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Speaker 1: The Action Network Podcast. I'm just about that action all.

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Speaker 2: All right, here we go.

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Speaker 1: Throwing spect we're sitting it to cash. We see most

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Speaker 1: gamblers when they go to gamble, they go to swin.

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Speaker 1: That's incredible, big bank, small banks. I like to make money.

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Speaker 2: All right, this is the ultimate combining and you want

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Speaker 2: to and we are underway.

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Speaker 1: What is up?

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Speaker 2: Everybody?

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Speaker 1: Welcome to the Action Network Podcast presented by bet MGM.

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Speaker 1: I'm your host, Chris Raybaun of The Action Network. Today

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Speaker 1: we've got our NFL player projection for the Championship round

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Speaker 1: of the NFL Playoffs, So we're going to run through

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Speaker 1: our top players at each skill position discussed. Players were

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Speaker 1: especially high and lo on and of course we'll throw

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Speaker 1: out some player props as well. Joining me the top

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Speaker 1: Fantasy Ryan, you're in the industry, the odds maker, Sean Kerner, Sean,

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Speaker 1: what's going on?

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Speaker 2: What's up? And then there were four Uh, this is

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Speaker 2: you know, just amazing weekend. You know it looks like,

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Speaker 2: you know, there's there was already props when I woke

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Speaker 2: up on Monday. I haven't had a chance to look

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Speaker 2: at him. But hoping, you know, through today I can

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Speaker 2: shove my projections based on you know what you're saying,

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Speaker 2: then start attacking some of these props.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, just don't listen to me about Devin's singletary.

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Speaker 1: Uh yeah, oh my god, second week in a row,

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Speaker 1: first out the Romeo Doves, then Singletary. I think caught

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Speaker 1: like three two passes on the opening drive.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, something bomb, like a literal bomb. Sometimes it's better

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Speaker 2: that way. It's the worst when it's like the last

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Speaker 2: play of the game. You know. Sometimes you prefer a quick,

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Speaker 2: painless death early on.

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Speaker 1: So yeah, oh yeah, no I don't. I'm used a

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Speaker 1: bit unders so it happened.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, but uh all.

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Speaker 1: Right, yeah we'll jump into uh a quarterback here, and

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Speaker 1: obviously we don't have a top five. But I mean,

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Speaker 1: unless you want to give me whoever your fifth quarterback

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Speaker 1: would be. If not, just give me your top four.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, so Lamar Jackson, Brock Purty, Patrick Mahomes, and Jared Goff.

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Speaker 2: I can't think of a backup that might get a snap,

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Speaker 2: So I only have four quarterbacks projected right now.

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Speaker 1: Well, I think it would be probably all right, who's

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Speaker 1: the most likely to get hurt? Probably Lamar because we

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Speaker 1: run so much. I guess, I guess it would be Huntly.

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Speaker 2: Right, yeah, yeah, or Malik Cunningham package we've been waiting

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Speaker 2: all years.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I think he's going to be a healthy scratch.

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Speaker 1: I think yeah, I think he was yeah right, I mean.

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Speaker 2: He shining the preseason. I was holding out hope to

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Speaker 2: see him in some sort of package on the Patriots

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Speaker 2: or Ravens, but it just never happened. Never happened.

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Speaker 1: Well, you know what's gonna happen. Bill Belichick will go

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Speaker 1: to Atlanta and then uh, Malika could come over there

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Speaker 1: and then be a healthy scratch every and Felipe Franks

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Speaker 1: be healthy scratches there. Yeah. I got the same order though.

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Speaker 1: So who are you high on? I mean, I guess

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Speaker 1: what do you want to talk about?

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Speaker 2: I guess let's talk about Lamar Jackson. He's both of

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Speaker 2: our QB ones. He's coming off just a historic game,

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Speaker 2: the first quarterback ever apparently to have two touchdowns passing,

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Speaker 2: two touchdowns rushing and one hundred plus rushing yards and

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Speaker 2: one hundred plus QB rating. So he's just playing at

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Speaker 2: a high level right now. You know, it is a

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Speaker 2: tougher matchup against the Chiefs, but he's playing at such

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Speaker 2: a high level. I would say he's matchup proof, and

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Speaker 2: I think this week we can finally say, you know,

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Speaker 2: he should be getting back his top target and Mark Andrews,

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Speaker 2: so that's going to only help him even more. So

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Speaker 2: he's the clear top quarterback this week.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I agree, I have him, you know, well above

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Speaker 1: the other three. I think, you know, the the only

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Speaker 1: other ones. I mean we could talk about in terms

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Speaker 1: of being high on. I still have pretty a little

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Speaker 1: bit ahead of my Homes. I know, Debo is kind

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Speaker 1: of iffy and pretty kind of if he last week.

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Speaker 1: Where are you on the on those two guys, you know,

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Speaker 1: Purty versus Mahomes.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I have Party like a full point ahead of him,

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Speaker 2: and my passing projection for him is a little bit low.

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Speaker 2: I have like, you know, two sixty seven, which is

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Speaker 2: right about where the market opened up, but he's up

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Speaker 2: to like two seventy seven and a half now, and

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Speaker 2: just based on the receiving props, it looks like the

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Speaker 2: market's just assuming that Debo's out, which I think is

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Speaker 2: a little too early to assume that. But Party's you know,

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Speaker 2: passing yard numbers going up, because you know, the Lions

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Speaker 2: are a pass final defense, you know, I think they

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Speaker 2: finished the season number one and rush the defense, and

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Speaker 2: they've allowed three hundred and forty plus passing yards in

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Speaker 2: five straight game now, so could be you know, a

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Speaker 2: party game here. So I get why his prop is

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Speaker 2: a high. I still think it's too high, but either way,

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Speaker 2: he should be ahead of Mahomes just in terms of

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Speaker 2: passing yards, touch on equity. I think the only way

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Speaker 2: Mahomes maybe you know, outscores him is you know, his

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Speaker 2: rushing upside. But other than that, I think Perty is

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Speaker 2: a clear number two QB this week.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I agree, you know it's I was a little

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Speaker 1: surprised because I you know, I am adjusting for Deebo.

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Speaker 1: I mean I more more likely than that he probably

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Speaker 1: will be out. I mean I just didn't look get

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Speaker 1: into it great yesterday. But who knows. But yeah, like

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Speaker 1: you said, this line defense is not good. So you know,

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Speaker 1: even with even with no debo, you still have Kiittle,

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Speaker 1: you still have McCaffrey, and of course you still have

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Speaker 1: Brandon Ayuk, so you could still kind of and we

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Speaker 1: have one of the best schemers in the game, so

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Speaker 1: you should still be able to get it get it

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Speaker 1: done here. Who are you loa?

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Speaker 2: Well, I guess it's jaredy off because he's ranked dead

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Speaker 2: last in my QB rankings at QB four. But he

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Speaker 2: gets it down down grade this week because he's on

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Speaker 2: the road. The weather does look like it's going to

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Speaker 2: be calm at least, so that that could help. Uh,

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Speaker 2: but he should also, you know, face a ton of

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Speaker 2: pressure against the Niners. So that's that's always going to

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Speaker 2: be you know, downgrade for golf anytime he faces a

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Speaker 2: ton of pressure, tens of struggle. So we could see

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Speaker 2: the Lions offense struggle similar to when they were at

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Speaker 2: Baltimore or at Chicago. It could just be a complete

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Speaker 2: collapse like that, but you know it probably will be

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Speaker 2: you know, a pass heavy, trailing game script. So you know,

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Speaker 2: he's still in play in DFS, but just out of

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Speaker 2: the four quarterbacks. Unfortunately, he's the odd man out for me.

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Speaker 1: Yeah. According to PFFS numbers, the Niners last week against

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Speaker 1: a pretty good Green Bay offensive line, they only blitzed

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Speaker 1: Jordan Love twice on thirty five dropbacks, and yet they

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Speaker 1: pressured him forty percent of the time, so they didn't

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Speaker 1: even you know, and that's kind of the classic nine

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Speaker 1: or defense that we've known throughout much of their postseason success.

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Speaker 1: You know, don't have to really send extra rushers to

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Speaker 1: get pressure, and that would I think give GoF some

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Speaker 1: issues just because us. You have one really good receiver,

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Speaker 1: and I'm on Rossain Brown, but if you're dropping seven

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Speaker 1: in a coverage, uh, you know it's gonna you know,

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Speaker 1: other guys are gonna have to step up. It's gonna

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Speaker 1: be a little tougher for him. Yeah, I'm same same here,

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Speaker 1: Well on Jared Goff obviously, all right, let's go prop

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Speaker 1: Europe for what you got.

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Speaker 2: Let's go with Lamar Jackson's rushing yards. I'm just gonna

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Speaker 2: set my line and hear your take, but I'm gonna

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Speaker 2: set it at I realized where the market's at, but

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Speaker 2: I'm going to offer fifty eight and a half rushing

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Speaker 2: yards to you.

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Speaker 1: All right, let me see what the market's at. Just

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Speaker 1: I don't know what the market's at.

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Speaker 2: Market a little bit higher at sixty three and a half,

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Speaker 2: good rising.

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Speaker 1: I have it right there like where you said it's

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Speaker 1: fifty eight. I am going to he does I did notice,

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Speaker 1: and I did. He's one of those quarterbacks kind of

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Speaker 1: like Mahomes. His scramble rate does increase a bit in

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Speaker 1: the postseason, I'll take the over. I'll be on I

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Speaker 1: want to be on the market side. Yeah, yeah, but

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Speaker 1: I mean it's.

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Speaker 2: A good line.

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Speaker 1: I think the mark the market's generally a little high

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Speaker 1: end guys like this. But at the same time, I

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Speaker 1: mean it's Lamar and that Kansas City defense can cover.

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Speaker 1: You know there they have really good cornerbacks on the outside,

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Speaker 1: so you know, if guys aren't open, Lamar is not

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Speaker 1: going to hesitate to take off. So yeah, I'll go

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Speaker 1: I'll take the over on that one.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, that's what I'm showing. Obviously, quite a bit of

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Speaker 2: value on the under. Uh, that would not be a

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Speaker 2: pleasant viewing experience. Fading Lamar Jackson right now with his

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Speaker 2: rushing prop but I saw an interesting breakdown on his

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Speaker 2: running style has changed this yere. He's a little bit

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Speaker 2: more cautious about, you know, taking big hits. Obviously he's

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Speaker 2: still a dynamic runner, but it doesn't look like he's

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Speaker 2: running quite as hard as years pass, So he doesn't

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Speaker 2: have as many explosive runs. But you know, a game

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Speaker 2: like this, maybe all that goes out of the window.

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Speaker 1: I mean, getting back to the ANTSY Championship, I mean, yeah,

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Speaker 1: there's some type of intangible that's gonna happen increased. I

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Speaker 1: don't know exactly how to quantify, but if the markets

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Speaker 1: are ready at sixty three and a half, I mean

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Speaker 1: they know there's people, I mean, they could take a

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Speaker 1: big bet in the under right now, but you know,

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Speaker 1: sod they yeah, they're going to hang at sixty three.

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Speaker 1: It says. It says a little something at least, especially

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Speaker 1: with a shop to a proper wreck like that, that

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Speaker 1: they know, you know it's gonna take. So yeah, and I'm.

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Speaker 2: Thinking for the super Bowl it'll be even higher U

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Speaker 2: and even more reason to justify you know, his prop

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Speaker 2: being high. So this is when I'm kind of ignoring

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Speaker 2: the math, ignoring my model. I'm showing a ton of

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Speaker 2: value on the under, but it's not something I'm gonna bet.

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Speaker 2: If anything, the market is probably closer to reality than

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Speaker 2: my projection. So I tried to get you there.

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Speaker 1: But there's also well so this because I was kind

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Speaker 1: of looking at this too, and there's different things you

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Speaker 1: can adjust to kind of get it there. Like for example,

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Speaker 1: you talk about, you know, trying to avoid the big hits. Well,

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Speaker 1: in important games, what you tend to find is they

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Speaker 1: don't try to avoid the big.

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Speaker 2: Hits as much.

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Speaker 1: So even something as simple as their actual yards per

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Speaker 1: carry can go up because you know, for example, when

202
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Speaker 1: a guy might scramble step out of bounds, now he's uh,

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Speaker 1: you know, he's going and trying to break that tack

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Speaker 1: or where he would slide, or even the design runs,

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Speaker 1: because Lamar gets a lot of you know, he gets

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Speaker 1: design runs, so it's like not just it's not just

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Speaker 1: like he's getting quarterback sneaks where it's always going to

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Speaker 1: be you know, one yard or whatever.

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Speaker 2: So yeah, that's.

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Speaker 1: Something I'll look at, you know, individually for quarterback. Now

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Speaker 1: there's only four, but I do know I did kind

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Speaker 1: of increase him and Mahomes both because I just feel

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Speaker 1: they both are a little more aggressive from the numbers

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Speaker 1: I've seen and found in the playoffs. The scramble rate

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Speaker 1: goes up there, and their yard per carry even on

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Speaker 1: design runs goes up, which I think is just because

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Speaker 1: they're not they're not trying to avoid hits.

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Speaker 3: Yeah.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, if anything, he's been saving himself, you know, conceding

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Speaker 2: a few yards here or there for this moment to

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Speaker 2: go off.

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Speaker 1: And that's why Tyler Hunt, we should be the QB five.

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Speaker 1: I'm just saying, I'm just trying to hear it off

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Speaker 1: for all the prepared, for all the central range of outcomes.

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Speaker 1: Many that is true, all right? Running back top five?

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Speaker 2: Who you got Christian McCaffrey, Isaiah Pachecko, Jamier Gibbs, Dave Montgomery,

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Speaker 2: and Gus Edwards.

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Speaker 1: I got CMC, Pachecko, Gibs, Montgomery, and my man Justice Hill.

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Speaker 1: I was talking about it last week. I was like,

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Speaker 1: you never know what this raven back fits that right,

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Speaker 1: he had more snaps. So I'm actually I'm gonna keeping

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Speaker 1: it at five. I don't know what to do with Edwards,

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Speaker 1: but we'll talk about it. Sure, Yeah, yeah, But who

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Speaker 1: are you high on?

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Speaker 2: So I think this is now the third week in

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Speaker 2: a row. I'm high on Isaiah Pachecko coming off just

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Speaker 2: you know, another solid game on the ground, fifteen carries,

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Speaker 2: ninety seven yards and touchdown. Just looks really good running

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Speaker 2: out there, like every carry is going to be his last.

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Speaker 2: But you know, he does have just one catch for

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Speaker 2: the second straight game, you know, likely due to them

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Speaker 2: just being in positive game scripts and Mahomes probably being

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Speaker 2: more willing to scramble in the playoffs, less willing a checkdown.

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Speaker 2: But I think we can still expect Pachecko maybe to

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Speaker 2: see two degree receptions here. You know, it's potentially a

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Speaker 2: trailing game script, so there could be more passing opportunities,

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Speaker 2: more opportunities for Mahomes to dump it off. And well,

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Speaker 2: you know, the Ravens are a tough matchup. They have

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Speaker 2: allowed a hundred plus yard runner in for the last

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Speaker 2: six games. Granted, if you look at the running backs

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Speaker 2: that have cleared a hundred yards, they've all been elite

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Speaker 2: running backs. But I would consider Pachecko, you know, above

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Speaker 2: above average running back. So there's a path for him

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Speaker 2: to still have a good game here. So that's why,

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Speaker 2: you know, despite the tough matchup, I still think we

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Speaker 2: can trust him as you know, a high end like

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Speaker 2: he is my you know, number two running back. But

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Speaker 2: I like him. Once again, I'm high on pitcheck it

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Speaker 2: this week.

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Speaker 1: Yeah. I think something too that may go a little

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Speaker 1: bit underlooked or overlooked excuse me, is the Chief only

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Speaker 1: ran forty seven offensive plays in that game against Buffalo.

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Speaker 1: So fifteen carries ninety seven yards in a touchdown. It sounds,

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Speaker 1: you know, okay solid, but when you consider that the

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Speaker 1: only ran four seven plays that fifteen for ninety seven

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Speaker 1: and touchdown looks a lot better. So because I go that, like,

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Speaker 1: usually you're gonna run sixty plus plays that would equate

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Speaker 1: to you know, twenty Carris for like one hundred and

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Speaker 1: twenty yards and you know, more than one touchdown of equity.

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Speaker 1: So yeah, like Pacheco as well, Justice Hill for me,

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Speaker 1: just because I think he's that guy, the one guy

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Speaker 1: where there's a lot of uncertainty, you know, like there's

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Speaker 1: he's probably going to be, like you said that six

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Speaker 1: ranked fifth or six ranked guy and a lot of

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Speaker 1: almost everybody's rankings and whatnot. But he did lead the

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Speaker 1: Raven backfield with a fifty seven percent snap rate, Gus

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Speaker 1: Edwards thirty four percent, down Cook thirteen percent. And this

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Speaker 1: is a game it was it was close for the

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Speaker 1: first half, but it's still a game with that Baltimore

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Speaker 1: did win by multiple scores. So to see Hill with

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Speaker 1: that kind of usage just kind of reaffirms what we

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Speaker 1: talked about coming into last week, which is this Baltimore

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Speaker 1: backfor is kind of a little unpredictable, and they've been

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Speaker 1: they've shown the willingness to use Hill in Horton spots. Uh,

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Speaker 1: it kind of feature him, and perhaps it is because

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Speaker 1: he's just more of a dual threat back, you know,

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Speaker 1: Gus Edwards. I think he did have one big receiving

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Speaker 1: play this year, but generally he's not much of a

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Speaker 1: receiving that threat out of the backfield. He'll can he's

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Speaker 1: kind of a dual threat. I don't think Cook is

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Speaker 1: quite up to snuffing up in the you know, the

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Speaker 1: pass protection yet because he didn't play a pass snap

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Speaker 1: in that last game. All the snaps came on running

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Speaker 1: downs late in the game. So I think he'll if

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Speaker 1: he's that one guy that kind of there's some question

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Speaker 1: about you know, there's some uncertainty whereas he could he

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Speaker 1: might be the RB five or RB six, but he

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00:14:34,800 --> 00:14:37,280
Speaker 1: could also be like the RB two or something like

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Speaker 1: that if if he gets another workload like that. So

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Speaker 1: and remember Lions have a committee backfield as well, So

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Speaker 1: you're really just competing with uh if you are the

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Speaker 1: top running back for baltim But you might just be

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Speaker 1: competing with Pacheco there. So it's uh, it's yeah, I

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Speaker 1: think Hill is an interesting one to uh invest in

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Speaker 1: this week. All right, who are you lower?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, Well, I'm with you on Justice Hill. I'm kind

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Speaker 2: of disappointed he's not my RB five like you, but

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Speaker 2: I should flip that because I'm low on Gus Edwards. Yeah,

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Speaker 2: you know, he's only my RB five because he's living

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Speaker 2: off touch on equity. But he's a low ceiling, low floor,

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Speaker 2: you know, touchdown or bust option right now. And as

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Speaker 2: you mentioned, he's not really involved in the pass game.

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Speaker 2: He did have that. I think it was like a

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Speaker 2: ninety yard catch, which like was more than his season

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Speaker 2: total and three of his four seasons or something like.

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Speaker 2: He usually he's usually not involved in the passing game.

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Speaker 2: So a game like this where it should be closer,

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Speaker 2: it's even possible that the Ravens do end up in

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Speaker 2: a trailing game. Script it only bumps up you know,

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Speaker 2: Justice Hill's upside even more. And you know Justice hill

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Speaker 2: had three more rush attempts than Gus Edwards had last game. Yeah,

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Speaker 2: plus Dalvin Cook, you know, he's not a handful a

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Speaker 2: handful of carries and garbage time. He had that one

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Speaker 2: nice run and then kind of you know, it was

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Speaker 2: so so after that. But if there's anybody that Dalvin

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Speaker 2: Cook's going to eat into their usage, it would be

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Speaker 2: Gus Edwards. You know, I could see him mixing in

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Speaker 2: on early down. I think Justice Hill has the receiving

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Speaker 2: role locked down, So yeah, I think Dalvin Cook is

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Speaker 2: going to factor in more than Melvin Gordon did. So

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Speaker 2: that's just again that lowers Gus Edwards floor even more

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Speaker 2: when it's already kind of shaky. So yeah, I'm low

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Speaker 2: on Gus Edwards and high on Justice Hill this week.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I was kicking myself for not betting the under

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Speaker 1: on Edwards carry prop way under because I actually, like

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Speaker 1: just reading the TVs heading into last week, like initially,

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Speaker 1: I was gonna project Cook for you know, like a

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Speaker 1: half a carry, and I'm like, they sound like they

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Speaker 1: actually might down and use him. I didn't, you know.

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Speaker 1: I granted they did use him mostly weight, but I

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Speaker 1: mean that was part of the calculation. So it's yeah,

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Speaker 1: I think you have to kind of factor in Dalvin

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Speaker 1: Cook getting up you know, a few carries here at

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Speaker 1: some point in the game. And then, like you said,

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Speaker 1: Edwards is more likely to lose early down work because

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Speaker 1: in a passing game, it's already Justice Hill. So yeah,

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Speaker 1: and another back kind of like that is David Montgomery.

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Speaker 1: I think he's another back that kind of has that concern.

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Speaker 1: You know, thirty touches for forty seven yards against the Bucks,

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Speaker 1: but now you're talking about a potentially negative game script

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Speaker 1: against the Niners. And you know, I know Montgomery did

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Speaker 1: out snap jam Jamir Gibbs in terms of the pass

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Speaker 1: game last week, but you know that's that'll happen a

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Speaker 1: lot when you have these backs that you know they're

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Speaker 1: gonna play on more early downs and things like that,

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Speaker 1: and you're in a decent game script, that can happen.

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Speaker 1: But if you get behind, that can easily flip. So

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Speaker 1: I'm not reading too much into that. I still think

359
00:17:34,840 --> 00:17:39,320
Speaker 1: Gibbs should should project for more usage in the passing game,

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Speaker 1: and you know the carries are going to be close.

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Speaker 1: Montgomery is going to have a little bit of an

362
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Speaker 1: edge there, but uh, you know, if he doesn't get

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Speaker 1: a touchdown, I just worry about his receiving upside. I

364
00:17:48,680 --> 00:17:51,879
Speaker 1: worry about, you know, him getting enough carries because I

365
00:17:51,920 --> 00:17:55,240
Speaker 1: only haven't projected about about twelve carries or so, and

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Speaker 1: that you know that there's a lower floor with that too.

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Speaker 1: So he's a he's the other guy, kind of like

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Speaker 1: Gus Edwards, who I'd be a little bit worried about here.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, how about the Lions trolling us with Craig Reynolds

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Speaker 2: getting the one yard touchdown plunge?

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Speaker 1: Oh man, I know right, yeah, And so I mean

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Speaker 1: that's not he's and he's the Dalvin Cook in this situation.

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Speaker 1: So yeah, all right, let's see for the prop let's

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Speaker 1: go with Gus versus Justice Hill. I'm gonna say, let's

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Speaker 1: do their touches. I'll make I'll make Justice Hill the favorite.

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Speaker 1: So you get Gus plus a half a touch. Let's see,

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Speaker 1: so I have I would guess you still have Gus

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Speaker 1: for more if you have his army.

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Speaker 2: Five a half ten and a half for Gus with

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Speaker 2: low confidence. Yeah yeah, and you said Justice Hill's minus

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00:18:39,960 --> 00:18:43,159
Speaker 2: a half. Yeah, yep, yeah, I'll take Gus there. I

382
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Speaker 2: don't feel great about it, but I can't pass up

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00:18:45,760 --> 00:18:48,320
Speaker 2: value when I see it. That's a good one though. Yeah.

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Speaker 1: No, it's the toughest one because I have it. I

385
00:18:50,960 --> 00:18:53,919
Speaker 1: have it pretty even, I think. But I could go.

386
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Speaker 1: I could go either way. It's really it's hard to

387
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Speaker 1: distribute your carries now because it's nice.

388
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Speaker 2: Last week, last week, Dalvin like a half a carry.

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Speaker 2: Where are you at with him? Now? Well?

390
00:19:03,320 --> 00:19:04,720
Speaker 1: I had no I had him more than I was

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Speaker 1: gonna projective for half car I had him for like

392
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Speaker 1: maybe like two two and a half carries. Now I

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Speaker 1: have him.

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Speaker 2: Oh shit, are you even higher this week?

395
00:19:14,760 --> 00:19:18,280
Speaker 1: Probs? Yeah, now I have him for about four so

396
00:19:18,600 --> 00:19:21,800
Speaker 1: oh damn. Okay, yeah, because I because not only I

397
00:19:21,840 --> 00:19:24,320
Speaker 1: think that, Yeah, there's the potential in him playing only

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00:19:24,320 --> 00:19:27,520
Speaker 1: in like you know, when they're ahead, But the way

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00:19:27,520 --> 00:19:30,720
Speaker 1: they were talking sounds like they might kind of he's

400
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Speaker 1: just that third running back that they kind of you know,

401
00:19:32,880 --> 00:19:35,840
Speaker 1: like maybe not quite as much as Keaton Mitchell, but

402
00:19:35,880 --> 00:19:39,359
Speaker 1: definitely Yeah, in the game plan like to get non

403
00:19:39,480 --> 00:19:42,960
Speaker 1: zero snaps. So yeah, I have I have him getting

404
00:19:42,960 --> 00:19:44,800
Speaker 1: about twenty percent of the yeah.

405
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Speaker 2: Early right, yeah, because right he didn't he didn't run

406
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Speaker 2: a route and on obvious running situations.

407
00:19:52,280 --> 00:19:54,000
Speaker 1: Yeah, and that could change too, but still yeah, I

408
00:19:54,000 --> 00:19:57,040
Speaker 1: don't think he could get much passing downward. This podcast

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Speaker 1: eight hundred gambler all right, wide receiver who got in

416
00:20:31,119 --> 00:20:31,720
Speaker 1: the top five.

417
00:20:32,520 --> 00:20:35,960
Speaker 2: I'm on rold S Brown, Brandon, Ayuk, Deebo Samuel for

418
00:20:36,040 --> 00:20:38,440
Speaker 2: now they're saying is fifty to fifty. So I'm projecting

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00:20:38,600 --> 00:20:42,160
Speaker 2: like he's playing Rashid Rice and Jay Flowers.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I got Saint Brown, Ayuk Rice Devo four. But yeah,

421
00:20:46,600 --> 00:20:50,400
Speaker 1: he'll he'll go down if he's officially out Jay Flowers.

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Speaker 1: And then let's see who would buy five? Yeah, who

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00:20:52,920 --> 00:20:57,160
Speaker 1: would be the five of It's kind of scary Reynolds. Yeah,

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00:20:57,359 --> 00:21:01,000
Speaker 1: I'm Jamo. Yeah, well, I mean same yeah.

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00:21:01,040 --> 00:21:09,000
Speaker 2: Times that that Reynolds prop the Montgomery shot block, they

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00:21:09,040 --> 00:21:10,919
Speaker 2: had to call back that twenty five yard catch to

427
00:21:10,960 --> 00:21:15,200
Speaker 2: Reynolds that was tilting and Jared Goff was ignoring Reynolds

428
00:21:16,040 --> 00:21:19,480
Speaker 2: wide open numerous times, and then he finally saw Hi

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Speaker 2: when he was opening the back of the in zone

430
00:21:20,800 --> 00:21:23,520
Speaker 2: for that nine yard score. But Reynolds could have easily

431
00:21:23,560 --> 00:21:26,399
Speaker 2: had you know, like four plus catches for eighty plus yards.

432
00:21:26,400 --> 00:21:29,480
Speaker 2: It was infuriating, like how open he was and golf

433
00:21:29,680 --> 00:21:32,040
Speaker 2: golf just you know, he's just looking for his first

434
00:21:32,119 --> 00:21:34,480
Speaker 2: or second read and that's it. But he had Reynolds

435
00:21:34,480 --> 00:21:35,919
Speaker 2: open at times if you wanted to.

436
00:21:36,880 --> 00:21:39,399
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean that when something like that happens, they

437
00:21:39,480 --> 00:21:40,840
Speaker 1: usually look at the table and then like the next

438
00:21:40,840 --> 00:21:42,840
Speaker 1: week they'll make it more of a point yeah, to

439
00:21:42,880 --> 00:21:45,000
Speaker 1: look at him. So yeah, I think good bounce back

440
00:21:45,040 --> 00:21:45,680
Speaker 1: spot for him.

441
00:21:45,760 --> 00:21:49,679
Speaker 2: But who are you high on brand ayukmn? He's my

442
00:21:49,720 --> 00:21:52,080
Speaker 2: wide receiver too, But I think now's the time to

443
00:21:52,119 --> 00:21:54,359
Speaker 2: invest in him. You know, he's coming off a down

444
00:21:54,359 --> 00:21:57,480
Speaker 2: game three catches for thirty two yards this season. I

445
00:21:57,480 --> 00:22:01,040
Speaker 2: don't think he's had like back to back bad game.

446
00:22:01,119 --> 00:22:03,040
Speaker 2: So he's, dude, a bounce back in a big way,

447
00:22:04,680 --> 00:22:07,800
Speaker 2: you know. And assuming you know, Debo you know, might

448
00:22:07,840 --> 00:22:10,280
Speaker 2: be limited, might be ruled out to shoulder injury, so

449
00:22:10,359 --> 00:22:13,160
Speaker 2: he you know, he could be rock Pertty's clear number

450
00:22:13,160 --> 00:22:16,680
Speaker 2: one target. But it's just a great matchup against pass

451
00:22:16,720 --> 00:22:19,920
Speaker 2: funnel lines defense. They've allowed a wide receiver to clear

452
00:22:20,440 --> 00:22:24,080
Speaker 2: one hundred and forty yards in five straight games, and

453
00:22:24,119 --> 00:22:26,600
Speaker 2: if there's anybody that's gonna do that, it's Brandon Hayuk.

454
00:22:26,800 --> 00:22:30,040
Speaker 2: So sign me up for you know, a brand heye

455
00:22:30,119 --> 00:22:30,920
Speaker 2: ceiling game here.

456
00:22:31,840 --> 00:22:34,840
Speaker 1: Yeah, I totally agree. I think this is gyhuge spot

457
00:22:34,840 --> 00:22:38,320
Speaker 1: and if Devo's out even more so, yeah, uh for me.

458
00:22:38,480 --> 00:22:40,840
Speaker 1: Rashi Rice, he had his first down game in a minute,

459
00:22:40,920 --> 00:22:43,520
Speaker 1: just four catches forty seven yards. But as I mentioned,

460
00:22:43,600 --> 00:22:46,359
Speaker 1: Kannessity ran only forty seven plays. They were also, you know,

461
00:22:46,400 --> 00:22:48,720
Speaker 1: in decent games scrape most of the games, so this

462
00:22:48,800 --> 00:22:51,239
Speaker 1: could be one. They are probably three and a half

463
00:22:51,280 --> 00:22:54,160
Speaker 1: point underdogs at Baltimore, so not in major but could

464
00:22:54,160 --> 00:22:56,040
Speaker 1: be in a little more of a negative game script.

465
00:22:56,080 --> 00:22:58,440
Speaker 1: I think that would help Rashee Rice. And they're gonna throw.

466
00:22:58,440 --> 00:23:01,080
Speaker 1: You know, they're gonna throw more than twenty five passes

467
00:23:01,640 --> 00:23:03,760
Speaker 1: that they threw in that last game, both games, so

468
00:23:04,520 --> 00:23:06,879
Speaker 1: I don't think you want to get too down on

469
00:23:06,960 --> 00:23:09,600
Speaker 1: him kind of thought. Maybe it was a Kelsey time

470
00:23:09,600 --> 00:23:12,560
Speaker 1: for Kelsey to bounce back. He did that, but I think,

471
00:23:12,600 --> 00:23:14,800
Speaker 1: you know, this Kansasity offense at this point going to

472
00:23:14,880 --> 00:23:17,840
Speaker 1: be very concentrated. But Checko Kelsey and Rashiet Rice. So

473
00:23:18,000 --> 00:23:19,680
Speaker 1: when they run more than forty seven plains is I

474
00:23:19,680 --> 00:23:22,000
Speaker 1: think they'll do this week. He should bounce back, So

475
00:23:22,119 --> 00:23:26,359
Speaker 1: like him as a top three option. Who are you, Lowa?

476
00:23:27,280 --> 00:23:31,359
Speaker 2: I'm low on Odell Beckham. You know, he only caught

477
00:23:31,359 --> 00:23:34,720
Speaker 2: one pass for twelve yards last week. Now, just you know,

478
00:23:34,840 --> 00:23:37,240
Speaker 2: he has one catch in three of the last four games,

479
00:23:38,160 --> 00:23:40,320
Speaker 2: and I thought his playing time would go up, you know,

480
00:23:40,359 --> 00:23:42,640
Speaker 2: I yeah, I been kind of like limited a him

481
00:23:43,280 --> 00:23:46,000
Speaker 2: to unleast you're in the playoffs. But for some reason,

482
00:23:46,040 --> 00:23:48,200
Speaker 2: his route participation fell all the way down to twenty

483
00:23:48,200 --> 00:23:52,120
Speaker 2: eight percent last week. Yep, so he's just more likely

484
00:23:52,160 --> 00:23:54,320
Speaker 2: to have a floor game and limited playing time. Granted,

485
00:23:54,560 --> 00:23:56,640
Speaker 2: he could still go off for you know, a few

486
00:23:56,680 --> 00:23:59,560
Speaker 2: catches eighty yards and a touchdown on that so I

487
00:23:59,600 --> 00:24:02,239
Speaker 2: think he's probably still in play in tournaments. But I

488
00:24:02,320 --> 00:24:05,560
Speaker 2: was just baffled why his playing time went down. You know,

489
00:24:05,680 --> 00:24:08,680
Speaker 2: Bateman and Aguilar were operating as the number two and

490
00:24:08,720 --> 00:24:12,920
Speaker 2: three receivers, so yeah, so I just think he's more

491
00:24:13,040 --> 00:24:16,400
Speaker 2: likely to hit his low floor at this point. But yeah,

492
00:24:16,440 --> 00:24:18,440
Speaker 2: it's kind of weird. Do you have any idea why

493
00:24:18,600 --> 00:24:19,960
Speaker 2: he was down to twenty percent.

494
00:24:21,640 --> 00:24:23,000
Speaker 1: He's got to be hurt or he's got to not

495
00:24:23,080 --> 00:24:26,000
Speaker 1: be completely healthy, because i mean, remember he took the

496
00:24:26,080 --> 00:24:28,159
Speaker 1: year off, came back. I mean he's still coming off

497
00:24:28,200 --> 00:24:31,240
Speaker 1: of major injuries on the other side of thirty. And

498
00:24:31,400 --> 00:24:35,000
Speaker 1: you know, the year started. The first game that they play,

499
00:24:35,359 --> 00:24:38,480
Speaker 1: he was in every single pass play like a hundred

500
00:24:38,520 --> 00:24:41,359
Speaker 1: even more than Jay Flower. Next week went to sixty

501
00:24:41,400 --> 00:24:44,119
Speaker 1: four percent, he got hurt, came back, it was sixty

502
00:24:44,119 --> 00:24:46,840
Speaker 1: six percent, and then so for the season, it's kind

503
00:24:46,880 --> 00:24:49,480
Speaker 1: of been The average has been sixty, but it's been

504
00:24:49,680 --> 00:24:52,080
Speaker 1: it's been a lot lower than that in some spots,

505
00:24:52,119 --> 00:24:53,639
Speaker 1: and it's been hard to predict. So it's one of

506
00:24:53,680 --> 00:24:57,119
Speaker 1: those things where I'm not I'm still using like when

507
00:24:57,119 --> 00:24:59,760
Speaker 1: I'm projecting, I'm still going mostly closer to his season

508
00:24:59,720 --> 00:25:01,679
Speaker 1: one rate, which is fifty eight percent. Like I'm not

509
00:25:01,680 --> 00:25:04,920
Speaker 1: going to necessarily wait, like weigh that twenty eight too

510
00:25:04,960 --> 00:25:08,720
Speaker 1: much for because if you look at the three Ravens

511
00:25:08,760 --> 00:25:11,760
Speaker 1: after Zay, so it's Odell, Bateman, and Aguar, all three

512
00:25:11,800 --> 00:25:15,159
Speaker 1: of them average exactly fifty eight percent around participation for

513
00:25:15,200 --> 00:25:17,320
Speaker 1: the year. So it's like in a situation like that,

514
00:25:17,359 --> 00:25:19,439
Speaker 1: We've talked about this many times where there's like this

515
00:25:19,560 --> 00:25:22,600
Speaker 1: week to week variants that's higher than what you would

516
00:25:22,600 --> 00:25:26,240
Speaker 1: expect with natural randomness, I am going to kind of

517
00:25:26,280 --> 00:25:29,679
Speaker 1: just use like, yeah, I'm not going to really like

518
00:25:29,720 --> 00:25:31,560
Speaker 1: try to try to catch lightning in a bottle with

519
00:25:31,640 --> 00:25:34,200
Speaker 1: the last games projection being waited way too much more.

520
00:25:34,480 --> 00:25:36,679
Speaker 1: It'll be waited a little more, but not you know,

521
00:25:36,720 --> 00:25:38,639
Speaker 1: that's the way I would for some receiver. That's just

522
00:25:38,680 --> 00:25:40,879
Speaker 1: something I've kind of found doing this like week in

523
00:25:40,880 --> 00:25:44,080
Speaker 1: a week out. But yeah, that is it is concerning.

524
00:25:44,080 --> 00:25:47,639
Speaker 1: It seemed like him and Bateman kind of kind of

525
00:25:48,280 --> 00:25:51,320
Speaker 1: split that number two role. And then because they're you know,

526
00:25:51,359 --> 00:25:54,240
Speaker 1: Bateman seventy two percent, Odell twenty eight percent, that adds

527
00:25:54,320 --> 00:25:57,080
Speaker 1: up to exactly, you know, one hundred percent, and it's

528
00:25:57,160 --> 00:26:02,320
Speaker 1: and then Aguar was the number three. So yeah, I mean, yeah,

529
00:26:02,359 --> 00:26:05,520
Speaker 1: if anyone, if anyone, if anyone who is from a

530
00:26:05,560 --> 00:26:08,240
Speaker 1: Baltimore area beat writer listening to this with any intel

531
00:26:08,320 --> 00:26:11,760
Speaker 1: or any just theories, you should have tweet us because yeah,

532
00:26:11,960 --> 00:26:13,959
Speaker 1: this is this is one that's tough for us. Been

533
00:26:14,040 --> 00:26:16,600
Speaker 1: kind of been kind of tough all year. But yeah,

534
00:26:16,640 --> 00:26:17,840
Speaker 1: at this point, I don't really know what to do

535
00:26:17,880 --> 00:26:20,160
Speaker 1: but kind of just equal them out for all three

536
00:26:20,200 --> 00:26:22,520
Speaker 1: of them, all three of these guys. After say, at

537
00:26:22,520 --> 00:26:28,560
Speaker 1: this then Douverne is getting healthier, so who knows, but yeah,

538
00:26:28,760 --> 00:26:31,480
Speaker 1: I would. And do you have any idea where Beckham

539
00:26:31,560 --> 00:26:33,320
Speaker 1: was getting those snaps? Was he was he like mostly

540
00:26:33,359 --> 00:26:35,440
Speaker 1: like a red zone guy like Hudgens. I couldn't really

541
00:26:35,560 --> 00:26:39,080
Speaker 1: haven't rewatched the film yet, so I'm not sure.

542
00:26:39,119 --> 00:26:44,159
Speaker 2: But yeah, I didn't notice anything specific until after the

543
00:26:44,160 --> 00:26:45,800
Speaker 2: game when I saw his routes run. I thought I

544
00:26:45,800 --> 00:26:49,359
Speaker 2: saw him out there enough, But yeah, I need to

545
00:26:49,359 --> 00:26:50,800
Speaker 2: go back and see what was going on with that.

546
00:26:50,920 --> 00:26:53,040
Speaker 2: Maybe they were saving him for the red zone or

547
00:26:53,800 --> 00:26:57,680
Speaker 2: yeah what supermun but saving him for the Super Bowl.

548
00:26:58,280 --> 00:27:01,639
Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, I agree. I don't I don't know what.

549
00:27:01,680 --> 00:27:04,320
Speaker 1: I don't know what to do with him. For me,

550
00:27:04,480 --> 00:27:09,440
Speaker 1: it's justin Watson, uh, just simply because it's like kind

551
00:27:09,440 --> 00:27:12,840
Speaker 1: of mentioned it. I think this Kansasity attack will be concentrated.

552
00:27:12,880 --> 00:27:16,840
Speaker 1: Watson fell to forty four percent route participation last week,

553
00:27:16,880 --> 00:27:18,840
Speaker 1: which is you know, he's been in the sixties for

554
00:27:18,880 --> 00:27:22,680
Speaker 1: the most part. You know, now sky Moore he could

555
00:27:23,080 --> 00:27:26,639
Speaker 1: come back this week. Seem like MVS overtook Watson again

556
00:27:26,960 --> 00:27:28,920
Speaker 1: as that you know, deep threat. They're kind of split

557
00:27:28,920 --> 00:27:32,440
Speaker 1: in the role period. But Watson's the guy for much

558
00:27:32,440 --> 00:27:34,320
Speaker 1: of the year, like, all right, he's the clear number

559
00:27:34,359 --> 00:27:37,399
Speaker 1: two receiver for Casey and now I think you know

560
00:27:37,720 --> 00:27:39,879
Speaker 1: it's it's back up in the air again. Hardman's kind

561
00:27:39,880 --> 00:27:43,639
Speaker 1: of drawing nearly even with Watson as well. So you know,

562
00:27:43,720 --> 00:27:45,440
Speaker 1: not a guy I think many people were going to

563
00:27:45,480 --> 00:27:47,960
Speaker 1: be on anyway. But uh yeah, I have him little

564
00:27:48,000 --> 00:27:50,200
Speaker 1: lower than I've had him the past few weeks. It's

565
00:27:50,240 --> 00:27:52,480
Speaker 1: kind of trending, trending to more of it, even split

566
00:27:53,040 --> 00:27:57,000
Speaker 1: behind Rice with all those other guys. All right, uh, Prop,

567
00:27:57,880 --> 00:27:59,520
Speaker 1: what you got, Well, I want.

568
00:27:59,400 --> 00:28:01,520
Speaker 2: To do a fun odell one. I was gonna do

569
00:28:01,600 --> 00:28:04,040
Speaker 2: routes run rate over under fifty four and a half percent,

570
00:28:04,520 --> 00:28:06,679
Speaker 2: but I just gotta tell on yours I have a

571
00:28:07,240 --> 00:28:09,439
Speaker 2: way more fun one than that. This is I'm not

572
00:28:09,520 --> 00:28:11,760
Speaker 2: just gonna set a meetian out there. There's a median

573
00:28:11,760 --> 00:28:14,520
Speaker 2: and prop out there, go look for yourself. I'm going

574
00:28:14,600 --> 00:28:16,720
Speaker 2: to set a line where do you think he's gonna

575
00:28:16,760 --> 00:28:20,000
Speaker 2: finish between these two yardages? Oh okay, So I have

576
00:28:20,119 --> 00:28:21,800
Speaker 2: this being like a coin flip, and he's the guy

577
00:28:21,800 --> 00:28:24,159
Speaker 2: that's it's he's such a wide range of outcomes. I

578
00:28:24,160 --> 00:28:27,920
Speaker 2: think this is an important problem to consider, so will

579
00:28:27,960 --> 00:28:32,479
Speaker 2: he finish between twelve and thirty eight yards? So if

580
00:28:32,520 --> 00:28:35,960
Speaker 2: he finishes with twelve or thirty eight, that's included in. Yes,

581
00:28:36,680 --> 00:28:39,560
Speaker 2: if he gets eleven or thirty nine, that's outside of

582
00:28:39,560 --> 00:28:40,880
Speaker 2: the bucket, if that makes sense.

583
00:28:41,080 --> 00:28:45,360
Speaker 1: So eleven and a half to thirty eight and a half. Yeah, essentially, Okay,

584
00:28:47,000 --> 00:28:50,120
Speaker 1: who should see And you're saying it's fifty to fifty,

585
00:28:50,240 --> 00:28:53,160
Speaker 1: you have forty roughly, Yeah, roughly fifteen fifty.

586
00:28:53,960 --> 00:28:58,680
Speaker 2: I simulated it. I saw it, and that's that's what

587
00:28:58,760 --> 00:29:01,600
Speaker 2: I concluded. Is eleven and a half to thirty eight

588
00:29:01,640 --> 00:29:04,520
Speaker 2: and a half would be like a fifty to fifty prop.

589
00:29:05,200 --> 00:29:09,920
Speaker 1: I'm gonna say that's that's good. That's good. He's been

590
00:29:10,000 --> 00:29:13,920
Speaker 1: the season, it's been sixty percent. Oh in between those Yeah,

591
00:29:14,480 --> 00:29:17,640
Speaker 1: but let's see he's been. Yeah, he's been one, two

592
00:29:17,640 --> 00:29:21,360
Speaker 1: three the last four games he's been. Yes, between those two.

593
00:29:22,400 --> 00:29:25,120
Speaker 1: I'm gonna go, But I'm gonna go now because I

594
00:29:25,120 --> 00:29:26,600
Speaker 1: do think it's a good I think I do think

595
00:29:26,640 --> 00:29:29,240
Speaker 1: it is about fifty to fifty he's been the last four.

596
00:29:29,320 --> 00:29:31,560
Speaker 1: So this is more of a gut kind of gut play.

597
00:29:32,160 --> 00:29:35,160
Speaker 1: At some point I think he either either like he's

598
00:29:35,280 --> 00:29:39,000
Speaker 1: just hurt and doesn't Barry plays or they like he

599
00:29:39,080 --> 00:29:41,320
Speaker 1: popped for a big play, which I think is probably

600
00:29:41,440 --> 00:29:43,720
Speaker 1: like we here, so yeah, I'll go, I'll go. No,

601
00:29:43,840 --> 00:29:44,800
Speaker 1: but that is a good one.

602
00:29:45,000 --> 00:29:48,520
Speaker 2: Yeah. I remember, like twenty years ago or whatever, when

603
00:29:48,520 --> 00:29:50,280
Speaker 2: I first started get in the props, they actually had

604
00:29:50,320 --> 00:29:50,840
Speaker 2: props like this.

605
00:29:51,640 --> 00:29:53,600
Speaker 1: They should do, they should do well.

606
00:29:53,640 --> 00:29:56,520
Speaker 2: They have the bands, right, but do they have something

607
00:29:56,560 --> 00:29:58,600
Speaker 2: like this where it's like minus one ten both ways?

608
00:29:58,640 --> 00:29:59,280
Speaker 2: I don't think so.

609
00:30:00,120 --> 00:30:00,520
Speaker 3: Oh no.

610
00:30:00,640 --> 00:30:02,840
Speaker 1: They usually it's like you can pick between between the

611
00:30:02,840 --> 00:30:06,120
Speaker 1: two ranges at different like at whatever the odds they

612
00:30:06,160 --> 00:30:08,520
Speaker 1: set for the like they'll have like yeah, ten to

613
00:30:08,760 --> 00:30:11,040
Speaker 1: ten to thirty yards, thirty to fifty something like that,

614
00:30:12,320 --> 00:30:14,720
Speaker 1: but not just like yes or no for a specific

615
00:30:14,840 --> 00:30:18,040
Speaker 1: r right right right, all right, tight end top five?

616
00:30:18,080 --> 00:30:21,640
Speaker 2: We got all right? Let me uh, I could probably

617
00:30:21,640 --> 00:30:24,200
Speaker 2: just go off the top of my head. Travis Kelcey,

618
00:30:24,520 --> 00:30:29,560
Speaker 2: George Kittle, Sama Porta, Mark Andrews and Isaiah likely both

619
00:30:29,600 --> 00:30:30,680
Speaker 2: inside my top five.

620
00:30:31,160 --> 00:30:34,760
Speaker 1: Yeah, that was same same here if and if if

621
00:30:34,960 --> 00:30:38,160
Speaker 1: you know what, if Andrews doesn't play, then I'd have

622
00:30:38,200 --> 00:30:42,400
Speaker 1: no Gray is my Titan five? Yeah, I mean it's

623
00:30:42,400 --> 00:30:45,320
Speaker 1: only fourteen, who are you higher.

624
00:30:46,160 --> 00:30:49,440
Speaker 2: I'm high on Travis Kelcey. You know, we we saw

625
00:30:49,520 --> 00:30:52,400
Speaker 2: him finally break up of his slump last week, which

626
00:30:52,440 --> 00:30:54,080
Speaker 2: which I thought he would. I mean, he was way

627
00:30:54,120 --> 00:30:57,200
Speaker 2: too cheap in DFS, had the five catches seventy five

628
00:30:57,280 --> 00:31:01,080
Speaker 2: yards two touchdowns. That's now a twenty six percent target

629
00:31:01,160 --> 00:31:04,120
Speaker 2: right in both playoff games now, so Holmes is clearly

630
00:31:04,880 --> 00:31:07,480
Speaker 2: leaning on him. You know, there's been a lot of

631
00:31:07,520 --> 00:31:10,840
Speaker 2: games where Kelsey's target right was below twenty percent, which

632
00:31:10,880 --> 00:31:13,400
Speaker 2: was concerning. But I think we're we're getting the old

633
00:31:13,480 --> 00:31:16,520
Speaker 2: Kelsey back at least for the playoffs. And you know,

634
00:31:16,560 --> 00:31:18,880
Speaker 2: it's it's a tougher matchup against the Ravens, but there's

635
00:31:18,920 --> 00:31:21,800
Speaker 2: really no easy matchup this weekend. So you know, he's

636
00:31:21,840 --> 00:31:24,040
Speaker 2: he's a clear tight end one, whereas you know, the

637
00:31:24,080 --> 00:31:26,520
Speaker 2: past couple of weeks it's been shaky, but I think

638
00:31:26,520 --> 00:31:29,680
Speaker 2: he reclaimed, you know, being the true number one overall

639
00:31:29,720 --> 00:31:31,360
Speaker 2: tight end right now.

640
00:31:31,600 --> 00:31:34,080
Speaker 1: Yeah, absolutely, you know, I mean a lot of it

641
00:31:34,120 --> 00:31:36,400
Speaker 1: was just the drops in that in that first playoff game,

642
00:31:37,560 --> 00:31:41,280
Speaker 1: But for me, it's Kittle. I think with Deebo potentially

643
00:31:41,360 --> 00:31:43,600
Speaker 1: out and talk about this last week, but for whatever reason,

644
00:31:43,640 --> 00:31:47,400
Speaker 1: Kittle just has really positive splits favoring being at home.

645
00:31:47,880 --> 00:31:50,520
Speaker 1: And if you look at his numbers this year, he

646
00:31:50,560 --> 00:31:53,920
Speaker 1: has cleared sixty seven receiving yards in all but one

647
00:31:54,480 --> 00:31:57,160
Speaker 1: of his home games, and he's always done that in

648
00:31:57,400 --> 00:32:00,600
Speaker 1: three of his road games. So almost all of his

649
00:32:00,640 --> 00:32:05,200
Speaker 1: good games this year have come at home. All of

650
00:32:05,240 --> 00:32:09,200
Speaker 1: his touchdowns except one have come at home, so and

651
00:32:09,240 --> 00:32:11,040
Speaker 1: he's had so six of the seven touchdowns have come

652
00:32:11,080 --> 00:32:13,280
Speaker 1: at home. And this is a you know, a Lions

653
00:32:13,320 --> 00:32:16,120
Speaker 1: team that, as we talked about, their defense, just not

654
00:32:16,320 --> 00:32:18,400
Speaker 1: very good. I think this is a good i UK spot.

655
00:32:18,440 --> 00:32:21,160
Speaker 1: But Sam will more than probably more than likely to

656
00:32:21,240 --> 00:32:24,280
Speaker 1: be out. So I think Kittle it will be that

657
00:32:24,320 --> 00:32:26,440
Speaker 1: you know, number two receiver. It should be in a

658
00:32:26,440 --> 00:32:28,640
Speaker 1: good spot. Four catches eighty when yards in a touchdown

659
00:32:29,160 --> 00:32:31,040
Speaker 1: last week. I think he could do something similar, maybe

660
00:32:31,040 --> 00:32:33,360
Speaker 1: even gets more targets than the seventy had last week.

661
00:32:33,480 --> 00:32:36,520
Speaker 1: If Debo's out, Yeah, who are you all on it?

662
00:32:36,600 --> 00:32:37,040
Speaker 1: Tight end?

663
00:32:37,800 --> 00:32:41,480
Speaker 2: Isaiah likely? I'm kind of recycling your take from last week,

664
00:32:41,520 --> 00:32:45,800
Speaker 2: where right, yea Mark Andrews is potentially returning this week,

665
00:32:45,880 --> 00:32:48,600
Speaker 2: so the best backup tight end in the entire league,

666
00:32:48,640 --> 00:32:52,959
Speaker 2: Isaiah likely gets an obvious downgrade. You know, maybe Andrews

667
00:32:53,200 --> 00:32:55,600
Speaker 2: won't be able to return to his usual full time role,

668
00:32:55,680 --> 00:32:58,520
Speaker 2: so likely could still see more work than he normally

669
00:32:58,520 --> 00:33:01,520
Speaker 2: would when Andrews is healthy, So I could still end

670
00:33:01,600 --> 00:33:04,760
Speaker 2: up putting decent numbers here. So he might be like

671
00:33:05,680 --> 00:33:08,200
Speaker 2: spend up to be controlling and playing dfs. But either

672
00:33:08,240 --> 00:33:10,360
Speaker 2: way would have to imagine Andrews is going to be

673
00:33:10,760 --> 00:33:14,680
Speaker 2: in on obvious passing situations and or in the red zone,

674
00:33:14,760 --> 00:33:17,280
Speaker 2: which you know are the most valuable snaps to be in.

675
00:33:17,400 --> 00:33:20,040
Speaker 2: So you know, likely gets a big down right here.

676
00:33:20,040 --> 00:33:21,760
Speaker 2: But again we have to see if Andrews will actually

677
00:33:21,760 --> 00:33:23,240
Speaker 2: suit up before we can say that.

678
00:33:23,840 --> 00:33:27,000
Speaker 1: Yeah, and I mean I think they were on the

679
00:33:27,080 --> 00:33:31,240
Speaker 1: telecast they did say like essentially like it was fact like, hey,

680
00:33:31,240 --> 00:33:33,520
Speaker 1: they're going to get him back for the championship, So

681
00:33:33,640 --> 00:33:36,280
Speaker 1: I mean I'm guessing they you know, they held him

682
00:33:36,280 --> 00:33:38,720
Speaker 1: out as a precaution. It seemed like he was practicing

683
00:33:38,800 --> 00:33:39,440
Speaker 1: last week, so.

684
00:33:39,560 --> 00:33:42,360
Speaker 2: Yeah, he had a full practice in there. Yeah, it

685
00:33:42,400 --> 00:33:44,680
Speaker 2: was more safe than sorry. Again, they have the best

686
00:33:44,720 --> 00:33:45,760
Speaker 2: backup tight end in the league.

687
00:33:45,760 --> 00:33:50,240
Speaker 1: That kind of helps exactly. Speaking of backup tight ends,

688
00:33:50,760 --> 00:33:53,200
Speaker 1: the Lions signed zach Ertz. Will see how that goes.

689
00:33:53,280 --> 00:33:56,200
Speaker 1: But I am well a bit well on Sam Laporta.

690
00:33:56,240 --> 00:33:59,120
Speaker 1: I just think you know, this is a tough match up. Anytime,

691
00:33:59,280 --> 00:34:01,800
Speaker 1: you know, talked about this with San Francisco, they you

692
00:34:01,840 --> 00:34:04,960
Speaker 1: gotta worry about Fred Warner and Burke's and all those

693
00:34:05,000 --> 00:34:08,719
Speaker 1: linebackers over the middle. Their safeties are good. It's just

694
00:34:08,760 --> 00:34:11,759
Speaker 1: a really tough team to put up big numbers for

695
00:34:11,840 --> 00:34:13,560
Speaker 1: your tight end unless you're in and you know they're

696
00:34:13,600 --> 00:34:16,320
Speaker 1: just in prevent defense. They finished a year number four

697
00:34:17,040 --> 00:34:21,920
Speaker 1: in DVA against tight ends according to FTN. So uh Laporta,

698
00:34:22,280 --> 00:34:24,640
Speaker 1: I think we both liked them last week ended up

699
00:34:24,680 --> 00:34:28,640
Speaker 1: coming through with nine catches on eleven targets for sixty

700
00:34:28,680 --> 00:34:32,400
Speaker 1: five yards. That may be a little tougher to accomplish

701
00:34:32,600 --> 00:34:36,160
Speaker 1: this week. I think, especially with San Francisco, you know,

702
00:34:36,239 --> 00:34:39,680
Speaker 1: able to get pressure rushing only four, You're gonna have

703
00:34:39,800 --> 00:34:43,400
Speaker 1: guys in coverage maybe maybe even you know, pay a

704
00:34:43,400 --> 00:34:46,480
Speaker 1: little bit of extra attention or Laporta and just that

705
00:34:46,600 --> 00:34:49,879
Speaker 1: inside in general with a Monra and Laporta and try

706
00:34:49,920 --> 00:34:52,320
Speaker 1: to funnel the ball to you know, Jamo and Reynolds,

707
00:34:52,360 --> 00:34:54,839
Speaker 1: which we know GoF is a little more uncomfortable. Uh,

708
00:34:54,880 --> 00:34:57,239
Speaker 1: you know, throwing deep and outside than he is over

709
00:34:57,239 --> 00:35:00,640
Speaker 1: the middle. So yeah, laporta little loward. Still he's my

710
00:35:00,680 --> 00:35:05,080
Speaker 1: tight end three, but just not expecting necessarily an above average,

711
00:35:05,239 --> 00:35:08,360
Speaker 1: above expectation type of performance this week for Sam laporta

712
00:35:08,640 --> 00:35:14,680
Speaker 1: all right, tight end prop let's see, well, let's just

713
00:35:14,680 --> 00:35:18,440
Speaker 1: go Kelsey because that's always Everyone's always like, what's Kelsey

714
00:35:18,480 --> 00:35:26,160
Speaker 1: gonna do? So we'll just go receiving yardy, let's go

715
00:35:26,280 --> 00:35:27,240
Speaker 1: sixty four and a half.

716
00:35:27,640 --> 00:35:31,440
Speaker 2: Oh, I'll take the under, right. I had it like

717
00:35:31,520 --> 00:35:34,440
Speaker 2: sixty and a half. The markets at sixty two to

718
00:35:34,560 --> 00:35:38,319
Speaker 2: sixty three and a half. Remember the first round it

719
00:35:38,360 --> 00:35:40,000
Speaker 2: was fifty five and a half. We were like, that

720
00:35:40,080 --> 00:35:42,560
Speaker 2: seems a bit low. I floated sixty seven and a half.

721
00:35:42,600 --> 00:35:43,839
Speaker 2: I think, yeah, I floated like.

722
00:35:43,800 --> 00:35:45,600
Speaker 1: The norm of my projection number. And yeah, I was

723
00:35:45,880 --> 00:35:48,040
Speaker 1: surprised that one anyway way over.

724
00:35:48,200 --> 00:35:51,480
Speaker 2: It was just weird that the books were typically, I Kelsey,

725
00:35:51,480 --> 00:35:53,400
Speaker 2: you want to over inflate it because everybody's gonna be

726
00:35:53,400 --> 00:35:55,280
Speaker 2: on his over. But it's been such a weird season

727
00:35:55,280 --> 00:35:58,839
Speaker 2: where maybe people were fading him. Yeah, that turned out

728
00:35:58,840 --> 00:36:00,520
Speaker 2: to not to be smart. So I think I think

729
00:36:00,520 --> 00:36:04,080
Speaker 2: the market's probably in line where it should be right now, hm.

730
00:36:04,600 --> 00:36:07,200
Speaker 2: But yeah, like I just say, it's probably a couple

731
00:36:07,239 --> 00:36:08,920
Speaker 2: of yards too high, but I do think that's a

732
00:36:08,920 --> 00:36:09,440
Speaker 2: good number.

733
00:36:09,800 --> 00:36:15,360
Speaker 1: He hasn't had fewer than seventy one yards in a

734
00:36:15,400 --> 00:36:19,399
Speaker 1: postseason game since February second of twenty twenty, the Super

735
00:36:19,440 --> 00:36:23,279
Speaker 1: Bowl against the Niners. So you're there, you go, they're

736
00:36:23,280 --> 00:36:24,279
Speaker 1: against you. I'll tell you that.

737
00:36:24,960 --> 00:36:28,440
Speaker 2: Well, he is getting older. There were some signs of decline,

738
00:36:28,520 --> 00:36:30,799
Speaker 2: so he's not the same old Kelsey. But again he's

739
00:36:30,800 --> 00:36:34,359
Speaker 2: still probably the best title league still, So yeah, it's

740
00:36:34,400 --> 00:36:37,880
Speaker 2: hard to fade him. And to be clear, I'm probably

741
00:36:37,920 --> 00:36:40,840
Speaker 2: not taking his under in his prop market either, but

742
00:36:41,120 --> 00:36:44,920
Speaker 2: I think given the choice, I would lean under here apparently.

743
00:36:45,080 --> 00:36:47,920
Speaker 1: Right, that's gonna do it for our Championship Week NFL

744
00:36:47,920 --> 00:36:51,520
Speaker 1: Player Projections episode here of the Action Network podcast presented

745
00:36:51,719 --> 00:36:55,160
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746
00:36:55,200 --> 00:36:58,080
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747
00:36:58,280 --> 00:37:00,400
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748
00:37:00,400 --> 00:37:02,759
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749
00:37:02,800 --> 00:37:05,440
Speaker 1: be sure to check out my weekly betting preview episode

750
00:37:05,480 --> 00:37:11,120
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751
00:37:11,120 --> 00:37:13,720
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752
00:37:13,760 --> 00:37:17,840
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753
00:37:17,840 --> 00:37:20,680
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756
00:37:25,600 --> 00:37:28,120
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757
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758
00:37:47,280 --> 00:37:51,120
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