long limbs and on the

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Speaker 4: feet that length poses problems for a lot of his opponents.

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Speaker 4: He's also very powerful for the division because I don't

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Speaker 4: know how he really makes the weight, but he's able to.

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Speaker 4: That said, I think this is a serious step up

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Speaker 4: in competition for him. Here he's going from facing the

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Speaker 4: likes of Brock Weavers and brad Rad Ordeal was a

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Speaker 4: good win. He beat him quickly, though we have not

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Speaker 4: seen Turner consistently extended fights. Seeing how his cardio plays

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Speaker 4: out in the third round He's gotten stuck on his

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Speaker 4: back in the past when you're able to wrestle him,

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Speaker 4: and that's where I think Gamron has the real advantage here.

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Speaker 4: He is an excellent chain wrestler. He attempts one takedown

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Speaker 4: per minute in the UFC, absolutely relentless. Is coming in

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Speaker 4: on short notice, but he has sensational fiberron cardio. I

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Speaker 4: don't think his cardio is going to be an advantage

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Speaker 4: here or be at a be an issue here, and

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Speaker 4: Turner has questionable cardio, so I expect Gamrot to really

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Speaker 4: take over down the stretch. If Turner cannot snatch up

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Speaker 4: a guillotine, He's going to get stuck on his back

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Speaker 4: for long stretches if he can't keep it on the feet.

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Speaker 4: I don't really see him finishing Gamrod. I think Gamrod

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Speaker 4: eventually drowns him with cardio. However, I don't see a

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Speaker 4: standing knockout as a very high percentage of Gamrot's finish probability.

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Speaker 4: And though he has finished opponents on the ground via

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Speaker 4: TKO had a beautiful knee to Carlos Diego Ferrera's ribs

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Speaker 4: that got a TKO on the mat. He's more of

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Speaker 4: a submission guy and a decision guy. I like his submission,

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Speaker 4: decision prop submission or decision prop at minus one ten

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Speaker 4: that's where I vetted up to. It's currently minus one

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Speaker 4: oh five at FanDuel projected that closer to minus one twenty.

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Speaker 4: So we're gonna take his submission equity, his decision equity,

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Speaker 4: the wrestling upside all correlated together at that minus one

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Speaker 4: oh five number on Gamrot, big discount relative to his

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Speaker 4: money line price.

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Speaker 1: So, Billy, I feel like you got a Zarillo kind

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Speaker 1: of mapped out. You either take a Gamrot cardio side

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Speaker 1: or Turner. Can Turner put grappling have the grappling advantage?

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Speaker 6: Yeah?

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Speaker 5: I hear a lot of what Zurilla is saying and

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Speaker 5: agree with most of it in principle, but he kind

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Speaker 5: of goes over the important part of why this short

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Speaker 5: notice fight matters. Gamarrat took this one in about two weeks.

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Speaker 5: It's not as cardio. I am not at all worried

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Speaker 5: about his cardio. He'll probably have better cardio than Turner,

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Speaker 5: but what he won't have is an extended period of

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Speaker 5: time to prepare for a six foot three lefty. That's

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Speaker 5: not something that Gamrot's face. There's just not a ton

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Speaker 5: of those. You know, Turner is the tallest lightweight on

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Speaker 5: the UFC roster, also left handed, very awkward.

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Speaker 6: You know.

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Speaker 5: He uses his length on the ground to get chokes

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Speaker 5: and arm attacks and stuff and positions you just wouldn't

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Speaker 5: expect them to be possible because he's so much taller.

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Speaker 5: You know, if anyone out there's done any kind of grappling,

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Speaker 5: you get those tall, long guys, you think you're safe,

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Speaker 5: but all of a sudden they pull your arm behind

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Speaker 5: your back because they've got the reach edge all of that.

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Speaker 5: If Gamrat had a full fight, camp would have no doubts.

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Speaker 5: He'd be able to account for all that. You know,

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Speaker 5: the game planet, they'd work it out. He's a much

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Speaker 5: better fighter here. But man, on two weeks, you can't

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Speaker 5: just roll in and fight a guy like that. You've

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Speaker 5: never fought anyone like this before. There aren't guys like

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Speaker 5: this out there. And this is another one where the

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Speaker 5: story of the fight is kind of this line.

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Speaker 6: Movement.

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Speaker 5: Turner opened around plus one forty across the industry. Get

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Speaker 5: him as high as plus one eighty five right now.

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Speaker 5: If that movement keeps continuing, we might even see plus

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Speaker 5: two hundred by fight night. I'm comfortable with the one

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Speaker 5: eighty range that we're seeing now. This is one if

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Speaker 5: we can get a better line, I'm waiting all the

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Speaker 5: way till Saturday night and to try to pull plus

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Speaker 5: two hundred.

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Speaker 6: Get a little greedy on this one.

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Speaker 1: All right, very good. As we normally do, we do

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Speaker 1: dedicate a section of the podcast to top props. But

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Speaker 1: as you probably have heard already and in previous episode,

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Speaker 1: Sean and Billy, will you know, add those in, spray

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Speaker 1: some or sprinkle in some notes on decision or any

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Speaker 1: other you know, first first minute, finish, time of finish,

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Speaker 1: go to the distance, et cetera. So they work those

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Speaker 1: in throughout the show. But if there's one yet you

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Speaker 1: like the most, Seanzilla, what would it be?

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Speaker 4: Trevin Jones by Knockout a plus q sixty over Cody Garbrandt.

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Speaker 4: If you search around, there's his highest plus three twenty

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Speaker 4: five out there. If you search around, there's as low

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Speaker 4: as plus one eighty out there at some very sharp books.

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Speaker 4: I think the sharp money is on Jones by Knockout.

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Speaker 6: Here.

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Speaker 4: Certain fighters get to a stage in their careers where

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Speaker 4: it's tragic because you could see that they still have

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Speaker 4: their skills, their speed, their power, their athleticism, but the

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Speaker 4: chin is gone.

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Speaker 3: And I'm not saying.

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Speaker 4: Osp who lost two weeks ago still had that skill set,

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Speaker 4: because it was very obvious he was shot. But these

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Speaker 4: guys do get to a stage in their career where

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Speaker 4: going into the fight, I'm almost cringing because I know

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Speaker 4: the moment they get hit, they're gonna wabble. And Cody

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Speaker 4: has gotten to that stage of his career very sadly,

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Speaker 4: I'm not sure he can take one clean, hard punch

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Speaker 4: and stay standing at this point he got knocked out

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Speaker 4: by a flyweight, or sorry, he got knocked out by

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Speaker 4: a flyweight. Coming back up here to one thirty five,

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Speaker 4: I'm not too confident, especially going against the guy who

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Speaker 4: gets hit, who hits hard in Trevin Jones, that he's

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Speaker 4: gonna be able to take any The problem is both

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Speaker 4: of these guys like to engage in staring contests. They're

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Speaker 4: very low volume strikers who stare at each other. So

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Speaker 4: I'm not as inclined to bet the fight tend inside

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Speaker 4: the distance because they made to stare at each other

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Speaker 4: for fifteen minutes. But I do think if it goes

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Speaker 4: to a decision, Garbrandt is more likely to win because

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Speaker 4: he is the wrestling advantage, can get control, time, take

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Speaker 4: things down, fight a little bit smarter. He's never fought

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Speaker 4: that way in his career or very rarely has fought

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Speaker 4: that wayne his career. There may not be many of them,

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Speaker 4: but there should be a few very explosive, high variance

434
00:20:31,960 --> 00:20:34,600
Speaker 4: exchanges in this fight, and I think they're fifty to

435
00:20:34,640 --> 00:20:36,880
Speaker 4: fifty to see who falls in that. So Jones at

436
00:20:37,240 --> 00:20:40,240
Speaker 4: plus two sixty by Ko when garbrand is closer to

437
00:20:40,240 --> 00:20:44,800
Speaker 4: I believe plus one fifteen clear value side ins fight Billy.

438
00:20:44,520 --> 00:20:46,960
Speaker 6: Tough prop Yeah, one hundred percent.

439
00:20:47,040 --> 00:20:49,280
Speaker 5: With Sean it is said, you know, Cody's a guy

440
00:20:49,320 --> 00:20:50,920
Speaker 5: who got to the UFC I think is like fifth

441
00:20:51,000 --> 00:20:53,000
Speaker 5: pro fight or something, and just probably got thrown in

442
00:20:53,040 --> 00:20:55,280
Speaker 5: there a little too early because they have no chin

443
00:20:55,400 --> 00:20:56,240
Speaker 5: left at thirty one.

444
00:20:56,560 --> 00:20:57,080
Speaker 6: It's tough.

445
00:20:57,119 --> 00:21:00,359
Speaker 5: But anyway, I'm looking at the ian Gary mitch over

446
00:21:00,480 --> 00:21:02,840
Speaker 5: his Keenan Song fight. That one's plus two thirty to

447
00:21:02,920 --> 00:21:04,919
Speaker 5: go to a decision, and I think there's just a

448
00:21:04,920 --> 00:21:08,080
Speaker 5: fundamental little bit of a misunderstanding here because Gary is

449
00:21:08,119 --> 00:21:10,720
Speaker 5: a huge favorite minus seven hundred minus eight hundred range.

450
00:21:11,040 --> 00:21:13,360
Speaker 5: But that doesn't mean, he's necessarily just.

451
00:21:13,320 --> 00:21:14,719
Speaker 6: Gonna walk through a guy and finish him.

452
00:21:15,400 --> 00:21:17,280
Speaker 5: He's been kind of disappointing with some of these fights

453
00:21:17,280 --> 00:21:18,800
Speaker 5: where he's came in as a huge favorite and they

454
00:21:18,840 --> 00:21:21,440
Speaker 5: haven't been all that exciting. He's definitely fighting to win,

455
00:21:21,520 --> 00:21:23,479
Speaker 5: not put on a show. Both of his last two

456
00:21:23,520 --> 00:21:26,040
Speaker 5: wins were by decision over Darien Weeks and Gabe Green.

457
00:21:26,520 --> 00:21:28,600
Speaker 5: Not exactly stand out to the division or anyone we

458
00:21:28,640 --> 00:21:31,000
Speaker 5: should be scared of. Gary's gonna come out here. He's

459
00:21:31,000 --> 00:21:33,239
Speaker 5: gonna win minutes. You know, he's gonna be opportunistic. If

460
00:21:33,240 --> 00:21:35,880
Speaker 5: there's an opportunity to take it, he will. But he's

461
00:21:35,880 --> 00:21:39,560
Speaker 5: not a guy who pushes for pushes for the finish

462
00:21:39,640 --> 00:21:41,800
Speaker 5: all that hard. He likes to play it safe, likes

463
00:21:41,800 --> 00:21:44,280
Speaker 5: to make sure he gets the w So plus two

464
00:21:44,359 --> 00:21:46,840
Speaker 5: thirty pretty good line on that. I'm just gonna sprinkle.

465
00:21:46,880 --> 00:21:48,520
Speaker 5: This isn't a huge you know, don't lay a bunch

466
00:21:48,560 --> 00:21:50,160
Speaker 5: of money on it. But that's a pretty good line

467
00:21:50,160 --> 00:21:51,840
Speaker 5: for a guy who doesn't really hunt for finishers that

468
00:21:51,880 --> 00:21:53,640
Speaker 5: aggressively against high level competition.

469
00:21:54,880 --> 00:21:58,159
Speaker 1: Okay, before we go, best bets for well, these are

470
00:21:58,200 --> 00:22:00,640
Speaker 1: all best bets, but your best bet that you want

471
00:22:00,680 --> 00:22:03,200
Speaker 1: to make your best bet for UFC two eighty five.

472
00:22:03,480 --> 00:22:06,280
Speaker 1: I know Zerillo, like you know Zerolo, I see you

473
00:22:06,280 --> 00:22:09,320
Speaker 1: smirk like that. I'm already thinking about baseball, and stay

474
00:22:09,320 --> 00:22:13,400
Speaker 1: tuned for that later on because it's like we'll get

475
00:22:13,400 --> 00:22:15,440
Speaker 1: there when we get their best bet for UFC two

476
00:22:15,480 --> 00:22:15,960
Speaker 1: eighty five.

477
00:22:16,320 --> 00:22:18,280
Speaker 4: Now, you know, it's something like sometimes I do have

478
00:22:18,320 --> 00:22:19,960
Speaker 4: a bet I feel a little bit better about. I'd

479
00:22:20,040 --> 00:22:21,920
Speaker 4: say this week my best bet I do feel a

480
00:22:21,960 --> 00:22:23,400
Speaker 4: little bit better about than the rest of the bet.

481
00:22:23,480 --> 00:22:25,359
Speaker 3: Some weeks I feel kind of the same about everything,

482
00:22:25,400 --> 00:22:26,560
Speaker 3: and we want to he look get the same.

483
00:22:27,040 --> 00:22:29,520
Speaker 4: But my best bet this week I feel a little

484
00:22:29,520 --> 00:22:33,239
Speaker 4: bit better about drig is duplus inside the distance uh

485
00:22:33,600 --> 00:22:36,560
Speaker 4: minus one thirty five at FanDuel. Again, that's a sharp line.

486
00:22:36,640 --> 00:22:38,919
Speaker 4: If you shop around, you could find as low as

487
00:22:38,960 --> 00:22:40,879
Speaker 4: minus one ten out there, So definitely look for the

488
00:22:40,880 --> 00:22:43,639
Speaker 4: best available number on this because I projected this at

489
00:22:43,640 --> 00:22:44,600
Speaker 4: minus one thirty five.

490
00:22:44,640 --> 00:22:45,679
Speaker 3: That's about where i'd bet.

491
00:22:45,560 --> 00:22:45,840
Speaker 6: It up to.

492
00:22:45,920 --> 00:22:50,320
Speaker 4: Though Drake is ten years younger. I used to run

493
00:22:50,320 --> 00:22:52,800
Speaker 4: into trouble betting on fighters who were past their prime.

494
00:22:53,119 --> 00:22:55,399
Speaker 4: If you look into the data, when a fighter is

495
00:22:55,440 --> 00:22:58,360
Speaker 4: ten years younger than their opponent, in the UFC, they

496
00:22:58,440 --> 00:23:01,920
Speaker 4: win ten percent more often than the betting market suggests.

497
00:23:02,000 --> 00:23:05,200
Speaker 4: There's like a ten percent edge betting on fighters or

498
00:23:05,280 --> 00:23:08,680
Speaker 4: ten years younger than their opponents. Across the board. Certain

499
00:23:08,720 --> 00:23:11,240
Speaker 4: matchups may not matter this one, I think it does.

500
00:23:12,080 --> 00:23:16,560
Speaker 4: Both guys neither has particularly good cardio. Drake is much

501
00:23:16,600 --> 00:23:20,040
Speaker 4: more willing to walk through the fire as they both tire.

502
00:23:20,119 --> 00:23:22,680
Speaker 4: He breathes with his mouth open. Seems like he's completely

503
00:23:22,720 --> 00:23:25,919
Speaker 4: gassing out. He breed up. He beat up Brad Tavarrez

504
00:23:25,960 --> 00:23:28,200
Speaker 4: bad for three rounds. He should have finished that fight.

505
00:23:28,840 --> 00:23:33,080
Speaker 4: He's finished. I believe seventeen of his eighteen career wins.

506
00:23:33,840 --> 00:23:36,399
Speaker 4: The Taveras win was the only one he didn't finish,

507
00:23:36,480 --> 00:23:39,040
Speaker 4: and he beat him to a pulp for three rounds.

508
00:23:39,080 --> 00:23:41,520
Speaker 4: He also finished Darren Till, who's very difficult to finish

509
00:23:41,720 --> 00:23:43,560
Speaker 4: in his last fight. I know Till has been finished

510
00:23:43,560 --> 00:23:46,080
Speaker 4: in the past, but he's a tough guy too. Drake

511
00:23:46,160 --> 00:23:49,760
Speaker 4: has beat him up and submitted him once. Derek Brunson

512
00:23:49,800 --> 00:23:52,159
Speaker 4: gets tired. After that five or six minute mark, he

513
00:23:52,200 --> 00:23:55,280
Speaker 4: starts breathing really heavily. That pressure goes away. He starts

514
00:23:55,320 --> 00:23:57,760
Speaker 4: backing up due pless. He gonna put the pressure on.

515
00:23:58,200 --> 00:24:01,560
Speaker 4: I think he finishes brunts in round two or round three.

516
00:24:02,400 --> 00:24:05,200
Speaker 4: My favorite bet on this fight though, maybe do plus

517
00:24:05,400 --> 00:24:08,160
Speaker 4: after round one because there's a chance Brunson gets a takedown,

518
00:24:08,200 --> 00:24:11,639
Speaker 4: Brunston gets some top time, and douplus he moves closer

519
00:24:11,680 --> 00:24:13,720
Speaker 4: to a pick him or plus money after round one.

520
00:24:14,200 --> 00:24:18,040
Speaker 4: If Brunson wins the round, I would absolutely smash duplus

521
00:24:18,200 --> 00:24:20,879
Speaker 4: at that point. Brunson is going to gas at that

522
00:24:20,960 --> 00:24:23,120
Speaker 4: six or seven minute mark, and I think du plus

523
00:24:23,160 --> 00:24:25,240
Speaker 4: he's gonna put him away later, So do plus inside

524
00:24:25,240 --> 00:24:27,720
Speaker 4: the distance at minus one oh five. Wouldn't be surprised

525
00:24:27,760 --> 00:24:29,480
Speaker 4: if what happened in the first round, but I do

526
00:24:29,600 --> 00:24:32,320
Speaker 4: expect a later second or third round finish.

527
00:24:32,480 --> 00:24:34,119
Speaker 1: All right, jump on this. I think this is what

528
00:24:34,200 --> 00:24:36,400
Speaker 1: Zerrilla is getting at too. Before that line keeps moving,

529
00:24:37,200 --> 00:24:39,040
Speaker 1: Billy is are you in the same boat? Do you

530
00:24:39,040 --> 00:24:40,879
Speaker 1: have a best bet that you feel better about than

531
00:24:40,880 --> 00:24:42,520
Speaker 1: other bets or are you both the same?

532
00:24:43,080 --> 00:24:46,000
Speaker 5: I do, And there's also a age angle at play

533
00:24:46,040 --> 00:24:48,840
Speaker 5: in mine as well, so perfect Q up by Zarello.

534
00:24:49,400 --> 00:24:51,800
Speaker 5: I'm looking at Amanda hebis. I believe the best line

535
00:24:51,840 --> 00:24:54,119
Speaker 5: is now about minus one twenty and I'm gonna do

536
00:24:54,160 --> 00:24:56,200
Speaker 5: a little bit of mma math here, which I'm gonna

537
00:24:56,200 --> 00:24:58,359
Speaker 5: get dragged for. People don't like it. It's not a

538
00:24:58,359 --> 00:25:01,520
Speaker 5: great way to handicap generally, but hear me out. Amanda

539
00:25:01,560 --> 00:25:04,760
Speaker 5: Hebas and Vivian Oudajujo both one and two in their

540
00:25:04,800 --> 00:25:05,280
Speaker 5: last three.

541
00:25:05,359 --> 00:25:07,480
Speaker 6: They both have losses to Caitlyn Chukeg.

542
00:25:07,240 --> 00:25:10,840
Speaker 5: In Oudajujro just got dominated by cheu Keg into decision.

543
00:25:10,880 --> 00:25:12,919
Speaker 5: I think it was thirty twenty seven on two judges,

544
00:25:12,920 --> 00:25:13,760
Speaker 5: twenty nine to twenty eight.

545
00:25:13,760 --> 00:25:15,560
Speaker 6: In the other Hebus lost.

546
00:25:15,320 --> 00:25:17,800
Speaker 5: A very close split decision that I really thought she won,

547
00:25:18,320 --> 00:25:20,840
Speaker 5: hugely controversial on the UFC Twitter, you know, everyone was.

548
00:25:20,840 --> 00:25:21,639
Speaker 6: Up in arms about it.

549
00:25:22,480 --> 00:25:24,240
Speaker 5: That in and of itself is not enough for me

550
00:25:24,280 --> 00:25:26,560
Speaker 5: to say she necessarily beats out of Jujo. You know,

551
00:25:26,600 --> 00:25:28,320
Speaker 5: just because you do better against the common opponent, it

552
00:25:28,320 --> 00:25:31,000
Speaker 5: doesn't mean all that much. But Hebus is also seven

553
00:25:31,080 --> 00:25:34,400
Speaker 5: years younger Ouda Jujo's thirty six. You know, if we're

554
00:25:34,400 --> 00:25:36,600
Speaker 5: looking at how they did in that fight, Outahujro has

555
00:25:36,640 --> 00:25:39,320
Speaker 5: probably gotten worse since then. She's probably declined a little

556
00:25:39,320 --> 00:25:42,399
Speaker 5: bit just based on her age. Her age, Hebus is

557
00:25:42,440 --> 00:25:45,120
Speaker 5: only twenty nine, still getting better. One of the best

558
00:25:45,119 --> 00:25:47,480
Speaker 5: grapplers in the flyweight division. You know, I believe a

559
00:25:47,480 --> 00:25:50,360
Speaker 5: black belt in both judo and jiu jitsu, and she's

560
00:25:50,400 --> 00:25:53,000
Speaker 5: on the upswing, so I don't want to go much

561
00:25:53,040 --> 00:25:55,040
Speaker 5: beyond this minus one twenty just because we get to

562
00:25:55,040 --> 00:25:57,400
Speaker 5: the judges again, and hebus is small for the division,

563
00:25:57,640 --> 00:25:59,439
Speaker 5: so it looks like she's getting hit harder than she

564
00:25:59,520 --> 00:26:02,359
Speaker 5: probably is. But I take her down to minus one

565
00:26:02,400 --> 00:26:04,679
Speaker 5: thirty minus one thirty five range. But minus one twenty

566
00:26:04,680 --> 00:26:07,200
Speaker 5: feels like a very strong pick on her, just based

567
00:26:07,240 --> 00:26:09,959
Speaker 5: on the directions their careers are heading and how similar

568
00:26:09,960 --> 00:26:11,800
Speaker 5: they've performed against common opposition.

569
00:26:12,600 --> 00:26:16,159
Speaker 1: All right, gents, love it, good stuff, good breakdown, and

570
00:26:16,480 --> 00:26:18,000
Speaker 1: look forward to the weekend. They'll do it for the

571
00:26:18,119 --> 00:26:20,840
Speaker 1: UFC two eighty five betting preview here on the Action

572
00:26:20,920 --> 00:26:24,320
Speaker 1: Network podcast. We are presented by FanDuel. You can find

573
00:26:24,400 --> 00:26:27,560
Speaker 1: more from Sean and Billy over on the Action website.

574
00:26:27,600 --> 00:26:31,240
Speaker 1: In the award winning free to download Action Network app,

575
00:26:31,280 --> 00:26:33,679
Speaker 1: you can follow the guys and their picks. Best of

576
00:26:33,760 --> 00:26:36,320
Speaker 1: luck this weekend, everybody. We will see you next time.

577
00:26:36,600 --> 00:26:47,639
Speaker 1: On the Action Network podcast. Action Network reminds you please

578
00:26:47,680 --> 00:26:51,080
Speaker 1: gamble responsibly if you or someone you care about has

579
00:26:51,119 --> 00:26:54,200
Speaker 1: a gambling problem. Help is available twenty four to seven

580
00:26:54,400 --> 00:26:55,879
Speaker 1: at one eight hundred Gambler